Equity and prediction of health resource allocation of traditional Chinese medicine in China
Authors: Zhou Minghua 
Published: August 2023

Objective
To analyze the equity of health resource allocation of Traditional Chinese Medicine(TCM) and predict its development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, and to provide a scientific basis for promoting the improvement of TCM service capacity.

Methods
The Chinese Mainland (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) was divided into the Northeast, Eastern, Central and Western regions, and the number of TCM medical institutions, the number of TCM beds, practitioners (assistants) of TCM and Chinese pharmacists from 2016 to 2020 were selected as evaluation indicators, and the equity of health resource allocation of TCM was evaluated by Concentration index(CI), Theil index(T) and Health resource agglomeration degree (HRAD), and the development of health resource of TCM during the 14th Five-Year Plan period was predicted by grey prediction model GM (1,1).

Results
The Concentration index of the number of TCM medical institutions and TCM beds is negative, and the allocation tends to the regions with low economic development level. The Concentration index of practitioners (assistants) of TCM and Chinese pharmacists is positive, and the allocation tends to the regions with higher economic development level. The number of TCM medical institutions, TCM beds, practitioners (assistants) of TCM and Chinese pharmacists’ Theil index allocated by geography is larger than that allocated by population, which indicates that the equity of TCM health resources allocated by population is better than that allocated by geography. The number of TCM medical institutions, practitioners (assistants) of TCM and Chinese pharmacists in between regions by population contributed more than 72% to the Theil index, indicating that the inequity mainly comes from between regions. The number of TCM medical institutions, TCM beds, practitioners (assistants) of TCM and Chinese pharmacists in within regions by geography contributed more than 80% to the Theil index, indicating that the inequity mainly comes from within regions. The HRAD in the Eastern and Central regions is greater than 1, indicating that the equity is better by geography. The HRAD in the Western region is less than 1, indicating insufficient equity by geography. The HRAD/PAD of the Central region (except for the number of TCM beds in 2020) is less than 1, indicating that it cannot meet the medical needs of the agglomerated population. The HRAD/PAD of the Western region (excluding for the Chinese pharmacists) is greater than 1, indicating that the equity is better than that of the agglomeration population.

Conclusion
The number of TCM medical institutions and TCM beds tends to regions with low economic development levels, while the number of practitioners (assistants) of TCM and Chinese pharmacists tends to regions with high economic development levels. The equity of the allocation of TCM health resources by population is better than that by geography, and the inequity of the allocation by geography mainly comes from within region. The allocation of health resources of TCM in the four regions is different, and there is a contradiction between equity and actual medical needs.