bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
The effect of changing demographic composition on recent trends in underemployment
Authors: Clogg Clifford C. , Shockey James W. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The effect of changing age-sex composition on trends in unemployment and underemployment from 1969 to 1980 is estimated. This effect is positive as anticipated, but negligible in both absolute and relative terms. For example, no more than .35 percent of the increase in unemployment between 1969 and 1980 can be attributed to compositional factors. The secular rise in unemployment and underemployment from the late 1960s into the 1980s simply cannot be attributed in any substantial way to the changing demographic composition of the labor force.
On the dynamics of populations with two age groups
Authors: Kim Young J. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
By restricting the number of age groups to two and by introducing continued fractions, the dynamics of populations with deterministically changing vital rates are completely specified at all times. Explicit expressions for the sequence of the product of population projection matrices are given. From these, relative age distribution and reproductive values to any desired accuracy are obtained as functions of the vital rates. Thus, the results given in this paper are stronger than any existing weak ergodic theorems.
Seasonal migration and seasonal variation in fecundability: Effects on birth rates and birth intervals
Authors: Menken Jane 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Seasonal patterns in conception rates have been documented in several recent studies. In this paper, a mathematical model of the reproductive process is developed through which the impact of such variation in conception rates is assessed. It is found that the effect on fertility can be quite substantial, but that the birth rate when seasonal variation is occurring is approximated well by the birth rate calculated when conception rates are constant at their mean. These results indicate that further documentation of seasonality in conception rates and exploration of the causes of these patterns and their change is an important area for demographic research.
Long-Term Consequences for Children of Teenage Parents
Authors: Card Josefine J. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Data from Project TALENT were analyzed to investigate whether any long-term consequences exist for children of teenage parents. TALENT is a longitudinal national survey of 375,000 individuals who were in grades 9-12 in 1960. TALENT participants born when their mother and/or father was a teenager were compared with their classmates born when both parents were older on a variety of educational, occupational, and social dimensions. Many differences were found, owing primarily to the different social and economic background characteristics of the two groups. Even with the background factors controlled, the children of teenage parents, in comparison to their classmates: (a) showed decrements in terms of academic achievement; (b) were more likely to live in one-parent or stepparent homes; and (c)showed a slight tendency to repeat the early marriage, early parenthood, and higher fertility cycle of their parent(s).
Proportional Hazards Life Table Models: An Illustrative Analysis of Socio-Demographic Influences on Marriage Dissolution in the United States
Authors: Menken Jane , Trussell James , Stempel Debra , Babakol Ozer 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The proportional hazards life table is a recently developed approach to the analysis of survival data when mortality risks vary among individuals. It assumes that at a given age (or duration since the start of a life) the force of mortality is a constant (specific to that age) multiplied by a proportionality factor which is determined by the characteristics of the individual and does not change unless these covariates do. In this paper, the method is reviewed for the case where the covariates are fixed at the start of the lifetime and illustrated by an application to marital dissolution in the United States.
The Harmonic Mean as the Basis of a Realistic Two-Sex Marriage Model
Authors: Schoen Robert 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The “two-sex problem” is one of attempting to preserve the essential character of male and female rates of marriage (or birth), since the expression of those rates is influenced both by the age-sex composition of the population and the underlying age-sex schedule of preferences. The present paper focuses on marriage and advances a theoretically based, realistic, and conceptually simple solution. In the continuous case, where exact male and female ages are used, equation (11) provides a mathematical relationship which equates the sum of the male and female marriage propensities of the observed population with that of the model. When discrete age intervals are used, the two-sex consistency condition is given by equation (14) which equates observed and model population rates calculated using the harmonic means of the number of persons in the relevant male and female age groups. The harmonic mean consistency condition is shown to be fully sensitive to the competitive nature of the “marriage market.” When compared with alternative approaches to the two-sex problem in the context of data for Sweden, 1961–64, the simple harmonic mean method yields results fairly similar to those of the other methods. None of the two-sex methods do particularly well at predicting the actual distribution of marriages, however. The likely reason is that the underlying marriage preferences changed, a circumstance which emphasizes the importance of carefully conceptualizing how observed behavior can be decomposed into the effects produced by age-sex composition and those produced by the underlying preferences.
