Serial circulating tumor DNA analysis to assess recurrence risk, benefit of adjuvant therapy, growth rate and early relapse detection in stage III colorectal cancer patients.
Authors: Henriksen Tenna V Vesterman , Tarazona Noelia , Frydendahl Amanda , Reinert Thomas , Carbonell-Asins Juan Antonio , Sharma Shruti , Renner Derrick , Roda Desamparados , Huerta Marisol , Roselló Susana , Gotschalck Kåre Andersson , Iversen Lene H. , Løve Uffe S. , Thorlacius-Ussing Ole , Sethi Himanshu , Aleshin Alexey , Cervantes Andres , Andersen Claus Lindbjerg 
Published: June 2021

3540 Background: Challenges in the postoperative management of stage III colorectal cancer include: 1) selection of high-risk patients for adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT), 2) lack of markers to assess ACT efficacy, 3) assessment of recurrence risk after ACT, and 4) lack of markers to guide treatment decisions for high-risk patients e.g. additional therapy or intensified surveillance. Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) is a promising marker with potential to mitigate the challenges. Here we used serial ctDNA measurements to assess the correlation between recurrence and ctDNA detection: postoperative, during and after ACT, and during surveillance; and to assess growth rates of metachronous metastases. Uniquely, we also used concurrent CT scans and ctDNA measurements to compare the sensitivity for detecting recurrence. Methods: Stage III CRC patients treated with curative intent at Danish and Spanish hospitals in 2014-2019 were recruited (n = 166). Blood samples (n = 1227) were collected prior to and immediately after surgery, and every third month for up to 36 months. Per patient 16 personal mutations were used to quantify plasma ctDNA (Signatera, bespoke mPCR NGS assay). Results: Detection of ctDNA was a strong recurrence predictor, both postoperatively (HR 7.2, 95% CI 3.8-13.8, P< 0.001), directly after ACT (HR = 18.2, 95% CI 7.1-46, P < 0.001), and when measured serially after end of treatment (HR = 41, 95% CI 16-100, P < 0.001). The recurrence rate of postoperative ctDNA positive patients treated with ACT was 80% (16/20). Patients who stayed ctDNA positive during ACT all recurred. Serial post-treatment ctDNA measurements revealed exponential growth for all recurrence patients following either a SLOW (26%-increase/month) or a FAST (126%-increase/month) pattern (P < 0.001). From ctDNA detection to radiologic recurrence, ctDNA levels of FAST patients increased by a median 117-fold, and up to 554-fold. The 3-year overall survival was 43% for FAST patients and 100% for SLOW and non-recurrence patients (HR = 41.3, 95% CI 7.5-228, P < 0.001). Coinciding CT scans and ctDNA measurements (n = 113 patients, 235 coinciding events, median 2 per patient) showed a high agreement (92%) and ctDNA either detected residual disease before the CT scan (n = 7 patients) or at the same time (n = 14 patients). The median lead-time was 7.5 months. Conclusions: The study confirmed the prognostic power of serial postoperative ctDNA analysis. Moreover, it provided novel analyses demonstrating that ctDNA is more sensitive for recurrence detection than CT scans and can be used for tumor growth rate assessments. The difference between FAST and SLOW growing tumors suggest that growth rates could guide whom to start on systemic therapy rapidly and whom to send for diagnostic imaging. Altogether, the study highlights many potential utilities of ctDNA in guiding clinical decision-making.