bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Die Wirkung des Betriebsverfassungsgesetzes am Beispiel der Freistellung von Betriebsräten – ein Beitrag zur Rechtstatsachenforschung / The Effect of the Works Council Act on Paid Leave of Absence of Works Councillors
Authors: Backes-Gellner Uschi , Mohrenweiser Jens 
Published: April 2016

SummaryIn establishments with a works council and 200 and more employees, the Works Council Act requires the paid leave of absence of one works councillor, subjected to collective bargaining and works agreements. This paper analyses the de-facto distribution of this legal provision and shows that the paid leave of absence do not sharply increases at the legal threshold of 200 employees. Instead of a step function, we observe a continuous increase of the probability of paid leave of absence with the number of employees. In particular, a lot of establishments have a works councillor in paid leave of absence before the legal threshold and a lot of establishments have no-one far behind the threshold. Contrary, the probability of paid leave of absence for one works councillor sharply increases at the legal threshold for establishments with bad relations between management and works council.
Regressive Oil Price Expectations Toward More Fundamental Values of the Oil Price
Authors: Reitz Stefan , Rülke Jan-Christoph , Stadtmann Georg 
Published: April 2016

SummaryWe use oil price forecasts from the Consensus Economic Forecast poll for the time period Oct. 1989 - Dec. 2008 to analyze how forecasters form their expectations. Our findings indicate that the extrapolative as well as the regressive expectation formation hypothesis play a role. Standard measures of forecast accuracy reveal forecasters’ under performance relative to the random walk benchmark. We test the hypothesis of rational expectations by relying on the criteria of unbiasedness and orthogonality. Although both conditions are met, the forecast accuracy is significantly lower compared to naïve random walk forecast. The forecasters have problems to forecast the trends in the oil price. The recent roller-coaster movements in the international oil market have revealed forecasters’ inability to predict major trends in the spot oil price. As a consequence, some research institutes have stopped forecasting the oil price as an ingredient of their macroeconomic models and use a random walk forecast instead.
Beeinflussen bessere Qualitätsinformationen die Krankenhauswahl in Deutschland? / Does Better Quality Information Affect Hospital Choice in Germany?
Authors: Wübker Ansgar , Sauerland Dirk , Wübker Achim 
Published: April 2016

Summary
This paper examines, whether well prepared report cards affect hospital choice within Germany. We report three main findings. First: hospitals, which publish their quality data voluntarily, extend their market shares after relative to before publishing the quality data - compared to such hospitals that do not publish their quality data. Second: in the group of the publishing hospitals, hospitals with a higher than average quality increased their market shares after relative to before the adoption of the report card - compared to hospitals with a lower than average quality. Third: hospitals with quality below average are basically chosen by patients living nearby and not by those with a higher travelling distance. Based on these finding decision makers in hospitals have strong incentives (i) to make quality information publicly available and (ii) to keep their quality scores high.
Impact of Non-smoking Ordinances on Hospitality Revenues: The Case of Germany
Authors: Ahlfeldt Gabriel M. , Maennig Wolfgang 
Published: April 2016

Summary
Non-smoking ordinances are among the most popular albeit controversial public health-care legislations worldwide. This article provides an empirical assessment of the impact of nonsmoking ordinances on bar and restaurant revenues in German Federal States. By application of a standard panel regression approach and a quasi-experimental research design, we find no compelling evidence for a significant impact of the introduction as well as the weakening of the legislation on revenues of bars and restaurants. Consumption pattern has either not changed at all or any reduction in spending by smokers is compensated for by a corresponding increase by non-smokers. These findings support the German - and similar - non-smoking legislations in the sense that positive externalities resulting from reduced health care cost are likely to outweigh the risk to businesses in the hospitality sector.
Who Gets the Money?
Authors: Aschhoff Birgit 
Published: April 2016

Summary
In this paper I analyze which firms receive R&D project grants and how this public support evolves over time by considering in particular firm’s previous participation. The extent of the dynamics of firms’ participation within the funding scheme gives information about the openness of the scheme towards non-participating firms. Using firm-level data on German manufacturing and knowledge-intensive service firms, it turns out that participation in the funding scheme shows a rather high level of continuity. This is also confirmed by applying a multivariate approach. Firms which received funding in the past are more likely to be selected for public funding again. Moreover, a firm’s size and knowledge capabilities increase the probability of entering the scheme.
Z-Tests in Multinomial Probit Models under Simulated Maximum Likelihood Estimation: Some Small Sample Properties
Authors: Ziegler Andreas 
Published: April 2016

