bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Layering in a Flow with Diffusively Stable Temperature and Salinity Stratification
Authors: Martin Juan Ezequiel , Rehmann Chris R. 
Published: August 2006

Abstract
Laboratory experiments were conducted to study the formation of layers and interfaces in a fluid stratified with two scalars. Fluid with initially linear, diffusively stable temperature and salinity profiles was stirred using an arrangement of horizontally oscillating, vertical rods. Layers occurred when the density ratio, or the ratio of the contributions of temperature and salinity to the density gradient, was small, but they did not form in similar conditions of turbulence intensity and stratification strength when the density ratio was large. The difference in behavior is ascribed to differential diffusion, or the preferential transport of temperature, which occurred in all of the experiments. Eddy diffusivities were linearly proportional to ɛa/νN 2, where ɛa is an averaged rate of dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy. The mixing efficiency, computed as the ratio of potential energy change to work input to the system, increased with the density ratio. As previous researchers have found, the Phillips–Posmentier mechanism describes the final layered state but not the initial, evolving states of the system.
On Kurtosis and Occurrence Probability of Freak Waves
Authors: Mori Nobuhito , Janssen Peter A. E. M. 
Published: August 2006

AbstractBased on a weakly non-Gaussian theory, the occurrence probability of freak waves is formulated in terms of the number of waves in a time series and the surface elevation kurtosis. Finite kurtosis gives rise to a significant enhancement of freak wave generation in comparison with the linear narrowbanded wave theory. For a fixed number of waves, the estimated amplification ratio of freak wave occurrence due to the deviation from the Gaussian theory is 50%–300%. The results of the theory are compared with laboratory and field data.
Intraseasonal Variability of Summer Storms over Central Arizona during 1997 and 1999
Authors: Heinselman Pamela L. , Schultz David M. 
Published: August 2006

Abstract
Although previous climatologies over central Arizona show a summer diurnal precipitation cycle, on any given day precipitation may differ dramatically from this climatology. The purpose of this study is to investigate the intraseasonal variability of diurnal storm development over Arizona and explore the relationship to the synoptic-scale flow and Phoenix soundings during the 1997 and 1999 North American monsoons. Radar reflectivity mosaics constructed from Phoenix and Flagstaff Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler reflectivity data reveal six repeated storm development patterns or regimes. The diurnal evolution of each regime is illustrated by computing frequency maps of 25 dBZ and greater reflectivity during 3-h periods. These regimes are named to reflect their regional and temporal characteristics: dry regime, eastern mountain regime, central-eastern mountain regime, central-eastern mountain and Sonoran-isolated regime, central-eastern mountain and Sonoran regime, and nondiurnal regime. Composites constructed from the NCEP–NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project data show that regime occurrence is related to the north–south location of the 500-hPa geopotential height ridge axis of the Bermuda high and the east–west location of the 500-hPa monsoon boundary, a boundary between dry air to the west and moist air to the east. Consequently, precipitable water from the 1200 UTC Phoenix soundings is the best parameter for discriminating the six regimes.
Developing Tools for Nowcasting Storm Severity
Authors: Roberts Rita D. , Burgess Donald , Meister Matthew 
Published: August 2006

Abstract
A conceptual model is presented for developing a new tool for nowcasting severe thunderstorms using existing operational data. Selected output from two operational, automated, weather detection and forecasting systems have been combined together within a fuzzy logic–based, data fusion system to test the concept and produce 15-min nowcasts of severe weather. The NCAR Auto-Nowcast System provides information and nowcasts on the evolving boundary layer and storm initiation, growth, and decay. The National Severe Storms Laboratory Warning Decision Support System (WDSS) identifies severe weather attributes within storms and provides storm-centric and specific detections of strong winds, mesocyclones, tornadoes, and probabilities of hail and severe hail. A modified version of the Auto-Nowcast System is employed as the engine for combining the Auto-Nowcast gridded output with the object-based WDSS output. Severe thunderstorm nowcasts are compared with available spotter reports for a multicellular, hail-producing squall-line event and a tornadic supercell event. Proof of concept is demonstrated and the results are encouraging as some skill is observed with the 15-min nowcasts. Many challenges still exist in producing a robust tool and these challenges are discussed.
Severe Convective Wind Environments
Authors: Kuchera Evan L. , Parker Matthew D. 
Published: August 2006

