bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Assessment of Western North Pacific 96- and 120-h Track Guidance and Present Forecastability
Authors: Payne Kathryn A. , Elsberry Russell L. , Boothe Mark A. 
Published: October 2007

Abstract
Because the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has only four dynamical models for guidance in making 96- and 120-h track forecasts, an opportunity exists for improving the consensus forecast by the proper removal of a likely erroneous forecast to form a selective consensus (SCON). Forecast fields from all four models [the U.S. Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS), the U.S. Navy version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model (GFDN), the Met Office (UKMO) model, and the Global Forecast System (GFS)] were available during the 2005 western North Pacific season to evaluate for the first time the error mechanisms leading to large track errors. As shown previously for the NOGAPS and GFDN models during the 2004 season, error sources related to the midlatitude circulations accounted for about 90% of all large 120-h track errors by all four models during the 2005 season. This dominance of midlatitude-related error source is a major shift from the 72-h errors, which include more errors related to tropical circulations. In the GFS model, 95% of the large errors occurred because of an incorrect depiction of the vertical structure of the tropical cyclone. A systematic error in the GFDN model was identified in which a false anticyclogenesis was predicted downstream of the Tibetan Plateau, which accounted for over 50% of the large GFDN track errors. The consensus spread versus consensus error relationship is examined to isolate those 20%–25% of cases with large spreads and large errors that are candidates for forming an SCON. If the model tracks that contributed to the large errors are eliminated, the average improvement of the SCON forecasts relative to the nonselective consensus is 222 (239) n mi during 2005 (2004), and the corresponding average improvement relative to the JTWC forecasts is 382 (203) n mi. This application of SCON is considered the potential “forecastability” in that it represents the optimum use of the present numerical guidance for consensus forecasting.
A Five-Year Climatology of Elevated Severe Convective Storms in the United States East of the Rocky Mountains
Authors: Horgan Katherine L. , Schultz David M. , Hales John E. , Corfidi Stephen F. , Johns Robert H. 
Published: October 2007

Abstract
A 5-yr climatology of elevated severe convective storms was constructed for 1983–87 east of the Rocky Mountains. Potential cases were selected by finding severe storm reports on the cold side of surface fronts. Of the 1826 days during the 5-yr period, 1689 (91%) had surface fronts east of the Rockies. Of the 1689 days with surface fronts, 129 (8%) were associated with elevated severe storm cases. Of the 1066 severe storm reports associated with the 129 elevated severe storm cases, 624 (59%) were hail reports, 396 (37%) were wind reports, and 46 (4%) were tornado reports. A maximum of elevated severe storm cases occurred in May with a secondary maximum in September. Elevated severe storm cases vary geographically throughout the year, with a maximum over the south-central United States in winter to a central and eastern U.S. maximum in spring and summer. A diurnal maximum of elevated severe storm cases occurred at 2100 UTC, which coincided with the diurnal maximum of hail reports. The wind reports had a broad maximum during the daytime. Because the forecasting of hail from elevated storms typically does not pose as significant a forecast challenge as severe wind for forecasters and tornadoes from elevated storms are relatively uncommon, this study focuses on the occurrence of severe wind from elevated storms. Elevated severe storm cases that produce only severe wind reports occurred roughly 5 times a year. To examine the environments associated with cases that produced severe winds only, five cases were examined in more detail. Common elements among the five cases included elevated convective available potential energy, weak surface easterlies, and shallow near-surface stable layers (less than 100 hPa thick).
A Probability Model for Verifying Deterministic Forecasts of Extreme Events
Authors: Ferro Christopher A. T. 
Published: October 2007

AbstractThis article proposes a method for verifying deterministic forecasts of rare, extreme events defined by exceedance above a high threshold. A probability model for the joint distribution of forecasts and observations, and based on extreme-value theory, characterizes the quality of forecasting systems with two key parameters. This enables verification measures to be estimated for any event rarity and helps to reduce the uncertainty associated with direct estimation. Confidence regions are obtained and the method is used to compare daily precipitation forecasts from two operational numerical weather prediction models.
The Bureaucracy in Pressure Politics
Authors: Freeman J. Leiper 
Published: October 2007

