bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Improving Week-2 Forecasts with Multimodel Reforecast Ensembles
Authors: Whitaker Jeffrey S. , Wei Xue , Vitart Frédéric 
Published: August 2006

Abstract
It has recently been demonstrated that model output statistics (MOS) computed from a long retrospective dataset of ensemble “reforecasts” from a single model can significantly improve the skill of probabilistic week-2 forecasts (with the same model). In this study the technique is extended to a multimodel reforecast dataset consisting of forecasts from ECMWF and NCEP global models. Even though the ECMWF model is more advanced than the version of the NCEP model used (it has more than double the horizontal resolution and is about five years newer), the forecasts produced by the multimodel MOS technique are more skillful than those produced by the MOS technique applied to either the NCEP or ECMWF forecasts alone. These results demonstrate that the MOS reforecast approach yields benefits for week-2 forecasts that are just as large for high-resolution state-of-the-art models as they are for relatively low resolution out-of-date models. Furthermore, operational forecast centers can benefit by sharing both retrospective reforecast datasets and real-time forecasts.
Predictability Mysteries in Cloud-Resolving Models
Authors: Hohenegger Cathy , Lüthi Daniel , Schär Christoph 
Published: August 2006

Abstract
The rapid amplification of small-amplitude perturbations by the chaotic nature of the atmospheric dynamics intrinsically limits the skill of deterministic weather forecasts. In this study, limited-area cloud-resolving numerical weather prediction (NWP) experiments are conducted to investigate the role of mesoscale processes in determining predictability. The focus is set on domain-internal error growth by integrating an ensemble of simulations using slightly modified initial conditions but identical lateral boundary conditions. It is found that the predictability of the three investigated cases taken from the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP) differs tremendously. In terms of normalized precipitation spread, values between 0.05 (highly predictable) and 1 (virtually unpredictable) are obtained. Analysis of the derived ensemble spread demonstrates that the diabatic forcing associated with moist dynamics is the prime source of rapid error growth. However, in agreement with an earlier study it is found that the differentiation between convective and stratiform rain is unable to account for the distinctive precipitation spreads of the three cases. In particular, instability indices are demonstrated to be poor predictors of the predictability level. An alternate hypothesis is proposed and tested. It is inspired by the dynamical instability theory and states that significant loss of predictability only occurs over moist convectively unstable regions that are able to sustain propagation of energy against the mean flow. Using a linear analysis of gravity wave propagation, this hypothesis is shown to provide successful estimates of the predictability level for the three cases under consideration.
Sensitivity of the Tropospheric Circulation to Changes in the Strength of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex
Authors: Jung Thomas , Barkmeijer Jan 
Published: August 2006

Abstract
The sensitivity of the wintertime tropospheric circulation to changes in the strength of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex is studied using one of the latest versions of the ECMWF model. Three sets of experiments were carried out: one control integration and two integrations in which the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex has been gradually reduced and increased, respectively, during the course of the integration. The strength of the polar vortex is changed by applying a forcing to the model tendencies in the stratosphere only. The forcing has been obtained using the adjoint technique. It is shown that, in the ECMWF model, changes in the strength of the polar vortex in the middle and lower stratosphere have a significant and slightly delayed (on the order of days) impact on the tropospheric circulation. The tropospheric response shows some resemblance to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), though the centers of action are slightly shifted toward the east compared to those of the NAO. Furthermore, a separate comparison of the response to a weak and strong vortex forcing suggests that to first order the tropospheric response is linear within a range of realistic stratospheric perturbations. From the results presented, it is argued that extended-range forecasts in the European area particularly benefit from the stratosphere–troposphere link.
On the Use of QuikSCAT Scatterometer Measurements of Surface Winds for Marine Weather Prediction
Authors: Chelton Dudley B. , Freilich Michael H. , Sienkiewicz Joseph M. , Von Ahn Joan M. 
Published: August 2006

