bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
A BUDGET FOR STERLING AND A BUDGET FOR JOBS
Authors: Dicks Geoffrey , Robinson Bill 
Published: January 2008

In our assessment macroeconomic policy is now tighter as consequence of the Budget than we had assumed in February. We interpret the Budget speech as indicating higher interest rates (tighter monetary policy) and, in consequence, a stronger exchange rate. On this basis we find that the prospects for inflation are slightly better than before, though output is weaker. Additionally we forecast a PSBR in 1985‐6 of £ 63/4bn, below the official forecast of £7.1bn but in line with our February forecast. Of £7.1bn but in line with our February forecast. Because output is lower, however, this implies a tighter fiscal policy.The other main change to our forecast is unemployment. The changes to National Insurance Contribution scales represent a very cheap way of reducing the cost of employing the lower paid, and we estimate that these measures, together with the extension of the Youth Training Scheme and Community Programme, will create an extra 375,000 jobs and training places by 1988. However these effects are partially offset by the effects on output of the higher interest rates and higher exchange rate that we are now forecasting. When account is also taken of the increase in labour supply that follows any increase in employment, the net effect on unemployment is to reduce it by 300,000 by 1988 compared with our February forecast.
The London Business School with Gower Publishing
Authors: Dicks Geoffrey , Keating Giles , Robinson Bill 
Published: January 2008

Collapsing oil prices and a falling dollar set the background to a Budget in which the Chancellor, hamstrung by lower oil revenues, was seen as having little room for manoeuvre. In fact the sharp fall in the sterling price of oil has provided him with the perfect excuse for not making significant cuts in personal income tax that were largely irrelevant to the needs of the economy. Instead of a boost to household demand we have had, thanks to OPEC, a transfer to companies in the form of a reduction in costs. This should enable them to expand output against a background of falling inflation. Our post‐Budget assessment of macroeconomic prospects (Section I), made on the Treasury's assumption of a $15 oil price, shows output growing by 2 1/2 per cent this year and inflation falling below 3 per cent in 1987. We are thus less optimistic than the Treasury about output but more optimistic about inflation.How was the Chancellor able, within the confines of the Medium‐Term Financial Strategy, to give anything away having lost so much oil revenue? A detailed analysis of the PSBR forecast (Section II) reveals good reasons why non‐oil tax revenues should be some £3 1/2n higher than forecast this time last year. But, because we still expect public spending to be above the official figures, our PSBR forecast is £1bn higher than the Treasury's.Although the macroeconomic impact of the Budget was small (especially in relation to that of the fall in oil prices which preceded it), it continued the process of tax reform. We focus, in Section III, on the new proposals to deal with the problem of the pension fund surpluses to which we drew attention in the November issue of Financial Outlook. We conclude that the proposed measures could have a larger effect on tax revenues in the longer term than is indicated by the Treasury's Budget estimates.
The London Business School with Gower Publishing
Authors: ROBINSON BILL 
Published: January 2008

Immediately after the year‐long coal strike the prospects for the industry appeared remarkably bright. Normal production was resumed more quickly than expected. The fall in the exchange rate, especially against the dollar, had greatly lessened the threat from cheap imported coal. The number of miners employed in deep mines was quickly reduced from 180,000 to 140,000, and the closure of uneconomic pits enabled production in the new super‐pits to be stepped up. The resulting sharp rise in productivity meant that the underlying position of the industry was close to break‐even, and at the coal prices prevailing last year could even have made a modest profit.The fall in the price of oil has plunged the industry into a new crisis. To preserve coal's market share, its price must follow oil prices downwards, which will drastically reduce the amount of coal that can be profitably produced in this country. with obvious implications for employment. In this Forecast Release we present some calculations (using the approach we adopted in earlier articles published in October and December 1984) which show the scale of the required reductions, and consider the policy implications. We conclude that there 13 no case for constraining coal prices to remain above true market‐clearing levels, since this amounts to a concealed tax on coal‐ (and hence electricity‐) users which would hamper the employment‐creating growth of manufacturing industry. There is however a strong case for allowing the coal industry to increase its borrowing to cover the deficits that result from keeping higher‐cost pits in production in order to reduce future dependence on imported oil.
Briefing Paper: Public expenditure control in the 1980s
Authors: LIKIERMAN ANDREW , BLOOMFIELD SUSAN 
Published: January 2008

