bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Comparing the suitability of global gridded population datasets for local landslide risk assessments
Authors: Opdyke Aaron , Fatima Khadija 
Published: November 2023

AbstractLandslide risk assessments are increasingly crucial for meeting global disaster risk reduction strategies and mobilising knowledge for local governments to protect communities and infrastructure. These assessments are data intensive, requiring large amounts of spatial demographic and natural hazard information. There are a growing number of high-resolution gridded population datasets that have global coverage with significant potential to transform disaster risk modelling, however landslide research has not yet compared the suitability of these gridded datasets for local risk assessments. Combining social vulnerability indicators with high-resolution settlement layer (HRSL) and WorldPop gridded population datasets, as well as a local household survey, we layer landslide susceptibility maps to compare three landslide risk estimates, examining the case of the Municipality of Carigara located in the central Philippines. Using statistical t tests, we compare aggregated community landslide risk for 49 communities. Findings revealed that HRSL data resulted in similar landslide risk at community scales when compared to local surveys, however WorldPop data greatly overestimated risk. Our findings point to a high level of accuracy of HRSL when used as an exposure dataset for local landslide risk studies and recommend avoiding WorldPop for such purposes. This research advances understanding of the suitability of open population datasets for use in landslide risk assessments in resource-constrained communities.
Gender Differences in Children’s Reasoning About and Motivation to Pursue Leadership Roles
Authors: Vial Andrea C. , Cimpian Andrei 
Published: November 2023

AbstractInvestigating how children think about leadership may inform theories of the gender gaps in leadership among adults. In three studies (N = 492 U.S. children ages 5–10 years), we investigated (1) whether children expect those who claim leadership roles within a peer group to elicit social support and cooperation from the group, (2) children’s own interest and self-efficacy in such roles, and (3) the influence of contextual cues (e.g., how leader roles are described) on children’s reasoning about and interest in leadership. We also explored differences based on children’s race/ethnicity. In Study 1, girls expected lower social support for child leaders than boys did. However, in Study 2, we found no evidence that girls are less interested in leadership. In addition, interest in leadership increased with age among White girls but decreased among White boys and girls and boys of color. In Study 3, we tested whether interest in a leader role is boosted (particularly among girls) by describing the role as helpful for the group and by providing gender-balanced peer role models. Regardless of gender, children in the helpful or “communal” (vs. “agentic”) leader condition were more interested in the leader role, anticipated stronger social support and cooperation from others, and reported higher self-efficacy as leaders. The gender composition of role models had little impact. This research underscores the early development of children’s attitudes toward leadership and highlights the potential value in early interventions to nurture children’s leadership ambitions.
The Mean Temperatures of CME-Related Dimming Masses
Authors: Thomson Emily , Hudson Hugh 
Published: November 2023

AbstractSun-as-a-star EUV spectroscopy from EVE (the Extreme-ultraviolet Variability Experiment, on board SDO, the Solar Dynamics Observatory) frequently shows striking irradiance reductions following major solar flares. These coincide with dimming events as seen in EUV and X-ray images, involving the evacuation of large volumes of the corona by the associated coronal mass ejections. The EVE view of the dimming process is precise and quantitative, whereas difference imaging in the EUV reveals the structures to be full of complicated detail due most likely to unrelated activity. We have studied a sample of 11 events, mostly GOES X-class flares, all of which were associated with coronal mass ejections. For a set of nine lines of Fe ions at stages viii – xiii, corresponding to nominal peak formation temperatures below $\log (T/\mathrm{K}) = 6.3$
log
(
T
/
K
)
=
6.3
, we have compared the emission-measure-weighted temperature of the preflare global corona and that of the dimming mass, defined by the deficit at the time of greatest dimming. We find similar temperatures by this measure, but with a distinctly narrower variation in the preflare samples. For higher ionization states, weak emission commonly appears during the dimming intervals, consistent with residual late-phase flare development. The dimming depths do not appear to correlate with the preflare state of the global corona.
Does reflective equilibrium help us converge?
Authors: Freivogel Andreas 
Published: November 2023

