bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Herd on the Street: Informational Inefficiencies in a Market with Short‐Term Speculation
Authors: FROOT KENNETH A. , SCHARFSTEIN DAVID S. , STEIN JEREMY C. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTStandard models of informed speculation suggest that traders try to learn information that others do not have. This result implicitly relies on the assumption that speculators have long horizons, i.e., can hold the asset forever. By contrast, we show that if speculators have short horizons, they may herd on the same information, trying to learn what other informed traders also know. There can be multiple herding equilibria, and herding speculators may even choose to study information that is completely unrelated to fundamentals.
Interest Rate Swaps and Corporate Financing Choices
Authors: TITMAN SHERIDAN 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis paper describes the firm's decision to borrow short‐term versus long‐term and shows how the introduction of interest rate swaps affects this choice. The model shows that in the absence of a swap market, interest rate uncertainty can lead firms to substitute long‐term for short‐term financing. However, when swaps exist, there is a tendency for firms that expect their credit quality to improve to borrow short‐term and use swaps to hedge interest rate risk. The model suggests that, while the demand for fixed for floating swaps is enhanced, the demand for floating for fixed swaps is reduced by the presence of asymmetric information.
Underwriter Compensation and Corporate Monitoring
Authors: HANSEN ROBERT S. , TORREGROSA PAUL 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTStudies suggest that underwriting syndicates provide marketing services and certify the fairness of offer prices. We argue that syndicate lead banks also monitor manager effort, increasing the value of capital‐raising companies. A given level of monitoring is associated with a given level of intrinsic value, so there is a “schedule” of certifiable offer prices, depending on the level of monitoring. Monitoring, marketing, and certification are, therefore, all legitimate syndicate functions. New evidence supporting the conclusion that syndicates provide corporate monitoring is presented.
Stock Returns, Real Activity, and the Trust Question
Authors: BITTLINGMAYER GEORGE 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTPeriodic antitrust attacks on corporations may have influenced stock prices. For the period 1904 to 1944, each antitrust case filed is associated with a 0.5 to 1.9 percent drop of the Dow, and each unexpected case with even larger drops. Other aspects of antitrust besides actual filings may help account for other movements, in particular the 1929 Crash. Historical evidence bears on the question of whether antitrust is exogenous and also links antitrust and the “corporation problem.” These results illustrate the sorts of real factors aside from changes in concurrent output that may account for stock price volatility.
Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns
Authors: BROCK WILLIAM , LAKONISHOK JOSEF , LeBARON BLAKE 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis paper tests two of the simplest and most popular trading rules—moving average and trading range break—by utilizing the Dow Jones Index from 1897 to 1986. Standard statistical analysis is extended through the use of bootstrap techniques. Overall, our results provide strong support for the technical strategies. The returns obtained from these strategies are not consistent with four popular null models: the random walk, the AR(1), the GARCH‐M, and the Exponential GARCH. Buy signals consistently generate higher returns than sell signals, and further, the returns following buy signals are less volatile than returns following sell signals, and further, the returns following buy signals are less volatile than returns following sell signals. Moreover, returns following sell signals are negative, which is not easily explained by any of the currently existing equilibrium models.
Trading Halts and Market Activity: An Analysis of Volume at the Open and the Close
Authors: GERETY MASON S. , MULHERIN J. HAROLD 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis paper analyzes how the daily opening and closing of financial markets affect trading volume. We model the desire to trade at the beginning and end of the day as a function of overnight return volatility. NYSE data from 1933–88 indicate that closing volume is positively related to expected overnight volatility, while volume at the open is positively related to both expected and unexpected volatility from the previous night. We interpret the symmetric response of trading at the open and the close to expected volatility as being due to investor heterogeneities in the ability to bear risk when the market is closed. This desire of investors to trade prior to market closings indicates a cost of mandating marketwide circuit breakers.
When Will Mean‐Variance Efficient Portfolios Be Well Diversified?
Authors: GREEN RICHARD C. , HOLLIFIELD BURTON 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTWe characterize the conditions under which efficient portfolios put small weights on individual assets. These conditions bound mean returns with measures of average absolute covariability between assets. The bounds clarify the relationship between linear asset pricing models and well‐diversified efficient portfolios. We argue that the extreme weightings in sample efficient portfolios are due to the dominance of a single factor in equity returns. This makes it easy to diversify on subsets to reduce residual risk, while weighting the subsets to reduce factor risk simultaneously. The latter involves taking extreme positions. This behavior seems unlikely to be attributable to sampling error.
