bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
USE OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS FOR A SHORT‐TERM ECONOMETRIC MODEL: 1954–1966
Authors: Shishido S. , Kohno A. , Nagaya S. , Tanaka S. 
Published: April 2005

A quarterly macro‐econometric model of Japan's postwar economy has been constructed for the period 1954–1965 FY on the basis of standardized quarterly national income accounts. The model is designed for facilitating short‐term economic forecasting and formulating adequate fiscal and monetary policy. Longer‐term factors such as labor mobility, technical progress, etc., were also considered in the model.The model consists of fifty‐three equations related to most of the macroeconomic variables in both money and real terms, and the equations were estimated in principle by the limited information maximum likelihood method. Principal exogenous variables related to policy instruments are government expenditures including transfers, parameters of tax functions, interest rate, and prices and fares controlled by the government, etc. In formulating the model, non‐linear specifications were used whenever found necessary.Results of our testing on its predictive capability indicated fairly satisfactory performances for our observation period and also for 1966 FY. Multipliers related to fiscal and monetary policy were also obtained, indicating the dynamic characteristics of the Japanese economy, in particular, represented by dynamic business fixed investment, as compared with corresponding multipliers of the U.S. models.Although the model is exploratory and to serve as a core for a more disaggregated “Master Model,” the usefulness of the model for our purposes and the workability of our quarterly national accounts data for model‐building have been recognized. The quarterly data, however, still remain to be improved especially in regard to consistency between income and expenditure and integration with flow‐of‐funds accounts.
AN EXAMINATION OF THE FEASIBILITY OF USING MONETARY DATA FOR NATIONAL INCOME ESTIMATES
Authors: Duggar Jan Warren 
Published: April 2005

In a number of underdeveloped countries today, adequate statistics for estimating national output by traditional national accounting methods are unavailable or unreliable. However, many of these same countries do publish data on monetary variables at an early stage in their development. These data can now be used to estimate national income.In this study the money supply was defined to include all currency in circulation, private deposits subject to check at all banks and postal systems, all government deposits, and unused overdrafts less float. The national accounts data were taken from United Nations sources and data supplied by various foreign statistical offices. To make the accounts more comparable in terms of coverage and to limit reported income to the monetized sector of the economy, non‐monetary imputations were deleted.The monetary and national accounts data were combined in a multiple, stepwise regression. National income was used as the dependent variable and money supply and other data were used as the independent variables. The final estimating equations explained about 96 per cent of the variation in income between countries. Other tests were conducted using the currency ratio, transactions velocity, population, and per capita consumption. However, these variables did not augment the explanatory power of the regression equations.When the equations were used to estimate national income for twenty‐two under‐developed countries, the derived estimates showed a high degree of concordance with reported income where it existed for comparative purposes. The results indicate that monetary data can be used to estimate national income for underdeveloped countries with a relatively high degree of accuracy, between countries, and from year to year within a country.
EDUCATION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT‐THE CANADIAN CASE*
Authors: Firestone O. J. 
Published: April 2005

This study assesses the relationship of education and economic growth, economic development and economic progress in aggregate, in structural and in micro‐economic terms on the basis of one hundred years of Canadian experience. Education is considered as a factor of input. The contribution made by knowledge resulting from additional education expands the capacity to produce, and increases the demand for goods and services and the desire for greater leisure. The dual function of education is stressed: the demand and supply effect. Education is examined both as a cause and a consequence of economic growth, economic development and economic progress, through its contribution to the quality of the labour force, earning capacity, both individual and national, productivity, the rate of economic growth and the character of economic development.The Canadian experience suggests that educational progress generally occurred in line with economic development during the first eight decades, with the real take‐off in educational advancement only occurring in the last two decades, when the nation reached the stage of technological maturity and high mass‐consumption. Among the reasons for the lower ratio of gross national product devoted to education in the first eight decades were the low priority attached to education, the emphasis on investment in physical capital because of its shorter pay‐off period than investment in human capital, and the heavy reliance on a substantial flow of immigrants who had obtained their education and training abroad. A distinct change occurred, however, in the last two decades, partly as a result of new technological challenges and partly as the result of changes in private and public attitudes, as the recognition of the rewards of education in terms of individual advancement and social progress led to a greater willingness to devote an increasing proportion of the nation's resources to investment in human capital, long pay‐off periods notwithstanding.
NATIONAL PRODUCT AT CONSTANT PRICES IN THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY
Authors: Bartels Hildegard 
Published: April 2005

