bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Analytic atheism: A cross-culturally weak and fickle phenomenon?
Authors: Gervais Will M. , van Elk Michiel , Xygalatas Dimitris , McKay Ryan T. , Aveyard Mark , Buchtel Emma E. , Dar-Nimrod Ilan , Klocová Eva Kundtová , Ramsay Jonathan E. , Riekki Tapani , Svedholm-Häkkinen Annika M. , Bulbulia Joseph 
Published: January 2023

AbstractReligious belief is a topic of longstanding interest to psychological science, but the psychology of religious disbelief is a relative newcomer. One prominently discussed model isanalytic atheism, wherein cognitive reflection, as measured with the Cognitive Reflection Test, overrides religious intuitions and instruction. Consistent with this model, performance-based measures of cognitive reflection predict religious disbelief in WEIRD (Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, & Democratic) samples. However, the generality of analytic atheism remains unknown. Drawing on a large global sample (N= 3461) from 13 religiously, demographically, and culturally diverse societies, we find that analytic atheism as usually assessed is in fact quite fickle cross-culturally, appearing robustly only in aggregate analyses and in three individual countries. The results provide additional evidence for culture’s effects on core beliefs.
Strategic thinking and behavior during a pandemic
Authors: Halevy Nir 
Published: January 2023

AbstractThis paper introduces a novel theoretical model and measure of strategic thinking in social decision making. The model distinguishes four strategic orientations: egocentric (thinking about how one’s actions shape one’s outcomes), impact (thinking about how one’s actions shapes others’ outcomes), dependency (thinking about how others’ actions shape one’s outcomes), and altercentric (thinking about how others’ actions shape their outcomes). Applying this model to explain social behavior in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, an exploratory study finds that the more people think about how their actions shape others’ outcomes, the more likely they are to: (a) comply with social distancing restrictions designed to curb the spread of the virus, and (b) donate money they received in the study to charitable organizations. These findings advance understanding of the multifaceted nature of strategic thinking and highlight the usefulness of the Strategic Thinking Scale for explaining social behavior.
Too smart for their own good: Trading truthfulness for efficiency in the Israeli medical internship market
Authors: Rosenfeld Ariel , Hassidim Avinatan 
Published: January 2023

AbstractThe two most fundamental notions in mechanism design are truthfulness and efficiency. In many market settings, such as the classic one-sided matching/assignment setting, these two properties partially conflict, creating a trade-off which is rarely examined in the real-world. In this article, we investigate this trade-off through the high-stakes Israeli medical internship market. This market used to employ a standard truthful yet sub-optimal mechanism and it has recently transitioned to an “almost” truthful, more efficient mechanism. Through this in-the-field study, spanning over two years, we study the interns’ behavior using both official data and targeted surveys. We first identify that substantial strategic behaviors are exercised by the participants, virtually eliminating any efficiency gains from the transition. In order to mitigate the above, we performed an intervention in which conclusive evidence was provided showing that, for most of the interns, reporting truthfully was much better than what they actually did. Unfortunately, a re-examination of the market reveals that our intervention had only minor effects. These results combine to question the practical benefits of “almost” truthfulness in real-world market settings and shed new light on the typical truthfulness-efficiency trade-off.
The way of making choices: Maximizing and satisficing and its relationship to well-being, personality, and self-rumination
Authors: Vargová Lenka , Zibrínová Ľubica , Baník Gabriel 
Published: January 2023

AbstractThere is a lively debate about the effect of maximizing and satisficing tendencies on well-being. The question is, whether maximizing and satisficing have an adaptive or maladaptive effect on well-being. There are also issues regarding the conceptualization and measurement of maximizing and satisficing tendencies. In a sample of 514 subjects from the general population in Slovakia, a two-component model of maximizing was examined. Satisficing tendency was measured as a separate construct. The results show the usefulness of a two-component model (maximizing as a strategy and maximizing as a goal) in measuring maximizing tendency. Maximizing as a strategy (measured as alternative search) turned out to be maladaptive (positively related to depression and negatively related to happiness), whereas maximizing as a goal (measured as high standards) had no maladaptive effect (no relation with well-being). In addition, the two components were differently associated with personality factors, which strengthens the need to distinguish between them. However, the satisficing tendency measured separately from maximizing tendency was not related to anything which raises a question about the conceptualization and validity of this tendency. The results of the current study, therefore, indicate that the (mal)adaptive effect of these tendencies depends on their conceptualization as well as on how these tendencies are measured, and also on their different relationship with personality factors. However, results also point to the importance of considering the cultural context that may have an effect on the relationship between maximizing and well-being. Therefore, the results may vary due to different cultures.
Information, incentives, and goals in election forecasts
Authors: Gelman Andrew , Hullman Jessica , Wlezien Christopher , Elliott Morris George 
Published: January 2023

