bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
The Impact of Reserve Prices in Sealed Bid Federal Timber Sale Auctions
Authors: Carter Douglas R. , Newman David H. 
Published: April 2024

Abstract
In this article we examine the impact of reserve prices on timber revenues from federal timber sale auctions in North Carolina from a game-theoretic perspective by recognizing the effect of competition on optimal bid strategies. The empirical model endogenizes the number of bidders in a simultaneous-equations Tobit framework, and estimates the impacts of the reserve price on the probability that an offering will sell, as well as on the sale price given that the offering is sold, in the presence of strategic bidding behavior. Model results support the underlying game-theoretic structure. The number of bidders and the reserve price are both important in determining market value or high bid. Using a Wu-Hausman test, we reject exogeneity in the number of bidders. Importantly, a calculation of the change in market value given a change in the reserve price shows that increasing reserve prices will likely increase timber revenues on sales in North Carolina, thus providing evidence that reserve prices are not optimal. However, increasing the reserve price will decrease the proportion of sold sales which may not support nontimber objectives of the Forest Service. For. Sci. 44(4):485-495.
Risk Preferences and Adaptive Harvest Policies for Even-Aged Stand Management
Authors: Gong Peichen 
Published: April 2024

Abstract
Uncertainty in future states of nature affects the set of feasible management alternatives as well as a forest owner's preferences among different alternatives. To incorporate uncertainty into forestry decisions, both effects should be recognized simultaneously. This study concerns the final harvest decision in even-aged stand management with stochastic stumpage prices. An expected utility maximization model is developed for determining the optimal adaptive harvest policy. Instead of assuming risk-neutrality on the side of forest owners, the model explicitly incorporates risk preferences into the determination of reservation prices. A method for estimating the set of efficient adaptive harvest policies for risk-averse forest owners is developed based on the mean-variance rule and stochastic dominance analysis. The set of efficient adaptive harvest policies is estimated and compared with the set of efficient rotation ages for two example stands. Numerical results show that any risk-averse forest owner prefers the optimal adaptive harvest policy to the optimal rotation age. By using the rule of "harvest only when the observed stumpage price is equal to or higher than the reservation price," the expected net present value can be increased, and, meanwhile, the standard deviation of the net present value can be reduced significantly. Incorporation of risk-aversion leads to reservation prices that may be lower than those that maximize the expected net present value. It indicates that risk-averse forest owners typically should harvest earlier than risk-neutral forest owners. For. Sci. 44(4):496-506.
Using the Non-Parametric Classifier CART to Model Forest Tree Mortality
Authors: Dobbertin Matthias , Biging Gregory S. 
Published: April 2024

Abstract
A binary classification tree (CART) was used to predict forest tree mortality for two conifer species. CART models were fitted using binary recursive splitting of the data set into increasingly homogeneous subsets. Models were compared in terms of improvement of prediction accuracy, representativeness in average size of the predicted mortality trees, and interpretability of the results. For shade intolerant ponderosa pine, crown ratio, diameter increment prediction, or variables indicating the relative position of a tree in a stand were used for splitting. For shade tolerant white fir, height increment prediction and stand density were selected for splitting. The prediction accuracies for mortality trees of the best CART models were between 28-36% for ponderosa pine and between 11-17% for white fir. CART was also compared with logistic regression using a stochastic and a deterministic assignment of mortality. Efficiencies similar to those achieved with CART were reached with deterministic logistic models using thresholds probabilities. However, CART and the logistic model tended to utilize different predictor variables, especially for white fir. CART uncovered additional factors for white fir important for predicting mortality not identified by the logistic regression. For. Sci. 44(4):507-516.
The Economic Impact of a Subsidy on Mexican Grains and Forestry: A CGE Analysis
Authors: Boyd Roy , Doroodian Khosrow 
Published: April 2024

