bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Multiple-Radar Data Assimilation and Short-Range Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting of a Squall Line Observed during IHOP_2002
Authors: Xiao Qingnong , Sun Juanzhen 
Published: October 2007

Abstract
The impact of multiple–Doppler radar data assimilation on quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) is examined in this study. The newly developed Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and its three-dimensional variational data assimilation system (WRF 3DVAR) are used. In this study, multiple–Doppler radar data assimilation is applied in WRF 3DVAR cycling mode to initialize a squall-line convective system on 13 June 2002 during the International H2O Project (IHOP_2002) and the ARW QPF skills are evaluated for the case. Numerical experiments demonstrate that WRF 3DVAR can successfully assimilate Doppler radial velocity and reflectivity from multiple radar sites and extract useful information from the radar data to initiate the squall-line convective system. Assimilation of both radial velocity and reflectivity results in sound analyses that show adjustments in both the dynamical and thermodynamical fields that are consistent with the WRF 3DVAR balance constraint and background error correlation. The cycling of the Doppler radar data from the 12 radar sites at 2100 UTC 12 June and 0000 UTC 13 June produces a more detailed mesoscale structure of the squall-line convection in the model initial conditions at 0000 UTC 13 June. Evaluations of the ARW QPF skills with initialization via Doppler radar data assimilation demonstrate that the more radar data in the temporal and spatial dimensions are assimilated, the more positive is the impact on the QPF skill. Assimilation of both radial velocity and reflectivity has more positive impact on the QPF skill than does assimilation of either radial velocity or reflectivity only. The improvement of the QPF skill with multiple-radar data assimilation is more clearly observed in heavy rainfall than in light rainfall. In addition to the improvement of the QPF skill, the simulated structure of the squall line is also enhanced by the multiple–Doppler radar data assimilation in the WRF 3DVAR cycling experiment. The vertical airflow pattern shows typical characteristics of squall-line convection. The cold pool and its related squall-line convection triggering process are better initiated in the WRF 3DVAR analysis and simulated in the ARW forecast when multiple–Doppler radar data are assimilated.
Total Lightning Signatures of Thunderstorm Intensity over North Texas. Part I: Supercells
Authors: Steiger Scott M. , Orville Richard E. , Carey Lawrence D. 
Published: October 2007

Abstract
It is shown that total lightning mapping, along with radar and National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) cloud-to-ground lightning data, can be used to diagnose the severity of a thunderstorm. Analysis of supercells, some of which were tornadic, on 13 October 2001 over Dallas–Fort Worth, Texas, shows that Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR II) lightning source heights (quartile, median, and 95th percentile heights) increased as the storms intensified. Most of the total (cloud to ground and intracloud) lightning occurred where reflectivity cores extended upward, within regions of strong reflectivity gradient rather than in reflectivity cores. A total lightning hole was associated with an intense, nontornadic supercell on 6 April 2003. None of the supercells on 13 October 2001 exhibited a lightning hole. During tornadogenesis, the radar and LDAR II data indicated updraft weakening. The height of the 30-dBZ radar top began to descend approximately 10 min (2 volume scans) before tornado touchdown in one storm. Total lightning and cloud-to-ground flash rates decreased by up to a factor of 5 to a minimum during an F2 tornado touchdown associated with this storm. LDAR II source heights all showed descent by 2–4 km during a 25-min period prior to and during this tornado touchdown. This drastic trend of decreasing source heights prior to and during tornado touchdown was observed in two storms, but did not occur in nontornadic supercells, suggesting that these parameters can be useful to forecasters. These observations agree with tornadogenesis theory that as the updraft weakens, the mesocyclone can divide (into an updraft and downdraft) and become tornadic.
Probabilistic Forecasts of the Onset of the North Australian Wet Season
Authors: Lo Fiona , Wheeler Matthew C. , Meinke Holger , Donald Alexis 
Published: October 2007

