bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Racial Identity, Length of Incarceration, and Parole Decision Making
Authors: Elion Victor H. , Megargee Edwin I. 
Published: March 2007

Previous research has disclosed significant differences in the severity of sentences imposed on black and white offenders. This study investigated racial differences in black-white sentence patterns at the final stage of the criminal justice process, focusing on the actual amount of time served and the frequen cy of parole in a sample of 958 youthful offenders from a cohort of 1,345 consecutive admissions to a federal correctional institution. No racial differences were found in the actual amount of time served, but a significantly higher percentage of whites than blacks were granted parole. Blacks who were granted parole served a smaller portion of their sentences than did whites who were granted parole, but nonparoled blacks served a greater portion than did nonparoled whites. Discriminant function analysis did not show race to be significantly associated with decision to grant parole; instead, the primary factor was the entry sentence, with offenders sentenced to relatively short terms (less than eighteen months) being paroled less fre quently than those with longer terms. Since blacks were more likely to have the shorter sentences, the racial difference in percentage granted parole was partly attributable to the severity of the sentence imposed originally. Examination of thirteen offender variables reflecting personal and social history, legal factors, and institutional adjustment measures revealed signifi cant differences between paroled and nonparoled inmates but not between racial groups. Further discriminant analysis of factors associated with parole within black and white subsamples indicated that, of the thirteen variables examined, entry sentence, violence of offense, and adult maladjustment and deviance were significantly associated with likelihood of parole for both racial groups. Institutional adjustment also appeared to play an important role in decisions regarding blacks, while variables relating to personal and social ad justment before incarceration seemed to be more important among whites. It is speculated that the observable overrepresentation of blacks in penal and other correctional institutions is attributable to decisions made earlier in the criminal justice process, rather than to biased parole-granting procedures, at least in this federal institution. Further research on possible interaction of social deficits and criminal justice decision making instead of race and sen tence severity is suggested.
The Postrelease Trauma Thesis
Authors: Minor W.William 
Published: March 2007

The postrelease trauma thesis is that during the time immediately following release from prison the offender faces particular stress, which often cul minates in renewed criminal activity. Although this thesis enjoys almost uni versal acceptance by criminologists, it can be questioned on several grounds. First, from an importation perspective, entry into or exit from the prison community may not represent a major break in the felon's life; his role may be seen as remaining continuous before, during, and after imprisonment. Sec ond, the failure to reduce recidivism through programs designed to ease the transition from prison to community suggests that they may, by nature, be superfluous. Third, the most common way of reporting parole violation data overstates the risk during the early parole period relative to later periods. Finally, the social organization of parole work makes apprehension of vio lators more likely during early months than it is later on, regardless of the parolee's behavior. These issues suggest the need to exercise caution in the interpretation of parole statistics. More generally, they suggest that the postrelease trauma thesis itself should not be accepted without extensive and rigorous empirical examination.
Training Fluency: An Essential Factor in Language Acquisition and Use
Authors: Davies Norman F. 
Published: March 2007

In language education, three primary aspects of communi cation should be taken into account: accuracy, appropriateness and fluency. The first, long the traditional goal of teaching, has in recent years been weakened by interlanguage theory and the view that a knowledge of usage alone is insufficient. An over emphasis on Monitor-use (Krashen's terminology) may also adversely affect acquisition, lead to slow pacing and an im poverishment of language samples presented in the classroom. Appropriateness has in recent years been seen as a major factor in achieving communicative competence, now widely accepted (though not always well-defined) as the major goal of language teaching and learning. The rules of use are undoubtedly a suitable field for study but have perhaps been overemphasized by some proponents; they often differ little between related cultures. To learn language, however, one must use it, and fluency training is the essential but partly neglected third factor in the learning situation. Fluency is essential in the receptive skills, which should be given early priority and trained by constant exposure to and processing of a wide variety of preferably authentic materials. It is desirable in the productive skills, and requires the frequent use of genuine and stimulating communica tive exercises in the classroom, which not only increase fluency but are a major vehicle of language acquisition. Examples are given of methods of training fluency, in the classroom and in the learning laboratory.
Simulation of digital control systems on an analog computer with digital logic
Authors: Clemence C.R. 
Published: March 2007