AbstractPresidential elections can be forecast using information from political and economic conditions, polls, and a statistical model of changes in public opinion over time. However, these “knowns” about how to make a good presidential election forecast come with many unknowns due to the challenges of evaluating forecast calibration and communication. We highlight how incentives may shape forecasts, and particularly forecast uncertainty, in light of calibration challenges. We illustrate these challenges in creating, communicating, and evaluating election predictions, using the Economist and Fivethirtyeight forecasts of the 2020 election as examples, and offer recommendations for forecasters and scholars.
Eye-tracking evidence for fixation asymmetries in verbal and numerical quantifier processing
Authors: Holford Dawn Liu , Juanchich Marie , Foulsham Tom , Sirota Miroslav , Clarke Alasdair D. F. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractWhen people are given quantified information (e.g., ‘there is a 60% chance of rain’), the format of quantifiers (i.e., numerical: ‘a 60% chance’ vs. verbal: ‘it is likely’) might affect their decisions. Previous studies with indirect cues of judgements and decisions (e.g., response times, decision outcomes) give inconsistent findings that could support either a more intuitive process for verbal than numerical quantifiers or a greater focus on the context (e.g., rain) for verbal than numerical quantifiers. We used two pre-registered eye-tracking experiments (n(1) = 148, n(2) = 133) to investigate decision-making processes with verbal and numerical quantifiers. Participants evaluated multiple verbally or numerically quantified nutrition labels (Experiment 1) and weather forecasts (Experiment 2) with different context valence (positive or negative), and quantities (‘low’, ‘medium’, or ‘high’ in Experiment 1 and ‘possible’, ‘likely’, or ‘very likely’ in Experiment 2) presented in a fully within-subjects design. Participants looked longer at verbal than numerical quantifiers, and longer at the contextual information with verbal quantifiers. Quantifier format also affected judgements and decisions: in Experiment 1, participants judged positive labels to be better in the verbal compared to the equivalent numerical condition (and to be worse for negative labels). In Experiment 2, participants decided on rain protection more for a verbal forecast of rain than the equivalent numerical forecast. The results fit the explanation that verbal quantifiers put more focus on the informational context than do numerical quantifiers, rather than prompting more intuitive decisions.
On the validity of the CNI model of moral decision-making: Reply to Baron and Goodwin (2020)
Authors: Gawronski Bertram , Conway Paul , Hütter Mandy , Luke Dillon M. , Armstrong Joel , Friesdorf Rebecca 
Published: January 2023

AbstractThe CNI model of moral decision-making is a formal model that quantifies (1) sensitivity to consequences, (2) sensitivity to moral norms, and (3) general preference for inaction versus action in responses to moral dilemmas. Based on a critique of the CNI model’s conceptual assumptions, properties of the moral dilemmas for research using the CNI model, and the robustness of findings obtained with the CNI model against changes in model specifications, Baron and Goodwin (2020) dismissed the CNI model as a valid approach to study moral dilemma judgments. Here, we respond to their critique, showing that Baron and Goodwin’s dismissal of the CNI model is based on: (1) misunderstandings of key aspects of the model; (2) a conceptually problematic conflation of behavioral effects and explanatory mental constructs; (3) arguments that are inconsistent with empirical evidence; and (4) reanalyses that supposedly show inconsistent findings resulting from changes in model specifications, although the reported reanalyses did not actually use the CNI model and proper analyses with the CNI model yield consistent findings across model specifications. Although Baron and Goodwin’s critique reveals a need for greater precision in the description of the three model parameters and for greater attention to properties of individual dilemmas, the available evidence indicates that the CNI model is a valid, robust, and empirically sound approach to gaining deeper insights into the determinants of moral dilemma judgments, overcoming major limitations of the traditional approach that pits moral norms against consequences for the greater good (e.g., trolley dilemma).
When two wrongs make a right: The efficiency-consumption gap under separate vs. joint evaluations
Authors: Gamliel Eyal , Pe’er Eyal 
Published: January 2023

AbstractThe MPG illusion and the time-saving bias both show that people misjudge the gains from increases in efficiency or speed, because people falsely believe that efficiency and speed are linearly related to consumption (e.g., gallons of fuel or journey time). This efficiency-consumption gap (ECG) has been demonstrated consistently in various situations. In parallel, people have also been found to show a diminished sensitivity to increases in magnitudes when judged under separate vs. joint evaluation modes (SE vs. JE). We show that these “two wrongs can make a right”: when people judge efficiency upgrades under SE mode, their subjective judgments follow a concave curve that closely resembles the curvilinear pattern of efficiency upgrades, making their preferences (artificially) less biased than they are under JE. In two studies we show that when asked for their willingness-to-pay (WTP) for upgrading products or services in two (a smaller vs. a larger) upgrade options, WTPs are less different in SE vs. JE modes. This means that people are exhibiting lower sensitivity to the upgrade size under SE which leads to a de-biasing effect. We show that because JE follow a linear trend, it yields biased preferences for efficiency measures, but not for consumption measures. In contrast, SE yield biased preferences for consumption, but not for efficiency measures.
Anchoring without scale distortion
Authors: Bahník Štěpán 
Published: January 2023

