bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Training choices toward low value options
Authors: Zoltak Michael J. , Holland Rob W. , Kukken Niels , Veling Harm 
Published: January 2023

AbstractFood decisions are driven by differences in value of choice alternatives such that high value items are preferred over low value items. However, recent research has demonstrated that by implementing the Cue-Approach Training (CAT) the odds of choosing low value items over high value items can be increased. This effect was explained by increased attention to the low value items induced by CAT. Our goal was to replicate the original findings and to address the question of the underlying mechanism by employing eye-tracking during participants’ choice making. During CAT participants were presented with images of food items and were instructed to quickly respond to some of them when an auditory cue was presented (cued items), and not without this cue (uncued items). Next, participants made choices between two food items that differed on whether they were cued during CAT (cued versus uncued) and in pre-training value (high versus low). As predicted, results showed participants were more likely to select a low value food item over a high value food item for consumption when the low value food item had been cued compared to when the low value item had not been cued. Important, and against our hypothesis, there was no significant increase in gaze time for low value cued items compared to low value uncued items. Participants did spend more time fixating on the chosen item compared to the unchosen alternative, thus replicating previous work in this domain. The present research thus establishes the robustness of CAT as means of facilitating choices for low value over high value food but could not demonstrate that this increased preference was due to increased attention for cued low value items. The present research thus raises the question how CAT may increase choices for low value options.
Biased perceptions about momentum: Do comeback teams have higher chances to win in basketball overtimes?
Authors: Morgulev Elia , Voslinsky Alisa , Azar Ofer H. , Bar-Eli Michael 
Published: January 2023

AbstractMomentum is often cited in the media and in other sources as an important factor in performance over time in business, politics, sports and other areas. Yet, academic research on whether momentum actually exists is mixed. This study aims to assess momentum perceptions in a context in which momentum could be relevant, but where empirical data have shown that no momentum exists. In particular, we take the scenario of a basketball game that is tied at the end of regulation time. We designed questionnaires where one of the teams closed a moderate or a large score gap during the last few minutes of the fourth quarter (and in a control treatment, the score was balanced during these minutes). In the first study, 107 fans and 73 practitioners answered these questionnaires. Then, in the second study, 250 additional respondents completed questionnaires containing the same game scenarios but with additional “opposite-framing” versions and a set of questions regarding the reasons for momentum-based beliefs. The respondents also answered several questions about their level of knowledge and interest in basketball, which allowed us to categorize them to fans and laymen. The responses revealed that coming back into the game by reducing a significant score gap during the final minutes of regular time was perceived to increase the teams’ chances to win in overtime (which can be interpreted as a positive momentum). Fans exhibit stronger momentum beliefs compared to laymen. Overall, respondents’ perceptions contradict the existing empirical evidence that shows that the comeback team does not have higher chances to win the game in overtime. We discuss possible reasons for the discrepancy between the perceptions we observed and the empirical data.
Why do we overestimate others’ willingness to pay?
Authors: Matthews William J. , Gheorghiu Ana I. , Callan Mitchell J. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractPeople typically overestimate how much others are prepared to pay for consumer goods and services. We investigated the extent to which latent beliefs about others’ affluence contribute to this overestimation. In Studies 1, 2a, and 2b we found that participants, on average, judge the other people taking part in the study to “have more money” and “have more disposable income” than themselves. The extent of these beliefs positively correlated with the overestimation of willingness to pay (WTP). Study 3 shows that the link between income-beliefs and WTP is causal, and Studies 4, 5a, and 5b show that it holds in a between-group design with a real financial transaction and is unaffected by accuracy incentives. Study 6 examines estimates of others’ income in more detail and, in conjunction with the earlier studies, indicates that participants’ reported beliefs about others’ affluence depend upon the framing of the question. Together, the data indicate that individual differences in the overestimation effect are partly due to differing affluence-beliefs, and that an overall affluence-estimation bias may contribute to the net tendency to overestimate other people’s willingness to pay.
Investigating an alternate form of the cognitive reflection test
Authors: Thomson Keela S. , Oppenheimer Daniel M. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractMuch research in cognitive psychology has focused on the tendency to conserve limited cognitive resources. The CRT is the predominant measure of such miserly information processing, and also predicts a number of frequently studied decision-making traits (such as belief bias and need for cognition). However, many subjects from common subject populations have already been exposed to the questions, which might add considerable noise to data. Moreover, the CRT has been shown to be confounded with numeracy. To increase the pool of available questions and to try to address numeracy confounds, we developed and tested the CRT-2. CRT-2 questions appear to rely less on numeracy than the original CRT but appear to measure closely related constructs in other respects. Crucially, substantially fewer subjects from Amazon’s Mechanical Turk have been previously exposed to CRT-2 questions. Though our primary purpose was investigating the CRT-2, we also found that belief bias questions appear suitable as an additional source of new items. Implications and remaining measurement challenges are discussed.
Bullshit for you; transcendence for me. A commentary on “On the reception and detection of pseudo-profound bullshit”
Authors: Dalton Craig 
Published: January 2023

