bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Parity-specific fertility intentions and uncertainty: the United States, 1970 to 1976
Authors: Morgan S. Philip 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
A theoretical and analytic model of fertility intentions is proposed which treats “don’t know” responses and other uncertain responses as distinct from more firm intentions. Methodologically, these analyses show that “don’t know” responses need not be treated as missing data, but instead are both valid and meaningful responses. Furthermore, eliminating these uncertain respondents would have the negative effects of distorting across survey comparisons in intentions due to shifts in aggregate uncertainty, reducing the likelihood of accurately detecting shifts in fertility intentions, and lessening the representatives of the sample analyzed. Substantively, in conjunction with Morgan (1981), these results show that the sharp 1965–76 decline in the likelihood of intending more births at parities 2 through 5 occurred as women halted childbearing at minimal acceptable levels and postponed further childbearing. With time (or age), this delayed fertility became fertility about which the respondent was uncertain and, finally, fertility foregone. Since 1970, similar shifts are observed at parities 0 and 1, perhaps foreshadowing an increase in voluntary childlessness and one-child families.
The impact of class, education, and health care on infant mortality in a developing society: The case of rural Thailand
Authors: Frenzen Paul D. , Hogan Dennis P. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Demographic and social factors affecting infant mortality in rural northern Thailand are examined using log-linear modifiedmultiple regression models and data drawn from a representative sample of married couples in Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai provinces. Demographic factors do not account for the effects of variations in parental ability or willingness to provide adequate infant care. The final model estimated incorporated both these social dimensions of child care. Parental ability, measured by father’s social class, mother’s health information, and local community development levels, continued to have significant independent effects upon infant survival. Parental willingness, measured by parent’s beliefs about intergenerational wealth transfers, no longer had a significant effect net of other social variables, but infant survival was still affected by whether both parents wanted a birth.
The contribution of medical measures to the decline of mortality from respiratory tuberculosis: An ageperiod-cohort model
Authors: Collins James J. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The decline of mortality in the more developed nations has been related to two major influences, economic development and the introduction of medical measures. The contribution of medical measures has been a source of continuing controversy. Most previous studies employ either a birth cohort or calendar year arrangement of mortality data to address this controversy. The present study applies an age-period-cohort model to mortality from respiratory tuberculosis in England and Wales, Italy, and New Zealand in an attempt to separate economic influences from that of medical measures. The results of the analysis indicate that while the overall contribution of medical measures is small when examined by calendar year, specific birth cohorts both in Italy and in England and Wales benefited substantially from these measures. The environmental conditions in New Zealand, however, were such that the introduction of medical measures barely affected declining mortality levels from respiratory tuberculosis.
Trend and variation in the seasonality of U.S. fertility, 1947–1976
Authors: Seiver Daniel A. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper documents the postwar pattern of seasonality of births, for the United States and its divisions, using a simple time-varying parameter model. Variations over time and over space in seasonality are analyzed. In general, the South exhibits the greatest seasonal variation, and the most dramatic changes in seasonality. In later sections the hypothesis that the spread of air conditioning is responsible for the postwar changes in seasonality is tested, and a link between hormones and seasonality is speculated upon. A final section has a short summary and several questions for future research.
Estimation of period-specific gross migration flows from limited data: Bi-proportional adjustment approach
Authors: Nair P. S. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Two models, hierarchical in terms of input data requirements, are proposed to estimate place-to-place gross migration flows during a specified time period. In the first, the input data required are lifetime migration flows and the marginal totals of period migration, usually available from national censuses. The estimational algorithm is a ‘bi-proportional adjustment’ technique (and its variant) that assumes structural similarity between lifetime and period migration flows. The second model is designed to account for possible structural deviations in recent migratory patterns. Calibration of the procedure to replicate Indian and Korean data confirms high validity of estimation.