This paper describes a procedure for simulation of digital control systems on an analog computer with digital logic. The digital elements are only those normally provided in the digital panel now available as an optional accessory from most analog computer manufacturers. When used in conjunction with the conventional analog amplifiers and integrators connected as track-hold devices, it is possible to simulate complete systems which include not only the straightforward single-rate system but also those having two or more sampling rates or subsystems, and those having delayed or skip sampling characteristics. The digital logic connections for some simple but typical problems are given and are suggestive of those required for more sophisticated applications. A couple of oscilloscope photographs are included which show the informative presentation which can be obtained with this simulation technique.
Modular design of multicomputer systems
Authors: Unger Brian W. , Bidulock Don S. 
Published: March 2007

Multicomputer systems involve complex hardware and software components with extensive interactions. Furthermore, rapid advances in semiconductor tech nology have resulted in many different ways to im plement a system requirement. The merits of different hardware implementations are difficult to determine at an early stage of design and will often change subsequently. Thus we need design methods that let us delay implementation deci sions as long as possible. The structure of a sys tem, i.e., the definition of major components and their interaction, is often independent of the physi cal implementation. The design of the structure, however, largely determines important system charac teristics such as performance, modularity, reliabil ity, visibility, and adaptability. We outline a design method based on guidelines that promote modularity and access graphs that specify interactions between components. This method is then applied to a typical example, the design of a network message processor. The processor handles communications in a network of multiple computers and interactive terminals.
Simulating the Energy Requirements of a Country's Industrial Production
Authors: Mosekilde Erik , Meyer Niels I. 
Published: March 2007

The rapidly increasing fuel prices and the associat ed changes in our economic conditions will influence the future needs for energy considerably. Histori cal trends for the growth of energy consumption can no longer be expected to continue, and studying the needs for long-term development of energy requires a model that provides an adequate level of detail and includes both technological and economic factors. our model of the Danish industrial production sec tors divides the energy consumption into four com ponents : space heating, lighting and ventization, process heat, and production processes. Relation ships are included that estimate the cost of saving energy through such measures as improved building insuzation, waste-heat regeneration, cogeneration of steam and electricity, and reduction of the use of process heat. It is assumed that the industry actually institutes those measures that have a re payment time below an adjustable maximum value. Our model allows experimentation with various scenarios for both general economic conditions and fuel prices. Although the model does not include a complete thermodynamic description of the flow of energy through the system, it does provide insight into the real potential for energy conservation.
The Mathematical Structure of an Aquatic Ecosystem Model
Authors: de Caprariis Pascal P. 
Published: March 2007

As ecological models become more complex, the ques tion of whether they are stable becomes more diffi cult to answer. Some ecologists believe that a com plex system is more stable than a simple system because it is less dependent on any single path through it. Mathematicians, on the other hand, have shown that systems of equations are more likely to become unstable as the number of equations increases. Neither tendency may apply to ecological systems that include time-varying components and in which the number of significant interactions does not de pend strongly on the number of components. In the case of the aquatic ecosystem model MS. CLEANER, solutions of the governing differential equations are stable even though the model contains up to 40 state variables and simulates many biologi cal, biochemical, microbial, and chemical processes. The stability is the result of feedback in the system and the sparseness of the interaction matrix. A qualitative analysis of the model shows that the functions used to represent predation have signifi cantly different forms at high, low, and intermediate nutrient levels. The different forms of this func tion cause unique, bounded solutions for high and low nutrient conditions and two stable, periodic solutions for intermediate conditions. The predic tion of a unique solution independent of the initial conditions in one case and more than one stable periodic solution in another case agrees with the published results of simulation.
Providing Statistical Confidence in the Evaluation of Alternatives
Authors: Amer Paul D. 
Published: March 2007

A simulation study comparing a set of alternatives should include a confidence statement regarding the accuracy of its results. Statistical ranking and selection procedures can provide such confidence statements. Typical goals for these procedures in clude selecting the best alternative, selecting a subset that includes the best, selecting all alter natives that are better than a control (or base case), selecting all alternatives that are better than a control while also excluding all alternatives that fail to meet a minimum standard, and selecting all alternatives that are better than a standard involving two parameters. The analyst can use tables to determine how many observations are required to achieve a specified level of confidence in the results. Proportions are generally the best statistics to use because they do not assume any underlying distribution for the data and, in some cases, they summarize distributions more effectively than do such other parameters as the mean or median. Examples show how the procedures were applied in an evaluation of remote-access inter active computer services.
Simulating the Economics of Coal Production
Authors: Burzlaff Bernard H. , Lohrenz John , Monash Ellis A. 
Published: March 2007

