bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
THE EFFECTS OF VARIOUS TREATMENTS OF TRUNCATION REMAINDERS IN THE ESTIMATION OF THE CONSUMPTION FUNCTION: A B AYESIAN APPROACH
Authors: Nakhaeizadeh G. 
Published: May 2007

ABSTRACTUsing a Bayesian approach, the effects of various treatments of truncation remainders in the estimating of the consumption function for the Federal Republic of Germany (henceforth F.R.G.) are examined with the help of small and large samples. It emerges that some parameters of the consumption function are quite sensitive to what is done with the truncation remainders. Furthermore it seems better to include these terms in the estimation procedure.
WELFARE AND MONETARY PRECOMMITMENT IN AN ECONOMY WITH MENU COSTS AND UNIONIZED WAGE SETTING
Authors: Cubitt Robin P. 
Published: May 2007

ABSTRACTThe paper shows that monetary precommitment can be advantageous to the government in a macroeconomic policy game where (i) the government's objectives are explicitly derived from those of the citizens, (ii) inflation has a real cost and (iii) the suboptimality of the output level arises from the structure of the private sector rather than from fiscal policy. It suggests that, to this extent, welfare interpretations of game theoretic monetary policy models are coherent.
THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES IN DENMARK 1982–89: TESTING THE RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS/CONSTANT LIQUIDITY PREMIUM THEORY
Authors: Engsted Tom 
Published: May 2007

ABSTRACTIn this paper we examine whether the rational expectations/constant liquidity premium‐theory can explain the Danish term structure of interest rates during the 1980s. Three types of tests will be conducted: a single‐equation regression test, a volatility‐test, and tests based on a cointegrated VAR‐model. All these tests remain valid even if interest rates individually follow non‐stationary stochastic processes. In contrast to most other empirical studies of the term structure, the evidence generally supports the rational expectations/constant liquidity premium‐theory.
RISKY PRODUCTION WITH EX‐ANTE PRICES UNDER MONOPOLY ANALYTICAL AND SIMULATION RESULTS
Authors: Driver Ciaran , Lambert Peter , Vial Stéphane 
Published: May 2007

ABSTRACTThis paper concerns the case of a monopolist facing multiplicative uncertainty in demand. Karlin and Carr (1962), henceforth KC, show that, when price and production are both chosen ex ante, the uncertainty price exceeds the certainty price. They also give a sufficient condition under which the firm locates above the certainty demand curve, but they do not consider the effect on the output level. In this note we replicate the KC results and then go further. In the special case that the price elasticity of certainty demand is constant, and the probability distribution for the uncertainty parameter in the demand function is uniform, output is unambiguously lower under uncertainty, and KC's condition for the firm to locate above the certainty demand curve can be strengthened to one that is both necessary and sufficient. The robustness of these results is tested under less stringent assumptions on demand, abandoning symmetry for a lognormal distribution of the uncertainty parameter. Simulation confirms that the results hold up, and also determines the effects upon the firm's decisions of an increase in demand uncertainty.
WELFARE EFFECTS OF STRATEGIC PRICE SETTING IN ANTICIPATION OF PRICE REGULATION
Authors: Law Peter J. 
Published: May 2007

ABSTRACTA single product monopolist with constant unit costs, in a simple two‐period model, is aware that price regulation will be imposed in the second period. The form of the regulation is such that price in period 2 may not exceed 100 &#x004c;̄; per cent of price in period 1, where 0 < &#x004c;̄ < 1. The period 1 price will be set higher than it would be in the absence of anticipated regulation. However, it is not always the case that pre‐regulation price will be raised as &#x004c;̄ falls. The welfare effects are crucially dependent on the form of the demand function. Under constant elasticity of demand a reduction in &#x004c;̄ will reduce both consumers' and the producer's welfare. Under linear demand, consumers benefit and the producer loses as &#x004c;̄ is reduced and the resultant effect on aggregate welfare is ambiguous.
FUTURE POLICY UNCERTAINTY, EFFORT, AND THE RESPONSIVENESS OF OUTPUT TO MARKET SIGNALS
Authors: Aizenman Joshua , Isard Peter 
Published: May 2007

ABSTRACTThis paper analyses the consequences of future policy uncertainty on the allocation of effort in an economy undergoing reforms. We demonstrate that uncertainty regarding future tax policies may reduce present effort, and will also reduce the responsiveness of output to productivity shocks and other market signals. The discussion has relevance for cases in which privatization will make present managers of firms the future owners and residual claimants to future output. An expectation that the purchasing price of the firm will have a positive relationship to present output will induce the manager to reduce contemporaneous effort, and uncertainty regarding the relationship will also depress present managerial effort.
THE GINI‐TYPE FUNCTIONS: AN ALTERNATIVE DERIVATION
Authors: Milanovic Branko 
Published: May 2007

