Prediction of Early Death and Severe Infections during Novel Agent-Based Induction Therapy in Newly-Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma: An Intergroup Analysis from the German Speaking Myeloma Multicenter Group, the Dutch-Belgian Cooperative Trial Group for Hematology Oncology Foundation and the European Myeloma Network
Authors: Mai Elias K , Hielscher Thomas , Bertsch Uta , Salwender Hans , Zweegman Sonja , Munder Markus , Pantani Lucia , Brossart Peter , Beksac Meral , Blau Igor Wolfgang , Raab Marc-Steffen , Dürig Jan , Giesen Nicola , Besemer Britta , Fenk Roland , Reimer Peter , van der Holt Bronno , Haenel Mathias , Metzler Ivana v. , Graeven Ullrich , Boccadoro Mario , Scheid Christof , Dimopoulos Meletios A. , Weisel Katja , Cavo Michele , Sonneveld Pieter , Goldschmidt Hartmut 
Published: November 2021

Abstract
Background: During the past decade, prognostic tools and outcomes of patients with newly-diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) markedly improved. Data from clinical trials evaluating early morbidity and mortality including patients with transplant-eligible NDMM treated with novel agents are scarce. Thus, we aimed to analyze early morbidity and mortality in this patient cohort, devise and validate a predictive score to identify patients at risk.
Patients and methods: Between July 2005 and January 2018, 1333 patients with transplant-eligible NDMM from three subsequent phase III trials, HD4, MM5 and HD6 from the German-speaking Myeloma Multicenter Group (GMMG), received a novel agent-based induction therapy with either bortezomib (BTZ) / doxorubicine / dexamethasone (DEX; PAD: n=192, HD4; PAd: n=296, MM5), BTZ / cyclophosphamide / DEX (VCD: n=300, MM5), BTZ / lenalidomide / DEX (VRD: n=272, HD6) or elotuzumab / VRD (ELO-VRD: n=273, HD6). Severe infections (SI) were defined as any infection grade ≥ 3 according to the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE). SI and early deaths were counted on and up to 30 days post induction therapy. Uni-/multivariable logistic regression models were used to assess predictive factors for SI and early death and to account for trial effects. Data from the European Myeloma Network (EMN) 02 / Dutch-Belgian Cooperative Trial Group for Hematology Oncology Foundation (HOVON) 95 phase III trial including 1497 patients with transplant-eligible NDMM receiving induction therapy with VCD were used to validate a predictive score for SI and early mortality.
Results: Overall, early mortality during induction therapy was low (n=24, 1.8%) in the GMMG cohort. SI were the most common cause for early deaths (n=15, 62.5%) as compared to MM progression-related death (n=5, 20.8%) and other causes (n=4, 16.7%). Rates of SI during induction therapy were 11.9% (n=159) and decreased in subsequent trial generations: HD4-PAD: 27.1%, MM5-PAd: 10.8%, MM5-VCD: 9.3%, HD6-VRD: 7.3% and HD6-ELO-VRD: 9.9% of patients. In the EMN02/HO95 trial, early mortality was 1.7% (n=25) and rates of SI were 6.8% (n=101).
A multivariate model including patient and disease baseline characteristics identified four major risk factors for SI and/or early death on induction therapy in the GMMG cohort: age (&gt;60 years; odds ratio [OR]=1.70, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.21-2.40, p=0.002), International Staging System (stage III; OR=1.92, 95% CI: 1.22-2.94, p=0.005), platelet count (&lt;150/nl; OR=2.03, 95% CI: 1.27-3.30, p=0.004) and World Health Organization (WHO) performance status (&gt;1; OR=1.82, 95% CI: 1.10-3.06, p=0.022).
