bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
The Importance of Rationing in International Trade: An Econometric Analysis for Germany
Authors: Franz Wolfgang , Heidbrink Gustav 
Published: September 2022

SummaryWithin the context of a macroeconometric rationing model the importance of rationing for international trade flows is investigated. The model describes rationing barriers on domestic and foreign markets which lead to spillover effects on domestic imports and exports. The novelties of this study are the more detailed analysis of the dynamics of international trade flows and the use of business survey data as proxies for rationing barriers. The model is estimated for Germany. As a result rationing does influence trade flows to a non-negligible extent. Moreover, business survey data are a useful indicator for rationing but they do not outperform other proxies such as the degree of capacity utilization.
L’integration monétaire en Europe: Introduction
Authors: Aglietto Michel , Ghymers Christian 
Published: September 2022

Avant de présenter comme il se doit une synthèse des contributions que nous avons rassemblées sur l’intégration monétaire européenne, il nous est apparu nécessaire, à la lumière des développements récents, d’introduire ce numéro spécial par un bref commentaire sur les conditions de réalisation d’une union monétaire viable.Au seuil de l’échéance symbolique de l’« Europe 1992 » et de son marché unique, les événements monétaires de septembre 1992 sont venus rappeler que la Communauté de monnaie, qui devrait venir accomplir le marché unique en supprimant la dernière source de fractionnements nationaux, requiert le strict respect de préalables dont la réalisation semble encore loin d’être assurée. C’est en tous cas l’opinion des marchés, dont les soubresauts récents ont mis en lumière deux principes essentiels : d’abord la primauté de la convergence des performances et des politiques économiques pour fonder une union monétaire, ensuite la validité du «théorème d’incompatibilité», c’est à dire le caractère instable d’un SME qui serait fondé sur des capitaux parfaitement libres, des changes fixes, et une absence de progrès tangible de la coopération monétaire ou d’engagement politique ferme envers ITJEM tel que la ratification sans bavure du Traité de Maastricht.
Economic Convergence in the Integrating Community Economy and the Role of Economic Policies
Authors: Connolly Bernard , Kröger Jürgen 
Published: September 2022

SummaryThe present paper shows that with increasing economic integration the notion of nominal convergence is changing with price convergence more easily achievable, convergence of cost trends becoming more important and convergence of current account balances less essential. Convergence in supply conditions will crucially determine future employment opportunities. The issue of credibility of the supply performance seems to be just as important as the more conventionally accepted issue of macro-economic credibility. Policies which, enhance the supply-side flexibility of EC economies would reduce the temptation to use discretionary policies to influence regional output and employment. Flexibility of relative price and wages would also by itself temper the need for demand management, facilitate adjustment to both temporary and permanent shocks and reduce the need for an intra-EC transfer mechanism. However, the reform of economic structures so as to increase flexibility will itself constitute a shock. Structural reforms may thus themselves be a source of short-term déstabilisation of aggregate demand, prices and employment. Deciding whether or not anticyclical fiscal responses (which may be equivalent to capital controls) are appropriate in such circumstances is not straightforward.
National Insurance against Unevenly Distributed Shocks in a European Monetary Union
Authors: Mélitz Jacques , Vori Silvia 
Published: September 2022

SummaryWe examine proposals to introduce national insurance against unevenly distributed shocks in the European Community. This insurance would operate differently from tax and government spending activities that now yield regional insurance within countries, since these activities are mainly designed for other purpose such as income redistribution and general revenue-raising. According to our evidence, the appeal of such insurance is very limited because the risks are too highly correlated and there is an excessive chance that a country in difficulty would not receive aid. The costs of a continuing programme are likely to exceed the benefits.
From Here to EMU: The Role of the Ecu after Maastricht
Authors: Steinherr Alfred 
Published: September 2022

