Toward Personalized Web-Based Cognitive Rehabilitation for Patients With Ischemic Stroke: Elo Rating Approach
Authors: Garcia-Rudolph Alejandro , Opisso Eloy , Tormos Jose M , Madai Vince Istvan , Frey Dietmar , Becerra Helard , Kelleher John D , Bernabeu Guitart Montserrat , López Jaume 
Published: May 2021

Background
Stroke is a worldwide cause of disability; 40% of stroke survivors sustain cognitive impairments, most of them following inpatient rehabilitation at specialized clinical centers. Web-based cognitive rehabilitation tasks are extensively used in clinical settings. The impact of task execution depends on the ratio between the skills of the treated patient and the challenges imposed by the task itself. Thus, treatment personalization requires a trade-off between patients’ skills and task difficulties, which is still an open issue. In this study, we propose Elo ratings to support clinicians in tasks assignations and representing patients’ skills to optimize rehabilitation outcomes.

Objective
This study aims to stratify patients with ischemic stroke at an early stage of rehabilitation into three levels according to their Elo rating; to show the relationships between the Elo rating levels, task difficulty levels, and rehabilitation outcomes; and to determine if the Elo rating obtained at early stages of rehabilitation is a significant predictor of rehabilitation outcomes.

Methods
The PlayerRatings R library was used to obtain the Elo rating for each patient. Working memory was assessed using the DIGITS subtest of the Barcelona test, and the Rey Auditory Verbal Memory Test (RAVLT) was used to assess verbal memory. Three subtests of RAVLT were used: RAVLT learning (RAVLT075), free-recall memory (RAVLT015), and recognition (RAVLT015R). Memory predictors were identified using forward stepwise selection to add covariates to the models, which were evaluated by assessing discrimination using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for logistic regressions and adjusted R2 for linear regressions.

Results
Three Elo levels (low, middle, and high) with the same number of patients (n=96) in each Elo group were obtained using the 50 initial task executions (from a total of 38,177) for N=288 adult patients consecutively admitted for inpatient rehabilitation in a clinical setting. The mid-Elo level showed the highest proportions of patients that improved in all four memory items: 56% (54/96) of them improved in DIGITS, 67% (64/96) in RAVLT075, 58% (56/96) in RAVLT015, and 53% (51/96) in RAVLT015R (P<.001). The proportions of patients from the mid-Elo level that performed tasks at difficulty levels 1, 2, and 3 were 32.1% (3997/12,449), 31.% (3997/12,449), and 36.9% (4595/12,449), respectively (P<.001), showing the highest match between skills (represented by Elo level) and task difficulties, considering the set of 38,177 task executions. Elo ratings were significant predictors in three of the four models and quasi-significant in the fourth. When predicting RAVLT075 and DIGITS at discharge, we obtained R2=0.54 and 0.43, respectively; meanwhile, we obtained AUC=0.73 (95% CI 0.64-0.82) and AUC=0.81 (95% CI 0.72-0.89) in RAVLT075 and DIGITS improvement predictions, respectively.

Conclusions
Elo ratings can support clinicians in early rehabilitation stages in identifying cognitive profiles to be used for assigning task difficulty levels.