bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Implementation of the Multiple-Measure Maximum Likelihood strategy classification method in R: Addendum to Glöckner (2009) and practical guide for application
Authors: Jekel Marc , Nicklisch Andreas , Glöckner Andreas 
Published: January 2023

AbstractOne major challenge to behavioral decision research is to identify the cognitive processes underlying judgment and decision making. Glöckner (2009) has argued that, compared to previous methods, process models can be more efficiently tested by simultaneously analyzing choices, decision times, and confidence judgments. The Multiple-Measure Maximum Likelihood (MM-ML) strategy classification method was developed for this purpose and implemented as a ready-to-use routine in STATA, a commercial package for statistical data analysis. In the present article, we describe the implementation of MM-ML in R, a free package for data analysis under the GNU general public license, and we provide a practical guide to application. We also provide MM-ML as an easy-to-use R function. Thus, prior knowledge of R programming is not necessary for those interested in using MM-ML.
The recognition heuristic: A decade of research
Authors: Gigerenzer Gerd , Goldstein Daniel G. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractThe recognition heuristic exploits the basic psychological capacity for recognition in order to make inferences about unknown quantities in the world. In this article, we review and clarify issues that emerged from our initial work (Goldstein & Gigerenzer, 1999, 2002), including the distinction between a recognition and an evaluation process. There is now considerable evidence that (i) the recognition heuristic predicts the inferences of a substantial proportion of individuals consistently, even in the presence of one or more contradicting cues, (ii) people are adaptive decision makers in that accordance increases with larger recognition validity and decreases in situations when the validity is low or wholly indeterminable, and (iii) in the presence of contradicting cues, some individuals appear to select different strategies. Little is known about these individual differences, or how to precisely model the alternative strategies. Although some researchers have attributed judgments inconsistent with the use of the recognition heuristic to compensatory processing, little research on such compensatory models has been reported. We discuss extensions of the recognition model, open questions, unanticipated results, and the surprising predictive power of recognition in forecasting.
Cue integration vs. exemplar-based reasoning in multi-attribute decisions from memory: A matter of cue representation
Authors: Bröder Arndt , Newell Ben R. , Platzer Christine 
Published: January 2023

AbstractInferences about target variables can be achieved by deliberate integration of probabilistic cues or by retrieving similar cue-patterns (exemplars) from memory. In tasks with cue information presented in on-screen displays, rule-based strategies tend to dominate unless the abstraction of cue-target relations is unfeasible. This dominance has also been demonstrated — surprisingly — in experiments that demanded the retrieval of cue values from memory (M. Persson & J. Rieskamp, 2009). In three modified replications involving a fictitious disease, binary cue values were represented either by alternative symptoms (e.g.,fevervs.hypothermia) or by symptom presence vs. absence (e.g.,fevervs.no fever). The former representation might hinder cue abstraction. The cues were predictive of the severity of the disease, and participants had to infer in each trial who of two patients was sicker. Both experiments replicated the rule-dominance with present-absent cues but yielded higher percentages of exemplar-based strategies with alternative cues. The experiments demonstrate that a change in cue representation may induce a dramatic shift from rule-based to exemplar-based reasoning in formally identical tasks.
The influence of the ratio bias phenomenon on the elicitation of health states utilities
Authors: Pinto-Prades José-Luis , Martinez-Perez Jorge-Eduardo , Abellán-Perpiñán José-María 
Published: January 2023

AbstractThis paper tests whether logically equivalent risk formats can lead to different health state utilities elicited by means of the traditional standard gamble (SG) method and a modified version of the method that we call “double lottery.” We compare utilities for health states elicited when probabilities are framed in terms of frequencies with respect to 100 people in the population (i.e., X out of 100 who follow a medical treatment will die) with SG utilities elicited for frequencies with respect to 1,000 people in the population (i.e., Y out of 1,000 who follow a medical treatment will die). We found that people accepted a lower risk of death when success and failure probabilities were framed as frequencies type “Y deaths out of 1,000” rather than as frequencies type “X deaths out of 100” and hence the utilities for health outcomes were higher when the denominator was 1000 than when it was 100. This framing effect, known as Ratio Bias, may have important consequences in resource allocation decisions.
The impact of excess choice on deferment of decisions to volunteer
Authors: Carroll Lauren S. , White Mathew P. , Pahl Sabine 
Published: January 2023

