bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
In search of a warning strategy against exchange‐rate attacks: Forecasting tactics using artificial neural networks
Authors: Andreou A. S. , Zombanakis G. A. , Georgopoulos E. F. , Likothanassis S. D. 
Published: January 2006

“Heart attacks and devaluations are not predictable and, certainly, are never preannounced”. (The usual remark made by government spokesmen shortly after a domestic currency devaluation has taken place.)The contribution that this paper aspires to make is the prediction of an oncoming attack against the domestic currency, something that is expected to increase the possibilities of successful hedging by the authorities. The analysis has focused on the Greek Drachma, which has suffered a series of attacks during the past few years, thus offering a variety of such “shock” incidents accompanied by frequent interventions by the authorities. The prediction exercised here is performed in a discrete dynamics environment, based on the daily fluctuations of the interbank overnight interest rate, using artificial neural networks enhanced by genetic algorithms. The results obtained on the basis of the forecasting performance have been considered most encouraging, in providing a successful prediction of an oncoming attack against the domestic currency.
Biomolecular nonlinear dynamic mechanisms as a foundation for human traits of information processing machine
Authors: Rambaidi Nicholas G. 
Published: January 2006

A pseudo‐biological paradigm in information processing launched by McCulloch and Pitts in the early 1940s has been advanced during the last decades. Different attempts were made based on these developments to design operational information processing devices capable of solving problems of high computational complexity.One of them was the use of nonlinear dynamic mechanisms inherent in information processing by biochemical, biomolecular, and simple biological entities. Chemical reaction–diffusion media proved to be effective tools for the implementation of these capabilities.Basic features of these information processing means and modeling of their information
processing capabilities are discussed in this paper. Belousov–Zhabotinsky type reaction–diffusion media were used to simulate image processing operations and finding paths in a labyrinth.
Accelerated non‐linear destruction of the earth′s crust
Authors: Artyushkov E. V. 
Published: January 2006

The upper part of the Earth—the lithospheric layer, ∼100 km thick, is rigid. Segments of this spherical shell–lithospheric plates are drifting over a ductile asthenosphere. On the continents, the lithosphere includes the Earth′s crust, ∼40 km thick, which is underlain by peridotitic rocks of the mantle. In most areas, at depths ∼20–40 km the continental crust is composed of basalts with density ∼2900kg m−3. At temperature and pressure typical for this depth, basalts are metastable and should transform into another assemblage of minerals which
corresponds to garnet granulites and eclogites with higher densities 3300–3600 kg m−3. The rate of this transformation is extremely low in dry rocks, and the associated contraction of basalts evolves during the time ≥108 a. To restore the Archimede′s equilibrium, the crust subsides with a formation of sedimentary basins, up to 10–15 km deep.Volumes of hot mantle with a water‐containing fluid emerge sometimes from a deep mantle to the base of the lithosphere. Fluids infiltrate into the crust through the mantle part of the lithosphere. They catalyze the reaction in the lower crust which results in rock contraction with a formation of deep water basins at the surface during ∼106 a. The major hydrocarbon
basins of the world were formed in this way. Infiltration of fluids strongly reduces the viscosity of the lithosphere, which is evidenced by narrow‐wavelength deformations of this layer. At times of softening of the mantle part of the lithosphere, it becomes convectively replaced by a
hotter and lighter asthenosphere. This process has resulted in the formation of many mountain ranges and high plateaus during the last several millions of years. Softening of the whole lithospheric layer which is rigid under normal conditions allows its strong compressive and
tensile deformations. At the epochs of compression, a large portion of dense eclogites that were formed from basalts in the lower crust sink deeply into the mantle. In some cases they carry down lighter blocks of granites and sedimentary rocks of the upper crust which delaminate from eclogitic blocks and emerge back to the crust. Such blocks of upper crustal rocks include diamonds and other minerals which were formed at a depth of 100–150 km.
Stimulus, expectations, desires and response strategies:The building blocks of nonlinear interaction dynamics
Authors: Dendrinos Dimitrios S. 
Published: January 2006

