bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Effects of overconfidence and dependence on aggregated probability judgments
Authors: Lin Shi‐Woei , Huang Ssu‐Wei 
Published: March 2012

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate how expert overconfidence and dependence affect the calibration of aggregated probability judgments obtained by various linear opinion‐pooling models.Design/methodology/approachThe authors used a large database containing real‐world expert judgments, and adopted the leave‐one‐out cross‐validation technique to test the calibration of aggregated judgments obtained by Cooke's classical model, the equal‐weight linear pooling method, and the best‐expert approach. Additionally, the significance of the effects using linear models was rigorously tested.FindingsSignificant differences were found between methods. Both linear‐pooling aggregation approaches significantly outperformed the best‐expert technique, indicating the need for inputs from multiple experts. The significant overconfidence effect suggests that linear pooling approaches do not effectively counteract the effect of expert overconfidence. Furthermore, the second‐order interaction between aggregation method and expert dependence shows that Cooke's classical model is more sensitive to expert dependence than equal weights, with high dependence generally leading to much poorer aggregated results; by contrast, the equal‐weight approach is more robust under different dependence levels.Research limitations/implicationsThe results suggest that methods involving broadening of subjective confidence intervals or distributions may occasionally be useful for mitigating the overconfidence problem. An equal‐weight approach might be more favorable when the level of dependence between experts is high. Although it was found that the number of experts and the number of seed questions also significantly affect the calibration of the aggregated distribution, further research to find the minimum number of questions or experts is required to ensure satisfactory aggregated performance would be desirable. Furthermore, other metrics or probability scoring rules should be used to check the robustness and generalizability of the authors' conclusion.Originality/valueThe paper provides empirical evidence of critical factors affecting the calibration of the aggregated intervals or distribution judgments obtained by linear opinion‐pooling methods.
Improving inventory performance with clustering based demand forecasts
Authors: Bala Pradip Kumar 
Published: March 2012

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to develop a forecasting model for retailers based on customer segmentation, to improve performance of inventory.Design/methodology/approachThe research makes an attempt to capture the knowledge of segmenting the customers based on various attributes as an input to the demand forecasting in a retail store. The paper suggests a data mining model which has been used for forecasting of demand. The proposed model has been applied for forecasting demands of eight SKUs for grocery items in a supermarket. Based on the proposed forecasting model, the inventory performance has been studied with simulation.FindingsThe proposed forecasting model with the inventory replenishment system results in the reduction of inventory level and increase in customer service level. Hence, the proposed model in the paper results in improved performance of inventory.Practical implicationsRetailers can make use of the proposed model for demand forecasting of various items to improve the inventory performance and profitability of operations.Originality/valueWith the advent of data mining systems which have given rise to the use of business intelligence in various domains, the current paper addresses one of the most pressing issues in retail management, as demand forecasting with minimum error is the key to success in inventory and supply chain management. The proposed forecasting model with the inventory replenishment system results in the reduction of inventory level and increase in customer service level. The proposed model outperforms other widely used existing models.
Designing balanced scorecard for multi echelon repair inventory systems
Authors: Garg Amik , Deshmukh S.G. 
Published: March 2012

PurposeA number of approaches have been suggested in the literature for maintenance performance measurement, including use of the balanced scorecard (BSC). However, its application towards assessing maintenance contribution to business objectives is limited. Currently, a framework integrating maintenance activities in a supply chain environment is lacking in the literature. The purpose of this paper is to develop a maintenance performance measurement framework using BSC for multi echelon repair inventory systems (MERIS) comprising of modular electronic equipment. The paper also suggests a large number of performance measures/indicators (PMs/PIs) pertaining to both maintenance and supply chain components including a few BSC implementation issues for such types of supply chains.Design/methodology/approachThe paper analyses a base model of a large maintenance organization and after carrying out SWOT analysis, identifies strategic themes/objectives for performance measurement. Performance measures for various objectives are identified for MERIS and implementation strategy including cascading of BSC is suggested. The developed performance measurement model is also validated using an action research (AR) based approach.FindingsA performance measurement system (PMS) for MERIS using BSC approach has been developed and an implementation strategy suggested. AR methodology is used for developing BSC for an organization using the selected performance measures. The importance of cause‐effect relationships between various performance objectives and measures is also established.Research limitations/implicationsQuantification of each of the developed PMs/PIs and establishing an effective information system for MERIS are the limitations of the present work and may be taken up for more research.Practical implicationsThe paper will be useful for practitioners in the field of MERIS of electronic repairables wherein relevant PMs/PIs can be selected for implementation as per the requirement of the application.Originality/valueThe paper is of value by being original, as no work towards performance measurement of MERIS using BSC concept (as applicable for non‐profit organizations like military, government, NGOs etc) is reported in literature so far. The paper is relevant in this context and its contribution lies in the area of performance measurement.
An application of analytic hierarchy process for the selection of a methodology to improve the product development process
Authors: Gurumurthy Anand , Kodali Rambabu 
Published: March 2012

