bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Cooperative Games in Stochastic Characteristic Function Form
Authors: Granot Daniel 
Published: November 2008

Additional results are presented in this paper which further extend and modify the theory of cooperative games in characteristic function form so as to encompass situations where the values of the coalitions are random variables with given distribution functions. We reintroduce the prior nucleolus and provide a new characterization of it in terms of an optimal solution to a finite sequence of consistent and bounded NLP problems. From this new characterization it follows immediately that the prior nucleolus is unique for strictly monotone increasing distribution functions. We also extend the notions of objections and counterobjections to these games and construct and study the prior kernel and prior bargaining set 𝒫ℛ1(i). A new notion of solution for the second part of the play of these games is suggested.
A Discrete Time, Single Server Queue from a Finite Population
Authors: Minh Do Le 
Published: November 2008

One of the standard assumptions in queueing theory is that the system operates for an indefinite period of time. This assumption, however, is not valid for many practical situations where there is only a finite number of customers and each customer requires service only once. This paper studies such a finite queueing system in which all customers have the same time-dependent arrival probability function. The method of solution allows one to “follow” each customer to record his arrival and departure times. While the study of the former is straightforward, the generating function of the departure time probabilities and the expected departure time of each customer are expressed in terms of the emptiness probabilities, which can be calculated from a recurrence relation. When the arrival probability function is independent of time, explicit results are obtained.
A Spike Collective Dynamic Factorization Algorithm for the Simplex Method
Authors: McBride Richard D. 
Published: November 2008

A dynamic factorization algorithm is developed which uses a partition of the basis to permit the simplex method to be executed from a small working inverse and a small, sparse triangular submatrix of the basis. This partition is maintained dynamically using spike swapping in a way which seeks to keep the size of the working inverse as small as possible. The algorithm is intended for use in solving general large scale linear programming problems. It is especially well suited for problems whose simplex basis has a small number of spikes after application of the Hellerman and Rarick P3 procedure. Preliminary computation experience and direct comparison with Reid's sparsity-exploiting variant of the Bartels-Golub decomposition for LP bases indicate that a significant reduction is obtained with the dynamic factorization approach in the nonzero elements needed to represent the basis inverse. For all bases considered the number of nonzero elements needed to represent the inverse immediately prior to rein version is reduced by a factor of 1.7 to 20.
Generalized Networks: A Fundamental Computer-Based Planning Tool
Authors: Glover F. , Hultz J. , Klingman D. , Stutz J. 
Published: November 2008

This paper documents the recent emergence of generalized networks as a fundamental computer-based planning tool and demonstrates the power of the associated modeling and solution techniques when used together to solve real-world problems. The first sections of the paper give a non-technical account, of how generalized networks are used to model a diversity of significant practical problems. To begin, we discuss the model structure of a generalized network (GN) and provide a brief survey of applications which have been modeled as GN problems. Next we explain a somewhat newer modeling technique in which generalized networks form a major, but not the only, component of the model. The later sections give a technical exposition of the design and analysis of computer solution techniques for large-scale GN problems. They contain a study of GN solution strategies within the framework of specializations of the primal simplex method. We identify an efficient solution procedure derived from an integrated system of start, pivot, and degeneracy rules. The resulting computer code is shown, on large problems, to be at least 50 times more efficient than the LP system, APEX III.
Analysis of the Time Indexed List Procedure for Synchronization of Discrete Event Simulations
Authors: Engelbrecht-Wiggans Richard , Maxwell William L. 
Published: November 2008

Increasingly simulations have been required as supportive evidence to management of proposed system changes. It has long been recognized that the computer running costs of simulations are strongly influenced by the synchronization mechanism used. Recently the time indexed list has been proposed as a superior alternative to existing event synchronization mechanisms for computer simulations. Intuition and empirical data indicate that such a mechanism should result in substantial savings of computer time; the mathematical results of this paper substantiate this. This paper undertakes a rigorous mathematical and probabilistic analysis of the mechanism. Several different probabilistic event arrival models and arbitrary event schedule time distributions are considered. Results for several specific cases are calculated. It is shown that the distribution is quite insensitive to the arrival process and is usually a simple integral of the interarrival time distribution. Next, the cost of scheduling new arrivals is calculated and shown to be approximately independent of the probabilistic details; the first order term depends only on the mean arrival rate. The robustness of these results, and the considerable savings in computer time realized, strongly recommend the time indexed list procedure.
Production Smoothing Under Piecewise Concave Costs, Capacity Constraints and Nondecreasing Requirements
Authors: Korgaonker M. G. 
Published: November 2008

