bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Un modèle de projection des prix utilisant les relations intersectorielles de l’économie canadienne
Authors: Rioux R. 
Published: July 2012

This paper describes a simple cost-push price model which has been developed at the Structural Analysis Division of Statistics Canada.
This price model is a traditional input/output cost-push model which has been adapted to utilize the rectangular industry by commodity input/output tables for Canada. It can be considered as the "dual" of the output model. Instead of analysing the propagation of demand through the economic system, the price model serves to analyse the propagation of factor prices throughout the system.
The purpose of such a price formation model is to determine the impact on industry selling prices and domestic commodity prices arising from a change in impart commodity prices and primary input prices.
This price model is of a static type; it accepts no substitutions and its structure is quite rigid. It is considered as being an annual model although it can be used for a different time period.
This model is fully operational and is widely used by many government and private agencies.
Effets des erreurs dans les coefficients structuraux d’un modèle intersectoriel « rectangulaire ». Une approche de type Monte-Carlo
Authors: Autin Claude , Fearnley Jacques , Rioux Ronald 
Published: July 2012

The most simple rectangular input-output models use two rectangular matrices: R a market coefficient matrix, A* a production coefficient matrix. A given exogenous demand Xo determines the sectorial activity levels X* = [I — RA*]-1Xo. We assume that A* is random with expectation A. We study the distribution of the "error" X* — X with X = [I — RA]-1Xo.
(1) For the statistically independent elements of A*, we analytically prove that X < EX*.
(2) In the more realistic case of statistically dependent elements of A*.
(a) One submatrix of A* with T non zero elements is chosen. The probabilistic model which generates the T coefficients is as follows: a* = (1 — μ)a + μ(S/n) b* où a* is the vector of the T random elements, a is the expectation of a* whose components are observed values of a real input-output model, S is the sum of components of a, μ is a parameter between zero and one, b* is a multinomial random vector with T components and parameters n, number of drawings during an experiment, and a/S, the corresponding probabilities.
We control the variability of a* through μ and n. For a given experiment, we get a realisation of A* and we compute X*. K independent experiments allow us to estimate the expectation and the variance-covariance matrix of X*, simultaneous confidence intervals for the expectation of the components of X*, and also a few global measures of errors on X*.
The Canadian model for 1961 (16 productive sectors, 40 commodities), is tested with that model.
The main result is: the relative errors, measured according to the variation coefficients, are greatly reduced when we pass from the "errors" on a* to the corresponding "errors" on X*.
(b) The same random model is also simultaneously applied to 2 or 3 sub-matrices of A*.
Un modèle intersectoriel de l’économie canadienne avec contrainte sur l’offre; une approche utilisant la programmation linéaire
Authors: Dale P. A. , Dewaleyne C. , Gigantes T. , Hoffman R. B. 
Published: July 2012

This article describes a model, developed by the Structural Analysis Division of Statistics Canada, that helps analyse the economic implications of policy decisions in the environment of a supply-constrained economy. The Canadian input-output model is modified to introduce constraints on the uses of some commodity or industry products. These constraints take the form of limits on the availability of commodities for some uses, constraints that ensure that some minimum levels of final demand for each commodity are satisfied, and capacity constraints on the outputs of industries. Given these constraints, a linear function of the activity levels is maximized. The resulting solution gives a vector of activity levels, and also corresponding final demands that are optimal in terms of the objective function.
The use of the model is illustrated by analyzing the 'optimal' allocation of industrial outputs in the face of a reduction in the availability of the commodity, 'crude mineral oils', for industrial uses. Two objective functions are used: total employment, and total wages, salaries and supplementary labour income. For each objective function, a ranking of the industries is defined by the solutions of the model.
Experience with this model leads us to conclude that it is useful in indicating which industries are of primary interest in a specific shortage situation, rather than in setting exact values of cutbacks to impose on industries. In the conclusion, relaxation of the major assumptions underlying the model and some possible extensions are discussed.
L’analyse des configurations du comportement industriel comme technique de prévision
Authors: Simmonds W. H. C. 
Published: July 2012

