bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Regional Variations in Cyclical Employment
Authors: Howland M I 
Published: October 2006

In this paper the author develops and tests a model of regional responses to national business-cycles. The model divides cyclical decline in each state into two sectors: a basic sector and a nonbasic sector. The industrial mix, capital—labor ratio, age of capital stock, level of unemployment insurance benefits, labor shortage, and extent of labor-force unionization of a state are hypothesized to influence the response to national recessions by the economy of a state. Employment decline in the nonbasic sector of the economy of a state is a function of employment decline in basic industries and is transmitted through a short-run multiplier. The model is tested on data from five post World War 2 recessions between 1950 and 1975. The findings indicate that industry mix at the two-digit Standard Industrial Code level explains 36% of the across-state variation in cyclical employment. The results also indicate that an old capital-stock, a nonunion labor force, and generous unemployment insurance benefits promote cyclical stability in state economies.
Urban Growth Models Revisited: Cities as Self-Organizing Systems
Authors: Marchand B 
Published: October 2006

Spatial patterns seem to be very stable in Los Angeles, the most volatile of all US metropolises. Processes suggested by the classical growth models to explain these patterns have ceased to be applicable over the last fifty years or so, and have probably never played any important role in Los Angeles. A new conceptual model is proposed to integrate the rapidity of urban change and the persistence of spatial patterns. Urban forms and their content should be considered as independent of each other. Urban change appears as a dialectical process, whereas the spatial order of a city seems to be a geometrical and topological phenomenon with a logic of its own. Urban forms persist because a city is a self-organizing system. Such systems, analyzed by biologists such as Atlan, are able to absorb random perturbation while conserving their order. This model is applied to some examples in the USA, Europe, and Algeria.
The Cyclic Process Decision-Heuristic: An Application in Time-Allocation Modeling
Authors: Tonn B E 
Published: October 2006

Models of human behavior can be evaluated against a number of criteria. For example, does the model incorporate important exogenous variables, and are the predictions of the model specific enough for policy analysis? In this paper, the author addresses the decision-heuristic component of human behavior modeling. The term ‘heuristic’ refers to the process individuals follow when making a decision, and a heuristic, in the modeling sense, provides the framework for deriving mathematical expressions which link an individual's decisions to behavioral goals, exogenous factors, and other decisions. The author presents the cyclic process decision-heuristic and its application in the derivation of a mathematical model of individual time-allocation behavior in two-spouse households. The heuristic incorporates specific hypotheses concerning human motivation. A mathematical model is derived for the heuristic, which is a step-by-step process. The author presents results of applying the model to explain variation in time-budget data collected by the Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, 1975–1976.
Research Policy and Review 8. Party Political Approaches to Rural Conservation in Britain
Authors: Brotherton D I 
Published: October 2006

The three main political groupings in Britain (the Conservative Party, the Labour Party, and the Liberal/Social Democratic Party Alliance), the two nationalist parties (Plaid Cymru and the Scottish National Party), and the Ecology Party are now unanimous in accepting conservation as a legitimate policy goal. But they are far from unanimous when it comes to proposing the means by which conservation goals should be achieved. These party divisions are particularly marked in relation to the most critical rural conservation issue of the day, that is, the extent to which agriculture and forestry should be controlled to benefit conservation interests. This paper is a review of the relevant policies of the six main political parties. It identifies in particular those that advocate an extension of planning controls and whether to farming but not forestry, to forestry but not farming, or to both these activities. This produces interesting contrasts from which, by their willingness to implement controls that favour conservation, it is tempting to judge the parties' conservation credentials. But, although all six parties view conservation as a desirable goal, it is, for all but one, subordinate to more important aims and ideals. As such, it may not be surprising that conservation policies appear to reflect party ideology and interest rather than conservation commitment.
Research Policy and Review 25. Modeling Land Use and Transportation: An Interpretive Review for Growth Areas
Authors: Berechman J , Small K A 
Published: October 2006

