bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Fiscalité superposée et externalités fiscales verticales : faut-il reconsidérer le débat entre concurrence et coopération fiscales?
Authors: Madiès Thierry 
Published: July 2012

L’objet de cet article est de faire le point sur une question longtemps négligée par les économistes, même si elle est au centre du débat politique chaque fois qu’il s’agit de réformer la fiscalité territoriale : c'est la question de l’empilement des taux de prélèvement quand plusieurs échelons de collectivités publiques taxent une même base imposable. En effet, le comportement non coopératif de gouvernements appartenant à un niveau administratif différent et qui partagent une même matière imposable est à l’origine d’externalités fiscales verticales négatives de recettes fiscales. Celles-ci sont responsables, pour certains, de la dérive à la hausse des taux de prélèvement. Dans ces conditions, les externalités entre collectivités publiques sont non seulement horizontales, comme l’a montré l’importante littérature sur la concurrence fiscale entre collectivités locales, mais aussi verticales quand il y a partage d’une même matière imposable par des collectivités publiques appartenant à un échelon de gouvernement différent. La prise en compte de ces deux types d’externalités permet alors de reconsidérer le débat portant sur les vertus respectives de la concurrence et de la consolidation (coopération) fiscale et sur le niveau optimal auquel doivent être entreprises les politiques de redistribution dans une économie fédérale.
La méthodologie des modèles intersectoriels rectangulaires à coefficients modifiables : rétrospective et perspective
Authors: Matuszewski T. 
Published: July 2012

The best known and probably the most frequently used of the models of this class is undoubtedly the Input-Output model of the Québec economy built, continuously updated and operated by the Bureau de la Statistique du Québec. However, the methodology, adapted and sometimes extended has found a number of other, in particular micro-economic applications.
Evidently, the basic inspiration of the methodology in question is to be found in the ideas put forward by Professor Leontief. Certain researches done in France, especially in the late 1950's, but also since then, have exerted considerable influence.
Although these models trace their origins to activity analysis in the sense that they start from the principle that to understand a complex system it is preferable to study in detail its inner structures and workings rather than the evolution over time of the great aggregates characterising the overall behaviour.
By abandoning the postulates of proportionality and of one-to-one correspondence between "products" and "industries", the models discussed here openly give up any pretence to mathematical elegance including the existence of "general solutions" of the kind of those associated with the Leontief inverses. They just become in effect simulation models and at the same time much more convenient and flexible frameworks for the collection, organization and the handling of data, data which are much closer to basic data than the highly processed data incorporated in the traditional Input-Output models. They are also much more easier to update and to incorporate "non-statistical" data.
Although more powerful, in many respects, than the traditional models, they share with them at least two basic weaknesses which, significantly, are not unrelated to each other. They are incapable of handling in a really comprehensive and systematic manner the confrontation of supply and of demand influences and they give no more than a most cursory treatment to the whole range of financial phenomena and a fortiori to the influence of these phenomena on the "real" ones. It is clear that the future work on this class of models will have to put heavy emphasis on trying to reduce these two weaknesses.
L’emploi de modèles intersectoriels rectangulaires à coefficients modifiables pour simuler la propagation de la demande pour les fins de la planification du développement industriel
Authors: Bergeron I. , Matuszewski T. 
Published: July 2012

This article presents a methodology which draws heavily on the philosophy of the Input-Output models and having been made completely operational has already been used on three occasions in two countries for the purposes of regional development of construction materials industries.
This methodology, or more precisely the strictly formalized part of it is an extension of that of rectangular Input-Output models with modifiable coefficients. Thus, not surprisingly, it resembles fairly closely the approach by simulation, although the proposed model contains some simple optimizing sub-models. While obviously normative, these sub-models play a descriptive rôle in the model as a whole.
It is to be noted that the approach presented here can be applied to only one sector of the economy at a time. What is more, although capable of various extensions it will never be more than an auxiliary instrument destined to be used jointly with other analysis and planning instruments.
It is vital for any valid regional analysis not to restrict its investigations exclusively to what goes on in the region directly concerned. Even if the objective of the analysis is limited to a single region, one must take into account the interrelations between regions within the national economy and with foreign economies: important feedbacks affecting the region concerned may on occasion travel far beyond its limits before returning. The type of a model presented here, thanks to a great number of interrelations of which it can systematically keep track may turn out to be particularly useful here.
Conjuguer l’histoire
Authors: Morel Bernard 
Published: July 2012

