bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Immigrants’ ages and the structure of stationary populations with below-replacement fertility
Authors: Schmertmann Carl P. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
A sustained regime of low fertility plus immigration yields an unusual kind of stationary population. The author demonstrates that all stationary populations have a common structure, and that the familiar replacement-level fertility population is the youngest among the many stationary populations corresponding to a particular life table. This finding has important consequences for policy because although fertility increase and immigration are equally effective at halting population decline, immigration is inferior as a means of rejuvenating low-fertility populations. In fact, an immigration-based policy could make a low-fertility population older rather than younger. The paper includes examples using U.S. and West German vital rates.
Generation, ethnicity, and marriage: Historical patterns in the Northern United States
Authors: Landale Nancy S. , Tolnay Stewart E. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Immigration was a prominent feature of American life during the early decades of the twentieth century. About 40% of the white population was of foreign birth or parentage, and immigrants were increasingly from diverse national origins. Using data from the Public Use Microdata Sample of the 1910 U.S. Census, we examine generational and ethnic differences in marital timing. The analysis reveals a striking pattern of delayed marriage among native whites with foreign parents, but marked ethnic variation in the extent of marriage delay within the second generation. We hypothesize that locational factors, especially diverse economic opportunities, were important in shaping this marriage pattern. Separate multilevel analyses are conducted for females and for males living in urban and in rural places. Although significant effects for a variety of contextual factors are found, generational and ethnic differences in nuptial timing persist in multivariate models.
The effect of expansions in medicaid income eligibility on abortion
Authors: Joyce Theodore , Kaestner Robert 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
In this paper we examine the effect of expansions in Medicaid income eligibility on abortion, using individual-level data from South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia. The results suggest that for unmarried nonblack women with less than a high school degree, expansions of income eligibility lowered the probability of abortion by two to five percentage points. Most of the impact of the Medicaid expansions on abortion occurred in the first round of expansions from approximately 45% of the federal poverty level to 100%. For black unmarried women with less than a high school degree, we generally find no effect of expansions in Medicaid income eligibility on abortion.
Neighborhood Context and Residential Mobility
Authors: Lee Barrett A. , Oropesa R. S. , Kanan James W. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper extends the search for neighborhood contextual effects to residential mobility. We propose that neighborhood consists of subjective and objective domains, both of which are crosscut by substantive (social/physical) and temporal (current/change) dimensions. Measures of neighborhood characteristics consistent with our conceptualization are used to estimate the impact of context on mobility thoughts and on actual mobility in a sample of Nashville residents. Although individual statuses such as age and tenure remain important antecedents of mobility, subjective features of neighborhood context also play a role—albeit limited and indirect—in the decision to move or to stay.
Echoes of the Baby Boom and Bust: Recent and Prospective Changes in Living Alone among Elderly Widows in the United States
Authors: Macunovich Diane J. , Easterlin Richard A. , Schaeffer Christine M. , Crimmins Eileen M. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Today the great majority of noninstitutionalized elderly widows live alone, a striking increase from a quarter-century ago. A noticeable difference has occurred, however, in trends by age; the proportion of the young-old widows living alone is starting to decline. while that of the old-old continues to increase. We use a model suggested by earlier studies to explain the emergence of this difference, and assess the prospects of its continuing over the next three decades. We find that the recent differential change in the proportions of younger and older widows living alone is due primarily to a differential change in kin availability that has emerged as the baby boomers’ parents have begun to reach retirement age. Over the next decade, the same type of differential change by age in kin availability will continue; living alone is likely to become less common among young-old than among old-old widows, in a reversal of the pattern of the last quarter-century. In the first two decades of the next century, as the baby boom affects kin availability among the old-old, and as the subsequent baby bust affects that among the young-old, the age pattern of living arrangements among elderly widows will reverse once again.
Stability and Change in Temporal Distance between the Elderly and Their Children
Authors: Silverstein Merril 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Drawing on a developmental model of late-life migration, this paper investigates how older people’s health and social characteristics influence stability and change in their temporal distance from their children. Data from the Longitudinal Study of Aging are used to examine both discrete transitions and continuous change in distance over a four-year period. Decline in older parents’ physical health increased the propensity of parents and children to become temporally closer to each other. Among those parent-child pairs who had become closer, the conjunction of declining health and widowhood increased both the degree of non-coresident proximity and the likelihood of transition to coresidence. The findings portray a geographically resilient family that adjusts to the changing needs of its older members.
