bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Analyse prospective et politique étrangère
Authors: Lesourne Jacques , Stak Michel 
Published: November 2007

Prospective Analysis and Foreign Policy, by Jacques Lesourne and Michel Stak
Can prospective studies of possible world evolutions, and notably in the economic and social fields, contribute to the elaboration of an international strategy for France? The message of such analyses is the following: possible world evolutions must make France determine a hierarchy in its position of solidarity. Such a program can be summarised in one formula: the seven spheres of cooperation. These are: the European Community, the Trilateral, the Middle-East and Africa, the new industrialized countries, the Third World, China and Eastern Europe. Through these seven spheres, the problem which is raised is that of the coexistence between multipolarity and the control of interdependence which means both more unpredictability and more vulnerability for each country. France must avoid a certain number of errors, namely to display fatalism or be excessively optimistic with respect to its ability to act in world affairs; to think that international strategy is a zero sum game; to believe that there exists a magic dimension on which every possible problem and relation is centered; to consider that large negociations can solve all important problems; to badly combine strategy and tactics; to rely exclusively on the actions of States.
Les forces de théâtre soviétiques et la maîtrise des armements
Authors: Hyland William G. 
Published: November 2007

Soviet Theater Forces and Arms Control, by William G. Hyland
It is naive to believe that a TNF negociation can be successful in a political environment in which SALT is collapsing. One of the major problems is that NATO is stumbling toward negociating, largely to squelch political pressures in Europe, while the USSR intends to cripple a major Western military effort. And, assuming that Poland does not explode, the Soviets have a major tactical advantage heading into the next round of negociations. The last year has revealed the depth of the European commitment to detente and to arms control negociations. All that the Soviets need to do is keep this alive through some marginal concessions. Time is on the side of the Russians, since both the Netherlands and Belgium are likely to balk at actual deployments if there is some hope of a settlement. This suggests that the best US approach is to make a quick relatively generous offer but on a virtually take-it-or-leave-it basis.
L'évolution du parti communiste iranien, le Toudeh, de 1920 à 1981
Authors: Nahavandi Houchang 
Published: November 2007

The Evolution of the Iranian Communist Party, the Tudeh, from 1920 to 1981, by Houchang Nahavandi
This article describes in seven parts the evolution of the Iranian Communist Party, the Tudeh since its foundation in 1919. Since then the Tudeh followed an extremely "orthodox" line. After a long underground period, from 1921 to 1941, the Tudeh reappears in September 1941, shortly after the Allied invasion of Iran. Quite often (1920, 1946, 1953-1954) the political and strategical interests of Soviet Union were the cause of internal strife. Its actual political line is characterised by a quasi inconditional support for the islamic integrism and a break with the leftist and other lay parties. It may play a determining role in the political future of Iran.
Le Japon et sa sécurité
Authors: Satoh Yukio 
Published: November 2007

Le Japon et sa défense, par Yukio Satoh
Face à une tension internationale accrue, il paraît aujourd'hui normal que le Japon augmente ses efforts en matière de sécurité, alors que son budget de défense représente moins de 1% de son PNB. L'alliance nippo-américaine est et demeurera le fondement de la sécurité japonaise. C'est une des raisons, ainsi que l'aversion très forte de la population pour la guerre et le militantisme, pour lesquelles le Japon est resté une force pratiquement négligeable au plan militaire. Une évolution est intervenue au cours des années 70. La politique de Nixon à l'égard de la Chine a fait prendre conscience aux Japonais qu'ils ne pouvaient compter sur l'appui inconditionnel des Etats-Unis et, à la suite de la chute du Vietnam, la diminution de l'intérêt des Etats-Unis pour la sécurité en Asie, a suscité un sentiment d'incertitude chez les Japonais. La crise pétrolière de 1973 ainsi que la menace sur la sécurité du Golfe ont fait apparaître la vulnérabilité stratégique de l'économie japonaise. Par ailleurs, à l'intérieur, la réussite économique et l'apparition de générations nouvelles qui n'ont pas connu la guerre ont entraîné une approche plus réaliste et moins idéologique des problèmes de défense. Aussi les débats sur la défense, hier tabous, suscitent-ils aujourd'hui l'intérêt du public. Face à un environnement international incertain et devant la pression toujours plus grande de l'Administration Reagan, quelle sera l'ampleur du développement des dépenses de défense du Japon ? Les Etats-Unis sauront-ils être suffisamment patients pour laisser le Japon traverser ce processus de mise en place d'un consensus national sur la question de défense ?
Les neutrons : l'arme anti-invasion pour une défense européenne
Authors: Léman Maurice 
Published: November 2007

