Unraveling the dynamics of the Omicron and Delta variants of the 2019 coronavirus in the presence of vaccination, mask usage, and antiviral treatment
Authors: Ngonghala Calistus N. , Taboe Hemaho B. , Safdar Salman , Gumel Abba B. 
Published: February 2022

AbstractThe effectiveness of control interventions against COVID-19 is threatened by the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern. We present a mathematical model for studying the transmission dynamics of two of these variants (Delta and Omicron) in the United States, in the presence of vaccination, treatment of individuals with clinical symptoms of the disease and the use of face masks. The model is parameterized and cross-validated using observed daily case data for COVID-19 in the United States for the period from November 2021 (when Omicron first emerged) to March 2022. Rigorous qualitative analysis of the model shows that the disease-free equilibrium of the model is locally-asymptotically stable when the control reproduction number of the model (denoted by ℝc) is less than one. This equilibrium is shown to be globally-asymptotically stable for a special case of the model, where disease-induced mortality is negligible and both vaccine-derived immunity in fully-vaccinated individuals and natural immunity do not wane, when the associated reproduction number is less than one. The epidemiological implication of the latter result is that the combined vaccination-boosting strategy can lead to the elimination of the pandemic if its implementation can bring (and maintain) the associated reproduction number to a value less than one. An analytical expression for the vaccine-derived herd immunity threshold is derived. Using this expression, together with the baseline values of the parameters of the parameterized model, we showed that the vaccine-derived herd immunity can be achieved in the United States (so that the pandemic will be eliminated) if at least 68% of the population is fully-vaccinated with two of the three vaccines approved for use in the United States (Pfizer or Moderna vaccine). Furthermore, this study showed (as of the time of writing in March 2022) that the control reproduction number of the Omicron variant was approximately 3.5 times that of the Delta variant (the reproduction of the latter is computed to be ≈ 0.2782), indicating that Delta had practically died out and that Omicron has competitively-excluded Delta (to become the predominant variant in the United States). Based on our analysis and parameterization at the time of writing of this paper (March 2022), our study suggests that SARS-CoV-2 elimination is feasible by June 2022 if the current baseline level of the coverage of fully-vaccinated individuals is increased by about 20%. The prospect of pandemic elimination is significantly improved if vaccination is combined with a face mask strategy that prioritizes moderately effective and high-quality masks. Having a high percentage of the populace wearing the moderately-effective surgical mask is more beneficial to the community than having low percentage of the populace wearing the highly-effective N95 masks. We showed that waning natural and vaccine-derived immunity (if considered individually) offer marginal impact on disease burden, except for the case when they wane at a much faster rate (e.g., within three months), in comparison to the baseline (estimated to be within 9 months to a year). Treatment of symptomatic individuals has marginal effect in reducing daily cases of SARS-CoV-2, in comparison to the baseline, but it has significant impact in reducing daily hospitalizations. Furthermore, while treatment significantly reduces daily hospitalizations (and, consequently, deaths), the prospects of COVID-19 elimination in the United States are significantly enhanced if investments in control resources are focused on mask usage and vaccination rather than on treatment.