bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size
Authors: Lawrence Andrew R. , Hansen James A. 
Published: April 2007

Abstract
An ensemble-based data assimilation approach is used to transform old ensemble forecast perturbations with more recent observations for the purpose of inexpensively increasing ensemble size. The impact of the transformations are propagated forward in time over the ensemble’s forecast period without rerunning any models, and these transformed ensemble forecast perturbations can be combined with the most recent ensemble forecast to sensibly increase forecast ensemble sizes. Because the transform takes place in perturbation space, the transformed perturbations must be centered on the ensemble mean from the most recent forecasts. Thus, the benefit of the approach is in terms of improved ensemble statistics rather than improvements in the mean. Larger ensemble forecasts can be used for numerous purposes, including probabilistic forecasting, targeted observations, and to provide boundary conditions to limited-area models. This transformed lagged ensemble forecasting approach is explored and is shown to give positive results in the context of a simple chaotic model. By incorporating a suitable perturbation inflation factor, the technique was found to generate forecast ensembles whose skill were statistically comparable to those produced by adding nonlinear model integrations. Implications for ensemble forecasts generated by numerical weather prediction models are briefly discussed, including multimodel ensemble forecasting.
A Data Assimilation Case Study Using a Limited-Area Ensemble Kalman Filter
Authors: Dirren Sébastien , Torn Ryan D. , Hakim Gregory J. 
Published: April 2007

Abstract
Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation experiments are conducted on a limited-area domain over the Pacific Northwest region of the United States, using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Idealized surface pressure, radiosoundings, and aircraft observations are assimilated every 6 h for a 7-day period in January 2004. The objectives here are to study the performance of the filter in constraining analysis errors with a relatively inhomogeneous, sparse-observation network and to explore the potential for such a network to serve as the basis for a real-time EnKF system dedicated to the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. When only a single observation type is assimilated, results show that the ensemble-mean analysis error and ensemble spread (standard deviation) are significantly reduced compared to a control ensemble without assimilation for both observed and unobserved variables. Analysis errors are smaller than background errors over nearly the entire domain when averaged over the 7-day period. Moreover, comparisons of background errors and observation increments at each assimilation step suggest that the flow-dependent filter corrections are accurate in both scale and amplitude. An illustrative example concerns a misspecified mesoscale 500-hPa short-wave trough moving along the British Columbia coast, which is corrected by surface pressure observations alone. The relative impact of each observation type upon different variables and vertical levels is also discussed.
Latitude–Height Structure of the Atmospheric Angular Momentum Cycle Associated with the Madden–Julian Oscillation
Authors: Egger Joseph , Weickmann Klaus 
Published: April 2007

Abstract
The angular momentum cycle of the Madden–Julian oscillation is analyzed by regressing the zonally averaged axial angular momentum (AAM) budget including fluxes and torques against the first two principal components P1 and P2 of the empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). The maximum of P1 coincides with an OLR minimum near 150°E and a shift from anomalously negative AAM to positive AAM in the equatorial troposphere. AAM anomalies of one sign develop first in the upper-equatorial troposphere and then move downward and poleward to the surface of the subtropics within two weeks. During the same time the opposite sign AAM anomaly develops in the upper-equatorial troposphere. The tropical troposphere is warming when P1 approaches its maximum while the stratosphere is cooling. The torques are largest in the subtropics and are linked with the downward and poleward movement of AAM anomalies. The evolution is conveniently summarized using a time–height depiction of the global mean AAM and vertical flux anomaly.
A Modified Approach to Initialize an Idealized Extratropical Cyclone within a Mesoscale Model
Authors: Olson Joseph B. , Colle Brian A. 
Published: April 2007

