bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Toutes voiles dehors ! Perspectives 1999-2000 pour l'économie française
Authors:   Division économie française,   Département analyse et prévision de l'OFCE
Published: October 2008

La prévision de croissance de l'OFCE est de 2,6 % pour l'année 1999 et de 3,5 % pour l'année 2000. L'industrie française a subi en fin d'année 1998 et en début d'année 1999 un net ralentissement causé par la crise asiatique et les conséquences indirectes de celle-ci sur l'Allemagne et l'Italie. Cependant, la consommation des ménages reste dynamique, relativement aux autres composantes de la demande, portée par une croissance forte du revenu et soutenue par la décrue du chômage et un emploi en forte progression. La deuxième partie de l'année 1999 est marquée par le rebond de l'industrie qui réagit à une demande étrangère moins déprimée et qui rattrape son retard de stockage et d'investissement d'autant que la reprise des prix des matières premières ne justifie plus d'attentisme.
Ainsi, sur la lancée de la reprise à la fin 1999, la croissance pour l'année 2000 est supérieure à la croissance potentielle, sans que des tensions particulières soient à craindre. La croissance se réalise sans mouvement de l'inflation, hors ceux apportés par la remontée du prix du pétrole. Les politiques budgétaires et monétaires ont un impact pratiquement neutre et n'obèrent pas ce schéma de reprise. Par ailleurs, la politique de l'emploi du gouvernement apporte une amélioration supplémentaire sur le marché du travail. Le chômage se réduit et atteint à la fin de l'année 2000 10,4 % de la population active.
Débat sur les perspectives
Authors: Fitoussi Jean-Paul , Boussemart Jean-Michel , Maarek  , Fayolle Jacky , Passet Olivier , Rifflart Christine , Sigogne Philippe , Sterdyniak Henri , Timbeau Xavier ,   Département analyse et prévision de l'OFCE
Published: October 2008

Les prévisions occupent une place particulière dans le débat public en économie. Elles sont généralement considérées comme des prédictions, qualifiées fréquemment d'optimistes ou de pessimistes, comme si elles dépendaient de l'humeur des équipes qui les réalisent. Certes, en un sens, la prévision est un art tant elle dépend des signes précurseurs que nous livre le présent, de l'interprétation des évolutions en cours, de la capacité des économistes de sélectionner les informations pertinentes parmi celles, multiples, dont l'intérêt n'est qu'anecdotique. Mais elle est surtout une science puisqu'elle consiste à déduire des informations dont on dispose sur le présent une vision de l'avenir. Elle ne peut être formulée en dehors d'un cadre général d'interprétation, c'est-à-dire d'une théorie qui met en relation les informations que l'on privilégie et les variables que l'on cherche à prévoir.
Parmi ces informations, certaines, cruciales, ne sont pas vraiment disponibles car, pour l'essentiel, elles dépendent de décisions à venir et qu'il n'existe pas vraiment de théorie permettant de déduire des données existantes ce que seront ces décisions. Il faut donc formuler des hypothèses alternatives et retenir celles qui nous paraissent les plus vraisemblables. Dès lors, les erreurs de prévision peuvent avoir au moins trois origines : une insuffisance d'information sur le présent, une mauvaise spécification théorique, la non réalisation de certaines hypothèses. De surcroît, il existe une incertitude irréductible au sens ou certains événements sont imprévisibles, alors même que leur conséquence sur l'activité économique est déterminante. Voilà pourquoi les chiffres associés à une prévision sont éminemment fragiles, qu'ils doivent être considérés comme conditionnels aux hypothèses que l'on formule, aux données dont on dispose et au cadre théorique dans lequel on raisonne.
Il m'a donc semblé nécessaire que les prévisions réalisées par l'OFCE soient publiées en même temps qu'un débat autour de ces prévisions. Cela offre le double avantage de rendre explicite le doute inhérent à tout exercice de prévision pour les raisons déjà exposées, et de participer au pluralisme nécessaire à l'indépendance et au sérieux des études économiques. Une prévision, pour rigoureuse qu'elle soit, n'est pas un exercice mécanique au terme duquel la vérité serait révélée, mais une « histoire » raisonnée du futur délivrant des résultats incertains. Il est utile d'en comprendre d'emblée les limites, pour ne point s'en servir comme d'un argument d'autorité, à l'instar de ce qui est trop fréquemment le cas.
Jean-Paul FITOUSSI
MOSAÏQUE révélé : recueil de variantes et de simulations du modèle MOSAÏQUE
Authors: Chauvin Valérie , Heyer Eric , Timbeau Xavier 
Published: October 2008

