bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Analysing Competing Risks Data With Transformation Models
Authors: Fine J. P. 
Published: March 2003

Summary
We present a flexible class of marginal models for the cumulative incidence function. The semiparametric transformation model is utilized in a decomposition for the marginal failure probabilities which extends previous work on Farewell's cure model. Novel estimation, inference and prediction procedures are developed, with large sample properties derived from the theory of martingales and U-statistics. A small simulation study demonstrates that the methods are appropriate for practical use. The methods are illustrated with a thorough analysis of a prostate cancer clinical trial. Simple graphical displays are used to check for the goodness of fit.
On the Construction of Bayes–Confidence Regions
Authors: Sweeting Trevor J. 
Published: March 2003

Summary
We obtain approximate Bayes–confidence intervals for a scalar parameter based on directed likelihood. The posterior probabilities of these intervals agree with their unconditional coverage probabilities to fourth order, and with their conditional coverage probabilities to third order. These intervals are constructed for arbitrary smooth prior distributions. A key feature of the construction is that log-likelihood derivatives beyond second order are not required, unlike the asymptotic expansions of Severini.
Covariance Structure of Wavelet Coefficients: Theory and Models in a Bayesian Perspective
Authors: Vannucci Marina , Corradi Fabio 
Published: March 2003

Summary
We present theoretical results on the random wavelet coefficients covariance structure. We use simple properties of the coefficients to derive a recursive way to compute the within- and across-scale covariances. We point out a useful link between the algorithm proposed and the two-dimensional discrete wavelet transform. We then focus on Bayesian wavelet shrinkage for estimating a function from noisy data. A prior distribution is imposed on the coefficients of the unknown function. We show how our findings on the covariance structure make it possible to specify priors that take into account the full correlation between coefficients through a parsimonious number of hyperparameters. We use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate the parameters and illustrate our method on bench-mark simulated signals.
Distance Sampling Methodology
Authors: Barry Simon C. , Welsh A. H. 
Published: March 2003

Summary
We consider the method of distance sampling described by Buckland, Anderson, Burnham and Laake in 1993. We explore the properties of the methodology in simple cases chosen to allow direct and accessible comparisons of distance sampling in the design- and model-based frameworks. In particular, we obtain expressions for the bias and variance of the distance sampling estimator of object density and for the expected value of the recommended analytic variance estimator within each framework. These results enable us to clarify aspects of the performance of the methodology which may be of interest to users and potential users of distance sampling.
Fitting Curves to Human Respiratory Data
Authors: Jacob G. , Marriott F. H. C. , Robbins P. A. 
Published: March 2003

SUMMARY
Records of gas flow during breathing are cyclical, with the cycles varying in duration. The shape of these cycles may change with the intensity of respiratory stimulation or the development of respiratory disease, but currently research is hampered by the lack of a fully satisfactory technique for determining the shape of a typical cycle. The approach adopted here is to replace the time series by a ‘phase diagram’, plotting the time integral of flow against flow itself. Principal curves are then fitted. These are curves ‘through the middle of the data’ which were introduced by Hastie and Stuetzle. The shapes of these curves are compared, either directly or after reconstructing an average cycle corresponding to each fitted curve. This has the advantage that the shape of the waveform is separated from the amplitude, and from the duration of the breath. A disadvantage is that periods of zero flow are lost, and the reconstructed average cycle may show irregularities at points near zero flow as a result. In practice, the methodology showed clear differences in shape between the protocols, gave reasonable average cycles and ordered the waveform shapes according to the hardness of breathing induced by the protocols.
Detecting Overdispersion in Large Scale Surveys: Application to a Study of Education and Social Class in Britain (with Comments)
Authors: Fitzmaurice Garrett M. , Heath Anthony F. , Cox D. R. 
Published: March 2003

SUMMARY
A practical problem with large scale survey data is the potential for overdispersion. Overdispersion occurs when the data display more variability than is predicted by the variance–mean relationship for the assumed sampling model. This paper describes a simple strategy for detecting and adjusting for overdispersion in large scale survey data. The method is primarily motivated by data on the relationship between social class and educational attainment obtained from a 2% sample from the 1991 census of the population of Great Britain. Overdispersion can be detected by first grouping the data into a number of strata of approximately equal size. Under the assumption that the observations are independent and there is no variability in the parameter of interest, there is a direct relationship between the nominal standard errors and the empirical or sample standard deviation of the parameter estimates obtained from each of the separate strata. With the 2% sample from the British census data, quite a discernible departure from this relationship was found, indicating overdispersion. After allowing for overdispersion, improved and more realistic measures of precision of the strength of the social class–education associations were obtained.
Mixed Inverse Problems Arising in the Estimation of Calibration Factors in Positron Emission Tomography
Authors: Pawitan Y. 
Published: March 2003

