bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Is the density-fertility relation a statistical artifact?: A reply to eric Jensen
Authors: Firebaugh Glenn 
Published: March 2007

Conclusion
Is the density-fertility relation a statistical artifact? The answer, I conclude, is no. Like all empirical findings, the observed coefficients might misstate the true effects, so the density coefficient could be “wrong.” Moreover, the density coefficient does not identify the mechanism(s)—inheritance, child labor value, or migration—through which density affects fertility. But the density coefficient is not artifactual. Jensen’s claims are specious. His principal claim, that the use of ratio variables with common components creates bias, is based on a statistical myth. Two other claims, that pooling the village data creates a spurious correlation between density and the CBR and that the density coefficient has been inflated by simultaneity bias are shown to be false. His final claim, that omitted-variable bias must inflate the density coefficient, is also wrong. I see no reason, then, to modify the conclusions of the Punjab study.
Starting, stopping, and spacing during the early stages of fertility transition: The experience of German village populations in the 18th and 19th centuries
Authors: Knodel John 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Examination of the reproductive histories of a sample of German married couples during the 18th and 19thcenturies provides insights into behavioral changes involveo in the shift from natural fertility to deliberate marital fertility control. A simple accounting scheme is used to assess the relative contributions of starting, spacing, and stopping to changes in family size during the initial phases of the fertility transition. The results suggest that in rural Germany, attempts to terminate childbearing prior to the end of the reproductive span were far more important in initiating the onset of fertility transition than efforts to deliberately prolong intervals between births or changes in the timing of the start of childbearing.
An interactive contextual model of migration in Ilocos Norte, the Philippines
Authors: Findley Sally E. 
Published: March 2007

AbstractThis paper develops and estimates an interactive contextual model of migration in Ilocos Norte, the Philippines. It focuses on how contextual features alter the effects of family class status and community development level on the family’s migration decisions. The model estimates show a curvilinear relation between class status and migration, but the pattern differs in accordance with the prevalence of migration from the community in the past. In addition, the effects of socioeconomic development and agricultural commercialization patterns vary with context. These results demonstrate the importance of using interactive models for analyzing the contextual influences on migration.
The impact of origin community characteristics on rural–urban out-migration in a developing country
Authors: Bilsborrow Richard E. , McDevitt Thomas M. , Kossoudji Sherrie , Fuller Richard 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
It is widely believed that structural variables such as inequitable land distribution, lack of rural employment opportunities, and rural-urban wage and amenity gaps influence population movements in developing countries. Yet quantitative evidence is scant. In this paper a multilevel model is used to investigate the effects of individual-, household-, and areal-level factors on rural-urban out-migration in the Ecuadorian Sierra. Data from a detailed survey carried out in 1977–1978 and from government macro-areal statistics are used to investigate factors affecting the out-migration of youths aged 12–25. Preliminary conclusions are presented on the usefulness of multilevel models in studying migration and policy implications for Ecuador.
Metropolitan and nonmetropolitan migration streams: 1935–1980
Authors: Wilson Franklin D. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Results based on an analysis of migration streams involving the metropolitan and nonmetropolitan sectors and covering a longer time interval than previously possible indicate that efforts to describe changes in the volume of movements connecting these sectors could benefit from greater attention to other related streams as well as existing patterns of population concentration. The metropolitanization process continues but is now being affected substantially by regional redistribution trends. Regional differentials in the size of metropolitan and nonmetropolitan migration streams are declining but are still substantial, so an equilibrium balance between the metropolitan and nonmetropolitan sectors will probably not occur in the immediate future.
The impact of induced abortion on black and white birth outcomes in the United States
Authors: Joyce Theodore 
Published: March 2007

AbstractThis paper examines the impact of induced abortion on birth outcomes by treating abortion as an endogenous input into the production of infant health. To gauge the direct and indirect effects of abortion, three measures of infant health are considered simultaneously: the neonatal mortality rate, the percentage of low-weight births, and the percentage of preterm births. All three are race specific and all pertain to large counties in the United States in 1977. The results suggest that by preventing unwanted births, abortion enhances the survivability of newborns of a given birth weight and improves the distribution of births among high-risk groups.
Bust after boom: First marriage trends in Australia
Authors: Carmichael Gordon A. 