Abstract
A technique for initializing realistic idealized extratropical cyclones for short-term (0–72 h) numerical simulations is described. The approach modifies select methods from two previous studies to provide more control over the initial cyclone structure. Additional features added to the technique include 1) deformation functions to initialize more realistic low-level fronts, tropopause structure, and enhanced jet maximum at upper levels; 2) a barotropic shear function to help develop different cyclone and frontal geometries; and 3) damping functions to create an isolated baroclinic wave in the horizontal; therefore, the initialized cyclone is not influenced by the domain boundaries for relatively short simulations. Since this procedure allows for control of the initialized cyclone structures, it may be useful for studies of frontal and cyclone interaction with topography and mesoscale predictability. The initialization system produces a variety of basic states and synoptic disturbances, ranging from weak to explosively developing cyclones. Examples are shown to provide some insight on how to adjust selected parameters. The output is compatible with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model and the Weather Research and Forecasting model. This note describes the procedure as well as presents an example of a landfalling cyclone along the U.S. west coast with and without terrain.
Evaluation of a Technique for Radar Identification of Large Hail across the Upper Midwest and Central Plains of the United States
Authors: Donavon Rodney A. , Jungbluth Karl A. 
Published: April 2007

Abstract
Radar data were analyzed for severe thunderstorms that produced severe hail (&gt;19 mm diameter) across the central and northern plains of the United States during the 2001–04 convective seasons. Results showed a strongly linear relationship between the 50-dBZ echo height and the height of the melting level—so strong that a severe hail warning methodology was successfully deployed at the National Weather Service Warning and Forecast Offices in North Dakota and Iowa. Specifically, for each of 183 severe hailstorms, the 50-dBZ echo height near the hail event time was plotted against the depth of the environmental melting level. Linear regression revealed a coefficient of determination of 0.86, which suggested a strong linear relationship between the 50-dBZ echo height and the melting-level depth for the severe hail producing storms. As the height of the melting level increased, the expected 50-dBZ echo height increased. A severe warning criterion for large hail was based on the 10th percentile from the linear regression, producing a probability of detection of 90% and a false alarm rate of 22%. Additional analysis found that the 50-dBZ echo-height technique performs very well for weakly to moderately sheared thunderstorm environments. However, for strongly sheared, supercell-type environments, signatures such as weak-echo regions and three-body scatter spikes led to more rapid severe thunderstorm detection in many cases.
The Advanced Dvorak Technique: Continued Development of an Objective Scheme to Estimate Tropical Cyclone Intensity Using Geostationary Infrared Satellite Imagery
Authors: Olander Timothy L. , Velden Christopher S. 
Published: April 2007

Abstract
Tropical cyclones are becoming an increasing menace to society as populations grow in coastal regions. Forecasting the intensity of these often-temperamental weather systems can be a real challenge, especially if the true intensity at the forecast time is not well known. To address this issue, techniques to accurately estimate tropical cyclone intensity from satellites are a natural goal because in situ observations over the vast oceanic basins are scarce. The most widely utilized satellite-based method to estimate tropical cyclone intensity is the Dvorak technique, a partially subjective scheme that has been employed operationally at tropical forecast centers around the world for over 30 yr. With the recent advent of improved satellite sensors, the rapid advances in computing capacity, and accumulated experience with the behavioral characteristics of the Dvorak technique, the development of a fully automated, computer-based objective scheme to derive tropical cyclone intensity has become possible.
In this paper the advanced Dvorak technique is introduced, which, as its name implies, is a derivative of the original Dvorak technique. The advanced Dvorak technique builds on the basic conceptual model and empirically derived rules of the original Dvorak technique, but advances the science and applicability in an automated environment that does not require human intervention. The algorithm is the culmination of a body of research that includes the objective Dvorak technique (ODT) and advanced objective Dvorak technique (AODT) developed at the University of Wisconsin—Madison’s Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies. The ODT could only be applied to storms that possessed a minimum intensity of hurricane/typhoon strength. In addition, the ODT still required a storm center location to be manually selected by an analyst prior to algorithm execution. These issues were the primary motivations for the continued advancement of the algorithm (AODT). While these two objective schemes had as their primary goal to simply achieve the basic functionality and performance of the Dvorak technique in a computer-driven environment, the advanced Dvorak technique exceeds the boundaries of the original Dvorak technique through modifications based on rigorous statistical and empirical analysis. It is shown that the accuracy of the advanced Dvorak technique is statistically competitive with the original Dvorak technique, and can provide objective tropical cyclone intensity guidance for systems in all global basins.
Mesoscale Aspects of the Rapid Intensification of a Tornadic Convective Line across Central Florida: 22–23 February 1998
Authors: Wasula Alicia C. , Bosart Lance F. , Schneider Russell , Weiss Steven J. , Johns Robert H. , Manikin Geoffrey S. , Welsh Patrick 
Published: April 2007

