bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
The two generation urbanite hypothesis revisited
Authors: McGirr Nancy J. , Hirschman Charles 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
It is generally accepted that socioeconomic differentials in fertility are minimal among urban couples with nonfarm origins—two generation urbanites. In this paper, we replicate Duncan’s (1965) analysis to see if the two generation urbanite hypothesis holds for more recent cohorts of American women. In four cohorts of women, drawn from three recent fertility surveys, we find no support for the two generation urbanite hypothesis. It appears that the links between farm background, socioeconomic status and fertility were different for the low fertility cohorts of women born in the early 1900s and the more recent cohorts of women who experienced the baby boom.
Models of illegitimacy: United States, 1969
Authors: Freshnock Larry , Cutright Phillips 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Three theoretical perspectives on illegitimacy, the anomie, the sub-group, and the demographic, are reviewed and compared. A composite causal model is then developed and estimated using areal data derived from the 1970 U.S. Census. While theoretical nonspecificity disallowed a definitive test, all three perspectives yielded valuable insight into the complex mechanisms underlying illegitimacy rates. Results indicate that variation in illegitimacy rates is systematically related to variation in social structure and that integration of the three positions should prove useful to further research.
Validation of an inferential approach for the measurement of illegitimacy
Authors: Chamblee Ronald F. , Clifford William B. , Mustian R. David 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
An inferential model which utilizes surname comparisons in inferring legitimacy status is developed and validated. Criterion validation is employed to assess the level of agreement between the inferential approach and the conventional reporting procedure. Data for the analysis are based on a sample of birth certificates contained in files of the National Center for Health Statistics for calendar year 1973. Results indicate that despite excessive error within some categories of the control variables, the inferential method is generally adequate to obtain reliable estimates of illegitimacy.
Social background composition and educational growth
Authors: Mare Robert D. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper examines the impact of intercohort changes in social background composition on changes in grade progression rates at selected schooling levels. It presents formal arguments that the relative and absolute effects of background composition on grade progression rates should decline over levels of schooling, and using data for white males born between 1907 and 1951, offers empirical support for these arguments. Whereas twentieth century increases in average educational attainment are primarily due to increases in grade progression rates at the elementary and secondary levels, future growth must occur through increases in transition rates beyond high school, given the near universality of high school graduation for cohorts born at midcentury. Our analysis shows that postsecondary progression rates are much less responsive to changes in family background composition than rates earlier in the schooling process. Despite intercohort changes in background composition that are increasingly favorable to educational attainment, future educational growth may be slower than past growth because compositional effects on average attainment will be through progression rates where the effects are weak.
Sex differences in patterns of career mobility
Authors: Rosenfeld Rachel A. , Sørensen Aage B. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Using the 1970 Census data, this paper examines differences by sex in patterns of intragenerational occupational mobility over a five year period (1965–1970) for two cohorts of white, U.S. men and women. The observed mobility patterns are separated into that part due to structural factors (i.e., the different distributions over occupational origins and destinations by sex) and that due to sex-related individual and group characteristics. Most of the observed differences in mobility patterns are found to be the result of occupational sex segregation.
Family formation and the life cycle
Authors: Krishnamoorthy S. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Mathematical expressions are developed for certain life cycles when only the age-specific birth and death rates are known. The probability at birth that a woman will have a specified number of children and the expected length of time spent before the first birth, between the first and the last child, and between the last child and the time of the woman’s death are shown to be calculable. Expressions for the probability of at least one child outliving the mother and for the expected number of children outliving the mother are also developed and are evaluated for three selected countries with different birth and death rates to show how these life cycles depend on birth and death rates.
A close look at the demography of Afghanistan
Authors: Trussell James , Brown Eleanor 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The first survey designed to allow estimates of the demographic characteristics of Afghanistan’s sedentary population was conducted during the period 1972–1974. Our analysis of these data, based on recently developed techniques for handling incomplete or inaccurate data, suggests that this population lives under conditions that are extreme when judged by modern standards. Marriage is early, especially for females, and universal. Marital fertility conforms to a pattern of natural fertility and total fertility is high. The birth rate is among the highest in the world today, and the expectation of life at birth is among the very lowest. Mortality is lower in urban areas than in rural areas, whereas total fertility is approximately the same in both. Our estimates of fertility and mortality imply stable populations which match closely the observed age distributions for both the rural and urban areas.
