bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Fitting mechanistic epidemic models to data: a comparison of simple Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches
Authors: Li Michael , Dushoff Jonathan , Bolker Ben 
Published: February 2017

AbstractBackgroundSimple mechanistic epidemic models are widely used for forecasting and parameter estimation of infectious diseases based on noisy case reporting data. Despite the widespread application of models to emerging infectious diseases, we know little about the comparative performance of standard computational-statistical frameworks in these contexts. Here we build a simple stochastic, discrete-time, discrete-state epidemic model with both process and observation error and use it to characterize the effectiveness of different flavours of Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. We use fits to simulated data, where parameters (and future behaviour) are known to explore the limitations of different platforms and quantify parameter estimation accuracy, forecasting accuracy, and computational efficiency across combinations of modeling decisions (e.g. discrete vs. continuous latent states, levels of stochasticity) and computational platforms (JAGS, NIMBLE, Stan).ResultsModels incorporating at least one source of population-level variation (i.e., dispersion in either the transmission process or the observation process) provide reasonably good forecasts and parameter estimates, while models that incorporate only individual-level variation can lead to inaccurate (or overconfident) results. Models using continuous approximations to the transmission process showed improved computational efficiency without loss of accuracy.ConclusionSimple models of disease transmission and observation can be fitted reliably to simple simulations, as long as population-level variation is taken into account. Continuous approximations can improve computational efficiency using more advanced MCMC techniques.
HIV population-level adaptation can rapidly diminish the impact of a partially effective vaccine
Authors: Herbeck Joshua T. , Peebles Kathryn , Edlefsen Paul T. , Rolland Morgane , Murphy James T. , Gottlieb Geoffrey S. , Abernethy Neil , Mullins James I. , Mittler John E. , Goodreau Steven M. 
Published: February 2017

AbstractDevelopment of an HIV vaccine is essential to ending the HIV/AIDS pandemic. However, vaccines can result in the emergence and spread of vaccine-resistant strains. Indeed, analyses of breakthrough infections in the HIV vaccine trial RV144 identified HIV genotypes with differential rates of transmission in vaccine and placebo recipients. We hypothesized that, for HIV vaccination programs based on partially effective vaccines similar to RV144, HIV adaptation will diminish the expected vaccine impact. Using two HIV epidemic models, we simulated large-scale vaccination programs and, critically, included HIV strain diversity with respect to the vaccine response. We show here that rapid population-level viral adaptation can lead to decreased overall vaccine efficacy and substantially fewer infections averted by vaccination, when comparing scenarios with and without viral evolution (depending on vaccination coverage, vaccine efficacy against the sensitive allele, and the initial resistant allele frequency). Translating this to the epidemic in South Africa, a scenario with 70% vaccination coverage may result in 250,000 new infections within 10 years of vaccine rollout that are due solely to HIV adaptation, all else being equal. These findings suggest that approaches to HIV vaccine development, program implementation, and epidemic modeling may require attention to viral evolutionary responses to vaccination.
Decoding temporal interpretation of the morphogen Bicoid in the earlyDrosophilaembryo
Authors: Huang Anqi , Amourda Christopher , Zhang Shaobo , Tolwinski Nicholas S. , Saunders Timothy E. 
Published: February 2017

SUMMARYMorphogen gradients provide essential spatial information during development. Not only the local concentration but also duration of morphogen exposure is critical for correct cell fate decisions. Yet, how and when cells temporally integrate signals from a morphogen remains unclear. Here, we use optogenetic manipulation to switch off Bicoid-dependent transcription in the earlyDrosophilaembryo with high temporal resolution, allowing time-specific and reversible manipulation of morphogen signalling. We find that Bicoid transcriptional activity is dispensable for embryonic viability in the first hour after fertilization, but persistently required throughout the rest of the blastoderm stage. Short interruptions of Bicoid activity alter the most anterior cell fate decisions, while prolonged inactivation expands patterning defects from anterior to posterior. Such anterior susceptibility correlates with high reliance of anterior gap gene expression on Bicoid. Therefore, cell fates exposed to higher Bicoid concentration require input for longer duration, demonstrating a previously unknown aspect of morphogen decoding.
Financial risk analysis of Cambodia Kamchay hydropower BOT project
Authors: Jun Zhuo , Chanvicheka Phan , Shuai Gao 
Published: February 2017

Subject area
Management science, operational and financial risk of overseas enterprises.

Study level/applicability
This case is mainly applicable to international business course and project management course.

Case overview
Since 1992, the Great Mekong sub-regional economic cooperation between China and ASEAN countries was officially launched and set free economic zone. Hydropower is starting to develop in recent years in Cambodia, and it is a good significance to Cambodia's industry. Furthermore, most of hydropower plants in Cambodia are built by Chinese companies. Thus, this paper will analyze the current risk and condition of Kamchay hydropower, as well as the development of Chinese enterprise for Cambodia economic and social development.

