bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
The stable births resulting from a time dependent change between two net maternity functions
Authors: Cerone P. , Keane A. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The asymptotic birth rate for a one-sex population in which the net maternity function changes to one of bare replacement was first discussed by Keyfitz and has since been studied by several authors. The present generalization allows for a time dependent transition from any net maternity function to another and, thus, includes all previous models.
Recent urbanization trends in peninsular Malaysia
Authors: Hirschman Charles 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The pace of urbanization in Peninsular Malaysia was slower in the most recent intercensal interval, 1957 to 1970, than in the previous period, 1947 to 1957, Most of the small change in the rural-urban balance from 1957 to 1970 appears due to the growth of towns into the urban classification rather than to a redistribution of population into the previous urban settlements. A number of towns in Peninsular Malaysia do show exceptional growth from 1957 to 1970, but there seems to be no clear relationship between a city’s size and its subsequent growth. The rural areas on the outskirts of the largest cities do show rapid growth, especially the periphery of the capital city. It appears that neither the classic model of urbanization based upon Western experience nor the over-urbanization thesis explain the urbanization process in Peninsular Malaysia.
Abortion and family building models: Fertility limitation in Hungary
Authors: Ford Kathleen 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper demonstrates how family-building models can be used for checking the quality of abortion data. A family-building model, called FERMODA, is presented and used to check whether the available data on abortion for Hungary are consistent with Hungarian data on other aspects of family building. Model cohorts are generated, using in FERMODA the proportions of women married and the birth and abortion rates of two selected Hungarian cohorts. The estimates obtained from the simulated cohorts concerning use of contraception are compared with the information available on contraception, and, on the basis of this comparison, a judgment is made about the quality of abortion data for Hungary.
Some extensions of the keyfitz momentum relationship
Authors: Tognetti Keith 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
A stable population, such that the total birthrateB(t) =Boerot, is abruptly altered by modifying the age-specific birth rate,m(x). The survivor function remains unaltered. The modified population ultimately settles down to a stable behavior, such thatB(t) =B1er1t. It is shown thatB1/B0 = (R0 −R1)/[(r0 −r1)R0Z1], whereR0,R1 are the net reproduction rates before and after the change, and expected age giving birth for the stable population after the change. The age structure and transients resulting from the change are also described. The effect of an abrupt change in the survivor functionl(x) is also investigated for the simple case where the change is caused by alteringl(x) toe−λxl(x). It is shown that the above ratio becomes, whereN refers to the numbers in the population,k =r0 + λ, andg(x) =m(x)l(x), the value before the change. A measure for the reproductive worth of the population is also established.
A note on migration and employment
Authors: Li Wen Lang 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper examines the nature of the relation between migration and employment. A preliminary investigation confirms a previous observation that the employment rate of migrants is generally lower than that of non-migrants. A further analysis, however, suggests that this does not mean that migration has no effect on employment; in fact, the two appear to be strongly related. Migration enables some unemployed and initially disadvantaged persons to improve their employment status, making it more nearly comparable, though not equal, to that of the general population.
An instance of reverse heaping of ages
Authors: Myers Robert J. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This note reports on an interesting example of reverse heaping of ages for data from the Saudi Arabian social insurance system. Peaks occur for the number of workers at ages corresponding to years of birth ending in zeroes and fives, while there are troughs at such ages for the average monthly wages. Such troughs almost certainly are the result of workers with less education using a rounded year of birth, and, correspondingly, such workers would tend to have lower earnings.
The determinants of marital fertility in the united states, 1968–1970: Inferences from a dynamic model
Authors: Hout Michael 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Criticizing the static assumptions of previous socioeconomic and microeconomic models of marital fertility, particularly regarding the sequential and stochastic facets of family building, this paper advocates a dynamic perspective. Of particular concern is the assumption of equilibrium family size made by those who employ the static perspective. The equilibrium family size assumption implies that the parameters relating social and economic variables to fertility will be similar for all births, regardless of order. To test this assumption of constancy, a two-equation model of fertility and female employment is introduced. Contrary to the static perspective’s implication of constant effects, substantial parity differences in the estimates of parameters for both equations are reported, as are several differences between blacks and whites. On the basis of this evidence, I conclude that the static decision-making framework should be replaced by a dynamic approach to marital fertility.
