Evidence of secular trends during the COVID-19 pandemic in a stepped wedge cluster randomized trial examining sexual and reproductive health outcomes among Indigenous youth
Authors: Anastario Michael , Rink Elizabeth , Firemoon Paula , Carnegie Nicole , Johnson Olivia , Peterson Malory , Rodriguez Ana Maria 
Published: April 2023

Abstract
Background
Nen ŨnkUmbi/EdaHiYedo (“We Are Here Now,” or NE) is an intervention to prevent STIs, HIV, HCV, and teen pregnancy among Assiniboine and Sioux youth of the Fort Peck Reservation in the state of Montana in the USA. A cluster-randomized stepped-wedge design (SWD) trial is used to evaluate NE, where clusters are schools. The purpose of this study is to evaluate whether there is evidence of a secular trend associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods
The original study design is a cluster-randomized stepped-wedge design (SWD), in which five schools that youth from Fort Peck attend are the clusters to be randomized into the intervention one at a time, with all schools eventually being randomized to the intervention across three steps. N/E is a 5-year study involving 456 15- to 18-year-old youth. For this study, we use a mixed quantitative and qualitative methods approach to understand how the COVID-19 pandemic may have been associated with the study’s primary outcome variables. Data were drawn from the first cluster exposed to the intervention and one control cluster that did not yet receive the intervention during the period in which COVID-19 mitigation efforts were being implemented. A pre-post COVID questionnaire was added to core measures administered, and semistructured qualitative interviews were conducted with youths regarding their perceptions of how the pandemic altered their sexual behaviors.

Results
One hundred eighteen youth responded to the questionnaire and 31 youth participated in semistructured qualitative interviews. Youth reporting having sex with less people due to COVID-19 reported more sex acts (incident rate ratio (IRR)=3.6, 95% CI 1.6–8.1) in comparison to those who did not report having sex with less people, and youth who reported having sex with the same amount of people due to COVID-19 reported less sex acts (IRR=0.31, 95% CI 0.14–0.7) in comparison to those who did not report having sex with the same amount of people. Youth reporting having sex less times due to COVID-19 experienced a greater number of sex acts in comparison to those who did not report having sex less times (IRR=2.7, 1.2–6.4). Results suggest that more sexually active individuals reported perceiving having sex with less people and less frequent engagement in sex during the pandemic. It is possible that the COVID-19 pandemic period was associated with a truncation in the distribution of sexual activity that would bias an estimate of the intervention’s effect.

Conclusion
Findings suggest evidence of a secular trend. This trend must be accounted for at trial end, and sensitivity analyses are recommended. Documenting and reporting on these findings encourages transparent reporting during the implementation of a SWD trial during a global pandemic, and informs endline analyses.

Trial registration
This trial is registered with the Clinical trials registry of the US National Library of Medicine at the National Institutes of Health (NIH). It was registered on October 1, 2018. The study presented in this manuscript is funded by NIH National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities (NIMHD), Award # R01MD012761-01, Elizabeth Rink (Principal Investigator). The study’s ClinicalTrials.gov number is NCT03694418.