Unraveling the influence and mechanism of digital inclusive finance on household financial substitution: evidence from China
Authors: Li Xu , Sui Shumin 
Published: April 2023

PurposeThe development of digital inclusive finance (DIF) has increased households' financial investments and consumption. However, few studies have considered whether DIF strengthens the substitution of household financial investment for consumption behavior. To clarify the relationship between DIF, household financial investment and household consumption behavior, the authors combine matched data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) and Peking University Digital Inclusive Finance Index (2011–2018) to explore the impact of DIF on household financial substitution. This study aims to discuss the aforementioned objectives.Design/methodology/approachThis study's empirical analysis applies ordinary least squares (OLS) to answer how DIF affects household financial investment substitution for consumption. This study uses three approaches to examine the robustness of the benchmark regression model. These three approaches are replacing the core explanatory variables, using the lagged Digital Inclusive Finance Index and using the data of additional years. This article also assesses endogeneity by applying the instrumental variable method.FindingsThe results indicate that DIF significantly enhances household financial substitution. This article also assesses endogeneity by applying the instrumental variable method and robustness test methods. The impact mechanism test shows that DIF positively affects household financial substitution, by improving information dissemination efficiency and enhancing financial participation. Further research finds that the impact of DIF on household financial substitution is more pronounced in households with low to moderate savings rates, low to average income households and homes without family members who start their businesses.Research limitations/implicationsThis study analyzed the effect and mediating mechanisms of digital financial inclusion on household financial substitution. Like all studies, the research had some limitations. First, due to differences in culture and infrastructure development, people do not understand and judge economic behaviors, such as household financial investment and consumption, in the same way. It can lead to certain biases in their understanding and study responses. Second, the study is mainly based on data from China. Future studies should be extended to foreign countries for comparative analysis. Third, the development of DIF has not yet completed a full cycle, and many problems have not been fully identified.Practical implicationsThis study provides some practical implication. First, the public sectors should effectively weigh the spending relationship between household financial investment and consumption. Second, the public sector should focus on the policy optimization and consistency of DIF. The public sector should both enhance the breadth of coverage and depth of impact of DIF and focus on long-tail groups to fully reflect the equity and inclusiveness of DIF.Originality/valueThis study responds to the discussion on the relationship between financial investment, saving and consumption games in household expenditures and enhances our understanding of how DIF affects households' complex economic behavior. The most revealing finding is that DIF reinforces the substitution of household financial investment for household consumption. DIF positively affects household financial substitution by improving the efficiency of information dissemination and increasing financial participation, which is a valid extension of the study on the mechanisms of information dissemination and financial participation in financial investment and consumption proposed.