Predicting Atrial Fibrillation Relapse Using Bayesian Networks: Explainable AI Approach
Authors: Alves João Miguel , Matos Daniel , Martins Tiago , Cavaco Diogo , Carmo Pedro , Galvão Pedro , Costa Francisco Moscoso , Morgado Francisco , Ferreira António Miguel , Freitas Pedro , Dias Cláudia Camila , Rodrigues Pedro Pereira , Adragão Pedro 
Published: February 2025

Abstract

Background
Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a prevalent arrhythmia associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Despite advancements in ablation techniques, predicting recurrence of AF remains a challenge, necessitating reliable models to identify patients at risk of relapse. Traditional scoring systems often lack applicability in diverse clinical settings and may not incorporate the latest evidence-based factors influencing AF outcomes. This study aims to develop an explainable artificial intelligence model using Bayesian networks to predict AF relapse postablation, leveraging on easily obtainable clinical variables.

Objective
This study aims to investigate the effectiveness of Bayesian networks as a predictive tool for AF relapse following a percutaneous pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) procedure. The objectives include evaluating the model’s performance using various clinical predictors, assessing its adaptability to incorporate new risk factors, and determining its potential to enhance clinical decision-making in the management of AF.

Methods
This study analyzed data from 480 patients with symptomatic drug-refractory AF who underwent percutaneous PVI. To predict AF relapse following the procedure, an explainable artificial intelligence model based on Bayesian networks was developed. The model used a variable number of clinical predictors, including age, sex, smoking status, preablation AF type, left atrial volume, epicardial fat, obstructive sleep apnea, and BMI. The predictive performance of the model was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) metrics across different configurations of predictors (5, 6, and 7 variables). Validation was conducted through four distinct sampling techniques to ensure robustness and reliability of the predictions.

Results
The Bayesian network model demonstrated promising predictive performance for AF relapse. Using 5 predictors (age, sex, smoking, preablation AF type, and obstructive sleep apnea), the model achieved an AUC-ROC of 0.661 (95% CI 0.603‐0.718). Incorporating additional predictors improved performance, with a 6-predictor model (adding BMI) achieving an AUC-ROC of 0.703 (95% CI 0.652‐0.753) and a 7-predictor model (adding left atrial volume and epicardial fat) achieving an AUC-ROC of 0.752 (95% CI 0.701‐0.800). These results indicate that the model can effectively estimate the risk of AF relapse using readily available clinical variables. Notably, the model maintained acceptable diagnostic accuracy even in scenarios where some predictive features were missing, highlighting its adaptability and potential use in real-world clinical settings.

Conclusions
The developed Bayesian network model provides a reliable and interpretable tool for predicting AF relapse in patients undergoing percutaneous PVI. By using easily accessible clinical variables, presenting acceptable diagnostic accuracy, and showing adaptability to incorporate new medical knowledge over time, the model demonstrates a flexibility and robustness that makes it suitable for real-world clinical scenarios.