bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Measuring the tightness of a marriage squeeze
Authors: Schoen Robert 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The “marriage squeeze,” or the effect on marriage of an imbalance between the numbers of males and females, has been seen as having a great influence on contemporary marriage behavior. Nonetheless, the literature does not contain a clear definition of exactly what a marriage squeeze is and contains few quantitative estimates of its impact on marriage. The present article provides a precise definition of the marriage squeeze in equation (2), and applies it to measure both artificially produced marriage squeezes in two-sex nuptiality stable populations and the experience of the United States during the period 1950–1990. The marriage squeeze is shown to be capable of producing significant changes in both the level and distribution of marriage, and it appears to be having such an impact in some contemporary Third World societies. For developed
The number of illegal migrants of Mexican origin in the United States: Sex ratio-based estimates for 1980
Authors: Bean Frank D. , King Allan G. , Passel Jeffrey S. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This article reports the results of applying a sex ratio-based method to estimate the number of undocumented Mexicans residing in the United States in 1980. The approach centers on a comparison between the hypothetical sex ratio one would expect to find in Mexico in the absence of emigration to the United States and the sex ratio that is in fact reported in preliminary results from the 1980 Mexican Census. The procedure involves, inter alia, assuming a range of values for the sex ratio at birth and for census coverage differentials by sex in Mexico. Even the combinations of these values most likely to result in large estimates suggest that no more than 4 million illegal migrants of Mexican origin were residing in the United States in 1980.
Generalization of the immigration and the stable population model
Authors: Mitra S. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Building upon an idea presented by Espenshade, Bouvier and Arthur (1982) about the eventual stationarity of a population subjected to a net reproduction rate of less than one and a constant stream of immigration, this note reports the consequences upon the birth trajectory for all possible values of the net reproduction rate. It has been shown that when the net reproduction rate is equal to one, the number of births increases linearly with time. As may be expected, the increase is exponential for values of net reproduction rate greater than one.
The threshold hypothesis: evidence from less developed Latin American countries, 1950 to 1980
Authors: Cutright Phillips , Hargens Lowell 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Historical research among European countries finds large differences in the level of social, economic or demographic development among countries, or regions within countries at the time marital fertility rates began their decline from traditional high levels. This research tests a threshold hypothesis which holds that fertility will decline from traditional high levels if threshold levels of life expectancy and literacy are surpassed. Using a pooled regression analysis of 1950, 1960, 1970 and 1980 crude births rates (CBRs) in 20 less developed Latin American countries, in conjunction with 10-year lagged measures of social, economic and family planning program development, analyses reveal statistically significant effects of passing Beaver’s (1975) threshold levels of 1950 literacy, or 1950 life expectancy, that are independent of levels of lagged literacy (or lagged life expectancy), economic and family planning program development, as well as measures that control period effects .
A demonstration of the effect of seasonal migration on fertility
Authors: Massey Douglas S. , Mullan Brendan P. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Fertility estimates were calculated using own children data from the Mexican migrant town of Guadalupe, Michoacan. In this town, 75 percent of families have a member working in the United States, and wives are often regularly separated from their migrant husbands. Simulations by Menken (1979) and Bongaarts and Potter (1979) suggest that fertility among these women should be depressed. Our results confirmed this hypothesis, showing that the seasonal absence of migrant husbands disrupted both the level and timing of fertility. However, the effect was greater for legal than for illegal migrants, a pattern that stemmed from social factors as well as physical separation. A logistic regression analysis showed that reductions in birth probabilities are greater the longer a couple is separated, and that these reductions are in the range expected from prior simulations.
Census-derived estimates of fertility by duration since first marriage in the Republic of Korea
Authors: Retherford Robert D. , Cho Lee-Jay , Kim Nam-Il 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper estimates ever-married birth rates by age and duration since first marriage and ever-married total fertility rates for the Republic of Korea, derived by applying an extension of the own-children method of fertility estimation to the 1975 and 1980 censuses. Since each census provides annual estimates for the 15-year period previous to enumeration, there is a ten-year period of overlapping estimates that facilitates checks for consistency and accuracy. Comparisons are also made with estimates derived from the 1974 Korea National Fertility Survey, which was part of the World Fertility Survey. The method works well, except in its application to the 1975 Census where the evidence suggests considerable misreporting of age at first marriage because of the way the question was asked and coded. Results confirm that ever-married fertility fell substantially in Korea between 1961 and 1980, with a temporary resurgence in the late 1960s and early 1970s. Ever-married fertility rose at younger ages and shorter durations and fell at older ages and longer durations. Ever-married fertility differentials by urban-rural residence and by education were usually in the expected direction, with urban fertility generally lower than rural fertility and the fertility of those with more education usually lower than the fertility of those with less education. Differential ever-married fertility by urban-rural residence and education declined over the estimation period.
