bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Flash flood modeling with the MARINE hydrological distributed model
Authors: Estupina-Borrell V. , Dartus D. , Ababou R. 
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Flash floods are characterized by their violence and the rapidity of their occurrence. Because these events are rare and unpredictable, but also fast and intense, their anticipation with sufficient lead time for warning and broadcasting is a primary subject of research. Because of the heterogeneities of the rain and of the behavior of the surface, spatially distributed hydrological models can lead to a better understanding of the processes and so on they can contribute to a better forecasting of flash flood. Our main goal here is to develop an operational and robust methodology for flash flood forecasting. This methodology should provide relevant data (information) about flood evolution on short time scales, and should be applicable even in locations where direct observations are sparse (e.g. absence of historical and modern rainfalls and streamflows in small mountainous watersheds). The flash flood forecast is obtained by the physically based, space-time distributed hydrological model "MARINE'' (Model of Anticipation of Runoff and INondations for Extreme events). This model is presented and tested in this paper for a real flash flood event. The model consists in two steps, or two components: the first component is a "basin'' flood module which generates flood runoff in the upstream part of the watershed, and the second component is the "stream network'' module, which propagates the flood in the main river and its subsidiaries. The basin flash flood generation model is a rainfall-runoff model that can integrate remotely sensed data. Surface hydraulics equations are solved with enough simplifying hypotheses to allow real time exploitation. The minimum data required by the model are: (i) the Digital Elevation Model, used to calculate slopes that generate runoff, it can be issued from satellite imagery (SPOT) or from French Geographical Institute (IGN); (ii) the rainfall data from meteorological radar, observed or anticipated by the French Meteorological Service (Météo France); and (iii) the spatially distributed soil and other surface properties viewed from space (land cover map from SPOT or LANDSAT, main rivers, ...). The stream flood propagation model simulates flood propagation in main rivers by solving 1-D Saint Venant equations. The data required for this part of the model are the river morphology, topography and roughness. The MARINE model has already been used previously for real time flash floods forecasting in the frame of the PACTES project on "forecasting and anticipation of floods with spatial techniques'' (funded by the CNES and the French Ministry of Research) concerning the catastrophic 1999 flash flood that occurred in the South of France. The main advantages of MARINE are its ability to run on insufficiently gauged basins (with the help of satellite information) and to run in an operational mode for real-time flood forecasting.
Effect of unsteady wind on drifting snow: first investigations
Authors: Michaux J.-L. , Naaim-Bouvet F. , Naaim M. , Lehning M. , Guyomarc’h G. 
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Wind is not always a steady flow. It can oscillate, producing blasts. However, most of the current numerical models of drifting snow are constrained by one major assumption: forcing winds are steady and uniform. Moreover, very few studies have been done to verify this hypothesis, because of the lack of available instrumentation and measurement difficulties. Therefore, too little is known about the possible role of wind gust in drifting snow. In order to better understand the effect of unsteady winds, we have performed both experiments at the climatic wind tunnel at the CSTB (Centre Scientifique et Technique des Bâtiments) in Nantes, France, and in situ experiments on our experimental high-altitude site, at the Lac Blanc Pass. These experiments were carried out collaboratively with Cemagref (France), Météo-France, and the IFENA (Switzerland). Through the wind tunnel experiments, we found that drifting snow is in a state of permanent disequilibrium in the presence of fluctuating airflows. In addition, the in situ experiments show that the largest drifting snow episodes appear during periods of roughly constant strong wind, whereas a short but strong blast does not produce significant drifting snow. Key words. Drifting snow, blowing snow, gust, blast, acoustic sensor
Calibration and application of the MN2D dynamics model to the avalanches of Las Leñas (Argentina)
Authors: Naaim M. , Furdada G. , Martínez H. 
Published: April 2010

Abstract. During the winters of 1999 and 2000 large avalanches occurred in the ski resort of Las Leñas (Los Andes, Mendoza, Argentina). On 8 September 1999 an avalanche of new, dry snow ran over a path with a 1000 m vertical drop. On 30 June and on 1 July 2000 five avalanches of similar vertical drop, which start with new snow, entrained very wet snow during their descent, and evolved into dense snow avalanches. To use the MN2D dynamics model correctly, calibration of model parameters is necessary. Also, no previous works with the use of dynamics models exist in South America. The events used to calibrate the model occurred during the winters of 1999 and 2000 and are a good sample of the kind of avalanches which can occur in this area of the Andes range. By considering the slope morphology and topography, the snow and meteorological conditions and the results of the model simulations, it was estimated that these avalanches were not extreme events with a return period greater than one hundred years. This implies that, in natural conditions, bigger, extreme avalanches could happen. In this work, the MN2D dynamics model is calibrated with two different avalanches of the same magnitude: dry and wet. The importance of the topographic data in the simulation is evaluated. It is concluded that MN2D dynamics model can be used to simulate dry extreme avalanches in Argentinean Andes but not to simulate extreme wet avalanches, which are much more sensitive to the topography.
