bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Qualité de l'expérience et intelligence pratique: la validité croissante des connaissances tacites à la prédiction du rendement au travail
Authors: Barrette Jacques , Durivage André 
Published: January 2008

La présente recherche visait à vérifier plusieurs hypothèses dérivées de la théorie de l'intelligence pratique en utilisant une mesure de connaissances dites tacites auprès de conseillers en produits et services financiers dans une institution financière. L'étude porte sur les hypothèses avancées par Wagner et Sternberg (1985) voulant (a) que les connaissances tacites s'accroissent avec la qualité de l'expérience de travail et (b) que par rapport à l'aptitude de raisonnement logique, la mesure des connaissances tacites apporte une validité croissante dans la prédiction du rendement au travail. Quatre groupes de sujets de différents niveaux qualitatifs d'expérience sont impliqués soit des candidats, des novices, des juniors et des seniors. L'étude montre (a) que seuls les candidats et les novices obtiennent des résultats distincts des seniors et (b) que l'aptitude au raisonnement logique explique 12% de la variance du rendement de travail et la mesure des connaissances tacites compte pour 18% additionnel.The goal is to test hypotheses regarding practical intelligence, using tacit knowledge as a measure of ability for the position of financial products and services advisor in a financial institution. The hypotheses tested were those of Wagner and Sternberg (1985), which propose (a) that tacit knowledge increases with quality of work experience, and (b) that with respect to cognitive ability for logical reasoning, a measure of tacit knowledge will add incremental validity to the prediction of work outcome. Subjects were divided into four groups according to their quality of work experience: applicants, novices, juniors and seniors. According to the study (a) only applicants' and novices' results are different from seniors' results and (b) the test of logical reasoning accounts for 12% of the variance in work performance, and the measure of tacit knowledge for another 18%.
Monetary Targets and the World Economy
Authors: BUDD A. , BURNS T. , DAVIS R. , DICKS G. 
Published: January 2008

The dominant obsessions to watchers of the world economy at the moment are the weakness of the US dollar and the fear that the world economy is stagnating. In this ‘Briefing Paper’ we seek to put both events into the same intellectual framework, and to show that they are the consequence of monetary policies which are not logically related to each other, nor to a common objective of bringing world inflation steadily down to an acceptable level. Specifically, the US ‐ which for reasons outlined below can warrant monetary growth rather below the world average if it is to preserve some dollar stability ‐ is showing an above average outturn in its monetary aggregates. Germany and Japan, which can accommodate increases well above the average, are in fact adopting monetary targets which are leading to exchange rate appreciation, arid a reduction in both countries' expectations for real growth.The dangers for the world economy in this situation are very serious, particularly at a time when further dollar devaluation could be risky both from the viewpoint of US inflation wide the dollar's role as the key reserve asset. It could lead at worst to US protectionism and a monetaryled recession, rein forcing the slow growth rates already being widely predicted in 1978 for many other industrial countries. However, we show in this ‘Briefing Paper’ that this is not a necessity outcome of the present situation, given three vital perceptions. The first, required by statesmen as much as by technicians. is that the recent stagnation in European & Japanese output and exchange rate instability are essentially a monetary phenomenon, requiring essentially monetary (rather than fiscal) remedies. The second is acceptance of the need and practicability of some monetary consignation, based on reasonably common objectives among the major countries regarding inflation, bands for exchange rate movement and red rates of growth. the third, at the most practical level, is agreement on the actual monetary numbers which broadly reconcile these objectives and also take account of the very different ‘unwanted’ rates of monetary growth between countries which reflect their different underlying conditions of output, productivity and demand for money.It is the (ambitious) aim of this ‘Briefing Paper’ to substantiate these perceptions and to provide the numbers mound which a consideration of monetary policies can be framed. The numbers are necessarily based on trends established over a number of years and need to be supplemented by detailed understanding of each country's financial status But the monetary targets provided do, in our judgement, embody trade‐offs between inflation, growth and exchange rate movements which should broadly satisfy national ambitions, and reset the world economy on a worthwhile growth path during 1978 or 1979.
The London Business School with Gower Publishing
Authors: Dicks Geoffrey 
Published: January 2008

