bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Improving realised volatility forecast for emerging markets
Authors: Alfeus Mesias , Harvey Justin , Maphatsoe Phuthehang 
Published: December 2024

AbstractAccurate forecasting of realised volatility is essential for financial risk management and investment decision-making in emerging markets, taking the South African financial market as a benchmark. This study examines the predictive performance of four prominent models: HAR (Heterogeneous AutoRegressive), realised GARCH (Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity), Recurrent Conditional Heteroskedasticity (RECH), and the Rough Fractional Stochastic Volatility (RFSV) models. These models are specifically tailored to capture the complex dynamics and long-range dependence observed in financial time series. We illustrate the challenges and limitations of these models outside the context of established markets. Our empirical findings reveal unique strengths for each model. The HAR model excels in capturing long-term volatility patterns, while realised GARCH models effectively capture volatility clustering and persistence. RECH model showcases their ability to forecast Value-at-Risk, while the RFSV model successfully captures irregular and long-memory characteristics. We provide empirical evidence that the South African financial market is rough. Moreover, this study provides valuable insights into forecasting realised volatility in the South African market, and the findings can assist practitioners and investors in making informed decisions and developing robust risk management strategies.
An Advanced Spatial Approach Based on Multi-criteria Analysis and Geostatistical Simulation for a Comprehensive Geogenic Radon Hazard Index Mapping
Authors: Masoumi Iman , Maggio Sabrina , De Iaco Sandra 
Published: December 2024

AbstractRadon concentration originates mainly from geogenic factors, such as uranium content, permeability based on rock unit and tectonic features, as well as karst properties. In this paper, these layers are integrated through a joint spatial multi-criteria approach based on Analytical Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Gamma Operator techniques, as well as on the Receiver Operating Characteristic curves in order to compare output maps and classify them to construct a Geogenic Radon Hazard Index for Lecce Province in southeastern Italy. To this end, two main criteria and their sub-criteria are defined as contributing factors: geology (uranium content in bedrock, permeability rate in different lithotypes, and faults) and karst features (dolines, caves, and sinkholes). Furthermore, the spatial multi-criteria results, also confirmed by the indoor radon maps generated through Sequential Gaussian Simulations, show that the sites rich primarily in uranium content in bedrock, faults, and sinkholes can be identified as the most critical areas. Finally, the evaluation of the performance is completed through the Success Rate Curve, which demonstrates the efficiency of the Fuzzy Gamma Operator method and corroborates that this innovative spatial multi-criteria approach can support the production of reliable maps of high radon potential areas. This approach encourages the development of effective risk reduction strategies for future planning and targeted sampling in areas with limited indoor radon data.
The Peace Imperative for the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction
Authors: Peters Laura E. R. 
Published: December 2024

AbstractDisasters disproportionately affect conflict-affected regions, where approximately two billion people reside, posing significant challenges for disaster risk reduction (DRR). This reality has increasingly spurred calls for violent conflict to be included in the global DRR agenda. However, consideration of peace has been lacking, despite that challenges for peace can distinctly impact capacities to set, pursue, and achieve DRR objectives. This study investigated how the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 (SFDRR) engages with peace through a document analysis, revealing three key findings. First, the SFDRR does not mention “peace,” mirroring its lack of reference to conflict. Second, while peace-related terms appear throughout the SFDRR in themes related to partnership and all-of-society approaches, this engagement is superficial. Third, the SFDRR’s approach is fundamentally problematic for advancing peace due to its avoidance of the complex social and political dynamics inherent to disaster risk and its reduction. The SFDRR united United Nations Member States in its ambition to “leave no one behind,” but has taken approaches that smooth over diversity rather than strengthen pluralistic connections. A radical, integrated DRR-peacebuilding agenda must take conflict as the new starting point and carve new pathways toward peace including through disaster diplomacy and environmental peacebuilding. By embracing the ambiguity between war and peace and addressing the root causes of risk, societies can cultivate peaceful interactions and collectively advance safety. This study concludes with recommendations for a global DRR policy that not only implicitly relies on peace but actively contributes to peacebuilding in the world’s diverse and divided societies.
Association between DNA methylation predicted growth differentiation factor 15 and mortality: results from NHANES 1999–2002
Authors: Luo Honglian , Shen Yun 
Published: December 2024

