“Association between Median Household Income, State Medicaid Expansion Status, and COVID-19 Outcomes Across US Counties”
Authors: Apenyo Tsikata , Vera-Urbina Antonio , Ahmad Khansa , Taveira Tracey H. , Wu Wen-Chih 
Published: February 2021

AbstractObjectiveThe relationship between socioeconomic status and its interaction with State’s Medicaid-expansion policies on COVID-19 outcomes across United States (US) counties are uncertain. To determine the association between median-household-income and its interaction with State Medicaid-expansion status on COVID-19 incidence and mortality in US countiesMethodsLongitudinal, retrospective analysis of 3142 US counties (including District of Columbia) to study the relationship between County-level median-household-income (defined by US Census Bureau’s Small-Area-Income-and-Poverty-Estimates) and COVID-19 incidence and mortality per 100000 of the population in US counties from January 20, 2020 through December 6, 2020. County median-household-income was log-transformed and stratified by quartiles. Medicaid-expansion status was defined by US State’s Medicaid-expansion adoption as of first reported US COVID-19 infection, January 20, 2020. Multilevel mixed-effects generalized-linear-model with negative binomial distribution and log link function compared quartiles of median-household-income and COVID-19 incidence and mortality, reported as incidence-risk-ratio (IRR) and mortality-risk-ratio (MRR), respectively. Models adjusted for county socio-demographic and comorbidity conditions, population density, and hospitals, with a random intercept for states. Multiplicative interaction tested for Medicaid-expansion*income quartiles on COVID-19 incidence and mortality.ResultsThere was no significant difference in COVID-19 incidence across counties by income quartiles or by Medicaid expansion status. Conversely, significant differences exist between COVID-19 mortality by income quartiles and by Medicaid expansion status. The association between income quartiles and COVID-19 mortality was significant only in counties from non-Medicaid-expansion states but not significant in counties from Medicaid-expansion states (P<0.01 for interaction). For non-Medicaid-expansion states, counties in the lowest income quartile had a 41% increase in COVID-19 mortality compared to counties in the highest income quartile (MRR 1.41, 95% CI: 1.25-1.59).Conclusions and RelevanceMedian-household-income was not related to COVID-19 incidence but negatively related to COVID-19 mortality in US counties of states without Medicaid-expansion. It was unrelated to COVID-19 mortality in counties of states that adopted Medicaid-expansion. These findings suggest that expanded healthcare coverage should be investigated further to attenuate the excessive COVID-19 mortality risk associated with low-income communities.Key FindingsQuestionIs there a relationship between COVID-19 outcomes (incidence and mortality) and household income and status of Medicaid expansion of US counties?FindingsIn this longitudinal, retrospective analysis of 3142 US counties, we found no significant difference in COVID-19 incidence across US counties by quartiles of household income. However, counties with lower median household income had a higher risk of COVID-19 mortality, but only in non-Medicaid expansion states. This relationship was not significant in Medicaid expansion states.MeaningExpanded healthcare coverage through Medicaid expansion should be investigated as an avenue to attenuate the excessive COVID-19 mortality risk associated with low-income communities.