bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Using On‐Line Process Data to Improve Quality: Challenges for Statisticians*
Authors: MacGregor John F. 
Published: May 2007

SummaryIn the process industries measurements on a large number of process variables are routinely collected at regular intervals by on‐line computers. This paper makes a case for incorporating these process variables into Statistical Process Control (SPC) schemes. Multivariate statistical methods such as Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Partial Least Squares (PLS) can be used to project these data down into low dimensional spaces where analysis, monitoring and diagnosis are easily performed. Strong justifications for taking this approach are presented and examples are given.The statistical process control community has been slow in adapting to the data explosion brought about by the computer era. It has continued to stick with traditional control charts on the quality variables and ignored this rich source of additional information on the process. This paper explores some of the reasons for this and argues that the SPC community must adapt rapidly or lose control of the field to scientists and engineers. The paper also tries to induce statisticians into looking more seriously at the many unsolved problems in this area of reduced rank multivariate statistics.
Geographical Information Systems, Spatial Analysis and Public Policy: the British Experience
Authors: Worrall Les , Bond Derek 
Published: May 2007

SummaryGeographic information systems (GIS) have received considerable academic and practitioner attention in the last ten years. It is our view that these tools have been considerably oversold to public sector organisations‐particularly local government‐many of whom have failed to achieve the benefits they expected. In our paper, we attempt to develop a broad definition of GIS and discuss the relationship between GIS and policy analysis, spatial decision support systems, spatial analysis and spatial modelling. We also seek to explore how GIS fits into the management information systems and information architectures of public sector organisations and examine some of the human and organisational tensions which GIS adoption and use have brought about. Where possible, we have used examples of how GIS has been used to inform public development in several areas though these have generally been in academic settings and not in public sector organisations.
The New View on Editing
Authors: Granquist Leopold 
Published: May 2007

SummaryNumerous evaluation and other studies show that the heavy cost of editing cannot be justified by quality improvement. It is necessary to replace the old paradigm‐the more and tighter the checks and recontacts, the better the quality‐by a new‐focus the editing on identifying and collecting data on errors, problem areas, and error causes to provide a basis for a continuous improvement of the whole survey vehicle.The corner stone of the new view on editing is that the entire set of the query edits should be designed meticulously, be focused on errors influencing the estimates, and be targeted on existing error types which can be identified by edits, and finally that the effects of the edits should be continuously evaluated by analysis of performance measures and other diagnostics, which the process should be designed to produce.The paper is a short introduction to modern editing under the new view. It presents, also, some facts to the low efficiency of traditional editing, and explains it by giving a historical review of editing.
Benchmarking by State Space Models
Authors: Durbin J. , Quenneville B. 
Published: May 2007

SummaryWe have a monthly series of observations which are obtained from sample surveys and are therefore subject to survey errors. We also have a series of annual values, called benchmarks, which are either exact or are substantially more accurate than the survey observations; these can be either annual totals or accurate values of the underlying variable at a particular month. The benchmarking problem is the problem of adjusting the monthly series to be consistent with the annual values. We provide two solutions to this problem. The first of these is a two‐stage method in which we first fit a state space model to the monthly data alone and then combine the results obtained at this stage with the benchmark data. In the second solution we construct a single series from the monthly and annual values together and fit a state space model to this series in a single stage. The treatment is extended to series which behave multiplicatively. The methods are illustrated by applying them to Canadian retail sales sereis.
Software for Learning and for Doing Statistics
Authors: Biehler Rolf 
Published: May 2007

SummaryThe community of statisticians and statistics educators should take responsibility for the evaluation and improvement of software quality from the perspective of education. The paper will develop a perspective, an ideal system of requirements to critically evaluate existing software and to produce future software more adequate both for learning and doing statistics in introductory courses. Different kinds of tools and microworlds are needed. After discussing general requirements for such programs, a prototypical ideal software system will be presented in detail. It will be illustrated how such a system could be used to construct learning environments and to support elementary data analysis with exploratory working style.
Intangible Economy and its Implications for Statistics and Statisticians*
Authors: Goldfinger Charles 
Published: May 2007

