bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
An alternative approach for eliciting willingness-to-pay: A randomized Internet trial
Authors: Damschroder Laura J. , Ubel Peter A. , Riis Jason , Smith Dylan M. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractOpen-ended methods that elicit willingness-to-pay (WTP) in terms of absolute dollars often result in high rates of questionable and highly skewed responses, insensitivity to changes in health state, and raise an ethical issue related to its association with personal income. We conducted a 2x2 randomized trial over the Internet to test 4 WTP formats: 1) WTP in dollars; 2) WTP as a percentage of financial resources; 3) WTP in terms of monthly payments; and 4) WTP as a single lump-sum amount. WTP as a percentage of financial resources generated fewer questionable values, had better distribution properties, greater sensitivity to severity of health states, and was not associated with income. WTP elicited on a monthly basis also showed promise.
The effects of losses and event splitting on the Allais paradox
Authors: Weber Bethany J. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractThe Allais Paradox, or common consequence effect, has been a standard challenge to normative theories of risky choice since its proposal over 60 years ago. However, neither its causes nor the conditions necessary to create the effect are well understood. Two experiments test the effects of losses and event splitting on the Allais Paradox. Experiment 1 found that the Allais Paradox occurs for both gain and mixed gambles and is reflected for loss gambles produced by reflection across the origin. Experiment 2 found that the Allais Paradox is eliminated by splitting the outcomes even when the probabilities used do not increase the salience of the common consequence. The results of Experiment 1 are consistent with Cumulative Prospect Theory, the current leading theory of risky choice. However, the results of Experiment 2 are problematic for Cumulative Prospect Theory and suggest that alternate explanations for the Allais Paradox must be sought.
Direct and indirect effects of pathological gambling on risk attitudes
Authors: Brañas-Garza Pablo , Georgantzís Nikolaos , Guillen Pablo 
Published: January 2023

AbstractWe study individual decision making in a lottery-choice task performed by three different populations: gamblers under psychological treatment (“addicts”), gamblers’ spouses (“victims”), and people who are neither gamblers or gamblers’ spouses (“normals”). We find that addicts are willing to take less risk than normals, but the difference is smaller as a gambler’s time under treatment increases. The large majority of victims report themselves unwilling to take any risk at all. However, addicts in the first year of treatment react more than other addicts to the different values of the risk-return parameter.
In the winning mood: Affect in the Iowa gambling task
Authors: de Vries Marieke , Holland Rob W. , Witteman Cilia L. M. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractThe present research aimed to test the role of mood in the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT; Bechara et al., 1994). In the IGT, participants can win or lose money by picking cards from four different decks. They have to learn by experience that two decks are overall advantageous and two decks are overall disadvantageous. Previous studies have shown that at an early stage in this card-game, players begin to display a tendency towards the advantageous decks. Subsequent research suggested that at this stage, people base their decisions on conscious gut feelings (Wagar & Dixon, 2006). Based on empirical evidence for the relation between mood and cognitive processing-styles, we expected and consistently found that, compared to a negative mood state, reported and induced positive mood states increased this early tendency towards advantageous decks. Our results provide support for the idea that a positive mood causes stronger reliance on affective signals in decision-making than a negative mood.
Actor/observer asymmetry in risky decision making
Authors: Fernandez-Duque Diego , Wifall Timothy 
Published: January 2023

AbstractAre people willing to gamble more for themselves than what they deem reasonable for others? We addressed this question in a simplified computer gambling task in which subjects chose from a set of 10 cards. Subjects selected one card at a time after being instructed that 9 cards were good (win a dollar per card) and one was really bad (lose all the money and end the game). Subjects could stop playing at any time to collect their winnings. Some subjects played the game, others observed a confederate. Both groups took risks beyond what was rational (i.e., 5 cards) but actors were riskier than observers. The actor/observer asymmetry occurred even after controlling for monetary outcome (i.e., having observers win prizes) and after controlling for how the question was framed (i.e., asking observers what they themselves would do as opposed to what the confederate should do). We discuss these results in relation to theories of decision making that emphasize separate contributions of rational and experiential systems.
Biases in casino betting: The hot hand and the gambler’s fallacy
Authors: Sundali James , Croson Rachel 
Published: January 2023

AbstractWe examine two departures of individual perceptions of randomness from probability theory: the hot hand and the gambler's fallacy, and their respective opposites. This paper's first contribution is to use data from the field (individuals playing roulette in a casino) to demonstrate the existence and impact of these biases that have been previously documented in the lab. Decisions in the field are consistent with biased beliefs, although we observe significant individual heterogeneity in the population. A second contribution is to separately identify these biases within a given individual, then to examine their within-person correlation. We find a positive and significant correlation across individuals between hot hand and gambler's fallacy biases, suggesting a common (root) cause of the two related errors. We speculate as to the source of this correlation (locus of control), and suggest future research which could test this speculation.
A psychological law of inertia and the illusion of loss aversion
Authors: Gal David 
Published: January 2023