The rise in divorce rates, 1960–1974: Age-specific components
Authors: Michael Robert T. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper uses vital statistics data from 15 states in the Divorce Registration Area to decompose into age-specific components the rise in the aggregate divorce rate between 1960and 1974. While women in their twenties comprise only about 20 percent of the married population, they appear to have contributed over 60 percent of the growth in the divorce rate during the decade of the sixties.
Occupational status scores: Changes introduced by the inclusion of women
Authors: Powers Mary G. , Holmberg Joan J. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper examines the impact of women’s labor force participation on occupational scores by comparing occupational status scores based on the characteristics of the 1970 male labor force with a set of occupational status scores based on the characteristics of the total 1970 labor force. Although the two sets of scores are highly correlated, important differences are found in the scores for specific occupations as well as for major occupational groups. Using the traditional list of 12 major occupational categories, we find that the positions of clerical workers and craftsmen are reversed when status scores are derived from data on all incumbents in the labor force rather than on male incumbents alone. The paper suggests that, with the increased participation of women in the labor force and the concomitant change in the sex composition of the work force, the traditional approaches to the measurement of occupational status based solely on male incumbents may no longer be valid for examining the occupational hierarchy of contemporary American society.
The simultaneous examination of economic and social factors in destination selection: Employing objective and subjective measures
Authors: Toney Michael B. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This research examines the role of social and economic factors in the past selection of destinations made by migrants living in Rhode Island. Results indicate that social ties playa more important role in the selection of destinations with low levels of opportunity than they do in the movement to high opportunity areas. An important aspect of the study was the simultaneous investigation of both objective and subjective measures of social and economic factors in the selection of low and high growth destinations. The analysis suggests that the simultaneous consideration of objective and subjective factors provides a more refined accounting of the potential influence of social and economic factors in the selection of destinations. The findings hold when age is introduced as a control.
Length of residence, social ties, and economic opportunities
Authors: Toney Michael B. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This study examines length of residence for movers—that subsection of the population which accounts for the high mobility rates in the United States. The propensity for repeated migration is studied in relation to economic opportunities and previous familial and personal contacts. The results indicate no influence of economic opportunities on duration of residence. This finding is consistent with recent research that indicates economic conditions are not a general stimulus for out-migration, although they are for in-migration. On the other hand, length of residence is found to be longer where previous familial and personal contacts existed. Overall, the results provide additional evidence of the importance of social, as opposed to strictly economic, variables in the migration process.
Female work experience, employment status, and birth expectations: Sequential decision-making in the Philippines
Authors: Rosenzweig Mark R. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The influence of women’s birth parity and accumulated market skills on their current labor force participation and birth expectations is examined within a sequential choice framework, Analysis of household data from the 1973 Philippines National Demographic Survey suggests these patterns: (a) women who have accumulated larger families work less in the current period and anticipate fewer additional births; (b) women with more past work experience tend to work more hours in the current period; and (c) work experience appears to have only a weak negative effect on birth expectations among older women.
Report on a multiple regression method for making population estimates
Authors: O’Hare William 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
A new method of making population estimates is introduced and contrasted to the standard ratio-correlation method. The new method, called the “difference-correlation method,” produced population estimates for the counties of Michigan which had a smaller mean percentage error than estimates produced by the ratio-correlation method. The differences of proportions which are used in the difference-correlation method will always have means of zero, while the ratios used in the ratio-correlation method have means which vary. Higher intercorrelations among the variables and increased temporal stability of the intercorrelations are two advantages of using differences rather than ratios.
Report on matching procedures of a dual record system in the southern Philippines
Authors: Madigan Francis C. , Wells H. Bradley 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
There are generally three stages to the development of rules for matching vital events data from two sources covering the same population: (a) establishing a set of “true” matches and nonmatches; (b) determining the best tolerance limits for each single characteristic which might be used in matching; and (c) experimenting to determine the set or sets of characteristics and the weights to be used in classifying a pair of records as matched or nonmatched. Specific examples, based on early matching experiments with data from the dual record system of the Mindanao Center for Population Studies (MCPS), are presented. Successive application of different sets of characteristics (differential valence rule) to the remaining unmatched events produced an acceptable rule for matching in this study.
