bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Promoting College Retention in First-Generation College Students
Authors: Thompson Mindi N. , Phillips Julia C. 
Published: February 2013

AbstractAbstract First-generation college students (FGCS) are those students whose parents did not attend or graduate from college. They are at greater risk for not graduating from college in comparison to students whose parents are college graduates. Counseling psychologists working in higher education are well situated to aid in retention of FGCS through various prevention efforts given our values and expertise. This chapter reviews the literature on characteristics of FGCS. First, we summarize existing empirical research relevant to the experiences of FGCS in institutions of higher education. Second, we offer a brief overview of relevant theories that provide explanatory context for understanding the success of FGCS. Third, we highlight strategic points of intervention for FGCS in order to prevent negative outcomes and overview avenues by which counseling psychologists have been involved in prevention efforts with FGCS. Finally, we explore approaches by which counseling psychologists can contribute to these prevention efforts. Directions for research, theory, and practice will be suggested for current and future generations of counseling psychologists.
Career Development as Prevention
Authors: Brown Steven D. , Lamp Kristen , Telander Kyle J. , Hacker Jason 
Published: February 2013

Abstract
Abstract The purpose of this chapter is to discuss the potential preventive implications of career development interventions, focusing primarily on how school dropout might be prevented and school performance might be promoted. We first use social cognitive career theory (SCCT) as a template by summarizing SCCT’s models of interest development, choice, performance, and satisfaction and outlining how these models can be used to design preventively oriented career interventions. We then introduce a social cognitive model of vocational hope that integrates SCCT with other relevant literatures (e.g., causes and consequences of school dropout, multicultural psychology). We define vocational hope, present hypotheses about how it might be promoted, and outline the types of short and long-range outcomes that might be associated with changes in vocational hope.
Preventing Racial Injuries, Promoting Racial Justice
Authors: Neville Helen A. , Spanierman Lisa B. 
Published: February 2013

AbstractAbstract Although most people publicly abhor individual, interpersonal, and institutional forms of racism, racial oppression persists in the United States. This oppression manifests itself in a host of racial inequalities. In this chapter, we define racism and its corollary White privilege and we outline their contemporary expressions. We present the disrupting racism ecological model to describe the multiple and interlocking systems that create and perpetuate racial oppression. We discuss tertiary and social justice prevention-interventions on college campuses that are designed to increase students’ critical consciousness and antiracism action. Next, we review the empirical literature on the influence of diversity courses in general, dialogue courses more specifically, and particular pedagogical practices on developing students’ critical consciousness. Additionally, we review the research supporting the effects of cocurricular diversity experiences such as interracial friendships. We conclude with a discussion of the limitations of the extant research and provide future directions for prevention-intervention researchers.
Forecasting with Real-Time Data Vintages
Authors: Croushore Dean 
Published: February 2013

AbstractWhen researchers develop forecasting models, they usually pull down data on a variety of economic variables from a current database. But the potential drawback is that the researcher is using data which are not the same as the data that will face a forecaster in real time. This article discusses issues which arise once it is acknowledged that the values of economic variables taken from the latest available database will not be the same as the data which the forecaster or researcher would have faced in real time. It discusses data revisions and their impact on forecasts, and optimal forecasting when data revisions exist.
Forecast Combinations
Authors: Aiolfi Marco , Capistrán Carlos , Timmermann Allan 
Published: February 2013

AbstractThis article studies two issues in forecast combination, first considering ways to combine forecasts from surveys and time series models. Second, it considers the possibility, advanced by Hendry and Clements (2004), that model instability can help explain the gains in forecasting performance resulting from combination. The article is organized as follows. Section 2 discusses the design of the universe of forecasting models used in combining forecasts from time series models and subjective survey forecasts. Section 3 undertakes an empirical analysis using forecasts from univariate and multivariate linear models, nonlinear models, and survey forecasts. Section 4 provides analytical results that shed light on the performance of forecast combinations under model instability. Section 5 presents empirical results on forecast combinations under breaks. Section 6 concludes.
Testing for Unconditional Predictive Ability
Authors: Clark Todd E. , McCracken Michael W. 
Published: February 2013

