bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
On the Interpretation and Utility of Skill Information for Seasonal Climate Predictions
Authors: Kumar Arun 
Published: May 2007

Abstract
In recent years, there has been a steady increase in the emphasis on routine seasonal climate predictions and their potential for enhancing societal benefits and mitigating losses related to climate extremes. It is also suggested by the users, as well as by the producers of climate predictions, that for informed decision making, real-time seasonal climate predictions should be accompanied by a corresponding level of skill estimated from a sequence of the past history of forecasts. In this paper it is discussed whether conveying skill information to the user community can indeed deliver the promised benefits or whether issues inherent in the estimates of seasonal prediction skill may still lead to potential misinterpretation of the information content associated with seasonal predictions. Based on the analysis of atmospheric general circulation model simulations, certain well-known, but often underappreciated, issues inherent in the estimates of seasonal prediction skill from the past performance of seasonal forecasts are highlighted. These include the following: 1) the stability of estimated skill depends on the length of the time series over which seasonal forecasts are verified, leading to scenarios where error bars on the estimated skill could be of the same magnitude as the skill itself; 2) a single estimate of skill obtained from the verification over a given forecast time series, because of variation in the signal-to-noise ratio from one year to another, is generally not representative of seasonal prediction skill conditional to sea surface temperature anomalies on a case-by-case basis. These issues raise questions on the interpretation, presentation, and utilization of skill information for seasonal prediction efforts and present opportunities for increased dialogue and the exploration of ways for their optimal utilization by decision makers.
Model Wind over the Central and Southern California Coastal Ocean
Authors: Hsu Hsiao-ming , Oey Lie-Yauw , Johnson Walter , Dorman Clive , Hodur Richard 
Published: May 2007

Abstract
Recent studies have shown the importance of high-resolution wind in coastal ocean modeling. This paper tests the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) at the 9-, 27-, and 81-km grid resolutions in simulating wind off the central and southern California coasts, including the Santa Barbara Channel (SBC). The test period is March–May (1999) when the wind changes from its characteristics more typical of winter, to spring when strong gradients exist in the SBC. The model results were checked against wind station time series, Special Sensor Microwave Imager wind speeds, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis. The high-resolution (9-km grid) COAMPS wind shows expansion fans downwind of major capes where speed increases. The large-scale [O(100 km)] wind turns onshore in the Southern California Bight where both wind and wind stress curl weaken southward along the coast. The formation and evolution of the Catalina eddies are also simulated. These general features agree with observations. The turning appears to be the cumulative effect of synoptic cyclones shed downwind of Point Conception during periods of intense northerly wind. The turning and eddies are much weaker in the ECMWF reanalysis or the COAMPS field at the 81-km grid. Near the coast, observed small-scale (tens of kilometers) structures are reasonably reproduced by COAMPS at the 9-km grid. Results from the 9-km grid generally compare better with observations than the 27-km grid, suggesting that a more accurate model wind may be obtained at even higher resolution. However, in the SBC, simulated winds at both the 9- and 27-km grids show along-channel coherency during May, contrary to observations. The observed winds in the channel appear to be of small localized scales (≈&lt;10 km) and would require an improved model grid and perhaps also boundary layer physics to simulate.
The Predictive Skill and the Most Predictable Pattern in the Tropical Atlantic: The Effect of ENSO
Authors: Hu Zeng-Zhen , Huang Bohua 
Published: May 2007

