bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
A Linear Model Approach to Time and Cost Analysis
Authors: Williams W. H. 
Published: November 2008

Systems analyses frequently require estimates of the average time that it takes to perform repetitive tasks. These time estimates may be easy to obtain; for example, if one man is performing a single operation, then a simple division of his total working time by the frequency of the task repetition, gives an estimate of the average performance time. However, in many instances, work consolidation requires that individuals be called upon to perform several different operations. For example, crews may be sent into the field to carry out a number of different tasks, for which the relative rate of occurrence may change from day to day. This introduction of multiple operations implies that the required separate time estimates can no longer be obtained by a simple division. This paper discusses linear model estimation of the average time taken to perform specific tasks; the estimation is possible even when a number of different tasks are performed by an individual or group. The models are based on the conceptual relation that the time taken to perform a task multiplied by the rate of occurrence in the considered time period, and summed over all possible tasks, should equal the total time taken by all tasks. Estimation is also possible when direct observations are difficult to obtain (as in stopwatch procedures) because the proposed models do not require direct time observations but rather utilize linear combinations of the individual time parameters. An actual application is discussed.
A Utility Function Derived from a Survival Game
Authors: Borch Karl 
Published: November 2008

The starting point of the paper is a firm engaged in a risky business. It is assumed that the firm's gain in each operating period is a stochastic variable. It is further assumed that these stochastic variables are independent and identically distributed. If the capital of the firm becomes negative, the firm is ruined, and must go out of business. The optimal dividend policy is defined as the policy which will maximize the expected discounted value of the dividends paid before ruin occurs. It is then shown that the solution of the dividend problem gives the utility function, which will govern the firm's decisions under uncertainty. From this result it appears that a number of decisions which seem irrational when studied in isolation, become perfectly rational when analysed in their proper dynamic setting.
A Minimum Risk Manpower Scheduling Technique
Authors: Jewett Roger F. 
Published: November 2008

An approach to decision making under uncertainty is presented and its application to manpower scheduling discussed. The Minimum Risk technique yields an optimum series of manpower levels over a time interval in which the workload (manpower required for each period) is not known. It is assumed that the possible workloads can be described, defined by a finite set of mutually exclusive manpower requirements, and their probabilities can be estimated. Each possible workload is examined and the risk of a particular manpower level is related to the added (transition) cost of performing whatever workload occurs, given this manpower level. The subject technique represents a decision-making tool which has been applied to engineering and scientific personnel planning for over one year. Accordingly, some of the operational aspects of the method are discussed. Linear cost functions and subjective probabilities are used and some practical characteristics of such a formulation are also described.
Subjective Time Estimates in Critical Path Planning—A Preliminary Analysis
Authors: King William R. , Wilson Talmadge A. 
Published: November 2008

A historical analysis of activity time estimates made by a number of contractors on a large-scale systems development project is conducted using two basic hypotheses. (1) Pre-activity time estimating accuracy improves as the beginning date of the activity approaches. (2) Time estimates made during the progress of an activity improve in relative accuracy as the completion date of the activity approaches. These hypotheses are tested and several models for adjusting time estimates on the basis of the estimator's past history are developed and tested. The results are not proposed to be definitive—but rather, preliminary ones which should serve to demonstrate the feasibility of the basic approach.
Cluster Analysis in Test Market Selection
Authors: Green Paul E. , Frank Ronald E. , Robinson Patrick J. 
Published: November 2008

Selection of “matched” areas for test marketing is an important undertaking if reliable comparisons among markets are to be made. This usually has been done on a rather arbitrary basis, largely because of the large number of market characteristics on which markets can be viewed as similar or different. The authors suggest a numerical procedure—cluster analysis—for matching prospective test markets on the basis of a large variety of characteristics which could affect test marketing results. In this way, markets can be pre-selected so as to reduce undesired variability among test areas.
An Algorithm for Solving Job Sequencing Problems
Authors: Presby J. T. , Wolfson M. L. 
Published: November 2008

The technique described in this paper was devised for sequencing jobs on individual machines having characteristics of: (1) high job changeover costs; (2) small backlogs (10-20 jobs); (3) occasional “rush” orders. The algorithm starts with four-job sequences and from these constructs five-job sequences; from the five-job sequences, six-job sequences are constructed, and so on. At each stage, a large fraction of sequences are eliminated from further consideration. This elimination process makes the computation feasible because the number of all possible sequences becomes unmanageably large, even for small problems. The technique always provides a minimum cost sequence. It also permits determination of optimum sequences of backlog sub-sets; thus, rush orders can be accommodated and anticipated changes in the job backlog can be recognized.
The Dynamic Synthesis Theory of Motivation
Authors: Gunn Bruce 
Published: November 2008

