bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
More Frequent, Longer, and Hotter Heat Waves for Australia in the Twenty-First Century
Authors: Cowan Tim , Purich Ariaan , Perkins Sarah , Pezza Alexandre , Boschat Ghyslaine , Sadler Katherine 
Published: May 2014

Abstract
Extremes such as summer heat waves and winter warm spells have a significant impact on the climate of Australia, with many regions experiencing an increase in the frequency and duration of these events since the mid-twentieth century. With the availability of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models, projected changes in heat waves and warm spells are investigated across Australia for two future emission scenarios. For the historical period encompassing the late twentieth century (1950–2005) an ensemble mean of 15 models is able to broadly capture the observed spatial distribution in the frequency and duration of summer heat waves, despite overestimating these metrics along coastal regions. The models achieve a better comparison to observations in their simulation of the temperature anomaly of the hottest heat waves. By the end of the twenty-first century, the model ensemble mean projects the largest increase in summer heat wave frequency and duration to occur across northern tropical regions, while projecting an increase of ~3°C in the maximum temperature of the hottest southern Australian heat waves. Model consensus suggests that future winter warm spells will increase in frequency and duration at a greater rate than summer heat waves, and that the hottest events will become increasingly hotter for both seasons by century’s end. Even when referenced to a warming mean state, increases in the temperature of the hottest events are projected for southern Australia. Results also suggest that following a strong mitigation pathway in the future is more effective in reducing the frequency and duration of heat waves and warm spells in the southern regions compared to the northern tropical regions.
Global Patterns of Diapycnal Mixing from Measurements of the Turbulent Dissipation Rate
Authors: Waterhouse Amy F. , MacKinnon Jennifer A. , Nash Jonathan D. , Alford Matthew H. , Kunze Eric , Simmons Harper L. , Polzin Kurt L. , St. Laurent Louis C. , Sun Oliver M. , Pinkel Robert , Talley Lynne D. , Whalen Caitlin B. , Huussen Tycho N. , Carter Glenn S. , Fer Ilker , Waterman Stephanie , Naveira Garabato Alberto C. , Sanford Thomas B. , Lee Craig M. 
Published: May 2014

Abstract
The authors present inferences of diapycnal diffusivity from a compilation of over 5200 microstructure profiles. As microstructure observations are sparse, these are supplemented with indirect measurements of mixing obtained from (i) Thorpe-scale overturns from moored profilers, a finescale parameterization applied to (ii) shipboard observations of upper-ocean shear, (iii) strain as measured by profiling floats, and (iv) shear and strain from full-depth lowered acoustic Doppler current profilers (LADCP) and CTD profiles. Vertical profiles of the turbulent dissipation rate are bottom enhanced over rough topography and abrupt, isolated ridges. The geography of depth-integrated dissipation rate shows spatial variability related to internal wave generation, suggesting one direct energy pathway to turbulence. The global-averaged diapycnal diffusivity below 1000-m depth is O(10−4) m2 s−1 and above 1000-m depth is O(10−5) m2 s−1. The compiled microstructure observations sample a wide range of internal wave power inputs and topographic roughness, providing a dataset with which to estimate a representative global-averaged dissipation rate and diffusivity. However, there is strong regional variability in the ratio between local internal wave generation and local dissipation. In some regions, the depth-integrated dissipation rate is comparable to the estimated power input into the local internal wave field. In a few cases, more internal wave power is dissipated than locally generated, suggesting remote internal wave sources. However, at most locations the total power lost through turbulent dissipation is less than the input into the local internal wave field. This suggests dissipation elsewhere, such as continental margins.
Mesoscale Convective Systems in Relation to African and Tropical Easterly Jets
Authors: Besson L. , Lemaître Y. 
Published: May 2014

AbstractThis paper documents the interaction processes between mesoscale convective systems (MCS), the tropical easterly jet (TEJ), and the African easterly jet (AEJ) over West Africa during the monsoon peak of 2006 observed during the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (AMMA) project. The results highlight the importance of the cloud system localization relative to the jets in order to explain their duration and life cycle. A systematical study reveals that intense and long-lived MCSs correspond to a particular pattern where clouds associated with deep convection are located in entrance regions of TEJ and in exit regions of AEJ. A case study on a particularly well-documented convective event characterizes this link and infers the importance of jet streaks in promoting areas of divergence, favoring the persistence of MCSs.
Eye and Eyewall Traits as Determined with the NOAA WP-3D Lower-Fuselage Radar
Authors: Barnes Carl E. , Barnes Gary M. 
Published: May 2014