AbstractThe principle of loss aversion is thought to explain a wide range of anomalous phenomena involving tradeoffs between losses and gains. In this article, I show that the anomalies loss aversion was introduced to explain - the risky bet premium, the endowment effect, and the status-quo bias - are characterized not only by a loss/gain tradeoff, but by a tradeoff between the status-quo and change; and, that a propensity towards the status-quo in the latter tradeoff is sufficient to explain these phenomena. Moreover, I show that two basic psychological principles - (1) that motives drive behavior; and (2) that preferences tend to be fuzzy and ill-defined - imply the existence of a robust and fundamental propensity of this sort. Thus, a loss aversion principle is rendered superfluous to an account of the phenomena it was introduced to explain.
Gender Differences in Risk Assessment: Why do Women Take Fewer Risks than Men?
Authors: Harris Christine R. , Jenkins Michael 
Published: January 2023

AbstractAcross many real-world domains, men engage in more risky behaviors than do women. To examine some of the beliefs and preferences that underlie this difference, 657 participants assessed their likelihood of engaging in various risky activities relating to four different domains (gambling, health, recreation, and social), and reported their perceptions of (1) probability of negative outcomes, (2) severity of potential negative outcomes, and (3) enjoyment expected from the risky activities. Women’s greater perceived likelihood of negative outcomes and lesser expectation of enjoyment partially mediated their lower propensity toward risky choices in gambling, recreation, and health domains. Perceptions of severity of potential outcomes was a partial mediator in the gambling and health domains. The genders did not differ in their propensity towards taking social risks. A fifth domain of activities associated with high potential payoffs and fixed minor costs was also assessed. In contrast to other domains, women reported being more likely to engage in behaviors in this domain. This gender difference was partially mediated by women’s more optimistic judgments of the probability of good outcomes and of outcomes being more intensely positive.
The effects of behavioral and outcome feedback on prudent decision-making under conditions of present and future uncertainty
Authors: Brown Jay C. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractOne of the largest reasons decision-makers make bad decisions (act imprudently) is that the world is full of uncertainty, we feel uncertain about the consequences of our actions. Participants played a repeated game in which decisions were made under various types of uncertainty (either no uncertainty, uncertainty about the present consequences of behaviors, uncertainty about the future consequences of behavior, or both types of uncertainty). The game required prudent decision making for success. While playing the game one of three types of feedback was placed between trials, either no feedback, behavioral feedback, or behavioral plus outcome feedback. Prudent decision-making decreased when both types of uncertainty were added. Further, the addition of feedback increased prudent decision-making when future uncertainty was present. The increase in prudent decisions appears to be from feedback’s ability to allow us to create probabilities associated with behaviors and their consequences, implying that anything that reduces the uncertainty people feel in a world full of uncertainty will increase their ability to make prudent decisions.
A short form of the Maximization Scale: Factor structure, reliability and validity studies
Authors: Nenkov Gergana Y. , Morrin Maureen , Ward Andrew , Schwartz Barry , Hulland John 
Published: January 2023

AbstractWe conducted an analysis of the 13-item Maximization Scale (Schwartz et al., 2002) with the goal of establishing its factor structure, reliability and validity. We also investigated the psychometric properties of several proposed refined versions of the scale. Four sets of analyses are reported. The first analysis confirms the 3-part factor structure of the scale and assesses its reliability. The second analysis identifies those items that do not perform well on the basis of internal, external, and judgmental criteria, and develops three shorter versions of the scale. In the third analysis, the three refined versions of the scale are cross-validated to confirm dimensionality, reliability, and validity. The fourth analysis uses an experiment in an investment decision making context to assess the reliability and nomological validity of the refined scales. These analyses lead us to conclude that a shorter, 6-item Maximization Scale performs best and should be used by future researchers. It is hoped that clarification of the conceptual underpinnings of the maximization construct and development of a refined scale will enhance its use among researchers across several of the social science disciplines.
Biasing simple choices by manipulating relative visual attention
Authors: Armel K. Carrie , Beaumel Aurelie , Rangel Antonio 
Published: January 2023

