bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
From Noise to Bias: Overconfidence in New Product Forecasting
Authors: Feiler Daniel , Tong Jordan 
Published: November 2021

We study decision behavior in the selection, forecasting, and production for a new product. In a stylized behavioral model and five experiments, we generate new insight into when and why this combination of tasks can lead to overconfidence (specifically, overestimating the demand). We theorize that cognitive limitations lead to noisy interpretations of signal information, which itself is noisy. Because people are statistically naive, they directly use their noisy interpretation of the signal information as their forecast, thereby underaccounting for the uncertainty that underlies it. This process leads to unbiased forecast errors when considering products in isolation, but leads to positively biased forecasts for the products people choose to launch due to a selection effect. We show that this selection-driven overconfidence can be sufficiently problematic that, under certain conditions, choosing the product randomly can actually yield higher profits than when individuals themselves choose the product to launch. We provide mechanism evidence by manipulating the interpretation noise through information complexity—showing that even when the information is equivalent from a Bayesian perspective, more complicated information leads to more noise, which, in turn, leads to more overconfidence in the chosen products. Finally, we leverage this insight to show that getting a second independent forecast for a chosen product can significantly mitigate the overconfidence problem, even when both individuals have the same information. This paper was accepted by Charles Corbett, operations management.
Forecasting Skills in Experimental Markets: Illusion or Reality?
Authors: Corgnet Brice , Deck Cary , DeSantis Mark , Porter David 
Published: November 2021

There is an ongoing debate regarding the degree to which a forecaster’s ability to draw correct inferences from market signals is real or illusory. This paper attempts to shed light on the debate by examining how personal characteristics do or do not affect forecaster success. Specifically, we investigate the role of fluid intelligence, manipulativeness, and theory of mind on forecast accuracy in experimental asset markets. We find that intelligence improves forecaster performance when market mispricing is low, manipulativeness improves forecaster performance when mispricing is high, and the degree to which theory of mind skills matter depends on both the level of mispricing and how information is displayed. All three of these results are consistent with hypotheses derived from the previous literature. Additionally, we observe that male forecasters outperform female forecasters after controlling for intelligence, manipulativeness, and theory of mind skills as well as risk aversion. Interestingly, we do not find any evidence that forecaster performance improves with experience across markets or within markets.This paper was accepted by Axel Ockenfels, behavioral economics and decision analysis.
Organizing Entrepreneurial Teams: A Field Experiment on Autonomy over Choosing Teams and Ideas
Authors: Boss Viktoria , Dahlander Linus , Ihl Christoph , Jayaraman Rajshri 
Published: November 2021

Scholars have suggested that autonomy can lead to better entrepreneurial team performance. Yet, there are different types of autonomy, and they come at a cost. We shed light on whether two fundamental organizational design choices—granting teams autonomy to (1) choose project ideas to work on and (2) choose team members to work with—affect performance. We run a field experiment involving 939 students in a lean startup entrepreneurship course over 11 weeks. The aim is to disentangle the separate and joint effects of granting autonomy over choosing teams and choosing ideas compared with a baseline treatment with preassigned ideas and team members. We find that teams with autonomy over choosing either ideas or team members outperform teams in the baseline treatment as measured by pitch deck performance. The effect of choosing ideas is significantly stronger than the effect of choosing teams. However, the performance gains vanish for teams that are granted full autonomy over choosing both ideas and teams. This suggests the two forms of autonomy are substitutes. Causal mediation analysis reveals that the main effects of choosing ideas or teams can be partly explained by a better match of ideas with team members’ interests and prior network contacts among team members, respectively. Although homophily and lack of team diversity cannot explain the performance drop among teams with full autonomy, our results suggest that self-selected teams fall prey to overconfidence and complacency too early to fully exploit the potential of their chosen idea. We discuss the implications of these findings for research on organizational design, autonomy, and innovation. History: This paper has been accepted for the Organization Science Special Issue on Experiments in Organizational Theory. Funding: The authors are grateful for funding from the Innovation Growth Laboratory, the Peter Curtius Foundation, and the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft [Grant CRC TRR 190]. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.2021.1520 .
Accurate stereo vision system calibration with chromatic concentric fringe patterns
Authors: An Shiyong , Yang Hongyu , Zhou Pei , Xiao Wenfan , Zhu Jiangping , Guo Yanqiong 
Published: November 2021

