bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
A Simulation Analysis of Tour-Shift Construction Procedures
Authors: Mabert Vincent A. , Watts Charles A. 
Published: November 2008

Work force scheduling research over the last few years has concentrated on the shift scheduling problem in service oriented firms (telephone operators, postal employees, bank encoders, etc.). In all cases, the authors were primarily interested in the evaluating procedures (optimal and heuristic) to determine the appropriate number of workers to be assigned to the available set of work schedules to meet fluctuating work volumes. However, more attention should be given to how the available shift schedules were defined (start times, durations, etc.) and their impact on maintaining good productivity levels. This paper analyzes the impact of six different approaches in defining the available weekly tour-shift schedules. Tests are conducted to evaluate the performance of the six approaches using operating data from Ohio National Bank for the check proof and encoding activity. The results of this study provide some useful managerial insights into the issues of effectively staffing personnel on a weekly basis. First, restrictive employment policies/customs can substantially increase costs. Second, structured procedures can be used to identify and build good employment schedules for a weekly assignment. And third, the structured procedures presented here provide useful cost and productivity information for evaluating various staffing decisions, and weighing these decisions with other intangible factors such as employee morale and turnover.
Using Simulation for Leadership and Management Research: Through the Looking Glass
Authors: McCall Morgan W. , Lombardo Michael M. 
Published: November 2008

A case might be made that we have not learned very much about leadership in complex organizations. One factor contributing to this lack might be the narrowness of the traditional approach to leadership. By defining leadership as an interpersonal influence process, a research literature has been generated that focuses almost exclusively on leader-subordinate relationships, two or so styles, and group outcomes. Such a focus does not ask questions about the environmental and organizational context of leadership and the impacts it may have. A second factor contributing to narrowness might be an overdependence on one methodology for studying leadership, namely the survey. One might argue that direct observation, or at least multiple methodologies, could be usefully applied to understanding leadership. It was with these conceptual and methodological concerns in mind that a simulation was designed for use in leadership research. Its goals were both simple and complex: to mirror as realistically as possible the demands of a typical managerial job, to have real managers run the simulated company however they chose, and to bring a full methodological arsenal to bear on learning something new about leadership. By watching managers cope with the problems and challenges of organizational life, we hoped to come up with some better questions to guide future research. This paper uses Looking Glass, Inc. (a person-centered simulation of management in a complex organization) as an example of how simulation can be used to examine research questions that are designed-in, phenomena that occur because the complexity of real organizations was preserved, and possible research interventions. The nature of this simulation also permits the use of an unusual number of research methods, and these are outlined. The paper concludes by addressing three major questions of the simulation: Is it valid? Is it practical? Is it a game?
On the Reswitching Property of R&D
Authors: Lee Tom K. 
Published: November 2008

Existing theoretical models of research and development (R&D) treat R&D as a single economic activity. Once R&D terminates, the only way for the activity to resume is by assuming some exogenous changes in the basic parameters of the model, e.g., the distribution of technological advances. In contrast, this paper treats R&D as two unique but dependent economic activities. A sequential R&D search model is developed to establish three fundamental results. First, reswitching of R&D is endogenized. Success in development may bring research back as the next optimal choice of action. It is shown that the reswitching phenomenon of the dynamic process of R&D is a result of optimal decision making. Second, when the economic returns based on existing production technology are low compared to what is potentially feasible, the immediate returns to development are high. Thus development is preferable to research. As the level of economic returns increases due to development success, the likelihood of further development success diminishes. Research will then be a better choice relative to development. However, if development is very successful, research will not significantly improve the likelihood of future development success. In that event one might as well capitalize on existing knowledge and continue to develop until the technology field is economically exploited. Third, the choice of a discount rate for R&D will affect the overall decision of R&D vs. stopping. However, the effect on the decision to research or to develop remains to be determined.
Sources of Bias in Assessment Procedures for Utility Functions
Authors: Hershey John C. , Kunreuther Howard C. , Schoemaker Paul J. H. 
Published: November 2008

