bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
ICT4D: A Frontier for Higher Education in Developing Nations
Authors: Colle Royal , Roman Raul 
Published: March 2004

AbstractInformation and communication technologies (ICT) have become important features on the social and geographical landscapes of Africa and Asia in the early twenty-first century. This article discusses the various institutions and forces that play roles in applying these technologies to the challenges of community development. Case studies punctuate the text to provide concrete examples of the ideas and potential flowing out of the ICT environment, especially manifested by telecenters. The discussion highlights the low visibility of universities among the major actors and argues that they should build their capacities to be partners in the ICTs for Development movement.
Distance Learning and Virtual Education for Higher Education in Africa: Evaluation of Options and Strategies
Authors: Moyo Stanley 
Published: March 2004

AbstractThis paper briefly reviews the status of distance education and virtual education in the higher-education sector in Africa. The key issues affecting distance education in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are identified and discussed. An analysis of the major issues facing distance education in SSA is made. It is noted that the full range of opportunities offered by information and communication technology (ICT) for higher education in Africa is largely underexploited. Factors responsible for this situation are identified and a range of strategies is recommended for resolving this situation. Finally, a model of distance education that can potentially enhance the use of ICT in higher education in SSA is proposed.
Strategies for Promoting Virtual Higher Education: General Considerations on Africa and Asia
Authors: Kuroda Kazuo , Shanawez Hossain 
Published: March 2004

Abstract
Education in general, and specifically higher education, plays an important role in the development process of all nations. Institutions of higher education have an important responsibility to support knowledge-driven economic growth strategies. This paper investigates the strategies of how by applying technologies on a large scale—with close attention to quality—virtual education can help higher education to find a way through the crisis of access, prohibitive cost, and lack of flexibility that we find all over the developing world. By addressing various issues related to planning, implementation, and quality with proper strategies, virtual education can provide immense opportunity to reduce the North-South knowledge gap and also to promote the development of the developing world. This paper reviews various issues related to promotion and quality control in virtual higher education and addresses possible strategies with general considerations of Africa and Asia.
Quality of life of survivors from severe sepsis and septic shock may be similar to that of others who survive critical illness
Authors: Granja Cristina , Dias Cláudia , Costa-Pereira Altamiro , Sarmento António 
Published: March 2004

Abstract
Introduction
The objective of the present study was to compare the health-related quality of life (HR-QoL) of survivors from severe sepsis and septic shock with HR-QoL in others who survived critical illness not involving sepsis.

Methods
From March 1997 to March 2001, adult patients in an eight-bed medical/surgical intensive care unit (ICU) of a tertiary care hospital admitted with severe sepsis or septic shock (sepsis group; n = 305) were enrolled and compared with patients admitted without sepsis (control group; n = 392). Patients younger than 18 years (n = 48) and those whose ICU stay was 1 day or less (n = 453) were excluded. In addition, patients exhibiting nonsevere sepsis on admission were excluded (n = 87). Finally, patients who developed nonsevere sepsis or severe sepsis/septic shock after admission were also excluded (n = 88).

Results
In-hospital mortality rates were 34% in the sepsis group and 26% in the control group. There were no differences in sex, age, main activity (work status), and previous health state between groups. Survivors in the sepsis group had a significantly higher Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score on admission (17 versus 12) and stayed significantly longer in the ICU. A follow-up appointment was held 6 months after ICU discharge, and an EQ-5D (EuroQol five-dimension) questionnaire was administered. A total of 104 sepsis survivors and 133 survivors in the control group answered the EQ-5D questionnaire. Sepsis survivors reported significantly fewer problems only in the anxiety/depression dimension. Although there were no significant differences in the other dimensions of the EQ-5D, there was a trend towards fewer problems being reported by sepsis survivors.

Conclusion
Evaluation using the EQ-5D at 6 months after ICU discharge indicated that survivors from severe sepsis and septic shock have a similar HR-QoL to that of survivors from critical illness admitted without sepsis.
Case mix, outcome and length of stay for admissions to adult, general critical care units in England, Wales and Northern Ireland: the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre Case Mix Programme Database
Authors: Harrison David A , Brady Anthony R , Rowan Kathy 
Published: March 2004

Abstract
Introduction
The present paper describes the methods of data collection and validation employed in the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre Case Mix Programme (CMP), a national comparative audit of outcome for adult, critical care admissions. The paper also describes the case mix, outcome and activity of the admissions in the Case Mix Programme Database (CMPD).