AbstractSeveral decision-making models predict that it should be possible to affect real binary choices by manipulating the relative amount of visual attention that decision-makers pay to the two alternatives. We present the results of three behavioral experiments testing this prediction. Visual attention is controlled by manipulating the amount of time subjects fixate on the two items. The manipulation has a differential impact on appetitive and aversive items. Appetitive items are 6 to 11% more likely to be chosen in the long fixation condition. In contrast, aversive items are 7% less likely to be chosen in the long fixation condition. The effect is present for primary goods, such as foods, and for higher-order durable goods, such as posters.
Age-related differences in adaptive decision making: Sensitivity to expected value in risky choice
Authors: Levin Irwin P. , Weller Joshua A. , Pederson Ashley A. , Harshman Lyndsay A. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractWhile previous research has found that children make more risky decisions than their parents, little is known about the developmental trajectory for the ability to make advantageous decisions. In a sample of children, 5-11 years old, we administered a new risky decision making task in which the relative expected value (EV) of the risky and riskless choice options was varied over trials. Younger children (age 5-7) showed significantly less responsiveness to EV differences than their parents on both trials involving risky gains and trials involving risky losses. For older children (age 8-11) this deficit was smaller overall but was greater on loss trials than on gain trials. Children of both ages made more risky choices than adults when risky choices were disadvantageous. We further analyzed these results in terms of children's ability to utilize probability and outcome information, and discussed them in terms of developing brain structures vital for decision making under uncertainty.
The application of Dempster-Shafer theory demonstrated with justification provided by legal evidence
Authors: Curley Shawn P. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractIn forecasting and decision making, people can and often do represent a degree of belief in some proposition. At least two separate constructs capture such degrees of belief: likelihoods capturing evidential balance and support capturing evidential weight. This paper explores the weight or justification that evidence affords propositions, with subjects communicating using a belief function in hypothetical legal situations, where justification is a relevant goal. Subjects evaluated the impact of sets of 1–3 pieces of evidence, varying in complexity, within a hypothetical legal situation. The study demonstrates the potential usefulness of this evidential weight measure as an alternative or complement to the more-studied probability measure. Subjects’ responses indicated that weight and likelihood were distinguished; that subjects’ evidential weight tended toward single elements in a targeted fashion; and, that there were identifiable individual differences in reactions to conflicting evidence. Specifically, most subjects reacted to conflicting evidence that supported disjoint sets of suspects with continued support in the implicated sets, although an identifiable minority reacted by pulling back their support, expressing indecisiveness. Such individuals would likely require a greater amount of evidence than the others to counteract this tendency in support. Thus, the study identifies the value of understanding evidential weight as distinct from likelihood, informs our understanding of the psychology of individuals’ judgments of evidential weight, and furthers the application and meaningfulness of belief functions as a communication language.
When good = better than average
Authors: Moore Don A. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractPeople report themselves to be above average on simple tasks and below average on difficult tasks.This paper proposes an explanation for this effect that is simpler than prior explanations. The new explanation is that people conflate relative with absolute evaluation, especially on subjective measures.The paper then presents a series of four studies that test this conflation explanation.These tests distinguish conflation from other explanations, such as differential weighting and selecting the wrong referent.The results suggest that conflation occurs at the response stage during which people attempt to disambiguate subjective response scales in order to choose an answer.This is because conflation has little effect on objective measures, which would be equally affected if the conflation occurred at encoding.
“Am I going to be happy and financially stable?”: How American women feel when they think about financial security
Authors: Miron-Shatz Talya 
Published: January 2023

AbstractBefore the recent recession evoked general dismay and uncertainty, this study examined the relative contribution of income and the concern over financial security to life satisfaction. The degree to which such concerns permeate people's daily lives could be part of the broader concept of wealth, often measured through income and debt, and could help evaluate fiscal instruments promoting financial security. Study 1 (N = 267) used econometric methods to demonstrate that the consideration of financial security was as important to participants’ life satisfaction as their monetary assets. Further, outlook on financial security adds to the prediction of life satisfaction above the contribution of income. Content analysis revealed that nearly half the participants (N = 651, Study 2) mentioned financial concerns — retirement, college tuition, making ends meet, etc. — when asked to think about “the future” in an open-ended manner. These participants reported lower life satisfaction compared with women who did not raise such concerns. The link between concerns over financial security and life satisfaction, which cannot be fully accounted for by income alone, could guide policy decisions on whether to directly allocate resources toward increasing income or to focus on creating a social and financial safety net.
Evolution of the interpersonal conflict paradigm
Authors: Dhami Mandeep K. , Olsson Henrik 
Published: January 2023