Les neutrons : l'arme anti-invasion pour une défense européenne, par Maurice Leman
La vulnérabilité croissante des Etats-Unis aux missiles soviétiques rend problématique la discussion américaine au bénéfice de l'Europe, et la doctrine de la réponse flexible est inadaptée à la défense militaire de notre continent. L'arme à neutrons dont seraient dotées un nombre limité de grandes unités des pays européens membres de l'UEO, rassemblées dans un système de forces intégrées, apporterait à l'Ancien monde la clef de sa sécurité. Cette force nucléaire tactique, appuyée par une armée de missiles de théâtre - ces deux composantes étant couvertes par l'arsenal stratégique de la France - permettrait l'exercice d'une stratégie de dissuasion européenne spécifiquement anti invasion. Ce système compatible avec les possibilités économiques et financières des Etats européens membres de l'UEO pourrait être réalisé avant 1990 si ces derniers prenaient enfin la décision politique de coopérer en matière de défense.
La guerre irano-irakienne : paradoxes et particularités
Authors: Chubin Shahram 
Published: November 2007

La guerre irano-irakienne : paradoxes et particularités, par Shahram Chubin
Premier conflit d'importance notable dans le golfe Persique, et conséquence de la révolution iranienne, la guerre irano-irakienne, qui a éclate en septembre 1980, a déjoué toutes les prévisions et se caractérise par un certain nombre de particularités par rapport à tout autre conflit pouvant surgir dans le Tiers-Monde. Elle deux pays bien armés et suffisamment riches pour renouveler arsenaux. Elle a pour origine des différences idéologiques et non des revendications territoriales ou de prétendues "rivalités séculaires". Elle a conduit à des modifications inattendues des alignements politiques dans la région. Il y a peu de chances que cette guerre se termine par une nette victoire militaire. Enfin les superpuissances y jouent un rôle assez marginal. Incapable de mener une guerre victorieuse courte, l'Irak se voit condamné à une longue guerre d'usure où il perd progressivement son avantage initial et s'avère être pour l'instant le grand perdant de cette affaire, en au niveau économique. Par ailleurs, cette guerre ne constitue pas une guerre de menace pour les Etats arabes au Moyen-Orient. Si menace existe, c'est plutôt sous la forme d'une remise en question de la légitimité des régimes qui gouvernent ces Etats et de la manière dont leurs peuples sont régis. En cela, l'Iran actuel lance un sérieux défi à ses voisins du Golfe.
L'avenir de l'Afrique du Sud
Authors: Von der Ropp Klaus 
Published: November 2007

The Future of South Africa, by Klaus Baron von der Ropp
A radicalisation of the political forces in South Africa is occurring today. The modest plans for reform put forward in 1979 by P.W. Botha, the "liberal" Prime Minister, have not been achieved. An extreme group, hostile to any modification of the status quo, has split away from the governing party and has regrouped with the conservative party. The struggle for freedom from apartheid carried out by the black political parties and black trade unions, which have become increasingly political, has intensified. Though they can no longer be ignored by Pretoria, it has so far refused any dialogue with the true representatives of black people, being unable to accept the principle of "one man, one vote in one state". Given this polarisation of attitudes and warning voices even amongst the Afrikaners, is it still possible to achieve a real change through the democratic process? Is civil war the only means of access to political power left to the black population? Because of the economic and strategic importance of South Africa, any such conflict would have very serious international repercussions.
Les implications politiques de la guerre des Falkland
Authors: Chalfont  
Published: November 2007

