bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
The Financial and Operating Performance of Newly Privatized Firms: An International Empirical Analysis
Authors: MEGGINSON WILLIAM L. , NASH ROBERT C. , VAN RANDENBORGH MATTHIAS 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis study compares the pre and postprivatization financial and operating performance of 61 companies from 18 countries and 32 industries that experience full or partial privatization through public share offerings during the period 1961 to 1990. Our results document strong performance improvements, achieved surprisingly without sacrificing employment security. Specifically, after being privatized, firms increase real sales, become more profitable, increase their capital investment spending, improve their operating efficiency, and increase their work forces. Furthermore, these companies significantly lower their debt levels and increase dividend payout. Finally, we document significant changes in the size and composition of corporate boards of directors after privatization.
On Cointegration and Exchange Rate Dynamics
Authors: DIEBOLD FRANCIS X. , GARDEAZABAL JAVIER , YILMAZ KAMIL 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTBaillie and Bollerslev (1989) have recently argued that nominal dollar spot exchange rates are cointegrated. Here we examine an immediate implication of their finding, namely, that cointegration implies an error‐correction representation yielding forecasts superior to those from a martingale benchmark, in light of a large earlier literature highlighting the predictive superiority of the martingale. In an out‐of‐sample forecasting exercise, we find the martingale model to be superior. We then perform a battery of improved cointegration tests and find that the evidence for cointegration is much less strong than previously thought, a result consistent with the outcome of the forecasting exercise.
Survival
Authors: BROWN STEPHEN J. , GOETZMANN WILLIAM N. , ROSS STEPHEN A. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTEmpirical analysis of rates of return in finance implicitly condition on the security surviving into the sample. We investigate the implications of such conditioning on the time series of rates of return. In general this conditioning induces a spurious relationship between observed return and total risk for those securities that survive to be included in the sample. This result has immediate implications for the equity premium puzzle. We show how these results apply to other outstanding problems of empirical finance. Long‐term autocorrelation studies focus on the statistical relation between successive holding period returns, where the holding period is of possibly extensive duration. If the equity market survives, then we find that average return in the beginning is higher than average return near the end of the time period. For this reason, statistical measures of long‐term dependence are typically biased towards the rejection of a random walk. The result also has implications for event studies. There is a strong association between the magnitude of an earnings announcement and the postannouncement performance of the equity. This might be explained in part as an artefact of the stock price performance of firms in financial distress that survive an earnings announcement. The final example considers stock split studies. In this analysis we implicitly exclude securities whose price on announcement is less than the prior average stock price. We apply our results to this case, and find that the condition that the security forms part of our positive stock split sample suffices to explain the upward trend in event‐related cumulated excess return in the preannouncement period.
One Security, Many Markets: Determining the Contributions to Price Discovery
Authors: HASBROUCK JOEL 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTWhen homogeneous or closely‐linked securities trade in multiple markets, it is often of interest to determine where price discovery (the incorporation of new information) occurs. This article suggests an econometric approach based on an implicit unobservable efficient price common to all markets. The information share associated with a particular market is defined as the proportional contribution of that market's innovations to the innovation in the common efficient price. Applied to quotes for the thirty Dow stocks, the technique suggests that the preponderance of the price discovery takes place at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) (a median 92.7 percent information share).
Time‐Varying Expected Returns in International Bond Markets
Authors: ILMANEN ANTTI 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis article examines the predictable variation in long‐maturity government bond returns in six countries. A small set of global instruments can forecast 4 to 12 percent of monthly variation in excess bond returns. The predictable variation is statistically and economically significant. Moreover, expected excess bond returns are highly correlated across countries. A model with one global risk factor and constant conditional betas can explain international bond return predictability if the risk factor is proxied by the world excess bond return, but not if it is proxied by the world excess stock return.
Testing the Expectations Hypothesis on the Term Structure of Volatilities in Foreign Exchange Options
Authors: CAMPA JOSÉ MANUEL , CHANG P. H. KEVIN 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis article tests the expectations hypothesis in the term structure of volatilities in foreign exchange options. In particular, it addresses whether long‐dated volatility quotes are consistent with expected future short‐dated volatility quotes, assuming rational expectations. For options observed daily from December 1, 1989 to August 31, 1992 on dollar exchange rates against the pound, mark, yen, and Swiss franc, we are unable to reject the expectations hypothesis in the great majority of cases. The current spread between long‐ and short‐dated volatility rates proves to be a significant predictor of the direction of future short‐dated rates.
