bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
On Extra Premiums
Authors: Lutt Harold Edward William 
Published: June 2019

The question of the premiums which should be charged to meet the eases of lives proposed for assurance admittedly incurring, or about to incur, risks more hazardous than those of the ordinary assured life, has from time to time engaged the attention of the Institute.More stress has, perhaps, been laid upon the mortality of persons living in tropical countries, where the conditions of life are very different from those to which we are here accustomed, and statistics, obtained either from official sources or from business experience, have been furnished; whilst the only occupations to which attention has been directed are the Naval, Military, and Mercantile Marine Services, and those connected with the sale of alcohol.With the view of obtaining, if possible, information respecting the modern practice of Life Assurance in connection with extra risks, I ventured to address to all the larger offices a Schedule intended to elicit such replies as would enable me to present a general idea of the methods applied to these cases.In this I hope I have partially succeeded, but I need not add that the information must be regarded in a very general light. Many offices were particular to point out that, in the absence of any ascertained experience, each case of this nature would be considered upon its individual merits, and rated accordingly.
Some points of interest in the operations of Friendly Societies, Railway Benefit Societies and Collecting Societies
Authors: Watson Alfred W. 
Published: June 2019

Nearly twenty-two years have elapsed since the masterly essay of our President gave to the institute an opportunity for comprehensive examination of the British friendly society system. During the intervening period, phases of the subject have been occasionally before the Institute, but the period has been one of great activity amongst the friendly societies, and developments of interest to actuaries culminating, it may be suggested, in the co-operation of the State and the societies proposed by the Chancellor of the Exchequer, have emerged. In the circumstances it has seemed to me that the Institute might again survey this wide field of provident effort with interest to its members and profit to the community.I propose accordingly to examine the more important groups of societies, paying particular regard in respect of the leading affiliated orders to the machinery by which it is sought to equip the constituent parts for the effective recognition of their duties; thence passing to some questions of special interest to ourselves. For the purpose of connected description it will be necessary to mention particular organizations, but I trust that nothing of what I have written may seem to depart from the excellent custom of neutrality which governs our debates. I venture indeed to say that so far from being unduly sensitive, all the societies which are striving for improvement (and I think this may be said of most of them) are receptive towards the stimulus of informed criticism.
Some Notes on the Establishment of the Office of Public Trustee in England
Authors: Sharman William Charles 
Published: June 2019

In bringing these Notes under the consideration of the members I feel some apology is needed for the reason that the subject may he said to be somewhat outside the scope of the ordinary proceedings of the Institute.In addition, however, to its legal aspects, which will doubtless appeal to a profession which demands from its members a not inconsiderable knowledge of law, I venture to think there are other grounds on which the subject may be considered suitable for discussion.The Public Trustee Act brings into being a Department, which, from its intimate connection with the affairs of the people and the large financial interests involved, may in course of time rank only second to some of the great Departments of the State, and, from this point of view alone, the subject is of interest.Moreover, it has a close connection with the work of many Actuaries owing to the large investments made by Life Offices in reversionary securities, this kind of investment being peculiarly affected by questions concerning the trusteeship.When, further, it is remembered that Insurance Companies form one of the classes of Corporate Bodies which may be authorized by the Treasury and Public Trustee to undertake the duties of Custodian Trustees, I think it will be admitted that the subject is one with which we are practically concerned.
I.—On the Valuation of the Payment on the Death of a Pensioner of the excess of his Contributions, with or without interest, over his pension payments and II.—On a Method of scheduling particulars for the Valuation, in certain cases, of prospective Pensions based on terminal Salaries
Authors: Tinner Thomas 
Published: June 2019

In many staff pension funds there is a provision that if a pensioner dies before his pension payments amount to the oaccumulation of his contributions (with or without compound interest) to the date of retirement, the difference shall be paid to his representatives.Although Mr. H. W. Manly and Mr. George King have dealt with the problèm of valuing this benefit, and Mr. Manly has shown how to calculate the rate of contribution to provide for it, the formulas presently to be deduced may be thought of sufficient interest to warrant their publication.In considering the benefit mentioned above, it will be seen that if—(i) the contributions amount to n times the yearly pension,(ii) the annuity used in valuing the pension be continuous,(iii) the benefit be valued on the assumption that the funds earn no interest—the value of the benefit at the date of retirement, for each unit of annual pension, will be as follows, assuming the deaths to be equally distributed over the year:Of lx persons retiring at age x, dx will die in the year of age x to x + 1, and as they will, on the average, die in the middle of the year, there will be payable in respect of them (n − ½)dx, being the amount of their contributions less ½dx which they will have received as pension.
Notes on the Construction of Mortality Tables
Authors: Elderton W. Palin , Fippard Richard C. 
Published: June 2019

