A világmodellezés 50 éve
Authors: Hideg Éva 
Published: November 2022

Összefoglalás. A tanulmány a világmodellezés 50 évéről ad
áttekintést a legismertebb és módszertanilag újítást hozó világmodellek rövid
ismertetésén keresztül. A világmodellezés fogalmának meghatározása után sorra
veszi a Római Klub és az ENSZ szervezeteiben folyó világmodellezést és a
jelentős modelleket, majd pedig az online világmodellezés néhány műhelyében
folyó munkákat. A bemutatott világmodellek összehasonlító elemzésével rámutat
azokra az új modellezési módszertanokra és fordulópontokra, amelyek új utakat
nyitottak a világmodellek készítésében és hasznosításában. A folyamatos
megújulás jellemzőit a világmodellezők felfogásában és képzettségében, a
világmodellezés eljárásaiban, valamint a világmodelleket ismerők és használók
körében bekövetkezett változások vonatkozásában fogalmazza meg.
Summary. The aim of paper is to introduce the last 50 years of world
modelling through short presentation of world models that have got reputation of
wide range in the world and have represented methodological innovation in the
history of world modelling. For this purpose after giving definition of world
modelling the paper takes one by one the world modelling activities carried out
in the frame of the Club of Rome and of different organizations of UN and their
most important products and the works running by some organizations of online
and interactive world model building as well. Forrester-Meadows’s system
dynamics model recognizing the natural resources and Ervin Laszlo’s verbal world
model considering the inner human limits, and GEO models and IPCC reports that
were initiated by the UN organizations and that define the sustainability and
place it in the centre of world model building and the organizations of online
world model building as Millennium project, JAVA Climate Model, Pardee Center
for International Futures and Futures Platform are payed special attention.
These world models have defined the characteristics of complex world problems
rooting in both natural and human/social limits. They show how the world is
running into the catastrophe in the future if the humanity does not reflect to
these limits at both the individual and community levels and finally they have
got to give definition of requirements concerning sustainability and tasks
needed to materialize them, and to the necessity of shift in world views and
social values.
The study draws attention to the methodological issues of world modelling came to
the front of research topics at the beginning of 21st century especially to the
fact why and in what ways the idea concerning the paradigm shift in the world
modelling have become the main methodological problem. In what ways the online
and interactive world modelling can stimulate that every person and community to
be able to explore and/or construct their own world model and recognize that
everybody has to do something and to change its behaviour for survival of the
human civilization.
The paper emphasizes methodological solutions and turning points that has opened
new ways in the process of world modelling and the application of their outcomes
by the way of comparative analysis of world models and changing ideas focusing
on paradigm shift. In the end the main characteristics of continuous renewal are
shaped by the emphasis of the changes happened in the ideas of world views and
qualification of world modellers, in the methodology of word model building and
in the circle of users and participants and people who becomes acquainted with
world models or world model building.