bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Wavelet Filtering to Extract Coherent Vortices from Altimetric Data
Authors: Turiel Antonio , Isern-Fontanet Jordi , García-Ladona Emilio 
Published: December 2007

Abstract
Because of the optimal features of wavelet processing, the use of wavelets for describing and analyzing signals in 2D turbulence has been generalized since a decade ago. In spite of the close analogy between 2D turbulence and geophysical fluid dynamics, few works have tried to generalize the rich framework of wavelet techniques to the study of experimental signals in oceanography. In this paper, the authors extend a prominent wavelet technique designed for the study of direct numerical simulations (DNSs) on 2D turbulence, the coherent vortex simulation, and analyze with it ocean velocity fields obtained from sea surface height maps derived from satellite altimetry. The authors demonstrate the pertinence of this technique to describe altimetry data, resulting in a description of oceanic flows with a reduced number of degrees of freedom. In particular, it is shown that the western Mediterranean circulation is well approximated by a field of extracted coherent vortices when an appropriate wavelet basis is employed as a filter; however, about one-third of the energy is lost in this description, evidencing important differences between results obtained on the frame of 2D turbulence and oceanic data.
Evaluation of a UHF Radar Surface Current Mapping System in an Intertidal Salt Marsh
Authors: Styles Richard , Teague Calvin C. 
Published: December 2007

AbstractA UHF RiverSonde radar system was deployed in an intertidal salt marsh during November and December 2005 near Georgetown, South Carolina. The purpose of this experiment was to evaluate radar performance in a coastal plain salt marsh, where the channels are highly sinuous and the flow is dominated by tides. To help evaluate radar performance, an acoustic current profiler was placed in a large subtidal channel located in the field of view of the radar. Comparisons indicated that the radar accurately reproduced both the magnitude and phasing of the surface current. Spatial coverage was generally good in the channels but much more sporadic over the marsh platform. Temporal coverage in the channel was also good and correlated with wind speed. Reliable measurements were obtained under wind speeds as low as 2–3 m s−1, which are common at this site. In addition, some unexpected signals were seen at near zero Doppler shift, which were attributed to the saltwater vegetation Spartina alterniflora, which acted as effective radar targets. However, these signals were uncorrelated and likely can be filtered.
An Analog Method for Real-Time Forecasting of Summer Monsoon Subseasonal Variability
Authors: Xavier Prince K. , Goswami B. N. 
Published: December 2007

AbstractA physically based empirical real-time forecasting strategy to predict the subseasonal variations of the Indian summer monsoon up to four–five pentads (20–25 days) in advance has been developed. The method is based on the event-to-event similarity in the properties of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs). This two-tier analog method is applied to NOAA outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) pentad averaged data that have sufficiently long records of observation and are available in nearly real time. High-frequency modes in the data are eliminated by reconstructing the data using the first 10 empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs), which together explain about 75% of the total variance. In the first level of the method, the spatial analogs of initial condition pattern are identified from the modeling data. The principal components (PCs) of these spatial analogs, whose evolution history of the latest five pentads matches that of the initial condition pattern, are considered the temporal PC analogs. Predictions are generated for each PC as the average evolution of PC analogs for the given lead time. Predicted OLR values are constructed using the EOFs and predicted PCs. OLR data for 1979–99 are used as the modeling data and independent hindcasts are generated for the period 2000–05. The skill of anomaly predictions is rather high over the central and northern Indian region for lead times of four–five pentads. The phases and amplitude of intraseasonal convective spells are predicted well, especially the long midseason break of 2002 that resulted in large-scale drought conditions. Skillful predictions can be made up to five pentads when started from an active initial state, whereas the limit of useful predictions is about two–three pentads when started from break initial conditions. An important feature of this method is that unlike some other empirical methods to forecast monsoon ISOs, it uses minimal time filtering to avoid any possible endpoint effects and hence may be readily used for real-time applications. Moreover, as the modeling data grow with time as a result of the increased number of observations, the number of analogs would also increase and eventually the quality of forecasts would improve.
Hurricane Katrina (2005). Part I: Complex Life Cycle of an Intense Tropical Cyclone
Authors: McTaggart-Cowan Ron , Bosart Lance F. , Gyakum John R. , Atallah Eyad H. 
Published: December 2007