Camera calibration is used to determine the intrinsic and extrinsic
parameters of a 3D imaging system based on structured light.
Traditional methods like chessboard and circular dots usually employ
an intensity-based feature point detection procedure, and are
susceptible to noise, image contrast, and image blur. To address these
issues, we proposed an active calibration method to accurately detect
the centers of chromatic concentric fringe patterns (CCFP).
Specifically, we first acquired the circular phase using a phase
analysis algorithm, then extracted nine phase contours from the
circular phase for the corresponding subpixel center coordinates using
an ellipse fitting algorithm, and precisely calculated the final
center with their weighted sum. We ran a simulation and evaluated the
impacts of different degrees of Gaussian blur and noise on the
calibrated parameters. The simulation demonstrates that our approach
is more robust to noise and blur than previous ones, and our approach
yields a higher calibration accuracy. Moreover, we carried out a
comparison experiment to evaluate the performance of our method. It
showed that the reprojection error can be reduced by at least 10% in
the out-of-focus condition (i.e., the target is beyond the working
distance of the camera) and the 3D reconstruction accuracy can be
improved by nearly 10%.
Characterization of the endometrial, cervicovaginal and anorectal microbiota in post-menopausal women with endometrioid and serous endometrial cancers
Authors: Gressel Gregory M. , Usyk Mykhaylo , Frimer Marina , Kuo D. Y. S. , Burk Robert D. 
Published: November 2021

Objective
To characterize the microbiota of postmenopausal women undergoing hysterectomy for endometrioid (EAC) or uterine serous cancers (USC) compared to controls with non-malignant conditions.

Methods
Endometrial, cervicovaginal and anorectal microbial swabs were obtained from 35 postmenopausal women (10 controls, 14 EAC and 11 USC) undergoing hysterectomy. Extracted DNA was PCR amplified using barcoded 16S rRNA gene V4 primers. Sequenced libraries were processed using QIIME2. Phyloseq was used to calculate α- and β- diversity measures. Biomarkers associated with case status were identified using ANCOM after adjustment for patient age, race and BMI. PICRUSt was used to identify microbial pathways associated with case status.

Results
Beta-diversity of microbial communities across each niche was significantly different (R2 = 0.25, p < 0.001). Alpha-diversity of the uterine microbiome was reduced in USC (Chao1, p = 0.004 and Fisher, p = 0.007) compared to EAC. Biomarkers from the three anatomical sites allowed samples to be clustered into two distinct clades that distinguished controls from USC cases (p = 0.042). The USC group was defined by 13 bacterial taxa across the three sites (W-stat>10, FDR<0.05) including depletion of cervicovaginal Lactobacillus and elevation of uterine Pseudomonas. PICRUSTt analysis revealed highly significant differences between the USC-associated clades within the cervicovaginal and uterine microbiota.

Conclusions
The microbial diversity of anatomic niches in postmenopausal women with EAC and USC is different compared to controls. Multiple bacteria are associated with USC case status including elevated levels of cervicovaginal Lactobacillus, depletion of uterine Pseudomonas, and substantially different functional potentials identified within cervicovaginal and uterine niches.
La conquista del espacio: cine silente uruguayo (1915–32), Georgina Torello (2018)
Authors: León Juan Sebastián Ospina 
Published: November 2021

Review of: La conquista del espacio: cine silente uruguayo (1915–32), Georgina Torello (2018)
Montevideo: Editorial Yaugurú, 276 pp.,
ISBN 978-9-97489-027-5, p/bk
Corrosion of ISG by Mg-Si precipitation in presence of Ankerite
Authors: Al Dabbas Ali , Kopecskó Katalin 
Published: November 2021

Abstract
Contact with groundwater in the disposal geological site will induce the creation of an amorphous corrosion layer on the high-level radioactive glass. This is connected to silicate saturation conditions in the surrounding medium, and it is influenced significantly by geochemical processes in the near-field minerals at that depth. The international simple glass is a six-oxide borosilicate glass that is commonly used in nuclear interest. It is a simple glass generated from its composition to be an international benchmark glass. The results of the standard materials characterization center leaching tests in double deionized water at 90 °C and an initial pH value of 6.3 showed that it reacts with Ankerite for a short period of time. The effect of Ankerite on borosilicate glass durability through magnesium-silicate precipitation has been investigated and confirmed in this study.
«Etiamsi Deus non daretur». Nominalismo medieval y secularización moderna
Authors: Carpintero Francisco 
Published: November 2021