SummaryThe Maasstricht Treaty on EMU has generally been hailed as “a victory for the Ecu”. This is a misinterpretation. Maastricht is a victory for the EMU. EMU does not require the actual Ecu, and the actual Ecu did not receive a boost from the decision to call the future single currency “Ecu” rather than “Euromark”. Maasstricht has not nailed down the actual Ecu’s future and has left some uncertainties. Finally, it is not certain that the future Ecu will be at least as “hard” as the Deutschemark. The Maastricht Treaty went as far as practically possible in anchoring the Ecu’s stability. But performance will depend on factors outside of the Treaty’s scope.
Analytical solutions to an RBC model with imperfect competition, increasing returns and underemployment
Authors: Bénassy Jean-Pascal 
Published: September 2022

SummaryWe construct in this paper a “benchmark” model of fluctuations withoptimizing households and firms. The economy is a monetary one, withimperfect competition in goods and labor markets, as well as increasingreturns to scale and specialization. This economy is subject totechnological and monetary shocks. Analytical solutions are derived, whichallow to understand the respective roles of imperfect competition andincreasing returns in generating underemployment of resources and potentialpersistence effects.
Participation, unemployment and wage bargaining in a real business cycle model
Authors: Langot François , Pucci Muriel 
Published: September 2022

SummaryThe objective of this article is to evaluate quantitative implications of the hypothesis of matching, with endogenous participation, in the framework of a real cycle model. The choice of participation results from a trade off between domestic production and search for a job. Thus, fluctuations of the unemployment summarise the flows in and out of the labour force. Moreover, in this model, unemployment fluctuations are not Pareto optimal as in Andolfatto [1966] and Merz [1995]. Results of the simulations show how it is possible to explain some stylised facts of the American labour market when flows on this market are so clarified.
Fiscal policies, public deficit restraints and European stabilization
Authors: Bec Frédérique , Hairault Jean-Olivier 
Published: September 2022

SummaryThe ability of fiscal policies to smooth macroeconomic fluctuations under the constraints imposed by the Maastricht Treaty is at the heart of the current policy debate in Europe. A two-country intertemporal stochastic general equilibrium model is used in order to evaluate the efficiency of fiscal policy. First, it reveals the importance of the nature of the shocks hitting European countries : asymmetrical shocks actually strengthen the national fluctuations. Then, constraints on public deficit imposed by the Maastricht Treaty limit the ability of national governements to stabilize their économies. Furthermore, they can lead the european countries to adopt pro-cyclical budget rules.
Big shock, slow growth and the dynamics of aggregate labour demand with firing costs
Authors: Chambin Marianne , Portier Franck 
Published: September 2022

SummaryThis paper studies the dynamic properties of the labour demand model with non convex adjustment costs proposed by Bentolila and Bertola [1990]. With this model we evaluate the importance of the firing costs, following a great shock, for the dynamics of adjustment of the aggregated labour demand of a stationary state to an other. The model is calibrated on the French economy, and studies the transition following the shock of 1973-74,–i.e. a shock on the price of oil as well as the transition from a rapid and stable growth to a slow and uncertain one. We show that in this case, a drastic reduction of the firing costs when the shock occurs does not allow to modify substantially the path of the economy.
Can animal spirits explain the dynamics of European unemployment?
Authors: Fève Patrick , Langot François 
Published: September 2022

SummaryWe estimate a model with equilibrium unemployment explained by a search process on the labor market. We find that the matching function has increasing returns to scale and we show that this model may display fluctuations at business cycle frequencies even when there are no shocks to the fundamentals of the economy. In particular, self-fulfilling beliefs, or “animal spirits”, can explain the fluctuations around the Beveridge curve observed in the French, German and U.K. economies.
Régulation multidimensionnelle d'un monopole polluant et majorité politique aléatoire
Authors: Boisson Hélène 
Published: September 2022

