bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Guide to statistical modelling with GLIM
Authors: Swan Tony , Gilchrist Robert , Bradley Malcolm , Clarke Mike , Green Peter , Reese Allan , Hinde John , Stalewski Andrew , O’brien Carl 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
This chapter gives a description of the general principles of statistical modelling using the GLIM package. A theoretical treatment is deferred to Chapter 11. Standard models that are subsumed in the GLM family and which can be routinely analysed with GLIM are treated first. Later sections describe many examples of non-standard models that can also be analysed with GLIM. The user may need to refer to the User Guide for more detail. Case studies of analyses for many of these models are given in Chapter 12.
Applications of GLIM
Authors: Swan Tony , Gilchrist Robert , Bradley Malcolm , Clarke Mike , Green Peter , Reese Allan , Hinde John , Stalewski Andrew , O’brien Carl 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
This chapter of the Modelling Guide is intended to give a set of more or less complete analyses covering a range of practical problems for which GLIM is useful. The examples are also intended to convey how the various facilities of GLIM, especially the high-resolution graphics, may be used with practical problems, and to provide a useful reference for users with similar problems. The examples given here are designed to cover the most common problems that arise for which univariate modelling is appropriate. They are grouped, mainly, according to the type of response variable of which the main types of interest are continuous (measured), dichotomous (two categories), and counted (frequencies). However there is some overlap so it was not possible to keep rigidly to this scheme.
Faults and Error Handling
Authors: Swan Tony , Gilchrist Robert , Bradley Malcolm , Clarke Mike , Green Peter , Reese Allan , Hinde John , Stalewski Andrew , O’brien Carl 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
The sections in [15] describe the normal behaviour of GLIM, that is, when the statements presented are syntactically correct and specify valid operations. In this chapter we describe how GLIM handles exceptions. Such exceptions occur when GLIM detects a potentially dangerous occurrence ([16.1] on warnings), or is presented with a syntactically or semantically incorrect statement or encounters the FAULT directive ([16.2] on faults), or is interrupted by the user while executing a statement ([16.3] on break-ins), or is interrupted by the operating system when detecting a floating point error [16.4], or finds an inconsistency within its own data structures ([16.5] on system faults), or finds a FORTRAN inconsistency which GLIM cannot handle ([16.6] on FORTRAN level faults).
Properties of the Inverse Gaussian Distribution
Authors: Seshadri V 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
For a comprehensive survey of the basic properties of the inverse Gaussian law it is essential to have a clear understanding of the fundamentals of exponential families. The seeds of exponential families were first sown by Fisher (1934) who argued that families of one-dimensional distributions admitting a sufficient reduction have to be exponential. This idea got Dar mois (1935), Koopman (1936), and Pitman (1936) on the trail while some early development can be found in Lehmann (1959) where the details of some basic results on exponential families are introduced. These early ex positions merely scratched the surface until Barndorff-Nielsen (1970) began a systematic study of the exact theory of exponential families culminating in his doctoral dissertation (1973) on exponential families and condition ing (see also Chentsov 1966 for a detailed study of exponential families). The panorama of their structure is portrayed in his classic work (1978a) and complemented in some areas by Johansen (1979). Efron (1978) has provided a new dimension by exploring the geometry of exponential fam ilies. The monograph of Brown (1986) contains a theoretical examination of exponential families with emphasis on decision theory.
Public Health Decision Making: a Sequential Vaccine Trial
Authors: Berry Donald A , Wolff Mark C , Sack David 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
A vaccine for Hcemophilus injluenzce type B is compared in a randomized trial with a placebo vaccine. ‘The trial should end and the vaccine should be abandoned when it becomes clear that it is not sufficienlly effective. And the trial should end when the available information makes it clear that the vaccine is sufficiently effective to be approved for general use by regulatory authorities and recommended for general use by medical authorities. We take a decision-theoretic point of view in which the objective is to minimize the expected number of cases of H. infiuenzce among Navajo Indians during the next several years. We use the available historical information in determining the trial’s design, and update this information as data accumulates from the trial. An important type of information to be assessed is that concerning actions the regulatory and medical authorities will take based on data from the trial. ‘The data that accumulate during the trial includes the time each subject has spent at risk. The design of the trial is sequential; we find optimal designs by numerical calculations using backwards induction. We evaluate optimal designs in an actual trial and compare them with nonsequential designs and with the frequentist design that was actually used in the trial.
