bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Detection and attribution of summer temperature changes in China during the last millennium
Authors: Wang Zhiyuan , Wang Jianglin , Jia Jia , Shi Xiaoyi , Wang Sisi , Pan Chunhua 
Published: March 2022

AbstractThe last millennium (LM, 1000–1850 AD) is crucial for studying historical climate change on decadal to multidecadal timescales. The summer surface air temperature (SAT) evolutions on regional scales (e.g. over China) are more uncertain than the globe/Northern Hemisphere, especially in response to external forcing factors and internal climate variability. Here, we provide one‐signal (full‐forcing) fingerprints of summer SAT in China derived from three large ensemble model archives with a multi‐proxy reconstruction during the LM, Little Ice Age (LIA, 1451–1850 AD), and Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, 1000–1250 AD), respectively. Our results show that (a) SATs in the northeast, southeast, northwest, and Tibetan Plateau (TP) regions of China show evident decreasing trends during the LM. External forcing response from all model archives agrees with the regional SAT reconstruction but underestimates variability in northwest China at the multidecadal timescale. (b) During the LIA, the summer regional SAT exhibits a cold condition in the reconstruction and simulations, especially in the northeast and northwest regions of China. External forcing responses in most model archives are the dominant factor on multidecadal SAT evolutions in the southeast, northeast, and TP regions of China and decadal SAT evolutions in northwest China. (c) During the MCA, detection and attribution of SAT shows that internal climate variability dominates in southeast, northeast, and TP regions of China, but external forcing dominates in northwest China at decadal to multidecadal timescales. These results contribute to a better understanding of the causes and mechanisms of regional climate change.
Increased amplitude of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation towards recent: Evidence from tree‐ring‐based reconstruction since 1596
Authors: Dong Zhipeng , Zhou Feifei , Zheng Zhuangpeng , Fang Keyan 
Published: March 2022

AbstractThe North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) is the second leading mode of the sea surface height (SSH) of the North Pacific Ocean, playing a key role in causing regional ecosystem changes and large‐scale climate anomalies. However, its long‐term evolution prior to the industrial era is largely unknown. This study provides a reconstruction of the NPGO from 1596 onwards from 19 NPGO‐sensitive tree‐ring chronologies in the Himalayan Mountains, the Rocky Mountains, the Coastal Mountains and the Alaskan Mountain Range, which explained 57.1% of the observed NPGO variations. The selected tree‐ring chronologies showed strong linkages with the NPGO but weak or no correlations with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), another leading mode of the North Pacific Ocean. The reconstruction revealed that the NPGO variance and amplitude are not only the strongest towards recent in the instrumental period but also in the reconstruction period. The linkages between the NPGO and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) became strengthened towards recent, which may be attributed to the increased occurrence of central Pacific ENSO during the anthropogenic warming period. In addition, close linkages were found between the NPGO and the multidecadal Pacific variability (MPV), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) at the interannual and multidecadal scales, indicative of strong teleconnections between the ocean–atmosphere modes of the Pacific and Atlantic.
Modelling daily air temperature at a fine spatial resolution dealing with challenging meteorological phenomena and topography in Switzerland
Authors: Flückiger Benjamin , Kloog Itai , Ragettli Martina S. , Eeftens Marloes , Röösli Martin , de Hoogh Kees 
Published: March 2022

AbstractEpidemiological studies investigating the relationship between air temperature or heat and health, still, by and large, rely on either information from the nearest weather station or on coarse gridded temperature predictions, thereby ignoring small‐scale intra‐urban variations. Recent methodological advances show promise in achieving high spatiotemporal temperature predictions, thus improving the characterization of spatial variations in temperature and decreasing bias in health studies. Here, we applied a two‐stage approach using random forest to (a) impute missing moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature at a 1 × 1 km resolution and (b) to use the gap‐filled MODIS data to explain spatiotemporal variation in the measured ground‐based air temperature data at a 100 × 100 m resolution across Switzerland using a range of predictor variables, including meteorological parameters, normalized difference vegetation index, impervious surface and altitude. Models presented here managed to capture temporal and spatial variations in air temperature in Switzerland from 2003 to 2018 at a fine spatial resolution of 100 × 100 m. Stage 1 models achieved an overall R2 of 0.98 and a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 1.49°C (independent validation), and the stage 2 model performed well for all years with R2 and RMSE ranging from 0.94 to 0.99 and 1.05 to 1.86°C, respectively. We were also able to capture the urban heat island effect and some typical weather phenomena caused by Switzerland's complex topography, like the foehn effect and inversion conditions. The resulting daily temperature surfaces for 2003–2018 will facilitate ongoing epidemiological research investigating the health effects of heat.
Increasingly dry/wet abrupt alternation events in a warmer world: Observed evidence from China during 1980–2019
Authors: Qiao Yu , Xu Wei , Meng Chenna , Liao Xinli , Qin Lianjie 
Published: March 2022

