Abstract 6101: PLASMUT: An R Package for estimating the probability of tumor-specific mutations in cell-free DNA
Authors: Arun Adith S. , Medina Jamie E. , Cristiano Stephen , Bruhm Daniel C. , Fijneman Remond J. , Meijer Gerrit A. , Leal Alessandro , Velculescu Victor E. , Scharpf Robert B. 
Published: March 2024

Abstract
Noninvasive approaches for detection of tumor-specific mutations in cell-free DNA (cfDNA) have the potential to track a patient’s response to treatment, enabling effective and timely decisions on therapy. However, mutations in cfDNA arising from clonal hematopoeisis (CH) are common and tumor biopsies for definitive identification of the origin of these mutations are not always available. Sequencing of matched cells from buffy coat and the absence of mutations in these cells has been used to rule-out white blood cell (WBC) mutations, but uneven sequencing depths between matched cfDNA and buffy coat and the fraction of mutant alleles are generally ignored by rule-based tests. A probabilistic approach that quantifies the evidence of tumor-derived mutations in cfDNA is needed.
We developed a Bayesian framework to estimate the probability that a mutation identified in cfDNA is tumor specific. Our approach requires the number of reads with a mutant allele in plasma (yp) and WBCs (yw) and the corresponding number of total distinct reads at these locations. The posterior odds that a mutation is tumor-derived (S) versus CH or germline (H) is given by the ratio of the probabilities of observing the distinct reads given each model times the prior odds. Estimation of the Bayes factor is obtained by integrating over the unobserved mutant allele fractions in plasma and WBCs using Monte Carlo importance sampling. We applied this approach to 52 patients with initially unresectable colorectal cancer (CRC) liver metastases in the CAIRO5 clinical trial (NCT02162563), using ultra-deep targeted sequencing of cfDNA from plasma and matched WBCs.
Among the CAIRO5 patients analyzed, we identified 95 mutations with moderate evidence of tumor-derived cfDNA mutations (Bayes factor &gt; 10) and 19 mutations that were CH-derived (Bayes factor &lt; 0.1). For a subset of 47 cfDNA mutations with no corresponding mutation identified by WBC sequencing, the evidence of tumor origin was highly variable (Bayes factor range: 0.03 to 5.6). While the standard rule-based approach identifies all of these mutations as tumor-derived, none of these mutations reach a moderate evidence cutpoint (all Bayes factors &lt; 6). As a false positive would lead to identification of cfDNA mutations that do not track tumor burden, requiring even higher levels of evidence (Bayes factor &gt; 99) for the selection of cfDNA mutations could be warranted, and still identifies one or more cfDNA mutations in 43 of the patients. This approach is implemented in the R package PLASMUT available from Bioconductor (doi:10.18129/B9.bioc.plasmut).
We developed an approach that quantifies the evidence between two competing models for the origin of mutations in cfDNA. A cutpoint for determination of the probability of tumor-derived cfDNA mutations can be tailored to the disease application, balancing the potential benefits of noninvasive testing with the harms of false positives and negatives.
Citation Format: Adith S. Arun, Jamie E. Medina, Stephen Cristiano, Daniel C. Bruhm, Remond J. Fijneman, Gerrit A. Meijer, Alessandro Leal, Victor E. Velculescu, Robert B. Scharpf. PLASMUT: An R Package for estimating the probability of tumor-specific mutations in cell-free DNA [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2024; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2024 Apr 5-10; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(6_Suppl):Abstract nr 6101.