bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
New Social Movements and the ‘Centri Sociali’ in Milan
Authors: Ruggiero Vincenzo 
Published: March 2003

This paper discusses the social movement known in Italy as the movement of the centri sociali. The empirical material presented relies heavily on the centri sociali operating in Milan. Such material offers the opportunity to revisit issues related to social movement theories. In part one, a brief overview of these theories is sketched, and concepts suggested by both resource mobilisation theorists and new social movements theorists are presented. Attempts to unify the two approaches are also briefly reviewed. In part two, the origin of the centri sociali is traced. Some of the motives and practices inspiring the movement are described as a legacy, though re-elaborated and re-contextualised, of the particularly troubled, if compelling, Italian 1970s. The methodology used for the empirical work undertaken is then presented. Finally, the discussion moves back to social movement theories, against which the movement of the centri sociali is analysed. Here, the utility of some aspects of both resource mobilisation and new social movement theories will be underlined, thus adding a modest, tentative, contribution to previous attempts to elaborate a synthesis between the two approaches.
Neighbourhood in a High Rise, High Density City: Some Observations on Contemporary Hong Kong
Authors: Forrest Ray , La Grange Adrienne , Ngai-Ming Yip 
Published: March 2003

Most of the contemporary literature on the neighbourhood comes from US or European sources where there are sharp contrasts with East Asian cities in terms of the physical form, residential densities and in relation to ideas of community and kinship. This paper reports on a study carried out in Hong Kong which was designed to explore the extent to which western preoccupations with neighbourhood resonate in a high rise, high density Chinese city. As a precursor to a larger scale study interviews were carried out with fifteen individuals in three contrasting locations: a New Town estate, an older, inner city area and a middle class housing estate. The interviews explored inter alia neighbourhood perceptions, ideas of community, sense of belonging and sense of place among contemporary Hong Kong residents. When Yuan Ssu became Confucius' steward he was given nine hundred measures of grain, which he declined. The Master said, ‘Can you not find a use for it in helping the people in your neighbourhood?’ (The Analects, Book VI).
Repeated audit controls
Authors: Moors J. J. A. , Van Der Genugten B. B. , Strijbosch L. W. G. 
Published: March 2003

An important task of auditors is to check whether recorded values are correct. From the number (or total) of the errors found in a sample, upper confidence limits for the fraction (or total) of the errors in the population are calculated by standard methods.Even auditors are human, however, and may make mistakes: errors may remain unnoticed. As administrative rules and regulations are becoming more and more complicated, this kind of auditors' mistakes tends to occur more frequently. Hence, there is an increasing need to check the auditing process itself. This can be achieved by checking a subsample of audited values a second time, now by an error‐free supervisor.This paper investigates the consequences of the (possible) occurrence of errors in this subsample. A simple and analytically attractive model is presented for the number of errors found in this double inspection scheme. Maximum likelihood estimators are derived for the population fraction of errors and the probability of an error remaining unnoticed. Based on that, an exact upper confidence limit for the population fraction of errors is calculated, treating the probability of an unnoticed error as a nuisance parameter. Our method was originally developed during a recent Dutch case study: in a subsample of already audited values one additional error was found by the supervisor. It is shown that, as a consequence, the upper confidence limit is increased very sizeably.
Acquisition of Japanese verbal morphology: Applying processability theory to Japanese
Authors: Kawaguchi Satomi 
Published: March 2003

This paper aims to identify the developmental sequence of Japanese verbal morphology in second language learners' speech production through three longitudinal studies and two cross‐sectional studies as well as to explain this sequence within the framework of Pienemann's Processability Theory (1998). Research questions to be answered include: (1) What is the hypothesised developmental sequence of Japanese verbal morphology in learners' speech production in a L2 context based on Processability Theory? (2) What is the actual developmental sequence of Japanese verbal morphology achieved by the learners? (3) Does this sequence match the hypothesised developmental sequence?Results from the study indicate that verbal morphology in Japanese is acquired in a fixed order and that the order is predictable through identification of the hierarchy of processing prerequisites for sentence production. Such results have a practical and theoretical implication for the research of Japanese as a second language.
Quasiperiodic Solutions in Weakly Nonlinear Gas Dynamics. Part I. Numerical Results in the Inviscid Case
Authors: Shefter Michael , Rosales Rodolfo R. 
Published: March 2003

