bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Mimicking Portfolios with Conditioning Information
Authors: Ferson Wayne , Siegel Andrew F. , Xu Pisun (Tracy) 
Published: April 2009

AbstractMimicking portfolios have long been useful in asset pricing research. In most empirical applications, the portfolio weights are assumed to be fixed over time, while in theory they may be functions of the economic state. This paper derives and characterizes mimicking portfolios in the presence of predetermined state variables, or conditioning information. The results generalize and integrate multifactor minimum variance efficiency (Fama (1996)) with conditional and unconditional mean-variance efficiency (Hansen and Richard (1987), Ferson and Siegel (2001)). Empirical examples illustrate the potential importance of time-varying mimicking portfolio weights and highlight challenges in their application.
Mean Reversion in G-10 Nominal Exchange Rates
Authors: Sweeney Richard J. 
Published: April 2009

AbstractAccording to conventional wisdom, industrial country floating exchange rates contain unit roots. SUR tests on panels of monthly Group of Ten (G-10) log nominal rates reject the null of unit roots for various samples over the current float with significance levels from 0.5% to 15%. On average, in out-of-sample forecasts mean reversion models beat random walks significantly in some forecast periods. For monthly data, the range of expected USD-DEM appreciation rates exceeds 15% per year in the mean reversion model. Mean reversion places strong restrictions on international models: over the sample period, the G-10 had to run monetary policies consistent with stable long-run nominal rates.
Leasing and Debt Financing: Substitutes or Complements?
Authors: Yan An 
Published: April 2009

AbstractTraditional finance theories typically treat leases and debt as substitutes. However, the empirical findings on the relation between leases and debt are mixed. This paper reinvestigates this relation. I present a model to incorporate different theories on the substitutability and complementarity between leases and debt, and I test the model implications empirically in a GMM framework that simultaneously controls for endogeneity problems and firms' fixed effects. The findings suggest that leases and debt are substitutes instead of complements. I also investigate the variation in the substitutability between leases and debt, and find that in those firms with more growth options or larger marginal tax rates, or in those firms paying no dividends, the substitutability is more pronounced, i.e., the cost of new debt increases to a larger degree with extra leases.
Financial Development and the Cash Flow Sensitivity of Cash
Authors: Khurana Inder K. , Martin Xiumin , Pereira Raynolde 
Published: April 2009

AbstractPrior research posits that market imperfections and the lack of institutions that protect investor interests create a divergence between the cost of internal and external funds, thereby constraining firms' ability to fund investment projects through external financing. Financial constraints force firms to manage their cash flows to finance potentially profitable projects. A related stream of research documents that financial constraints due to costly external financing are more pronounced in underdeveloped financial markets. We examine the influence of financial development on the demand for liquidity by focusing on how financial development affects the sensitivity of firms' cash holdings to their cash flows. Using firm-level data for 35 countries covering about 12,782 firms for the years 1994–2002, we find the sensitivity of cash holdings to cash flows decreases with financial development. We also consider additional implications of firms' cash flow sensitivity of cash with respect to firm size and business cycles. Overall, we provide new cross-country evidence of the role of financial development on financial constraints.
Arbitrage with Fixed Costs and Interest Rate Models
Authors: Jouini Elyès , Napp Clotilde 
Published: April 2009

AbstractWe study securities market models with fixed costs. We first characterize the absence of arbitrage opportunities and provide fair pricing rules. We then apply these results to extend some popular interest rate and option pricing models that present arbitrage opportunities in the absence of fixed costs. In particular, we prove that the quite striking result obtained by Dybvig, Ingersoll, and Ross (1996), which asserts that under the assumption of absence of arbitrage long zero-coupon rates can never fall, is no longer true in models with fixed costs, even arbitrarily small fixed costs. For instance, models in which the long-term rate follows a diffusion process are arbitrage-free in the presence of fixed costs (including arbitrarily small fixed costs). We also rationalize models with partially absorbing or reflecting barriers on the price processes. We propose a version of the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1985) model which, consistent with Longstaff (1992), produces yield curves with realistic humps, but does not assume an absorbing barrier for the short-term rate. This is made possible by the presence of (even arbitrarily small) fixed costs.
Tick Size and Institutional Trading Costs: Evidence from Mutual Funds
Authors: Bollen Nicolas P. B. , Busse Jeffrey A. 
Published: April 2009

AbstractThis paper measures changes in mutual fund trading costs following two reductions in the tick size of U.S. equity markets: the switch from eighths to sixteenths and the subsequent switch to decimals. We estimate trading costs by comparing a mutual fund's daily returns to the daily returns of a synthetic benchmark portfolio that matches the fund's holdings but has zero trading costs by construction. We find that the average change in trading costs of actively managed funds was positive following both reductions in tick size with a larger and statistically significant increase following decimalization. In contrast, index fund trading costs were unaffected.
Do Behavioral Biases Vary across Individuals? Evidence from Individual Level 401(k) Data
Authors: Agnew Julie R. 
Published: April 2009