RésuméLe contrat de régulation optimale d'un monopole avec deux paramètres d'information privée et d'antisélection (productivité et niveau d'émissions polluantes) est caractérisé. Dans ce contexte de screening bidimension-nel, un aspect d'économie politique est introduit en considérant l'objectif du régulateur comme le résultat d'un processus électoral majoritaire. En fonction du régime politique, deux types de contrats apparaissent : l'un est séparateur, l'autre mélangeant. Leur occurrence dépend de la confrontation des incitations sociales et privées qui résultent de l'arbitrage effectuépar le régulateur entre l'extraction de la rente informationnelle et le gain d'efficacité allocative.
Incertitude scientifique et décision publique : le recours au
Principe de précaution
Authors: Bouglet Tania , Lanzi Thomas , Vergnaud J.-C. 
Published: September 2022

Résumé:Dans cet article, nous formalisons deux critères de décisions qui tentent de
rendre compte de deux logiques différentes d'interprétation du Principe de
précaution. Le premier critère correspond à la maximisation du minimum de
l'espérance d'utilité alors que le second critère correspond à la
minimisation du maximum de l'espérance de regret. Les deux critères de
décisions sont appliqués à un problème économique où l'incertitude est
mesurée par une famille de probabilités. Nous montrons qu'il existe un
intervalle de probabilités sur lequel les choix relatifs aux deux critères
divergent. Plus particulièrement, nous montrons que sur cet intervalle, le
second critère à la différence du premier, conduit toujours à retenir la
décision la plus précautionneuse, les décisions étant identiques sur les
autres intervalles.
Industrial Investment in the European Community
Authors: Weiserbs Daniel 
Published: September 2022

Since 1973 European Economies have faced a period of slow growth aggravated by a new recession in 1980 which has dramatically increased unemployment. It has also particularly affected investment whose volume declined in absolute terms between 1979 and 1983.Whilst in the period of rapid growth, exports and investment were the driving forces of expansion, however in the mid 70’s growth was sustained rather by public and private consumption. But since then public deficits have constrained governments to adopt austerity policies reducing their expenditures and slowing down as much as possible transfers to households.Simultaneously, the weakening of firms’ financial situation has led governments to endeavour to render the distribution of value added more favorable to profits, which has brought pressure on real wages. This, together with limitation on the volume of transfer payments, has eroded consumer’s purchasing power.These policies have been quite effective in terms of inflation rates and external deficits. However, the medium term prospects for unemployment remain around 10%, if not more, of the active population.
Comment on «Industrial Investment in the European Community»
Authors: Boyd Chris 
Published: September 2022

Daniel Weiserbs has produced a very interesting model of investment behaviour in the six major countries of the EEC. As is usual in econometric studies he has had to steer a careful course between what is feasible and what is desirable. In particular for this study the data constraints are severe, since the data are annual and only for a 21 year period. In view of such constraints it is very important to have a clear economic interpretation of the coefficients to be estimated and in this paper we are supplied in most cases with a convincing story.The model is however derived in a fairly ad hoc manner and this can sometimes have the disadvantage of hiding the full implications of the assumptions made. For example we know from work by Lucas (1967), Gould (1968) and others that if we assume that an industry or sector acts, as a whole, like a representative profit-maximizing firm with costs of adjusting its capital stock, then the use of a partial adjustment mechanism as specified in equation (6) implies that the representative firm has static expectations – that is future growth, as seen from a point in time, is expected to remain constant for all time into the future. Now since the expectation of growth one period ahead is in fact specified to be equal to growth this period, the model is implicitly assuming that, at each period, firms expect growth to continue at its present rate for ever – which must have been a depressing thought in 1981.
Comment on «Investment, Output and Labor Constraints, and Financial Constraints: the Estimation of a Model with Several Regimes»
Authors: Plasmans Joseph 
Published: September 2022

