bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Explaining the Rate Spread on Corporate Bonds
Authors: Elton Edwin J. , Gruber Martin J. , Agrawal Deepak , Mann Christopher 
Published: March 2003

ABSTRACTThe purpose of this article is to explain the spread between rates on corporate and government bonds. We show that expected default accounts for a surprisingly small fraction of the premium in corporate rates over treasuries. While state taxes explain a substantial portion of the difference, the remaining portion of the spread is closely related to the factors that we commonly accept as explaining risk premiums for common stocks. Both our time series and cross‐sectional tests support the existence of a risk premium on corporate bonds.
Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets
Authors: Longin François , Solnik Bruno 
Published: March 2003

ABSTRACTTesting the hypothesis that international equity market correlation increases in volatile times is a difficult exercise and misleading results have often been reported in the past because of a spurious relationship between correlation and volatility. Using “extreme value theory” to model the multivariate distribution tails, we derive the distribution of extreme correlation for a wide class of return distributions. Empirically, we reject the null hypothesis of multivariate normality for the negative tail, but not for the positive tail. We also find that correlation is not related to market volatility per se but to the market trend. Correlation increases in bear markets, but not in bull markets.
Profitability of Momentum Strategies: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations
Authors: Jegadeesh Narasimhan , Titman Sheridan 
Published: March 2003

ABSTRACTThis paper evaluates various explanations for the profitability of momentum strategies documented in Jegadeesh and Titman (1993). The evidence indicates that momentum profits have continued in the 1990s, suggesting that the original results were not a product of data snooping bias. The paper also examines the predictions of recent behavioral models that propose that momentum profits are due to delayed overreactions that are eventually reversed. Our evidence provides support for the behavioral models, but this support should be tempered with caution.
Equity Premia as Low as Three Percent? Evidence from Analysts' Earnings Forecasts for Domestic and International Stock Markets
Authors: Claus James , Thomas Jacob 
Published: March 2003

ABSTRACTThe returns earned by U.S. equities since 1926 exceed estimates derived from theory, from other periods and markets, and from surveys of institutional investors. Rather than examine historic experience, we estimate the equity premium from the discount rate that equates market valuations with prevailing expectations of future flows. The accounting flows we project are isomorphic to projected dividends but use more available information and narrow the range of reasonable growth rates. For each year between 1985 and 1998, we find that the equity premium is around three percent (or less) in the United States and five other markets.
LAPM: A Liquidity‐Based Asset Pricing Model
Authors: Holmström Bengt , Tirole Jean 
Published: March 2003

ABSTRACTThe intertemporal CAPM predicts that an asset's price is equal to the expectation of the product of the asset's payoff and a representative consumer's intertemporal marginal rate of substitution. This paper develops an alternative approach to asset pricing based on corporations' desire to hoard liquidity. Our corporate finance approach suggests new determinants of asset prices such as the distribution of wealth within the corporate sector and between the corporate sector and the consumers. Also, leverage ratios, capital adequacy requirements, and the composition of savings affect the corporate demand for liquid assets and, thereby, interest rates.
On the Perils of Financial Intermediaries Setting Security Prices: The Mutual Fund Wild Card Option
Authors: Chalmers John M. R. , Edelen Roger M. , Kadlec Gregory B. 
Published: March 2003

ABSTRACTEconomic distortions can arise when financial claims trade at prices set by an intermediary rather than direct negotiation between principals. We demonstrate the problem in a specific context, the exchange of open‐end mutual fund shares. Mutual funds typically set fund share price (NAV) using an algorithm that fails to account for nonsynchronous trading in the fund's underlying securities. This results in predictable changes in NAV, which lead to exploitable trading opportunities. A modification to the pricing algorithm that corrects for nonsynchronous trading eliminates much of the predictability. However, there are many other potential sources of distortion when intermediaries set prices.
Internal Monitoring Mechanisms and CEO Turnover: A Long‐Term Perspective
Authors: Huson Mark R. , Parrino Robert , Starks Laura T. 
Published: March 2003