Summary
This paper analyzes small sample properties of several versions of z-tests in multinomial probit models under simulated maximum likelihood estimation. Our Monte Carlo experiments show that z-tests on utility function coefficients provide more robust results than z-tests on variance covariance parameters. As expected, both the number of observations and the number of random draws in the incorporated Geweke-Hajivassiliou-Keane (GHK) simulator have on average a positive impact on the conformities between the shares of type I errors and the nominal significance levels. Furthermore, an increase of the number of observations leads to an expected decrease of the shares of type II errors, whereas the number of random draws in the GHK simulator surprisingly has no significant effect in this respect. One main result of our study is that the use of the robust version of the simulated z-test statistics is not systematically more favorable than the use of other versions. However, the application of the z-test statistics that exclusively include the Hessian matrix of the simulated loglikelihood function to estimate the information matrix often leads to substantial computational problems.
Drobisch’s Legacy to Price Statistics
Authors: Auer Ludwig von 
Published: April 2016

Summary
This paper attempts to establish a greater awareness among researchers for the noteworthy contributions to price index theory made by Moritz Wilhelm Drobisch (1802-1896), a German mathematician and philosopher at the Universita¨ t Leipzig. Few economists and statisticians are aware of the fact that neither Étienne Laspeyres nor Hermann Paasche originally devised the well-known price indices that presently carry their names. Moritz Wilhelm Drobisch was the first to publish them in 1871 in a treatise and, shortly thereafter, in an abridged version that appeared in this very journal. He rejected them, however, because in his view they were inappropriate measures of inflation. Instead, he devised the unit value index, which he regarded as superior to all other price index formulas. This paper contains a description of his pioneering scientific achievements together with a synopsis of his personal and professional life. Its purpose is to give credit where credit is due, but more importantly, it attempts to recognize these seminal contributions in light of the factors that have tarnished them in the recorded annals of price index history. It attempts to put them into their proper perspective.
Information or Institution?
Authors: Döhrn Roland , Schmidt Christoph M. 
Published: April 2016

Summary
The accuracy of macroeconomic forecast depends on various factors, most importantly the mix of analytical methods used by the individual forecasters, the way that their personal experience is shaping their identification strategies, but also their efficiency in translating new information into revised forecasts. In this paper we use a broad sample of forecasts of German GDP and its components to analyze the impact of institutions and information on forecast accuracy. We find that forecast errors are a linear function of the forecast horizon, which serves as an indicator of the information available at the time a forecast is produced. This result is robust over a variety of different specifications. As better information seems to be the key to achieving better forecasts, approaches for acquiring reliable information early seem to be a good investment. By contrast, the institutional factors tend to be small and statistically insignificant. It has to remain open, whether this is the consequence of the efficiency-enhancing competition among German research institutions or rather the reflection of an abundance of forecast suppliers.
A Factor Model for Euro-area Short-term Inflation Analysis
Authors: Lenza Michele , Warmedinger Thomas 
Published: April 2016

Summary
This paper develops a factor model for forecasting inflation in the euro area. The model can handle variables with different timeliness, sample size and frequency. We show that the forecasts based on the factor model outperform naïve random walk forecasts, a hard to beat benchmark for euro area inflation forecasts in recent years, at horizons of and beyond nine months ahead. They are also comparable, in terms of accuracy, to the judgemental forecasts prepared in the context of the Eurosystem macroeconomic projection exercises. The factor model is therefore a very suitable tool to extract the signal on current and future euro area inflation from new data releases.
Forecasting Nonlinear Aggregates and Aggregates with Time-varying Weights
Authors: Lütkepohl Helmut 
Published: April 2016

Summary
Despite the fact that many aggregates are nonlinear functions and the aggregation weights of many macroeconomic aggregates are time-varying, much of the literature on forecasting aggregates considers the case of linear aggregates with fixed, time-invariant aggregation weights. In this study a framework for nonlinear contemporaneous aggregation with possibly stochastic or time-varying weights is developed and different predictors for an aggregate are compared theoretically as well as with simulations. Two examples based on European unemployment and inflation series are used to illustrate the virtue of the theoretical setup and the forecasting results.
Global Warming Induced Water-Cycle Changes and Industrial Production – A Scenario Analysis for the Upper Danube River Basin
Authors: Jeßberger Christoph , Sindram Maximilian , Zimmer Markus 
Published: April 2016

Summary
Using the environmental decision support system DANUBIA, we analyze the effects of climate change on industry and compare the effectiveness of different adaptation strategies. The observed area covers Germany and Austria up to 2025. Since the main effects of climate change in this region are expected to be caused by changes in the water-cycle, we place a special focus on the exemplary region of the upper Danube catchment area. Industry is the main regional user of water resources.Water is an essential production factor and is used in almost every production process of a manufactured good. We apply estimates of regional production functions, based on AFiD-panel micro-data for Germany, to calibrate regional industrial production and water usage within DANUBIA. Thus, we are able to simulate region-specific effects of climate change and the impact of social scenarios using an innovative model of the reciprocal influences of a huge network of interdisciplinary research areas. Simulation results show wide regional differences in production site reactions as well as between differing scenarios. Comparing scenarios of moderate and serious climate change, we are able to illustrate the severe environmental effects in some regions and to determine considerable economic effects on regional economic growth.
Extending the Case for a Beneficial Brain Drain
Authors: Bertoli Simone , Brücker Herbert 
Published: April 2016

