bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Defining and Measuring Investment Risk in Defined Benefit Pension Funds
Authors: Whelan S. F. 
Published: May 2011

ABSTRACTA formal definition of investment risk in actuarial investigations is given. Case studies estimating the investment risk associated with different investment strategies for defined benefit pension funds using historic market data are presented. It is shown that a few decades ago, when bond markets only extended in depth to 20-year maturities, the investment risk of investing in equities was of the same order of magnitude as the investment risk introduced by the duration mismatch from investing in bonds for immature schemes. It is shown that now, with the extension of the term of bond markets and introduction of strippable bonds, the least risk portfolio for the same pension liability is a bond portfolio of suitable duration. It is argued that investment risk voluntarily undertaken in defined benefit pension plans has grown markedly in recent decades, at a time when the ability to bear the investment risk has diminished. Investment risk in pension funds is quite different to investment risk for other investors, which leads to the possibility that current portfolios are not optimised — that is, there exist portfolios which increase the expected surplus without increasing risk. The formalising of our intuitive concept of investment risk in actuarial applications is a first step in the identification of more efficient portfolios.
The United Kingdom State Pension System: Analysis of Proposed Reforms and the Viability of Immigration-Based Policies in Response to Demographic Ageing
Authors: Kotecha K. N. 
Published: May 2011

ABSTRACTThis paper briefly examines the options for reform proposed by the Pensions Commission in 2004 to sustain the United Kingdom state pension system in response to an ageing population. It further explores, under various scenarios, the long-term viability of immigration as an alternative policy response, by developing a population projection model to determine the replacement migration levels which would be required to maintain contributions (taxes) at current levels, using population data and assumptions in the public domain. The economic and social implications of immigration-based policies are also considered. This paper does not consider the specific policy recommendations in the Commission's Second Report published in autumn 2005, which at the time of writing was undergoing an internal consultation process.The results indicate that not only does each policy option proposed by the Pensions Commission require changes which are too large for the policy to be implemented on its own, but that a combination of options is likely to require discomforting changes at the individual level when considered under plausible scenarios. Economic and social implications aside, the results also indicate that immigration is an inefficient and ineffective way of mitigating demographic ageing. The required replacement migration levels are abnormally high and too volatile for it to be considered as a viable policy alternative.
A Model for Ischaemic Heart Disease and Stroke III: Applications
Authors: Chatterjee T. , Macdonald A. S. , Waters H. R. 
Published: May 2011

ABSTRACTThis is the third in a series of three papers. In the first paper we describe a comprehensive stochastic model of an individual's lifetime that includes diagnosis with ischaemic heart disease and stroke and also the development of the major risk factors for these conditions. The second paper discusses in some detail models for changes in body mass index (BMI) and also the effects of these changes, in particular the current trend towards increasing prevalence of obesity, on diabetes, cardiovascular diseases and expected future lifetime. This paper is devoted to the following applications of the model described in the first paper:(a) quantifying the effects of smoking and of changes in smoking habits, and,(b) quantifying the effects of treatment with statins (drugs designed to lower cholesterol).
Stochastic Actuarial Modelling of a Defined-Benefit Social Security Pension Scheme: An Analytical Approach
Authors: Iyer Subramaniam 
Published: May 2011

ABSTRACTAmong the systems in place in different countries for the protection of the population against the long-term contingencies of old-age (or retirement), disability and death (or survivorship), defined-benefit social security pension schemes, i.e. social insurance pension schemes, by far predominate, despite the recent trend towards defined-contribution arrangements in social security reforms. Actuarial valuations of these schemes, unlike other branches of insurance, continue to be carried out almost exclusively on traditional, deterministic lines. Stochastic applications in this area, which have been restricted mainly to occasional special studies, have relied on the simulation technique. This paper develops an analytical model for the stochastic actuarial valuation of a social insurance pension scheme. Formulae are developed for the expected values, variances and covariances of and among the benefit expenditure and salary bill projections and their discounted values, allowing for stochastic variation in three key input factors, i.e., mortality, new entrant intake, and interest (net of salary escalation). Each deterministic output of the valuation is thus supplemented with a confidence interval, that is, a range with an attached probability. The treatment covers the premiums under the different possible financial systems for these schemes, which differ from the funding methods of private pensions, as well as the testing of the level of the Fund ratio when the future contributions schedule is pre-determined. Although it is based on a relatively simplified approach and refers only to retirement pensions, with full adjustment in line with salary escalation, the paper brings out the stochastic features of pension scheme projections and illustrates a comprehensive stochastic valuation. It is hoped that the paper will stimulate interest in further research, both of a theoretical and a practical nature, and lead to progressively increasing recourse to stochastic methods in social insurance pension scheme valuations.
Asset Allocation to Optimise Life Insurance Annuity Firm Economic Capital and Risk Adjusted Performance
Authors: Porteous Bruce T. , Tapadar Pradip 
Published: May 2011

