bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Earthquake Catastrophe Risk Modeling, Application to the Insurance Industry: Unknowns and Possible Sources of Bias in Pricing
Authors: Kohrangi M. , Papadopoulos A. N. , Kotha S. R. , Vamvatsikos D. , Bazzurro P. 
Published: June 2021

AbstractMathematical risk assessment models based on empirical data and supported by the principles of physics and engineering have been used in the insurance industry for more than three decades to support informed decisions for a wide variety of purposes, including insurance and reinsurance pricing. To supplement scarce data from historical events, these models provide loss estimates caused to portfolios of structures by simulated but realistic scenarios of future events with estimated annual rates of occurrence. The reliability of these estimates has evolved steadily from those based on the rather simplistic and, in many aspects, semi-deterministic approaches adopted in the very early days to those of the more recent models underpinned by a larger wealth of data and fully probabilistic methodologies. Despite the unquestionable progress, several modeling decisions and techniques still routinely adopted in commercial models warrant more careful scrutiny because of their potential to cause biased results. In this chapter we will address two such cases that pertain to the risk assessment for earthquakes. With the help of some illustrative but simple applications we will first motivate our concerns with the current state of practice in modeling earthquake occurrence and building vulnerability for portfolio risk assessment. We will then provide recommendations for moving towards a more comprehensive, and arguably superior, approach to earthquake risk modeling that capitalizes on the progress recently made in risk assessment of single buildings. In addition to these two upgrades, which in our opinion are ready for implementation in commercial models, we will also describe an enhancement in ground motion prediction that will certainly be considered in the models of tomorrow but is not yet ready for primetime. These changes are implemented in example applications that highlight their importance for portfolio risk assessment. Special consideration will be given to the potential bias in the Average Annual Loss estimates, which constitutes the foundation of insurance and reinsurance policies’ pricing, that may result from the application of the traditional approaches.
Damage Assessment in Italy, and Experiences After Recent Earthquakes on Reparability and Repair Costs
Authors: Di Ludovico M. , De Martino G. , Prota A. , Manfredi G. , Dolce M. 
Published: June 2021

AbstractRecent devastating earthquakes outlined the importance of quantifying losses and the amount of resources needed for the reconstruction process. The restoration of public or residential buildings in the aftermath of the seismic event may significantly affect national economy. This remarks the primary role and crucial need of having accurate predictions of direct and indirect costs for reconstruction in order to plan effective risk mitigation strategies and perform reliable loss scenarios. The recent Italian seismic events have been a unique occasion to collect observational data on existing buildings. The present work, based on the Italian experience of recent earthquakes, aims at discussing the main aspects related to the damage assessment of residential buildings and reconstruction models together with the huge amount of data collected in the reconstruction processes. In particular, an in-depth analysis of the data provided by the reconstruction process of 2009 L’Aquila earthquake is reported focussing on repair and strengthening intervention costs as a function of the empirical damage,repairability issues, and assistance to population costs. The data are discussed separately for reinforced concrete and masonry residential buildings and refers about 10,100 buildings located Outside Historical Centres (OHC) and Inside Historical Centres (IHC). Finally, the criteria adopted for the definition of the building seismic risk classes at the base of the Italian guidelines for seismic risk classification of constructions are presented together with recent policies adopted in Italy in terms of fiscal deduction for strengthening interventions on private residential buildings.
The Modified Post-earthquake Damage Assessment Methodology for TCIP (TCIP-DAM-2020)
Authors: Ilki A. , Halici O. F. , Comert M. , Demir C. 
Published: June 2021