The Maturity Structure of Corporate Debt
Authors: BARCLAY MICHAEL J. , SMITH CLIFFORD W. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTWe provide an empirical examination of the determinants of corporate debt maturity. Our evidence offers strong support for the contracting‐cost hypothesis. Firms that have few growth options, are large, or are regulated have more long‐term debt in their capital structure. We find little evidence that firms use the maturity structure of their debt to signal information to the market. The evidence is consistent, however, with the hypothesis that firms with larger information asymmetries issue more short‐term debt. We find no evidence that taxes affect debt maturity.
Debt Financing under Asymmetric Information
Authors: GOSWAMI GAUTAM , NOE THOMAS , REBELLO MICHAEL 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTWe analyze the optimal design of debt maturity, coupon payments, and dividend payout restrictions under asymmetric information. We show that, if the asymmetry of information is concentrated around long‐term cash flows, firms finance with coupon‐bearing long‐term debt that partially restricts dividend payments. If the asymmetry of information is concentrated around near‐term cash flows and there exists considerable refinancing risk, firms finance with coupon‐bearing long‐term debt that does not restrict dividend payments. Finally, if the asymmetry of information is uniformly distributed across dates, firms finance with short‐term debt.
Postbankruptcy Performance and Management Turnover
Authors: HOTCHKISS EDITH SHWALB 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis article examines the performance of 197 public companies that emerged from Chapter 11. Over 40 percent of the sample firms continue to experience operating losses in the three years following bankruptcy; 32 percent reenter bankruptcy or privately restructure their debt. The continued involvement of prebankruptcy management in the restructuring process is strongly associated with poor post‐bankruptcy performance. The substantial number of firms emerging from Chapter 11 that are not viable or need further restructuring provides little evidence that the process effectively rehabilitates distressed firms and is consistent with the view that there are economically important biases toward continuation of unprofitable firms.
Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk
Authors: JARROW ROBERT A. , TURNBULL STUART M. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis article provides a new methodology for pricing and hedging derivative securities involving credit risk. Two types of credit risks are considered. The first is where the asset underlying the derivative security may default. The second is where the writer of the derivative security may default. We apply the foreign currency analogy of Jarrow and Turnbull (1991) to decompose the dollar payoff from a risky security into a certain payoff and a “spot exchange rate.” Arbitrage‐free valuation techniques are then employed. This methodology can be applied to corporate debt and over the counter derivatives, such as swaps and caps.
Information Quality, Performance Measurement, and Security Demand in Rational Expectations Economies
Authors: NOE THOMAS H. , RAMAMURTIE BUDDHAVARAPU SAILESH 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThe relationship between asset demand and information quality in rational expectations economies is analyzed. First we derive a number of new summary descriptive statistics that measure four basic characteristics of investment style: asset selection, market timing, aggressiveness, and specialization. Then we relate these statistics to the divergence between a given investor's information structure and the market average information structure. Finally, we demonstrate that informational differentials can be identified, and consistently estimated, using ordinary least squares, from the time‐series of observed asset demand.
Good News, Bad News, Volatility, and Betas
Authors: BRAUN PHILLIP A. , NELSON DANIEL B. , SUNIER ALAIN M. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTWe investigate the conditional covariances of stock returns using bivariate exponential ARCH (EGARCH) models. These models allow market volatility, portfolio‐specific volatility, and beta to respond asymmetrically to positive and negative market and portfolio returns, i.e., “leverage” effects. Using monthly data, we find strong evidence of conditional heteroskedasticity in both market and non‐market components of returns, and weaker evidence of time‐varying conditional betas. Surprisingly while leverage effects appear strong in the market component of volatility, they are absent in conditional betas and weak and/or inconsistent in nonmarket sources of risk.
An Empirical Analysis of the Limit Order Book and the Order Flow in the Paris Bourse
Authors: BIAIS BRUNO , HILLION PIERRE , SPATT CHESTER 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTAs a centralized, computerized, limit order market, the Paris Bourse is particularly appropriate for studying the interaction between the order book and order flow. Descriptive methods capture the richness of the data and distinctive aspects of the market structure. Order flow is concentrated near the quote, while the depth of the book is somewhat larger at nearby valuations. We analyze the supply and demand of liquidity. For example, thin books elicit orders and thick books result in trades. To gain price and time priority, investors quickly place orders within the quotes when the depth at the quotes or the spread is large. Consistent with information effects, downward (upward) shifts in both bid and ask quotes occur after large sales (purchases).
Does the Liquidity of a Debt Issue Increase with Its Size? Evidence from the Corporate Bond and Medium‐Term Note Markets
Authors: CRABBE LELAND E. , TURNER CHRISTOPHER M. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTTo investigate the liquidity of large issues, this study tests for yield differences between corporate bonds and medium‐term notes (MTNs). In the sample, MTNs have an average issue size of $4 million, compared with $265 million for bonds. Among MTNs that have the same issuance date, the same maturity date, and the same corporate issuer, we find no relation between size and yields. Moreover, bonds and MTNs have statistically equivalent yields. Thus, rather than suggesting that large issues have greater liquidity, these findings indicate that large and small securities issued by the same borrower are close substitutes.
