bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Fertility Planning Status: United States, 1965
Authors: Ryder Norman B. , Westoff Charles F. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Data concerning the planning circumstances of the interval preceding each pregnancy, collected from a national sample of 4810 married women, are used to establish the fertility planning status of each respondent as one of five classes: (1) never-pregnant; (2) number failure; (3) at least one timing failure; (4) at least one timing success; (5) neither success nor failure. For the ever-pregnant women who intended no more children, 32 percent of the exposed were number failures and 62 percent of the rest were timing failures. For the ever-pregnant women who intended more children, 67 percent of the exposed were timing failures. Women not exposed to the risk of timing failure because they claimed to want all of their pregnancies as soon as possible had similar characteristics to women reporting failures; accordingly the reliability of their reports is suspect. The probabilities of failure are well-patterned by race, religion and education: higher for Blacks than for Whites; within the latter, higher for Catholics than for Non-Catholics; and inversely related to education, except among White Catholics. Although uniformly high, the proportions classified as failures are probably under-estimates of the true values for completed families, because of misreporting and continuing exposure to risk, subsequent to interview.
Southern Negro Migration: Social and Economic Components of an Ecological Model
Authors: Stinner William F. , De Jong Gordon F. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This paper considers social and economic correlates of age-specific 1950-1960 net migration of Negro males from a sample of 150 southern counties. A model is developed with five components: (1) economic activity and urbanization, (2) white traditionalism, (3) demographic and ecological pressure, (4) nonwhite poverty, and (5) nonwhite home ownership. The dominant migration forces, as evidenced by correlations with component indicator variables, are the “pull” factor of change in nonprimary industrial employment, the “push” factor of population pressure in the nonwhite rural-farm sector, and the “push” of white traditionalism. However, the significance of model components varied when analyzed along age and industrial development continua. In the younger age groupings, industrial employment growth, population pressure, and white traditionalism were dominant migratory forces while in the older age groupings, industrial employment growth and non-home ownership were most significant. For Negro males in agricultural counties, the major migration propellents appeared to be the “push” of population pressure in the rural farm sector and non-ownership of homes. On the other hand the statistical explanation for Negro migration in more industrialized southern counties rests primarily with the “pull” of increased employment in non-primary industries along with population pressure. The importance of the findings for migration theory is discussed.
Note on some problems in interpreting migration data from the 1960 Census of population
Authors: Miller Ann R. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Movements of young men into and out of the armed forces and youth entering and leaving the college population are an important component of the migration between 1955 and 1960 recorded in the 1960 Census of the, United States. Measures of the migration behavior of persons in the armed forces or attending college at the end of the period (1960) are presented to show the substantial volume of these special types of movement. Under 1960 Census procedures, no corresponding measures of the migration behavior of persons in the armed forces or attending college at the beginning of the period (1955) can be obtained. A sizeable number of the “migrants,” especially the young and well educated, identified in the 1960 Censuses must be persons who were in the armed forces or away at college in 1955 and, by 1960, had completed their military service or their education and returned to their previous places of residence.
Age at marriage as a variable in socio-economic differentials in fertility
Authors: Bumpass Larry 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Earlier studies have pointed out that socio-economic differentials in fertility depend upon both religion and farm background. These studies report a negative relation between fertility and socio-economic status for non-Catholic American couples in contrast to a positive relation for Catholics. Likewise, a negative differential for American couples with farm background has been observed in contrast to no differential for twogeneration urbanites. Age at marriage is a third such interaction variable: the strong negative socio-economic differential observed when wife’s age at marriage is under 19 diminishes with advancing age at marriage and becomes positive for wives who married at age 23 or older. Moreover, for both non-Catholics and Catholics, couples with and without farm background, the differential by wife’s education is negative when wife’s age at marriage is young, positive when her age at marriage is old. Both sociological factors (the incidence of non-familial adult roles) and differential fecundity appear to underlie the interaction. The analysis is based on reports of once-married, white, nonfarm wives aged 30 to 39 included in the 1955 or 1960 Growth of American Families Studies or the 1965 National Fertility Study (approximately 1,000 in each survey).
Fertility and economic activity of women in Guatemala city, 1964
Authors: Gendell Murray , Maravlglla Maria Nydia , Kreitner Philip C. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Data from a five percent census sample reveal that in Guatemala City in 1964 economically active women, especially domestic servants, had lower cumulative fertility than inactive women, partly because larger proportions of them had never married and were childless. However, even among ever married mothers there was a substantial differential, which was not due to differences in age at first birth. With respect to all women, cross tabulation and regression analysis show that age, marital status and educational attainment were more strongly associated with fertility than was activity status, but the latter also had a significant net association. Selection for sterility was not likely. Being contrary to expectations expressed in the literature, the very low fertility of the domestics received further attention. Live-in domestics had considerably lower fertility than those who lived out, which was also the case in the United States in 1960. These data and other evidence strongly suggest that this differential is due to a widespread employer preference for single or childless women. The concept of role incompatibility is therefore inapplicable to domestic servants. These findings add to the considerable evidence showing lower fertility among economically active women in large urban places in Latin America.