The first clear signs of the economic downturn are now emerging in the United States which is officially recognised to be in recession. Over the last four years economic events in the US have preceded similar developments elsewhere in the industrial world by some 6–9 months. We see no break in this pattern and expect the recession to become general by the end of the year. In the next 12 months we forecast that world industrial production will fall by 5 per cent. In 1974‐75 the equivalent figure was 12 per cent as all countries contracted in unison. In 1980 the contraction is expected to be concentrated in the US where policy has been sharply reversed. In other countries, where economic expansion has been underway for a shorter period of time and where inflation is probably less entrenched, the recession could be mild and short. In the US however recession could easily be more severe than in 1975.SummaryIn the first quarter of 1980 world output, prices (including oil prices) and money supply were all rather higher than we expected at the time of our last “World Outlook” upwards. We now expect world output to rise by about 1/2 per cent between 1979 and 1980, money supply by a little over 10 per cent, and prices by nearly 15 per cent at the wholesale stage and 11 per cent at the consumer stage.
Comment:The Statistical Relationship between the Money Supply and the Public Sector Borrowing Requirement
Authors: BEENSTOCK MICHAEL , LONGBOTTOM ANDREW 
Published: January 2008

The ControversyA controversy has recently broken out as to whether the PSBR influences the money supply in the UK. Clearly if this relationship does not exist much of the basis of the government's macroeconomic strategy falls away since the government is acting on the assumption that by controlling the PSBR it will be able to control money supply growth and hence inflation in the medium term. This argument has been forcibly stated in the recent Green Paper on Monetary Control (Cmnd 7858) and is enshrined in the Medium‐term Financial Strategy that was announced in the March Budget.
Introducing the supply side into the LBS Model
Authors: HOLLY SEAN 
Published: January 2008

This Briefing Paper describes a new version of the London Business School model, which incorporates our most recent research on the supply side. The changes reflect the desire to improve the specification of the supply‐side of the model, and to capture the effects of taxes on the incentives to save, invest and to work, while still retaining the basic features of the income‐expenditure framework. The main features of the new model are: ‐ Gross domestic product is determined as the sum of the outputs of five sectors. Previously GDP was determined by the demand side as the sum of the expenditure components. ‐ Domestic demand for the output of the private sector depends on domestic absorption and on the price of this output relative to import prices. Overseas demand for exports depends on world economic activity and on the price of exports relative to the world price of exports. ‐ Supply depends on the capital stock, real unit labour costs and real raw material prices. In the short run, input prices are allowed to affect the mix between goods which are exported and those which are supplied to the domestic market. In the long run, however, the mix depends only on the price of exports relative to the price of domestically supplied goods (i.e., relative profitability). ‐ In the short run, disequilibrium in the goods market is reflected in adjustments to prices, inventories and the external balance. ‐ Since gross domestic product is determined by summing the output of each sector, output decisions are reconciled with expenditure decisions by making imports the difference between final expenditure and aggregate supply. ‐ In the long run, increases in government expenditure crowd out private expenditure, but the effect takes several years to come through. ‐ A cut in corporation taxes which is not financed by higher taxes elsewhere boosts the supply side by raising investment and the capital stock, but not by enough to raise revenues sufficiently to pay for the tax cut. Private sector saving increases but not by enough to fund higher public sector borrowing, so the current account goes into deficit. ‐ In the short run, both supply and demand factors influence economic activity; in the long run, the path of the economy depends only on population growth, capital accumulation and technical progress.
The MTFS or the EMS: Which Way for Credible Monetary Policy?
Authors: CURRIE DAVID , DICKS GEOFFREY 
Published: January 2008

Since the latter part of 1988, the primary policy objective has been to head off a rise to double digit inflation. To this end, interest rates have been raised from 7112 per cent to 14per cent, while the public sector is running a large fiscal surplus. Despite this apparently very tight policy stance, policy is deficient in a crucial respect: it lacks credibility. The all too public divisions within government have weakened the efficacy of monetary policy, especially in financial markets. The ongoing uncertainty over who is in charge of the conduct of policy ‐ No. 10 or No. 11 ‐ further undermines confidence. The most urgent priority must be to reassert clear priorities and guidelines.In this Viewpoint, we consider how best to restore the credibility of monetary policy. There are two main possibilities: first, to reassert the Medium Term Financial Strategy (MTFS) in an appropriate form; or to join the (Exchange Rate Mechanism of the) European Monetary System (EMS). We argue that it will be very hard to derive credibility benefits from a reassertion of the MTFS: because of the inflation record of the past decade and the twists and turns of past versions of the MTFS, a mere restatement will not resolve the uncertainties that result from known differences within the government. In particular, any restatement will rely on discretion and judgement in its implementation and this will weaken its beneficial effects on expectations.Instead we argue that entry into the EMS offers a tougher and more credible commitment for monetary policy. The Chancellor has been pushed to rule out UK entry until the second half of 1990 at the earliest, but the government should make a virtue of this by announcing a firm dale for entry next year. In the interim, it should encourage a debate about the appropriate rate for entry, a debate which will increasingly guide the foreign exchange market. The government should make it clear that in choosing this rate it will do so with the commitment to low inflation very much in mind, favouring a high exchange rate. Once in the EMS, the government should rule out the possibility of devaluing the pound in an EMS realignment. This provides a firm non‐ discretionary anchor for both monetary policy and inflation expectations. With this commitment, the principal gain from EMS entry will be establishing a regime of low inflation for the next decade: in this, choice of the exchange rate will be less crucial than the fact of entry.
Briefing Paper: The Interdependence of Fiscal and Monetary Policy under Economic and Monetary Union
Authors: LEVINE PAUL 
Published: January 2008

