bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
The Spatial Variability of Moisture in the Boundary Layer and Its Effect on Convection Initiation: Project-Long Characterization
Authors: Fabry Frédéric 
Published: February 2006

Abstract
An attempt was made to statistically gauge the importance of moisture variability on convection initiation by analyzing data collected by radar, surface stations, soundings, and airborne in situ sensors over the 7 weeks of the International H2O Project (IHOP_2002). Based on radar refractivity data, the spatial structure of humidity near the surface proved to be very anisotropic, crosswind variability being typically twice as large as along-wind variability, in part as a result of the west-to-east climatological gradient in moisture across the Oklahoma panhandle. Variability in humidity was largest from the afternoon to sunset and smallest a few hours before and after sunrise. At the surface, variograms of refractivity increase almost linearly with scale in the crosswind direction, suggesting that the field of moisture shows little in terms of local maxima and minima. Higher in the boundary layer, moisture variability increases at small scales because of the entrainment of dry capping stable layer air as the daytime boundary layer grows, and the rate of that dry-air entrainment could be used to calculate surface moisture variability.
The effect of the observed variability in moisture and temperature in the upper boundary layer on convective inhibition was quantified and contrasted with the effect expected from boundary layer updrafts. At synoptic scales and at the upper end of the mesoscale, the location of convection initiation is most sensitive to the variability in temperature. At smaller scales, storm development becomes extremely sensitive to the strength of updrafts; however, those same updrafts also magnify the effect of moisture and temperature variability, as a result of which the effect of small-scale moisture variability cannot be ignored. Some of the consequences of these findings on the representativeness of radiosonde measurements in the boundary layer and instrumentation needs for convection initiation forecasting are surveyed.
Finescale Vertical Structure of a Cold Front as Revealed by an Airborne Doppler Radar
Authors: Geerts Bart , Damiani Rick , Haimov Samuel 
Published: February 2006

Abstract
In the afternoon of 24 May 2002, a well-defined and frontogenetic cold front moved through the Texas panhandle. Detailed observations from a series of platforms were collected near the triple point between this cold front and a dryline boundary.
This paper primarily uses reflectivity and Doppler velocity data from an airborne 95-GHz radar, as well as flight-level thermodynamic data, to describe the vertical structure of the cold front as it intersected with the dryline. The prefrontal convective boundary layer was weakly capped, weakly sheared, and about 2.5 times deeper than the cold-frontal density current.
The radar data depict the cold front as a fine example of an atmospheric density current at unprecedented detail (∼40 m). The echo structure and dual-Doppler-inferred airflow in the vertical plane reveal typical features such as a nose, a head, a rear-inflow current, and a broad current of rising prefrontal air that feeds the accelerating front-to-rear current over the head. The 2D cross-frontal structure, including the frontal slope, is highly variable in time or alongfront distance. Along this slope horizontal vorticity, averaging ∼0.05 s−1, is generated baroclinically, and the associated strong cross-front shear triggers Kelvin–Helmholtz (KH) billows at the density interface. Some KH billows occupy much of the depth of the density current, possibly even temporarily cutting off the head from its trailing body.
Effect of Land–Atmosphere Interactions on the IHOP 24–25 May 2002 Convection Case
Authors: Holt Teddy R. , Niyogi Dev , Chen Fei , Manning Kevin , LeMone Margaret A. , Qureshi Aneela 
Published: February 2006

Abstract
Numerical simulations are conducted using the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) to investigate the impact of land–vegetation processes on the prediction of mesoscale convection observed on 24–25 May 2002 during the International H2O Project (IHOP_2002). The control COAMPS configuration uses the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version of the Noah land surface model (LSM) initialized using a high-resolution land surface data assimilation system (HRLDAS). Physically consistent surface fields are ensured by an 18-month spinup time for HRLDAS, and physically consistent mesoscale fields are ensured by a 2-day data assimilation spinup for COAMPS. Sensitivity simulations are performed to assess the impact of land–vegetative processes by 1) replacing the Noah LSM with a simple slab soil model (SLAB), 2) adding a photosynthesis, canopy resistance/transpiration scheme [the gas exchange/photosynthesis-based evapotranspiration model (GEM)] to the Noah LSM, and 3) replacing the HRLDAS soil moisture with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) 40-km Eta Data Assimilation (EDAS) operational soil fields.
CONTROL, EDAS, and GEM develop convection along the dryline and frontal boundaries 2–3 h after observed, with synoptic-scale forcing determining the location and timing. SLAB convection along the boundaries is further delayed, indicating that detailed surface parameterization is necessary for a realistic model forecast. EDAS soils are generally drier and warmer than HRLDAS, resulting in more extensive development of convection along the dryline than for CONTROL. The inclusion of photosynthesis-based evapotranspiration (GEM) improves predictive skill for both air temperature and moisture. Biases in soil moisture and temperature (as well as air temperature and moisture during the prefrontal period) are larger for EDAS than HRLDAS, indicating land–vegetative processes in EDAS are forced by anomalously warmer and drier conditions than observed. Of the four simulations, the errors in SLAB predictions of these quantities are generally the largest.
By adding a sophisticated transpiration model, the atmospheric model is able to better respond to the more detailed representation of soil moisture and temperature. The sensitivity of the synoptically forced convection to soil and vegetative processes including transpiration indicates that detailed representation of land surface processes should be included in weather forecasting models, particularly for severe storm forecasting where local-scale information is important.
Mobile Integrated Profiler System (MIPS) Observations of Low-Level Convergent Boundaries during IHOP
Authors: Karan Haldun , Knupp Kevin 
Published: February 2006