AbstractThe evolution of the frequency of dry/wet spells is a hot topic in global climate change research. The synergistic effects of dry/wet spells make their consequences far more significant than a single disaster, having considerable impacts on hydrology, ecology, and economies, especially in the context of global warming. In this study, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI)‐based identification of dry/wet spells was used to explore the evolution of the frequency of dry/wet abrupt alternation (DWAA) events in the past four decades in China, makes up for the lack of research on the evolution of such compound disasters. China has been affected by dry/wet spells in many areas for a long time. Studies found that high‐frequency DWAA areas are concentrated in densely populated areas, China's essential food bases and core areas for economic development. Dry‐to‐wet (D–W) events and wet‐to‐dry (W–D) events basically increased or decreased at the same pace in this period. We innovatively find DWAA events (D–W events and W–D events) are projected to occur increasingly in a wider region of China. The frequency of D–W events across China has increased from 2.35 in the 1980s to 3.56 in the last decade, a 50% increase. On the other hand, W–D events increased from 2.6 to 3.23, increasing 24%. The three regions with the most remarkable changes in the past four decades are Inner Mongolia, northwest China, and north China, where D–W events increased by 121, 61, and 58%, respectively, and W–D events increased by 71, 57, and 61%, respectively. Hereby, it is vital to implement effective prevention against DWAA events in the area which has been neglected in the past decades because of lower frequency. These results may help policymakers develop suitable disaster mitigation plans for reducing the potential risks of extreme compound natural events.
Climatology of aerosol types and their vertical distribution over East Asia based on CALIPSO lidar measurements
Authors: Gui Lu , Tao Minghui , Wang Yi , Wang Lunche , Chen Liangfu , Lin Changqing , Tao Jinhua , Wang Jun , Yu Chao 
Published: March 2022

AbstractAerosol vertical distribution generally determines their health impacts and climate effects. By using long‐term (2007–2019) CALIPSO lidar measurements, we present a large‐scale insight into the climatology of aerosol types and their vertical structure over East Asia. Despite the low sampling frequency, comparison with MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD) shows that the integrated CAIPSO vertical extinction can reasonably reproduce spatial patterns of the aerosol loading. With the unique advantage of active detection, CALIPSO reveals an obvious enhancement of the night‐time AOD due to worse diffusion conditions. Moreover, long‐range transport of different aerosols including dust, polluted dust, and smoke has substantial contribution to the aerosol loading over East Asia. Pure dust particles are mainly concentrated over the deserts with notable dust transport belts (dust AOD > 0.2 at 532 nm) along downwind regions during winter and spring. By contrast, polluted dust is prevalent over the downstream eastern China with much higher AODs throughout the year. In particular, AOD of polluted dust (~0.5) is higher in winter rather than in spring, which is consistent with their seasonal occurrences. Smoke aerosols usually appear in the night‐time over southern China. The top heights of aerosols are around 4–6 km, with dust and smoke having higher extinction at upstream regions. The climatology of these aerosol types and vertical distribution can provide a significant constraint for associated studies of air quality and climate effects.
Probabilistic drought forecasting using copula and satellite rainfall based PERSIANN‐CDR and MSWEP datasets
Authors: Alijanian Mohammadali , Rakhshandehroo Gholam Reza , Dehghani Maryam , Mishra Ashok 
Published: March 2022

