bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Concepts Used in Statistical Business Registers in View of Globalisation and the Information Society
Authors: Nielsen Peter Bøegh , Plovsing Jan 
Published: May 2007

SummaryThe globalisation of markets and the development of the information society are two factors increasingly affecting statistical business registers. The article describes a number of problems caused by the globalisation process and the information society as which kind of business units should be recorded‐enterprises or enterprise groups, how cross‐border ownership, control and cooperation could be identified in the administrative registers, classification of activity in connection with foreign subsidiaries, recording of date of commencement of foreign subsidiaries in a national economy, recording of places of work in the case of teleworking, problems in connection with the recording of individuals involved in teleworking as self‐employed persons and the emergence of virtual enterprises. The article also raises the question of whether there is a need for an international satellite register for (transnational) concerns. Both globalisation and the growing information society therefore place new demands on statistical business registers, and these demands might necessitate mobilisation of additional resources for maintaining and developing the registers.
Bayesian Enhancement of Speech and Audio Signals which can be Modelled as ARMA Processes
Authors: Godsill Simon J. 
Published: May 2007

SummaryIn application areas which involve digitised speech and audio signals, such as coding, digital remastering of old recordings and recognition of speech, it is often desirable to reduce the effects of noise with the aim of enhancing intelligibility and perceived sound quality. We consider the case where noise sources contain non‐Gaussian, impulsive elements superimposed upon a continuous Gaussian background. Such a situation arises in areas such as communications channels, telephony and gramophone recordings where impulsive effects might be caused by electromagnetic interference (lightning strikes), electrical switching noise or defects in recording media, while electrical circuit noise or the combined effect of many distant atmospheric events lead to a continuous Gaussian component.In this paper we discuss the background to this type of noise degradation and describe briefly some existing statistical techniques for noise reduction. We propose new methods for enhancement based upon Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. Signals are modelled as autoregressive moving‐average (ARMA); while noise sources are treated as discrete and continuous mixtures of Gaussian distributions. Results are presented for both real and artificially corrupted data sequences, illustrating the potential of the new methods.
A Review of Nonparametric Time Series Analysis
Authors: Härdle Wolfgang , Lütkepohl Helmut , Chen Rong 
Published: May 2007

SummaryVarious features of a given time series may be analyzed by nonparametric techniques. Generally the characteristic of interest is allowed to have a general form which is approximated increasingly precisely when the sample size goes to infinity. We review nonparametric methods of this type for estimating the spectral density, the conditional mean, higher order conditional moments or conditional densities. Moreover, density estimation with correlated data, bootstrap methods for time series and nonparametric trend analysis are described.
The Language of Chance
Authors: Bellhouse D.R. , Franklin J. 
Published: May 2007

SummaryPrior to 1654, the accepted date of the birth of the probability calculus, the publication of probabilistic calculations was very spotty. The few calculations that have been made are reviewed in David (1962), Coumet (1965), Hald (1990), Kendall (1956), Schneider (1988), and Todhunter (1865). In view of the paucity of the publication record, authors such as Hacking (1975) have argued that modern concepts of probability did not exist before 1654. Other authors have speculated about what held up the development of the probability calculus.We examine the use and context of what in modern usage are now considered to be probabilistic words. These are words such as lots, chance and odds like twenty to one. The examination of the English literature leads one to believe that knowledge of an elementary probability calculus was present in the culture well before 1654. Simple probabilities were calculated probably as early as the time of Chaucer (1340?–1400). Subjective probability statements through the quotation of odds and through the description of fair and false dice were well understood by mid‐sixteenth century.
Effet des Evolutions Techniques et des Changements de la Spécialisation Internationale sur les Marchés du Travail et les Systèmes Productifs: Comment les Statisticiens Pourraient‐ils Relever les Défis?
Authors: Malinvaud Edmond 
Published: May 2007

SummaryThinking about future needs and about what can reasonably be expected as feasible in the next century, how should producers of statistics direct their activity? Increasing complexity and diversity of needs leads us to recognize that, between producers and users of statistics, a mediating role is more and more often played by analysts and research workers who are requesting above all good data bases. Concerning infrastructures for statistics on productive systems, coordination between accountants and statisticians will be crucial, as well as adaptation of the constraints which, because of excessive worry about confidentiality, could prevent establishment or use of data bases. In an increasingly competitive world, where private firms will sell analyses and informations, particularly on very large enterprises, the public statistical service will remain essential in all respects. Intangible investments, innovations and many aspects of the internal organization of firms will create formidable challenges. Information on employment and labour markets has been much developed during the past decades; but on a few specific and difficult issues progress is still needed: lifecyles in the working‐age population, acquisition of knowledge and skills in formal education and on the job, matching labour supplies and demands, and so on. Particular attention will have to be given to the lower levels of cultural and professional skills.
New Pedagogy and New Content: The Case of Statistics
Authors: Moore David S. 
Published: May 2007