SUMMARY
A penalized likelihood approach to the estimation of calibration factors in positron emission tomography (PET) is considered, in particular the problem of estimating the efficiency of PET detectors. Varying efficiencies among the detectors create a non-uniform performance and failure to account for the non-uniformities would lead to streaks in the image, so efficient estimation of the non-uniformities is desirable to reduce the propagation of noise to the final image. The relevant data set is provided by a blank scan, where a model may be derived that depends only on the sources affecting non-uniformities: inherent variation among the detector crystals and geometric effects. Physical considerations suggest a novel mixed inverse model with random crystal effects and smooth geometric effects. Using appropriate penalty terms, the penalized maximum likelihood estimates are derived and an efficient computational algorithm utilizing the fast Fourier transform is developed. Data-driven shrinkage and smoothing parameters are chosen to minimize an estimate of the predictive loss function. Various examples indicate that the approach proposed works well computationally and compares well with the standard method.
Regression Modelling of Weighted κ by Using Generalized Estimating Equations
Authors: Gonin René , Lipsitz Stuart R. , Fitzmaurice Garett M. , Molenberghs Geert 
Published: March 2003

SUMMARY
In many clinical studies more than one observer may be rating a characteristic measured on an ordinal scale. For example, a study may involve a group of physicians rating a feature seen on a pathology specimen or a computer tomography scan. In clinical studies of this kind, the weighted κ coefficient is a popular measure of agreement for ordinally scaled ratings. Our research stems from a study in which the severity of inflammatory skin disease was rated. The investigators wished to determine and evaluate the strength of agreement between a variable number of observers taking into account patient-specific (age and gender) as well as rater-specific (whether board certified in dermatology) characteristics. This suggested modelling κ as a function of these covariates. We propose the use of generalized estimating equations to estimate the weighted κ coefficient. This approach also accommodates unbalanced data which arise when some subjects are not judged by the same set of observers. Currently an estimate of overall κ for a simple unbalanced data set without covariates involving more than two observers is unavailable. In the inflammatory skin disease study none of the covariates were significantly associated with κ, thus enabling the calculation of an overall weighted κ for this unbalanced data set. In the second motivating example (multiple sclerosis), geographic location was significantly associated with κ. In addition we also compared the results of our method with current methods of testing for heterogeneity of weighted κ coefficients across strata (geographic location) that are available for balanced data sets.
Models for Papilloma Multiplicity and Regression: Applications to Transgenic Mouse Studies
Authors: Dunson D. B. 
Published: March 2003

SUMMARY
In cancer studies that use transgenic or knockout mice, skin tumour counts are recorded over time to measure tumorigenicity. In these studies cancer biologists are interested in the effect of endogenous and/or exogenous factors on papilloma onset, multiplicity and regression. In this paper an analysis of data from a study conducted by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences on the effect of genetic factors on skin tumorigenesis is presented. Papilloma multiplicity and regression are modelled by using Bernoulli, Poisson and binomial latent variables, each of which can depend on covariates and previous outcomes. An EM algorithm is proposed for parameter estimation, and generalized estimating equations adjust for extra dependence between outcomes within individual animals. A Cox proportional hazards model is used to describe covariate effects on the onset of tumours.
Matched Case–Control Data Analyses with Missing Covariates
Authors: Paik Myunghee Cho , Sacco Ralph L. 
Published: March 2003

SUMMARY
We consider methods for analysing matched case–control data when some covariates (W) are completely observed but other covariates (X) are missing for some subjects. In matched case–control studies, the complete-record analysis discards completely observed subjects if none of their matching cases or controls are completely observed. We investigate an imputation estimate obtained by solving a joint estimating equation for log-odds ratios of disease and parameters in an imputation model. Imputation estimates for coefficients of W are shown to have smaller bias and mean-square error than do estimates from the complete-record analysis.
Bayesian Models for Relative Archaeological Chronology Building
Authors: Buck Caitlin E. , Sahu Sujit K. 
Published: March 2003

SUMMARY
For many years, archaeologists have postulated that the numbers of various artefact types found within excavated features should give insight about their relative dates of deposition even when stratigraphic information is not present. A typical data set used in such studies can be reported as a cross-classification table (often called an abundance matrix or, equivalently, a contingency table) of excavated features against artefact types. Each entry of the table represents the number of a particular artefact type found in a particular archaeological feature. Methodologies for attempting to identify temporal sequences on the basis of such data are commonly referred to as seriation techniques. Several different procedures for seriation including both parametric and non-parametric statistics have been used in an attempt to reconstruct relative chronological orders on the basis of such contingency tables. We develop some possible model-based approaches that might be used to aid in relative, archaeological chronology building. We use the recently developed Markov chain Monte Carlo method based on Langevin diffusions to fit some of the models proposed. Predictive Bayesian model choice techniques are then employed to ascertain which of the models that we develop are most plausible. We analyse two data sets taken from the literature on archaeological seriation.
Oil product consumption in OPEC Member Countries: a comparison of trends and structures
Authors: Dahmani Atmane 
Published: March 2003

