The method to predict damage of body areas due to occupational injury among firefighters
Authors: Evdokimov V. I. , Bobrinev E. V. , Kondashov A. A. , Vetoshkin A. A. 
Published: January 2024

Background. Occupational injuries indicate the level of safety at work and are subject to controlled management. Impossible to eliminate entirely, injuries lend to minimization only. Injuries are investigated not only by medical professionals exclusively. At the same time, by knowing the occupational injury dynamics and the types of potential body injuries, we can prospectively assess the required capacities and resources to eliminate the consequences. The objective is to develop a tool to forecast the scale of occupational body injury in firefighters of the Federal Firefighting Service (FFS) of the EMERCOM of Russia.Methods. The paper analyses occupational injury reports for 2012–2021 produced by the FFS of the EMERCOM of Russia. Total 1769 injuries were registered and matched to injury groups contained in chapter XIX of the International Classification of Diseases and Behavioral Disorders (ICD-10). Personnel injury risks for different body parts are identified and calculated with adjustments for non-identified (absence of diagnoses in injury records) and poorly identified injuries (generalized diagnoses are given). The body injury risk level among the personnel was (11.96 ± 0.89) ∙ 10–4 injuries/(individual ∙ year), which was greater than the level of injuries – (9.19 ± 0.54) ∙ 10–4, since each case of injury correlated with an average of 1.3 diagnoses, with 1.4 in firefighters, including those involved in elimination of other emergency consequences, conducive of concomitant and combined injuries. The curves show high, positive and statistically significant congruence (r = 0.686; p < 0.05), suggesting the impact of identical (unidirectional) factors as an underlying cause. External impacts include mechanical injuries amounting to 83.6 %, burns – 11.6 %, heat syncope – 1.5 %, poisoning by combustion products – 3.3 %. The average age of the injured FFS personnel of the EMERCOM of Russia was (36.2 ± 0.3) years, including (10.2 ± 0.3) years of work experience, with the overall FFS forces standing at (191.3 ± 3.3) thousand people. Results and discussion. The predicted number of occupational injuries among the FFS personnel of the EMERCOM of Russia was calculated using the discriminant formula: y = (2.49 z1 + 0.21 z2 + 0.91 z3 + 0.68 z4 + 0.72 z5 + 0.71 z6 + 0.88 z7 + + 0.43 z8 + 1.87 z9 + 1.11 z10 + 1.11 z11)∙10–4 × (2.54∙10–4 t2 – 2.98∙10–2∙t + 1.72) × (–2.94∙10–4∙s2 – 1.76∙10–2 ∙ s + 1.24), where y is the number of occupational injuries of the FFS of the EMERCOM of Russia; x is the number of personnel (absolute); t is the average age, years; s is the average professional experience, years; z1–z11 is the predicted number of body damages (contained in chapter XIX of the ICD-10) derived by multiplying the corresponding coefficient by the number of firefighters per 10 thousand people (10–4): z1 is head (S00–S09), z2 is neck (S10–S19), z3 is chest (S20–S29), z4 is abdomen, lower back, lumbar spine and pelvis (S30–S39), z5 is shoulder girdle and shoulder (S40–S49), z6 is elbow and forearm (S50–S59), z7 is wrists and carpus (S60–S69), z8 is hip and thigh areas (S70–S79), z9 is knee and lower leg (S80–S89), z10 is ankle and feet (S90–S99), z11 is other external impacts, i.e. thermal and chemical burns (T20–T32), combustion by-product poisoning (T58–T59), heat syncope (T67.1). Linear discriminant formulas are provided to calculate body lesions split by categories of personnel (operational, preventive, technical and managerial personnel).Conclusions. The method allows to predict the total number of occupational injuries among firefighters, including injuries of certain body areas and thereby calculate the resources and efforts required for treatment and rehabilitation.