bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Rational Prepayments and the Valuation of Collateralized Mortgage Obligations
Authors: MCCONNELL JOHN J. , SINGH MANOJ 
Published: April 2012

AbstractThis article presents a procedure for evaluating collateralized mortgage obligation (CMO) tranches. The solution procedure is in the spirit of a dynamic programming problem in which an individual mortgagor's decision to prepay is the feedback control variable―the mortgagor seeks to minimize the value of the mortgage subject to refinancing costs. We employ a two‐step procedure to solve this dynamic programming problem. The first step uses an implicit finite difference backward solution procedure to determine the “optimal” prepayment boundary for a class of mortgagors, each of whom confronts the same proportional refinancing cost. This step is repeated for several different classes of mortgagors that differ in the level of refinancing costs that they confront. The outcome of this first step is a series of prepayment boundaries―one set of boundaries for each level of refinancing costs (i.e., one set of boundaries for each refinancing cost category of mortgagors). In the second step, the prepayment boundaries determined in the first step are used in conjunction with Monte Carlo simulation to value the CMO tranches. The essence of the second step is that when the simulated interest rate hits the boundary for a particular class, it triggers a prepayment scenario for that class of mortgagors. We conduct extensive sensitivity analysis to determine the robustness of this approach (and our solution procedure) to alternative single‐factor models of the term structure of interest rates and to alternative specifications of the distribution of refinancing cost levels confronted by mortgagors. The sensitivity analysis indicates that CMO tranche valuation is not particularly sensitive to alternative models of the term structure so long as the models are consistent with the current yield curve, but, even when alternative specifications of the refinancing cost categories generate nearly identical values for the collateral underlying the CMO (i.e., the generic mortgage‐backed securities), the resulting tranche values can differ widely between the two specifications. The results point out the importance of accurate estimation of the distribution of refinancing costs when the rational valuation model is used for the analysis of CMO tranches.
Market Microstructure and the Ex‐Date Return
Authors: CONRAD JENNIFER S. , CONROY ROBERT 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis article examines the role of measurement biases, due to order flow effects, in abnormal split ex‐day returns. We conjecture that postsplit orders consist of numerous small buyers and fewer larger sellers. This change in order flow causes closing prices to occur more frequently at the ask price, consistent with Maloney and Mulherin (1992) and Grinblatt and Keim (1991). In addition, this change causes specialists' spreads to increase, perhaps to offset larger average inventories. We examine both NYSE and NASDAQ samples and find that order flow biases can explain approximately 80 percent (48 percent) of the NYSE (NASDAQ) ex‐day return.
Market Statistics and Technical Analysis: The Role of Volume
Authors: BLUME LAWRENCE , EASLEY DAVID , O'HARA MAUREEN 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTWe investigate the informational role of volume and its applicability for technical analysis. We develop a new equilibrium model in which aggregate supply is fixed and traders receive signals with differing quality. We show that volume provides information on information quality that cannot be deduced from the price statistic. We show how volume, information precision, and price movements relate, and demonstrate how sequences of volume and prices can be informative. We also show that traders who use information contained in market statistics do better than traders who do not. Technical analysis thus arises as a natural component of the agents' learning process.
Trading Profits in Dutch Auction Self‐Tender Offers
Authors: KADAPAKKAM PALANI‐RAJAN , SETH SARABJEET 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTWe document abnormal trading profits in Dutch auction self‐tenders. Tender period profits—buying after announcement and selling just before expiration—are 1.74 percent (Bhagat, Brickley, and Lowenstein (1987) report similar profits for interfirm tenders). Buying just before expiration and tendering yields abnormal profits of 1.36 percent (Lakonishok and Vermaelen (1990) report 9 percent for fixed‐price self‐tenders using a filter rule). Total profits from buying just after announcement and tendering remain positive after adjusting for bid‐ask spreads. Trading profits are higher for smaller firms, and positively correlated with tender period unsystematic risk, suggesting that they arise due to the pricing of event risk.
Holiday Trading in Futures Markets
Authors: FABOZZI FRANK J. , MA CHRISTOPHER K. , BRILEY JAMES E. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTIn this paper, we find significantly higher preholiday returns in futures contracts compared to nonholiday returns. The findings are consistent with the inventory adjustment hypothesis, since higher preholiday returns associated with lower trading volume are most pronounced for exchange‐closed holidays. There is evidence of positive postholiday returns associated with higher trading volume for exchange‐open holidays. This is consistent with positive holiday sentiments. The holiday effect is uniquely independent: The magnitude of excess holiday returns is the largest among all seasonal variations.
