bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Economic Outlook 1991 – 1995: The London Business School with Gower Publishing: THE HOUSING MAFUCJIT IN RECESSION : A PAINFUL ADJUSTMENT TO ERM DISCIPLINE
Authors: Milne Alistau 
Published: January 2008

We, together with almost every other commentator on the UK housing market, forecast a recovery of house prices and turnover during 1991. These hopes have been disappointed. This Forecast Release addresses some of the questions raised by this prolonged weakness in the housing market. Why did we, and so many others mis‐judge the outlook for house prices and housing investment? Are there structural problems, especially those associated with the adjustment to the inflationary discipline of the E M, which are preventing a revival? When will recoverly take place and can there ever be a house‐price boom similar to 1984–1988 again?One reason for the unanticipated weakness of the housing market is the growing problem of mortgage arrears and possessions. This can be expected to produce at least some temporary weakening of house prices as a reaction to the current volume of empty properties being put onto the market.There is a more fundamental reason for the current weakness of house prices. Unlike previous house price booms and busts, the present recession offers no relief to the hard‐pressed borrower in the form of a rapid inflation of average earnings. Difficulties with mortgage repayments, for highly indebted households, are set to continue for some time. These lessons are not being lost, either on prospective purchasers who are’ being discouraged from taking out substantial mortgages in relation to their incomes, or on mortgage lenders who are being much more prudent in the setting of mortgage to‐ income and mortgage‐to‐price limits. The result is a long overdue adjustment of British attitudes towards own er‐occupation.
Money as a Potential Anchor for the Price Level: a Critique of the P* Approach
Authors: ALLEN CHRIS , HALL STEPHEN 
Published: January 2008

A number of recent articles have attempted to restore the use of a simple measure of the money supply as an indicator of future price levels and to re‐establish a causal link from money to prices. Most notably Hallman, Porter and Small (HPS) (1989a), (1989b) originated the approach using US data and Hannah and James(1989) have applied it to the UK The approach broadens the traditional idea of a constant velocity of money by introducing the notion of V* and Q*, the long‐run value of velocity and income. These are then used to define P from the traditional quantity theory of money as the long‐run equilibrium price level. The analysis then proceeds to estimate a standard Error Correction Model (ECM) for price determination with the levels effect given by (P‐P*)t‐1. The conclusion drawn is that ‘a measure of money that determines the long‐run future level of prices is useful in determining the proper monetary policy for attaining price stability. We have shown, through the construction of P*, that M2 can serve as this determinant for the price level’ (Hallman, Porter and Small (1982a) p. 23).We argue in this paper that the P* approach is flawed. It is certainly more complex than traditional monetarist approaches but the fundamental questions of causality are in no way either affected or resolved. The P* analysis is a variant on more conventional cointegration analysis (Engle and Granger (1987), Johansen (1988), Hall (1989)) and we argue that the Johansen framework allows us to address the question in a formal and more complete way. When this approach is applied to the US data used by HPS, we find that while the P* relationship does indeed represent a cointegrating one, it does not have a causal link with prices but rather the causality runs from prices to money ‐ this result conforms well to the work of Hendry and Ericsson (1990) or Hall, Henry and Wilcox (1990), which use this form of relationship to model the demand for money.
Briefing Paper: Non‐Manufacturing Investment and UK Aggregate Demand
Authors: MILNE ALISTAIR 
Published: January 2008

The standard view of business fluctuations gives the leading role to investment, in both fixed capital and stocks, which raises aggregate demand in boom and reduces it in slump. The recent behaviour of the UK economy seems to have been a particularly marked departure from the standard model. Movements in personal consumption have played an unusually important role in both the rapid increase of demand from 1986 to 1989 and in the current recession. Stock investment, owing to improvements in the technology of stock control, is no longer a driving force. Manufacturing investment, while rising during the boom, contributed relatively little to increasing demand. The conventional wisdom now has it that recent UK experience is that of a consumption driven business cycle.This Briefing Paper argues that this down‐playing of the role of investment has been overdone. What has deceived the eye is the concentration on manufacturing. Investment did make a very large contribution to the recent boom, with the biggest increases in investment undertaken by non‐manufacturing industry: a component of demand which attracts little regular scrutiny and less understanding. The textbook model still applies to the UK.
Why the Pound Should be Devalued Inside the ERM
Authors: WREN‐LEWIS SIMON 
Published: January 2008

