bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Social information use and social information waste
Authors: Morin Olivier , Jacquet Pierre Olivier , Vaesen Krist , Acerbi Alberto 
Published: May 2021

Social information is immensely valuable. Yet we waste it. The information we get from observing other humans and from communicating with them is a cheap and reliable informational resource. It is considered the backbone of human cultural evolution. Theories and models focused on the evolution of social learning show the great adaptive benefits of evolving cognitive tools to process it. In spite of this, human adults in the experimental literature use social information quite inefficiently: they do not take it sufficiently into account. A comprehensive review of the literature on five experimental tasks documented 45 studies showing social information waste, and four studies showing social information being over-used. These studies cover ‘egocentric discounting’ phenomena as studied by social psychology, but also include experimental social learning studies. Social information waste means that human adults fail to give social information its optimal weight. Both proximal explanations and accounts derived from evolutionary theory leave crucial aspects of the phenomenon unaccounted for: egocentric discounting is a pervasive effect that no single unifying explanation fully captures. Cultural evolutionary theory's insistence on the power and benefits of social influence is to be balanced against this phenomenon.
This article is part of the theme issue ‘Foundations of cultural evolution’.
The uses and abuses of tree thinking in cultural evolution
Authors: Evans Cara L. , Greenhill Simon J. , Watts Joseph , List Johann-Mattis , Botero Carlos A. , Gray Russell D. , Kirby Kathryn R. 
Published: May 2021

Modern phylogenetic methods are increasingly being used to address questions about macro-level patterns in cultural evolution. These methods can illuminate the unobservable histories of cultural traits and identify the evolutionary drivers of trait change over time, but their application is not without pitfalls. Here, we outline the current scope of research in cultural tree thinking, highlighting a toolkit of best practices to navigate and avoid the pitfalls and ‘abuses' associated with their application. We emphasize two principles that support the appropriate application of phylogenetic methodologies in cross-cultural research: researchers should (1) draw on multiple lines of evidence when deciding if and which types of phylogenetic methods and models are suitable for their cross-cultural data, and (2) carefully consider how different cultural traits might have different evolutionary histories across space and time. When used appropriately phylogenetic methods can provide powerful insights into the processes of evolutionary change that have shaped the broad patterns of human history.
This article is part of the theme issue ‘Foundations of cultural evolution'.
The potential to infer the historical pattern of cultural macroevolution
Authors: Lukas Dieter , Towner Mary , Borgerhoff Mulder Monique 
Published: May 2021

Phylogenetic analyses increasingly take centre-stage in our understanding of the processes shaping patterns of cultural diversity and cultural evolution over time. Just as biologists explain the origins and maintenance of trait differences among organisms using phylogenetic methods, so anthropologists studying cultural macroevolutionary processes use phylogenetic methods to uncover the history of human populations and the dynamics of culturally transmitted traits. In this paper, we revisit concerns with the validity of these methods. Specifically, we use simulations to reveal how properties of the sample (size, missing data), properties of the tree (shape) and properties of the traits (rate of change, number of variants, transmission mode) might influence the inferences that can be drawn about trait distributions across a given phylogeny and the power to discern alternative histories. Our approach shows that in two example datasets specific combinations of properties of the sample, of the tree and of the trait can lead to potentially high rates of Type I and Type II errors. We offer this simulation tool to help assess the potential impact of this list of persistent perils in future cultural macroevolutionary work.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Foundations of cultural evolution’.
Historical, archaeological and linguistic evidence test the phylogenetic inference of Viking-Age plant use
Authors: Teixidor-Toneu Irene , Kool Anneleen , Greenhill Simon J. , Kjesrud Karoline , Sandstedt Jade J. , Manzanilla Vincent , Jordan Fiona M. 
Published: May 2021

In this paper, past plant knowledge serves as a case study to highlight the promise and challenges of interdisciplinary data collection and interpretation in cultural evolution. Plants are central to human life and yet, apart from the role of major crops, people–plant relations have been marginal to the study of culture. Archaeological, linguistic, and historical evidence are often limited when it comes to studying the past role of plants. This is the case in the Nordic countries, where extensive collections of various plant use records are absent until the 1700s. Here, we test if relatively recent ethnobotanical data can be used to trace back ancient plant knowledge in the Nordic countries. Phylogenetic inferences of ancestral states are evaluated against historical, linguistic, and archaeobotanical evidence. The exercise allows us to discuss the opportunities and shortcomings of using phylogenetic comparative methods to study past botanical knowledge. We propose a ‘triangulation method’ that not only combines multiple lines of evidence, but also quantitative and qualitative approaches.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Foundations of cultural evolution’.
Underappreciated features of cultural evolution
Authors: Smolla Marco , Jansson Fredrik , Lehmann Laurent , Houkes Wybo , Weissing Franz J. , Hammerstein Peter , Dall Sasha R. X. , Kuijper Bram , Enquist Magnus 
Published: May 2021

