bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Erwartete externe Effekte und Wahlverhalten: Das Beispiel der Münchner Allianz-Arena / Expected External Effects and Voting: The Case of the Munich Allianz-Arena
Authors: Ahlfeldt Gabriel M. , Maennig Wolfgang , Scholz Hanno 
Published: April 2016

Summary
We investigate at the precinct-level the 2001 stadium referendum for the Allianz-Arena in Munich, where voters had to decide upon a projected site as well as on public subsidies for provision of transport infrastructure. This is the first analysis of a stadium referendum with respect to the spatial dimension outside the U.S. The new arena, which is the home venue of the professional soccer clubs FC Bayern München and TSV 1860 München and also was a major venue during the FIFA World Cup 2006 clearly won the approval of a majority of voters in one of the referendums with the largest participation in the history of Munich. However, in proximity of the projected site, residents strongly opposed the project, which reflects in significantly reduced shares of yes-votes. Assuming rationality, we conclude that at city level residents expected an increase in utility from the new arena that justified public expenses. However, our results also point to considerable proximity cost, probably related to the presence of fan crowds and congestion. This finding contradicts the existing evidence on stadium impact from the U.S. There are also major differences in the socio-economic determinants of voting behavior, indicating that the expected net-benefit of proximity to professional sports facilities may vary across sports and countries.
What Drives Housing Prices Down? Evidence from an International Panel
Authors: Kholodilin Konstantin A. , Menz Jan-Oliver , Siliverstovs Boriss 
Published: April 2016

Summary
In this study, we suggest an explanation for the low growth rates of real housing prices in Canada and Germany in comparison to other OECD countries over the period 1975-2005. We show that the long-run development of housing markets is determined by real disposable per-capita income, the real long-term interest rate, population growth, and urbanization. The differential development of real housing prices in Canada and Germany is attributed to the fundamentals in these two countries. Canada and Germany are characterized by relatively low average growth rates of real disposable income and relatively high interest rates, resulting in depressed housing prices over a long period of time. Institutional structure accentuates these tendencies. Given the importance of housing wealth for private consumption, our paper aims at drawing the attention of policymakers to the necessity of preventing not only overheating but also overcooling of the housing market that entails lower economic growth rate.
Erhöhung der Mehrwertsteuer für Lebensmittel: Budget- und Wohlfahrtseffekte für Konsumenten / Increase of the Value Added Tax (VAT): Budget- and Welfare- Effects for Consumers
Authors: Thiele Silke 
Published: April 2016

Summary
On January 1st 2007 the Federal Republic of Germany increased the value added tax (VAT) from16% up to 19%. The reduced VAT for food of 7% has been is kept but it is often debated. The issue in debate is whether distributional effects between different groups of households occur if the VAT of food is increased up to 19%. The objective of this analysis is to quantify the welfare effects of an increase of the VAT for different German household groups. Furthermore budget effects are calculated, which look upon household expenditures before and after the VAT increase. The methodical basis of this analysis is the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) estimated with cross sectional data of 11,831 German households. Two aspects have to be taken into account with the use of cross-sectional data: insufficient price information and zero expenditures. To derive quality adjusted prices an approach of Cox/Wohlgenannt (1986) is applied. To take censoring of the dependent variables into account a procedure of Shonkwiler/Yen (1999) was employed. The results show that low income households and households with children will have comparatively high welfare losses.
Die Auswirkungen der Geldmenge und des Kreditvolumens auf die Immobilienpreise – Ein ARDL-Ansatz für Deutschland / Money, Credit and House Prices – An ARDL-Approach for Germany
Authors: Belke Ansgar 
Published: April 2016

SummaryThe current financial crisis is often said to be caused by excessive liquidity and distorted incentives in the US subprime real estate sector. Taking this as a starting point, this paper analyzes the relation between house prices and credit respectively money growth between 1992 and 2006 (West German price data) and from 1997 to 2006 (East German price data). We focus on the German economy which - due to the creation of excess capacities in the wake of reunification - did not experience a house price bubble in contrast to other euro area economies such as Ireland and Spain. Applying an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach we test for cointegration among the relevant variables. After estimating the long-run coefficients, we derive the optimal specification of the corresponding error-correction models and estimate them. Our results suggest that both monetary and credit policy are responsible for house price development especially in Western Germany. We also check exhaustively for well-behaved estimated residuals and conduct some tests for structural breaks and robustness checks. For instance, we show that tax policies - specific depreciation possibilities in the new federal states - also have a significant impact on house prices but without dominating the impact of credit and money growth. Our results are also robust to the application of a more traditional cointegration testing procedure in the spirit of Johansen and Juselius.
Bank Lending and Monetary Policy Transmission in Austria
Authors: Burgstaller Johann 
Published: April 2016

