Prediction model of acute kidney injury after different types of acute aortic dissection based on machine learning
Authors: Xinsai Li , Zhengye Wang , Xuan Huang , Xueqian Chu , Kai Peng , Sisi Chen , Xuyan Jiang , Suhua Li 
Published: September 2022

ObjectiveA clinical prediction model for postoperative combined Acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients with Type A acute aortic dissection (TAAAD) and Type B acute aortic dissection (TBAAD) was constructed by using Machine Learning (ML).MethodsBaseline data was collected from Acute aortic division (AAD) patients admitted to First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University between January 1, 2019 and December 31, 2021. (1) We identified baseline Serum creatinine (SCR) estimation methods and used them as a basis for diagnosis of AKI. (2) Divide their total datasets randomly into Training set (70%) and Test set (30%), Bootstrap modeling and validation of features using multiple ML methods in the training set, and select models corresponding to the largest Area Under Curve (AUC) for follow-up studies. (3) Screening of the best ML model variables through the model visualization tools Shapley Addictive Explanations (SHAP) and Recursive feature reduction (REF). (4) Finally, the pre-screened prediction models were evaluated using test set data from three aspects: discrimination, Calibration, and clinical benefit.ResultsThe final incidence of AKI was 69.4% (120/173) in 173 patients with TAAAD and 28.6% (81/283) in 283 patients with TBAAD. For TAAAD-AKI, the Random Forest (RF) model showed the best prediction performance in the training set (AUC = 0.760, 95% CI:0.630–0.881); while for TBAAD-AKI, the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) model worked best (AUC = 0.734, 95% CI:0.623–0.847). Screening of the characteristic variables revealed that the common predictors among the two final prediction models for postoperative AKI due to AAD were baseline SCR, Blood urea nitrogen (BUN) and Uric acid (UA) at admission, Mechanical ventilation time (MVT). The specific predictors in the TAAAD-AKI model are: White blood cell (WBC), Platelet (PLT) and D dimer at admission, Plasma The specific predictors in the TBAAD-AKI model were N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP), Serum kalium, Activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT) and Systolic blood pressure (SBP) at admission, Combined renal arteriography in surgery. Finally, we used in terms of Discrimination, the ROC value of the RF model for TAAAD was 0.81 and the ROC value of the LightGBM model for TBAAD was 0.74, both with good accuracy. In terms of calibration, the calibration curve of TAAAD-AKI's RF fits the ideal curve the best and has the lowest and smallest Brier score (0.16). Similarly, the calibration curve of TBAAD-AKI's LightGBM model fits the ideal curve the best and has the smallest Brier score (0.15). In terms of Clinical benefit, the best ML models for both types of AAD have good Net benefit as shown by Decision Curve Analysis (DCA).ConclusionWe successfully constructed and validated clinical prediction models for the occurrence of AKI after surgery in TAAAD and TBAAD patients using different ML algorithms. The main predictors of the two types of AAD-AKI are somewhat different, and the strategies for early prevention and control of AKI are also different and need more external data for validation.