I believe the choice of DM2.95 as a central rate for sterling's entry into the ERM was a major mistake of macroeconomic policy, on a par with monetary targeting and underestimatingtlle late 1980s' consumer‐led boom. Indeed it was a belief that we were about to make this mistake that led me to undertake, with colleagues at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, a detailed and unique study of the choice facing policy makers. I shall have more to say on that study below. Shortly after entry I wrote: “The danger is that the government will attempt to defend the present exchange rate bands at all costs. As a result it may produce, or fail to prevent, a recession on the same scale as 1980‐81. (Wren‐Lewis, 1990, emphasis added). I fear that much of this has come to pass, but we still have a chance to retrieve something.To propose a devaluation of sterling within the ERM requires three distinct arguments. The first is that we entered the ERM at a real exchange rate which was above a level required to produce a sustainable current account of the balance of payments. The second is that this matters, and in particular that it has prevented the government from taking steps to counteract the recession. The third is that the gains in adjusting, through a realignment, to a lower rate now outweigh the loss of credibility that would be involved. I shall consider each point in turn.1
Economic Outlook 1991–1995: The London Business School with Gower Publishing: Forecast Release: THE CHANCELLOR'S ECONOMIC ADVICE
Authors: Dicks Geoffrey 
Published: January 2008

Within the last month the Chancellor has made two important speeches on macroeconomic policy. The first, to Surrey businessmen in June, pledged the UK to the French route to a ‘virtuous circle of low inflation, rising competitiveness and increasing market share’; the second, in July to the European Policy Forum, vigorously defended his present policy against the alternatives, which he dismissed as ‘illusory or destined to fail’, of devaluation or cutting interest rates. On both occasions Mr. Lamont placed the permanent conquest of inflation at the centre of his policy, arguing that holding sterling at its present central parity of DM 2.95 is the only way to achieve this objective. In his view the consequence of any of the alternative proposals would be ‘either higher interest rates, higher inflation, or most likely both’.In this Forecast Release we consider these claims and the economic advice on which it is based. On the latter we would surmise that the thrust of the advice which Mr. Lamont is receiving is that he has the opportunity to deliver a sustainably low inflation rate and that this requires a stable pound within the ERM. The alternatives involve a sterling devaluation which, no matter how obtained, would obstruct the goal of permanently low inflation in return for only transient benefits on output and unemployment. But the price of defeating inflation has been high and is not yet fully paid. Moreover the goalposts have been moved: to reach the French position on competitiveness, which underpins their gains in market share and which has taken the best part of a deeade to achieve, requires a still better inflation performance on the part of the UK and while this is being achieved, adjustment costs will persist. It is partly in defence of his own policies and partly in an attempt to moderate the already‐high adjustment costs that Mr. Lamont has adopted a more combative stance. His advice is that to compete with Europe, we cannot award ourselves pay increases far in excess of European levels, indeed we need a period of below‐average pay rises.
The London Business School with Gower Publishing
Authors: Dicks Geoffrey 
Published: January 2008

The New Year has started with a burst of enthusiasm in UK asset markets. The stock market has reached an all‐time high and the pound has recovered from the sub‐1.50 and DM2.40 lows that it hit in the aftermath of its exit from the ERM last September. There are external reasons for the buoyant start to 1993, namely the exposure of UK companies to the us economy where recovery seems assured, and the desire to park short‐term funds outside the EMS where renewed turmoil greeted the start of the New Year. But over and above this, hopes have risen that the worst of the UK downturn may be over, that recession is at last ending and recovery beginning. It is this question that we examine here.We have argued before that the recession will not be over in any meaningful sense until the level of output tops the pre‐recession peak of the second quarter of 1990, output growth returns to its trend rate of 2‐2.5per cent and unemployment starts falling, But in a more limited sense we can ask whether output has stopped falling and whether a recovery in output is under way. Specifically we may ask whether, when the CSO comes to date the trough of the recession, it will be put in 1992 or whether it is still ahead of us in 1993.In answer to this last question, we find that the trough of the recession may have occurred as long ago as April 1992. If so, the initial recovery phase has been feeble to say the least ‐ there is almost no hard data yet showing a recovery in output. What is evident ‐ and it is on this that market enthusiasm is based ‐ is that (consumer) demand is rising slowly. The hope is that the increase in demand will be sustained, and that a recovery in output will follow.
THE STRUCTURE AND FUNCTION OF THE LIVER OF TEREDO, THE SHIPWORM
Authors: POTTS F. A. 
Published: January 2008