PurposeAccording to the literature, on an average, it takes around three to four years to develop a new product and about 50 percent of the costs incurred in product development (PD) tend to be spent on waste that occurs during the PD process. Hence, organizations are implementing various alternative methodologies such as Concurrent Engineering (CE), Lean Product Development (LPD)/Lean New Product Development (LNPD), and Agile Product Development (APD)/Agile New Product Development (ANPD) to improve their existing PD process. However, it is not clear: how does an organisation or a PD manager choose between these alternative methodologies for improving their PD process?Design/methodology/approachSince the above‐mentioned problem requires multiple factors/criteria/elements (in short, it will be called as “attributes” for the sake of simplicity) to be considered simultaneously; the use of a Multi‐Attribute Decision Making (MADM) model is warranted. The most commonly used MADM model, namely the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is utilized to model the above problem using a hypothetical case situation.FindingsIn this paper, the different attributes that are to be considered while making a decision of selecting a suitable PD methodology were identified. Furthermore, the results of AHP indicated that LPD is a better alternative for the case situation under consideration.Originality/valueAccording to the authors' knowledge, no paper exists in the literature of AHP or PD or LPD/LNPD that discusses the application of AHP for the selection of a product development methodology, especially for making a strategic decision in a product design and development department of an organisation.
Online identification and referral for debt and mental health issues
Authors: Bell Gordon 
Published: March 2012

PurposeThis paper seeks to describe a new service developed by national debt charity Consumer Credit Counselling Service (CCCS) aimed at identifying clients within its online debt counselling tool who may be suffering from stress and anxiety and then referring them for advice and support, including computer‐based cognitive behavioural therapy (CCBT).Design/methodology/approachSince December 2010, clients using CCCS Debt Remedy, the charity's online debt counselling tool, have been asked four trigger questions which indicate whether the user is suffering from depression and/or anxiety. Clients who show these signs, after they receive a recommendation about how to deal with their debt, are offered the opportunity to complete a more comprehensive assessment known as CCCS Wellbeing. The CCCS Wellbeing assessment consists of 16 questions, nine relating to depression and seven to anxiety. The depression questions are based on the medically endorsed depression screener, PHQ‐9, and the anxiety questions are based on the similarly medically endorsed anxiety screener, GAD‐7. These two screeners are also the source of the four original trigger questions.FindingsOf the 36,618 clients who were counselled by CCCS Debt Remedy between the launch of the new service in December 2010 and the end of May 2011, 65 percent obtained a recommendation to undertake CCCS Wellbeing. The vast majority of clients who obtained a CCCS Wellbeing recommendation through the online debt counselling tool were showing signs of both depression and anxiety (74 percent).Originality/valueThe high propensity for people to be recommended to CCCS Wellbeing demonstrates the need for the service. This will inform future service development by CCCS, which is studying new ways to further identify and refer for help its clients who are struggling with their mental health.
Can enterprise architectures reduce failure in development projects?
Authors: Janssen Marijn , Klievink Bram 
Published: March 2012

PurposeScant attention has been given to the role of enterprise architecture (EA) in relationship to risk management in information system development projects. Even less attention has been given to the inter‐organizational setting. The aim of this paper is to better understand this relationship.Design/methodology/approachThe relationship between EA and project failure/success is investigated by – through a workshop – creating a retrospective view on the use of architectures in large and complex ICT‐projects.FindingsFailure factors can be grouped in organization network, people, process, product and technology categories. The findings show that a disappointingly limited number of public sector development projects make sufficient use of architecture as a risk management instrument. Architectures should be considered both as a risk‐mitigating instrument and as an organizational shaping routine to reduce project failure and manage risk in organization networks.Research limitations/implicationsA single workshop with a limited number of participants was conducted. The findings need further refinement and generalization based on more empirical research investigating the relationship between architecture and project failure.Practical implicationsArchitecture should give explicit consideration to risk management and help to draw attention to this. Governance mechanisms need be defined to ensure that the organizations' members become aware of both architecture and risk management. Risk management and EA have similarities, as they are both an instrument and an organizational shaping routine.Originality/valueGovernments collaborate more and more in organizational networks and for that reason often multiple organizations are involved in information system project developments. Enterprise architecture as a risk mitigation instrument has not, to date, been given attention.
IT enabled logistics procedure redesign for high value pharmaceutical shipments
Authors: Liu Jianwei , Higgins Allen , Tan Yao‐Hua 
Published: March 2012

