bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Variations of Summertime SSTA Independent of ENSO in the Maritime Continent and Their Possible Impacts on Rainfall in the Asian–Australian Monsoon Region
Authors: Zhu Jing , Guan Zhaoyong , Wang Xudong 
Published: August 2022

Abstract
The sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the Maritime Continent (MC) region are mainly related to local variability, ENSO, and the Indian Ocean dipole. Using the reanalysis data from NOAA and NCEP–NCAR, by employing the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, we have explored the principal mode of ENSO-independent summertime SSTA in the MC and its associations with regional climate anomalies. After ENSO signals have been removed, the leading mode of SSTA in the MC exhibits a uniformly signed pattern, which mainly varies on an interannual time scale. The maintenance mechanisms of the ENSO-independent SSTA are different in different subregions, especially over the region south of Java and the tropical northwestern Pacific. When the time coefficient of the first leading EOF mode (EOF1) is positive, warmer SSTAs are observed in the area south of Java. The oceanic dynamic heating there facilitates the warmer SSTA. Thus, the Gill-type response of the atmosphere is found over the region south of Java. The diabatic cooling in the atmosphere is dominant over the tropical northwestern Pacific where the warmer SSTA is maintained by the absorption of solar radiation due to less cloud cover there. A tilted vertical circulation is hence formed, linking the tropical southeastern Indian Ocean with the tropical northwestern Pacific. The anomalous circulations in the Asian–Australian monsoon region are affected by this ENSO-independent SSTA mode, resulting in decreased summer rainfall anomaly in the region near the southeast coast of China and increased winter precipitation anomaly over the extratropical region of Australia.
Temperatures of Anvil Clouds and Radiative Tropopause in a Wide Array of Cloud-Resolving Simulations
Authors: Seidel Seth D. , Yang Da 
Published: August 2022

Abstract
We present 123 cloud-resolving simulations to study how temperatures of anvil clouds and radiative tropopause (RT) change with surface warming. Our simulation results show that the RT warms at approximately the same rate as anvil clouds. This relationship persists across a variety of modeling choices, including surface temperature, greenhouse gas concentration, and the representation of radiative transfer. We further show that the shifting ozone profile associated with climate warming may give rise to a fixed RT temperature as well as a fixed anvil temperature. This result points to the importance of faithful treatment of ozone in simulating clouds and climate change; the robust anvil–RT relationship may also provide alternative ways to understand what controls anvil temperature.
Warmer SSTs in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific Delay the Seasonal March of the Asian–Pacific Summer Monsoon Onset
Authors: Ling Sining , Lu Riyu 
Published: August 2022

Abstract
This study investigates the impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the seasonal evolution of the Asian–Pacific summer monsoon. The results show that during the summers when the SSTs in the equatorial eastern Pacific are above normal (i.e., during developing El Niño), the seasonal march of the Asian–Pacific summer monsoon is delayed. Specifically, the stepwise northeastward extension of the western North Pacific monsoon and the northward migration of East Asian and Indian monsoon are all delayed, resulting in rainfall deficiency in the western North Pacific and India, and more rainfall in the Yangtze River valley but less rainfall in North China due to the delayed northward migration and resultant prolonged rainy season in the Yangtze River valley. In addition, the seasonal march of the Asian upper-tropospheric westerly jet, which is mainly characterized by the northward migration during the monsoon development, is also delayed, concurrent with the delayed march of monsoonal rainfall. During La Niña summers, however, the seasonal march of the monsoon and Asian jet does not exhibit clear variations, suggesting asymmetrical impacts between El Niño and La Niña. Furthermore, we explain these variations in the seasonal evolution of rainfall and jet and the asymmetrical impacts between El Niño and La Niña through the variations in tropical tropospheric temperatures and the resultant changes in meridional temperature gradient.

