bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Estimating the Course of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Germany via Spline-based Hierarchical Modelling of Death Counts
Authors: Wistuba Tobias , Mayr Andreas , Staerk Christian 
Published: October 2021

Abstract
The effective reproduction number is a key figure in context of the COVID-19 pandemic, which is typically estimated based on daily confirmed cases. Here, we consider a retrospective modelling approach for estimating effective reproduction numbers based on death counts during the first year of the pandemic in Germany. The proposed Bayesian hierarchical model incorporates splines to estimate reproduction numbers flexibly over time while adjusting for varying effective infection fatality rates. The approach also provides estimates of dark figures regarding undetected infections over time. Results for Germany illustrate that estimates based on death counts are often similar to classical estimates based on confirmed cases. However, considering death counts is more robust against shifts in testing policies: in particular, confirmed cases indicate a spike in the effective reproduction number linked to a local super-spreading event in June 2020, whereas our model does not estimate a spike but reduced dark figures of infections. During the second wave of infections, classical estimates suggest a flattening trend of infections following the "lockdown light" in November 2020, while our results indicate that infections continued to rise until the "second lockdown" in December 2020. This observation is associated with more stringent testing criteria introduced concurrently with the "lockdown light", which is reflected in subsequently increasing dark figures of infections estimated by our model. In light of progressive vaccinations, shifting the focus from modelling confirmed cases to reported deaths with the possibility to incorporate effective infection fatality rates might be of increasing relevance for the future surveillance of the pandemic.
Human Papillomavirus Type 16 L2 Gene Sequence Variation Analysis in Indonesian Cervical Cancer Specimens
Authors: Putra Syandrez Prima , Putra Andani Eka , Astuti Indwiani , Asmara Widya 
Published: October 2021

Abstract
Background: Human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV16) is the most common etiological cause of cervical cancer in Indonesian women. HPV16 L2 genetic variation analysis is important for vaccine strategies of cervical cancer, yet the data in Indonesia is still limited. In this research, we determined the variation of the HPV16 L2 gene sequences in Indonesian cervical cancer specimens. Method: We cross-sectionally observed a total of 23 DNA isolates of HPV16 positive specimens stored in the laboratory of the Center for Diagnostic and Research on Infectious Diseases (PDRPI Lab) Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Andalas, Padang, Indonesia. The HPV16 L2 genes were amplified, sequenced, and followed by DNA alignment, single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) analysis, and phylogenetic tree reconstruction. Results: As many as 35 SNPs were found, consist of 18 synonymous SNPs (sSNPs) and 17 non-synonymous SNPs (nsSNPs). Amino acid variations were mostly detected at S269P (100%) and L330F (43.48%) with no variation in the immuno-protective region near L2 N-terminus. A total of 5 HPV16 phylogenetic sub-lineages were found closely related to A1 (n=5), A2 (n=12), A3 (n=2), A4 (n=3), and C (n=1). Conclusion: The variation of HPV16 L2 gene sequences was mostly located on the central region of the L2 sequences and the cross-protective region near the L2 N-terminus was particularly conserved. This study should enhance the information about HPV16 L2 gene variation in Indonesia.
Population Based Mean Vitamin-D Levels In 19 European Countries &amp; COVID-19 Mortality
Authors: Ahmad Amar , Heumann Christian , Ali Raghib , Oliver Tim 
Published: October 2021

Abstract
Background: Reports early in the epidemic linking low mean national Vitamin D level with increased COVID-19 death, and until recently little research on the impact of Vitamin-D deficiency on severity of COVID-19, led to this update of the initial report studying mortality up to the end of January 2021. Methods: Coronavirus pandemic data for 19 European countries were downloaded from Our World in Data, which was last updated on January 24, 2021. Data from March 21, 2020 to January 22, 2021 were included in the statistical analysis. Vitamin-D (25)-HD mean data were collected by literature review. Poisson mixed-effect model was used to model the data. Results: European countries with Vitamin-D (25)-HD mean less than or equal to 50 have higher COVID-19 death rates as compared with European countries with Vitamin-D (25)-HD mean greater than 50, relative risk of 2.155 (95% CI: 1.068 - 4.347, p-value = 0.032). A statistically significant negative moderate Spearman rank correlation was observed between Vitamin-D (25)-HD mean and the number of COVID-19 deaths for each 14-day period during the COVID-19 pandemic time period. Conclusions: The observation of the significantly lower COVID-19 mortality rates in countries with lowest annual sun exposure but highest mean Vitamin-D (25)-HD levels provides support for the use of food fortification. The need to consider re-configuring vaccine strategy due to emergence of large number of COVID-19 variants provides an opportunity to undertake such therapeutic randomized control trials.
Left Atrial Phasic Function Remodeling During Its Enlargement: a Two-dimensional Speckle-tracking Echocardiography Study
Authors: Chen Chuyun , Yang Ying , Zhang Yan 
Published: October 2021

