bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Women’s Sex Preferences in the United States: 1970 to 1975
Authors: Pebley Anne R. , Westoff Charles F. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This analysis examines the potential effect of sex preselection technology in the United States. The results suggest that controlling the sex of offspring is not the desire of most American women; that if it were employed, there would be a significant increase in sons as first-born and daughters as second children; that the overall sex ratio would be little changed from that occurring naturally except at very low fertility levels with universal use of such technology; and that fertility is only minimally influenced by gender preferences.
What will 1984 be like? Socioeconomic implications of recent twists in age structure
Authors: Easterlin Richard A. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Since 1940, under conditions of restricted immigration and high and sustained growth in aggregate demand, shifts in the relative number of younger versus older adults have had a pervasive impact on American life. Before 1960, younger males were in increasingly short supply and their relative economic position substantially improved; after 1960, the opposite was true. Since the early sixties, as the relative condition of young adults has deteriorated, marriage has been increasingly deferred and fertility reduced. The labor force participation of young women has risen at above average rates, and that of older women has risen at below average rates. Changes in the age structure of the working age population have also contributed to a combination of rising unemployment and accelerating inflation. Cohort divorce rates, suicide among young males, crime rates, and political alienation have worsened. The rise in college enrollment rates has been interrupted, and SAT scores have declined. In contrast, in the period 1940–1960, changes in these various magnitudes were typically of a more favorable sort. The United States is now at the start of a new period of growing scarcity of young adults as a result of the birth rate decline that set in after 1960. This implies that the 1980s will see a turnaround or amelioration in a wide variety of these social, political, and economic conditions, some of which have been taken as symptomatic of a hardening social malaise.
The relationship between apartment living and fertility for blacks, Mexican-Americans, and other Americans in Racine, Wisconsin
Authors: Curry James P. , Scriven Gayle D. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Recently published data from a sample of Bogotá, Colombia public housing residents show that apartment dwellers, but not house dwellers, reduced their fertility in a tight housing market. We propose that the utilitycost theory of fertility accounts for this finding, and, using this theory, we predict that (a) apartment residents will not decrease their fertility in an open housing market and (b) higher fertility will be associated with larger dwellings. Longitudinal data from a sample of Midwest urban blacks, Mexican Americans, and other Americans support both predictions. The substantive implications are discussed.
Age, biological factors, and socioeconomic determinants of fertility: A new measure of cumulative fertility for use in the empirical analysis of family size
Authors: Boulier Bryan , Rosenzweig Mark R. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
To influence the number of children ever born to a woman, socioeconomic variables must operate through behavioral and biological mechanisms such as the age at marriage, the level of fertility in the absence of deliberate fertility control, and the level of control exerted to reduce fertility within marriage. In this paper, we propose a new measure of cumulative fertility which is standardized for the age-fecundity relationship and for exposure to the risk of conception associated with duration of marriage. A simple model of fertility behavior which incorporates some of the mechanisms through which socioeconomic factors may affect fertility is developed and applied to data from the United States to demonstrate the properties of alternative measures of family size. The results indicate that use of the new measure allows more precise estimates of socioeconomic fertility relationships than would be obtained with children ever born or by sample stratification.
Calculating life tables by estimating Chiang’s a from observed rates
Authors: Schoen Robert 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
A simple, accurate method of life table construction is advanced based upon a new way to estimate Chiang’s nax (the average number of years lived in the x to x + n age interval by those dying in the interval). The estimate for nax leads immediately to an expression for lx+n (the survivors to age x + n) in terms of lx and the known mortality rates for the interval x to x+n and the two adjacent intervals. The complete solution for the basic life table is given. The proposed method and five other easily applied methods are then compared against the standard provided by the U.S. life tables for 1969–1971. The results attest to the excellent performance and high degree of accuracy of the proposed method. Finally, extensions of the method to multiple decrement and associated single decrement life tables are briefly described.