Simulating debris flows through a hexagonal cellular automata model: SCIDDICA S&lt;sub&gt;3–hex&lt;/sub&gt;
Authors: D’Ambrosio D. , Di Gregorio S. , Iovine G. 
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Cellular Automata (CA) represent a formal frame for dynamical systems, which evolve on the base of local interactions. Some types of landslide, such as debris flows, match well this requirement. The latest hexagonal release (S3–hex) of the deterministic model SCIDDICA, specifically developed for simulating debris flows, is described. For CA simulation purposes, landslides can be viewed as a dynamical system, subdivided into elementary parts, whose state evolves exclusively as a consequence of local interactions within a spatial and temporal discretum. Space is the world of the CA, here constituted by hexagonal cells. The attributes of each cell ("substates") describe physical characteristics. For computational reasons, the natural phenomenon is "decomposed" into a number of elementary processes, whose proper composition makes up the "transition function" of the CA. By simultaneously applying this function to all the cells, the evolution of the phenomenon can be simulated in terms of modifications of the substates. SCIDDICA S3–hex exhibits a great flexibility in modelling debris flows. With respect to the previous releases of the model, the mechanism of progressive erosion of the soil cover has been added to the transition function. Considered substates are: altitude; thickness and energy of landslide debris; depth of erodable soil cover; debris outflows. Considered elementary processes are: mobilisation triggering and effect (T1), debris outflows (I1), update of landslide debris thickness and energy (I2), and energy loss (T2). Simulations of real debris flows, occurred in Campania (Southern Italy) in May 1998 (Sarno) and December 1999 (San Martino V.C. and Cervinara), have been performed for model calibration purposes; some examples of analysis are briefly described. Possible applications of the method are: risk mapping, also based on a statistical approach; evaluating the effects of mitigation actions (e.g. stream deviations, topographic alterations, channelling, embankments, bridges, etc.) on flow development.
Social and economic factors of the natural risk increasing: estimation of the Russian regions
Authors: Petrova E. 
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This study is an attempt to assess quantitatively social and economic factors that determine vulnerability of Russian regions to natural risk, to trace the space differences of the considered factors, and to group the regions by their similarity. In order to indicate the regional differences in social and economic development, equipment condition, dangerous substances accumulation, and social trouble four the most suitable parameters were estimated, including the per capita production of Gross Regional Product (GRP), capital consumption, volume of total toxic waste, and crime rate. Increase of the first parameter causes vulnerability reducing, the increase of the last three causes its increasing. Using multidimensional cluster analysis five types of regions were found for Russia according to similarity of the considered parameters. These types are characterized with higher value of a single (rarely two) chosen parameter, which seems to be sufficient enough to affect natural risks increasing in these regions in near future. Only few regions belonging to the fifth type proved to have rather high value of GRP and relatively low values of the other parameters. The negative correlation was found between a number of natural disasters (ND) and the per capita GRP in case when some parameters reached anomalously high value. The distinctions between regions by prevailing different parameters, which result in natural risk increasing, help risk management to find directions where to focus on.
Local models for rainstorm-induced hazard analysis on Mediterranean river-torrential geomorphological systems
Authors: Diodato N. 
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Damaging hydrogeomorphological events are defined as one or more simultaneous phenomena (e.g. accelerated erosions, landslides, flash floods and river floods), occurring in a spatially and temporal random way and triggered by rainfall with different intensity and extent. The storm rainfall values are highly dependent on weather condition and relief. However, the impact of rainstorms in Mediterranean mountain environments depend mainly on climatic fluctuations in the short and long term, especially in rainfall quantity. An algorithm for the characterisation of this impact, called Rainfall Hazard Index (RHI), is developed with a less expensive methodology. In RHI modelling, we assume that the river-torrential system has adapted to the natural hydrological regime, and a sudden fluctuation in this regime, especially those exceeding thresholds for an acceptable range of flexibility, may have disastrous consequences for the mountain environment. RHI integrate two rainfall variables based upon storm depth current and historical data, both of a fixed duration, and a one-dimensionless parameter representative of the degree ecosystem flexibility. The approach was applied to a test site in the Benevento river-torrential landscape, Campania (Southern Italy). So, a database including data from 27 events which have occurred during an 77-year period (1926-2002) was compared with Benevento-station RHI(24h), for a qualitative validation. Trends in RHIx for annual maximum storms of duration 1, 3 and 24h were also examined. Little change is observed at the 3- and 24-h duration of a storm, but a significant increase results in hazard of a short and intense storm (RHIx(1h)), in agreement with a reduction in return period for extreme rainfall events.
