bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Bayesian Predictive Inference for Samples from Smooth Processes
Authors: Zidek J V , Weerahandi S 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
This paper extends a method of the authors to obtain a Bayes linear procedure for predicting the value at a specified time of a future sample path. It is supposed that data are available from a number of sample paths which are deemed to be related to the future sample path. The method is local and relies on a simple linear model which derives from the Taylor expansions of the processes at the point at which the inference is required. It is argued that the resulting Bayes linear predictor is approximately the same as that from any one of a family of complex Bayes linear predictors which obtain under the assumption that the processes possess several derivatives. An illustrative application to growth curve analysis is used to bring out some of the strenghts and weaknesses of the proposed method.
Use of the Student-t Prior for the Estimation of Normal Means: A Computational Approach
Authors: Angers Jean-François 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
Estimation of the mean of a multivariate normal distribution is considered. The components of the mean vector, θ, are assumed to be exchangeable which will be modeled, in a hierarchical fashion, with independent Student-t distributions as the first stage prior. The first stage Bayes estimator will be described in closed form when the Student-I priors have odd numbers of degrees of freedom.
The Influence of Prior and Likelihood Tail Behaviour on the Posterior Distribution
Authors: Gómez-Villegas M A , Maín P 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
The tails of a continuous distribution may be classified as light, medium or heavy, depending on the limit of the hazard rate as x tends to infinity. We consider some likelihood and prior distributions with different right tails, and study the resultant posterior right tail. To this end we relate the concept and properties of regularly varying functions to the notion of tail weight.
Empirical and Hierarchical Bayes Estimation in Multivariate Regression Models
Authors: Merwe A J Van Der , Merwe C A Van Der 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
Consider the linear multivariate regression model Y = X1β1+ X2 β2+ ε:, where ε ∼ N(0; In &lt; Σ). This paper is an extension of the work of Ghosh et al. (1989) and considers estimation of β1 when it is suspected that β2 = 0. Empirical Bayes and hierarchical Bayes estimators of β1 are proposed. They serve as a compromise between β1, the ordinary least squares estimator and β1, the restricted least squares estimator under the assumption β=2 = 0, and lean more towards β1 if the hypothesis HO : β2 = 0 is true, and towards β1 otherwise. The methods developed are applied to a real problem.
Interaction between religions and reproduction in human populations
Authors: Reynolds V 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
Studies of the ways in which religious affiliation affects people’s attitudes to, and realization of, their reproductive potential have tended in the main to focus on a number of issues, in particular how strongly pronatalist sects may promote high fertility rates (Eaton and Mayer 1953; Hostetler and Huntington 1967, 1971; Reynolds and Tanner 1983; Reynolds 1988; Coleman, Chapter 2), or conversely how reduced fertility can come about in religious groups (Lesthaeghe 1977, 1980; Coale and Watkins 1986; Lesthaeghe and Wilson 1986; Landers 1990; Stevenson and Everson 1990). Most of the latter studies have concerned Christian sects, with the notable exception of Chamie (1981) who investigated fertility decline among educated Muslims in the Lebanon.
Such studies raise a number of wider issues that are less often addressed, probably because they are further removed from the empirical data and reach into some contentious areas of argument in sociology and economic history. For example, there is the question ‘To what extent are people’s reproductive decisions determined by their religious affiliation and to what extent by secular, economic considerations?’ This question is not overly contentious in itself. For example, Westoff and Ryder (1977) demonstrated that from 1916 to 1950 there was a progressive increase in the use of artificial methods of birth control and it became more popular among younger Catholics in various countries (see Table 3.1); this they interpreted in terms of secular factors such as the cost of education, the provision by the state of welfare benefits for the aged, and so on.
Population genetics of the a-globin complex in Oceania
Authors: Boyce A J , Harding r. M , Martinson J J 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
The techniques of molecular genetics now make it possible to study genetic variation at the level of the DNA and the application of these techniques has greatly enhanced our understanding of the causes of genetic diversity within and between human populations (Devor 1992). One of the most extensive surveys of DNA variation has been of the a-globin complex. The analysis of this diversity has provided new evidence for the importance of malaria as a selective agent. In addition to selection, genetic diversity results from the interaction of genetic drift and migration, and present day distributions of DNAmarkers are providing information about population movements and affinities. The purpose of this chapter is to review some of the recent population genetics analyses of the a globin complex, drawing on the extensive data which have been accumulated for South-East Asia and the Pacific.
