bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
On the Design of Agricultural Policy Mechanisms
Authors: Chambers Robert G. 
Published: July 2006

AbstractThe fact that different agricultural policy mechanisms have emerged for different commodities suggests that the choice of policy instrument may reflect the goals of agricultural policy makers. This paper uses the principles of mechanism design under asymmetric information to examine the motivations underlying the choice of agricultural policy mechanisms. It is found that supply control mechanisms favor high‐cost producers and the budget, while mechanisms resulting in overproduction favor low‐cost producers.
Agricultural Bank Portfolio Adjustments to Risk
Authors: Pederson Glenn D. 
Published: July 2006

AbstractAn asset allocation model is developed in which the bank's problem is one of selecting the mix of loan assets and securities that will generate desired levels of portfolio return and risk. A reduced‐form, econometric model is derived and historical rural bank asset allocations are predicted. Asset equations show consistency with the framework of equilibrium adjustments under uncertainty. Higher expected default rates on variable rate loans result in significant joint effects, which alter a bank's optimal allocation.
Ex Ante Evaluation of the Economic Impact of Agricultural Biotechnology: The Case of Porcine Somatotropin
Authors: Lemieux Catherine M. , Wohlgenant Michael K. 
Published: July 2006

AbstractIntroduction of a new growth hormone, porcine somatotropin, will have a significant impact on the U.S. pork industry. Ex ante effects are estimated using a linear elasticity model, which accounts for interrelationships between domestic and international markets for hogs and pork, different adoption rates and lengths of run for supply, and consumer demand shifts from leaner pork. The paper shows how to use experimental data to quantify production function and supply shifts. Results indicate that, for a five‐year adjustment period, producers' surplus will increase between $@@‐@@250 million and $@@‐@@720 million; consumers' surplus will increase between $@@‐@@900 million and $@@‐@@1.95 billion.
Incomplete Markets and Government Agriculture Policy
Authors: Innes Robert D. , Rausser Gordon C. 
Published: July 2006

AbstractThis paper investigates the welfare effects of several stereotypical agricultural policies in an economy with production risk and incomplete contingent claim markets. The policies analyzed include target price/deficiency payment programs (the Brannan Plan), production controls (the Cochrane Plan), and land set‐asides. When there is no trading in contingent claims and when economic parameters take on values characteristic of staple food markets, the paper finds that a joint Brannan Plan—production control program is often welfare increasing. However, production controls on their own tend to be welfare decreasing. In addition, land set‐asides are generally welfare reducing, even in the presence of a Brannan plan. These results are derived analytically in a simple equilibrium model. They are illustrated with a numerical example which demonstrates that welfare benefits from typical agricultural policy interventions can be large.
Factor Price Stabilization and the Competitive Firm
Authors: Devadoss S. , Choi E. Kwan 
Published: July 2006

AbstractThis paper investigates the effects of factor price stabilization on production decisions of the competitive firm with ex post production flexibility. Factor price stabilization is achieved through changes in the guaranteed minimum price and the imposed maximum price. For the risk‐averse firm, the effect of factor price stabilization, through a mean‐preserving contraction, on capital crucially depends on whether capital and the variable input are substitutes or complements as well as the observable characteristics of the variable input demand curve.
Measuring the Potential Contribution of Plant Breeding to Crop Yields: Flue‐Cured Tobacco, 1954–87
Authors: Babcock Bruce A. , Foster William E. 
Published: July 2006

AbstractMeasurements are made of plant breeders' success in increasing potential flue‐cured tobacco yields from 1954 to 1987 in North Carolina. Nongenetic sources of yield increases are measured by the yield levels of a standard variety. New genetic material accounted for between 20% and 35% of yield increases on research station plots in the three tobacco‐growing regions. Recent genetic contributions have been small. The slowdown is not attributable to a federal tobacco policy shift in 1965 that slowed the growth in grower yields. There is also no evidence that tobacco breeders increased their output in response to the Plant Variety Protection Act of 1970.
Dynamic Adjustment in the Japanese Livestock Industry Under Beef Import Liberalization
Authors: Wahl Thomas I. , Hayes Dermot J. , Williams Gary W. 
Published: July 2006

