bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Mixture Models in Measurement Error Problems, with Reference to Epidemiological Studies
Authors: Richardson Sylvia , Leblond Laurent , Jaussent Isabelle , Green Peter J. 
Published: March 2003

SummaryThe paper focuses on a Bayesian treatment of measurement error problems and on the question of the specification of the prior distribution of the unknown covariates. It presents a flexible semiparametric model for this distribution based on a mixture of normal distributions with an unknown number of components. Implementation of this prior model as part of a full Bayesian analysis of measurement error problems is described in classical set-ups that are encountered in epidemiological studies: logistic regression between unknown covariates and outcome, with a normal or log-normal error model and a validation group. The feasibility of this combined model is tested and its performance is demonstrated in a simulation study that includes an assessment of the influence of misspecification of the prior distribution of the unknown covariates and a comparison with the semiparametric maximum likelihood method of Roeder, Carroll and Lindsay. Finally, the methodology is illustrated on a data set on coronary heart disease and cholesterol levels in blood.
Remembrances of Things Past: Test–Retest Reliability of Retrospective Migration Histories
Authors: Smith James P. , Thomas Duncan 
Published: March 2003

SummaryMatched retrospective life history data collected from the same individuals in two waves of the Malaysian Family Life Survey provide a unique opportunity to evaluate the quality of long-term recall data in a rapidly changing developing country. Recall quality, measured by consistency of incidence and dating of moves reported 12 years apart, is higher among the better educated. Respondents better remember more salient moves, those linked with other important life events such as marriage, childbirth or a job change and moves that lasted a long time. Migrations that dim in memory as time passes are typically shorter duration or local moves, often made while the respondent was young. The dating of moves is also significantly improved when linked with other salient events. Our findings suggest concrete and practical steps that can be followed to improve the quality of retrospective life-histories collected in field surveys.
Measurement Error Evaluation of Self-Reported Drug Use: A Latent Class Analysis of the US National Household Survey on Drug Abuse
Authors: Biemer Paul P. , Wiesen Christopher 
Published: March 2003

SummaryLatent class analysis (LCA) is a statistical tool for evaluating the error in categorical data when two or more repeated measurements of the same survey variable are available. This paper illustrates an application of LCA for evaluating the error in self-reports of drug use using data from the 1994, 1995 and 1996 implementations of the US National Household Survey on Drug Abuse. In our application, the LCA approach is used for estimating classification errors which in turn leads to identifying problems with the questionnaire and adjusting estimates of prevalence of drug use for classification error bias. Some problems in using LCA when the indicators of the use of a particular drug are embedded in a single survey questionnaire, as in the National Household Survey on Drug Abuse, are also discussed.
Unbiased Estimation of Central Moments by using U-statistics
Authors: Heffernan Peter M. 
Published: March 2003

Summary
We obtain an estimator of the rth central moment of a distribution, which is unbiased for all distributions for which the first r moments exist. We do this by finding the kernel which allows the rth central moment to be written as a regular statistical functional. The U-statistic associated with this kernel is the unique symmetric unbiased estimator of the rth central moment, and, for each distribution, it has minimum variance among all estimators which are unbiased for all these distributions.
Robust Models in Probability Sampling
Authors: Firth D. , Bennett K. E. 
Published: March 2003

Summary
In the estimation of a population mean or total from a random sample, certain methods based on linear models are known to be automatically design consistent, regardless of how well the underlying model describes the population. A sufficient condition is identified for this type of robustness to model failure; the condition, which we call ‘internal bias calibration’, relates to the combination of a model and the method used to fit it. Included among the internally bias-calibrated models, in addition to the aforementioned linear models, are certain canonical link generalized linear models and nonparametric regressions constructed from them by a particular style of local likelihood fitting. Other models can often be made robust by using a suboptimal fitting method. Thus the class of model-based, but design consistent, analyses is enlarged to include more realistic models for certain types of survey variable such as binary indicators and counts. Particular applications discussed are the estimation of the size of a population subdomain, as arises in tax auditing for example, and the estimation of a bootstrap tail probability.
The Covariance Inflation Criterion for Adaptive Model Selection
Authors: Tibshirani Robert , Knight Keith 
Published: March 2003

Summary
We propose a new criterion for model selection in prediction problems. The covariance inflation criterion adjusts the training error by the average covariance of the predictions and responses, when the prediction rule is applied to permuted versions of the data set. This criterion can be applied to general prediction problems (e.g. regression or classification) and to general prediction rules (e.g. stepwise regression, tree-based models and neural nets). As a by-product we obtain a measure of the effective number of parameters used by an adaptive procedure. We relate the covariance inflation criterion to other model selection procedures and illustrate its use in some regression and classification problems. We also revisit the conditional bootstrap approach to model selection.
Local Sensitivity Approximations for Selectivity Bias
Authors: Copas John , Eguchi Shinto 
Published: March 2003

