bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Monitoring the metropolitanization process
Authors: Fuguitt Glenn V. , Heaton Tim B. , Lichter Daniel T. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Alternative approaches have led to different interpretations of the metropolitanization process in the United States. We identify and illustrate several methods and procedures for monitoring metropolitan-nonmetropolitan population change using the 1950–1980 U.S. decennial censuses. Two basic approaches are compared: constant area approaches and component methods. In addition, we assess the effects of changing metropolitan definitions on metropolitan-nonmetropolitan growth. The results clearly reveal that the underlying mechanics of metropolitanization not only are complex but have changed substantially during the 1950–1980 period. We conclude with observations regarding the use of these procedures in future research.
Household income and child survival in Egypt
Authors: Casterline John B. , Cooksey Elizabeth C. , Ismail Abdel Fattah E. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This article uses household-level economic and fertility survey data to examine the relationship between household income and child survival in Egypt. Income has little effect on infant mortality but is inversely related to mortality in early childhood. The relationship persists with other associated socioeconomic variables controlled. The mechanisms underlying the income effects are not evident from this analysis: income differentials in sources of household drinking water, type of toilet facilities, and maternal demographic characteristics do not explain the net impact of income on child mortality. The absence of effects on child survival of the size of the place of residence and the relatively weak effects of maternal schooling are also notable.
Recent trends in marital disruption
Authors: Martin Teresa Castro , Bumpass Larry L. 
Published: March 2007

AbstractThe post-1980 decline in the crude divorce rate must be interpreted in the context of the long-term trend and in terms of what we know about composition effects on crude measures—particularly given shifts in age at marriage and the age composition effects of the baby boom. Data from the June 1985 Current Population Survey permit more detailed, exposure-specific measurements as well as the use of separation as the event terminating marriage. Estimates from these data suggest a decline followed by a recovery. Taking into account well-known levels of underreporting, we find that recent rates imply that about two-thirds of all first marriages are likely to end in separation or divorce. We examine the persistence of major differences in marital stability and evaluate the comparative stability of first and second marriages.
Components of change in adolescent fertility, 1971–1979
Authors: Nathanson Constance A. , Kim Young J. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This article disaggregates change in adolescent fertility between 1971 and 1979 into four components: change in marriage patterns, in nonmarital sex, in pregnancy, and in birth. It also assesses quantitatively the relative contribution of each component to the change over time in two fertility outcomes: the probability of a nonmarital live birth and, given a live birth, the odds of its being nonmarital. The changes in the probability of sexual debut prior to marriage and in marriage patterns themselves are the two most important contributors to these changes. The influence on the change in adolescent fertility outcomes of the decreased likelihood of marriage following a nonmarital pregnancy was compensated for by the increased use of abortion to ter-minate the pregnancy.
The influence of individual and historical time on marital dissolution
Authors: Thornton Arland , Rodgers Willard L. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper examines the influence of individual development and historical change on marital dissolution. Data from the vital statistics system of the United States and from the June 1980Current Population Survey are used to examine the experience of marriage cohorts from 1905 through 1975 and the periods from 1922 through 1979. The historical patterns can best be explained as effects of period rather than of birth or marriage cohort, and the individual patterns can be explained best as effects of age and age at marriage rather than of marital duration.
Reproductive patterns and child mortality in guatemala
Authors: Pebley Anne R. , Stupp Paul W. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
In this paper, we investigate the association of child mortality with maternal age, parity, birth spacing, and socioeconomic status, in a sample of Guatemalan children who were included in a public health intervention program. Our results indicate that maternal age, birth order, and the length of the previous and following birth intervals all have a significant impact on the risk of child mortality and that these associations cannot be accounted for by differences in breastfeeding, socioeconomic status, or the survival status of the previous child.
Constraints to the fulfillment of residential preferences among Texas homebuyers
Authors: Hwang Sean-Shong , Albrecht Don E. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
A 1983 survey of Texas homebuyers reveals a high degree of mismatch between their preferred and actual residences. Analysis indicates that the logit of fulfilling residential preference is largely determined by the type of area preferred and the occupation and age of the homebuyer. Mismatch is most common among homebuyers preferring a suburban location, less so for those preferring nonmetropolitan residences, and lowest among people preferring central cities. Occupation as a social structural variable also affects homebuyers ’ chance of fulfilling residential preference. Professionals are more likely to fulfill their residential preferences than persons in other occupations. Finally, younger persons suffer a higher degree of residential mismatch than older persons.
