bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Population growth, life-cycle saving, and international differences in steady-state optimal saving rates
Authors: Conroy Michael E. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Life-cycle savings theories have been a seminal development in analyses of the relationship between rational savings patterns for individuals and the accumulation of wealth or capital at the level of the society as a whole. Applications of the theories in industrialized countries never investigated the significance of large differences in birth and death rates across societies. The strong demographic components of life-cycle saving analysis are here the center of focus. Illustrative general numerical applications of a modified version of the life-cycle approach suggest that mortality differentials comparable to those presently encountered among nations are consistent with very large differentials in steady-state optimal ratios of wealth-to-income. Specific application to Peru of the model estimated by Tobin for the United States indicates that high levels of mortality, current Peruvian birth rates, and Peruvian age-income profiles imply optimal rational savings rates far below those of the United States.
The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality
Authors: Vaupel James W. , Manton Kenneth G. , Stallard Eric 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Life table methods are developed for populations whose members differ in their endowment for longevity. Unlike standard methods, which ignore such heterogeneity, these methods use different calculations to construct cohort, period, and individual life tables. The results imply that standard methods overestimate current life expectancy and potential gains in life expectancy from health and safety interventions, while underestimating rates of individual aging, past progress in reducing mortality, and mortality differentials between pairs of populations. Calculations based on Swedish mortality data suggest that these errors may be important, especially in old age.
Do couples make fertility plans one birth at a time?
Authors: Udry J. Richard 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Criteria are specified for distinguishing one-decision from sequential-decision models of fertility. Sequential decisions are not demonstrated by parity-specific differences in fertility determinants. Sequential models must demonstrate the importance of unanticipated intervening events in changing fertility plans or fertility experience. They must demonstrate that the intervening events are not caused by the fertility. Two empirical tests are designed to determine which model best fits the data. One test predicts fertility plans, the other fertility events. Both tests provide some support for sequential models.
An analysis of variations in U. S. fertility and female labor force participation trends
Authors: Devaney Barbara 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This study is based on time series data from 1947–1977 on fertility and female labor force participation, and examines (a) the effects of male relative income and female earnings on the level and timing of fertility and female labor force participation, and (b) the relative importance of variations in relative income and female wage rates in explaining the fluctuations in both fertility and female labor supply. The results suggest that relative income exerts a significant positive effect on fertility and a negative effect on female work effort. However, female wage rates appear to be the dominant factor in explaining variations in fertility and female labor force participation over the past two decades, with increases in female earnings leading to both depressed fertility and increased labor force participation of women.
Sex differences in life cycle measures of widowhood
Authors: Goldman Noreen , Lord Graham 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Using formulas which measure life cycle characteristics of widowhood as a function of life table survivorship and age at marriage, we illustrate changes in patterns of widowhood and widowerhood since 1950, as well as differences by race, by age of bride and of groom, and by age differences between spouses. Although the current inequality in the risks of widowhood and widowerhood for the average couple is mostly due to sex differences in mortality, a one year age difference between spouses has about the same impact as does a one year difference in life expectancy. Calculations based on current distributions of age of groom by age of bride indicate that the older the age of groom, the greater the age difference between spouses and the higher the likelihood of a woman outliving her husband: the typical groom who marries in his fifties faces a 4 to 1 chance that he will be outlived by his spouse.
An integrated system for demographic estimation from two age distributions
Authors: Preston Samuel H. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper presents a simple method for estimating a birth rate and a level of mortality for an intercensal period. The birth rate is estimated from the intercept of a line fitted to data and the level of mortality from the slope of that line. The formula that is developed is based upon a recent generalization of stable population relations. An estimate of childhood mortality level is an optional but significant piece of additional input. An important by-product of the procedure is an estimate of the true age distribution.
A simple model for linking life tables by survival-mortality ratios
Authors: Mitra S. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Patterns of variation in mortality can be studied by measuring changes in selected life table functions. A model is proposed in which the rate of change over time in the life table survivorship probability at any age has been assumed as proportional to the product of its own value and its complementary probability or the probability of dying by that age, where the proportion is the same for all ages and depends only on the time duration between successive life tables. The end result is that the logit functions of the survivorship probabilities at two points in time are linearly related with a slope of one. The projecting power of the model has been tested by using U.S. life tables for the years 1950 and 1970 as well as Coale and Demeny's regional model life tables. In the latter case, the model produced surprisingly close matches even when the expectations of life differed by as much as 20 years.