Summary
Observational data analysis is often based on tacit assumptions of ignorability or randomness. The paper develops a general approach to local sensitivity analysis for selectivity bias, which aims to study the sensitivity of inference to small departures from such assumptions. If M is a model assuming ignorability, we surround M by a small neighbourhood N defined in the sense of Kullback–Leibler divergence and then compare the inference for models in N with that for M. Interpretable bounds for such differences are developed. Applications to missing data and to observational comparisons are discussed. Local approximations to sensitivity analysis are model robust and can be applied to a wide range of statistical problems.
Comparison of Approaches for Estimating the Probability of Coastal Flooding
Authors: Bruun John T. , Tawn Jonathan A. 
Published: March 2003

SUMMARY
Coastal flooding is typically caused by combinations of extreme water-levels and large waves. Two extreme value methods, one univariate and the other multivariate, have been used for estimating the probability of coastal flooding at an existing flood defence structure and for aiding the design of a new structure. The properties of these two methods are compared in terms of extrapolation, sophistication and use of information for a range of extremal dependence structures. We find that, when applied to the assessment of the safety offered by an existing Dutch dike, the multivariate approach provides the more useful and accurate design information and has the substantial benefits of consistency and reduced statistical analysis when applied to several sites along a Dutch coastline.
Controlling Processes in Food Technology by Simplifying the Canonical form of Fitted Response Surfaces
Authors: Gilmour Steven G. , Ringrose Trevor J. 
Published: March 2003

SUMMARY
Second-order response surfaces are often fitted to the results of designed experiments, and the canonical form of such surfaces can greatly help both in interpreting the results and in deciding what action to take on the process under study. A mixing process on pastry dough is described in which it is desired to simplify the canonical form to make the control of the process more economical, by basing it on only two of the three factors. We give examples where a simplification is possible with minimal loss of accuracy and where it can be seriously misleading, and we outline the features of the response surface that lead to these two situations. A method of improving the simplification by recalculating the constrained canonical axis is proposed. These methods ensure that the mixing process can be controlled by using only two factors without seriously lowering the quality of the pastry.
Difference Variance Dispersion Graphs for Comparing Response Surface Designs with Applications in Food Technology
Authors: Trinca Luzia A. , Gilmour Steven G. 
Published: March 2003

SUMMARY
Variance dispersion graphs have become a popular tool in aiding the choice of a response surface design. Often differences in response from some particular point, such as the expected position of the optimum or standard operating conditions, are more important than the response itself. We describe two examples from food technology. In the first, an experiment was conducted to find the levels of three factors which optimized the yield of valuable products enzymatically synthesized from sugars and to discover how the yield changed as the levels of the factors were changed from the optimum. In the second example, an experiment was conducted on a mixing process for pastry dough to discover how three factors affected a number of properties of the pastry, with a view to using these factors to control the process. We introduce the difference variance dispersion graph (DVDG) to help in the choice of a design in these circumstances. The DVDG for blocked designs is developed and the examples are used to show how the DVDG can be used in practice. In both examples a design was chosen by using the DVDG, as well as other properties, and the experiments were conducted and produced results that were useful to the experimenters. In both cases the conclusions were drawn partly by comparing responses at different points on the response surface.
Allowing for Non-Ignorable Non-Response in the Analysis of Voting Intention Data
Authors: Smith Peter W. F. , Skinner Chris J. , Clarke Paul S. 
Published: March 2003

SUMMARY
We apply some log-linear modelling methods, which have been proposed for treating non-ignorable non-response, to some data on voting intention from the British General Election Survey. We find that, although some non-ignorable non-response models fit the data very well, they may generate implausible point estimates and predictions. Some explanation is provided for the extreme behaviour of the maximum likelihood estimates for the most parsimonious model. We conclude that point estimates for such models must be treated with great caution. To allow for the uncertainty about the non-response mechanism we explore the use of profile likelihood inference and find the likelihood surfaces to be very flat and the interval estimates to be very wide. To reduce the width of these intervals we propose constraining confidence regions to values where the parameters governing the non-response mechanism are plausible and study the effect of such constraints on inference. We find that the widths of these intervals are reduced but remain wide.
Nonparametric Calibration for Age Estimation
Authors: Lucy D. , Aykroyd R. G. , Pollard A. M. 
Published: March 2003