Abstract
This study first examines the economy-wide impacts of the "Pro-Campo" grains subsidy program. It then analyzes the effects of extending this program to forestry as a means of curbing further deforestation. To accomplish these objectives, we employ a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Mexican economy. Our findings show that (1) the subsidies lead to a transfer of resources from the refining, natural gas, services, and financial services sectors into the various agricultural, manufacturing, and mining sectors; (2) All consumption sectors except the food and the alcohol and tobacco sectors decrease as a result of subsidies; (3) The lower income groups experience an increase in their income at the expense of the upper income groups when government revenue and expenditure are held constant. Such results suggest that extension of "Pro-Campo" benefits to the forestry sector should have the desired impact of keeping land and capital resources in forestry. Our results, however, only pertain to commercial species and do not include the off-side damages which may occur to useful noncommercial species. For. Sci. 44(4):578-586.
Analyzing Consistency of Experts' Judgments—Case of Assessing Forest Biodiversity
Authors: Kangas Jyrki , Alho Juha M. , Kolehmainen Osmo , Mononen Ari 
Published: April 2024

Abstract
Incorporation of biodiversity considerations into forest planning requires methods for the operationalization of biodiversity and for the quantification of expert judgments concerning the future implications of alternative forest management plans. Applying expert knowledge in numerical decision support most probably involves much uncertainty. To reduce biases, the use of several independent experts seems advisable. However, the experts may disagree, and it is not always clear whether this is due to genuine disagreements, or because of misunderstandings or other errors that may occur in the elicitation process. In this study, an approach is presented for analyzing the uncertainties in expert judgments elicited by pairwise comparisons, and for improving the consistency of judgments. Ecological expertise is applied in the estimation of an evaluation model which can be used in assessing alternative forest plans with respect to biodiversity in optimization calculations. The approach is based on the combined use of HERO optimization method developed for tactical forest planning, Delphi technique, and variance components modeling. The Delphi technique may be helpful in understanding better the causes of the possible disagreements. Variance components modeling is used to estimate the changes in the views of 11 experts concerning the different components of biodiversity, in three Delphi rounds. It turned out that the views converged to some extent, but in one case an increase in shared inconsistency among judges was also detected. For. Sci. 44(4):610-617.
Nutritional and Sexual Responses of Jack Pine to Ammonium Nitrate and Gibberellins
Authors: Fogal W.H. , Larocque G.R. , Lopushanski S.M. , Schooley H.O. , Anderson M.L. , Edwards I.K. , Coleman S.J. , Wolynetz M.S. 
Published: April 2024

Abstract
The nutritional and sexual responses of jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) seed orchard trees to NH4NO3 fertilization and GA4/7 foliar sprays were examined in seedling and grafted orchards at an Ontario location where soils were low N acidic sandy loams and in a Saskatchewan grafted orchard on high N calcareous sandy clay loams. High seed strobilus abortion and low pollen strobilus production and seed yields characterized the Saskatchewan trees. NH4NO3 fertilizer increased soil NH4+ and NO3- at both locations, current-year needle N and Mg in Ontario, Fe in Saskatchewan, and Ca at both locations, seed strobilus initiation and seed yields in Ontario; it decreased K in Saskatchewan. GA4/7 increased needle senescence and current-year needle N and P at both locations, K at Saskatchewan, seed and pollen strobilus initiation in Ontario, seed strobilus initiation and abortion in Saskatchewan, and seed yields per tree in Ontario; it decreased Ca at both locations, Mg at Saskatchewan, and diameter increments the year following treatments in Ontario. NH4NO3 and GA4/7 treatments did not interact for strobilus counts. Sexual expression varied with clones in Saskatchewan but not with families in Ontario. Clones interacted with GA4/7 but not NH4NO3 for seed strobilus initiation. For. Sci. 45(1):136-153.
Basal Area Growth and Crown Closure in a Loblolly Pine Spacing Trial
Authors: Radtke Philip J. , Burkhart Harold E. 
Published: April 2024

