bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Estimation of vital rates by means of monte carlo simulation
Authors: Dyke Bennett , MacCluer Jean W. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Monte Carlo simulation has been used to estimate age-specific fertility and mortality rates for a small population,the French-derived isolate of Northside on St. Thomas, U. S. Virgin Islands. Estimates were based on data collected in a household census and genealogical survey and on birth, death, and marriage records for the years 1916to 1966. During this 50-year period (in which the population size increased from 202 to 657), the numbers of births and deaths were too, small to estimate age-specific rates directly, and in addition, death registration was incomplete. Mortality rates were estimated using a simulation program in which mortality was the only stochastic variable. A model mortality schedule was chosen which most accurately reproduced the growth pattern of the population over the 50-year period. To estimate fertility rates, a more complex simulation model was used in which fertility, nuptiality, and mortality were random variables with probability distributions. Preliminary estimates of fertility were made from the birth records and used as input to this simulation program. Birth probabilities were adjusted empirically from one set of simulation runs to the next, until population growth rates, as well as other demographic characteristics, were similar in the real and simulated populations. The birth rates which produced the best fit to the real population data were taken as the estimated age-specific fertility schedule. To reproduce the real population age structure more closely, secular changes in birth probabilities were applied.
On long-term mortality trends in the United States, 1850–1968
Authors: Rao S. L. N. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This study of United States life tables analyzes the process of mortality transition during 1850–1968. Special features of the study are (1) a phase-specific, rather than an age-specific, analysis of mortality and (2) use of measures based on person-years of life (nLx) in phase-intervals, rather than survival rates (nPx) or expectation of life at given ages (exo). The analysis suggests that the historical transition of mortality in the United States can be described as a three-stage process: an initial stage of slow improvement in life expectancy during 1850–1900, a second stage of rapid improvement during 1900–1950, and a third stage of slower improvement since 1950. Quantitative measures of rapidity of mortality decline in the several phases indicate that they are not identical for all phases and in all stages. The analysis also suggests that there have been rapid changes in the components of overall mortality differentials by sex and race in the United States. The paper draws attention to the need for studies of factors in variations of mortality at ages beyond 50 in the United States population subgroups.
On the efficiency of the estimates of life table functions
Authors: Mitra S. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Expected values and variances of several life table functions have been obtained by converting the sample estimates of age-specific mortality rates to probabilities of dying by Reed-Merrell’s approximation. The expressions also permit the development of a procedure that will enable the researcher, constrained usually by his limited resources, to maximize the efficiency of his sampling technique. Needless to say, these results will be particularly useful for countries where national vital statistics are not adequate for construction of life tables, and also for countries where such tables are usually obtained by comparing age distributions of successive censuses.
A functional classification of metropolitan communities
Authors: Kass Roy 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Five major approaches to the functional classification of communities have been offered. Although most of them allow the recognition of a community as specialized in more than one function, their application necessitates consideration of the several individual functions one at a time. This paper offers a method for classification that takes account of the entire configuration of selected functions.
Eight industrial groups were used in determining which SMSA’s of 1960 had similar configurations of functional activity. The procedure for determining this similarity, which reduced the job to a manageable size, is described as are the distinguishing functional configurations.
Estimating the incidence and prevalence of birth orders: A technique using census data
Authors: Veevers J. E. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Although birth order is recognized as an important social variable, the incidence of various birth orders is often difficult to assess using vital statistics. A technique is described whereby the incidence of birth orders in a population may be estimated directly from census data on the number of children ever born to post-menopausal women. The technique has the advantages of allowing ready utilization of existing and widely available data, based on very large samples on which considerable supplementary information is available. In addition, it draws attention to a relatively neglected aspect of differential fertility, namely, the child’s perspective as opposed to the mother’s view. Limitations of the technique relating to quality of data, to multiple births, and to differentials in infant and maternal mortality are discussed, and possible applications in demography and sociology are suggested.
Design of household sample surveys to test death registration completeness
Authors: Sirken Monroe G. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper studies the design effect of counting rules, for linking deaths to housing units where they are enumerated in the survey, on the sampling variance of dual system and single system estimators of death registration completeness. It investigates estimators based on conventional rules that uniquely link each death to a single housing unit as well as estimators based on multiplicity rules which permit deaths to be linked to more than one housing unit. Sampling variance formulas are derived containing parameters that reflect the efficiency of the counting rule. Estimates of these parameters for different counting rules are compared utilizing information that was collected in a mortality survey experiment. Finally, the design of a national death registration test is considered and the sample size implications of different counting rules arc compared.
