Incidence and development of validated mortality prediction model among asphyxiated neonates admitted to neonatal intensive care unit at Felege Hiwot Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Bahir Dar, Northwest Ethiopia, 2021: retrospective follow-up study
Authors: Tegegne Yibeltal Shitu , Birhan Tilahun Yemanu , Takele Habtamu , Mekonnen Fantahun Ayenew 
Published: March 2024

Abstract
Introduction
Perinatal asphyxia is failure to maintain normal breathing at birth. World Health Organization indicates that perinatal asphyxia is the third major cause of neonatal mortality in developing countries accounting for 23% of neonatal deaths every year. At global and national level efforts have done to reduce neonatal mortality, however fatalities from asphyxia remains high in Ethiopia (24%). And there are no sufficient studies to show incidence and prediction of mortality among asphyxiated neonates. Developing validated risk prediction model is one of the crucial strategies to improve neonatal outcomes with asphyxia. Therefore, this study will help to screen asphyxiated neonate at high-risk for mortality during admission by easily accessible predictors. This study aimed to determine the incidence and develop validated Mortality Prediction model among asphyxiated neonates admitted to the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit at Felege-Hiwot Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia.

Method
Retrospective follow-up study was conducted at Felege-Hiwot Comprehensive Specialized Hospital from September 1, 2017, to March 31, 2021. Simple random sampling was used to select 774 neonates, and 738 were reviewed. Since was data Secondary, it was collected by checklist. After the description of the data by table and graph, Univariable with p-value < 0.25, and stepwise multivariable analysis with p-value < 0.05 were done to develop final reduced prediction model by likelihood ratio test. To improve clinical utility, we developed a simplified risk score to classify asphyxiated neonates at high or low-risk of mortality. The accuracy of the model was evaluated using area under curve, and calibration plot. To measures all accuracy internal validation using bootstrapping technique were assessed. We evaluated the clinical impact of the model using a decision curve analysis across various threshold probabilities.

Result
Incidence of neonatal mortality with asphyxia was 27.2% (95% CI: 24.1, 30.6). Rural residence, bad obstetric history, amniotic fluid status, multiple pregnancy, birth weight (< 2500 g), hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (stage II and III), and failure to suck were identified in the final risk prediction score. The area under the curve for mortality using 7 predictors was 0.78 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.82). With ≥ 7 cutoffs the sensitivity and specificity of risk prediction score were 0.64 and 0.82 respectively.

Conclusion and recommendation
Incidence of neonatal mortality with asphyxia was high. The risk prediction score had good discrimination power built by rural residence, bad obstetric history, stained amniotic fluid, multiple pregnancy, birth weight (< 2500 g), hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (stage II and III), and failure to suck. Thus, using this score chart and improve neonatal and maternal service reduce mortality among asphyxiated neonates.