bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Persistance du chômage et insertion
Authors: Allaire Gilles , Cahuzac Éric , Tahar Gabriel 
Published: July 2012

Partant de données individuelles riches sur les trajectoires de 1 565 individus sortants de bas niveaux scolaires en 1986, nous étudions ici l’effet d’un passage en chômage (ou en inactivité) sur la probabilité de connaître de nouveau du chômage (ou de l’inactivité). Une technique robuste et un traitement original des problèmes de chevauchement nous permet de tester certains effets stylisés sur les trajectoires. Nous soulignons le caractère prédictif du chômage en début de vie active. Nous distinguons également un chômage plutôt d’exclusion en fin de période à opposer au chômage plutôt aléatoire de début de période. Enfin la qualité de l’insertion paraît déterminante dans la persistance du chômage, puisque les « mieux » insérés semblent protégés du chômage répété. Une distinction selon la zone du premier emploi montre des risques de chômage moins forts à la campagne.
Rotation de la main-d’oeuvre, allocations-chômage et emploi
Authors: Gavrel Frédéric 
Published: July 2012

Comme le remarque Phelps (1992), le traitement théorique de l’assurance-chômage n’est pas entièrement satisfaisant. En effet, il est généralement supposé que tous les chômeurs en bénéficient et ce, indépendamment des causes de la perte de leur emploi. Or, il est bien connu que, dans les systèmes existants, les allocations peuvent être refusées aux travailleurs qui quittent volontairement leur emploi ou qui sont licenciés pour faute.
Supposant que les allocations sont refusées aux agents licenciés pour « paresse » (donc pour faute), Atkinson (1995) montre que l’assurance-chômage a un effet d’incitation à l’effort qui est favorable à l’emploi.
L’objet de cet article est d’étudier l’influence des indemnités de chômage dans un modèle qui s’inspire de Phelps (1970) et Salop (1979). Suivant cette version de l’hypothèse du salaire efficient, les entreprises qui supportent les coûts de rotation de leur personnel, ont avantage à éviter les démissions. Les salaires sont alors soumis à une condition de no quitting qui explique le chômage. Supposant que les travailleurs démissionnaires ne perçoivent pas d’allocations, on montre que l’assurance-chômage diminue le chômage. En effet, les allocations deviennent ainsi une des caractéristiques des emplois et leur augmentation les rend plus attractifs.
Évolution des rapports entre les États débiteurs de l’Amérique latine et les créanciers occidentaux
Authors: Jedlicki Claudio 
Published: July 2012

This article is about the problem of the debt incurred by countries of Latin America, preference being given to the notion of net transfer of currency as being the main element which can explain relations between debtors and creditors. It shows that the recent evolution in the attitude of the debtor states, as has been apparent since the meeting at Quito, in January 1984, up to that at Mar del Plata in September 1984, is accounted for by the inversion of the flow of the net transfer of money. Latin America today has become a net exporter of currency.
Similarly, the future evolution between the pursuance of the monetary adjustment and the cessation of payment will be determined, in a large measure, by the scope and the meaning lying behind the net transfer of borrowed money. The economical, social and political consequences deriving from the actual reimbursement of the debt are such that they may promote the advent of regimes which will be compelled to implement deep structural reforms. Whether this comes about or not will depend a lot on the creditors.
Limnologie et télédétection : situation actuelle et développements futurs
Authors: Jaquet J. M. 
Published: July 2012

La télédétection satellitaire est un outil employé couramment et avec succès en océanographie. Il n'en va pas de même en limnologie, où les applications sont encore rares.
Par le moyen d'une revue bibliographique, nous tentons d'en analyser les raisons. Après une brève description de l'outil et des satellites en service, l'on met en évidence la spécificité des cibles aquatiques, caractérisées par une réflectance basse et une profondeur d'investigation variable. Ces particularités, jointes à la composition complexe des eaux intérieures, rendent impossible l'extension pure et simple, à la limnologie, des algorithmes développés en océanographie.
Néanmoins, nous montrons que la télédétection a été utilisée dans l'étude du bassin versant des lacs, ainsi que pour la cartographie de leurs limites, de la végétation aquatique, des courants, de la thermique et de la couleur de l'eau. Des modèles empiriques, exprimant la matière en suspension ou les paramètres de qualité de l'eau, ont été calculés et appliqués avec succès dans certains lacs.
On établit ensuite une typologie des difficultés rencontrées dans l'application de la télédétection à la limnologie : intrinsèques (complexité de la composition), technologiques (capteurs actuels non adaptés aux cibles aquatiques) et institutionnels (coûts élevés et manque de professionnels de ta télédétection dans les cercles limnologiques).
Finalement, l'on présente quelques propositions pratiques dans la perspective des nouveaux véhicules spatiaux et capteurs des années 90, qui devraient permettre une exploitation de l'énorme potentiel de la télédétection en limnologie.
Absorption et désorption du dioxyde de souffre par des gouttes d'eau de fort diamètre en chute.
Authors: Lépinasse E. , Marion M. , Guella S. , Alexandrova S. , Saboni A. 
Published: July 2012