Time‐Series Variation in Dividend Pricing
Authors: EADES KENNETH M. , HESS PATRICK J. , KIM E. HAN 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTEx‐dividend day returns vary over time. The ex‐day returns of high‐yield stocks are persistently positive for some time periods and negative for others; in contrast, ex‐day returns of low‐yield stocks are always positive and less variable. We are unable to explain the variation with changes in the tax code, but we do find a strong effect for the introduction of negotiated commissions. We find evidence that corporate dividend capturing is affecting ex‐day returns and confirm the findings of Gordon and Bradford (1980) that the price of dividends is countercyclical.
Security Analysis and Trading Patterns When Some Investors Receive Information Before Others
Authors: HIRSHLEIFER DAVID , SUBRAHMANYAM AVANIDHAR , TITMAN SHERIDAN 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTIn existing models of information acquisition, all informed investors receive their information at the same time. This article analyzes trading behavior and equilibrium information acquisition when some investors receive common private information before others. The model implies that, under some conditions, investors will focus only on a subset of securities (“herding”), while neglecting other securities with identical exogenous characteristics. In addition, the model is consistent with empirical correlations that are suggestive of oft‐cited trading strategies such as profit taking (short‐term position reversal) and following the leader (mimicking earlier trades).
Expected Returns, Time‐varying Risk, and Risk Premia
Authors: EVANS MARTIN D. D. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTA new empirical model for intertemporal capital asset pricing is presented that allows both time‐varying risk premia and betas where the latter are identified from the dynamics of the conditional covariance of returns. The model is more successful in explaining the predictable variations in excess returns when the returns on the stock market and corporate bonds are included as risk factors than when the stock market is the single factor. Although changes in the covariance of returns induce variations in the betas, most of the predictable movements in returns are attributed to changes in the risk premia.
Ex‐Day Behavior: Tax or Short‐Term Trading Effects
Authors: LASFER M. AMEZIANE 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis study examines the behavior of share prices around the ex‐dividend dates before and after the introduction of the 1988 Income and Corporation Taxes Act that reduced substantially the tax differential between dividends and capital gains in the United Kingdom. We find that, in the pre‐1988 period when the differential taxation of dividends and capital gains is high, ex‐day returns are positive and significant. In contrast, in the post‐1988 period, ex‐day returns are, in most cases, negative and insignificant. Further analysis reveals that, while ex‐day returns are significantly related to dividend yield and to the length of the settlement period, they are not affected by the commonly used measures of transaction costs, such as the bid‐ask spread and trading volume, or by the day of week, month of the year, type of dividend distribution, or number of days to the actual receipt of the cash dividend. We conclude that taxation affects significantly ex‐day share prices in the United Kingdom.
The Valuation of Cash Flow Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis
Authors: KAPLAN STEVEN N. , RUBACK RICHARD S. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis article compares the market value of highly leveraged transactions (HLTs) to the discounted value of their corresponding cash flow forecasts. For our sample of 51 HLTs completed between 1983 and 1989, the valuations of discounted cash flow forecasts are within 10 percent, on average, of the market values of the completed transactions. Our valuations perform at least as well as valuation methods using comparable companies and transactions. We also invert our analysis by estimating the risk premia implied by transaction values and forecast cash flows, and relating those risk premia to firm and industry betas, firm size, and firm book‐to‐market ratios.
Covenants and Collateral as Incentives to Monitor
Authors: RAJAN RAGHURAM , WINTON ANDREW 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTAlthough monitoring borrowers is thought to be a major function of financial institutions, the presence of other claimants reduces an institutional lender's incentives to do this. Thus loan contracts must be structured to enhance the lender's incentives to monitor. Covenants make a loan's effective maturity, and the ability to collateralize makes a loan's effective priority, contingent on monitoring by the lender. Thus both covenants and collateral can be motivated as contractual devices that increase a lender's incentive to monitor. These results are consistent with a number of stylized facts about the use of covenants and collateral in institutional lending.
Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance
Authors: PESARAN M. HASHEM , TIMMERMANN ALLAN 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis article examines the robustness of the evidence on predictability of U.S. stock returns, and addresses the issue of whether this predictability could have been historically exploited by investors to earn profits in excess of a buy‐and‐hold strategy in the market index. We find that the predictive power of various economic factors over stock returns changes through time and tends to vary with the volatility of returns. The degree to which stock returns were predictable seemed quite low during the relatively calm markets in the 1960s, but increased to a level where, net of transaction costs, it could have been exploited by investors in the volatile markets of the 1970s.
The Exchange Rate in the Presence of Transaction Costs: Implications for Tests of Purchasing Power Parity
Authors: SERCU PIET , UPPAL RAMAN , VAN HULLE CYNTHIA 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTWith transaction costs for trading goods, the nominal exchange rate moves within a band around the nominal purchasing power parity (PPP) value. We model the behavior of the band and of the exchange rate within the band. The model explains why there are below‐unity slope coefficients in regression tests of PPP, and why these increase toward unity under hyperinflation or with low‐frequency data. Our results are independent of the presence of nontraded goods in the economy.
