bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Age-specific growth rates: The legacy of past population dynamics
Authors: Horiuchi Shiro , Preston Samuel H. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Recent developments in population mathematics have focused attention on a function that is widely available but rarely examined: the set of age-specific growth rates in a population. In particular, this set of rates is sufficient for translating the current birth rate and age-specific mortality rates into the current age distribution. This growth-rate function contains all of the pertinent features of a population’s demographic history that are required to relate major demographic functions for a particular period to one another. This article presents an expression fm the age-specific growth rate and uses it to derive an equation for age distribution. We show how the value of the age-specific growth rate is determined by a population’s demographic past and present various sets of growth rates corresponding to stylized demographic scenarios. Several noteworthy sets of growth rates observed in human populations are discussed. Finally, we explain why age-specific growth rates make it possible to determine the age distribution solely from information on current demographic conditions.
Implications of boundary choice for the measurement of residential mobility
Authors: White Michael J. , Mueser Peter R. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Analyses of residential mobility are usually conditioned on a system of geography in which territory is divided into discrete units. Types of movement are defined in terms of these units, the most important distinction being that between local mobility and migration. Here we examine explicitly the implications of the choice of the migration-defining boundary in the U.S. over the 1940–1980 period. We demonstrate how boundary choice influences the extent and character of selectivity of the mobile population by using demographic and social characteristics. It appears that over time the state line may be replacing the county line in distinguishing kinds of migrants. Further, our results point to a growing fraction of footloose migrants, not tied to local territory, identified by their migration history rather than demographic characteristics.
Stability over time in the distribution of population forecast errors
Authors: Smith Stanley K. , Sincich Terry 
Published: March 2007

AbstractA number of studies in recent years have investigated empirical approaches to the production of confidence intervals for population projections. The critical assumption underlying these approaches is that the distribution of forecast errors remains stable over time. In this article, we evaluate this assumption by making population projections for states for a number of time periods during the 20th century, comparing these projections with census enumerations to determine forecast errors, and analyzing the stability of the resulting error distributions over time. These data are then used to construct and test empirical confidence limits. We find that in this sample the distribution of absolute percentage errors remained relatively stable over time and data on past forecast errors provided very useful predictions of future forecast errors.
Marital stability throughout the child-rearing years
Authors: Heaton Tim B. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Although there is evidence that the number and ages of children influence marital stability, studies have not systematically tracked the risk of marital disruption throughout the child-rearing years. This study uses marital and fertility histories from the June 1985 Current Population Survey to examine this issue. Continuous-time regression models with ages and numbers of children as time-varying covariates are estimated. Net of controls for age at marriage, year of marriage, education, and marital duration, stability increases with family size up to the third child but starts to decline as family size reaches five or more children. Aging of children is disruptive until the youngest child reaches adulthood, after which marriages become much more stable. Arrival and aging of children is an important dynamic with strong implications for marital stability.
The hidden component in census-derived migration data: Assessing its size and distribution
Authors: Nicholson Beryl 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Comparison of Norwegian “linked” decennial census data with statistics compiled from 10 years’ migration registrations showed that the amount of movement omitted by census data was considerable. This hidden movement was of a similar order at every administrative level, but only when total movement was considered. There was wide variation between regions, migration directions, and streams. In some cases census data misrepresented the direction of net movement. Available evidence suggests that these patterns are not confined to Norway, raising the possibility that research findings based on census-derived migration data may merely be artifacts of the data.
Immigration, below-replacement fertility, and long-term national population trends
Authors: Mitra S. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The long-term demographic effects of immigration on a population experiencing below-replacement fertility are studied by assuming that the size and age composition of the immigrant population do not change over time. The size of the first-generation immigrant population becomes stationary within a time period not greater than the human life span. Thereafter, the number dying equals the number entering over any given time interval. The stationarity of the native population, among which deaths exceed births, is maintained by the compensating number of births to the immigrant population. The limiting age distribution of the country’s population, although stationary, may not decline monotonically with age and may look like a camel’s back, with one or two humps.