Methods for the Analysis of Mortality Risks Across Heterogeneous Small Populations: Examination of Space-Time Gradients in Cancer Mortality in North Carolina Counties 1970–75
Authors: Manton Kenneth G. , Stallard Eric 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
A method of analyzing mortality rates in heterogeneous populations is presented. This method, appropriate for the investigation of mortality rates in small geographic areas (e.g., counties) where the forces of mobility operate to selectively “package” persons, is applied to the determination of whether a spatial west-east gradient in cancer mortality rates existed in North Carolina over the period 1970 to 1975. A significant gradient (as well as a significant temporal trend) is determined to exist in the data, though only for particular race, age and sex-specific demographic groups. Several alternate hypotheses are presented to explain the existence of the spatial gradient in these particular demographic groups.
Effects of the Number and Spacing of Children on Marital and Parental Satisfaction
Authors: Mooney Marini Margaret 
Published: March 2007

AbstractAnalyzing data from a fifteen-year follow-up study of high school students originally surveyed in 1957–58 and resurveyed in 1973–74, this paper examines the effects of the number and spacing of children on marital and parental satisfaction. The results suggest that the number of children in the family has no direct effect on marital satisfaction but has a direct negative effect on parental satisfaction. Childspacing, as measured by the length of the average birth interval, is found to have no significant effect on either marital or parental satisfaction. Premarital pregnancy has a negative effect on both the marital and parental satisfaction of women.
Asset Accumulation and Family Size
Authors: Smith James P. , Ward Michael P. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Utilizing panel data on families, estimates are made of the effects of children on asset accumulation, asset composition, consumption, and family income. Young children are found to depress savings for young families but to increase savings for marriages of duration greater than five years. The principal channel through which children act to reduce savings is the decline in female earnings associated with the child-induced withdrawal of wives from the labor force. Family consumption actually decreases with the birth of a child, but this reduction is insufficient, for young families, to offset the fall in income. For families in which the wife does not work the estimates suggest that savings may actually increase with children.
Labor Force Status Life Tables for the United States, 1972
Authors: Schoen Robert , Woodrow Karen 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
As an ordinary life table follows a closed group from birth to the death of its last member, a labor force status life table follows a closed group through life and through the statuses “in the labor force” and “not in the labor force.” Using data from the January 1972 and January 1973 Current Population Surveys, two types of labor force status life tables were calculated for the United States, 1972. One type was a conventional working life table (for males) which started with an ordinary life table and partitioned the life table population into labor force statuses using age-specific proportions in the labor force. The other type was an increment-decrement table, prepared for both males and females, which was calculated so as to be consistent with the rates of labor force accession and separation implied by the data.
Increment-decrement labor force status life tables are generally preferable to conventional working life tables. They reflect the implications of a clearly specified set of behavioral rates, provide detailed measures of the flows between labor force statuses, do not introduce seriously biasing approximations into the calculation of summary measures of labor force experience, and can be applied to female data as easily as male data. In practice, incrementdecrement labor force status life tables can be calculated from current and retrospective data generated by a single labor force survey.
The increment-decrement labor force status life tables for the United States, 1972 reflected the extent to which the labor force participation of males exceeded that of females, but indicated that, on the average, half a woman’s lifetime between the ages of 16 and 65 was spent in the labor force. There were marked differences in the proportions, by age, of males and females in the labor force, with the male pattern rising to a single, flat peak and the female pattern being bimodal. Nonetheless, the two sexes shared similar age patterns in the proportions changing, or not changing, their labor force status.
Some New Techniques for Applying the Housing Unit Method of Local Population Estimation
Authors: Smith Stanley K. , Lewis Bart B. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The housing unit method of population estimation is often characterized as being imprecise and having an upward bias. We believe that the method itself cannot properly be characterized by a particular level of precision or direction of bias. Only specific techniques of applying the method can have such characteristics. In this paper we discuss several new techniques we have developed for estimating households and the average number of persons per household. Estimates produced by these techniques are compared to estimates produced by several other techniques. Special census results from Florida provide preliminary evidence that the new techniques produce more precise, less biased estimates than the other techniques.
A Note on the use of Regression Methods in Population Estimates
Authors: O’Hare W. P. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Evidence which has emerged in the past few years indicates that the relative accuracy of population estimates derived from the ratio-correlation method and the difference-correlation method varies from state to state. In assessing the possible reasons why neither technique is uniformly more accurate, attention is focused on the temporal instability of the statistical relationships between symptomatic indicators and population change. The author concludes that further improvement in population estimates based on regression techniques is likely to be limited until demographers derive means of measuring and adjusting for these temporal changes.