Futurology often looks like a new undertaking, the object of which would be to give people "the fantastic and marvellous" that every one needs: make one dream of tomorrow. But if the future is an alibi, it must also be a tool for mobilization. Prospective gives then to itself a less emphatic purpose: it is a new way of reading past and present (that is to say to understand history) as to define the prospects which make the future. The future is not determined in a mecanic way. It is the resultant and the expression of different projects (projects of economical groups and classes), which meet, clash inside a complex economic and social formation.
In another way, to read history goes with the idea the future is to be made, which only results of classes, struggle, social and international power-relations.
The method must unite on one side a way of production trends analysis (abstract time), and a social formation evolution (concrete time). It is a way of thinking which obviously can use traditional technics.
Modèles de simulation et de prévision sur une grande échelle
Authors: Cole Sam 
Published: July 2012

Since the publication three years ago of the 'global' models of World Dynamics and The Limits of Growth, there has been revived interest in the possibilities of using large scale computer models for the forecasting of long term futures. Although these particular models received considerable criticism, on technical and ideological grounds, the idea that such models may ultimately be useful for seeking out desirable futures and anticipating the dangers in achieving them remains attractive and a number of new global modelling projects are now underway at various institutions around the world.
In general these large models have met with mixed success and, at a time when the use of computer models seems likely to become a more widespread feature of our society, it is instructive to examine the reasons why. In particular, it is important to examine the limitations of models proposed for use in the public policy domain.
Note historique sur les effets externes
Authors: Laffont Jean-Jacques 
Published: July 2012

This historical note describes from Sidgwick on the evolution of the concepts related to the interdependencies of economic agents outside markets. In a first section, we show how the concept of externality introduced by some precursors had later to reemerge from the confuse discussion of "empty boxes". The second sector clarifies the distinction between two avenues of research, the first one associated with pecuniary externalities, the other one associated with technological externalities. Coase's criticisms of Pigouvian policy are developed in section 3. In a last section we gather the main results obtained recently by economic theory in this field. In particular we discuss the difficulties of the creation of artificial markets, the second best approaches often needed in a Pigouvian policy, results of game theory in models with externalities, planning with externalities.
Une appréciation critique du traitement des dépenses de consommation dans le modèle CANDIDE 1.1
Authors: Carré Ronald 
Published: July 2012

This paper begins by discussing what ought to be the approach to the problem of forecasting in the medium term. The author emphasizes the advantages of a very detailed breakdown of sectors. He then considers certain econometric problems which arise when forecasting consumption in the medium term. He contrasts the formulation of the consumer sector in CANDIDE with that of two other types of model and compares the results of each.
The author proposes an alternative way of treating consumption in CANDIDE which would take into account different categories of households. Finally, he discusses how to resolve problems of organization of the data, of modelling, and of estimation which may arise when using such an approach.
Le secteur résidentiel (bloc 3) de CANDIDE
Authors: Achour Dominique 
Published: July 2012

In the first part, a synoptic review of the residential sectors in the balkanizing field of macro-econometric models is made à la M. Nerlove. The structural characteristics of most canadian and some american models are compared.
Then, a detailed description of two versions (1.0 and 1.1) of the residential sector of CANDIDE is given and a non parametric evaluation presented. Some comparative parametric discussions are also introduced.
The main weakness are stressed and some improvements are suggested.
The residential sector of CANDIDE is generally adequately specified generating appropriate parameters and is relatively accurate in its medium term projections. Nevertheless, the model can be of little value as a policy instrument since it is not regionalized (provincialized) and does not include policy variables in a sufficiently explicit manner.
À propos des investissements fixes des entreprises du modèle CANDIDE
Authors: Gaudet Gérard , Rouzier Philippe 
Published: July 2012

The purpose of this paper is to comment on the investment equations of the CANDIDE model. The formulation of these equations is based on Jorgenson's theory of investment which is frequently used as a basis for investment expenditures analysis.
In the first two sections the authors endeavour to situate Jorgenson's model with respect to other approaches to investment theory. The last two sections contain, first, an evaluation of the way the Jorgenson's model has been adapted and, secondly, an evaluation of the problem of estimation and stability of the investment model.
CANDIDE et la monnaie
Authors: Aubry Jean-Pierre , Duguay Pierre 
Published: July 2012

