bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
On the Management of Inquiry
Authors: Betz Frederick 
Published: November 2008

The problem of managing inquiry is a generalization of the more limited problem of managing research and development projects. As management science attends to the complex problem of educational systems or national science systems, then an awareness is worthwhile of other literatures relevant to the problem. This papersuggests that the manager must determine these major relationships: (a) The institution construct in which inquiry will take place—the literature on universities is reviewed as a source of models for establishing institutional relationships. This involves relating institutionalized activities to external value systems. (b) The internal organizational structure and norms of the inquiry groups themselves—the literature on professionalism is reviewed as a source of models for establishing internal norms and relationships. This involves relating individual member's value systems to the legitimate group norms. (c) The dominating methodology and epistemology employed by the inquirers—relevant literature in philosophy of science (especially social science) is reviewed as a source of models for analyzing different techniques and decision-modes of inquirers. This involves relating the values requisite for efficiency in a given inquiring mode to the values inherent in the purpose of the inquiry.
A Multiple-Product Sales Force Allocation Model
Authors: Montgomery David B. , Silk Alvin J. , Zaragoza Carlos E. 
Published: November 2008

When several products are marketed by the same sales force, it frequently becomes impossible or impractical for salesmen to promote all items in the product line extensively in each and every time period. Management's problem is to decide how the available selling effort should be allocated across products and over time. The opportunity costs associated with using limited selling resources to promote certain products but not others must be evaluated. This paper describes a decision calculus-type modeling system for dealing with this question. The problem is analyzed by a two-step procedure. First, a response function is defined which relates selling effort to sales and profit results in a manner which represents some behavioral phenomena considered to be important. An interactive conversational program elicits judgmental data from managers which are used to parameterize the response model. A separate response function is specified for each product in the firm's line by this method. The set of response functions so obtained becomes the input for the second component of the system, an allocation heuristic. An incremental search procedure is employed to find an allocation of the sales force's time to the various products and over several time periods which is “best” in terms of total contribution to company profits. The model is presented in the context of an ethical drug manufacturer's multiple-product sales force allocation problem. Results of an application are summarized and implementation considerations noted. A comparison of the model-based allocation with that determined previously by management indicated that the former plan would offer a substantial improvement in profits.
On the Scope of Gaming
Authors: Shubik Martin 
Published: November 2008

Gaining and simulation mean different things to different people. Currently there exist separate schools of individuals working on interrelated but basically different areas. Each has its own special goals and terminology. Yet there is a sufficient overlap among them that it is important to clarify the common and different interests and terminology. The general topic of gaming is ripe for an examination to see to what extent there exists a basic methodology and theory of gaming. This paper addresses itself, in part, to this problem. Different types of games and different purposes are discussed. It is stressed that there is not one validation problem but many validation and specification problems which must be addressed if professional standards are to be attained.
A Sequential Stochastic Assignment Problem
Authors: Derman Cyrus , Lieberman Gerald J. , Ross Sheldon M. 
Published: November 2008

Suppose there are n men available to perform n jobs. The n jobs occur in sequential order with the value of each job being a random variable X. Associated with each man is a probability p. If a “p” man is assigned to an “X = x” job, the (expected) reward is assumed to be given by px. After a man is assigned to a job, he is unavailable for future assignments. The paper is concerned with the optimal assignment of the n men to the n jobs, so as to maximize the total expected reward. The optimal policy is characterized, and a recursive equation is presented for obtaining the necessary constants of this optimal policy. In particular, if p1 ≦ p2 ≦ ⋯ ≦ pn the optimal choice in the initial stage of an n stage assignment problem is to use pi if x falls into an ith nonoverlapping interval comprising the real line. These intervals depend on n and the CDF of X, but are independent of the p's. The optimal policy is also presented for the generalized assignment problem, i.e., the assignment problem where the (expected) reward if a “p” man is assigned to an “x” job is given by a function r(p, x).
Multiparametric Linear Programming
Authors: Gal Tomas , Nedoma Josef 
Published: November 2008

