bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
A TIME‐SERIES APPROACH FOR CONSTRUCTING EXPECTATIONS MODELS*
Authors: Koreisha Sergio G. 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTThis article presents an efficient way of dealing with adaptive expectations models—a way that makes use of all the information available in the data. The procedure is based on multiple‐input transfer functions (MITFs): by calculating lead and lag cross correlations between innovations associated with the variables in the model, it is possible to determine which periods have the greatest effects on the dependent variable. If information about k periods ahead is required, fitted values for the expectation variables are used to generate k‐period‐ahead forecasts. These in turn can be used in the estimation of the transfer function equation, which not only contains the usual lagged variables but also allows for incorporation of lead‐fitted values for the expectation variables. The MITF identification and estimation procedures used are based on the corner method. The method is contrasted with the Almon distributed‐lag approach using a model relating stock market prices to interest rates and expected corporate profits.
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN DECISION THEORY
Authors: Evans James R. 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTThis paper explores linear programming‐like sensitivity analysis in decision theory. In particular, the paper considers the sensitivity of an optimal decision to changes in probabilities of the states of nature and the development of “confidence spheres” to bound arbitrary parametric changes in the probability vector. Such information can be used to assess the accuracy required in assigning probabilities and the confidence in the maximumutility decision.
A UNIFIED APPROACH TO THE PRICE‐BREAK ECONOMIC ORDER QUANTITY (EOQ) PROBLEM*
Authors: Das Chandrasekhar 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTIn many developing countries where supply is limited, a premium rather than a discounted price is paid for buying in larger amounts. In order for management science/operations research solutions to be relevant to developing economies, such realities need to be explicitly recognized and any decisions evaluated from that perspective. To illustrate this point, a typical inventory‐purchasing problem is solved. In the process, formulae are developed that introduce simultaneous price and quantity sensitivity into the inventory equation. A systematic procedure is suggested to locate the optimal order quantity for a given schedule of discounts or premiums.
POLICE PATROL BEAT DESIGN: ALLOCATION OF EFFORT AND EVALUATION OF EXPECTED PERFORMANCE*
Authors: Kwak N. K. , Leavitt Michael B. 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTThis paper describes an iterative process for deploying police patrol force manpower. An application of the process is described as a case study of the St. Louis County Police Department (Missouri). The application is based on the county geographic information system (COGIS) and uses the hypercube queuing model (HQM). The procedures presented illustrate the generation of performance characteristics associated with a specific beat deployment. The application results indicate that the iterative model presented is a reliable and valid instrument for allocating police patrols.
A MODEL FOR THE PREDICTION OF JUROR DECISIONS*
Authors: Zufryden Fred S. 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTA logit model approach designed to assign a probability whether prospective jurors will favor the defendant or plaintiff in a case, as a function of perceived individual juror characteristics, is described in the context of a case situation. The model, which has been programmed on a hand‐held computer, is designed for implementation in courtroom settings to help defense attorneys evaluate and select jurors in order to minimize the likelihood of large jury awards. Empirical tests of the model are also described.
THE EFFECT OF ESTIMATION RISK IN PERFORMING STOCHASTIC DOMINANCE EFFICIENCY TESTS
Authors: Ritchken Peter H. , Gupta Alok 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTIn many applications involving the construction of efficient sets, the parameters of the alternatives are estimated using small examples. As a result, inefficient alternatives may be included in the sample efficient set and efficient alternatives left out. This paper investigates the effects of estimation risk when there are more than two alternatives and limited information. The study reveals that estimation risk is a severe handicap to the practical implementation of stochastic dominance and mean‐variance efficiency analysis.
