bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Probabilistic Precipitation Forecast Skill as a Function of Ensemble Size and Spatial Scale in a Convection-Allowing Ensemble
Authors: Clark Adam J. , Kain John S. , Stensrud David J. , Xue Ming , Kong Fanyou , Coniglio Michael C. , Thomas Kevin W. , Wang Yunheng , Brewster Keith , Gao Jidong , Wang Xuguang , Weiss Steven J. , Du Jun 
Published: January 2011

Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) from the storm-scale ensemble forecast system run by the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms during the spring of 2009 are evaluated using area under the relative operating characteristic curve (ROC area). ROC area, which measures discriminating ability, is examined for ensemble size n from 1 to 17 members and for spatial scales ranging from 4 to 200 km. Expectedly, incremental gains in skill decrease with increasing n. Significance tests comparing ROC areas for each n to those of the full 17-member ensemble revealed that more members are required to reach statistically indistinguishable PQPF skill relative to the full ensemble as forecast lead time increases and spatial scale decreases. These results appear to reflect the broadening of the forecast probability distribution function (PDF) of future atmospheric states associated with decreasing spatial scale and increasing forecast lead time. They also illustrate that efficient allocation of computing resources for convection-allowing ensembles requires careful consideration of spatial scale and forecast length desired.
Favorable Conditions for the Development of a Heavy Rainfall Event over Oahu during the 2006 Wet Period
Authors: Tu Chuan-Chi , Chen Yi-Leng 
Published: January 2011

AbstractDuring the 2006 wet period, as eastward-moving transient disturbances passed through a semipermanent low pressure system west of Hawaii, southerly winds east of the low strengthened bringing in higher than usual amounts of moisture from the deep tropics to Hawaii. All five heavy rainfall episodes during the wet period occurred during a southerly wind regime. Favorable conditions for the development of the Kahala Mall flood case on 31 March 2006 are examined. A high low-level θe axis across Hawaii indicated the existence of convective instability over Hawaii. A transient midlatitude trough extending southward merged with the semipermanent subtropical trough. The tropopause folding associated with the deepening subtropical trough contributed to the spinup of the Kona low. The advection of high-PV air in the upper troposphere enhanced upward motion downstream over Hawaii. The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) simulation shows that latent heat release contributed to an eastward shift of the moisture tongue and enhanced moisture convergence at low levels. The horizontal distributions of instability indices, especially the K index, from WRF modeling can provide useful forecast guidance for the development of heavy rainfall. On 31 March, heavy rainfall occurred on the lee side of the Ko’olau Mountain Range with maximum rainfall at the summit as a convective line followed by an intense storm moved inland along the south shore and continued to advance northward through the range. As the convective cells moved across the mountain range, radar echoes intensified with deeper echo tops and higher vertically integrated liquid water content.
Policy Diffusion as a Geographical Expansion of the Scope of Political Conflict: Same-Sex Marriage Bans in the 1990s
Authors: Haider-Markel Donald P. 
Published: January 2011

AbstractIn 1996, more than half of the states considered legislation banning same-sex marriages. This article examines these events as a geographic expansion of the scope of the conflict rather than as traditional state-centered policy innovation. I argue that the diffusion of same-sex marriage bans was determined by the organized efforts of advocacy coalitions and internal state characteristics rather than by regional diffusion or communication among policy experts. I use state-level data collected from activists, media accounts, and official sources to establish the organized efforts to ban same-sex marriage. I then develop and empirically test a model of policy diffusion to predict both state consideration and adoption of policies banning same-sex marriage. The findings suggest that the diffusion of these policies is best explained by the presence of an organized national campaign by conservative religious groups, the local resources of interest groups, and other internal state characteristics rather than by regional diffusion patterns. I also find that the influence of state characteristics may vary during the policymaking process.
The Impact of Social Diversity and Racial Attitudes on Social Welfare Policy
Authors: Johnson Martin 
Published: January 2011

AbstractStudents of race and politics in the U.S. have long asserted a relationship between the racial composition and public policies of states. A related but distinct line of research demonstrates a strong connection between white attitudes about the perceived recipients of social welfare spending—blacks and members of other minority groups—and support for these programs. This article bridges these lines of scholarship by asking how racial diversity shapes aggregate attitudes about minorities in the American states and how these opinions in turn influence welfare spending. Using public opinion data from the General Social Survey (1974–96), I find that diversity has a direct influence on welfare policy in the states, as well as an indirect influence through shaping majority-group racial attitudes. Diversity and racial attitudes are found to have these effects even when controlling for factors traditionally used to explain variation in state spending levels, such as party competition, lower class mobilization, ideology, and state capacity.
Following a False Trail: The Hunt for White Backlash in Kentucky's 1996 Desegregation Vote
Authors: Voss D. Stephen , Miller Penny 
Published: January 2011