Measuring Fund Strategy and Performance in Changing Economic Conditions
Authors: FERSON WAYNE E. , SCHADT RUDI W. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThe use of predetermined variables to represent public information and time‐variation has produced new insights about asset pricing models, but the literature on mutual fund performance has not exploited these insights. This paper advocates conditional performance evaluation in which the relevant expectations are conditioned on public information variables. We modify several classical performance measures to this end and find that the predetermined variables are both statistically and economically significant. Conditioning on public information controls for biases in traditional market timing models and makes the average performance of the mutual funds in our sample look better.
Oil and the Stock Markets
Authors: JONES CHARLES M. , KAUL GAUTAM 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTWe test whether the reaction of international stock markets to oil shocks can be justified by current and future changes in real cash flows and/or changes in expected returns. We find that in the postwar period, the reaction of United States and Canadian stock prices to oil shocks can be completely accounted for by the impact of these shocks on real cash flows alone. In contrast, in both the United Kingdom and Japan, innovations in oil prices appear to cause larger changes in stock prices than can be justified by subsequent changes in real cash flows or by changing expected returns.
Call and Continuous Trading Mechanisms Under Asymmetric Information: An Experimental Investigation
Authors: SCHNITZLEIN CHARLES R. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTI examine the relative performance of call and continuous auctions under asymmetric information by manipulating trading rules and information sets in laboratory asset markets. I find significant differences in an environment that extends the Kyle (1985) framework to permit the exogenous liquidity trading motive to have a natural economic interpretation. The adverse selection costs incurred by noise traders are significantly lower under the call auction, despite no significant reduction in average price efficiency. This result suggests that discussions of the costs and benefits of insider trading should take place within the context of a specific trading mechanism.
An Empirical Investigation of Short‐Selling Activity Prior to Seasoned Equity Offerings
Authors: SAFIEDDINE ASSEM , WILHELM WILLIAM J. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTWe investigate the nature and magnitude of short‐selling activity around seasoned equity offerings, the relation between short‐selling activity and issue discounts, and the consequences of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC's) adoption of Rule 10b‐21 in response to concerns about manipulative short‐selling practices. Seasoned offerings are characterized by abnormally high levels of short selling and option open interest. Higher levels of such activity are related to lower expected proceeds from the issuance of new shares. Where it could not be circumvented, Rule 10b‐21 appears to have curbed short‐selling activity and reduced issue discounts.
Swap Rates and Credit Quality
Authors: DUFFIE DARRELL , HUANG MING 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis article presents a model for valuing claims subject to default by both contracting parties, such as swaps and forwards. With counterparties of different default risk, the promised cash flows of a swap are discounted by a switching discount rate that, at any given state and time, is equal to the discount rate of the counterparty for whom the swap is currently out of the money (that is, a liability). The impact of credit‐risk asymmetry and of netting is presented through both theory and numerical examples, which include interest rate and currency swaps.
The Value of Diversification During the Conglomerate Merger Wave
Authors: SERVAES HENRI 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThe current trend toward corporate focus reverses the diversification trend of the late 1960s and early 1970s. This article examines the value of diversification when many corporations started to diversify. I find no evidence that diversified companies were valued at a premium over single segment firms during the 1960s and 1970s. On the contrary, there was a large diversification discount during the 1960s, but this discount declined to zero during the 1970s. Insider ownership was negatively related to diversification during the 1960s, but when the diversification discount declined, firms with high insider ownership were the first to diversify.
Liquidity, Information, and Infrequently Traded Stocks
Authors: EASLEY DAVID , KIEFER NICHOLAS M. , O'HARA MAUREEN , PAPERMAN JOSEPH B. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis article investigates whether differences in information‐based trading can explain observed differences in spreads for active and infrequently traded stocks. Using a new empirical technique, we estimate the risk of information‐based trading for a sample of New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) listed stocks. We use the information in trade data to determine how frequently new information occurs, the composition of trading when it does, and the depth of the market for different volume‐decile stocks. Our most important empirical result is that the probability of information‐based trading is lower for high volume stocks. Using regressions, we provide evidence of the economic importance of information‐based trading on spreads.
Earnings Announcements and the Components of the Bid‐Ask Spread
Authors: KRINSKY ITZHAK , LEE JASON 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThis study investigates the behavior of the components of the bid‐ask spread around earnings announcements. We find that the adverse selection cost component significantly increases surrounding the announcements, while the inventory holding and order processing components significantly decline during the same periods. Our results suggest that the directional change in the total bid‐ask spread depends on the relative magnitudes of the changes in these three components. Specifically, the decreases in inventory holding costs and order processing costs imply that earnings announcements may have an insignificant impact on the total bid‐ask spread, even when they result in increased information asymmetry.