Abstract
The amount and timing of early wet-season rainfall are important for the management of many agricultural industries in north Australia. With this in mind, a wet-season onset date is defined based on the accumulation of rainfall to a predefined threshold, starting from 1 September, for each square of a 1° gridded analysis of daily rainfall across the region. Consistent with earlier studies, the interannual variability of the onset dates is shown to be well related to the immediately preceding July–August Southern Oscillation index (SOI). Based on this relationship, a forecast method using logistic regression is developed to predict the probability that onset will occur later than the climatological mean date. This method is expanded to also predict the probabilities that onset will be later than any of a range of threshold dates around the climatological mean. When assessed using cross-validated hindcasts, the skill of the predictions exceeds that of climatological forecasts in the majority of locations in north Australia, especially in the Top End region, Cape York, and central Queensland. At times of strong anomalies in the July–August SOI, the forecasts are reliably emphatic. Furthermore, predictions using tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) as the predictor are also tested. While short-lead (July–August predictor) forecasts are more skillful using the SOI, long-lead (May–June predictor) forecasts are more skillful using Pacific SSTs, indicative of the longer-term memory present in the ocean.
Westerly Wind Bursts and Their Relationship with Intraseasonal Variations and ENSO. Part I: Statistics
Authors: Seiki Ayako , Takayabu Yukari N. 
Published: October 2007

Abstract
Statistical features of the relationship among westerly wind bursts (WWBs), the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and intraseasonal variations (ISVs) were examined using 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis data (ERA-40) for the period of January 1979–August 2002. WWBs were detected over the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, but not over the Atlantic Ocean. WWB frequencies for each region were lag correlated with a sea surface temperature anomaly over the Niño-3 region. WWBs tended to occur in sequence, from the western to eastern Pacific, leading the El Niño peak by 9 months to 1 month, respectively, and after around 11 months, over the Indian Ocean. These results suggest that WWB occurrences are not random, but interactive with ENSO. Composite analysis revealed that most WWBs were associated with slowdowns of eastward-propagating convective regions like the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), with the intensified Rossby wave response. However, seasonal and interannual variations in MJO amplitude were not correlated with WWB frequency, while a strong MJO event tended to bear WWBs. It is suggested that the strong MJO amplitude promotes favorable conditions, but it is not the only factor influencing WWB frequency. An environment common to WWB generation in all regions was the existence of background westerlies around the WWB center near the equator. It is inferred that ENSO prepares a favorable environment for the structural transformation of an MJO, that is, the intensified Rossby wave response, that results in WWB generations. The role of the background wind fields on WWB generations will be discussed in a companion paper from the perspective of energetics.
Preemptive Forecasts Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter
Authors: Etherton Brian J. 
Published: October 2007

Abstract
An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) estimates the error statistics of a model forecast using an ensemble of model forecasts. One use of an EnKF is data assimilation, resulting in the creation of an increment to the first-guess field at the observation time. Another use of an EnKF is to propagate error statistics of a model forecast forward in time, such as is done for optimizing the location of adaptive observations. Combining these two uses of an ensemble Kalman filter, a “preemptive forecast” can be generated. In a preemptive forecast, the increment to the first-guess field is, using ensembles, propagated to some future time and added to the future control forecast, resulting in a new forecast. This new forecast requires no more time to produce than the time needed to run a data assimilation scheme, as no model integration is necessary. In an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE), a barotropic vorticity model was run to produce a 300-day “nature run.” The same model, run with a different vorticity forcing scheme, served as the forecast model. The model produced 24- and 48-h forecasts for each of the 300 days. The model was initialized every 24 h by assimilating observations of the nature run using a hybrid ensemble Kalman filter–three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) scheme. In addition to the control forecast, a 64-member forecast ensemble was generated for each of the 300 days. Every 24 h, given a set of observations, the 64-member ensemble, and the control run, an EnKF was used to create 24-h preemptive forecasts. The preemptive forecasts were more accurate than the unmodified, original 48-h forecasts, though not quite as accurate as the 24-h forecast obtained from a new model integration initialized by assimilating the same observations as were used in the preemptive forecasts. The accuracy of the preemptive forecasts improved significantly when 1) the ensemble-based error statistics used by the EnKF were localized using a Schur product and 2) a model error term was included in the background error covariance matrices.
Total Lightning Signatures of Thunderstorm Intensity over North Texas. Part II: Mesoscale Convective Systems
Authors: Steiger Scott M. , Orville Richard E. , Carey Lawrence D. 
Published: October 2007