Intention and Uncertainty at Later Stages of Childbearing: The United States 1965 and 1970
Authors: Morgan S. Philip 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
While births may be dichotomous, fertility intentions are not inherently so. Intentions are predictions about the future and, as such, are couched in considerable uncertainty. Ignoring this uncertainty hides much of what could be learned from data on fertility intentions. This paper presents a model which allows analysis of the full range of intentions. After selecting a sample of women in the later stage of childbearing (e.g., those who intend fewer than two additional children) from the 1965and 1970 National Fertility Studies, it is shown that: (1) substantial portions of women at this stage of the reproductive life cycle were indeed uncertain of their parity-specific intention; (2) this certainty, like more firm intentions, varies by age and parity as the model predicts; and (3) there were significant shifts in the level of certainty between 1965 and 1970. Specifically, while intentions for third, fourth, and fifth births declined, more women “didn’t know” if they intended to have another child or not. Among those not intending another child, more seemed uncertain of this intention in 1970 than did comparable women in 1965. In contrast, those intending another child seemed more certain. These changes in intention and uncertainty indicate that the observed decline in intended parity was tentative. Post-1970 evidence suggests that this tentative decline has become an unequivocal one.
A Dynamic Analysis of Migration: An Assessment of the Effects of Age, Family and Career Variables
Authors: Sandefur Gary D. , Scott Wilbur J. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper examines the utility of viewing migration in the context of work careers and family life cycles. We do this by studying migration as a discrete state, continuous time process. We find that the inverse relationship between age and migration is due almost completely to the effects of family life cycle and work career variables. Further, we find that job- or locationspecific resources, prestige and wage deter migration.
A Note on the Changing Geography of Cancer Mortality within Metropolitan Regions of the United States
Authors: Greenberg Michael R. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
An investigation made of the geography of cancer mortality rates within the most populous metropolitan regions of the United States and the New Jersey-New York-Philadelphia metropolitan corridor shows that during the early 1950s, as expected, central city counties had substantially higher cancer mortality rates, especially respiratory and digestive, than did suburbs. Two decades later, differences between the central cities and the suburbs had narrowed and sometimes disappeared.
Population Density and Fertility in 22 Indian Villages
Authors: Firebaugh Glenn 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Do agriculturists in the Third World sometimes adjust to increasing population density by having fewer children? Over-time data (1961–1972) for 22 farm villages in India point to such a possibility. Cross-sectionally, villages with higher density tend to have lower fertility, even with controls for village caste composition, prior fertility, female literacy, and agricultural production. Similarly, the regression coefficient for village density is negative when the cross-sections are “pooled.” Population density apparently has an inhibiting effect on fertility in these villages.
The Eventual Frequencies of Kin in a Stable Population
Authors: Pullum Thomas W. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Associated with every real birth cohort of women is a set of probabilities {fk} of eventually having k daughters. With a variant of stable population theory, these probabilities are used to generate the entire probability distributions, as well as all moments, for all categories of kin who are female and female-related. With additional assumptions, a full two-sex model for all kin also is given. The two-sex model is applied to a cohort of U.S. women born in the mid-twentieth century, suggesting plausible frequencies of kin in a stationary population.
Statistical and Historical Analyses of Nations Which Deviate From the Size-Density Law
Authors: Stephan G. Edward , McMullin Douglas R. , Stephan Karen H. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
We examine nations which deviate significantly from the −2/3 sizedensity slope previously observed for the aggregated political subdivisions of 98 modern nations and previously derived from the theory of timeminimization. We correct Stephan’s original list of deviant nations, demonstrate that all slopes more negative than −2/3 were due to the erroneous inclusion of cities in the original data sets, develop a theory to account for the less negative deviant slopes, and test the theory both through statistical manipulation of current data and through analysis of available historical data.
Determinants of Cumulative Fertility in Ghana
Authors: Tawiah E. O. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The relatively few studies conducted on fertility differentials in Ghana have not controlled for the effect of important demographic variables, such as age at first marriage and current age of respondent. This paper attempts a multivariate analysis of the relationship between cumulative fertility and age at first marriage, level of education, religion, form of marriage and residence of husband. Data drawn from a census sample survey in 1971 include 72,816 currently married females aged 15–49 years. Age at first marriage was inversely related to cumulative fertility. The differentials were more pronounced for older women. Among the older women, the differentials were larger for rural than urban women. There were also significant fertility differentials associated with level of education, religion and form of marriage. Husband’s residence was a poor predictor of cumulative fertility. As a policy measure, it is suggested that priority be given to providing young women with more education or employment opportunities as an alternative to early marriage.
