bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Deriving Severe Hail Likelihood from Satellite Observations and Model Reanalysis Parameters Using a Deep Neural Network
Authors: Scarino Benjamin , Itterly Kyle , Bedka Kristopher , Homeyer Cameron R. , Allen John , Bang Sarah , Cecil Daniel 
Published: June 2023

Abstract
Geostationary satellite imagers provide historical and near-real-time observations of cloud-top patterns that are commonly associated with severe convection. Environmental conditions favorable for severe weather are thought to be represented well by reanalyses. Predicting exactly where convection and costly storm hazards like hail will occur using models or satellite imagery alone, however, is extremely challenging. The multivariate combination of satellite-observed cloud patterns with reanalysis environmental parameters, linked to Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) estimated maximum expected size of hail (MESH) using a deep neural network (DNN), enables estimation of potentially severe hail likelihood for any observed storm cell. These estimates are made where satellites observe cold clouds, indicative of convection, located in favorable storm environments. We seek an approach that can be used to estimate climatological hailstorm frequency and risk throughout the historical satellite data record. Statistical distributions of convective parameters from satellite and reanalysis show separation between nonsevere and severe hailstorm classes for predictors that include overshooting cloud-top temperature and area characteristics, vertical wind shear, and convective inhibition. These complex, multivariate predictor relationships are exploited within a DNN to produce a likelihood estimate with a critical success index of 0.511 and Heidke skill score of 0.407, which is exceptional among analogous hail studies. Furthermore, applications of the DNN to case studies demonstrate good qualitative agreement between hail likelihood and MESH. These hail classifications are aggregated across an 11-yr Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) image database from GOES-12/13 to derive a hail frequency and severity climatology, which denotes the central Great Plains, the Midwest, and northwestern Mexico as being the most hail-prone regions within the domain studied.
On the Control of Northern Hemispheric Feedbacks by AMOC: Evidence from CMIP and Slab Ocean Modeling
Authors: Eiselt Kai-Uwe , Graversen Rune Grand 
Published: June 2023

Abstract
The climate sensitivity of Earth and the radiative climate feedback both change over time as a result of a so-called “pattern effect,” i.e., changing patterns of surface warming. This is suggested by numerical climate model experiments. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) influences surface warming patterns as it redistributes energy latitudinally. Thus, this ocean circulation may play an important role for climate-feedback change over time. In this study, two groups of members from the abrupt4xCO2 experiment of phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) are distinguished: one group showing weak feedback change and the other showing strong feedback change over time. It is found that both groups differ significantly in the AMOC response to 4xCO2. Therefore, experiments with a slab ocean model (SOM) with quadrupling of the CO2 concentration are performed in which the AMOC change is mimicked by changing the ocean heat transport. It is found that in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics the CMIP model group differences can be qualitatively reproduced by the SOM experiments, indicating that the AMOC plays an important role in setting the surface warming pattern. However, in the tropics and especially in the Southern Hemisphere other explanations are necessary.
The Validity and Reliability of the Turkish Version of Self-Perceived Barriers for Physical Activity Questionnaire
Authors: Kolbaşı Esma Nur , Van Der Veer Pınar , Birinci Tansu 
Published: June 2023

Identifying the barriers to physical activity (PA) is important for comprehensive management strategies to decrease physical inactivity. This study aimed to translate and cross-culturally adapt the Self-Perceived Barriers for Physical Activity Scale (SPBPA) into Turkish and investigate its psychometric properties. One-hundred fifty-two young and middle-aged adults (mean age of 33.3 ± 12.66 years) were included. Within a 5-to-15-day period after the first assessment, the participants completed the Turkish version of SPBPA (SPBPA-T) to evaluate test-retest reliability. Cronbach’s alpha (α) was used to assess internal consistency. The correlation between the SPBPA-T and Physical Activity Barriers Questionnaire (PABQ) and Short Form-12 (SF-12) was determined to check the validity. The SPBPA-T had a strong internal consistency (α = .83) and test-retest reliability (ICC2,1 = .90). There was a strong correlation between PABQ and SPBPA-T (r = 0.709; p < .0001), indicating strong construct validity. The convergent validity of SPBPA-T was confirmed with the mental component of SF-12 (r = −.228; p < .0001). There was no floor or ceiling effect. The questionnaire had a 1.083 SEM value and its MDC was 3.00 points. The SPBPA-T is semantically and linguistically adequate and has strong internal validity and test-retest reliability to determine the self-perceived barriers to PA among Turkish-speaking young adults.
Value-of-Information Analysis for External Validation of Risk Prediction Models
Authors: Sadatsafavi Mohsen , Lee Tae Yoon , Wynants Laure , Vickers Andrew J , Gustafson Paul 
Published: June 2023