Abstract
Background
Growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF15) is a crucial biomarker in various physiological and pathological processes. While elevated GDF15 levels are linked to increased mortality risk, the role of DNA methylation (DNAm)-predicted GDF15 in predicting mortality has not been extensively studied. The purpose of the study is to investigate the association between DNAm-predicted GDF15 levels and all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in a nationally representative cohort.

Methods
Data from NHANES 1999–2002 were analyzed. DNAm-predicted GDF15 levels were estimated using a regression model. Weighted multivariate Cox regressions were employed to assess the relationship between DNAm-predicted GDF15 and mortality outcomes. Restricted cubic splines were used to explore dose-response relationships, and subgroup analyses were conducted to enhance result reliability.

Results
Higher DNAm-predicted GDF15 levels were significantly associated with increased all-cause mortality risk (HR = 1.08, 95% CI: 1.02–1.15). Participants in the highest DNAm-predicted GDF15 tertile showed significantly higher all-cause mortality risk (HR = 1.56, 95% CI: 1.16–2.10) and a 2.52-fold increased risk of cardiovascular mortality (HR = 2.52, 95% CI: 1.22–5.19). Kaplan-Meier curves revealed decreasing survival probability with higher DNAm-predicted GDF15 tertiles. Restricted cubic spline analysis demonstrated a non-linear dose-response relationship between DNAm-predicted GDF15 levels and cardiovascular mortality. The positive correlation between DNAm-predicted GDF15 and mortality remained robust in most of subgroups.

Conclusions
DNAm-predicted GDF15 independently predicts all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. This association persists across multiple models and stratified subgroups, supporting GDF15’s value as a biomarker for mortality risk stratification. Future research should elucidate underlying biological mechanisms and evaluate GDF15’s clinical utility in guiding mortality risk reduction interventions.
Academics’ Weak(ening) Resistance to Generative AI: The Cause and Cost of Prestige?
Authors: Watermeyer Richard , Lanclos Donna , Phipps Lawrie , Shapiro Hanne , Guizzo Danielle , Knight Cathryn 
Published: December 2024

AbstractThe disruptive potential of generative AI (GenAI) tools to academic labour is potentially vast. Yet as we argue herein, such tools also represent a continuation of the inequities inherent to academia’s prestige economy and the intensified hierarchy and labour precarisation endemic to universities as prestige institutions. In a recent survey of n = 284 UK-based academics, reasons were put forward for avoiding GenAI tools. These responses surface concerns about automative technologies corrupting academic identity and inauthenticating scholarly practice; concerns that are salient to all who participate within and benefit from the work of scholarly communities. In discussion of these survey results, we explore ambivalence about whether GenAI tools expedite the acquisition or depletion of prestige demanded of academics, especially where GenAI tools are adopted to increase scholarly productivity. We also appraise whether, far from helping academics cope with a work climate of hyper-intensifcation, GenAI tools ultimately exacerbate their vulnerability, status-based peripheralisation, and self-estrangement.
Low-carbon cement development: modifying volcanic ash reactivity for portland cement replacement
Authors: Alsulami Nawaf , Chen Hung-Liang Roger 
Published: December 2024

