bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Segmented generation mortality
Authors: Spiegelman Mortimer 
Published: March 2007

AbstractFor a clear understanding of the inherent changes in mortality with advance in age, it is necessary to observe the experience of generations rather than the cross-section of period experience. In fact, the latter may produce a misleading picture as can be illustrated in the case of tuberculosis. Period experience pointed to a rise in tuberculosis death rates with advance in age, whereas generation experience indicates a decline with aging, The present paper proposes the study of mortality changes of all generations existing at one period to a subsequent period. Some characteristics and trends in the changes in generation mortality of white males and white females since 1900 are discussed. It is pointed out, in particular, that since World War II white males have been experiencing a rapidly increasing rise in generation mortality with the approach of midlife. A comparison of generation mortality changes from 1950 to 1960 among countries of traditionally low mortality shows that only males in the other English-speaking countries may be undergoing the same experience as white males in the United States upon the approach of midlife. It is not evident in the Scandinavian countries and the Netherlands and in the other countries. The reason for these differences is not apparent.
Shopping center location and retail store mix in metropolitan areas
Authors: Casparls John 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Retail sales in 1963 in 116 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSA’s) are related to SMSA size in 1960. Nucleated sales occur in the Central Business District (CBD) and in Major Retail Centers (MRC’s). As SMSA’s grow, the proportion of sales in MRC’s increases and that in the CBD decreases. The ratio of nucleated sales to dispersed sales remains constant. The laws of economic location operate to place shopping goods primarily in the CBD and in MRC’s whereas convenience and other types of stores disperse throughout the SMSA. Plotting the straight line distance of every MRC relative to the CBD and computing the mix of trade types in MRC’s reveals that, with some modifications, most MRC’s have a mix of store types similar to the CBD. Convenience stores are somewhat more important and all other stores less so than they are in the CBD. The findings support the Harris-Ullman multiple nuclei hypothesis.
Probability models for family building: An analytical review
Authors: Sheps Mindel C. , Menken Jane A. , Radick Annette P. 
Published: March 2007

AbstractConsiderable literature now exists on stochastic models for the reproductive history of a cohort of couples. These models are of varying complexity and the relationships between separate treatments are not always clear. A classification system for such models is proposed, followed by a historical review of models for family building and for logically related processes. Models, differing only in treatment of time as discrete or continuous, are presented in detail for the simple case where the prob ability of conception is constant, and all conceptions lead to live births which are associated with a fixed nonsusceptible period. Analysis of different treatments is facilitated by introducing the notion of the time when a conception is recorded. Emphasis is placed on results for the probability of a recording at a specified time t, the probability of r recordings by time t, and the expected number of recordings in time t. Differences between the discrete and continuous time models are made explicit. It is shown that results for these models can be derived using renewal theory techniques, which are presented. More complex models based on renewal theory and allowing for several pregnancy outcomes or for variability in parameters are briefly described, followed by generalized models which allow parameters to vary with time. Applications of family building models are summarized.
A discrete-time two-sex age-specific stochastic population program incorporating marriage
Authors: Pollard J. H. 
Published: March 2007

AbstractA discrete-time two-sex stochastic population model is developed. All entities (single males, single females, or couples) are grouped according to their ages, and during a unit time interval, each entity has a choice of several outcomes with fixed conditional probabilities. The model assumes that the number of marriages between men aged x and women aged y is equal to the minimum of the number of men aged x desiring marriage with a woman aged y and the number of women aged y desiring marriage with a man aged x. It follows that if a large excess of males of a11 ages is maintained in the population, the female component grows as a multi-type Galton-Watson process. Under such circumstances, the females have perfect freedom in their choice of marriage partner, and the use of a multi-type Galton-Watson process is very realistic. The same result is true for the male component of the population. Ir there are no males (or females) , no marriages take place, so the model is realistic on this score also. A complex computer program is described, and a detailed numerical example given.
First-marriage decrement tables by color and sex for the United States in 1958–60
Authors: Saveland Walt , Glick Paul C. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
A new set of first-marriage tables is compared with earlier tables that were prepared by Grabill and Jacobson. The new tables show, among other things, the number of first marriages, first-marriage probabilities, and death probabilities for single persons in a stationary (life table) population by color and sex, based on 1960 Census data on marital status and age at first marriage and on general mortality rates for 1959–61. A comparison of the earlier tables with the new tables provides evidence of a decrease of one or two years in the average age at first marriage between 1920–40 and 1958–60 and an increasing tendency for first marriages to be concentrated within a narrower span of years. The prospects for eventual marriage have risen to the point where it is estimated that all but 3 to 5 percent of the young adults are expected eventually to marry. This development has gone so far that the main question remaining is not whether young people will ever marry, but at what age they will marry.
