bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
The 2023/24 El Niño and the Feasibility of Long-Lead ENSO Forecasting
Authors: Petrova Desislava , Rodó Xavier , Koopman Siem Jan , Tzanov Vassil , Cvijanovic Ivana 
Published: August 2024

Abstract
Through its atmospheric teleconnections, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shifts and disrupts weather and climate patterns far beyond the equatorial Pacific where it occurs often resulting in catastrophic consequences in many countries of the world. It is also the largest source of seasonal and interannual climate predictability. Despite its huge importance, ENSO forecasting is still not performed operationally at longer leads than about 6 months ahead. At the same time, there is mounting scientific evidence that forecasts are possible even more than a year in advance. Early warning of ENSO events could substantially mitigate some of the most damaging impacts, such as floods, droughts, and harvest failure and help avoid famine, migration, and disease outbreaks. Here, we present forecasts from a statistical ENSO model of the next El Niño predicted to occur in the winter of 2023/24, at lead times between 11 and 17 months ahead of an expected peak in December 2023. We use a statistical unobserved dynamic components model (EDCM) based on subsurface ocean temperatures as well as sea surface temperatures and zonal wind stress. EDCM has been previously validated through hindcasts of the major El Niños since 1970 and through real-time forecasts of the 2015/16 and 2018/19 El Niños. Our statistical framework and results indicate that there is potential for doubling the operational predictive lead time of ENSO to at least 12 months, with additional promise for even earlier anticipation of 19 months. Such longer-lead forecasts could be of high value, because decision-making and management in a number of key socioeconomic sectors could be greatly improved.
Baroclinic Effects on Wave-Driven Flows in a Microtidal Bay
Authors: Li Xiuren , Song Dehai , Wang Nan , Ding Yang , Liu Zedong , Bao Xianwen 
Published: August 2024

Abstract
A wave–current coupled numerical model with 3D radiation stress formalism is used to study baroclinic effects, specifically stratification and baroclinic pressure gradient force (BcPGF), on wind-wave-driven flows, separated as vertically sheared flows and vertically homogeneous flows. Numerical experiments are conducted under ideal offshore winds of 8 m s−1. Results show that stratification enhances the two-layer structure of the wave-driven sheared flow, while BcPGF has minimal impact. Stratification and BcPGF have limited influence on the direction of the wave-driven depth-averaged circulation, but they can enhance the total circulation by promoting the upper one. In the upper layer where form drag dominates, the competition between the vertical form drag divergence (FDD) and turbulent stress divergence (TSD) plays a critical role in shaping the wave-driven flow. Stratification reduces vertical eddy viscosity Km, suppressing the growth of TSD associated with the vertical shear of velocity, which facilitates the FDD driving the upper outflow. Likewise, stratification can enhance the effect of FDD curl on the upper horizontal circulation by limiting the growth of TSD curl related to the vertical shear of vorticity. Additionally, low Km reinforces geostrophic effect and therefore enhances the lateral circulation. Baroclinic torque contributes to reducing the vertical variation of vorticity and the growth of TSD curl, indirectly improving the effectiveness of FDD curl in driving the upper circulation. Stratification undergoes fortnightly adjustments due to the spring–neap cycle, leading to the synchronized variation in the strength of wave-driven flow, particularly its vertically sheared component. During neap tides with weak tidal forcing and well-developed stratification, wave-driven sheared flow, horizontal circulation, and lateral circulation are stronger.

Significance Statement
The aim of this study is to enhance our comprehension of the impact of baroclinic processes on wind-wave-driven flows in wind-dominated regimes. During summer, wave-driven flows exhibit noticeable vertical shearing, which differ from those observed in winter. This is particularly important because during summer, river runoffs generate strong stratification and introduce large quantities of terrigenous materials into coastal oceans. Consequently, wave-driven flows may play a crucial role in bay-shelf exchange, which has been given in few studies. Our findings highlight the influence of baroclinic processes on turbulent stress divergence, which can enhance wave-driven flows, both the vertically sheared and the vertically homogeneous components, especially during neap tides.
Ensemble Predictability of Week 3/4 Precipitation and Temperature over the United States via Cluster Analysis of the Large-Scale Circulation
Authors: Jennrich Gregory , Straus David , Chelliah Muthuvel , Baggett Cory 
Published: August 2024