Improving the accuracy of migration age detail in multiple-area population forecasts
Authors: Schroeder Esther C. , Pittenger Donald B. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Population projections are often required for many geographical areas, and must be prepared with maximal computer and minimal analytical effort. At the same time, realistic age detail forecasts require a flexible means of treating age-specific net migration. This report presents a migration projection technique compatible with these constraints. A simplified version of Pittenger's model is used, where future migration patterns are automatically assigned from characteristics of historical patterns. A comparative test of age pattern accuracy for 1970-1980 indicates that this technique is superior to the commonly used plus-minus adjustment to historical rates.
Demographic responses and socioeconomic structure: Population processes in England and Wales in the nineteenth century
Authors: Friedlander Dov 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper explores some theoretical and empirical aspects related to the theory of change and multiple response. The empirical analysis focuses on 600 relatively small and homogeneous geographical units of England and Wales for the period 1851–1910. These units are classified into six identifiable socioeconomic types and the analysis is made for each of them. Two interrelated issues are studied. First, a set of explanatory variables, connected either with strain or with factors relieving strain, is constructed. The effects of these explanatory variables on nuptiality, marital fertility, and migration responses are examined for each socioeconomic type, with respect to their significance, intensity, and direction. The patterns of these effects show general consistency with multiphasic response considerations for all socioeconomic types. A significant finding in this part is that migration affects very strongly the intensity of the marital fertility decline response. The second issue deals with theoretically expected patterns of interrelationships among responses in terms of substitutability and complementarity. The theoretical interrelationships are compared with the empirical for each socioeconomic type; and in general, consistency is established. Moreover, these interrelationships can be interpreted for each socioeconomic type in a way that appears to be consistent with multiphasic response considerations. An important finding in this part is that emigration and marital fertility decline are substitute responses in agricultural-based districts. Implications of the findings are discussed.
Limit cycle oscillations of the human population
Authors: Frauenthal James C. , Swick Kenneth E. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper investigates a mathematical model for the growth of an age-structured population. The model includes the idea (due to Easterlin) that fertility is affected by the size of the cohort in which an individual is born. It is important to note that the model investigated represents only a reasonable first step in the direction of reality from the unrealistic assumption that mortality and fertility do not change with passing time. It is shown that this general model can lead to self-excited, persistent oscillations (called limit cycles in mathematical parlance) of the birth trajectory of the population. Using data for the United States from the twentieth century, it is shown that variations in the number of births are consistent with the model discussed.
Sex of Previous Children and Intentions for Further Births in the United States, 1965–1976
Authors: Sloane Douglas M. , Lee Che-Fu 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The research reported herein, using samples of women interviewed in the 1965 and 1970 National Fertility Studies and the 1976 National Survey of Family Growth, shows that the sex of women’s previous children has an effect on their subsequent fertility intentions which differs at each parity. The persistence of that effect among women with two children in particular argues strongly for including sex of previous children as an independent variable in models of fertility intentions, since the decline in family size norms makes factors which affect the decision to have (or not have) a third child increasingly important.
Evaluation of the Olsen Technique For Estimating the Fertility Response to Child Mortality
Authors: Trussell James , Olsen Randall 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
In a previous issue of this journal, Olsen proposed a technique for quantifying the fertility response to child mortality. To estimate the extent of child replacement, one needs data only on the number of children ever born and the number of child deaths for each woman. The technique involves first running a regression of the number of births on the number of deaths and then correcting the regression coefficient in order to obtain a consistent estimate of replacement. Here we evaluate the performance of the technique by seeing how well it works on a simulated set of reproductive histories for which we know the true extent of replacement. In passing, we derive an extension of the technique to handle the situation in which replacement strategies are heterogeneous. We conclude that the technique performs very well, especially in those cases where the stochastic structure of the data can be diagnosed.