With few exceptions, only cormmodity flows and values which can be determined by means of commodity flows (flows of goods and services) are calculated in constant prices in the official national accounts of the Federal Republic of Germany. Figures an the industrial origin and the final use of the national product are published, the former according to thirty industries, the latter according to the major types of uses of which in particular private consumption expenditure has been further analysed.The computations at constant prices are based on market prices and not on factor costs. It is only on this basis that a uniform valuation of the production and the expenditure side can be made since the turnover tax, which is the most important indirect tax, is contained in the elements of final demand in varying shares and cannot be eliminated (the tax is part of the price and has cumulative effect).The computation at constant prices presupposes a breakdown of the values in current prices according to quantities and prices. This raises a number of problems, e.g. because seller and buyer may consider differing aspects‐production costs, technical attributes, etc., on the one hand, and use etc., on the other hand. In part there exist only vague ideas, or no ideas at all, as to what is to be considered‐from a theoretical point of view‐as quantity and price. In other cases the two values can only with great difficulties, if at all, be quantified, or there exists no market price and only the production costs are available. The author deals in greater detail with differences in quality and new commodities, the determination and treatment of quantities and prices for services, in particular for trade services (services attached to goods), the computation of government services at constant prices considering the development of productivity in public service, the determination of the values calculated as balances, above all the treatment of changes in the terms of trade for net exports of goods and services, the computation of the contributions of industries to the gross domestic product and, finally, the reconciliation of the production and the expenditure side.In a third section the author deals with index formulae and the base year. In the majority of cases values are deflated; partly, however, they are currently adjusted by means of volume and quantity data. On the production side the two methods are in part combined.In a concluding section a survey is provided of the computation methods used in the Federal Republic of Germany and on the available material for the computations. Mention is made of depreciation at constant prices.
THE STOCK PROBLEM IN HUNGARY
Authors: Fogaras‐Zala Julia 
Published: April 2005

In The Present Paper The Author Reviews The Results Of An Investigation Aimed At Estimating The relative level of stocks in Hungary in terms of international comparisons. Though international comparison was limited by scarcity of data, it has still become evident that stocks as a whole, compared to production and sales, seem to be unnecessarily high. The investigation has been carried out in relation both to the level of stocks and their rate of increase.The global volume and building of stocks, however, did not give a satisfactory explanation, and the investigation had to be extended to the individual groups of stocks separately. In order to facilitate the comparison, stocks were classified into the following groups: agricultural stocks, goods in process, industrial finished goods and manufactures held by users, and retail stocks. The classification was based on the different function of the individual groups. This classification of stocks could be compared only with the data of the U.S A.The international comparison revealed that both the volume and the rate of increase of stocks in Hungary is unreasonably high. They are high even if we consider that the growth rate of the economy in Hungary was greater than in any of the countries examined.The author refers to the fact that the stock problem was one of the starting issues in the economic research process which led to the reform of the Hungarian economic management system introduced on 1st January 1968.
CLASSIFICATION OF SOURCES OF GROWTH
Authors: Denison Edward F. 
Published: April 2005

Changes in many output determinants contribute to growth. An analysis of the sources of growth is an allocation of changes in output among these determinants. Total factor input and output per unit of input condense all determinants into two groupings. Misinterpretation of results is common because authors presenting either detailed or summary results often provide no complete or precise description of their classification of determinants, and readers ignore even the information provided. The classification suggested in this paper is detailed enough to bring out points at which description is required but often overlooked. Some effects of alternative estimating procedures on classification are described.The relative usefulness and practicality of possible alternative classifications also need consideration and discussion. This paper is concerned with general purpose classifications, appropriate for analysis of actual series measuring a country's total output, that are suitable for present use but will also accommodate useful detail that may later become feasible. A desirable classification will so specify determinants that (1) they both unite cause with effect and correspond to the economist's method of analysis so that his set of tools can be brought to bear; (2) they do not contribute to growth if they do not change; and (3) they conform as well as possible to practical possibility of estimation. Among several points considered fundamental are that the complete contributions of advances in knowledge and of resource reallocation each appear as an entity. They should not be dispersed among inputs or other determinants. It is less clear whether economies of scale should be a separate determinant or their contribution be dispersed.
COMBINING INPUTS TO SECURE A MEASURE OF TOTAL FACTOR INPUT*
Authors: Daly Donald J. 
Published: April 2005

