bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Are Stock Returns Predictable? A Test Using Markov Chains
Authors: MCQUEEN GRANT , THORLEY STEVEN 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis paper uses a Markov chain model to test the random walk hypothesis of stock prices. Given a time series of returns, a Markov chain is defined by letting one state represent high returns and the other represent low returns. The random walk hypothesis restricts the transition probabilities of the Markov chain to be equal irrespective of the prior years. Annual real returns are shown to exhibit significant nonrandom walk behavior in the sense that low (high) returns tend to follow runs of high (low) returns in the postwar period.
The Theory of Capital Structure
Authors: HARRIS MILTON , RAVIV ARTUR 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis paper surveys capital structure theories based on agency costs, asymmetric information, product/input market interactions, and corporate control considerations (but excluding tax‐based theories). For each type of model, a brief overview of the papers surveyed and their relation to each other is provided. The central papers are described in some detail, and their results are summarized and followed by a discussion of related extensions. Each section concludes with a summary of the main implications of the models surveyed in the section. Finally, these results are collected and compared to the available evidence. Suggestions for future research are provided.
Taxes and the Capital Structure of Partnerships, REIT's, and Related Entities
Authors: JAFFE JEFFREY F. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTAcademic finance has explored the effect of taxes on corporate capital structure in great detail. By contrast, the effect of taxes on the capital structure of partnerships, REIT's, and related entities has received little attention. The present paper shows that, under general conditions, the values of partnerships and REIT's are invariant to leverage, contradicting the sparse literature in the area. A proof similar to that of Modigliani‐Miller is employed. The effect of real world imperfections is also examined.
Arbitrage Asset Pricing under Exchange Risk
Authors: IKEDA SHINSUKE 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis paper extends the APT to an international setting. Specifying a linear factor return‐generating model in local currency terms, we show that the usual risk‐diversification rule in the APT does not yield a riskless portfolio unless currency fluctuations obey the same factor model as asset returns. We then consider an arbitrage portfolio whose exchange risk is hedged by foreign riskless bonds. Under the resulting no‐arbitrage conditions, the expected returns are not on the same hyperplane, unlike the closed‐economy APT, unless they are adjusted by the cost of exchange risk hedging.
The Role of Acquisitions in Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence from the U.S. Stock Market
Authors: HARRIS ROBERT S. , RAVENSCRAFT DAVID 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis paper examines foreign direct investment by studying shareholder wealth gains for 1273 U.S. firms acquired during the period 1970‐1987. Three findings stand out. First, cross‐border takeovers are more frequent in research and development intensive industries than are domestic acquisitions; furthermore, in three‐fourths of cross‐border transactions the buyer and seller are in related industries. These industry patterns suggest that costs and imperfections in product markets play an important role in foreign direct investment. Second, targets of foreign buyers have significantly higher wealth gains than do targets of U.S. firms. This cross‐border effect is comparable in size to the wealth effects of all‐cash and multiple bids, two effects receiving substantial attention in the finance literature, and is robust to inclusion of these two variables. Third, while the cross‐border effect on wealth gains is not well explained by industry and tax variables, it is positively related to the weakness of the U.S. dollar, indicating a significant role for exchange rate movements in foreign direct investment.
Venture Capitalist Certification in Initial Public Offerings
Authors: MEGGINSON WILLIAM L. , WEISS KATHLEEN A. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis paper provides support for the certification role of venture capitalists in initial public offerings. Consistent with the certification hypothesis, a comparison of venture capital backed IPOs with a control sample of nonventure capital backed IPOs from 1983 through 1987 matched as closely as possible by industry and offering size indicates that venture capital backing results in significantly lower initial returns and gross spreads. In effect, the presence of venture capitalists in the issuing firms serves to lower the total costs of going public and to maximize the net proceeds to the offering firm. In addition, we document that venture capitalists retain a significant portion of their holdings in the firm after the IPO.
Diagnosing Asset Pricing Models Using the Distribution of Asset Returns
Authors: SNOW KARL N. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis paper develops a set of diagnostic tests which can shed light on why a particular model is failing and indicate what steps might be taken to make the model consistent with asset returns. Theoretical bounds on the moments of a stochastic discount factor are derived as a function of the moments of observed asset returns. Particular attention is paid to restrictions on moments other than the variance. These bounds can also be used to measure the information about the distribution of the discount factor contained in the moments of various asset returns. As an application of this methodology, bounds on the discount factor are estimated using size‐based portfolios, and the results are used to analyze the small firm effect. Empirical results indicate, for the period 1926–1975, that moments of the returns of small firms contain information about the discount factor that is not contained in the moments of the returns of large firms and/or a proxy of the aggregate wealth portfolio. However, this difference disappears when more recent data is included.
