bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Human osteoblastic cell response to a Ca‐ and P‐enriched titanium surface obtained by anodization
Authors: Franco Rosemeire de Lordo , Chiesa Roberto , Beloti Marcio Mateus , de Oliveira Paulo Tambasco , Rosa Adalberto Luiz 
Published: March 2008

AbstractThe aim of the present study was to evaluate the in vitro osteogenic potential of subcultured human osteoblastic cells derived from alveolar bone on a titanium (Ti) surface produced by an anodized alkali treatment (BSP‐AK). Primary osteoblastic cells were subcultured on BSP‐AK and machined Ti discs (control) and grown for periods of up to 21 days under osteogenic conditions. Morphologic and biochemical methods were used to assess important parameters of in vitro bone‐like tissue formation. Although no major differences were observed between the BSP‐AK and the control Ti surface in terms of cell attachment and mineralized matrix formation, a significant increase in cell population, ALP activity, and collagen content was detected in cultures on BSP‐AK surface. Our results demonstrate that human osteoblastic cells are sensitive to the BSP‐AK‐modified Ti surface during the transitional stage between the end of the proliferative phase and the onset of the differentiation/matrix maturation ones. Together with the good mechanical properties exhibited by the Ca‐ and P‐ coating, our findings suggest that BSP‐AK treatment could be useful for the development of a new surface for dental and orthopedic implants. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Biomed Mater Res, 2009
correlates of high expressed emotion attitudes among parents of bipolar adolescents
Authors: Coville Allison L. , Miklowitz David J. , Taylor Dawn O. , Low Kathryn G. 
Published: March 2008

AbstractHigh expressed emotion (EE) attitudes among parents are associated with an increased likelihood of relapse among bipolar patients, but the origins of these attitudes are unclear. This study examined characteristics of bipolar disorder in adolescents that might be associated with high EE attitudes among parents. We hypothesized that an earlier onset of mood disorder and greater current illness severity would predict higher levels of criticism and emotional overinvolvement among parents. Demographic, diagnostic, and EE data were collected from interviews with parents of 44 bipolar adolescents (mean age 14.5 yrs.). Current illness severity and functioning were not associated with high‐EE attitudes. Parents of girls, however, were more likely to be high in criticism than parents of boys. Parents of girls expressed more critical comments when the child had an adolescent compared to a childhood onset of bipolar disorder, whereas the reverse pattern was evident among parents of boys. We encourage prospective investigations of the developmental correlates of parental EE attitudes in larger, more heterogeneous samples of bipolar adolescents and children. © 2008, Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Clin Psychol 64: 438–449, 2008.
A qualitative assessment of microclimatic perturbations in a tunnel
Authors: Salve Rohit , Krakauer Nir Y. , Kowalsky Michael B. , Finsterle Stefan 
Published: March 2008

AbstractUnderstanding microclimate dynamics in tunnels is important for designing, operating, and maintaining underground facilities. For example, for the geological disposal of radioactive materials, condensation of vapour should be minimized as liquid water can accelerate waste package corrosion and radionuclide release. While microclimate dynamics are known to be dominated by the advection of heat and moisture, additional factors may also be important, such as the presence of fractures or faults. We present data collected using a relatively inexpensive method that is under development to assess microclimatic perturbations underground. By combining standard temperature and relative humidity sensors with low‐cost sensors designed to detect changes in water content, we were able to infer microclimate dynamics along a tunnel at the proposed geological repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. We observed significant differences in the pattern of condensation in a faulted zone relative to that of a non‐faulted zone, suggesting that hydrogeologic features have to be accounted for when evaluating the microclimate dynamics of excavated cavities in fractured, partially saturated rocks. Published in 2008 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Fuzzy verification of high‐resolution gridded forecasts: a review and proposed framework
Authors: Ebert Elizabeth E. 
Published: March 2008

AbstractHigh‐resolution forecasts from numerical models can look quite realistic and provide the forecaster with very useful guidance. However, when verified using traditional metrics they often score quite poorly because of the difficulty of predicting an exact match to the observations at high resolution. ‘Fuzzy’ verification rewards closeness by relaxing the requirement for exact matches between forecasts and observations. The key to the fuzzy approach is the use of a spatial window or neighbourhood surrounding the forecast and/or observed points. The treatment of the data within the window may include averaging (upscaling), thresholding, or generation of a PDF, depending on the particular fuzzy method used and its implicit decision model concerning what makes a good forecast. The size of the neighbourhood can be varied to provide verification results at multiple scales, thus allowing the user to determine at which scales the forecast has useful skill.This article describes a framework for fuzzy verification that incorporates several fuzzy verification methods. It is demonstrated on a high‐resolution precipitation forecast from the United Kingdom (UK) and the results interpreted to show the additional information that can be gleaned from this approach. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society
A multi‐model/multi‐analysis limited area ensemble: calibration issues
Authors: Marrocu Marino , Chessa Piero A. 
Published: March 2008