Abstract
Nontornadic thunderstorm winds from long-lived, widespread convective windstorms can have a tremendous impact on human lives and property. To examine environments that support damaging wind producing convection, sounding parameters from Rapid Update Cycle model analyses (at 3-hourly intervals) from 2003 were compared with 7055 reports of damaging winds and 377 081 occurrences of lightning. Ground-relative wind velocity was the most effective at discriminating between damaging and nondamaging wind convective environments. Steep surface-based lapse rates (a traditional damaging wind parameter) generally did not discriminate between damaging and nondamaging wind convective environments. Other parameters, such as convective available potential energy, humidity aloft, and lapse rates aloft were moderately discriminating. This paper presents a composite damaging wind algorithm in which the two most discriminatory parameters were combined, yielding more skill than any individual parameter. Damaging wind environments are then examined further through a selection of cases that highlight common severe wind ingredients and failure modes. A primary result is that, even in seemingly favorable environments, when the winds at the top of the inflow layer were either parallel to the convective line or blowing from warm to cold over a front, damaging winds were less likely. In the former case, it appears that the downdraft winds and the cold pool’s gust-front-normal flow are not additive. In the latter case, it appears that convection becomes elevated and does not produce downdrafts that reach the surface. Combining the most discriminatory severe wind parameters with knowledge of these severe wind failure modes may help to improve the situational awareness of forecasters.
Research Aircraft and Wind Profiler Observations in Gastineau Channel during a Taku Wind Event*
Authors: Bond Nicholas A. , Dierking Carl F. , Doyle James D. 
Published: August 2006

Abstract
The flow in Gastineau Channel near Juneau, Alaska, during the moderate Taku wind event of 18 October 2004 is examined using observations from the University of Wyoming’s King Air research aircraft, two wind profilers, and surface weather stations. These data sources reveal low-level winds directed down the central portion of Gastineau Channel, that is, gap flow. Farther down the channel, and above this gap flow, the winds were strongly cross channel in association with the downslope flow that characterizes Taku events. The transition region between these two flows included strong vertical wind shear and severe turbulence; measurements from the King Air indicate turbulent kinetic energy locally exceeding 50 m2 s−2. A high-resolution simulation of this case using the Naval Research Laboratory’s Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System reproduced the observed character of the mean flow. This case illustrates the hazard to aviation posed by even a moderate Taku wind event and shows the value of a wind profiler for monitoring the vertical wind shear responsible for the hazard.
Sensitivity of Several Performance Measures to Displacement Error, Bias, and Event Frequency
Authors: Baldwin Michael E. , Kain John S. 
Published: August 2006

Abstract
The sensitivity of various accuracy measures to displacement error, bias, and event frequency is analyzed for a simple hypothetical forecasting situation. Each measure is found to be sensitive to displacement error and bias, but probability of detection and threat score do not change as a function of event frequency. On the other hand, equitable threat score, true skill statistic, and odds ratio skill score behaved differently with changing event frequency. A newly devised measure, here called the bias-adjusted threat score, does not change with varying event frequency and is relatively insensitive to bias. Numerous plots are presented to allow users of these accuracy measures to make quantitative estimates of sensitivities that are relevant to their particular application.
Operational Impact of QuikSCAT Winds at the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center
Authors: Von Ahn Joan M. , Sienkiewicz Joseph M. , Chang Paul S. 
Published: August 2006

