bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Generalized discriminant analysis based on distances
Authors: Anderson Marti J. , Robinson John 
Published: July 2003

SummaryThis paper describes a method of generalized discriminant analysis based on a dissimilarity matrix to test for differences in a priori groups of multivariate observations. Use of classical multidimensional scaling produces a low‐dimensional representation of the data for which Euclidean distances approximate the original dissimilarities. The resulting scores are then analysed using discriminant analysis, giving tests based on the canonical correlations. The asymptotic distributions of these statistics under permutations of the observations are shown to be invariant to changes in the distributions of the original variables, unlike the distributions of the multi‐response permutation test statistics which have been considered by other workers for testing differences among groups. This canonical method is applied to multivariate fish assemblage data, with Monte Carlo simulations to make power comparisons and to compare theoretical results and empirical distributions. The paper proposes classification based on distances. Error rates are estimated using cross‐validation.
Towards optimal regression estimation in sample surveys
Authors: Berger Yves G. , Tirari Mohammed E.H. , Tillé Yves 
Published: July 2003

SummaryThe Montanari (1987) regression estimator is optimal when the population regression coefficients are known. When the coefficients are estimated, the Montanari estimator is not optimal and can be extremely volatile. Using design‐based arguments, this paper proposes a simpler and better alternative to the Montanari estimator that is also optimal when the population regression coefficients are known. Moreover, it can be easily implemented as it involves standard weighted least squares. The estimator is applicable under single stage stratified sampling with unequal probabilities within each stratum.
On the convergence of moving average processes under dependent conditions
Authors: Baek Jong‐Il , Kim Tae‐Sung , Liang Han‐Ying 
Published: July 2003

SummaryThis paper considers a moving average process for a sequence of negatively associated random variables. It discusses the complete convergence of such a moving average process under suitable conditions. These results generalize and complement earlier results on independent random variables. Also, a conjecture for the case of a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables is resolved and its moment condition weakened.
A multivariate parallelogram and its application to multivariate trimmed means
Authors: Horng Shiau Jyh‐Jen , Chen Lin‐An 
Published: July 2003

SummaryThis paper introduces a multivariate parallelogram that can play the role of the univariate quantile in the location model, and uses it to define a multivariate trimmed mean. It assesses the asymptotic efficiency of the proposed multivariate trimmed mean by its asymptotic variance and by Monte Carlo simulation.
A note on the correlation structure of transformed Gaussian random fields
Authors: De Oliveira Victor 
Published: July 2003

SummaryTransformed Gaussian random fields can be used to model continuous time series and spatial data when the Gaussian assumption is not appropriate. The main features of these random fields are specified in a transformed scale, while for modelling and parameter interpretation it is useful to establish connections between these features and those of the random field in the original scale. This paper provides evidence that for many ‘normalizing’ transformations the correlation function of a transformed Gaussian random field is not very dependent on the transformation that is used. Hence many commonly used transformations of correlated data have little effect on the original correlation structure. The property is shown to hold for some kinds of transformed Gaussian random fields, and a statistical explanation based on the concept of parameter orthogonality is provided. The property is also illustrated using two spatial datasets and several ‘normalizing’ transformations. Some consequences of this property for modelling and inference are also discussed.
Non‐parametric group sequential designs in randomized clinical trials
Authors: Bandyopadhyay Uttam , Biswas Atanu 
Published: July 2003

SummaryThis paper examines some non‐parametric group sequential designs applicable for randomized clinical trials, for comparing two continuous treatment effects taking the observations in matched pairs, or applicable in event‐based analysis. Two inverse binomial sampling schemes are considered, of which the second one is an adaptive data‐dependent design. These designs are compared with some fixed sample size competitors. Power and expected sample sizes are calculated for the proposed procedures.
Estimating the Impact of WTO and Domestic Reforms on the Indian Cotton and Textile Sectors: a General‐Equilibrium Approach
Authors: Elbehri Aziz , Hertel Thomas , Martin Will 
Published: July 2003

