The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset
Authors: Cramer Estee Y. , Huang Yuxin , Wang Yijin , Ray Evan L. , Cornell Matthew , Bracher Johannes , Brennen Andrea , Rivadeneira Alvaro J. Castro , Gerding Aaron , House Katie , Jayawardena Dasuni , Kanji Abdul Hannan , Khandelwal Ayush , Le Khoa , Mody Vidhi , Mody Vrushti , Niemi Jarad , Stark Ariane , Shah Apurv , Wattanchit Nutcha , Zorn Martha W. , Reich Nicholas G. ,   US COVID-19 Forecast Hub Consortium, Gneiting Tilmann , Mühlemann Anja , Gu Youyang , Chen Yixian , Chintanippu Krishna , Jivane Viresh , Khurana Ankita , Kumar Ajay , Lakhani Anshul , Mehrotra Prakhar , Pasumarty Sujitha , Shrivastav Monika , You Jialu , Bannur Nayana , Deva Ayush , Jain Sansiddh , Kulkarni Mihir , Merugu Srujana , Raval Alpan , Shingi Siddhant , Tiwari Avtansh , White Jerome , Adiga Aniruddha , Hurt Benjamin , Lewis Bryan , Marathe Madhav , Peddireddy Akhil Sai , Porebski Przemyslaw , Venkatramanan Srinivasan , Wang Lijing , Dahan Maytal , Fox Spencer , Gaither Kelly , Lachmann Michael , Meyers Lauren Ancel , Scott James G. , Tec Mauricio , Woody Spencer , Srivastava Ajitesh , Xu Tianjian , Cegan Jeffrey C. , Dettwiller Ian D. , England William P. , Farthing Matthew W. , George Glover E. , Hunter Robert H. , Lafferty Brandon , Linkov Igor , Mayo Michael L. , Parno Matthew D. , Rowland Michael A. , Trump Benjamin D. , Chen Samuel , Faraone Stephen V. , Hess Jonathan , Morley Christopher P. , Salekin Asif , Wang Dongliang , Zhang-James Yanli , Baer Thomas M. , Corsetti Sabrina M. , Eisenberg Marisa C. , Falb Karl , Huang Yitao , Martin Emily T. , McCauley Ella , Myers Robert L. , Schwarz Tom , Gibson Graham Casey , Sheldon Daniel , Gao Liyao , Ma Yian , Wu Dongxia , Yu Rose , Jin Xiaoyong , Wang Yu-Xiang , Yan Xifeng , Chen YangQuan , Guo Lihong , Zhao Yanting , Chen Jinghui , Gu Quanquan , Wang Lingxiao , Xu Pan , Zhang Weitong , Zou Difan , Chattopadhyay Ishanu , Huang Yi , Lu Guoqing , Pfeiffer Ruth , Sumner Timothy , Wang Dongdong , Wang Liqiang , Zhang Shunpu , Zou Zihang , Biegel Hannah , Lega Joceline , Hussain Fazle , Khan Zeina , Van Bussel Frank , McConnell Steve , Guertin Stephanie L , Hulme-Lowe Christopher , Nagraj V. P. , Turner Stephen D. , Bejar Benjamín , Choirat Christine , Flahault Antoine , Krymova Ekaterina , Lee Gavin , Manetti Elisa , Namigai Kristen , Obozinski Guillaume , Sun Tao , Thanou Dorina , Ban Xuegang , Shi Yunfeng , Walraven Robert , Hong Qi-Jun , van de Walle Axel , Ben-Nun Michal , Riley Steven , Riley Pete , Turtle James , Cao Duy , Galasso Joseph , Cho Jae H. , Jo Areum , DesRoches David , Forli Pedro , Hamory Bruce , Koyluoglu Ugur , Kyriakides Christina , Leis Helen , Milliken John , Moloney Michael , Morgan James , Nirgudkar Ninad , Ozcan Gokce , Piwonka Noah , Ravi Matt , Schrader Chris , Shakhnovich Elizabeth , Siegel Daniel , Spatz Ryan , Stiefeling Chris , Wilkinson Barrie , Wong Alexander , Cavany Sean , España Guido , Moore Sean , Oidtman Rachel , Perkins Alex , Ivy Julie S. , Mayorga Maria E. , Mele Jessica , Rosenstrom Erik T. , Swann Julie L. , Kraus Andrea , Kraus David , Bian Jiang , Cao Wei , Gao Zhifeng , Ferres Juan Lavista , Li Chaozhuo , Liu Tie-Yan , Xie Xing , Zhang Shun , Zheng Shun , Chinazzi Matteo , Vespignani Alessandro , Xiong Xinyue , Davis Jessica T. , Mu Kunpeng , Piontti Ana Pastore y , Baek Jackie , Farias Vivek , Georgescu Andreea , Levi Retsef , Sinha Deeksha , Wilde Joshua , Zheng Andrew , Lami Omar Skali , Bennouna Amine , Ndong David Nze , Perakis Georgia , Singhvi Divya , Spantidakis Ioannis , Thayaparan Leann , Tsiourvas Asterios , Weisberg Shane , Jadbabaie Ali , Sarker Arnab , Shah Devavrat , Celi Leo A. , Penna Nicolas D. , Sundar Saketh , Berlin Abraham , Gandhi Parth D. , McAndrew Thomas , Piriya Matthew , Chen Ye , Hlavacek William , Lin Yen Ting , Mallela Abhishek , Miller Ely , Neumann Jacob , Posner Richard , Wolfinger Russ , Castro Lauren , Fairchild Geoffrey , Michaud Isaac , Osthus Dave , Wolffram Daniel , Karlen Dean , Panaggio Mark J. , Kinsey Matt , Mullany Luke C. , Rainwater-Lovett Kaitlin , Shin Lauren , Tallaksen Katharine , Wilson Shelby , Brenner Michael , Coram Marc , Edwards Jessie K. , Joshi Keya , Klein Ellen , Hulse Juan Dent , Grantz Kyra H. , Hill Alison L. , Kaminsky Kathryn , Kaminsky Joshua , Keegan Lindsay T. , Lauer Stephen A. , Lee Elizabeth C. , Lemaitre Joseph C. , Lessler Justin , Meredith Hannah R. , Perez-Saez Javier , Shah Sam , Smith Claire P. , Truelove Shaun A. , Wills Josh , Gardner Lauren , Marshall Maximilian , Nixon Kristen , Burant John C. , Budzinski Jozef , Chiang Wen-Hao , Mohler George , Gao Junyi , Glass Lucas , Qian Cheng , Romberg Justin , Sharma Rakshith , Spaeder Jeffrey , Sun Jimeng , Xiao Cao , Gao Lei , Gu Zhiling , Kim Myungjin , Li Xinyi , Wang Yueying , Wang Guannan , Wang Lily , Yu Shan , Jain Chaman , Bhatia Sangeeta , Nouvellet Pierre , Barber Ryan , Gaikedu Emmanuela , Hay Simon , Lim Steve , Murray Chris , Pigott David , Reiner Robert C. , Baccam Prasith , Gurung Heidi L. , Stage Steven A. , Suchoski Bradley T. , Fong Chung-Yan , Yeung Dit-Yan , Adhikari Bijaya , Cui Jiaming , Prakash B. Aditya , Rodríguez Alexander , Tabassum Anika , Xie Jiajia , Asplund John , Baxter Arden , Keskinocak Pinar , Oruc Buse Eylul , Serban Nicoleta , Arik Sercan O. , Dusenberry Mike , Epshteyn Arkady , Kanal Elli , Le Long T. , Li Chun-Liang , Pfister Tomas , Sinha Rajarishi , Tsai Thomas , Yoder Nate , Yoon Jinsung , Zhang Leyou , Wilson Daniel , Belov Artur A. , Chow Carson C. , Gerkin Richard C. , Yogurtcu Osman N. , Ibrahim Mark , Lacroix Timothee , Le Matthew , Liao Jason , Nickel Maximilian , Sagun Levent , Abbott Sam , Bosse Nikos I. , Funk Sebastian , Hellewell Joel , Meakin Sophie R. , Sherratt Katharine , Kalantari Rahi , Zhou Mingyuan , Karimzadeh Morteza , Lucas Benjamin , Ngo Thoai , Zoraghein Hamidreza , Vahedi Behzad , Wang Zhongying , Sen Pei  , Shaman Jeffrey , Yamana Teresa K. , Bertsimas Dimitris , Li Michael L. , Soni Saksham , Bouardi Hamza Tazi , Adee Madeline , Ayer Turgay , Chhatwal Jagpreet , Dalgic Ozden O. , Ladd Mary A. , Linas Benjamin P. , Mueller Peter , Xiao Jade , Bosch Jurgen , Wilson Austin , Zimmerman Peter , Wang Qinxia , Wang Yuanjia , Xie Shanghong , Zeng Donglin , Bien Jacob , Brooks Logan , Green Alden , Hu Addison J. , Jahja Maria , McDonald Daniel , Narasimhan Balasubramanian , Politsch Collin , Rajanala Samyak , Rumack Aaron , Simon Noah , Tibshirani Ryan J. , Tibshirani Rob , Ventura Valerie , Wasserman Larry , Drake John M. , O’Dea Eamon B. , Abu-Mostafa Yaser , Bathwal Rahil , Chang Nicholas A. , Chitta Pavan , Erickson Anne , Goel Sumit , Gowda Jethin , Jin Qixuan , Jo HyeongChan , Kim Juhyun , Kulkarni Pranav , Lushtak Samuel M. , Mann Ethan , Popken Max , Soohoo Connor , Tirumala Kushal , Tseng Albert , Varadarajan Vignesh , Vytheeswaran Jagath , Wang Christopher , Yeluri Akshay , Yurk Dominic , Zhang Michael , Zlokapa Alexander , Pagano Robert , Jain Chandini , Tomar Vishal , Ho Lam , Huynh Huong , Tran Quoc , Lopez Velma K. , Walker Jo W. , Slayton Rachel B. , Johansson Michael A. , Biggerstaff Matthew , Reich Nicholas G. 
Published: August 2022

AbstractAcademic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages.