bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
The Chukchi Sea Planning Area, Alaska: Structural Development, Basin Analysis and Hydrocarbon Potential
Authors: Lerche I. , Cao S. , Tang J. , Liu J. 
Published: January 2017

Seismic stratigraphic and seismic fault evidence both show that the Central Chukchi basin is a north-trending, fault-controlled basin, which developed at the beginning of early Mississippian time. About 20 km thickness of sediments have been deposited in the basin. Using a simple flexural model a series of 3-dimensional basement motion patterns with time was produced. From these characteristic patterns two stages of basement evolution can be recognized: the first is basement subsidence controlled by regional extensional fault systems during the period from early Mississippian to later Jurassic: the second stage is basement evolution as two nearly separate blocks from the beginning of Early Cretaceous. The west block development is related to reactivation of the old fault system, while the subsidence of the east block is caused by tectonism and associated sediment loading due to progressive thrusting northward of the Brooks Range. Quantitative basin modeling techniques show that many uncertainties occur when applying mathematical and computer models to simulate a sedimentary basin, especially in a frontier area where only limited data are available. In this study, quantitative basin modeling techniques applied to the Chukchi Sea Planning Area, Alaska, demonstrate how uncertainty can be handled. The Chukchi Sea Planning Area encompasses about 127,000 square kilometers of the northwestern Alaska continental shelf and lies offshore of the Natural Petroleum Reserve in Alaska. Only seismic data and a few remote onshore wells are available in the Planning Area. Compared with the North Slope of Alaska, the Planning Area has had a significantly different structural history. In addition, most of the strata in the Area are currently thermally mature to overmature and in the stage of generating dry gas. The prospective areas for oil are the margins of the central Chukchi Basin, such as the Chukchi platform, Herald Arch and northeast part of the basin.
A Probabilistic Interpretation of US Hydrocarbon Supply Shortfall, 1990-2000
Authors: Lerche I. 
Published: January 2017

Ten results of assessments of hydrocarbon supply shortfall over the next decade are considered using a cumulative probabilistic framework. Within resolution of the results, it is shown that, at a 90% confidence level, it is most likely (2/3 chance) that the shortfall supply will be less than about 2.2 million barrels per day by the year 2000, it is unlikely (90% chance) that the shortfall supply will exceed about 3.7 million barrels per day, but it is equally unlikely (90% chance) that the shortfall supply will be less than about 1 million barrels per day. This probabilistic method for addressing model uncertainties then permits corporate and government decisions to be buttressed by a firmer footing than might have been thought to be the case based solely on the extreme ranges of the 10 individual results.
U.S. Refining — Changing Supply and Slate Requirements
Authors: McSpadden Charles L. 
Published: January 2017

With international refining industries facing a number of challenges in the near future, it seems clear that those who survive will be ones with the ability to turn serious problems into real opportunities. In the U.S. refining industry, challenges such as slow growth in product demand, increasing reliance on imported raw materials, and continued exposure to offshore exporting refineries will have critical effects on the ability of the industry to capitalize on available opportunities. Other challenges include the ability to tolerate continued declines in crude oil quality and the serious monetary questions related to compliance with environmental legislation, including air, soil, and water clean-up. This paper presents the challenges which the U.S. refining industry faces over the coming years, and seeks to address those issues which will impact the success or failure of the industry as a whole. The paper begins with a focus on the demand for U.S. petroleum products, encompassing brief historical data and forecasts of demand for the next few years. Closely related to demand is the subject of U.S. refinery operations, including product import and yield patterns. In this vein, the paper offers forecasts of crude runs to stills, as well as forecasts of capacity changes. Because profitability of U.S. refineries is affected by raw material costs, the paper next probes the possibilities resulting from world crude oil price fluctuations, considering the reemergence of Iraq as a market player. Forecasts of profit margins for U.S. refiners in 1998 are also offered. Turning to crude oil supplies and qualities, the paper examines the downward trend of U.S. crude oil production, providing a forecast of the decline by 1998. An associated trend, that of U.S. crude oil imports, is also evaluated, with a discussion of the origins of these imports included. The paper then presents a brief discussion of the principal recipient of Canadian crude oil exports, the U.S. Midwest (PADD II), encompassing statistics for refinery runs and deliveries of crudes. Volumes of Canadian crude exported to the region are also presented, as well as crude oil qualities in the region. Finally, heavy crude oil prices are examined because of the degradation of average crude oil qualities consumed by U.S. refiners. Spreads between light and heavy crudes are contemplated, with a forecast for the current-dollar WTI/Maya price spread provided.
Corporate Signaling with Dividends, Stock Repurchases, and Accounting Disclosures: An Empirical Study
Authors: Gelb David S. 
Published: January 2017

