bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
How complex should models be? Comparing correlative and mechanistic range dynamics models
Authors: Fordham Damien A. , Bertelsmeier Cleo , Brook Barry W. , Early Regan , Neto Dora , Brown Stuart C. , Ollier Sébastien , Araújo Miguel B. 
Published: November 2017

AbstractCriticism has been levelled at climate‐change‐induced forecasts of species range shifts that do not account explicitly for complex population dynamics. The relative importance of such dynamics under climate change is, however, undetermined because direct tests comparing the performance of demographic models vs. simpler ecological niche models are still lacking owing to difficulties in evaluating forecasts using real‐world data. We provide the first comparison of the skill of coupled ecological‐niche‐population models and ecological niche models in predicting documented shifts in the ranges of 20 British breeding bird species across a 40‐year period. Forecasts from models calibrated with data centred on 1970 were evaluated using data centred on 2010. We found that more complex coupled ecological‐niche‐population models (that account for dispersal and metapopulation dynamics) tend to have higher predictive accuracy in forecasting species range shifts than structurally simpler models that only account for variation in climate. However, these better forecasts are achieved only if ecological responses to climate change are simulated without static snapshots of historic land use, taken at a single point in time. In contrast, including both static land use and dynamic climate variables in simpler ecological niche models improve forecasts of observed range shifts. Despite being less skilful at predicting range changes at the grid‐cell level, ecological niche models do as well, or better, than more complex models at predicting the magnitude of relative change in range size. Therefore, ecological niche models can provide a reasonable first approximation of the magnitude of species' potential range shifts, especially when more detailed data are lacking on dispersal dynamics, demographic processes underpinning population performance, and change in land cover.
Antarctic emerald rockcod have the capacity to compensate for warming when uncoupled from CO2‐acidification
Authors: Davis Brittany E. , Flynn Erin E. , Miller Nathan A. , Nelson Frederick A. , Fangue Nann A. , Todgham Anne E. 
Published: November 2017

AbstractIncreases in atmospheric CO2 levels and associated ocean changes are expected to have dramatic impacts on marine ecosystems. Although the Southern Ocean is experiencing some of the fastest rates of change, few studies have explored how Antarctic fishes may be affected by co‐occurring ocean changes, and even fewer have examined early life stages. To date, no studies have characterized potential trade‐offs in physiology and behavior in response to projected multiple climate change stressors (ocean acidification and warming) on Antarctic fishes. We exposed juvenile emerald rockcod Trematomus bernacchii to three PCO2 treatments (~450, ~850, and ~1,200 μatm PCO2) at two temperatures (−1 or 2°C). After 2, 7, 14, and 28 days, metrics of physiological performance including cardiorespiratory function (heart rate [fH] and ventilation rate [fV]), metabolic rate (), and cellular enzyme activity were measured. Behavioral responses, including scototaxis, activity, exploration, and escape response were assessed after 7 and 14 days. Elevated PCO2 independently had little impact on either physiology or behavior in juvenile rockcod, whereas warming resulted in significant changes across acclimation time. After 14 days, fH, fV and significantly increased with warming, but not with elevated PCO2. Increased physiological costs were accompanied by behavioral alterations including increased dark zone preference up to 14%, reduced activity by 12%, as well as reduced escape time suggesting potential trade‐offs in energetics. After 28 days, juvenile rockcod demonstrated a degree of temperature compensation as fV, , and cellular metabolism significantly decreased following the peak at 14 days; however, temperature compensation was only evident in the absence of elevated PCO2. Sustained increases in fV and after 28 days exposure to elevated PCO2 indicate additive (fV) and synergistic () interactions occurred in combination with warming. Stressor‐induced energetic trade‐offs in physiology and behavior may be an important mechanism leading to vulnerability of Antarctic fishes to future ocean change.
Both life‐history plasticity and local adaptation will shape range‐wide responses to climate warming in the tundra plant Silene acaulis
Authors: DeMarche Megan L. , Doak Daniel F. , Morris William F. 
Published: November 2017

