bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Movement toward stability as a fundamental principle of population dynamics
Authors: Schoen Robert , Kim Young J. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Although convergence to stability is typically a complex and irregular process, the Kullback distance provides a measure that moves consistently to 0 as a population becomes stable. The roots of the Kullback distance are in information theory. but it is a meaningful demographic quantity. It reflects a population’s log momentum, or the amount of growth built into a population’s nonstable age distribution. The rate at which the Kullback distance moves toward 0 is neither constant nor monotonic. At any point in time, however, it decreases by the covariance between a population’s age-specific growth rates and its log momentum. Although the present findings are couched in terms of movement toward stability, they are generally applicable because they relate to the behavior of any population at any instant. It is a fundamental principle of population dynamics that a population is always moving toward the stable population implied by its prevailing fertility and mortality rates, and that the extent of its movement is determined by the covariance between its age-specific growth and its log momentum.
Fertility decline in Taiwan: A study using parity progression ratios
Authors: Feeney Griffith 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Taiwan’s decline in fertility is studied by using period parity progression ratios. Levels of marriage and motherhood are found to have been high and essentially constant though the late 1980s, suggesting that the decline has been due almost entirely to declines in second and higher order-births. Families with three or more children play an important role in maintaining the current level of fertility. The level of fertility would be even lower without these families. They contributed more than one-half child per woman to the total fertility rate during most of the 1980s. Total fertility rates computed from the period parity progression ratios indicate a substantially higher level of fertility than the conventional total fertility rate; they remained above or at replacement level through 1988. A formal demographic analysis suggests that the conventional total fertility rate has been depressed by shifts in age at childbearing.
Family structure and dependency: Early transitions to female household headship
Authors: McLanahan Sara S. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This article looks at the intergenerational effects of family structure on family formation and economic dependency. Three explanations are examined: thee conomic-deprivation, socialization, and family-stress hypotheses. Daughters living in single parent families at some point during adolescence are more likely to be come household heads and to go on welfare than offspring of two-parent families. Differences in the incomes of one- and two-parent families can account for up to 25 percent of the difference in offspring behaviors. None of the hypotheses, however, provides a complete explanation of family structure effects. The analysis is based on data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and uses event-history analysis to estimate transitions into female headship and economic dependence.
Undocumented Mexican immigrants and the earnings of other workers in the United States
Authors: Bean Frank D. , Lowell B. Lindsay , Taylor Lowell J. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This article examines the effects of undocumented Mexican immigrants on the earnings of other workers in geographical labor markets in the Southwest. The number of undocumented Mexicans included in the 1980 census in southwestern SMSAs is estimated. We then estimate the parameters of three specifications of a generalized Leontief production function with various demographic groups as substitutable factors. The statistically significant effects of undocumented Mexicans on the earnings of other groups are positive, but of slight magnitude. Legal immigrants’ effects on native white earnings, however, are small and negative. The results are consistent with the possibility that undocumented Mexican immigrants’ jobs complement those of other workers. The implications for public policy concerns about the effects of illegal Mexican immigration are discussed.
Components of change in migration and destination-propensity rates for metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas: 1935–1980
Authors: Wilson Franklin D. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This article focuses on components of change in out-migration and destination-propensity rates of metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas. The results indicate that changes in subgroup-specific rates were the driving force behind the changing patterns between and within these two areas. Composition effects played a secondary role, mainly counteracting the negative impact of changing rates. Although the rate of change in out-migration from metropolitan areas has been reduced and out-migration from nonmetropolitan areas declined during the most recent period, the propensity to select metropolitan areas increased over the period studied. Finally, rate-specific changes vary by age and education, indicating a change in migration’s impact on population composition at origin and destination.
The replacement effect and comparisons of per capita income across countries: A short note
Authors: Mason Andrew 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This article is intended to clarify two aspects of Leibenstein’s replacement effect that have not been adequately addressed in print. First, formal analysis of the replacement effect demonstrates that it is not determined by the quality of entering and departing workers alone but, rather, by the entire age schedule of labor quality. Second, a simple model is used to demonstrate the absence of welfare implications associated with the replacement effect and to quantify the magnitude of the replacement effect.
