bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
The Economic Value of Predicting Stock Index Returns and Volatility
Authors: Marquering Wessel , Verbeek Marno 
Published: April 2009

AbstractIn this paper, we analyze the economic value of predicting stock index returns as well as volatility. On the basis of simple linear models, estimated recursively, we produce out-of-sample forecasts for the return on the S&P 500 index and its volatility. Using monthly data, we examine the economic value of a number of alternative trading strategies over the period 1970–2001. It appears easier to forecast returns at times when volatility is high. For a mean-variance investor, this predictability is economically profitable, even if short sales are not allowed and transaction costs are quite large. The economic value of trading strategies that employ market timing in returns and volatility exceeds that of strategies that only employ timing in returns. Most of the profitability of the dynamic strategies, however, is located in the first half of our sample period.
Executive Loans
Authors: Kahle Kathleen M. , Shastri Kuldeep 
Published: April 2009

AbstractThis paper analyzes the characteristics and impact of loans made to executives for stock purchase, option exercise, and relocation. We find that loans made to assist executives in purchasing stock or exercising options are larger and have higher interest rates than relocation loans. All types of loans, however, are issued at below-market interest rates, on average. We also find that while stock purchase loans are given to managers with low existing ownership, option exercise loans are given to managers with high existing ownership and high cash compensation. Finally, our results indicate that executive stock ownership increases following stock purchase and option exercise loans. For managers as a whole, a loan that enables a manager to buy 100 shares of stock results in only an eight share increase in ownership. However, the relation between ownership changes and stock purchase loans is much stronger for low ownership managers.
Predictive Regressions: A Reduced-Bias Estimation Method
Authors: Amihud Yakov , Hurvich Clifford M. 
Published: April 2009

AbstractStandard predictive regressions produce biased coefficient estimates in small samples when the regressors are Gaussian first-order autoregressive with errors that are correlated with the error series of the dependent variable. See Stambaugh (1999) for the single regressor model. This paper proposes a direct and convenient method to obtain reduced-bias estimators for single and multiple regressor models by employing an augmented regression, adding a proxy for the errors in the autoregressive model. We derive bias expressions for both the ordinary least-squares and our reduced-bias estimated coefficients. For the standard errors of the estimated predictive coefficients, we develop a heuristic estimator that performs well in simulations, for both the single predictor model and an important specification of the multiple predictor model. The effectiveness of our method is demonstrated by simulations and empirical estimates of common predictive models in finance. Our empirical results show that some of the predictive variables that were significant under ordinary least squares become insignificant under our estimation procedure.
Initial Public Offerings of State-Owned Enterprises: An International Study of Policy Risk
Authors: Lam Swee-Sum , Tan Ruth Seow-Kuan , Wee Glenn Tsao-Min 
Published: April 2009

AbstractPolicy risk, rather than information asymmetry, explains the cross-sectional underpricing of privatized initial public offerings. The issuer governments of high policy risk issues tend to retain a large equity stake and underprice more with underpricing increasing in retained equity. While the issuer government's retained equity is an observable signal for policy risk, we find that the quality of a country's bureaucratic machinery is a more intuitive and practical measure of policy risk. Policy risk also explains the absence of a systematic relation between the initial returns on privatized and private initial public offerings.
Multivariate Tests for Stochastic Dominance Efficiency of a Given Portfolio
Authors: Post Thierry , Versijp Philippe 
Published: April 2009

AbstractWe develop empirical tests for stochastic dominance efficiency of a given investment portfolio relative to all possible portfolios formed from a given set of assets. Our tests use multivariate statistics, which result in superior statistical power properties compared to existing stochastic dominance efficiency tests and increase the comparability with existing mean-variance efficiency tests. Using our tests, we demonstrate that the mean-variance inefficiency of the CRSP all-share index relative to beta-sorted portfolios can be explained by tail risk not captured by variance.
Bayesian Analysis of Linear Factor Models with Latent Factors, Multivariate Stochastic Volatility, and APT Pricing Restrictions
Authors: Nardari Federico , Scruggs John T. 
Published: April 2009

