bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Strategy Is Only Partly an Illusion: “Relative Foresight” as an Objective Standard for Evaluating Foreign Policy Competence
Authors: Friedman Jeffrey A , Zeckhauser Richard 
Published: June 2024

Abstract
Foreign policymakers must grapple with complexity, uncertainty, and subjectivity. These challenges raise the possibility that “strategy is an illusion”: that there is no reliable method for assessing skill at managing international politics. By contrast, we show that researchers can objectively evaluate a critical component of foreign policy competence using a standard we call “relative foresight,” defined as decision-makers’ ability to anticipate consequences of their choices as compared to alternative views based on similar information. Relative foresight can be measured without relying on value judgments or subjective probabilities. By contrast, other common frameworks for gauging foreign policy competence, such as comparing leaders’ behavior to the rational actor model or assessing procedural rationality, almost always leave room for reasonable disagreement. We demonstrate that relative foresight provides a useful tool for evaluating major foreign policy choices through case studies of Barack Obama’s decisions regarding the Afghan Surge and the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound. Our framework has broad implications for research on normative, prescriptive, and descriptive dimensions of foreign policy analysis.
Does Medical Insurance Integration Reduce Frailty Risk? Evidence From Rural Older Adults in China
Authors: Yang Fan , Guo Yujia 
Published: June 2024

Abstract

Objectives
This study aimed to assess the impacts of China’s health insurance integration reform on frailty among rural older adults.

Methods
Nationally representative longitudinal data with 2,751 adults aged ≥60 years were analyzed from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study 2011–2015. The integration of the rural New Cooperative Medical Scheme and urban Resident Basic Medical Insurance into the unified Urban and Rural Resident Basic Medical Insurance (URRBMI). Frailty Index (FI) summarizes 32 health deficits, quantifying frailty severity with a range of 0–1. Frailty is defined as FI ≥ 0.25, prefrailty as FI: 0.10–0.25, and robustness as FI &lt; 0.10. Frailty worsening, stability, and improvement from 2011 to 2015 were assessed. Difference-in-differences and propensity score matched difference-in-differences models assessed URRBMI integration effects on frailty severity and risk (FI ≥ 0.25) among rural older adults.

Results
URRBMI integration significantly reduced frailty severity by 15.16% and risk by 9.60% points among rural older adults. Reductions were greatest among initially prefrail individuals, with 27.49% lower frailty severity and a 17.62% point reduction in subsequent frailty onset risk after URRBMI integration. In contrast, no significant benefits were observed for initially robust or frail subgroups following integration. Analyses of frailty transitions corroborated selective benefits, with URRBMI integration lowering the risks of worsening frailty among prefrail but no significant reversal of frailty status among those initially frail or prefrail.

Discussion
China’s URRBMI integration selectively ameliorated frailty progression among rural older adults with prefrail status. Targeting integrated medical insurance policies toward high-risk populations may optimize frailty prevention effects.
Diversity of Intraspecific Patterns of Brain Region Size Covariation in Fish
Authors: Axelrod Caleb J , Urquhart Ellen M , Mahabir Pria N , Carlson Bruce A , Gordon Swanne P 
Published: June 2024

Synopsis
Traits often do not evolve in isolation or vary independently of other traits. Instead, they can be affected by covariation, both within and across species. However, the importance of within-species trait covariation and, critically, the degree to which it varies between species has yet to be thoroughly studied. Brain morphology is a trait of great ecological and behavioral importance, with regions that are hypothesized to vary in size based on behavioral and cognitive demands. Sizes of brain regions have also been shown to covary with each other across various taxa. Here, we test the degree to which covariation in brain region sizes within species has been conserved across 10 teleost fish species. These 10 species span five orders, allowing us to examine how phylogenetic proximity influences similarities in intraspecific trait covariation. Our results showed a trend that similar patterns of brain region size covariation occur in more closely related species. Interestingly, there were certain brain region pairs that showed similar levels of covariation across all species regardless of phylogenetic distance, such as the telencephalon and optic tectum, while others, such as the olfactory bulb and the hypothalamus, varied more independently. Ultimately, the patterns of brain region covariation shown here suggest that evolutionary mechanisms or constraints can act on specific brain regions independently, and that these constraints can change over evolutionary time.
Limb Loss and Specialized Leg Dynamics in Tiny Water-Walking Insects
Authors: O’Neil Johnathan N , Yung Kai Lauren , Difini Gaetano , Rohilla Pankaj , Bhamla Saad 
Published: June 2024