Abstract
Data collected after each of the first 13 yr since planting of a loblolly pine spacing trial were used to study relationships between basal area growth and crown closure. Crown closure and crown competition factor at the inflection age of cumulative basal area growth were examined on 192 plots of varying initial density and rectangularity at four sites in the Piedmont and the Atlantic Coastal Plain. Inflection age increased with initial growing space, but at a decreasing rate, presumably approaching some maximum value that would be realized in the absence of all competition. The inflection generally occurred earlier on study sites with the highest site index values, but exceptions to this trend were observed. The degree of crown closure at the inflection age increased with planting density, but did not depend in a meaningful way on the site index of the study sites. Crown competition factor at the inflection age increased with planting density, but also increased with site index. Rectangularity did not significantly affect the inflection age, but it did reduce the level of crown closure at that age. A test for the effect of rectangularity on crown competition factor was inconclusive. For. Sci. 45(1):35-44.
Composite and Calibration Estimation Following 3P Sampling
Authors: Gregoire Timothy G. , Valentine Harry T. 
Published: April 2024

Abstract
Two alternatives to the generalized ratio estimator, i.e., Grosenbaugh's 3PSEVENTH, are studied. Both make more complete use of auxiliary information which is available at the conclusion of 3P sampling. Both appear to be more biased but more accurate than 3PSEVENTH. For. Sci. 45(2):179-185.
Forecasting Adoption and Substitution of Successive Generations of Structural Wood Panel Products in the United States
Authors: Shook Steven R. 
Published: April 2024

Abstract
A sizable body of literature concerned with technological substitution modeling exists within the domain of forest products. These models have generally been used to develop market share forecasts for various forest products and their substitutes based on relative product prices. Substitution models usually assume that the potential market size is known and that products can freely substitute for one another. A small but growing literature concerned with the diffusion of innovations also exists within the domain of forest products. This diffusion literature typically focuses on factors affecting consumer acceptance for product innovations and forecasting the level of demand growth without constraining the potential market size. In this paper, we examine the dynamic sales behavior of three and four successive generations of structural wood panel products using varying forms of a multigeneration diffusion model. The multigeneration diffusion model introduced here, which encompasses the elements of diffusion and substitution modeling, assumes that a new structural wood panel product will diffuse through a population of potential consumers over time and that market share competition will be introduced with successive generations of structural wood panels. It is important to note that our results are contingent upon the use of domestic production data, which is used as a proxy for domestic consumption. In other words, our results do not factor in net imports. Estimation results indicate that market share competition between various structural wood panel products are differentially impacted by substitution and diffusion effects. We explore the managerial implications of the model results and suggest alternative multigeneration diffusion models that could be developed for structural wood panel products. For. Sci. 45(2):232-248.
Spatially Optimizing Wildlife Habitat Edge Effects in Forest Management Linear and Mixed-Integer Programs
Authors: Bevers Michael , Hof John 
Published: April 2024

Abstract
We present a spatial optimization model that accounts for wildlife edge effects through multiple habitat needs in a multistand forest management problem. Wildlife population dynamics are based on discrete reaction-diffusion processes combined with multiple limiting-factor constraint sets, one for nest site capacity and another for effective forage capacity. The model is shown to reasonably represent both negative and positive effects of forest edges on wildlife by varying the amount of forage production from harvested and unharvested forest areas in a static formulation. A dynamic model is also demonstrated, and scale effects are examined using mixed-integer programming. For. Sci. 45(2):249-258.
Occurrence of Moths among Habitats in a Mixed Mesophytic Forest: Implications for Management of Forest Bats
Authors: Burford Laura S. , Lacki Michael J. , Covell Charles V. 
Published: April 2024

