bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
On the Formation of Travel Demand Models and Economic Evaluation Measures of User Benefit
Authors: Williams H C W L 
Published: October 2006

This paper examines a variety of issues within the context of two main themes: the formation of travel demand models and economic evaluation measures which are mutually consistent within a theory of rational choice; and a consideration of the structure of models which are representations of the trip decision process over several dimensions: location, mode, and route. Random utility theory is invoked to explore both the role and properties of composite costs or index prices in the ‘recursive’ approach to the structuring of travel choice models, and their significance in the economic evaluation problem. It is shown that the specification of these costs must be made very precisely, with respect to the demand model form chosen, in order to retain the underlying assumption that the traveller is an optimal decisionmaker. It is argued that the structure of ‘simultaneous’ models currently in use is inconsistent with the form of utility function assumed to generate those models. Furthermore, it is shown that the ‘simultaneous’ and ‘recursive’ forms are special cases of a more general choice model structure which takes specific account of correlation or ‘commonality’ of trip attributes. A number of applications are discussed in which consistent demand models and perceived user benefit measures are constructed. These include the formation of strategic transport planning models and of models for mixed-mode, multimode, and multiroute systems. The formalism allows definitive answers to be given to a number of problems of current interest in transportation planning, which have been incorrectly or incompletely treated.
Air Pollution and Vegetation Damage Functions
Authors: Liu B-C , Yu E S H 
Published: October 2006

The primary objective of this paper is to review critically the current state of research in the field of air pollution and its effect on vegetation and to derive, through existing data and documentation, a set of integrated economic damage functions of air pollution on various kinds of vegetation, for the purpose of prediction. Economic damage functions of vegetation were estimated via a stepwise least-squares regression method by relating economic losses of a variety of crops to air pollution and climatological variables. The crops and agricultural products selected included corn grain, soybean, cotton, root vegetables, other vegetables, nursery products, flowers, trees, field crops, and fruit and nuts. By utilizing the ‘average’ economic damage functions derived in this study, the changes in crop losses brought about by changes in the pollution or climatological variables can be predicted.
The Limits of the Plannable: Stability and Complexity in Planning and Planned Systems
Authors: Chadwick G F 
Published: October 2006

The paper considers work by Gardner and Ashby on the relationship between the connectivity of large systems and their stability, which suggests that all large complex dynamic systems will have a critical level of connectance beyond which they will go suddenly unstable. Further evidence by May on ecological systems supports this view. Reliability in systems, that is maintenance of stability of critical values over long periods of time, is held by Ashby to flow from such systems not being fully joined or connected. It is suggested that these considerations must apply also to attempts to plan and control the future of socioeconomic systems, both in relation to the planned system itself, and to the planning system which tries to invoke requisite variety to control the planned system. Stable systems in planning are thus seen as small, probably subsystemic in nature, not fully-joined, and hence hierarchical in structure. ‘Central’ planning results in instability because of size and complexity of control systems needed, and ‘equality’ is not a sustainable concept, as it requires or implies full connectedness. Finally, three kinds of system situations are put forward as representing gradations of stability and thus of ‘plannability’ or design possibility. These situations tend to show the limits of the plannable.
Developer Decisionmaking in the Residential Land Acquisition Process: A Generalised Model Based on the Sydney Experience
Authors: Harmer J A , Webb D J 
Published: October 2006

The residential developer has been the predominant agent in the structural growth of Australian metropolitan areas in the past fifteen years. This paper attempts to place developer decisionmaking into a perspective through which it is possible to make deductions about the pattern of residential growth from a knowledge of individual behaviour. From a series of interviews with a sample of developers engaged in residential subdivision on the fringe of metropolitan Sydney, a model is developed that structures the way in which investment and location considerations interact in relation to institutional and economic constraints at various stages of decisionmaking in the land acquisition process. The implications of the model are that developer behaviour is a reaction to the constraints imposed by the various government and institutional regulations and that his particular location preferences are conditioned by these. These constraints have spatial implications because the behavioural processes underlying the developer's reaction to them provide important insights into the changing spatial form of the city.
Energy Costs, the Transport Network, and Urban Form
Authors: Dendrinos D S 
Published: October 2006

