Wizards under Uncertainty: Cognitive Biases, Threat Assessment, and Misjudgments in Policy Making
Authors: NORMAN EMMA R. , DELFIN RAFAEL 
Published: October 2015

This article explores how several subtle issues concerning political judgments raised in Harry Potter are reflected in contemporary policy making. Using Rowling's story as a starting point, we show that findings on systematic errors in judgment—or cognitive biases—studied in psychology and behavioral economics can lead to repeated misjudgments that obstruct sound policy prioritization. We examine several cognitive principles that (1) influence how decisions are made under conditions of uncertainty and (2) explain why some predictions underpinning those decisions can run quite seriously awry. These operate in both Harry's fictional world and the current policy approaches to climate change, counterterrorism, obesity, and immigration. We emphasize the need for policy makers and citizens to be more acutely aware of the kinds and scope of repeated errors in judgment that rational choice models cannot fully explain or predict. Finally, we note how cognitive bias might be potentially reduced in certain collective decision‐making strategies.Related Articles in this Politics & Policy SymposiumMena Alemán. 2012. “Editor's Introduction to the Symposium: Politics, Policy, and Harry Potter.”Politics & Policy 40 (3).http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2012.00355.x/abstractNorman. 2012. “International Boggarts: Carl Schmitt, Harry Potter, and the Transfiguration of Identity and Violence.”Politics & Policy 40 (3).http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2012.00357.x/abstractGrijalva. 2012. “Deconstructing the Grand Narrative in Harry Potter: Inclusion/Exclusion and Discriminatory Policies in Fiction and Practice.”Politics & Policy 40 (3).http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2012.00358.x/abstractRelated MediaFilm Clips: Gilbert. 2007a. “Dan Gilbert.”PopTech.http://poptech.org/popcasts/dan_gilbert__poptech_2007Gilbert. 2010. “Global Warming and Psychology.”Harvard Thinks Big 2010. http://vimeo.com/10324258Kahneman. 2009. “Is there a Demand for Rationality?”http://vimeo.com/29660719Course Syllabus:“Harry Potter and International Politics: Identity, Violence, and Social Control.”http://ipsonet.org/data/files/psoproceedings16.pdf (7‐18)Este artículo explora cómo ciertos temas relacionados con las decisiones políticas en Harry Potter se reflejan en la toma de decisiones políticas. Usando las historias de Rowling como punto de partida, mostramos cómo los errores sistemáticos en la toma de decisiones—o errores cognitivos—estudiados en psicología y economía conductual pueden provocar errores sistemáticos que impiden una priorización adecuada en políticas públicas. Examinamos principios cognitivos que (1) influencian la toma de decisiones bajo incertidumbre; y (2) explican por qué las predicciones usadas para tomar esas decisiones pueden estar severamente equivocadas. Estos errores intervienen en el mundo ficticio de Harry y en los enfoques políticos actuales hacia el cambio climático, la prevención del terrorismo, obesidad e inmigración. Resaltamos la obligación de los legisladores y ciudadanos de estar más conscientes de estos errores sistemáticos que las teorías de racionalidad no logran explicar o predecir. Por último, sugerimos como estos errores pueden ser reducidos en ciertos contextos de toma de decisiones grupales.