Abstract
We used blacklight traps during summer 1992 to index the frequency of occurrence and species composition of moths in five habitats on an actively managed, mixed mesophytic forest in eastern Kentucky. The habitats sampled were clearings, poletimber (&lt; 30 yr old), moderate-aged sawtimber (30-50 yr old), and mature timber (70-80 yr old); the latter habitat was only available at the base of cliffs and on top of cliffs, where no harvest restrictions were in effect. We identified 4,107 moths representing 158 species and 17 families in the catches. Moths in the family Arctiidae were captured most frequently (n = 1,389), whereas moths in the family Noctuidae comprised the largest number of species (n = 53). We captured the most species (n = 83) and families (n = 17) of moths in stands of mature timber at the base of cliffs, and the fewest species (n = 57) of moths in clearings. Moths in the families Yponomeutidae, Limacodidae, Pyralidae, Geometridae, and Notodontidae were captured most frequently in stands of moderate-aged sawtimber, whereas moths in the family Arctiidae were most common in stands of moderate-aged sawtimber and poletimber. We captured moths in the family Noctuidae most frequently in stands of mature timber on top of cliffs. Moths in the families Limacodidae, Geometridae, Notodontidae, and Arctiidae were captured less frequently in clearings than other habitats, suggesting less use of clearings by moths than the other habitats sampled. These data indicate that the frequency of occurrence and species composition of moths varied among habitats in a mixed mesophytic forest in eastern Kentucky, suggesting that forest management practices can influence the diversity and abundance of moth species. These results have implications for sustaining forest biodiversity, particularly vertebrate predators that feed on moths including forest-dwelling insectivorous bats. For. Sci. 45(3):323-332.
Distributive Impacts of Forest Resource Policies in Alberta
Authors: Alavalapati Janaki R. R. , Adamowicz Wiktor L. , White William A. 
Published: April 2024

Abstract
Economy-wide and distributive impacts of: (1) an $80 million increase in pulp and paper exports; (2) a $10 million decrease in lumber exports; (3) a 25% increase in the costs of timber production; and (4) a 25% increase in the costs of pulp and paper production in Alberta's forest sector are examined. A social accounting matrix (SAM)-based quantity model is used to examine the first two shocks, while a SAM-based price model is used to analyze the last two shocks. The results of the quantity model suggest that higher income households get a larger share of the benefits than lower income households in response to an expansion in the pulp and paper industry. A contraction in the lumber sector will hurt higher income households more than lower income households. Larger shares of medium and higher income households in total labor income and capital rents are identified as reasons for this asymmetric response. The results of the price model suggest that additional costs associated with sustainable forest management and environmental regulations will hurt lower income households more than higher income households. The higher share of consumer expenditure in total income for lower income households when compared to that of high income households may be responsible for this result. For. Sci. 45(3):342-348.
Effects of Douglas-Fir Dwarf Mistletoe on Trees in Thinned Stands in the Pacific Northwest
Authors: Tinnin Robert O. , Parks Catherine G. , Knutson Donald M. 
Published: April 2024

Abstract
The growth of 450 Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) in thinned stands was assessed over 20 yr. Trees infected with Douglas-fir dwarf mistletoe (Arceuthobium douglasii) were compared with uninfected trees. A significant reduction in radial and height growth was observed when infection progressed beyond half to two-thirds of the volume of a tree crown being composed of witches' broom. Growth rates varied over time, depending on environmental conditions, but heavily infected trees showed significantly reduced growth under all observed conditions. The effect of dwarf mistletoe on diameter growth in heavily infected trees was greater when the trees grew under more rigorous conditions. Tree vigor, as estimated by the ratio of basal area increment to sapwood area, was significantly reduced among trees with more than two-thirds of the crown broomed. The level of infection was measured using broom volume rating, a seven-class system based on a ratio of the volume of broomed to unbroomed branches. Over a 10-yr period, tree infection class increased at the rate of approximately one infection class every 15 yr on average. At high levels of infection, crown decline and dieback contributed to an accelerated rate of change in infection class in this study. For. Sci. 45(3):359-365.
An Optimization Approach to Selecting Research Natural Areas in National Forests
Authors: Snyder Stephanie A. , Tyrrell Lucy E. , Haight Robert G. 
Published: April 2024

