bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
A logistic regression approach for monthly rainfall forecasts in meteorological subdivisions of India based on DEMETER retrospective forecasts
Authors: Prasad K. , Dash S. K. , Mohanty U. C. 
Published: September 2009

AbstractA multi‐predictor logistic regression model has been developed for probabilistic forecasts of domain average rainfall on monthly timescale for three study regions namely, India as a whole, and two homogeneous meteorological subdivisions of India, i.e. Orissa on the east coast and Gujarat on the west coast. The time series of the monthly total observed rainfall as the predictand variable was constructed from the gridded (1° × 1°) daily rainfall produced by India Meteorological Department, and those of the predictor data sets from 1‐month lead forecasts of several atmospheric and oceanic variables produced by the ‘Development of a European Multi‐model Ensemble system for seasonal to inTERannual prediction (DEMETER)’ project of European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Multi‐model ensembles of nine‐member retrospective forecasts for the month of August generated by three constituent models of the DEMETER system, viz., ECMWF, United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) and Meteo France are used. The predictor variables (totally 36 in number) include direct model‐predicted total precipitation and its inter‐member standard deviation. A two‐stage procedure has been designed, where logistic regression is first computed for each individual variable and then for the variables ranked on the basis of Brier scores. The top‐ranked variables (up to four) are used for fitting the multiple logistic regression model in a stepwise manner. The fitted model provides estimates of probability of the value of an observation exceeding a specified quantile (such as median) of the statistical distribution of the predictand variable. The model shows good performance in capturing the extreme rainfall years and appears to perform better than the direct model forecasts of total precipitation in respect of such years. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society
Interannual variability of precipitation distribution patterns in Southern Portugal
Authors: Mourato S. , Moreira M. , Corte‐Real J. 
Published: September 2009

AbstractSouthern Portugal is characterized by an irregular distribution of precipitation which is highly variable from year to year, requiring a clear ascertaining if the pattern of the precipitation is changing due to climate variability or climate change.In this paper, the authors applied several statistical methods to annual and seasonal time series of precipitation during the period 1931–2006, in order to detect trends and evaluate the variability in the frequencies of occurrence of dry and wet periods and also to assess spatial distribution patterns.The statistical methods include homogeneity tests, Mann–Kendall test, simple moving averages and cluster analysis. In spring, the authors detected a lack of homogeneity in the precipitation time series and a significant decreasing trend of precipitation was identified, by using simple moving averages and the Mann–Kendall test.Cluster analyses also confirmed the results and identified significant trends in the interannual and spatial distributions of dry, normal and wet years. It is concluded that the annual precipitation regime in the North interior sector is becoming drier, as the winter and spring also become drier. The only season in which a precipitation increase is observed is at fall and near the sea, but even for that region springs are also becoming drier. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society
Science versus myth: was there a connection between the Marmara Sea and Lake Sapanca?
Authors: Gürbüz Alper , Leroy Suzanne A. G. 
Published: September 2009

AbstractThe existence of an alternative strait between the Black and Marmara Seas, east of today's İstanbul Strait, on the route of İzmit Gulf–Lake Sapanca–Lower Sakarya Valley, was already claimed at the end of the 19th century and has also been considered in several recent studies. Firstly, in historical documents over the last 2500 years, some natural and artificial waterways between the Marmara Sea and Lake Sapanca have been reported. Secondly, according to the present geomorphological research between the İzmit Gulf and Lake Sapanca, the gutter‐like morphology, which was formed by the tectonics of the North Anatolian Fault in the centre of the plain, is suggested as a suitable geomorphic feature for a possible waterway between the gulf and the lake. Thirdly, the İzmit Plain that lies between the İzmit Gulf and Lake Sapanca is studied in this paper through its sedimentology. The facies associations of the basin‐fill deposits are examined here through the lithological descriptions and fossil assemblages in nine cores drilled in the plain. All these data suggest that the shoreline in the Quaternary did not lie much further landward from its current position, that the inner part of the plain was covered by a lagoon/coastal‐swamp environment and that a connection may have existed at an unknown time (perhaps for the last time during the Middle/Late Pleistocene) with perhaps only partial reuse during the last millennia in the course of catastrophic seismic movements and consecutive floods. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Assessment of a sheep animal model to optimise photodynamic therapy in the oesophagus
Authors: Glanzmann Thomas M. , Zellweger Matthieu P.E. , Borle François , Conde Ramiro , Radu Alexandre , Ballini Jean‐Pierre , Jaquet Yves , Pilloud Raphaëlle , van den Bergh Hubert , Monnier Philippe , Andrejevic‐Blant Snezana , Wagnières Georges A. 
Published: September 2009

