bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Relations between Temperature and Residential Natural Gas Consumption in the Central and Eastern United States
Authors: Timmer Reed P. , Lamb Peter J. 
Published: October 2010

Abstract
The increased U.S. natural gas price volatility since the mid-to-late-1980s deregulation generally is attributed to the deregulated market being more sensitive to temperature-related residential demand. This study therefore quantifies relations between winter (November–February; December–February) temperature and residential gas consumption for the United States east of the Rocky Mountains for 1989–2000, by region and on monthly and seasonal time scales. State-level monthly gas consumption data are aggregated for nine multistate subregions of three Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts of the U.S. Department of Energy. Two temperature indices [days below percentile (DBP) and heating degree-days (HDD)] are developed using the Richman–Lamb fine-resolution (∼1° latitude–longitude) set of daily maximum and minimum temperatures for 1949–2000. Temperature parameters/values that maximize DBP/HDD correlations with gas consumption are identified. Maximum DBP and HDD correlations with gas consumption consistently are largest in the Great Lakes–Ohio Valley region on both monthly (from +0.89 to +0.91) and seasonal (from +0.93 to +0.97) time scales, for which they are based on daily maximum temperature. Such correlations are markedly lower on both time scales (from +0.62 to +0.80) in New England, where gas is less important than heating oil, and on the monthly scale (from +0.55 to +0.75) across the South because of low January correlations. For the South, maximum correlations are for daily DBP and HDD indices based on mean or minimum temperature. The percentiles having the highest DBP index correlations with gas consumption are slightly higher for northern regions than across the South. This is because lower (higher) relative (absolute) temperature thresholds are reached in warmer regions before home heating occurs. However, these optimum percentiles for all regions are bordered broadly by surrounding percentiles for which the correlations are almost as high as the maximum. This consistency establishes the robustness of the temperature–gas consumption relations obtained. The reference temperatures giving the highest HDD correlations with gas consumption are lower for the colder northern regions than farther south where the temperature range is truncated. However, all HDD reference temperatures greater than +10°C (+15°C) yield similar such correlations for northern (southern) regions, further confirming the robustness of the findings. This robustness, coupled with the very high correlation magnitudes obtained, suggests that potentially strong gas consumption predictability would follow from accurate seasonal temperature forecasts.
The North Pacific Climate Transitions of the Winters of 1976/77 and 1988/89
Authors: Yeh Sang-Wook , Kang Yune-Jung , Noh Yign , Miller Arthur J. 
Published: October 2010

Abstract
This paper examines characteristic changes in North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability during the boreal winter (December–February) for two subperiods (1956–88 and 1977–2009) during which the 1976/77 and the 1988/89 climate transitions occurred. It is found that the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)-like SST variability plays a dominant role in the 1976/77 climate transition, while both the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO)-like and PDO-like SST variability contribute to the 1988/89 climate transition. Furthermore, the leading mode changes from PDO-like SST variability during the period 1956–88 to NPGO-like SST variability during the period 1977–2009, indicative of an enhancement of NPGO-like SST variability since 1988. Changes in sea level pressure across the 1976/77 climate transition project strongly onto the Aleutian low pressure system. But sea level pressure changes across the 1988/89 climate transition project primarily onto the North Pacific Oscillation, which is associated with remote changes in the Arctic Oscillation over the polar region as well. This contributes to enhancing the NPGO-like SST variability after 1988. The authors also analyze the output from an ensemble of Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) experiments in which the observed SSTs are inserted only at grid points in the tropics between 20°S and 20°N. The results indicate that the changes in the North Pacific atmosphere in the 1976/77 climate transition are mostly due to the tropics, whereas those in the 1988/89 climate transition are not.
The Role of Regional SST Warming Variations in the Drying of Meso-America in Future Climate Projections*
Authors: Rauscher Sara A. , Kucharski Fred , Enfield David B. 
Published: October 2010

