bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Simulating AOGCM Soil Moisture Using an Off-Line Thornthwaite Potential Evapotranspiration–Based Land Surface Scheme. Part I: Control Runs
Authors: Cornwell Adam R. , Harvey L. D. Danny 
Published: July 2008

Abstract
Atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) employ very different land surface schemes (LSSs) and, as a result, their predictions of land surface quantities are often difficult to compare. Some of the disagreement in quantities such as soil moisture is likely due to differences in the atmospheric component; however, previous intercomparison studies have determined that different LSSs can produce very different results even when supplied with identical atmospheric forcing.
A simple off-line LSS is presented that can reproduce the soil moisture simulations of various AOGCMs, based on their modeled temperature and precipitation. The scheme makes use of the well-established Thornthwaite method for estimating potential evapotranspiration combined with a variation of the Manabe “bucket” model. The model can be tuned to reproduce the control climate soil moisture of an AOGCM by adjusting the ease with which runoff and evapotranspiration continue as the moisture level in the bucket goes down. This produces a set of parameter values that provides a good fit to each of several AOGCM control climates. In addition, the parameter values can be set to imitate the LSS from one AOGCM while the model is forced with atmospheric data from another, thus providing an estimate of the magnitude of variation caused by the differences in land surface parameterization and by differences in atmospheric forcing. In general, the authors find that differences in LSSs account for about half of the difference in soil moisture as simulated by different AOGCMs, and the differences in atmospheric forcing account for the other half of the difference. However, the LSS can be more important than differences in atmospheric forcing in some regions (such as the United States) and less important in others (such as East Africa).
A Weather-Type Approach to Analyzing Winter Precipitation in France: Twentieth-Century Trends and the Role of Anthropogenic Forcing
Authors: Boé J. , Terray L. 
Published: July 2008

Abstract
The relationship between large-scale atmospheric circulation and November–March precipitation over France during the twentieth century is investigated. A long daily MSLP dataset is used to derive daily weather types that are discriminant for precipitation. A linear regression model is then used to relate the November–March-accumulated precipitation amount and the occurrence frequency of the weather types. This simple model shows that an important part of the interannual variability of precipitation is directly linked to large-scale circulation changes. Trends in observed precipitation and precipitation series reconstructed by regression are computed and compared. Spatially coherent trends in November–March precipitation during the second half of the twentieth century are observed, with an increase in the north and a decrease in the south. The spatial pattern of the trends in reconstructed precipitation is very similar to that observed, even if an underestimation of the positive trends in the north is seen, indicating that other mechanisms play a role. A detection study then leads to a better understanding of the respective roles of anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosol) and sea surface temperature in the evolution of the weather-type occurrence. Finally, it is shown that intratype dynamical variability has also played a role in precipitation changes in northern France, whereas no impact of temperature changes is seen.
Volcanoes and ENSO over the Past Millennium
Authors: Emile-Geay Julien , Seager Richard , Cane Mark A. , Cook Edward R. , Haug Gerald H. 
Published: July 2008

Abstract
The controversial claim that El Niño events might be partially caused by radiative forcing due to volcanic aerosols is reassessed. Building on the work of Mann et al., estimates of volcanic forcing over the past millennium and a climate model of intermediate complexity are used to draw a diagram of El Niño likelihood as a function of the intensity of volcanic forcing. It is shown that in the context of this model, only eruptions larger than that of Mt. Pinatubo (1991, peak dimming of about 3.7 W m−2) can shift the likelihood and amplitude of an El Niño event above the level of the model’s internal variability. Explosive volcanism cannot be said to trigger El Niño events per se, but it is found to raise their likelihood by 50% on average, also favoring higher amplitudes. This reconciles, on one hand, the demonstration by Adams et al. of a statistical relationship between explosive volcanism and El Niño and, on the other hand, the ability to predict El Niño events of the last 148 yr without knowledge of volcanic forcing.
The authors then focus on the strongest eruption of the millennium (A.D. 1258), and show that it is likely to have favored the occurrence of a moderate-to-strong El Niño event in the midst of prevailing La Niña–like conditions induced by increased solar activity during the well-documented Medieval Climate Anomaly. Compiling paleoclimate data from a wide array of sources, a number of important hydroclimatic consequences for neighboring areas is documented. The authors propose, in particular, that the event briefly interrupted a solar-induced megadrought in the southwestern United States. Most of the time, however, volcanic eruptions are found to be too small to significantly affect ENSO statistics.
Weakening Trend in the Atmospheric Heat Source over the Tibetan Plateau during Recent Decades. Part I: Observations
Authors: Duan Anmin , Wu Guoxiong 
Published: July 2008

