bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
The Relation between Baroclinic Adjustment and Turbulent Diffusion in the Two-Layer Model
Authors: Zurita-Gotor Pablo 
Published: April 2007

Abstract
Baroclinic adjustment and turbulent diffusion are two popular paradigms used to describe the eddy–mean flow closure in the two-layer model, with very different implications for the criticality of the system. Baroclinic adjustment postulates the existence of preferred equilibrium states, while the turbulent diffusion framework predicts smooth variations of the mean state with the forcing. This study investigates the relevance of each paradigm over a wide range of the parameter space, including very strong changes in the diabatic forcing. The results confirm the weak sensitivity of the criticality against changes in the forcing noted by baroclinic adjustment studies but do not support the existence of preferred equilibrium states.
The weak sensitivity of the mean state when the forcing is varied is consistent with the steepness of the diffusive closure predicted by homogeneous turbulence theories. These turbulent predictions have been tested locally against observed empirical diffusivities, extending a previous study by Pavan and Held. The results suggest that a local closure works well, even at low criticalities when the eddy momentum fluxes are important, provided that the criticality is generalized to include the effect of the meridional curvature potential vorticity (PV) gradient. When friction is weak, the development of this curvature may be important for halting the cascade and making the flow more linear. A remarkable difference from previous homogeneous results is that the empirical closure does not appear to steepen at low criticality. This may be due to the use of a generalized criticality or to the distinction between a local and domain-averaged closure.
Turbulent Fluxes in the Hurricane Boundary Layer. Part I: Momentum Flux
Authors: French Jeffrey R. , Drennan William M. , Zhang Jun A. , Black Peter G. 
Published: April 2007

Abstract
An important outcome from the ONR-sponsored Coupled Boundary Layer Air–Sea Transfer (CBLAST) Hurricane Program is the first-ever direct measurements of momentum flux from within hurricane boundary layers. In 2003, a specially instrumented NOAA P3 aircraft obtained measurements suitable for computing surface wind stress and ultimately estimating drag coefficients in regions with surface wind between 18 and 30 m s−1. Analyses of data are presented from 48 flux legs flown within 400 m of the surface in two storms. Results suggest a roll-off in the drag coefficient at higher wind speeds, in qualitative agreement with laboratory and modeling studies and inferences of drag coefficients using a log-profile method. However, the amount of roll-off and the wind speed at which the roll-off occurs remains uncertain, underscoring the need for additional measurements.
Coupling of Convective Momentum Transport with Convective Heating in Global Climate Simulations
Authors: Wu Xiaoqing , Deng Liping , Song Xiaoliang , Zhang Guang Jun 
Published: April 2007

Abstract
The effects of convective momentum transport (CMT) on global climate simulations are examined in this study. Comparison between two sets of 20-yr (1979–98) integration using the NCAR Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3) illustrates that the inclusion of CMT in the convection scheme systematically modifies the climate mean state over the equatorial region. The convective momentum tendencies slow down the equatorward flow at higher latitudes near the surface and weaken the equatorial convergence and convection. This reduces the convective heating and drying around the equator and produces an improved meridional distribution within the upward branch of the Hadley circulation. The major heating peak during the boreal winter is moved to south of the equator at about 10°S, which is closer to the heat budget residuals of the ECMWF reanalysis data. The responses of meridional wind to the reduced heating result in the secondary meridional circulation within the intertropical convergence zone.
Tropical Cyclogenesis within an Equatorial Rossby Wave Packet
Authors: Molinari John , Lombardo Kelly , Vollaro David 
Published: April 2007

Abstract
A packet of equatorial Rossby (ER) waves that lasted 2.5 months is identified in the lower troposphere of the northwest Pacific. Waves within the packet had a period of 22 days, a wavelength of 3600 km, a westward phase speed of 1.9 m s−1, and a near-zero group speed. The wave properties followed the ER wave dispersion relation with an equivalent depth near 25 m. The packet was associated with the development of at least 8 of the 13 tropical cyclones that formed during the period. A composite was constructed around the genesis locations. Tropical cyclones formed east of the center of the composite ER wave low in a region of strong convection and a separate 850-hPa vorticity maximum.
The background flow during the life of the packet was characterized by 850-hPa zonal wind convergence and easterly vertical wind shear. Wave amplitude peaked at the west end of the convergent region, suggesting that wave accumulation played a significant role in the growth of the packet. The presence of easterly vertical wind shear provided an environment that trapped energy in the lower troposphere. Each of these processes increases wave amplitude and thus the likelihood of tropical cyclone formation within the waves.
The initial low pressure region within the wave packet met Lander’s definition of a monsoon gyre. It developed to the west of persistent localized convection that followed the penetration of an upper-tropospheric trough into the subtropics. It is argued that the monsoon gyre represented the initial ER wave low within the packet.
The Effect of Internally Generated Inner-Core Asymmetries on Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity*
Authors: Yang Bo , Wang Yuqing , Wang Bin 
Published: April 2007