Age distribution and the stable equivalent
Authors: Keyfitz Nathan 
Published: March 2007

AbstractSome populations, like that of the United States in the 1950’s, have a smaller proportion of women of reproductive age than they would ultimately attain with continuance of their age-specific birth and deaths rates, a continuance which produces the condition known in demography as stability. Others, like that of the United States in the 1930’s, have relatively more women of reproductive age than they would ultimately attain with stability. A way of studying ages is to calculate how many women of stable age distribution would be equivalent from the viewpoint of reproduction to the women observed. This stable equivalent was 69,535,000 or 16 percent below the observed United States female population in 1955, and 12 percent above the observed in 1935. The stable equivalent is a measure of fertility potential, closely related to R. A. Fisher’s reproductive value. Calculations for four countries illustrate how a fall of the birth rate, for example in demographic transition, occasions an age distribution in which the stable equivalent is greater than the observed number of women. The notion of stable equivalent is useful for comparison because changes in it are nearly invariant with respect to the age-pattern of fertility used. The statement that the United States stable equivalent increased by 11 percent between 1960 and 1965 holds irrespective of whether the 1960 or the 1965 age-specific fertility and mortality rates are used as standard.
The applicability of the burgess zonal hypothesis to urban Canada
Authors: Guest Avery M. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
A replication for Canada of Schnore’s studies of socio-economic differentiation between United States central cities and suburbs produces generally similar results, although the Canadian patterns are by no means as pronounced or conclusive. Older, larger and highly suburbanized Canadian areas are most apt to have high-status groups over-represented in the suburbs and low-status groups over-represented in the central city. Furthermore, this pattern of socio-economic differentiation is found less often in Canadian areas than in the United States areas which tend to be older and larger. A study of change over time also suggests a movement toward socio-economic differentiation between city and suburb. These results are consistent with the Burgess zonal hypothesis which argues that lower-status groups increasingly inhabit the central section and upperstatus groups the outskirts as cities grow.
On the theory of stable populations: A new and elementary proof of the theorems under weaker assumptions
Authors: McFarland David D. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Expositions and elementary proofs are given for the basic theorems of stable population theory: That a population subjected to vital rates (not necessarily constant over time) satisfying certain postulates will eventually “forget” its original age distribution and take on one (not necessarily constant over time) which depends only on its history of agespecific vital rates, a process called “weak ergodicity.” That consequently the subsequent birth, death, and growth rates (none of these necessarily constant over time) depend only on the history of age-specific vital rates and not on the original age distribution. And, in particular, that these results apply to the special case, herein called “classic” stable population theory, in which the age-specific vital rates are constant over time, and in which after the “forgetting” takes place the subsequent age distribution and birth, death, and growth rates all become constant. This formulation of the theory differs from previous ones in two respects: First, the postulates required are weaker, and hence the theorems more general, than previously; in particular, this formulation permits the highest age of childbearing to change from cohort to cohort, which is important for populations practicing contraception. Second, none of the advanced mathematics used in previous formulations is needed; only the manipulation of sums and inequalities from high school algebra and the concept of “limit” from freshman calculus are required.
Factors influencing contraception continuation rates: The oral and the intrauterine methods
Authors: Hall M.-Françoise , Reinke William A. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The technique of multi-sort analysis was used to compare the relative duration of use of oral and intrauterine contraception among low socio-economic groups in Baltimore City. The clinical records of over 12,000 women who had received contraception through the Baltimore public services were analyzed. The type of method a woman used was found to be the most important factor affecting her probability of continuing contraception. Her age, race, and how long she had been using the method also influenced this probability. The strictness of the criteria used for the definition of continuation rates and the fact that experience was incomplete for many intrauterine contraceptors probably in part explain the somewhat low continuation rates obtained for both methods. It is suggested that the intrinsic characteristics of each method may lead to a clinical impression favoring the oral even when statistical evidence, as presented here, favors the intrauterine method.
A Taylor series expansion for Lotka’s r
Authors: Pollard J. H. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
A. J. Latka and F. R. Sharpe published their classical deterministic population model in 1911, and since that date, numerous numerical methods have been suggested for solving the integral equation inherent in the model. We consider the familiar integral equation (Equation (1)) and derive a Taylor series for ro, the unique real solution. The series is no more advantageous from the calculation point of view than many previous solutions, but it may be useful in a theoretical context. The effects on the intrinsic rate of increase of the population due to changes in the cumulants of the net maternity function are readily discernible.