AbstractThe agreement to abolish the quotas on textiles and clothing introduced under the Multi‐fiber Arrangement (MFA) will create a new and much more competitive world market for India's exports of textiles and clothing. India's inefficient and costly policies, such as cotton export quotas, the hank yarn obligation, and the restrictive policies on foreign investment that have held back productivity in the Indian apparel sector, will impose serious costs. The authors consider the implications of reforming these policies in an open trading environment using a multiregion, applied general‐equilibrium model. They find that the costs of these policies to India increase substantially following abolition of the MFA; the benefits to India from domestic reforms are considerably enhanced when there is global free trade in textiles and apparel.
Structural Change and Economic Growth in China
Authors: Fan Shenggen , Zhang Xiaobo , Robinson Sherman 
Published: July 2003

AbstractThis study develops a new analytical framework to account for sources of rapid economic growth in China. The traditional Solow approach is expanded to include another source of economic growth—structural change. The empirical results show that structural change has contributed to growth significantly by reallocating resources from low‐productivity sectors to high‐productivity sectors. It is found that the returns to capital investment in both agricultural production and rural enterprises are much higher than those in urban sectors, indicating underinvestment in rural areas. On the other hand, labor productivity in the agricultural sector remains low, a result of the still large surpluses of labor in the sector. Therefore, further development of rural enterprises and an increase in labor flow among sectors and across regions are key to improvements in overall economic efficiency.
Toothless Tigers? East Asian Economic Growth from 1960 to 1990
Authors: Grier Robin 
Published: July 2003

AbstractThe author studies East Asian economic performance relative to the experience of a sample of rich, industrialized countries. On combining the coefficients from an augmented Solow model of growth for a sample of industrialized countries with the actual levels of factor accumulation in East Asia, no evidence is found that the region as a whole is over‐achieving. Only Hong Kong and Taiwan can be characterized as over‐achievers. Further, Indonesia and Thailand (when income growth is measured in per‐worker terms) are actually significant under‐achievers, growing slower than forecasted growth in every period.
Transition Problems in Policy Reform: Agricultural Trade Liberalization in India
Authors: Storm Servaas 
Published: July 2003

AbstractWhat will be the domestic growth and distributional effects of agricultural trade liberalization in India? How fast should Indian agriculture be liberalized and what policies should characterize the transition? This paper uses Indian agriculture to analyze medium‐term transition problems that arise in many major economic reforms. Employing a dynamic applied general‐equilibrium model, the paper focuses on the implications for policy design of the absence of efficient capital and labor markets and on the distributional consequences of economic reform in the presence of realistic limits on available intervention instruments. The key finding is that trade adjustment should be supplemented by policies that raise land productivity and, because this takes time, the adjustment should be gradual.
Trade Liberalization and the Efficiency of Firms in Indian Manufacturing
Authors: Driffield Nigel L. , Kambhampati Uma S. 
Published: July 2003

AbstractHas the efficiency of firms in India improved since its liberalization in 1991? The authors attempt to answer this question by analyzing the determinants of firm‐level efficiency in six manufacturing sectors in India while focusing on the effects of liberalization and domestic competition. They find that there was an increase in overall efficiency in the post‐reform period in India in five out of the six sectors. While imports do not seem to improve efficiency, liberalization did increase efficiency in four of the sectors.
Interactions of Informal and Formal Agents in South Asian Rural Credit Markets
Authors: Adams John , Brunner Hans‐Peter , Raymond Frank 
Published: July 2003

AbstractThe paper provides a realistic explanation for the persistently large loan costs in the informal and formal credit markets of South Asia. In the presence of the adverse selection problems that arise from information asymmetries and discrepancies in credit services, price competition in somewhat differentiated products is sufficient to generate the high interest rate convergence observed in Nepalese credit markets. Most prior literature emphasizes collusion as the cause and leads to ineffective entry‐oriented policy prescriptions. The new interpretation stresses the need to reduce information asymmetries, product differentiation, and moral hazard risks, while widening the spatial orbits of agent competition.
Restoring Macroeconomic Stability through Fiscal Adjustment: a Real–Financial CGE Analysis for India
Authors: Naastepad C. W. M. 
Published: July 2003

