Is the Gulf Coast Fuels Infrastructure Vulnerable? An Examination of Hurricane Vulnerabilities
Authors: Mohan Hitesh , Carolus Marshall , Kuczma Grace 
Published: October 2018

Abstract

OBJECTIVES/SCOPE
As the U.S. is forecasted to become the world's oil producing leader and a net petroleum exporter, the protection and reliability of the U.S.' petroleum infrastructure becomes increasingly important. The Gulf Coast import/export facilities, downstream processors and midstream operators are essential to maintaining energy and economic security and independence. Major hurricanes, from Katrina and Rita in 2005 to Harvey, Irma and Maria in 2017, have greatly impacted these key energy components and have been assessed to define damages to Gulf Coast infrastructure and the cascading effects to interdependent markets.
This study identified and analyzed key critical infrastructure for vulnerability and resiliency to determine the impacts for a range of categorical and geographical simulated hurricanes. Also, hardening and mitigation efforts which have been and could still be implemented to reduce the impact of these disruptions have been identified.

METHODS PROCEDURES, PROCESS
The analysis was conducted through a detailed assessment of the petroleum infrastructure, including wells, pipelines, refineries, crude and product terminals, import and export facilities, natural gas storage and processing facilities, and other key components. Interdependencies between petroleum and other types of infrastructure were also evaluated. As part of this analysis, markets that are supplied by or deliver to the Gulf Coast were also evaluated for impacts from these events. For each of the disruptions modeled, the severity and type of damage, the likelihood of that damage, and the time required for recovery were all established using the latest available research.

RESULTS, OBSERVATIONS, CONCLUSIONS
To complete the analysis several tools were developed and applied. These include a comprehensive geospatial system used to identify major markets and submarkets and to determine dependencies and vulnerabilities; a national disruption model which details the major crude and product markets and calculates market supply/demand requirements and movements; and disruption models to predict the impact on crude and refined products from hurricanes.
The analysis showed that the Gulf Coast fuels infrastructure is vulnerable to being impaired by hurricanes. Furthermore, the interdependencies of the infrastructure, in terms of both type of infrastructure and geographic location, leave the U.S. vulnerable to cascading risks, particularly the East Coast and Mid-Continent. As part of the study, potential mitigation efforts were determined to address regional and national vulnerabilities. The proposed mitigation efforts have been incorporated into the Department of Energy's recent Quadrennial Energy Review. This study provides an update and extension of work performed earlier.

NOVEL/ADDITIVE INFORMATION
The paper provides a detailed assessment of the Gulf Coast fuels infrastructure and its vulnerabilities to natural threats. The geographic risks, as well as the type, probability, and severity of damage, are discussed. Finally, case studies of recent disasters, including the impact of Harvey on the Gulf Coast, Mid-continent, and East Coast, are used to illustrate the fuels infrastructure vulnerabilities and the need for further mitigation efforts.