SUMMARY
A method is proposed for the calibration of a continuous random variable when the dependent variables are a combination of continuous and categorical, and the model between the controlling variables and calibrated variable is empirically derived. The various probability distributions are estimated from training data by using kernel density procedures with bi-variate normal kernels for continuous variables and uniform smoothing for discrete variables. Bayes's theorem is then used to produce the posterior distribution from which point estimates and estimates of confidence may be made. Individual posterior densities allow each case to be considered separately and cases with conflicting evidence can easily be identified for further investigation. This approach is illustrated by using part of a data set of human adult teeth from individuals of known age. Estimates from the method proposed show less bias than those from the widely used multiple regression. This allows a more accurate reconstruction of the age distributions of ancient populations. In particular bias reduction is most notable at the extreme ages, which also tend to be the least frequent, thereby widening the age distribution. This will allow a more reliable consideration of archaeological and anthropological questions relating to, for example, the maximum lifespan, age-related social structure and the development of age-related disease.
Modelling Subjective Use of an Ordinal Response Scale in a Many Period Crossover Experiment
Authors: Wolfe Rory , Firth David 
Published: March 2003

SUMMARYThe analysis of psychoacoustic experiments in telecommunications research motivates the modelling of a repeated ordinal response by using logit models in which subject effects are both additive and multiplicative. Estimation by maximum likelihood and using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods is discussed, and the results are compared. The models and methods used are of potential value in many other applied contexts which involve a subjective interpretation of response category labels.
A Parametric Dynamic Survival Model Applied to Breast Cancer Survival Times
Authors: Hemming K. , Shaw J. E. H. 
Published: March 2003

SummaryMuch current analysis of cancer registry data uses the semiparametric proportional hazards Cox model. In this paper, the time-dependent effect of various prognostic indicators on breast cancer survival times from the West Midlands Cancer Intelligence Unit are investigated. Using Bayesian methodology and Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation methods, we develop a parametric dynamic survival model which avoids the proportional hazards assumption. The model has close links to that developed by both Gamerman and Sinha and co-workers: the log-base-line hazard and covariate effects are piecewise constant functions, related between intervals by a simple stochastic evolution process. Here this evolution is assigned a parametric distribution, with a variance that is further included as a hyperparameter. To avoid problems of convergence within the Gibbs sampler, we consider using a reparameterization. It is found that, for some of the prognostic indicators considered, the estimated effects change with increasing follow-up time. In general those prognostic indicators which are thought to be representative of the most hazardous groups (late-staged tumour and oldest age group) have a declining effect.
Domestic Violence, Character, And Social Change In The Welfare Reform Debate
Authors: Meier Joan 
Published: March 2003

This article addresses the recently discovered connection between domestic violence and welfare dependency.“ Empirical research among welfare populations shows that over 50% of women receiving welfare are or have recently been battered, and that partner abuse is a major reason for the continuing poverty of many women.The question the author asks and begins to answer is why this connection has not previously been identified or publicized by either the battered women’s movement or the anti‐poverty movement, and what the challenge may be to both movements as they attempt to address it in the context of welfare reform. The author argues that the connection has not been previously addressed because of the somewhat conflicting ideologies underlying both movements. The battered women’s movement is defined in part by its strong moral denunciation of male abusers and assertion of the victimization of women by men. The anti‐poverty movement is reluctant to demonize half of the poor population, particularly in light of the conservative welfare reformers’ emphasis on ”character“ as the main cause of poverty. The article argues that we must – and can – find a way to synthesize the feminist emphasis on interpersonal justice and morality with the anti‐poverty movement’s recognition of the larger social causes of poverty. The perspectives of both movements must be enlarged to recognize the multiple layers of victimization which poor women and men endure; and both movements will be revitalized by this cross‐fertilization.
Employers' Benefits from Workers' Health Insurance
Authors: O'Brien Ellen 
Published: March 2003

Most nonelderly americans receive theirhealth insurance coverage through their workplace. Almost all large firms offer a health insurance plan, and even though they face greater barriers to providing coverage, so do the majority of very small firms. These employment‐based plans cover two‐thirds of nonelderly Americans and pay most of working families' expenses for health care and about one‐quarter of national health spending. Despite employers' role in the health insurance market, however, very little attention has been paid to employers' motivations for providing health insurance to workers. Whydoemployers offer health insurance to workers? Is it because workers want it? Because their unions demand it? Or do employers offer health benefits to workers because their productivity and profitability depend on it?The standard economic theory of the availability of employer‐provided health insurance focuses on worker demand (Cutler 1997;Pauly 1997;Summers 1989).Even though many employers believe that health insurance and health affect employees' productivity and firms' performance, health economists typically overlook and rarely measure firms' returns on health‐related investments. Some research, however, suggests that firms may benefit economically by providing health insurance coverage for workers and their families. For example, health coverage may help employers recruit and retain high‐quality workers. Health may contribute to productivity by reducing the costs of absenteeism and turnover and by increasing workers' productivity. This article reviews the evidence and proposes an agenda for future research. A better understanding of the benefits to employers of offering health coverage to workers may help clarify employers' behavior and help private employers and public officials make appropriate investments in health.
5. “Inside the Sausage Factory”: The Singular Case of the Congressional Budget Office
Authors: Nexon David 
Published: March 2003

