bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
The Position of the Midlatitude Storm Track and Eddy-Driven Westerlies in Aquaplanet AGCMs
Authors: Lu Jian , Chen Gang , Frierson Dargan M. W. 
Published: September 2010

Abstract
The sensitivity of the midlatitude storm track and eddy-driven wind to the sea surface temperature (SST) boundary forcing is studied over a wide range of perturbations using both simple and comprehensive general circulation models over aquaplanet lower boundary conditions. Under the single-jet circulation regime similar to the conditions of the present climate in the Northern Hemisphere winter or the Southern Hemisphere summer, the eddy-driven jet shifts monotonically poleward with both the global mean and the equator-to-pole gradient of the SST. The eddy-driven jet can have a reverse relationship to the gradient if it is well separated from the subtropical jet and Hadley cell boundary in a double-jet circulation regime.
A simple scaling is put forward to interpret the simulated sensitivity of the storm-track/eddy-driven westerly wind position within the single-jet regime in both models. The rationale for the scaling is based on the notion that the wave activity flux can propagate horizontally away from the source region, resulting in a broader distribution of eddy potential vorticity (PV) flux in the upper troposphere than that of the flux in the opposite direction in the lower troposphere. As a consequence, the position of the maximum of the eddy-driven westerlies tends to be controlled by the profile of the relatively sharp-peaked low-level PV flux, which is dominated by the eddy heat flux component of the Eliassen–Palm (EP) flux. Thus, the position of the eddy-driven surface westerlies may be inferred from the vertical EP flux coming out of the lower troposphere. The vertical EP flux can be parameterized by a measure of baroclinicity, whose latitudinal variations show a linear relationship with the meridional displacement of the eddy-driven westerlies and the storm track. This relationship still holds well within the single-jet regime, even when only the variation of static stability is taken into consideration in estimating the baroclinicity (the temperature gradient component of which is fixed). To the extent that the static stability is deterministically constrained by and hence can be predicted from the given SST conditions through a moist scaling for the midlatitude stratification, one may, given SST perturbations, predict which way the storm track and eddy-driven wind should shift with respect to a chosen reference climate state. The resultant anomaly-wise scaling turns out to be valid for both the idealized and comprehensive models, regardless of the details in the model physics.
By corollary, it can be argued that the poleward shift of storm track found in the global warming simulations by fully coupled climate models may be attributed, at least partially, to the increase in the subtropical and midlatitude static stability with global warming.
Response of Tropical Precipitation to Global Warming
Authors: Romps David M. 
Published: September 2010

Abstract
Using high-resolution cloud-resolving simulations with different CO2 concentrations, local precipitation fluxes are found to obey Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) scaling. Previous studies of the effect of CO2 concentration on precipitation extremes have used general circulation models, which are poor platforms for studying tropical convection because convection is parameterized. In idealized cloud-resolving simulations, it is possible to identify not only the changes in local precipitation fluxes, but also the factors responsible for those changes.
There are many properties of convection that can change as the atmosphere warms, each of which could produce deviations from CC scaling. These properties include the effective water-vapor gradient, cloud pressure depth, and cloud velocity. A simple theory is developed that predicts the changes in these properties consistent with CC scaling. Convection in the cloud-resolving simulations is found to change as predicted by this theory, leading to an ∼20% increase in local precipitation fluxes when the CO2 concentration is doubled. Overall, an increase in CO2 leads to more vigorous convection, composed of clouds that are wider, taller, and faster.
Explosive Cyclogenesis: A Global Climatology Comparing Multiple Reanalyses
Authors: Allen John T. , Pezza Alexandre B. , Black Mitchell T. 
Published: September 2010

Abstract
A global climatology for rapid cyclone intensification has been produced from the second NCEP reanalysis (NCEP2), the 25-yr Japanese Reanalysis (JRA-25), and the ECMWF reanalyses over the period 1979–2008. An improved (combined) criterion for identifying explosive cyclones has been developed based on preexisting definitions, offering a more balanced, normalized climatological distribution. The combined definition was found to significantly alter the population of explosive cyclones, with a reduction in “artificial” systems, which are found to compose 20% of the population determined by earlier definitions. Seasonally, winter was found to be the dominant formative period in both hemispheres, with a lower degree of interseasonal variability in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Considered over the period 1979–2008, little change is observed in the frequency of systems outside of natural interannual variability in either hemisphere. Significant statistical differences have been found between reanalyses in the SH, while in contrast the Northern Hemisphere (NH) was characterized by strong positive correlations between reanalyses in almost all examined cases. Spatially, explosive cyclones are distributed into several distinct regions, with two regions in the northwest Pacific and the North Atlantic in the NH and three main regions in the SH. High-resolution and modern reanalysis data were also found to increase the climatology population of rapidly intensifying systems. This indicates that the reanalyses have apparently undergone increasing improvements in consistency over time, particularly in the SH.
A Multimodel Study of Parametric Uncertainty in Predictions of Climate Response to Rising Greenhouse Gas Concentrations
Authors: Sanderson Benjamin M. 
Published: September 2010

