bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
The role of macroeconometric models in forecasting and policy analysis in the united states
Authors: McNees Stephen K. 
Published: July 2007

AbstractThis article stresses how little is known about the quality, particularly the relative quality, of macroeconometric models. Most economists make a strict distinction between the quality of a model per se and the accuracy of solutions based on that model. While this distinction is valid, it leaves unanswered how to compare the‘validity’of conditional models. The standard test, the accuracy of ex post simulations, is not definitive when models with differing degrees of exogeneity are compared. In addition, it is extremely difficult to estimate the relative quantitative importance of conceptual problems of models, such as parameter instability across‘policy regimes’In light of the difficulty in comparisons of conditional macroeconometric models, many model‐builders and users assume that the best models are those that have been used to make the most accurate forecasts are those made with the best models. Forecasting experience indicates that forecasters using macroeconometric models have produced more accurate macroeconomic forecasts than either naive or sophisticated unconditional statistical models. It also suggests that judgementally adjusted forecasts have been more accurate than model‐based forecasts generated mechanically. The influence of econometrically‐based forecasts is now so pervasive that it is difficult to find examples of‘purely judgemental’forecasts.
Forecasting with an econometric model: The issue of judgemental adjustment
Authors: Young Richard M. 
Published: July 2007

AbstractThe paper outlines the current state of forecasting with an econometric model. After briefly distinguishing econometric techniques from other statistical approaches and arguing the advantages of this approach the paper concentrates on the issue of judgemental adjustments to models for forecasting purposes. Two types of adjustment are distinguished and the conditions under which each is justified are stated. Guidance in the use of adjustment is offered through a review of considerations in an actual forecasting situation.
The role of forecasting in corporate strategy: The xerox experience
Authors: Dino Richard N. , Riley Donald E. , Yatrakis Pan G. 
Published: July 2007

AbstractThis paper presents the system of analysis used by the Xerox Corporation to relate the external environment to company decisions. The system is sophisticated and elaborate, comes to grips with such issues as product forecasting, market monitoring, activity monitoring, materials and labour cost analysis, and product price analysis. In addition, the system examines the longer‐term issues associated with corporate strategy, with the more recent initiatives directed toward the strategic focusThe Xerox case illustrates very well how externally provided forecasts of economic environments, both at home and abroad, can be used as inputs to a variety of econometric products to serve the individual corporation. The challenge in this work is to build the bridges from the external forces to the critical company decisions. That is a task which requires sophisticated tools and skilled professionals to accomplish. This case study shows what can be done.
Aided and unaided decision making: Improving intuitive judgement
Authors: Sjöberg Lennart 
Published: July 2007

AbstractIntuitive judgement forms the basis of decision making both by experts, in professional settings, and by people in everyday life. Psychologists have studied the rationality of intuitive judgements. In this paper three approaches to decision making will be discussed: unqualified rationalism, qualified rationalism and irrationalism. The first approach holds that man is essentially rational, the second that serious cognitive biases exist, and the third that thinking is strongly influenced by non‐cognitive sources of distortion, i.e. emotions and motives. Evidence on judgement is reviewed and found to support the last two approaches. Various ways of improving judgements, as suggested by the three basic viewpoints, are then presented.
Requirements for effective use of graphical methods in interactive forecasting
Authors: Polhemus Neil W. 
Published: July 2007

AbstractThe construction of forecasts using interactive data analysis systems is greatly aided by the availability of graphical procedures. Data exploration, model identification and estimation, and interpretation of final forecasts are made considerably easier by the visual relay of information. This article discusses some recent developments in time series graphics designed to assist in the forecasting process. A discussion of requirerients for effective use of graphics in interactive forecasting is included as illustrated through an application of the Box‐Jenkins methodology. Illustrations are included from the STATGRAPHICS system, a prototype implementation in APL.
Practitioners'Forum. Forecasting and Planning the Jeddah Air Traffic with a Mini Model
Authors: Karasek Mirek 
Published: July 2007

AbstractA simple model of particular socio‐economic and technical environment proves useful in forecasting and planning. The specific application forecasts air traffic at King Abdulaziz International Airport (KAIA) in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, through a number of explanatory variablesThe purpose of the model is to explain and forecast the change in growth rates of passenger flow through the airport. The dynamics of passenger flow are linked to the dynamics of the oil‐based economy of Saudi Arabia and the global economic and business environment.
Forecasts and expectations: Some evidence for the U.K.
Authors: Holden K. , Peel D. A. 
Published: July 2007

AbstractForecasts from econometric models have been given a lot of publicity in the U.K. This paper examines the performance of five major models in forecasting inflation and the rate of growth. Two types of forecast are considered: the annual pre‐budget ones and a quarterly series. It is suggested that public forecasts provide a cheap method of implementing economically rational expectations.
An exploration of some practical issues in the use of quantitative forecasting models
Authors: Lawrence M. J. 
Published: July 2007