AbstractI raise a methodological concern regarding the study performed by Pennycook, Cheyne, Barr, Koehler & Fugelsang (2015), in which they used randomly generated, but syntactically correct, statements that were rated for profundity by subjects unaware of the source of the statements. The assessment of each statement’s profundity was not based on its impact on the subject but was already predetermined to be “bullshit” based on its random generation by a computer. The statements could nonetheless have been subjectively profound and could have provided glimpses of insight and wisdom to the subjects.
Numbers do not add up! The pragmatic approach to the framing of medical treatments
Authors: Macchi Laura , Zulato Edoardo 
Published: January 2023

AbstractThe risky choice framing effect disclosed that presenting data in a loss scenario lead decision-makers towards risky choices. Conversely, a gain scenario prevents them from taking a risk. Framing effect robustness has been widely confirmed by psychological literature. However, the framing of medical treatments, based on McNeil et al. (1982) paradigm, raised both methodological doubts and contrasting evidence. Our research aimed to investigate the presence and the nature of the framing effect in the McNeil et al. (1982) paradigm. In particular, we thought that the obtained switch of preferences across frames was due to a misleading formulation of the data given in a negative cumulative frequency format. We conducted three studies: (1) we replicated McNeil et al.’s (1982) original study (N=150) with medicine (n=50), statistics (n=50) and lay (n=50) students; (2) we tested (N=180) our hypothesis by comparing a cumulative frequency format with an alternative version, namely a linear progression one; (3) we compared (N=430) the effect of different formats (cumulative frequency, linear progression and interval frequency) on choices. Our results showed that, while the framing effect is present when employing a cumulative frequency format, it disappears when using a linear progression one. Moreover, our results show that decision-makers better understand information when given in a linear progression and an interval frequency format. In the current paper, we argue that the way in which a problem is formulated plays a relevant role in the representation of the decisional task and the decision-making.
Comparing mixed intertemporal tradeoffs with pure gains or pure losses
Authors: Ma Jia-Tao , Wang Lei , Chen Li-Na , He Quan , Sun Qing-Zhou , Sun Hong-Yue , Jiang Cheng-Ming 
Published: January 2023

AbstractIntertemporal choices involve tradeoffs between outcomes that occur at different times. Most of the research has used pure gains tasks and the discount rates yielding from those tasks to explain and predict real-world behaviors and consequences. However, real decisions are often more complex and involve mixed outcomes (e.g., sooner-gain and later-loss or sooner-loss and later-gain). No study has used mixed gain-loss intertemporal tradeoff tasks to explain and predict real-world behaviors and consequences, and studies involving such tasks are also scarce. Considering that tasks involving a combination of gains and losses may yield different discount rates and that existing pure gains tasks do not explain or predict real-world outcomes well, this study conducted two experiments to compare the discount rates of mixed gain-loss intertemporal tradeoffs with those of pure gains or pure losses (Experiment 1) and to examine whether these tasks predicted different real-world behaviors and consequences (Experiment 2). Experiment 1 suggests that the discount rate ordering of the four tasks was, from highest to lowest, pure gains, sooner-loss and later-gain, pure losses, and sooner-gain and later-loss. Experiment 2 indicates that the evidence supporting the claim that the discount rates of the four tasks were related to different real-world behaviors and consequences was insufficient.
Influence of divided attention on the attraction effect in multialternative choice
Authors: Tsuzuki Takashi , Takeda Yuji , Chiba Itsuki 
Published: January 2023

AbstractThe attraction effect in multialternative decision making reflects the context-dependent violation of rational choice axioms. This study examined the effect of concurrent divided attention in three-alternative visual choice tasks. The concurrent divided attention task is considered to consume the mental resources available for the choice task. There were three conditions: (a) the task-relevant condition, in which the auditory task should consume resources across multiple levels; (b) the task-irrelevant condition, in which the auditory stimuli should consume perceptual resources; (c) and the control condition, in which the resources should not be consumed by auditory stimuli. Thirty-three participants solved 24 hypothetical purchase problems with three alternatives that differed in terms of two attributes. The results indicated that the choice proportion of the target was significantly higher in the task-relevant condition than in the task-irrelevant and control conditions, thereby suggesting that a reduction in cognitive (and/or response) resources is critical for the attraction effect.
A reflection on cognitive reflection – testing convergent/divergent validity of two measures of cognitive reflection
Authors: Erceg Nikola , Galić Zvonimir , Ružojčić Mitja 
Published: January 2023