AbstractI address the worry that reflective equilibrium is too weak as an account of justification because it fails to let differing views converge. I take up informal aspects of convergence and operationalise them in a formal model of reflective equilibrium. This allows for exploration by the means of computer simulation. Findings show that the formal model does not yield unique outputs, but still boosts agreement. I conclude from this that reflective equilibrium is best seen as a pluralist account of justification that cannot be accused of resulting in an “anything goes” relativism.
Exploring risk perceptions: a new perspective on analysis
Authors: Garthwaite Kathryn , Birdsall Sally , France Bev 
Published: November 2023

AbstractWhen secondary school students were asked about the socioscientific issue of using sodium fluoroacetate (1080) poison to control New Zealand’s possum pests, they provided a wide range of responses. Their responses showed that they considered this method of control to be risky and contentious. Such contentious issues are an example of the complexity involved in using a socioscientific approach to investigate an aspect of post-normal science. This paper provides the background to and development of a new risk perceptions analysis framework that was employed to qualitatively interpret these diverse viewpoints. Four Cultural Types (Nature Benign, Nature Tolerant, Nature Ephemeral and Nature Capricious) are accommodated within this framework. Each Cultural Type has a particular view of risk that is defined using common characteristics and is differentiated by unique individual attributes. It is proposed that this framework has the potential to analyse students’ responses to this contentious issue of 1080 use. The framework could be used as an educative tool in classrooms to investigate the range of views within society about issues that involve risk. Additionally, it could be used to assist students to gain awareness of their own view as well as develop an appreciation about the differing views of risk held by other people when discussing contentious issues.
Clay hypoplasticity coupled with small-strain approaches for complex cyclic loading
Authors: Medicus Gertraud , Tafili Merita , Bode Manuel , Fellin Wolfgang , Wichtmann Torsten 
Published: November 2023

AbstractConstitutive models that are able to accurately predict cyclic soil behaviour are crucial for finite element design of offshore foundation or railway embankments. Basic hypoplastic models introduce the history of loading in state variables such as the stress and void ratio and are therefore incapable of describing small-strain stiffness and cyclic loading. In this work, clay hypoplasticity is extended with a modified intergranular strain proposed by Duque et al. [3]. The new model is compared to the one coupled previously with ISA based on unconventional as well as complex cyclic loading paths. Abilities and limitations of the models are addressed: (i) showing that both models predict a reduction in strain accumulation with an increasing number of cycles. (ii) For both models pronounced over- and undershooting effects can occur for certain cyclic loading paths and certain parameters. Despite the consensus in the literature, the results show that a yield surface in the (intergranular) strain space is not sufficient to ban these effects. Furthermore, the models’ predictive capabilities are verified with simulations of monotonic and cyclic tests of Lower Rhine clay.
The UTUH model: a time-dependent unified hardening constitutive model for unsaturated soils
Authors: Zhao Runkang , Zhou Annan , Yao Yang-Ping 
Published: November 2023

AbstractAn advanced constitutive framework for unsaturated soils, the UTUH model, is proposed in this paper, which considers the joint effect of time, suction and overconsolidation within the framework of sub-loading surface plasticity. A reference line, namely the instantaneously normal compression line (INCLs) for unsaturated soils, is introduced from a conceptual framework drawn from constant rates of strain test results to determine creep time and overconsolidation states of unsaturated soils. Subsequently, an isotropic elasto-viscoplastic constitutive model for unsaturated soils is produced by combining viscous deformation with mechanical and hydraulic deformation through overconsolidation parameter. Net stress, suction and time are adopted as fundamental constitutive variables and time-dependent loading collapse yield surface is derived to characterize the relationship between yield stress, suction, and time. Then, an extension to a triaxial stress state is built in the space of mean effective stress, suction, deviator stress and time variable. The hardening of yield surface and sub-loading surface is controlled by viscoplastic volumetric strain and unified hardening parameter. The performance of the proposed UTUH model is addressed through four numerical studies, and the proposed model is validated against experimental data from the literature.
A Portrait of Gambling Behaviors and Associated Cognitive Beliefs Among Young Adolescents in Italy
Authors: Favieri Francesca , Forte Giuseppe , Casagrande Maria , Dalpiaz Claudio , Riglioni Anna , Langher Viviana 
Published: November 2023