The production smoothing problem with known demands that are assumed to increase with time is treated. The production and inventory costs are concave. The cost of increasing production from one period to the next is a concave function of the increase; similarly, the cost of decreasing production is a concave function of the decrease. Backlogging is not permitted. In each period, a fixed production capacity that does not vary with time is available. The problem it similar to that discussed by Zangwill, except for the important difference of capacity constraint. Feasible production plans are partitioned into sets on the basis of production differences from period to period—those with production increases in all N periods, those with a decrease only in the final period, etc. A minimum cost plan is an extreme point of one of these sets. We show that an extreme point plan is such that in between periods with zero inventory there is at most one sequence of periods when production is neither zero nor capacity and within these periods, production does not change. An algorithm is proposed for generating extreme point production plans. It is shown that finding the minimum cost production plan is equivalent to finding the shortest route through an acyclic network of extreme point production plans. The approach put forth enables a complete solution to the problem discussed.
Multiteam, Multiproject Research and Development Planning with GERT
Authors: Moore Laurence J. , Taylor Bernard W. 
Published: November 2008

This paper reports on a simulation study of multiple research and development projects that are worked on concurrently and sequentially by more than one research team. The technique employed in the modeling and simulation effort was GERT, which was used because of its capability to incorporate the probabilistic outcomes and feedback loops common to R&D projects. The GERT (Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique) includes the modeling of systems in network form and analysis through simulation. It is an important example of technological spin-off from space science research. GERT provides the capability to model and analyze networks of a very general form. Some of the features included in GERT networking are probabilistic branching (stochastic models), network looping (feedback loops), multiple sink nodes (multiple outcomes), multiple node realizations (repeat events), and multiple probability distributions (assigned to activity times). GERT networks are typically analyzed using the GERTS IIIZ simulation package, which provides statistics on project times and cost. Results of the simulation included statistical data on individual project duration and cost as well as overall network time and cost. These results were employed to provide management with an evaluation of different model configurations, prepare overall time and cost estimates as inputs to contract negotiations and to plan and schedule manpower, equipment and capital. Sensitivity analysts was employed to determine key stages in the R&D process where changes in success-failing probabilities might reduce network time and cost. Implementation experiences validated the model as satisfactory with the exception of several minor problems.
A Multiple-Objective Policy Model: Results of an Application to a Developing Country
Authors: Legasto Augusto A. 
Published: November 2008

In this paper the results and implications of an application of dynamic simulation modeling to the study of control of social unrest in a developing country are presented. The model demonstrates the use of a multiple-objective, multiple-group objective function designed to monitor the “pressure level” of social unrest in the modeled system. An outline of the model structure is presented and sample relationships are explained in detail to demonstrate the dynamic and feedback nature of the model. The paper then presents some of the recommendations and their managerial and public policy implications derived from a policy analysis of the model. The analysis, for instance, reveals that a program designed to achieve the highest possible economic growth rate could adversely affect the society's stability in the long run. The study, in addition, finds that an extensive income redistribution program, designed to tax the rich more heavily and to substantially increase the minimum income of the poor, proves to be myopic while an extensive wealth redistribution program is shown to bring about a significant and sustained improvement in the system's stability. These results raise serious questions on much of the attitudes that underlie economic development and income redistribution programs in countries like India, Brazil, the Philippines and, to some extent, the United States.
An HMMS Type Interactive Model for Aggregate Planning
Authors: Welam Ulf Peter 
Published: November 2008

For purposes of aggregate production smoothing, quadratic functions often produce good fits to data on some of the relevant incremental costs, such as inventory and overtime costs. However, when costs of hiring and laying off workers are described by smooth quadratic functions, the model solutions tend to involve very frequent minor workforce adjustments. Production managers are often unwilling to actually implement such decisions because changing workforce levels involves a great many intangible costs, many of which seem to defy meaningful analytic representation. In this paper an interactive model is developed where, through parametric analysis of a set of workforce constraints, a manager can establish the appropriate trade-offs between his judgmental estimates of hiring and firing costs and other more tangible production costs.
The Economic Lot Scheduling Problem (ELSP): Review and Extensions
Authors: Elmaghraby Salah E. 
Published: November 2008