ABSTRACTThe impact that asset allocation has on the economic capital and the risk adjusted performance of financial services firms is considered in this article. A stochastic modelling approach is used in conjunction with a life insurance annuity firm illustrative example. It is shown that traditional solvency driven deterministic approaches to financial services firm asset allocation can yield sub optimal results in terms of minimising economic capital or maximising risk adjusted performance. Our results challenge the conventional wisdom that the assets backing life insurance annuities and financial services firm capital should be invested in low risk, bond type, assets. Implications for firms, customers, capital providers and regulators are discussed.
Individual Claim Loss Reserving Conditioned by Case Estimates
Authors: Taylor Greg , McGuire Gráinne , Sullivan James 
Published: May 2011

ABSTRACTThis paper examines various forms of individual claim model for the purpose of loss reserving, with emphasis on the prediction error associated with the reserve. Each form of model is calibrated against a single extensive data set, and then used to generate a forecast of loss reserve and an estimate of its prediction error.The basis of this is a model of the “paids” type, in which the sizes of strictly positive individual finalised claims are expressed in terms of a small number of covariates, most of which are in some way functions of time. Such models can be found in the literature.The purpose of the current paper is to extend these to individual claim “incurreds” models. These are constructed by the inclusion of case estimates in the model's conditioning information. This form of model is found to involve rather more complexity in its structure.For the particular data set considered here, this did not yield any direct improvement in prediction error. However, a blending of the paids and incurreds models did so.
Tax-Efficient Pension Choices in the UK
Authors: Sweeting Paul 
Published: May 2011

ABSTRACTThe special tax treatment of United Kingdom pensions means that the decision on how to use pension assets is particularly involved. In particular, the ability to take up to 25% of pension assets as a tax-free cash lump sum at retirement, offers retirees opportunities to enhance their pension above that possible through the purchase of a compulsory purchase annuity (“CPA”). The tax-free cash lump sum can be used to buy a tax-efficient purchased life annuity (“PLA”), or in a phased retirement strategy. Income withdrawal can also be used to defer the purchase of an annuity until age 75 and, potentially, to generate a higher income. In this paper I compare the options available to retirees using stochastic modelling. I compare the expected excess pension and expected shortfall, both relative to the alternative risk-free pension available, to assess the various options. I find that if the maximum amount of tax-free cash is available to be used to enhance retirement income, then phased retirement offers the best risk/reward trade off. The advantage is greatest for higher-rate tax payers. As the level of tax-free cash falls, income withdrawal becomes more attractive to those wishing to take greater risks.
Modelling Income Protection Claim Termination Rates by Cause of Sickness III: Mortality
Authors: Ling S. Y. , Waters H. R. , Wilkie A. D. 
Published: May 2011