An interdisciplinary perspective of employee motivation is presented, based on the premise that the principles of natural science provide the fundamental basis for analogizing the operational similarities of physical and social productive systems. This concept is applied to motivation by observing that all productive systems—whether physical, organic or social—are input-output systems. The lowest common denominators in these systems are energy and mass. Le Chatelier's principle provides the universal environment for motivation. Thus, the transformation of energy in a given productive system represents the essence of motivation. The usefulness of analogizing the process of energy transformation in these two seemingly diverse systems can be seen by tracing the essential factors leading to efficient energy expenditure is physical systems and applying similar strategies to energy transformation in social system. Such an approach will provide the manager with a concrete frame of reference from which to draw plausible remedies in solving the innumerable problems of efficient motivation and utilization of employee energies.
Demon Mark II: Extremal Equations Solution & Approximation
Authors: Charnes A. , Cooper W. W. , Devoe J. K. , Learner D. B. 
Published: November 2008

This paper develops a new method for the solution of DEMON-type functional equations. It is shown how the latter can be reduced to solution of a separated system of simpler equations which, for discrete distributions, can be solved by linear programming methods. The reduction also permits general characteristics of the solutions to be inferred. Additionally, methods of approximation and bounding are developed and interpreted for the general case. Because of the importance accorded to log-normal distributions for the new-product marketing problem, further details and developments are undertaken with reference to this class of distributions and then illustrated by reference to the single-parameter case.
A Systems Study of Policy Formulation in a Vertically-Integrated Firm
Authors: Roberts Edward B. , Abrams Dan I. , Weil Henry B. 
Published: November 2008

Vertically-integrated companies often provide unusual opportunities for conflicts among organizational performance measures, especially as the vertical interdependency of product flow interacts with organisational separation of profit objectives. The resulting problems and their potential resolution by policy reformulation are discussed in this paper for the case of a large manufacturer-retailer of perishable food products. The methods of Industrial Dynamics constitute the systems analysis approach employed in the described study. Emphasis is placed upon the closed-loop feedback systems that interrelate the company's divisions and that provide the conceptual basis for development of a company simulation model. Even without computer testing of the simulation model, analysis of the feedback systems structure can be used in this case to highlight the general conflict between the company's sales and profit objectives. Extensive computer simulation of the company model is utilised to test a variety of areas of possible policy change, including among others transfer pricing, market stimulation, budgeting, and performance measurement. A consistent finding from the simulations was that several sources of intensified organizational pressure (including negotiated transfer prices and ambitious budgets) contributed importantly to company growth. Although the model formulation and simulation results were accepted as valid by company managers, little implementation of the recommended policy changes has yet occurred. Instead the principal benefits in the short run are seen as largely educational in nature, with new managerial perspectives the key outcome. This result appears reasonable and possibly necessary if management is to be educated effectively for later acceptance of policy change recommendations based on sophisticated management science approaches.
The Engineering and Management of an Effective System
Authors: Feigenbaum Donald S. 
Published: November 2008

Five to ten years ago, the systems approach was thought to mean full-scale factory automation or fully computerized information flow. Experience has shown that a more useful concept is of systems as integrated man-machine-information structures which provide economic control over technical and organizational complexity. The systems engineering process includes the six phases of analysis; programming; design; equipment manufacture and software programs; installation and check-out; and service. The greatest progress has been made in the work of systems analysis, which has benefitted from recent developments in modelling and simulation techniques. A new role is evolving for the manager himself in systems design and systems operation. This includes his establishment of a mechanism for the creation, integration and maintenance of enterprise-wide systems. It is probable that more and more of the operational activities of the firm will be analyzed, and then engineered as systems to obtain the many economic and other benefits.
The I Days of Christmas: A Model for Competitive Advertising Over An Intensive Campaign
Authors: Bell Colin E. 
Published: November 2008

During a pre-Christmas campaign in which daily sales are generally increasing, it is important to achieve a proper balance in advertising allocation between the final days of heavy sales and the earlier days of the campaign when sales are lighter but advertising might affect sales farther into the future. This paper presents a model of such a problem for two competing firms, an algorithm for solution of the model, numerical examples, and a proof of the algorithm. An equilibrium solution is found in which each firm applies the same proportioning vector to distribute its total advertising budget over the N days.
An Inverse Warehousing Problem for Imperfect Markets
Authors: Bell Duean 
Published: November 2008