Increase in Natural Fertility During the Early Stages of Modernization: Canadian Indians Case Study
Authors: Romaniuk A. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
It has been hypothesized that populations may experience an increase in their natural fertility during the early stages of modernization as a result of the relaxation of various fertility-inhibiting practices and customs prevalent in traditional societies. This article offers evidence of such an increase in natural fertility among Canadian Indians. The main underlying cause is found to be in the massive, almost abrupt, shift from prolonged breastfeeding to bottle feeding which took place prior to the onset of large-scale birth control practices among Canadian Indians.
A Generalized Index of Dissimilarity
Authors: Sakoda James M. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The index of dissimilarity can be interpreted as the ratio of the number that must be moved from cells of excess to cells of deficit to achieve even distribution. This interpretation is used to generalize the index in two directions. First, the index is made applicable to more than two groups at a time. Second, an index and a test of significance are made available for explorations of cells of a two-way contingency table. DISSIM is the name of a computer program which provides these calculations for contingency tables.
A note on New Estimates of the Mortality of the Extreme Aged
Authors: Rosenwaike Ira 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This note reports on the utilization of the “extinct generation” method, a procedure that permits a reconstruction of “extinct” population cohorts from the death statistics for a series of years and provides alternative estimates of the mortality of the extreme aged population (persons 85 years of age and over) in the United States during the period 1951–1965. Remarkably close correspondence was found between the annual mortality rates thus derived and figures published by the National Center for Health Statistics. It was concluded that the quality of the mortality rates produced was superior to the official figures but not markedly so. An advantage of the method is the ability to produce rates in detail, such as for five-year age groups, not ordinarily published for the 85 and over population.
Starting Age and Subsequent Birth Intervals in Cohabitational Unions in Current Danish Cohorts, 1975
Authors: Finnäs Fialar , Hoem Jan M. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper presents some main results of an investigation by life table methods of birth interval data in cohabitational unions (marriages as well as consensual unions) in current Danish cohorts. Our results confirm previous findings that an early age at the start of recorded exposure to childbearing risk is indicative of a rapid pace and high level of subsequent fertility. The analysis modifies previous results and adds several new details regarding cohort trends and the effect of parity at the start of reported cohabitation. For each parity within a period of cohabitation, fertility differentials by reported starting age seem to have diminished from our older cohorts (of age up to 49 years in 1975) to our younger ones (of age less than 30 years in 1975). There are indications of a dramatic change in childbearing behaviour following the arrival of novel attitudes to non-marital cohabitation and childbearing in Denmark about 1967.
Distortions caused by nonobservation of periods of cohabitation before the latest
Authors: Hoem Jan M. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
In retrospective studies of individual life histories, some or all of the information pertaining to periods prior to the latest event interval of interest will sometimes be left out. This simplifies data collection, and it may improve the reliability of the data actually obtained by reducing misreporting. Unfortunately, it may also introduce serious distortion in estimates based on such data. This paper investigates the extent of such distortion in a retrospective study of nonmarital cohabitation, marriage, and childbearing when information on consensual unions is restricted.
Individual and couple utility of children
Authors: Thomson Elizabeth 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Models specifying the utility of another child as either a couple or an individual experience and incorporating variations in the measurement properties of responses about child utility and expectations are estimated with data from the U.S. Value of Children survey. Full information, maximum likelihood analyses indicate that child utility is an individual experience of wives and husbands rather than a shared couple experience. That is, differences in the measurement properties of wives’ and husbands’ responses do not account entirely for the less than perfect correlations between their responses. These findings demonstrate the importance of estimating errors in measurement in the analysis of wives’ and husbands’ responses about the utility of children, and they challenge the assumption that marital partners share the utility of children.
Arima models of seasonal variation in U. S. birth and death rates
Authors: Land Kenneth C. , Cantor David 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper applies methods of seasonal ARIMA time series analysis to U. S. monthly birth and death rates for January 1950–December 1978. For model selection, the conventional Box-Jenkins (1970, 1976) diagnostic checks are used in conjunction with some suggestions of Nerlove et al. (1979). This results in final models that contain significant second-order autoregressive components, as well as seasonal moving-average components, for both series. In addition, some evidence is found in the birth rate series for weekly periodicities. These findings imply the existence of a seasonal adjustment procedure that improves on the Census X-11 program currently used by vital statistics agencies.
