bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Diagnosing Cloud Feedbacks in General Circulation Models
Authors: Zhu Ping , Hack James J. , Kiehl Jeffrey T. 
Published: June 2007

Abstract
In this study, it is shown that the NCAR and GFDL GCMs exhibit a marked difference in climate sensitivity of clouds and radiative fluxes in response to doubled CO2 and ±2-K SST perturbations. The GFDL model predicted a substantial decrease in cloud amount and an increase in cloud condensate in the warmer climate, but produced a much weaker change in net cloud radiative forcing (CRF) than the NCAR model. Using a multiple linear regression (MLR) method, the full-sky radiative flux change at the top of the atmosphere was successfully decomposed into individual components associated with the clear sky and different types of clouds. The authors specifically examined the cloud feedbacks due to the cloud amount and cloud condensate changes involving low, mid-, and high clouds between 60°S and 60°N. It was found that the NCAR and GFDL models predicted the same sign of individual longwave and shortwave feedbacks resulting from the change in cloud amount and cloud condensate for all three types of clouds (low, mid, and high) despite the different cloud and radiation schemes used in the models. However, since the individual longwave and shortwave feedbacks resulting from the change in cloud amount and cloud condensate generally have the opposite signs, the net cloud feedback is a subtle residual of all. Strong cancellations between individual cloud feedbacks may result in a weak net cloud feedback. This result is consistent with the findings of the previous studies, which used different approaches to diagnose cloud feedbacks. This study indicates that the proposed MLR approach provides an easy way to efficiently expose the similarity and discrepancy of individual cloud feedback processes between GCMs, which are hidden in the total cloud feedback measured by CRF. Most importantly, this method has the potential to be applied to satellite measurements. Thus, it may serve as a reliable and efficient method to investigate cloud feedback mechanisms on short-term scales by comparing simulations with available observations, which may provide a useful way to identify the cause for the wide spread of cloud feedbacks in GCMs.
El Niño–Southern Oscillation Simulation at 6000 Years before Present with the MRI-CGCM2.3: Effect of Flux Adjustment
Authors: Kitoh Akio , Motoi Tatsuo , Murakami Shigenori 
Published: June 2007

Abstract
Modulation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation at the mid-Holocene [6000 yr before present (6 ka)] is investigated with a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. The model is integrated for 300 yr with 6-ka and present (0 ka) insolation both with and without flux adjustment, and the effect of flux adjustment on the simulation of El Niño is investigated. The response in the equatorial Pacific Ocean in 6 ka is in favor of weaker El Niño variability resulting from lowered sea surface temperature (SST) and a more diffuse thermocline. Atmospheric sensitivity in 6 ka is larger than that in 0 ka because of increased trade winds, while oceanic sensitivity in 6 ka is weaker than that in 0 ka, resulting from destabilization of the upper ocean, both in the flux- and non-flux-adjusted experiments. However, the use of flux adjustment causes a difference in the total response. El Niño variability in 6 ka does not change much from that in 0 ka with the flux-adjusted case, while the 6-ka El Niño variability is weaker without flux adjustment. Because the observed proxy data suggest weaker El Niño variability in the mid-Holocene, the non-flux-adjusted version gives a more reasonable response despite a larger bias in its basic states, implying that nondistortion of sensitivity to forcing is more important.
Decadal Variability of the Kuroshio Extension: Observations and an Eddy-Resolving Model Hindcast*
Authors: Taguchi Bunmei , Xie Shang-Ping , Schneider Niklas , Nonaka Masami , Sasaki Hideharu , Sasai Yoshikazu 
Published: June 2007

