bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Joint, Marginal, and Conditional Probability
Authors: Donovan Therese M. , Mickey Ruth M. 
Published: July 2019

Abstract
This chapter introduces additional terms and concepts used in the study of probability, including Venn diagrams, independent events, and dependent events. The chapter focuses on two characteristics observed at the same time. In the example given in the chapter, the characteristics are eye dominance (i.e., left eye dominance or right eye dominance) and the presence or absence of “Morton’s toe” (Morton’s toe is a large second metatarsal which is longer than that the first metatarsal, or big toe; less than 20% of the human population has this condition). The chapter then analyses the distribution of these characteristics, both separately and simultaneously. In doing so, the chapter introduce the important concepts of joint probability, marginal probability, and conditional probability.
The Portrait Problem: Bayesian Inference with Joint Likelihood
Authors: Donovan Therese M. , Mickey Ruth M. 
Published: July 2019

Abstract
Chapter 7 discusses the “Portrait Problem,” which concerns the dispute about whether a portrait frequently associated with Thomas Bayes (and used, in fact, as the cover of this book!) is actually a picture of him. In doing so, the chapter highlights the fact that multiple pieces of information can be used in a Bayesian analysis. A key concept in this chapter is that multiple sources of data can be combined in a Bayesian inference framework. The main take-home point is that Bayesian analysis can be very, very flexible. A Bayesian analysis is possible as long as the likelihood of observing the data under each hypothesis can be computed. The chapter also discusses the concepts of joint likelihood and independence.
The Survivor Problem: Simple Linear Regression with MCMC
Authors: Donovan Therese M. , Mickey Ruth M. 
Published: July 2019

Abstract
While one of the most common uses of Bayes’ Theorem is in the statistical analysis of a dataset (i.e., statistical modeling), this chapter examines another application of Gibbs sampling: parameter estimation for simple linear regression. In the “Survivor Problem,” the chapter considers the relationship between how many days a contestant lasts in a reality-show competition as a function of how many years of formal education they have. This chapter is a bit more complicated than the previous chapter because it involves estimation of the joint posterior distribution of three parameters. As in earlier chapters, the estimation process is described in detail on a step-by-step basis. Finally, the posterior predictive distribution is estimated and discussed. By the end of the chapter, the reader will have a firm understanding of the following concepts: linear equation, sums of squares, posterior predictive distribution, and linear regression with Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Gibbs sampling.
The Survivor Problem Continued: Introduction to Bayesian Model Selection
Authors: Donovan Therese M. , Mickey Ruth M. 
Published: July 2019

Abstract
This chapter provides a very brief introduction to Bayesian model selection. The “Survivor Problem” is expanded in this chapter, where the focus is now on comparing two models that predict how long a contestant will last in a game of Survivor: one model uses years of formal education as a predictor, and a second model uses grit as a predictor. Gibbs sampling is used for parameter estimation. Deviance Information Criterion (commonly abbreviated as DIC) is used as a guide for model selection. Details of how this measure is computed are described. The chapter also discusses model assessment (model fit) and Occam’s razor.
The Once-ler Problem: Introduction to Decision Trees
Authors: Donovan Therese M. , Mickey Ruth M. 
Published: July 2019

Abstract
In the “Once-ler Problem,” the decision tree is introduced as a very useful technique that can be used to answer a variety of questions and assist in making decisions. This chapter builds on the “Lorax Problem” introduced in Chapter 19, where Bayesian networks were introduced. A decision tree is a graphical representation of the alternatives in a decision. It is closely related to Bayesian networks except that the decision problem takes the shape of a tree instead. The tree itself consists of decision nodes, chance nodes, and end nodes, which provide an outcome. In a decision tree, probabilities associated with chance nodes are conditional probabilities, which Bayes’ Theorem can be used to estimate or update. The calculation of expected values (or expected utility) of competing alternative decisions is provided on a step-by-step basis with an example from The Lorax.
Reason without Reasons For
Authors: Titelbaum Michael G. 
Published: July 2019