Utility functions are an important component of normative decision analysis, in that they characterize the nature of people's risk-taking attitudes. In this paper we examine various factors that make it difficult to speak of the utility function for a given person. Similarly we show that it is questionable to pool risk-propensity data across studies (for descriptive purposes) that differ in the elicitation methods employed. The following five sources of bias or indeterminacy are hypothesized and demonstrated. First, certainty equivalence methods generally yield greater risk-seeking than probability equivalence methods. Second, the probability and outcome levels used in reference lotteries induce systematic bias. Third, combining gain and loss domains yields different utility measures than separate examinations of the two domains. Fourth, whether a risk is assumed or transferred away exerts a significant influence on people's preferences in ways counter to expected utility theory. Finally, context or framing differences strongly affect choice in a nonnormative manner. The above five factors are first discussed as essential choices to be made by the decision scientist in constructing Von Neumann-Morgenstern utility functions. Next, each is examined separately in view of existing literature, and demonstrated via experiments. The emerging picture is that basic preferences under uncertainty exhibit serious incompatibilities with traditional expected utility theory. An important implication of this paper is to commence development of a systematic theory of utility encoding which incorporates the many information processing effects that influence people's expressed risk preferences.
Theory, Models and Implementation in Financial Management
Authors: McInnes J. Morris , Carleton Willard J. 
Published: November 2008

A theory of corporate financial management is summarized from the broad flow of finance literature. Within this, contributions to a normative theory, amenable to corporate financial modeling, are reviewed in some detail. The central propositions of a normative theory are isolated to provide a basis of comparison for the practice of financial modeling, as observed through a field research study. Differences between theory and practice are identified and discussed. Compared with the experience of ten years ago, computer-based financial modeling systems are today gaining much greater acceptance in business organizations. Despite this, a wide gap seems to exist between the information and logic structures programmed into financial models, and the precepts and algorithms derived from a normative theory of corporate financial management. Implementation difficulties in three main, but interdependent, areas are identified as causing the gap between theory and practice. First, there is the difficulty of constructing relevant information in a form which would be meaningful in a normative framework. Within the braod set of managerial activities of an organization, there are several relevant logic structures, including: a financial accounting structure; an economic structure dealing with cash flow, economic value, and marginal rates of return to investment: operating information structures dealing with the conduct of an organization's work; and strategic information structures dealing with an assessment of the external and internal human needs which provide a rationale for an organization's present and future existence. The systematic provision of information in each logical mode, and the translation between modes, poses a considerable intellectual and practical challenge. Then there is the problem of dealing satisfactorily with strategic uncertainty, and the way that uncertainty is distributed within the managerial organization. Finally, multiple and conflicting goal dimensions pose considerable problems in terms of an explicit modeling of a corporate objective function. Beyond the intellectual difficulties, moreover, there are political dimensions which cause a reluctance to address an objective function explicitly and directly. Normative finance theory provides a powerful logic for designing information and decision-making structures to support corporate planning. At present, however, the research reported in this survey paper suggests that the finance model is incomplete, particularly with regard to inclusion of behavioral and political dimensions of organizational processes under uncertainty. Finally, the reader should be forewarned that the literatures referenced in this survey are somewhat disjoint, involving different concepts, language and paradigms. This means that the paper's jargon level to most readers will remain high, even after the authors' attempts to minimize it.
Optimal Sequential Investment Decisions Under Conditions of Uncertainty
Authors: Prastacos Gregory P. 
Published: November 2008

This paper presents a mathematical model of sequential investment behavior under conditions of uncertainty. The model addresses the problem of an investor with access to a limited pool of capital, who makes sequential decisions on long-lasting investments, under uncertainty as to the timing or the quality of future opportunities. We derive optimal investment strategies for the cases where the return from investment is a convex or concave function, we present closed form solutions for commonly adopted return functions, and we evaluate how the optimal investment behavior should change when changes occur in the environment, or the underlying probability distributions. In addition, we analyze three modifications of the problem. The results presented in this paper extend previous results on investment behavior for long-lasting (irreversible) decisions; in addition, some results are in accordance with existing ones from portfolio theory and/or search theory.
Organizational Life Cycles and Shifting Criteria of Effectiveness: Some Preliminary Evidence
Authors: Quinn Robert E. , Cameron Kim 
Published: November 2008