The centenarian question and old-age mortality in the Soviet Union, 1959–1970
Authors: Bennett Neil G. , Garson Lea Keil 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Are claims of extraordinarily low mortality levels in the USSR justifiable? Applying a recently developed methodology appropriate for nonstable populations to 1959 and 1970 census data from the Soviet Union, we find that mortality is generally understated for the country as a whole and for various regions and republics. This is particularly so for the republics composing the Central Asian region and the Caucasus. Age overstatement appears to be extremely pronounced in the oldest segments of the population. Using the new methodology, we can derive the age distribution that is uniquely implied by a given life table and a set of age-specific rates of growth obtained from two censuses. When we use the official Soviet life tables in this procedure, we find that the reported number of centenarians is at least 28.9 percent overstated for males and 7.5 percent for females. If one were to posit that Soviet mortality during 1959 to 1970 was, in fact, no better than the Swedish mortality experience during roughly the same time period, then the true number of centenarians could be no more than 2 percent of that reported.
Differentials in infant and child mortality and their change over time: Guatemala, 1959–1973
Authors: Haines Michael R. , Avery Roger C. , Strong Michael A. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper employs 5 percent samples of the Guatemalan censuses of 1964 and 1973 to estimate differential childhood mortality. For 1973, conventional indirect mortality estimation procedures were applied; for 1964, a modification of the Preston-Palloni technique was used. A major result is that differential child mortality widened appreciably between about 1959 and about 1968. Factors leading to mortality decline were possibly unequally spread by geographic region, rural-urban residence, ethnic groups, and educational groups. Guatemala City seems to have benefited most from the decline. Analysis of small geographic units supports these conclusions and suggests some role for public health. A by-product of the analysis was the finding that parity was understated in the 1964 census.
Family Size Composition Differentials between Central City-Suburb and Metropolitan-Nonmetropolltan Migration Streams
Authors: White Ralph B. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
During the migration intervals 1965–1970, 1970–1975, and 1975–1979, families that migrated from Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSAs) to nonmetropolitan areas and from central cities to suburban rings were larger in mean size than families that composed the respective counterstreams. Mean family sizes declined sharply for all groups throughout the period, but absolute differentials between opposing streams increased slightly. In terms of the selective attraction of families by size, nonmetropolitan net in-migration was very similar to suburbanization within SMSAs. A considerable portion of recent nonmetropolitan net gains resulted from the exchange of larger in-migrant families for smaller outmigrant families.
Immigration and the Stable Population Model
Authors: Espenshade Thomas J. , Bouvier Leon F. , Arthur W. Brian 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper reports on work aimed at extending stable population theory to include immigration. Its central finding is that, as long as fertility is below replacement, a constant number and age distribution of immigrants (with fixed fertility and mortality schedules) lead to a stationary population. Neither the level of the net reproduction rate nor the size of the annual immigration affects this conclusion; a stationary population eventually emerges. How this stationary population is created is studied, as is the generational distribution of the constant annual stream of births and of the total population. It is also shown that immigrants and their early descendants may have fertility well above replacement (as long as later generations adopt and maintain fertility below replacement), and the outcome will still be a long-run stationary population.
Measuring Temporal Stability in Regression Models of Population Estimation
Authors: Mandell Marylou , Tayman Jeffrey 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper introduces an empirical indicator designed to measure the temporal stability of regression models used to produce subnational population estimates. Analysis of 67 counties in Florida centers on 1970 total population estimates generated from ratio-correlation and difference-correlation models. Comparisons are made between eight different regression specifications and employ a quantitative measure of relative estimate accuracy. The major findings of this study are that (a) variable measurement and type are important determinants of estimate accuracy, and (b) although temporal stability of the coefficients impacts estimation errors, the influence is not as pervasive as is suggested in the literature.
Employment trends of young mothers and the opportunity cost of babies in the United States
Authors: Cramer James C. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The central concept of microeconomic theories of fertility is opportunity cost—the product of wife’s employment lost due to childbearing and the value of her employment. This paper presents a model for analyzing opportunity cost using panel data. The average loss of employment attributable to a second- or higher-order birth, calculated at around age 2, is over 400 hours per year. This time cost represents an income loss of about $1050 in 1969 dollars. Time cost is independent of such demographic factors as birth order and age of oldest sibling. Neither does time cost depend on husband’s wage rate or wife’s education or potential wage rate. This indicates that many microeconomic models of fertility have been seriously misspecified. The paper also compares results from static and dynamic models, explores possible problems due to simultaneity bias, investigates the relationship between changes in employment (including time cost) and initial employment level, and identifies the difficulties of theorizing about opportunity cost.