L'OFCE a beaucoup utilisé le modèle MOSAÏQUE, durant les quinze années de son existence comme outil pour traiter des questions de politique économique et pour tenter de prévoir, plusieurs fois par année, le futur de Véconomie française. Cette représentation trimestrielle de Véconomie française est dans la lignée des grands modèles économétriques français.
La mise en évidence des propriétés variantielles du modèle et des indications quantitatives sur la transmission des chocs dans l'économie devrait faciliter la tâche des utilisateurs potentiels de modèles macroéconomiques français alors que les simulations fournissent des ordres de grandeur utiles pour l'analyse de la conjoncture et des politiques économiques.
La jeunesse dans quatre pays d'Europe.
Authors:   Cellule de sociologie de l'OFCE
Published: October 2008

In advanced industrialized countries, youth is being constituted in a age category intermediate between schooling and stable professional and family life. Although this trend is common to ail countries, there is a considerable diversity in the way in which youth is lived in each country. The English young people leave early the family to be established in couple and some to have children. With the difference of the French, they do not trust their studies to find an employment, they seek to be engaged as soon as possible. The French leave the family to be established individually and wait the end of their youth to be established in stable couple; while the Italians remain in their parents very tardily and only leave them to marry and to have a child. The system of German dual training is today in great difficulty, because of the transformations of the productive systems.
JEL Code : J12
Tous ensemble ?
Authors:   Département analyse et prévision de l'OFCE, Sterdyniak Henri , Baudchon Hélène , Chagny Odile , Latreille Thierry , Mathieu Catherine , Passet Olivier , Rifflart Christine , Sensoli Claire , Veroni Paola , Péléraux Hervé , Serranito Francisco 
Published: October 2008

All together ?
Forecast for the world economy in 2000 and 2001
Division economie internationale
Activity is expected to expand rapidly in many parts of the world economy (4,2 % in 2000 and 3,9 % in 2001), except in Japan where an excess of capacity still impediments growth. Asian emerging economies are growing rapidly again, even if structural problems remain. Activity is expanding in Latin America and in Central and Eastern Europe. Growth is expected to remain buoyant in the US in 2000 before softly decelerating. In the Euro Area output is sustained by low interest rates, slightly expansionary fiscal policies, a weakened Euro and improved corporate profitability. Monetary policies will be tightened to moderate US and European output growth. Oil priees are expected to decline from $30 a barrel in early 2000 to $20 in 2001. This will ease world inflationary pressures. The major threat to world growth remains a collapse of stocks markets.
JEL code : F 01
L'État pare-chocs. Perspectives 2000-2001 pour l'économie française
Authors:   Division économie française, Chauvin Valérie , Dupont Gaël , Heyer Eric , Timbeau Xavier , Charpin Françoise , Péléraux Hervé 
Published: October 2008

The State, as a shock absorber
Forecast for the French economy in 2000 and 2001
Division Economie Francaise
In 2000, the raise in oil price represented a levy on the GDP of around 0,5 %. Indirect taxes were lowered to alleviate the inflationary consequences. So the virtuous dynamics experienced in Europe since 1997 wouldn't be stopped. The GDP would grow by 3,4 % in 2000 and 3,7 % in 2001. Growth and reduction of working time would stimulate employment. The household purchasing power would sustain consumption. More over, the raise in imported goods priees hasn't deteriorate corporate margins thanks to controlled wage costs. Firms should go on investing, thus stabilising the capacity utilisation rate. By the end of 2001, French economy should grow at its potential pace. Growth would allow for tax cuts : for the first time since 1992, tax would diminish as a percentage of GDP.
JEL code : F 01
Une pendeloque en cuivre natif de Ramad
Authors: France-Lanord Albert , De Contenson H. 
Published: October 2008