The following notes are an attempt to show(1) How select and aggregate rates of mortality can be found from insurance office data by the methods at present used to find rates of mortality from censuses and the records of deaths among the general population, and(2)How the census method can be modified in the case of a prolonged investigation to give a continuous mortality investigation.We have also tried to deal with a few of the objections to the method, and some of the practical points that arise in its application.
The Analysis of Life Office Expenses
Authors: Maltby Charles Hugh 
Published: June 2019

In turning over the pages of the Journal, one is struck by the number of papers which would have been rendered far more valuable if more detailed data of the actual expenses of management had been available. Probably less is known about expenses than about any other factor involved in our daily actuarial work; and this comparative ignorance is the more remarkable when we remember the immense amount of thought and research which has been expended on the subjects of Mortality and Interest.Perhaps good reasons existed in the past for this comparative neglect; but it appears to me that the time is approaching—if it has not already arrived—when it will be absolutely necessary to investigate the subject of expenses to the fullest possible extent. To mention only one aspect of the subject, there is a general impression that expenses are tending to increase, and hence it becomes important for each office to ascertain whether this impression is correct in its own case, and if so, the causes of the increase. These questions can only be answered by a full analysis; but if this is possible any increase will be robbed of much of its force, even if its cause cannot be removed. Certainly expenses are at least as worthy of investigation as mortality, and will probably yield more valuable results, since they, at least, are susceptible of regulation.
Presidential Address on the Theory of Proportion
Authors: Hill M. J. M. 
Published: June 2019

In the second edition of my Contents of the Fifth and Sixth Books of Euclid I have taken the ideas stated in the preceding article as my starting point, and built up the conditions involved in the 5th and 7th definitions in the following way:
1.The ratio of a magnitude A to another magnitude B of the same kind is a real number, rational or irrational, determined in the manner explained in what follows. It is denoted by the symbol A : B.2.If the magnitudes A and B have a common measure G, so that A = aG, B = bG, where a, b are positive whole numbers, then A : B is defined to be the rational number .
FINDING NONSTATIONARY STATE PROBABILITIES OF OPEN MARKOV NETWORKS WITH MULTIPLE CLASSES OF CUSTOMERS AND VARIOUS FEATURES
Authors: Matalytski Mikhail , Kopats Dmitry 
Published: June 2019

This paper discusses a system of difference-differential equations (DDE) that is satisfied by the time-dependent state probabilities of open Markov queueing networks with various features. The number of network states in this case and the number of equations in this system is infinite. Flows of customers arriving at the network are a simple and independent, the time of customer services is exponentially distributed. The intensities of transitions between the network states are deterministic functions depending on its states.To solve the system of DDE, we propose a modified method of successive approximations, combined with the method of series. The convergence of successive approximations with time to a stationary probability distribution, the form of which is indicated in the paper has been proved. The sequence of approximations converges to a unique solution of the system of equations. Any successive approximation can be represented as a convergent power series with an infinite radius of convergence, the coefficients of which satisfy recurrence relations, which is convenient for calculations on a computer. Examples of the analysis of Markov G-networks with various features have been presented.
Conditional Effects of Lifetime Alcohol Consumption on Methamphetamine-Associated Neurocognitive Performance
Authors: Saloner Rowan , Paolillo Emily W. , Umlauf Anya , Moore David J. , Heaton Robert K. , Grant Igor , Cherner Mariana ,   The TMARC Group
Published: June 2019

AbstractObjectives:Methamphetamine (MA) dependence contributes to neurotoxicity and neurocognitive deficits. Although combined alcohol and MA misuse is common, how alcohol consumption relates to neurocognitive performance among MA users remains unclear. We hypothesized that alcohol and MA use would synergistically diminish neurocognitive functioning, such that greater reported alcohol consumption would exert larger negative effects on neurocognition among MA-dependent individuals compared to MA-nonusing persons.Methods:Eighty-seven MA-dependent (MA+) and 114 MA-nonusing (MA−) adults underwent neuropsychological and substance use assessments. Linear and logistic regressions examined the interaction between MA status and lifetime average drinks per drinking day on demographically corrected global neurocognitive T scores and impairment rates, controlling for recent alcohol use, lifetime cannabis use, WRAT reading performance, and lifetime depression.Results:MA+ displayed moderately higher rates of impairment and lower T scores compared to MA−. Lifetime alcohol use significantly interacted with MA status to predict global impairment (ORR = 0.70, p = .003) such that greater lifetime alcohol use increased likelihood of impairment in MA−, but decreased likelihood of impairment in MA+. Greater lifetime alcohol use predicted poorer global T scores among MA− (b = −0.44, p = .030) but not MA+ (b = 0.08, p = .586).Conclusions:Contrary to expectations, greater lifetime alcohol use related to reduced risk of neurocognitive impairment among MA users. Findings are supported by prior research identifying neurobiological mechanisms by which alcohol may attenuate stimulant-driven vasoconstriction and brain thermotoxicity. Replication and examination of neurophysiologic mechanisms underlying alcohol use in the context of MA dependence are warranted to elucidate whether alcohol confers a degree of neuroprotection.
Attitudes and perceptions among urban South Africans towards sugar-sweetened beverages and taxation
Authors: Bosire Edna N , Stacey Nicholas , Mukoma Gudani , Tugendhaft Aviva , Hofman Karen , Norris Shane A 
Published: June 2019