Summary.(i) The liver of the Teredinidae is shown to consist of three regions, the physiological relations of which have not been fully elucidated:A. A “digestive” region in which the cells are phagocytic and nearly always contain minute fragments of wood. The phagocytic cells are mostly free in the lumen of the liver which also contains enormous quantities of wood. They are probably derived from the epithelium of the liver, which is also often phagocytic, containing wood fragments. Where this is not so the epithelium is ciliated internally.B. In other lobules the liver wall is thickened locally and the lumen contains ciliated cells and cell aggregates, which are colourless, with small granular inclusions, and never contain wood.C. An “excretory” region consisting of cells, also typically ciliated, containing large quantities of highly refringent, resistant granules whose chemical nature is not known but which are probably excretory. The lumen contains similar free cells.(2) Glycogen has not been demonstrated in the liver but occurs in large quantities in the mantle and elsewhere. Fat globules are found in the epithelium of region A.(3) The stomach, coecum and liver lumen contains no other recognisable organic material beside wood and only very occasional diatoms are found in the intestine. The gills of Teredo, though much modified, collect solid particles by ciliary action and forward them to the mouth. When kept in a suspension of Indian ink, the ink is found in the gut and the liver and even in the liver cells. In natural conditions material, which could have been so collected, is not recognised in those situations. Other evidence is given to indicate the shipworm's practical independence of plankton organisms.
ON REMAINS OF EXTINCT PROBOSCIDEA IN THE MUSEUMS OF GEOLOGY AND ZOOLOGY IN THE UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE PART I. ELEPHAS ANTIQUUS.
Authors: COOPER C. FORSTER 
Published: January 2008

Summary.It appears that the Barrington and Haverhill Elephas is somewhat distinct from other forms of antiquus by its higher laminar frequence. As far as is known it was a form with small molar teeth. The fact that there is no great variation in size may be due to the small number of specimens measured but is none the less interesting. The light they throw on the geological level of the beds in which they occur is obscure, but on the whole the period seems to be early rather than late and may be placed provisionally near the top of the Pliocene.The Whittlesea forms appear to be equivalent in their general stage of evolution to those from Clacton, etc. Even in the few specimens discovered there is a wide range of variation in size which would include ausonius at one end and approach the largest and latest forms of antiquus at the other. Certain of them however are not unlike ausonius so that the value of this form as a time mutation appears to be somewhat impaired.
A LEAF INDEX AS A HELP TO THE IDENTIFICATION OF POTATO VARIETIES
Authors: SALAMAN REDCLIFFE N. 
Published: January 2008

Summary.The first lateral leaflet on the left of the mid‐rib of each leaf is measured, and its index breadth/length X 100 calculated.The Leaf Index of a variety must be ascertained from adult leaves on a healthy plant.The younger leaves where the long axis is less than two‐thirds its final length will have a somewhat higher index than the normal.Leaves of secondary growth have, at first, a higher index.Leaves affected with slight mosaic mottling have a reduced index.The variation of the index within any given variety is a normal one and represented by a normal frequency curve.The mean value of the p.e. for one observation when 36 varieties are examined of each of which a minimum of 20 leaves have been measured = 2·36.The p.e. of the difference of two means of 20 each is 74. A difference of two units in the Index may be considered as indicating odds of about 18: 1 against the two varieties being the same, and a difference of 3 units as being almost certain evidence of such distinction, the odds being over 140: 1.Of 65 varieties of which the index was measured, the value of the latter varies between 50 and 72.Neither the place of origin of the seed tubers, nor the locality where the plants are raised have any effect on the Leaf Index, always providing that the plants are healthy.The Leaf Index is a constant for each variety.There is some correlation between early varieties and a low index, and late varieties and a high index.The Leaf Index has given valuable evidence as to the identity of suspected synonymous stocks growing for trial at Ormskirk.
ON CHLOROCRUORIN. I
Authors: FOX H. MUNRO 
Published: January 2008

Summary.1. Chlorocruorin, the red‐green pigment dissolved in the blood of certain polychaetes, exists in an oxidised and a reduced form, which have different absorption spectra. Chlorocruorin is a respiratory pigment in that the oxidised form can be reduced (a) by a vacuum, and (b) by living tissue, and then reoxidised by air.2. Blood of Spirographis, containing chlorocruorin, gives off on the addition of potassium ferricyanide one‐third of the volume of gas given off by my own blood.3. The absorption bands of oxychlorocruorin and reduced chlorocruorin resemble those of oxy‐ and reduced haemoglobin shifted towards the red end of the spectrum.4. The oxychlorocruorin spectrum differs from that of oxyhaemoglobin in the relative heights of the a and β bands and in the presence of a third much smaller band.5. Reduced chlorocruorin resembles the reduced haemoglobin of Arenicola in that the spectrum varies with the reducing agent employed.6. The band of reduced chlorocruorin has a summit with a buttress on either side. Thus it differs from the simple summit of the mammalian and the double apex of the Arenicolan haemoglobin band.7. The spectra of metachlorocruorin and chlorocruorohaematin differ considerably from those of methaemoglobin and haematin.8. Chlorocruorochromogen closely resembles haemochromogen spectroscopic‐ally. The bands of the former are further towards the red than those of the latter, but the shift is less than in the case of oxy‐ and reduced chlorocruorin relative to oxy‐ and reduced haemoglobin.9. The porphyrin prepared from chlorocruorin is either identical with haemato‐porphyrin or very closely resembles the latter.10. Chlorocruoroporphyrin, like haematoporphyrin, has a brilliant red fluorescence.
THE THEORY OF FIELDS OF RESTITUTION, WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO THE PHENOMENA OF SECRETION
Authors: HIRSCH By G. C. 
Published: January 2008

