bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
The Rationality and Price Effects of U.S. Department of Agriculture Forecasts of Oranges
Authors: BAUR ROBERT F. , ORAZEM PETER F. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis article examines the effect of public information on the orange juice market. We investigate the rationality, information content, and price effects of U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts of the production of oranges. U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts are found to be unbiased and efficient. The first forecast contains the most new information, and subsequent reports become valuable only when freezes occur. Significant price movements occur in response to announced production in both Florida and California. However, the majority of price variations cannot be explained by these movements in supply.We are always talking about overproduction. There would not be any overproduction if we could get these oranges at a decent price to the people who … could use them. The children need them; they have so many vitamins. By keeping the price way up nobody can buy them and God knows, we get nothing for them. I sold my Valencias for 10 cents a box. I was offered 50 cents, and I thought I would hold out a little until I finally sold them for 10 cents.1
Journal Communication and Influence in Financial Research
Authors: BOROKHOVICH KENNETH A. , BRICKER ROBERT J. , SIMKINS BETTY J. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis article uses the articles and citations from a set of eight finance journals to explore interjournal citation patterns, the research interests of individual journals, each journal's influence in particular areas, areas of recent interest to finance, and the extent of interdisciplinary borrowing by finance. We find the following: two journals comprise the research core of finance research, most journals publish in a variety of research areas but are influential in a smaller number, a higher level of interest in financial markets than in corporate finance or financial institutions, and an overall low level of borrowing from outside disciplines.
Cointegration, Fractional Cointegration, and Exchange Rate Dynamics
Authors: BAILLIE RICHARD T. , BOLLERSLEV TIM 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTMultivariate tests due to Johansen (1988, 1991) as implemented by Baillie and Bollerslev (1989a) and Diebold, Gardeazabal, and Yilmaz (1994) reveal mixed evidence on whether a group of exchange rates are cointegrated. Further analysis of the deviations from the cointegrating relationship suggests that it possesses long memory and may possibly be well described as a fractionally integrated process. Hence, the influence of shocks to the equilibrium exchange rates may only vanish at very long horizons.
Dynamic Asset Allocation and the Informational Efficiency of Markets
Authors: GROSSMAN SANFORD J. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTMarkets have an allocational role; even in the absence of news about payoffs, prices change to facilitate trade and allocate resources to their best use. Allocational price changes create noise in the signal extraction process, and markets where such trading is important are markets in which we may expect to find a failure of informational efficiency. An important source of allocational trading is the use of dynamic trading strategies caused by theincomplete equitization of risks. Incomplete equitization causes trade. Trade implies the inefficiency of passive strategies, thus requiring investors to determine whether price changes are informational or allocational.
Capital Requirements for Securities Firms
Authors: DIMSON ELROY , MARSH PAUL 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTRegulatory authorities set capital requirements to cover the position risk of securities firms and to protect against losses arising from fluctuations in the value of their holdings. The requirements may be set using the comprehensive approach required by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the building‐block approach required by the European Community, or the portfolio approach required by the United Kingdom. We compare these three alternatives using a large sample of U.K. equity trading books. The portfolio approach systematically specifies larger requirements for riskier books, and vice versa. It is more efficient than the building‐block approach, and far more efficient than the comprehensive approach.
Managers of Financially Distressed Firms: Villains or Scapegoats?
Authors: KHANNA NAVEEN , POULSEN ANNETTE B. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTIn this article, we provide evidence concerning the extent to which managers are to blame when their firms become bankrupt. We study a sample of firms that file for Chapter 11 and determine the actions taken by the firms' managers during the three‐year period before the filing. We compare the sample with a control sample of firms that performed better. We suggest that the comparison provides evidence on the way managers act as their firms sink into financial trouble and whether financial distress is the result of incompetence or excessively self‐serving managerial decisions or due to factors outside of management's control. We find that managers of the Chapter 11 firms and the control firms make very similar decisions and that, on average, neither set of managers is perceived to be taking value‐reducing actions. These results do not change when we control for managerial turnover or managerial ownership. We also find that when managers are replaced in firms that eventually file for Chapter 11 protection, the market does not respond positively, regardless of whether the new managers are from inside or outside the firm. Our findings suggest that when managers are blamed for financial distress, they are serving as scapegoats.
Performance Changes Following Top Management Dismissals
Authors: DENIS DAVID J. , DENIS DIANE K. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTWe document that forced resignations of top managers are preceded by large and significant declines in operating performance and followed by large improvements in performance. However, forced resignations are rare and are due more often to external factors (e.g., blockholder pressure, takeover attempts, etc.) than to normal board monitoring. Following the management change, these firms significantly downsize their operations and are subject to a high rate of corporate control activity. Normal retirements are followed by small increases in operating income and are also subject to a slightly higher than normal incidence of postturnover corporate control activity.