Some roots of preference: Roles, activities and familial values
Authors: Coombs Lolagene C. , Freedman Ronald 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper examines some of the connecting links between modernization in a developing society, particularly urbanization and increased education for women, and preferences for number of children. Using 1973 Taiwan data, preferences for smaller families are found to be consistently related to modern attitudes and behavior in the three domains examined: intrafamilial husband-wife role relationships, extrafamilial activities of the wife, and familial and religious values relating the family to the larger institutional setting. Modernization of these attitudes, behaviors, and values has an impact on reproductive goals independent of their association with structural variables. The wife’s outside activities and exposure to modern influences through the mass media are especially important linkages, having a particularly strong mediating effect in the education effect on preferences. Intrafamilial relations appear to be of less importance. Modernization of familial and religious values mediates between urbanization and family size preferences. The measure of preference used is a scale value which has been found in other research to be more predictive of reproductive behavior than the conventional single-valued statement of number of children wanted. As the level of contraceptive use rises in developing societies, family size preferences increasingly become a factor in birth rates, and understanding the sources of change in these preferences takes on added importance. The policy implications of these findings are discussed.
Determining the impact of sex preferences on fertility: A consideration of parity progression ratio, dominance, and stopping rule measures
Authors: McClelland Gary H. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The two methods commonly used to assess the effect of sex preferences on fertility are inadequate to the task. Parity progression ratio analyses suffer from logical problems stemming from the heterogeneity of sex preferences and the riskiness of fertility decisions. While conjoint measurement-dominance procedures overcome these logical problems, they cannot yield quantitative estimates of the impact of sex preferences on fertility. A stopping rule measure which overcomes these limitations is proposed and described and its potential for determining the effect of sex predetermination methods on population is discussed.
The earnings of men and remarriage
Authors: Wolf Wendy C. , MacDonald Maurice M. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Focusing on the effects of men’s earnings, this paper analyzes remarriage. Previous empirical research has not established what theoretical aspects of men’s earnings are important. Here, data for Wisconsin high school graduates that include male respondents’ Social Security earnings history are analyzed. The results indicate that absolute earnings, earnings instability, and earnings relative to peers have minimal effects on a man’s probability of remarriage, but that permanent income positively affects remarriage. However, studies of marital disruption often find permanent income is not as important as relative earnings measures. Concluding remarks speculate about the meaning of these contrasting findings for the economics of marriage.
Interrelationships between fertility and marital dissolution: Results of a simultaneous logit model
Authors: Koo Helen P. , Janowitz Barbara K. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Previous studies have failed to examine (a) the simultaneity of decisions to bear children and to dissolve a marriage and (b) the effects of the childbearing in the period just before dissolution on the likelihood of disruption. We attempted to resolve both problems by developing a simultaneous logit model of the interrelationship between the probability of separation and of having a birth during this period (when dissolution presumably is being considered). The model was estimated at successive durations of first marriage, using data for white women in the 1970 National Fertility Survey. The results indicate that childbearing patterns—number of children and age of youngest child at the beginning of the marital interval being studied and fertility during the interval—did not influence the likelihood of separation in simple or consistent ways over the marital life course, nor did marital strife (as indicated by separation) seem to affect childbearing throughout marriage.
Industrial shifts, female employment, and occupational differentiation: a dynamic model for American cities, 1960–1970
Authors: Semyonov Moshe , Scott Richard Ira 
Published: March 2007

AbstractSex-linked occupational differentiation has been seen as influenced by both the industrial structure of the economy and the sex composition of the labor force. Here, with a sample of 70 SMSAs, it was found (a) that the odds of men relative to women of joining professional and managerial occupations increased between 1960 and 1970, and (b) that this increase was dependent on the growth of tertiary industries and the greater number of women joining the cash economy. The observed effect of industrial shifts on sex-occupational differentiation, however, is argued to be a spurious consequence of the gender-composition of the work force. Specifically, the development of tertiary industries generates greater demand for female labor. Intensive recruitment of women to the labor force in turn increases occupational differentiation because females, in sex-typed labor markets, are likely to be channeled in disproportionate numbers away from upper-status occupations. The findings demonstrate that traditional modernization theory is unable to account for this. However, the results lend support to expectations derived from a labor market sex-segmentation approach.
Weather, nutrition, and the economy: Short-run fluctuations in births, deaths, and marriages, France 1740–1909
Authors: Richards Toni 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper analyzes short-run fluctuations in national time series of vital events for France in the period 1740 to 1909. Fertility, mortality, and nuptiality form a simultaneous system which interacts with economic and meteorological conditions. In the short run, the demographic variables are endogenous. Economic and meteorological conditions are exogenous. Our indicator of economic conditions is the price of wheat, the principal food crop. Biometric models of fertility and empirical research on the biologically-based interrelations of fertility and mortality provide insight into the expected timing of events. We combine these results with empirical research on the effects of nutrition on fertility and mortality, research in medical biometeorology, and French historical demograhic and economic research to formulate our model. The resultant distributed lag system is estimated. We find that the economic/nutritional effects are more likely to be statistically significant in predicting the time path of vital events than are the demographic variables or the effects of meteorological conditions.