Significance Statement
The seasonal march of the Asian–Pacific summer monsoon exhibits large spatial and temporal variations, but shows some regular features such as stepwise northward migrations. The impacts of ENSO on the seasonal evolution of the components of Asian–Pacific summer monsoon have been shown in previous studies. However, there have been remarkable uncertainties in the previous results, and more emphasis has been put on the impacts of preceding ENSO. This study starts from El Niño and La Niña summers to reduce uncertainty caused by defining the seasonal march of the monsoon, and includes the variations in circulations that correspond well to monsoonal rainfall, making the conclusions more reliable.
Changes in Aerosols, Meteorology, and Radiation in the Southeastern U.S. Warming Hole Region during 2000 to 2019
Authors: Ghate Virendra P. , Carlton Annmarie G. , Surleta Thomas , Burns Alyssa Marie 
Published: August 2022

Abstract
Surface air temperatures in the southeastern United States that did not change from the climatological mean from 1900 to 2000 have increased since the year 2000. Analyzed herein are factors modulating the surface air temperatures in the region for a 20-yr period (2000–19) using space- and surface-based observations, and output from a reanalysis model. The 20-yr period is segregated into two decades, 2000–09 and 2010–19, corresponding to different tropospheric chemical regimes. Changes in seasonal and decadal averages are examined. The later decade experienced higher average surface air temperatures with significant warming during summer and fall seasons. Decadal and seasonal averages of cloud properties, column water vapor, rain rates, and top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation did not exhibit statistically significant differences between the two decades. The region experienced strong warm and moist advection during the winter months and very weak advection during the summer months. The later decade exhibited higher low-level moisture advection during the winter months than the earlier decade with insignificant changes in the temperature advection between the two decades. The later decade had significantly lower aerosol dry and liquid water mass during all seasons, along with lower aerosol optical depth, higher single scattering albedo, and lower top-of-the-atmosphere outgoing shortwave radiation during cloud-free conditions in the summer season. Collectively, these results suggest that changes in the aerosol direct radiative forcing are responsible for warming during summer months that experience weak advection and highlight seasonal differences in the temperature controlling mechanisms in the region.
Climate Feedback to Stratospheric Aerosol Forcing: The Key Role of the Pattern Effect
Authors: Günther Moritz , Schmidt Hauke , Timmreck Claudia , Toohey Matthew 
Published: August 2022

Abstract
Volcanic aerosol forcing has previously been found to cause a weak global mean temperature response, as compared with CO2 radiative forcing of equal magnitude: its efficacy is supposedly low, but for reasons that are not fully understood. To investigate this, we perform idealized, time-invariant stratospheric sulfate aerosol forcing simulations with the MPI-ESM-1.2 and compare them with 0.5 × CO2 and 2 × CO2 runs. While the early decades of the aerosol forcing simulations are characterized by strong negative feedback (i.e., low efficacy), the feedback weakens on the decadal to centennial time scale. Although this effect is qualitatively also found in CO2-warming simulations, it is more pronounced for stratospheric aerosol forcing. The strong early and weak late cooling feedbacks compensate, leading to an equilibrium efficacy of approximately 1 in all simulations. The 0.5 × CO2 cooling simulations also exhibit strong feedback changes over time, albeit less than in the idealized aerosol forcing simulations. This suggests that the underlying cause for the feedback change is not exclusively specific to aerosol forcing. One critical region for the feedback differences between simulations with negative and positive radiative forcing is the tropical Indo-Pacific warm-pool region (30°S–30°N, 50°E–160°W). In the first decades of cooling, the temperature change in this region is stronger than the global average, whereas it is stronger outside it for 2 × CO2 warming. In cooling scenarios, this leads to an enhanced activation of the warm-pool region’s strongly negative lapse-rate feedback.