Cet article concerne l’absorption et la désorption du SO2 par des gouttes d’eau de diamètre supérieur à 1mm en chute libre dans un mélange air-SO2 à faible et moyenne concentrations. Dans ce cas, le transfert résulte du couplage des résistances interne et externe à la goutte. Dans la phase liquide, un modèle local basé sur la vitesse de frottement inter faciale et le diamètre de la goutte permet le calcul du coefficient de transfert interne kl. Le coefficient de transfert externe kg dans la phase gazeuse est déterminé à l’aide d’une expression plus classique
Afin de valider le modèle, des investigations expérimentales sont menées en absorption et en désorption sur une colonne de 2.3 m de hauteur dans laquelle le temps de séjour des gouttes est de l’ordre de la seconde. Le présent modèle simule fort bien l’ensemble de ces expériences réalisées pour différents diamètres de goutte [2.04 ; 4.31] mm et différentes concentrations [100 ; 2000] ppm. Le modèle proposé est aussi comparé avec succès à des résultats expérimentaux de la littérature à faible et moyenne concentrations pour des temps de contact beaucoup plus grands.
Son domaine d’application couvre donc désormais l’absorption et la désorption du SO2 pour des concentrations comprises entre quelques ppm et quelque %.
Réflexions sur l’émergence d’une méthodologie de la planification prospective
Authors: Ozbekhan Hasan 
Published: July 2012

The recent work of a few thinkers in the United States and abroad shows with growing clarity that the idea of planning is beginning to crystallize, to have coherence and cohesiveness. This is an exciting as well as important development, especially if one remembers that the writers in question often approach the subject from quite radically differing angles of vision, from different backgrounds and from divergent intellectual commitments or personal biases. If, despite this, a convergence has become noticeable, it should be possible to think that beyond residual idiosyncracies of language and style, a planning methodology is emerging which appears capable of weaving manifold strands together into a common body of knowledge and application.
For the moment, such a methodology remains open-ended. It has not yet been formalized into doctrine, and it is possible, and perhaps to be hoped, that it will remain this way. Nevertheless, its overall configuration, its main concepts and phases are now sufficiently general, so that one can describe and discuss them without reference to specific cases. My aim in these pages is to do precisely that.
Introduction
Authors: Chung Joseph H. 
Published: July 2012

One of the most significant post-war development in economics has been the contribution of econometrics to the refinement of techniques of analysis. Econometrics is now an integral part of economics teaching in most of the known universities throughout the world and large econometric models are being used for economic policies in industrialized countries. The CANDIDE model (Canadian Disaggregated Inter-Departmental Econometric Model) is a medium-term policy oriented model and an indication of some degree of maturity in the Art of model building in CANADA.
The purpose of this special issue of L'Actualité Économique is to initiate undergraduate students in economics as well as the interested public to the model, to show how the model can be applied and finally to discuss some of its deficiencies. It is hoped that this special issue will be a useful tool for the teaching of econometrics in Canada. It has three parts. The first part comprising three papers, explains the nature and the characteristics of the model. The second part through five papers shows various applications of the model. Finally, in the third part, seven papers discuss some of the deficiencies of the major blocks of the model1.
1 Only the first two parts are included in this issue. The third part will be published in the next issue.
CANDIDE, un modèle économétrique
Authors: Waslander H. E. L. 
Published: July 2012

This introductory text deals in very general terms with CANDIDE and development and application of large models.
A brief sketch of the history of CANDIDE precedes a discussion of the extensive disaggregation and medium-term nature of CANDIDE; the two characteristics that set it apart from more traditional models.
From his experience with CANDIDE the author then comments on model design and model use. Development of multi-purpose models, in his view, consists of many difficult and often arbitrary choices. He warns against excessive disaggregation, and use of models as black boxes. Finally, he calls for co-ordination of impact studies.
Structures d’information et décision en équipe dans le système de distribution des soins
Authors: Haurie Alain 
Published: July 2012

In this paper one proposes a methodological framework for the study of information and decision structures in hospital management. With a particular reference to the control of nursing care demand and supply, various information and decision schemes are considered.
The concepts of disease dynamics, state of the hospital system, information, strategy are explored. It is shown how recent theoretical results dealing with the economics of information or team decision theory may serve to formulate and analyse some fundamental resource allocation problems.
Évaluation économique des programmes de remplacement de la main d’oeuvre expatriée dans les pays en voie de développement : étude du cas de la Côte-d’Ivoire
Authors: Monson Terry D. , Pursell Garry 
Published: July 2012