Cultural evolution theory has long been inspired by evolutionary biology. Conceptual analogies between biological and cultural evolution have led to the adoption of a range of formal theoretical approaches from population dynamics and genetics. However, this has resulted in a research programme with a strong focus on cultural transmission. Here, we contrast biological with cultural evolution, and highlight aspects of cultural evolution that have not received sufficient attention previously. We outline possible implications for evolutionary dynamics and argue that not taking them into account will limit our understanding of cultural systems. We propose 12 key questions for future research, among which are calls to improve our understanding of the combinatorial properties of cultural innovation, and the role of development and life history in cultural dynamics. Finally, we discuss how this vibrant research field can make progress by embracing its multidisciplinary nature.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Foundations of cultural evolution’.
Missing data matters in participatory syndromic surveillance systems: comparative evaluation of missing data methods when estimating disease burden
Authors: Baltrusaitis Kristin , Dalton Craig , Carlson Sandra , White Laura F. 
Published: May 2021

ABSTRACTIntroductionTraditional surveillance methods have been enhanced by the emergence of online participatory syndromic surveillance systems that collect health-related digital data. These systems have many applications including tracking weekly prevalence of Influenza-Like Illness (ILI), predicting probable infection of Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19), and determining risk factors of ILI and COVID-19. However, not every volunteer consistently completes surveys. In this study, we assess how different missing data methods affect estimates of ILI burden using data from FluTracking, a participatory surveillance system in Australia.MethodsWe estimate the incidence rate, the incidence proportion, and weekly prevalence using five missing data methods: available case, complete case, assume missing is non-ILI, multiple imputation (MI), and delta (δ) MI, which is a flexible and transparent method to impute missing data under Missing Not at Random (MNAR) assumptions. We evaluate these methods using simulated and FluTracking data.ResultsOur simulations show that the optimal missing data method depends on the measure of ILI burden and the underlying missingness model. Of note, the δ-MI method provides estimates of ILI burden that are similar to the true parameter under MNAR models. When we apply these methods to FluTracking, we find that the δ-MI method accurately predicted complete, end of season weekly prevalence estimates from real-time data.ConclusionMissing data is an important problem in participatory surveillance systems. Here, we show that accounting for missingness using statistical approaches leads to different inferences from the data.
Identification of translocation inhibitors targeting the type III secretion system of enteropathogenic Escherichia coli
Authors: Mühlen Sabrina , Zapol’skii Viktor A. , Bilitewski Ursula , Dersch Petra 
Published: May 2021

ABSTRACTInfections with enteropathogenic E. coli (EPEC) cause severe diarrhea in children. The non-invasive bacteria adhere to enterocytes of the small intestine and use a type III secretion system (T3SS) to inject effector proteins into host cells to modify and exploit cellular processes in favor of bacterial survival and replication. Several studies have shown that the T3SSs of bacterial pathogens are essential for virulence. Furthermore, the loss of T3SS-mediated effector translocation results in increased immune recognition and clearance of the bacteria. The T3SS is, therefore, considered a promising target for antivirulence strategies and novel therapeutics development. Here, we report the results of a high-throughput screening assay based on the translocation of the EPEC effector protein Tir. Using this assay, we screened more than 13,000 small molecular compounds of six different compound libraries and identified three substances which showed a significant dose-dependent effect on translocation without adverse effects on bacterial or eukaryotic cell viability. Additionally, these substances reduced bacterial binding to host cells, effector-dependent cell detachment and abolished A/E lesion formation without affecting the expression of components of the T3SS or associated effector proteins. Moreover, no effects of the inhibitors on bacterial motility or Shiga-toxin expression were observed. In summary, we have identified three new compounds that strongly inhibit T3SS-mediated translocation of effectors into mammalian cells, which could be valuable as lead substances for treating EPEC and EHEC infections.
Determinants and trends of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and vaccine uptake in a national cohort of U.S. adults: A longitudinal study
Authors: Rane Madhura S. , Kochhar Shivani , Poehlein Emily , You William , Robertson McKaylee M. , Zimba Rebecca , Westmoreland Drew A. , Romo Matthew L. , Kulkarni Sarah G. , Chang Mindy , Berry Amanda , Parcesepe Angela M. , Maroko Andrew R. , Grov Christian , Nash Denis ,   the CHASING COVID Cohort Study Team
Published: May 2021