AbstractThe NASA Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) has revolutionized the analysis and short-term forecasting of winds over the oceans at the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center (OPC). The success of QuikSCAT in OPC operations is due to the wide 1800-km swath width, large retrievable wind speed range (0 to in excess of 30 m s−1), ability to view QuikSCAT winds in a comprehensive form in operational workstations, and reliable near-real-time delivery of data. Prior to QuikSCAT, marine forecasters at the OPC made warning and forecast decisions over vast ocean areas based on a limited number of conventional observations or on the satellite presentation of a storm system. Today, QuikSCAT winds are a heavily used tool by OPC forecasters. Approximately 10% of all short-term wind warning decisions by the OPC are based on QuikSCAT winds. When QuikSCAT is available, 50%–68% of all weather features on OPC surface analyses are placed using QuikSCAT. QuikSCAT is the first remote sensing instrument that can consistently distinguish extreme hurricane force conditions from less dangerous storm force conditions in extratropical cyclones. During each winter season (October–April) from 2001 to 2004, 15–23 extratropical cyclones reached hurricane force intensity over both the North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans. Due to QuikSCAT, OPC forecasters are now more likely to anticipate the onset of hurricane force conditions. QuikSCAT has also revealed significant wind speed gradients in the vicinity of strong sea surface temperature (SST) differences near the Gulf Stream and shelfbreak front of the western North Atlantic. These wind speed gradients are most likely due to changes in low-level stability of the boundary layer across the SST gradients. OPC forecasters now use a variety of numerical guidance based tools to help predict boundary layer stability and the resultant near-surface winds.
NASA MODIS Previews NPOESS VIIRS Capabilities
Authors: Lee Thomas F. , Miller Steven D. , Schueler Carl , Miller Shawn 
Published: August 2006

Abstract
The Visible/Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), scheduled to fly on the satellites of the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System, will combine the missions of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), which flies on current National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellites, and the Operational Linescan System aboard the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program satellites. VIIRS will offer a number of improvements to weather forecasters. First, because of a sophisticated downlink and relay system, VIIRS latencies will be 30 min or less around the globe, improving the timeliness and therefore the operational usefulness of the images. Second, with 22 channels, VIIRS will offer many more products than its predecessors. As an example, a true-color simulation is shown using data from the Earth Observing System’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), an application current geostationary imagers cannot produce because of a missing “green” wavelength channel. Third, VIIRS images will have improved quality. Through a unique pixel aggregation strategy, VIIRS pixels will not expand rapidly toward the edge of a scan like those of MODIS or AVHRR. Data will retain nearly the same resolution at the edge of the swath as at nadir. Graphs and image simulations depict the improvement in output image quality. Last, the NexSat Web site, which provides near-real-time simulations of VIIRS products, is introduced.
Using Radar Wind Observations to Improve Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction
Authors: Zhao Qingyun , Cook John , Xu Qin , Harasti Paul R. 
Published: August 2006

Abstract
A high-resolution radar data assimilation system is presented for high-resolution numerical weather prediction models. The system is under development at the Naval Research Laboratory for the Navy’s Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System. A variational approach is used to retrieve three-dimensional dynamical fields of atmospheric conditions from multiple-Doppler radar observations of radial velocity within a limited area. The methodology is described along with a preliminary evaluation of the impact of assimilated radar data on model forecasts using a case study of a squall line that occurred along the east coast of the United States on 9 May 2003. Results from the experiments show a significant impact from the assimilated radar radial velocity data on the model forecast of not just dynamical but also hydrological fields at all model levels for the duration of the storm. A verification system has also been developed to assess the radar data assimilation impact, and the results show improvements in the three-dimensional wind forecasts but relatively small changes in the prediction of storm locations. This study highlights the need to develop a continuous radar data assimilation system to maximize the impact of the data.
Operational Performance of a New Barotropic Model (WBAR) in the Western North Pacific Basin
Authors: Sampson Charles R. , Goerss James S. , Weber Harry C. 
Published: August 2006