AbstractObjective:A tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) was introduced in South Africa in April 2018. Our objective was to document perceptions and attitudes among urban South Africans living in Soweto on factors that contribute to their SSB intake and on South Africa’s use of a tax to reduce SSB consumption.Design:We conducted six focus group discussions using a semi-structured guide.Setting:The study was conducted in Soweto, Johannesburg, South Africa, 3 months before South Africa’s SSB tax was implemented.Participants:Adults aged 18 years or above living in Soweto (n 57).Results:Participants reported frequent SSB consumption and attributed this to habit, addiction, advertising and wide accessibility of SSB. Most of the participants were not aware of the proposed SSB tax; when made aware of the tax, their responses included both beliefs that it would and would not result in reduced SSB intake. However, participants indicated cynicism with regard to the government’s stated motivation in introducing the tax for health rather than revenue reasons.Conclusions:While an SSB tax is a policy tool that could be used with other strategies to reduce people’s high level of SSB consumption in Soweto, our findings suggest a need to complement the SSB tax with a multipronged behaviour change strategy. This strategy could include both environmental and individual levers to reduce SSB consumption and its associated risks.
On the Flying Fish
Authors: Shadbolt L. 
Published: June 2019

I have been requested to write a short paper on the flight of the flying fish and the lessons which this act may afford in the steering and management of an aëroplane in flight.As yet we are still striving to attain success in aërial flight by means of a machine heavier than air. Many remarkable flights have been recorded quite recently, and the art of aviation has advanced during the past few months by leaps and bounds. It now appears clear that under favourable conditions, still air, or with but a moderate wind and an open course, an aëroplane may be constructed, or soon will be, which can remain in the air as long as the motive power which drives the propeller is maintained, or practically as long as the supply of petrol capable of being carried holds out.
The Laws of Air Screws: I.–The Screw Without Axial Motion
Authors: Turnbull W. R. 
Published: June 2019

In the design of aeroplanes, I have been constantly hampered by lack of reliable formulaæ that would give the thrust and horse-power required for a given diameter, pitch, speed, etc., of screws. The theoretical formulæ are too complex and uncertain for concrete computations, so I have undertaken an experimental study of air screws and have endeavoured to deduce formulæ, from the experimental data, which shall be reliable and at the same time cover the complexities that must enter with screws of widely differing elements such as blade area, form, pitch, etc.M. S. Drzewiecki, in his excellent theoretical study of Air Screws, says “the question of screws in general is very complex, and poorly enough understood from a theoretical standpoint,” and we might add it is almost equally complex and little understood from the practical and experimental standpoint.
Notes on the Present Position of Mechanical Flight in France
Authors: Lloyd Herbert F. 
Published: June 2019

For more than a century past the problem of human flight by means of heavier-than-air machines appears to have exercised a strong fascination on the minds of French inventors and engineers, and since November, 1906, as the result of Santos Dumont's classic experiments, and more recently the longer successful flights of Henri Farman and Léon Delagrange, even the general public has become interested in the subject, and has at last been taught to realise that dynamic flight is not only a possibility, but a fact, and that with each day which passes the success already attained is being steadily carried another step forward towards the evolution of the eventual type of perfected machine.If we except the performances of the Brothers Wright in America, it is admitted that France has led, and is still leading, the aeronautical progress of the world, and it is not difficult to understand why this should be the case.
Stability of Aëroplane Support for Flying Machines
Authors: Wenham F. H. 
Published: June 2019

The earliest attempts at flights by man have been by extended wings in imitation of those of bats or birds, all of which have ended with failure, or fatal accidents.The bird-wing type for supporting a man and mechanism in air must extend at least 60 feet from end to end, and be very light and strong, for carrying the weight—an impracticable construction. All this is fully explained in a paper read by me in 1866 at the first meeting of the Aeronautical Society of Great Britain, of which I was the pioneer.Perceiving that a single pair of far- extended wings was impossible for man flight, I evaded lateral extension by placing a system of five aëroplanes, or webs, above each other. The upper one slightly in advance.
The Aerodynamic Resistance of Bars, Struts and Wires-IV
Authors: Thurston A. P. 
Published: June 2019

