bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Defining neighborhood walkability for children in the ELFE cohort study
Authors: Parker D , Chazelas E , Melchior M 
Published: October 2024

Abstract

Background
Although walkability is known to be associated with obesity in adults, there is a paucity of data evaluating the association of walkability and health outcomes in children. In particular, little is known regarding the possible association with children’s mental health.

Methods
We used data from the Etude Longitudinale Française depuis l’Enfance (ELFE) cohort study. Participating mothers gave birth in 2011 in a representative sample of 320 maternity hospitals in mainland France. This pilot study is limited to participants in Paris and children at 5.5 years old. Walkability is defined by three parameters: population density (defined by census data), street connectivity (defined by intersection density), and land-use mix (entropy index). To approximate walkable areas, 500-meter street-network buffer zones were created around each participants address using a geographic information system. Children’s mental health was assessed using parent-reported Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire at age 5.5 years.

Results
There was a total of 280 children in this pilot study. On measures of land-use mix, we found a mean of 0.79 (SD: 0.12), representing high accessibility. Residential and intersection density were highly correlated (p &lt; 0.01). The walkability index demonstrated high variability among participants (mean: 10.6; SD: 10.44; range: -1.67 - 30.59).

Conclusions
Developing a walkability index is a multifactorial measure to describe a children’s neighborhood environment. Future work includes determining the association with children’s mental health disorders, while accounting for individual and neighborhood variables. This ecological model can inform social epidemiology and contextual disparities in children’s health.

Key messages
• Little is known about neighborhood walkability and the association with children’s mental health.
• Using objective measures to calculate neighborhood composition and help elucidate this relationship.
Unveiling loneliness: health determinants of feeling alone in the older urban residents
Authors: Kozela M , Ciochoń A , Pająk A 
Published: October 2024

Abstract

In older people health condition contributes to the feeling of being alone (loneliness). We aimed to assess which chronic health conditions are the strongest determinants of loneliness in older urban residents. Participants of the Polish part of the HAPIEE Study (Health Alcohol and Psychosocial Factors in Eastern Europe) examined in 2019-20 were included to the analysis. Trained nurses interviewed respondents in their homes. Loneliness was assessed using 3-item UCLA scale (range: 3-9, cuf-off≥ 6 points). Socioeconomic data, self-rated health (SRH) and the history of 18 diseases diagnosed by the doctor was assessed using standardized questionnaire. Multivariable logistic regression was used; odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals are presented (OR (95%CI)). There were 461 participants (48% males) of mean age 72 years (SD = 6.3). In 34 participants (7%) UCLA score was 6 or more. The majority (63%) of respondents were married or cohabiting. Nearly 90% declared having children. After adjustment for marital status and having children, poor distance vision 3.84 (1.31-6.12), hearing problems 2.20 (1.07-4.53), acute back pain syndrome 2.21 (1.06-4.59) and cancer 2.36 (1.03-5.41) were determinants of loneliness. Further adjustment for age weakened the association with distance vision 2.74 (1.26-5.94) and waved the relationship with hearing problems 2.06 (0.99-4.29). The estimates for remaining health conditions remained almost unchanged. The strongest predictor of loneliness was SRH. After adjustment for age, marital status, having children and objective burden of chronic diseases, compared to good SRH, participants with moderate and poor SRH were more likely to report loneliness by over 3 and 6 times: 3.41 (1.29-9.05) and 6.60 (2.16-20.18), respectively. The perception of poor health and diagnosis of cancer strongly determined loneliness in older people, but other important predictors of loneliness were conditions that objectively hinder maintaining social contacts.

