bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Data-Driven Prediction of COVID-19 Cases in Germany for Decision Making
Authors: Refisch Lukas , Lorenz Fabian , Riedlinger Torsten , Taubenböck Hannes , Fischer Martina , Grabenhenrich Linus , Wolkewitz Martin , Binder Harald , Kreutz Clemens 
Published: June 2021

AbstractBackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has led to a high interest in mathematical models describing and predicting the diverse aspects and implications of the virus outbreak. Model results represent an important part of the information base for the decision process on different administrative levels. The Robert-Koch-Institute (RKI) initiated a project whose main goal is to predict COVID-19-specific occupation of beds in intensive care units: Steuerungs-Prognose von Intensivmedizinischen COVID-19 Kapazitäten (SPoCK). The incidence of COVID-19 cases is a crucial predictor for this occupation.MethodsWe developed a model based on ordinary differential equations for the COVID-19 spread with a time-dependent infection rate described by a spline. Furthermore, the model explicitly accounts for weekday-specific reporting and adjusts for reporting delay. The model is calibrated in a purely data-driven manner by a maximum likelihood approach. Uncertainties are evaluated using the profile likelihood method. The uncertainty about the appropriate modeling assumptions can be accounted for by including and merging results of different modelling approaches.ResultsThe model is calibrated based on incident cases on a daily basis and provides daily predictions of incident COVID-19 cases for the upcoming three weeks including uncertainty estimates for Germany and its subregions. Derived quantities such as cumulative counts and 7-day incidences with corresponding uncertainties can be computed. The estimation of the time-dependent infection rate leads to an estimated reproduction factor that is oscillating around one. Data-driven estimation of the dark figure purely from incident cases is not feasible.ConclusionsWe successfully implemented a procedure to forecast near future COVID-19 incidences for diverse subregions in Germany which are made available to various decision makers via an interactive web application. Results of the incidence modeling are also used as a predictor for forecasting the need of intensive care units.
Switched forced SEIRDV compartmental models to monitor COVID-19 spread and immunization in Italy
Authors: Antonelli Erminia , Piccolomini Elena Loli , Zama Fabiana 
Published: June 2021

AbstractThis paper presents a new hybrid compartmental model for studying the COVID-19 epidemic evolution in Italy since the beginning of the vaccination campaign started on 2020/12/27 and shows forecasts of the epidemic evolution in Italy. The proposed compartmental model subdivides the population into six compartments and extends the SEIRD model proposed in [E.L.Piccolomini and F.Zama, PLOS ONE, 15(8):1–17, 08 2020] by adding the Vaccinated population and framing the global model as a hybrid-switched dynamical system. Aiming to represent the quantities that characterize the epidemic behaviour from an accurate fit to the observed data, we partition the observation time interval into sub-intervals. The model parameters change according to a switching rule depending on the data behaviour and the infection rate continuity condition. In particular, we study the representation of the infection rate both as linear and exponential piecewise continuous functions. We choose the length of sub-intervals balancing the data fit with the model complexity through the Bayesian Information Criterion. The calibration of the model shows an excellent representation of the epidemic behaviour and thirty days forecasts have proven to reproduce the infection spread reliably. Finally, we discuss different possible forecast scenarios obtained by simulating an increased vaccination rate.
Covid-19 Incidence And Mortality By Age Strata And Comorbidities In Mexico City: A Focus In The Pediatric Population
Authors: González-García Nadia , Castilla-Peón María F , Solórzano Santos Fortino , Juárez Rodolfo Jiménez , Martínez Bustamante Maria Elena , Minero Hibert Miguel Angel , Garduño-Espinosa Juan 
Published: June 2021