Published: March 2007

AbstractSince the early 1970s Australia has experienced a pronounced trend to later and less universal marriage. This stands in sharp contrast to a marriage boom that began with the outbreak of World War II and lasted for three decades. The boom was the product of three sets of forces: those peculiar to wartime, those emerging in the early postwar period and creating a climate favorable to marriage, and those surfacing in the 1960s with the advent of oral contraception. Its reversal is attributed largely to less frequent resort to marriage when premaritally pregnant, the rise of cohabitation as a prelude or alternative to marriage, economic forces hindering family formation, and ideological change.
Desired family size and its determinants among urban Nigerian women: A two-stage analysis
Authors: McCarthy James , Oni Gbolahan A. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper proposes and carries out a two-stage analysis of the determinants of desired family size, using data gathered from a sample of women in the city of Ilorin, Nigeria. The analysis first focuses on differences between women who report numerical family size desires and those who report nonnumerical desires. Findings suggest that there are important differences between these two groups, but there is little variation in the actual number reported by those expressing numerical desires. Implications of these findings for survey design are discussed. In particular, the practice of forcing numerical responses by instructing interviewers to probe when women report nonnumerical desires is questioned.
Gender preference and birth spacing in matlab, Bangladesh
Authors: Rahman Mizanur , DaVanzo Julie 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Gender preference, particularly son preference, is believed to sustain high fertility in many Asian countries, but previous research shows unclear effects. We examine and compare gender-preference effects on fertility in two otherwise comparable populations in Bangladesh that differ markedly in their access to and use of contraception. We expect, and find, stronger effects of gender preference in the population that has more access to contraception and higher levels of contraceptive use. Thus gender preference may emerge as a significant barrier to further national family planning efforts in Bangladesh. We find that if a woman has at least one daughter, the risk of a subsequent birth is related negatively to the number of sons. Women with no daughters also experience a higher risk of having a subsequent birth; this finding suggests that there is also some preference for daughters. Son preference is strong in both the early and later stages of family formation, but women also want to have at least one daughter after having several sons.
The dynamics of smallpox epidemics in Britain, 1550–1800
Authors: Duncan S. R. , Scott Susan , Duncan C. J. 
Published: March 2007

AbstractTime-series analysis, a valuable tool in studying population dynamics, has been used to determine the periodicity of smallpox epidemics during the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries in two contrasting representative situations: 1) London, a large city where smallpox was endemic, and 2) Penrith, a small rural town. The interepidemic period was found to be two years in London and five years in Penrith. Equations governing the dynamics of epidemics predict 1) a two-year periodicity and 2) that oscillatory epidemics die out quickly. It is suggested that epidemics were maintained by a periodic variation in susceptibility linked either to a five-year cycle of malnutrition or to an annual cycle. Computer modeling shows how the very different patterns of epidemics are related to population size and to the magnitude of the oscillation in susceptibility.
The determinants of early fertility decline in Texas
Authors: Gutmann Myron P. , Fliess Kenneth H. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This study examines the determinants of fertility control in a frontier population made up largely of German-Americans during the years from 1850 to 1910. The analysis employs a complex register of population constructed from census enumerations, civil and ecclesiastical vital registration, and tax assessment rolls. The article begins with a series of bivariate analyses with cohort of mother’s birth, religion, ethnicity, and husband’s occupation determining marital fertility. The second half of the paper presents a multivariate model of the determinants of fertility using these and other demographic characteristics as independent variables. The conclusions emphasize the importance of the overall trend toward fertility decline in the United States, as well as the role of religion and of occupational differences, in determining changes in fertility behavior in the population of Gillespie County, Texas.
Using survey data to assess neonatal tetanus mortality levels and trends in developing countries
Authors: Boerma J. Ties , Stroh George 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Demographic and health surveys are a useful source of information on the levels and trends of neonatal mortality in developing countries. Such surveys provide data on mortality occurring at 4–14 days of life, which is a sensitive indicator of neonatal tetanus mortality. We analyze birth history data from 37 national surveys in developing countries to assess the quality of neonatal mortality data and to estimate levels and trends in mortality occurring at 4–14 days. It is shown that mortality at 4-14 days has declined considerably during the last decade in most developing countries, concomitant with development and expansion of programs to reduce neonatal tetanus. These declines show that reductions in neonatal tetanus mortality probably have been an important contributor to the decline of neonatal and infant mortality during the 1980s.
What demographers can learn from fruit fly actuarial models and biology
Authors: Carey James R. 