This paper examines corporate signaling practices in a framework that includes dividends, stock repurchases, and accounting disclosures. Using analysts' ratings of firms' disclosure practices as a proxy for the level of accounting disclosures, this study investigates the substitutability among these signals. Prior studies have questioned how costly signals, such as dividends and stock repurchases, coexist with presumably less costly alternatives, such as annual reports or other accounting disclosures. The signaling models in the finance literature generally assume that because of the problems of moral hazard, accounting disclosures are not viewed credibly by investors. This study presents evidence for an alternative explanation. For some firms, dividends and stock repurchases may be less costly than accounting disclosures. Prior studies model the trade-off the firm faces between the benefits of conveying favorable information to the financial markets and its need to protect proprietary information from potential competitors. Consistent with the predictions of these studies, my results indicate that “good news” firms that operate in markets with lower industry concentration ratios, and therefore lower entry barriers, are more likely to convey favorable news via dividends or stock repurchases instead of accounting disclosures. These firms appear to rely on dividend and stock repurchase signals as a means of conveying favorable news to investors without releasing specific proprietary information.
A Lintnerian Linear Accounting Valuation Model
Authors: Callen Jeffrey L. , Morel Mindy 
Published: January 2017

This paper develops and tests a linear valuation accounting model based on Lintner's (1956) dividend model. Two test methodologies are employed on a firm-level time-series basis. First, abstracting from the nonlinear relationships among the parameters, the information dynamic and valuation equation are estimated by linear OLS and linear SUR. The estimated equations are evaluated by reference to the sign and value predictions of the model. Second, recognizing the underlying nonlinear relationships among the parameters, the Lintnerian system of equations is estimated by nonlinear OLS and nonlinear SUR. All parameters are estimated endogenously at the firm level, including each firm's cost of capital. The resulting parameter estimates are evaluated for statistical and, in the case of costs of capital, for economic significance. Results of the first (linear) methodology by and large confirm the validity of the Lintner model. The signs and values of the estimated coefficients are consistent with the predictions of the Lintner model except that the (mean) estimated book value coefficient in the price equation exceeds its theoretical upper bound. The results of the second (nonlinear) methodology are somewhat more problematic. Although the Lintner model yields statistically significant firm-level costs of capital, these estimates are not economically significant for the sample period.
Does Analyst Behavior Explain Market Mispricing of Foreign Earnings for U.S. Multinational Firms?
Authors: Khurana Inder K. , Pereira Raynolde , Raman K. K. 
Published: January 2017

The general theme of examining components of earnings is of interest to both practitioners and academics, given its potential for allowing investors and analysts to more precisely forecast earnings and estimate firm value. For U.S. multinational firms, prior research indicates that while the foreign and domestic earnings components are value relevant, the market fails to fully incorporate the higher persistence of foreign earnings. However, findings of potential market mispricing can be attributed to alternative explanations such as unidentified risk factors or flaws in research design. In this study, we seek to circumvent these concerns by examining whether financial analysts (who are deemed to be sophisticated users of financial statements and act as intermediaries between companies and investors) fully incorporate the time-series properties of foreign and domestic earnings in formulating their earnings forecasts. Similar to market-based studies, we find that analysts do distinguish between foreign and domestic earnings. However, we find that analysts also fail to fully incorporate the higher persistence of foreign earnings. Finally, we find that analysts' underestimation of foreign earnings persistence appears to parallel the similar finding at the market level. We discuss how our findings relate to the prior literature, and what they imply for accounting research and practice. Specifically, our study complements previous research which appears to undermine the notion of an efficient market. Also, we find that analysts' bias is in the direction of lowering earnings expectations by underestimating the persistence of foreign earnings, which suggests that collusion with management to inflate earnings expectations is not a plausible explanation for the bias. Collectively, our findings suggest analysts' lack of effectiveness as information intermediaries.
A Retrospective Analysis of Technology Use Patterns of Students with Autism over a Five-Year Period
Authors: Mirenda Pat , Wilk Diana , Carson Paul 
Published: January 2017