What are the determinants of delayed childbearing and permanent childlessness in the United States?
Authors: Bloom David E. , Trussell James 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper presents estimates of delayed childbearing and permanent childlessness in the United States and the determinants of those phenomena. The estimates are derived by fitting the Coale-McNeil marriage model to survey data on age at first birth and by letting the parameters of the model depend on covariates. Substantively, the results provide evidence that the low first birth fertility rates experienced in the 1970s were due to both delayed childbearing and to increasing levels of permanent childlessness. The results also indicate that (a) delayed childbearing is less prevalent among black women than among nonblack women; (b) education is an important determinant of delayed childbearing whose influence on this phenomenon seems to be increasing across cohorts; (c) education is positively associated with heterogeneity among women in their age at first birth; (d) the dispersion of age at first birth is increasing across cohorts; (e) race has an insignificant effect on childlessness; and (f) education is positively associated with childlessness, with the effect of education increasing and reaching strikingly high levels for the most recent cohorts.
City differences in racial occupational differentiation: A note on the use of odds ratios
Authors: Fossett Mark A. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This note considers whether city differences in racial occupational distribution are best investigated using measures of nominal differentiation or measures of inequality, and argues that measures of inequality are better suited for testing the prevailing theories of race differences in occupation distribution. It also defends the Index of Net Difference and the Index of Dissimilarity (and other measures of inequality used in previous research) from the criticism that they are flawed because they are sensitive to city differences in occupational structure. Additionally, it explores a new approach for investigating city differences in occupational inequality within the log-linear framework. The logical and empirical arguments offered support the conclusions that racial occupation differences reflect racial stratification, and that variation in racial occupation differences across cities is best understood as the product of city differences in the severity of racial stratification. Thus, future research in this area should continue to focus on measures of inequality rather than measures of nominal differentiation until there are sound theoretical and empirical reasons for conceptualizing race differences in occupational distribution in terms of nominal differentiation.
Evaluating the demographic impact of societal events through intervention analysis: The brown vs. Board of Education decision
Authors: Hogan Timothy D. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Using intervention analysis—a time-series technique gaining increasing use for analyzing the impacts of policy decisions/historic events—this paper reexamines the hypothesis offered by Rindfuss et al., that one consequence of the Brown vs. Board of Education decision in 1954 was a temporary decline in childbearing by white southerners. With data from the 11 former Confederate states, alternative Box-Jenkins/intervention models were estimated to identify/quantify such a decline, but no statistical evidence of a temporary shift in southern white fertility could be found.
Change in worker/nonworker ratios for women
Authors: Duncan Beverly 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Effects of age, birth year, and observation year on work behavior are estimated by minimum logit chi-square regression, using data from Current Population Surveys. Most of the observation-year effect is captured by indicators of the business cycle. Further, a model which permits the cycle effects to vary by age is preferred over any additive model. The ratio for young women is most depressed relative to that for older women when times are “good.”
Residential segregation of Spanish Americans in United States Urbanized Areas
Authors: Massey Douglas S. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Residential segregation among Spanish Americans, whites and blacks is measured in the 29 largest U.S. urbanized areas. Results show that Spanish Americans are much less segregated from whites than are blacks and are less concentrated within central cities. Spanish-white segregation also tends to be much lower in suburbs than in central cities, while black-white segregation is maintained at a high level in both areas. Segregation of Spanish Americans from whites is found to decline with generations spent in the United States. Finally, the relative proportion of Spanish who live in a central city and the relative number of Spanish who are foreign stock, are both highly related, across urbanized areas, to variations in the level of Spanish-white segregation.
