If it s not a tropical wave now it s not going to be one Waves only come from Africa Look at the surface analysis That cluster of showers and thunderstorms doesn t even appear Nothing coming from this The tropical wave off the coast of Texas looks good but it s too close to land and moving inland The wave near Nicaragua is out of room Not much convection associated with the other waves Notice that wind shear is increasing over much of the Atlantic also notice that wind shear is decreasing in Ophelia s path Shear is 80 kts in the mid Atlantic That s incredible Shear in the East Atlantic in general is very high right now Not to mention all the dry Saharan air in the east Atlantic look at this That ought to pull the plug on all the Cape Verde hurricane wannabes out there I smell a quiet period and that s a good smell