AbstractWe analyze a new class of linear factor models in which the factors are latent and the covariance matrix of excess returns follows a multivariate stochastic volatility process. We evaluate cross-sectional restrictions suggested by the arbitrage pricing theory (APT), compare competing stochastic volatility specifications for the covariance matrix, and test for the number of factors. We also examine whether return predictability can be attributed to time-varying factor risk premia. Analysis of these models is feasible due to recent advances in Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We find that three latent factors with multivariate stochastic volatility best explain excess returns for a sample of 10 size decile portfolios. The data strongly favor models constrained by APT pricing restrictions over otherwise identical unconstrained models.
Analysts' Conflicts of Interest and Biases in Earnings Forecasts
Authors: Chan Louis K. C. , Karceski Jason , Lakonishok Josef 
Published: April 2009

AbstractAnalysts' earnings forecasts are influenced by their desire to win investment banking clients. We hypothesize that the equity bull market of the 1990s, along with the boom in investment banking business, exacerbated analysts' conflicts of interest and their incentives to strategically adjust forecasts to avoid earnings disappointments. We document shifts in the distribution of earnings surprises and related changes in the market's response to surprises and forecast revisions. The evidence for shifts is stronger for growth stocks, where conflicts of interest are more pronounced. However, shifts are less notable for analysts without ties to investment banking and in international markets.
Characterizing World Market Integration through Time
Authors: Carrieri Francesca , Errunza Vihang , Hogan Ked 
Published: April 2009

AbstractInternational asset pricing models suggest that barriers to portfolio flows and availability of market substitutes affect the degree and time variation of world market integration. We use GARCH-in-mean methodology to assess the evolution in market integration for eight emerging markets over the period 1977–2000. Our results suggest that while local risk is still a relevant factor in explaining time variation of emerging market returns, none of the countries appear to be completely segmented. We find that there are substantial crossmarket differences in the degree of integration. The evolution toward more integrated financial markets is apparent although at times we do observe reversals. In addition, we provide clear evidence on the impropriety of directly using correlations of market-wide index returns as a measure of market integration. Finally, financial market development and financial liberalization policies play important roles in integrating emerging markets.
Investment and Competition
Authors: Akdoğu Evrim , MacKay Peter 
Published: April 2009

AbstractThis paper examines how industry structure affects corporate investment patterns. Real options theory shows that deferring irreversible investment in the face of uncertainty is valuable. Theory also shows that the value of waiting to invest falls if investment opportunities are contestable. Consistent with these theories, we find that firms in monopolistic industries exhibit lower investment-q; sensitivity and are slower to invest than firms in competitive industries. However, we find that investment-q; sensitivity and investment speed are highest in oligopolistic industries, suggesting that the value of investing strategically can outweigh the value of waiting. Indeed, oligopolistic industries experience less entry and more exit than other industries.
Asset Pricing Models with Conditional Betas and Alphas: The Effects of Data Snooping and Spurious Regression
Authors: Ferson Wayne E. , Sarkissian Sergei , Simin Timothy 
Published: April 2009

AbstractThis paper studies the estimation of asset pricing model regressions with conditional alphas and betas, focusing on the joint effects of data snooping and spurious regression. We find that the regressions are reasonably well specified for conditional betas, even in settings where simple predictive regressions are severely biased. However, there are biases in estimates of the conditional alphas. When time-varying alphas are suppressed and only time-varying betas are considered, the betas become biased. Previous studies overstate the significance of time-varying alphas.
Corporate Governance, Shareholder Rights, and Shareholder Rights Plans: Poison, Placebo, or Prescription?
Authors: Caton Gary L. , Goh Jeremy 
Published: April 2009