Measuring the Agency Cost of Debt
Authors: MELLO ANTONIO S. , PARSONS JOHN E. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTWe adapt a contingent claims model of the firm to reflect the incentive effects of the capital structure and thereby to measure the agency costs of debt. An underlying model of the firm and the stochastic features of its product market are analyzed and an optimal operating policy is chosen. We identify the change in operating policy created by leverage and value this change. The model determines the value of the firm and its associated liabilities incorporating the agency consequences of debt.
Option Valuation with Systematic Stochastic Volatility
Authors: AMIN KAUSHIK I. , NG VICTOR K. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTWe use an extension of the equilibrium framework of Rubinstein (1976) and Brennan (1979) to derive an option valuation formula when the stock return volatility is both stochastic and systematic. Our formula incorporates a stochastic volatility process as well as a stochastic interest rate process in the valuation of options. If the “mean,” volatility, and “covariance” processes for the stock return and the consumption growth are predictable, our option valuation formula can be written in “preference‐free” form. Further, many popular option valuation formulae in the literature can be written as special cases of our general formula.
Top‐Management Compensation and Capital Structure
Authors: JOHN TERESA A. , JOHN KOSE 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThe interrelationship between top‐management compensation and the design and mix of external claims issued by a firm is studied. The optimal managerial compensation structures depend on not only the agency relationship between shareholders and management, but also the conflicts of interests which arise in the other contracting relationships for which the firm serves as a nexus. We analyze in detail the optimal management compensation for the cases when the external claims are (1) equity and risky debt, and (2) equity and convertible debt. In addition to the role of aligning managerial incentives with shareholder interests, managerial compensation in a levered firm also serves as a precommitment device to minimize the agency costs of debt. The optimal management compensation derived has low pay‐performance sensitivity. With convertible debt, instead of straight debt, the corresponding optimal managerial compensation has high pay‐to‐performance sensitivity. A negative relationship between pay‐performance sensitivity and leverage is derived. Our results provide a reconciliation of the puzzling evidence of Jensen and Murphy (1990) with agency theory. Other testable implications include (1) a relationship between the risk premium in corporate bond yields and top‐management compensation structures, and (2) the announcement effect of adoption of executive stock option plans on bond prices. The model yields implications for management compensation in banks and Federal Deposit Insurance reform. Our results explain the dynamics of top‐management compensation in firms going through financial distress and reorganization.
Long‐Term Market Overreaction or Biases in Computed Returns?
Authors: CONRAD JENNIFER , KAUL GAUTAM 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTWe show that the returns to the typical long‐term contrarian strategy implemented in previous studies are upwardly biased because they are calculated by cumulating single‐period (monthly) returns over long intervals. The cumulation process not only cumulates “true” returns but also the upward bias in single‐period returns induced by measurement errors. We also show that the remaining “true” returns to loser or winner firms have no relation to overreaction. This study has important implications for event studies that use cumulative returns to assess the impact of information events.
General Tests of Latent Variable Models and Mean‐Variance Spanning
Authors: FERSON WAYNE E. , FOERSTER STEPHEN R. , KEIM DONALD B. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThe methods of Gibbons and Ferson (1985) are extended, relaxing the assumption that expected returns are linear functions of predetermined instruments. A model of conditional mean‐variance spanning generalizes Huberman and Kandel (1987). The empirical results indicate that more than a single risk premium is needed to model expected stock and bond returns, but the number of common factors in the expected returns is small. However, when size‐based common stock portfolios proxy for the risk factors, we reject the hypothesis that four of them describe the conditional expected returns of the other assets.
Variations in Trading Volume, Return Volatility, and Trading Costs: Evidence on Recent Price Formation Models
Authors: FOSTER F. DOUGLAS , VISWANATHAN S. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTPatterns in stock market trading volume, trading costs, and return volatility are examined using New York Stock Exchange data from 1988. Intraday test results indicate that, for actively traded firms trading volume, adverse selection costs, and return volatility are higher in the first half‐hour of the day. This evidence is inconsistent with the Admati and Pfleiderer (1988) model which predicts that trading costs are low when volume and return volatility are high. Interday test results show that, for actively traded firms, trading volume is low and adverse selection costs are high on Monday, which is consistent with the predictions of the Foster and Viswanathan (1990) model.
Trading and Manipulation Around Seasoned Equity Offerings
Authors: GERARD BRUNO , NANDA VIKRAM 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTWe investigate the potential for manipulation due to the interaction between secondary market trading prior to a seasoned equity offering (SO) and the pricing of the offering. Informed traders acting strategically may attempt to manipulate offering prices by selling shares prior to the SO, and profit subsequently from lower prices in the offering. The model predicts increased selling prior to a SO, leading to increases in the market maker's inventory and temporary price decreases. Further, since manipulation conceals information, the ratio of temporary to permanent components of the price movements is predicted to increase.
