bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Joint Life Annuities – Some Experiments with the A1924–29 Table
Authors: King A. E. , Reid A. R. 
Published: July 2016

SynopsisThe two main objects of the paper are :—(1) To ascertain what modifications in Makeham's Law are necessary in order that the principle of Uniform Seniority may be applied to the A1924–29 ult. table.(2) To ascertain whether some approximate method is readily available for the calculation of joint life annuity values according to the A1924–29 ult. table.As regards (1) developments of the suggestions put forward in the discussion following Mr. C. L. Stoodley's paper to the Faculty in February 1934 are examined, and the conclusion is reached that, while the results are somewhat disappointing so far as the A1924-29 table is concerned, some of the formulae brought out may yet prove of practical use when applied to a mortality table more free from heterogeneous matter.In the second part of the paper the results of applying to the A1924–29 ult. table several standard approximate methods are first examined, and it is shown that such methods are liable to produce systematic errors when applied to this table. Two new methods of approximation are then developed, which are shown to yield much more satisfactory results, and tables are reproduced to facilitate the practical application of these methods.
Some Points that have Arisen out of the Continuous Investigation into the Mortality of Assured Lives, 1924–1929
Authors: Elderton W. Palin , Oakley H. J. P. , Smither H. B. 
Published: July 2016

SynopsisThe objects of this paper are (1) to set out for members of the profession some account of the further investigations that have been made into the statistics that formed the basis of the A1924–29 Table; (2) to correct certain errors that have been discovered; (3) to explain the possible weaknesses in the statistics; (4) to discuss the variations in mortality shown by individual offices; and (5) to give some idea of the range in mortality above and below the combined result of all the offices.In an endeavour to fulfil those objects—(1) There are made available in the appendices the various enquiries which, subsequent to the publication of the A1924–29 Table, were made of the contributing offices;(2) The net alterations in the total deaths as a result of these enquiries are detailed, including the two major errors already known;(3) The various factors calling for care and attention are examined;(4) The variations in mortality shown by individual offices are set out in tabular form without disclosing their identity;(5) Light and heavy mortality tables are produced with certain monetary functions by what are termed light and heavy mortality in comparison with the standard A1924–29, these light and heavy mortality tables being made up from certain combinations of offices at either extreme of the tabulated list.The comforting conclusion is reached that the Al924–29 Table is a satisfactory representation of the type of mortality revealed by most of the offices, and may be used, for practical purposes by the large majority.A final word is given in explanation of the census method, having in mind the importance of including all data which should properly be returned, particularly in the case of early deaths.Thus, it is laid down that a death should not be omitted if the life, had it survived, would have been included amongst the “in force” to which the deaths are related; and there follows the golden rule: “A death must be included at a duration if, had a ‘census’ (or enumeration of the policies in force) been taken the moment before death, the case would have been counted as in force at that duration.”
Some Recent Actuarial Developments in the United States of America
Authors: Maclean J. B. 
Published: July 2016

SynopsisThe paper discusses developments resulting from (1) the recent passage by most of the state legislatures of the “Standard Valuation Law” and the “Standard Non-forfeiture Law,” and (2) the general adoption by the companies of a lower interest assumption in the calculation of premiums, reserves and non-forfeiture values.After a brief review of the system of regulation of life insurance in the United States and of the more important differences in practice as compared with practice in the United Kingdom, the paper proceeds to outline the background which led to the appointment of the “Guertin Committee” by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners to study and report on the need for a new mortality table and related matters and (subsequently) on non-forfeiture benefits. The main recommendations of the Committee and the subsequent modifications thereof as adopted by the Commissioners and later embodied in the Standard Laws are detailed.The effects on life insurance operations of the new Standard Laws in conjunction with lower interest assumptions and the marked upward trend in expenses are discussed. The paper concludes with a brief reference to two important changes being made by some companies in their policy conditions.
Notes on Constant and Increasing Extra Mortality
Authors: Keppie S. C. , Stepney A. C. 
Published: July 2016

SynopsisThe paper deals with the types of under-average mortality which may be expressed either as a constant addition or as a fixed percentage addition to A1924-29 ultimate qx.For various constant and percentage additions, tables are given which show:–(a)The extra premiums required, for different classes of policy, in addition to A1924-29 2½ per cent. ult. net premiums.(b)The level debts equivalent to certain of the extra premiums.(c)The smaller extra premiums required if Double Endowment Assurances are issued in lieu of Endowment Assurances.
Theories of Probability
Authors: Aitken A. C. 
Published: July 2016