AbstractWe test the “white backlash” hypothesis—that white racial conservatism grows as black population density increases—using methods and data parallel to those upon which the concept was originally developed. A 1996 Kentucky referendum vote to strike school segregation from the state constitution serves as a rare measure of “old-fashioned racism.” We estimate the white vote for segregation using ecological inference techniques, and show that the county-level pattern of white segregationist support for this referendum actually runs in the opposite direction from that predicted by the backlash hypothesis. Precinct-level Kentucky analysis and county-level analysis of a related South Carolina referendum validate our finding against the white backlash hypothesis. We conclude that the frequent failure of recent research to find white backlash, especially among urban voters, therefore cannot be explained away by the absence of measures of old-fashioned racism. Rather, the geographical pattern of American racial conservatism seems to have changed since the successes of the Civil Rights movement.
Placing State Supreme Courts in State Politics
Authors: Brace Paul , Hall Melinda Gann , Langer Laura 
Published: January 2011

AbstractThis essay places state supreme courts in state politics by tracking some of the major lines of research on these important institutions, documenting the importance of state supreme courts, and illustrating important variations among state supreme courts on a host of factors, including docket composition, the exercise of judicial review, litigant patterns, and turnover rates. Through analyses of original data on separation-of-powers relationships in the abortion controversy, it also provides a brief empirical demonstration of how courts influence and are influenced by the political and policy processes operating in the states, and how comparative research helps resolve fundamental controversies in political science. We conclude that there is a remarkable and unfortunate asymmetry between the political importance of state supreme courts and the attention given to them by the research community. Moreover, by capitalizing on the analytical advantages of comparative state judicial politics scholarship, scholars will be able to solve some of the most complex puzzles in the study of state politics.
The Politics of Torts: Explaining Litigation Rates in the American States
Authors: Yates Jeff , Davis Belinda Creel , Glick Henry R. 
Published: January 2011

AbstractDebate rages over whether Americans have become enormously litigious, but little research considers why Americans file cases in the first place or adequately considers rates of litigation over time. This article examines tort filings in ten representative states over a 20-year period and analyzes the impact of social, political, policy, and legal system factors that may account for case filings. We find that filing rates vary substantially over time within individual states, which adds to cautions about claims of general litigiousness. Our analysis also demonstrates that social complexity, opportunities for political participation, and social policy are the most important explanations for variations in filing rates. The tendency of Americans to use the courts to resolve disputes is related to the milieu in which they live and how the political system responds to demands for participation and social support.
Street-level Bureaucrats, Administrative Power and the Manipulation of Federal Social Security Disability Programs
Authors: Keiser Lael R. 
Published: January 2011

AbstractThe implementation of federal programs provides an opportunity for state officials to impose their own interests on the policy process. The federal government delegates administrative power to the states to implement federal programs. Because elected state officials serve as one of the principals to street-level bureaucrats, these officials should be able to influence these street-level agents to implement policy to further state needs. However, very little research has examined whether street-level bureaucrats act strategically to benefit state interests as they implement policy. In this article, I use Seemingly Unrelated Regression analysis to examine variation in award rates across the 50 states in two federal disability programs, SSI and SSDI. My findings reveal that program incentives lead state street-level bureaucrats to act strategically in implementing these programs. State bureaucrats reduce access to federal programs when state governments incur costs associated with those programs, especially under conditions of fiscal stress.
Moderating Backlash: Racial Mobilization, Partisan Coalitions, and Public Policy in the American States
Authors: Krueger Brian S. , Mueller Paul D. 
Published: January 2011

AbstractIn general, state public policy responds positively to increased electoral participation among social groups. However, consistent with the racial threat hypothesis, this pattern appears to reverse itself for African Americans: as blacks turn out in greater proportions they actually incur decreasing policy responsiveness. Another research tradition suggests that political parties play a crucial mediating role between interests and government. Thus, African Americans may be able to counter this backlash effect by increasing their participation in the Democratic partisan coalition. Using a variety of pooled time series techniques, we demonstrate the general robustness of the racial backlash model but find that when African Americans increase their contribution to the Democratic coalition, state policy responds better to their interests. This result demonstrates the centrality of parties for democratic responsiveness.
The Impact of State Campaign Finance Laws
Authors: Gross Donald A. , Goidel Robert K. 
Published: January 2011