The Influence of Nonmarital Childbearing on the Formation of First Marriages
Authors: Bennett Neil G. , Bloom David E. , Miller Cynthia K. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
We document a negative association between nonmarital childbearing and the subsequent likelihood of first marriage in the United States, controlling for a variety of potentially confounding influences. Nonmarital childbearing does not appear to be driven by low expectations of future marriage. Rather, it tends to be an unexpected and unwanted event, whose effects on a woman’s subsequent likelihood of first marriage are negative on balance. We find that women who bear a child outside marriage and who receive welfare have a particularly low probability of marrying subsequently, although there is no evidence that AFDC recipients have lower expectations of marriage. In addition, we find no evidence that stigma associated with nonmarital childbearing plays an important role in this process or that the demands of children significantly reduce unmarried mothers’ time for marriage market activities.
The Impact of “Parent Care” on Female Labor Supply Decisions
Authors: Ettner Susan L. 
Published: March 2007

AbstractData from the 1986–1988 Survey of Income and Program Participation panels were used to analyze how informal-caregiving of disabled elderly parents affected female labor supply. Instrumental variables analyses suggested that coresidence with a disabled parent leads to a large, significant reduction in work hours, due primarily to withdrawal from the labor force. Although the impact of nonhousehold member caregiving was insignificant, evidence of an effect was stronger when commitment of caregiving time was greater. Projections of female labor force participation rates should account for potential increases in caregiving demand due to the aging of the U.S. population.
Redefining Single-Parent Families: Cohabitation and Changing Family Reality
Authors: Bumpass Larry L. , Raley R. Kelly 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper explores the implications, for the measured prevalence and duration of mother-only families, of marked changes in nonmarital fertility, unmarried cohabitation, and homeleaving and re-entry. Throughout, estimates are compared on the basis of marital definitions and definitions including cohabitation. The duration of the first single-parent spell appears to have increased under the marital definition, but declines substantially when cohabitations are taken into account. A substantial proportion of single mothers have spent some time as single parents while in their parents’ household. Hence we argue that definitions of single-parent families must be based on living arrangements rather than on the parents’ marital status.
What Do We Know About the Timing of Fertility Transitions in Europe?
Authors: Guinnane Timothy W. , Okun Barbara S. , Trussell James 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The Princeton project on the decline of fertility in Europe (the European Fertility Project) suggested that this historical fertility transition occurred virtually simultaneously in a wide variety of economic and social environments. This finding has been cited widely as evidence for an innovation/diffusion view of fertility transitions. We demonstrate that the demographic methods used to date the fertility transition in Europe—primarily Ig, and (to a lesser extent) the Coale-Trussell M&m indices—may fail to detect the initial stages of a fertility transition and therefore cannot be used as the basis for strong statements about the timing of transitions. We review these measurement problems and their implications for the current understanding of the European fertility transition.
Household Registration Type and Compliance with the “One Child” Policy in China, 1979–1988
Authors: Cooney Rosemary Santana , Li Jiali 
Published: March 2007

AbstractThis research analyzes how type of household registration, which reflects the degree of government control, affects compliance with China’s “one child” policy for women at risk during the first decade of implementation. Although socioeconomic and cultural factors have significant effects on four fertility events after first live birth, household registration type is the most important. Furthermore, household registration type interacts with urbanization in such a way that the modernization influence associated with urbanization is more evident for women under less government control. The notable success of China’s family planning program is linked to its unique system of government control.
How Economic Development and Family Planning Programs Combined to Reduce Indonesian Fertility
Authors: Gertler Paul J. , Molyneaux John W. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper examines the contributions of family planning programs, economic development, and women’s status to Indonesian fertility decline from 1982 to 1987. Methodologically we unify seemingly conflicting demographic and economic frameworks into a single “structural” proximate-cause model as well as controlling statistically for the targeted (nonrandom) placement of family planning program inputs. The results are consistent with both frameworks: 75% of the fertility decline resulted from increased contraceptive use, but was induced primarily through economic development and improved education and economic opportunities for females. Even so, the dramatic impact of the changes in demand-side factors (education and economic development) on contraceptive use was possible only because there already existed a highly responsive contraceptive supply delivery system.