Abstract
The 22–23 February 1998 central Florida tornado outbreak was one of the deadliest and costliest in Florida’s history; a number of long-track tornadoes moved across the Florida peninsula after 0000 UTC 23 February 1998. In the 12–24 h prior to 0000 UTC 23 February, a vigorous upper-level synoptic system was tracking across the southeast United States, and a north–south-oriented convective band located ahead of the cold front was moving eastward across the Gulf of Mexico. Strong vertical wind shear was present in the lowest 1 km, due to a ∼25 m s−1 low-level jet at 925 hPa and south-southeasterly surface flow over the Florida peninsula. Further, CAPE values across the central Florida peninsula exceeded 2500 J kg−1. Upon making landfall on the Florida peninsula, the convective band rapidly intensified and developed into a line of tornadic supercells. This paper examines the relationship between a diabatically induced front across the central Florida peninsula and the rapid development of tornadic supercells in the convective band after 0000 UTC 23 February. Results suggest that persistent strong frontogenesis helped to maintain the front and enhanced ascent in the warm, moist unstable air to the south of the east–west-oriented front on the Florida peninsula, thus allowing the updrafts to rapidly intensify as they made landfall. Further, surface observations from three key locations along the surface front suggest that a mesolow moved eastward along the front just prior to the time when supercells developed. It is hypothesized that the eastward-moving mesolow may have caused the winds in the warm air to the south of the surface front to back to southeasterly and create a favorable low-level wind profile in which supercells could rapidly develop.
An Alert Classification System for Monitoring and Assessing the ENSO Cycle
Authors: Kousky V. E. , Higgins R. W. 
Published: April 2007

AbstractAn alert classification system for the ENSO cycle is introduced. The system includes watches, advisories, and a five-class intensity scale for warm and cold phases of the ENSO cycle. A watch is issued when conditions are favorable for the formation of an El Niño or La Niña within the next 6 months. An advisory is issued when El Niño or La Niña conditions are present, based on NOAA’s operational definitions. The intensity scale, referred to as the ENSO Intensity Scale (EIS), is used for operational and retrospective assessments of the intensity of warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) episodes, without being prescriptive concerning ENSO-related anomalies or impacts. The Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC’s) monthly Climate Diagnostics Bulletin and ENSO Diagnostic Discussions will serve as the primary vehicles for disseminating real-time information concerning the ENSO alert status to the scientific community and public at large. An objective method that relates the EIS to anomalies is used to assess the effects of warm and cold episodes. The method is illustrated using precipitation in the global Tropics and subtropics and in the conterminous United States. The methodology is quite general and can be used to relate the ENSO cycle to other quantities.
Radar Signatures of Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes in Central North Carolina
Authors: Schneider Douglas , Sharp Scott 
Published: April 2007

