Modelling Disease Mitigation at Mass Gatherings: A Case Study of COVID-19 at the 2022 FIFA World Cup
Authors: Grunnill Martin , Arino Julien , McCarthy Zachary , Bragazzi Nicola Luigi , Coudeville Laurent , Thommes Edward W. , Amiche Amine , Ghasemi Abbas , Bourouiba Lydia , Tofighi Mohammadali , Asgary Ali , Baky-Haskuee Mortaza , Wu Jianhong 
Published: March 2023

AbstractThe 2022 FIFA World Cup was the first major multi-continental sporting Mass Gathering Event (MGE) of the post COVID-19 era to allow foreign spectators. Such large-scale MGEs can potentially lead to outbreaks of infectious disease and contribute to the global dissemination of such pathogens. Here we adapt previous work and create a generalisable model framework for assessing the use of disease control strategies at such events, in terms of reducing infections and hospitalisations. This framework utilises a combination of meta-populations based on clusters of people and their vaccination status, Ordinary Differential Equation integration between fixed time events, and Latin Hypercube sampling. We use the FIFA 2022 World Cup as a case study for this framework. Pre-travel screenings of visitors were found to have little effect in reducing COVID-19 infections and hospitalisations. With pre-match screenings of spectators and match staff being more effective. Rapid Antigen (RA) screenings 0.5 days before match day outperformed RT-PCR screenings 1.5 days before match day. A combination of pre-travel RT-PCR and pre-match RA testing proved to be the most successful screening-based regime. However, a policy of ensuring that all visitors had a COVID-19 vaccination (second or booster dose) within a few months before departure proved to be much more efficacious. The State of Qatar abandoned all COVID-19 related travel testing and vaccination requirements over the period of the World Cup. Our work suggests that the State of Qatar may have been correct in abandoning the pre-travel testing of visitors. However, there was a spike in COVID-19 cases and hospitalisations within Qatar over the World Cup. The research outlined here suggests a policy requiring visitors to have had a recent COVID-19 vaccination may have prevented the increase in COVID-19 cases and hospitalisations during the world cup.Author summaryMass Gathering Events (MGEs) can potentially lead to outbreaks of infectious disease and facilitate the dissemination of such pathogens. We have adapted previous work to create a framework for simulating disease transmission and mitigation at such MGEs. We use the 2022 FIFA World Cup as a test case for this framework. A policy of Pre-travel screenings of visitors was found to have little effect in reducing COVID-19 cases and hospitalisations. Pre-match screenings of spectators and match staff was found to be more effective. The most effective policy was to ensure that all visitors had a COVID-19 vaccination (second or booster dose) within a few months before departure. Qatar abandoned all COVID-19 related travel testing and vaccination requirements over the period of the World Cup. Our work suggests that the State of Qatar may have been correct in abandoning the pre-travel testing of visitors. However, there was a spike in COVID-19 cases and hospitalisations within Qatar over the World Cup. Given our findings, we suggest a policy requiring visitors to have had a recent COVID-19 vaccination may have prevented the increase in COVID-19 cases and hospitalisations during the world cup.