Measuring components of family planning program effort
Authors: Entwisle Barbara 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The measures of family planning program effort developed by Lapham and Mauldin have played a key role in family planning program analysis, but surprisingly little is known about them. This article investigates the measurement of family planning program effort based on data reflecting conditions circa 1982 in 100 developing countries. Using confirmatory factor analytic techniques, it tests some hypotheses implicit in the work of Mauldin and Lapham. Since the data do not fully support these hypotheses, an alternative conceptualization is proposed that consists of eight rather than four components. The discussion focuses on the expanded set of components and includes an assessment of the empirical indicators associated with them.
U.S. births and limit cycle Models
Authors: Wachter Kenneth W. , Lee Ronald D. 
Published: March 2007

AbstractLee’s (1974) formal demographic feedback models summarize the implications for births and age-structure of neo-Malthusian theories of baby booms such as those of Easterlin. For some parameter values, such models imply sustained cycles, so-called “limit cycles,” in births. Frauenthal and Swick recently reestimated a continuous-age version of Lee’s basic cohort model with U.S. series and, contrary to Lee’s original findings, concluded that “limit cycles oscillations have been occurring in U.S. births.” This article disputes their conclusion, ascribing it to an inconsistency in detrending procedures. Furthermore, it corrects Lee’s original conclusion by showing that his alternative period labor-force feedback model, estimated from U.S. series, leads to cycles of implausibly long period. This article thus reopens the question of whether any feedback model could account for the observed cycles in U.S. births.
Postcensal estimates of household income distributions
Authors: Fonseca Lois , Tayman Jeff 
Published: March 2007

AbstractThis article develops and evaluates a method for deriving postcensal estimates of household income distributions for counties. A modified lognormal probability curve is used as a model of income distribution. The function is closely related to the classical lognormal model, but it contains a nonlinear component in its derivation. Simulated postcensal estimates of household income distributions are compared with 1980 census data for the counties in California. The results indicate that the modified lognormal curve approximates observed income distributions well and produces reliable postcensal estimates for areas with a wide variety of median income levels and numbers of households.
Work shifts of full-time dual-earner couples: Patterns and contrasts by sex of spouse
Authors: Presser Harriet B. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Work shifts of full-time dual-earner couples are analyzed with data from the May 1980 U.S. Current Population Survey. Over 20 percent of husbands and about 12 percent of wives work other than a regular day shift. Variations in shift work status by sex of spouse are examined according to job, race, and life-cycle characteristics. A multivariate analysis indicates that a different composite offactors affects the shift work status of husbands and wives. Given the wide variation in the prevalence of non-day employment within major groups and the sex segregation of the labor force, we look at detailed occupations and industries to the extent possible.
Noncustodial Fathers’ Ability to Pay Child Support
Authors: Garfinkel Irwin , Oellerich Donald 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This article explores the extent to which noncustodial fathers can pay child support by estimating the income of noncustodial fathers and coupling these estimates with simulations of alternative normative standards for how much absent parents should be expected to contribute to the costs of rearing their children. The study indicates that the amount that is currently paid in child support ($6.8 billion in 1983) is far below the amount that should be paid under the various standards—from $24 billion to $29 billion.
Unmarried Motherhood: Recent Trends, Composition, and Black–White Differences
Authors: Bumpass Larry , McLanahan Sara 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The National Survey of Family Growth (1982) is used to examine the extent to which racial differences in premarital birth rates can be explained by differences in parents’ socioeconomic status, family structure, and residential characteristics. The findings document a large diversity in premarital births within both populations. Black women from high-risk backgrounds are three times more likely to have a premarital birth than black women from low-risk backgrounds. Racial differences in premarital births arise because (1) black women are more likely to come from high-risk backgrounds and (2) black women from low-risk backgrounds are more likely to have a premarital birth than white women with similar characteristics. There are similar rates of premarital births by race among persons from high-risk backgrounds.
The Income–Fertility Relationship: Effect of the Net Price of a Child
Authors: Borg Mary O’Malley 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This article examines the relationship between income and completed family size in empirical fertility models. The relationship, which is hypothesized to be positive, often is negative in empirical studies. This perverse result is thought to occur because of the many correlations between income and other factors that affect fertility. In this research, these other factors—such as the net price of a child, the opportunity cost of the wife’s time, and supply factors—are statistically controlled, and the income effect is positive and significant. When the net price of a child is not controlled, however, the income effect becomes negative and significant.
