bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Cognitive reflection as a predictor of susceptibility to behavioral anomalies
Authors: Noori Mohammad 
Published: January 2023

AbstractTo study the effect of cognitive reflection on behavioral anomalies, we used the cognitive reflection test to measure cognitive reflection. The study was conducted on 395 Iranian university students and shows that subjects with lower cognitive reflection are significantly more likely to exhibit the conjunction fallacy, illusion of control, overconfidence, base rate fallacy, and conservatism. In addition, test scores are correlated with risk preferences. The results do not show any relationship between cognitive reflection and self-serving bias or status quo bias. We also find that gender is significantly related to illusion of control and self-serving bias.
How should we think about Americans’ beliefs about economic mobility?
Authors: Davidai Shai , Gilovich Thomas 
Published: January 2023

AbstractRecent evidence suggests that Americans’ beliefs about upward mobility are overly optimistic. Davidai & Gilovich (2015a), Kraus & Tan (2015), and Kraus (2015) all found that people overestimate the likelihood that a person might rise up the economic ladder, and underestimate the likelihood that they might fail to do so. However, using a different methodology, Chambers, Swan and Heesacker (2015) reported that Americans’ beliefs about mobility are much more pessimistic. Swan, Chambers, Heesacker and Nero (2017) provide a much-needed summary of these conflicting findings and question the utility of measuring population-level biases in judgments of inequality and mobility. We value their summary but argue that their conclusion is premature. By focusing on measures that best tap how laypeople naturally think about the distribution of income, we believe that researchers can draw meaningful conclusions about the public’s perceptions of economic mobility. When more ecologically representative measures are used, the consistent finding is that Americans overestimate the extent of upward mobility in the United States. To explain the divergent findings in the literature, we provide evidence that the methods used by Chambers et al. (2015) inadvertently primed participants to think aboutimmobility rather than mobility. Finally, using a novel method to examine beliefs about economic mobility, we show that Americans indeed overestimate the degree of mobility in the United States.
Comparing fast thinking and slow thinking: The relative benefits of interventions, individual differences, and inferential rules
Authors: Lawson M. Asher , Larrick Richard P. , Soll Jack B. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractResearch on judgment and decision making has suggested that the System 2 process of slow thinking can help people to improve their decision making by reducing well-established statistical decision biases (including base rate neglect, probability matching, and the conjunction fallacy). In a large pre-registered study with 1,706 participants and 23,292 unique observations, we compare the effects of individual differences and behavioral interventions to test the relative benefits of slow thinking on performance in canonical judgment and decision-making problems, compared to a control condition, a fast thinking condition, an incentive condition, and a condition that combines fast and slow thinking. We also draw on the rule-based reasoning literature to examine the benefits of having access to a simple form of the rule needed to solve a specific focal problem. Overall, we find equivocal evidence of a small benefit from slow thinking, evidence for a small benefit to accuracy incentives, and clear evidence of a larger cost from fast thinking. The difference in performance between fast-thinking and slow-thinking interventions is comparable to a one-scale point difference on the 4-point Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT). Inferential rules contribute unique explanatory power and interact with individual differences to support the idea that System 2 benefits from a combination of slower processes and knowledge appropriate to the problem.
Risky choice frames shift the structure and emotional valence of internal arguments: A query theory account of the unusual disease problem
Authors: Wall Daniel , Crookes Raymond D. , Johnson Eric J. , Weber Elke U. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractWe examine a Query Theory account of risky choice framing effects — when risky choices are framed as a gain, people are generally risky averse but, when an equivalent choice is framed as a loss, people are risk seeking. Consistent with Query Theory, frames affected the structure of participants’ arguments: gain frame participants listed arguments favoring the certain option earlier and more often than loss frame participants. These argumentative shifts mediated framing effects; manipulating participants initial arguments attenuated them. While emotions, as measured by PANAS, were related to frames but not related to choices, an exploratory text analysis of the affective valence of arguments was related to both. Compared to loss-frame participants, gain-frame participants expressed more positive sentiment towards the certain option than the risky option. Thisrelative-sentiment indexpredicted choices by itself but not when included with structure of arguments. Further, manipulated initial arguments did not significantly affect participant’s relative sentiment. Prior to changing choices, risky choice frames alter both the structure and emotional valence of participants’ internal arguments.
Effect of confidence interval construction on judgment accuracy
Authors: Mandel David R. , Collins Robert N. , Risko Evan F. , Fugelsang Jonathan A. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractThree experiments (N= 550) examined the effect of an interval construction elicitation method used in several expert elicitation studies on judgment accuracy. Participants made judgments about topics that were either searchable or unsearchable online using one of two order variations of the interval construction procedure. One group of participants provided their best judgment (one step)priorto constructing an interval (i.e., lower bound, upper bound, and a confidence rating that the correct value fell in the range provided), whereas another group of participants provided their best judgmentlast,after the three-step confidence interval was constructed. The overall effect of this elicitation method was not significant in 8 out of 9 univariate tests. Moreover, the calibration of confidence intervals was not affected by elicitation order. The findings warrant skepticism regarding the benefit of prior confidence interval construction for improving judgment accuracy.
Note on Birnbaum and Wan (2020): True and error model analysis is robust with respect to certain violations of the MARTER model
Authors: Birnbaum Michael H. , Quan Bonny 
Published: January 2023