This paper discusses the relationships between stage of development in organizational life cycles and organizational effectiveness. We begin the paper by reviewing nine models of organizational life cycles that have been proposed in the literature. Each of these models identifies certain characteristics that typify organizations in different stages of development. A summary model of life cycle stages is derived that integrates each of these nine models. Next, a framework of organizational effectiveness developed by Quinn and Rohrbaugh is introduced. This framework organizes criteria of effectiveness into four models—rational goal, open systems, human relations, and internal processes models. We hypothesize that certain of the models are important in evaluating the effectiveness of organizations in particular life cycle stages but not in others. The analysis of a state agency's development over five years provides some evidence to support these hypothesized relationships between life cycle stages and criteria of effectiveness. We conclude that major criteria of effectiveness change in predictable ways as organizations develop through their life cycles. Some shifts in state of development are resisted by the organization much more than are others, and intervention into organizations may be needed to help make the transitions less painful and costly. We also discuss why the predictions of contingency theory often are not substantiated by research because the responses of organizations to the external environment vary in different life cycle stages.
Sequential Analysis of the Stay/Leave Decision: U.S. Air Force Officers
Authors: Gotz Glenn A. , McCall John J. 
Published: November 2008

This paper develops a model to study the stay/leave decisions of Air Force officers. The model includes the most important institutional factors affecting an officer's career: promotion probabilities and timing, regular force integration probabilities, and mandatory separation and retirement probabilities. The model considers the officer's income for each potential combination of future grade and year of service and his civilian income opportunities. The model studies the incentives to retire for the current nondisability retirement system and the recent proposal by the President's Commission on Military Compensation. Numerical results are presented using actual data from Fiscal Year 1970 for nonrated officers who entered the Air Force through ROTC. On average, the officers' stay/leave behavior conforms with the model's predictions. Dynamic programming is the methodology used to construct the stay/leave model. Two versions of the dynamic programming model are considered. First, a sequential decision model for a risk-neutral agent is developed. The second version of the dynamic programming model generalizes the risk-neutral case to encompass risk-aversion. A functional equation is developed in which there is temporal resolution of uncertainty with respect to both military and civilian incomes.
The Demand for Engineers—Projections Through 1987
Authors: Landis Fred , Svestka Joseph A. 
Published: November 2008

Engineering manpower constitutes an important national resource where demand and supply must be in reasonable balance to assure continued economic growth. The paper establishes a demand analysis to predict the need for engineers in 15 industry groups through 1987, subject to various economic scenarios. It is shown that for total engineering employment in any industry segment the constant dollar gross national product fraction per engineer is only a slowly varying function of time. A least-square fit of this ratio versus time is shown to be an adequate predictor of employment and can be used for extrapolation with confidence. A parallel analysis is also developed for engineers employed in research and development. It is shown that, in general, the need for new engineers due to economic growth is smaller than the need to make up for attrition due to death, retirement, promotions out of engineering and voluntary leaving of the profession. The high mobility rate of engineers out of the profession is significant and its importance has not previously been documented. The paper concludes with a preliminary discussion of the balance between supply and demand. Even with a healthy economic growth the nation is likely to produce a small excess of engineering graduates over the near future. However, there will be a shortage of engineers holding advanced degrees for entry into research and development, even if R&D sees only a moderate growth. Better industry-university cooperation is called for to encourage engineers to undertake advanced degrees, to assess actual future needs and to advise students to select appropriate engineering disciplines.
Cognitive Style as a Basis for MIS and DSS Designs: Much ADO About Nothing?
Authors: Huber George P. 
Published: November 2008

It is commonly believed that the user's cognitive style should be considered in the design of Management Information Systems and Decision Support Systems. In contrast, an examination of the literature and a consideration of some of the broader issues involved in MIS and DSS design lead to the conclusions that: (1) the currently available literature on cognitive style is an unsatisfactory basis for deriving operational design guidelines, and (2) further cognitive style research is unlikely to provide a satisfactory body of knowledge from which to derive such guidelines. The article presents six specific bases for these two conclusions. From a manager's pespective, the outcome of the study is a suggestion: maintain a healthy skepticism if it is suggested that paper and pencil assessments of the user's cognitive style should be used as a basis for MIS or DSS designs. From a researcher's viewpoint, the study raises two questions: (1) If our research interest is MIS and DSS design, does it seem that further research in cognitive style is a wise allocation of our research resources? (2) If our research interest is cognitive style, does it seem that the use of cognitive style as a basis for MIS and DSS designs will become an important application area?
Human Diagnostic Reasoning by Computer: An Illustration from Financial Analysis
Authors: Bouwman Marinus J. 
Published: November 2008