The ELSP is a time-honored problem that “has been around” since 1915. It is the problem of accommodating cyclical production patterns when several products are made on a single facility. Recent contributions to its resolution resulted in either analytical approaches to a restricted problem, or heuristic approaches to the entire problem. This paper reviews critically the various contributions to the problem, and extends the analysis in the following four directions: An improved analytical approach A test for feasibility, A systematic means for escape from infeasibility, and A procedure for the determination of a basic period for a given set of multipliers to achieve a feasible schedule.
ARTS PLAN: A Model Based System for Use in Planning a Performing Arts Series
Authors: Weinberg Charles B. , Shachmut Kenneth M. 
Published: November 2008

This paper is concerned with the application of marketing and management science to some of the problems involved in managing a series of performing arts presentations. Although some of the decisions are largely “artistic” and not subject to formal analytic procedures, many other decisions can be aided by model-based procedures. This paper describes some of the analytic procedures which are being used by the management of one performing arts series. The starting point for ARTS PLAN is dummy variable regression analysis of historical data which leads to a prediction of attendance at future performances. This prediction can be overridden by the manager if he or she disagrees with the forecast The forecast is then embedded in an interactive model which can be used for planning a season or for deciding which events to promote in a season already planned.
Optimal Repairman Allocation—Asymptotic Results
Authors: Smith Donald R. 
Published: November 2008

We consider a single repairman who maintains a coherent system of n components. Each component works for and is repaired in random periods of time with exponential distribution independent of the behavior of other components. We try to find a policy for assignment of the repairman which maximizes the long run probability that the system functions. Although the general problem is quite complicated, highly reliable and highly unreliable systems can be solved easily by asymptotic techniques. These techniques express ergodic probabilities and expected passage times between states in power series of an asymptotic parameter when the policy employed is in a class of potentially optimal policies. As an example, the highly reliable optimal actions are obtained for the k of n system which includes both series and parallel systems.
The Use of Exponentially-Smoothed Transition Matrices to Improve Forecasting of Cash Flows from Accounts Receivable
Authors: Corcoran A. Wayne 
Published: November 2008

A pioneering application of a Markov chain to forecast account receivable flows (Cyert, Davidson, and Thompson [Cyert, R. M., H. J. Davidson, G. L. Thompson. 1962. Estimation of the allowance for doubtful accounts by Markov chains. Management Sci. (August) 287–303.]) employed an unusual (the oldest balance) method of aging accounts and an assumption that the resulting transition matrix was stable. Forecasting steady state results was the primary focus of the application. The present research uses a commonly found (partial balance) method of aging, an assumption of dynamic changes in the transition matrix, and does not focus on steady state results. A manufacturer's data were analyzed and exponential smoothing was introduced to update the average transition matrix thereby enabling a tracking of changing customer payment behavior. The actual and Markovian estimates of the company's cash collections checked favorably. The paper also discusses how modifications such as the seasonal and trend adjustments introduced by Winters (Winters, P. R. 1960. Forecasting sales by exponentially weighted moving averages. Management Sci. (April) 324–342.) may be incorporated into the model. Extensions to other areas are offered.
Decentralization of the Capital Budgeting Authority
Authors: Sharon Ed M. 
Published: November 2008

A conceptually new first-cut decision-aid for optimal delegation is introduced. It takes a subjective approach to capital budgeting, from the delegator's perspective. A model captures the tradeoffs between the cost of centralized (duplicated) review, and the opportunity cost and risk of having (otherwise) “unacceptable” projects. Two explicit limits to optimal decentralization are identified to help headquarters (HQ) to select the kinds of proposals that should be: Approved and executed by divisions without HQ review. Rejected by divisions without HQ review. Submitted to HQ for a centralized review. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the process.
The Interaction Effect of Preference and Availability on Brand Switching and Market Share
Authors: Jeuland Abel P. 
Published: November 2008

Observed purchase behavior is the result of the combined effect of preference and availability. A multibrand choice model of a frequently purchased consumer good is developed. The model allows for the heterogeneity of the population with respect to brand preference. It also considers that all brands are not identically distributed and are thus not equally available to the potential buyers of the product class. The model uses the brand switching matrix in order to parcel out the effect of preference and availability. It is compared with the Hendry System which also uses the brand switching matrix for the purpose of measuring brand substitution or competition. The Hendry System being a special case of the model presented in this paper, the likelihood ratio test is employed to test the more general model against Hendry. The estimation and testing procedure uses cooking oil data from 1,961 households who remained in the Secodip Consumer Panel, France, for the entire 1971–1972 period. The variable of availability is found to account for an additional significant portion of the variance of the switching flows. The model should prove to be a useful tool to interpret correctly the popular quantitative summary of multibrand markets, namely the switching matrix. More efficient use of panel data by marketing decision makers should result.
Exceptional Paper—ADVISOR 2: Modeling the Marketing Mix Decision for Industrial Products
Authors: Lilien Gary L. 
Published: November 2008

