bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Identifying Arbitrage Opportunities in Today's Energy Market Utilizing Portfolio Optimization, the Efficient Frontier Method, Risk Management and Market Correlations
Authors: Alcoser L. 
Published: September 2012

Abstract
This paper outlines an innovative technique for identifying and subsequently optimizing superior investments in the energy sector, both from the point of view from the individual and institutional investor. The first step presents how to organize perspective energy stocks and then subsequently calculate expected returns based on historical stock prices. The expected return results from the selected energy stocks are then contrasted against the S&P 500 performance over the same period to eventually illustrate the energy stocks generally performed significantly better than the market over the past 5 years. The next step outlines how to calculate and determine the optimum energy portfolio utilizing advanced portfolio theory and the efficient frontier methodology. Analysis of this optimum portfolio indicates that the optimal portfolio mix, for the given stocks, is comprised of nine energy stocks and his heavily leveraged in Super Major stock. Finally, risk mitigation strategies are discussed and a workflow for optimizing portfolio diversification is presented. The results of which indicate that seven individual stocks were needed to effectively diversify a portfolio of positively correlateable stocks to a point where the standard deviation of the portfolio would be below 8%. This information can be used by investors to identify trends and arbitrage opportunities in the energy sector. In addition, this information can be used by operating companies to effectively contrast their performance versus their peers and the sector as a whole in an effort to attract new investors and secure market confidence. Additionally, individuals and institutions can use the information and techniques presented to optimize their own risk management strategies.
Impact of Uncertainty in Estimation of Shale Gas Reservoir and Completion Properties on EUR Forecast and Optimal Development Planning: A Marcellus Case Study
Authors: Jayakumar R. , Rai Rakesh 
Published: September 2012

Abstract
The use of multi-stage fractured horizontal wells has made production from shale gas plays feasible. The production history from these wells is characterized by long transient linear transient flow. The key reservoir (nature) and completion (nurture) properties that impact flow behavior of the well are permeability, Original Hydrocarbon in Place (OHIP), number of hydraulic fractures, fracture area and fracture spacing. Understanding the interrelationship between these parameters is critical for optimal development of shale gas resource plays. The proposed shale gas workflow uses a hybrid analytical model. An analytics based diagnostic process analyzes well performance history and a numerical model validates the feasible history match models for representative forecasts. The model results allow the user to capture the range of uncertainty in estimating individual reservoir or completion properties, such as permeability, fracture area, fracture spacing, etc. The diagnostic process provides the relationship between key factors dictating well performance such as OHIP, effective fracture area, effective reservoir permeability, effective fracture spacing and well spacing. In this paper, wells from the Marcellus play, in Pennsylvania, USA are evaluated using the proposed shale gas workflow. Surveillance is an integral part of this workflow. The paper shows how surveillance can be used for resource management and exception management. Along with data mining, the workflow accelerates the learning curve to evaluate the effectiveness of current field practices. The results help with understanding the effectiveness of proppant pumped, the potential number of contributing clusters and production issues. Continued surveillance reduces the uncertainty surrounding all parameters. This knowledge base can then be used to optimize the asset development strategy, maximizing the return on investment (ROI).
The Economic Folly of Chasing Schedules in Oil Developments and the Unintended Consequences of Such Strategies
Authors: Nandurdikar Neeraj S. , Kirkham Peter Michael 
Published: September 2012

