bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Determinants of United Kingdom General Insurance Company Performance
Authors: Shiu Y. 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTDynamic financial analysis has become one of the important tools that actuaries use to model the underwriting and investment operations of insurance companies. The first step in carrying out the analysis is to investigate the most important factors affecting company performance. This paper identifies the determinants of the performance of United Kingdom general insurance companies using a panel data set consisting of economic data and Financial Services Authority/Department of Trade and Industry returns over the period 1986 to 1999. Three performance measures are used to capture different aspects of insurance operations. These measures are related to a number of economic and firm specific variables, chosen on the basis of relevant theory and literature. An ordinary least squares regression model and two panel data models are estimated for each of three performance measures. This paper also addresses several important econometric problems that are usually ignored in applied work in the context of panel data analysis. Based on the empirical results, this study finds that liquidity, unexpected inflation, interest rate level and underwriting profits are statistically significant determinants of the performance of U.K. general insurers.
Notes on Options, Hedging, Prudential Reserves and Fair Values
Authors: Wilkie A. D. , Owen M. P. , Waters H. R. 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTIn this paper we present many investigations into the results of simulating the process of hedging a vanilla option at discrete times. We consider mainly a ‘maxi’ option (paying Max(A, B)), though calls, puts and ‘minis’ are also considered. We show the sensitivity of the variability of the hedging error to the actual investment strategy adopted, and to the many ways in which the simulated real world can diverge from the assumed option pricing model. We show how prudential reserves can be calculated, using conditional tail expectations, and how net premiums or fair values (which we present as the same) can be calculated, allowing for the necessary prudential reserves. We use two bond models, the very simple Black-Scholes one and a less unrealistic one. We also use the Wilkie model as an even more realistic real-world model, allowing for many complications in it to make it more realistic. We make observations on the important difference between real-world models and option pricing models, and emphasise the latter as the way of getting hedging quantities, and not just option prices.
Computing Bonus–Malus Premiums under Partial Prior Information
Authors: Gómez-Déniz E. , Bermúdez L. , Morillo I. 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTThe use of classical bonus–malus systems entails very high maluses and other problems which, during recent years, have been criticised by actuaries. To avoid these problems, new bonus–malus models have been developed. For instance, it is well known that the use of an exponential loss function reduces the differences between overcharges and undercharges, solving the problem of high maluses. In order to measure the sensitivity of the exponential bonus–malus system, and according to robust Bayesian analysis, we first model the structure function by specifying a subclass of the generalised moments class. We then examine the range of relativities for each prior. Finally, we illustrate our method with a numerical example based on real data.
Address by The President of the Faculty of Actuaries
Authors: Brown Harvie Walker 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTThis Presidential Address takes place at a time of great change for the Actuarial Profession, not least the review of the Actuarial Profession by Sir Derek Morris and his team. The Address concentrates on the changes that the Actuarial Profession, like many other professions, needs to address from a professional perspective in the 21st century. Key aspects such as peer review, monitoring of compliance with standards, CPD and revalidation of a member's competence are considered and the changes that need to be made in these areas outlined. A review of the complicated area of Conflicts of Interest as it impacts on the work of actuaries, especially in today's business environment and the high expectations of clients, points towards the need for additional professional guidance in this area. The need for an Independent Actuarial Standards Board with a significant non-actuarial membership to take responsibility for the standard setting process of the Actuarial Profession is a necessity going forward.
Current Developments in Embedded Value Reporting
Authors: O'Keeffe P. J. L. , Desai A. J. , Foroughi K. , Hibbett G. J. , Maxwell A. F. , Sharp A. C. , Taverner N. H. , Ward M. B. , Willis F. J. P. 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTThis paper reviews the developments in reporting of traditional embedded value and summarises some of the reasons why this is now undergoing change. It considers the purpose of an embedded value calculation and the effect of differing attitudes to risk. It comments on the recently developed European Embedded Value Principles and sets out the main areas where scope remains to apply judgement.The paper proposes the market-consistent embedded value framework as a way forward to help provide guidance in some of these areas, in particular on the choice of discount rate and on calibration of stochastic techniques used to value embedded options and guarantees. The paper recognises that market-consistent embedded values are in relative infancy and sets out areas for possible future development.
On the Graduation of ‘Amounts’
Authors: Renshaw A.E. , Hatzopoulos P. 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTThe provision of graduated mortality rates, for the United Kingdom pensioners' experience, based on the so-called ‘amounts’ data sets is addressed. Specifically a methodology is investigated, building on the existing methods practiced by the CMI Bureau, which takes a more detailed account of the underlying structure of the data involved. The method is applied to the U.K. pensioners' experience and recent mortality trends in this experience revealed.