AN ANALYSIS OF CAPACITY PLANNING PROCEDURES FOR A MATERIAL REQUIREMENTS PLANNING SYSTEM*
Authors: Schmitt Thomas G. , Berry William L. , Vollmann Thomas E. 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTThis paper is concerned with planning work‐center capacity levels in manufacturing firms that employ a material requirements planning (MRP) system. It presents four procedures for developing work‐center capacity plans designed to insure the production of components and assemblies as specified by the MRP plan and the master production schedule (MPS). These procedures (capacity planning using overall factors, capacity bills, resource profiles, and capacity requirements planning) are compared using simulation analysis. The results indicate that the performance of a procedure when measured against the MPS depends on the operating conditions of the manufacturing system. The results also indicate that the choice of a particular procedure often represents a compromise among the benefits of improved MPS performance, the costs of preparing and processing data, and the premium expenses required for more frequent adjustments in work‐center capacity levels.
INDUSTRY CLASSIFICATION, ORDINAL DATA, AND BOND‐RATING DECISION MODELS
Authors: Perry Larry G. , Cronan Timothy P. , Henderson Glenn V. 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTThis paper studies the use of multiple discriminant analysis on industry‐classified, ranktransformed data to predict corporate bond ratings used in bond‐rating decision models. In addition to statistical advantages, agency descriptions of the rating process suggest such procedures are appropriate. The results of this study support that conclusion.
A NOTE ON DECISION‐MAKING CRITERIA FOR ALGORITHM SELECTION: REDUCING GOAL PROGRAMMING COMPUTATIONAL EFFORT
Authors: Schniederjans Marc J. 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTMost linear goal programming (LPG) algorithms are based on a simplex‐type solution method that begins with an initial simplex tableau with solution‐set variables (basic variables) consisting of all‐negative deviational variables or all‐positive deviational variables. This note (1) demonstrates how computational solution effort can be reduced by selecting the appropriate all‐negative or all‐positive deviational variable algorithm and (2) describes a procedure that can be used to aid decision makers in selecting the appropriate algorithm for all types of applied goal programming (GP) models. Results of this study reveal the procedure as accurate and providing computational time savings when applied to a large sample of GP problems.
Applications and Implementation A SEPARABLE PROGRAMMING APPROACH TO EXPECTED COVERAGE: AN APPLICATION TO AMBULANCE LOCATION
Authors: Saydam Cem , McKnew Mark 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTThe maximum expected covering location problem (MEXCLP) is reformulated using a separable programming approach. The resulting formulation—nonlinear maximum expected covering location problem (NMEXCLP)—guarantees optimality and also solves more quickly than previous heuristic approaches. NMEXCLP allows two important extensions. First, minor formulation changes allow the specification of the minimum number of times each node is to be covered in order to satisfy expected coverage criteria. Second, coverage matrices can be constructed that consider two different types of coverage simultaneously. Both extensions are useful for ambulance location problems and are demonstrated in that setting.
COMMENTS ON “COST INCREASES DUE TO DEMAND UNCERTAINTY IN MRP LOT SIZING”: A VERIFICATION OF ORDERING PROBABILITIES
Authors: Wemmerlüv Urban 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTIn a recent article in this journal, De Bodt and Van Wassenhove [1] presented analytic derivations related to lot‐sizing behavior under uncertainty. Although their models appear to have been verified in the aggregate by simulation experiments, detailed justifications for several of the derivations are missing. The present paper looks at De Bodt and Van Wassenhove's analysis and provides verifications of (and corrections to) the ordering probabilities and order cycles used by the authors to estimate the cost effects of forecast errors in the particular operating environment studied. The probabilities simulated in this study also generate additional insight into the “system nervousness” caused by lot‐sizing and forecast errors.
A NOTE ON OPTIMAL PORTFOLIO SELECTION UNDER STABLE PARETIAN DISTRIBUTIONS*
Authors: Cheung C. Sherman , Kwan Clarence C. Y. , Yip Patrick C. Y. 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTElton, Gruber, and Padberg's [2] [3] ranking procedure and Kwan's [6] nonranking procedure for optimal portfolio selection lead to the same solution. This is because of a particular functional property of the cutoff rate for security performance. In this note, the robustness of that functional property is demonstrated the normality of security returns assumed in the above studies is relaxed to encompass the general family of stable Paretian distributions. The proof here is an important step toward portfolio analysis using some multiindex models when securities cannot be ranked.
