bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Is neighborhood racial succession place-specific?
Authors: Lee Barrett A. , Wood Peter B. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper evaluates the geographic generality of the succession model of neighborhood racial change for the period 1970 to 1980. Using census data on racially mixed tracts, we determine whether white-to-black compositional shifts were equally common across the four regions and 58 central cities in our sample. Substantial variation occurred by region in the incidence and magnitude of racial succession; tracts in western cities departed most markedly from expectations. Even in other regions, some cities experienced more numerous instances of stability and displacement than of succession. These region and city effects persist when neighborhood characteristics believed to influence racial transition are controlled.
Increasing contraceptive use in Bangladesh: The role of demand and supply factors
Authors: DeGraff Deborah S. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This article analyzes the determinants of contraceptive use in Bangladesh, focusing on the roles of demand for additional children and of family planning service supply. Data from the Matlab Family Planning Health Services Project are used to examine the contributions of these factors to the difference in prevalence of modern contraceptive use between the project area and a control area served by the government family planning and health programs. Results of multivariate analysis deriving from the Easterlin synthesis framework show the importance of family planning supply factors in reducing psychic and resource costs of fertility regulation and in activating latent demand for contraception. Demand for birth limiting and for birth spacing emerge as important explanatory factors; demand for birth spacing is greater in the project area, and both demand measures exert a stronger effect on contraceptive behavior in that area.
Pregnancy avoidance and coital behavior
Authors: Tsui Amy O. , de Silva S. Victor , Marinshaw Ruth 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This study proposes a behavioral model that identifies determinants of coital activity in the context of pregnancy avoidance and assesses the relationships using weekly panel data collected on 300 rural married women in Sri Lanka in 1988. We discuss the utility of the design, which is similar to that of an epidemiological surveillance system, for the measurement of coital behavior and pregnancy risk perceptions. Perceptions of pregnancy risk, spousal agreement on sexual relations, menstrual and lactational status, and cycle timing, all measured daily, are found to influence significantly the probability of coitus on that day. The findings suggest that substantial gains in studying fertility regulation are likely from closer investigation of the behavioral connections between motivation for pregnancy avoidance and coital incidence. Comparison of such panel data with those of cross-sectional sample surveys also provides insights into the validity of measures of coital and contraceptive behavior.
Momentum and the growth-free segment of a population
Authors: Kim Young J. , Schoen Robert , Sarma P. Sankara 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
In the scenario of a sudden drop in fertility to replacement level, Preston (1986) argued that the population segment under age T, the length of generation, remained growth-free. Here we first present a new relationship for the momentum of any observed population as the ratio of 1) the proportion of the observed population under the mean age at childbearing to 2) the proportion of its life table population under that mean age. We then use that relationship to demonstrate Preston’s approximation. Growth factors for other population segments are also presented. When the initial population is stable, momentum can be approximated as a function of the net reproduction rate alone.
Using surname data in U.S. Puerto Rican mortality analysis
Authors: Rosenwaike Ira , Hempstead Katherine , Rogers Richard G. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Evidence suggests that among mainland-born decedents, Hispanic (particularly Puerto Rican) origin may have been underreported in states that have added an ancestry item to their death certificates. This study uses the 1980 Census Bureau Spanish-surname list to code surnames on New York City death certificates. By examining the correspondence between surname type and the response to the ancestry item, we identify potential underreporting of Hispanic ethnicity for Spanish-surnamed decedents. A surname-based method then is used to adjust mortality data for mainland-born Puerto Rican decedents.
African-American marriage in 1910: Beneath the surface of census data
Authors: Preston Samuel H. , Lim Suet , Morgan S. Philip 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper examines the quality of information about marital status, marital duration, and marriage order among African-American women in the U.S. Census of 1910. It compares the reported prevalence of widowhood to estimates of widowhood based on the mortality of black men and on the ages of women at first marriage. It also compares the reported distributions of duration of first marriage to estimates based on mortality and on age at first marriage. It concludes that census reports are subject to serious error. Widowhood is overreported, and marital turnover appears to have been faster than implied by census reports. The prevelance of “own children” is used to confirm these conclusions and to suggest motivations for misreporting.