ABSTRACTThe purpose of this note is to propose an alternative and intuitively simpler derivation of the Gini coefficient (in Section l), to show how it can be generalized and how then a number of coefficients (concentration coefficient, Kakwani's progressivity index) are obtained directly from this generalization (Section 2), and finally to use this approach to obtain some Gini relationships (Section 3).
A NOTE ON GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION IN OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND HEALTH: THE CASE FOR AN ACCIDENT TAX AND A SAFETY BONUS SCHEME
Authors: Lanoie Paul 
Published: May 2007

ABSTRACTUsing a fairly general principal‐agent model in which both firms and workers can affect the risk of a workplace accident, this note shows theoretically that an accident tax and/or a safety bonus scheme could unambiguously reduce the incidence of workplace accidents, contrary to the ambiguous theoretical results that are obtained with safety regulations
CARTEL STABILITY AND THE CURVATURE OF MARKET DEMAND*
Authors: Lambertini Luca 
Published: May 2007

ABSTRACTThe stability of collusion is analysed for a family of demand functions whose curvature is determined by a parameter varying between zero and infinity. When the number of firms is low, firms may prefer to act as quantity setters in order to increase cartel stability if demand is sufficiently convex. Otherwise, price‐setting behaviour enhances their ability to collude. As the number of firms tends to infinity, Cournot behaviour is preferable to Bertrand behaviour in order to stabilize collusion, independently of the characteristics of market demand.
R & D and the company's requirements
Authors: Hubert J. M. 
Published: May 2007

AbstractNumerous models have been put forward in the literature for the selection and evaluation of projects, many of which are based on optimizing the return on investment by the company in R & D projects. This is a noble aim but in practice the financial data available are often of dubious accuracy and so many other factors are involved in actually adopting a portfolio of selected projects that project selection often becomes a theoretical exercise. It is suggested that the selection of projects is in essence the adoption of a strategy which is within the policy and long‐term aims of the company and also within the policy and scientific development of the R & D part of the company. Such a strategy is usually sub‐optimum for both the company and the R & D division, as it is a compromise between a desire for high pay‐back investments by the company and the maintenance of a scientifically balanced R & D involving some long‐term, unknown return, investments. A method is currently being experimented with by Unilever Research which illustrates where conflicts arise between the policy of the main company and that of research, and assists management in arriving at a strategy which most closely fulfils the needs of both policies. Both the concept of the method and its practical use are described in this paper.
The accuracy of project cost and duration estimates in industrial R&D
Authors: Norris K. P. 
Published: May 2007

Abstract. This study of the accuracy of cost and duration estimates, both initial and intermediate, for industrial R&D projects, is based mainly on analysis of the records of 475 projects in four varying research organizations. Mean ratios of actual to estimated cost ranging from 0.97 to 1.51 are obtained, and mean ratios of actual to estimated duration from 1.39 to 3.04. The results are generally similar to those of other British and American studies, with which they are compared.There is no evidence that the information gained as projects progress enables their future cost and duration to be estimated more accurately; at best, the accuracy of such estimates remains constant. No effect of project size on estimate accuracy is found; effects of project length on accuracy, and of time (i.e. increasing experience) on accuracy are found only in one organization each. The pattern of expenditure over time is examined, and found on average to be not far from linear, though with wide individual project variations.When the individual project ratios are reduced by constant factors representing optimistic or pessimistic bias (derived from the mean ratios, and assumed to be characteristic of the firm), and then subjected to a log transformation to make their distribution more symmetrical, the remaining variation, which is a measure of the inaccuracy of estimation for the individual projects, is closely similar in the four organizations, and not greatly different in the organizations covered by other studies when the data are similarly treated.
Some evidence on the accuracy of forecasts in R & D projects
Authors: Thomas H. 
Published: May 2007

In recent years many formal attempts, e.g. Baker & Pound, (1964), have been made to help R & D management assess the worth of R & D projects and select those most worthy of inclusion in the R & D programme. Most of these attempts are based on financial appraisals of a project's worth and require estimates of the costs and likely revenues that will result from the adoption of a given project. It is clear, therefore, that the validity of any measure of a worth for a project is dependent upon the accuracy of the estimates of cost and revenue associated with that project. Unfortunately the limited amount of evidence so far presented suggests, in particular, that cost estimates are extremely inaccurate.In this paper, therefore, we try to add some further evidence on forecast accuracy for a number of industrial R & D projects. We begin with a short review of the existing literature evidence and continue with an analysis of the past effectiveness of R & D work and, in particular, of forecast accuracy.
The use and development of a research project planning and progressing system
Authors: Rainbow S. F. 
Published: May 2007