AbstractDeveloping‐country attempts to regain macroeconomic stability through fiscal adjustment are often unsuccessful in reducing inflation and balance‐of‐payments (BoP) disequilibrium. This paper examines why this may be so in the light of India's experience with stabilization in response to the BoP crisis in 1991. It does so using a novel real–financial computable general‐equilibrium model. Focusing on credit rather than money, the model goes beyond earlier modeling approaches by (1) incorporating credit rationing, (2) recognizing the dual role of credit for working capital and investment, and (3) allowing for switches between credit‐constrained, capacity‐constrained, and demand‐constrained, regimes. The simulations indicate that the macroeconomic effects of monetized deficit reduction differ widely depending on the mode of financing and on initial conditions in real and financial markets. Whenever fiscal reform leads to a squeeze on available working capital credit, deficit reduction will lead to only a limited inflation decline and a modest BoP improvement.
Dynamics of Business Cycles in Asia: Differences and Similarities
Authors: Kim Sunghyun Henry , Kose M. Ayhan , Plummer Michael G. 
Published: July 2003

AbstractThe paper documents the extent of similarities and differences of business cycle characteristics of the Asian countries and compares the cyclical regularities in this region with those of the G‐7 countries. The Asian economies are generally more volatile than the G‐7 countries, but the amplitude of economic fluctuations in the Asian countries tends to decrease over time. Comovement and persistence properties of business cycles in the Asian countries are very similar to those of the G‐7 economies. The authors find that while the patterns of business cycle fluctuations in the main macroeconomic aggregates display important similarities, the behavior of fiscal and monetary policy variables exhibits significant differences across the Asian countries. Moreover, there is a high degree of comovement between the individual country business cycles and different measures of the Asian business cycle, indicating that there is a regional business cycle specific to the Asian countries.
Economic Growth in a Cross‐section of Nonindustrial Countries: Does Colonial Heritage Matter for Africa?
Authors: Price Gregory N. 
Published: July 2003

AbstractThe paper investigates the effects of Sub‐Saharan African colonial heritage on economic growth in a sample of nonindustrial countries. An empirical Solow growth model is specified in a way that allows an examination of whether or not growth in Sub‐Saharan Africa reflects a legacy of extractive colonialization strategies, motivated by a hostile disease environment that resulted in extractive growth‐retarding institutions that persisted after independence. Parameter estimates suggest that the partial effects of extractive institutions engendered by a twentieth century colonial heritage account for approximately 30% of the growth gap between the former colonies in Sub‐Saharan Africa and other nonindustrial countries.
Environmental Protection and Urban Unemployment: Environmental Policy Reform in a Polluted Dualistic Economy
Authors: Daitoh Ichiroh 
Published: July 2003

AbstractThis paper explores sufficient conditions for the welfare‐improving environmental policy reform in the Harris–Todaro economy. A rise in the pollution tax rate in the urban manufacturing has spillover effects on the two labor market distortions: the less‐than‐optimal manufacturing employment and the urban unemployment. If both are weakened the welfare improves. Otherwise, we need to develop an alternative sufficient condition. It is shown that there exists a range of welfare‐improving pollution tax rates, and that it corresponds to the lower values of tax rate. This range may shrink by the wage subsidy policy and the technological change toward less pollution‐intensive techniques.
The Sri Lankan Unemployment Problem Revisited
Authors: Rama Martín 
Published: July 2003

