Predicting range shifts of African apes under global change scenarios
Authors: Carvalho Joana S. , Graham Bruce , Bocksberger Gaёlle , Maisels Fiona , Williamson Elizabeth A. , Wich Serge , Sop Tenekwetche , Amarasekaran Bala , Barca Benjamin , Barrie Abdulai , Bergl Richard A. , Boesch Christophe , Boesch Hedwige , Brncic Terry M. , Buys Bartelijntje , Chancellor Rebecca , Danquah Emmanuel , Doumbé Osiris A. , Le‐Duc Stephane Y. , Galat‐Luong Anh , Ganas Jessica , Gatti Sylvain , Ghiurghi Andrea , Goedmakers Annemarie , Granier Nicolas , Hakizimana Dismas , Haurez Barbara , Head Josephine , Herbinger Ilka , Hillers Annika , Jones Sorrel , Junker Jessica , Maputla Nakedi , Manasseh Eno‐Nku , McCarthy Maureen S. , Molokwu‐Odozi Mary , Morgan Bethan J. , Nakashima Yoshihiro , N’Goran Paul K. , Nixon Stuart , Nkembi Louis , Normand Emmanuelle , Nzooh Laurent D.Z. , Olson Sarah H. , Payne Leon , Petre Charles‐Albert , Piel Alex K. , Pintea Lilian , Plumptre Andrew J. , Rundus Aaron , Serckx Adeline , Stewart Fiona A. , Sunderland‐Groves Jacqueline , Tagg Nikki , Todd Angelique , Vosper Ashley , Wenceslau José F.C. , Wessling Erin G. , Willie Jacob , Kühl Hjalmar S. 
Published: June 2021

AbstractAimModelling African great ape distribution has until now focused on current or past conditions, while future scenarios remain scarcely explored. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we predicted changes in taxon‐specific distribution under future scenarios of climate, land use and human populations for (1) areas outside protected areas (PAs) only (assuming complete management effectiveness of PAs), (2) the entire study region and (3) interspecies range overlap.LocationTropical Africa.MethodsWe compiled occurrence data (n = 5,203) on African apes from the IUCN A.P.E.S. database and extracted relevant climate‐, habitat‐ and human‐related predictors representing current and future (2050) conditions to predict taxon‐specific range change under a best‐ and a worst‐case scenario, using ensemble forecasting.ResultsThe predictive performance of the models varied across taxa. Synergistic interactions between predictors are shaping African ape distribution, particularly human‐related variables. On average across taxa, a range decline of 50% is expected outside PAs under the best scenario if no dispersal occurs (61% in worst scenario). Otherwise, an 85% range reduction is predicted to occur across study regions (94% worst). However, range gains are predicted outside PAs if dispersal occurs (52% best, 21% worst), with a slight increase in gains expected across study regions (66% best, 24% worst). Moreover, more than half of range losses and gains are predicted to occur outside PAs where interspecific ranges overlap.Main ConclusionsMassive range decline is expected by 2050, but range gain is uncertain as African apes will not be able to occupy these new areas immediately due to their limited dispersal capacity, migration lag and ecological constraints. Given that most future range changes are predicted outside PAs, Africa's current PA network is likely to be insufficient for preserving suitable habitats and maintaining connected ape populations. Thus, conservation planners urgently need to integrate land use planning and climate change mitigation measures at all decision‐making levels both in range countries and abroad.