bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Two-State Poisson Hidden Markov Models for Analysis of Seismicity Activity Rates in West Nusa Tenggara
Authors: Azizah Nur , Astutik Suci , Nurjannah  
Published: June 2019

Abstract
Awareness of seismicity activity rates could be learned from modeling the earthquake events by utilizing the record of seismicity events data in NTB over time which is associated with count time series data. Poisson Hidden Markov Model (PHMM) has been widely applied in various fields, including earthquake event. Therefore, it would be interesting to implement PHMM on earthquake case in NTB. The data can be analyze using PHMM as we can ignore the over-dispersion and dependency relationship among data. The model is the development of Markov Model that consists of (a) observed state, which can be observed directly and (b) hidden state, which cannot be observed directly because it is hidden. Hidden state in this research is defined as seismicity activity rates classified into a low rate and high rate (2 states). The count time series data of earthquake events will be more informative when it is classified into the seismicity activity levels. This research applied earthquake event data (magnitude ≤ M4.7 and depth < 60 km) from January 2009 until September 2018, collected from USGS (United States Geological Survey). The parameter estimation method used in this research is the Bayesian method. The objective of this research is to obtain parameters of 2 state Poisson Hidden Markov Model using the Bayesian approach. Model validation measured by MAE (Mean Absolute Error). Based on the result, the average earthquake cases caused by low seismicity activity rate in NTB over time is 1 event whilst the high rate is 18 events. The probability of low seismicity activity rate influenced by the previous rate and the long run behavior (steady state) in NTB is still larger than the high rate. The achieved two-state PHMM is suitable for modeling the earthquake case in NTB with MAE values of 0.4079.
Comparison of Curve Estimation of the Smoothing Spline Nonparametric Function Path Based on PLS and PWLS In Various Levels of Heteroscedasticity
Authors: Rinaldo Fernandes Adji Achmad , Hutahayan Benny , Solimun  , Arisoesilaningsih Endang , Yanti Indah , Astuti Ani Budi , Nurjannah  , Amaliana Luthfatul 
Published: June 2019

Abstract
Linearity assumption that has not been fulfilled in the path analysis should use nonparametric approach. This research uses smoothing spline nonparametric path analysis with generated data where the condition of heteroscedasticity level measured through MAPD statistic will be applied to the data. The conditions are MAPD 0.01 – 0.20; 0.21 – 0.40; 0.41 – 0.60; 0.61 – 0.80; and 0.81 – 1.00. The purpose of this research is to determine the comparison of curve estimation of spline smoothing nonparametric path function on every level of heteroscedasticity category (DM) and without considering the heteroscedasticity (TM). The research results found that relative efficiency value of DM (PWLS) estimator with TM (PLS) that is always more than 1 for every heteroscedasticity level and every observation size. Thus, it was obtained better DM estimator (PWLS approach) comparing to TM (PLS).
Dynamical Analysis on the Model of Tuberculosis Spread with Vaccination and Saturated Incident Rate
Authors: Indrayani S. W. , Kusumawinahyu W. M. , Trisilowati  
Published: June 2019

Abstract
This research concern with dynamical analysis of a SVLIT (Susceptible Vaccination Latent Infective Treatment) model. It represents the spread of tuberculosis with vaccination and saturated incident rate. The incident rate is considered because of the barriers effect due to changes in susceptible individuals behavior. This model has two equilibrium points, namely disease-free equilibrium point which always exists and an endemic equilibrium point that exists under some certain conditions. The local stability of the equilibrium points is investigated by using Routh-Hurwitz criteria. The method of next generation matrix is applied to determine the basic reproduction number R
0. It can be shown numerically that disease-free equilibrium point is local asymptotically stable when R
0 < 1, while the endemic equilibrium point exist and local asymptotically stable when R
0 > 1. Numerical simulations are given to illustrate the theoretical results.
Probabilistic Inventory Model with Expiration Date and All-Units Discount
Authors: Limansyah Taufik , Lesmono Dharma 
Published: June 2019