AbstractWe examine the effect of poison pill adoptions on firm value, controlling for the adopting firm's preexisting corporate governance structure. We find that only companies with the most democratic governance structures, defined as those with the fewest preexisting protective governance provisions, experience significantly positive abnormal stock returns and significantly positive abnormal revisions in five-year earnings growth rate forecasts. Moreover, regression results indicate that abnormal returns and forecast revisions are significantly related to governance structure and not to board composition or subsequent merger activity.
Debt Capacity, Cost of Debt, and Corporate Insurance
Authors: Zou Hong , Adams Mike B. 
Published: April 2009

AbstractUsing a unique insurance dataset for a sample of Chinese publicly listed companies for the period 1997 through 2003, this study tests the simultaneous linkages between debt capacity, cost of debt, and corporate property insurance. Our results suggest that, on the one hand, a higher cost of debt appears to motivate the use of more property insurance, but high leverage alone does not lead to the purchase of more property insurance. The latter finding might reflect the unique institutional setting of China, for example, where there is a low chanceof legally enforced company liquidation. Also, there is evidence that leverage can interact with tangible assets intensity and exert a positive conjoint effect on the corporate purchase ofproperty insurance. On the other hand, we find evidence that supports that property insurance helps expand insuring firms' debt capacity and helps lower their borrowing costs. However, themoderate evidence on the cost reduction effect suggests that lowering the borrowing cost is likely to be a concern secondary to facilitating corporate borrowing and thereby expanding debt capacity in corporate property insurance decisions in China. Overall, we conclude that debt capacity, cost of debt, and corporate insurance appear to be simultaneously related.
Second-Order Stochastic Dominance, Reward-Risk Portfolio Selection, and the CAPM
Authors: De Giorgi Enrico , Post Thierry 
Published: April 2009

AbstractStarting from the reward-risk model for portfolio selection introduced in De Giorgi (2005), we derive the reward-risk Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) analogously to the classical mean-variance CAPM. In contrast to the mean-variance model, reward-risk portfolio selection arises from an axiomatic definition of reward and risk measures based on a few basic principles, including consistency with second-order stochastic dominance. With complete markets, we show that at any financial market equilibrium, reward-risk investors' optimal allocations are comonotonic and, therefore, our model reduces to a representative investor model. Moreover, the pricing kernel is an explicitly given, non-increasing function of the market portfolio return, reflecting the representative investor's risk attitude. Finally, an empirical application shows that the reward-risk CAPM captures the cross section of U.S. stock returns better than the mean-variance CAPM does.
Common Factors and Local Factors: Implications for Term Structures and Exchange Rates
Authors: Ahn Dong-Hyun 
Published: April 2009

AbstractThis paper studies a multi-factor, two-country term structure and exchange rate model when a diversification effect for an international bond portfolio is expected. It shows that the diversification gain calls upon certain restrictions on the process of the stochastic discount factor in a factor-structured economy. Existence of local factors is shown to be a necessary condition for the gains from investing in foreign bonds. Further, the exchange rate risk premia are shown to be a function of the differentials of the risk premia of the factors in bond returns. Empirical results reveal the tendency for investors to respond sensitively to rare shocks, which is shown to be a potential solution to the forward premium puzzle.
Changing Risk, Return, and Leverage: The 1997 Asian Financial Crisis
Authors: Maroney Neal , Naka Atsuyuki , Wansi Theresia 
Published: April 2009

AbstractThis paper explores risk and return relations in six Asian equity markets affected by the 1997 Asian financial crisis. After the start of the crisis, national equity betas increased and average returns fell substantially. Beta increases due to leverage linked to exchange rates. The increase in expected return needed to accompany this rise in beta is made possible through the creation of capital losses that lower average returns. We propose a new probability-based asset pricing model that captures leverage effects using valuation ratios. Results show the role of leverage in explaining the likelihood of the financial crises. Crosssectional evidence supports time-series findings.
Economic Sources of Gain in Stock Repurchases
Authors: Chan Konan , Ikenberry David , Lee Inmoo 
Published: April 2009

