bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
False Alarms and Close Calls: A Conceptual Model of Warning Accuracy
Authors: Barnes Lindsey R. , Gruntfest Eve C. , Hayden Mary H. , Schultz David M. , Benight Charles 
Published: October 2007

AbstractThe false alarm rate (FAR) measures the fraction of forecasted events that did not occur, and it remains one of the key metrics for verifying National Weather Service (NWS) weather warnings. The national FAR for tornado warnings in 2003 was 0.76, indicating that only one in four tornado warnings was verified. The NWS’s goal for 2010 is to reduce this value to 0.70. Conventional wisdom is that false alarms reduce the public’s willingness to respond to future events. This paper questions this conventional wisdom. In addition, this paper argues that the metrics used to evaluate false alarms do not accurately represent the numbers of actual false alarms or the forecasters’ abilities because current metrics categorize events as either a hit or a miss and do not give forecasters credit for close calls. Aspects discussed in this paper include how the NWS FAR is measured, how humans respond to warnings, and what are alternative approaches to measure FAR. A conceptual model is presented as a framework for a new perspective on false alarms that includes close calls, providing a more balanced view of forecast verification.
Comparing Probabilistic Forecasting Systems with the Brier Score
Authors: Ferro Christopher A. T. 
Published: October 2007

AbstractThis article considers the Brier score for verifying ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts of binary events. New estimators for the effect of ensemble size on the expected Brier score, and associated confidence intervals, are proposed. An example with precipitation forecasts illustrates how these estimates support comparisons of the performances of competing forecasting systems with possibly different ensemble sizes.
Data Mining Numerical Model Output for Single-Station Cloud-Ceiling Forecast Algorithms
Authors: Bankert Richard L. , Hadjimichael Michael 
Published: October 2007

Abstract
Accurate cloud-ceiling-height forecasts derived from numerical weather prediction (NWP) model data are useful for aviation and other interests where low cloud ceilings have an impact on operations. A demonstration of the usefulness of data-mining methods in developing cloud-ceiling forecast algorithms from NWP model output is provided here. Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) 1-h forecast data were made available for nearly every hour in 2004. Various model variables were extracted from these data and stored in a database of hourly records for routine aviation weather report (METAR) station KJFK at John F. Kennedy International Airport along with other single-station locations. Using KJFK cloud-ceiling observations as ground truth, algorithms were derived for 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-h forecasts through a data-mining process. Performance of these cloud-ceiling forecast algorithms, as evaluated through cross-validation testing, is compared with persistence and Global Forecast System (GFS) model output statistics (MOS) performance (6 and 12 h only) over the entire year. The 1-h algorithms were also compared with the RUC model cloud-ceiling (or cloud base) height translation algorithms. The cloud-ceiling algorithms developed through data mining outperformed these RUC model translation algorithms, showed slightly better skill and accuracy than persistence at 3 h, and outperformed persistence at 6 and 12 h. Comparisons to GFS MOS (which uses observations in addition to model data for algorithm derivation) at 6 h demonstrated similar performance between the two methods with the cloud-ceiling algorithm derived through data mining demonstrating more skill at 12 h.
Long-Range Prediction of the Shipping Season in Hudson Bay: A Statistical Approach
Authors: Tivy Adrienne , Alt Bea , Howell Stephen , Wilson Katherine , Yackel John 
Published: October 2007

Abstract
Despite recent reductions in Arctic sea ice extent and the associated increase in both the recreational and commercial use of ice-infested waters, long-range prediction of operationally relevant sea ice parameters is an area of seasonal forecasting that has received little attention. Statistical methods that isolate and exploit empirical relationships between antecedent low-frequency climate variability and specific variables of interest are often used to solve seasonal forecasting problems. In this study, simple multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques are used to improve the skill of the seasonal (3-month lead) forecast of the breakup and clearing of sea ice along the shipping route through Hudson Bay that is issued each March by the Canadian Ice Service of Environment Canada. Using sea ice and climate data from 1972 to 2002, predictive MLR models are developed for the spring opening date of the shipping route and the latest expected opening date. A success rate of 77% over the 1972–2002 period for the opening date, from an MLR model that explains 76% of the variability in the original time series with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.38, is a marked improvement over the 48% success rate of the current analog methodology. The success rate of the model for the latest expected date is 87%; the modeled time series adequately represented interannual variability in the observed time series (r = 0.71) with a low MAE (MAE = 0.51). Results from a series of model diagnostics that include Monte Carlo simulations, cross validation, and analysis of residuals, suggest the final models are statistically valid and are not influenced by artificial skill. The main source of predictive skill in the model is winter low-frequency variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and 500-mb geopotential heights; physical processes that may explain this link are presented. It is concluded that simple multiple linear regression techniques can be applied to generate use-specific seasonal forecasts of sea ice conditions and that the empirical knowledge gained in the model development may help elucidate or identify physical processes in the climate system.
A Note On the Maximum Peirce Skill Score
Authors: Manzato Agostino 
Published: October 2007