Summary.1. The term restitution is suggested for the repetition of irreversible processes. I have tried to show the biological meaning of this in secretion, regeneration and growth.2. A definition is given of the terms evasion, accumulation, secretion, as three ways of elimination of material from the inside to the outside of protoplasm.3. Reception of material, formation of pre‐secretion, formation and migration of granules are outlined as different processes of restitution during secretion.4. The origin of “basal granules” in topographical connection with mitochondria in the pancreas and the influence of X‐rays on this origin is described; likewise the role of the nucleus and the ergastoplasm in other glands.5. The building up of clear‐cut granules occurs in connection with colloids of the Golgi field.6. During these processes some signs of metabolism in the cell are observed.7. Certain physiological unities responsible for restitution are called fields of restitution.8. The size of these “fields” may be the size of microscopical particles, of cells, or of organs. Some examples of this are given.9. An outline is given of what may be the qualitative differences between the various kinds of “fields.”10. The question is answered as to how often a field of restitution is able to work. Polyphasic and monophasic systems are distinguished. The polyphasic and monophasic working of the different fields is explained in this connection.11. The secretion quotient is in function of time. If this quotient is 1, the working of a field is arhythmical. If the quotient is smaller than 1, the working must be rhythmical. The value of this quotient is given for certain cellular and organ fields.12. Various examples for synchronous and asynchronous action of cells are given.13. Two different causes for synchronous working of secretory cells are demonstrated: an abbreviation of the cycle of processes, and rhythmical mitosis.14. The relation of the “theory of fields of restitution” to growth, regeneration and the theory of “Teilkörper” (Heidenhain) is outlined.15. The influence of X‐rays on different stages of restitution is described and compared with regeneration and growth.16. The question of autonomic and heteronomic factors in the different fields of restitution is considered.
RHAETIC FLORAS
Authors: HARRIS T.M. 
Published: January 2008

Summary1. The Rhaetic Pteridophytes mainly belong to living families.2. Several isolated families of seed plants existed in the Rhaetic. A large proportion of the genera of the Rhaetic seed plants are still incertae sedis.3. The structure of the cuticle of the leaf is held to be an important aid to the classification of Rhaetic seed plants.4. Two zones are distinguishable in the plant‐bearing Rhaetic and Lower Lias of Europe and Greenland—the Thaumatopteris Zone, corresponding approximately to the Hettangian, and the Lepidopteris Zone, corresponding approximately to the Rhaetic.5. No flora outside this area can yet be satisfactorily correlated with the Rhaetic.
THE EFFECT OF GENES ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIZE AND FORM
Authors: SINNOTT E. W. , DUNN L. C. 
Published: January 2008

Summary.1. Genetics has concerned itself almost entirely with an analysis of the hereditary constitution of organisms in terms of genes. For a complete understanding of hereditary differences, however, it is important to determine how genes control the processes of development so that specific characters are produced. Traits of size and form lend themselves most readily to studies of this sort, and in a few instances direct evidence of changes in development brought about by specific genes has been obtained from both animals and plants. This evidence is briefly reviewed.2. The influence of genes in determining size has been clearly demonstrated. Instances are described in which these genes produce their effects by a control of cell size and of cell number, and also, as is perhaps more generally the case, by determining in early stages a developmental schedule in which these two elements of growth are co‐ordinated in a specific fashion.3. The size of parts seems often to be genically determined independently of body size, but in the few cases which have been critically analysed local size differences are found to be due to general effects upon growth occurring at such a stage of development that a particular part is more affected than the rest of the organism.4. Characters of shape and form, either of the body as a whole or of its parts, have been shown in a number of cases to be determined by genes, which evidently operate through a control of the relative rates of growth in specific directions or dimensions.5. The underlying mechanisms by which genic control of the development of size and form is brought about are as yet unknown. In a search for them, however, it is important to recognise two general concepts which developmental genetics has established: (1) Genic balance, or the dependence of a given character upon the interaction of all the genes rather than upon a single one, each gene producing its effect not alone but by virtue of its activity as a part of the whole genic complement. (2) Correlation of growth rates in development, by which the rates of specific processes, known in many cases to be genically controlled, are so interrelated in a definite schedule or pattern that development becomes a unified and orderly process.6. The necessity is pointed out of obtaining a much broader basis of the facts of development in genetically analysed material before generalisations of importance can be made.