We exhibit and study a new class of solutions for the one‐dimensional inviscid Euler equations of Gas Dynamics in a bounded domain with reflecting boundary conditions, in the weakly nonlinear regime. These solutions do not present the usual wave breaking leading to shock formation, even though they have nontrivial acoustic components and operate in the nonlinear regime. We also show that these ‘Non Breaking for All Times’ (NBAT) solutions are globally attracting for the long time evolution of the equations.The Euler equations of Gas Dynamics (in the weakly nonlinear regime with reflecting boundary conditions) can be reduced to an inviscid Burgers‐like equation for the acoustic component, with a linear integral self‐coupling term and periodic boundary conditions. The integral term arises as a result of the nonlinear resonant interactions of the sound waves with the entropy variations in the flow. This integral term turns out to be weakly dispersive. The NBAT solutions arise as a result of the interplay of this dispersion with the ‘standard’ wave‐breaking nonlinearity in the Burgers equation.In addition to the previously known weakly nonlinear standing acoustic wave NBAT solutions, we found a family of new, never‐breaking, attracting solutions by direct numerical simulation. These are quasiperiodic in time with two periods. In phase space these solutions lie on a surface ‘centered’ around the standing waves. Only two standing‐wave solutions (the maximum amplitude and the trivial vanishing wave) are in the attracting set. All of the others are quasiperiodic in time with two periods.
Strategies for professional reading in L1 and L2
Authors: Taillefer Gail , Pugh Tony 
Published: March 2003

Reading strategies of future professionals, both in native language (L1) and in one or more foreign languages (L2), have been little explored. Findings from research concerning the transfer of L1 reading strategies to the L2 context are contradictory. Our hypothesis is that relative performance in L1 and L2 reading is associated with two key variables involved in successful L2 reading comprehension: L1 reading proficiency and L2 language competency, the latter being the stronger predictor.39 students were divided into three groups by strength or weakness on each independent variable. Their reading strategies, explored by questionnaire, were compared within and between groups, both in L1 and L2, and were correlated to text recall comprehension scores. Readers strong on both key variables were equally effective in both languages. Strong L1 readers weak in L2 were poor L2 readers but fared better than readers weak on both variables. General reading strategies differentiated efficient readers from poor ones both in L1 and L2, but specific problem‐solving strategies were the main obstacle in L2. Comprehending – the process, or strategic approach employed – correlated very strongly with comprehension – the product, or score – in L2 and fairly strongly in L1. Pedagogical implications suggest individualised reading training in the light of relative difficulties.
The Estimation of Gross Flows in the Presence of Measurement Error using Auxiliary Variables
Authors: Pfeffermann Danny , Skinner Chris , Humphreys Keith 
Published: March 2003

Summary
Classification error can lead to substantial biases in the estimation of gross flows from longitudinal data. We propose a method to adjust flow estimates for bias, based on fitting separate multinomial logistic models to the classification error probabilities and the true state transition probabilities using values of auxiliary variables. Our approach has the advantages that it does not require external information on misclassification rates, it permits the identification of factors that are related to misclassification and true transitions and it does not assume independence between classification errors at successive points in time. Constraining the prediction of the stocks to agree with the observed stocks protects against model misspecification. We apply the approach to data on women from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics with three categories of labour force status. The model fitted is shown to have interpretable coefficient estimates and to provide a good fit. Simulation results indicate good performance of the model in predicting the true flows and robustness against departures from the model postulated.
Modelling Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection and Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome Cases in Scotland: Data Sources, Prior Information and Bayesian Estimation
Authors: Raab G. M. , Yang S. , Allardice G. , Goldberg D. J. , McMenamin J. 
Published: March 2003

Summary
The paper describes the methodology developed to carry out predictions of the acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic in Scotland. Information on the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic comes from formal case reports of AIDS cases and HIV positive tests, reports from surveillance schemes and from special studies. These sources of information, up to the end of 1994, are reviewed. Prior information on aspects of HIV disease is available from various published and unpublished sources. A simple model of the HIV epidemic in Scotland is proposed and the information is summarized in terms of this model. Bayesian methodology, using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, is described and used to predict future cases of AIDS in Scotland and people who will be living with AIDS in the years 1995–1999.
Why use Arbitrary Points Scores?: Ordered Categories in Models of Educational Progress
Authors: Fielding Antony 
Published: March 2003

Summary
Much statistical modelling of random effects on ordered responses, particularly of grades in educational research, continues to use linear models and to treat the responses through arbitrary scores. Methodological and software developments now facilitate the proper treatment of such situations through more realistic generalized random-effects models. This paper reviews some methodological comparisons of these approaches. It highlights the flexibility offered by the macro facilities of the multilevel random-effects software MLwiN. It considers applications to an analysis of primary school educational progress from reception to England and Wales national curriculum key stage 1 mathematics. By contrasting the results from generalized modelling and scoring approaches it draws some conclusions about the theoretical, methodological and practical options that are available. It also considers that results of generalized random-model estimation may be more intelligible to users of analytical results.
Interpreting Forensic DNA Mixtures: Allowing for Uncertainty in Population Substructure and Dependence
Authors: Fung Wing K. , Hu Yue-Qing 
Published: March 2003