Age estimation from the number of teeth erupted in young children: An aid to demographic surveys
Authors: Townsend Nicholas , Hammel E. A. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The reporting of children’s ages by parents is surprisingly inaccurate in many innumerate societies, but accurate knowledge of age is important for estimating recent changes in demographic rates. The timing of the eruption of children’s teeth is largely independent of environmental influences and can provide a relatively accurate and unbiased estimate of a child’s age. We have collected published data from 42 studies of children’s dentition and have transformed them into estimates of age for children with particular numbers of teeth. We present estimates for different populations, but the lack of significant differences between these estimates justifies the use of a standard set.
What’s happening to the family? Interactions between demographic and institutional change
Authors: Bumpass Larry L. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
As soon as men and women … acquire the habit of weighing the individual advantages and disadvantages of any prospective course of action … they cannot fail to become aware of the heavy personal sacrifices that family ties and especially parenthood entail under modern conditions. (Schumpeter 1988/1942, pp. 501–502)
When Is a Father Really Gone? Paternal–Child Contact in Father-Absent Homes
Authors: Mott Frank L. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This research uses unique longitudinal data to examine the dynamics of the father’s presence or absence during a child’s first few years of life and consider the extent to which overt father-presence/absence statistics mask a continuing contact with the child’s father or other potential father figures. I document the extent to which (1) substantial proportions of children born to younger mothers never have had a biological father residing in the home, (2) “net” levels of fathers’ absence at various postbirth points mask significant “gross” flows of fathers in and out of the household, and (3) large proportions of children in homes lacking the biological father have potentially significant contact with absent fathers or new father figures.
Welfare benefits, economic opportunities, and out-of-wedlock births among black teenage girls
Authors: Duncan Greg J. , Hoffman Saul D. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This article presents a model of teenage out-of-wedlock births that incorporates the effectsof both welfare and nonwelfare economic opportunities. We construct measures of the likely “medium-run” income available to a teenage girl in the event of an out of-wedlock birth and in the absence of a birth and then estimate a logit model to determine their importance in influencing fertility behavior. The model is estimated with data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics on nearly 900 black teenagers. We find weak and statistically insignificant positive effects of Aid to Families With Dependent Children (AFDC) benefit levelsand stronger and significant negative effects of economic opportunities on the probability of AFDC-related out-of-wedlock teen births.
Adolescent sexual activity in the family context: The impact of older siblings
Authors: Haurin R. Jean , Mott Frank L. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Using approximately 2,000 sibling pairs from the ab] National Longitudinal Survey of Labor Market Experience of Youth, we examine the influence of an older sibling’s age at first sexual intercourse on the sexual initiation of a younger sibling. Hypotheses about differences by gender composition of the pair are tested, using a framework derived from social comparison theory and a two-stage failure-time model. Results provide evidence of a direct but modest-sized older sibling effect for white but not black youth. This effect is approximately equal in magnitude for same- and oppositesex siblings. Little support is offered for the greater salience and association of sexual activity for brother-brother as compared with sister-sister pairs.
Determinants of contraceptive switching behavior in rural Sri Lanka
Authors: Hamill David N. , Tsui Amy O. , Thapa Shyam 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This study examines the influence of a selected set of determinants of contraceptive method switching in rural Sri Lanka. Of interest is the question of how change in contraceptive practice at the individual level can account for patterns observed at the aggregate level. Based on calendar data on contraceptive use over a 3-year period, collected for more than 3,000 married women in a 1986 survey, the multivariate analysis shows that women who attain all or a significant proportion of their desired fertility tend to switch to more effective methods. Women who experience method failure tend to switch methods, usually to a type that is more effective. The woman’s background determinants of age and education have small but significant effects on method switching, whereas the effect of household economic well-being is not significant. There is strong indication that rural couples are practicing contraception in a nonrandom fashion, switching methods in accordance with changes in their fertility motivations and contraceptive experience.
Residential preferences and population redistribution: 1972–1988
Authors: Fuguitt Glenn V. , Brown David L. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
In seeking to explain recent trends in population distribution, there has been increased interest in residential preferences. This study is a comparison of preferences based on 1972 and 1988 national surveys, years that bracket a period of considerable change in distribution patterns. Over time there has been a small shift in preference toward cities less than 500,000 in size, primarily by those already living there. Rural settings, especially near cities, continue to be very attractive. At both times studied, more than half of those preferring a smaller or more remote place would retain this preference even if it meant 10% less income. Nevertheless, the proportion preferring to live more than 30 miles from a large city was unchanged and approximately equal to the proportion already living there at both times, indicating that a discrepancy between where people live and where they want to live is not an important basis for the upturn in nonmetropolitan growth away from large cities in the 1970s or the downturn in the 1980s.
