bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
An Integrated Portfolio Management Approach for More Effective Business Planning
Authors: Back Michael , Kirk Graham 
Published: September 2012

Abstract
Portfolio management has become an important aspect of oil and gas business planning to support the efficient allocation of capital. As oil and gas becomes more difficult and expensive to find, petroleum companies are looking to portfolio management for providing both a more streamlined business planning process and an advantage over the competition in the industry. However, portfolio management has traditionally been deployed at a corporate planning level and has often missed the opportunity to consider the operational reality at the asset team or regional level. Each capital investment decision must be consistently evaluated for its ability to contribute to the corporate strategy while maximizing the usage of available resources. The aim of this study is to show how an integrated portfolio management solution can provide benefits when used at every stage in the asset development life cycle (from exploration through to production and abandonment) as well as at different levels in the corporation (asset teams through business units to corporate planning) to drive more efficient and effective business planning.
This robust, integrated approach to portfolio management will drive more efficient investment across the corporation. The methodology can be applied to business planning processes at the asset team, the business unit, and at the corporate level within any petroleum company.
The first section provides the best practices in maturing opportunities as producing, development, and exploration properties are evaluated consistently in the context of the company portfolio. The second section of the study covers some specific examples in which the asset development plan is put together to create typical drilling and rig schedules with operational issues such as dependencies between assets and facilities resource constraints. The third section looks at various portfolio management techniques to define the long-term corporate strategy and bridge it with short-term operational constraints to determine an optimized portfolio.
The study concludes with specific recommendations on integrated portfolio management practices at every level in the organization to ensure that the corporate strategy is aligned with available resources. This integrated approach to portfolio management will allow corporate planners to balance long-term strategic goals with operational constraints from the business unit down to the asset team. It will result in a more balanced and diversified portfolio and drive better decisions in the capital allocation process.
The Role of Stranded Gas from Central Asia, Russia, Southeast Asia, and Australia in Meeting Asia's Future Demand for Gas Imports
Authors: Attanasi Emil D. , Freeman Philip A. 
Published: September 2012

Abstract
Demand for natural gas is increasing more rapidly than anticipated in Far East markets because (1) China has modified its policies in order to increase reliance on gas, in part to mitigate the growth in its coal consumption (which now stand at almost half of world coal production), (2) Japan has announced its intention to eventually shutdown its nuclear power industry, and (3) India, which currently has more than 400 million people without electricity, desires to accelerate electrification. This analysis investigates the potential role of stranded gas from Central Asia, Russia, Southeast Asia, and Australia in meeting Asia's future demand for gas imports. It initially surveys the discovered or known gas in stranded gas accumulations in Central Asia, Russia, Australia, Indonesia, and Malaysia. It then examines the primary gas import markets of China, India, Japan, and South Korea by describing energy use, gas demand trends, and domestic gas supplies to establish boundaries that encompass the wide variation in gas import demands in these markets during the two decades following 2020.
Then the cost of developing and delivering gas through overland pipelines from selected stranded gas fields in Central Asia and Russia to China is examined. Analysis shows that for the Shanghai market in China, the costs of developing and delivering Russia's stranded gas from the petroleum provinces of eastern Siberia are competitive with costs estimated for stranded gas from Central Asia. However, for the Western Siberian Basin, delivered gas costs are at least 3 US dollars per thousand cubic feet (USD/Mcf) higher than delivered gas from Central Asia.
The extraction and transport costs to a liquefaction plant for gas from stranded gas fields located in Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the basins of eastern Siberia are then evaluated. The resource cost functions presented show development and extraction costs as a function of the volume of stranded gas developed for each country. The analysis demonstrates that, although the Russian fields in areas of eastern Siberia are large with relatively low extraction costs, distances to a potential liquefaction plant at Vladivostok make them initially the high cost suppliers of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market. For the LNG markets examined, Australia and Malaysia are initially the lowest cost suppliers. For the Shanghai market, a comparison of the cost of supplying gas by pipeline with the cost of supplying LNG shows that the pipeline costs from areas of eastern Siberia and Central Asia are generally lower than delivered cost of gas as LNG from the LNG supply sources considered.
Integrating the Subsurface and the Commercial: A New Look at Monte Carlo and Decision Tree Analysis
Authors: Schulze J. H. , Walker J. N. , Burkholder M. K. 
Published: September 2012