In this paper we deal with the financial sector of CANDIDE 1.1. We are concerned with the determination of the short-term interest rate, the term structure equations, and the channels through which monetary policy influences the real sector.
The short-term rate is determined by a straightforward application of Keynesian liquidity preference theory. A serious problem arises from the directly estimated reduced form equation, which implies that the demand for high powered money, but not the demand for actual deposits, is a stable function of income and interest rates. The structural equations imply the opposite.
In the term structure equations, allowance is made for the smaller variance of the long-term rates, but insufficient explanation is given for their sharper upward trend. This leads to an overstatement of the significance of the U.S. long-term rate that must perform the explanatory role. Moreover a strong structural hierarchy, by which the long Canada rate wags the industrial rate, is imposed without prior testing.
In CANDIDE two channels of monetary influence are recognized: the costs of capital and the availability of credit. They affect the business fixed investment and housing sectors. The potential of the personal consumption sector is not recognized, the wealth and real balance effects are bypassed, the credit availability proxy is incorrect, the interest rate used in the real sector is nominal rather than real, and the specification of the housing sector is dubious.
L’offre de travail dans le modèle CANDIDE : un commentaire
Authors: Fortin Bernard , Gautrin Jean-François 
Published: July 2012

The paper is a brief critical evaluation of the treatment of the "supply of labour" in the CANDIDE model. The authors note that the "supply of labour block" does not occur to have retained much of the effort of the CANDIDE developing team. With regards to the specification of the equation of supply of labour, no attempts have been made to integrate new developments in labour economics (a better treatment of the secondary workers supply of labour, a Fisherian utility maximising approach). We note certain econometric difficulties which have not been overcome: The limited dependant variable problem, the lag structure problem…
Finally, though it is encouraging to see attempts in macro-economic models to integrate explicitly a labour demand and supply block with a certain disagregation, important economic problems in the labour market can be dealt only with much more flexible and disagregated models than CANDIDE.
La prévision de l’emploi dans le modèle de l’IRIC
Authors: Rabeau Yves 
Published: July 2012

Final demand determines output in commercial non agricultural industries (Q). Employment is linked to Q by a distributed lag mechanism. In turn employment has an impact on other parts of model. In particular employment appears as a determinant of the labour supply and of the distribution of income. The latter is closely related to the structure of final demand. Hence, employment is a key-variable when one uses the model to make a forecasting exercise.
Some of the principles behind the specification and estimation of the model are discussed. For example, for forecasting purposes one must limit the size of the model. Although the specification of each equation is derived from the body of accepted macro-economic theory, the limited size of the model and the necessity to obtain data at the time a forecast is made impose some constraint on the specification of the equations.
In the short run, actual employment is not immediately adjusted to the level of desired employment, i.e., employment level that could minimize production costs. The quarterly changes in employment are then made proportional to the gap between desired and actual employment. Desired employment is obtained by using an inverse production function. However, the adjustment mechanism is not stable over the cycle. Various proxy variables could be used to unbody that phenomenon into the equation. The ratio of actual to potential output and the relative change in the gap between actual and potential output are combined to make an indicator of the degree of slackness or tension in the economy over the cycle. This indicator is introduced into the final specification of the equation. The equation estimated is consistent with economic theory and gives excellent forecasting results.
However the severe recession of 1974 was accompanied by an exceptional drop in productivity that could be entirely captured by the equation and some adjustments were needed to forecast employment for that particular period.
Un modèle mensuel du secteur financier au Canada
Authors: Masson Paul , Clinton Kevin 
Published: July 2012

In this article we describe preliminary estimates of a model of the Canadian financial system. At the present time, the model explains the behaviour of the authorities, the chartered banks, the public, and the trust and mortgage loan companies. The variables explained include monetary aggregates, several interest rates, and the major assets of the chartered banks and of the trust and mortgage loan companies.
The model differs from existing Canadian models in that we use monthly data rather than quarterly or annual data. We think the shorter observation period permits the econometric estimates to capture the dynamic adjustment processes more accurately. In particular, the mean lags implied by our equations tend to be considerably shorter than those in existing models. Another difference with conventional models is the larger influence given to asset and liability management of the chartered banks in the determination of short-term interest rates.
The model is intended primarily for forecasting, and results are presented which indicate its usefulness in that regard.
Sélection des méthodes de cueillette de l’information dans la recherche d’emploi : une analyse empirique
Authors: Rondeau Claude , Guérin Gilles 
Published: July 2012

