bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Machine learning v. traditional regression models predicting treatment outcomes for binge-eating disorder from a randomized controlled trial
Authors: Forrest Lauren N. , Ivezaj Valentina , Grilo Carlos M. 
Published: November 2021

AbstractBackgroundWhile effective treatments exist for binge-eating disorder (BED), prediction of treatment outcomes has proven difficult, and few reliable predictors have been identified. Machine learning is a promising method for improving the accuracy of difficult-to-predict outcomes. We compared the accuracy of traditional and machine-learning approaches for predicting BED treatment outcomes.MethodsParticipants were 191 adults with BED in a randomized controlled trial testing 6-month behavioral and stepped-care treatments. Outcomes, determined by independent assessors, were binge-eating (% reduction, abstinence), eating-disorder psychopathology, and weight loss (% loss, ⩾5% loss). Predictors included treatment condition, demographic information, and baseline clinical characteristics. Traditional models were logistic/linear regressions. Machine-learning models were elastic net regressions and random forests. Predictive accuracy was indicated by the area under receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC), root mean square error (RMSE), and R2. Confidence intervals were used to compare accuracy across models.ResultsAcross outcomes, AUC ranged from very poor to fair (0.49–0.73) for logistic regressions, elastic nets, and random forests, with few significant differences across model types. RMSE was significantly lower for elastic nets and random forests v. linear regressions but R2 values were low (0.01–0.23).ConclusionsDifferent analytic approaches revealed some predictors of key treatment outcomes, but accuracy was limited. Machine-learning models with unbiased resampling methods provided a minimal advantage over traditional models in predictive accuracy for treatment outcomes.
Rapid Climate Changes in the Westernmost Mediterranean (Alboran Sea) Over the Last 35 kyr: New Insights From Four Lipid Paleothermometers (UK'37, TEXH86, RI‐OH', and LDI)
Authors: Morcillo‐Montalbá L. , Rodrigo‐Gámiz M. , Martínez‐Ruiz F. , Ortega‐Huertas M. , Schouten S. , Sinninghe Damsté J. S. 
Published: November 2021

AbstractThe westernmost Mediterranean is one of the most sensitive areas to global climate change and high sedimentation rates allow recording high frequency variability. We present a high‐resolution paleotemperature reconstruction over the last 35 kyr using, for the first time, four independent organic sea surface temperature (SST) proxies (UK'37, TEXH86, RI‐OH' and LDI) based on alkenones, (hydroxy) isoprenoid GDGTs, and long‐chain diols. We also generated a δ18O of planktonic foraminifera G. bulloides record together with records of bulk parameters (total organic carbon content, δ13Corg) and the accumulation rates of different biomarkers to provide insights into terrestrial input and primary producers. All derived‐SST records showed similar trends over the last 35 kyr, revealing abrupt temperature variations during the last seven Dansgaard‐Oeschger (D/O) cycles, the three Heinrich (H) events, the Last Glacial Maximum, and the Younger Dryas. H3 is recognized as the coldest event, while H1 was recorded by all SST proxies as the most abrupt one. In general, TEXH86‐, RI‐OH'‐ and LDI‐SST estimates were lower than those obtained from UK'37. The LDI paleothermometer recorded the largest range of absolute SSTs over the whole period (ca. 20°C) followed by RI‐OH' (ca. 16°C). TEXH86, RI‐OH' and LDI proxies reflected sudden SST changes during the D/O 6 and 5 particularly well. Low BIT values and the abundance of C32 1,15‐diol in range with typical marine values indicated only minor input of continental organic matter. Accumulation rates of different lipid biomarkers were generally modulated by D/O cycles, suggesting enhanced productivity during D/O interstadials and the Bölling‐Alleröd period.
Anomalous Noble Gas Solubility in Liquid Cloud Water: Possible Implications for Noble Gas Temperatures and Cloud Physics
Authors: Hall Chris M. , Castro M. Clara , Scholl Martha A. , Amalberti Julien , Gingerich Stephen B. 
Published: November 2021

