bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Bimodal Behavior in the Zonal Mean Flow of a Baroclinic β-Channel Model
Authors: Kravtsov S. , Robertson A. W. , Ghil M. 
Published: June 2005

Abstract
The dynamical origin of midlatitude zonal-jet variability is examined in a thermally forced, quasigeostrophic, two-layer channel model on a β plane. The model’s behavior is studied as a function of the bottom-friction strength.
Two distinct zonal-flow states exist at realistic, low, and intermediate values of the bottom drag; these two states are maintained by the eddies and differ mainly in terms of the meridional position of their climatological jets. The system’s low-frequency evolution is characterized by irregular transitions between the two states.
For a given branch of model solutions, the leading stationary and propagating empirical orthogonal functions are related to eigenmodes of the model’s dynamical operator, linearized about the climatological state on this branch. Nonlinear interactions between these modes are instrumental in determining their relative energy level. In particular, the stationary modes’ self-interaction is shown to vanish. Thus, these modes do not exchange energy with the mean flow and, consequently, dominate the lowest-frequency behavior in the model. The leading stationary mode resembles the observed annular mode in the Southern Hemisphere.
The bimodality is due to nonlinear interactions between nearly equivalent barotropic, stationary, and propagating modes, while the synoptic eddies play a modest role in determining the relative persistence of the two states. The role of synoptic eddies is very substantial only at unrealistically high values of the bottom drag, where they give rise to ultralow frequency variability by modifying the jet in a way that reinforces generation of the eddy field. This type of behavior is related to the presence of a homoclinic orbit in the model’s phase space and is not apparent for more realistic, lower values of the bottom drag.
Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode Variability and the Role of Optimal Nonmodal Growth
Authors: Rashid Harun A. , Simmonds Ian 
Published: June 2005

Abstract
The southern annular mode is the leading mode of Southern Hemisphere circulation variability, the temporal evolution of which is characterized by large amplitudes and significant persistence. Previous investigators have suggested a positive feedback mechanism that explains some of this low-frequency variance. Here, a mechanism is proposed, involving transient nonmodal growths of the anomalies, that is at least as effective as the positive feedback mechanism in increasing the low-frequency variance of the southern annular mode. Using the vector autoregressive modeling technique, a number of linear inverse models of southern annular mode variability from National Centers for Environmental Prediction–Department of Energy (NCEP–DOE) Reanalysis 2 is derived. These models are then analyzed applying the ideas of the generalized stability theory. It is found that, as a consequence of the nonnormality of the system matrices, a significant increase in the low-frequency variance of the southern annular mode occurs through optimal nonmodal growth of the zonal wind anomalies. The nonnormality arises mainly from the relative dominance of the eddy forcing, while the nonmodal growth is caused by the interference of the nonorthogonal eigenvectors of the nonnormal system matrix. These results are demonstrated first in a simple model that retains only the two leading modes of the zonally averaged zonal wind and eddy-forcing variability, and then in a more general model that includes all the important modes. Using the more general model the authors have determined, among other things, the optimal initial perturbation and the time scale over which it experiences the maximum nonmodal growth to evolve into the pattern associated with the southern annular mode.
Reliability of ENSO Dynamical Predictions
Authors: Tang Youmin , Kleeman Richard , Moore Andrew M. 
Published: June 2005

AbstractIn this study, ensemble predictions were constructed using two realistic ENSO prediction models and stochastic optimals. By applying a recently developed theoretical framework, the authors have explored several important issues relating to ENSO predictability including reliability measures of ENSO dynamical predictions and the dominant precursors that control reliability. It was found that prediction utility (R), defined by relative entropy, is a useful measure for the reliability of ENSO dynamical predictions, such that the larger the value of R, the more reliable the prediction. The prediction utility R consists of two components, a dispersion component (DC) associated with the ensemble spread and a signal component (SC) determined by the predictive mean signals. Results show that the prediction utility R is dominated by SC.Using a linear stochastic dynamical system, SC was examined further and found to be intrinsically related to the leading eigenmode amplitude of the initial conditions. This finding was validated by actual model prediction results and is also consistent with other recent work. The relationship between R and SC has particular practical significance for ENSO predictability studies, since it provides an inexpensive and robust method for exploring forecast uncertainties without the need for costly ensemble runs.
A New Double-Moment Microphysics Parameterization for Application in Cloud and Climate Models. Part I: Description
Authors: Morrison H. , Curry J. A. , Khvorostyanov V. I. 
Published: June 2005

