Workflow Helps Predict Casing Deformation During Hydraulic Fracturing in Shale Gas
Authors: Carpenter Chris 
Published: November 2024

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This article, written by JPT Technology Editor Chris Carpenter, contains highlights of paper URTeC 4043054, “Casing-Deformation-Risk Prediction With Numerical Simulation During Hydraulic Fracturing in Deep Shale Gas Reservoirs,” by Jianfa Wu, Xuewen Shi, and Qiyong Gou, PetroChina, et al. The paper has not been peer reviewed.

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In this study, a numerical simulation workflow was established based on comprehensive modeling of a time-lapse stress field, hydraulic fracturing simulation, natural fractures, and other weak interfaces to analyze casing-deformation mechanisms of shale gas horizontal wells during the multistage hydraulic fracturing process. The authors write that they aim to guide the prediction of, and provide mitigating solutions for, casing-deformation risks while improving stimulation efficiency.

Introduction
The burial depth of deep shale gas reservoirs in the southern Sichuan Basin is approximately 3500 to 4500 m. These have complex geological conditions with developed faults and fractures and high in-situ horizontal stresses. During multistage hydraulic fracturing operations in horizontal wells, establishing an effective prediction method for casing-deformation risks in these reservoirs is a challenge. An integrated workflow is proposed to evaluate and predict casing-deformation risks, effectively support hydraulic fracturing operations, and reduce and mitigate casing failure in these reservoirs.

Modeling Methodology
It is essential to consider the effects of multiscale natural fractures when constructing a 3D stress model. Natural-fracture stability can be evaluated and used to identify unstable fractures that may cause casing failures. The fundamental workflow of predicting and preventing the casing failure is as follows:
1. Build a 3D geological model characterizing the spatial distribution and geometry of faults and natural fractures
2. Construct a 3D stress model to characterize the in-situ stress state
3. Perform numerical simulations of hydraulic fracturing and 4D coupled stress simulation to obtain the stress field during and after hydraulic fracturing
4. Quantitatively analyze the shear slip risks of natural fractures by calculating slip tolerance as an indicator to determine risk levels of casing deformation
5. Optimize and adjust engineering parameters for hydraulic fracturing to reduce and mitigate casing deformation
Natural-Fracture Distribution and Model Construction.
In this study, natural fractures parameters such as density, strike, inclination, length of extension, and height were obtained. The natural fractures were calibrated and verified with cores and wellbore images. Natural-fracture distribution was then validated with the expected tectonic history and present-day stress regime.
In Fig. 1, the left-hand plot depicts the ant-tracking results by seismic attribute, the central plot portrays natural fractures validated by microseismic events, and the right-hand plot illustrates the 3D natural-fracture model. Results showed two major fracture strikes, one in the northeast and the other in the northwest, forming a mesh network distribution that will be used in the stress model, fracturing simulation, and slip analysis.