Summary
Several destination countries still adopt general immigration policies, and are characterized by lower returns to education than the countries of origin of the migrants. These two stylized facts challenge the literature on the beneficial brain drain which demonstrates that migration can increase the average human capital in the sending countries if immigration policies are selective, or the skill premium at destination is higher than at origin. We propose a model with empirically sensible assumptions on immigration policies and skill premia, where individuals face heterogeneous and correlated education and migration costs. The model is consistent with a robust stylized fact, namely that the rate of migration increases with schooling, and it shows that the average level of education of the stayers can be increasing in the probability to migrate even in such a setting. Our simulation results prove that these findings hold for reasonable parameter values. This extends the case for a beneficial brain drain in a further direction.
Purchasing-power-dependent Preferences as a New Explanation of Giffen Behaviour: A Note
Authors: Heuson Clemens 
Published: April 2016

Summary
This paper develops an example beyond traditional microeconomic theory that provides a new explanation of Giffen behaviour. Maslow’s hierarchy of needs suggests that an individual’s preferences are not fixed but, rather, depend on purchasing power. A decrease in purchasing power with respect to low-hierarchy goods (e.g., bread) is likely to augment an individual’s preferences for such goods and to weaken preferences for high-hierarchy goods (e.g., books). By introducing a simple purchasing-power-dependent utility function that satisfies the standard assumptions, it is shown that the preference-shifting effect can provoke Giffen behaviour.
Changes in Import Pricing Behaviour: Evidence for Germany
Authors: Stahn Kerstin 
Published: April 2016

Summary
Since changes in import prices feed into consumer prices and thus might affect monetary policy decisions, policymakers need to establish whether or not German importers’ long-run pricing behaviour has changed. Of particular interest are any shifts in the importance of cost pass-through and pricing-to-market for import pricing in Germany that may have ocurred since the 1990s. We analyse pricing in single equations for 11 product categories because the factors influencing the pricing behaviour, eg competitive pressure,may well have developed differently on the individual product markets. The Saikkonen (1991) approach is applied to test the import price levels for changes in the impact of their determinants. After aggregating the findings for the individual product categories, we find that, on the whole, pricing-to-market has increased, whereas cost pass-through via foreign costs and exchange rates is lower, but not via commodity prices.
Robust Estimation of Linear Fixed Effects Panel Data Models with an Application to the Exporter Productivity Premium
Authors: Verardi Vincenzo , Wagner Joachim 
Published: April 2016

Summary
In empirical studies often the values of some variables for some observations are much larger or smaller than the values for the other observations in the sample. These extreme observations, or outliers, often have a large impact on the results of statistical analyses. Conclusions based on a sample with and without these units may differ drastically. While applied researchers are usually aware of this the detection of outliers and their appropriate treatment is often dealt with in a rather sloppy manner. One reason for this habit seems to be the lack of availability of appropriate canned programs for robust methods that can be used in the presence of outliers. Our paper intents to improve on this situation by presenting a highly robust method for estimation of the popular linear fixed effects panel data model and to supply Stata code for it. In an application from the field of the micro-econometrics of international firm activities we demonstrate that outliers can indeed drive results.
Diskussionsbeitrag / Discussion Paper. Finanzverwaltung von innen: Neue Ansätze ihrer empirisch-ökonomischen Erforschung
Authors: Schöbel Enrico 
Published: April 2016

Summary
Unlike economic theories of tax law enforcement, real income tax law application requires thorough interpretation of the law and the actual facts with regard to tax purposes. The automatic assessment produced by a computer program in German tax offices suggests the existence of a mechanically operated taxation akin to a weaving mill. However, empirical studies of tax administrations in the USA, the Netherlands, and Switzerland, as well as examinations carried out by the German Courts of Audit shed light on a subjective information revealing and decision making process. Unfortunately, the German tax administration does not provide individual tax assessment and tax compliance data which could be empirically analysed in comparison with the findings from abroad. Empirical economic studies are required to answer the question of how the German income tax law is applied. Thus, an expert questionnaire was developed and successfully pre-tested in tax offices with the aim of encouraging a nationwide study. A research proposal suggested interviewing tax advisers on their professional experience with tax offices. The German Federal Ministry of Finance initiated an online survey addressed to the tax advisers. The study and its results are critically reviewed with regard to methodology, previous insights, and the earlier proposal.
The Production of Historical “Facts”: How the Wrong Number of Participants in the Leipzig Monday Demonstration on October 9, 1989 Became a Convention
Authors: Opp Karl-Dieter 
Published: April 2016