AbstractThe value of Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) measurements of 10-m ocean vector winds for marine weather prediction is investigated from two Northern Hemisphere case studies. The first of these focuses on an intense cyclone with hurricane-force winds that occurred over the extratropical western North Pacific on 10 January 2005. The second is a 17 February 2005 example that is typical of sea surface temperature influence on low-level winds in moderate wind conditions in the vicinity of the Gulf Stream in the western North Atlantic. In both cases, the analyses of 10-m winds from the NCEP and ECMWF global numerical weather prediction models considerably underestimated the spatial variability of the wind field on scales smaller than 1000 km compared with the structure determined from QuikSCAT observations. The NCEP and ECMWF models both assimilate QuikSCAT observations. While the accuracies of the 10-m wind analyses from these models measurably improved after implementation of the QuikSCAT data assimilation, the information content in the QuikSCAT data is underutilized by the numerical models. QuikSCAT data are available in near–real time in the NOAA/NCEP Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (N-AWIPS) and are used extensively in manual analyses of surface winds. The high resolution of the QuikSCAT data is routinely utilized by forecasters at the NOAA/NCEP Ocean Prediction Center, Tropical Prediction Center, and other NOAA weather forecast offices to improve the accuracies of wind warnings in marine forecasts.
Maintenance of a Mountain Valley Cold Pool: A Numerical Study
Authors: Billings Brian J. , Grubišić Vanda , Borys Randolph D. 
Published: August 2006

Abstract
A persistent cold-air pool in the Yampa Valley of northwestern Colorado was simulated with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5). The observed cold-air pool, which was identified by temperature measurements along a line of surface stations ascending the eastern side of the valley, remained in place throughout the day of 10 January 2004. The baseline simulation with horizontal resolution of 1 km, which is close to the resolution of operational regional mesoscale model forecasts, neither matched the strength of the observed cold-air pool nor retained the cold pool throughout the day. Varying the PBL parameterization, increasing the vertical resolution, and increasing the model spinup time did not significantly improve the results. However, the inclusion of snow cover, increased horizontal resolution, and an improved treatment of horizontal diffusion did have a sizable effect on the forecast quality. The snow cover in the baseline simulation was essential for preventing the diurnal heating from eroding the cold pool, but was only sufficient to produce a nearly isothermal temperature structure within the valley, largely because of an increased reflection of solar radiation. The increase of horizontal resolution to 333 and 111 m resulted in a stronger cold-air pool and its retention throughout the day. In addition to improving the resolution of flow features in steep terrain, resulting in, for example, less drainage out of the valley, the increase in horizontal resolution led to a better forecast because of a reduced magnitude of horizontal diffusion calculated along the terrain-following model surfaces. Calculating horizontal diffusion along the constant height levels had a beneficial impact on the quality of the simulations, producing effects similar to those achieved by increasing the horizontal resolution, but at a fraction of the computational cost.
Rainfall Types in the West African Sudanian Zone during the Summer Monsoon 2002
Authors: Fink A. H. , Vincent D. G. , Ermert V. 
Published: August 2006

Abstract
Enhanced surface and upper-air observations from the field campaign of the Integrated Approach to the Efficient Management of Scarce Water Resources in West Africa (IMPETUS) project are used to partition rainfall amounts over the West African Sudanian zone during the 2002 summer monsoon season into several characteristic types and subtypes of precipitating systems. The most prominent rainfall subtype was fast-moving, long-lived, and extensive cloud clusters that often developed far upstream over the central Nigerian highlands in the afternoon hours and arrived at the Upper Ouémé Valley (UOV) after midnight. These organized convective systems (advective OCSs, subtype Ia) accounted for 50% of the total rain amount in the UOV catchment in Benin. Subtypes Ia and IIa (i.e., locally developing OCSs) were found to pass by or organize when a highly sheared environment with deep and dry midtropospheric layers was present over the UOV. These systems were most frequent outside the peak of the monsoon season. The second major type of organized convection, termed mesoscale convective systems (subtypes Ib, IIb, and IIIb) in the present study, contributed 26% to the annual UOV precipitation. They occurred in a less-sheared and moister tropospheric environment mainly around the height of the rainy season. A third distinct class of rainfall events occurred during an unusual synoptic situation in which a cyclonic vortex to the north of the UOV led to deep westerly flow. During these periods, the African easterly jet was lacking. The so-called vortex-type rainfalls (subtypes IIIa, IIIb, and IIIc) contributed about 9% to the annual rainfall totals.
Enhanced Detectability of Added Value in Limited-Area Model Results Separated into Different Spatial Scales
Authors: Feser Frauke 
Published: August 2006

Abstract
Regional climate models (RCMs) are a widely used tool to describe regional-scale climate variability and change. However, the added value provided by such models is not well explored so far, and claims have been made that RCMs have little utility. Here, it is demonstrated that RCMs are indeed returning significant added value. Employing appropriate spatial filters, the scale-dependent skill of a state-of-the-art RCM (with and without nudging of large scales) is examined by comparing its skill with that of the global reanalyses driving the RCM. This skill is measured by pattern correlation coefficients of the global reanalyses or the RCM simulation and, as a reference, of an operational regional weather analysis. For the spatially smooth variable air pressure the RCM improves this aspect of the simulation for the medium scales if the RCM is driven with large-scale constraints, but not for the large scales. For the regionally more structured quantity near-surface temperature the added value is more obvious. The simulation of medium-scale 2-m temperature anomaly fields amounts to an increase of the mean pattern correlation coefficient up to 30%.
Observational Diagnosis and Model Forecast Evaluation of Unforecasted Incipient Precipitation during the 24–25 January 2000 East Coast Cyclone
Authors: Brennan Michael J. , Lackmann Gary M. 
Published: August 2006

