bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Evaluating Bayesian spatial methods for modelling species distributions with clumped and restricted occurrence data
Authors: Redding David W. , Lucas Tim C. D. , Blackburn Tim , Jones Kate E. 
Published: February 2017

SUMMARY1. Statistical approaches for inferring the spatial distribution of taxa (Species Distribution Models, SDMs) commonly rely on available occurrence data, which is often non-randomly distributed and geographically restricted. Although available SDM methods address some of these problems, the errors could be more directly and accurately modelled using a spatially-explicit approach. Software to implement spatial autocorrelation terms into SDMs are now widely available, but whether such approaches for inferring SDMs are an improvement over existing methodologies is unknown.2. Here, within a simulated environment using 1000 generated species’ ranges, we compared the performance of two commonly used non-spatial SDM methods (Maximum Entropy Modelling, MAXENT and Boosted Regression Trees, BRT) to a spatially-explicit Bayesian SDM method (Integrated Laplace Approximation, INLA), when the underlying data exhibit varying combinations of clumping and geographic restriction. Finally, we tested whether any recommended methodological settings for all methods were further impacted by spatially non-random patterns in these data.3. Spatially-explicit INLA was the most consistently accurate method, being most or equal most accurate in 5 out of 8 data sampling scenarios. Within high-coverage sample datasets, all methods performed fairly similarly, but when sampling points were randomly spread BRT had a 1-3% greater accuracy over the other methods and when samples were clumped, spatial-INLA had a 4%-8% better in AUC score. Alternatively, when sampling points were restricted to a small section of the true range, all methods were on average 10-12% less accurate, with higher variation among the methods. None of the recommended settings for the different methods were found to be sensitive to clumping or restriction of data, except the complexity of the INLA spatial term.4. INLA-based modelling approaches can be successfully used to account for spatial autocorrelation in an SDM context and, by taking account of random effects, produce outputs that can better elucidate the role of covariates in predicting species occurrence. Given that it is often unclear what the drivers are behind data clumping in an empirical occurrence dataset, or indeed how geographically restricted these data are, spatially-explicit INLA-based SDMs may be the better choice when modelling the spatial distribution of target species.
Education and coronary heart disease: a Mendelian randomization study
Authors: Tillmann Taavi , Vaucher Julien , Okbay Aysu , Pikhart Hynek , Peasey Anne , Kubinova Ruzena , Pajak Andrzej , Tamosiunas Abdonas , Malyutina Sofia , Fischer Krista , Veronesi Giovanni , Palmer Tom , Bowden Jack , Davey Smith George , Bobak Martin , Holmes Michael V 
Published: February 2017

AbstractObjectivesTo determine whether educational attainment is a causal risk factor in the development of coronary heart disease.DesignMendelian randomization study, where genetic data are used as proxies for education, in order to minimize confounding. A two-sample design was applied, where summary level genetic data was analysed from two publically available consortia.SettingIn the main analysis, we analysed genetic data from two large consortia (CARDIoGRAM and SSGAC), comprising of 112 cohorts from predominantly high-income countries. In addition, we also analysed genetic data from 7 additional large consortia, in order to identify putative causal mediators.ParticipantsThe main analysis was of 589 377 men and women, predominantly of European origin.ExposureA one standard deviation increase in the genetic predisposition towards higher education (i.e. 3.6 years of additional schooling). This was measured by 162 genetic variants that have been previously associated with education.Main outcomeCombined fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (63 746 events).Results3.6 years of additional education lowered the risk of coronary heart disease by a third (odds ratio = 0.67, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59 to 0.77, p=0.01). Equivalent increases in education were also causally associated with reductions in smoking, BMI and improvements in blood lipid profiles.ConclusionsMore time spent in education is causally associated with a large reduction in the risk of coronary heart disease. This may be partly explained by changes to smoking, BMI and a blood lipids. These findings offer support for policy interventions that increase education, in order to also reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease.
Recent origin of Neotropical orchids in the world’s richest plant biodiversity hotspot
Authors: Alejandro Pérez-Escobar Oscar , Chomicki Guillaume , Condamine Fabien L. , Karremans Adam P. , Bogarín Diego , Matzke Nicholas J. , Silvestro Daniele , Antonelli Alexandre 
Published: February 2017