Abstract
The petroleum industry has always struggled with the "disconnect" between modeling subsurface uncertainties and integrating them into full robust economic analysis. Why? Because there is inconsistent use of probabilistic analysis within asset teams and functions, using disparate software tools, few of which can communicate with each other. Depending upon the project and the company, commercial analysts may use single cases, scenarios, decision trees, best estimates or risk weighted analysis combined into a composite case. Few, if any, have moved their project analysis to a fully integrated stochastic approach. Again, why? Because an "all singing all dancing" subsurface through commercial model does not exist. Different functions in an asset team use different software tools, few of which communicate with each other. In addition, there are few software applications which support fully stochastic analyses, which further complicates the task.
As a result, many subsurface uncertainty characterizations get reduced to a few cases which are passed to the commercial analyst. Wouldn't it be best to integrate both workflows? This would allow the subsurface teams to preserve their characterizations while the commercial analysts interact with the reservoir distributions in their native states. Have the commercial analysts run their calculations using their models and their decision making tools so they can clearly see when, where and how decisions may change based upon all uncertainties. It is more than modeling with precision; it is about knowing when we should be changing our minds.
This paper is designed to stir some thoughts in this area and showcase an example where stochastic analysis and decision trees are combined in three different ways within a single case to provide proof to the adage "the whole is greater than the sum of the parts". A live working example will demonstrate how correlations, full economic analysis and value of information can best be achieved by combining forces. The aim is to demonstrate the power of new ideas and workflows which can be implemented and used today in a practical way.
Fiscal System Modeling Framework
Authors: Coddou Ginny , Hammond Robert , Laaveg Marius , Ogunyomi Babafemi , Raeder Asbjørn , Svensson Malin , Xu Peng 
Published: September 2012

Abstract
Fiscal systems used by various governments in the oil and gas industry are integral to the economic analysis of projects. Complete economic models which aid decision making should incorporate the terms of these fiscal systems. The terms vary by country and frequently by the resource location; onshore, offshore or deepwater, and by resource type; gas, oil, conventional, or unconventional. Despite the variability of these specifics, consistencies exist within the main types of contractual structures. Our work has focused on developing these consistencies into a modeling framework addressing royalty and tax regimes, leasing contracts and production sharing agreements with sufficient flexibility to account for system-specific terms, easily, quickly, and with a high degree of customizability.
We describe an approach to modeling fiscal systems implemented with a modular framework based on the 3 main types of resource development contracts. The framework has 5 design goals: 1. decrease modeling time by an order of magnitude, 2. increase model transparency to enable understanding, 3. provide an auditable environment that can easily be used by both modelers and users, 4. make models adaptable to global changes by implementing modules common to all models, 5. make models accessible and extensible by users without significant programming knowledge.
In addition to these design goals, the framework must satisfy the requirements of its ultimate purpose: to support and inform effective decision making in contractual negotiations and reveal with accuracy the economic impact of the controlling fiscal regime. It is designed to simplify constructing the structure of the model, and to be individually customizable to specific terms. This approach has been attempted by a number of companies with some success, and this is the first time of which we are aware that work is being published on the subject.
Fiscal regimes are a key feature of the international petroleum business, and an objective, transparent, and trusted model is integral to quickly generating insight. A good implementation of such a framework can drastically reduce model development time and highlight critical terms for profitable outcomes, freeing stakeholders to focus on decision making and implementation strategies rather than building models.
The Economics of Gas in North America: Portfolio vs. Performance under Cyclical Prices
Authors: Ziff Paul 
Published: September 2012

Abstract
This paper examines corporate economic and financial performance in the natural gas producing industry and assesses whether performance is a function of portfolio (types and location of gas supplies) or efficiencies in execution in capital spending and operations.
This issue is relevant for North American gas producers, related service companies, and government fiscal policy that are all trying to deal with the current low gas price environment, and the future.
North American gas producing companies assemble their portfolios from 2 categories of gas supply: Conventional and Unconventional (including Tight Gas, Coal Bed Methane, and Shale Gas). Producers economic performance is very different depending on the level of gas prices, so 2 price cases will be examined - ‘normal’ price ($5+/Mcf), and ‘depressed’ price (&lt;$3/Mcf), comparing Conventional & Unconventional gas. In the Normal Price case, full cycle costs are the most relevant performance measure. The largest component, Capital Spending Efficiency, drives full cycle economic results and the return available to the producer. We show the wide range of company performance, such as Finding & Development Cost for gas only by company, and examples of full cycle cost for Unconventional vs. Conventional plays. Some play types are more economic (portfolio selection) and some companies are more efficient than others (Execution). The Depressed Price (current) world is characterized by a gas price well below Full Cycle Economics - there is no return, though some cash is generated. Operating Costs are most important. The range of average Operating Costs between types of gas fields in Western Canada and the Gulf of Mexico Shelf is shown. There is a large variation in operating cost among similar fields.
Both portfolio and execution are critical to surviving today's gas markets. It is important to know full cycle costs by strategy (and gas basin analysis) to achieve a target portfolio and strong performance in CapEx and Operations is critical. Other key factors to enhance revenue are: the impact of natural gas liquids on gas economics and the effect of hedging on the price achieved.
Natural gas prices have plummeted to decade lows, threatening gas activity. An understanding of industry economics is critical to forecasting and maybe even surviving!
Long-Term Economic Viability of Production from Unconventional Liquids-Rich Reservoirs: The Case of Bakken Field
Authors: Ozkan Sarp , Kurtoglu Basak , Ozkan Erdal 
Published: September 2012

