bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
AN EVALUATION OF FORECAST ERROR IN MASTER PRODUCTION SCHEDULING FOR MATERIAL REQUIREMENTS PLANNING SYSTEMS.
Authors: Lee T. S. , Adam Everett E. , Ebert Ronald J. 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTTypical forecast‐error measures such as mean squared error, mean absolute deviation and bias generally are accepted indicators of forecasting performance. However, the eventual cost impact of forecast errors on system performance and the degree to which cost consequences are explained by typical error measures have not been studied thoroughly. The present paper demonstrates that these typical error measures often are not good predictors of cost consequences in material requirements planning (MRP) settings. MRP systems rely directly on the master production schedule (MPS) to specify gross requirements. These MRP environments receive forecast errors indirectly when the errors create inaccuracies in the MPS.Our study results suggest that within MRP environments the predictive capabilities of forecast‐error measures are contingent on the lot‐sizing rule and the product components structure When forecast errors and MRP system costs are coanalyzed, bias emerges as having reasonable predictive ability. In further investigations of bias, loss functions are evaluated to explain the MRP cost consequences of forecast errors. Estimating the loss functions of forecast errors through regression analysis demonstrates the superiority of loss functions as measures over typical forecast error measures in the MPS.
TWO DESIGN PRINCIPLES FOR KNOWLEDGE‐BASED SYSTEMS*
Authors: Ow Peng Si , Smith Stephen F. 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTThis paper discusses two principles that have become increasingly important in the design of knowledge‐based systems: domain‐specific knowledge used to support opportunistic reasoning and hierarchical organization structure used to control and coordinate problem‐solving activity. We propose a design framework that embodies these two principles and describe how this framework has been used to develop a knowledge‐based job‐shop scheduling system. This system, called OPIS 0, has undergone limited testing in an experimental environment modeled after an actual job shop. Its performance has been very good compared to ISIS and to the more traditional approach of constructing a schedule by dispatching jobs using the COVERT priority rule. The resulting design also shows potential for use in a decision support role.
MEASURING MASTER PRODUCTION SCHEDULE STABILITY UNDER ROLLING PLANNING HORIZONS
Authors: Sridharan Sri V. , Berry William L. , Udayabhanu V. 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTMaintaining a stable master production schedule (MPS) is difficult for many firms, especially when material requirements planning is used to manage production operations. This paper is concerned with the problem of measuring MPS stability, and the impact on stability of three important decision variables in managing the MPS within a rolling‐horizon framework in a make‐to‐stock environment: the method used to freeze the MPS, the proportion of the MPS frozen, and the length of the planning horizon for the MPS. Simulation experiments conducted to determine the impact of these decision variables, as well as other important product demand and cost characteristics, on MPS stability are reported. The results indicate MPS stability can be influenced by managerial action directed toward management of the MPS as well as changes in important product cost and requirements characteristics.
AN EVALUATION OF ORDER RELEASE MECHANISMS IN A JOB‐SHOP ENVIRONMENT
Authors: Ragatz Gary L. , Mabert Vincent A. 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTControlling the flow of material on the shop floor involves releasing and dispatching jobs to meet customer due‐date requirements while attempting to keep operating costs low. This report presents an evaluation of five releasing mechanisms and four dispatching rules under various levels of aggregate due‐date tightness, shop cost structure, and machine utilization using simulation. The performance criteria of total shop cost, jobs on shop floor, deviation from due dates, and job queue time are collected to demonstrate the interactive nature of releasing and dispatching on shop performance.
“A JOINT ECONOMIC‐LOT‐SIZE MODEL FOR PURCHASER AND VENDOR”: A COMMENT*
Authors: Goyal S. K. 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTBanerjee [1] developed a joint economic‐lot‐size model for the case where a vendor produces to order for a purchaser on a lot‐for‐lot basis under deterministic conditions. The assumption of lot‐for‐lot bases is restrictive in nature. In this note, a more general joint economic‐lot‐size model is suggested and it is shown to provide a lower or equal joint total relevant cost as compared to the model of Banerjee.
The Minimum‐Covering/Shortest‐Path Problem*
Authors: Current John , ReVelle Charles , Cohon Jared 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTDue to the inherent multiobjective nature of many network design and routing problems, there has been a tremendous increase in multiobjective network modeling in recent years. In this article we introduce one such model, the minimum‐covering/shortest‐path (MinCSP) problem, and formulate several variations of the problem. The MinCSP problem is a two‐objective path problem: minimization of the total population negatively impacted by the path and minimization of the total path length. A population is considered to be negatively impacted by the path if the path comes within some predetermined distance of the population. Consequently, the MinCSP problem extends the concept of coverage from facility location modeling to network design. Additionally, several existing solution methods for the problem are briefly discussed and potential applications presented.
