Abstract 2211: Patient level polygenic risk scores and continuous estrogen receptor expression in breast cancer
Authors: Shetty Anamay H. , Ali Raza , Blows Fiona , Caldas Carlos , Inard Nicholas , Benítez Javier , Chang-Claude Jenny , Chenevix-Trench Georgia , Couch Fergus , Cox Angela , Devilee Peter , Easton Douglas , Garcia-Closas Montserrat , Mannermaa Arto , Nevanlinna Heli , Schmidt Marjanka , Pharoah Paul 
Published: August 2018

Abstract
Introduction: Genome-wide association studies over the past 10 years have identified over 100 common variants associated with breast cancer risk. The association of these polymorphisms varies according to estrogen receptor status of the tumor, with some associated primarily with ER+ or ER- disease, or both subtypes. However, ER expression in breast cancer cells is continuous. The aim of this study was to establish whether the association between polygenic risk scores and ER expression in breast cancer is continuous in nature.
Methods: Data were taken from the international Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). Germline genotype data for 75 SNPs previously reported to be associated with breast cancer were available for 4,999 breast cancer cases for which ER expression data were also available. Automated ER expression on a continuous scale was measured using two image analysis algorithms: Astrogrid and Ariol. A third form of ER expression score, the manual Allred ordinal, was used. Genotype data were used to calculate polygenic risk scores using the equation:
PRS = ∑ βx
where β is the log-odds of the odds ratio (OR) of breast cancer associated with that single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), and x is the number of variant alleles at a SNP locus. Five different PRSs were calculated:
i) SNPs associated with both ER+ and ER- disease (PRS-A, n= 74)
ii) SNPs associated with ER+ disease at P&lt;0.01 (PRS-B, n= 65)
iii) SNPs associated with ER- disease at P&lt;0.01 (PRS-C, n= 43)
iv) SNPs associated with ER+ but not ER- disease (PRS-D, n= 30)
v) SNPs associated with ER- but not ER+ disease (PRS-E, n = 8)
The ER-specific weights for the PRS were taken from previous OR estimates. Linear regression models adjusted for study were used to test for a relationship between the five PRSs and ER expression measured on the Ariol, Astrogrid and Allred scales.
Results: There was a strong positive correlation found between PRS-B against Astrogrid (β=0.0176, P=4.06x10-4), a weak negative correlation found with PRS-C (β=-0.012, P=0.019) and a weak positive correlation for PRS-A (β=0.012, P=0.0144). PRS-D and E showed far stronger association with Astrogrid than PRS-B and C, respectively (β=0.0186 and -0.017, P=1.97x10-4 and 8.1x10-4). There was a qualitatively similar association when the PRSs were correlated with Ariol and Allred, apart from the stronger correlations with PRS-B (β=91.2 and 0.0853, P=5.52x10-4 and 1.33x10-3).
Conclusion: We have shown a robust association between PRS and ER expression in the directions we predicted. This suggests that the continuous variation in ER expression is biologically plausible and linked to genetic polymorphism. The weakening of association with PRS-A and the stronger associations with PRS-D and E show that having SNPs that are associated with both ER subtypes in the same PRS weakens significance, and suggests that subtype-specific PRSs may be improved on by using SNPs exclusive to the respective subtype.
Citation Format: Anamay H. Shetty, Raza Ali, Fiona Blows, Carlos Caldas, Nicholas Inard, Javier Benítez, Jenny Chang-Claude, Georgia Chenevix-Trench, Fergus Couch, Angela Cox, Peter Devilee, Douglas Easton, Montserrat Garcia-Closas, Arto Mannermaa, Heli Nevanlinna, Marjanka Schmidt, Paul Pharoah. Patient level polygenic risk scores and continuous estrogen receptor expression in breast cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2018; 2018 Apr 14-18; Chicago, IL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2018;78(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 2211.