bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Improving Accuracy in Multiple Regression Estimates of Population Using Principles from Causal Modelling
Authors: Swanson David A. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper reports a mildly restricted procedure for using a theoretical causal ordering and principles from path analysis to provide a basis for modifying regression coefficients in order to improve the estimation accuracy of the ratio-correlation method of population estimation. The modification is intended to take into account temporal changes in the structure of variable relationships, a major element in determining the accuracy of post-censal estimates. The modification of coefficients is conservative in that it uses rank-ordering as a basis of change. Empirical results are reported for counties in Washington state that demonstrate the increased accuracy obtained using the proposed procedure.
Estimating the Effect of Child Mortality on the Number of Births
Authors: Olsen Randall J. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This article rigorously derives the properties of the regression of births on child deaths. It is shown how the raw regression coefficient may be corrected for the effects of fertility on mortality so that the rate at which dead children are replaced may be estimated. The method is applied to data from Colombia. It is found that the mortality rate differs across individuals and is correlated with fertility. Such conditions vitiate the use of birth intervals and parity progression ratios yet can be dealt with using the new method. On average each death produces 0.2 new births as a direct result of the death. Fertility hoarding may raise the total fertility response to roughly one-half birth per death.
Historical epidemiology of smallpox in Åland, Finland: 1751–1890
Authors: Mielke James H. , Jorde Lynn B. , Gene Trapp P. , Anderton Douglas L. , Pitkänen Kari , Eriksson Aldur W. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
We analyze a 140-year series of smallpox deaths in the Åland Islands, Finland. Vaccination, introduced in 1805, dramatically reduced the annual number of smallpox deaths. It also influenced the age distribution of smallpox deaths, changing smallpox from a childhood disease before 1805 to one which affected both adults and children after 1805. This appears to be due to the fact that Ålanders were usually vaccinated only once during childhood and often lost their immunity during adulthood. Spectral analysis of the prevaccination time series of smallpox deaths demonstrates a strong seven-year periodicity, reflecting the amount of time necessary to build up a cohort of nonimmune individuals. After the introduction of vaccination, the periodicity changes to eight years. The probability that a parish in Åland was affected by a smallpox epidemic is shown to be highly correlated with migration patterns and parish population sizes.
The impact of child mortality on spacing by parity: A Cox-regression analysis
Authors: Lehrer Evelyn 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Child mortality may affect spacing through biological and behavioral channels. The death of a child may elicit a desire to have another one soon; further, it may interrupt breastfeeding and shorten the sterile period following childbirth. The hypothesis that the child mortality-spacing linkage varies across parities, being strongest in the middle parities, is examined using microdata from Malaysia and the Cox-regression technique. The empirical results lend support to the hypothesis.
Fertility adaptation of rural-to-urban migrant women: A method of estimation applled to Korean women
Authors: Farber Stephen C. , Lee Bun Song 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This study proposes to test for the existence of an adaptation effect of rural-to-urban migration. The design is to divide migrants into two groups at the time of observation: one group which had migrated by that time, and another group consisting of individuals who had not yet migrated but are known to migrate later. It is presumed that if the former group had not migrated it would have had a birth path similar to the latter group. Adaptation is measured by the difference between this hypothetical birth path and the actual birth path of migrants observed after they migrate. The model is tested on Korean women and found to support the existence of an adaptation effect.
Decomposition of the difference between two rates with hierarchical factors
Authors: Kim Young J. , Strobino Donna M. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
A decomposition method for the difference between two rates when data are classified by two factors, one of which may be considered as a more direct factor than the other for the event under consideration, is presented in this paper. The two factors are treated as hierarchical and thus this method is conceptually different from the decomposition methods of Kitagawa (1955) and Das Gupta (1978), in which two factors are treated as symmetrical. Our method is shown to be a balanced version of the Cho-Retherford (1973) decomposition method. Analyses of neonatal mortality rates using our method are presented as an example.
Improving the measurement of temporal change in regression models used for county population estimates
Authors: Swanson David A. , Tedrow Lucky M. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The ratio-correlation method of population estimation is shown to contain an inconsistent temporal relationship between the model’s empirical structure and its actual application. A simple transformation of the model’s variables is provided that eliminates the inconsistency. Two tests of the relative accuracy of the original and transformed models show that the transformed model achieves accuracy levels equal to or higher than the original. In one test, all nine years show a higher degree of accuracy, of which four are statistically significant. Several possible reasons are given for the increased accuracy shown by the transformed model. The transformation, termed the “rate-correlation” model, is recommended as a logical starting point in the examination of coefficient stability and spatial autocorrelation as well as a method for estimating small populations.