AbstractMany predictions of how climate change will impact biodiversity have focused on range shifts using species‐wide climate tolerances, an approach that ignores the demographic mechanisms that enable species to attain broad geographic distributions. But these mechanisms matter, as responses to climate change could fundamentally differ depending on the contributions of life‐history plasticity vs. local adaptation to species‐wide climate tolerances. In particular, if local adaptation to climate is strong, populations across a species’ range—not only those at the trailing range edge—could decline sharply with global climate change. Indeed, faster rates of climate change in many high latitude regions could combine with local adaptation to generate sharper declines well away from trailing edges. Combining 15 years of demographic data from field populations across North America with growth chamber warming experiments, we show that growth and survival in a widespread tundra plant show compensatory responses to warming throughout the species’ latitudinal range, buffering overall performance across a range of temperatures. However, populations also differ in their temperature responses, consistent with adaptation to local climate, especially growing season temperature. In particular, warming begins to negatively impact plant growth at cooler temperatures for plants from colder, northern populations than for those from warmer, southern populations, both in the field and in growth chambers. Furthermore, the individuals and maternal families with the fastest growth also have the lowest water use efficiency at all temperatures, suggesting that a trade‐off between growth and water use efficiency could further constrain responses to forecasted warming and drying. Taken together, these results suggest that populations throughout species’ ranges could be at risk of decline with continued climate change, and that the focus on trailing edge populations risks overlooking the largest potential impacts of climate change on species’ abundance and distribution.
Multifarious anchovy and sardine regimes in the Humboldt Current System during the last 150 years
Authors: Salvatteci Renato , Field David , Gutiérrez Dimitri , Baumgartner Tim , Ferreira Vicente , Ortlieb Luc , Sifeddine Abdel , Grados Daniel , Bertrand Arnaud 
Published: November 2017

AbstractThe Humboldt Current System (HCS) has the highest production of forage fish in the world, although it is highly variable and the future of the primary component, anchovy, is uncertain in the context of global warming. Paradigms based on late 20th century observations suggest that large‐scale forcing controls decadal‐scale fluctuations of anchovy and sardine across different boundary currents of the Pacific. We develop records of anchovy and sardine fluctuations since 1860 AD using fish scales from multiple sites containing laminated sediments and compare them with Pacific basin‐scale and regional indices of ocean climate variability. Our records reveal two main anchovy and sardine phases with a timescale that is not consistent with previously proposed periodicities. Rather, the regime shifts in the HCS are related to 3D habitat changes driven by changes in upwelling intensity from both regional and large‐scale forcing. Moreover, we show that a long‐term increase in coastal upwelling translates via a bottom‐up mechanism to top predators suggesting that the warming climate, at least up to the start of the 21st century, was favorable for fishery productivity in the HCS.
Maize harvest index and water use efficiency can be improved by inhibition of gibberellin biosynthesis
Authors: Hütsch B. W. , Schubert S. 
Published: November 2017

