bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Modeling Agricultural Gross Domestic Product of Kenyan Economy Using Time Series
Authors: M. Ngungu Musyoki , Jacob Ong'ala , Noah Wawire 
Published: July 2019

The agriculture sector is the mainstay of the Kenyan economy. Thus, the sector has a significant role and contribution to GDP. In this study, Box-Jenkins seasonal ARIMA time series modeling approach is used to develop a model that best describes the quarterly agricultural gross domestic product of Kenyan economy. Agricultural gross domestic product data collected quarterly from 2000-2014 at constant 2001 prices is used for modeling. From the analysis, SARIMA(1, 0, 0)(1, 1, 0)4 was found to be the best model describing the quarterly agricultural gross domestic product of Kenyan economy.
Identifying and Predicting Major Factors Affecting the Suicides in Sri Lanka
Authors: Lakmali S. M. M. , Nawarathna L. S. 
Published: July 2019

Aims: Identifying factors related to suicide and the prediction of future suicides are very important because suicide becomes a significant factor that engaged with education, social status, age, gender and many other factors. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to find the civil and education factors effecting on suicidal attempts in Sri Lanka and propose a model to predict the future suicides.
Study Design: Statistical analysis with descriptive analysis and proposing models for predicting future suicides.
Place and Duration of Study: Data collected from the Department of Police, Sri Lanka, between January 2006 and December 2016.
Methodology: Data set has separated into two categories namely ‘civil data’ and ‘educational data’. We modeled the data from 2006 to 2011 and the data from 2014 to 2016 were used for model validation purposes. Quasi Poisson and negative binomial regression models were fitted to identify the major factors affecting suicide in both categories. Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) values were used to select the best model. Further, the Mean Absolute Percentage Deviation (MAPD) and Symmetric Mean Absolute Percent Error (SMAPE) were calculated to find the prediction accuracy of the proposed models.
Results: For both regression models, the variables age, gender and level of education are significant for the models fitted for educational data, and civil status and gender are significant in the civil status dataset. According to the analysis, highest suicides were recorded for the age groups 21-30 and over 61 males, minimally-educated and married people. By considering the MAPD values, the prediction accuracy of both Quasi Poisson models and Negative binomial models were above 99%. But the negative binomial model is the best model because of the comparable high accuracy than the other model. A considerable reduction in suicides was obtained in 2010, due to the peaceful situation in Sri Lanka after the civil war. It is observed that by paying special attention to teenagers, old-aged and married people can reduce the number of suicides.
Analyzing and Forecasting HIV Data Using Hybrid Time Series Models
Authors: Xie Liming 
Published: July 2019

In real work, we often confront complete linear and nonlinear time series data. But some time series are not pure linear and nonlinear, or complicated one, we need apply two or more models to analyze and predict them. It is necessary to explore and find some novel time series hybrid methods to solve it. Human Immunodeficiency and Virus (HIV) is one of intractable and trouble diseases in the world. Thus, the author of this article wants to analyze and probe into some novel time series methods to get breaking breach in the epidemiology that find some rules in the incidence, distribution, pathogen, and control of HIV in a population. In this article, to find the best model, auto.arima function is applied to the original time series data to determine autoregressive integrated moving average, ARIMA(0,0,0); ARIMA and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH), that is, ARIMA-GARCH (1,1) model is used to analyze numbers of people living with HIV for the data of HIV in the world such some important parameters as mu, ar1, ar2, omega, alpha 1, or beta 1 and some specific tests, for example, Jarque-Bera Test, Shapiro-Wilk Test, Ljung-Box Test, etc. Using ARIMA (0, 0, 0) and SARIMA (0,2), seasonal ARIMA, to predict the future values and trends after 2015. Both suggest identical results.
Comparison of Different Parametric Methods in Handling Critical Multicollinearity: Monte Carlo Simulation Study
Authors: Maxwell Obubu , Chukwudike C. Nwokike , Chinedu O. Virtus , Valentine C. Okoye , Paul Obite Chukwudi 
Published: July 2019