Background A previously developed risk prediction model needs to be validated before being used in a new population. The finite size of the validation sample entails that there is uncertainty around model performance. We apply value-of-information (VoI) methodology to quantify the consequence of uncertainty in terms of net benefit (NB). Methods We define the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) for model validation as the expected loss in NB due to not confidently knowing which of the alternative decisions confers the highest NB. We propose bootstrap-based and asymptotic methods for EVPI computations and conduct simulation studies to compare their performance. In a case study, we use the non-US subsets of a clinical trial as the development sample for predicting mortality after myocardial infarction and calculate the validation EVPI for the US subsample. Results The computation methods generated similar EVPI values in simulation studies. EVPI generally declined with larger samples. In the case study, at the prespecified threshold of 0.02, the best decision with current information would be to use the model, with an incremental NB of 0.0020 over treating all. At this threshold, the EVPI was 0.0005 (relative EVPI = 25%). When scaled to the annual number of heart attacks in the US, the expected NB loss due to uncertainty was equal to 400 true positives or 19,600 false positives, indicating the value of further model validation. Conclusion VoI methods can be applied to the NB calculated during external validation of clinical prediction models. While uncertainty does not directly affect the clinical implications of NB findings, validation EVPI provides an objective perspective to the need for further validation and can be reported alongside NB in external validation studies. Highlights External validation is a critical step when transporting a risk prediction model to a new setting, but the finite size of the validation sample creates uncertainty about the performance of the model. In decision theory, such uncertainty is associated with loss of net benefit because it can prevent one from identifying whether the use of the model is beneficial over alternative strategies. We define the expected value of perfect information for external validation as the expected loss in net benefit by not confidently knowing if the use of the model is net beneficial. The adoption of a model for a new population should be based on its expected net benefit; independently, value-of-information methods can be used to decide whether further validation studies are warranted.
Distributional Obstacles to International Environmental Policy: The Failures at Rio and Prospects after Rio1
Authors: Martinez-Alier J. 
Published: June 2023

The concept of ‘sustainable development’ as used by the Brundtland Commission was meant to separate environmental policy from distributional conflicts. Increases in income sometimes are beneficial for the environment (for instance, they allow the use of domestic cooking fuels which in some ways are less damaging to the environment), but higher incomes have meant higher emissions of greenhouse gases, and higher rates of genetic erosion. In the aftermath of the Rio conference of June 1992, this article analyses some unavoidable links between distributional conflicts and environmental policy. Often, environmental movements have tried to keep environmental resources and services outside the market, but there are now attempts to establish property rights on, and to give money values to environmental resources and services, such as agricultural genetic resources and the CO 2 absorption facility provided by the oceans and new vegetation. European ‘green’ proposals to impose an ‘eco-tax’, and proposals from India to create a world market for CO2 emission permits are considered. The issue raised by the growing Third World agroecology movement, of payment of ‘farmers’ rights’ for in situ agricultural biodiversity is discussed. The article includes a short discussion of the North American free trade agreement (NAFTA) between Mexico and the USA, in so far as it involves so-called ‘ecological dumping’, i.e. trading at values which do not include environmental costs. In the last sections, the article asks how prices in ecologically-extended markets would be formed, how much such prices will depend on distribution, and how much (or how little) such payments would change distribution of income. Environmental movements of the Poor are faced with the dilemma of keeping environmental resources and services out of the market, or else asking for property rights to be placed on them.
Artefacts and Functions: A Note on the Value of Nature
Authors: Katz Eric 
Published: June 2023

This paper examines and compares the ontological and axiological character of artefacts – human creations – with nonhuman natural entities. The essential difference between artefacts and natural entities is that the former are always the result of human intention and design, while the latter are independent of human purpose. Artefacts have functions; natural entities do not. The connection to human intentional purpose implies a different kind of value for artefacts. Artefacts are evaluated solely by their instrumental (and anthropocentric) use, while natural entities can be appreciated for their independent and autonomous existence.
Poverty, Puritanism and Environmental Conflict
Authors: Brennan Andrew 
Published: June 2023