Abstract
This work investigates the predictive skill and most predictable pattern in the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The skill is measured by the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly correlation between the predictions and the corresponding analyses, and the most predictable patterns are isolated by an empirical orthogonal function analysis with a maximized signal-to-noise ratio. On average, for predictions with initial conditions (ICs) of all months, the predictability of SST is higher in the west than in the east. The highest skill is near the tropical Brazilian coast and in the Caribbean Sea, and the lowest skill occurs in the eastern coast. Seasonally, the skill is higher for predictions with ICs in summer or autumn and lower for those with ICs in spring. The CFS poorly predicts the meridional gradient in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The superiority of the CFS predictions to the persistence forecasts depends on IC month, region, and lead time. The CFS prediction is generally better than the corresponding persistence forecast when the lead time is longer than 3 months. The most predictable pattern of SST in March has the same sign in almost the whole tropical Atlantic. The corresponding pattern in March is dominated by the same sign for geopotential height at 200 hPa in most of the domain and by significant opposite variation for precipitation between the northwestern tropical North Atlantic and the regions from tropical South America to the southwestern tropical North Atlantic. These predictable signals mainly result from the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The significant values in the most predictable pattern of precipitation in the regions from tropical South America to the southwestern tropical North Atlantic in March are associated with excessive divergence (convergence) at low (high) levels over these regions in the CFS. For the CFS, the predictive skill in the tropical Atlantic Ocean is largely determined by its ability to predict ENSO. This is due to the strong connection between ENSO and the most predictable patterns in the tropical Atlantic Ocean in the model. The higher predictive skill of tropical North Atlantic SST is consistent with the ability of the CFS to predict ENSO on interseasonal time scales, particularly for the ICs in warm months from March to October. In the southeastern ocean, the systematic warm bias is a crucial factor leading to the low skill in this region.
Preparation of α-MnO2 Nanorods and Co3O4 Submicrooctahedrons by Molten Salt Route
Authors: Ran Songlin , Gao Lian 
Published: May 2007

Abstract
α-MnO2 nanorods and Co3O4 submicroctahedrons have been obtained by simple molten salt preparation route using cheap reagents. Particle size and morphology of the powders were studied by transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and field emission scanning electron microscopy (FESEM).
Fundamentals and Applications of Soluble Carbon Nanotubes
Authors: Nakashima Naotoshi , Fujigaya Tsuyohiko 
Published: May 2007

Abstract
In this review article, we describe i) a strategy for individual solubilization of single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWNTs) in water or organic solvents and ii) some fundamental properties and applications of the solubilized SWNTs.
Seeding Method for Three-dimensional Dendritic Growth of Gold Nanoparticles Stabilized by Hexatrimethylammonium Bromide
Authors: Lee Jong-Hee , Kamada Kai , Enomoto Naoya , Hojo Junichi 
Published: May 2007

Abstract
Three-dimensional gold dendrites with fractal nanostructure were prepared with HAuCl4 and l-ascorbic acid via seeding growth method in the presence of hexatrimethylammomium bromide (HTAB) as a protecting agent and architecture soft template. Spherical gold, previously generated, plays as a seed for particle growth. The surfactant HTAB helps to induce various branched nanostructures. The growth of first branches on the seeds leads to the formation of second branches by seed amount.
A Mild and Efficient Chemoselective Protection of Primary Alcohols as Pivaloyl Esters Using La(NO3)3·6H2O as a Catalyst under Solvent-free Conditions
Authors: Prabhakar P , Suryakiran N , Venkateswarlu Y 
Published: May 2007

Abstract
Primary alcohols are selectively and efficiently protected as their pivaloyl esters with pivaloyl chloride in the presence of catalytic amounts of La(NO3)3·6H2O at room temperature under solvent-free conditions in excellent yields.
Some implications of chaos theory for the genetic analysis of human development and variation
Authors: Eaves Lindon J , Kirk Katherine M , Martin Nicholas G , Russell Robert J 
Published: May 2007

AbstractNon-linear epigenetic processes are a potential underlying source of phenotypic differences in development. Simulation studies of twin pairs using simple non-linear development models characterised by chaotic or near-chaotic behavior are presented. The effect of chaotic processes on correlations is to lower them from their initial values, but high initial correlations are affected much less by chaotic and near-chaotic processes than intermediate correlations. Therefore, we would predict that traits affected by chaotic processes would have high MZ and low DZ twin correlations and this is reminiscent of certain traits such as EEG spectra. However the much more frequent observation of MZ correlations close to twice their DZ counterparts would suggest that the role of chaos in development is quite limited.
Risk of premature birth in multifetal pregnancy
Authors: Minakami H , Kosuge S , Fujiwara H , Mori Y , Sato I 
Published: May 2007