This paper focuses upon the problem of a monopolist who has no control over the rate of arrivals into inventory and who ships his product to distant markets where the price per unit is a randomly shifting inverse function of the quantity shipped. It is assumed that the firm seeks to minimize its expected losses over a many-period horizon where the quantity shipped during any period is subject to last minute reconsideration. Given certain assumptions about the cost and revenue functions and the level of inventory, it will be shown that the optimal shipping quantity is a linear function of the storage level and that the solution of the many-period nonstationary problem can be expressed in closed form.
Optimal Operations & Investments of the Firm
Authors: Thompson Russell G. , George Melvin D. 
Published: November 2008

In this paper, a dynamic continuous time model of the firm, encompassing operations and investments, is formulated as an optimal control problem in an activity analysis context. In the model, the objective of the firm is to maximize, subject to various constraints, the discounted value of operating profits less the costs of new capacity and the interest on borrowed funds (or plus the interest on savings) over a fixed decision-making interval plus the discounted value of capacity at the end of the period. The state variables are capacity and debt, and the controls are scale of operation and rate of purchase of new capacity; the final capacity and debt are control parameters. There are several inequality constraints. Using results in control theory, the optimal controls are determined for the case the rate of production is linear in the scale variable, the growth of capacity is linear in the rate of purchase of new capacity and the attrition of capacity is linear in the amount of capacity. Extensions of the model are made to include multiple processes.
Information Retrieval for Media Planning
Authors: Kwerel Seymour M. 
Published: November 2008

A critical problem, continually faced by managers in developing “effective” resource allocation plans, is that only limited partial information is available about the system under consideration on which to base these plans. This is particularly true in planning involving the limited information typically available on the relevant behavior and characteristics of large human populations. This paper develops the insight that partial information—which at first scrutiny appears to contain only severely limited information about the system—in many important cases actually contains (or stores) a great deal of the relevant total system information needed for planning (or control). This insight leads to powerful methods-for retrieving the needed information about the behavior and characteristics of the total system from the information contained in the partial information data. In the present paper, we illustrate these information retrieval methods by developing and applying them to partially specified media audience exposure systems to retrieve certain critical total system information needed for media planning. More specifically, partial information on the audience of a combination of advertising media vehicles consisting of only two information quantities—the sum of the individual audiences, and the sum of the audiences of all pairs of media vehicles in the combination—is shown, in fact, to contain a significant amount of the information about the audience exposure pattern of the combination that is needed for media planning evaluation. Theory and methods are developed which retrieve, from these two quantities, operationally useful information on the unduplicated audience, the average exposure frequency, and the frequency distribution of audience exposure of the combination. The retrieval methods developed in this paper have been successfully applied to evaluating and developing “effective” media selection programs. These retrieval methods apply as well to management information systems involving marketing, demographic, socio-economic and related partially specified information systems in which individuals are classified in terms of the presence or absence of each of a large number of relevant attributes. In addition, these retrieval methods can be extended to retrieve additional information about the total system, where required, including the development of usefully precise single value estimates of the critical information quantities of the total system.
On a New Class of Combinatoric Optimizers for Multi-Product Single-Machine Scheduling
Authors: Kortanek K. O. , Maxwell W. L. 
Published: November 2008

Many people have proposed objective functions, or optimizers, which guide one to schedule a multi-product single stage production system. In this paper we present a whole new class of optimizers, or solution concepts, which generalizes most of the well-known optimizers to date. Our combinatoric formulations are related to a new class of solution concepts for n-person games developed by Charnes-Kortanek [Charnes, A., K. O. Kortanek. 1967. On a class of convex and non-archimedean solution concepts for n-person games. Technical Report No. 22, Department of Operations Research, Cornell University, and Systems Research Memo No. 172, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois, March.]. By constructing a combinatoric linear programming problem, where some of the variables are determined by an arbitrary set of permutations, we encompass classical optimizers in one formulation including such concepts as (1) minimizing maximum lateness or tardiness, (2) maximizing minimum lateness or tardiness, (3) minimizing mean lateness or flow time, and (4) random sequencing. More generally, we characterize a new class of optimizers as optimal solutions to specially constructed combinatoric programming problems, including optimizers which are integer in character.
Extensions of the Planning Horizon Theorem in the Dynamic Lot Size Model
Authors: Eppen Gary D. , Gould F. J. , Pashigian B. Peter 
Published: November 2008