The International Water Decade and Beyond: New Public Health Interventions
Authors: Bell Morag , Franceys Richard , Liao Mary 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
Since the late 1970s, the provision of public health facilities for low income communities has become the subject of heightened debate. The sheer numbers involved-in many cases, some 40-50% of major city inhabitants and some two-thirds of rural populations-have provided a compelling reason for renewed efforts at social and environmental engineering (WHO 1985). By supporting the principles of slum and shanty upgrading and minimum services in rural areas, the international aid community has given political respectability to various low cost approaches and technologies (Glaser 1985). This paper explores recent attempts to improve the effectiveness of environmental health programmes and projects as reflected in the International Drinking Water Supply and Sanitation Decade, or Water Decade, and beyond. Launched by the United Nations General Assembly on 10 November 1980 following the Mar del Plata Conference in 1977, this global movement sought to improve human access to clean water, appropriate sanitation and primary health care by 1990.
The police
Authors: Bottomley Keith , Coleman Clive 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
The primary source of statistical data on police work is the annual publication, Criminal Statistics England and Wales, with its four additional volumes of Supplementary Tables. Reference has already been made (Chapter 3) to the comprehensive data on police cautioning provided in Criminal Statistics. In addition, data is provided on how persons proceeded against at magistrates’ courts have been dealt with by the police, prior to first court appearance, including the numbers summonsed, arrested, and bailed by the police, and those arrested and held in custody (p. 27), although some official doubts have been expressed about the quality and accuracy of some of these data on remands on bail and in custody.
Survey design and interpretation of the British Crime Survey
Authors: Maung Natalie Aye 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
For most of this century, the only source of information on levels of crime has been statistics of offences recorded by the police. However, in the last 20 years an alternative has emerged: surveys of the victims of crime themselves. The origins of victim surveys lie in the USA with the 1967 United States President’s Commission on Crime, which recommended the collection of information on experiences of crime from representative samples of the population. As a result, the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), covering individuals in private households, was established in 1972, and continues today.
Programming in Genstat
Authors: Payne R W , Lane P W , Digby P G N , Harding S A , Leech P K , Morgan G W , Todd AD , Thompson R , Wilson G Tunnicliffe , Welham S J , White R P 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
In this chapter we tell you more about the structure of a Genstat program (5.1). We also describe the directives that allow you to loop over sequences of statements, or to choose between alternative sets of statements (5.2). These give you the flexibility to write general programs, where the exact analysis to be performed depends on information derived from the data when the program is run. Programs that are frequently required can be stored in procedures, as described in 5.3. This not only makes them simpler for you to use; it also means that you can make them easily available to other users, by means of libraries (5.3.1) or by articles in the Genstat Newsletter.
Analysis of time series
Authors: Payne R W , Lane P W , Digby P G N , Harding S A , Leech P K , Morgan G W , Todd AD , Thompson R , Wilson G Tunnicliffe , Welham S J , White R P 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
A time series in Genstat is a sequence of observations at equally spaced points in time. Each time series is stored in a variate for which the unit number indexes the time points. Genstat cannot deal explicitly with unequal spacing in time. So if you have such a sequence, you will need to do some form of adjustment or interpolation before using the methods described here. Genstat will handle missing values in time series, but these should not represent more than a small fraction of the data.
Modern human origins and the dynamics of regional continuity
Authors: Brace C Loring 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
Paleoanthropology has long operated ‘in the complacent mold of medieval Neoplatonic essentialism as though Darwin had never existed’ (Brace 199le, p. 884; see also Brace 1964). Not only has Homo erectus been conceptualized as an invariant typological entity throughout its existence (Rightmire 1990), but Neanderthals also continue to be regarded as though all were clones of the single robust male specimen found at La Chapelle-aux-Saints in 1908 (Stringer 1984, 1990; Stringer eta/. 1984; Tattersall 1986; Brace 1991b).
Ancient migrations from Asia to North America
Authors: Szathmary Emoke J E 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
The origin of the aboriginal peoples of North America lies in Asia. The biological evidence for this is indisputable, and includes dental traits (Hanihara 1979; Turner 1988), anthropometric and craniofacial features (Howells 1973; Alekseyev 1979; Steele and Powell 1992) and genetic characteristics (Szathmary 1979a,b, 1993; Nei and Roychoudhury 1982). The array of genes includes those that are shared between aboriginal Americans and peoples of Asia, and genes that reflect European or African gene flow. (Szathmary and Reed 1972; Williams eta/. 1986; Szathmary 1993). There are also genes that are characteristically North American, some widely distributed across the continent, and others restricted to the tribal groups in which they first appeared (Table 9.1) (Szathmary and Auger 1983; Schell and Blumberg 1988; Szathmary 1993). Not surprisingly, there is con siderable genetic heterogeneity within and between the aboriginal populations of the Americas (Salzano and Callegari-Jacques 1988; O’Rourke eta/. 1992). North of Mexico the variation is associated with differences in language (Spuhler 1972) as well as differences in culture area (Spuhler 1979), the latter being geographic regions in which tribes shared a variety of cultural attributes, though language was not necessarily one of them.