This paper discusses the use and development of a research project planning and progressing system based on the system described by Baker & Smith (1967). It is an attempt to highlight some of the practical problems involved in setting up and developing such a system at Colworth/Welwyn, the largest Unilever research laboratory in the United Kingdom. The problem at Col worth/Welwyn, as at Port Sunlight, was to improve communications at all levels of management, and, in particular, to direct senior management's attention to those areas where it was most needed.The system described here is only a project control system, and does not formally cover other aspects of research management such as project selection and result implementation. A project control system was chosen as the starting point because it was regarded as the most important, and the easiest to implement throughout the whole laboratory.This paper was first presented at a conference to the R & D Study Group of the Operational Research Society, February 1970.
Conditions for Innovation—with particular reference to textiles
Authors: Catling H. 
Published: May 2007

Abstract. Recent, essentially mathematical, studies of the rate of diffusion of innovation have gone far towards providing a methodology of quantitative prediction once an innovation is well under way. For many purposes, however, possibilities must be assessed and decisions taken at a much earlier stage. This is not easy and the author feels that in concentrating attention on the fully quantifiable factors we are tending to neglect other equally important factors which do not lend themselves to quantification.In this paper* the major determinants of rate of diffusion are discussed qualitatively in relation to a number of case studies of textile innovations made at the Shirley Institute.
Technical entrepreneurship: what do we know?
Authors: Cooper Arnold C. 
Published: May 2007

AbstractThe factors influencing the birth of new, high‐technology firms have been investigated in a number of separate studies. This paper summarizes and reports upon this research.New, technologically‐based firms have had, in the aggregate, substantial economic impact. The birth of these companies has been concentrated in particular places and at particular times.The decision to found a new company appears to be influenced by three major factors. The characteristics of the entrepreneur, including the many aspects of his background which make him more or less inclined toward entrepreneur‐ship, are important. The organization for which he has been working, which might be termed ‘the incubator organization’ also influences the entrepreneurial decision in various ways. A third factor consists of a complex of external influences, including the availability of venture capital and the collective attitudes toward entrepreneurship. Feedback processes appear to be at work such that past entrepreneurship makes future entrepreneurship more likely.
Innovation through new ventures: new venture concept in BOC
Authors: Gardner J. B. 
Published: May 2007

AbstractDuring the last decade there has been increasing questioning in industrial firms of the value and returns from conventionally organized R & D particularly from central research organizations concerned with longer term innovation. This paper describes how one multi‐divisional company, with a wide range of markets, has radically changed its Central R & D function to a Pilot Venture structure, with the object of greatly increasing its effectiveness.The main concepts involved in this ‘New Venture Secretariat’ are not new, but it is felt the particular approach used is novel.
R & D management practices:* chemical industry in Europe
Authors: Olin J. 
Published: May 2007

AbstractThe paper summarizes the results of interviews with R & D managers in forty‐three chemical companies in France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Switzerland and the U.K. covering questions concerned with: R & D planning, size and distribution of R & D efforts, organization of R & D and project management. The results are presented in quantitative and qualitative terms, and the differences between various categories of chemical industry and between various national practices are discussed.
Budgets for research and development: an empirical study of 69 Swedish firms
Authors: Naslund B. , Sellstedt B. 
Published: May 2007

AbstractIt was found that, as a rule, firms decide upon individual projects and do not specify in advance a fixed level for the R & D budget. The decision about individual R & D projects and/or the R & D budget was most frequently made by the president of the company.The implication of our results for various kinds of research on the economics of R & D are discussed.Questionnaires were sent out to 124 large Swedish firms, asking how they determined budgets for research and development (R & D) and who decided about the size of these budgets. 94 firms answered and 69 of these undertook R & D.
Information systems and the spread of scientific ideas
Authors: Coadic Y. F. Le 
Published: May 2007

AbstractThis study attempts to show indirectly that by studying a spread of scientific ideas we are able to comprehend the operation and structure of science and technology information systems. It is shown that any information system is a dynamic and orderly social system which exhibits impressive features of regularity and law. It has also been observed that by formalizing the informal channels, the overall effectiveness of communication can improve.
Communication patterns in two UK R & D laboratories
Authors: Evans M. A. , Woods M. F. , Levene R. J. 
Published: May 2007