The paper proposes two ideas: (1) The wilderness preservation movement has failed to identify key elements involved in situations of environmental conflict. (2) The same movement seems unaware of its location within a tradition which is both elitist and Puritan. Holmes Rolston's recent work on the apparent conflict between feeding people and saving nature appears to exemplify the two points. With respect to point (1), Rolston's treatment fails to address the institutional and structural features which set the agenda for individual human lives. The human ecology of environmental destruction cannot ignore the role of corporate actors such as banks, national governments, transnational corporations, trade unions and so on. These agents interact with each other in various ways and also have an internal structure – perhaps akin to Arthur Koestler's conception of the holarchy - which enables people working within them to avoid taking responsibility for policies that have damaging environmental consequences. As far as thesis (2) is concerned, Rolston's work shares common features with Arne Naess's deep ecology and Aldo Leopold's land ethic. All of these writers draw, perhaps unconsciously, on a tradition of sporting elitism associated with the Great White Hunter. One variety of this tradition combines elitism with a form of Puritanism
Transcriptomic analysis provides insight into the genetic regulation of shade avoidance in Aegilops tauschii
Authors: Xie Die , Hao Ming , Zhao Laibin , Chen Xue , Chen Xuejiao , Jiang Bo , Ning Shunzong , Yuan Zhongwei , Zhang Lianquan , Shu Kai , Zhang Yijing , Liu Dengcai , Wu Peipei 
Published: June 2023

Abstract
Background
Weeds are not only economically important but also fascinating models for studying the adaptation of species in human-mediated environments. Aegilops tauschii is the D-genome donor species of common wheat but is also a weed that influences wheat production. How shading stress caused by adjacent wheat plants affects Ae. tauschii growth is a fundamental scientific question but is also important in agriculture, such as for weed control and wheat breeding.

Result
The present study indicated that shade avoidance is a strategy of Ae. tauschii in response to shading stress. Ae. tauschii plants exhibited growth increases in specific organs, such as stem and leaf elongation, to avoid shading. However, these changes were accompanied by sacrificing the growth of other parts of the plants, such as a reduction in tiller number. The two reverse phenotype responses seem to be formed by systemically regulating the expression of different genes. Fifty-six genes involved in the regulation of cell division and cell expansion were found to be downregulated, and one key upstream negative regulator (RPK2) of cell division was upregulated under shading stress. On the other hand, the upregulated genes under shading stress were mainly enriched in protein serine/threonine kinase activity and carbon metabolism, which are associated with cell enlargement, signal transduction and energy supply. The transcription factor WRKY72 may be important in regulating genes in response to shading stress, which can be used as a prior candidate gene for further study on the genetic regulation of shade avoidance.

Conclusions
This study sheds new light on the gene expression changes and molecular processes involved in the response and avoidance of Ae. tauschii to shading stress, which may aid more effective development of shading stress avoidance or cultivars in wheat and other crops in the future.
Protocol for a prospective study evaluating circulating tumour cells status to predict radical prostatectomy treatment failure in localised prostate cancer patients (C-ProMeta-1)
Authors: Al-Hammouri Tarek , Almeida-Magana Ricardo , Lawrence Rachel , Duffy Tom , White Laura , Burke Edwina , Kudahetti Sakunthala , Collins Justin , Rajan Prabhakar , Berney Daniel , Gabe Rhian , Shaw Greg , Lu Yong-Jie 
Published: June 2023

Abstract
Background
Treatment decisions in prostate cancer (PCa) rely on disease stratification between localised and metastatic stages, but current imaging staging technologies are not sensitive to micro-metastatic disease. Circulating tumour cells (CTCs) status is a promising tool in this regard. The Parsortix® CTC isolation system employs an epitope-independent approach based on cell size and deformability to increase the capture rate of CTCs. Here, we present a protocol for prospective evaluation of this method to predict post radical prostatectomy (RP) PCa cancer recurrence.

Methods
We plan to recruit 294 patients diagnosed with unfavourable intermediate, to high and very high-risk localised PCa. Exclusion criteria include synchronous cancer diagnosis or prior PCa treatment, including hormone therapy. RP is performed according to the standard of care. Two blood samples (20 ml) are collected before and again 3-months after RP. The clinical team are blinded to CTC results and the laboratory researchers are blinded to clinical information. Treatment failure is defined as a PSA ≥ 0.2 mg/ml, start of salvage treatment or imaging-proven metastatic lesions. The CTC analysis entails enumeration and RNA analysis of gene expression in captured CTCs. The primary outcome is the accuracy of CTC status to predict post-RP treatment failure at 4.5 years. Observed sensitivity, positive and negative predictive values will be reported. Specificity will be presented over time.