Abstract
Background: Left atrial (LA) size is often used as a surrogate marker of LA function in clinical practice, with larger atria thought to represent a “dysfunctioning” atrium, since there is no accepted ‘gold’ standard to evaluate LA function. The exact relationship between LA size and phasic function, and whether LA dysfunction occur before LA enlargement (LAE) may be of clinical interest while have not been fully studied. Two-dimensional speckle-tracking echocardiography (2D STE) was showed a promising method in measuring LA physic deformation. Materials and methods: A community cohort of 715 subjects at cardiovascular disease high risk accepted comprehensive echocardiography. LA longitudinal phasic strain Sa (absolute peak strain during atrial contraction), Se (peak strain at early diastole) and Stot (total atrial strain =Sa+Se), representing contractile, conduit, and reservoir function respectively, were measured using off-line 2D STE software in apical 4 chamber view, and data were compared among groups at different LA size and between sub-groups in normal LA size with and without hypertension (HT). Results: With LAE (from normal size, mild, moderate to severe LAE), the Stot(21.74±5.97,20.75±4.99,20.49±5.27,17.75±4.71, respectively, ANOVA p=0.003) and Sa (11.84±3.92,11.00±3.29,10.11±2.57,8.55±2.88, respectively, ANOVA p<0.001) reduced while Se had no change. In normal sized LA subgroups, Stot (21.35±5.91 vs 23.01±6.02, p=0.008) and Se (9.51±4.41 vs 11.17±4.89, p<0.001) reduced in subjects with HT comparing with those without. Conclusion: LA phasic function remodeling occurs before LAE and continues with LAE, with reservoir, conduit and contractile function being affected unparalleled.
Pulse Pressure is Associated with Cognitive Impairment in Japanese Non-Demented Population: A Cross-Sectional Study
Authors: Mizuhara Ryo , Mitaki Shingo , Takamura Masahiro , Abe Satoshi , Onoda Keiichi , Yamaguchi Shuhei , Nagai Atsushi 
Published: October 2021

Abstract
BackgroundGrowing evidence suggests that vascular risk factors, especially hypertension, relate not only to cardiovascular disease but also to cognitive impairment. However, the impact of pulse pressure on cognitive function remains controversial. In this study, we evaluated the associations between pulse pressure and cognitive function in a Japanese health examination cohort using propensity matching analysis.MethodsWe examined 2,546 individuals with a mean age of 60.8 ± 10.3 years who voluntarily participated in health examination. Clinical variables including pulse pressure, brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and cognitive function were assessed. We divided the participants into the high and low pulse pressure groups and evaluated their physical examination data, cognitive functions, and silent brain lesions using propensity matching. To clarify whether pulse pressure and blood pressure have different implications for cognitive function, a mediating analysis was also conducted.ResultsHigher pulse pressure corresponded to lower Okabe and Kohs’ scores. The relationship between pulse pressure and cognitive impairment was not significantly mediated by systolic blood pressure. We observed no significant associations between silent brain lesions and pulse pressure.ConclusionHigh pulse pressure associates with cognitive impairment without systolic blood pressure mediation in Japanese subjects without dementia.
Should Your Brand Pick a Side? How Market Share Determines the Impact of Divisive Corporate Political Stances
Authors: Hydock Chris , Paharia Neeru , Blair Sean 
Published: October 2021

Abstract
When the public opinion on a social matter is divided, it is riskier for large brands to engage in activism than for small brands. As long as a brand’s initial market share is sufficiently small, engaging in activism can result in a net increase in customers even if the brand takes a stance that consumers overwhelmingly oppose. In contrast, large brands can lose more than they gain, even when opponents and supporters are in balance. Product quality or competitive prices are no insurance against taking the wrong stances. Consumers are willing to trade off price and quality for political values. Therefore, brands cannot dismiss the consequences of politics, even if they hold a traditional competitive advantage in price or quality.
Doubting the Quran, the Hadith, and Muhammad’s Splitting of the Moon: A Probabilistic Refutation of One of Islam’s Most Striking Miraculous Claims
Authors: Lataster Raphael 
Published: October 2021