Estimating russification of ethnic identity among non-Russians in the USSR
Authors: Anderson Barbara A. , Silver Brian D. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Many scholars have asserted that extensive ethnic russification has occurred in Tsarist Russia and the Soviet Union, but little effort has been devoted to making quantitative estimates of the extent of assimilation or of the differences among ethnic groups in tendencies to assimilate. A method of estimating ethnic reidentification in the USSR is described and evaluated. The expected number of survivors to the second census date for each age cohort of a given ethnic group is compared to the reported number of cohort members at the second census date to determine the net number who have changed their ethnic self-identification between censuses. The method establishes relative differences in the propensity to reidentify ethnically among 26 Soviet ethnic groups. Many small ethnic groups in European Russia are found to have very high estimated rates of ethnic russification; non-Russian Slavs—Ukrainians and Belorussians—are found to have fairly low estimated rates of ethnic russification. The implications of the Russian gain in population through ethnic reidentification also are assessed.
Mortality levels and family fertility goals
Authors: Parlange J. Y. , Guilfoyle M. J. , Rickson R. E. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The relationship between mortality levels and family fertility goals is a fundamental problem in the theory of the demographic transition. This paper deals with the logical problems of estimating family fertility rates from the expected probability of a child surviving to a given age of a parent. The possibility of committing the ecological fallacy makes precise prediction difficult. We critically analyze an existing mathematical model of family fertility decisions. We show that, by incorporating more data (here, on birth order) in a more comprehensive model capable of using those data, then the predictability of fertility rates over time can be significantly improved.
Accuracy of death certificate ages for the extreme aged
Authors: Rosenwaike Ira , Logue Barbara 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This study attempts to verify age reporting on the death certificate for the “extreme aged” population and to evaluate the accuracy of recent death rates for this group in light of the findings. In addition, methods used and problems encountered in carrying out a record linkage study, particularly a low match rate, are identified. A sample of more than three thousand death records was selected from those filed for decedents age 85 and over in Pennsylvania and New Jersey in the 1968 to 1972 period. Death certificates of 53 percent of whites and 30 percent of nonwhites were linked to the 1900 U.S. Census. A comparison of age on the death certificate with the age reported for the same individual in the census record showed a high level of agreement for whites, except at ages 100 and over; for nonwhites, however, age agreement levels were substantially lower. Within racial groups, there was little difference by sex in agreement on age. These results, corroborating those of earlier studies, make it clear that nonwhite mortality at the oldest ages has been consistently understated in official statistics.
The Family Formation Process Among U.S. Marriage Cohorts
Authors: Tsui Amy Ong 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The family formation process is viewed as the progression of women through first marriage, first, subsequent, and last births and is examined for differential patterns of timing in 1930–1969 marriage cohorts. Based on the childbearing histories of approximately 17,000 white women once and still married, extracted from the June 1975 Current Population Survey, the study uses a dynamic model to show the varying importance across cohorts of the first birth interval as an important indicator of the total time spent in childbearing, social background effects in differentiating the timing of the first two births, and of prior birth transitions as affecting subsequent ones.
Racial Inequalities in Housing: An Examination of Recent Trends
Authors: Bianchi Suzanne M. , Farley Reynolds , Spain Daphne 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Changes in racial differences in homeownership and objective indicators of housing quality are examined using 1960 Census data and 1977 Annual Housing Survey data. Blacks, net of differences in socioeconomic status, family composition, and regional-metropolitan location, remained less likely than whites to own homes and somewhat more likely to live in older, crowded and structurally inadequate units in 1977. In general, however, net effects for race were much smaller in 1977 than in 1960. Racial differences in homeownership and crowding were smaller among recent movers than among the total sample in 1977, suggesting continued but gradual improvement in housing conditions for blacks in the latter 1970s.
A Cross-Cultural Examination of the Relationship Between Ages at Menarche, Marriage, and First Birth
Authors: Udry J. Richard , Cliquet R. L. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Recent work with samples of black and white urban American women showed a clear behavioral sequence relating age at menarche to age at first intercourse to age at first birth. This paper shows that the linking of ages at menarche, intercourse, marriage, and first birth is a pattern which occurs in very diverse cultures. We present confirmatory data from the United States, Belgium, and Pakistan, and from Malay and Chinese women in Malaysia. We interpret our findings as indicating a biological process leading to (a) social interpretations of readiness for reproduction, and (b) persisting biological differences between early and late maturing women.