Significance Statement
Large volcanic eruptions can enhance the scattering aerosol layer in the stratosphere, which leads to a global cooling for a few years. Surprisingly, Earth has been found to cool less from radiative flux perturbations from stratospheric aerosol forcing, in comparison with how much it warms as a result of increases in CO2 concentration. We find that specific surface temperature change patterns after volcanic eruptions cause this effect. The temperature change in the tropical Indian and western Pacific Ocean determines how much global temperature change is needed to regain radiative equilibrium. Our findings contribute to understanding the climate response to volcanic eruptions and are relevant for understanding the mechanisms of climate change due to changes in CO2 concentration.
Australia’s Future Extratropical Cyclones
Authors: Pepler Acacia S. , Dowdy Andrew J. 
Published: August 2022

Abstract
Extratropical cyclones are responsible for the majority of total and extreme rainfall in many regions of the extratropics, including in southern Australia. Using an ensemble of projections from 12 regional climate models, we show that both the number of cyclone days and total cyclone-related rainfall are projected to decline across southern Australia during the twenty-first century. This is a robust signal in projections across models and explains more than 80% of projected declines in total cool-season rainfall in the region. Using cyclone-centered composites, we show that cyclone intensity based on wind speed is projected to decrease but cyclone maximum rainfall is projected to increase by close to 7% K−1 in the southeast. This results in a shift in the distribution of cyclone rainfall, with a decrease in moderate rainfall but little change or an increase in extreme rainfall.

Significance Statement
Extratropical cyclones are very important for southern Australian rainfall, and they are expected to become less frequent in a warming climate. Our research shows this explains at least 80% of the projected decline in cool-season rainfall in southern Australia. However, the frequency of extratropical cyclones with very heavy rainfall may increase, particularly in Tasmania and the southeast coast, with increases in rainfall intensity in line with the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship. This contributes to increases in the frequency of very heavy rainfall in the future.
Responses of Surface Evaporative Fluxes in Montane Cloud Forests to the Climate Change Scenario
Authors: Yang Tzu-Ying , Huang Cho-Ying , Juang Jehn-Yih , Chen Yi-Ying , Cheng Chao-Tzuen , Lo Min-Hui 
Published: August 2022

Abstract
Fog plays a vital role in maintaining ecosystems in montane cloud forests. In these forests, a large amount of water on the surface of leaves and canopy (hereafter canopy water) evaporates during the morning. This biophysical process plays a critical factor in regulating afternoon fog formation. Recent studies have found that alterations in precipitation, temperature, humidity, and CO2 concentrations associated with future climate changes may affect terrestrial hydroclimatology, but the responses in cloud forests remain unclear. Utilizing numerical experiments with the Community Land Model, we explored changes in surface evaporative fluxes in Chi-Lan Mountain cloud forests in northeastern Taiwan under the RCP8.5 scenario with changes in the aforementioned various atmospheric variables. The results showed that increased rainfall intensity in climate change runs decreased the accumulation of canopy water, while larger water vapor concentrations led to more nighttime condensation on leaves. Elevated CO2 concentrations did not greatly impact canopy water amounts, but photosynthesis was enhanced, while transpiration was reduced and contributed to decreased latent heat fluxes, implying the importance of forest plant physiology in modulating land evaporative fluxes. Evapotranspiration decreased in Chi-Lan due to multiple combined factors, in contrast to the expected intensification in the global water cycle under global warming. The study, however, is restricted to an offline land surface model without land–atmosphere interactions and the interactions with adjacent grids, which deserves further analyses for the water cycle changes in the montane cloud forest regions.
Diapycnal displacement, diffusion, and distortion of tracers in the ocean
Authors: Drake Henri F. , Ruan Xiaozhou , Ferrari Raffaele 
Published: August 2022