Provisional evaluation of the 1970 census count of American Indians
Authors: Passel Jeffrey S. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Estimates of the American Indian population under 20 years of age on April I, 1970, based on birth and death statistics for a 20-year period, show a possible net undercount of 6.9 percent for this age group in the 1970 census. However, for some particular ages the estimates indicate net overcounts in the census. Likewise, the net increase of the entire American Indian population as measured by the difference between the 1960 and 1970 censuses is 67,000 greater than the natural increase for the decade. Detailed analysis of cohort data with respect to the possible causes of the differences between the estimates and the census figures indicate that a portion of the estimated net overcounts can be attributed to classification, as well as coverage, problems. The estimated net overcounts offer support for the hypothesis that many individuals who were registered as white at birth and who were counted as white in the 1960 census shifted their racial self-identification from white to American Indian during the 1960s.
Development and accuracy of projections of population and households in the united states
Authors: Siegel Jacob S. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The history of the official U. S. projections of population and house-holds in recent decades is briefly reviewed, with particular attention to methodology and the relation of the methodology to the accuracy of the projections. The introduction of the cohort-component procedure in the 1930’s opened the way for separate analysis of the trend of the components of births, deaths, and net immigration in connection with making population projections. As a further development, the period-fertility method of projecting births gave way in the 1960’s to the cohort-fertility method. Consideration is now being given to various methods involving parity-progression procedures. Some alternative methods and problems of measuring the accuracy of population projections are then considered. The percent “error” in the projected population growth, by components and age, and the range from high to low expressed as a percent should also be examined in addition to the percent “error” in the total population. However accuracy is measured, the projections made in the 1930’s and 1940’s were often wide of the mark, and those made in the 1950’s and 1960’s failed to anticipate the sharp changes which occurred, even though the actual figures usually fell within the range projected. Elaboration of projection methodology has not resulted in any great increase in the precision of the projections, largely because birth rates have fluctuated widely, and the fluctuations have proven difficult, if not impossible, to predict. The projections of households have had a roughly similar history, and the methods and problems of evaluation are somewhat similar. Their development has been characterized by the introduction of alternative and changing “headship” rates and increasing disaggregation of the data and procedures. The paper concludes with some generalizations based on U. S. experience. Although refinement of methods may contribute little to accuracy, accuracy is only one aspect of the usefulness of projections. The need for conditional projections and their analytical usefulness are such that there is no question that we should confidently continue to make them.
Residential Satisfaction as an Intervening Variable in Residential Mobility
Authors: Speare Alden 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The stress-threshold model (Wolpert, 1965; Brown and Moore, 1970) assumes that people do not consider moving unless they experience residential stress. This paper develops a similar model of residential mobility in which residential satisfaction acts as an intervening variable between individual and residence variables and mobility. The model is tested with data from a panel study of Rhode Island residents. The results indicate that residential satisfaction at the first interview is related to the wish to move and to mobility in the year following the interview. Individual and residence characteristics such as age of head duration of residence, home ownership, and room crowding are shown to affect mobility through their effect on residential satisfaction.
Marriage, Divorce, and Mortality: A Life Table Analysis
Authors: Schoen Robert , Nelson Verne E. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The life status table, an analytical model which follows a birth cohort through life and through the never-married, presently married, widowed and divorced statuses, is developed and applied to data from four Western populations. Particular attention is given to recent marriage, remarriage, and divorce trends in California. California data for 1969 imply that 40 percent of all marriages will end in divorce, that each marrying male will marry an average of 12/3 times, and that every woman born can expect to spend 61/2 years in the divorced state. Rising divorce rates may be seen as signaling fundamental changes in both the nature of the American family and the structure of American society.
Community satisfaction, expectations of moving, and migration
Authors: Bach Robert L. , Smith Joel 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
A previous residential mobility model (Speare, 1974) assumes an additive relationship between residential satisfaction, desire to move, and mobility. This paper elaborates the model and applies it to intercounty migration. An interaction between community satisfaction and expectations to migrate is hypothesized which distinguishes four groups of decision makers. A survey in Durham, North Carolina and a unique mobility followup over eight years provide the data to test the model and the interaction. Furthermore, using various time periods for identifying migrants offers some methodological insights. Results support Speare’s general formulation but only after the interaction is taken into account. A three-year migration interval is found to be appropriate.
