bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Casting Finger Rings in Mycenaean Times: Two Unpublished Moulds at the National Archaeological Museum, Athens
Authors: Konstantinidi-Syvridi Eleni , Kontaki Maria 
Published: June 2011

The recording of two unpublished moulds in the storeroom of the Prehistoric Collections of the National Archaeological Museum, Athens, presented here, provide the stimulus for a re-examination of the construction method of the bezeled/signet rings of Mycenaean times. The moulds, one of semi-cylindrical shape and the other rectangular, belong to a limited class of items from Crete, Mainland Greece, and Enkomi, Cyprus.It is possible that such moulds have served for the construction of the wax model of the artefacts, in the lost wax technique and not directly for the cast of gold, since the very construction of them, which is time-consuming and necessitates the skills of specialized craftsmen, indicates that they did not serve for a single use but rather for several uses. On the other hand, even steatite, the stone mostly used for such moulds, cannot adhere to continuous pressure to high temperatures, necessary for casting gold.Στην παρούσα μελετη καταγράφονται δύο αδημοσίευτες μήτρες από την αποθήκη της Προϊστορικής Συλλογής του Εθνικού Αρχαιολογικού Μουσείου στην Αθήνα, προσφέροντας το ερέθισμα για μία επανεξέταση της τεχνικής κατασκευής των δακτυλιδιών με σφενδόνη της Μυκηναϊκής εποχής. Οι μήτρες, από τις οποίες η μία είναι ημικυλινδρική και η άλλη ορθογώνια, ανήκουν σε μία περιορισμένη τάξη ευρημάτων, που προέρχονται από την Κρήτη, την Ηπειρωτική Ελλάδα και την Έγκωμη της Κύπρου.Είναι πιθανό ότι αυτές οι μήτρες να χρησιμοποιήθηκαν για την κατασκευή των κέρινων εκμαγείων των δακτυλιδιών κατά την τεχνική του «χαμένου κεριού» και όχι για την απευθείας χύτευση χρυσού. Η ίδια η κατασκευή τους, που προϋποθέτει πολύ χρόνο και ειδικευμένους τεχνίτες, υποδεικνύει ότι δεν χρησιμοποιήθηκαν μόνο για μία φορά. Από την άλλη πλευρά, ακόμη και ο στεατίτης, ο λίθος που κατεξοχήν χρησιμοποιήθηκε για την κατασκευή αυτών των αντικειμένων, δεν θα μπορούσε να αντέξει τις υψηλές θερμοκρασίες, που απαιτούντοα για την χύτευση του χρυσού σε διαδοχικές χρήσεις.
The structure of theC*-algebra of a locally injective surjection
Authors: CARLSEN TOKE MEIER , THOMSEN KLAUS 
Published: June 2011

AbstractIn this paper we investigate the ideal structure of theC*-algebra of a locally injective surjection introduced by the second-named author. Our main result is that a simple quotient of theC*-algebra of a locally injective surjection on a compact metric space of finite covering dimension is either a full matrix algebra, a crossed product of a minimal homeomorphism of a compact metric space of finite covering dimension, or it is purely infinite and hence covered by the classification result of Kirchberg and Phillips. It follows in particular that if theC*-algebra of a locally injective surjection on a compact metric space of finite covering dimension is simple, then it is automatically purely infinite, unless the map in question is a homeomorphism. A corollary of this result is that if theC*-algebra of a one-sided subshift is simple, then it is also purely infinite.
A complexity theory of design intentionality
Authors: Zamenopoulos Theodore 
Published: June 2011

AbstractThe subject of this paper is design intentionality. The paper is concerned with the property of the mind to hold intentional states (its capacity to represent or reflect existing and nonexisting realities) and with the way that these mental states are constructed during design tasks. The aim is to develop a mathematical theory of design intentionality, capturing the structures and processes that characterize an intentional system with the mental ability to address design tasks. The philosophical notion of intentionality is approached methodologically from a complexity theoretic perspective. More specifically, the focus is placed on the mathematical characterization of the organizational complexity of intentional states and the type of phase transitions that occur on the mental states of an intentional system during design tasks. The paper uses category theory in order to build a framework that is able to mathematically capture the meaning of these notions.
The Wilkie Model for Retail Price Inflation Revisited
Authors: Chan W.S. , Wang S. 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTA first order autoregressive model was proposed in Wilkie (1995) for the retail price inflation series as a part of his stochastic investment model. In this paper we apply time series outlier analysis to the data set and a revised model is derived. It significantly alleviates the problem of leptokurtic and positive skewed residual distribution as found in the original model. Finally, ARCH models for the original series and the outlier-adjusted data are also considered.