Abstract
Metaethicists have recently devoted a great deal of attention to questions about when a fact counts as a reason for or against a particular conclusion, and how such reasons interact. Chapter 9 asks a broader question: When a set of facts counts in favor of some conclusion, is that always because at least one of those facts is a reason for that conclusion? Examples are offered in which a set supports a conclusion without any fact in that set’s being a reason for. The chapter then assesses the significance of such examples for philosophical methodology, the ‘reasons-first’ program, and metanormative realism.
Trajectories of Development and the Global Clothing Industry
Authors: Nattrass Nicoli , Seekings Jeremy 
Published: July 2019

AbstractChapter 4 provides a history and analysis of development trajectories in the global clothing industry. Trade liberalization (specifically the end of import quotas from January 2005) and the rise of global value chains have changed the nature of the global economy since Lewis’s time. We use UNIDO data on remuneration, output, and employment to identify post-2004 national development trajectories showing that upgrading trajectories can be pro-labour (a rising wage share of value-added) or pro-capital (a rising profit share). Pro-labour trajectories can deliver rising average wages and employment (e.g. India and China) or higher average wages for fewer workers (e.g. Sri Lanka). Pro-capital trajectories can also deliver higher average wages and employment growth (e.g. Vietnam) or rising wages for fewer workers (e.g. South Africa). Downgrading trajectories are typically associated with falling average wages but can be associated with rising average wages (as in Turkey). The desirability of a particular development trajectory depends on the economic context, especially labour market conditions.
‘Sweet and Hot’
Authors: Burrows George 
Published: July 2019

Abstract
This chapter explores the earliest recordings of Andy Kirk and His Clouds of Joy that were made during the period 1929–1931. The chapter shows how Kirk inherited the Clouds of Joy from the Texan trumpeter Terrence ‘T.’ Holder and how he worked hard to develop the band to become a versatile and appealing ensemble that played music suited to the tastes of white audiences. When they came to record, however, the Clouds of Joy did not use much of the repertoire that they played for white social dancers in the Southwestern Territories but they offered hotter styled jazz that better fitted racist expectations of what a black band should sound like. Thus, the chapter argues that Kirk’s band effectively donned a stylistic mask of black-sounding jazz that was at odds with the dance-band character that can also be heard in their first records. Recording thereby engaged them in a musical form of masked performance that played with and on prevailing racist stereotypes of blackness and whiteness in jazz.
‘Walkin’ and Swingin’’
Authors: Burrows George 
Published: July 2019

Abstract
This chapter focuses on the hot-swing numbers that the Clouds of Joy recorded in the period between March 1936 and July 1941. It shows that despite evident qualities of the hot-jazz styles of New York and Kansas City, the swing records of Kirk’s band display a comparatively restrained but elegant character. Unlike other black swing bands, the Clouds of Joy do not impress with rhythmic drive, unusual sonorities, or sheer volume. Their swing style is more subtle, unobtrusive, and refined. So, this chapter asks, how can we account for the distinctively restrained-but-elegant quality in the swing recordings of the Clouds of Joy? This central question is addressed with reference to social dancing, but it is as much about race as style: Kirk and his band continued to develop a black-jazz style that ensured their music appealed to Decca’s race-records market while also Signifyin(g) stereotypes of blackness associated with swing music in a subversive way.
‘Until the Real Thing Comes Along’
Authors: Burrows George 
Published: July 2019