Urban growth is taking new forms in recently urbanized or formerly suburban areas, characterized by low density, heavy dependence on automobile transportation, and multiple activity centers. In order to understand better such ‘contemporary urban areas’, researchers need land-use models that realistically capture the key features of such areas and that can handle detailed data sets. We review the literature on large-scale land-use modeling with this objective in mind. Characterizing the known models along several dimensions describing purpose, conceptual basis, mathematical content, and level of detail, we select models that are representative of the range of approaches taken. Six of these are reviewed in detail, and four others are discussed more briefly. We find that the existing literature forces one to choose between tractability and suitability for contemporary urban areas. The key omission in the tractable models is economies of agglomeration that would help explain the emergence of subcenters. Most tractable models also lack a dynamic structure suitable for handling rapid disequilibrium growth. Models that contain these two features are suitable for broad-brush computer simulation, but they cannot be calibrated with real disaggregated land-use data. This conclusion leads to some brief suggestions on directions for future work.
Dynamics of Urban Systems: General Trends and Dutch Experiences
Authors: van den Berg L , van der Meer J 
Published: October 2006

In this paper we present a general theory of urban development, which we then compare with the developments in the urban system of the Netherlands, for the years 1970 to 1986. We propose that urban dynamics are started by and are continually influenced by fundamental changes in technology, social values, demography, and politics. Each factor will be more significant in one stage of urban development than in others, and therefore a four stage cycle is produced: stage 1, industrialisation occurs; stage 2, the service sector and transport facilities grow; stage 3, there is a greater appreciation of the environment; stage 4, the society tends to an ‘information society’. It appears that the Dutch urban system is in stage 3 of these developments: deconcentration of population peaked in the early 1970s and has since declined (under the influence of economic and demographic changes). Dynamics slowed under poor economic conditions, but by the late 1980s, deconcentration increased with the economic recovery. The Dutch system is progressing towards stage 4, with possible revitalisation of large towns by means of new policy.
Advertising Assessment—Myth or Reality?
Authors: Beaumont C D , Geary K , Halliburton C , Clifford D , Rivers R 
Published: October 2006

In this paper the topic of advertising assessment is revisited, given the widespread availability of low-cost microcomputer modelling developments. It is recognised that when regression analysis became popular in the 1970s with the advent of the mainframe computer, much hype and little marketing benefit ensued. It is argued that simply speeding up the old practices of the 1970s, which rightly fell from favour, will provide no benefit to the advertising industry. ‘What is new’, the ‘benefits’ of advertising assessment, and where it is applicable are described. It is suggested that not only does technology facilitate data analysis, but also, critically, modelling methodology itself has changed, with a greater ability to remain close to one's data. As a consequence, it is argued that improved advertising decisions can only be made when the other elements of the marketing mix are formally taken into account. The methodology described in the paper has been developed and successfully applied in a number of sectors for different UK clients of Coopers and Lybrand, and Collett Dickenson and Pearce.
Household Modelling and Forecasting—Dynamic Approaches with Use of Linked Census Data
Authors: Murphy M 
Published: October 2006

Household projections produced by official agencies usually use the headship rate method, based on the proportion of people designated as ‘head of household’ (or ‘reference person’) in various sex, age, and family categories. Reasons are discussed why this method has been criticised in recent years: the headship method does not incorporate any behavioural assumptions or dynamic aspects; only the characteristics of the head are included explicitly; and the concept of ‘head’ is thought to be incompatible with more egalitarian household roles. The advantages of dynamic models are discussed, and a number of alternative dynamic models of household formation and dissolution are presented. The data source used is the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys 1% longitudinal study, which contains linked information on 500000 people in the 1971 and 1981 England and Wales Censuses of Population.
Aggregate Dynamic Economic—Ecological Models for Sustainable Development
Authors: van den Bergh J C J M , Nijkamp P 
Published: October 2006

The aim of the paper is to formulate a general integrated aggregate dynamic model for sustainable development, that will be both simple in structure and able to deal with the main objectives, processes, and constraints applying to sustainable development in closed economic — ecological systems. General characteristics of models to be used for sustainable development are discussed. It turns out that such models do not exist. Short critical descriptions are given of representative analytical models that have arisen in theories on economic growth with renewable and nonrenewable resources, and pollution, or that provide an interesting alternative view of economic — environmental interactions. These models appear to provide incomplete descriptions of economic, ecological, and interactive processes. To clarify the logic and special features of the general model, three issues are addressed. First, a general ecological model is proposed that is consistent with a macroeconomic system in terms of geographical coverage. Such a general model would have to be able to deal with a specific set of general functions and characteristics of ecological systems. Second, the meaning of some economic, ecological, and physical concepts for modelling is discussed. Third, the potential for inclusion of sustainable development conditions is examined. Next, the general structure of an economic — ecological model for sustainable development is presented. It includes the general ecological model, descriptions of economic activities and dynamics, material and economic balances, constraints, and behavioural feedback mechanisms related to sustainable development conditions. It is shown how concern for the well-being of future generations can be included. Simulation is used to obtain insight into the behaviour of the system under different policies and scenarios. Several environmental policies can be studied, including waste treatment, recycling, research and development, and environmental cleaning. Resource use strategies may include sustainable use and specific division of extraction between renewable and nonrenewable resources. Resource-use and waste-emission strategies may be based on variable degrees of concern for future generations. The relevance of this model is that it allows for a study of the medium-term and long-term dynamic economic and environmental consequences of sustainable development conditions and variable degrees of concern for future generations. Its purpose is not to investigate the conditions under which the entire system will (n)ever breakdown.
The Relative Utility of the Central Postcode Directory and Pinpoint Address Code in Applications of Geographical Information Systems
Authors: Gatrell A C , Dunn C E , Boyle P J 
Published: October 2006

