bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Reserve Growth an Examination of Infill Drilling and EOR/IOR in Canada
Authors: Baker Richard , Dieva Rous , Sandhu Kerry 
Published: September 2012

Abstract
Growth in reserves from existing reservoirs has been the primary contributor to reserve additions in most mature basins. Historically, infill drilling has been the main driver for reserves growth for the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) and other parts of the world. This study examines the other why's of reserve growth in WCSB. Examination of historical trends in fields shows that injection processes (Enhanced Oil Recovery, waterflooding) dominate reserves growth in WCSB, and have been the reason for an increasing oil rate in the region.
This paper will examine performance of both legacy production and infill well drilling programs and relate it to drive mechanism. Production trends in Canada will be presented as well as the incremental production and contribution to WCSB seen from the infill programs. Next, EOR development will be analyzed. Again, production trends in Canada will be presented and incremental oil contribution due to each individual EOR method will be shown. A brief look at USA EOR experience will also be analyzed. The influence of technology growth and oil price will be reviewed for both infill and EOR oil pools.
Improving Exploration, Appraisal & Pilot Planning through Better Forecasting of Uncertainty Reduction via Reliability of Information Interviewing and Confidence Plots
Authors: Coopersmith E. M. , Burkholder M. K. , Schulze J. H. 
Published: September 2012

Abstract
A challenge in the oil industry is the ability to forecast uncertainty reduction resulting from new information. This is particularly important in exploration, appraisal and pilot programs, where management weighs the amount of information expenditure needed to make drill or development decisions. Although a key decision criterion for this is often value, another important criterion is uncertainty reduction, or confidence in the interpretation of critical uncertainties.
So how can teams understand project uncertainties and the effects of different information or appraisal options on their uncertainty assessments? Through an efficient, multi-discipline reliability of information assessment interview process designed to help the team think clearly and openly about the amount of uncertainty reduction to be gained for different information/appraisal programs.
The product is a series of confidence graphs depicting uncertainty reduction versus information options. The plots are developed using Bayesian mathematics and the reliability of information assessment interviews. They address: (1) the probability of a correct interpretation; (2) the probability the actual outcome will be the low outcome after having forecast a P50 outcome; (3) the probability the actual outcome will be the low outcome after having forecast a high outcome; and (4) the probability of getting a given outcome after having correctly forecast that outcome from the information (e.g., the probability of getting a P50 outcome after forecasting a P50 outcome from a test).
The important aspects of this paper are the set of reliability of interpretation questions used to forecast uncertainty reduction potential, how to conduct those interviews and how to develop the resulting confidence plots. The questions address the drivers of uncertainty reduction potential: information tool accuracy; effect of the environment from which the information is being collected; the tendency of the interpretation to better forecast true low, true P50 or true high states of nature; and the representativeness of the information.
Efficiency of Capital Expenditure of Petroleum Producers: How Investing in Exploration and Development Would Affect Reserves and Production
Authors: Virine Lev 
Published: September 2012

Abstract
Petroleum producers are currently engaged in significant expenditure towards exploration and development in various oil and gas plays in the United States and Canada. Does such expenditure lead to better corporate results, particularly reserves and production, or are there other factors which influence corporate results?
The methodology for analysis of efficiency of capital expenditure was developed, based on the correlation between different types of exploration expenditure, including land, drilling and seismic and producer's reserves and production. A model was developed to quantitatively assess exploration and development expenditure, production, and reserves for various producers for different oil and gas plays. The model employs a number of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) such as finding and development costs with and without acquisitions, reserves life, reinvestment, and others.
The methodology was applied to a comprehensive study of finding and development expenditure in Western Canada. The study did not find a correlation between exploration and development expenditure and company production and reserves additions for WCSB as a whole. However, a correlation was found between expenditure of the companies belonging to the particular group and production within a particular strategy. The results imply that company results are most sensitive to the high level business decisions rather than overall investment in exploration and development.
Completion Influence On Haynesville Shale Gas Well Performance
Authors: Xie Xueying , Glashan John D. , Holzhauser Shawn P. , Knott Gregory M. 
Published: September 2012

