bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Variations on anchoring: Sequential anchoring revisited
Authors: Bahník Štěpán , Houdek Petr , Vrbová Lucie , Hájek Jiří 
Published: January 2023

AbstractThe anchoring effect, the assimilation of judgment toward a previously considered value, has been shown using various experimental paradigms. We used several variations of the sequential anchoring paradigm, in which a numeric estimate influences a subsequent numeric estimate on the same scale, to investigate how anchoring is influenced by multiple anchors, a comparison question, and by a newly introduced debiasing procedure. We replicated the anchoring effect using the sequential anchoring paradigm and showed that, when two anchors of opposite directions are presented, the second seems to influence a subsequent judgment somewhat more. A comparison of a target with another object before the numerical estimate was not sufficient to elicit anchoring, but it might have increased the sequential anchoring effect. The debiasing procedure, based on providing reference points on the numerical scale, prevented the sequential anchoring effect. The results are in accord with the scale distortion theory of anchoring, but other theories may also account for the observed findings with additional adjustments.
Wronging past rights: The sunk cost bias distorts moral judgment
Authors: Meyers Ethan A. , Białek Michał , Fugelsang Jonathan A. , Koehler Derek J. , Friedman Ori 
Published: January 2023

AbstractWhen people have invested resources into an endeavor, they typically persist in it, even when it becomes obvious that it will fail. Here we show this bias extends to people’s moral decision-making. Across two preregistered experiments (N = 1592) we show that people are more willing to proceed with a futile, immoral action when costs have been sunk (Experiment 1A and 1B). Moreover, we show that sunk costs distort people’s perception of morality by increasing how acceptable they find actions that have received past investment (Experiment 2). We find these results in contexts where continuing would lead to no obvious benefit and only further harm. We also find initial evidence that the bias has a larger impact on judgment in immoral compared to non-moral contexts. Our findings illustrate a novel way that the past can affect moral judgment. Implications for rational moral judgment and models of moral cognition are discussed.
Spanish validation of General Decision-Making Style scale: Sex invariance, sex differences and relationships with personality and coping styles
Authors: Alacreu-Crespo Adrián , Fuentes María C. , Abad-Tortosa Diana , Cano-Lopez Irene , González Esperanza , Serrano Miguel Ángel 
Published: January 2023

AbstractThe General Decision-Making Styles (GDMS) scale measures five decision-making styles: rational, intuitive, dependent, avoidant and spontaneous. GDMS has been related to coping and some personality factors and sex-differences has been described. In spite of its usefulness, there is not a validated Spanish translation. The aim of this study is to translate to Spanish and provide psychometric evidence considering sex differences and the relationships between GDMS, personality and coping variables. Two samples were used for this study; the first sample composed by 300 participants who completed the GDMS and the Rational-Experiential Inventory (REI), and the second sample of 361 participants who completed the GDMS, the Ten Item Personality Trait Inventory and the brief COPE scales. Participants from second sample filled in GDMS a second time (137 participants) after eight weeks from the first data collection. Confirmatory factor analyses showed a five-factor composition of GDMS with equivalence across sex using invariance analyses. Moreover, GDMS showed acceptable internal consistency and temporal stability. Finally, rational and intuitive styles were related to healthier coping patterns and emotional stability, while dependent, avoidant and spontaneous styles were associated with unhealthy coping patterns and emotional instability.
Facing expectations: Those that we prefer to fulfil and those that we disregard
Authors: Heintz Christophe , Jérémy Celse , Francesca Giardini , Sylvain Max 
Published: January 2023

