bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
HIERARCHICAL BAYESIAN MODELLING OF SOCIAL VARIATION IN THE AGE DEPENDENCE OF DISABILITY PREVALENCE
Authors: Graham Patrick 
Published: November 2005

SummaryMotivated by a study of social variation in the relationship of functional limitation prevalence to age, this paper examines methods for modelling social variation in health outcomes. It is argued that, from a Bayesian perspective, modelling the dependence of functional limitation prevalence on age separately for each social group, corresponds to an implausible prior model, in addition to leading to imprecise estimates for some groups. The alternative strategy of fitting a single model, perhaps including some age‐by‐group interactions but omitting higher‐order interactions, requires a strong prior commitment to the absence of such effects. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling is proposed as a compromise between these two analytical approaches. Under all hierarchical Bayes analyses there is strong evidence for an ethnic group difference in limitation prevalence in early‐ to mid‐adulthood among tertiary‐qualified males. In contrast, the single‐model approach largely misses this effect, while the group‐specific analyses exhibit an unrealistically large degree of heterogeneity in gender‐education‐specific ethnicity effects. The sensitivity of posterior inferences to prior specifications is studied.
ESTIMATING PROCESSES OF COUNTS FROM CROSS‐SECTIONAL AGGREGATE DATA, WITH AN APPLICATION TO MULTISTATE LIFE TABLES AND HEALTH EXPECTANCIES
Authors: Heathcote Christopher R. , Puza Borek D. 
Published: November 2005

SummaryThis paper discusses the estimation of time‐dependent probabilities of a finite state‐space discrete‐time process using aggregate cross‐sectional data. A large‐sample version of multistate logistic regression is described and shown to be useful for analysing multistate life tables. The technique is applied to the estimation of disability‐free, severely disabled and other disabled survival curves and health expectancies in Australia, based on data from national health surveys in 1988, 1993 and 1998. A conclusion is that there has been a general upward trend in the future time expected to be spent in a state of disability, the picture being more pessimistic for males than females. For example, during 1988‐1998 the estimated increase in male life expectancy at birth of 2.7 years is decomposed as a decrease of 1.2 years in disability‐free health (life) expectancy and increases of 1.3 and 2.6 years, respectively, in states of severe disability and other disability.
ESTIMATION OF A PROPORTION USING SEVERAL INDEPENDENT SAMPLES OF BINOMIAL MIXTURES
Authors: Wood G.R. , Lai C.D. , Qiao C.G. 
Published: November 2005

SummaryThis paper considers a sequence of independent counts, with each count arising from a mixture of binomial distributions; the mixing distribution is fixed but the number of trials varies from count to count. In this common situation, an estimate of the underlying mean binomial proportion is needed. Two estimators are in general use: the arithmetic average and a weighted average of the observed proportions. Variances of the two estimators are compared and used to decide which estimator is preferred in a given context. The relative merits depend on the distribution of the proportions and the numbers of trials used.
A ROBUST BAYES FACTOR FOR LINEAR MODELS
Authors: Taplin Ross H. 
Published: November 2005

SummaryThis paper proposes a new robust Bayes factor for comparing two linear models. The factor is based on a pseudo‐model for outliers and is more robust to outliers than the Bayes factor based on the variance‐inflation model for outliers. If an observation is considered an outlier for both models this new robust Bayes factor equals the Bayes factor calculated after removing the outlier. If an observation is considered an outlier for one model but not the other then this new robust Bayes factor equals the Bayes factor calculated without the observation, but a penalty is applied to the model considering the observation as an outlier. For moderate outliers where the variance‐inflation model is suitable, the two Bayes factors are similar. The new Bayes factor uses a single robustness parameter to describe a priori belief in the likelihood of outliers. Real and synthetic data illustrate the properties of the new robust Bayes factor and highlight the inferior properties of Bayes factors based on the variance‐inflation model for outliers.
TWO‐STAGE SUPPORT ESTIMATION
Authors: Müller Samuel 
Published: November 2005

SummaryThis paper presents a two‐stage procedure for estimating the conditional support curve of a random variable X, given the information of a random vector X. Quantile estimation is followed by an extremal analysis on the residuals for problems which can be written as regression models. The technique is applied to data from the National Bureau of Economic Research and US Census Bureau's Center for Economic Studies which contain all four‐digit manufacturing industries. Simulation results show that in linear regression models the proposed estimation procedure is more efficient than the extreme linear regression quantile.
ASSESSING AND TESTING FOR THRESHOLD NONLINEARITY IN STOCK RETURNS
Authors: Chen Cathy W.S. , So Mike K.P. , Gerlach Richard H. 
Published: November 2005