Analyzing fertility histories: Do restrictions bias results?
Authors: Rindfuss Ronald R. , Bumpass Larry L. , Palmore James A. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The practice of collecting information on only the last closed and the open birth intervals results in a biased set of intervals. Given this bias, can analysis of these intervals provide unbiased estimates of the effects of socioeconomic and proximate variables on birth interval dynamics? Using an unrestricted data set, we examine the determinants of birth interval dynamics on both a set of unbiased intervals and a set of intervals that only include last closed and open intervals. The surprising result is that the biased set of intervals gives unbiased results regarding the structure of the effects of socioeconomic and proximate variables.
Agricultural Opportunity and Marriage: The United States at the Turn of the Century
Authors: Landale Nancy S. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This article focuses on the marriage behavior of rural white males in the United States at the turn of the century. The principal goal of the analysis is to assess the role of agricultural opportunity in determining nuptial timing and prevalence. The major issue addressed is whether restricted opportunity in farming retarded entry into marriage. Overall, the findings suggest that rural young men were less likely to enter marriage when local opportunity in agriculture was poor. One mechanism through which the local opportunity structure influenced nuptiality was occupational choice. Young men who entered nonagricultural pursuits or who were employed as farm laborers were far less likely to have married than young men who became farmers.
Children Among the Poor
Authors: Smith James P. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This article investigates a number of issues that clarify the premises underlying the assignment of children into poverty. Conventional definitions indicate much larger poverty rates among children than among adults. Three possible theoretical reasons for this greater representation of children among the poor are explored. It is shown that the most direct mechanism—poorer parents having more children—is of little importance. Instead, the greater incidence of poverty among children is the result of (1) a labor supply effect of children’s reducing family income as mothers work less and (2) the assumption of greater household “needs” when children are present. The research presented here also demonstrates that long-term permanent poverty rates among children are much lower than the conventional yearly measures.
Fertility, Employment, and Child-Care Costs
Authors: Blau David M. , Robins Philip K. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
A sample of labor-market and birth histories is used to estimate the effects of child-care costs on employment and fertility decisions. A reduced-form empirical analysis is performed, which is based on hazard functions for transitions among various fertility–employment states. Higher child-care costs result in a lower birth rate for nonemployed women but not for employed women. Higher child-care costs also lead to an increase in the rate of leaving employment and a reduction in the rate of entering employment. The results suggest that potential behavioral effects of child-care subsidies could be significant and should be taken into account when alternative child-care policies are being debated.
Demographic Cycles, Cohort Size, and Earnings
Authors: Berger Mark C. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This article examines whether position in the demographic cycle is an important factor in determining earnings and earnings growth. Earnings equations for white males are estimated by using March Current Population Survey data. Position in the demographic cycle is captured by including both measures of own cohort size and the size of surrounding cohorts in the estimated earnings equations. Position in the demographic cycle matters. Increases in own cohort size lead to flatter earnings profiles, whereas increases in the size of surrounding cohorts are associated with steeper earnings profiles. The net effect is that those who enter the labor market before or after the peak of the demographic cycle start out with lower earnings but experience faster earnings growth. This pattern is uniform across all schooling groups: high school dropouts, high school graduates, those with some college, and college graduates.
Changes in cohort wealth over a generation
Authors: David Martin H. , Menchik Paul L. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Empirical computation of expected wealth is hampered by two problems: mortality risks vary in the population and over time; and observation of net estates for most cohorts is truncated, as some individuals in a cohort survive the calendar date on which observation is terminated. These two problems are solved in estimating cohort wealth for a sample of Wisconsin taxpayers. Hazard rate models of differential occupational mortality risks were estimated from the occupational information on the tax records. Values of net estate are simulated for individuals in each birth cohort who survived. Survivors have characteristics that imply greater wealth holdings than the deceased in every birth year covered by the study (1890–1924). Because of this, estimates of wealth-age relationships produced by the estate multiplier method for any given year will have a serious downward bias. Longitudinal data imply that dissaving does not occur after age 65.
Household composition choices of older unmarried women
Authors: Wolf Douglas A. , Soldo Beth J. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This article extends previous research on the household composition of older unmarried women, using a statistical model that treats each of a woman’s surviving children as a distinct potential provider of a shared household. Additional possibilities— living alone, living with other nuclear-family relatives, and living with others— are also recognized, providing a varied range of household-structure opportunities for older women. The approach allows us to identify individual child attributes associated with the propensity to coreside with the older unmarried mother. The results confirm earlier findings regarding the importance of income, age, and disability status as determinants of the household composition of older women. We find, however, that unmarried children, especially sons, are more likely to share a household with an elderly mother than are married children. Working reduces the likelihood that a married daughter will live with her older mother. Overall, the findings suggest that the attributes, more so than the sheer numbers, of living children influence the household structure of their mothers.