Do LBO Supermarkets Charge More? An Empirical Analysis of the Effects of LBOs on Supermarket Pricing
Authors: CHEVALIER JUDITH A. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis article examines changes in supermarket prices in local markets following supermarket leveraged buyouts (LBOs). I find that prices rise following LBOs in local markets in which the LBO firm's rivals are also highly leveraged and that LBO firms have higher prices than their less leveraged rivals, suggesting that LBOs create incentives to raise prices. However, I also find that prices fall following LBOs in local markets in which rival firms have low leverage and are concentrated. These price drops are associated with LBO firms exiting the local market, suggesting that rivals attempt to “prey” on LBO chains.
The Behavior of Stock Prices Around Institutional Trades
Authors: CHAN LOUIS K. C. , LAKONISHOK JOSEF 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTAll trades executed by 37 large investment management firms from July 1986 to December 1988 are used to study the price impact and execution cost of the entire sequence (“package”) of trades that we interpret as an order. We find that market impact and trading cost are related to firm capitalization, relative package size, and, most importantly, to the identity of the management firm behind the trade. Money managers with high demands for immediacy tend to be associated with larger market impact.
Do Managerial Motives Influence Firm Risk Reduction Strategies?
Authors: MAY DON O. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis article finds evidence consistent with the hypothesis that managers consider personal risk when making decisions that affect firm risk. I find that Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) with more personal wealth vested in firm equity tend to diversify. CEOs who are specialists at the existing technology tend to buy similar technologies. When specialists have many years vested, they tend to diversify, however. Poor performance in the existing lines of business is associated with movements into new lines of business.
The World Price of Foreign Exchange Risk
Authors: DUMAS BERNARD , SOLNIK BRUNO 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTDepartures from purchasing power parity imply that different countries have different prices for goods when a common numeraire is used. Stochastic changes in exchange rates are associated with changes in these prices and constitute additional sources of risk in asset pricing models. This article investigates whether exchange rate risks are priced in international asset markets using a conditional approach that allows for time variation in the rewards for exchange rate risk. The results for equities and currencies of the world's four largest equity markets support the existence of foreign exchange risk premia.
Predicting Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market
Authors: JORION PHILIPPE 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTMeasures of volatility implied in option prices are widely believed to be the best available volatility forecasts. In this article, we examine the information content and predictive power of implied standard deviations (ISDs) derived from Chicago Mercantile Exchange options on foreign currency futures. The article finds that statistical time‐series models, even when given the advantage of “ex post” parameter estimates, are outperformed by ISDs. ISDs, however, also appear to be biased volatility forecasts. Using simulations to investigate the robustness of these results, the article finds that measurement errors and statistical problems can substantially distort inferences. Even accounting for these, however, ISDs appear to be too variable relative to future volatility.
Performance Persistence
Authors: BROWN STEPHEN J. , GOETZMANN WILLIAM N. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTWe explore performance persistence in mutual funds using absolute and relative benchmarks. Our sample, largely free of survivorship bias, indicates that relative risk‐adjusted performance of mutual funds persists; however, persistence is mostly due to funds that lag the S&P 500. A probit analysis indicates that poor performance increases the probability of disappearance. A year‐by‐year decomposition of the persistence effect demonstrates that the relative performance pattern depends upon the time period observed, and it is correlated across managers. Consequently, it is due to a common strategy that is not captured by standard stylistic categories or risk adjustment procedures.
Lattice Models for Pricing American Interest Rate Claims
Authors: LI ANLONG , RITCHKEN PETER , SANKARASUBRAMANIAN L. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis article establishes efficient lattice algorithms for pricing American interest‐sensitive claims in the Heath, Jarrow, and Morton paradigm, under the assumption that the volatility structure of forward rates is restricted to a class that permits a Markovian representation of the term structure. The class of volatilities that permits this representation is quite large and imposes no severe restrictions on the structure for the spot rate volatility. The algorithm exploits the Markovian property of the term structure and permits the efficient computation of all types of interest rate claims. Specific examples are provided.
The New Issues Puzzle
Authors: LOUGHRAN TIM , RITTER JAY R. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTCompanies issuing stock during 1970 to 1990, whether an initial public offering or a seasoned equity offering, have been poor long‐run investments for investors. During the five years after the issue, investors have received average returns of only 5 percent per year for companies going public and only 7 percent per year for companies conducting a seasoned equity offer. Book‐to‐market effects account for only a modest portion of the low returns. An investor would have had to invest 44 percent more money in the issuers than in nonissuers of the same size to have the same wealth five years after the offering date.