The 1960s: A decade of progress for blacks?
Authors: Farley Reynolds , Hermalin Albert 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Between 1960 and 1970 blacks, as well as whites, improved their socioeconomic status. Among both races, educational attainment increased, the occupational distribution was upgraded, and real purchasing power rose markedly. In almost every comparison, the gains were somewhat greater among blacks than among whites and thus most indicators of racial differentiation declined. Nevertheless, the changes of this decade failed to eliminate racial differences with regard to socioeconomic status. In all comparisons, except for the income of certain groups of women, blacks were at a disadvantage when compared to whites both at the start and at the end of this decade, and very large racial differences remain. Further socioeconomic progress by blacks during the 1970s will probably not eliminate racial differences. The article concludes by relating the socioeconomic trends to such other aspects of race relations as integration, governmental policy, and the attitudes of whites and blacks.
The influence of number and ages of children on residential mobility
Authors: Long Larry H. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Married couples without children are more geographically mobile than those with children, at least through age 45. Among husband-wife couples with children, ages of children exercises a consistent mobility differential; when age of family head is controlled for, families with children under 6 years old only are the most mobile both within and between counties, followed by those with children under 6 and 6–17 years old, and followed in turn by families with children 6–17 years old only. The relationship between number of children and the probability of moving within counties has a reverse J-shape for family heads at each age under 45; after age 45 the relationship assumes a more normal J shape. Number of children is inversely related to the probability of migrating (moving between counties) for husband-wife families in which the husband is under 35; after age 35 the relationship is erratic. The effect of ages of children generally holds for each size of family. Female family heads with children are generally more geographically mobile than male family heads (wife present) at the same age and with the same number and ages of children present.
A further note on the relation between economic development and fertility
Authors: Ekanem Ita I. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The relationship between economic development and fertility has been examined by several scholars. In particular Heer, using data from 41 nations (24 developing and 17 developed) tested three hypotheses. His objective was to reconcile the two prevailing views in this context, namely, that economic development on one hand promotes and on the-other inhibits fertility. However, when we reran Heer’s data separately for the two groups of countries in his list, the pattern of relationships between the variables that he used changed significantly. On this basis, we restricted this study to a further examination of his three hypotheses using data from developing nations only but for two points in time.
The evidence from this study seems to support two of the hypotheses in Heer’s study. In other words, whether the analysis of this relationship is restricted to developing nations or includes both developed and developing nations, it remains true that increased economic development implies a decreased illiteracy and a decreased IMR; a decreased illiteracy and IMR are optimal conditions of low fertility. Nonetheless, the data examined here do not seem to resolve the question of whether increased economic development implies a decreased fertility. Accordingly, continued testing of the hypothesis at further points in time with more accurate data is in order.
The temporal relationship of marriage, conception, and birth in Massachusetts
Authors: Whelan Elizabeth Murphy 
Published: March 2007

AbstractAn investigation into the timing of first births in relationship to the date of marriage in Massachusetts confirmed the finding of previous national and local birth timing studies that first births likely to have been conceived before the marriage of their parents constitute a substantial proportion of all first births. The differential frequency of premaritally conceived births among various subgroups appeared to account for the variation noted in the overall timing patterns of first births after marriage.Data were gathered through linkage of certificates of birth of a sample of legitimate first children with the marriage record of their parents. Analysis of the marriage-first birth interval by maternal age and race, type of marriage ceremony, and occupation of the bride and groom were conducted and comparisons with previously published data were made. Separate consideration was given to the frequency and characteristics of those births likely to be premaritally conceived and those likely to have been conceived after the wedding.
Retrospective evidence of a decline of fertility and child mortality in Bangladesh
Authors: Schultz T. Paul 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
A detailed analysis of survey data collected in 1961–1962 for a sample of 4200 families in central East Pakistan produced consistent and reasonable estimates of birth and death rates for the preceding decade. Extremely high levels of infant and child mortality declined noticeably in the period 1952–1961. Age-specific birth rates to married women also decreased in the decade for women over the age of 19, while a small increase was recorded for married women aged 15 to 19. During the 1950s total marital fertility declined about one-fifth. Birth rates remained high in 1960 according to these estimates, but there is reason to anticipate further reductions in birth rates, particularly among older women. To improve understanding of the determinants of fertility and to aid in the formulation of policy to cope with population trends, statistical analysis must increasingly consider information on families over time. Retrospective household survey data may provide the empirical base for this line of inquiry.