Abstract
Characteristics of convergent boundary zones (CBZs) sampled by the Mobile Integrated Profiling System (MIPS) during the 2002 International H2O Project (IHOP_2002) are presented. The MIPS sensors (915-MHz wind profiler, 12-channel microwave profiling radiometer, ceilometer, and surface instrumentation) provide very fine temporal kinematic and thermodynamic profiles of the atmospheric boundary layer and CBZ properties, including enhanced 915-MHz backscatter within the CBZ updraft (equivalent to the radar fine line), a general increase in integrated water vapor within the updrafts of the CBZ, an increase in the convective boundary layer (CBL) depth, and changes in ceilometer backscatter that are typically coincident with arrival of cooler, moister air (the case for density current CBZ).
Three contrasting CBZs are analyzed. Convective initiation was associated with a slow-moving dryline as it passed over the MIPS on 19 June. Updrafts up to 6 m s−1 were measured, and the CBL attained its greatest depth within the CBZ. The CBZ in the other two cases were quite similar to density currents. The retrograding dryline of 18 June produced an enhancement in preexisting convection within 30 km of the MIPS. On 24 May, a shallow cold front, about 800 m deep, was sampled.
Observations of Convection Initiation “Failure” from the 12 June 2002 IHOP Deployment
Authors: Markowski Paul , Hannon Christina , Rasmussen Erik 
Published: February 2006

Abstract
Observations of the development of cumulus convection, which reached depths of several kilometers but failed to develop into sustained, precipitating, cumulonimbus clouds—an event the authors term “convection initiation failure”—are presented from the 12 June 2002 International H2O Project (IHOP) case. The investigation relies heavily on remote and in situ data obtained by mobile, truck-borne Doppler radars, mobile mesonets, mobile soundings, and stereo cloud photogrammetry.
Data collection was focused in northwestern Oklahoma near the intersection of an outflow boundary and dryline. Thunderstorms developed along the dryline during the late afternoon approximately 40 km east of the domain intensively observed by the ground-based observing systems. Farther west, within the region of dense observations analyzed herein, cumulus congestus clouds formed along an outflow boundary. Multiple-Doppler wind syntheses revealed that the boundary layer vertical velocity field was dominated by thermals rather than by circulations associated with the mesoscale boundaries. In spite of this observation, deep cumulus cloud development was confined to the mesoscale boundaries. Trajectories into the deep cumulus clouds that developed along the outflow boundary were much more vertical than those entering the shallow cumulus clouds observed away from the outflow boundary. It is hypothesized that the role of the outflow boundary in promoting deep cumulus cloud formation was to promote updrafts that were less susceptible to the dilution of equivalent potential temperature, which controls the potential buoyancy, vertical velocity, and depth that can be realized by the clouds. It is also hypothesized that the lack of a persistent, spatially continuous corridor of mesoscale ascent along the outflow boundary and associated moisture upwelling contributed to convection initiation failure along the outflow boundary.
Multiple-Doppler Radar Observations of the Evolution of Vorticity Extrema in a Convective Boundary Layer
Authors: Markowski Paul , Hannon Christina 
Published: February 2006