AbstractWe argue that people choosing prosocial distribution of goods (e.g., in dictator games) make this choice because they do not want to disappoint their partner rather than because of a direct preference for the chosen prosocial distribution. The chosen distribution is a means to fulfil one’s partner’s expectations. We review the economic experiments that corroborate this hypothesis and the experiments that deny that beliefs about others’ expectations motivate prosocial choice. We then formulate hypotheses about what types of expectation motivate someone to do what is expected: these are justifiable hopeful expectations that are clearly about his own choices. We experimentally investigate how people modulate their prosociality when they face low or unreasonably high expectations. In a version of a dictator game, we provide dictators with the opportunity to modulate their transfer as a function of their partner’s expectations. We observe that a significant portion of the population is willing to fulfil their partner’s expectation provided that this expectation expresses a reasonable hope. We conclude that people are averse to disappointing and we discuss what models of social preferences can account for the role of expectations in determining prosocial choice, with a special attention to models of guilt aversion and social esteem.
Error Parsing: An alternative method of implementing social judgment theory
Authors: Hall Crystal C. , Oppenheimer Daniel M. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractWe present a novel method of judgment analysis called Error Parsing, based upon an alternative method of implementing Social Judgment Theory (SJT). SJT and Error Parsing both posit the same three components of error in human judgment: error due to noise, error due to cue weighting, and error due to inconsistency. In that sense, the broad theory and framework are the same. However, SJT and Error Parsing were developed to answer different questions, and thus use different methodological approaches in the analysis of error. While SJT makes use of correlational methods, Error Parsing uses absolute differences. We discuss the similarities and differences between the methodologies and provide empirical evidence for the utility of the Error Parsing technique. Keywords: Social Judgment Theory, judgment, error.
Numeracy predicts preference consistency: Deliberative search heuristics increase choice consistency for choices from description and experience
Authors: Ashby Nathaniel J. S. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractMany people exhibit inconsistent preferences when they make choices based on descriptive summaries as compared to choices based on prior experiences. Theoretically, factors that promote more deliberative and skilled decision making (e.g., statistical numeracy) should also tend to promote more consistent choices and preferences regardless of information presentation formats. To test this hypothesis, in two studies I investigated individual differences in information search strategies (e.g., the amount and direction of information search) while estimating the degree to which numeracy predicted risky choice consistency across (a) decisions-from-description and (b) the decisions-from-samples. Results from Study 1 revealed that numeracy was generally associated with more extensive sampling and greater choice consistency across paradigms. Instead of reflecting differences in logical maximizing strategies (e.g., calculating expected values), analyses indicated that highly-numerate participants largely generated consistent choices by relying on heuristic-type processes (e.g., alternated between options less and exploring options with higher outcome variability more). In Study 2, the relationship between numeracy and choice consistency was eliminated when all participants were forced to make choices after experiencing the same fixed amount of sampling (i.e., provided the same amount of information). Taken together, the results of both studies converge with and extend previous findings (e.g., Skilled Decision Theory), indicating that numerate participants may generally exhibit more consistent preferences and choices via deliberatative heuristic search during decision making.
Perceptions of water systems
Authors: Attari Shahzeen Z. , Poinsatte-Jones Kelsey , Hinton Kelsey 
Published: January 2023

AbstractPublic understanding of the water system is vital in confronting contemporary water challenges, as public support is necessary for implementing measures to address shortages and repair infrastructure. In this study, university student participants (N = 457) were asked todrawdiagrams illustrating how water reaches the tap in an average home in the U.S. and is then returned to the natural environment. We also conducted an expert elicitation (N = 15) to create a simplified, accurate diagram by which to code each student drawing. Results showed major gaps in understanding, where 29% of the student participants did not draw a water treatment plant, 64% did not draw a wastewater treatment plant, and 1 in 5 participants depicted untreated wastewater returning to the natural environment. For the majority of non-environmental students, the water system stops at the home. These gaps reveal a critical area for public environmental education efforts.
I can take the risk, but you should be safe: Self-other differences in situations involving physical safety
Authors: Stone Eric R. , Choi YoonSun , Bruine de Bruin Wändi , Mandel David R. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractPrior research on self-other differences involving risk have found that individuals make riskier decisions for others than for the self in situations where risk taking is valued. We expand this research by examining whether the direction of self-other differences reverses when risk aversion is valued, as predicted by social values theory (Stone & Allgaier, 2008). Two studies tested for self-other differences in physical safety scenarios, a domain where risk aversion is valued. In Study 1, participants read physical safety and romantic relationship scenarios and selected what they would decide for themselves, what they would decide for a friend, or what they would predict their friend would decide. In Study 2, participants read public health scenarios and either decided or predicted for themselves and for a friend. In keeping with social values theory, participants made more risk-averse decisions for others than for themselves in situations where risk aversion is valued (physical safety scenarios) but more risk-taking decisions for others than for themselves in situations where risk taking is valued (relationship scenarios). Further, we show that these self-other differences in decision making do not arise from incorrectly predicting others’ behaviors, as participants predicted that others’ decisions regarding physical safety scenarios would be either similar (Experiment 1) or more risktaking(Experiment 2) than their own decisions.
Inferring uncertainty from interval estimates: Effects of alpha level and numeracy
Authors: Rinne Luke F. , Mazzocco Michèle M. M. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractInterval estimates are commonly used to descriptively communicate the degree of uncertainty in numerical values. Conventionally, low alpha levels (e.g., .05) ensure a high probability of capturing the target value between interval endpoints. Here, we test whether alpha levels and individual differences in numeracy influence distributional inferences. In the reported experiment, participants received prediction intervals for fictitious towns’ annual rainfall totals (assuming approximately normal distributions). Then, participants estimated probabilities that future totals would be captured within varying margins about the mean, indicating the approximate shapes of their inferred probability distributions. Results showed that low alpha levels (vs. moderate levels; e.g., .25) more frequently led to inferences of over-dispersed approximately normal distributions or approximately uniform distributions, reducing estimate accuracy. Highly numerate participants made more accurate estimates overall, but were more prone to inferring approximately uniform distributions. These findings have important implications for presenting interval estimates to various audiences.
Top scores are possible, bottom scores are certain (and middle scores are not worth mentioning): A pragmatic view of verbal probabilities
Authors: Juanchich Marie , Teigen Karl Halvor , Gourdon Amélie 
Published: January 2023