Methods
The CMP collects data on consecutive admissions to adult, general critical care units in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Explicit steps are taken to ensure the accuracy of the data, including use of a dataset specification, of initial and refresher training courses, and of local and central validation of submitted data for incomplete, illogical and inconsistent values. Criteria for evaluating clinical databases developed by the Directory of Clinical Databases were applied to the CMPD. The case mix, outcome and activity for all admissions were briefly summarised.

Results
The mean quality level achieved by the CMPD for the 10 Directory of Clinical Databases criteria was 3.4 (on a scale of 1 = worst to 4 = best). The CMPD contained validated data on 129,647 admissions to 128 units. The median age was 63 years, and 59% were male. The mean Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score was 16.5. Mortality was 20.3% in the CMP unit and was 30.8% at ultimate discharge from hospital. Nonsurvivors stayed longer in intensive care than did survivors (median 2.0 days versus 1.7 days in the CMP unit) but had a shorter total hospital length of stay (9 days versus 16 days). Results for the CMPD were comparable with results from other published reports of UK critical care admissions.

Conclusions
The CMP uses rigorous methods to ensure data are complete, valid and reliable. The CMP scores well against published criteria for high-quality clinical databases.
Sensitivity of raindrop formation in ascending cloud parcels to cloud condensation nuclei and thermodynamic conditions
Authors: Segal Y. , Khain A. , Pinsky M. , Sterkin A. 
Published: March 2004

AbstractThis paper uses a 2000‐bin spectral microphysics cloud parcel model to investigate the effects of aerosol particles on droplet spectrum evolution and warm rain formation in ascending cloud parcels under maritime, intermediate, and continental unstable thermodynamic conditions. Cloud parcels of different cloud depth are simulated for each thermodynamic condition. Concentration and size distribution of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) were varied within a wide range for each cloud depth.Cloud parcels were divided into three groups with respect to the relationship between cloud depth Hc and the distance of the collision triggering level Hcol above cloud base. The sensitivity of precipitation to CCN variations is quite different for the different groups. Parcels of the first group (Hc < Hcol) do not precipitate. Precipitation from cloud parcels belonging to the second group, in which collisions start at a small distance below the maximum cloud‐top height (Hc ≃ Hcol), turns out to be highly sensitive to the variation of CCN concentration and size distribution. For these parcels an increase in the concentration of large CCN can result in an increase in precipitation amount by several factors. Many cloud parcels arising under continental and intermediate conditions, as well as not very deep maritime clouds, can be assigned to this group. The precipitation amount from cloud parcels belonging to the third group (Hc ≫ Hcol), represented by deep tropical clouds, turns out to be insensitive to CCN distribution and droplet concentration within a wide range of their variations. Comparable effects of small and large CCN on precipitation formation are analysed for each group of cloud parcels.These results are closely related to the problem of rain enhancement via hygroscopic seeding. It is shown that there is a certain range of cloud depths within which cloud seeding can potentially lead to a significant (several times) increase in rain within ascending parcels. Rain formed in cloud parcels with depths beyond this range is only slightly sensitive to the CCN concentration. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society
Factors contributing to the onset of the Australian summer monsoon
Authors: Hung Chih‐Wen , Yanai Michio 
Published: March 2004

AbstractUsing the reanalyses from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts, outgoing long‐wave radiation (OLR) and precipitation data for 1979–93, this paper examines major factors contributing to the onset of the Australian summer monsoon. The low‐level (850 hPa) westerly wind and convective activity (OLR, precipitation) over a region in northern Australia (NAU) are used to determine the onset dates. Composite results are then derived, based on these dates. Daily apparent heat source and apparent moisture sink values are obtained as residuals of the large‐scale heat and moisture budgets to help clarify the roles of the various heating processes in the onset. Four major factors contributing to the onset are identified: (1) land–sea thermal contrast, (2) barotropic instability, (3) arrival of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and (4) intrusion of midlatitude troughs. The thermal contrast due to differential heating between land and sea acts as a seasonal preconditioning for the onset. The sensible heating over the continent leads to a reversal of meridional temperature gradient between the Australian continent and the Arafura Sea in a layer below 800 hPa in September–March, and sets up a thermally induced meridional–vertical circulation which helps to transport low‐level moist air inland. The barotropic instability criterion is often met at 850 hPa in NAU several days prior to the onset. The sudden onset is then triggered by the arriving MJO and at times by the intrusion of a midlatitude trough. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society
Three‐dimensional simulation of the ASTEX Lagrangian 1 field experiment with a regional numerical weather prediction model
Authors: Sigg Robert , Svensson Gunilla 
Published: March 2004