Abstract
Forecasting the week 3/4 period presents many challenges, resulting in a need for improvements to forecast skill. At this distance from initial conditions, numerical models struggle to present skillful forecasts of temperature, precipitation, and associated extremes. One approach to address this is to utilize more predictable large-scale circulation regimes to make forecasts of temperature and precipitation anomalies, using the association between the regimes and surface weather obtained from reanalysis products. This study explores the utility of k-means cluster analysis on geopotential heights and their ability to make skillful regime predictions in the week 3/4 period. Using 14-day running means of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) 500-hPa geopotential heights for the wintertime December–February (DJF) period, circulation regimes are identified using k-means clustering. Each period is assigned a cluster number, allowing the compositing of any reanalysis or observation variable to form cluster maps. Maps of 500-hPa height, 2-m temperature, precipitation, and storm-track anomalies are some of the variables composited. The utility of these relationships in a dynamical forecast setting is tested via Global Ensemble Forecast System v12 (GEFSv12) hindcasts and real-time ensemble suite forecasts. Week 3/4 deterministic and probabilistic experimental forecasts are then derived from cluster assignments using several methods. We find, via a conditional skill analysis, forecasts strongly correlated with a cluster exhibit greater skill for both dynamical model and cluster-derived forecasts. Our preliminary results represent a step forward to aid forecasters make more skillful assessments of the circulation regime and its associated surface weather for this challenging forecast time scale.

Significance Statement
Our paper links the local statistics of 14-day precipitation and temperature within the United States to very broad preferred patterns of winds and pressure over the wide Pacific–North American region. Such patterns, known as “circulation regimes,” provide the background that heavily influences local surface conditions. We find that forecasts for which midatmospheric anomalies are closely aligned with one or more circulation regimes are better at predicting the U.S. weather probabilities than other week 3–4 forecasts. A tool based on this finding identifies forecasts for which confidence is higher. Future work will be designed to further exploit the links between circulation regimes and weather to improve the accuracy of week 3–4 forecasts.
A Warning System for the Laseyer Windstorm in a Narrow and Deep Valley of Northeastern Switzerland
Authors: Sprenger Michael , Mahlstein Irina , Caratsch Andrina , Müller Marielle 
Published: August 2024

Abstract
The Laseyer is a very local and uncommon windstorm in a narrow and steep valley in northeastern Switzerland. Whereas the ambient wind is from west to northwest, the strong surface wind in the valley is from the east, leading to gust speeds that become dangerous for the local train running into the valley to the Wasserauen station. To minimize the risk of derailment and to improve passenger comfort, the train service provider Appenzeller Bahnen (AB) has developed a new warning algorithm in close collaboration with academia (ETH Zurich) and the Swiss national weather service (MeteoSwiss). The aim is not only to accurately predict the Laseyer windstorm several hours in advance but also to reduce the number of false alarms. The new warning system is based on the MeteoSwiss operational ensemble prediction system at 1.1-km horizontal mesh size, which is then used in combination with an observation-based machine learning approach to probabilistically forecast Laseyer events up to 30 h in advance. A particular challenge in developing the new system was to introduce the customer, AB, to the modern concept of probabilistic numerical weather prediction, which requires a careful risk assessment by the customer. Hence, the development of the warning system is a process in which the customer and the warning provider closely collaborate and specify the final warning products to be delivered operationally. The operation of the new warning system during the 2021/22 Laseyer season shows that it is working successfully and also indicates that the warning thresholds in the warning algorithm can be adjusted in the future to minimize false alarms without increasing the number of missed events.
Effects of Benzo[α]pyrene on Mucus Secretion and Tissue Remodeling in a Rat Model of Allergic Rhinitis
Authors: Liu Jian , Chen Guohui , Qin Xuemei , Sun Qing , Guo Zhiqiang 
Published: August 2024

