bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
The effects of temperature on human fertility
Authors: Lam David A. , Miron Jeffrey A. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Monthly birth and temperature data for a variety of states and countries are used to estimate the effect of short-run temperature fluctuations on fertility. Regressions of monthly births on a flexible specification of lagged monthly temperature show that temperature has quantitatively important effects on both seasonal and nonseasonal variation in births. Summer temperature extremes reduce conceptions in the southern United States, explaining a substantial part of the observed seasonal birth pattern. Extreme cold shows no evidence of affecting conceptions. The results also show significant seasonality in births even after accounting for temperature. Controls for monthly temperature do not explain the persistent spring peak in births in northern Europe. This finding suggests that other factors play an important role.
Marital status and mortality: The role of health
Authors: Lillard Lee A. , Panis Constantijn W. A. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Prior literature has shown that married men live longer than unmarried men. Possible explanations are that marriage protects its incumbents or that healthier men select themselves into marriage. Protective effects, however, introduce the possibility of adverse selection: Those in poor health have an incentive to marry. In this paper we explore the role of health in explaining mortality and marriage patterns, and distinguish protective effects from two types of selection effects. We find adverse selection on the basis of health (unhealthy men tend to (re)marry sooner) and positive selection on the basis of unmeasured factors that both promote good health and encourage marriage.
Cohort size and age-specific suicide rates: A contingent relationship
Authors: Pampel Fred C. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Trends in age-specific suicide rates relate to debates about the consequences of population aging and changes in cohort size for social well-being. Easterlin argues that large cohort size increases suicide rates by reducing relative income; Preston claims that suicide rates fall in large cohorts with high levels of political and social power. To integrate these competing arguments, this paper uses aggregate data on 18 high-income nations from 1953 to 1986 to demonstrate that the direction and strength of the relationship between cohort size and suicide depend on (1) age of the cohort, (2) gender, (3) national context, and (4) time period. The results show that large cohort size raises suicide for the young and middle-aged, but reduces it for the elderly. Also, the effects of cohort size prove stronger for men than for women, for nations with less collectivist institutions than for nations with more collectivist institutions, and for the 1950s and 1960s than for the 1970s and 1980s.
Internal migration in China, 1950–1988
Authors: Liang Zai , White Michael J. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper examines the long-term patterns of migration within China between 1950 and 1988. The analysis uses data from China's 1988 2/1,000 Fertility and Birth Control Survey, which asks respondents about their most recent interprovincial move. The results suggest that long-term migration patterns can be explained by political and economic changes in China. We argue that the approaches we introduce can offer significant insight into long-term migration patterns for countries where historical data on migration are unavailable or unreliable.
The political economy of inequality in the “age of extremes”
Authors: Hout Michael , Arum Richard , Voss Kim 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Massey spresidential address correctly points to growing economic inequality as one of the pressing issues of our day, but his analysis gives short shrift to the political institutions that underlie the economic trends. We supplement his analysis with a review of some of those institutions. In particular we point out how politics mediates between computerized production and inequality, between the segregation of education and inequality, and (drawing directly from American Apartheid) between housing markets and residential segregation.
Migration and premarital childbearing among Puerto Rican women
Authors: Landale Nancy S. , Hauan Susan M. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper examines the relationship between migration and premarital childbearing in a highly migratory Latino subgroup, Puerto Rican women. Using pooled origin-destination data from surveys conducted in Puerto Rico and in the New York metropolitan area, we find that first- and second-generation migrants to the u.s. mainland face substantially higher risks of conceiving and bearing a first child before marriage than do nonmigrants in Puerto Rico. This pattern is due largely to the relatively early transition to sexual activity among mainland women. Given the negative long-term consequences of premarital childbearing for women and their children, our findings call into question the assumption that migrants necessarily experience only positive outcomes as a result of the assimilation process.
The Nature of Gender
Authors: Udry J. Richard 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
I explain a biosocial model of women’s gendered behavior (behavior on which the sexes differ). This model integrates a macro sociological theory with a biological theory derived from primate behavior. The sociological model is designed to explain changes in the relationship between sex and behavior over time or between groups. The biological model is designed to explain individual within-sex variance and between-sex variance in gendered behavior in a cohort. Results from an original study are presented to demonstrate that within-sex variance in women’s gendered behavior is explained well by the primate model. I conclude that human nature is gendered. The implications of this conclusion are explored for demographic and other social science research.