AbstractExtrapolative forecasting models have been available for many years and as most organizations have the need to regularly develop forecasts one might anticipate the widespread use of these models. The evidence in Australia indicates that computer based forecasting systems are not being widely used and in fact a number of established systems have been discarded, with the issue of forecast accuracy often being mentioned as a problem area. Two experiments are carried out to examine this issue by comparing judgemental and quantitative forecasts. Other problem areas mentioned as contributing to the abandonment of forecasting systems include the difficulty of manually reviewing the computer forecasts and the effort required to carefully massage the forecast database to remove extraordinary events.
Familiarity, application, and performance of sales forecasting techniques
Authors: Mentzer John T. , Cox James E. 
Published: July 2007

AbstractThis article presents the results of a survey to determine the degree of familiarity and usage, accuracy obtained, and evaluation of different forecasting techniques. It was found that regression analysis, subjective techniques, exponential smoothing, and moving average were well known and used for specific situations. Accuracy was relatively high for aggregate short range forecasts, but decreased for longer range and product level forecasts.
Awareness and use of forecasting techniques in british industry
Authors: Sparkes John R. , McHugh A. K. 
Published: July 2007

AbstractThe paper summarizes results of a mail survey of the use of formal forecasting techniques in British manufacturing companies. It appraises the state of awareness of particular techniques and the extent to which they are used in various functional applications. The extent to which the forecasts generated by the techniques influence company action is assessed; and the reasons for the non‐use of particular techniques examined. The paper concludes that although an increasing number of companies appreciate the importance of forecasting, the methods used are predominantly naïve and few companies are taking steps to improve the situation through using alternative techniques or through computerizing established techniques.
Privatization, regulation and development: Some questions of training strategy
Authors: Collins Paul , Wallis Malcolm 
Published: July 2007

AbstractIn the current debate over the role of the public sector and its effective and efficient management, too little attention has been paid to the training implications of the various policy options. These include privatization as well as public enterprise performance improvement and rehabilitation. Third world training institutions are only just beginning to respond to the new tasks of re‐equipping public sector managers to enable them to play a more ‘enabling’ or ‘facilitating’ role vis‐à‐vis the private and parastatal sectors. Accordingly, this article suggests a number of major elements that need go into any national training effort to strengthen the government‐enterprise interface, including some of the curricular content, needs for case and teaching materials, developing training methods, the role of research, possibilities of a regional approach and the role of the international donor community.
District planning and local government in Kenya
Authors: Wallis Malcolm 
Published: July 2007

AbstractIn many ways the autonomy of local government in Kenya has declined in the last twenty years. After reviewing the various tendencies towards centralization which can be observed and looking at some of the reforms which have occurred, the current district planning approach, known as the District Focus for Rural Development Strategy, is analysed in order to explore the roles played within it by local government. Policy documents and other official statements are discussed, as are the attitudes of political and administrative leaders. Whilst the new strategy is supposed to bring about greater decentralization, it has led to a continuing reduction of local government autonomy especially for the county councils. However, pessimistic conclusions can not be easily drawn. Local government is not likely to be abolished, the new approach may enable it to play a more effective planning role—even if a less autonomous one—and there are other forms of local participation (especially through community development) which partly compensate for the erosion of formal local government.
The dilemma between mobilization and control in international aid the case of the Norwegian Sao Hill Sawmill project in Tanzania
Authors: Gran Thorvald 
Published: July 2007

AbstractHow do specific aid projects in Tanzania strike a balance between control and mobilization, between efficient implementation of a well defined project and the mobilization of a local learning and competence building process? Can the same project organization do both efficiently, or does the control‐mobilization relation represent a dilemma? And how do specific definitions of the balance between control and mobilization within projects affect state building locally? These questions are investigated in the context of the Sao Hill Sawmill (SHS) in Tanzania. The relationship between Tanzanian and Norwegian authorities is looked at (a) in the planning of the Mill, (b) in the early evaluations of it, and (c) in its first three years of operations. An attempt is made to show that decision models are both personally ‘constructed’ and systematically reproduced by institutions and that the distinction between control‐ and mobilization‐focused models is of importance for how projects affect local institution building. Whether persons were recruited to the project from private or public institutions in Norway influenced their understanding of what the project was about. The data suggest that this simple distinction is significant for understanding how projects relate to local institutions and development processes. The material indicates that experts from Norwegian public institutions supported a more mobilization‐oriented definition of the project, with the possibility of integrating it unobtrusively into existing local institutions. However, a surprise finding was that top‐level administration in Tanzania supported the private participants more control‐oriented definition.
The science of Javanese management: Organizational alignment in an Indonesian development programme
Authors: Useem Michael , Setti Louis , Pincus Jonathan 
Published: July 2007