Abstract
During the tropical cyclone season of 2004, there were four tropical cyclones that spawned tornadoes in central North Carolina: Frances, Gaston, Ivan, and Jeanne. This study examines the environmental characteristics and radar signatures from these events. The tornado warning decision-making process is a difficult one during any severe weather event, but it is even more difficult in a tropical cyclone environment because of the subtlety of features and rapid tornadogenesis that can occur. Previous studies that have examined the characteristics of a tropical cyclone environment found that high low-level moisture content, high shear, and a midlevel intrusion of dry air are favorable for tornadoes. The tropical cyclones that are examined in the current study all exhibited these characteristics. Radar signatures associated with these tornadoes were more subtle and weaker when compared with nontropical cyclone tornadoes, but were still discernable. This study analyzed the radar signatures from tornadic and nontornadic storms in a tropical cyclone environment with the purpose of determining the best indicators of tornadogenesis. Three precursors were found to give good lead time for tornado touchdowns: 1) a near gate-to-gate mesocyclone rotational velocity of 20 kt (10.3 m s−1) or greater, 2) a hook or appendage signature in the reflectivity data, and 3) the presence of a velocity enhancement signature of 30 kt (15.4 m s−1) or greater between 7000 ft (2.1 km) and 14 000 ft (4.2 km) AGL. Using these signatures together in the tornado warning decision-making process can increase lead time and accuracy in the tropical cyclone environment.
Summer Rainfall Forecast Spread in an Ensemble Initialized with Different Soil Moisture Analyses
Authors: Aligo Eric A. , Gallus William A. , Segal Moti 
Published: April 2007

Abstract
The performance of an ensemble forecasting system initialized using varied soil moisture alone has been evaluated for rainfall forecasts of six warm season convective cases. Ten different soil moisture analyses were used as initial conditions in the ensemble, which used the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Advanced Research WRF (ARW) model at 4-km horizontal grid spacing with explicit rainfall. Soil moisture analyses from the suite of National Weather Service operational models—the Rapid Update Cycle, the North American Model (formerly known as the Eta Model), and the Global Forecasting System—were used to design the 10-member ensemble. For added insight, two other runs with extremely low and high soil moistures were included in this study. Although the sensitivity of simulated 24-h rainfall to soil moisture was occasionally substantial in both weakly forced and strongly forced cases, a U-shaped rank histogram indicated insufficient spread in the 10-member ensemble. This result suggests that ensemble forecast systems using soil moisture perturbations alone might not add enough variability to rainfall forecasts. Perturbations to both atmospheric initial conditions and land surface initial conditions as well as perturbations to other aspects of model physics may increase forecast spread. Correspondence ratio values for the 0.01- and 0.5-in. rainfall thresholds imply some spread in the soil moisture ensemble, but mainly in the weakly forced cases. Relative operating characteristic curves for the 10-member ensemble and for various rainfall thresholds indicate modest skill for all thresholds with the most skill associated with the lowest rainfall threshold, a result typical of warm season events.
Influence of grinding on graphite crystallinity from experimental and natural data: implications for graphite thermometry and sample preparation
Authors: Crespo E. , Luque F. J. , Barrenechea J. F. , Rodas M. 
Published: April 2007

AbstractThis paper examines the effects of shear stress on the structural parameters that define the ‘crystallinity’ of graphite. The results show that highly crystalline graphite samples ground for up to 120 min do not undergo detectable changes in the three-dimensional arrangement of carbon layers but crystallite sizes (Lc and La) decrease consistently with increasing grinding time. Grinding also involves particle-size diminution that results in lower temperatures for the beginning of combustion and exothermic maxima in the differential thermal analysis curves. These changes in the structural and thermal characteristics of graphite upon grinding must be taken into account when such data are used for geothermometric estimations.Tectonic shear stress also induces reduction of the particle size and the Lc and La values of highly crystalline graphite. Thus, the temperature of formation of graphite according to structural as well as thermal data is underestimated by up to 100°C in samples that underwent the most intense shear stress. Therefore, application of graphite geothermometry to fluid-deposited veins where graphite is the only mineral found should take into consideration the effect of tectonic shearing, or the estimated temperatures must be considered as minimum temperatures of formation only.
A mechanism for the formation of the mineralized Mn deposits at Merehead Quarry, Cranmore, Somerset, England
Authors: Turner R. 
Published: April 2007