Discussion
CTC status may reflect the true potential for PCa metastasis and may predict clinical outcomes better than the current PCa progression risk grading systems. Therefore establishing a robust biomarker for predicting treatment failure in localized high-risk PCa would significantly enhance guidance in treatment decision-making, optimizing cure rates while minimizing unnecessary harm from overtreatment.

Trial registration
ISRCTN17332543.
Impact of radiographic honeycombing on transplant free survival and efficacy of immunosuppression in fibrotic hypersensitivity pneumonitis
Authors: Adams Traci N. , Batra Kiran , Kypreos Margaret , Glazer Craig S. 
Published: June 2023

Abstract
Background
The distinction between hypersensitivity pneumonitis (HP) and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) was thought to be important due to the difference in mortality between the conditions as well as the response to treatment. However, recent work suggests that the clinical diagnosis may matter less than certain radiographic features, namely usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP) pattern. The purpose of this study is to evaluate whether radiographic honeycombing is more predictive of transplant-free survival (TFS) than other clinical, radiographic, or histologic findings that distinguish HP from IPF in the current guidelines and to evaluate the impact of radiographic honeycombing on the efficacy of immunosuppression in fibrotic HP.

Methods
We retrospectively identified IPF and fibrotic HP patients evaluated between 2003 and 2019. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression was performed for patients with fibrotic HP and IPF to evaluate TFS. To assess the impact of treatment with immunosuppression on TFS in fibrotic HP, a cox proportional hazard model adjusted for known predictors of survival in HP including age, gender, and baseline pulmonary function testing results was constructed, and p-interaction for the presence of honeycombing on high resolution computed tomography and use of immunosuppression was calculated.

Results
Our cohort included 178 with IPF and 198 with fibrotic HP. In a multivariable analysis, the presence of honeycombing had a greater impact on the TFS than the diagnosis of HP vs. IPF. Among the criteria used in the HP diagnostic guidelines, only typical HP scan impacted survival in a multivariable model, while identification of antigen and surgical lung biopsy findings had no impact on survival. We identified a trend toward worse survival on immunosuppression in those with HP with radiographic honeycombing.

Conclusion
Our data suggests that honeycombing and baseline pulmonary function testing have a greater impact on TFS than the clinical diagnosis of IPF vs. fibrotic HP and that radiographic honeycombing is a predictor of poor TFS in fibrotic HP. We suggest that invasive diagnostic testing including surgical lung biopsy may not be useful in predicting mortality in HP patients with honeycombing and may potentially increase risk of immunosuppression.
Developing the marine medicine syllabus for medical sciences students: a multiphase design study
Authors: Heydari Farshad , Nobakht Mohammad , Vahedian-Azimi Amir , Mirzamani Seyed Shahram , Moradian Seyed Tayeb , Ebadi Abbas , Morandini Morteza Kameli 
Published: June 2023

AbstractBackgroundMarine medicine is one of the medical fields that deals with the health and safety of people related to the sea but the marine medicine syllabus for education to the students is not specified yet. The present study aimed to develop the marine medicine syllabus to medical sciences students education.MethodsThis study was conducted in three phases. First, a literature review was conducted to find the concepts and topics related to marine medicine. Second, a content analysis research method was conducted. Data collection was done first by using semi-structured interviews with the 12 experts in marine medicine. Sampling was purposeful and continued until data saturation was reached. The information obtained from the interviews was analyzed by conventional content analysis with Geranheim's method. The found topics in the literature review and content analysis of interviews were combined and formed the initial draft of the marine medicine syllabus, which was validated with the Delphi method in the third phase. The Delphi was conducted in two rounds and the panel consisted of 18 experts in the field of marine medicine. After the completion of each round, the items that had less than 80% consensus among the participants were removed and the remaining topics after round two formed the final syllabus of the marine medicine.ResultsThe findings showed that the marine medicine syllabus should include an overview of marine medicine, health at sea, common physical diseases and injuries at sea, subsurface medicine and hyperbaric, safety action in marine incidents, medical care at sea, psychology at sea and medical examinations of people working at sea main topics and their sub topics.ConclusionsMarine medicine is an extent and specialized medical field which has been neglected and it is necessary to teach this lesson to medical sciences students with the syllabus found in the present study.