Abstract
Having spent many years engaging with Christian claims about miracles, especially the purported resurrection of Jesus, I now shift attention to Islamic miracle claims, the most striking of which seems to me to be Muhammad’s alleged splitting of the moon. I explain, in a Bayesian fashion, why this almost certainly did not happen.
God Emperor Trump: Defending Western Civilization Against Neo-Marxism and Militant Islam
Authors: Price Robert M. 
Published: October 2021

Abstract
As we await the Second Coming of President Donald Trump, it is important to understand that his conservative Evangelical supporters view him not as a new Christ but as a new Constantine, a guardian of Western Civilization in a crucial period when we face threatened conquest by foreign enemies and infiltrators, Postmodern Neo-Marxism, and Militant Islam Thus he should be seen also as a new Charles Martel. He need not be a Bible-reading pietist to fulfill these roles, so Christians need not be ashamed of him if he isn’t.
Динамизм духовного фамилиекона и модели внесеминарского выбора фамилий церковниками
Authors: Азовцев (Andrei Vasil’evich Azovtse Андрей Васильевич 
Published: October 2021

Abstract
В статье исследуются динамические процессы в фамилиеконе русского духовенства, напрямую не связанные со временем обучения конкретных церковников в заведениях духовного образования. Описываются на фактических примерах и систематизируются основные модели перемены фамилий представителями рассматриваемого сословия во внесеминарский период их жизни. Делается общий вывод о том, что характеризующееся динамизмом становление духовного фамилиекона позволяет описывать его как часть общих процессов, протекавших в фамильных системах всех прочих социальных страт российского общества.
Динаміка питомої активності 137Cs у надземній фітомасі багна болотного (Ledum palustre L.) у лісах Полісся України після аварії на Чорнобильській АЕС
Authors: Krasnov V. P. , Orlov O. O. , Zhukovskyi O. V. 
Published: October 2021

Досліджено динаміку рівнів радіоактивного забруднення 137Cs (1991–2018 рр.) надземної фітомаси багна болотного (Ledum palustre L.) – поширеної лікарської рослини, яка росте в перезволожених соснових (рідше мішаних) лісах та на відкритих оліготрофних і мезотрофних болотах Українського Полісся. Виявлено зниження цього показника за період досліджень у 3,1–6,5 разу. На всіх постійних пробних площах зменшилася щільність радіоактивного забруднення ґрунту у 2,1–2,7 разу, що пояснюється природним розпадом радіонукліда та перерозподілом між компонентами лісових екосистем. За період досліджень відзначено також зниження інтенсивності надходження 137Сs до фітомаси багна болотного – коефіцієнт переходу знизився у 1,2–3,0 разу. Результати досліджень дали змогу визначити залежності зміни питомої активності 137Сs в олистяних пагонах багна болотного та коефіцієнтів переходу в часі, які можна використовувати для прогнозування їхнього радіоактивного забруднення в наступні роки.
Особливості лісового фонду рекреаційно-оздоровчих лісів Лівобережної України
Authors: Musienko S. I. , Rumyantsev M. G. , Tarnopilska O. M. , Bondarenko V. V. , Lukyanets V. A. , Kobets O. V. 
Published: October 2021

На основі аналізу повидільної таксаційної бази даних ВО «Укрдержліспроект» визначено площу й запас рекреаційно-оздоровчих лісів у межах Лівобережної України. Виявлено, що найбільша частка площі цих лісів зосереджена в межах Лівобережного Степу (38,1 %), дещо менша (34,2 %) ? у Лівобережному Лісостепу, найменша (15,5 %) – у Лівобережному Поліссі. Видовий склад рекреаційно-оздоровчих лісів є різноманітним і суттєво різниться за кількістю лісоутворювальних порід залежно від природної зони. Виявлено, що в Лівобережному Поліссі найбільшою є частка площі лісів досліджуваної категорії в умовах свіжого субору, в Лівобережному Лісостепу – свіжого груду, а в Лівобережному Степу – сухого груду. Вікова структура насаджень у рекреаційно-оздоровчих лісах регіону досліджень є розбалансованою із суттєвим переважанням середньовікових насаджень (близько 60 % від загальної площі). Переважна більшість рекреаційно-оздоровчих лісів є середньоповнотними (із відносною повнотою 0,7–0,8) та ростуть за І–ІІ класами бонітету.
Dyadic Coping in Couples Facing Chronic Physical Illness: A Systematic Review
Authors: Weitkamp Katharina , Feger Fabienne , Landolt Selina A. , Roth Michelle , Bodenmann Guy 
Published: October 2021