Abstract
The devastating effects of Hurricane Katrina (2005) on the Gulf Coast of the United States are without compare for natural disasters in recent times in North America. With over 1800 dead and insured losses near $40 billion (U.S. dollars), Katrina ranks as the costliest and one of the deadliest Atlantic hurricanes in history. This study documents the complex life cycle of Katrina, a storm that was initiated by a tropical transition event in the Bahamas. Katrina intensified to a category-1 hurricane shortly before striking Miami, Florida; however, little weakening was observed as the system crossed the Florida peninsula. An analog climatology is used to show that this behavior is consistent with the historical record for storms crossing the southern extremity of the peninsula. Over the warm Gulf of Mexico waters, Katrina underwent two periods of rapid intensification associated with a warm core ring shed by the Loop Current. Between these spinup stages, the storm doubled in size, leading to a monotonic increase in power dissipation until Katrina reached a superintense state on 28 September. A pair of extremely destructive landfalls in Louisiana followed the weakening of the system over shelf waters. Despite its strength as a hurricane, Katrina did not reintensify following extratropical transition. The evolution of the storm’s outflow anticyclone, however, led to a perturbation of the midlatitude flow that is shown in a companion study to influence the Northern Hemisphere over a period of 2 weeks. An understanding of the varied components of Katrina’s complex evolution is necessary for further developing analysis and forecasting techniques as they apply to storms that form near the North American continent and rapidly intensify over the Gulf of Mexico. Given the observed overall increase in Atlantic hurricane activity since the mid-1990s, an enhanced appreciation for the forcings involved in such events could help to mitigate the impact of similar severe hurricanes in the future.
On Near-Diffusion-Free Advection over Spherical Geodesic Grids
Authors: Mittal Rashmi , Upadhyaya H. C. , Sharma Om P. 
Published: December 2007

Abstract
A forward trajectory advection scheme has been designed for its use in an icosahedral–hexagonal grid model. The scheme has been evaluated with two-dimensional test cases: solid-body rotation and deformational flow; both depict important characteristics of atmospheric flows. The main motivation of this study is to achieve good accuracy without using higher-order interpolations in a numerical advection scheme, so that it may become viable in fine-resolution GCMs. The computation of the error norm shows its gradient as constant and the scheme is approximately first-order accurate. The other interesting feature of this study is that its downstream search algorithm reduces the complexity from O(n2) to O(n).
Bayesian Estimation of Stochastic Parameterizations in a Numerical Weather Forecasting Model
Authors: Song Yong , Wikle Christopher K. , Anderson Christopher J. , Lack Steven A. 
Published: December 2007

Abstract
Parameterizations in numerical models account for unresolved processes. These parameterizations are inherently difficult to construct and as such typically have notable imperfections. One approach to account for this uncertainty is through stochastic parameterizations. This paper describes a methodological approach whereby existing parameterizations provide the basis for a simple stochastic approach. More importantly, this paper describes systematically how one can “train” such parameterizations with observations. In particular, a stochastic trigger function has been implemented for convective initiation in the Kain–Fritsch (KF) convective parameterization scheme within the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (Penn State–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5). In this approach, convective initiation within MM5 is modeled by a binary random process. The probability of initiation is then modeled through a transformation in terms of the standard KF trigger variables, but with random parameters. The distribution of these random parameters is obtained through a Bayesian Monte Carlo procedure informed by radar reflectivities. Estimates of these distributions are then incorporated into the KF trigger function, giving a meaningful stochastic (distributional) parameterization. The approach is applied to cases from the International H2O project (IHOP). The results suggest the stochastic parameterization/Bayesian learning approach has potential to improve forecasts of convective precipitation in mesoscale models.
Finescale Vertical Structure and Dynamics of Some Dryline Boundaries Observed in IHOP
Authors: Miao Qun , Geerts Bart 
Published: December 2007