AbstractGambling disorder is a highly prevalent behavioral addiction in young adults. Accordingly, data on the prevalence of gambling as experience and problem gambling as at-risk behavior among adolescents are necessary, due to the increase in gambling behavior and its implications in recent years. This study aimed to assess the prevalence and characteristics (i.e., cognitive beliefs and knowledge of risk) of gambling among Italian adolescents.A cross-sectional survey analyzed gambling behavior, related cognitive beliefs, and knowledge of the gambling context in a large sample of Italian adolescents, differentiating gambling activities per se and problem gambling as a risk for addiction. Data from 4825 Italian 15-year-olds showed that the prevalence of regular gamblers (i.e., experiencing frequent gambling experience in the last 12 months) was 6.4%, and that of adolescents who played at least once in the last 12 months was 52%. The regular and at-risk gamblers who reported critical scores in the Gambling Related Cognitions Scale declared higher knowledge of gambling and worse cognitive beliefs than both non-gamblers and occasional gamblers.Prevalence data and descriptive outcomes of this study suggest the importance of further analyzing the gambling phenomenon among adolescents. The increasing intensity of gambling engagement and compulsive gambling highlights the clinical need to address youth addiction through structured primary and secondary prevention programs.
An elementary proof of the dual representation of Expected Shortfall
Authors: Herdegen Martin , Munari Cosimo 
Published: November 2023

AbstractWe provide an elementary proof of the dual representation of Expected Shortfall on the space of integrable random variables over a general probability space. Unlike the results in the extant literature, our proof only exploits basic properties of quantile functions and can thus be easily implemented in any graduate course on risk measures. As a byproduct, we obtain a new proof of the subadditivity of Expected Shortfall.
Optimal fracture prediction thresholds for therapy onset, established from FRAX and Garvan algorithms: a longitudinal observation of the population representative female cohort from the RAC-OST-POL Study
Authors: Pluskiewicz W. , Werner A. , Bach M. , Adamczyk P. , Drozdzowska B. 
Published: November 2023

Abstract

Summary

The study shows that the use of unified cutoff thresholds to identify high fracture risks by two popular calculators—FRAX and Garvan—leads to a significant discrepancy between the prediction of fractures and their actual prevalence over the period of 10 years. On the basis of the ROC analyses, a proposal of differentiated thresholds is presented. They were established at 6% for FRAX major fracture risk, 1.4% for FRAX hip fracture risk, 14.4% for Garvan any fracture risk, and 8.8% for Garvan hip fracture risk.

Purpose/introduction
The aim of the study was to verify how much were the tools, designed to predict fracture risks, precise vs. the actual fracture incidence values over a prospective observation.

Methods
The study group consisted of a population-based postmenopausal sample from the RAC-OST-POL Study. At baseline, there were 978 subjects at the mean age of 66.4 ± 7.8 years and, after a 10-year follow-up, 640 women remained at the mean age of 75.0 ± 6.95 years. At baseline, the fracture risk was established by the FRAX and Garvan tools.

Results
During the observation period, 190 osteoporotic fractures were identified in 129 subjects. When high-risk fracture cutoff thresholds (of 10% for major/any and 3% for hip fractures) were employed, only 19.59% of major fractures and 50% of hip fractures were identified in the high-risk group. For the Garvan tool, the percentage of correctly predicted fractures for any and hip fractures was 86.05% and 71.43%, respectively. Nevertheless, the fracture prediction by the Garvan tool was associated with the qualification of numerous subjects to the high-risk group, who subsequently did not experience a fracture in the 10-year follow-up period (false-positive prediction). Based on the ROC analyses, new high-risk thresholds were proposed individually for each calculator, improving the sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic accuracy of these tools. They were established at 6% for FRAX major fracture risk, 1.4% for FRAX hip fracture risk, 14.4% for Garvan any fracture risk, and 8.8% for Garvan hip fracture risk.