AbstractEye and eyewall traits were ascertained for 209 images from 37 tropical cyclones (TCs) using the lower-fuselage 5.6-cm radar, aboard the two National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration WP-3Ds. These TCs were almost entirely from the Atlantic basin and were sampled from 1997 to 2012. For the eye these traits included area, maximum diameter, and roundness; for the eyewall the traits included area, completeness, maximum width, maximum reflectivity value and location, number of local reflectivity maxima, and mean rain rate. These variables were compared to TC intensity and motion characteristics from the best-track dataset, and environmental characteristics from the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme.Interrelationships between eyewall features revealed that eyewall reflectivity features became more homogeneous as eye and eyewall areas shrank, and maximum reflectivity and rain rate increased as the eyewall became wider and more complete. As the TC intensified, the eye area decreased, while the eyewall area increased due to increasing completeness and width. Rain rate was also found to be higher for faster-moving TCs. Stronger vertical shear of the horizontal wind was found to be associated with more asymmetric eyewall reflectivity. The maximum reflectivity value occurred most often on the downshear side of the eyewall, and to the right of the storm motion, verifying prior research. There were no relationships found between the reflectivity and sea surface temperature or environmental relative humidity. A schematic incorporating typical eye and eyewall traits is presented.
A Parameter for Forecasting Tornadoes Associated with Landfalling Tropical Cyclones
Authors: Onderlinde Matthew J. , Fuelberg Henry E. 
Published: May 2014

Abstract
The authors develop a statistical guidance product, the tropical cyclone tornado parameter (TCTP), for forecasting the probability of one or more tornadoes during a 6-h period that are associated with landfalling tropical cyclones affecting the coastal Gulf of Mexico and the southern Atlantic coast. TCTP is designed to aid forecasters in a time-limited environment. TCTP provides a “quick look” at regions where forecasters can then conduct detailed analyses. The pool of potential predictors included tornado reports and tropical cyclone data between 2000 and 2008, as well as storm environmental parameters. The original pool of 28 potential predictors is reduced to six using stepwise regression and logistic regression. These six predictors are 0–3-km wind shear, 0–3-km storm relative helicity, azimuth angle of the tornado report from the tropical cyclone, distance from the cyclone’s center, time of day, and 950–1000-hPa convective available potential energy. Mean Brier scores and Brier skill scores are computed for the entire TCTP-dependent dataset and for corresponding forecasts produced by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). TCTP then is applied to four individual cyclone cases to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the parameter and compare its performance with SPC forecasts. Results show that TCTP has skill at identifying regions of tornado potential. However, tornadoes in some tropical systems are overpredicted, but underpredicted in others. TCTP 6-h forecast periods provide slightly poorer statistical performance than the 1-day tornado probability forecasts from SPC, probably because the SPC product includes forecaster guidance and because their forecasts are valid for longer periods (24 h).
Neuroprogression in schizophrenia: Pathways underpinning clinical staging and therapeutic corollaries
Authors: Davis Justin , Moylan Steven , Harvey Brian H , Maes Michael , Berk Michael 
Published: May 2014

Objective: Whilst dopaminergic dysfunction remains a necessary component involved in the pathogenesis of schizophrenia, our current pharmacological armoury of dopamine antagonists does little to control the negative symptoms of schizophrenia. This suggests other pathological processes must be implicated. This paper aims to elaborate on such theories. Methods: Data for this review were sourced from the electronic database PUBMED, and was not limited by language or date of publication. Results: It has been suggested that multiple ‘hits’ may be required to unveil the clinical syndrome in susceptible individuals. Such hits potentially first occur in utero, leading to neuronal disruption, epigenetic changes and the establishment of an abnormal inflammatory response. The development of schizophrenia may therefore potentially be viewed as a neuroprogressive response to these early stressors, driven on by changes in tryptophan catabolite (TRYCAT) metabolism, reactive oxygen species handling and N-methyl d-aspartate (NMDA) circuitry. Given the potential for such progression over time, it is prudent to explore the new treatment strategies which may be implemented before such changes become established. Conclusions: Outside of the dopaminergic model, the potential pathogenesis of schizophrenia has yet to be fully elucidated, but common themes include neuropil shrinkage, the development of abnormal neuronal circuitry, and a chronic inflammatory state which further disrupts neuronal function. Whilst some early non-dopaminergic treatments show promise, none have yet to be fully studied in appropriately structured randomized controlled trials and they remain little more than potential attractive targets.
Predicting oral health-related behaviour in the parents of preschool children: An application of the Theory of Planned Behaviour
Authors: Van den Branden Sigrid , Van den Broucke Stephan , Leroy Roos , Declerck Dominique , Hoppenbrouwers Karel 
Published: May 2014