Non-informative Priors
Authors: Ghosh Jayanta K , Mukerjee Rahul 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
This paper reviews non-informative priors based on considerations of (i) entropy, (ii) matching what a frequentist might do and (iii) weak minimaxity. Some new results have also been presented. The best way to think of a non-informative prior is, as Bernardo (1979) has argued, as a sort of origin or reference point against which any given p1ior reflecting some subjective opinion can be judged. In fact, it would be quite appropriate to call all candidates for non-informative priors reference priors. However, in what follows, the term reference prior will be used only for the p1iors proposed by Bernardo (1979) and Berger and Bernardo (1989) and the traditional terminology will be used for the other non-informative priors.
The Elusive Concept of Statistical Evidence
Authors: Royall Richard M 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
We examine the fundamental rule for interpreting statistical data as evidence, the Law of Likelihood. The Law’s rationale and implications are sketched, and its limitations are explored via an attempt to extend its scope to include composite hypotheses. Our fundamental question is this: When is it correct to say that one statistical hypothesis is better-supported than another by a given body of observations?. Than is, when is the fact that a random variable x takes on a specific value x properly interpreted as evidence supporting hypothesis H0 in favor of H1? A second question concerns quantifying this evidence: Can we measure its strength? These questions lie at the heart of many applications of statistical methods in scientific inference. Questions of calibrating and revising degrees of belief and problems of choosing from a list of available actions are also important, but analyses aimed at objectively representing and interpreting the data as evidence are central to much of scientific research. A conspicuous example is the practice of using significance tests (p-values) to measure the strength of evidence.
Warranties
Authors: Singpurwalla N D , Wilson S P 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
Consumer products, such as automobiles, often carry warranties such as 5 years or 50,000 miles, whichever comes first. There are two issues of interest, the first being a specification of an optimum price-warranty combination, and the second the forecast of a reserve fund to meet warranty claims. The former involves a consideration of the item’s reliability and the competitors’ actions, and the latter involves the analysis of a time series in two dimensions for which the use of Bayesian methods is natural. In this expository paper we overview the warranty problem and suggest strategies for addressing the ensuing issues.
Advances in Bayesian Experimental Design
Authors: Verdinelli Isabella 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
In this paper, current issues and recent advances in the Bayesian design of experiments are outlined. The unifying view of Bayesian decision theory is emphasized in order to include old and new optimality criteria derived from suitable utility functions. A special case is considered to illustrate the behavior of different designs and to show their sensitivity to the particular features of the experiment. Further research topics are briefly outlined and future directions to be taken are also described.
Bayesian Hierarchical Logistic Models for Combining Field and Laboratory Survival Data
Authors: Wolpert Robert L , Warren-Hicks William J 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
Generalized linear regression models fit to multicollinear data sets can be unreliable for making predictions in data sets free from the multicollinearity. We overcome this problem in a study of brook trout response to acidification by constructing hierarchical Bayesian models to provide a coherent logical structure for synthesizing evidence from field observations and from related laboratory bioassay experiments, despite the great differences between field and laboratory settings and uncertainties about those differences.
Fertility in Britain: variation and its significance
Authors: Coleman D A 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
The significance of human fertility differentials
Differences in human fertility can have biological, social, and political consequences. Biological consequences arise if genotypically distinct individuals or genetically definable groups have different average rates of fertility or reproduction. Genetic differences may have social significance, especially if linked to ‘visible minorities’. Alternatively, they may be hidden polymorphisms of medical or evolutionary interest. Quite independently of any biological connection, if members of socially defined groups have distinctive characteristics which can be transmitted culturally from one generation to the next, and also have non-average fertility, then the characteristics of that society will change. That in turn may have political consequences, if the groups concerned are ethnic or religious rivals, or even recognizable in cultural or phenotypic ways. Quite apart from any group categorization, if individuals with particular characteristics which are socially or biologically heritable, have more children than others then those characteristics are likely to spread in the population; whether they are those of Galton’s ‘hereditary genius’ (Eysenck 1993) or the characteristics of ‘problem families’, or of an ‘underclass’.
Change and variability in Papua New Guinea’s patterns of disease
Authors: Attenborough R D , Alpers m. P 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
Modernization—whatever that may be —increases life expectancy through a shift away from infectious, mainly early-acting causes of ill-health and death, towards non-infectious, mainly degenerative and later-acting causes. Versions of this statement have been advanced by many researchers and are widely accepted (e.g. Trowell and Burkitt 1981; Boyden 1987; Caldwell et al. 1990; Landers 1992). Western societies — where the historical process is now more or less complete, though not irreversible (Fenner 1990) — are the paradigm cases. A similar or partly similar transition is currently under way to varying degrees in non-Western, including Third-World developing countries, and amongst Fourth-World indigenous minorities such as Aboriginal Australians.