Multinomial and conditional logit discrete-choice models in demography
Authors: Hoffman Saul D. , Duncan Greg J. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Although discrete-choice statistical techniques have been used with increasing regularity in demographic analyses, Mcl’adden’s conditional logit model is less well known and seldom used. Conditional logit models are appropriate when the choice among alternatives is modeled as a function of the characteristics of the alternatives, rather than (or in addition to) the characteristics of the individual making the choice. We argue that this feature of conditionallogit makes it more appropriate for estimating behavioral models. In this article, the conditional logit model is presented and compared with the more familiar multinomial logit model. The difference between the two techniques is illustrated with an analysis of the choice of marital and welfare status by divorced or separated women.
Pregnancy wantedness and the early initiation of prenatal care
Authors: Joyce Theodore J. , Grossman Michael 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The study examines the impact of the wantedness of a pregnancy on the demand for early prenatal care. Using a cohort of pregnant women in New YorkCity, we estimate a prenatal care demand function in which we control for the probability of giving birth, given a woman is pregnant. We interpret this control as a measure of wantedness, The results indicate that if the black and Hispanic women who aborted had instead given birth, they would have delayed the initiation of prenatal care, on average, more than three-quarters of a month longer than the mean number of months of delay that were actually observed for the women who gave birth. Byallowing women to terminate an unwanted pregnancy, induced abortion increases the average use of prenatal care among black and Hispanic women relative to what would have been observed if the women who aborted had instead given birth.
The growth of families headed by women: 1950–1980
Authors: Wojtkiewicz Roger A. , McLanahan Sara S. , Garfinkel Irwin 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
In recent decades, the number of families headed by women has increased dramatically. In this article, we use U.S. census data from 1950 to 1980 to consider the extent to which population growth, fertility change, decreased marriage, increased divorce, and increased household headship have contributed to the growth of femaleheaded families. For white women, the major source of growth during the 1960s and 1970s was an increase in the number of formerly married mothers due to increased divorce and decreased remarriage. There is a similar pattern for black women for the 1960–1970 period. During the 1970–1980 decade, however, the major source of growth for black women was an increase in the number of never-married mothers due to decreased marriage and increased fertility among nonmarried women.
Mobility and adjustments: Paths to the resolution of residential stress
Authors: Deane Glenn D. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
In theory, residential mobility is a response to environmental stress only if households do not reduce dissatisfaction through other alternatives, such as housing improvements or repairs. Despite the attention given to stress-reducing alternatives, however, no attempt has been made to test empirically the residential satisfaction model with adjustments. Using data from the Annual Housing Survey: 1978–1981, I model three stages in the mobility process and investigate potential sources of specification error in previous tests. Blocks of family cycle, background/action state, and location/housing variables are shown to affect adjusting significantly. Residential satisfaction strongly affectsmobility preferences; and all theoretically relevant blocks of explanatory variables predict mobility. Alternatives to mobility should be included in the residential satisfaction model.
Determinants of short- and long-term mobility expectations for home owners and renters
Authors: McHugh Kevin E. , Gober Patricia , Reid Neil 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Confusion about the role of residential satisfaction vis-a-vis structural factors in the mobility process stems from the failure to examine the determinants of mobility over varying time frames and housing tenures. Using survey data for a random sample of 580 Phoenix-area households, we test models of short-term (l year) and long-term (5 years) mobility expectations for home owners and renters. The results show that residential satisfaction mediates the effects of structural variables on mobility expectations in the short term for home owners. In the long-term model for home owners and the short-term model for renters, the role of satisfaction as an intervening force declines in relative importance. Among renters, structural variables operate directly on long-term mobility expectations.
Effects of agricultural development policies on migration in peninsular Malaysia
Authors: Baydar Nazli , White Michael J. , Simkins Charles , Babakol Ozer 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
State planning plays a central role in Malaysia’s social and economic development. The government’s rural development policies are designed to promote agricultural incomes and help counterbalance ethnic inequalities. The Federal Land Development Authority (FELDA) implements one of the internationally most successful land development and resettlement programs. In this article, we quantify the impact of FELDA settlements on local out-migration rates, linking macro and micro approaches and using data from the Malaysian Family Life Survey, national censuses, and other sources. A model of instantaneous migration rates specifies an individual’s migration rate as a function of individual-level sociodemographic characteristics, the level of urbanization of the origin and destination, and the extent of rural development at the district of current residence. Our results show that in the late 1960s and early 1970s, the existence of rural development centers in a district reduced the levels of outmigration to pre-1965 levels.
