bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
A note on determining the number of cues used in judgment analysis studies: The issue of type II error
Authors: Beckstead Jason W. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractMany judgment analysis studies employ multiple regression procedures to estimate the importance of cues. Some studies test the significance of regression coefficients in order to decide whether or not specific cues are attended to by the judge or decision maker. This practice is dubious because it ignores type II error. The purposes of this note are (1) to draw attention to this issue, specifically as it appears in studies of self-insight, (2) to illustrate the problem with examples from the judgment literature, and (3) to provide a simple method for calculating post-hoc power in regression analyses in order to facilitate the reporting of type II errors when regression models are used.
Time preference and its relationship with age, health, and survival probability
Authors: Chao Li-Wei , Szrek Helena , Sousa Pereira Nuno , Pauly Mark V. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractAlthough theories from economics and evolutionary biology predict that one's age, health, and survival probability should be associated with one's subjective discount rate (SDR), few studies have empirically tested for these links. Our study analyzes in detail how the SDR is related to age, health, and survival probability, by surveying a sample of individuals in townships around Durban, South Africa. In contrast to previous studies, we find that age is not significantly related to the SDR, but both physical health and survival expectations have a U-shaped relationship with the SDR. Individuals in very poor health have high discount rates, and those in very good health also have high discount rates. Similarly, those with expected survival probability on the extremes have high discount rates. Therefore, health and survival probability, and not age, seem to be predictors of one's SDR in an area of the world with high morbidity and mortality.
Aging and choice: Applications to Medicare Part D
Authors: Tanius Betty E. , Wood Stacey , Hanoch Yaniv , Rice Thomas 
Published: January 2023

AbstractWe examined choice behavior in younger versus older adults using a medical decision-making task similar to Medicare Part D. The study was designed to assess age differences in choice processes in general and specifically designed to examine the effect of choice set size on performance. Data are drawn from a larger study on choice and aging, in which ninety-six younger adults (ages 18–64) and 96 older adults (ages 65–91) selected a prescription drug plan from either 6 or 24 different options. As hypothesized, choice set size was a significant predictor of individuals’ ability to choose the best plan. Participants who were presented with 24 plans were less likely to choose the correct prescription drug plan. Age did not have a negative effect on decision performance; however numeracy and speed of processing significantly affected performance across groups. Older adults were more likely to be characterized as satisficers on a decision personality measure, but this categorization did not predict performance on the choice task.
Decision making in civil disputes: The effects of legal role, frame, and perceived chance of winning
Authors: Gilliland Victoria , Dunn John C. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractThe present study investigates the effect of framing and legal role on the propensity to accept a settlement offer by litigants in a simulated legal dispute. Participants were given four different scenarios that factorially combined legal role (plaintiff vs. defendant) and frame (positive vs. negative). The results indicated that positively framed litigants were more willing to settle than negatively framed litigants independently of legal role. These results were replicated in a second experiment that also asked participants to state their subjective probability of winning. This revealed that the propensity to settle was a joint function of frame and the perceived chance of winning. In contrast to previous research, no systematic effect of legal role was found. It is concluded that the rate of negotiated settlements of legal disputes may be increased by manipulating both of these factors.
Goals and plans in decision making
Authors: Krantz David H. , Kunreuther Howard C. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractWe propose a constructed-choice model for general decision making. The model departs from utility theory and prospect theory in its treatment of multiple goals and it suggests several different ways in which context can affect choice.It is particularly instructive to apply this model to protective decisions, which are often puzzling. Among other anomalies, people insure against non-catastrophic events, underinsure against catastrophic risks, and allow extraneous factors to influence insurance purchases and other protective decisions. Neither expected-utility theory nor prospect theory can explain these anomalies satisfactorily. To apply this model to the above anomalies, we consider many different insurance-related goals, organized in a taxonomy, and we consider the effects of context on goals, resources, plans and decision rules.The paper concludes by suggesting some prescriptions for improving individual decision making with respect to protective measures.
On the perception and operationalization of risk perception
Authors: Ganzach Yoav , Ellis Shmuel , Pazy Asya , Ricci-Siag Tali 
Published: January 2023