Summary
We consider the assessment of deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) profiles from biological samples containing a mixture of DNA from more than one person. The problem has been investigated in the context of likelihood ratios by Weir and co-workers under the assumption of independent alleles in DNA profiles. However, uncertainty about independence may arise from various factors such as population substructure and relatedness. This issue has received considerable attention in recent years. Ignoring this uncertainty may seriously overstate the strength of the evidence and therefore disadvantage innocent suspects. Taking this uncertainty into account, we develop a general formula for calculating the match probabilities of DNA profiles. Thus, we extend the result derived by Weir and co-workers to the dependence situation, which is often more to the benefit of the defendant in comparison with the simple product rule result based on an independence assumption. The effect of dependence of alleles on likelihood ratio estimates can be seen in the analysis of two real data sets.
Combining Evidence on Air Pollution and Daily Mortality from the 20 Largest US Cities: A Hierarchical Modelling Strategy
Authors: Dominici Francesca , Samet Jonathan M. , Zeger Scott L. 
Published: March 2003

Summary
Reports over the last decade of association between levels of particles in outdoor air and daily mortality counts have raised concern that air pollution shortens life, even at concentrations within current regulatory limits. Criticisms of these reports have focused on the statistical techniques that are used to estimate the pollution–mortality relationship and the inconsistency in findings between cities. We have developed analytical methods that address these concerns and combine evidence from multiple locations to gain a unified analysis of the data. The paper presents log-linear regression analyses of daily time series data from the largest 20 US cities and introduces hierarchical regression models for combining estimates of the pollution–mortality relationship across cities. We illustrate this method by focusing on mortality effects of PM10 (particulate matter less than 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter) and by performing univariate and bivariate analyses with PM10 and ozone (O3) level. In the first stage of the hierarchical model, we estimate the relative mortality rate associated with PM10 for each of the 20 cities by using semiparametric log-linear models. The second stage of the model describes between-city variation in the true relative rates as a function of selected city-specific covariates. We also fit two variations of a spatial model with the goal of exploring the spatial correlation of the pollutant-specific coefficients among cities. Finally, to explore the results of considering the two pollutants jointly, we fit and compare univariate and bivariate models. All posterior distributions from the second stage are estimated by using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. In univariate analyses using concurrent day pollution values to predict mortality, we find that an increase of 10 μg m-3 in PM10 on average in the USA is associated with a 0.48% increase in mortality (95% interval: 0.05, 0.92). With adjustment for the O3 level the PM10-coefficient is slightly higher. The results are largely insensitive to the specific choice of vague but proper prior distribution. The models and estimation methods are general and can be used for any number of locations and pollutant measurements and have potential applications to other environmental agents.
Extending the Reach of Randomized Social Experiments: New Directions in Evaluations of American Welfare-to-Work and Employment Initiatives
Authors: Riccio James A. , Bloom Howard S. 
Published: March 2003

SummaryRandom assignment experiments are widely used in the USA to test the effectiveness of new social interventions. This paper discusses several major welfare-to-work experiments, highlighting their evolution from simple ‘black box’ tests of single interventions to multigroup designs used to compare alternative interventions or to isolate the effects of components of an intervention. The paper also discusses new efforts to combine experimental and non-experimental analyses to test underlying programme theories and to maximize the knowledge gained about the effectiveness of social programmes. Researchers and policy makers in other countries may find this variety of approaches useful to consider as they debate an expanded role for social experiments.
Designing for a Response Transformation Parameter
Authors: Atkinson Anthony C. , Cook R. Dennis 
Published: March 2003

Summary
We investigate D-optimum designs for experiments in which a linear model holds after an unknown power transformation of the univariate response variable. This is a departure from standard D-optimal design in which an appropriate scale for the response is assumed known before data collection. The design problem that we formulate is intrinsically non-linear, requiring characterization of likely parameter values. Several applications are presented to illustrate the importance of recognizing the role of response transformations at the design stage.
Iterated Partial Sum Sequences of Regression Residuals and Tests for Changepoints with Continuity Constraints
Authors: Jandhyala V. K. , MacNeill I. B. 
Published: March 2003

Summary
Iterated partial sum sequences of regression least squares residuals are defined and large sample properties of sequences of stochastic processes defined by these iterated partial sums are discussed. Also, finite sample properties of the iterated partial sum sequences are obtained. These include a property of least squares residuals of polynomial fits to equispaced data, namely the iterated partial sums sum to 0 provided that the order of iteration is not greater than the order of the polynomial, thus extending the well-known result that residuals sum to 0. Iterated partial sums are shown to play an important role in testing regression parameters for changes at unknown times under the constraint of continuity.
Random Effect Threshold Models for Dose–Response Relationships with Repeated Measurements
Authors: Brockhoff Per M. , Müller Hans-Georg 
Published: March 2003