Objectives: Exposure to benzo[α]pyrene (BaP) increases the incidence and severity of allergic rhinitis (AR), but the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Thus, we investigated the in vivo effects of BaP exposure on mucus hypersecretion and tissue remodeling in a rat model of AR. Methods: Female Sprague–Dawley rats were randomly divided into 4 groups: a negative control group, a group of healthy rats exposed to BaP, a group of rats with ovalbumin (OVA)-induced AR, and a group of AR model rats exposed to BaP. Nasal symptoms and levels of OVA-specific serum immunoglobulin E (IgE) were measured in each individual rat. Moreover, examination of goblet cell hyperplasia and collagen deposition was carried out with periodic acid-Schiff (PAS) staining and Masson trichrome (MT) staining. Mucin 5AC (MUC5AC) expression was assessed by immunohistochemistry. Results: BaP significantly increased the number of sneezes, the number of nasal rubs and the levels of OVA-specific serum IgE in rats with AR. Statistically significant differences in goblet cell hyperplasia and collagen deposition were observed between the BaP-exposed AR model group and the AR model group. Immunohistochemical results showed that the nasal mucosa of AR model rats displayed markedly elevated MUC5AC expression after BaP exposure. Conclusion: Our data indicate that mucus hypersecretion and the development of nasal remodeling might be pathophysiologic mechanisms underlying increased susceptibility to AR after exposure to BaP.
Strategic Trade Policy in a Cournot Oligopoly with Convex Cost
Authors: Mukherjee Arijit , Sinha Uday Bhanu 
Published: August 2024

We provide a simple reason for export tax in a third-country model of strategic trade policy. We show that the optimal policy under Cournot competition could be export tax in the presence of convex production costs. This happens whether or not the import competing country imposes import tariff. JEL Codes: F12, F13
An Epidemiological Study of Physical–Mental Multimorbidity in Youth: Une étude épidémiologique de la morbidité physique-mentale chez les jeunes
Authors: Reaume Shannon V. , Dubin Joel A. , Perlman Christopher , Ferro Mark A. 
Published: August 2024

Objective This epidemiological study estimated the lifetime prevalence of chronic physical illness (i.e., an illness that lasted or was expected to last ≥6 months) and 6-month prevalence of mental disorder and multimorbidity (i.e., ≥1 physical illness and ≥1 mental disorder) in youth. Associations between physical illness and mental disorder were quantified, including the number of illnesses. Secondary objectives examined factors associated with mental disorder, after controlling for physical illness. Methods Data come from 10,303 youth aged 4–17 years in the 2014 Ontario Child Health Study (OCHS). Physical illness was measured using a list of chronic conditions developed by Statistics Canada. Mental disorders were measured using the OCHS Emotional Behavioural Scales. The Health Utility Index Mark III assessed overall functional health. Results Weighted prevalence estimates showed 550,090 (27.8%) youth had physical illness, 291,986 (14.8%) had mental disorder, and 108,435 (5.4%) had multimorbidity. Physical illness was not associated with mental disorder. However, youth with 2 physical illnesses, as compared to no physical illnesses, had increased odds of having any mental (OR = 1.75 [1.08, 2.85]), mood (OR = 2.50 [1.39, 4.48]) and anxiety disorders (OR = 2.40 [1.33, 4.31]). Mean functional health scores demonstrated a dose–response association across health status categories, with the highest scores among healthy youth and the lowest scores among multimorbid youth (all p < .05). Conclusion Chronic physical illness and mental disorders are prevalent in youth. Youths with 2 physical illnesses have a higher likelihood of mental disorders. Higher functional health scores protected against all mental disorders. Mental health interventions for youth should promote strong overall functional health. Plain Language Summary Title Physical-Mental Multimorbidity in Ontario Youth
Experimental investigation of trans-scale displacement responses of wrinkle defects in fiber-reinforced composite laminates
Authors: Ma Li , Wang Shoulong , Liu Changchen , Wen Ange , Ying Kaidi , Guo Jing 
Published: August 2024