Synopsis
The air–water interface of the planet’s water bodies, such as ponds, lakes, and streams, presents an uncertain ecological niche with predatory threats from above and below. As Microvelia americana move across the water surface in small ponds, they face potential injury from attacks by birds, fish, and underwater invertebrates. Thus, our study investigates the effects of losing individual or pairs of tarsi on M. americana’s ability to walk on water. Removal of both hind tarsi causes M. americana to rock their bodies (yaw) while running across the water surface at $\pm 19^{\circ }$, compared to $\pm 7^{\circ }$ in nonablated specimens. This increase in yaw, resulting from the removal of hind tarsi, indicates that M. americana use their hind legs as “rudders” to regulate yaw, originating from the contralateral middle legs’ strokes on the water’s surface through an alternating tripod gait. Ablation of the ipsilateral middle and hind tarsi disrupts directionality, making M. americana turn in the direction of their intact limbs. This loss of directionality does not occur with the removal of contralateral middle and hind tarsi. However, M. americana lose their ability to use the alternating tripod gait to walk on water on the day of contralateral ablation. Remarkably, by the next day, M. americana adapt and regain the ability to walk on water using the alternating tripod gait. Our findings elucidate the specialized leg dynamics within the alternating tripod gait of M. americana, and their adaptability to tarsal loss. This research could guide the development and design strategies of small, adaptive, and resilient micro-robots that can adapt to controller malfunction or actuator damage for walking on water and terrestrial surfaces.
Humoral Immunogenicity of mRNA-1345 RSV Vaccine in Older Adults
Authors: Goswami Jaya , Baqui Abdullah H , Doreski Pablo A , Perez Marc Gonzalo , Jimenez Gilberto , Ahmed Salahuddin , Zaman Khalequz , Duncan Christopher J A , Ujiie Mugen , Rämet Mika , Pérez–Breva Lina , Lan Lan , Du Jiejun , Kapoor Archana , Mehta Shraddah , Tomassini Joanne E , Huang Wenmei , Zhou Honghong , Stoszek Sonia K , Priddy Frances , Lin Nina , Le Cam Nancy , Shaw Christine A , Slobod Karen , Wilson Eleanor , Miller Jacqueline M , Das Rituparna 
Published: June 2024

Abstract

Background
The mRNA-1345 vaccine demonstrated efficacy against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) disease with acceptable safety in adults aged ≥60 years in the ConquerRSV trial. Here, humoral immunogenicity results from the trial are presented.

Methods
This phase 2/3 trial randomly assigned adults (≥60 years) to mRNA-1345 50-µg encoding prefusion F (preF) glycoprotein (n = 17 793) vaccine or placebo (n = 17 748). RSV-A and RSV-B neutralizing antibody (nAb) and preF binding antibody (bAb) levels at baseline and day 29 postvaccination were assessed in a per-protocol immunogenicity subset (PPIS; mRNA-1345, n = 1515; placebo, n = 333).

Results
Day 29 nAb geometric mean titers (GMTs) increased 8.4-fold against RSV-A and 5.1-fold against RSV-B from baseline. Seroresponses (4-fold rise from baseline) in the mRNA-1345 groups were 74.2% and 56.5% for RSV-A and RSV-B, respectively. Baseline GMTs were lower among participants who met the seroresponse criteria than those who did not. mRNA-1345 induced preF bAbs at day 29, with a pattern similar to nAbs. Day 29 antibody responses across demographic and risk subgroups were generally consistent with the overall PPIS.

Conclusions
mRNA-1345 enhanced RSV-A and RSV-B nAbs and preF bAbs in adults (≥60 years) across various subgroups, including those at risk for severe disease, consistent with its demonstrated efficacy in the prevention of RSV disease.