The multiparametric linear programming (MLP) problem for the right-hand sides (RHS) is to maximize z = cTx subject to Ax = b(λ), x ≧ 0, where b(λ) be expressed in the form [Formula: see text] where F is a matrix of constant coefficients, and λ is a vector-parameter. The multiparametric linear programming (MLP) problem for the prices or objective function coefficients (OFC) is to maximize z = cT(v)x subject to Ax = b, x ≧ 0, where c(I) can be expressed in the form c(v) = c* + Hv, and where H is a matrix of constant coefficients, and v a vector-parameter. Let Bi be an optimal basis to the MLP-RHS problem and Ri be a region assigned to Bi such that for all λ ϵ Ri the basis Bi is optimal. Let K denote a region such that K = UiRi provided that the Ri for various I do not overlap. The purpose of this paper is to present an effective method for finding all regions Ri that cover K and do not overlap. This method uses an algorithm that finds all nodes of a finite connected graph. This method uses an algorithm that finds all nodes of a finite connected graph. An analogus method is presented for the MLP-OFC problem.
Earnings Estimates and the Accuracy of Expectational Data
Authors: Elton Edwin J. , Gruber Martin J. 
Published: November 2008

This paper examines the accuracy of forecasts produced by mechanical forecasting techniques and three groups of analysts. The nine mechanical forecasting techniques are variations of exponentially weighted moving averages, naive models, simple moving averages, and regressions. One-, two- and three-year forecasts are used to evaluate these techniques. The mechanical techniques exhibit statistically significant differences in their ability to forecast earnings per share, with the exponentially weighted moving averages producing the best forecasts. One-year forecasts produced by the best of the mechanical forecasting techniques were compared to the corresponding analysts' projections. No statistically significant difference could be discerned.
A Direct Approach to Choice under Uncertainty
Authors: Kamien Morton I. , Schwartz Nancy L. 
Published: November 2008

In a problem of decision making under uncertainty, the payoff is random, obeying some probability distribution. The distribution depends upon both the problem faced and the action taken by the decision maker. For example, in the selection of a portfolio, funds are allocated among securities, each of which has an associated distribution over the return it yields. The allocation results in a composite probability distribution over the total return from the entire portfolio. Although it is typical to select an action, which in turn implies a resulting distribution, we suggest in the present paper that it may sometimes be appropriate to select a probability distribution directly, or to view the problem abstractly as though the distribution were to be developed directly. We envision the decision maker selecting a most preferred distribution over payoffs via modification of an existing probability distribution at a direct monetary cost. Thus the family of distributions from which the decision maker can choose is implicitly defined by initial wealth, the original distribution, and the modification cost function. A formal statement of a class of problems for which our direct approach may be appropriate is developed, followed by examples. The illustrations cover problems of preventive maintenance for a machine subject to failure, pricing of a product under threat of rival entry, and planning a risky R and D project.
Allocating Resources between Research and Development: A Macro Analysis
Authors: Gaver D. P. , Srinivasan V. 
Published: November 2008

This paper attempts to coordinate at the macro level the research potential and the development capability of an organization in a competitive environment. New product ideas generate from various sources of research which are then processed (preliminary screening, market appraisal, technical development etc.) by the development section. In view of the randomness present in the above process, a backlog of ideas will normally be present awaiting development. The longer the delay in processing them, the greater are the chances of a competitor introducing the product in the meantime. Simple queueing models are set up which abstract the essence of the problem, and reveal the causal relationships of the underlying structure. The decision variable (relationship of the research rate to the development rate) is optimized, and its sensitivity to changes in the parameters describing the environment is examined. Generalizations of the approach using Monte-Carlo methods arc also indicated.
Uncertain Value Functions
Authors: White D. J. 
Published: November 2008

Value theory plays an essential role in the formal solution of decision problems, but the experimental determination of value functions is subject to errors of various kinds. Sensitivity analyses are methodologically invalid. An attempt is made to overcome the uncertainties in derivation of value functions, in a manner which is similar to the economist's “Pareto optimality” approach. Results are presented for the 2-dimensional situation, and extended to the more general n-dimensional case. In the case when preferences and indifferences are certain the usual results follow. It is shown how the results can be used to cut down the region of initial feasible solutions to a region within which the decisionmaker makes no initial discrimination, when the boundary regions are convex. A comparison is made with the approaches of Luce and Aumann, whose work is of a similar, but not equivalent, nature.
A Measure of an Individual's Power in a Group
Authors: Hofshi Rami , Korsh James F. 
Published: November 2008

A mathematical model is presented for assigning numerical weights to each individual of an organization. The model is based on verbal definitions presently used in the social sciences to describe an individual's power or influence within a group of individuals. Thus the numerical weights derived can be interpreted as measures of the power or influence that individuals have in an organization. The model is not meant to be generally descriptive of group dynamics. It can be used, however, to obtain a group preference structure from individual preference structures.
The ORSA New Orleans Address on Compact City
Authors: Dantzig George B. 
Published: November 2008