Published: March 2007

AbstractHistorically demographers have viewed the results of actuarial studies of nonhuman species, particularly those on invertebrates such as fruit flies, as largely irrelevant to investigations on human populations. In this paper I present life table data from large scale studies on the Mediterranean fruit fly, and show that they provide important insights into fundamental aspects of mortality relevant to human populations: the trajectory of mortality at older ages, sex mortality differentials, the concept of maximal life span, and demographic heterogeneity and selection. An overriding theme of the paper is the need for demographers to acquire a heightened awareness of new developments in biology including areas such as evolutionary ecology, experimental demography, and molecular medicine.
How frailty models can be used for evaluating longevity limits: Taking advantage of an interdisciplinary approach
Authors: Yashin Anatoli I. , Iachine Ivan A. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
In this paper we discuss an approach to the analysis of mortality and longevity limits when survival data on related individuals with and without observed covariates are available. The approach combines the ideas of demography and survival analysis with methods of quantitative genetics and genetic epidemiology. It allows us to analyze the genetic structure of frailty in the Cox-type hazard model with random effects. We demonstrate the implementation of this strategy to survival data on Danish twins. We then evaluate the resulting lower bounds for biological limits of human longevity. Finally, we discuss the limitations of this approach and directions of further research.
Death and Taxes: Longer life, consumption, and social security
Authors: Lee Ronald , Tuljapurkar Shripad 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
We analyze in three steps the influence of the projected mortality decline on the long run finances of the Social Security System. First, on a theoretical level, mortality decline adds person years of life which are distributed across the life cycle. The interaction of this distribution with the age distribution of labor earnings minus consumption, or of taxes minus benefits, partially determines the corresponding steady state financial consequences of mortality decline. The effect of mortality decline on population growth rates also matters, but is negligible in low mortality populations. Second, examination of past mortality trends in the United States and of international trends in low mortality populations, suggests that mortality will decline faster than foreseen by the Social Security Administration s forecasts. Third, we combine the work of the first two parts in dynamic simulations to examine the implications of mortality decline and of alternative forecasts of mortality for the finances of the social security system. Also, we use stochastic population forecasts to assess the influence of uncertainty about mortality decline on uncertainty about finances; we find that uncertainty about fertility still has more important implications than uncertainty about mortality, contrary to sensitivity tests in the official forecasts.
Why Marry? Race and the Transition to Marriage among Cohabitors
Authors: Manning Wendy D. , Smock Pamela J. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Our study investigates the transition to first marriage among cohabiting black and white men and women, drawing on data from the National Survey of Families and Households. Our results underscore the importance of economic factors on the transition to marriage for both black and white cohabitors. We also find that for black cohabitors, but not for whites, socioeconomic disadvantage during childhood reduces the odds of marriage. The presence of children in cohabiting unions tends to increase the chances of marrying a cohabiting partner for both blacks and whites. Our results demonstrate the importance of including cohabitation in research on the marriage process.
Dissolution of Premarital Cohabitation in Canada
Authors: Wu Zheng , Balakrishnan T. R. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The rapid increase in the number of unmarried cohabiting couples, indicated by recent evidence, is crucial to our understanding of changing marriage patterns. The levels and patterns of entry into cohabitation have been well documented over the last two decades. but little is known about the outcomes of nonmarital cohabitation. In this study we examine two competing outcomes of cohabitation relationships: union separation and legalization of the union through marriage. Our results show that the hazard rate of union dissolution is affected particularly by gender, fertility status, partner’s marital status, religion, age at start of cohabitation, year cohabitation commenced, and region.
A Marriage Trichotomy and its Applications
Authors: Speizer Ilene S. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper promotes research methods specific to men, the new focus of fertility and family planning studies (especially in sub-Saharan Africa). I propose a novel marriage categorization based on married men’s intentions to take another wife. The three marriage groups are currently monogamous men who intend to remain so, currently monogamous men who intend to become polygynous, and currently polygynous men. The first analysis demonstrates that typical marriage analyses may misclassify men who intend to become polygynous. Applications of the marriage trichotomy illustrate that men with varying marital intentions have differing desires regarding fertility and family planning.
Aggregate Population and Economic Growth Correlations: The Role of the Components of Demographic Change
Authors: Kelley Allen C. , Schmidt Robert M. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The results of recent correlations showing a negative impact of population growth on economic development in cross-country data for the 1980s, versus “nonsignificant” correlations widely found for the 1960s and 1970s, are examined with contemporaneous and lagged components of demographic change, convergence-type economic modeling, and several statistical frameworks. The separate impacts of births and deaths are found to be notable but offsetting in the earlier periods. In contrast, the short-run costs (benefits) of births (mortality reduction) increase (decrease) significantly in the 1980s, and the favorable labor-force impacts of past births are not fully offsetting.