Considerable use is made of postcoded data in GIS (geographical information system) research. This is especially true of applications in geodemographics and epidemiology, but the work described here is of relevance in any attempt to attach specific locational identifiers to unit postcodes in Britain. Conventionally, unit postcodes are given an explicit spatial reference by means of the Central Postcode Directory (CPD), in which 100-metre grid references are assigned to each postcode. However, in a major undertaking, the company Pinpoint Analysis Ltd is digitising every property, both domestic and commercial, in the country. This gives a 1 metre grid reference for each such property; from the set of all addresses in a unit postcode a centroid may be obtained. In this paper the locational referencing provided by the ‘Pinpoint Address Code’ is compared with that of the CPD. The empirical work draws on data for Camden in London, but reference is made to earlier work in Whitehaven. We make some observations on the value of using point data in GIS (notably epidemiological) research, rather than relying on data for essentially arbitrary areal units.
Chain Image and Store-Choice Modeling: The Effects of Income and Race
Authors: Fotheringham A S , Trew R 
Published: October 2006

Addressed in this paper is the lack of understanding of the extent to which the image of a store can affect store selection and of the extent to which this image varies across market segments. The subject of the analysis is the choice of supermarkets for major grocery shopping, and image is here measured by the chain to which a supermarket belongs. Evidence is presented through the use of descriptive statistics from a sample of consumers and through several store-choice model calibrations that chain image is an important determinant of store choice. In the particular data set employed, chain image is at least as important as store size and store competition. Evidence is presented on the effects of peoples' income and race on their store selection. Differences are found in chain image both across income groups and across racial groups. Differences are also reported in distance deterrence across income groups, although in the opposite direction to common belief. It appears that low-income consumers are willing to travel further for grocery shopping, ceteris paribus, probably to take advantage of lower prices. Higher income consumers may be unwilling to spend the extra time involved to shop at the stores with the lowest prices and therefore give up low prices for the sake of convenience. The general conclusion from the results presented here is that intrinsic differences in store-choice behavior exist across different groups of consumers and that analyzing store location accurately demands knowledge of such differences.
Theorising Differences in Patriarchy
Authors: Duncan S 
Published: October 2006

The concept of patriarchy gives a necessary causal basis to the study of gender divisions and gender inequality. However, it has often been employed in a deterministic way, where variation is unexplained and agency is underplayed. This paper reviews Walby's reconceptualisation of six dimensions of patriarchy, based on a realist view of causation, which attempts to reintroduce empirical complexity and institutional variation into the concept. The author suggests that this reconceptualisation does not go far enough. Similarly, models of gendered welfare states, though descriptively quite detailed, are analytically weak. It is suggested that an integration of Walby's theory of patriarchy with Scandinavian ideas of the gender contract provides the best means of conceptualising difference in gender divisions.
Representation, Attitudes, and Behavior: Analyzing the Spatial Dimensions of Community Response to Mental Disability
Authors: Takahashi L M 
Published: October 2006