Simple models of discounted cash flow can simulate production for coal mines with three different geometries: (1) uniform horizontal beds, (2) horizontal beds with optional incremental seams, and (3) uniform dipping seams. The models assume that investors choose a constant rate and duration of production to maximize present worth. Examples show the effects of policy and economic changes on coal production for each model. The results show that changes which increase variable costs reduce the optimum rate and duration of production. Changes which increase fixed costs, however, do not affect the optimum rate of production but do reduce the ultimate recovery of coal.
Assessing Defense Procurement Policies
Authors: blakley Daniel L. , Cohen Kalman J. , Lewin Arie Y. , Morey Richard C. 
Published: March 2007

Defense systems are typically over budget and behind schedule, and they often fail to meet performance specifications despite incentive schemes. Our study shows that these schemes are ineffective primarily because they assume (1) that a contractor's sole criterion is maximizing profit on a contract, and (2) that a single decision maker determines criteria that do not change in the course of system development. In fact, defense contractors have many different criteria, and their relative importance often changes with time. We have developed a dynamic computer simulation model that accounts for all the major motivations of the defense contractor, some of which are unrelated to any particular contract. It considers how the con tractor interacts, at both the corporate and the project-manager levels, with decision makers at the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD). The model is a relatively new type called a decision process model. A special feature of the model is that the user can modify the corporate-level and project-level goals of the contractor to better meet DOD goals as stated in the contract. The model can help planners assess the impact of alternative DOD incentive schemes and procurement policies on the per formance of defense contractors. The model is currently in the third stage of valida tion (statistical and sensitivity analysis). It has already yielded a few tentative results, most of which are strongly supported by field interviews with DOD and defense contractor personnel.
Early Desire
Authors: Korn Granino A. 
Published: March 2007

EARLY DESIRE is a new, floating-point equation- language simulation system for Digital Equipment (DEC) PDP-11 and LSI-11 minicomputers. It combines (1) An interpreted job-control language for inter active program entry, editing, file operations, and multi-run experiments (2) An efficient, very fast compiler for the time- critical dynamic segment equation solution (3) Precompiled FORTRAN library routines for dif ferent integration-rule overlays. EARLY DESIRE needs no external compiler or linker. It executes directly on a RUN command at a speed 1.3 to 4 times faster than DEC RT-11 FORTRAN. Future DESIRE systems will run on 32-bit computers and will employ attached array processors as execution processors.
Simulating Saudi Arabia's oil export strategy
Authors: Picardi Anthony C. , Shorb Alan McK. 
Published: March 2007

A system dynamics model of Saudi Arabia's oil export strategy has been constructed. Besides providing estimates of future oil exports, this work demonstrates the application of stochas tic simulation models with feedback to the examination of de cisions involving multiple objectives. Such models can be used in real-world strategic planning where decisions affect the achievement of many goals simultaneously, and where tradeoffs must be made between different objectives. Since strategic planning occurs in an environment of uncertain events, it is necessary to explore the limits of the system behavior so best and worst case scenarios can be defined. Our model, called the Saudi Oil Decision Model, uses inter views with informed people to estimate probable values of ex ternal factors and to validate the system structure. The model considers seven Saudi national objectives, four of which are advanced by increasing exports and three by decreasing ex ports. The feedback structure balances increases and de creases in exports according to criteria that measure the achievement of all seven objectives. The model was simulated in a Monte Carlo mode, and the results were examined to determine which combinations of ex ternal events produced the largest changes in oil exports. Analysis shows that large increases in Saudi oil exports are unlikely, given their national objectives as evidenced in past behavior. The reason for this derives from the dynamics of compromise between conflicting objectives. The Saudi Oil Decision Model is the first multi-objective model to be ap plied to the political-economic problem of oil exports from Saudi Arabia.
Evaluating the reliability and availability of photovoltaic systems
Authors: Huss William R. 
Published: March 2007

SOLREL, a new reliability/availability simulation model, incor porates design, reliability, cost, and maintenance information to predict annual maintenance cost and energy production for photovoltaic [PV] power systems. SOLREL considers failures, lost production, and both scheduled and unscheduled mainte nance. Combined with initial cost and operating cost informa tion, the model predicts levelized cost per kWh. It gives photovoltaic system designers a way to evaluate design trade- offs and minimize life-cycle energy cost. Large terrestrial photovoltaic power systems (over 50 kWp) are a recent development. Thus, failure rate, repair time, and cost data are lacking for many subsystems and components. In spite of this, reliability/availability models can still aid in design decisions by allowing designers to estimate changes in life-cycle energy costs for alternative subsystems and con figurations. As more test and field data become available, the models can be made more detailed and more accurate. At present, their principal value is to emphasize reliability and maintainability early in system design, with resulting im provements in component selection and subsystem design.
A preliminary review of batch sizes in a job shop using a digital simulation model
Authors: Browne Jim , Davies B.J. 
Published: March 2007

