bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Meta-Analysis Using Multilevel Models with an Application to the Study of Class Size Effects
Authors: Goldstein Harvey , Yang Min , Omar Rumana , Turner Rebecca , Thompson Simon 
Published: March 2003

SUMMARY
Meta-analysis is formulated as a special case of a multilevel (hierarchical data) model in which the highest level is that of the study and the lowest level that of an observation on an individual respondent. Studies can be combined within a single model where the responses occur at different levels of the data hierarchy and efficient estimates are obtained. An example is given from studies of class sizes and achievement in schools, where study data are available at the aggregate level in terms of overall mean values for classes of different sizes, and also at the student level.
Analysing the Interevent Time Distribution to Identify Seismicity Phases: A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach to the Multiple-Changepoint Problem
Authors: Pievatolo Antonio , Rotondi Renata 
Published: March 2003

SUMMARY
In the study of earthquakes, several aspects of the underlying physical process, such as the time non-stationarity of the process, are not yet well understood, because we lack clear indications about its evolution in time. Taking as our point of departure the theory that the seismic process evolves in phases with different activity patterns, we have attempted to identify these phases through the variations in the interevent time probability distribution within the framework of the multiple-changepoint problem. In a nonparametric Bayesian setting, the distribution under examination has been considered a random realization from a mixture of Dirichlet processes, the parameter of which is proportional to a generalized gamma distribution. In this way we could avoid making precise assumptions about the functional form of the distribution. The number and location in time of the phases are unknown and are estimated at the same time as the interevent time distributions. We have analysed the sequence of main shocks that occurred in Irpinia, a particularly active area in southern Italy: the method consistently identifies changepoints at times when strong stress releases were recorded. The estimation problem can be solved by stochastic simulation methods based on Markov chains, the implementation of which is improved, in this case, by the good analytical properties of the Dirichlet process.
Missing Time-Dependent Covariates in Human Immunodeficiency Virus Dynamic Models
Authors: Wu Lang , Wu Hulin 
Published: March 2003

Summary
The study of human immunodeficiency virus dynamics is one of the most important areas in research into acquired immune deficiency syndrome in recent years. Non-linear mixed effects models have been proposed for modelling viral dynamic processes. A challenging problem in the modelling is to identify repeatedly measured (time-dependent), but possibly missing, immunologic or virologic markers (covariates) for viral dynamic parameters. For missing time-dependent covariates in non-linear mixed effects models, the commonly used complete-case, mean imputation and last value carried forward methods may give misleading results. We propose a three-step hierarchical multiple-imputation method, implemented by Gibbs sampling, which imputes the missing data at the individual level but can pool information across individuals. We compare various methods by Monte Carlo simulations and find that the multiple-imputation method proposed performs the best in terms of bias and mean-squared errors in the estimates of covariate coefficients. By applying the favoured multiple-imputation method to clinical data, we conclude that there is a negative correlation between the viral decay rate (a virological response parameter) and CD4 or CD8 cell counts during the treatment; this is counter-intuitive, but biologically interpretable on the basis of findings from other clinical studies. These results may have an important influence on decisions about treatment for acquired immune deficiency syndrome patients.
Analysing Partial Ranks by Using Smoothed Paired Comparison Methods: An Investigation of Value Orientation in Europe
Authors: Francis Brian , Dittrich Regina , Hatzinger Reinhold , Penn Roger 
Published: March 2003

SummaryThis paper introduces the paired comparison model as a suitable approach for the analysis of partially ranked data. For example, the Inglehart index, collected in international social surveys to examine shifts in post-materialistic values, generates such data on a set of attitude items. However, current analysis methods have failed to account for the complex shifts in individual item values, or to incorporate subject covariates. The paired comparison model is thus developed to allow for covariate subject effects at the individual level, and a reparameterization allows the inclusion of smooth non-linear effects of continuous covariates. The Inglehart index collected in the 1993 International Social Science Programme survey is analysed, and complex non-linear changes of item values with age, level of education and religion are identified. The model proposed provides a powerful tool for social scientists.
Data Analytic Methods for Latent Partially Ordered Classification Models
Authors: Tatsuoka Curtis 
Published: March 2003

Summary
A general framework is presented for data analysis of latent finite partially ordered classification models. When the latent models are complex, data analytic validation of model fits and of the analysis of the statistical properties of the experiments is essential for obtaining reliable and accurate results. Empirical results are analysed from an application to cognitive modelling in educational testing. It is demonstrated that sequential analytic methods can dramatically reduce the amount of testing that is needed to make accurate classifications.
A Compound Poisson Model for Word Occurrences in DNA Sequences
Authors: Robin Stéphane 
Published: March 2003