AbstractIn most previous studies of verbal probabilities, participants are asked to translate expressions such aspossibleandnot certaininto numeric probability values. This probabilistic translation approach can be contrasted with a novel which-outcome (WO) approach that focuses on the outcomes that people naturally associate with probability terms. The WO approach has revealed that, when given bell-shaped distributions of quantitative outcomes, people tend to associatecertaintywith minimum (unlikely) outcome magnitudes andpossibilitywith (unlikely) maximal ones. The purpose of the present paper is to test the factors that foster these effects and the conditions in which they apply. Experiment 1 showed that the association of probability term and outcome was related to the association of scalar modifiers (i.e., it is certain that the battery will lastat least…, it is possible that the battery will lastup to…). Further, we tested whether this pattern was dependent on the frequency (e.g., increasing vs. decreasing distribution) or the nature of the outcomes presented (i.e., categorical vs. continuous). Results showed that despite being slightly affected by the shape of the distribution, participants continue to prefer to associatepossiblewith maximum outcomes andcertainwith minimum outcomes. The final experiment provided a boundary condition to the effect, showing that it applies to verbal but not numerical probabilities.
Leftmost-digit-bias in an enumerated public sector? An experiment on citizens’ judgment of performance information
Authors: Olsen Asmus Leth 
Published: January 2023

AbstractNumerical performance information is increasingly important to political decision-making in the public sector. Some have suggested that biases in citizens’ processing of numerical information can be exploited by politicians to skew citizens’ perception of performance. I report on an experiment on how citizens evaluate numerical performance information from a public school context. The experiment is conducted with a large and diverse sample of the Danish population (N=1156). The analysis shows a strong leftmost-digit-bias in citizens’ evaluation of school grading information. Thus, very small changes in reported average grades, which happen to shift the leftmost grade digit, can lead to very large shifts in citizens’ evaluation of performance. The rightmost digit on the grade is almost fully ignored.
Political double standards in reliance on moral foundations
Authors: Eriksson Kimmo , Simpson Brent , Strimling Pontus 
Published: January 2023

AbstractPrior research using the Moral Foundations Questionnaire (MFQ) has established that political ideology is associated with self-reported reliance on specific moral foundations in moral judgments of acts. MFQ items do not specify the agents involved in the acts, however. By specifying agents in MFQ items we revealed blatant political double standards. Conservatives thought that the same moral foundation was more relevant if victims were agents that they like (i.e., corporations and other conservatives) but less relevant when the same agents were perpetrators. Liberals showed the same pattern for agents that they like (i.e., news media and other liberals). A UK sample showed much weaker political double standards with respect to corporations and news media, consistent with feelings about corporations and news media being much less politicized in the UK than in the US. We discuss the implications for moral foundations theory.
Information search in everyday decisions: The generalizability of the attraction search effect
Authors: Scharf Sophie E. , Wiegelmann Monika , Bröder Arndt 
Published: January 2023

