It depends on which numbers you quote but Energy Information Administration EIA data indicates that US withdrawals did indeed peak at 24 1 Tcf in 1973 and then declined to 18 7 Tcf in 1983 However after that dip they began to rise again and reached a new peak of 24 5 Tcf in 2007 Preliminary data indicates that 2008 production will be about 8 higher than 2007 mostly because of unconventional shale gas production As far as Canadian production is concerned Canadian regulatory authorities have been warning for some years that production is not backed by adequate reserves to sustain it in the long term The National Energy Board NEB indicates in its latest study Short term Canadian Natural Gas Deliverability 2008 2010 that production appears to have plateaued in the 2000 2007 time frame and its expectation is for a decline in production unless prices increase drastically However shale gas is the wild card in this deck It has accounted for most of the recent US increase in production and its potential in Canada has not been evaluated although some people believe it is very high