AbstractThe scale distortion theory of anchoring argues that people are influenced by a previously considered numeric value, an anchor, because the anchor distorts the scale on which a subsequent judgment is made. The distortion of the scale due to the anchor is a momentary effect that would be overridden if the scale was distorted again, for example, by consideration of a different value on the same scale. In the present study, participants compared thirteen random anchors on the same scale to thirteen different objects. Subsequent numeric estimates of objects’ attributes were influenced by the corresponding anchors even though the anchors were divided from the estimates by twelve questions pertaining to different values on the same scale. The numeric value considered immediately before the estimate did not have a considerable effect on the judgment. While the anchoring effect was robust, it cannot be easily explained by scale distortion. Other possible theories of the anchoring effect are compatible with the results.
Seven (weak and strong) helping effects systematically tested in separate evaluation, joint evaluation and forced choice
Authors: Erlandsson Arvid 
Published: January 2023

AbstractIn ten studies (N = 9187), I systematically investigated the direction and size of seven helping effects (the identifiable-victim effect, proportion dominance effect, ingroup effect, existence effect, innocence effect, age effect and gender effect). All effects were tested in three decision modes (separate evaluation, joint evaluation and forced choice), and in their weak form (equal efficiency), or strong form (unequal efficiency). Participants read about one, or two, medical help projects and rated the attractiveness of and allocated resources to the project/projects, or choose which project to implement. The results show that the included help-situation attributes vary in their: (1) Evaluability – e.g., rescue proportion is the easiest to evaluate in separate evaluation. (2) Justifiability – e.g., people prefer to save fewer lives now rather than more lives in the future, but not fewer identified lives rather than more statistical lives. (3) Prominence – e.g., people express a preference to help females, but only when forced to choose.
Establishing the laws of preferential choice behavior
Authors: Bhatia Sudeep , Loomes Graham , Read Daniel 
Published: January 2023

AbstractMathematical and computational decision models are powerful tools for studying choice behavior, and hundreds of distinct decision models have been proposed over the long interdisciplinary history of decision making research. The existence of so many models has led to theoretical fragmentation and redundancy, obscuring key insights into choice behavior, and preventing consensus about the essential properties of preferential choice. We provide a synthesis of formal models of risky, multiattribute, and intertemporal choice, three important domains in decision making. We identify recurring insights discovered by scholars of different generations and different disciplines across these three domains, and use these insights to classify over 150 existing models as involving various combinations of eight key mathematical and computational properties. These properties capture the main avenues of theoretical development in decision making research and can be used to understand the similarities and differences between decision models, aiding both theoretical analyses and empirical tests.
Revenge is not blind: Testing the ability of retribution to justify dishonesty
Authors: Peleg Dar , Hochman Guy , Levine Timothy , Klar Yechiel , Ayal Shahar 
Published: January 2023