Abstract
Inventory is a substantial factor for company to ensure the continuity of its production process. In the inventory management, products usually have expiration date that should be considered in the inventory model, especially in chemical or food industry. Another factor that has an influence to the inventory model is discount factor offered by the supplier. A retailer can accept this offer in order to reduce its total inventory cost. Although buying in a large quantity can decrease purchase cost per unit and set up cost, but it can increase holding cost and expiration cost which all directly has an impact in the total inventory cost. Inventory model with expiration date and all-units discount for probabilistic demand is the focus of this paper. From the mathematical model, an optimal order quantity that minimize the total cost of inventory can be obtained. In building the mathematical model, we assume that lead time is constant and the lead time demand follows Gamma distribution. Numerical examples are given to illustrate our model and algorithm to find the optimal solution. Sensitivity analysis for parameters used in the model is also performed in order to see the impact on the optimal order quantity and total inventory cost.
Modelling of Poverty Percentage of Non-Food Per Capita Expenditures in Indonesia Using Least Square Spline Estimator
Authors: Massaid A. , Hanif M. , Febrianti D. , Chamidah N. 
Published: June 2019

Abstract
The average per capita expenditure is the cost incurred for the consumption of all household members for a month divided by the number of household members. The higher expenditure per capita, the higher level of welfare of the population. In Indonesia, the number of non-food per capita expenditures increases every year and followed by a decrease in the number of poor people. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the effect of changes in per capita non-food expenditure on the percentage of poor people in Indonesia. To investigate it, in this paper, we use nonparametric regression model based on least square spline estimator that could accommodate the data patterns changing at certain points. The results show that for every one-million-rupiah increase in per capita non-food expenditure, if the expenditure per capita is less than 0.47 million rupiah, the percentage of poverty will decrease 68.71%, and if per capita expenditure is more than 0.47, the percentage of poverty will decrease 5.96%.
Generalized Method of Moment Application in Simultaneous Dynamic Panel Data Equations for Economic Growth, CO2 Emissions, and Health Expenditures Modelling
Authors: Nafngiyana Ulin , Setiawan  , Rahayu Santi Puteri 
Published: June 2019

Abstract
Sustainable development is one of the goals of ASEAN as a UN cooperation partner. The high level of CO2 emissions as one indicator of the decline in environmental quality in several ASEAN member countries, requiring an appropriate policy in order to achieve sustainable development targets. Based on previous research, the relationship between CO2 emissions, income, and health expenditure is not only simultaneous but also dynamic (changes in a variable spread to the current period and future periods). The relationship between these variables can be described in a system of dynamic simultaneous equations. The ten ASEAN country panel data for eight years (2008-2015) will be used by applying a simultaneous dynamic data panel model. GMM-System Estimator and GMM Arellano-Bond are used to estimate the parameters of dynamic models. Based on the accuracy of the sign with economic theory as well as from the standard error estimator produced, estimates from the GMM-System Estimator are considered better. The resulting estimates indicate a significant simultaneous influence between health expenditure and per capita income and between health expenditure and CO2 emissions. Per capita income growth affects the growth of CO2 emissions indirectly through per capita health expenditure. In addition, the lag of each variable, namely per capita income, per capita health expenditure, and CO2 emission has a positive and significant effect that indicates a long-run multiplier effect.
Modelling of the Advanced Level National Examination Average Pass Rate in Zimbabwe using Bayesian Hierarchical Log-logistic and Normal Mixture Approach
Authors: Ngwarati Barbara , Iriawan Nur , Kuswanto Heri 
Published: June 2019