One important tool for forecasting in the field of applied economics has been largely overlooked—the identification and analysis of patterns of industrial behavior. The following paper shows how the method of detecting behavior patterns, and the factors which control them, can be utilized for analyzing the past economic performance of an industry and for predicting its likely performance in the future.
This analysis has also revealed that when controlled by the same factors, different industries follow the same behavior pattern. This being so, it becomes possible to group industries together and reclassify them on the basis of their common major business characteristics. Of these, one of the most important is their mode of competition. This reclassification also enables us to know when we can transfer experience between industries (within the same group) and when we cannot do this (between industries in different groups).
At the present time, significant changes are occurring in the economic, organizational and technical climates. New economic goals appear necessary for Canada and these are suggested. These changes are altering the importance of the factors controlling industrial behavior. The nature of these changes is considered and applied to the case of the chemical industry in the next decade. The analysis suggests what new factors will control this industry, and the direction and nature of the likely changes in it. Given this, an estimate of the economic changes can be made.
Analysis of behavior patterns is, therefore, a powerful and essential tool for estimating the future behavior of industries, and of groups of industries, in the economy.
Un mécanisme de prospective technologique en prospective
Authors: Voyer R. D. 
Published: July 2012

The growth of consumer and environmentalist movements in recent years has shown that technological innovation is not always beneficial. Growing public pressure for better assessments of the consequences of technological projects has lead to the development of the concept of "Technology Assessment" which has been defined as "taking a purposeful look at the consequences of technological change".
The concept of "Technology Assessment" originated in the U.S.A. in the early 1960's. In 1972 the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) was formed as an aid to Congress. However since the Canadian political system differs significantly from that in the U.S.A. a different mechanism for Technology Assessment is needed in Canada. The present paper describes such a mechanism.
Prolégomènes à toute appréciation critique de CANDIDE
Authors: Chabot-Plante Francine , Hébert Maurice , Waslander H. E. L. 
Published: July 2012

This text describes the CANDIDE model from three critical points of view. First, it presents the structure of the model with the aid of a table of "supersectors" and a flow chart. The discussion of the linkages between these supersectors brings out the general equilibrium character of the model.
The center section of the paper deals with the theoretical foundations of the behavioural equations. A statement of the equation specification in each sector of the model is followed by a brief evaluation. The authors confess to an eclectic attitude and stress the practical difficulties of making stylized theories bring order in variegated facts. Exogenous influences on the model are discussed as well.
The same eclectic approach is evident in the third part of the text which treats of estimation and validation. A variety of tests and checks—some novel ones included—are applied in the process of developing the model. The authors conclude with the observation that recent tumultuous developments in the economy raise fundamental questions about the validity and usefulness of models like CANDIDE.
La taxe fédérale de vente sur les matériaux de construction : quelques simulations avec le modèle CANDIDE 1.1
Authors: Schweitzer Thomas T. 
Published: July 2012

This paper simulates the economy of the period 1963-71 under the assumption that the federal sales tax on construction materials had never been introduced.
Evidently, under such circumstances the revenues of the federal government would have been lower than with the construction materials tax in force. We attempted to compensate for the "shortfall" in revenues by raising other taxes or by reducing federal government expenditures.
The simulations suggest that the absence of the construction materials sales tax would have led at best to an additional 9,300 housing starts in 1971. Construction costs in 1971 would have been 5%-8.5% lower than actual, depending on the compensatory policy. Somewhat less inflation and somewhat more housing starts can be obtained at the price of lower real growth and higher unemployment. The choice remains, ultimately, a political one.
Les implications de la stabilisation de la construction résidentielle
Authors: Chung Joseph H. , Chabot-Plante Francine 
Published: July 2012

Monetary policy has been recognized as one of the principal reasons for cyclical instability in residential construction. It has been therefore suggested that residential construction should be isolated from monetary policy. This paper is designed to measure the impact of such suggestion.
We have used the CANDIDE model for our experimentation. Residential construction is isolated through appropriate adjustments of the intercepts of the equations for residential construction. This led of cause of disturbances in various aggregates of the economy. Hence, a series of simulations was run in such a way that the disturbed aggregates would come close to the corresponding aggregates obtained by the control-solution. This meant additional adjustment in money supply and Treasury Bond yield, which are regarded as proper indicators of monetary policy.
It was found that the additional adjustment varied between 9 to 16% in case of money supply and 38 to 45% in case of Treasury Bond yield. In addition, variation in non-residential construction and investment in machinery and equipment was found to be significant. In short, though efficient in stabilizing residential construction, the isolation of residential construction from monetary policy appears to be costly in terms of its impact on monetary policy and capital investment.
La tarification douanière dans un optimum de compromis
Authors: Bronsard Camille , Kabuya F. Kalala 
Published: July 2012