This article explores the implications of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) for the conduct of fiscal policy. Under EMU, where the European Central Bank is successful in controlling inflation, the loss of seigniorage revenues causes a potential problem for public sector deficits. To prevent the debt‐income ratio from spiralling upwards, a primary budget surplus is ultimately required. EMU has usually been considered as a strong central monetary authority which forces fiscal discipline on lax national governments. But this is not the only possibility. Because the debt ratio can be reduced by surprise inflation, the price expectations of the private sector are important. Once these are taken into account, EMU can be examined in a ‘game’ framework in which the reputation of the authorities and the existence or otherwise of cooperation between the fiscal and monetary authorities becomes a critical factor.The paper finds that where the authorities enjoy reputation and cooperate, a one‐off reduction in public spending will lead to a permanent decline in the real interest rate and crowd in extra private spending (consumption and investment). Without reputation the cut in government spending has to be sustained. Where there is neither reputation nor cooperation, the outcome depends on the structure of the European economy and whether fiscal policy can effect the terms of trade between countries. If the terms of trade remain unchanged, the outturn is similar to the case of cooperation without reputation, but where the terms of trade can be improved in one country, there is no incentive to cut public spending. In this case the outturn is higher inflation with private spending crowded out.
The London Business School with Gower Publishing
Authors: Currie David , Dicks Geoffrey 
Published: January 2008

In October we forecast 1 per cent output growth in 1993 accompanied by little change in retail price inflation, an increase in unemployment to 3.2 million by the end of the year and a £20bn deficit on the current account of the balance of payments. Since then we have revised our view of the international outlook and the Chancellor has made his Autumn Statement. There are also some hopeful signs in the latest data on retail sales, manufactured exports and the money supply that demand may be picking up both domestically and overseas. How do these developments affect our short‐term forecast? The simple answer is very little: the outlook on output and inflation in 1993 is barely changed since October (Table I).We have lowered our forecasts for world inflation and for German interest rates which means that the pound can be held steady against the DM at lower UK interest rates and that the inflationary consequences of devaluation, though significant, are slightly less over the medium term than we made out in October. There is one revision of major significance, and that relates to the PSBR, which is now likely to reach f45bn in 1993‐4, more than 7per cent of nominal GDP. The change is not on the spending side ‐ the Autumn Statement confirmed existing expenditure plans ‐ but on revenues, notably corporate taxes and tares 011 spending, which have fallen far more quickly than we envisaged. This, in combination with a projected near‐2'per cent of GDP deficit on the balance of payments, poses a difficult medium‐term policy dilemma. To escape from the twin deficits requires either deflation of demand, which conflicts with the Government's new‐found commitment to growth, or a more buoyant economy to boost tax revenues and a competitive pound to underpin export‐led growth. Of the two the latter is self‐evidently more inflationary. This highlights the policy dilemma: at some stage the Government may have to choose between reducing the deficits and its 1–4 per cent inflation target or sacrifice its commitment to growth.
UK Economic Prospects and Policy Dilemmas
Authors: CURRIE DAVID , DICKS GEOFFREY 
Published: January 2008

Our current forecast, largely unchanged from that published in the October 1992 Economic Outlook, is for a gradual recovery in economic activity during 1993, gathering pace in the course of the year. Unemployment continues to rise through the year, and inflation remains subdued. The main risk to the forecast lies in the possibility that a continued decline in property values may check reviving confidence and lead the banks to restrict lending.The principal policy dilemma lies in the very high level of public sector borrowing, likely to rise to around 7.5 per cent of GDP on unchanged policies. The Government will need to signal its willingness to act to cut the PSBR by higher taxes or reduced spending plans. This will allow interest rates to remain low for longer, and offers the best prospects of maintaining a competitive pound and reducing the burgeoning current account deficit. There is room for a further cut in interest rates in the Budget to boost confidence and recovery, but rates may need to rise towards the end of the year if the higher prices resulting from the sterling devaluation start to feed into wage claims.The Government should also consider seriously the need for reform of the institutional framework for policy making, to help restore credibility weakened by the manner of sterling's departure from the ERM. These should include greater openness about official thinking on monetary policy, and greater autonomy, within a new framework of accountability, for the Bank of England.
Europe 1992 revisited: Assessing the Net Benefit for the UK
Authors: WILLENBOCKEL DIRK 
Published: January 2008