Abstract
Small-scale mixing drives the diabatic upwelling that closes the abyssal ocean overturning circulation. Indirect microstructure measurements of in-situ turbulence suggest that mixing is bottom-enhanced over rough topography, implying downwelling in the interior and stronger upwelling in a sloping bottom boundary layer. Tracer Release Experiments (TREs), in which inert tracers are purposefully released and their dispersion is surveyed over time, have been used to independently infer turbulent diffusivities—but typically provide estimates in excess of microstructure ones. In an attempt to reconcile these differences, Ruan and Ferrari (2021) derived exact tracer-weighted buoyancy moment diagnostics, which we here apply to quasi-realistic simulations. A tracer’s diapycnal displacement rate is exactly twice the tracer-averaged buoyancy velocity, itself a convolution of an asymmetric upwelling/downwelling dipole. The tracer’s diapycnal spreading rate, however, involves both the expected positive contribution from the tracer-averaged in-situ diffusion as well as an additional non-linear diapycnal distortion term, which is caused by correlations between buoyancy and the buoyancy velocity, and can be of either sign. Distortion is generally positive (stretching) due to bottom-enhanced mixing in the stratified interior but negative (contraction) near the bottom. Our simulations suggest that these two effects coincidentally cancel for the Brazil Basin Tracer Release Experiment, resulting in negligible net distortion. By contrast, near-bottom tracers experience leading-order distortion that varies in time. Errors in tracer moments due to realistically sparse sampling are generally small (< 20%), especially compared to the O(1) structural errors due to the omission of distortion effects in inverse models. These results suggest that TREs, although indispensable, should not be treated as “unambiguous” constraints on diapycnal mixing.
Development of a sea-sediment coupled model incorporating ocean bottom heat flux
Authors: Yang Guang-Bing , Xia Changshui , Ju Xia , Zheng Quanan , Yuan Yeli , Xiong Xue-Jun , Qiao Fangli 
Published: August 2022

Abstract
Previous in-situ observations have suggested that bottom water temperature variations in shelf seas can drive significant ocean bottom heat flux (BHF) by heat conduction. The BHF-driven bottom water temperature variations, however, have been overlooked in ocean general circulation models. In this study, we established a sea-sediment fully coupled model through incorporating the BHF. The coupled model included a sediment temperature module/model, and the BHF was calculated based on the sediment heat content variations. Meanwhile, we applied temporally varying BHF in the calculation of the bottom water temperature, which further determined the sediment temperature. The two-way coupled BHF process presents a more complete and physically reasonable heat budget in the ocean model and a synchronously varying sediment temperature profile. The coupled model was validated using a one-dimensional test case, and then it was applied in a domain covering the Bohai and Yellow Seas. The results suggest that when a strong thermocline exists, the BHF can change the bottom water temperature by more than 1°C because the effects of the BHF are limited to within a shallow bottom layer. However, when the water column is well mixed, the BHF changes the temperature of the entire water column, and the heat transported across the bottom boundary is ventilated to the atmosphere. Thus, the BHF has less effect on water temperature and may directly affect air-sea heat flux. The sea-sediment interactions dampen the amplitude of the bottom water temperature variations, which we propose calling the seabed dampening ocean heat content variation mechanism (SDH).
The sea-surface heat flux at a coastal site
Authors: Mahrt L. , Nilsson Erik , Rutgersson Anna 
Published: August 2022

Abstract
We analyze approximately four years of heat-flux measurements at two levels, profiles of air temperature, and multiple measurements of the water temperature collected at a coastal zone site. Our analysis considers underestimation of the sea-surface flux due to vertical divergence of the heat flux between the surface and the lowest flux level. We examine simple relationships of the heat flux to the wind speed and stratification and the potential influence of fetch and temperature advection. The fetch ranges from about 4 km to near 400 km. For a given wind-direction sector, the transfer coefficient varies only slowly with increasing instability, but decreases significantly with increasing stability. The intention here is not to recommend a new parameterization but rather to establish relationships that underly the bulk formula that could lead to assessments of uncertainty and improvement of the bulk formula.
Updates on CYGNSS Ocean Surface Wind Validation in the Tropics
Authors: Asharaf Shakeel , Posselt Derek J. , Said Faozi , Ruf Christopher S. 
Published: August 2022