AbstractThe noble gas temperature climate proxy is an established tool that has previously been applied to determine the source of groundwater recharge, however, unanswered questions remain. In fractured media (e.g., volcanic islands) recharge can be so rapid that groundwater is significantly depleted in heavy noble gases, indicating that the water has retained noble gas concentrations from higher elevations. Previous studies of rain samples have confirmed a match to patterns seen in fractured‐rock groundwater for heavy noble gases along with a significant helium excess. Snow has been shown to be a credible source for both the helium excess and the observed heavy noble gas pattern. Here, liquid cloud water samples were collected at two mountainous sites and analyzed for noble gas concentrations. A pattern like that of rainwater was found. However, an analysis of diffusive uptake of noble gases into cloud water demonstrates that droplets of 1 mm diameter and smaller should be in constant solubility equilibrium with the atmosphere. To explain this, we present a novel hypothesis that relies on the assumption that liquid water consists of two types of water molecule clusters bounded by hydrogen bonds: a low‐density ice‐like structure and a high‐density condensed structure. In this model, the pressure gradient near the surface of a droplet resulting from surface tension could allow for the formation of a surface layer that is rich in ice‐like low density clusters. This can explain both the helium excess and the heavy noble gas depletion seen in the samples.
Provenance Shifts During Neogene Brahmaputra Delta Progradation Tied to Coupled Climate and Tectonic Change in the Eastern Himalaya
Authors: Betka Paul M. , Thomson Stuart N. , Sincavage Ryan , Zoramthara C. , Lalremruatfela C. , Lang Karl A. , Steckler Michael S. , Bezbaruah Devojit , Borgohain Pradip , Seeber Leonardo 
Published: November 2021

AbstractThe Bengal Basin preserves the erosional signals of coupled tectonic‐climatic change during late Cenozoic development of the Himalayan orogen, yet regional correlation and interpretation of these signals remains incomplete. We present a new geologic map of fluvial‐deltaic deposits of the Indo‐Burman Ranges (IBR), five detrital zircon fission track analyses, and twelve high‐n detrital zircon U‐Pb age distributions (dzUPb) from the Barail (late Eocene–early Miocene), Surma (early–late Miocene), and Tipam (late Miocene–Pliocene) Groups of the ancestral Brahmaputra delta. We use dzUPb statistical tests to correlate the IBR units with equivalent age strata throughout the Bengal Basin. An influx of trans‐Himalayan sediment and the first appearance of ∼50 Ma grains of the Gangdese batholith in the lower Surma Group (∼18–15 Ma) records the early Miocene arrival of the ancestral Brahmaputra delta to the Bengal Basin. Contributions from Himalayan sources systematically decrease up section through the late Miocene as the contribution of Trans‐Himalayan Arc sources increases. The Miocene (∼18–8 Ma) deposition of the Surma Group records upstream expansion of the ancestral Brahmaputra River into southeastern Tibet. Late Miocene (<8 Ma) progradation of the fluvial part of the delta (Tipam Group) routed trans‐Himalayan sediment over the shelf edge to the Nicobar Fan. We propose that Miocene progradation of the ancestral Brahmaputra delta reflects increasing rates of erosion and sea level fall during intensification of the South Asian Monsoon after the Miocene Climate Optimum, contemporaneous with a pulse of tectonic uplift of the Himalayan hinterland and Tibet.
Deep Residual Convolutional Neural Network Combining Dropout and Transfer Learning for ENSO Forecasting
Authors: Hu Jie , Weng Bin , Huang Tianqiang , Gao Jianyun , Ye Feng , You Lijun 
Published: November 2021

AbstractTo improve EI Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude and type forecast, we propose a model based on a deep residual convolutional neural network with few parameters. We leverage dropout and transfer learning to overcome the challenge of insufficient data in model training process. By applying the dropout technique, the model effectively predicts the Niño3.4 Index at a lead time of 20 months during the 1984–2017 evaluation period, which is three more months than that by the existing optimal model. Moreover, with homogeneous transfer learning this model precisely predicts the Oceanic Niño Index up to 18 months in advance. Using heterogeneous transfer learning this model achieved 83.3% accuracy for forecasting the 12‐month‐lead EI Niño type. These results suggest that our proposed model can enhance the ENSO prediction performance.
Mapping the Sensitivity of the Amundsen Sea Embayment to Changes in External Forcings Using Automatic Differentiation
Authors: Morlighem Mathieu , Goldberg Daniel , Dias dos Santos Thiago , Lee Jane , Sagebaum Max 
Published: November 2021

AbstractThwaites and Pine Island Glaciers as well as other ice streams in West Antarctica have been changing dramatically over the past decades. Although changes in ocean conditions are likely the primary driver of these changes, it remains unclear where other processes could cause more mass loss. By employing Automatic Differentiation and two independent ice‐sheet models, we construct maps of the sensitivity of the volume above floatation to changes in ocean‐induced melt rates, ice rigidity, basal friction, and surface mass balance. We find that changes in basal melt close to the grounding lines and along shear margins have a larger impact on the glaciers' final volume. The glaciers are sensitive to changes in basal friction on regions close to the grounding lines, while changes in ice rigidity has a larger impact along the shear margins of Pine Island. The sensitivity to surface mass balance is uniform over grounded ice.
Tropical Pacific Forcing of Hydroclimate in the Source Area of the Yellow River
Authors: Liu Guangxin , He Shaoneng , Wong Minn Lin , Zou Yafei , He Haibo , E Chongyi , Chawchai Sakonvan , Zheng Hongbo , Li Xiangzhong 
Published: November 2021

AbstractThe source area of the Yellow River (SAYR) contributes over one third of the basin discharge and bears disproportionate significance to water conservation in China. Hydroclimate changes in the SAYR, therefore, have potential far‐reaching socioeconomic consequences. However, the major drivers of the SAYR hydroclimate remain poorly understood, largely due to limited hydroclimatic records. Here, we analyzed the organic, carbonate contents and stable isotopes of 14C‐dated sediments from Ngoring Lake to reconstruct regional hydroclimate spanning the last ∼2,000 years. The results suggest that the SAYR experienced a near‐millennium‐long drying trend since the Medieval Warm Period, regardless of temperature changes and meltwater inputs. This trend, coherent with hydroclimate records from north China, is likely forced by a reduction in tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient. Furthermore, our records have significant implications for other parts of the Tibetan Plateau that will likely develop similar hydroclimate conditions to the SAYR in the future.
The Role of Diffuse Electron Precipitation in the Formation of Subauroral Polarization Streams
Authors: Lin Dong , Sorathia Kareem , Wang Wenbin , Merkin Viacheslav , Bao Shanshan , Pham Kevin , Wiltberger Michael , Shi Xueling , Toffoletto Frank , Michael Adam , Lyon John , Garretson Jeffrey , Anderson Brian 
Published: November 2021

AbstractThe role of diffuse electron precipitation in the formation of subauroral polarization streams (SAPS) is investigated with the Multiscale Atmosphere‐Geospace Environment (MAGE) model. Diffuse precipitation is derived from the distribution of drifting electrons. SAPS manifest themselves as a separate mesoscale flow channel in the duskside ionosphere, which gradually merges with the primary auroral convection toward dayside as the equatorward auroral boundary approaches the poleward Region‐2 field‐aligned currents (FACs) boundary. SAPS expand to lower latitudes and toward the nightside during the main phase of a geomagnetic storm, associated with magnetotail earthward plasma flows building up the ring current and intensifying Region‐2 FACs and electron precipitation. SAPS shrink poleward and sunward as the interplanetary magnetic field turns northward. When diffuse precipitation is turned off in a controlled MAGE simulation, ring current and duskside Region‐2 FACs become weaker, but subauroral zonal ion drifts are still comparable to auroral convection. However, subauroral and auroral convection manifest as a single broad flow channel without showing any mesoscale structure. SAPS overlap with the downward Region‐2 FACs equatorward of diffuse precipitation, where poleward electric fields are strong due to a low conductance in the subauroral ionosphere. The Region‐2 FACs extend to latitudes lower than the diffuse precipitation because the ring current protons penetrate closer to the Earth than the electrons do. This study reproduces the key physics of SAPS formation and their evolution in the coupled magnetosphere‐ionosphere during a geomagnetic storm. Diffuse electron precipitation is demonstrated to play a critical role in determining SAPS location and structure.
Lithosphere Structure and Seismic Anisotropy Offshore Eastern North America: Implications for Continental Breakup and Ultra‐Slow Spreading Dynamics
Authors: Russell J. B. , Gaherty J. B. 
Published: November 2021