Abstract
In a quiescent environment on an f plane, the internal dynamic processes of a tropical cyclone (TC) can generate axially asymmetric circulations (asymmetries) in its inner-core region. The present study investigates how these inner-core asymmetries affect TC intensity. For this purpose, a three-dimensional (3D) TC model and its axisymmetric (2D) version were used. Both have identical model vertical structure and use the same set of parameters and the same initial conditions. The differences between the two model runs are considered to be due to mainly the effects of the TC asymmetries. The results show that the presence of asymmetries in the 3D run reduces the TC final intensity by about 15% compared with the 2D run, suggesting that the TC asymmetry is a limiting factor to the potential intensity (PI).
In the 2D run without asymmetries, the convective heating in the eyewall generates an annular tower of high potential vorticity (PV) with relatively low PV in the eye. The eyewall tilts outward with height significantly. Underneath the tilted eyewall the downdrafts induced by evaporation of rain and melting of snow and graupel make the subcloud-layer inflow dry and cool, which lowers the boundary layer equivalent potential temperature (θe), thus increasing the entropy difference between the air and sea in the vicinity of the radius of maximum wind (RMW). The increased air–sea entropy deficit leads to more energy input into TC from the underlying ocean and thus a greater final intensity. On the other hand, in the 3D run, the model-resolved asymmetric eddies, which are characterized by the vortex Rossby waves in the mid-lower troposphere, play important roles in modifying the symmetric structure of the TC. Potential vorticity and θe budgets indicate that significant inward PV mixing from the eyewall into the eye results in a less-tilted eyewall, which in turn limits the drying and cooling effects of downdrafts in the subcloud layer and reduces the air–sea entropy deficit under the eyewall, thereby reducing the TC intensity. The angular momentum budget analysis shows that the asymmetric eddies tend to reduce the strength of the primary circulation in the vicinity of the RMW. This eddy contribution to the azimuthal mean angular momentum budget is larger than the parameterized horizontal diffusion contribution in the 3D run, suggesting an overall diffusive effect of the asymmetric eddies on the symmetric circulation.
Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in the IPCC Ensemble of Global Coupled Model Simulations
Authors: Kharin Viatcheslav V. , Zwiers Francis W. , Zhang Xuebin , Hegerl Gabriele C. 
Published: April 2007

AbstractTemperature and precipitation extremes and their potential future changes are evaluated in an ensemble of global coupled climate models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) diagnostic exercise for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Climate extremes are expressed in terms of 20-yr return values of annual extremes of near-surface temperature and 24-h precipitation amounts. The simulated changes in extremes are documented for years 2046–65 and 2081–2100 relative to 1981–2000 in experiments with the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B1, A1B, and A2 emission scenarios.Overall, the climate models simulate present-day warm extremes reasonably well on the global scale, as compared to estimates from reanalyses. The model discrepancies in simulating cold extremes are generally larger than those for warm extremes, especially in sea ice–covered areas. Simulated present-day precipitation extremes are plausible in the extratropics, but uncertainties in extreme precipitation in the Tropics are very large, both in the models and the available observationally based datasets.Changes in warm extremes generally follow changes in the mean summertime temperature. Cold extremes warm faster than warm extremes by about 30%–40%, globally averaged. The excessive warming of cold extremes is generally confined to regions where snow and sea ice retreat with global warming. With the exception of northern polar latitudes, relative changes in the intensity of precipitation extremes generally exceed relative changes in annual mean precipitation, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions. Consistent with the increased intensity of precipitation extremes, waiting times for late-twentieth-century extreme precipitation events are reduced almost everywhere, with the exception of a few subtropical regions. The multimodel multiscenario consensus on the projected change in the globally averaged 20-yr return values of annual extremes of 24-h precipitation amounts is that there will be an increase of about 6% with each kelvin of global warming, with the bulk of models simulating values in the range of 4%–10% K−1. The very large intermodel disagreements in the Tropics suggest that some physical processes associated with extreme precipitation are not well represented in models. This reduces confidence in the projected changes in extreme precipitation.
On the Joint Role of Subtropical Atmospheric Variability and Equatorial Subsurface Heat Content Anomalies in Initiating the Onset of ENSO Events
Authors: Anderson Bruce T. 
Published: April 2007