Defaults of Original Issue High‐Yield Convertible Bonds
Authors: ROSENGREN ERIC S. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTRecent studies using aging analysis have found high rates of default for rated, nonconvertible high‐yield bonds. This paper examines the remainder of the market and concludes that rated and nonrated convertible high‐yield bonds had significantly lower default rates. It also provides some evidence that nonrated, nonconvertible securities may have lower default rates. Even after controlling for issue size and coupon rates in a logit model, these differences remain statistically significant.
A Simple Measure of Price Adjustment Coefficients
Authors: DAMODARAN ASWATH 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTOne measure of market efficiency is the speed with which prices adjust to new information. We develop a simple approach to estimating these price adjustment coefficients by using the information in return processes. This approach is used to estimate the price adjustment coefficients for firms listed on the NYSE and the AMEX as well as for over‐the‐counter stocks. We find evidence of a lagged adjustment to new information in shorter return intervals for firms in all market value classes, and some support for the proposition that prices adjust much more slowly and with more noise for smaller firms.
A General Equilibrium Model of International Portfolio Choice
Authors: UPPAL RAMAN 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTWe investigate, in a two‐country general equilibrium model, whether a bias in consumption towards domestic goods will necessarily lead to a preference for domestic securities. We develop a model where investors are constrained to consume only from their domestic capital stock and where it is costly to transfer capital across countries. In this model, investors less risk averse than an investor with log utility bias their portfolios towards domestic assets. Investors more risk averse than log, however, prefer foreign assets. Thus, this model suggests that it is unlikely that the portfolios observed empirically can be explained by the high proportion of domestic goods in total consumption.
A Semiautoregression Approach to the Arbitrage Pricing Theory
Authors: MEI JIANPING 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis paper developes a semiautoregression (SAR) approach to estimate factors of the arbitrage pricing theory (APT) that has the advantage of providing a simple asymptotic variance‐covariance matrix for the factor estimates, which makes it easy to adjust for measurement errors. Using the extracted factors, I confirm the finding that the APT describes asset returns slightly better than the CAPM, although there is still some mispricing in the APT model. I find that not only are the factors “priced” by the market, but the factor premiums move over time in relation to business cycle variables.
Testing the Predictive Power of Dividend Yields
Authors: GOETZMANN WILLIAM N. , JORION PHILIPPE 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis paper reexamines the ability of dividend yields to predict long‐horizon stock returns. We use the bootstrap methodology, as well as simulations, to examine the distribution of test statistics under the null hypothesis of no forecasting ability. These experiments are constructed so as to maintain the dynamics of regressions with lagged dependent variables over long horizons. We find that the empirically observed statistics are well within the 95% bounds of their simulated distributions. Overall there is no strong statistical evidence indicating that dividend yields can be used to forecast stock returns.
Calls of Warrants: Timing and Market Reaction
Authors: SCHULTZ PAUL 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis paper examines the timing of, and reaction to, calls of callable warrants. Three main findings emerge. First, unlike convertible bonds or preferred stock, callable warrants are called almost as soon as possible. Second, there is a negative price reaction of about 3 percent when a call is announced. Finally, at the completion of a call, the stock price rebounds by an average of 7 percent. The total reaction from announcement through completion of the call is a positive excess return of about 4 percent.
Information, Ownership Structure, and Shareholder Voting: Evidence from Shareholder‐Sponsored Corporate Governance Proposals
Authors: GORDON LILLI A. , POUND JOHN 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis paper examines how information and ownership structure affect voting outcomes on shareholder‐sponsored proposals to change corporate governance structure. We find that the outcomes of votes vary systematically with the governance and performance records of target firms, the identity of proposal sponsors, and the type of proposal. We also find that outcomes vary significantly as a function of ownership by insiders, institutions, outside blockholders, ESOPs, and outside directors who are blockholders. These results suggest that both public information and ownership structure have a significant influence on voting outcomes.
A Test for the Number of Factors in an Approximate Factor Model
Authors: CONNOR GREGORY , KORAJCZYK ROBERT A. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTAn important issue in applications of multifactor models of asset returns is the appropriate number of factors. Most extant tests for the number of factors are valid only for strict factor models, in which diversifiable returns are uncorrelated across assets. In this paper we develop a test statistic to determine the number of factors in an approximate factor model of asset returns, which does not require that diversifiable components of returns be uncorrelated across assets. We find evidence for one to six pervasive factors in the cross‐section of New York Stock Exchange and American Stock Exchange stock returns.
