Characterizing and Mitigating Intraday Variability: Reconstructing Source Structure in Accreting Black Holes with mm-VLBI
Authors: Broderick Avery E. , Gold Roman , Georgiev Boris , Pesce Dominic W. , Tiede Paul , Ni Chunchong , Moriyama Kotaro , Akiyama Kazunori , Alberdi Antxon , Alef Walter , Algaba Juan Carlos , Anantua Richard , Asada Keiichi , Azulay Rebecca , Bach Uwe , Baczko Anne-Kathrin , Ball David , Baloković Mislav , Barrett John , Bauböck Michi , Benson Bradford A. , Bintley Dan , Blackburn Lindy , Blundell Raymond , Bouman Katherine L. , Bower Geoffrey C. , Boyce Hope , Bremer Michael , Brinkerink Christiaan D. , Brissenden Roger , Britzen Silke , Broguiere Dominique , Bronzwaer Thomas , Bustamante Sandra , Byun Do-Young , Carlstrom John E. , Ceccobello Chiara , Chael Andrew , Chan Chi-kwan , Chatterjee Koushik , Chatterjee Shami , Chen Ming-Tang , Chen 陈 Yongjun 永军 , Cheng Xiaopeng , Cho Ilje , Christian Pierre , Conroy Nicholas S. , Conway John E. , Cordes James M. , Crawford Thomas M. , Crew Geoffrey B. , Cruz-Osorio Alejandro , Cui 崔 Yuzhu 玉竹 , Davelaar Jordy , De Laurentis Mariafelicia , Deane Roger , Dempsey Jessica , Desvignes Gregory , Dexter Jason , Dhruv Vedant , Doeleman Sheperd S. , Dougal Sean , Dzib Sergio A. , Eatough Ralph P. , Emami Razieh , Falcke Heino , Farah Joseph , Fish Vincent L. , Fomalont Ed , Ford H. Alyson , Fraga-Encinas Raquel , Freeman William T. , Friberg Per , Fromm Christian M. , Fuentes Antonio , Galison Peter , Gammie Charles F. , García Roberto , Gentaz Olivier , Goddi Ciriaco , Gómez-Ruiz Arturo I. , Gómez José L. , Gu 顾 Minfeng 敏峰 , Gurwell Mark , Hada Kazuhiro , Haggard Daryl , Haworth Kari , Hecht Michael H. , Hesper Ronald , Heumann Dirk , Ho 何 Luis C. 子山 , Ho Paul , Honma Mareki , Huang 黄 Chih-Wei L. 磊 , Huang Lei , Hughes David H. , Ikeda Shiro , Impellizzeri C. M. Violette , Inoue Makoto , Issaoun Sara , James David J. , Jannuzi Buell T. , Janssen Michael , Jeter Britton , Jiang 江 Wu 悟 , Jiménez-Rosales Alejandra , Johnson Michael D. , Jorstad Svetlana , Joshi Abhishek V. , Jung Taehyun , Karami Mansour , Karuppusamy Ramesh , Kawashima Tomohisa , Keating Garrett K. , Kettenis Mark , Kim Dong-Jin , Kim Jae-Young , Kim Jongsoo , Kim Junhan , Kino Motoki , Koay Jun Yi , Kocherlakota Prashant , Kofuji Yutaro , Koch Patrick M. , Koyama Shoko , Kramer Carsten , Kramer Michael , Krichbaum Thomas P. , Kuo Cheng-Yu , Bella Noemi La , Lauer Tod R. , Lee Daeyoung , Lee Sang-Sung , Leung Po Kin , Levis Aviad , Li 李 Zhiyuan 志远 , Lico Rocco , Lindahl Greg , Lindqvist Michael , Lisakov Mikhail , Liu 刘 Jun 俊 , Liu Kuo , Liuzzo Elisabetta , Lo Wen-Ping , Lobanov Andrei P. , Loinard Laurent , Lonsdale Colin J. , Lu 路 Ru-Sen 如森 , Mao 毛 Jirong 基荣 , Marchili Nicola , Markoff Sera , Marrone Daniel P. , Marscher Alan P. , Martí-Vidal Iván , Matsushita Satoki , Matthews Lynn D. , Menten Karl M. , Michalik Daniel , Mizuno Izumi , Mizuno Yosuke , Moran James M. , Moscibrodzka Monika , Müller Cornelia , Mus Alejandro , Musoke Gibwa , Myserlis Ioannis , Nadolski Andrew , Nagai Hiroshi , Nagar Neil M. , Nakamura Masanori , Narayan Ramesh , Narayanan Gopal , Natarajan Iniyan , Nathanail Antonios , Fuentes Santiago Navarro , Neilsen Joey , Neri Roberto , Noutsos Aristeidis , Nowak Michael A. , Oh Junghwan , Okino Hiroki , Olivares Héctor , Ortiz-León Gisela N. , Oyama