An assessment of the accuracy of a regional economic-demographic projection model
Authors: Murdock Steve H. , Leistritz F. Larry , Hamm Rita R. , Hwang Sean-Shong , Parpia Banoo 
Published: March 2007

AbstractA large number of regional economic-demographic projection models have been developed but their accuracy has seldom been evaluated. This article examines the accuracy of one such model in projecting total populations for 1980, using 1970 base data, for 106 counties and 553 places in two states.Comparisons of the model’s projections to 1980 Census counts reveal mean percentage absolute differences of 10 percent for counties and 14 percent for places. In addition, the model’s accuracy was comparable to that for alternative projection systems. When projections for places of less than 1,000 are excluded, differences are substantially reduced. Economic-demographic models appear to be quite useful and deserve further attention.
Averaging population density
Authors: Craig John 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Population density is a commonly quoted statistic. Almost no general descriptive summary of the population of an area is complete without a density listing, table or map. As each such density statistic is an average, it is worth considering what kind of average is being used. This article analyzes this and illustrates the effect of some alternative calculations using population density data for Great Britain; the findings, however, are of general validity.
Individual Mobility, Population Growth and Labor Force Participation
Authors: Cantrell R. Stephen , Clark Robert L. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Trends in labor force participation rates and the age of retirement are shown to be important determinants of upward mobility. Reductions in age specific participation rates increase the speed of movement through the employment hierarchy. In conjunction with economic development, the falling labor force participation of older men acts to offset the adverse effects of slowing population growth on promotional prospects. These conclusions are reached by extending a model of employment status developed by Keyfitz to limit employment competition to only those actually in the labor force.
A Macrosimulation Approach to the Investigation of Natural Fertility
Authors: Willigan J. Dennis , Mineau Geraldine P. , Anderton Douglas L. , Bean Lee L. 
Published: March 2007

AbstractThis paper is part of a long-term investigation known as the Mormon Historical Demography Project. It examines the capability of a simulation model, originally proposed by John Bongaarts (1976), to fit the natural fertility pattern which characterized the mid-nineteenth century Mormon population. Application of this model permits estimates to be made of the historical timing and age-incidence of fertility limitation. A sensitivity analysis of the model’s parameters demonstrates that simple changes in the model’s proximate determinants of fertility, excluding contraceptive practices, would be insufficientto account for later transition effects. Thus the results successfully capture the dynamics underlying the Mormon natural fertility pattern as well as offer a framework for future modeling of the transition away from natural fertility.
The Transition to Nonmetropolitan Population Deconcentration
Authors: Lichter Daniel T. , Fuguitt Glenn V. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
A major aim of this study is to address our lack of understanding of rural-urban population change within nonmetropolitan counties of the United States. Specifically, we (a) examine trends between 1950 and 1975 in differential rural and urban growth rates within nonmetropolitan counties, and (b) examine the relationship between county location/function and within-county deconcentration. We show that the post-1970period has not simply marked the net shift of population from metropolitan to nonmetropolitan areas, but has also ushered in a pattern of population deconcentration within most nonmetropolitan areas. It is also clear that traditional ecological and economic base variables have been of diminishing utility in explaining deconcentration during the 1970s, suggesting that deconcentration is now evident in nonmetropolitan counties characterized by a broad spectrum of economic and sociodemographic traits.
Intermediate Variables and Educational Differentials in Fertility in Korea and the Philippines
Authors: Bumpass Larry , Rindfuss Ronald R. , Palmore James A. , Concepcion Mercedes , Choi Byoung Mohk 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This analysis compares the effects of contraceptive use and infant and fetal mortality on the pace offertility in Korea and the Philippines and explores the mediating effects of these intermediate variables on educational differentials in childspacing. For birth intervals initiated in a recent period before a sample survey, second, third and higher-order intervals are examined. Transitions within successive segments of interval exposure (qxvalues) are examined rather than cumulative transitions (1 - lxvalues). This methodological choice is substantively important because breastfeeding should primarily affect early segments of exposure and because it allows empirical examination of the timing of the effects of other variables such as contraceptive use. Further, this choice allows multivariate analysis within the structure of the life-table perspective. The results show substantial differences in patterns between Korea and the Philippines, indicate clearly the effect of each intermediate variable, and illustrate how educational differentials in fertility are affected by contraception and infant and fetal mortality.