AbstractWe compare and critique two measures of risk perception. We suggest that a single question — “How risky is the situation?” — captures the concept of risk perception more accurately than the multiple-item measure used by Sitkin and Weingart (1995). In fact, this latter measure inadvertently captures notions of attractiveness or expected return, rather than risk perception. We further propose that the error underlying the construction of Sitkin and Weingart’s measure is explained in terms of a top-down model of risk perception, in which perceived risk and perceived return are consequences, rather than determinants, of attractiveness. Two studies compare the validity of the two alternative measures.
A note on neglect defaulting
Authors: Margolis Howard 
Published: January 2023

AbstractI introduce the notion of “neglect defaulting,” which labels the propensity to neglect possibilities which are ordinarily sensibly neglected. In familiar contexts we are well-tuned to recognize when to override the default. But outside the range of familiar experience — here in the artificial context of puzzles — these ordinarily benign defaults can make it difficult for even sophisticated subjects, such as readers of this note, to avoid responses which on reflection will be seen as obviously mistaken. A detail of particular importance is that, although subjects are easily prompted to take one step in the direction of reaching a sound response, the tendency to then neglect to consider that another step may be needed is remarkably strong. In each of the five examples the needed but usually neglected second step is quite trivial. Concluding remarks point to consequences for larger questions outside the range of familiar experience, in politics and other contexts out of scale with everyday experience.
Memory reflected in our decisions: Higher working memory capacity predicts greater bias in risky choice
Authors: Corbin Jonathan , McElroy Todd , Black Cassie 
Published: January 2023

AbstractThe current study looks at the role working memory plays in risky-choice framing. Eighty-six participants took the Automatic OSPAN, a measurement of working memory; this was followed by a risky-choice framing task. Participants with high working memory capacities demonstrated well pronounced framing effects, while those with low working memory capacities did not. This pattern suggests that, in a typical risky-choice decision task, elaborative encoding of task information by those with high working memory capacity may lead them to a more biased decision compared to those with low working memory.
(When) are religious people nicer? Religious salience and the “Sunday Effect” on pro-social behavior
Authors: Malhotra Deepak 
Published: January 2023

AbstractPrior research has found mixed evidence for the long-theorized link between religiosity and pro-social behavior. To help overcome this divergence, I hypothesize that pro-social behavior is linked not to religiosity per se, but rather to the salience of religion and religious norms. I report a field experiment that examined when auction participants will respond to an appeal to continue bidding for secular charitable causes. Religious individuals are more likely than non-religious individuals to respond to an appeal “for charity” only on days that they visit their place of worship; on other days of the week, religiosity has no effect. Notably, the result persists after controlling for a host of factors that may influence bidding, but disappears when the appeal “for charity” is replaced by an appeal to bid for other (i.e., competitive) reasons. Implications for the link between religion and pro-social behavior are discussed.
Emotional reactions to losing explain gender differences in entering a
risky lottery
Authors: Eriksson Kimmo , Simpson Brent 
Published: January 2023

Abstract
A gender difference in risk preferences, with women being more averse to
risky choices, is a robust experimental finding. Speculating on the sources
of this difference, Croson and Gneezy recently pointed to the tendency for
women to experience emotions more strongly and suggested that feeling more
strongly about negative outcomes would lead to greater risk-aversion. Here
we test this hypothesis in an international survey with 424 respondents from
India and 416 from US where we ask questions about a hypothetical lottery.
In both countries we find that emotions about outcomes are stronger among
women, and that this effect partially mediates gender difference in
willingness to enter the lottery.
Maximizing without difficulty: A modified maximizing scale and its correlates
Authors: Lai Linda 
Published: January 2023

AbstractThis article presents several studies that replicate and extend previous research on maximizing. A modified scale for measuring individual maximizing tendency is introduced. The scale has adequate psychometric properties and reflects maximizers’ aspirations for high standards and their preference for extensive alternative search, but not the decision difficulty aspect included in several previous studies. Based on this scale, maximizing is positively correlated with optimism, need for cognition, desire for consistency, risk aversion, intrinsic motivation, self-efficacy and perceived workload, whereas the association with regret is inconsistent. Analysis of correlates of the difficulty dimension suggests that decision difficulty should be conceptualized as a separate dimension rather than as a sub-dimension of maximizing. Opportunities for future research are suggested.
A fine-grained analysis of the jumping-to-conclusions bias in schizophrenia: Data-gathering, response confidence, and information integration
Authors: Glöckner Andreas , Moritz Steffen 
Published: January 2023