The shielding effects of struts and bars. In the previous communications, I., II., and III., the aerodynamic resistance of single bars, struts, and wires was investigated. The object of the investigation herein described was to determine the shielding effect of one bar mounted in the direct path of another bar of identical length, shape, and size.Method of mounting the specimens. The upper bar was suspended from the fork of the balance at two points 6 inches apart in the manner described in communication II., and the identical lower bar was pivoted to the upper bar by two parallel wires 6 inches apart. Means were provided to allow the lower bar to be gradually lowered away from the upper bar. The axis of the bars were kept parallel and the ends of the two bars were kept exactly beneath one another throughout the experiments. All the bars were 24 inches long and $ inch thick.
Modeling the Impacts of Urbanization on Summer Thermal Comfort: The Role of Urban Land Use and Anthropogenic Heat
Authors: Yang Ben , Yang Xuchao , Leung L. Ruby , Zhong Shiyuan , Qian Yun , Zhao Chun , Chen Feng , Zhang Yaocun , Qi Jiaguo 
Published: June 2019

AbstractUrban land use and anthropogenic heat (AH) emission can considerably influence the human thermal comfort during extreme heat events. In this study, a spatially heterogeneous AH emission data and updated urban land use data are integrated into the Weather Research and Forecasting model to simulate the physical processes of urban warming during summer. Simulations conducted in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) of east China suggest that the mean urban heat island intensity reaches 1.49 °C in urbanized areas during summer, with AH emission making a considerable contribution. The warming effect due to urban land use is intensified during extremely hot days, but in contrast, the AH effects are slightly reduced. Urban development increases the total thermal discomfort hours by 27% in the urban areas of YRD, with AH and urban land use contributing nearly equal amount. By limiting the daytime latent heat release, urban land use reduces the daily maximum heat stress particularly during extremely hot days; however, such alleviations can be offset by the AH emission. Strategies for mitigation of urban heat island effect and heat stress in cities should therefore include measures to reduce AH emission.
Sensitivity of Hail Precipitation to Ensembles of Uncertainties of Representative Initial Environmental Conditions From ECMWF
Authors: Li Xiaofei , Zhang Fuqing , Zhang Qinghong , Kumjian Matthew R. 
Published: June 2019

AbstractThe sensitivity of hail precipitation from an idealized hailstorm to realistic environmental uncertainties was investigated through ensembles of cloud‐resolving simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, with initial condition perturbations derived from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) operational ensemble. The analyses revealed that hail precipitation rate was very sensitive to small initial environmental perturbations, particularly in thermodynamic variables. The hail precipitation rate was significantly positively correlated with perturbations to the initial potential temperature below 750 hPa and to water vapor mixing ratio above 750 hPa. These small initial perturbations led to subsequent substantial differences in hail precipitation as well as in characteristics of the parent storm (e.g., updraft velocity, diabatic heating, and microphysical processes), all of which play a key role in hail growth. The larger sensitivity of hail precipitation to thermodynamic rather than kinematic environmental initial condition perturbations persisted even when the magnitude of the perturbations was reduced to 10% of the realistic uncertainties derived from the ECMWF ensemble. In the ensemble with reduced‐amplitude initial perturbations, there was still a moderately strong positive correlation between hail precipitation rate and the initial perturbations of the thermodynamic variables. However, these sensitivities were nonlinear, suggesting that the intrinsic predictability of hail precipitation rate may be limited, even when environmental uncertainties are reduced to 10%, 1.0 × 10−3, and 1.0 × 10−5 of the currently realistic magnitude of initial condition uncertainty.
A 5.3‐Million‐Year History of Monsoonal Precipitation in Northwestern Australia
Authors: Stuut Jan‐Berend W. , De Deckker Patrick , Saavedra‐Pellitero Mariem , Bassinot Franck , Drury Anna Joy , Walczak Maureen H. , Nagashima Kana , Murayama Masafumi 
Published: June 2019

AbstractNew proxy records from deep‐sea sediment cores from the northwestern continental margin of Western Australian reveal a 5.3 million year (Ma) history of aridity and tropical monsoon activity in northwestern Australia. Following the warm and dry early Pliocene (~5.3 Ma), the northwestern Australian continent experienced a gradual increase in humidity peaking at about 3.8 Ma with higher than present‐day rainfall. Between 3.8 and about 2.8 Ma, climate became progressively more arid with more rainfall variability. Coinciding with the onset of the Northern Hemisphere glaciations and the intensification of the Northern Hemisphere monsoon, aridity continued to increase overall from 2.8 Ma until today, with greater variance in precipitation and an increased frequency of large rainfall events. We associate the observed large‐scale fluctuations in Australian aridity with variations in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures, which largely control the monsoonal precipitation in northwestern Australia.