Adaptive voyaging and subsistence strategies in the early settlement of East Polynesia
Authors: Anderson Atholl J 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
The final prehistoric dispersal of the Mongoloid peoples was into the islands and archipelagos of East (or Marginal) Polynesia, a migration that probably began less than 2000 years ago and which briefly completed the Pacific-rim circle of Mongoloid colonization by contact with South America. It was, of course, only the last of a series of migrations which had begun during the Pleistocene and it arose directly from the ca. 3000 BP expansion of Lapita culture which provided a common foundation to late Holocene settlement of Remote Oceania as far east as Tonga and Samoa. East Polynesia, however, lay entirely beyond the Lapita range, according to current data. Instead, it was colonized by people who, by about 2500 BP, had diverged from Lapita ancestry in culture and perhaps phenotype and become Polynesians.
In colonizing the archipelagos and islands of East Polynesia they had to con tend with a region of 20 million km2 of Pacific Ocean, in which the total land mass amounted to less than 0.3%, and nearly all of that in the least accessible and last-discovered islands of New Zealand (269 000 km2). The combined total landmass of all the other islands is a mere 22000 km2, which is barely larger than Shikoku, the smallest of the main islands of Japan, and it was distributed amongst some 150 habitable islands.
C(α) Tests For Homogeneity Of Proportions In Toxicology In The Presence Of Beta-Binomial Overdispersion
Authors: Paul S R 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
Data in the form of proportions arise in toxicology and other similar fields. An important problem is to compare proportion of a certain characteristic in several groups. However, these proportions often exhibit variation greater than predicted by a simple binomial model (Williams 1975). Several parametric models are available for analysing binomial data with overdispersion (see, for example, Altham 1978, Haseman and Kupper 1979). The superiority of the beta-binomial (BB) model for the analysis of toxicological data in the form of proportions has been shown by many authors (Paul 1982, Pack 1986). For a fuller discussion of the methods of analysis of proportions in toxicology, see Haseman and Kupper (1979). A number of procedures are available for testing homogeneity of proportions in the presence of overdispersion. Of these, the likelihood ratio (LR) test has found prominence in the literature. For the homogeneity of proportions in two groups, Pack (1986) found, through simulation, that the likelihood ratio test was better than a range of others, including those based on simple transformation of proportions.
Issues in DNA fingerprinting
Authors: Chernoff Herman 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
The use of blood types for identification of parents and criminals began to be replaced in 1985 by the much more powerful technology of DNA profiling, popularly referred to as DNA fingerprinting (Jeffreys et al. 1985). Since then the use of this method in court has been questioned, and it has been the subject of numerous discussions in legal and scientific journals.
Numbering the people: issues of accuracy, privacy and open government
Authors: Redfern Philip 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
The title ‘Numbering the people’ may be interpreted in two ways. It could mean counting the people by taking a census; alternatively it could mean assigning to each citizen a personal number to distinguish him or her from other citizens - the citizens’ names and their numbers would be listed in a register held by the numberissuing authority. In this century personal names have increasingly been supplemented by personal numbers in order to correct for the imprecision and unreliability of names. These two interpretations of my title are closely related and I shall examine both of them.
Experimentation: just do it!
Authors: Moses Lincoln E , Mosteller Frederick 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
Progress in activities like medical care, education and business grows largely from making changes in the way things are done. We will call those ‘policy changes’. Their many forms include: decisions to change, abandon, or begin regulatory measures; decisions to invest or divest; decisions to introduce, modify, or curtail services or product lines. The success of policy changes rests in large part on the availability and reliability of the information considered in making the decision. Information sources include sample surveys, administrative records, focus groups, theoretical formulations – and experiments.
Talents, rewards and professional choice: a general equilibrium analysis
Authors: Dresch Stephen P , Janson Kenneth R 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
Even the most casual observer recognizes that ‘talent’, however conceived, varies significantly across individuals. Not only are some individuals ‘more talented’ than others; perhaps more importantly, individuals differ in the fundamental nature of their talents. Thus, one individual may exhibit ‘scientific’ talent, another ‘artistic’ talent, another a ‘talent’ for manipulation of others, etc. Correspondingly, as similarly casual observation reveals, professions or occupations are differentiated by the degree to which individual performance is dependent on specific talents and hence by the extent to which rewards (earnings and other perquisites of employment) reflect the particular configurations of talent brought to bear by individual practitioners. Thus, casual observation gives rise to a quite sophisticated characterization of the role of talent in interacting labor markets.