The paper examines, through comparative statics, the impact on urban form of changes in the price of energy used for transportation. Two specific models are analyzed within a framework of long-run equilibrium: Model 1 involves households that supply an institutionally fixed number of labor hours, and their choice of residential location is affected by energy costs as the only out-of-pocket transportation cost for the journey to work; and model 2 deals with households that trade off travel time for work time and thus incur a time cost equal to the forgone income from production. The paper shows that in model 1 higher gasoline prices do result in less aggregate demand for gasoline and in less suburbanization of the residential activity. In model 2 higher energy prices do not necessarily result in either less suburbanization or less aggregate demand for gasoline.
Energy and Transport: Strategies for Energy Conservation in Urban Passenger Transport
Authors: Schou Kirsten 
Published: October 2006

Before proceeding to explore potential strategies for energy conservation in urban passenger transport, this paper presents some evidence on energy efficiencies of various transport modes and on travel behaviour under energy constraints. Knowledge of the relative energy efficiencies of different modes of transport is evidently necessary for analysing and developing policies for fuel conservation. Although the automobile does appear to be significantly more energy-intensive than public transport modes, this does not automatically indicate that a policy to attract people to public transport would lead to the maximum possible fuel savings. Available evidence on travel behaviour under energy constraints indicates that the elasticity of travel demand is very small. Increasing prices, within the range expected, are not likely to result in satisfactory fuel savings, and it is therefore necessary to consider alternative strategies. The strategies to be considered here may be outlined as follows: (1) improving fuel efficiency of automobiles by modifying driving habits, reducing speeds, improving traffic flows, and keeping vehicles properly maintained; (2) increasing efficiency of automobile travel by promoting higher occupancies; (3) attracting car travellers to public transport; (4) shifting to smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles, changing vehicle and engine designs such as to improve the inherent fuel efficiency of the automobile; (5) technological change: new propulsion systems, alternative fuels, and rapid personal transport; (6) reducing travel needs by changing land-use patterns and improving communications. These strategies are discussed in turn and, given the available information about travel patterns and behaviour, an attempt is made to assess their likely impact. Clearly those strategies should be selected which offer the maximum potential fuel savings and which can be introduced with minimum sacrifice.
An Introduction to Generalised Functional Form and Random Coefficients in Transport Modelling
Authors: Johnson L W 
Published: October 2006

There are two developments in statistical methodology which have been examined extensively in the econometrics and statistics literature but have not been applied to a great extent in transportation research. These are the use of generalised functional form in regression problems, and random-coefficient techniques. The purposes of this paper are to present a brief survey of these areas, to examine the uses of these techniques on transport-related topics, and to suggest further applications of the procedures to transport. The exposition of these areas includes more intuitive than technical derivation, in order to make the paper as accessible as possible.
Multistate Dynamics: The Convergence of an Age-by-Region Population System
Authors: Liaw K-L 
Published: October 2006

This paper uses Rogers's (1975) discrete model of multiregional demographic growth to study the convergence properties of a fourteen-age-group, eight-region, female Canadian population system, which is subject to the 1966–1971 age-specific rates of births, deaths, and interregional migration. The focus is on (1) the changes in the age-by-region population distribution and (2) the evolution of regional growth and component rates. For the youngest age group, the fluctuations in regional population size are almost entirely determined by a small number of low-frequency and long-durability cyclical components. As age increases, the high-frequency and short-durability cyclical components tend to play a more important role. The half-lives of major cyclical components are related to the shapes of regional fertility schedules. The legacy of the postwar baby boom is nationwide, so that the population waves in different regions tend to have similar phases and periodicities. The slow and persistent spatial convergence is noncyclical, but one region overshoots and two others undershoot their respective long-run regional shares. Over a hundred years the convergence toward the long-run regional age profiles is practically completed, while the spatial convergence has gone only halfway. The difference in sensitivity among regional birth, death, in-migration, and out-migration rates to moving population waves and changing slopes of regional age profiles depends on the characteristics of regional schedules of fertility, mortality, and interregional migration. The persistent interregional contrast in growth rates is mainly determined by the relative competitiveness in the interregional migration transaction. The fluctuations of regional growth rates are dominated by the cyclical pattern of regional birth rates in early stages and by the fluctuations of regional death rates in later stages. The interpretation of long-run (intrinsic) regional in-migration or net migration rates as indices of regional attractiveness or competitiveness can be more misleading than the interpretation of long-run regional death rates as indices of regional mortality.
Spatial Dynamics: Some Conceptual and Mathematical Issues
Authors: Liossatos P 
Published: October 2006