AbstractExcess choice has previously been shown to have detrimental effects on decisions about consumer products. As the number of options increases, people are more likely to put off making an active choice (i.e., defer) and show less satisfaction with any purchase actually made. We extend this line of enquiry to choosing a charitable organisation to volunteer for. The issue is important because the number of voluntary organisations is enormous and the impact of such a decision may be greater than for consumer decisions in terms of time commitment and benefits to the volunteer and society. Study 1 asked students to examine a real volunteering website and record how many organisations they considered, decision difficulty and whether or not they would like to sign up for a chosen organisation or prefer to defer a decision. Study 2 presented either a relatively small (10) or large (30) choice set of hypothetical organisations and measured deferment likelihood and decision difficulty. In both studies the more options considered, the greater the likelihood to defer. This effect was mediated by decision difficulty. This research is the first to find that detrimental effects of excess choice extend to volunteering. Implications for volunteer recruitment are discussed.
Numeracy as a precursor to pro-social behavior: The impact of numeracy and presentation format on the cognitive mechanisms underlying donation decisions
Authors: Dickert Stephan , Kleber Janet , Peters Ellen , Slovic Paul 
Published: January 2023

AbstractDonation requests often convey numerical information about the people in need. In two studies we investigated the effects of numeracy and presentation format on the underlying affective and cognitive mechanisms of donation decisions. In Study 1, participants were presented with information about a victim in need, either in a frequency format or in a percentage format. In Study 2, we manipulated the identifiability and number of target victims. Our results demonstrate that donations of individuals lower in numeracy were more susceptible to changes in numeric presentation format than those higher in numeracy. Importantly, the underlying mechanisms for donations differed by numeracy. Whereas the mental image of the victim influenced donation decisions of less numerate people only, the estimated impact of a donation was positively correlated with donation amounts for both more and less numerate individuals.
Evaluating the coherence of Take-the-best in structured environments
Authors: Lee Michael D. , Zhang Shunan 
Published: January 2023

AbstractHeuristic decision-making models, like Take-the-best, rely on environmental regularities. They conduct a limited search, and ignore available information, by assuming there is structure in the decision-making environment. Take-the-best relies on at least two regularities:diminishing returns, which says that information found earlier in search is more important than information found later; andcorrelated information, which says that information found early in search is predictive of information found later. We develop new approaches to determining search orders, and to measuring cue discriminability, that make the reliance of Take-the-best on these regularities clear, and open to manipulation. We then demonstrate, in the well-studied German cities environment, and three new city environments, when and how these regularities support Take-the-best. To do this, we focus not on the accuracy of Take-the-best, as most previous studies have, but on a measure of its coherence as a decision-making process. In particular, we consider whether Take-the-best decisions, based on a single piece of information, can be justified because an exhaustive search for information is unlikely to yield a different decision. Using this measure, we show that when the two environmental regularities are present, the decisions made by limited search are unlikely to have changed after exhaustive search, but that both regularities are often necessary.
Back or to the future? Preferences of time travelers
Authors: Ettlin Florence , Hertwig Ralph 
Published: January 2023

AbstractPopular culture reflects whatever piques our imagination. Think of the myriad movies and books that take viewers and readers on an imaginary journey to the past or the future (e.g., Gladiator, The Time Machine). Despite the ubiquity of time travel as a theme in cultural expression, the factors that underlie people’s preferences concerning the direction of time travel have gone unexplored. What determines whether a person would prefer to visit the (certain) past or explore the (uncertain) future? We identified three factors that markedly affect people’s preference for (hypothetical) travel to the past or the future, respectively. Those who think of themselves as courageous, those with a more conservative worldview, and—perhaps counterintuitively—those who are advanced in age prefer to travel into the future. We discuss implications of these initial results.
Individuals’ insight into intrapersonal externalities
Authors: Stillwell David J. , Tunney Richard J. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractAn intrapersonal externality exists when an individual’s decisions affect the outcomes of her future decisions. It can result in decreasing or increasing average returns to the rate of consumption, as occurs in addiction or exercise. Experimentation using the Harvard Game, which models intrapersonal externalities, has found differences in decision making between drug users and control subjects, leading to the argument that these externalities influence the course of illicit drug use. Nevertheless, it is unclear how participants who behave optimally conceptualise the problem. We report two experiments using a simplified Harvard Game, which tested the differences in contingency knowledge between participants who chose optimally and participants who did not. Those who demonstrated optimal performance exhibited both a pattern of correct responses and systematic errors to questions about the payoff schedules. The pattern suggested that they learned explicit knowledge of the change in reinforcement on a trail-by-trial basis. They did not have, or need, a full knowledge of the historical interaction leading to each payoff. We also found no evidence of choice differences between participants who were given a guaranteed payment and participants who were paid contingent on their performance, but those given a guaranteed payment were able to report more contingency knowledge as the experiment progressed, suggesting that they explored more rather than settling into a routine. Experiment 2 showed that using a fixed inter-trial interval did not change the results.
Response mode, compatibility, and dual-processes in the evaluation of simple gambles: An eye-tracking investigation
Authors: Rubaltelli Enrico , Dickert Stephan , Slovic Paul 
Published: January 2023

