bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Sources of Spread in Multimodel Projections of the Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance
Authors: Yoshimori Masakazu , Abe-Ouchi Ayako 
Published: August 2011

Abstract
The many studies investigating the future change of the Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance from climate model output exhibit a wide range of projections. This study makes projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report and explores the underlying physical processes behind their spread. The projections are made for three Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, B1, A1B, and A2, with a focused analysis on the A1B scenario. The estimate in the study suggests that about 60% of the intermodel difference in the twenty-first-century ablation rate change under the A1B scenario is accounted for by the global annual mean temperature change. In the current study, other processes responsible for the spread in model projections are investigated after excluding this global effect. A negative correlation (−0.60) was found between the simulated summer temperature bias over the Greenland Ice Sheet under present-day conditions and the ablation rate increase during the twenty-first century, partly because maximum warming over ice is approximately limited to the melting temperature. Models with relatively larger ablation rate increases during the twenty-first century exhibit greater warming with a greater reduction in sea ice cover. The authors found that these models also simulate relatively cooler summer conditions in high latitudes with more sea ice cover in the late twentieth century, suggesting the importance of sea ice feedbacks. Also, an anticorrelation (−0.75) is found between weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and the ablation rate increase during the twenty-first century. The relation in the model spread between the twenty-first-century ablation change and the late twentieth-century climate conditions is then used to investigate the impact of model bias on the multimodel ensemble of projections. The result suggests that the models’ underestimation of present-day sea ice concentration near the coast of Greenland may cause an underestimation of future Greenland Ice Sheet ablation rate increase in the ensemble projection. These results emphasize the importance of correctly simulating present-day conditions and understanding the underlying multiple physical processes behind the intermodel difference to reduce the uncertainty in future projections.
Spatial Variation in Turbulent Heat Fluxes in Drake Passage
Authors: Jiang ChuanLi , Gille Sarah T. , Sprintall Janet , Yoshimura Kei , Kanamitsu Masao 
Published: August 2011

High-resolution underway shipboard atmospheric and oceanic observations collected in Drake Passage from 2000 to 2009 are used to examine the spatial scales of turbulent heat fluxes and flux-related state variables. The magnitude of the seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) south of the Polar Front is found to be twice that north of the front, but the seasonal cycles of the turbulent heat fluxes show no differences on either side of the Polar Front. Frequency spectra of the turbulent heat fluxes and related variables are red, with no identifiable spectral peaks. SST and air temperature are coherent over a range of frequencies corresponding to periods between ~10 h and 2 days, with SST leading air temperature. The spatial decorrelation length scales of the sensible and latent heat fluxes calculated from two-day transects are 65 ± 6 km and 80 ± 6 km, respectively. The scale of the sensible heat flux is consistent with the decorrelation scale for air–sea temperature differences (70 ± 6 km) rather than either SST (153 ± 2 km) or air temperature (138 ± 4 km) alone. These scales are dominated by the Polar Front. When the Polar Front region is excluded, the decorrelation scales are 10–20 km, consistent with the first baroclinic Rossby radius. These eddy scales are often unrepresented in the available gridded heat flux products. The Drake Passage ship measurements are compared with four recently available gridded turbulent heat flux products: the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts high-resolution operational product in support of the Year of Coordinated Observing Modeling and Forcasting Tropical Convection (ECMWF-YOTC), ECMWF interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim), the Drake Passage reanalysis downscaling (DPRD10) regional product, and the objectively analyzed air–sea fluxes (OAFlux). The decorrelation length scales of the air–sea temperature difference, wind speed, and turbulent heat fluxes from these four products are significantly larger than those determined from shipboard measurements.
Quantifying the Predictive Skill in Long-Range Forecasting. Part I: Coarse-Grained Predictions in a Simple Ocean Model
Authors: Giannakis Dimitrios , Majda Andrew J. 
Published: August 2011

AbstractAn information-theoretic framework is developed to assess the long-range coarse-grained predictive skill in a perfect-model environment. Central to the scheme is the notion that long-range forecasting involves regimes; specifically, that the appropriate initial data for ensemble prediction is the affiliation of the system to a coarse-grained partition of phase space representing regimes. The corresponding ensemble prediction probabilities, which are computable using ergodic signals from the model, are then used to quantify through relative entropy the information beyond climatology in the partition. As an application, the authors study the predictability of circulation regimes in an equivalent barotropic double-gyre ocean model using a partition algorithm based on K-means clustering and running-average coarse graining. Besides the established rolled up and extensional phases of the eastward jet, optimal partitions for triennial-scale forecasts feature a jet configuration dominated by the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of the streamfunction, as well as phases in which the jet interacts with eddies in higher EOFs. Due to mixing dynamics, the skill beyond three-state models is lost for forecast lead times longer than three years, but significant skill remains in the energy and the leading principal component of the streamfunction for septennial forecasts.
Empirical Downscaling of High-Resolution Regional Precipitation from Large-Scale Reanalysis Fields
Authors: Nicholas Robert E. , Battisti David S. 
Published: August 2011