Abstract
Most oil and gas executives and financial analysts have long believed that minimizing the time to first oil is one of the most important parameters to maximize the economic value of exploration and production (E&P) projects. This belief has driven project teams and oil company executives to push ever faster schedules. Our data show that chasing fast project schedules inadvertently destroys more value than it creates. We use a detailed database of oil and gas projects to conduct a rigorous statistical analysis, comparing project economics promised at sanction to the actual results achieved. Using performance data from the database, we can statistically quantify the change in expected outcomes (cost, production, reserves), and therefore the net present value (NPV) realized, as a result of different schedule targets.
The results show that chasing aggressive first oil dates has a consistent negative effect on NPV because of worse than expected cost and production attainment. These effects are more damaging than the loss of value that occurs if a project is slowed down early in the project cycle to improve the quality of front-end preparation and planning that helps to mitigate cost and production attainment shortfalls.
When speed becomes paramount, reservoir appraisal and project definition phases are shortened projects proceed without high-quality basic subsurface data, and often short-cut crucial planning phases. As the quality of data and planning degrades, teams are forced to make more assumptions, which increases uncertainty in cost, production, and reserves estimates. During execution, these major uncertainties, along with incomplete data and planning, drive cost growth, reserves downgrades, production shortfalls and, ironically, schedule slip. The poor than expected outcomes have a negative influence on the project economics, but are often ignored by economic models.
In all projects there are choices to be made that lead to trade-offs between cost, schedule and production. Many companies prioritize their focus primarily on meeting their schedule and then, cost targets in order to achieve maximum economic returns. The reason production is often not part of the trade-off is because because of the belief that there is no trade-off between schedule and production, only between schedule and cost. Our analysis provides evidence to the contrary leading us to conclude that the order of priority should be reversed. We go beyond this observation and provide the reader with insights into how the unintended consequences of certain project drivers can be incorporated into more realistic economic models.
Reining In the Data Junkies -- Having the Guts Not to Appraise
Authors: Burdett Patrick O. , Haskett William J. 
Published: September 2012

Abstract
With multi-billion dollar price tags for developments in deepwater, it is important to be prudent in reducing subsurface risk. But ultimately, the deepwater oil and gas business is a risky one, and sometimes the best course forward is to stop looking for unobtainable information and just proceed with development. And at $100+ million per well, deepwater appraisal is certainly not the place to be conducting science experiments. Subsurface experts are always hungry for more information, but this is not the realm of information for its own sake. Unless an appraisal well can affect key development decisions, it should probably be forgone. This paper reviews an actual application of a value of information (VOI) approach to putting a number on the value that each of several different appraisal wells could add to a potential development. The theoretical basis of this analysis has been covered by other authors -- the focus here is on the practical application of the method and advice on carrying it out.
A VOI assessment is made on three proposed appraisal well targets in a discovered deepwater oil field. A standard application of VOI is used, using several key subsurface risks and uncertainties as the learning priorities for appraisal. These are built into a reservoir model and incorporated into an Experimental Design process to derive a regression equation for ultimate recoverable oil. Decision trees using discrete realizations as endpoints and an economic model are used to understand the various development decision paths with no additional information, with perfect information, and with imperfect information on the target uncertainties.
The assessment of two of the three appraisal targets does not show enough information to change the original development plan. While the information does affect the estimate of ultimate recoverable oil, it does not change well placement, the optimal host capacity, or the basic Go/No-go decision on the development. A third target, penetrating multiple potential stacked reservoirs, does show the potential to materially change the development plan and is pursued. In the analysis, several factors are critical, including:
clarity on the reference case decision with no additional information; clear benchmarks on threshold economic criteria; good reliability assessments and sensitivity testing; a good Design of Experiments process incorporating all key uncertainties; inputs from development planners and engineers to understand the impact of subsurface information on the development plan.
The approach is able to put a dollar value on appraisal information and tie subsurface uncertainties directly back to critical development decisions. The analysis uses inputs that are all currently available or readily obtained from the project team. Most importantly, the analysis shifts the focus of appraisal from uncertainty to decisions, and this shift in perspective can have a profound effect on how a company approaches appraisal.
Leveraging Stochastic Analysis to Optimize Pioneer Natural Resources’ Spraberry Trend Portfolio
Authors: Nelson Scott L. , Hudson Jeffery W. , Hooker Andrew 
Published: September 2012