AbstractDynamic adjustment of Japanese livestock markets is analyzed under two alternative import policies: the 1988 Japanese Beef Market Access Agreement (BMAA) and complete liberalization of Japanese beef import policies. Modeling problems associated with these policies include the change from a quota to a tariff, the incorporation of a meat demand system derived from utility‐maximizing behavior into a livestock policy model, complementarity, and changes in the degree of producer supply responsiveness under alternative policies. An econometric model of the Japanese livestock industry is used to simulate and compare the impacts of the two policies from 1988 through 1997.
Testing the Stability of Preferences: A Nonparametric Approach
Authors: Sakong Yong , Hayes Dermot J. 
Published: July 2006

AbstractA test for preference stability is developed that strengthens existing nonparametric procedures. The test uses indifference curve convexity to restrict (unobservable) compensated consumption bundles. Adding up, noninferiority, and the Slutsky equation are used to limit the range of these compensated consumption bundles. A program is proposed that simultaneously measures the changes in consumption quantities satisfying the theoretical restrictions and the expenditure elasticities minimizing the required changes. The program is applied to meat consumption data and is shown to be capable of detecting small changes in preference.
Forecasting Performance of Corn and Soybean Harvest Futures Contracts
Authors: Kenyon David , Jones Eluned , McGuirk M. Anya 
Published: July 2006

AbstractIn contrast to earlier periods, post 1973 spring prices of December corn and November soybean futures contracts have not been good forecasts of harvest price. Regression analysis of price forecast variance before and after 1973 indicates that the decline in forecasting accuracy is related to increased yield forecast errors and to reduced interference of government loan rates on market price determination. Since these futures are poor forecasts, producers should not rely on futures prices alone to allocate resources at planting time unless they simultaneously forward price.
Separability in State‐Level Agricultural Technology
Authors: Lim Hongil , Shumway C. Richard 
Published: July 2006

AbstractA nonparametric analysis of separability in agricultural production technology was conducted using state‐level data. Both deterministic (exhaustive search) and stochastic (measurement error) tests were performed. The empirical findings do not rule out a reasonable amount of data aggregation, both among inputs and among outputs. The nature and extent of the justified aggregation varies widely among states, supporting the notion that the structure of agricultural production varies in important ways across states.
Relative Agricultural Prices and Monetary Policy
Authors: Lapp John S. 
Published: July 2006

AbstractAn imperfect information, rational expectations model of relative price determination is presented. This model provides an econometric specification for testing for a causal relationship between money and the relative prices of agricultural commodities. Test results indicate that variations in the growth rate of the nominal money supply (whether anticipated or unanticipated) have not been an important influence on the average level of prices received by farmers relative to other prices in the economy over the period 1951–85.
Exchange Rate Risk and U.S. Agricultural Trade Flows
Authors: Pick Daniel H. 
Published: July 2006

AbstractThis paper analyzes the effect of exchange rate risk on U.S. agricultural trade flows. A model which incorporates exchange rate risk is applied to ten countries. While exchange rate risk was not significant in the seven developed markets, results indicate that the exchange rate variable adversely affected U.S. agricultural exports to the three developing countries used in the analysis. These findings underscore the importance of exchange rate risk in developing countries trading behavior. Issues such as establishment of well‐developed financial and commodity markets in developing countries must be addressed in future research.
The RLS Positive‐Part Stein Estimator
Authors: Adkins Lee C. , Hill R. Carter 
Published: July 2006

AbstractThe RLS Stein‐rule estimator of the classical normal linear regression model is formed by taking a linear combination of the least squares and restricted least squares estimators. Using a simple analytical device, we prove that the convex combination known as the RLS positive‐part Stein estimator dominates the conventional version under weighted quadratic loss. Possible uses for the positive‐part estimator in economic and agricultural economic research are discussed.
Some Neglected Social Costs of Government Spending in Farm Programs
Authors: Alston Julian M. , Hurd Brian H. 
Published: July 2006