The Framing of Statistical Decision Theory: A Decision Analytic View
Authors: French S 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
General decision theory has grown from studies in many disciplines: economics, mathematics, operational research, philosophy, politics, psychology and statistics, to name but a few. The applications of decision theory are numerous, each drawing upon slightly different decision theoretic themes and sets of assumptions. This paper will focus on just two applications: firstly, decision analysis as practised in supporting strategic decision making; and, secondly, statistical decision theory.
Construction of Thematic Maps from Satellite Imagery
Authors: Green* E J , Smith** A F M , Strawderman* W E 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
We examine the problem of constructing thematic maps which show land-use patterns, given satellite data and deterministic prior information. The latter came from a road network. We make the simplifying assumption that the satellite observations are conditionally independent, given the scene. We specify a normal likelihood, the usual normal-inverse Wishart prior for the distributional parameters, and a Markov random field prior for the image together with the road information. Our results indicate that the Markov random field prior and road network information help improve classification, despite evidence that the assumption of normal likelihoods is suspect.
Bayesian Approaches to Non- and Semiparametric Density Estimation
Authors: Hjort N L 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
This paper proposes and discusses several Bayesian attempts at nonparametric and semiparametric density estimation. The main categories of these ideas are as follows: (1) Build a nonparametric prior around a given parametric model. We look at cases where the nonparametric part of the construction is a Dirichlet process or relatives thereof. (2) Express the density as an additive expansion of orthogonal basis functions, and place priors on the coefficients. Here attention is given to a certain robust Hermite expansion around the normal distribution. Multiplicative expansions are also considered. (3) Express the unknown density as locally being of a certain parametric form, then construct suitable local likelihood functions to express information content, and place local priors on the local parameters.
Mixtures, Bayes and Archaeology*
Authors: Buck* C E , Litton** C D 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
As a consequence of marked improvements in computer power and innovations in both statistical modelling and Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling schemes, it is now practical to undertake genuinely applied investigations of mixtures models even in high dimensions. In this paper we introduce a field of archaeological study, that of ceramic provenancing, which requires statistical investigation of trace element data arising from the chemical analysis of pottery objects. We explain that there is a vast range of prior information which has, traditionally, not been incorporated into statistical investigations, but which nonetheless should play an important role in any inferences made. Although the computations are time consuming, we show that a wide range of different types of prior information can be included and thus permitted to affect the archaeological interpretations made. We believe that, for the first time, archaeologists are now offered an inferential framework for mixtures problems which encourages explicit statement of their prior knowledge and coherent, model-based, probabilistic reasoning.
Sequential Diagrams and Influence Diagrams: A Complementary Relationship for Modeling and Solving Decision Problems
Authors: Covaliu Z 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
The conventional influence diagram paradigm is deficient in representing and solving asymmetric decision problems, which abound in the practice of decision analysis. A sequential diagram is a directed graph that, while sharing the node set of an influence diagram, captures asymmetric and time aspects of sequential decision problems as effectively as a decision tree. We define reduction operations on sequential diagrams and focus on the close relationship between sequential diagrams and influence diagrams in extensive form. We propose that the concurrent reduction of the two graphs and the complementary representation of a problem at all stages of solution provide insight into a problem’s structure not available by any of the graphs alone, streamline computations, and may indicate potential inadequacies in the initial model.
A Bayes Decision-Theoretic Approach to Dimensionality Reduction in Screen Design
Authors: Laws* D J , Boys** R J , Glazebrook** K D 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
A performance variable T is expensive or destructive to measure, but a p-dimensional variable x_(P) is available to screen for T. A Bayes decision-theoretic approach is used to generate robust screen designs in which the parameters in a linear probit model for TIX.(p) have an asymptotic normal posterior distribution. Within this modelling context we explore the design of simple screens based on d ( &lt; p) components of x_(P) and propose a variety of heuristic approaches to how these components should be chosen. The proposed designs are assessed computationally assuming multivariate normality for x_(P).
A Belief Function Approach to Likelihood Updating in a Gaussian Linear Model
Authors: Meehan* P M , Dempster** A P , Brown*** E N 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
We consider a stochastic model for cortisol dynamics that can be expressed as a Gaussian linear model conditional on a set of unknown pulse locations. Implementation of the Bayesian paradigm by Monte Carlo Markov Chajn (MCMC) methods requires iterative updating of the likelihood for changes in the model. We show that likelihood updating can be efficiently performed by representing the model components as a set of belief functions and using the sweep operator to perform computations.
Models for Shape Deformation
Authors: Wilson A G , Johnson V E 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
Much work in Bayesian image analysis has focused on incorporating vague prior knowledge about an image into its analysis and on the calculation of appropriate estimates of the resulting posterior distribution. However, in the field of medical imaging, there is a need to incorporate specific prior information into many image analysis tasks. This paper discusses various models for shape deformation and proposes a model that accounts for features at multiple spatial resolutions.