Public administrative agencies in many ways re semble and behave like pressure groups. They not only ad minister laws, but they attempt to influence public opinion and legislative action, promoting the interests of their members and of related groups. General statutory regulations do not re strict them noticeably in this regard, although in some impor tant ways the Chief Executive does, especially through budg etary, personnel, and other organizational controls. Never theless, public bureaucracies enjoy considerable autonomy to propose public policies and promote their adoption. By day-to-day liaison with legislators, avenues are kept open for administrative lobbying. Most crucial in the legislative ac tivities of executive agencies is their strategic work with com mittees considering bills in the legislature. Among the critical kinds of support which may be mobilized here are executive superiors, employees, and clientele. Also, by elaborating their administrative structure, bureaucracies enlist the interest and participation of influential citizens as advisors and sponsors. Additionally, bureaucracies may bring pressure to bear upon legislators through the exercise of administrative discretion. Finally, in the publicity arena, bureaucrats have certain privi leged positions, although they may invite legislative reprisals through overzealous propagandizing.
The Growth of Crime in the United States
Authors: Pepinsky Harold E. 
Published: October 2007

The growth of crime in the United States has been viewed as a social problem since the founding of the Republic. From at least the middle of the nineteenth century, this growth can be explained as an outcome of the development of crime measurement technology. American crime measurement specialists have consistently operated under a pair of assumptions: that crime is underreported rather than overreported in crime statistics and that rates of crime generally increase. These assumptions have be come the foundation of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Efforts have been devoted to detecting larger rates of crime by using each measure that has been developed, and new measures have continued to be created to supplement the old. Recently, for instance, police departments "refined" their procedures for compiling offense reports, so rates of offenses known to the police climbed dramatically. And the victim survey was developed to supplement police data, with the victim data interpreted as indicating that crime rates are increasing far faster than we had previously imagined. It is proposed that those engaged in crime measurement be given incentives to report fewer offenses. Otherwise, regardless of change in the level of interpersonal conflict in American society, the prophecy of American crime mea surement specialists can be expected to continue to fulfill itself, with an unabated growth of crime.
Health Policy: The Need for Governance
Authors: Mead Lawrence M. 
Published: October 2007

Health policy must accept public control of the health care system, and the resulting political dilemmas, if the health cost crisis is to be resolved. Public governance is one way of achieving order and rationality in health—that is, controlling the health sector and allocating social resources to it optimally. These goals are not achieved now, because of a system of insured, fee-for-service financing, in which actors need not balance the overall benefits of care against their cost. In theory, control could be achieved by either delegating care and spending decisions to health professionals or by mar ket allocation. But for fundamental as well as practical reasons, neither of these mechanisms has restrained costs adequately. Hence, explicit public control seems inevitable. Federal health policy has moved toward it. Success will depend on resolving the resulting political tensions. Governance re quires continual wrestling with provider and patient inter ests in which there can be no clear standards for the correct course of action. Public control should be structured to facilitate resolution of these tensions. Public utility approaches tend to accord the providers too much autonomy; radical political reforms, too little. European experience suggests that a combination of central budget control with decentralized administration may be the best way to achieve order and rationality in health.
Sociological Criminology and Models of Juvenile Delinquency and Maladjustment
Authors: Szabo Denis 
Published: October 2007

The aim of this paper is to review and reinter pret the contemporary literature on juvenile delinquency by classifying it according to two explanatory models called the "consensual" and "conflictual" models. The consensual model considers the social system as a general framework of interactions structured in a homeostatic system, while the conflictual model sees it as a system of unresolvable conflicts between its component elements. Methodological and theoretical correlates of the two models are outlined, based on the general sociological literature; the relevant research on juvenile delinquency is summarized and analyzed according to its ties or affinities to one or the other model. Studies on ecology, social organizations, subcultures, social regulation and control are included in the consensual model; research on hidden delinquency and dark numbers, on deviance as opposed to delinquence, on existential contexts and meaningful acts as opposed to legally defined conduct are included in the conflictual model. For both models, the impact on social policy and practice is discussed.
Silk Degumming
Authors: Ougen O.A. 
Published: October 2007