AbstractBackground and ObjectivesPrecursor lesions of oesophagus adenocarcinoma constitute a clinical dilemma. Photodynamic therapy (PDT) is an effective treatment for this indication, but it is difficult to optimise without an appropriate animal model. For this reason, we assessed the sheep model for PDT in the oesophagus with the photosensitiser meta‐(tetra‐hydroxyphenyl) chlorin (mTHPC).Materials and MethodsTwelve sheep underwent intravenous mTHPC injection, blood sampling and fluorescence measurements. mTHPC's pharmacokinetics was measured in vivo and in plasma by fluorescence spectroscopy. Biopsies of sheep oesophagus were compared to corresponding human tissue, and the mTHPC's biodistribution was studied under fluorescence microscopy. Finally, the sheep oesophageal mucosa was irradiated, 4 days after mTHPC's injection.ResultsHistologically, the sheep and human oesophagus were closely comparable, with the exception of additional fatty tissue in the sheep oesophagus. mTHPC's pharmacokinetics in sheep and human plasmas were similar, with a maximum of concentration in the sheep 10 hours after i.v. injection. mTHPC's pharmacokinetics in vivo reached its maximum after 30–50 hours, then decreased to background levels, as in humans under similar conditions. Two days after injection, mTHPC was mainly distributed in the lamina propria, followed by a penetration into the epithelium. The sheep and human tissue sensitivity to mTHPC PDT was similar.ConclusionIn conclusion, this model showed many similarities with humans as to mTHPC's plasma and tissue pharmacokinetics, and for tissue PDT response, making it suitable to optimise oesophagus PDT. Lasers Surg. Med. 41:643–652, 2009. © 2009 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.
Risk factors for recurrence of autoimmune hepatitis after liver transplantation
Authors: Montano-Loza Aldo J. , Mason Andrew L. , Ma Mang , Bastiampillai Ravin J. , Bain Vincent G. , Tandon Puneeta 
Published: September 2009

Abstract

Autoimmune hepatitis has been reported to recur after liver transplantation. The aim of our study was to evaluate the risk factors associated with recurrence of autoimmune hepatitis. Forty-six patients that underwent liver transplantation because of end-stage liver disease secondary to autoimmune hepatitis were studied. Recurrence of autoimmune hepatitis was diagnosed in 11 of the 46 (24%) patients, and the overall 5-year probability of recurrence was 18%. By univariate Cox analysis, the features before liver transplantation associated with a higher risk of recurrence were concomitant autoimmune disease [hazard ratio (HR), 3.74; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.05–13.36; P = 0.04], high aspartate aminotransferase (HR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.03–1.14; P = 0.002), high alanine aminotransferase (HR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.03–1.20; P = 0.003), and high immunoglobulin G (IgG; HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.11–1.41; P = 0.0003). Moreover, patients with recurrence had a higher frequency of moderate to severe inflammatory activity (HR, 5.3; 95% CI, 1.55–18.79; P = 0.008) and plasma cell infiltration in the liver explant (HR, 5.8; 95% CI, 1.52–22.43; P = 0.01). In the multivariate Cox analysis, only the presence of moderate to severe inflammation (HR, 6.9; 95% CI, 1.76–26.96; P = 0.006) and high IgG levels before liver transplantation (HR, 7.5; 95% CI, 1.45–38.45; P = 0.02) were independently associated with the risk of autoimmune hepatitis recurrence. In conclusion, patients with concomitant autoimmune disease, high aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase, and IgG before the transplant, or moderate to severe inflammatory activity or plasma cell infiltration in the liver explant have a higher risk of recurrent disease. These findings suggest that recurrence of autoimmune hepatitis may reflect incomplete suppression of disease activity prior to liver transplantation. Liver Transpl 15:1254–1261, 2009. © 2009 AASLD.
Outcomes of liver transplantation for paracetamol (acetaminophen)-induced hepatic failure
Authors: Cooper Sheldon C. , Aldridge Roland C. , Shah Tahir , Webb Kerry , Nightingale Peter , Paris Sue , Gunson Bridget K. , Mutimer David J. , Neuberger James M. 
Published: September 2009

