bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Intelligent techniques for forecasting multiple time series in real‐world systems
Authors: Wagner Neal , Michalewicz Zbigniew , Schellenberg Sven , Chiriac Constantin , Mohais Arvind 
Published: August 2011

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to describe a real‐world system developed for a large food distribution company which requires forecasting demand for thousands of products across multiple warehouses. The number of different time series that the system must model and predict is on the order of 105. The study details the system's forecasting algorithm which efficiently handles several difficult requirements including the prediction of multiple time series, the need for a continuously self‐updating model, and the desire to automatically identify and analyze various time series characteristics such as seasonal spikes and unprecedented events.Design/methodology/approachThe forecasting algorithm makes use of a hybrid model consisting of both statistical and heuristic techniques to fulfill these requirements and to satisfy a variety of business constraints/rules related to over‐ and under‐stocking.FindingsThe robustness of the system has been proven by its heavy and sustained use since being adopted in November 2009 by a company that serves 91 percent of the combined populations of Australia and New Zealand.Originality/valueThis paper provides a case study of a real‐world system that employs a novel hybrid model to forecast multiple time series in a non‐static environment. The value of the model lies in its ability to accurately capture and forecast a very large and constantly changing portfolio of time series efficiently and without human intervention.
A multimodel approach for a nonlinear system based on neural network validity
Authors: Ben Mohamed Raja , Ben Nasr Hichem , M'Sahli Faouzi 
Published: August 2011

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to present a new concept based on a neural network validity approach in the area of multimodel for complex systems.Design/methodology/approachThe multimodel approach was recently developed in order to solve the modeling problems and the control of complex systems. The strategy of this approach coincides with the usual approach of the engineer which consists in subdividing a complex problem to a set of simple, manageable sub‐problems that can be solved separately. However, this approach still faces some problems in design, especially in determining models and in finding the appropriate method of calculating validities.FindingsA novel approach based on neural network validity shows very remarkable performances in multimodel for complex systems.Research limitations/implicationsThe validity of each model is based on the convergence of each neural network. For a fast convergence the proposed approach can be online to give a good performance in multimodel representation for system with rapid dynamics.Practical implicationsThe proposed concept discussed in the paper has the potential to be applied to complex systems.Originality/valueThe suggested approach is implemented and reviewed with a complex dynamic and fast process compared to the residue approach commonly used in the calculation of validities. The results prove to be satisfactory and show a good accuracy.
Human behaviour profiling for anomaly detection
Authors: Zhu Xudong , Liu Zhi‐Jing 
Published: August 2011

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to address the problem of profiling human behaviour patterns captured in surveillance videos for the application of online normal behaviour recognition and anomaly detection.Design/methodology/approachA novel framework is developed for automatic behaviour profiling and online anomaly detection without any manual labeling of the training dataset.FindingsExperimental results demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the authors' approach using noisy and sparse datasets collected from one real surveillance scenario.Originality/valueTo discover the topics, co‐clustering topic model not only captures the correlation between words, but also models the correlations between topics. The major difference between the conventional co‐clustering algorithms and the proposed CCMT is that CCMT shows a major improvement in terms of recall, i.e. interpretability.
New unbiased H infinity functional filters designs for discrete‐time linear systems
Authors: Ezzine Montassar , Darouach Mohamed , Souley Ali Harouna , Messaoud Hassani 
Published: August 2011

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to propose solutions for both discrete‐time and frequency‐domain designs of unbiased H∞ functional filters for discrete‐time linear systems affected by bounded norm energy disturbances.Design/methodology/approachThe discrete‐time procedure design is based on the unbiasedness of the functional filter using a Sylvester equation; then the problem is expressed in a singular system one and is solved in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). The frequency procedure design is derived from discrete‐time domain results by defining some useful matrix fraction descriptions and mainly, establishing the useful and equivalent form of the connecting relationship that parameterizes the dynamics behavior between discrete‐time and z‐domain.FindingsThe performance of the proposed approach is illustrated with the aid of a practical example. The proposed methods are easily implementable and concern a more general class of systems, as the transformation of the system in a singular one permits to treat the problem of perturbance advanced.Originality/valueFirst, the order of this filter is equal to the dimension of the vector to be estimated, which is benefit in case of control purpose (reduction of time calculation comparing to the full order one). Second, all recent works on the functional filtering consider systems which permit to avoid to have advanced perturbation term in the error dynamics; the authors propose here an approach which resolves the H∞ filtering problem even when the term is present. In addition, it permit to consider more general class of discrete‐time systems. Furthermore, the LMI approaching the discrete‐time case permits to handle with more general problem (H∞, L2−H∞) than the classical Riccati one.
How will the recession affect crime rates in Greater Manchester?
Authors: Fox Chris , Albertson Kevin , Ellison Mark , Martin Tom 
Published: August 2011