La secularizacion de la doctrina sobre la etica no fue resultado de las mentalidades protestantes, sino obra de buena parte de los teologos catolicos de la Baja Edad Media. Aquellos hombres se encontraron ante la necesidad de luchar contra las doctrinas pelagianas y semipelagianas que, al no distinguir entre el mundo natural y el sobrenatural, con tanta facilidad conducian al panteismo. Esta labor (llamemosla apologetica) no fue realizada por los aristotelicos, sino por los que ahora llamamos nominalistas aunque, quiza mejor, sea llamarlos nominales. Su solucion consistio en separar severamente el mundo natural del sobrenatural, de modo que lo natural, incluida la ley natural, en cuanto que natural, es parte de lo que ya esta o existe, del mismo modo que el resto de la naturaleza, y su observancia carece de relevancia propiamente moral.
Momentáneamente se apartaron de Pelagio, pero contribuyeron a difundir la idea de una ética natural que existiría al margen de la Teología y que tendría una vigencia solamente ‘racional’.
Социально-экономические детерминанты детской и подростковой смертности от внешних причин в Москве
Authors: Ветрова Екатерина Дмитриевна 
Published: November 2021

Детская и подростковая смертность в России превышает показатели стран-лидеров по ожидаемой продолжительности жизни. Существенный вклад в это вносит смертность от внешних причин. Опыт других стран показывает, что смертность от этого класса причин может быть значительно снижена при помощи мер социальной политики. В статье анализируется влияние социальных и экономических характеристик районов Москвы на смертность в них от внешних причин в детских и подростковых возрастных группах в 2016-2017 г. На основе данных Федеральной службы государственной статистики, ЦИАН, Базы данных показателей муниципальных образований, а также обезличенных данных ЗАГС Москвы были построены карты детской смертности Москвы и Tobit-модели оценки коэффициента смертности в зависимости от социальных характеристик района. Выявлено, что для младшей возрастной группы от 1 до 4 лет наиболее значимым фактором является присмотр родителей, для более старших групп 5-9 лет значимыми становятся показатели дохода и благополучия района. Для подростковых возрастов 10-15 лет помимо дохода значимыми являются уровень преступности в районе и уровень экономического неравенства.
Ceramides: Shared Lipid Biomarkers of Cardiovascular Disease and Schizophrenia
Authors: Tkachev Anna I. , Stekolshchikova Elena A. , Morozova Anna Yu. , Anikanov Nikolay A. , Zorkina Yana A. , Alekseyeva Polina N. , Khobta Elena B. , Andreyuk Denis S. , Zozulya Svetlana A. , Barkhatova Alexandra N. , Klyushnik Tatiana P. , Reznik Alexander M. , Kostyuk Georgiy P. , Khaitovich Philipp E. 
Published: November 2021

INTRODUCTION: Schizophrenia, although a debilitating mental illness, greatly affects individuals physical health as well. One of the leading somatic comorbidities associated with schizophrenia is cardiovascular disease, which has been estimated to be one of the leading causes of excess mortality in patients diagnosed with schizophrenia. Although the shared susceptibility to schizophrenia and cardiovascular disease is well established, the mechanisms linking these two disorders are not well understood. Genetic studies have hinted toward shared lipid metabolism abnormalities co-occurring in the two disorders, while lipid compounds have emerged as prognostic markers for cardiovascular disease. In particular, three ceramide species in the blood plasma, Cer(d18:1/16:0), Cer(d18:1/18:0), and Cer(d18:1/24:1), have been robustly linked to the latter disorder.
AIM: We aimed to assess the differences in abundances of Cer(d18:1/16:0), Cer(d18:1/18:0), and Cer(d18:1/24:1) in the blood plasma of schizophrenia patients compared to healthy controls.
METHODS: We measured the abundances of Cer(d18:1/16:0), Cer(d18:1/18:0), and Cer(d18:1/24:1) in a cohort of 82 patients with schizophrenia and 138 controls without a psychiatric diagnosis and validated the results using an independent cohort of 26 patients with schizophrenia, 55 control individuals, and 19 patients experiencing a first psychotic episode.
RESULTS: We found significant alterations for all three ceramide species Cer(d18:1/16:0), Cer(d18:1/18:0), and Cer(d18:1/24:1) and a particularly strong difference in concentrations between psychiatric patients and controls for the ceramide species Cer(d18:1/18:0).
CONCLUSIONS: The alteration of Cer(d18:1/16:0), Cer(d18:1/18:0), and Cer(d18:1/24:1) levels in the blood plasma might be a manifestation of metabolic abnormalities common to both schizophrenia and cardiovascular disease.
Pemanfaatan obat tradisional di Indonesia: distribusi dan faktor demografis yang berpengaruh
Authors: Adiyasa Mochamad Reiza , Meiyanti Meiyanti 
Published: November 2021