A model of fertility by planning status
Authors: Ryder Norman B. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Data from the 1965 and 1970 National Fertility Studies are used to produce classifications of births and exposure to births by planning status for real and synthetic marriage cohorts, covering the experience of the 1940s, 1950s, and 1960s. Indices of reproductive input (three ends, three means, and three conditions) and of conventional reproductive output (such as the mean number of unintended births) are derived from these observations. The outputs are expressed as deterministic equations in terms of the inputs; this permits the study of the structure of fertility determination. The model provides a parsimonious description of the sources of change in fertility and an instrument of possible use in policy.
The malleability of fertility-related attitudes and behavior in a filipino migrant sample
Authors: Card Josefina Jayme 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The malleability of fertility-related attitudes and behavior was studied by analyzing data collected from cross-sectional groups of Filipino migrants who had lived in the United States for varying lengths of time, in conjunction with data from a comparison group of Caucasians from the Filipinos’ neighborhoods. With increasing number of years lived in the United States, Filipino migrants’ fertility-related knowledge, attitudes, and desires became increasingly similar to those of the Caucasian group, but their contraceptive behavior did not. While approximately equal numbers of Filipinos and Caucasians were contracepting, Filipino couples regardless of duration of stay in the United States were using less effective methods with less regularity. Despite these contraceptive behavior patterns, Filipino migrants perceived that they would have 0.32 fewer children in the United States than they would have had had they remained in the Philippines. By far the most predominant reason given by Filipino respondents for changing fertility patterns in the United States was the difficulty of obtaining child care in the new environment.
Estimating the intrinsic rate of increase of a population from the average numbers of younger and older sisters
Authors: Goldman Noreen 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Based on stable population theory, a mathematical relationship is developed between the intrinsic rate of increase (r) of a population and the ratio (Z) of the average number of younger sisters ever born to the average number of older sisters ever born, for a random sample of women in the population. This mathematical formula is then converted into a technique for estimating r from data on numbers of sisters. The extent to which the technique may be generalizable to actual populations is discussed.
The demeny-shorter and three-census methods for correcting age data
Authors: Ntozi James Patrick Manyenye 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper presents, tests, applies, and compares methods that utilize age data collected at consecutive censuses to examine and adjust for age and coverage errors. The Demeny-Shorter method, for example, was devised for this purpose, and its flexibility in regard to census coverage errors is examined. The Demeny-Shorter method is found difficult to apply directly, so a method based on the same idea as the Demeny-Shorter method but utilizing age data from three, instead of two, successive censuses is presented and discussed as a possible alternative. This three-census method is applied to data from Turkey’s censuses and, in some cases, found to be better than the Demeny-Shorter method, because the former allows for and estimates the likely changes in census coverage and different patterns of age errors in successive censuses. Unfortunately, the three-census method cannot be applied to data from most developing countries on account of a lack of the requisite series of censuses.
Adjustment of rates using multiplicative models
Authors: Clogg Clifford C. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
By the conception of an underlying multiplicative model for cross-classified data, a statistical method for the adjustment of rates is suggested. This method rests upon the multiplicative definition of interaction in cross-classifications and can lead to results different from those obtained from the more usual methods (e.g., Kitagawa, 1964). Comparisons with alternative approaches are made, and illustrative applications to data are provided.
On the derivation of a two-sex stable population model
Authors: Mitra S. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
It is well known that the intrinsic rates of growth derived separately for the males and females in a population, when one assumes the continuation of their respective mortality and fertility experiences, usually turn out to be different. Noting that the phenomenon of human reproduction is a product of the cooperation between the two sexes, we have attempted in this paper to define the sex-age-specific fertility rates as a function not only of age but also of time, where the latter is implicitly introduced in the model through the sex composition of the reproductive population. It has been shown that a stable model can then be defined based on such changing sex-age-specific fertility rates and given sets of unchanging mortality rates. The fertility rates stabilize with time, and the common intrinsic rates of growth for the two sexes are found to lie in the interval generated by the corresponding rates of the two one-sex models. Several other interesting relationships among the parameters of this model have been presented in the paper. Among other alternatives, a least square solution has been presented for the values of sex-age-specific fertility rates that are minimally discrepant with the observed rates but are consistent in terms of the parametric estimates they generate. It is interesting to note that a relatively modest adjustment in the sex-age-specific fertility rates is all that it takes to eliminate the inconsistencies generated by the separate one-sex models.