AbstractBackgroundSARS-COV2 appears less frequently and less severely in the pediatric population than in the older age groups. There is a need to precisely estimate the specific risks for each age group to design health and education policies suitable for each populationObjectiveThis study aimed to describe the risk of death in SARS-COV2 infected subjects by age group and according to the presence of comorbidities.MethodsWe analyzed data of confirmed SARS-COV2 infection cases where symptoms began between February 22th, 2020, and April 18th, 2021, as published by the General Epidemiology Direction (DGE) of the Mexican Ministry of Health. We calculated COVID-19 incidence and mortality by age group using population data from the Statistics and Population National Institute (INEGI), and estimated the association between risk of death and the presence of comorbidities.ResultsMortality in SARS-COV2 infected people varied considerably, between 7 to 155 deaths per million per year in the under-20 age groups compared to 441 to 15,929 in the older age groups. Mortality in pediatric populations is strongly associated with comorbidities (OR: 4.6-47.9) compared to the milder association for older age groups (OR: 3.16-1.23).ConclusionsThe risk of death from SARS-COV2 infection in children is low and is strongly associated with comorbidities.
Temporal Analysis of Social Determinants Associated with COVID-19 Mortality
Authors: Debopadhaya Shayom , Erickson John S. , Bennett Kristin P. 
Published: June 2021

ABSTRACTThis study examines how social determinants associated with COVID-19 mortality change over time. Using US county-level data from July 5 and December 28, 2020, the effect of 19 high-risk factors on COVID-19 mortality rate was quantified at each time point with negative binomial mixed models. Then, these high-risk factors were used as controls in two association studies between 40 social determinants and COVID-19 mortality rates using data from the same time points. The results indicate that counties with certain ethnic minorities and age groups, immigrants, prevalence of diseases like pediatric asthma and diabetes and cardiovascular disease, socioeconomic inequalities, and higher social association are associated with increased COVID-19 mortality rates. Meanwhile, more mental health providers, access to exercise, higher income, chronic lung disease in adults, suicide, and excessive drinking are associated with decreased mortality. Our temporal analysis also reveals a possible decreasing impact of socioeconomic disadvantage and air quality, and an increasing effect of factors like age, which suggests that public health policies may have been effective in protecting disadvantaged populations over time or that analysis utilizing earlier data may have exaggerated certain effects. Overall, we continue to recognize that social inequality still places disadvantaged groups at risk, and we identify possible relationships between lung disease, mental health, and COVID-19 that need to be explored on a clinical level.CCS CONCEPTSApplied computing → Health informatics.
Expert Opinion on COVID-19 Vaccination and the Use of Cladribine Tablets in Clinical Practice
Authors: Rieckmann Peter , Centonze Diego , Giovannoni Gavin , Hua Le H. , Oreja-Guevara Celia , Selchen Daniel , Soelberg Sørensen Per , Vermersch Patrick , Wiendl Heinz , Salloukh Hashem , Yamout Bassem 
Published: June 2021

AbstractBackgroundGaps in current evidence and guidance leave clinicians with unanswered questions on the use of cladribine tablets for the treatment of multiple sclerosis (MS) in the era of the COVID-19 pandemic, in particular relating to COVID-19 vaccination.ObjectiveWe describe a consensus-based program led by international MS experts with the aim of supplementing current guidelines and treatment labels by providing timely recommendations relating to COVID-19 vaccination and the use of cladribine tablets in clinical practice.MethodsA steering committee (SC) of 10 international MS experts identified seven clinical questions to answer concerning the use of cladribine tablets and COVID-19 vaccination, which addressed issues relating to patient selection, timing and efficacy, and safety. Clinical recommendations to address each question were drafted using available evidence combined with expert opinion from the SC. An extended faculty of 28 MS experts, representing 19 countries, in addition to the 10 SC members, voted on the recommendations. Consensus on recommendations was achieved when ≥75% of respondents expressed an agreement score of 7–9, on a 9-point scale.ResultsConsensus was achieved on all 13 recommendations. Clinical recommendations are provided on whether all patients with MS receiving cladribine tablets should be vaccinated against COVID-19, and whether they should be prioritized; the timing of vaccination around dosing of cladribine tablets (i.e., before and after a treatment course); and the safety of COVID-19 vaccination for these patients.ConclusionsThese expert recommendations provide timely guidance on COVID-19 vaccination in patients receiving cladribine tablets, which is relevant to everyday clinical practice.
Ilioinguinal versus modified Stoppa approach for open reduction and internal fixation of displaced acetabular fractures: A Protocol for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
Authors: Srivastava Amit , Rajnish Rajesh Kumar , Kumar Prasoon , Haq Rehan Ul , Dhammi Ish Kumar 
Published: June 2021

