Predictors of Surgical Intervention in Patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease
Authors: Abd El Megeed Khaled Hamdy , Bakr Saleh Shereen Abou , Alphonse Anwar Christina , Elkattary Ahmed Elkattary Mohamed 
Published: October 2021

Abstract

Background
Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is comprised of two major disorders: Ulcerative Colitis and Crohn’s disease. Ulcerative Colitis affects the colon, where as Crohn’s disease can involve any component of the gastrointestinal tract from the mouth to the perianal area. These disorders have somewhat different pathologic and clinical characteristics, but with substantial overlap; their pathogenesis remains poorly understood.

Objective
To determine & detect different predictors that help us to characterize patients with high probability of undergoing surgical intervention for inflammatory bowel diseases.

Patients and Methods
The present study was designed to detect & identify possible factors that can be used to predict surgical intervention in patients with IBD. The present study was a case control study that was conducted on 80 patients with inflammatory bowel disease (either controlled by medical treatment or needed surgical intervention as a part of disease control) who were recruited form Ain-Shams university hospitals and El Quabbary general hospital in Alexandria. In the present study, the mean age of the included patients was 36.67 ±8.5 years old and 50% of the patients were males. The mean age at the onset of the disease was 25.81 ±6.8 years old.

Results
In the present study, there were statistically significant differences between surgical and medical patients in terms of CDAI for CD (p &lt; 0.001) and Mayo score for UC (p &lt; 0.001). Surgical patients were more likely to have higher scores. CDAI and Mayo score were negative predictors of surgical treatment. CDAI score &gt; 287 and Mayo score &gt; 8.5 achieved high sensitivity and specificity for the detection of surgical treatment. In the present study, we found that there was statistically significant differences between surgical and medical patients in terms of Stool Calprotectin level. Surgical patients were more likely to have higher Stool Calprotectin level. Stool Calprotectin level was negative predictor of surgical treatment at a level of &gt; 341.5 microgm/gm with high sensitivity and specificity.

Conclusion
Surgical treatment is a common outcome in IBD. Certain clinical features and the extent of disease are risk factors for surgical intervention. Our study indicates that smoking, Chron’s disease, perianal disease, granulomas, higher severity scores, higher stool Calprotectin level, CRP, and ESR were associated with higher risks of surgical intervention. In addition, smoking, peri-anal disease, CDAI, Mayo score, Stool Calprotectin level, and CRP level were predictors of surgical treatment. The findings of our analysis have implications for practice, particularly in the promotion of preoperative individualized risk prediction. The ability to predict which patients will need surgery and target more intensive, early treatment to that group would be invaluable. Further research through large prospective cohort studies is needed to confirm our findings and conclusions.