AbstractIn this paper four different post‐processing techniques: the Bayesian model averaging (BMA), the ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) with a variant known as EMOS+ and a new dressing kernel (DRESS) are applied and compared, in a pre‐operational context, to calibrate a mesoscale multi‐model multi‐analysis ensemble. The ensemble makes use of three different limited area models (Bologna Limited Area Model (BOLAM), MM5 and RAMS), one of them used twice with different setups, fed with two sets of analysis and boundary conditions obtained from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) general circulation models. The resulting ensemble of eight members was run for a period of 6 months (from October 2002 to April 2003) in a Euro–Atlantic domain. The forecast was validated against 2 m temperature measured at 21 meteorological stations scattered across Sardinia (Italy). For each method the calibration ability was assessed evaluating the flatness of the rank histogram, the coverage of the expected forecast intervals and the width of the associated probability distribution function. Results show that BMA and DRESS are the best in improving the calibration of the raw ensemble whereas EMOS and EMOS+ have proven worse, with the latter marginally better. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society
On the use of the intensity‐scale verification technique to assess operational precipitation forecasts
Authors: Csima Gabriella , Ghelli Anna 
Published: March 2008

AbstractThe article describes the attempt to include the intensity‐scale technique introduced by Casati et al. (2004) into a set of standardized verifications used in operational centres. The intensity‐scale verification approach accounts for the spatial structure of the forecast field and allows the skill to be diagnosed as a function of the scale of the forecast error and intensity of the precipitation events. The intensity‐scale method has been used to verify two different resolutions of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) over France, and to compare the performance of the ECMWF and the Hungarian Meteorological Service operational model (ALADIN) forecasts, run over Hungary. Two case studies have been introduced, which show some interesting insight into the spatial scale of the error. The distribution of daily skill score for an extended period of time is also presented. The intensity‐scale technique shows that the forecasts in general exhibit better skill for large‐scale events, and lower skill for small‐scale and intense events. In the paper, it is mentioned how some of the stringent assumptions on the domain over which the method can be applied, and the availability of the matched forecasts and observations, can limit its usability in an operational environment. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society
How much does simplification of probability forecasts reduce forecast quality?
Authors: Doblas‐Reyes F. J. , Coelho C. A. S. , Stephenson D. B. 
Published: March 2008

AbstractProbability forecasts from an ensemble are often discretized into a small set of categories before being distributed to the users. This study investigates how such simplification can affect the forecast quality of probabilistic predictions as measured by the Brier score (BS). An example from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational seasonal ensemble forecast system is used to show that the simplification of the forecast probabilities reduces the Brier skill score (BSS) by as much as 57% with respect to the skill score obtained with the full set of probabilities issued from the ensemble. This is more obvious for a small number of probability categories and is mainly due to a decrease in forecast resolution of up to 36%. The impact of the simplification as a function of the ensemble size is also discussed. The results suggest that forecast quality should be made available for the set of probabilities that the forecast user has access to as well as for the complete set of probabilities issued by the ensemble forecasting system. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society
Understanding forecast verification statistics
Authors: Mason S. J. 
Published: March 2008

AbstractAlthough there are numerous reasons for performing a verification analysis, there are usually two general questions that are of interest: are the forecasts good, and can we be confident that the estimate of forecast quality is not misleading? When calculating a verification score, it is not usually obvious how the score can answer either of these questions. Some procedures for attempting to answer the questions are reviewed, with particular focus onp‐values and confidence intervals.P‐values are shown to be rather unhelpful in answering either question, especially when applied to probabilistic verification scores, and confidence intervals are to be preferred. However, confidence intervals cannot reveal biases in the value of a score that arises from an inadequate experimental design for testing on truly out‐of‐sample observations. Some specific problems with cross validation are highlighted. Finally, in the interests of increasing the insight into forecast strengths and weaknesses and in pointing towards methods for improving forecast quality, a plea is made for a more discriminating selection of verification procedures than has been adopted to date. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society
Forecast verification: current status and future directions
Authors: Casati B. , Wilson L. J. , Stephenson D. B. , Nurmi P. , Ghelli A. , Pocernich M. , Damrath U. , Ebert E. E. , Brown B. G. , Mason S. 
Published: March 2008