Abstract
Low-frequency variability of the Kuroshio Extension (KE) is studied using observations and a multidecadal (1950–2003) hindcast by a high-resolution (0.1°), eddy-resolving, global ocean general circulation model for the Earth Simulator (OFES). In both the OFES hindcast and satellite altimeter observations, low-frequency sea surface height (SSH) variability in the North Pacific is high near the KE front. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis indicates that much of the SSH variability in the western North Pacific east of Japan is explained by two modes with meridional structures tightly trapped along the KE front. The first mode represents a southward shift and to a lesser degree, an acceleration of the KE jet associated with the 1976/77 shift in basin-scale winds. The second mode reflects quasi-decadal variations in the intensity of the KE jet. Both the spatial structure and time series of these modes derived from the hindcast are in close agreement with observations.
A linear Rossby wave model forced by observed wind successfully reproduces the time series of the leading OFES modes but fails to explain why their meridional structure is concentrated on the KE front and inconsistent with the broadscale wind forcing. Further analysis suggests that KE variability may be decomposed into broad- and frontal-scale components in the meridional direction—the former following the linear Rossby wave solution and the latter closely resembling ocean intrinsic modes derived from an OFES run forced by climatological winds. The following scenario is suggested for low-frequency KE variability: basin-scale wind variability excites broadscale Rossby waves, which propagate westward, triggering intrinsic modes of the KE jet and reorganizing SSH variability in space.
Interdecadal Sea Surface Temperature Variability in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. Part I: The Role of Off-Equatorial Wind Stresses and Oceanic Rossby Waves
Authors: McGregor Shayne , Holbrook Neil J. , Power Scott B. 
Published: June 2007

Abstract
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre CGCM and a linear first baroclinic-mode ocean shallow-water model (SWM) are used to investigate ocean dynamic forcing mechanisms of the equatorial Pacific Ocean interdecadal sea surface temperature (SST) variability. An EOF analysis of the 13-yr low-pass Butterworth-filtered SST anomalies from a century-time-scale CGCM simulation reveals an SST anomaly spatial pattern and time variability consistent with the interdecadal Pacific oscillation. Results from an SWM simulation forced with wind stresses from the CGCM simulation are shown to compare well with the CGCM, and as such the SWM is then used to investigate the roles of “uncoupled” equatorial wind stress forcing, off-equatorial wind stress forcing (OffEqWF), and Rossby wave reflection at the western Pacific Ocean boundary, on the decadal equatorial thermocline depth anomalies.
Equatorial Pacific wind stresses are shown to explain a large proportion of the overall variance in the equatorial thermocline depth anomalies. However, OffEqWF beyond 12.5° latitude produces an interdecadal signature in the Niño-4 (Niño-3) region that explains approximately 10% (1.5%) of the filtered control simulation variance. Rossby wave reflection at the western Pacific boundary is shown to underpin the OffEqWF contribution to these equatorial anomalies. The implications of this result for the predictability of the decadal variations of thermocline depth are investigated with results showing that OffEqWF generates an equatorial response in the Niño-3 region up to 3 yr after the wind stress forcing is switched off. Further, a statistically significant correlation is found between thermocline depth anomalies in the off-equatorial zone and the Niño-3 region, with the Niño-3 region lagging by approximately 2 yr. The authors conclude that there is potential predictability of the OffEqWF equatorial thermocline depth anomalies with lead times of up to 3 yr when taking into account the amplitudes and locations of off-equatorial region Rossby waves.
Statistical Prediction of Seasonal Mean Southern Hemisphere 500-hPa Geopotential Heights
Authors: Zheng Xiaogu , Frederiksen Carsten S. 
Published: June 2007

Abstract
A recently developed variance decomposition approach is applied to predict seasonal mean 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere. In terms of predictability of both the winter and summer height fields, the Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode are identified as the first and second most important factors affecting the variability.
Based on this study, a statistical prediction scheme has been developed. The linear trend in the leading empirical orthogonal function of the height field, the November Southern Annular Mode index, the austral spring Niño-3 index, and the November Coral Sea index are identified as the main predictors for the summer height field, while the March–May Southern Annular Mode index, the May Niño-4 index, and the austral autumn central Indian Ocean index are the main predictors for the winter height field. The predictive skill in forecasts of National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis 500-hPa geopotential height anomaly fields, in terms of a spatiotemporal anomaly correlation, is considerably higher than a single prediction achieved by a coupled general circulation seasonal forecast model.
Control of Dry Season Evapotranspiration over the Amazonian Forest as Inferred from Observations at a Southern Amazon Forest Site
Authors: Juárez Robinson I. Negrón , Hodnett Martin G. , Fu Rong , Goulden Michael L. , von Randow Celso 
Published: June 2007