Estimation of the seismic hazard parameters for various sites in Greece using a probabilistic approach
Authors: Banitsiotou I. D. , Tsapanos T. M. , Margaris V. N. , Hatzidimitriou P. M. 
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The probabilistic approach that was recently introduced by Kijko and Graham (1998,1999) was applied for the estimation of seismic hazard for various sites in Greece in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV). These sites represent geographically cities of Greece among which are the capital of Greece and some others with high, intermediate and low seismicity. The approach allows the use of earthquake catalogues with incomplete reported historical and complete instrumental data, the consideration of different magnitude thresholds, and the incorporation of magnitude uncertainties. One of the advantages of the method is that it does not require any determination of seismic zones. The estimated values of PGA for return periods of 476 years were grouped in 4 categories, the same ones used in the seismic hazard map for the New Seismic Code of Greece. Comparison results were quite interesting and very encouraging concerning the reliability of this probabilistic approach.
The 8 and 9 September 2002 flash flood event in France: a model intercomparison
Authors: Anquetin S. , Yates E. , Ducrocq V. , Samouillan S. , Chancibault K. , Davolio S. , Accadia C. , Casaioli M. , Mariani S. , Ficca G. , Gozzini B. , Pasi F. , Pasqui M. , Garcia A. , Martorell M. , Romero R. , Chessa P. 
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Within the framework of the European Interreg IIIb Medocc program, the HYDROPTIMET project aims at the optimization of the hydrometeorological forecasting tools in the context of intense precipitation within complex topography. Therefore, some meteorological forecast models and hydrological models were tested on four Mediterranean flash-flood events. One of them occured in France where the South-eastern ridge of the French "Massif Central", the Gard region, experienced a devastating flood on 8 and 9 September 2002. 24 people were killed during this event and the economic damage was estimated at 1.2 billion euros. To built the next generation of the hydrometeorological forecasting chain that will be able to capture such localized and fast events and the resulting discharges, the forecasted rain fields might be improved to be relevant for hydrological purposes. In such context, this paper presents the results of the evaluation methodology proposed by Yates et al. (2005) that highlights the relevant hydrological scales of a simulated rain field. Simulated rain fields of 7 meteorological model runs concerning with the French event are therefore evaluated for different accumulation times. The dynamics of these models are either based on non-hydrostatic or hydrostatic equation systems. Moreover, these models were run under different configurations (resolution, initial conditions). The classical score analysis and the areal evaluation of the simulated rain fields are then performed in order to put forward the main simulation characteristics that improve the quantitative precipitation forecast. The conclusions draw some recommendations on the value of the quantitative precipitation forecasts and way to use it for quantitative discharge forecasts within mountainous areas.
Modelling debris flows down general channels
Authors: Pudasaini S. P. , Wang Y. , Hutter K. 
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper is an extension of the single-phase cohesionless dry granular avalanche model over curved and twisted channels proposed by Pudasaini and Hutter (2003). It is a generalisation of the Savage and Hutter (1989, 1991) equations based on simple channel topography to a two-phase fluid-solid mixture of debris material. Important terms emerging from the correct treatment of the kinematic and dynamic boundary condition, and the variable basal topography are systematically taken into account. For vanishing fluid contribution and torsion-free channel topography our new model equations exactly degenerate to the previous Savage-Hutter model equations while such a degeneration was not possible by the Iverson and Denlinger (2001) model, which, in fact, also aimed to extend the Savage and Hutter model. The model equations of this paper have been rigorously derived; they include the effects of the curvature and torsion of the topography, generally for arbitrarily curved and twisted channels of variable channel width. The equations are put into a standard conservative form of partial differential equations. From these one can easily infer the importance and influence of the pore-fluid-pressure distribution in debris flow dynamics. The solid-phase is modelled by applying a Coulomb dry friction law whereas the fluid phase is assumed to be an incompressible Newtonian fluid. Input parameters of the equations are the internal and bed friction angles of the solid particles, the viscosity and volume fraction of the fluid, the total mixture density and the pore pressure distribution of the fluid at the bed. Given the bed topography and initial geometry and the initial velocity profile of the debris mixture, the model equations are able to describe the dynamics of the depth profile and bed parallel depth-averaged velocity distribution from the initial position to the final deposit. A shock capturing, total variation diminishing numerical scheme is implemented to solve the highly non-linear equations. Simulation results present the combined effects of curvature, torsion and pore pressure on the dynamics of the flow over a general basal topography. These simulation results reveal new physical insight of debris flows over such non-trivial topography. Model equations are applied to laboratory avalanche and debris-flow-flume tests. Very good agreement between the theory and experiments is established.