ABSTRACTThis is the third of three papers in which we present methods and results for the estimation and modelling of claim termination rates for Income Protection (IP) insurance, allowing for different causes of claim. In the first paper we discussed recoveries. We model the mortality of IP claimants as the sum of two components: a base mortality, which is a function of age and calendar year, but not of the specific cause of sickness or its current duration, and a cause-specific component which does depend on the current duration of the sickness. The modelling of the base mortality, using data for UK assured lives, was discussed in the second paper. In this paper we discuss the modelling of the cause-specific component of the mortality of IP claimants. We use data supplied by the Continuous Mortality Investigation relating to IP claims paid in the years 1975 to 2002.In the final section of this paper we present some numerical results for cause-specific claim annuity rates for current claims and aggregate claim termination rates based on the models developed in all three papers.
Gram-Negative Multidrug-Resistant Organism Colonization in a US Military Healthcare Facility in Iraq
Authors: Ake Julie , Scott Paul , Wortmann Glenn , Huang Xiao-Zhe , Barber Melissa , Wang Zhining , Nikolich Mikeljon , Van Echo David , Weintrob Amy , Lesho Emil 
Published: May 2011

Objective.To investigate potential sources of gram-negative multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs) in a deployed US military healthcare facility.Design.Active surveillance.Methods.Swab sampling of patients, hospital personnel, and environmental surfaces was performed before the opening of a new medical treatment facility in Iraq and then serially for the next 6 months. Multidrug resistant isolates were genotypically characterized using pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to evaluate associations between patient characteristics and MDRO carriage.Setting.Deployed US military medical facility.Results.A total of 1,348 samples were obtained, yielding 654 isolates, 42 of which were MDROs. One hundred fifty-eight patients were sampled; swabs from 18 patients yielded 29 MDR isolates. Host nation patients comprised 89% of patients with MDROs and 37% of patients without MDROs (P < .001 ). Host nation patient status was also significantly associated with MDRO carriage in multivariate logistic regression analysis (adjusted odds ratio, 2.9; confidence interval, 1.3-6.3; P = .009). Bacteria with PFGE patterns matching those recovered from host nation patients were later isolated from environmental surfaces including recovery room patient monitors and the trauma bay floor.Conclusions.At this facility, MDRO isolation was predominantly obtained from newly admitted host nation patients,,which may reflect baseline colonization with MDROs in the community. Patient MDRO carriage was linked to subsequent environmental contamination. These findings support intensive infection control efforts in forward deployed facilities.
Model building and intelligent acquisition with application to protein subcellular location classification
Authors: Jackson C. , Glory−Afshar E. , Murphy R. F. , Kovačević J. 
Published: May 2011

Abstract
Motivation: We present a framework and algorithms to intelligently acquire movies of protein subcellular location patterns by learning their models as they are being acquired, and simultaneously determining how many cells to acquire as well as how many frames to acquire per cell. This is motivated by the desire to minimize acquisition time and photobleaching, given the need to build such models for all proteins, in all cell types, under all conditions. Our key innovation is to build models during acquisition rather than as a post-processing step, thus allowing us to intelligently and automatically adapt the acquisition process given the model acquired.
Results: We validate our framework on protein subcellular location classification, and show that the combination of model building and intelligent acquisition results in time and storage savings without loss of classification accuracy, or alternatively, higher classification accuracy for the same total acquisition time.
Availability and implementation: The data and software used for this study will be made available upon publication at http://murphylab.web.cmu.edu/software and http://www.andrew.cmu.edu/user/jelenak/Software.
Contact: jelenak@cmu.edu
The advantages of an audit over a census approach to the review of video imagery in fishery monitoring
Authors: Stanley Richard D. , McElderry Howard , Mawani Tameezan , Koolman John 
Published: May 2011

Abstract
Stanley, R. D., McElderry, H., Mawani, T., and Koolman, J. 2011. The advantages of an audit over a census approach to the review of video imagery in fishery monitoring. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 1621–1627. Technology-based fishery monitoring, or electronic monitoring (EM), has emerged as an alternative to human observers and is being applied in a variety of fisheries. The method records sensor and image data from fishing operations, so can be used to provide 100% monitoring of catches and fishing activity. Alternatively, EM can be used to audit catch data self-reported by harvesters. If the random audit indicates that these data are sufficiently accurate, they can provide useful catch estimates with less reviewing time and, hence, cost. The audit approach was adopted in the groundfish hook-and-line fishery in British Columbia, Canada, in 2006, and experience has shown that it can meet operational requirements for accuracy and timeliness. It is also more robust to the impact of equipment malfunction and can provide an independent estimate of total catch. Moreover, because catch estimates are derived from self-reported data rather than “black-box” records, the estimation process is more transparent and intuitive and, hence, more trusted by harvesters. Although cost reduction is always a primary concern, the audit approach offers significant additional benefits that should be considered in the design and implementation of EM programmes.
Viscosity and Solubility of β‐Glucan Extracted Under In Vitro Conditions from Barley β‐Glucan‐Fortified Bread and Evaluation of Loaf Characteristics
Authors: Moriartey Stephanie , Temelli Feral , Vasanthan Thava , Gänzle Michael 
Published: May 2011