AbstractThis article provides an overview of methods for constructing tests of unconditional predictive ability. Section 2 begins by describing the necessary notation for delineating these results. Sections 3 and 4 provide a discussion of the two main forms of the null hypothesis: population-level unconditional tests of predictive ability and finite-sample unconditional tests of predictive ability. For each, the main methodological approaches to conducting inference are discussed, emphasizing results in Clark and McCracken (2001, 2005a, 2009a), Giacomini and White (2006), McCracken (2007), and West (1996). In both instances, the discussion is in the context of using estimated parametric models to form a point prediction of a scalar-dependent variable y. Other types of forecast are referenced when relevant. Section 5 provides a brief overview of other developments in this literature and suggests new directions for future research. Section 6 provides Monte Carlo evidence on the efficacy of selected methods, and Section 7 concludes.
Testing Conditional Predictive Ability
Authors: Giacomini Raffaella 
Published: February 2013

AbstractThis article discusses out-of-sample evaluation based on assessing the conditional predictive ability of forecasting models, which stands in contrast to the notion of unconditional predictive ability testing. Here the word “conditional” refers to any approach in the literature that has gone beyond assessing the forecasting performance of models on average. The common thread which unites the papers discussed in this article is the argument that focusing solely on the average, or global, performance of a model may result in a loss of information and possibly lead to incorrect forecast selection decisions. Most of the discussion focuses on the problem of comparing the performance of two competing forecasts, but some extensions to different testing environments are also pointed out.
Analyzing Three-Dimensional Panel Data of Forecasts
Authors: Davies Antony , Lahiri Kajal , Sheng Xuguang 
Published: February 2013

AbstractThis article illustrates how frameworks built around multidimensional panel data of forecasts can be used not only to test the rational expectations hypothesis correctly, but also to study alternative expectations-formation mechanisms, to distinguish anticipated from unanticipated shocks, and to distinguish forecast uncertainty from disagreement.
Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts
Authors: Katz Richard W. , Lazo Jeffrey K. 
Published: February 2013

AbstractThis article, which deals with methods for quantifying the economic value of weather and climate forecasts, is organized as follows. Section 2 provides some background on methods used to produce weather and climate forecasts, including the distinction between “weather” and “climate.” Section 3 introduces the concept of the economic value of imperfect information, based on the framework of decision theory and expected utility maximization. Section 4 reviews specific decision-analytic studies of the economic value of weather and climate forecasts. As a complement to the decision-theoretic approach, nonmarket valuation of weather and climate forecasts based on stated preference methods are described in Section 5. As an example, a recent survey of the public to obtain willingness-to-pay estimates for the economic value of improved hurricane forecasts is treated in detail. Finally, Section 6 consists of a discussion focusing on future research directions that could result in improved assessment of the economic value of weather and climate forecasts.
Election Forecasting
Authors: Lewis-Beck Michael S. , Tien Charles 
Published: February 2013

AbstractThis article, which reviews the nature of election forecasting, first defines forecasting as it applies to elections, and next looks at election forecasting history. Then, it examines the different approaches to election forecasting, focusing on statistical models. After presentation of a generic example of such a model specification, the article reviews template equations for more than one country, and shows that a political economic explanation is at the core of most equations. An issue that arises here concerns which economic predictor variables are preferred. This question receives thorough discussion, through explication of the UK case. Penultimately, the article discusses how to evaluate model quality, and concludes with the development of a leading example, that of forecasting US presidential elections.
Poetry and Rhetoric
Authors: Nicholls Peter 
Published: February 2013

AbstractThis article illustrates “rhetoric” as a multivalent term, encompassing deliberate deception, false fluency, redundancy, and inflated self-emphasis. It is a deeply unstable term, with one writer's meat invariably being another one's poison. Defined as cliché, commonplace, and unoriginal, though, rhetoric becomes a sort of inescapable ground against which literary innovation struggles constantly and “impossibly.” Ezra Pound had defined “rhetoric” as “the use of cliché unconsciously,” thereby perhaps leaving room for his own late invention of a consciously commonplace language of ethical injunction derived from Confucianism. Pound would not have seen the point of today's conceptual writing, though in one sense Goldsmith's work, with its blunt rejection of originality might be read as a programmatic and perhaps inevitable embrace of a rhetoric that was, for modernism, both a threat and a temptation.
Traumatic Stress in Special Populations
Authors: Mueser Kim T. , Lu Weili 
Published: February 2013

AbstractSpecial populations are individuals who by virtue of psychiatric, behavioral, cognitive, or physical disabilities are more likely to be exposed to psychological trauma. Individuals with severe psychiatric disorders, substance use disorders, developmental disabilities, and persons who are incarcerated are more likely to experience trauma throughout their lives, especially interpersonal victimization, and are more likely to develop posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Trauma and PTSD have a negative impact on special populations, often exacerbating psychiatric symptoms and substance abuse, and interfering with community functioning. Despite the high rates of trauma and PTSD in special populations, these problems are often not identified, and when they are, they are rarely treated. Recent progress has been made in adapting treatments developed for PTSD in the general population to special populations, including persons with severe mental illness and individuals with substance use disorders.
Empirically Supported Psychological Treatments: Cognitive Processing Therapy
Authors: Chard Kathleen M. , Schuster Wachen Jennifer , Resick Patricia A. 
Published: February 2013