SynopsisVarious definitions of mathematical probability are described and commented upon: (i) the classical formulation, based on the ratio of favourable to total “equally likely” aspects of a system; (ii) formulations based on relative frequency in a sequence of trials, or on the limit of relative frequency as the number of trials is increased indefinitely; (iii) von Mises' refinement of this, in which the sequences obey special postulates ensuring “randomness”; (iv) modern revisions of the classical definition, “equally likely” aspects being replaced by an aggregate, and ratio of aspects by relative measure of a sub-aggregate; (v) the approach of Keynes, in which probability is the “logic of uncertain inference,” developed by a symbolic algebra; (vi) the approach of Jeffreys, by axioms and conventions of procedure, based on the principle of indifference and the use of the rule of inverse probability. It is suggested that, whereas in formulations based on relative frequency, frequency cannot be held to afford any explanation of the facts of frequency, in the a priori formulations, on the other hand, any postulates put forward are still very far from explaining to inquiring minds the commonly observed phenomena of so-called chance. It is further suggested that in actuarial applications the nexus between axioms of probability and causes of mortality is especially obscure, with consequent need of caution in adopting and interpreting the more refined modern methods.
Some Observations on the Causes of Death in Life Assurance Claims
Authors: Dickson Kenneth 
Published: July 2016

SynopsisThe paper is based on the analysis of the causes of death in 10,000 claims which occurred in the quinquennium 1943-1947 in six life offices, three Scottish and three English.These claims are subdivided into two classes of lives, those who reached and those who failed to reach their expectation.The causes of death are arranged in most cases as in the Registrar-General's annual review of England and Wales, and are tabulated in age groups.The increased incidence of some diseases and the decline or disappearance of others are touched upon, whilst special reference is made to the heavy toll exacted by cardio-vascular disease and by cancer.Deaths due directly to the War, both civilian and in the Services, are included in the total number of claims but are omitted from statistical calculations. This applies also to all deaths of female policyholders. A brief reference is made to the relative mortality from certain diseases in those lives who reached their expectations and those who failed to reach it. It is suggested that greater leniency might be extended in certain types of disorders for which proposers are usually rated up, since deaths from such ailments seldom occur.
Gerontology—Implications for Future Mortality Experience
Authors: Comfort Alex 
Published: July 2016

SynopsisUp to the present, medicine has successfully concentrated on the treatment of specific diseases and the successful progress has contributed notably to reductions in mortality rates in early and middle life. This progress has, however, not materially increased the total life span. Future improvements in longevity may therefore come from methods of delaying the “aging” process, rather than from specific advances in preventative medicine. Such methods are known to be effective when applied to the animal world, and the possibility of applying them to human life opens fascinating prospects. The possibilities of, and need for research into these factors are discussed.
The Computer for Investment Research
Authors: Plymen J. , Prevett R. M. 
Published: July 2016

SynopsisThree reports made to the International Congresses of the European Federation of Financial Analysts Societies on the development of investment analysis by computer are discussed in Part I. The 1966 and 1968 reports were mainly concerned with processing investment statistics, pricing individual shares or selecting portfolios by mathematical means. By 1970, however, some of the more elaborate schemes for pricing equities and selecting portfolios had been abandoned, more emphasis being given to data processing of investment statistics and to analysing by computer special categories of investments where a considerable volume of regular investment statistics are available and extensive calculations are required.The authors then proceed to describe two practical computer applications dealing with specialised classes of share. Part II deals with the application of simple statistical techniques to investment trust shares in an attempt to select those that are “cheap” or “dear”. The suggested method, tested for the first nine months of 1971, showed that the shares recommended as “buys” recorded a gain of 4.1% better than the investment trust index, whilst the “sales” underperformed the index to the extent of 6.8%.The finances of the television rental companies have distinct analogies with those of a life assurance business. TV sets have a life span like a mortality experience and their installation costs involve a new business strain; Part III demonstrates how a computer model of a TV rental company can be used to assist the analyst in forecasting future profits, allowing for likely changes in costs, taxes, etc. Similar techniques are, in fact, applicable for the analysis of South African gold mining shares which form a homogeneous group with a considerable volume of regular statistical information (see Part IV).The authors conclude that these computer applications, whilst requiring much further research, offer considerable prospects provided that accurate, reliable and specific input material is available.
Scottish Bankers' Mortality and Marriage Experience, 1950-1966
Authors: Bews R. P. , Limb A. P. , Morrison W. M. , Murray G. M. 
Published: July 2016

