bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Fertility in urban areas of Mexico: Implications for the theory of the demographic transition
Authors: Zarate Alvan O. 
Published: March 2007

Summary
Recent investigations indicate that fertility is not universally associated with urbanization and economic development in the manner predicted by the theory of the demographic transition. It is possible, however, that these investigations only partially test the theory, for the degree of industrialization in urbanareas is rarely taken into account. Two hypotheses are tested based upon Mexican census and vital registration data for 1940–60: (a) urban fertility is inversely related to the proportion of the urban population employed in the secondary sector of the economy and (b) changes in urban fertility are inversely related to changes in the proportion of the urban population employed in the secondary sector of the economy.
At each census date from 1940 to 1960, the association between urban fertility (age-standardized child-woman ratio adjusted for infant mortality) and the percent in the secondary sector is low and positive. In 1960, however, the association is negative (suggesting a possible change in the direction of the association), but city growth rates and the proportion of females married are more closely related to fertility than percent in the secondary sector. Hypothesis a, then, receives little support from the data.
Much the same is true of hypothesis b. The association between changes in urban fertility and changes in the percent in the secondary sector is positive. Moreover, city growth rates and changes in the proportion literate explain more of the variation in fertility change than does the percent in the secondary sector.
In addition, over-all fertility has risen since 1940, and this rise is pronounced in large urban areas. It is suggested that among certain segments of Mexican society, the response to economic development has been an increase rather than a reduction in fertility. It is further suggested that if city growth is indicative of rural-urban migration, the presence of large numbers of rural migrants in urbanareas may help to explain the decreasing size of the urban-rural fertility differential in Mexico.
If this interpretation is correct, the theory of the demographic transition is in need of further modification, specification, and verification.
Some aspects of the use of birth expectations data from sample surveys for population projections
Authors: Siegel Jacob S. , Akers Donald S. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The value of national sample survey data relating to birth expectations for projecting births is reassessed in the light of data limitations pointed out by Ryder and Westoff among others and of the methods of projection used by the United States Bureau of the Census. The annual level of fertility under the cohort-fertility projection method depends on the assumptions regarding completed fertility, about which the available survey data are fairly informative, and on the assumptions regarding the timing of births, about which the survey data tell us very little. Test calculations suggest that Ryder and Westoff have overstated the significance of timing relative to completed family size for the level of future births. We believe that the fall in the annual total fertility rate in the first half of the sixties is to be explained only in part by a general delay in childbearing; a moderate to substantial decrease in completed family size has also occurred. Analysis of the latest set of fertility projections of the Census Bureau also suggests that the assumptions about completed fertility are a much more important determinant of the level of future births than timing, both in the short and long term. Although the available expectations data cannot help in predicting short-term annual changes in fertility, they appear useful for making long-term projections of annual fertility. Expansion of the size, frequency, and content of the sample surveys and incorporation of parity and birth interval into the projection method may improve projections.
Duration of residence and prospective migration: Further evidence
Authors: Land Kenneth C. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
A basic assumption of the Cornell Mobility Model insofar as it is relevant to inter-community migration is that an individual’s propensity to move is a function of, among other things, his length of residence in the community. Parameters of the functional relationship of migration probabilities to duration status are estimated from migration histories for a sample of residents in Monterrey, Mexico, and compared with estimates reported by P. A. Morrison using data from Amsterdam, The Netherlands. In both data sets a negative nonlinear relation of the probability of migrating to duration status, as well as an interaction between age and duration status, is found. Values of parameters describing the relation within age groups differ sufficiently between the two data sets, however, to suggest that further specification of conditions under which a particular form of functional relation will obtain is necessary if the model is to be useful in migration research.
Mortality level, desired family size and population increase: Further variations on a basic model
Authors: Heer David M. , Smith Dean O. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
A series of computer-simulation models relating mortality level to fertility behavior and to rates of natural increase assuming that couples made use of a perfect means of birth control, that they wanted to be highly certain of having at least one son survive to the father’s 65th birthday, and that all women were biologically capable of having the same number of children were reported earlier. A model identical to one presented earlier but assuming women to be of variable fecundity is presented here; the results are quite similar. Also, the results of models assuming that parents want to be highly certain of at least two surviving children regardless of sex are compared with models assuming parental desire to be highly certain of at least one surviving son. At high levels of mortality the rates of natural increase are quite similar. When mortality is at intermediate to medium-low levels, the two-surviving-children model shows a lower rate of natural increase than the surviving-son model. At very low levels of mortality, such as now experienced by the most advanced nations, the two-surviving-children model manifests a higher rate of natural increase than the surviving-son model.
