premise: The horse used to be an indispensable part of human life and it was used for transport, war, industry and for fun. In order to support societys dependence on the horse, whole industries grew up around it. There were sectors to breed them, shoe them, saddle them, teach people to ride them, feed them, care for them and finally to dispose of them at the end of their useful lives. The industrial revolution and in particular the invention of the internal combustion engine was the end of the horses central role in peoples lives. Today, it seems there is a further threat to the horse that is causing a drop in its numbers. The American Horse Council (AHC) recently addressed this decline at its national issues forum. Leaders from various stakeholders spoke about the decrease in registered horses and the impact on their segment of the horse industry. There has been an enthusiastic response to the forums discussions. People have been talking about decline in horse numbers for some time, however, this is the first time the issue has been discussed in a comprehensive fashion said AHC president Jay Hickey. It was a very good program and attendees now have a better comprehension of current conditions and what actions are being taken. Tim Capps, Director of the Equine industry program at the University of Louisville, gave the opening address at the forum and tried to pinpoint the reasons for the drop in todays numbers of registered horses. The economy was cited by Capps as the single largest factor, but there are probably several other factors as well. Capps believes the horse industry was in a bubble that peaked about six years ago, which was similar to an earlier bubble in 1980s. The bubble burst and caused the resulting damage to the horse industry. Capps also cites the roles of increasing cost of horse ownership and participation in shows, concerns about welfare, and increased competition for leisure and gambling dollars. In addition, Capps explained that there has been a decline in the number of young horses and registered horses over the last several years that is impacting all breeds and segments of the industry and the leaders of the industry are aware of this decline and are taking actions. Capps also noted that this is not the first such decline in the number of horses, and in previous instances there was later a strong rebound in numbers. Examples of this were most notable during the Great Depression and in the mid 1980s. Capps pointed out the horse industry often parallels the wider economy and current situation closely mirrors the impact of Great Depression had on the industry. In the past, the growth following such declines was often propelled by individuals outside the industry becoming interested and investing in the industry, noted Capps. He believes it will again be important to look beyond current horse industry participants to promote growth in the industry now and in the future. Jim Gagliano, Jockey Club President, reported on the effects of the drop in numbers on the horse racing industry. The thoroughbred foal crop has been declining and is responsible for a drop in number of starts, number of horses in the field, the number of owners, and the number of racing days. This in turn has led to a drop in turnover for all sectors in the industry and makes the industry a less attractive one for new entrants and existing businesses. Forum attendees also heard what actions are being taken by the racing industry. Gagliano said that organisations are working to promote the best races and make better use of social media and online resources to attract a younger demographic and develop new owners. Following up on the need for more and better marketing, Patti Colbert of PCE Enterprises has come up with the Time to Ride initiative. This ambitious national campaign and contest targets the goal of giving 100,000 new people a horse experience in the following calendar year. Colbert reported that Time to Ride had accomplished its initial goal to sign up 1,000 stables, instructors, new participants and others in the horse community to host events. Colbert enthusiastically explained the next step. These hosts will now compete for $100,000 in cash and prizes and several have already hosted their first event. The forum also heard from associated service providers who are also being impacted. Jeff Blea, president of the American Association of Equine Practitioners (AAEP) talked about the impact on the veterinarian community and how fewer horses mean less work for horse vets. Blea additionally spoke about the AAEP programs to help veterinarian create long-term and successful relationships with horse owners and support an increase in horse breeding. The forum has clearly identified that the problem is not only a decline in the number of registered horses, but also a decline in horse owners and people participating in horse activities. However, there is also good news as industry organisations are taking actions both individually and collectively. Hickey, explains why people are not overly worried just yet. The industry also has one great advantage: the enduring appeal of the horse. With continued effort on the part of the entire horse community, the industry will come out of the current economic climate even more robust.
hypothesis: The horse industry has reacted well to previous drops in the number of horses.