AbstractPossibilities to improve maize harvest index and nutrient utilization efficiency by application of plant growth regulators were investigated. In container experiments, the effects of different growth regulators on the development of the maize (Zea mays L.) cultivars Pioneer 3906 and Fabregas were tested. Paclobutrazol (PAC) and chlorocholine chloride (CCC), two inhibitors of gibberellin biosynthesis, as well as gibberellic acid (GA3) were applied at growth stage V5. Three weeks after application of PAC, shoot growth of both maize cultivars was strongly affected with a significant decrease in plant height in the PAC treatment by 44% and 36% for Pioneer 3906 and Fabregas, respectively. The growth‐retarded plants had higher leaf areas and reduced transpiration rates. The higher shoot growth after GA3 application was accompanied by a reduction in leaf area and an increase in transpiration rate during 1 week before anthesis. CCC treatment showed no significant effects on plant height, leaf area and transpiration rate. The PAC‐treated cultivar Pioneer 3906 produced several cobs per plant, which were mainly barren at maturity. However, PAC application to Fabregas resulted in just one cob per plant with good kernel development and a grain yield, which was not significantly reduced in comparison with the control. With this similar grain yield in combination with a straw yield decrease of 32%, the harvest index was significantly improved by 12%. In addition, with PAC‐treated Fabregas plants, a 19% increased water use efficiency of the grain (WUEgrain) during the critical period of kernel setting was achieved. In this maize cultivar, CCC application also improved harvest index by 5%, but no effect on WUEgrain occurred. GA3 treatment decreased harvest index of both maize cultivars, and it either reduced WUEgrain (Pioneer 3906) or showed no effect (Fabregas). Utilization efficiencies of N, P and K were not increased with growth regulator application, even in the PAC‐treated Fabregas plants with a significantly improved allocation of assimilates to the grain, mirrored by the higher harvest index. The results indicate that fertilizer applications must be adjusted to the reduced demand of growth‐retarded plants, most likely leading to higher nutrient utilization efficiencies.
Periventricular White Matter Hyperintensities and Functional Decline
Authors: Dhamoon Mandip S. , Cheung Ying‐Kuen , Bagci Ahmet , Alperin Noam , Sacco Ralph L. , Elkind Mitchell S. V. , Wright Clinton B. 
Published: November 2017

Background/ObjectivesWe previously showed that global brain white matter hyperintensity volume (WMHV) was associated with accelerated long‐term functional decline. The objective of the current study was to determine whether WMHV in particular brain regions is more predictive of functional decline.DesignProspective population‐based study.SettingNorthern Manhattan magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) study.ParticipantsIndividuals free of stroke at baseline (N = 1,195; mean age 71 ± 9; n = 460 (39%) male).MeasurementsParticipants had brain MRI with axial T1, T2, and fluid attenuated inversion recovery sequences. Volumetric WMHV distribution across 14 brain regions (brainstem; cerebellum; bilateral frontal, occipital, temporal, and parietal lobes; and bilateral anterior and posterior periventricular white matter (PVWM)) was determined using a combination of bimodal image intensity distribution and atlas‐based methods. Participants had annual functional assessments using the Barthel Index (BI) (range 0–100) over a mean of 7.3 years and were followed for stroke, myocardial infarction (MI), and mortality. Because there were multiple collinear variables, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression–selected regional WMHV variables most associated with outcomes and adjusted generalized estimating equations models were used to estimate associations with baseline BI and change over time.ResultsUsing LASSO regularization, only right anterior PVWM was found to meet criteria for selection, and each standard deviation greater WMHV was associated with accelerated functional decline of 0.95 additional BI points per year (95% confidence interval (CI) = −1.20 to −0.70) in an unadjusted model, −0.92 points per year (95% CI = −1.18 to −0.67) with baseline covariate adjustment, and −0.87 points per year (95% CI = −1.12 to −0.62) after adjusting for incident stroke and MI.ConclusionIn this large population‐based study with long‐term repeated measures of function, periventricular WMHV was particularly associated with accelerated functional decline.
Relationships between atypical sensory processing patterns, maladaptive behaviour and maternal stress in Spanish children with autism spectrum disorder
Authors: Nieto C. , López B. , Gandía H. 
Published: November 2017