Abstract
Total lightning data from the Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR II) research network in addition to cloud-to-ground flash data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and data from the Dallas–Fort Worth, Texas, Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) station (KFWS) were examined from individual cells within mesoscale convective systems that crossed the Dallas–Fort Worth region on 13 October 2001, 27 May 2002, and 16 June 2002. LDAR II source density contours were comma shaped, in association with severe wind events within mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) on 13 October 2001 and 27 May 2002. This signature is similar to the radar reflectivity bow echo. The source density comma shape was apparent 15 min prior to a severe wind report and lasted more than 20 min during the 13 October storm. Consistent relationships between severe straight-line winds, radar, and lightning storm cell characteristics (e.g., lightning heights) were not found for cells within MCSs as was the case for severe weather in supercells in Part I of this study. Cell interactions within MCSs are believed to weaken these relationships as reflectivity and lightning from nearby storms contaminate the cells of interest. Another hypothesis for these weak relations is that system, not individual cell, processes are responsible for severe straight-line winds at the surface. Analysis of the total lightning structure of the 13 October 2001 MCS showed downward-sloping source density contours behind the main convective line into the stratiform region. This further supports a charge advection mechanism in developing the stratiform charge structure. Bimodal vertical source density distributions were observed within MCS convection close to the center of the LDAR II network, while the lower mode was not detected at increasing range.
Observed Enhancement of Reflectivity and the Electric Field in Long-Lived Florida Anvils
Authors: Dye James E. , Willett John C. 
Published: October 2007

Abstract
A study of two long-lived Florida anvils showed that reflectivity &gt;20 dBZ increased in area, thickness, and sometimes magnitude at the midlevel well downstream of the convective cores. In these same regions electric fields maintained strengths &gt;10 kV m−1 for many tens of minutes and became quite uniform over tens of kilometers. Millimetric aggregates persisted at 9–10 km for extended times and distances. Aggregation of ice particles enhanced by the strong electric fields might have contributed to reflectivity growth in the early anvil, but is unlikely to explain observations farther out in the anvil. The enhanced reflectivity and existence of small, medium, and large ice particles far out into the anvil suggest that an updraft was acting, perhaps in weak convective cells formed by instability generated from the evaporation and melting of falling ice particles. It is concluded that charge separation must have occurred in these anvils, perhaps at the melting level but also at higher altitudes, in order to maintain fields &gt;10 kV m−1 at 9–10 km for extended periods of time over large distances. The authors speculate that charge separation occurred as a result of ice–ice particle collisions (without supercooled water being present) via either a noninductive or perhaps even an inductive mechanism, given the observed broad ice particle spectra, the strong preexisting electric fields, and the many tens of minutes available for particle interactions. The observations, particularly in the early anvil, show that the charge structure in these anvils was quite complex.
The Interaction between Two Separate Propagations of Rossby Waves
Authors: Wang Yafei , Yamazaki Koji , Fujiyoshi Yasushi 
Published: October 2007