Abstract
One tool for studying uncertainties in simulations of future climate is to consider ensembles of general circulation models where parameterizations have been sampled within their physical range of plausibility. This study is about simulations from two such ensembles: a subset of the climateprediction.net ensemble using the Met Office Hadley Centre Atmosphere Model, version 3.0 and the new “CAMcube” ensemble using the Community Atmosphere Model, version 3.5. The study determines that the distribution of climate sensitivity in the two ensembles is very different: the climateprediction.net ensemble subset range is 1.7–9.9 K, while the CAMcube ensemble range is 2.2–3.2 K. On a regional level, however, both ensembles show a similarly diverse range in their mean climatology. Model radiative flux changes suggest that the major difference between the ranges of climate sensitivity in the two ensembles lies in their clear-sky longwave responses. Large clear-sky feedbacks present only in the climateprediction.net ensemble are found to be proportional to significant biases in upper-tropospheric water vapor concentrations, which are not observed in the CAMcube ensemble. Both ensembles have a similar range of shortwave cloud feedback, making it unlikely that they are causing the larger climate sensitivities in climateprediction.net. In both cases, increased negative shortwave cloud feedbacks at high latitudes are generally compensated by increased positive feedbacks at lower latitudes.
Mechanisms of Northward-Propagating Intraseasonal Oscillation—A Comparison between the Indian Ocean and the Western North Pacific
Authors: Chou Chia , Hsueh Yu-Chien 
Published: September 2010

Abstract
Mechanisms of northward-propagating intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) over the Indian Ocean (IO) and the western North Pacific (WNP) are examined for the possibility of their existence in observations. They include the following: 1) the vorticity advection effect, which is associated with the advection of anomalous baroclinic vorticity by mean baroclinic meridional winds; 2) the vertical wind shear effect, which is the vertical advection associated with the meridional gradient of baroclinic divergence and mean easterly vertical wind shear; 3) the moisture advection effect induced by mean flow; and 4) the air–sea interaction via surface latent heat flux. Because of differences in mean state, the influence of each mechanism on the northward-propagating ISOs is different between the IO and the WNP. The vorticity advection effect is consistently found over both the IO and the WNP, while the air–sea interaction has different impacts on the northward-propagating ISOs over the IO and the WNP. The vertical wind shear effect and the moisture advection effect are relatively important over the IO but not over the WNP. Processes to determine changes in SST are also different between the IO and the WNP. Over the IO, SST is mainly associated with surface solar radiation. Wind-stirring effects, surface latent heat flux, and subsurface water entrainment are secondary. Over the WNP, wind-stirring effects become important, but surface solar radiation is secondary.
Long-Term Water Prospects in the Western United States*
Authors: Broecker Wallace 
Published: September 2010

Abstract
Based on the changes in the size of closed basin lakes, the author shows that water availability has undergone large fluctuations in response to conditions experienced during full glacial time and during the period of deglaciation. Based on these observations, the author concludes that as the planet warms in response to the buildup of fossil fuel CO2, the distribution of available water will shift. The resulting changes will be particularly noticeable in the world’s drylands. In this paper, the author attempts to invert the response to cold glacial conditions and to interhemispheric temperature differences, which occurred during the interval of deglaciation, to predict how the hydrologic conditions in the western United States might evolve over the next half-century. The tentative conclusion on both scores is that this region will likely undergo a progressive drying. However, because both the glacial and deglacial hydrologic shifts were certainly influenced by the presence of excess ice, as well as by colder temperatures, the author admits that the validity of this inversion is subject to challenge.
Estimating Spatial Sampling Errors in Coarse-Scale Soil Moisture Estimates Derived from Point-Scale Observations
Authors: Miralles Diego G. , Crow Wade T. , Cosh Michael H. 
Published: September 2010