The past few months have seen well‐leaked ministerial bids for additional resources as the government prepares to consider allocations for the 1987‐8 financial year. There has also been an increasing number of calls from within the Conservative party for more public expenditure as a response to poor performance in the polls. The first part of this Briefing Paper provides a new dimension to the discussion of future spending plans by analysing the record of controlling public expenditure in the past. It outlines the reasons for uncertainty and the various ways by which the government has sought to keep expenditure under control and the limitations of the available information.On the basis of this analysis we look at the future and conclude that the government is unlikely to be able to keep expenditure within the plan for the coming year, or indeed for the rest of the decade. There has been a regular pattern of overspending in the past and this cannot be entirely explained by such factors as the miners' strike and the Falklands. Another conclusion is that the government has so far chosen to be seen to be keeping plans for expenditure growth down rather than providing realistic plans which allow for overspending, and is likely to continue to do so in the future.At a disaggregated level, analysis of the pressures on three major spending departments – Defence, the DHSS and Education and Science – suggests that these are unlikely to be completely offset by efficiency savings. Indeed it may be more difficult to make savings in the future because of past success in eliminating inefficiencies and slack in the system. The freedom of manoeuvre available to the government, including the use of the reserve, adjusting proceeds from the privatisation programme and the possibility of adjusting the figures themselves, is less than in the recent past. And the greatest potential scope for manoeuvre – policy changes to cut spending in areas that have a significant impact on the totals – is effectively denied a government wishing to present a caring image in the run‐up to a general election.
WORLD OUTLOOK
Authors: Dicks Geoffrey , Breedon Francis 
Published: January 2008

World output, which was strengthening immediately prior to last October, appears to have barely suffered in the short term from the stock market crash. Apart from an early reaction by US consumers ‐ since reversed ‐ demand is proving robust and in early 1988 OECD industrial production is, we estimate, 6 per cent up on year‐earlier levels, with GNP more than 4 per cent higher. Indeed such is the strength of activity that the present balance of risk is not that recession is imminent but that inflation may pick up again. In the United States, where activity rates are at their highest level for eight years and unemployment is at a fourteen‐year low, monetary policy has been tightened and interest rates are moving higher. The Bundesbank is keen to follow suit and the BoJ is keeping the situation under review. Nevertheless, with wages in most countries still adjusting to the low inflation rates of the last two years, there is little evidence yet that prices are accelerating.We expect to see world interest rates edging higher in the second half of the year as recorded inflation picks lip. But we believe that underlying inflation remains low and that, even on the assumption that oil prices return to 18 a barrel, OECD consumer price inflation will peak early next year at a little over 4 per cent. Tighter monetary policy is also expected to hold back demand over the next 12 months. Consequently, we expect some weak‐ ness in output in the first half of next year but discount the possibility of a severe recession. GNP growth in the OECD area is forecast to decline from the 3 per cent rate of 1987–8 to a little over 2 per cent next year and to a sustainable 2½ per cent p.a. over the medium term.
House Prices, Housing Investment and Demography Forecasts from the LBS/Abbey National Model of the UK Housing Market
Authors: MILNE ALISTAIR , CLARK ANDRÉ 
Published: January 2008