Population estimates from longitudinal records in otherwise data-deficient settings
Authors: Anderton Douglas L. , Conaty Joseph , Pullum Thomas W. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Existing methods for estimating population parameters in settings of data deficiency do not provide techniques for analysis of commonly available longitudinal data. In settings where complete population data is unavailable, longitudinal data recorded for only a subset of the total population are often available (e.g., event registers, genealogies). In this article we present and evaluate models which derive population parameters for the population subgroup underlying such longitudinal data. Using the distribution of individual times until first recorded event within a measurement interval, population parameters are estimated which provide basic denominator data for analyzing event occurrence. The models which we derive are especially suited to records which may include migration and population growth trends. The use of the models is demonstrated and evaluated through an application to genealogical records for a nineteenth-century population. Possible extensions of these models and their major limitations are also discussed.
Preference for Sons, Family Size, and Sex Ratio: An Empirical Study in Korea
Authors: Park Chai Bin 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This study investigates the effects of son preference on sex ratio and fertility at the family level, utilizing World Fertility Survey data for Korea, whose population is known to have a strong preference for sons and a fairly high level of contraceptive use. The sex ratio (number of males per 100 females) of siblings in small families is considerably higher than in large families. The sex ratio of last-born children in families of any size is markedly higher than that of the previous children. The sex distribution of children for a given family size, if less than five, deviates significantly from the Bernoulli sequence. The observed frequency of all-girl families is especially small in comparison with the expected value. The sex of the last child strongly influences couples’ decision making regarding additional births in all steps of family building except for bearing a second child. In increasing their families to moderate size, parents appear to take into consideration the sex distribution of all earlier births.
Assesssing Cohort Birth Expectations Data from the Current Population Survey, 1971–1981
Authors: O’Connell Martin , Rogers Carolyn C. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Data from the fertility supplements to the Current Population Survey from 1971 to 1981 indicate that in the aggregate, the lifetime birth expectations of married women 18 to 39 years old in 1971 will closely approximate their completed cohort fertility. During this period, the youngest group of women, 18 to 24 years old, delayed their childbearing; their short-term expectations (1971–76) were not realized, but they made up enough births in the latter half of the decade to enable them to attain their lifetime birth expectations. In retrospect, the “failure” of birth expectations data to predict the “period” fertility downswing in the 1970s resulted not from poor predictions of married women, but rather from unanticipated marital and subsequent childbearing patterns of women who were single at the beginning of the decade. The authors conclude that birth expectations are useful predictors of completed cohort fertility, if adjustments are made to incorporate changes in the proportions married within the birth cohort.
A Note on Maritally-Disrupted Men’s Reports of Child Support in the June 1980 Current Population Survey
Authors: Cherlin Andrew , Griffith Jeanne , McCarthy James 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Data from the June 1980 Current Population Survey on fathers’ reported provision offinancial support to children from previous marriages living elsewhere is compared to previously published tabulations from the April 1979 CPS of women’s receipt of child support payments. The comparison indicates that the number of men with children from previous marriages living elsewhere is substantially underreported in the June 1980 CPS. Because of the apparent underreporting, the data on the provision of financial support should be interpreted with caution.
Mother or Market? Effects of Maternal Employment on the Intellectual Ability of 4-Year-Old Children
Authors: Desai Sonalde , Chase-Lansdale P. Lindsay , Michael Robert T. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This article uses the 1986 Children of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth data set to investigate the impact of maternal employment on children's intellectual ability, as measured at the age of 4 by using the Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test (PPVT). Results from multivariate regression analysis show a statistically significant adverse effect of mother's employment on children's intellectual ability, but only for boys in higher income families. Furthermore, the negative impact was related to the timing of maternal employment: employment during the boys' infancy had a statistically significant negative effect on PPVT scores at the age of 4. This pattern was not found for girls, for children in low-income families, or for families in which mothers resumed their employment after the child's first year of life. The impact of other demographic trends in recent years—declining fertility and rising marital instability—are also investigated. The results show an adverse effect of the presence of other siblings on children's PPVT scores; but holding family income constant, the effect of the parents' marital status on children's intellectual ability is not statistically significant. In addition, several family background factors are highly correlated with children's test scores.