AbstractPost-Earthquake damage assessment has always been one of the major challenges that both engineers and authorities face after disastrous earthquakes all around the world. Considering the number of buildings in need of inspection and the insufficient number of qualified inspectors, the availability of a thorough, quantitative and rapidly applicable damage assessment methodology is vitally important after such events. At the beginning of the new millennia, an assessment system satisfying these needs was developed for the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (TCIP, known as DASK in Turkey) to evaluate the damages in reinforced concrete (RC) and masonry structures. Since its enforcement, this assessment method has been successfully used after several earthquakes that took place in Turkey, such as 2011 Van Earthquake, 2011 Kutahya Earthquake, 2019 Istanbul Earthquake and 2020 Elazig Earthquake to decide the future of damaged structures to be either ‘repaired’ or ‘demolished’. Throughout the years, the number of research activities focusing on the reparability of earthquake-damaged structures has increased, which is a purposeful parameter in the determination of buildings’ future after earthquakes. Accordingly, TCIP initiated a research project with a sole aim to regulate and reevaluate the damage assessment algorithm based on the results of state-of-the-art scientific research. This chapter presents the new version of the damage assessment methodology for reinforced concrete structures which was developed for TCIP (TCIP-DAM-2020). In addition, an application of the developed damage assessment algorithm on an earthquake-damaged reinforced concrete building which was struck by Kocaeli (1999) earthquake is presented.
From Convergence to Divergence: The Compatibility of Turkish and EU Foreign Policy
Authors: Torun Zerrin 
Published: June 2021

AbstractThis chapter assesses the compatibility of Turkish and EU foreign policies between 1959 and 2020. Based on the analysis of key international developments and Turkey’s alignment with the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), the chapter identifies four periods that were characterized by different degrees of convergence and divergence. In the period between 1959 and 1998 compatibility was relatively high as Turkish foreign policy was guided by the goal of remaining part of the Western community of states throughout the Cold War and its immediate aftermath. Between 1999 and 2002, Turkish foreign policy became regionally more active, in a similar way to that of the EU, but produced few results. The period between 2003 and 2010, up to the Arab Spring, is identified as the ‘golden age’ of compatibility between Turkish and EU foreign policies. Turkey’s prevailing ethos of this period, i.e., relying on soft power and cooperation with neighbors, was generally in line with the EU’s foreign policy approach. Since 2011, divergences between the EU and Turkey have increased, in particular with regard to Syria, Cyprus, and the Eastern Mediterranean. As Turkey defined its norms and interests differently from the EU, its rate of alignment with the EU’s CFSP decreased remarkably. The chapter concludes by looking to the future, arguing that cooperation between the EU and Turkey is likely to focus on issues where there is strong compatibility in selected areas only, such as pandemics, counterterrorism, migration, and energy, and will be primarily based on ad hoc mechanisms.
Neoliberalism, Liberal Intergovernmentalism and EU–Turkey Relations
Authors: Tsarouhas Dimitris 
Published: June 2021

AbstractThis chapter investigates and explains EU–Turkey relations from the perspective of Liberal Intergovernmentalism (LI). After setting out the main premises of neoliberalism in International Relations (IR) and the three-step approach to integration espoused by LI, the chapter focuses on EU–Turkey relations over time, and by the use of concrete forms of cooperation, ranging from the Customs Union to Turkey’s membership application and the EU–Turkey Statement on migration. Based on this analysis, I argue that the transactional, issue-specific character EU–Turkey relations have assumed are unlikely to go away any time soon. Neither Turkey’s full EU accession nor a complete breakdown of relations is likely to happen, given the set of powerful economic interests binding the two sides, as well as the diversity of member states’ preferences regarding Turkey’s EU vocation.
Discourse analysis of academic debate of ethics for AGI
Authors: Graham Ross 
Published: June 2021