Labor supply behavior of prospective and new mothers
Authors: Shapiro David , Mott Frank L. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Utilizing unique data generated from the National Longitudinal Surveys of Young Women, this paper examines the labor force participation of young mothers in the months immediately preceding and following the birth of the first child. Labor supply behavior at this point in the life cycle is described in greater detail than has hitherto been available. In addition, we analyze the independent effect of several factors of interest on the probability that a young woman will be in the labor force during various intervals surrounding the first birth.
The end of “Catholic” fertility
Authors: Westoff Charles F. , Jones Elise F. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Catholic and non-Catholic fertility during the post-World War II period are compared in this paper. Evidence accumulated across five sample surveys of fertility in the United States, which were conducted at five-year intervals from 1955 through 1975, forms the basis for the analysis; both cohort and period measures are employed. Starting from a situation where Catholic fertility was very little higher than that of non-Catholics, it is shown that the differential increased markedly during the baby boom and then declined to a point where the two trends nearly come together in the mid1970s. Interpretation of the recent convergence in the light of various theories that have been put forward to explain the differential suggests that it will be an enduring phenomenon.
Motivations for the inmigration component of population turnaround in nonmetropolitan areas
Authors: Williams James D. , Sofranko Andrew J. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Data from a 1977 survey of metropolitan and nonmetropolitan origin households migrating to 75 high net inmigration counties of the Midwest are examined to consider the motivational basis for the inmigration component of post-1970 non metropolitan migration trends. Findings suggest that the major stated motivations for leaving places of origin, especially among those from metropolitan areas, are “quality of life” considerations. About a fourth of the metropolitan origin migrants’ and half of the non metropolitan origin migrants’ reasons are job-related. Anti-urban push and pro-rural pull responses are prevalent among migrants from metropolitan areas. Subsequent analysis of reasons for leaving metropolitan residences suggests consistency with other objective variables. Among households with a working-age head, those leaving for “quality of life” reasons came disproportionately from the largest metropolitan centers and went to the smallest towns. Those moving for non-employment reasons are not more likely to have taken an initial income loss, though they are less likely to experience immediate income gains.
Female migration in Chile: Types of moves and socioeconomic characteristics
Authors: Herold Joan M. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper examines inter-provincial female migration in Chile for the 1965–1970 period, with a view to describing socioeconomic characteristics of migrant women and to determining differences and similarities in age, educational level, occupation, and type of move (first, return, or repeat) between movers to the capital and to other urban areas. Data are from a five percent sample of the 1970 Chilean census. Findings reveal that non-return migrants to other urban areas are differentiated from those to Santiago by an older age structure, higher educational levels, higher status occupations, and are more likely to be making a second (or higher-order) move. Moreover, educational measures suggest that recent female migration to urban Chile is more prevalent among the upper than the lower strata of the society.
Effects of dependency among causes of death for cause elimination life table strategies
Authors: Manton Kenneth G. , Poss Sharon S. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
A study is made of the effects of associated causes of death, and of dependency among causes of death, by observing the relative importance of one cause of death when another is eliminated under various competing risk models. Two disease pairs, cancer and infectious disease and stroke and ischemic heart disease, are selected for analysis because they represent different types of disease dependence. Crude probabilities of death for each disease are calculated for the U.S. white male population in 1969. Next, the effects of the complementary disease in a pair are hypothetically eliminated in one of three ways: (a) a standard competing risk adjustment for cause elimination when deaths are singly caused (Chiang, 1968), (b) lethal defect-pattern of failure computations for multiply caused death when no causal order is inferred (Manton et al., 1976), and (c) relative susceptibility computations for multiply caused deaths when causes are ordered (Wong, 1977). The paper closes with a discussion of the relative merits of the three types of adjustments.
Demographic Responses and Demographic Transitions: A Case Study of Sweden
Authors: Mosher William D. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
An important study by Friedlander investigated some of the effects of different demographic responses on national demographic transitions. England and Sweden were advanced as cases that approximated the suggested hypothetical models of transitions. His argument implied that the rural population of a country (in this case Sweden) experiencing mortality decline but little industrialization would reduce its fertility rates if out-migration from agricultural areas were not possible. This present study, using more complete data and better measures, concludes that this did not occur in Sweden—it did not conform to Friedlander’s hypothesized model. Because the potential implications of these findings could be profound and wide-ranging, there is a need for more studies of individual countries using better data and giving more careful attention to Davis’s theory on which the Friedlander hypothesis is based.