A pendant, discovered in 1968 at Tell Ramad in Level I, was studied by macroscopic and metallographic means (Laboratoire d'archéologie des métaux, Jarville, Meurthe et Moselle). Investigations show a native copper nugget with transversal perforation ; inside the perforation were remains of a thick thread made of twisted fibre taken from a vegetal similar to nettle or jute. Authors assume that the copper might have come from Ergani in Anatolia and that this metal might have followed the same road as obsidian. This metal
pendant is unique on a pre-pottery site in Syro-Palestine.
Méthodes d'étude de l'origine des matériaux ayant servi à la confection de briques et de céramiques dans les sites de Suse et de Djaffarabad (Khuzistan, Iran)
Authors: Ruben Philippe , Trichet Jean 
Published: October 2008

Le site de Suse et de ses environs a fourni aux artisans qui s'y sont succédés une source abondante de matériaux argilo-limoneux qu'ils ont utilisés pour la fabrication de briques et de céramiques. Des méthodes pédologiques et sédimentologiques simples ont permis de reconnaître dans la couverture sédimentaire de la plaine trois stocks distincts de matériaux que les artisans ont pu, et su, exploiter à des fins de fabrication précises. On a pu montrer: (1) que la matière première des briques a été prélevée très localement, au droit du site même de fabrication; (2) que l'exploitation était limitée aux horizons les plus superficiels du sol ; (3) que les horizons superficiels et profonds de certains profils avaient été reconnus, à Djaffarabad, et utilisés séparément pour confectionner des briques de couleurs différentes.
L'utilisation de ces types d'analyses pour la recherche de sources de matière première a été discutée. Elle suppose que soit portée une grande attention aux processus géochimiques et pédologiques susceptibles d'avoir altéré la composition de la matière première tant au cours du traitement artisanal de fabrication de celle-ci que depuis son enfouissement dans les couches archéologiques. Elle montre qu'une expérience simple en pédologie et en géochimie peut permettre à l'archéologue de garantir toute la signification des prélèvements qu'il effectue dans le but de reconstituer la source de la matière d'un objet archéologique à partir d'analyses chimiques de celui-ci.
Pièces pathologiques de la "nécropole" moustérienne de Qafzeh
Authors: Dastugue J. 
Published: October 2008

Owing to the numerous post mortem alterations which have affected the bones from Qafzeh, only lesions with a clear pathological origin are presented in the present study .
1. The left foot of the skeleton H.8 was affected by a fracture of calcaneus. The fracture is typical, located in the middle of the bone with flattening of the Böhler's angle. Moreover, the foot bones bear additional lesions with suggest that the trauma was followed by retraction of the triceps surae causing hyperextension of the foot and consequent equine (stepping) gait.
2. The right foot of the skeleton H.9 was affected by hallux valgus ; this is not the first case of such pathology to be found by the author among prehistoric populations.
3. The skull of the child's skeleton H.I3 bears a frontal lesion consisting of a trough-like groove with a sub-triangular hole through its upper extremity. This lesion was caused either by an intentioned blow or by a hard and narrow object (for instance, a stone falling on the skull).
Despite the severity of such a wound, the skull displays healing marks which show that the child survived the trauma.
Wadi Sayakh - A Geometric Kebaran Site in Southern Sinai
Authors: Bar-Yosef Ofer , Killebrew Ann 
Published: October 2008

Wadi Sayakh est un petit site Kébarien géométrique situé près du Wadi Feiran dans le Sinaï méridional. Sur le plan archéologique un foyer et une dépression peu profonde remplie de cendres ont été découverts.
L'industrie lithique est dominée par des trapèze-rectangles semblables par leurs dimensions et par leur manufacture à ceux d'autres sites du Kébarien géométrique au Levant. Les liens de Wadi Sayakh avec la région Levantine se traduisent aussi par la présence de quelques coquilles de la Méditerranée.
Remarques sur la Damascène et le Levant Sud au Néolithique
Authors: Contenson Henri De 
Published: October 2008

Aswad appears from the PPNA onwards as a permanent settlement practizing full fledged agriculture. The introduction of Sheep breeding at Ghoraife PPNB does not seem linked with any new population groups. Ceramic Neolithic appears characterized by différenciation between several local contemporaneous patterns.
Key-words : Syria, Aswad, PPNA, PPNB, agriculture.
Hacinebi Metal Production and Exchange
Authors: Özbal Hadi , Adriaens Annemie Mieke , Earl Bryan 
Published: October 2008