Abstract• The Andean mountains of South America are the most species-rich biodiversity hotspot worldwide with about 15% of the world’s plant species, in only 1% of the world’s land surface. Orchids are a key element of the Andean flora, and one of the most prominent components of the Neotropical epiphyte diversity, yet very little is known about their origin and diversification.• We address this knowledge gap by inferring the biogeographical history and evolutionary dynamics of the two largest Neotropical orchid groups (Cymbidieae and Pleurothallidinae), using two unparalleled, densely-sampled orchid phylogenies (including 400+ newly generated DNA sequences), comparative phylogenetic methods, geological and biological datasets.• We find that the majority of Andean orchid lineages only originated in the last 15 million years. Most Andean lineages are derived from lowland Amazonian ancestors, with additional contributions from Central America and the Antilles. Species diversification is correlated with Andean orogeny, and multiple migrations and re-colonizations across the Andes indicate that mountains do not constrain orchid dispersal over long timescales.• Our study sheds new light on the timing and geography of a major Neotropical radiation, and suggests that mountain uplift promotes species diversification across all elevational zones.
Visibility graphs for fMRI data: multiplex temporal graphs and their modulations across resting state networks
Authors: Sannino Speranza , Stramaglia Sebastiano , Lacasa Lucas , Marinazzo Daniele 
Published: February 2017

AbstractVisibility algorithms are a family of methods that map time series into graphs, such that the tools of graph theory and network science can be used for the characterization of time series. This approach has proved a convenient tool and visibility graphs have found applications across several disciplines. Recently, an approach has been proposed to extend this framework to multivariate time series, allowing a novel way to describe collective dynamics. Here we test their application to fMRI time series, following two main motivations, namely that (i) this approach allows to simultaneously capture and process relevant aspects of both local and global dynamics in an easy and intuitive way, and (ii) this provides a suggestive bridge between time series and network theory which nicely fits the consolidating field of network neuroscience. Our application to a large open dataset reveals differences in the similarities of temporal networks (and thus in correlated dynamics) across resting state networks, and gives indications that some differences in brain activity connected to psychiatric disorders could be picked up by this approach.
Volatility risk and stock return predictability on global financial crises
Authors: Kongsilp Worawuth , Mateus Cesario 
Published: February 2017

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of volatility risk on stock return predictability specified on two global financial crises: the dot-com bubble and recent financial crisis.Design/methodology/approachUsing a broad sample of stock options traded on the American Stock Exchange and the Chicago Board Options Exchange from January 2001 to December 2010, the effect of different idiosyncratic volatility forecasting measures are examined on future stock returns in four different periods (Bear and Bull markets).FindingsFirst, the authors find clear and robust empirical evidence that the implied idiosyncratic volatility is the best stock return predictor for every sub-period both in Bear and Bull markets. Second, the cross-section firm-specific characteristics are important when it comes to stock returns forecasts, as the latter have mixed positive and negative effects on Bear and Bull markets. Third, the authors provide evidence that short selling constraints impact negatively on stock returns for only a Bull market and that liquidity is meaningless for both Bear and Bull markets after the recent financial crisis.Practical implicationsThese results would be helpful to disclose more information on the best idiosyncratic volatility measure to be implemented in global financial crises.Originality/valueThis study empirically analyses the effect of different idiosyncratic volatility measures for a period that involves both the dotcom bubble and the recent financial crisis in four different periods (Bear and Bull markets) and contributes the existing literature on volatility measures, volatility risk and stock return predictability in global financial crises.
Variable-fidelity CFD models and co-Kriging for expedited multi-objective aerodynamic design optimization
Authors: Koziel Slawomir , Tesfahunegn Yonatan , Leifsson Leifur 
Published: February 2017

Purpose
Strategies for accelerated multi-objective optimization of aerodynamic surfaces are investigated, including the possibility of exploiting surrogate modeling techniques for computational fluid dynamic (CFD)-driven design speedup of such surfaces. The purpose of this paper is to reduce the overall optimization time.