Abstract
Shale gas has becoming an important source of gas production in recent years with the advantage of completion technique development. Completion to generate desired fracture system in the reservoir is critical to shale gas production and the corresponding well performance. The impact of fracture system and completion parameters on the well performance decline curves of Haynesville shale gas wells is investigated by using both simulations and field data.
Applying numerical simulation models on horizontal Haynesville shale gas wells with regularly spaced transverse fractures, we investigated the impact of the fracture half length and total fracture surface area on the performance decline curve. The results show that the total fracture surface area defines the early production behavior during the linear flow period and the half length determines the declining slope of the main production time during the fracture interference period if the reservoir parameters are the same. If the reservoir parameters are different, the early time production behavior depends on kAcm, which is the square root of permeability times fracture surface area.
Using field data of hundreds of Haynesville shale gas wells, we observed the different performance decline curves when compared among different regions and compared among different completions in the same region. The difference of decline curves in different regions when using the same completion practice indicates that the reservoir properties are different and thus impact both generated fracture system and flows in the matrix. The difference of decline curves in different completions in the same region suggests that completion impacts the generated fracture system and thus the decline performance. Based on the study results, we can improve the completion practice to optimize well performance and completion cost.
A Two-Factor Price Process for Modeling Uncertainty in the Oil Prices
Authors: Jafarizadeh Babak , Bratvold Reidar B. 
Published: September 2012

Abstract
The petroleum industry has recognized that a consistent probabilistic approach provides improved understanding and insights into the investment decisions. Yet, although most oil & gas companies appreciate the impact of commodity prices on the value of their potential investments, few are implementing price models at the level of probabilistic sophistication and realism of their, say, subsurface models.
We illustrate the implementation and calibration of the two-factor stochastic price model (Schwartz and Smith, 2000) that allows mean-reversion in short-term price deviations and uncertainty in the long-term equilibrium level. It provides advantages over more basic methods but is still simple enough to be communicated to corporate decision makers. The balance between realism and ease of communication of the model has led us to choose this model in favor of one-factor models, which assume that only one source of uncertainty contributes to the uncertainty in prices, or other multi-factor models where two or more factors contributes to the uncertainty in prices.
Previously, a Kalman filter was used to estimate the model parameters based on historical spot and futures prices. We illustrate how current market information (such as futures prices and options on futures observed in commodity futures exchanges) can be utilized to assess the parameters of the two-factor price model. As opposed to the Kalman filter technique, the implied approach to parameter estimation is easy and intuitive, and it will generate estimates that are good enough for most valuation assessments.
The Optimization of Natural Gas Transportation
Authors: Economides Michael J. , Wang Xiuli , Tomaselli Vanni Neri 
Published: September 2012

Abstract
More than 2,600 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas reserves are considered as stranded internationally, outside of North America (i.e., not connected to production). This figure is essentially equal to the 2,800 Tcf currently connected to production. The total world reserves, including North America, are around 7,000 Tcf. Confusing the situation and putting impediments to smooth development, in contrast to oil, is the enormous disparity among natural gas prices in various parts of the world: $1/MMBTU in Russia, $2.5 in the US, $8 in Europe, $16 in the Far East. Lack of adequate and diversified transportation is the reason.
It has been repeated often that oil is "fungible" and hence easy to transport with pipelines or easy to load and unload tankers, whereas natural gas is not. Natural gas can be transported with on-land pipelines but it gets rather expensive with underwater pipelines. Traditionally, the cost per length of offshore pipelines has been considered ten times the onshore cost. The main alternative has been liquefied natural gas (LNG) but other options have been offered such as compressed natural gas (CNG) and the chemical conversion of gas to transportable fuels, collectively called gas-to-liquids (GTL). The latter has changed over the years with alcohols getting new prominence.
This work presents new information from recent experiences and attempts to provide a methodology of optimization for the transportation options for natural gas. Emphasis is given to new CNG technologies. Guidelines and new limits are presented to provide the appropriate means of transportation and reduce the volume of stranded gas currently in place. Worldwide demand for natural gas is expected to force the issue because of massive new needs, headed by China.
Price Projection Model for New Explorations after the Lost Control of Majors
Authors: Al-Farisi O. , Fan K. , Belhaj H. A. , Fahmy F. A. 
Published: September 2012