Measurement and Replication: Evaluating the Consistency of Eight U. S. Fertility Surveys
Authors: Swicegood C. Gray , Morgan S. Philip , Rindfuss Ronald R. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper addresses the comparability of data from eight national fertility surveys conducted in the United States between 1955 and 1980. We examine the extent to which substantive conclusions about the levels and correlates of the timing offirst birth vary across these data sources by comparing samples of women who were eligible to be included in more than one study. Results obtained from Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and logistic regression analyses of several measures of timing indicate few study effects. Thus findings based on data from one survey can be replicated with comparable data from another. One notable exception is the relationship between contraceptive use prior to the first birth and the timing of that birth. The contraceptive variable appears to be poorly measured, leading to unstable estimates of the relationship. In general, our results suggest: (1) the feasibility of pooling data from the various surveys when modeling delayed childbearing; and (2) reasonable accuracy in assessing trends in the timing of first birth from multiple data sources.
Population Redistribution and Changes in the Size-Density Slope
Authors: Stephan G. Edward , Stephan Karen H. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
As regional population density increases territorial units tend to subdivide. For maximum societal time-efficiency the slope relating the logarithms of unit areas to those of unit densities should be −2/3. When boundaries become fixed, however, observed slopes tend to drift toward a value of zero. It was earlier hypothesized that such slope-erosion was due to increasing concentration of the population. Historical data for the primary political divisions of ten nations shows general support for the hypothesis.
An Evaluation of estimates of underenumeration in the census and the age pattern of mortality, philadelphia, 1880
Authors: Condran Gretchen A. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The schedule of mortality by age for Philadelphia’s 1880 population classified by sex and race showed aberrations from Coale and Demeny West, South, and North model life tables. Deviations from standard age patterns of mortality were especially pronounced for the black population. The question addressed in this paper is whether the alternative age patterns of mortality are produced by underenumeration in the 1880census or by actual variations in the age–specific mortality experience. The conclusion was reached that the underenumeration of the urban population, especially the blacks, exceeds estimates for the national population. In addition, the results indicated that the black population faced risks of dying that genuinely differed from standard age patterns. An attempt to use a Brass logit model to generalize the black mortality experience met with success for females but not for males.
Children and marital disruption: A replication and update
Authors: Bumpass Larry L. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Data from the 1980 June Current Population Survey are used to estimate the incidence and duration of marital disruption as experienced by children. Rates during the 1977–1979 period suggest that about twofifths of children born to married mothers will experience the disruption of that marriage while they are children. When children born before their mothers’ first marriage are included, half of recent cohorts are likely to spend some time in a single parent family. These rates increased consistently over the 1970s. For the majority of those who experience a marital disruption, over five years are likely to elapse before the mother remarries. Furthermore, about half of the children who go through a divorce and remarriage will experience the breakup of the new family as well. At the same time, the interval between separation and divorce is less than a year for most children involved. There are major differences in these rates by race and important differences as well by education and age of mother. Replication of our earlier estimates for comparable periods was quite good for the estimates of the experience of marital dissolution, but somewhat less so for the analysis of mother’s subsequent remarriage.
The analysis of linkages in demographic theory
Authors: Arthur W. Brian 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Many seemingly different questions that arise in the analysis of population change can be phrased as the same technical question: How, within a given demographic model, would variable y change if the age- or time-specific function f were to change arbitrarily in shape and intensity? At present demography lacks the machinery to answer this question in analytical and general form. This paper suggests a method based on modern functional calculus for deriving closed-form expressions for the sensitivity of demographic variables to changes in input functions or schedules. It uses this “linkage method” to obtain closed-form expressions for the response of the intrinsic growth rate, birth rate, and age composition of a stable population to arbitrary marginal changes in its age patterns of fertility and mortality. It uses it also to obtain expressions for the transient response of the age composition of a nonstable population to time-varying changes in the birth sequence, and to age-specific fertility and mortality patterns that change over time. The problem of “bias” in period vital rates is also looked at.
Components of change in the number of households: 1970–1980
Authors: Sweet James A. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
There was an increase from 62.8 to 79.1 million households in the United States during the 1970s. The number of households increased much more rapidly than the population. This paper decomposes this growth in the number of households into components associated with changing age and marital status composition and changing age by marital status-specific propensities to form households. About one-third of the increase in the number of households was due to increased age by marital status propensity to form households, and two-thirds was due to shifts in the age by marital status distribution and population growth. The increased propensity to form households had its major impact at ages under 35, and primarily among never-married persons. The composition component had its primary impact at ages 25–44 as a result of the baby boom, and also because of the increased fractions never married and separated and divorced.
