The analysis of performance due to impact of bullwhip effect in Covid: select Indian sector perspective
Authors: Gupta Sachin , Goel Sakshi , Kumar Santosh , Nagpal Gaurav 
Published: March 2024

Purpose
The purpose of the study is to analyze and measure the impact of disruption in demand which causes the bullwhip effect. The bullwhip effect impacts the performance of firm. Just like everything else, covid has had an impact on the disruption of supply chain too leading to the need of measuring the bullwhip effect of select Indian sectors. The comparison on bullwhip effect is drawn in pre- and during covid era in major sectors. The study helps to understand, analyze and measure the impact of covid and its challenges to supply chain.

Design/methodology/approach
The empirical study is carried out on five major select Indian sectors which have the largest market capitalization in Indian economy, namely, FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods), automobile, utility, consumer durable and IT (information technology). The disruption in the supply chain is measured in terms of bullwhip effect. The novel metric ratio of bullwhip effect is computed which is based on demand–supply mismatch and analyzed based on 10 years of observations. The data is analyzed twice, first from 2011 to 2019 (pre-covid era) and second from 2019 to 2021 (during covid era). Each time, Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) sectoral indices are used to compute the bullwhip ratio, and empirical data is collected using Prowess. The firms listed in BSE represent most of the sector. Such panel data helps us to analyze inter- and intraindustry bullwhip effect. The changes in the bullwhip effect for various BSE listed firms are analyzed pre- and during covid era. These changes are specifically studied at the manufacturer end of the supply chain. Later regression analysis is performed to study the changes required in production based on the demand. The various strategies that cause or mitigate the impact of covid in intraindustry can be derived from the study. The disruption in production is analyzed based on the disruption in demand and profit before interest and tax (PBIT).

Findings
In pre-covid era, the percentage of demand disruption was low in select sectors but not exactly zero. Covid caused the disruptions in supply chain across the globe which resulted in bullwhip effect in Indian sectors too. Yet some of the sectors were able to cope better with the situation as compared to others. In the present study, same is analyzed statistically, and results are derived for practical significance.

Research limitations/implications
The empirical data is having the observations of past 10 years to analyze the pattern of demand disruption in the firms and hence the sectors. The impact of covid is studied on performance, which is analyzed in terms of PBIT. The impact of other factors (political, social, marketing policies, etc.) that may cause disruption in the supply chain of a firm is not considered in the study.

Originality/value
Study is unique, as it measures disruption and provides a peerless way to study the inter- and intrasectors. To analyze the impact of bullwhip effect on sector performance, it is very much required to first measure the bullwhip; this measure of bullwhip as a ratio of the slopes of demand and supply is a novel approach. The study emphasizes that the impact of covid is not the same among the firms, and hence among the sectors. Also, it is found that the impact of such adversities can be mitigated, and performance of firm can remain intact in turbulent times too.