Excavations from the pre-Uruk levels at Hacinebi yielded a complete repertoire of archaeometallurgical finds including ores, slags, crucible fragments with accretions, molds, a tuyere, metal artifacts, as well as a multi-furnace metal workshop. The highly advanced metal technology at Hacinebi is in accordance with other Late Chalcolithic local Anatolian sites. Anatolian metals may have aroused Mesopotamian interest and the Uruk trade networks may have been established to obtain this new exotic material. At Hacinebi, where Mesopotamians were living among local inhabitants with a well-established metal smelting tradition, there is strong evidence for metal production.
Chemical and structural analyses of Hacinebi archaeometallurgical materials indicate that both oxide and sulfide ores were smelted. While excavations yielded no evidence for intentional alloying, experimentation with polymetallic ores is possible. The trace element distribution of Hacinebi metals, slags, crucible accretions and prills is consistent with ores from known sources in southeastern Turkey. Hacinebi appears to be a copper production and export center. While molds suggest that copper was cast into small ingots for export after smelting and refining, the intensive metal production workshop indicates that metallurgical production was practiced as a specialized craft.
Dental Evidence for Dietary Practices in the Chalcolithic Period : The Findings from a Burial Cave in Peqi'in (Northern Israel)
Authors: Lev-Tov Netta , Gopher Avi , Smith Philip E. L. 
Published: October 2008

Archaeological data mark the southern Levantine Chalcolithic as a period of great change at the economic and socio-political levels. At the economic level these include intensive cereal cultivation, the cultivation of fruit trees and the utilization of secondary animal products. At the socio-political level the changes include a higher level of socio-political complexity. The analysis of the human dentition has long been used by anthropologists as a tool for reconstructing life ways of past populations. When analyzed by age and social group, pathological, and other conditions of the dentition, provide valuable clues to dietary practices, cultural habits and subsistence strategies.
This study examines the dentition from 1 00 mandibles found at the Chalcolithic burial cave in Peqi 'in (northern Israel), in order to shed light on some dietary practices and the general health of this population in relation to the economic and socio-political changes that occurred during this time.
The results showed a high frequency ofhypoplasia (over 95 % in canines) pointing to the prevalence of physiological stress during infancy and childhood. Molar wear rate was rapid and oblique in pattern indicating an abrasive diet. The caries frequency for the M2 andM3 was 19.3 %, and with ante mortem tooth loss and abscessing points to a heavy reliance on cereals. The high frequency of hypoplasia in combination with other dental pathologies may be associated with a diet low in nutritional value and/or disease. The pattern of disease appeared to be similar in all individuals within the same age group, indicating that the population of Peqi 'in shared a similar life experience in that no one group or individual was more socially buffered from disease or enjoyed differential access to nutritional resources.
L'exploitation de coquillages sur le site de RJ2 à Ra's al-Jinz (Sultanat d'Oman, Néolithique et Âge du Bronze)
Authors: Martin Chloé , Cleuziou S. 
Published: October 2008

The site ofRJ2 is located near the sea. It was occupied during the IVth millennium ВС (Neolithic) and during the Bronze Age, between 2 500 and 2 000 ВС (Umm an-Nar culture). Archaeozoological studies showed that fishes were widely consumed (66. 6 % of the NR) as well as the green tortoises (27.4 % of the NR). In addition to bone remains, it is necessary to add the shell. They indicate a consumption of the maritime molluscs by these populations. They consist mainly of mussels (Perna picta) but also Muricidae (Purpura Panama, Thaidinae, Hexaplex kuesterianus) and oysters ('Saccostrea cucculata). All these species live in rocky environment. The collection of these shells had to he made near the site, along the accessible rocky cliffs during the low tide.
During the IVth millennium ВС (Phase I), shell collection targeted Perna picta and the species of the family of Thaidinae. It does not seem, to have had a big impact on the environment. During the Umm an-Nar period, two major phases (Phase 2 and 3) can be distinguished. Phase 2 indicates a collection targeted on Perna picta with sometimes a collection on the species of the family of Thaidinae. During the phase 3, Perna picta is always the main species but the Thaidinae were replaced by Hexaplex kuesterianus and Saccostrea cucculata. The reasons of this change of species can be of an ecological order or from human exploitation (overexploitation or cultural phenomenon). In conclusion, during the IVth millennium ВС, shellfish collection was opportunistic and unspecialised, but during the Bronze Age it became targeted and specialised, on the mussel species Perna picta.
Mousterian fauna from Dederiyeh Cave and comparisons with Fauna from Umm El Tlel and Douara Cave
Authors: Griggo Christophe 
Published: October 2008