AbstractThe Atlantic Stratocumulus Transition Experiment (ASTEX) first Lagrangian experiment (Lagrangian 1) is here simulated with a modified version of the regional forecast model HIRLAM (High Resolution Limited Area Model). The main modification is that moist turbulent fluxes are accounted for in the model. Trajectory calculations show good agreement with earlier estimations. The initially rather shallow stratocumulus topped marine boundary layer is deepening along the trajectory, and in the end cumulus clouds are formed that penetrate the boundary‐layer top. The model predicts this change in cloudiness, but the boundary layer is too shallow in the model. A simulation with modified initial conditions shows improved results, but is still too slow in increasing the boundary‐layer depth. Additional factors that influence the boundary‐layer growth are: the increase in sea surface temperatures, lower modelled wind speeds, low entrainment rates due to coarse vertical resolution, and synoptic‐scale subsidence.An anticyclone at the surface moved slightly northward during the simulation. The anticyclone was accompanied at 500 hPa by a deepening cyclone and, therefore, one would expect synoptic subsidence in the area of the Lagrangian 1. The modelled negative vertical wind component at the boundary‐layer top oscillates, and this is examined using spectral analysis. The results show that the vertical velocity is influenced by cumulus clouds on time‐scales up to 15 h with a peak at 9 h. The horizontal and vertical wavelengths of the vertical velocity disturbances are estimated from model output to be 400–500 km and 6–10 km, respectively. Using the estimated vertical wavelength and linear theory for hydrostatic inertia–gravity waves, a horizontal wavelength of 350–550 km was calculated for a frequency of 9 h. The model results thus indicate that these types of waves are responsible for the undulating vertical velocity.Finally, an estimation of the synoptic‐scale vertical velocity is calculated by filtering out all scales smaller than 15 h from the vertical velocity signal. This results in subsidence both at the beginning and the end of the Lagrangian with vertical velocities between −0.1 and −0.4 cm s−1. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society
Exploration of some convective regimes over the Alpine orography
Authors: Stein J. 
Published: March 2004

AbstractA numerical exploration of several airflow regimes is performed by means of the non‐hydrostatic model Meso‐NH. The Alpine orography has been selected together with a uniform conditionally unstable profile extracted from the Mesoscale Alpine Programme database. The stationary solution is obtained at the fine scale after three successive simulations using three nested levels (40, 10 and 2.5 km). The variation of the non‐dimensional height of the Alps leads to the following regimes: no convection, upstream propagating convection and stationary convection over the Alps. The last two regimes correspond to regimes I and II of the Chu and Lin (2000) study. The sensitivity of the convective response to the fine‐scale orography is found to be more important for regime II than for regime I. Moisture budgets confirm the importance of the barrier wind to determine the rain distribution: in the centre of the Alpine orography for regime II and away from it for regime I. The drying ratio is more influenced by the comparative value of the advective time to a characteristic microphysical time‐scale than by the orographic forcing itself. Finally, for this sounding, the diabatic effects change the critical value of the non‐dimensional height for the transition between the ‘flow‐over’ and ‘flow‐around’ configurations. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society
Estimation of the reliability of ensemble‐based probabilistic forecasts
Authors: Atger Frédéric 
Published: March 2004

AbstractReliability is an essential attribute of the quality of probabilistic forecasts. It is traditionally estimated by defining a number of arbitrary probability categories. Reliability is often difficult to estimate accurately with a small sample size. This occurs, for example, when evaluating high probabilities of rare events. Significance tests are used in this study in order to determine an appropriate categorization of forecast probabilities for the estimation of reliability. For events occurring frequently, this method leads to credible estimates of the performance for the whole range of forecast probabilities. On the other hand, the reliability of higher probabilities for infrequent events cannot be estimated with confidence. A statistical scheme has been designed for estimating reliability from limited samples, even in the case of rare events and higher probabilities. The procedure consists of fitting a Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve under the bi‐normal assumption. The validity of the method is discussed by testing its ability to estimate reliability from truncated verification samples. The positive impact of a basic method of calibration is increased when it is applied after an estimation of reliability through a fitting of the ROC curve. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society
Sensitivity of dynamical seasonal forecasts to ocean initial conditions
Authors: Alves Oscar , Balmaseda Magdalena Alonso , Anderson David , Stockdale Tim 
Published: March 2004