Abstract
Previous research has shown that a lower-tropospheric diabatically generated potential vorticity (PV) maximum associated with an area of incipient precipitation (IP) was critical to the moisture transport north of the PV maximum into the Carolinas and Virginia during the 24–25 January 2000 East Coast cyclone. This feature was almost entirely absent in short-term (e.g., 6–12 h) forecasts from the 0000 UTC 24 January 2000 operational runs of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Mesoscale (NAM, formerly Eta) and Global Forecast System (GFS, formerly AVN) models, even though it occurred over land within and downstream of a region of relatively high data density. Observations and model analyses are used to document the forcing for ascent, moisture, and instability (elevated gravitational and/or symmetric) associated with the IP, and the evolution of the IP formation is documented with radar and satellite imagery with the goal of understanding the fundamental nature of this precipitation feature and the models’ inability to predict it. Results show that the IP formed along a zone of lower-tropospheric frontogenesis in a region of strong synoptic-scale forcing for ascent downstream of an approaching upper trough and jet streak. The atmosphere above the frontal inversion was characterized by a mixture of gravitational conditional instability and conditional symmetric instability over a deep layer, and this instability was likely released when air parcels reached saturation as they ascended the frontal surface. The presence of elevated convection is suggested by numerous surface reports of thunder and the cellular nature of radar echoes in the region. Short-term forecasts from the Eta and AVN models failed to capture the magnitude of the frontogenesis, upper forcing, or elevated instability in the region of IP formation. These findings suggest that errors in the initial condition analyses, particularly in the water vapor field, in conjunction with the inability of model physics schemes to generate the precipitation feature, likely played a role in the operational forecast errors related to inland quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) later in the event. A subsequent study will serve to clarify the role of initial conditions and model physics in the representation of the IP by NWP models.
An Observational Study of Vortex Spacing in Island Wake Vortex Streets
Authors: Young George S. , Zawislak Jonathan 
Published: August 2006

Abstract
Vortex streets are a frequent occurrence in stratocumulus-topped flow downwind of mountainous islands. Theoretical studies dating back to von Kármán, supported by laboratory and numerical studies, have yielded similarity theories for the size and spacing of these vortices behind bluff bodies. Despite dynamical differences between such two-dimensional flows and the three-dimensional flow past isolated islands, satellite case studies suggest these geometric similarities may also hold for the atmospheric case. In this study, two of the resulting dimensionless ratios are measured using satellite imagery. One is the aspect ratio between cross-street and along-street spacing of the vortices. The second is the ratio of the cross-street spacing to the crosswind width of the island. A 30-image sample from the Aqua and Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellites is analyzed to obtain these ratios. The resulting set of values for the two dimensionless ratios is tested against the values found in bluff body studies. The aspect ratio is tested against the value of 0.28 resulting from von Kármán’s inviscid theory, and the dimensionless width ratio is tested against the value of 1.2 from Tyler’s laboratory study of flow around a bluff body. It is found that atmospheric vortex streets do indeed follow the geometric similarity theories, but with different values for the two ratios than those predicted by von Kármán and Tyler. The aspect ratio is larger than predicted as is the dimensionless width ratio. Both differences are consistent with the turbulent diffusion of vorticity in the wake of the island. The vortex streets more closely follow inviscid theory close to the island, with vortex expansion taking place a few vortex diameters downwind of the island.
CCL18/PARC stimulates hematopoiesis in long-term bone marrow cultures indirectly through its effect on monocytes
Authors: Wimmer Antonia , Khaldoyanidi Sophia K. , Judex Martin , Serobyan Naira , DiScipio Richard G. , Schraufstatter Ingrid U. 
Published: August 2006