Explaining Forward Exchange Bias…Intraday
Authors: LYONS RICHARD K. , ROSE ANDREW K. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTIntraday interest rates are zero. Consequently, a foreign exchange dealer can short a vulnerable currency in the morning, close this position in the afternoon, and never face an interest cost. This tactic might seem especially attractive in times of fixed‐rate crisis, since it suggests an immunity to the central bank's interest rate defense. In equilibrium, however, buyers of the vulnerable currency must be compensated on average with an intraday capital gain as long as no devaluation occurs. That is, currencies under attack should typically appreciate intraday. Using data on intraday exchange rate changes within the European Monetary System, we find this prediction is borne out.
Time‐Varying World Market Integration
Authors: BEKAERT GEERT , HARVEY CAMPBELL R. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTWe propose a measure of capital market integration arising from a conditional regime‐switching model. Our measure allows us to describe expected returns in countries that are segmented from world capital markets in one part of the sample and become integrated later in the sample. We find that a number of emerging markets exhibit time‐varying integration. Some markets appear more integrated than one might expect based on prior knowledge of investment restrictions. Other markets appear segmented even though foreigners have relatively free access to their capital markets. While there is a perception that world capital markets have become more integrated, our country‐specific investigation suggests that this is not always the case.
Returns from Investing in Equity Mutual Funds 1971 to 1991
Authors: MALKIEL BURTON G. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTSeveral recent studies suggest that equity mutual fund managers achieve superior returns and that considerable persistence in performance exists. This study utilizes a unique data set including returns from all equity mutual funds existing each year. These data enable us more precisely to examine performance and the extent of survivorship bias. In the aggregate, funds have underperformed benchmark portfolios both after management expenses and even gross of expenses. Survivorship bias appears to be more important than other studies have estimated. Moreover, while considerable performance persistence existed during the 1970s, there was no consistency in fund returns during the 1980s.
Price Reactions to Dividend Initiations and Omissions: Overreaction or Drift?
Authors: MICHAELY RONI , THALER RICHARD H. , WOMACK KENT L. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis article investigates market reactions to initiations and omissions of cash dividend payments. Consistent with prior literature we find that the magnitude of short‐run price reactions to omissions are greater than for initiations. In the year following the announcements, prices continue to drift in the same direction, though the drift following omissions is stronger and more robust. This post‐dividend initiation/omission price drift is distinct from and more pronounced than that following earnings surprises. A trading rule employing both samples earns positive returns in 22 out of 25 years. We find little evidence for clientele shifts in either sample.
What Constitutes Evidence of Discrimination in Lending?
Authors: FERGUSON MICHAEL F. , PETERS STEPHEN R. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTWe analyze a simple model of bank lending in order to ascertain what can be inferred from relative denial and default rates about lending discrimination. We show that if minority applicants are of lower average creditworthiness than majority applicants, then, contrary to a popular argument, a uniform, nondiscriminatory credit policy cannot simultaneously produce (i) higher denial rates for minority applicants, and (ii) equal default rates for minority and majority applicants. Moreover, we show that equality of denial or default rates always implies discrimination. In particular, equal denial (default) rates imply discrimination against majority (minority) applicants.
Venture Capitalists and the Oversight of Private Firms
Authors: LERNER JOSH 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis article examines the representation of venture capitalists on the boards of private firms in their portfolios. If venture capitalists are intensive monitors of managers, their involvement as directors should be more intense when the need for oversight is greater. I show that venture capitalists' representation on the board increases around the time of chief executive officer turnover, while the number of other outsiders remains constant. I also show that distance to the firm is an important determinant of the board membership of venture capitalists, as might be anticipated if the oversight of local firms is less costly than more distant businesses.
Backwardation in Oil Futures Markets: Theory and Empirical Evidence
Authors: LITZENBERGER ROBERT H. , RABINOWITZ NIR 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTOil futures prices are often below spot prices. This phenomenon, known as strong backwardation, is inconsistent with Hotelling's theory under certainty that the net price of an exhaustible resource rises over time at the rate of interest. We introduce uncertainty and characterize oil wells as call options. We show that (1) production occurs only if discounted futures are below spot prices, (2) production is non‐increasing in the riskiness of future prices, and (3) strong backwardation emerges if the riskiness of future prices is sufficiently high. The empirical analysis indicates that U.S. oil production is inversely related and backwardation is directly related to implied volatility.