A time series approach to forecasting Australian total live-births
Authors: McDonald John 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The relationship between classical demographic deterministic forecasting models, stochastic structural econometric models and time series models is discussed. Final equation autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models for Australian total live-births are constructed. Particular attention is given to the problem of transforming the time series to stationarity (and Gaussianity) and the properties of the forecasts are analyzed. Final form transfer function models linking births to females in the reproductive age groups are also constructed and a comparison of actual forecast performance using the various models is made. Long-run future forecasts are generated and compared with available projections based on the deterministic cohort model after which some policy implications of the analysis are considered.
Family Size and the Quality of Children
Authors: Blake Judith 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
If couples decide to have fewer children in order to achieve higher “quality” offspring, are they correct in assuming that the quality of children bears an important and inverse relation to family size? If they are correct, how does number of children operate to affect individual quality? This research (using U.S. whites primarily) takes educational attainment (among adults) and college plans (among youngsters) as the principal indicators of quality, but also directs some attention to measures of intelligence. The analysis supports the “dilution model” (on average, the more children the lower the quality of each child) and indicates that only children do not suffer from lack of siblings, and that other last-borns are not handicapped by a “teaching deficit.” Number of siblings (relative to other background variables) is found to have an important detrimental impact on child quality—an impact compounded by the fact that, when couples are at a stage in life to make family-size decisions, most background factors (however important to the quality of their children) are no longer readily manipulable. A special path analysis of college plans among boys uses a modification of Sewell’s Wisconsin Model as its base. The results show that number of siblings is a negative influence on intervening variables affecting college plans. In general, the research documents the unfavorable consequences for individual siblings of high fertility, even in a country that is (at least for whites) as socially, economically, and politically advantaged as the United States.
Social Structure and U.S. Inter-State Fertility Differentials in 1900
Authors: Guest Avery M. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper investigates the importance of agricultural land shortages versus modernization of the society in influencing inter-state differentials in fertility in 1900, when the United States was in midtransition. Urbanization and manufacturing characteristics of states were the strongest correlates of variations in the index of total fertility because urban-industrialism depressed both the probability of marriage and marital fertility. Other modern characteristics of American states were also important in understanding variations in marital fertility. Low labor force employment of children and farm mechanization, integrally related characteristics, seemed to depress levels of marital fertility in many parts of the United States, independent of the urban-industrial system. Agricultural land opportunity had little overall effect on marital fertility; however, it was quite important in understanding variations in patterns of marriage.
A Time Series of Instrumental Fertility Variables
Authors: Ryder N. B. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Temporal variations in conventional fertility measures reflect the operation of instrumental variables: quantitative and temporal intentions; success in achieving intentions; and reproductive conditions. A set of such variables is described, using data from the 1975 National Fertility Study. There was a large decline in the number of intended conceptions, a recent large rise in the extent of their delay, a very large decline in rates of failure to delay or terminate fertility, and a very large recent rise in sterilization. But one problem proved important and intractable: When the data source is a cross-sectional survey, the length of open interval is inherently different for real and for synthetic cohorts, it is strongly related to reproductive intention, and that affects the classification of exposure to risk in the open interval.
Effects of the Timing of Marriage and First Birth of the Spacing of Subsequent Births
Authors: Marini Margaret Mooney , Hodsdon Peter J. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Analyzing data from a fifteen-year follow-up survey of high school students originally surveyed in 1957–58 and resurveyed in 1973–74, this paper examines the effects of the timing of marriage and first birth on subsequent child spacing, holding constant the effects of other variables that may be sources of spuriousness. The results suggest that age at first marriage has a causal effect on the occurrence of a short first birth interval and that age at first marriage and premarital pregnancy interact in their effect on the occurrence of a short second birth interval. Age at first marriage has no causal effect on the spacing of the second birth for those whose first child was maritally conceived. The spacing of the first birth, however, appears to have a causal effect on the spacing of the second.
