bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Prior Information and ARIMA Forecasting
Authors: Cholette Pierre A. 
Published: July 2007

AbstractUsing the method of ARIMA forecasting with benchmarks developed in this paper, it is possible to obtain forecasts which take into account the historical information of a series, captured by an ARIMA model (Box and Jenkins, 1970), as well as partial prior information about the forecasts. Prior information takes the form of benchmarks. These originate from the advice of experts, from forecasts of an annual econometric model or simply from pessimistic, realistic or optimistic scenarios contemplated by the analyst of the current economic situation. The benchmarks may represent annual levels to be achieved, neighbourhoods to be reached for a given time period, movements to be displayed or more generally any linear criteria to be satisfied by the forecasted values. The forecaster may then exercise his current economic evaluation and judgement to the fullest extent in deriving forecasts, since the laboriousness experienced without a systematic method is avoided.
On the usefulness of macroeconomic forecasts as inputs to forecasting models
Authors: Ashley Richard 
Published: July 2007

AbstractA forecasting model for yt based on its relationship to exogenous variables (e.g. x̌t) must use x̌t, the forecast of x̌t. An example is given where commercially available x̌t's are sufficiently inaccurate that a univariate model for yt appears preferable. For a variety of types of models inclusion of an exogenous variable x̌t is shown to worsen the yt forecasts whenever x̌t must itself be forecast by x̌t and MSE (x̌t) > Var (x̌t). Tests with forecasts from a variety of sources indicate that, with a few notable exceptions, MSE (x̌t) > Var (x̌t) is common for macroeconomic forecasts more than a quarter or two ahead.Thus, either:

available medium range forecasts for many macroeconomic variables (e.g. the GNP growth rate) are not an improvement over the sample mean (so that such variables are not useful explanatory variables in forecasting models), and/or
the suboptimization involved in directly replacing x̌t by x̌t is a luxury that we cannot afford.
Estimation and prediction under structural instability: The case of the U.S. pulp and paper market
Authors: Baudin Anders , Nadeau Serge , Westlund Anders 
Published: July 2007

AbstractThe objectives of this paper are: first, to show empirically the relevance of using adaptive estimation techniques over more traditional estimation approaches when economic systems are believed to be structurally unstable over time; and secondly, to compare in an empirical framework two adaptive estimation techniques: Kalman filtering and the Carbone–Longini filter. For that purpose, an econometric model for the U.S. pulp and paper market is examined under the assumption of structural instability and, hence, constitutes the basis for comparing forecasting performances and estimation accuracy achieved by each technique. A version of Kalman filtering, modified in line with the basic idea of ‘tracking’ characterizing the Carbone–Longini filter, is also presented and applied. The analysis of the results shows that it may be worth using adapative estimation methods to estimate structurally unstable models, even if there is no prior knowledge about the patterns of variation of the parameters. Also, it shows the Carbone–Longini filter and Kalman filtering as being complementary estimation techniques. An estimation/forecasting methodology involving a sequential application mode of these two techniques is suggested.
NGOs in Asia: Issues in development
Authors: Bowden Peter 
Published: July 2007

AbstractIn late 1988 and 1989, the author led a seven country study of NGO activities for the Asian Development Bank. Almost twenty consultants from eight different organizations were involved in the project, the purpose of which was to identify NGOs that were able to contribute to Bank financed projects, and the ways in which any collaboration could take place. The willingness of governments to support the projects was an important aspect of the assessment. During the course of the study, a number of features of NGO operations were identified which are not often reviewed in the literature. These issues, discussed in this paper, relate to the mutual benefits that would flow from greater levels of co‐operation between large donors and NGOs. The paper also discusses some of the difficulties that stand in the way.
Projects of the people or for the people: A look at villagers' participation in three projects in two villages in Tanzania
Authors: Mannion Joe , Brehony Eamonn 
Published: July 2007

AbstractThe study examines the extent to which villagers participated in three projects, run by nongovernment organizations (NGOs), in the Iringa Region of Tanzania. Particular attention is given to the factors influencing participation and to what might be done to ensure participation in village development projects in Tanzania. Data were obtained from interviews with randomly selected groups, the informal comments of study participants and observations, and experiences of one of the study authors in the study villages. There was very little involvement of the villagers in planning and other decisions related to the three projects. While village government leaders were involved by the project organizers, often they did not reflect villagers' views. Low levels of participation were found in two of the projects; agricultural extension and oxen training, with 54 and 78 per cent respectively in the ‘low’ category. While the ‘ten cell’ (local) leaders were responsible for implementing the projects, very few of them had any input into project decisions. Villagers would like to be more involved in project decisions and, based on the group meetings conducted as part of this study, are prepared to get involved in articulating their needs. Suggestions on how this might be achieved are presented.
Placing agricultural research and technology transfer in one organization: Two experiences from Colombia
Authors: Kaimowitz David 
Published: July 2007