Abstract
Overdetermined, dual-Doppler wind syntheses are used to document the evolution, structure, and dynamics of vertical vorticity extrema observed in a convective boundary layer during the 12 June 2002 International H2O Project (IHOP) mission. Discrete vertical vorticity extrema having horizontal scales of 1–2 km can be observed continuously for periods exceeding an hour. The evolution of the vorticity field is characterized by complex interactions among vorticity extrema and between the vertical vorticity and vertical velocity fields. The most prominent vorticity maxima have amplitudes of approximately 0.01 s−1 and are associated with retrieved pressure deficits of order 0.1 mb. The vorticity extrema weaken with height and tilt in the presence of vertical wind shear. Advection and propagation both contribute substantially to the motion of the vorticity extrema.
Amplifications of vertical vorticity are closely linked to the intensification of updrafts. Both stretching and tilting can contribute significantly to the vorticity budgets of the air parcels comprising the vorticity extrema, and their relative importance varies with elevation, evolutionary stage, and from one vorticity extremum to another. It is therefore difficult to generalize about the dynamics of the vorticity extrema. It also is difficult to generalize about the helicity of the vorticity maxima and suppression of mixing for similar reasons. The weakening of vertical vorticity extrema is closely tied to the weakening of updrafts. In some cases, downward-directed vertical pressure gradient forces due to vertical gradients of rotation bring about updraft weakening and vorticity demise. An improved understanding of the nature of boundary layer vortices could have large relevance to convection initiation owing to feedbacks between vertical velocity and vorticity.
Sensitivity Analysis of Convection of the 24 May 2002 IHOP Case Using Very Large Ensembles
Authors: Martin William J. , Xue Ming 
Published: February 2006

Abstract
This paper introduces the use of very large ensembles for detailed sensitivity analysis and applies this technique to study the sensitivity of model forecast rainfall to initial boundary layer and soil moisture fields for a particular case from the International H2O Project (IHOP_2002) field program. In total, an aggregate ensemble of over 12 000 mesoscale model forecasts are made, with each forecast having different perturbations of boundary layer moisture, boundary layer wind, or soil moisture. Sensitivity fields are constructed from this ensemble, producing detailed sensitivity fields of defined forecast functions to initial perturbations. This work is based on mesoscale model forecasts of convection of the 24 May 2002 IHOP case, which saw convective initiation along a dryline in western Texas as well as precipitation along a cold front. The large ensemble technique proves to be highly sensitive, and both significant and subtle connections between model state variables are revealed. A number of interesting sensitivity results are obtained. It is found that soil moisture and ABL moisture have opposite effects on the amount of precipitation along the dryline; that moisture on both the dry and moist sides of the dryline was equally important; and that some small perturbations were alone responsible for entire convective storm cells near the cold front, a result implying a high level of nonlinearity. These sensitivity analyses strongly indicate the importance of accurate low-level water vapor characterization for quantitative precipitation forecasting.
Forecasting Convective Initiation by Monitoring the Evolution of Moving Cumulus in Daytime GOES Imagery
Authors: Mecikalski John R. , Bedka Kristopher M. 
Published: February 2006

Abstract
This study identifies the precursor signals of convective initiation within sequences of 1-km-resolution visible (VIS) and 4–8-km infrared (IR) imagery from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) instrument. Convective initiation (CI) is defined for this study as the first detection of Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) reflectivities ≥35 dBZ produced by convective clouds. Results indicate that CI may be forecasted ∼30–45 min in advance through the monitoring of key IR fields for convective clouds. This is made possible by the coincident use of three components of GOES data: 1) a cumulus cloud “mask” at 1-km resolution using VIS and IR data, 2) satellite-derived atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) for tracking individual cumulus clouds, and 3) IR brightness temperature (TB) and multispectral band-differencing time trends. In effect, these techniques isolate only the cumulus convection in satellite imagery, track moving cumulus convection, and evaluate various IR cloud properties in time. Convective initiation is predicted by accumulating information within a satellite pixel that is attributed to the first occurrence of a ≥35 dBZ radar echo. Through the incorporation of satellite tracking of moving cumulus clouds, this work represents a significant advance in the use of routinely available GOES data for monitoring aspects of cumulus clouds important for nowcasting CI (0–1-h forecasts). Once cumulus cloud tracking is established, eight predictor fields based on Lagrangian trends in IR data are used to characterize cloud conditions consistent with CI. Cumulus cloud pixels for which ≥7 of the 8 CI indicators are satisfied are labeled as having high CI potential, assuming an extrapolation of past trends into the future. Comparison to future WSR-88D imagery then measures the method's predictive skill. Convective initiation predictability is demonstrated using several convective events—one during IHOP_2002—that occur over a variety of synoptic and mesoscale forcing regimes.
Dryline on 19 June 2002 during IHOP. Part I: Airborne Doppler and LEANDRE II Analyses of the Thin Line Structure and Convection Initiation
Authors: Murphey Hanne V. , Wakimoto Roger M. , Flamant Cyrille , Kingsmill David E. 
Published: February 2006