Abstract

Paracetamol (acetaminophen) hepatotoxicity, whether due to intentional overdose or therapeutic misadventure, is an indication for liver transplantation in selected cases. However, there is a concern that long-term outcomes may be compromised by associated psychopathology that may predispose patients to further episodes of self-harm or poor treatment adherence. We therefore undertook a retrospective analysis of patients transplanted for paracetamol-induced fulminant hepatic failure (FHF) to determine their long-term outcomes, psychiatric problems, and compliance and whether these issues could be predicted from pretransplant information. Records from patients undergoing liver transplantation for paracetamol-associated liver failure in this unit and 2 comparison groups (patients undergoing liver replacement for FHF from other causes and for chronic liver diseases) were examined. Of 60 patients transplanted for paracetamol-induced FHF between 1989 and 2007, 44 (73%) survived to discharge. Currently, 35 patients (58%) are surviving at an average of 9 years post-transplantation. The incidence of psychiatric disease (principally depression) and 30-day mortality were greatest in the paracetamol group, but for those who survived 30 days, there was no difference in long-term survival rates between the groups. Adherence to follow-up appointments and compliance with immunosuppression were lowest in the paracetamol overdose group. Poor adherence was not predicted by any identifiable premorbid psychiatric conditions. Two patients grafted for paracetamol FHF died from self-harm (1 from suicide and 1 from alcoholic liver disease after 5 years). This study suggests that, notwithstanding the shortage of donor liver grafts, transplantation is an appropriate therapy in selected patients, although close follow-up is indicated. Liver Transpl 15:1351–1357, 2009. © 2009 AASLD.
Liver transplantation cost in the model for end-stage liver disease era: Looking beyond the transplant admission
Authors: Buchanan Paula , Dzebisashvili Nino , Lentine Krista L. , Axelrod David A. , Schnitzler Mark A. , Salvalaggio Paolo R. 
Published: September 2009

Abstract

We examined the relationship between the total cost incurred by liver transplantation (LT) recipients and their Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score at the time of transplant. We used a novel database linking billing claims from a large private payer with the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network registry. Included were adults who underwent LT from March 2002 through August 2007 (n = 990). Claims within the year preceding and following transplantation were analyzed according to the recipient's calculated MELD score. Cost was the primary endpoint and was assessed by the length of stay and charges. Transplant admission charges represented approximately 50% of the total cost of LT. MELD was a significant cost driver for pretransplant, transplant, and total charges. A MELD score of 28 to 40 was associated with additional charges of $349,213 (P < 0.05) in comparison with a score of 15 to 20. Pretransplant and transplant admission charges were higher by $152,819 (P < 0.05) and $64,286 (P < 0.05), respectively, in this higher MELD group. No differences by MELD score were found for posttransplant charges. Those in the highest MELD group also experienced longer hospital stays both in the pretransplant period and at the time of LT but did not have higher rates of re-admissions. In conclusion, high-MELD patients incur significantly higher costs prior to and at the time of LT. Following LT, the MELD score is not a significant predictor of cost or re-admission. Liver Transpl 15:1270–1277, 2009. © 2009 AASLD.
A report of human herpesvirus 6–associated encephalitis in a solid organ transplant recipient and a review of previously published cases
Authors: Vinnard Christopher , Barton Todd , Jerud Elliot , Blumberg Emily 
Published: September 2009

Abstract

Human herpesvirus 6 (HHV-6) is a common pathogen among children, classically presenting as fever and rash that resolve without specific therapy (exanthem subitum or roseola infantum). Also identified as a pathogen in hematopoietic cell transplant and solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients, it has been recognized as a cause of limbic encephalitis, characterized by confusion and amnesia, with magnetic resonance imaging findings of T2 hyperintensity of the amygdala and hippocampus. We report a case of limbic encephalitis associated with HHV-6 infection in a liver transplant recipient, and we review previously reported cases of HHV-6 encephalitis in SOT recipients. Liver Transpl 15:1242–1246, 2009. © 2009 AASLD.
Liver transplantation for familial amyloidotic polyneuropathy: Impact on Swedish patients' survival
Authors: Okamoto Sadahisa , Wixner Jonas , Obayashi Konen , Ando Yukio , Ericzon Bo-Göran , Friman Styrbjörn , Uchino Makoto , Suhr Ole B. 
Published: September 2009

