bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Croissance et déséquilibres de l'économie mondiale. Une projection CEPII-OFCE à l'horizon 1993
Authors:   Equipe MIMOSA, Pisani-Ferry Jean , Sterdyniak Henri ,   CEPII,   OFCE, Blonde Marie-Hélène , Coudert Virginie , Delessy Henri , Fiole Murielle , Harasty Hélène , Henry Jérôme , Le Dem Jean , Paris-Horvitz Sébastien , Fouet Monique , Dourille Evelyne , Passet Olivier , Riches Véronique , Adda Jacques , Kousnetzoff Nina , Wild Gérard , Criqui Patrick 
Published: October 2008

The article presents the first medium-term projection of the world economy made using MIMOSA, a model built jointly by the CEPII and the OFCE.
After the unexpectedly good performance of the world economy in 1988, a period of slow down could take place in 1989/1990, resulting in part from strong anti-inflationary policies.
Growth in OECD countries would settle at around 3 % a year until 1 993. There would nevertheless be significant differences : growth would be moderate in the United States (2 % a year over the 1988-1993 period), while still vigorous in Japan (4,5 %) ; growth in the EEC would be one point higher than it was between 1979 and 1987, but still disappointing (2,7 %). After a period of lower growth rates than its Européen partners (1983-1987), France would reach the 2,6 % EEC average. The situation would be more propitious for developing countries in Latin America and Africa, which would gradually begin growing again, while Asia as a whole would see particularly strong growth. Inflation would remain under control : it would be weak in Japan, West Germany and France (respectively 1,4, 1,1 and 2,5 % in 1993). It would be significatly higher in the United States (5,4 %).
Oil prices would stabilise in real terms before increasing slowly at the beginning of 1 990. In spite of the dollar's nominal depreciation, (1 ,5 mark and 95 yen) and of the slow down of American growth, imbalances would remain : the United States current account deficit would reach 3,2 % of GNP by the end of the period, while Japaneese and German surpluses would persist.
Finally, disparities in Europe would gradually worsen. Whereas the unemployment rate would remain at a high level in France and Italy (1 1 %), it would decrease steadily in Germany, to reach 5,3 % in 1993, while remaining below its 1987 level in the United Kingdom. Meanwhile, large gaps would remain as far as public accounts are concerned, French discipline contrasting with a persistant deficit in Italy, and the external debt of the United Kingdom would grow. Even though a low inflation rate could be maintained (except for Italy), the objective of macroeconomic convergence within the EEC would still be far from being achieved in 1993.
Pétrole : le retour aux sources
Authors: Adda Jacques 
Published: October 2008

Three and a half years after the beginning of the oil counter-shock, the new strategy of increasing market shares launched by the Gulf Arab countries seems to be on the road to success. Beyond the sharp increase of prices that occured during the first half of the year, the most noteworthy phenomenon of the present period is the clear upsurge of world oil consumption and the accompanying progressive transformation of market equilibrium conditions.
This article sums these events up and suggests an interpretation of short-term price fluctuations based on the evaluation of a market desequilibrium indicator. A projection is then made up to the year 1993. No new oil shock is to be expected during this period, provided no major political event erupts in the Gulf region. Nevertheless, the regular increase of oil demand directed towards OPEC countries is likely to provoke a progressive recovery of prices in real terms, under the vigilant supervision of Saoudi Arabia. In nominal terms, North Sea oil price could reach 25 dollars in 1993.
Retraites et évolutions démographiques en France. Première partie : Le long terme
Authors: Cazes Sandrine , Chauveau Thierry , Le Cacheux Jacques , Loufir Rahim 
Published: October 2008