SynopsisThis paper presents the results of an investigation into the mortality and marriage experience of six widows' funds of the Scottish Banks over the period 1950 to 1966 and compares the results with similar investigations which have been made in the past. Tables of mortality rates have been produced for bachelors, married men, widowers, married men and widowers combined, all males, wives and widows, and marriage rates have been produced for bachelors, widowers and widows.The examination of the male mortality experience shows a substantial improvement over the previous 1923-43 investigation and in general terms demonstrates that widowers' mortality may be expected to be heavier than that of bachelors which in turn is likely to be heavier than that of married men. Women's mortality also shows considerable improvement but widows' mortality is heavier than wives' mortality at all ages.The trend towards higher marriage rates and towards marriage at younger ages which was so marked in the previous investigation has continued unabated and the marriage rates for bachelors for the period 1962-66, which have been used for calculating the appropriate monetary functions, demonstrate this trend when compared with the rates for the whole period and with the results of previous investigations.Monetary functions to enable valuations to be made of widows' funds at 5% interest by the reversionary method are published in the paper together with the results of valuing a model fund by this method using various assumptions. The result of valuing the model fund using the collective method is shown for comparison.
Analysed Mortality: the English Life no. 8A Tables
Authors: Nathan Eric B. 
Published: July 2016

The earliest mortality tables were constructed from inadequate and relatively defective data. This was obvious to their authors, and the need for fuller, more accurate and more homogeneous data impressed itself upon subsequent constructors of mortality tables, and has materially affected the outlook on mortality tables even up to the present time.Leaving out of account the construction of the Northampton and Carlisle Tables, we find on the one side a series of mortality tables based upon census returns dating from the English Life No. 3 to the English Life No. 8. These tables were constructed by various methods, usually implying that either the deaths and population or the rate of mortality could be expressed by a finite difference curve.
Some Remarks on Scottish Mortality as Experienced in the Years 1936–38, 1947–49
Authors: Tutt L. W. G. 
Published: July 2016

SynopsisThe paper gives a review of some aspects of Scottish mortality experienced in the two trienniums 1936–38 and 1947–49. After an initial consideration of crude and standardized death rates and age-group death rates, mortality rates analysed according to certain grouped causes of death are compared for the two periods of years and for the two sexes and commented upon.Apart from the desirability of considering recent past experience in some detail an additional purpose of the paper is to make a preliminary investigation in connection with the suggestion recently put forward (J. G. Kyd, T.F.A. 21, page 46) that estimates of future Scottish mortality should be made by considering separately a number of causes of death. In the paper the opinion is arrived at that in general there would appear to be no insuperable difficulties in bringing the suggestion to fruition.
Pension Fund Finance
Authors: McKelvey K. M. 
Published: July 2016

SynopsisPart I of the paper considers in relation to Pension Funds the financial problems so much discussed in recent years in a Life Office context, viz:(a) asset distribution by date and by class,(b) financial options against the Fund,and states the author's conclusions.In Part II are presented investment statistics and other information relating to a number of actual Pension Funds whose investments comprise 25% of all non Local Government Funds, some £300,000,000 in 1964.The main conclusions reached in the paper are:(1) that, normally, irredeemable investments should predominate in a Pension Fund portfolio and include a considerable equity share element;(2) that financial options exist, but are of far less potential danger to the Pension Fund than to the Life Office;(3) that, in practice, the Funds investigated are invested shorter than the author would have expected but include a considerable and increasing equity element.
An Experiment in Connection With Life Office Valuation
Authors: Lundie W. , Hancock M. W. 
Published: July 2016

SynopsisThe first part of the paper consists of a mathematical analysis of a method of ensuring solvency in an expanding life office investing only in first-class dated and irredeemable securities on the assumption that the market price structure of dated medium to long term securities may change only in such a way that at any time the gross redemption yield for any particular term to redemption will bear a constant ratio to the yield on irredeemables. This leads to a method of valuation of liabilities which is independent of any subjective estimate of the future rate of interest.The second part of the paper suggests a possible use of this method of valuation in conjunction with the technique of Linear Programming as an aid to the management of a life assurance and annuity fund. This is illustrated by a worked example relating to investment policy, and applications to new business policy and “gearing” are discussed generally.
An Investigation Into the Mortality of Impaired Lives During the Period 1947-1963
Authors: Preston T. W. , Clarke R. D. 
Published: July 2016

SynopsisThe paper is a sequel to an earlier paper by Clarke published in T.F.A. vol. 27, p. 20 and it brings up to date the results of an investigation into the mortality experienced by various classes of impaired lives.For each impairment considered, percentages of actual to expected deaths are shown, the expected deaths being calculated from mortality rates applicable to a corresponding group of standard lives.In a separate section of the paper, the deaths are analysed by cause with a view to establishing what causes of death are responsible for the extra mortality arising among lives suffering from specific impairments.
The Evaluation of Ordinary Shares
Authors: Marshall J. B. 
Published: July 2016