Indonesia merupakan negara yang kaya akan sumber alam dan memiliki lebih dari 400 etnis dan sub etnis yang tersebar di seluruh wilayah Indonesia. Daerah Jawa, Sunda, Manado, Kalimantan, dan berbagai daerah lainnya masih memanfaatkan tanaman sebagai obat tradisional yang merupakan warisan turun temurun. Menurut Badan Pengawas Obat dan Makanan obat tradisional dibagi menjadi 3 kategori, dan digunakan oleh masyarakat secara turun temurun, dengan cara pengolahan yang sederhana. Secara global, rata–rata penggunaan obat tradisional di seluruh dunia adalah 20-28% dari seluruh penduduk dunia. Menurut hasil dari Riset Kesehatan Dasar tahun 2010, ditemukan bahwa prevalensi penduduk Indonesia di atas 15 tahun yang pernah mengonsumsi obat tradisional sebanyak 59.12%, tersebar di berbagai daerah di Indonesia. Obat tradisional banyak digunakan untuk mencegah penyakit dan mengatasi berbagai keluhan penyakit sebagai obat pendamping maupun obat pengganti. Beberapa faktor memengaruhi pemilihan seseorang untuk menggunakan obat tradisional antara lain tingkat pengetahuan. Namun, tingkat pengetahuan seseorang seseorang dapat dipengaruhi oleh faktor lainnya juga seperti pendidikan, informasi/media massa, sosial, budaya, ekonomi, lingkungan, pengalaman, serta usia. Beberapa penelitian menunjukkan adanya hubungan yang bermakna antara tingkat pengetahuan masyarakat mengenai obat tradisional dengan penggunaannya. Namun, masih ada masyarakat yang enggan memilih jamu sebagai obat dikarenakan beberapa faktor lainnya. Oleh karena itu, tinjauan pustaka ini akan membahas mengenai jenis tumbuhan yang digunakan dalam pengobatan tradisional dan faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi pemanfaatannya. Sehingga pemanfaatan obat tradisional sebagai obat penggunaannya dapat meningkat di masyarakat.
Nutrition‐Related Policy Fundamentals for Supporting Older Adults in the Community during a Pandemic: Lessons from COVID‐19
Authors: Whitmire Meredith , Arensberg Mary Beth , Ashbrook Alexandra , Blancato Robert 
Published: November 2021

AbstractNutrition is a key factor supporting healthy aging. Yet during the global COVID‐19 pandemic, issuances of shelter‐in‐place orders, closures of senior centers and other congregate dining locations, losses of income, increases in grocery prices, and other changes have left many older adults struggling to maintain good nutrition. However, there are available solutions to improve the nutrition of millions of older adults who may be challenged to put food on the table. This commentary outlines the problems of older adult malnutrition and food insecurity and their strong correlation with COVID‐19. It summarizes existing federal nutrition programs for older adults, including the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services' Older Americans Act (OAA) nutrition programs and the U.S. Department of Agriculture's means‐tested nutrition programs such as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). The commentary also contains lessons from community‐based OAA nutrition programs that refocused some of their nutrition services and other supportive services during the COVID‐19 pandemic to better serve socially distancing, newly homebound older adults. It explores pre‐ and post‐COVID‐19 policy actions and opportunities for improving the nutrition, health, and well‐being of community‐dwelling older Americans during the current pandemic and beyond, including the need for more federal funding and flexibility for older adult nutrition programs, the need for improvements to older adult access to these programs, and the need for more older adult nutrition screening and intervention.
Myśl teologicznoreligijna Gilberta K. Chestertona
Authors: Gruszczyński Piotr 
Published: November 2021