The Modelling of Recent Mortality Trends in United Kingdom Male Assured Lives
Authors: Renshaw A.E. , Haberman S. , Hatzopoulos P. 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTDeaths and exposures by individual calendar year and individual years of age for the U.K. male assured lives experience over the recent past are comprehensively modelled using generalised linear modelling techniques. Our principal objective is to develop a model which incorporates both the age variation in mortality and the underlying time trends in the mortality rates. The approach has considerable advantages overad hocmethods of fitting parametric models to represent the age variation in mortality and then separately attempting to represent the time trends in the parameters of these models. The approach advocated can be seen as an extension to the conventional parametric graduation techniques used by the CMI Bureau to represent trends in mortality.
Recent Developments in Life Office Financial Reporting
Authors: Gallen M.C. , Kipling M.R. 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTThe European Community 3rd Life and Insurance Accounts Directives have necessitated changes to United Kingdom life insurers' statutory solvency valuations and published accounts. This paper details these, together with associated guidance. It also describes certain other developments in U.K. life office financial reporting and discusses some inter-professional issues.
Ruin Problems: Simulation or Calculation?
Authors: Dickson D.C.M. , Waters H.R. 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTIn this paper we use a case study of a non-life insurance portfolio to demonstrate how recent research in ruin theory can be applied to solvency problems. By approximating the aggregate claims distribution for the portfolio by a translated gamma distribution, we estimate ruin probabilities through a recursive procedure when the insurer earns investment income on its surplus. We also show the results of applying simulation techniques to this problem, and discuss some advantages and disadvantages of simulation as a means of assessing ruin probabilities. Finally we discuss the calculation of the probability of ruin at the end of a specified time period.
Stochastic Investment Modelling: The Case of South Africa
Authors: Thomson R.J. 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTThe purpose of this paper is to describe a methodology for determining an appropriate structure for time-series models of inflation rates, short-term and long-term interest rates, dividend growth rates, dividend yields, rental growth rates and rental yields and to demonstrate the application of that methodology to the development of a model based on South African data. It is suggested that the methodology used in this paper may be applied to other economic environments.
The Myners Review and Subsequent Issues
Authors: Myners P. 
Published: June 2011

INTRODUCTIONAn Open Meeting was held by the Faculty of Actuaries on 15 October 2001, when Mr Myners addressed his audience on a number of the issues raised in his review, Institutional Investment in the United Kingdom: a Review. This was followed by a discussion. The lecture and an abstract of the discussion are printed after this introduction.A second meeting on the subject was held on 16 October. This was a joint Seminar, arranged by the Faculty of Actuaries and the Centre for Financial Markets Research, University of Edinburgh. This seminar covered a number of issues raised by the Myners Review. The purpose of the seminar was to open up to discussion a number of the issues raised by the review where there appeared to be differences of opinion amongst practitioners. In particular, the investment process, investment performance and fees, especially commissions, were discussed. Academics, investment, performance measurement and pension specialists attended the seminar.
Fair Valuation of Liabilities
Authors: Hairs C.J. , Belsham D.J. , Bryson N.M. , George C.M. , Hare D.J.P. , Smith D.A. , Thompson S. 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTA project to develop an Accounting Standard for Insurance, with the aim of enhancing understandability, relevance, reliability and comparability of general purpose financial reporting for insurance worldwide, is being progressed by the International Accounting Standards Board. The basis of the proposals is that assets and liabilities be shown at fair values (market values for quoted instruments). This paper, prepared by a Working Party established by the Life Board of the United Kingdom actuarial profession, summarises and comments upon a number of the principal features of the proposals, as they have emerged up to September 2001. The paper goes on to consider how a system of reporting for prudential regulatory purposes might be built upon a fair value general reporting base, summarising the thinking of a number of other bodies, proposing certain principles and suggesting lines of development. The appendices to the paper discuss a number of issues in further depth and present some illustrative results of some investigations into applying fair value methods in practice. The emphasis of the paper is on reporting for life assurance business, although many of the principles apply equally to general insurance.
Recent Mortality Trends in the Spanish Population
Authors: Felipe A. , Guillen M. , Perez-Marin A. M. 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTOur research deals with the way that calendar time affects mortality patterns in the Spanish population, and how this information can be used to elaborate predictions. A description of the observed mortality evolution has been worked out using data from 1975 to 1993. We have used Heligman-Pollard Law number two to model the evolution of Spanish mortality over the period and using univariate time series analysis, we have obtained a prognosis for years 1994 to 2010.
