bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Crisis and Learning: A Conceptual Balance Sheet
Authors: Stern Eric 
Published: March 2003

Can governments learn? The title of an influential monograph by a leading political psychologist (Etheredge, 1985) posed this seemingly simplistic question. At first glance, the obvious answer to such a blunt question would appear to be ‘of course’. Governments (and government agencies) persist in spite of, or in some cases because of, dynamic and often hostile political environments. This would seem to indicate that a significant degree of learning is taking place. Yet many scholars, including Etheredge 1985 himself, are markedly skeptical about the learning capacity of policy‐makers and governmental organizations and argue that governments learn poorly or slowly at best (Sabatier, 1987; Lebovic, 1995: 835). How can this be? Is this apparent paradox an artefact of the ways in which scholars define and operationalize the concept of learning?Part one of the article will present a brief and selective survey of the diverse inter‐disciplinary literature on policy and political learning. This preliminary conceptual analysis identifies several difficult issues. Among the most serious is the ontological question (who or what learns?) and the problem of distinguishing learning from other types of political change, which raises thorny normative and methodological questions.The second part of the article brings the concept of crisis into the learning equation. It has been hypothesized by a number of scholars (George, 1980; Goldmann, 1988; Young, 1989; Olsen, 1992) that conditions associated with policy crises, and their aftermath, may facilitate learning and change and contribute to overcoming the governmental inertia and political dynamics which often inhibit learning under ‘normal’ conditions. For example, it is argued that the experience of crises may contribute to a posture of cognitive openness conducive to individual and collective learning. Crisis experiences tend to re‐order the political agenda, stimulate an appetite for change and reform on the part of the electorate and the mass media and, thus, create moments of political possibility, ‘policy windows’ (Kingdon, 1984), which create opportunities for agile reformers before they close. A ‘balance‐sheet’ approach is used in order to examine the plausibility of the crisis‐learning hypothesis. This entails posing twin questions. First, what are the characteristics of crisis situations (or political systems which have experienced crises) likely to promote governmental learning? Secondly, what are the characteristics of crisis situations (or political systems which have experienced crises) likely to create obstacles to learning?Some preliminary thoughts on how to go about conducting empirical research in this area, and some reflections upon the results of the conceptual analysis, are presented in the last two sections of the article.
Contingencies and Communications in Cyberspace: The World Wide Web and Non‐Hierarchical Co‐ordination
Authors: La Porte Todd M. 
Published: March 2003

The widespread public deployment of the World Wide Web may initiate substantial changes in the organizations tasked to deal with crises, contingencies and disasters, particularly in the systems responsible for communications and coordination. A number of properties of the Web make it an attractive addition to the communications systems in place today. These include the Web's potential for speed, interactivity, hyper‐textuality and character as both a broadcast, as well as a more restricted, communications vehicle.When viewed in light of recent work on organizational complexity, the Web seems to be an appropriate technical infrastructure for communications and organizational design and may have some useful properties in making such organizations better equipped to deal with emergencies or other unexpected events. Whether the Web is purposefully integrated into communications and coordination systems or not, it is likely to be relied on increasingly as an informal and adaptable system used by community members and by a broad array of public and private organizations. Emergency preparedness and emergency response organizations may wish to understand more about how key communication and coordination tasks can be achieved by using the Web.
An Institutional Framework for Japanese Crisis Management
Authors: Furukawa Shun’ichi 
Published: March 2003

This paper discusses an institutional framework and inter‐governmental relationships pertaining to crisis management in Japan. While the current law shifts most responsibility to local governments, the compartmentalized and fragmented nature of the central government and a lack of viable organization therein to oversee crisis management, hinder decisive and responsive action. Crisis management is inherently local in nature and numerous examples from the local level highlight this nature of crisis management.Three features of crisis management are identified: the decentralized nature of centralized government and centralized leadership in local government, fused inter‐governmental relationship and lack of political authority.
Complex Systems in Crisis: Anticipation and Resilience in Dynamic Environments
Authors: Comfort Louise K. , Sungu Yesim , Johnson David , Dunn Mark 
Published: March 2003