Abstract
The validation of satellite surface soil moisture products requires comparisons between point-scale ground observations and footprint-scale (&gt;100 km2) retrievals. In regions containing a limited number of measurement sites per footprint, some of the observed difference between the retrievals and ground observations is attributable to spatial sampling error and not the intrinsic error of the satellite retrievals themselves. Here, a triple collocation (TC) approach is applied to footprint-scale soil moisture products acquired from passive microwave remote sensing, land surface modeling, and a single ground-based station with the goal of the estimating (and correcting for) spatial sampling error in footprint-scale soil moisture estimates derived from the ground station. Using these three soil moisture products, the TC approach is shown to estimate point-to-footprint soil moisture sampling errors to within 0.0059 m3 m−3 and enhance the ability to validate satellite footprint-scale soil moisture products using existing low-density ground networks.
Wave Breaking in Directional Fields
Authors: Babanin A. V. , Waseda T. , Kinoshita T. , Toffoli A. 
Published: September 2010

Abstract
Wave breaking is observed in a laboratory experiment with waves of realistic average steepness and directional spread. It is shown that a modulational-instability mechanism is active in such circumstances and can lead to the breaking.
Experiments were conducted in the directional wave tank of the University of Tokyo, and the mechanically generated wave fields consisted of a primary wave with sidebands in the frequency domain, with continuous directional distribution in the angular domain. Initial steepness of the primary wave and sidebands, as well as the width of directional distributions varied in a broad range to determine the combination of steepness/directional-spread properties that separates modulational-instability breaking from the linear-focusing breaking.
Coastal Aerosol Profiling with a Camera Lidar and Nephelometer
Authors: Sharma N. C. Parikh , Barnes John E. , Kaplan Trevor B. , Clarke Antony D. 
Published: September 2010

Abstract
A bistatic lidar configuration of a wide-angle camera (100°) and vertically pointed laser (532 nm) was used to profile aerosols at a coastal site. Aerosol profiles were measured on two evenings from the surface through the boundary layer. The site, on the eastern tip of the Big Island of Hawaii, is influenced by both marine boundary layer aerosols and breaking waves. Two nephelometers, located at 7 and 25 m above sea level, were compared directly with the 0.5-m-altitude resolution of the camera lidar (clidar). At 7 m, changes in aerosol were tracked quite well by the clidar. At 25 m the aerosol was fairly constant and a useful comparison could only be made with averaged values. The clidar results showed a steep gradient (decreasing with altitude) in the aerosol extinction from 7 to about 35 m. The gradient continued to 200 m at a lower rate. This demonstrated the use of the clidar in characterizing the environment for the in situ aerosol sampling. Both a measured and a NASA Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET)-derived aerosol phase function, representing similar marine conditions but from different locations, were used to convert the single-angle clidar scatter to extinction. The measured function gave the best fit to the near-surface nephelometer data. The extinction/backscatter ratio, derived by comparing the NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol optical depth to the integrated clidar profile, was higher than the long-term average value from the AERONET aerosol phase function.
What Constrains Spread Growth in Forecasts Initialized from Ensemble Kalman Filters?
Authors: Hamill Thomas M. , Whitaker Jeffrey S. 
Published: September 2010

Abstract
The spread of an ensemble of weather predictions initialized from an ensemble Kalman filter may grow slowly relative to other methods for initializing ensemble predictions, degrading its skill. Several possible causes of the slow spread growth were evaluated in perfect- and imperfect-model experiments with a two-layer primitive equation spectral model of the atmosphere. The causes examined were the covariance localization, the additive noise used to stabilize the assimilation method and parameterize the system error, and the model error itself. In these experiments, the flow-independent additive noise was the biggest factor in constraining spread growth. Preevolving additive noise perturbations were tested as a way to make the additive noise more flow dependent. This modestly improved the data assimilation and ensemble predictions, both in the two-layer model results and in a brief test of the assimilation of real observations into a global multilevel spectral primitive equation model. More generally, these results suggest that methods for treating model error in ensemble Kalman filters that greatly reduce the flow dependency of the background-error covariances may increase the filter analysis error and decrease the rate of forecast spread growth.
Development of a Coupled Groundwater–Atmosphere Model
Authors: Maxwell Reed M. , Lundquist Julie K. , Mirocha Jeffrey D. , Smith Steven G. , Woodward Carol S. , Tompson Andrew F. B. 
Published: September 2010