AbstractThe aim of the study was to test convergent/discriminant validity of two measures of cognitive reflection, cognitive reflection test (CRT) and belief bias syllogisms (BBS) and to investigate whether their distinctive characteristic of luring participants into giving wrong intuitive responses explains their relationships with various abilities and disposition measures. Our results show that the same traits largely account for performance on both non-lure task, the Berlin Numeracy Test (BNT), and CRT and explain their correlations with other variables. These results also imply that the predictive validity of CRT for wide range of outcomes does not stem from lures. Regarding the BBS, we found that its correlations with other measures were substantially diminished once we accounted for the effects of BNT. This also implies that the lures are not the reason for the correlation between BBS and these measure. We conclude that the lures are not the reason why cognitive reflection tasks correlate with different outcomes. Our results call into question an original definition of CRT as a measure of ability or disposition to resist reporting first response that comes to mind, as well as the validity of results of studies showing “incremental validity” of CRT over numeracy.
Impact of superstitious beliefs on the timing of marriage and childbirth: Evidence from Denmark
Authors: Antipov Evgeny A. , Pokryshevskaya Elena B. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractWe study the influence of numerological superstitions on family-related choices made by people in Denmark. Using daily data on marriages and births in Denmark in 2007-2019 we test hypotheses associated with positive perception of numbers 7 and 9 and a negative perception of number 13, as well as the impact of February, 29, April 1, St. Valentine’s Day and Halloween. There is significant negative effect of the 13thon the popularity of both wedding and birth dates. However, some other effects associated with special dates and the cultural representations of unofficial holidays have a stronger effect. In addition, after controlling for many factors, February 29 and April 1 turn out to be desirable for weddings, but not for childbirth, implying the context dependence of cultural stereotypes. Evidence of birth scheduling for non-medical reasons is especially worrisome because of the associated adverse health outcomes associated with elective caesarian sections and inductions.
Does pregnancy make women more cautious and calm? The impact of pregnancy on risk decision-making
Authors: Chen Jing , Guo Yinghan , Liao Zongqing , Xia Weihai , She Shengxiang 
Published: January 2023

AbstractDuring pregnancy, a variety of psychological and physical changes occur in women, which may have different impacts on risk decision-making involving different processes systems. Based on the dual-process theories of decision-making, using the Columbia Card Task (CCT) as the experimental paradigm, which can trigger deliberative versus affective decision-makings respectively, this study recruited 240 pregnant women and non-pregnant women aged 20-40 as the experimental group and control group respectively, investigated how pregnancy impacted on women’s risk decision-making, as well as the possible roles played by a series of psychological factors (impulsivity; sensation seeking; emotional state) and physiological factors (gestational age; human Chorionic Gonadotropin, hCG; progesterone) in the above process. The results were as follows: (a) Compared with non-pregnant women, pregnant women tended to choose fewer cards, indicating a higher risk aversion consistent with a more conservative strategy, both in cold and hot CCTs; in both cold and hot CCTs, compared with pregnant women in the second trimester of pregnancy, pregnant women in the first and the third trimesters of pregnancy had a higher risk aversion tendency. (b) Pregnant women had lower levels of all dimensions of sensation seeking than did non-pregnant women, pregnant women in the third trimester of pregnancy had lower levels of Disinhibition (DIS) and Boredom Susceptibility (BS) of sensation seeking than pregnant women in the first and the second trimesters of pregnancy, but there was no significant difference in levels of emotional state or impulsivity between pregnant woman and non-pregnant women. (c) DIS of sensation seeking played a fully mediating role in the impact of pregnancy on hot CCT performance. (d) Both hCG and progesterone levels were negatively correlated with pregnant women’s hot CCT performances. (e) Positive emotion played a partial mediating role in the effect of progesterone on hot CCT performance of pregnant women.
The individual true and error model: Getting the most out of limited data
Authors: Schramm Pele 
Published: January 2023