The pattern of mortality change in Latin America
Authors: Arriaga Eduardo E. , Davis Kingsley 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Using 69 new life tables recently made by Arriaga for Latin American countries by stable-population methods, the authors examine the mortality trends for more countries and more periods of history than have previously been available for analysis. For the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, the new tables yield a substantially lower life-expectancy than that shown by previously published life tables; for recent decades the difference is smaller, though in the same direction. As a consequence, the new tables show a speed of mortality decline in Latin America greater than the speed hitherto assumed. When the trend is analyzed in terms of economic development, it appears that the decline was extremely slow in the more backward Latin American countries until around 1930, whereas in the more advanced countries of the region, a more rapid decline had set in before that. After 1930, however, in both groups of countries the pace of decline was faster than ever, and it was virtually the same for both groups, suggesting that after that date public health measures were exerting a strong influence independently of local economic development. This result is confirmed by comparison with the past history of now developed countries; the mortality decline in Latin America after 1930 was much faster than it was historically at the same level in the industrial countries. As compared with other underdeveloped countries today, the unprecedented decline of mortality in Latin America is typical. In most underdeveloped countries, whether in Latin America or elsewhere, mortality change seems increasingly independent of economic improvement and more dependent on the importation of preventive medicine and public health from the industrial countries.
On the dependence of age structure on a sequence of mortality and fertility schedules: An exposition of a cyclical model of population change
Authors: Namboodiri N. Krishnan 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
In this paper a method to investigate the dependence of age structure and growth rate on a given sequence of fertility and mortality schedules under the conditions of unchanging mortality and absence of migration is discussed. The method consists in projecting an arbitrary population classified by age to the ends of successive periods assuming that a given age pattern of mortality will remain without change and that a given sequence of fertility schedules will repeatedly operate on the population in a cyclical fashion. It is shown that after a sufficiently large number of repetitions of the cycle, the shifts in age structure between the ends of successive periods and the changes in the growth of the different age groups from one period to the next show a cyclical pattern. Formulas are derived expressing the above changes in terms of a sequence of k growth multipliers, k being the number of schedules in the fertility sequence, and the survival rates in the mortality schedule. A numerical illustration of the theory is given using fertility data from Finland.
Changes in fertility in Japan by region: 1920–1965
Authors: Tsubouchi Yoshihiro 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Changes in fertility for the 46 prefectures of Japan are traced from 1920 to 1965, using census and vital statistics. During the period, substantial declines were recorded in both marital-fertility levels and the proportions of women of childbearing age who were married. Regional variation is pronounced in the timing of the onset of the decline in marital fertility. Only in the most industrialized districts did marital fertility begin to fall before 1950; thereafter, sharp declines were recorded in all parts of Japan. The marriage proportion, in contrast, was falling rather steadily throughout the islands between 1920 and 1950, after which the proportion stabilized. The decline in overall fertility that occurred before 1950was caused, then, primarily by a reduction in the proportion married; only after 1950 did a decline in marital fertility become a. major factor. The time pattern of change in marital-fertility levels and proportions married for Japan differs from that observed in western Europe, where low proportions married are recorded in the earliest national censuses. Apparently a fall in proportions married in western Europe preceded by one or two centuries the major sustained declines in marital fertility that were part of the so-called demographic transition.
Fertility patterns among religious groups in Canada
Authors: Long Larry H. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The U shape that has been traced out by the crude birth rate in the United States and Canada is well known. Falling birth rates reached a low point in the mid-1930’s; the rate rose to a peak in 1947 and remained high through the 1950’s. In terms of cohorts, completed family size was smallest for women born around 1910, whose childbearing was concentrated in the 1930’s. With data from the 1961 census of Canada, trends in cohort marital fertility by religion are examined. The U pattern appears for both Protestants and Jews. For Catholics, a reversal in the downward trend of family size had not appeared by 1961, although the U pattern can be discerned for some subgroups such as Catholics living in big cities and persons of Irish ancestry. In the United States, however, changes in family size for all three religious groups and both whites and nonwhites follow the U pattern. Religious differentials in family size in Canada have been decreasing, but they remain much larger than either religious or color differentials in the United States, which show no decrease. The distinctive features of Catholic fertility in Canada are most pronounced among the regionallyconcentrated French Canadians, suggesting an interplay of religious, regional, and ethnic influences.