SummaryWe present a compound Poisson model describing the occurrence process of a set of words in a random sequence of letters. The model takes into account the frequency of the words and their overlapping structure. The model is compared with a Markov chain model in terms of fit and parsimony. Special attention is given to the detection of poor or rich regions. Several applications of the model are presented and a combination of the Markov and compound Poisson models is proposed.
Prediction in ARMA Models with GARCH in Mean Effects
Authors: Karanasos Menelaos 
Published: March 2003

This paper considers forecasting the conditional mean and variance from an ARMA model with GARCH in mean effects. Expressions for the optimal predictors and their conditional and unconditional MSEs are presented. We also derive the formula for the covariance structure of the process and its conditional variance.JEL. C22.
The British Docks: A Test of Alternative Models of Wage and Employment Determination
Authors: Gavosto Andrea 
Published: March 2003

In this paper we compare two well‐known models of union bargaining: labour demand and efficient bargains. We use data on the British docks which belonged to the national Dock Labour Board, abolished in 1989. The docks industry is particularly well‐suited for a test of the competing models: in fact it had a long tradition of union bargaining on manning levels and, at the same time, it experienced a long‐run decline in employment. Also, jobless dockers were granted some form of unemployment compensation.The institutional features of the industry allow to test a strong version of the efficient bargain model, where the union equates the utility of those who work and those who do not. Our evidence supports the strong efficiency hypothesis: employment depends only on the opportunity cost of working. The secular decline in employment in the industry is explained mainly by technological progress, i.e. the introduction of containers.
Learning from the Wise People
Authors: Budd Alan 
Published: March 2003

This paper describes the origins and work of the Panel of Independent Forecasters which was set up by the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Norman Lamont, in the aftermath of the UK’s departure from the Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992.The Panel was required to provide forecasts of the UK economy and was also invited to comment on policy developments and to provide recommendations. The Panel’s forecasts, its analysis of wider economic issues and its policy advice are discussed. Comments on its contribution to UK policy‐making are put forward.
Equilibrium with Profit‐Rate Maximizing Producers
Authors: Borisov Kirill 
Published: March 2003

We consider a general equilibrium model with producers maximizing their profit rates and using some fraction of profit for investment. Under some assumptions a stationary equilibrium exists and, in the case of generalized Leontief technologies, the equilibrium prices can be found by means of the cost‐minimizing procedure. If at least one active producer uses some fraction of his profit for dividends, and therefore not investing all his profit, an equilibrium allocation is technologically inefficient.We also consider a multi‐regional variant of the model and study the existence of the equilibrium problem from another point of view. Namely, we fix wage rates in the regions and equalize labor demand and labor supply by varying the fractions of profit used for investment.
Energy use and productivity performance in the Nigerian manufacturing sector (1970‐90)
Authors: Adenikinju Adeola F. , Alaba Olumuyiwa B. 
Published: March 2003

This paper investigates the relationship between productivity performance and energy consumption in the Nigerian manufacturing sector at both aggregated and disaggregated levels.It adopts a non‐parametric approach to the measurement of total factor productivity (TFP). It then specifies a regression model linking the estimated TFP growth with changes in energy use. The objective is to examine the impact of energy‐pricing policy on efficiency in the manufacturing sector.The paper establishes that energy consumption still plays a critical role in productivity growth in the Nigerian manufacturing sector. However, the recent price reforms in the energy sector can only achieve meaningful results if accompanied by technological reforms in the manufacturing sector. The industrial sector is still dominated by old energy‐inefficient technology.However, there are prospects for enhancing energy efficiency in the long run. When prices are allowed to signal the real cost of an input, producers would not only become efficient in energy use, but would also be able to select appropriate input combinationsthat minimised their costs of production. Long‐term investment would also be committed to energy‐saving equipment.Furthermore, the development of the gas sub‐sector may also provide an alternative source of energy to many firms.
Pests and Diseases of Prehistoric Crops: A Yield ‘Honeymoon’ for Early Grain Crops in Europe?
Authors: Dark Petra , Gent Henry 
Published: March 2003

Before the agricultural improvements of recent centuries, grain yields in medieval Europe appear to have been extremely low: well below the full potential of the crops. If yields were similarly low in prehistory, the adoption of cereal cultivation could have conveyed few benefits in terms of productivity. Consideration of the key constraints on cereal yield highlights the previous neglect of the role of pests and diseases. It is suggested that these may have been particularly damaging in the medieval period, but much less so during the early stages of the adoption of agriculture.Textual and archaeological evidence for the past occurrence of pests and diseases is discussed and, combined with consideration of the development of pest and pathogen problems of recent crop introductions, used to provide a possible outline of the early development of the pest/disease burden. It is suggested that when grain crops were first introduced into temperate Europe there may have been a ‘honeymoon period’ with high yields: pests and diseases which had been endemic on cereals in semi‐arid, continental, or Mediterranean climates did not thrive in the temperature climate, while species native to north‐west Europe may not have been adapted to attack cereals. Subsequently, however, some pests and diseases evolved to attack cereals in this environment. These may have prompted changes in grain production methods to reduce the risk of damage. Pests and diseases must have been a driving force in agrarian change for several millennia, and cannot be ignored in attempts to understand the history of agriculture.
The Case for Restructuring the UK Secondary School
Authors: Watkins Chris 
Published: March 2003