Irrespective of Malinvaud’s theoretical considerations about profitability (see Malinvaud (1980 and 1982)), this paper is, together with a companion article of Gérard and Vanden Berghe (1984), the second paper I am aware of dealing with investment in disequilibrium situations.The first paper is one of Nishimizu, Quandt and Rosen of Princeton University, entitled; «The Demand and Supply for Investment Goods: Does the Market Clear?», (1980) (not yet published), in which they apply the popular Maddala-Nelson Maximum – Likelihood Procedure (see Maddala and Nelson (1974)) to estimate the model parameters for a postwar quarterly model on Japanese manufacturing data. They specified and estimated a model of the market for investment goods alone, that explicitly incorporated a supply side and that allowed for the possibility that this market might not clear instantaneously. The most striking results were that the long run Japanese supply curve of investment goods is virtually horizontal, and that the Japanese investment market appears to be characterized by equilibrium.And now comes this second paper, but also allowing for possible rationing on the output, labour and credit markets.
Comment on «Econometric Analysis of Sectoral Investment in Belgium (1956–1982)»
Authors: Westaway A.J. 
Published: September 2022

The authors derive some interesting conclusions about the relative importance of the cost of capital and output during periods of economic crisis and relative prosperity. In essence as a result of output constraints during periods of economic recession the level of output is seen to dominate the demand for capital goods with real cost of capital playing a minor role. These conclusion result from a theoretical development of investment behaviour that allows for the introduction of rationing when a sector is operating under an output constraint. The following points arise from a detailed study of the paper.Initial experiments with standard investment functions of the Jorgenson & Eisner-Nadiri type give the familiar result that they are unstable. If attention is turned to the results presented in Tables 2 and 3 it can be clearly seen that elasticities and mean lags are very sensitive to small changes in the data set. This can be interpreted as indicating the severe problems of mispecification that are present but may also result from severe multicollinearity between the explanatory variables or the presence of an outlier in the data set. If the values of σ and μ are used to calculate v, the degree of homogeneity of the production function, it is worrying to find that it takes unrealistic values with a large number of estimates exceeding 2 and several exceeding 20. In addition, the interpretation of the mean lag should be treated with caution. The mean lag is meaningless if, as for some sectors appear likely from the information given, the value of βj alternate in sign. The use of the median lag may however overcome these problems.
Comment on «Aggregate Investment and Output in the U.K.»
Authors: Ingham A. 
Published: September 2022

The conclusions of this paper are interesting and controversial. Its conclusions that the promotion of investment can only come about by means of reducing real wages, and, the public sector borrowing requirement means that Keynesian policies being recommended for the reduction of unemployment are inconsistent, in that increases in these two variables will lead according to the results of this model to a reduced level of investment, and hence a lower rate of growth of output, and a lower rate of job creation. These results being true in the short run as well as in the long run. In my view it has not been conclusively shown that these results are true for the British Economy, and I intend in the rest of my comments to explain my reservation about the model and its results.As these results are derived solely from a view of the data obtained from their model, a first approach is to examine their model critically. At first the model seems unexceptable. In fact in many ways it embodies a degree of structure unusual in such a study. However, the structure is not complete, one could not expect it to be, and it is here that some problems may arise.The investment equation is determined as one from a set of factor demand equations derived from profit maximisation subject to a KLEM technology. Output is somewhat curiously defined but for the moment let us pass over that and concentrate on the problem max
Un modèle économétrique de la balance des paiements de l’U. E. B. L.
Authors: Gazon J. , Langaskens Y. 
Published: September 2022

Cette étude a pour objet d’élaborer un premier modèle économétrique annuel des principaux postes de la balance des paiements de 1’U.E.B.L.Dans une perspective structurelle, nous nous sommes limités à l’explication du niveau des variables bien que l’équilibre de la balance des paiements relève également des objectifs à court terme de la politique économique. En conséquence, les variables endogènes et exogènes peuvent être influencées par un “trend” commun dont bénéficie le coefficient de détermination (1).
Forces économiques, flux de transports et infrastructure dans
l’Europe des Six Essai de synthèse
Authors: Paelinck Jean , Overbeke John van 
Published: September 2022