Linked Lives, Dependent Demise? Survival Analysis of Husbands and Wives
Authors: Smith Ken R. , Zick Cathleen D. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Past research has found that married individuals have substantially lower risks of mortality than their single counterparts. This paper examines how household characteristics affect spouses’ risks of mortality. A paired hazard rate model is estimated and tests are made to ascertain whether the estimated coefficients associated with risk factors differ between husbands’ and wives’ equations. Cigarette smoking, risk-avoidance behavior, poverty, and children are found to affect wives’ and husbands’ mortality in similar ways. Divorce, which can be interpreted as the termination of this shared household environment, is found to affect spouses differently.
From austerity to prosperity? Migration and child poverty among mainland and island Puerto Ricans
Authors: Oropesa R.S. , Landale Nancy S. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Analyses of migrants’ economic circumstances typically use the native-born in the destination as a comparison group. We use the 1990 Census Public Use Microdata Samples for the United States and Puerto Rico to demonstrate the benefits of a comparative approach that includes data from both the origin and the destination. Specifically, the primary objective is to determine how and why the risk of child poverty is associated with migration from Puerto Rico to the United States. The results show that migration reduces the risk of child poverty, partly because better jobs are available on the mainland. Employment, human capital, family structure, and public assistance cannot completely explain observed differences. The results also show that the economic benefits of migration continue for the native-born on the mainland and that return migration to Puerto Rico is associated with impoverishment.
You can go home again: Evidence from longitudinal data
Authors: Reagan Patricia B. , Olsen Randall J. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
In this paper we analyze the economic and demographic factors that influence return migration, focusing on generation 1.5 immigrants. Using longitudinal data from the 1979 youth cohort of the National Longitudinal Surveys (NLSY79), we track residential histories of young immigrants to the United States and analyze the covariates associated with return migration to their home country. Overall, return migration appears to respond to economic incentives, as well as to cultural and linguistic ties to the United States and the home country. We find no role for welfare magnets in the decision to return, but we learn that welfare participation leads to lower probability of return migration. Finally, we see no evidence of a skill bias in return migration, where skill is measured by performance on the Armed Forces Qualifying Test.
Migradollars and mortality: The effects of migration on infant survival in Mexico
Authors: Kanaiaupuni Shawn Malia , Donato Katharine M. 
Published: March 2007

AbstractWe apply multilevel methods to data from Mexico to examine how village migration patterns affect infant survival outcomes in origins. We argue that migration is a cumulative process with varying health effects at different stages of its progression, and test several related hypotheses. Findings suggest higher rates of infant mortality in communities experiencing intense U.S. migration. However, two factors diminish the disruptive effects of migration: migradollars, or migrant remittances to villages, and the institutionalization of migration over time. Mortality risks are low when remittances are high and decrease as migration becomes increasingly salient to livelihoods of communities. Together, the findings indicate eventual benefits to all infants, irrespective of household migration experience, as a result of the development of social and economic processes related to U.S. migration.
Entry or exit? A transition-probability approach to explaining the high prevalence of single motherhood among black women
Authors: Rendall Michael S. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
I analyze the prevalence of single motherhood among black and non-Hispanic white women in terms of differences in entry and exit. Higher initial entry rates among black women, especially through unpartnered childbearing, account for slightly more than half the difference between blacks and whites in the prevalence of single motherhood. The remainder of the difference is due to black single mothers’ much lower rates of exit through union formation and to their very high rates of reentry through dissolution of these later unions. Entry and exit rates through the 1990s imply a widening racial gap.
A century of U.S. censuses and the language characteristics of immigrants
Authors: Stevens Gillian 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Since 1890, every U.S. census but one has asked about the language characteristics of the U.S. population. This almost uninterrupted data series, however, has been shaped by contemporaneous presumptions about the ties between language and ethnicity, the likelihood of proficiency in English among various subgroups, and practical constraints. I describe shifts across censuses in the phrasing of questions about language, the coding of responses, and the subpopulations for which the questions were asked and the results were published. I then describe the data generated by these items and discuss their interpretation. I conclude with a summary of the major insights and limitations of a century’s worth of data.
Kinship networks that cross racial lines: The exception or the rule?
Authors: Goldstein Joshua R. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
I estimate the frequencies of interracial kin relations, an important indicator of the isolation of racial groups in the United States. I use two techniques to estimate the size and heterogeneity of extended families. First, I develop a simple model that takes account only of kinship network sizes and intermarriage levels by race. This model allows a crude estimation of the frequency of multiracial kinship networks. Second, I produce more precise empirical estimates using a new hot-deck imputation method for synthesizing kinship networks from household-level survey data (the June 1990 Current Population Survey and the 1994 General Social Survey). One in seven whites, one in three blacks, four in five Asians, and more than 19 in 20 American Indians are closely related to someone of a different racial group. Despite an intermarriage rate of about 1%, about 20% of Americans count someone from a different racial group among their kin.