AbstractThis paper addresses several hypotheses designed to explain why AOGCM simulations of future climate in the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) feature an intensified reduction of precipitation over the Meso-America (MA) region. While the drying is consistent with an amplification of the subtropical high pressure cells and an equatorward contraction of convective regions due to the “upped ante” for convection in a warmer atmosphere, the physical mechanisms behind the intensity and robustness of the MA drying signal have not been fully explored. Regional variations in sea surface temperature (SST) warming may play a role. First, SSTs over the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) do not warm as much as the surrounding ocean. The troposphere senses a TNA that is cooler than the tropical Pacific, potentially exciting a Gill-type response, increasing the strength of the North Atlantic subtropical high. Second, the warm ENSO-like state simulated in the eastern tropical Pacific could decrease precipitation over MA, as warm ENSO events are associated with drying over MA.The authors use the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) AGCM to investigate the effects of these regional SST warming variations on the projected drying over MA. First, the change of SSTs [Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B’s Twentieth-Century Climate in Coupled Model (A1B-20C)] in the ensemble average of the CMIP3 models is applied to determine if the ICTP AGCM can replicate the future drying. Then the effects of 1) removing the reduced warming over the TNA, 2) removing the warm ENSO-event-like pattern in the eastern tropical Pacific, and 3) applying uniform SST warming throughout the tropics are tested. The ICTP AGCM can reproduce the general pattern and amount of precipitation over MA. Simulations in which the CMIP3 A1B-20C ensemble-average SSTs are added to climatological SSTs show drying of more than 20% over the MA region, similar to the CMIP3 ensemble average. Replacing the relatively cooler SSTs over the TNA excites a Gill response consistent with an off-equatorial heating anomaly, showing that the TNA relative cooling is responsible for about 16% (31%) of the drying in late spring (early summer). The warm ENSO-like SST pattern over the eastern Pacific also affects precipitation over the MA region, with changes of 19% and 31% in March–June (MMJ) and June–August (JJA), respectively. This work highlights the importance of understanding even robust signals in the CMIP3 future scenario simulations, and should aid in the design and analysis of future climate change studies over the region.
Global Teleconnections in Response to Freshening over the Antarctic Ocean
Authors: Ma Hao , Wu Lixin 
Published: October 2010

AbstractIn this paper, coupled ocean–atmosphere responses to freshening over the Antarctic Ocean are investigated in a fully coupled model with a series of sensitivity experiments. In the model, 1.0 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) of freshwater flux is uniformly imposed over the Antarctic Ocean for 400 yr, while the ocean and atmosphere remain fully coupled both locally and elsewhere. The model explicitly demonstrates that a freshening of the Antarctic Ocean can induce a significant local cooling coupled with an intensification of the westerly winds and expansion of sea ice. Furthermore, the cooling can extend to the entire southern extratropical and tropical oceans coupled with an intensification of southeasterly trades and the equatorial trade winds. Some modest warm anomalies also occur in the northern extratropical oceans, forming a sharp interhemispheric SST contrast.A series of sensitivity experiments are conducted to understand the mechanisms responsible for transmitting the southern high latitude cooling to the tropics and the Northern Hemisphere. Experimental results demonstrate the important role of the surface coupled wind–evaporation–SST feedback and in turn changes of the subtropical–tropical meridional overturning circulation in conveying the southern high-latitude temperature anomalies to the tropics. The interhemispheric seesaw originates from the tropical–northern extratropical atmospheric teleconnection and is sustained by the subductive process of Antarctic subsurface warming. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is intensified in the first few decades of the freshwater forcing over the Antarctic Ocean because of a shutdown of the Antarctic deep convection, but it subsequently decreases because of the spreading of the fresh anomalies from the Southern Ocean to the Northern Ocean.
Relationships between Extratropical Sea Level Pressure Variations and the Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific Types of ENSO
Authors: Yu Jin-Yi , Kim Seon Tae 
Published: October 2010

Abstract
This study examines the linkages between leading patterns of interannual sea level pressure (SLP) variability over the extratropical Pacific (20°–60°N) and the eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) types of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of the extratropical SLP anomalies represents variations of the Aleutian low, and the second EOF mode represents the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and is characterized by a meridional SLP anomaly dipole with a nodal point near 50°N. It is shown that a fraction of the first SLP mode can be excited by both the EP and CP types of ENSO. The SLP response to the EP type is stronger and more immediate. The tropical–extratropical teleconnection appears to act more slowly for the CP ENSO. During the decay phase of EP events, the associated extratropical SLP anomalies shift from the first SLP mode to the second SLP mode. As the second SLP mode grows, subtropical SST anomalies are induced beneath via surface heat flux anomalies. The SST anomalies persist after the peak in strength of the second SLP mode, likely because of the seasonal footprinting mechanism, and lead to the development of the CP type of ENSO. This study shows that the CP ENSO is an extratropically excited mode of tropical Pacific variability and also suggests that the decay of an EP type of ENSO can lead to the onset of a CP type of ENSO with the aid of the NPO. This extratropical linking mechanism appears to be at work during the 1972, 1982, and 1997 strong El Niño events, which were all EP events and were all followed by strong CP La Niña events after the NPO was excited in the extratropics. This study concludes that extratropical SLP variations play an important role in exciting the CP type of ENSO and in linking the transitions from the EP to CP events.
Ocean Heat Transport as a Cause for Model Uncertainty in Projected Arctic Warming
Authors: Mahlstein Irina , Knutti Reto 
Published: October 2010