AbstractThis paper investigates whether some individuals are prone to behavioral biases in their 401(k) investments. Using demographic data and allocation information for over 73,000 employees, I examine two allocation biases and a participation bias. The findings suggest that higher salaried employees tend to make significantly better choices. Participants who earn $100, 000 hold 12. 7% less in company stock, are 3% less likely to follow the framing 1/nheuristic, and are 37.7% more likely to participate than those earning $46, 000. Women make better choices in two of the three cases and I find evidence of mental accounting.
Control Transfers, Privatization, and Corporate Performance: Efficiency Gains in China's Listed Companies
Authors: Chen Gongmeng , Firth Michael , Xin Yu , Xu Liping 
Published: April 2009

AbstractWe investigate performance effects for China's listed firms when there is a change in the controlling shareholder. These changes include ownership transfers from one state entity to another state entity and from a state entity to a private entity. We find positive performance effects when control is passed to a private entity. In contrast, when the transfer is made to another branch of the state, there is little change in performance. The stock market responds positively to a change in control, with the largest effect observed for private transfers. Our results suggest the Chinese government should continue to sell down its share ownership in listed firms as the transfer of control to private owners enhances corporate profitability and efficiency. Moreover, to help ownership reform, China should encourage an active market for corporate control.
Liquidity in the Futures Pits: Inferring Market Dynamics from Incomplete Data
Authors: Hasbrouck Joel 
Published: April 2009

AbstractMotivated by economic models of sequential trade, empirical analyses of market dynamics frequently estimate liquidity as the coefficient of signed order flow in a price change regression. This paper implements such an analysis for futures transaction data from pit trading. To deal with the absence of timely bid and ask quotes (which are used to sign trades in most equity market studies), this paper proposes new techniques based on Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation. The model is estimated for four representative Chicago Mercantile Exchange contracts. The highest liquidity (lowest order flow coefficient) is found for the S&P 500 index. Liquidity for the Euro and U.K. £ contracts is somewhat lower. The pork belly contract exhibits the least liquidity.
Weather, Stock Returns, and the Impact of Localized Trading Behavior
Authors: Loughran Tim , Schultz Paul 
Published: April 2009

AbstractWe document by several methods that trading in Nasdaq stocks is localized, but find little evidence that cloudy weather in the city in which a company is based affects its returns. The first evidence of localized trading is that the time zone of a company's headquarters affects intraday trading patterns in its stock. Second, firms in blizzard-struck cities see a dramatic trading volume drop compared to firms in other cities. Third, the Yom Kippur holiday dampens trading volume in companies located in cities with high Jewish populations. Despite the strong evidence of localized trading, cloudy conditions near the firm's headquarters do not provide profitable trading opportunities.
Price Dynamics in the Regular and E-Mini Futures Markets
Authors: Kurov Alexander , Lasser Dennis J. 
Published: April 2009

AbstractThis paper examines the price dynamics in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 index futures contracts. By utilizing transactions data with attached trader type identification codes, we are able to analyze price dynamics for trades initiated by exchange locals and off-exchange customers. The empirical results show that price discovery appears to be initiated in the E-mini index futures contracts and that trades initiated by exchange locals seem to be more informative than those initiated by off-exchange traders. Furthermore, results show that exchange locals appear to make informed trades on the E-mini contracts around large trades that occur on the open outcry floor. We maintain that the exchange locals' ability to observe pit dynamics may contribute toward explaining the price leadership of the Emini contracts. Overall, the results are consistent with the notion that exchange locals are informed traders who derive their informational advantage from the proximity to order flow.
Opportunity Cost of Capital for Venture Capital Investors and Entrepreneurs
Authors: Kerins Frank , Smith Janet Kiholm , Smith Richard 
Published: April 2009

AbstractWe use a database of recent high tech IPOs to estimate opportunity cost of capital for venture capital investors and entrepreneurs. Entrepreneurs face the risk-return tradeoff of the CAPM as the opportunity cost of holding a portfolio that necessarily is underdiversified. For early stage firms, we estimate the effects of underdiversification, industry, and financial maturity on opportunity cost. Assuming a one-year holding period, the entrepreneur's opportunity cost generally is two to four times as high as that of a well-diversified investor. With a 4.0% risk-free rate and 6.0% market risk premium, for the sample average, we estimate the cost of capital of a well-diversified investor to be 11.4%, which equates to 16.7% before the management fees and carried interest of a typical venture capital fund. For an entrepreneur with 25% of total wealth invested in the venture, our corresponding estimate of cost of capital is 40.0%.
Abnormal Returns from the Common Stock Investments of the U.S. Senate
Authors: Ziobrowski Alan J. , Cheng Ping , Boyd James W. , Ziobrowski Brigitte J. 
Published: April 2009