Conclusions
The current prospective study enabled to establish new, optimal thresholds for therapy initiation. Such a modified approach may enable a more accurate identification of treatment requiring patients and, in consequence, reduce the number of new fractures.
Machine-Learning-Assisted Development of Carbon Steel With Superior Strength and Ductility Manufactured by Electron Beam Powder Bed Fusion
Authors: Gui Yunwei , Aoyagi Kenta , Bian Huakang , Chiba Akihiko 
Published: November 2023

AbstractIn this study, based on a novel support vector machine optimization method, a wide processing window for manufacturing defect-free S25C carbon steel by electron beam powder bed fusion (EB-PBF) was identified. Samples with same energy densities exhibited similar microstructures and mechanical properties. One sample showed an optimum strength and elongation combination of 459.3 MPa and 57.6 pct. The pearlite region with irregular cementite particles was the first to crack during deformation, and the cracks gradually expanded into the surrounding area. Ferrite, cellular structures, and pearlite with parallel and straight cementite particles could effectively modulate the deformation by slip and enhance the plasticity of the S25C parts. After quenching, the strength improved to an unprecedented value of 1722.5 MPa owing to the presence of martensite and dislocation entanglements, with an elongation of 16.8 pct. The strength decreased after further tempering, and the plasticity evidently increased, with an optimum strength and elongation combination of 722.7 MPa and 44.2 pct, respectively. The microstructure of tempered sample contained lath martensite, cementite particles, and sparse dislocation lines. These results demonstrate that the current method can serve as a powerful tool for effectively optimizing the high-dimensional parameters of the EB-PBF process to produce carbon steel with excellent mechanical properties.
Wireworm feeding behaviours: the capacity of Hypnoidus bicolor to damage soybean under different environmental conditions
Authors: Drahun Ivan , Rutherford Pamela L. , van Herk Willem G. , Cassone Bryan J. 
Published: November 2023

AbstractImportant agricultural pests in the Canadian Prairies, wireworms are the soil-living larvae of click beetles. Several notable species are found within the Prairies, with Hypnoidus bicolor being the most ubiquitous in most parts of the region. Despite their prevalence, H. bicolor is often disregarded as a significant pest species due to their comparatively small larval sizes. However, few studies have directly assessed the capacity of wireworms to cause damage to particular crop(s), and thus far no such studies have been undertaken for H. bicolor. We therefore carried out laboratory experiments under controlled environmental conditions, with soil and wireworms transplanted from the field, to determine the capability of H. bicolor to damage soybean. As expected, wireworm damage was strongly associated with larval densities, with more severe soybean injury occurring in the presence of greater numbers of H. bicolor. Further, feeding damage to soybean by H. bicolor was greater at lower temperatures (10 °C and 20 °C) than at higher temperatures (30 °C). In terms of soil texture, soybean grown in loam and silt soils were the most susceptible to wireworm damage and those grown in clay soil were the least affected. Although the larvae are not capable of damaging soybean to the same extent as other Prairie pest species, Limonius californicus and Hypnoidus abbreviatus, in high enough densities and under ideal environmental conditions H. bicolor can significantly impact soybean growth. Overall, our study suggests that soybean is susceptible to considerable wireworm damage and H. bicolor is an under recognized pest species of this legume.
An R-based tool for identifying sex-linked markers from restriction site-associated DNA sequencing with applications to elasmobranch conservation
Authors: Devloo-Delva Floriaan , Gosselin Thierry , Butcher Paul A. , Grewe Peter M. , Huveneers Charlie , Thomson Robin B. , Werry Jonathan M. , Feutry Pierre 
Published: November 2023

