Does a public online IVF prediction tool help set patient expectations? A mixed methods evaluation study
Authors: Brew Bronwyn K , Donnolley Natasha , Fitzgerald Oisin , Molloy David , Chambers Georgina M 
Published: July 2023

AbstractSTUDY QUESTIONDoes a public online IVF success prediction calculator based on real-world data help set patient expectations?SUMMARY ANSWERThe YourIVFSuccess Estimator aided consumer expectations of IVF success: one quarter (24%) of participants were unsure of their estimated IVF success before using the tool; one half changed their prediction of success after using the tool and one quarter (26%) had their expectations of IVF success confirmed.WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADYSeveral web-based IVF prediction tools exist worldwide but have not been evaluated for their impact on patient expectations, nor for patient perceptions of usefulness and trustworthiness.STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATIONThis is a pre–post evaluation of a convenience sample of 780 online users of the Australian YourIVFSuccess Estimatorhttps://yourivfsuccess.com.au/ between 1 July and 31 November 2021.PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODSParticipants were eligible if they were over 18 years of age, Australian residents, and considering IVF for themselves or their partner. Participants filled in online surveys before and after using the YourIVFSuccess Estimator.MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCEThe response rate of participants who completed both surveys and the YourIVFSuccess Estimator was 56% (n = 439). The YourIVFSuccess Estimator aided consumer expectations of IVF success: one quarter (24%) of participants were unsure of their estimated IVF success before using the tool; one half changed their prediction of success after using the tool (20% increased, 30% decreased), bringing their predictions in line with the YourIVFSuccess Estimator, and one quarter (26%) had their IVF success expectations confirmed. One in five participants claimed they would change the timing of IVF treatment. The majority of participants found the tool to be at least moderately trustworthy (91%), applicable (82%), and helpful (80%), and would recommend it to others (60%). The main reasons given for the positive responses were that the tool is independent (government funded, academic) and based on real-world data. Those who did not find it applicable or helpful were more likely to have had a worse-than-expected prediction, or to have experienced non-medical infertility (e.g. single women, LGBTQIA+), noting that at the time of evaluation the Estimator did not accommodate these patient groups.LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTIONThose who dropped out between the pre- and post-surveys tended to have a lower education status or have been born outside of Australia or New Zealand, therefore there may be issues with generalizability.WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGSWith consumers demanding increasing levels of transparency and participation in decisions around their medical care, public-facing IVF predictor tools based on real-world data are useful for aligning expectations about IVF success rates. Given differences in patient characteristics and IVF practices internationally, national data sources should be used to inform country-specific IVF prediction tools.STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(s)The YourIVFSuccess website and evaluation of the YourIVFSuccess Estimator are supported by the Medical Research Future Fund (MRFF) Emerging Priorities and Consumer Driven Research initiative: EPCD000007. BKB, ND, and OF have no conflicts to declare. DM holds a clinical role at Virtus Health. His role did not influence the analysis plan or interpretation of results in this study. GMC is an employee of the UNSW Sydney, and Director of the UNSW NPESU. UNSW receives research funding on behalf of Prof Chambers from the MRFF to develop and manage the Your IVF Success website. Grant ID: MRFF Emerging Priorities and Consumer Driven Research initiative: EPCD000007.TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERN/A.