Prevalence and associated risk factors of peste des petits ruminants in selected districts of the northern border region of Pakistan
Authors: Munibullah  , Li Yanmin , Munib Kainat , Zhang Zhixiong , Zhang Zhidong 
Published: May 2024

Abstract
Background
Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) is a world organization for animal health (WOAH) notifiable and economically important transboundary, highly communicable viral disease of small ruminants. PPR virus (PPRV) belongs to the genus Morbillivirus of the family Paramyxoviridae.

Aim
The present cross-sectional epidemiological investigation was accomplished to estimate the apparent prevalence and identify the risk factors linked with peste des petits ruminants (PPR) in the previously neglected northern border regions of Pakistan.

Method
A total of 1300 samples (serum = 328; swabs = 972) from 150 flocks/herds were compiled from sheep (n = 324), goats (n = 328), cattle (n = 324), and buffaloes (n = 324) during 2020–2021 and tested using ELISA for detection of viral antibody in sera or antigen in swabs.

Results
An overall apparent prevalence of 38.7% (504 samples) and an estimated true prevalence (calculated by the Rogan and Gladen estimator) of 41.0% (95% CI, 38.0–44 were recorded in the target regions. The highest apparent prevalence of 53.4% (85 samples) and the true prevalence of 57.0%, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) were documented in the Gilgit district and the lowest apparent prevalence of 53 (25.1%) and the true prevalence of 26.0%, 95% Confidence Interval (CI), 19.0–33.0) was reported in the Swat district. A questionnaire was designed to collect data about associated risk factors that were put into a univariable logistic regression to decrease the non-essential assumed risk dynamics with a P-value of 0.25. ArcGIS, 10.8.1 was used to design hotspot maps and MedCalc’s online statistical software was used to calculate Odds Ratio (OR). Some of the risk factors significantly different (P < 0.05) in the multivariable logistic regression were flock/herd size, farming methods, nomadic animal movement, and outbreaks of PPR. The odds of large-sized flocks/herds were 1.7 (OR = 1.79; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 0.034–91.80%) times more likely to be positive than small-sized. The odds of transhumance and nomadic systems were 1.1 (OR = 1.15; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 0.022–58.64%) and 1.0 (OR = 1.02; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 0.020–51.97%) times more associated to be positive than sedentary and mixed farming systems, respectively. The odds of nomadic animal movement in the area was 0.7 (OR = 0.57; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 0.014–38.06%) times more associated to be positive than in areas where no nomadic movement was observed. In addition, the odds of an outbreak of PPR in the area were 1.0 (OR = 1.00; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 0.018–46.73%) times more associated to be positive than in areas where no outbreak of PPR was observed.

Conclusions
It was concluded that many northern regions considered endemic for PPR, large and small ruminants are kept and reared together making numerous chances for virus transmission dynamic, so a big threats of disease spread exist in the region. The results of the present study would contribute to the global goal of controlling and eradicating PPR by 2030.