Abstract
The trend in the atmospheric heat source over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) during the last four decades is evaluated using historical observations at 74 meteorological stations in the period of 1961–2003 and satellite radiation data from 1983 to 2004. It is shown that in contrast to the strong surface and troposphere warming, the sensible heat (SH) flux over the TP exhibits a significant decreasing trend since the mid-1980s. The largest trend occurs in spring, a season of the highest SH over the TP. The subdued surface wind speed contributes most to the decreasing trend. At the same time, the radiative cooling effect in the air column enhances persistently. Despite the fact that the in situ latent heating presents a weak increasing trend, the springtime atmospheric heat source over the TP loses its strength during two recent decades. Further investigation suggests that the weakened SH over the TP may be part of the global circulation shift.
Annular versus Nonannular Variability of the Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation
Authors: Castanheira J. M. , Liberato M. L. R. , de la Torre L. , Graf H-F. , Rocha A. 
Published: July 2008

Abstract
The annular variability of the northern winter extratropical circulation is reassessed based on reanalysis data that are dynamically filtered by normal modes. One-half of the variability of the monthly averaged barotropic zonally symmetric circulation of the Northern Hemisphere is statistically distinct from the remaining variability and is represented by its leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) alone. The daily time series of the circulation anomalies projected onto the leading EOF is highly correlated (r ≥ 0.7) with the lower-stratospheric northern annular mode (NAM) indices showing that annular variability extends from the stratosphere deep into the troposphere. However, the geopotential and wind anomalies associated with the leading principal component (PC1) of the barotropic zonally symmetric circulation are displaced northward relative to the zonal mean anomalies associated with the PC1 of the geopotential height variability at single-isobaric tropospheric levels. The regression pattern of the 500-hPa geopotential height (Z500) onto the lower-stratospheric NAM also shows zonally symmetric components displaced northward with respect to those of the leading EOF of the Z500 field.
A principal component analysis (PCA) of the residual variability of the Z500 field remaining after the substraction of the Z500 regressed onto the lower-stratospheric NAM index also reveals a pattern with a zonally symmetric component at midlatitudes. However, this zonally symmetric component appears as the second EOF of the residual variability and is the imprint of two independent dipoles over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.
Results show that a zonally symmetric component of the middle- and lower-tropospheric circulation variability exists at high latitudes. At the middle latitudes, the zonally symmetric component, if any exists, is artificially overemphasized by the PCA on single-isobaric tropospheric levels.
Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Simulations
Authors: LaRow T. E. , Lim Y-K. , Shin D. W. , Chassignet E. P. , Cocke S. 
Published: July 2008

Abstract
An ensemble of seasonal Atlantic hurricane simulations is conducted using The Florida State University/Center for Ocean–Atmospheric Prediction Studies (FSU–COAPS) global spectral model (Cocke and LaRow) at a resolution of T126L27 (a Gaussian grid spacing of 0.94°). Four integrations comprising the ensembles were generated using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) time-lagged initial atmospheric conditions centered on 1 June for the 20 yr from 1986 to 2005. The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were updated weekly using the Reynolds et al. observed data. An objective-tracking algorithm obtained from the ECMWF and modified for this model’s resolution was used to detect and track the storms. It was found that the model’s composite storm structure and track lengths are realistic. In addition, the 20-yr interannual variability was well simulated by the ensembles with a 0.78 ensemble mean rank correlation. The ensembles tend to overestimate (underestimate) the numbers of storms during July (September) and produced only one CAT4–level storm on the Saffir–Simpson scale. Similar problems are noted in other global model simulations. All ensembles did well in simulating the large number of storms forming in the Atlantic basin during 1995 and showed an increase in the number of storms during La Niña and a decrease during El Niño events. The results are found to be sensitive to the choices of convection schemes and diffusion coefficients. The overall conclusion is that models such as the one used here are needed to better hindcast the interannual variability; however, going to an even higher resolution does not guarantee better interannual variability, tracks, or intensity. Improved physical parameterizations, such as using an explicit convection scheme and better representation of surface roughness at high wind speeds, are likely to more accurately represent hurricane intensity.
Direct and Indirect Shortwave Radiative Effects of Sea Salt Aerosols
Authors: Ayash Tarek , Gong Sunling , Jia Charles Q. 
Published: July 2008