This study addresses several problems of educational policy posed by the replacement of highly skilled expatriates in the Ivory Coast's labor force. Conceptualizing expatriate replacement as an import-substitution activity in which Ivorian labor substitutes for previously imported labor services, the authors apply a modified Domestic Resource Cost (DRC) analysis to evaluate Ivorian secondary and university educational programs necessary to train the local labor.
This methodology, along with more conventional cost-benefit approach, confirms that education is economically desirable in the Ivory Coast and that resource allocation to the upper secondary level is especially warranted. Lower secondary education is useful in so far as it performs a conduit function for higher levels of training. The importance of university education will probably increase as the occupational-educational structure is upgraded through technological development. Finally, consideration should be given to instituting a system of tuition charges in order to equate social and private rates of return in upper secondary and university education.
Pauvreté et progrès technique en Amérique latine : une vue à long terme
Authors: Dudley Leonard , Garcia Norberto E. 
Published: July 2012

This study uses a simulation model of the Latin American economy in order to project the relationship between technical progress and income distribution over the 1970-2000 period. In the basic projections—an extrapolation of the present trends—a large number of urban and rural residents tend not to have access to the benefits of development. Alternative projections simulate the effects of policies aiming at i) the acceleration of growth, ii) the modification of the nature of technical progress, iii) the transfer of consumption. The impact of the two first policies is substantial, the main contribution of technological policies being a more equitable distribution of the benefits of growth.
Impact des incitations à l’investissement du gouvernement fédéral canadien dans le secteur manufacturier, de 1965 à 1974
Authors: Le Goff Jean-Pierre 
Published: July 2012

The Canadian federal government calls upon substantial fiscal incentives between 1965 to 1974 to increase the flow of capital expenditures in the manufacturing sector, in order to reduce regional disparities, to alleviate an excessive unemployment rate and to insure a higher growth rate. The objective of our research is to evaluate the effectiveness of these incentives in inducing larger investment expenditures. We use econometric investment functions based on neoclassical and "hybrid" models of firm behavior, applied to Canadian yearly manufacturing time series from 1946 to 1974.
The neoclassical and hybrid models agree that the incentives have a substantial impact during the years 65-69; and a marginal impact during the 69-74 years.
The neoclassical model explains the marginal impact of incentives in the 69-74 period by a displacement through time of investment projects; there is an acceleration-deceleration effect attributed to the incentives. Investment expenditures of the 69-74 period are submitted to an upward pressure because of the 69-74 incentives, and to a downward pressure because of a deceleration effect associated with the 65-69 incentives.
We conclude that the incentives are effective in the short run in stimulating investment expenditures (the mean lag of their impact is approximately eighteen months) but that an acceleration-deceleration effect shows up after three years.
Note sur quelques méthodes d’évaluation de l’inégalité dans la répartition des revenus par groupe, basées sur l’indice Gini
Authors: Frappier-Desrochers Monique , Morgan Ieuan , Ouellet Louise 
Published: July 2012

In this paper, we compare three methods presently used to split up the Gini index in order to evaluate the contribution of one particular factor (for example, age) to the value of this index: the B-M-P decomposition*, Paglin's measures and Love & Wolfson indexes. The problem with the decomposition of the Gini index is that it is impossible to cut it in two parts, one, representing the value of inequality attributable to the factor analysed and the second, inequality due to other factors. We also have to include the value of overlaps. This is clearly shown by Bhattacharya and Mahalanobis.
By using a very simple example for which we can forecast the results, we can compare the reaction registered by each method when we introduce a change in the distribution of income and consequently evaluate the lightness of these methods. We confirmed our convictions by decomposing two other measures which can be separated in the two parts mentioned above: Theil's entropy and the square of the coefficient of variation.
We conclude that the indexes used in the B-M-P decomposition are exact. Paglin's age-Gini index is accurate, but not his residue, the Paglin-Gini's index. And, Love and Wolfson's index did not behaved as expected to our modifications.
We also showed, by using the B-M-P decomposition, that overlaps is an important component. Finally, we noted that our indexes changed in value when we changed the number of groups analysed (example: if, to analyse the effect of age we divide our population into 5 or 10 age groups). So, it is important in a longitudinal study always to use the same group definitions to obtain comparable results.
* Bhattacharya, Mahalanobis and Pyratt.
Une analyse économétrique de la demande et de l’offre de dépôts des sociétés de crédit populaire : le cas des Caisses populaires
Authors: Chateau Jean-Pierre D. 
Published: July 2012