Stimulus and response functions, as the fundamental blocks of nonlinear interaction dynamics, are analyzed and modeled here, under a variety of interaction strategies. The backbone of the suggested model is a simple iterative dynamical formulation: the magnitude of a signal sent at present is a function of a relevant signal sent—as well as of a signal received—in the past; in turn, a signal received at present is a function of a signal received—as well as of a signal sent—in the past; namely,

where Ss/r is the size of a signal sent/received, and n
is a point in time.Expectations and desires by senders and receivers of signals are introduced in the analysis. As a result, a basic classification of individuals emerges, that of “dreamers” and “cynics.” Three fundamental response strategies are identified, all plays on a theoretically Newtonian action–reaction system. A pair of individual, as well as community, interaction end‐states are the focus of the analysis here; their stability properties, under a tit‐for‐tat response strategy, are studied and their likelihood to occur is considered.
Intergenerational equity and dynamic duality principles
Authors: Uzawa Hirofumi 
Published: January 2006

The concept of intergenerational equity concerning intertemporal paths of consumption and capital accumulation is introduced and the analysis of the dynamic processes of capital accumulation and changes in environmental quality that are intergenerationally equitable is developed. The analysis is based upon the dynamic duality principles, as originally developed by Koopmans and Uzawa, and later extended to the case involving environmental quality.A time‐path of consumption and capital accumulation is defined intergenerationally equitable when it is dynamically efficient and, at the same time, the imputed price of each kind of capital, either private capital, or social overhead capital, is identical over time. The existence of an intergenerationally equitable time‐path of consumption and capital accumulation is guaranteed when the processes of various kind of capital are subject to the Penrose effect, exhibiting the law of diminishing marginal rates of investment capital accumulation.
Metaphors and social science
Authors: Macpherson Eric D. 
Published: January 2006

The social sciences have a considerable history of attempts to apply models and theories from the physical sciences. All such attempts have failed, primarily because social scientists have commonly not distinguished between applications and possibly useful metaphors.Attempts to apply non‐linear mathematics to social concerns will similarly fail. There are now no non‐trivial applications, and there are unlikely ever to be.But the phenomenon of reifying models and theories from elsewhere has long standing status in the social sciences, and DDNS can play an important role in monitoring those attempts.
Population growth and environment as a self‐organizing system
Authors: Allen Peter M. 
Published: January 2006

Over recent years a new understanding of complex systems, and their dynamics and evolution has emerged, and these have been shown to provide a new basis for models of the changing patterns of population and economic activities that shape the landscape. In this paper we
make clear the necessarily partial description that any particular model must provide, and show the importance of a multidisciplinary, holistic understanding, linking any particular model to the co‐evolution of its environment. In addition, we show how evolutionary processes link the microscopic level of molecules through successive scales of structure and organization ultimately to the biosphere itself, to issues of climatic change, of biomes at the continental scale and atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. Some very recent results will be shown which demonstrate that the world climate has already been modified
considerably by human activities, particularly agriculture, underlining the vital need to understand better the on‐going interaction between human activities and the biosphere.Models will be described which can link the co‐evolution of these multiple scales of organization and change, and which can be used to help to explore the consequences of different possible policies, and in this way to provide information concerning the agendas, risks and issues to be addressed in the 21st Century, as well as pointing to possible policies
that may be appropriate. Already models exist which can explore the dynamics of urban development, the patterns of land‐use, and the possible environmental impacts of these in the context of a still fast growing population. Such models provide a framework within which questions such as those concerning energy consumption, transportation, social conditions can be explored and agendas and priorities set. Clearly, advances in information and telecommunications technologies present great opportunities for increasing accessibilities without necessarily increasing mobility or energy consumption, and models which can
help in assessing their potential impact on development and in their successful implementation are of great value.Complex system models can also be of great use in exploring the long term implications of the present, increasing, reliance on market systems and economic signals in the allocation of resources and patterns of investment. In particular, complex systems models can explore the effects of the precise regulatory framework within which a market operates, and as a result may be able to suggest ways in which long term, sustainable development can be achieved despite the present short term horizons of the players in market dynamics. In addition, of course, they can illuminate and inform actors about the longer term, and perhaps actually lengthen the time horizon considered by market participants. In short, the insights arising from complex systems models could, hopefully, play a role in expanding the understanding, the conceptual framework and the ethical basis of decision making in the 21st Century.
From fast to slow processes in the evolution of urban and regional settlement structures
Authors: Weidlich Wolfgang 
Published: January 2006