AbstractWe estimated the trends and correlates of vaccine hesitancy, and its association with subsequent vaccine uptake among 5,458 adults in the United States. Participants belonged to the CHASING COVID Cohort, a national longitudinal study. Trends and correlates of vaccine hesitancy were examined longitudinally in eight interview rounds from October 2020 to July 2021. We also estimated the association between willingness to vaccinate and subsequent vaccine uptake through July 2021. Vaccine delay and refusal decreased from 51% and 8% in October 2020 to 8% and 6% in July 2021, respectively. Compared to Non-Hispanic (NH) White participants, NH Black and Hispanic participants had higher adjusted odds ratios (aOR) for both vaccine delay (aOR: 2.0 [95% CI: 1.5, 2.7] for NH Black and 1.3 [95% CI: 1.0, 1.7] for Hispanic) and vaccine refusal (aOR: 2.5 [95% CI: 1.8, 3.6] for NH Black and 1.4 [95% CI: 1.0, 2.0] for Hispanic) in June 2021. COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy was associated with lower odds of subsequent vaccine uptake (aOR: 0.15, 95% CI: 0.13, 0.18 for vaccine-delayers and aOR: 0.02; 95% CI: 0.01, 0.03 for vaccine-refusers compared to vaccine-willing participants), adjusted for sociodemographic factors and COVID-19 history. Vaccination awareness and distribution efforts should focus on vaccine delayers.
Bayesian Model Averaging to Account for Model Uncertainty in Estimates of a Vaccine’s Effectiveness
Authors: Oliveira Carlos R , Shapiro Eugene D , Weinberger Daniel M 
Published: May 2021

AbstractVaccine effectiveness (VE) studies are often conducted after the introduction of new vaccines to ensure they provide protection in real-world settings. Although susceptible to confounding, the test-negative case-control study design is the most efficient method to assess VE post-licensure. Control of confounding is often needed during the analyses, which is most efficiently done through multivariable modeling. When a large number of potential confounders are being considered, it can be challenging to know which variables need to be included in the final model. This paper highlights the importance of considering model uncertainty by re-analyzing a Lyme VE study using several confounder selection methods. We propose an intuitive Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) framework for this task and compare the performance of BMA to that of traditional single-best-model-selection methods. We demonstrate how BMA can be advantageous in situations when there is uncertainty about model selection by systematically considering alternative models and increasing transparency.
SARS-CoV-2 testing strategies to contain school-associated transmission: model-based analysis of impact and cost of diagnostic testing, screening, and surveillance
Authors: Bilinski Alyssa , Ciaranello Andrea , Fitzpatrick Meagan C. , Giardina John , Shah Maunank , Salomon Joshua A. , Kendall Emily A. 
Published: May 2021

AbstractBackgroundIn March 2021, the Biden administration allocated $10 billion for COVID-19 testing in schools. We evaluate the costs and benefits of testing strategies to reduce the infection risks of full-time in-person K-8 education at different levels of community incidence.MethodsWe used an agent-based network model to simulate transmission in elementary and middle school communities, parameterized to a US school structure and assuming dominance of the delta COVID-19 variant. We assess the value of different strategies for testing students and faculty/staff, including expanded diagnostic testing (“test to stay” policies that take the place of isolation for symptomatic students or quarantine for exposed classrooms); screening (routinely testing asymptomatic individuals to identify infections and contain transmission); and surveillance (testing a random sample of students to signaling undetected transmission and trigger additional investigation or interventions).Main outcome measuresWe project 30-day cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection; proportion of cases detected; proportion of planned and unplanned days out of school; and the cost of testing programs and of childcare costs associated with different strategies. For screening policies, we further estimate cost per SARS-CoV-2 infection averted in students and staff, and for surveillance, probability of correctly or falsely triggering an outbreak response at different incidence and attack rates.ResultsAccounting for programmatic and childcare costs, “test to stay” policies achieve similar model-projected transmission to quarantine policies, with reduced overall costs. Weekly universal screening prevents approximately 50% of in-school transmission, with a lower projected societal cost than hybrid or remote schooling. The cost per infection averted in students and staff by weekly screening is lower for older students and schools with higher mitigation and declines as community transmission rises. In settings where local student incidence is unknown or rapidly changing, surveillance may trigger detection of moderate-to-large in-school outbreaks with fewer resources compared to screening.Conclusions“Test to stay” policies and/or screening tests can facilitate consistent in-person school attendance with low transmission risk across a range of community incidence. Surveillance may be a useful reduced-cost option for detecting outbreaks and identifying school environments that may benefit from increased mitigation.
Effect of physical inactivity and tobacco use on mortality and morbidity in revascularized patients with peripheral arterial disease: A nationwide cohort study
Authors: Cha Seungwoo , Grace Sherry L , Han Kyungdo , Kim Bongseong , Paik Nam-Jong , Kim Won-Seok 
Published: May 2021