La présente étude résulte d’une mise en commun de réflexions portant sur
deux aspects des activités économiques dans l’Europe des Six : l’existence
d’un potentiel de production et de consommation d’une part, la nécessité de
transporter d’un lieu à l’autre les produits mis sur le marché dans des
conditions de spécialisation interrégionale, d’autre part.L’étude comporte trois chapitres. Le premier analyse, à l’aide des
techniques quantitatives du barycentre, de l’écart-type et du coefficient de
concentration, les tendances au déplacement des forces économiques de
l’Europe de l’Ouest. Le second chapitre dégage les caractéristiques récentes
en matière de flux et débits de transports, et présente, dans cette optique,
les projets d’infrastructure d’avenir de la Communauté Économique
Européenne.Un troisième chapitre fait la synthèse des deux premiers, et essaie de
dégager la complexion géo-économique de l’Europe vers 1970, à l’aide des
tendances constatées.Afin de ne pas alourdir la présentation de l’étude, la plupart des cartes et
tableaux, figurant dans une première version, ont été supprimés; seuls ont
été conservés les aperçus chiffrés ou cartographiques strictement
nécessaires à la poursuite du raisonnement.
Facteurs déterminants de l’accroissement de la productivité dans
l’industrie textile
Authors: Loir Pierre 
Published: September 2022

L’accroissement de la productivité intervenu dans l’industrie textile belge
surprend quelquefois: l’indice passe de 100 en 1948 à 152 en 1957, pourtant
le coefficient de capital dans cette industrie serait apparemment en baisse,
l’intensité de capital s’accroîtrait moins que dans l’industrie de la
construction électrique, où les performances relatives de la productivité
sont moins importantes.Dans cet article consacré à l’explication de l’accroissement de la
productivité dans l’industrie textile, on voudrait illustrer le rôle
déterminant qu’ont joué, spécialement dans cette industrie, le progrès
technique dans les prestations des machines, l’économie de main-d’œuvre et
le rajeunissement de l’âge du capital qui en ont été le résultat, étant
donné un contexte spécifique de prix et de coût.
La dévaluation de la livre sterling
Authors: Dupriez Léon H. 
Published: September 2022

Un accident survenant à la livre sterling est, pour l'économie mondiale, un événement majeur : d'abord, parce qu'il est l'aboutissement de tensions graves qui s'exacerbent et se dénouent dans une crise; ensuite, parce qu'il crée des rapports nouveaux dans le système international des prix et dans les relations financières. Ceux-ci requièrent des processus d'ajustement.Certes, la crise du sterling se préparait depuis de longues années et seules la date et les modalités restaient problématiques. Elle était, d'autre part, de plus en plus imbriquée dans la crise de liquidité internationale dont les éléments ont apparu clairement dès 1958.
Hauts taux d'intérêt: explication et perspectives
Authors: Bernard Luc-D. 
Published: September 2022

Que les taux d'intérêts aient atteint récemment, en Europe et aux États-Unis, des sommets véritablement historiques retient notre attention pour plusieurs motifs. Le moindre n'est pas que ce phénomène se place dans un climat monétaire particulier : celui engendré par les appréhensions d'abord et les conséquences ensuite de la dévaluation britannique.Que la récente tentative anglo-saxonne de repli des taux d'intérêt ait échoué dès l'été 1967, moment à partir duquel le loyer de l'argent, tant aux États-Unis qu'en Grande-Bretagne, fut à nouveau entraîné vers le haut, renforce d'ailleurs notre attention.
Economic reform in the U.S.S.R.
Authors: Fedorenko Nikolay P. 
Published: September 2022

The comprehensive and allround economic reform currently under way in the Soviet Union embraces all the sectors of the national economy - industry, construction, farming, transport, trade, science, etc.: it extends to all levels in the organizational structure of the management of social production - work-shops, enterprises, associations, industrial chief administrations, and ministries. The reform is bringing many changes to the traditional forms and methods of activity of the central planning, economic and financial-credit agencies of the state.The socialist enterprises have been now endowed with wide rights in managing the economic resourses, regulating their interrelations with the raw material suppliers and the consumers of the finished products. In this connection, the question sometimes is voiced in the foreign press: is not the economic reform currently under way in the Soviet Union a renouncement of the basic principles of socialist production management, does it not herald a weakness of the planned nature of the Soviet economy?