bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
A Monsoon-Like Southwest Australian Circulation and Its Relation with Rainfall in Southwest Western Australia
Authors: Feng Juan , Li Jianping , Li Yun 
Published: November 2009

Abstract
Using the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis, the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40), and precipitation data from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the variability and circulation features influencing southwest Western Australia (SWWA) winter rainfall are investigated. It is found that the climate of southwest Australia bears a strong seasonality in the annual cycle and exhibits a monsoon-like atmospheric circulation, which is called the southwest Australian circulation (SWAC) because of its several distinct features characterizing a monsoonal circulation: the seasonal reversal of winds, alternate wet and dry seasons, and an evident land–sea thermal contrast. The seasonal march of the SWAC in extended winter (May–October) is demonstrated by pentad data. An index based on the dynamics’ normalized seasonality was introduced to describe the behavior and variation of the winter SWAC. It is found that the winter rainfall over SWWA has a significant positive correlation with the SWAC index in both early (May–July) and late (August–October) winter. In weaker winter SWAC years, there is an anticyclonic anomaly over the southern Indian Ocean resulting in weaker westerlies and northerlies, which are not favorable for more rainfall over SWWA, and the opposite combination is true in the stronger winter SWAC years. The SWAC explains not only a large portion of the interannual variability of SWWA rainfall in both early and late winter but also the long-term drying trend over SWWA in early winter. The well-coupled SWAC–SWWA rainfall relationship seems to be largely independent of the well-known effects of large-scale atmospheric circulations such as the southern annular mode (SAM), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), and ENSO Modoki (EM). The result offers qualified support for the argument that the monsoon-like circulation may contribute to the rainfall decline in early winter over SWWA. The external forcing of the SWAC is also explored in this study.
Delayed Advective Oscillation of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation
Authors: Lee Sang-Ki , Wang Chunzai 
Published: November 2009

Abstract
A simple dynamic model is proposed to illustrate the multidecadal oscillation of the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation. The proposed oscillation relies on alternating actions of positive and negative feedbacks, which are operated by a slow adjustment of the ocean circulation and the associated time delay in the advective flux response to a change in meridional density gradient. The key element of the oscillation is the time delay, which is conceptually related to the basin-crossing time of long Rossby waves in the high-latitude North Atlantic. For a sufficiently long time delay, the solution becomes unstable in some regions of model parameter space and oscillates with a period of approximately 2 times the delay time.
Assessing Hydrologic Impact of Climate Change with Uncertainty Estimates: Bayesian Neural Network Approach
Authors: Khan Mohammad Sajjad , Coulibaly Paulin 
Published: November 2009

AbstractA major challenge in assessing the hydrologic effect of climate change remains the estimation of uncertainties associated with different sources, such as the global climate models, emission scenarios, downscaling methods, and hydrologic models. There is a demand for an efficient and easy-to-use rainfall–runoff modeling tool that can capture the different sources of uncertainties to generate future flow simulations that can be used for decision making. To manage the large range of uncertainties in the climate change impact study on water resources, a neural network–based rainfall–runoff model—namely, Bayesian neural network (BNN)—is proposed. The BNN model is used with Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Coupled GCM, versions 1 and 2 (CGCM1 and CGCM2, respectively) with two emission scenarios, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) IS92a and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B2. One widely used statistical downscaling model (SDSM) is used in the analysis. The study is undertaken to simulate daily river flow and daily reservoir inflow in the Serpent and the Chute-du-Diable watersheds, respectively, in northeastern Canada. It is found that the uncertainty bands of the mean ensemble flow (i.e., flow simulated using the mean of the ensemble members of downscaled meteorological variables) is able to mostly encompass all other flows simulated with various individual downscaled meteorological ensemble members whichever CGCM or emission scenario is used. In addition, the uncertainty bands are also able to typically encompass most of the flows simulated with another rainfall–runoff model, namely, Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV). The study results suggest that the BNN model could be used as an effective hydrological modeling tool in assessing the hydrologic effect of climate change with uncertainty estimates in the form of confidence intervals. It could be a good alternative method where resources are not available to implement the general multimodel ensembles approach. The BNN approach makes the climate change impact study on water resources with uncertainty estimate relatively simple, cost effective, and time efficient.
The Deep Western Boundary Current at Cape Farewell: Results from a Moored Current Meter Array
Authors: Bacon Sheldon , Saunders Peter M. 
Published: November 2009