AbstractIn situ rainfall data plays a vital role in drought assessment. However, adequate in situ data are not available in many parts of the world, and they do not provide the proper spatial coverage for drought assessment. With the advacements in satellite rainfall estimates (SREs), it is possible to monitor droughts in ungauged basins. However, the applications of SREs for drought forecasting are not widely explored due to the inherent uncertainties associated with these products.In this study, we evaluated two long‐term SREs for drought forecasting in the Zayandehrood basin, a critical region in the central plateau of Iran. The performance of two SREs, including Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks‐Climate Data Record (PERSIANN‐CDR), and Multi‐Source Weighted‐Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) are compared with observations during 1983–2015. The overall results indicate that utilizing MSWEP data in the forecasting model can slightly overestimate the probability of spring drought based on winter drought (with the highest error of 8.5%). In comparison, the PERSIANN‐CDR underestimated the probabilities (with the lowest error being −44%). The performance of copula models and SREs can vary based on the thresholds for drought severity. For example, the performance of MSWEP datasets for predicting moderate to severe droughts during the Spring season is closer to the predicted values by gauge datasets. It is concluded that the MSWEP may be considered more reliable in drought forecasting than the PERSIANN‐CDR. Our results highlight the potential application of copula‐based forecasting models for seasonal drought forecasting using SREs datasets. Such models can be implemented for global‐scale drought predictions, especially in ungagged basins.
How is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation signal recorded by tree‐ring oxygen isotopes in southeastern China?
Authors: Fang Congxi , Liu Yu , Li Qiang , Song Huiming , Cai Qiufang , Sun Changfeng 
Published: March 2022

AbstractPrevious studies universally found that tree‐ring oxygen isotope (δ18OTR) in southeastern China (SEC) significantly recorded the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal. However, the correlation between the climate in SEC and ENSO is insignificant, so the local climatic response of SEC δ18OTR fails to explain the significant positive correlations between these δ18OTR records and ENSO. In this study, based on four δ18OTR series from SEC, meteorological data, simulated precipitation oxygen isotope (δ18OP) data, and a moisture uptake atlas deduced from Lagrangian backward trajectory experiments, a conceptual model was established to explain how the ENSO signal is recorded by SEC δ18OTR. During the El Niño decaying years, the Northwest Pacific (NWP) convective activity weakens; the convective weakening areas coincide with the main moisture sources for SEC, which enriches 18O in moisture that is transported to SEC, resulting in positive anomalies of δ18OP in SEC; finally, the ENSO‐modulated δ18OP signal is inherited by SEC δ18OTR. The opposite situations occur in the La Niña events. It was also indicated that the change in the moisture contribution percentage from different sources may not be a primary factor that connects SEC δ18OTR with ENSO. These findings contribute to understanding climatic signals represented by δ18OTR and δ18OP in the East Asian monsoon region.
Evaluation and projection of precipitation in Pakistan using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 model simulations
Authors: Abbas Adnan , Ullah Safi , Ullah Waheed , Waseem Muhammad , Dou Xin , Zhao Chengyi , Karim Aisha , Zhu Jianting , Hagan Daniel Fiifi Tawia , Bhatti Asher Samuel , Ali Gohar 
Published: March 2022