Expected learning outcomes
This case study provides students concepts on international business, project management, and operational risk of overseas enterprises. The principle of project contracting, labor cooperation, and project financial in international process are considered together with the implications they have for advancing understanding of the problem of the host country's government interests and the various risk of enterprises in international BOT projects.

Supplementary materials
Teaching notes are available for educators only. Please contact your library to gain login details or email support@emeraldinsight.com to request teaching notes.
Employability and innovation: development of a scale
Authors: Singh Rupali , Chawla Ginni , Agarwal Sonal , Desai Avani 
Published: February 2017

Purpose
The purpose of the paper is to explore the antecedents of employability from the employer’s perspective to provide sustainable employment and to develop a measurement scale.

Design/methodology/approach
In the study, the survey-based approach has been adopted. The authors developed an instrument following extensive literature review and further pre-tested the instrument with experts drawn from the academics. The data collection was monitored following Dillman’s (2007) total design test method. Finally, 114 usable responses were collected. The data were further tested for normal assumptions. Orthogonal and parsimonious constructs were derived following exploratory factor analysis, and the construct validity was checked using confirmatory factor analysis.

Findings
The following antecedents of employability were obtained: innovative skills and innovative abilities along with the knowledge, innovative abilities, personality factors, career-building traits, emotional intelligence and efficacy beliefs.

Research limitations/implications
The authors observed that the present study like other survey-based research has its own limitations. Currently, cross-sectional data were used, which inherit some serious limitations like endogeneity and common method bias. However, utmost care was taken to minimize the effects of endogeneity and common method bias using some suggested measures in the existing literature.

Social implications
The findings and conclusions are expected to aid students, academicians and practitioners in developing an understanding of employability. Moreover, these antecedents can be developed in graduates along with their higher education as per the requirements of the industry.

Originality/value
This paper is an attempt to develop a scale for measurement of employability in the education sector.
Agent-based modeling of availability for complex multiple units systems
Authors: Wang Ling , Xu Hong , Wu Jinjin , Chen Xiai , Na Wenbo 
Published: February 2017

Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to propose an availability modeling method of complex multiple units system (CMUS) based on the multi-agent technique.

Design/methodology/approach
Based on the multi-agent technique, this paper describes the availability model structure for CMUS and develops agent-based models of components, maintenance policies, maintenance tools, maintenance fields, and maintenance staff, as well as the communication method among the different agents. On the basis of the agent-based availability modeling theory, the availability simulation scheme of CMUS is given using MATLAB. Thus, the availability modeling theory of CMUS and its simulation method are developed. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed availability modeling method, a numerical example is given.

Findings
The proposed agent-based modeling method is applicable to availability modeling of CMUS, including the modeling of component failure, maintenance tools/fields/staff, maintenance policy, and structural/economic dependence among components.

Practical implications
As a bottom-top, modular, expandable, and reusable modeling theory, the agent-based modeling method might be useful for availability modeling of different CMUSs in reality.

Originality/value
The multi-agent technique is introduced into availability modeling of multi-component systems in this paper. Thus, it is possible to model failure of many components, maintenance policies, maintenance tools, maintenance fields, and maintenance staff together for availability analysis of complex systems of equipment.
Does the soft aspects of TQM influence job satisfaction and commitment? An empirical analysis
Authors: Arunachalam Thiruchelvi , Palanichamy Yogesh 
Published: February 2017

PurposePrevious studies that have attempted to link TQM and employees’ satisfaction are either theoretical without empirical evidence or had limited outcome in scope as they link only few elements of TQM with employees’ job satisfaction and commitment. This study is warranted due to the paucity of insights into the impact of soft strategies on determining job satisfaction and commitment. Despite the considerable body of TQM literature that has evolved to examine the relationship between TQM and employees’ job satisfaction in various countries as well as industries there is no existing literature that recognizes the soft aspects of TQM within the context of the Indian manufacturing industry. The paper aims to discuss these issues.Design/methodology/approachOn the basis of the proposed hypotheses a conceptual model was proposed and tested. A questionnaire survey was employed for data collection. The participants were 450 shop floor employees of three Indian manufacturing organizations.FindingsThe results have shown that six out of the nine soft aspects of TQM played a role in determining job satisfaction and commitment. The results have also shown that the predictors of both job satisfaction and commitment were the same except for the strength of prediction. The proposed model showed an acceptable fit.Originality/valueThis is the first study to examine the impact of soft aspects of TQM in determining job satisfaction and commitment in the Indian manufacturing organizations.
Culture driven regeneration (CDR): a conceptual business improvement tool
Authors: Mahadevan Kumaraguru 
Published: February 2017