ABSTRACTWe report evidence on chief executive officer (CEO) turnover during the 1971 to 1994 period. We find that the nature of CEO turnover activity has changed over time. The frequencies of forced CEO turnover and outside succession both increased. However, the relation between the likelihood of forced CEO turnover and firm performance did not change significantly from the beginning to the end of the period we examine, despite substantial changes in internal governance mechanisms. The evidence also indicates that changes in the intensity of the takeover market are not associated with changes in the sensitivity of CEO turnover to firm performance.
Managerial Ownership, the Method of Payment for Acquisitions, and Executive Job Retention
Authors: Ghosh Aloke , Ruland William 
Published: March 2003

ABSTRACTThis study investigates how acquiring and target firm managers' preferences for control rights motivate the payment for corporate acquisitions. We expect that managers of target firms who value influence in combined firms will prefer to receive stock. One reason top managers desire influence is to enhance their chances of retaining jobs in the combined firm. Our analysis shows a strong, positive association between managerial ownership of target firms and the likelihood of acquisitions for stock. We also find that managers of target firms are more likely to retain jobs in combined firms when they receive stock rather than cash.
Chronological and Stylistic Aspects of Second Language Acquisition of Consonant Clusters
Authors: Major Roy C. 
Published: March 2003

A major focus in second language acquisition (SLA) studies for the past two or three decades has been the role that universal factors play in acquisition. Prior to then, the influence of transfer had been well documented, since the early work of Lado (1957) and even earlier work of Weinreich (1953). However, in 1971 Nemser reported Hungarian learners of English used substitutions that occurred in neither native English nor Hungarian; likewise, Johansson (1973) noted that L2 learners of Swedish produced sounds that occurred in neither Swedish nor the native languages. These nontransfer substitutions have been termed universal developmental variants (part of Universal Grammar [UG]) because they are similar or identical to those occurring in L1 acquisition. Although these substitutions had been well documented, there was no attempt to describe the interrelationship of transfer and developmental factors until Major (1986a, 1987) proposed the Ontogeny Model (OM) to describe a relationship of these two factors for both chronology and style. The present study further tests this model, the data largely supporting the claims for chronology but not for style. This work is significant because it rigorously tests claims concerning the interaction of transfer and universal factors, and although the claims for stylistic variation were not supported, the study provides extensive data with research implications for variation studies. The importance of variation in SLA has been pointed out by numerous researchers, including Tarone (1988), and in a recently published volume on variation in SLA (Bayley & Preston, 1996), which quite significantly contains a chapter by Labov.Although about a dozen years old, the OM has implications for an ongoing debate in SLA (not restricted to phonology): whether UG is or is not accessible to the learner. The model predicts that at early stages of acquisition, UG will not play a major role because the influence of transfer is strong and the influence of developmental factors (subsumed under UG) is minimal.According to the model, however, at later stages of acquisition the role of UG will increase because transfer decreases and developmental factors decrease.The OM has also had an impact on very recent work in L2 phonology, for example, Broselow, Chen, and Wang (1998) and Hancin‐Bhatt and Bhatt (1997), who employ Optimality Theory (Prince and Smolensky, 1993). From an Optimality Theory framework, Hancin‐Bhatt and Bhatt discuss the interaction of transfer and developmental factors and state: “In so doing, we can begin to give a linguistic‐theoretic interpretation to Major's (1986, 1987, 1994) ontogeny model” (p. 368).
1998 Annual Meeting Plenary Session: Assessing and Managing Risks in a Democratic Society
Authors: Charnley Gail , Graham John D. , Kennedy, Jr. Robert F. , Shogren Jason 
Published: March 2003