Confronted with increasing risk and uncertainty from disruptive change, public managers seek methods to strengthen the capacity of their interdependent organizations to anticipate risk and demonstrate resilience in response to threat. The problem intensifies for public organizations that interact with private and nonprofit organizations to protect a community at risk from natural or technological disasters. It reflects the constraints placed upon human decision processes in complex environments by limited cognitive capacity, and illustrates the persistent difficulty in achieving coordination among multiple organizations with different responsibilities in different locations in serving the public interest.This article summarizes current research on the design and development of an interactive, intelligent, spatial information system (IISIS) for decision support in the mitigation of, and response to, risk from hazardous materials for a university community. Appropriate uses of the IISIS prototype are expected to increase both the technical and organizational capacity to manage timely, accurate information exchange within and among organizations, thus increasing coordination in action.
Annotation: The use of psychotropic medications in children: a British view
Authors: Bramble David 
Published: March 2003

Background: Prescribing practices relating to the use of psychotropic medication with mentally disordered children have changed significantly in Britain over recent years.Methods: I conducted a review of the modest body of empirical data available relating to the prescribing practices of child psychiatrists, paediatricians and general practitioners (primary care physicians). The data were obtained primarily from postal questionnaire studies but also from British drug studies and a government‐sponsored evaluation of the efficacy of stimulant medication. Postgraduate training guidelines for the three principal clinical disciplines are also discussed.Results: Systematic evaluation of prescribing practices has a relatively short history. All the studies reviewed demonstrated consistent methodological weaknesses, the most important of which was reliance upon retrospective reports of prescribing practices from clinicians with no analysis of actual prescription data. No studies relating to the general use of psychotropic medication by paediatricians were found. Child psychiatrists and general practitioners appear to be using a range of drugs for a range of conditions; however, there was evidence of intra‐ and interdisciplinary variations in practice. It was also evident from the general practitioner data that drug treatments were frequently used for conditions best managed with behavioural methods (e.g., common sleep problems and enuresis). Government prescription data relating to methylphenidate use in ADHD reveal a dramatic rise over the past ten years. Currently, most child psychiatrists use this treatment compared to approximately half the profession only seven years ago. The use of newer antipsychotic agents as well as the SSRI antidepressants appears to be growing in child psychiatric practice. A majority of clinicians surveyed believed that medication was an important treatment modality but also felt that they were relatively unskilled in the field and requested further training.Conclusions: Overall, a picture of both a growing and better informed use of psychotropic medication is emerging in Britain despite shortcomings in postgraduate training. Future research needs to evaluate prescribing practice in a more objective manner in order to improve training and also service developments in the field.
Practitioner Review: Outcomes for parents and children following non‐traditional conception: what do clinicians need to know?
Authors: Golombok Susan , MacCallum Fiona 
Published: March 2003

Background: The birth of the first ‘test‐tube’ baby in 1978 has led to the creation of family types that would not otherwise have existed.Methods: This paper examines research on the psychological outcomes for parents and children in assisted reproduction families with particular attention to the issues and concerns that have been raised by creating families in this way.Results: Parents of children conceived by assisted reproduction appear to have good relationships with their children, even in families where one parent lacks a genetic link with the child. With respect to the children themselves, there is no evidence of cognitive impairment in singleton children born at full term as a result of assisted reproduction procedures, although the findings regarding the cognitive development of intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) children are currently unclear. In relation to socioemotional development, assisted reproduction children appear to be functioning well.Conclusions: Few studies have included children at adolescence or beyond, and little is known about the consequences of conception by assisted reproduction from the perspective of the individuals concerned. In addition, there are some types of assisted reproduction family, such as families created through a surrogacy arrangement or through embryo donation, about whom little is known at all. Although existing knowledge about the impact of assisted reproduction for parenting and child development does not give undue cause for concern, there remain a number of unanswered questions in relation to children born in this way.
A growth curve analysis of parent training outcomes: examining the influence of child risk factors (inattention, impulsivity, and hyperactivity problems), parental and family risk factors
Authors: Hartman Renée R. , Stage Scott A. , Webster‐Stratton Carolyn 
Published: March 2003

Background: Parent training is one of the most effective treatments for young children with conduct problems. However, not every family benefits from this approach and approximately one‐third of children remain in the clinical range at follow‐up assessments. Little is known about factors affecting treatment outcome for young children.Method: Hierarchical linear modeling methods were used to examine the effects of child attentional risk factors (inattention, impulsivity and hyperactivity problems), parental and familial risk factors upon the efficacy of a parent training program to decrease boys’ conduct problems. Mothers of 81 boys, four to seven years of age, exhibiting conduct problems attended a parent training program (The Incredible Years) which lasted 22 to 24 weeks. Treatment effectiveness was assessed at one month and one year post treatment by means of independent home observations, parent and teacher reports.Results: Results indicated significant decreases in observations of mothers’ negative parenting interactions with their children and decreases in their conduct problems according to mother reports and independent observations at home. Boys with elevated ratings of attentional problems in addition to conduct problems showed similar benefits from the parent training program as the boys who did not have attentional problems.Conclusion: This study suggests that parent training is equally effective for boys with both conduct problems and attentional problems as it is for boys with conduct problems without these attentional problems. In fact, boys rated in the Borderline or Clinical range for attentional problems evidenced a greater decrease in externalizing behavior problems as rated by their mothers. Surprisingly, the predictor variables of depression, stress, and socioeconomic status were not significant contributors at either initial status or growth over time whether outcomes were measured by child conduct problems or parenting interactions.
Fifteen, female and stressed: changing patterns of psychological distress over time
Authors: West Patrick , Sweeting Helen 
Published: March 2003