AbstractBackgroundThe fracture of the acetabulum is one of the most challenging fractures to manage and operate for orthopaedic surgeons. To get a good surgical outcome, anatomical reduction of fractures and reconstruction of the joint is of utmost importance. To achieve a good postoperative outcome an appropriate surgical approach is necessary to achieve an anatomical reduction of fractures and fewer complications.ObjectiveThe current review aims to compare the outcomes of the ilioinguinal versus modified Stoppa approach for open reduction and internal fixation (ORIF) of displaced acetabular fractures by analyzing the evidence from the current literature.MethodsA systematic review of the literature will be conducted in accordance with the PRISMA guidelines. The primary searches will be conducted on the Medline (PubMed), Embase, Scopus, and Cochrane Library databases, using a pre-defined search strategy. The studies of any design in the English language will be included which compared the outcomes of the ilioinguinal and modified Stoppa approach for ORIF of displaced acetabular fractures and reported at least one outcome of interest. Studies that do not compare the outcomes of the ilioinguinal and modified Stoppa approach for the treatment of displaced acetabular fractures in adults (>18 years of age), case reports, conference abstracts, posters, book chapters, review articles, biomechanical studies, technical tips, cadaveric studies, and articles not in the English language will be excluded. Both qualitative and quantitative analyses will be done. Qualitative analysis will be done using appropriate tables and diagrams. Wherever feasible, quantitative analysis to be done with the appropriate software. The risk-of-bias assessment will be done using the MINORS tool for the non-randomized comparative studies, and The Cochrane Collaboration’s risk-of-bias tool will be used for randomized control trials.
Investigating phenotypes of pulmonary COVID-19 recovery – a longitudinal observational prospective multicenter trial
Authors: Sonnweber Thomas , Tymoszuk Piotr , Sahanic Sabina , Boehm Anna , Pizzini Alex , Luger Anna , Schwabl Christoph , Nairz Manfred , Kurz Katharina , Koppelstätter Sabine , Aichner Magdalena , Puchner Bernhard , Egger Alexander , Hoermann Gregor , Wöll Ewald , Weiss Günter , Widmann Gerlig , Tancevski Ivan , Löffler-Ragg Judith 
Published: June 2021

AbstractBackgroundCOVID-19 is associated with long-term pulmonary symptoms and may result in chronic pulmonary impairment. The optimal procedures to prevent, identify, monitor, and treat these pulmonary sequelae are elusive.Research questionTo characterize the kinetics of pulmonary recovery, risk factors and constellations of clinical features linked to persisting radiological lung findings after COVID-19.Study design and methodsA longitudinal, prospective, multicenter, observational cohort study including COVID-19 patients (n = 108). Longitudinal pulmonary imaging and functional readouts, symptom prevalence, clinical and laboratory parameters were collected during acute COVID-19 and at 60-, 100- and 180-days follow-up visits. Recovery kinetics and risk factors were investigated by logistic regression. Classification of clinical features and study participants was accomplished by k-means clustering, the k-nearest neighbors (kNN), and naive Bayes algorithms.ResultsAt the six-month follow-up, 51.9% of participants reported persistent symptoms with physical performance impairment (27.8%) and dyspnea (24.1%) being the most frequent. Structural lung abnormalities were still present in 45.4% of the collective, ranging from 12% in the outpatients to 78% in the subjects treated at the ICU during acute infection. The strongest risk factors of persisting lung findings were elevated interleukin-6 (IL6) and C-reactive protein (CRP) during recovery and hospitalization during acute COVID-19. Clustering analysis revealed association of the lung lesions with increased anti-S1/S2 antibody, IL6, CRP, and D-dimer levels at the early follow-up suggesting non-resolving inflammation as a mechanism of the perturbed recovery.Finally, we demonstrate the robustness of risk class assignment and prediction of individual risk of delayed lung recovery employing clustering and machine learning algorithms.InterpretationSeverity of acute infection, and systemic inflammation is strongly linked to persistent post-COVID-19 lung abnormality. Automated screening of multi-parameter health record data may assist the identification of patients at risk of delayed pulmonary recovery and optimize COVID-19 follow-up management.Clinical Trial RegistrationClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04416100
Network analysis shows decreased ipsilesional structural connectivity in glioma patients
Authors: Fekonja Lucius S. , Wang Ziqian , Cacciola Alberto , Roine Timo , Aydogan D. Baran , Mewes Darius , Vellmer Sebastian , Vajkoczy Peter , Picht Thomas 
Published: June 2021