A method for comparative analysis of fertility dynamics represented by sequences of fertility schedules
Authors: Namboodiri N. Krishnan 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
A method to compare fertility sequences, each of which represents a cyclical fluctuation around an underlying trend, is presented. Each fertility sequence is viewed as composed of a time trend in childspacing pattern and a corresponding trend in terminal fertility rate. The procedure involved in comparing each component of one fertility sequence with the corresponding component of another is described and illustrated. Using hypothetical data it is shown, among other things, that ifA andB are two cyclical fluctuations in fertility such that (i) the cycles in both are of the same length, (ii) the terminal fertility components of the two are identical, and (iii) the trend in the mean age at childbirth associated withA is higher than the corresponding trend associated withB, then, replacingB withA need not necessarily result in lowering the long-run rates of increase in the birth sequence.
Infant mortality trends in rural East Pakistan
Authors: Stoeckel John 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Infant mortality trends in a rural area of East Pakistan are analyzed utilizing the Bogue pregnancy history technique. The findings indicate that infant mortality has declined slightly over 20 percent between 1958 and 1967. The existence of development programs in women’s education and family planning since 1961 are proposed as possible reasons for this finding. A convergence in infant mortality rates to mothers in the age range 15–39 years was found in the final year under analysis, while the standard U shaped pattern of infant mortality with age structure was exhibited in the previous years. One possible explanation for the convergence is that the development programs are reaching women within this age range more equally than in the past. An alternative explanation relating to the problems of recall of mortality events was discussed.
Lifetime probability of additional births by age and parity for American women, 1935–1968: A new measurement of period fertility
Authors: Park Chal Bin 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
A new fertility measurement, probability that a woman of specified parity and age will bear a given number of births in her remaining lifetime, is proposed in this article. The measurement is a summary index of a set of age-parity-specific birth probabilities and in a particular case it is conceptually analogous to the total fertility by birth order but free from the influence of the parity distribution. Fertility of American women for the period 1935–1968 was studied by use of such lifetime probabilities. It appears that the trend of fertility of high birth orders has been parallel with that of low orders. Initiation of the recent decline in fertility depends on parity and age of woman.
Parity patterns of birth interval distribution
Authors: Lee Che-Fu , Lin Kuang-Hua 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
A simplified model is presented for the measurement of inter-live birth interval distributions. Comparative analyses of “effective fecundability,” the mean length and variation of postpartum infecundity, and the parity progression ratio based on this measurement model are presented using data from U.S. marriage cohorts and from an Indian sample. Parity differentials in these reproduction parameters are investigated, and the ramifications for fertility estimate and projection discussed.
Repeat abortion
Authors: Potter Robert G. , Ford Kathleen 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
A reanalysis of the repeat abortion experience of New York City residents during July 1, 1970 to June 30, 1972 is undertaken on the basis of a probability model that generates repeat abortion ratios as a function of assumptions about fecundity, contraceptive efficiency, and exposure lengths. Tested are three hypotheses put forward by Daily et al. in a 1973 analysis: (i) the low repeat abortion ratio of .0245 is attributable in part to underreporting of registered induced abortions as repeat ones; (ii) a major part of the rise in repeat abortion ratios, from virtually zero to six percent over four consecutive six-month intervals, is explainable in terms of the rising volume of exposure time to risk of repeat abortion relative to the stream of initial abortions; and (iii) the higher abortion ratios of women in their twenties compared to those of older or younger women is ascribable to “differences in fecundity and intercourse frequency.” Support is found for the first two hypotheses, and a mixed outcome for the third.
Immigration policies and trends: A comparison of Canada and the United States
Authors: Boyd Monica 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper discusses recent migration to North America with reference to the 1962 and 1967 Canadian immigration regulations and the 1965 United States Immigration and Nationality Act. Despite the similar emphasis on manpower and kinship criteria as the basis for the admission of immigrants, differences between Canada and the United States exist with respect to the importance of immigration for the respective economies, the organization of immigration, the formal regulations, and the size and composition of migrant streams. After an examination of the volume, origin, and occupational composition of immigration to Canada and the United States, flows between the two countries are studied. The paper concludes with a scrutiny of changes in immigration regulations which are pending in both countries.