Design/methodology/approach
An algorithmic framework is described that is composed of: a search space reduction, fast surrogate models constructed using variable-fidelity CFD models and co-Kriging, and Pareto front refinement. Numerical case studies are provided demonstrating the feasibility of solving real-world problems involving multi-objective optimization of transonic airfoil shapes and accurate CFD simulation models of such surfaces.

Findings
It is possible, through appropriate combination of surrogate modeling techniques and variable-fidelity models, to identify a set of alternative designs representing the best possible trade-offs between conflicting design objectives in a realistic time frame corresponding to a few dozen of high-fidelity CFD simulations of the respective surfaces.

Originality/value
The proposed aerodynamic design optimization algorithmic framework is novel and holistic. It proved useful for fast design of aerodynamic surfaces using high-fidelity simulation data in moderately sized search space, which is extremely challenging when using conventional methods due to the excessive computational cost.
Worker outcomes of LGBT-supportive policies: a cross-level model
Authors: Pichler Shaun , Ruggs Enrica , Trau Raymond 
Published: February 2017

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to develop a cross-level conceptual model of organizational- and individual-level outcomes of lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT)-supportive policies for all workers regardless of their sexual orientation.Design/methodology/approachThis is a conceptual paper based on an integration of propositions from perceived organizational support and organizational justice theories.FindingsThe model suggests that LGBT-supportive policies should be related to perceptions of organizational support directly and indirectly through diversity climate and perceptions of distributive, procedural, and interactional justice.Practical implicationsThe model implies that employees should feel more supported and more fairly treated among firms with LGBT-supportive policies and practices, and that these feelings will be reciprocated.Originality/valueThis is the first paper to develop propositions about the outcomes of LGBT-supportive policies for all workers, and advances the literature by developing a multi-level model of outcomes of these policies.
The OWA distance operator and its application in business failure
Authors: Scherger Valeria , Terceño Antonio , Vigier Hernán 
Published: February 2017

Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to develop a goodness index based on Hamming distance and ordered weighted averaging distance (OWAD), which is useful to make decisions. These alternative measures enrich the results of diagnostic fuzzy models and facilitate the experts’ task in decision-making. An application to a set of firms to verify the results is also presented.

Design/methodology/approach
The paper follows the basis of OWA operators to design a methodology to reduce the map of causes of business failure into monitoring key areas.

Findings
The present paper introduces two alternative measures to test the proposal of grouping. In the empirical application, the superiority of the minimum T-norm over other decision rules is verified. The ordered weighted averaging distance (OWAD) goodness index predicts a better adjustment over the index built using OWA and Hamming distance measures.

Practical implications
A useful mechanism to reduce the map of causes or diseases detected in key areas is added through this analysis. At the same time, these key areas can be disaggregated once some alert indicator is identified; this allows knowing the causes that require special attention. This application of OWA can encourage the development of suitable computer systems for monitoring the firm’s problems, alerting regarding failures and easing decision-making.

Originality/value
A comparison of grouping causes into key areas through a goodness index based on Hamming distance and OWAD is proposed. These contributions enrich the Vigier and Terceño (2008) model and could be applied to any model of fuzzy diagnosis to test the results.
A study of the strong Allee effect with fuzzy parameters for its application in economics
Authors: Corominas Coll Dolors , Ferrer-Comalat Joan Carles , Linares-Mustarós Salvador , Bertran Xavier 
Published: February 2017

Purpose
The purpose of this study is to present a detailed quantitative and qualitative fuzzy approach to the Allee effect that permits dealing with uncertainty.