Abstract
The USDA Forest Service has a long-established program to identify areas in national forests for designation as protected Research Natural Areas (RNAs). One of the goals is to protect high quality examples of regional ecosystems for the purposes of maintaining biological diversity, conducting nonmanipulative research and monitoring, and fostering education. When RNA designation conflicts with other land uses, difficult choices must be made about the best number and location of sites. We addressed this problem by adapting a classic optimization formulation from the location science literature. The formulation was an integer optimization model for selecting the set of RNAs that maximized the number of regional ecosystems and natural communities represented subject to an upper bound on the total area covered by the sites in the selected set. We applied the formulation using 33 potential RNAs in the Superior National Forest in northeastern Minnesota. The 33 potential RNAs were chosen for our case study because they had been mapped and field-surveyed for the presence of natural communities. The use of those sites does not imply that other areas in the Superior National Forest do not merit further study as RNA candidates. The model quickly generated information about the trade-offs between different protection goals. We found multiple sets of potential RNAs, ranging from all 33 sites to a much smaller set of 21 sites, that attained the specified goals for natural community representation. Thus, the decision-maker can choose among sets of sites with a wide range of total areas without compromising the representation goal. We also found that requirements to choose a set of sites that represents a range of locally defined ecosystems or priority natural communities can limit the total number of natural communities that can be represented within a set of sites of a given area. Average solution times for different problems were less than 5 seconds on a personal computer, suggesting that integer optimization can readily facilitate investigation of the impacts of RNA selection goals. For. Sci. 45(3):458-469.
A Framework for Forest Accounting
Authors: Vincent Jeffrey R. 
Published: April 2024

Abstract
Many recent empirical studies have proposed a variety of forest-related adjustments to the national income accounts. The complexity of forest-economy interactions makes such adjustments prone to double-counting and other problems if they are not guided by economic theory. This paper presents a framework for making internally consistent, theoretically sound adjustments. The framework offers two broad guidelines for applied work. First, one should adjust the overall level of gross domestic product (GDP), and thus net domestic product (NDP), for household consumption of nonmarket forest amenities and nontimber products, but not for production externalities. Accounting for production externalities involves reallocating value added among different production sectors included in GDP. Second, one should adjust NDP for the net accumulation (not just depreciation) of forest-related assets, including the timber stock, the carbon stock, and land converted from forest to other uses. The framework also offers some guidance for methods to quantify values associated with these adjustments. For. Sci. 45(4):552-571.
Estimating Type B Genetic Correlations with Unbalanced Data and Heterogeneous Variances for Half-Sib Experiments
Authors: Lu Peng-xin , White Timothy L. , Huber Dudley A. 
Published: April 2024

Abstract
A statistical approach is proposed for estimating type B genetic correlations with unbalanced data and heterogeneous variances across environments. First, parental GCA (one-half of the parental breeding value) effects are predicted separately for each environment using best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP). Second, predicted parental GCAs are weighted by their prediction accuracies and Pearson correlation between weighted GCAs in two environments is obtained. Third, type B genetic correlation is calculated by dividing the Pearson correlation with the mean products of prediction accuracies. Advantages of this approach include: (1) fixed effects are removed using best linear unbiased estimation (BLUE) so that they less seriously confound genetic effects when data are unbalanced; (2) heterogeneous variances associated with genetic group means are adjusted for during the process of parental GCA prediction; and (3) it is applicable when experimental designs are different in two environments. Numeric comparisons of estimation methods using simulated data of known true genetic parameters indicated that the new approach produces less bias and higher precision when data are highly unbalanced or have high level heterogeneity of variances across environments. For slightly or moderately unbalanced data, the method of Yamada (1962), however, is simpler and yields satisfactory estimates using standardized data. For. Sci. 45(4):562-572.