Abstract
Long-term economic viability of unconventional reservoirs is evaluated from the profit-maximizing perspective of a producing company. The case of the liquids-rich production from the Bakken field is considered as a representative of unconventional resources. A profit-margin optimization model is constructed for a company to meet the demand it faces from a stock of conventional and unconventional resources given different sets of exogenously determined prices. The model is parameterized using the different production-decline rates of the two sources, physical and economic exhaustibility of the resources, and the ever-increasing marginal cost of adding conventional resources into the company portfolio. The optimal extraction path of oil from the conventional and unconventional reservoirs is assessed and the long-term economic consequence of keeping the unconventional resource in the ground for different oil-price scenarios is predicted. The model reveals the appropriate composition of a portfolio of conventional and unconventional resources. In the case of a high-price scenario, the optimal efficient extraction path is the pursuit of additional conventional resources before utilizing unconventionals to meet the demand. For the reference-price scenario, the decline of the conventional reserves should be substituted with unconventionals from the beginning. The profitability of the EOR applications in unconventional reservoirs and when they should be implemented are also determined. Contrary to common expectation, it is shown that the EOR technology is more justifiable in the case of a lower price forecast.
Basic Petroleum Accounting for Petroleum Engineers
Authors: Olds Dan 
Published: September 2012

Abstract
Oil and gas reserves are the assets that create value for oil and gas companies. While engineers are generally aware of the importance of reserve calculations, many do not know exactly how their work impacts the financial results. Oil and gas reserves, along with the book value, determine the depletion rate which impacts the net income of the company. This paper describes the general accounting process as it relates to reserves, the depletion, depreciation, and amortization (DD&A) process under Full Cost and Successful Efforts accounting methods, and its impact on net income.
An Efficient Decision Framework for Optimizing Tight and Unconventional Resources
Authors: Wehunt C. D. , Hrachovy M. J. , Walker S. C. , Padmakar A. S. 
Published: September 2012

Abstract
Making an efficient and wise concept selection decision—quickly selecting the right project—is often of equal or greater importance than later design and execution tasks for determining project success. Value lost from a suboptimal concept selection decision or from a needlessly prolonged decision process is independent of value generation opportunities during design and execution, and cannot be recouped during later project phases. This paper presents decision framework and production forecasting processes that complement one another, and promote an efficient and high-quality concept selection decision for tight or unconventional resources. The method is for both oil and gas resources, and is especially useful for assessing and developing large contiguous tracts.
High quality production forecasting is very important during concept selection. Better quality concept selection decisions will also result if the alternative conceptual plans are equally optimized when the decision is made, and our assessment process facilitates both accurate forecasting and equal optimization of the various development alternatives. Our method includes symmetry element reservoir simulation models and an efficient economic spreadsheet model with an optimizer. The sector simulation models run fast and can evaluate many cases, but they still explicitly address the physical effects relevant to flow in porous media with vertical, transverse, hydraulic fractures intersecting horizontal wells. The decision framework is structured so that some decisions are independent of the simulation model, and those decisions are rapidly optimized within the economic model. We introduce a fracture efficiency factor which may be important for modeling the diminished performance observed as the number of stages increase in multi-fractured horizontal wells. This fracture efficiency factor may also be an important discriminator of performance between wells fractured using aqueous vs. non-aqueous fracturing fluids. We also show how to use meaningful constraints with a symmetry element model to ensure that the economic forecasts are both realistic and achievable.
Exploration Assets Evaluation: A Practical Way of Conforming Deterministic to Stochastic Mindsets
Authors: Surovtsev Dmitry , Hole Per Audun , Meulengracht Chresten 
Published: September 2012