AbstractEconomic welfare analyses of farm programs typically assume that the direct social opportunity cost of subsidy payments is one dollar per dollar of government spending. Recent literature suggests that the marginal opportunity cost of a dollar of U.S. federal government spending is more likely to be in the range of $@@‐@@1.20 to $@@‐@@1.50. This implies that the net social costs of farm programs that involve government spending are significantly greater than the typical estimates. In addition, the normative efficiency ranking of alternative policies is sensitive to the marginal opportunity cost of government spending.
Supply Analysis in an Oligopsony Model
Authors: Chen Zhigang , Lent Rebecca 
Published: July 2006

AbstractPrimary agricultural markets are often characterized by oligopsony. This paper investigates the effect of an agricultural product supply shift on the equilibrium prices and quantities of farm products purchased by food processors. and on profits of food processors. The principal comparative static result indicates that, under oligopsony, qualitative implications of a disturbance in the supply of raw input differ from that under perfect competition and monopsony. Effects of other disturbances are identical in sign to the perfectly competitive case, although magnitudes may differ. Implications for supply estimation and agricultural policy analysis are briefly discussed.
Feeder Cattle Forecasting Models: An Econometric Study of Development and Performance
Authors: Wilson Christine A. 
Published: July 2006

AbstractThe purpose of this paper is to identify whether an intricate forecasting model which takes into consideration selling price, cost of gain, and seasonality will perform better at forecasting quarterly feeder cattle prices than a simpler model based only on the futures price of feeder cattle. Although both models exhibited good forecasting ability, econometric calculations demonstrated that the complex model had more accurate forecasting ability than did the futures model. Both models performed similarly in their ability to predict the directional movement of feeder cattle price.
A Comparison of Oligopoly Welfare Loss Estimates for U.S. Food Manufacturing
Authors: Peterson Everett B. , Connor John M. 
Published: July 2006

AbstractCapitalizing on theoretical advances in calculating deadweight welfare losses due to imperfect competition, we compare eight empirical estimates for the U.S. food manufacturing industries. The estimates incorporate varying theoretical assumptions about demand, supply, and firm pricing behavior; and utilize various data sources, time periods, and assumptions about the proper competitive benchmark. While the estimates of average allocative losses range widely, there is a high degree of congruence in the rankings of economic losses due to market power. Thus, from the perspective of efficient antitrust enforcement, the newer theoretical oligopoly approaches and the traditional structure‐conduct‐performance models would target similar industries.
Demand for an Undergraduate Education in the Agricultural Sciences
Authors: Thompson Richard P. , Capps Oral , Massey Joseph G. 
Published: July 2006

AbstractUndergaduate enrollments in the agricultural and natural resource sciences (AGNR) declined during the 1980s. The present study sought to analyze factors affecting the drop in demand for an AGNR education. Two time‐series pooled models were employed: a household production function (HPF) variant and a Mincerian human capital form. The HPF variant offers the empirical advantage of a price expression that accounts for changes in AGNR demand beyond significant wealth, structural, regional, and gender effects. High opportunity costs of AGNR careers stalled demand during the 1980s—a problem that may persist for some AGNR career areas.
Heterogeneous Preferences and Aggregation in Environmental Policy Analysis: A Landfill Siting Case
Authors: Swallow Stephen K. , Weaver Thomas , Opaluch James J. , Michelman Thomas S. 
Published: July 2006

AbstractIn many studies of nonmarket resources, economists have data to disaggregate results according to subpopulations within the full study population. Disaggregated results can increase the usefulness of economic analyses, improve public confidence in the results, and permit public officials to assess equity concerns. We outline an approach to obtain disaggregated results when characteristics of individuals may identify distinct preferences. The approach is applied to public preferences regarding landfill siting decisions. The discussion explores the implications of disaggregated results for policy decisions, for bias in aggregate willingness‐to‐pay estimates, and for nonmarket research methodologies.
Optimal Replacement and Management Policies for Beef Cows
Authors: Frasier W. Marshall , Pfeiffer George H. 
Published: July 2006