Chris Watkins was a member of the first NAPCE executive in 1982, and has continued on that committee and on the London committee ever since. He was chair of NAPCE from 1992 to 1994, and is currently chair of the Publications Committee. He has been a maths teacher in a large secondary school, a teacher in charge of a unit for pupils whose effect on school was disruptive, and a trained school counsellor.He is now head of the academic group ‘Assessment, Guidance and Effective Learning’ at the University of London Institute of Education, where his current areas of work include school behaviour, mentoring, tutoring, personal–social education – all centrally linked to effective learning in classrooms and school. He is course tutor to the MA in Effective Learning and the MA in School Development, and is involved in consultancy to schools and training others in consultation. Current research projects include ‘The Violence‐resilient School’ and ‘Learning about Learning’.
Three Faces of Justice and the Management of Change
Authors: Leader Sheldon 
Published: March 2003

The apparatus of legal principles we use has, far more than we realise, transformed the way we think about the control of private power in the name of social justice. The actual sort of equity that the legal and political system is searching for is not reflected in our major political theories, nor indeed in the official rhetoric of many such systems themselves. The reason for this mismatch has to do with the need to accomodate change – a space opened by the law and unacknowledged by theory.This article sets out the current theoretical frameworks within which the regulation of private power is analysed, and it contrasts these with a different approach to the problem of justice at work in employment and corporate law that does not find its way into theory. Once that approach is given a formulation, its place within a larger theory of justice is proposed, and its wider implications for the relationship between state and civil society are investigated.
The Development of Scottish Border Lordship, 1332–58
Authors: Bown M. H. 
Published: March 2003

Abstract
This article examines the effect of sustained warfare on the political society of southern Scotland. Using contemporary sources it discusses the disintegration of existing structures of lordship in the thirteen‐thirties and the exercise of effective leadership by minor landowners and their followers. This process is considered in the context of similar changes in the regional power structures elsewhere in the British Isles. The new limitations placed on royal authority in the Scottish Marches continued beyond the period of major war and culminated in the formalization of personal and military lordship with the creation of the earldom of Douglas in 1358.
Letters and Documents Relating to the Service of Nelson's Ships, 1780–1805: a Critical Report*
Authors: Crimmin P. K. 
Published: March 2003

Abstract
The principal subject of this report is the administration of the British Mediterranean fleet, 1796–8 and 1803–5. Fifteen volumes of documents in the Library of the Wellcome Institute contain official returns and reports to Admiral Nelson by his officers. They provide the foundation on which strategy was planned and campaigns waged and form the administrative base which sustained the more visible victorious battlefleet. The subjects range from the state of ships' stores and problems of convoys and transports to the health, food and clothing of seamen. Such information enables naval historians to evaluate the practical effects of major actions and daily routine.
A Venture in ‘The Caverns of Intrigue’: The Conspiracy Against Lord Curzon and his Foreign Policy, 1922–3
Authors: Wilson K. M. 
Published: March 2003

Abstract
This article investigates the opposition, both within and without the British cabinet, to Curzon's handling of relations with France and Germany in the early nineteen‐twenties, opposition which came to a head in the form of a conspiracy to remove him as Foreign Secretary in October 1923. The chief conspirators are identified as the editor of the Morning Post, a senior Foreign Office official—and Lord Derby. The relationship to this conspiracy of the French premier and of several British cabinet ministers, including the prime minister, Baldwin, is a major theme. How Curzon survived, with the help of French documents intercepted by the British intelligence agencies, is part of the conclusion. The article adds to what is known of the making of British foreign policy at this time, and is largely based upon material in the papers of H.A. Gwynne and in the archive of the Morning Post newspaper which has not been utilized by anyone else.
British intervention in Portugal, 1793–1808
Authors: Robson Martin 
Published: March 2003

Abstract
In the summer of 1808 a British army was dispatched to Portugal with orders to expel French troops from Lisbon and then to defend the country against further attacks. Thus commenced a six-year commitment to the region. The history of British involvement in the Peninsular War is familiar to many through the works of William Napier, Charles Oman and Sir John Fortescue. However, a point often overlooked is that although the operation began with limited aims, it evolved into a major, long-term financial and military commitment, which was not typical of wider British strategy in this period or of traditional British intervention in Portuguese affairs. It is the intention here to examine the period 1793–1808, when a succession of both tory and whig governments intervened in Portugal with aims that were defensive, limited in scope and characterized by the use of maritime-based expeditionary forces.
‘Carleton and Buckingham: The Quest for Office’ Revisited
Authors: Hill Robert , Lockyer Roger 
Published: March 2003