Design/methodology/approach
The Allee effect is related to those aspects of population dynamics that are connected with a decrease in individual fitness when the population size diminishes to very low levels. It allows to model the evolution of certain sectors or clusters which, due to their low population density, may have problems of survival. In uncertain environments, an estimate of the effect’s parameters can be performed in the form of fuzzy numbers, which means that this study is using the methodology of fuzzy arithmetic.

Findings
This study reveals that fuzziness changes the behavior of the set of solutions when the strong Allee effect is studied under uncertainty from the point of view of standard difference or generalization of the Hukuhara difference.

Originality/value
The value and originality of the work consists in offering a set of tools for studying the evolution of a group of firms subject to an Allee effect in uncertain environments.
The impact of dividend policy on price-earnings ratio
Authors: Jitmaneeroj Boonlert 
Published: February 2017

Purpose
This paper aims to examine the conditional and nonlinear relationship between price-earnings (P/E) ratio and payout ratio. A common finding of previous studies using linear regression model is that the P/E ratio is positively related to the dividend payout ratio. However, none of them investigates the condition under which the positive relationship holds.

Design/methodology/approach
This paper uses the fixed effects model to investigate the conditional and nonlinear relationship between P/E ratio and payout ratio. With the inclusion of fundamental factors and investor sentiment, this model allows for nonlinear relationship to be conditioned on the return on equity and the required rate of return.

Findings
Based on the annual data of industries in the USA over the period of 1998-2014, this paper produces new evidence indicating that when the return on equity is greater (less) than the required rate of return, the P/E ratio and dividend payout ratio exhibit a negative (positive) relationship and positive (negative) convexity.

Practical implications
Due to the curvature relationship between P/E ratio and payout ratio, the corporate managers and stock investors should pay more attention to the reduction in payout ratio than the rising payout ratio and the companies with low payout ratios than the companies with high payout ratios.

Originality/value
No previous study has tackled the issue of conditional and nonlinear relationship between P/E ratio and payout ratio. This paper attempts to fill the gap by allowing for nonlinear relationship conditional on the relative values of the return on equity and the required rate of return.
Bold perch live life in the fast lane
Authors: Adriaenssens Bart 
Published: February 2017

A schematic summary showing the links between behaviour and life‐history observed by Nakayama, Rapp & Arlinghaus in wild Eurasion perch (Perca fluviatilis). [Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com].imageA schematic summary showing the links between behaviour and life‐history observed by Nakayama, Rapp & Arlinghaus in wild Eurasion perch (Perca fluviatilis). [Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com].

In Focus: Nakayama, S., Rapp, T. & Arlinghaus, R. (2017) . Journal of Animal Ecology, 86, 192–201.
The pace‐of‐life syndrome hypothesis (POLS) suggests that individual behavioural variation co‐evolves with life‐history variation, causing individuals on a fast life‐history trajectory to display more active or bold personalities than individuals following a slow trajectory. In the present study, Nakayama, Rapp & Arlinghaus () followed the detailed movement patterns of wild Eurasian perch using acoustic telemetry and studied their relationships with life‐history traits inferred from scale samples. Consistent with POLS, individuals with greater reproductive effort changed more often between active and passive behavioural modes. Moreover, individuals growing fast as a juvenile stayed active longer and moved over greater distances when adult. This study shows compelling evidence for covariance between personality and pace‐of‐life in a natural population.
Postmortem Serum Tryptase Levels with Special Regard to Acute Cardiac Deaths
Authors: Xiao Ning , Li Dong‐Ri , Wang Qi , Zhang Fu , Yu Yan‐Geng , Wang Hui‐Jun 
Published: February 2017