Objective: This study aimed to test the predictive validity of the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) when applied to the oral health-related behaviours of parents towards their preschool children in a cross-sectional and prospective design over a 5-year interval. Methods: Data for this study were obtained from parents of 1,057 children born between October 2003 and July 2004 in two regions in Flanders, Belgium. Three behaviours related to oral health (dietary habits, oral hygiene habits, dental attendance) as well as their psychological determinants based on the TPB (attitude, subjective norms, perceived behavioural control (PBC), intention) were measured using validated self-report questionnaires when the children were 0 (2003–2004), 3 (February–June 2007) and 5 years old (March–June 2009). Results: Multiple linear regression analyses indicated cross-sectionally that the contribution of attitudes, subjective norms and PBC towards intention, and of intention and PBC towards the frequency of consumption of sugared snacks and drinks, tooth brushing and dental attendance was significant ( p < .001). The combined determinants explained 27%–37% of the variance in intentions and 7%–39% of the variance in the behaviours. Across time, only parental PBC as measured at birth could significantly predict dietary and oral hygiene behaviours at children’s ages 3 and 5 years. Conclusion: This study supports the validity of the TPB to predict intentions and oral health-related behaviours of parents of preschool children. Interventions should aim to improve parental attitudes towards diet and dental attendance, and their PBC towards tooth brushing.
Optical Correction Reduces Simulator Sickness in a Driving Environment
Authors: Bridgeman Bruce , Blaesi Sabine , Campusano Richard 
Published: May 2014

Objective: We propose and test a method to reduce simulator sickness. Background: Prolonged work in driving simulators often leads to nausea and other symptoms summarized as simulator sickness. Visual/vestibular mismatches are a frequently addressed cause; we investigate another possibility, mismatch between actual distance to a screen and depicted distances in the simulator’s graphics. Method: Drivers negotiated a figure-8 course in a photorealistic simulator. They reported discomfort and vection every 10 minutes up to 40 min. A correction group wore optometric test frames with +1.75 diopter lenses and prisms to converge parallel lines of sight on a screen 56 cm from the driver’s eyes, preserving the normal accommodative convergence–to–accommodation (AC/A) ratio. A control group wore neutral lenses in the same test frames. In other experiments head tilt simulated vestibular experience on curves. Results: The optical correction significantly reduced simulator sickness measured on a 10-point discomfort scale, where 1 is no problem and 10 is about to vomit. Vection ratings were similar for correction and control groups. Some drivers failed to complete the course because of high discomfort ratings, crashes, or other causes. Head tilt in the direction opposite each curve while wearing the correction did not affect discomfort, while tilt in the same direction as each curve made simulator sickness worse. Conclusion: Optical corrections can significantly reduce simulator sickness, though they do not eliminate it. Head tilt while driving is not recommended. Application: Simple optical corrections in spectacle frames, easily purchased at any optical facility, should be used in screen-based driving simulators. Strength of the correction depends on distance from the driver to the screen.
Innovations in water governance: the importance of time
Authors: Eshuis Jasper , van Buuren Arwin 
Published: May 2014

Time is often considered to be an inert background against which governance processes evolve. Instead, this article approaches time as a factor that influences the development of innovation processes in water governance. Drawing on two Dutch cases, we analyse perceptions of time and the management of time. Public managers manage time by trying to fix deadlines, by synchronizing different timelines or by imposing their time horizon on the process. Different actors' timeframes may interfere with one another, and this may hinder governance processes. The analysis of time helps to explain the dynamics of governance processes, and this article shows that the alignment of timeframes is a crucial activity in realizing innovations in governance. Points for practitioners Time is a crucial factor in innovation processes. Actors often have different perceptions of time, including different time horizons and deadlines. Classic time management mainly aims at budgeting time. This article argues for time sensitive governance. An elementary step is to explicate actors' various time-horizons, time cycles and time-budget. Managers need to align short-term time horizons needed in competitive markets, with medium-term views required to carefully develop innovations and embed them in the policy environment. Adaptivity in dealing with time is important to synchronize the development of innovations with developments in the market and governmental organizations.
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Early Reconstruction Versus Rehabilitation and Delayed Reconstruction for Anterior Cruciate Ligament Tears
Authors: Mather Richard C. , Hettrich Carolyn M. , Dunn Warren R. , Cole Brian J. , Bach Bernard R. , Huston Laura J. , Reinke Emily K. , Spindler Kurt P. , Koenig Lane , Amendola Annunziato , Andrish Jack T. , Kaeding Christopher K. , Marx Robert G. , McCarty Eric C. , Parker Richard D. , Wright Rick W. 
Published: May 2014