AbstractBased on two experiences from Colombia, placing agricultural research and technology transfer in the same institution is found to be neither a necessary, nor sufficient, condition for effective co‐ordination between the two activities or improved institutional performance. Additional factors to consider include: (1) the specificity of the problems addressed; (2) the institution's capacity to manage the co‐ordination; (3) status differences and competition over resources; (4) institutional size; and (5) the level of politicization of the technology transfer activities.
Rural development in Sudan: The Dutch aid experience
Authors: O'Keefe P. , Kirkby J. , Harnmeijer J. 
Published: July 2007

AbstractThis article concerns the evaluation of Dutch rural aid projects in the Sudan, with particular reference to sustainability. The general policy within which these projects were developed concerns ‘investing in people’, ‘thinking ahead’ and ‘institution strengthening’ and the evaluation is carried out within a framework of ‘themes of success’; eight projects are involved, focusing on the needs of women and refugees, smallholder credit, locust control, forestry control and cotton stalk briquetting. In terms of the immediate impact, the projects focusing on the needs of women and refugees were less successful. This was in part through weak project formulation and monitoring, lack of experience and cultural inhibitions. But all projects suffered from the effects of the macrocontext. The government's attention is upon large scale export‐generating agricultural projects, so projects concerned with other rural issues are marginal to the government's intentions. Environmental concern is seen as inhibiting economic goals; international pressures lead to ‘soil mining’. Furthermore, the international Islamic Revival produces internal conflict militating against sustainable development projects. In conclusion, all these projects are in some respects successful, but none is likely to be sustainable in the current context. However, local projects cannot be sealed off from the macrocontext; success requires the participation of international, national and local agencies and non‐government organizations.
Relations between central and local governments in Turkey: An historical perspective
Authors: Ersoy Melih 
Published: July 2007

AbstractAs organizers of urban development in the modem sense, municipalities go back to the mid‐19th century in Turkey. The main theme of this article is an analysis of the trends over roughly 150 years. Three main headings are used within this framework: (a) the political and administrative level; (b) the level of financial policies; (c) historical development of the relationship between the central and local governments with respect to the legal and institutional framework of urban planning. This relationship is fundamentally paternalistic and authoritarian. The study investigates the authenticity of the currently pronounced liberal policies and the subsequent implementation mechanisms devised by the present administration over the past 8 years. Although a change of government seems imminent, most of the policies implemented are considered to be irreversible. Emphasis is given to an assessment of the claim that liberal governments have introduced positive changes in this structural mechanism, rather than a normative evaluation of this structural relationship.
Introducing administrative reform through the application of computer‐based information systems: A case study in India
Authors: Madon Shirin 
Published: July 2007

AbstractAdministrative reform in a number of developing countries has recently been directed at achieving decentralization through the diffusion of information technology to local areas. However, despite these efforts, the main objective of improving the effectiveness of development planning and monitoring systems remains unfulfilled because of poor integration between the process of technology adoption and the context within which the technology is implemented. There is a paucity of literature that aims to make explicit the nature of this integration. This paper aims to offer a contribution in this direction by describing the case of the computerized rural information systems project (CRISP) in India. The results show that during the first few years of implementation information technology served to reinforce existing inefficiencies within the bureaucracy. Information technology was later used as a vehicle for promoting change within the administration as local administrators acquired the flexibility to direct the technology towards their own requirements.
Public policy and competition amongst foreign investment projects: A case study of the Daya Bay economic development zone in South China
Authors: Liu Yuelun 
Published: July 2007

AbstractBy the second half of the 1980s, economic reform in China had produced differentiated interests between regions and a decentralized authority in the country. The central government had increasingly delegated its powers over funding, foreign exchange, resources and investment to local governments, and local governments in different regions had gained more autonomy to control the resources. This situation resulted in the proliferation of power centres at local levels where independent policies were generated to protect and pursue regional interests and resist the general policies of the centre. Conflicts of interest and competition intensified and became more popular than during previous periods. This tendency particularly manifested itself in local policy making concerning the introduction of foreign investment and projects. The case of the founding and evolution of the Daya Bay economic development zone in South China indicates the extent to which the competition between different coastal regions, and between the coastal regions and the central government had been generated. In this case study, the contextual changes that created a competitive environment will be reviewed briefly; the general conditions and motivation to establish the zone will be introduced; then the focus will be on analysing a series of policy formulations surrounding the competition for foreign investment projects. The case study is concluded by an assessment of the ‘incremental’ nature of Chinese policy making.
Myanmar: Experience with aid and management development during transition
Authors: Cook Paul 
Published: July 2007