An underlying theme in this paper is that the differences in approach in this area arise partly from the complexity of the phenomena in the real world being studied, the implications of this interrelated complexity for unbiassed and efficient estimates of the structural relations, and the problems of getting an adequate number of observations of the required form.Two distinct approaches have been used in the study of marginal and total factor productivity. One approach is to use the factor shares in national income as weights to combine the individual factor inputs to make an index of total factor input, and to use a factor's relative share to measure its marginal contribution. The second approach is to estimate the production relation from the data being used, and derive the marginal contribution of the productive factors to output from the estimated relation. The longest parts of the paper review the procedures followed to cope with the main problems in the real world, and the strengths and limitations in the two approaches. The discussion emphasizes the issues for the economy as a whole, and touches only briefly on the issues in disaggregation.Three major themes are emphasized in the conclusions to the paper. One is that many of the problems, the differences in view, and the controversies grow out of the range of interrelated issues in practical applications. A second major theme is that most of the attempts to solve particular issues by those using the factor shares approach are rather similar to those followed by researchers estimating the production relations directly. A third theme is to encourage more studies that will look at the interconnections between production relations and income distribution, from the points of view of both economic theory (and its predictions about the relevance to concrete applications) and statistical estimation.
THE TREATMENT OF INTANGIBLE RESOURCES AS CAPITAL
Authors: Kendrick John W. 
Published: April 2005

The author describes the results of his current research designed to measure total investment, tangible and intangible, and the derived capital stocks for the U.S., 1929–1966. With respect to total investment, the estimates show a marked increase in its ratio to GNP. All of the increase occurs in the intangible component comprising R & D, education and training, health, and mobility. The increase was concentrated in the government sector, although households increased the proportion of disposable personal income devoted to total investment.Consistent with the relative investment trends, the stock of intangible capital grew considerably faster than the tangible stock. The growth of total capital stocks was somewhat less than that of GNP, however, in both current and constant prices. Thus, the rate of return on total capital rose somewhat over the period. Average rates of return on human and nonhuman capital were closely similar.In real terms, the growth of total capital stocks accounted for two‐thirds of the growth in real GNP, 1929–1966. One‐third of the growth is attributed to residual forces, chiefly economies of scale, changes in inherent quality of human and natural resources, changes in values and motivations, and changes in rates of utilization of capacity.The growth of the ratio of real intangible stocks to real tangible stocks accounted for less than half of the increase in total factor productivity 1929–1966. This is significantly less than the contribution of intangibles as estimated by Denison, and the author adduces several reasons why his estimates may understate the contribution. Nevertheless, it seems that the net effect of the residual forces enumerated above must also have made a substantial contribution to the growth of tangible factor productivity and real GNP over the 37‐year period.
WHAT ACCOUNTS FOR JAPAN'S HIGH RATE OF GROWTH?*
Authors: Kanamori Hisao 
Published: April 2005

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the sources of economic growth in Japan and to compare the results with those in the U.S. and Europe as studied by E. F. Denison. The method used by Denison is followed as far as possible. The character of this paper is of fact finding, and the interpretation of results or the originality of methodology is not dealt with here. The results may be summarized as follows.(1) Japan's growth rate is two times that of Europe and three times that of the United States.(2) The contributions of labor, capital, and the residual to economic growth are all higher for Japan than for the U.S. or Europe.(3) Factors which account for the higher contribution of labor to economic growth are (a) the higher rate of increase in employment, (b) less shortening of working hours, and (c) improved age and sex composition.(4) Factors which account for the higher contribution of capital to economic growth are a higher rate of increase in capital input and the high elasticity of production with respect to capital.(5) Other notable points include: (a) the contribution of education is lower for Japan; (b) the capital‐labor ratio in Japan increased remarkably; (c) capital's share of national income is higher; and (d) 60% of Japan's economic growth is accounted for by the residual.
EXCHANGE RATE PROBLEMS IN NATIONAL ACCOUNTING OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES*
Authors: Gaathon A. L. 
Published: April 2005