AbstractWe compare spending in concurrent senate and gubernatorial elections to determine if campaign finance laws influence candidate campaign spending. We find that candidate-based public financing combined with spending limits influence candidate spending, but the effect is largely dependent on the level of the limits. We find that contribution limits do not influence candidate spending. If the goal of reform is to reduce candidate spending—or to affect electoral competition or voter turnout by reducing candidate spending—our results suggest that state public financing is more likely to be successful than contributions limits.
Misreport of Vote Choice in U.S. Senate and Gubernatorial Elections
Authors: Carsey Thomas M. , Jackson Robert A. 
Published: January 2011

AbstractPrevious research has found strong evidence of a pro-winner vote misreport bias in the National Election Studies (NES). We extend this research by examining the reported vote for U.S. senator and governor in the 1990, 1992, and 1994 NES and in the 1990 and 1992 Senate Election Studies (SES). We find continuing evidence of a pro-winner misreport problem. In contrast, we uncover no significant pro-winner bias in state exit polls conducted by the media. We test two commonly asserted explanations of the source of this misreport bias, but find no evidence that the problem is related either to the number of days between the election and the survey interview or to incumbency. Finally, we test a model of the misreport process that suggests that less politically engaged and less politically sophisticated voters are most likely to over-report support for the winner. Our results here are mixed; we find some evidence that Independents are more likely to misreport in favor of the winner, but we find no evidence that education level affects the likelihood of misreporting.
The Impact of a Low-Wage Strategy on State Economic Development
Authors: Hansen Susan B. 
Published: January 2011

AbstractThe American states have pursued several different approaches to create jobs and foster economic development, including reducing the social cost of labor. I show that state labor costs are markedly lower in 1995 than in 1970, based on a factor analysis of wages and state regulations affecting unions and the cost of labor. Corporate low-wage strategies, international and interstate competition for business, and the growing weakness of labor unions are posited to account for this. But regression analysis shows that lower labor costs have had no significant impact on rates of job creation since 1980, have reduced unemployment only slightly, and have been less effective in the latter respect than either tax cuts or other economic development policies. Moreover, reducing labor costs can have adverse consequences, such as rising income inequality, slower growth in gross state product and productivity, and a less competitive position for states in the international economy.
Sink or Swim: What Happened to California's Bilingual Students after Proposition 227?
Authors: Bali Valentina A. 
Published: January 2011

AbstractProposition 227, passed by California voters in 1998, aimed to dismantle bilingual programs in public schools and to replace them with English-only programs. Bilingual education, a long-standing program in California, involved mostly Hispanic students of limited English skills who were taught initially in their native language, and then were gradually transitioned into English-only classes. Using individual-level data from one southern California school district, I find that in 1998, before Proposition 227, limited-English-proficient (LEP) students enrolled in bilingual classes had lower scores in reading than LEP students who were not enrolled in bilingual classes, and who were, in general, more proficient in English. In math, bilingual students had test scores as good as those of non-bilingual LEPs. But in 1999, after Proposition 227, the same set of bilingual students had reading and math scores that were no worse than those of non-bilingual LEPs. Proposition 227, which interrupted bilingual programs and emphasized English instruction, did not set bilingual LEP students back relative to non-bilingual LEPs, and it may have even benefited them.
Whose Variance Is It Anyway? Interpreting Empirical Models with State-Level Data
Authors: Gill Jeff 
Published: January 2011

AbstractResearchers commonly apply inferential statistical procedures to population data from the 50 U.S. states as if they were estimating population parameters from sample statistics. This method is incorrect because with population data there is no need to make inferences about quantities that are already known. Instead, authors should simply provide evidence that their specified model provides a good fit to the data. Summary measures of variance as well as the full engine of Bayesian statistics perform this function. This research note demonstrates why the current practice of making inferences from population data with the null hypothesis significance test is wrong, provides some specific examples of problems in the literature, and gives prescriptive advice about correctly assessing and conveying empirical model results.
A Note on the Dynamics and Idiosyncrasies of Gubernatorial Popularity
Authors: Adams Greg D. , Squire Peverill 
Published: January 2011

AbstractWe examine the effects of state economic conditions on gubernatorial popularity using time-series analyses of gubernatorial approval ratings for 10 states. We find that although unemployment rates affect some governors' approval ratings, the dynamics of gubernatorial approval are highly idiosyncratic. Our results suggest that a single model may be inadequate to describe patterns of public approval, even for candidates elected to similar offices. The unique personal characteristics of the officeholder, as well as differing constituent expectations, may be at least as important as the general economic variables typically included in models of public approval.
On the Outside Looking In: Lobbyists' Perspectives on the Effects of State Legislative Term Limits
Authors: Moncrief Gary , Thompson Joel A. 
Published: January 2011