Anecdotal evidence indicates that community opposition has become intensified and more focused on human service facilities over the past decade. The irrational, selfish, and exclusionary tendencies often associated with the NIMBY (not in my backyard) syndrome do not reflect the complexity inherent in local responses to controversial human services, such as mental health care facilities. In this paper I instead develop a framework incorporating the broader structure of social relations to explain local response to mental disability. In this framework I posit that marginalized representations of mental disability based in a continuum of stigma lead to rejecting attitudes and behavior.The first national survey of attitudes toward controversial human services conducted in the USA ( N = 1326) provides the data for exploring the spatial dimensions of resident acceptance and rejection. Results of a multivariate analysis indicate that the spatial dimensions of community response are linked to both the structure of attitude dimensions and the spatial location of respondents. The national survey points to three principal attitude types concerning mental disability: social restrictiveness, liberal support, and a NIMBY-type response. The rejection types of attitudes (social restrictiveness and NIMBY) tend to be reflective of attitudes in the Midwest and South, whereas the acceptance attitude type (liberal support) is more reflective of the Pacific region. Regional variations are also important in describing behavioral differences (for example, whether respondents oppose facility siting or not). This analysis provides opportunities for understanding the stigmatization of mental disability, and provides clues about the possible levers which might be used in specific places to promote a more positive representation of mentally disabled individuals.
Assessing ‘Institutional Thickness’ in the Local Context: A Comparison of Cardiff and Sheffield
Authors: Raco M 
Published: October 2006

Urban managers have been faced by growing problems in recent decades. Social and economic inequalities within cities have steadily grown, whereas shifting global economic relations have led to the polarisation of more and less successful local (urban) economies. At the same time many nation-states, such as Britain, have opted for greater deregulation and a resurgence of neoliberal strategies of governance, which have had the effect of disempowering local communities and managers just at the time when they would appear to be most vulnerable to the forces of change. In this context a range of authors have argued that the way forward for city authorities is through developing an institutionally based set of local networks and alliances in which a range of interests are represented politically and through which wider global economic forces can be better ‘held down’ at the local level. This ‘institutional thickness’ varies from city to city and this paper, in comparing Cardiff and Sheffield as two case studies, addresses the ways in which institutional relations have developed in those cities and the degree to which they represent effective forms of inclusive local political mobilisation and wider economic leverage. I argue that processes of ‘institutional thickness’ in cities does not necessarily create inclusive forms of local political representation and that institutional presence and interaction and the local policymaking processes they are part of, may in fact reinforce existing local social, economic, and political relations and divisions rather than leading to the encouragement of local corporatist relations.
Tax Reform in the United Kingdom and Ireland
Authors: Sandford C T 
Published: October 2006

In this paper the content of tax changes and the methods of tax policymaking, in the United Kingdom and in Ireland are compared and contrasted. Since 1965 there have been at least six new mainstream taxes introduced in each country, with much similarity of content, which in part, is a result of a common tax-heritage, of common membership of the EEC and of similar external pressures. The methods of tax policymaking reveal rather more differences, not least because of the differing source of the division between the main parties; but even here, similarities are marked. In both, the party stage has been crucial and policymaking in government has been bedevilled by rash commitments in opposition. In both countries, tax policy has tended to become more open, with the United Kingdom offering rather more scope for Parliamentary input to the policymaking process. In both, pressure groups have exercised a significant influence on the outcome of tax proposals. Whilst both countries have had special ad hoc committees on taxation, their influence on policy has been much less than the quality of their reports deserved. The new taxes have, themselves, been subject to frequent change and, in some cases, to abolition; the fruits of two decades of feverish activity in tax policymaking are pitifully small.
The Political Economy of Deficit Spending: A Cross Comparison of Industrialized Democracies, 1955–90
Authors: Hahm S D 
Published: October 2006

The postwar deficit experiences of nine industrialized democracies are analyzed. The relative importance of three of the primary influences on a country's deficit which have been suggested in the literature: (1) the state of the country's economy, (2) the ‘left – right’ ideology of the party in power, and (3) the strength of the party in power (as advanced by Roubini and Sachs) are examined. The author also introduces and tests the importance of an additional potential influence based on institutional structure in which presidential, ‘stable’ parliamentary, and ‘unstable’ parliamentary systems are seen to provide different incentives regarding the deficit for key political actors. The arguments are tested on a pooled time-series cross-sectional data set involving two presidential systems (France and the United States), four relatively stable parliamentary systems (Canada, Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom), and three relatively unstable parliamentary systems (Denmark, Italy, and the Netherlands). The findings include: (a) strong effects of the state of a nation's economy on its deficit; (b) little systematic relationship between the ideology of the party in power and its deficit; and (c) the observation that increased control of the government leads to lower deficits in unstable parliamentary systems but larger deficits in presidential systems, with stable parliamentary systems serving as an intermediate case. The findings are compared both with the author's theoretical refinement and with recent theoretical and empirical work by Roubini and Sachs.