Abstract
This chapter explores the recordings of Kirk’s band from ‘Until the Real Thing Comes Along’, a ‘special’ ballad that Kirk convinced Decca to record in 1936, to the disbanding of the Clouds of Joy in 1949. It primarily addresses the band’s commercial successes with vocal records, which increasingly dominated their Decca releases after 1936. The chapter shows how the popular vocals speak (or sing) loudest of the position and actions of a black band operating within a racist music industry and society. By considering the sweet-styled vocals relative to the band’s rapidly diminishing hot jazz output, this chapter challenges the enduring critical notion that Kirk’s band sold out on black-jazz authenticity with their turn to popular vocal recordings. Instead, it suggests how they found new ways to Signify on their situation within the racist culture in which they operated.
Using community-based methods to create a geospatial asset map of physical activity spaces in Pasadena, TX
Authors: Stasi Selina , Spengler John Otto , Maddock Jay , Mckyer Lisako , Clark Heather 
Published: July 2019

Abstract
Sharing of physical activity spaces is supported by the American Heart Association and other leading public health authorities as one strategy to increase access to physical activity. The purpose of this study was to identify facilities within Pasadena, TX, that currently provide opportunities for active recreation, sport, and other forms of physical activity and analyze community access to these spaces from a geospatial perspective. Geospatial analysis was used to identify physical activity spaces and issues relevant to access. Using a community-based approach, the research team worked with partners to create a list of individuals responsible for each of the physical activity spaces. These “facility administrators” were contacted by email and then phone for a total of four attempts. Respondents were asked to complete an online shared use survey. An asset map was created from both local geospatial data (Pasadena, TX) and data from a facility access and shared use survey. Of the 39 facility administrators, 23 responded to the survey and consisted of the park director, school principals, lead pastors and clergy, and business owners. A total of 53 facilities were identified within the priority zip codes, including 30 parks, 25 schools, 9 faith-based organizations, and 4 others (a business, a nonprofit health care center, and two community-based organizations). Overall, there were 131 total amenities, and playgrounds, outdoor basketball courts, and ball fields were the most common types. Some facilities had multiple amenities at their location, including many of the parks and schools. Additionally, respondents noted other types of amenities where activity took place such as parking lots, grassy areas, classrooms, and other indoor areas. Many of the amenities, 102, were open to the general public and 28 were found to be in good condition. Findings suggest that there is inadequate access to physical activity spaces in this underserved community. There is a need for additional play spaces in Northern Pasadena and for future research bridging community health and geospatial mapping.
INTERNAL LIMITING MEMBRANE PEELING VERSUS NONPEELING TO PREVENT EPIRETINAL MEMBRANE DEVELOPMENT IN PRIMARY RHEGMATOGENOUS RETINAL DETACHMENT
Authors: Arias Luis , Padrón-Pérez Noel , Flores-Moreno Ignacio , Giralt Lena , Cobos Estefanía , Lorenzo Daniel , García-Bru Pere , Dias Bruno , Caminal Josep M. 
Published: July 2019

Purpose:
To determine whether internal limiting membrane peeling in primary rhegmatogenous retinal detachment prevents epiretinal membrane (ERM) development. Secondarily, we propose a classification system for postoperative ERMs.

Methods:
Retrospective, interventional, comparative case series. Consecutive eyes with primary rhegmatogenous retinal detachment (n = 140) treated by a single surgeon. The presence of postoperative ERMs was assessed with swept-source optical coherence tomography.

Results:
An ERM was detected in 26 eyes (46.4%) in the nonpeeling group and in one eye (1.8%) in the internal limiting membrane peeling group (P ≤ 0.001). The median visual acuity significantly improved in both groups (P ≤ 0.001). Inner retinal dimples were observed in 41.1% of eyes in the internal limiting membrane peeling group versus 0% in the nonpeeling group (P ≤ 0.001), and they were not correlated with visual acuity (r = 0.011; P = 0.941). Based on swept-source optical coherence tomography findings, we identified three different types of ERMs: 7 (26.9%) were classified as Type 1, 12 (46.1%) as Type 2, and 7 (26.9%) as Type 3. Superficial retinal plexus deformations observed on optical coherence tomography angiography and en face images were detected in 100% of Type 3 ERMs, 41.6% of Type 2, and 0% of Type 1 (χ2 = 14.3; P = 0.001). Interestingly, all of the patients who presented these alterations also had metamorphopsia.

