bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Thermal conductivity of the Bazhenovo Formation rocks in the Salym area (West Siberian Plate)
Authors: Duchkov A.D. , Sokolova L.S. , Ayunov D.E. , Yan P.A. 
Published: August 2016

Abstract
We discuss the results of measurements of the thermal conductivity of the Bazhenovo Formation rocks from wells drilled in the Salym petroliferous area of the West Siberian Plate. The thermal conductivity was measured by “Thermal-conductivity comparator” and “Scanning thermal-conductivity meter” in different years. A total of 225 measurements were made in two directions with respect to the rock layering: parallel (λ1) and orthogonal (λ2). The results show that the Bazhenovo Formation rocks are mostly of abnormally low thermal conductivity: λ1 = 1.0–2.3 W/(m⋅K) (average is 1.6 W/(m⋅K)) and λ2 = 0.8–1.9 W/(m⋅K) (average is 1.3 W/(m⋅K)). This leads to an abnormal increase in geothermal gradient within the Bazhenovo Formation. Such geothermal-gradient anomalies can be easily revealed by high-precision thermal logging. It is also shown that the thermal conductivity of the studied rocks is in inverse relationship with their organic-matter content.
Internal and External Validation of a Computer-Assisted Surveillance System for Hospital-Acquired Infections in a 754-Bed General Hospital in the Netherlands
Authors: Streefkerk H. Roel A. , Lede Ivar O. , Eriksson John L. V. , Meijling Marije G. , van der Hoeven Conrad P. , Wille Jan C. , Hopmans Titia E. M. , Friedrich Alex W. , Verbrugh Henri A. , Naiemi Nashwan al 
Published: August 2016

OBJECTIVETo evaluate a computer-assisted point-prevalence survey (CAPPS) for hospital-acquired infections (HAIs).DESIGNValidation cohort.SETTINGA 754-bed teaching hospital in the Netherlands.METHODSFor the internal validation of a CAPPS for HAIs, 2,526 patients were included. All patient records were retrospectively reviewed in depth by 2 infection control practitioners (ICPs) to determine which patients had suffered an HAI. Preventie van Ziekenhuisinfecties door Surveillance (PREZIES) criteria were used. Following this internal validation, 13 consecutive CAPPS were performed in a prospective study from January to March 2013 to determine weekly, monthly, and quarterly HAI point prevalence. Finally, a CAPPS was externally validated by PREZIES (Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu [RIVM], Bilthoven, Netherlands). In all evaluations, discrepancies were resolved by consensus.RESULTSIn our series of CAPPS, 83% of the patients were automatically excluded from detailed review by the ICP. The sensitivity of the method was 91%. The time spent per hospital-wide CAPPS was ~3 hours. External validation showed a negative predictive value of 99.1% for CAPPS.CONCLUSIONSCAPPS proved to be a sensitive, accurate, and efficient method to determine serial weekly point-prevalence HAI rates in our hospital.Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol2016;1–6
Pension fund liabilities and asset matching
Authors: Fellows D.E. 
Published: August 2016

1.1. The concept of matching assets and liabilities has for many years been recognized as a crucial aspect of our professional work. Its importance is emphasized in the Institute's guidance notes entitled “Actuaries and Long-Term Insurance Business” and in many papers published in the Journal.1.2. A particular form of matching, namely immunization, was developed by F. M. Redington in his paper “Review of the Principles of Life-Office Valuations” (J.I.A. 78, 286). Immunization signifies the investment of assets in such a way that the existing business is immune to a change in the rate of interest. One of the consequences of immunization is that the mean term of the asset-maturity dates is appreciably longer than the mean term of the value of the asset-proceeds and of the liability-outgo; and, at other than low rates of interest, a perpetuity can be too short to immunize a long-term contractual liability.
Annuities and Their Valuation
Authors: Monkhouse C. Cosmo 
Published: August 2016

Valuation Age: The valuation age is usually taken as either the nearest age or the age last birthday at the date of valuation. The former would appear to be the more reasonable method as annuity rates are frequently quoted for half ages or even quarter ages.Grouping (Single Lives): For valuation purposes the annuities are grouped according to the office dates of birth, calculated to give the valuation age on the assumption chosen. Sub-grouping may be necessary to facilitate selection being taken into account if considered desirable.
The Elementary Principles of Pension Funds
Authors: Simmonds R. C. 
Published: August 2016