The decline in mortality in British Guiana, 1911-1960
Authors: Mandle Jay R. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
In this paper an attempt is made to describe the pattern of declining mortality in British Guiana between 1911 and 1960. Specifically we identify the disease-specific mortality rates whose declines contributed most to the overall improvement, we consider the possibility that changing economic circumstances may have contributed to the decline in mortality, and we survey the improvements in public health facilities which occurred during the period. Broadly our conclusion is that improvements in public health facilities and not economic advances were responsible for the dramatic decline in mortality which was experienced. Before 1940 these advances took the form of improvements in the quality of the country’s water supplies, in methods of disposing of waste, and in medical facilities especially on the colony’s sugar estates. In addition, there was an advance in the dissemination of information with respect to pre- and post-natal care. In the postwar period British Guiana’s famous D.D.T. experiment was the most important reason death rates continued to fall.
The geometric mean of the age-specific death rates as a summary index of mortality
Authors: Schoen Robert 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
Even though a single summary index of mortality can never replace the set of age-specific death rates, it has been found to be extremely useful for a wide variety of purposes. Such indexes are generally one of two types: aggregative indexes, such as directly standardized rates which reflect absolute differences between corresponding age-specific mortality rates; and average of relatives indexes which reflect proportional differences between those rates. The choice of index depends upon the purposes for which it is to be used, and is important as different indexes can produce very different results. While directly standardized rates are widely used, they depend upon the selection of an appropriate standard population and give disproportionately heavy weight to the high ages. Average of relatives indexes give equal weight to all ages, but are infrequently used as no index of that type has gained wide acceptability. This paper recommends the use of the geometric mean of the age-specific mortality rates as such an index, and shows that this index is readily calculable, unbiased, needs no standard population, is directly comparable to all other indexes so calculated, and accurately reflects exponential mortality patterns.
Subjective efficacy and ideal family size as predictors of favorability toward birth control
Authors: Williamson John B. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
This study is an assessment of the relevance of subjective efficacy and ideal family size as predictors of favorability toward birth control. The samples considered are male factory workers in five developing nations. The effects of ideal family size and subjective efficacy are generally strong relative to those of education and the other social variables that are considered. The focus of the study is an analysis of whether subjective efficacy and ideal family size function more as independent determinants or more as intervening variables. Overall these psychological variables function more as independent determinants than as intervening variables, but in some samples these two functions are equally important.
Stable age by region distributions
Authors: Feeney Griffith M. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
If the pattern of fertility, mortality and interregional migration exhibited by the United States population during 1950–60 were to continue in the future, the proportions of persons in the various age groups and regions would fluctuate from decade to decade. These fluctuations would become less marked with time, however, and eventually all the proportions would stabilize at certain fixed values. This collection of values may be called astable age by region composition corresponding to the given schedule of fertility, mortality and migration. The same phenomenon may be observed when individuals move between socioeconomic categories as, for example, socioeconomic status or educational attainment levels. The substantial differences between these various situations conceal remarkable similarities. In each case the continued operation of schedules of fertility, mortality and mobility between categories may result in a stable composition. The purpose of this paper is to shed some light on the nature of these stable compositions, on the interrelation between their various components, and on their relation to the patterns of fertility, mortality and mobility which generate them.
Estimators of a type I geometric distribution from observations on conception times
Authors: Majumdar H. , Sheps Mindel C. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
In order to study distributions of fecundability, Potter and Parker fitted a Pearson Type I geometric distribution (with parametersa andb) to data from the Princeton Fertility Study. They, and subsequently other authors, estimateda andb from the observed moments of the month of first conception. A critical analysis of this method has shown that moment estimators ofa andb are moderately reliable only within a specified range of values ofa. Outside this range, either the estimators are extremely inefficient or their variances are not defined at all. Caution should therefore be taken in adopting this procedure. Furthermore, no moment estimate is defined whena is less than 2. It seems preferable to derive maximum likelihood estimates which have certain optimal properties and are defined for all permissible (i.e. positive) values ofa andb.
For large samples, we here present: the covariance matrix (where defined) of the moment estimators, methods of obtaining maximum likelihood estimates and their covariance matrix, and the variances of estimates of specified moments of the fecundability of the sample. Results were obtained for three sets of data; in all cases, the maximum likelihood estimates fit the data better than do the moment estimates. Despite a substantial improvement, however, the fit is still poor for the two sets of data from the Princeton Fertility Study. Possible explanations are: a) that the departures from the assumption of constant fecundability for each couple are sufficient to produce the poor fit, b) that the data are inaccurate, or c) that the method of defining the sample of women from whom the data were obtained resulted in an over-representation of short conception times. The relative importance of these factors is difficult to establish.
Elementary models for population growth and distribution analysis
Authors: Hudson John C. 
Published: March 2007