SummaryThis paper presents an interpretation of major changes affecting the modern economy. Our postulate is that the defining trend is the shift to the intangible. The source of economic value and wealth is no longer the production of material goods but the creation and manipulation of dematerialised content. The logic of dematerialisation is pervasive and ubiquitous and affects all sectors and activities. It profoundly transforms economic relationships and interactions, the ways firms and markets are organised and transactions are carried out. It is also unsettling, to the extent that it runs squarely against some of the key tenets of the conventional logic of economics. The intangible economy raises a whde series of measurement issues. More fundamentally, it changes the role, the function, and the perception of economic measurement data. Official agencies no longer have the monopoly of economic data: a lively and diversified measurement and monitoring industry has emerged. Statisticians need to undertake a comprehensive appraisal of their business. Adaptingto the new environment will require major changes in three key areas: conceptual foundations, modus operandi and temporal outlook. If measurement systems are to capture the essence of the economy of today and tomorrow, intangibles have to move from the periphery to the core of these systems.
A Perspective on the Accuracy of Economic Observations
Authors: Kenessey Zoltan 
Published: May 2007

SummaryIn 1950 appeared the first edition of Oskar Morgenstern's Famous book, The Accuracy of Economic Observations. Nearly half a century later it is timely to return to Morgenstern's diagnosis and to contemplate his therapeutic recommendations. Morgenstern's vision can and should inform the consideration of the topic today because of the continued validity of many of his findings. His work still provides stimuli for studying the general problems of measurement, the varying requirements for accuracy, the issues of aggregate macroeconomic measures, and the prospects for economic and social measurement. This is so even if some of the bleaker assessments by Morgenstern, notwithstanding their technical merits, provide little or no practical guidance for statistical activities. In this context it is enlightening to recall the different practical attitudes adopted by Keynes and by some of his contemporaries in Germany regarding theoretical difficulties with aggregate macroeconomic data.
A Unified View of Signal Extraction, Benchmarking, Interpolation and Extrapolation of Time Series
Authors: Dagum Estela Bee , Cholette Pierre A. , Chen Zhao‐Guo 
Published: May 2007

SummaryTime series data are often subject to statistical adjustments needed to increase accuracy, replace missing values and/or facilitate data analysis. The most common adjustments made to original observations are signal extraction (e.g. smoothing), benchmarking, interpolation and extrapolation. In this article, we present a general dynamic stochastic regression model, from which most of these adjustments can be performed, and prove that the resulting generalized least square estimator is minimum variance linear unbiased. We extend current methods to include those cases where the signal follows a mixed model (deterministic and stochastic components) and the errors are autocorrelated and heteroscedastic.
Professional Development for Teachers of probability and Statistics: Into an Era of Technology
Authors: Watson Jane M. 
Published: May 2007

SummaryThe focus of this paper is the professional development of teachers of probability and statistics at school level. Within a world where the statistics curriculum is changing at school level, the professional development needs of teachers of statistics are changing and the technology to meet these needs is changing as well. This paper reviews the work in the field, describes the development of a multimedia package for professional development of statistics teachers and looks to the futrue.
Bayesian Comparison of ARIMA and Stationary ARMA Models
Authors: Marriott John , Newbold Paul 
Published: May 2007

SummaryTime series analysts have long been concerned with distinguishing stationary “generating processes” from processes for which differencing is required to induce stationarity. In practical applications, this issue is addressed almost invariably through formal hypothesis testing. In this paper, we explore some aspects of the Bayesian approach to the problem, leading to the calculation of posterior odds ratios. Interesting features arise in the simplest possible variant of the problem, where a choice has to be made between a random walk and a stationary first order autoregressive model. We discuss in detail the analysis of this case, and also indicate how our approach extends to the more general comparison of an ARIMA model with a stationary competitor.
The Measurement and Analysis of Poverty and Inequality: An Application to Spanish Conurbations
Authors: Bellido N.P. , Jano M.D. , Ortega F.J. López , Martín‐Guzmán M.P. , Toledo M.I. 
Published: May 2007

SummaryPoverty as a multidimensional phenomenon can be approached from different points of view. In this paper we study poverty in large towns in Spain taking into consideration three different definitions: a) relative monetary poverty, or scarcity of resources as compared with population averages, b) poverty measured through physical indicators, i.e. deprivation of certain goods, and c) subjective poverty. This last one appears to be related to inequality, which is also considered and analyzed. The source of statistical information used is the Spanish Household Budget Survey of 1990–91. Possibilities and drawbacks of this survey in the analysis of poverty and inequality are also reviewed.
Training Employees for African Statistical Offices
Authors: Ching'anda Enock F. , Ntozi James P.M. 
Published: May 2007

