Espacio fiscal y recuperación económica de la crisis producida en México por la pandemia de Covid-19
Authors: Sánchez Vargas Armando , Ramírez Cedillo Eduardo , López Herrera Francisco 
Published: August 2023

<div class="page" title="Page 1"><div class="layoutArea"><div class="column"><p><span>Dada la crisis por la pandemia de Covid-19, se requiere determinar si existe espacio fiscal para llevar a cabo una política anticíclica en México que en el corto plazo facilite la recuperación económica. En este artículo buscamos aproximar empíricamente la existencia de espacio fiscal mediante la estimación de la brecha de sostenibilidad del balance primario, haciendo uso de los pronósticos de un modelo macroeconómico cointegrado. Específicamente, se estima la brecha usando el pronóstico tendencial del PIB nominal, la tasa de interés nominal y el saldo primario en los próximos meses. Nuestros hallazgos sugieren que no hay espacio fiscal suficiente para implementar una política expansiva basada en deuda pública durante el próximo año, incluso a pesar de que el crecimiento del PIB se mantendrá en una ruta de recuperación gradual y de que la tasa de interés pudiera mantenerse más baja que antes de la crisis. Así, el gasto público deberá administrarse de manera eficiente para evitar un gran aumento en el déficit y mayores riesgos a la estabilidad financiera. </span></p></div></div></div><textarea id="BFI_DATA" style="width: 1px; height: 1px; display: none;"></textarea><textarea id="BFI_DATA" style="width: 1px; height: 1px; display: none;"></textarea><textarea id="BFI_DATA" style="width: 1px; height: 1px; display: none;"></textarea><textarea id="BFI_DATA" style="width: 1px; height: 1px; display: none;"></textarea><div id="WidgetFloaterPanels" class="LTRStyle" style="display: none; text-align: left; direction: ltr; visibility: hidden;"><div id="WidgetFloater" style="display: none;" onmouseover="Microsoft.Translator.OnMouseOverFloater()" onmouseout="Microsoft.Translator.OnMouseOutFloater()"><div id="WidgetLogoPanel"><span id="WidgetTranslateWithSpan"><span>TRANSLATE with </span><img id="FloaterLogo" alt="" /></span> <span id="WidgetCloseButton" title="Exit Translation" onclick="Microsoft.Translator.FloaterOnClose()">x</span></div><div id="LanguageMenuPanel"><div class="DDStyle_outer"><input id="LanguageMenu_svid" style="display: none;" onclick="this.select()" type="text" name="LanguageMenu_svid" value="en" /> <input id="LanguageMenu_textid" style="display: none;" onclick="this.select()" type="text" name="LanguageMenu_textid" /> <span id="__LanguageMenu_header" class="DDStyle" onclick="return LanguageMenu &amp;&amp; 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