Key messages
• In older people health condition is related to the feeling of being alone, and the strongest objective health determinant of loneliness was diagnosis of cancer.
• Independently of objective burden of chronic diseases, self-rated health was a significant predictor of loneliness in older urban residents.
Narrowing socioeconomic inequalities in coronary heart disease: insight from Mendelian randomization
Authors: Xu X , Fu J , Wu F , Xu W 
Published: October 2024

Abstract

Background
Socioeconomic inequalities in coronary heart disease (CHD) represent a pressing global public health concern. However, which dimensions of socioeconomic status (SES) affect CHD and the potential modifiable mediators remain elusive.

Methods
We performed two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses based on summary data from large-scale genome-wide association studies in populations of European ancestry. Specifically, by applying bidirectional univariable MR (UVMR) and multivariable MR (MVMR), we investigated the causal relationships of education, occupation, income, Townsend deprivation index (TDI) with CHD and the independent effects of these SES indicators. We further employed a two-step MR to comprehensively profile the mediating effects of 23 behavioral, 3 psychological and 5 biological factors in the relationships.

Results
An independent causal association was observed between genetically predicated education and CHD, with a 30% lower risk of CHD (OR: 0.70; 95% CI: 0.53-0.93) for each 4.2-year of schooling. Each one-s.d. higher household income was causally, but not independently, associated with a 39% lower risk of CHD (OR: 0.61; 95% CI: 0.49-0.77). No significant causal association was suggested for occupation and TDI with CHD, and no reverse causal effect was observed for CHD on the SES indicators. Of 31 candidate mediators, nine factors mediated the effect of education on CHD significantly, with an individual mediation proportion of 33.5% for smoking, 29.2% for sedentary behaviour, 14.4% for blood lipids, 13.4% for BMI, 11.7% for systolic blood pressure, 9.5% for diastolic blood pressure, 7.8% for well-being spectrum, 6.4% for depression and 2.8% for blood glucose.

Conclusions
This study highlights that education was the primary SES indicator affecting CHD with considerable mediation by a number of modifiable risk factors. These findings inform policies to mitigate disparities of CHD risk attributable to socioeconomic inequalities.

Key messages
• Education can be prioritized over other common SES indicators as an essential strategy to reduce the burden of CHD.
• Interventions for narrowing socioeconomic inequalities in CHD could focus on more easily modifiable mediating factors.
Excess all-cause mortality in 21 countries during 2022: COVID-19 impact by C-MOR project
Authors: Pallari C T , Achilleos S , Quattrocchi A , Bennett C M , Ambrosio G , Polemitis A , Charalambous A , Demetriou C A 
Published: October 2024

Abstract

National published COVID-19 mortality estimates do not fully encompass the extent of the pandemic’s impact on mortality. To address this challenge, calculating excess all-cause mortality at the national level is important. Our focus was on understanding total weekly excess mortality for 2022, by analysing mortality data across 2020-2022, from 21 countries participating in the international consortium (C-MOR), which provided data for examination. Excess mortality was calculated by comparing the weekly 2022 age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 population against a baseline mortality, estimated using historical data from 2015-2019. Excess cumulative mortality for 2022 was found in all 21 countries. The excess mortality for the total population varied between 8.6 and 116.2, with the minimum excess belonging to Peru and the maximum to Georgia. Australia, Austria, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Georgia, Greece, Israel, and Norway showed a higher excess in 2022 than in 2020, while Australia, Austria, Cyprus, Denmark, Israel, Italy, Norway, Spain, and Sweden also showed a higher excess in 2022 than in 2021. Mauritius showed a significant excess mortality for the first time in 2022. For all countries, but Australia, the % of COVID-19 deaths out of all deaths decreased in 2022 compared to 2021. Contrary to the ‘harvesting effect’, which would expect a decline in mortality rates post-pandemic, our results underscore a sustained excess mortality throughout 2022. The 2022 excess deaths are mainly non-COVID-related, stemming from broader pandemic impacts on healthcare systems and other factors. Conversely, in Australia, international boarders reopened in 2022, resulting in the first community-wide transmission and a substantial rise in excess deaths. Our study reveals nuanced excess mortality dynamics post-vaccination, providing crucial insights for policymakers and stressing the necessity of continued vigilance and adaptive strategies against COVID-19’s diverse impacts.