Trends in the intergenerational transmission of divorce
Authors: Wolfinger Nicholas H. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
I use data from the 1973-1996 NORC General Social Survey to examine trends in the intergenerational transmission of divorce. the propensity for the children of divorce to end their own marriages. The rate of divorce transmission declined by almost 50% in the study period. This result was essentially unchanged by statistical controls for various personal and family background differences between respondents.
Geographic morbidity differentials in the late nineteenth-century United States
Authors: Elman Cheryl , Myers George C. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
We use a national cross-sectional database, the 1880 Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample, to examine aggregate patterns and individual-level estimates of chronic-disease morbidity and long-term disability in the United States in the late nineteenth century. Despite higher levels of urban mortality in 1880, morbidity prevalence rates were highest in the rural areas of the country, especially in the western and the southern regions. Equations using microdata show that the estimated risk of chronic disease and impairment was highest for males and females who were older, of lower socioeconomic status, or from rural areas. This era was marked by geographically uneven but significant levels of endemic chronic disease, likely the outcomes of prior episodes of infectious disease and exposure to conditions generated by human action, such as the Civil War and migration.
The role of education in explaining and forecasting trends in functional limitations among older Americans*
Authors: Freedman Vicki A. , Martin Linda G. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Using the Survey of Income and Program Participation, we document the importance of education in accounting for declines in functional limitations among older Americans from 1984 to 1993. Of the eight demographic and socioeconomic variables considered, education is most important in accounting for recent trends. The relationship between educational attainment and functioning has not changed measurably, but educational attainment has increased greatly during this period. Our analysis suggests, all else being equal, that future changes in education will continue to contribute to improvements in functioning, although at a reduced rate.
Multivariate survivorship analysis using two cross-sectional samples
Authors: Hill Mark E. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
As an alternative to survival analysis with longitudinal data, I introduce a method that can be applied when one observes the same cohort in two cross-sectional samples collected at different points in time. The method allows for the estimation of log-probability survivorship models that estimate the influence of multiple time-invariant factors on survival over a time interval separating two samples. This approach can be used whenever the survival process can be adequately conceptualized as an irreversible single-decrement process (e.g., mortality, the transition to first marriage among a cohort of never-married individuals). Using data from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (Ruggles and Sobek 1997), I illustrate the multivariate method through an investigation of the effects of race, parity, and educational attainment on the survival of older women in the United States.
Fertility estimation from open birth-interval data*
Authors: Schmertmann Carl P. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Censuses and surveys frequently collect information on period fertility through questions on the timing of last births. The standard approach to estimating fertility with open-interval data uses the proportion of women giving birth in the year before the interview. I propose a more efficient, maximum likelihood method for estimating fertility from open-interval data. I illustrate a mathematical derivation of the new method, perform sensitivity analyses, and conduct empirical tests with Brazilian census data. The new estimators have small biases and lower variance than standard estimators for open-interval data. Consequently, the new method is more likely to generate accurate results from small or moderately sized samples.
The residency decision of elderly indonesians: A nested logit analysis
Authors: Cameron Lisa 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper is the first study of which the author is aware that examines elderly Indonesians’ residency decisions. The 1993 Indonesian Family Life Survey provides detailed data on the living children of a sample of elderly individuals. This allows a nested logit to be estimated, which pays due respect to the role of children’s characteristics in determining the residency outcome. The estimated earnings potentials of the parents and their children are included as explanatory variables but are not found to be important determinants of coresidency.
Understanding the twentieth-century decline in chronic conditions among older men
Authors: Costa Dora L. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
I argue that the shift from manual to white-collar jobs and reduced exposure to infectious disease were important determinants of declines in chronic disease rates among older men from the early 1900s to the 1970s and 1980s. The average decline in chronic respiratory problems, valvular heart disease, arteriosclerosis, and joint and back problems was about 66%. Occupational shifts accounted for 29% of the decline; the decreased prevalence of infectious disease accounted for 18%; the remainder are unexplained. The duration of chronic conditions has remained unchanged since the early 1900s, but when disability is measured by difficulty in walking, men with chronic conditions are less disabled now than they were in the past.