On place utility and the normative allocation of intra-urban migrants
Authors: Brown Lawrence A. , Horton Frank E. , Wittick Robert I. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper arises out of the fact that place utility, a basic factor in behavioral conceptualizations of migration processes, has not been specified in operational terms. This is done here through a model that assigns intraurban migrants to destination areal units within the city, using a normative linear programming framework based on behavioral considerations. Measures of place utilities for each areal unit and of comparative place utilities for each pair-wise permutation of areal units are provided by the shadow prices of the dual of the linear programming model. The primal of the model allocates migrants so as to maximize the household’s gain from migration. This is measured by the increase in its realized aspirations with respect to a residence site, tempered by the search effort involved in acquiring the site. Implementation of the model utilizes both questionnaire and published data from Cedar Rapids, Iowa for the year 1966 to 1967. Conformity between predictions of the model and real-world characteristics is such that it is concluded that the basic form of the model is sound. It is also concluded that the posited relationships between place utility and behavior in searching for and selecting a new residential site are reasonable and can lead to valuable insights into place utility and its functioning in the intra-urban system. Due to some misallocation of migrant flows, however, we further conclude that the model should be revised into a recursive format for future use.
Patterns of residential segregation within a metropolitan ghetto
Authors: Edwards Ozzle L. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The residential segregation of families by income and by stage of the family life cycle within Milwaukee’s black community resembles in both pattern and degree that in the white community. The greater the difference in income, the more dissimilar are the distributions by census tract. Dissimilarity is greater between younger couples without children and older couples with children than between any other pair of family types defined by husband’s age and presence of children. However, segregation by income was substantially greater than by family type in 1960. The bases of selectivity of blacks in“changing” areas of the city, where the proportion black is still relatively low, and of whites in the“suburban” areas adjoining the city are similar. Families in the higher income groups and couples with children are over-represented in these areas. It would appear that given the pressures of limited housing space in the inner core of the black community, given the fact that certain amenities are not available in that area, and given the economic and social barriers which restrict the movement of blacks into the suburbs, the changing areas must function as“suburbs” for the black community.
Family planning and fertility in Tunisia
Authors: Lapham Robert J. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The crude birth rate for the Tunisian population in 1967–68 is estimated to be about ten percent lower than in 1961–65 although the rates are subject to a wide margin of error. Unless the birth registration system is becoming steadily worse or unless the Tunisian population has been decreasing in size, however, the birth rate has fallen; births registered in 1967 or in 1968 were fewer in number than births registered in 1964, 1965, or 1966. The downturn in the crude birth rate occurred shortly after an official national family planning program was inaugurated. Estimates of births averted by contraceptive use, however, suggest that only about one third of the decrease in the rate could be attributed to accomplishments of the program. Occurring at the same time were changes in the age structure which led to smaller numbers of women in the peak reproductive ages and changes in the social status of women which included a sharp reduction in the proportion married in the age group 15–19.
Demographic aspects of lactation and postpartum amenorrhea
Authors: Jain Anrudh K. , Hsu T. C. , Freedman Ronald , Chang M. C. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Interrelations between lactation and post-partum amenorrhea are studied from the reports of about 5,000 married women included in a 1966 Follow-up Survey of Acceptors of an Intrauterine Device (IUD) in Taiwan. The length of post-partum amenorrhea and of breastfeeding are positively associated. On an average, breastfeeding delayed the resumption of menstruation by about 7 months. The association between lactation and amenorrhea is not accounted for by differences in mother’s age, parity, education and her place of residence. A multiple regression analysis suggests that (1) age affects amenorrhea both directly and through lactation, (2) parity has no independent effect on either lactation or amenorrhea, and (3) education and place of residence affect amenorrhea mainly through the cultural variations in the practice of breastfeeding.