Key messages
• All countries investigated experienced continued all-cause excess mortality during 2022, compared to pre-pandemic years. For most, excess mortality in 2022 was higher than in 2021 and 2020.
• For all countries, except Australia, the contribution of COVID-19 deaths to the mortality estimates in 2022 is decreased, highlighting the impact of indirect pandemic related effects on mortality.
Epidemiology of Dementia in the Campania Region (Italy): A 2015-2020 population-based study
Authors: Affinito G , Triassi M , Brescia Morra V , Palladino R , Salvatore E , Moccia M 
Published: October 2024

Abstract

As the global population ages, dementia poses a significant health challenge, ranking seventh among leading causes of death worldwide. Considering the high societal and financial burden of dementia, our study aims to provide estimates of prevalence and incidence for any dementia and Alzheimer’s dementia (AD) in the Campania Region (South Italy). It is Population-based study, using routinely collected healthcare data of individuals living in the Campania Region (South Italy) from 2015 to 2020. We included individuals aged ≥65 years who had at least one administrative record for dementia and/or AD. Prevalence rates adjusted for age and sex used 2020 European population as reference. To estimate incidence, we tested three possible algorithms, which differed for the duration of the time interval between study baseline (Jan 1, 2015) and index date (first record for dementia and/or AD in administrative databases). We employed a clinical database for the validation of our algorithms towards neuropsychological test results. Among individuals, 80,392 had dementia, of which 35,748 had AD. The age- and sex-standardized prevalence rates per 1,000 individuals for any dementia and AD were 77.64 (95%CI=77.57; 77.68) and 34.05 (95%CI=34.01; 34.09), respectively. There were 82.10 incident cases of any dementia per 100,000 per year (0.79 sensitivity and 0.62 specificity), and 59.89 incident cases of AD per 100,000 per year (0.80 sensitivity and 0.59 specificity). The capture-recapture method showed low number of undetected cases (1.7% for any dementia and 3.0% for AD). Our algorithms showed acceptable performance with AUC ranging from 0.59 to 0.72, and double likelihood ratio of correctly identifying individuals above and below MMSE standard cut-offs (24 and 26). Our algorithm, integrating administrative and clinical data, holds potential for assessing dementia’s epidemiological burden, identifying risk factors, planning healthcare access, and developing prevention strategies.

Key messages
• Providing comprehensive estimates of dementia burden aids public health planning and resource allocation.
• Integrated administrative and clinical data provide robust tools for epidemiological analysis and preventive strategies.
SINAVE’s quality: completeness for Meningococcal Disease – Northern Portugal, 2020-2022
Authors: Rodrigues A , Mouta F , Vieira M , Vidal-Castro J , Mendes A , Cruz-Alves G 
Published: October 2024

Abstract

Due to Meningococcal’s Disease (MD) severity and impact in public health, in Portugal it is mandatory to notify the suspicious cases to implement effective control measures. MD cases are notified in the National Surveillance System (SINAVE), which triggers epidemiological investigation, risk assessment and community intervention. The quality of SINAVE is defined by various attributes, being their evaluation crucial to improve and guarantee quality standards. Our goal is to evaluate the external and internal completeness of SINAVE for MD in northern Portugal from 2020 to 2022. We have conducted a cross-sectional study, using MD cases from 2020 to 2022. External Completeness was estimated using a two-source capture-recapture method, with data from SINAVE and Diagnostic-Related Group (DRG) cases. Hospital readmissions’, duplicates and cases from other regions were excluded. Internal completeness of SINAVE was accessed for each case and for each non-mandatory variable. For external completeness (EC) analysis, 21 of the 23 DRG cases were eligible for matching. Out of 31 SINAVE confirmed cases, 20 were eligible for matching. EC of SINAVE was 66,7%. For internal completeness (IC) analysis, we excluded 7 cases that did not meet the criteria for inclusion. The mean IC was 73,5% (min 38,5%, max 85,7%) when analysing by case. When assessing each of the 30 non-mandatory variables of the reports, 7 (23,3%) had an IC of 100% and 13 (43,3%) had an IC of 0%, the mean value was 49,7%. SINAVE assessment, as a routine, is crucial to identify the need for improvement. Completeness is fundamental to ensure an effective public health response. Our results confirm under-reporting and incomplete report of MD. There is a need to strengthen the improvement of data quality of SINAVE. Future studies may be important to estimate true incidence of MD and compare the results for other diseases in order to improve public health actions.