Celem artykułu jest przedstawienie miejsca chrześcijaństwa pośród religii i ich wzajemnych relacji w myśli G.K. Chestertona, poety, pisarza i apologety chrześcijaństwa. Dzieli on zjawiska religijne według ich treści: Bóg, bogowie, demony i filozofie. Chesterton zauważa obecność jedynego Boga, najczęściej ukrytą, w wielu religiach. Omawiając politeizm szczególną uwagę poświęca mitologiom, widząc w nich nie tyle wynaturzenie religii, ile wyraz artyzmu towarzyszącego religii. Prawdziwym wynaturzeniem religii jest kult demonów, przejawiający się w obrzędach w wielu religiach historycznych, takich jak np. składanie ludzkich ofiar. Czwartym zjawiskiem jest filozofia o charakterze religijnym, charakteryzująca wierzenia Dalekiego Wschodu, takie jak buddyzm i konfucjanizm. Szczególne miejsce w myśli Chestertona zajmuje islam, który powinien być określany nie jako religia, lecz jako odłam chrześcijański o charakterze zbliżonym do arianizmu.
Chesterton mocno akcentuje fakt, iż to, co dobre w zjawiskach religijnych, zostaje zebrane przez chrześcijaństwo, które, opierając się na monoteizmie, nie gasi ducha mitycznych opowieści, a jednocześnie jest najpełniejszą filozofią religijną. Dlatego nie powinno się stawiać chrześcijaństwa na tym samym poziomie, co religie, ale ponad nimi. Myśl Chestertona można jednak z powodzeniem, mimo iż niejednokrotnie ocenia on zjawiska religijne bardzo surowo, wpisać w teologicznoreligijny paradygmat inkluzywizmu, gdyż to właśnie w chrześcijaństwie religie znajdują swoje wypełnienie.
ANALISIS YURIDIS HAK CIPTA YANG DIJADIKAN JAMINAN FIDUSIA BERDASARKAN UNDANG-UNDANG HAK CIPTA DI BANK BTPN [JURIDICAL ANALYSIS OF COPYRIGHTS USED AS FIDUCIARY GUARANTEES BASED ON COPYRIGHT LAWS AT BANK BTPN]
Authors: Citra Adisty , Silaen Chandra 
Published: November 2021

<p><em>The development of the creative industry in Indonesia is a supporting factor for entrepreneurs to increase their working capital in order to develop their business. The increase of capital can be done by applying for a loan from the bank. In accordance with prudential principles in banking, one of the important factors that must be included in credit agreement is collateral. Creative industry players, usually can only provide Intellectual Property Rights (HKI), specifically Copyright, as collateral. Since Copyright is classified as intangible movable object, Copyright can be used as collateral by fiduciary basis. The aim of this research is to review the basis of regulations regarding Copyright as a fiduciary security and its implementation at BTPN. As a normative juridical research, this research is based on the analysis of legal norms, from the Civil Code, Law Number 42 of 1999 concerning Fiduciary, Law Number 28 of 2014 concerning Copyright and any other related regulations. From this research, it can be concluded that further regulations is still required to regulate Copyright as collateral. In addition, an appraisal institution is also needed to ensure that the economic value of Copyright can be used as collateral security with the loan value.<strong></strong></em><strong><em> </em></strong></p><p><strong><em></em></strong><strong>BAHASA INDONESIA ABSTRACT: </strong>Perkembangan industri kreatif di Indonesia menjadi faktor pendorong pelaku usaha untuk meningkatkan modal kerja guna mengembangkan usahanya. Peningkatan modal ini dapat dilakukan dengan cara mengajukan kredit kepada bank. Sesuai dengan prinsip kehati-hatian bank, salah satu faktor penting yang harus ada dalam perjanjian kredit adalah jaminan. Para pelaku industri kreatif biasanya hanya bisa menyerahkan Hak Kekayaan Intelektual (HKI), khususnya Hak Cipta, sebagai jaminan. Karena Hak Cipta tergolong benda bergerak tidak berwujud, maka Hak Cipta dapat dijadikan jaminan fidusia. Penelitian ini ditujukan untuk mengkaji landasan peraturan mengenai Hak Cipta sebagai jaminan fidusia dan implementasinya pada bank BTPN. Sebagai penelitian yuridis normatif, penelitian ini berdasarkan pada analisis norma-norma hukum, yaitu Kitab Undang-Undang Hukum Perdata, Undang-Undang Nomor 42 Tahun 1999 tentang Jaminan Fidusia, Undang-Undang Nomor 28 Tahun 2014 tentang Hak Cipta serta peraturan-peraturan terkait lainnya. Dari penelitian ini dapat disimpulkan bahwa masih dibutuhkan adanya peraturan khusus yang mengatur lebih lanjut mengenai Hak Cipta sebagai jaminan kredit. Selain itu, diperlukan pula lembaga <em>appraisal</em>untuk memastikan nilai ekonomi Hak Cipta dapat digunakan sebagai jaminan kredit secara sepadan dengan nilai utangnya.</p>