Location of Inventories in an MRP Environment
Authors: McClelland Marilyn K. , Wagner Harvey M. 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTPrevious research on MRP systems has rarely considered at what level in a modular sub‐assembly product structure to hold inventories. Based on a simulation study of an MRP environment, we show that the correct decision concerning where to hold inventory depends on the variance in end‐item demand, the amount of inventory investment, and concomitantly, the desired level of customer service. In particular, for small investment in inventories and moderate end‐item demand variance, it is equally effective to hold inventories at the subassembly level or the end‐item level. But when end‐item demand variance is high, subassembly level inventories are better. As inventory investment grows, however, it is best to use a diversified approach of holding both subassembly and end‐item inventories, irrespective of end‐item demand variance. The robustness of these conclusions is validated by simulating a hypothetical firm that also uses safety time to hedge against uncertainties.
Determining Optimal Selling Price and Lot Size When the Supplier Offers All‐Unit Quantity Discounts*
Authors: Abad Prakash L. 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTThis paper is concerned with finding the optimal price and lot size for a retailer purchasing a product for which the supplier offers all‐unit quantity discounts. Demand for the product is assumed to be a decreasing function of price, and a procedure is developed for finding the optimal price and lot size for a class of demand functions. The procedure then is applied to two common demand functions: (1) the constant price‐elasticity function, and (2) the linear demand function.
A Sequential Selection Problem*
Authors: Kwan Clarence C.Y. , Yuan Yufei 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTIn this study we formulate a sequential selection problem. In a setting where a choice sequence among candidates is established for filling a job position, the analysis explicitly takes into account the benefits from the hiring, the risk of rejection of the job offer, and the costs due to delays in filling the position. The proposed solution, which is both intuitive and simple, is able to capture analytically the decision process. We also illustrate the versatility of the analysis by considering several other relevant sequential selection settings.
Composite Forecasting with Dirichlet Priors*
Authors: Bessler David A. , Chamberlain Peter J. 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTIn this paper, composite forecasting is considered from a Bayesian perspective. A forecast user combines two or more forecasts of an operationally relevant random variable. We consider the case where outperformance is modeled as a realization from a multinomial process. The user has prior beliefs about the probability that a particular method outperforms all others, information which is summarized by the Dirichlet distribution. An empirical example with hog prices in the United States illustrates the method.
An Experimental Evaluation of Articulation of Preferences in Multiple Criterion Decision‐Making (MCDM) Methods
Authors: Narasimhan Ram , Vickery Shawnee K. 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTThis paper describes the results of a study done to determine how well multiple criterion decision‐making methods perform in helping a decision maker arrive at a preferred solution to a multicriterion problem with conflicting objectives. The study used a factorial experiment and doctoral students as subjects. Two competing methods for solving multicriterion problems were compared along with the influence of problem complexity. The methods differed in the way preferences were articulated by decision makers. The results showed that there was no difference between the methods for several performance measures, disaffirming some prior expectations. From an actual use point of view, the study suggests that methodological improvements to existing techniques must be matched by efforts to improve information presentation and interpretation to facilitate preference judgments.
Supplier/Customer Inventory Relationships Under Just In Time
Authors: Chapman Stephen N. , Carter Phillip L. 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTWhile a fairly large body of literature dealing with just‐in‐time (JIT) manufacturing exists, most of it is descriptive. JIT research consists primarily of case studies, surveys, a few analytic models (primarily dealing with Kanban), and some simulations. This research builds on the existing literature to develop and test an exploratory model of JIT purchasing with an empirical field study of an actual JIT implementation. While the results basically follow hypotheses developed from the literature, some anomalies were found. The research provides both a methodology for further JIT study and an indication of the possible relative importance of JIT purchasing characteristics as they exist in a North American installation. Especially insightful is the fact that the relative importance changes depending on whether customer inventory or supplier inventory is used as the dependent variable. With customer inventory, the variables measuring delivered lot size, the size of release changes, and supplier manufacturing lead time were significant. With supplier inventory, only supplier manufacturing lot size was significant.