Some New Techniques for Applying the Housing Unit Method of Local Population Estimation: Further Evidence
Authors: Smith Stanley K. , Lewis Bart B. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The housing unit method of population estimation is often characterized as being imprecise and having an upward bias. In an earlier paper we argued that the method itself cannot be properly characterized by a particular level of precision or direction of bias. Only specific techniques of applying the method can have such characteristics. In that paper we presented several new techniques for estimating the number of households and average number of persons per household (PPH). However, the testing of these new techniques was limited by the lack of census results against which the estimates could be compared. Complete census data on population, households, and PPH are now available and can be used to test alternate estimation techniques. In this paper we replicate the tests reported in our earlier paper using 1980 census data for Florida’s 67 counties. These tests provide further evidence that the new techniques produce more precise, less biased estimates than previously used techniques.
Mother–Child Relations and Adolescent Sexual Attitudes and Behavior
Authors: Weinstein Maxine , Thornton Arland 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
We hypothesize that children who are close to their parents are more likely to have attitudes and behavior that are consistent with their parents' values than children who are not close to their parents. Using data from a probability sample of 888 mother-child pairs of white women in the Detroit metropolitan area, we tested this hypothesis, using both mother's and child's attitudes toward premarital sexual intercourse and the child's report of whether he or she had engaged in premarital sexual intercourse. Unlike most previous work in this area, which has posited a direct association between the closeness of the mother-child relation and the child's attitudes and behavior, we found that the quality of the relation interacted with the mother's attitudes in its effects on the child's attitudes and behavior. Children with close relations with their mothers were more likely to hold attitudes and behave in a manner consistent with their mothers' own attitudes than children with more distant relations.
Pathways to Independent Living in Early Adulthood: Marriage, Semiautonomy, and Premarital Residential Independence
Authors: Goldscheider Frances K. , DaVanzo Julie 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Data from the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972 are used to examine factors influencing young adults' departure from the parental home and the initial pathways taken, including leaving home for marriage, residential semi-autonomy (Semi), and premarital residential independence (PRI). Parents' education and continuing in school decrease the likelihood of leaving home via marriage and increase the likelihood of leaving home via Semi or PRI. All other factors considered affect all pathways out of the parental home in the same direction, but in differing magnitudes. The predominant influences on PRI are indicators of modern family values, whereas the predominant influences on leaving home for marriage are measures of resources, both those of the parents and those of the young adults.
National Estimates of Cohabitation
Authors: Bumpass Larry L. , Sweet James A. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Data from the 1987–1988 National Survey of Families and Households are used to provide national estimates of cohabitation trends and levels. The rapid increase since around 1970 is documented over both birth cohorts and marriage cohorts. Almost half of the persons in their early 30s and half of the recently married have cohabited. Changes in the proportion ever married are compared with changes in the proportion who have either married or cohabited. Much of the decline in marriage has been offset by increased living together without being married. The stability of unions of various types is compared. Cohabitations end very quickly in either marriage or disruption. About 60 percent of all first cohabitations result in marriage. Cohabiting unions and marriages preceded by cohabitation are much more likely to break up than are unions initiated by marriage. Multivariate analysis reveals higher rates of cohabitation among women, whites, persons who did not complete high school, and those from families who received welfare or who lived in a single-parent family while growing up.
A New Look at the Effect of Venereal Disease on Black Fertility: The Deep South in 1940
Authors: Tolnay Stewart E. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The effect of venereal disease on black fertility is estimated for six Deep South states around 1940. Several relevant control variables are introduced, including characteristics of the socioeconomic environment and measures of possible diffusion processes that might have affected the relationship between venereal disease and fertility. The objective is to identify as precisely as possible the net effect of venereal disease on black fertility. The analyses are based on 395 counties in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina. The results indicate that venereal disease was significantly related to black fertility, but that the relationship was considerably weaker than some have suggested (most notably, Wright and Pirie, 1984). Furthermore, the revised estimates suggest that venereal infections probably accounted for around 28 percent of the historical decline in black fertility between 1875–1880 and 1935–1940. I conclude that the black fertility transition was not unicausal and that explanations for the black experience should be sought among the same causative forces considered for other populations.