Since 1993, students with autism in British Columbia schools have received technology supports through a provincial government initiative. This retrospective, exploratory study involved a file review of students with autism who participated in this initiative over a five-year period. The following questions were addressed. Who were the students with autism to whom technology was provided? What type(s) of technology did they receive? What were the profiles of students who received specific types of technology? For which educational goal areas was technology used? How successful was it? Results suggested that the majority of students received technology for educational participation while a smaller number received voice output communication aids; some students received both types of technology. The primary goals for which technology was used were related to writing, expressive communication, and social interaction. When numerical “success scores” were assigned to teachers' annual reports of the outcomes of technology use, 60% of the students were assigned scores suggesting successful or very successful use, and only 12% were scored as having little or no success. Success scores did not appear to be related to students' cognitive ability, but students who received technology at a young age appeared to experience more success than those who received it as adolescents. The preliminary results are discussed in terms of the potential for positive outcomes of technology use by students with autism and the need for additional research in this area.
e-Learning: A Programmatic Research Construct for the Future
Authors: Meyen Edward L. , Aust Ron , Gauch John M. , Hinton H. Scott , Isaacson Robert E. , Smith Sean J. , Tee Meng Yew 
Published: January 2017

The Internet and its applications in education and industry have significantly influenced how we teach and learn. This has all occurred as a consequence of emerging technologies and the demands for online instruction by consumers. In the midst of this environment of rapid growth, a new form of pedagogy has emerged. However, much of it is not the result of research. This paper addresses the need for a conceptual approach to researching, e-learning instructional design and the technologies employed as a basis for e-learning. A programmatic research construct is offered as a structure for building a conceptual model. Three categories of variables are considered in building the construct. They include outcome, in situ, and independent variables. The intent of the paper is to engage researchers and developers in a process of further defining the variables and translating them into research questions that might serve as guidelines in building the literature base for the pedagogy of online instruction.
Law, Labour, and Legitimacy: The Complexion of WTO
Authors: Mohanty Tapan R , Khan Adil Hasan , Kamal Gaurav 
Published: January 2017

The WTO as an institution was set up ‘to help trade flow as freely as possible,’ thus ensuring smooth passage towards economic globalization but, unfortunately, this has not been the case. The provisions and instrumentality of WTO have been used to scuttle the independence of developing nation-states and disempowering them economically. The fissure between the developed and the developing nations has been broadened due to the vexing issue of labour standardization that has created a major hurdle in defining and describing the ambit and access of WTO. This issue has haunted the WTO since its inception in Marrakash way back in 1994, and has been identified as the major rallying point for the developing countries from Seattle to Cancun. One of the main issues that has emerged in this conflict is the linkage between labour standards and trade. This issue has a bearing on the structural and legal foundations of the very organization (WTO). This article seeks to examine the arguments given by both sides of the debate. India for its part has played a crucial role in this global standoff by being one of the main leaders of the developing nations. Given its transitional economic status, labour standards do present it with a ‘Catch-22’ situation. One must not commit the error of considering its reasons for opposing the linkage between trade and labour standards as being the same as all other developing nations since a number of factors has resulted in India adopting this course. Certain emerging factors like the fear of Chinese goods flooding the markets and the EU and American unilateral enforcement might force India to possibly rethink its posture. To conclude, it can be stated that in this era of American unilateralism, global institutions like the WTO are faced with the risk of extinction. The tendency to promote homogenization of trade through the hegemony of WTO smacks of arrogance and unilaterism that is simply unacceptable in a plural world setting. Both sides to the conflict must necessarily make some concessions with regard to labour standards in order to prevent this from taking place. To sum up, the major issues discussed in the paper are as follows: The provisos and instrumentality of WTO have been consistently used to scuttle the independence of developing nation-states and disempowering them eco- nomically. As a result, the chasm between the developed and the developing nations is becoming wider and wider. India for its part has played a crucial role in this global standoff by being one of the main leaders of the developing nations. But, it alone can do very little to alter the hegemony and, hence, it has to form a block with nation-states placed in similar positions a la Brazil. The issue of labour standards needs to be addressed both at the level of ILO and WTO so that the member countries can arrive at a broad consensus. Efforts should be directed at addressing the ethical, environmental, and social issues along the core economic concerns in order to create a sustainable, equal world system.
Indication of Overreaction with or without Stock Specific Public Announcements in Indian Stock market
Authors: Khatua Sitangshu , Pradhan H K 
Published: January 2017