Les implications politiques de la guerre des Falkland, par Lord Chalfont
La leçon politique la plus immédiate et la plus évidente du conflit des Falkland est peut-être qu'un leader résolu n'a pas de mal à mobiliser l'opinion publique pour appuyer n'importe quelle action, même brutale, si elle est perçue comme nécessaire à la défense des intérêts nationaux contre une agression étrangère. La crise a constitué une épreuve décisive de la volonté et de la capacité des démocraties occidentales à réagir face à une agression, d'où qu'elle vienne. Les Etats-Unis ont montré leur impressionnante fidélité au concept de « relations privilégiées » qu'ils entretiennent avec la Grande-Bretagne. La CEE fut moins constante. Après une manifestation ouverte de solidarité les habitudes plus familières d'hésitation et de désarroi commencèrent à apparaître. La crise des Falkland a également fourni une illustration parfaite de la priorité que donnent les Soviétiques à l'opportunisme plutôt qu'au respect de la loi internationale. Sur le plan plus général des relations internationales, toutefois, l'un des aspects les plus significatifs de la crise des Falkland fut l'apparente impuissance des Nations-Unies en tant qu'instrument de règlement pacifique des différends entre les pays. Mais c'est toutefois pour l'OTAN que les implications de la guerre des Falkland sont les plus graves.
La lente réinsertion de la Chine dans le monde communiste
Authors: Jacob Alain 
Published: November 2007

China's slow reentry into the communist world, by Alain Jacob
Since the Sino-Soviet rupture in the early sixties, contacts have been gradually renewed with the rest of the communist world. On the one hand, there have been conversations at state level with a view to defining a possible basis for « normal » if not friendly relations between China and the USSR. These have opened the way to renewed exchanges with other socialist countries allied to the Soviet Union. On the other hand, the changes in ideology which have occurred since the death of Mao Zedong, have made it possible for China's communist party to renew ties with parties in other countries, which they had previously denounced as « revisionist ». This dialogue is taking place according to new rules, which are rather différent from those in use within the international communist movement when it was controlled mainly by Moscow.
L'Egypte du président Moubarak
Authors: Krämer Gudrun 
Published: November 2007

Mubarak's Egypt, by Gudrun Kràmer
After a period of isolation resulting from her peace treaty with Israël, Egypt seems to be reasserting herself once more in the Arab world, especially since the restitution of the Sinai. Her military and political roles have gained importance in the eyes of pro-Western Arab countries and the position of her adversaries ― those who refuse compro mise and seek confrontation ― has weakened as a result of changes in relative strength brought about by the Irak-Iran war and by the Israeli invasion of Lebanon. After death, both Egypt and the other Arab countries expected to see change of internal and external policy. It was thought that Hosny Mubarak would not follow Sadat's line towards liberal capitalism and strict démocratisation of political structures coupled with rapprochement towards the United States and return to normal relations with Israel. There was much contradictory speculation about what line would be. He has, in fact, imposed « new style » and though this does not question the basic principles of policy, it does lean towards a more flexible interpretation. Contrary to expectations the return of Sinai did not provoke fundamental change of direction. However, in spite of repeated assurances of stability and continuity, new elements are discernible within the government, especially as regards foreign policy, and these are worth analysing carefully.
Les problèmes de sécurité en Afrique francophone
Authors: Chipman John 
Published: November 2007

Security problems of francophone Africa, by John Chipman
Recently there have been a number of military uprisings in francophone Africa. The western and central parts of Africa are now much more unstable parts of the continent than they were ten years ago. The security concerns of the francophone states vary from country to country and include problems caused by ethnic divisions, border disputes, religious and seperatist disputes subversive immigration, and disaffection caused by austere economic problems or natural catastrophes. No mere alliance of regional powers is likely to prevent the resurgence of vosilence or crises in these states. But security systems established within economic organisations may offer some promise in terms of reinforcing mutual confidence among member states and in providing structures for conflict resolution. The French can continue to play a stabilising role in the region by encouraging the development of such organisations. The source of instability in these states, however, is likely to remain internal.
La guerre d'Afghanistan et l'Asie centrale soviétique
Authors: Bennigsen Alexandre , Lemercier-Quelquejay Chantai 
Published: November 2007

