bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Can Machine Learning Models Be a Suitable Tool for Predicting Central European Cold Winter Weather on Subseasonal to Seasonal Time Scales?
Authors: Kiefer Selina M. , Lerch Sebastian , Ludwig Patrick , Pinto Joaquim G. 
Published: July 2023

Abstract
Skillful weather prediction on subseasonal to seasonal time scales is crucial for many socioeconomic ventures. But forecasting, especially extremes, on these time scales is very challenging because the information from initial conditions is gradually lost. Therefore, data-driven methods are discussed as an alternative to numerical weather prediction models. Here, quantile regression forests (QRFs) and random forest classifiers (RFCs) are used for probabilistic forecasting of central European mean wintertime 2-m temperatures and cold wave days at lead times of 14, 21, and 28 days. ERA5 reanalysis meteorological predictors are used as input data for the machine learning models. For the winters of 2000/01–2019/20, the predictions are compared with a climatological ensemble obtained from E-OBS observational data. The evaluation is performed as full distribution predictions for continuous values using the continuous ranked probability skill score and as binary categorical forecasts using the Brier skill score. We find skill at lead times up to 28 days in the 20-winter mean and for individual winters. Case studies show that all used machine learning models are able to learn patterns in the data beyond climatology. A more detailed analysis using Shapley additive explanations suggests that both random forest (RF)-based models are able to learn physically known relationships in the data. This underlines that RF-based data-driven models can be a suitable tool for forecasting central European mean wintertime 2-m temperatures and the occurrence of cold wave days.

Significance Statement
Because of the chaotic nature of weather, it is very complicated to make predictions with traditional numerical methods 2–4 weeks in advance. Therefore, we use alternative, interpretable methods that “learn” to find statistically relevant patterns in meteorological data that can be used for forecasting central European mean surface wintertime temperatures and cold wave days. These methods are part of the so-called machine learning methods that do not rely on the traditional numerical equations anymore. We test our methods for 20 winters between 2000/01 and 2019/20 against a static weather prediction consisting of the past 30 winters. For single winters and in a mean over the 20 predicted winters, we find improved predictions up to 4 weeks in advance.
Hurricane Vulnerability and Constrained Choices among Mobile Home Park Residents in South Florida
Authors: Casanova Felicia , Prasad Shivangi , Bermudez Garolera Daniela , Riopelle Cameron , Stoler Justin 
Published: July 2023

Abstract
South Florida experiences some of the highest coastal hurricane vulnerability in the United States. Mobile home communities in south Florida are particularly vulnerable to hurricanes due to the weaker structural integrity of the home or land and a mix of structural and sociodemographic factors. A mixed-methods study was conducted to assess hurricane risk perceptions, experiences, and decision-making among permanent mobile home park (MHP) residents in Broward and Miami-Dade Counties. Return-by-mail surveys were distributed in July 2016 after several years of nominal hurricane activity in south Florida (and before Hurricane Matthew’s formation in September 2016), and focus groups were conducted at MHPs in May 2018, eight months after Hurricane Irma’s September 2017 landfall. Quantitative analysis of 44 in-person and 57 return-by-mail survey responses revealed that respondents tended to be older, retired, or unemployed and had modest levels of education, with many expressing forms of social- and structural-level hurricane risk before Hurricane Matthew. Qualitative analysis of six focus group discussions conducted after Hurricane Irma revealed that the constraints and vulnerabilities experienced by residents coalesced into several primary themes related to preparation, evacuation, assistance, stress and anxiety, tree concerns, and recovery. Participants specifically highlighted their concerns about tree hazards, damages, and maintenance issues arising before, during, and after hurricanes in MHPs. These results build on the scholarship on hurricane risk by underscoring the structural and social vulnerability of residents living in MHPs that constrain building resilience, adaptive capacity, community restoration efforts, and advocating for policy changes.

Significance Statement
This study aims to understand local hurricane risk perceptions, experiences, and vulnerabilities among residents of mobile home parks after a decade-long hurricane drought in south Florida and also to understand the barriers residents faced after a major hurricane. A hurricane drought is critical to study because it can erode individual and community-level preparedness. Residents of mobile home parks may experience more flooding, higher winds, tornadoes, and other dangers during hurricanes. Residents also face county-, neighborhood-, and household-level structural vulnerabilities that restrict their options related to hurricane preparedness, safety during a storm, and resilience in its aftermath. Our study uses various forms of data collection to obtain insights from permanent residents of mobile home parks in south Florida. In addition, it discusses the social and economic disadvantages and opportunities that policy makers can address in climate change risk management.
Chest X-Ray Remains a Vital Component Prior to Tube Thoracostomy
Authors: Moore Cody , Wilson Brandon , Oury Jeffrey , Denne Nicolas , Quedado Kimberly , Fang Wei , Bardes James M. 
Published: July 2023