AbstractTrue and Error Theory (TET) is a modern latent variable modeling approach for analyzing sets of preferences held by people. Individual True and Error Theory (iTET) allows researchers to estimate the proportion of the time an individual truly holds a particular underlying set of preferences without assuming complete response independence in a repeated measures experimental design. iTET is thus suitable for investigating research questions such as whether an individual ever is truly intransitive in their preferences (i.e., they prefer a to b, b to c, and c to a). While current iTET analysis methods provide the means of investigating such questions they require a lot of data to achieve satisfactory power for hypothesis tests of interest. This paper overviews the performance and shortcomings of the current analysis methods in efficiently using data, while providing new analysis methods that offer substantial gains in power and efficiency.
Number preferences in selected Nigerian lottery games
Authors: Otekunrin Oluwaseun A. , Folorunso Adesola G. , Alawode Kehinde O. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractIn this paper, we examined two pairs of datasets from selected Nigerian lottery games to determine players’ number preferences. Data explorations were conducted in the first pair of datasets to identify patterns in players’ choices of lottery numbers. The question whether players preferred number combinations that are well-spread out regardless of their true theoretical probabilities was examined in the second pair. In the first pair of datasets, we find that most players have a preference for small numbers especially 1 and 9. They also prefer numbers with repeated digits and tend to avoid multiples of 7 and numbers containing 7 (except 7 and 77). The most popular numbers are 90 and 1. In the second pair of the datasets, more than 50% of the players preferred selecting well-spread out number combinations than expected by chance.
Does pain make people short-sighted? The impacts of physical and psychological pains on intertemporal choice
Authors: Chen Jing , He Zhican , Sun Yue , Xia Weihai , Liao Zongqing , Yuan Jiaqi 
Published: January 2023

AbstractWe conducted three experiments to investigate the effects of physical and psychological pains on intertemporal choices. In Experiments 1 and 2, physical pain was induced by the self-created Shiatsu sheet treading method (SSTM) and the classical cold pressor task (CPT), respectively. In Experiment 3, psychological pain was induced by the video induction method. All types of pain increased preference for smaller immediate rewards. Theoretical implications and practical implications are discussed.
Carryover of domain-dependent risk preferences in a novel decision-making task
Authors: Shapiro Martin S. , Price Paul C. , Mitchell Edward 
Published: January 2023

AbstractWe investigated whether people’s risk taking tendency established in one domain (gains or losses) carries over to the other domain. Participants played a game in which they made repeated decisions between a fixed payoff and a risky option, where the outcome of the risky option depended on whether they had responded correctly on a difficult perceptual-memory task. In some trials, participants played to gain points; on others, they played to avoid losing points. In two studies, we observed the following pattern of results. 1) Participants risked less on gain trials than on loss trials. 2) This difference in risk taking persisted (carried over) when the domain changed from gains to losses and vice versa (with the effect of experiencing losses first being stronger than the effect of experiencing gains first). 3) There was no analogous carryover effect on responses to a delay discounting measure, but there was a carryover effect on responses on a risk attitude measure. We compare these results with those from other recent studies and discuss various ways of explaining them.
The effects of tool comparisons when estimating the likelihood of task success
Authors: Li Shuqi , Miller Jane E. , O’Rourke Stuart Jillian , Jules Sean J. , Scherer Aaron M. , Smith Andrew R. , Windschitl Paul D. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractPeople often use tools for tasks, and sometimes there is uncertainty about whether a given task can be completed with a given tool. This project explored whether, when, and how people’s optimism about successfully completing a task with a given tool is affected by the contextual salience of a better or worse tool. In six studies, participants were faced with novel tasks. For each task, they were assigned a tool but also exposed to a comparison tool that was better or worse in utility (or sometimes similar in utility). In some studies, the tool comparisons were essentially social comparisons, because the tool was assigned to another person. In other studies, the tool comparisons were merely counterfactual rather than social. The studies revealed contrast effects on optimism, and the effect worked in both directions. That is, worse comparison tools boosted optimism and better tools depressed optimism. The contrast effects were observed regardless of the general type of comparison (e.g., social, counterfactual). The comparisons also influenced discrete decisions about which task to attempt (for a prize), which is an important finding for ruling out superficial scaling explanations for the contrast effects. It appears that people fail to exclude irrelevant tool-comparison information from consideration when assessing their likelihood of success on a task, resulting in biased optimism and decisions.
Multiattribute judgment: Acceptance of a new COVID-19 vaccine as a function of price, risk, and effectiveness
Authors: Birnbaum Michael H. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractThis paper illustrates how to apply the RECIPE design to evaluate multiattribute judgment, reporting an experiment in which participants judged intentions to receive a new vaccine against COVID-19. The attributes varied were Price of the vaccine, Risks of side effects as reported in trials, and Effectiveness of the vaccine in preventing COVID. The RECIPE design is a union of factorial designs in which each of three attributes is presented alone, in pairs with each of the other attributes, and in a complete factorial with all other information. Consistent with previous research with analogous judgment tasks, the additive and relative weight averaging models with constant weights could be rejected in favor of a configural weight averaging model in which the lowest-valued attribute receives additional weight. That is, people are unlikely to accept vaccination if Price is too high, Risk is too high, or Effectiveness is too low. The attribute with the greatest weight was Effectiveness, followed by Risk of side-effects, and Price carried the least weight.