The Effect of Volatility Changes on the Level of Stock Prices and Subsequent Expected Returns
Authors: HAUGEN ROBERT A. , TALMOR ELI , TOROUS WALTER N. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis paper estimates volatility changes in daily returns to the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the sample period 1897 through 1988. This allows a direct investigation of the reaction of the level of stock prices and subsequent expected returns to these estimated changes in volatility. We provide empirical evidence consistent with relatively large and systematic revisions in stock prices and subsequent expected returns to volatility changes. However, there appears to be an asymmetry in the market's reaction to volatility increases as opposed to volatility decreases. A majority of our volatility changes cannot be associated with the release of significant economic information.
Option Prices and the Underlying Asset's Return Distribution
Authors: GRUNDY BRUCE D. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis work examines the relation between option prices and the true, as opposed to risk‐neutral, distribution of the underlying asset. If the underlying asset follows a diffusion with an instantaneous expected return at least as large as the instantaneous risk‐free rate, observed option prices can be used to place bounds on the moments of the true distribution. An illustration of the paper's results is provided by the analysis of the information concerning the mean and standard deviation of market returns contained in the prices of S&P 100 Index Options.
Default Premiums in Commodity Markets: Theory and Evidence
Authors: BAILEY WARREN , NG EDWARD 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTWe model the effect of nonperformance risk on forward and futures pricing and look for evidence of nonperformance risk in precious metals futures prices from the “Hunt Brothers”episode. Changes in default premiums are measured and related to the sequence of events in the metals markets during this period. Results suggest first that ex ante costs of nonperformance can be a significant, priced factor in commodity markets and second that the arrival of new information is often associated with changes in these costs. The evidence has implications for both theoretical and empirical research on commodity markets.
A Theory of Workouts and the Effects of Reorganization Law*
Authors: GERTNER ROBERT , SCHARFSTEIN DAVID 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTWe present a model of a financially distressed firm with outstanding bank debt and public debt. Coordination problems among public debtholders introduce investment inefficiencies in the workout process. In most cases, these inefficiencies are not mitigated by the ability of firms to buy back their public debt with cash and other securities‐the only feasible way that firms can restructure their public debt. We show that Chapter 11 reorganization law increases investment, and we characterize the types of corporate financial structures for which this increased investment enhances efficiency.
The Losses Realized in Bank Failures
Authors: JAMES CHRISTOPHER 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis paper examines the losses realized in bank failures. Losses are measured as the difference between the book value of assets and the recovery value net of the direct expenses associated with the failure. I find the loss on assets is substantial, averaging 30 percent of the failed bank's assets. Direct expenses associated with bank closures average 10 percent of assets. An empirical analysis of the determinants of these losses reveals a significant difference in the value of assets retained by the FDIC and similar assets assumed by acquiring banks.
Disclosure, Liquidity, and the Cost of Capital
Authors: DIAMOND DOUGLAS W. , VERRECCHIA ROBERT E. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis paper shows that revealing public information to reduce information asymmetry can reduce a firm's cost of capital by attracting increased demand from large investors due to increased liquidity of its securities. Large firms will disclose more information since they benefit most. Disclosure also reduces the risk bearing capacity available through market makers. If initial information asymmetry is large, reducing it will increase the current price of the security. However, the maximum current price occurs with some asymmetry of information: further reduction of information asymmetry accentuates the undesirable effects of exit from market making.
Insider Trading around Dividend Announcements: Theory and Evidence
Authors: JOHN KOSE , LANG LARRY H. P. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThe informational role of strategic insider trading around corporate dividend announcements is studied based on the efficient equilibrium in a signalling model with endogenous insider trading. Insider trading immediately prior to the announcement of dividend initiations has significant explanatory power. For firms with insider selling prior to the dividend initiation announcement, the excess returns are negative and significantly lower than for the remaining firms (with no insider trading or just insider buying) as implied by our model. Another implication is that dividend increases may elicit a positive or negative stock price response depending on the firm's investment opportunities.
The Intra‐Industry Effects of Going‐Private Transactions
Authors: SLOVIN MYRON B. , SUSHKA MARIE E. , BENDECK YVETTE M. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTWe demonstrate that bids to take firms private generate significantly positive valuation effects for industry rivals of target firms. These valuation effects cannot reflect either synergy or monopoly since no consolidation of operating firms is involved in such transactions. Participation by buyout specialists in the bid does not significantly affect these gains. Bids by outsiders and bids by incumbent managers generate similar valuation effects for industry rivals. The effect on share prices of industry rivals is inversely related to the capitalized values of rival firms relative to the target firm. We also report valuation effects for target firms.