AbstractVolcanic ash (VA) reactivity is typically low and requires activation or modification to expand its applicability. This study focuses on modifying the VA reactivity by introducing optimal mixing proportions of amorphous materials (AM) and by developing a reliable reactivity measurement technique based on the standard Ca(OH)2-reactivity test (CRT). CRT was used as a reference test to quantify the reactivity of four VAs. Optimal AM addition was used to increase the reaction rate and to take advantage of synergistic effects on the strength of mortars. Replacing VA with 15 wt.% silica fume (SF), 30 wt.% slag (SL), or 25 wt.% metakaolin (MK) to form modified-VA (MVA) significantly improved the strength and reactivity. The standard CRT was modified by utilizing a constant w/b ratio of 0.484 and by changing the curing regime where the ambient temperature was set to 43℃ for up to 91 days. This revised CRT is referred to as the “modified-Ca(OH)2-reactivity test” (MCRT). A relationship between the strength and the heat was used as a foundation to develop a classification that determines the level of reactivity of VA/MVA. The results indicate that three of the four VAs evaluated were found to be reactive. The synergistic actions within MVA mixtures significantly improved the reactivity at early ages. Results show that MVA mortar mix with 70% volcanic ash and 30% slag can achieve 25.6 MPa compressive strength at 91 days. By substituting 15% SF, 30% SL, or 25% MK for VA to form MVA, the mixes provide promising results for an alternative concrete mixture for future industrial applications.
Evaluating histone H3.1 as a biomarker for acute ischemic stroke: insights into NETs and stroke pathophysiology
Authors: Park Suji , Shim Jae-Ryong , Goh Ri-Young , Kim Dae-Hyun , Han Jin-Yeong 
Published: December 2024

AbstractThe diagnosis of acute ischemic stroke (AIS) can be challenging when neuroimaging findings are normal or equivocal. Neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs), particularly histone H3.1, have potential as biomarkers for AIS. This study evaluated NETs, specifically histone H3.1, as diagnostic biomarkers for AIS. This prospective study included 89 patients with AIS and 20 healthy controls. Plasma histone H3.1 levels were measured using the Nu.Q® H3.1 enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Seven cytokines were analyzed using a bead-based immunoassay. Statistical analyses were used to compare histone H3.1 levels between groups and evaluate correlations with clinical parameters and cytokines. Histone H3.1 levels were significantly higher in patients with AIS (271.05 ± 33.40 ng/mL) versus controls (95.33 ± 12.86 ng/mL, p < 0.001). Multivariable logistic regression identified H3.1 as an independent risk factor for AIS (p = 0.006), with an area under the curve of 0.907. Significant correlations were found between H3.1, interleukin-6 (0.290, p = 0.013) and vascular cell adhesion molecule 1 (0.297, p = 0.011). In conclusion, the NETs H3.1 ELISA test is a reliable new diagnostic option that supports the diagnosis of AIS.
Feller and ergodic properties of jump–move processes with applications to interacting particle systems
Authors: Lavancier Frédéric , Le Guével Ronan , Manent Emilien 
Published: December 2024

AbstractWe consider Markov processes that alternate continuous motions and jumps in a general locally compact Polish space. Starting from a mechanistic construction, a first contribution of this article is to provide conditions on the dynamics so that the associated transition kernel forms a Feller semigroup, and to deduce the corresponding infinitesimal generator. As a second contribution, we investigate the ergodic properties in the special case where the jumps consist of births and deaths, a situation observed in several applications including epidemiology, ecology, and microbiology. Based on a coupling argument, we obtain conditions for convergence to a stationary measure with a geometric rate of convergence. Throughout the article, we illustrate our results using general examples of systems of interacting particles in
$\mathbb{R}^d$
with births and deaths. We show that in some cases the stationary measure can be made explicit and corresponds to a Gibbs measure on a compact subset of
$\mathbb{R}^d$
. Our examples include in particular Gibbs measures associated to repulsive Lennard-Jones potentials and to Riesz potentials.
Using Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services care compare data to create hospital-acquired infection count thresholds: a SAS program and analysis
Authors: Pollock Benjamin D. , Ziegelbauer Lorelle L. 
Published: December 2024

AbstractUsing the Statistical Analysis System (SAS) program shared here, all US hospitals can calculate hospital-specific hospital-acquired infection threshold counts for achieving a pre-specified benchmarked Standardized Infection Ratio performance percentile.
Studying factual versus social cues as triggers of change in food behaviour
Authors: Zorell Carolin V. , Kim Ansung , Neuman Nicklas 
Published: December 2024