Natural Catastrophe Probable Maximum Loss
Authors: Woo G. 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTThe procedure for estimating probable maximum loss (PML) for natural catastrophes has evolved over the past few decades from a rather simplistic deterministic basis to a more sophisticated methodology based on loss exceedance probability curves, generated using catastrophe modelling software. This development process is reviewed, with an emphasis on the earthquake peril, which, because of its widespread threat to critical industrial installations, has been at the forefront of most PML advances. The coherent risk definition of PML is advocated as an improvement over standard quantile methods, which can give rise to anomalous aggregation results failing to satisfy the fundamental axiom of subadditivity, and so discouraging the pooling of risks.
A Stochastic Approach to Risk Management and Decision Making in Defined Benefit Pension Schemes
Authors: Haberman S. , Day C. , Fogarty D. , Khorasanee M. Z. , McWhirter M. , Nash N. , Ngwira B. , Wright I. D. , Yakoubov Y. 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTThe trustees and sponsors of defined benefit schemes rely on the advice of the Scheme Actuary to make important decisions concerning the funding of the scheme, the investment of its assets, and the use of surplus assets to improve benefits. These decisions have to be made in the face of considerable uncertainty about financial and demographic factors that will affect the future experience of the scheme and its success in meeting various objectives.The traditional actuarial valuation combined with actuarial judgement has played an important role in guiding decision making; but we argue that stochastic methods can add value in certain crucial areas, in particular the financial risk management of defined benefit schemes. Rather than dealing with risk by incorporating margins in the valuation basis, a stochastic approach allows the actuary to evaluate specific and quantifiable risk and performance measures for alternative funding and investment strategies.This paper recommends a framework that, when combined with a suitable stochastic model, measures the risks inherent in contribution rate and asset allocation decisions, allowing better decisions to be made. In doing this, we suggest and apply various risk and performance measures that may be thought appropriate, although our intention is to illustrate their use rather than prescribe them as objective standards. The framework provides the means to explore the trade-offs involved in possible contribution and asset allocation decisions, and points to decision strategies expected to give improved outcomes for the same level of risk. A feature of the approach that marks it out from current asset/liability techniques is that it examines the funding and investment decisions together. It does not derive a contribution rate in the traditional way, but leaves this as free variable, in the same way that the investment decision is taken to be a free variable. Another distinctive feature of our framework is that it is based on projection rather than on valuation, involving stochastic simulation of the experience of the scheme over a time horizon reflecting the concerns of the trustees and the sponsoring employer.The paper provides a case study (based on a model final salary pension scheme) showing the advantages of the framework, and goes on to explain how the results may practically be communicated to trustees and scheme sponsors.
Ruin Theory in a Discrete Time Risk Model with Interest Income
Authors: Sun L. , Yang H. 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTIn this paper we consider a discrete time insurance risk model with interest income. Using the recursive calculation method of De Vylder & Goovaerts (1988), recursive equations for the finite time ruin probabilities and the distribution of the time of ruin are derived. Fredholm type integral equations for the ultimate ruin probability, the distribution of the severity of ruin, the joint distribution of surplus before and after ruin, and the probability of absolute ruin are obtained. Numerical results are included.
Measuring and Managing the Economic Risks and Costs of With-Profits Business
Authors: Hibbert A.J. , Turnbull C.J. 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTThe approaches to liability valuation, assessment of prudential capital and measurement of profit for life offices are undergoing radical change. A common thread runs through all of these proposed changes — each change represents a move away from traditional actuarial approaches towards a more economically coherent, market-consistent approach. These changes should encourage a general improvement in the life industry's risk management processes. However, they will come at a cost. The measurement of the economic risks generated by the complex guarantees written by life offices is far more difficult than applying the latest resilience test equity fall. This will require a step change in the sophistication of life offices' risk and capital measurement and management know-how. The measurement of value, risk and capital will soon demand the application of ‘stochastic’ modelling tools. In this paper, we explore some of the issues raised by the application of these approaches to the valuation and risk management of with-profits business.
Genetics and Insurance– Some Social Policy Issues
Authors: Daykin C. D. , Akers D. A. , Macdonald A. S. , McGleenan T. , Paul D. , Turvey P. J. 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTRapid developments in genetic science have been accompanied by confusion regarding the predictive power of DNA-based tests and in the impact of such tests on the insurance industry. The United Kingdom actuarial profession has begun to engage in the associated social policy issues and to try to throw some light on the issues through quantitative research and objective analysis. At the same time, many insurance industry actuaries have been involved in work on behalf of the insurance industry to develop a sound basis for permission to be sought to make use of the results of certain predictive genetic tests. This paper briefly outlines some of the history of the development of the debate in the U.K. and draws together some of the debates and discussions which have taken place within the Genetics Group of the Social Policy Board of the U.K. actuarial profession, as well as providing some pointers to the directions which the debate might take in the future, with some important potential consequences for the insurance industry and for actuaries.