Spatial dynamics—the study of the spatiotemporal dimension of socioeconomic activities—is grounded on highly questionable premises. These are implicit or explicit philosophical theses regarding knowledge (empiricism) and society (methodological individualism). As a consequence of these premises—it is argued—the scientific knowledge of social phenomena becomes problematic if not impossible. It is further demonstrated that the dominant paradigm in the social sciences (based on empiricism and individualism) is not the only possible one. A fairly comprehensive overview of an alternative is presented, which draws upon recent advances in Marxian theory. In this perspective, the constitution and transformation of spatial configurations cannot be understood in terms of observable spatial relations; as social forms, spatial patterns must be explained in terms of the dynamics of the underlying social structure. Accordingly, ‘spatial dynamics’ must be reconstructed as the dynamics of spatial forms: the study of the formation and transformation of spatial configurations as expressions of the expanded reproduction of the capitalist mode of production in capitalist social formations. It is further argued—from the very nature of the capitalist process—that the transformation of spatial forms should be viewed as a process of evolution through instabilities and fluctuations. Accordingly, there is a sound theoretical motivation for experimenting with ‘dissipative structures’ and catastrophe theory. The basic ideas of nonequilibrium thermodynamics and dissipative structures are presented via two simple mathematical models. The latter do not intend to formalize Marx's or Schumpeter's theory. Their only function in the discourse of this paper is to illustrate how the ideas of structural determination, crises, and qualitative change can be captured in rigorous mathematical terms.
A Dynamic Accounting Model of Intrametropolitan Household Relocation
Authors: Varaprasad N 
Published: October 2006

This paper demonstrates the use of a dynamic accounting framework of the kinetic type for modelling the intrametropolitan relocation of households. Households are classified into five different categories, and each is subject to a transition matrix, the elements of which are functions of the changing availability of housing stock and job supply, and the different preferences for these of the different households categories. A three-zone concentric configuration was used, and the model was calibrated for the South-East standard region with the use of data for 1961, 1966, 1971, and 1976. The model was then run until 1991 with alternative combinations of projections of strategic exogenous variables such as transport costs, job supply, and housing stock availability. Although the model appears oversensitive to the changes in the number of households in each zone and arrives at an equilibrium distribution quickly, it suggests a research strategy to determine the nature of the elements of the transition matrices. The model also illustrates that it is possible to use the dynamic accounting framework of kinetic theory to embody any given hypothesis of movement.
The Family of Goals-Achievement Matrix Methods: Respectable Enough for Citizen Participation in Planning?
Authors: Sager T 
Published: October 2006

This article examines the problems of location and land rent within the framework of a linear and multisector production model in a radioconcentric space. In the case of a single product, the order of the differential fertility and location rent is examined. This order is neither given nor natural, but depends especially on the distribution. Formulating a spatial equilibrium with n goods where several qualities of soil exist raises a number of difficulties. When several techniques are used to manufacture a product then it is shown how different techniques are located in relation to the centre according to prices and the distribution variables. The manner in which a new technique is introduced and spreads in space is also examined. The predominant method used for evaluation in British structure planning compares strategies in terms of their achievement of particular criteria derived from community objectives. A recent survey shows that of the traditional evaluation techniques only modified goals-achievement matrix (GAM) methods are widely used in structure planning. This approach is also applied to local and project oriented planning processes where citizen participation seems even more necessary. The goals-achievement matrix was not presented by its originator—M Hill—as an entirely unambiguous method. It can be interpreted as a set of significantly diverging variants which are used here for three purposes: to show that economists' critique of GAM is too general, to clarify the connections between GAM and other well-known evaluation methods, and to discuss how GAM could best be structured for use in local participatory planning.
The Employment of Migrant Workers in the Belgian Economy: A Structural Phenomenon
Authors: Moulaert F , Philips F 
Published: October 2006

An attempt is made to give a statistical answer to the question: “Has the employment of migrant workers in Belgium a purely structural or rather a mixed (that is, both structural and cyclical) character?” Indicators of structural and cyclical economic development are used to examine which of two sets of regressions provides the best statistical explanation of the evolution of total employment of migrant workers over time. The first set contains regressions constructed in terms of indicators of structural development only, whereas the second set consists of regressions specified in terms of both types of indicators. It is found that including cyclical indicators into the specification does not meaningfully contribute to the statistical explanation of the employment of migrant workers. However, mixed specifications including the lagged dependent variable demonstrate a slight superiority for a number of individual coefficient statistics.
Probabilistic Demands and Costs in Facility Location Problems
Authors: Mirchandani P B , Oudjit A 
Published: October 2006

