bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Make Better Decisions
Authors: Ambrose Jason , Monette Scott A. , Malani Sanjay 
Published: June 2014

Abstract
Declining global economic conditions and increased pressure to find new, affordable sources of energy create a turbulent macro environment for oil and gas companies. Stakeholders present conflicting goals of increased return on investment while simultaneously reducing risk and providing greater transparency into project performance. The traditional models of large scale investment into major capital projects can no longer guarantee success; instead, organizations must focus on capital management throughout a project's life cycle. Significant effort, time, and resources are invested in project delivery. However, poor decisions during the planning phases may result in loss of value during execution. By combining decision analysis tools and techniques with integrated, dynamic planning systems, companies are able to carefully manage their capital across the project life cycle to understand their costs, resources, and schedules. These companies benefit from increased collaboration leading to more informed decision making balancing risk and reward.
This paper presents an innovative method for evaluating and dynamically planning the development of uncertain upstream investments. It centers on a paradigm shift in the way upstream managers assess investments, toward an approach that incorporates decision analysis tools and techniques with integrated dynamic planning systems. Case study examples are provided to illustrate key principles.
Assessing Value of Test Wells in Developing an Unconventional Play – Decision Entropy Theory
Authors: Habibi Mahdi , Gilbert Robert B. , Lake Larry W. , McIntosh Patrick 
Published: June 2014

Abstract
Unconventional plays have considerable uncertainty in production and economics. This paper proposes Decision Entropy Theory to represent uncertainty in unconventional plays in an objective and defensible way. The motivation to develop this theory is to account for the possibility of events occurring that are beyond our range of experience. This theory characterizes uncertainty in the context of making a decision; the case of maximum uncertainty corresponds to the maximum entropy for the possible outcomes of the decision. Assessing the value of test wells before committing to developing a play with unconventional resources is used to illustrate the theory.
We pose the decision to develop an unconventional play in terms of the cost of development, the ratio of the return-on-investment for productive wells in the play, and the uncertain frequency of productive versus unproductive wells in the play. Results for the value of tests wells are obtained and provided graphically in non-dimensional relationships.
Significant conclusions are the following:
The probability distribution for the uncertain frequency of productive wells is important both for deciding whether or not to develop a play and for the value of information from test wells. It is unreasonable to assume that the probability distribution for the frequency of productive wells can be established based entirely on experience because that precludes the possibility of events beyond our experience. Such events can be particularly important with unconventional plays where experience tends to be limited. The value of test wells is enhanced when leaving open the possibilities for profit on a play with a small return-on-investment ratio and the possibility for loss on a play with a large return-on-investment ratio. There is a balance between relying entirely on historical data from analogous plays versus not relying on them at all. Within this balance, information for test wells at a new play can be combined with information from analogous plays to inform the decision about developing the new play. The value of test wells in a new play depends on the break-even frequency of good wells in the play; in the case of no information, this value is a maximum when the break-even frequency is 50 percent.
A Stochastic Techno-Economic Model for Multi-Target Exploratory Prospects, Including Tax Implications of Purchase Price
Authors: Cronshaw Mark , Lencioni Letha C. 
Published: June 2014

Abstract
Probabilistic analysis is commonly used for evaluation of exploratory prospects, where uncertainty exists about the prospect size. A common methodology is to estimate distributions for parameters used in volumetrics, perform stochastic simulation, and utilize discrete estimate(s) from the resulting resource distribution, prepare economic projections for these cases, and estimate a probability of success (POS) based on geoscientists’ judgment about various risk factors. The POS is multiplied times the discounted net present value (NPV) of the success case, while one minus the POS would be multiplied times the NPV of failure. These values are summed to yield the expected value. Alternatively, the POS can be incorporated into the probabilistic analysis, including risk factors in discrete distributions. Incorporating the economic calculation into the probabilistic analysis can capture all possible outcomes, including non-commercial discoveries.
This paper describes a stochastic model for valuation of an exploratory prospect, prepared in an Excel spreadsheet with the @Risk add-in. The model accounts for the U.S. tax implications of the purchase price. The purchase price is eligible for depletion in the event of exploratory and development success, but can be written off in the event of failure. The model allows for two target reservoirs, and the multiple possible outcomes of that exploration scenario. Several examples are presented, and will be compared with the method using only one or three economic cases.
This model was used to prepare an estimate of the net present value of an exploration prospect for income tax purposes. The model enables proper consideration of the multiple possible outcomes. Of key importance in the application for this relatively low POS prospect was the inclusion of the tax benefit of writing off the purchase price in the failure cases. This early write-off can offset the failure costs against other taxable income, which is a substantial economic benefit.
The importance of this work includes a methodology to properly account for the multiple possible outcomes with uncertainties not only in prospect size and productivity, but also in economic factors including oil pricing, exploration and development costs, and operating costs.
Unlocked Shale gas: Latin-American potential. A case study of Mexico and Argentina Case Study
Authors: Esther Escobar 
Published: June 2014