Abstract
Several radar fine lines, all with a humidity contrast, were sampled in the central Great Plains during the 2002 International H2O Project (IHOP). This study primarily uses aircraft and airborne millimeter-wave radar observations to dynamically interpret the presence and vertical structure of these fine lines as they formed within the well-developed convective boundary layer. In all cases the fine line represents a boundary layer convergence zone. This convergence sustains a sharp contrast in humidity, and usually in potential temperature, across the fine line. The key question addressed herein is whether, at the scale examined here (∼10 km), the airmass contrast itself, in particular the horizontal density (virtual potential temperature) difference and resulting solenoidal circulation, is responsible for the sustained convergence and the radar fine line. For the 10 cases examined herein, the answer is affirmative.
Low-Level African Easterly Wave Activity and Its Relation to Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis in 2001
Authors: Ross Robert S. , Krishnamurti T. N. 
Published: December 2007

Abstract
This paper provides new information on the low-level (850 hPa) structure and behavior of African easterly waves (AEWs) and relates this information to previous studies. Individual AEWs that occurred during June–September of 2001 are studied by a synoptic approach that employs Hovmöller diagrams, wave track maps, and case studies. The focus is on two AEW regimes in the lower troposphere over North Africa: a dry regime to the north of the African easterly jet (AEJ) coincident with the surface position of the monsoon trough near 20°N, and a wet regime to the south of the jet coincident with the near-equatorial rainbelt near 10°N. The following issues are addressed: the origin of the waves seen in the two wave regimes, relation of the wave activity to the mean positions of the surface monsoon trough and the 600–700-hPa AEJ, collocation of the tracks of the two wave regimes off the African coast, and diversity in low-level wave behavior that includes merging, splitting, and dissipation of the cyclonic vorticity centers associated with the wave troughs. The relationship between the waves following the two tracks is examined as well as the relationship between the low-level wave activity and Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis in 2001. It is shown that the two wave regimes can interact, and that both regimes were instrumental in Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis in 2001.
Interpretation of Adaptive Observing Guidance for Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
Authors: Reynolds C. A. , Peng M. S. , Majumdar S. J. , Aberson S. D. , Bishop C. H. , Buizza R. 
Published: December 2007

Abstract
Adaptive observing guidance products for Atlantic tropical cyclones are compared using composite techniques that allow one to quantitatively examine differences in the spatial structures of the guidance maps and relate these differences to the constraints and approximations of the respective techniques. The guidance maps are produced using the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) based on ensembles from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and total-energy singular vectors (TESVs) produced by ECMWF and the Naval Research Laboratory. Systematic structural differences in the guidance products are linked to the fact that TESVs consider the dynamics of perturbation growth only, while the ETKF combines information on perturbation evolution with error statistics from an ensemble-based data assimilation scheme. The impact of constraining the SVs using different estimates of analysis error variance instead of a total-energy norm, in effect bringing the two methods closer together, is also assessed. When the targets are close to the storm, the TESV products are a maximum in an annulus around the storm, whereas the ETKF products are a maximum at the storm location itself. When the targets are remote from the storm, the TESVs almost always indicate targets northwest of the storm, whereas the ETKF targets are more scattered relative to the storm location and often occur over the northern North Atlantic. The ETKF guidance often coincides with locations in which the ensemble-based analysis error variance is large. As the TESV method is not designed to consider spatial differences in the likely analysis errors, it will produce targets over well-observed regions, such as the continental United States. Constraining the SV calculation using analysis error variance values from an operational 3D variational data assimilation system (with stationary, quasi-isotropic background error statistics) results in a modest modulation of the target areas away from the well-observed regions, and a modest reduction of perturbation growth. Constraining the SVs using the ETKF estimate of analysis error variance produces SV targets similar to ETKF targets and results in a significant reduction in perturbation growth, due to the highly localized nature of the analysis error variance estimates. These results illustrate the strong sensitivity of SVs to the norm (and to the analysis error variance estimate used to define it) and confirm that discrepancies between target areas computed using different methods reflect the mathematical and physical differences between the methods themselves.
The Operational GFDL Coupled Hurricane–Ocean Prediction System and a Summary of Its Performance
Authors: Bender Morris A. , Ginis Isaac , Tuleya Robert , Thomas Biju , Marchok Timothy 
Published: December 2007