The purpose of this paper is to integrate into a general model of an open economy the study of optimal wedges on domestic and foreign transactions.
While it has been customary in the literature to link the analysis of domestic taxes to the provision of public goods, the model presented here views the imposition of taxes and tariffs in the general context of internal and external monopolies. As such, the paper begins with the idea of a compromised optimality. This means essentially that a modern society, while maximizing the welfare of its members, is constrained by other internal objectives such as the fact that the State shares its monopoly power with several other economic entities (for instance employers' federations, trade-unions). Thus, the mere fact of levying taxes gives a State some monopoly power which, in a sense, is similar to that of a Cournot-type monopolist who "imposes" private taxes.
On the other hand, given the possibility that a country with some monopoly power in international trade could improve its situation by imposing tariffs, the analysis lends itself to the study of tariffs and taxes in the broad context of optimal wedges. To allow for this characterization, the paper incorporates into the model of normalization. As a by-product of this, a) it establishes, in terms of generalized inverses of the Slutsky matrix, a link between domestic marginal relative revenues and foreign ones; b) it defines two concepts of optimal tariffs evaluated from f.o.b. prices and c.i.f. prices; c) it suggests some further extensions such as the analysis of transactions costs, the incorporation of market retaliations and cultural characteristics of goods.
La prise de décision en situation d’incertitude
Authors: Drèze Jacques H. 
Published: July 2012

A conceptual framework is provided by the "states of the world" approach (reviewed in section 1). The powerful normative analysis of individual decision-making under uncertainty extends the theory of consumer choice under certainty into an adequate specification of individual norms of behavior (section 2). But the link with observable market phenomena would require the existence of a complete set of insurance markets, one for every commodity conditionally on every state of the world. Although some disagreement persists on this point, the author feels that the insurance and asset markets which exist in western economies fall substantially short of offering trading opportunities comparable to those implied by a complete set of insurance markets. Consequently, consumer preferences are incompletely revealed by market prices. And business firms lack the information required to reach decisions by mere arithmetic comparisons of alternative profit levels (section 3). Management under uncertainty and incomplete markets acquires genuine significance. What norms of managerial behavior should be assumed for positive economic analysis is a disputed issue. From a normative viewpoint, managerial decisions must be viewed as group decisions, with consequences affecting many individuals—and the theory of such decisions is by necessity more complex (section 4).
Deprived of the powerful clarification introduced by the competitive markets lamppost, the economic analysis of uncertainty must fall back on the elementary principle that all risks are ultimately borne by the individual economic agents, in their triple capacity as consumers, workers and investors. Alternative policies by firm managers or public officials must be evaluated in terms of their consequence for individuals on these three levels. The absence of market references and of reliable positive models causes difficulties in eliciting these consequences. A major concern of policy makers should be to understand better what forms of uncertainty are most costly to bear for individuals, so as to design institutions and policies aimed at transforming these into less costly alternatives (section 5).
Bref aperçu d’un modèle à forme réduite de prévision de la dépense nationale brute au Canada
Authors: Duguay Pierre 
Published: July 2012

This paper presents a critical evaluation of a St-Louis type monetarist reduced-form model for Canada. The model centres on two equations estimated over the 1957-1977 sample period. An expenditure equation relates the growth of nominal GNE to the rate of monetary expansion and to changes in autonomous expenditure. The split between real growth and inflation is modelled through a simple Phillips curve with adaptive expectations.
The dynamic properties of the model are discussed, and illustrated with simulations of alternative monetary growth paths. The analysis reveals some disturbing characteristics of this type of model. For instance, the responses of GNE to money supply changes or to price shocks are not symmetrical though both represent the same shock to real money supply. The price response to a monetary shock, while more plausible than in most large macroeconomic models, remains inadequate since increased monetary expansion results in higher real money supply accompanying higher inflation. The author nevertheless leaves the impression that reduced form models are a useful starting point for econometric research; their limitations are only an invitation to further refinements.
Simulations d’un modèle basé sur l’hypothèse du cycle de vie
Authors: Aubry Jean-Pierre , Fleurent Diane 
Published: July 2012

This study was undertaken in order to provide better insight into the dynamics of the life-cycle model and to develop a set of quantitative relationships that model the behaviour of macroeconomic aggregates. To begin, a microeconomic model was constructed which could, with a certain accuracy, reproduce behaviour patterns based on the life-cycle hypothesis and, with the aid of observed data on the Canadian population structure, generate a number of macroeconomic variables implied by this behaviour. The dynamics of this model were then examined in a number of simulations in which the effects of variations in population structure, as well as developments in incomes and the interest rate were analyzed. In a third step, we attempted to estimate certain standard consumption functions using the aggregate data generated by the model. While the estimates we obtained met current econometric criteria, these functions, especially where the interest rate was concerned, did not adequately reproduce the model used to generate the data. Finally we tested other formulations which seemed likely to yield a more acceptable representation of the basic model. This exercise, however, proved disappointing.
In conclusion, it was ascertained that the study will have to be further refined in order to integrate into the macroeconomic formulations certain adjustments that would take into account demographic variations as well as the intertemporal substitution effect.
Une analyse économique des loteries québécoises
Authors: Boucher Michel 
Published: July 2012