AbstractIn two studies, we tested the power of revenge as a justification mechanism that enables people to cheat with a clear conscience. Specifically, we explored the effects of prior dishonesty and unfairness towards participants on their subsequent moral behavior, as well as the physiological arousal associated with it. To this end, we employed a two-phase procedure. In the first phase, participants played one round of a bargaining game (the Ultimatum game in Study 1 and the Dictator game in Study 2) in which we manipulated whether the players had been treated (un)fairly and (dis)honestly by their opponent. In the second phase, they did a perceptual task that allowed them to cheat for monetary gain at the expense of their opponent from the first phase. In Study 1, participants also took a lie detector test to assess whether their dishonesty in the second phase could be detected. The behavioral results in both studies indicated that the opponent’s dishonesty was a stronger driver than the opponent’s unfairness for cheating as a form of retaliation. However, the physiological arousal results suggest that feeling mistreated in general (and not just cheated) allowed the participants to get revenge by cheating the offender while dismissing their associated guilt feelings.
Forecasting forecaster accuracy: Contributions of past performance and individual differences
Authors: Himmelstein Mark , Atanasov Pavel , Budescu David V. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractA growing body of research indicates that forecasting skill is a unique and stable trait: forecasters with a track record of high accuracy tend to maintain this record. But how does one identify skilled forecasters effectively? We address this question using data collected during two seasons of a longitudinal geopolitical forecasting tournament. Our first analysis, which compares psychometric traits assessed prior to forecasting, indicates intelligence consistently predicts accuracy. Next, using methods adapted from classical test theory and item response theory, we model latent forecasting skill based on the forecasters’ past accuracy, while accounting for the timing of their forecasts relative to question resolution. Our results suggest these methods perform better at assessing forecasting skill than simpler methods employed by many previous studies. By parsing the data at different time points during the competitions, we assess the relative importance of each information source over time. When past performance information is limited, psychometric traits are useful predictors of future performance, but, as more information becomes available, past performance becomes the stronger predictor of future accuracy. Finally, we demonstrate the predictive validity of these results on out-of-sample data, and their utility in producing performance weights for wisdom-of-crowds aggregations.
Consequences, norms, and inaction: Response to Gawronski et al. (2020)
Authors: Baron Jonathan , Goodwin Geoffrey P. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractIn response to arguments made by Gawronski et al. (2020), responding to Baron and Goodwin (2020), we concentrate on four issues. First, the CNI design requires substantial numbers of “perverse” responses to congruent items — those in which both consequences and norms both favor action, or both favor inaction — and these responses depend on the ambiguity of the items concerning which norms apply or which consequences are worse. Effects of outside variables, such as psychopathy, may result from the effect of such variables on the interpretation of ambiguous items, rather than from their effect on sensitivity to norms or consequences. Second, the CNI design may not be so useful at measuring general action/inaction biases. Third, the order of the two processes in the model could in fact affect the conclusions drawn (even though it does not do so in most studies done so far). Fourth, the conclusions drawn do in fact depend on the items’ susceptibility to reinterpretation (owing to their ambiguity): the tests proposed for item validity are too weak, since they require only that a majority of subjects agree with the experimenters’ classification, even though a minority could affect the conclusions drawn. We illustrate some of our points with an analysis of the psychopathy study of Luke and Gawronski (2020).
TEMAP2.R: True and Error model analysis program in R
Authors: Birnbaum Michael H. , Quispe-Torreblanca Edika G. 
Published: January 2023

AbstractTrue and Error Theory (TET) provides a method to separate the variability of behavior into components due to changing true policy and to random error. TET is a testable theory that can serve as a statistical model, allowing one to evaluate substantive theories as nested, special cases. TET is more accurate descriptively and has theoretical advantages over previous approaches. This paper presents a freely available computer program in R that can be used to fit and evaluate both TET and substantive theories that are special cases of it. The program performs Monte Carlo simulations to generate distributions of test statistics and bootstrapping to provide confidence intervals on parameter estimates. Use of the program is illustrated by a reanalysis of previously published data testing whether what appeared to be violations of Expected Utility (EU) theory (Allais paradoxes) by previous methods might actually be consistent with EU theory.
Thinking dynamics and individual differences: Mouse-tracking analysis of the denominator neglect task
Authors: Szaszi Barnabas , Palfi Bence , Szollosi Aba , Kieslich Pascal J. , Aczel Balazs 
Published: January 2023

AbstractMost decision-making models describing individual differences in heuristics and biases tasks build on the assumption that reasoners produce a first incorrect answer in a quick, automatic way which they may or may not override later and that the advantage of high capacity reasoners arises from this late correction mechanism. To investigate this assumption, we developed a mouse-tracking analysis technique to capture individuals’ first answers and subsequent thinking dynamics. Across two denominator neglect task experiments, we observed that individuals initially move the mouse cursor towards the correct answer option in a substantial number of cases suggesting that reasoners may not always produce an incorrect answer first. Furthermore, we observed that, compared to low capacity reasoners, high capacity individuals revise their first answer more frequently if it is incorrect and make fewer changes if it is correct. However, we did not find evidence that high capacity individuals produce correct initial answers more frequently. Consistent with the predictions of previous decision-making models, these results suggest that in the denominator neglect task the capacity-normativity relationship arises after the initial response is formulated. The present work demonstrates how the analysis of mouse trajectories can be utilized to investigate individual differences in decision-making and help us better apprehend the dynamics of thinking behind decision biases.
The opportunity-threat theory of decision-making under risk
Authors: Pandey Mohan 
Published: January 2023

AbstractA new theory of decision-making under risk, the Opportunity-Threat Theory is proposed. Analysis of risk into opportunity and threat components allows description of behavior as a combination of opportunity seeking and threat aversion. Expected utility is a special case of this model. The final evaluation is an integration of the impacts of opportunity and threat with this expectation. The model can account for basic results as well as several “new paradoxes” that refuted cumulative prospect theory in favor of configural weight models. The discussion notes similarities and differences of this model to the configural weight TAX model, which can also account for the new paradoxes.