bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Passing Strange: The Convergence of Evolutionary Science with Scientific History
Authors: McNeill William H. 
Published: March 2003

In the second half of the twentieth century, a surprising change in the notion of scientific truth gained ground when an evolutionary cosmology made the Newtonian world machine into no more than a passing phase of the cosmos, subject to exceptions in the neighborhood of black holes and other unusual objects. Physical and chemical laws ceased to be eternal and universal and became local and changeable, that is, fundamentally historical instead, and faced an uncertain, changeable future just as they had in the initial phases of the cosmos.The earth sciences along with biology had become historical in the nineteenth century; and the Big Bang cosmology in effect brought physics and chemistry into line, allowing venturesome intellects to concoct a new all‐embracing worldview that recognizes the catalytic role of the observer in defining what is observed, and how different levels of local complexity provoke new and surprising phenomena—including terrestrial life forms, and most notably for us, humanly‐constructed symbolic meanings—of which science is only oneexample.The article then argues that it is time for historians to take note of the imperial role thus thrust upon their discipline by making a sustained effort to enlarge their views and explore the career of humankind on earth as a whole, thus making human history an integral part of the emerging scientific and evolutionary worldview.Tentative suggestions of how this might be addressed, focusing on changes in patterns of communication that expanded the scale of human cooperation, and thus conduced to survival, follow. Dance, then speech, were early breakthroughs expanding the practicable size of wandering human bands; then caravans and shipping allowed civilizations to arise; writing expanded the scale of coordination; warfare and trade harshly imposed best practice across wide areas of Eurasia and Africa and kept the skills of that part of the world ahead of what the peoples of other continents and islands had at their command. Then with the crossing of the oceans after 1492 our One World began to emerge and swiftly assumed its contemporary shape with further improvements in the range and capacity of communication—for example, printing, mechanically‐powered transport, instantaneous data transmission—with consequences for human society and earth's ecosystem yet to be experienced.Much remains to be investigated and, in particular, interactions between the history of human symbolic meanings and the history of other equilibria—ecological, chemical, physical—within which we exist needs further study. But with suitable effort, history can perhaps become scientific and the emerging scientific evolutionary worldview begin to achieve logical completeness by bringing humankind within its scope.
Agency in the Discursive Condition
Authors: Ermarth Elizabeth Deeds 
Published: March 2003

This article claims that postmodernity necessarily, and perhaps opportunely, undermines the bases upon which political democracy traditionally has rested; and that therefore some significant work must be done in order to redefine, restore, or otherwise reconfigure democratic values and institutions for a changed cultural condition. This situation presents the opportunity to explore the new options, positive openings, and discursive opportunities that postmodernity presents for political practice; for this the problem of agency provides a focal issue.The practices of postmodernity, taken together, represent substantial challenges, not just to this or that cherished habit, but to modernity itself and all its corollaries, including its inventions of objectivity, of “the individual” (miserable treasure), and of all the related values (project, capital, consensus and, above all, neutrality) which still underwrite so much of what we do as citizens, consumers, and professionals not to mention as more private persons, parents, and partners. Fortunately, postmodernity does not demolish all our most cherished beliefs, values, and practices; but it does require recognition of how those beliefs, values, and practices actually function and of what alternatives they suppress.
The Determinants of Stock Price Exposure: Financial Engineering and the Gold Mining Industry
Authors: Tufano Peter 
Published: March 2003

ABSTRACTThis paper studies the exposure of North American gold mining firms to changes in the price of gold. The average mining stock moves 2 percent for each 1 percent change in gold prices, but exposures vary considerably over time and across firms. As predicted by valuation models, gold firm exposures are significantly negatively related to the firm's hedging and diversification activities and to gold prices and gold return volatility, and are positively related to firm leverage. Simple discounted cash flow models produce useful exposure predictions but they systematically overestimate exposures, possibly due to their failure to reflect managerial flexibility.
Investor Psychology and Security Market Under‐ and Overreactions
Authors: Daniel Kent , Hirshleifer David , Subrahmanyam Avanidhar 
Published: March 2003

ABSTRACTWe propose a theory of securities market under‐ and overreactions based on two well‐known psychological biases: investor overconfidence about the precision of private information; and biased self‐attribution, which causes asymmetric shifts in investors' confidence as a function of their investment outcomes. We show that overconfidence implies negative long‐lag autocorrelations, excess volatility, and, when managerial actions are correlated with stock mispricing, public‐event‐based return predictability. Biased self‐attribution adds positive short‐lag autocorrelations (“momentum”), short‐run earnings “drift,” but negative correlation between future returns and long‐term past stock market and accounting performance. The theory also offers several untested implications and implications for corporate financial policy.
Home Bias at Home: Local Equity Preference in Domestic Portfolios
Authors: Coval Joshua D. , Moskowitz Tobias J. 
Published: March 2003