A previous paper 1 described the design of a simulation model. This model, written in GASP IV, allows the management of a large machine shop to try out policies under realistic assump tions without disrupting operations. This paper outlines the results of approximately 30 "runs" on the model, which are designed to provide an insight into the ef fects of modifying the batch sizes used in the machine shop. The results obtained suggest that the major impact of increased batch sizes is on the flow of work through the plant. The overall conclusion is that the current manufacturing system cannot ac commodate larger batch sizes. The presently used batch sizes suit the configuration of work centres and the deployment of labour in the job shop.
Use of computer simulation in oil spill response training
Authors: Peabody C.H. , Goodman R.H. 
Published: March 2007

Response to recent oil spill incidents has shown the need for augmenting the training of oil spill response teams. At the spill site, the On-Scene Commander attempts to correlate all the available information for prompt implementation of the op timum clean-up strategy. A new technique using Computer-Assisted Learning has been developed for the training of On-Scene commanders, which dramatically simulates the time pressures involved in an oil spill. The Computer-Assisted Learning system will complement ac tual hands-on training field exercises. A forty-eight hour scenario is simulated in four hours of actual time, during which the On-Scene Commander responds to the spill situation by requesting weather information, spill trajec tories, deploying booms and skimmers, and solving other prob lems in a time-pressured situation. All commands are input through a touch-sensitive screen, eliminating problems ex perienced by users unfamiliar with a keyboard. At the end of the simulated response, data is provided on the amount of oil recovered, the amount of shoreline oiled, and the total cost of the cleanup. The trainee can then evaluate his actions as recorded by the computer throughout the simula tion and as presented to him in the form of graphs at the end of the simulation. The Computer-Assisted Learning program has proven to be a useful adjunct to our usual training program; it provides the On- Scene Commander trainee the opportunity to experience the time pressures and decision-making associated with an oil spill.
A methodology for building a simulation model for efficient design and performance analysis of local area networks
Authors: Chlamtac Imrich , Jain Raj 
Published: March 2007

This paper proposes a general methodology for building a soft ware tool to aid in the design and performance modeling of local computer networks. At the core of the modeling approach lies a distributed view of the network consisting of independently modeled network functional components—protocols, nodes, and resources. The network components communicate through model defined or user provided interfaces. As a consequence, the effect of network changes, component deletions, or addi tions are localized and the network model can be easily altered to highlight certain components while reducing others as re quired in different design phases. The result is that long simula tion runs of a large and fully detailed model are replaced by shorter runs of several smaller "function oriented" network models. The inherent partitioning of the system model into relatively independent functional units makes it also a poten tial candidate for a distributed simulation implementation. The given methodology is exemplified with an actual implemen tation of an Ethernet* based system configuring tool. The methodology can also be applied to other distributed systems to build efficient modular simulator programs.
Using the Interactive Financial Planning System (IFPS) for stochastic simulation
Authors: Gray Paul 
Published: March 2007

In recent years, many financial planning languages have been developed that contain capabilities for fixed-time interval simula tion. These languages differ from ordinary programming lan guages and from existing simulation languages in that they are much more English-like, produce spread sheet output, and have built-in WHAT IF and other capabilities for sensitivity analysis. These languages are simple, easy to learn, and easy to use to com municate with other professionals and with managers. This paper describes the capabilities of one of these languages, the Interactive Financial Planning System (IFPS), for simulation. These capabilities include, among others, the means for gener ating probability distributions and scenarios, providing statistical outputs as a function of time, and graphical presentation of out put distributions. Typical models written in this language are used for illustration.
An efficient generator of uniformly distributed random variates between zero and one
Authors: Thesen Arne 
Published: March 2007

A random number generator particularly well suited for simula tion work on microcomputers is presented. The generator dif fers from conventional generators in that the floating point representation of the variate is constructed directly without first going the way of an equivalent integer representation of the variate. Implementations of the generator in FORTRAN-77 and PASCAL/MT+ for the IBM PC are presented, and the results of extensive empirical tests of the generator are provided. The generator is shown to be about as fast as conventional 16-bit congruential generators but with substantially better statistical properties and at least one order of magnitude longer period.