PurposeThis paper aims to explore what impact the recent economic recession and ongoing economic difficulties experienced in the UK might have on crime in Greater Manchester.Design/methodology/approachIn this paper, we summarise existing literature on the relationship between crime trends and economic trends. Then, drawing on data on crime, the economy and other relevant socio‐demographic trends in Greater Manchester some broad conclusions are drawn about likely crime trends in Greater Manchester over the coming years.FindingsThe paper concludes that recent reductions in crime might not be sustained, with crime rates in Manchester City's most vulnerable council area levelling out or even rising. This is particularly likely of the rate of violent crime.Research limitations/implicationsThis work is part of an ongoing project based at Manchester Metropolitan University to predict future crime trends in Greater Manchester.Originality/valueThis paper will be of value to police forces and local authorities, principally when conducting their strategic assessments.
The effect of study‐related burnout on student perceptions
Authors: Kuittinen Matti , Meriläinen Matti 
Published: August 2011

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the frequency of study‐related burnout (SRB) among Finnish university students. In addition, the students' perceptions concerning the teaching‐learning environment (TLE) and their personal achievement motivation (AM) were explored, and the correlation between perceived SRB and the TLE and AM components was revealed. Finally, business students and general university students were compared in terms of the aforementioned variables.Design/methodology/approachThe data were collected in the spring of 2009 based on a nationwide survey of nine Finnish universities (n=3,031).FindingsData analysis revealed that 45 percent of all respondents had an increased risk of burnout; while as many as 19 percent had an obviously increased risk. Regarding the frequency of SRB, there was no statistical difference between business students and general students. Using principal component analysis (PCA), 12 internally reliable pedagogical components of the TLE related to SRB were determined. Moreover, differences in the TLE and AM perceptions of business students and general students were revealed. However, the role of personal AM – such as studying abilities, study success and appreciation of studies – appeared to have the greatest effect on students' well‐being.Research limitations/implicationsIn the data analyzed, women represent 80 percent of participants, but in Finland, only 53 percent of university students are women. The number of business students (52) that participated in the study was low; thus, far‐reaching generalizations cannot be made.Originality/valueThe paper demonstrates that SRB causes drastic deterioration in students' cognitive appraisals of their AM. Perhaps, here lies the most insidious effect of SRB, because students suffering from SRB lose their self‐confidence in coping with study demands. Teachers should be able to help students seeking professional help for stress‐related problems. The rather high frequency of SRB also requires further remedies. Stress‐management techniques have proven effective in reducing stress‐related health symptoms.
Policy watch
Authors: Lawton‐Smith Simon 
Published: August 2011

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to provide a quarterly review of recent or forthcoming policy developments in mental health and social inclusion issues.Design/methodology/approachThe author describes and comments on the most significant recent policy developments from within the UK that impact on mental health services and people with mental health needs.FindingsThe paper finds that the NHS reforms in England could cause some problems for the implementation of the new English mental health strategy; Northern Ireland and Scotland are both in a position to develop new mental health frameworks and Wales is implementing new statutory rights for mental health service users.Originality/valueThis paper summarises some recent policy developments in mental health across the UK.
Social exclusion and mental health – how people with mental health problems are disadvantaged: an overview
Authors: Boardman Jed 
Published: August 2011

PurposeThis paper aims to provide an overview of social exclusion and the way in which people with mental health problems are excluded from mainstream society in contemporary Britain.Design/methodology/approachThe paper presents the main findings of the work of the Royal College of Psychiatrists Scoping Group on Social Exclusion and Mental Health.FindingsAn individual is socially excluded if he or she does not participate in key activities of the society in which he or she lives. People with mental health problems, particularly those with long‐term psychoses, are among the most excluded groups in the UK. They may be excluded from material resources (poverty), from socially valued productive activity, from social relations and neighborhoods, from civic participation and from health and health services.Originality/valueThe findings of the Scoping Group provide an up to date view of the exclusion in people with mental health problems in the UK.
Addressing the impact of social exclusion on mental health in Gypsy, Roma, and Traveller communities
Authors: Yin‐Har Lau Annie , Ridge Michael 
Published: August 2011