Background: Despite a widespread view that the mental health of young people has deteriorated, the evidence base is limited by the lack of comparable datasets over time, and their capacity to test specific hypotheses about the causes of such change, in this case those particularly affecting young females.Method: Two cohorts of 15‐year‐olds in the West of Scotland, surveyed in 1987 and 1999, were compared, using the 12‐item version of the General Health Questionnaire to measure psychological distress (GHQ caseness, cut‐off 2/3), together with items and indices of personal and performance worries.Results: Between 1987 and 1999, GHQ caseness increased significantly for females (from 19% to 33%), but not males (13% to 15%), a change particularly experienced by females from non‐manual and skilled manual backgrounds. With one notable exception (unemployment), most worries also increased for both sexes, a gender gap emerging in respect of worries about school performance, females worrying more. While the effect of personal worries (e.g., looks and weight) on GHQ caseness persisted over time in both sexes, that of performance worries only emerged for females in 1999. Using survey date as an indicator, a relationship between proximity to exams and GHQ caseness was also only found among females in 1999.Conclusion: The increase in levels of psychological distress among young females over this period may be explained by an increase in educational expectations, which together with more traditional concerns about personal identity, appear to have elevated levels of stress, with adverse consequences for mental health.
Reliability of the ICD‐10 classification of adverse familial and environmental factors
Authors: Willemse Godelief R.W.M. , Van Yperen Tom A. , Rispens Jan 
Published: March 2003

Background: The tenth revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD‐10) contains a number of categories and guidelines for coding different types of adverse familial and environmental situations. These categories have been selected on the basis of empirical evidence that the adverse situations might represent important psychiatric risk factors. Prior studies, using written case vignettes or video‐ or audiotaped semi‐structured interviews, showed that the interrater reliability of these classifications is satisfactory.Method: We have tested the interrater reliability of the categories in a multicentre study by using an ‘in vivo’ design. Classifications were performed in day‐to‐day practice, using information that is normally available. Three hundred children from 0 to 13 years were involved in the study. These cases had been admitted to various institutes for children with psychiatric disorders, developmental delays and/or adverse psychosocial circumstances. Two clinicians and a student classified the psychosocial situation of each child. In total, 51 clinicians and 6 undergraduate students were involved in the study.Results: It was found that, with the exception of more or less objective categories, the reliability is not satisfactory. Post hoc analyses showed that the insufficient reliability is only partly due to confounding factors: no clear indications were found for information variance, but observation variance may have played a part. Having additional information from two family questionnaires hardly contributes to a better reliability.Conclusions: The reliability of the psychosocial axis of the ICD‐10 is not satisfactory if tested in day‐to‐day practice. In comparing this result with other reliability studies, it seems that the absence of adequate information to code the psychosocial axis may be a fundamental problem in obtaining sufficient interrater agreement. Apparently, the classification of this axis requires information that is often not available in common practice.
Modulation of spinal reflexes by aversive and sexually appetitive stimuli
Authors: Both Stephanie , Everaerd Walter , Laan Ellen 
Published: March 2003

AbstractIn this study, modulation of spinal tendinous (T) reflexes by sexual stimulation was investigated. T reflexes are augmented in states of appetitive and defensive action and modified by differences in arousal intensity. Reflexes were expected to be facilitated by both pleasant (sexual) and unpleasant (anxiety) stimuli. Subjects were exposed to a sexual, an anxiety‐inducing, a sexually threatening, and a neutral film excerpt. Genital arousal, emotional experience, subjective action tendencies, and T reflexes were monitored. Self‐report and genital data confirmed the affective states as intended. T reflex amplitude significantly increased during viewing of emotionally arousing film excerpts as compared with a neutral film excerpt. T reflexes were facilitated by the sex stimulus to the same extent as by the anxiety and sexual threat stimuli. The results support the view of sexual arousal as an emotional state, generating sex‐specific autonomic and general somatic motor system responses, which prepare the organism for action.
Dividend Omissions and Intraindustry Information Transfers
Authors: Caton Gary L. , Goh Jeremy , Kohers Ninon 
Published: March 2003