AbstractChemokines play a role in regulating hematopoietic stem cell function, including migration, proliferation, and retention. We investigated the involvement of CCL18 in the regulation of bone marrow hematopoiesis. Treatment of human long-term bone marrow cultures (LTBMCs) with CCL18 resulted in significant stimulation of hematopoiesis, as measured by the total number of hematopoietic cells and their committed progenitors produced in culture. Monocytes/macrophages, whose survival was almost doubled in the presence of CCL18 compared with controls, were the primary cells mediating this effect. Conditioned media from CCL18-treated mature monocytes fostered colony-promoting activity that increased the number of colonies formed by hematopoietic progenitor cells. Gene expression profiling of CCL18-stimulated monocytes demonstrated more than 200 differentially expressed genes, including those regulating apoptosis (caspase-8) and proliferation (IL-6, IL-15, stem cell factor [SCF]). Up-regulation of these cytokines was confirmed on the protein expression level. The contribution of SCF and IL-6 in CCL18-mediated stimulatory activity for hematopoiesis was confirmed by SCF- and IL-6–blocking antibodies that significantly inhibited the colony-promoting activity of CCL18-stimulated conditioned medium. In addition to the effect on monocytes, CCL18 facilitated the formation of the adherent layer in LTBMCs and increased the proliferation of stromal fibroblast-like cells.
Identification, cloning and characterization of a novel 47 kDa murine PKA C subunit homologous to human and bovine Cβ2
Authors: Funderud Ane , Henanger Heidi H , Hafte Tilahun T , Amieux Paul S , Ørstavik Sigurd , Skålhegg Bjørn S 
Published: August 2006

Abstract

Background
Two main genes encoding the catalytic subunits Cα and Cβ of cyclic AMP dependent protein kinase (PKA) have been identified in all vertebrates examined. The murine, bovine and human Cβ genes encode several splice variants, including the splice variant Cβ2. In mouse Cβ2 has a relative molecular mass of 38 kDa and is only expressed in the brain. In human and bovine Cβ2 has a relative molecular mass of 47 kDa and is mainly expressed in lymphoid tissues.

Results
We identified a novel 47 kDa splice variant encoded by the mouse Cβ gene that is highly expressed in lymphoid cells. Cloning, expression, and production of a sequence-specific antiserum and characterization of PKA catalytic subunit activities demonstrated the 47 kDa protein to be a catalytically active murine homologue of human and bovine Cβ2. Based on the present results and the existence of a human brain-specifically expressed Cβ splice variant designated Cβ4 that is identical to the former mouse Cβ2 splice variant, the mouse splice variant has now been renamed mouse Cβ4.

Conclusion
Murine lymphoid tissues express a protein that is a homologue of human and bovine Cβ2. The murine Cβ gene encodes the splice variants Cβ1, Cβ2, Cβ3 and Cβ4, as is the case with the human Cβ gene.
Organization and post-transcriptional processing of focal adhesion kinase gene
Authors: Corsi Jean-Marc , Rouer Evelyne , Girault Jean-Antoine , Enslen Hervé 
Published: August 2006

Abstract

Background
Focal adhesion kinase (FAK) is a non-receptor tyrosine kinase critical for processes ranging from embryo development to cancer progression. Although isoforms with specific molecular and functional properties have been characterized in rodents and chicken, the organization of FAK gene throughout phylogeny and its potential to generate multiple isoforms are not well understood. Here, we study the phylogeny of FAK, the organization of its gene, and its post-transcriptional processing in rodents and human.

Results
A single orthologue of FAK and the related PYK2 was found in non-vertebrate species. Gene duplication probably occurred in deuterostomes after the echinoderma embranchment, leading to the evolution of PYK2 with distinct properties. The amino acid sequence of FAK and PYK2 is conserved in their functional domains but not in their linker regions, with the absence of autophosphorylation site in C. elegans. Comparison of mouse and human FAK genes revealed the existence of multiple combinations of conserved and non-conserved 5'-untranslated exons in FAK transcripts suggesting a complex regulation of their expression. Four alternatively spliced coding exons (13, 14, 16, and 31), previously described in rodents, are highly conserved in vertebrates. Cis-regulatory elements known to regulate alternative splicing were found in conserved alternative exons of FAK or in the flanking introns. In contrast, other reported human variant exons were restricted to Homo sapiens, and, in some cases, other primates. Several of these non-conserved exons may correspond to transposable elements. The inclusion of conserved alternative exons was examined by RT-PCR in mouse and human brain during development. Inclusion of exons 14 and 16 peaked at the end of embryonic life, whereas inclusion of exon 13 increased steadily until adulthood. Study of various tissues showed that inclusion of these exons also occurred, independently from each other, in a tissue-specific fashion.

Conclusion
The alternative coding exons 13, 14, 16, and 31 are highly conserved in vertebrates and their inclusion in mRNA is tightly but independently regulated. These exons may therefore be crucial for FAK function in specific tissues or during development. Conversely pathological disturbance of the expression of FAK and of its isoforms could lead to abnormal cellular regulation.