AbstractResearch and development of new verification strategies and reassessment of traditional forecast verification methods has received a great deal of attention from the scientific community in the last decade. This scientific effort has arisen from the need to respond to changes encompassing several aspects of the verification process, such as the evolution of forecasting systems, or the desire for more meaningful verification approaches that address specific forecast user requirements. Verification techniques that account for the spatial structure and the presence of features in forecast fields, and which are designed specifically for high‐resolution forecasts have been developed. The advent of ensemble forecasts has motivated the re‐evaluation of some of the traditional scores and the development of new verification methods for probability forecasts. The expected climatological increase of extreme events and their potential socio‐economical impacts have revitalized research studies addressing the challenges concerning extreme event verification. Verification issues encountered in the operational forecasting environment have been widely discussed, verification needs for different user communities have been identified, and models to assess the forecast value for specific users have been proposed. Proper verification practice and correct interpretation of verification statistics has been extensively promoted with recent publications and books, tutorials and workshops, and the development of open‐source software and verification tools. This paper addresses some of the current issues in forecast verification, reviews some of the most recently developed verification techniques, and provides recommendations for future research. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown in the right of Canada.
The impenetrable hedge: a note on propriety, equitability and consistency
Authors: Jolliffe Ian T. 
Published: March 2008

AbstractIn weather and climate forecasting, hedging is said to occur whenever a forecaster's judgement and the forecast differ, and it is usually taken as evident that hedging is undesirable. Forecasts are often judged by computing a verification measure or score. A number of different scores is available in most circumstances, and to choose between them, various desirable properties of scores have been defined. It is generally accepted that it is undesirable to use a score for which hedging can improve the score or its expected value. Three ‘desirable’ properties of scores are linked to the idea that hedging should be avoided, namely propriety, equitability and consistency. It is fair to say that none of these properties is fully understood. The aim of this article is to provide some clarification and new insights, as well as some historical background. Nearly as many questions are raised as are answered. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society
Seasonal forecasting of Ethiopian spring rains
Authors: Diro G. T. , Black E. , Grimes D. I. F. 
Published: March 2008

AbstractReliable prediction of rainfall in advance of the rainy season would have enormous social and economic benefits to countries such as Ethiopia that depend on rain‐fed agriculture. Moreover, the development of statistical seasonal forecasting models provides insights into important scientific problems such as the predictability of rainfall, the large‐scale controls on rainfall, and the teleconnections with tropical and extra‐tropical processes. This article describes the development of statistical seasonal forecasts of the Ethiopian spring rains. Because of the spatial variation in both the interannual variability and the annual cycle of rainfall, Ethiopia was divided into five homogeneous rainfall zones, and separate forecasts were developed for each zone. Two techniques (multiple linear regression (MLR) and linear discriminant analysis (LDA)) were applied to four sets of predictors (selection by either stepwise regression or discriminant analysis either including or excluding the contemporaneous season). All the forecasts had more skill than either a random or climatological forecast. The method of selecting predictors and developing the models was found to have surprisingly little impact on forecast skill. Interestingly, including contemporaneous SST did not always lead to a significant increase in skill. Comparison between the skill of the forecasts in different zones shows that the models had most skill in the southern and eastern parts of Ethiopia. For all forecasts, the extreme years (very rainy and very dry) were more reliably forecast than the average years. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society
Accounting for the effect of observation errors on verification of MOGREPS
Authors: Bowler Neill E. 
Published: March 2008

AbstractA number of articles have looked at the effect of observation errors on verification statistics. In this article, those methods are brought together in order to assess the importance of observation errors on verification statistics for the Met Office short‐range ensemble prediction system (MOGREPS).The results indicate that the effect of observation errors is substantial–reducing the apparent skill of the forecast system by around 1 day in forecast lead time. The effect of observation errors is typically largest at short lead times when forecast errors are smallest. © Crown Copyright 2008. Reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
A spatial verification method applied to the evaluation of high‐resolution ensemble forecasts
Authors: Marsigli Chiara , Montani Andrea , Paccangnella Tiziana 
Published: March 2008