AbstractThe risk of preterm delivery ( < 37 weeks of gestation) is approximately nine times higher in women with multifetal pregnancies than in women with singleton pregnancies. However, it is possible that the risk will vary according to gestational week. To assess the risk of premature birth within 1 week by gestational age among multifetal pregnancies and compare the estimated risk with that of singleton pregnancies, we analyzed 6 036 475 infants born in singleton pregnancies and 90 887 infants born in multifetal pregnancies in Japan ( ≥ 22 weeks) over the 5-year period 1989–1993. An estimate of the risk of birth within 1 week at gestational week n was obtained by dividing the number of infants delivered at gestational week n by the number of infants delivered at or beyond gestational week n. The risk at 22 weeks was 0.9 per 1000 fetuses for singleton pregnancies and 5.0 per 1000 for multifetal pregnancies. The risk remained relatively stable until 27 weeks of gestation, then sharply increased toward 36 weeks of gestation in both singleton and multifetal pregnancies. The odds ratio for birth within 1 week for fetuses of multifetal pregnancies compared with fetuses of singleton pregnancies was 5.9 (95% CI, 5.4–6.5) at 22 weeks of gestation, increasing gradually with increasing gestational age until 33 weeks of gestation (13.7; 95% CI, 13.1–14.2) but declining thereafter to 8.8 (95% CI, 8.6–8.9) at 36 weeks of gestation. Results of data analysis for each year of the 5-year period did not differ substantially. Twin Research (2000) 3, 2–6.
The comparative constitution of twinship: strategies and paradoxes
Authors: Stewart EA 
Published: May 2007

AbstractIn both traditional and modern societies, twinship, as an unusual mode of reproduction, involves difficulties for social systems in maintaining consistent classification systems. It is proposed that the most prevalent response to twinship involves various ‘strategies of normalisation’ to defuse and contain the potential disruption. This proposition is illustrated and analysed in relation to ethnographic maternal drawn mainly (but not exclusively) from African communities in the twentieth century. Following a discussion of twin infanticide as the most extreme of the normalising strategies, the article concludes by identifying a number of paradoxes in the social construction of twinship. Twin Research (2000) 3, 142–147.
Birth Weight Corrected for Gestational Age is Related to the Incidence of Down's Syndrome Pregnancies
Authors: van Montfrans Joris M. , Bakker Petra S.M. , Rekers-Mombarg Lyset T.M. , van Weissenbruch Mirjam M. , Lambalk Cornelis B. 
Published: May 2007

AbstractThree recent studies reported that early depletion of the primordial follicle pool is likely to be an independent risk factor for Down's syndrome pregnancies. The size of the primordial follicle pool at birth is determined by oogenesis and by the rate of follicle atresia during the intra uterine period. Since intra uterine growth retardation was reported to be associated with a significantly reduced primordial follicle pool at birth, we investigated the possibility of a relation between low birth weight for gestational age and the risk of a Down's syndrome pregnancy. In a case control study, 95 women with a history of a Down's syndrome pregnancy and 85 controls provided information on their own birth weight and length of gestation. Birth weight standard deviation scores, indicating the difference in birth weight from a reference group, were significantly lower in Down's syndrome mothers than in controls. These findings illustrate that the risk of a Down's syndrome pregnancy is related to a low birth weight corrected for gestational age, possibly by a causal relation between intra uterine growth retardation and the size of the primordial follicle pool
The Rate of Preterm Twin Births (22–27 Weeks) As a Criterion for Measuring the Quality of Prenatal Care
Authors: Papiernik Emile 
Published: May 2007