SummaryStatistical education now takes place in a new social context. It is influenced by a movement to reform the teaching of the mathematical sciences in general. At the same time, the changing nature of our discipline demands revised content for introductory instruction, and technology strongly influences both what we teach and how we teach. The case for substantial change in statistics instruction is built on strong synergies between content, pedagogy, and technology. Statisticians who teach beginners should become more familiar with research on teaching and learning and with changes in educational technology. The spirit of contemporary introductions to statistics should be very different from the traditional emphasis on lectures and on probability and inference.
Administrative Records and Surveys as Basis for Statistics on International Labour Migration
Authors: Hoffmann Eivind 
Published: May 2007

SummaryThis paper discusses possible sources for statistics to be used for describing and analysing the number, structure, situation, development and impact of migrant workers. The discussion is focused on key, intrinsic features of the different sources, important for the understanding of their strengths and weaknesses, and draws the reader's attention to features which may tend to undermine the quality of the statistics produced as well as ways in which the impact of such features can be evaluated and, if possible, reduced. This discussion thereby provides concrete illustrations of many of the methodological issues referred to in (Hoffmann, 1995).The paper is organized around three key groups of migrant workers:

Persons who are arriving in a country to work there, i.e. the inflow of foreign workers;
Persons who are leaving their country to find work abroad, i.e. the outllow of migrant workers
Stock of foreign workers in the country.

Definitions of these groups are given in section 2. Sections 3 to 5 review, for each key group, main possible sources of statistics and the extent to which they can cover the group and identify separately important sub‐groups. The discussion in each section distinguishes between administrative registrations and statistical surveys, and deals with the capacity of a source to provide estimates of the size of the group, and whether it can provide estimates of the amount of change in the group over time, or at least indications of the direction of such changes. Section 6 outlines problems related to other data quality dimensions, such as frequency and timeliness of the statistics as well as the validity, reliability and consistency of the registration of variables used to describe migrant workers and where they come from. Section 7 presents strategies for the development of statistics on migrant workers based on two model scenarios for “countries” of different geographic circumstances and institutional capacities. Summary recommendations on how to organize cooperation, for the production of statistics on migrant workers, between the relevant agencies and between them and the potential users are proposed in the concluding section. The overall conclusion is that trying to piece together a coherent statistical picture of any of the above key groups is similar to trying to put together a large puzzle based on photographs of a rapidly changing reality, with important pieces missing and many of the available photographs out of focus.
I.J. Bienaymé [1796–1878]: Criticality, Inequality, and Internationalization*
Authors: Seneta E. 
Published: May 2007

SummaryTwo striking contributions of Bienaymé to mathematical statistics: (1) a completely correct statemet of the Criticality Theorem for simple branching processes in 1845; and (2) the derivation of the Bienaymé‐Chebyshev Inequality, are revisited on the 200th anniversary of his birth. We use writings and archival materials available since the note of Heyde & Seneta (1972) to present a fuller biographical picture. Bienaymé's connections with Buniakovsky and Chebyshev are elucidated, and this role in furthering Chebyshev's international contacts outlined. A concluding section illuminates Bienaymé's understanding of the linear regression of one random variable on another in an actuarial context of random shocks.
Estimation in Surveys Using Conditional Inclusion Probabilities: Simple Random Sampling
Authors: Tillé Yves 
Published: May 2007

SummaryIn survey sampling, auxiliary information on the population is often available. The aim of this paper is to develop a method which allows one to take into account such auxiliary information at the estimation stage by means of conditional bias adjustment. The basic idea is to attempt to construct a conditionally unbiased estimator. Four estimators that have a small conditional bias with respect to a statistic are proposed. It is shown that many of the estimators used in the literature in the case of simple random sampling can be obtained by using this estimation principle. The problem of simple random sampling with replacement, poststratification, and adjustment of a 2 x 2 dimensional contingency table to marginal totals are discussed in the conditional framework. Finally it is shown that the regression estimator can be viewed as an approximation of an application of the conditional principle.
Random Sets: Models and Statistics
Authors: Stoyan Dietrich 
Published: May 2007

SummaryThis paper surveys aspects of the theory of random closed sets, focussing on issues of practical and current interest. First, some historical remarks on this part of probability theory are made, where the important role of Georges Matheron is emphasized. Then, fundamental characteristics of the distribution of random closed sets are introduced. The very important Boolean model serves as an example for discussing mathematical and statistical problems. A number of further models is then considered, namely excursion sets of random fields, the system of edges of the Poisson Voronoi tessellation and various random systems of non‐overlapping spheres. Finally, some ideas of particle statistics are presented, including some models of random compact sets.
Inferring Gene Ancestry: Estimating Gene Descent
Authors: Thompson Elizabeth 
Published: May 2007

