bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Mortality risks, sequential decisions on births, and population growth
Authors: O’Hara Donald J. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The population growth rates implied by parental attempts to be highly certain of having a surviving son for old-age support are investigated. At life expectancies of 40 to 65 years, family-planning “strategies” using contraception are found to imply markedly lower growth rates (1.01.5 percent vs. 2.5 percent) than are both commonly observed and also previously derived by Heer and Smith. In contrast to strategies relying only on sterilization, contraceptive spacing of births permits parents to buy time and information. In particular, they can postpone deciding whether to have another child until they see if their infant son will survive the earliest years of childhood. These results suggest that many less developed countries might achieve a substantial reduction in birth rates, provided that family-planning programs emphasized contraception as well as sterilization and effectively communicated the idea of spacing births. Factors bearing on the range of applicability of the old-age-security hypothesis, and any results and policies derived from it, are also briefly analyzed.
Population size, military power, and Antinatal policy
Authors: Hendershot Gerry E. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
A causal model. relating population size, economic development, military power and antinatal population policy is tested using data from 83 developing nations. The statistical findings are interpreted as supporting two hypotheses: (1) population size is a major determinant of military power; and (2) military power is a minor determinant of anti-natal population policy.
Construction of nuptiality tables for the single population in India: 1901–1931
Authors: Malaker C. R. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
In this paper abridged nuptiality tables for the single population of India have been constructed for the three consecutive decades 1901–1911, 1911–1921 and 1921–1931. No significant time trend has been observed in the nuptiality rates among the single population of India. The rates are initially small, but increase rapidly until they reach a maximum at ages 25–30 for bachelors and 15–20 for spinsters, following which they gradually decline. During 1901–1931, unlike Western countries, India had not experienced any revolution in marriage habits encompassing traditional child marriages. The distinctive marks of the Indian age patterns of marriage are higher age-specific marriage rates combined with lower ages at marriage and lower proportions of people who never marry with relative stability of marriage habits during the early part of the twentieth century.
The prediction of fertility among catholics: A longitudinal analysis
Authors: Wilson Franklin D. , Bumpass Larry 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
A longitudinal analysis of the reproductive behavior of a sample of Catholics who were participants in the 1965 NFS and reinterviewed in 1969 is reported in this paper. Fertility over the period studied varied systematically with the additional number of children intended in 1965. In addition, this study has documented a predictive role for method of contraception and the experience of premarital pregnancy. Women using less effective methods and those premaritally pregnant had higher fertility over the interval net of controls for other variables in the analysis, including life-cycle stage and 1965 intentions. Surprisingly, the planning status of the last pregnancy before 1965 was not found to have any independent association with subsequent fertility.
Desired family size in Thailand: Are the responses meaningful?
Authors: Knodel John , Prachuabmoh Visid 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Data for both rural and urban women in Thailand indicate that the large majority of respondents are able to provide numerical responses to questions on desired family size. Although there is evidence that some women tend to rationalize the number of children they have when stating the number they would want if they were recently married, the vast majority of respondents prefer a number which is different from the number of living children they had at the time of the interview. Women who had already reached or exceeded their desired number were almost universal in stating they wanted no additional children, whereas only a minority of women who had yet to reach their desired family size said they wanted no more children. Finally, the proportion of women who practiced family planning is substantially greater among women who had already achieved or exceeded their desired family size than among women who had fewer than their desired number. The results thus suggest that, in Thailand at least, responses to family size preferences need to be interpreted with caution but nevertheless can be of use to the population analyst.
Development, inequality, health care, and mortality at the older ages: a cross-national analysis
Authors: Weatherby Norman L. , Nam Charles B. , Isaac Larry W. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
We examine mortality at ages 50 and above in female populations of 38 countries and control for variation in quality of the mortality data. We find that economic development, economic distributional inequality, and basic primary health care have independent cross-national effects on cause of death structures and that these effects are not uniform across the age intervals of interest. As improvements occur in level of living and heath care, age-specific death rates decline except at the oldest ages, at which point they may increase. Our results are interpreted in terms of their relevance for mortality research, theory, and policy.