Abstract
An analysis is made of data from 30 Aanderaa recording current meters (RCMs) set on nine moorings located east of Cape Farewell, the southern tip of Greenland. The purpose of the measurements was to allow for the estimation of transport in the deep western boundary current (DWBC) below a depth of about 1500 m. The records commenced in September 2005 and lasted from 9.5 to 11.5 months. After calibration of the raw data, 12-h averages of temperature and current were derived and the latter employed to estimate the flow across and along the array direction. The 9.5-month average transport of water colder than 3°C was found to be 7.8 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 1 × 106 m3 s−1) with a standard error of 0.8 Sv. For water denser than σθ = 27.85 kg m−3, the transport is calculated as 4.5 Sv. Whether either of these values is significantly different from comparable measurements made 500 km upstream cannot be determined. In marked contrast, for σθ &gt; 27.8 kg m−3, the transport is estimated as only 9.0 Sv, smaller than the widely accepted value of 13 Sv for nearby measurements made in 1978. A reevaluation of the calculations and assumptions made then allows one to determine the uncertainty of the earlier estimate and thereby conclude that the difference between the previous and present measurements is significant, that is, that the transport has decreased between 1978 and 2005–06. A weakening of the transport during the 9.5-month period is also observed, along with a warming and an increase in salinity in the core of the DWBC. These latter changes are shown to be consistent with interannual variability rather than a long-term trend.
Detection of Cloud-Base Height Using Jenoptik CHM15K and Vaisala CL31 Ceilometers
Authors: Martucci Giovanni , Milroy Conor , O’Dowd Colin D. 
Published: November 2009

Abstract
Twelve case studies of multilayer cloud-base height (CBH) retrievals from two collocated ceilometers (Vaisala CL31 and Jenoptik CHM15K) have been analyzed. The studies were performed during the period from September to December 2008 at the Mace Head Atmospheric Research Station in Ireland. During the period of measurement, the two instruments provided vertical profiles of backscattered laser signal as well as the manufacturer’s operational cloud-base product. The cases selected covered a diverse range of cloud-cover conditions, ranging from single to multiple cloud layers and from cloud-base heights varying from only a few hundreds meters per day up to 3–5 km in a few hours. The results show significant offsets between the two manufacturer-derived CBHs along with a considerable degree of scatter. Using a newly developed temporal height-tracking (THT) algorithm applied to both ceilometers, significant improvement in the correlation between CBH derived from both instruments results in a correlation coefficient increasing to R2 = 0.997 (with a slope of 0.998) from R2 = 0.788 (with an associated slope of 0.925). Also, the regression intercept (offset) is reduced from 160 m to effectively zero (−3 m). For the worst individual case study, using the THT algorithm resulted in the correlation coefficient improving from R2 = 0.52, using the manufacturer’s output, to R2 = 0.97 with a reduction in the offset reducing from 569 to 32 m. Applying the THT algorithm to the backscatter profiles of both instruments led to retrieved cloud bases that are statistically consistent with each other and ensured reliable detection of CBH, particularly when inhomogeneous cloud fields were present and changing rapidly in time. The THT algorithm also overcomes multiple false cloud-base detections associated with the manufacturer’s output of the two instruments.
Importance of Horizontally Inhomogeneous Environmental Initial Conditions to Ensemble Storm-Scale Radar Data Assimilation and Very Short-Range Forecasts
Authors: Stensrud David J. , Gao Jidong 
Published: November 2009

Abstract
The assimilation of operational Doppler radar observations into convection-resolving numerical weather prediction models for very short-range forecasting represents a significant scientific and technological challenge. Numerical experiments over the past few years indicate that convective-scale forecasts are sensitive to the details of the data assimilation methodology, the quality of the radar data, the parameterized microphysics, and the storm environment. In this study, the importance of horizontal environmental variability to very short-range (0–1 h) convective-scale ensemble forecasts initialized using Doppler radar observations is investigated for the 4–5 May 2007 Greensburg, Kansas, tornadic thunderstorm event. Radar observations of reflectivity and radial velocity from the operational Doppler radar network at 0230 UTC 5 May 2007, during the time of the first large tornado, are assimilated into each ensemble member using a three-dimensional variational data assimilation system (3DVAR) developed at the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS). Very short-range forecasts are made using the nonhydrostatic Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) model from each ensemble member and the results are compared with the observations. Explicit three-dimensional environmental variability information is provided to the convective-scale ensemble using analyses from a 30-km mesoscale ensemble data assimilation system. Comparisons between convective-scale ensembles with initial conditions produced by 3DVAR using 1) background fields that are horizontally homogeneous but vertically inhomogeneous (i.e., have different vertical environmental profiles) and 2) background fields that are horizontally and vertically inhomogeneous are undertaken. Results show that the ensemble with horizontally and vertically inhomogeneous background fields provides improved predictions of thunderstorm structure, mesocyclone track, and low-level circulation track than the ensemble with horizontally homogeneous background fields. This suggests that knowledge of horizontal environmental variability is important to successful convective-scale ensemble predictions and needs to be included in real-data experiments.
The Impact of Assimilating Surface Pressure Observations on Severe Weather Events in a WRF Mesoscale Ensemble System
Authors: Wheatley Dustan M. , Stensrud David J. 
Published: November 2009