Stability and Change in an Urban Homeless Population
Authors: Lee Barrett A. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Few studies have produced the over-time observational data needed to draw valid conclusions about changes in urban homeless populations during the 1980s. One place for which such data exist is Nashville, Tennessee. An ongoing series of enumerations lends little support to Nashvillians’ perception that the number of homeless in their city is growing rapidly. Enumeration results also (1) contradict expectations regarding the rise of “new homeless” groups and (2) show two types of spatial redistribution —from indoor to outdoor and core to peripheral locations—to be under way. The applicability of the enumeration methodology to other communities is discussed, as are the discrepancies between purported and measured demographic changes in homelessness.
Changes in the retirement process among older men in the United States: 1972–1980
Authors: Hayward Mark D. , Grady William R. , McLaughlin Steven D. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Recent changes in older men’s retirement patterns are investigated for the United States. The results show that labor force incumbents, particularly those in secondary occupations, experienced increases in the volume of both retirement and reentry to the labor force. In addition, although working life expectancy remained relatively stable across occupations, men in secondary occupations spent increasingly greater portions of their work lives in postretirement jobs. Finally, large increases in nonworking life expectancy occurred because of substantial increases in life expectancy. In several occupations, however, declines in working life expectancy were major contributors to increases in nonworking life expectancy.
Occupational careers and mortality of elderly men
Authors: Moore David E. , Hayward Mark D. 
Published: March 2007

AbstractThis article presents findings from an analysis of occupational differentials in mortality among a cohort of males aged 55 years and older in the United States for the period 1966–1983. Using the National Longitudinal Survey of Mature Men, we construct event histories for 3,080 respondents who reach the exact age of 55. The dynamics that characterize socioeconomic differentials in mortality are analyzed by evaluating the differential effects of occupation over the career cycle. Maximum likelihood estimates of hazard-model parameters show that the mortality of current or last occupation differssubstantially from that of longest occupation, controlling for education, income, health status, and other sociodemographic factors. In particular, the rate of mortality is reduced by the substantive complexity of the longest occupation while social skills and physical and environmental demands of the latest occupation lower mortality.
Estimating transition probabilities of age misstatement
Authors: Bhat P. N. Mari 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This article outlines a method of estimating probabilities of gross transfers from one age to another due to misreporting of age. An essential ingredient in the computation is the information on the true age structure of the population, which may be estimated by using generalized stable population relationships. The method consists essentially of iteratively adjusting rows and columns of an initial guess matrix so that the application of the resultant transition matrix to the true age distribution produces the recorded age distribution. The initial guess matrix can be either empirically based or theoretically derived. The method is illustrated by using data on India, 1971–1981. The application reveals that in India, although the tendency to exaggerate age is strong at adult ages, the bias does not increase appreciably at older ages, as is commonly believed.
Fertility desires and fertility: Hers, his, and theirs
Authors: Thomson Elizabeth , McDonald Elaine , Bumpass Larry L. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The relationship between desired and achieved fertility may be misspecified by excluding husbands’ fertility desires or by confounding effects of shared desires with the resolution of conflicting desires. Using couple data from the classic Princeton Fertility Surveys, we find relatively large husband effects on fertility outcomes as well as unique effects of spousal disagreement. Wives and husbands were equally likely to achieve fertility desires, and disagreeing couples experienced fertility rates midway between couples who wanted the same smaller or larger number of children. These conditions do not hold, however, when we include willingness to delay births for economic mobility as part of the measure of fertility desires. Among couples who both wanted a third child, only husbands’ willingness to delay births had significant negative effects on birth rates.
Living arrangements and the transition to adulthood
Authors: Goldscheider Frances Kobrin , DaVanzo Julie 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The sharp decline with age in the percent of young adults who live with their parents is usually attributed to other concurrent life-cycle changes in the “transition to adulthood.” We investigate this presumption using data tracking high school seniors seven years after graduation. Although marriage and military service strongly reduce residential dependence on parents, other life-cycle changes such as employment and parenthood are only weakly associated with living arrangements and often affect returning home more than leaving. “Leaving home” is often independent of other transition events and should be studied directly to understand recent patterns of family change.
Neighborhood revitalization and racial change: The case of Washington, D.C.
Authors: Lee Barrett A. , Spain Daphne , Umberson Debra J. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Using 1970 and 1980 census block data for Washington, D.C., we test several hypotheses about the racial residential consequences of neighborhood revitalization. Areas located in the revitalizing core of the city have a) become whiter in both absolute and proportional terms, consistent with the displacement hypothesis, and b) experienced substantial though difficult to interpret shifts in segregation. The types of racial changes occurring in the core are not apparent elsewhere in Washington, and tract data for 1940–1980 show the core changes to be temporally as well as spatially specific. Because different racial residential trends have accompanied revitalization in other cities, we treat Washington as an exceptional case that helps specify the conditions under which conventional wisdom about neighborhood change is least applicable.