Dynamics and conceptual model of the Rossena castle landslide (Northern Apennines, Italy)
Authors: Chelli A. , Mandrone G. , Ruffini A. , Truffelli G. 
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In the Northern Apennines there are many historical villages and castles, which are of great value and represent a cultural heritage of great importance. Their presence within a territory greatly affected by landslide hazards creates, in many circumstances, the need to solve problems of land management and to act for the preservation of historical monuments. This paper describe an interesting landslide, failed during the night of 28 February 2004, that involved the village of Rossena: the failure damaged the village (Fig. 1), the road and the fields down to the stream but, fortunately, the castle just upslope the village was not involved at all. The 10th century massive castle of Rossena stands on the top of a cliff at about 500 m a.s.l., on the border between the provinces of Parma and Reggio Emilia, and it is surrounded by a small ancient village. The castle of Rossena is the best preserved stronghold of the Longobard times, enlarged and reinforced in the tenth century and partially rebuilt by Bonifacio, the father of Matilda of Canossa (the Vice-Queen of Italy and probably the most important woman in the Middle Ages) as a defensive structure guarding the Enza Valley. In addition, at Conossa, very close to Rossena, there was the meeting between Pope Gregory VII and the Emperor of Germany Henry IV, during the historical event known as "fight for the investitures". For these reasons, the area of Rossena is one of the most relevant from a historical point of view in the entire western part of the Emilia Romagna Region and it also has a high value as a geosite (Coratza et al., 2004).
The use of radar in hydrological modeling in the Czech Republic – case studies of flash floods
Authors: Šálek M. , Brezková L. , Novák P. 
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Flash flood induced by severe convection is the hydrometeorological phenomenon that is very difficult to forecast. However, the implementation of radar measurements, especially radar-based Quantitative Precipitation Estimate (QPE) and/or radar-based quantitative Precipitation Nowcast (QPN) can improve this situation. If the radar is able to capture the development of severe convection and can produce reasonably accurate QPE in short time intervals (e.g. 10 min), then it can be used also with hydrological model. A hydrological model named Hydrog was used for investigation of simulation and possible forecasts of two flash floods that took place in the Czech Republic in 2002 and 2003. The precipitation input consisted of mean-field-bias-adjusted or original radar 10-min estimates along with quantitative precipitation nowcasts up to 2 h based on COTREC method (extrapolation). Taking into account all the limited predictability of the severe convection development and the errors of the radar-based precipitation estimates, the aim of the simulations was to find out to what extend the hydrometeorological prediction system, specifically tuned for these events, was able to forecast a the flash floods. As assumed, the hydrometeorological simulations of the streamflow forecasts lagged behind the actual development but there is still some potential for successful warning, especially for areas where the flood hits lately.
Site investigation and modelling at &quot;La Maina&quot; landslide (Carnian Alps, Italy)
Authors: Marcato G. , Mantovani M. , Pasuto A. , Silvano S. , Tagliavini F. , Zabuski L. , Zannoni A. 
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The Sauris reservoir is a hydroelectric basin closed downstream by a 136 m high, double arc concrete dam. The dam is firmly anchored to a consistent rock (Dolomia dello Schlern), but the Lower Triassic clayey formations, cropping out especially in the lower part of the slopes, have made the whole catchment basin increasingly prone to landslides. In recent years, the "La Maina landslide" has opened up several joints over a surface of about 100 000 m2, displacing about 1 500 000 m3 of material. Particular attention is now being given to the evolution of the instability area, as the reservoir is located at the foot of the landslide. Under the commission of the Regional Authority for Civil Protection a numerical modelling simulation in a pseudo-time condition of the slope was developed, in order to understand the risk for transport infrastructures, for some houses and for the reservoir and to take urgent mesaures to stabilize the slope. A monitoring system consisting of four inclinometers, three wire extensometers and ten GPS bench-mark pillars was immediately set up to check on surface and deep displacements. The data collected and the geological and geomorphological evidences was used to carry out a numerical simulation. The reliability of the results was checked by comparing the model with the morphological evidence of the movement. The mitigation measures were designed and realised following the indications provided by the model.