The United States population by race and urban-rural residence 1790–1860: Reference tables
Authors: Wilkie Jane Riblett 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The U.S. population by race and urban-rural residence from 1790 to 1860 is presented. The definition of the urban population used is that population residing in incorporated places of 2,500 population or more. The rural population is the residual of the total population minus the urban population, as defined above. The tables provide previously unavailable data on the urban-rural distribution of the black and white populations 1790–1860 and are compatible with data for the total population published by the Census Bureau.
Age at Marriage as a Factor in State Divorce Rate Differentials
Authors: Weed James A. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The prominent East-to-West gradient in state divorce rates has frequently been partially attributed to an ecological factor called “frontier atmosphere,” which incorporates the effects of mobility on social integration. This paper employs linear statistical procedures to show that, after adjustment of state divorce rates for age distribution, the percent ever married among teenage females is the best statistical predictor of 1960 and 1970 divorce rates, whereas “frontierness,” conventionally measured by population mobility, is shown to have negligible effect, controlling for other selected legal and nonlegal factors. This finding suggests that previous ecological studies of divorce have overemphasized the effect of mobility and social stability on geographic divorce rate differentials, perhaps due to the neglect of demographic variables such as age distribution and especially age at marriage.
Nuptiality and Fertility of Birth Cohorts
Authors: Ruzicka Ladislav T. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The impact of changes in age patterns of nuptiality on the net reproduction rate is examined using life table techniques and assuming that age-specific fertility within marriage and fertility outside of marriage are fixed. In the second section, a standardization technique is used to investigate the impact of changes in nuptiality on age-cumulative measures of marital fertility. Examples using data for selected generations of Australian women demonstrate the extent to which recent changes in average completed family size in Australia were affected by changing nuptiality patterns.
Interregional Differences in Fertility in Brazil, 1950–1970
Authors: Merrick Thomas W. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Trends and interregional differences in the birth rate in Brazil between 1950 and 1970 are examined. Estimates are based on data from the 1950 and 1970 censuses. Regional differences in birth measures (crude and general rates) were found to widen between 1950 and 1970 despite a decline in fertility at the national level and a narrowing of regional differences in important socioeconomicvariables like income and urbanization, The substantial interregional migration flows which occurred in Brazil between 1950 and 1970 are examined for their possible impact on differentials. The effects are mixed, but the conclusion is that migration contributed to widening differences.
A Note on Differential Fertility in Sri Lanka
Authors: Fernando Dallas F. S. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
In this paper an attempt has been made to study differential fertility by urban-rural and regional classifications, using data obtained from complete tabulations of the 1963 Census of Population, the four rounds of the Socio-Economic Survey conducted from November 1969 to October 1970, and the Registrar General’s Department. The analysis of current fertility indicates that the traditional pattern of lower urban fertility relative to rural held true in both 1963 and 1970 and also shows a narrowing of the differentials. The country was divided into four zones on an agro-climatic basis for regional analysis. A consistent ranking of the zones in relation to current fertility emerges in both 1963 and 1970. Changing patterns of age-specific fertility and age-specific marital fertility are discussed. Data on average size of family by urban-rural and regional classifications are also analyzed. An attempt has also been made to identify some of the possible causes for the differentials observed.
The Relationship of the Crude Birth Rate and its Components to Social and Economic Development
Authors: Guest Avery M. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Using well-known techniques of regression analysis, we decompose the crude birth rate into six analytical components, indicating illegitimacy, the marriage rate, legitimate fertility, and sex and age composition. All the components except sex structure are important in determining differences in crude birth rates across countries of the world. The model is elaborated by showing how economic development affects the crude birth rate through its basic demographic components.
The Multiregional Net Maternity Function and Multiregional Stable Growth
Authors: Rogers Andrel 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper extends recent efforts to generalize Lotka’s integral equation to the case of a multiregional population that experiences internal migration. It develops the concept of a multiregional net maternity function and considers the relationships between a multiregional population’s schedule of fertility, mortality, and migration and its stable growth properties.
Metropolitan Retail Nucleation
Authors: Guest Avery M. , Cluett Christopher 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
We argue that U.S. metropolitan retail nucleation, as represented by sales in the Central Business District and in retail centers, is a consequence of population growth in at least three transportation epochs, the walking and horse era, the electric streetcar era, and the automobile period. Population growth in each epoch has had a different effect on retail nucleation, with the most recent growth having had a pronounced positive effect on development of retail centers and a slight negative effect on the sales of the Central Business District.