It is the purpose of these notes to set out briefly the most prominent features of Pension Funds. No attempt will be made to go into the many intricate questions involved when formulae have to be deduced.The primary purpose of a Pension Fund is to make provision for the declining years of life, and therefore some form of benefit accruing at superannuation is always included. It is found, however, that allowance has usually to be made for other causes of cessation of activity, and so benefits upon retirement through ill-health, upon voluntary withdrawal, and upon death before the attainment of the age which normally qualifies a member for a pension, are introduced. Thus, in a full scheme, after certain initial periods have passed, practically the only case in which no tangible benefit is derived is that in which a man is dismissed for misconduct.It will be recognised at once that with four main types of benefit as a basis and an illimitable fund of human ingenuity upon which to draw, the number of different allowances found in practice is very great. Only a few can be indicated here.
Infantile Mortality
Authors: Blossom John 
Published: August 2016

There appears to be very little information, especially of recent date, relating to infantile mortality, in the publications of the Institute, and it is possible that a discussion upon the mortality of very young lives would be of service to those who have to deal with infantile assurances to any great extent.It is well known that infantile mortality rates have, generally, shown continuous improvement during the present century, and we cannot say that such rates have yet reached their lowest limit. For example, the deaths of males and females respectively during the first year of life as exhibited by successive English Life Tables are:—
Annuities-certain at linearly decreasing rates of interest
Authors: Thomas E. M. 
Published: August 2016

In practice it is desired occasionally to calculate the value of an annuity-certain at a rate of interest decreasing steadily from the outset. If the rate of interest for the first year is ix and decreases byhper annum throughout the termnof the annuity, the value required issay, whereThis expression is somewhat laborious to evaluate.
The comparison of salary scales
Authors: Bizley M. T. L. 
Published: August 2016

In Pension Fund work there arises the problem of determining the cost of a pension dependent upon salary and length of service, and it is often required to ascertain how this cost would be affected if a different salary scale were substituted for that upon the basis of which calculations have already been made. Attention will be confined in this Note to the type of scale most common in practice, namely, the ‘ratio’ scale wherein the successive values form a series of proportional numbers showing the average ratios by which present salaries may be expected to increase from age to age in the future.We will suppose that the contribution, expressed as ą percentage of salary, is required on one scale when it has been calculated on another scale, or that the various effects of using several possible scales are to be determined. It may happen that the nature of the scales, or to be more precise their relative nature, is such that in order to find a solution to this problem we must consider the effect of the change separately upon the value of the pension benefit and upon the value of a contribution of 1 % of salary; or it may even be necessary to recalculate the required figure on each of the different bases.
Demography
Authors: Jones Elfryn 
Published: August 2016

The study of methods of measurement of the rate of population growth is one of the most fundamental aspects of demographic science and one which, from its nature, should be of particular interest to the actuarial profession. It is therefore fitting that this paper should be devoted to a discussion of this side of the subject, particularly in view of the importance which the analysis of population trends has assumed in modern times as the result of the decline in birth-rates experienced by this country in common with most of the leading civilized nations.Leaving out of account losses and gains by migration, the future development of a given population is determined by the numbers of children that people have, the proportions of these who survive and the sizes of the families which they have in their turn, the cycle continuing indefinitely. Whilst the consequences of changes in mortality must not be underestimated it is clearly the wide possible range of variation in birth-rates which plays by far the more important part in shaping future population trends. The measurement of population growth therefore rests largely on the analysis of fertility, a subject of considerable complexity.
Expense
Authors: Gardner W. F. 
Published: August 2016

The work of the actuary is largely made up of the four elements of Mortality, Interest, Taxation and Expense. These form what I shall term the actuary's ‘MITE’, and it is noteworthy that of the four, expense comes both last and least in actuarial literature.There are many possible reasons for this. Expense is a grim subject and lacks the appeal of the other three. Mortality has its theoretical speculations, its mathematical adventures and sometimes, perhaps, its statistical stumblings. Interest is exciting enough, particularly in our attempts to forecast the yield which a life assurance fund may be expected to earn in the future. Taxation is not very exciting; but it is an intricate subject and all our actuarial ingenuity is sometimes needed to grapple with its problems. Expense, on the other hand, appears simple—at least on the surface; and perhaps its very simplicity is the reason why so little has been written about it. However, it seems to me that the objective analysis of expense is a necessary part of actuarial practice, and I think that it might well figure a little more frequently in our proceedings.
National Economic Statistics
Authors: Cottrell H. C. 
Published: August 2016

Actuaries are closely interested in the economic state of the nation, both as ‘scientific financiers’ and as citizens of a democracy, but this interest involves them in a dilemma: although it is possible to obtain only a hazy picture of the whole, even by devoting all of one's time to the study of economic affairs, yet for the majority this subject can be only a sideline. Each actuary must therefore make his own decisions, first as to how much time he can spare, and second as to which aspects of the nation's economy he might most profitably study. These two decisions will depend on the particular actuary's interests and employment, and on the state of the nation's economy at the time.This paper discusses one selection of economic data, comprehensive enough to give a reliable impression of the nation's economy, yet short enough to permit frequent examination.
Studies in the recent marriage and fertility data of England and Wales
Authors: Cox P. R. 
Published: August 2016