The theory of silk degumming developed in Part II is applied to practical conditions of boiling-off silk hosiery. About 80 tests were conducted on 10 pound lots totaling over 1000 dozen pairs of stockings, besides tests on loads up to 500 pounds each. Operating conditions employed in boiling-off hosiery are reviewed. At 200° F., with a water ratio of 20 to 1, in a reciprocating drum on 98 denier silk soaked in a soluble sulphonated oil, the values of k for different alkalies and for soap were found to be as follows: ( Values of the degumming coefficient, k1, on the pound basis are given for comparison.) k k, Reagent (equivalent basis) (pound basis) Soap .01 Normal..... 184 .605 .02 " ..... 152 .500 .04 " ..... 104 .342 .06 " ..... 71 .233 .08 " ..... 49 .161 .10 " ..... 33 .108 Sodium hydroxide..... 144 3.60 Sodium carbonate..... 121 2.27 Sodium silicates Ratio of SiO2/Na2O %Na 2O 1.0 10.5 175 .595 1.63 19.4 164 1.025 2.62 29.9 101 .975 3.73 8.9 61 .175 Trisodium phosphate..... 51 .400 Borax..... 28 .147 Sodium bicarbonate..... 25 .298 For soap solutions log10 k = 2.236 - 8.21 N0 where No is the initial normality. The most rapid rate of degumming in soap occurs at a normality of 1/(2.3) (8.21) = .053 N. Values of k vary inversely with the 3/4-power of yarn denierage. The temperature coefficient of k was enormous, increasing three-fold from 180° to 200° F. and may be represented by the equation In k =— 20900//T + b where T is in degree Rankine. An increase in agitation increases the value of k, due to an increased rate of diffusion. For a given rate of rotation the coefficient k seems to be independent of the size of machine. Values of k were 30% higher for yarns soaked in a soluble sulphonated oil than when soaked in a soap-fixed oil combination. Values of k seemed highest for a loading of one pound of stock to 20 pounds of water. Correction factors for temperature and yarn size are given, also the time schedule for boilind-off hosiery with different concentrations of soap and sodium carbonate.
Two-Tone Dyeing as Related to the Shape and Size of Silk Filaments
Authors: Mennerich Fred A. , Hougen O.A. 
Published: October 2007

The results of a previous investigation by the authors have been confirmed. It has been established that the size and shape of silk filaments are characteristic for different breeds of silk worms and that differences in size and shape account for a most troublesome cause of two-tone dyeing which cannot be oorrected by chemical treatment. 1. Differences in shape (diameter ratio) cause two-tone dyeing. 2. Differences in size ( mean diameter) cause two-tone dyeing. 3. The larger filaments dye darker. 4. The flatter filaments dye darker. Two-tone dyeing becomes noticeable when the difference in diameter ratio (shape) exceeds .03 and difference in mean diameter (size) exceeds 0.7 micron. In grading 40 ten-bale lots of raw silk according to filament shape and size, two-thirds were sufficiently uniform to show no two-tone dyeing within ten-bale lots, and one-quarter were sufficiently uniform to show no two-tone dyeing within or among ten-bale lots.
Micro-Analysis of Textile Fibres
Authors: Osborne G. Gordon 
Published: October 2007

