bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
The Transition from Practical to Intrinsic Predictability of Midlatitude Weather
Authors: Selz Tobias , Riemer Michael , Craig George C. 
Published: May 2022

Abstract
This study investigates the transition from current practical predictability of midlatitude weather to its intrinsic limit. For this purpose, estimates of the current initial condition uncertainty of 12 real cases are reduced in several steps from 100% to 0.1% and propagated in time with a global numerical weather prediction model (ICON at 40 km resolution) that is extended by a stochastic convection scheme to better represent error growth from unresolved motions. With the provision that the perfect model assumption is sufficiently valid, it is found that the potential forecast improvement that could be obtained by perfecting the initial conditions is 4–5 days. This improvement is essentially achieved with an initial condition uncertainty reduction by 90% relative to current conditions, at which point the dominant error growth mechanism changes: With respect to physical processes, a transition occurs from rotationally driven initial error growth to error growth dominated by latent heat release in convection and due to the divergent component of the flow. With respect to spatial scales, a transition from large-scale up-amplitude error growth to a very rapid initial error growth on small scales is found. Reference experiments with a deterministic convection scheme show a 5%–10% longer predictability, but only if the initial condition uncertainty is small. These results confirm that planetary-scale predictability is intrinsically limited by rapid error growth due to latent heat release in clouds through an upscale-interaction process, while this interaction process is unimportant on average for current levels of initial condition uncertainty.

Significance Statement
Weather predictions provide high socioeconomic value and have been greatly improved over the last decades. However, it is widely believed that there is an intrinsic limit to how far into the future the weather can be predicted. Using numerical simulations with an innovative representation of convection, we are able to confirm the existence of this limit and to demonstrate which physical processes are responsible. We further provide quantitative estimates for the limit and the remaining improvement potential. These results make clear that our current weather prediction capabilities are not yet maxed out and could still be significantly improved with advancements in atmospheric observation and simulation technology in the upcoming decades.
Decadal Variation of Predictability of the Indian Ocean Dipole during 1880–2017 Using an Ensemble Prediction System
Authors: Song Xunshu , Tang Youmin , Li Xiaojing , Liu Ting 
Published: May 2022

Abstract
In this study, we investigate both the decadal variation of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) prediction skill and possible sources of this decadal variation. We use an ensemble long-term retrospective forecast experiment covering 1880–2017 that utilizes the Community Earth System Model (CESM). We find that the decadal variation of the IOD prediction skill is significant and that it varies with the lead time. We also find that the decadal variation of the IOD prediction skill for the target season of boreal autumn determines that for all initial conditions, regardless of the lead months. For short lead times, the decadal variations of the IOD strength and of the IOD precursor in the initial month of July are the major factors influencing the IOD prediction skill. This occurs because the IOD events are in the developmental phase, and the stronger IOD signal in the initial conditions leads to better predictions. For long lead times, the decadal variation of remote forcing by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the ENSO precursor signal in the IOD influence the IOD prediction skill more significantly than do the strengths of the ENSO or the IOD. In addition, the analysis also indicated that the period with a low ENSO–IOD relationship has low predictability, not only because the ENSO little influence on IOD but also because the model biasedly overestimates the ENSO–IOD relationship.

Significance Statement
The Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) has strong climatic effects, both around the Indian Ocean and globally, which have strong impacts on human life and economic development. It is important to be able to predict IOD events accurately to mitigate those impacts. Here, we conducted a 138-yr prediction experiment using a state-of-the-art climate model to confirm the existence of a decadal variation in IOD predictability and to identify factors that influence the IOD prediction skill. The most important factors that influence the decadal variation of IOD prediction skill differ for 3-month and 6-month lead times, and additional studies will be necessary to clarify the specific factors responsible for these differences.
Vertical Wavelengths of Downward Phase Propagating Gravity Waves Determined by Vertical Fluctuation of Idealized Radiosonde Balloons
Authors: Qian Tingting , Wei Junhong , Sun Yongqiang , Lu Yinghui , Ruppert James H. 
Published: May 2022