Abstract
Prompted by the need to fully characterize a 10,000 plus undrilled well inventory, Pioneer Natural Resources began using a stochastic system to evaluate its Spraberry Trend portfolio. The system incorporated methods advocated in the recently published SPEE Monograph 3, "Guidelines for the Practical Evaluation of Undeveloped Reserves in Resource Plays." This paper reviews the tools and processes employed to statistically value Pioneer's undeveloped potential across its Spraberry Trend acreage. Clearly defining the entire well inventory enabled Pioneer to economically optimize the development of its entire Spraberry Trend portfolio.
Evaluating opportunities using a stochastic process enables the historical production performance to be analyzed over a broad test area as opposed to being confined to a location's "direct offsets". The Spraberry Trend has a large existing well count that can be leveraged for statistical analysis. However, its complex development history and variability in vertical well production horizons can make this difficult. To adjust for these impedances, analogue well sets were defined by generating standardized multi-zone production groups and categorizing the increased density drilling by well vintage. Several unique tools and an extensive individually forecasted well data set were created to increase the efficiency of the process.
A robust statistical definition of Pioneer's entire Spraberry asset facilitated the optimization of its entire Pioneer portfolio through: allocation of the 36 rig program based on economics and land requirements, comparing potential acquisitions to the current portfolio, and increasing clarity of the Net Asset Value of the Spraberry.
Methods reviewed in this paper have applications beyond portfolio optimization; Pioneer has already modified these stochastic evaluation methods to book proved reserves across its acreage position in the Spraberry Trend. Additionally, other operators could employ similar techniques for economic assessments of their portfolios in other resource plays.
A Foilized Polyethylene Pouch for the Prevention of Transmission of HIV from Mother to Child
Authors: Malkin Robert , Howard Caroline 
Published: September 2012

Many children become HIV+ due to mother-to-child transmission, a risk that can be largely eliminated if infants ingest antiretroviral (ARV) medications immediately after birth. As most mothers in Africa deliver at home, the ARV must be provided at their last antenatal visit, sometimes months before birth. No current drug delivery system allows the mother to store the medication at home long enough to be effective. We propose a preserving, foilized, polyethylene pouch to be pre-dosed and sealed by a pharmacist for later delivery to the newborn.
Pouches were filled with 0.6 ml of Nevirapine (NVP). Thirty-three pouches were immediately studied to measure the impact of medication handling (oxygen, light, filling and sealing the pouches). The remaining samples were stored for up to one year at three storage conditions (25°C/60%RH, 30°C/65%RH, and 40°C/75%RH). Every two months, moisture loss, preservative concentration, impurity concentrations and NVP concentration were measured. Flora and fauna challenges were conducted.
The pouch nearly eliminated moisture loss: pouches lost less than 0.7% of their weight over twelve months. As expected, exposing the medication to light, oxygen, and handling significantly affected the sacrificial preservative concentrations (Propyl paraben dropped 38%, Methyl paraben dropped 12% at time point zero). However, after the initial time point, preservative levels were stable in the package over twelve months under all storage conditions (4.1% average concentration drop), leaving sufficient preservatives to protect the medication. The concentration of NVP changed an average of only 1.3% over all storage conditions and times points (maximum 1.4%).
We conclude that the foilized polyethylene pouch can preserve NVP, and perhaps other ARV’s, for up to one year.
How to Manage Radical Innovation
Authors: Stringer Robert 
Published: September 2012

Three of the people attending the meeting in a Chicago suburb were going broke. They had spent most of their money and all of their time for the past two years trying to commercialize a radical innovation called “Liquid Life,” an all-natural beverage made 100% from pureed fruit. They had developed an attractive plastic package, six good tasting flavors, and eye catching point-of-sale promotional materials. Grocery stores had told them they loved the idea and would gladly carry the product. However, consumers knew nothing about “Liquid Life” and it would take millions of dollars to commercialize the innovation the way the three entrepreneurs wanted to do it. Now, they had run out of money and time. Four other people were at the meeting. Two were investment bankers, one a venture capitalist, and one a vice-president from Big Food, Inc., a Fortune 100 food and beverage company. Three of these four tried, once again, to convince the “Liquid Life” entrepreneurs to sell their ideas and technology to the food company. Once again, this advice was met with an emotional refusal. The argument was always the same: the food company loved the breakthrough technology and was desperate for a radical new idea that might pump life into one of its existing product categories, but they could not pay much for an unproved innovation. The “Liquid Lifers” loved the idea of having a big company's resources behind them, but they knew the food company would strangle their commercialization dreams and control the way they developed future products. None of them wanted to join a large—though very successful—public company. The investment bankers had brought the food company to the meeting and advised the “Liquid Lifers” to sell. The venture capitalist wasn't so sure.
Aortic thrombosis in dogs: 31 cases (2000–2010)
Authors: Lake-Bakaar Geri A. , Johnson Eric G. , Griffiths Leigh G. 
Published: September 2012