Conclusion:
Internal limiting membrane peeling in primary rhegmatogenous retinal detachment seems to prevent postoperative ERM development. Swept-source optical coherence tomography analysis is helpful to define and classify different types of ERMs and to establish the surgical indication for their removal.
Trends in Regionalization of Care and Mortality For Patients Treated With Radical Cystectomy
Authors: Waingankar Nikhil , Mallin Katherine , Egleston Brian L. , Winchester David P. , Uzzo Robert G. , Kutikov Alexander , Smaldone Marc C. 
Published: July 2019

Background:
Regionalization to higher volume centers has been proposed as a mechanism to improve short-term outcomes following complex surgery.

Objective:
The objective of this study was to assess trends in regionalization and mortality for patients undergoing radical cystectomy (RC).

Research Design:
An observational study of patients receiving RC in the United States from 2004 to 2013.

Subjects:
Data for patients receiving RC were extracted from the National Cancer Database.

Measures:
The primary exposure was hospital volume; low-volume hospitals (LVH) included those with <5 RC/year and high-volume hospitals (HVH) were those with ≥30 RC/year. Trends in the volume were assessed, as were 30- and 90-day mortality. Cochrane-Armitage tests were performed for volume, and propensity score-weighted proportional hazard regression was used to assess mortality.

Results:
A total of 47,028 RC were performed in 1162 hospitals from 2004 to 2013. The proportion of RC at LVH declined from 29% to 17% (P<0.01), whereas that of HVH increased from 16% to 33% (P<0.01). Unadjusted 30- (P=0.02) and 90-day (P<0.001) mortality decreased, and the absolute decrease was greatest at LVH (4.8% vs. 2.6%, P=0.03), whereas rates for HVH remained stable (1.9% vs. 1.4%, P=0.34). Following risk-adjustment, relative to treatment at HVH, treatment at LVH was associated with increased 30-day (hazard ratio: 1.66, 95% CI: 1.53–1.80) and 90-day mortality (hazard ratio: 1.37, 95% confidence interval: 1.30–1.44).

Conclusions:
Regionalization of RC to HVH was observed from 2004 to 2013. Treatment at LVH was associated with 66% and 33% relative increases in hazard of death at 30 and 90 days, respectively. These findings support the selective referral of complex cases to higher volume centers.
Lactic Acidosis and the Role of Sodium Bicarbonate: A Narrative Opinion
Authors: Rudnick Mona R. , Blair Gregory J. , Kuschner Ware G. , Barr Juliana 
Published: July 2019

ABSTRACT
Lactic acidosis occurs commonly and can be a marker of significant physiologic derangements. However what an elevated lactate level and acidemia connotes and what should be done about it is subject to inconsistent interpretations. This review examines the varied etiologies of lactic acidosis, the physiologic consequences, and the known effects of its treatment with sodium bicarbonate. Lactic acidosis is often assumed to be a marker of hypoperfusion, but it can also result from medications, organ dysfunction, and sepsis even in the absence of malperfusion. Acidemia causes deleterious effects in almost every organ system, but it can also have positive effects, increasing localized blood flow and oxygen delivery, as well as providing protection against hypoxic cellular injury. The use of sodium bicarbonate to correct severe acidemia may be tempting to clinicians, but previous studies have failed to show improved patient outcomes following bicarbonate administration. Bicarbonate use is known to decrease vasomotor tone, decrease myocardial contractility, and induce intracellular acidosis. This suggests that mild to moderate acidemia does not require correction. Most recently, a randomized control trial found a survival benefit in a subgroup of critically ill patients with serum pH levels <7.2 with concomitant acute kidney injury. There is no known benefit of correcting serum pH levels ≥ 7.2, and sparse evidence supports bicarbonate use <7.2. If administered, bicarbonate is best given as a slow IV infusion in the setting of adequate ventilation and calcium replacement to mitigate its untoward effects.
Periodic Testing and Estimation of STD-HIV Association
Authors: Mâsse B.R. , Guibord P. , Boily M.-C. , Alary M. 
Published: July 2019