SummaryA review of the organizational set‐up of a national statistical office, its staffing levels and subjects covered has been described. Two groups of employees of a statistical office are considered with respect to the teaching of statistics, namely those already in employment and those expected to be employed by a statistical office. The Statistical Training Programme for Africa (STPA), under which the present study was undertaken, improvement and strengthening of statistical training programmes for employees or expected employees of a statistical office, are described including selected aspects of the programme. Teaching programmes for those currently in employment with the objective of improving their work performance are also described. Achievements and problems of the programme are given. In conclusion a new framework for revitalisation of teaching of statistics in Africa in the 1990s is mentioned.
Design‐based or Prediction‐based Inference? Stratified Random vs Stratified Balanced Sampling
Authors: Brewer K. R. W. 
Published: May 2007

SummaryEarly survey statisticians faced a puzzling choice between randomized sampling and purposive selection but, by the early 1950s, Neyman's design‐based or randomization approach had become generally accepted as standard. It remained virtually unchallenged until the early 1970s, when Royall and his co‐authors produced an alternative approach based on statistical modelling. This revived the old idea of purposive selection, under the new name of “balanced sampling”. Suppose that the sampling strategy to be used for a particular survey is required to involve both a stratified sampling design and the classical ratio estimator, but that, within each stratum, a choice is allowed between simple random sampling and simple balanced sampling; then which should the survey statistician choose? The balanced sampling strategy appears preferable in terms of robustness and efficiency, but the randomized design has certain countervailing advantages. These include the simplicity of the selection process and an established public acceptance that randomization is “fair”. It transpires that nearly all the advantages of both schemes can be secured if simple random samples are selected within each stratum and a generalized regression estimator is used instead of the classical ratio estimator.
Social Change: Measurement and Theory*
Authors: Garonna Paolo , Triacca Umberto 
Published: May 2007

SummarySocietal change, which takes a variety of directions and forms and in no way can be assimilated or reduced to a single dimension, is often accompanied by a perception of insufficient understanding and lack of control. There is a frustrated need for mastering complexity and instability, separating the voluntary from the involuntary, the intended from the unintended, opportunities from risks, getting to the real causes and dominating the uncertain implications of social change. Social change catches us unprepared and confused.In this context statistics are generally considered a fundamental instrument of knowledge, but also part of the problem! In the public debate and in the specialized literature, the ability to measure social phenomena through current statistics and indicators is increasingly questioned. Data‐it is claimed‐are lacking, particularly longitudinal data; their quality (accuracy, relevance, timeliness, comparability, etc.) should be improved; indicators do not provide early warning signals, policy performance evaluation, and a precise indication of outcomes. Statistics cannot be used as a reliable and timely basis for decision making by individuals, organizations, governments, and for understanding these decisions. In some cases, statistics have been accused of giving a misleading and false picture of reality: do we measure the real extent of social exclusion and unemployment? Do we fully capture the quality of life and the degradation of the environment? Mismeasurement has been deemed by some commentators as being responsible for the wrong focus in inflation and stabilization policies, science and technology, unemployment and poverty. The productivity paradox, the informal economy, failure to measure welfare and the quality of urban life are instances where statistics do not seem to provide complete and satisfactory answers to the demand for information and knowledge. Our paper illustrates how, quite independently of measurement techniques and data production processes, the inadequacy of the conceptual framework may explain mismeasurement in relation to complex (multidimensional) and dynamic social phenomena. It is then to social theories, explanations and interpretations that statisticians need to turn, in order to come to grips with the new challenges in social measurement.We will develop this thesis looking at a few cases where measurement issues can be connected to both theoretical and empirical difficulties. The statistical gap which reveals itself in the mismeasurement or difficult measurement of social phenomena is closely interconnected with the social science gap. Only close collaboration between statisticians and social scientists can bring about continuous advancement in social science and quality improvement in social statistics.
Statistical Integration Through Metadata Management
Authors: Colledge Michael J. 
Published: May 2007