Developing countries which typically have import surpluses and inflationary pressures because of insufficient savings are prone to use indirect taxes on imports (Tm) and subsidization of exports (Sx) in order to prevent deterioration of the balance of trade. If these substitutes for devaluation are included in the net indirect tax component of product at current market prices (Ym) the import surplus is likely to be understated, and Ym upward biased. This distortion will be avoided if imports and exports are measured at effective exchange rates (ER), that is, at official rates (OR) plus Tm and Sx respectively, and if (Tm ‐ Sx) is deducted from the net indirect tax component of Ym. Only in this manner become imports and exports consistent with the other uses and resources at market prices and can be articulated with them. At base‐year prices the volume index of product at OR diverges from that of ER to the degree that the composition of imports and exports in regard to tax and subsidy rates computed ad valorem significantly changes.Such a case is similar to that of the price indexes of imports and exports moving in diverging proportions: the trade balance at base‐year prices will differ from that at current prices. The resulting discrepancies in national accounts have led to proposals of deflating, for example, exports by the price index of imports. Suchlike approaches are incompatible with the principle of national accounting that prices are supposed already to measure substitution values. Deflating exports by import prices means reintroducing substitution values, as does, for example, deflation of incomes by a consumer price index. Correspondingly, since the trade balance at ER conceptually expresses the value of imports at domestic market prices as compared to the corresponding domestic market value of exports, and if at ER the trade balance diverges from that at OR, the former balance has an important meaning (as has the trade balance at base‐year prices as compared to that at current prices) and the resulting discrepancy between the two measures should not be removed merely for the sake of accounting smoothness.In contrast to the market price approach, the measurement of product at base‐year factor cost is indifferent to the measurement of the trade balance at ER and at OR.It is, therefore, proposed in countries in which part of import taxation and export subsidization substitutes for devaluation, to record imports and exports in the national accounts at effective exchange rates, and to correct the net indirect tax component of product correspondingly. Imports and exports at official exchange rates should be shown within the balance of payments, and the latter separately as a memorandum item.
A SIMPLIFIED INTEGRATED FORM OF SNA AND MPS*
Authors: Choudhury Uma Datta Roy 
Published: April 2005

At present two systems of measurement of national product are in practice, one as defined in the UN System of National Accounts (SNA) and the other termed the Material Product System (MPS) or National Balances for the Economy. In the present paper, an expanded system of accounts integrating the national balances within the framework of a simplified SNA has been suggested. The accounts suggested are mainly the two sets of (i) Supply, Disposition and Domestic Production of goods and services and Consumption Expenditure of Budget and Mixed Organisations and the Population, and (ii) Income and Outlay and Capital Formation Accounts.The system is convenient not only for arriving at estimates by either of the two approaches, but is readily manageable. This set of accounts can, without any effort, be put in the form of a matrix leading to its ultimate integration with either the UN System of National Accounts or a modified system of national balances.The system gives not only the integrated system of SNA and national balances, but also a coded list of transactors and transactions within the economy. This coded list can be used as the first set of information for the creation of the economic data bank for the Integrated Statistical Information System.
NOTES ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES AND THEIR STATISTICS
Authors: Jaffe A. J. 
Published: April 2005

Statistics for developing countries often are misunderstood and misinterpreted because the published data do not distinguish between the economically modern and the traditional sectors. The purpose of economic development is to move a nation from the traditional, or largely non‐monetary, subsistence agriculture type of life, to the modern or money oriented and technologically developed type. Statistics of national accounts, the economically active (the working force), and other topics often fail to be useful for economic development purposes because they are presented for the totality of the country and do not show the modern‐traditional sectors separately.In addition, data are often misinterpreted and used incorrectly because the development economists do not understand the nature of the data—how they were collected and what they really signify. This point is illustrated with the economically active statistics. Finally, a plea is made for more statistics and information about families.
WEIGHTING OF INDEX NUMBERS IN MULTILATERAL INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Authors: Drechsler László 
Published: April 2005

The article reviews the methods used in practice and/or proposed by various authors for compiling indices in multilateral international comparisons. The various procedures are examined in the light of the following requirements: characteristicity (i.e. the weights should be characteristic to the countries which are compared), unbiasedness, circularity, internal consistency and factor relations.There is no perfect solution since characteristicity and circularity are always and unbiasedness and internal consistency often in conflict with each other. The indices which are best for bilateral purposes are not transitive and the basic problem of multilateral comparisons is to obtain circularity, without losing too much of the characteristicity of the bilateral comparisons. Different compromises between the two requirements are possible and this is first of all what distinguishes the various methods used in practice.Two main types of solution are applied in the various international comparisons. The first is based on the inter‐spatial Fisher's ideal formula (e.g. the Eltetö–Köves–Szulc method, the van Yzeren method, the “central country” solution); the second type uses some kind of average prices (e.g. the Geary–Khamis method).In the author's view there is no best method in absolute terms. Every method has some weaknesses and which of these weaknesses is the easiest to accept depends to a large extent on the actual aims of the comparison and on various other circumstances.