AbstractThe recently proposedintegrated coherence-based decisions and search model(iCodes) makes predictions for search behavior in multi-attribute decision tasks beyond those of classic decision-making heuristics. More precisely, it predicts theAttraction Search Effectthat describes a tendency to search for information for the option that is already attractive given the available evidence. To date, the Attraction Search Effect has been successfully tested using a hypothetical stock-market game that was highly stylized and specifically designed to be highly diagnostic. In three experiments, we tested whether the Attraction Search Effect generalizes to different semantic contexts, different cue-value patterns, and a different presentation format than the classic matrix format. Across all experiments, we find evidence for information-search behavior that matches iCodes’s information-search prediction. Therefore, our results corroborate not only the generalizability of the Attraction Search Effect in various contexts but also the inherent process assumptions of iCodes.
Is broad bracketing always better? How broad decision framing leads to more optimal preferences over repeated gambles
Authors: Webb Elizabeth C. , Shu Suzanne B. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractThe effect of choice bracketing — the consideration of repeated decisions as a set versus in isolation — has important implications for products that are inherently time-sensitive and entail varying levels of risk, including retirement accounts, insurance purchases, and lottery preferences. We show that broader choice brackets lead to more optimal risk preferences across all risk types, including negative expected value and pure-loss gambles, suggesting that broad decision framing can help individuals make better choices over risks more generally. We also examine the mechanism behind these bracketing effects. We find that bracketing effects work by attenuating (magnifying) the weight placed on potential losses for positive EV (non-positive EV) gambles and by providing aggregated outcomes that might not otherwise be calculated. Thus, decision frames that provide probability distributions or aggregated outcomes can help individuals maximize expected value across different types of risky prospects.
Cognitive conflict in social dilemmas: An analysis of response dynamics
Authors: Kieslich Pascal J. , Hilbig Benjamin E. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractRecently, it has been suggested that people are spontaneously inclined to cooperate in social dilemmas, whereas defection requires effortful deliberation. From this assumption, we derive that defection should entail more cognitive conflict than cooperation. To test this hypothesis, the current study presents a first application of the response dynamics paradigm (i.e., mouse-tracking) to social dilemmas. In a fully incentivized lab experiment, mouse movements were tracked while participants played simple two-person social dilemma games with two options (cooperation and defection). Building on previous research, curvature of mouse movements was taken as an indicator of cognitive conflict. In line with the hypothesis of less cognitive conflict in cooperation, response trajectories were more curved (towards the non-chosen option) when individuals defected than when they cooperated. In other words, the cooperative option exerted more “pull” on mouse movements in case of defection than the non-cooperative option (defection) did in case of cooperation. This effect was robust across different types of social dilemmas and occurred even in the prisoner’s dilemma, where defection was predominant on the choice level. Additionally, the effect was stronger for dispositional cooperators as measured by the Honesty-Humility factor of the HEXACO personality model. As such, variation in the effect across individuals could be accounted for through cooperativeness.
Ostracism and fines in a public goods game with accidental contributions: The importance of punishment type
Authors: Liddell Torrin M. , Kruschke John K. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractPunishment is an important method for discouraging uncooperative behavior. We use a novel design for a public goods game in which players have explicit intended contributions with accidentally changed actual contributions, and in which players can apply costly fines or ostracism. Moreover, all players except the subject are automated, whereby we control the intended contributions, actual contributions, costly fines, and ostracisms experienced by the subject. We assess subject’s utilization of other players’ intended and actual contributions when making decisions to fine or ostracize. Hierarchical Bayesian logistic regression provides robust estimates. We find that subjects emphasize actual contribution more than intended contribution when deciding to fine, but emphasize intended contribution more than actual contribution when deciding to ostracize. We also find that the efficacy of past punishment, in terms of changing the contributions of the punished player, influences the type of punishment selected. Finally, we find that the punishment norms of the automated players affect the punishments performed by the subject. These novel paradigms and analyses indicate that punishment is flexible and adaptive, contrary to some evolutionary theories that predict inflexible punishments that emphasize outcomes.
The effect of dynamic proximity cues on counterfactual plausibility
Authors: Covey Judith , Zhang Qiyuan 
Published: January 2023

AbstractPrevious research has found that people consult closeness or proximity cues when they evaluate the plausibility or likelihood of a counterfactual alternative to reality. In this paper we asked whether the plausibility of counterfactuals extends to dynamic proximity cues that signal a sense of propensity or acceleration in the lead-up to an outcome. Subjects gambled on obtaining either three heads or three tails from three coin-flips. When they lost the gamble they thought it was more likely that they could have won if they had lost on the third coin-flip that was revealed rather than the first or second coin-flip. We discuss how the sense of propensity was raised prior to the revelation of the final decisive losing coin-flip which created a perception of psychological momentum towards winning. Moreover, the consequence of this propensity effect was to positively bias perceptions of the likelihood of the counterfactual winning outcome.
Spontaneous associations and label framing have similar effects in the public goods game
Authors: Eriksson Kimmo , Strimling Pontus 
Published: January 2023

AbstractIt is known that presentation of a meaningful label (e.g., "The Teamwork Game") can influence decisions in economic games. A common view is that such labels cue associations to preexisting mental models of situations, a process here called frame selection. In the absence of such cues, participants may still spontaneously associate a game with a preexisting frame. We used the public goods game to compare the effect of such spontaneous frame selection with the effect of label framing. Participants in a condition where the public goods game was labeled "The Teamwork Game" tended to contribute at the same level as participants who spontaneously associated the unlabeled game with teamwork, whereas those who did not associate the the unlabeled game with teamwork tended to make lower contributions. We conclude that neutrally described games may be subject to spontaneous frame selection effects comparable in size to the effects of label framing.