AbstractThe actions of the federal government can have a profound impact on financial markets. As prominent participants in the government decision making process, U.S. Senators are likely to have knowledge of forthcoming government actions before the information becomes public. This could provide them with an informational advantage over other investors. We test for abnormal returns from the common stock investments of members of the U.S. Senate during the period 1993–1998. We document that a portfolio that mimics the purchases of U.S. Senators beats the market by 85 basis points per month, while a portfolio that mimics the sales of Senators lags the market by 12 basis points per month. The large difference in the returns of stocks bought and sold (nearly one percentage point per month) is economically large and reliably positive.
Capital Investments and Stock Returns
Authors: Titman Sheridan , Wei K. C. John , Xie Feixue 
Published: April 2009

AbstractFirms that substantially increase capital investments subsequently achieve negative benchmark-adjusted returns. The negative abnormal capital investment/return relation is shown to be stronger for firms that have greater investment discretion, i.e., firms with higher cash flows and lower debt ratios, and is shown to be significant only in time periods when hostile takeovers were less prevalent. These observations are consistent with the hypothesis that investors tend to underreact to the empire building implications of increased investment expenditures. Although firms that increase capital investments tend to have high past returns and often issue equity, the negative abnormal capital investment/return relation is independent of the previously documented long-term return reversal and secondary equity issue anomalies.
The Allocation and Monitoring Role of Capital Markets: Theory and International Evidence
Authors: Tadesse Solomon 
Published: April 2009

AbstractCapital markets perform two distinct functions: provision of capital and facilitation of good governance through information production and monitoring. I argue that the governance function has more impact on the efficiency with which resources are utilized within the firm. Based on industry-level data across 38 countries, I present evidence suggesting a positive relation between market-based governance and improvements in industry efficiency. The measures of governance are also positively correlated with productivity improvements and growth in real output. Furthermore, while governance affects efficiency, the capital provision services induce technological change. The evidence underscores the role of capital markets as a conduit of socially valuable governance services as distinct from capital provision.
Managerial Entrenchment and Payout Policy
Authors: Hu Aidong , Kumar Praveen 
Published: April 2009

AbstractBuilding on the managerial entrenchment literature, we develop and test a novel perspective
on payout policy that integrates the influence of internal governance mechanisms, investment opportunities, management compensation, and monitoring by large shareholders. Our study incorporates both dividend payments and share repurchases, and examines the determinants of the likelihood and the level of payouts. Our model performs well in both in-sample and out-of-sample predictions on a sample of 2,081 firms during 1992–2000. We find that both the likelihood and the level of payouts are significantly and positively (negatively) related to factors that increase (decrease) executive entrenchment levels, even when controlling for size, leverage, and the proportion of tangible to total assets. We identify factors that significantly affect the likelihood but not the level of payouts (or vice versa), and show that entrenchment has an asymmetric influence on dividend vs. shares repurchase policy.
Stock Market Liquidity and Firm Dividend Policy
Authors: Banerjee Suman , Gatchev Vladimir A. , Spindt Paul A. 
Published: April 2009

AbstractWe provide evidence of a link between firm dividend policy and stock market liquidity. In the cross section, owners of less (more) liquid common stock are more (less) likely to receive cash dividends. Predictions of the proportion of dividend payers based on 1963–1977 cross-sectional estimates account for most of the declining propensity of firms to pay dividends as documented by Fama and French (2001). Furthermore, historic liquidity is an important determinant of dividend initiations and omissions. Finally, we show that sensitivity of firm value to aggregate liquidity declines after dividend initiations, suggesting that investors view stock market liquidity and dividends as substitutes.
Why Do Firms Go Dark?
Authors: Marosi András , Massoud Nadia 
Published: April 2009

AbstractIn recent years, a number of firms and banks have decided to “go dark,” i.e., deregister with the Securities and Exchange Commission and delist from the major exchanges despite having a large number of outside shareholders. This paper seeks to answer two important questions: Why do firms choose to go dark? What are the consequences for shareholders? We find that firms with fewer valuable growth opportunities, greater insider ownership, lower institutional ownership, higher leverage, and lower market momentum are more likely to go dark. Furthermore, the cost of regulatory compliance is a driving force behind the going dark phenomenon.
Incentive Contracts and Hedge Fund Management
Authors: Hodder James E. , Jackwerth Jens Carsten 
Published: April 2009