Assuming that differences in the cost of using various job search methods are negligible, the authors suggest that the job searcher makes use of specific combinations of complementary methods, and that the composition of these combinations reflects relevant personal characteristics of the job searcher (the structure of labour supply) and the searcher's perception of the characteristics of vacancies (the structure of labor demand). This hypothesis is analysed with the help of data collected by a questionnaire mailed to 1100 blue- and white-collar workers laid off from a Montreal aeronautical firm from January 1970 to March 1971. Components analysis is used to identify four combinations of job-search methods: 1) ex-employer, trade union or employees' association, special placement service (FD1); 2) private agencies, newspaper advertisements, manpower centres (FD2); 3) parents or friends, manpower centres, newspaper advertisements (FD3); personal initiatives (FD4). An analysis of these results suggests two new concepts: standard methods, i.e. those widely and habitually used by job searchers in general; supplementary methods, i.e. those used when standard methods fail to provide what the job searcher considers a satisfactory chance of getting a job. Combination FDI is interpreted as one of supplementary methods.
The second part of the article relates 64 variables, reduced to 21 factors representing various characteristics of job searchers (personal, occupational, financial, labour market behavior), to the four combinations of search methods, in an attempt to explain part of the method selection process. It is found that users of FD2 are relatively qualified, English-speaking, mobile and interested in training, and are likely to have found a job. Users of FD3 are characterized by their youth and their flexibility in terms of jobs and mobility. FD1, by contrast, appears to have been used by older workers with family responsibilities, who are likely to have remained continually unemployed after lay-off. This is seen as supporting the interpretation of FD1 as a combination of supplementary methods. Finally, the results indicate that the difference in behaviour between white- and blue-collar workers may not be as clear-out as is suggested in the literature; the demarcation appears to rest on the level of skill in either group, rather than on the collar-status itself.
It is concluded that the data analysed lend some support to the hypothesis formulated. Combinations of search methods detected by components analysis do appear to be related to identifiable categories of job searchers. The skill level is seen as a particularly important determinant of the selection process. Moreover, it is suggested that the concept of supplementary methods is sufficiently sustained by the data to warrant further study.
Le contrôle des prix et des revenus au Canada
Authors: Lipsey Richard G. 
Published: July 2012

This paper is a summary of the Legal Factum submitted by the Canadian Labor Congress to the Supreme Court of Canada. It intends to demonstrate the irrelevance of the Anti-Inflationnary Act of October 1975. Three main questions are dealt with.
First, was there an economic crisis in October 1975? Analysing various sets of data, the paper concludes that, by no stretch of imagination, could October 1975 be called an economic crisis. Second, was there a policy crisis in the sense that traditional methods had been tried and failed? It establishes here that no serious attempt had been made to contain inflation by traditional fiscal and monetary tools by October 1975. Third, what results can be expected from income policies? This part gives a summary of the voluminous evidence for the U.K. and the U.S., and concludes that the evidence of other incomes policies is that their effects on slowing the rate of inflation are small and often transitory.
Prix du pétrole et degré de stabilité de l’OPEP
Authors: Ayoub Antoine 
Published: July 2012

The stability of OPEC may be defined as the upholding of a high level of cohesion between the members of this organisation, in order to secure for the whole a certain level of bargaining power that everyone would think to be acceptable at a given time and in a given context. This level of cohesion is mainly estimated by the common will of members to apply rigorously a common strategy regarding the price-quantity of crude petroleum. In the long run, such a strategy would call for a common production plan in order to determine not only the total level of annual production, but also the quotas of each country, the price level and the rate of development of the capacity of production.
The aim of this paper is to contribute to the bringing out of a problematic regarding such a production plan as a whole. The main topics are: (1) the necessity of OPEC, (2) the price determination of petroleum, (3) the question of the instability of a coalition. The analysis accounts for the fact that the petroleum sector produces a non-renewable resource, on the one hand, and for the environment and international constraints that the member countries of OPEC have to face in their development process, on the other hand.