AbstractStudies of business organizations reveal the importance of combining two elements for mobilizing and aligning action in large organizations: informed decision making and contingent incentives. A national development programme in Indonesia tested both elements under exceptionally demanding conditions. The Government of Indonesia ended its subsidy of agricultural pesticides in the late 1980s, and it sought to prepare its large but poorly educated farming population in the use of ecologically based integrated pest management (IPM) methods. With a staff of 2,000 trainers by the early 1990s and a curriculum emphasizing information analysis and management decisions, the Indonesian national IPM programme created a capacity to train as many as 50,000 farmers per growing season. Field studies, trainee surveys and other evidence reveal that, consistent with national programme objectives, (1) pesticide applications were reduced by more than 60 per cent; (2) pesticide use depended more on field decisions, less on prescriptions; (3) small landholders were as likely as large holders to master IPM techniques; (4) IPM‐trained farmers experienced no loss in rice yield and significant savings in pesticide expense; (5) IPM‐trained farmers sought to share the new information and skills with other farmers. Together, informed decision making and contingent incentives provided the organizational foundation for a sustainable national change in agricultural methods.
Policy research in sub‐Saharan Africa: An exploration
Authors: Juma Calestous , Clark Norman 
Published: July 2007

AbstractThis article argues that a major problem with contemporary policy analysis is that it has difficulty coming to terms with complex economic change. This in turn is probably influenced by a view of socioeconomic systems that still harks back to the classical mechanics of the nineteenth century and a relatively stable world in which social action could reasonably be informed by disinterested scientific research of a traditional kind. By means of a review of some recent policy analysis literature and by focusing on issues relating to development issues in contemporary Africa, the article maintains that a more realistic approach would recognize the evolutionary nature of modern socioeconomic systems and base policy interventions accordingly. In particular, there is a need to see ‘policy’ as a process of complex change requiring innovative institutional contexts and novel managerial capabilities.
Electron‐Positron Pair Creation from Vacuum Induced by Variable Electric Field
Authors: Marinov M. S. , Popov V. S. 
Published: July 2007

AbstractProblem is considered of spontaneous creation of electron‐positron paris from the vacuum induced by external electric field, that is homogeneous and depends on time in an arbitrary way. The Heisenberg equations of motion are obtained for the creation‐annihilation operators. The solution is a linear canonical transformation. The problem is reduced to a set of differential equations for the second‐order matrices determining this transformation. A consequence of the CP symmetry of the Dirac equation with an external electric field is that the e+e− pair is created from the vacuum in a state with total spin 1. The case when the variating electric field conserves its direction, is considered in more detail. In this case the equations are much simplified and may be reduced to the Riccati equation or to problem of oscillator with variable frequency, so the problem is equivalent to the one‐dimensional quantal problem of a barrier penetration. Two approximate methods to calculate the pair creation probabilities are discussed: the quasiclassical approach and the antiadiabatical method, applicable for sharp variations of the external field. Numerical estimates are obtained for the number of e+e− pairs produced by the field E(t) = E cos ωt. Group‐theoretical aspects of the problem are also considered.
Über die Bedeutung der Fouriertransformation für die optische Abbildung
Authors: Hofmann C. 
Published: July 2007

AbstractEs wird gezeigt, daß die Fouriertransformation in guter Näherung die drei grundliegenden Aspekte der realen optischen Abbildung Beugung (exakt im Fraunhoferfall), Kohärenz des Lichtes und die Übertragungseigenschaften des optischen Systems beschreibt. Eine optische Abbildung kann in die beiden Schritte der Beugung am Objekt, die mathematisch durch die Fouriertransformation der Objektamplitudenverteilung in die Pupillenebene modelliert werden kann, und der Filterung und Beugung des Objektspektrums an der Pupille, die durch die inverse Fouriertransformation des beschnittenen Beugungsspektrums der Objektamplitudenverteilung von der Pupillen‐ in die Bildebene beschrieben werden kann, zerlegt werden. Die Anwendungsmöglichkeit dieser beiden Fourierschritte auf verschiedene optische Systeme wie Fouriertransformationsoptik, holographische Speicherung, Mikroskopoptik und Photoobjektive wird auf der Grundlage der Fouriertheorie der partiell kohärenten Abbildung diskutiert.
Collective Quantum Fields
Authors: Kleinert H. 
Published: July 2007

AbstractA general quantum field theory of collective excitations is presented for many‐body systems. Lagrangians involving fundamental particles are transformed to collective fields exactly via Feynman path integrals. Graphically, this amounts to a complete resummation of the perturbation series without the danger of double counting. Plasma and pairing effects provide special examples corresponding to mutually complementary transformations. Bose and Fermi systems can be treated on equal footing. The methods are illustrated by giving the exact collective Lagrangian for the BCS model and approximate ones for type II superconductors and 3He.
On the Grand Canonical Gibbs Ensemble in Euclidean Field Theory
Authors: Gielerak R. 
Published: July 2007