The Puzzle of Life Office Tax
Authors: Sole T.C. 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTThis paper takes a broad look at tax in general and some of the tax issues peculiar to life offices. A theoretical model for the taxation of life offices and their policyholders is then developed. Moving from theory to practice, the paper then offers its own solution to the ‘puzzle’. Appended by way of background reading are brief histories and summaries of life office tax in the UK, New Zealand, USA and Canada.
The Risk Premium on Ordinary Shares
Authors: Wilkie A.D. 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTThe risk premium on ordinary shares is investigated, by studying the total returns on ordinary shares, and on both long-term and short-term fixed-interest investments over the period 1919 to 1994, and by analysing the various components of that return. The total returns on ordinary shares exceeded those on fixed-interest investments by over 5% p.a. on a geometric mean basis and by over 7% p.a. on an arithmetic mean basis, but it is argued that these figures are misleading, because most of the difference can be accounted for by the fact that price inflation turned out to be about 4.5% p.a. over the period, whereas investors had been expecting zero inflation.Quotations from contemporary authors are brought forward to demonstrate what contemporary attitudes were. Simulations are used along with the Wilkie stochastic asset model to show what the results would be if investors make various assumptions about the future, but the true model turns out to be different from what they expected. The differences between geometric means of the data and arithmetic means are shown to correspond to differences between using medians or means of the distribution of future returns, and it is suggested that, for discounting purposes, medians are the better measure.
More on a Stochastic Asset Model for Actuarial Use
Authors: Wilkie A.D. 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTIn this paper the ‘Wilkie investment model’ is discussed, updated and extended. The original model covered price inflation, share dividends, share dividend yields (and hence share prices) and long-term interest rates, and was based on data for the United Kingdom from 1919 to 1982, taken at annual intervals. The additional aspects now covered include: the extension of the data period to 1994 (with omission of the period from 1919 to 1923); the inclusion of models for a wages (earnings) index, short-term interest rates, property rentals and yields (and hence property prices) and yields on index-linked stock; consideration of data for observations more frequently than yearly, in particular monthly data; extension of the U.K. model to certain other countries; introduction of a model for currency exchange rates; extension of certain aspects of the model to a larger number of other countries; and consideration of more elaborate forms of time-series modelling, in particular cointegrated models and ARCH models.
General Insurance Premium Rating — The Way Forward. Summary of the Recommendations of the General Insurance Premium Rating Working Party (GRIP)
Authors: Anderson J. D. , Bolton C. G. , Callan G. L. , Cross M. , Howard S. K. , Mitchell G. R. J. , Murphy K. P. , Rakow J. C. , Stirling P. A. , Welsh G. E. 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTThe General Insurance Premium Rating Issues Working Party (GRIP) was established by the General Insurance Board of the Faculty and Institute of Actuaries in 2005 to review actuarial involvement in premium rating issues, pricing being one of the key areas in which actuaries work.GRIP published a full report in January 2007, which is available at www.actuaries.org.uk/grip. This short paper summarises the recommendations of that full report. Further background, discussion and the rationale for these recommendations are set out in more detail in the full report.
Pension Scheme Asset Allocation with Taxation Arbitrage, Risk Sharing and Default Insurance
Authors: Sutcliffe C. M. S. 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTThe asset allocation is a crucial decision for pension funds, and this paper analyses the economic factors which determine this choice. The analysis proceeds on the basis that, in the absence of taxation, risk sharing and default insurance, the asset allocation between equities and bonds is indeterminate and governed by the risk/return preferences of the trustees and the employer. If the employing company and its shareholders are subject to taxation, there is a tax advantage in a largely bond allocation. Risk sharing between the employer and the employees often means that one group favours a high equity allocation, while the other favours a low equity allocation. Underpriced default insurance creates an incentive for a high equity allocation. When taxation, risk sharing and underpriced default insurance are all present, it is concluded that the appropriate asset allocation varies with the circumstances of the scheme; but that a high equity allocation is probably inappropriate for many private sector pension schemes.
The Economy, Society and the Actuarial Profession 1856-2006
Authors: Simpson D. R. F. 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTThe paper identifies two major trends in the economic and social history of the last 150 years, and discusses their effect on the actuarial profession. The major economic trend is globalisation, with which is associated specialisation of function. The major social trend is the gradual collectivisation of society. Neither of these trends has developed monotonically. Both have developed in a ratchet-like movement over time. Globalisation is reflected in the overseas expansion of British life assurance companies up to 1914, followed by an extended period of retrenchment before expansion was resumed in the last quarter of the 20th century. The effect of the collectivisation of society on the actuarial profession has been felt most acutely in an intensification of the regulation of financial services.
An Actuarial Survey of Statistical Models for Decrement and Transition Data - I: Multiple State, Poisson and Binomial Models
Authors: Macdonald A.S. 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTThis paper surveys some statistical models of survival data. A basic model of a random lifetime is defined, and censoring is introduced. Methods based on observations of small segments of lifetimes are compared. Markov and semi-Markov (multiple state) models are recommended as well-understood and flexible models well suited to actuarial data. A Poisson model is discussed as an approximation to a two state model, while traditional Binomial-type models are shown to be more restricted and less tractable than multiple state models.