Abstract
The extent to which soil water storage can support an average dry season evapotranspiration (ET) is investigated using observations from the Rebio Jarú site for the period of 2000 to 2002. During the dry season, when total rainfall is less than 100 mm, the soil moisture storage available to root uptake in the top 3-m layer is sufficient to maintain the ET rate, which is equal to or higher than that in the wet season. With a normal or less-than-normal dry season rainfall, more than 75% of the ET is supplied by soil water below 1 m, whereas during a rainier dry season, about 50% of ET is provided by soil water from below 1 m. Soil moisture below 1-m depth is recharged by rainfall during the previous wet season: dry season rainfall rarely infiltrates to this depth. These results suggest that, even near the southern edge of the Amazon forest, seasonal and moderate interannual rainfall deficits can be mitigated by an increase in root uptake from deeper soil.
How dry season ET varies geographically within the Amazon and what might control its geographic distribution are examined by comparing in situ observations from 10 sites from different areas of Amazonia reported during the last two decades. Results show that the average dry season ET varies less than 1 mm day−1 or 30% from the driest to nearly the wettest parts of Amazonia and is largely correlated with the change of surface net radiation of 25% and 30%. Thus the geographic variation of the average dry season ET appears to be mainly determined by the surface radiation.
Precipitation Distribution Associated with Landfalling Tropical Cyclones over the Eastern United States
Authors: Atallah Eyad , Bosart Lance F. , Aiyyer Anantha R. 
Published: June 2007

AbstractTropical cyclones (TCs) making landfall over the United States are examined by separating those associated with precipitation predominantly left of their tracks from those with the same to the right of their tracks. Composites of atmospheric variables for these two TC categories are performed and analyzed using potential vorticity (PV) and quasigeostrophic (QG) frameworks. Dynamical signatures are retrieved from these composites to help understand the evolution of precipitation in these storms. Results indicate that a left of track precipitation distribution (e.g., Floyd 1999) is characteristic of TCs undergoing extratropical transition (ET). In these cases, a positively tilted midlatitude trough approaches the TC from the northwest, shifting precipitation to the north-northwest of the TC. Potential vorticity redistribution through diabatic heating leads to enhanced ridging over and downstream of the TC, resulting in an increase in the cyclonic advection of vorticity by the thermal wind over the transitioning TC. A right of track precipitation distribution is characteristic of TCs interacting with a downstream ridge (e.g., David 1979). When the downstream ridge amplifies in response to TC-induced diabatic heating ahead of a weak midlatitude trough, the PV gradient between the TC and the downstream ridge is accentuated, producing a region of enhanced positive PV advection (and cyclonic vorticity advection by the thermal wind) over the TC. The diabatic enhancement of the downstream ridge is instrumental in the redistribution of precipitation about the transitioning TCs in both cases and poses a significant forecast challenge.
Identifying Cloud-Uncontaminated AIRS Spectra from Cloudy FOV Based on Cloud-Top Pressure and Weighting Functions
Authors: Carrier M. , Zou X. , Lapenta William M. 
Published: June 2007