AbstractImpaired decision behavior has been repeatedly observed in schizophrenia patients. We investigated several cognitive mechanisms that might contribute to the jumping-to-conclusions bias (JTC) seen in schizophrenia patients: biases in information-gathering, information weighting and integration, and overconfidence, using the process tracing paradigm Mouselab. Mouselab allows for an in-depth exploration of various decision-making processes in a structured information environment. A total of 37 schizophrenia patients and 30 healthy controls participated in the experiment. Although showing less focused and systematic information search, schizophrenia patients practically considered all pieces of information and showed no JTC in the sense of collecting less pieces of evidence. Choices of patients and controls both approximated a rational solution quite well, but patients showed more extreme confidence ratings. Both groups mainly used weighted additive decision strategies for information integration and only a small proportion relied on simple heuristics. Under high stress induced by affective valence plus time pressure, however, schizophrenia patients switched to equal weighting strategies: less valid cues and more valid ones were weighted equally.
On the relative importance of the hot stove effect and the tendency to rely on small samples
Authors: Fujikawa Takemi 
Published: January 2023

AbstractExperiments have suggested that decisions fromexperiencediffer from decisions fromdescription. In experience-based decisions, the decision makers often fail to maximise their payoffs. Previous authors have ascribed the effect of underweighting of rare outcomes to this deviation from maximisation. In this paper, I re-examine and provide further analysis on the effect with an experiment that involves a series of simple binary choice gambles. In the current experiment, decisions that bear small consequences are repeated hundreds of times, feedback on the consequence of each decision is provided immediately, and decision outcomes are accumulated. The participants have to learn about the outcome distributions through sampling, as they are not explicitly provided with prior information on the payoff structure. The current results suggest that the “hot stove effect” is stronger than suggested by previous research and is as important as the payoff variability effect and the effect of underweighting of rare outcomes in analysing decisions from experience in which the features of gambles must be learned through a sampling process.
The role of representation in experience-based choice
Authors: Camilleri Adrian R. , Newell Ben R. 
Published: January 2023

Abstract
Recently it has been observed that different choices can be made about
structurally identical risky decisions depending on whether information
about outcomes and their probabilities is learned by description or from
experience. Current evidence is equivocal with respect to whether this
choice “gap” is entirely an artefact of biased samples. The current
experiment investigates whether a representational bias exists at the point
of encoding by examining choice in light of decision makers’ mental
representations of the alternatives, measured with both verbal and nonverbal
judgment probes. We found that, when estimates were gauged by the nonverbal
probe, participants presented with information in description format (as
opposed to experience) had a greater tendency to overestimate rare events
and underestimate common events. The choice gap, however, remained even when
accounting for this judgment distortion and the effects of sampling bias.
Indeed, participants’ estimation of the outcome distribution did not mediate
their subsequent choice. It appears that experience-based choices may derive
from a process that does not explicitly use probability
information.
On the use of recognition in inferential decision making: An overview of the debate
Authors: Pohl Rüdiger F. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractI describe and discuss the sometimes heated controversy surrounding the recognition heuristic (RH) as a model of inferential decision making. After briefly recapitulating the history of the RH up to its current version, I critically evaluate several specific assumptions and predictions of the RH and its surrounding framework: recognition as a memory-based process; the RH as a cognitive process model; proper conditions of testing the RH; measures of using the RH; reasons for not using the RH; the RH as a non-compensatory strategy; evidence for a Less-is-more effect (LIME); and the RH as part of the toolbox. The collection of these controversial issues may help to better understand the debate, to further sharpen the RH theory, and to develop ideas for future research.
Are groups more likely to defer choice than their members?
Authors: White Chris M. , Hafenbrädl Sebastian , Hoffrage Ulrich , Reisen Nils , Woike Jan K. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractWhen faced with a choice, people can normally select no option, i.e., defer choice. Previous research has investigated when and why individuals defer choice, but has almost never looked at these questions when groups of people make choices. Separate reasons predict that groups may be equally likely, more likely, or less likely than individuals to defer choice. We re-analyzed some previously published data and conducted a new experiment to address this question. We found that small groups of people tended to defer choice more often than their members would. Assuming that the groups used a plurality rule but gave additional weight to individual preferences to defer choice allowed the groups’ responses to be predicted quite well. We discuss several possible explanations of these findings.
The effects of total sleep deprivation on bayesian updating
Authors: Dickinson David L. , Drummond Sean P. A. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractSubjects performed a decision task (Grether, 1980) in both a well-rested and experimentally sleep-deprived state. We found two main results: 1) final choice accuracy was unaffected by sleep deprivation, and yet 2) the estimated decision model differed significantly following sleep-deprivation. Following sleep deprivation, subjects placed significantly less weight on new information in forming their beliefs. Because the altered decision process still maintains decision accuracy, it may suggest that increased accident and error rates attributed to reduced sleep in modern society stem from reduced auxiliary function performance (e.g., slowed reaction time, reduced motor skills) or other components of decision making, rather than the inability to integrate multiple pieces of information.
Who helps more? How self-other discrepancies influence decisions in helping situations
Authors: Kogut Tehila , Beyth-Marom Ruth 
Published: January 2023