Face au vieillissement probable de la population française au cours des prochaines décennies, les perspectives de financement de l'actuel régime public de retraite par répartition sont relativement sombres. Si la tendance à la stagnation de la population française se confirme, des choix devront être faits entre le maintien du système actuel, qui implique une augmentation — à terme assez substantielle — des taux de cotisations, et une modification de ses règles.
Cet article propose un cadre d'évaluation des conséquences économiques à long terme de différents scénarios : il s'agit d'un modèle d'équilibre général calculable à générations imbriquées de l'économie française, qui, à partir d'hypothèses sur les préférences des ménages et sur l'environnement économique et institutionnel dans lequel ils prennent leurs décisions, permet de déterminer leurs comportements individuels d'offre de travail, de dépenses de consommation, d'épargne et d'accumulation au cours de leur cycle de vie. Les principales grandeurs macroéconomiques sont alors déduites par agrégation exacte des comportements individuels. Grâce à la détermination endogène de l'ensemble des décisions des ménages et des entreprises, un tel modèle permet de tenir compte des conséquences sur les choix d'activité, de consommation et d'épargne, de modifications institutionnelles telles que des réformes du régime de retraite.
Après avoir présenté les résultats de quelques variantes démographiques, qui confirment que le système actuel ne serait véritablement viable à long terme que si la croissance de la population était positive, nous analysons les effets micro- et macroéconomiques de long terme de diverses options envisageables en matière de retraite. Tant la comparaison des conséquences macroéconomiques que l'analyse en termes de bien-être — individuel et social — nous incitent à conclure que, parmi les mesures étudiées et à supposer que la stagnation de la population française se confirme, le recul de l'âge légal de départ à la retraite apparaît comme nettement plus favorable que des alternatives telles que la réduction des prestations ou l'instauration d'un système pur de capitalisation.
Mosaïque : la nouvelle version du modèle OFCE trimestriel
Authors: Gubian Alain , Cornilleau Gérard , Mathieu Catherine , Veganzones Marie-Ange 
Published: October 2008

Le modèle Mosaïque (MOdèle pour la Simulation, l'Analyse et l'Interprétation QUantitative de l'Economie) est la nouvelle version du modèle macroéconométrique trimestriel de l'économie française de l'OFCE. Il est utilisé à la fois pour la prévision, notamment de court terme, et l'étude des politiques économiques.
D'inspiration néokeynésienne, ce modèle distingue sept branches (agriculture et IAA, énergie, industrie manufacturière, BTP, commerces, services marchands et secteur non marchand) et cinq agents.
La désagrégation retenue, y compris pour les opérations de répartition, permet une analyse précise de nombreuses mesures de politique économique et des chocs extérieurs. La description du chômage tient compte des différentes composantes de la politique de l'emploi. Par ailleurs l'investissement du secteur industriel, décrit par un modèle de déséquilibre, prend en compte simultanément les contraintes de débouchés et de profitabilité.
Cet article présente la logique et les principales relations du modèle ainsi que les résultats de plusieurs variantes de base (hausse des dépenses publiques, baisse de la fiscalité, chocs externes, hausse des taux d'intérêt...).
Economie mondiale : la croissance difficile
Authors:   Equipe MIMOSA, Delessy Henri , Sterdyniak Henri , Chauffour Jean-Pierre , Fiole Murielle , Fourmann Emmanuel , Harasty Hélène , Langin Hélène , Lerais Frédéric , Paris-Horvitz Sébastien 
Published: October 2008

The article presents a medium-term projection of the world economy carried out with MIMOSA, a model jointly built and teamed by CEPII and OFCE.
The 1991-1992 period represents a break after the 80' s sharp growth impulsed by the oil counter-shock. The slow-down, which took place first in the United-States and the United-Kingdom, reached Continental Europe a year later, and is now effective in Japan. In the 1992-1993 period, the recovery will be soft : OECD growth will raise from 0,9 % in 1991 to 1,7% in 1992, and will reach 2,9% in 1993. In the United-States, the lack of fiscal support will limit the recovery, and the stimulating monetary policy will only have a small impact on consumption : households would reduce their debt burden rather than increase their consumption expenditures. Growth will reach 1,9 % in 1992 and 2,7 % in 1993. As direct effects of the German Unification will be over, measures to finance the former East Germany rebuilding and a restrictive monetary policy will keep on slowing German growth and hence the European one in 1992 and 1993. European growth will reach 1,6 % in 1992 and 29 in 1993. Inflation rates will be rather moderate in EEC countries except for the German one because of persistent wages pressures. The inflation rate will settle down to about 3 % in France whereas inflation rate will reach 4,5 % in 1992 and 4,1 % in 1993 in West Germany. There will be no major inflationary pressure in the United-States. In the middle run growth will lack driving forces The average annual growth rate will be 2,7 % for OECD countries from 1992 to 1997, of which 3,4 % in Japan 2,7 % in EEC and 2,5 % in the United-States, growth will cope with supply constraints in the United-States, Japan and Germany whereas in countries where unemployment is high (such as France, Italy and the United-Kindgom) economic policies will remain under the constraint of reaching external balance and/or public finance targets.
Investissement, profitabilité et croissance dans les années quatre-vingt
Authors: Muet Pierre-Alain , Veganzones Marie-Ange 
Published: October 2008