Key messages
• Meningococcal disease requires timely public health intervention.
• valuation of the surveillance system is crucial, with completeness playing an important role for data quality and prompt response.
Molecular surveillance of A. baumannii in intensive care units: exploration of transmission chains
Authors: Ceparano M , Capitani V , Rondòn S , Migliara G , Baccolini V , Marzuillo C , Villari P 
Published: October 2024

Abstract

Background
Multidrug-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (MDR-Ab) is one of the main causes of healthcare associated infections (HAIs). During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic there was an increase in MDR-Ab infections, especially in intensive care units (ICUs). This study aimed to assess the potential spread or emergence of specific clusters of MDR-Ab across four different ICUs at the Umberto I teaching hospital of Rome.

Methods
From January 2020 to January 2022 microbiological surveillance was conducted in four ICUs: two dedicated to COVID-19 patients (ICU-1C, ICU-2C) and two to non-COVID-19 patients (ICU-1R, ICU-2R). The genetic relatedness between A. baumannii isolates was assessed using pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). Illumina whole genome sequencing was conducted on 26 representative isolates.

Results
In total, 178 A. baumannii isolates were obtained from 129 COVID-19 patients and 49 non-COVID-19 patients. The isolates were classified into 17 PFGE pulsotypes, being two major (A, B) and five intermediate (C, D, E, H, Q). Clone A was present in all ICUs, while Clone B was present only in ICU-1C and ICU-2R. Overall, 117 isolates belonged to clone A and exhibited a MDR phenotype; all of them were placed within the international clonal lineage II. All isolates showed carbapenems resistance primarily attributed to the presence of the blaOXA-23 gene, while aminoglycosides resistance observed in almost all isolates was attributed to the presence of the armA gene. Small outbreaks involving intermediate pulsotypes were detected between ICU-1R and ICU-2R, ICU-1C and ICU-2R, ICU-1C and ICU-2C, ICU-1C and ICU-1R.

Conclusions
The observed outbreaks could be attributed to a decline in attention to normal care practices for the prevention of HAIs during the COVID-19 pandemic, favouring the spread of MDR-Ab. Therefore, it is recommended the strengthen of control measures and the implementation of long-term strategies targeting MDR microorganisms in the ICUs.

Key messages
• Acinetobacter baumannii was frequently found infecting patients across four different ICUs at the Umberto I teaching hospital of Rome.
• Acinetobacter baumanni outbreaks and multidrug resistance were observed. Therefore, the implementation of long-term strategies targeting MDR microorganisms in the ICUs is highly recommended.
Factors associated with actinic keratoses in people with albinism in the Albivoire program
Authors: Coulibaly F D , Dassi Tchoupa Revegue M H , Amani KLWG , Lauressergues E , Lenaud S , Garette B , Przybylsky C , Kouamé K 
Published: October 2024

Abstract

Background
People with albinism (PWA) face health inequalities partly due to barriers in accessing health care, consequently delaying the diagnosis of skin precancerous and cancerous lesions. Actinic keratoses (AK), are common precancerous lesions, indicating a high risk of skin cancer. Given the scarcity of research on skin cancer prevention among PWA in Africa, this study aimed to determine the prevalence and factors associated with AK in PWA followed in the Albivoire program.