Abstract
Surface pressure observations are assimilated into a Weather Research and Forecast ensemble using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) approach and the results are compared with observations for two severe weather events. Several EnKF experiments are performed to evaluate the relative impacts of two very different pressure observations: altimeter setting (a total pressure field) and 1-h surface pressure tendency. The primary objective of this study is to determine the surface pressure observation that is most successful in producing realistic mesoscale features, such as convectively driven cold pools, which often play an important role in future convective development. Results show that ensemble-mean pressure analyses produced from the assimilation of surface temperature, moisture, and winds possess significant errors in regard to mesohigh strength and location. The addition of surface pressure tendency observations within the assimilation yields limited ability to constrain such errors, while the assimilation of altimeter setting yields accurate depictions of the mesoscale pressure patterns associated with mesoscale convective systems. The mesoscale temperature patterns produced by all the ensembles are quite similar and tend to reproduce the observed features. Results suggest that even though surface pressure observations can have large cross covariances with temperature and the wind components, the resulting analyses fail to improve upon the EnKF temperature and wind analyses that exclude the surface pressure observations. Ensemble forecasts following the assimilation period show the potential to improve short-range forecasting of surface pressure.
The Value of a Variable Resolution Approach to Numerical Weather Prediction
Authors: Buizza Roberto 
Published: November 2009

Abstract
It is shown that a numerical weather prediction system with variable resolution, higher in the early forecast range and lower afterward, provides more skilful forecasts than a system with constant resolution. Results indicate that the advantage can be detected also beyond the time when the resolution is truncated (truncation time). Forecasts generated with a T399 spectral truncation up to forecast day 3 and a T255 truncation from day 3 to day 8 (VAR3) are compared with forecasts generated with a constant T319 truncation. First, forecasts are verified in an idealized model error (IME) scenario against higher resolution, T799 simulations. In this scenario, VAR3 outperforms the T319 system beyond the day-3 truncation time for the entire 8-day forecast range, with differences statistically significant at the 5% level. Second, forecasts are verified in a realistic scenario against T799 analyses. In this case, although the advantage of VAR3 can still be detected beyond day 3, it is less evident and not statistically significant. Forecast error spectra indicate that using a higher-resolution model during the first forecast days improves the forecasts of the large scales, thus helping to maintain the advantage of the variable resolution system beyond the truncation time. VAR3 and T319 ensembles are also compared with forecasts with a T255, T399, and T799 constant resolution. The predictability “gain” of all ensemble configurations is measured with respect to the reference constant T255 configuration. Results show that, in the realistic scenario, VAR3 gives gains 50%–75% higher than T319 and 50%–75% lower than T799.
A Diagnosis of the 1979–2005 Extreme Rainfall Events in the Southeastern United States with Isentropic Moisture Tracing
Authors: Chan Steven C. , Misra Vasubandhu 
Published: November 2009

Abstract
A detailed analysis is performed to better understand the interannual and subseasonal variability of moisture sources of major recent dry (1980, 1990, and 2000) and wet (1994, 2003, and 2005) June–August (JJA) seasons in the southeastern United States. Wet (dry) JJAs show an increased (decreased) standard deviation of daily precipitation. Whereas most days during dry JJAs have little or no precipitation, wet JJAs contain more days with significant precipitation and a large increase of heavy (+10 mm) precipitation days. At least two tropical cyclone/depression landfalls occur in the southeastern United States during wet JJAs, whereas none occur during dry JJAs. The trajectory analysis suggests significant local recycling of moisture, implying that land surface feedback has the potential to enhance (suppress) precipitation anomalies during a wet (dry) JJA. Remote moisture sources during heavy precipitation events are very similar between wet and dry JJAs. The distinction between wet and dry JJAs lies in the frequency of heavy precipitation events. During the wet JJAs, heavy precipitation events contribute to more than half of the JJA precipitation total.
A Multicase Comparative Assessment of the Ensemble Kalman Filter for Assimilation of Radar Observations. Part II: Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts
Authors: Aksoy Altuğ , Dowell David C. , Snyder Chris 
Published: November 2009