Abstract

Liver transplantation (LTx) for familial amyloidotic polyneuropathy (FAP) is an accepted treatment for this fatal disease. However, the long-term outcome with respect to that of nontransplanted patients has not been fully elucidated. The aim of this study was to compare the long-term survival of Swedish LTx FAP patients with that of historical controls, especially with respect to the age at onset of the disease and gender. In order to evaluate the outcome of LTx as a treatment for FAP, survival was calculated from the onset of disease. One hundred forty-one FAP patients, 108 transplanted and 33 not transplanted, were included in the study. Significantly increased survival was noted for LTx patients in comparison with controls. The outcome was especially favorable for those with an early onset of the disease (age at onset < 50 years) in comparison with early-onset controls (P < 0.001). In contrast, no significant difference for late-onset cases (≥50 years) was found. Transplanted late-onset females had significantly improved survival in comparison with transplanted late-onset males (P = 0.02). We were unable to find significant differences in survival between patients with long (≥7 years) or short (<7 years) disease duration at transplantation. The survival of male patients with late-onset disease appeared not to improve with LTx. LTx is an efficacious treatment for improving the survival of early-onset FAP patients. Further studies are needed to analyze the cause of the poorer outcome for late-onset male patients. Liver Transpl 15:1229–1235, 2009. © 2009 AASLD.
Acute liver failure at 26 weeks' gestation in a patient with sickle cell disease
Authors: Greenberg Mara , Daugherty Tami J. , Elihu Arvand , Sharaf Ravi , Concepcion Waldo , Druzin Maurice , Esquivel Carlos O. 
Published: September 2009

Abstract

Orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) for acute liver failure (ALF) during pregnancy is an uncommon occurrence with variable outcomes. In pregnancy-related liver failure, prompt diagnosis and immediate delivery are essential for a reversal of the underlying process and for maternal and fetal survival. In rare cases, the reason for ALF during pregnancy is either unknown or irreversible, and thus OLT may be necessary. This case demonstrates the development of cryptogenic ALF during the 26th week of pregnancy in a woman with sickle cell disease. She underwent successful cesarean delivery of a healthy male fetus at 27 weeks with concurrent OLT. This report provides a literature review of OLT in pregnancy and examines the common causes of ALF in the pregnant patient. On the basis of the management and outcome of our case and the literature review, we present an algorithm for the suggested management of ALF in pregnancy. Liver Transpl 15:1236–1241, 2009. © 2009 AASLD.
Kinetics of host immune responses and cytomegalovirus resistance in a liver transplant patient
Authors: Schaffer Kirsten , Moran Julie , Duffy Margaret , McCormick Aiden P. , Hall William W. , Hassan Jaythoon 
Published: September 2009

Abstract

Among solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients, donor-seropositive/recipient-seronegative (D+/R−) cytomegalovirus (CMV) status is associated with the highest risk of ganciclovir-resistant CMV disease, which has been reported for patients receiving oral ganciclovir but not valganciclovir prophylaxis. We report a case of CMV breakthrough infection in a D+/R− liver transplant patient while he was receiving oral valganciclovir. Forty samples collected over 6 months were analyzed for the CMV viral load, lymphocyte counts, cytokine levels, and lymphocyte differentiation status. Genotypic resistance testing of the viral UL97 gene was performed when the patient failed to respond. CMV viremia occurred on day 50 post-transplant, and 5 samples taken between days 50 and 85 showed the wild-type UL97 genotype. The appearance of deletion 594-595 was observed from day 114 post-transplant. Viral loads declined when foscarnet was commenced and remained below 10,000 copies/mL when the lymphocyte count was greater than 1000/μL (P = 0.02). T cell responses revealed significant expansion of CD8+ terminal effector memory cells. CD4+ cells were largely populations of naïve and central memory cells. Circulating interleukin 10 (IL-10) levels correlated with the viral load (P < 0.0001). Seroconversion occurred on day 230. The CMV viral load in combination with lymphocyte counts and IL-10 may be a predictive marker for the risk of development of resistant CMV disease in D+/R− SOT patients. Liver Transpl 15:1199–1203, 2009. © 2009 AASLD.
Early noninvasive measurement of the indocyanine green plasma disappearance rate accurately predicts early graft dysfunction and mortality after deceased donor liver transplantation
Authors: Olmedilla Luis , Pérez-Peña José María , Ripoll Cristina , Garutti Ignacio , de Diego Roberto , Salcedo Magdalena , Jiménez Consuelo , Bañares Rafael 
Published: September 2009