AbstractHigh unemployment in Sri Lanka has been attributed to unrealistic expectations, to queuing for public sector jobs, and to stringent job security regulations. However, the empirical evidence supporting these explanations is weak. This paper analyzes individual records from the 1995 Labor Force Survey, and time series for wages in the formal and informal sectors of the economy. The paper rejects the unrealistic‐expectations hypothesis by comparing the impact of education on the actual wages of those who have a job and on the lowest acceptable wages of the unemployed. But it finds substantial rents associated with jobs in the public sector, and in activities protected by high tariffs or covered by job security regulations. A time‐series analysis of the impact of unemployment on wage increases across sectors suggests that many among the unemployed are waiting for “good” job openings, but are not interested in readily available “bad” jobs.
Oil outlook to 2020
Authors: Shihab‐Eldin Adnan , Hamel Mohamed , Brennand Garry 
Published: July 2003

AbstractOPEC's World Energy Model, OWEM, is used to develop the outlook for oil demand and supply to 2020. The reference case assumes world economic growth averaging 3.3 per cent per annum, while OPEC's Reference Basket of seven crudes remains mainly in the target range of US $22–28 a barrel, in nominal terms. With no additional assumed policy measures, for example, to reduce CO2 emissions, the reference case sees world oil demand rising from 76 million barrels a day in 2000 to 89 mb/d in 2010 and 107 mb/d in 2020. More than three‐quarters of this increase comes from developing countries. The most important sector for a demand increase is transportation, accounting for 60 per cent of the rise globally. On the supply side, the oil resource base is not considered a constraint to satisfying this increase in demand. Non‐OPEC production is expected to continue to grow during the current decade, and to stabilise at a level of 53–55 mb/d beyond 2010. OPEC production is projected to reach 36 mb/d by 2010 and 52 mb/d in 2020.It is important, however, to recognise the uncertainties pervading such an assessment. For example, it is not clear how future economic growth, energy policies and technology will develop over this time horizon, and this inevitably clouds any assessment of future oil demand and supply. In an attempt to quantify one aspect of such uncertainty, other feasible economic growth rates have been assumed, the results of which suggest that OPEC output by 2010 could be 4–5 mb/d higher or lower than in the reference case, while the range is clearly even greater in the years to 2020. Moreover, policy reactions to such developments could compound the uncertainty. On the other hand, such alternative economic growth could place pressure upon oil prices to move outside OPEC's price band of $22–28/b.These uncertainties illustrate the scope of the challenges confronting the oil industry, especially given the long lead‐time nature of oil industry investment, in making economically sound investment decisions that are geared to ensuring that sufficient capacity exists. Market stability, at reasonable and sustainable prices, is a key prerequisite for rising to these challenges, and, since market forces alone are not enough to guarantee this, a broad base of cooperative efforts will be needed to increase the chances of meeting this fundamental objective.
The importance of weighted variables to OPEC's production quota allocation
Authors: Al‐Osaimy Mahmoud , Yahyai Aziz 
Published: July 2003

AbstractThe objective of this paper is to estimate a weighted variables formula that could be used to calculate OPEC quota distribution. Instead of assigning an arbitrary weight to each of the selected variables included in the formula, we estimate weights based on historical data, using regression analysis. Six national characteristics of OPEC Member Countries, related to oil and socio‐economic factors, are considered in the estimation. Time‐series are used from 1982 to 2001, for each OPEC Member Country. The results show that the estimated weights are sensitive to the periods considered in the analysis, as well as the number of variables selected. However, there is no specific optimum way of dealing with the sensitive, complex quota issue.
The efficiency of natural gas futures markets
Authors: Mazighi Ahmed El Hachemi 
Published: July 2003