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to introduce a method for (re)designing complex logistics networks, which interact with various governmental bodies (e.g. in FDA and USDA) for regulatory clearance and control purpose. The method (the e3‐control methodology) is demonstrated to be a useful approach to analyzing and redesigning international logistics procedures in reaction to a technological innovation in a government‐business (G2B) network.Design/methodology/approachAn action research method relying on Living Lab study was used in this research. To illustrate and better understand the application of the e3‐control methodology, the authors place the development of e3‐control as a design tool for deploying the pharmaceutical case. The authors collected data with multiple methods including workshops, semi‐structured interviews and document analysis.FindingsThe e3‐control methodology has been successfully applied in this paper to carry out a step‐by‐step redesign for an international pharmaceutical logistics network. It was found that a win‐win situation can be achieved if business and government see each other as partners and share the responsibility of carrying out government regulatory and Customs controls. In this situation, Customs administrations can be relieved from redundant control tasks, and businesses will be rewarded with simplified procedures.Originality/valueThe authors' e3‐control methodology is an innovative redesign methodology for analyzing and redesigning business logistic networks including government agencies. With this approach, one can achieve a clear overview on critical problems within the logistics chains; disclose unclear procedures and in the meanwhile take into consideration the different concerns of the partners within the network.
Quality and impact monitoring for local eGovernment services
Authors: Candiello Antonio , Albarelli Andrea , Cortesi Agostino 
Published: March 2012

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to introduce a layered, comprehensive model of quality of service (QoS) for local eGovernment, and discuss its feasibility on a regional eGovernment case study. The eGovernment online services are becoming a key infrastructure for advanced countries. They allow significant efficiency gains in different sectors of society, offering benefits for individual citizens and for the community as a whole. The deployment of online services alone is not sufficient in order to qualify an eGovernment strategy. The intrinsic and perceived quality of services offered, as well as the actual impact of new functionalities, should be properly measured and taken into account.Design/methodology/approachThis paper presents an applied research study for a quality‐focused evolution of a service‐oriented architecture for local eGovernment portals. This investigation was based on three main layers: the perceived quality and effective impact of services (G2C layer), the effectiveness of the deployed processes (WFM layer) and finally, the system‐level efficiency (G2G layer).FindingsThe measurement of quality with respect to eGovernment services is a complex task which requires appropriate tools to tackle the different aspects of the problem. Specifically, active and passive tools (respectively surveys and usage analysis) should be used to evaluate the quality perceived by the users as well as the utility of the service itself. The efficiency of the back office workflow must be estimated measuring statistical and dynamical indicators. Finally, technical measures should be used to monitor the responsiveness and scalability of software implementations and deployment systems.Social implicationsA better knowledge regarding (e‐)Government service delivery processes, their QoS and their impact on the society can empower both citizens and local administrators, and can help them to better improve the effectiveness of local government.Originality/valueThe multi‐layered quality measurement architecture proposed in this paper offers local governments the capability to systematically monitor and analyse the quality of their online services. The business process management technologies allow citizens to get a better knowledge of the service delivery processes; the QoS measurements allow to improve control on them; and the eGovernment Intelligence model allows to better quantify their actual social impact.
Collaborative e‐government
Authors: Ae Chun Soon , Luna‐Reyes Luis F. , Sandoval‐Almazán Rodrigo 
Published: March 2012

PurposeThe purpose of this paper (editorial) is to introduce a collection of “best papers,” selected from the 11th International Conference on Digital Government Research (dg.o, 2010), that are devoted to the technical, managerial, social and policy challenges and issues of collaborative e‐government. It provides a conceptual model for collaborative e‐government that may be used to explain the motivations and findings behind these studies.Design/methodology/approachThe paper outlines a conceptual model of collaborative e‐government using value‐driven, citizen‐driven, cost‐driven and technology‐driven forces that tie together various e‐government collaboration projects. A brief survey of government collaboration projects is presented and a set of research questions on collaborative e‐government are formulated.FindingsThe conceptual model of e‐government collaboration forces provides a framework that encompasses the research questions, topics and themes addressed in various digital government papers, especially those in this issue.Originality/valueThe paper introduces and summarizes seven research papers relative to the theme of e‐government collaborations, identifying a set of research challenges, opportunities, and unique solutions drawing on past experiences.
The size distribution of California's north coast wineries: 1984‐2009
Authors: Cyr Don , Kushner Joseph , Ogwang Tomson 
Published: March 2012