The Cerdanya, a valley divided: biosocial anthropology in a research project
Authors: Macbeth H M 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
Within anthropology the optimism of the early 1970s for greater re-integration of biological and social perspectives on the human sciences (Harrison and Boyce 1972) remains in the 1990s problematic, although still an enthusiasm of many students. This chapter concerns research that owes much to that 1970s optimism in regard to the human sciences.
The relevance of barriers to human movement as obstacles to reproduction is well documented in biological anthropology. Isolation and even partial isolation of a group of people behind any obstacle to gene flow is of interest to biological anthropologists because the divergent effects on gene frequencies on either side of such barriers lead to genetic differences. As humans can and do cross all known physical barriers, totally isolated populations do not exist, but obstacles to passage do reduce the likelihood of marriage and mating. Such obstacles can be physical, for example the river Ray on Otmoor (Boyce et al. 1968), or social, as humans construct barriers through their perceptions of social affiliation. The biological anthropologists’ interest has frequently been directed towards mating patterns either side of that obstacle, when boundaries to biological ‘populations’ are sought in the genetic, ‘Mendelian’ sense, but biological diversity can also be caused by non-genetic factors (Harrison 1978). While ecological differences may well be discussed, too often omitted are the differences in culture, even slight, that can affect these non-genetic factors. Where the boundary is socially constructed, this is particularly likely.
Introduction
Authors: Ulijaszek Stanley J 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
In this book, the biological and social effects of various types of health intervention on human groups and communities living in the less developed world are examined. Intervention is an integral part of development, while health is an obvious indicator of development, since it reflects improved well-being. Development is a concept which came out of the discipline of economics, and economists generally assume that economic growth results in improved human well-being. However, the associations between economic indicators and health status at national and international level are loose, at best. Unlike development, which has wide-reaching consequences, interventions are targeted changes to the biosocial environment. Like development, they are aimed at improving human well-being, health or welfare. Although such changes may be introduced in a variety of ways, intervention would not be possible in the absence of economic resources.
Design and analysis of experiments
Authors: Payne R W , Lane P W , Digby P G N , Harding S A , Leech P K , Morgan G W , Todd AD , Thompson R , Wilson G Tunnicliffe , Welham S J , White R P 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
This chapter first describes the Genstat directives for estimating the effects of treatments and doing an analysis of variance with data from a designed experiment. Then, in Section 9.8, it describes the facilities for designing experiments.
In a designed experiment, each treatment is applied to several units, such as plots of land, or animal or human subjects, or samples of material. Usually the treatments are allocated randomly, since the units might not be absolutely identical. This guards against any treatment systematically getting more than its fair share of the best units, which might cause it to appear to be better than the treatments on the less favourable units. It is also one form of justification for the statistical analysis. For a more detailed discussion of why randomization is important, see for example Chapter 5 of Cox (1958).
The analysis of grouped longitudinal mortality data allowing for variable natural mortality
Authors: Hines R J O’HARA , Hines W G S 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
One of David Williams’ many interests was the analysis of data from toxicological studies in which groups of animals were exposed to different treatment conditions and the resulting proportions responding or exhibiting some symptom or behaviour were recorded. For example, in Williams (1987), he discussed deletion diagnostics and residuals for the detection of influential observations and outliers when generalized linear models are fitted to such data. In Williams (1982, 1988), variance models which account for the presence of extra-bionomial variation in the proportions were presented. He was also interested in interval estimation of the median lethal concentration (LC50) in toxicological studies in which the recorded response recorded was death (Williams 1986). Additionally, in a study of exposure time on the susceptibility of a certain species of snail (Boyce and Williams 1967), Williams estimated the median mortality time for a given toxicant concentration (LT50) using independent groups of animals at the different observation times. In contrast, the present chapter considers studies in which mortalities in the same groups of animals are recorded at a number of observation times.
Statistical evaluation of the fixed-dose procedure
Authors: Whitehead A 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
The generally accepted method for assessing the acute oral toxicity of a substance has, until recently, been the LD50 study. In such a study, groups of laboratory animals, often rats, are given a range of dose levels of the substance, with the dose levels chosen to span the ‘expected’ median lethal dose (LD50). The internationally agreed guideline published by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD 1981) recommended that ten rats (five male and five female) be tested at each of a minimum of three dose levels. In 1987 the revised guideline (OECD 1987) reduced the recommended total number of animals to 20. In addition, the highest permitted test dose was reduced from 5000 mg/kg body weight to 2000 mg/kg body weight. From such a study it should be possible to estimate the LD50 and calculate a confidence interval, provided that mortality is seen at or below the highest test dose.