In regression analysis, it is relatively necessary to have a correlation between the response and explanatory variables, but having correlations amongst explanatory variables is something undesired. This paper focuses on five methodologies for handling critical multicollinearity, they include: Partial Least Square Regression (PLSR), Ridge Regression (RR), Ordinary Least Square Regression (OLS), Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selector Operator (LASSO) Regression, and the Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Monte Carlo Simulations comparing the methods was carried out with the sample size greater than or equal to the levels considered in most cases, the Average Mean Square Error (AMSE) and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) values were computed. The result shows that PCR is the most superior and more efficient in handling critical multicollinearity problems, having the lowest AMSE and AIC values for all the sample sizes and different levels considered.
Analysis and Modelling of Extreme Rainfall: A Case Study for Dodoma, Tanzania
Authors: Iyamuremye Emmanuel , Wanyonyi Samson W. , Mbete Drinold A. 
Published: July 2019

The analysis of climate change, climate variability and their extremes has become more important as they clearly affect the human society and ecology. The impact of climate change is reflected by the change of frequency, duration and intensity of climate extreme events in the environment and on the economic activities. Climate extreme events, such as extreme rainfall threaten to environment, agricultural production and loss of people’s lives. Dodoma daily rainfall data exported from R-Instat software were used after being provided by Tanzania Meteorological Agency. The data were recorded from 1935 to 2011. In this essay, we used climate indices of rainfall to analyse changes in extreme rainfall. We only used 6 rainfall indices related to extremes to describe the change in rainfall extremes. Extreme rainfall indices did not show statistical evidence of a linear trend in Dodoma rainfall extremes for 77 years. Apart from the extreme rainfall indices, this essay utilized two techniques in extreme value theory namely the block maxima approach and peak over threshold approach. The two extreme value approaches were used for univariate sequences of independent identically distributed (iid) random variables. Using Dodomadaily rainfall data, this essay illustrated the power of the extreme value distributions in modelling of extreme rainfall. Annual maxima of Dodoma daily rainfall from 1935 to 2011 were fitted to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) model. Gumbel was found to be the best fit of the data after likelihood ratio test of GEV and Gumbel models. The Gumbel model parameters were considered to be stationary and non-stationary in two different models. The stationary Gumbel model was found to be good fit of Dodoma maximum rainfall. Later, the levels at which maximum Dodoma rainfall is expected to exceed once, on average, in a given period of time T = 2, 5, 10, 20, 30, 50 and 100 years, were obtained using stationary Gumbel model. Lastly, the data of exceedances were fitted to the Generalized Pareto (GP) model under stationary climate assumption.
Comparative Study on the Degree of Randomness of Few Popular Random Number Tables
Authors: Pandit Pramit , Bakshi Bishvajit 
Published: July 2019

In the field of statistics as well as in the different branches of experimental sciences, random number tables have been playing a vital role for the purpose of selecting random samples. Among the existing different random number tables, four tables namely, Tippet’s random number table, Fisher and Yates random number table, Kendall and Smith's random number table and random number table of RAND Corporation are of most frequent use. The current study aims at attempting to make a comparative review on the degree on randomness of these four most frequently used random number tables based on test, run test and deviation test. From the findings based on test, the highest degree of randomness has been observed in random number table due to RAND Corporation followed by due to Kendall and Smith, Tippet, Fisher and Yates, respectively. In case of run test, the highest degree of randomness has been noticed in random number table due to Fisher and Yates followed by due to Tippet, RAND Corporation, Kendall and Smith, respectively. However, from the findings based on the deviation test, the highest degree of randomness has been observed in random number table due to Kendall and Smith followed by due to Fisher and Yates, RAND Corporation, Tippet, respectively. It can observed that the findings obtained in the studies based on different tests are not alike. Consequently, there is necessity to search for the reasons of the difference between these findings. Moreover, it can also be concluded that attempts should be made by the researchers to construct new random numbers table with enhanced degree of randomness than that of the existing tables.
Measuring the Caesarean Risk Factors in Bangladesh by Using Binary Logistic Regression Model
Authors: Rahaman Sabrina , Hossain Md. Murad , Ankhi Fahima Akter , Roy Madhusudan 
Published: July 2019