AbstractCognitive Processing Therapy (CPT) has been recognized by the Institute of Medicine (2007) as one of the most effective treatments for PTSD. This chapter provides a brief overview of the CPT session content, the underlying mechanisms of the therapy, a review of the empirically based literature outlining the treatment effectiveness, limitations of the therapy, and areas of future research. In addition, the authors discuss the utility of the various versions of CPT, including cognitive only (CPT-C), group, individual, and combination. Further the research supporting the effectiveness of CPT for treating PTSD related to a variety of traumas, (e.g., combat, child abuse, and rape) and the significant impact CPT can have in areas of mental health related to PTSD (e.g., anger, guilt, social functioning) are described.
Empirically Supported Psychological Treatments: EMDR
Authors: Spates C. Richard , Rubin Sophie 
Published: February 2013

AbstractIn this chapter we review the empirical foundation for Eye Movement Desensitization and Reproessing Therapy (EMDR) for posttraumatic stress disorder. We present a brief description of the therapy, critically review recent primary and meta-analytic investigations concerning its efficacy and effectiveness, offer a summary of recent primary investigations that addressed the mechanism of action for EMDR, and based on this overall review, we suggest limitations with recommendations for future research. Recent empirical investigations of the efficacy of EMDR have improved along a number of important dimensions, and these along with the few completed effectiveness trials, position this therapy among evidence-based frontline interventions for PTSD. What is less thoroughly researched, and thus less well understood, are putative models of its theoretical mechanism of action. In addition to continuing specific improvements in research concerning efficacy and effectiveness, we recommend more and higher quality empirical studies of its mechanism of action.
Quantum Physics, Consciousness, and Free Will
Authors: Hodgson David 
Published: February 2013

AbstractThis article begins with an account of how quantum physics represents physical systems and how it differs from classical physics, focusing on three features of quantum theory that have been thought to be relevant to free will: indeterminism, nonlocality, and observer-participation. It examines various interpretations of quantum theory, including deterministic interpretations, such as the “many-worlds” interpretation and hidden variable interpretations. It considers other topics, puzzles about Schrodinger's cat and a recent challenge to deterministic interpretations of quantum theory, called “the free will theorem” by mathematicians John Conway and Simon Kochen. It discusses the views of three thinkers who have argued in different ways for the relevance of quantum theory to both consciousness and free will: mathematician Roger Penrose, physicist Henry Stapp, and neuroscientist and Nobel laureate John Eccles.
Compatibilism Without Frankfurt: Dispositional Analyses of free Will
Authors: Berofsky Bernard 
Published: February 2013

AbstractThis article considers recent debates about the adequacy of conditional analyses of freedom and classical compatibilism. It begins with a discussion of objections to conditional or hypothetical analyses of freedom that began to surface in the 1950s and 1960s. It discusses four such objections to conditional analyses, some of which can be successfully rebutted by classical compatibilists, but several of which present serious problems. These problems, the article argues, have led over the past fifty years to the abandonment of conditional analyses of freedom by many “new” compatibilists inspired by the work of Harry Frankfurt, P. F. Strawson, and others. The discussion notes that compatibilists must look beyond conditional accounts of freedom if they are to fully blunt the force of incompatibilist arguments.
Who'sStillAfraid of Determinism? Rethinking Causes and Possibilities
Authors: Taylor Christopher , Dennett Daniel 
Published: February 2013

AbstractThis article argues, in defense of compatibilism, that objections to compatibilist accounts of free agency are based on a flawed understanding of the relationship of such notions as possibility and causation to freedom and agency. It undertakes an analysis of the relevant notions of possibility and causation to show this. The article develops a compatibilist view, with special attention to technical issues about the nature of causation and possibility. In the process, it discusses recent technical views about the nature of causality, particularly that of Judea Pearl. It also develops some interesting analogies concerning the functioning of computers to argue that the flexibility, reflexivity, and creativity that free will requires are consistent with the hypothesis that human behavior, like that of intelligent machines, is determined.
Agent-Causal Theories of Freedom
Authors: O'Connor Timothy 
Published: February 2013