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to look at the impact of social exclusion on mental health in Gypsy, Roma, and Traveller (GRT) communities and make suggestions for services needed to address it. The context of significant financial cuts in public sector budgets in the UK and change in the commissioning landscape mean there are significant risks of these vulnerable communities falling even further behind.Design/methodology/approachThe authors, both currently engaged in clinical practice, draw on mental health and social work perspectives to review key areas in which social exclusion impacts on the life chances of members of GRT communities. Some examples of good current provision are included as is a case study which illustrates the problematic social context in contemporary relations between traditional Gypsy/Travellers and the settled community, and the impact on family life.FindingsResearch findings from contemporary studies are cited, which show members of these communities suffer significant inequalities in all health and social spheres.Research limitations/implicationsThe GRT communities have not been listed in census categories until this year (2011).Social implicationsThe paper will hopefully contribute to raising public awareness, and support members of the community in participation in policy and decision making.Originality/valueThis paper arises out of interdisciplinary collaboration between a psychiatrist and a social worker with the support of the voluntary sector. The discussion highlights the gaps in commissioning arrangements and hitherto poor support for health and social care needs of the GRT communities.
A novel grey relational model based on grey number sequences
Authors: Xie Nai‐ming , Liu Si‐feng 
Published: August 2011

PurposeThis paper aims to construct a novel grey relational model based on grey number sequences and to solve the problems which exist in traditional grey relational models, in which the uncertain information cannot be described.Design/methodology/approachBased on the definition of traditional grey relational models, considering the limited information and knowledge, the algorithm of grey numbers was combined with the grey relational model. A general formula of grey operations and grey distance is defined. A novel grey relational model based on grey number sequences, named grey geometrical relational model, is proposed according to the definition of grey distance. Finally, several properties including parallel, multiple and order‐keeping about the proposed model are discussed.FindingsThe results show that the novel grey relational model satisfies the properties properly. It is useful to calculate the relational degree of two different grey number sequences. And the process of calculating is easier than traditional grey relational models.Practical implicationsThe method exposed in the paper can be used to calculate every two sequences. The method can also be used to rank sequences of more than two.Originality/valueThe paper succeeds in constructing a novel grey relational model. The properties of novel model are studied and it is a new development in grey systems theory undoubtedly.
Study on community structure characteristics of cluster networks with calculation and adjustment of trust degree based on the grey correlation degree algorithm
Authors: Wang Wenping , Wang Jiaoli , Huang Xinhuan , Shen Qiuying 
Published: August 2011

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to attempt to calculate the trust degree between two enterprises in an industrial network using grey correlation degree algorithm for exploring characteristics of community structure and evolution rules of cluster cooperation networks in axle‐type and satellite‐type clusters.Design/methodology/approachStarting from analysis of trust formation mechanism of inter‐enterprise in industrial networks, adjacency of inter‐enterprise relationship, their information acquisition ability, their influence power in network and their past interaction experience are chosen as influencing factors of the trust between two enterprises. Grey correlation degree algorithm was chosen to calculate the trust degree between two enterprises in an industrial network. According to the rules of dynamic adjustment of trust degree originated from thoughts of the prisoners' dilemma model, computer simulation is applied to explore characteristics of community structure and evolution rules of cluster cooperation network in axle‐type and satellite‐type clusters.FindingsWith the dynamic adjustment of enterprises' trust degree, the network density of axle‐type and satellite‐type cluster networks was decreasing as the cluster scale was enlarging, and eventually tended to be stable; community structure was emerged in axle‐type and satellite‐type industrial clusters as the cluster scale was enlarging; community characteristics were obviously stronger in axle‐type cluster networks than in satellite‐type; communities were overlapped in axle‐type cluster networks, that is, bridge nodes emerged between communities.Originality/valueThis paper is the first to apply the grey correlation degree algorithm to calculate the trust degree between two enterprises in cluster networks for designing the rules of dynamic adjustment of trust degree.
The construction of new weakening buffer operators and their application
Authors: Luo Dang , Wang Xia 
Published: August 2011