With the appearance of the Report of the Royal Commission on Population and several volumes of ancillary papers, it may seem that the potentialities for fruitful statistical analysis of recent marriage and fertility data in this country have been exhausted, and that little fresh work can usefully be done on them until the extent of the experience has been enlarged by the passage of time.There is, however, a wide area for statistical investigation that appears not yet to have been completely charted, in spite of the penetrating studies made by those who worked on behalf of the Royal Commission. The available data offer scope for the formulation of new techniques of analysis and presentation, and for examination by approaches different from those made by the Commission's demographers, which had, in the main, the particular purpose of ascertaining whether or not the people of this country are replacing themselves.
Some theoretical aspects of permanent sickness insurance
Authors: Medin Knut 
Published: August 2016

This paper deals with some technical and statistical questions in sickness benefit insurance.In § 1 there is a survey of the various theoretical approaches to the calculation of net premiums, and the calculation of gross premiums is discussed in §2.Some methods of calculating rates employ two basic functions: the frequencies of new cases of sickness and the duration of sickness. The derivation of these functions from the corresponding statistical data is exemplified in § 3, which contains some results from an account of the experience of a Swedish sickness insurance company. Finally, § 4 deals with some mathematical formulae for graduating data of this type.
Aspects of Overseas Life Assurance legislation.
Authors: Finch J. E. 
Published: August 2016

The transaction by British offices of life assurance business outside the United Kingdom brings with it problems which have been discussed by W. F. Gardner in his paper to the Institute on ‘Some considerations affecting the transaction of overseas life business’ (J.I.A.
66, 198) and by C. D. Sharp in his paper on ‘British life assurance overseas’ (J.S.S.
9, 2). These papers dealt with the principles to be observed and the practice to be followed in writing life business overseas having regard, inter alia, to local insurance laws. My intention is to consider the laws themselves, to point out some of the differences between them, and to consider to what extent they are consistent with actuarial principles.
To keep the subject within practical limits I shall confine myself to Ordinary branch business in the Commonwealth and Egypt. Furthermore, I shall not consider laws which directly control the relationship between insurer and insured, and between insurer and field staff.
Some Statistical Aspects of Non-Life Insurance
Authors: Beard R. E. 
Published: August 2016

When invited to prepare a paper to the Students' Society I had in mind selecting a topic from each of the various branches to illustrate the types of problems that are inherent in non-life business. However, as my ideas took positive shape, I found myself drawn into a more active study of certain aspects which have received little attention in this country, although some considerable theoretical and a limited amount of practical work has been done on the Continent. Instead, therefore, of giving a general description of various features I have largely limited myself to techniques which could be used in practical application and thus endeavoured to bring into relief some problems which indicate the almost unlimited scope for practical and theoretical investigations.2. Initially the treatment is simplified; I hope that I have succeeded in picking out the spots where intuition rather than formal proof has been my guide, but if I have not I hope my critics will give me latitude in this exploration into largely unexplored territory.
The Further Decline in Spinsterhood.
Authors: Hocking W. S. 
Published: August 2016

When the question of the future constitution of the female population of this country as regards marital status was studied about eight years ago, the conclusion was reached (J.S.S.10, 24) that ‘a considerable fall in the number of marriages, to be followed by a consequential fall in the number of births, is almost inevitable during the next few years’. This conclusion was based on the fact that the number of births declined by 20% during the 1920's and this decline was likely to be reflected in the number of marriages about 20 to 25 years later.In fact, marriages in England and Wales, which averaged about 350,000 a year during 1941–45, rose to 391,000 a year during 1947–49 (which presumably included a number of ‘demobilization’ marriages) and fell only to 356,000 on average during 1950–52, and 348,000 a year during 1953–55, whilst in 1956, the latest year for which figures are available, the marriages numbered 353,000.
Some Thoughts on Annuity Business
Authors: Crook G. C. 
Published: August 2016

When closing the discussion on the Finance Act, 1956, at the Sessional Meeting held at the Institute in November 1956, A. G. Simons commented that the Act would take a little while to settle down and really be appreciated, and it was a pity, therefore, that some of the younger members of the Institute had not given their views, because they were the ones who would have to handle it in the future.If the thoughts expressed in this paper encourage a lively discussion amongst the younger members then it will have achieved its object.
The Riddle of the Aces
Authors: Bizley M. T. L. 
Published: August 2016