Abstract
Sea salt aerosols play a dual role in affecting the atmospheric radiative balance. Directly, sea salt particles scatter the incoming solar radiation and absorb the outgoing terrestrial radiation. By acting as cloud condensation nuclei, sea salt aerosols indirectly modulate the atmospheric radiative budget through their effective contribution to cloud formation. Using the Canadian Aerosol Module (CAM)–Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) GCM, version 3 (GCM3) framework, the direct as well as the indirect shortwave (SW) radiative effects of sea salt aerosols are simulated. The model results herein suggest that sea salt aerosols exert a significant direct radiative effect over oceanic regions, with seasonal means in the range from −2 to −3 W m−2 over the Southern Ocean. Globally, sea salt’s SW indirect effect (annual mean −0.38 W m−2) is found to be less than its direct effect (annual mean −0.65 W m−2). However, sea salt’s indirect effect is found to be far stronger over the Southern Hemisphere than over the Northern Hemisphere, especially over the Southern Ocean with seasonal means around −4 W m−2, which exceed its direct effect. The model results herein suggest that sea salt aerosols significantly modulate the atmospheric radiation budget over oceanic regions and need to be accounted for in global climate models.
Observed and Simulated Upper-Tropospheric Water Vapor Feedback
Authors: Gettelman A. , Fu Q. 
Published: July 2008

Abstract
Satellite measurements from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) in the upper troposphere over 4.5 yr are used to assess the covariation of upper-tropospheric humidity and temperature with surface temperatures, which can be used to constrain the upper-tropospheric moistening due to the water vapor feedback. Results are compared to simulations from a general circulation model, the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), to see if the model can reproduce the variations. Results indicate that the upper troposphere maintains nearly constant relative humidity for observed perturbations to ocean surface temperatures over the observed period, with increases in temperature ∼1.5 times the changes at the surface, and corresponding increases in water vapor (specific humidity) of 10%–25% °C−1. Increases in water vapor are largest at pressures below 400 hPa, but they have a double peak structure. Simulations reproduce these changes quantitatively and qualitatively. Agreement is best when the model is sorted for satellite sampling thresholds. This indicates that the model reproduces the moistening associated with the observed upper-tropospheric water vapor feedback. The results are not qualitatively sensitive to model resolution or model physics.
Impacts of Assimilation of Satellite and Rawinsonde Observations on Southern Hemisphere Baroclinic Wave Activity in the NCEP–NCAR Reanalysis
Authors: Guo Yanjuan , Chang Edmund K. M. 
Published: July 2008

Abstract
In this study, the impacts of the assimilation of satellite and rawinsonde observations on Southern Hemisphere (SH) baroclinic wave activity in the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis are examined by comparing analyses made with and without the assimilation of satellite data (SAT and NOSAT, respectively) for the year 1979, as well as by comparing analyses to the corresponding first guesses from 1958 to 1999.
Comparing the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) computed based on the SAT and NOSAT analyses, it is found that the assimilation of satellite data generally decreases the EKE in the SH, which is the opposite of the findings for the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) in previous studies. The decrease of EKE by satellite data in the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis can be traced back to a low bias in retrieved satellite temperature (SATEMP) variance. The eddy available potential energy (EPE) is decreased even more than the EKE with the assimilation of SATEMP, making the waves more barotropic in the SAT analysis.
The EKE analysis increment, that is, the difference between the EKE based on analysis and first guess, is a good quantity to indicate the impacts of all observations assimilated. In the NOSAT analysis, positive EKE analysis increments are found around the SH rawinsonde stations, indicating that the assimilation of rawinsonde data increases EKE significantly from the first guess. This also suggests that the NCEP–NCAR first guess is probably biased low. Positive analysis increments around the rawinsonde stations become even larger in the SAT analysis compared with the NOSAT, suggesting that with the assimilation of low-biased SATEMP data, the EKE in the analysis (the initial condition for next time) and hence the first guess is reduced, therefore the rawinsonde observations have to further increase the EKE from the first guess. The patterns of EKE increment from the presatellite (1958–77) and satellite (1979–99) eras show high degrees of similarities to the NOSAT and SAT reanalysis patterns, respectively, lending further support to these findings.
The impact of the assimilation of satellite data on the trend of SH baroclinic wave activity is discussed. Positive trends in the SH EKE are found in both the NCEP–NCAR and ERA-40 reanalyses during 1958–99. After taking the impacts of satellite data into account, the EKE trend in the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis gets stronger, while that in the ERA-40 is largely weakened, which adds complications to assessing the real trend in SH baroclinic wave activity.
Comparisons among the variances based on the two reanalyses, NCEP–NCAR first guess, SATEMP, and rawinsonde observations are presented to substantiate some of the findings discussed above, such as the low bias in energy in NCEP–NCAR first guess and SATEMP variance.
Stability of Antarctic Bottom Water Formation to Freshwater Fluxes and Implications for Global Climate
Authors: Trevena Jessica , Sijp Willem P. , England Matthew H. 
Published: July 2008

