bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Stock Returns, Inflation, and Economic Activity: The Survey Evidence
Authors: HASBROUCK JOEL 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThe primary purpose of this paper is the use of survey expectations data to study the empirical relationships between stock returns, inflation, and economic activity. In the course of this analysis and as a secondary purpose, the paper discusses general considerations involving the use of expectations proxies and makes recommendations for econometric techniques. The main empirical findings are: (1) Hypothesized relationships between expected economic activity and expected inflation do not in practice appear to be important in explaining the negative relationship between expected inflation and stock returns. (2) Nevertheless, the survey data do lend some support to the hypothesis of a quantity theory relationship between expected inflation and expected economic activity, holding constant monetary growth. (3) The cross‐forecaster dispersion of economic activity forecasts, a proxy for real uncertainty, appears to be a significant determinant of stock returns. Inclusion of this variable eliminates the negative impact of expected inflation.
Mean‐Gini, Portfolio Theory, and the Pricing of Risky Assets
Authors: SHALIT HAIM , YITZHAKI SHLOMO 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis paper presents the mean‐Gini (MG) approach to analyze risky prospects and construct optimum portfolios. The proposed method has the simplicity of a mean‐variance model and the main features of stochastic dominance efficiency. Since mean‐Gini is consistent with investor behavior under uncertainty for a wide class of probability distributions, Gini's mean difference is shown to be more adequate than the variance for evaluating the variability of a prospect. The MG approach is then applied to capital markets and the security valuation theorem is derived as a general relationship between average return and risk. This is further extended to include a degree of risk aversion that can be estimated from capital market data. The analysis is concluded with the concentration ratio to allow for the classification of different securities with respect to their relative riskiness.
A Simple Formula for the Expected Rate of Return of an Option over a Finite Holding Period
Authors: RUBINSTEIN MARK 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTUnder conditions consistent with the Black‐Scholes formula, a simple formula is developed for the expected rate of return of an option over a finite holding period possibly less than the time to expiration of the option. Under these conditions, surprisingly, the expected future value of a European option, even prior to expiration, is shown equal to the current Black‐Scholes value of the option, except that the expected future value of the stock at the end of the holding period replaces the current stock price in the Black‐Scholes formula and the future value of a riskless invesment of the striking price replaces the striking price. An extension of this result is used to approximate moments of the distribution of returns from an option portfolio.
The American Put Option Valued Analytically
Authors: GESKE ROBERT , JOHNSON H. E. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTAn analytic solution to the American put problem is derived herein. The hedge ratio and other derivatives of the solution are presented. The formula derived implies an exact duplicating portfolio for the American put consisting of discount bonds and stock sold short. The formula is extended to consider put options on stocks paying cash dividends. A polynomial expression is developed for evaluating these formulae. Values and hedge ratios for puts on both dividend and nondividend paying stocks are calculated, tabulated, and compared with values derived by numerical integration and binomial approximation. As with European options, evaluating an analytic formula is more efficient than approximating the stock price process or the partial differential equation by binomial or finite difference methods. Finally, applications of this American put solution are discussed.
Optimal Release of Information By Firms
Authors: DIAMOND DOUGLAS W. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis paper provides a positive theory of voluntary disclosure by firms. Previous theoretical work on disclosure of new information by firms has demonstrated that releasing public information will often make all shareholders worse off, due to an adverse risk‐sharing effect. This paper uses a general equilibrium model with endogenous information collection to demonstrate that there exists a policy of disclosure of information which makes all shareholders better off than a policy of no disclosure. The welfare improvement occurs because of explicit information cost savings and improved risk sharing. This provides a positive theory of precommitment to disclosure, because it will be unanimously voted for by stockholders and will also represent the policy that will maximize value ex ante. In addition, it provides a “missing link” in financial signalling models. Apart from the effects on information production analyzed in this paper, most existing financial signalling models are inconsistent with a firm taking actions which facilitate future signalling because release of the signal makes all investors worse off.
The Impact of Inflation on the Aggregate Debt‐Asset Ratio
Authors: HOCHMAN SHALOM , PALMON ODED 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis paper demonstrates that, contrary to the results of previous studies, the impact of inflation on the aggregate debt‐asset ratio cannot be determined theoretically. However, it is shown that inflation is likely to increase this ratio when personal income tax schedules are indexed to the price level and/or when leverage‐related costs are relatively high and the personal tax rate on income from holding common stocks is relatively low.