The purpose of the present work is to analyse oil product consumption trends within OPEC's 11 Member Countries and to compare the consumption structures within and between the countries. The study examines consumption structures by product (gasoline, kerosene, distillates, residuals and others) and the most relevant indicators of economic growth during the period 1980–98.The analysis shows that, during this period, most countries increased their consumption of gasoline, kerosene and distillates, which are light and medium products. However, the consumption of heavy products, such as residuals, was diversified within the considered countries.The structural change analysis, which relates to the similarities in the oil product consumption structures of Member Countries, was carried out by using sub‐groups for the periods in which consumption structures are similar. This grouping seems to be the result of the influence of important factors on oil consumption, mainly oil product domestic prices, refinery capacity and configuration, the demographic factor and social unrest.Further steps in the study refer to some practical aspects regarding observed homogeneity in the grouping of oil consumption patterns.
Creativity, Action, Service (CAS) Activities as Part of the International Baccalaureate Diploma Programme: A Case Study
Authors: Kulundu Florence , Hayden Mary 
Published: March 2003

The new subject of citizenship requires that students undertake community service. This is something which is also being emphasized in other countries. The International Baccalaureate has pioneered such work for thirty years. It includes a compulsory element of community service ‘Creativity, Action, Service’ (CAS) involving about half a day per week for two years. Though many students are likely to find this motivating the very fact that it is compulsory means that this may not always be the case.In general, the benefits of community service to what might be termed the ‘recipient’ are self‐evident. Within the context of educational programmes, however, the relationship between encouraging service for reasons related to the greater good of the community, and for reasons related to the associated benefits to the individual student, is a delicate one. This paper describes a study undertaken in an international school. The study was initiated with the major purpose of determining the extent to which the school had been successful in developing the CAS programme. In particular, the study aimed to establish to what extent CAS participants achieved the programme’s prescribed aims, to highlight any aims not fully achieved and, through reflecting on why this might be the case, to identify how improvements could be made. As a result of the findings it was possible to make a number of recommendations for improvements, with implications for such work both in the school and at a more general level.
Crime in a Convict Republic
Authors: Braithwaite John 
Published: March 2003

‘It is much easier to extirpate than to amend Mankind.’Sir William BlackstoneFive stages in the history of regulation are derived from the literature as a starting framework for this essay. These stages are outlined in the first section. This five‐stage model is then confronted and revised in light of the neglected case of the Australian penal colony. It is juxtaposed throughout the paper with the history of the regulation of crime in the US. Australian convict society is found to be brutal yet forgiving. We conclude that surprisingly high levels of procedural justice and reintegration in Australian convict society drive down crime rates at a remarkable rate in the nineteenth century. In contrast American slave society is characterised by procedural injustice, exclusion and stigmatisation, which delivers high crime rates. Following Heimer and Staffen's theory, reintegration and procedural fairness are found to arise in conditions where the powerful are dependent on the deviant. Acute labour shortage is the basis of a reintegrative assignment system for Australian convicts to work in the free community. While convicts change Australia in very Australian ways, we find that many of these developments are not uniquely Australian and so a revision of the five‐phase model is proposed. The revision also implies that Foucault's distinction between governing the body versus governing the soul (corporal/capital punishment versus the penitentiary) is less central than exclusion versus inclusion (banishment versus restorative justice) to understanding all stages of the history of regulation.
Princess Mary's Itinerary in the Marches of Wales 1525–1527: a Provisional Record
Authors: Robinson W. R. B 
Published: March 2003

Abstract
The State Papers and the Journal of Prior More of Worcester are the main sources for a detailed, though incomplete, record of the itinerary of Princess Mary in the Marches of Wales, 1525–7. Revised dates are proposed for several documents calendared in Letters and Papers … of Henry VIII which the princess's biographers have misinterpreted, including some relating to the appointment of her council and household. References to the itinerary of the princess's council are also noted. After returning to court early in 1527, the princess did not return to the Marches, probably because her prominent role there was no longer compatible with the king's intentions concerning the succession.
The Brockworth Poll Tax Return, 1377
Authors: Saul Nigel 
Published: March 2003