The War in Afghanistan and Soviet Central Asia,
by Alexandre Bennigsen and Chantai Lemercier-Quelquejay
The events in Iran and Afghanistan have not created a new situation but have served as a catalyst accelerating an existing situation in Soviet Islam and rendering it more dramatic and dangerous. Muslim socialism, fundamentalism or secularism have been introducted into central Asia through many different channels, i.e. through Soviet Muslims in Afghanistan, Afghans in the USSR, foreign Muslims residing in the Soviet Union, finally and especially through foreign radio broadcasts. Islam is no longer just an « ideology » in the USSR, it is increasingly becoming a political force. Realising this, the Soviet authorities have ceased to collaborate with Soviet muslin leaders and have revived a brutal form of anti-Islamic propaganda. Soviet Muslims have discovered by opening themselves to the outside Muslim world that resistance to « big brother » is possible, that Islamic fundamentalism seems younger and more dyna-mic than Marxism-Leninism and also that they belong to Dar-el-Islam, the community of 800 million believers against the infidels.
Le Japon, puissance technologique : présent et futur
Authors: Dupuis Marc 
Published: November 2007

Japan, a Technological Power : Présent and Future, by Marc Dupuis
Even if Japan has been recently drawing attention by progress made in a continuously increasing number of high technology fields, there still exists some area in which a gap has to be filled ; it is in particular the case of nuclear energy and, more especially, space, in which the present dépendance on the United States is very strong, and the materialization of future independance plans will be hampered by an incomplete development scheme. As for biotechnologies, Japan is quite in the competition, but its main asset is a very strong position in the fields of electronics and new materials, because relevant technologies have applications in the whole industrial field and will contribute to increase in the coming years its economical power. Such an increase should not destabilize the US-Japan industrial and technological axis, in which cooperation will prevail over competition through the natural build up of relations between high technology firms. Europe, on the other hand, may reequilibrate its technological position with respect to Japan, if a complete program of space development can be carried out successfully and without delay.
La dynamique Gorbatchev
Authors: Sokoloff Georges 
Published: November 2007

The Gorbachev Dynamic, by Georges Sokoloff
A reading of Gorbachev's speeches throws light both on the man himself, as well as on his approach to Soviet economie problems. It is clear that the Secretary of the Party considers these problems of crucial importance for the future of his country, and we can discern from his style two fundamental elements of his personality. He is imbued with a sense of urgeney on the one hand, and also with great détermination to match actions with words. Gorbachev's proposed solutions for reviving the Soviet economy have a ring of genuine originality. Through the promotion of social cohésion, he believes the system can regain efficacy. He wishes to reindustrialise the USSR, through ambitious programmes of investment and modernisation. He also wishes to reorganise économie administration with less emphasis on central planning and more scope for managerial initiative. Each one of these aims will meet with criticism and it is not at ail sure that they can be moulded into an overall strategy. The issue of most importance, however, is whether the Gorbachev dynamism can pene-trate the vast, heavy layers of caste and social inertia existing in the Soviet Union.
La France dans la politique occidentale de l'URSS
Authors: Mendras Marie 
Published: November 2007

France in Soviet Policy towards the West, by Marie Mendras
De Gaulle succeeded in setting up a dialogue between the Soviet Union and France which satisfied a desire on both sides to develop a privileged relationship in the opposite camp. Through its relations with France, the USSR was in fact seeking a general detente with the West and with the United States in particular. The Soviet Union achieved its principal objectives with the realization of détente in the early seventies and France became simply one among other Western partners. It thereby lost much of its importance as a tool of Soviet foreign policy. The détérioration of US-Soviet relations over recent years and in the general climate of East-West dealings could have led to renewal of political coopération between Paris and Moscow. The French socialist leadership, however, adopted an uncompromising stance towards the USSR, reiterating France's solidarity with the Atlantic Alliance and its European partners. The Soviets have denounced this policy of « europeanism » and « atlanticism » as detrimental to French independence and to detente. They would have preferred to see France playing once more a disruptive role within the Atlantic Alliance. The renewal of summit dialogue since 1984 is more of a diplomatie exercise than a return to the situation of the sixties.
L'UNITA, l'Angola et l'Afrique du Sud : quel rôle pour l'Occident ?
Authors: Girard Renaud 
Published: November 2007