Size and Book‐to‐Market Factors in Earnings and Returns
Authors: FAMA EUGENE F. , FRENCH KENNETH R. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTWe study whether the behavior of stock prices, in relation to size and book‐to‐market‐equity (BE/ME), reflects the behavior of earnings. Consistent with rational pricing, high BE/ME signals persistent poor earnings and low BE/ME signals strong earnings. Moreover, stock prices forecast the reversion of earnings growth observed after firms are ranked on size and BE/ME. Finally, there are market, size, and BE/ME factors in earnings like those in returns. The market and size factors in earnings help explain those in returns, but we find no link between BE/ME factors in earnings and returns.
Portfolio Inefficiency and the Cross‐section of Expected Returns
Authors: KANDEL SHMUEL , STAMBAUGH ROBERT F. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThe Capital Asset Pricing Model implies that (i) the market portfolio is efficient and (ii) expected returns are linearly related to betas. Many do not view these implications as separate, since either implies the other, but we demonstrate that either can hold nearly perfectly while the other fails grossly. If the index portfolio is inefficient, then the coefficients and from an ordinary least squares regression of expected returns on betas can equal essentially any values and bear no relation to the index portfolio's mean‐variance location. That location does determine the outcome of a mean‐beta regression fitted by generalized least squares.
Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices: Evidence from the Futures Term Structure
Authors: BESSEMBINDER HENDRIK , COUGHENOUR JAY F. , SEGUIN PAUL J. , SMOLLER MARGARET MONROE 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTWe use the term structure of futures prices to test whether investors anticipate mean reversion in spot asset prices. The empirical results indicate mean reversion in each market we examine. For agricultural commodities and crude oil the magnitude of the estimated mean reversion is large; for example, point estimates indicate that 44 percent of a typical spot oil price shock is expected to be reversed over the subsequent eight months. For metals, the degree of mean reversion is substantially less, but still statistically significant. We detect only weak evidence of mean reversion in financial asset prices.
Interest Rates as Options
Authors: BLACK FISCHER 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTSince people can hold currency at a zero nominal interest rate, the nominal short rate cannot be negative. The real interest rate can be and has been negative, since low risk real investment opportunities like filling in the Mississippi delta do not guarantee positive returns. The inflation rate can be and has been negative, most recently (in the United States) during the Great Depression. The nominal short rate is the “shadow real interest rate” (as defined by the investment opportunity set) plus the inflation rate, or zero, whichever is greater. Thus the nominal short rate is an option. Longer term interest rates are always positive, since the future short rate may be positive even when the current short rate is zero. We can easily build this option element into our interest rate trees for backward induction or Monte Carlo simulation: just create a distribution that allows negative nominal rates, and then replace each negative rate with zero.
Corporate Control, Portfolio Choice, and the Decline of Banking
Authors: GORTON GARY , ROSEN RICHARD 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTIn the 1980s, U.S. banks became systematically less profitable and riskier as nonbank competition eroded the profitability of banks' traditional activities. Bank failures rose exponentially during this decade. The leading explanation for the persistence of these trends centers on fixed‐rate deposit insurance: the insurance gives bank equityholders an incentive to take on risk when the value of bank charters falls. We propose and test an alternative explanation based on corporate control considerations. We show that managerial entrenchment played a more important role than did the moral hazard associated with deposit insurance in explaining the recent behavior of the banking industry.
The Long‐Run Negative Drift of Post‐Listing Stock Returns
Authors: DHARAN BALA G. , IKENBERRY DAVID L. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTAfter firms move trading in their stock to the American or New York Stock Exchanges, stock returns are generally poor. Although many listing firms issue equity around the time of listing, post‐listing performance is not entirely explained by the equity issuance puzzle. Similar to the conclusions regarding other long‐run phenomena, poor post‐listing performance appears related to managers timing their application for listing. Managers of smaller firms, where initial listing requirements may be more binding, tend to apply for listing before a decline in performance. Poor post‐listing performance is not observed in larger firms.
The Errors in the Variables Problem in the Cross‐Section of Expected Stock Returns
Authors: KIM DONGCHEOL 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTRecent research has documented the failure of market beta to capture the cross‐section of expected returns within the context of a two‐pass estimation methodology. However, the two‐pass methodology suffers from the errors‐in‐variables (EIV) problem that could attenuate the apparent significance of market beta. This article provides a new correction for the EIV problem that is robust to conditional heteroscedasticity. After the correction, I find more support for the role of market beta and less support for the role of firm size in explaining the cross‐section of expected returns. While the EIV correction leads to a diminished role of firm size, the size variable remains a significant force in explaining the cross‐section of expected returns.