This paper studies out the traditional explanatory factors of investment, then presents the contribution of a model which takes into account profitability and demand constraints simultaneously. If demand fluctuations are sufficient to explain the fall of investment rate in the first half of the eighties, a stronger growth of demand would not have allowed an investment recovery during this period, due to the deterioration of enterprises financial situation. This recovery was possible in the second half of the eighties because the two conditions — increase of demand and high profitability — were combined.
In the first half of the eighties, slow growth, low profitability and high interest rates led enterprises to increase labor productivity through capital replacement rather than to extend production capacities. This could explain the unusual increase of capital intensity in a period of high capital cost, as well as the fact that interest rate do not appear as an heavy constraint for global investment in the econometric estimates.
Éléments pour une nouvelle politique agricole
Authors: Le Cacheux Jacques , Mendras Henri 
Published: October 2008

Elements of a new Agricultural Policy
Jacques Le Cacheux et Henri Mendras
The European common agricultural policy (CAP) had initially been conceived as a device to ensure the expansion of agricultural production thanks to the modernization of techniques and the intensification of agriculture. It had however tended to degenerate into a system of management of agricultural decline. From the point of view of the European objective of self-sufficiency and in terms of export performance, especially for France, this policy may be said to have been a success, as may be ascertained by the various economic indicators availabe. But in spite of direct subsidies and an increasingly costly price support mechanism for basic foodstuffs, the French agricultural population has continued to shrink at an annual rate of 2 to 3 % ; average incomes have been more or less maintained, but only thanks to the declining number of farmers ; and disequilibria have persisted, insofar as this tendency has not led to the disappearance of excess supplies, notably for milk and cereals. Hence, up until the recent reform, the CAP was essentially feeding the disequilibria that have been killing the profession.
The new CAP only attempts to remedy the persistant tendency to excess supply by curbing the incentives to produce. It is therefore perceived by farmers as a device meant to accelerate their disappearance or, through direct income support, to « preserve the species », in the same way as has been done elsewhere for native Americans or even threatened animal species.
How to design a genuine agricultural policy that would be viable in the long run remains an open issue : although it offers a number of promising directions, the present paper is no more than an invitation to reflect on such an alternative policy.
L'efficience et la formation des anticipations sur le marché des changes
Authors: Loufir Rahim , Bruno Catherine , Jacquinot Pascal 
Published: October 2008

Efficiency and Formation of Expectations in Exchange Markets
The aim of this article is twofold : first to analyse the efficiency properties of the French franc and the American dollar exchange markets : second, to determine the nature of exchange rate expectations in these markets for monthly and quarterly horizons over the period 1980- 1990.
The efficiency test — based on the joint hypothesis of no risk and no bias — takes into account the possible non stationarity of the time series and the possible interaction between currencies — the French franc, American dollar, British pound, Japanese yen, Deutsche mark and the Italian lira. We conclude that only the franc- dollar and the mark- franc exchange markets are efficient over this period.
The rejection of efficiency in other markets leads us to examine three processes of expectations formation : adaptive, extrapolative and regressive. Actually, the heterogeneity of expectations according to the horizon is a possible explanation of inefficiency. More generally, the determination of the nature of these expectations allows us to understand the evolution of the expected exchange rate.
In continuous time modelling where we notably avoid an arbitrary expression of unobservable variables such asthe exchange target, we conclude that exchange rate expectations of the dollar, the pound, and the yen vis-à-vis the franc, and the mark vis-à-vis the dollar are regressive for both horizons — monthly and quarterly. Since the nature of these expectations is homogenous, it cannot be an explanation of the inefficiency of the corresponding exchange markets.
Les enjeux de l'Europe
Authors: Fitoussi Jean-Paul , Muet Pierre-Alain 
Published: October 2008