Abstract
The quality of convective-scale ensemble forecasts, initialized from analysis ensembles obtained through the assimilation of radar observations using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), is investigated for cases whose behaviors span supercellular, linear, and multicellular organization. This work is the companion to Part I, which focused on the quality of analyses during the 60-min analysis period. Here, the focus is on 30-min ensemble forecasts initialized at the end of that period. As in Part I, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is employed as a simplified cloud model at 2-km horizontal grid spacing. Various observation-space and state-space verification metrics, computed both for ensemble means and individual ensemble members, are employed to assess the quality of ensemble forecasts comparatively across cases. While the cases exhibit noticeable differences in predictability, the forecast skill in each case, as measured by various metrics, decays on a time scale of tens of minutes. The ensemble spread also increases rapidly but significant outlier members or clustering among members are not encountered. Forecast quality is seen to be influenced to varying degrees by the respective initial soundings. While radar data assimilation is able to partially mitigate some of the negative effects in some situations, the supercell case, in particular, remains difficult to predict even after 60 min of data assimilation.
The Role of Equatorial Rossby Waves in Tropical Cyclogenesis. Part I: Idealized Numerical Simulations in an Initially Quiescent Background Environment
Authors: Gall Jeffrey S. , Frank William M. , Wheeler Matthew C. 
Published: November 2009

AbstractThis two-part series of papers examines the role of equatorial Rossby (ER) waves in tropical cyclone (TC) genesis. To do this, a unique initialization procedure is utilized to insert n = 1 ER waves into a numerical model that is able to faithfully produce TCs. In this first paper, experiments are carried out under the idealized condition of an initially quiescent background environment. Experiments are performed with varying initial wave amplitudes and with and without diabatic effects. This is done to both investigate how the properties of the simulated ER waves compare to the properties of observed ER waves and explore the role of the initial perturbation strength of the ER wave on genesis. In the dry, frictionless ER wave simulation the phase speed is slightly slower than the phase speed predicted from linear theory. Large-scale ascent develops in the region of low-level poleward flow, which is in good agreement with the theoretical structure of an n = 1 ER wave. The structures and phase speeds of the simulated full-physics ER waves are in good agreement with recent observational studies of ER waves that utilize wavenumber–frequency filtering techniques. Convection occurs primarily in the eastern half of the cyclonic gyre, as do the most favorable conditions for TC genesis. This region features sufficient midlevel moisture, anomalously strong low-level cyclonic vorticity, enhanced convection, and minimal vertical shear. Tropical cyclogenesis occurs only in the largest initial-amplitude ER wave simulation. The formation of the initial tropical disturbance that ultimately develops into a tropical cyclone is shown to be sensitive to the nonlinear horizontal momentum advection terms. When the largest initial-amplitude simulation is rerun with the nonlinear horizontal momentum advection terms turned off, tropical cyclogenesis does not occur, but the convectively coupled ER wave retains the properties of the ER wave observed in the smaller initial-amplitude simulations. It is shown that this isolated wave-only genesis process only occurs for strong ER waves in which the nonlinear advection is large. Part II will look at the more realistic case of ER wave–related genesis in which a sufficiently intense ER wave interacts with favorable large-scale flow features.
Comparison between Two Case Studies of Developing and Nondeveloping African Easterly Waves during NAMMA and AMMA/SOP-3: Absolute Vertical Vorticity Budget
Authors: Arnault Joël , Roux Frank 
Published: November 2009

Abstract
Two West African disturbances observed in August and September 2006 during the National Aeronautics and Space Administration African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (NAMMA) and the Special Observing Period 3 (AMMA/SOP-3) have been simulated using the Méso-NH numerical model with explicit convection. The first disturbance spawned Hurricane Helene (2006) off the West African coast, and the second one, referred to as perturbation D, though relatively intense, failed to develop. Over the continent, each case was associated with a well-defined African easterly wave (AEW) trough with embedded growing and decaying convective activity of various size, duration, and intensity. The aim of this work is to investigate the contribution of these convective systems in the generation and maintenance of cyclonic vorticity associated with the AEW trough, with respect to the synoptic-scale processes. The absolute vorticity budgets are analyzed during the “continental” and “oceanic transition” stages of these AEW troughs in order to highlight the similarities and differences between the developing pre-Helene disturbance and the nondeveloping perturbation D. For the developing case, low- to midlevel cyclonic vorticity was produced by convective processes through tilting and stretching. Cyclonic vorticity was then transported upward through vertical advection associated with convection and outward through horizontal advection mostly induced by the large-scale midlevel diverging circulation related to the downstream AEW ridge. For the nondeveloping case, low- to midlevel cyclonic vorticity production through stretching and tilting, and its vertical transport were relatively similar over the continent but smaller over the oceanic transition because of weaker convective activity. The outward transport through horizontal advection was also weaker as there was little midlevel divergence induced by the downstream AEW ridge in this case.