Ethics, objectivity, and politics: statistics in a public policy context
Authors: Fienberg Stephen E 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
For decades, statisticians have perpetrated a myth: that the methods they use impart objectivity to the scientific or policy issue they are used to elucidate, either through the randomization at treatment, the random selection of subjects from some appropriate population, or through the careful application of statistical models and the assessment of their fit. We have looked back to those who laid the groundwork for an identifiable field of statistics, people such as Francis Galton, Karl Pearson, R. A. Fisher, and Francis Walker, and have described them as dispassionate scientists who brought the formalism of statistical thinking to areas of application such as biology or government data gathering and thereby overcame the biased and unscientific approach of others. But quality statistical methodology often serves as a thin veneer layered over scientific investigations that are far from objective or policy neutral. This was as true for our statistical forebears as it is in the modern statistical world. Thus, we often neglect to note the extent to which the social eugenics movement influenced Galton, Pearson, and Fisher (see, for example, MacKenzie 1981; Porter 1986), or racism affected Walker’s leadership of the decennial census (see Anderson 1987). To a large extent this may not matter at all, but I believe that there are contexts where it does.
Statistics in Washington, 1935-19451
Authors: Wallis W Allen 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
Three considerations led me to accept the invitation to join you tonight. First, it is an honor that I would not want to forego. Second, I anticipated, correctly, that it would be an opportunity to renew old friendships and acquaintances and to make new ones. Third, I was given the impression that all that would be expected of me would be rambling reminiscences about statistics in Washington 50 to 60 years ago. With that subject the risk is only epsilon that inacuracies will be detected by more than a tiny number of the audience, so I thought it was an easy subject.
Surveying individuals with disabilities1
Authors: Sampson Allan R 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
Implementing, monitoring and funding national and local disability programs and legal mandates require meaningful and accurate statistics concerning individuals with disabilities. The 1990 Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) which extended certain civil rights protections to individuals with disabilities was justified, in part, by disability data demonstrating substantial economic disadvantages towards individuals with disabilities. As McNeil (1991b) noted, ‘national surveys consistently showed that two-thirds of the population with a work disability were without a job’ and many of these individuals wanted employment. To monitor, now and in the future, the success, compliance, and costs of the ADA, we need disability data of the highest quality. Equally compelling as the ADA data needs, are the disability data requirements for the Social Security Administration, particularly the Disability Insurance Program and Medicaid; for the Veterans’ Administration; and for state-level vocational rehabilitation programs. A broader description of programs that depend on disability data is given by Levine et al. (1990).
Constructed social networks in the study of diffusion1
Authors: Coleman James S 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
The aim of population sampling is to choose a sample from a population of independent individuals to provide a good estimate of the distribution (or of some parameters of the distribution) of characteristics of the individuals. The unit of observation is the individual (from whom data are typically obtained by interview or questionnaire), and the unit being described is the set of individuals, each of whom is regarded as an independent element of the set.
Bayesian Statistics and the Law
Authors: Fienberg S E , Finkelstein M O 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
The past 20 years has seen a remarkable growth in the use of statistics as evidence in legal proceedings. In the United States especially, there has been a vigorous debate over the role Bayesian methods should have both in the presentation of such evidence and in its evaluation by the triers of fact, i.e., judges and juries. In this paper, we review some of the legal and statistical elements of this debate, especially as it has appeared in treatises on legal evidence and we consider empirical evidence on how Bayesian evidence would be understood by triers of fact. We then present some widely discussed issues and “problematic” aspects of some simple uses of Bayes’ theorem. Finally, we describe two recent court cases involving Bayesian statistical evidence.
Support Theory: A Nonextensional Representation of Probability Judgment
Authors: Tversky A , Koehler D J 
Published: November 2023

Abstract
We present a descriptive theory of belief in which probability judgments are not assigned to events—as in other models—but rather to descriptions of events, called hypotheses. In this theory, judged probability is expressed as normalized support, or strength of evidence, of the focal hypothesis relative to the alternative. The theory is nonextensional because alternative descriptions of the same event can give rise to different judgments. A review of the experimental literature and the results of new studies confirm the major predictions of support theory. First, judged probability increases by unpacking the focal hypothesis and decreases by unpacking the alternative hypothesis. Second, judged probabilities are complementary in the binary case and sub additive in the general case, contrary to both classical and revisionist models of belief. Third, subadditivity is more pronounced for probability judgments than for frequency judgments. Support theory provides a unified treatment of a wide range of empirical findings. The theory is extended to the assessment of upper and lower probabilities. Prescriptive implications are explored.