AbstractAn elevated serum tryptase concentration is considered a specific marker for systemic mast cell activation, a central feature of anaphylaxis. However, in some cases of acute cardiovascular death, high concentrations of serum tryptase are also observed. We compared the postmortem serum tryptase concentrations in 74 cases assigned to the following four groups: anaphylactic deaths (Group A, n = 20), acute cardiac deaths (Group ACD, n = 30), acute dissecting aneurysm ruptures (Group ADA, n = 10), and controls (Group C, n = 14). Additionally, the cutoff between Group A and the other groups was calculated using receiver‐operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Tryptase concentrations were markedly elevated in Group A (p < 0.001), Group ACD (p = 0.015), and Group ADA (p = 0.005). The optimal cutoff was 43 ng/mL, the sensitivity was 90%, and the specificity was 98%. While elevated concentrations of tryptase were noted in practical autopsy cases, due attention should be paid to the differential diagnosis between anaphylactic and acute cardiovascular deaths.
Pre‐oncall key conditions training for first‐year radiology registrars
Authors: Brown Nicholas I , Leschke Paul , Way Mandy , Smith David D , Cleland Perry 
Published: February 2017

AbstractIntroductionThe Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Radiology (RANZCR) recognised the importance of experience in on‐call and emergency radiology for first‐year registrars by introducing ‘Key conditions in Year 1 training’. This list of common radiological pathologies can help to focus preparations for new registrars as they prepare for after‐hours duties.MethodsThe Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital (RBWH) implemented a 12‐week formal training programme, based on this curriculum, for new registrars prior to commencing after‐hours work. Its impact was assessed by an image recognition and interpretation examination that was administered to registrars before and after training.ResultsExamination results revealed that the prescribed training programme significantly increased both the rate and accuracy of reporting, and that improvements in speed were not at the expense of accuracy. Furthermore, it showed that a 12‐week training programme was able to improve novice radiology registrars’ ability to detect radiological abnormalities above that of experienced emergency department clinicians. Performances of consultant radiologists were used as a ‘gold standard’ control.ConclusionThis research demonstrates the value of a formal training programme in preparing registrars for extended after‐hours reporting duties and contributing to important departmental service provision.
A Novel Emergency Department‐based Community Notification Method for Clinical Research Without Consent
Authors: O'Malley Gerald F. , Giraldo Patricia , Deitch Kenneth , Aguilera Elizabeth Andrea , Cadar Sorin , Lares Claudia , O'Malley Rika Nagakuni , Oqroshidze Nino , Verma Manisha , Chudnofsky Carl 
Published: February 2017

AbstractObjectiveWe used an emergency department (ED)‐based method to provide targeted, individualized consultation; community notification; and public disclosure and collect data regarding willingness to participate in prospective resuscitation research requiring waiver of consent.MethodsWe conducted a prospective survey of convenience cohort in an urban ED. We targeted the community of ED patients with pulmonary disease for individualized notification and public disclosure using a 1) large poster, 2) scripted oral presentation describing an emergency intubation clinical trial, and 3) video demonstration.ResultsApproximately 10% of our annual ED census, 6,936 subjects, enrolled. Of that total, 29 were also subjects in a prospective coincident endotracheal resuscitation intubation study, which enrolled a total of 262 subjects. ED community notification was provided to 22 of the 29 (75.9%) subjects prior to the visit during which they were intubated (13 agreed to participate, six declined, and three undecided) and seven of the 29 subjects subsequent to enrollment in the intubation study (five agreed to participate and two undecided). Fourteen of the 29 patients who participated in both projects had undergone endotracheal intubation at least once prior to community notification: 10 agreed to participate in the study, two declined, and two were undecided.ConclusionsEmergency department–based community notification and public disclosure is a viable way to provide information to a target population and collect data about the success of the notification. Feedback data collection is critical to an ethical understanding of the success of community notification for the institutional review board and investigators. Collection of feedback data should be required as a subject protection for exception from informed consent in emergency settings.