This paper considers an N period production planning problem in which a sequence of known demands d1, d2,…, dN must be satisfied. The cost of production in period t consists of a setup cost Kt plus a marginal cost per unit ct. The cost of carrying a unit of inventory into period t is ht − 1. An optimal policy is a production plan that satisfies demand at minimum cost. The main results of the paper are a theorem that decreases the computational effort required to find optimal policies and a theorem that establishes the existence of planning horizons. The results of these two theorems are combined in a forward algorithm for the efficient solution of the problem.
Optimality of Myopic Inventory Policies for Several Substitute Products
Authors: Ignall Edward , Veinott Arthur F. 
Published: November 2008

Multiproduct inventory systems with proportional ordering costs and stochastic demands are studied. New conditions are obtained under which a myopic ordering policy (a policy of minimizing expected cost in the current period alone) is optimal for a sequence of periods for all initial inventory levels. An important one of these, the substitute property, holds when the myopic policy is such that increasing the initial inventory of one product does not increase the quantity ordered of any product. Conditions on the one period expected holding and shortage cost function, which are of independent interest in nonlinear programming, are shown to imply the substitute property. Applications of these conditions to models with storage or investment limitations and to a multiechelon model are given. Under backlogging the usual extension to a fixed delivery lag is obtained. Some non-stationary cases are also treated.
Does “Good Portfolio Management” Exist?
Authors: Simon Julian L. 
Published: November 2008

Using closed-end investment trusts as subject-matter, this paper explores this question: Are some portfolio managers “really” better than others? i.e., are there differences in performance among managers other than those differences due to chance? It also throws some light on whether investors, in the aggregate, act rationally upon the knowledge of performance that is reasonably available to them in the pricing of securities. The results of the study suggest that there is some consistency over time in a closed-end trust's relative success in portfolio management; success in any year is apparently not just a random occurrence, and hence some degree of “good” portfolio management of closed-end trusts seems to exist. (However, the lack of dependence from year to year calls this conclusion into question.) As is therefore rational, the price of the stock, as measured by the discount or premium at which it sells, is loosely related to the closed-end stock's success. The discount (premium) is therefore a better-than-chance prediction of the trust's success in the following year. Further research is called for to check the findings given here and to unravel some of the perplexities.
Mathematical Programming with Increasing Constraint Functions
Authors: Pierskalla William P. 
Published: November 2008

The mathematical programming problem—find a non-negative n-vector x which maximizes f(x) subject to the constraints gi(x) ≥ O, i = 1,…, m—is investigated where f(x) is assumed to be concave or pseudo-concave and the gi(x) are increasing functions. It is shown that under certain conditions on gi(x), the Kuhn-Tucker-Lagrange conditions are necessary and sufficient for the optimality of x*. It is also shown that the gi(x) are a useful class of functions since, among other properties, they are closed under non-negative addition, under the addition of any scalar, and under multiplication of non-negative members of the class. Examples of the above programming problem with increasing constraint functions are found in many chance-constrained programming problems.
Multi-Item Production Planning—An Extension of the HMMS Rules
Authors: Bergstrom Gary L. , Smith Barnard E. 
Published: November 2008

The Linear Decision Rules (LDR) proposed by Holt, Modigliani, Muth, and Simon for the production planning problem determine an optimum plan in terms of an aggregate production rate and work force level. The criteria of the LDR assume we wish to make decisions so as to minimize costs over a specified time horizon, given estimates of future aggregate demand. This paper extends the LDR to a multi-item formulation (MDR) which solves directly for the optimum sales, production, and inventory levels for individual items in future periods. To remove the restriction of specified demand, revenue curves are estimated for each item in each time period. The MDR model then seeks a solution to maximize profit for the firm over the time horizon by an application in a firm producing a line of electric motors. The results of the MDR are compared to management's proposed plan and some important differences are detected.
A New Approach: To an Urban Information Process
Authors: Eastman Charles , Johnson Norman J. , Kortanek Kenneth 
Published: November 2008

This paper outlines a proposed method for gaining continuous information about the activities, attitudes, and concerns of citizens within an urban community. The method provides quick feedback on actions and changes made within the community. It monitors longitudinally, the effects of actions and changes on the population. The approach is derived from marketing panel surveys. It utilizes neighborhood personnel. The organizational aspects of such an enterprise are emphasized, a basic objective being to guarantee the availability of better information to citizen groups as well as public officials. Possible uses of the data collected from such a reporting system are outlined, along with possible modeling efforts and methods of community distribution and utilization. The ultimate goal is the wielding of an effective interface between competing decision-making centers as these wrestle with the major problem of confronting the urban community—uncertainty.