Spline interpolation of demographic data
Authors: McNeil Donald R. , Trussell T. Jamel , Turner John C. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
There are many problems in demography involving the smoothing or interpolation of data. Usually a solution is obtained by fitting a polynomial or a suitable model curve. Often, however, fitting a spline proves to be a simple recourse. Splines were invented nearly 30 years ago and have been shown to have desirable properties. Although spline functions are by no means unknown to demographers, no simple and direct explanation of their application exists. We hope to remedy this deficiency with this expository piece.
Target Fertility, Contraception, And Aggregate Rates: Toward A Formal Synthesis
Authors: Lee Ronald Demos 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper develops a stock adjustment model relating total expected births to conventional aggregate fertility rates for married women over 25. Each year, cohorts bear about 20 percent of their additional expected births. Aggregate U.S. rates have been consistent with expectations as expressed in surveys between 1955 and 1975; indeed, total expected births may be inferred from aggregate fertility behavior. A peculiar empirical finding is that the additional expected fertility of nonterminators has not changed since 1955, despite the dramatic decline in total expected and actual fertility. The model leads to a dynamic expression for the duration pattern of current and cumulative fertility and for the proportion of couples who have terminated childbearing. The model is also used to analyze the effects of changing contraceptive failure rates on fertility patterns. For example, a decline in “timing” failure rates increases duration-specific fertility five years later.
Residential segregation in urbanized areas of the United States in 1970: An analysis of social class and racial differences
Authors: Farley Reynolds 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Sociologists and urban commentators often portray metropolitan areas as highly segregated by social class and race. We measured the extent of socioeconomic residential segregation in urbanized areas of the United States in 1970, determined whether cities were as segregated as suburban rings, and compared levels of socioeconomic and racial residential segregation. We found moderate levels of residential segregation of socioeconomic groups. Levels of social class segregation varied little from one urbanized area to another and were about the same in central cities and suburban rings. Racial residential segregation was much greater than the segregation of social classes within either the black or white communities. The extent of racial residential segregation does not vary by educational attainment, occupation, or income.
Effects of the immigration act of 1965 on selected population characteristics of immigrants to the United States
Authors: Keely Charles B. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Recent changes in immigration law have affected the characteristics of immigrants coming to the United States. The major changes in immigration policy contained in the 1965 Immigration Act, which amended the McCarran-Walter Act of 1952, concerned the abolition of the quota system, preference system and labor clearances for certain classes of immigrants. The effects of these policy changes on two controversial characteristics of immigrants, their country of origin and occupational levels, are traced. The law led to clear changes in origin of immigrants. Southern European, Asian and Caribbean immigrants make up a larger proportion of immigrants than previously. Although the volume of immigration increased, the distribution of occupational levels remained about the same. The sources of the various occupational groups shifted to some extent, especially the professional level from Asian countries. Some effects of the policy changes and the changes in population characteristics on the American social and political scene are briefly outlined.
Chronic movers and the future redistribution of population: A longitudinal analysis
Authors: Morrison Peter A. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This research has two purposes. First, it examines individual- and household-level factors related to the propensity to move. The findings reveal that mobility is largely a matter of habitual movers changing residence repeatedly and frequently. The second objective is concerned with strengthening the foundation for projecting aggregate levels of mobility: (1) how does repeated movement manifest itself at the metropolitan scale? and (2) for predictive purposes, which aggregate indices capture the most important features of local population composition? Mobility rates were found to vary principally with the prevalence of chronic movers in an SMSA. These findings have several implications for policies designed to guide future population distribution. First, an SMSA’s capacity to correct local manpower imbalances by exchanging human capital with other areas may depend partially on its relative abundance of habitual movers. Second, the likelihood that new cities would attract disproportionate numbers of hypermobile persons might enhance their role within the framework of a broader distribution policy. The question posed here is whether high intrinsic levels of population turnover in some cities might fit into a larger strategy for realigning population growth and distribution nationally.