AbstractBeef cow replacement studies have not reflected the interaction between herd management and the culling decision. We demonstrate techniques for modeling optimal beef cow replacement intervals and discrete management policies by incorporating the dynamic effects of management on future productivity when biological response is uncertain. Markovian decision analysis is used to identify optimal beef cow management on a ranch typical of the Sandhills region of Nebraska. Issues of breeding season length, winter nutrition, and replacement are investigated. Results illustrate the importance of nutrition management in the replacement decision.
Government Institutional Effects on the Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts
Authors: Mjelde James W. , Thompson Troy N. , Nixon Clair J. 
Published: July 2006

AbstractThe impact of government institutions on the value of improved climate forecasts is examined. Results suggest that crop insurance and earned income tax credit have little effect on the expected change in after‐tax cash flows. Federal tax law has only a modest influence. As expected, the disaster program decreases the value of improved climate forecasts. With no price changes, the farm program lowers the value of the forecasts because of the acreage reduction provisions. With at least some price decreases, the farm program increases the value of climate forecasts. Here, the price supports override the acreage reduction provisions.
Cigarette Taxes and Smoking Restrictions: Impacts and Policy Implications
Authors: Brown A. Blake 
Published: July 2006

AbstractThe effects of recently proposed increases in cigarette excise taxes and smoking restrictions on tobacco prices and quantities, quota lease rates, and revenues to tobacco‐producing areas are analyzed. The price elasticity of demand for U.S. cigarette exports is estimated. Proportionally similar increases in smoking restrictions or cigarette taxes are shown to have effects of similar magnitude on cigarette consumption. A policy of reducing price instead of the quantity produced is found to minimize the impact of increased taxes and smoking restrictions on revenues to tobacco‐producing areas.
A Theoretical and Empirical Evaluation of the Functional Forms Used to Estimate the Food Expenditure Equation of Food Stamp Recipients
Authors: Levedahl J. William 
Published: July 2006

AbstractThe food expenditure equation of food stamp recipients is obtained as a generalization of Roy's identity. This equation rationalizes a larger marginal propensity to spend on food out of food stamps than out of income, and is an alternative to the traditional Southworth formulation. The only previously estimated functional form found to be flexible is due to Senauer and Young. Estimates of this specification using data from the San Diego Cash‐Out Demonstration illustrates that flexibility is important. An example of welfare reform demonstrates that substantial errors can occur if flexibility is ignored.
Measuring the Marginal Cost of Nonuniform Environmental Regulations
Authors: Sunding David L. 
Published: July 2006

AbstractA method is presented for measuring the marginal welfare cost of environmental regulations affecting agriculture. The method incorporates output market effects and recognizes diversity in production conditions among crops, regions, and seasons. An important advantage of the method is that only regional outputs and changes in regional production costs are needed to calculate deadweight loss, thus simplifying the measurement of welfare changes. This feature of the model is significant since the complexity and substantial data requirements of most existing impact models cause many environmental regulations to be enacted with inadequate analysis of their economic impacts. The method also disaggregates welfare impacts by crop, place, and time, thus encouraging the implementation of nonuniform interventions that achieve a given level of environmental quality more efficiently than uniform policies.
Second‐Best Tax Policies to Reduce Nonpoint Source Pollution
Authors: Larson Douglas M. , Helfand Gloria E. , House Brett W. 
Published: July 2006