AbstractThe verification of ensemble systems is being operationally carried out in several meteorological centres. However, the main operational ensemble systems have a coarser spatial resolution with respect to the deterministic runs. Only recently, high‐resolution limited‐area ensembles have started to be run on a regular basis. Their verification requires combining the usual probabilistic evaluation with the statistical verification techniques which are being developed for high‐resolution model forecasts (1–10 km). These techniques permit to evaluate a deterministic forecast in a probabilistic manner, by taking into account the spatio‐temporal distribution of the forecast at different scales.In this work, a spatial verification technique, called ‘distributional method’, is used to verify the Consortium for Small‐scale MOdeling Limited‐area Ensemble Prediction System (COSMO–LEPS) ensemble system, a mesoscale ensemble with 10 km horizontal resolution. The system is mainly designed to give probabilistic assistance in the forecast of severe weather, in particular of intense precipitation possibly leading to floods, hence verification is focused on the ability of the system in forecasting precipitation at high spatial resolution. The methodology is based on a comparison of forecasts and observations in terms of some parameters of their distributions, evaluated after the values are aggregated over boxes of selected size. In particular, performances in terms of average, a few percentiles and maximum forecast value in a box are considered.The system is compared against European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Ensemble Prediction System (ECMWF EPS), addressing the issues of an intercomparison between a higher‐resolution smaller‐size ensemble and a lower‐resolution larger‐size one. Results show that when the forecast of the average amount of precipitation over an area is concerned, COSMO–LEPS is more skilful than the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) only from the resolution point of view. Therefore, although not properly calibrated, it is more capable of distinguishing between events and non‐events, especially for moderate and high precipitation. Furthermore, COSMO–LEPS has skill in forecasting the occurrence of precipitation peaks over an area, irrespective of the exact location.The analysis of the score behaviour as a function of the distribution parameter shows that EPS has the maximum skill in reproducing the central part of the observed precipitation distribution over an area of about 10 000 km2, while COSMO–LEPS is more skilful in reproducing the tail of the observed precipitation distribution.The problem of the predictability of precipitation at different spatial scales is also investigated, showing the role of different system resolutions. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society
The accuracy of weather forecasts for Melbourne, Australia
Authors: Stern Harvey 
Published: March 2008

AbstractAn analysis of the accuracy, and trends in the accuracy, of medium‐range weather forecasts for Melbourne, Australia, is presented. The analysis shows that skill is evident in forecasts of temperature, rainfall, and qualitative descriptions of expected weather up to 7 days in advance. The analysis also demonstrates the existence of a long‐term trend in the accuracy of the forecasts. For example, Day‐3 forecasts of minimum temperature in recent years (average error ∼1.6 °C) are as skilful as Day‐1 forecasts of minimum temperature in the 1960s and 1970s, whilst Day‐4 forecasts of maximum temperature in recent years (average error ∼2.0 °C) are more skilful than Day‐1 forecasts of maximum temperature in the 1960s and 1970s. It is suggested that this trend may be largely attributed to: a combination of (1) enhancements in the description of the atmosphere's initial state provided by remote sensing and other observational technologies; (2) advances in broad‐scale numerical weather prediction (NWP); and (3) improvements in the forecast process that are supported by good organizational management, including developing and implementing new prediction techniques, and careful succession planning. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society
Detailed 1H and 13C NMR structural assignment and relative stereochemistry determination for three closely related sesquiterpene lactones
Authors: Heleno Vladimir Constantino Gomes , de Oliveira Kleber Thiago , Lopes João Luis Callegari , Lopes Norberto Peporine , Ferreira Antonio Gilberto 
Published: March 2008

AbstractA complete analysis of 1H and 13C NMR spectra of the trypanocidal sesquiterpene lactone eremantholide C and two of its analogues is described. These structurally similar sesquiterpene lactones were submitted to 1H NMR, 13C {1H} NMR, gCOSY, gHSQC, gHMBC, J‐resolved and DPFGSE‐NOE NMR techniques. The detailed analysis of those results, correlated to some computational calculations (molecular mechanics), led to the total and unequivocal assignment of all 1H and 13C NMR data. The determination of all 1H/1H coupling constants and all signal multiplicities, together with the elimination of previous ambiguities were also achieved. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
A discontinuous enrichment method for three‐dimensional multiscale harmonic wave propagation problems in multi‐fluid and fluid–solid media
Authors: Massimi Paolo , Tezaur Radek , Farhat Charbel 
Published: March 2008

AbstractAn evanescent wave occurs when a propagating incident wave impinges on an interface between two fluid, solid, or fluid–solid media at a subcritical angle. Mathematical properties of such a wave make it difficult to capture with standard finite element discretization schemes. For this reason, the discontinuous enrichment method (DEM) developed in (Comput. Methods Appl. Mech. Eng. 2001; 190:6455–6479; Comput. Methods Appl. Mech. Eng. 2003; 192:1389–1419; Comput. Methods Appl. Mech. Eng. 2003; 192:3195–3210; Int. J. Numer. Meth. Engng 2004; 61:1938–1956; Wave Motion 2004; 39(4):307–317; Int. J. Numer. Meth. Engng 2006; 66:2086–2114; Int. J. Numer. Meth. Engng 2006; 66:796–815) is extended here to the solution of a class of three‐dimensional evanescent wave problems in the frequency domain. To this effect, new DEM elements for three‐dimensional elastodynamic problems are first proposed. Then, these and other DEM elements previously developed for the efficient solution of the Helmholtz problem are further enriched with free‐space solutions of model evanescent wave problems, in order to achieve high accuracy at practical mesh resolution for fluid–fluid and fluid–solid applications. The performance of the extended DEM elements is reported to be better than that of its basic Helmholtz and Navier counterparts and superior to that achieved by the classical high‐order polynomial finite element method. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.