ABSTRACTThe strong bias in favor of domestic securities is a well‐documented characteristic of international investment portfolios, yet we show that the preference for investing close to home also applies to portfolios of domestic stocks. Specifically, U.S. investment managers exhibit a strong preference for locally headquartered firms, particularly small, highly levered firms that produce nontraded goods. These results suggest that asymmetric information between local and nonlocal investors may drive the preference for geographically proximate investments, and the relation between investment proximity and firm size and leverage may shed light on several well‐documented asset pricing anomalies.
Herding and Feedback Trading by Institutional and Individual Investors
Authors: Nofsinger John R. , Sias Richard W. 
Published: March 2003

ABSTRACTWe document strong positive correlation between changes in institutional ownership and returns measured over the same period. The result suggests that either institutional investors positive‐feedback trade more than individual investors or institutional herding impacts prices more than herding by individual investors. We find evidence that both factors play a role in explaining the relation. We find no evidence, however, of return mean‐reversion in the year following large changes in institutional ownership—stocks institutional investors purchase subsequently outperform those they sell. Moreover, institutional herding is positively correlated with lag returns and appears to be related to stock return momentum.
Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk
Authors: Campbell John Y. , Lettau Martin , Malkiel Burton G. , Xu Yexiao 
Published: March 2003

ABSTRACTThis paper uses a disaggregated approach to study the volatility of common stocks at the market, industry, and firm levels. Over the period from 1962 to 1997 there has been a noticeable increase in firm‐level volatility relative to market volatility. Accordingly, correlations among individual stocks and the explanatory power of the market model for a typical stock have declined, whereas the number of stocks needed to achieve a given level of diversification has increased. All the volatility measures move together countercyclically and help to predict GDP growth. Market volatility tends to lead the other volatility series. Factors that may be responsible for these findings are suggested.
Affine Term Structure Models and the Forward Premium Anomaly
Authors: Backus David K. , Foresi Silverio , Telmer Chris I. 
Published: March 2003

ABSTRACTOne of the most puzzling features of currency prices is the forward premium anomaly: the tendency for high interest rate currencies to appreciate. We characterize the anomaly in the context of affine models of the term structure of interest rates. In affine models, the anomaly requires either that state variables have asymmetric effects on state prices in different currencies or that nominal interest rates take on negative values with positive probability. We find the quantitative properties of either alternative to have important shortcomings.
Optimal Portfolio Choice for Long‐Horizon Investors with Nontradable Labor Income
Authors: Viceira Luis M. 
Published: March 2003

ABSTRACTThis paper examines how risky labor income and retirement affect optimal portfolio choice. With idiosyncratic labor income risk, the optimal allocation to stocks is unambiguously larger for employed investors than for retired investors, consistent with the typical recommendations of investment advisors. Increasing idiosyncratic labor income risk raises investors' willingness to save and reduces their stock portfolio allocation towards the level of retired investors. Positive correlation between labor income and stock returns has a further negative effect and can actually reduce stockholdings below the level of retired investors.
Market Liquidity and Trading Activity
Authors: Chordia Tarun , Roll Richard , Subrahmanyam Avanidhar 
Published: March 2003

ABSTRACTPrevious studies of liquidity span short time periods and focus on the individual security. In contrast, we study aggregate market spreads, depths, and trading activity for U.S. equities over an extended time sample. Daily changes in market averages of liquidity and trading activity are highly volatile and negatively serially dependent. Liquidity plummets significantly in down markets. Recent market volatility induces a decrease in trading activity and spreads. There are strong day‐of‐the‐week effects; Fridays accompany a significant decrease in trading activity and liquidity, while Tuesdays display the opposite pattern. Long‐ and short‐term interest rates influence liquidity. Depth and trading activity increase just prior to major macroeconomic announcements.
Corporate Bond Trading Costs: A Peek Behind the Curtain
Authors: Schultz Paul 
Published: March 2003

ABSTRACTIn this paper, I use institutional corporate bond trade data to estimate transactions costs in the over‐the‐counter bond market. I find average round‐trip trading costs to be about $0.27 per $100 of par value. Trading costs are lower for larger trades. Small institutions pay more to trade than large institutions, all else being equal. Small bond dealers charge more than large ones. I find no evidence that trading costs more for lower‐rated bonds.
Expected Option Returns
Authors: Coval Joshua D. , Shumway Tyler 
Published: March 2003

