bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Model life tables: An empirical test of their applicability to less developed countries
Authors: Adlakha Arjun 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Model life tables are commonly used for estimating various parameters of mortality of populations in developing countries with limited data. The application of the models is based on the assumption that the agemortality pattern of the population under consideration resembles one of the life tables in the models. The analysis in this paper tests the validity of this assumption for developing countries with data usable for the purpose. The major conclusion is that infant mortality in the populations analyzed is higher than predicted by the models corresponding to the levels of adult mortality of these populations. The observed discrepancy is ascribed to the selectivity involved in the construction of model life tables, which are primarily derived from the historical experience of Western countries. Populations in the currently developing countries apparently differ in the process of mortality change from those used in the models. Though the analysis is limited to a few countries and may not necessarily be true for all the less developed countries, it suggests the need for caution in the use of conventional model life tables.
Methods for measuring school performance through cohort analysis
Authors: Légaré Jacques 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
In order to evaluate the main educational characteristics of a grade cohort—which are the proportion of those who get a degree, the average time spent in school and finally the mean educational attainment of the cohort—we present a school system in which repeat enrolments are well identified. In this discrete model, we present, for each grade, three transition coefficients: the proportion of those passing to the next grade, the proportion of those repeating the grade and the proportion of those leaving the school system. Afterwards, we set up a system of equations leading to the distribution of the entrants in the cohort according to the levels of their educational attainment, a system of equations for which a simple solution will depend on two assumptions.
Forecasting first grade public school enrollment by neighborhood
Authors: Fabricant Ruth , Weinman Janice 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The purpose of this study is to develop an alternative method to the traditional cohort survival technique for long-run forecasting of public school enrollment by small area. In the model presented, the difference between first grade enrollment and resident births lagged six years is viewed as a function of new housing, busing, and the percent of lagged births that are white. Least squares regression analysis was used to test the model on data in four neighborhoods in New York City for the period 1958–1969. While the model fits the historical data rather well, its usefulness for long-run forecasting is diminished in areas experiencing substantial structural change.
The precision of population projections studied by multiple prediction methods
Authors: Schweder Tore 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
A population projection is a prediction of a random vector variable XT. which represents the size and age/sex distribution of the population in year T. The population is assumed to be closed and to develop according to fixed and known schedules of birth and death probabilities as a multitype branching process. The precision of the usual projection eT(= EXT) is studied by a family of prediction intervals of linear functions of the vector of deviations XT — eT, which has a preassigned probability level. This family is obtained by a multi-normal approximation and an argument similar to the one leading to Scheffé's method of multiple comparison. From the family of prediction intervals, an upper limit of the total absolute deviation Σ |XiT − eiT| is obtained, and the ratio of this limit to the projected total population is proposed as a measure of the relative precision of the projection. For a numerical study, Norwegian population data is used.
Redistribution and assimilation of ethnic populations: The Los Angeles case
Authors: Van Arsdol Maurice D. , Schuerman Leo A. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Redistribution relative to metropolitan growth of Negro, other non-white and Spanish name populations is examined in Los Angeles County from 1940 to 1960 for a comparable grid of subareas. The subareas are defined relative to their maturity at different time points in order to partially control for population redistribution effects of neighborhood life histories, the spread of older subareas, and the persistence of neighborhood patterns. Shifts in ethnic concentration are shown for both older and newer subareas. Concurrent changes in neighborhood social structures and ethnic populations are described. Findings are categorized under three themes: First, ethnic population increments and redistribution were generally restricted to expanding older subareas. Ethnic populations did not spatially expand at a rate equal to the spread of the metropolis or of older subareas. Second, segregation is greater in both older and newer neighborhoods for Negroes than for other ethnic populations. Negroes experienced the largest proportional increments in both older and newer subareas, as well as the greatest stability in subarea occupancy. Finally, the spatial separation of ethnic populations impedes assimilation in that unique patterns of neighborhood structure come to characterize different ethnic populations, and changes in ethnic composition are reflected in changes in neighborhood social structures.
Use of a fertility simulation model to refine measurement techniques
Authors: Barrett J. C. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
A stochastic model involving the recurrent events (births, foetal deaths, etc.) associated with human reproduction is defined. Its simulation by means of a Monte Carlo program is described. The model is used to investigate the role of chance in producing biases in certain demographic measurements, particularly as regards the estimation of sterility, foetal death and stillbirth ratios, and birth intervals.