Summary
A random threshold model for dose--response designs with repeated measurements is introduced. Inference procedures for this model are discussed. The framework of generalized linear models is used to propose a quasi-likelihood inference procedure. The feasibility of this approach is illustrated with the analysis of food science data concerning a forced choice sensory experiment.
Kernel Smoothing to Improve Bootstrap Confidence Intervals
Authors: Polansky Alan M. , Schucany William. R. 
Published: March 2003

Summary
Some studies of the bootstrap have assessed the effect of smoothing the estimated distribution that is resampled, a process usually known as the smoothed bootstrap. Generally, the smoothed distribution for resampling is a kernel estimate and is often rescaled to retain certain characteristics of the empirical distribution. Typically the effect of such smoothing has been measured in terms of the mean-squared error of bootstrap point estimates. The reports of these previous investigations have not been encouraging about the efficacy of smoothing. In this paper the effect of resampling a kernel-smoothed distribution is evaluated through expansions for the coverage of bootstrap percentile confidence intervals. It is shown that, under the smooth function model, proper bandwidth selection can accomplish a first-order correction for the one-sided percentile method. With the objective of reducing the coverage error the appropriate bandwidth for one-sided intervals converges at a rate of n −1/4, rather than the familiar n −1/5 for kernel density estimation. Applications of this same approach to bootstrap t and two-sided intervals yield optimal bandwidths of order n −1/2. These bandwidths depend on moments of the smooth function model and not on derivatives of the underlying density of the data. The relationship of this smoothing method to both the accelerated bias correction and the bootstrap t methods provides some insight into the connections between three quite distinct approximate confidence intervals.
Mixed Effects Smoothing Spline Analysis of Variance
Authors: Wang Yuedong 
Published: March 2003

Summary
We propose a general family of nonparametric mixed effects models. Smoothing splines are used to model the fixed effects and are estimated by maximizing the penalized likelihood function. The random effects are generic and are modelled parametrically by assuming that the covariance function depends on a parsimonious set of parameters. These parameters and the smoothing parameter are estimated simultaneously by the generalized maximum likelihood method. We derive a connection between a nonparametric mixed effects model and a linear mixed effects model. This connection suggests a way of fitting a nonparametric mixed effects model by using existing programs. The classical two-way mixed models and growth curve models are used as examples to demonstrate how to use smoothing spline analysis-of-variance decompositions to build nonparametric mixed effects models. Similarly to the classical analysis of variance, components of these nonparametric mixed effects models can be interpreted as main effects and interactions. The penalized likelihood estimates of the fixed effects in a two-way mixed model are extensions of James–Stein shrinkage estimates to correlated observations. In an example three nested nonparametric mixed effects models are fitted to a longitudinal data set.
Boundary Detection Through Dynamic Polygons
Authors: Pievatolo A. , Green Peter J. 
Published: March 2003

Summary
A method for the Bayesian restoration of noisy binary images portraying an object with constant grey level on a background is presented. The restoration, performed by fitting a polygon with any number of sides to the object's outline, is driven by a new probabilistic model for the generation of polygons in a compact subset of R2, which is used as a prior distribution for the polygon. Some measurability issues raised by the correct specification of the model are addressed. The simulation from the prior and the calculation of the a posteriori mean of grey levels are carried out through reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo computation, whose implementation and convergence properties are also discussed. One example of restoration of a synthetic image is presented and compared with existing pixel-based methods.
On the Estimation of an Instantaneous Transformation for Time Series
Authors: Xia Yingcun , Tong Howell , Li W. K. , Zhu Li-Xing 
Published: March 2003

Summary
We modify Ramsay's algorithm for estimating monotonic transformations in regression and extend it to autoregression, where strict monotonicity is an essential requirement. Compared with other methods, our method can capture some characteristics that are pertinent to the time series and is much easier to implement. An order selection method is introduced and developed. Some real data sets are analysed.
Closure of the Class of Binary Generalized Linear Models in Some Non-standard Settings
Authors: Neuhaus John M. 
Published: March 2003

Summary
This paper considers fitting generalized linear models to binary data in nonstandard settings such as case–control samples, studies with misclassified responses and misspecified models. We develop simple methods for fitting models to case–control data and show that a closure property holds for generalized linear models in the nonstandard settings, i.e. if the responses follow a generalized linear model in the population of interest, then so will the observed response in the non-standard setting, but with a modified link function. These results imply that we can analyse data and study problems in the non-standard settings by using classical generalized linear model methods such as the iteratively reweighted least squares algorithm. Example data illustrate the results.