Family Structure, Residential Mobility, and School Dropout: A Research Note
Authors: Astone Nan Marie , McLanahan Sara S. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper examines the hypothesis that high levels of residential mobility among nonintact families account for part of the well-known association between living in a nonintact family and dropping out of high school. Children from single-parent families and stepfamilies are more likely than children from two-parent families to move during the school year. As much as 30% of the difference in the risk of dropping out between children from stepfamilies and children from intact families can be explained by differences in residential mobility. Previously, mechanisms explaining school failure on the part of children in nonintact families were more plausible for children in single-parent families than for children in stepfamilies; high levels of residential mobility apply to both groups of children. In addition, residential mobility lends itself to manipulation by public policy, with potentially remedial effects for vulnerable children.
Neighborhood Context and the Transition to Sexual Activity among Young Black Women
Authors: Brewster Karin L. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Previous studies report that neighborhood characteristics influence pregnancy and childbearing risk among African-American adolescent women. These studies, however, leave unidentified the effects of many neighborhood properties on the proximate determinants of nonmarital fertility. In this study I examine the effects of neighborhood characteristics on the risk of nonmarital first intercourse and on contraceptive use among black female adolescents. The results suggest that neighborhood socioeconomic status, female employment and marital dissolution rates, and peers’ departure from mainstream lifecourse trajectories influence young black women’s sexual and contraceptive behavior. The effects of female employment and socioeconomic status are greater for teens in urban neighborhoods than for teens living elsewhere.
The Contours of Demography: Estimates and Projections
Authors: Preston Samuel H. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper considers the scope of demography and the various research approaches that legitimately could claim the label. As a small field lacking security in academic structures, demography has been unusually sensitive to demand factors, including those associated with perceived population problems. International health is cited as an area of increased demographic presence; reasons for this development are explored. The technology for performing research in demography is improving more rapidly than in many other areas of the social sciences, and thus is helping to improve the relative standing of the field. Taking a demand-oriented approach, the paper identifies several promising research areas in which demographers will be called on to address issues of national and international concern.
The Human Ecology of Tornadoes
Authors: Aguirre B. E. , Saenz Rogelio , Edmiston John , Yang Nan , Agramonte Elsa , Stuart Dietra L. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper offers an empirical test of the impact of human ecological patterns and other known correlates on tornado occurrence. It uses the National Severe Storms Forecast Center’s information on tornadoes from 1950 through 1990 and employs ecological data from the U.S. Bureau of the Census and the Environmental Protection Agency. The results show that metropolitan and other urban counties have higher odds of tornado occurrence than rural counties, and that the probability of occurrence of tornadoes increases with increases in the number of previous tornadoes. The paper assesses the meaning of this finding for demographers, atmospheric scientists, engineers, and disaster managers.
A Joint Model of Marital Childbearing and Marital Disruption
Authors: Lillard Lee A. , Waite Linda J. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Married couples with children appear to be less likely to end their marriages than childless couples, especially when the children are young. Although this suggests that children affect the chances that their parents will divorce, the process may not be so simple: the chances that the marriage will last also may affect couples’ willingness to make the commitment to the marriage implied by having children. This paper uses data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) to test the hypothesis that the risk of disruption faced by a married woman affects the chances that she will conceive and bear a child. The model used takes into account the simultaneous relationships between marital dissolution and marital fertility by including the hazard of disruption as a predictor of timing and likelihood of marital conception, and by including the results of previous fertility decisions as predictors of disruption of the marriage. We find that the hazard of disruption has strong negative effects on the hazard of marital childbearing, lengthening the intervals between births and decreasing the chances that a child will be born. This effect appears to be strongest for women who have had at least one child, either before or during the current marriage, although it is also large for childless women. Explicitly including the hazard of disruption in models of marital childbearing has sizable and important effects on many predictors of fertility.
Census adjustment and the distribution of federal spending
Authors: Murray Michael P. 
Published: March 2007

AbstractIn 1989, programs that use population counts to determine the distribution of their funds transferred $236 per capita to state and local governments. If the 1990 census were adjusted to reflect undercounting, about 40% of state and local governments would receive increased grants averaging $56 per miscounted person; other jurisdictions would lose an almost equal amount of grant money. The surprisingly small reallocations arise because 1) total funds allocated by population are essentially fixed; 2) allocations depend on other factors in addition to population; and 3) programs vary as to whether they allocate funds in direct or inverse proportion to population.
The relationship between cohabitation and divorce: Selectivity or causal influence?