AbstractArtificial general intelligence is a greatly anticipated technology with non-trivial existential risks, defined as machine intelligence with competence as great/greater than humans. To date, social scientists have dedicated little effort to the ethics of AGI or AGI researchers. This paper employs inductive discourse analysis of the academic literature of two intellectual groups writing on the ethics of AGI—applied and/or ‘basic’ scientific disciplines henceforth referred to as technicians (e.g., computer science, electrical engineering, physics), and philosophy-adjacent disciplines henceforth referred to as PADs (e.g., philosophy, theology, anthropology). These groups agree that AGI ethics is fundamentally about mitigating existential risk. They highlight our moral obligation to future generations, demonstrate the ethical importance of better understanding consciousness, and endorse a hybrid of deontological/utilitarian normative ethics. Technicians favor technocratic AGI governance, embrace the project of ‘solving’ moral realism, and are more deontologically inclined than PADs. PADs support a democratic approach to AGI governance, are more skeptical of deontology, consider current AGI predictions as fundamentally imprecise, and are wary of using AGI for moral fact-finding.
Fairness and fuzzy coalitions
Authors: Donnini Chiara , Pesce Marialaura 
Published: June 2021

AbstractIn this paper, we study the problem of a fair redistribution of resources among agents in an exchange economy á la Shitovitz (Econometrica 41:467–501, 1973), with agents’ measure space having both atoms and an atomless sector. We proceed by following the idea of Aubin (Mathematical methods of game economic theory. North-Holland, Amsterdam, New York, Oxford, 1979) to allow for partial participation of individuals in coalitions, that induces an enlargement of the set of ordinary coalitions to the so-called fuzzy or generalized coalitions. We propose a notion of fairness which, besides efficiency, imposes absence of envy towards fuzzy coalitions, and which fully characterizes competitive equilibria and Aubin-core allocations.
Reverse total shoulder arthroplasty in patients with type B2, B3, and type C glenoids: comparable clinical outcome to patients without compromised glenoid bone stock—a matched pair analysis
Authors: Loucas Rafael , Kriechling Philipp , Loucas Marios , El Nashar Rany , Gerber Christian , Wieser Karl 
Published: June 2021

Abstract
Background
Primarily posterior bone deficient (dysplastic) (Walch type C) or secondarily eroded (Walch type B2 or B3) glenoids represent a surgical challenge for shoulder arthroplasty. Due to the posteriorly static decentered head, reverse total shoulder arthroplasty (RTSA) is often considered as the treatment of choice. The purpose of this study is to report the clinical and radiographic outcomes, complications and reoperations of RTSA for posteriorly deficient glenoids.

Materials and methods
All patients who underwent RTSA for osteoarthritis secondary to underlying glenoid deficiency (Walch type B2, B3 and C) between 2005 and 2018 (study group), were identified from our institutional shoulder arthroplasty database and gender- and age-matched to a cohort of patients with normal glenoid bone stock (control group). Longitudinal pre- and postoperative clinical [Constant–Murley (CS) score, Subjective Shoulder Value (SSV)] and radiographic outcomes were assessed.

Results
We included 188 patients (94 in each group). The median follow-up was 43 ± 26 (24–144) months in the study group and 59 ± 32 (24–124) months in the control group. The glenoid deficiency was addressed by using glenoid bone reconstruction. The surgical site complication and revision rate of RTSA in patients with bony deficient glenoids were 17% and 7%. Although glenoid loosening was slightly higher in the study group (5 vs. 2), overall no significant differences were found between the study and control groups in satisfaction scores, preoperative and postoperative absolute and relative Constant scores, complication and revision rates, respectively.

Conclusion
Reverse total shoulder arthroplasty (RTSA) seems to be a valuable treatment option for patients with primary (dysplasia) or secondary (wear) posterior glenoid deficiency. Although severe glenoid bone loss seems to be a risk factor for glenoid component failure, the overall complication and revision rates as well as clinical and radiographic outcome are comparable to RTSA in patients without compromised glenoid bone stock.

Level of evidence
Level III: case–control study
A single-surgeon experience in reconstruction of femoro-acetabular offset and implant positioning in direct anterior approach and anterolateral MIS approach with a curved short stem
Authors: Luger Matthias , Hochgatterer Rainer , Klotz Matthias C. , Allerstorfer Jakob , Gotterbarm Tobias , Schauer Bernhard 
Published: June 2021

Abstract
Purpose
Minimally invasive surgery using short stems in total hip arthroplasty gained more popularity. The differences in change of hip offset and implant positioning in minimally invasive approaches are not fully known. Therefore, this study was conducted to evaluate the difference in reconstruction of hip offset and implant positioning in direct anterior approach (DAA) and minimally invasive anterolateral approach (AL MIS).