When deterministic assumptions in ‘classical’ location problems are relaxed some new theoretical and algorithmic problems arise. In this paper, the definition of medians is generalized to the cases: (1) when generated demands and travel costs are random, and (2) when the demand induced at the facilities is random because of competition. Under a particular set of assumptions, the well-known theorems on ‘optimality of node locations' hold for the underlying ‘probabilistic networks’. For case (1) the model is shown to be a generalization of the probabilistic and deterministic median location problems on networks. The relationship of the model to a multicommodity location problem is also pointed out. Additionally, within the framework of the problem formulation, certain parallels with multiobjective location problems are drawn. For case (2), the competitive median location problem is formulated, and some results presented. For the special structure of probabilistic tree networks some interesting localization properties for the 1-median and 2-median are discussed.
An Examination of an Ecological Model of Neighborhood Change, Which Employs a Biased Estimation Technique
Authors: Schwab W A , Miller M K 
Published: October 2006

The problems created by multicollinearity when estimating a single equation least squares model are well-known. This problem is particularly troublesome in ecological research because of the heavy reliance of this field on census data and other secondary data sources. This paper explores one solution to the problem of multicollinearity in ecological research—ridge regression. Using census-tract data from Cleveland, Ohio for the years 1960–1970, an ecological model, known as the tipping-point model, of neighborhood change, was evaluated. It was determined that multicollinearity was a problem. To minimize the detrimental effects of multicollinearity and to facilitate structural interpretation, the model was reestimated with the ridge regression technique. The result was a total mean square error that was significantly smaller than the total variance resulting from an ordinary least squares solution. Hence, the estimates of the coefficients produced by the ridge regression were closer, on the average, to the true population parameters than the ordinary least squares estimates. Results of the ordinary least squares and ridge regression are presented and discussed and the utility of ridge regression in ecological research is evaluated.
A Model of Public Policy toward Office Relocation
Authors: Clapp J M 
Published: October 2006

When an office activity moves voluntarily in response to incentives provided by public policy, there is a presumption that the move benefits the relocating activity. But other activities may have to travel farther for face-to-face contact with the relocating activity; the resulting increases in transportation costs should be included in the system-wide effects of the relocation policy. A numerical example demonstrates that increases in system-wide costs can outweigh the benefits to the relocating activity. Empirical calibration of the model requires some modification of the contact diaries developed by Thorngren, Törnqvist, and others. Diary information is needed from activities which initiate contact with the relocating activity. Diary information on transportation costs for face-to-face contacts and for the journey to work can be used to conduct simulations of alternative relocation policies.
A Sociopsychological Contribution to the Theory of Individual Time-Allocation
Authors: Tonn B E 
Published: October 2006

Analysis of individual time-allocation will continue to increase as researchers link time-allocation behavior with transportation and energy demand, urban design, family organization, and other topics. Past research has not evolved a comprehensive theory of individual time-allocation. In this paper the author offers a series of social-psychological contributions to the development of a theory of individual time-allocation designed to provide a framework upon which to base time-allocation research. This paper is divided into four sections. In the first section are outlined three omniprevalent concerns which motivate human behavior. In the second section a three-part strategy is suggested which individuals utilize in the development of purposeful behavior. In the third section, six general exogenous factors which may affect time allocation are listed. Last, it is hypothesized that individuals synthesize concerns, strategy, and factors into the creation of an activity-based behavioral schedule.
Interpolation of Transition Matrices by the Variable Power Method
Authors: Liaw K-L 
Published: October 2006

In this paper the author introduces the variable power method that can be used to interpolate age-specific transition matrices of a quinquennial multiregional model of population change into those of an annual model. Beside being able to maintain consistency and non-negativity, this method is better than the well-known fifth-root method, because the former allows the mortality and mobility levels to change with age, whereas the latter does not. The variable power method is applied to the biregional model of Vancouver Census Metropolitan Area and the rest of Canada based on the 1971–1976 data. The empirical result suggests that the method may work equally well for multiregional models of other population systems.