AbstractPrevious studies offer a mixed understanding of the economic role of stock repurchases. This paper investigates three key economic motivations—mispricing, disgorging free cash flow, and increasing leverage—by evaluating cross-sectional differences in both the initial market reaction and long-run performance. The initial reaction provides some support for the mispricing story. However, subsequent earnings-related information shocks suggest that the initial market reaction is incomplete and that long-run performance may be informative. The long-horizon return evidence is most consistent with the mispricing hypothesis and, to some degree, the free cash flow hypothesis. We find little support for the leverage hypothesis.
Optimum Centralized Portfolio Construction with Decentralized Portfolio Management
Authors: Elton Edwin J. , Gruber Martin J. 
Published: April 2009

AbstractMany financial institutions employ outside portfolio managers to manage part or all of their investable assets. It is well recognized that outside portfolio managers are unwilling to share security information with each other or with the centralized decision maker and this in general will lead to sub-optimal portfolios. In this paper, we derive an implementable set of rules under which a central decision maker can make optimal decisions without requiring decentralized decision makers to reveal estimates of security returns. Furthermore, we derive conditions under which these rules hold and when they do not hold.
Negotiation and the IPO Offer Price: A Comparison of Integer vs. Non-Integer IPOs
Authors: Bradley Daniel J. , Cooney John W. , Jordan Bradford D. , Singh Ajai K. 
Published: April 2009

AbstractWe investigate the pricing of 4,989 equity IPOs with offer dates between 1981 and 2000. Approximately three-fourths of these IPOs have integer offer prices. Average initial returns for IPOs with integer offer prices are significantly higher (24.5%) than those priced on the fraction of the dollar (8.1%). This result is robust through time and after conditioning for other effects known to influence initial returns. We hypothesize that integer vs. fractional dollar IPOs are the result of negotiations between the issuing firm and underwriter. Under this negotiation hypothesis, the frequency of integer pricing should be an increasing function of the offer price and the degree of uncertainty surrounding the value of the firm. Empirical evidence, supportive of the negotiation hypothesis, is presented.
Do Indirect Investment Barriers Contribute to Capital Market Segmentation?
Authors: Nishiotis George P. 
Published: April 2009

AbstractUsing a sample of emerging market closed-end funds, I find evidence that indirect investment barriers exert powerful effects on asset pricing differences across countries. I show that not only do indirect investment barriers contribute to international capital market segmentation, but also they can lead to segmentation even in the absence of strong capital inflow restrictions. This result is consistent with Bekaert and Harvey's (1995) conclusion that “other markets appear segmented even though foreigners have relatively free access to their capital markets” (p. 403). The empirical results of this paper provide a rational market segmentation explanation of both premiums and discounts in emerging market closed-end funds, and they are consistent with the deterrent effect of indirect barriers on equity flows to emerging markets found in the capital flow literature.
The Dynamics of Credit Spreads and Ratings Migrations
Authors: Farnsworth Heber , Li Tao 
Published: April 2009

AbstractThere is a large and growing literature on how to model the dynamics of the default-free term structure to fit the observed historical data. Much less is known about how best to model the dynamics of defaultable yield curves. This paper develops a class of defaultable term structure models that is tractable enough to be empirically implemented and flexible enough to capture some important behaviors of the credit spreads in the data. We compare two non-nested models within this class using a Bayesian estimation technique, which helps to solve the problem of latent state variables. The Bayesian approach also enables us to test the two non-nested models on the basis of the Bayes factor. The results strongly suggest that models with constant transition probabilities will not be able to fit the observed dynamics of inter-rating spreads.
Mutual Fund Attributes and Investor Behavior
Authors: Bollen Nicolas P. B. 
Published: April 2009