Methods
A single surgeon series of 117 hips (117 patients; mean age 65.54 years ± 11.47; index surgery 2014–2018) were included and allocated into two groups: group A (DAA) with 70 hips and Group B (AL MIS) with 47 patients operated. In both groups the same type of cementless curved short hip stem and press fit cup was used.

Results
Both groups showed an equal statistically significant increase of femoral (p < 0.001) and decrease of acetabular offset (p < 0.001). Between both groups no statistically significant difference in offset reconstruction, leg length difference or implant positioning could be found. Leg length increased in both groups significantly and leg length discrepancy showed no difference (group A: − 0.06 mm; group B: 1.11 mm; p < 0.001). A comparable number of cups were positioned outside the target zone regarding cup anteversion.

Conclusion
The usage of a curved short stem shows an equal reconstruction of femoro-acetabular offset, leg length and implant positioning in both MIS approaches. The results of this study show comparable results to the existing literature regarding change of offset and restoration of leg length. Malposition of the acetabular component regarding anteversion poses a risk.
Reinterventions following laparoscopic cholecystectomy and bile duct exploration. A review of prospective data from 5740 patients
Authors: Ng Hwei Jene , Nassar Ahmad H. M. 
Published: June 2021

AbstractBackgroundComplications following laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) and common bile duct exploration (CBDE) for the management of gallstones or choledocholithiasis impact negatively on patients’ quality of life and may lead to reinterventions. This study aims to evaluate the causes and types of reintervention following index admission LC with or without CBDE.MethodsA prospectively maintained database of LC and CBDE performed by a single surgeon was analysed. Preoperative factors, difficulty grading and perioperative complications requiring reintervention and readmissions were examined.ResultsReinterventions were required in 112 of 5740 patients (2.0%), 89 (1.6%) being subsequent to complications. The reintervention cohort had a median age of 64 years, were more likely to be females (p < 0.0023) and to be emergency admissions (67.9%,p < 0.00001) with obstructive jaundice (35.7%,p < 0.00001). 46.4% of the reintervention cohort had a LC operative difficulty grade IV or V and 65.2% underwent a CBDE. Open conversion was predictive of the potential for reintervention (p < 0.00001). The most common single cause of reintervention was retained stones (0.5%) requiring ERCP followed by bile leakage (0.3%) requiring percutaneous drainage, ERCP and relaparoscopy. Relaparoscopy was necessary in 17 patients and open surgery in 13, 6 of whom not resulting from complications. There were 5 deaths.ConclusionThis large series had a low incidence of reinterventions resulting from complications in spite of a high workload of index admission surgery for biliary emergencies and bile duct stones. Surgical or endoscopic reinterventions following LC alone occurred in only 0.8%. The most common form of reintervention was ERCP for retained CBD stones. This important outcome parameter of laparoscopic biliary surgery can be optimised through early diagnosis and timely reintervention for complications.
Cumulant–Cumulant Relations in Free Probability Theory from Magnus’ Expansion
Authors: Celestino Adrian , Ebrahimi-Fard Kurusch , Patras Frédéric , Perales Daniel 
Published: June 2021

AbstractRelations between moments and cumulants play a central role in both classical and non-commutative probability theory. The latter allows for several distinct families of cumulants corresponding to different types of independences: free, Boolean and monotone. Relations among those cumulants have been studied recently. In this work, we focus on the problem of expressing with a closed formula multivariate monotone cumulants in terms of free and Boolean cumulants. In the process, we introduce various constructions and statistics on non-crossing partitions. Our approach is based on a pre-Lie algebra structure on cumulant functionals. Relations among cumulants are described in terms of the pre-Lie Magnus expansion combined with results on the continuous Baker–Campbell–Hausdorff formula due to A. Murua.
Effect of Suboptimal Neuromuscular Control on the Risk of Massive Wear in Total Knee Replacement
Authors: Viceconti Marco , Curreli Cristina , Bottin Francesca , Davico Giorgio 
Published: June 2021