Abstract
Global Navigation Satellite System Reflectometry (GNSS-R)-based wind retrieval techniques use the global positioning system (GPS) signals scattered from the ocean surface in the forward direction, and can potentially work in all weather conditions. An overview of recent progress made in the Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) level-2 surface wind products is given. To this end, four publicly released CYGNSS surface wind products—Science Data Record (SDR) v2.1, SDR v3.0, Climate Data Record (CDR) v1.1, and science wind speed product NOAA v1.1—are validated quantitatively against high-quality data from tropical buoy arrays. The latest released CYGNSS wind products (e.g., CDR v1.1, SDR v3.0, NOAA v1.1), as compared with these tropical buoy data, significantly outperform the SDR v2.1. Moreover, the uncertainty among these products is found to be less than 2 m s−1 root-mean-squared difference, meeting the NASA science mission level-1 uncertainty requirement for wind speeds below 20 m s−1. The quality of the CYGNSS wind is further assessed under different precipitation conditions in low winds, and in large-scale convective regions. Results show that the presence of rain appears to cause a slightly positive wind speed bias in all CYGNSS data. Nonetheless, the outcomes are encouraging for the recently released CYGNSS wind products in general, and for CYGNSS data in regions with precipitating deep convection. The overall comparison indicates a significant improvement in wind speed quality and sample size when going from the older version to any of the newer datasets.
Collaboration among Forecasters to Issue Severe Weather Hazard Information and Warnings Using the Hazard Services–Probabilistic Hazard Information (HS-PHI) Tool
Authors: James Joseph , Ling Chen , Bates Alyssa , Stumpf Gregory J. , Klockow-McClain Kim , Hyland Pat , LaDue Jim , Berry Kodi L. , Manross Kevin 
Published: August 2022

Abstract
This project tested software capabilities and operational implications related to interoffice collaboration during NWS severe weather warning operations within a proposed paradigm, Forecasting A Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs). Current NWS policy of each forecast office issuing warnings for an exclusive area of responsibility may result in inconsistent messaging. In contrast, the FACETs paradigm, with object-based, moving probabilistic and deterministic hazard information, could provide seamless information across NWS County Warning Areas (CWAs). An experiment was conducted that allowed NWS forecasters to test new software that incorporates FACETs-based hazard information and potential concepts of operation to improve messaging consistency between adjacent WFOs. Experiment scenarios consisted of a variety of storm and office border interactions, fictional events requiring nowcasts, and directives that mimicked differing inter-WFO warning philosophies. Surveys and semi-structured interviews were conducted to gauge forecasters’ confidence and workload levels, and to discuss potential solutions for interoffice collaboration and software issues. We found that forecasters were able to adapt quickly to the new software and concepts and were comfortable with collaborating with their neighboring WFO in warning operations. Although forecasters felt the software’s collaboration tools enabled them to communicate in a timely manner, adding this collaboration increased their workload when compared to their workload during current warning operations.
Evaluation of the Forecast Performance for Week-2 Winter Surface Air Temperature from the Model for Prediction Across Scales–Atmosphere (MPAS-A)
Authors: Li Wenkai , Song Jinmei , Hsu Pang-chi , Wang Yong 
Published: August 2022

Abstract
The forecast skill for week-2 wintertime surface air temperature (SAT) over the Northern Hemisphere by the Model for Prediction Across Scales–Atmosphere (MPAS-A) is evaluated and compared with operational forecast systems that participate in the Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction project (S2S). An intercomparison of the MPAS against the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) model and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model was performed using 10-yr reforecasts. Comparing the forecast skill for SAT and atmospheric circulation anomalies at a lead of 2 weeks among the three models, the MPAS shows skill lower than the ECMWF model but higher than the CMA model. The gap in skills between the MPAS model and CMA model is not as large as that between the ECMWF model and MPAS model. Additionally, an intercomparison of the MPAS model against 10 S2S models is presented by using real-time forecasts since 2016 stored in the S2S database. The results show that the MPAS model has forecast skill for week-2 to week-4 wintertime SAT comparable to that in most S2S models. The MPAS model tends to be at an intermediate level compared to current operational forecast models.