Evaluating outcomes of young forest management on a target species of conservation concern
Authors: Streby Henry M. , Kramer Gunnar R. , Peterson Sean M. , Andersen David E. 
Published: January 2018

Background
Assessing outcomes of habitat management is critical for informing and adapting conservation plans. From 2013–2019, a multi-stage management initiative aims to create >26,000 ha of shrubland and early-successional vegetation to benefit Golden-winged Warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera) in managed forested landscapes of the western Great Lakes region. We studied a dense breeding population of Golden-winged Warblers at Rice Lake National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) in Minnesota, USA, where shrubs and young trees were sheared during the winter of 2014–2015 in a single treatment supported in part by the American Bird Conservancy (ABC) and in part by other funding source(s) to benefit Golden-winged Warblers and other species associated with young forest [e.g., American Woodcock (Scalopax minor)] and as part of maintenance of early successional forest cover on the refuge.

Methods
We monitored abundance of Golden-winged Warblers before (2013–2014) and after (2015–2016) management at the treatment site and a control site, and we estimated full-season productivity (i.e., young recruited into the fall population) on the treatment site from predictive, spatially explicit models, informed by nest and fledgling survival data collected at sites in the western Great Lakes region, including Rice Lake NWR, during 2011 and 2012. Then, using biologically informed models of Golden-winged Warbler response to observed and predicted vegetation succession, we estimated the cumulative change in population recruitment over various scenarios of vegetation succession and demographic response.

Results
We observed a 32% decline in abundance of Golden-winged Warbler breeding pairs on the treatment site and estimated a 27% decline in per-pair full-season productivity following management, compared to no change in a nearby control site. In models that ranged from highly optimistic to progressively more realistic scenarios, we estimated a net loss of 72–460 juvenile Golden-winged Warblers produced from the treatment site in the 10–20 years following management. Even if our well-informed and locally validated productivity models produced erroneous estimates and the management resulted in only a temporary reduction in abundance (i.e., no change in productivity), our forecast models still predicted a net loss of 61–260 juvenile Golden-winged Warblers from the treatment site over the same time frame.

Conclusions
Our study sites represent only a small portion of a large young-forest management initiative directed at Golden-winged Warblers in the western Great Lakes region; however, the brush management, or shearing of shrubs and small trees, that was applied at our study site is a common treatment applied by contractors funded by ABC and its partners on public lands across Minnesota with the expressed intent of benefiting Golden-winged Warblers and related species. Furthermore, the resulting vegetation structure at our treatment site is consistent with that of other areas managed under the initiative, and ABC documents include our study site as successful Golden-winged Warbler management based on observations of ≥1 Golden-winged Warbler at the treatment site since the management. Our assessment demonstrates that, at least for the only site for which pre- and post-management data on Golden-winged Warblers exist, the shearing of shrubs and small trees has had a substantial and likely enduring negative impact on Golden-winged Warblers. We suggest that incorporating region-specific, empirical information about Golden-winged Warbler—habitat relations into habitat management efforts would increase the likelihood of a positive response by Golden-winged Warblers and also suggest that management directed generically at young forest may not benefit Golden-winged Warblers.