Introduction The identification and treatment of traumatic pneumothorax (PTX) has long been a focus of bedside imaging in the trauma patient. While the emergence of bedside ultrasound (BUS) provides an opportunity for earlier detection, the need for tube thoracostomy (TT) based on bedside imaging, including BUS and supine AP chest X-ray (CXR) is less established in the medical literature. Methods Retrospective data from 2017 to 2020 were collected of all adult trauma activations at a level 1 rural trauma facility. Every adult patient included in this study received a CXR and BUS (eFast) upon arrival. The need for TT was determined by the emergency medicine attending or the trauma surgery attending evaluating the patient. McNemar’s chi-squared test and conditional logistic regression analysis were performed comparing BUS, CXR, and the combination of BUS and CXR findings for the need for TT. Subgroup analyses were performed comparing BUS, CXR, and the combination of BUS and CXR for the detection of PTX compared to CT scan. Results Of the 12,244 patients who underwent trauma activation during this timeframe, 602 were included in the study. 74.9% were males with an age range of 36-63 years. Of the 602 patients, 210 received TT. Positive PTX was recorded with BUS in 128 (21%) patients with 16 false negatives (FNs) and 98 false positives (FPs), 100 (17%) PTX were identified with CXR with 114 FNs and 4 FPs, and 72 (11.9%) were noted on both CXR and BUS with 140 FNs and 2 FPs. The odds ratio of TT placement was 22 times with positive BUS alone ( P < .0001, 95% CI: 10.9-43.47), 47 times with positive CXR alone ( P < .0001, 95% CI: 16.99-127.5), and 70 times with both positive CXR and BUS ( P < .0001, 95% CI: 17.08-288.4). Conclusion A positive finding of PTX on BUS combined with CXR is more indicative of the need for TT in the trauma patient when compared with BUS or CXR alone.
Reducing the Costs of Automation Failure by Providing Voluntary Automation Checking Tools
Authors: Bowden Vanessa , Long Dale , Loft Shayne 
Published: July 2023

Objective We investigated the extent to which a voluntary-use range and bearing line (RBL) tool improves return-to-manual performance when supervising high-degree conflict detection automation in simulated air traffic control. Background High-degree automation typically benefits routine performance and reduces workload, but can degrade return-to-manual performance if automation fails. We reasoned that providing a voluntary checking tool (RBL) would support automation failure detection, but also that automation induced complacency could extend to nonoptimal use of such tools. Method Participants were assigned to one of three conditions, where conflict detection was either performed: manually, with RBLs available to use (Manual + RBL), automatically with RBLs (Auto + RBL), or automatically without RBLs (Auto). Voluntary-use RBLs allowed participants to reliably check aircraft conflict status. Automation failed once. Results RBLs improved automation failure detection – with participants intervening faster and making fewer false alarms when provided RBLs compared to not (Auto + RBL vs Auto). However, a cost of high-degree automation remained, with participants slower to intervene to the automation failure than to an identical manual conflict event (Auto + RBL vs Manual + RBL). There was no difference in RBL engagement time between Auto + RBL and Manual + RBL conditions, suggesting participants noticed the conflict event at the same time. Conclusions The cost of automation may have arisen from participants’ reconciling which information to trust: the automation (which indicated no conflict and had been perfectly reliable prior to failing) or the RBL (which indicated a conflict). Applications Providing a mechanism for checking the validity of high-degree automation may facilitate human supervision of automation.
Spatial Cost of Living and Welfare Indices for India with Application to Policies Implementation
Authors: Kumar Saurav , Barai Parama 
Published: July 2023

In the present study, we evaluate spatial cost of living and welfare indices for various states of India based on linear as well as price-independent generalised logarithmic cost functions. We compare the values of the indices as well as examine their correlations and find that there is significant difference among them and, hence, are not substitutable. We implement cluster analysis on constructed indices to club states and Union territories of India. We find that such clusters are closely linked to their per capita output. JEL Codes: C43, C50, R11, R12, D12, D63, D61, D65
Evaluation of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Evaluation Fellowship Program
Authors: Freire Kimberley E. , Kuperminc Gabriel , Vo Linda , Kidder Daniel P. , Zorland Jennifer 
Published: July 2023