Abstract
The stability of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) to freshwater (FW) perturbations is investigated in a coupled climate model of intermediate complexity. It is found that AABW is stable to surface freshwater fluxes greater in volume and rate to those that permanently “shut down” North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). Although AABW weakens during FW forcing, it fully recovers within 50 yr of termination of FW input. This is due in part to a concurrent deep warming during AABW suppression that acts to eventually destabilize the water column. In addition, the prevailing upwelling of Circumpolar Deep Water and northward Ekman transport across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, regulated by the subpolar westerly winds, limits the accumulation of FW at high latitudes and provides a mechanism for resalinizing the surface after the FW forcing has ceased. Enhanced sea ice production in the cooler AABW suppressed state also aids in the resalinization of the surface after FW forcing is stopped. Convection then restarts with AABW properties only slightly colder and fresher compared to the unperturbed control climate state. Further experiments with larger FW perturbations and very slow application rates (0.2 Sv/1000 yr) (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) confirm the lack of multiple steady states of AABW in the model. This contrasts with the North Atlantic, wherein classical hysteresis behavior is obtained with similar forcing. The climate response to reduced AABW production is also investigated. During peak FW forcing, Antarctic surface sea and air temperatures decrease by a maximum of 2.5° and 2.2°C, respectively. This is of a similar magnitude to the corresponding response in the North Atlantic. Although in the final steady state, the AABW experiment returns to the original control climate, whereas the North Atlantic case transitions to a different steady state characterized by substantial regional cooling (up to 6.0°C surface air temperature).
Evolution of the Deep and Bottom Waters of the Scotia Sea, Southern Ocean, during 1995–2005*
Authors: Meredith Michael P. , Garabato Alberto C. Naveira , Gordon Arnold L. , Johnson Gregory C. 
Published: July 2008

Abstract
The Southern Ocean hosts the formation of the densest layers of the oceanic overturning circulation and provides a climatically sensitive element of deep ocean ventilation. An oceanographic section across the eastern Scotia Sea occupied in 1995, 1999, and 2005 reveals significant variability in the deep and bottom waters of Southern Ocean origin. Warming (∼0.1°C) of the warm midlayer waters in the Scotia Sea between 1995 and 1999 reversed through to 2005, reflecting changes seen earlier upstream in the Weddell Sea. The volume of deep waters with potential temperature less than 0°C decreased during 1995–2005, though such a reduction was only clear between 1995 and 1999 at the southern end of the section. The abyssal waters of the eastern Scotia Sea changed circulation between 1995 and 1999, with the dominant point of their entry to the basin shifting from the south to the northeast; by 2005, the former route had regained dominance. These changes are best explained by interannual variations in the deep waters exiting the Weddell Sea, superimposed on a longer-term (decadal) warming trend. The interannual variations are related to changes in the strength of the Weddell Gyre, reflecting large-scale atmospheric variability that may include the El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon. The Scotia Sea is the most direct pathway for dense waters of the overturning circulation emanating from the Weddell Sea to fill much of the World Ocean abyss. The regional changes reported here have the potential to affect the climatically significant ventilation of the global ocean abyss.
Temporal Variability of Fair-Weather Cumulus Statistics at the ACRF SGP Site
Authors: Berg Larry K. , Kassianov Evgueni I. 
Published: July 2008

Abstract
Continental fair-weather cumuli exhibit significant diurnal, day-to-day, and year-to-year variability. This study describes the climatology of cloud macroscale properties, over the U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility (ACRF) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. The diurnal cycle of cloud fraction, cloud-base height, cloud-top height, and cloud thickness were well defined. The cloud fraction reached its maximum value near 1400 central standard time. The average cloud-base height increased throughout the day, while the average cloud thickness decreased with time. In contrast to the other cloud properties, the average cloud-chord length remained nearly constant throughout the day. The sensitivity of the cloud properties to the year-to-year variability of precipitation and day-to-day changes in the height of the lifting condensation level (zLCL) and surface fluxes were compared. The cloud-base height was found to be sensitive to both the year, zLCL, and the surface fluxes of heat and moisture; the cloud thickness was found to be more sensitive to the year than to zLCL; the cloud fraction was sensitive to both the low-level moisture and the surface sensible heat flux; and cloud-chord length was sensitive to zLCL. Distributions of the cloud-chord length over the ACRF SGP site were computed and were well fit by an exponential distribution. The contribution to the total cloud fraction by clouds of each cloud-chord length was computed, and it was found that the clouds with a chord length of about 1 km contributed most to the observed cloud fraction. This result is similar to observations made with other remote sensing instruments or in modeling studies, but it is different from aircraft observations of the contribution to the total cloud fraction by clouds of different sizes.