Leukemia Risk Models in Primary Myelofibrosis: An International Working Group Study,
Authors: Tefferi Ayalew , Pardanani Animesh , Gangat Naseema , Begna Kebede , Hanson Curtis A. , Van Dyke Daniel L. , Caramazza Domenica , Vannucchi Alessandro M. , Morra Enrica , Cazzola Mario , Pereira Arturo , Cervantes Francisco , Passamonti Francesco 
Published: October 2019

Abstract
Abstract 3833

Background:
Survival in primary myelofibrosis (PMF) is assessed by the Dynamic International Prognostic Scoring System (DIPSS) (Blood 2010;115:1703) and DIPSS-plus (JCO 2011;29:392). The latter is based on eight risk factors including age>65 years, constitutional symptoms, hemoglobin <10 g/dL, red blood cell transfusion need, leukocyte count >25 × 109/L, platelet count <100 × 109/L, peripheral blood (PB) blasts ≥1% and unfavorable karyotype. Recent studies have highlighted the prognostic significance of monosomal karyotype (MK) (Blood 2011;117:5612), unfavorable karyotype (Leukemia 2011;25:82) and platelet count <100 × 109/L ((JCO 2011;29:392), for leukemic transformation (LT) in PMF.

Methods:
A combination of multivariable and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses were applied to a Mayo Clinic database of 884 karyotypically-annotated patients with PMF, in order to define karyotype-dependent and karyotype-independent risk models for LT. The karyotype-independent model was further validated in a separate cohort of 525 PMF patients from an international database (Blood 2010;115:1703). Patients in the Mayo cohort were evaluated at time of referral and those of the international database at time of initial diagnosis.

Results I:
Sixty cases of LT were documented. Karyotype (categorized into MK, inv(3)/i(17q) abnormalities, other unfavorable, and favorable), PB blast percentage (as a continuous variable), and platelet count (as a continuous variable) were the most reliable (p<0.01) in predicting leukemia-free survival (LFS). The best discriminant levels for inferior LFS were MK (HR 6.2, 95% CI 2.2–17.1), inv(3)/i(17q) abnormalities (HR 7.6, 95% CI 1.8–33.3), PB blast ≥2% (HR 2.4, 95% CI 1.4–4.2) and platelet count ≤41 × 109/L (HR 2.6, 95% CI 1.3–5.1). MK and inv(3)/i(17q) abnormalities were subsequently consolidated into one “very high risk” cytogenetic category (n =27), with a corresponding HR of 6.6 (95% CI 2.7–16.0). HR-based risk scores were assigned to “very high risk” karyotype (2 points), PB blast ≥2% (one point) and platelet count ≤50 × 109/L (one point) to classify patients into low (no adverse points; n =522), intermediate (one adverse point; n =290) and high risk (two or more adverse points; n =72) groups; the corresponding 3-year LT rates were 3%, 10% (HR 2.6; 95% CI 1.4–4.6) and 35% (HR 9.4, 95% CI 4.7–18.7) (Figure 1).

Results II:
The karyotype-independent model was based on PB blast percentage and platelet count only; low-risk (no adverse points; n =525), intermediate-risk (one adverse point; n =311) and high-risk (two adverse points; n =48); the corresponding 3-year LT rates were 3%, 12% (HR 3.1, 95% CI 1.8–5.4; p<0.0001) and 25% (HR 6.0, 95% CI 2.6–14.1). The karyotype-independent model was validated in a separate cohort of 525 PMF patients with 70 documented cases of LT, from an international database (Blood 2010;115:1703).

Conclusions:
The current leukemia risk models are applicable at diagnosis or during follow-up, in the presence or absence of cytogenetic information, and complement DIPSS-plus in the comprehensive prognostication of patients with PMF.

Disclosures:
Vannucchi: Novartis: Honoraria.