AbstractThe literature shows that two patterns of communication exist in an R&D environment, one dominated by a project system and the other directly related to distance. A study was made of the communication patterns of two laboratories about to merge. The study was able to show that differences do exist between the two laboratories, mainly because of the geographical differences on the two sites, but overall communication patterns were similar. These patterns showed that the number of communications did drop off with distance but work contacts and a project system override the distance factor.
Work frustration in engineering departments
Authors: Holt K. 
Published: May 2007

AbstractA large number of engineers work in organizations with specialized jobs of a routine nature. In many ways they can be compared with workers on a production line; it is the same work that is done over and over again. Empirical studies demonstrate that this leads to frustration.There is no standard solution available, but there are a number of approaches that can lead to greater satisfaction if one is willing to experiment with them. A more organic, less structured management system and more use of problem oriented project groups may bring benefits. Job enrichment, where engineers are given more responsibility by transfer of tasks previously done by managers and seniors, and special training where engineers are given an opportunity to systematically develop their capabilities should be considered. Further, organizational development must be mentioned where an external change agent together with the people involved develops a solution aiming at the satisfaction of the needs of both the individual and the organization. Finally come flexible working hours which have an indirect effect on the job situation by allowing for a richer life off the job.
The quality of subjective probabilities of technical success in R & D
Authors: Schröder Hans‐Horst 
Published: May 2007

AbstractEmploying various measures for the quality of subjective probabilities of technical success in R & D a detailed analysis of 4 data sets taken from different R & D organizations shows that the probability assessments roughly specify the populations to which R & D projects belong, but are extremely unreliable indicators of the eventual outcome of individual activities. Unintentional errors and conscious biases are identified as accounting for the unsatisfactory quality of subjective probabilities in R & D. Finally, some measures are suggested which might improve the quality of the probability assessments.
A systematic approach to technological forecasting
Authors: Jones H. 
Published: May 2007

AbstractPast attempts to rationalize the many methods of technological forecasting have not been sufficiently practical; they have largely been based on an abstract sort of classification while their use has been of an ad hoc nature.This paper reviews the position and puts forward a rationale leading to a more logical classification of methods and a systematic approach to their use in practice.The proposed classification and systematic use of the many methods is based on the concept that a technological forecast has four prime elements or dimensions, qualitative, quantitative, time and probability. Only when all these elements are provided can a technological forecast be responsibly used in decision making in R & D and corporate planning.
Application of a resource allocation system in a technology‐based public organization
Authors: Shumway C. R. , Hwang J. D. 
Published: May 2007

AbstractA resource allocation system developed for a government laboratory has been subjected to a full‐scale experiment within that organization. The experimental system includes: (1) a multiplicative benefit estimation procedure, (2) a constrained optimization resource allocation model hosting piecewise linear benefit functions and interactive capabilities for sensitivity analysis, and (3)a network tracking procedure for predicting progress on major laboratory objectives. It is applied to R & D activities representing 3/4 of the laboratory's total program. The methodological philosophy, structure, and experimental design are presented together with attitudinal data and informational insights gleaned from the experiment. The flexibility of the system for adapting to alternative management models and benefit functional forms is demonstrated.
Project selection in Post Office telecommunications R&D
Authors: Elkins N. A. 
Published: May 2007

AbstractIn an industry in which the benefits of R & D are often difficult to quantify, numerate processes for the selection of projects and portfolios are of limited usefulness. The processes that are used provide formal means, necessary in a large organization, to enable managerial judgment at an appropriate level to be applied to both project selection and the balance of the portfolios.
International scientific and technical meetings: why go? who profits?
Authors: Peters E. B. 
Published: May 2007

AbstractA growing body of empirical research shows that information which is actually put to use is most often transmitted by personal contact. This article reviews the literature to examine some of the reasons for the importance of personal contact in the transmission of information and then focuses on scientific and technical meetings as an environment designed to facilitate the transmission of information in this way. The review of the literature is included for completeness in Part II of the article. However, it is the foundation on which the empirical research described in Part I is based.Using the author's definition of meeting effectiveness this research shows that the person who is giving the most is also the most effective in gaining and utilizing information.
Research appraisal in the electricity industry
Authors: Lamb P. 
Published: May 2007

AbstractThe paper describes an interesting and unusual approach to the task of appraising a number of related research projects in the field of electricity utilization research. A combination of conventional cost‐benefit studies and the Delphi technique, adapted to establish the potential marketability of each project, was used to rank a portfolio of twelve projects. The procedures used and the results of the exercise are outlined in the paper. It was found that this approach to quantifying the relative worths of research projects helped considerably in the final assessment of the research program. It also provided the added benefit of involving a large number of staff throughout the organization in the work of the Research Centre.The examination of new techniques of research appraisal must be considered a worthwhile contribution to research management if the best uses are to be made of limited research budgets.