Optimal and Heuristic Models for Lot Splitting in a Flow Shop
Authors: Kropp Dean H. , Smunt Timothy L. 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTThis paper investigates optimal lot‐splitting policies in a multiprocess flow shop environment with the objective of minimizing either mean flow time or makespan. Using a quadratic programming approach to the mean flow time problem, we determine the optimal way of splitting a job into smaller sublots under various setup times to run time ratios, number of machines in the flow shop, and number of allowed sublots. Our results come from a deterministic flow shop environment, but also provide insights into the repetitive lots scheme using equal lot splits for job shop scheduling in a stochastic environment. We indicate those conditions in which managers should implement the repetitive lots scheme and where other lot‐splitting schemes should work better.
Cash Flow Modelling and Forecasting in Capital Budgeting Under Uncertainty*
Authors: Giaccotto Carmelo 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTThe subject of this paper is modelling and forecasting of cash flows generated by a capital investment. The paper proposes the application of autoregressive, moving average, and mixed autoregressive moving‐average processes to capital budgeting. In addition, models for deterministic, stochastic and seasonal trends are considered. For each class of cash flows, analytical expressions are developed for the mean and variance of a project's net present value (NPV). Also considered are several equilibrium pricing models. For two of them, the forecasting methodology developed here is integrated into the pricing equation. Although the overall emphasis of the paper is on modelling and forecasting of cash flows, the implications for NPV pricing and risk analysis are also investigated. Several examples are used to illustrate the impact of particular cash flow models on the price and risk of a project.
Correction Constants for Present Values of Sub‐Annual Cash Flows*
Authors: McMath H. Kent 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTWhen future cash flows are expected to occur at sub‐annual intervals, it is widely recognized that present value estimates are biased by the common assumption that each year's flows occur at year‐end. Although a “brute force” remedy for the end‐of‐year (EOY) bias is well known, the method does not appear to be generally used for financial decisions. The author suggests the possible reasons for continued tolerance of EOY bias are that the present method for eliminating the bias is too cumbersome or that the amount of bias is thought to be negligible. The paper also (a) examines the current remedy, indicating several features that hamper its use, (b) presents a correction constant approach that simplifies calculation of unbiased present values for streams of sub‐annual cash flows, (c) derives expressions for correction constants under two alternative assumptions about sub‐annual discounting, and (d) demonstrates use of the constants and the possible decision‐relevance of EOY bias by a simple capital budgeting example.
A Note on Consistency in Utility Assessment*
Authors: Hughes Warren R. 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTA methodology for determining a von Neumann‐Morgenstern utility function is outlined based on the axioms crucial to such a function. Reconciliation of inconsistent judgments is facilitated using the theory of reciprocal matrices. Numerical measures of the collective divergence of a set of judgments from perfect consistency or coherency are provided.
Forecasting Seasonal Time Series of Corporate Earnings: A Note*
Authors: Jarrett Jeffrey 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTThe purpose of this paper is to compare the accuracy of various models for forecasting time series of corporate earnings. Previous research indicated that user‐identified time series (ARIMA) models were less useful for forecasting corporate earnings than prespecified models of the Watts‐Griffin and Brown‐Rozeff type. In this study, these research results are disputed. Specifically, prespecified models did not produce models having smaller forecast errors in the statistical sense than did user‐identified models for the same time series data for the same time period. The user‐identified models are those selected by the prescriptive methods of Box‐Jenkins identification, estimation, and diagnostic testing. Furthermore, the magnitude of the forecasting error may be understated for the prespecified models indicating that Box‐Jenkins models may even be more useful than indicated by measures of forecast error.
Discretionary Use of Computers: An Empirically Derived Explanatory Model*
Authors: Howard Geoffry S. , Mendelow Aubrey L. 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTThis study identifies variables that explain variations in computer use. Factor analysis of data gathered from 422 business administration faculty reveal eight themes among the independent variables. Seven of these factors significantly discriminate among non, minimal, and high users. These results suggest an empirical model for future studies and provide policy insights for decision makers seeking to stimulate computer usage. Additionally, the study shows that there is much commonality between the previously separate organizational innovation and information systems implementation streams. It also demonstrates that motivation theory may be a valid framework within which to study computer use.
Graphical Presentations of Data Envelopment Analyses: Management Implications from Parallel Axes Representations*
Authors: Desai Anand , Walters Lawrence C. 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTThe conversion of multivariate data analysis into information that managers can readily use in their decision making has always been a challenging task. In this paper we provide a parallel axis representation of multivariate data and demonstrate how this representation may be used as a tool for implementing the results of data envelopment analysis. We use an analysis of the efficiency of electricity generating plants to illustrate the technique.