The theme of one of the plenary sessions held at the 1998 annual meeting of the Society for Risk Analysis, ‘Assessing and Managing Risks in a Democratic Society,’ was chosen to reflect the current debate about the best ways to integrate social, political, economic, and technical issues into fair risk management decisions. In the papers presented here, the three plenary speakers provide their perspectives on how environmental risk management decision making is—or should be—informed by democratic processes.John D. Graham Making Sense of RiskRobert F. Kennedy, Jr. Risk, Democracy, and the EnvironmentJason Shogren Markets to Master Health and Environmental RiskAudience Questions and Answers
Sorting Out the Roles of Research in the Improvement of Practice
Authors: Gersten Russell 
Published: March 2003

This paper discusses the effectiveness of research‐based educational approaches on classroom practice. In order to help educators maximize benefits from research in improving practice, it is important to inform them of the nature and roles of research.This essay begins by discussing current cynicism regarding the usefulness of research‐based strategies in the field of education. Because of the large body of conflicting “research‐based” information, many educators are finding themselves confused and alienated by the phrase “research shows.” Using examples of high‐quality research that utilizes diverse methodologies, a framework is presented for thinking about various types of research and their implications.
An Analysis of the Quality of Internet Life Insurance Advice
Authors: Dorfman Mark S. , Adelman Saul W. 
Published: March 2003

AbstractThis article analyzes the quality of the life insurance recommendations generated by Internet Web sites. The quality of a Web site's recommendations is measured by comparing how closely the recommendations match two benchmarks chosen by the authors. The authors submitted four relatively simple scenarios to 48 Web sites offering advice on how much insurance is appropriate in given circumstances. The article presents several statistical measures of the wide variation in advice offered by these Web sites, and it suggests several explanations for this variation. Statistically, the Web site recommendations differed from the authors’ chosen benchmarks, but did not differ by the type of organization maintaining the Web site.
Books Received
Authors: Mizen Richard 
Published: March 2003

Includes brief reviews of the following books: Analytical Psychology Segal, R. A., Jung on Mythology.Stevens, A., An Intelligent Person's Guide to Psychotherapy.Von Franz, M‐L., Archetypal Patterns in Fairy Tales. Psychoanalysis Geissman, C. & Geissmann, P., A History of Child Psychoanalysis. Psychotherapy Lomas, P., Personal Disorder and Family Life.
The alienness of the unconscious: on Laplanche’s theory of seduction
Authors: Rotmann Michael 
Published: March 2003

In this paper the author uses a clinical example as a focus for an exploration of his thesis that the parent is the ‘other’ who implants his or her unconscious message into the child by means of seduction. As the other is alien, the unconscious of the child cannot any longer be considered the centre of the person but is decentred by the implanted alienness. The author draws on Laplanche’s seduction theory to argue that the unconscious message of seduction by the other is exclusively sexual and that it cannot be translated nor symbolized because an interpretative system shared by subject and object is lacking.The decentred alterity of the unconscious allows for comparison with a third object and hence a structural triangulation of the mind which is a prerequisite for symbolization. The role of the analyst in permitting a transference enactment and so facilitating the beginning of sexual symbolization is discussed in relation to the clinical example given at the start of the paper.
Book Reviews
Authors: Crouch Colin 
Published: March 2003

Books reviewed:Alan Campbell, Nina Fishman and John McIlroy (eds.), British Trade Unions and Industrial Politics; Volume One: The Post‐war Compromise, 1945‐‐64; Volume Two: The High Tide of Trade Unionism, 1964‐79Robert E. Lane, The Loss of Happiness in Market DemocraciesPeter Self, Rolling Back the Market: Economic Dogma and Political ChoiceAnne Phillips, Which Equalities Matter?Royden J. Harrison, The Life and Times of Sidney and Beatrice Webb, 1858‐‐1905: The Formative YearsTim Judah, Kosovo: War and RevengeMichael J. Hogan (ed.), The Ambiguous Legacy: US Foreign Relations in the ‘American Century’Eric Roll, Where Are We Going? The Next Twenty YearsDennis Smith and Sue Wright (eds.), Whose Europe? The Turn Towards DemocracyMeg Russell, Reforming the House of Lords: Lessons from OverseasThe Wakeham Report, A House for the Future: The Royal Commission on the Reform of the House of LordsAnthony D. Smith, Myths and Memories of the NationPhil Mullan, The Imaginary Time Bomb: Why an Ageing Population is not a Social Problem
R&D and technology purchase through licence agreements: complementary strategies and complementary assets
Authors: Lowe Julian , Taylor Peter 
Published: March 2003