The article by Sherry Glied and her colleagues must have been a revelation to everyone in the policy arena who believed that estimates of the cost and effect of health insurance expansions had more to do with science than with art. The level of disagreement among modelers on the most fundamental assumptions involved in such estimates is stunning.The recommendations made in that article strike me as commonsense methods of improving the consistency—if not necessarily the accuracy—of modeling the cost and effects of proposed policies. To start with, making modelers' key assumptions transparent should have beneficial effects. By illuminating major differences in assumptions that result in different estimates, transparency could lead to a more open debate and greater consensus among modelers, as well as a better understanding by policymakers of the estimates' limitations.For those people drafting legislative proposals to expand health insurance coverage, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO)'s estimate is not just an estimate; it is the estimate, because members of Congress accept the CBO's estimates as the gold standard.
Review Essay: The History of Israel Contested and Revised
Authors: Ollenburger Ben C. 
Published: March 2003

Books reviewed in this article:Philip R. Davies, In Search of ‘Ancient Israel’Philip R. Davies, Scribes and Scrolls: The Canonization of the Hebrew ScripturesLester L. Grabbe (ed.), Can a ‘History of Israel’ Be Written?Niels Peter Lemche, The Israelites in History and TraditionV. Philips Long (ed.), Israel's Past in Present Research: Essays on Ancient Israelite HistoriographyThomas L. Thompson, The Mythic Past: Biblical Archaeology and the Myth of Israel
Record‐keepers in the Court of Chancery and their ‘Record’ of Accomplishment in the Seventeenth and Eighteenth Centuries
Authors: Horwitz Henry 
Published: March 2003

Abstract
This article describes the conflict over authority and fees which came to a head in 1791 between two groups of officials within the court of chancery, the Sworn Clerks and the Six Clerks, and considers how far the recurrent conflict adversely affected the preservation of the court's records. It gives an account of record‐keeping in the context of these clashes and explores the surviving records of chancery equity proceedings in the Public Record Office. Users of these records are alerted that, although voluminous, they are far from complete.
The Making of the 1279–80 Hundred Rolls*
Authors: Raban Sandra 
Published: March 2003

Abstract
Approaches to the making of Domesday Book are here brought to bear on the surviving texts of the 1279–80 hundred roll inquiry. The scope and intention of the enterprise are examined together with the process of compilation and editing. The study necessarily draws on the original manuscripts as well as printed editions and identifies the articles of inquiry, together with features which indicate that the commissioners drew on a variety of sources for their data. Findings set an agenda for further work on this complex, important, but relatively neglected source.
Winston Churchill, Mark Sykes and the Dardanelles Campaign of 1915
Authors: Capern Amanda L. 
Published: March 2003

Abstract
In the Brynmor Jones Library, University of Hull, the draft and two carbon copies of a letter from Mark Sykes to Winston Churchill dated 27 January 1915 are catalogued as DDSY(2)/4/81. The top‐copy of this letter no longer seems to exist; it does not appear in Martin Gilbert's companion volume for Churchill 1914–16 and is not used in his biographical account of those years. It also was not used by Roger Adelson when he wrote his biography of Mark Sykes in 1975. The letter is important in two ways. First, it indicates that Mark Sykes may have had some influence on Churchill's thinking in late January and early February 1915 while he was planning the naval assault on the Dardanelles. Second, this letter from Mark Sykes contains echoes of the concept of a soft ‘underbelly’ of Europe later popularized by Churchill in a speech of 1942.
The Travails of Domestic Visiting: Manchester, 1830–70
Authors: Hewitt Martin 
Published: March 2003

Abstract
This article seeks to re-examine mid nineteenth century ‘home missionary’ activity or domestic visiting. It focuses on Manchester, a typical urban case in that it could boast an almost bewildering array of associations which sponsored such visiting, whose supporters were ever willing to laud the impact of their activities. It argues, however, that closer examination suggests that the feverish activity and public vindications masked deep flaws. The social geography of the city prevented them from either covering the whole community or from visiting comprehensively within those areas which were occupied. The visits were asked to bear an ideological load which far outstripped their capacity. While missionaries could help sustain a vibrant and significant minority religious sub-culture in the ‘slums’, they were scarcely the agents of social discipline suggested by recent commentators.