Immigrant Characteristics and Hispanic-Anglo Housing Inequality
Authors: Krivo Lauren J. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper seeks to explain why Hispanic households in the United States live in housing markedly inferior to Anglos’. I argue that immigrant characteristics of Hispanic households and the metropolitan areas in which Hispanics live play important roles in determining such inequality in the housing market. Empirical analyses of homeownership, household crowding, and housing costs demonstrate that immigration plays a role in explaining relatively low homeownership and high household crowding for each of four large Hispanic populations (Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, Cubans, and other Hispanics). The role of immigrant characteristics in determining housing costs is much weaker.
Unintended Consequences of Immigration Reform: Discrimination and Hispanic Employment
Authors: Lowell B. Lindsay , Teachman Jay , Jing Zhongren 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The record-keeping requirements of the Immigration Reform and Control Act(IRCA), and fines for illegal employment, may induce employers to discriminate against foreign-appearing workers. The General Accounting Office (GAO) reported widespread IRCA-related discrimination but did not link reported discriminatory practices to discriminatory employment behavior. We analyze the GAO’s random survey and, controlling for selectivity effects, demonstrate that employers who report discriminatory practices actually employ fewer Hispanics. Although the measured reduction of Hispanic employment due to IRCA is fairly small, this finding parallels research alerting us to adverse consequences of a law that so far has achieved few of its intended effects.
The Effect of Divorce on Intergenerational Transfers: New Evidence
Authors: Furstenberg Frank F. , Hoffman Saul D. , Shrestha Laura 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper draws on new data on intergenerational transfers of time and money that were collected in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. We use these data to examine the effects of divorce on these transfers. We find that the timing of divorce is critical. Fathers and mothers involved in late divorces have similar levels of transfers with their adult children, while divorce during a child’s childhood years increases transfers with mothers and sharply lowers them with fathers. Somewhat surprisingly, we find no evidence that divorced fathers who paid child support are more likely to be involved in intergenerational transfers than those who did not pay child support.
Self-Interest and Altruism in Intergenerational Relations
Authors: Logan John R. , Spitze Glenna D. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Self-interest and altruism in the relationships between generations can be manifested both within the family and in the public arena. The present study compares levels of support between age groups 40-49,50-59, 60-69, 70-79, and 80+ on a series of attitudes about “appropriate” parent-child relations and governmental programs for older people. On both kinds of measures, older people tend consistently to be least likely to adopt the “pro-elderly” position. This association is maintained when controls are introduced in multivariate analyses. Altruism, not self-interest, seems to govern the attitudes of the older generation in this sample. This finding should mitigate potential conflicts over issues of intergenerational equity and fairness, both within the family and in public policy.
Explaining Changes in Married Mothers’ Employment over Time
Authors: Leibowitz Arleen , Klerman Jacob Alex 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Employment of married mothers with preschool children rose dramatically between 1971 and 1990. Using CPS data, we find that about one-fifth of the increase in labor supply can be attributed to changes in mothers’ demographic characteristics (age, education, and number of children). Changes in the earnings opportunities of new mothers and their husbands explain another one-fifth of the growth in employment. Over the two decades, infants up to three months old became less of a barrier to employment, while women’s labor supply became more sensitive to their own earnings opportunities and less sensitive to those of their husbands.
Cohort Trends in the Lifetime Distribution of Female Family Headship in the United States, 1968–1985
Authors: Moffitt Robert A. , Rendall Michael S. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
We use the PSID Relationship File to estimate cohort trends in the lifetime incidence and duration of female family headship. Hazard (event-history) techniques are used to estimate movements into and out of headship, accounting for duration dependence and left-censored spells. The mean number of years spent in headship between ages 14 and 59 rose dramatically over the period. The increase arose from an increased number of headship spells, including an increase in the number of women ever experiencing headship, but not at all from an increase in durations of headship spells; those decreased slightly.
A Case Study on the Use of Multiple Imputation
Authors: Freedman Vicki A. , Wolf Douglas A. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Multiple imputation is a relatively new technique for dealing with missing values on items from survey data. Rather than deleting observations for which a value is missing, or assigning a single value to incomplete observations, one replaces each missing item with two or more values. Inferences then can be made with the complete data set. This paper presents an application of multiple imputation using the 1987–1988 National Survey of Families and Households. We impute several binary indicators of whether the respondent’s elderly mother/mother-in-law is married. Descriptive statistics are then presented for the sample of adult children with an unmarried mother or mother-in-law.