Summary
This paper examines the role of banks in the propagation process of monetary policy actions. Testable hypotheses are deduced from the theory of the lending channel, which argues that after a policy-induced drain of funds from the banking sector, some (types of) institutions are unable or unwilling to retain their prior levels of lending. To identify the decisive bank attributes, disaggregated data for the full population of Austrian banks is used for the 1998-2005 period. The average Austrian bank is found to significantly reduce its growth rate of loans after an increase in policy-driven interest rates. Heterogeneous lending reactions appear to be more pronounced for the institutions that are organized in multi-tier sectors. At large, the results are not compatible with the widespread notion that the Austrian banking sector absorbs monetary shocks. The lending channel also seems of aggregate importance as impulses in loan supply are found to significantly affect the growth rate of real GDP.
The Development of Employers’ Training Investments Over Time – A Decomposition Analysis Using German Establishment Data
Authors: Görlitz Katja 
Published: April 2016

SummaryUsing establishment data covering the time period 1997 to 2007, this paper investigates trends of employer-sponsored further training in Germany, with a focus on the share of establishments investing in training. In West and East Germany alike, I find a positive time trend in the share of training active establishments. Applying Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition techniques shows that changes in some establishment characteristics affect the trend, however, not only in a positive way.While the increase of the fraction of skilled workers, changes in industry composition and the risen share of innovative establishments contribute positively to the trend, the decreased fraction of establishments engaged in collective bargaining operates in the opposite direction. In spite of these findings, the overall characteristics effect is rather small.
Matchingprozesse auf beruflichen Teilarbeitsmärkten / Job Matching on Occupational Labour Markets
Authors: Stops Michael , Mazzoni Thomas 
Published: April 2016

Summary
Our paper presents new estimates of matching functions on partial labor markets. We used extensive data, ranging from 1982 to 2003, which results in new insights, extending the knowledge obtained by former empirical studies. We also used the extended time series data to validate model assumptions, like stationarity, statistically. It is shown that some of these assumptions do not hold if recent data is included. We discuss potential consequences and modifications, resulting from these findings. Subsequently, we use a sophisticated pooled mean group panel model to provide more detailed insights into matching processes in the concerning partial labor markets. This approach allows for a more general perspective and furthermore, parameters can be estimated asymptotically efficient via maximum likelihood. The results obtained suggest movements to stable matching processes, positive elasticities of overall matching and decreasing returns to scale. The economical implications of these findings are discussed and compared with the results of other recent studies.
Are Personal Budgets a Financially Sound Reform Option for the German Long-Term Care Insurance?
Authors: Arntz Melanie , Thomsen Stephan L. 
Published: April 2016

Summary
In a long-run social experiment, personal budgets have been tested as an alternative home care program of the German long-term care insurance (LTCI). By granting the monetary value of in kind services in cash, personal budgets are considered to enable customized home care arrangements, thereby avoiding costly nursing home care and thus saving LTCI spending. However, personal budgets also compete with the already existing and less generous cash option of the LTCI. Any transition from the receipt of cash benefits to personal budgets thus challenges the view of personal budgets as a cost savings device, unless personal budgets sufficiently reduce the use of costly nursing home care to balance these extra costs.
This paper therefore contrasts the short-term costs of implementing personal budgets with potential cost savings if personal budgets enhance the stability of home care and avoid costly nursing home care. For this purpose, the paper investigates the effects of personal budgets on the duration of home care until moving to a nursing home as well as the perceived stability of home care. Despite a positive effect of personal budgets on the stability of home care, LTCI spending is likely to increase in the short to medium run. In the long run, however, the expected transition to decreasing numbers of cash recipients favors the introduction of personal budgets.
Auswirkungen von Mehrfachmandaten deutscher Vorstands- und Aufsichtsratsvorsitzender auf den Unternehmenserfolg / The Impact of Multiple Board Memberships of CEOs and Chairmen of Supervisory Boards on Corporate Performance in Germany
Authors: Balsmeier Benjamin , Buchwald Achim , Peters Heiko 
Published: April 2016

Summary
Members of management boards as well as supervisory boards often attract public criticism when they are simultaneously active in several other boards. We use a panel data set of the biggest German corporations for the period from 1996-2006 to estimate the impact of multiple board memberships of the CEO and the chairman of the supervisory board on corporate performance. The results suggest a positive and inverse U-shaped relation between the number of external supervisory board seats of the CEO and corporate performance. Chairmen of supervisory boards who simultaneously serve on external management boards tend to improve the performance of the controlled firm. Further external supervisory board seats of the chairman of a supervisory board do not seem to have any influence on corporate performance, though.
Analyse der Übertragung US-amerikanischer Schocks auf Deutschland auf Basis eines FAVAR / A FAVAR-based Analysis of the Transmission of US Shocks to Germany
Authors: Eickmeier Sandra 
Published: April 2016