PurposeAccording to the basic principle of grey system and third axiom buffer operator, aiming at the problem of disturbance, some new weakening buffer operators are established by analytical skills in the process of prediction. The problem of some contradictions between quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis existing in pretreatment for vibration data sequences is resolved effectively. An example shows that the kind of new weakening buffer operators increase the forecast precision of data forecast model remarkably. The aim of this paper is to attempt to resolve the problem of some contradictions between quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis existing in pretreatment for vibration data sequences.Design/methodology/approachIn view of the problem of some contradictions between quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis existing in pretreatment for vibration data sequences, according to the basic principle of grey system and third axiom buffer operator, some new weakening buffer operators are established by analytical skills. As an example, the kind of new weakening buffer operators can increase the forecast precision of data forecast model remarkably.FindingsThe results show that the new weakening buffer operators can increase the forecast precision of data forecast model remarkably.Practical implicationsThe new weakening buffer operators exposed in the paper can be used to resolve the problem of some contradictions between quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis existing in pretreatment for vibration data sequences and increase the forecast precision of data forecast model remarkably.Originality/valueThe paper succeeds in increasing the forecast precision of data forecast model remarkably.
A kind of universal constructor method for buffer operators
Authors: Wei Yong , Kong Xin‐hai , Hu Da‐hong 
Published: August 2011

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to perfect the axiom systems of buffer operator via adding the axiom of invariable trend.Design/methodology/approachBased on the three axioms of buffer operator, for any given data sequence of system behavior and any set of data satisfying the axiom of fixed point, it is proved that there always exists a buffer operator satisfying that the set of data is the buffer sequence of the given data sequence, and a specific constructor method of buffer operator is provided. Finally, the axiom of invariable trend is proposed to add in the axiom systems of buffer operator.FindingsThe results are convincing that although the raw sequence suffered from certain disturbance may be enlarged or reduced, the trend is in line with the original law. All predictions must be on the premise of this trend to forecast, or prediction will be considered invalid.Practical implicationsThe method exposed in the paper can be used to construct a specific buffer operator between two sequences satisfying the axiom of fixed point.Originality/valueThe paper succeeds in providing a kind of universal constructor method for buffer operator, and adding the axiom of invariable trend to perfect the axiom systems of buffer operator and ensure the consistency of variation trend between the predicted values and the actual values.
Marginal structural models: much ado about (almost) nothing
Authors: Shahar Eyal , Shahar Doron J. 
Published: August 2011

AbstractMarginal structural models were developed to account for a so‐called time‐dependent confounder and to estimate the presumed effect of ‘treatment regime’ (treatment over time). We present a set of causal axioms, according to which the problem of time‐dependent confounding does not exist, and ‘treatment regime’ affects nothing. Per our axiomatization, marginal structural models do not introduce a new idea of deconfounding, but simply estimate a weighted average of effects. Whenever a weighted average and the weighting scheme can both be rationalized, the models are acceptable. Whenever a weighted average does not estimate an effect (e.g. important effect modification is ignored), or the weights are senseless – the models should not be fit.
Clinical handover in acute psychiatric and community mental health settings
Authors: HUNT G. E. , MARSDEN R. , O'CONNOR N. 
Published: August 2011

Accessible summary
This study collected a snapshot of current handover practice in mental health settings from doctors, nurses, community and allied health staff. The handover of care is a very important process as breakdown in communication during shift changes or when a patient is transferred from one place to another is one of the leading causes of adverse events and failure of care or services.
Structuring the content of the verbal component of handover and documenting the handover may make measurable improvements to the effectiveness of clinical handovers.
Sometimes negative statements are expressed about a patient during handover. This should be avoided as negative labelling and judgement of a patient or illness can have serious consequences for patient care, especially when this information, if passed on, could prejudice the oncoming shift.
The inclusion of prompts or simulation models to recognize and escalate patients that are deteriorating in their physical condition or mental state may improve patient outcomes by prompting action to avert adverse events.
AbstractThis study collected an area‐wide snapshot of current handover practice in psychiatric settings which included acute care units and community mental health centres. The study was conducted in two stages. Firstly, a questionnaire was sent to all clinical mental health staff within an area‐wide health service regarding normal handover procedures and processes. The second part of the study used non‐participant observers to evaluate actual handovers in inpatient and community settings. Of the 1125 surveys distributed in stage one, 380 (34%) were returned completed. Of the 40 handovers observed in stage two in which 637 patients were discussed, 40% included at least one consultant psychiatrist or registrar as a participant. Almost all the handovers were completed face‐to‐face in a specific location with a set time and duration. Eighty‐six per cent of respondents reported that deteriorating patients were escalated for rapid response. The results of the survey and structured observations support the issues emerging from the literature from medical, surgical and clinical team handovers. Additionally, the issue of identifiers for deterioration of a psychiatric patient emerged as an area worthy of further investigation and incorporation into clinical handover education and training for psychiatric services.