AbstractWhile the true figures are not well established, outcomes of twin pregnancies are directly dependent on a small number of preterm births between 22 and 27 weeks. Observation of perinatal outcomes in twin pregnancies yields two contradictory results. Firstly, it shows an improvement in perinatal mortality figures. Secondly, it reveals an increase in the rates of preterm deliveries. These findings result from the observation of 783 twin pregnancies followed and delivered in a level 3 perinatal centre in Paris between 1993 and 1998. Women followed since the beginning of pregnancy through the outpatient clinic of the institution are included in this number, as are women who were referred or transferred to the centre at a later date due to complications. This analysis reflects the influence of two contrasting policies. The first, and less recent policy is devoted to the prevention of preterm births, and is reflected by the low number of extremely preterm deliveries at 22–32 weeks. The second is the effect of our new approach to the prevention of foetal deaths in relation to foetal growth retardation in twins which has resulted in increased medical intervention such as the induction of labour or scheduled Caesarean birth. This has resulted in an increase in twin preterm births from 33 to 36 weeks, with the expected result of fewer foetal deaths.
Revisiting the Children of Twins: Can They Be Used to Resolve the Environmental Effects of Dyadic Parental Treatment on Child Behavior?
Authors: Eaves Lindon J. , Silberg Judy L. , Maes Hermine H. 
Published: May 2007

AbstractThe children of twins (COT) design has been proposed as an alternative to the adoption study to resolve the direct effects of parental treatment from secondary parent–child association due to genetic factors. The basic analytical approach compares the parent–offspring correlation with the correlation between children and the monozygotic (MZ) twins of their parents. We show that a significant difference between these correlations does not imply direct environmental causality when the measured parental treatment in question is dyadic, that is, influenced by both parents even when mating is random. Nongenetic causal effects yield very similar patterns of correlation to secondary genetic effects on dyadic treatment variables. The fact that many candidate environments, such as parental divorce, are dyadic gives reason to question the interpretation of their correlations with behavior in the children of twins.
Environmental Factors Determine Where the Dutch Live: Results From the Netherlands Twin Register
Authors: Willemsen Gonneke , Posthuma Danielle , Boomsma Dorret I. 
Published: May 2007

AbstractThe heritability of the degree of residential area urbanization in twins and their siblings in the Dutch population was examined. The postal code was known for 6879 twins and 2724 siblings registered with the Netherlands Twin Register and born between 1940 and 1983. Using data from Statistics Netherlands (Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek, 2001), these postal codes could be related to residential area characteristics, including urbanization level. The degree of urbanization was assessed on a 5-point scale: very heavy, heavy, moderate, low and not urbanized. Genetic model-fitting was carried out in three age cohorts: young adults (born 1975 to 1983), adults (born 1965 to 1974) and older adults (born 1940 to1964). Twin and sibling resemblance in urbanization level was expressed in polychoric correlations. These correlations decreased from the youngest cohort (.66 to .86) to the oldest cohort (.20 to .58). In all 3 age cohorts, genetic factors did not contribute to familial resemblance. The influence of common environment decreased in importance from the young cohort (70% to 83%) to the old cohort (46% to 47%) and was lower in women than in men in all but the oldest age cohort. This study did not replicate Australian findings of a genetic contribution in the older cohorts; common environmental factors and, increasingly with age, unique environmental factors determine where the Dutch live. Future studies in European and other populations will reveal whether these results are specific to the Dutch population.
Twins Born Following Fertility Treatment: Implications for Quantitative Genetic Studies
Authors: Goody Adam , Rice Frances , Boivin Jacky , Harold Gordon T. , Hay Dale F. , Thapar Anita 
Published: May 2007

