Risk factors and prognosis for heart failure in atrial fibrillation subtypes in women and men
Authors: Espnes H , Ball J , Lochen M L , Wilsgaard T , Njolstad I , Mathiesen E B , Schnabel R B , Gerdts E , Sharashova E 
Published: October 2022

Abstract

Background
Atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure (HF) are common diseases that often co-exist and substantially impact both morbidity, mortality, and quality of life. Although there has been an increasing amount of research on HF in AF patients, there is limited knowledge on the association of AF subtypes (paroxysmal/persistent, permanent) with HF in women and men.

Purpose
To explore the sex-specific association between incident AF subtypes and HF risk factors and mortality in AF participants in a general population.

Methods
A total of 14,798 women and 13,197 men aged 25 years and older were enrolled from 1994 to 2008 and followed up for incident AF and HF through 2016. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was conducted to provide sex- and AF subtype-specific hazard ratios (HRs) for the risk of HF, risk factors for HF and joint influence on mortality when AF precedes HF. Participants without AF and HF were used as reference. In the analysis of risk factors for HF we included only those who developed AF, and the follow-up period started at the date of first detected AF. Models were adjusted for systolic blood pressure, body mass index (BMI), total cholesterol, current smoking, physical activity, and history of myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, stroke, and diabetes mellitus, as well as age, with age as the time scale in the regression models.

Results
Over a median follow-up of 21.6 years, incident AF occurred in 856 women (471 with paroxysmal/persistent AF and 385 with permanent AF) and 1,036 men (587 with paroxysmal/persistent AF and 449 with permanent AF). Incident HF occurred in 761 women and 930 men. In both sexes, there was an increased risk of HF when AF was present. For permanent AF, women had a significantly higher risk of HF than men (HR 10.50, 95% CI 8.72–12.66 vs. HR 8.11, 95% CI 6.81–9.67). Permanent AF, current smoking, and prevalent myocardial infarction were significant risk factors for HF in AF participants in both sexes, while hypertension was only associated with increased risk of HF in women and BMI and prevalent stroke in men. Higher physical activity level was associated with reduced risk of AF in both sexes. The risk of death increased when HF succeeded AF. For women the risk of mortality was higher for permanent AF (HR 3.83, 95% CI 3.19–4.61 vs. HR 2.98, 95% CI 2.34–3.80), while in men it was highest for paroxysmal/persistent AF (HR 3.67, 95% CI 2.94–4.58 vs. HR 2.91, 95% CI 2.37–3.57), but there was no significant difference between sexes.

Conclusions
All AF subtypes were associated with an increased risk of HF in both sexes. For permanent AF, women had a significantly higher risk than men. Several risk factors for HF in AF participants were similar between sexes. However, hypertension was only a risk factor in women, whereas BMI and prevalent stroke were only risk factors in men. In AF participants, subsequent development of HF was associated with increased mortality in both sexes.

Funding Acknowledgement
Type of funding sources: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): UiT The Arctic University of Norway