Abstract
Argentina and Mexico have been long-term natural gas producers, supplying most of their domestic gas demand. However, due to a decline in the production of their associated and non-associated gas fields in recent years, the gap between the production and domestic consumption of natural gas has widened.
An updated EIA 2013 assessment of shale gas resources per country ranks Argentina and Mexico as the second and sixth largest in terms of technically recoverable shale gas resources with risked most likely estimates of 802 Tcf and 545 Tcf respectively. The impact of these newly identified gas resources on future supply is a key question, of particular importance is whether shale gascould bring about a reversal in the current decline in gas production over the next few decades. In view of the large resources identified, renewing the energy policies in Argentina and Mexico could serve as the main driving force for unlocking shale gas production. In order to analyse both countries, natural gas market data available for the period 2011 to present, were reviewed. To examine the current situation of both countries, the following were analysed: the hydrocarbon law (related to gas production), the structure of the both markets, price incentives and fiscal regimes. This paper concluded that the main criterion which is likely to control shale gas development in either Mexico or Argentina, is the trend of the natural gas prices at which both countries trade. Model results demonstrate how the development of shale gas is relatively unattractive in Mexico due to it adopting Henry Hub gas prices. In contrast, a model for Argentina shows how the uplift in gas prices at wellhead has spurred shale gas exploration investment in Argentina.
‘Carry My Share’: Assessing the Impact of State Participation on Upstream Contractor Value
Authors: Ikezogwo Obiocha A. , Boodoo Sonya 
Published: June 2014

Abstract
In many host countries, the fiscal system governing petroleum resource exploitation allows the State, represented by its National Oil Company (NOC), to participate in petroleum projects. A common form of said participation is via the ‘carry’, in which the contractor ‘carries’ the NOC through one or more stages of the project, effectively shouldering the latter's share of costs. In this way, the ‘carry’ resembles a loan to the NOC by the contractor. Like any other loan, this has financial implications, and can significantly impact the contractor's view of upstream project economics.
The ‘carry’ mechanism is an important yardstick that should be considered in comparative analysis of petroleum fiscal systems. In this paper, we assessed the impact of NOC participation on contractor value, using a sample of twenty-five fiscal systems. For each regime, economic models representing ‘carry’ and ‘no carry’ scenarios were constructed, and evaluated using seven economic indicators. We observed that the existence of ‘carry’ does not affect overall project viability, but, in most cases, it reduces contractor value. Furthermore, we found that ‘carry’ skews project risk towards the contractor, by increasing maximum capital exposure. Finally, by comparing two different measures of Government Take (a key measure of the attractiveness of a fiscal regime), we demonstrate that including‘carry'as part of Government Take results in an increase in the State's share of resource rent.
A Probabilistic Approach to Reserves Booking and Evaluation in Early Development Fields
Authors: Huerta Quiñones Víctor A. 
Published: June 2014

Abstract
Technical recoverable volumes estimation and reserves booking are two of the most significant and complex tasks in the petroleum industry, since figures add value to company assets and/or the economy of a country. Both processes, which not always are quite compatible because of project maturity or non-technical issues, usually embrace uncertainty due to lack of information and different criteria of reserves auditors.
Conventional incremental deterministic approach ruled by guidelines of the Petroleum Resources Management System (PRMS-SPE/WPC/AAPG/SPEE) and the Securities Exchange Commission framework is quite restrictive to book for proved reserves of a field in an early development phase or few years of production history; in addition, 2P and 3P estimations are closely linked to current geological interpretation, and are not flexible to account for the whole uncertainties inherent to project at that level of maturity.
A new probabilistic approach has been proposed to provide consistency and confidence to conventional 1P, 2P and 3P deterministic estimations in recent gas condensate fields. The incorporation of strong descriptive statistics concepts in traditional probabilistic volumetric models, such as central limit theorem, dependency between model inputs (Bayes’ theorem), aggregation of volumes, as well as, the use of the standard error of mean, have given consistency to volumetric model outputs. These probabilistic calculations, adjusted to SEC definitions for proved reserves, and SPE standards, for 2P and 3P reserves categories, as well as, contingent resources, allows dealing with uncertainty inherent to a new field on development phase.
Integrated Economic Model for Evaluation and Optimization of Cyclic Steam Stimulation Projects
Authors: Frenette C. T. , Saeedi M. , Henke J. L. 
Published: June 2014

