A Stochastic Model for Predicting Variations in Reservoir Rock Properties
Authors: Bennion D.W. , Griffiths J.C. 
Published: December 2007

Abstract
A mathematical model, which does not assume a priori that stratification exists, but was designed to test for the stratification was developed. The model segmented the reservoir horizontally into areas of common variance, then divided it vertically into strata (if strata were present). Next, trend surface techniques were used to determine the lateral extent and variation of each stratum. The model was tested on two reservoirs (sandstone and limestone) using porosity as the reservoir rock property. The sandstone reservoir contained approximately 60,000 samples from 2,000 cored wells, while the limestone reservoir had approximately 24,000 samples from 430 cored wells. Within the areas of common variance tested, the model was able to distinguish four separate lithological units or zones in the sandstone reservoir, four in the Marly section and seven in the Vuggy section of the limestone reservoir.
Introduction
To accurately predict the movement and production of fluids from a reservoir rock, it is necessary that the reservoir engineer have a knowledge of the rock properties and their distribution throughout the reservoir. For this study, a reservoir rock is defined as a solid containing interconnecting holes or voids which occur relatively frequently and are dispersed within the rock in a regular or random manner. The fraction of bulk volume that these interconnecting voids occupy is called porosity. The rock must also possess sufficient permeability to allow fluids to move through it and it may be composed of one or more strata or lithological units. A stratum or lithological unit as defined in this study is a body or volume of reservoir rock whose properties are so distributed that its lateral and vertical extent can be traced throughout or through a portion of the reservoir, Operationally, the existence of strata are questionable unless the variance within strata is less than among strata. Within the past few years computers have been widely used as a tool for calculating movement and production of fluids from reservoirs. Most prediction models require some type of a mathematical description of certain reservoir rock properties. In the past, most of these models have been relatively simple. Some have assumed vertical variation but no lateral variation, while others have assumed lateral variation but no vertical variation. In general, most of these models have not used functional relationships to predict reservoir rock properties as functions of position. This study was to develop a model which would predict lateral and vertical variations of reservoir rock properties. Since samples are usually available only from a small portion of the total reservoir rock, it seemed logical that if measurements from these samples were to be used to infer the properties of the actual reservoir, the data should be treated statistically as a sample from the total population (reservoir). Therefore, the model developed in this study to predict reservoir rock properties was a stochastic model. The model was tested using porosity (a macroscopic reservoir rock property) measurements from two reservoirs - the first, a sandstone reservoir from which 60,000 samples were obtained; and the second, a limestone reservoir with 24,000 samples. Several investigators have proposed methods to determine the vertical and areal variation of a reservoir rock property. Stiles, Dykstra and Parsons and Suder and Calhouns have all developed waterflooding prediction techniques which assume vertical variation but no lateral variation. Stiles developed a method to segment a reservoir arbitrarily using frequency distribution. Law suggested that porosity has a normal frequency distribution and that permeability has a log-normal frequency distribution.
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