Abstract
This paper investigates the limitation in calculating the vertical wavelength of downward phase propagating gravity waves from the vertical fluctuation of idealized radiosonde balloons in a homogeneous background environment. The wave signals are artificially observed by an idealized weather balloon with a constant ascent rate. The apparent vertical wavelengths obtained from the moving radiosonde balloon are compared to the true vertical wavelength obtained from the dispersion relation, both in the no-wind case and in the constant-zonal-flow case. The node method and FFT method are employed to calculate the apparent vertical wavelength from the sounding profile. The difference between the node apparent vertical wavelength and the true vertical wavelength is attributed to the fact that the ascent rate of the balloon and the downward phase speed induce a strong Doppler-shifting bias on the apparent vertical wavelength from the observation records. The difference between the FFT apparent vertical wavelength and the true vertical wavelength includes both the Doppler-shifting bias and the mathematical bias. The extent to which the apparent vertical wavelength is reliable is discussed. The Coriolis parameter has negligible effects on the comparison between the true vertical wavelength and the apparent one.

Significance Statement
The purpose of this study is to discuss the Doppler-shifting bias induced by the ascent rate of radiosonde balloon when measuring the apparent vertical wavelengths of downward phase propagating gravity waves from the vertical fluctuation of idealized radiosonde balloons. This is an easily omitted problem. However, it can dramatically affect the gravity wave diagnosis when the ascent rate profile is treated as a quasi-instantaneous data. Further, such uncertainty could lead to remarkable errors in other derived wave propagating properties (e.g., phase velocity, which is the key input parameter in gravity wave parameterization).
Assessment of Two Stochastic Cloud Subcolumn Generators Using Observed Fields of Vertically Resolved Cloud Extinction
Authors: Oreopoulos Lazaros , Cho Nayeong , Lee Dongmin , Lebsock Matthew , Zhang Zhibo 
Published: May 2022

Abstract
We evaluate two stochastic subcolumn generators used in GCMs to emulate subgrid cloud variability enabling comparisons with satellite observations and simulations of certain physical processes. Our evaluation necessitated the creation of a reference observational dataset that resolves horizontal and vertical cloud variability. The dataset combines two CloudSat cloud products that resolve two-dimensional cloud optical depth variability of liquid, ice, and mixed phase clouds when blended at ~200 m vertical and ~ 2 km horizontal scales. Upon segmenting the dataset to individual “scenes”, mean profiles of the cloud fields are passed as input to generators that produce scene-level cloud subgrid variability. The assessment of generator performance at the scale of individual scenes and in a mean sense is largely based on inferred joint histograms that partition cloud fraction within predetermined combinations of cloud top pressure – cloud optical thickness ranges. Our main finding is that both generators tend to underestimate optically thin clouds, while one of them also tends to overestimate some cloud types of moderate and high optical thickness. Associated radiative flux errors are also calculated by applying a simple transformation to the cloud fraction histogram errors, and are found to approach values almost as high as 3 W m−2 for the cloud radiative effect in the shortwave part of the spectrum.
Transition Paths of North Atlantic Deep Water
Authors: Miron P. , Beron-Vera F. J. , Olascoaga M. J. 
Published: May 2022

Abstract
Recently introduced in oceanography to interpret the near-surface circulation, transition path theory (TPT) is a methodology that rigorously characterizes ensembles of trajectory pieces flowing out from a source last and into a target next, i.e., those that most productively contribute to transport. Here we use TPT to frame, in a statistically more robust fashion than earlier analysis, equatorward routes of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) in the subpolar North Atlantic. TPT is applied on all available RAFOS and Argo floats in the area by means of a discretization of the Lagrangian dynamics described by their trajectories. By considering floats at different depths, we investigate transition paths of NADW in its upper (UNADW) and lower (LNADW) layers. We find that the majority of UNADW transition paths sourced in the Labrador and southwestern Irminger Seas reach the western side of a target arranged zonally along the southern edge of the subpolar North Atlantic domain visited by the floats. This is accomplished in the form of a well-organized deep boundary current (DBC). LNADW transition paths sourced west of the Reykjanes Ridge reveal a similar pattern, while those sourced east of the ridge are found to hit the western side of the target via a DBC and also several other places along it in a less organized fashion, indicating southward flow along the eastern and western flanks of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Naked-eye inspection of trajectories suggest generally more diffused equatorward NADW routes. A source-independent dynamical decomposition of the flow domain into analogous backward-time basins of attraction, beyond the reach of direct inspection of trajectories, reveals a much wider influence of the western side of the target for UNADW than for LNADW. For UNADW, the average expected duration of the pathways from the Labrador and Irminger Seas was found to be of 2–3 years. For LNADW, the duration was found to be influenced by the Reykjanes Ridge, being as long as 8 years from the western side of the ridge and of about 3 years on average from its eastern side.
C-Reactive Protein/Albumin Ratio as a Novel Predictor of Contrast Induced Nephropathy in Patients With Stable Angina Pectoris
Authors: Altıparmak Ibrahim Halil , Tanrıverdi Zülkif , Taşcanov Mustafa Begenç , Güngören Fatih , Biçer Asuman , Fedai Halil , Toprak Kenan , Elmas Ali Nizami , Demirbağ Recep 
Published: May 2022