AbstractThis study describes an EOF-based technique for statistical downscaling of high-spatial-resolution monthly-mean precipitation from large-scale reanalysis circulation fields. The method is demonstrated and evaluated for four widely separated locations: the southeastern United States, the upper Colorado River basin, China’s Jiangxi Province, and central Europe. For each location, the EOF-based downscaling models successfully reproduce the observed annual cycle while eliminating the biases seen in NCEP–NCAR reanalysis precipitation. They also frequently reproduce the monthly precipitation anomalies with greater fidelity than is seen in the precipitation field derived directly from reanalysis, and they outperform a suite of regional climate models over the two U.S. locations. With the relatively high skill achieved over a range of climate regimes, this technique may be a viable alternative to numerical downscaling of monthly-mean precipitation for many locations.
A FIRE-ACE/SHEBA Case Study of Mixed-Phase Arctic Boundary Layer Clouds: Entrainment Rate Limitations on Rapid Primary Ice Nucleation Processes
Authors: Fridlind Ann M. , van Diedenhoven Bastiaan , Ackerman Andrew S. , Avramov Alexander , Mrowiec Agnieszka , Morrison Hugh , Zuidema Paquita , Shupe Matthew D. 
Published: August 2011

Abstract
Observations of long-lived mixed-phase Arctic boundary layer clouds on 7 May 1998 during the First International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) Regional Experiment (FIRE)–Arctic Cloud Experiment (ACE)/Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) campaign provide a unique opportunity to test understanding of cloud ice formation. Under the microphysically simple conditions observed (apparently negligible ice aggregation, sublimation, and multiplication), the only expected source of new ice crystals is activation of heterogeneous ice nuclei (IN) and the only sink is sedimentation. Large-eddy simulations with size-resolved microphysics are initialized with IN number concentration NIN measured above cloud top, but details of IN activation behavior are unknown. If activated rapidly (in deposition, condensation, or immersion modes), as commonly assumed, IN are depleted from the well-mixed boundary layer within minutes. Quasi-equilibrium ice number concentration Ni is then limited to a small fraction of overlying NIN that is determined by the cloud-top entrainment rate we divided by the number-weighted ice fall speed at the surface υf. Because wc &lt; 1 cm s−1 and υf &gt; 10 cm s−1, Ni/NIN ≪ 1. Such conditions may be common for this cloud type, which has implications for modeling IN diagnostically, interpreting measurements, and quantifying sensitivity to increasing NIN (when we/υf &lt; 1, entrainment rate limitations serve to buffer cloud system response). To reproduce observed ice crystal size distributions and cloud radar reflectivities with rapidly consumed IN in this case, the measured above-cloud NIN must be multiplied by approximately 30. However, results are sensitive to assumed ice crystal properties not constrained by measurements. In addition, simulations do not reproduce the pronounced mesoscale heterogeneity in radar reflectivity that is observed.
Does the Madden–Julian Oscillation Influence Wintertime Atmospheric Rivers and Snowpack in the Sierra Nevada?
Authors: Guan Bin , Waliser Duane E. , Molotch Noah P. , Fetzer Eric J. , Neiman Paul J. 
Published: August 2011

The relationships between the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), activities of atmospheric rivers (ARs), and the resulting snowpack accumulation in the California Sierra Nevada, are analyzed based on 13 yr of observations for water years 1998–2010 inclusive. The AR activity, as measured by the number of high-impact ARs, mean per event snow water equivalent (SWE) changes, and the cumulative SWE changes, is shown to be significantly augmented when MJO convection is active over the far western tropical Pacific (phase 6 on the Wheeler–Hendon diagram). The timing of high-impact ARs (early- versus late-winter occurrences) also appears to be regulated by the MJO. Total snow accumulation in the Sierra Nevada (i.e., AR and non-AR accumulation combined) is most significantly increased when MJO convection is active over the eastern Indian Ocean (phase 3), and reduced when MJO convection is active over the Western Hemisphere (phase 8), with the magnitude of the daily anomaly being roughly half the cold-season mean daily snow accumulation over many snow sensor sites. The positive (negative) SWE anomaly is accompanied by a cold (warm) surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly and an onshore (offshore) water vapor flux anomaly. The contrasting SAT anomaly patterns associated with MJO phases 3 and 8, revealed by the in situ observations, are more realistically represented in the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder retrievals than in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim reanalysis.
A 5-yr Climatology of Tornado False Alarms
Authors: Brotzge J. , Erickson S. , Brooks H. 
Published: August 2011