Constructing fertility tables for Soviet populations
Authors: Mazur D. Peter 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Because the 1970 Soviet Union census does not provide information on the age structure of men and women separately by sex and according to their ethnic affiliation, the 1959 USSR census data serve as the basis to infer knowledge about ethnic fertility. The model takes into account (1) the total number of births in 1960, estimated from the child-woman ratio in 1959, (2) the age structure of women in 1959, and (3) the assumed pattern of age-specific birth rates structured in terms of the modal age at childbearing and the length of the fertility age span. The results show that Ukrainians among the Slav populations ranked as the lowest with 2.07 children born per woman. Their total fertility contrasts with that of Kazakhs native to Central Asia, who reportedly according to Soviet sources had 7.46 children per woman in 1958–1959, and whose estimated rate is around 8.59 children. Extreme variations appear in the estimates of fertility among nationalities of the Caucasus region, Volga Basin, and to a lesser degree in Siberia. Official Soviet calculations of crude birth rates and age-specific rates for 15 Union Republics in 1967–1968 are transcribed and compared with the estimates for nationalities in 1959–1960. The same theoretical model used to generate the Soviet rates may be adapted under different assumptions to non-Soviet populations in other situations where the data are scanty or incomplete.
Family sizes of children and family sizes of women
Authors: Preston Samuel H. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper demonstrates the relation that obtains between the average family size of women and the average family size of offspring of those women. It estimates the value of these two measures for cohorts of American women aged 45–49 in various years from 1890 to 1970. It shows that children born during the post-war baby boom actually derived from smaller families than those born during the low-fertility 1930’s; that under current patterns a woman would have to bear an average of almost two children fewer than were borne by her mother merely to keep population fertility rates constant from generation to generation; and that average family size for nonwhite children exceeds that for white by 50 percent, although the racial difference in family sizes of women is only 19 percent.
The fall in household size and the rise of the primary individual in the United States
Authors: Kobrin Frances E. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The long-term fall in household size in the United States is discussed within the framework of the aging of the population, continuing as the effects of fertility and mortality decline accumulate. Using distributions of households by size from U.S. census data 1790–1970 and a components of change analysis on primary individuals for 1950–1974, household changes are related to demographic change for the periods 1790–1900, 1900–1950, and 1950–1974. Fertility and mortality declines have unambiguous impact on household size until the increases in primary individuals begin. But these, too, have a theoretically interesting, if indirect relationship to population structure.
Interstate migrants in the United States: Some social-economic differences by type of move
Authors: Miller Ann R. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
U.S. interstate migrants (over a five-year period) are separated into three groups: (a) those leaving state of birth; (b) those returning to state of birth; and (c) those outside state of birth at the beginning of the period and moving on to a third state by the end. Evidence is presented suggesting that the third group is particularly selective of persons with high social and economic status. The findings are linked to certain hypotheses about the changing role and function of migration in a highly developed country where the transition from a rural society based on agriculture has essentially been completed.
Cohort, age, and period effects upon the employment of white females: Evidence for 1957–1968
Authors: Farkas George 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The net effects of birth cohort, age, and period upon the employment of white women, 1957–1968, are estimated by a regression analysis of data from the Social Security Administration’s continuous work history file. By conceptualizing period-specific effects as those associated with the business cycle, we avoid multicollinearity and succeed in performing an analysis faithful to the cohort concerns usual in fertility analysis and to the macroeconomic concerns usual in employment studies. The age pattern of employment and the pattern of intercohort employment change are examined in some detail. The long-run (cohort) trend of increasing white female employment is compared with the estimated (short-run) effects attributable to the business cycle, and it is found that, while both are significant, the former exerted a stronger effect in the 1957–1968 period.
Trends in nonprinted U.S. census and survey data and some research implications
Authors: Taeuber Cynthia Murray 
Published: March 2007

Summary
I have raised a number of issues related to research using computerized data, which must be considered by supplying agencies, libraries, funding agencies, and researchers. Before the 1980 census data are released, researchers should suggest ways in which the data could be made easier and more useful to work with, and data supplying institutions should both respond to and take a lead in finding new approaches that will allow scientists to take full advantage of the opportunities provided by computerized data.
Ethnic Variations in the Relationship between Income and Fertility
Authors: Bean Frank D. , Wood Charles H. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The effects of husband’spotential andrelative incomes on completed fertility, as well as their effects on certain parity progression probabilities, are examined within samples of Anglos, Blacks and Mexican Americans. Relationships are estimated using data from the one-percent 1960 and 1970 U.S. Public Use Samples. The results reveal different patterns of relationship by ethnicity between the measures of income and the measures of fertility. The effects on completed fertility of the income measures are positive for Anglos and negative for Blacks, while in the case of Mexican Americans the effect ofpotential income is negative and that ofrelative income is positive. Income effects on the parity progression probabilities are similar in pattern to those from the analyses using completed fertility, although somewhat different patterns tend to appear at different birth orders, especially among Anglos.