Multi-Modality Machine Learning Predicting Parkinson’s Disease
Authors: Makarious Mary B. , Leonard Hampton L. , Vitale Dan , Iwaki Hirotaka , Sargent Lana , Dadu Anant , Violich Ivo , Hutchins Elizabeth , Saffo David , Bandres-Ciga Sara , Kim Jonggeol Jeff , Song Yeajin , Bookman Matt , Nojopranoto Willy , Campbell Roy H. , Hashemi Sayed Hadi , Botia Juan A. , Carter John F. , Maleknia Melina , Craig David W. , Keuren-Jensen Kendall Van , Morris Huw R. , Hardy John A. , Blauwendraat Cornelis , Singleton Andrew B. , Faghri Faraz , Nalls Mike A. 
Published: March 2021

SUMMARYBackgroundPersonalized medicine promises individualized disease prediction and treatment. The convergence of machine learning (ML) and available multi-modal data is key moving forward. We build upon previous work to deliver multi-modal predictions of Parkinson’s Disease (PD).MethodsWe performed automated ML on multi-modal data from the Parkinson’s Progression Marker Initiative (PPMI). After selecting the best performing algorithm, all PPMI data was used to tune the selected model. The model was validated in the Parkinson’s Disease Biomarker Program (PDBP) dataset. Finally, networks were built to identify gene communities specific to PD.FindingsOur initial model showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 89.72% for the diagnosis of PD. The tuned model was then tested for validation on external data (PDBP, AUC 85.03%). Optimizing thresholds for classification, increased the diagnosis prediction accuracy (balanced accuracy) and other metrics. Combining data modalities outperforms the single biomarker paradigm. UPSIT was the largest contributing predictor for the classification of PD. The transcriptomic data was used to construct a network of disease-relevant transcripts.InterpretationWe have built a model using an automated ML pipeline to make improved multi-omic predictions of PD. The model developed improves disease risk prediction, a critical step for better assessment of PD risk. We constructed gene expression networks for the next generation of genomics-derived interventions. Our automated ML approach allows complex predictive models to be reproducible and accessible to the community.FundingNational Institute on Aging, National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, the Michael J. Fox Foundation, and the Global Parkinson’s Genetics Program.RESEARCH IN CONTEXTEvidence before this studyPrior research into predictors of Parkinson’s disease (PD) has either used basic statistical methods to make predictions across data modalities, or they have focused on a single data type or biomarker model. We have done this using an open-source automated machine learning (ML) framework on extensive multi-modal data, which we believe yields robust and reproducible results. We consider this the first true multi-modality ML study of PD risk classification.Added value of this studyWe used a variety of linear, non-linear, kernel, neural networks, and ensemble ML algorithms to generate an accurate classification of both cases and controls in independent datasets using data that is not involved in PD diagnosis itself at study recruitment. The model built in this paper significantly improves upon our previous models that used the entire training dataset in previous work1. Building on this earlier work, we showed that the PD diagnosis can be refined using improved algorithmic classification tools that may yield potential biological insights. We have taken careful consideration to develop and validate this model using public controlled-access datasets and an open-source ML framework to allow for reproducible and transparent results.Implications of all available evidenceTraining, validating, and tuning a diagnostic algorithm for PD will allow us to augment clinical diagnoses or risk assessments with less need for complex and expensive exams. Going forward, these models can be built on remote or asynchronously collected data which may be important in a growing telemedicine paradigm. More refined diagnostics will also increase clinical trial efficiency by potentially refining phenotyping and predicting onset, allowing providers to identify potential cases earlier. Early detection could lead to improved treatment response and higher efficacy. Finally, as part of our workflow, we built new networks representing communities of genes correlated in PD cases in a hypothesis-free manner, showing how new and existing genes may be connected and highlighting therapeutic opportunities.