Social and economic change, intergenerational relationships, and family formation in Taiwan
Authors: Thornton Arland , Chang Ming-Cheng , Sun Te-Hsiung 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper examines the influence of social change and economic growth on intergenerational relationships and the formation of families in Taiwan. Using data from two island-wide surveys in 1973 and 1980, the analysis shows that, as expected, social change has been accompanied by rapid changes in family structure and relationships, including the spread of schooling, the employment of young people outside the family, increasing separation of the residences of parents and children before and after marriage, growing independence of young people, and increases in premarital sex and pregnancies. The position of a family in the social structure also influences the way young people interact with their parents and form their own families: women with educated fathers have more nonfamilial experiences than others, and farm origins tend to exert a traditional influence on the life course. Finally, experiences early in the life course have important ramifications for later behavior and transitions.
Job characteristics of spouses and their work shifts
Authors: Presser Harriet B. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This study builds on an earlier finding from the May 1980 Current Population Survey that one-third of full-time dual-earner couples with children in the United States include at least one spouse who works other than a regular day shift. Using the same data source, the relevance of husbands’ and wives’ job characteristics (occupation and industry) on their shift work status are considered, and the nature of the association between husbands’ and wives’ work shifts is explored. Four alternative models are initially posed and tested with log-linear analysis; these models vary in the extent to which a spouse’s shift work status is contingent upon the job characteristics of a husband or wife. None of these models fit the data. A modification of the simplest of the four models (using forward selection) is the best fitting model. It is not symmetrical: the wife’s shift is contingent upon both her occupation and industry and that of her husband, but the husband’s shift is contingent only upon his occupation and industry. There is a relationship between husband’s and wife’s shift, the direction of which depends upon the occupations of both spouses. This study demonstrates the importance of taking a “couple” perspective on shift work among married persons, and the need for models that include interaction effects.
New midyear age-sex-color-specific estimates of the U.S. population for the 1940s and 1950s: including a revision of coverage estimates for the 1940 and 1950 censuses
Authors: Land Kenneth C. , Hough George C. , McMillan Marilyn M. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper describes new midyear (July 1) estimates of the “true” population of the United States by age, sex, and color (white, nonwhite) for the 1940s and 1950s. It also presents the corresponding implied coverage estimates for the 1940 and 1950 censuses. The new population estimates are calculated by combining the most recent figures on the 1960 population with estimates of the demographic components of change for the 1950s and 1940s in an iterative reverse cohort-component projection algorithm. Among the principal findings of the new estimates are: (a) existing midyear estimates of the “true” population in the 1950s are 450,000 to 500,000 too high; (b) existing age-specific estimates for the 1950s tend to underestimate the population at the older ages (55 years and over) and overestimate the population in the young and middle adult years (15 to 54 years); (c) estimates of the “true” population in the 1940s were too low except for nonwhites at ages 65 and over; (d) existing estimates of percentage net undercount and underenumeration for the 1950 and 1940 censuses tend to be too high, substantially so for nonwhites in the 1940 Census; and (e) nonwhites were more completely enumerated in 1940 than in 1950. Thus, in addition to being methodologically and temporally consistent with post-1960 estimates, the new population estimates described here imply some substantial revisions in demographic, social, and economic statistics for the two decades prior to 1960.
Calculation of life tables from survey data: A technical note
Authors: Goldman Noreen , Pebley Anne R. , Lord Graham 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Life table calculations from survey data are frequently based on events for which exact dates are not available. When these dates are coded in monthly form (e.g., century months), estimates should take into account the fact that the first duration interval—the interval which captures events occurring in the first month of exposure—is half the length of all remaining intervals. Although failure to do so has a trivial effect on many demographic calculations, estimates which are based on events which occur with high frequency in the first few months of exposure can be substantially biased. Estimates offecundability for four countries in the World Fertility Survey are used to illustrate this bias.
The place of odds ratios in the study of place, race and differential occupational opportunities
Authors: Semyonov Moshe , Hoyt Danny R. , Scott Richard Ira 
Published: March 2007

Summary
During the last few decades the study of racial differences in occupational and economic attainment has progressed rapidly, both in terms of theory and research. The ecological study of the racial and ethnic organization of local labor markets has not. The use of odds ratios and occupation-specific categories may provide a fruitful avenue for future research in the study of inequality across space and time.
Residential preferences, community satisfaction, and the intention to move
Authors: Heaton Tim , Fredrickson Carl , Fuguitt Glenn V. , Zuiches James J. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper explores the role of size of place residential preference in the evolution of the intention to move out of the present community using data from the March 1974 NORC Amalgam Survey. People who prefer to live in a community having different size or location characteristics than their present residence are five times more likely to intend to move than those who have attained their preferred type of residence. Within these two groups, however, the particular configuration of current and preferred residence has no significant effect on the likelihood of intending to move. This finding justifies the creation of a simple dichotomous variable, preference status, contrasting these two groups. Community satisfaction and preference status are highly interrelated and each has an independent effect on intentions to move. Moreover, the effect of preference status on mobility intentions is somewhat larger than that for community satisfaction, indicating that residential preference plays a significant role in the decision-making process regarding migration.