An Actuarial Survey of Statistical Models for Decrement and Transition Data, II. Competing Risks, Non-Parametric and Regression Models
Authors: Macdonald A.S. 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTThis paper surveys some statistical models of survival data. Competing risks models are described; the unidentifiability of net decrements suggests a sceptical approach to the use of underlying single decrement tables. Approaches based on observations of complete lifetimes (with censoring) are surveyed including the Kaplan-Meier and Nelson-Aalen estimates. Regression models for lifetimes depending on covariates are discussed, in particular the Cox model and partial likelihood estimation.
The Joint Development of Insurance and Investment Markets in Poland: An Analysis of Actuarial Risks
Authors: Booth P.M. , Stroinski K.J. 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTThe development of the Polish insurance market in the period since liberalisation is discussed. The nature of the investment market and the investment risk faced by insurers are analysed in the context of the liability structure of Polish insurance companies. The likely future developments in insurance and investment markets are outlined, particularly given the structure of the state social insurance system, possible reforms of which are discussed in detail.
A Multi-State Model of Disability for the United Kingdom: Implications for Future Need for Long-Term Care for the Elderly
Authors: Rickayzen B.D. , Walsh D.E.P. 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTThis paper develops a multiple state model to project the number of people with disabilities in the United Kingdom over the next 35 years, thereby identifying implications for demand for long-term care for the elderly in the future.The model requires three types of data: prevalence rate data, transition rate data and trends data. Recent trends in healthy life expectancy data are used to frame the assumptions made regarding changes in the disability rates of the U.K. population in the future.Although there will be a large increase in the number of elderly people in the U.K. over the next 35 years, the projections suggest that the implications for the number of elderly people requiring long-term care could be ameliorated by a reduction in the proportion of older people who are severely disabled.
A Review of Policyholders' Reasonable Expectations
Authors: Shelley M. , Arnold M. , Needleman P. D. 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTIn the light of recent judgments by the courts, there are areas where the interpretation of Policyholders' Reasonable Expectations (PRE) by actuaries may need to be reassessed. Furthermore, the discussion paper on the exercise of discretion expected from the Financial Services Authority (FSA), as part of its review of with-profits business, is likely to raise wider issues.The time is therefore right for actuaries to have the opportunity to debate how PRE should be interpreted in the future. This paper is presented as a catalyst to enable that debate to happen, and the authors have set out their own views on some of the key issues.The paper discusses certain areas where the interpretation of PRE adopted by Appointed Actuaries in the past may no longer be consistent with recent court judgments. Following that discussion, the actuarial profession should attempt to establish a revised interpretation of PRE, in order to provide greater assistance to Appointed Actuaries currently advising on with-profits business.
Risk Measures and Theories of Choice
Authors: Tsanakas A. , Desli E. 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTWe discuss classes of risk measures in terms both of their axiomatic definitions and of the economic theories of choice that they can be derived from. More specifically, expected utility theory gives rise to the exponential premium principle, proposed by Gerber (1974), Dhaene et al. (2003), whereas Yaari's (1987) dual theory of choice under risk can be viewed as the source of the distortion premium principle (Denneberg, 1990; Wang, 1996). We argue that the properties of the exponential and distortion premium principles are complementary, without either of the two performing completely satisfactorily as a risk measure. Using generalised expected utility theory (Quiggin, 1993), we derive a new risk measure, which we call the distortion-exponential principle. This risk measure satisfies the axioms of convex measures of risk, proposed by Föllmer & Shied (2002a,b), and its properties lie between those of the exponential and distortion principles, which can be obtained as special cases.
How Actuaries Can Use Financial Economics
Authors: Smith A.D. 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTThere has recently been some debate about the usefulness of financial economics to the actuarial profession. The consensus appears to be that the techniques are potentially valuable, but the published material is not quite ‘oven ready’. Some development work is required before the material can be applied.The author has carried out much of the necessary development work on behalf of various clients over the last few years. On some occasions the results have conflicted with more conventional actuarial methods. The main aim of the paper is to bring the new techniques into the public domain so that they can be properly discussed by the profession, and adopted more widely if appropriate.The paper contains a number of worked examples using techniques developed by financial economists. The author has listed the computer code which generated the examples and deposited copies on the Internet, so that others can explore the issues with a minimal development overhead.