Abstract
The Weber barotropic model (WBAR) was originally developed using predefined 850–200-hPa analyses and forecasts from the NCEP Global Forecasting System. The WBAR tropical cyclone (TC) track forecast performance was found to be competitive with that of more complex numerical weather prediction models in the North Atlantic. As a result, WBAR was revised to incorporate the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) analyses and forecasts for use at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). The model was also modified to analyze its own storm-dependent deep-layer mean fields from standard NOGAPS pressure levels. Since its operational installation at the JTWC in May 2003, WBAR TC track forecast performance has been competitive with the performance of other more complex NWP models in the western North Pacific. Its TC track forecast performance combined with its high availability rate (93%–95%) has warranted its inclusion in the JTWC operational consensus. The impact of WBAR on consensus TC track forecast performance has been positive and WBAR has added to the consensus forecast availability (i.e., having at least two models to provide a consensus forecast).
Passive-Microwave-Enhanced Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme
Authors: Jones Thomas A. , Cecil Daniel , DeMaria Mark 
Published: August 2006

Abstract
The formulation and testing of an enhanced Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) using new predictors derived from passive microwave imagery is presented. Passive microwave imagery is acquired for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins between 1995 and 2003. Predictors relating to the inner-core (within 100 km of center) precipitation and convective characteristics of tropical cyclones are derived. These predictors are combined with the climatological and environmental predictors used by SHIPS in a simple linear regression model with change in tropical cyclone intensity as the predictand. Separate linear regression models are produced for forecast intervals of 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, and 72 h from the time of a microwave sensor overpass. Analysis of the resulting models indicates that microwave predictors, which provide an intensification signal to the model when above-average precipitation and convective signatures are present, have comparable importance to vertical wind shear and SST-related predictors. The addition of the microwave predictors produces a 2%–8% improvement in performance for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity forecasts out to 72 h when compared with an environmental-only model trained from the same sample. Improvement is also observed when compared against the current version of SHIPS. The improvement in both basins is greatest for substantially intensifying or weakening tropical cyclones. Improvement statistics are based on calculating the forecast error for each tropical cyclone while it is held out of the training sample to approximate the use of independent data.
The 19 April 1996 Illinois Tornado Outbreak. Part II: Cell Mergers and Associated Tornado Incidence
Authors: Lee Bruce D. , Jewett Brian F. , Wilhelmson Robert B. 
Published: August 2006

Abstract
In the 19 April 1996 Illinois tornado outbreak, cell mergers played a very important role in the convective evolution. With a large number of cells forming within a short time period, the early stages of cell organization were marked by cell merger interactions and cell attrition that led to a pattern of isolated tornadic supercells as described in Part I of this study. Twenty-six mergers were documented and analyzed. Storm-rotation-induced differential cell propagation accounted for 58% of these 26 cell mergers while differing cell speeds prompted 27% of the mergers. Cell merger characterizations were utilized to describe the cell reflectivity coalescence morphology including aspects of new cell development, development along the periphery of an existing cell, or an upward pulse in the cell intensity of a dominant cell. In cases where the merging cells were of similar intensity, a rapidly developing cellular pulse “bridging” the two echoes was often observed. When the relationship between short-term cell intensity changes and cell mergers was examined, it was found that the maximum reflectivity tendency showed a bias toward higher reflectivity for the product storm. Depending upon the radar elevation angle utilized, 27%–44% of mergers were associated with an increase in peak reflectivity while 40%–58% of the storms realized little or no increase. With respect to short-term cell rotation changes, the merger signal was marked. Depending upon the length of the evaluation window, in 44%–60% of the mergers, there was evidence of a merger-associated increase in cell rotation. When considering the association between tornado occurrence and cell mergers, a striking 54% of the tornadoes occurred within 15 min before or after a cell merger. This high percentage is strongly suggestive of a physical relationship between storm mergers and tornadogenesis. A discussion is presented of potential merger scenarios and favorable ambient environmental conditions that may have been conducive to tornadogenesis in this event. Suggestions are presented to raise the awareness level of forecasters to key aspects of cell evolution and interaction in nowcasting severe convection.
The 19 April 1996 Illinois Tornado Outbreak. Part I: Cell Evolution and Supercell Isolation
Authors: Lee Bruce D. , Jewett Brian F. , Wilhelmson Robert B. 
Published: August 2006