Tomoaki , Palumbo Daniel C. M. , Paraschos Georgios Filippos , Park Jongho , Parsons Harriet , Patel Nimesh , Pen Ue-Li , Piétu Vincent , Plambeck Richard , PopStefanija Aleksandar , Porth Oliver , Pötzl Felix M. , Prather Ben , Preciado-López Jorge A. , Pu Hung-Yi , Ramakrishnan Venkatessh , Rao Ramprasad , Rawlings Mark G. , Raymond Alexander W. , Rezzolla Luciano , Ricarte Angelo , Ripperda Bart , Roelofs Freek , Rogers Alan , Ros Eduardo , Romero-Cañizales Cristina , Roshanineshat Arash , Rottmann Helge , Roy Alan L. , Ruiz Ignacio , Ruszczyk Chet , Rygl Kazi L. J. , Sánchez Salvador , Sánchez-Argüelles David , Sánchez-Portal Miguel , Sasada Mahito , Satapathy Kaushik , Savolainen Tuomas , Schloerb F. Peter , Schonfeld Jonathan , Schuster Karl-Friedrich , Shao Lijing , Shen 沈 Zhiqiang 志强 , Small Des , Sohn Bong Won , SooHoo Jason , Souccar Kamal , Sun 孙 He 赫 , Tazaki Fumie , Tetarenko Alexandra J. , Tilanus Remo P. J. , Titus Michael , Torne Pablo , Traianou Efthalia , Trent Tyler , Trippe Sascha , Turk Matthew , van Bemmel Ilse , van Langevelde Huib Jan , van Rossum Daniel R. , Vos Jesse , Wagner Jan , Ward-Thompson Derek , Wardle John , Weintroub Jonathan , Wex Norbert , Wharton Robert , Wielgus Maciek , Wiik Kaj , Witzel Gunther , Wondrak Michael F. , Wong George N. , Wu 吴 Qingwen 庆文 , Yamaguchi Paul , Yoon Doosoo , Young André , Young Ken , Younsi Ziri , Yuan 袁 Feng 峰 , Yuan 袁 Ye-Fei 业飞 , Zensus J. Anton , Zhao Guang-Yao , Zhang Shuo , Zhao 赵 Shan-Shan 杉杉 
Published: May 2022

Abstract
The extraordinary physical resolution afforded by the Event Horizon Telescope has opened a window onto the astrophysical phenomena unfolding on horizon scales in two known black holes, M87* and Sgr A*. However, with this leap in resolution has come a new set of practical complications. Sgr A* exhibits intraday variability that violates the assumptions underlying Earth aperture synthesis, limiting traditional image reconstruction methods to short timescales and data sets with very sparse (u, v) coverage. We present a new set of tools to detect and mitigate this variability. We develop a data-driven, model-agnostic procedure to detect and characterize the spatial structure of intraday variability. This method is calibrated against a large set of mock data sets, producing an empirical estimator of the spatial power spectrum of the brightness fluctuations. We present a novel Bayesian noise modeling algorithm that simultaneously reconstructs an average image and statistical measure of the fluctuations about it using a parameterized form for the excess variance in the complex visibilities not otherwise explained by the statistical errors. These methods are validated using a variety of simulated data, including general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations appropriate for Sgr A* and M87*. We find that the reconstructed source structure and variability are robust to changes in the underlying image model. We apply these methods to the 2017 EHT observations of M87*, finding evidence for variability across the EHT observing campaign. The variability mitigation strategies presented are widely applicable to very long baseline interferometry observations of variable sources generally, for which they provide a data-informed averaging procedure and natural characterization of inter-epoch image consistency.