AbstractGliomas that infiltrate networks and systems, such as the motor system, often lead to substantial functional impairment in multiple systems. Network-based statistics (NBS) allow to assess local network differences (1) and graph theoretical analyses (2) enable investigation of global and local network properties. Here, we used network measures to characterize glioma-related decreases in structural connectivity by comparing the ipsi- with the contralesional hemispheres of patients and correlated findings with neurological assessment.We found that lesion location resulted in differential impairment of both short and long connectivity patterns. Network analysis showed reduced global and local efficiency in the ipsilesional hemisphere compared to the contralesional hemispheric networks. In network science, reduced global and local efficiency reflect the impairment of information transfer across different regions of a network.One-Sentence SummaryNetwork analyses show glioma-related decreased ipsilesional structural connectivity and correlates with neurological status.
Multi-centre post-implementation evaluation of SARS-CoV-2 antigen-based point of care tests used for asymptomatic screening of continuing care healthcare workers
Authors: Kanji Jamil N , Proctor Dustin T , Stokes William , Berenger Byron M , Silvius James , Tipples Graham , Joffe A Mark , Venner Allison A 
Published: June 2021

AbstractOBJECTIVESFrequent screening of SARS-CoV-2 among asymptomatic populations using antigen-based point of care tests (APOCT) is occurring globally with limited clinical performance data. The positive predictive value (PPV) of two APOCT used in the asymptomatic screening of SARS-CoV-2 among healthcare workers (HCW) at continuing care (CC) sites across Alberta, Canada was evaluated.METHODSBetween February 22 and May 2, 2021, CC sites implemented SARS-CoV-2 voluntary screening of their asymptomatic HCW. Onsite testing with Abbott Panbio or BD Veritor occurred on a weekly or twice weekly basis. Positive APOCT were confirmed with a real-time reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) reference method.RESULTSA total of 71,847 APOCT (17,689 Veritor and 54,158 Panbio) were performed among 369 CC sites. Eighty-seven (0.12%) APOCT were positive, of which 39 (0.05%) confirmed as true positives using rRT-PCR. Use of the Veritor and Panbio resulted in a 76.6% and 30.0% false positive detection, respectively (p<0.001). This corresponded to a 23.4% and 70.0% PPV for the Veritor and Panbio, respectively.CONCLUSIONSFrequent screening of SARS-CoV-2 among asymptomatic HCW in CC, using APOCT, resulted in a very low detection rate and a high detection of false positives. Careful assessment between the risks vs benefits of APOCT programs in this population needs to be thoroughly considered before implementation.
Inflection in prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infections missing the N501Y mutation as a marker of rapid Delta (B.1.617.2) lineage expansion in Ontario, Canada
Authors: Brown Kevin A. , Joh Eugene , Buchan Sarah A. , Daneman Nick , Mishra Sharmistha , Patel Samir , Day Troy 
Published: June 2021