AbstractI study the dynamics of investor cash flows in socially responsible mutual funds. Consistent with anecdotal evidence of loyalty, the monthly volatility of investor cash flows is lower in socially responsible funds than in conventional funds. I find strong evidence that cash flows into socially responsible funds are more sensitive to lagged positive returns than cash flows into conventional funds, and weaker evidence that cash outflows from socially responsible funds are less sensitive to lagged negative returns. These results indicate that investors derive utility from the socially responsible attribute, especially when returns are positive.
Board Composition and Corrective Action: Evidence from Corporate Responses to Bad Acquisition Bids
Authors: Paul Donna L. 
Published: April 2009

AbstractThis study investigates the role of corporate boards following large declines in share value surrounding acquisition announcements. The results indicate that firms with independent boards are less likely to complete these value-decreasing bids, suggesting that boards influence corporate responses to information in stock prices. Board independence is also associated with unusually high frequencies of asset restructuring for bids that are completed, suggesting that independent boards promote restructuring in mergers the market believes are difficult to integrate. These results complement existing evidence on the board's exante role in averting bad outcomes by showing that independent boards intervene following value-decreasing events.
Liquidity, Investment Style, and the Relation between Fund Size and Fund Performance
Authors: Yan Xuemin (Sterling) 
Published: April 2009

AbstractUsing stock transactions data along with detailed stockholdings for a comprehensive sample of U.S. actively managed equity mutual funds from 1993 to 2002, this paper empirically examines the effect of liquidity and investment style on the relation between fund size and fund performance. Consistent with Chen, Hong, Huang, and Kubik (2004), I find a significant inverse relation between fund size and fund performance. Further, this inverse relation is stronger among funds that hold less liquid portfolios. The inverse relation between fund size and fund performance is also more pronounced among growth and high turnover funds that tend to have high demands for immediacy. Overall, this paper's findings suggest that liquidity is an important reason why fund size erodes performance.
Star Power: The Effect of Monrningstar Ratings on Mutual Fund Flow
Authors: Guercio Diane Del , Tkac Paula A. 
Published: April 2009

AbstractWe apply an event-study methodology on over 10,000 Morningstar star rating changes and find that Morningstar has subsantial independent influence on the investment allocation decisions of retail mutual fund investors. It is the discrete change in the star rating itself and not the change in the underlying performance measures that drives frow. We document econnomically and statistically significant positive abnormal flow following rating upgrades, and negative abnormal flow following rating downgrades. In contrast to the cross-sectional flow performance literature, we find evidence of investor punishment of performance declines, some of which is evident immediately in the month of the rating change.
The Impact of Commercial Banks on Underwriting Spreads: Evidence from Three Decades
Authors: Kim Dongcheol , Palia Darius , Saunders Anthony 
Published: April 2009

AbstractThis paper examines the effect of commercial bank entry on underwriting spreads for IPOs, SEOs, and debt issues using a long time series that spans 30 years, from 1975 to 2004. We find that, on average, commercial banks charge lower spreads of approximately 72 basis points for IPOs, 43 basis points for SEOs, and 14 basis points for debt over the entire sample period. The economic impact of commercial banks on lowering underwriting spreads is most significant when commercial banks were allowed to enter via Section 20 subsidiaries but persists beyond. Commercial bank entry into underwriting appears to have a procompetitive effect that lasts many years after their initial entry.
Recovering Risk Neutral Densities from Option Prices: A New Approach
Authors: Rompolis Leonidas S. , Tzavalis Elias 
Published: April 2009

AbstractIn this paper we present a new method of approximating the risk neutral density (RND) from option prices based on the C-type Gram-Charlier series expansion (GCSE) of a probability density function. The exponential form of this type of GCSE guarantees that it will always give positive values of the risk neutral probabilities, and it can allow for stronger deviations from normality, which are two drawbacks of the A-type GCSE used in practice. To evaluate the performance of the suggested expansion of the RND, the paper presents simulation and empirical evidence.