Place, race and differential occupational opportunities
Authors: Semyonov Moshe , Hoyt Danny R. , Scott Richard I. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
A large body of literature investigating the link between black percentage in the community and occupational differentiation, has found disparities to be greater in places where blacks are in a higher proportion. The present paper discusses first, theoretical perspectives and methodological techniques employed in past research; second, examines the issue in terms of the relative odds of the races for incumbency in a series of occupational groupings; and third, analyzes the effect of percentage black on race–linked occupational differentiation across 124 major American cities. Using log-linear procedures, blacks, relative to whites, are much more likely to be in unskilled and semiskilled manual occupations, while whites, relative to blacks, are far more likely to be in white-collar and upper-status positions. Moreover, blacks’ denial of access to higher-status positions, their channeling to lower-status work, and their ability to overflow into specific intermediate-status occupations are found to be greatly influenced both by percentage black as well as other community characteristics. The findings are discussed in light of sociological theories suggesting that the issue cannot be understood solely by the competition hypothesis. One must also consider the overflow and queuing explanations.
Values and Disvalues of Children in Successive Childbearing Decisions
Authors: Bulatao Rodolfo A. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The values and disvalues that wives and husbands in the Philippines, South Korea, and the United States attach to having another child are described from national survey data. Loglinear models are used to demonstrate that both country and parity affect value and disvalues rankings, but respondent’s sex does not. The differences in values and disvalues across parities suggest a multistage model of family formation, with perceptions of successive children linked to periods in family development. It is argued that this multistage. model is consistent with changes in the value of children in the fertility transition.
The Use of Hypothetical Cohorts in Estimating Demographic Parameters under Conditions of Changing Fertility and Mortality
Authors: Zlotnik Hania , Hill Kenneth 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The indirect methods of demographic estimation available to date are often inadequate to estimate levels in the presence of trends. The use of measures relative to hypothetical cohorts to minimize the effectsoftrends and estimate period levels is described. Procedures allowing the estimation of intersurvey levels of fertility, child mortality and adult mortality are illustrated using data from Thailand and Peru.
Racial Differences in Per Capita Income, 1960–76: The Importance of Household Size, Headship, and Labor Force Participation
Authors: Bianchi Suzanne M. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Racial differences in average per capita income are decomposed, as are changes over time for both races. The 1960–76 decline in household size accounted for 13 percent of the per capita income inprovement of both races. Whereas real increases in earnings of husbands contributed most to improvements in well-being in husband-wife households, increases in income from sources other than earnings were most important to female headed households. During a period in which a growing proportion of both races resided in female headed households and racial differences in living arrangements widened, the per capita income of female headed households relative to husband-wife households declined.
Variations in interstate migration of men across the early stages of the life cycle
Authors: Sandefur Gary D. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper examines the impact of job characteristics and of length of residence in one place on the likelihood of interstate migration for young men at different points in the early life course. An event history analysis of a sample of U.S. white males between the ages of 14 and 39 indicates that job rewards and location-specific resources vary at different stages of the life cycle, that the effects of some of these job-related factors differ according to marital status, and that the rate of interstate migration is significantly more dependent on length of residence for married men with children than for single men.
Reproductive impairments in the united states, 1965–1982
Authors: Mosher William D. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The first national estimates of current fecundity status of women of all marital statuses indicate that, in 1982, about 5.1 million women were unable to have a future birth but would have liked to. About 2.7 million had difficulty bearing children, and the other 2.4 million were surgically sterile for noncontraceptive reasons. Since 1965, infertility was unchanged overall and in most age groups, but increased among wives aged 20–24. This paper explores a number of methodological and substantive questions related to reproductive impairments, such as the frequency of intercourse, the duration of infertility, and the possible causes of trends.
Desired fertility, the “up to god” response, and sample selection bias
Authors: Jensen Eric 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
An unresolved question in the analysis of survey data relating to fertility attitudes and beliefs is how non-numeric responses to questions on ideal family size should be treated. This paper demonstrates that simply dropping “up to God” responses will bias regression results. An unbiased estimator is presented which explicitly models the way in which observations are selected into the sample. The estimator is then employed on Guatemalan and Indian data. No support for the notion that women who answer “up to God” are women who would have given relatively large numeric answers is found in these two samples.