Abstract
The past decade has been marked by significant advancements in numerical weather prediction of hurricanes, which have greatly contributed to the steady decline in forecast track error. Since its operational implementation by the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) in 1995, the best-track model performer has been NOAA’s regional hurricane model developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The purpose of this paper is to summarize the major upgrades to the GFDL hurricane forecast system since 1998. These include coupling the atmospheric component with the Princeton Ocean Model, which became operational in 2001, major physics upgrades implemented in 2003 and 2006, and increases in both the vertical resolution in 2003 and the horizontal resolution in 2002 and 2005. The paper will also report on the GFDL model performance for both track and intensity, focusing particularly on the 2003 through 2006 hurricane seasons. During this period, the GFDL track errors were the lowest of all the dynamical model guidance available to the NWS Tropical Prediction Center in both the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins. It will also be shown that the GFDL model has exhibited a steady reduction in its intensity errors during the past 5 yr, and can now provide skillful intensity forecasts. Tests of 153 forecasts from the 2004 and 2005 Atlantic hurricane seasons and 75 forecasts from the 2005 eastern Pacific season have demonstrated a positive impact on both track and intensity prediction in the 2006 GFDL model upgrade, through introduction of a cloud microphysics package and an improved air–sea momentum flux parameterization. In addition, the large positive intensity bias in sheared environments observed in previous versions of the model is significantly reduced. This led to the significant improvement in the model’s reliability and skill for forecasting intensity that occurred in 2006.
Estimating Local Memory of Tropical Cyclones through MPI Anomaly Evolution
Authors: Hart Robert E. , Maue Ryan N. , Watson Michael C. 
Published: December 2007

Abstract
This study examines the local memory of atmospheric and oceanic changes associated with a tropical cyclone (TC). The memory is quantified through anomalous maximum potential intensity (MPI) evolution for 20 days prior to the arrival of a TC through 60 days after the TC passage. The local MPI weakens and is not restored to the evolving climatology until well after the TC has departed. Stabilization occurs through warming of the atmosphere and cooling of the ocean surface on different time scales. The time scale of MPI stabilization following TC passage is approximately 30–35 days for a tropical storm to 50–60 days for a category 3–5 hurricane, with significant storm-specific and basin-specific variability. The atmospheric stabilization (warming with respect to SST) begins with TC arrival and continues for approximately 7–10 days after passage, when the troposphere cools below normal. The rewarming of SST and the subsequent rewarming of the atmosphere occurs within approximately 35 days for all intensities, despite a positive (weakened) MPI anomaly through two months. This suggests that the atmosphere retains anomalous warmth beyond what can be attributable to sensible heating from the rewarmed SST. The maintenance of a positive MPI anomaly beyond 35 days is thus attributed to a feedback on larger scales that requires considerable further research. A TC’s passage through a region does not always lead to a weakening of the MPI. In regions poleward of the sharp SST gradient, the MPI one month after TC passage is often several millibars stronger than climatology. There are also mesoscale regions of destabilization one month after TC passage that may result partially from salinity changes driven by oceanic mixing as well as changes in precipitation and evaporation.
A Fourth-Order-Centered Finite-Volume Scheme for Regular Hexagonal Grids
Authors: Miura Hiroaki 
Published: December 2007