Recent trends in the process of stratification
Authors: Grusky David B. , DiPrete Thomas A. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Using the 14 annual cross-sections from the General Social Survey, we specify a “basic model” of attainment and describe the year-by-year fluctuations in its parameters. The results are partially consistent with theories describing the gradual growth of universalistic patterns of stratification and mobility. Under a linear model of educational achievement, we find that the direct effects of race are weakening and the returns to class-based advantages are declining in tandem. The contours of the socioeconomic “gender gap” are also changing in important ways, with the male intercept declining at a rapid pace and the female term registering small and insignificant yearby-year gains. At the same time, the returns to experience and schooling are increasing for men, whereas the corresponding returns for women have remained stable over the 15-year period. This pattern of interaction effects implies that the size of the gender gap varies over time and across different population groups.
A reconsideration of the economic consequences of marital dissolution
Authors: Duncan Greg J. , Hoffman Saul D. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
We use longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to assess the economic consequences of divorce and separation for the women and men involved. In contrast to previous studies focusing exclusively on those who remain unmarried, our approach integrates the probability of remarriage into the analysis and produces a much less dramatic picture of change in economic status than analyses not incorporating remarriage. However, we also find evidence of selection bias in the subgroup of women who remarry, suggesting that currently unmarried women might not improve their economic status through remarriage as much as women who have remarried.
The demographic evolution of human populations: The role of selection and environmental factors
Authors: Demetrius Lloyd 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Selection (genetic and cultural) and environmental variation are the principal mechanisms determining patterns of demographic change in human populations. Conditions exist under which the nature and intensity of these forces can be inferred from temporal trends in the demographic variables. These conditions, which can be expressed in terms of relations between the Malthusian parameter and population entropy, provide a means for evaluating the effect of selective and nonselective factors on demographic trends in human populations. The distinction between the roles of selection and environmental factors is illustrated by a study of the demographic transition in Sweden (1778–1965). This study shows that demographic changes during the pre- and posttransitional phases are determined mainly by environmental factors, whereas the changes during the transitional phase are mainly due to cultural selection. This analysis provides, for all three phases of the demographic transition, quantitative measures of the intensity of the forces (selective and nonselective) acting on both mortality and fecundity distributions.
Occupational influences on retirement, disability, and death
Authors: Hayward Mark D. , Grady William R. , Hardy Melissa A. , Sommers David 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This research examines the alternative mechanisms by which occupations influence the nature and timing of older men’s labor force withdrawal. We specifically assess the extent to which occupational factors operate directly and indirectly on exiting events and whether occupations constrain traditional determinants of labor force participation. Based on a discrete-time hazard modeling approach, the results substantiate that the occupational task activities&#x2014;substantive complexity and physical demands&#x2014; are key elements of the work environment that are evaluated against nonwork alternatives. In the case of retirement, these aspects of occupational attractiveness function as a dominant and direct force in retirement decision making. With regard to disability, the occupational attribute of substantive complexity operates as an indirect advantage (through higher wages) by reducing the risk of disability. Indicators of career continuity also influence retirement among older workers. Finally, the results suggest that financial characteristics and health problems are central to the distribution of older workers across the alternative destination statuses of retirement, disability, and death.
Gender of children and birth timing
Authors: Teachman Jay D. , Schollaert Paul T. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
We address the impact of the gender of children on birth timing. Our findings suggest that a preference to balance the gender of children affects the timing of births, not a preference for either sons or daughters. At parity 2, women with children of the same sex time a third birth more rapidly than women with a boy and a girl. At parity 1, women with a boy time second births more rapidly than women with a girl. This seemingly anomalous finding is explained, however, by the fact that women with boys are more likely than women with girls to be married at any point in time and thus less likely to have disrupted fertility careers.