Heterogeneity and selection in multistate population analysis
Authors: Rogers Andrei 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
If one subgroup of individuals in a population has a higher death rate than the others, then over time the surviving population will include a larger share of those with the lower death rate, As a result, the aggregate average death rate for this increasingly more robust population will decline. This conclusion, however, can be drawn only for nonrecurrent events experienced by populations that do not exchange members with one another—that is, for noninteracting populations. Studies of changes in marital status, labor force activity, residential location, and active life, for example, all should focus on patterns of recurrent events among interacting populations (that is, multistate populations). Selection arising from heterogeneity will occur, but the consequences for average measures become unpredictable a priori. This paper explores such aspects of the selection effects of heterogeneity in multistate populations and illuminates some of their consequences for commonly used rates.
Diversity in experiences of parental structure during childhood and adolescence
Authors: Wojtkiewicz Roger A. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The proportion of children living in parental structures other than mother/father has increased in recent decades because of increased separation/divorce and greater prevalence of nonmarital childbearing. This study uses the National Survey of Families and, Households to examine the parental structure experiences of children who had ever lived in nonintact families. The results show considerable variation in experiences among such children. The analysis illustrates the diversity by considering parental structure experiences given I) mother-only family at birth, 2) mother/father family at birth and later parental marital disruption, and 3) parental structure at age 15.
A method for calculating rates of induced abortion
Authors: Foreit Karen G. , Nortman Dorothy L. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Accurate measurement of induced abortion is necessary for understanding the fertility dynamics of a population and for making projections about the future. Changes in abortion rates can amplify or dampen the impact of changes in contraception. This paper presents a methodology for calculating marital induced abortion rates from observed marital fertility and contraceptive prevalence and for modeling the impact of substituting contraception for abortion on future fertility. The methodology is validated against observed abortion complications in three populations, and the impact of substituting contraception for abortion on expected fertility is demonstrated.
Work and Retirement Among a Cohort of Older Men in the United States, 1966–1983
Authors: Hayward Mark D. , Grady William R. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Multivariate increment-decrement working life tables are estimated for a cohort of older men in the United States for the period 1966–1983. The approach taken allows multiple processes to be simultaneously incorporated into a single model, resulting in a more realistic portrayal of a cohort’s late-life labor force behavior. In addition, because the life table model is developed from multivariate hazard equations, we identify the effects of sociodemographic characteristics on the potentially complex process by which the labor force career is ended. In contrast to the assumed homogeneity of previous working life table analyses, the present study shows marked differences in labor force mobility and working and nonworking life expectancy according to occupation, class of worker, education, race, and marital status. We briefly discuss the implications of these findings for inequities of access to retirement, private and public pension consumption, and future changes in the retirement process.
Demographic Seasonality and Development: The Effects of Agricultural Colonialism in Taiwan, 1906–1942
Authors: Anderton Douglas L. , Barrett Richard E. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Nearly all developed countries have experienced dramatic declines in the seasonality of demographic behavior over the last century. This article examines seasonal behavior in the population of Taiwan between 1906 and 1942, during Japanese colonial rule. First, we analyze seasonal demographic cycles and their ties to the cultural calendar and agriculture. Second, we compare seasonality in two regions (Xinzhu and Tainan) that experienced different agricultural development under the colonial regime. Findings demonstrate that demographic seasonality was less pronounced when urban development and colonial agricultural intensification produced more heterogeneous seasonal patterns of labor. We find that changes in agricultural organization, rather than purely a shift to nonagricultural production, may significantly reduce established seasonal timing of demographic behavior.
The Effect of Marital Disruption on Children’s Health
Authors: Mauldon Jane 
Published: March 2007

AbstractThis study uses retrospective illness histories to investigate whether children’s health deteriorates after parental separation. Separation is associated with illness in a multivariate cross-sectional analysis as well as in an analysis of a sample of disrupted children only, in which illness rates before and after separation are compared. Three explanations are hypothesized: (1) divorce reduces the resources available to children, (2) the stress of divorce depletes children’s health, and (3) frailer children are selected into divorce. The first hypothesis has stronger support than the second, but the data are too poor for a rigorous test of either. The selection hypothesis is not supported.
Remarriage Patterns of Black and White Women: Reassessing the Role of Educational Attainment
Authors: Smock Pamela J. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Using data from the National Survey of Families and Households, this article illustrates the role of educational attainment in the remarriage patterns of black and white women. For whites, remarriage propensities do not differ significantly by schooling level. For blacks, on the other hand, remarriage and education are positively associated, net of the effects of other variables such as age at separation and the number of children. Very few black high school dropouts in the sample had remarried 10 years after separation. The results suggest that for blacks, those with the worst socioeconomic prospects are least likely to remarry.