AbstractThe impact of ocean data assimilation on dynamical El Niño–Southern Oscillation forecasting is studied by looking at forecasts started from ocean initial conditions produced with and without data assimilation. Sensitivity is further examined by comparing coupled forecasts started from initial conditions obtained using different ocean‐forcing fields. A total of four ocean reanalyses for the period 1990–97, two analyses using sub‐surface data assimilation and two using only wind and sea‐surface‐temperature (SST) information are considered. Different wind‐stress forcing produces significantly different analyses when subsurface data are not assimilated, but these differences are much smaller when subsurface temperatures are assimilated.The statistics of the forecast errors show that, with data assimilation, the forecasts of the NINO3 area (5°S–5°N,150°W–90°W) SST anomaly clearly beat persistence over all lead times (1–6 months), which is not the case when subsurface ocean observations are not used. The forecasts from the analyses using different wind forcing and no data assimilation differ considerably. The forecasts started from the analyses with data assimilation are generally similar irrespective of which wind product is used, suggesting that data assimilation is effective at reducing the impact of errors in the wind. For both wind forcings, data assimilation improves the forecast skill. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society
Hydraulic aspects of föhn winds in an Alpine valley
Authors: Gohm A. , Mayr G. J. 
Published: March 2004

AbstractThis study examines the applicability of single‐layer hydraulic theory to Alpine föhn winds in the example of the flow in the Brenner Pass region (Austria/Italy). The south föhn is described as the gap flow over the Pass and along the associated Wipp Valley. Numerical shallow‐water simulations for a wide range of initial conditions, including shallow‐ and deep‐föhn cases, are discussed and compared with selected measurements collected within the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP). The observational analyses are based on Doppler and aerosol‐backscatter lidar data for a specific föhn case, and on surface observations and radiosoundings for all föhn cases observed within the 70‐day MAP Special Observing Period (SOP).Radiosoundings at a location upstream (south) and downstream (north) of the Brenner Pass reveal that the average MAP SOP föhn case had subcritical flow south and nearly critical flow north of the Brenner Pass. The hydraulic model indicates flow transition to a supercritical state near the Pass, a hydraulic jump 2 km further north, mainly subcritical flow in the upper Wipp Valley except near the Brenner and, especially for shallow föhn, a tendency to becoming supercritical in the lower Wipp Valley. The model results suggest that the vertical topographic contraction exerts stronger control for the flow at the Brenner gap than the lateral contraction. In accordance with Doppler lidar measurements, the hydraulic model captures the decrease of the wind speed in the across‐valley direction from east to west in the northern part of the valley. This asymmetric flow pattern is a result of the complex valley geometry rather than of the influence of upper‐level synoptic winds, as suggested in a previous study.For some observed cases the strength of the temperature inversion at the top of the föhn layer decreased across the Brenner Pass, presumably due to entrainment processes. Consequently, the reduced‐gravity decreased as well. There are two major reasons for the only moderate agreement between the hydraulic parameters retrieved from soundings and those provided by the model: the model assumes a constant value of reduced‐gravity, and the calculation of hydraulic parameters for föhn cases without a strong and sharp temperature inversion is ambiguous. Essential flow patterns in the simulated fields, such as the location of the pressure minimum and wind speed maxima, compare well with the surface observations along a valley transect. Indications for a steeply amplified, or breaking, gravity wave resembling a hydraulic jump to the lee of the two mountain ridges are found in lidar observations as well as in the simulations. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society
Adjoint sensitivity analysis of an observational operator for visible and infrared cloudy‐sky radiance assimilation
Authors: Greenwald Thomas J. , Vukićević Tomislava , Grasso Louis D. , Haar Thomas H. Vonder 
Published: March 2004

AbstractAn adjoint modelling system is developed for an observational operator at visible and infrared wavelengths to explore the connection between cloud microphysics and top of atmosphere (TOA) radiances at cloud‐resolving scales (2–5 km) in preparation for direct assimilation of cloudy‐sky radiance satellite data. Analysis was performed on complex simulated three‐dimensional cloud fields for different weather phenomena generated by the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System using two‐moment microphysics. Sensitivity of TOA radiances at 0.63, 3.92, and 10.7 µm to changes in cloud mixing ratio revealed that small liquid drops and ice particles for very optically thin clouds were the largest contributors to the radiative sensitivities. More importantly, the sensitivities at these wavelengths were found to be complementary; i.e. 0.63 µm reflectances possessed greatest sensitivity to optically thinner water and ice clouds, whereas 3.92 µm responded to thick water clouds and to ice clouds, while 10.7 µm was most sensitive to thinner, cold ice clouds. Implications for numerical weather prediction (NWP) models that do not predict particle number concentration are that radiative sensitivities change somewhat in magnitude but retain the same sign, provided reasonable concentrations are assumed for broad classes of particle types. Overall, results indicated that satellite radiances measured in visible/infrared spectral windows contain potential information regarding cloud microphysics, especially at solar wavelengths, suggesting that direct assimilation of these data may be useful in supplying unique cloud information to NWP models. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society