AbstractThe breakup of supercontinent Pangea occurred ∼200 Ma forming the Eastern North American Margin (ENAM). Yet, the precise timing and mechanics of breakup and onset of seafloor spreading remain poorly constrained. We investigate the relict lithosphere offshore eastern North America using ambient‐noise Rayleigh‐wave phase velocity (12–32 s) and azimuthal anisotropy (17–32 s) at the ENAM Community Seismic Experiment (CSE). Incorporating previous constraints on crustal structure, we construct a shear velocity model for the crust and upper ∼60 km of the mantle beneath the ENAM‐CSE. A low‐velocity lid (VS of 4.4–4.55 km/s) is revealed in the upper 15–20 km of the mantle that extends ∼200 km from the margin, terminating at the Blake Spur Magnetic Anomaly (BSMA). East of the BSMA, velocities are fast (>4.6 km/s) and characteristic of typical oceanic mantle lithosphere. We interpret the low‐velocity lid as stretched continental mantle lithosphere embedded with up to ∼15% retained gabbro. This implies that the BSMA marks successful breakup and onset of seafloor spreading ∼170 Ma, consistent with ENAM‐CSE active‐source studies that argue for breakup ∼25 Myr later than previously thought. We observe margin‐parallel Rayleigh‐wave azimuthal anisotropy (2%–4% peak‐to‐peak) in the lithosphere that approximately correlates with absolute plate motion (APM) at the time of spreading. We hypothesize that lithosphere formed during ultra‐slow seafloor spreading records APM‐modified olivine fabric rather than spreading‐parallel fabric typical of higher spreading rates. This work highlights the importance of present‐day passive margins for improving understanding of the fundamental rift‐to‐drift transition.
Formation of an Intrathermocline Eddy Triggered by the Coastal‐Trapped Wave in the Northern Bay of Bengal
Authors: Jithin A. K. , Francis P. A. 
Published: November 2021

AbstractThe present study investigates the characteristics and mechanism of intrathermocline eddy (ITE) formation in the northern Bay of Bengal (BoB) using observations from Research Moored Array for African–Asian–Australian Monsoon Analysis and Prediction (RAMA) buoys moored at 15°N, 12°N, and 8°N along 90°E and simulations from a high‐resolution numerical model. Among the RAMA locations, a relatively large number of anticyclonic ITEs are observed in the northern parts (15°N) compared to the other two (12°N and 8°N). The observed ITEs are characterized by a double‐convex shape of isotherms in the thermocline with a vertical extent of about 100–200 m and a positive sea level anomaly in the surface. Water mass properties show that Andaman Sea (AS) water is trapped inside the core of the ITEs. Trajectories of these ITEs (especially at 15°N) suggest that most of them originated in the vicinity of Preparis Channel, the northernmost passage between BoB and AS. Our study shows that vorticity developed downstream of Preparis Channel due to the strong subsurface flow (∼100 cm/s), which carries AS water into the BoB, results in the formation of observed anticyclonic ITE in the northern BoB. Further analysis revealed that this strong subsurface flow through the Preparis Channel is caused by the propagation of downwelling coastal‐trapped waves along the boundaries of BoB, which originates from the equatorial Indian Ocean. Our study suggests that ITEs could be an important pathway of water mass distribution in the intermediate layers in this region.
Vertical Variations of Cloud Microphysical Relationships in Marine Stratocumulus Clouds Observed During the ACE‐ENA Campaign
Authors: Yeom Jae Min , Yum Seong Soo , Shaw Raymond A. , La Inyeob , Wang Jian , Lu Chunsong , Liu Yangang , Mei Fan , Schmid Beat , Matthews Alyssa 
Published: November 2021

AbstractThis study examines the vertical variations of cloud microphysical relationships and their implications to cloud microphysical processes in marine stratocumulus clouds using in‐situ aircraft observations during the Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in Eastern North Atlantic (ACE‐ENA) field campaign. A new diagram with a coordinate system based on cloud droplet liquid water content (Lc) and phase relaxation time scale is proposed to investigate mixing mechanisms. This new diagram analysis shows that the inhomogeneous mixing trait is dominant near the cloud top, but homogeneous mixing trait is stronger at lower altitudes. The relevant scale parameters (i.e., transition length scale and transition scale number) also indicate a high likelihood of inhomogeneous mixing. The relationship between Lc and standard deviation of droplet radius (σR) clearly shows the vertical transition: the correlation between Lc and σR is positive at lower cloud altitudes, but it becomes negative as altitude increases. Such a vertical transition is consistent with the vertical circulation mixing, modulating the cloud microphysical relationships to suggest homogeneous mixing at a significant depth from the cloud top.
Contribution of the Southern Annular Mode to Variations in Water Isotopes of Daily Precipitation at Dome Fuji, East Antarctica
Authors: Kino Kanon , Okazaki Atsushi , Cauquoin Alexandre , Yoshimura Kei 
Published: November 2021