Simplified birth rate estimates under nonstable conditions
Authors: Venkatacharya K. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Coale’s robust birth rate estimate, obtained by adjusting the birth rate of a stable population selected by matching the observed population of both sexes under the age of 15, C(15), and the probability of survival of births to age 5, l5, is shown to be equal to the birth rate obtainable by reverse surviving the proportion under the age of 15. Variations of matching the criterion of Coale’s method to the rate of increase and C(l5) or l5 are shown to lead to variants of Coale’s birth rate estimate that are also nearly equal to the reverse survival birth rate based on C(15). A simplified birth rate estimate that does not require reference to models of life tables or stable populations is suggested and some of its applications are illustrated.
Rural-to-Urban migration and child survival in Senegal
Authors: Brockerhoff Martin 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Analysis of the 1986 Senegal Demographic and Health Survey reveals that mothers may be able to improve their children’s survival chances by migrating from the countryside to the city. Children of urban migrants, however, continue to experience a much higher risk of mortality before the age of 5 than children of urban nonmigrants, even after the mother has lived in the city for several years. This migrant mortality disadvantage persists when controlling for numerous socioeconomic and fertility-related factors typically associated with child mortality in developing countries, which also serve as indicators of migrant selection and adaptation.
Alternative Projections of the U.S. population
Authors: Ahlburg Dennis A. , Vaupel James W. 
Published: March 2007

AbstractThe U. S. Bureau of the Census recently released a set of population projections that include middle and high projections that we argue are too conservative. The projections discount the possibility of future baby booms and assume slow rates of mortality decline and low levels of immigration. In this article we explore the impact on the size and age composition of the U. S. population of alternative scenarios of plausible fertility, mortality, and immigration assumptions. We conclude that (I) the Census Bureau’s highest projection might be interpreted as a reasonable middle projection, (2) a reasonable high projection would yield a U.S. population in 2080 some 300 million persons larger than the Bureau’s highest projection, with the population 85 and older more than twice the Bureau’s greatest estimate, and (3) uncertainty about the pace of population growth is substantially greater than the Bureau’s projections suggest.
Child care arrangements and fertility: An analysis of two-earner households
Authors: Lehrer Evelyn L. , Kawasaki Seiichi 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The determinants of child care arrangements and relations between child care and fertility are examined using data on two-earner households from the 1976 National Survey of Family Growth. We find that the probability of relying on market arrangements is higher among families in which the husband’s income, the wife’s wage, and the level of the wife’s labor supply are high; these households are likely to benefit the most from subsidies to the market forms of care that are small relative to the total cost of care (e.g. the present system of tax credits). In addition, parental education, family size, child’s age, race, religion, and place of residence have important influences on the choice of child care mode. When other factors are held constant, reliance on a relative for child care is positively associated with intentions to have further children among couples with infants and preschoolers.
Entry into marriage and parenthood by young men and women: The influence of family background
Authors: Michael Robert T. , Tuma Nancy Brandon 
Published: March 2007

AbstractWe investigate the influence of family background on early entry into marriage and parenthood among white, Hispanic, and black men and women ages 14 to 22 in the first (1979) wave of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Family background is highly associated with early entry into marriage for whites of both genders and female Hispanics and also with early entry into parenthood for all groups except black males. Large group differences in family characteristics explain most of the difference between white and Hispanic women in early marriage and parenthood and about half the difference in early parenthood between black and white women but do not explain the observed variations among other race-gender groups.
Rural-urban mobility in Thailand: A decision-making approach
Authors: Fuller Theodore D. , Lightfoot Paul , Kamnuansilpa Peerasit 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
An individual behavioral model of the decision-making process for rural-urban mobility is applied to longitudinal data from an area of Northeast Thailand where circular rural-urban movement dominates. The individual-level variables included in the model are: recent mobility history, urban social contacts, information about urban areas, evaluations of various locations, migration plans, and actual movements in the period subsequent to an initial interview. The empirical results provide relatively strong support for the model. From the standpoint of intervention, information appears to be a key variable in the mobility process.