Currently, Dederiyeh Cave (in northwest Syria) is one of the key sites in the Middle East for better understanding Neanderthal behaviour. The stratigraphie sequence, based on excavations carried out to date, and the large quantity of faunal remains recovered make palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic reconstructions possible. Comparisons with assemblages recovered from the sites of Umm El Tlel and Douara Cave (central Syria) illustrate the significant aptitude of Neanderthals for environmental adaptation.
Taphonomic and archaeozoological analyses show that humans alone are responsible for the bone accumulation in Dederiyeh Cave. Middle-sized mammals (wild goat, red deer, fallow deer and gazelle) were hunted by Neanderthals and carried whole into the cave. Large species, specifically wild ox and rhinoceros, are represented in Dederiyeh Cave by teeth, skull fragments and phalanges, and appear to have been scavenged.
Faunal studies carried out on collections from Dederiyeh Cave, Umm el Tlel and Douara Cave indicate elaborate behaviour and social organization for different groups present in Syria during the Middle Palaeolithic period.
Diderot chercheur : du nouveau sur les emprunts faits par Diderot à la Bibliothèque royale entre 1775 et 1782
Authors: Strugnell Anthony 
Published: October 2008

Anthony Strugnell: New Information on Diderot's Borrowings from the Bibliothèque Royale, 1775-82.
J. Proust's study of Diderot's borrowings from the Bibliothèque Royale in 1768-75 could not go any further due to the impossibility of deciphering the codes used in the registers. Thanks to new research, it has been possible to identify 22 new titles borrowed between 1775 and 1782. They correspond to work on the Plan d'une université..., the Éléments de physiologie, the Principes de politique des souverains, contributions to the 3rd édition of the Histoire des Deux Indes concerning ecclesiastical history, and his preparations for a complète edition of his works. However, a last group of medical works, borrowed in 1782, cannot be linked to any particular project and is unexplained.
Recherches nouvelles sur l'identification des volumes de la bibliothèque de Diderot
Authors: Albina Larissa L. , Strugnell Anthony 
Published: October 2008

Larissa L. Albina and Anthony R. Strugnell : New Research on the Identification of Diderot's Books.
Following earlier research begun by A. Wilson and V.S. Lioublinski, a new study of the volumes in the Leningrad Library from the foreign section of the Ermitage Imperial Library has made it possible to establish criteria for identifying those belonging to Diderot. These criteria concern the organisation of the library, the works referred to in Diderot's writings and marks in the books themselves (including on occasion a few notes or a dedication by the author to Diderot) . As a result, the authors have drawn up a list of about eighty volumes (including some previously listed as belonging to Voltaire's library) which can be more or less certainly identified as having belonged to Diderot.
«Le coucou, le rossignol et l'âne», paradoxe ou vérité?
Authors: Morin Robert 
Published: October 2008

Robert Morin: « The cuckoo, the nightingale and the ass » — Paradox or Truth?
Diderot's account, in a letter to Sophie, of a dispute between Grimm and Le Roy concerning the respective merits of genius and method, resolved by Galiani's parable of the cuckoo, the nightingale and the ass, can be interpreted in various ways. The author here insists on the importance in Diderot's thought of structure which is necessary for all creation.
L'unité des peuples par la connaissance : une utopie des Lumières
Authors: Chouillet Jacques 
Published: October 2008

Jacques Chouillet: Unity through Knowledge: an Enlightenment Utopia.
This article, originally the conclusion to the Lattakiah Conference on Orient and Enlightenment in 1986, was inspired by the 1984 UNESCO conference and the divergent interpretations made by scholars from the North and the South. Unlike Breughel's painting of the Towel of Babel, the portico of hypotheses in the Bijoux indiscrets proclaims the possibility of mankind's unity through knowledge, which is the aim of the Encyclopédie — to unify by enlightening. The tension between specific and general rules is seen particularly in Diderot's discussion of natural law, which proclaims the primacy of the universal. This does not mean ignoring specific differences, but on the contrary studying them to achieve universal understanding.