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to present the research carried out on a conceptual approach in business improvement termed as culture driven regeneration (CDR). The research positions CDR as business improvement tool that leverages organizational learning, organization culture and corporate knowledge in implementing changes. The CDR concept is positioned half way between business process re-engineering (BPR) that thrives on radical design and process changes, and total quality management (TQM) that takes the slow and incremental approach to improvement. CDR regenerates the processes in the journey to business improvement.Design/methodology/approachA structured and a comprehensive literature review were carried out on BPR and TQM in the context of leadership, organization learning, organizational learning and corporate knowledge. The review confirmed that TQM and BPR are connected to the four areas. This connection led to the conceptualization that organizations deploy culture and corporate knowledge to drive business improvement. Organization culture and knowledge was quantified based on previous research in this area and methods applied in other research studies relating to benchmarking. There are no empirical analyses included in this paper, however knowledge and culture were given scores in illustrating the CDR concept.FindingsThis conceptual paper has pointed out that organization culture, knowledge, organizational learning and leadership are important components of a business improvement tool such as BPR and TQM. The CDR concept leverages those components and draws on the organization’s corporate culture to enable change.Research limitations/implicationsAdditional empirical studies are required on various types of industries, organization cultures, organization structures and professions to establish more robust scores for knowledge and culture applied in the CDR concept. The concept could be further expanded into a framework that could be applied across a number of industries.Originality/valueThe CDR concept is a business improvement tool that enables organizations to leverage their existing culture in driving change. The concept is built up on the existing relationship BPR and TQM has with organization learning, organization culture, corporate knowledge and the quantification of culture and knowledge.
Intra‐ and interspecific niche variation as reconstructed from stable isotopes in two ecologically different Ethiopian Rift Valley lakes
Authors: Lemmens Pieter , Teffera Fassil E. , Wynants Maarten , Govaert Lynn , Deckers Jozef , Bauer Hans , Woldeyes Feleke , Brendonck Luc , Bouillon Steven , De Meester Luc 
Published: February 2017

Summary

The concept of species niches has enhanced our understanding of community assembly and food web structure in a variety of ecosystem types. Niche‐based species sorting profoundly determines community composition along strong environmental gradients, while interspecific interactions tend to be more important within habitats at local spatial scales. The role of intraspecific niche variation in community assembly and ecosystem functioning has only recently been highlighted.

The present study undertakes a quantitative comparison of the trophic structure of fish communities in two iconic Ethiopian Rift Valley lakes, Lake Abaya and Lake Chamo, which are biodiversity hotspots with high societal importance. The lakes differ strongly in ecology: whereas Lake Abaya is turbid due to a very high sediment loading, Lake Chamo is a clear‐water lake, which in recent years is, however, rapidly becoming more turbid. Using stable isotopes, we compare the structure of the food web in both lakes, and investigate the degree to which differences in trophic structure between the two lakes are mediated by changes in species composition with fixed within‐species niches or rather by flexibility in food acquisition within species.

Different food web compartments, including fish and the main basal sources, were sampled in both lakes. We used Bayesian stable isotope mixing models and Bayesian community‐wide metrics for a quantitative comparison of the food web structure between the two lakes.

We demonstrate that the isotopic niche of the fish community in Lake Abaya is larger and more diversified compared to that in Lake Chamo. Sediment organic material seems to be a major energy source for fish in Abaya, while zooplankton is a dominant source for fish in Chamo. This is consistent with the different ecology of the two lakes, where high turbidity impedes primary and secondary production in Abaya. Differences in trophic structure between the two lakes resulted from intraspecific isotopic niche variation rather than from compositional variation between fish communities.

Our results point to the importance of intraspecific variation in feeding ecology of fish communities inhabiting two large Ethiopian Rift Valley lakes with distinct environmental conditions. We anticipate that the approach we used has strong potential to explore large‐scale patterns in food web organization in relation to niche variation across different types of ecosystems.

lay summary is available for this article.
Developmental trajectories of amphibian microbiota: response to bacterial therapy depends on initial community structure
Authors: Davis Leyla R. , Bigler Laurent , Woodhams Douglas C. 
Published: February 2017