AbstractWe examine potential information transfers from companies that announce dividend omissions to their industry rivals. Specifically, we examine the abnormal stock returns and abnormal earnings forecast revisions of rivals after a company makes a dividend‐omission announcement. Our results show negative and significant abnormal stock returns and negative and significant abnormal forecast revisions for rival companies in response to the announcement, and a significant and positive relation between the two. We conclude that a dividend‐omission announcement transmits unfavorable information across the announcing company's industry that affects cash flow expectations and ultimately stock prices.
Merger Announcements and Trading
Authors: Ascioglu N. Asli , McInish Thomas H. , Wood Robert A. 
Published: March 2003

AbstractWe test whether an increase either in informed trades or in large liquidity trades leads to greater correlation of trading volume across markets. We confirm that both trading volume and positive returns of target companies are abnormally high before merger announcements. We find a statistically significant increase in the correlation between New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq/regional trading volume before merger announcements. Furthermore, after merger announcements, we find evidence of both large liquidity trading and a statistically significant increase in the correlation of trading volume across markets.
The Atatürk Dam project in south‐east Turkey: Changes in objectives and planning over time
Authors: Brismar Anna 
Published: March 2003

The Atatürk Dam was constructed on the Euphrates River in Turkey in the 1980s as the central component of a large‐scale regional development project for the South‐eastern Anatolia region, known as GAP. Since the first development plan for the region was presented in 1970, the objectives for regional development have changed significantly.This article aims to analyze how the functions, design, and capacities of the Atatürk Dam project have been modified since 1970, paralleling changes in the regional development objectives and ambitions, and to identify accomplishments and constraints in the realization of the dam project.Since 1970, ambitions to develop the region have grown significantly, resulting in major changes to the original project plans. The most important change occurred in 1978, when the design for the Middle Karababa Dam, recommended in 1970, was abandoned and the Atatürk Dam design was adopted. This change considerably increased the storage and power generation capacities of the dam. Yet, the sparse rainfall throughout the catchment in recent years has hampered full utilization of the dam’s storage and generation capacities and increased the need for tradeoffs between conflicting demands for water use.
Detection of Automobile Insurance Fraud With Discrete Choice Models and Misclassified Claims
Authors: Artís Manuel , Ayuso Mercedes , Guillén Montserrat 
Published: March 2003

AbstractThe insurance industry is concerned with the detection of fraudulent behavior. The number of automobile claims involving some kind of suspicious circumstance is high and has become a subject of major interest for companies. This article demonstrates the performance of binary choice models for fraud detection and implements models for misclassification in the response variable. A database from the Spanish insurance market that contains honest and fraudulent claims is used. The estimation of the probability of omission provides an estimate of the percentage of fraudulent claims that are not detected by the logistic regression model.
Fraud Classification Using Principal Component Analysis of RIDITs
Authors: Brockett Patrick L. , Derrig Richard A. , Golden Linda L. , Levine Arnold , Alpert Mark 
Published: March 2003

AbstractThis article introduces to the statistical and insurance literature a mathematical technique for an a priori classification of objects when no training sample exists for which the exact correct group membership is known. The article also provides an example of the empirical application of the methodology to fraud detection for bodily injury claims in automobile insurance. With this technique, principal component analysis of RIDIT scores (PRIDIT), an insurance fraud detector can reduce uncertainty and increase the chances of targeting the appropriate claims so that an organization will be more likely to allocate investigative resources efficiently to uncover insurance fraud. In addition, other (exogenous) empirical models can be validated relative to the PRIDIT‐derived weights for optimal ranking of fraud/nonfraud claims and/or profiling. The technique at once gives measures of the individual fraud indicator variables’ worth and a measure of individual claim file suspicion level for the entire claim file that can be used to cogently direct further fraud investigation resources. Moreover, the technique does so at a lower cost than utilizing human insurance investigators, or insurance adjusters, but with similar outcomes. More generally, this technique is applicable to other commonly encountered managerial settings in which a large number of assignment decisions are made subjectively based on ‘‘clues,‘’ which may change dramatically over time. This article explores the application of these techniques to injury insurance claims for automobile bodily injury in detail.