Genomic Prediction of Drought Tolerance during Seedling Stage in Maize using Low-Cost Markers
Authors: Zhang Ao , Chen Shan , Cui Zhenhai , Liu Yubo , Guan Yuan , Yang Shuang , Qu Jingtao , Nie Juchao , Dang Dongdong , Li Cong , Dong Xiaomei , Fan Jinjuan , Zhu Yanshu , Zhang Xuecai , Crossa Jose , Cao Huiying , Ruan Yanye , Zheng Hongjian 
Published: December 2021

Abstract
Drought tolerance in maize is a complex and polygenic trait, especially in the seedling stage. In plant breeding, such traits can be improved by genomic selection (GS), which has become a practical and effective tool. In the present study, a natural maize population named Northeast China core population (NCCP) consisting of 379 inbred lines were genotyped with diversity arrays technology (DArT) and genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS) platforms. Target traits of seedling emergence rate (ER), seedling plant height (SPH), and grain yield (GY) were evaluated under two natural drought environments in northeast China. adequate genetic variants have been found for genomic selection, they are not stable enough between two years. Similarly, the heritability of the three traits is not stable enough, and the heritabilities in 2019 (0.88, 0.82, 0.85 for ER, SPH, GY) are higher than that in 2020 (0.65, 0.53, 0.33) and cross-two-year (0.32, 0.26, 0.33). The current research obtained two kinds of marker sets: the SilicoDArT markers were from DArT-seq, and SNPs were from the GBS and DArT-seq. In total, a number of 11,865 SilicoDArT, 7,837 DArT's SNPs, and 91,003 GBS SNPs were used for analysis after quality control. The results of phylogenetic trees showed that the population was rich in consanguinity. Genomic prediction results showed that the average prediction accuracies estimated using the DArT SNP dataset under the 2-fold cross-validation scheme were 0.27, 0.19, and 0.33, for ER, SPH, and GY, respectively. The result of SilicoDArT is close to the SNPs from DArT-seq, those were 0.26, 0.22, and 0.33. For SPH, the prediction accuracies using SilicoDArT were more than ones using DArT SNP, In some cases, alignment to the reference genome results in a loss to the prediction. The trait with lower heritability can improve the prediction accuracy using filtering of linkage disequilibrium. For the same trait, the prediction accuracy estimated with two types of DArT markers was consistently higher than those estimated with the GBS SNPs under the same genotyping cost. Our results show the prediction accuracy has been improved in some cases of controlling population structure and marker quality, even when the density of the marker is reduced. In the initial maize breeding cycle, Silicodart markers can obtain higher prediction accuracy with a lower cost. However, higher marker density platforms i.e. GBS may play a role in the following breeding cycle for the long term. The natural drought experimental station can reduce the difficulty of phenotypic identification in a water-scarce environment. The accumulation of more yearly data will help to stabilize the heritability and improve predictive accuracy in maize breeding. The experimental design and model for drought resistance also need to be further developed.