1. In this note we shall try to unravel a puzzle. It is hoped that the triviality of the subject-matter will not persuade the reader that it is unworthy of his attention; our excuse for offering it is that the underlying principle turns out to be applicable to some very practical situations. In many of these we experience no problem and seem to be on firm ground, as may a man who on a winter's day strays from the common on to the pond, until the ice breaks.2. By repeatedly presenting theorems that appear intuitively to be unacceptable, a mathematical training is apt to engender distrust in the conclusions of common sense. When the mind has learned to convince itself of the truth of a host of astonishing facts, it hesitates to reject a fresh one however improbable it may seem. This reluctance has an unfortunate consequence, in that the more often the validity of such results is demonstrated, the less the urge is felt to scrutinize a new proof before entering yet another black mark upon the long crime sheet of intuition. Thus, paradoxically, the highly trained expert may sometimes be deceived into accepting a false statement that would be instantly denied by a layman incapable of following its supporting argument. ‘You can't fool me’, boasts the novice, ‘I'm too ignorant.’
Non-Proportional Reinsurance
Authors: Guaschi F. E. 
Published: August 2016

The subject of reinsurance has received relatively little treatment in our actuarial literature and indeed the definitive paper on the subject was written by G. T. Foster in 1945. This paper is still the recommended reading for the subject in the Final Examination. Non-proportional reinsurance finds its usual place in the fire and accident departments but for reasons which I hope will become apparent later it is much less common in life assurance. It seems to me that the reason for this is that it is a form of cover unattractive to both parties since it is essentially short term, whereas life assurance offices are concerned with long term liabilities. Nevertheless, since some actuaries may be unfamiliar with the subject chosen for this meeting, I felt that the ground might be better prepared if the subject of life assurance were treated first.DefinitionsIt is usual to start with a definition and in this case it is easier to define what is meant by proportional reinsurance, since this is the type of reinsurance most commonly encountered by actuaries.It may be stated as follows: When a claim arises, the shares of the reinsurer and ceding company are paid in proportions which were fixed in advance. This is a simple and rather obvious statement, and for this very reason it is often overlooked.
Why N.C.D.
Authors: Bennett M. C. 
Published: August 2016

This paper was originally written as a Note for the Institute of Actuaries Students' Society on ‘N.C.D. Systems in Motor Insurance’. This topic was one of nineteen non-life topics on which Notes were requested by the Students' Society in 1973, a different member of the Society being responsible for each topic. The Notes were not expected to give the results of research work along previously unexplored lines. Rather, they were intended as a survey of existing knowledge in each subject—including references to any useful literature—which could be understood by and be of general interest to members of the profession who had little or no experience of non-life work.Following a request from the Manchester Actuarial Society, it was decided to revise and expand the original Note to make a paper more suited for discussion. No Claim Discount (N.C.D.) is one of the more controversial areas of motor insurance, being a topic on which the motorist is liable to hold strong and emotive views from time to time. As now written the paper takes a critical look at N.C.D. systems, as well as outlining their basic features.
The Rebels’ Credibility Dilemma
Authors: Thomas Jakana L. , Reed William , Wolford Scott 
Published: August 2016

AbstractThis article examines why rebel groups make large demands of governments that are inconsistent with their fighting capacity, especially when such demands are almost always rejected. We show that making large demands, even if ultimately rejected by the government, makes sense for rebels who face a credibility dilemma. Such a dilemma is most likely to arise when militarily weak rebel groups face governments of uncertain strength and can commit to fight credibly only when they believe the government is also weak. This results in a counterintuitive set of strategic incentives for weak rebels, who choose their demands to ensure that they are rejected even when the government is weak. Thus, to make their threat to fight credible, weak rebels make large demands that, when rejected, result in inefficient fighting. Since most civil wars are characterized by weak rebels bargaining with much stronger governments, it is important to understand how this particular feature of civil war shapes intrawar negotiations between the rebels and the government. We develop a model of bargaining between a government and rebel group and evaluate its implications using historical data on civil conflict in Africa from 1989 to 2010. The results suggest that the tendency for the government to be significantly stronger than rebels induces rebel groups to make unrealistically large demands.
Business Cycles, Harvests, and Politics: 1790–1850
Authors: Rostow W. W. 
Published: August 2016

You cannot get them to talk of politics when they are well employed.— William Mathews, 1833.I have observed during the whole time I have been in Lanarkshire that any rise in the rate of discount at the Bank of England has been immediately, or at least shortly, followed by an increase both of crime and of civil suits, and if it continues long, of mortality and typhus fever. So much so, that, as I am an official member of the prison board and of most of the Charities, I have always made it a rule to say … “Gentlemen, the Bank of England have raised their discounts, you had better immediately take measures for enlarging the prison accommodations and for extending the infirmaries and Poor houses.”—A. Alison, Sheriff of Lanarkshire, 1848.