The relationship between C-reactive protein (CRP) to albumin ratio (CAR) and contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) in patients with acute coronary syndrome has been reported. However, the relevance of CAR in patients with stable angina pectoris (SAP) has not been clarified. We hypothesized that CAR might predict the development of CIN in patients with SAP undergoing coronary angiography (CAG). Patients ( n = 554) with SAP who underwent CAG were included in the study. CIN was defined as a ≥25% increase in serum creatinine compared with baseline value within 72 h of CAG. Participants were divided into two groups: CIN ( n = 87) and non-CIN ( n = 467). Age, CRP, CAR, mean corpuscular volume (MCV), urea, uric acid, contrast medium volume, the percent of percutaneous coronary intervention were significantly greater, whereas albumin and high-density lipoprotein were significantly lower in the CIN group than non-CIN group ( p < .05, for all). Multivariate analysis showed that CAR was the only independent predictor for CIN (odds ratio = 7.065, 95% confidence interval (CI); 3.279–15.221, p < .001). Receiver operating characteristic ROC analysis showed that a CAR ≥ 0.1164 could predict CIN (sensitivity of 71% and specificity of 72%; area under curve = 0.736; 95% CI: 0.677–0.795, p < .001). CAR was significantly greater in patients who developed CIN and this independently predicted CIN.
When Is Mass Prophylaxis Cost-Effective for Epidemic Control? A Comparison of Decision Approaches
Authors: Malloy Giovanni S. P. , Brandeau Margaret L. 
Published: May 2022

Background For certain communicable disease outbreaks, mass prophylaxis of uninfected individuals can curtail new infections. When an outbreak emerges, decision makers could benefit from methods to quickly determine whether mass prophylaxis is cost-effective. We consider 2 approaches: a simple decision model and machine learning meta-models. The motivating example is plague in Madagascar. Methods We use a susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) epidemic model to derive a decision rule based on the fraction of the population infected, effective reproduction ratio, infection fatality rate, quality-adjusted life-year loss associated with death, prophylaxis effectiveness and cost, time horizon, and willingness-to-pay threshold. We also develop machine learning meta-models of a detailed model of plague in Madagascar using logistic regression, random forest, and neural network models. In numerical experiments, we compare results using the decision rule and the meta-models to results obtained using the simulation model. We vary the initial fraction of the population infected, the effective reproduction ratio, the intervention start date and duration, and the cost of prophylaxis. Limitations We assume homogeneous mixing and no negative side effects due to antibiotic prophylaxis. Results The simple decision rule matched the SEIR model outcome in 85.4% of scenarios. Using data for a 2017 plague outbreak in Madagascar, the decision rule correctly indicated that mass prophylaxis was not cost-effective. The meta-models were significantly more accurate, with an accuracy of 92.8% for logistic regression, 95.8% for the neural network model, and 96.9% for the random forest model. Conclusions A simple decision rule using minimal information about an outbreak can accurately evaluate the cost-effectiveness of mass prophylaxis for outbreak mitigation. Meta-models of a complex disease simulation can achieve higher accuracy but with greater computational and data requirements and less interpretability. Highlights We use a susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed model and net monetary benefit to derive a simple decision rule to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of mass prophylaxis. We use the example of plague in Madagascar to compare the performance of the analytically derived decision rule to that of machine learning meta-models trained on a stochastic dynamic transmission model. We assess the accuracy of each approach for different combinations of disease dynamics and intervention scenarios. The machine learning meta-models are more accurate predictors of mass prophylaxis cost-effectiveness. However, the simple decision rule is also accurate and may be a preferred substitute in low-resource settings.
Effect of Anterolateral Structure Augmentation on Graft Maturity After Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction: A Clinical and MRI Follow-up of 2 Years
Authors: Ye Zipeng , Xu Junjie , Chen Jiebo , Cho Eunshinae , Cai Jiangyu , Wu Chenliang , Wu Xiulin , Li Ziyun , Xie Guoming , Zhao Jinzhong , Dong Shikui 
Published: May 2022