AbstractRecent experience with the emergence of futures markets for natural gas has led to many questions about the drivers and functioning of these markets. Most often, however, studies lack strong statistical support.The objective of this article is to use some classical statistical tests to check whether futures markets for natural gas (NG) are efficient or not. The problem of NG market efficiency is closely linked to the debate on the value of NG. More precisely, if futures markets were really efficient, then: 1) spot prices would reflect the existence of a market assessment, which is proof that speculation and the manipulation of prices are absent; 2) as a consequence, spot prices could give clear signals about the value of NG; and 3) historical series on spot prices could serve as “clean” benchmarks in the pricing of NG in long‐term contracts. On the whole, since the major share of NG is sold to power producers, the efficiency of futures markets implies that spot prices for NG are driven increasingly by power prices.On the other hand, if futures markets for natural gas fail the efficiency tests, this will reflect: 1) a lack of liquidity in futures markets and/or possibilities of an excess return in the short term; 2) a pass‐through of the seasonality of power demand in the gas market; 3) the existence of a transitory process, before spot markets become efficient and give clear signals about the value of NG.Using monthly data on three segments of the futures markets, our findings show that efficiency is almost completely rejected on both the International Petroleum Exchange in London (UK market) and the New York Mercantile Exchange (US market). On the NYMEX, the principle of “co‐movement” between spot and forward prices seems to be respected. However, the autocorrelation functions of the first differences in the price changes show no randomness of price fluctuations for three segments out of four. Further, both the NYMEX and the IPE fail, with regard to the hypothesis that the forward price is an optimal predictor of the spot price. Consequently, unless we have an increase in the liquidity of spot markets and an increase in the relative share of NG spot trading, futures markets cannot be considered as efficient.
Electric load forecasting for northern Vietnam, using an artificial neural network
Authors: Bhattacharyya Subhes C. , Thanh Le Tien 
Published: July 2003

AbstractThis paper employs a feed‐forward neural network with a back‐propagation algorithm for the short‐term electric load forecasting of daily peak (valley) loads and hourly loads in the northern areas of Vietnam. A large set of data on peak loads, valley loads, hourly loads and temperatures was used to train and calibrate the artificial neural network (ANN). The calibrated network was used for load forecasting. The mean percentage errors for the peak load, valley load, one‐hour‐ahead hourly load and 24‐hour‐ahead hourly load were −1.47%, −3.29%, −2.64% and −4.39%, respectively. These results compare well with similar studies.
Market Effects of Recognition and Disclosure
Authors: Barth Mary E. , Clinch Greg , Shibano Toshi 
Published: July 2003

AbstractOur recognition and disclosure model reveals that price informativeness is determined by the interaction of the qualities of three information sources—the recognized amount, the disclosed information, and the information revealed by price—and accounting expertise acquisition. It also reveals that recognition of an accounting amount alters each of these, thereby affecting price informativeness. Perhaps surprisingly, we find that recognition of a highly unreliable accounting amount, rather than simply disclosing it, can result in greater price informativeness. Likewise, recognition of a highly reliable amount can result in lower price informativeness. Our findings suggest that, because of the effects of aggregation, basing recognition decisions on reliability alone is too simplistic. Reliability relative to relevance is key, not reliability per se. We also find that recognition and disclosure affect the coefficients in a regression of price on accounting amounts.
Capital Gains Taxes and Equity Trading: Empirical Evidence
Authors: Blouin Jennifer L. , Raedy Jana Smith , Shackelford Douglas A. 
Published: July 2003

AbstractIndividual investors have an incentive to defer selling appreciated stock until it qualifies for tax‐favored, long‐term capital gains treatment. Shackelford and Verrecchia [2002] show that these incentives can affect equity trading around public disclosures. This article provides some empirical support for their theory with evidence of price increases and equity constrictions around announcements of quarterly earnings and additions to the S&P 500 index. We find share returns rise and trading volume falls with the incremental taxes saved by deferring the sale of appreciated property. The price increases, however, are temporary, reversing in subsequent trading days. The results are consistent with buyers believing the compensation to sell before long‐term qualification (through higher prices) is less costly than holding an inappropriately weighted portfolio. This finding—that personal capital gains taxes affect equity trading—adds to a growing literature that challenges longstanding assumptions that firm value is independent of shareholders and their taxes.