This paper reports on a major UK‐wide investigation into the role of inward technology licensing and in‐house R&D as alternative and complementary strategies in new product and process development.The role of licensing in the technology strategy of the firm can be viewed as the ‘buy’ in the context of ‘make or buy’ technology decisions. Such technology purchases may be made for a number of reasons including insufficient in‐house resources or gaps in R&D provision stemming from small scale, risk, low investment in research or diversification away from existing research competencies. However, technology markets might have substantial information imperfections and transaction costs. The tasks of finding a technology provider, transferring the technology inwards and absorbing it into commercially successful new products and processes, can inhibit the use of licensing agreements for technology acquisition. This research, using a sample of 128 manufacturing companies (including both licensees and non‐licensees), examines some key propositions around the use of technology licensing. Data was collected on technology strategies, complementary assets, internal organisation and market structure. Analysis of the data suggests that strategies of ‘buy and make’ are complements rather than alternatives, and that extensive use of licensing requires substantial complementary assets to be in place. The nature of product‐market positioning was found to be a significant driver of technology strategy, with firms that pursue product differentiation being the most likely to license. Whilst

a priori it might be expected that internal organisation would influence technology strategy, this study was only able to provide weak support for this.
Recent Books in ... New Testament Studies
Authors: Carleton Paget James 
Published: March 2003

Books reviewedGerd Lüdemann, Virgin Birth? The Real Story of Mary and Her Son JesusC. E. B. Cranfield, On Romans and Other New Testament EssaysJoseph A. Fitzmyer, To Advance the GospelWalter Schmithals The Theology of the First ChristiansWilliam J. Larkin Jr and Joel F. Williams (eds), Mission in the New Testament: An Evangelical Approach
Self‐fulfilling Currency Crises and Central Bank Independence
Authors: Bensaid Bernard , Jeanne Olivier 
Published: March 2003

We develop a model of a fixed exchange rate peg arrangement derived from the Barro–Gordon model of rules versus discretion. It is shown that the fixed peg is vulnerable to self‐fulfilling currency crises in which the unemployment rate increases, the credibility of the rule decreases, but, paradoxically, the reputation of the policy‐maker improves. Delegating monetary policy to an independent central banker does not prevent this type of crisis from arising, and can even make it more costly. JEL Classification:
F3; F4
Performance Standards and Incentive Pay in Agency Contracts
Authors: Sherstyuk Katerina 
Published: March 2003

When the presence of limited liability restricts a principal from imposing monetary fines on an agent in case of poor performance, the principal might use other kinds of punishment threats to deter the agent from shirking. We show that under the optimal contract in this case, the principal sets a performance standard and punishes the agent if the standard is not met, but rewards the agent on a profit‐sharing basis if the standard is significantly exceeded. The optimal choice of performance standards for such contracts is discussed. It is shown that punishment threats, although inefficient, often help the principal to discipline the agent. JEL classification: D82
Repeated Interaction and the Public Provision of Private Goods
Authors: Thum Claudio , Thum Marcel 
Published: March 2003

The literature suggests that governments can use in‐kind transfers to design efficient and targeted redistribution schemes if individual incomes are not directly observable. We investigate the extent to which the self‐selection property of in‐kind transfers carries through if redistributive transfers are made repeatedly. In a two‐period setting, the government may gain information about the individuals' incomes in the first period and exploit this information for making targeted transfers in the second‐period. This, however, also triggers changes in the individuals' behavior. If the government can commit to its future policy, the least cost policy may involve randomization between cash and in‐kind transfers. Without commitment, the dynamic setting works against the government's interest. It may no longer be able to use in‐kind transfers to generate information about the individuals' types. JEL classification: H42; H2
Is the Efficiency Wage Efficient? The Social Norm and Organizational Corruption
Authors: Chang Juin‐jen , Lai Ching‐chong 
Published: March 2003