Abstract
The evolution and finescale structure of a dryline that initiated a line of thunderstorms is presented. Both the along-line variability and mean vertical structure were examined using data collected by an airborne Doppler radar and a water vapor differential absorption lidar (DIAL). The initiation of convection appeared to result from the diurnally induced easterly flow in the maritime air east of the dryline that typically develops late in the day. This flow increased the low-level convergence and allowed rising parcels of air to reach the level of free convection. The along-line variability was largely attributed to numerous misocyclones distorting the thin line of radar reflectivity by advecting dry (moist) air across the dryline south (north) of the misocyclone. The misocyclones also influenced the location of the updrafts, with most of the peak values positioned north of the circulations. As a result, these updrafts were fortuitously positioned in regions of high mixing ratio where the first convective cells initiated.
Simulation of Convective Initiation during IHOP_2002 Using the Flux-Adjusting Surface Data Assimilation System (FASDAS)
Authors: Childs Peter P. , Qureshi Aneela L. , Raman Sethu , Alapaty Kiran , Ellis Robb , Boyles Ryan , Niyogi Dev 
Published: February 2006

Abstract
The Flux-Adjusting Surface Data Assimilation System (FASDAS) uses the surface observational analysis to directly assimilate surface layer temperature and water vapor mixing ratio and to indirectly assimilate soil moisture and soil temperature in numerical model predictions. Both soil moisture and soil temperature are important variables in the development of deep convection. In this study, FASDAS coupled within the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) was used to study convective initiation over the International H2O Project (IHOP_2002) region, utilizing the analyzed surface observations collected during IHOP_2002. Two 72-h numerical simulations were performed. A control simulation was run that assimilated all available IHOP_2002 measurements into the standard MM5 four-dimensional data assimilation. An experimental simulation was also performed that assimilated all available IHOP_2002 measurements into the FASDAS version of the MM5, where surface observations were used for the FASDAS coupling. Results from this case study suggest that the use of FASDAS in the experimental simulation led to the generation of greater amounts of precipitation over a more widespread area as compared to the standard MM5 FDDA used in the control simulation. This improved performance is attributed to better simulation of surface heat fluxes and their gradients.
Relationship between a Weakening Cold Front, Misocyclones, and Cloud Development on 10 June 2002 during IHOP
Authors: Arnott Nettie R. , Richardson Yvette P. , Wurman Joshua M. , Rasmussen Erik M. 
Published: February 2006

Abstract
The finescale structure and evolution of a cold front in the presence of small-scale circulations are examined using overdetermined dual-Doppler syntheses of mobile radar data along with thermodynamic data and cloud imagery collected on 10 June 2002 during the International H2O Project (IHOP). Linear clear-air reflectivity maxima and open cellular convection intersect the cold front, causing spatial variations in convergence along the front. Small-scale vertical vorticity maxima (misocyclones) often are coincident with these intersections and are associated with vertical velocity maxima.
Throughout the deployment, trajectory analyses indicate that parcels entering the frontal circulation travel predominately in the along-front direction. During the first hour of the deployment, upward motion is nearly continuous along the front. Consequently, parcels remain in regions of upward motion as they move along the front, and many eventually ascend to cloud base. In response, a line of cumulus clouds develops along the front.
Later in the deployment, however, enhanced warming behind the cold front causes the frontal circulation to weaken. Small-scale features such as misocyclones play a larger role in organizing upward motion along the front than when the front was stronger. Misocyclones contort the weakened cold front and are associated with kinks in radar reflectivity and fractures in upward motion. Parcels moving along the front now experience regions of both upward and downward forcing due to this fracturing. Hence, many of these parcels do not retain upward motion long enough to reach cloud base, and clouds along the cold front dissipate in the dry air above the boundary layer. Parcels that remain coincident with upward motion maxima, such as those maxima associated with misocyclones, however, often still reach the top of the radar domain and presumably cloud base.
The “Triple Point” on 24 May 2002 during IHOP. Part I: Airborne Doppler and LASE Analyses of the Frontal Boundaries and Convection Initiation
Authors: Wakimoto Roger M. , Murphey Hanne V. , Browell Edward V. , Ismail Syed 
Published: February 2006

Abstract
An analysis of the initiation of deep convection near the triple point between a cold front and dryline is presented. High-spatial-resolution Doppler wind syntheses combined with vertical cross sections of mixing ratio (q) and aerosol scattering ratio retrieved from a lidar flying over the triple point provide an unprecedented view of the initiation process. The Doppler wind synthesis revealed variability along the dryline similar to the precipitation core/gap structure documented for oceanic cold fronts. Vertical cross sections through the dryline suggest a density current–like structure with the hot and dry air being forced up and over the moist air. Double thin lines associated with moisture gradients were also resolved. The vertical profile of retrieved q, approximately perpendicular to the dryline, showed a pronounced jump in the depth of the moisture layer across the triple point. Analyses of dropsonde data show the existence of virtual potential temperature (θV) gradients across the cold front and the dryline. Although the vertical velocity was strong at the triple point, deep convection initiated ∼50 km to the east. The location where convection first developed was characterized by a prominent aerosol and moisture plume, reduced static stability, and the largest potential instability. An internal gravity wave may have provided the lift to initiate convection.