Abstract
A new double-moment bulk microphysics scheme predicting the number concentrations and mixing ratios of four hydrometeor species (droplets, cloud ice, rain, snow) is described. New physically based parameterizations are developed for simulating homogeneous and heterogeneous ice nucleation, droplet activation, and the spectral index (width) of the droplet size spectra. Two versions of the scheme are described: one for application in high-resolution cloud models and the other for simulating grid-scale cloudiness in larger-scale models. The versions differ in their treatment of the supersaturation field and droplet nucleation. For the high-resolution approach, droplet nucleation is calculated from Kohler theory applied to a distribution of aerosol that activates at a given supersaturation. The resolved supersaturation field and condensation/deposition rates are predicted using a semianalytic approximation to the three-phase (vapor, ice, liquid) supersaturation equation. For the large-scale version of the scheme, it is assumed that the supersaturation field is not resolved and thus droplet activation is parameterized as a function of the vertical velocity and diabatic cooling rate. The vertical velocity includes a subgrid component that is parameterized in terms of the eddy diffusivity and mixing length. Droplet condensation is calculated using a quasi-steady, saturation adjustment approach. Evaporation/deposition onto the other water species is given by nonsteady vapor diffusion allowing excess vapor density relative to ice saturation.
A New Double-Moment Microphysics Parameterization for Application in Cloud and Climate Models. Part II: Single-Column Modeling of Arctic Clouds
Authors: Morrison H. , Curry J. A. , Shupe M. D. , Zuidema P. 
Published: June 2005

Abstract
The new double-moment microphysics scheme described in Part I of this paper is implemented into a single-column model to simulate clouds and radiation observed during the period 1 April–15 May 1998 of the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic (SHEBA) and First International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) Regional Experiment–Arctic Clouds Experiment (FIRE–ACE) field projects. Mean predicted cloud boundaries and total cloud fraction compare reasonably well with observations. Cloud phase partitioning, which is crucial in determining the surface radiative fluxes, is fairly similar to ground-based retrievals. However, the fraction of time that liquid is present in the column is somewhat underpredicted, leading to small biases in the downwelling shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes at the surface. Results using the new scheme are compared to parallel simulations using other microphysics parameterizations of varying complexity. The predicted liquid water path and cloud phase is significantly improved using the new scheme relative to a single-moment parameterization predicting only the mixing ratio of the water species. Results indicate that a realistic treatment of cloud ice number concentration (prognosing rather than diagnosing) is needed to simulate arctic clouds. Sensitivity tests are also performed by varying the aerosol size, solubility, and number concentration to explore potential cloud–aerosol–radiation interactions in arctic stratus.
On Weak Zonally Symmetric ENSO Atmospheric Heating and the Strong Zonally Symmetric ENSO Air Temperature Response
Authors: Clarke Allan J. , Kim Kwang-Y. 
Published: June 2005

Abstract
Observations show that regions of anomalous deep convective El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) heating tend to be balanced by anomalous ENSO cooling elsewhere so that, averaged around the globe from (say) 10°S to 10°N, the net anomalous heating is nearly zero. The zonally symmetric heating is weak because it is approximately proportional to vertical velocity that, when averaged over a constant pressure surface S around the earth from 10°S to 10°N, is nearly zero. The horizontally averaged vertical velocity over S is small because the net horizontal geostrophic convergent flow across 10°S and 10°N is zero.
Although the zonally symmetric ENSO heating is weak, the observed ENSO tropospheric air temperature anomaly has a large zonally symmetric component. Past work has shown that with weak momentum and thermal damping, Kelvin and Rossby waves can travel around the earth without significant loss of amplitude so that a zonally symmetric response is favored. This physical interpretation depends on knowing temperature and momentum anomaly damping times over the depth of the troposphere. Such times are not well known. Here a Gill tropical atmospheric model is generalized to include realistic surface friction and so theoretically estimate a frictional spindown time. Using this spindown time (approximately 3 weeks), together with an estimate of the Newtonian cooling time (1 month) the authors show, in agreement with observations, that the extremely weak zonally symmetric heating anomaly generates a symmetric air temperature anomaly comparable to the asymmetric one.
Filtering of Parameterized Nonorographic Gravity Waves in the Met Office Unified Model
Authors: Warner Christopher D. , Scaife Adam A. , Butchart Neal 
Published: June 2005