Abstract
Oil price prediction is one of the vital processes in every oil producing and operating company for current running projects and future new explorations, the whole different segments of industries and commodities would be also interested in knowing the future of oil prices, and we shall not ignore the interest that each country by itself shows to know the effect of future prices on their development plans. The oil price today is somehow far away from the control of any of the world powers, not under the control of the major consumers like the United States, Europe, Japan, Russia & China, nor the Super Majors like BP, Total, Exxon, Shell and Chevron, and not even OPEC majors like Saudi, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait and UAE for several reasons. The Consumers are not any more controlling the tap of oil as it was before the 1960's. While the Super majors are not any more having the major reserves as it was before the 1970's, while for OPEC the Excess Capacity of oil production that they have during 1970's, 80's, and 90's has diminished with maturing fields and failing to find new reserves. Therefore, the oil price control become mainly in the hand of supply and demand trends, hence the ability to capture the supply and demand trend model and anticipate the future of them, the oil price shall be known with reasonable confidence. Therefore, several attempts have been conducted throughout the years to estimate the oil prices as early as 1960's. In this paper, a new oil price projection modeling is built and called POMVSD (Price of Oil Modeling with Variables of Supply and Demand). A model reflects the new economic changes happening worldwide. The details of this model will be described in this paper in addition to a review and analysis of historical and modern literature that support this new model structure.
More Confidence in NCF through Comprehensive Oil Price Model
Authors: Belhaj Hadi , Yaslam Maged M. , Patwary Fakhurddin , Olayiwola Saheed O. 
Published: September 2012

Abstract
Since the early days of the petroleum industry, prediction of oil prices has been a real challenge. The puzzling question we need to answer when evaluating project's NCF is: how much is the price of a barrel during the life-span of the project? Accordingly, oil price modeling became a vital tool to predict both short- term and long-term prices. Unfortunately, there are many uncertainties associated with the available models and none of them can predict oil prices with acceptable accuracy. Only limited controlling parameters are captured by these models. These parameters are basic and derived from simple assumptions of supply and demand dependency. Nowadays, the need for a reliable oil price model became more critical as a change of oil price is experiencing dramatic fluctuations that affect economic decision parameters a great deal.
This paper presents an oil-price model to project the price behavior in the next 20 years. Different scenarios were examined out of which "Economic-Scenario" was found to be the best suitable predictor. This model takes into account multiple effects of fourteen parameters that are believed to have the highest impacts on oil price. These factors have been further classified into key categories such as supply, demand, reserve and externalities (political/environmental/social) which is regionally based. Other parameters such as population growth and technology are embedded within these key factors. According to this model, oil price has been found to have strong reliance on the US Dollar and inflation, which has been incorporate into the model to ensure a more reliable outcome.
Market behavior modeling is a continuous process which is planned to be integrated into the proposed model in the near future once consistent data become available. The major obstacle in modeling market behavior is the lack of futuristic behavior that is primarily dependent on accurate historical data. This data should reflect the performance of short-term effects such as lifestyle, human behavior, politics, conflicts, wars, natural disasters, environmental issues and other economies’ behaviors. The ultimate goal of this modeling effort is to assist in economic and risk analysis evaluation of petroleum projects.
Creating Analogs, Fact and Fiction
Authors: Freeborn Randy , Russell Boyd , Keinick Wayne 
Published: September 2012

Executive Summary
The increasing attention and development of unconventional resources has many in the industry searching for suitable analogs to supplement their evaluation. A common approach is the use of type wells. Type wells are created by averaging the rate of several analogous wells. This type well rate and corresponding volume is used as a benchmark for evaluating and guiding forecasts for similar wells. The concept of type wells is not new but there are aspects that can be refined to improve results.
The current industry practice has a flaw that when combined with development practices will provide inaccurate results. When creating a type well from historical data only, forecasts are implicitly calculated for wells that do not have enough production to reach the end of the type well time interval. Adding to this is the fact that operators will optimize profit by drilling their best wells first. In this instance the type wells will have a greater rate profile and expected ultimate recovery (EUR) than the underlying data will support. This is because the implicit forecasts for the newer, less productive wells are created from the older, better wells. Conversely, type wells will under-predict rate and EUR in technical plays where performance improves with experience. This paper proposes an approach to address the flaw.
When historical production data is merged with reliable production forecasts to build a type well, the resulting type well is the best available representation of the underlying data. Measures to ensure accurate forecasts on individual wells are recommended.
As an extension to predicting a single rate for similar wells, type wells are also employed to predict different percentile outcomes for similar wells. A common method considers all of the data and calculates a percentile at each time step (Time Slice approach). This approach does not produce consistently reliable results. This paper will propose an alternative approach to creating Type Wells at varying percentiles by analyzing actual wells whose outcome is close in value to the desired percentile.
How to Apply Stretched Exponential Equations to Reserve Evaluation
Authors: Freeborn Randy , Russell Boyd 
Published: September 2012