Abstract
A version of the Lotka-Volterra interaction model is adapted to describe population growth and migration processes in a two-region system. The regions are identified as a metropolis and its non-metropolitan hinterland. Several conditions on growth and migration regimes are imposed. The time behavior of the systems are analyzed, noting especially situations where total depopulation or population explosion eventually occur in one or both populations. Neither growth control nor migration control alone results in a condition of long-run stability in both regions. If at least a momentary condition of zero growth is achieved in both regions, it is possible to maintain finite populations if each population follows a logistic natural growth process and migration flow is proportional to the volume of interaction. It is necessary also that the natural increase limitation is strong relative to migration rates. This result holds even if one population has a net migration advantage over the other.
Recent developments in seasonally adjusting vital statistics
Authors: Rosenberg Harry M. 
Published: March 2007

Summary
Birth rates, marriage rates, and death rates computed on a monthly basis have exhibited relatively stable seasonal patterns over a period of years. Elimination of these seasonal fluctuations facilitates the description and interpretation of month-to-month changes in the underlying trend of the rates. Several methods have recently been developed, using an electronic computer, to identify and remove the seasonal component from time series of monthly data. The methods are basically adaptations of a standard technique—the ratio-to-moving average method—for seasonally adjusting time series.
The application of seasonal adjustment programs by electronic computer to vital statistics yields useful information about their seasonal component and provides a means to estimate the trend of current as well as retrospective data. Seasonally adjusted birth, marriage, and death rates for recent years are shown.
Continuing research should yield better approximations of the trend for birth and marriages and improved methods for isolating the epidemic component of mortality time series.
A study in family planning communication—Direct mailing
Authors: Bhatia Brajesh , Dubey Dinesh C. , Devgan Avtar K. 
Published: March 2007

Summary
It is sometimes stated that direct mailing to individuals in developing countries like India may be wasteful due to the low literacy rate among village people. Direct mailing is a relatively new development in India and comparatively a newer channel of communication. An exploratory study was carried out by the Central Family Planning Institute to test this hypothesis. The observations made showed that direct mailing is practical, controllable, inexpensive, and useful.
The information provided by direct mailing seems to cross the barriers of illiteracy. Based on this experience, the Central Family Planning Institute has initiated a large-scale communication action research project in Meerut district in North India where the impact of direct mailing on specific groups is being studied further. It is hoped that such studies would help in developing prototype information material and would provide a methodology to supplement the available channels of communication in a nation-wide family planning program.
Economic development and fertility
Authors: Heer David M. 
Published: March 2007