Birth-interval dynamics in rural Bangladesh and maternal weight
Authors: Ford Kathleen , Huffman Sandra L. , Chowdhury A. K. M. A. , Becker Stan , Allen Hubert , Menken Jane 
Published: March 2007

AbstractThis article reports on the results of a study conducted in rural Bangladesh on the influence of maternal weight on the components of birth intervals, including gestation and intrauterine mortality, the duration of postpartum amenorrhea, and the duration of waiting time to conception (the menstrual interval). When biological factors (in-cluding maternal age, parity, and supplementation practices) and behavioral variables, including religion, education, and occupation, were controlled, maternal weight was found to be related to the risk of intrauterine mortality and to the probability of resuming menses in the postpartum period. The implications of these findings for policies and programs in developing countries are discussed.
To what extent does breastfeeding explain Birth-interval effects on early childhood mortality?
Authors: Retherford Robert D. , Choe Minja Kim , Thapa Shyam , Gubhaju Bhakta B. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This article shows that in Nepal breastfeeding almost completely explains the effects of following birth interval on childhood mortality during the first 18 months of age and partially explains the effect of following birth interval on childhood mortality between 18 and 60 months of age. Breastfeeding does not explain the effect of preceding birth interval on childhood mortality. The analysis is based on an application of hazard models to data from the 1976 Nepal Fertility Survey.
Estimating birth stopping and spacing behavior
Authors: Ewbank Douglas C. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
A decomposition of age-specific marital fertility rates into indices related to spacing and stopping is developed by using Coale and Trussell’s indices and the first few parity progression ratios. This approach leads to estimates of the mean birth interval among low-parity births that can be used to address the issue of fertility control early in marriage. In this way the model addresses several of the most serious limitations of Coale and Trussell’s approach. The usefulness of the proposed indices is demonstrated by applications to historical data from the United States and Europe.
Measuring change and continuity in parity distributions
Authors: Pullum Thomas W. , Tedrow Lucky M. , Herting Jerald R. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Procedures are developed to allocate the change in mean fertility to the change in specific parities or groups of parities. One procedure uses the proportion at each parity and another uses parity progression ratios. Both are based on the delta method for approximating change in a function of several variables. Drawing on an analogy to survival in a life table, the relational logit model is applied to parity progression. This method allows several parity distributions to be synthesized and to have differences summarized with two parameters. The three procedures are applied to successive cohorts of white U.S. women who completed their childbearing between 1920 and 1980.
Intergenerational relations and reproductive behavior in Taiwan
Authors: Thornton Arland , Freedman Ronald , Sun Te-Hsiung , Chang Ming-Cheng 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The character of intergenerational relationships between parents and their adult unmarried children in Taiwan is consistently and systematically related to the later reproductive behavior of the children after they marry. The greater the extent to which the adult unmarried children are exposed to nonfamilial relationships and contexts in school, at work, in the use of wages, in marriage decisions, and in first place of residence after marriage, the fewer children they will have and want and the greater the likelihood that they will begin contraception for spacing rather than for limiting their number. These relationships are consistent with theories about the transformation of familial relationships and reproductive patterns in the course of development.
Biosocial foundations for adolescent female sexuality
Authors: Udry J. Richard , Talbert Luther M. , Morris Naomi M. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Despite the widespread assumption that hormones stimulate motivation for sexual behavior in adolescence, no published empirical studies have demonstrated this link. In a cross-sectional study of 78 females in the eighth, ninth, and tenth grades in public schools, we show that hormones have effects on sexual motivation and behavior. Comparison with previous results from a parallel sample of males indicates that for both sexes these effects are primarily androgenic in origin and for the most part exert their effects directly rather than through the social interpretation of age and hormone-induced pubertal development.
A reformulation of the two-sex problem
Authors: Pollak Robert A. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The ability of classical stable population theory to determine the equilibrium growth rate and age structure of a population from its vital rates in a single period depends on assuming that the observed maternity rates are equilibrium rates. This paper resolves the two-sex problem by replacing the fixed, age-specific fertility schedule of classical stable population theory by two basic relationships: a “birth matrix” and a “mating rule.” Placing certain restrictions on the birth matrix and the mating rule (BMMR), I establish that under certain plausible conditions, the BMMR model solves the two-sex problem by allowing matings and births to adjust to changes in population structure. The BMMR model thus provides an equilibrating mechanism in place of a fixed maternity schedule of classical stable population theory.