Predictive models of high risk of heart failure, atherosclerotic diseases and CKD in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus
Authors: Demidova T. Yu. , Izmaylova M. Y. 
Published: May 2024

Due to the high prevalence of complications from the cardiovascular system and kidneys in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) already in the early stages of the disease, it is interesting to identify predictors that could be used for early diagnosis and prevention of cardio-renal complications in patients with type 2 diabetes.Objective: to develop prognostic models for the development of ASCVD, CHF, and CKD in patients with type 2 diabetes, identifying predictors and determining the contribution of each factor in the development of these diseases.Material and methods: A one-time observational study was conducted on a sample of patients hospitalized in the endocrinology department of the State Budgetary Healthcare Institution of the City Clinical Hospital named after V.P. Demikhov. Statistical analysis was carried out using Jamovi and IBM SPSS Statistics 23 (IBM. USA). Differences were considered statistically significant at p <0.05. The construction of a prognostic model of the probability of a certain outcome was carried out using the logistic regression method with reverse stepwise exclusion of collinear factors, calculation of the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI).Results: The study included 1150 patients with type 2 diabetes, whose median age was 65 [57;74] years, median BMI - 31.2 [26.3; 35.8] kg/m2. According to logistic regression analysis, the most significant factors associated with the development of ASCVD in the population of patients with type 2 diabetes were: duration of diabetes more than 10 years (OR 4.16 (95% CI: 3.01-5.76) (p>0.001) ) and hypertension (OR 3.92 (95% CI: 2.17-7.08). Age over 60 years (OR 2.12 (95% CI: 1.46-3.06) (p>0.001), male gender (OR 1.61 95% CI: 1.14-2.26) (p>0.006)). Predictors increasing the likelihood of CHF were: patient age over 60 years (OR 4.05 (95% CI: 2). .70-6.06), (p>0.001)), previous MI (OR 3.71 (95%(2.58-5.33), p<0.001), presence of AF 2.93 (OR 2.93 (95 % CI: 1.79-4.78), p<0.001), hypertension (OR 2.45 (95% CI: 1.29-4.65), p<0.006) and female gender (OR 1.58 ( 95% 1.09-2.28), p<0.014). Factors increasing the odds of CKD were: age over 60 years (OR 2.36 (95% CI: 1.61-3.47), p <0.001), the presence of CHF was associated with an increase in the odds of CKD by 1.86 times (p <0.001), previous MI by 1.55 times (p<0.008), female gender by 1.62 times (p<0.004) and diabetes duration of more than 10 years by 1.44 times (p>0.037).Conclusion: The universal predictors of the development of cardiorenal complications in patients with type 2 diabetes were: age over 60 years and hypertension. Predictors of the development of ASCVD, in addition to universal ones, were: duration of diabetes and male gender; the likelihood of developing CHF increased in patients with a history of myocardial infarction, the presence of AF, and in females. The presence of obesity increased the chances of developing CHF, but was not associated with ASCVD and CKD. The odds of developing HF were similar regardless of the duration of diabetes, while the duration of diabetes was closely associated with the development of ASCVD and renal dysfunction. The following factors were associated with the development of CKD: duration of diabetes, female gender, history of CVD and female gender.