Abstract
Binary classifiers are obtained from a continuous predictor using a threshold to dichotomize the predictor value into event occurrence and nonoccurrence classes. A contingency table is associated with each threshold, and from this table many statistical indices (like skill scores) can be computed. This work shows that the threshold that maximizes one of these indices [the Peirce skill score (PSS)] has some important properties. In particular, at that threshold the ratio of the two likelihood distributions is always 1 and the event posterior probability is equal to the event prior probability. These properties, together with the consideration that the maximum PSS is the point with the “most skill” on the relative operating characteristic curve and the point that maximizes the forecast value, suggest the use of the maximum PSS as a good scalar measure of the classifier skill. To show that this most skilled point is not always the best one for all the users, a simple economic cost model is presented.
Workers' Participation and Industrial Democracy-Variations on a Theme
Authors: Robbins John R. 
Published: October 2007

THE CONCEPT of worker participation in management is fraught with difficulties, semantic, political and technical. This paper is intended to clarify some of the varied approaches to the topic. The semantic problem is not merely that, for the vocabulary used may contain an indication of the intent of the author. There is a great deal of interchangeability between the terms worker participation and industrial democracy though I think that an important and fundamental distinction can be made between them, and many of the other terms can be subsumed under these headings.
The Quantitative Determination of Stiffness in Individual Yarns
Authors: Saxl Irving J. 
Published: October 2007

IN view of the importance of the exact knowledge of stiffness in individual yarns and yarn combinations, a method has been developed for measuring these characteristics quantitatively. It consists essentially in determining the force necessary to bend a piece of yarn, held at one end, through various angles. For convenience in the application of the force, the yarn is formed into a U-bend, the load being applied at the center of the U. The bending angle is variable by means of a turning device. The instrument is used in conjunction with am analytical balance. The method described lends itself to a great many different applications. Among others, the load-versus-deflection characteristics for various types of yarn have been determined. The influence of the number of filaments and proper sizing upon the stiffness is shown, as is the hysteresis effect. The method lends itself to the determination of the modulus of clasticity.
Tax, Incentives and Small Business Investment
Authors: Morgan Eleanor J. 
Published: October 2007

Eleanor Morgan is a lecturer in Industrial Economics in the School of Management at the University of Bath. During the 1970s, many industrial countries relied on increasingly generous tax allowances to encourage investment in the business sector. There is, however, little recent evidence about the effectiveness of such policies at the micro level, either on investment decisions by small businesses or more generally. This paper examines the impact of fiscal investment incentives in Britain in recent years and, in particular, the effect on investment decisions by small firms. The main findings are drawn from an in-depth analysis of sixty investments, one-quarter by small businesses. Against the background of debate in many countries about the future direction of their tax systems, the British experience provides a useful case study; Britain had more generous allowances on certain types of fixed investment than elsewhere and has recently radically altered the system of taxes and investment allowances. It is shown that small businesses are likely to be particularly sensitive to this change.
Programming CNC-Equipment—The Effects of Automation in Small Industrial Enterprises
Authors: Poutsma Erik , Zwaard Aad 
Published: October 2007

ERIK POUTSMA and Aad Zwaard are research associates at the Economic Research Institute for Small-and Medium-sized businesses in Zoetermeer, the Netherlands. This paper focusses on the effects of new technologies in small-and medium-sized industrial businesses. The study is based on a survey of 780 enterprises in different industries and three case studies in the metals industry. One of the crucial indicators to judge the changes in work organisation and job content is where and by whom computer numerically controlled (CNC) machines are programmed. In general it can be stated that the smaller the scale of the enterprise and size of batches, the greater the number of tasks and responsibilities on the part of the operator. Furthermore, in small firms with variable runs of production, the machine operators carry out programming functions as well as tasks of optimalisation, adjustment and quality control. The number of different tasks also depends on the level of education and skills of the operator, which is slightly higher in small firms. One of the main findings is that new technologies leave room for organisational choices concerning the quality of work. If small firms are to be able to compete in the future much depends on the way they make use of modern technologies. The first concern when automation is introduced is to keep the multi-skill and autonomous character of jobs intact.
Analysis of Rail Transfer for Solid Wastes in North Carolina, U.S.A
Authors: Peirce J.J. , Pierson B.A. 
Published: October 2007