Summary
The paper assesses the transmission of US supply, demand and monetary policy shocks between 1976 and 2008 based on a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model (FAVAR) which is applied to a newly constructed set of more than 200 German time series. The study not only assesses the transmission of US shocks to German GDP via impulse response analysis but also to a large number of variables capturing the various transmission channels. The inclusion not only of aggregate trade variables but also of variables covering trade with different partner countries/regions helps analyzing more deeply the trade channel, e. g. the role of direct trade versus trade with third countries. Another focus lies on the transmission of US shocks to specific industries such as the car and the machinery industries which were particularly severely affected by the global financial crisis. Finally, the role of US shocks for the most recent downturn in Germany is assessed based on a historical decomposition.
Logik des Marktes Marktordnung, Marktverhalten und Marktergebnisse / Logic of Markets Market Rules, Behaviour of Actors, and Market Outcome
Authors: Gudehus Timm 
Published: April 2016

Summary
This contribution shows how the outcome of dynamic markets can be derived, without the unrealistic assumptions of a perfect market, from the current rules of a market and the possible behaviour of the actors. An analysis of the observable rules for real-life markets results in transfer equations and algorithms for the calculation of the individual purchasing prices and sales quantities.With distribution functions for offer and demand, which reflect the behaviour of the actors, the collective market outcome can be calculated, such as market price and sales, their variance and time dependency as well as the distribution effects of markets. The market laws, which result by simulation and probability theory, deviate in many respects from the statements of common price- and market-theories. The new approach enables to solve current problems, such as the market design for material and immaterial goods and finance products.
Notes on Unit Value Index Bias
Authors: Diewert W.Erwin , Lippe Peter von der 
Published: April 2016

Summary
It is often the case that the value of a number of somewhat similar units (e. g., automobiles of a certain general type) is divided by the number of units in order to form a unit value price and these unit value prices are compared over two periods in order to form a unit value price index. This unit value price index or Drobisch price index can then be compared with other standard index number formulae and the bias in the index can be determined. The present paper presents most of the known results on this bias (and derives some new ones) in a coherent framework using a simple identity from the statistics literature. A related question first considered by Párniczky (1974) is also considered: does disaggregation of a unit value into more homogeneous subgroups reduce the unit value bias? The answer seems to be: probably yes.
Aggregate Indices and Their Corresponding Elementary Indices
Authors: Mehrhoff Jens 
Published: April 2016

Summary
“Which index formula at the elementary level, where no expenditure share weights are available, corresponds to a desired aggregate index?” To answer this question, this paper develops a statistical approach. It proposes a theoretical framework which makes it possible to achieve numerical equivalence of an elementary index with the Laspeyres, Paasche or Fisher price index. Depending on the price elasticity, different elementary indices should be applied to different groups of goods in order to approach the desired aggregate index as closely as possible. Furthermore, the new statistical approach assures internal consistency between price and volume measurement.
Lowe and Cobb-Douglas Consumer Price Indices and their Substitution Bias
Authors: Balk Bert M. 
Published: April 2016

Summary
Catching the effect of substitution behaviour in a Consumer Price Index (CPI) as good as possible is a goal pursued by statistical agencies throughout the world. The difference between a CPI and a certain target cost-of-living index is called substitution bias. Balk and Diewert (2003) considered the substitution bias of a Lowe Consumer Price Index; see also CPI Manual (2004: Chapter 17). The present paper considers the substitution bias of a Cobb-Douglas (or Geometric Young) CPI, and compares the two price indices with respect to their substitution bias. It appears difficult to draw a clear-cut conclusion.
Reconsideration of Weighting and Updating Procedures in the US CPI
Authors: Greenlees John S. , Williams Elliot 
Published: April 2016

Summary
In 2002, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) introduced a supplemental C-CPI-U employing a superlative formula to provide a closer approximation to a cost-of-living index (COLI). This paper focuses on whether the BLS can improve upon the headline CPI-U’s current biennial weight update process, thereby reducing the CPI-U’s growth rate and bringing the index closer to the C-CPI-U.
We begin by estimating superlative price indexes for 1999 through 2007 along with indexes based on the constant-elasticity-of-substitution demand model. Our analyses confirm that the consumer expenditure data underlying the CPI imply substantial consumer substitution, implying that the CPI-U’s Lowe index formula yields higher inflation estimates than would a true COLI.
Simulating feasible weight update processes, we find that a Lowe index with two-year weight reference periods but annual updating rises by about 0.03 percentage points less per year than the CPI-U. Another 0.01 percentage point on average is subtracted by imposing annual revision with one-year base periods. Thus, indexes with more timely weights may offer improved representation of current price change, as well as closer approximations to a COLI.
User Costs versus Waiting Services and Depreciation in a Model of Production
Authors: Diewert W.Erwin 
Published: April 2016