AbstractMississippi Valley type galena deposits emplaced into Carboniferous limestones throughout the Mendip Hills during the late Permian or Triassic period were locally exposed to the action of seawater during the Jurassic period following regional uplift and erosion of the intervening strata. Oxidation of galena initiated the deposition of manganate minerals from the seawater, and these adsorbed heavy metals from both the seawater and local environment. A subsequent hydrothermal event heated the lead-manganate deposits causing decomposition of the galena and creating the conditions which led to the formation of the suite of unusual secondary minerals – including a number of rare oxychlorides – now found at Merehead. Heating of the manganate phases converted them to Mn oxides and released the entrained heavy metals which were then incorporated into unusual mineral phases. The impervious Mn oxide coating which enclosed the cooling Pb-rich areas isolated them chemically, leading to closed-system behaviour. The high-T phases at Merehead are similar to those found in the Pb-bearing silicic skarns at Långban, whilst the suite of secondary minerals which evolved in the closed-system environments bears striking similarities to the ‘anomalous sequence’ of minerals found at the Mammoth-St. Antony Mine. The complexity of these formation processes probably explains the rarity of Mendip-type Pb-Mn deposits. The collective importance of the disconformity, the hydrothermal event, and subsequent sealing of the deposits are recognized for the first time, and the temperature of the hydrothermal event is shown to have been much greater than has heretofore been realized. Silurian volcanic strata underlying the Carboniferous limestones which have previously been assumed to be the source of heavy metals are shown to have been uninvolved in the process.
Fe(II)/Fe(III) ‘green rust’ developed within ochreous coal mine drainage sediment in South Wales, UK
Authors: Bearcock J. M. , Perkins W. T. , Dinelli E. , Wade S. C. 
Published: April 2007

Abstract‘Green rusts’ are a group of reduced Fe hydroxides with a pyroaurite-like structure. In a new occurrence, green rust is present as a 45–60 mm thick band which lies just below the surface (∼4 mm) of an ochreous deposit at an abandoned coal mine site. The sample is characterized by the presence of μm-sized hexagonal crystals which have been identified from SEM imaging. Chemical analyses reveal an Fe(II):Fe(III) ratio which is close to the characteristic 2:1 ratio, and XRD analysis identifies the material by characteristic lattice spacings. The green rust layer also contains aragonite which is not present in the surrounding ochre. Green rusts are important as they have the potential to be used in water treatment.
The C-MYB locus is involved in chromosomal translocation and genomic duplications in human T-cell acute leukemia (T-ALL), the translocation defining a new T-ALL subtype in very young children
Authors: Clappier Emmanuelle , Cuccuini Wendy , Kalota Anna , Crinquette Antoine , Cayuela Jean-Michel , Dik Willem A. , Langerak Anton W. , Montpellier Bertrand , Nadel Bertrand , Walrafen Pierre , Delattre Olivier , Aurias Alain , Leblanc Thierry , Dombret Hervé , Gewirtz Alan M. , Baruchel André , Sigaux François , Soulier Jean 
Published: April 2007

AbstractThe C-Myb transcription factor is essential for hematopoiesis, including in the T-cell lineage. The C-Myb locus is a common site of retroviral insertional mutagenesis, however no recurrent genomic involvement has been reported in human malignancies. Here, we identified 2 types of genomic alterations involving the C-MYB locus at 6q23 in human T-cell acute leukemia (T-ALL). First, we found a reciprocal translocation, t(6;7)(q23;q34), that juxtaposed the TCRB and C-MYB loci (n = 6 cases). Second, a genome-wide copy-number analysis by array-based comparative genomic hybridization (array-CGH) identified short somatic duplications that include C-MYB (MYBdup, n = 13 cases of 84 T-ALL, 15%). Expression analysis, including allele-specific approaches, showed stronger C-MYB expression in the MYB-rearranged cases compared with other T-ALLs, and a dramatically skewed C-MYB allele expression in the TCRB-MYB cases, which suggests that a translocation-driven deregulated expression may overcome a cellular attempt to down-regulate C-MYB. Strikingly, profiling of the T-ALLs by clinical, genomic, and large-scale gene expression analyses shows that the TCRB-MYB translocation defines a new T-ALL subtype associated with a very young age for T-cell leukemia (median, 2.2 years) and with a proliferation/mitosis expression signature. By contrast, the MYBdup alteration was associated with the previously defined T-ALL subtypes.