AbstractThis article examines the role of the UNDP's management development programme in Myanmar between 1988 and 1992. It describes the economic and political background against which technical assistance was provided to assist the transition from a centrally planned to a market‐oriented economy. It is argued that present reforms can be interpreted as part of a survival strategy. The article analyses the principal findings of the various components of assistance between these years, and reports on implementation. In particular, attention is given to problems that occur in reforming both central bureaucratic institutions and patterns of decision‐making, and to changes in these key areas. The concluding part summarizes the lessons that arise from implementation and indicates that forms of state‐led planning are likely to continue alongside attempts to embody market principles.
Managing the renewal process: The case of Vietnam
Authors: Van Arkadie Brian 
Published: July 2007

AbstractThis article reviews the management of Vietnam's renewal process from the viewpoint of understanding the structure of the economy. It argues that, in terms of population, income and welfare, Vietnam has been relatively more successful than other less‐developed Asian countries. At the same time, historically, its economy was only to a minor degree under central government management—in contrast to the ex‐USSR and Eastern Europe—and hence it has been capable of a more flexible response. Its human capital stock is strong but performance has been constrained by war, embargo and mistakes of strategy. Against this background, the article traces the reform process, from the brief interlude with central planning through the inauguration of 'doi moi' after cessation of western and Chinese aid. The initial stress has been on macroeconomic stabilization. The problems of achieving this and the reasons for success are advanced. The next stage of the reform encompasses additional areas where international assistance may be relevant: the legal and institutional framework for the market economy, reform of government administration and improving enterprise management. Following the new constitution of 1992, public administration reform has come to the fore—both structural as well as in relation to central‐local government relations. This article describes the machinery for reform implementation as well as its scope, which encompasses the size and staffing of the civil service, salaries, human resource management, systems and procedures, turn‐round of state enterprises and management skills development. The article continues with a review of two key multilateral assistance projects. The path‐breaking UNDP Management Development Programme has conducted training in economic management and supported the development of the legal system. The project has had an important impact on policy‐makers and on policy discussion. A successor project will provide support to public administration reform in Vietnam. In the light of the current dramatic expansion in aid to Vietnam from DAR sources, the article concludes that control and coordination of overseas assistance by the government will be vital if aid is to be fully utilized and work in total support of Vietnam's existing development effort.
Factors that impede and facilitate management careers of women in the Malaysian civil service
Authors: Yousof Janat Mohd , Siegel Gilbert B. 
Published: July 2007

AbstractFemale and male managers of the Malaysian civil service were surveyed in an attempt to elucidate the factors that have facilitated and hindered their careers. The emphasis in this article is on career differences between women and men. Many of the conditions which inhibit the careers of female managers elsewhere in the world were also reported by those sampled. Family requirements and resulting role conflict were evident. Many women have not married. There was some evidence of sexual harassment. There is a suggestion that women may suffer from low self‐esteem and attribute their career progress primarily to luck. On the positive side, and despite a government policy that has resulted in more public resources for higher education being awarded to men than to women, women managers have achieved career success. This is largely because of the socioeconomic status of their parents and the apparent willingness of parents to educate female offspring who were not necessarily the first‐born.
Managing development policy in Botswana: Implementing reforms for rapid change
Authors: Hope Kempe Ronald 
Published: July 2007

AbstractIn recent years, Botswana's international reputation as a nation with sound development management has been slightly tarnished and the country's government has become increasingly concerned about the declining performance of its development management machinery. This concern of the government has been translated into a series of reform measures designed to bring about rapid change. This article discusses and analyses those reform measures and their potential impact on the development management process in Botswana. It was determined that the reform measures were, for the most part, carefully crafted and are being purposefully implemented, showing the nation, once again, to be one with good governance.
Local government in Kyrghyzstan
Authors: Tordoff William 
Published: July 2007

AbstractThe Kyrghyzstan government is making the difficult transition from a command economy under Communist Party control to a market economy within a pluralist political framework. For the time being, however, the reality of firm executive, hierarchical control persists. An Akim heads the government structure at provincial (oblast) and district (raion) levels and exercises considerable power; though formally answerable for his budget and socio‐economic programme to the local parliament (kenesh), his accountability is virtually nil. Some attention is given to equalizing revenue among the provinces: Bishkek, the capital city, which has oblast status, and Chui oblast provide substantial financial underpinning for the rest of the country. In April 1995 the government accepted the main provisions of the EIPA Report prepared under the European Union's TACIS project ED/052, the effect of which should be to enhance the government's ability to promote development. President Akayev sees local administration, local self‐government and privatization as important levers of reform.
Two‐Centre Model of Meson Production
Authors: Gierula J. 
Published: July 2007