A new housing sector has been incorporated into the London Business School model. This article outlines the new housing model, summarizes the research which has gone into its construction, and presents a forecast of the UK housing market. Using the new housing model, we forecast a moderate recovery in the housing market in the later part of 1991 and 1992. This recovery is however short‐lived and does not result in such high rates of house price increase as previous house price booms (Chart 1).Cuts in interest rates following entry to the exchange rate mechanism of the EMS prompt a recovery in house prices from the middle of 1991. House price inflation then peaks with an increase in average UK house prices in 1992 of 11 per cent over the previous year. Increases in real personal disposable income are modest, by the standards of the 1980s, and for this reason the recovery does not develop the momentum of previous house price booms. House price inflation moderates again in 1993 falling back to around 7 per cent. Housing starts and housing investment recover only slightly from their present depressed levels.the recovery in house prices is weaker than that foreseen in our April Forecast Release. This is because real personal disposable income is now forecast to grow more slowly during 1991. Sterling's membership of the ERM is followed by a fall in interest rates, but it is the timing of interest rate cuts rather than their magnitude which differs from the earlier forecast. The changed profile of interest rates has altered the house price forecast only marginally.
Economic Viewpoint The Shape of the UK Recovery
Authors: CURRIE DAVID , DICKS GEOFFREY 
Published: January 2008

Monthly economic data combined with the more optimistic tone of CBI and other surveys suggest that the recession may be drawing to a close. By the early summer it was becoming apparent that output was no longer falling; now it appears that the economy is in transition front the ‘bumping along the bottom’ phase, which lasted through the summer months, to the beginnings of a modest recovery in output and demand. The focus of interest is therefore switching away front the timing of recovery towards its shape and strength.We have previously argued that the recovery would be led by consumer spending, that industry would not resume investment spending un ti1 demand elsewhere was picking up, and that although exports have held up remarkably well, taking some of the strain of the downturn in domestic demand, there was little prospect of a surge in world trade to provide the pre‐conditions for an export‐led recovery. What was and is needed is a recovery in consumer confidence, with a willingness to borrow at lower interest rates showing up in a reduction in the personal savings ratio.But the recovery starts with the personal sector still having a large debt overhang from the 1988‐9 boom, which will inevitably inhibit new borrowing. Meall while the credit crunch is restricting the ability of banks to lend. Together these imply only a limited response to the interest rate cuts of the last year and would, in the absence of the EMS link with high German interest rates, argue for further interest rate reductions. But high post‐unification German rates put a floor under UK rates and will slow the recovery. The economy will do little more in 1992 than make up for the output losses of 1991 and our forecast (as in June) suggests that it will not be until 1993 that previous output peaks are passed and unemployment is stabilized.
Economic Viewpoint: Economic Models and Economic Forecasting: Ptolemaic or Copernican?
Authors: HOLLY SEAN 
Published: January 2008

Economic forecasters have come in for a lot of criticism in recent months. But this is not new. The failure to predict the boom in 1988 and ensuing inflation and balance of payments problems led to some serious re‐examination of the structure of the main macroeconometric models in the UK. The speed with which the UK economy moved into sharp recession in the second half of 1990‐ also appeared to catch most forecasters on the hop.This Briefing Paper is not directly about forecasting; it is about macroeconometric models. However, forecasting provides by far the most extensive use of these models. Not all macroeconomic forecasters use a formal econometric model ‐ some City economists find a spreadsheet more than adequate ‐ but those that do find that they are an invaluable aid to clear thinking and provide an effective way of filtering all of the information that is available, in one form or another, about the economy.This paper was originally intended to provide a retrospective review of the development of UK macro‐models since the late 1970s, coinciding broadly with my period at London Business School. However, it became clear that there was a need to argue more generally in favour of macro‐modelling, given the numerous assaults that this activity has sustained over the last 15 years. I want to demonstrate that the conduct of research in this area ‐ at the very least in the UK ‐ has been, and continues to be, a progressive research strategy in the sense in which philosophers of science use this term. I believe that macro‐modellers, because they have an obligation to forecast and to make the forecast public, are closer to how theoretical constructs in economics conflict with the observation of economic events, and provide a more robust testing ground for economic theories than the relatively narrow ‐ though very important ‐ confines of single equation statistical testing, that dominate academic journals.This should not mean that every new theoretical idea should be expected to be able to survive immediately the rigours of testing within an existing macro‐model. One of the attractions of recent developments in macroeconomic theory has been an explicit attempt to seek to try to reconcile macroeconomics with micro‐economic reasoning and to derive macroeconomic principles from how rational, maximizing individuals can be expected to behave in a market economy. There is always a need periodically to re‐examine the basic postulates of any area of economics, especially one such as macroeconomics, which provides the basis for the conduct of national and international economic policy, and for providing explanations for economic cycles.Macro‐econometric model building is a worthwhile exercise because it confronts theoretical models of how the macro‐economy is supposed to work with the hard lessons of experience. The use of these models for forecasting is therefore crucial to their continued growth and development.
COUNTING THE COST OF HIGHER BASE RATES
Authors: Sentence Andrew 
Published: January 2008