Complex systems consist of many intertwined organizational levels starting from micro‐structures and ending with macrostructures. Their evolution takes place on different time scales: Micropatterns exhibit a fast dynamics whereas macropatterns develop slowly. Urban and regional science can make use of this fact by constructing a hierarchy of models on different spatio‐temporal scales.Based on this understanding two models are presented: One for the relatively fast urban evolution on the microscale and one for the relatively slow regional evolution on the macroscale.The micromodel considers the urban structure as a system of sites on which different kinds of buildings (dwellings, schools, stores, service‐stations, factories … ) can be erected. The step by step evolution of the city configuration is treated as a stochastic process guided by desirability considerations. The formalization of this concept leads to equations for the evolution of the urban city configuration. Numerical simulations illustrate this urban “microdynamics”.The macromodel treats the settlement formation in a region on a more global scale. The evolution of the density of economically active populations who produce and consume goods is considered. The driving force of density changes is the spatial difference of incomes motivating the individuals to migrate to locations of optimal income. This nonlinear process leads to the self‐organization of spatially heterogeneous population distributions forming the settlements. Their micro‐structure can thereupon be treated by the micromodel.
Numerical simulations in astrophysics:Supernovae explosions, magnetorotational model and neutrino emission
Authors: Bisnovatyi-Kogan G. S. 
Published: January 2006

Theories of stellar evolution and stellar explosion are based on results of numerical simulations and even qualitative results are not available to get analytically. Supernovae are the last stage in the evolution of massive stars, following the onset of instability, collapse and formation of a neutron star. Formation of a neutron star is accompanied by a huge amount of energy, approximately 20% of the rest mass energy of the star, but almost all this energy is released in the form of weakly interacting and hardly registrated neutrino. About 0.1% of the released neutrino energy would be enough for producing a supernovae explosion, but even transformation of such a small part of the neutrino energy into the kinetic energy of matter meets serious problems. Two variants are investigated for obtaining explosion. The first one is based on development of convective instability, and more effective heating of the outer layers by a neutrino flux.The second model is based on transformation of a rotational energy of a rapidly rotating neutron star with its envelope into the energy of explosion due to action of a magnetic field as a
transformation mechanism. Calculations in this model in 1‐ and 2‐dimensions give a stable value of transformation of the rotational energy into the energy of explosion on the level of few percents. This occurrance to be enough for explanation of the energy release in supernova explosion. The last model gives a direct demonstration of nonlinear interaction between hydrodynamical and hydromagnetic systems. At first a field is amplified by differential rotation, then
this enhanced field leads to transformation of the rotational energy into the energy of explosion.
Inefficient equilibria in transition economy
Authors: Guriev Sergei , Pospelov Igor 
Published: January 2006

The paper studies a general equilibrium in an economy where all market participants face a bid‐ask spread. The spread may be caused by indirect business taxes, middlemen rent‐seeking, delays in payments or liquidity constraints or price uncertainty. Wherever it comes from the spread causes inefficiency of the market equilibrium. We discuss some institutions
that can decrease the inefficiency. One is second currency (barter exchange) in the inter‐firm transactions. It is shown that the general equilibrium in an economy with second currency is effective though is still different from Arrow–Debreu equilibrium. Another solution can be introduction of mutual trade credit. In the economy with trade credit there are multiple
equilibria that are more efficient than original bid‐ask spread but still not as efficient as Arrow–Debreu one, too. The implications for firms′ integration and applicability to Russian economy are discussed.The paper generalizes some results obtained of research work that has been done in the Department of Mathematical Modeling of Economic Systems of Computing Center, Russian Academy of Science under Academician Petrov over last few years (Petrov et al., 1996, essays on Mathematical Modelling of Economy: Energoatomizdat.) We have
successfully used some models of inefficient equilibrium in several applied projects.
The Conflict over Cicero's House: An Analysis of the Ritual Element in De domo sua
Authors: Lisdorf Anders 
Published: December 2005

AbstractAccording to the Romans themselves ritual was at the heart of their culture. Strangely, this centrality of ritual has not been matched by a corresponding sensitivity to how ritual was to be interpreted. Ritual has most often been viewed as an empty formalism devoid of any true belief. It is argued in this article that this view of ritual is an ethnocentric construct stemming from a Christian conception of belief, which does not adequately account for the peculiarities of ritual based religions. Taking the seemingly obscure and little studied case of the conflict over Cicero's house as a case, it is argued that E. Thomas Lawson's and Robert N. McCauley's ritual theory might help to overcome this misconception of ritual. This enables us to see how Cicero explicates implicit beliefs entailed by the ritual actions. Ultimately the evidence seems to support the reverse interpretation: that ritual was taken very seriously.
Effects of population structure on genetic association studies
Authors: Xu Hongyan , Shete Sanjay 
Published: December 2005

