The Variability of the Black Hole Image in M87 at the Dynamical Timescale
Authors: Satapathy Kaushik , Psaltis Dimitrios , Özel Feryal , Medeiros Lia , Dougall Sean T. , Chan Chi-Kwan , Wielgus Maciek , Prather Ben S. , Wong George N. , Gammie Charles F. , Akiyama Kazunori , Alberdi Antxon , Alef Walter , Algaba Juan Carlos , Anantua Richard , Asada Keiichi , Azulay Rebecca , Baczko Anne-Kathrin , Ball David , Baloković Mislav , Barrett John , Benson Bradford A. , Bintley Dan , Blackburn Lindy , Blundell Raymond , Boland Wilfred , Bouman Katherine L. , Bower Geoffrey C. , Boyce Hope , Bremer Michael , Brinkerink Christiaan D. , Brissenden Roger , Britzen Silke , Broderick Avery E. , Broguiere Dominique , Bronzwaer Thomas , Bustamente Sandra , Byun Do-Young , Carlstrom John E. , Chael Andrew , Chatterjee Koushik , Chatterjee Shami , Chen Ming-Tang , Chen 陈 Yongjun 永军 , Cho Ilje , Christian Pierre , Conway John E. , Cordes James M. , Crawford Thomas M. , Crew Geoffrey B. , Cruz-Osorio Alejandro , Cui Yuzhu , Davelaar Jordy , De Laurentis Mariafelicia , Deane Roger , Dempsey Jessica , Desvignes Gregory , Dexter Jason , Doeleman Sheperd S. , Eatough Ralph P. , Falcke Heino , Farah Joseph , Fish Vincent L. , Fomalont Ed , Ford H. Alyson , Fraga-Encinas Raquel , Friberg Per , Fromm Christian M. , Fuentes Antonio , Galison Peter , García Roberto , Gentaz Olivier , Georgiev Boris , Goddi Ciriaco , Gold Roman , Gómez-Ruiz Arturo I. , Gómez José L. , Gu 顾 Minfeng 敏峰 , Gurwell Mark , Hada Kazuhiro , Haggard Daryl , Hecht Michael H. , Hesper Ronald , Ho 何 Luis C. 子山 , Ho Paul , Honma Mareki , Huang Chih-Wei L. , Huang 黄 Lei 磊 , Hughes David H. , Ikeda Shiro , Inoue Makoto , Issaoun Sara , James David J. , Jannuzi Buell T. , Janssen Michael , Jeter Britton , Jiang 江 Wu 悟 , Jimenez-Rosales Alejandra , Johnson Michael D. , Jorstad Svetlana , Jung Taehyun , Karami Mansour , Karuppusamy Ramesh , Kawashima Tomohisa , Keating Garrett K. , Kettenis Mark , Kim Dong-Jin , Kim Jae-Young , Kim Jongsoo , Kim Junhan , Kino Motoki , Koay Jun Yi , Kofuji Yutaro , Koch Patrick M. , Koyama Shoko , Kramer Carsten , Kramer Michael , Krichbaum Thomas P. , Kuo Cheng-Yu , Lauer Tod R. , Lee Sang-Sung , Levis Aviad , Li 李 Yan-Rong 彦荣 , Li 李 Zhiyuan 志远 , Lindqvist Michael , Lico Rocco , Lindahl Greg , Liu 刘 Jun 俊 , Liu Kuo , Liuzzo Elisabetta , Lo Wen-Ping , Lobanov Andrei P. , Loinard Laurent , Lonsdale Colin , Lu 路 Ru-Sen 如森 , MacDonald Nicholas R. , Mao 毛 Jirong 基荣 , Marchili Nicola , Markoff Sera , Marrone Daniel P. , Marscher Alan P. , Martí-Vidal Iván , Matsushita Satoki , Matthews Lynn D. , Menten Karl M. , Mizuno Izumi , Mizuno Yosuke , Moran James M. , Moriyama Kotaro , Moscibrodzka Monika , Müller Cornelia , Mejías Alejandro Mus , Musoke Gibwa , Nagai Hiroshi , Nagar Neil M. , Nakamura Masanori , Narayan Ramesh , Narayanan Gopal , Natarajan Iniyan , Nathanail Antonios , Neilsen Joey , Neri Roberto , Ni Chunchong , Noutsos Aristeidis , Nowak Michael A. , Okino Hiroki , Olivares Héctor , Ortiz-León Gisela N. , Oyama Tomoaki , Palumbo Daniel C. M. , Park Jongho , Patel Nimesh , Pen Ue-Li , Pesce Dominic W. , Piétu Vincent , Plambeck Richard , PopStefanija Aleksandar , Porth Oliver , Pötzl Felix M. , Preciado-López Jorge A. , Pu Hung-Yi , Ramakrishnan Venkatessh , Rao Ramprasad , Rawlings Mark G. , Raymond Alexander W. , Rezzolla Luciano , Ripperda Bart , Roelofs Freek , Rogers Alan , Ros Eduardo , Rose Mel , Roshanineshat Arash , Rottmann Helge , Roy Alan L. , Ruszczyk Chet , Rygl Kazi L. J. , Sánchez Salvador , Sánchez-Arguelles David , Sasada Mahito , Savolainen Tuomas , Schloerb F. Peter , Schuster Karl-Friedrich , Shao Lijing , Shen 沈 Zhiqiang 志强 , Small Des , Sohn Bong Won , SooHoo Jason , Sun 孙 He 赫 , Tazaki Fumie , Tetarenko Alexandra J. , Tiede Paul , Tilanus Remo P. J. , Titus Michael , Toma Kenji , Torne Pablo , Traianou Efthalia , Trent Tyler , Trippe Sascha , van Bemmel Ilse , van Langevelde Huib Jan , van Rossum Daniel R. , Wagner Jan , Ward-Thompson Derek , Wardle John , Weintroub Jonathan , Wex Norbert , Wharton Robert , Wiik Kaj , Wu 吴 Qingwen 庆文 , Yoon Doosoo , Young André , Young Ken , Younsi Ziri , Yuan 袁 Feng 峰 , Yuan 袁 Ye-Fei 业飞 , Zensus J. Anton , Zhao Guang-Yao , Zhao Shan-Shan 
Published: January 2022

Abstract
The black hole images obtained with the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) are expected to be variable at the dynamical timescale near their horizons. For the black hole at the center of the M87 galaxy, this timescale (5–61 days) is comparable to the 6 day extent of the 2017 EHT observations. Closure phases along baseline triangles are robust interferometric observables that are sensitive to the expected structural changes of the images but are free of station-based atmospheric and instrumental errors. We explored the day-to-day variability in closure-phase measurements on all six linearly independent nontrivial baseline triangles that can be formed from the 2017 observations. We showed that three triangles exhibit very low day-to-day variability, with a dispersion of ∼3°–5°. The only triangles that exhibit substantially higher variability (∼90°–180°) are the ones with baselines that cross the visibility amplitude minima on the u–v plane, as expected from theoretical modeling. We used two sets of general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations to explore the dependence of the predicted variability on various black hole and accretion-flow parameters. We found that changing the magnetic field configuration, electron temperature model, or black hole spin has a marginal effect on the model consistency with the observed level of variability. On the other hand, the most discriminating image characteristic of models is the fractional width of the bright ring of emission. Models that best reproduce the observed small level of variability are characterized by thin ring-like images with structures dominated by gravitational lensing effects and thus least affected by turbulence in the accreting plasmas.