The changeable degree assessment of designed flood protection condition for designed unit of inter-basin water transfer project based on the entropy weight method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model
Authors: Minglei Ren , Yingfei Liu , Xiaodi Fu , Liuqian Ding , Gang Wang , Guangyuan Kan , Liping Zhao , YaFeng Zhu 
Published: August 2021

Abstract
Since the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the high-quality development of China’s economy has put forward higher requirements for scientific and technological support of water safety guarantee. The flood control conditions of the design unit of water transfer project have changed to a certain extent compared with the initial design stage, especially the underlying surface of rivers and engineering conditions in the northern region have changed greatly, which has seriously affected the conveyance safety of water transfer project and the supply guarantee of water receiving area. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the change degree of flood control conditions in the design unit of water transfer project, and point out the weak links of flood control, so as to guide the flood control safety construction of the left bank area. In this paper, from the aspects of the change of underlying surface conditions, the actual flood discharge conditions of upstream and downstream, and the actual discharge capacity of buildings, the change of actual flood discharge conditions of water transfer project design unit compared with the original flood control design conditions is comprehensively considered. According to the principle of relatively independent, quantifiable and easy to obtain between indexes, the evaluation index system of flood control design condition change is established, On the basis of determining the classification standard for the quantitative and qualitative indexes, the entropy weight and fuzzy mathematics comprehensive evaluation model are used to evaluate the change degree of the current flood discharge conditions and the original flood control design conditions of each design unit of the water transfer project. For the units with large changes in flood control design conditions in the evaluation results, corresponding measures to eliminate risk factors and risk control will be taken. Finally, taking the flood control risk evaluation of a management office in a large-scale water transfer project as an example, this paper evaluates the change degree of the current flood discharge conditions and the original flood control design conditions of 16 three-level units in the management office. The results show that there are 6 three-level units with changes in the original flood control design conditions, including 4 great changes and 2 significant changes. The application example shows that the entropy weight and fuzzy mathematics comprehensive evaluation model can accurately reflect the change degree of each three-level design unit in the management office, and play a certain technical support role in the study of the performance change law in the life cycle of water transfer project and the theory of water transfer project and service environment evaluation.

PACS: J0101