Clinical Trials Registration
NCT05127434.
The skin barrier and microbiome in infantile atopic dermatitis development: can skincare prevent onset?
Authors: Ito Tomoka , Nakamura Yuumi 
Published: June 2024

Abstract
Atopic dermatitis (AD), a prevalent Th2-dominant skin disease, involves complex genetic and environmental factors, including mutations in the Filaggrin gene and dysbiosis of skin microbiota characterized by an increased abundance of Staphylococcus aureus. Our recent findings emphasize the pivotal role of the skin barrier’s integrity and microbial composition in infantile AD and allergic diseases. Early skin dysbiosis predisposes infants to AD, suggesting targeted skincare practices as a preventive strategy. The effects of skincare interventions, particularly the application of moisturizers with the appropriate molar concentration of ceramides, cholesterol, and fatty acids, play a crucial role in restoring the skin barrier. Notably, our study revealed that appropriate skincare can reduce Streptococcus abundance while supporting Cutibacterium acnes presence, thus directly linking skincare practices to microbial modulation in neonatal skin. Despite the mixed outcomes of previous Randomized Controlled Trials on the efficacy of moisturizers in AD prevention, our research points to the potential of skincare intervention as a primary preventive method against AD by minimizing the impact of genetic and environmental factors. Furthermore, our research supports the notion that early aggressive management of eczema may reduce the incidence of food allergies, highlighting the necessity for multifaceted prevention strategies that address both the skin barrier and immune sensitization. By focusing on repairing the skin barrier and adjusting the skin’s microbiome from birth, we propose a novel perspective on preventing infantile AD and allergic diseases, opening new avenues for future studies, and practices in allergy prevention.
Neutral selection and clonal expansion during the development of colon cancer metastasis
Authors: Lei Xuelian , Yamamoto Daisuke , Kitamura Hirotaka , Kita Kenji , Inaki Noriyuki , Murakami Kazuhiro , Nakayama Mizuho , Oshima Hiroko , Oshima Masanobu 
Published: June 2024

Abstract
Intratumour heterogeneity has been shown to play a role in the malignant progression of cancer. The clonal evolution in primary cancer has been well studied, however, that in metastatic tumorigenesis is not fully understood. In this study, we established human colon cancer-derived organoids and investigated clonal dynamics during liver metastasis development by tracking barcode-labelled subclones. Long-term subclone co-cultures showed clonal drift, with a single subclone becoming dominant in the cell population. Interestingly, the selected subclones were not always the same, suggesting that clonal selection was not based on cell intrinsic properties. Furthermore, liver tumours developed by co-transplantation of organoid subclones into the immunodeficient mouse spleen showed a progressive drastic reduction in clonal diversity, and only one or two subclones predominated in the majority of large metastatic tumours. Importantly, selections were not limited to particular subclones but appeared to be random. A trend towards a reduction in clonal diversity was also found in liver metastases of multiple colour-labelled organoids of mouse intestinal tumours. Based on these results, we propose a novel mechanism of metastasis development, i.e. a subclone population of the disseminated tumour cells in the liver is selected by neutral selection during colonization and constitutes large metastatic tumours.
Patterns and effects of gene flow on adaptation across spatial scales: implications for management
Authors: Sexton Jason P , Clemens Molly , Bell Nicholas , Hall Joseph , Fyfe Verity , Hoffmann Ary A 
Published: June 2024