AbstractThe rate of multiple births is substantially elevated in women who have had assisted reproduction treatment (ART; ˜26%) compared to the general population (˜1%), and these offspring are usually included in twin studies. Several studies have attempted to identify possible consequences of undergoing ART on the subsequent offspring. However, most studies have only included singleton births. We first examined whether twins born by ART differed from other twins on measures of childhood psychopathology, putative risk factors and correlates, and secondly tested for differences in the degree of twin similarity for available outcome measures. From a population-based twin sample, 101 families with dizygotic (DZ) twins conceived via ART were identified and compared with 1073 naturally conceived (NC) control DZ twin pairs. Analyses performed were (1) univariate and multivariate comparisons of between-group mean differences; and (2) comparison of twin 1–twin 2 correlations between the groups. The groups differed significantly on demographic factors (parental age, family size and social class) and pregnancy variables (smoking during pregnancy and birthweight) but did not differ on family conflict scores or in the frequency of obstetric complications. Family cohesion was higher in the ART group but this was accounted for by demographic factors. For child psychopathology there was a difference between the groups only for teacher-rated ADHD (Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder). Differences were also found between groups for twin correlations. The differences found between ART and NC twins on group means and twin correlations suggest that researchers should be aware that including ART twins may influence results from twin studies.
Estimation of the Rate of SNP Genotyping Errors From DNA Extracted From Different Tissues
Authors: Montgomery Grant W. , Campbell Megan J. , Dickson Peter , Herbert Shane , Siemering Kirby , Ewen-White Kelly R. , Visscher Peter M. , Martin Nicholas G. 
Published: May 2007

AbstractHigh density single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotyping panels provide an alternative to microsatellite markers for genome scans. However, genotype errors have a major impact on power to detect linkage or association and are difficult to detect for SNPs. We estimated error rates with the Affymetrix GeneChip® SNP platform in samples from a family with a mixed set of monozygotic (MZ) and dizygotic (DZ) triplets using lymphocyte, buccal DNA and samples from whole genome amplification using the multiple displacement amplification (MDA) technique. The average call rate from 58,960 SNPs for five genomic samples was 99.48%. Comparison of results for the MZ twins showed only three discordant genotypes (concordance rate 99.995%). The mean concordance rate for comparisons of samples from lymphocyte and buccal DNA was 99.97%. Mendelian inconsistencies were identified in 46 SNPs with errors in one or more family members, a rate of 0.022%. Observed genotype concordance rates between parents, between parents and children, and among siblings were consistent with previously reported allele frequencies and Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium. Using the MDA technique, results for two samples had equivalent high accuracy to results with genomic samples. However, the SNP call rate for the remaining seven samples varied from 72.5% to 99.5%, with an average of 86.11%. Quality of the DNA sample following the MDA reaction appears to be the critical factor in SNP call rate for MDA samples. Our results demonstrate highly accurate and reproducible genotyping for the Affymetrix GeneChip® Human Mapping Set in lymphocyte and buccal DNA samples.
Twin Studies on Obsessive–Compulsive Disorder: A Review
Authors: van Grootheest Daniël S. , Cath Daniëlle C. , Beekman Aartjan T. , Boomsma Dorret I. 
Published: May 2007

AbstractGenetic factors have historically been thought of as important in the development of obsessive–compulsive disorder (OCD). For the estimation of the relative importance of genetic and environmental factors, twin studies are an obvious approach. Twin studies of OCD have a long history, starting in 1929. In this review, over 70 years of twin research of OCD is presented, using four different approaches that represent the steps in the twin research of OCD from past to present. These steps include (1) case-studies of twins with OCD from the old literature; (2) twin studies of OCD using Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) criteria; (3) twin studies of OCD using a dimensional approach, comparing resemblances in monozygotic and dizygotic twins; and (4) twin studies of OCD using a dimensional approach, analyzing the data with Structural Equation Modeling. It is concluded that only the studies using the last method have convincingly shown that, in children, obsessive–compulsive (OC) symptoms are heritable, with genetic influences in the range of 45% to 65%. In adults, studies are suggestive for a genetic influence on OC symptoms, ranging from 27% to 47%, but a large twin study using a bio- metrical approach with continuous data is still needed to provide conclusive evidence. Strategies for future twin studies of OCD are discussed.