Abstract
The national examination as one of the standard evaluation systems of education in Zimbabwe is used for the educational developments that seek to improve the quality of education in the educational sectors. This research aims to find the best model and its factors affecting the average pass rate of the Advanced Level (A-Level) national examination in Zimbabwe. Modelling was conducted using a two-level hierarchical model with factors influencing the national examination at district in the first level and those influencing the national examination provincial level in the second level. The Bayesian approaches namely hierarchical log-logistic and normal mixture were used in the modelling. The estimation of these Bayesian approaches posterior parameters was done using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) value was used to select the best model. The hierarchical normal mixture was found to be the best model to explain the variability of the average pass rate percentage of the A–Level national examination and all the micro and macro variables in this study significantly influenced the A-Level national examination in Zimbabwe.
Parameter Interval Estimation of Semiparametric Spline Truncated Regression Model for Longitudinal Data
Authors: Prawanti Dasty Dewi , Nyoman Budiantara I , Purnomo Jerry D.T. 
Published: June 2019

AbstractRegression analysis is one method in statistics that is used to determine the pattern of functional relationships between response variables with predictor variables. Semiparametric regression approach is a combination of parametric regression and nonparametric regression. The most popular estimator for nonparametric regression or semiparametric regression is spline truncated estimator. Spline is the estimation method that is most often used because it has excellent statistical interpretation and visual interpretation compared to other methods. Regression modelling using longitudinal data is often found in everyday life, where observations are carried out for each subject over a period of time. Interval estimation is often examined by nonparametric regression and semiparametric regression; this estimation aims to determine predictor variables that have a significant influence on the response variable. One indicator used in poverty analysis is the poverty line. Based on Indonesia’s macro poverty analysis calculations, in the period March 2016 to March 2017, the poverty line increased by 5.67 percent, with increases in urban and rural areas at 5.79 percent and 5.19 percent respectively. Modelling using semiparametric spline truncated regression for longitudinal data on data on the percentage of poor people in Indonesia produces the best model usingW1weighting and one point knot. Based on the results of the study with a significance level of 0.05, it was found that the percentage of poor people was influenced by the human development index (HDI) and the unemployment rate. This semiparametric regression model has a minimum GCV value of 1.677, MSE of 5.477 × 10−2and R2value of 98.67%.
Image Enhancement Sputum Containing Mycobacterium Tuberculosis Using A Spatial Domain Filter
Authors: Rachmad Aeri , Chamidah Nur , Rulaningtyas Riries 
Published: June 2019

AbstractImage enhancement sputum is needed to identify bacteria mycobacterium tuberculosis (TB). The number of TB bacteria in sputum images determines the severity of tuberculosis sufferers. In this paper, we study image enhancement sputum techniques by using spatial domain filter-based methods such as median filtering, Gaussian filtering, adaptive noise-removal filtering and bilateral filtering. These filtering techniques are used to overcome the problems when taking sputum images such as adjusting the focus of the lens, lighting and dirt that stick to the lens and on the slide glass. The obtained results for 100 data sputum images from this study are average means square error (MSE) of median filtering, Gaussian filtering, adaptive noise-removal filtering and bilateral filtering, i.e., 30.68, 17.10, 18.92 and 26.28, respectively. Also, average peak signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR) of them are 33.70 dB, 35.91 dB, 35.59 dB and 34.01 dB, respectively. The avarage computational time are 0.09 sec, 0.18 sec, 0.38 sec and 134 sec respectively.
System Dynamics Modeling of Indonesia Road Transportation Energy Demand and Scenario Analysis to achieve National Energy Policy Target
Authors: Setiawan I C , Indarto  , Deendarlianto  
Published: June 2019

Abstract
The Indonesian transportation sector is currently the nation’s largest consumer of petroleum products and a significant source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions overall. Many policies have been implemented by central and local governments, from the introduction of alternative fuels until demand management like odd-even policy; results, however, are in most cases disappointing. This paper explained a system dynamics model for the road transportation sector in Indonesia. The model considers basic policy options under Activity, Structure, Intensity, and Fuel (ASIF) framework and includes two main objectives, i.e., reduction of energy consumption and CO2 emission. Policy scenarios were developed to cover business as usual (REF), transport demand management (TDM), the introduction of fuel economy (FE) standard and feebate system (FEE), adoption of electric vehicles (EV) which considers future technological improvement factors and fuel switching strategy. The result indicates that it is mandatory to have a policy mix as the most effective strategy to reduce energy consumption, CO2 emission and achieve national energy mix target in 2050.
Non-monoton Nonparametric Variogram to Model the Land Price of Manado City with Hole Effect Periodicity Structure
Authors: Weku Winsy , Pramoedyo Henny , Widodo Agus , Fitriani Rahma 
Published: June 2019