Abstract
Complete models of the hydrologic cycle have gained recent attention as research has shown interdependence between the coupled land and energy balance of the subsurface, land surface, and lower atmosphere. PF.WRF is a new model that is a combination of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model and a parallel hydrology model (ParFlow) that fully integrates three-dimensional, variably saturated subsurface flow with overland flow. These models are coupled in an explicit, operator-splitting manner via the Noah land surface model (LSM). Here, the coupled model formulation and equations are presented and a balance of water between the subsurface, land surface, and atmosphere is verified. The improvement in important physical processes afforded by the coupled model using a number of semi-idealized simulations over the Little Washita watershed in the southern Great Plains is demonstrated. These simulations are initialized with a set of offline spinups to achieve a balanced state of initial conditions. To quantify the significance of subsurface physics, compared with other physical processes calculated in WRF, these simulations are carried out with two different surface spinups and three different microphysics parameterizations in WRF. These simulations illustrate enhancements to coupled model physics for two applications: water resources and wind-energy forecasting. For the water resources example, it is demonstrated how PF.WRF simulates explicit rainfall and water storage within the basin and runoff. Then the hydrographs predicted by different microphysics schemes within WRF are compared. Because soil moisture is expected to impact boundary layer winds, the applicability of the model to wind-energy applications is demonstrated by using PF.WRF and WRF simulations to provide estimates of wind and wind shear that are useful indicators of wind-power output.
Three-Dimensional Characteristics of Stratospheric Mountain Waves during T-REX
Authors: Doyle James D. , Jiang Qingfang , Smith Ronald B. , Grubišić Vanda 
Published: September 2010

Abstract
Measurements from the National Science Foundation/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF/NCAR) Gulfstream V (G-V) obtained during the recent Terrain-Induced Rotor Experiment (T-REX) indicate marked differences in the character of the wave response between repeated flight tracks across the Sierra Nevada, which were separated by a distance of approximately 50 km. Observations from several of the G-V research flights indicate that the vertical velocities in the primary wave exhibited variations up to a factor of 2 between the southern and northern portions of the racetrack flight segments in the lower stratosphere, with the largest amplitude waves most often occurring over the southern flight leg, which has a terrain maximum that is 800 m lower than the northern leg. Multiple racetracks at 11.7- and 13.1-km altitudes indicate that these differences were repeatable, which is suggestive that the deviations were likely due to vertically propagating mountain waves that varied systematically in amplitude rather than associated with transients. The cross-mountain horizontal velocity perturbations are also a maximum above the southern portion of the Sierra Nevada ridge.
Real data and idealized nonhydrostatic numerical model simulations are used to test the hypothesis that the observed variability in the wave amplitude and characteristics in the along-barrier direction is a consequence of blocking by the three-dimensional Sierra Nevada and the Coriolis effect. The numerical simulation results suggest that wave launching is sensitive to the overall three-dimensional characteristics of the Sierra Nevada barrier, which has an important impact on the wave amplitude and characteristics in the lower stratosphere. Real-time high-resolution Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) forecasts successfully capture the along-barrier variations in the wave amplitude (using vertical velocity as a proxy) as well as skillfully distinguishing between large- and small-amplitude stratospheric wave events during T-REX.
Creating French Settlements Overseas: Pronatalism and Colonial Medicine in Madagascar
Authors: Andersen Margaret Cook 
Published: September 2010

This article explores the reasons that pronatalists in the Third Republic aligned the resolution of the depopulation crisis with the fate of settler colonialism. Convinced that the French population grew more quickly when far away from the metropole, pronatalists presented colonial emigration and settlement as means by which to strengthen the French race. The demographic importance that pronatalists attached to imperialism also led them to study colonial initiatives in population growth, most notably those of Governor-General Joseph-Simon Gallieni in Madagascar. Gallieni's belief that a large indigenous labor force was essential to preparing the colony for more extensive French settlement led him to introduce a series of reforms intended to increase the colony's Merina population. Though Gallieni's reforms reflected racial and gender assumptions specific to Madagascar, pronatalists in France considered them applicable to their own efforts to address the gendered causes of French racial decline.
Cet article examine la raison pour laquelle les natalistes soutenaient le peuplement colonial pendant la Troisième République. Croyant que la population française avait une natalité plus forte aux colonies qu'en France, les natalistes affirmaient que l'émigration coloniale pouvait répondre aux causes de la dépopulation et rendre plus forte la race française. Convaincus de l'importance démographique de l'empire colonial, les natalistes étudiaient les réformes natalistes introduites à Madagascar par le gouverneur-général Joseph Gallieni. Gallieni a conclu que le peuplement à Madagascar ne pouvait pas se développer sans l'existence d'une grande main-d'œuvre indigène. Pour cette raison, il a introduit plusieurs réformes pour favoriser l'accroissement de la population indigène de la colonie. Bien que ces réformes aient évoqué les suppositions basées sur les idées de race et du genre propres à Madagascar, les natalistes en France croyaient que de telles réformes aideraient leurs propres efforts tendant à rendre plus forte la race française.