AbstractIn 1970 John Barcroft produced an influential article in which he claimed that the ambition of Dudley Carleton to attain high office only moved towards fruition after Carleton presented the duke of Buckingham with a massive bribe in the shape of a marble chimneypiece for his principal London residence, York House. This is too simplistic a view, but it serves as a reminder that the role of works of art in the early Stuart patronage system has not so far been the subject of detailed scrutiny. The present article is intended as a case study of a particular instance. It argues that Carleton used works of art as part of a long‐term strategy to keep Buckingham aware of his existence, but that he did not become a serious contender for high office until the duke moved towards an anti‐Spanish stance that was close to Carleton's own position. In other words, it was changing political circumstances and not the presentation of objets d’art, however welcome these were in their own right, which transformed the ambassador's prospects.
The Making of a New ‘Welsh Metropolis’: Science, Leisure and Industry in Early Nineteenth‐Century Swansea
Authors: Miskell Louise 
Published: March 2003

AbstractThis article provides a case study of the role of an urban institution in enhancing town status and identity in the first half of the nineteenth century. During this period, Swansea's scientific institution played a key part in establishing the reputation of the town both within Wales and beyond, as an important commercial and cultural centre, rivalling Bristol's well‐established sphere of influence in south Wales by the middle of the nineteenth century. The Swansea example demonstrates that, even in a relatively small town, a successful urban institution could help enhance urban status and extend regional influence. This is of particular significance in the Welsh context given the smaller demographic size of the principal Welsh towns compared to those in England and Scotland in the first half of the nineteenth century. In focusing on the role of an urban institution it also highlights an important area of common experience between Welsh patterns of urbanization and those elsewhere in Britain, where civic and cultural institutions were also to the fore in promoting urban identity.
Talking Back to Frida: Houses of Emotional Mestizaje
Authors: Becker Marjorie 
Published: March 2003

“Talking Back to Frida: Houses of Emotional Mestizaje” is, in part, a historical meditation on the silencing of three women, Frida Kahlo, María Enríquez, a Mexican woman who was sexually assaulted in 1924, and me. Written in an innovative historical fashion that joins techniques drawn from fiction, journalism, and history, the article attempts to understand specific assaults on women’s voices by drawing readers into the historical worlds of the protagonists. “Talking Back” also seeks to respond to Hans Kellner’s incisive theoretical challenge: how do historians’ personal histories affect their historical choices?The article’s organization depends on my understanding of language, color, and physicality, as the emotional architecture of the Deep Southern and Mexican places tend to both enclose and partially free the protagonists. The essay begins by leading the reader into my own past in the Deep South, a past where German Jewish and Russian Jewish relatives engaged in a cultural battle over form, personal style, and will. Confronting a German Jewish world where only things—never feelings—seemed to matter, I found solace in the friendship of a black servant. That friendship, in turn, helped prompt a particularly empathic historical voice.The southern section is followed by a journey into Frida Kahlo’s Mexican world. In that world, Kahlo’s severe physical pain and solitude construct inner and outer universes. The people who populate these worlds are friends, lovers, husband, and the Mexican poor. Kahlo’s artistic renditions of these people reflect, the article suggests, both the depth of her love for them and a tendency to use them in response to her despair.Finally, “Talking Back” reconstructs the world of María Enríquez, a Michoacán peasant woman assaulted in public by her former boyfriend. Abandoned by friend, sister, and Catholic women on the way to church, Enríquez develops a voice laced with generosity, cultural insight, and a rare self–possession.
Sollbruchstelle: Deep Uncertainty and the Design of Monetary Institutions
Authors: Lohmann Susanne 
Published: March 2003

Sollbruchstelle: this German engineering term translates as ‘part that is supposed to break down’. It stands for that part of a machine that is deliberately designed to be weaker, and less costly, than other parts of the machine so that it, rather than the more expensive parts, takes the hit when the machine comes under stress. A breakdown thus comes with little collateral damage and is fixed quickly and at low cost.??This paper applies the idea of Sollbruchstelle to the design of fiat monetary institutions. Well‐designed institutions are credibly committed to follow a sound monetary policy. But they are also flexible in the face of deep uncertainty. They respond to novel economic and social developments as well as shifting understandings of the way the macroeconomy works. When necessary, they accommodate political pressures, renege on promises, and change their institutional stripes. As they become obsolete, they go gently into that good night – and if they must break down, they do so forgivingly.