Abstract
This study deals with two teleconnection patterns and the subsequent wave train propagations during an East Asian summer. Diagnostic results are as follows: 1) a stationary wave ray with zonal wavenumber 5 approximates the arc path linking the correlation centers originating from the Caspian Sea via Lake Baikal to the sea off the southeast coast of Japan (i.e., the OKJ arc path as a focus area) in a pentad correlation map between 500-hPa geopotential height (Z500) and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) at 30°N, 150°E in June 1979–98. Ray tracing shows that it took 8–10 days for this stationary wave to propagate from an initial position around the Caspian Sea to the focus area, which roughly coincides with the observed case in July 1998. 2) A wave train pattern (P-Ja) observed in the boreal summer propagated along the arc line in the same way as the normal poleward Rossby wave train originating from the Philippines across the North Pacific (P-J), but with a phase shift northeastward of about 90°. 3) Further correlation analyses showed that the P-J-like waves belong mainly to intraseasonal propagating ones while OKJ waves belong mainly to intraseasonal stationary ones. 4) Propagation of the newly observed wave train pattern (P-Ja) occurred following another wave train along the OKJ arc path in mid-July 1998. Both northeastward and southeastward wave propagations merged off the east coast of Japan. 5) The northeastward-propagating wave train observed in mid-July 1998 was triggered by the southeastward-propagating (OKJ) wave train that produced a deep cyclonic circulation and a strong convective activity in the focus area. The link of wave forcing and deep convection was made solely because of a strong upper-level divergence in the focus area.
Westerly Wind Bursts and Their Relationship with Intraseasonal Variations and ENSO. Part II: Energetics over the Western and Central Pacific
Authors: Seiki Ayako , Takayabu Yukari N. 
Published: October 2007

Abstract
The mechanism of synoptic-scale eddy development in the generation of westerly wind bursts (WWBs) over the western–central Pacific, and their relationship with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), were examined. In the WWB occurrences, barotropic structures of equatorial eddy westerlies with cyclonic disturbances were found from the surface to the upper troposphere. The dominant contributions to substantial eddy kinetic energy (EKE) were the barotropic energy conversion (KmKe) in the lower and middle tropospheres and the conversion from eddy available potential energy (PeKe) in the upper troposphere. Low-frequency environmental westerlies centered near the equator preceded strong zonal convergence and meridional shear, resulting in the substantial KmKe. The activation of synoptic convection also contributed to an increase in EKE through PeKe. These energies were redistributed to the lower-equatorial troposphere through energy flux convergence (GKe). These results showed that environmental fields contribute to the EKE increase near the equator and are important factors in WWB occurrences. Next, eddy growth was compared under different phases of MJO and ENSO. The MJO westerly phases of strong MJO events were classified into two groups, in terms of ENSO phases. Higher EKE values were found over the equatorial central Pacific in the WWB–ENSO correlated (pre–El Niño) periods. The energetics during these periods comported with those of the WWB generations. In the uncorrelated periods, the enhancement of eddy disturbances occurred far from the equator near the Philippines, where the activities of the easterly wave disturbances are well known. It is noteworthy that the enhanced region of the disturbances in the pre–El Niño periods coincided with the vicinity of large-scale MJO convection. It is suggested that coincidence corresponds with an enhancement of the internal disturbances embedded in the MJO, which is found only when the environmental conditions are favorable in association with ENSO.
Retrospective comparison of the original and revised McDonald criteria in a general neurology practice in Ireland
Authors: McHugh J.C. , Galvin P.L. , Murphy R.P. 
Published: October 2007

Background The McDonald criteria were introduced in 2001 as guidelines to facilitate early and accurate diagnosis of multiple sclerosis (MS). They were revised in 2005. Although validated in a number of research-focused clinical centres, their adequacy and utility in the general neurology setting is less certain. Objective In this study, we assessed new diagnoses of MS in our practice for compliance with both the original and the revised criteria. Methods We retrospectively identified new diagnoses of MS from 2001. Clinical notes and imaging were evaluated for compliance with McDonald criteria. Results Sixty-two patients were included: 53 with `practice-definite' and nine with `practice-possible' diagnoses of MS. At the time of diagnosis, 47% of the `practice-definite' group fulfilled the 2001 criteria and 49% the revised criteria. Among patients not satisfying the criteria at time of diagnosis, 21% went on to fulfil the McDonald criteria over the 23-month follow-up. Conclusions There is a considerable gap between the clinical diagnosis of MS in a general neurology setting and compliance with the McDonald criteria. Failure to perform follow-up MRI on patients with clinically isolated syndromes is a sizeable factor in this diagnostic-gap and needs to be improved. In this setting, practical differences between the original and revised criteria appear to be small.
Peripheral blood leukocyte NO production and oxidative stress in multiple sclerosis
Authors: Koch Marcus , Mostert Jop , Arutjunyan Alexander , Stepanov Michael , Teelken Albert , Heersema Dorothea , De Keyser Jacques 
Published: October 2007