AbstractResearch has shown that people perceive themselves as less biased than others, and as better than average in many favorable characteristics. We suggest that these types of biased perceptions regarding intentions and behavior of others may directly affect people’s decisions. In the current research we focus on possible influences in the context of helping behavior. In four experiments we found that, people believe that others, compared to themselves, are less inclined to help and cooperate, are less aware of the number of bystanders and more influenced by the “proportion dominance” bias and by the “identifiable victim effect.” We demonstrate that these perceptions are naïve and unrealistic by showing that decisions from both self and others’ perspectives are equally biased. Finally, we show how the perspective from which a decision is made (self vs. others) may affect private as well as public decisions in ways that might not be in the best interest of the decision maker and the public.
Affective reactions and context-dependent processing of negations
Authors: Rubaltelli Enrico , Slovic Paul 
Published: January 2023

AbstractThree experiments demonstrate how the processing of negations is contingent on the evaluation context in which the negative information is presented. In addition, the strategy used to process the negations induced different affective reactions toward the stimuli, leading to inconsistency of preference. Participants were presented with stimuli described by either stating the presence of positive features (explicitly positive alternative) or negating the presence of negative features (non-negative alternative). Alternatives were presented for either joint (JE) or separate evaluation (SE). Experiment 1 showed that the non-negative stimuli were judged less attractive than the positive ones in JE but not in SE. Experiment 2 revealed that the non-negative stimuli induced a less clear and less positive feeling when they were paired with explicitly positive stimuli rather than evaluated separately. Non-negative options were also found less easy to judge than the positive ones in JE but not in SE. Finally, Experiment 3 showed that people process negations using two different models depending on the evaluation mode. Through a memory task, we found that in JE people process the non-negative attributes as negations of negative features, whereas in SE they directly process the non-negative attributes as positive features.
Mhairi’s Dilemma: A study of decision analysis at work
Authors: Mullin Barbara , Mullin Mhairi , Mullin Roger , Dowie Jack , Brown Rex V. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractA case study review of a formal decision analysis involving a 10 year old girl. She had just faced the death of a close adult friend, and had become filled with uncertainty and emotion while facing the decision as to whether or not to attend his funeral. The study demonstrates that formal analysis can provide the sensitivity and caring basis for such decision making, thus counteracting some of the criticisms of decision analysis.
A simple remedy for overprecision in judgment
Authors: Haran Uriel , Moore Don A. , Morewedge Carey K. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractOverprecision is the most robust type of overconfidence. We present a new method that significantly reduces this bias and offers insight into its underlying cause. In three experiments, overprecision was significantly reduced by forcing participants to consider all possible outcomes of an event. Each participant was presented with the entire range of possible outcomes divided into intervals, and estimated each interval’s likelihood of including the true answer. The superiority of this Subjective Probability Interval Estimate (SPIES) method is robust to range widths and interval grain sizes. Its carryover effects are observed even in subsequent estimates made using the conventional, 90% confidence interval method: judges who first made SPIES judgments considered a broader range of values in subsequent conventional interval estimates as well.
Thoughtful days and valenced nights: How much will you think about the problem?
Authors: McElroy Todd , Dickinson David L. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractConsiderable research has pointed towards processing differences as a viable means for understanding the strength and likelihood of a framing effect. In the current study we explored how differences in processing may emerge through diurnal patters in circadian rhythm, which varies across individuals. We predicted that during circadian off-times, participants would exhibit stronger framing effects whereas framing effects would be relatively weaker during on-times. Six-hundred and eighty five individuals took part in the study; the findings supported our hypothesis, revealing a diurnal pattern of risk responding that varies across the 24-hour circadian cycle.