A LOWER BOUND FOR THE SINGLE‐LEVEL DYNAMIC HORIZON LOT‐SIZING PROBLEM
Authors: Karni Reuven 
Published: June 2007

AbstractConventional production planning methods assume the existence of a medium‐ or longrange demand horizon. However, demand usually is known over a much shorter range; scheduling decisions must be made within this “decision window,” which rolls forward in time. This paper presents a new lower bound for lot‐sizing heuristics in a rolling‐horizon framework and compares it to the well‐known Wagner‐Whitin bound. The new bound indicates heuristic schedules that have costs close to the optimum. Rolling‐horizon schedule costs are compared to corresponding static‐horizon schedule costs (assuming the whole horizon is known in advance), using the ratio of decision‐window size to the natural order cycle as a parameter. For values below unity, the rolling‐horizon policy is significantly more costly. For values above one, the two policies have similar costs and actually converge as the parameter value increases.
ASSESSMENT OF MULTIATTRIBUTED MEASURABLE VALUE AND UTILITY FUNCTIONS VIA MATHEMATICAL PROGRAMMING*
Authors: Klein Gary , Moskowitz Herbert , Mahesh Sathiadev , Ravindran A. 
Published: June 2007

AbstractA major restriction on the use of decision analysis in practice is the frequent difficulty of determining a decision maker's multiattribute utility function. The assessment process can be complex and tedious and generally involves: (1) identifying relevant independence conditions, (2) assessing conditional utility functions, (3) assessing scaling constants, and (4) checking for consistency. Some of the assessment and modeling complexities encountered include an assessor's inability to respond in a quantitatively meaningful and consistent way to hypothetical gambles and an analyst's problem in selecting an appropriate functional form that accurately characterizes the conditional utility assessments. A simplified procedure that mitigates these difficulties is proposed. This procedure facilitates the determination of scaling constants by obtaining (via mathematical programming) a multiattributed measurable value function which is converted to a multiattributed utility function. The methodology can be developed advantageously to produce an interactive software package for use as an assessment aid.
Concepts, Theory, and Techniques INFLATION, MAINTENANCE OF CAPITAL, AND THE IRR MODEL OF CAPITAL BUDGETING*
Authors: Agrawal Surendra P. 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTBusinesses operating under inflationary conditions need capital‐budgeting models that help them judge the adequacy of returns on their investments and also allow them to keep capital intact by considering the erosive effects of inflation. The model proposed in this paper computes a modified internal rate of return (IRR); if cash inflows from a project are divided between earnings and recovery of capital, total recovery equals that amount which the capital‐budgeting concept adopted by the business specifies (such as the original investment in constant dollars or its replacement cost). Under this model, a project should be accepted only if this computed rate equals or exceeds a hurdle rate that consists of the inflation‐free rate of return plus the effect of inflation on such a return. Other modifications to the IRR model suggested in the literature do not completely satisfy the objective of capital budgeting under inflationary conditions.
JUDGMENT POLICIES USED IN ASSESSING ENTERPRISE‐ZONE ECONOMIC SUCCESS CRITERIA*
Authors: Miesing Paul , Dandridge Thomas C. 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTThis paper reports on a study of the issue relationships and priorities used by public officials in making local economic‐development policy decisions. Economic success criteria for evaluating distressed areas were compared and were found to vary in importance among officials. Policy bases of expert judges were determined. Their differences, as well as the implications of including this type of knowledge in the decision‐making process, are discussed. Recommendations for a more detailed understanding of the public‐policy decision process in economic development, through the use of a policy‐capture approach, are made.