Alternative rail haul transfer systems for solid waste management are discussed in terms of design and cost considerations and preliminary feasibility of such systems within a given region in North Carolina. The focus is the development of alternatives to expensive solid waste handling and disposal problems. Engineers are limited in the consideration of truly different solid waste management programmes. Truck transfer systems receive limited attention, but rail haul is not widely investigated. Rail systems that have existed have pulled themselves both up and down by their bootstraps in scant few communities in the world. Results of this study indicate design and cost considerations for rail systems. Rail transfer technologies are developed for four size facilities using freight trains, unit trains and high-rail vehicles. Loading and unloading options are detailed using flatbed, gondola and hopper rail cars. A case study points to the usefulness of the technologies but the current administrative requirements imposed by the rail companies makes rail haul non-competitive in this area.
Moisture Level and Movement Effects On Methane Production Rates in Landfill Samples
Authors: Hartz K.E. , Ham R.K. 
Published: October 2007

Samples of refuse were obtained from selected landfills for the purpose of observing the rates of methane production under controlled moisture conditions. Samples of solid waste were obtained following the procedures reported by Hartz & Ham (1982). The rates of methane production, for each sample, were observed under constant temperature conditions. The moisture levels for certain samples were then increased by adding water. The rates of methane production under the moisture modified conditions were then observed. When moisture levels were sufficient to produce leachate, the sample leachate was recirculated. A wide range of recirculation rates were examined. It was found that some methane production should occur with moisture levels as low as 10% (total weight basis). It was further found that incipient free moisture conditions (field capacity) occurred at approximately 40% moisture (total weight basis), and that when leachate recirculation was practised, methane generation rates were significantly higher when compared to quiescent conditions.
Food Waste From Hotels and Restaurants in the U.K.†
Authors: Youngs A.J. , Nobis G. , Town P. 
Published: October 2007

An investigation into food waste in the hotel sector of the catering industry was performed in two stages. In the first stage food waste was measured by a direct observation technique in four hotels, two units within a city centre restaurant complex and two units within the public restaurant of a catering college. Measurements continued for between 6 and 21 days. Edible and inedible waste ranged from 20 to 38% of the energy value of meals served in the hotels, 9% in the city centre restaurant complex and 42% in the college restaurant. In the second stage total food waste was measured in two hotels and in the same city centre restaurant complex by an indirect technique to avoid influencing working practices. Waste values represented 31 and 33% of food input on an energy basis in the hotels and 3% of food input on an energy basis in the restaurant complex. The apparently high waste values in the hotels studied are attributed to their traditional catering methods using a high proportion of unprocessed foods and offering extensive menus. The low waste values in the restaurant complex reflects the almost total use of preprepared food items, restricted menus, customers paying for each meal at the time of eating and established company control procedures.
Environmental Audits of Hazardous Waste Disposal and Treatment Facilities
Authors: Wong J. , Roig R. , Eduljee G.H. 
Published: October 2007

Hazardous waste generators have a duty of care in ensuring that their wastes are disposed of in an environmentally acceptable manner. Increasingly, generators are being made liable for environmental damage at the site of a waste disposal contractor if their wastes have been accepted by that facility. An audit procedure is described, that permits generators to examine the performance of waste vendors and to assess their potential liability as a result of using the site. Post-audit decisions in estimating the degree of risk and selecting appropriate waste contractors are also discussed. The purpose of this paper is to guide the prospective auditor through the site assessment procedure, highlighting areas of particular concern in relation to present or future potential liabilities. The audit procedure that is described, applies to all types of waste disposal operations in all countries, since the principles of good waste management do not vary.
Treatment of Organic-Contaminated Industrial Wastes Using Cement-Based Stabilization/Solidification— Ii. Microstructural Analysis of the Organophilic Clay as a Pre-Solidification Adsorbent
Authors: Montgomery D.M. , Sollars C.J. , Perry R. , Tarling S.E. , Barnes P. , Henderson E. 
Published: October 2007

In the preceding paper detailed microstructural studies were presented of some fundamental aspects of the interactions of two organic compounds on a cement matrix. Organophilic clays are now attracting increasing attention as potential pre-solidification adsorbents to reduce adverse organic-cement interactions in solidification/stabilization (S/S) systems. This paper presents extensive microstructural studies of interactions between an organophilic clay, containing adsorbed organic wastes, and a cement matrix. Such interactions must be as fully understood as possible if the long-term integrity of the organophilic clay/cement mixes, in whatever formulation, is to be assured in S/S applications. A range of mixes was made up with the objective of characterizing the interaction of the organophilic clay with phenolic compounds and cement using microstructural methods. This approach was adopted in order to enable essential comparisons to be made between clay-containing and clay-free S/S mixes, using the same organics in both cases. Microstructural studies of organic-free cement/clay mixes showed that the presence of the clay caused an inhibition of the initial ettringite formation, up to seven days, but once ettringite had begun to form it increased to 140% of that in OPC paste at 28 days. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) micrographs showed that the whole fracture surface was covered with a mat of needle shaped crystals approximately 1 μm in length. These results indicated that the incorporation of clay into the cement matrix may cause the strength reduction observed in macrostructural studies by altering the cement hydration reaction. Microstructural analysis of the solidified (post-adsorption) 3-chlorophenol showed that its detrimental effects on the cement hydration reaction were minimized, provided that the maximum adsorption capacity of the clay was not exceeded.
Effects of Volatile Organic Compounds On Clay Landfill Liner Performance
Authors: Edil T.B. , Berthouex P.M. , Park J.K. , Hargett D.L. , Sandstrom L. , Zelmanowitz S. 
Published: October 2007