The determinants of effective fecundability based on the first birth interval
Authors: Kallan Jeffrey , Udry J. Richard 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
There are substantial differences in fecundability among nine developing countries in different parts of the world. In addition, within countries, later age at marriage has a clear, positive, nonlinear effect on fecundability. Women with higher education and those with more educated husbands have higher fecundability. Urban residents have higher fecundability than rural. The higher fecundability of more recent cohorts is the most consistent observation. Since those variables most frequently shown to have inverse relationships to fertility show direct relationships to fecundability within populations, the role offecundability as a proximate variable in models of the determinants of fertility requires further specification.
An economic model of teenage pregnancy decision-making
Authors: Leibowitz Arleen , Eisen Marvin , Chow Winston K. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
In this paper, we model unmarried teenagers’ decisions about their pregnancy outcome by considering that the teenager contrasts her expected utility (1) as a married mother, (2) as an unmarried mother, or (3) after abortion. We use crosssectional data on 297 California teenagers aged 13-19 who were pregnant for the first time between 1972 and 1974. Both Anglo and Mexican-American girls are included. We find that pregnant girls who are eligible for or are receiving public assistance are more likely to give birth and remain unmarried. Teenagers with greater time values are more likely to choose abortion, and Mexican-American girls are more likely to carry their pregnancies to term.
The decline in occupational sex segregation during the 19705: census and CPS comparisons
Authors: Bianchi Suzanne M. , Rytina Nancy 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
An assessment of changes in occupational sex segregation during the 1970s, as measured by the Census and Current Population Survey, is complicated by the recent reclassification of occupations. Once this is taken into account, it is apparent from both the Census and the CPS that there was a decline in occupational sex segregation in the 1970s and that the decline was probably more substantial than in the 1960s.
Accounting for migration in cohort-component projections of state and local populations
Authors: Smith Stanley K. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Migration is the most difficult component of state and local population growth to forecast accurately because it is more volatile than either births or deaths, and subject to much larger fluctuations within a short period of time. In addition, migration rates can be based on several different measures of migration and the base population. The choice of the appropriate base population has received little attention from demographic researchers, but can have a tremendous impact on population projections. In this article, I develop three different models for projecting migration, each using a different denominator for migration rates. Population projections for ten states are made, using identical data and cohort component techniques, except for the different formulations of migration rates. Differences among the three sets of projections are noted, and conclusions are drawn regarding their usefulness as forecasts of population growth.
Religion and fertility in the United States: The importance of marriage patterns and hispanic origin
Authors: Mosher William D. , Johnson David P. , Horn Marjorie C. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The marital fertility of white Catholic wives in the United States was higher than that of non-Catholic wives in 1977–1981, but when Hispanics were excluded, the differential disappeared; therefore, the Catholic-non-Catholic differential in recent years was due entirely to the higher fertility of Hispanic Catholics. The Total Fertility Rates (TFR) of Catholics were slightly lower in 1977–1981 than those for white Protestants, primarily because Catholic women tend to marry later than Protestant women. This finding was confirmed by multivariate analysis of data on children ever born. We examine some additional data and various theories to speculate on whether these patterns will last.
Statistics and politics: The “hispanic issue” in the 1980 census
Authors: Choldin Harvey M. 
Published: March 2007

AbstractBased upon documents and interviews, this paper presents an analytical history of interactions between the United States Bureau of the Census and Mexican-American leaders preparatory to the 1980 census. Participants confronted several issues, such as defining Hispanic ethnicity, designing instruments and field procedures, and maximizing public participation. Although census officials and ethnic leaders aimed at getting a “full count,” the former emphasized scientific objectives while the latter emphasized the political.
Examination of the generalized age distribution
Authors: Kim Young J. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The generalized age distribution for any population in continuous time obtained by Bennett and Horiuchi (1981) and Preston and Coale (1982) is derived in the discrete time formulation in the first part of this paper. Other expressions that follow from the age distribution in Preston-Coale are also presented in discrete time and age. Then the Preston-Coale procedure of using these expressions to estimate mortality when demographic data are defective is critically examined. It is noted that the series of age-specific growth rates, the essential feature of the new expressions, reflects defective census age distributions exactly so that a demographic measure estimated by the Preston-Coale procedure is still affected by the defective data.