AbstractBackgroundThe severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Delta lineage (B.1.617.2) was implicated in the SARS-CoV-2 surge in India. We sought to describe the rapid expansion of the Delta lineage in Ontario, Canada (population 15 million) using mutation profile information and confirmatory whole genome sequencing.MethodsAll laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases reported to Public Health Ontario between April 1st and June 12th 2021, with cycle threshold values ≤35, were eligible for screening for the N501Y and the E484K mutations. We classified cases via mutation screening as: (1) N501Y-/E484K- (wild-type/Delta), (2) Alpha (N501Y+/E484K-), (3) Beta/Gamma (N501Y+/E484K+), or (4) N501Y-/E484K+ (predominantly B.1.525, and B.1.1.318).ResultsThe N501Y-/E484K- mutation profile went from having a 29% transmission deficit relative to Alpha (relative Re = 0.71, 95%CI: 0.64, 0.77) on April 1st to having a 50% transmission advantage on June 12th (relative Re = 1.50, 95%CI: 1.31, 1.71). Whole genome sequencing of N501Y-/E484K-cases (N=583) confirmed that the pattern of increasing relative reproduction number coincided with the replacement of wild-type with Delta variant (from 2.2% in early April, to 83% in late May).DiscussionDelta is rapidly overtaking other SARS-CoV-2 variants in Ontario, and has a substantial transmission advantage. An inflection in the proportion of cases missing the N501Y mutation from rapidly decreasing to rapidly increasing,3 may be an early warning signal for Delta lineage expansion.
Examining the epigenetic mechanisms of childhood adversity and sensitive periods: a gene set-based approach
Authors: Zhu Yiwen , Lussier Alexandre A. , Smith Andrew D.A.C. , Simpkin Andrew J. , Suderman Matthew J. , Walton Esther , Dunn Erin C. 
Published: June 2021

AbstractBackgroundSensitive periods are developmental stages of heightened plasticity when exposure to childhood adversity may exert lasting impacts. A few biological pathways are known to play key roles in regulating sensitive period plasticity across brain development. Epigenetic mechanisms including DNA methylation (DNAm) may provide a means through which life experiences during sensitive periods induce long-term biological changes. In the current study, we investigated the possibility that adversity during sensitive periods led to DNAm changes in genes that regulate the timing and duration of sensitive periods in development.MethodsUsing childhood adversity data and genome-wide DNAm profiles from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (n=785), we summarized DNAm variation of CpG sites in the promoters of genes regulating sensitive periods with the first two principal components (PCs). DNAm summaries were calculated for genes regulating sensitive period opening (ngenes=15), closing (ngenes=36), and expression/duration (ngenes=8). We then performed linear discriminant analysis to test associations between these DNAm summaries and the timing of exposure to seven types of adversity.ResultsSexual or physical abuse and financial hardship during middle childhood (6-7 years) were associated with DNAm of genes regulating the onset and duration of sensitive periods. Sensitivity analyses assessing the presence of any exposure before age 7 and a composite measure of adversity yielded fewer signals, highlighting the importance of accounting for timing and adversity type.ConclusionsWith our novel gene set-based approach, we have uncovered suggestive evidence that epigenetic regulation of developmental plasticity may be affected by early life adversity. The complementarity of our gene-level view of the epigenome to the more common and granular epigenome-wide association study may yield novel mechanistic insights not only for adversity but also for other exposures and outcomes.
Long term positivity of SARS-CoV-2 total immunoglobulins in convalescent plasma and blood donors
Authors: Martín M Carmen , Jimenez Ana , Ortega Nuria , Parrado Alba , Page Isabel , González M Isabel , Blanco-Peris Lydia 
Published: June 2021

AbstractBackgroundOne of the most questioned issues about SARS-CoV2 immunity is how long does it last. Whether lasting differences exist between infection and vaccination boosted immunity is yet to be known. The answer to this question will determine key issues such as the reliability of individual and herd immunity or the need of sanitary restrictions or periodical revaccination. The aim of this study was to determine how long total anti SARS-CoV2 antibodies due to past infection persist in peripheral blood and whether sex, age or haematological features can influence their lasting.Material and MethodsA total of 2432 donations SARS-CoV-2 from 662 repeat donors from April 2020 to February 2021 were analysed. Donors were 69.7% males and their average age was 46. An automated chemilumiscence immunoassay for total antibodies recognizing N protein of SARS-CoV-2 in human serum and plasma was performed.Results and discussionIn 97.6% donors with follow-up, anti SARS-CoV-2 protein N total antibodies remained positive up to 46 weeks after first positive determination. Blood group was not related to antibody waning. Lower lymphocyte counts and higher neutrophils and as well higher seric IgA would help predict future negativization of antibodies. The vast majority of donors keep their total immunoglobulins anti SARS-CoV-2 positive for longer than 10 months. Ageing might have a protective effect against antibody waning but, given the small number of cases that become negative, more studies, or larger cohorts would be needed to confirm these facts.