AbstractWe employed simple gambles to investigate information processing in relation to the compatibility effect. Subjects should be more likely to engage in a deliberative thinking strategy when completing a pricing task rather than a rating task. We used eye-tracking methodology to measure information acquisition and processing in order to test the above hypothesis as well as to show that losses and alternatives with uncertain outcomes are more likely than gains and alternatives with sure outcomes to be processed through a deliberative thinking process. Results showed that pupil dilations, fixation duration and number of fixations increased when subjects evaluated the gambles with a pricing task. Additionally, the number of fixations increased as the gamble outcome became increasingly negative and when the outcome was uncertain (vs. sure). Fixations were also predictive of subjects’ final evaluations of the gambles. We discuss our results in light of the cognitive processes underlying different response modes in economic preferences.
Testing the effect of time pressure on asymmetric dominance and compromise decoys in choice
Authors: Pettibone Jonathan C. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractDynamic, connectionist models of decision making, such as decision field theory (Roe, Busemeyer, & Townsend, 2001), propose that the effect of context on choice arises from a series of pairwise comparisons between attributes of alternatives across time. As such, they predict that limiting the amount of time to make a decision should decrease rather than increase the size of contextual effects. This prediction was tested across four levels of time pressure on both the asymmetric dominance (Huber, Payne, & Puto, 1982) and compromise (Simonson, 1989) decoy effects in choice. Overall, results supported this prediction, with both types of decoy effects found to be larger as time pressure decreased.
Goal center width, how to count sequences, and the gambler’s fallacy in soccer penalty shootouts
Authors: Avugos Simcha , Azar Ofer H. , Gavish Nadav , Sher Eran , Bar-Eli Michael 
Published: January 2023

AbstractPrevious research has reported that the gambler’s fallacy could be detected in goalkeepers’ behavior during penalty shootouts. Following repeated kicks in the same direction, goalkeepers were more likely to dive in the opposite direction on the next kick. We employ here a unique data collection approach and accurately measure the exact location of each ball when crossing the goal plane. This allows us to analyze how different definitions of the goal center width affect the results, and we show that this width indeed affects whether a gambler’s fallacy in goalkeepers’ diving behavior exists. We further augment the data with additional kicks from top international competitions and analyze the extended dataset. We also question whether previous treatments of kicking sequences adequately represent what goalkeepers consider as a run of consecutive kicks to the same side. A different representation of kicking sequences is provided and applied to the data. Overall, we find some evidence for the gambler’s fallacy after sequences of two or three kicks to the same side.
The effect of incomplete information on the compromise effect
Authors: Chuang Shih-Chieh , Kao Danny Tengti , Cheng Yin-Hui , Chou Chu-An 
Published: January 2023

AbstractMost research on the compromise effect focuses on how consumers make their decisions in a complete information scenario; however, consumers generally lack sufficient information when they make purchase decisions. This research aims to explore the compromise effect with incomplete information. Three studies were conducted to examine the research hypotheses. The main findings was that consumers are more likely to choose the middle option when they have incomplete information than when they have complete information. Further, the compromise effect decreases when consumers can choose to defer their decision in an incomplete information scenario. Finally, the compromise effect decreases when consumers are asked to infer missing attribute values from the incomplete information.
The impact of time limitation: Insights from a queueing experiment
Authors: Conte Anna , Scarsini Marco , Sürücü Oktay 
Published: January 2023