Authors: Axinn William G. , Thornton Arland 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Recent evidence linking premarital cohabitation to high rates of divorce poses a complex theoretical and empirical puzzle. We develop hypotheses predicting that premarital cohabitation is selective of those who are prone to divorce as well as hypotheses predicting that the experience of premarital cohabitation produces attitudes and values which increase the probability of divorce. Using multiwave panel data from a recent cohort of young men and women in the United States, we specify and test models of these predictions. The results are consistent with hypotheses suggesting that cohabitation is selective of men and women who are less committed to marriage and more approving of divorce. The results also are consistent with the conclusion that cohabiting experiences significantly increase young people’s acceptance of divorce.
Residential preferences and residential choices in a multiethnic context
Authors: Clark William A. V. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
A study of the expressed preferences of four different ethnic groups in the Los Angeles metropolitan area shows strong desires for own-race combinations in the ethnicity of neighborhoods that individuals say they would choose when seeking a new residence. The results also show that Anglos are not the only group to practice “avoidance” of other racial/ethnic neighborhoods, although avoidance behavior by Anglos is the strongest. Because the issues of racial composition are socially sensitive, additional tests examined the relationship of preferences to behavior. Although many behaviors generally follow expressed preferences, members of households who expressed “no preference” also were found to largely choose own race neighborhoods. The results of this study suggest that the expressed preference for own race/own ethnicity, in combination with short-distance local moves, is likely to maintain present patterns of separation in U.S. metropolitan areas.
Writing the names: Marriage style, living arrangements, and first birth interval in a Nepali society
Authors: Fricke Tom , Teachman Jay D. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Using data from a Nepali population, this analysis argues that marriage style and postmarital living arrangements affect coital frequency to produce variations in the timing of first birth after marriage. Event history analysis of the first birth interval for 149 women suggests that women’s autonomy in marriage decisions and marriage to cross-cousins accelerate the pace of entry into first birth. Extended-household residence with reduced natal kin contact, on the other hand, significantly lengthens the first birth interval. These findings are consistent with previous arguments in the literature while offering new evidence for the impact of extended-family residence on fertility.
Marriage selection and mortality patterns: Inferences and fallacies
Authors: Goldman Noreen 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Researchers have long wondered whether marital-status differences in mortality arise largely from selection mechanisms or from causal processes typically known as marriage protection. Unfortunately, many investigators have relied on aggregate patterns of mortality differentials—such as age schedules of excess mortality in the single population or the relationship between the level of excess mortality and the relative size of the single population—to make inferences about the relative importance of selection and causal processes. In this paper, a simple mathematical simulation model is used to demonstrate that many inferences derived from observed patterns are simply not justified. This finding highlights the importance of prospective data for assessing the relative importance of selection and causal factors in accounting for the excess mortality of the unmarried.
Gender differences in economic well-being among the elderly of java
Authors: Rudkin Laura 
Published: March 2007

AbstractWith populations aging rapidly in many developing nations, issues of economic dependency among the elderly are of increasing importance. Using data from a 1986 survey of the elderly on Java, Indonesia, I describe gender differences in economic well-being and identify characteristics associated with economic disadvantage. At both the individual and the household level, older women have fewer resources than older men. Even within categories of support (work income and remittances), women have lower levels of well-being. Gender differences in household-level economic well-being are due primarily to differences in household structure and in levels of skills. Gender differences in individual receipts (from all sources) are more complicated, but can be understood more clearly with reference to gender differences in skills levels (literacy, language, job skills), current work status and authority, and domestic authority.
Forgone labor participation and earning due to childbearing among Norwegian women
Authors: Kravdal Øystein 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Individual-level retrospective data from the Family and Occupation Survey of 1988 are used to assess the time diverted from gainful employment because of the presence of children in two Norwegian birth cohorts. We find that a two-child mother born in 1950, whose births occurred in her early twenties, lost 6.6 woman-years up to age 37, compared to a childless woman. By matching information on registered income with the survey data, we estimate that her lost income amounts to $151,000 at 1990 prices. After taxation the loss is $98,000. Women with fewer than 12 years of schooling seem to forgo more labor market activity by reason of childbearing than do their better-educated counterparts. The pattern is less clear with respect to the loss of income.
A description of the extreme aged population based on improved medicare enrollment data
Authors: Kestenbaum Bert 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The mortality and size of the extreme aged population can be studied most accurately with Medicare enrollment data from the Social Security Administration’s Master Beneficiary Record after certain types of questionable records are eliminated. With the improved data base we find that mortality rates at the very old ages are higher than published rates, we are more confident of the reality of the race crossover, and we can estimate the number of centenarians more accurately. Furthermore, a large matched-records study shows close agreement on age at death between the Master Beneficiary Record and the death certificate.