AbstractWe investigate incentive effects of a typical hedge fund contract for a manager with power utility. With a one-year horizon, the manager displays risk taking that varies dramatically with fund value. We extend the model to multiple yearly evaluation periods and find that the manager's risk taking is rapidly moderated if the fund performs reasonably well. The most realistic approach to modeling fund closure uses an endogenous shutdown barrier where the manager optimally chooses to shut down. The manager increases risk taking as fund value approaches that barrier, and this boundary behavior persists strongly with multiyear horizons.
Forecasting Currency Excess Returns: Can the Forward Bias Be Exploited?
Authors: Villanueva O. Miguel 
Published: April 2009

AbstractThe forward bias anomaly implies that currency excess returns are predictable by the forward premium. Yet, recent studies suggest that statistical inference problems may spuriously account for this predictability. This article demonstrates that while currency excess returns are not predictable out of sample using a standard mean square forecast error criterion, the forward premium nonetheless has directional predictability. This directional forecasting accuracy translates into statistically significant profits from trading on the forward bias anomaly.
The Effect of Shareholder Taxes on Corporate Payout Choice
Authors: Moser William J. 
Published: April 2009

abstractThis study investigates whether the difference in individual shareholder tax rates between dividend income and capital gain (the dividend tax penalty) affects a firm's choice between distributing funds to shareholders through dividends or share repurchases. The results of this study suggest that, in periods in which the dividend tax penalty increases, firms are more likely to distribute funds to shareholders through share repurchases as opposed to dividends. The results also indicate that the relation between the dividend tax penalty and corporate payout choice is affected by the types of shareholders who own stock in the firm. As tax-disfavored institutional ownership increases and the dividend tax penalty increases, firms are more likely to repurchase shares as opposed to distributing dividends. In contrast, as tax-favored institutional ownership increases and the dividend tax penalty increases, firms are less likely to repurchase shares as opposed to distributing dividends. As senior managerial share ownership increases and the dividend tax penalty increases, firms are more likely to make distributions to shareholders in the form of share repurchases.
Reassessing the Impact of Option Introductions on Market Quality: A Less Restrictive Test for Event-Date Effects
Authors: Danielsen Bartley R. , van Ness Bonnie F. , Warr Richard S. 
Published: April 2009

AbstractPrior research concludes that option introductions improve the average liquidity of the underlying stocks. We develop an improved, generalizable test to assess whether market quality changes occur on or near an event date. Applying this method to option listing events, we conclude that options do not systematically improve the market quality of the underlying security; rather, the market quality of the underlying security improves before the listing decision. Hazard model tests indicate that improving liquidity is a selection criterion in the option listing decision. Moreover, these tests suggest that the size of a stock's bid-ask spread is the single most important option listing determinant.
Are Household Portfolios Efficient? an Analysis Conditional on Housing
Authors: Pelizzon Loriana , Weber Guglielmo 
Published: April 2009

AbstractStandard tests of portfolio efficiency neglect the existence of illiquid wealth. The most important illiquid asset in household portfolios is housing: if housing stock adjustments are infrequent, optimal portfolios in periods of no adjustment are affected by housing price risk through a hedge term and tests for portfolio efficiency of financial assets must be run conditionally upon housing wealth. We use Italian household portfolio data and time series on financial assets and housing stock returns to assess whether actual portfolios are efficient. We find that housing wealth plays a key role in determining whether portfolios chosen by homeowners are efficient.
Macroeconomic News, Order Flows, and Exchange Rates
Authors: Love Ryan , Payne Richard 
Published: April 2009

AbstractIn textbook models of exchange rate determination, the news contained in public information announcements is directly impounded into prices with there being no role for trading in this process of information assimilation. This paper directly tests this theoretical result using transaction level exchange rate return and trading data and a sample of scheduled macroeconomic announcements. The main result of the paper is that even information that is publicly and simultaneously released to all market participants is partially impounded into prices via the key micro level price determinant—order flow. We quantify the role that order flow plays and find that approximately one third of price-relevant information is incorporated via the trading process.
Sharpe Ratios and Alphas in Continuous Time
Authors: Nielsen Lars Tyge , Vassalou Maria 
Published: April 2009

AbstractThis paper proposes modified versions of the Sharpe ratio and Jensen's alpha, which are appropriate in a simple continuous-time model. Both are derived from optimal portfolio selection. The modified Sharpe ratio equals the ordinary Sharpe ratio plus half of the volatility of the fund. The modified alpha also differs from the ordinary alpha by a second-moment adjustment. The modified and the ordinary Sharpe ratios may rank funds differently. In particular, if two funds have the same ordinary Sharpe ratio, then the one with the higher volatility will rank higher according to the modified Sharpe ratio. This is justified by the underlying dynamic portfolio theory. Unlike their discrete-time versions, the continuous-time performance measures take into account that it is optimal for investors to change the fractions of their wealth held in the fund vs. the riskless asset over time.