AbstractThis study aimed to evaluate the performance of global climate models (GCMs) from the family of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in the historical simulation of precipitation and select the best performing GCMs for future projection of precipitation in Pakistan under multiple shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The spatiotemporal performance of GCMs was evaluated against the Climate Research Unit (CRU) data in simulating annual precipitation during 1951–2014, using the Taylor diagram and interannual variability skill (IVS). Moreover, the modified Mann–Kendall (mMK) and Sen's slope estimator (SSE) tests were employed to estimate significant trends in future precipitation for the period 2015–2100. Based on the comprehensive ranking index (CRI), the HadGEM3‐GC31‐MM model has the highest skill in simulating precipitation distributions followed by EC‐Earth3‐Veg‐LR, CNRM‐ESM2‐1, MPI‐ESM1‐2‐HR, CNRM‐CM6‐1, MRI‐ESM2‐0, CNRM‐CM6‐1‐HR, EC‐Earth3‐Veg, MCM‐UA‐1‐0, INM‐CM5‐0, KACE‐1‐0‐G, CAMS‐CSM1‐0, and HadGEM3‐GC31‐LL models. Furthermore, the projections of the best models ensemble mean (BMEM) showed that the study region will experience a substantial increase in precipitation under SSP3‐7.0 and SSP5‐8.5 but an indolent rise under SSP1‐2.6 and SSP2‐4.5 scenarios. The summer and annual precipitations exhibit a statistically significant increasing trend relative to the winter season under most scenarios. Moreover, the magnitude of monotonic trends in seasonal and annual precipitation progresses from low forcing scenario (SSP1‐2.6) to high forcing scenario (SSP5‐8.5). The findings of the study could provide a benchmark in selecting appropriate GCMs for future projection over a data scare region, like Pakistan. Moreover, the projected trends of future precipitation are crucial in devising adaption and mitigation actions towards sustainable planning of water resource management, food security, and disaster risk management.
Statistical shape model‐based tibiofibular assessment of syndesmotic ankle lesions using weight‐bearing CT
Authors: Peiffer Matthias , Burssens Arne , De Mits Sophie , Heintz Thibault , Van Waeyenberge Michiel , Buedts Kris , Victor Jan , Audenaert Emmanuel 
Published: March 2022

AbstractForced external rotation is hypothesized as the key mechanism of syndesmotic ankle injuries, inducing a three‐dimensional deviation from the normal distal tibiofibular joint (DTFJ) alignment. However, current diagnostic imaging modalities are impeded by a two‐dimensional assessment, without considering ligamentous stabilizers. Therefore, our aim is threefold: (1) to construct an articulated statistical shape model of the normal DTFJ with the inclusion of ligamentous morphometry, (2) to investigate the effect of weight‐bearing on the DTFJ alignment, and (3) to detect differences in predicted syndesmotic ligament length of patients with syndesmotic lesions with respect to normative data. Training data comprised non‐weight‐bearing CT scans from asymptomatic controls (N = 76), weight‐bearing CT scans from patients with syndesmotic ankle injury (N = 13), and their weight‐bearing healthy contralateral side (N = 13). Path and length of the syndesmotic ligaments were predicted using a discrete element model, wrapped around bony contours. Statistical shape model evaluation was based on accuracy, generalization, and compactness. The predicted ligament length in patients with syndesmotic lesions was compared with healthy controls. With respect to the first aim, our presented skeletal shape model described the training data with an accuracy of 0.23 ± 0.028 mm. Mean prediction accuracy of ligament insertions was 0.53 ± 0.12 mm. In accordance with the second aim, our results showed an increased tibiofibular diastasis in healthy ankles after weight‐bearing. Concerning our third aim, a statistically significant difference in anterior syndesmotic ligament length was found between ankles with syndesmotic lesions and healthy controls (p = 0.017). There was a significant correlation between the presence of syndesmotic injury and the positional alignment between the distal tibia and fibula (r = 0.873, p < 0,001). Clinical Significance: Statistical shape modeling combined with patient‐specific ligament wrapping techniques can facilitate the diagnostic workup of syndesmosic ankle lesions under weight‐bearing conditions. In doing so, an increased anterior tibiofibular distance was detected, corresponding to an “anterior open‐book injury” of the ankle syndesmosis as a result of anterior inferior tibiofibular ligament elongation/rupture.
Does synovial sarcoma grade predict oncologic outcomes, and does a low‐grade variant exist?
Authors: Fice Michael , Almajnooni Abdullah , Gusho Charles , Chapman Reagan , Mallikarjunappa Subramanya , Batus Marta , Gitelis Steven , Colman Matthew , Miller Ira , Blank Alan 
Published: March 2022

