Identifying Predictors for Academic Performance in the MCG Pre‐Clinical Curriculum
Authors: Bennett Briana R. , Edmondson Anna C. , Russell Barbara , Nichols Carol A. 
Published: June 2021

IntroductionPoor performance on standardized exams can delay or prevent progression through the medical school curriculum. Identification of early predictors of academic and USMLE Step 1 performance in Years 1 & 2 is critical for supporting students who are at risk.Purpose and HypothesisThe purpose of this study was to examine whether academic performance in Years 1 & 2 correlates with performance on the USMLE Step 1 exam and to identify early predictors for students at risk for academic difficulty. We hypothesized that there are academic performance predictors (i.e. component & module grades) from both Year 1 & 2 that will help identify students who are at risk for poor performance in Year 2 and on the USMLE Step 1 exam.MethodsAt the Medical College of Georgia, comprehensive end‐of‐module exams and National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) exams are given to assess retention of knowledge and facilitate preparation for USMLE Step 1. Customized NBME exams are given at the end of Year 1 (NBME 1) & Year 2 (NBME 2). The NBME Comprehensive Basic Science Exam (CBSE) is given during the spring semester of Year 2. Academic performance data (defined as final module/component scores and NBME exam performance) in the preclinical curriculum from Classes of 2017 (n=187) & 2018 (n=185) were analyzed. Multiple regression analyses were performed to explore relationships between academic performance in Years 1 & 2 and performance on Step 1. Independent variables were Year 2 academic performance (determined by overall weighted average) and Step 1 score. Dependent variables were module & component grades and NBME exam scores.ResultsSignificant predictors for academic performance were identified. For the Class of 2017, Year 1 predictors for overall academic performance in Year 2 were the Nervous System & Special Senses (NSSS) & Endocrine‐Reproductive (ER) modules and Physiology component (combined R2=0.69; p<0.05). Physiology and the NBME 1 exam were also significant predictors for performance on Step 1 (combined R2=0.43; p<0.05). In the Year 2 curriculum, the NMBE 2 exam and overall Year 2 weighted average were significant predictors for Step 1 performance (combined R2=0.64; p<0.05). For the Class of 2018, Year 1 predictors for performance in Year 2 were the Medical Neuroscience & Behavioral Health (MNBH) and Head, Neck, & Special Senses (HNSS) modules and Physiology & Biochemistry components (combined R2=0.72; p<0.05). The NBME 1 exam, Physiology component, and MNBH module were also significant predictors for performance on Step 1 (combined R2=0.55; p<0.05). In Year 2, the NBME 2 & CBSE exams and Pharmacology component were significant predictors for USMLE Step 1 exam performance (combined R2=0.73; p<0.05). For both classes, significant early predictors for Step 1 performance were the Year 2 fall semester weighted average, CBSE exam, and Year 2 Cardiopulmonary module with a combined R2 of 0.60 (2017) & 0.69 (2018) (p<0.05).ConclusionPhysiology and the neuroscience‐intensive modules are likely predictors for success, as they provide a foundation for multiple modules and testable knowledge on Step 1. Identifying academic performance predictors is important to provide targeted assistance to students, such as supplemental instruction and additional Step 1 preparation. The Year 2 fall semester weighted average is a consistent early predictor for Step 1 performance. Identification of at risk students at this time point would allow for additional time for targeted assistance for Step 1.This abstract is from the Experimental Biology 2018 Meeting. There is no full text article associated with this abstract published in The FASEB Journal.