Objective:Chronic physical illness affects not only patients but also their partners. Dyadic coping (DC)—the ways couples cope in dealing with a stressor such as chronic illness—has received increased attention over the last three decades. The aim of the current study was to summarize the state of research on DC in couples with chronic physical illnesses.Methods:We conducted a systematic review of qualitative, quantitative, and mixed-methods studies published between 1990 and 2020, assessing DC in couples affected by severe physical illnesses. We used DC and related search terms for the literature search inPsycinfo, Psyndex, andMedline. Five thousand three hundred thirty studies were identified in three electronic databases and 49 of these were included in the review (5,440 individuals reported on 2,820 dyads). We excluded studies on cancer, cardiovascular disease, and multiple sclerosis because of existing reviews in the respective fields. Half of the studies included were on diabetes. Other studies were on arthritis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), cystic fibrosis, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), Huntington's disease, lupus erythematosus, Parkinson's disease, renal diseases, stroke, and endometriosis. Two raters extracted data using a predefined protocol, including study quality. Results were collated in a narrative synthesis organized by illness and DC operationalization.Results:Overall, DC was associated with beneficial outcomes in physical health, well-being, and relationship satisfaction. Differential effects became apparent for certain chronic conditions potentially depending on certain disease characteristics, such as early-onset, sudden-onset, or life-threatening conditions.Conclusion:Facing challenges together as a couple seemed indispensable for adapting to a diverse range of demands related to chronic illnesses with some specific demands of particular chronic diseases. There is a need for the development of truly dyadic interventions with an eye on the specific challenges of the various chronic conditions.
Problems of using digital technologies in higher education: private law regulation of intelligent systems
Authors: Минин А.Я. 
Published: October 2021

в статье рассматриваются вопросы интеллектуальной трансформации высшего образования, правового регулирования применения цифровых технологий, ориентации ППС на разработку фонда оценочных средств для электронных курсов онлайн-образования и обеспечения качества подготовки «цифрового поколения» обучающихся как профессионально-ориентированного на применение интеллектуальных экосистем.
the paper deals with the issues of intellectual transformation of higher education, legal regulation of the use of digital technologies, the orientation of teaching staff to develop a fund of evaluation tools for e-courses of online education and ensuring the quality of training of the "digital generation" of students as professionally oriented to the application of intellectual ecosystems.
Creative and digital technologies in museum, exhibition and excursion activities
Authors: Гвоздев А.В. 
Published: October 2021

интерактивные формы музейной, выставочной и экскурсионной деятельности повышают интерес и запоминаемость материала. Иммерсивные методы предполагают погружение посетителя в реальность. В последнее время был реализован ряд успешных проектов, направленных на увековечение памяти о Великой Отечественной войне.
interactive forms of museum, exhibition and excursion activities increase the interest and memorability of the material. Immersive methods involve immersing the visitor into reality. Recently, a number of successful projects have been implemented aimed at perpetuating the memory of the Great Patriotic War.
The reasons that determine the choice of an educational institution as one of the conditions for the successful adaptation of young professionals to professional activities
Authors: Анисимова Т.Г. 
Published: October 2021

в статье рассматриваются основные факторы, оказывающие влияние на процесс адаптации молодых специалистов, приводятся результаты социологического исследования особенностей протекания адаптации, предлагаются основные направления деятельности по совершенствованию данного процесса.
the paper examines the main factors that influence the process of adaptation of students in high school, the results of sociological studies of the course of adapting first-year students are offered the key actions for the improvement of the process.
Epidemiology of Underweight among Infants in Rural Burkina Faso
Authors: Sié Ali , Ouattara Mamadou , Bountogo Mamadou , Dah Clarisse , Compaore Guillaume , Lebas Elodie , Brogdon Jessica M. , Lin Ying , Godwin William W. , O’Brien Kieran S. , Arnold Benjamin F. , Lietman Thomas M. , Oldenburg Catherine E. , _ _ 
Published: October 2021