The failure of urban planners, politicians, and bureaucrats to cope with urban crises and come up with solutions that work, stems from a fundamental inability to deal with complexity. The urban environment is complex, inter-related, highly dynamic. Nothing less than a total-system approach using the tools of mathematical and computer simulation models can hope to attack the problems of urban over growth. It is important to develop analytic, computer and simulation type models of the total urban system and of detailed subsystems in order to compare various arrangements such as the current megalopolis with its sprawl, and new satelite towns and cities built to make more effective use of vertical space and the round-the-clock use of facilities. Cities that make effective use of the vertical dimension and time, represent a viable alternative and should be given serious consideration.
Square Root Laws for Fire Engine Response Distances
Authors: Kolesar Peter , Blum Edward H. 
Published: November 2008

An inverse square-root function is developed for the relation between average response distance and the number of locations at which response units are stationed in a region. Analysis of theoretical models, simulation data, and empirical measurements are used to confirm the square-root model. The square-root response distance model is combined with response distance—response time relations to resolve decision problems important to the management of urban fire departments. The results can be used to find optimal resource allocations given resource constraints and response time standards, or to describe the response time consequences of proposed allocation plans.
On Normal Approximations of the Frequency Functions of Standard Forms Where the Main Variables are Normally Distributed
Authors: Hayya Jack C. , Ferrara William L. 
Published: November 2008

Risk analysts frequently encounter functional relationships concerning costs and revenue which can be expressed as standard algebraic forms. The forms are quadratic, product, or mixed functions of variables which are normally distributed and not necessarily statistically independent. (The ratio functions will hopefully be the subject of a paper that follows this.) Generally, interest focuses on the construction of 2σ or 3σ probability intervals for each form. Since probability distributions of these forms, as far as the risk analyst is concerned, are neither tabled nor easily derived, the desired probability intervals are not easily constructed. This paper shows through analysis, review of previous research, and simulation, that under ordinary conditions the probability distribution of these forms can be approximated by more population distributions (e.g., gamma or normal). The paper suggests rules of thumb that allow one to make probability statements about each form without recourse to costly simulation. An application to a financial planning model for an industrial firm augments the theoretical discussion.
Improved Combinatorial Programming Algorithms for a Class of All-Zero-One Integer Programming Problems
Authors: Pierce John F. , Lasky Jeffrey S. 
Published: November 2008

In an earlier paper [Pierce, J. F. 1968. Application of combinatorial programming to a class of all-zero-one integer programming problems. Management Sci. 15 (3, November) 191–209.] combinatorial programming procedures were presented for solving a class of integer programming problems in which all elements are zero or one. By representing the problem elements in a binary computer as bits in a word and employing logical “and” and “or” operations in the problem-solving process, a number of problems involving several hundred integer variables were solved in a matter of seconds. In the present paper a number of improvements in these earlier algorithms are presented, including a new search strategy, methods for reducing the original problem, and mechanisms for feasibility filtering in multi-word problems. With these improvements problem-solving efficiency has been increased in many instances by an order of magnitude. In addition, the present paper contains computational experience obtained in solving problems for the k-best solutions.
Decision Rules in Chance-Constrained Programming: Some Experimental Comparisons
Authors: Smith Douglas V. 
Published: November 2008

A stochastic programming model for evaluation of investment in irrigation is presented. The model reflects the complex hydrologic and economic interactions that arise from consideration of the conjunctive use of ground and surface water, the need for the provision of drainage to irrigated lands, and the use of some lands for rice cultivation. The implications of stochastic precipitation are discussed. Several decision rules for system operation are presented and discussed in terms of computation requirements and the possibility of field implementation. Deterministic equivalents to the probabilistic water requirement constraints are derived for zero-order, linear, and two-piece decision rules, and the model is solved with alternate assumptions regarding the form of the rules to be used. An irrigation project proposed for Bangladesh is chosen to illustrate some possible consequences for investment planning of the choice of decision rules. Decision rules in chance-constrained programming are seen as tools for effecting good approximate solutions to stochastic programming problems when used with knowledge of the technical aspects of the investment decisions to be analyzed.
Representation and Analysis of Multi-Stage Problems in R & D
Authors: Lockett A. G. , Gear A. E. 
Published: November 2008

The paper describes a method of representing and analysing the multi-stage, dynamic nature of many types of research and development projects. The method makes use of a number of well-known techniques, decision trees, mathematical programming and simulation in combination. Each project which could form part of a laboratory portfolio is represented in a modified decision tree format called a “project tree,” and the project trees are then considered in one analysis based on heuristics. The approach is demonstrated using a small illustrative example, and an industrial case study is described, giving attention to computational problems of size.
Operating Policies in Multiechelon Dual-Constraint Job Shops
Authors: Fryer John S. 
Published: November 2008