AbstractThe multiple meson production is described by the two‐centre model as an isotropic emission of mesons from centres moving with velocity which is neither the velocity of nucleons escaping the collision nor the velocity of the centre‐of‐mass system of colliding nucleons. There is an evidence of the formation of two or, sometimes, of one such a centre called “fire‐ball”. This evidence is based on a large statistics of observations of transverse momenta and of the shape of log tan θL distributions in cosmic ray jets. Both these quantities are Lorentz‐invariant or nearly invariant and therefore can be safely measured in the laboratory frame of reference.
The Bootstrap Approach to Strong Interaction Symmetries
Authors: Tarjanne Pekka 
Published: July 2007

AbstractA review is given of the development and achievements of the bootstrap approach to elementary particle theory with special emphasis on its relation to the exact as well as broken internal symmetries and on the weaknesses of the presently used calculational techniques. The conjecture that the origin of unitary symmetry is completely dynamical leads to the discussion of several proposed mechanisms for spontaneous breakdown of this symmetry. The phenomenological octet enhancement found to exist in strong, electromagnetic as well as weak processes is studied in connection with the dynamical content of solutions with different symmetry character. In an appendix it is shown that in the superconductor model of elementary particle symmetries the octet enhancement can be the consequence of simple stability criteria.
Independent Electron Positron Pair Production Events and Energy Loss
Authors: Gilson J. G. 
Published: July 2007

AbstractBy defining electron positron pair production events in such a way that they are statistically independent, it is possible to introduce a graphical representation of ‘events’. This definition is then used to find the energy lost by an external field in the form of induced pairs when the induced current is a non‐linear functional of the driving field.
CP, T and CPT Invariance in Neutral Kaon Decays
Authors: Dass G. V. 
Published: July 2007

AbstractA brief survey of the phenomenology (with emphasis on its present status) of CP, T and CPT invariance in neutral kaon decays is given. Existing limits on the invariances of the mass matrix of the K0−K̄0 system are stated. Also included are our new results and also those of DASS and KABIR for limits on these invariances for the decay amplitudes, obtained by using existing data, and the available information on the total mass matrix.The CPT invariant part of amplitudes for decay to the I = 0 and I = 2, ππ channels is T (and CP) invariant, in the Eberhard phase convention, to about 0.4% and about 4% respectively; the corresponding T invariant part of these amplitudes is CPT (and CP) invariant to about 1% and about 5% respectively. A limit similar to this last one (5%) was already obtained in the literature by making a further approximation. The CP, T and CPT invariant part of the averaged ΔS = − ΔQ amplitude in K13 decay is found to be less than about 5% of the corresponding ΔS = ΔQ amplitude; the T invariant part of the difference of the averaged ΔS = ΔQ and the averaged ΔS = − ΔQ amplitudes is CPT (and CP) invariant to about 1%. A limit similar to this one (1%) was also obtained in the literature by making a further assumption about the mass matrix.These amplitude limits are expected to have about one significant figure accuracy. Due to large experimental errors, the amplitude limits on the other non‐invariance parameters for the above channels are not very good. Difficulties in deriving corresponding parameters for the 3π channel are noted.In certain respects, CPT invariance has been verified experimentally to a poorer accuracy than CP invariance and T invariance.
Single Particle Distributions from Veneziano Amplitudes I
Authors: Biebl K. J. , Bebel D. , Ebert D. 
Published: July 2007

AbstractThe single particle distribution for the inclusive reaction A + B → C + anything is calculated from the discontinuity of the Veneziano six point function in the tree approximation and investigated in different kinematical regions. Power series expansions around x = 1 and Barnes‐Mellin integral representations suitable for expansions around x = 0 are presented. For large transverse momenta the single particle distribution shows an exponential decrease in p⟂2 with an x dependent slope assuming the value 4 α′ for x = 0. For small transverse momenta the behaviour of the distribution function in the pionization region is determined by a logarithmic singularity at the unphysical point p⟂2 = −mc2. In addition single particle distributions following from two special types of Pomeron‐background modified B6 functions are studied. Most of the results are similar to those obtained with the unmodified B6 function. This applies in particular to the pionization region, where the asymptotic p⟂2‐slope 4α′ is replaced by a “background slope” 4β′.