Objective: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC’s) Evaluation Fellowship Program is a 2-year fellowship that includes training, placement with a CDC program, and professional development funds. We evaluated whether the program contributed to CDC’s evaluation capacity, prepared fellows for evaluation work, and contributed to their career advancement during its first 10 years. Methods: We used a mixed-methods approach, including conducting an online survey and telephone interviews. External evaluators sent surveys to all 152 alumni and all 123 mentors who participated in the program from 2011 through 2020 (first 8 cohorts) and interviewed 9 mentors and 15 alumni. Results: A total of 110 alumni (72.4%) and 44 mentors (35.8%) completed surveys. Of 44 mentors, most agreed their fellow(s) contributed to their program’s overall evaluation capacity (90.9%) and its ability to do more evaluation (88.6%). Most (84.2%-88.1%) alumni agreed that the Evaluation Fellowship Program prepared them to apply the 6 skill sets that aligned with CDC’s Framework for Program Evaluation in Public Health. Support from the Fellowship office was significantly and positively correlated with performing evaluation tasks (β = 0.25; P = .004) and alumni obtaining their first job (β = 0.36; P < .001). Host program mentoring was significantly correlated with performing evaluation tasks (β = 0.27; P = .02) and alumni obtaining their first job (β = 0.34; P = .007). Conclusion: CDC’s Evaluation Fellowship Program has made progress toward building CDC’s evaluation capacity and preparing a public health workforce to use evaluation skills in various settings. A service-learning model that provides training and applied experiences could prepare a workforce to build evaluation capacity.
Psychosocial factors predicting symptoms of depression and anxiety in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients in Japan
Authors: Imamura Takashi , Sudo Takeshi , Orihashi Yasushi , Takahashi Yuki , Onishi Yuichi , Onizuka Makoto , Mikami Katsunaka , Ueda Yasunori , Yamamoto Kenji 
Published: July 2023

Objective We explored whether a patient’s psychosocial background before allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT) could predict the occurrence of psychiatric symptoms during treatment and after hospital discharge. Method Logistic regression analysis was performed using INTERMED, a scale that comprehensively evaluates psychological factors such as psychiatric history, current mental status, and coping skills, and social factors such as social participation status, relationships with others, and living environment, which were used as independent variables. The Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale was used to measure depression, while the Profile of Mood States was used to measure anxiety and other symptoms. Both measures were used as dependent variables and were administered upon clean room admission, during clean room stay, at clean room discharge, and at 3, 6, and 12 months after hospital discharge. Results Participants included 70 patients (45 males and 25 females, mean age 53.3 ± 12.3 years). Thirty-eight patients participated in the program for the entire period, up to 12 months after hospital discharge. The total score on the Japanese version of the INTERMED and psychological factor scores assessed at baseline were significant predictors of depressed mood on discharge; however, there were no significant predictors of scores on the Profile of Mood States. Conclusions A comprehensive pretransplant evaluation of psychosocial background can help predict the appearance of psychiatric symptoms after allo-HSCT. In patients who are expected to develop psychiatric symptoms after allo-HSCT, it is important to consider early intervention by a specialist and close monitoring by a medical team.
Acute stroke in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting surgery in acute coronary syndrome: Predictors and outcomes
Authors: Krasivskyi Ihor , Ivanov Borko , Gerfer Stephen , Großmann Clara , Mihaylova Mariya , Eghbalzadeh Kaveh , Sabashnikov Anton , Deppe Antje-Christin , Rahmanian Parwis Baradaran , Mader Navid , Djordjevic Ilija , Wahlers Thorsten 
Published: July 2023

Objectives Coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) remains a high-risk procedure and is associated with adverse outcomes. The risk factors of acute stroke in the above-mentioned patients stay unclear and some appropriate data is lacking in the literature. Thus, we aimed to investigate the predictors of acute stroke in patients undergoing CABG surgery in ACS. Methods The retrospective single-centre cohort analysis was conducted. All patients ( n = 1344) who suffered from acute coronary syndrome and underwent CABG procedure at the University hospital Cologne from June 2011 until October 2019 were included in our study. In order to find the risk factors of acute stroke after bypass surgery, patients were divided into two groups (non-stroke group ( n = 1297) and stroke group ( n = 47)). In order to even above-mentioned groups propensity score matching (PSM) analysis was performed (non-stroke group ( n = 46) and stroke group ( n = 46). Results Duration of cardiopulmonary bypass ( p = .015) and cross clamp time ( p = .006) were significantly longer in patients who suffered stroke. Perioperative myocardial infarction was significantly higher ( p = .030) in the stroke group. Likewise, the duration of intensive care unit stay ( p < .001) and in-hospital stay ( p < .001) were significantly longer in patients with stroke. However, the mortality rate did not differ significantly ( p = .131) between above-mentioned groups. Univariate and multivariate analysis showed cardiogenic shock ( p = .003), peripheral vascular disease (PVD, p = .025) and previous stroke ( p = .045) as relevant independent predictors for acute stroke after CABG procedure in patients with ACS. Conclusion Based on our findings, acute stroke after bypass surgery in patients with ACS is associated with increased mortality and adverse outcomes. Cardiogenic shock, peripheral vascular disease and previous stroke were independent predictors of stroke after CABG procedure. Therefore, preoperative evaluation of potential risk factors may be crucial to improve postoperative results.
Qualitative assessment of available online patient resources for pulmonary embolism and deep vein thrombosis
Authors: Tolbert Preston H , Treffalls John , Clothier Wesley , Harbin Zach , Yan Qi , Davies Mark G 
Published: July 2023