Abstract
Objective—To describe clinical signs, treatment, and outcome of aortic thrombosis in dogs.
Design—Retrospective case series.
Animals—31 dogs with aortic thrombosis.
Procedures—Records were retrospectively reviewed and data collected regarding signalment, historical signs, physical examination findings, laboratory testing, definitive diagnosis, and presence of concurrent disease.
Results—The records of 31 dogs with clinical or postmortem diagnosis of aortic thrombosis were reviewed. Onset of clinical signs was acute in 14 (45%) dogs, chronic in 15 (48%), and not documented in 2 (6%). Femoral pulses were subjectively weak in 6 (19%) dogs and absent in 17 (55%). Frequent laboratory abnormalities included high BUN concentration (n = 13), creatinine concentration (6), creatine kinase activity (10), and D-dimer concentration (10) and proteinuria with a urine protein–to–creatinine concentration ratio > 0.5 (12). Concurrent conditions included neoplasia (n = 6), recent administration of corticosteroids (6), and renal (8) or cardiac (6) disease. Median survival time was significantly longer for dogs with chronic onset of disease (30 days; range, 0 to 959 days) than for those with acute onset of clinical signs (1.5 days; range, 0 to 120 days).
Conclusions and Clinical Relevance—Results suggested that aortic thrombosis is a rare condition in dogs and accounted for only 0.0005% of hospital admissions during the study period. The clinical signs for dogs with aortic thrombosis differed from those seen in feline patients with aortic thromboembolism. Median survival time was significantly longer for dogs with chronic disease than for dogs with acute disease. Despite treatment, outcomes were typically poor, although protracted periods of survival were achieved in some dogs.
Effect of antimicrobial-containing semen extender on risk of dissemination of contagious equine metritis
Authors: Klein Claudia , Donahue James M. , Sells Steve F. , Squires Edward L. , Timoney Peter J. , Troedsson Mats H. T. 
Published: September 2012

Abstract
Objective—To determine the impact of antimicrobial-containing semen extender on the growth of Taylorella equigenitalis in semen culture-positive for contagious equine metritis (CEM) and the development of CEM after artificial insemination with CEM-positive semen extended with antimicrobial-containing semen extender.
Design—Prospective study.
Animals—21 mature mares free of CEM, 1 mature stallion experimentally infected with CEM, and semen from a stallion naturally infected with CEM.
Procedures—CEM-positive semen was incubated in semen extender with and without antimicrobials (amikacin [final concentration, 1 g/L] and penicillin G potassium [0.63 g/L]) followed by determination of the number of colony-forming units of T equigenitalis. Mares were inseminated with raw, extended, or cryopreserved semen culture-positive for T equigenitalis and observed for clinical signs of CEM. Samples for bacterial culture were obtained from the uterus, clitoral sinuses, and clitoral fossa of mares 7, 14, and 21 days after artificial insemination.
Results—Antimicrobial-containing semen extender significantly reduced the number of colony-forming units of T equigenitalis in CEM-positive semen. Artificial insemination with raw CEM-positive semen resulted in clinical signs of CEM, whereas artificial insemination with extended or cryopreserved CEM-positive semen did not result in clinical signs of CEM.
Conclusions and Clinical Relevance—Antimicrobial-containing semen extender significantly reduced the risk of dissemination of CEM. The inclusion of amikacin (1 g/L) and penicillin G potassium (0.63 g/L) in extended semen reduced the transmission of CEM from stallions to mares during artificial insemination, which may result in altered dissemination of the disease.
Survival rates of mares and foals and postoperative complications and fertility of mares after cesarean section: 95 cases (1986–2000)
Authors: Abernathy-Young Kimberly K. , LeBlanc Michelle M. , Embertson Rolf M. , Pierce Scott W. , Stromberg Arnold J. 
Published: September 2012