Summary
This paper deals with the demonstration in Leipzig on October 9, 1989, an important episode in the history of the East German Revolution. It is generally held that 70,000 demonstrators participated. This paper shows that this number is clearly wrong. The paper describes briefly the results of a survey that were inconsistent with this number and how the authors of the study proceeded to make a new estimate. The paper further outlines how the original estimate was made and found its way into the media and historical accounts. Finally, some general lessons are drawn from the case. The case study this paper focuses on is not an example of the faking of data, but rather of negligent data handling. However, it is argued that the lessons from this case discussed in the final section hold for faked data as well.
“True Believers” or Numerical Terrorism at the Nuclear Power Plant
Authors: Krämer Walter , Arminger Gerhard 
Published: April 2016

Summary
For decades, there has been a heated debate about whether or not nuclear power plants contribute to childhood cancer in their respective neighbourhoods, with statisticians testifying on both sides. The present paper points to some flaws in the pro-arguments, taking a recent study prepared for the political party “Bündnis 90 /Grüne” as a specimen. Typical mistakes include an understatement of the size of tests of significance, disregard of important covariates and extreme reliance on very few selected data points.
What Fuels Publication Bias?
Authors: Auspurg Katrin , Hinz Thomas 
Published: April 2016

SummarySignificance tests were originally developed to enable more objective evaluations of research results. Yet the strong orientation towards statistical significance encourages biased results, a phenomenon termed “publication bias”. Publication bias occurs whenever the likelihood or time-lag of publication, or the prominence, language, impact factor of journal space or the citation rate of studies depend on the direction and significance of research findings.Although there is much evidence concerning the existence of publication bias in all scientific disciplines and although its detrimental consequences for the progress of the sciences have been known for a long time, all attempts to eliminate the bias have failed. The present article reviews the history and logic of significance testing, the state of research on publication bias, and existing practical recommendations. After demonstrating that more systematical research on the risk factors of publication bias is needed, the paper suggests two new directions for publication bias research. First, a more comprehensive theoretical model based on theories of rational choice and economics as well as on the sociology of science is sketched out. Publication bias is recognized as the outcome of a social dilemma that cannot be overcome by moral pleas alone. Second, detection methods for publication bias going beyond meta-analysis, ones that are more suitable for testing causal hypotheses, are discussed. In particular, the “caliper test” seems well-suited for conducting theoretically motivated comparisons across heterogeneous research fields like sociology. Its potential is demonstrated by testing hypotheses on (a) the relevance of explicitly vs. implicitly stated research propositions and on (b) the relevance of the number of authors on incidence rates of publication bias in 50 papers published in leading German sociology journals.
The Identification and Prevention of Publication Bias in the Social Sciences and Economics
Authors: Weiß Bernd , Wagner Michael 
Published: April 2016

Summary
Systematic research reviews have become essential in all empirical sciences. However, the validity of research syntheses is threatened by the fact that not all studies on a given topic can be summarized. Research reviews may suffer from missing data, and this is especially crucial in those cases where the selectivity of studies and their findings affects the summarized result. So-called publication bias is a type of missing data and a phenomenon that jeopardizes the validity of systematic or quantitative, as well as narrative, reviews. Publication bias exists if the preparation, submission or publication of research findings depend on characteristics of just these research results, e. g. their direction or statistical significance. This article describes methods to identify publication bias in the context of meta-analysis. It also reviews empirical studies on the prevalence of publication bias, especially in the social and economic sciences, where publication bias also seems to be prevalent. Several proposals to prevent publication bias are discussed.
Benford’s Law as an Instrument for Fraud Detection in Surveys Using the Data of the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP)
Authors: Schräpler Jörg-Peter 
Published: April 2016

Summary
This paper focuses on fraud detection in surveys using Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) data as an example for testing newly methods proposed here. A statistical theorem referred to as Benford’s Law states that in many sets of numerical data, the significant digits are not uniformly distributed, as one might expect, but adhere to a certain logarithmic probability function. In order to detect fraud, we derive several requirements that should, according to this law, be fulfilled in the case of survey data.We show that in several SOEP subsamples, Benford’s Law holds for the available continuous data. For this analysis, we developed a measure that reflects the plausibility of the digit distribution in interviewer clusters. We are thus able to demonstrate that several interviews that were known to have been fabricated and therefore deleted in the original user data set can now be detected using this method. Furthermore, in one subsample, we use this method to identify a case of an interviewer falsifying ten interviews not previously detected by the fieldwork organization.