Clay borrow materials intended for use in a clay liner system were found to be contaminated by low concentrations of volatile organic chemicals (VOCs). The suspected source of contaminants was a nearby Superfund site where similar compounds were found in soil and groundwater. Based on these observations, questions were raised regarding the potential effects of VOCs on the performance of the clay materials as a landfill liner. Laboratory experiments were conducted to evaluate the effects of three levels of soil precontamination and two types of permeants. Atterberg tests showed that the precontaminations (acetone and m-xylene) and the simulated leachate (methylene chloride, trichloroethylene, and toluene), at the concentrations used, did not impact clay-pore fluid interaction. Sedimentation tests showed that the impact of methylene chloride, trichloroethylene, and toluene on sediment volume and rate of settlement was not detectable up to the maximum concentration level of 100 ppm for each chemical. From the permeation tests, acetone in the precontaminated samples was generally flushed out within three pore volumes but m-xylene was not detected (above the detection limit of 0.01 mg 1-1) in the permeant effluent. The stabilized permeabilities of the specimens ranged from 0.2 × 10-7 to 3.0 × 10-7 cms-1. It was found that precontamination of the clay at the levels studied did not affect organic chemical leachate transport/adsorption discernibly when compared with clean clay, and no measurable retardation or adsorption of VOCs in clay liners occurred in either clean clay or precontaminated clay.
Mineralization in a Calcareous Soil of a Sewage Sludge Composted With Different Organic Residues
Authors: Garcia C. , Hernandez T. , Costa F. 
Published: October 2007

Three sewage sludge composts were obtained from mixtures of an aerobic sludge (AS) and three organic wastes differing widely in chemical composition: an extremely biodegradable waste (municipal solid waste, MSW), a plant residue (grape debris) and a residue with a carbon fraction not easily mineralizable (peat residue). The following mixtures were made, the proportions referring to their total organic carbon content: AS-MSW 1/1, AS-GRAPE 3/1 and AS-PEAT 1/1. These mixtures were composted over 3 months in the open air with periodical turning, and were left to mature afterwards for 4 months. Uncomposted mixtures and composted mixtures, before and after maturation, were incubated for 38 days, under laboratory conditions, with a calcareous soil and the CO2 emission of the samples periodically measured. Uncomposted mixtures emitted much greater quantities of carbon than those composted, whether before or after maturation period. Both at the beginning and at the end of composting, differences were observed between the total amount of carbon emitted by the mixture containing peat waste and the others. However, the quantities of carbon emitted from the three mixtures tended to even out in mature composts, reaching a maximum of 600 mg carbon per 100 g total organic carbon. This shows that, although the mineralization of carbon depends on the nature of the organic waste mixed with the sewage sludge, it tends to even out when the mixtures have undergone composting.
Review: Advances in Intraperitoneal (Intracavitary) Administration of Synthetic Polymers for Immunotherapy and Chemotherapy
Authors: Regelson William 
Published: October 2007

Intraperitoneal (IP) catheters linked to subcutaneous portals have made routine intracavitary chemotherapy or immunotherapy safe and convenient. The IP route is anatomically appropriate for adjuvant or palliative treatment of intracavitary disease. IP chemotherapy has been successfully applied to ovarian, mesothelial, and gastrointestinal tumors. Data shows that IP divinyl ether/maleic anhydride copolymer. MVE-2 (MW 15,000), has distinct localizing and toxicologic differences from that given intravenously (IV). When MVE-2 is given IV renal injury is observed; this is not seen on IP administration. The highest IP concentrations are found in mediastinal and mesenteric nodes, thymus and testis while the highest IV MVE-2 accumulation is found in the liver, spleen, adrenal, and kidney. The IP route for treatment of tumors allows for high local tumoricidal drug concentrations or for regionalized immunostimulation with activating polymers or leukokines. The IP space can provide an antitumor, and antiviral immunizing site and/or a source of activated antitumor peritoneal exudate cells. The use of IP chemotherapy readily permits systemic neutralization of drug toxicity and can provide high portal venous concentrations of drug for the treatment of early liver metastasis. This review speaks to the convenience and safety of the IP intracavitary route which provides a new option for the clinical utilization of polymers where regionalized abdominal effects and improved therapeutic index are warranted. The biologic application of IP polymers requires polymer distribution and kinetic studies which will provide unique tissue concentrations for application to immunization, cancer treatment and other diseases.