Abstract
Gene flow can have rapid effects on adaptation and is an important evolutionary tool available when undertaking biological conservation and restoration. This tool is underused partly because of the perceived risk of outbreeding depression and loss of mean fitness when different populations are crossed. In this article, we briefly review some theory and empirical findings on how genetic variation is distributed across species ranges, describe known patterns of gene flow in nature with respect to environmental gradients, and highlight the effects of gene flow on adaptation in small or stressed populations in challenging environments (e.g., at species range limits). We then present a case study involving crosses at varying spatial scales among mountain populations of a trigger plant (Stylidium armeria: Stylidiaceae) in the Australian Alps to highlight how some issues around gene flow effects can be evaluated. We found evidence of outbreeding depression in seed production at greater geographic distances. Nevertheless, we found no evidence of maladaptive gene flow effects in likelihood of germination, plant performance (size), and performance variance, suggesting that gene flow at all spatial scales produces offspring with high adaptive potential. This case study demonstrates a path to evaluating how increasing sources of gene flow in managed wild and restored populations could identify some offspring with high fitness that could bolster the ability of populations to adapt to future environmental changes. We suggest further ways in which managers and researchers can act to understand and consider adaptive gene flow in natural and conservation contexts under rapidly changing conditions.
Eccentricity evolution of PTA sources from cosmological initial conditions
Authors: Fastidio F , Gualandris A , Sesana A , Bortolas E , Dehnen W 
Published: June 2024

ABSTRACT
Recent results from pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) show evidence for a gravitational wave background (GWB) consistent with a population of unresolved supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries (BHBs). While the data do not yet constrain the slope of the spectrum, this appears to flatten at the lowest frequencies, deviating from the power-law shape expected for circular binaries evolving solely due to gravitational wave (GW) emission. Interestingly, such flattening can be explained with a population of eccentric rather than circular binaries. The eccentricity of BHBs is notoriously difficult to predict based simply on the parameters of the host galaxies and the initial galactic orbit, as it is subject to stochastic effects. We study the evolution of the eccentricity of BHBs formed in galactic mergers with cosmological initial conditions from pairing to coalescence, with a focus on potential PTA sources. We select galactic mergers from the IllustrisTNG100-1 simulation and re-simulate them at high resolution with the N-body code griffin down to binary separations of the order of a parsec. We then estimate coalescence time-scales with a semi-analytical model of the evolution under the effects of GW emission and stellar hardening. We find that most mergers in IllustrisTNG100-1 occur on highly eccentric orbits, and that the eccentricity of BHBs at binary formation correlates with the initial eccentricity of the merger, if this is no larger than approximately 0.9. For extremely eccentric mergers, the binaries tend to form with modest eccentricities. We discuss the implications of these results on the interpretation of the observed GWB.
A laboratory infrared model of astrophysical pyrimidines
Authors: Rosa Caroline Antunes , Bergantini Alexandre , da Silveira Enio Frota , Emilio Marcelo , Andrade Laerte , Pacheco Eduardo Janot , Mason Nigel J , Lage Claudia 
Published: June 2024

ABSTRACT
Nucleobases are essential molecules for life, forming integral parts of deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) and ribonucleic acid (RNA) in all terrestrial life forms. Despite evidence of their abiotic synthesis in meteorites and laboratory simulations of interstellar medium (ISM) conditions, nucleobases have not been detected in the ISM. This study investigates the infrared spectra of uracil, cytosine, and thymine – pyrimidine nucleobases – embedded in an ice mixture simulating common volatiles found in protostellar discs. Our objective was to explore the feasibility of identifying unique infrared bands of pyrimidines in the ISM, despite significant overlapping absorption features from simpler, more abundant interstellar species such as H2O, CO, CH3OH, and NH3. Laboratory results revealed that although two common bands (1240 and 760 cm−1 in uracil; 1236 and 763 cm−1 in cytosine; and 1249 and 760 cm−1 in thymine) were identified, the detection of these bands in space is challenged by overlapping absorption features. Recent observations with the JWST have shown that interstellar organic species exhibit infrared signals within similar ranges, making it impossible to distinguish pyrimidine bands from these organics. Thus, detecting pyrimidines with current telescopes is infeasible, not due to sensitivity limitations or the need for more powerful instrumentation, but because of the intrinsic overlap in spectral features. This study complements previous research on purines by examining pyrimidines and including the impact of common ISM volatiles in the ice composition. The results highlight the significant challenges in detecting complex molecules in the ISM, underscoring the importance of understanding the spectral complexities and interactions to interpret astronomical observations accurately.
All-sky three-dimensional dust density and extinction Maps of the Milky Way out to 2.8 kpc
Authors: Dharmawardena T E , Bailer-Jones C A L , Fouesneau M , Foreman-Mackey D , Coronica P , Colnaghi T , Müller T , Wilson A G 
Published: June 2024