AbstractThis article provides an overview of recent agent-causal theories, explaining what motivates them to postulate an “ontologically primitive” notion of causation by an agent or substance that is not reducible to ordinary modes of event-causation. It considers different accounts of the agent-causal view which have been defended by libertarians. It also poses the question whether agent-causal theories require a substance dualism of mind and body since they posit a causal relation between an agent and action irreducible to ordinary modes of causation. It argues that agent-causal theories do not necessarily require substance dualism, but may require causal powers and properties that are ontologically emergent.
Free-Will Skepticism and Meaning in Life
Authors: Pereboom Derk 
Published: February 2013

AbstractThis article discusses and defends a hard incompatibilist position. It first explains why it rejects both compatibilism and libertarianism as adequate solutions to the free-will problem. This rejection of compatibilism is based upon the so-called “four-case manipulation argument.”. Regarding libertarianism, the article notes that the two most prominent theories, (centered) EC libertarianism and agent-causal (AC) libertarianism, fail for different reasons. The former falls prey to the “luck objection,” whereas the latter is not plausible, the article states, given the best scientific theories. The article argues in general that the consequences of hard incompatibilism would not be as destructive as many people believe and would be compensated by benefits in the form of more humane treatment of others.
Free Will, Fundamental Dualism, and the Centrality Of Illusion
Authors: Smilansky Saul 
Published: February 2013

AbstractThis article's view is unusual among contemporary views of free will. It is defined by two radical theses. The first, Fundamental Dualism, says that we can and should be both incompatibilists and compatibilists about freedom and responsibility. There is no reason, the article argues, why it should not be the case that certain forms of moral responsibility, desert, and blame require libertarian free will, whereas other forms can be sustained without it. Thus, if libertarian free will is impossible, there is no reason why we have to choose between hard determinism or compatibilism. The second thesis, Illusionism, is even more radical. It notes that the consequences for humanity of widespread belief that we lack libertarian free will would be dire and destructive. Illusion about free will is therefore morally necessary.
Free Will and the Bounds of the Self
Authors: Knobe Joshua , Nichols Shaun 
Published: February 2013

AbstractThis article appeals to experimental studies in order to elucidate the reactions of ordinary persons to the picture of the human mind that is prevalent in contemporary cognitive science. According to this prevalent cognitive-scientific picture, the mind is made up of states and processes that interact according to certain rules to generate specific behaviors. The discussion argues that this picture is disturbing to ordinary persons, who reason that if the mind works that way, we would not be morally responsible for what we did because our behaviors would inevitably result from facts about the configuration of states and processes within us. It concludes that people have access to different conceptions of the self, on some of which cognitive science is a genuine threat to free will, on others not. The puzzlement people feel about free will is therefore not merely a superficial muddle that can be dissolved by conceptual clarification.
The Role of Death in Life: Existential Aspects of Human Motivation
Authors: Kesebir Pelin , Pyszczynski Tom 
Published: February 2013

AbstractThe capacity for self-reflection, which plays an important role in human self-regulation, also leads people to become aware of the limitations of their existence. Awareness of the conflict between one's desires (e.g., to live) and the limitations of existence (e.g., the inevitability of death) creates the potential for existential anxiety. In this chapter, we review how this anxiety affects human motivation and behavior in a variety of life domains. Terror management theory and research suggest that transcending death and protecting oneself against existential anxiety are potent needs. This protection is provided by an anxiety-buffering system, which imbues people with a sense of meaning and value that function to shield them against these concerns. We review evidence of how the buffering system protects against existential anxiety in four dimensions of existence: the physical, personal, social, and spiritual domains. Because self-awareness is a prerequisite for existential anxiety, escaping self-awareness can also be an effective way to obviate the problem of existence. After elaborating on how existential anxiety can motivate escape from self-awareness, we conclude the chapter with a discussion of remaining issues and directions for future research and theory development.
The Motivational Complexity of Choosing: A Review of Theory and Research
Authors: Patall Erika A. 
Published: February 2013

AbstractYears of research have implicated a complex set of motivational causes and consequences of choice. Psychological theory has often prescribed the benefits of choosing, though limitations to this view of choice as being ubiquitously positive are apparent. In this chapter, the relation between choice and motivation is examined. Conceptualizations of choice as both an outcome of motivation and a motivational experience are described. The benefits and determinants of receiving and perceiving choice for motivation are then discussed according to various psychological theories. Next, the complex and often contradictory findings regarding the relation between choice and motivation are discussed in light of various factors (e.g., characteristics of choices, persons, and situations) that may influence those effects. Issues that have yet to be adequately addressed in the research on choice effects and the directions that future research might take are briefly discussed.