It is a brave Chancellor of the Exchequer who raises interest rates when inflation is at record low levels and there are few signs of overheating. But Kenneth Clarke is clearly trying to give substance to his commitment ‐ made in June's Mansion House Speech ‐ to pursue stable monetary and fiscal policies. In that speech, the Chancellor told his City audience that the government had “not created the conditions for the strongest recovery in Europe in order to throw it away by creating yet another boom followed by bust”.There is widespread agreement with the Chancellor's objectives. But the difficult question for economic management is how high interest rates will need to go in order to contain inflation and keep the economy on course. In this Forecast Release, we examine this question as well as assessing the likely impact of the first rise in base rates for five years.
THE DETERMINATION OF THE SALT ERROR OF INDICATORS AND THE ACCURATE ESTIMATION OF THE pH OF SOLUTIONS BY COLORIMETRIC METHODS
Authors: SAUNDERS J. T. 
Published: January 2008

Summary.1. It is shown that, using the sulphonphthalein indicators recommended by Clark and Lubs, it is possible to detect differences in pH of no more than 0·02.2. A curve is deduced by means of which it is possible to determine the salt error of Cresol Red for any difference of concentration between the buffer mixture and the solution of unknown pH.3. A simple method of determining the salt error of any other indicator by comparison with Cresol Red is outlined.
THE MEASUREMENT OF THE CARBON DIOXIDE OUTPUT OF FRESH WATER ANIMALS BY MEANS OF INDICATORS
Authors: SAUNDERS J. T. 
Published: January 2008

Summary.Tables are given showing the relationship of the pH of a dilute solution of carbonates to the total CO2 content. Animals are placed in such dilute solutions which are coloured with indicators, contact with the atmosphere is prevented by a layer of oil and the pH as measured by the changing tint of the indicator records also the output of CO2. An output of CO2 of no more than 7middot;0001 c.c. is easily and accurately measured.
THE SPAWNING OF ECHINOIDS
Authors: FOX. H. MUNRO 
Published: January 2008

Summary.(1) The extrusion of the genital products of echinoids is due to the contraction of muscle fibres in the gonad walls, more abundant in the ovary than in the testis. The contraction of these muscles can be artificially stimulated.(2) A spawning male stimulates ripe individuals of both sexes which are in the neighbourhood to spawn. A spawning female stimulates ripe males to spawn.(3) After spawning Strongylocentrotus lividus re‐forms ripe eggs in nine days at a temperature of 17–19°.
A MATHEMATICAL THEORY OF NATURAL AND ARTIFICIAL SELECTION. PART II THE INFLUENCE OF PARTIAL SELF‐FERTILISATION, INBREEDING, ASSORTATIVE MATING, AND SELECTIVE FERTILISATION ON THE COMPOSITION OF MENDELIAN POPULATIONS, AND ON NATURAL SELECTION.
Authors: HALDANE J. B. S. 
Published: January 2008

Summary.Expressions (2·1), (3·1), (4·1), (5·1) are found for the composition of Mendelian populations subjected to partial self‐fertilisation, inbreeding, assortative mating, or selective fertilisation, and equations (2·2), (3·2), (4·2), (5·2) derived for the effect of selection on such populations. The effect of selection is greatly increased by inbreeding and self‐fertilisation.
THE MECHANISM OF CELL‐DIVISION I. THE FORCES WHICH CONTROL THE FORM AND CLEAVAGE OF THE EGGS OF ECHINUS ESCULENTUS
Authors: GRAY J. 
Published: January 2008