PurposeThe purpose of the paper is to examine the structure of California's north coast wine industry from 1984 to 2009, to determine if there are significant changes in the size distribution of wineries.Design/methodology/approachChi‐squared tests in conjunction with the Hoelter index are used to determine whether the changes in the market share for various size classes are significant.FindingsThe authors find a statistically significant trend in terms of smaller wineries becoming an increasing percentage of the total number of wineries and of market share.Originality/valueUnlike most other industries, small wineries are able to meet the changing market and technological conditions of the industry. These results augur well for the growing area of wine tourism which is highly dependent on boutique wineries. The results are also encouraging to new start up wineries considering entering the industry.
A strategic investigation of the determinants of wine consumption in China
Authors: Camillo Angelo A. 
Published: March 2012

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to determine consumer characteristics, buying behaviour, and the factors that influence the Chinese wine consumer.Design/methodology/approachThe study applies qualitative and quantitative methodology, together with a literature review and a strategic environmental scan of the Chinese wine market and consumer behavior.FindingsConsumer education, wine‐related activities, channels of communication, taste, country of origin, quality, and price rank are found to be important factors influencing the buying and consumption behavior of Chinese consumers.Research limitations/implicationsResults suggest that there is a need for stakeholders to develop and implement informational and educational marketing strategies to educate and inform consumers in ways that reflect their needs and expectations according to demographic characteristics.Practical implicationsThe challenge for the stakeholders will be to: penetrate this emerging market to establish presence and capture market share; strive for long‐term growth and profit sustainability; create competitive advantage through core competencies; promote and sell quality products applying the principles of yield management “to charge the right price, to the ideal consumer, at the right time, in the right place”; and build brand loyalty.Social implicationsThe paper offers useful findings for stakeholders in the wine supply chain. Special attention should be given to the alcoholic beverage retailer and hospitality operators for whom wine revenue is the core of aggregate beverage revenue.Originality/valueThe paper contributes to the body of knowledge of consumer behavior in relation to wine consumption in an emerging market. The results benefit players in the wine supply chain; especially retail and hospitality operations.
AT Guide: developing a new way to help people with dementia and their carers find information about assistive technology
Authors: Savitch Nada , Brooks Deborah , Wey Stephen 
Published: March 2012

PurposeAtdementia.org.uk is well established as the primary information resource about assistive technology (AT) that is helpful specifically for people with dementia. This paper aims to describe the development of a new online interface for the website that aims to encourage people with dementia to talk about the problems they are experiencing in their daily lives; guide them towards advice and information about technologies and other strategies that might be helpful; and enable them to become more involved in choices about their care and support.Design/methodology/approachThe paper describes the design process of the AT Guide and how people with dementia were involved in all aspects of the design. The design needed to balance the goals and aspirations of people with dementia with the database of assistive technology that is available and offer non technological solutions where appropriate.FindingsCombining skills and knowledge from different organisations has enabled the creation of a useful online service for people with dementia and their families. The project showed that using creative ways involving people with dementia in the development of products and services is both possible and desirable.Originality/valueFor people with dementia and their carers finding information about appropriate assistive technologies is not easy. This project demonstrates that, by working with people with dementia, information can be provided in a useful way.
How personalised technology can be used to benefit quality of life for people with learning disabilities who have multiple and complex needs
Authors: Fry Suzanne 
Published: March 2012

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how personalised technology can be adapted and used as a tool to benefit the quality of life for people with learning disabilities who have multiple and complex needs.Design/methodology/approachHft, a national charity supporting people with learning disabilities and their families, focuses on the introduction of personalised technology at one of its services, Clementi Court, using personal case studies to illustrate the positive impact it has had on their lives.FindingsBy taking a personalised approach in the use of technology, all individuals featured in the case studies were empowered to become more independent, enabling them to make more choices and ultimately take more control over their own lives.Originality/valueHft believes in using a creative and resourceful approach to support individuals to make choices about the lives they want.