Stock market overreacts to both anticipated and unanticipated stock-specific news. But even in the absence of any firm-specific news, evidences of extreme price changes have been observed in the stock market. This particular phenomenon creates the need of further study to examine the existence of overreaction even if there is no specific public news in the market. The present study tries to find out how stocks overreact in the case of unspecified events in comparison to specified news in the Indian stock market. Specified events can be monitored up to a certain extent because of their known and repetitive nature. The magnitude of uniqueness of the unspecified events increases uncertainty. Information diffusion is more asymmetric, which leads to more stock market overreaction. The study also examines whether there is a relationship between the magnitude of price reversals and the magnitude of gain or loss in the stock market return. Significant cumulative abnormal returns are found, indicating the existence of an overreaction effect. It is also found that the magnitude of price reversal is inversely proportional to the stock return during the event period. The overreaction effect continues up to about two days after the event date, for the present sample. Thus, the study provides an understanding of overreaction effects, which would enable investors to prepare trading strategies for higher returns. It can be said that the Indian stocks show strong overreaction and reversal effect. It shows that a trading strategy can be used to make contrarian profit from the overreaction and reversal exhibited by the Indian stocks. An investor could buy the largest percentage losers stocks or sell largest percentage gainers stocks, then sell the former one and buy the latter one after two trading days. In this way, the optimum utilization of overreaction effects may increase investors' return. Overreaction is more prominent in the case of unspecified events rather than specified events. Stock prices overreact to private news but underreact to subsequent public announcements. Overreaction increases due to information asymmetry and leakage. In the case of any macro/global issues, overreaction is also more because of market integration and globalization.
The Impact of Derivative Trading on the Liquidity of Stocks
Authors: Narasimhan M S , Kalra Shalu 
Published: January 2017

Liquidity is an important factor for smooth trading for all assets including equities traded in the stock markets. Stock exchanges enable buyers and sellers to come together for transaction and in the process reduce the search cost and friction. Higher liquidity motivates more investors to participate in the stock market. Introduction of derivatives of the underlying stock increases the opportunity set available to investors and hence affect the liquidity of the underlying stock. This study examines the impact of derivative trading on the liquidity of underlying stock using price impact measure of liquidity. The price impact measure of liquidity, which actually measures illiquidity, is given by the average daily ratio of absolute return of the stock to the daily volume over a period of time. The advantage of this measure is that it is based on the observed price changes associated with trades. Two time periods have been chosen to examine the short-term and long-term impact of derivative listing on liquidity of underlying stocks. The first time period is one month pre- and post-listing and the second time period is one year pre- and post-listing. The results of this study show a shift in the volume from cash market to derivative market, decline in the number of trades, and lower volatility after the introduction of derivative trading. The illiquidity of the stocks also increased in the short run after the introduction of derivative trading and this is definitely not a desirable outcome of introduction of derivative trading. The sample has been divided into four quartiles on the basis of pre-liquidity levels to examine whether the change in liquidity is affected by the pre liquidity levels of the underlying stock. The results show that the impact of derivative trading on long-term liquidity of the market depends on the level of liquidity prior to the introduction of derivative trading. They also show an improvement in long-term liquidity after derivative trading when the liquidity of stocks prior to derivative trading was not high. In other words, derivative listing improved the liquidity of illiquid stocks significantly and served one of the basic objectives of risk management. On the other hand, long-term liquidity was marginally affected if the stocks were already liquid and it is not a matter of concern.
Fraud Risk Prediction in Merchant-Bank Relationship using Regression Modeling
Authors: Agarwal Nishant , Sharma Meghna 
Published: January 2017

Banking industry has gone through one of the worst crisis in recent times, and is still recovering from the after-shocks. However, there were a lot of learnings that banks would have taken away from this crisis. One of them is the need for a robust risk management system. The crisis dealt a blow to the banking system, catching them off guard when it came to foreseeing the risk. Banks, in the credit card business, face financial risk in the form of both credit risk and fraud risk. Sharma and Agarwal (2013) proposed a model for predicting the credit risk from the merchants. This paper builds upon their technique to predict the fraud risk posed by the merchants to the banks. Fraud risk is an important aspect of risk management systems, particularly in the credit space. The uncertainty surrounding the receipt of paybacks calls for designing robust risk prediction models. Fraud risk is very different from credit risk because fraud risk does not follow a pattern. It happens suddenly, and may not always have a trend before it happens. This creates a need for separate model for fraud risk prediction. This paper develops a fraud risk prediction model that uses logistic regression technique, deployed using SAS. The setup of the study is the merchant-bank relationship in the credit card industry. The model developed in this paper triggers on a transaction level, and assigns a ‘probability score of default (PF) to each merchant for a possible fraud risk whenever a transaction is done at the merchant. Such a score warns the management in advance of probable future losses on merchant accounts. Banks can rank order merchants based on their PF score, and instead of working on the entire merchant portfolio, they can focus on the relatively riskier set of merchants. The PF model is validated by comparing the actual defaults with those predicted by the model and a good alignment is found between the two. The results show that the model can capture 62 percent frauds in the first decile when the transactions are sorted by the probability of fraud computed by the model.