Prediction and Management of Strangulated Bowel Obstruction: A Multiomics Model Analysis
Authors: Xu Wei-xuan , Zhong Qi-hong , Cai Yong , Zhan Can-hong , Chen Shuai , Wang Hui , Lin Lin , Geng Ying-qian , Hou Ping , Chen Xian-qiang , Zhang junrong 
Published: October 2021

Abstract
BackgroundDistinguishing strangulated bowel obstruction (StBO) from simple bowel obstruction (SiBO) still poses a challenge for emergency surgeons. We aimed to construct a predictive model that could distinctly discriminate StBO from SiBO based on the degree of bowel ischemia.MethodsA total of 281 patients diagnosed with intestinal obstruction were enrolled. According to pathological confirmation, patients were divided into a simple bowel obstruction (SiBO, n=236) group and a strangulated bowel obstruction (StBO, n=45) group. The clinical characteristics, laboratory tests and radiomics were compared between the groups via univariate analysis. Binary logistic regression was applied to identify independent risk factors, and then predictive models based on radiomics and multiomics models were constructed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the area under the curve (AUC) were calculated to assess the accuracy of the predicted models. Finally, via stratification analysis, we validated the multiomics model in the prediction of transmural necrosis. ResultsOf the 281 patients with SBO, 45 (16.0%) were found to have StBO, while 236(84.0%) with SiBO. Via univariate analysis, clinical characteristics including pain duration (p=0.036), abdominal pain(p=0.018), tenderness (p=0.020), rebound tenderness (p<0.001), bowel sounds (p=0.014), and laboratory parameters like white blood cell (WBC) (p=0.029), neutrophil (NE)% (p=0.007), low levels of sodium (p=0.009), abnormal potassium (p=0.003), high levels of blood urea nitrogen (BUN) (p<0.001) and glucose (p=0.002), as well as the radiomics consisting of mesenteric fluid (p=0.018), ascites (p=0.002), bowel spiral signs (p<0.001) and edema of bowel wall (p=0.037) were closely related to bowel ischemia. The ascites (OR=4.067) and bowel spiral signs (OR=5.506) were identified as independent risk factors of StBO in the radiomics model, the AUC for which was 0.706 (95%CI, 0.617–0.795). In the multivariate analysis, seven risk factors including pain duration≤3days (OR=3.775), rebound tenderness (OR=5.201), low-to-absent bowel sounds (OR=5.006), low levels of potassium (OR=3.696) and sodium (OR=3.753), high levels of BUN (OR=4.349), high radiomics score (OR=11.264) were identified. The area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve of the model was 0.857(95%CI, 0.793-0.920). The score of the mutiomics model can be calculated as following formula (1.328*Pd+1.649*Rt+1.611*Bs+1.307*K+1.323*Na+1.470*BUN+2.422*Rad-6.009). In the stratification of risk scores, the proportion of patients with transmural necrosis was significantly greater in the high-risk group (24%) than in the medium-risk group (3%). No transmural necrosis was found in the low-risk group.ConclusionThe novel multiomics model consisting of risk factors for pain duration, rebound tenderness, bowel sounds, potassium, sodium, and BUN levels and radiomics offers a useful tool for predicting StBO. Clinical management can be performed according to the multiomics score; for patients with low risk (scores≤ -3.91), conservative treatment is recommended. For the high-risk group (risk scores> -1.472), there was a strong suggestion for detection with laparotomy. For the remaining patients (-3.091< risk scores ≤ -1.472), dynamic observation is suggested.