Concepts, Theory, and Techniques THE LOT‐SIZE REORDER‐POINT MODEL WITH UPSTREAM‐DOWNSTREAM UNCERTAINTY*
Authors: Noori A. Hamid , Keller Gerald 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTOne assumption in the classical lot‐size problem is certainty in the amount requisitioned. In many practical situations, however, the amount received may be a random variable. In this paper, we discuss a lot‐size inventory problem in which the quantity received does not necessarily match the quantity requisitioned. We develop explicit and approximate solutions for the back‐orders case by assuming that the standard deviation of the amount received is linearly related to the quantity requisitioned.
Applications and Implementation A SIMULATION STUDY OF THE RELATIVE EFFECTIVENESS OF ALTERNATIVE ANALYTICAL REVIEW PROCEDURES*
Authors: Knechel W. Robert 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTThis paper evaluates the effectiveness of various analytical review (AR) procedures in detecting material errors in account balances. The study tested nine nonstatistical AR procedures based on common heuristic and ratio analyses and four AR procedures based on regression analysis. Simulated account balances were seeded with various magnitudes of errors and each AR procedure was used to detect the errors. It was found that the regression approaches tended to have fewer Type I and Type II errors than other AR procedures.
TRANSFER‐PRICING AND OUTPUT DECISIONS: THE DYNAMIC INTERACTION
Authors: Jensen Oscar W. 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTThis paper is concerned with the dynamic interactions between output and transferprice decisions in a three‐country model for a multinational firm when profits taxation and ad valorem tariffs are applied simultaneously. A numerical example is used to illustrate that the three‐country model modifies considerably conclusions reached in the traditional two‐country, two‐goods framework.
AN EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT OF COMPUTER‐ASSISTED DECISION ANALYSIS*
Authors: Aldag Ramon J. , Power Daniel J. 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTDecision analysis tools often are used in semistructured and ill‐structured situations. While some researchers have argued that computerized decision analysis programs may improve decision quality in such situations, research support for this assertion is weak.In this laboratory study, business students used a computerized decision‐analysis program with short strategic‐management cases to prepare decision reports. Independent raters' perceptions of aided and unaided decision performance were contrasted, attitudes of students toward the program were assessed, individual differences were correlated with attitudes, and the program's impact on students' perceptions of their decision processes and performance was examined.Student attitudes toward the computerized aid were favorable, and individual differences in reactions generally were as predicted. However, the program did not improve the independent ratings of students' decision reports and recommendations.These findings suggest that computerized decision aids should be adopted cautiously. If such aids result in positive user affect and heightened decision confidence without corresponding improvements in decision quality, they may be dysfunctional. Rigorous research methodologies which incorporate independent evaluations of analyses and decisions are recommended for use in future research on computerized decision‐analysis programs.
A NOTE ON HOLDING COSTS AND LOT‐SIZE ERRORS
Authors: Brown Robert M. , Conine Thomas E. , Tamarkin Maurry 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTThis note examines the sensitivity of the basic economic‐order‐quantity inventory model to lot‐size errors when holding costs are assumed to be a strictly increasing (though not necessarily linear) function of average inventory. In particular, we show that the penalty associated with ordering either too much or too little is a function not only of the size of the error but of the shape of the holding‐cost curve as well. We demonstrate that, under certain conditions, even relatively small lot‐size errors can be extremely costly.
RANK GENERATION, PRESERVATION, AND REVERSAL IN THE ANALYTIC HIERARCHY DECISION PROCESS
Authors: Saaty Thomas L. 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTDecision making has the objective of finding the best alternative or set of alternatives by considering a number of goals, objectives, criteria, competitors, and other important factors. The analytic hierarchy process is a decision aid used to assist a decision maker in sorting out the complexity of a decision problem and making use of his or her judgments. A decision maker must be assured that the arithmetic operations of any such decision process are the right ones—that they surface the correct ranking and values of the alternatives and preserve or alter ranks appropriately when new alternatives are added or deleted. In this paper it will be shown that with absolute measurement, rank always is preserved, with relative measurement, rank changes with nspect to scveral criteria only because of the structural dependence (involving both numbers and measurements) of criteria on alternatives. A discussion of the effect on rank of replicas and near replicas of the alternatives also is given.
DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS FOR ILL‐STRUCTURED PROBLEMS: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY
Authors: Cats‐Baril William L. , Huber George P. 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTDecision support systems (DSSs) are more complex than most other traditional decision‐aid systems. For what types of problems are they more effective, and what design characteristics make them more effective? The laboratory experiment reported here examined the effect of three design characteristics of these systems in the context of decision makers faced with ill‐structured problems. The characteristics were presence or absence of decision‐aid heuristics, degree of interaction between the user and the system, and whether or not the system was computerized. The dependent variables were (1) quality of user performance, (2) user productivity of ideas, (3) user confidence in the quality of his/her performance, (4) user satisfaction with the decision aid or support system, (5) changes in user attitude toward the problem addressed, and (6) changes in user attitude toward computers.Use of heuristics and increased interaction had positive effects on decision quality, user productivity, and attitude toward computers; they had negative effects on user confidence, satisfaction, and attitude toward the problem addressed. Whether or not the system was computerized did not have a significant effect on any dependent variable. The findings concerning negative effects, in particular, suggest the need for research on the design of heuristics for addressing ill‐structured problems—heuristics that will deliver the positive but not the negative effects observed in this study. The findings also suggest the need for research on how to benefit from computers in the context of solving ill‐structured problems.
AN EXPERT SYSTEM APPLICATION FOR DECISION SUPPORT IN LAW ENFORCEMENT
Authors: Vedder Richard G. , Mason Richard O. 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTExpert systems offer promise for decision‐making support in stressful circumstances such as those that occur when law enforcement officials respond to hostage‐taking incidents. These are life‐or‐death situations in which the costs of decision error are enormous.This paper reports on an expert system being developed and tested to aid police decision makers in hostage‐taking incidents. Knowledge is represented by rules embedded in an incident‐based decision‐tree network. Four different decision makers who have similar but distinct information needs are supported and their efforts are coordinated by the system, which must function in real time as the crisis unfolds. Clear, concise, highly focused dialogue is required at the user interface since frequently only seconds are available in which to make a decision and implement it.
USING ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE TECHNIQUES TO ENHANCE THE CAPABILITIES OF MODEL MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS
Authors: Elam Joyce J. , Konsynski Benn 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTDecision Support Systems (DSSs) originally were proposed as interactive problem‐solving vehicles through which models and analytical techniques could be made available to decision makers. Model management represents a line of research within the DSS field that focuses on the design and implementation of software environments to support the use of DSSs for this purpose. This paper describes the tasks that must be supported within these environments and illustrates how existing prototype Model Management Systems (MMSs) implementations provide this support. The use of artificial intelligence techniques in such implementations are reveiwed, and three scenarios are presented to show how future MMSs could be constructed using these techniques.
Applications and Implementation: AN EXPERIMENTAL COMPARISON OF CELLULAR (GROUP TECHNOLOGY) LAYOUT WITH PROCESS LAYOUT
Authors: Flynn Barbara B. , Jacobs F. Robert 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTThis study compares different strategies for arranging machines in a facility. Computer simulation of two different machine shops was used to compare process layout (the arrangement of groups of machines where the machines within a group are interchangeable) to cellular layout designed using group technology concepts (the use of manufacturing cells where each cell contains different types of machines dedicated to the production of similar parts). Four layout strategies, including process layout, cellular layout, and two hybrid layouts, were compared in two machine‐shop models. The shops that used cellular layouts had shorter setup times, lower machine utilization, and shorter distances traveled, on average. The shops with process layout, however, had better performance on queue‐related statistics such as work‐in‐process inventory level and average flow time. This suggests that a well‐organized traditional job shop may be able to achieve overall performance that at least is comparable to that of the same shop using cellular (group technology) layout.