The Allocation of Informed Trading Across Related Markets: An Analysis of the Impact of Changes in Equity‐Option Margin Requirements
Authors: MAYHEW STEWART , SARIN ATULYA , SHASTRI KULDEEP 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTWe examine the impact of changes in equity‐option margin requirements on the liquidity of options and underlying stock markets. We find that the decrease in margin was associated with an increase in spreads and trade informativeness, and a decrease in depth for the underlying stocks. In contrast, option spreads decreased indicating a change in the relative allocation of informed traders between the two markets. When the required margin was increased, no significant change was observed in the underlying stocks, but option spreads increased. Overall, our results indicate that uninformed traders are more sensitive to the margin dimension of trading costs.
Finance Research Productivity and Influence
Authors: BOROKHOVICH KENNETH A. , BRICKER ROBERT J. , BRUNARSKI KELLY R. , SIMKINS BETTY J. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis study examines differences in finance research productivity and influence across 661 academic institutions over the five‐year period from 1989 through 1993. We find that 40 institutions account for over 50 percent of all articles published by 16 leading journals over the five‐year period; 66 institutions account for two‐thirds of the articles. Influence is more skewed, with as few as 20 institutions accounting for 50 percent of all citations to articles in these journals. The number of publications and publication influence increase with faculty size and academic accreditation. Prestigious business schools are associated with high publication productivity and influence.
Asset Price Dynamics and Infrequent Feedback Trades
Authors: BALDUZZI PIERLUIGI , BERTOLA GIUSEPPE , FORESI SILVERIO 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis article combines the continuous arrival of information with the infrequency of trades, and investigates the effects on asset price dynamics of positive and negative‐feedback trading. Specifically, we model an economy where stocks and bonds are traded by two types of agents: speculators who maximize expected utility, and feedback traders who mechanically respond to price changes and infrequently submit market orders. We show that positive‐feedback strategies increase the volatility of stock returns, and the response of stock prices to dividend news. Conversely, the presence of negative‐feedback traders makes stock returns less volatile, and prices less responsive to dividends.
How Much Can Marketability Affect Security Values?
Authors: LONGSTAFF FRANCIS A. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTHow marketability affects security prices is one of the most important issues in finance. We derive a simple analytical upper bound on the value of marketability using option‐pricing theory. We show that discounts for lack of marketability can potentially be large even when the illiquidity period is very short. This analysis also provides a benchmark for assessing the potential costs of exchange rules and regulatory requirements restricting the ability of investors to trade when desired. Furthermore, these results provide new insights into the relation between discounts for lack of marketability and the length of the marketability restriction.
On the Predictability of Stock Returns: An Asset‐Allocation Perspective
Authors: KANDEL SHMUEL , STAMBAUGH ROBERT F. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTSample evidence about the predictability of monthly stock returns is considered from the perspective of a risk‐averse Bayesian investor who must allocate funds between stocks and cash. The investor uses the sample evidence to update prior beliefs about the parameters in a regression of stock returns on a set of predictive variables. The regression relation can seem weak when described by usual statistical measures, but the current values of the predictive variables can exert a substantial influence on the investor's portfolio decision, even when the investor's prior beliefs are weighted against predictability.
Special Repo Rates
Authors: DUFFIE DARRELL 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis article provides the causes and symptoms of special repo rates in a competitive market for repurchase agreements. A repo rate is, in effect, an interest rate on loans collateralized by a specific instrument. A “special” is a repo rate significantly below prevailing market riskless interest rates. This article shows that specials can occur when those owning the collateral are inhibited, whether from legal or institutional requirements or from frictional costs, from supplying collateral into repurchase agreements. Specialness increases the equilibrium price for the underlying instrument by the present value of savings in borrowing costs associated with the repo specials.
Non‐Fundamental Speculation
Authors: MADRIGAL VICENTE 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTWe study an intertemporal asset market where insiders coexist with “non‐fundamental” speculators. Non‐fundamental speculators possess no private information on fundamental values of assets, but have superior knowledge about some aspect of the market environment. We show that the entry of these (rational) speculators can lead to reductions in market liquidity and in the information content of prices, even in an efficient market. Also, equilibrium trades display patterns of empirical interest. For example, speculators appear to chase trends and lose money after market “overreactions,” while insiders trade as contrarians and profit after such overreactions.