AbstractImportancePhysical activity (PA) and tobacco use are key health behaviours in patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD). Limited studies are available on effects of those behaviours in PAD after revascularization, including Asian countries where tobacco use is high.ObjectiveTo investigate the effects of PA and tobacco use on adverse clinical outcomes in patients with PAD after revascularization.DesignRetrospective cohort studySettingPopulation-based study using the Korean National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) databaseParticipantsPatients who had received revascularization for PAD between 2010-2015 were included. They were categorized as active or inactive based on the number of days per week they engaged in PA and as current or non-tobacco users (self-report).ExposuresPA and tobacco use.Main outcomesThe primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes included major adverse outcome (a composite of all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, and stroke) and major adverse limb event (MALE, a composite of amputation and recurrent revascularization).ResultsThe cohort comprised 8324 patients (mean age, 64.7 years; 76.9% male). Among them, 32.7% were inactive and 26.4% were tobacco users. Active patients had significantly better outcomes than inactive patients [all-cause mortality adjusted hazard ratio (adjHR) = 0.766 (0.685 – 0.855), major adverse outcome adjHR = 0.795 (0.719 – 0.878), MALE adjHR = 0.858 (0.773 – 0.953)]. Tobacco users had significantly poorer outcomes than non-users [all-cause mortality adjHR = 1.279 (1.124 – 1.456), major adverse outcome adjHR = 1.263 (1.124 – 1.418), MALE adjHR = 1.291 (1.143 – 1.458)].Conclusions and RelevanceEven after receiving revascularization for PAD, a sizable proportion of patients were inactive and used tobacco, leading to adverse clinical outcomes. These modifiable risk factors are systematically addressed in cardiac rehabilitation; in line with current guideline recommendations, more needs to be done to ensure cardiac rehabilitation participation in patients with PAD.
A Predictive Modelling Framework for COVID-19 Transmission to Inform the Management of Mass Events
Authors: Donnat Claire , Bunbury Freddy , Kreindler Jack , Filippidis Filippos T. , El-Osta Austen , Esko Tõnu , Harris Matthew 
Published: May 2021

AbstractModelling COVID-19 transmission at live events and public gatherings is essential to evaluate and control the probability of subsequent outbreaks. Model estimates can be used to inform event organizers about the possibility of super-spreading and the predicted efficacy of safety protocols, as well as to communicate to participants their personalised risk so that they may choose whether to attend. Yet, despite the fast-growing body of literature on COVID transmission dynamics, current risk models either neglect contextual information on vaccination rates or disease prevalence or do not attempt to quantitatively model transmission, thus limiting their potential to provide insightful estimates. This paper attempts to bridge this gap by providing informative risk metrics for live public events, along with a measure of their associated uncertainty. Starting with a thorough review of the literature and building upon existing models, our approach ties together three main components: (a) reliable modelling of the number of infectious cases at the time of the event, (b) evaluation of the efficiency of pre-event screening and risk mitigation protocols, and (c) modelling the transmission dynamics during the event. We demonstrate how uncertainty in the input parameters can be included in the model using Monte Carlo simulations. We discuss the underlying assumptions and limitations of our approach and implications for policy around live events management.
Adherence and sustainability of interventions informing optimal control against COVID-19 pandemic
Authors: Di Domenico Laura , Sabbatini Chiara E. , Boëlle Pierre-Yves , Poletto Chiara , Crépey Pascal , Paireau Juliette , Cauchemez Simon , Beck François , Noel Harold , Lévy-Bruhl Daniel , Colizza Vittoria 
Published: May 2021

AbstractAfter one year of stop-and-go COVID-19 mitigation, some European countries still experience sustained viral circulation due to the B.1.1.7 variant. As the prospect of phasing out this stage through vaccination draws closer, it is critical to balance the efficacy of long-lasting interventions and their impact on the quality of life. Focusing on the current situation in France, we show that moderate interventions require a much longer time to achieve the same result as high intensity lockdowns, with the additional risk of deteriorating control as adherence wanes. Integrating intensity and duration of social distancing in a data-driven “distress” index, we show that shorter strict lockdowns are largely more performant than longer moderate lockdowns, for similar intermediate distress and infringement on individual freedom. Our study shows that favoring milder interventions over more stringent short approaches on the basis of perceived acceptability could be detrimental in the long term, especially with waning adherence.
Risk of COVID-19 variant importation – How useful are travel control measures?
Authors: Arino Julien , Boëlle Pierre-Yves , Milliken Evan , Portet Stéphanie 
Published: May 2021

AbstractWe consider models for the importation of a new variant COVID-19 strain in a location already seeing propagation of a resident variant. By distinguishing contaminations generated by imported cases from those originating in the community, we are able to evaluate the contribution of importations to the dynamics of the disease in a community. We find that after an initial seeding, the role of importations becomes marginal compared to that of community-based propagation. We also evaluate the role of two travel control measures, quarantine and travel interruptions. We conclude that quarantine is an efficacious way of lowering importation rates, while travel interruptions have the potential to delay the consequences of importations but need to be applied within a very tight time window following the initial emergence of the variant.