Calendar time has passed the 31.12.1992 deadline for completion of the EC internal market and although a voluminous body of literature has accumulated over recent years, the predictive assessment of the economic consequences of the Single European Market cannot be considered as a settled issue. The widely quoted estimates of the welfare gains from ‘Europe 1992’ suggested in the Cecchini Report of the European Commission have failed to find the unanimous approval of the economics profession. The controversial academic discourse concerning the validity of these estimates has at least shown the need for further research in this direction. Moreover, in the face of the envisaged establishment of the Single European Area, which extends the internal market regime to the EFTA group, as well as in view of the imminent EC membership applications by several Community neighbours, the refinement of the tools for the analysis of further European integration retains a high ranking on the research agenda for future years.As a contribution to the ongoing exploration of the economics of the Single Market, this article summarises the main results of a recently concluded London Business School research project to quantify the net gains from completing the EC internal market for the UK. The analytical approach adopted for the purpose is an applied computable general equilibrium (CGE) model which incorporates recent advances in international trade theory by allowing for the presence of imperfect competition, intra‐industry product differentiation and economies of scale. The approach overcomes various shortcomings of previous evaluations of regional integration programmes.The quantitative results suggest in particular that the UK is a net winner of the Single Market programme, yet the aggregate welfare gain remains well below 0.5 per cent of benchmark GDP. The analysis furthermore indicates that the long‐tern industrial restructuring processes induced by the programme are likely to be far more moderate than is widely believed.
SPECIFIC GRAVITY AS A FACTOR IN THE VERTICAL DISTRIBUTION OF PLANKTON
Authors: EYDEN DORA 
Published: January 2008

Summary.(1) It is established that the specific gravity of Daphne pulex varies. The state of starvation of the animal, and the number of young in the brood pouch, separately affect the specific gravity.(2) The release of the young from the brood pouch causes an instantaneous decrease of specific gravity.(3) The specific gravity varies in animals of the same size at different periods of the day and night, attaining a maximum shortly after sunrise, and reaching a less well‐defined minimum about midday.(4) D. pulex is most abundant in shallow water shortly before sunrise, and most scarce from midnight till just before dawn, and when the sun is shining directly on the water.(5) Changes in specific gravity must be taken into consideration when investigating the causes of the vertical distribution of the plankton.
OOGENESIS OF LITHOBIUS FORFICATUS
Authors: NATH VISHWA 
Published: January 2008

Summary.1. The nucleolus of the oocyte nucleus is at first basiphil, then amphophil and finally completely acidophil showing prominent vacuoles. It discharges into the nucleus deeply basiphil circular and irregular masses of a chromatin‐like substance. The former remain in the nucleus and form secondary nucleoli which, becoming acidophil, ultimately disappear. The irregular masses, the nucleolar extrusions, are first plastered round the nuclear membrane where they bud off small pieces in the cytoplasm. Later they are detached from the nuclear membrane and lie in the cytoplasm where they become amphophil and then acidophil. As a rule they disappear before the vitelline yolk puts in its appearance.2. Strong evidence has been adduced by a comparative study of the various genera of scorpions with and without yolk in the oocytes in favour of the view that nucleolar extrusions are probably concerned in yolk formation.3. The Golgi apparatus in young oocytes consists of small rods collected in a patch on one side of the nucleus. Evidence, both direct and indirect, has been adduced in favour of the view that Golgi rods are transformed into fatty yolk. The Golgi rods, therefore, have a nutritive function in the oocyte of Lithobius.4. The fatty yolk is blackened even by chrome‐osmium, indicating the presence of free unsaturated fat in its constitution. The true vitelline yolk appears a considerable time after the fatty yolk and goes yellowish brown in osmic acid.5. In a centrifuged egg fixed by prolonged osmic acid method the fatty yolk forms a black band at one pole, whereas the vitelline yolk is thrown down at the other pole. The middle area of the egg consists of the mitochondria, the nucleus and the unchanged Golgi rods whose amount is, roughly speaking, inversely proportional to that of the fatty yolk.
THE CHEMICAL CHANGES DURING THE METAMORPHOSIS OF INSECTS
Authors: NEEDHAM DOROTHY MOYLE 
Published: January 2008

Summary.The alterations in gaseous exchange and in carbohydrate and fat content of the organism during metamorphosis are described. The nitrogen metabolism of this period is considered, the various fractions, protein nitrogen, basic nitrogen, water‐soluble nitrogen, chitin nitrogen, uric acid nitrogen, etc., being followed as far as possible. The formation of the silk is considered, and the differences in metabolism between insects forming large and those forming insignificant cocoons.The question of the physico‐chemical causes of the onset of histolysis and of regeneration, and the question of the origin of the low respiratory exchange during the middle period of pupation, are discussed.