Caesarean section (CS) has been on the rise worldwide and Bangladesh is no exception. In Bangladesh, the CS rate, which includes both institutional and community-based deliveries, has increased from about 3% in 2000 to about 24% in 2014. Rather than numerous impediments, cesarean conveyances are most basic among woman’s however it is not clinically advocated. For enhancing the maternal wellbeing status, it is basic to decide the risk components of cesarean conveyance. The primary focal point of this examination is to research and recognize the cesarean risk factors in the entire territory of Bangladesh. For this investigation, we have gathered auxiliary information from the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) 2014. This dataset has one record for every eligible woman as defined by the household schedule. It contains 17864 data which is collected in the woman's questionnaire plus some variables from the household. For the examination, a chi-square test was performed to identify the significant association between conveyance type (cesarean/non-cesarean) and socio-demographic and financial factor's individual. A binary logistic regression was completed to recognize the most effective factors on cesarean conveyance. We found that 5 factors (i.e respondent age, respondent highest education level, husband’s occupation, type of place of residence, wealth index) were measurably connected with conveyance type out of 13 chance elements. From this investigation, it is obvious to us that the above powerful factors may influences the mother's wellbeing status in Bangladesh.
Modeling Heteroscedasticity in the Presence of Serial Correlations in Discrete-time Stochastic Series: A GARCH-in-Mean Approach
Authors: Moffat Imoh Udo , Akpan Emmanuel Alphonsus 
Published: July 2019

Background: In modeling heteroscedasticity of returns, it is often assumed that the series are uncorrelated. In practice, such series with small time periods between observations can be observed to contain significant serial correlations, hence the motivation for this research.
Aim: The aim of this research is to assess the existence of serial correlations in the return series of Zenith Bank Plc, which is targeted at identifying their effects on the parameter estimates of heteroscedastic models.
Materials and Methods: The data were obtained from the Nigerian Stock Exchange spanning from January 3, 2006, to November 24, 2016, having 2690 observations. The hybridized Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARIMA-GARCH-type) models such as Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARIMA-GARCH), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average-Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARIMA-EGARCH) and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average-Glosten, Jagannathan and Runkle Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (ARIMA-GJRGARCH) under normal and student-t distributions were employed to model the conditional variance while the GARCH-in-Mean-GARCH-type model corresponding to the selected ARIMA-GARCH-type model was applied to appraise the possible existence of serial correlations.
Results: The findings of this study showed that heteroscedasticity exists and appeared to be adequately captured by ARIMA(2,1,1)-EGARCH(1,1) model under student-t distribution but failed to account for the presence of serial correlations in the series. Meanwhile, its counterpart, GARCH-in-Mean-EGARCH(1,1) model under student-t distribution sufficiently appraised the existence of serial correlations.
Conclusion: One remarkable implication is that the estimates of the parameters of ARIMA-GARCH-type model are likely to be biased when the presence of serial correlations is ignored. Also, the application of GARCH-in-Mean-GARCH-type model possibly provides the feedback mechanism or interaction between the variance and mean equations.
Effect of Methanolic Extract of Vernonia amygdalina Leaves on Glycemic and Lipidaemic Indexes of Wistar Rats
Authors: Ogbuagu Emmanuel O. , Airaodion Augustine I. , Ogbuagu Uloaku , Airaodion Edith O. 
Published: July 2019