The Stakes of European Integration
By eliminating exchange rate uncertainty and achieving a unified European market, the single currency is an important step in the transition from the nation states of the nineteenth century to continental states. But along the steep path which leads to the common currency, the constraints become more acute and reduce the already narrow margins for national policies. The turbulent events which recently disturbed the EMS suggest that Europe is ahead in rhetoric but behind in action: words — concerted policies, economic and monetary union, coordination, solidarity — and facts — financing the reunification, determining interest rates — are diverging. To avoid the problem that one country's growth is achieved to the detriment of another's, a nominal anchor should be found: first, the EMS should be reconstructed, and then the exchange rate between the major currencies — the ECU, the dollar and the yen — should be controlled, so that a logic of growth may substitute for a logic of market shares.
L'Union monétaire européenne : une revue de la littérature théorique
Authors: Brociner Andrew 
Published: October 2008

European Monetary Union: A Survey
This survey considers the broad themes of European Monetary Union: optimal currency areas; a European Central Bank (ECB); and European fiscal policy. Each of these themes is the subject of controversy in the political arena as well as in the theoretical literature. The paper considers different criteria and empirical evidence which compare Europe to existing optimal currency areas. Europe qualifies on some but not all criteria. Another issue is the creation of the ECB. The gain in terms of credibility is not as transparent as for the EMS, because of the proposed structure of the ECB and of the relationship between the monetary and fiscal authorities. Finally, the issue of fiscal policy in Europe is examined. Different arguments both for and againstthe coordination of fiscal policy in Europe are presented, and the subject of fiscal federalism is discussed. Given the issues of national sovereignty and the size of the Community budget, it would be better to operate a reduced federal fiscal system, which would permit individual countries greater autonomy to offset asymmetric shocks.
La politique industrielle communautaire
Authors: Combe Emmanuel , Fayolle Jacky , Milewski Françoise 
Published: October 2008

The European Industrial Policy
Europe's industrial policy first appeared as a sectorial one when the European Coal and Steel Community was put in place. This highly interventionist institution proved efficient in managing the « life-cycle » of the coal and steel industries. It very quickly met with some difficulties when trying to enlarge its scope. Some of its creators relied upon the implementation of the competition's rules defined in the Rome Treaty and more generally of the Common Market. They thought those would prove enough of an incentive for european businessmen to strive towards the appropriate scale and level of productivity. However, requests for more interventionism appeared inside some of the Community's institutions during the 70's. Results were limited because few means were attached to these goals while each country tended to push its national champions forwards. Space and aircraft were two brilliant exceptions to that rule; it should be noted though that a european interest had actually been recognised but that the Community took little responsibility in the action. During the early 80"s the Community's industrial action was further weakened as the anti-interventionist mood gained strength. Competition was enhanced, industrial policy reduced; State aids were closely watched, and industrial concentration opposed.
In the early 90's a new equilibrium is sought, as can be seen in the 1990 White Paper on industrial policy and in the Maastricht Treaty. The latter, without actually calling for a Community's industrial policy, opens new fields for industrial action. The basis for such an action is still unclear. In strategic sectors, national policies have already evolved towards more flexibility and decentralisation. Efforts are repeatedly being made to avoid two dangers: an inexistent industrial policy, the duplication on the Community's scale of national interventionism. One original way to get out of this dilemna is to mix policies dealing with technolgy and competition; but it is obviously unable to solve all the problems met by firms in a global world. Progress should be made in the definition of an effective policy of industrial cooperation. Financial and legal tools should be used to modify the relationships between public and private economic actors engaged in ambitious projects. Theoretical basis for such policies are beginning to appear; they focus upon the immediate needs of competition and its long-term dynamics. Such theories help in defining the goals towards which public intervention should tend and the tools it could use, bearing in mind that each specific sector calls for a specific combination of objectives and means.
L'avenir des régimes publics de retraite dans les pays du G7
Authors: Chauveau Thierry , Loufir Rahim 
Published: October 2008