Summary
Two schools of theorists have been concerned with the effect of economic development on fertility. One school has contended that economic development has an inhibiting effect on fertility. The demographic transition which has occurred among the non-developed countries confirms their viewpoint. Another school of thought, including in its members Thomas Malthus, has believed that economic development promoted fertility. Much empirical evidence may also be brought to bear to support this viewpoint.
The present paper attempts to reconcile these viewpoints. It is hypothesized that the direct effect of economic development is to increase fertility. However, various factors which usually accompany the process of economic development serve to reduce fertility. These include an increase in the level of education and a reduction in infant and childhood mortality. Making use of data for 41 nations pertaining to the decade of the 1950's, it is found that fertility is directly associated with per capita net national product when controls for other relevant variables are in8tituted. On the other hand, per capita newspaper circulation is inversely related to fertility, and infant mortality is directly related.
If the hypothesis advanced in this paper is correct, relatively large governmental expenditures on health and education will enhance the reduction in fertility obtainable from an increase in national economic level alone.
Contributions of natality models to program planning and evaluation
Authors: Sheps Mindel C. 
Published: March 2007

Summary
This paper is an attempt to describe and assess the contributions made by the newer quantitative models of natality to program planning and development. Considerable interest in models of natality is being reflected in reports of a large variety of ideas, suggestions, and proposed models. In view of this current activity, any assessment made now of the contributions of these models can be only tentative and should consider also prospects for the future.
The present approach to assessment will be made in three parts: a description of recent developments in natality models, a discussion of the contributions of newer models, and a consideration of prospects for the future. The discussion applies not only to models whose primary focus is on natality but also to more general models that investigate natality among other processes.
A computer model of family building based on expected values
Authors: Potter Robert G. , Sakoda James M. 
Published: March 2007

Summary
A computerized probability model of family building is described. Called FERMOD, the model is designed to follow the changing distribution of children ever born and birth intervals of a large homogeneous population as it moves through the reproductive period. Use of the model presupposes assumptions about such factors as risks of fetal wastage, lengths of pregnancy, and postdelivery amenorrhea conditional to outcome of pregnancy, length of reproductive period, fecundability, desired family size, preferred birth spacing!, and effectiveness of contraception. Use of FERMOD is illustrated in a limited application to United States fertility. Relations to other models are briefly discussed.
Validity of centenarian data in the 1960 Census
Authors: Myers Robert J. 
Published: March 2007

Summary
This paper examines the question of how many genuine centenarians there actually are in the United States as compared with those reported in the census. It is concluded that the numbers of centenarians shown in various United States censuses are definite overstatements of the number of true centenarians. It seems likely that instead of the 10,326 centenarians reported in the 1960 census there were at most only about 3,700. Overstatement of ages seems to be particularly the case among those who claim to be aged 110 or over, and it is believed that there probably are no persons who are actually this old.
The analysis has been made by projecting, through the me of population life table survival factors, the populations reported cit carious advanced age groups in one census to the next census and then comparing the results with the corresponding number reported in the latter census for the same age cohort. In general, the enumerated populations at ages below 95 are reasonably close to the projected populations, especially for white persons. On the other hand, at ages 95 and over—especially for centenarians—the enumerated populations significantly exceed the projected ones.
As a subsidiary part of the analysis, the paper points out the significant differences at the older ages between the “full count” age distribution in the 1960 census and the corresponding “inflated 25 per cent sample” one. This is a subject that bears further investigation and explanation.
The paper also discusses centenarians on the social security benefit rolls and concludes that the present data cannot be considered of substantial accuracy with regard to genuine centenarians, particularly the oldest ones. In a number of years, however, this program will provide excellent data, became the individuals involved will have been on the benefit rolls for many years and will have had their ages proved with reasonable accuracy.