AbstractWater isotopes measured in Antarctic ice cores enable reconstruction at the first order of the past temperature variations. However, the seasonality of the precipitation and episodic events, including synoptic‐scale disturbances, influence the isotopic signals recorded in ice cores. In this study, we adopted an isotope‐enabled atmospheric general circulation model from 1981 to 2010 to investigate variations in climatic factors in δ18O of precipitation (δ18Op) at Dome Fuji, East Antarctica. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the primary mode of atmospheric circulation in the southern midhigh latitudes, significantly contributes to the isotope signals. Positive δ18Op anomalies, especially in the austral winter, are linked to the negative polarity of the SAM, which weakens westerly winds and increases the southward inflow of water vapor flux. Daily variations in temperature and δ18Op in Dome Fuji are significantly small in the austral summer, and their contribution to the annual signals is limited. The isotope signals driven by the SAM are a locational feature of Dome Fuji, related to the asymmetric component of the large‐scale atmospheric pattern.
Uncertainty of SW Cloud Radiative Effect in Atmospheric Models Due to the Parameterization of Liquid Cloud Optical Properties
Authors: Jahangir E. , Libois Q. , Couvreux F. , Vié B. , Saint‐Martin D. 
Published: November 2021

AbstractClouds are largely responsible for the spread of climate models predictions. Here we focus on the uncertainties in cloud shortwave radiative effect due to the parameterization of liquid cloud single scattering properties (SSPs) from liquid water content (LWC) and droplet number concentration (N), named parameterization of cloud optical properties. Uncertainties arise from not accounting for the droplet size distribution (DSD)—which affects the estimation of the effective radius (reff) and modulates the reff‐dependency of the SSPs—and from averaging SSPs over wide spectral bands. To assess these uncertainties a series of reff‐dependent SSPs parameterizations corresponding to various DSDs and spectral averaging methods are derived and implemented in a radiative code. Combined with the DSD‐dependent estimation of reff they are used to compute the bulk radiative properties (reflectance, transmittance, absorptance) of various clouds (defined in terms of LWC and N), including a homogeneous cloud, more realistic case studies, and outputs of a climate model. The results show that the cloud radiative forcing can vary up to 20% depending on the assumed DSD. Likewise, differences up to 20% are obtained for heating rates. The estimation of reff is the main source of uncertainty, while the SSPs parameterization contributes to around 20% of the total uncertainty. Spectral averaging is less an issue, except for atmospheric absorption. Overall, global shortwave cloud radiative effect can vary by 6 W m−2 depending on the assumed DSD shape, which is about 13% of the best observational estimate.
Identifying Stagnation Zones and Reverse Flow Caused by River‐Aquifer Interaction: An Approach Based on Polynomial Chaos Expansions
Authors: Merchán‐Rivera P. , Wohlmuth B. , Chiogna G. 
Published: November 2021

AbstractFluctuating stream stages and peak‐flow events can significantly influence the interactions between streams and aquifers and modify the hydraulic gradient, the flux exchange and the subsurface flow paths. As a result, stagnation zones and reverse flow may appear in different parts of an aquifer and at different times. These features of the flow field play a relevant role in the transport, transformation, and residence time of solutes, pollutants, and nutrients in the subsurface. However, their identification using numerical models is complex not only because of highly nonlinear dynamics, but also due to significant uncertainties in the model input data which propagate into the quantities of interest. In this work, we use an approach based on polynomial chaos expansions to map the probability of occurrence of stagnation zones and reverse flow during a flood event. We quantify the propagation of uncertainty into the groundwater flow field due to the applied river boundary conditions. Then, we evaluate the responses of the posterior probabilities in an element‐wise fashion using a set of flow classification criteria and kernel density estimations. The proposed methodology is flexible because it employs a nonintrusive pseudo‐spectral technique and, consequently, it can be applied straightforwardly in preexisting models. The regions near the confluence of two streams in the studied area are prone to present transient stagnation and reverse flow.