AbstractControl of nonpoint source pollution often requires regulation of inputs, but first‐best solutions are unattainable. Because inputs are monitored by different agencies and regulatory coordination can be costly, it may be more practical to regulate single inputs. A cost‐effectiveness approach to determining the best single‐input tax policy is developed and applied to the question of reducing nitrate leaching from lettuce production in California. Water is the best single input to regulate, and efficiency losses from this second‐best approach appear not to be great. Conditions for the welfare ranking of policies to be invariant to heterogeneity in production or leaching are identified.
Farmer Response to Modified Crop Insurance: A Case Study of Corn in Indiana
Authors: Vandeveer Monte L. , Loehman Edna T. 
Published: July 2006

AbstractThis study examines the potential effects on crop insurance of more detailed yield risk classifications combined with alternative premium‐setting techniques, and higher yield guarantees combined with coinsurance. Corn producers in Tippecanoe County, Indiana, were surveyed for their responses to these changes. Response to area yield insurance is also evaluated. The modified MPCI program, area yield insurance, and two types of disaster payment programs are also compared in terms of their costs and coverage.
Effects on a Corn‐Soybean Farm of Uncertainty about the Future of Farm Programs
Authors: Duffy Patricia A. , Taylor C. Robert 
Published: July 2006

AbstractDynamic programming techniques are used to evaluate effects of uncertainty about continuation of farm programs on planting decisions during the last year of the 1990 Farm Bill. Results indicate farm‐level decisions are affected by uncertainty only when the farmer's subjective probability of the continuation of farm programs is very low. The optimal value functions in different versions of the model can also be used to estimate the implicit value of base acreage.
Household Consumption of Cheese: An Inverse Hyperbolic Sine Double‐Hurdle Model with Dependent Errors
Authors: Yen Steven T. , Jones Andrew M. 
Published: July 2006

AbstractThe dependent double‐hurdle model is generalized by an inverse hyperbolic sine transformation of the dependent variable. The resulting specification features a flexible parameterization, accommodates heteroskedastic errors, and nests a range of common limited dependent variable models. Results for U.S. household cheese consumption suggest that the homoskedastic and normal double‐hurdle model is misspecified. Income elasticities are small and vary across household groups. Foodstamp recipients are more responsive to income changes than nonrecipients. Foodstamp recipients are also less likely to consume cheese but, conditional on consumption, spend more than nonrecipients.
Rural/Urban Effects of Terminating Farm Subsidies
Authors: Kilkenny Maureen 
Published: July 2006

AbstractA rural‐urban interregional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is constructed to simulate the effects of terminating farm subsidies on household incomes, employment rates, farm and non‐farm sectoral activity, regional costs of living, and other economic indicators. The magnitudes of the effects depend on regional factor and goods market segmentation. Robust short‐run implications are that ceasing farm subsidies would cause rural nonfarm (particularly household service sector) employment to fall and lead to lower household income. On the other hand, rural manufacturing activity expands and the cost of living falls relative to urban. Urban employment, household income, and land rents rise. Although termination of farm subsidies causes a decline in rural real product, the urban real product gain outweighs rural losses.
An Intraseasonal Dynamic Optimization Model to Allocate Irrigation Water between Crops
Authors: Bryant Kelly J. , Mjelde James W. , Lacewell Ronald D. 
Published: July 2006

AbstractA dynamic programming model that allocates irrigations among competing crops, while allowing for stochastic weather patterns and temporary or permanent abandonment of one crop in dry periods, is presented. Fifteen intraseasonal irrigations are allocated between corn and sorghum fields on the southern Texas High Plains. Broad rules of thumb implied by the results suggest irrigating the driest field in any stage unless soil water is close to field capacity on both fields or below wilting point on corn. A crop simulation model is used to reduce the complicated decision rules into simpler strategies with similar net returns.
Misspecification Testing: A Comprehensive Approach
Authors: McGuirk Anya M. , Driscoll Paul , Alwang Jeffrey 
Published: July 2006

AbstractMisspecification tests of individual assumptions underlying regression models often lead to erroneous conclusions regarding source of misspecification. Monte Carlo experiments demonstrate that a comprehensive set of individual and joint tests reduces the likelihood of such conclusions. A practical testing strategy is proposed and suggestions made regarding its implementation.