Summary
The paper develops an extension of a one period model of production involving beginning and end of the period capital stocks along with output and input flows that is due to Hicks and Edwards and Bell. This generalized Austrian model of production takes into account that end of the period capital stocks result from: (i) purchases of new investment goods; (ii) internal construction of firm capital stock components and (iii) holdings of (depreciated) capital goods that were held by the firm at the beginning of the period. These different methods of creating end of period holdings of capital stocks generally have different resource requirements and hence the one period production possibilities set is more complex than the usual one. This general model of production is used to justify the decomposition of the Jorgensonian user cost of capital into separate waiting services and depreciation components.
Hedonic Price Indexes: A Comparison of Imputation, Time Dummy and ’Re-Pricing’ Methods
Authors: Haan Jan de 
Published: April 2016

Summary
The main approaches to measuring hedonic indexes in the academic literature are the imputation approach and the time dummy approach. This paper compares both approaches, discusses an alternative method called hedonic re-pricing, and comments on a recent contribution by Diewert et al. (2009). The aim is to explain the differences between the various hedonic approaches as well as their similarities, and to point to the implications for statistical agencies. Hedonic price indexes can be weighted or unweighted and the paper addresses the issue of choice of regression weights. For unweighted indexes it is shown that the ’full’ hedonic imputation approach and the time dummy approach implicitly leave the matched part of the indexes unaffected, just like ’single’ and ’double’ hedonic imputation do explicitly.
Combining Survey Forecasts and Time Series Models: The Case of the Euribor
Authors: Krüger Fabian , Pohlmeier Winfried , Mokinski Frieder 
Published: April 2016

Summary
This paper reinterprets Maganelli’s (2009) idea of “Forecasting with Judgment” to obtain a dynamic algorithm for combining survey expectations data and time series models for macroeconomic forecasting. Existing combination approaches typically obtain combined forecasts by linearly weighting individual forecasts. The approach presented here instead uses survey forecasts in the estimation stage of a time series model. Thus an estimate of the model parameters is obtained that reflects two sources of information: a history of realizations of the variables that are involved in the time series model and survey expectations on the future course of the variable that is to be forecast. The idea at the estimation stage is to shrink parameter estimates towards values that are compatible (in an appropriate sense) with the survey forecasts that have been observed. It is exemplified how this approach can be applied to different autoregressive time series models. In an empirical application, the approach is used to forecast the three-month Euribor at a six-month horizon.
Practice and Prospects of Medium-term Economic Forecasting
Authors: Hofer Helmut , Weyerstraß Klaus , Schmidt Torsten 
Published: April 2016

Summary
Government agencies and other national and international institutions are asked to perform forecasts over the medium term. In particular, the EU Stability and Growth Pact contains the obligation to formulate stability programmes over four years, covering a general economic outlook as well as the projected development of public finances. However, the current practice of performing medium-term economic projections is unsatisfactory from a methodological point of view as the applied methodology has been developed for short-run forecasting and it is questionable whether these methods are useful for the medium term. In particular, currently medium-term projections are mostly based on the neoclassical Solow growth model with an aggregate production function with labour, capital and exogenous technological progress. It might be argued, however, that for medium-run projections endogenous growth models might be better suited. In this paper we give an overview of currently used methods for medium-term macroeconomic projections. Then we analyse the performance of medium-term forecasts for Austria to illustrate the strengths and weaknesses of the typical approach. In particular, the five-year projections of real GDP growth, inflation and the unemployment rate are investigated. Finally, we describe some approaches to improve medium-run projections.
Poverty in Germany – Statistical Inference and Decomposition
Authors: Bönke Timm , Schröder Carsten 
Published: April 2016

SummaryBased on six harmonized cross-sections of the German Sample Survey of Income and Expenditure, we study inter-temporal changes in poverty from year 1978 to 2003. Results are decomposed by region and household types, and the bootstrap method is applied to test for the statistical significance of all our findings. Across household types, single parents with children have the highest poverty risk.Most striking is a huge regional divide in poverty which only narrows slightly over the period under investigation: the incidence and the intensity of poverty are substantially higher in the New states. A nonlinear Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition is conducted to quantify the separate contribution of regional differences in households’ characteristics to the likelhood of being poor. Estimates from the decomposition indicate that differences in the distributions of socioeconomic characteristics play a negligible role for the 1993 poverty divide. Already in year 2003, however, differences in the distributions of characteristics explain more than fifty percent of the poverty divide, indicating that the poverty divide is likely to become a persistent phenomenon.