Background: Anterolateral structure augmentation (ALSA) has been applied to prevent residual rotatory instability and lower clinical failure rates after anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction (ACLR); however, the effect of combined ALSA on the maturity of ACL grafts remains unknown. Purpose: To evaluate the graft maturity and patient–reported outcomes in patients who underwent double–bundle ACLR with or without ALSA. Study Design: Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: A total of 92 patients who underwent double–bundle ACLR between January 2016 and July 2019 were included in the present study—44 patients with isolated ACLR (ACLR group) and 48 patients with combined ACLR and ALSA (ALSA group). Demographic characteristics, intraoperative findings, and patient–reported outcomes were prospectively collected. On postoperative magnetic resonance imaging at the 2–year follow–up, the signal–to–noise quotient (SNQ) values were separately calculated for 6 sections of the ACL graft, including the femoral intratunnel graft (FTG), intra–articular graft (IAG), and tibial intratunnel graft (TTG) of the anteromedial bundle (AMB) and the posterolateral bundle (PLB). Superior graft maturity was usually indicated by lower SNQ values. Results: The rates of return to preinjury sports were 47.9% and 27.3% in the ALSA and ACLR groups, respectively (difference, 20.6% [95% CI, 1.3%-40%]; P = .042). The AMB demonstrated significantly lower SNQ values in the ALSA group than in the ACLR group (FTG, 7.04 ± 3.65 vs 9.44 ± 4.51 [ P = .006]; IAG, 6.62 ± 4.19 vs 8.77 ± 5.92 [ P = .046]; TTG, 6.93 ± 3.82 vs 8.75 ± 4.55 [ P = .040]). The SNQ values were significantly lower in the ALSA group for 2 of the 3 sections of the PLB (IAG, 7.73 ± 4.61 vs 9.88 ± 5.61 [ P = .047]; TTG, 5.88 ± 3.10 vs 8.57 ± 4.32 [ P = .001]). Partial lateral meniscectomy was correlated with higher SNQ values of the TTG in the AMB (β = 0.27; P = .009) and the PLB (β = 0.25; P = .008), with both groups pooled. Higher body mass index, smaller ACL graft–Blumensaat line angles, larger AMB graft diameters, and lower postoperative Tegner scores were also associated with inferior maturity in specific regions of the ACL graft. Conclusion: A combination of ACLR and ALSA is a desirable option to improve the maturity of ACL grafts for patients who are young or expected to return to pivoting sports. Meanwhile, further investigations with higher levels of evidence and longer periods of follow–up are warranted.
Parametric study and multi-criteria optimization during turning of X210Cr12 steel using the desirability function and hybrid Taguchi-WASPAS method
Authors: Safi Khaoula , Yallese Mohamed Athmane , Belhadi Salim , Mabrouki Tarek , Chihaoui Salim 
Published: May 2022

