Clustering of vascular aging manifestations and incident cardiovascular events. The Paris Prospective Study III
Authors: Empana J , Van Sloten T V S , Climie R C , Bruno R M B , Abouquateb M A , Danchin N D , Bianchini E B , Faita F F , Boutouyrie P B , Jouven X J 
Published: November 2023

Abstract

Background
Vascular aging is a key contributor to cardiovascular disease (CVD). Manifestations of vascular aging are heterogeneous and include atherosclerosis, arterial stiffening, increased arterial wall stress and arterial diameter enlargement. These manifestations have different pathophysiological mechanisms and likely require different prevention strategies. How the different vascular aging manifestations co-exist, or cluster, at the individual level and the association of any such clusters with incident CVD is unknown.

Purpose
To examine how vascular aging manifestations cluster and whether any such clusters are associated with incident CVD.

Methods
In the Paris Prospective Study III, a French community-based prospective study on novel determinants of CVD, 10,157 participants underwent a high-resolution carotid echotracking (Artlab, Esaote) between 2008 and 2012, and were thereafter monitored every two years for CVD events up to end 2020 . Hospitalized stroke and coronary heart disease (CHD) events were validated after the review of all medical records. Hierarchical clustering analysis was employed to identify patterns of vascular aging. Hazard ratios (HRs) were quantified in Cox models.

Results
The study sample included 8,360 participants (39% women, mean age 59.6 years) without prevalent CVD. Three clusters of vascular aging manifestations were identified:
- Cluster 1 included 3,995 (47.8%) participants and was characterized by low prevalence of carotid plaques, low carotid intima-media thickness (IMT), low carotid artery stiffness, small carotid diameter and low carotid circumferential wall stress (healthy vascular aging cluster).
- Cluster 2 included 2,109 (25.2%) participants and was characterized by high carotid artery stiffness and high carotid circumferential wall stress (arterial stiffness vascular aging cluster).
- Cluster 3 included 2,256 (27.0%) participants, and was characterized by high prevalence of carotid plaques and high carotid IMT(atherosclerosis vascular aging cluster).
After a median follow-up of 8.5 years, 108 incident stroke events, 218 CHD events and 192 deaths occurred. Compared with cluster 1, cluster 2 (HR 1.76, [95%CI, 1.06-2.94]), but not cluster 3 (HR 1.57, [0.94-2.62]), was associated with a higher risk of stroke. In addition, compared to cluster 1, cluster 3 (HR 1.53, [1.08-2.16]), but not cluster 2 (HR 1.38, [95% CI, 0.96-1.98]), was associated with higher risk of CHD. Both cluster 2 and 3 were associated with higher all-cause mortality (HR for cluster 2: 1.50, [1.02-2.21]; HR for cluster 3: 1.48, [1.01-2.17]). Internal validation using bootstrapping methods (n=1000 samples) provided consistent findings.

Conclusion
The simultaneous analysis of carotid-echotracking vascular aging parameters identified three patterns of vascular aging that are differentially associated with CHD and stroke in the community.Carotid properties by clustersKM survival curves by clusters