An Optimization Approach for Scheduling Internal Audits of Divisions
Authors: Knechel W. Robert , Benson Harold P. 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTIn this paper, we develop an optimization model for efficiently scheduling internal audits of multiple units within a business enterprise. The model determines an optimal mix of audit frequencies for the audit units given the risks and costs involved in the audit process. We also show one method for estimating the audit cost and loss functions needed as input to the model and demonstrate how to obtain a solution for the model. To illustrate the model's use, we solve a sample problem with eight audit units and examine the sensitivity of the solution to misestimation of the risk parameters. Our results indicate that the model is readily solvable on a personal computer, useful for choosing an efficient mix of audit frequencies and an overall audit budget, and relatively insensitive to misestimation of the risk parameters.
Dogmatism and Systems Development Personnel Performance
Authors: Swanson N. E. , Cornette W. R. , Keith N. K. 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTThis research explores the relationship between the personal variable, dogmatism, and the performance evaluations of systems analysts within a Fortune 500 company. The Rokeach Dogmatism Scale was used to measure the analysts’ level of dogmatism. The analysts’ performance measurement was the product of the company's annual evaluation process. The results of the research indicate that personnel with the highest dogmatism scores generally receive the extreme performance ratings. The results of this study provide further support to consider dogmatism as an important personal variable influencing systems analyst job performance.
On the Measurement of Perceived Consumer Risk
Authors: Havlena William J. , DeSarbo Wayne S. 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTThe role of perceived risk in consumer behavior has been studied extensively by academic researchers. This paper introduces a methodology for the measurement of the effects of product features, marketing mix components, and individual differences on perceived consumer risk based on theoretical foundations in the literature. A conjoint‐type model based on paired comparison judgments is estimated to provide attribute weights. A modification of a stochastic multidimensional scaling‐based vector model is then used to measure and summarize individual consumer differences with respect to the impact of brand attributes and marketing mix components on latent levels of perceived consumer risk. An illustration is provided using students’ risk perceptions of sports cars.
Tax Professionals Belief Revision: The Effects of Information Presentation Sequence, Client Preference, and Domain Experience
Authors: Pei Buck K.W. , Reckers Philip M.J. , Wyndelts Robert W. 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTBased on a belief revision model recently proposed by Hogarth and Einhorn [35], the present research investigates the effects of information presentation orders on tax professionals’ belief revisions about ambiguous tax treatments. Also examined in the study are the impacts of the tax professionals’ experience and the client's tax preference on the belief revision. The results show that the experienced tax professionals’ belief revisions are affected by the presentation order manipulations, but unaffected by the client preference manipulations. In contrast, the inexperienced tax professionals’ belief revisions display a reverse pattern.
A Credit Limit Decision Model for Inventory Floor Planning and Other Extended Trade Credit Arrangements*
Authors: Fewings David R. 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTThis paper analyzes the dealership credit limit problem in terms of the valuation of a Markov process of cash flows with sequential credit decisions over an infinite planning horizon. The formulation distinguishes between the upper bound on credit applicable at the account formation stage and the upper bound applicable to periodic reorders. The result is a closed form solution to the problem which serves as a criterion function for approving or denying credit on a customer‐by‐customer basis.Data for a sample of manufacturing firms are employed to estimate typical ranges for criterion function parameters. Upper bounds on credit limits are then calculated and graphically presented for median parameter values as well as for values at the 5th and 95th percentiles for the sample data. Finally, an empirical study is conducted of actual trade credit extended by firms. The results support the hypothesis that the variables in the decision model are important determinants of the amount of trade credit outstanding.
Locating Emergency Warning Sirens
Authors: Current John , O'Kelly Morton 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTIn this paper, we report on the application of set covering and maximal covering location models to the problem of locating emergency warning sirens in a midwestern city. Two siren types are available, each having different costs and covering radii. Using a modified version of the set covering location model, we analyze the cost implications of several policy options being considered by the city's planners. Results of the study indicate that location covering models can be powerful and efficient tools in the design of such systems, and their use can lead to significant cost savings. In addition, such models provide decision makers the flexibility to examine the inherent costs associated with various policy options.
Evaluating USAF Vehicle Maintenance Productivity Over Time: An Application of Data Envelopment Analysis
Authors: Clarke Richard L. 
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACTIn response to increasing costs and reductions in manpower, the Tactical Air Command (TAC) of the USAF experimented with a specialized productivity measurement model known as data envelopment analysis (DEA). A medium‐sized application of DEA was employed by TAC to evaluate the productivity of its seventeen subordinate vehicle maintenance sections over a four‐year period. The application reports gains in productivity and the reactions of the field managers to the use of DEA.