Abstract
In spatial analysis, the experimental variogram fitting generally uses a mathematical variogram model such as monotonous spherical, exponential Gaussian along with increasing distance lag. However, there are certain cases, in this case the land price in Manado which raises experimental variogram in the form of non-monotonous (hole effect) as well as sinusoidal waves. This means that experimental variogram matching must be done as well as possible based on the positive definite function or at least following the hole effect pattern at the first peak. This study offers a variogram multiplicative-additive operation to combine monotonous and non-monotonous models in a nonparametric manner. The monotonous model used is a Gaussian-type for the amplitude of the hole effect, while the non-monotonous model is the first order zero-form Bessel function to indicate the wavelength. Based on measurements of the accuracy of RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) and MAE (Mean Absolute Error), combining the two models is relatively good and successful in fitting experimental variograms of land prices that have indicators of hole effect with periodicity. The hybrid composition of these models (non monotonous and monotonous models) provides a better approach to the experimental variogram compared to the previous mathematical monoton variogram models. To model Manado’s land price which has a hole effect, it would be more appropriate to use the Bessel composition model on the basis of p = 1 and the Gaussian-type model at m = 1 (or Exponential).
Synthesis of 2-methyl-5-methoxy-1,4-benzoquinone and In-silico Activity Profiling Toward Cytochrome P450-3A4
Authors: Dwisari Fath , Srihardyastutie Arie , Ulfa Siti Mariyah 
Published: June 2019

Abstract
The synthesis of 2-methyl-5-methoxy-1,4-benzoquinone (2) was carried out by reflux of 2-methyl-1,4-benzoquinone (1) with MeOH and ZnCl2 for 12 hours at ambient. The reaction resulted a yellow needle crystal in 6.92 % yield (m.p 173-175°C). The FT-IR analysis showed the presence of -OCH3 group at 1210 cm−1. The analysis using 1H-NMR showed chemical shift a δ = 3.81 ppm and the 13C-NMR gave 56.38 ppm for hydrogen and carbon from -OCH3 group. The bioavailability tests were determined by using in silico approach included lipophilicity (log P) and half maximum inhibitory concentration (IC50). It showed that the lipophilicity of 2 (log P = 0.92) is lower than 1 (log P = 1.79) which is calculated using Hyperchem software. The molecular docking of 2 towards cytochrome P450-3A4 showed a good result with IC50 13.68 ppm better than 1 (IC50 65.617 ppm). Further experimental is proposed for bromoalkylation of 2 using bromooctanoic acid to give 3-(7-bromoheptyl)-2-methyl-5-methoxy-1,4-benzoquinone (3). The in-silico calculation of 3 showed better lipophilicity (log P = 3.64) and IC50 (9.725 ppm) compared to 2. This result indicated that the addition of methoxyl and bromoalkyl group can improve the activity of the compound as a drug candidate.
Neprilysin inhibitor from herbal compounds as the latest adjuvant treatment of chronic heart failure
Authors: Nurhafsyah L P , Kusumawati R , Indarto D 
Published: June 2019

