Optimism, Sociability, and the Risk of Future Suicide Attempt among U.S. Army Soldiers
Authors: Naifeh James A , Ursano Robert J , Stein Murray B , Mash Holly B. Herberman , Aliaga Pablo A , Fullerton Carol S , Shor Rachel , Kao Tzu-Cheg , Sampson Nancy A , Kessler Ronald C 
Published: November 2023

ABSTRACT

Introduction
Most research on suicide attempts among U.S. service members has been focused on risk factors that occur during service. There is an important gap in our understanding of premilitary factors, such as personality characteristics, that may be associated with future suicide attempt risk during service. Of particular importance is identifying risk factors for the 1/3 of suicide attempters who never receive a mental health diagnosis (MH-Dx)–and therefore are not identified as having a mental health problem in the military healthcare system–prior to their suicide attempt.

Materials and Methods
Using two components of the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers, we examined the association of personality facets from the Tailored Adaptive Personality Assessment System, a computerized instrument administered prior to entering service, with medically documented suicide attempts during service. A 2010–2016 sample of historical administrative records from U.S. Regular Army enlisted soldiers with complete data on 11 commonly administered Tailored Adaptive Personality Assessment System facets was examined using a series of logistic regression analyses to identify the facets associated with future suicide attempt. Significant facets were then applied to data from a longitudinal cohort study of 11,288 soldiers surveyed upon entering basic combat training and followed via administrative records for their first 48 months of service. This research was approved by the Institutional Review Boards at the collaborating institutions.

Results
Analysis of the historical administrative data (87.0% male, 61.6% White non-Hispanic), found that low Optimism (odds ratio (OR) = 1.2 [95% CI = 1.0-1.4]) and high/low (vs. moderate) Sociability (OR = 1.3 [95%CI = 1.1-1.6]) were associated with suicide attempt after adjusting for other univariable-significant facets and socio-demographic and service-related variables. When examined in the longitudinal survey cohort, low Optimism (OR = 1.7 [95% CI = 1.1-2.4]) and high/low (vs. moderate) Sociability (OR = 1.7 [95% CI = 1.1-2.5]) were still associated with increased odds of documented suicide attempt during service, even after adjusting for each other, socio-demographic and service-related variables, and medically documented MH-Dx. Mental health diagnosis had a significant two-way interaction with Optimism (F = 5.27, p = 0.0236) but not Sociability. Stratified analyses indicated that low Optimism was associated with suicide attempt among soldiers without, but not among those with, a MH-Dx. Interactions of Optimism and Sociability with gender were nonsignificant. In the full model, population attributable risk proportions for Optimism and Sociability were 15.0% and 18.9%, respectively. Optimism and Sociability were differentially associated with suicide attempt risk across time in service.

Conclusions
Optimism and Sociability, assessed prior to entering U.S. Army service, are consistently associated with future suicide attempt during service, even after adjusting for other important risk factors. While Sociability is equally associated with suicide attempt among those with and without a MH-Dx, Optimism is specifically associated with suicide attempt among soldiers not identified in the mental healthcare system. Risk differences across time in service suggest that Optimism and Sociability interact with stressors and contextual factors in particular developmental and Army career phases.