AbstractBackgroundThe validity of measures used in follow-up studies to estimate the magnitude of the HIV-STD association will be the focus of this paper. A recent simulation study by Boilyet al[1] based on a model of HIV and STD transmission showed that the relative risk (RR), estimated by the hazard rate ratio (HRR) obtained by the Cox model had poor validity, either in absence or in presence of a real association between HIV and STD. TheHRRtends to underestimate the true magnitude of a non-null association. These results were obtained from simulated follow-up studies where HIV was periodicaly tested every three months and every month for the STD.Aims and MethodsThis paper extends the above results by investigating the impact of using different periodic testing intervals on the validity ofHRRestimates. Issues regarding the definition of exposure to STDs in this context are explored. A stochastic model for the transmission of HIV and other STDs is used to simulate follow-up studies with different periodic testing intervals.HRRestimates obtained with the Cox model with a time-dependent STD exposure covariate are compared to the true magnitude of the HIV-STD association. In addition, real data are reanalysed using the STD exposure definition described in this paper. The data from Lagaet al[2] are used for this purpose.Results(1) Simulated data: independently of the magnitude of the true association, we observed a greater reduction of the bias when increasing the frequency of HIV testing than that of the STD testing. (2) Real data: The STD exposure definition can create substantial differences in the estimation of the HIV-STD association. Lagaet al[2] have found aHRRof 2.5 (1.1 - 6.4) for the association between HIV and genital ulcer disease compared to an estimate of 3.5 (1.5 - 8.3) with our improved definition of exposure.ConclusionsResults on the simulated data have an important impact on the design of field studies. For instance when choosing between two designs; one where both HIV and STD are screened every 3 months versus one where HIV and STD are screened every 3 months and monthly, respectively. The latter design is more expensive and involves more complicated logistics. Furthermore, this increment in cost may not be justified considering the relatively small gain in terms of validity and variability.
Disruptive Mood Dysregulation Disorder: symptomatic and syndromic thresholds and diagnostic operationalization
Authors: Laporte Paola Paganella , Matijasevich Alicia , Munhoz Tiago N. , Santos Iná S. , Barros Aluísio J. D. , Pine Daniel Samuel , Rohde Luis Augusto , Leibenluft Ellen , Abrahão Salum Giovanni 
Published: July 2019

AbstractObjectiveThe aim of this study is to identify the most appropriate threshold for Disruptive Mood Dysregulation Disorder (DMDD) diagnosis and the impact of potential changes in diagnostic rules on prevalence levels in the community.MethodTrained psychologists evaluated 3,562 pre-adolescents/early adolescents from the 2004 Pelotas Birth Cohort with the Development and Well-Being Behavior Assessment (DAWBA). The clinical threshold was assessed in three stages: symptomatic, syndromic and clinical operationalization. The symptomatic threshold identified the response category in each DAWBA item which separates normative misbehavior from a clinical indicator. The syndromic threshold identified the number of irritable mood and outbursts needed to capture pre-adolescents/early adolescents with high symptom levels. Clinical operationalization compared the impact of AND/OR rules for combining irritable mood and outbursts on impairment and levels of psychopathology.ResultsAt the symptomatic threshold, most irritable mood items were normative in their lowest response categories and clinically significant in their highest response categories. For outbursts some indicated a symptom even when present at only a mild level, while others did not indicate symptoms at any level. At the syndromic level, a combination of 2 out of 7 irritable mood and 3 out of 8 outburst indicators accurately captured a cluster of individuals with high level of symptoms. Analysis combining irritable mood and outbursts delineated non-overlapping aspects of DMDD, providing support for the OR rule in clinical operationalization. The best DMDD criteria resulted in a prevalence of 3%.ConclusionResults provide information for initiatives aiming to provide data-driven and clinically oriented operationalized criteria for DMDD.