SummaryThis paper proposes a test for threshold nonlinearity in a time series with generalized autore‐gressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) volatility dynamics. This test is used to examine whether financial returns on market indices exhibit asymmetric mean and volatility around a threshold value, using a double‐threshold GARCH model. The test adopts the reversible‐jump Markov chain Monte Carlo idea of Green, proposed in 1995, to calculate the posterior probabilities for a conventional GARCH model and a double‐threshold GARCH model. Posterior evidence favouring the threshold GARCH model indicates threshold nonlinearity with asymmetric behaviour of the mean and volatility. Simulation experiments demonstrate that the test works very well in distinguishing between the conventional GARCH and the double‐threshold GARCH models. In an application to eight international financial market indices, including the G‐7 countries, clear evidence supporting the hypothesis of threshold nonlinearity is discovered, simultaneously indicating an uneven mean‐reverting pattern and volatility asymmetry around a threshold return value.
LARGE AND MODERATE DEVIATIONS PRINCIPLES FOR KERNEL ESTIMATION OF A MULTIVARIATE DENSITY AND ITS PARTIAL DERIVATIVES
Authors: Mokkadem Abdelkader , Pelletier Mariane , Worms Julien 
Published: November 2005

SummaryThis paper studies the large deviations behaviour of the kernel estimator of a probability density f, by considering the case when the kernel takes negative values. It establishes large and moderate deviations principles for the kernel estimators of the partial derivatives of f. The estimators of the derivatives exhibit a quadratic behaviour for both the large and the moderate deviations scales, whereas for the density estimator there is a classical gap between the large deviations and the moderate deviations asymptotics.
EFFICIENT ESTIMATION IN REGRESSION FRAILTY OR TRANSFORMATION MODELS BASED ON AN ALGORITHM
Authors: Vonta Filia 
Published: November 2005

SummaryThis paper considers a regression frailty or transformation model in which the structural parameter is the vector of regression coefficients and the nuisance parameter is a vector of arbitrarily high dimension. It proposes jointly (implicitly) defined parameter estimators which have been proved to be consistent and asymptotically efficient, and develops an algorithmic procedure that provides these estimators. The behaviour of the algorithm is illustrated by analysing simulated and real data.
A WEIGHTED RANK MEASURE OF CORRELATION
Authors: Pinto da Costa Joaquim , Soares Carlos 
Published: November 2005

SummarySpearman's rank correlation coefficient is not entirely suitable for measuring the correlation between two rankings in some applications because it treats all ranks equally. In 2000, Blest proposed an alternative measure of correlation that gives more importance to higher ranks but has some drawbacks. This paper proposes a weighted rank measure of correlation that weights the distance between two ranks using a linear function of those ranks, giving more importance to higher ranks than lower ones. It analyses its distribution and provides a table of critical values to test whether a given value of the coefficient is significantly different from zero. The paper also summarizes a number of applications for which the new measure is more suitable than Spearman's.
THE DOGIT ORDERED GENERALIZED EXTREME VALUE MODEL
Authors: Fry Tim R.L. , Harris Mark N. 
Published: November 2005

SummaryThis paper introduces the Dogit ordered generalized extreme value (DOGEV) model, for handling discrete variables that are ordered and heterogeneous. In particular, the DOGEV model can be applied to questionnaire responses on questions allowing a discrete set of ordered possible responses, where there is a preference for particular responses and possibly multiple modes in the data. The DOGEV model combines a model for choice set generation with the ordered generalized extreme value model. The paper illustrates the model using two empirical examples: a model of inflationary expectations and a model for students' evaluations of teaching.
A CHARACTERIZATION OF CONTINUOUS DISTRIBUTIONS VIA REGRESSION ON PAIRS OF RECORD VALUES
Authors: Bairamov I. , Ahsanullah M. , Pakes Anthony G. 
Published: November 2005

SummaryThe exponential type is characterized in terms of the regression of a (possibly non‐linear) function of a record value with its adjacent record values as covariates. Monotone transformations extend this result to more general settings, and these are illustrated with some specific examples.
ON THE COVERAGE PROBABILITY OF CONFIDENCE INTERVALS IN REGRESSION AFTER VARIABLE SELECTION
Authors: Kabaila Paul 
Published: November 2005