SummarySegregation indicators provide a fundamental description of the outcomes of Mendelian segregation. This description facilitates algorithms for computation of probabilities of gene identity patterns among individuals in a specified genealogical structure. Such gene identity patterns determine in turn the pattern of observable trait similarities among relatives. Conversely, patterns of gene identity are the parameters of genealogical relationship that can be estimated from trait data on individuals. Where data on large numbers of individuals or at large numbers of genetic loci are to be analyzed, Markov chain Monte Carlo realizations of underlying Mendelian segregation indicators can be used to provide Monte Carlo estimates of likelihoods for gene ancestry or of genetic model parameters. Genealogical information in genetic data is bounded by the information in patterns of genomic identity by descent. A different form of Monte Carlo likelihood can be used to assess this information.
Statistical Analysis of Product Warranty Data*
Authors: Lawless J.F. 
Published: May 2007

SummaryData bases regarding warranty claims for manufactured products record claims experience and information about concomitant factors. If constructed and maintained properly, warranty data bases may be used for a variety of purposes that include the prediction of future claims, the comparison of claims experience for different groups of products, the estimation of field reliability, and the identification of opportunities for quality and reliability improvement. This paper reviews some methods of analyzing warranty data and of addressing these objectives. Some extensions of previous work and suggestions for future development are included. Examples involving warranty claims for automobiles and regrigerators are considered.
Three Sides of Smoothing: Categorical Data Smoothing, Nonparametric Regression, and Density Estimation
Authors: Simonoff Jeffrey S. 
Published: May 2007

SummaryThe past forty years have seen a great deal of research into the construction and properties of nonparametric estimates of smooth functions. This research has focused primarily on two sides of the smoothing problem: nonparametric regression and density estimation. Theoretical results for these two situations are similar, and multivariate density estimation was an early justification for the Nadaraya‐Watson kernel regression estimator.A third, less well‐explored, strand of applications of smoothing is to the estimation of probabilities in categorical data. In this paper the position of categorical data smoothing as a bridge between nonparametric regression and density estimation is explored. Nonparametric regression provides a paradigm for the construction of effective categorical smoothing estimates, and use of an appropriate likelihood function yields cell probability estimates with many desirable properties. Such estimates can be used to construct regression estimates when one or more of the categorical variables are viewed as response variables. They also lead naturally to the construction of well‐behaved density estimates using local or penalized likelihood estimation, which can then be used in a regression context. Several real data sets are used to illustrate these points.
Imputation: Methods, Simulation Experiments and Practical Examples
Authors: Nordholt Eric Schulte 
Published: May 2007

SummaryWhen conducting surveys, two kinds of nonresponse may cause incomplete data files: unit nonresponse (complete nonresponse) and item nonresponse (partial nonresponse). The selectivity of the unit nonresponse is often corrected for. Various imputation techniques can be used for the missing values because of item nonresponse. Several of these imputation techniques are discussed in this report. One is the hot deck imputation. This paper describes two simulation experiments of the hot deck method. In the first study, data are randomly generated, and various percentages of missing values are then non‐randomly‘added’to the data. The hot deck method is used to reconstruct the data in this Monte Carlo experiment. The performance of the method is evaluated for the means, standard deviations, and correlation coefficients and compared with the available case method. In the second study, the quality of an imputation method is studied by running a simulation experiment. A selection of the data of the Dutch Housing Demand Survey is perturbed by leaving out specific values on a variable. Again hot deck imputations are used to reconstruct the data. The imputations are then compared with the true values. In both experiments the conclusion is that the hot deck method generally performs better than the available case method. This paper also deals with the questions which variables should be imputed and what the duration of the imputation process is. Finally the theory is illustrated by the imputation approaches of the Dutch Housing Demand Survey, the European Community Household Panel Survey (ECHP) and the new Dutch Structure of Earnings Survey (SES). These examples illustrate the levels of missing data that can be experienced in such surveys and the practical problems associated with choosing an appropriate imputation strategy for key items from each survey.
On the Application of Conditional Independence to Ordinal Data
Authors: Wermuth Nanny , Cox D.R. 
Published: May 2007