Abstract
Neprilysin (NEP) is an endopeptidase that metabolizes vasoactive peptides such as natriuretic peptides. Angiotensin Receptor-Neprilysin Inhibitor (ARNI) is an alternative therapy for chronic heart failure (CHF) which is better than angiotensin receptor antagonist therapy alone. This study aimed to identify herbal compounds as in silico NEP inhibitor for adjuvant treatment of CHF. In this study, structure of NEP was obtained from Protein Data Bank (5JMY) and sacubitril as a standard ligand was obtained from PubChem database (9811834). Indonesian herbal compounds were derived from the HerbalDB database that met criteria of Lipinski’s rule. Binding affinity and sites were determined using the AutoDock Vina software. Interaction of herbal compounds and NEP were visualized using the PyMol software. Indonesian herbal compounds with the same binding site at Arg102 dan Arg110 amino acids with sacubitril (-6.73 ± 0.06 Kcal/mol) was NSC9324 (-7.07 ± 0.05 Kcal/mol). From 517 herbal compounds, NSC93241 had similar conformation to the standard ligand. NSC93241 has similar molecular formula and molecular weight to herbal plant (Ruscus aculeatus Linn or Butcher’s broom). NSC93241 potentially becomes an NEP inhibitor in silico for adjuvant treatment of CHF. Further investigation is required for evaluation of the antagonist effect of this compound towards NEP.
Study of Citronellal Condensation Reactions with 1,2-phenylenediamine by CuSO4 Catalyst under Microwave Irradiation
Authors: Rahmawati L M , Warsito  , Iftitah E D 
Published: June 2019

Abstract
Benzimidazole compounds were prepared from the condensation reaction between 1,2-phenylenediamine and citronellal. In all cases, the condensation reaction is very selective and simple method under microwave conditions. The reaction takes place efficiently in ambient conditions with good results. Citronellal was used as the starting material for the synthesis of benzimidazoles because of their antibacterial activity. The strength of benzimidazole activity not only influenced by its main ring but also by the presence of substituents that bound to imidazole or aromatic ring. In this work, the purification of citronellal from kaffir lime oil was conducted by using salt reaction with NaHSO3 saturated solution and hydrolysis by NaOH saturated solution. The synthesis reaction proceeds using CuSO4 catalyst in dichloromethane as a solvent with mole ratio variation of 1,2-phenylenediamine to citronellal, 1:2, 1:3, 1:4, and 1:5, respectively. The optimum reaction was obtained at 1:2 and 1:3 mole ratio of citronellal. The yield of the product is 5.76 % and 5.097 % (m.p 140-143°C). FTIR analysis showed spectrum bands for C=N at 1671 cm−1 and C-N 1269 cm−1. Characterization was carried out using MS and showed that the synthesized product had a molecular weight m/z: 243, 381 and 453. Analysis result from FTIR, mass spectrometry and melting point indicated the product of benzimidazole derivatives was successfully obtained in this study.
Different Response of Hydroponically Grown Vegetables to the Addition of Nostoc sp. GIA13a as an alternative nitrogen source
Authors: Salamah Andi , Fadilah Nurrahmi , Khairiyah Istatik , Hendrayanti Dian 
Published: June 2019

AbstractVegetable growth needs nitrogen (N) supply in the form of nitrate and or ammonium. Alternative environmental-friendly nitrogen can be provided by using N2-fixing cyanobacteria, such asNostoc. This study investigated the effect ofNostocsp. GIA13a to spinach (Amaranthussp.) and water spinach (Ipomoea aquatica) grown in modified Nutrient Film Technique (NFT) system provided with Hoagland Solution. The treatments of nitrogen in Hoagland Solution were as follows: nitrate+GIA13a (NGia), nitrate without GIA13a (N), ammonium+nitrate (AN), ammonium+GIA13a (AGia) and ammonium without GIA13a(A). Inoculant of 2 g was added at the 1stand 14thday after planting (dap). Experiment was carried out for 21 days. The result showed that spinach and water spinach had different physiological responses to the occurrence ofNostocsp. Gia13a in nutrient solution. Total chlorophyll of spinach was increased in treatment with GIA13a inoculation, while it was decreased in water spinach. Ammonium consumption of water spinach was higher than spinach as shown by ammonium concentration on the nutrient solution after 14 days experiment. Inoculation ofNostocsp. Gia13a also triggered the growth of lateral shoot of water spinach. During experiment, chlorosis symptom was observed in young leaves of both plants. Chlorosis symptom in water spinach occurred in all treatment except NGia, while in spinach the symptom was found only in AGia and A.