SummaryThis paper considers a linear regression model with regression parameter vector β. The parameter of interest is θ= aTβ where a is specified. When, as a first step, a data‐based variable selection (e.g. minimum Akaike information criterion) is used to select a model, it is common statistical practice to then carry out inference about θ, using the same data, based on the (false) assumption that the selected model had been provided a priori. The paper considers a confidence interval for θ with nominal coverage 1 ‐ α constructed on this (false) assumption, and calls this the naive 1 ‐ α confidence interval. The minimum coverage probability of this confidence interval can be calculated for simple variable selection procedures involving only a single variable. However, the kinds of variable selection procedures used in practice are typically much more complicated. For the real‐life data presented in this paper, there are 20 variables each of which is to be either included or not, leading to 220 different models. The coverage probability at any given value of the parameters provides an upper bound on the minimum coverage probability of the naive confidence interval. This paper derives a new Monte Carlo simulation estimator of the coverage probability, which uses conditioning for variance reduction. For these real‐life data, the gain in efficiency of this Monte Carlo simulation due to conditioning ranged from 2 to 6. The paper also presents a simple one‐dimensional search strategy for parameter values at which the coverage probability is relatively small. For these real‐life data, this search leads to parameter values for which the coverage probability of the naive 0.95 confidence interval is 0.79 for variable selection using the Akaike information criterion and 0.70 for variable selection using Bayes information criterion, showing that these confidence intervals are completely inadequate.
How Useful Is the Genuine Savings Rate as a Sustainability Indicator for Regions within Countries? Australia and Queensland Compared
Authors: Brown Richard P. C. , Asafu‐Adjaye John , Draca Mirko , Straton Anna 
Published: November 2005

AbstractThis article shows how macroeconomic indicators of sustainable development can be applied to the Queensland economy. While recognising the complex and contentious theoretical and practical issues in deriving the Genuine Savings Rate (GSR) to serve as such an indicator, we use the World Bank's methodology, which includes only mineral depletion, deforestation and carbon dioxide emissions as environmental terms, to estimate GSRs for Queensland for the period 1989 to 1999, and compare these to World Bank estimates of Australia's GSR for the same period. We find that Queensland has a higher rate of natural resource depletion and a lower GSR than the whole of Australia. We also examine how well the World Bank GSR performs as a ‘headline’ measure of overall sustainability, review criticisms of the GSR, and compare its implicit policy implications with those of net state savings, and of the GSR plus a suite of other indicators.
Labour Market Policy Developments in Japan: Following an Australian Lead?
Authors: Gaston Noel , Kishi Tomoko 
Published: November 2005

AbstractIn recent times, Japan has experienced a rapid expansion in its service sector, increases in casual and part‐time employment and record unemployment. In addition, there has been an associated rise of freeters and NEETs—predominantly young workers with tenuous labour market attachment. While somewhat slow in initiating policy responses, the Japanese government responded to these structural changes by reforming its existing employment policies. In this article we argue that recent changes in the nature of Japan's labour market policies appear to have been driven by some of the same factors which led to the radical overhaul of Australia's own labour market policies.
The Role of Gender among Low‐Paid and High‐Paid Workers
Authors: Miller Paul W. 
Published: November 2005

AbstractUsing data from the 2001 Australian Census of Population and Housing Household Sample File, this article analyses the gender wage gap across the wage distribution by using a quan‐tile regression approach. The results show that there is a much larger gender wage gap among high‐paid workers than there is among low‐paid workers. Moreover, this wage gap tends to increase reasonably uniformly when one is moving up through the wage distribution. Institutional factors, the work environment and social norms are all areas that may require attention in order to redress the undervaluation of women's skills.
Pro‐anorexia, weight‐loss drugs and the internet: an ‘anti‐recovery’ explanatory model of anorexia
Authors: Fox Nick , Ward Katie , O'Rourke Alan 
Published: November 2005

AbstractThis paper explores the online ‘pro‐anorexia’ underground, a movement that supports those with anorexia and adopts an ‘anti‐recovery’ perspective on the disease. While encouraging a ‘healthy’ diet to sustain an anorexic way‐of‐life, the movement also recommends the radical use of weight‐loss pharmaceuticals to pursue and maintain low body weight, in contrast to their conventional use to treat obesity. Using ethnographic and interview data collected from participants in the ‘Anagrrl’ website and online forum, we analyse the pro‐anorexia (or ‘pro‐ana’) movement in terms of its underlying ‘explanatory model’ of the disease, and contrast it with medical, psychosocial, sociocultural and feminist models that encourage a ‘normalisation’ of body shape and weight. We suggest that for participants in pro‐ana, anorexia represents stability and control, and Anagrrl offers support and guidance for those who wish to remain in this ‘sanctuary’. We discuss the pro‐anorexia movement's use of the internet to facilitate resistance to medical and social theories of disease, and its subversion of pharmaceutical technologies.
The mundane realities of the everyday lay use of the internet for health, and their consequences for media convergence
Authors: Nettleton Sarah , Burrows Roger , O'Malley Lisa 
Published: November 2005