Pension Funding and Expensing in the Minimum Funding Requirement Environment
Authors: Greenwood P.M. , Keogh T.W. 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTThe statutory Minimum Funding Requirement (MFR) introduces fundamental change to the funding of pension schemes in the United Kingdom. While only a minority of schemes will actually be affected materially in terms of actual contributions or benefits, taken over a period of years, the influence of MFR will be much more widely felt. This is because the MFR is an absolute standard to be met, whereas long-term funding targets for ongoing schemes are, at least up to a point, optional and adjustable. The paper discusses the difference between MFR and long-term funding and suggests a variation on traditional actuarial methods to control explicitly the risk of MFR failure, based on a combination of traditional methods and the theories underlying asset/liability modelling. The paper also discusses the implications for pension expensing and communication of funding levels.
Business Ethics: The New Bottom Line. A Discussion Paper
Authors: Carmichael S. 
Published: June 2011

This discussion meeting was on the subject of business ethics, with particular reference to the work of actuaries.As an introduction to the meeting, copies of the paper, ‘Business Ethics: the New Bottom Line’, by Sheena Carmichael, were distributed to members of the Institute.Sheena Carmichael is the director of ETHOS, a consultancy dedicated to helping organisations identify and manage ethical issues. She is a research associate at the European Institute of Business Ethics at Nigenrode University in the Netherlands.The paper ‘Business Ethics: the New Bottom Line’, was published in 1995 by Demos, which “is an independent think-tank committed to radical thinking on the long-term problems facing the United Kingdom and other advanced industrial societies.It aims to develop the ideas — both theoretical and practical — that will shape the politics of the 21st century, and to improve the breadth and quality of political debate.” It is a registered charity.The paper has not been reproduced in British Actuarial Journal, but further information can be obtained from:Demos, 9 Bridewell Place, London, EC4V 6AP; telephone: 0171 353 4479; facsimile, 0171 353 4481; email, martin@demos.demon.co.uk
Scoping Mortality Research: (Report of the Mortality Research Steering Group)
Authors: Macdonald C. 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTThe Actuarial Profession is currently undertaking a review of its research strategy, and has decided to focus more resources on researching mortality developments. It is important that the profession is involved in partnerships with researchers from outside of the profession, bringing actuarial expertise into closer contact with other disciplines. We believe that collaboration between these different areas of expertise will provide important new insights in understanding mortality trends. This report represents the first step by the Mortality Developments Scoping Project Steering Group to map current research into mortality developments across a wide range of disciplines. The steering group is aware that the themes and literature discussed in this report are not exhaustive; however it does include areas of research not normally covered by the Actuarial Profession. The steering group welcomes comments on the report and suggestions for any areas which may not yet have been covered.The main aim of this report is to provide an overview of the key areas of research into mortality developments across a wide range of disciplines, as well as areas of overlap and gaps in the research. The literature described is compiled from recommendations received by the Mortality Developments Scoping Project Steering Group from experts from different disciplines working in the area of mortality.Key themes identified from recommended literature:— the role of medicine in mortality reduction;— the role of lifestyle and environment in mortality reduction, including smoking, socio-economic conditions and obesity;— causes of death contributing to mortality reduction, in particular coronary heart disease;— mortality reduction attributable to differing age groups;— the relationship of active life expectancy to total gains in life expectancy;— evidence of cohort effects on mortality improvement; and— future trends in mortality developments.Areas of overlap identified from recommended literature are:— the overlap between literature examining the role of medicine in mortality decline and the influences on the decline in mortality from coronary heart disease; and— the areas of overlap between various disciplines working in the field of mortality developments.Gaps identified in recommended literature are:— a lack of recommendations from social policy;— few papers recommended on the role of lifestyle and behavioural factors on mortality;— few papers recommended on causes of death other than coronary heart disease; and— few papers recommended on potential threats to future mortality improvement.
Prospective Longevity Risk Analysis
Authors: Woo G. , Martin C. J. , Hornsby C. , Coburn A. W. 
Published: June 2011

ABSTRACTMortality improvement has traditionally been analysed using an array of statistical methods, and extrapolated to make actuarial projections. This paper presents a forward-looking approach to longevity risk analysis which is based on stochastic modelling of the underlying causes of mortality improvement, due to changes in lifestyle, health environment, and advances in medical science. The rationale for this approach is similar to that adopted for modelling other types of dynamic insurance risk, e.g. natural catastrophes, where risk analysts construct a stochastic ensemble of events that might happen in the future, rather than rely on a retrospective analysis of the non-stationary and comparatively brief historical record.Another feature of prospective longevity risk analysis, which is shared with catastrophe risk modelling, is the objective of capturing vulnerability data at a high resolution, to maximise the benefit of detailed modelling capability down to individual risk factor level. Already, the use by insurers of postcode data for U.K. flood risk assessment has carried over to U.K. mortality assessment. Powered by fast numerical computation and parameterised with high quality geographical data, hydrological models of flood risk have superseded the traditional statistical insurance loss models. A decade later, medically-motivated computational models of mortality risk can be expected to gain increasing prominence in longevity risk management.