Summary.1. Soon after fertilisation the protoplasm at the surface of the egg of Echinus esculentus is differentiated off from the internal phase of the egg. The egg is thus divisible into two phases, the ectoplasm and the endoplasm.2. Except during the process of cleavage fine processes of endoplasm extend out into the ectoplasm.3. The outer surface of the ectoplasm is of a solid extensible nature. It is not markedly elastic. The underlying portion of the ectoplasm is fluid.4. When cleavage occurs the ectoplasm tends to collect in the segmentation furrow and eventually divides the two portions of endoplasm from each other.5. The normal form of the fully divided cell is due to the pressure exerted on the endoplasm by the ectoplasm.6. The ectoplasm is only stable in the presence of calcium and potassium. It has different osmotic properties to those of the endoplasm. It rapidly shrinks in dilute acids.7. During cleavage the normal form of the cleavage furrow is due to the force exerted by the ectoplasm against the force exerted by the asters.8. The form and extent of the cleavage furrow depend on the position and size of the asters. The asters are capable of deformation by the ectoplasmic pressure.9. Evidence is presented to show that the growth of the two asters must lead to a redistribution of the different phases of the protoplasm (peripheral endoplasm, and ectoplasm), such as is actually observed. Further, the final result of the enlargement of the asters must lead mechanically to normal cleavage. There are, thus, two essentials for cleavage, (i) the cell must be differentiated into two immiscible layers, ectoplasm and endoplasm, (ii) the cell must contain sufficiently large asters to bring about a redistribution of the endoplasm round these two centres.10. The variations in the types of cleavage characteristic of other animal cells can be brought about in Echinoderm eggs by varying either the extent of the force exerted by the ectoplasm, or by varying the size or position of the two asters.11. Cell‐division in Echinoderm eggs is the direct result of the asters reaching a critical size.In conclusion, I wish to express my gratitude to Mr R. Elmhurst, Director of the Marine Station, Millport, N.B., for providing me with facilities at Millport, and for his unfailing assistance in maintaining a constant supply of material during the period 1921‐24.
SPERMATOGENESIS OF LITHOBIUS FORFICATUS
Authors: NATH VISHWA 
Published: January 2008

Summary.1. The spermatogonium is a somewhat spindle‐shaped cell with granular mitochondria and a few curved Golgi rods.2. During the growth phase a spermatogonium enlarges into a giant egg‐like spermatocyte.3. Each spermatocyte contains granular mitochondria, a large number of highly curved Golgi elements and curious cytoplasmic fibres which at times attain huge dimensions. Each Golgi rod may have a distinct archoplasmic sphere associated with it.4. In a centrifuged spermatocyte the cytoplasmic fibres are thrown at one end but the mitochondria and the Golgi elements remain uniformly scattered.5. The cytoplasmic fibres are well preserved with Mann‐Kopsch and chromeosmium. They are destroyed to a large extent by fixatives containing acetic acid. Hence all the earlier workers do not figure them.6. The “metaplasm” and the “formations ergastoplasmiques” of Blackman and Bouin brothers respectively are really the Golgi elements which are not completely destroyed by acetic acid.7. During meiosis the mitochondria and the Golgi elements are distributed into two sub‐equal parts.8. When the spermatid is formed most of the Golgi rods assume the form of rings.9. All the mitochondria and the Golgi elements go into the tail of the sperm and directly form the tail sheath.10. The acrosome is probably secreted by a few Golgi rings which get stuck to the anterior face of the nuclear membrane of the maturing sperm. It is very prominent in the ripe sperm.11. A few small granules constantly occur on that portion of the nuclear membrane of the maturing sperm from which the axial filament starts. They are intensely blackened with omit acid and are very probably of the Golgi origin.