Calculation of age-specific fertility schedules from tabulations of parity in two censuses
Authors: Coale Ansley J. , John A. Meredith , Richards Toni 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The mathematics of stable populations recently has been generalized to cover populations with time-varying fertility and mortality by a modification incorporating the sum of age-varying growth rates in place of the fixed growth rate of a stable population. Equations that characterize nonstable populations apply to any cohort-like phenomenon with a measurable property that cumulates gains or losses through time. In particular, the equations fit the relation between a population’s average parity at a given age and age-specific fertility rates previously experienced at lower ages. Techniques devised to derive an intercensal life table from single-year age distributions in two censuses are adapted to estimate accurate intercensal fertility schedules from distributions of parity by age of woman in two censuses. Birth-order specific fertility schedules are also estimated.
Practical aspects on the estimation of the parameters in Coale’s model for marital fertility
Authors: Broström Göran 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper demonstrates the estimation of the parameters in the Coale model for marital fertility by the maximum likelihood method, under the assumption of a simple Poisson process model. The necessary calculations are easily performed in the statistical computer program package GLIM, and the necessary commands are noted. Without access to GLIM, or any equivalent, it is still possible to fit the model approximately by the use of any weighted finear regression program. In both cases, goodness of fit tests are available.
Hypersegregation in U.S. Metropolitan Areas: Black and Hispanic Segregation Along Five Dimensions
Authors: Massey Douglas S. , Denton Nancy A. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Residential segregation has traditionally been measured by using the index of dissimilarity and, more recently, the P* exposure index. These indices, however, measure only two of five potential dimensions of segregation and, by themselves, understate the degree of black segregation in U.S. society. Compared with Hispanics, not only are blacks more segregated on any single dimension of residential segregation, they are also likely to be segregated on all five dimensions simultaneously, which never occurs for Hispanics. Moreover, in a significant subset of large urban areas, blacks experience extreme segregation on all dimensions, a pattern we call hypersegregation. This finding is upheld and reinforced by a multivariate analysis. We conclude that blacks occupy a unique and distinctly disadvantaged position in the U.S. urban environment.
A formal theory for male-preferring stopping rules of childbearing: sex differences in birth order and in the number of siblings
Authors: Yamaguchi Kazuo 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Through mathematical deductions, this article shows certain macro-demographic consequences of individually employed male-preferring stopping rules in childbearing. It is shown that male-preferring stopping rules generate differences between boys and girls in birth order and in the number of siblings. Two situations are considered regarding the latent probability of having a boy: population homogeneity and population heterogeneity. The sex difference in the number of siblings exists even under population homogeneity, and the difference remains constant when each couple employs a distinct alternative rule. On the other hand, the sex difference in the birth order exists only under population heterogeneity. Substantive implications of these findings are discussed.
Demographic consequences of the 1984–1985 Ethiopian famine
Authors: Kidane Asmerom 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This article analyzes demographic responses to the 1984–1985 Ethiopian famine and compares them with Bongaarts and Cain’s (1982) hypothesized responses. After briefly describing the data collection, I estimate the age distribution and the age-specific mortality and fertility rates of Ethiopian famine victims in a resettlement area and compare these with mortality estimates for the 1972–1973 Bangladesh famine and with fertility estimates from the 1981 Ethiopian demographic survey. The results show that the mortality rate among Ethiopian famine victims was about seven times higher than the rate among the Bangladesh victims and that the Ethiopian famine-related mortality was general and not a function of household socioeconomic variables. The data also show a 26 percent lower total fertility rate among famine victims.
Infant mortality decline in Malaysia, 1946–1975: The roles of changes in variables and changes in the structure of relationships
Authors: DaVanzo Julie , Habicht Jean-Pierre 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Individual-level retrospective data from the Malaysian Family Life Survey are used to examine why the infant mortality rate (IMR) has declined rapidly in Malaysia since World War II. Substantial increases in mothers’ education and improvements in water and sanitation have contributed. However, breastfeeding reductions have kept the IMR from declining as rapidly as it would have otherwise. The detrimental effects of reduced breastfeeding more than offset the beneficial effects of water and sanitation improvements. The majority of the IMR decline, however, is not explained by changes in the variables considered here, or in their relationships with infant mortality.