A major complaint of people who use “decision-making” computer programs is that these programs merely provide a final decision, and fail to present the supporting argumentation, in terms the user can understand. This article presents an approach that makes computer programs more “human-like” by basing them on human decision making behavior. Decision making processes of student financial analysts are captured by asking them to think aloud during their evaluation. These verbal traces, called protocols, are analyzed at various levels of detail, resulting in specific models of the decision making processes involved, the strategies used, and the task-specific (financial) knowledge that is required to perform the task. The models and strategies are translated into executable computer programs. Extensive comparisons between human behavior and model simulation output are provided, assessing the extent that the computer program “thinks” and “talks” like a human decision maker. Although the model clearly suffers from “linguistic rigidity,” it does appear to perform the evaluation in a similar manner as the human decision maker, examining the same information in the same order, making the same inferences, and reporting the same conclusions.
The Effect of Workload Dependent Due-Dates on Job Shop Performance
Authors: Bertrand J. W. M. 
Published: November 2008

This study explores the due-date performance of job shop control systems which base job due dates on a time-phased representation of the workload and the machine capacity in the shop. The performance is measured by the mean and the standard deviation of the lateness. Two parameters are used to vary the functioning of the due-date assignment system: a minimum allowance for waiting, denoted by SL, and a maximum fraction of the available capacity allowed for loading, denoted by CLL. The system increases the waiting lime allowance if congestion is observed when loading a new job. The capability of the system to observe congestion is determined by the parameters CLL and SL. Simulation experiments are used to investigate the performance of the assignment system. It is shown that the assignment system performs quite well with respect to reducing the standard deviation of the lateness; the performance is not very sensitive however to the parameter values used; with an expected capacity utilization of 90%, CLL should be set between 0.80 and 1.00 times the mean available capacity and SL should be set between 0.55 and 0.90 times the mean operation waiting time in the shop. The assignment system may also perform well with respect to controlling the mean lateness. If SL is set between 0.55 and 0.75 times the mean expected waiting time in the shop, a constant mean lateness is obtained independent of the utilization of the shop if CLL is set between 0.70 and 0.80 times of the mean available capacity. However, the mean lateness turns out to be quite sensitive to variations in the job-mix of the workload. Finally it is shown that if the values of the assignment parameters are adequate, the mean job lateness is independent of the number of operations in a job. This property can be used to monitor the correctness of the parameter values.
An Injury Threshold Model for Two-Car Collisions
Authors: Krishnan K. S. , Carnahan James V. , Beckmann Martin J. 
Published: November 2008

A theoretical model which estimates the probability of injury to occupants of vehicles in two-car collisions is presented and evaluated. This model is based on considerations of principles from mechanics and observations from biomechanics. It is evaluated using two-car accident injury data. The validity of the model structure is supported because the differences between estimated numbers of injuries and observed numbers of injuries in two-car accidents were statistically insignificant. In contrast, the predictive accuracy was found to be unacceptable for three regression models from the published literature which were arbitrarily specified. The parameter estimates developed for the model provide a basis for tentatively evaluating the effect of vehicle size on the probability of injury to drivers of cars in two-car collisions.
The Allocation of Aircraft to Routes—An Example of Linear Programming Under Uncertain Demand
Authors: Ferguson Allen R. , Dantzig George B. 
Published: November 2008

The purpose of this paper is to illustrate an application of linear programming to the problem of allocation of aircraft to routes in order to maximize expected profits when there is uncertain customer demand. The approach is intuitive; the theoretical basis of this work is found in an earlier study. The allocations are compared with those obtained under the usual procedure of assuming a fixed demand equal to the expected value. The computational procedure is similar to the fixed demand case, with only slightly more computational effort required. This paper is intended both for readers interested in routing (and analogous resource allocation) problems and for those interested in studying an example of an application of linear programming under uncertainty.