Abstract
Fourth-order-centered operators on regular hexagonal grids with the ZM-grid arrangement are described. The finite-volume method is used and operators are defined at hexagonal cell centers. The gradient operator is calculated from 12 surrounding cell center scalars. The divergence operator is defined from 12 surrounding cell corner vectors. A linear combination of local or interpolated values generates cell corner values used to calculate the operators. The flux-divergence operator applies the same cell corner values as those used in the gradient and divergence operators. The fourth-order convergence of the gradient and divergence operators is obtained in numerical tests using sufficiently smooth and differentiable test functions. The flux-divergence operator is formally second-order accurate. However, the results from a cone advection test show that the flux-divergence operator performs better than a commonly used second-order flux-divergence operator. Numerical dispersion and phase error are small because mean wind advection is computed with fourth-order accuracy.
Prediction of the Diurnal Cycle Using a Multimodel Superensemble. Part II: Clouds
Authors: Chakraborty Arindam , Krishnamurti T. N. , Gnanaseelan C. 
Published: December 2007

Abstract
This study addresses the issue of cloud parameterization in general circulation models utilizing a twofold approach. Four versions of the Florida State University (FSU) global spectral model (GSM) were used, including four different cloud parameterization schemes in order to construct ensemble forecasts of cloud covers. Next, a superensemble approach was used to combine these model forecasts based on their past performance. It was shown that it is possible to substantially reduce the 1–5-day forecast errors of phase and amplitude of the diurnal cycle of clouds from the use of a multimodel superensemble. Further, the statistical information generated in the construction of a superensemble was used to develop a unified cloud parameterization scheme for a single model. This new cloud scheme, when implemented in the FSU GSM, carried a higher forecast accuracy compared to those of the individual cloud schemes and their ensemble mean for the diurnal cycle of cloud cover up to day 5 of the forecasts. This results in a 5–10 W m−2 improvement in the root-mean-square error to the upward longwave and shortwave flux at the top of the atmosphere, especially over deep convective regions. It is shown that while the multimodel superensemble is still the best product in forecasting the diurnal cycle of clouds, a unified cloud parameterization scheme, implemented in a single model, also provides higher forecast accuracy compared to the individual cloud models. Moreover, since this unified scheme is an integral part of the model, the forecast accuracy of the single model improves in terms of radiative fluxes and thus has greater impacts on weather and climate time scales. This new cloud scheme will be tested in real-time simulations.
Predictability of Cold Spring Seasons in Europe
Authors: Shongwe Mxolisi E. , Ferro Christopher A. T. , Coelho Caio A. S. , Jan van Oldenborgh Geert 
Published: December 2007

Abstract
The seasonal predictability of cold spring seasons (March–May) in Europe from hindcasts/forecasts of three operational coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) is investigated. The models used in the investigation are the Met Office Global Seasonal Forecast System (GloSea), the ECMWF System-2 (S2), and the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS). Using the relative operating characteristic score and the Brier skill score the long-term prediction skill for spring 2-m temperature in the lower quintile (20%) is assessed. Over much of central and eastern Europe the predictive skill is found to be high. The skill of the Met Office GloSea and ECMWF S2 models significantly surpasses that of damped persistence over much of Europe but the NCEP CFS model outperforms this reference forecast only over a small area. The higher potential predictability of cold spring seasons in eastern relative to southwestern Europe can be attributed to snow effects as areas of high skill closely correspond with the climatological snow line, and snow is shown in this paper to be linked to cold spring 2-m temperatures in eastern Europe. The ability of the models to represent snow cover during the melt season is also investigated. The Met Office GloSea and the ECMWF S2 models are able to accurately mimic the observed pattern of monthly snow-cover interannual variability, but the NCEP CFS model predicts too short a snow season. Improvements in the snow analysis and land surface parameterizations could increase the skill of seasonal forecasts for cold spring temperatures.