Abstract
Population-based case-control association is a promising approach for unravelling the genetic basis of complex diseases. One potential problem of this approach is the presence of population structure in the samples. Using the Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism (COGA) single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) datasets, we addressed three questions: How can the degree of population structure be quantified, and how does the population structure affect association studies? How accurate and efficient is the genomic control method in correcting for population structure? The amount of population structure in the COGA SNP data was found to inflate the p-value in association tests. Genomic control was found to be effective only when the appropriate number of markers was used in the control group in order to correctly calibrate the test. The approach presented in this paper could be used to select the appropriate number of markers for use in the genomic control method of correcting population structure.
A new family-based association test via a least-squares method
Authors: Yang Song , Joo Jungnam , Feng Ziding , Lin Jing-Ping 
Published: December 2005

Abstract
To test the association between a dichotomous phenotype and genetic marker based on family data, we propose a least-squares method using the vector of phenotypes and their cross products within each family. This new approach allows covariate adjustment and is numerically much simpler to implement compared to likelihood- based methods. The new approach is asymptotically equivalent to the generalized estimating equation approach with a diagonal working covariance matrix, thus avoiding some difficulties with the working covariance matrix reported previously in the literature. When applied to the data from Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism, this new method shows a significant association between the marker rs1037475 and alcoholism.
A power study of bivariate LOD score analysis of a complex trait and fear/discomfort with strangers
Authors: Ji Fei , Lee Dayoung , Mendell Nancy Role 
Published: December 2005

Abstract
Complex diseases are often reported along with disease-related traits (DRT). Sometimes investigators consider both disease and DRT phenotypes separately and sometimes they consider individuals as affected if they have either the disease or the DRT, or both. We propose instead to consider the joint distribution of the disease and the DRT and do a linkage analysis assuming a pleiotropic model. We evaluated our results through analysis of the simulated datasets provided by Genetic Analysis Workshop 14. We first conducted univariate linkage analysis of the simulated disease, Kofendrerd Personality Disorder and one of its simulated associated traits, phenotype b (fear/discomfort with strangers). Subsequently, we considered the bivariate phenotype, which combined the information on Kofendrerd Personality Disorder and fear/discomfort with strangers. We developed a program to perform bivariate linkage analysis using an extension to the Elston-Stewart peeling method of likelihood calculation. Using this program we considered the microsatellites within 30 cM of the gene pleiotropic for this simulated disease and DRT. Based on 100 simulations of 300 families we observed excellent power to detect linkage within 10 cM of the disease locus using the DRT and the bivariate trait.
Genes, age, and alcoholism: analysis of GAW14 data
Authors: Apprey Victor , Afful Joseph , Harrell Jules P , Taylor Robert E , Bonney George E 
Published: December 2005

Abstract
A genetic analysis of age of onset of alcoholism was performed on the Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism data released for Genetic Analysis Workshop 14. Our study illustrates an application of the log-normal age of onset model in our software Genetic Epidemiology Models (GEMs). The phenotype ALDX1 of alcoholism was studied. The analysis strategy was to first find the markers of the Affymetrix SNP dataset with significant association with age of onset, and then to perform linkage analysis on them. ALDX1 revealed strong evidence of linkage for marker tsc0041591 on chromosome 2 and suggestive linkage for marker tsc0894042 on chromosome 3. The largest separation in mean ages of onset of ALDX1 was 19.76 and 24.41 between male smokers who are carriers of the risk allele of tsc0041591 and the non-carriers, respectively. Hence, male smokers who are carriers of marker tsc0041591 on chromosome 2 have an average onset of ALDX1 almost 5 years earlier than non-carriers.
A genome-wide linkage and association study using COGA data
Authors: Zhu Xiaofeng , Cooper Richard , Kan Donghui , Cao Guichan , Wu Xiaodong 
Published: December 2005

Abstract

Background
Genome-wide association will soon be available to use as an adjunct to traditional linkage analysis. We studied alcoholism in 119 families collected by the Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism and made available in Genetic Analysis Workshop 14, using genome-wide linkage and association analyses.

Methods
Genome-wide linkage analysis was first performed using microsatellite markers and a region with the strongest linkage evidence was further analyzed using single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Family based genome-wide association test was also conducted using the SNPs.

Results
Nonparametric linkage analysis revealed weak linkage evidence on chromosome 7, and association analysis identified SNP tsc0515272 on chromosome 3 as significantly associated with alcoholism.

Conclusion
Linkage analysis may require large sample sizes and high quality genotyping and marker maps to adequately improve power, while association analysis could hold more promise in efforts to identify variants responsible for complex traits.