AbstractBy generalizing the integration by parts formula on the function space, the isomorphism between the general class of selfinteracting Euclidean, Bose fields and classical gases is proven in a nonperturbative way. Rigorous, non‐perturbative derivations of the Mayer equations and Bogoliubov‐Born‐Kirkwood‐Grenn‐Yvone hierarchical equations are given. Expansions of several physical quantities are discussed in terms of the linear graphs, for some general classes of Euclidean fields.
Superspinors and Graded Lorentz Groups in Three, Four and Five Dimensions
Authors: Lukierski J. , Nowicki A. 
Published: July 2007

AbstractThree superalgebras osp(1; 2; F) (F = R, C, H) and corresponding three supergroups are considered. The transformation laws of spinors with anticommuting components for 3‐dimensional (O(2, 1) ≃ Sp(2; R)), 4‐dimensional (O(3, 1) ≃ Sp(2, C)) and 5‐dimensional (O(4, 1) ≃ Sp(2; H)) Lorentz group are extended in a supersymmetric way by introducing nonlinear realizations of the supergroups OSp(1, 2; F). The affine Grassmann spinors in all three cases are obtained by suitable “flat” limit of the nonlinear realization. Different gradings and different contractions of osp(1,2; F) (F = R, C, H) superalgebras are considered.
The dynamic histogram chart
Authors: Holmes Donald S. , Mergen A. Erhan 
Published: July 2007

AbstractThis paper discusses a dynamic histogram control chart which combines some ideas of histograms, X charts, zone charts and chi‐square charts. The chart is easy to use, easy to understand, and has quick response times. Another feature is that it does not require normal data as X charts and zone charts do. The chart is especially useful for controlling processes with low data accumulation rates such as chemical processes or for controlling processes involving short runs such as job shops.
Mapping quality assurance systems: A methodology
Authors: Crossfield R. T. , Dale B. G. 
Published: July 2007

AbstractThis paper reports on a method (quality management activity planning—Q‐MAP) for mapping quality assurance procedures, information flows and responsibilities. A comparison is made of the ICAM definition (IDEF) method and Q‐MAP as to their suitability for mapping quality assurance systems and fostering the advancement of the quality improvement process. The achievements arising from the use of Q‐MAP at Garrett Automotive Limited are examined. It is pointed out that the involvement of employees in the preparation of Q‐MAP diagrams has led to improvements in processes and procedures by eliminating differences between actual and documented work practices and that a wider cross‐section of employees are now familiar with the company's quality assurance system.
An analysis of the field failure of passive and active components
Authors: Campbell D. S. , Hayes J. A. 
Published: July 2007

AbstractThis paper briefly describes work that is in hand on establishing and running an organization for the collection and analysis of field failure data on passive and active components in electronic equipment. Data have now been collected from all the sources for nearly two and a half years as of June 1989 and the results obtained are presented. Analysis covers a wide range of electronic component categories.
Temperature–humidity induced mechanisms in plastic encapsulated bipolar transistors
Authors: Matthäi Günter 
Published: July 2007

AbstractIn this article the disadvantages of well‐known models for temperature–humidity induced failure mechanisms in plastic encapsulated microelectronic devices are shown. It is necessary to restrict the validity of these models. The advantage of bipolar transistors is that the failure mechanisms can be separated very easily. The most significant properties of polymers, plastication and glass transition, and also the diffusion of moisture will be described. The hydrolysis of chlorides is considered with respect to processes of polymeric physics and it is shown that chlorides form electrolytic distances and etchant inside the transistors. In this case the microelectronic devices change their electric characteristics and sometimes the electrical connection is interrupted. The model shows that the aggressiveness of the resin is affected by temperature and humidity and also how this aggressiveness affects the transistor. This model combines the mechanisms in the resin with the reactions of the devices. It provides a good basis for improving the reliability of microelectronic devices and for designing proper reliability tests.
Quality assurance of welds in ship structures
Authors: Stavrakakis G. S. 
Published: July 2007

AbstractThis paper describes procedures for predicting the growth rate of fatigue cracks in ship structure welds under sea‐wave loading as well as the stress corrosion cracking behaviour of steel in marine structures. A computer program which can be applied to assess the residual life‐time and to estimate the probability of failure of marine structures under wave action is presented. The main objective of applying this program is the development of an optimal inspection and maintenance policy for marine structures. Moreover, the presented computer program is of value to insurance companies in order to assess the safety level of a marine structure and consequently to estimate their financial risk.