SummaryA special log linear parameterization is described for contingency tables which exploits prior knowledge that an ordinal scale of the variables is involved. It is helpful, in particular, in guiding the possible merging of adjacent levels of variables and may simplify interpretation if higher‐order interactions are present. Several sets of data are discussed to illustrate the types of interpretation that can be achieved. The simple structure of the maximum likelihood estimates is derived by use of Lagrange multipliers.
Combining Data from Surveys and Administrative Record Systems. The Norwegian Experience
Authors: Thomsen Ib , Holmøy Ann Marit Kleive 
Published: May 2007

SummaryAt Statistics Norway administrative data have been extensively used in order to improve the quality of survey data. Various techniques have been used to reduce sampling variance and/or to reduce the effects of non‐response. In the present article some of the most commonly used methods are being presented, and based on empirical rather than theoretical evaluations, we give our conclusions concerning their potentials and limitations.
Assessment and Statistics Education: Current Challenges and Directions
Authors: Garfield Joan B. , Gal Iddo 
Published: May 2007

SummaryThe interaction between new curricular goals for students and alternative methods of assessing student learning is described. Suggestions are offered for teachers of statistics who wish to re‐examine their classroom assessment practices in light of these changes. Examples are offered of some innovative assessment approaches that have been used in introductory statistics courses, and current challenges to statistics educators are described.
Evolution of Statistics in India
Authors: Ghosh J.K. , Maiti P. , Rao T.J. , Sinha B.K. 
Published: May 2007

SummaryThis is a brief history of the evolution of official and academic Statistics in India which focuses mainly on the period 1930 to 1960 but traces its origins in antiquity and recent history. We also comment on how Statistics has continued to evolve since the 1960's. This is a history of both institutions and people, who built and shaped them, and of ideas.
Are We Measuring Up …? Questions on the Performance of National Statistical Systems
Authors: de Vries Willem 
Published: May 2007

SummaryThis article proposes a systematic approach to evaluating the performance of national statistical systems. Its starting point are the so‐called Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics, which were adopted by the United Nations some time ago. The aim is to translate the principles into operational terms and concrete questions about ‘how we are measuring up’.
Using Statistics and Statistical Thinking to Improve Organisational Performance
Authors: Dransfield S. B. , Fisher N. I. , Vogel N. J. 
Published: May 2007

SummaryA systematic approach to measuring organisational performance is fundamental to the pursuit of business excellence. As such, the area of organisational performance measurement, and its use of data and analysis to inform business decisions, affords statisticians a potentially high value‐adding opportunity. To be effective in this area, statisticians need to appreciate the differing requirements for statistical information in various management zones of an enterprise.This paper describes a strategy that seeks to link measurement to all facets of organisational performance, particularly to desired business outcomes, and also to mesh measurement with process improvement in a natural way. The use of statistics and statistical thinking is then discussed in this context, with particular focus on the opportunity for statisticians to have a key role at the top decision‐making level of the organisation. We argue that the role requires skills in both advanced technical statistical modelling and analysis, and in statistical thinking. It also requires a preparedness to form an appreciation of the business and management imperatives faced by the leaders of an enterprise, and a willingness to work from this basis.
Developing a Census Data System in China
Authors: Shen Jianfa , Chu David , Zhang Qingpu , Zhang Weimin 
Published: May 2007

SummaryChina has conducted four population censuses since 1949. A large amount of important information about population, education, employment, migration and urbanization was collected in the most recent 1990 census. This paper will examine main features and key issues of the Chinese population census and the census data. Some fundamental considerations in building a computerized census data system and concerning the ways in which a system might be developed will be discussed. Themain objective and features of the on‐going Population GIS of China project will also be examined.
Methods for Default and Robust Bayesian Model Comparison: the Fractional Bayes Factor Approach
Authors: De Santis Fulvio , Spezzaferri Fulvio 
Published: May 2007

SummaryIn the Bayesian approach to model selection and hypothesis testing, the Bayes factor plays a central role. However, the Bayes factor is very sensitive to prior distributions of parameters. This is a problem especially in the presence of weak prior information on the parameters of the models. The most radical consequence of this fact is that the Bayes factor is undetermined when improper priors are used. Nonetheless, extending the non‐informative approach of Bayesian analysis to model selection/testing procedures is important both from a theoretical and an applied viewpoint. The need to develop automatic and robust methods for model comparison has led to the introduction of several alternative Bayes factors. In this paper we review one of these methods: the fractional Bayes factor (O'Hagan, 1995). We discuss general properties of the method, such as consistency and coherence. Furthermore, in addition to the original, essentially asymptotic justifications of the fractional Bayes factor, we provide further finite‐sample motivations for its use. Connections and comparisons to other automatic methods are discussed and several issues of robustness with respect to priors and data are considered. Finally, we focus on some open problems in the fractional Bayes factor approach, and outline some possible answers and directions for future research.