Abstract
During 2008 approximately 75% of tornado warnings issued by the National Weather Service (NWS) were false alarms. This study investigates some of the climatological trends in the issuance of false alarms and highlights several factors that impact false-alarm ratio (FAR) statistics. All tornadoes and tornado warnings issued across the continental United States between 2000 and 2004 were analyzed, and the data were sorted by hour of the day, month of the year, geographical region and weather forecast office (WFO), the number of tornadoes observed on a day in which a false alarm was issued, distance of the warned area from the nearest NWS radar, county population density, and county area. Analysis of the tornado false-alarm data identified six specific trends. First, the FAR was highest during nonpeak storm periods, such as during the night and during the winter and late summer. Second, the FAR was strongly tied to the number of tornadoes warned per day. Nearly one-third of all false alarms were issued on days when no tornadoes were confirmed within the WFO’s county warning area. Third, the FAR varied with distance from radar, with significantly lower estimates found beyond 150 km from radar. Fourth, the FAR varied with population density. For warnings within 50 km of an NWS radar, FAR increased with population density; however, for warnings beyond 150 km from radar, FAR decreased regardless of population density. Fifth, the FAR also varied as a function of county size. The FAR was generally highest for the smallest counties; the FAR was ~80% for all counties less than 1000 km2 regardless of distance from radar. Finally, the combined effects of distance from radar, population density, and county size led to significant variability across geographic regions.
Evaluation of IRI’s Seasonal Climate Forecasts for the Extreme 15% Tails
Authors: Barnston Anthony G. , Mason Simon J. 
Published: August 2011

Abstract
This paper evaluates the quality of real-time seasonal probabilistic forecasts of the extreme 15% tails of the climatological distribution of temperature and precipitation issued by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) from 1998 through 2009. IRI’s forecasts have been based largely on a two-tiered multimodel dynamical prediction system. Forecasts of the 15% extremes have been consistent with the corresponding probabilistic forecasts for the standard tercile-based categories; however, nonclimatological forecasts for the extremes have been issued sparingly. Results indicate positive skill in terms of resolution and discrimination for the extremes forecasts, particularly in the tropics. Additionally, with the exception of some overconfidence for extreme above-normal precipitation and a strong cool bias for temperature, reliability analyses suggest generally good calibration. Skills for temperature are generally higher than those for precipitation, due both to correct forecasts of increased probabilities of extremely high (above the upper 15th percentile) temperatures associated with warming trends, and to better discrimination of interannual variability. However, above-normal temperature extremes were substantially underforecast, as noted also for the IRI’s tercile forecasts.
Comparison between Low-Flash and Non-Lightning-Producing Convective Areas within a Mature Mesoscale Convective System
Authors: Palucki Jennifer L. , Biggerstaff Michael I. , MacGorman Donald R. , Schuur Terry 
Published: August 2011

Abstract
Two small multicellular convective areas within a larger mesoscale convective system that occurred on 20 June 2004 were examined to assess vertical motion, radar reflectivity, and dual-polarimetric signatures between flash and non-flash-producing convection. Both of the convective areas had similar life cycles and general structures. Yet, one case produced two flashes, one of which may have been a cloud-to-ground flash, while the other convective area produced no flashes. The non-lightning-producing case had a higher peak reflectivity up to 6 km. Hence, if a reflectivity-based threshold were used as a precursor to lightning, it would have yielded misleading results. The peak upward motion in the mixed-phase region for both cases was 8 m s−1 or less. However, the lightning-producing storm contained a wider region where the updraft exceeded 5 m s−1. Consistent with the broader updraft region, the lightning-producing case exhibited a distinct graupel signature over a broader region than the non-lightning-producing convection. Slight differences in vertical velocity affected the quantity of graupel present in the mixed-phase region, thereby providing the subtle differences in polarimetric signatures that were associated with lightning activity. If the results here are generally applicable, then graupel volume may be a better precursor to a lightning flash than radar reflectivity. With the dual-polarimetric upgrade to the national observing radar network, it should be possible to better distinguish between lightning- and non-lightning-producing areas in weak convective systems that pose a potential safety hazard to the public.
Surface Fronts, Troughs, and Baroclinic Zones in the Great Lakes Region
Authors: Payer Melissa , Laird Neil F. , Maliawco Richard J. , Hoffman Eric G. 
Published: August 2011

