Innovative method integrates play fairway analysis supported with GIS and seismic modeling for geothermal potential evaluation in a basement reservoir
Authors: Elbalawy Mohamed Ayed , Balash Mohamed , Eid Mohamed Hamdy , Takács Ernő , Velledits Felicitász 
Published: January 2025

AbstractThe growing demand for clean and sustainable energy sources has prompted the investigation of numerous renewable and ecologically friendly options. Among these, geothermal energy is particularly noteworthy because of its widespread availability, compact size, and consistent, weather-independent power production. A geothermal play fairway analysis (GPFA) model was created for the study area, which is located in Békés county, southeastern Hungary. The GPFA model approach in the current study is the first model developed in Hungary to achieve three main goals. firstly, to quantitatively assess the geothermal potential, secondly, to identify the most favorable areas for geothermal exploration and development, and thirdly, to evaluate the corresponding risk levels in the study area. The study focuses on identifying and assessing three main risk components associated with exploitable geothermal systems in the study area. The risk parameters consist of the heat source, reservoir fracture permeability, and seal. Advanced 3D seismic interpretation, geographic information system (GIS), and 3DHIP (heat in place) calculator techniques are used to evaluate subsurface structural and thermal models. Two phases of seismic interpretation are used; conventional interpretation phase focused on conventional seismic data interpretation and advanced attribute generation phase where various seismic attribute cube volumes are generated. Common Risk Segment Maps (CRS) for each risk parameter are created by combining data from all the elements contributing to that risk using GIS toolbox. The resulted CRS maps of the study area three risk parameters are summed to produce a Composite Common Risk Segment Map (CCRS) map. Based on the constructed CCRS map and the developed GPFA model, the study area holds valuable untapped geothermal potential, poses varying risk levels associated with geothermal exploration and development. The amount of risk resulting from the three risk components is not equal, and the reservoir fracture permeability is the main risk factor. The GPFA model is successfully narrowed down an expansive exploration area of around 350 km2 to just 4 highly promising targets with high geothermal favorability and low risk as future drilling targets. The constructed 3D thermal capacity model indicates that the average heat content in the study area is estimated to be 65,450 Petajoules per square kilometer (PJ/km2), with a recoverable heat energy of 6090 megawatt thermal per square kilometer (MWth/km2). The recoverable heat for the four selected targets is estimated under different production scenarios: a 30-year plan, a 20-year plan, and a 10-year plan and it ranges from 7.5 to 32 MWth/km2, 11 to 48 MWth/km2, 22.2 to 96.8 MWth/km2 respectively. The findings of this study have made important contributions to the field of geothermal exploration approaches and offer valuable insights for making well-informed decisions about sustainable energy development in the study area.