Abstract
The Arctic climate is governed by complex interactions and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere, ocean, and solar radiation. One of its characteristic features, the Arctic sea ice, is very vulnerable to anthropogenically caused warming. Production and melting of sea ice is influenced by several physical processes. The authors show that the northward ocean heat transport is an important factor in the simulation of the sea ice extent in the current general circulation models. Those models that transport more energy to the Arctic show a stronger future warming, in the Arctic as well as globally. Larger heat transport to the Arctic, in particular in the Barents Sea, reduces the sea ice cover in this area. More radiation is then absorbed during summer months and is radiated back to the atmosphere in winter months. This process leads to an increase in the surface temperature and therefore to a stronger polar amplification. The models that show a larger global warming agree better with the observed sea ice extent in the Arctic. In general, these models also have a higher spatial resolution.
These results suggest that higher resolution and greater complexity are beneficial in simulating the processes relevant in the Arctic and that future warming in the high northern latitudes is likely to be near the upper range of model projections, consistent with recent evidence that many climate models underestimate Arctic sea ice decline.
Future Impact of Differential Interbasin Ocean Warming on Atlantic Hurricanes
Authors: Lee Sang-Ki , Enfield David B. , Wang Chunzai 
Published: October 2010

AbstractGlobal climate model simulations forced by future greenhouse warming project that the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) warms at a slower rate than the tropical Indo-Pacific in the twenty-first century, consistent with their projections of a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Here, an atmospheric general circulation model is used to advance a consistent physical rationale that the suppressed warming of the TNA increases the vertical wind shear and static stability aloft in the main development region (MDR) for Atlantic hurricanes, and thus decreases overall Atlantic hurricane activity in the twenty-first century. A carefully designed suite of model experiments illustrates that the preferential warming of the tropical Indo-Pacific induces a global average warming of the tropical troposphere, via a tropical teleconnection mechanism, and thus increases atmospheric static stability and decreases convection over the suppressed warming region of the TNA. The anomalous diabatic cooling, in turn, forces the formation of a stationary baroclinic Rossby wave northwest of the forcing region, consistent with Gill’s simple model of tropical atmospheric circulations, in such a way as to induce a secular increase of the MDR vertical wind shear. However, a further analysis indicates that the net effect of future greenhouse warming on the MDR vertical wind shear is less than the observed multidecadal swing of the MDR vertical wind shear in the twentieth century. Thus, it is likely that the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation will still play a decisive role over the greenhouse warming in the fate of Atlantic hurricane activity throughout the twenty-first century under the assumption that the twenty-first-century changes in interbasin SST difference, projected by the global climate model simulations, are accurate.
Observed Ocean Variability in the Mindanao Dome Region
Authors: Kashino Yuji , Ishida Akio , Hosoda Shigeki 
Published: October 2010

Abstract
Ocean variations at semiannual, annual, and interannual time scales in the Mindanao Dome (MD) region of the southern Philippine Sea were examined using data derived from underwater sensors on Triangle Trans-Ocean Buoy Network (TRITON) buoys at 8°N, 137°E; 5°N, 137°E; and 8°N, 130°E. Annual signal dominated above 300-m depth in the MD region. At 5°N, 137°E, saline water exceeding 35 psu was observed at 100–200-m depth from boreal winter to spring, seemingly associated with the meridional migration of the North Equatorial Countercurrent during these seasons. Thermocline ascent, probably related to the MD, was also observed from boreal winter to spring. An important mechanism of the annual variation of the MD at 5°N seems to be the annual variability of local wind, as mentioned in past studies. However, annual variability at 8°N seems to be due to Rossby waves originating west of 150°W rather than to local wind effects. Semiannual variation was also observed, with its amplitude reaching 40%–70% of the annual signal. With regard to interannual variability, ocean variation on the time scale of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was seen; upper heat content (above 300-m depth) in the Mindanao Dome region decreased during the 2002–03 and 2006–07 El Niño periods and increased between those periods. Increasing upper heat content in this region after 2005 was probably associated with large negative anomalies of Ekman pumping (downwelling) that appeared from 2005 to 2006 east of 150°E and north of 5°N.
Patterns of Land Surface Errors and Biases in the Global Forecast System
Authors: Werth David , Garrett Alfred 
Published: October 2010