Wrinkle defects were found widely existing in the field of industrial products, that is, wind turbine blades and filament-wound composite pressure vessels. The magnitude of wrinkle wavelength varies from several millimeters to over one hundred millimeters. The detection and quantificationally evaluation of these defects are critical for structural integrity assessments. This study introduces a meso-mechanical model using the homogenization method, which calculates the effective stiffness of graded wrinkle defects. Finite element analysis (FEA) predicts a trans-scale out-of-plane displacement response in wrinkled laminates, with the maximum displacement ranges from nanoscale to millimeter scale. To address this, we utilized shearography (Speckle Pattern Shearing Interferometry) for nanoscale displacements and fringe projection profilometry (FPP) method for larger displacements. In FPP method, a displacement extraction algorithm was presented to obtain the out-of-plane displacement. Comparative analysis indicates that shearography possesses higher sensitivity, capable of detecting load responses as low as 10 N, whereas FPP requires a load range from 200 N to 1000 N. The FEA-validated measurement errors for shearography and FPP are within 3.3%–7.1% and 2.8%–10.5%. The comparison of measurement sensitivity and accuracy between shearography and FPP provides a quantitative reference for industrial non-destructive tests.
Preparation and functional study of epoxy composites reinforced with ultra-low content single-walled carbon nanotubes
Authors: Yang Yuxuan , Li Wei , Cui Xiaoyu , Ding Kaifei , Zhang Lu , Li Hongmei , Wang Baichen , Ma Keming , Lu Shaowei 
Published: August 2024

In this paper, ultra-low content single-walled carbon nanotube(SWCNT)/epoxy composites were prepared by non-covalent modification of SWCNTs, which improved the dispersion of SWCNTs in epoxy resin, and their properties were investigated. It was shown that the electrical conductivity of SWCNT/epoxy composites increased by 7 orders of magnitude over that of epoxy resin when the content of SWCNTs was 0.005 wt%. The impact strength, tensile strength, and elastic modulus of the materials were increased by 47.9%, 58.9%, and 19.0%, respectively, and the strengthening mechanism of SWCNTs on the matrix was analyzed by SEM. Then SWCNTs were introduced into carbon fiber (CF)/epoxy composites and carbon fiber pressure vessels. In comparison to CF/epoxy composites, the shear and tensile strengths of SWCNT/CF/epoxy composites exhibited an increase of 49.2% and 9.8%, respectively, and the bursting pressure of nano-modified pressure vessels was increased by 15.5%. This study provides a new application method for nano-modified epoxy resins and broadens the application fields of epoxy resins.
Investigating tribological performance in 3D-printed PETG/graphene composites of varying composition
Authors: Bedi Surjeet Singh , Mallesha Vasu 
Published: August 2024

This work examines the effects of several graphene compositions (0.02, 0.04, 0.06, 0.08, and 0.1 wt%) on 3D-printed polyethylene terephthalate glycol (PETG) composites on their sliding wear properties that were created using fused deposition modeling (FDM) following ASTM G99-05 guidelines and the filament of each composition with a diameter of 1.75 mm has been prepared by the compounding and blending process using twin-screw extruder. The sliding wear characteristics are systematically assessed using a pin-on-disc tribometer, with three parameters: a load of 10 N, a standardized wear track diameter of 70 mm, and a rotational speed of 300 r/min. This innovative study explores the impact of low graphene loading on the sliding wear and coefficient of friction of PETG composites, revealing how minimal graphene enhancements significantly decrease wear rates and friction levels. These insights facilitate the development of PETG-based materials with tailored tribological properties, ideal for high-wear applications in industries such as automotive and aerospace, where material longevity and performance are critically important. The investigation showed that the reinforcement of graphene in PETG reduced the coefficient of friction (CoF) and showed better results when graphene’s weight percentage increased from 0.06 wt% to 0.1 wt%. However, it did not help to minimize the specific wear rate (SWR) at the selected parameters for the sliding wear test. Out of all other concentrations of PETG/graphene composites, 0.04 wt% of graphene reinforcement showed a lower SWR but not less than pure PETG. Further, an investigation needs to be done for the discrepancies in the results.
Making hospitals innovative: Macro-level policy to sustain micro-innovations in healthcare
Authors: Ramadi Khalil B. , More Saakshi , Shaji Anshuman 
Published: August 2024