AbstractThe Markov True and Error (MARTER) model (Birnbaum & Wan, 2020) has three components: a risky decision making model with one or more parameters, a Markov model that describes stochastic variation of parameters over time, and a true and error (TE) model that describes probabilistic relations between true preferences and overt responses. In this study, we simulated data according to 57 generating models that either did or did not satisfy the assumptions of the True and Error fitting model, that either did or did not satisfy the error independence assumptions, that either did or did not satisfy transitivity, and that had various patterns of error rates. A key assumption in the TE fitting model is that a person’s true preferences do not change in the short time within a session; that is, preference reversals between two responses by the same person to two presentations of the same choice problem in the same brief session are due to random error. In a set of 48 simulations, data generating models either satisfied this assumption or they implemented a systematic violation, in which true preferences could change within sessions. We used the true and error (TE) fitting model to analyze the simulated data, and we found that it did a good job of distinguishing transitive from intransitive models and in estimating parameters not only when the generating model satisfied the model assumptions, but also when model assumptions were violated in this way. When the generating model violated the assumptions, statistical tests of the TE fitting models correctly detected the violations. Even when the data contained violations of the TE model, the parameter estimates representing probabilities of true preference patterns were surprisingly accurate, except for error rates, which were inflated by model violations. In a second set of simulations, the generating model either had error rates that were or were not independent of true preferences and transitivity either was or was not satisfied. It was found again that the TE analysis was able to detect the violations of the fitting model, and the analysis correctly identified whether the data had been generated by a transitive or intransitive process; however, in this case, estimated incidence of a preference pattern was reduced if that preference pattern had a higher error rate. Overall, the violations could be detected and did not affect the ability of the TE analysis to discriminate between transitive and intransitive processes.
No effects of synchronicity in online social dilemma experiments: A registered report
Authors: Evans Anthony M. , Kogler Christoph , Sleegers Willem W. A. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractOnline experiments have become a valuable research tool for researchers interested in the processes underlying cooperation. Typically, online experiments are asynchronous, participants complete an experiment individually and are matched with partners after data collection has been completed. We conducted a registered report to compare asynchronous and synchronous designs, where participants interact and receive feedback in real-time. We investigated how two features of synchronous designs, pre-decision matching and immediate feedback, influence cooperation in the prisoners dilemma. We hypothesized that 1) pre-decision matching (assigning participants to specific interaction partners before they make decisions) would lead to decreased social distance and increased cooperation; 2) immediate feedback would reduce feelings of aversive uncertainty and lead to increased cooperation; and 3) individuals with prosocial Social Value Orientations would be more sensitive to the differences between synchronous and asynchronous designs. We found no support for these hypotheses. In our study (N = 1,238), pre-decision matching and immediate feedback had no significant effects on cooperative behavior or perceptions of the interaction; and their effects on cooperation were not significantly moderated by Social Value Orientation. The present results suggest that synchronous designs have little effect on cooperation in online social dilemma experiments.
Activating reflective thinking with decision justification and debiasing training
Authors: Isler Ozan , Yilmaz Onurcan , Dogruyol Burak 
Published: January 2023

AbstractManipulations for activating reflective thinking, although regularly used in the literature, have not previously been systematically compared. There are growing concerns about the effectiveness of these methods as well as increasing demand for them. Here, we study five promising reflection manipulations using an objective performance measure — the Cognitive Reflection Test 2 (CRT-2). In our large-scale preregistered online experiment (N = 1,748), we compared a passive and an active control condition with time delay, memory recall, decision justification, debiasing training, and combination of debiasing training and decision justification. We found no evidence that online versions of the two regularly used reflection conditions — time delay and memory recall — improve cognitive performance. Instead, our study isolated two less familiar methods that can effectively and rapidly activate reflective thinking: (1) a brief debiasing training, designed to avoid common cognitive biases and increase reflection, and (2) simply asking participants to justify their decisions.
A meta-analytical and experimental examination of blood glucose effects on decision making under risk
Authors: Orquin Jacob Lund , Christensen Jacob Dalgaard , Lagerkvist Carl-Johan 
Published: January 2023