The focus of this article is to analyse the reasons for the success of the Québec Lotteries. To do it perfectly, we study the technical terms of the lottery, drawing, namely the expected value, the probability of winning a prize and the inequality of the prize distribution. Then we analyse some changes introduced by Loto-Québec and we contrast the results with other more established lotteries and the differences so observed may provide additional reasons for its success.
In the second part, we use the theory of choice involving risk as described by Allais and Tobin to explain the demand for lotteries tickets. We find, by a statistical analysis, where the independent variables are the mean value and the variance of the prize distribution, that people who buy tickets are generally speaking risk-averters and not risk-lovers and they behave as such when Loto-Québec changes the mean value and the variance.
Effets de la crise de l’énergie sur la croissance économique de Montréal et du Québec
Authors: Martin Fernand 
Published: July 2012

This impact depends upon changes in trends of certain economic activities both in the short and long run.
In the short run the impact will be different in Canada as compared to the United States. The presence of a large hydro-electric capacity will ease the impact of the crisis. Yet, the federal government intervention in the level of oil prices and in the construction of the Sarnia-Montréal pipe-line introduces enough uncertainty to postpone many investment decisions in the Montreal petrochemical complex.
In the long run some substitution is possible among sources of energy. In this respect the future Bay James hydro-electrical project should endow the Province of Quebec with a locational advantage, at least in the case of some industries.
On the other hand, under the hypothesis that the price of foreign oil will remain high, Montreal looses one of its advantages: the access to cheap oil. This coupled with the fact that the petrochemical industries, e.g., those linked to secondary refining processes such as cracking, reforming and alkylation, prefer a location near the market, will in the long run reduce the rate of growth of the petrochemical complex near Montreal. The market forces are so strong that even before the crisis, Montreal, from 1960 to 1973, experienced a gradual weakening of its relative importance in the secondary stages of refining; for instance in alkylation its position went from 57.3 p.c. of total Canadian capacity to 16.8 p.c.
If the hydro-electric potential is not used by the Province of Quebec as a development tool, the oil crisis will slightly hurt Montreal's prospects for development.
Le revenu annuel garanti : nouvelle forme de sécurité du revenu
Authors: Bellerose Pierre-Paul 
Published: July 2012

This paper discusses guaranteed annual income (GAI) as a mean of income redistribution and an alternative to current income security programs, with an emphasis on some basic facts commonly overlooked in recent debates.
In the first part, GAI is shown to be, conceptually and technically, a logical evolution rather than a revolution considering the current income security program.
In the second part, we show that the cost of income security programs must essentially be related to the amount of "net transfers". As a consequence, GAI programs will be costlier than the present system, because they require greater net transfers.
In the third part, given a distribution of families by level of income, we show that the rate of decrease of poverty through any GAI program depends on the relative values of both the arbitrarily chosen poverty threshold and on the selected breaking point of "zero net transfer". Finally, rules are established pertaining to the effect of various GAI programs on poverty.
Cu–Nb Nanocomposite Wires Processed by Severe Plastic Deformation: Effects of the Multi‐Scale Microstructure and Internal Stresses on Elastic‐Plastic Properties
Authors: Dubois Jean‐Baptiste , Thilly Ludovic , Renault Pierre‐Olivier , Lecouturier Florence 
Published: July 2012

AbstractCopper‐based high strength and high electrical conductivity nanocomposite wires reinforced by Nb nanotubes are prepared by severe plastic deformation, applied with an Accumulative Drawing and Bundling process (ADB), for the windings of high pulsed magnets. The ADB process leads to a multi‐scale Cu matrix containing up to N = 854 (52.2 106) continuous parallel Nb tubes with diameter down to few tens nanometers. After heavy strain, the Nb nanotubes exhibit a homogeneous microstructure with grain size below 100 nm. The Cu matrix presents a multi‐scale microstructure with multi‐modal grain size distribution from the micrometer to the nanometer range. In‐situ tensile tests of the nanocomposite wires under neutrons and high energy synchrotron beam shed light on the effects of the multi‐scale microstructure and internal stresses on their macroscopic elastic‐plastic properties, revealing that microstructure architecture offers an additional degree of freedom in the tailoring of materials properties.