Taxes, Default Risk, and Yield Spreads
Authors: YAWITZ JESS B. , MALONEY KEVIN J. , EDERINGTON LOUIS H. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis paper develops a model of bond prices and yield spreads that incorporates the effect of both taxes and differences in default probabilities. The tax loss consequences of default are recognized. Traditionally, tax‐free (municipal) bond yields have been viewed as linearly related to taxable yields with a slope coefficient equal to one minus the tax rate and the intercept representing differences in default risk. While our model supports the linearity assumption, it implies that the slope and intercept are both functions of both the break‐even tax rate and the default probability(ies). Clientele effects among both municipal and taxable bonds are demonstrated. Finally, the implied marginal tax rates and the implied default probabilities are estimated for different categories of municipal bonds.
Yes, The APT Is Testable
Authors: DYBVIG PHILIP H. , ROSS STEPHEN A. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThe Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) has been proposed as an alternative to the mean‐variance Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). This paper considers the testability of the APT and points out the irrelevance for testing of the approximation error. We refute Shanken's objections, including his assertion that Roll's critique of the CAPM is applicable to the APT. We also explain the testability of the APT on subsets, and we explore the relationship between the APT and the CAPM.
A Sequential Signalling Model of Convertible Debt Call Policy
Authors: HARRIS MILTON , RAVIV ARTUR 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTIn this paper we attempt to resolve two puzzles concerning convertible debt calls. The first is that although it has been shown that conversion of these bonds should optimally be forced as soon as this is feasible, actual calls are significantly delayed relative to this prescription. The second is that common stock returns are significantly negative around the announcement of the call of a convertible debt issue. Our purpose is to simultaneously rationalize managers' observed call decisions and the market's reaction to them in a framework in which managers behave optimally given their private information, compensation schemes, and investors' reactions to their call decisions. Moreover, investors' reactions are rational in the sense of Bayes' rule given managers' call policy. In equilibrium, a decision to call is (correctly) perceived by the market as a signal of unfavorable private information. In addition to rationalizing observed call delays and negative stock returns at call announcement, several other testable implications are derived.
Options on the Spot and Options on Futures
Authors: BRENNER MENACHEM , COURTADON GEORGES , SUBRAHMANYAM MARTI 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis paper analyzes and compares the valuation of two types of options that relate to the same asset: options on the asset itself and options on the futures on the asset. The early exercise privilege plays a central role in explaining the differences between the values of the two options. It is shown that in the case of a cash instrument that does not make interim payments, such as gold, the value of a call option on the spot is smaller than the call option on the futures contract; the opposite is true for put options. The early exercise boundaries, which characterize when it pays to exercise, are also compared and analyzed.
Dispersion of Financial Analysts' Earnings Forecasts and the (Option Model) Implied Standard Deviations of Stock Returns
Authors: AJINKYA BIPIN B. , GIFT MICHAEL J. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis study examines whether the information implied by simultaneous levels of option and stock prices (specifically, the implied standard deviation of returns) reflects other contemporaneously available information. The independent contemporaneous measure considered is the observed dispersion (across several financial analysts), at a point in time, in the forecasts of earnings per share for a given firm. The results indicate that implied standard deviations clearly reflect the contemporaneous dispersion in analysts' forecasts incrementally, i.e., beyond the information contained in the historical time series of returns.
The Rule 415 Experiment: Equity Markets
Authors: BHAGAT SANJAI , MARR M. WAYNE , THOMPSON G. RODNEY 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTRule 415 allows a firm to register all the securities it reasonably expects to sell over the next two years and then, at the management's option, to sell those securities over these two years whenever it chooses. This paper examines whether equity offerings made under Rule 415 (shelf offerings) differ in issuing costs from equity offerings not sold under this rule. We find that shelf offerings cost 13% less for syndicated issues and 51% less for nonsyndicated issues. We also investigate the empirical relevance of the market overhang argument which suggests that shelf registrations depress the price of the registering firm's shares more than traditional registrations. Our data does not support the market overhang argument.
Moral Hazard and Information Sharing: A Model of Financial Information Gathering Agencies
Authors: MILLON MARCIA H. , THAKOR ANJAN V. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTWe propose a theory of information gathering agencies in a world of informational asymmetries and moral hazard. In a setting in which true firm values are certified by screening agents whose payoffs depend on noisy ex post monitors of information quality, the formation of information gathering agencies (groups of screening agents) is justified on two grounds. First, it enables screening agents to diversify their risky payoffs. Second, it allows information sharing. The first effect itself is insufficient despite the risk aversion of screening agents and the stochastic independence of the monitors used to compensate them.
