Increased Upstream Asset NPV with Forecasting, Prediction, and Operational Plan Adaptation in Real Time
Authors: Orenstein Horia 
Published: February 2011

Abstract
"Knowledge makes you free from the chains of ignorance, and revives your heart, knowledge takes you out from the darkness of suspicions and superstitions, and gives a new light to your eyes." Hazrat Abu Ali Saqfi
Managing an operating asset in the oil and gas industry is a complex activity: the physical process needs to be controlled in such a way that its technical objectives are achieved, while the multitude of technical process parameters handled are being kept within their operational envelope, according to physical and chemical rules; the complex technical equipment supporting the physical process needs to deliver momentarily the technical process parameters as required by the technical process, while the sustainability of its reliability and integrity is being maximized; the asset’s operating mode has to be changed with an acceptable frequency, according to economic, social and strategic requirements, and all operating modes, as well as the transitions from one operating mode to another, have to comply with the technical process feasibility and the equipment reliability and integrity criteria from above; regulatory constrains reduce the degrees of freedom for the technical and economic objectives, while adding new tags to the list of parameters to monitor and control; last but not least, the safety of the staff working on the asset and of the natural and social environment in which the asset is being implanted is a matter of concern which needs to be also monitored and controlled.
The conclusion is that the management of an operating asset is the joint effort of many disciplines and hierarchies which require coordination of people and their knowledge, procedures embedded in work and business processes, data, handling of ICT and technical means, interaction with the asset’s equipment. This effort is only then successful, if it is guided by a clear strategy, the stakeholders are aligned and mobilized towards the strategic goals, the risks are known, risk mitigation and performance accomplishment instruments exist and continuous governance is applied and accepted.
This paper starts with an assumption which has been demonstrated and confirmed in practice: the coordination necessary for the effective management of an operated asset in the oil and gas industry is being made possible through the collaboration of all disciplines and hierarchies involved. Taking further in consideration that in today’s world more operating modes are being added by market, political and social demand, the transitions from one operating mode to another occur more frequently and the regulations grow tougher, this paper asserts that the management of operated assets is confronted with an increase of disruptions and opportunities which need to be handled in very short time. The consequence is that the operated oil and gas assets need today to manage the disruptive events and the occurring opportunities by adapting opportunistically the plans for target achievements. The collaborative real-time event management and plan adaptation is defined in this paper as Managed Collaboration and Real-Time Decision Making.
This paper will present a practical case where an innovative Asset Operation Optimization solution has been implemented to introduce and ensure Managed Collaboration in an operated asset, and between this and an Onshore Operation Center, with the result of efficient Real-Time Decision Making in planning the right actions for the right situations and proactively preventing disruptions by predicting early performance deviations.