The recent work on the actual structure of kemp has proven the following: First, that there is a definite scale formation on the surface of the ftbre completely encasing it. In all respects this is similar to wool. In themselves, however, the scales are smootlaer in surface and less jagged in edge; they are less prominent, in their projection from the fibre, both in length and angle; nor do they overlap to the extent common in wool. Second, in cross-section the fibre is strikingly different. Scale and outer casing are the same; the interior of the fibre, however, is just the reverse of normal wool. In kemp the cortical layer is extremely small, whereas in wool it forms the major portion of the fibre. In both, this layer appears as a hontogeneovs mass, though in reality it is formed by myriads of tightly-packed and closely-cemented spindle- cells. In some wools a fine medulla forms a core through the centre of the cortex, Third, it is this medulla that comprises the major part of, and is the distinguishing aspect of a kemp fabre. It is cellular in composition, the cells being spaced without break throughout the fibre. They are irregular in size and outline and are arranged in similar order to the cells in a honey-comb. This medulla in true kemp is the prod-net of a special group of cells in the root (is annular in growth) and therefore can scarcely be considered an abnormality. The murch greater reflection from kemp (due to the air filled ineditlla) is the cause of the difference observed after dyeing. In reality, however, it has been shown by removing the air that kemp and wool are almost eqacally dyed; penetration and affinity being very similar.
Alkaline Degradation of Wool Keratin
Authors: Barr Mildred , Edgar Rachel 
Published: October 2007

1. Alkaline degradation of wool keratin by 0.02 to 0.25 N sodium hydroxide in 10 hours at 25°, 40°, and 55° C. has been followed by weight, nitrogen, sulfur, and wet breaking strength of the residual wool. 2. Weight of wool has been shown to deerease with increasing temperature and almost lincarly with increasing concentration of alkali. 3. Nitrogen, sulfur, and the ratio of sulfur to nitrogen in wool have been shown logarithmic functions, y = axB, of the concentration of alkali and to decrease with increasing temperature. 4. Ratio of dissolved to residual sulfur of wool kcratin has been shown greater the greater the temperature or concentration of alkali. 5. Rcsidual wool from alkaline degradation has been shown to decrease in sulfur and to increase slowly in nitrogen with increasing concentration of alkali.
A Critical Study of Cotton Manufacturing Processes
Authors: Lee R.L. 
Published: October 2007

Doubling does improve uniformity of counts of cotton strands. Graphs of the average of 6-inch lengths of sliver taken from random spots show that number irregularity is decreased as the strands are doubled through successive manufacturing processes. The combinations of the weights of the random spots according to the cans (sliver) from which they were taken show much less spread around the mean of the mass after having been doubled through each successive process. These results are mathematically logical. Results indicate that doubling also decreases the variability of cotton strands within short distances. Calculated or expected "after doubling" variability was determined by dividing the "before doubling" variability by the square root of the number of strands doubled. Correlations between the actual and the expected results are very high, and indicate that the degree of reduction in variability by doubling is equal to the reciprocal of the square root of the number of strands doubled.
Small Firms'Investment: A Search Four the Motivations
Authors: Hankinson Alan 
Published: October 2007