ABSTRACT.
Infant undernutrition is thought to contribute to growth failure and mortality. We evaluated the patterns in underweight in a population-based sample of children aged 1–11 months in rural northwestern Burkina Faso. Data were collected during the baseline assessment of a community-randomized trial evaluating mass azithromycin distribution in Nouna District, Burkina Faso. A door-to-door census was undertaken for all households in all communities. Infants aged 1–11 months were weighed for weight-based dosing in the trial and their weights were used to calculate weight-for-age Z-scores (WAZ). Underweight was defined as WAZ ≤ 2. We evaluated the age patterns in WAZ and underweight by demographic, seasonal, and geographic characteristics. Of 7,109 infants, 6,077 had accurate weight and global positioning system (GPS) coordinate data (85.5%). Infants were a median of 6 months old (interquartile range [IQR] 3–8) and 48.4% were female. Mean WAZ was −0.68 (SD 1.6) and 19.0% were underweight. The WAZ decreased with increasing age, and the prevalence of underweight increased from 2.5% among 1-month-olds to 27.6% among 11-month-olds. Underweight was more common among boys than girls (22.1% among boys versus 15.6% among girls). Improved latrine use by the household was associated with increased WAZ, and this effect was stronger in male compared with female infants. Given the large burden of underweight among infants, interventions addressing undernutrition should specifically include infants.
EXPLORING TEACHER ROLES IN RELATION TO CLASSROOM ACTIVITIES IN AN ACTIVITY-DOMINATED ENGLISH CLASS: THE LEARNERS’ PERSPECTIVES
Authors: Huang Qiang 
Published: October 2021

<p>The present study aims to investigate teacher roles in relation to classroom activities. For this purpose, Survey questionnaires were administered to 49 university students in their English course. The questionnaire consisted of two 5-Likert scales. One scale, the STRI, examined teacher roles and the second one, CAI, investigated the number of classroom activities used in class as well as their frequencies. Statistical results showed that both scales were very reliable and valid with Cronbach Alpha values reaching .913 and .822 respectively. So are the three main constructs of both teacher roles (namely, cognitive role, affective role and managerial role) and classroom activities (i.e., one-way language exercises, meaning-focused interactive activities and real-life tasks). Descriptive statistics indicated that the English class was mainly dominated by interactive activities. Further analyses revealed that, in this activity-dominated English course, the teacher had exerted different impacts in the three domains: cognitive role had the highest mean, affective role had the medium mean and managerial role had the lowest mean. More importantly, results of correlational analyses disclosed that teacher role was positively correlated with classroom activities, so did most of their main constructs. More specific features were identified, and implications were discussed in the study. </p><p> </p><p><strong> Article visualizations:</strong></p><p><img src="/-counters-/edu_01/0873/a.php" alt="Hit counter" /></p>
Upaya Peningkatan Motorik Kasar Anak Melalui Permainan Maze Sketch Spider untuk Anak Usia 5-6 Tahun di TK Bunga Bangsa 2 Grogol Jaya Depok
Authors: Muttaqien Mustika Dewi , Aisyah Aisyah 
Published: October 2021

Abstract
Based on the results of previous research at Bunga Bangsa 2 Kindergarten, it shows the low aspect of gross motor development for children aged 5-6 years is due to the gross motor development tools for children in Bunga Bangsa 2 Kindergarten are still not optimally used, and the lack of innovation in children's gross motor development games The purpose of this study was to improve the gross motor skills of children in group B1 of TK Bunga Bangsa 2 Gerogol Jaya Depok, by using a new game called maze sketch spider. The research method used is classroom action research. The sample was taken as many as 15 students. Data collection was carried out by direct observation and interviews with class teachers. The results showed: 1) Precycled observations, learning had not used the maze game and reached an average class percentage value of 47%. 2) Observation cycle I, learning has used the maze game and achieved an average class percentage value of 58%. 3) Observation cycle II, achieving an average class percentage value of 77%. So based on the results of research in cycle II, the results obtained have reached the specified success criteria of 75%. Therefore it can be concluded that with the maze sketch spider game, the gross motoric development of children in Group B1 of TK Bunga Bangsa 2 Gerogol Jaya Depok can increase with a class percentage of 77%.