Abstract
The development of any hydrocarbon resource should be planned to maximize the net present value (NPV) of the asset to stakeholders, subject to any imposed constraints. For example, in the evaluation of a single oil or gas well on primary production, assuming no additional constraints, maximization of the NPV may be obtained by maximizing recoverable volume, production rate, and realized product price, while at the same time minimizing capital and operating costs, royalties, and taxes.
Maximization of the NPV of a thermal heavy oil project is significantly more involved than that of a single oil or gas well on primary production. This is due to the complex interplay of individual well production and injection profiles with field level production and injection constraints imposed by the central processing facility (CPF). In addition, for thermal heavy oil recovery methods such as cyclic steam stimulation (CSS), the scheduling of the production, soak, and injection cycles of the wells has a significant impact on the overall project NPV.
This paper presents the results of a study to maximize the NPV of a greenfield CSS project by incorporating a recently developed horizontal CSS analytical model with a new surface model and economic evaluation model developed specifically for this purpose. The integration of the sub-surface, surface, and economic models allows for the optimization of input parameters simultaneously across the models to maximize the NPV of the entire project.
The overall workflow and resulting optimized case will be summarized and discussed. In addition, stochastic simulation concepts are applied to the model to produce a distribution of results based on various input parameters. Stochastic simulations are already used in unconventional gas evaluations, and the authors believe that they will become an important tool to assist in the evaluation of thermal heavy oil projects due to the significant upfront capital cost and uncertainties associated with such developments.
The United Nations Framework Classification for Fossil Energy and Mineral Reserves and Resources – A Global Classification Standard for Energy Resources
Authors: Smith S. Tim , Ray Don 
Published: June 2014

Abstract
Governments, regulatory agencies, the petroleum and mining industries, the financial community, international organizations and professional societies worked together under the umbrella of the United Nations (UN) to develop a principles-based resource classification system -- United Nations Framework Classification for Fossil Energy and Mineral Reserves and Resources ("UNFC-2009") -- that is suitable for all extractive activities, whether mined as a solid or produced as a fluid through wells. The system is designed to be fully compliant with the SPE/WPC/AAPG/SPEE Petroleum Resources Management System (PRMS).
A key benefit of UNFC-2009 is that it provides a platform for harmonizing (mapping) classification systems in use around the world, and for translating volumes both within and between commodity sectors. Another benefit of UNFC-2009 is that it uses numbers instead of words for classification. Numbers transcend communication barriers created by differences in language and cultural references.
The system is designed as a three-dimensional framework where volumes are classified based on: (1) economic and social viability, (2) project status and feasibility, and (3) geological knowledge; however, it can also be represented in a practical, two-dimensional, abbreviated version. A task force formed by a UN expert group, the Expert Group on Resource Classification (EGRC), is studying the application of UNFC-2009 to classify injection projects. Work is also underway to extend the utility of UNFC-2009 to atomic energy and renewable resources. If successful, it will allow, for the first time, classifications and comparisons of projects across most energy sectors.
Cement Evaluation of Fibre-Reinforced Plastic Casing for EOR Observation
Authors: Edwards John , Kalyanaraman Ram Sunder , Renard Sandrine , Kuijk Robert Van , Froelich Benoit 
Published: June 2014

