Cancer in Iran 2008 to 2025: Recent incidence trends and short‐term predictions of the future burden
Authors: Roshandel Gholamreza , Ferlay Jacques , Ghanbari‐Motlagh Ali , Partovipour Elham , Salavati Fereshteh , Aryan Kimia , Mohammadi Gohar , Khoshaabi Mostafa , Sadjadi Alireza , Davanlou Masoud , Asgari Fereshteh , Abadi Hakimeh , Aghaei Abbas , Ahmadi‐Tabatabaei Seyed‐Vahid , Alizadeh‐Barzian Kazem , Asgari Abbasali , Asgari Noorali , Azami Soheyla , Cheraghi Maria , Enferadi Floria , Eslami‐Nasab Masoumeh , Fakhery Jila , Farahani Mohsen , Farrokhzad Solmaz , Fateh Mansooreh , Ghasemi Ali , Ghasemi‐Kebria Fatemeh , Gholami Hajar , Golpazir Arash , Hasanpour‐Heidari Susan , Hazar Narjes , Hoseini‐Hoshyar Hosein , Izadi Mohsen , Jahantigh Mahdi , Jalilvand Ahmad , Jazayeri Seyed‐Mehrdad , Kazemzadeh Yasan , Khajavi Maryam , Khalednejad Maryam , Khanloghi Marziyeh , Kooshki Maryam , Madani Amineh , Mirheidari Mahdi , Mohammadifar Hosein , Moinfar Zeinab , Mojtahedzadeh Yasaman , Morsali Ali , Motidost‐Komleh Rita , Mousavi Tahereh , Narooei Maboobeh , Nasiri Mohammad , Niksiar Sharareh , Pabaghi Mehdi , Pirnejad Habibollah , Pournajaf Azadeh , Pourshahi Gita , Rahnama Amir , Rashidpoor Bahman , Ravankhah Zahra , Rezaei Khadijeh , Rezaianzadeh Abbas , Sadeghi Gholamreza , Salehifar Mohammad , Shahdadi Athareh , Shahi Mehraban , Sharifi‐Moghaddam Farrokh , Sherafati Roya , Soleimani Ali , Soltany‐hojatabad Maryam , Somi Mohammad‐Hossein , Yadolahi Sohrab , Yaghoubi‐Ashrafi Majid , Zareiyan Aliakbar , Poustchi Hossein , Zendehdel Kazem , Ostovar Afshin , Janbabaei Ghasem , Raeisi Alireza , Weiderpass Elisabete , Malekzadeh Reza , Bray Freddie 
Published: April 2021

AbstractPolicymakers require estimates of the future number of cancer patients in order to allocate finite resources to cancer prevention, treatment and palliative care. We examine recent cancer incidence trends in Iran and present predicted incidence rates and new cases for the entire country for the year 2025. We developed a method for approximating population‐based incidence from the pathology‐based data series available nationally for the years 2008 to 2013, and augmented this with data from the Iranian National Population‐based Cancer Registry (INPCR) for the years 2014 to 2016. We fitted time‐linear age‐period models to the recent incidence trends to quantify the future cancer incidence burden to the year 2025, delineating the contribution of changes due to risk and those due to demographic change. The number of new cancer cases is predicted to increase in Iran from 112 000 recorded cases in 2016 to an estimated 160 000 in 2025, a 42.6% increase, of which 13.9% and 28.7% were attributed to changes in risk and population structure, respectively. In terms of specific cancers, the greatest increases in cases are predicted for thyroid (113.8%), prostate (66.7%), female breast (63.0%) and colorectal cancer (54.1%). Breast, colorectal and stomach cancers were the most common cancers in Iran in 2016 and are predicted to remain the leading cancers nationally in 2025. The increasing trends in incidence of most common cancers in Iran reinforce the need for the tailored design and implementation of effective national cancer control programs across the country.