A model to estimate births averted due to IUCDs and sterilizations
Authors: Venkatacharya K. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The computation of births averted due to a specific family planning programme requires special treatment instead of application of the usual population projection technique using conventional fertility rates. The reason for this is that adopters of a family planning method are a selective group from the general population with respect to a number of demographic and biological characteristics, including the initial susceptibility status at the time of adoption. In the present paper a matrix of annual birth probabilities specific to age at adoption of a method and duration since adoption is obtained. One matrix is presented for adopters of IUCD, another for salpingectomy, and a third for vasectomy. These matrices are used to obtain estimates of births averted for India due to IUCDs and sterilizations performed during 1956–69. The results are compared with those that could have been obtained by using the usual age-specific marital fertility rates under identical conditions, except for initial susceptibility. The entire work is programmed on a high speed electronic computer.
A model for estimating fecundability of the currently married woman from the data on her susceptibility status—A cohort approach
Authors: Pathak K. B. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
A probability model to estimate fecundability of a married woman has been proposed under some mild assumptions. It utilises the knowledge on the susceptibility status of the married women (including menstruation, menopause, pregnancy and amenorrhea) and therefore sets another approach for estimating fecundability. In addition, it is capable of predicting the parity, proportion of foetal losses, fecundability and incidence of secondary sterility. The problem of finding out the consistent estimates of the parameters in the distribution is discussed in section 4. For illustra-tion, the model is applied to a set of simulated data after simplifying many assumptions of the model
A new method for estimating the level of natural fertility in populations practicing birth control
Authors: Espenshade Thomas J. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The natural fertility schedule of a population is the schedule of age-specific marital fertility we would observe if no birth control were being practiced. In natural fertility (no birth control) populations we can observe the natural fertility schedule directly, but in populations practicing birth control the natural fertility schedule is disguised by the marital fertility rates in those age intervals in which control is exercised, the marital fertility rates being below the natural rates. This paper elaborates a method for estimating the natural fertility schedules of populations practicing birth control. Two alternative models are presented, one nonlinear and one linear. The use of these models is then illustrated with reference to the Old Order Amish population of Lancaster County, Pennsylvania. It is shown that for Amish women born between 1860 and 1900 both the nonlinear and linear models yield an estimate of .843 as the ratio between Amish and Hutterite natural fertility schedules.
Can we Believe Recent Data on Birth Expectations in the United States?
Authors: Blake Judith 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
A share of the recent decline in birth expectations of young American wives may be due to the historically unique stimulus of intense public attention to population growth and family size. Data on whites from numerous national surveys provide at least four types of evidence favoring this thesis: a sudden massing of responses in the two-child category (the ZPG formula); a tolerance for the large family; an aversion to childlessness and the one-child family; and an inconsistency between respondents’ evaluations of the family cycle and childspacing, on the one hand, and their personal acceptance of the two-child norm, on the other. The lack of congruence in American reproductive attitudes at present suggests that some conservatism might be wise in accepting current birth expectations as valid indicators of the long-run intentions of youthful cohorts.
Which Couples at Given Parities Expect to have Additional Births? An Exercise in Discriminant Analysis
Authors: Namboodiri N. Krishnan 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Do couples at given parities who expect to have additional births differ on selected characteristics from their counterparts who do not expect to have any more children? This question is examined herein focusing attention on the wife’s age, age at marriage, religion, and education and the husband’s education and income. The method used is the discriminant-function analysis. The data are from the 1965 U. S. National Fertility Study. The combined discriminatory power of the social and economic background characteristics examined herein has been found to be greater at higher parities than at lower ones, while the opposite is true of demographic characteristics.
The Initiation of Contraception
Authors: Rindfuss Ronald , Westoff Charles F. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Using data from the 1970 National Fertility Study, the trend in the initiation of contraception prior to the first pregnancy is examined. This trend is of interest because of its relationship to the tempo of familybuilding. Using data from a recent marriage cohort, it is shown that use before the first pregnancy is related to age at marriage, age at termination of first pregnancy and the probability of having a premarital conception. For women first married during the decade of the 1960’s, there was a substantial increase in the proportion using contraception before the first pregnancy. This trend is found among both white Catholics and white non-Catholics, but not among blacks. An examination of the specific method used by women using contraception before the first pregnancy reveals a shift from reliance on the traditional methods of diaphragm, condom and douche by the earlier birth cohorts to the use of the pill by the more recent cohorts. An appendix examines the reliability of various measures of the interval of first use of contraception.