Abstract
Numerous public initiatives aim to influence individual food choices by informing about what is considered ‘healthy’, ‘climate-friendly’, and generally ‘sustainable’ food. However, research suggests that rather than public authorities, social influence is more likely to affect people’s behaviour. Using a randomised controlled trial, this study investigated if and how the two kinds of influences (factual versus social) could affect the real-life, self-reported intake of plant- and animal-based foods. In a four-month randomised controlled trial, a self-selected sample of adults living in Sweden (N = 237) tracked their daily food consumption several times per week using a tailored mobile phone app. Participants were randomised into one of three groups: two treatment groups receiving factual or social information about plant- and animal-based food consumption, or a control group receiving no information. Pre- and post-questionnaires provided additional background information about the participants. Participants’ food habits varied from week to week, and an explorative analysis pointed to a slight decrease in the consumption of animal-based food in the group that received social information. However, the longer-term patterns remained relatively constant in all groups, showing no substantial shift regardless of the kind of cues that the participants received. By investigating the roles of two common types of information about food and dietary change, the results contribute to discussions about how and by whom effective and efficient measures can be implemented to transform food habits. The results suggest there is limited potential for sustained and substantial behavioural changes through both social and factual information campaigns.
Investigating unusual Hα features towards the Scutum Supershell
Authors: Alsulami Rami , Einecke Sabrina , Rowell Gavin , McGee Padric , Filipović Miroslav D. , Seitenzahl Ivo Rolf , Stupar Milorad , Collins Tiffany Anne , Fukui Yasuo , Sano Hidetoshi 
Published: December 2024

Abstract
We investigate the unusual H

$\alpha$

features found towards the Scutum Supershell via recent arc-minute and arc-second resolution imaging. These multi-degree features resemble a long central spine ending in a bow-shock morphology. We performed a multi–wavelength study in [S II] optical, radio continuum, infrared continuum, Hi, CO, X-ray, and gamma-ray emissions. Interestingly, we found the Galactic worm GW 16.9−3.8 Hi feature appears within the Scutum Supershell, and likely influences the spine morphology. Furthermore, the rightmost edge of the bow-shock H

$\alpha$

emission overlaps with [S II] line emission, 4.85 GHz radio, and both 60 and 100

$\mu$

m infrared continuum emissions, suggesting some potential for excitation by shock heating. We estimated the photo-ionisation from O-type and B-type stars in the region (including those from the OB associations Ser OB1B, Ser OB2, and Sct OB3) and found that this mechanism could supply the excitation to account for the observed H

$\alpha$

luminosity of the spine and bow-shock of

$\sim$

1–2

$\times 10^{36}\,\mathrm{erg\,s}^{-1}$

(d/2.5 kpc)

$^2$

. Recent MHD simulations by Drozdov et al. (2022) demonstrate the potential for supernova events to drive outflow and bow-shock types of features of the same energetic nature and physical scale as the H

$\alpha$

emission we observe here. While this clearly requires many supernova events over time, we speculate that one contributing event could have come from the presumably energetic supernova (hypernova) birth of the magnetar tentatively identified in the X-ray binary LS 5039.
Handheld portable device for delivering capped silver nanoparticles for antimicrobial applications
Authors: Naveen Kumar , Bose Sandeep , Basheer Chanbasha , Zare Richard N. , Gnanamani Elumalai 
Published: December 2024