The effectiveness of efficiency wage incentives is often jeopardized by perverse organizational corruption. We model organizational corruption as a phenomenon of social interaction and relate the substantial psychological role characterizing the social norm to the corruption problem. We find that if the status quo bribery rate within the firm is high, social norms can no longer serve as a sufficient sanction against a corrupt supervisor; pandemic organizational corruption tends to generate a critical mass effect—the snowball effect—which intensifies the corruption effect. This intensified effect, due to the snowballing character of social norms, may more than offset the usual incentive effect of wages, resulting in more widespread shirking in the firm. JEL classification: D82; J41
Measuring Structural Unemployment: NAWRU Estimates in the Nordic Countries
Authors: Holden Steinar , Nymoen Ragnar 
Published: March 2003

The non‐accelerating wage rate of unemployment (NAWRU indicator), used by the OECD as a measure of structural unemployment, has risen for the four Nordic countries Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. In this paper we present stable empirical wage equations for the same countries over the period 1964–1994, in sharp contrast to the increased NAWRU estimates. The instability of the NAWRU estimates is an artefact of a misspecified underlying wage equation, and not due to instability in wage setting itself. JEL classification: E24; E31; E64; J51
Optimal Degrees of Transparency in Monetary Policymaking
Authors: Jensen Henrik 
Published: March 2003

According to most academics and policymakers, transparency in monetary policymaking is desirable. I examine this proposition in a small theoretical model emphasizing forward–looking private sector behavior. Transparency makes it easier for price setters to infer the central bank’s future policy intentions, thereby making current inflation more responsive to policy actions. This induces the central bank to pay more attention to inflation rather than output gap stabilization. Then, transparency may be disadvantageous. It may actually be a policy–distorting straitjacket if the central bank enjoys low–inflation credibility, and there is need for active monetary stabilization policy. JEL classification: E42; E52; F58
Confidence and Likelihood*
Authors: SCHWEDER TORE , HJORT NILS LID 
Published: March 2003

Confidence intervals for a single parameter are spanned by quantiles of a confidence distribution, and one‐sidedp‐values are cumulative confidences. Confidence distributions are thus a unifying format for representing frequentist inference for a single parameter. The confidence distribution, which depends on data, is exact (unbiased) when its cumulative distribution function evaluated at the true parameter is uniformly distributed over the unit interval. A new version of the Neyman–Pearson lemma is given, showing that the confidence distribution based on the natural statistic in exponential models with continuous data is less dispersed than all other confidence distributions, regardless of how dispersion is measured. Approximations are necessary for discrete data, and also in many models with nuisance parameters. Approximate pivots might then be useful. A pivot based on a scalar statistic determines a likelihood in the parameter of interest along with a confidence distribution. This proper likelihood is reduced of all nuisance parameters, and is appropriate for meta‐analysis and updating of information. The reduced likelihood is generally different from the confidence density.Confidence distributions and reduced likelihoods are rooted in Fisher–Neyman statistics. This frequentist methodology has many of the Bayesian attractions, and the two approaches are briefly compared. Concepts, methods and techniques of this brand of Fisher–Neyman statistics are presented. Asymptotics and bootstrapping are used to find pivots and their distributions, and hence reduced likelihoods and confidence distributions. A simple form of inverting bootstrap distributions to approximate pivots of the abc type is proposed. Our material is illustrated in a number of examples and in an application to multiple capture data for bowhead whales.
Limits of the Literal: Five Recent Books About Metaphor
Authors: Gwyn Richard 
Published: March 2003

Charles Forceville. Pictorial Metaphor in Advertising.Raymond W. Gibbs Jr. The Poetics of Mind: Figurative Thought, Language and Understanding.Andrew Ortony (ed.). Metaphor and Thought. (2nd edition)Gerard Steen. Understanding Metaphor in Literature: an Empirical Approach.Roger M. White. The Structure of Metaphor