Abstract
Multiwell pilots are the final step of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) screening before the final investment decision. Data gathering is the primary purpose of any pilot, including data about the reservoir's response to the EOR method. A common technique for gathering data about spatial and temporal change in the reservoir resulting from injecting an EOR agent is time-lapse logging of an observation well positioned at some distance between the injectors and producers. Conventional observation wells are completed in cemented steel casing across the reservoir, and logged with nuclear measurements. However, fibre-reinforced plastic (FRP) casing is used instead of steel when a more sophisticated logging suite is required. For example, induction resistivity, crosswell resistivity, surface-to-borehole resistivity, and nuclear magnetic resonance are additional measurements that can be obtained if the casing material is nonconductive and nonmagnetic.
It is important to establish that the annulus of any cemented well is hydraulically isolating. This is critical for an observation well in an EOR pilot to ensure that the well is not short-circuiting the flow of injected fluids via annular channels. Cement evaluation of steel-cased wells has been a routine service since the 1950s, with four generations of tools developed to refine this measurement. There is less experience of cement evaluation behind FRP casing. An acoustic-based method of cement evaluation has been demonstrated in one FRP casing size and thickness with laboratory experiments in a water tank without cement. The variation in FRP casing manufacture and casing wall thickness means the result from this experiment is not universal. A field procedure has been developed to extend this initial experiment to any FRP casing sample, and any cement recipe, and to measure both cemented and free FRP casing. These field experiments will determine for a specific FRP casing sample and cement whether the acoustic-based method of cement evaluation will provide a valid cement log.
Dynamic Ranking of Multiple Realizations by Use of the Fast-Marching Method
Authors: Sharifi Mohammad , Kelkar Mohan , Bahar Asnul , Slettebo Tormod 
Published: June 2014

SummaryOne of the great challenges in reservoir modeling is to understand and quantify the dynamic uncertainties in geocellular models. Uncertainties in static parameters are easy to identify in geocellular models. Unfortunately, those models contain at least one to two orders of magnitude more gridblocks than typical simulation models. This means that, without significant upscaling, the dynamic uncertainties in these models cannot easily be assessed. Further, if we would like to select only a few geological models that can be carried forward for future performance predictions, we do not have an objective method of selecting the models that can properly capture the dynamic-uncertainty range.One possible solution is to use a faster simulation technique, such as streamline simulation. However, even streamline simulation requires solving a pressure equation at least once. For highly heterogeneous reservoir models with multimillion cells and in the presence of capillary effects or an expansion-dominated process, this can pose a challenge. If we use static permeability thresholds to determine the connected volume, it would not account for how tortuous the connection is between the connected gridblock and the well location.In this paper, we use the fast-marching method (FMM) as a computationally efficient method for calculating the pressure/front propagation time on the basis of reservoir properties. This method is based on solving the Eikonal equation by use of upwind finite-difference approximation. In this method, pressure/front location (radius of investigation) can be calculated as a function of time without running any flow simulation. We demonstrate that dynamically connected volume based on pressure-propagation time is a very good proxy for ultimate recovery from a well in the primary-depletion process. With a predetermined threshold propagation time, a large number of geocellular models can be ranked. FMM can be scaled almost linearly with the number of gridblocks in the model. Two main advantages of this ranking method compared with other methods are that this method determines dynamic connectivity in the reservoir and that it is computationally much more efficient. We demonstrate the validity of the method by comparing ranking of multiple geocellular realizations (on Cartesian grid with heterogeneous and anisotropic permeability) by use of FMM with ranking from flow simulation. This method will allow us to select the geological models that can truly capture the range of dynamic uncertainty very efficiently.
Steam Chamber Development and Production Performance Prediction of Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage
Authors: Wei Shaolei , Cheng Linsong , Huang Shijun , Huang Wenjun 
Published: June 2014

Abstract
Steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) is an effective technology to develop heavy oil reservoir, yet with large energy consumption and intense greenhouse emission. Therefore, it is important to predict the steam chamber development process and production performance of SAGD process. In early research, a lot of research has been conducted on the prediction of SAGD productivity analytically under some simplification. According to tens of numerical reservoir simulation results with STARS, we find that oil production rate is greatly linked to the steam injection rate. As to our knowledge, few studies have been published to build a relationship between them. In this paper, we propose a new analytical model to predict steam chamber development process and SAGD production performance under constant steam injection rate simultaneously. On the basis of previous numerical and experimental research, we assume that the steam chamber shape is a combination of two symmetrical parabolas or an inverted triangle. The oil production rate is expressed by the steam chamber expansion rate as a function of reservoir properties and injection parameters. An energy balance equation is employed to connect the steam expansion rate and heat loss rate to surrounding formation. Comparisons have been made between the new model results and STARS results for a specific super-heavy oil reservoir case in Canada and similarity is observed with the parabola-shape assumption. With the new proposed model, production performance, such as oil production rate, water cut and steam oil ratio, can be predicted.