Improved risk assessment model using the cloud theory of the existing tunnel in foundation pit construction environment
Authors: Xu Tian , Song Zhanping , Fan Shengyuan , Guo Desai 
Published: February 2025

PurposeThe assessment of risk to existing tunnels within the context of pit construction is influenced by a multitude of factors. The conventional fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) method may lack precision due to its inability to incorporate the inherent randomness associated with numerous risk factors. To enhance the precision of risk evaluation for existing tunnels, this research introduces an improved FAHP approach grounded in cloud modeling theory.Design/methodology/approachWe developed a risk assessment index system for existing tunnels, categorizing risk sources into three areas: hydrogeological conditions, foundation pit construction and tunnel structural bearing capacity. The system includes 11 evaluation indicators linked to these sources, with defined risk level thresholds for each. Using the cloud model, we calculated the membership degree of these indicators to risk levels, replacing traditional membership function formulas. The cloud model’s three digital characteristics (Ex, En and He) account for the randomness and ambiguity between qualitative descriptions and quantitative values, enhancing assessment accuracy. We applied hierarchical analysis to determine the weights of each risk factor and combined these with the membership degrees to evaluate overall risk levels. Engineering applications and model comparisons confirmed the method’s reliability, while sensitivity analysis identified key risk indicators affecting evaluation outcomes, allowing for targeted risk control measures to safeguard existing tunnels during foundation pit construction.FindingsThe evaluation results of engineering applications show the same results with the traditional FAHP method, which proves the reliability of the improved method. Furthermore, when comparing the evaluation result vectors between the two methods, it is observed that the outcomes of the improved method are more concentrated on a specific risk level compared to the traditional FAHP. This concentration mitigates the potential for bias in the evaluation results, thereby enhancing their accuracy. Through sensitivity analysis, four indicators were identified to have a significant influence on the evaluation result. After implementing targeted risk control measures, a downgrade in risk level to III was revealed. This aligns with the actual construction circumstances, as no safety incidents occurred in the Line 1 metro tunnel throughout the duration of the pit construction. This confirms the efficacy of the measures taken based on the evaluation results.Originality/valueThe novelty of this study is demonstrated through two key advancements. First, in response to the lack of a mature evaluation index system for risk assessment of existing tunnels during pit construction, the authors have meticulously curated a comprehensive risk evaluation index system. This system provides a valuable reference for the selection of appropriate risk evaluation indices in similar projects. Second, building upon the established index system, the study introduces a cloud model FAHP risk evaluation method. This method automates the generation of the membership degree between indicators and risk levels. The improved method has good reliability for the risk evaluation of existing tunnels, and it can provide decision-making reference for related studies when they carry out risk evaluations of similar projects.