Abstract
Many integrated evaluation teams use stochastic simulation only to estimate cumulative probability resource curves for exploration assets. Three deterministic cases are then anchored to P90-P50-P10 points of the curve and serve as the basis for in-depth engineering and exploration economics modelling. As illustrated by Delta prospect, discrepancies between resulting NPV approximations and true prospect NPV may be material.
Since it may take another generation to break the wall between deterministic and stochastic ways of exploration project assessment, this paper suggests an interim workflow method to reconcile both mindsets. The method builds on the ability of modern software to pre-estimate the shape of NPV probability distribution curve. Once the shape is available, a discretization shortcut is applied to obtain relevant NPV distribution fractiles and weights. Equivalent resource fractiles are then ‘reverse-fitted’ using the stochastic value cloud. Finally, discrete cases reflecting such calculated resource fractiles are handed over for deterministic engineering and valuation. With the illustrative Delta prospect, application of the method resulted in picking P70-P32-P16 resource fractiles to ensure the best fit to true (stochastic) NPV.
The proposed method provides a practical way to commingle the strongest features of simulation, discretization and in-depth engineering approaches. It is supported by Full Cycle tools embedded in industry standard software for probabilistic risk, resource and value assessments.
Coalbed Methane Resources Evaluation Methodology: An Integrated Case Study in Former Coal Mining Basins in France
Authors: Lefebvre Ch. , Alvis Mariana , De Groen V. , Delamarre S. , Roy G. 
Published: September 2012

Abstract
This paper presents the methodology and technical solutions used to perform an evaluation of Gas Resources for two coalbed methane (CBM) projects in former coal mining basins in the North and East of France. These assessed gas volumes constitute one of Europe's important reported coal bed methane's resources. Successful gas flow rates were also obtained from a horizontal well drilled in coal strata. CBM resources classification principles as described in the Guidelines for Application of the Petroleum Resources Management System (PRMS - November 2011) were applied. The main issues encountered were the allocation and categorization of the 1C/2C/3C Contingent Resources and Low/Best/High Prospective Resources. Dealing rigorously with uncertainties inherent to the type of data used was an essential part of the study.
A fully integrated workflow was used to undertake the resources evaluation. The Gas Initially in Place (GIIP) estimation is based on 3D geological models. Project specific criteria were applied to derive the final volume estimation in the context of CBM resources in the vicinity of former coal mines. Potential recovery factor calculations followed 3 different approaches: Langmuir isotherm curves, material balance based on mining data and 3-D dynamic simulation based on pilot horizontal well results. Due to large uncertainties existing on various parameters, a sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate their relative impact on production during the dynamic simulation, using experimental design techniques. The final resources calculations and their respective categorization were based on a probabilistic methodology using Monte Carlo simulations with specific distributions for all parameters used at each stage of the workflow (net coal, gas content, coal density, level of coal undersaturation, permeability and recovery factor distributions).
Key parameters were identified as critical with a large impact on the final assessment (gas content, level of undersaturation, shape of Langmuir isotherm curve, abandonment pressure). The elaborated workflow allowed the classification in Contingent and Prospective resources as well as evaluating their respective range of uncertainty which was required to complete the evaluation.
Modeling Learning in Resource Play Asessment: An Integrated Approach for Decision Support
Authors: Stabell Charles 
Published: September 2012

Abstract
Traditional stochastic modeling efforts for exploration project assessment start from a model that incorporates estimates of uncertainties and risks and then simulates how the company (decision subject) acts as the risks and uncertainties are resolved (outcomes revealed). In resource play assessment the model also often includes learning of the experience curve (learning-bydoing) type: there is a model component that specifies how uncertain well costs and uncertain drilling durations are reduced as a function of the cumulative number of wells that have been drilled.
This paper presents a framework for assessment of recovered resources and economic value that also models statistical learning. The framework includes an explicit model of how prior uncertainties are transformed into posterior uncertainties and simulates decisions that are based on the posterior uncertainties -- and not on full certainty. The learning application is shale gas resource play assessment and the learning is linked to pilot production. The work follows up on earlier work (Haskett & Brown, 2005) that recognizes that analogs used to define well performance provide an envelope (a population) of well curves. The new integrated analytics presented in this paper use the pilot production to constrain the prior distribution and make decisions based on the resulting posterior well performance (EUR/well) curves. Modeling learning provides a basis for a more realistic simulation that captures not only the potential for more or less effective decisions, but also can be used to assess the value of information. Application is illustrated with an assessment that is used to support the decision to enter a shale gas resource play.