Aim: This study sought to investigate the effect of methanolic extract of Vernonia amygdalina leaves on glycemic and lipidaemic indexes of Wistar rats.
Methods: Fresh plants of V. amygdalina were harvested from the Institute of Agricultural Research and Training, Ibadan. The leaves were dried and extracted using soxhlet apparatus and methanol was used as the solvent. The solvent was recovered in a rotary evaporator at 35°C with a yield of 2.24 g which represents a percentage yield of 8.96%. Ten adult male Wistar rats with body weight between 100 and 120 g were used for this study. They were randomly divided into two groups of five rats each. Animals in group 1 were administered normal saline while those in group 2 were administered V. amygdalina extract. The animals were exposed to the extract and saline solution at a dose of 3 mL per 100 g body weight 12 hourly via oral route of administration. After fourteen days of administration, the animals were fasted overnight and anaesthetized using diethyl ether. Blood samples were collected by cardiac puncture. Fasting blood sugar and lipid profile were determined using standard methods.
Results: V. amygdalina leaves was observed to significantly lower fasting blood sugar, total cholesterol, triglyceride and VLDL-cholesterol but had no significant effect on the concentrations of HDL-cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol and HDL/LDL-cholesterol ratio when compared to those of the control group at p<0.05.
Conclusion: The lowering effect of V. amygdalina leaves on fasting blood sugar indicated that it has the propensity to be antidiabetic. Its effect on total cholesterol and triglyceride showed that V. amygdalina leaves could be useful in the control of obesity and hypertension.
Intraoperative Hypertensive Crisis in a Patient with Normotensive Primary Aldosteronism. Lessons from a Clinical Case
Authors: Kuzior Agnieszka , Nivelo-Rivadeneira Manuel Esteban , Fernandez-Trujillo-Comenge Paula , Perdomo-Herrera Esperanza , Tocino-Hernandez Alba Lucia , Martin-Perez Marta , Gonzalez-Diaz Paula , De Aja-Curbelo Maria Victoria Sainz , Santana-Suarez Ana Delia , Martinez-Martin Francisco Javier 
Published: July 2019

Primary hyperaldosteronism is the most frequent cause of secondary hypertension. However, it can also be found in apparently normotensive patients, often associated with recurrent hypokalemia and isolated hypertensive episodes.
We hereby present the case of a normotensive 50-year-old female patient with a surgical left kidney mass; however, after anaesthetic induction, surgery was aborted due to a severe hypertensive crisis. She was referred to our Hypertension Outpatient Clinic to rule out pheochromocytoma/ paraganglioma. The anamnesis revealed unexplained episodes of hypokalemia. Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring showed normal mean values of blood pressure and heart rate, with an isolated hypertensive peak. Plasma glucose, ions, creatinine, lipids, metanephrines and chromogranin A were normal, but plasma aldosterone was clearly elevated with suppressed plasma renin activity and high aldosterone/renin activity ratio. Primary aldosteronism was confirmed by the captopril test. Abdominal CT was compatible with left adrenal hyperplasia. Treatment with low-dose spironolactone was well tolerated and resulted in normal blood pressure, normokalemia and unsuppressed plasma renin activity. The patient underwent successful laparoscopic removal of a renal oncocytoma.
We conclude that normotensive primary aldosteronism is not harmless; it can be associated with severe hypokalemia, anxiety, depression, hypertensive crisis and cardiovascular damage. Patients can also develop resistant hypertension. Adequate treatment can decisively improve the survival and quality of life of the patients with primary aldosteronism, but a correct diagnosis is needed first. Therefore, it must be considered as a diagnostic possibility in normotensive patients with unexplained hypokalemia or isolated hypertensive episodes.
Phytochemical Analysis and Antiplasmodial (curative) Activities of Methanolic Leaf Extract of Morinda lucida (Ewe Oruwo) in Male Swiss Mice Infected with Plasmodium berghei NK65
Authors: Oshiobugie Momoh Johnson , Anthony Damazio Olanrewaju , Oladipupo Ajetunmobi Asibiallau , Omosalewa Babalola Adenike , Michael Adekunle Oluwasegun , Olabisi Busari Nafeesat , Aiyegbeni Musa Abdullahi 
Published: July 2019