Trends in Total and Marital Fertility for Black Americans, 1886–1899
Authors: Tolnay Stewart E. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Total fertility rates and age-specific marital fertility rates are estimated for the urban and rural black populations during the last fourteen years of the nineteenth century. The data source is a 1-in-750 sample of households from the 1900 .census manuscripts. The results show sharp differences in the levels of urban and rural reproduction, as well as differences in the timing of the well-known black fertility transition. Calculation of Coale-Trussell m-values suggests that, up to 1899, rural blacks were essentially a “natural fertility” population while urban residents apparently had a history of family limitation. These findings support the inference that at least some segments of the black population were practicing birth control before the turn of the twentieth century.
Female Employment and Fertility in Peninsular Malaysia: The Maternal Role Incompatibility Hypothesis Reconsidered
Authors: Mason Karen Oppenheim , Palan V. T. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Multivariate analysis of the 1974 Malaysian Fertility and Family Survey tests the hypothesis that an inverse relationship between women’s work and fertility occurs only when there are serious conflicts between working and caring for children. The results are only partly consistent with the hypothesis and suggest that normative conflicts between working and mothering affect the employment-fertility relationship in Malaysia more than spacio-temporal conflicts do. The lack of consistent evidence for the hypothesis, as well as some conceptual problems, lead us to propose an alternative framework for understanding variation in the employment-fertility relationship, both in Malaysia and elsewhere. This framework incorporates ideas from the role incompatibility hypothesis but views the employment-fertility relationship as dependent not just on role conflicts but more generally on the structure of the household’s socioeconomic opportunities.
CBR Versus TFR in Cross-National Fertility Research
Authors: Entwisle Barbara 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper addresses the question of whether the crude birth rate (CBR) can be used as a proxy for more refined fertility measures in cross-national models of fertility determinants. It responds to a recent claim that the CBR represents an inappropriate fertility measure for these purposes. In the analysis, several strategies are used to assess the degree to which results based on the CBR are sensitive to lack of adjustment for age structure. The paper concludes that using the CBR as a proxy has minor and unimportant effects upon conclusions regarding fertility determinants.
Comparative Estimates of Teenage Illegitimacy in the United States, 1940–44 to 1970–74
Authors: O’Connell Martin 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Incompleteness in the reporting of illegitimate births in the U.S. vital registration system due to the consistent nonparticipation of a number of large States has left data published by the National Center for Health Statistics open to considerable criticism. Utilizing retrospective marriage and fertility data from the June 1978 Current Population Survey, a national probability sample of 54,000 interviewed households, a time series on teenage illegitimacy for first births is constructed that permits an evaluation of similar Vital Statistics data on teenage illegitimacy since the 1940s. Although there are some indications of a slight underreporting of white illegitimate first births by Vital Statistics during the 1940s and early 1950s, the overall comparison produces a general consensus between the two data sources on the incidence of illegitimacy among both white and nonwhite teenagers for the period 1940–44 to 1970–74.
The Index of Overall Headship: A Simple Measure of Household Complexity Standardized for Age and Sex
Authors: Burch Thomas K. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper develops and tests an age-sex standardized measure of household complexity, defined broadly as the tendency of adults (other than spouses) to head their own households or to share households. The aim is a measure of household complexity which can be computed with a minimum of demographic data, namely, data on number of households and on the population by age and sex. The procedure is similar to that of Coale for fertility measurement (Coale, 1969); it is a form of indirect standardization in which the actual number of households is related to the number that would exist if maximum age-sex-specific household headship rates were to apply. Various forms of this indirectly standardized measure show a correlation of better than 0.9 with directly standardized measures for a sample of 33 nations for which requisite data are available. The new measure promises to extend considerably the geographical and temporal range of comparable empirical measures of household complexity.
Foreign-Born Emigration from the United States: 1960 To 1970
Authors: Warren Robert , Peck Jennifer Marks 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper presents estimates of emigration of foreign-born persons by age and sex for 1960 to 1970, based on 1960 and 1970 census counts of the foreign-born population, adjusted life table survival rates, and annual statistics on alien immigration published by the Immigration and Naturalization Service. The effects of nativity bias are discussed. It is estimated that approximately 1,140,000 foreign-born persons emigrated between 1960 and 1970, of which 663,000, or 58 percent, were women and 477,000 were men. Almost one-quarter of the foreign-born emigrants were women 25–44 years of age in 1970. About 175,000 foreign-born persons 65 years and over in 1970 emigrated during the decade. The most significant finding, that more than one million foreign-born persons left the United States between 1960 and 1970, has important implications for U.S. immigration policy and for net immigration data used to estimate the population of the United States.