Factors influencing the casefinding of migrations in the Liberian fertility survey
Authors: Rumford John 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
A study was made of the factors that affected the casefinding of internal migrations in Liberia using the Chandrasekar—Deming dual enumeration and tabulation methods. The results of this work suggest that the recording and not recording of a migration is not a random occurrence but is associated with a particular enumeration system, origin and destination of the migration, and the migrant’s age, sex, and location of current residence.
A mathematical model for resource allocation in population programs
Authors: Lawrence Charles E. , Mundigo Axel I. , ReVelle Charles S. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The reduction of population growth rates through family planning programs is being attempted in many of the developing nations of the world. This activity lends itself aptly to mathematical modeling. Building from the well-known difference equation model of population growth, a model is constructed which integrates population dynamics, program activities, and resource consumption. The model may be used predictively to assess the outcome of various program activities. Alternatively, it may be used to determine the pattern of activities which yields the greatest reduction in births under the projected resource constraints. A further use of the model is the identification of the parameters to which predictions are most sensitive; such information provides valuable insights to those gathering the input data. The model is here applied to a family planning program currently in progress. An evaluation of the feasibility of that program’s goals is provided, as well as information on limiting resources, data sensitivity, and the most important ages for contraceptive acceptance.
The relationship of family planning to savings and consumption in Taiwan
Authors: Freedman Deborah S. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This study relates fertility behavior to modern economic behavior, namely, saving and consumption of modern durables, for a sample of couples in Taiwan. It uses only couples who say they want no more children, and these couples are further classified by current use of contraception and by whether or not they already had excess fertility. Couples who are successful fertility planners, i.e., those who have no unwanted children and are current users of contraception, are distinctive with regard to modern economic behavior as compared to couples who do not use contraception or have excess fertility. Successful planners are more likely to save and to have more modern durables; these differentials remain when adjustments are made for the effects of family income, wife’s age, wife’s education, and duration of marriage. It seems that the kind of planning behavior which enables a couple to successfully plan their family size also enables them to manage their economic affairs so that they can save and enjoy more modern consumption goods.
The poor as a “perfect contraceptive population” and zero population growth
Authors: Bauman Karl E. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
A goal of the federal family planning program is to enable women to have only those children they want, with priority given to the poor. Is that compatible with the goal of those who want zero population growth? This analysis shows that prevention of all unwanted births to women in low-income families would have yielded completed fertility much above that required for zero population growth.
The effects of demographic factors on age composition and the implications for per capita income
Authors: Janowitz Barbara 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Multiple regression analysis techniques are used to measure the impact of variations in fertility and mortality rates on the population of labor-force age. The results of this analysis suggest that the impact of reductions in mortality on age composition are dependent on the level of mortality already attained, whereas reductions in fertility, as expected, increase the population in the nondependent age groups. The direct effect of vital rates on potential per capita income is assessed using the results of the regression equations, and such results suggest that variations in per capita income as large as 20 percent could be accounted for by variations in vital rates.
Age composition in the absence of mortality and in other odd circumstances
Authors: Coale Ansley J. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The age composition of populations experiencing no mortality and various kinds of fertility is derived. It is then shown that, if successive mortality schedules can be expressed as the sum of a component that varies with age and a component that varies with time, only the former has any effect on the age structure of the population. One implication is that a population in which mortality varies with time but not with age has the same composition as a population with no mortality at all.
Birth control and the black American: A matter of genocide?
Authors: Weisbord Robert G. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
During the 1960’s and continuing into the 1970’s, the charge that birth control and abortion are integral elements of a white genocidal conspiracy directed against Afro-Americans has been heard with increasing frequency and stridency in black communities. The genocide theory finds greatest acceptance among spokesmen for black nationalist and black revolutionary groups, but suspicion of family planning programs is not limited to them. An analysis of black leadership opinion on birth control is provided in this paper. The black debate over the desirability of population limitation is traced back approximately fifty years. It began with a dispute between those blacks who believed that in sheer numbers there was strength and those blacks, such as W. E. B. DuBois, who argued that among human races, as among vegetables, quality and not quantity counted. An appreciation of the sexual exploitation of the chattel slave in the ante-bellum period, which did not end with emancipation, is also essential to an understanding of the roots and rationale of the genocide notion which are the foci of this paper.