The Conditional CAPM and the Cross‐Section of Expected Returns
Authors: JAGANNATHAN RAVI , WANG ZHENYU 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTMost empirical studies of the static CAPM assume that betas remain constant over time and that the return on the value‐weighted portfolio of all stocks is a proxy for the return on aggregate wealth. The general consensus is that the static CAPM is unable to explain satisfactorily the cross‐section of average returns on stocks. We assume that the CAPM holds in a conditional sense, i.e., betas and the market risk premium vary over time. We include the return on human capital when measuring the return on aggregate wealth. Our specification performs well in explaining the cross‐section of average returns.
Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies
Authors: FAMA EUGENE F. , FRENCH KENNETH R. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTPrevious work shows that average returns on common stocks are related to firm characteristics like size, earnings/price, cash flow/price, book‐to‐market equity, past sales growth, long‐term past return, and short‐term past return. Because these patterns in average returns apparently are not explained by the CAPM, they are called anomalies. We find that, except for the continuation of short‐term returns, the anomalies largely disappear in a three‐factor model. Our results are consistent with rational ICAPM or APT asset pricing, but we also consider irrational pricing and data problems as possible explanations.
Return Volatility and Trading Volume: An Information Flow Interpretation of Stochastic Volatility
Authors: ANDERSEN TORBEN G. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTThe paper develops an empirical return volatility‐trading volume model from a microstructure framework in which informational asymmetries and liquidity needs motivate trade in response to information arrivals. The resulting system modifies the so‐called “Mixture of Distribution Hypothesis” (MDH). The dynamic features are governed by the information flow, modeled as a stochastic volatility process, and generalize standard ARCH specifications. Specification tests support the modified MDH representation and show that it vastly outperforms the standard MDH. The findings suggest that the model may be useful for analysis of the economic factors behind the observed volatility clustering in returns.
Capital Requirements, Monetary Policy, and Aggregate Bank Lending: Theory and Empirical Evidence
Authors: THAKOR ANJAN V. 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTCapital requirements linked solely to credit risk are shown to increase equilibrium credit rationing and lower aggregate lending. The model predicts that the bank's decision to lend will cause an abnormal runup in the borrower's stock price and that this reaction will be greater the more capital‐constrained the bank. I provide empirical support for this prediction. The model explains the recent inability of the Federal Reserve to stimulate bank lending by increasing the money supply. I show that increasing the money supply can either raise or lower lending when capital requirements are linked only to credit risk.
A Simple Nonparametric Approach to Derivative Security Valuation
Authors: STUTZER MICHAEL 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTCanonical valuation uses historical time series to predict the probability distribution of the discounted value of primary assets' discounted prices plus accumulated dividends at any future date. Then the axiomatically‐rationalized maximum entropy principle is used to estimate risk‐neutral (equivalent martingale) probabilities that correctly price the primary assets, as well as any predesignated subset of derivative securities whose payoffs occur at this date. Valuation of other derivative securities proceeds by calculation of its discounted, risk‐neutral expected value. Both simulation and empirical evidence suggest that canonical valuation has merit.
Expectations and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns
Authors: LA PORTA RAFAEL 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTPrevious research has shown that stocks with low prices relative to book value, cash flow, earnings, or dividends (that is, value stocks) earn high returns. Value stocks may earn high returns because they are more risky. Alternatively, systematic errors in expectations may explain the high returns earned by value stocks. I test for the existence of systematic errors using survey data on forecasts by stock market analysts. I show that investment strategies that seek to exploit errors in analysts' forecasts earn superior returns because expectations about future growth in earnings are too extreme.
Tests of the Relations Among Marketwide Factors, Firm‐Specific Variables, and Stock Returns Using a Conditional Asset Pricing Model
Authors: HE JIA , KAN RAYMOND , NG LILIAN , ZHANG CHU 
Published: April 2012

ABSTRACTIn this article we generalize Harvey's (1989) empirical specification of conditional asset pricing models to allow for both time‐varying covariances between stock returns and marketwide factors and time‐varying reward‐to‐covariabilities. The model is then applied to examine the effects of firm size and book‐to‐market equity ratios. We find that the traditional asset pricing model with commonly used factors can only explain a small portion of the stock returns predicted by firm size and book‐to‐market equity ratios. The results indicate that allowing time‐varying covariances and time‐varying reward‐to‐covariabilities does little to salvage the traditional asset pricing models.