The Antecedents of Teenage Fatherhood
Authors: Hanson Sandra L. , Morrison Donna Ruane , Ginsburg Alan L. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The High School and Beyond Survey was used to describe young men who are at risk of becoming teenage fathers and examine the causal process leading to early fathering for young men. Bivariate results show that men who are at risk of fathering children at a young age have unique attitudes and family, school, and dating experiences. Multivariate analyses suggest that the most cogent factors affecting teenage fathering include being black, going steady, and having unorthodox views about parenting outside of marriage.
Forecasting Mortality: A Parameterized Time Series Approach
Authors: McNown Robert , Rogers Andrei 
Published: March 2007

AbstractThis article links parameterized model mortality schedules with time series methods to develop forecasts of U.S. mortality to the year 2000. The use of model mortality schedules permits a relatively concise representation of the history of mortality by age and sex from 1900 to 1985, and the use of modern time series methods to extend this history forward to the end of this century allows for a flexible modeling of trend and the accommodation of changes in long-run mortality patterns. This pilot study demonstrates that the proposed procedure produces medium-range forecasts of mortality that meet the standard tests of accuracy in forecast evaluation and that are sensible when evaluated against the comparable forecasts produced by the Social Security Administration.
Demographic Conditions Responsible for Population Aging
Authors: Preston Samuel H. , Himes Christine , Eggers Mitchell 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This article develops and applies two expressions for the rate of change of a population's mean age. In one, aging is shown to be negatively related to contemporary birth rates and death rates. In a general sense, aging occurs when vital rates are too low, as illustrated through applications to the United States, the Netherlands, and Japan. The other expression relates the rate of aging to a population's demographic history, in particular to changes in mortality, migration, and the annual number of births. Applications to the United States and Sweden show that the dominant factor in current aging in these countries is a history of declining mortality. Migration also contributes significantly but in opposite directions in the two countries. The two approaches are integrated after recognizing that the rate of change in the mean age is equal to the covariance between age and age-specific growth rates. A decomposition of this co-variance shows that the two seemingly unrelated expressions contain exactly the same information about the age pattern of growth rates.
Child care for preschoolers: Differences by child’s age
Authors: Leibowitz Arleen , Waite Linda J. , Witsberger Christina 
Published: March 2007

AbstractBecause of the high rates of employment of mothers, a large and increasing number of preschool children receive regular care from someone else. This article develops and tests hypotheses about the choice of child care arrangements for younger and older preschool children, using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Young Women. We argue that appropriate care depends on the age of the child. It includes care by the mother or a paid provider in the child’s home for children aged 0–2 and mother care and nursery school or center care for those 3–5. We estimate models of the mother’s employment and choice of child care separately for younger and older preschoolers. Our results show that need for care, presence of substitutes for the mother, financial resources, and preferences all affect both full-time care by the mother and the type of child care chosen by working women, although they affect these two decisions in different ways.
Educational attainment of children from single-parent families: Differences by exposure, gender, and race
Authors: Krein Sheila Fitzgerald , Beller Andrea H. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This article examines the effect of living in a single-parent family on educational attainment by gender and race. According to household production theory, the reduction in parental resources for human capital investment in children living in a single-parent family should lower their educational attainment. Using matched mother-daughter and mother-son samples from the National Longitudinal Surveys, we constructed precise measures of the age and length of time a child lived in a single-parent family. Empirical findings show that the negative effect of living in a single-parent family (I) increases with the number of years spent in this type of family, (2) is greatest during the preschool years, and (3) is larger for boys than girls.
Thinking about change in illegitimacy ratios: United States, 1963–1983
Authors: Smith Herbert L. , Cutright Phillips 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
What has been the recent trend in illegitimacy in the United States? The answer depends on what is being measured. If the focus is on illegitimacy rates, then the trend is mixed. Illegitimacy ratios, however, have been skyrocketing. We show that this is primarily the result of declining nuptiaIity (and rising marital dissolution) and secondarily the result of decreases in marital fertility. We argue that the illegitimacy ratio is the better index of the social consequences of out-of-wedlock childbearing and that the high ratios of recent decades are unlikely to abate in the foreseeable future.