Reformulating Tax Shield Valuation: A Note
Authors: MILES JAMES A. , EZZELL JOHN R. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTStandard financial theory (in the absence of agency costs and personal taxes) implies that each dollar of debt contributes to the value of the firm in proportion to the firm's tax rate. To derive this result, incremental debt is assumed permanent. This paper shows that when the firm acts to maintain a constant market value leverage ratio, the marginal value of debt financing is much lower than the corporate tax rate. Since Hamada's [2] unlevering procedure for observed equity betas was derived under the assumption of permanent debt, we derive an unlevering procedure consistent with the assumption of a constant leverage ratio.
The Use of Electronic Funds Transfers to Capture the Effects of Cash Management Practices on the Demand for Demand Deposits: A Note
Authors: DOTSEY MICHAEL 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThe rapidly increasing use of more sophisticated cash management practices is a factor influencing the demand for money that is not considered in standard models of money demand. Within the framework of an inventory theoretic model of money demand, this paper provides theoretical grounds for using the number of electronic funds transfers as an indication of increasing cash management sophistication. Specifically, the demand for demand deposits is determined from the solution of a simultaneous equation system that also determines the optimal level of cash management. Therefore, the level of cash management services influences transactions costs, implying that transactions costs are endogenous. The number of electronic funds transfers is closely linked to the level of cash management services and is therefore related to transactions costs. Models of money demand that treat transactions costs as exogenous and fixed are therefore misspecified and will not perform well when transactions costs are changing. By explicitly incorporating the changing nature of transactions costs through the use of electronic funds transfers, the problems of instability and poor predictive power associated with the demand for money in the 1970's are overcome.
Derivation of the Capital Asset Pricing Model without Normality or Quadratic Preference: A Note
Authors: KWON YOUNG K. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTDerivation of the capital asset pricing model requires various assumptions including normality or quadratic preference. The objective of this note is to show that the normality or quadratic preference assumption can be replaced by the fair game condition that assets' residual returns have zero mean conditional upon the return of the market portfolio.
On Jumps in Common Stock Prices and Their Impact on Call Option Pricing
Authors: BALL CLIFFORD A. , TOROUS WALTER N. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThe Black‐Scholes call option pricing model exhibits systematic empirical biases. The Merton call option pricing model, which explicitly admits jumps in the underlying security return process, may potentially eliminate these biases. We provide statistical evidence consistent with the existence of lognormally distributed jumps in a majority of the daily returns of a sample of NYSE listed common stocks. However, we find no operationally significant differences between the Black‐Scholes and Merton model prices of the call options written on the sampled common stocks.
Risk Aversion and Arbitrage
Authors: GREEN RICHARD C. , SRIVASTAVA SANJAY 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis paper characterizes conditions under which asset returns and consumption are consistent with risk‐averse preferences. It is shown that risk aversion is equivalent to “zero arbitrage” on a transformation of the payoff space. The implicit state prices which are dual to this no‐arbitrage condition can be interpreted as prices of “pure consumption hedges.” This zero‐arbitrage restriction implies the usual restrictions associated with nonsatiation. The analysis holds in both complete and incomplete market settings.
A Simple Econometric Approach for Utility‐Based Asset Pricing Models
Authors: BROWN DAVID P. , GIBBONS MICHAEL R. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTUtility‐based models of asset pricing may be estimated with or without assuming a distribution for security returns; both approaches are developed and compared here. The chief strength of a parametric estimator lies in its computational simplicity and statistical efficiency when the added distributional assumption is true. In contrast, the nonparametric estimator is robust to departures from any particular distribution, and it is more consistent with the spirit underlying utility‐based asset pricing models since the distribution of asset returns remains unspecified even in the empirical work. The nonparametric approach turns out to be easy to implement with precision nearly indistinguishable from its parametric counterpart in this particular application. The application shows that log utility is consistent with the data over the period 1926–1981.
The Analytics of Performance Measurement Using a Security Market Line
Authors: DYBVIG PHILIP H. , ROSS STEPHEN A. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTSecurity market line (SML) analysis, while an important tool, has never been fully justified from a theoretical standpoint. Assuming symmetric information and an inefficient index, we show that SML analysis can be grossly misleading, since, in general, efficient and inefficient portfolios can plot above and below the SML. On a more positive note, if SML analysis uses the return on a marketed riskless asset for the zero‐beta rate, efficient portfolios must plot above the SML. Nonetheless, arbitrarily inefficient portfolios also plot above the SML.