Abstract

Early diagnosis of graft dysfunction in liver transplantation is essential for taking appropriate action. Indocyanine green clearance is closely related to liver function and can be measured noninvasively by spectrophotometry. The objectives of this study were to prospectively analyze the relationship between the indocyanine green plasma disappearance rate (ICGPDR) and early graft function after liver transplantation and to evaluate the role of ICGPDR in the prediction of severe graft dysfunction (SGD). One hundred seventy-two liver transplants from deceased donors were analyzed. Ten patients had SGD: 6 were retransplanted, and 4 died while waiting for a new graft. The plasma disappearance rate was measured 1 hour (PDRr60) and within the first 24 hours (PDR1) after reperfusion, and it was significantly lower in the SGD group. PDRr60 and PDR1 were excellent predictors of SGD. A threshold PDRr60 value of 10.8%/minute and a PDR1 value of 10%/minute accurately predicted SGD with areas under the receiver operating curve of 0.94 (95% confidence interval, 0.89-0.97) and 0.96 (95% confidence interval, 0.92-0.98), respectively. In addition, survival was significantly lower in patients with PDRr60 values below 10.8%/minute (53%, 47%, and 47% versus 95%, 94%, and 90% at 3, 6, and 12 months, respectively) and with PDR1 values below 10%/minute (62%, 62%, and 62% versus 94%, 92%, and 88%). In conclusion, very early noninvasive measurement of ICGPDR can accurately predict early severe graft dysfunction and mortality after liver transplantation. Liver Transpl 15:1247–1253, 2009. © 2009 AASLD.
Mesenchymal stem cells as immunomodulators after liver transplantation
Authors: Popp Felix C. , Renner Philipp , Eggenhofer Elke , Slowik Przemyslaw , Geissler Edward K. , Piso Pompiliu , Schlitt Hans J. , Dahlke Marc H. 
Published: September 2009

Abstract

Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) are promising candidate cells for immunomodulation therapy that are currently being tested in the preclinical and clinical setting. MSCs suppress the immune response in a variety of in vitro and disease models and may thus be of benefit for patients suffering from autoimmune disorders or transplant rejection. The mechanism by which MSCs modulate the immune response is still under thorough investigation, but it most likely involves expression of local factors such as indoleamine 2,3-dioxygenase, inducible nitric oxide synthase, and others as well as interactions with dendritic or antigen-presenting cells. Although MSCs have been evaluated in clinical phase I and II studies for graft-versus-host disease and heart, kidney, and bone disease, their introduction into solid organ transplantation is still eagerly awaited. In this short review, we summarize the current understanding of immunomodulation achieved by MSC therapies and introduce a possible outline for a clinical study that will use MSCs in the context of a calcineurin inhibitor–free induction protocol after liver transplantation. Liver Transpl 15:1192–1198, 2009. © 2009 AASLD.
Modelling apple tree bud burst time and frost risk in Iran
Authors: Farajzadeh Manuchehr , Rahimi Mohammad , Kamali Gholam Ali , Mavrommatis Theodoros 
Published: September 2009

AbstractThe bud burst phase of orchard trees is the most critical phase in relation to low temperature and frost since the most parts of the bud, especially the ovary, are very sensitive to low temperatures. Therefore, predicting the time of bud burst is important. If a model can predict the time of budding, it would be possible to protect buds from late spring frosts. In this study, the budding time of apple trees at two agrometeorological stations in northeast and northwest Iran was predicted by using a chilling and forcing model. Data for years 2002–2006 were used to calibrate the bud burst prediction model and respective information for the years 2007 and 2008 was used to validate it. For this purpose, five threshold temperatures (TC) and 11 chill requirements (CR) were used. Among 55 combinations of TC and CR, the combination with minimum Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was selected for predicting bud burst of apple for each region. Meanwhile, the probability of last date of frost in spring was estimated by statistical distribution. By comparing the probability of frost occurrence with the date of predicted bud burst, the risk of frost damage on apple budding was estimated. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society