AbstractPrevious research has shown that short-term changes in blood glucose influence our preferences and may affect decisions about risk as well. However, consensus is lacking about whether and how blood glucose influences decision making under risk, and we conduct two experiments and a meta-analysis to examine this question in detail. In Study 1, using a pecuniary valuation method, we find no effect of blood glucose on willingness to pay for risky products that may act as allergens. In Study 2, using risky gambles, we find that low levels of blood glucose increase risk taking for food and to a lesser degree for non-food rewards. Combining our own and previous findings in a meta-analysis, we show that low levels of blood glucose on average increase risk taking about food. Low blood glucose does not increase risk taking about non-food rewards although this is subject to heterogeneity. Overall, our studies suggest that low blood glucose increases our willingness to gamble on how much food we can get, but not our willingness to eat food that can harm us. Our findings are best explained by the energy budget rule.
Reanalysis of Butler and Pogrebna (2018) using true and error model
Authors: Birnbaum Michael H. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractButler and Pogrebna (2018) devised triples of three-branch gambles theorized to violate transitivity of preference according to a most probable winner model. According to this model, a person chooses the option that has the higher probability to yield a better outcome than the other alternative. They tested 11 triples with 100 participants and found cases that appeared to violate weak stochastic transitivity and the triangle inequality. But tests of weak stochastic transitivity and the triangle inequality do not provide a proper method to compare transitive and intransitive models that allow mixtures of preference patterns and random errors. Those older methods can yield false conclusions regarding transitivity, for example, if different participants have different true preferences or if different choice problems have different rates of error. This paper reanalyzes their data using a true and error (TE) model, which does not require these unrealistic assumptions, and which provides estimates of the incidence of transitive and intransitive behavior in a mixture. Reanalysis indicated that 3 of the 11 triples showed convincing evidence of violations of transitivity in the opposite direction of the predictions of the most probable winner model. Further, these and other triples showed other significant violations of the most probable winner model. Despite some violations of the true and error model, the data of Butler and Pogrebna appear to contradict not only transitive utility models but they also refute the most probable winner model as a descriptive theory of choice behavior.
Intransitive preferences or choice errors? A reply to Birnbaum
Authors: Butler David 
Published: January 2023

AbstractBirnbaum (2020) reanalyses the data from Butler and Pogrebna (2018) using his ‘true and error’ test of choice patterns. His results generally support the evidence we presented in that paper. Here we reiterate the reasons for our agnosticism as to the direction any cycles might take, even though the paradox that motivated our study takes a ‘probable winner’ direction. We conclude by returning to the potential significance of predictably intransitive preferences for decision theory generally.
Attentional shifts and preference reversals: An eye-tracking study
Authors: Alós-Ferrer Carlos , Jaudas Alexander , Ritschel Alexander 
Published: January 2023