AbstractBackgroundThis study investigated sensory processing in a sample of Spanish children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Specifically, the study aimed to explore (1) the prevalence and distribution of atypical sensory processing patterns, (2) the relationship between adaptive and maladaptive behaviour with atypical sensory processing and (3) the possible relationship between sensory subtype and maternal stress.MethodsThe short sensory profile 2 (Dunn 2014) and the vineland adaptive behavior scale (Sparrow et al. 1984) were administered to examine the sensory processing difficulties and maladaptive behaviours of 45 children with ASD aged 3 to 14; their mothers also completed the parenting stress index‐short form (Abidin 1995).ResultsAtypical sensory features were found in 86.7% of the children; avoider and sensor being the two most common patterns. No significant relationship was found between atypical sensory processing and adaptive behaviour. However, the analysis showed a strong relationship between sensory processing and maladaptive behaviour. Both maladaptive behaviour and sensory processing difficulties correlated significantly with maternal stress although maternal stress was predicted only by the sensory variable, and in particular by the avoider pattern.ConclusionsThe findings suggest that sensory features in ASD may be driving the high prevalence of parental stress in carers. They also suggest that the effect on parental stress that has been attributed traditionally to maladaptive behaviours may be driven by sensory difficulties. The implications of these findings are discussed in relation to the development of interventions and the need to explore contextual and cultural variables as possible sources of variability.
Can interpersonal contact help improve attitudes toward soldiers with intellectual disability? An Israeli study
Authors: Werner S. 
Published: November 2017

AbstractBackgroundIt has been argued that interpersonal contact is the best intervention for reducing negative attitudes and discrimination toward individuals with intellectual disabilities (ID). In Israel, the Equal in Uniform project makes it possible for individuals with ID to serve alongside soldiers without ID in ordinary military units in the Israeli Defense Forces. The project provided the opportunity to examine the effect of contact on the attitudes of soldiers without ID.MethodsData analyses are based on data collected from 220 soldiers without ID via a self‐administered questionnaire based on the Multidimensional Attitudes Scale. Of these, 138 were in contact with soldiers with ID as part of the project.ResultsA mediation model showed that the impact of contact with a soldier with ID on withdrawal behaviour was mediated by cognitive attributions and negative affect. Contact was directly associated with prosocial behaviour.DiscussionResults support the importance of contact between soldiers with and without ID to bring about improved attitudes toward the former.
Characteristics of prisoners with intellectual disabilities
Authors: Chaplin E. , McCarthy J. , Underwood L. , Forrester A. , Hayward H. , Sabet J. , Mills R. , Young S. , Asherson P. , Murphy D. 
Published: November 2017

AbstractBackgroundPrevious studies have found high rates of intellectual disabilities (ID) in prison. However, little is understood about prisoners with ID. This study aimed to identify prisoners with ID and compare their characteristics with prisoners without neurodevelopmental disorders with regard to demographic profile, mental health, suicide risk and offences.MethodThis was a descriptive, cross‐sectional study carried out using face‐to‐face interviews with 240 participants in a London Category C prison. Standardised tools were used to assess prisoners for ID and mental disorder.ResultsThe study identified 18 prisoners as having ID. Participants with ID were less likely to be from a black or minority ethnic background, be over 35 years of age or have any qualifications. They were more likely to have been single, homeless or unemployed before coming into prison. Prisoners with ID were significantly more likely to have mental health problems and 25% had thought about suicide in the last month and 63% had attempted suicide in the past. Prisoners with ID were also more likely to be housed in the vulnerable prisoners' wing and significantly more likely to have committed robbery than other prisoners.ConclusionsThe findings confirm the presence of significant numbers of people with ID with high levels of mental illness in a male prison. Services across the CJS are required for this group, specifically, there is a need for raised awareness among those working in prison about ID and improved skills to recognise offenders with ID and address major gaps in current healthcare provision in prison.
Skin care and cosmeceuticals: Attitudes and trends among trainees and educators
Authors: Feetham H Jill , Jeong H Sam , McKesey Jacqueline , Wickless Heather , Jacobe Heidi 
Published: November 2017