The aim of the study is to explain Quebec major credit union's deposit market by way of integrating its public demand function with the institution's rate-setting operation. The demand for Caisses' deposits is specified as a dynamic stock adjustment model. On the other hand, the intermediary's rate-setting reduced form is derived from a risk-return portfolio balance model in which the managers maximize the expected utility of reserves. The two models are integrated by means of a liability composite rate.
Econometric estimates of the integrated model provide us with interesting policy insights. For instance, the Quebecois public views chartered banks' deposits as a weak substitute for Caisses' deposits; it is also more responsive to nonrate arguments, such as loan eligibility or the institution's ethnic appeal. On the supply side, competitive liability rates are more important than returns on assets when the Caisses set its deposit rate. Finally, the impact growth imbalance between loans and deposits is well captured by a flow variable, without infringing on the steady determination based on rates.
Résultats de scénarios à l’aide d’un modèle à moyen terme de l’économie du Québec
Authors: Rabeau Yves , Morin Normand 
Published: July 2012

In this medium term model of the Quebec economy, output in the various sectors of the economy is determined by demand. The different components of final demand take into account the volume exports of Quebec output to the rest of Canada and to the United States. Employment in the various sectors of the economy is determined by the inverse of production function whereas output is distributed among the different economic agents. Income influences final demand. Prices and wages are in part determined endogenously whereas the labour supply, government expenditures, tax rates are treated exogenously in the forecasting period.
The results are generally good and various forecasts are made for the 1978-85 period. Three sets of assumptions define what is called a weak, medium and strong scenario. In all scenarios, we observe a productivity slowdown. If we assume the current trend in the slowdown of the public sector is maintained, employment growth is largely explained by the growth of private sector of the economy. Then, it turns out that in all forecasts, employment growth will allow any significant reduction of the unemployment rate over the forecasting period. Only a major shift in productivity trend which would allow Quebec to take a larger share of the North American market could improve the labour market in the years to come.
Relations entre le commerce international et l’emploi; cas du Québec : 1965-1970
Authors: Lafleur Louis-Robert , Tremblay Rodrigue 
Published: July 2012

This article combines the analysis of regional economics, the constant-market-share analysis and the input-output analysis in order to assess the impact of export growth on the main economic variables of a regional economy. The model is first tested for a regional economy by breaking up export growth rates for manufactured products into its various effects. The dynamism of the trade zone to which the regional economy belongs, the production biases on the pattern of trade flows and the cost competitiveness of the economy are then estimated. It is assumed that these estimates reflect the relative importance of the structural and exogenous factors relative to the cyclical and endogenous factors on export performance.
The general equilibrium implications of the estimates in terms of direct and indirect employment effects are thus spelled out by the use of available input-output data. The results indicate that Quebec's export performance is not hindered by the geographical pattern of export flows nor by the product-mix of its exports. However, the indicator of cost competitiveness indicates a slight deterioration on foreign markets.
Des moyens de l’intégration monétaire européenne
Authors: Bourguinat H. 
Published: July 2012

European monetary integration policy nowadays centers on the search for a common money by opposition to a single monetary unit; but many problems remain as to the means of achieving this end.
After reviewing the perennial discussions concerned with the foundations of this monetary integration (e.g. the problems of the optimum of a monetary area, where Mr. Bourguinat challenges the criteria based on differential factor mobility or on the relative degree of "openness"), the study analyses the narrowing of margins in the light of recent experience.
Considering the events of 1972 and 1973 the narrowing of margins is a very difficult task; it means nothing less than creating for the E.E.C. members an island of stability in a world environment becoming evermore flexible.
The freedom which has been lost on exchange rate fluctuations seems to have resulted in an increased instability of par values (e.g. the successive revaluations of the deutschmark, the florin, etc.).
For the achievement of a truly common money the author suggests an alternative approach: it consists in issuing, side by side with national currencies, a unit called an Europa; serving initially as a unit of account, the Europa would gradually become a true means of payment.
Modèle de prévision et de simulation de l’aide sociale au Québec
Authors: Gautrin J.-F. , Verdon B. 
Published: July 2012

This paper deals with a macro-simulation and forecasting model, called PASSIM, essentially markovian, of the working of the Quebec system of Public Assistance. It has to do with both the numbers of persons involved and with the expenditures. It became fully operational in the summer of 1972 albeit it still contains a number of important imperfections.
The model relies on a linear programming procedure to estimate probability transition matrices. This seems to represent one of the original features of the model. The basic philosophy of the Quebec Public Assistance is simple: a modified version of a guaranteed income program. This needs test is simply used to constitute the submodel for the determination of allowances. Transition matrices are three dimensional; transition probabilities may change over time due to changes in various exogeneous variables.
The model is particularly oriented to test some major changes in the law. An example of a typical simulation is presented and some gross sensitivity tests are also given.