SummaryFaster and more versatile technology is fuelling user demand for statistical agencies to produce an ever wider range of outputs, and to ensure those outputs are consistent and mutually related to the greatest extent possible. Statistical integration is an approach for enhancing the information content of separate statistical collections conducted by an agency, and is necessary for consistency. It has two aspects‐conceptual and physical‐the former being a prerequisite for the latter. This paper focuses on methods for achieving statistical integration through better management of metadata. It draws on experiences at the Australian Bureau of Statistics in the development and use of a central repository (the “Information Warehouse”) to manage data and metadata. It also makes reference to comparable initiatives at other national statistical agencies.The main conclusions are as follows. First, a prototyping approach is required in developing new functionality to support statistical integration as it is not clear in advance what tools are needed. Second, metadata from separate collections cannot easily be rationalised until they have been loaded to a central repository and are visible alongside one another so their inconsistencies are evident. Third, to be effective, conceptual integration must be accompanied by physical integration. Fourth, there is great scope for partnerships and exchange of ideas between agencies. Finally, statistical integration must be built into the ongoing collection processes and viewed as a way of life.
Evolution of International Statistical Standards via Life Cycle of Products and Services
Authors: Boulanger Michèle , Johnson Mark , Perruchet Christophe , Thyregod Poul 
Published: May 2007

SummaryThis paper describes international statistical standards in the context of the product life cycle. To set the stage, the historical evolution of standardization is traced from the Xia Dynasty of China to the present. The transition from local standards geared for manufacturing to national and then international standards is highlighted with acceptance sampling standards. International statistical standards now cover a broad range of topics beyond acceptance sampling, so a scheme is needed to organize them into a coherent structure. The product Life cycle provides just such a framework. The product Life cycle (which is subsumed to include service, as well) is partitioned into four main “megaphases”, namely: conception, development, delivery and maturity and death. Each megaphase is linked to relevant statistical methods in general and statistical standards in particular. A gap analysis identifies potential future directions of statistical standards developments and the attendant role that statisticians can continue to play in this arena.
Semi‐ and Non‐parametric Bayesian Analysis of Duration Models with Dirichlet Priors: A Survey
Authors: Florens J.‐P. , Mouchart M. , Rolin J.‐M. 
Published: May 2007

SummaryThe object of this paper is to review the main results obtained in semi‐ and non‐parametric Bayesian analysis of duration models. Standard nonparametric Bayesian models for independent and identically distributed observations are reviewed in line with Ferguson's pioneering papers. Recent results on the characterization of Dirichlet processes and on nonparametric treatment of censoring and of heterogeneity in the context of mixtures of Dirichlet processes are also discussed. The final section considers a Bayesian semiparametric version of the proportional hazards model.
Measurement Biases in Consumer Price Indexes
Authors: White Alan G. 
Published: May 2007

SummaryThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the cost of purchasing a fixed basket of goods at a fixed sample of outlets over time, and can be thought of as a practical approximation to a “true” cost‐of‐living index, and a measure of general inflation for the economy. In more recent times, concerns over the possibility that the U.S. CPI overstates the rate of inflation have grown. Annual changes in the CPI are used to adjust social security benefits, and wage contracts are often indexed to CPI changes. To the extent that the CPI overstates the rate of inflation individuals are being compensated for changes in the cost‐of‐living that have not occurred–with enormous implications for government fiscal budgets. This paper presents an up‐to‐date survey of the principal sources of measurement error or bias in the CPI. A number of sources of bias are examined, including the commodity substitution bias, the outlet substitution bias, and the elementary index bias. Traditional bilateral index number theory assumes that the number of goods remains constant over the pricing period and furthermore, that the goods are of unchanging quality. Changes in either of these give rise to two further biases: the new goods bias and the quality bias.
De Vetula: a Medieval Manuscript Containing Probability Calculations
Authors: Bellhouse D.R. 
Published: May 2007

Summary De Vetula, a poem that contains probability calculations on the throw of three dice, was written in the mid‐thirteenth century. The poem was widely circulated, read and quoted. There is strong evidence that some of the medieval readers clearly understood how the probability calculations were obtained. Based on the discussion given here, it is put forward that an elementary probability calculus was established and known in Europe from about the year 1250. A translation of the relevant section of the poem is given.
Measurement and its Uses: Harmonization and Quality in Social Statistics
Authors: Desrosières Alain 
Published: May 2007

SummaryThe European construction has induced a strong demand of harmonization of statistics of the various countries. The latter can be focused on an harmonization of outputs, already practised for a long time by national accountants: the statistical variables are defined in common, then each country measures them according to its own means. On the other hand, the harmonization of inputs, more ambitious, seeks a standardization of all the construction process and data collection. This leads to distinguish clearly the two moments of use and of production of economic and social statistics. Now the same distinction is made in the debates over the notion of quality of statistics, which contrast the quality of the product with the one of the process. This quality cannot be judged independently from the expected uses of these statistics and of their form of social credibility. From this point of view, the various harmonization levels are compared with the various forms of connection and convertibility between the national currencies.