ABSTRACTThis paper examines expected option returns in the context of mainstream asset‐pricing theory. Under mild assumptions, expected call returns exceed those of the underlying security and increase with the strike price. Likewise, expected put returns are below the risk‐free rate and increase with the strike price. S&P index option returns consistently exhibit these characteristics. Under stronger assumptions, expected option returns vary linearly with option betas. However, zero‐beta, at‐the‐money straddle positions produce average losses of approximately three percent per week. This suggests that some additional factor, such as systematic stochastic volatility, is priced in option returns.
The Diversification Discount: Cash Flows Versus Returns
Authors: Lamont Owen A. , Polk Christopher 
Published: March 2003

ABSTRACTDiversified firms have different values from comparable portfolios of single‐segment firms. These value differences must be due to differences in either future cash flows or future returns. Expected security returns on diversified firms vary systematically with relative value. Discount firms have significantly higher subsequent returns than premium firms. Slightly more than half of the cross‐sectional variation in excess values is due to variation in expected future cash flows, with the remainder due to variation in expected future returns and to covariation between cash flows and returns.
Location Matters: An Examination of Trading Profits
Authors: Hau Harald 
Published: March 2003

ABSTRACTThe electronic trading system Xetra of the German Security Exchange provides a unique data source on the equity trades of 756 professional traders located in 23 different cities and eight European countries. We explore informational asymmetries across the trader population: Traders located outside Germany in non‐German‐speaking cities show lower proprietary trading profit. Their underperformance is not only statistically significant, it is also of economically significant magnitude and occurs for the 11 largest German blue‐chip stocks. We also examine whether a trader location in Frankfurt as the financial center, or local proximity of the trader to the corporate headquarters of the traded stock, or affiliation with a large financial institution results in superior trading performance. The data provide no evidence for a financial center advantage or of increasing institutional scale economies in proprietary trading. However, we find evidence for an information advantage due to corporate headquarters proximity for high‐frequency (intraday) trading.
Dividend Changes and Future Profitability
Authors: Nissim Doron , Ziv Amir 
Published: March 2003

ABSTRACTWe investigate the relation between dividend changes and future profitability, measured in terms of either future earnings or future abnormal earnings. Supporting “the information content of dividends hypothesis,” we find that dividend changes provide information about the level of profitability in subsequent years, incremental to market and accounting data. We also document that dividend changes are positively related to earnings changes in each of the two years after the dividend change.
The Stock Market Valuation of Research and Development Expenditures
Authors: Chan Louis K. C. , Lakonishok Josef , Sougiannis Theodore 
Published: March 2003

ABSTRACTWe examine whether stock prices fully value firms' intangible assets, specifically research and development (R&D). Under current U.S. accounting standards, financial statements do not report intangible assets and R&D spending is expensed. Nonetheless, the average historical stock returns of firms doing R&D matches the returns of firms without R&D. However, the market is apparently too pessimistic about beaten‐down R&D‐intensive technology stocks' prospects. Companies with high R&D to equity market value (which tend to have poor past returns) earn large excess returns. A similar relation exists between advertising and stock returns. R&D intensity is positively associated with return volatility.
Takeover Defenses of IPO Firms
Authors: Field Laura Casares , Karpoff Jonathan M. 
Published: March 2003

ABSTRACTMany firms deploy takeover defenses when they go public. IPO managers tend to deploy defenses when their compensation is high, shareholdings are small, and oversight from nonmanagerial shareholders is weak. The presence of a defense is negatively related to subsequent acquisition likelihood, yet has no impact on takeover premiums for firms that are acquired. These results do not support arguments that takeover defenses facilitate the eventual sale of IPO firms at high takeover premiums. Rather, they suggest that managers shift the cost of takeover protection onto nonmanagerial shareholders. Thus, agency problems are important even for firms at the IPO stage.
No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements
Authors: Forbes Kristin J. , Rigobon Roberto 
Published: March 2003

ABSTRACTHeteroskedasticity biases tests for contagion based on correlation coefficients. When contagion is defined as a significant increase in market comovement after a shock to one country, previous work suggests contagion occurred during recent crises. This paper shows that correlation coefficients are conditional on market volatility. Under certain assumptions, it is possible to adjust for this bias. Using this adjustment, there was virtually no increase in unconditional correlation coefficients (i.e., no contagion) during the 1997 Asian crisis, 1994 Mexican devaluation, and 1987 U.S. market crash. There is a high level of market comovement in all periods, however, which we call interdependence.
Nonparametric Estimation of State‐Price Densities Implicit in Financial Asset Prices
Authors: Aït‐Sahalia Yacine , Lo Andrew W. 
Published: March 2003