UNITA, Angola and South Africa : the Role of the West ?, by Renaud Girard
The United States hâve recently given military aid to UNITA, a liberation movement struggling for ten years against the presence of a Cuban expeditionary corps in Angola. Should the West help UNITA ? Many in the West are opposed to any assistance, evoking South African aid to UNITA and implicitely denying its own political perso-nality. UNITA, however, while deeply rooted in its own country, has a strong and unique political perspective being revolutionary in tactic but pro-West in its goals. Confronted by Soviet expansionism in southern Africa, the West seemed to be paralyzed for many years by a regretable Munick Conference-type attitude. For the West, the résistance in Angola of a movement as strong as UNITA is a windfall. Both political morality in helping its friends, and the défense of its own interests are at the heart of the West's engagement.
Les conséquences de Tchernobyl : un atout pour les relations Est-Ouest ?
Authors: Thies Jochen 
Published: November 2007

Could Chernobyl lead to Better East-West Relations ?, by Jochen Thies
Does the Chernobyl catastrophe represent a turning point in human history ? What seems certain six months after the disaster is that pressure from the Western média broke down the Soviet wall of secrecy, and this also influenced the IAEA consultations in Vienna. Moscow's initial obstinate silence after the accident at the nuclear reactor has affected its relations with the countries of Eastern Europe. But the Western democracies are also facing challenge. The parameters of their international polity may be changing. Not only are Franco-German ties being put to the test, but the cohesion of the European Community itself is under strain. The Soviet Union will only continue to follow the prudent path of cooperation on which it has embarked since Chernobyl if it sees that solidarity persists in Western Europe.
Des observateurs pour contrôler le respect des accords d'Helsinki
Authors: Maresca John 
Published: November 2007

A Proposal for Helsinki Observers, by John J. Maresca
The Soviets have not implemented the human rights provisions of the Helsinki Final Act of 1975. To insure that the Helsinki accord is finally respected, the West should use the 1986 Vienna review meeting of the CSCE to propose creation of a System of Helsinki observers. These would be national teams which would be free to travel widely, and to verify whether Helsinki's cotnmitments are being carried out. Such verification is needed before the « Helsinki process » becomes completely illusory.
L'Australie, le nucléaire et la présence française en Nouvelle-Calédonie
Authors: Pons Xavier 
Published: November 2007

Australia's Reactions to Nuclear Testing and the French Présence in New Caledonia, by Xavier Pons
For Australia, there are two causes of irritation arising front French présence in the Pacific. One is nuclear testing in Polynesia and the other the « colonial » status of New Caledonia. Its strong protests against French tests are not so much because of any actual inconvenience caused to Australia, but rather with a view to gaining favour with independent states of the région and thus promoting its status as a regional power. It is with similar motives that Australia supports the independence movement in New Caledonia. However, it is prevented from defining a cohérent antinuclear policy by the importance it attaches to its alliance with the United States.
L'Irak après sept ans de guerre
Authors: Gueyras Jean 
Published: November 2007

Iraq After Seven Years of War, by Jean Gueyras
The war against Iran, started a little imprudently by President Saddam Hussein in September 1980, has compromised Iraq's political and economie future, as well as his own position at the head of the State. The Iraqian President dreamed of turning his country into the Gulfs main power. He is now dépendent upon foreign countries, who provide financial aid and armement necessary to face a war of attrition led by Iran against his regime. This has significantly limited his régional and international ambitions and has established a severe austerity policy to prevent the State's bankruptcy. Internally, he must now consider the army's growing influence, who assumes the heavy burden of defending Iraq's boundaries. Until now, the Baasist régime has resisted repeated assaults from Teheran's troups. It nevertheless remains fragile and at the mercy of a significant breakthrough of Iranian forces on the front.