An evaluation of brass mortality estimates under conditions of declining mortality
Authors: Kraly Ellen Percy , Norris Douglas A. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
An evaluation of the Brass childhood mortality estimates under conditions of declining mortality shows them to overestimate current mortality. Error increases as the rate of mortality decline increases, as the childhood age up to which cumulative mortality is being estimated increases, and as age at onset of childbearing decreases. We use the results to develop a method for correcting the Brass estimates for the effects of quasistability. The method requires an estimate of the rate of mortality decline within the population in addition to information on the pattern of childbearing in the population.
Dynamics of some special populations with NRR = 1
Authors: Kim Young J. , Sykes Zenas M. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
We discuss two special cases of population dynamics with changing vital rates subject to the constraint NRR = I and consider the specifics of ergodicity and stationarity. By restricting the number of age groups to two, we can make explicit the way weak ergodicity works. When mortality is constant and the period NRR = I, a life-table stationary population eventually results; everything of demographic interest (except age-specific fertility and the cohort NRR) is asymptotically constant. With changing mortality, but both period and cohort NRR = 1, only weak ergodicity holds, and everything changes over time.
Population movement and city-suburb redistribution: An analytic framework
Authors: Frey William H. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper introduces an analytic framework that can be used to assess the relationships between individual movement differentials and place characteristics, on the one hand, and aggregate mobility levels and city-suburb population change (in size or composition), on the other. Application of this framework using census data for individual metropolitan areas allows the analyst to decompose population changes due to net migration into contributing mobility streams and their component rates which are subject to unique community and individual influences. The paper provides both theoretical and empirical rationale for the framework, illustrates its use with 1970 census data, and discusses its implications for empirical research on city-suburb population redistribution.
Metropolitan deconcentration: Subareal inmigration and central city to ring mobility patterns among southern SMSAs
Authors: Biggar Jeanne C. , Biasiolli Francis C. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The analysis of in-migration streams and subareal residential mobility patterns for moves made between 1965 and 1970in SMSAs in the East South Central and South Atlantic census divisions indicates that, despite their historical contexts, these metropolitan areas now show spatial differentiation patterns similar to those of the great cities of the Northeast. The white population has increased in ring areas primarily because of in-migration rates; the black population in the central cities has increased primarily because of in-migration rates to those subareas. Little variation in these patterns across SMSA size categories was apparent.
Indigenous labor supply, sustenance organization, and population redistribution in nonmetropolitan America: An extension of the ecological theory of migration
Authors: Poston Dudley L. , White Ralph 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The ecological theory of migration asserts that change in sustenance organization, to the extent that it produces changes in the opportunities for living, necessitates a change in population size. Migration may thus be viewed as a demographic response to the population’s need to reestablish a balance between its size and sustenance organization, thus attaining its best possible living standard. However, the levels of net in- or out-migration needed to restore the balance should be affected by the degree of positive or negative growth of the indigenous labor force population. We thus test the hypothesis that changes in opportunities for living will be balanced by net changes in the number of persons in the labor force, where this is a function of both indigenous labor supply and net migration.
Quantitative aspects of marriage, fertility and family limitation in nineteenth century America: Another application of the coale specifications
Authors: Sanderson Warren C. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper deals with three aspects of the decline in the fertility of white women in the United States from 1800 to 1920. The first concerns the portion of the secular decline in the total fertility rate which was due to changes in marriage rates and the portion due to decreases in marital fertility rates. The second concerns the fraction of couples in the nineteenth century who acted effectively to reduce their fertility and the third deals with the importance of abortion as a family-limiting practice among white couples in the nineteenth century.
Patterns of suburban population growth, 1970–75
Authors: Guest Avery M. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Population redistribution within U.S. suburban rings between 1970 and 1975 was characterized by frequent population declines for individual suburbs. On the whole, recent spatial patterns of suburban population decline are similar in nature, if not overall levels, to those found in the 1950s and 1960s. Population decline is greatest in the inner suburbs, and is also evident, to some extent, in the most peripheral suburbs. Patterns for all metropolitan areas mask clear variation among metropolitan areas. This variation is related to metropolitan age or historical period of development.