ABSTRACT
Three-dimensional dust density maps are crucial for understanding the structure of the interstellar medium of the Milky Way and the processes that shape it. However, constructing these maps requires large data sets and the methods used to analyse them are computationally expensive and difficult to scale up. As a result, it has only recently become possible to map kiloparsec-scale regions of our Galaxy at parsec-scale grid sampling. We present all-sky three-dimensional dust density and extinction maps of the Milky Way out to 2.8 kpc in distance from the Sun using the fast and scalable Gaussian Process algorithm Dustribution. The sampling of the three-dimensional map is l, b, d = 1° × 1° × 1.7 pc. The input extinction and distance catalogue contains 120 million stars with photometry and astrometry from Gaia DR2, 2MASS and AllWISE. This combines the strengths of optical and infrared data to probe deeper into the dusty regions of the Milky Way. We compare our maps with other published 3D dust maps. All maps quantitatively agree at the 0.001 mag pc−1 scale with many qualitatively similar features, although each map also has its own features. We recover Galactic features previously identified in the literature. Moreover, we also see a large under-density that may correspond to an inter-arm or -spur gap towards the Galactic Centre.
Towards including super-sample covariance in the unbinned likelihood for cluster abundance cosmology
Authors: Payerne C , Murray C , Combet C , Penna-Lima M 
Published: June 2024

ABSTRACT
The measurement of the abundance of galaxy clusters in the Universe is a sensitive probe of cosmology, which depends on both the expansion history of the Universe and the growth of structure. Density fluctuations across the finite survey volume add noise to this measurement, this is often referred to as super-sample covariance (SSC). For an unbinned cluster analysis, such noise has not been included in the cluster likelihood, since the effect of SSC was small compared to the Poisson shot-noise for samples of a few hundred clusters. For upcoming large cluster surveys such as the Rubin LSST, which will deliver catalogues of tens of thousands of clusters, this effect will no longer be negligible. In this paper, we propose a new hybrid likelihood based on the Gauss-Poisson Compound model (GPC), by using infinitesimal mass bins and standard redshift bins. This likelihood has the advantages of an unbinned Poisson likelihood while successfully incorporating the effects of SSC. Using a simulated dark matter halo catalogue, we find that the hybrid likelihood, accounting for both Poisson noise and SSC, increases the dispersion of the parameter posteriors by 20 per cent when using 100 000 clusters compared to the standard unbinned likelihood, based on Poisson statistics only.
Absence of a correlation between white dwarf planetary accretion and primordial stellar metallicity
Authors: Jenkins Sydney , Vanderburg Andrew , Bieryla Allyson , Latham David W , Badenas-Agusti Mariona , Berlind Perry , Blouin Simon , Buchhave Lars A , Calkins Michael L , Esquerdo Gilbert A , Viaña Javier 
Published: June 2024

ABSTRACT
Over a quarter of white dwarfs have photospheric metal pollution, which is evidence for recent accretion of exoplanetary material. While a wide range of mechanisms have been proposed to account for this pollution, there are currently few observational constraints to differentiate between them. To investigate the driving mechanism, we observe a sample of polluted and non-polluted white dwarfs in wide binary systems with main-sequence stars. Using the companion stars’ metallicities as a proxy for the white dwarfs’ primordial metallicities, we compare the metallicities of polluted and non-polluted systems. Because there is a well-known correlation between giant planet occurrence and higher metallicity (with a stronger correlation for close-in and eccentric planets), these metallicity distributions can be used to probe the role of gas giants in white dwarf accretion. We find that the metallicity distributions of polluted and non-polluted systems are consistent with the hypothesis that both samples have the same underlying metallicity distribution. However, we note that this result is likely biased by several selection effects. Additionally, we find no significant trend between white dwarf accretion rates and metallicity. These findings suggest that giant planets are not the dominant cause of white dwarf accretion events in binary systems.