AbstractThe classic preference reversal phenomenon, where monetary evaluations contradict risky choices, has been argued to arise due to a focus on outcomes during the evaluation of alternatives, leading to overpricing of long-shot options. Such an explanation makes the implicit assumption that attentional shifts drive the phenomenon. We conducted an eye-tracking study to causally test this hypothesis by comparing a treatment based on cardinal, monetary evaluations with a different treatment avoiding a monetary frame. We find a significant treatment effect in the form of a shift in attention toward outcomes (relative to probabilities) when evaluations are monetary. Our evidence suggests that attentional shifts resulting from the monetary frame of evaluations are a driver of preference reversals.
Myopia drives reckless behavior in response to over-taxation
Authors: Spektor Mikhail S. , Wulff Dirk U. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractGovernments use taxes to discourage undesired behaviors and encourage desired ones. One target of such interventions is reckless behavior, such as texting while driving, which in most cases is harmless but sometimes leads to catastrophic outcomes. Past research has demonstrated how interventions can backfire when the tax on one reckless behavior is set too high whereas other less attractive reckless actions remain untaxed. In the context of experience-based decisions, this undesirable outcome arises from people behaving as if they underweighted rare events, which according to a popular theoretical account can result from basing decisions on a small, random sample of past experiences. Here, we reevaluate the adverse effect of overtaxation using an alternative account focused on recency. We show that a reinforcement-learning model that weights recently observed outcomes more strongly than than those observed in the past can provide an equally good account of people’s behavior. Furthermore, we show that there exist two groups of individuals who show qualitatively distinct patterns of behavior in response to the experience of catastrophic outcomes. We conclude that targeted interventions tailored for a small group of myopic individuals who disregard catastrophic outcomes soon after they have been experienced can be nearly as effective as an omnibus intervention based on taxation that affects everyone.
Steady steps versus sudden shifts: Cooperation in (a)symmetric linear and step-level social dilemmas
Authors: Kas Judith , Hardisty David J. , Handgraaf Michel J. J. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractAre groups of people better able to minimize a collective loss if there is a collective target that must be reached or if every small contribution helps? In this paper we investigate whether cooperation in social dilemmas can be increased by structuring the problem as a step-level social dilemma rather than a linear social dilemma and whether cooperation can be increased by manipulating endowment asymmetry between individuals. In two laboratory experiments using ‘Public Bad’ games, we found that that individuals defect less and are better able to minimize collective and personal costs in a step-level social dilemma than in a linear social dilemma. We found that the level of cooperation is not affected by an ambiguous threshold: even when participants cannot be sure about the optimal cooperation level, cooperation remains high in the step-level social dilemmas. We find mixed results for the effect of asymmetry on cooperation. These results imply that presenting social dilemmas as step-level games and reducing asymmetry can help solve environmental dilemmas in the long term.
A brief forewarning intervention overcomes negative effects of salient changes in COVID-19 guidance
Authors: Gretton Jeremy D. , Meyers Ethan A. , Walker Alexander C. , Fugelsang Jonathan A. , Koehler Derek J. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, public health guidance (e.g., regarding the use of non-medical masks) changed over time. Although many revisions were a result of gains in scientific understanding, we nonetheless hypothesized that making changes in guidance salient would negatively affect evaluations of experts and health-protective intentions. In Study 1 (N= 300), we demonstrate that describing COVID-19 guidance in terms of inconsistency (versus consistency) leads people to perceive scientists and public health authorities less favorably (e.g., as less expert). For participants in Canada (n= 190), though not the U.S. (n= 110), making guidance change salient also reduced intentions to download a contact tracing app. In Study 2 (N= 1399), we show that a brief forewarning intervention mitigates detrimental effects of changes in guidance. In the absence of forewarning, emphasizing inconsistency harmed judgments of public health authorities and reduced health-protective intentions, but forewarning eliminated this effect.
Underweighting of rare events in social interactions and its implications to the design of voluntary health applications
Authors: Plonsky Ori , Roth Yefim , Erev Ido 
Published: January 2023

AbstractResearch on small repeated decisions from experience suggests that people often behave as if they underweight rare events and choose the options that are frequently better. In a pandemic, this tendency implies complacency and reckless behavior. Furthermore, behavioral contagion exacerbates this problem. In two pre-registered experiments (Ntotal= 312), we validate these predictions and highlight a potential solution. Groups of participants played a repeated game in one of two versions. In the basic version, people clearly preferred the dangerous reckless behavior that was better most of the time over the safer responsible behavior. In the augmented version, we gave participants an additional alternative abstracting the use of an application that frequently saves time but can sometimes have high costs. This alternative was stochastically dominated by the responsible choice option and was thus normatively irrelevant to the decision participants made. Nevertheless, most participants chose the new (“irrelevant”) alternative, providing the first clear demonstration of underweighting of rare events in fully described social games. We discuss public policies that can make the responsible use of health applications better most of the time, thus helping them get traction despite being voluntary. In one field demonstration of this idea amid the COVID-19 pandemic, usage rates of a contact tracing application among nursing home employees more than tripled when using the app also started saving them a little time each day, and the high usage rates sustained over at least four weeks.
Facilitating sender-receiver agreement in communicated probabilities: Is it best to use words, numbers or both?
Authors: Mandel David R. , Irwin Daniel 
Published: January 2023

AbstractOrganizations tasked with communicating expert judgments couched in uncertainty often use numerically bounded linguistic probability schemes to standardize the meaning of verbal probabilities. An experiment (N= 1,202) was conducted to ascertain whether agreement with such a scheme was better when probabilities were presented verbally, numerically or in a combined “verbal + numeric” format. Across three agreement measures, the numeric and combined formats outperformed the verbal format and also yielded better discrimination between low and high probabilities and were less susceptible to the fifty-fifty blip phenomenon. The combined format did not confer any advantage over the purely numeric format. The findings indicate that numerically bounded linguistic probability schemes are an ineffective means of communicating information about probabilities to others and they call into question recommendations for use of the combined format for delivering such schemes.