Objective This study seeks to evaluate the quality and readability of freely available online patient information resources for deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE). Methods Internet searches were performed for five DVT and PE search terms in July 2020 across three search engines and two metasearch engines. Qualitative content analysis was performed. Readability was assessed using four validated instruments. Results Two hundred fifty websites were identified of which 62 websites met inclusion criteria. Website structure and content were satisfactory (>50% overall score), accountability was mixed between DVT (47%) and PE (56%) sites, while interactivity was poor (<30%). On qualitative content analysis, anticoagulation (95.2%) was the most discussed treatment while the most discussed procedures were IVC filter placement for DVT and thrombolysis for PE. Overall readability was difficult with median level suitable for ages 14–18 years. Conclusion Freely available online DVT and PE patient information resources publish appropriate content but have very variable accountability and poor readability for the average patient.
A novel method of measuring proptosis with computed tomography
Authors: Sun Rou , Yin Ziqing , Li Lunhao , Zhou Huifang , Song Xuefei , Li Yinwei 
Published: July 2023

Background Computed tomography (CT) can avoid interference factors and has been imported into some software to measure proptosis clinically as the golden standard. Purpose To establish a new method for semi-automatically measuring the proptosis on CT and evaluate its accuracy and reproducibility. Material and Methods A total of 50 orbital CT images were collected of healthy individuals, 25 patients with Graves ophthalmopathy (GO), and 25 patients with orbital fracture (OF). A new image processing software, MedrawHDC, was developed to semi-automatically measure the proptosis (MedrawHDC method). The classic radiological (CR) method (measuring proptosis with the software called Mimics) and MedrawHDC method were applied in all three groups (measured by observer S). Hertel's exophthalmometer (HE) method was also applied in the GO group. Moreover, two other observers were asked to measure the proptosis using MedrawHDC, to evaluate its reproducibility. Results The MedrawHDC method was highly consistent with the CR method in measuring proptosis (normal group: intraclass correlation coefficient [ICC] = 0.989; GO group: ICC = 0.979; OF group: ICC = 0.979). In the GO group, the value of proptosis measured by two radiological methods were consistent with that measured by the HE method (CR method: ICC = 0.703; MedrawHDC method: ICC = 0.697). Bland–Altman plots showed similar results. The measurements obtained by three observers were highly reproducible (ICC = 0.995). Conclusion The newly established MedrawHDC method, with high accessibility, convenience, and repeatability, is reliable in assessing proptosis. It shows high potential for wide application, having clinical value for scientific evaluation of proptosis.
Relationship between hematological parameters and bronchopulmonary dysplasia in premature infants
Authors: Jiang Junsheng , Mao Yueyan , Wu Jiabo , Zhou Qian 
Published: July 2023

Objective To evaluate the association between hematological parameters on the first day of life and bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) in preterm infants. Methods This retrospective study involved all premature infants admitted to our neonatal intensive care unit from January 2017 to June 2022. BPD was diagnosed based on hypoxia exposure for ≥28 days. The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), platelet count (PLT), mean platelet volume (MPV), and platelet mass index (PMI) were compared between infants with and without BPD. Multivariate analysis was conducted to evaluate the association between hematological parameters and BPD. Results This study involved 124 premature infants (48 with BPD, 76 without BPD). The BPD group had a lower gestational age and lower weight. The NLR, MPV, and PLR were considerably higher and the PLT and MPI were lower in the BPD than non-BPD group. After adjusting for covariates, logistic regression analysis suggested that the NLR, PLT, and PMI were independent risk factors for BPD. Moreover, the receiver operating characteristic curve indicated that the NLR, PLT, and PMI were reliable predictors of BPD. Conclusion Our findings suggest that a higher NLR and a lower PLT and PMI on the first day may increase the risk of BPD.