Abstract
Previous research has shown that seasonal mean variations in both the subtropical/extratropical sea level pressures over the central North Pacific and the subsurface heat content anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific are significantly related to the state of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 12–18 months later. Here we find that positive (negative) subsurface temperature anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific during boreal summer/fall, followed by negative (positive) anomalies in the sea level pressure fields over the subtropical central North Pacific during boreal winter, tend to result in positive (negative) mature ENSO events 12–15 months later (i.e., during the following boreal winter). When the intervening sea level pressure anomalies are of the same sign as the preceding heat-content anomalies, the correlation between the heat-content anomalies and the following boreal-winter ENSO state disappears. There is still some relation between the boreal-winter sea level pressure anomalies and the ENSO state the following year when the two precursor patterns are of the same sign; however, the correlation is smaller and the ENSO events tend to be weaker. Additional analysis indicates that the two precursor fields are related to one another; however, the sea level pressure variations contain more unique information about, and provide better predictability of, the state of the following ENSO system than do the heat content anomalies.
A Synoptic Analysis of the Interannual Variability of Winter Cyclone Activity in the Aleutian Low Region
Authors: Zhu Xiaojie , Sun Jilin , Liu Zhengyu , Liu Qinyu , Martin Jonathan E. 
Published: April 2007

Abstract
An analysis of cyclone activity in winter associated with years of strong and weak Aleutian low in the North Pacific is presented. From 1958 to 2004, 10 winters with a strong Aleutian low are defined as the strong years, while 8 winters with a weak Aleutian low are defined as the weak years.
Employing a system-centered Lagrangian method, some characteristics of the cyclone activity in both sets of years are revealed. The cyclone frequency, duration, and intensity are nearly the same in both strong and weak years. The cyclone tracks in the strong years are more zonal than those in the weak years. More intense cyclone events and more large cyclone cases occur in strong years than in weak years and the deepening of cyclones in strong years is stronger than that in weak years. The analyses of geopotential height, wind, stationary Rossby wavenumber, and Eady growth rate index at 500 or 300 hPa reveal that conditions are favorable for more zonal tracks and greater cyclone growth in strong years than in weak years.
An estimation of the relative change of cyclone intensity and the relative change of Aleutian low intensity is made, which shows that the interannual change of cyclone intensity is about 73% of the interannual change of Aleutian low intensity. This result suggests that the evolution of individual cyclones may be a significant driver of changes in the Aleutian low.
Detecting Atlantic MOC Changes in an Ensemble of Climate Change Simulations
Authors: Drijfhout S. S. , Hazeleger W. 
Published: April 2007

Abstract
Signal-to-noise patterns for the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) have been calculated for an ensemble of greenhouse scenario runs. The greenhouse-forced signal has been defined as the linear trend in ensemble-mean MOC, after year 2000. It consists of an overall decrease and shoaling of the MOC, with maximum amplitudes of 10 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) per century. In each member the internal variability is defined as the anomaly with respect to the ensemble-mean signal. The interannual variability of the MOC is dominated by a monopole with a maximum amplitude of 2 Sv at 40°N. This variability appears to be driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), mainly through NAO-induced variations in the wind field.
The signal-to-noise ratio was estimated for various time spans, all starting in 1950 or later. Different noise estimates were made, both with and without intra-annual variability, relevant for episodic and continuous monitoring, respectively, and with and without an estimate of the observational error. Detection of a greenhouse-forced MOC signal on the basis of episodic measurements is impossible before 2055. With continuous monitoring, detection becomes possible after 35 years of observation. The main motivation for calculating signal-to-noise ratios and detection times is their usefulness for local monitoring strategies and detection methods. The two-dimensional pattern of detection times of a MOC change supports the rationale for deploying a sustained monitoring array on at 26°N.
An Analysis of the Potential for Extreme Temperature Change Based on Observations and Model Simulations
Authors: Lynn Barry H. , Healy Richard , Druyan Leonard M. 
Published: April 2007

Abstract
The study analyzes observational climate data for June–August 1977–2004 and simulations of current and future climate scenarios from a nested GCM/regional climate model system to assess the potential for extreme temperature change over the eastern United States. Observational evidence indicates that anomalously warm summers in the eastern United States coincide with anomalously cool eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures, conditions that are conducive to geopotential ridging over the east, less frequent precipitation, and lower accumulated rainfall. The study also found that days following nighttime rain are warmer on average than daytime rain events, emphasizing the importance of the timing of precipitation on the radiation balance. Precipitation frequency and eastern Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies together account for 57% of the 28-yr variance in maximum surface temperature anomalies. Simulation results show the sensitivity of maximum surface air temperature to the moist convection parameterization that is employed, since different schemes produce different diurnal cycles and frequencies of precipitation. The study suggests that, in order to accurately project scenarios of extreme temperature change, models need to realistically simulate changes in the surface energy balance caused by the interannual variation of these precipitation characteristics. The mesoscale model that was realistic in this respect predicted much warmer mean and maximum surface air temperatures for five future summers than the parallel GCM driving simulation.
Validation and Error Analysis of OSCAR Sea Surface Currents
Authors: Johnson Eric S. , Bonjean Fabrice , Lagerloef Gary S. E. , Gunn John T. , Mitchum Gary T. 
Published: April 2007