AbstractUsing Brunswik’s (1952) lens model framework, Hammond (1965) proposed interpersonal conflict theory to explain the nature, source, and resolution of disagreement or “cognitive conflict” between parties performing judgment tasks. An early review by Brehmer (1976) highlighted the potential of this approach in, for example, understanding the structure of cognitive conflicts, and the effect of task and person variables on judgment policy change and conflict resolution. However, our bibliographic and content reviews from 1976 to the present day demonstrate that research on cognitive conflict using the lens model has declined sharply, while research on “task conflict” has grown dramatically. There has also been a shift to less theoretical precision and methodological rigor. We discuss possible reasons for these developments, and suggest ways in which lens model research on cognitive conflict can be revitalized by borrowing from recent theoretical and methodological advances in the field of judgment and decision making.
Modeling sequential context effects in judgment analysis: A time series approach
Authors: Beckstead Jason W. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractIn this article a broad perspective incorporating elements of time series theory is presented for conceptualizing the data obtained in multi-trial judgment experiments. Recent evidence suggests that sequential context effects, assimilation and contrast, commonly found in psychophysical judgment tasks, may be present in judgments of abstract magnitudes. A time series approach for analyzing single-subject data is developed and applied to expert prognostic judgments of risk for heart disease with an emphasis on detecting possible sequential context effects. The results demonstrate that sequential context effects do exist in such expert prognostic judgments. Contrast and assimilation were produced by cue series; the latter occurring more frequently. Experts also showed assimilation of prior responses that was independent of the cue series input. Time series analysis also revealed that abrupt or large trial-by-trial changes in the value of cues that receive the most attention in prognostic judgment tasks can disrupt the accuracy of these judgments. These findings suggest that a time series approach is a useful alternative to ordinary least squares regression, providing additional insights into the cognitive processes operating during multi-cue judgment experiments.
What’s bad is easy: Taboo values, affect, and cognition
Authors: Lichtenstein Sarah , Gregory Robin , Irwin Julie 
Published: January 2023

AbstractSome decision situations are so objectionable or repugnant that people refuse to make a choice. This paper seeks to better understand taboo responses, and to distinguish choices that are truly taboo from those that are merely difficult or confusing. Using 22 scenarios that describe potentially taboo issues, Experiment 1 explores reasons for disapproval of the scenarios. We measure a large number of possible reasons for disapproval and a variety of preference responses (including willingness to accept), in order to test for subtleties in taboo responses. We also test cognitive and affective responses to the scenarios. Experiment 2 further explores the interaction, found in Experiment 1, between affective and cognitive factors. Taken as a whole, our results show that people are able to indicate their disapproval consistently across a variety of preference elicitation methods, that their disapproval is better understood as an attitude measure than as an economic valuation (even when the measure is in monetary terms), and that taboo responses are driven primarily by affect.
Attachment to land: The case of the land of Israel for American and Israeli Jews and the role of contagion
Authors: Rozin Paul , Wolf Sharon 
Published: January 2023

AbstractThis is a first study on attachment to national and sacred land and land as a protected value. A measure of attachment to the land of Israel is developed and administered to two groups, Jewish college students in Israel and the United States. Levels of land attachment are high and not significantly different in the two groups, with a great deal of variation. Land may become more important through being inhabited by a group over centuries. This is a positive contagion effect, and is opposed in some cases by negative contagion produced when the “enemies” live on the land for some period of time. We demonstrate a significant correlation of positive contagion sensitivity with attachment to the land of Israel. Unlike many other cases of the interaction of positive and negative contagion, negative contagion does not overwhelm positive contagion in the domain of land attachment. We also present evidence for linkages between political positions, religiosity, importance of Israel, Arab aversion, and vulnerability of Israel with attachment to land, but these do not fully account for the contagion effects. A number of significant differences between Israelis and Americans are described.
Genetic testing and risk interpretation: How do women understand lifetime risk results?
Authors: Hanoch Yaniv , Miron-Shatz Talya , Himmelstein Mary 
Published: January 2023

AbstractGenetic screening for BRCA1 and BRCA2 gives women the opportunity for early detection, surveillance, and intervention. One key feature of genetic testing and counseling is the provision of personal lifetime risk. However, little attention has been paid to how women interpret lifetime risk information, despite the fact that they base screening, treatment and family planning decisions on such information. To study this vital issue, we set out to test the ability of women to choose the most appropriate interpretation of National Cancer Institute’s (NCI) message about lifetime risk of developing cancer for a woman with altered BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes. Participants included 277 women who had not undergone genetic testing or had cancer and 207 women who had undergone genetic testing or had cancer. Over 50% of the women who had not undergone genetic testing or had cancer and 40% of those who had undergone genetic testing or had cancer misunderstood NCI’s information. Furthermore, in line with a growing body of research, we found that high numeracy level (objective or subjective) is positively associated with a woman’s ability to correctly interpret NCI’s message.