SummaryImproving host health through microbial manipulation requires untangling factors that shape the microbiome. There is currently little understanding of how initial community structure may drive the microbiota trajectory across host development or influence bacterial therapy outcomes. Probiotic baths of surface symbionts,Pseudomonas fluorescensandFlavobacterium johnsoniaewere administered to 240 tadpoles of the midwife toad,Alytes obstetricansin semi‐natural outdoor mesocosms originating from geographically and genetically distinct populations in Switzerland. Host bacterial and fungal assemblages were compared in tadpoles from the pond of origin, across metamorphosis, and in toadlets via microbial fingerprinting. Bacterial and fungal community structures differed significantly among populations and a microbial population signature persisted from the tadpole stage, through metamorphosis, and following probiotic treatment. A minimal core surface microbiota is described by persistence through development and by shared membership across populations. The impact ofF. johnsoniaeon the tadpole surface microbiome was assessed with shotgun metagenomics. Bacterial therapy reduced abundance, diversity, and functional repertoire compared to untreated controls. A correlation between host skin peptides and microbiota suggests a mechanism of host‐directed symbiosis throughout development. Early developmental stages are ideal targets for amphibian bacterial therapy that can govern a microbiome trajectory at critical timepoints and may impact susceptibility to disease.
W. E. B. Du Bois at the center: from science, civil rights movement, to Black Lives Matter
Authors: Morris Aldon 
Published: February 2017

AbstractI am honoured to present the 2016 British Journal of Sociology Annual Lecture at the London School of Economics. My lecture is based on ideas derived from my new book, The Scholar Denied: W.E.B. Du Bois and the Birth of Modern Sociology.In this essay I make three arguments. First, W.E.B. Du Bois and his Atlanta School of Sociology pioneered scientific sociology in the United States. Second, Du Bois pioneered a public sociology that creatively combined sociology and activism. Finally, Du Bois pioneered a politically engaged social science relevant for contemporary political struggles including the contemporary Black Lives Matter movement.
Diagnosing Crime and Diagnosing Disease: Bias Reduction Strategies in the Forensic and Clinical Sciences
Authors: Lockhart Joseph J. , Satya‐Murti Saty 
Published: February 2017

AbstractCognitive effort is an essential part of both forensic and clinical decision‐making. Errors occur in both fields because the cognitive process is complex and prone to bias. We performed a selective review of full‐text English language literature on cognitive bias leading to diagnostic and forensic errors. Earlier work (1970–2000) concentrated on classifying and raising bias awareness. Recently (2000–2016), the emphasis has shifted toward strategies for “debiasing.” While the forensic sciences have focused on the control of misleading contextual cues, clinical debiasing efforts have relied on checklists and hypothetical scenarios. No single generally applicable and effective bias reduction strategy has emerged so far. Generalized attempts at bias elimination have not been particularly successful. It is time to shift focus to the study of errors within specific domains, and how to best communicate uncertainty in order to improve decision making on the part of both the expert and the trier‐of‐fact.
Sex Assessment from the Volume of the First Metatarsal Bone: A Comparison of Linear and Volume Measurements
Authors: Gibelli Daniele , Poppa Pasquale , Cummaudo Marco , Mattia Mirko , Cappella Annalisa , Mazzarelli Debora , Zago Matteo , Sforza Chiarella , Cattaneo Cristina 
Published: February 2017

AbstractSexual dimorphism is a crucial characteristic of skeleton. In the last years, volumetric and surface 3D acquisition systems have enabled anthropologists to assess surfaces and volumes, whose potential still needs to be verified. This article aimed at assessing volume and linear parameters of the first metatarsal bone through 3D acquisition by laser scanning. Sixty‐eight skeletons underwent 3D scan through laser scanner: Seven linear measurements and volume from each bone were assessed. A cutoff value of 13,370 mm3 was found, with an accuracy of 80.8%. Linear measurements outperformed volume: metatarsal length and mediolateral width of base showed higher cross‐validated accuracies (respectively, 82.1% and 79.1%, raising at 83.6% when both of them were included). Further studies are needed to verify the real advantage for sex assessment provided by volume measurements.
Molecular identification and distribution of leatherjackets (Diptera: Tipulidae) in U.K. agricultural grassland
Authors: Benefer Carly M. , D'Ahmed Karzan S. , Murray Philip J. , Blackshaw Rod P. 
Published: February 2017

Abstract
DNA barcoding is useful for the identification of morphologically cryptic invertebrates. An important application is for pest species, for which it is critical to determine the distribution, biology and ecology of damaging life stages in order to target management effectively.
Tipula paludosa (Meigen) and Tipula oleracea (Linnaeus) leatherjackets, the larvae of crane flies (Diptera: Tipulidae), are pests of agricultural grassland in Europe and the U.S.A. and are difficult to distinguish morphologically.
We used cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) barcoding to identify leatherjackets from 19 permanent grassland fields over 2 sampling seasons on the Rothamsted Research North Wyke Farm Platform, south west UK, to assess species-level distribution and genetic diversity.
Most larvae (94%) were found to be T. paludosa, comprising 18 haplotypes that were spread across the sampling site in a panmictic population. However, T. oleracea were found in low abundance (3% of larval samples) and only in the second year of sampling. Other morphologically similar Dipteran larvae (3%) were also found.
This dominance of one species suggests that there may be underlying differences in species biology, such as choice of oviposition site and dispersal ability, which is in agreement with other studies and has implications for monitoring and management.