S&P 100 Index Option Volatility
Authors: HARVEY CAMPBELL R. , WHALEY ROBERT E. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTUsing transaction data on the S&P 100 index options, we study the effect of valuation simplifications that are commonplace in previous research on the timeseries properties of implied market volatility. Using an American‐style algorithm that accounts for the discrete nature of the dividends on the S&P 100 index, we find that spurious negative serial correlation in implied volatility changes is induced by nonsimultaneously observing the option price and the index level. Negative serial correlation is also induced by a bid/ask price effect if a single option is used to estimate implied volatility. In addition, we find that these same effects induce spurious (and unreasonable) negative cross‐correlations between the changes in call and put implied volatility.
Dynamic Stock Markets with Multiple Assets: An Experimental Analysis
Authors: O'BRIEN JOHN , SRIVASTAVA SANJAY 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTWe study the performance of the rational expectations hypothesis in multiperiod experimental markets with multiple assets. We find that the markets are generally inefficient from the point of view of full information aggregation. However, arbitrage relationships hold, and it is not possible to detect the informational inefficiency by using some standard tests of market efficiency. These findings suggest that the lack of arbitrage opportunities and the failure of common tests to reject inefficiency are not sufficient to conclude that a market is informationally efficient.
New Evidence on The January Effect Before Personal Income Taxes
Authors: JONES STEVEN L. , LEE WINSON , APENBRINK RUDOLF 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTWe examine the returns of stocks in Cowles Industrial Index before and after the introduction of personal income taxes in 1917. This is distinct from earlier studies because we cross‐sectionally analyze the relationship between the returns of the individual stocks and measures of tax‐loss selling potential and size. We find that excess returns at the turn‐of‐the‐year and for the month of January were not significant until after 1917. These results provide strong support for the tax‐loss selling hypothesis as an explanation for the January seasonal in the returns of small firms.
The Valuation Effects of Private Placements of Convertible Debt
Authors: FIELDS L. PAIGE , MAIS ERIC L. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTShare price reactions to announcements of 61 private placements of convertible debt securities are investigated and a significant positive average abnormal return of 1.80% is documented. This unique result contrasts with the negative average abnormal return associated with public sales of convertible debt securities. The positive effect on common shareholders' wealth appears to be related to the relative size of the private issue and unrelated to the degree to which the convertible bond is “out‐of‐the‐money” at issuance.
Long‐Lived Private Information and Imperfect Competition
Authors: HOLDEN CRAIG W. , SUBRAHMANYAM AVANIDHAR 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTWe develop a multi‐period auction model in which multiple privately informed agents strategically exploit their long‐lived information. We show that such traders compete aggressively and cause most of their common private information to be revealed very rapidly. In the limit as the interval between auctions approaches zero, market depth becomes infinite and all private information is revealed immediately. These results are in contrast to those of Kyle (1985) in which the monopolistic informed trader causes his information to be incorporated into prices gradually, and, when the interval between auctions is vanishingly small, market depth is constant over time.
Option Replication in Discrete Time with Transaction Costs
Authors: BOYLE PHELIM P. , VORST TON 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTOption replication is discussed in a discrete‐time framework with transaction costs. The model represents an extension of the Cox‐Ross‐Rubinstein binomial option pricing model to cover the case of proportional transaction costs. The method proceeds by constructing the appropriate replicating portfolio at each trading interval. Numerical values of these prices are presented for a range of parameter values. The paper derives a simple Black‐Scholes type approximation for the option prices with transaction costs and demonstrates numerically that it is quite accurate for plausible parameter values.
Swaps: Plain and Fanciful
Authors: LITZENBERGER ROBERT H. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThe outstanding face amount of plain vanilla interest rate swaps exceeds two trillion dollars. While pricing and hedging of such swaps appear to be quite simple, many existing theories are based on the incorrect characterization of a swap as a simple exchange of a fixed for a floating rate note. This characterization is not consistent with standarized swap contracts and the treatment of swaps in bankruptcy. This paper provides an alternative perspective on swaps.
Mergers and the Value of Antitrust Deterrence
Authors: ECKBO B. ESPEN 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTWhile the U.S. has pursued a vigorous antitrust policy towards horizontal mergers over the past four decades, mergers in Canada have until recently been permitted to take place in a virtually unrestricted antitrust environment. The absence of an antitrust overhang in Canada presents an interesting opportunity to test the conjecture that the rigid market share and concentration criteria of the U.S. policy effectively deters a significant number of potentially collusive mergers. The effective deterrence hypothesis implies that the probability of a horizontal merger being anticompetitive is higher in Canada than in the U.S. However, parameters in cross‐sectional regressions reject the market power hypothesis on samples of both U.S. and Canadian mergers. Judging from the Canadian evidence, there simply isn't much to deter.