SynopsisThis paper is concerned with the value of ordinary shares to permanent investors whose capital will never be required for any purpose other than investment in stock exchange securites. After tracing the history of ordinary shares over the past forty years, the paper examines methods of valuation which have been suggested by others and in particular extends and attempts to justify one which has been found useful in practice. The qualitative factors to be taken into account in arriving at the valuation are then considered and the paper closes with an expression of hope that more information will be provided, by researchers and others, on these factors in the future.
Studies of Reversionary Bonus Using a Model Office
Authors: Carr P. S. , Forfar D. O. 
Published: July 2016

SynopsisThe paper is the result of work carried out by the authors as members of the Bonus Research Group of the Faculty of Actuaries. The authors designed a computer model of a life office in order to examine the emergence of reversionary bonus under differing conditions. The use of a computer model enabled a dynamic study to be made over many years. The investigations quantified the extent to which the reversionary bonus emerging was affected by the valuation basis, the rate of expansion of the office, the rate of return on the fund, the extent of investment in equities and the office's experience in respect of expenses, withdrawals and mortality. The authors also examined in quantitative terms the extent to which policies would, on the assumptions made, receive more or less than the full share of surplus to which they were entitled as well as examining the size of the valuation estate under differing conditions.
The Flock and the Sheep and Other Essays
Authors: Redington F. M. 
Published: July 2016

This is not so much a paper as a series of loosely-connected essays and it requires explanation.For some years I have felt that my generation had an unusual duty to the history of the profession. The first 180 years of actuarial history no doubt seemed eventful enough at the time but they took place against a stable background when interest rates were seldom outside the range 3% to 5%. But since 1945, say, a turbulence undreamed of in those earlier days has become the commonplace of our activities.
Life Assurance in Four European Countries
Authors: Bennet I. R. , Barclay K. J. , Blakeley A. G. , Crayton F. A. , Darvell J. N. , Gilmour I. , McGregor R. J. W. , Stenlake R. W. 
Published: July 2016

1.1. The European Economic Community forms the world's largest trading block of countries, accounting for approximately one-third of world trade. Legally it consists of:—The European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC); formed 1951.—The European Economic Community (EEC); established by the Treaty of Rome in 1957; and—The European Atomic Energy Community (EURATOM); established by separate treaty at the same time as the EEC.
The Actuarial Background to Investment Policy
Authors: Plymen J. 
Published: July 2016

Nearly 60 years ago, the late C. M. Douglas F.F.A. published a classical paper “The Statistical Groundwork of Investment Policy” (T.F.A. 12 p.173).The main policy consideration, discussed by Douglas, was the extent to which offices should invest in equities. He maintained that funds should only be invested in equities if greater security was therefore obtained. From a study of index numbers covering the period 1924-28 Douglas concluded that share prices were related to the level of business activity i.e. to the progress of the ‘Trade Cycle’; equity prices following the cycle directly, the debenture prices following the cycle inversely, but with a different tempo and interval. If, therefore, an investor could judge the future trend of business activity, a sound investment policy could be pursued.
Reflections on the Roles of State and Occupational Pension Schemes in the United Kingdom
Authors: Low A. J. , Felton P. E. 
Published: July 2016

SynopsisThe paper considers the role which the State should play in the provision of pensions to the retired population. The role of occupational schemes is also considered with particular reference to the restrictions placed on that role by the authorities through the requirements for approval for tax purposes and the cost and level of State pensions. The main features of various State pension schemes which have been proposed in successive White Papers are discussed together with their shortcomings and advantages. The White Paper “Better Pensions” and its implications for the pensions industry are then considered in greater detail.
Spain: An Outsider's View from Within
Authors: Paul D. , Simler R. B. 
Published: July 2016

We both started working in Spain at the end of 1991: one of us in a joint venture life company between a Spanish health insurer and a U.K. life office, and the other in an international actuarial consultancy.At the time of writing this paper we can only claim in the region of “4 man years” of experience of Spain. Therefore we do not pretend to offer an authoritative view of Spanish insurance or pensions, or of its actuarial profession. Clearly such a text would be better prepared by Spanish actuaries, or other long-standing practitioners of the Spanish market.
With Profits Maturity Payouts, Asset Shares and Smoothing
Authors: Eastwood A. M. , Ledlie M. C. , Macdonald A. S. , Pike D. M. 
Published: July 2016

1.1.1 The Bonus and Valuation Research Group of the Faculty of Actuaries began the work which eventually led to this paper towards the end of 1991. About this time there was considerable speculation that levels of maturity payouts on with profits policies might be significantly in excess of the level that could be justified by the actual investment earnings underlying the policies. The initial aims of the research group were to:(a) examine this claim;(b) consider to what extent overpayment, if any, could be explained by the smoothing methods that might have been used by offices; and(c) examine the practical consequences of continuing to adopt those smoothing methods.