AbstractTerm limit laws for state legislators now exist in 19 states. While these laws were passed as early as 1990, they have only recently actually forced legislators from office. Prior to the 2000 elections, only two states (California and Maine) had experienced virtually complete legislative turnover in at least one chamber as a result of term limits. Nine other states have had at least one cohort of legislators forced out of office. Now that a significant portion of these legislative bodies has been replaced by term limits, we can begin to examine the consequences of this reform. We report findings from a survey of lobbyists in five term-limits states. We find strong consensus among these lobbyists that term limits have caused the state political influence structure to shift away from the legislature and toward the governor, administrative agencies, and interest groups. With regard to the impact on internal operations and procedures of the legislature, we discover considerable variation across states, variation that, in part, is related to legislative professionalism.
Accountability in a Federal System: The Governor, the President, and Economic Expectations
Authors: Orth Deborah A. 
Published: January 2011

AbstractHow do people hold elected officials accountable for expected economic conditions in a system of government in which jurisdiction and responsibility are divided such as they are in the United States? Due to the president's visibility, people may hold all elected officials of the president's party responsible for economic conditions. Or, people may be able to differentiate between state and national economic conditions and jurisdictional responsibilities and hold governors of either party accountable for state economic conditions. I use ordered probit to analyze a pooled model of 13 individual-level mid-1990s Michigan opinion surveys and find no evidence that individuals consistently rely on a presidency-centered referenda model of cognition when evaluating the state's governor. Instead, gubernatorial performance ratings reflect an incumbent-centered accountability model. The evidence also suggests jurisdictional accountability, where gubernatorial evaluations are influenced by state economic expectations, but not by national economic expectations.
Trickle Up Political Socialization: The Impact of Kids Voting USA on Voter Turnout in Kansas
Authors: Linimon Amy , Joslyn Mark R. 
Published: January 2011

AbstractCan a school curriculum influence the political socialization of students? And if so, can such socialization “trickle up” to influence the political socialization of these students' parents? We examine the effects of Kids Voting USA in Kansas to answer these questions. By the 1996 presidential election, Kids Voting was implemented in several Kansas counties. Consequently, we are able to compare turnout—and change in turnout across different elections—in such counties with those that did not adopt the program. After controlling for a variety of county-level characteristics that are likely to affect turnout, regression analyses indicate a positive and significant contribution of Kids Voting to county turnout, and change in turnout across elections. We address the practical implications of this study and emphasize its theoretical contribution to theories of political socialization.
Explaining State Internet Sales Taxation: New Economy, Old-Fashioned Interest Group Politics
Authors: Best Samuel J. , Teske Paul 
Published: January 2011

AbstractRetail sales on the Internet are growing at a rapid pace. Some states have tapped into this potential revenue source with Internet sales taxes, while others have not. What are the factors that lead states to make these policy decisions? Using a 50-state comparative research design, we find that interest groups, as much as the partisan and economic factors emphasized in previous research on state tax policy, are correlated with adoptions of these state tax innovations. Furthermore, this interest group influence is not limited to a single industry, but comes from self-interested groups representing both sides of the issue, including newly emerging technology interests.
Elite Interviews and State Politics Research
Authors: Beamer Glenn 
Published: January 2011

AbstractElite interviews have long been a staple of state politics research. Improved information technology facilitates the use of elite interviews, but also underscores the need for attending to their design, operationalization, and analysis. This essay provides a framework for developing, conducting, and interpreting elite interviews, and suggests means to enhance the validity and reliability of findings by considering instrumentation, sampling, data collection, and transcript analysis.
The Christian Right and Public Policy: Social Movement Elites as Institutional Activists
Authors: Wald Kenneth D. , Corey Jeffrey C. 
Published: January 2011

AbstractWhen social movement activists achieve an institutional position at the policymaking table, does their political behavior moderate with the norms of that institution? We explore this question by examining the behavior and attitudes of Christian Right activists appointed to serve on the 1997-98 Florida Constitutional Revision Commission (CRC). This commission was marked by an unusually high degree of conflict between three factions—Democrats, business-oriented Republicans, and socially conservative Republicans associated with the Christian Right. We found that by maintaining an outsider, purist political style, the commissioners with Christian Right ties were ineffective, isolated, and estranged from the mainstream Republicans on the CRC. The former remained true to their outsider status, behaving more like purist social movement activists than public officials with professional orientations. While these Christian Right elites adapted outwardly to some institutional norms for strategic purposes, they did not assimilate wholly to the demands of conventional political interchange.