ABSTRACTFortifying bread with β‐glucan has been shown to reduce bread quality and the associated health benefits of barley β‐glucan. Fortification of bread using β‐glucan concentrates that are less soluble during bread preparation steps has not been investigated. The effects of β‐glucan concentration and gluten addition on the physicochemical properties of bread and β‐glucan solubility and viscosity were investigated using a less soluble β‐glucan concentrate, as were the effects of baking temperature and prior β‐glucan solubilization. Fortification of bread with β‐glucan decreased loaf volume and height (P ≤ 0.05) and increased firmness (P ≤ 0.05). Gluten addition to bread at the highest β‐glucan level increased height and volume (P ≤ 0.05) to values exceeding those for the control and decreased firmness (P ≤ 0.05). β‐Glucan addition increased (P ≤ 0.05) extract viscosity, as did gluten addition to the bread with the highest β‐glucan level. Baking at low temperature decreased (P ≤ 0.05) β‐glucan viscosity and solubility, as did solubilizing it prior to dough formulation. Utilization of β‐glucan that is less soluble during bread preparation may hold the key to effectively fortifying bread with β‐glucan without compromising its health benefits, although more research is required.
The effect of selective serotonin re‐uptake inhibitors on the risk of myocardial infarction in a cohort of patients with depression
Authors: Kimmel Stephen E. , Schelleman Hedi , Berlin Jesse A. , Oslin David W. , Weinstein Rachel B. , Kinman Judith L. , Sauer William H. , Lewis James D. 
Published: May 2011

WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ABOUT THIS SUBJECT • Depression is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Some studies, but not all, have identified an association between use of selective serotonin re‐uptake inhibitors (SSRIs) and reduced risk of myocardial infarction (MI). There may be a difference among SSRIs based on their affinity for the serotonin receptor. WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS • Current use of SSRIs by patients with depression may be associated with a reduced risk of MI. However, the risk seemed to be reduced only with longer term use of SSRIs. In addition, we did not observe a relationship between the affinity of SSRIs for the serotonin transporter and risk of MI.AIM To evaluate whether selective serotonin re‐uptake inhibitor (SSRI) exposure influences the risk of myocardial infarction (MI) in patients with depression.METHODS This study included 693 patients with MI (cases) and 2772 controls. Conditional logistic regression was used to calculate the odds ratio (OR).RESULTS SSRI exposure may be associated with a reduced MI risk (OR = 0.77, 95% CI 0.57, 1.03). However, reduced risk was only observed with longer term use (OR = 0.73, 95% CI 0.53, 1.00) and not with shorter term use (OR = 1.15, 95% CI: 0.65, 2.05).CONCLUSIONS Only longer term use of SSRIs was associated with reduced MI risk, suggesting that other mechanisms, besides an acute anti‐platelet effect, may reduce MI risk.
Memory disorders associated with consumption of drugs: updating through a case/noncase study in the French PharmacoVigilance Database
Authors: Chavant Francois , Favrelière Sylvie , Lafay‐Chebassier Claire , Plazanet Caroline , Pérault‐Pochat Marie‐Christine 
Published: May 2011

WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ABOUT THIS SUBJECT• Iatrogenic amnesia is one of the main aetiologies of transient amnesia.• Benzodiazepines and anticholinergic drugs are considered to be the drugs most often responsible for iatrogenic amnesia.• The impact of drugs in memory disorders is particularly pronounced in elderly people, especially due to polymedication.WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS• An association between memory disorders and some drugs, such as benzodiazepines, antidepressants and older anticonvulsants, was found as expected.• A strong association was found with unexpected drugs, such as benzodiazepine‐like hypnotics (zopiclone and zolpidem), serotonin reuptake inhibitor antidepressants and newer anticonvulsants.• Non‐neurotropic drugs, such as isotretinoin and ciclosporin, were also associated with memory disorders.AIMS To investigate putative associations of reports of memory disorders and suspected drugs.METHODS We used the case/noncase method in the French PharmacoVigilance Database (FPVD). Cases were reports of memory loss in the FPVD between January 2000 and December 2009. Noncases were all other reports during the same period. To assess the association between memory impairment and drug intake, we calculated an odds ratio with its 95% confidence interval.RESULTS Among the 188 284 adverse drug reactions recorded, we identified 519 cases of memory loss. The sex ratio was 0.6 and the median age was 54 years (range 4–93). The maximal number of cases occurred between 40–49 and 50–59 years. Evolution was favourable in 63% of the cases. We found significant odds ratios for benzodiazepines (alprazolam, bromazepam, prazepam, clonazepam etc.), benzodiazepine‐like hypnotics (zolpidem and zopiclone), antidepressants (fluoxetine, paroxetine and venlafaxine), analgesics (morphine, nefopam and tramadol), anticonvulsants (topiramate, pregabalin, levetiracetam etc.), antipsychotics (aripiprazole and lithium) and other drugs, such as trihexyphenidyl, ciclosporin and isotretinoin.CONCLUSIONS Our study confirmed an association between memory disorders and some drugs, such as benzodiazepines and anticonvulsants. However, other drugs, such as benzodiazepine‐like hypnotics, newer anticonvulsants, serotonin reuptake inhibitor antidepressants, isotretinoin and ciclosporin were significantly associated with memory disorders, although this was not described or poorly described in the literature.Taking account of the limits of this study in the FPVD (under‐reporting, notoriety bias etc.), the case/noncase method allows assessment and detection of associations between exposure to drugs and a specific adverse drug reaction, such as memory disorders, and could thus generate signals and orientate us to further prospective studies to confirm such associations.
The clinical management of tumour lysis syndrome in haematological malignancies
Authors: Will Andrew , Tholouli Eleni 
Published: May 2011

SummaryTumour lysis syndrome (TLS) is caused by the disintegration of malignant cells, usually following the instigation of chemotherapy, although it may already be established at the time of initial presentation in a minority of cases. As a direct consequence of malignant cell breakdown, intracellular ions, proteins, nucleic acids and their metabolites are released into the plasma causing the characteristic metabolic abnormalities of TLS; hyperuricaemia, hyperkalaemia, hyperphosphataemia and hypocalcaemia. In many cases the release of large amounts intracellular contents is so abrupt that the normal homeostatic mechanisms are rapidly overwhelmed and without prompt, effective management, the clinical effects of TLS soon become apparent.
Common genetic variation at 15q25.2 impacts on chronic lymphocytic leukaemia risk
Authors: Crowther‐Swanepoel Dalemari , Di Bernardo Maria Chiara , Jamroziak Krzysztof , Karabon Lidia , Frydecka Irena , Deaglio Silvia , D’Arena Giovanni , Rossi Davide , Gaidano Gianluca , Olver Bianca , Lloyd Amy , Broderick Peter , Laurenti Luca , Szemraj‐Rogucka Zofia , Robak Tadeusz , Catovsky Daniel , Houlston Richard S. 
Published: May 2011

SummaryA genome‐wide association study of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) suggested that common variants at 15q25.2 (rs783540) and 18q21.1 (rs1036935) influence CLL. To validate these associations and explore their relationship with CLL risk we genotyped case‐control datasets from Poland, UK and Italy totalling 1428 cases and 1920 controls. Combined data from these and previously genotyped series (2503 cases and 5789 controls) provided evidence for an association between 15q25.2 and 18q21.1 loci and CLL risk (Pcombined = 1·10 × 10−7 and 1·30 × 10−5 respectively). These data provide further evidence for the involvement of common genetic variants in CLL risk and insight into the biological basis of disease development.