One year’s worth of Global Forecast System (GFS) predictions of surface meteorological variables (wind speed, air temperature, dewpoint temperature, sea level pressure) are validated for land-based stations over the entire planet for forecasts extending from 0 h into the future (an analysis) to 7 days. Approximately 12 000 surface stations worldwide were included in this analysis. Root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) increased as the forecast period increased from 0 to 36 h, but the initial RMSEs were almost as large as the 36-h forecast RMSEs for all variables. Typical RMSEs were 3°C for air temperature, 2–3 mb for sea level pressure, 3.5°C for dewpoint temperature, and 2.5 m s−1 for wind speed. An analysis of the biases at each station shows that the biggest errors are associated with mountain ranges and other areas of steep topography, with land–sea contrasts also playing a role. When the error is decomposed into the bias, variance, and correlation terms, the large initial RMSEs for the 0-h forecasts are seen to be due to a large forecast bias (which persisted into the longer forecasts) with errors in forecast correlation also making a large contribution. A validation of two subdomains showed results similar to the global validation, but the dependence of the biases on the forecast time was clearer. Finally, the RMSE values climb as forecasts go out when validated out to a period of 7 days as the correlation error term grows.
The AROME-France Convective-Scale Operational Model
Authors: Seity Y. , Brousseau P. , Malardel S. , Hello G. , Bénard P. , Bouttier F. , Lac C. , Masson V. 
Published: October 2010

Abstract
After six years of scientific, technical developments and meteorological validation, the Application of Research to Operations at Mesoscale (AROME-France) convective-scale model became operational at Météo-France at the end of 2008. This paper presents the main characteristics of this new numerical weather prediction system: the nonhydrostatic dynamical model core, detailed moist physics, and the associated three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3D-Var) scheme. Dynamics options settings and variables are explained. The physical parameterizations are depicted as well as their mutual interactions. The scale-specific features of the 3D-Var scheme are shown. The performance of the forecast model is evaluated using objective scores and case studies that highlight its benefits and weaknesses.
The devil is in the details
Authors: Gleddie Doug L 
Published: October 2010

Objective: Guidelines from a variety of jurisdictions for the health-promoting schools (HPS) approach include healthy school policy as a critical element. Research also supports the importance of policy; however, there seems to be a lack of information on how to develop and implement policy. The article examines the processes involved in one school division’s development and implementation of healthy school policy. Design: The study emerged from the Battle River Project, a multilevel partnership designed to explore the efficacy of implementing HPS at a school division level. The project intervention involved support for schools, a division-level steering committee, and a framework for implementation. Setting: The Battle River School Division is located in Alberta, Canada, and serves both rural and urban school communities. The study involved 21 of the 36 schools in the division and was initiated by the Ever Active Schools programme. Method: Development and implementation of policy and procedure were examined using case study methodology. Data gathered included interviews, focus groups, documents and observation. Results: Four primary themes were revealed through data analysis. Perceptions and misconceptions; bottom–up/top–down; flexible rigidity; and the way we do business. Conclusion: The process of developing and implementing healthy school policy can be streamlined by planning for clear communication, involving all stakeholders, and by embedding health into the structures of a school jurisdiction.
Implementing comprehensive offender behaviour in a realistic agent-based model of burglary
Authors: Malleson Nick , See Linda , Evans Andy , Heppenstall Alison 
Published: October 2010

Explaining and modelling crime patterns is an exercise that has taxed policy-makers, criminologists, social reformers and the police ever since the first crime patterns were recorded. Crime is a particularly difficult phenomenon to model because of its inherent complexity; crime patterns are built up from a multitude of human-human and human-environment micro-interactions that ultimately lead to individual crime events. Commonly used modelling techniques, such as regression, struggle to fully account for the dynamics of the crime system. They work at aggregate scales thereby disregarding important individual-level variation and also struggle to account for the effects of different types of human behaviour. Furthermore, important concepts from environmental criminology – such as individual offender awareness spaces or heterogeneity in offender decision-making – cannot be included directly when working at a resolution above that of the individual. This research addresses the drawbacks associated with traditional mathematical crime models by building an agent-based simulation with a unique offender behavioural model. Through use of the PECS framework for modelling human behaviour, agents are endowed with needs and motives that drive their behaviour and ultimately lead to the commission of crime. As the model uses real-world environmental data, it can be used to make predictions in existing cities. The paper demonstrates that use of this framework, in combination with an agent-based model, can replicate patterns and trends that are supported by the current theoretical understanding of offending behaviour.