Methods
This cross-sectional analytical study was conducted within the ongoing Albivoire program in Ivory Cost. Initiated in Ivory Coast in 2021, Albivoire is the largest comprehensive preventive and care initiative with and for PWA, offering medical consultation campaigns in dermatology, ophthalmology, and psychology. Dermatological records of consenting patients were analyzed. The prevalence (95%CI) of AK was estimated, and the associated factors assessed using logistic model.

Results
To date, a total of 1978 PWA received care across four regions (Abidjan, Bouaké, Korhogo and Man). Available data from 475 PWA were analyzed, among whom 247 (52%) were women. The median age was 14 years (interquartile range [IQR]: 7-25). Of these, 181 individuals (38.1%, 95% CI [33.7 - 42.6]) presented with actinic keratoses (AK). The median age of PWA with AK was 22 years (vs 11 years for without AK (p &lt; 0.001). Among PWA with AK, 87.8% were daily exposed to sun (vs 12.2% for those exposed occasionally, p = 0.026). In the multivariate analysis, factors significantly associated with AK included age 22 years or older (vs age &lt; 22 years, aOR=4.83, p &lt; 0.001), the presence of ephelides (vs absence; aOR=2.08, p = 0.003) and presence of xerosis (vs absence aOR=4.88, p &lt; 0.001).

Conclusions
This study highlights the high prevalence of AK in PWA in Ivory Cost, and identifies specific modifiable associated factors which should be targeted in global health strategies to prevent skin cancer among this vulnerable population.

Key messages
• Prevalence of skin precancerous lesions (actinic keratoses) in people with albinism in Ivory Cost is high (38%) and associated with modifiable risk factors.
• Tailored public health interventions needed to prevent skin cancers in vulnerable populations, targeting lesions like xerosis, ephelides, and actinic keratoses through skin protection.
Comparing statistical forecasting methods for modelling respiratory virus healthcare demand
Authors: Earl R , Baguelin M , Van Leeuwen E , Lopez-Bernal J , Ferguson N 
Published: October 2024

Abstract

Background
Emergency departments in the United Kingdom are under sustained pressure with rising demand for healthcare, gradually decreasing the functionality of the NHS. Forecasts can aid management in the allocation of appropriate healthcare supplies and staffing needs in advance of an expected surge, as well as allow stakeholders to assess most likely outcomes and potential worst-case scenarios. This is especially valuable during the seasonal waves of respiratory infections. Respiratory viruses are usually concentrated in a 6-8 week seasonal surge during the winter period, creating large pressure on the health system. Current forecast models’ performance depreciates significantly after 1 week. This analysis will forecast 6 weeks of respiratory health admissions, comparing traditional and newly emerging forecasting methods.

Methods
Using 20 years of English hospital admissions data, we evaluated both within season training models (2-20 weeks) and longer term seasonal models (1-10 years), to forecast 6 weeks of hospital admissions. Respiratory admissions were defined according to ARI/ILI ICD10 codes assigned in hospital, stratified by age and region. Models were iteratively constructed, trained and probabilistic forecasts were evaluated across the respiratory season of September to April using Weighted Interval Score. Averages of each model across iterations were generated for comparison.

Results
For non-seasonal models, shorter model training lengths created better forecast models for 6 weeks. For seasonal models, optimal training length varied across model complexity. Simple models performed best at forecasting 1 week, however performance deteriorated the most as the forecast window increased. Overall, the Prophet model performed best on average at forecasting 6 weeks across all scenarios.

Conclusions
Applying our framework for optimal model selection in forecasting analysis will help to inform better practice for future health demand modelling.

Key messages
• This analysis will inform better practice for future health demand forecasting 6 weeks in advance, allowing for preparation of resources for seasonal surges in healthcare demand.
• This analysis suggests using models with modest levels of increased complexity over simpler models could significantly improve forecast performance in the short-medium term.