Adjustment Costs and Capital Asset Pricing
Authors: HUFFMAN GREGORY W. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTDiscrete‐time models of asset pricing have hitherto generally avoided studying the relationship between the underlying technology inherent in the economy and the determinants of the price of capital. A fully articulated economy is constructed in which there is a nontrivial technology for producing capital. The existence of adjustment costs in augmenting the quantity of capital has interesting implications for the stochastic properties of asset prices, as well as other macroeconomic variables. Examples of such economies are used to illustrate this point.
A Theoretical Analysis of Real Estate Returns
Authors: FOGLER H. RUSSELL , GRANITO MICHAEL R. , SMITH LAURENCE R. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTIn this paper, we consider two hypotheses for the recent performance of real estate returns. The first is the random event argument that real estate is positively correlated with unanticipated inflation but that structural change in expected returns due to a change in the perceived sensitivity of returns to unanticipated inflation has not taken place. The second is the hedge demand argument that formulates the structural shift hypothesis. The paucity of real estate and other expectations data as well as the general identification problem make it extremely difficult to distinguish between these hypothesis. Our tests consist of estimates of inflation betas for various asset categories overtime as well as estimates of the hedge vector, . Although some support for the hedge argument is found, the results are not strong enough to reject the random event argument and conclude that a decline in the required return on real estate due to a relative increase in inflation beta drove returns during the 1970's.
An Investigation of Transactions Data for NYSE Stocks
Authors: WOOD ROBERT A. , McINISH THOMAS H. , ORD J. KEITH 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTUsing transactions data, the behavior of returns and characteristics of trades at the micro level is examined. A minute‐by‐minute market return series is formed and tested for normality and autocorrelation. Evidence of differences in return distributions is found among overnight trades, trades during the first 30 minutes following the market opening, trades at the close, and trades during the remainder of the day. The latter distribution is found to be normal. Unusually high returns and standard deviations of returns are found at the beginning and the end of the trading day. When the beginning‐and end‐of‐the‐day effects are omitted, autocorrelation in the market return series is reduced substantially. A number of patterns in trading are reported.
In Defense of Technical Analysis
Authors: TREYNOR JACK L. , FERGUSON ROBERT 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTMany investors occasionally receive what they believe to be nonpublic information about a security. Others feel that by applying superior analytical skills to public information, they are able to arrive at valuable insights that are not generally appreciated. In either case, there is a substantial opportunity for profit if the investor is correct. The investor must be correct on two counts. First, the estimate of the worth of the information must be reasonably accurate in terms of its impact on the price of the stock, and second, the investor must make a realistic assessment of the likelihood that the market already has received the information or insight in question. This paper is concerned only with the latter problem. The probability distribution of the date on which the market receives information already in the hands of the investor is calculated for a simple model of information propagation. It is then shown how this probability distribution can be brought to bear on the management of a portfolio.
Risk A version and Information Structure: An Experimental Study of Price Variability in the Securities Markets
Authors: ANG JAMES S. , SCHWARZ THOMAS 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis study investigates the differences in the behaviors between the speculative investors and the conservative investors in two separate experimental markets. Although the market for speculators shows greater price volatility in both bid/ask spread within a trade as well as with intraperiod variances, it exhibits several desirable properties. Specifically, the price patterns tend to converge closer, and at a greater speed to either the prior information equilibrium price or the rational expectation equilibrium price. It also achieves better allocational efficiency. And, it is also less likely to be misled by potentially “false” price information.
Spinoff/Terminations and the Value of Pension Insurance
Authors: MARCUS ALAN J. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis paper derives the value of Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation (PBGC) pension insurance under two scenarios of interest. The first allows for voluntary plan termination, which appears to be legal under current statutes. In the second scenario, termination is prohibited unless the firm is bankrupt. Empirical estimates of PBGC liabilities are calculated. These show that prospective PBGC liabilities greatly exceed current reserves for plan terminations, that even under a bankruptcy‐only termination rule, PBGC liabilities still would be quite sensitive to discretionary funding policy, and that the increasingly common practice of pension spinoff/terminations, substantially increases the present value of the PBGC's contingent liabilities.
Depositors' Welfare, Deposit Insurance, and Deregulation
Authors: CHAN YUK‐SHEE , MAK KING‐TIM 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTWe develop an analytical model to address the question of optimal deposit insurance policy and to examine the impact of deregulation on depositors' welfare and the soundness of the insurance system. We find that the optimal level of regulation depends critically on the functional relationship between risk and return. We show that in general deregulation of bank activities and/or of deposit rate ceilings will in volve tradeoff between depositors' welfare and the soundness of the insurance system. Our analysis also indicates that risk‐sensitive premium and capital requirement schedules may not be efficient in managing the risk of banks.