Abstract
This paper investigates the vertical filtering of parameterized gravity wave pseudomomentum flux in the troposphere–stratosphere version of the Met Office Unified Model. Gravity wave forcing is parameterized using the Warner and McIntyre spectral gravity wave parameterization. The same amount of isotropic pseudomomentum flux per unit mass is launched from the planetary boundary layer at each grid point. The parameterization models the azimuthally dependent Doppler shifting and breaking of the gravity wave spectrum as it is filtered by the background atmosphere. The result is an anisotropic distribution of pseudomomentum flux among azimuthal sectors that varies greatly with altitude and location. This gives an idealized global climatology of nonorographic gravity waves. The filtering effect of the atmosphere in this climatology is diagnosed using the “zonal anisotropy.”
Results show areas where observational measurements could be targeted to find the most prominent features in the gravity wave field. Such areas include, for example, the summer stratosphere where zonal anisotropy is very large and where there is a significant localization in latitude and longitude of patches of high zonal anisotropy. Comparisons are also made with recent observational estimates of gravity wave fluxes and test whether wind filtering of a homogeneous, azimuthally isotropic source is enough to reproduce observed features of the gravity wave field.
Cell Broadening Revisited: Results from High-Resolution Large-Eddy Simulations of Cold Air Outbreaks
Authors: Schröter M. , Raasch S. , Jansen H. 
Published: June 2005

Abstract
Large-eddy simulations (LES) have been carried out in order to investigate the structure and development of organized mesoscale cellular convection (MCC) during cold air outbreaks (CAOB) and to reevaluate results by Müller and Chlond. Some limitations of this and other earlier LES studies of CAOBs have been removed by using a parallelized model with both a large horizontal domain and a fine grid resolution. These model simulations reveal a hitherto undiscovered insight into the development of MCC.
It is shown that MCC with aspect ratios larger than 10 only develop in the presence of diabatic heat sources, that is, latent heat release within the clouds and cloud-top radiative cooling, which confirms results from previous studies. Simulated cells are of closed type. The wind field is seen to be correlated with the liquid water field, and thus, dynamic variables are organized on the mesoscale as well. Updrafts predominantly occur in regions with high liquid water content. Two-dimensional spectral analysis confirms clear peaks at the wavelength of the MCC. The dynamic variables are characterized by an organized conglomeration of randomly distributed up- and downdrafts, where each convective cell can hardly be detected by eye. Whereas scalar variables like temperature and the liquid water path field are characterized by large scales with aspect ratios of 9 to 11, in the vertical velocity field multiple scales are present simultaneously, with small scales having aspect ratios between 1 and 3 contributing most to the total energy, but also large scales correlated with scales seen in the thermodynamic variables.
A New Multiscale Model for the Madden–Julian Oscillation
Authors: Biello Joseph A. , Majda Andrew J. 
Published: June 2005

Abstract
A multiscale model of the MJO is developed here that accounts, in a simplified fashion, for both the upscale transfer from synoptic to planetary scales of momentum and temperature from wave trains of thermally driven equatorial synoptic-scale circulations in a moving convective envelope as well as direct mean heating on planetary scales. This model involves idealized thermally driven congestus synoptic-scale fluctuations in the eastern part of the moving wave envelope and convective superclusters in the western part of the envelope. The model self-consistently reproduces qualitatively many of the detailed structural features of the planetary circulation in the observations of the MJO, including the vertical structure in both the westerly onset region and the strong westerly wind burst region, as well as the horizontal quadrupole planetary vortex structure. The westerly midlevel inflow in the strong westerly region and the quadrupole vortex are largely produced in the model by the upscale transport of momentum to the planetary scales, while the midlevel easterly jet in the westerly onset region is substantially strengthened by this process. The role of wave trains of tilted organized synoptic-scale circulations is crucial for this fidelity with observations. The appeal of the multiscale models developed below is their firm mathematical underpinnings, simplicity, and analytic tractability while remaining self-consistent with many of the features of the observational record.
Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Interactions between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and Synoptic-Scale Variability over the Warm Pool
Authors: Batstone Crispian P. , Matthews Adrian J. , Stevens David P. 
Published: June 2005

Abstract
A principal component analysis of the combined fields of sea surface temperature (SST) and surface zonal and meridional wind reveals that the dominant mode of intraseasonal (30 to 70 day) covariability during northern winter in the tropical Eastern Hemisphere is that of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). Regression calculations show that the submonthly (30-day high-pass filtered) surface wind variability is significantly modulated during the MJO. Regions of increased (decreased) submonthly surface wind variability propagate eastward, approximately in phase with the intraseasonal surface westerly (easterly) anomalies of the MJO. Because of the dependence of the surface latent heat flux on the magnitude of the total wind speed, this systematic modulation of the submonthly surface wind variability produces a significant component in the intraseasonal latent heat flux anomalies, which partially cancels the latent heat flux anomalies due to the slowly varying intraseasonal wind anomalies, particularly south of 10°S.
A method is derived that demodulates the submonthly surface wind variability from the slowly varying intraseasonal wind anomalies. This method is applied to the wind forcing fields of a one-dimensional ocean model. The model response to this modified forcing produces larger intraseasonal SST anomalies than when the model is forced with the observed forcing over large areas of the southwest Pacific Ocean and southeast Indian Ocean during both phases of the MJO. This result has implications for accurate coupled modeling of the MJO. A similar calculation is applied to the surface shortwave flux, but intraseasonal modulation of submonthly surface shortwave flux variability does not appear to be important to the dynamics of the MJO.
Variability of Warm-Season Cloud Episodes over East Asia Based on GMS Infrared Brightness Temperature Observations
Authors: Wang Chung-Chieh , Chen George Tai-Jen , Carbone Richard E. 
Published: June 2005