In this paper a simulation study to examine the effects of operating policies on the performance of a multiechelon dual-constraint job shop is described. A hypothetical shop in which machines and workers are constraining resources is the setting of the study. The shop consists of divisions comprised of work centers which, in turn, contain machines to which workers are assigned. There are fewer workers than machines. Operating policies consist of rules for dispatching and labor control. There are two levels of labor control—decision rules are used for allocating workers to divisions and then to work centers within divisions. The measures of shop performance are mean flow-time, flow-time variance, and worker transfers between divisions and work centers. Labor control decisions prove to be important in their effect on both flow-time and labor transfer measures. In some cases labor control decisions are more important than dispatching decisions. The effects of dispatching decisions on flow-time measures are consistent with previous job shop research. Dispatching decisions also affect labor transfers.
A Variational Study of Optimal Resource Profiles
Authors: Cullingford G. , Prideaux J. D. C. A. 
Published: November 2008

The paper describes a method of supplementing network analysis by taking a global view of project planning. The sequencing constraints normally found in a project are condensed into restrictions on the quantity of work performed by any stage in its duration. The objective is to minimise cost, where cost is considered to vary both with project duration and with the instantaneous rate of change of resource. Variational methods are used to produce optimal work-time and resource-time project profiles. The form of some constraints likely to arise in a project is considered, and the best profiles subject to certain constraints are derived and discussed. The techniques have been used to obtain a lower bound to project cost and to estimate ideal project duration.
The Uses of Game Theory in Management Science
Authors: Shubik Martin 
Published: November 2008

Since the war, there has been a great growth in interest in the theory of organization. The size of many modern organizations has brought to the surface problems of communication and decision-making of a very different nature to those confronted by smaller groups. A large organization appears to be both quantitatively and qualitatively different from a small one. Information flows and decisions that could be comfortably handled by one “jack-of-all-trades” executive in a small organization or in a dictatorial system, where wastage may be no problem, must be broken down and handled by many specialists. In many cases they may never reach the one-man decision level but are finally acted upon by groups. The need to understand these vital processes of decision-making has impelled us to lay emphasis upon the gathering and study of information, the evaluation of goals, and the role of the individual decision-maker. The new methods of game theory appear to provide an important approach to many of the problems of decision-making. In this survey of areas of application of game theory some problems which have been completely formulated, solved, and are of immediate practical value have been discussed in Sections 4 and 5. However, for those interested in the deeper and more important long-range problems which confront the researcher in the behavioral sciences, Section 6 indicates where some of the work of yesterday has taken place and where much of the work of tomorrow must lie.
Allocation Processes with Variable Channel Queues
Authors: Hersh Marvin 
Published: November 2008

A dynamic model is formulated for determining optimum operating policies in a variable channel queuing situation. Such policies are required when workers must be allocated to one of several jobs which have associated with them different waiting costs. In this model, two such jobs are considered: (a) a “queue job” i.e., serving customers in a queue, and (b) performing another task which does not involve waiting customers (called “fixed work”). The criterion of the model is a minimization of the sum of these costs: the cost of customer waiting, the cost of fixed work, and the cost of changing tasks. Decision rules involving the assignment of workers depended upon the number of waiting customers, the anticipated arrival pattern, and the amount of uncompleted fixed work remaining. The model was run using arrival and service data obtained from a medium sized suburban bank together with implicitly derived cost data.
Profit Analyses and Sequential Bid Pricing Models
Authors: Kortanek K. O. , Sodeni J. V. , Sodaro D. 
Published: November 2008

A bid pricing strategy based upon opportunity costs is presented for the firm confronted with the problem of competitively pricing a sequence of sealed tenders for future undifferentiated but interrelated contract work. Each contract, if awarded, will require the expending of predetermined amounts of several restricted resources at a later time. A goal of the bidding strategy is to determine a price structure of the winning bids which maximizes the total contribution over direct costs associated with the time period of resource utilization. According to various levels of complexity of data, several models of the problem are developed together with optimal bid price rules. Each optimal rule involves scarce resource “cost” charges for future opportunities and competitive advantages according to the general bid rule form: OPTIMAL BID PRICE = DIRECT COSTS + OPPORTUNITY COSTS + COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE FEE. Experiences are also given of an adaptive and conditional implementation of the general bid rule for a major chemical manufacturer in a complex business area where sales orders are determined by competitive bidding.