Sex Ratio at Birth: Values, Variance, and Some Determinants
Authors: Markle Gerald E. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper examines the values, variance and some possible determinants of sex ratios for the first child and for all children in expected and desired families. For adults in Tallahassee, Florida, it was found that a large majority of respondents within sixty demographic categories chose males for their first child. Of those who actually had girls for their first child, a plurality would, nevertheless, prefer a first boy in their desired family. It was hypothesized and demonstrated that sex-role ideologies were a strong predictor of variance in first-child sex preferences. Sex ratios for all children in expected and desired families were 116 and 113, respectively. If people could choose the sex of their future children, these data suggest that several population parameters might be significantly altered; a preliminary model is outlined which might project some of these changes.
Using Gross Migration Data Compiled from the Social Security Sample File
Authors: Renshaw Vernon 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
A study by Donald Pursell (1972), which examines migration data compiled from the one-percent sample file of the Social Security Administration, is discussed in this paper. An important feature of the data which is neglected by Pursell is pointed out, and the Pursell results are compared with findings obtained using somewhat different treatments of the social security data. The Pursell conclusion that out-migration is negatively related to employment growth is supported by the alternative tests.
Mass immigration and population dynamics in israel
Authors: Friedlander Dov 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Israel, in her 25 years of existence, received an unprecedented volume of immigration, which was the major source of her high population growth. This immigration was heavily concentrated in the first five years, 1948–1952; mass immigration of 711,000 supplemented an initial population of 630,000. Subsequently, since 1952, a very peculiar age-sex structure has developed: namely, instead of a pyramid, a wide rectangle for the younger age groups “topped” with a narrow pyramid for the older age groups. The peculiar age-sex dynamics is analyzed in relation to the volume of immigration with its uneven time distribution, the age selectivity of migrants and fertility-mortality patterns of migrants. It is concluded that the uneven time distribution of immigration and the higher fertility of migrants are jointly responsible for the development of Israel’s peculiar age dynamics, and that the absence of either of these two factors alone would eliminate it. The peculiar dynamics has societal implications in the short and the long run, some of which are discussed.
Social security and fertility: An international perspective
Authors: Hohm Charles F. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
A number of population scholars have asserted that social security programs such as old-age programs lead to decreased fertility levels because parents need not rely on children for “security” in old age. There is, however, a paucity of empirical data on the above. This paper analyzes 67 countries and shows that social security programs have a measureable negative effect on subsequent levels of fertility. In fact, the social security programs appear to have as much of an independent impact on fertility as do the traditional correlates of fertility (infant mortality, education and per capita income).
Childhood Mortality, Family Size and Birth Order in Pre-Industrial Europe
Authors: Cohen Joel E. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Based on parish registers, demographic histories of Crulai (France), Tourouvre-au-Perche (France), and Geneva (Switzerland) established the childhood mortality experienced by complete sibships during periods of at least half a century before the French revolution. These observations may be presented as frequencies in incomplete five-dimensional contingency tables. The five dimensions are: survival (living or dead), completed sibship size, birth order, type of family (according to completeness of information about family), and epoch (period in which the family lived).
This paper reanalyzes these published data, using hierarchical log-linear models to discern which interactions among the five variables can justifiably be inferred from the data. The neonatal and infant mortality rates of firstborn are probably higher than those of later sibs (in Crulai and Tourouvre). But mortality by age 20 (in Geneva) is associated strongly with the epoch, type of family, and family size, and not significantly with birth order. The increase in mortality with completed family size is insufficient to select, in an evolutionary sense, for limited family size.
Measuring Change in Sex Composition
Authors: Norland Joseph A. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The present paper deals with changes over time in the sex composition of a given population. Such changes are generated by the components of population change: natality, mortality, immigration and emigration. The objective of this paper is to propose a model which provides a quantitative statement concerning the effect of each such component on the change in the sex composition of the population. It is shown that the model is applicable to the measurement of sex composition by either the masculinity proportion or the sex ratio. To demonstrate the application of the proposed model, an example based on Canadian data is given.
The Welfare Effect of an Additional Child Cannot be Stated Simply and Unequivocally
Authors: Simon Julian L. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
There is no single calculable welfare effect of an additional person. Rather, there are many different judgments, which may be negative or positive. The welfare effect depends upon the particular economic situation the child will be born into, which point in his life-cycle one refers to, whether he is expected to have a positive effect upon his particular sort of economy and society during and after his lifetime, and most of all, on the kind of welfare criterion used. Furthermore, no matter which welfare criterion is used, the welfare effect of an added individual summarized over time is especially sensitive to the particular assumptions made.