This paper reports the results of the ADVISOR 2 study, aimed at providing an understanding of and guidance for marketing mix decisions for industrial products. The study involved 22 companies and 131 products. Although cross-sectional in nature, justification is presented for using the descriptive results as guidelines for marketing mix decisions. Models are presented for advertising expenditures, marketing expenditures, marketing budget allocations, year-to-year changes in advertising spending and for selection of distribution channels. The level of marketing expenditures and the split of marketing into advertising and personal setting are shown to be affected by a few, general product and market characteristics of which product sales and the number of customers are key. It is shown that it is fruitful to study the advertising budget as advertising = (advertising/marketing) × marketing; i.e., a marketing budget is set and then a split of that budget into personal and impersonal communications is made. This two-stage view clarifies the role of different product and market characteristics in the models. The change in advertising spending is related to changes in market share, changes in product plans and changes in the number of competitors modified by the number of customers, their concentration and the size of the advertising budget. The decision to use a direct channel of distribution (primarily salesforce) is affected by the size of the firm, the size of an average order, the stage in the product's life cycle, the complexity of the product, the fraction of the product's sales made-to-order and the purchase frequency of the product. A discussion of the use of the ADVISOR models both for marketing decision making and for marketing researchers and model builders is included.
Participation Rates in Government Transfer Programs: Application to Housing Allowances
Authors: Rydell C. Peter , Mulford John E. , Kozimor Lawrence W. 
Published: November 2008

A general model of participation in a transfer program is developed and applied to data obtained from housing allowance programs in Brown County, Wisconsin and St. Joseph County, Indiana. Estimates of the parameters of the model are obtained from pooled data for the two sites, and the fitted model is used to estimate the equilibrium level of participation and the time required to reach it. The model predicts that the participation rate three years after the housing allowance program's start-40 percent-will rise to a maximum of 51 percent when equilibrium is reached. The model also predicts that 95 percent of the equilibrium level will be reached 5.5 years after the program's start. Although below expectations, the 51 percent equilibrium participation rate is not low compared with other government transfer programs; it is about the same as New York City's welfare and food stamp programs, for example. The model provides valuable insights into the dynamics of government transfer programs. In particular, it shows that the equilibrium participation rate equals the ratio of the rate at which eligible nonparticipants enroll in the program (enrollment rate) to the sum of the enrollment rate and the rate at which participants leave the program (termination rate). If the enrollment and termination rates are equal to each other, as they tend to be in the transfer programs studied, then in equilibrium at a given time only 50 percent of the eligible households will be program participants. The analysis suggests that the most practical way to increase participation is to increase the enrollment rate.
An Efficient Algorithm to Determine Stochastic Dominance Admissible Sets
Authors: Bawa Vijay S. , Lindenberg Eric B. , Rafsky Lawrence C. 
Published: November 2008

Stochastic Dominance (SD) rules are playing an increasingly prominent role in the theory of choice under uncertainty. Its application areas include stock selection, capital budgeting, etc. The theory is important because it generates decision rules which are more generally applicable to these problems than are the traditional two parameter (mean-variance) rules employed in much of financial decision making. While they are theoretically sound, the SD rules are, until now, hard to implement because they require comparisons of probability distributions over their entire ranges. In this paper, we develop an algorithm that should remedy this situation. It exploits recent theoretical results from the Stochastic Dominance literature as well as several computational techniques to efficiently determine the SD admissible set of alternatives, which contains the optimal choices for all decision makers whose preferences satisfy reasonable economic criteria. As compared with the fastest code currently available, an implementation of our algorithm significantly reduces the computational time required to solve a problem of considerable size. These results indicate that, as a management tool, this algorithm can be applied to choice problems not previously thought solvable. For example, in the portfolio choice problem, which has an infinite choice set, the algorithm can provide reasonable approximations to the true set of optimal choices via the use of a suitably fine enough grid on the space of portfolios.