AbstractThe optimal neuromuscular control (muscle activation strategy that minimises the consumption of metabolic energy) during level walking is very close to that which minimises the force transmitted through the joints of the lower limbs. Thus, any suboptimal control involves an overloading of the joints. Some total knee replacement patients adopt suboptimal control strategies during level walking; this is particularly true for patients with co-morbidities that cause neuromotor control degeneration, such as Parkinson’s Disease (PD). The increase of joint loading increases the risk of implant failure, as reported in one study in PD patients (5.44% of failures at 9 years follow-up). One failure mode that is directly affected by joint loading is massive wear of the prosthetic articular surface. In this study we used a validated patient-specific biomechanical model to estimate how a severely suboptimal control could increase the wear rate of total knee replacements. Whereas autopsy-retrieved implants from non-PD patients typically show average polyethylene wear of 17 mm3 per year, our simulations suggested that a severely suboptimal control could cause a wear rate as high as of 69 mm3 per year. Assuming the risk of implant failure due to massive wear increase linearly with the wear rate, a severely suboptimal control could increase the risk associated to that failure mode from 0.1% to 0.5%. Based on these results, such increase would not be not sufficient to justify alone the higher incidence rate of revision in patients affected by Parkinson’s Disease, suggesting that other failure modes may be involved.
Analysis on the economic effect of Sino-US trade friction from the perspective of added value
Authors: Zhu Zhu , Zheng Hang , Zhu Zhu 
Published: June 2021

AbstractBased on the theory of trade added value, this paper discusses the potential actual trade scale and benefit damage degree of the two countries under the background of big country game by measuring the real trade scale of China and the USA, simulating the economic impact of tariffs imposed by China and the USA and utilizing Wang–Wei–Zhu (WWZ) method to decompose the potential changes in Sino-US trade. The results show that: firstly, the size of China-US trade in terms of total value is significantly overestimated and China's overall trade with the USA in 2001–2014 was overestimated by an average of 3.06 percent, of which goods trade was overestimated by 8.06 percent. Secondly, although tariff increases can reduce the degree of trade imbalance between China and the USA to some extent, the adverse effects are mutual and global, and the European Union, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Japan and Canada become the main transfer countries of Sino-US trade. Thirdly, the pattern of China's final exports and the US' intermediate exports determines that China's trade interests are more damaged than those of the USA. It is proved that there is a big gap between China and the USA in the depth and breadth of China's participation in the value chain division of labor and the trade scale measured by Gross Domestic Product is more instructive than the total value.
The duration of word-final s in English: A comparison of regular-plural and pluralia-tantum nouns
Authors: Schlechtweg Marcel , Corbett Greville G. 
Published: June 2021

AbstractThe alveolar fricative occurs in word-final position in English in different grammatical functions. Nominal suffixes may indicate plurality (e.g.cars), genitive case (e.g.car’s) or plurality and genitive case in cumulation (e.g.cars’). Further, there are the third person singular verbal suffix (e.g.she fears) and the cliticized forms of the third person singular forms ofhaveandbe(e.g.she’s been lucky;she’s friendly). There is also non-affixals(e.g.freeze(noun)). Against the standard view that all these types are homophonous, several empirical studies have shown that at least some of the fricatives listed can actually be differentiated in their duration. The present article expands this line of research and considers a further case, which has not been included in previous analyses: pluralia-tantum nouns (e.g.goggles). We report on a carefully controlled reading study in which native speakers of British English produced pluralia-tantum and comparable regular-plural nouns (e.g.toggles). The duration of the word-final fricative was measured, and it was found that the two do not systematically differ in this acoustic parameter. The new data are interpreted in comparison to relevant previous studies, and against the background of the similarities of pluralia-tantum and regular-plural nouns.