AbstractBackground and ObjectivesWhile historically aggressive, some synovial sarcomas (SS) are clinically indolent. This study sought to determine whether SS grade predicts oncologic outcomes and whether Grade 1 disease might exist.MethodsThirty‐five cases from 2010 to 2019 were retrospectively reviewed. Clinicopathological data were analyzed and Kaplan–Meier assessed survival.ResultsThe median patient age was 37 years (interquartile range: 28–51.5). The local control rate was 74.3%, and recurrence‐free survival (RFS) was worse in positive versus negative margin resections (p = 0.023). The incidence of metastasis was 21.9% (n = 7) at a median 31 ± 31.7 months, and metastasis‐free survival was 50.0% in Grade 3 SS versus 86.5% in Grade 2 (p = 0.026). Among a theoretical Grade 1 group, the overall survival (OS) and RFS profiles were improved compared to Grade 2 and 3 SS, respectively (p = 0.014 and p = 0.030). The Grade 1 group had a 15.8% (n = 3) metastatic rate and 80% 10‐year survival.ConclusionsTumor grade appears to predict outcomes in SS. A theoretical Grade 1 group showed improved OS and RFS versus Grades 2 and 3 SS, with metastatic rates and long‐term survival resembling the historical literature for other low‐grade soft tissue sarcomas. Our group continues to support the French Federation of Cancer Centers diagnostic strategy and NCCN treatment guidelines for SS.
Effect of the COVID‐19 pandemic on surgical oncology practice—Results of an SSO survey
Authors: Gribkova Yelizaveta , Davis Catherine H. , Greenbaum Alissa A. , Lu Shou‐en , Berger Adam C. 
Published: March 2022

AbstractBackground and ObjectivesThe COVID‐19 pandemic significantly affected healthcare delivery, shifting focus away from nonurgent care. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of the pandemic on the practice of surgical oncology.MethodsA web‐based survey of questions about changes in practice during the COVID‐19 pandemic was approved by the Society of Surgical Oncology (SSO) Research and Executive Committees and sent by SSO to its members.ResultsA total of 121 SSO members completed the survey, 77.7% (94/121) of whom were based in the United States. Breast surgeons were more likely than their peers to refer patients to neoadjuvant therapy (p = 0.000171). Head and neck surgeons were more likely to refer patients to definitive nonoperative treatment (p = 0.044), while melanoma surgeons were less likely to do so (p = 0.029). In all, 79.2% (95/120) of respondents are currently using telemedicine. US surgeons were more likely to use telemedicine (p = 0.004). Surgeons believed telemedicine is useful for long‐term/surveillance visits (70.2%, 80/114) but inappropriate (50.4%, 57/113) for new patient visits.ConclusionCOVID‐19 pandemic resulted in increased use of neoadjuvant therapy, delays in operative procedures, and increased use of telemedicine. Telemedicine is perceived to be most efficacious for long‐term/surveillance visits or postoperative visits.
Impact of sociodemographic factors on outcomes in patients with peritoneal malignancies following cytoreduction and chemoperfusion
Authors: Cantos Adriana , Eguia Emanuel , Wang Xuanji , Abood Gerard , Knab Lawrence M. 
Published: March 2022

AbstractBackground and ObjectivesSociodemographic factors have been shown to impact surgical outcomes. However, the effects of these factors on patients undergoing cytoreductive surgery (CRS) and heated intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC) are not well known. This study aims to evaluate the impact of sociodemographic factors on patients undergoing CRS/HIPEC.MethodsAdult patients at a tertiary center who underwent CRS/HIPEC were evaluated. Perioperative variables were collected and analyzed. A national database was also used to evaluate patients undergoing CRS/HIPEC.ResultsThere were 90 patients who underwent CRS/HIPEC (32% non‐White). There was no statistically significant difference in postoperative complications, length of stay, or discharge disposition based upon race (white vs. non‐White patients), socioeconomic status (SES), or insurance type. Nationally, we found that Black and Hispanic patients were less likely to undergo CRS/HIPEC than Non‐Hispanic white patients (Black: odds ratio [OR]: 0.60, [confidence interval {CI}: 0.39–0.94]; Hispanic: OR: 0.52, [CI: 0.28–0.98]). However, there were no significant differences in postoperative complications based upon race/ethnicity.ConclusionSociodemographic factors including race, SES, and insurance status did not impact postoperative outcomes in patients undergoing CRS/HIPEC at our single institution. On a national level, Black and Hispanic patients underwent CRS/HIPEC at lower rates compared to white patients.