AbstractWe experimentally explore the effects of time limitation on decision making. Under different time allowance conditions, subjects are presented with a queueing situation and asked to join one of the two given queues. The results can be grouped under two main categories. The first one concerns the factors driving decisions in a queueing system. Only some subjects behave consistently with rationality principles and use the relevant information efficiently. The rest of the subjects seem to adopt a simpler strategy that does not incorporate some information into their decision. The second category is related to the effects of time limitation on decision performance. A substantial proportion of the population is not affected by time limitations and shows consistent behavior throughout the treatments. On the other hand, some subjects’ performance is impaired by time limitations. More importantly, this impairment is not due to the stringency of the limitation but rather to being exposed to a time constraint.
The Simple Life: New experimental tests of the recognition heuristic
Authors: Basehore Zachariah , Anderson Richard B. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractThe recognition heuristic (RH) is a hypothesized decision strategy that is assumed to enable individuals to make decisions quickly and with minimal effort. To further test this hypothesized strategy, an experiment assessed the proportion of RH-consistent selections when recognition was unconfounded with any other cues (at the group level). This was accomplished by showing participants a fictitious city in the beginning of the experimental procedure, before asking them to decide Whether the previously presented city or a novel fictitious city has the larger population. As hypothesized, people made significantly more RH-consistent selections than chance. Thus, Experiment 1 demonstrated that RH can explain a considerable proportion of participant decisions in a procedure that experimentally excluded alternative interpretations of that behavior. In a second experiment, each participant was given a training session with accuracy feedback. In one group, well-known cities were larger on 80% of trials. In another group, well-known cities were larger on 50% of trials. In a third group, well-known cities were larger on only 20% of trials. On a judgment task later in the procedure, on which there was no feedback, participants from the third group made significantly fewer RH-consistent selections than those in the first two groups. Overall, the present results experimentally remove potential confounds and ambiguities that were present in many prior studies. Specifically, Experiment 1 establishes that people’s choice of recognized over unrecognized objects truly does reflect the use of recognition, rather than other cues; Experiment 2 experimentally demonstrates that learned recognition validity affects the use of recognition, even with a small training sample.
Finding meaning in the clouds: Illusory pattern perception predicts receptivity to pseudo-profound bullshit
Authors: Walker Alexander C. , Turpin Martin Harry , Stolz Jennifer A. , Fugelsang Jonathan A. , Koehler Derek J. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractPrevious research has demonstrated a link between illusory pattern perception and various irrational beliefs. On this basis, we hypothesized that participants who displayed greater degrees of illusory pattern perception would also be more likely to rate pseudo-profound bullshit statements as profound. We find support for this prediction across three experiments (N = 627) and four distinct measures of pattern perception. We further demonstrate that this observed relation is restricted to illusory pattern perception, with participants displaying greater endorsement of non-illusory patterns being no more likely to rate pseudo-profound bullshit statements as profound. Additionally, this relation is not a product of a general proclivity to rate all statements as profound and is not accounted for by individual differences in analytic thinking. Overall, we demonstrate that individuals with a tendency to go beyond the available data such that they uncritically endorse patterns where no patterns exist are also more likely to create and endorse false-meaning in meaningless pseudo-profound statements. These findings are discussed in the context of a proposed framework that views individuals’ receptivity to pseudo-profound bullshit as, in part, an unfortunate consequence of an otherwise adaptive process: that of pattern perception.
Are markets more accurate than polls? The surprising informational value of “just asking”
Authors: Dana Jason , Atanasov Pavel , Tetlock Philip , Mellers Barbara 
Published: January 2023

AbstractPsychologists typically measure beliefs and preferences using self-reports, whereas economists are much more likely to infer them from behavior. Prediction markets appear to be a victory for the economic approach, having yielded more accurate probability estimates than opinion polls or experts for a wide variety of events, all without ever asking for self-reported beliefs. We conduct the most direct comparison to date of prediction markets to simple self-reports using a within-subject design. Our participants traded on the likelihood of geopolitical events. Each time they placed a trade, they first had to report their belief that the event would occur on a 0–100 scale. When previously validated aggregation algorithms were applied to self-reported beliefs, they were at least as accurate as prediction-market prices in predicting a wide range of geopolitical events. Furthermore, the combination of approaches was significantly more accurate than prediction-market prices alone, indicating that self-reports contained information that the market did not efficiently aggregate. Combining measurement techniques across behavioral and social sciences may have greater benefits than previously thought.
The less-is-more effect: Predictions and tests
Authors: Katsikopoulos Konstantinos V. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractIn inductive inference, a strong prediction is the less-is-more effect: Less information can lead to more accuracy. For the task of inferring which one of two objects has a higher value on a numerical criterion, there exist necessary and sufficient conditions under which the effect is predicted, assuming that recognition memory is perfect. Based on a simple model of imperfect recognition memory, I derive a more general characterization of the less-is-more effect, which shows the important role of the probabilities of hits and false alarms for predicting the effect. From this characterization, it follows that the less-is-more effect can be predicted even if heuristics (enabled when little information is available) have relatively low accuracy; this result contradicts current explanations of the effect. A new effect, the below-chance less-is-more effect, is also predicted. Even though the less-is-more effect is predicted to occur frequently, its average magnitude is predicted to be small, as has been found empirically. Finally, I show that current empirical tests of less-is-more-effect predictions have methodological problems and propose a new method. I conclude by examining the assumptions of the imperfect-recognition-memory model used here and of other models in the literature, and by speculating about future research.