The present study examines the machining of a cold work tool steel (X210Cr12) using a triple chemical vapor deposition coated carbide tool (Al2O3/TiC/TiCN). The paper is focused on an experimental investigation as well as a modeling and optimization of the working cutting parameters in relationship with the studied material. For that, first, a set of experimental tests were built in order to evaluate the effect of cutting parameters (r, Vc, f, and ap) on the output parameters, namely surface roughness (Ra), cutting force (Fz), insert flank wear (Vb), and 3D roughness distribution. In a second step, a Taguchi L16 (4^3 2^1) design of experiment (DoE) was exploited with the aim to develop a modeling of output working parameters based on the response surface methodology. An optimization of the cutting conditions was performed using the desirability function (DF) approach and the hybrid Taguchi-weighted aggregate sum product assessment method. The desired objective is to obtain optimal cutting regime corresponding to the simultaneous minimization of parameters Ra and Fz, and maximization of material removal rate. The results found show that the factor f influences Ra with 42.55% and that parameter ap affects parameters Fz and Pc with 67.55 and 60.88%, respectively. For the DF and WASPAS methods, the optimal regimes selected is r = 1.6 mm, Vc = 366 m/min, ap = 0.17 mm, f = 0.16 mm/rev and r = 1.6 mm, Vc = 180 m/min, ap = 0.3 mm, and f = 0.08 mm/rev, respectively. The proposed work concerns all mechanical manufacturing companies, as it provides the necessary information on the optimal working conditions of the tool/material pair.
Mathematical investigation of syngas fired burner with various configurations in the BERL combustor
Authors: Medhat Moataz , Khalil Essam E , Haridy Hatem , Yehia Mohamed A 
Published: May 2022

This paper discusses the effect of burning syngas in a configuration similar to that of the BERL (Burner Engineering Research Laboratory) 300 KW swirl-stabilized combustor which has previously been used with methane as a fuel. Due to the axisymmetric configuration, only 15° from the burner angle is studied with periodic boundary. The model adopts RANS (Reynolds Averaged Navier–Stokes) technique including a realizable k-ε turbulent scheme. The non-premixed combustion model used is based on applying flamelet concept. The study shows that the structure of the flame is affected with changing the burner quarl angle and the inlet air swirl number. The detailed parametric study of this synthetic fuel in the BERL paradigm relates easily to the accumulated experimental and numerical studies available in this configuration and then acquiring add noval value to the present work. The study also shows the presence of different recirculation zones, one of which is central recirculation zone and an external recirculation zone. When increasing quarl angle, the central recirculation zone is shifted outward and the turbulent interaction between the central fuel jet and the recirculation zone induces small vortices between these two flow patterns. On the other hand, the effect of flue gas recirculation and air staging into the burner on the reduction of NOx formation is discussed. The flue gas data show that FGR reduces NOx emissions significantly while having no influence on flame stability, total combustion efficiency, or CO emissions. Changes in fuel composition are also taken into account. The results reveal that when the hydrogen blending in the fuel increases, the temperature rises.
Flexural Properties of 3D-printed hierarchical-sinusoidal corrugated core sandwich panels with natural fiber reinforced skins
Authors: Shahkarami Mahvash , Zeinedini Afshin 
Published: May 2022

The main aim of this study is to investigate the effect of printed hierarchical-sinusoidal corrugated core patterns and the load direction on the flexural properties of the cotton/epoxy composites sandwich panels. For the cores, six sinusoidal corrugated structures were considered. Besides, possible arrangements (transvers or longitudinal wave, arch downward or upward) of the sinusoidal corrugated cores with respect to the loading direction were considered. Totally, 72 cores were fabricated using a 3D printer and poly lactic acid material. It was observed that for the transverse arrangement, the flexural strength of sandwich panels is significantly improved by changing the pattern from the simple form to the hierarchical patterns. In contrast, for the longitudinal pattern, improvement in the flexural properties was not obtained by changing the core pattern. It was also manifested that corrugated core arrangement has remarkable effect on the mechanical properties of the sandwich panels. For the transverse pattern core panel, the maximum values of normalized face-sheet bending strength (FBS), core shear ultimate strength (CSUS) and energy absorption were obtained as 7.17 MPa/kg, 223.91 MPa/kg and 114.56 J/kg, respectively. Besides, for the longitudinal pattern core panel, the maximum values of FBS, CSUS and energy absorption were obtained as 7.86 MPa/kg, 245.78 MPa/kg and 330.75 J/kg, respectively. Comparing the obtained results with the available data in the literature manifested that the flexural properties of the corrugated core sandwich structures are significantly improved by changing its core system from the other materials to the printed material.