The Sisters’ Riddle and the Importance of Variance when Guessing Demographic Rates from Kin Counts
Authors: Wachter Kenneth W. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Goldman (1978) has proposed a formula derived from stable population theory for estimating growth rates from certain counts of younger and older sisters in a population. Computer microsimulation outputs show extraordinarily large statistical errors for estimation when stable population assumptions are modified to allow for random variability such as would be encountered with field work on small populations. A derivation of Goldman’s formula on more interpretable lines than that in Goldman (1978) identifies a source of variance special to this particular formula so that the large statistical errors for this example need not count in general against the feasibility of estimating demographic rates from counts of kin.
Estimating the emigration rates of legal immigrants using administrative and survey data: The 1971 cohort of immigrants to the United States
Authors: Jasso Guillermina , Rosenzweig Mark R. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Based on administrative and survey data as well as data-based assumptions about the bounds on alien address reporting, this study provides estimates of the lower and upper bounds for the cumulative net emigration rates, by country and area of origin, of the FY1971 cohort of legal immigrants to the United States as of January 1979. The merged data indicate that the cumulative net emigration rate for the entire cohort could have been as high as 50 percent. Canadian emigration was probably between 51 and 55 percent. Emigration rates for legal immigrants from Central America, the Caribbean (excluding Cuba), and South America were at least as high as 50 percent, and could have been as high as 70 percent. Emigration rates for Koreans and Chinese could not have exceeded 22 percent over the same period.
Modelling the evolution of heterogeneity in residential mobility
Authors: Davies R. B. , Crouchley R. , Pickles A. R. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Migration probabilities are known to vary over the population (heterogeneity) and over time (nonstationarity). It is shown that if the heterogeneity is represented by an SB mixing distribution and the nonstationarity by a set of arbitrary logistic scaling functions, then not only may all sources of heterogeneity, including tastes, be modelled, but heterogeneity at different points in time may be readily compared. The model is calibrated using data previously published by Clark et al. (1977, 1979) for a sample of 1,176 older renters and is found to fit well. The-changing heterogeneity over the ten-year period of observation is represented graphically.
A specification of marital fertility by parents’ age, age atmarriage and marital duration
Authors: Mineau Geraldine P. , Trussell James 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The positive association between wife’s age at marriage and fertility experienced at the older reproductive ages, cited in recent natural fertility literature, is explored using Mormon birth cohorts from 1840 to 1879. When this relationship is specified by husband’s age at marriage and marriage duration, the results indicate that older-aged husbands depress marital fertility only at higher marriage durations. The general decomposition of age-specific fertility utilizing both mother’s and father’s age is also considered. The results show that mother’s aging is the most important factor, while father’s aging has a moderately negative effect under a natural fertility regime.
The effect of piped water on early childhood mortality in Urban Brazil, 1970 to 1976
Authors: Merrick Thomas W. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The effects of access to piped water on the trends in child mortality and on differentials by income class are analyzed using data on surviving children and other variables in samples of urban mothers aged 20–29 in 1970 and 1976. Path analytic regression techniques are used to test a recursive model linking the supply and demand for piped water to selected household and community level variables, and to examine their joint effect on child mortality. The model’s estimated parameters for 1970 and 1976 are used to analyze changes in mortality between the two dates. Increased maternal education accounts for a larger share of the mortality decline than any other single factor. Increased access to piped water also contributes to mortality decline, and such access helps to reduce the mortality differential between lower and higher income and education classes.
The increasing proportion of men with low earnings in the United States
Authors: Dooley Martin , Gottschalk Peter 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Data from the 1967 through 1978 Current Population Surveys of the U.S. Bureau of the Census are used to analyze the proportion of men with annual and weekly earnings below a fixed low earnings threshold. Logit analysis is used to assess the impact of the level of education, experience, cyclical conditions, and cohort size on the proportion of low earners within education-experience categories. Particular interest is paid to the influence of the labor market entry of the baby boom. The evidence indicates that, after controlling for the independent variables, the proportion of adult males with low annual and weekly earnings has been growing substantially except among the most highly educated.