The family size utility function
Authors: Terhune Kenneth W. , Kaufman Sol 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This article discusses the family size utility function (FSUF), which portrays the relative strengths of preferences among family sizes, as held by an individual, couple, or group. Derivable from the FSUF are indications of motivation to seek or avoid additional children, indications which may prove useful for understanding fertility decisions and for predicting completed fertility. A method is described for assessing the FSUF with data obtainable by interview surveys, and case studies of actual FSUF’s are presented. The article concludes with theoretical and empirical questions for further investigation of the FSUF.
Evaluation of an experimental short interview form designed to collect fertility data: The case of Peru
Authors: Marckwardt Albert M. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
A comparison is made of demographic data gathered using an experimental short interview form with that from the more traditional in-depth fertility and contraceptive KAP interview. The short form is weakest in measuring current fertility, somewhat more adequate in measuring cumulative fertility, and about equally as effective as the depth interview in measuring infant/child mortality. Most of the deficiency in the quality of the short-interview data can be attributed to accepting information from other household members or neighbors when the woman herself was not available.
Reactions to Blake and Das Gupta’s “The fallacy of the five million women: A re-estimate”
Authors: Cutright Phillips 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This article reviews the methods used by Blake and Das Gupta (1972) to estimate need for contraceptive protection among single (never-married) and previously married women below the near-poverty line in 1966. More recent data than those used by Blake and Das Gupta to estimate coital activity and protection by contraception allow calculation of alternative estimates of the number of single and previously married women in need in 1966. To assess the relative accuracy of the two estimates, we introduce a validity check. Using vital data from the National Natality Survey and other sources, we calculate a birth rate and a pregnancy rate for low-income single and previously married women, using the two estimates of the number of women in need—i.e., the population at risk of these vital events. If the two estimates of the number in need of contraceptive protection are either excessively low or high, this should be apparent in the resulting birth and pregnancy rates.
A hazards-Model analysis of the covariates of infant and child mortality in Sri Lanka
Authors: Trussell James , Hammerslough Charles 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The purpose of this paper is twofold: (a) to provide a complete self-contained exposition of estimating life tables with covariates through the use of hazards models, and (b) to illustrate this technique with a substan-tive analysis of child mortality in Sri Lanka, thereby demonstrating that World Fertility Survey data are a valuable source for the study of child mortality. We show that life tables with covariates can be easily estimated with standard computer packages designed for analysis of contingency tables. The substantive analysis confirms and supplements an earlier study of infant and child mortality in Sri Lanka by Meegama. Those factors found to be strongly associated with mortality are mother’s and father’s education, time period of birth, urban/rural/estate residence, ethnicity, sex, birth order, age of the mother at the birth, and type of toilet facility.
Temporal variations in mortality: A comparison of U. S. suicides and motor vehicle fatalities, 1972–1976
Authors: Bollen Kenneth A. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Among the various types of mortality, motor vehicle fatalities (MVF) and suicides are two that are very responsive to social, economic, and psychological factors. The analysis of the temporal patterns of suicides and MVF points to important but neglected forces affecting them. This paper examines the daily patterns of MVF and suicides for the United States from 1972 to 1976. The effects of the day of the week, month, year, and holidays on these types of mortality are estimated. Total MVF and suicides, as well as daily differentials by sex, age, and race, are analyzed with regression techniques. The results show that temporal variations are stronger in MVF than in suicides but are present in both. MVF tend to peak on Saturday, in the summer months, in 1972 and 1973, and on holidays. Suicides are generally highest on Monday, in the spring months, in 1975 and 1976, and on nonholidays. Differentials in the temporal patterns are evident. For instance, whites generally have a sharper decline in suicides on holidays than do nonwhites. The holiday peak in MVF for the 60 and over population is Christmas, while it is New Year’s for the younger age groups. Males exhibit a greater increase in suicides from March to May than do females. Finally, the results of a comparison of the daily patterns of MVF and suicides revealed a negative correlation. This contrasted with the strong positive relationship between MVF and suicides generally found in cross-sectional studies. The implications of these findings are briefly discussed.