#294 Pragmatic literature reviews to populate a patient-level model to project the future clinical burden of CKD in low-and middle-income countries
Authors: Correa-Rotter Ricardo , Ngigi John , Holt Steve , Cong Luong Nguyen , Sanchez Juan Jose Garcia , Solorzano Jaime , Goncalves Susana , Guzek John , Mitchyn Markiyan , Webber Laura , Retat Lise 
Published: May 2024

Abstract

Background and Aims
Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) affects approximately one in ten people around the world and is associated with an increased risk of adverse cardiorenal outcomes and mortality. In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), the situation is aggravated by the paucity of kidney replacement therapies (KRTs). The objective of this study was to review the literature around CKD prevalence to understand the future epidemiology and economic burden of CKD in four LMICs from different continents.

Method
Inside CKD is a project designed to perform a microsimulation on a representative patient cohort to simulate renal disease progression into the future, and to model the effects of interventions based on population and disease characteristics. A pragmatic literature review was performed to obtain the inputs required to adapt the Inside CKD model to project the epidemiological and economic burden of CKD in four World Bank (2022) classified LMICs (Bolivia, Kenya, Sri Lanka and Uzbekistan). Using a data quality scoring system designed for the Inside CKD programme, a model input template was created to guide the country-specific literature search, to identify country demographics, epidemiological data including CKD staging data, renal registries, comorbidities (type 2 diabetes and hypertension), complications data (stroke, myocardial infarction, heart failure) and economic data including health costs and quality-of-life measures. Additional needs, challenges or country specific risk factors have also been identified.

Results
Literature reviews identified the best sources of demographic, epidemiological data as well as the main drivers of CKD in the four countries (e.g. hypertension, type 2 diabetes, heart failure). In addition, the reviews identified the best proxy data to use when country-specific data was not available. The UN World Prospects database was selected to derive the current and future population dynamics in the four countries. For Kenya, data from local sources, sub-Saharan African and Uganda were utilised to estimate the primary drivers of CKD: a 2018 meta-analysis reported a CKD prevalence of 18% in sub-Saharan Africa and was used to derive the eGFR and UACR data required to project CKD prevalence. CKD prevalence by stage was also identified for Bolivia. A large-scale study across 12 countries with consistent methodology estimated a CKD prevalence of around 5.5% in Bolivia. CKD data from Kazakhstan was selected as a proxy for Uzbekistan, which had a low prevalence of 1.3%. Country-specific challenges were also identified: in Kenya, results showed the importance of malnutrition, infection and climate as key drivers of CKD. In Sri Lanka and Uzbekistan, environmental factors (air and water pollution) and agricultural activity may contribute to high CKD prevalence in rural areas alongside more common risk factors such as hypertension. In Sri Lanka, CKD has been estimated at around 8.2% in the general population versus 15.0% in areas where groundwater is consumed. For Bolivia, additional parameters including occupation, altitude, seasonal weather variation and extreme temperatures may exacerbate CKD risk.

Conclusion
CKD is a major public health problem in LMICs but with diverse drivers. Local capacities and healthcare financing priorities vary between regions and depend upon competing demands of acute conditions, infections and non-communicable diseases. Forecasting future CKD burden is helpful for policy and planning purposes. There is a clear need to tailor policies beyond early screening and proactive management to tackle country-specific challenges such as occupation, infection, seasonal weather variation and genetics.