The Biodemography of Variation in Human Frailty
Authors: Weiss Kenneth M. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
A population is composed of individuals who are heterogeneous in their susceptibility to death and disease. This heterogeneity is reflected in the age-specific incidence or mortality (hazard) function. This variation has typically been hidden—that is, not measured directly—and has generally been modeled in a purely empirical statistical way, because there is no theory in demography for the distribution of frailty. A substantial fraction of variation in frailty, however, has an underlying genetic basis, for which there is a formal theory. This theory, based on evolutionary biology and on the nature of mendelian transmission, provides prior constraints on the distribution of variation in the population as well as providing methods for identifying genes involved in many important diseases. The accumulating effects of environmental exposures with age are another major component of variation in frailty. In some important instances, this variation and its effect on the age-specific hazard function can also be understood in terms of cause-specific biological processes. These biological considerations may enable demographers to model frailty, and thus mortality, in a better way.
Estimation of Exposure Time Distributions
Authors: Alho Juha M. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
In many demographic analyses, such as the assessment of environmental cancer risks, one may be interested not only in the age-by-state distribution of the population but also in the distribution of the population by time spent in a given state. States can represent geographic areas, marital statuses, labor force participation, or states of epidemiologic exposure. Recursive formulas for the calculation of the distribution of the population according to exposure time are derived under time-invariant state transition rates. Although populations can have identical growth rates and identical age-by-state distributions, they can have very different distributions by exposure time. An application to the analysis of carcinogenic exposure states is given, using data from Finland. The effect of population heterogeneity on the estimated exposure time distributions is studied.
Wife or frau, women do worse: A comparison of men and women in the United States and Germany after marital dissolution
Authors: Burkhauser Richard V. , Duncan Greg J. , Hauser Richard , Berntsen Roland 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and the German Socio-Economic Panel show that in the Federal Republic of Germany, women experience even sharper drops in economic status immediately after a marital split than in the United States, while German and American men fare about the same. German social policy does little to reduce the disparities.
A longitudinal analysis of household and nonhousehold living arrangements in later life
Authors: Mutchler Jan E. , Burr Jeffrey A. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Most explanatory models of living arrangements in later life link the decision process surrounding choice of living arrangement to personal resources such as income and health. Applications of these models, however, are based for the most part on crosssectional rather than longitudinal data. In this paper we examine living arrangements in later life among the nonmarried population aged 55 and over, using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation. We observe individuals as they change living arrangements, die, or become institutionalized. Our results suggest that economic resources dominate the decision-making process in transitions across different household arrangements, whereas health is most important in explaining institutionalization.
Variations on two themes: Racial and ethnic patterns in the attainment of suburban residence
Authors: Alba Richard D. , Logan John R. 
Published: March 2007

AbstractTo investigate racial and ethnic diversity in suburbanization, we draw on two complementary theoretical traditions, which we label “assimilation” and “stratification.” Our analytic model is multilevel, and includes variables characterizing individuals, households, and metropolitan contexts. We use it to analyze the determinants of suburban versus central-city residence for 11 racial/ethnic groups. The analysis reveals that family status, socioeconomic, and assimilation variables influence the suburbanization process rather consistently. We take this finding as evidence in favor of the assimilation model. These effects display group variations, however, in a manner predicted by the stratification model. There are also suburbanization differences among metropolitan areas, particularly related to the relative economic status of cities and their suburbs, and between the northeast/north central regions and the south/west. Finally, we conclude that suburbanization is variable across the groups in a way that is not captured by broad categories such as “Asian” or “Hispanic.”
Heterogeneity and the implied dynamics of regional growth rates: Was the nonmetropolitan turnaround an artifact of aggregation?
Authors: Kephart George 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The spatial units of analysis employed in urban and regional research display considerable internal heterogeneity in terms of the social, demographic, and economic variables used to describe them. One implication of this has been overlooked in the literature, namely, that aggregate rates may have an implicit dynamic of change. Differential internal rates modify the composition of the aggregate, changing the relative importance of subareas in determining the aggregate rate. To demonstrate this, methods for decomposing the change in growth rates due to heterogeneity are developed and applied to nonmetropolitan growth rates between 1950 and 1980. Internal heterogeneity was found to be an important, and sometimes even a dominant, component of change. Furthermore, the analysis sheds considerable light on the reasons for the changes in aggregate rates that marked the nonmetropolitan turnaround.