Background The reason for increased peripheral blood leukocyte (PBL) nitric oxide (NO) production in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) is unknown. Objective To investigate whether PBL NO production is related to measures of oxidative stress. Methods PBL nitrite, diene conjugates (DC, a measure of undergone oxidative stress), antiradical activity (ARA) and antioxidant acitvity (AOA) were measured in 35 healthy control persons and 80 patients with MS. We investigated the correlation of these measures with a partial correlation analysis, with age as the control variable. Results There was a significant correlation in both MS patients and healthy control persons between PBL nitrite levels and PBL DC, ARA and AOA. The correlations were stronger in healthy control persons. An analysis by disease subtype showed that the correlations were present in patients with relapsing—remitting and secondary progressive MS, but absent in primary progressive MS. Conclusions PBL nitrite levels and measures of oxidative stress are closely related in MS-patients as well as in healthy control persons. Increased serum NO levels in MS may be the result of a physiologic reaction to overall oxidative stress. The differences in the strength of correlation between different disease subtypes may reflect differences in leukocyte biology. Multiple Sclerosis 2008; 14: 159—165. http://msj.sagepub.com
Robot-assisted gait training in multiple sclerosis: a pilot randomized trial
Authors: Beer S. , Aschbacher B. , Manoglou D. , Gamper E. , Kool J. , Kesselring J. 
Published: October 2007

Objective To evaluate feasibility and perform an explanatory analysis of the efficacy of robot-assisted gait training (RAGT) in MS patients with severe walking disabilities (Expanded Disability Status Scale [EDSS] 6.0—7.5) in a pilot trial.Methods Prospective, randomized, controlled clinical trial comparing RAGT with conventional walking training (CWT) in a group of stable MS patients ( n = 35) during an inpatient rehabilitation stay, 15 sessions over three weeks. All patients participated additionally in a multimodal rehabilitation program. The primary outcome measure was walking velocity and secondary measures were 6-minwalking distance, stride length and knee-extensor strength. All tests were performed by an external blinded assessor at baseline after three weeks and at follow-up after six months. Additionally, Extended Barthel Index (EBI) at entry and discharge was assessed (not blinded), and acceptance/convenience of RAGT rated by patients (Visual Analogue Scale [VAS]) was recorded.Results Nineteen patients were randomly allocated to RAGT and 16 patients to CWT. Groups were comparable at baseline. There were 5 drop-outs (2 related directly to treatment) in the RAGT group and 1 in the CWT group, leaving 14 RAGT patients and 15 CWT patients for final analysis. Acceptance and convenience of RAGT as rated by patients were high. Effect sizes were moderate to large, although not significant, for walking velocity (0.700, 95% CI -0.089 to 1.489), walking distance (0.401, 95% CI - 0.370 to 1.172) and knee-extensor strength (right: 1.105, 95% CI 0.278 to 1.932, left 0.650, 95% CI -0.135 to 1.436) favouring RAGT. Prepost within-group analysis revealed an increase of walking velocity, walking distance and knee-extensor strength in the RAGT group, whereas in CWT group only walking velocity was improved. In both groups outcome values returned to baseline at follow-up after six months ( n = 23).Conclusions Robot-assisted gait training is feasible and may be an effective therapeutic option in MS patients with severe walking disabilities. Effect size calculation and prepost analysis suggest a higher benefit on walking velocity and knee-extensor strength by RAGT compared to CWT. Due to several limitations, however, our results should be regarded as preliminary. Post hoc power calculation showed that two groups of 106 patients are needed to demonstrate a significant moderate effect size of 0.4 after three weeks of RAGT. Thus, further studies with a larger number of patients are needed to investigate the impact of this new treatment option in MS patients. Multiple Sclerosis 2008; 14: 231—236. http://msj.sagepub.com