ABSTRACTImplicit in the prices of traded financial assets are Arrow–Debreu prices or, with continuous states, the state‐price density (SPD). We construct a nonparametric estimator for the SPD implicit in option prices and we derive its asymptotic sampling theory. This estimator provides an arbitrage‐free method of pricing new, complex, or illiquid securities while capturing those features of the data that are most relevant from an asset‐pricing perspective, for example, negative skewness and excess kurtosis for asset returns, and volatility “smiles” for option prices. We perform Monte Carlo experiments and extract the SPD from actual S&P 500 option prices.
Chapter Four: The Aspect Hypothesis
Authors: Bardovi‐Harlig Kathleen 
Published: March 2003

The Aspect Hypothesis, p.192In Primary Language Acquisition, p.193In Second Language Acquisition, p.195Grammatical and Lexical Aspect, p.205Investigations of the Aspect Hypothesis in Second Language Acquisition, p.227The Spread of Perfective Past, p.228The Spread of Imperfective Past, p.234The Spread of Progressive, p.237Overgeneralization of Progressive in States, p.238Sample Study: The Distribution of Verbal Morphology in Learner Narratives, p.239Assessing the Influence of Lexical Aspect, p.251Challenges to the Aspect Hypothesis, p.265Chapter Summary, p.272
Appraising the Prize: Three Books in Review
Authors: Abrams Irwin 
Published: March 2003

Helena Cobban, The Moral Architecture of World Peace: Nobel Laureates Discuss Our Global FutureJeffrey Hopkins, (ed.), The Art of Peace: Nobel Peace Laureates Discuss Human Rights, Conflict, and ReconciliationBurton Feldman, The Nobel Prize: A History of Genius, Controversy, and Prestige
The Extended Case Method
Authors: Burawoy Michael 
Published: March 2003

In this article I elaborate and codify the extended case method, which deploys participant observation to locate everyday life in its extralocal and historical context. The extended case method emulates a reflexive model of science that takes as its premise the intersubjectivity of scientist and subject of study. Reflexive science valorizes intervention, process, structuration, and theory reconstruction. It is the Siamese twin of positive science that proscribes reactivity, but upholds reliability, replicability, and representativeness. Positive science, exemplified by survey research, works on the principle of the separation between scientists and the subjects they examine. Positive science is limited by “context effects” (interview, respondent, field, and situational effects) while reflexive science is limited by “power effects” (domination, silencing, objectification, and normalization). The article concludes by considering the implications of having two models of science rather than one, both of which are necessarily flawed. Throughout I use a study of postcolonialism to illustrate both the virtues and the shortcomings of the extended case method. Methodology can only bring us reflective understanding of the means which have demonstrated their value in practice by raising them to the level of explicit consciousness; it is no more the precondition of fruitful intellectual work than the knowledge of anatomy is the precondition of“correct” walking. Max Weber— The Methodology of the Social Sciences
Earthquake Response Spectra Models Incorporating Fuzzy Logic with Statistics
Authors: Wadia‐Fascetti Sara , Gunes Burcu 
Published: March 2003

It is well accepted that the ground motion at a site depends on the rupture mechanism, source‐to‐site distance, local geologic conditions, and energy released by the earthquake. However, design spectra represent expected responses that do not explicitly include the influence of the uncertainties associated with these fundamental features. The objective of this article is to present a viable methodology that can be used to develop a response spectra using fuzzy logic and statistical analysis and to demonstrate how fuzzy‐statistical response spectra can be used to evaluate potential structural response.Site‐specific response spectra from the Northridge earthquake are used to develop response spectra models that quantify uncertainties inherent to the ground motion. The uncertainty in these computational models is quantified using fuzzy‐set logic, statistics, and random vibrations. The local geologic conditions are characterized as rock or alluvium, and fuzzy sets are used to represent near, intermediate, and far epicentral distances. Proposed ground‐motion models are used to define uncertain input motion for use in dynamic analyses of an example building. The resulting structural responses are compared with those obtained from time‐dependent accelerations. Comparisons are made with the current design codes, and suggested implementation strategies for the proposed models are discussed.
Mines and Labour Migrants in Southern Africa
Authors: Maloka Tshidiso 
Published: March 2003

Jonathan Crush, Alan Jeeves and David Yudelman, South Africa's Labor Empire: A History of Black Migrancy to the Gold Mines (Westview Press: David Philip, Boulder: Cape Town, 1991), xvi+266 pp.Patrick Harries, Work, Culture, and Identity: Migrant Laborers in Mozambique and South Africa, c.1860–1910 (Heinemann: Witwatersrand University Press: James Curry, Portsmouth: Johannesburg: London: 1994), xxiii+305 pp.T. Dunbar Moodie (with Vivienne Ndatshe), Going for Gold: Men, Mines and Migration (University of California Press, Berkeley, 1994), xxi+337 pp.Wilmot G. James, Our Precious Metal: African Labour in South Africa's Gold Industry, 1970–1990 (David Philip: Indiana University Press: James Currey, Cape Town: Bloomington: London, 1992), ix+188 pp.