The Impact of a Night Travel Ban Policy on Road Traffic Accidents: Interrupted Time Series evidence in Zambia
Authors: Moonga M Kantu , Hangoma Peter 
Published: February 2021

ABSTRACTThe burden of road traffic accidents has been increasing globally with Injuries and deaths from road traffic accidents accounting for a significant share of the global disease burden. This is evident especially in low and middle income countries (LMICs), were these injuries and deaths account for a reasonable share of the disease burden. In Zambia, for example, road traffic accidents are the third leading cause of death after HIV/AIDS and Malaria and more than half of these accidents happen at night. To reverse the growing incidence of road crushes, the government of Zambia put a ban on night travel for public service vehicles in November, 2016. While other countries such as Kenya have implemented similar bans, there is no evidence on the extent to which such a ban may reduce accidents.Objectiveto examine the effect of the night travel ban on road traffic accidents in Zambia after the implementation of the night travel ban. The study set out to established whether there was a change in the number of accidents.Designthe study design was a single group interrupted time series analysis. Administrative data on road traffic accidents in Zambia for the period 1964 to 2018 was used.Settingthis research was a national study, therefore it encompassed national statistics on road accidents of the entire country of Zambia.Main outcome measureThe total counts of road traffic accidents in Zambia recorded during the study period 1964 to 2018.Resultsit was found that the night travel ban reduced the number of road crushes by 1,211 within one year of implementing the intervention. (p value 0.001, CI −1878.079 to −543.130).Conclusionthe night travel ban may be an effective way of reducing the burden of road traffic injuries in Zambia and other LMICs.Section 1: What is already known on this topicIn Zambia, there is a high number of road traffic accidents that occur during the night compared to the day time (fisa et al, 2019, ikabungo 2015 and patel 1979).Interventions have been put in place to reduce the number of accidents but there is no evidence of their effectiveness.In light of the lack of evidence of such interventions, the study was carried out to provide evidence to policy makers so that their decisions can be evidence based.Section 2: what the study addsOur study suggests that the policy proved to be effective in reducing the total number of accidents in Zambia.This study provides evidence of the effectiveness of an intervention which in turn provides policy makers with grounds on which to maintain such a policy.The study triggers further research on other effects of banning night time travelCopyright/licence for publicationThe Corresponding Author has the right to grant on behalf of all authors and does grant on behalf of all authors, a worldwide licence to the Publishers and its licensees in perpetuity, in all forms, formats and media (whether known now or created in the future), to i) publish, reproduce, distribute, display and store the Contribution, ii) translate the Contribution into other languages, create adaptations, reprints, include within collections and create summaries, extracts and/or, abstracts of the Contribution, iii) create any other derivative work(s) based on the Contribution, iv) to exploit all subsidiary rights in the Contribution, v) the inclusion of electronic links from the Contribution to third party material where- ever it may be located; and, vi) licence any third party to do any or all of the above.”