SummaryIntroductionPatients often seek skin care recommendations from their dermatologist. The objective of this study was to determine the degree of education dermatology residents receive on skin care and cosmeceutical products, the source of education, and the attitude of trainees and their educators toward skin care and cosmeceuticals.MethodsA cross‐sectional survey of dermatology residents and faculty via an online survey administered June 2015 and August 2015, respectively.ResultsIn total, 104 dermatology residents and 50 dermatology faculty members completed the survey. Among the dermatology residents and faculty, equal distribution was represented across the country. The majority of residents and faculty (62% and 69%, respectively) report discussing skin care with up to 25% of their patients. Among resident participants, 76.5% “agree or strongly agree” that skin care and cosmeceutical education should be part of their education and the majority of residents (74.5%) report their education has been “too little or nonexistent” during residency. In contrast, the majority of the faculty (60%) reports their resident education is “just the right amount or too much” (P < .001).ConclusionsSkin care and cosmeceutical recommendations are often discussed in dermatology visits. Dermatology residents feel that education on these products should be a part of their residency training.
Labour demand and supply changes in Norway following an imposed harmonization of geographically differentiated payroll‐tax rates
Authors: Dale‐Olsen Harald 
Published: November 2017

AbstractThe payroll tax is an important source for public financial revenues. Utilizing Norwegian population‐wide linked‐employer‐employee register‐data for 2001–12 while exploiting the harmonizing of the geographically differentiated payroll tax imposed by the EU, I show that payroll tax increases are shifted onto workers’ hourly wages thus reducing these. Annual earnings also drop as the payroll tax grows. Neither unemployment nor employment levels are affected in the short‐run, but the payroll‐tax levels and the number of sick leave days appear positively correlated. In the long run, entry into retirement and DI rolls increase. Thus the tax hike induces the withdrawal of workers from the labour force.
The influence of lipid‐extraction and long‐term DMSO preservation on carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) isotope values in cetacean skin
Authors: Newsome Seth D. , Chivers Susan J. , Berman Kowalewski Michelle 
Published: November 2017

AbstractStable isotope analysis (SIA) has rapidly become a useful tool to study the ecology of wild animal populations, especially for elusive, wide‐ranging predators like marine mammals. The development of projectile biopsy techniques resulted in the collection of thousands of cetacean tissue samples that were archived in a dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) solution for long‐term, multidecadal preservation. Here we examine the influence of DMSO preservation on carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) values by comparing a set of paired delphinid skin samples stored frozen without preservative and in DMSO for up to 22 yr. Treatment of paired frozen and DMSO‐preserved skin in a 2:1 chloroform:methanol solution yielded similar δ13C and δ15N values, revealing that DMSO and lipid contamination have similar isotopic effects on skin, and that these effects can be removed using routine lipid‐extraction methods. Further, amino acid concentrations in DMSO‐preserved and frozen skin tissue were similar, providing independent evidence of minimal protein alteration due to preservation. Access to a rich archive of skin samples preserved in DMSO will expand our ability to examine temporal and spatial variability in the isotope values of cetaceans, which will aid our understanding of how their ecology has been influenced by historical changes in environmental conditions.
Elderly patients with glomerular diseases and IgA nephropathy
Authors: Lin Jing , Cheng Zhen , Qian Qi 
Published: November 2017

Summary at a GlanceAs the population ages, large numbers of elderly patients will present with kidney diseases. Kidney biopsy for elderly patients is generally well tolerated and informative. Compared with younger adults, IgA nephropathy in the elderly carries a poor prognosis. In patients with intercurrent infections, IgA‐dominant postinfectious GN should be carefully differentiated from idiopathic IgA nephropathy. Existing ESRD and mortality prediction models/scoring systems for IgA nephropathy may not be generalized to elderly patients.
Repugnant Accuracy
Authors: Talbot Brian 
Published: November 2017

AbstractAccuracy‐first epistemology is an approach to formal epistemology which takes accuracy to be a measure of epistemic utility and attempts to vindicate norms of epistemic rationality by showing how conformity with them is beneficial. If accuracy‐first epistemology can actually vindicate any epistemic norms, it must adopt a plausible account of epistemic value. Any such account must avoid the epistemic version of Derek Parfit's “repugnant conclusion.” I argue that the only plausible way of doing so is to say that accurate credences in certain propositions have no, or almost no, epistemic value. I prove that this is incompatible with standard accuracy‐first arguments for probabilism, and argue that there is no way for accuracy‐first epistemology to show that all credences of all agents should be coherent.