An Alternative Purging Method: Controlling the Composition-Dependent Interaction in an Analysis of Rates
Authors: Xie Yu 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The purging method controlling for the composition-group interaction developed by Clogg and his associates has proven useful in demographic research. This article proposes an alternative method, partial CD purging, that controls the interaction between composition and the dependent variable. The purged rates from this new method are invariant to changes in the marginal distribution of composition, but those from the earlier purging method are not. Mathematical relationships between the proposed method and other techniques are also explored.
Influences on the Extent of Breast-Feeding: A Prospective Study in the PhiLippines
Authors: Stewart John F. , Popkin Barry M. , Guilkey David K. , Akin John S. , Adair Linda , Flieger Wilhelm 
Published: March 2007

AbstractThere has been much controversy about the impact of the health sector and the infant food industry on breast-feeding behavior. This study links causal factors to breast-feeding decisions, using a longitudinal survey of more than 3,000 Filipino mother-infant pairs. Most factors decreasing the likelihood that mothers will breast-feed seem to be related to family economics. Delivery in a private hospital, urban residence, high income, absence of spouse, and having worked for wages affect adversely the initiation of breast-feeding. Formula advertising and distribution of samples appear to have relatively little impact on feeding decisions.
Estimation of mortality from orphanhood in adulthood
Authors: Timæus Ian M. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper extends earlier research into methods for estimating adult mortality from information on the recent incidence of orphanhood. It presents a series of regression coefficients for estimating female and male mortality from synthetic cohort data on the subsequent orphanhood of those who had a living mother or father at exact age 20. Such information can be obtained either where questions about parental survival have been asked in two inquiries or by asking retrospectively about dates of orphanhood in a single survey. Although the method is somewhat sensitive to errors in the reporting of ages and dates, it is a promising source of up-to-date estimates of adult mortality that are free from bias due to the underreporting of the orphanhood of young children (“the adoption effect”).
The Effect of Imputation Procedures on First Birth Intervals: Evidence from Five African Fertility Surveys
Authors: Meekers Dominique 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
In most African societies there is little motivation to remember dates of demographic events with the level of precision required in demographic surveys. Consequently it is common that the large majority of survey respondents can provide only the calendar year of occurrence or their age at the time of the event. The World Fertility Survey Group decided to handle the problem of poor date reporting by using a computer program to impute the missing information. This article illustrates the effect of these imputation procedures on cross-national differentials in the proportion of premarital first births in Benin, Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Nigeria. The analysis demonstrates that the exceptionally low proportion of premarital first births in Ghana is an artifact of the imputation procedures.
An Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Length of Forecast Horizon on Population Forecast Errors
Authors: Smith Stanley K. , Sincich Terry 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Many studies have found that population forecast errors generally increase with the length of the forecast horizon, but none have examined this relationship in detail. Do errors grow linearly, exponentially, or in some other manner as the forecast horizon becomes longer? Does the error-horizon relationship differ by forecasting technique, launch year, size of place, or rate of growth? Do alternative measures of error make a difference? In this article we address these questions using two simple forecasting techniques and population data from 1900 to 1980 for states in the United States. We find that in most instances there is a linear or nearly linear relationship between forecast accuracy and the length of the forecast horizon, but no consistent relationship between bias and the length of the horizon. We believe that these results provide useful information regarding the nature of population forecast errors.
Socioeconomic Determinants of White and Black Males’ Life Expectancy Differentials, 1980
Authors: Potter Lloyd B. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Epidemiological transition theory suggests that two populations existing under disparate socioeconomic conditions would have different life expectancies as the result of cause-of-death differences. The effect of racial socioeconomic differentials on the total racial life expectancy differential are examined as they act through specific cause-of-death differentials. Results suggest that residential isolation of blacks has a strong effect on the total life expectancy differential as it acts through the racial homicide differential. The racial unemployment difference also has a strong effect on the total differential as it acts through the racial heart disease differential. Implications of the findings for reducing life expectancy differentials are discussed.
On the theory and measurement of the determinants of mortality
Authors: Boulier Bryan L. , Paqueo Vicente B. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This article develops a model of mortality that shows how biological, demographic, and environmental factors interact to affect an individual’s probability of dying. To illustrate the usefulness of the model, we derive from it (as special cases) the Brass system of model life tables and the proportional-hazard mortality model and apply a logit version of the model to analyze the determinants of child mortality in Sri Lanka.