Antecedents to Contraceptive Innovation: Evidence from Rural Northern Thailand
Authors: Hogan Dennis P. , Frenzen Paul D. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
A number of different causal mechanisms have been proposed to explain the onset of fertility declines in populations with previously uncontrolled fertility, but they have never been adequately tested. The present study identifies and tests five antecedents to family limitation practices in a sample of 755 currently married couples resident in rural Northern Thailand. The loglinear multiple regression models estimated indicate that couples in more developed districts, more modern couples, couples in which wives have more equal roles, couples believing that intergenerational wealth transfers favor children rather than their parents, and more wealthy couples, were all significantly more likely to be early adopters of contraception. Local development levels appeared to have the greatest net effects on the timing of adoption of fertility control. In addition, couples in areas where contraceptive services were more readily available were also significantly more likely to be contraceptive innovators, net of these five variables.
Community Availability of Contraceptives and Family Limitation
Authors: Tsui Amy Ong , Hogan Dennis P. , Teachman Jay D. , Welti-Chanes Carlos 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This study examines the impact of contraceptive service availability on contraceptive use in Korea, Mexico, and Bangladesh. Using World Fertility Survey Data on once-married females and their communities of residence, the mutivariate analysis finds that the community level of contraceptive availability directly affects the likelihood of current use, net of the effects of community development, education, parity, and marital duration. The results are supportive of the recent policy emphasis on maximizing the geographic availability of contraceptive services.
A Note on Measuring the Independent Impact of Family Planning Programs on Fertility Declines
Authors: Hernandez Donald J. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This note critically evaluates recent cross-national studies that estimate the independent effect of family planning programs on the fertility of the developing world. The evaluation demonstrates that past research is biased to produce overestimates of net program impact. A new estimate is derived to account more completely for the effects of the social context and socioeconomic development on fertility. This estimate indicates that 5 percent of the variation in crude birth rate decline for 89 developing countries is due to family planning programs. This is substantially less than past estimates.
A Probability Mixture Model of Completed Parity
Authors: Galbeck Amanda L. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This research was designed to find a probability model that would adequately describe completed parity for women in populations characterized by high fertility combined with high zero parity. A negative binomial mixture distribution was adapted for this purpose. The form of this distribution suggests the hypothesis that human populations consist of two subgroups of women with respect to completed parity, defined according to whether they do or do not produce viable offspring. Results of the present research further suggest that the proposed distribution for completed parity has general applicability across human populations, whether they are of a high or low fertility type, and whether they have a high or low zero parity.
Parity-Specific and Two-Sex Utility Models of Reproductive Intentions
Authors: Fried Ellen Shapiro , Hofferth Sandra Lynn , Udry J. Richard 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper uses married couples’ anticipated consequences of having a (another) child to predict their reproductive intentions. Parity-specific models identify different variables as predictors of reproductive behavior at different parities but do not yield interpretable patterns of difference by parity. Parity-specific models are not significantly stronger predictors of reproductive behavior. Generally, wife-only models are distinctly superior to husband-only models. Two-sex models are usually better predictors than one-sex models but not enough better to justify the additional cost.
Estimates of U.S. Multiple Cause Life Tables
Authors: Manton Kenneth G. , Stallard Eric , Poss Sharon S. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Cause elimination life tables estimated from multiple cause of death data for four race/sex groups are presented for the U.S. population in 1969. These “multiple cause” life tables are then compared to cause elimination life tables where the mortality risk eliminated is that of the cause of death only in its occurrence as the underlying cause of death. An evaluation is made of the possible effects of the multiple cause data on our perception of the relative importance of the major causes of death. The reconceptualization of mortality risks made possible by the multiple cause of death data is also assessed in terms of its providing further insight into the “Taeuber paradox.”
Changing families and changing mobility: Their impact on the central city
Authors: Frey William H. , Kobrin Frances E. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Urban scholars and planners look to evidence of recent gains in the number of nontraditional households as a potential source of increase to the population sizes and tax bases of declining central cities. While it is now well established that substantial gains in the numbers of small, nontraditional households have occurred since the 1950s, it has not been demonstrated that: (a) these households are more likely to relocate in the city than traditional family households (husband-wife with children under 18); or (b) their cityward relocation patterns will significantly alter trends toward smaller city household populations. This paper addresses these questions by examining changes in city-suburb migration stream rates by household type over periods 1955–60, 1965–70 and 1970–75 for large metropolitan areas, and assesses their implications for potential changes in the aggregate sizes of city household populations.