Abstract
An effort is made to increase the number of Advanced Infrared Sounder (AIRS) cloud-uncontaminated infrared data for regional mesoscale data assimilation and short-term quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) applications. The cloud-top pressure from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) is utilized in combination with weighting functions (WFs) to develop a channel-based cloudy-data-removal algorithm. This algorithm identifies “clear channels” for which the brightness temperature (BT) values are not cloud contaminated. A channel-dependent cutoff pressure (COP) level is first determined based on the structure of the WF of each channel. It is usually below the maximum WF level. If the cloud top (as identified by a MODIS cloud mask) is above (below) the COP level of a channel, this channel is then deemed cloudy (clear) and removed (retained). Using this algorithm, a sizable increase of cloud-uncontaminated AIRS data can be obtained. There are more usable domain points for those channels with higher COP levels. A case study is conducted. It is shown that instead of having less than 20% AIRS clear-sky observations, the algorithm finds 80% (58%) of the AIRS pixels on which there are channels whose COP levels are at or above 300 hPa (500 hPa) and the BT data in these channels at these pixels are cloud uncontaminated. Such a significant increase of the usable AIRS cloud-uncontaminated data points is especially useful for regional mesoscale data assimilation and short-term QPF applications.
Lightning Frequency and Microphysical Properties of Precipitating Clouds over the Western North Pacific during Winter as Derived from TRMM Multisensor Observations
Authors: Kodama Yasu-Masa , Okabe Haruna , Tomisaka Yukie , Kotono Katsuya , Kondo Yoshimi , Kasuya Hideyuki 
Published: June 2007

Abstract
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission observations from multiple sensors including precipitation radar, microwave and infrared radiometers, and a lightning sensor were used to describe precipitation, lightning frequency, and microphysical properties of precipitating clouds over the midlatitude ocean. Precipitation over midlatitude oceans was intense during winter and was often accompanied by frequent lightning. Case studies over the western North Pacific from January and February 2000 showed that some lightning occurred in deep precipitating clouds that developed around cyclones and their attendant fronts. Lightning also occurred in convective clouds that developed in regions of large-scale subsidence behind extratropical cyclones where cold polar air masses were strongly heated and moistened from below by the ocean. The relationships between lightning frequency and the minimum polarization corrected temperature (PCT) at 37 and 85 GHz and the profile of the maximum radar reflectivity resembled relationships derived previously for cases in the Tropics. Smaller lapse rates in the maximum radar reflectivity above the melting level indicate vigorous convection that, although shallow and relatively rare, was as strong as convection over tropical oceans. Lightning was most frequent in systems for which the minimum PCT at 37 GHz was less than 260 K. Lightning and PCT at 85 GHz were not as well correlated as lightning and PCT at 37 GHz. Thus, lightning was frequent in convective clouds that contained many large hydrometeors in the mixed-phase layer, because PCT is more sensitive to large hydrometeors at 37 than at 85 GHz. The relationship between lightning occurrence and cloud-top heights derived from infrared observations was not straightforward. Microphysical conditions that support lightning over the midlatitude ocean in winter were similar to conditions in the Tropics and are consistent with Takahashi’s theory of riming electrification.
Extension of 3DVAR to 4DVAR: Implementation of 4DVAR at the Meteorological Service of Canada
Authors: Gauthier Pierre , Tanguay Monique , Laroche Stéphane , Pellerin Simon , Morneau Josée 
Published: June 2007

Abstract
On 15 March 2005, the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) proceeded to the implementation of a four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) system, which led to significant improvements in the quality of global forecasts. This paper describes the different elements of MSC’s 4DVAR assimilation system, discusses some issues encountered during the development, and reports on the overall results from the 4DVAR implementation tests. The 4DVAR system adopted an incremental approach with two outer iterations. The simplified model used in the minimization has a horizontal resolution of 170 km and its simplified physics includes vertical diffusion, surface drag, orographic blocking, stratiform condensation, and convection. One important element of the design is its modularity, which has permitted continued progress on the three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) component (e.g., addition of new observation types) and the model (e.g., computational and numerical changes). This paper discusses some numerical problems that occur in the vicinity of the Poles where the semi-Lagrangian scheme becomes unstable when there is a simultaneous occurrence of converging meridians and strong wind gradients. These could be removed by filtering the winds in the zonal direction before they are used to estimate the upstream position in the semi-Lagrangian scheme. The results show improvements in all aspects of the forecasts over all regions. The impact is particularly significant in the Southern Hemisphere where 4DVAR is able to extract more information from satellite data. In the Northern Hemisphere, 4DVAR accepts more asynoptic data, in particular coming from profilers and aircrafts. The impact noted is also positive and the short-term forecasts are particularly improved over the west coast of North America. Finally, the dynamical consistency of the 4DVAR global analyses leads to a significant impact on regional forecasts. Experimentation has shown that regional forecasts initiated directly from a 4DVAR global analysis are improved with respect to the regional forecasts resulting from the regional 3DVAR analysis.
Mesoscale Convective Vortices Observed during BAMEX. Part I: Kinematic and Thermodynamic Structure
Authors: Davis Christopher A. , Trier Stanley B. 
Published: June 2007