Dr. Alan Hankinson is Reader in Business Studies at the Dorset Institute of Higher Education, England. This paper reports on the results of a study which examined the motivations and weaknesses behind investment decision making by 52 small engineering firms in the South Wessex region of the United Kingdom. The results showed that in the main small firms actually chose to ignore and even avoid certain opportunities to reach the highest attainable return on investment, indicating endemic investment weaknesses within the small engineering firm. Dr. Alan Hankinson est professeur en Business Studies a l'Institut d'Etudes Sup6rieures du Dorset, Angleterre. Cet article rend compte des resultats d'une 6tude qui a examine les motivations et les faiblesses derriere la prise de decision concernant les investissements faite par 52 petites entreprises d'engineering dans la region du sud Wessex du Royaume Uni. Les resultats ont montr6 que, en grande partie, les petites entreprises choisissent en fait d'ignorer et meme d'eviter certaines opportunit6s pour atteindre le plus haut rendement des investissements possible, indiquant des faiblesses endemiques dans les investissements au sein de la petite entreprise d'engineering. El Dr. Alan Hankinson es profesor de Comercio en el Instituto de Educacion Superior de Dorset, Inglaterra. El presente trabajo reporta los resultados de un estudio que trata sobre determinadas motivaciones y debilidades inherentes a las tomas de decisiones Ilevadas a cabo por 52 pequenas empresas de ingenieria en la region South Wessex del Reino Unido. Los citados resultados demostraron que de hecho las principales pequeinas empresas preferian ignorar, e incluso evitar, ciertas oportunidades de alcanzar los mas elevados rendimientos en las inversiones, revelando una endemica debilidad inversora dentro de las pequenas empresas de ingenierla. Dr. Alan Hankinson ist Dozent in Betriebswirtschaftslehre an dem Dorset Institute of Higher Education, England. Diese Abhandlung berichtet uber die Ergebnisse einer Studie, welche die Motivierungen und Schwachen in der Investierungs-entscheidungsnahme von 52 kleinen Maschinenbaufirmen in der South Wessex Region von England untersuchte. Die Ergebnisse zeigten, dal3 die kleinen Firmen im allgemeinen tatsachlich bewulft bestimmte M6glichkeiten, den bestmoglichen Anlagegewinn ignorierten und sogar vermieden, und damit lokale Anlageschwachen innerhalb der kleinen Maschinenbaufirmen aufzeigten.
SMEs and Public Authorities: On the Information and Communication Gap
Authors: Donckels Rik , Degadt Jan 
Published: October 2007

Rik Donckels is the director of the SME Research Institute, UFSAL University College, Brussels, Belgium. Jan Degadt is a senior researcher at the same institute. In the first part of the paper, some theoretical considerations are given. Public authorities are considered as being a multi-dimensional component of the external environment. The distance problem between SMEs on the one hand and public authorities on the other hand is described, and attention is paid to the existing communication lines and information flows. The second part of the paper is based on empirical research for Belgium, the results of which are compared to findings for other countries. The bottom-up communication line from SMEs to public authorities comes first. Afterwards the top-down communication line is studied. In the last section of the paper some conclusions can be found. The most important conclusions are: -SMEs and PAs should make special efforts to shorten the distance between them and to bridge the communication and information gap. -There is a need for a standardised "Bank of SME-knowledge" on an international scale. -The administration burden involved by information gathering by PAa is considered to be annoying and a rather unproductive type of work. SME-people ask for a feedback relevant to them and useful for their particular business. -The information-awareness of SME-managers should be increased. There is no systematic search for information and the attitude towards information varies as a function of the individual characteristics of the entrepreneur, the content of the information and the dimension of the firm. -Bridging the communication and information gap is also a matter of how to procure information and how to ask for data. The diffusion of modern communication techniques will go on. One has to take advantage from this evolution in order to increase effectivity and efficiency as well. There is a need for a fundamental change, which is to be based on personal motivation, insight, education and training.
Stress and The Entrepreneurial Role
Authors: Williams Alan 
Published: October 2007

Alan J. Williams, Professor of Management and foundation Head of the Department of Management at the University of Newcastle, N.S.W., Australia, has a background of 15 years active involvement in small business management development. The paper is based on a study of the relationship between perceived stress and business performance of samples of failed small firm owner/managers and of owners of operating firms which were approaching failure. The research addresses two questions: 1) is the quality of an individual's entrepreneurial performance (in a small business context) related to his capacity to cope with stress emanating from the many and varied stressors in that role? (Results indicate a statistically significant relationship); and, 2) what relationship exists between stress level and the temporal proximity of business failure? In essence, the focal issue is: is stress a potential cause of small business failure, or a consequence of that failure? (Results showed that stress levels prior to small business failure were significantly higher than after failure; stress levels tended to increase significantly with increasing proximity and probability of failure, and they decreased significantly after failure.) Stress generated by a mix of factors inherent in the small business ownership role can seriously inhibit effective management and entrepreneurship. It is widely associated with business failure; its specific causes and consequences are worthy of further research.