Income and Fertility: The Elusive Relationship
Authors: Freedman Deborah S. , Thornton Arland 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper uses longitudinal data for 1962–1977 to examine the relationship of husband’s income to 1962 expected fertility, to final parity, and to the discrepancy between initial expectations and final parity, separately for four groups of women who in 1962 either had just given birth to a first, second, or fourth child or had just been married. Although economic reasons frequently were cited in 1977 for downward revisions in family size goals, husband’s income was not positively related to fertility in three of the four parity groups. For the merged sample, excluding women with unwanted births, husband’s income showed a small positive relationship to completed fertility.
Some Effects of Spouse Separation on Fertility
Authors: Potter R. G. , Kobrin F. E. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Simple probability models incorporating an approximation first demonstrated by Menken (1979) are used to study births averted by two classes of temporary spouse separation, single and cyclic, under conditions of natural fertility. For either class of spouse separation, births averted increases disproportionately with longer separation. For a given length of separation, births prevented are more sensitive to change in length of anovulation than to change in level ofnatural fecundability or risk of spontaneous abortion. In addition, by means of the macrosimulation model REPMOD (Bongaarts, 1977), it is shown that the fertility impact of temporary spouse separation tends to decrease as couples age.
The use of model life tables to estimate mortality for the United States in the late nineteenth century
Authors: Haines Michael R. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper seeks to extend our knowledge about mortality in the late nineteenth century United States by using census mortality data for older children and teenagers to fit model tables. The same method can also be used with partially underregistered death data. The most commonly used model tables, the Coale and Demeny West Model, apparently do not adequately depict the changing shape of mortality over the period 1850–1910. An alternative model life table system is presented, based on the Brass two parameter logit system and available reliable life tables from the period 1850–1910. The two parameter system must be reduced to a one parameter system by means of estimated relationships between the parameters so that the fitting procedure can be used. The resulting model system is, however, heavily dependent on the experience of northern, industrial states, especially Massachusetts.
Relations between demographic parameters
Authors: Demetrius Lloyd 
Published: March 2007

AbstractThe mean life-expectancy describes the average prospective life-time of an individual aged zero. This parameter can be explicitly described in terms of the survivorship distribution of the population. The Malthusian parameter r represents the asymptotic growth rate of a population. This parameter can be implicitly expressed in terms of the net-maternity distribution. The parameters and r incompletely incorporate the age-specific fertility and mortality pattern of a population; distinct populations may have the same growth rate but different net-maternity functions; distinct populations may be characterized by the same mean life expectation but may have different survivorship distributions. This article analyzes a class of parameters called the entropy of a population (Demetrius, 1974a) which distinguishes between net-maternity functions with the same growth rate and also mortality distributions with the same mean life expectation. This class of parameters measures the convexity of the fertility and mortality distributions. This paper analyzes the relations between the entropy parameter and the standard demographic parameters.
Changes in Fertility Expectations and Preferences between 1962 and 1977: Their Relation to Final Parity
Authors: Freedman Ronald , Freedman Deborah S. , Thornton Arland D. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Changing fertility expectations and preferences from 1962 to 1977 are compared with final parity in a longitudinal study. Results are strongly affected by initial parity in 1962. Final parity, 27 percent below expectations for those initially childless, illustrates the effect for couples free to change expectations downward of declining fertility preferences. Changes in expectations early in marriage had a significant long-term effect on final parity, as did early differences between wife’s expectations and husband’s preferences. Unplanned births increased final parity significantly. Religion, education, and income had no systematic relation to the discrepancy between initial expectations and final parity.
Racial Equity or Racial Equality
Authors: Daymont Thomas N. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This study examines the relationship between racial equity in labor market processes and racial equality in future labor market rewards. In particular, a regression standardization procedure is used to project the degree of racial inequality in earnings that would exist among men at various future points in time based on three different sets of assumptions about attainment processes in labor market and educational institutions. The most important results suggest that even if racial discrimination were eliminated immediately in labor market and educational institutions, it would take almost 50 years for the black-white earnings ratio to reach .95. This incompatibility between equity and equality needs to be considered more explicitly both by those who advocate a color-blind labor market and those who advocate preferential treatment for blacks.