Security Design
Authors: BOOT ARNOUD W. A. , THAKOR ANJAN V. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTWe explain why an issuer may wish to raise external capital by selling multiple financial claims that partition its total asset cash flows, rather than a single claim. We show that, in an asymmetric information environment, the issuer's expected revenue is enhanced by such cash flow partitioning because it makes informed trade more profitable. This approach seems capable of shedding light on corporate incentives to issue debt and equity, as well as on financial intermediaries' incentives to issue multiple classes of claims against portfolios of securitized assets.
Crowding Out and the Informativeness of Security Prices
Authors: PAUL JONATHAN M. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTIndividual investors trade less agressively on any particular piece of information as more investors observe it. The trades of the new investors observing a piece of information “crowd out” some of the trades of the old investors who observe that same piece of information. This paper shows that when traders are risk averse, these crowding out effects lead the proportions of traders who choose to observe one signal versus another to differ from the proportions that maximize the informativeness of prices.
Issue Size Choice and “Underpricing” in Thrift Mutual‐to‐Stock Conversions
Authors: MAKSIMOVIC VOJISLAV , UNAL HALUK 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTIssue size choice and underpricing in mutual‐to‐stock conversions of thrifts are explained as a function of growth opportunities, perquisite consumption, and proprietary information. We provide evidence that thrifts with greater growth opportunities choose larger issue size and experience higher after‐market price appreciation. This finding persists when we allow for investors' inferences about managers' proprietary information. Variables that explain underpricing in typical initial public offerings are significant by themselves but lose significance when combined with the issue size choice variables. Managerial holdings and the offer price do not act as dissipative signals of value in thrift conversions.
On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks
Authors: GLOSTEN LAWRENCE R. , JAGANNATHAN RAVI , RUNKLE DAVID E. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTWe find support for a negative relation between conditional expected monthly return and conditional variance of monthly return, using a GARCH‐M model modified by allowing (1) seasonal patterns in volatility, (2) positive and negative innovations to returns having different impacts on conditional volatility, and (3) nominal interest rates to predict conditional variance. Using the modified GARCH‐M model, we also show that monthly conditional volatility may not be as persistent as was thought. Positive unanticipated returns appear to result in a downward revision of the conditional volatility whereas negative unanticipated returns result in an upward revision of conditional volatility.
Currency Hedging for International Portfolios
Authors: GLEN JACK , JORION PHILIPPE 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis paper examines the benefits from currency hedging, both for speculative and risk minimization motives, in international bond and equity portfolios. The risk‐return performances of globally diversified portfolios are compared with and without forward contracts. Over the period 1974 to 1990, inclusion of forward contracts results in statistically significant improvements in the performance of unconditional portfolios containing bonds. Conditional strategies are also implemented, both in sample and out of sample, and are shown to both significantly improve the risk‐return tradeoff of global portfolios and to outperform unconditional hedging strategies.
Option Valuation and Hedging Strategies with Jumps in the Volatility of Asset Returns
Authors: NAIK VASANTTILAK 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTWe develop a model in which the volatility of risky assets is subject to random and discontinuous shifts over time. We derive prices of claims contingent on such assets and analyze options‐based trading strategies to hedge against the risk of jumps in the return volatility. Unsystematic and systematic events such as takeovers, major changes in business plans, or shifts in economic policy regimes may drastically alter firms' risk profiles. Our model captures the effect of such events on options markets.
The Determinants of Leveraged Buyout Activity: Free Cash Flow vs. Financial Distress Costs
Authors: OPLER TIM , TITMAN SHERIDAN 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis paper investigates the determinants of leveraged buyout (LBO) activity by comparing firms that have implemented LBOs to those that have not. Consistent with the free cash flow theory, we find that firms that initiate LBOs can be characterized as having a combination of unfavorable investment opportunities (low Tobin's q) and relatively high cash flow. LBO firms also tend to be more diversified than firms which do not undertake LBOs. In addition, firms with high expected costs of financial distress (e.g., those with high research and development expenditures) are less likely to do LBOs.
Implied Binomial Trees
Authors: RUBINSTEIN MARK 
Published: April 2012

AbstractThis article develops a new method for inferring risk‐neutral probabilities (or state‐contingent prices) from the simultaneously observed prices of European options. These probabilities are then used to infer a unique fully specified recombining binomial tree that is consistent with these probabilities (and, hence, consistent with all the observed option prices). A simple backwards recursive procedure solves for the entire tree. From the standpoint of the standard binomial option pricing model, which implies a limiting risk‐neutral lognormal distribution for the underlying asset, the approach here provides the natural (and probably the simplest) way to generalize to arbitrary ending risk‐neutral probability distributions.