Background: An initial anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) tear can be treated with surgical reconstruction or focused rehabilitation. The KANON (Knee Anterior cruciate ligament, NON-surgical versus surgical treatment) randomized controlled trial compared rehabilitation plus early ACL reconstruction (ACLR) to rehabilitation plus optional delayed ACLR and found no difference at 2 years by an intention-to-treat analysis of total Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) results. Purpose: To compare the cost-effectiveness of early versus delayed ACLR. Study Design: Economic and decision analysis; Level of evidence, 2. Methods: A Markov decision model was constructed for a cost-utility analysis of early reconstruction (ER) versus rehabilitation plus optional delayed reconstruction (DR). Outcome probabilities and effectiveness were derived from 2 sources: the KANON study and the Multicenter Orthopaedic Outcomes Network (MOON) database. Collectively, these 2 sources provided data from 928 ACL-injured patients. Utilities were measured by the Short Form–6 dimensions (SF-6D). Costs were estimated from a societal perspective in 2012 US dollars. Costs and utilities were discounted in accordance with the United States Panel on Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine. Effectiveness was expressed in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained. Principal outcome measures were average incremental costs, incremental effectiveness (as measured by QALYs), and net health benefits. Willingness to pay was set at $50,000, which is the currently accepted standard in the United States. Results: In the base case, the ER group resulted in an incremental gain of 0.28 QALYs over the DR group, with a corresponding lower overall cost to society of $1572. Effectiveness gains were driven by the low utility of an unstable knee and the lower utility for the DR group. The cost of rehabilitation and the rate of additional surgery drove the increased cost of the DR group. The most sensitive variable was the rate of knee instability after initial rehabilitation. When the rate of instability falls to 51.5%, DR is less costly, and when the rate of instability falls below 18.0%, DR becomes the preferred cost-effective strategy. Conclusion: An economic analysis of the timing of ACLR using data exclusively from the KANON trial, MOON cohort, and national average reimbursement revealed that early ACLR was more effective (improved QALYs) at a lower cost than rehabilitation plus optional delayed ACLR. Therefore, early ACLR should be the preferred treatment strategy from a societal health system perspective.
Do women who intermittently attend breast screening differ from those who attend every invitation and those who never attend?
Authors: Coyle C , Kinnear H , Rosato M , Mairs A , Hall C , O’Reilly D 
Published: May 2014

Objectives Analysis of screening uptake usually dichotomizes women into attenders and non-attenders, though many women respond positively to some but not all invitations. This paper studies these intermittent attenders. Methods A cohort of 8,571 women invited for consecutive breast screens in the Northern Ireland Breast Screening Programme were followed in a study linking screening and census records. Multivariate logistic analysis was used to analyze the characteristics of those who attended both times (consistent), once (intermittent or ‘one-time only’), or not at all (non-attenders). Results Overall, 15.5% of women attended once and 13.4% were non-attenders. Non-attenders were characteristically disadvantaged (as measured by social renting, car access, and employment status), less likely to be married, and more likely to be healthy. One-time attenders were younger, and suffering poor health, though there was no association with either social renting or employment status. Privately rented accommodation and city living was associated with both one-time attendance and non-attendance. Conclusions One-time attenders are an important and distinct subgroup of screening invitees in this analysis. Their distinct characteristics suggest that transitory factors, such as change in marital status, ill-health, or addressing difficulties through change of residence are important. These distinct characteristics suggest the need for different approaches to increase attendance, among both intermittent attenders and those not attending at all.
Clinicopathological differences between interval and screen-detected breast cancers diagnosed within a screening programme in Northern Portugal
Authors: José Bento Maria , Gonçalves Guilherme , Aguiar Ana , Antunes Luis , Veloso Vitor , Rodrigues Vítor 
Published: May 2014

Objective To evaluate clinicopathological differences between screen-detected (SD) and interval (IC) breast cancers diagnosed in women enrolled in an organized breast screening programme in 2000--2007. Setting Breast Cancer Screening Programme of the north region of Portugal. Methods Using data from the screening programme and from the population-based North Region Cancer Registry, SD and IC were identified. Information on screening history, age, date of diagnosis, tumour size, histological type and grade, lymph node status, tumour stage, biomarkers, and treatment was obtained from the cancer registry and from clinical and pathological reports. Association between mode of detection and these clinicopathological characteristics was estimated by unconditional logistic regression. Results A total of 442 SD and 112 IC were identified in women aged 50--69. Compared with SD, IC were diagnosed in younger women (60.0 ± 5.8 years and 58.4 ± 6.0 years, respectively), were larger (tumour size >20 mm: 60.2% versus 25.1%), lobular (6.3% versus 16.1%), with a higher differentiation grade (grade 3: 17.7% versus 38.9%), had more lymph node metastases, more advanced stage, and oestrogen receptor (ER) negative (12.9% versus 29.0%) and progesterone negative, and HER2 positive. After multivariable analysis, compared with SD, IC were more likely to be larger than 20 mm, lobular, of grade 3 and negative for ER. Conclusion Our results are consistent with other studies. IC’s have a more aggressive biology than SDs. Our findings did not show any unexpected pattern requiring changes to our screening procedures, but continuous identification and characterization of IC is advisable.