Abstract
In this study of the 19 April 1996 Illinois tornado outbreak, 109 cells were tracked using radar data to understand the transition of the cell configuration from a considerable number of initial cells to a small subset of supercells after several hours of evolution. Of these 109 cells, 85 developed along three synoptic boundaries (dryline, warm front, and dryline–warm front occlusion) between 1940 and 2230 UTC. A large majority of these 85 cells formed in a 1-h period between 2040 and 2140 UTC. With a considerable number of cells initiating within a short time period, the early stages of cell organization were marked by cell merger interactions and cell attrition that led to a pattern of isolated tornadic supercells. Cell-type initiation analysis revealed that storms that would become supercells were initiated, on average, 17 min before nonsupercell storms. Cyclonic supercells, with mean storm life spans of 214 min, had much longer lives than nonsupercell storms. Anticyclonic supercells resulting from storm splits were the second longest lived at 166 min. In comparison, the largest nonsupercell category, those cells that dissipated in relative isolation, only had 35-min life spans. Supercell isolation resulted from storm mergers due to differential cell propagation and the frequent attrition of cells that formed along a common boundary. The varying rotational properties of individual cells enhanced the probability for numerous mergers while fostering a scenario where, after a few hours, the supercells became increasingly isolated. Suggestions are presented to raise the awareness level of forecasters to key aspects of cell evolution and interaction in nowcasting severe convection. In Part II of this study, storm interactions are examined in the context of merger morphology, merged cell intensity changes, and the association between storm mergers and tornadogenesis.
Altered Neuromuscular Control and Ankle Joint Kinematics during Walking in Subjects with Functional Instability of the Ankle Joint
Authors: Delahunt Eamonn , Monaghan Kenneth , Caulfield Brian 
Published: August 2006

Background The ankle joint requires very precise neuromuscular control during the transition from terminal swing to the early stance phase of the gait cycle. Altered ankle joint arthrokinematics and muscular activity have been cited as potential factors that may lead to an inversion sprain during the aforementioned time periods. However, to date, no study has investigated patterns of muscle activity and 3D joint kinematics simultaneously in a group of subjects with functional instability compared with a noninjured control group during these phases of the gait cycle. Purpose To compare the patterns of lower limb 3D joint kinematics and electromyographic activity during treadmill walking in a group of subjects with functional instability with those observed in a control group. Study Design Controlled laboratory study. Methods Three-dimensional angular velocities and displacements of the hip, knee, and ankle joints, as well as surface electromyography of the rectus femoris, peroneus longus, tibialis anterior, and soleus muscles, were recorded simultaneously while subjects walked on a treadmill at a velocity of 4 km/h. Results Before heel strike, subjects with functional instability exhibited a decrease in vertical foot-floor clearance (12.62 vs 22.84 mm; P <. 05), as well as exhibiting a more inverted position of the ankle joint before, at, and immediately after heel strike (1.69°, 2.10°, and -0.09° vs -1.43°, -1.43°, and -2.78°, respectively [minus value = eversion]; P <. 05) compared with controls. Subjects with functional instability were also observed to have an increase in peroneus longus integral electromyography during the post–heel strike time period (107.91%[.dotmath]millisecond vs 64.53%[.dotmath]millisecond; P <. 01). Conclusion The altered kinematics observed in this study could explain the reason subjects with functional instability experience repeated episodes of ankle inversion injury in situations with only slight or no external provocation. It is hypothesized that the observed increase in peroneus longus activity may be the result of a change in preprogrammed feed-forward motor control.