Abstract
We describe a simple, cost-effective, green method for producing capped silver nanoparticles (Ag NPs) using a handheld portable mesh nebulizer. The precursor solution containing a 1:1 mixture of silver nitrate (AgNO3) and ligand (glycerol or sodium alginate) was sprayed using the nebulizer. The Ag NPs were generated in the water microdroplets within a few milliseconds under ambient conditions without any external reducing agent or action of a radiation source. The synthesized nanoparticles were characterized by using high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HR-TEM), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), and X-ray diffraction analysis (XRD), which validated the formation of Ag NPs. The synthesized glycerate-capped silver nanoparticles (Ag-gly NPs) were used as a catalyst to show the oxidative coupling of aniline to form azobenzene products with a yield of up to 61%. Experiments conducted using Ag NPs produced in the droplets demonstrated more than 99% antibacterial activity when contacting Escherichia Coli. Our in-situ synthesis-cum-fabrication technique using a portable sprayer represents a viable alternative to the existing fiber or hydrogel-based antimicrobial wound healing.
The first mitogenome of the genus Amphalius (Siphonaptera: Ceratophyllidae) and its phylogenetic implications
Authors: Pu Ju , Lin Xiaoxia , Dong Wenge 
Published: December 2024

Abstract
Amphalius spirataenius belongs to Arthropoda, Insecta, Siphonaptera, Ceratophylloidea, Ceratophyllinae, Amphalius. Only 2 species from the subfamily Ceratophyllinae have been sequenced for mitogenomes to date. The genus Amphalius mitogenome research was still blank. The A. spirataenius mitogenome was determined, annotated and analysed for the first time in this study. The 14 825 bp long genome has the typical metazoan of 37 genes with insect ancestral genome arrangement pattern. There was no significant difference in codon usage of 13 protein-coding genes: UUA, UCU, GUU, ACU and GCU were the most frequently used codons. It was found that the reason for codon preference mainly contributed to natural selection base on PR2, ENC-plot and neutrality curve analysis. Evolutionary rate, conserved sites, variable sites and nucleotide diversity analysis indicated that nad6 of A. spirataenius had the fastest evolutionary rate, while cox1 had the slowest evolutionary rate. Phylogenetic trees were reconstructed based on 13 protein-coding genes and 2 rRNA genes datasets using Bayesian inference and maximum likelihood method. The phylogenetic tree supported that both Siphonaptera and Mecoptera were monophyletic, and were sister groups to each other. This study filled gap of the genus Amphalius mitogenome sequences and was of great significance for understanding evolution of the order Siphonaptera.
The efficacy of psychological treatments on body dysmorphic disorder: a meta-analysis and trial sequential analysis of randomized controlled trials
Authors: Liu Yinong , Lai Lizu , Wilhelm Sabine , Phillips Katharine A. , Guo Yunxiao , Greenberg Jennifer L. , Ren Zhihong 
Published: December 2024

AbstractThis meta-analysis and trial sequential analysis (TSA) of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on the psychological treatment of body dysmorphic disorder (BDD) was conducted to evaluate the intervention effects and robustness of the evidence. This study included 15 RCTs up until 15 June 2024, with 905 participants. Results showed significant improvements in BDD symptoms (g = −0.97), depression (g = −0.51), anxiety (g = −0.72), insight/delusion (g = −0.57), psychosocial functioning (g = 0.45), and quality of life (g = 0.44), with effects sustained from 1 to 6 months follow-up. RCTs with a waitlist/inactive control reported larger effect sizes for post-intervention BDD symptoms compared to those with a placebo/active control group. In addition, studies with low risk of bias demonstrate larger effect sizes for post-intervention psychosocial functioning compared to studies with some concerns. Notably, the presence of exposure and response prevention in the treatment, as well as the mode of delivery (face-to-face or digital), did not have a significant impact on the intervention outcomes. Females exhibited greater effect sizes in post-intervention BDD symptoms and psychosocial functioning than males. With increasing age, the effect size for insight/delusion symptoms diminished. Longer session duration was associated with larger effect sizes for BDD symptoms, depression at post-treatment, and depression at follow-up. TSA indicated robust evidence for depression at post-treatment and BDD symptoms, while the remaining outcome variables did not meet the desired level of evidence. In conclusion, this study underscores the effectiveness of psychological treatments in reducing BDD symptoms and improving related outcomes, highlighting the need for further research to confirm the impact of these therapies on other outcomes.