AbstractThe internet is now a major source of health information for lay people. Within the medical, sociological and popular literatures there have been three main responses to this development. We classify these as ‘celebratory’, ‘concerned’ and ‘contingent’. This paper falls into the third category and, drawing on techniques of discourse analysis, examines people's accounts of their use of online health resources. It identifies six implicit rules – which we call ‘rhetorics of reliability’– that people readily draw upon when articulating why they trust some online sources and not others. In addition participants locate their accounts within broader discursive frameworks in order to present themselves as ‘sensible’ users. The article concludes by suggesting that there is an emerging concordance between the lay use of the internet for health and illness and dominant (generally) biomedical conceptions of what constitutes ‘good quality’ health information.
A case of Darier's disease successfully treated with topical tacrolimus
Authors: Rubegni P , Poggiali S , Sbano P , Risulo M , Fimiani M 
Published: November 2005

AbstractTacrolimus is a macrolide that inhibits T‐cell activation. The most extensive experience with topical tacrolimus has been in treating atopic dermatitis but it has been used in various skin diseases, including Hailey–Hailey disease, with encouraging results. We report a case of extensive Darier's disease successfully treated with topical tacrolimus, after suspension of oral isotretrinoin due to major depression.
Second modernity as a research agenda: theoretical and empirical explorations in the ‘meta‐change’ of modern society
Authors: Beck Ulrich , Lau Christoph 
Published: November 2005

AbstractIn this article we are reformulating the theory of reflexive modernization as an empirical research programme and summarize some of the most recent findings which have been produced by a research consortium in Munich (integrating four universities, funded by the German Research Society (DFG)). On this basis we reject the idea that Western societies at the beginning of the twenty‐first century move from the modern to the post‐modern. We argue that there has been no clear break with the basic principles of modernity but rather a transformation of basic institutions of modernity such as the nation‐state and the nuclear family. We would suggest, therefore, that what we are witnessing is a second modernity. Finally, we reform the theory of reflexive modernization in reaction to three uttered objections.
Global generations: social change in the twentieth century
Authors: Edmunds June , Turner Bryan S. 
Published: November 2005

AbstractThe concept of generation within sociology has until recently been a marginal area of interest. However, various demographic, cultural and intellectual developments have re‐awakened an interest in generations that started with the classic essay by Karl Mannheim. To date, the sociological literature has generally conceptualized generations as nationally bounded entities. In this paper we suggest that the sociology of generations should develop the concept of global generations. This conceptual enhancement is important because the growth of global communications technology has enabled traumatic events, in an unparalleled way, to be experienced globally. The late nineteenth and early twentieth century was the era of international generations, united through print media, and the mid‐twentieth century saw the emergence of transnational generations, facilitated by new broadcast communications. However, the latter part of the twentieth century is the period of global generations, defined by electronic communications technology, which is characterized, uniquely, by increasing interactivity. The 1960s generation was the first global generation, the emergence of which had world‐wide consequences; today with major developments in new electronic communications, there is even more potential for the emergence of global generations that can communicate across national boundaries and through time. If in the past historical traumas combined with available opportunities to create national generations, now globally experienced traumas, facilitated by new media technologies, have the potential for creating global generational consciousness. The media have become increasingly implicated in the formation of generational movements. Because we are talking about generations in the making rather than an historical generation, this article is necessarily speculative; it aims to provoke discussion and establish a new research agenda for work on generations.
Understanding generations: political economy and culture in an ageing society
Authors: Vincent John A. 
Published: November 2005

AbstractSociological understanding of generations can be enhanced by avoiding defining them rigidly as chronological cohorts but rather linking people's accounts of their generational experience with an historically informed political economy. It then becomes possible, for example, to understand the complexity of generational politics. This paper uses data on the ‘War Generation’ taken from the Exeter Politics of Old Age project to link an empirically based political economy of generational inequality with a cultural sociology of generations. The ‘War Generation’ recognizes itself and is referred to by others in terms of a common identity. It is also an historical generation; its values, attitudes and, above all, sense of national solidarity and mutual obligation were forged in the direct experience of war. But it is also divided by divergent economic interests in property and pension rights based on the historical experience of the life course by successive groups and this segmentation can be observed in political action. The political culture of the War Generation manifests both continuity and change. Understanding these dynamics requires listening to people constructing their worlds, understanding their full range of historical experiences, and analysing the conditions for their conflicts and their cohesion.
The new gender essentialism – domestic and family ‘choices’ and their relation to attitudes1
Authors: Crompton Rosemary , Lyonette Clare 
Published: November 2005

AbstractThis paper critically examines two strands within contemporary gender essentialism – that is, the argument that men and women are fundamentally different and that it is this ‘difference’ that explains the continuing social and material differences between the sexes. The first strand we examine is Hakim's ‘preference theory’, which has argued that persisting sex differences in employment patterns are an outcome of the ‘choices’ made by different ‘types’ of women. We next examine the claims of populist conservative feminism, that has argued that women (and men) in partnerships will be happier if they adopt a gender role traditionalism in the domestic sphere. Our empirical findings suggest that neither of these theoretical explanations are supported by our data, which is derived from the samples of six countries participating in the International Social Survey Programme Family 2002 module.