Climatologia da Chuva em Maceió: Aspectos Climáticos e Ambientais
Authors: Júnior José Francisco de Oliveira , Souza Pedro Henrique de Almeida , Souza Edson de Oliveira , Vanderlei Mário Henrique Guilherme dos santos , Correia Filho Washington Luiz Félix , Santos Carla Taciane Brasil dos , Batista Bárbara Alves , Santiago Dimas de Barros , Gois Givanildo de 
Published: September 2021

O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar os aspectos climáticos e ambientais da chuva em Maceió. Dados de 1979 a 2013 do produto de precipitação CHELSA (Climatologies at High Resolution for the Earth's Land Surface Areas) foram validados pelos dados pluviométricos oriundos da Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA) no período de 1960 a 2016. Os indicadores estatísticos mostraram elevada correlação entre dados CHELSA e observado (R2 = 0,80; r = 0,89) e os menores erros (EPE = 6,58 mm e RMSE = 18,76 mm), portanto o dado do CHELSA pode ser aplicado na região. A série temporal apresentou um período 1 (P1) - (1960 a 1989) com chuvas superiores à média histórica e um período 2 (P2) – (1990 a 2016) com redução significativa da chuva. Dados observados versus as normais climatológicas mostrou uma diminuição significativa na normal 1 (1961-1990) na estação chuvosa, enquanto em relação a normal 2 (1981-2010) houve aumento nos meses de fevereiro, março e abril (entre 10 a 20%) e outubro e dezembro (entre 5 a 15%). A distribuição espacial da chuva mensal via produto CHELSA mostrou a formação de um gradiente pluviométrico entre a costa e parte alta de Maceió. A topografia influencia o regime de chuva nos bairros pertencentes às regiões administrativas - RA (R4, R5 e R6) com maiores registros de chuva. As fases do ENOS são responsáveis diretos na variabilidade da chuva interanual, enquanto a variabilidade decadal correspondeu à mudança de fase da ODP e as alterações no uso e ocupação da terra em Maceió.Climatology of Rainfall in Maceió: Climatic and Environmental Aspects ABSTRACT:The objectives of the study are: i) to evaluate the climatology of rain in Maceió based on observed data, with emphasis on climatic and environmental aspects and ii) to validate the precipitation product for the municipality. Data from 1979 to 2013 of the precipitation product CHELSA (Climatologies at High Resolution for the Earth's Land Surface Areas) were validated by rainfall data from the National Water Agency (NWA) from 1960 to 2016. Statistical indicators showed a high coefficient of determination and linear correlation between CHELSA and observed data (R2 = 0.80; r = 0.89) and the smallest errors (SEE = 6.58 mm and RMSE = 18.76 mm), therefore the CHELSA product can be applied in the region. The time series presented a period 1 (P1) - (1960 to 1989) with rainfall above the historical average and a period 2 (P2) - (1990 to 2016) with a significant reduction in rainfall. Observed data versus climatological normals showed a significant decrease in normal 1 (1961-1990) in the rainy season, while in relation to normal 2 (1981-2010) there was an increase in the months of February, March and April (between 10 to 20%) and October and December (between 5 to 15%). The spatial distribution of monthly rainfall via the CHELSA product showed the formation of a pluviometric gradient between the coast and the upper part of Maceió. The topography influences the rainfall regime in neighborhoods belonging to the administrative regions (AR) - (R4, R5 and R6) with the highest rainfall records. The ENOS phases are directly responsible for the variability of interannual rain, while the decadal variability corresponded to the PDO phase change and changes in land use and occupation in Maceió.Keywords: CHELSA, urban rainfall, urbanization, population density, socio-environmental vulnerability.Climatology of Rainfall in Maceió: Climatic and Environmental Aspects ABSTRACT:The objectives of the study are: i) to evaluate the climatology of rain in Maceió based on observed data, with emphasis on climatic and environmental aspects and ii) to validate the precipitation product for the municipality. Data from 1979 to 2013 of the precipitation product CHELSA (Climatologies at High Resolution for the Earth's Land Surface Areas) were validated by rainfall data from the National Water Agency (NWA) from 1960 to 2016. Statistical indicators showed a high coefficient of determination and linear correlation between CHELSA and observed data (R2 = 0.80; r = 0.89) and the smallest errors (SEE = 6.58 mm and RMSE = 18.76 mm), therefore the CHELSA product can be applied in the region. The time series presented a period 1 (P1) - (1960 to 1989) with rainfall above the historical average and a period 2 (P2) - (1990 to 2016) with a significant reduction in rainfall. Observed data versus climatological normals showed a significant decrease in normal 1 (1961-1990) in the rainy season, while in relation to normal 2 (1981-2010) there was an increase in the months of February, March and April (between 10 to 20%) and October and December (between 5 to 15%). The spatial distribution of monthly rainfall via the CHELSA product showed the formation of a pluviometric gradient between the coast and the upper part of Maceió. The topography influences the rainfall regime in neighborhoods belonging to the administrative regions (AR) - (R4, R5 and R6) with the highest rainfall records. The ENOS phases are directly responsible for the variability of interannual rain, while the decadal variability corresponded to the PDO phase change and changes in land use and occupation in Maceió.Keywords: CHELSA, urban rainfall, urbanization, population density, socio-environmental vulnerability.