Basic regional risks of territorial development for Siberian federal district
Authors: Москвичев В.В. , Тасейко О.В. , Иванова У.С. , Черных Д.А. 
Published: October 2021

Выполнен анализ индивидуальных стратегических рисков социально-природно-
техногенной системы промышленного региона на примере территорий Сибирского
федерального округа. Рассмотрены основные виды рисков и их средние значения для двух групп: потенциальные и реализованные, и приведены факторы, их
определяющие. Выполнено сравнение фактических и нормативных уровней риска с учетом особенностей регионального развития территорий. Выявлены базовые
индивидуальные риски для территории Красноярского края.
The purpose of the work is to analyze and evaluate individual strategic risks arising
in the socio-natural-technogenic system of the industrial region by the example of the
territories of the Siberian Federal District. We present a comparative assessment of
actual and regulatory risk levels, taking into account the specific features of regional
development of the territories. Partly this project is aimed to carry out comparative
assessment of the actual and normative risk levels taking into account regional features
of territory’s development.
Risk assessment methods are based on normative documents of the Russian Federation.
The individual risks of deaths caused by technogenic emergency (the realized
risks) were calculating with using MP 2-4-71-40 for some regions of Siberian Federal
District. The cancerogenic and non-cancerogenic inhalation risks for population health
are counted by according to methodology P 2.1.10.1920-04. The general methodology
of territorial risks assessment includes techniques and models of anthropogenic risks
assessment, creating of crisis databases, algorithms of mapping with using GIS-technologies.
Results. The assessment of inhalation risks was carried out for the cities of Krasnoyarsk
region using the data of the state environmental monitoring network during from
2003 to 2014. The individual risks of death caused by technogenic emergency were
calculated according to the data of EMERCOM for Krasnoyarsk, Omsk, Novosibirsk
and Kemerovo regions during 2011–2015.
Basic individual risks for Krasnoyarsk region are determined taking into account
the specialty of regional development.
Findings. Assessment of the levels of environmental and human-made risks expands
the possibilities for developing economic mechanisms for regulating the safety of regions
and territories, including insurance of potentially dangerous objects and people living in
areas of possible damage due to emergencies, which leads to a decrease in the volume of
compensation payments from local government budgets. On the other hand, reducing
the risks of emergencies provides more stable functioning of the economic potential
and increases the competitive (investment) advantages of the region. A comprehensive
assessment of the environmental condition and safety at the level of municipalities
and industrial regions should be carried out on the basis of a systemic analysis of
development risks, which will improve the level of efficiency of territorial management by
implementing measures to reduce the actual values of the risks of territorial development.