Idiosyncratic Variation of Treasury Bill Yields
Authors: DUFFEE GREGORY R. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTI document a dramatic increase in the importance of two types of variation in Treasury bill yields beginning in the early 1980s. The first is idiosyncratic variation in individual short‐maturity (less than three months) bill yields. The second is a common component in Treasury bill yields that is not shared by yields on other instruments, such as short‐maturity privately‐issued instruments or longer‐maturity Treasury notes and bonds. Some evidence suggests the first type reflects increased market segmentation. These results have important implications for the calibration and testing of no‐arbitrage term structure models and interpreting tests of the expectations hypothesis.
Another Puzzle: The Growth in Actively Managed Mutual Funds
Authors: GRUBER MARTIN J. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTMutual funds represent one of the fastest growing type of financial intermediary in the American economy. The question remains as to why mutual funds and in particular actively managed mutual funds have grown so fast, when their performance on average has been inferior to that of index funds. One possible explanation of why investors buy actively managed open end funds lies in the fact that they are bought and sold at net asset value, and thus management ability may not be priced. If management ability exists and it is not included in the price of open end funds, then performance should be predictable. If performance is predictable and at least some investors are aware of this, then cash flows into and out of funds should be predictable by the very same metrics that predict performance. Finally, if predictors exist and at least some investors act on these predictors in investing in mutual funds, the return on new cash flows should be better than the average return for all investors in these funds. This article presents empirical evidence on all of these issues and shows that investors in actively managed mutual funds may have been more rational than we have assumed.
Cream‐Skimming or Profit‐Sharing? The Curious Role of Purchased Order Flow
Authors: EASLEY DAVID , KIEFER NICHOLAS M. , O'HARA MAUREEN 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTPurchased order flow refers to the practice of dealers or trading locales paying brokers for retail order flow. It is alleged that such agreements are used to “cream skim” uninformed liquidity trades, leaving the information‐based trades to established markets. We develop a test of this hypothesis, using a model of the stochastic process of trades. We then estimate the model for a sample of stocks known to be used in order purchase agreements that trade on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the Cincinnati Stock Exchange. Our main empirical result is that there is a significant difference in the information content of orders executed in New York and Cincinnati, and that this difference is consistant with cream‐skimming.
Why Do Markets Move Together? An Investigation of U.S.‐Japan Stock Return Comovements
Authors: KAROLYI G. ANDREW , STULZ RENÉ M. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis article explores the fundamental factors that affect cross‐country stock return correlations. Using transactions data from 1988 to 1992, we construct overnight and intraday returns for a portfolio of Japanese stocks using their NYSE‐traded American Depository Receipts (ADRs) and a matched‐sample portfolio of U. S. stocks. We find that U. S. macroeconomic announcements, shocks to the Yen/Dollar foreign exchange rate and Treasury bill returns, and industry effects have no measurable influence on U.S. and Japanese return correlations. However, large shocks to broad‐based market indices (Nikkei Stock Average and Standard and Poor's 500 Stock Index) positively impact both the magnitude and persistence of the return correlations.
Impact of the 1988 Basle Accord on International Banks
Authors: WAGSTER JOHN D. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThe ostensible purpose of the Basle Accord was to standardize bank‐capital regulations among the twelve leading industrial countries. Its ulterior goal was to “level the playing field” by eliminating a funding‐cost advantage of Japanese banks that had allowed them to capture more than one‐third of international lending. The wealth gain for Japanese bank shareholders was 31.63 percent. Wealth effects for shareholders of non‐Japanese banks were not significant. These results suggest that the Basle Accord did not eliminate the pricing advantage of Japanese banks, challenging the non‐Japanese regulators' contention that the regulation would help level the playing field.
Equilibrium Analysis of Portfolio Insurance
Authors: GROSSMAN SANFORD J. , ZHOU ZHONGQUAN 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTA martingale approach is used to characterize general equilibrium in the presence of portfolio insurance. Insurers sell to noninsurers in bad states, and general equilibrium requires that the risk premium rises to induce noninsurers to increase their holdings. We show that portfolio insurance increases price volatility, causes mean reversion in asset returns, raises the Sharpe ratio and volatility in bad states, and causes volatility to be correlated with volume. We also explain why out‐of‐the‐money S&P 500 put options trade at a higher volatility than do in‐the‐money puts.
Relative Pricing of Eurodollar Futures and Forward Contracts
Authors: GRINBLATT MARK , JEGADEESH NARASIMHAN 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTPast research explains observed spreads between futures and forward Eurodollar yields as being due to the futures contract's mark‐to‐market feature. We derive closed form solutions for this yield spread and show that, theoretically, it should be small. Also, differences in liquidity, taxation, and default risk cannot account for the large spreads observed. We also present evidence that the spreads, which are nonnegligible primarily in the first half of the sample period, are likely to be attributable to the mispricing of futures contracts relative to the forward rates and that the mispricing was gradually eliminated over time.