Management Buyout Proposals and inside Information
Authors: LEE D. SCOTT 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis paper explores stock price behavior surrounding withdrawn buyout proposals to determine whether managers' proposal announcements reveal any information which is unrelated to the efficiency gains associated with completed buyouts. On average, firms whose managers withdraw buyout proposals do not sustain significantly positive stock price effects unless they receive subsequent acquisition bids. In addition, managers of firms with completed buyouts are no more likely to have access to inside information than managers who withdrew proposals. I interpret this evidence as inconsistent with the notion that inside information commonly motivates management buyout proposals.
Beatrice: A Study in the Creation and Destruction of Value
Authors: BAKER GEORGE P. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis paper chronicles the history of the Beatrice company from its founding in 1891 as a small creamery, through its growth by acquisition into a diversified consumer and industrial products firm, and its subsequent leveraged buyout and sell‐off. The paper analyzes the value consequences the firm's acquisition and divestiture policies, its organizational strategy, and its governance. The analysis sheds light on a number of issues in organization theory, strategy, and corporate finance, including the sources of value in diversifying aquisitions, the cost of over‐centralization and weak corporate governance, and the mechanisms of value creation in the market for corporate control.
Capital Structure as an Optimal Contract Between Employees and Investors
Authors: CHANG CHUN 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThe ex ante optimal contract between investors and employees is derived endogenously and is interpreted in terms of debt, equity, and employees' compensation. Although public equity financing is feasible in this model through verified accounting income, debt is needed to force value‐enhancing restructuring before the income realizes. The optimal debt level, however, is lower than that which maximizes the value of the firm when there is nonmonetary restructuring‐related cost to employees. The paper explains how stock prices react to exchange offers, how earnings can be diluted by a decrease in leverage, and why employees' claims are generally senior to those of investors. New testable implications about leverage and compensation levels are derived.
Optimal Contracting and Insider Trading Restrictions
Authors: FISCHER PAUL E. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTRestrictions on trading by insider agents are analyzed using an optimal contracting framework. Prohibition of insider trading is shown to be Pareto preferred if, and only if, a revelation or moral hazard problem exists. If prohibition of insider trading is valuable, then trade registration with a delay is shown to be as valuable as complete prohibition. Short selling restrictions, however, are generally of less value than complete prohibition. Finally, regulation of insider agent trading by governmental institutions and/or professional associations is discussed.
The Effect of Bond Rating Agency Announcements on Bond and Stock Prices
Authors: HAND JOHN R. M. , HOLTHAUSEN ROBERT W. , LEFTWICH* RICHARD W. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis paper examines daily excess bond returns associated with announcements of additions to Standard and Poor's Credit Watch List, and to rating changes by Moody's and Standard and Poor's. Reliably nonzero average excess bond returns are observed for additions to Standard and Poor's Credit Watch List when an expectations model is used to classify additions as either expected or unexpected. Bond price effects are also observed for actual downgrade and upgrade announcements by rating agencies. Excluding announcements with concurrent disclosures weakens the results for downgrades, but not upgrades. The stock price effects of rating agency announcements are also examined and contrasted with the bond price effects.
Interest Rate Volatility and the Term Structure: A Two‐Factor General Equilibrium Model
Authors: LONGSTAFF FRANCIS A. , SCHWARTZ EDUARDO S. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTWe develop a two‐factor general equilibrium model of the term structure. The factors are the short‐term interest rate and the volatility of the short‐term interest rate. We derive closed‐form expressions for discount bonds and study the properties of the term structure implied by the model. The dependence of yields on volatility allows the model to capture many observed properties of the term structure. We also derive closed‐form expressions for discount bond options. We use Hansen's generalized method of moments framework to test the cross‐sectional restrictions imposed by the model. The tests support the two‐factor model.
Arbitrage With Holding Costs: A Utility‐Based Approach
Authors: TUCKMAN BRUCE , VILA JEAN‐LUC 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTUnit time costs, or holding costs, are incurred in many arbitrage contexts. Examples include losing the use of short sale proceeds and lending funds at below market rates in reverse repurchase agreements. This paper analyzes the investment problem of a risk averse arbitrageur who faces holding costs. The model allows prices to deviate from “fundamental” values without allowing for riskless arbitrage opportunities. After characterizing an arbitrageur's optimal strategy, the model is examined in the context of the Treasury market. The analysis reveals that holding costs are an important friction in this market and that they can significantly affect arbitrageur behavior.