Abstract
The advent of unconventional resources has radically changed the gas and oil supply landscape in North America. To a great extent, investment decisions with respect to development of unconventional resources depend on the ability to accurately forecast future recovery. Conventional forecasting methods have serious shortcomings. A class of empirical decline equations, termed stretched exponentials, was meant to address these forecasting weaknesses. These equations targeted unconventional gas and held great promise for predicting reserves from wells that were previously forecast using linked super-hyperbolic/exponential equations. Unfortunately, stretched exponentials have been underutilized, possibly because the equations are difficult to solve.
This paper will present solution algorithms for the three most popular equations proposed by Ilk (SPE116731), Valko (SPE 134231) and Duong (SPE 137748). Methods will be presented to identify which data should be rejected and which production trend should be solved when operational or reservoir changes result in multiple trends. Conditions will be described that prevent finding a solution or that will result in an inaccurate solution.
Stretched exponential equations are complex and, unlike the Arps’ equations, they cannot be readily manipulated. For example, it is not possible to use Ilk's equation to determine when a well's recovery will reach a specified amount. A formulation will be presented to make stretched exponentials calculator friendly. Regulators require that the decline factor not exceed a specified minimum and the new formulation honors this requirement.
Case studies will be shown to verify the solutions, compare the expected recovery from the three equations and demonstrate why they sometimes fail.
Perceived Value and Popularity of Decision Analysis Tools in Upstream Asset Valuations
Authors: Karakaya Erkan 
Published: September 2012

Abstract
Oil & Gas (O&G) projects are inherently risky. Increasing economic volatility has compounded the complexity of decisions that O&G companies must make in selecting and investing in projects. Consequently, managerial toolkits to support decisions on economic viability of investments under uncertainty have proliferated, from established traditional models such as Discounted Cashflow Analysis (DCA), to more contemporary ones such as Real Options Valuation (ROV).
A comprehensive literature review of the Decision Analysis tools used in upstream asset valuations was performed, and identified tools were mapped to a conceptual decision analysis framework. Perceived value and popularity of these tools were established by conducting a broad survey which attracted 308 respondents over a two-month period.
The survey results indicate that the tools can be grouped into three broad categories: tools with universal acceptance; tools that are not embraced by the O&G industry; and tools with partial acceptance. The survey also included several demographics dimensions. Several tools exhibited an increasing trend in utilization with increasing company size, while others indicated a functional silo effect where tools’ acceptance levels varied considerably across job functions. Geographical impacts were not analyzed in detail as the sample space was skewed towards Europe and North America.
Utilization and satisfaction levels are generally well correlated; however, a cross-analysis of these two dimensions indicates that discrepancies do exist. Hydrocarbon price forecasting and cost estimation tools provide a lower satisfaction relative to their utilization frequency, while some of the well-established tools appear to be struggling to gain acceptance despite being valued by their practitioners.
Reporting Reserves Under Modern Fiscal Agreements
Authors: Young Elliott D. 
Published: September 2012

Abstract
This paper examines the wide variety of international agreements that are currently used by host governments when granting rights to explore for, develop, produce and market hydrocarbons. The variation in fiscal terms found in these agreements covers a broad spectrum. In addition, their structures are often very complex making comparison of alternative project opportunities difficult. The key differences in the agreements and approaches that are commonly used to compare different fiscal regimes are discussed. Case examples are used to illustrate the techniques used to model and perform economic evaluations of specific agreement types and terms. Commonly used definitions and accepted practice for the determination and classification of hydrocarbon volumes are presented. Host and home government regulations that govern and establish the criteria for external reporting of reserves and related financial information are also discussed in contrast with internal reporting needs for technical and business planning purposes.