AbstractIdentifying sex-linked markers from genomic data has both theoretical and applied importance, especially in conservation. Yet, few methods and tools exist to detect such markers from Restriction-site-Associated DNA sequencing reads and even fewer tools can identify sex-linked markers from existing genotyped data. Here, we describe a new R function that can identify sex-linked markers in species with partially non-recombining sex chromosomes. We test the accuracy and speed of our function with an example dataset from a species of conservation concern, the White Shark, Carcharodon carcharias. We further compare our method against other approaches and find that our method detects more sex-linked markers that can be reliably mapped to reference genomes. Overall, we provide a conservation and fisheries-relevant tool that can reliably and efficiently assign sex from genetic data in species with a heterogametic sex and we demonstrate its utility by developing a sex-identification PCR test for White Sharks.
Testing Correlation in a Three-Level Model
Authors: Szczepańska-Álvarez Anna , Álvarez Adolfo , Szwengiel Artur , von Rosen Dietrich 
Published: November 2023

AbstractIn this paper, we present a statistical approach to evaluate the relationship between variables observed in a two-factors experiment. We consider a three-level model with covariance structure $${\varvec{\Sigma }} \otimes {\varvec{\Psi }}_1 \otimes {\varvec{\Psi }}_2$$

Σ

⊗

Ψ

1

⊗

Ψ

2

, where $${\varvec{\Sigma }}$$

Σ

is an arbitrary positive definite covariance matrix, and $${\varvec{\Psi }}_1$$

Ψ

1

and $${\varvec{\Psi }}_2$$

Ψ

2

are both correlation matrices with a compound symmetric structure corresponding to two different factors. The Rao’s score test is used to test the hypotheses that observations grouped by one or two factors are uncorrelated. We analyze a fermentation process to illustrate the results. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online.
Farmland biodiversity monitoring through citizen science: A review of existing approaches and future opportunities
Authors: Ruck Andy , van der Wal René , S. C. Hood Amelia , L. Mauchline Alice , G. Potts Simon , F. WallisDeVries Michiel , Öckinger Erik 
Published: November 2023

AbstractBiodiversity monitoring in agricultural landscapes is important for assessing the effects of both land use change and activities that influence farmland biodiversity. Despite a considerable increase in citizen science approaches to biodiversity monitoring in recent decades, their potential in farmland-specific contexts has not been systematically examined. This paper therefore provides a comprehensive review of existing citizen science approaches involving biodiversity monitoring on farmland. Using three complementary methods, we identify a range of programmes at least partially covering farmland. From these, we develop a typology of eight programme types, reflecting distinctions in types of data collected and nature of volunteer involvement, and highlight their respective strengths and limitations. While all eight types can make substantial contributions to farmland biodiversity monitoring, there is considerable scope for their further development—particularly through increased engagement of farmers, for whom receiving feedback on the effects of their own practices could help facilitate adaptive management.
Interventions to increase circularity and reduce environmental impacts in food systems
Authors: van Selm Benjamin , van Zanten Hannah H. E. , Hijbeek Renske , van Middelaar Corina E. , Schop Marijke , van Ittersum Martin K. , de Boer Imke J. M. 
Published: November 2023

AbstractApplying specific circularity interventions to the food system may have environmental benefits. Using an iterative linear food system optimisation model (FOODSOM), we assess how changes in human diets, imports and exports, and the utilisation of waste streams impact land use and greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). After including these circularity principles, land use and GHG emissions were on average 40% and 68% lower than in the current food system, primarily driven by a reduction in production volumes and a shift towards feeding the domestic population. Shifting from the current diet to a circular diet decreased land use with 43% and GHG emissions with 52%. Allowing up to half of each nutrient in the human diet to be imported, while balancing imports with equal exports in terms of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium, also decreased land use (up to 34%) and GHG emissions (up to 26%) compared to no imported food. Our findings show that circularity interventions should not be implemented mutually exclusively; by combining a circular diet with imported food and fully utilising waste streams, the lowest land use and GHG emissions can be realised.