TENDENSI PROSES KONVERGENSI DAN PENENTU PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI WILAYAH PULAU UTAMA DI INDONESIA, 1985-2010
Authors: Tajerin Tajerin , Fauzi Akhmad , Juanda Bambang , Adrianto Luky 
Published: June 2017

Ketimpangan ekonomi antar wilayah pulau utama di Indonesia merupakan sesuatu yang secara alamiah akan terjadi. Hal ini karena, sebagai negara epulauan, Indonesia memiliki enam wilayah pulau utama dengan karakteristik yang berbeda, yang tentunya akan menyebabkan pola pembangunan dan tingkat kemampuan tumbuh yang berbeda pula. Penelitian ini bertujuan: (1) Menganalisis tendensi proses konvergensi ekonomi antar wilayah pulau utama, dan; (2) Menduga faktor penentu pertumbuhan ekonomi wilayah pulau utama dan konrtibusinya terhadap tendensi konvergensi. Penelitian dilakukan menggunakan unit analisis wilayah pulau utama dan data sekunder periode 1985-2010 yang dianalisis dengan pendekatan ekonometrika model data panel. Hasil penelitian mununjukkan bahwa tendensi proses konvergensi ekonomi wilayah pulau utama di Indonesia selama periode analisis telah terjadi namun berlangsung lambat dengan kecepatan konvergensi ekonomi sebesar 3,22-8,50% per tahun (secara kondisional). Berdasarkan model fixed-effect, peubah modal fisik dan modal manusia berpengaruh positif terhadap tingkat pertumbuhan PDRB per kapita kondisi mapan. Sementara peubah resultan dari pertumbuhan penduduk dan penyusutan modal berpengaruh negatif terhadap tingkat pertumbuhan PDRB per kapita kondisi mapan. Dengan mengontrol peubah-peubah penentu pertumbuhan ekonomi, mampu mendorong kecepatan tendensi proses konvergensi meningkat sebesar 1,56-4,75% per tahun dengan half-life time 10,34-31,76 tahun. Hal ini berarti bahwa untuk mempercepat konvergensi ekonomi antar wilayah utama Indonesia dibutuhkan peningkatan modal fisik dan modal manusia yang terdistribusi secara lebih merata, dan diikuti pengendalian pertumbuhan penduduk dan penyusutan modal. Mengingat bahwa wilayah pulau utama di Indonesia memiliki sumberdaya kelautan yang besar, maka kebijakan untuk mempercepat konvergensi tersebut perlu diimplementasikan dengan mempertimbangkan peran kelautan yang disinergikan dengan upaya meningkatkan interrelasi (konektivitas) sektoral dan spasial antar wilayah di Indonesia. Title: Tendency of Convergence Process and Determinant of Economic Growth of Main Island Regions in Indonesia, 1985-2010The economic disparity among the main island regions in Indonesia is a natural occurrence. Due to the fact that, as an archipelago, Indonesia is consisted of six main island regions, each with its own indigenous characteristic, thus generating different development patterns and different developing abilities. Therefore, a research has been done to: (1) Analyze the tendency of economic convergenceprocess among the main island regions; and (2) Estimate the determinant factors of economic growth within the main island regions, as well as their contributions toward the convergence tendency. The research was conducted with the main island regions as the analysis unit, and secondary data covering a 25 years period, spanning from 1985 to 2010. The data acquired were analyzed using a data panel econometric model. The analysis resulted in a finding that there has been a convergence tendency among the main island regions in Indonesia during the period analyzed. The economic convergence rate found was considered low with an estimated rateper annum of 3,22%-8,5% (Conditionally). Based on the fixed effect model, both physical and human capitals were the variables which positively affecting the growth of the steady state per capita Regional Gross Domestic Product. While population growth and capital depreciation were the variables which negatively affecting the growth of the steady state per capita Regional Gross Domestic Product. The simulation done using the model developed showed that by controling the previously mentioned economic growth determinant factors, it was possible to induce faster convergence process tendency per annum rate to 1,56%-4,75%, with reduced half-life time to 10,24-31,76 years. Therefore, a faster regional economic convergence would require more physical and human capital to be distributed evenly among the main island regions, while constraining population growth and capital depreciation. Considering that each main island region owns a relatively abundant marine resource, therefore the convergence rate inducing policy should be implemented by pushing the role of marine sectors, while strengthening the sectoral and spatial connectivity among regions in Indonesia.