Abstract
The temporal frequency and spatial distributions of fronts and troughs in the Great Lakes region from a 6-yr period (January 2000–December 2005) are presented. Frontal frequencies indicated that cold fronts were the most common, followed by stationary, warm, and occluded fronts, in that order. The variation in the annual frequency of all front types was small throughout the period. Troughs were present more frequently than any front type and exhibited greater variability of annual frequency. An investigation of the relation of fronts and troughs to surface baroclinic zones found that approximately 54% of analyzed fronts were associated with a moderate potential temperature gradient of at least 3.5°C (100 km)−1. Nearly 10% of all fronts were associated with a strong baroclinic zone having a potential temperature gradient of at least 7.0°C (100 km)−1. Moderate or strong baroclinic zones were associated with about 34% of the analyzed troughs in the Great Lakes region and this relationship was further examined for three different trough classifications (i.e., synoptic, subsynoptic, and mesoscale). This study is one of very few to present the climatological variability of surface fronts of all types across a region and the results provide useful insights into the current operational determination of analyzed surface fronts and troughs by quantifying their association with surface baroclinic zones in the Great Lakes region.
Impacts of the High-Resolution Sea Surface Temperature Distribution on Modeled Snowfall Formation over the Yellow Sea during a Cold-Air Outbreak
Authors: Cha Yeong-Min , Lee Hwa-Woon , Lee Soon-Hwan 
Published: August 2011

Abstract
High-resolution sea surface temperature (SST) products and idealized SST distributions were used to simulate snowfall over the Yellow Sea during 30–31 December 2007 using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). Large differences were found between the SST distributions in the New Generation Sea Surface Temperature (NGSST) and Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis (OSTIA) datasets near the Yellow Sea coast. Idealized SST datasets were defined to examine the influence of this difference in detail. The SST differences influenced the cloud streets and resultant snowfall formation. In simulations with the idealized SST distributions, convection developed and intensified later when the SST gradient was increased. In addition, the intensity of cloud streets was enhanced along the center of the flow. The simulations using the NGSST dataset showed widely distributed cloud streets and snowfall and heavier snowfall over the western Korean Peninsula, while those using the OSTIA dataset showed a concentrated distribution of cloud streets and snowfall along the center of airflow and more intense snowfall over North Jeolla Province, Korea, than in other regions. Comparing real SST products with observations qualitatively and quantitatively, OSTIA is found to have simulated the distribution and intensity of snowfall better than NGSST.
Revision of Convection and Vertical Diffusion Schemes in the NCEP Global Forecast System
Authors: Han Jongil , Pan Hua-Lu 
Published: August 2011

Abstract
A new physics package containing revised convection and planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s Global Forecast System is described. The shallow convection (SC) scheme in the revision employs a mass flux parameterization replacing the old turbulent diffusion-based approach. For deep convection, the scheme is revised to make cumulus convection stronger and deeper to deplete more instability in the atmospheric column and result in the suppression of the excessive grid-scale precipitation. The PBL model was revised to enhance turbulence diffusion in stratocumulus regions. A remarkable difference between the new and old SC schemes is seen in the heating or cooling behavior in lower-atmospheric layers above the PBL. While the old SC scheme using the diffusion approach produces a pair of layers in the lower atmosphere with cooling above and heating below, the new SC scheme using the mass-flux approach produces heating throughout the convection layers. In particular, the new SC scheme does not destroy stratocumulus clouds off the west coasts of South America and Africa as the old scheme does. On the other hand, the revised deep convection scheme, having a larger cloud-base mass flux and higher cloud tops, appears to effectively eliminate the remaining instability in the atmospheric column that is responsible for the excessive grid-scale precipitation in the old scheme. The revised PBL scheme, having an enhanced turbulence mixing in stratocumulus regions, helps prevent too much low cloud from forming. An overall improvement was found in the forecasts of the global 500-hPa height, vector wind, and continental U.S. precipitation with the revised model. Consistent with the improvement in vector wind forecast errors, hurricane track forecasts are also improved with the revised model for both Atlantic and eastern Pacific hurricanes in 2008.
Exact analysis of the bending of wide beams by a modified elastica approach
Authors: Campanile L F , Jähne R , Hasse A 
Published: August 2011

Classical beam models do not account for partial restraint of anticlastic bending and are therefore inherently inaccurate. This article proposes a modification of the exact Bernoulli–Euler equation which allows for an exact prediction of the beam's deflection without the need of two-dimensional finite element calculations. This approach offers a substantial reduction in the computational effort, especially when coupled with a fast-solving schema like the circle-arc method. Besides the description of the new method and its validation, this article offers an insight into the somewhat disregarded topic of anticlastic bending by a short review of the published theories and a selection of representative numerical results.