Abstract
Five cases of mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs) are described from observations collected during the Bow Echo and MCV Experiment (BAMEX) over the central United States during the period from 20 May to 6 July 2003. In the present paper, the kinematic and thermodynamic structure of each vortex and its environment are emphasized. Data consist of BAMEX dropsondes, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration profiler network, and National Weather Service soundings. In addition, Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler observations documented the signatures of nascent MCVs within nocturnal convection systems as well as the spatial pattern of convection within MCVs during the following day. The vertical structure of each vortex was highly dependent on the vertical shear and the presence of upper-tropospheric cyclonic vorticity anomalies. In strong shear, a pronounced downshear tilt of the vortex was evident, but with the presence of an upper-tropospheric trough, the tilt was upshear in the upper troposphere. In only one case did the tangential velocity of the vortex greatly exceed the vertical shear across its depth, and thus the vortex could maintain itself against the shear. The vortices were generally deep structures, extending through 5–8 km in all cases and maximizing their tangential winds between 550 and 600 hPa. In one of the five cases, vertical penetration into the boundary layer was unambiguous. Lower-tropospheric virtual potential temperature anomalies were generally 1–2 K, greatest when not directly beneath the midtropospheric MCV center but rather on its upshear and downshear flanks. Upper-tropospheric warm anomalies were found above and downshear from the midtropospheric MCV center, with a cool anomaly upshear, the latter being stronger in cases with an upshear tropopause-based trough. A diagnostic balance calculation was performed and indicated that the temperature anomalies were approximately balanced on the scale of the vortex.
A Stereo Photogrammetric Technique Applied to Orographic Convection
Authors: Zehnder Joseph A. , Hu Jiuxiang , Razdan Anshuman 
Published: June 2007

Abstract
This paper describes a technique for photogrammetric analysis of stereo pairs of images that is applied to the study of orographic convection. The technique is designed for use with digital images and assumes detailed knowledge of the camera properties (focal length and imaging chip) and that the position and orientation are known as a first guess. An iterative scheme using known landmarks on the frame is used to determine the camera orientation. The scheme is accurate to 10–100 m at a distance of 15 km from the camera pair. The transition from shallow to deep convection over the Santa Catalina Mountains in southern Arizona on 26 July 2005 is presented. The three-dimensional structure of the visible portion of the cloud is determined and compared with the composite reflectivity from the National Weather Service Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler radar and the tropopause height from the 1200 UTC sounding in Tucson, Arizona, providing additional validation of the scheme. The shallow to deep transition is characterized by tracking individual turrets and determining the maximum height of the cloud top. The cloud tops were limited to beneath 6000 m MSL for the first 1.5 h followed by the development of deep convection. The motion of the turrets and location of the eventual deep convection were consistent with the idea that moistening by shallow convection conditions the atmosphere for further development.
Comparison of Ensemble-MOS Methods Using GFS Reforecasts
Authors: Wilks Daniel S. , Hamill Thomas M. 
Published: June 2007

Abstract
Three recently proposed and promising methods for postprocessing ensemble forecasts based on their historical error characteristics (i.e., ensemble-model output statistics methods) are compared using a multidecadal reforecast dataset. Logistic regressions and nonhomogeneous Gaussian regressions are generally preferred for daily temperature, and for medium-range (6–10 and 8–14 day) temperature and precipitation forecasts. However, the better sharpness of medium-range ensemble-dressing forecasts sometimes yields the best Brier scores even though their calibration is somewhat worse. Using the long (15 or 25 yr) training samples that are available with these reforecasts improves the accuracy and skill of these probabilistic forecasts to levels that are approximately equivalent to gains of 1 day of lead time, relative to using short (1 or 2 yr) training samples.