Extreme mortality in nineteenth-century Africa: the case of Liberian immigrants
Authors: Mc Daniel Antonio 
Published: March 2007

AbstractSeveral studies have examined the mortality of immigrants from Europe to Africa in the nineteenth century. This paper examines the level of mortality in Liberia of Africans who emigrated there from the United States. A life table is estimated from data collected by the American Colonization Society from 1820 to 1843. The analysis reflects the mortality experience of a population that is transplanted from one disease environment to another, more exacting, disease environment. The results of this analysis show that these Liberian immigrants experienced the highest mortality rates in accurately recorded human history.
Birth interval and family effects on postneonatal mortality in Brazil
Authors: Curtis Siân L. , Diamond Ian , McDonald John W. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
In this paper random-effects logistic models are used to analyze the effects of the preceding birth interval on postneonatal mortality in Brazil, controlling for the correlation of survival outcomes between siblings. The results are compared to those obtained by using ordinary logistic regression. Family effects are found to be highly significant in the random-effects model, but the substantive conclusions of the ordinary logistic model are preserved. In particular, birth interval effects remain highly significant.
Hutterite fecundability by age and parity: Strategies for frailty modeling of event histories
Authors: Larsen Ulla , Vaupel James W. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Effective fecundability declines with age and parity. Furthermore, women differ in their effective fecundability: some women have persistently low or high monthly chances of live-birth conception. Estimates are presented concerning the magnitude of these effects in a natural-fertility population: 406 Hutterite women in North America who had 3,206 births, largely in the 1940s and 1950s. The estimates are based on models that incorporate the effects of persistent heterogeneity and that use the full information provided by multiple-spell duration data. In addition, hazards rather than probabilities are modeled, piecewise linear hazard functions are used, and age and parity effects are decomposed systematically. These methods permit the development of more elaborate models of changing fecundability and of heterogeneity in postpartum amenorrhea.
Prenatal and delivery care and childhood immunization in guatemala: Do family and community matter?
Authors: Pebley Anne R. , Goldman Noreen , Rodríguez Germán 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
In this paper we investigate family choices about pregnancy-related care and the use of childhood immunization. Estimates obtained from a multilevel logistic model indicate that use of formal (or “modern ”) health services differs substantially by ethnicity, by social and economic factors, and by availability of health services. The results also show that family and community membership are very important determinants of the use of health care, even in the presence of controls for a large number of observed characteristics of individuals, families, and communities.
The Demographic Transition in Southern Africa: Another Look at the Evidence from Botswana and Zimbabwe
Authors: Thomas Duncan , Muvandi Ityai 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Botswana and Zimbabwe have been acclaimed as being on the vanguard of the demographic transition in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper examines the comparability of the CPS and the DHS data for each country and finds that part of the observed decline in aggregate fertility rates in both countries can be attributed to differences in sample composition. Women of the same cohort tend to be better educated in the second survey relative to the first. This fact explains part—but not all—of the observed fertility decline; for example, it appears to account for up to half the observed decline among women age 25–34 in 1984 in Zimbabwe.
The Demographic Transition in Southern Africa: Reviewing the Evidence from Botswana and Zimbabwe
Authors: Thomas Duncan , Muvandi Ityai 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Part, but not all, of the observed decline in the number of children ever born reported in the 1984 CPS and the 1988 DHS in Botswana and Zimbabwe can be attributed to differences in sample composition: women in the 1988 survey appear to be better educated than women of the same cohort in the 1984 survey. Blanc and Rutstein argue that differences in education levels in the pairs of surveys are not significant. However, weighted Kolmogorov-Smimov statistics, a comparison of average years of schooling, and the proportions of women who complete primary school or attend secondary school all indicate that the differences are, in fact, significant. This is true in both Botswana and Zimbabwe. Blanc and Rutstein also claim that these differences do not account for any of the observed decline in fertility between the surveys of women age 15 to 49. Their methodology follows cohorts of women rather than age-groups and thus cannot possibly address this issue. Furthermore, to interpret their results, response error and respondent education must be uncorrelated: this is a key assumption which is violated by the data. We stand by our conclusions and argue for caution when aggregate statistics from the CPS and the DHS are used to make projections about the course of fertility and population growth in Botswana and Zimbabwe.