Abstract
Comparisons of OSCAR satellite-derived sea surface currents with in situ data from moored current meters, drifters, and shipboard current profilers indicate that OSCAR presently provides accurate time means of zonal and meridional currents, and in the near-equatorial region reasonably accurate time variability (correlation = 0.5–0.8) of zonal currents at periods as short as 40 days and meridional wavelengths as short as 8°. At latitudes higher than 10° the zonal current correlation remains respectable, but OSCAR amplitudes diminish unrealistically. Variability of meridional currents is poorly reproduced, with severely diminished amplitudes and reduced correlations relative to those for zonal velocity on the equator. OSCAR’s RMS differences from drifter velocities are very similar to those experienced by the ECCO (Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean) data-assimilating models, but OSCAR generally provides a larger ocean-correlated signal, which enhances its ratio of estimated signal over noise. Several opportunities exist for modest improvements in OSCAR fidelity even with presently available datasets.
Scaling Analysis of the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly in the South China Sea
Authors: Gan Zijun , Yan Youfang , Qi Yiquan 
Published: April 2007

AbstractBased on the data of optimum interpolation sea surface temperature (OISST), the temporal correlations of the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the South China Sea (SCS) are studied by using the rescaled range analysis (R/S) and detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). The results show that the scaling exponents of SSTAs are larger than 0.8. This finding indicates that the SSTAs in the SCS exhibit persistent long-range time correlation of the fluctuations and the interval spreads over a wide period, from about 1 month to 4.5 yr (4∼235 weeks). In addition, the “degree” of the correlations depends very much on the geographic locations: near to the coastal regions, the value is small, while far from the coastline, the value is relatively larger. This means that SSTAs in the central SCS are smoother than those of the coastal regions. The persistence of SST in the SCS may be used as a “minimum skill” to assess the ocean models and to evaluate their performance.
Angular Distribution Models for Top-of-Atmosphere Radiative Flux Estimation from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System Instrument on the Terra Satellite. Part II: Validation
Authors: Loeb Norman G. , Kato Seiji , Loukachine Konstantin , Manalo-Smith Natividad , Doelling David R. 
Published: April 2007

Abstract
Errors in top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument due to uncertainties in radiance-to-flux conversion from CERES Terra angular distribution models (ADMs) are evaluated through a series of consistency tests. These tests show that the overall bias in regional monthly mean shortwave (SW) TOA flux is less than 0.2 W m−2 and the regional RMS error ranges from 0.70 to 1.4 W m−2. In contrast, SW TOA fluxes inferred using theoretical ADMs that assume clouds are plane parallel are overestimated by 3–4 W m−2 and exhibit a strong latitudinal dependence. In the longwave (LW), the bias error ranges from 0.2 to 0.4 W m−2 and regional RMS errors remain smaller than 0.7 W m−2. Global mean albedos derived from ADMs developed during the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) and applied to CERES measurements show a systematic increase with viewing zenith angle of 4%–8%, while albedos from the CERES Terra ADMs show a smaller increase of 1%–2%. The LW fluxes from the ERBE ADMs show a systematic decrease with viewing zenith angle of 2%–2.4%, whereas fluxes from the CERES Terra ADMs remain within 0.7%–0.8% at all angles. Based on several months of multiangle CERES along-track data, the SW TOA flux consistency between nadir- and oblique-viewing zenith angles is generally 5% (&lt;17 W m−2) over land and ocean and 9% (26 W m−2) in polar regions, and LW TOA flux consistency is approximate 3% (7 W m−2) over all surfaces. Based on these results and a theoretically derived conversion between TOA flux consistency and TOA flux error, the best estimate of the error in CERES TOA flux due to the radiance-to-flux conversion is 3% (10 W m−2) in the SW and 1.8% (3–5 W m−2) in the LW. Monthly mean TOA fluxes based on ERBE ADMs are larger than monthly mean TOA fluxes based on CERES Terra ADMs by 1.8 and 1.3 W m−2 in the SW and LW, respectively.