The future of public pensions in the seven major economies
Thierry Chauveau, Rahim Loufir
In most OECD countries, the financing of the current public Pay-As-You-Go (PAYG) pension system may become quite worrisome due to the likely ageing of the population. This article provides an analysis of the consequences of the demographie transition on the equilibrium of the public pensions systems in the seven major economies. A new CGEM-OG model is used, which rules out the well known weakness of earlier models : the simulated age structure (and total population) do not coincide with the actual ones. For each of the seven countries, main macroeconomic aggregates, intergenerational transfers, and welfare criteria are analysed. Our conclusions are somewhat different from those based on other methodologies such standard CGEM-OG or econometric or generational accounting models. The main conclusions are that (i) Ageing of the population is a problem very similar from one developed country to another ; (ii) This problem is not so much worrying as is sometimes suggested and policies in which PAYG financing is maintained and the retirement age held constant are allowable ; (iii) There is no « one best social security policy » ; (iv) On the contrary, there is a trade-off between, on the one hand, lowering interest rates, increasing investment and output, lowering taxes,... and, on the other hand, increasing the standard of living of the retired, and (v) Most of these results still hold with the polar assumption of small open economies. Nevertheless, for countries in which the domestic real rate of interest is higher than the American one, opening the economy leads to better macroeconomic outeomes and higher actuarial fairness. It is the case for France and the United Kingdom ; the opposite situation characterizes Japan.
Chronique des tendances de la société française
Authors: Dirn Louis , Chauvel Louis , Forsé Michel , Mendras Henri , Mucchielli Laurent 
Published: October 2008

La réflexion sur l'évolution de la structure de la société française a été au centre de la campagne présidentielle. La contestation des élites et l'importance accordée par les médias à la pauvreté relèvent de la même inquiétude : la société française est-elle en train de se fracturer ? Les sociologues se sont peu exprimés sur cette question, pourtant centrale dans leur discipline, parce que les schémas d'analyse traditionnels sont remis en question et qu'ils tâtonnent à la recherche de nouveaux modèles. Dans de précédentes chroniques nous avons présenté des analyses de la répartition des revenus ; ici on trouvera trois points de vue complémentaires :
• L'analyse des diplômes et des revenus moyens par catégorie socioprofessionnelle incite à penser qu'une fracture est en passe d'éloigner les catégories supérieures des autres catégories au sein desquelles il est difficile de différencier ouvriers, employés et professions intermédiaires.
• L'évolution quantitative des catégories professionnelles dans la dernière période intercensitaire montre que ce sont les catégories supérieures qui sont en croissance la plus rapide, alors que dans les années soixante les professions intermédiaires croissaient le plus vite : à la << moyennisation » succéderait une « élitisation ».
• Si la position professionnelle est moins déterminante que par le passé pour fixer la position sociale d'un individu et si le genre de vie devient plus déterminant, les pratiques culturelles doivent être scrutées avec soin. Les statistiques sur les pratiques culturelles dont nous disposons montrent une remarquable stabilité du clivage entre public « cultivé » et public « populaire » malgré la scolarisation massive et l'omniprésence de la télévision^ comme s 'il existait deux écoles et deux télévisions. Ces trois angles de vue induisent à conclure que la structure sociale française subit une nouvelle mutation qui conduirait à une opposition entre les catégories supérieures (15 % de la population) et l'ensemble de la nation au sein de laquelle les différences et les inégalités sont nettement moins marquées. Enfin une comparaison de la criminalité dans les différents pays européens confirme que l'urbanisation et l'enrichissement sont les facteurs qui influencent le plus l'augmentation de la criminalité et que la France se situe dans la moyenne entre l'Angleterre, l'Allemagne et la Scandinavie d'une part et les pays méditerranéens d'autre part.