Aim: Medicinal plants have been used for the treatment of many infections and diseases including malaria. The study was conducted to determine the effect of in vivo anti-plasmodial and antioxidant properties of the methanolic leaf extract of Morinda lucida in male Swiss albino mice infected with Plasmodium Berghei NK65.
Study Design and Methodology: Phytochemical, GC-MS and AAS analyses were determined in the plant. Swiss albino mice were inoculated intraperitoneally with Plasmodium berghei NK65. Thirty-five (35) mice were grouped into seven groups, five per group. Group A were not infected with P.berghei NK65. Group B, C and D served as the negative and positive control groups while Group E, F and G mice were treated with 400, 600 and 800 mg/kg body weight of methanolic leaf extract of M. lucida. Haematological parameters were determined in the whole blood using BC-3200 Auto Hematology Analyzer. TP, MDA, CAT, SOD % inhibition, SOD unit and vitamin A were all determined in the liver homogenate using standard procedures.
Results: The GC-MS result of the M. lucida shows the presence of five bioactive compounds. It was also observed that the plant contains the following minerals: iron, magnesium, potassium, phosphorus and copper. Acute toxicity shows that the LD50 >000mg/Kg b.wt. The extract caused 30.96%, 32.93% and 67.23% reduction in parasitemia at 400, 600 and 800 mg/kg body weight respectively while chloroquine exerted 96.53% and artesunate exerted 92.03% reduction at 10 mg/kg body weight respectively. The Haematological parameters showed that the plant extract is not haematotoxic since it significantly (P<0.05) reduced WBC count, and increase RBC, HGB, and HCT values in the treated mice compared to the infected untreated mice. This study shows that the mean lipid peroxidation (MDA) level was significantly decreased in the malaria treated mice (group C, D, E, F and G) compared to the untreated mice (group B). There was also a significant increase in the total protein, catalase, SOD % inhibition, SOD unit and Vitamin A levels in the liver homogenate of animals treated with chloroquine, artesunate and extract of M. lucida compared to the untreated mice.
Conclusions: The study shows that Morinda lucida possess antiplasmodial activity in male Swiss mice infected with Plasmodium berghei NK 65.
Thermoregulation and Haematological Responses to Induced Acute Haemorrhage in Adult Nubian Goats
Authors: Abdalla Selma E. , Abdelatif Abdalla M. , Omer Shadia A. 
Published: July 2019

Background and Objectives: Acute haemorrhage is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in surgery and trauma due to ischaemic lesions followed by multiple organ dysfunction. After haemorrhage, compensatory redistribution of blood volume may occur to more vital and survival organs. The objective of the study was evaluation of thermoregulation and haematological responses to acute haemorrhage in Nubian goats.
Materials and Methods: The study used 6 female mature goats, weighing 18.0 kg on average. The goats were subjected to 40% bleeding. The rectal temperature (Tr), respiration rate (RR) and heart rate (HR) were monitored before bleeding and then immediately after bleeding and at 1,2,3,4,5,6,24 hrs post-bleeding. Venous blood samples were collected before and then immediately after bleeding and at 6, 24, 48, 72 hrs post-bleeding. The haemoglobin concentration (Hb), packed cell volume (PCV), total leukocyte count(TLC), differential leukocyte count (DLC), serum total protein, albumin, and concentrations of sodium (Na) were determined.
Results: The post-bleeding values of Tr, RR and HR were significantly higher compared to the pre-bleeding values. The post-bleeding values of PCV, Hb concentration, erythrocyte count and TLC were lower compared to prebleeding values. The ratios of lymphocytes, monocytes and eosinophils decreased, whereas the neutrophil ratio increased post-bleeding. The values of serum total protein, albumin and serum Na concentrations decreased post-bleeding.
Conclusion: The studies indicate that the goat can be adopted as a valid research model in investigations of experimental haemorrhage. The findings have implications in the fields of veterinary haematology and surgery and comparative medicine.