Abstract
Objective—To assess survival-to-discharge rates of mares and foals and postoperative complications and fertility in mares following cesarean section (C-section).
Design—Retrospective case series.
Animals—95 mares.
Procedures—Medical and breeding records of mares that underwent C-section were reviewed; signalment, surgical technique, complications, survival-to-discharge rate, and pregnancy and foaling rates were recorded and evaluated. Foaling rates in the 3 years after C-section were compared with the cumulative foaling rate before C-section.
Results—C-section was performed because of dystocia (n = 71) or concurrent maternal disease (20) or was elective (4). Overall survival-to-discharge rate was 84% (80/95) for mares and 35% (28/80) for foals. Six of 15 mares that had partial fetotomies prior to C-section did not survive. Mares that had dystocia for < 90 minutes had the fewest complications. Cumulative foaling rate before C-section was 77% (394/509). Overall foaling rate for the 3 years after C-section was 52% (30/58) and 68% (13/19) when duration of dystocia was ≥ 90 minutes and < 90 minutes, respectively, and was 31 % (9/29) for mares ≥ 16 years old. Foaling rate was significantly lower for mares bred in the same year as C-section than for mares bred in later years.
Conclusions and Clinical Relevance—Breeding in the same year as C-section, dystocia for ≥ 90 minutes before C-section, and mare age ≥ 16 years were associated with poor foaling rates. Prognosis for delivery of a live foal in years following C-section was good if duration of dystocia was < 90 minutes and the mare was < 16 years old at the time of surgery.
Fatal musculoskeletal injuries of Quarter Horse racehorses: 314 cases (1990–2007)
Authors: Sarrafian Tiffany L. , Case James T. , Kinde Hailu , Daft Barbara M. , Read Deryck H. , Moore Janet D. , Uzal Francisco A. , Stover Susan M. 
Published: September 2012

Abstract
Objective—To determine major causes of death and the anatomic location of musculoskeletal injuries in Quarter Horse racehorses in California.
Design—Retrospective case series.
Animals—314 Quarter Horse racehorses with musculoskeletal injuries that were necropsied through the California Horse Racing Board Postmortem Program from 1990 to 2007.
Procedures—Postmortem pathology reports were retrospectively reviewed. Musculoskeletal injuries were categorized by anatomic region and described. The number of Quarter Horse starts and starters for the same period of time were obtained from a commercial database for determination of fatal injury incidence.
Results—Musculoskeletal injuries accounted for 314 of the 443 (71 %) Quarter Horse racehorses that died during the 18-year study period. Fatal musculoskeletal injuries occurred at a rate of 2.0 deaths/1,000 race starts and 18.6 deaths/1,000 horses that started a race. Musculoskeletal injuries occurred predominantly during racing (84%) and in the forelimbs (81%). The most common fatal musculoskeletal injuries were metacarpophalangeal and metatarsophalangeal joint (fetlock) support injuries (40%) and carpal (24%), vertebral (10%), and scapular (8%) fractures. Proximal interphalangeal (pastern) joint luxations resulted in death of 3% of horses. Fracture configurations of some bones were consistent with those of Thoroughbred racehorses. Evidence of preexisting stress remodeling of bone was reported for some fractures.
Conclusions and Clinical Relevance—Knowledge of common locations and types of fatal musculoskeletal injuries in racing Quarter Horses may enhance practitioners' ability to detect mild injuries early, rest horses, and help prevent catastrophic injuries.