Abstract
The present study has used the Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS) IR brightness temperature observations to investigate the regional and intraseasonal variability of east Asian warm-season cloud/precipitation episodes (in distance–time space) due to land–sea contrast and latitudinal effects. The data period was May–August 1998–2001, and harmonic analysis was employed as the major tool for analysis. The full domain of study (20°–40°N, 95°–145°E) was divided into northern and southern zones, and into eastern and western sectors, and statistics of episodes in each subregion were derived and compared.
For latitudinal effects, episodes were found to be significantly larger in span and duration in northern (30°–40°N) than in southern (20°–30°N) zones. In the northern zone, the propagation characteristics were also stronger and remain evident even in midsummer, while episodes south of 30°N reversed in direction and traveled westward in July and August. For land–sea contrast, the May–August transition over land (western sector, 95°–120°E) was mainly characterized by an increase in diurnal activities, while that over ocean (eastern sector, 120°–145°E) was characterized by decreased overall activities instead. Over the land itself, significant regional variability also existed, with strongest diurnal signals over the eastern Tibetan Plateau near 100°E, and increased diurnal activities over mountain areas in southeastern China since June. Between the two bands, near 107°E, semidiurnal signals were relatively strong and became dominant in June. This double-peaked structure in the diurnal cycle resulted from overlying signals of convection propagating eastward off the plateau with those induced locally in late afternoon, and the phenomenon was more evident in May–June. Over the ocean, on the other hand, both diurnal and semidiurnal waves had small amplitudes, and the regional variability was much weaker. For intraseasonal transition, the number of large episodes was reduced from May through July, as was mean propagation speed. In August, however, some larger events started to reappear over east Asia.
Simulation of ENSO in the New NCEP Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03)
Authors: Wang Wanqiu , Saha Suranjana , Pan Hua-Lu , Nadiga Sudhir , White Glenn 
Published: June 2005

Abstract
A new global coupled atmosphere–ocean forecast system model (CFS03) has recently been developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The new coupled model consists of a T62L64 version of the operational NCEP Atmospheric Global Forecast System model and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Modular Ocean Model version 3, and is expected to replace the current NCEP operational coupled seasonal forecast model. This study assesses the performance of the new coupled model in simulating El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is considered to be a desirable feature for models used for seasonal prediction. The diagnoses indicate that the new coupled model simulates ENSO variability with realistic frequency. The amplitude of the simulated ENSO is similar to that of the observed strong events, but the ENSO events in the simulation occur more regularly than in observations. The model correctly simulates the observed ENSO seasonal phase locking with the peak amplitude near the end of the year. On average, however, simulated warm events tend to start about 3 months earlier and persist longer than observed. The simulated ENSO is consistent with the delayed oscillator, recharge oscillator, and advective–reflective oscillator theories, suggesting that each of these mechanisms may operate at the same time during the ENSO cycle. The diagnoses of the simulation indicate that the model may be suitable for real-time prediction of ENSO.
CD14 C-159T and early infection with Pseudomonas aeruginosa in children with cystic fibrosis
Authors: Martin AC , Laing IA , Zhang G , Brennan S , Winfield K , Sly PD , Stick SM , Goldblatt J , LeSouef PN 
Published: June 2005

AbstractEarly acquisition of Pseudomonas aeruginosa is associated with a poorer prognosis in patients with cystic fibrosis. We investigated whether polymorphisms in CD14, the lipopolysaccharide receptor, increase the risk of early infection. Forty-five children with cystic fibrosis were investigated with annual bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) and plasma sCD14 levels. Plasma sCD14 levels were significantly lower in children from whom P.aeruginosa was subsequently isolated (492.75 μg/ml vs. 1339.43 μg/ml, p = 0.018). Those with the CD14 -159CC genotype had a significantly increased risk of early infection with P.aeruginosa suggesting that CD14 C-159T plays a role in determining the risk of early infection with P.aeruginosa.