Abstract
Among the muniments of Westminster Abbey is a hitherto unpublished poll tax return of 1377 from the manor of Brockworth (Glos.), which belonged to Llanthony Priory. The return is of singular interest in recording details of the names and destinations of emigrants from the village in the months before the levying of the tax. A high level of migration is revealed. Generally, the migrants went to local villages and towns. A significant minority, however, left for destinations further afield, chiefly in the Severn valley and Welsh Marches. The evidence of the return is a powerful reminder of the importance of migration as a regulatory mechanism in the English rural economy.
Edmund Gibson's Editions of Britannia: Dynastic Chorography and the Particularist Politics of Precedent, 1695–1722
Authors: Mayhew Robert 
Published: March 2003

Abstract
Geographical writing has been linked with political discourse as ‘advice literature’ since the time of Strabo. In the early modern period, geography and related forms of spatial enquiry preserved this role. This article examines the political positioning of William Camden's massively influential chorographical work, Britannia, as updated by a team of scholars led by Edmund Gibson in 1695 and 1722. The 1695 edition is shown to have espoused loyalty to the Anglican church and the Williamite succession through its depiction of Camden and its treatment of the events of the Civil War. This political positioning is shown to have provoked criticism from Francis Atterbury as a minor theme in the convocation controversy. Finally, the second, 1722 edition of Britannia is shown to have shifted to a more blatant Hanoverian loyalism as Gibson and his colleagues grew more fearful of the Jacobites.
When the Euro Falls Apart
Authors: Scott Hal S. 
Published: March 2003

This paper recounts some well‐known problems confronting European monetary union (EMU), such as withstanding asymmetric shocks and maintaining domestic political support. It then examines how a speculative attack could damage a target country's banking system, and how the basic structure of EMU could facilitate its break‐up. On the basis of this analysis, one might reasonably conclude that there is a significant chance – over one in ten – that EMU may break up in whole or in part.The paper then focuses primarily on two significant problems related to a break‐up. First, a country seeking to leave EMU, particularly after the transition period, may have difficulty re‐establishing its national currency unilaterally, as its economy is likely to have become thoroughly ‘euroized’. Second, any break‐up accompanied by re‐denomination of existing euro obligations, including government bonds, will create great legal uncertainty and costly litigation. There are no continuity of contract rules for exiting EMU equivalent to those for entering. Both problems require cooperative and deliberative solutions and will be difficult and costly to solve. If such problems are properly taken into account, which has not previously been the case, a euro break‐up in the foreseeable future, particularly after transition, is considerably less likely than the above estimate of one in ten.
Central Bank Independence and Credibility: Is There a Shred of Evidence?
Authors: Forder James 
Published: March 2003

Books reviewed in this article:P. Arestis and M. Sawyer, eds, The Political Economy of Central Banking.A. Blinder, Central Banking in Theory and Practice.The Bundesbank, ed., Fifty Years of the Deutsche Mark.R. Elgie and H. Thompson, The Politics of Central Banks.F. Lippi, Central Bank Independence, Targets and Credibility.
Bargaining with Transnational Corporations: The Case of Shanghai
Authors: Yeung Yue‐Man , Li Xiaojian 
Published: March 2003

This study addresses the power relationship between TNCs and their partners in the host region, a question that critically affects regional development in this globalizing world. Site interviews suggest Shanghai’s special standing in China, providing it with stronger power in bargaining with TNCs than any other region in the country. Shanghai has thus gained tremendous benefits in technology transfer and managerial skill improvement. Company studies further reveal that the bargaining relationship between TNCs and local companies differs according to many factors. The level of ownership is determined by competition between both sides in terms of capital strength, technology level and marketing capability. The level of localization is affected by the previous status of the local partner, the size and development of the domestic market and the capability of the local manager. The change of one region’s bargaining power is also related to the power of other (potential) competition regions. The degree of regional economic imbalance between regions within a country tends to be enlarging in the process of global‐local interaction mediated by TNCs.—Cette étude concerne les relations de pouvoir entre les entreprises transnationales et leurs partenaires dans la région d’accueil, une question qui affecte de façon critique le développement régional dans un monde qui se globalise. Shangaï a une position spéciale en Chine qui lui donne plus de pouvoirs que n’importe quelle autre région du pays pour négocier avec les entreprises transnationales. Shangaï a donc acquis des avantages importants dans le transfert des technologies et dans le perfectionnement des compétences des cadres. Les études de firmes révèlent que les relations dans les négociations entre les entreprises transnationales et les entreprises locales changent selon de nombreux facteurs. Le niveau de propriété est déterminé par la compétition entre les deux parties quant au pouvoir du capital, au niveau technologique et à la capacité de commercialisation. Le changement des pouvoirs de négociation d’une région est aussi lié au pouvoir des autres régions qui pourraient lui faire concurrence. Le niveau de déséquilibre économique régional entre les régions d’un pays tend à s’accentuer dans le processus d’interaction local‐global dont les entreprises transnationales sont le médiateur.