Quantifying the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on gastrointestinal cancer care delivery.
Authors: Perkons Nicholas , Kim Casey , Boedec Chris , Schneider Charles John , Teitelbaum Ursina R. , Ben-Josef Edgar , Gabriel Peter Edward , Plastaras John Peter , Shulman Lawrence N. , Wojcieszynski Andrzej 
Published: January 2021

30 Background: Changes in healthcare utilization and delivery during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic have altered the presentation, treatment, and management of patients with gastrointestinal (GI) malignancies. We hypothesize this has contributed to diagnostic and treatment delays that will increase disease morbidity and mortality. Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study comparing healthcare utilization of patients with diagnosed GI malignancy (ICD10:C15-C26) during and prior to the COVID-19 pandemic within our health system. Deidentified patient encounter parameters were collected for the first 20 weeks of both 2019 and 2020, including the number of: new patient visits (NPVs), hospital admissions, and specialty encounters. Difference-in-difference analyses adjusted for week-specific and year-specific effects quantified the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on care delivery, with week 11 of 2020 marking the start of the pandemic period. Results: The 2019 and 2020 cohorts of patients had similar demographic compositions on the basis of sex and ethnicity (2019: n = 23,536, 56.8% M, 70.4/16.3/1.9% White/Black/Hispanic; 2020: n = 25,773, 57.0% M, 70.3/16.3/2.0% White/Black/Hispanic). Across all GI malignancies, the COVID-19 pandemic period was associated with a significant decrease in NPVs (-50.0/week, -45% from 2019, p < 1e-3). Colorectal cancer (CRC) had the largest decrease in NPVs among GI malignancies (-25.3/week, -53% from 2019, p < 1e-4). Of note, there was a parallel decrease in colonoscopies during this time (-682/week, -91% from 2019, p < 1e-11). For patients with diagnosed GI malignancies, the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with statistically significant declines in hospital admissions (-31.7/week, -37% from 2019, p < 1e-5), radiology encounters (-177/week, -38% from 2019, p < 1e-6), radiation oncology encounters (-18.2/week, -12% from 2019, p < 0.01), chemotherapy infusion visits (-62.2/week, -17% from 2019, p < 1e-4), and surgery encounters (-71.1/week, -15.7% from 2019, p < 0.01). Subgroup analyses revealed these reductions were most significant in patients with CRC (radiology encounters, surgery encounters, hospital admissions), anal cancer (radiation oncology encounters), and pancreatic cancer (chemotherapy infusion visits). Conclusions: These data demonstrate that the COVID-19 pandemic is associated with significant disruptions to care delivery. While these effects were appreciated broadly across GI malignancies, CRC—diagnosed and managed by periodic screening—has been affected most acutely. The precipitous drop in screening colonoscopies likely contributed to the decline in NPVs, specialty encounters and hospital admissions. These findings underscore the importance of reinstating regular GI cancer screening and management. Future work will assess the impact of these and other changes to cancer care delivery on long term morbidity and mortality.