Highly Penetrant Genetic Disorders: An Atlas for Critical Illness Insurance
Authors: Macdonald A. S. , Yang S. Y. 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTFor estimates of critical illness (CI) insurance premiums in the presence of a known mutation leading to a genetic disorder, the key quantity is the penetrance, that is the probability q(x) that the disease has developed by age x. This function is often estimated in the genetics literature, though typically with large confidence intervals. In this paper we suggest that the main features of real penetrance functions can be represented reasonably well by simple one-parameter families of functions, which can be scaled to fit the age range and lifetime penetrance. This gives a simple, direct, pragmatic way to obtain quick estimates of CI premium rates from published penetrance estimates, and also some indicative bounds for such premium rates, which are useful since confidence intervals usually cannot be estimated. To aid this process, as a short-cut to the solution of Thiele's equations in a multiple-state model, we give extensive tables in another report (Macdonald & Yang, 2003).
The Measurement and Modelling of Commercial Real Estate Performance
Authors: Booth P. M. , Marcato G. 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTIn this paper we discuss methods of developing real estate indices, the availability of real estate data, the problems of using published real estate data and how real estate data can be used for stochastic investment modelling for actuarial purposes. In recent years there have been many developments in the collection, presentation and analysis of real estate data that have not found their way into the actuarial literature. We review those developments and suggest and develop ways in which raw real estate investment data can be used for actuarial purposes. We then review the Wilkie real estate stochastic investment model and use the research of real estate finance academics to inform a critique and development of that model. In developing the models, different data sets are used, including data from valuation-based and de-smoothed indices in order to find appropriate parameter estimates. The significance (or otherwise) of the parameter estimates is tested for each of the fitted models and the differences between the fitted models are examined. By reviewing research in the real estate finance field, making use of the latest research and developing original work, the main aim of this paper is to ensure that actuaries have the means to collect, understand and manipulate real estate data for performance measurement and investment modelling purposes.
The Importance of Year of Birth in Two-Dimensional Mortality Data
Authors: Richards S. J. , Kirkby J. G. , Currie I. D. 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTLate-life mortality patterns are of crucial interest to actuaries assessing longevity risk. One important explanatory variable is year of birth. We present the results of various analyses demonstrating this, including a statistical model which lends weight to the importance of year-of-birth effects in both population and insured data. We further find that a model based on age and year of birth fits United Kingdom mortality data better than a model based on age and period, suggesting that cohort effects are more significant than period effects. The financial implications of these cohort effects are considerable for portfolios with long-term longevity exposure, such as annuities written by insurance companies and defined benefit pension schemes.
The Recent Trend of Mortality in the United Kingdom
Authors: Daykin C. D. , Gallop A. P. 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTThis note continues a regular series on mortality rates in the United Kingdom. Mortality experienced in each of the years 1999 to 2004 is shown by five-year age groups, and comparisons are made for broad age groups, on a standardised basis, with mortality in earlier years.
Simulating the Relative Solvency of Life Insurers
Authors: Hardy M.R. 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTIn this paper a stochastic model office offering UK-style life insurance contracts is used to demonstrate the effect on relative solvency of different investment and bonus strategies. Relative solvency is defined loosely as the probability that an individual insurer does not fall significantly out of line with the rest of the life insurance market, in terms of, for example, asset liability ratios, or payouts to with-profit policyholders. The model uses the Wilkie investment model, extended to incorporate variation between companies in equity performance.
Ownership of the Inherited Estate (the Orphan Estate)
Authors: Smaller S.L. , Drury P. , George C.M. , O'Shea J.W. , Paul D.R.L. , Pountney C.V. , Rathbone J.C.A. , Simmons P.R. , Webb J.H. 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTIn recent years there has been increasing interest in clarifying the respective interests of shareholders and participating policyholders in the inherited estate of the proprietary life offices. This paper defines the inherited estate, considers the sources of surplus contributing to it and suggests an approach for quantifying it. Views are expressed on the attribution of the inherited estate to the parties involved with a view to a consensus emerging from a discussion of the underlying factors. The role of the supervisory authorities and of the Appointed Actuary and the independent actuary are considered and methods of accessing the inherited estate attributed to shareholders are examined.