A sum score based on these four risk factors (one risk factor = one point) was built and included 519 (39.5%), 550 (41.9%) and 245 (18.6%) patients with a score of 0, 1 and ≥2 points. A higher score gradually predicted an increasing risk for SI and/or death during induction therapy: 0 points=7.9%, 1 point=11.5% and ≥2 points=23.2% (p&lt;0.001, Figure 1A); SI only: 0 points=7.7%, 1 point=10.9% and ≥2 points=21.6% (p&lt;0.001, Figure 1B) and early death only: 0 points=0.4%, 1 point=1.3% and ≥2 points=5.7% (p&lt;0.001, Figure 1C).
In the EMN02/HO95 cohort, 673 (45.6%), 587 (39.7%) and 217 (14.7%) patients had a score of 0, 1 and ≥2 points. The score was successfully validated in the EMN02/HO95 cohort: SI and/or death during induction therapy: 0 points=5.0%, 1 point=8.3% and ≥2 points=11.9% (p&lt;0.001); SI only: 0 points=4.5%, 1 point=7.0% and ≥2 points=10.0% (p=0.006) and early death only: 0 points=0.5%, 1 point=2.2% and ≥2 points=2.5% (p=0.01).
Conclusions: To date, this is the largest pooled analysis of individual patient data on early morbidity and mortality in patients with transplant-eligible NDMM treated with novel agent-based induction therapy. Our analysis highlights a decreasing incidence of SI and early mortality and proposes a validated, easy-to-use score to identify patients at excessive risk for SI and/or early death during induction therapy. This allows the implementation of intensive monitoring, preventive and supportive strategies for this subgroup of patients in further clinical trials and also routine care.
Figure 1 Figure 1.

Disclosures
Mai: Celgene / BMS: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Other: travel accommodations and expenses, Research Funding; Glaxo Smith Kline: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Other: travel accommodations and expenses, Research Funding; Janssen-Cilag: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Other: travel accommodations and expenses, Research Funding; Takeda: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Other: travel accommodations and expenses, Research Funding. Salwender: AbbVie: Honoraria, Other: TRAVEL, ACCOMMODATIONS, EXPENSES; Amgen: Honoraria, Other: TRAVEL, ACCOMMODATIONS, EXPENSES; Takeda: Honoraria; Sanofi: Honoraria, Other: TRAVEL, ACCOMMODATIONS, EXPENSES; GlaxoSmithKline: Honoraria, Other: TRAVEL, ACCOMMODATIONS, EXPENSES; Janssen-Cilag: Honoraria, Other: TRAVEL, ACCOMMODATIONS, EXPENSES; Bristol-Myers Squibb/Celgene: Honoraria, Other: TRAVEL, ACCOMMODATIONS, EXPENSES; Oncopeptides: Honoraria; Chugai: Honoraria; Pfizer: Honoraria. Zweegman: Oncopeptides: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Sanofi: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; BMS: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Takeda: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; Janssen: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding. Munder: GSK: Consultancy; BMS: Consultancy, Honoraria; Abbvie: Consultancy; Takeda: Consultancy, Honoraria; Amgen: Honoraria; Sanofi: Consultancy; Janssen: Consultancy, Honoraria; Incyte: Research Funding. Pantani: Janssen: Honoraria; Amgen: Honoraria. Brossart: BMS: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding; Amgen: Consultancy, Honoraria; MSD: Honoraria. Beksac: Amgen: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau; Janssen: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau; Celgene: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau; Sanofi: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau; Takeda: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau; Oncopeptides: Consultancy. Raab: BMS: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Roche: Consultancy; Abbvie: Consultancy, Honoraria; Novartis: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; GSK: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Celgene: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Sanofi: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; Amgen: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Janssen: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees. Dürig: Celgene: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Other: Travel Support, Speakers Bureau; Janssen: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Other: Travel Support, Speakers Bureau; Takeda: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; BMS: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees. Besemer: Takeda: Honoraria; Janssen: Honoraria; GSK: Honoraria. Fenk: GSK: Honoraria; Amgen: Honoraria; Janssen: Honoraria; BMS/Celgene: Honoraria; Takeda: Honoraria. Haenel: Bayer Vital: Honoraria; Jazz: Consultancy, Honoraria; GSK: Consultancy; Takeda: Consultancy, Honoraria; Roche: Consultancy, Honoraria; Novartis: Consultancy, Honoraria; Amgen: Consultancy; Celgene: Consultancy, Honoraria. Metzler: Takeda: Consultancy; BMS: Consultancy; GSK: Consultancy; Amgen: Consultancy; Janssen: Consultancy; AstraZeneca: Consultancy; Pfizer: Consultancy; Sanofi: Consultancy. Graeven: Amgen: Honoraria; Sanofi Aventis: Honoraria; Celgene: Honoraria, Research Funding; Johnson and Johnson: Honoraria; Astra Zeneca: Honoraria; MSD: Consultancy; Boehringer Ingelheim: Honoraria; BMS: Honoraria; Fujifilm: Honoraria; Roche: Research Funding; Gilead: Research Funding; Ipsen Bioscience: Research Funding; MacroGenics: Research Funding. Boccadoro: Janssen and GSK: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Sanofi, Celgene, Amgen, Janssen, Novartis, Bristol-Myers Squibb, and AbbVie: Honoraria; Sanofi, Celgene, Amgen, Janssen, Novartis, Bristol-Myers Squibb, and Mundipharma: Research Funding. Scheid: Novartis: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; BMS: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; Roche: Consultancy; Abbvie: Honoraria; Takeda: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; Janssen: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Amgen: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees. Dimopoulos: Janssen: Honoraria; BMS: Honoraria; Amgen: Honoraria; Takeda: Honoraria; Beigene: Honoraria. Weisel: Oncopeptides: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Bristol Myers Squibb: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; Takeda: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Roche: Honoraria; Celgene: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; Adaptive Biotechnologies: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; GSK: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Amgen: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; Karyopharm: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Janssen: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; Sanofi: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; Abbvie: Consultancy; Novartis: Honoraria; Pfizer: Honoraria. Cavo: Adaptive Biotechnologies: Consultancy, Honoraria; Novartis: Honoraria; GlaxoSmithKline: Consultancy, Honoraria; Celgene: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Other: Travel Accommodations, Speakers Bureau; Takeda: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Speakers Bureau; AbbVie: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Amgen: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Speakers Bureau; Janssen: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Other: TRAVEL, ACCOMMODATIONS, EXPENSES, Speakers Bureau; Sanofi: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Speakers Bureau; Bristol-Myers Squib: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Speakers Bureau. Sonneveld: SkylineDx: Honoraria, Research Funding; Karyopharm: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding; Celgene/BMS: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding; Janssen: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding; Amgen: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding; Takeda: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding. Goldschmidt: Mundipharma: Research Funding; Incyte: Research Funding; Janssen: Consultancy, Honoraria, Other: Grants and/or Provision of Investigational Medicinal Product, Research Funding; Johns Hopkins University: Other: Grant; Molecular Partners: Research Funding; MSD: Research Funding; GSK: Honoraria; Chugai: Honoraria, Other: Grants and/or Provision of Investigational Medicinal Product, Research Funding; Celgene: Consultancy, Honoraria, Other: Grants and/or Provision of Investigational Medicinal Product, Research Funding; BMS: Consultancy, Honoraria, Other: Grants and/or Provision of Investigational Medicinal Product, Research Funding; Adaptive Biotechnology: Consultancy; Amgen: Consultancy, Honoraria, Other: Grants and/or Provision of Investigational Medicinal Product, Research Funding; Novartis: Honoraria, Research Funding; Dietmar-Hopp-Foundation: Other: Grant; Sanofi: Consultancy, Honoraria, Other: Grants and/or Provision of Investigational Medicinal Product, Research Funding; Takeda: Consultancy, Research Funding.