Successful innovation clusters are notoriously difficult to establish, and many attempts fail. How can we go about designing such systems reliably? We describe how ecosystems can be strengthened through grassroots bottom-up efforts that empower user and community innovation, as opposed to economic policies that dictate innovation. Specifically focusing on the healthcare industry, we advocate that community hospitals which constitute 90% of all hospitals in Canada are the ideal setting for such community innovation efforts. We investigated the distribution of innovation output from hospitals over the past 13 years and found a decrease in predominance of major teaching hospitals, supporting the potential role for community hospitals in this space. We categorize different types of innovations and recommend institutional policies that can sustain bottom-up, micro-level efforts. Such policies could improve and enhance the development of micro-innovations and the creation of health innovation clusters.
Blood-based biomarkers of neuronal and glial injury in active major neuropsychiatric systemic lupus erythematosus
Authors: Kammeyer Ryan , Chapman Kimberly , Furniss Anna , Hsieh Elena , Fuhlbrigge Robert , Ogbu Ekemini A. , Boackle Susan , Zell JoAnn , Nair Kavita V. , Borko Tyler L. , Cooper Jennifer C. , Bennett Jeffrey L. , Piquet Amanda L. 
Published: August 2024

Background Neuropsychiatric systemic lupus erythematosus (NPSLE) is a poorly understood and heterogeneous manifestation of SLE. Common major NPSLE syndromes include strokes, seizures, myelitis, and aseptic meningitis. Easily obtainable biomarkers are needed to assist in early diagnosis and improve outcomes for NPSLE. A frequent end-result of major syndromes is neuronal or glial injury. Blood-based neurofilament light (NfL) and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) have been utilized as markers for monitoring disease activity and/or severity in other neurodegenerative and neuroinflammatory diseases; however, they have not been evaluated in active major NPSLE. Methods This was a case-control study. We enrolled patients aged 12-60 years with active major NPSLE, SLE without active major NPSLE, and healthy controls. Active NPSLE was defined as being <6 months from last new or worsening neuropsychiatric symptom. Demographics, clinical data, and serum or plasma biosamples were collected. Results Thirteen patients with active major NPSLE, 13 age/sex/kidney function matched SLE controls without active major NPSLE, and 13 age/sex matched healthy controls (mean ages 26.8, 27.3, 26.6 years) were included. 92% of each group were female. Major syndromes included stroke (5), autonomic disorder (3), demyelinating disease (2), aseptic meningitis (2), sensorimotor polyneuropathy (2), cranial neuropathy (1), seizures (1), and myelopathy (2). Mean (standard deviation) blood NfL and GFAP were 3.6 pg/ml (2.0) and 50.4 pg/ml (15.0), respectively, for the healthy controls. Compared to healthy controls, SLE without active major NPSLE had mean blood NfL and GFAP levels 1.3 pg/ml ( p = .42) and 1.2 pg/ml higher ( p = .53), respectively. Blood NfL was on average 17.9 pg/ml higher (95% CI: 9.2, 34.5; p < .001) and blood GFAP was on average 3.2 pg/ml higher (95% CI: 1.9, 5.5; p < .001) for cases of active major NPSLE compared to SLE without active major NPSLE. In a subset of 6 patients sampled at multiple time points, blood NfL and GFAP decreased after immunotherapy. Conclusions Blood NfL and GFAP levels are elevated in persons with SLE with active major NPSLE compared to disease matched controls and may lower after immunotherapy initiation. Larger and longitudinal studies are needed to ascertain their utility in a clinical setting.
Promoting Global Health Knowledge and Cultural Competence of Swedish and Somali Nursing Students Through Collaborative Virtual Seminars: A Qualitative Descriptive Study
Authors: Örtlund Olivia M. , Andersson Inger , Osman Fatumo 
Published: August 2024

Introduction: Engaging nursing students in transdisciplinary learning and collaborative activities will prepare them for future roles in promoting global health knowledge and cultural competence. The purpose of this study was to describe undergraduate nursing students’ experiences of participating in collaborative virtual seminars intended to promote global health knowledge and increase cultural competence between a university in Sweden and a university in Somaliland. Methods: A qualitative descriptive study using semi-structured individual interviews and focus group discussions was conducted. Notably, 27 nursing students who participated in a collaborative virtual seminar were included. Data were analyzed using inductive qualitative content analysis. Results: Nursing students reported having gained profound comprehension of and a broadened perspective on global health, cultural awareness, and curiosity crucial for their roles as future global nurses. Discussion: Fostering global health knowledge and cultural competence among nursing students through collaborative virtual seminars is advantageous as it enhances their cultural competence in nursing.