Competition Between Spontaneous and Induced Abortion
Authors: Potter R. G. , Ford K. , Moots B. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Because of their similar timing in pregnancy, spontaneous and induced abortions can be viewed as competing outcomes. Some intended abortion operations are anticipated by earlier miscarriages while some potential miscarriages are forestalled by earlier deliberate interruptions of pregnancy. Previous treatments of this competition are reviewed, and a new analysis is made on the basis of New York data. A simple rule for approximating the reduction in apparent incidence of spontaneous abortion in the presence of induced abortion is presented. The effects of nonreporting and misreporting of pregnancy outcomes upon this rule are examined by means of the Perrin-Sheps renewal process. Two expectations are tested on Taiwanese data.
The effects of formal church affiliation and religiosity on the fertility patterns of Mexican-American catholics
Authors: Alvírez David 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The effects of religion on the fertility patterns of Mexican Americans are examined with two different path models, the Institutional Model using formal affiliation with the Roman Catholic Church as a measure of religion, and the Religiosity Model using a measure of religiosity. Each model, tested separately for husbands and wives, examines the effects of religion on types of contraceptive methods used and on wanted family size. Although the majority of Mexican Americans are Catholics and tend to have large families, religion does not seem to have the same effect on their fertility patterns as on that of other Catholics in the United States. Among the men, neither formal affiliation nor religiosity affect the fertility patterns in any way, while among the women the effect is slight. Considering the Catholic Church’s position on contraceptive usage, it is especially noteworthy that religion does not affect the use or non-use of the more effective means of contraception, a factor contributing to the generally weak association between the measures of religion and wanted family size. The last section attempts a partial explanation of why the results turned out as they did.
Fertility and economic dependency of Soviet women
Authors: Mazur D. Peter 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
The study addresses itself to the question: If it can be shown that economic dependency of women is not associated with fertility, then what are the variables that favor their abstention from work outside home? Results based on an extensive statistical analysis of Soviet data bring into focus new evidence. It was found thateconomic dependency of women is associated with themarriage differential between sexes. This relationship is especially evident in the regions where birth rates are of a low order. In the geographic areas where fertility is high, the percentage of economically inactive women increases with an increase in the urban population portion in an administrative area. Five principal components of urbanization have been identified: (1) educational level, (2) increasing rates of marriage, (3) divorce, (4) equal educational status of women as compared with men, and (5) the rising proportion of economically dependent women in the 16–54 age span. Most of the data are based on the 1959 Census and vital statistics by administrative areas for the U. S. S. R. For analytic purposes these were sorted into 30 areas of low birth rates, 62 areas with moderate rates, and 48 administrative areas corresponding to the high-fertility region in the Caucasus, Central Asia, and in several autonomous non-Slav republics.
Birth control, income redistribution, and the rate of saving: The case of Mexico
Authors: Isbister John 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
If different groups of people in a low-income society save at different average rates, a program of birth control may affect the aggregate rate of saving by changing the relative shares of income accruing to these groups. A model is outlined in which this process occurs. The only group that saves is profit recipients; peasants and secondary sector employees consume all their income. A decline in fertility leads to a lower demand for food and a lower price of food. This results in a lower money supply price of labor in the secondary sector, and hence greater profits and greater saving. On the other hand, a fertility decline may eventually produce a higher real standard of living among rural workers, hence a higher supply price of secondary sector labor, lower profits and lower saving. These effects are investigated in a simulation of Mexican economic growth with (a) constant high fertility and (b) a declining birth rate such as might occur if a successful national birth control program were instituted. The birth control program results in a higher rate of aggregate saving over the first several decades, and eventually a lower rate of saving once a higher standard of living has been attained.
An exponential model of female sterility
Authors: Pittenger Donald B. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
It is suggested that a useful component of a fertility simulation would be proportions of females sterile by age. Data on this phenomenon are rather limited, but they indicate that proportional sterility may not easily be described by a simple function. We propose that rates of becoming sterile may be adequately described by an exponential function utilizing proper parameter values. Such exponential-model rates form the basis for computation of a fecundity decrement table presented in this paper. Sterility proportions from the table are compared to some empirical data.