Estimating breast, stomach, and colorectal cancer incidence in Colombia through administrative database algorithms: A systematic review of literature and real-world data study.
Authors: Saldaña Espinel Laura Estefania , Patiño Benavidez Andres Felipe , Rozo Agudelo Nicolás , Gamboa Garay Oscar Andres , Paneso Echeverry Juan Esteban , Bernal Gutierrez Marcela , Arevalo Pereira Kenndy , Buitrago Giancarlo 
Published: June 2021

e18810 Background: Breast, stomach and colorectal cancers have high incidence in Colombia. Official cancer incidence registries depend upon sentinel site reports as there is no nationwide surveillance system. We aimed to identify administrative database algorithms for breast, stomach and colorectal cancer case selection and to compare their cancer incidence estimates to official registries. Methods: We conducted a systematic review to identify algorithms with high positive predictive values (VPP) for breast, stomach and colorectal cancer case identification in administrative databases. For each cancer we selected two algorithms: a sensitive algorithm, based on cancer-specific ICD-10 codes, and a specific algorithm, combining cancer-specific ICD-10 codes with at least one code for oncological procedures. We varied the number of months a cancer-specific ICD-10 code was registered within each algorithm to test for algorithm stability. We conducted a cohort study to estimate incident cancer cases for 2013 in four cancer sentinel cities in Colombia and one cancer reference center using both algorithms. We defined incident cases as cases lacking a cancer-specific ICD-10 code in the preceding two years and adjusted incident cases for type of regimen affiliation. Algorithms with results closest to official sources were selected as best performing algorithms. We used the contributive regimen Capitation Payment Unit administrative database of Colombia for 2011-2014 as source of information. Results: Breast cancer case-identification algorithms have a higher VPP reported in literature (83-100%) compared to colorectal (41.7-94%) and stomach cancer (35-59.7%) algorithms. The closest breast cancer incidence estimates to the official registries Infocancer and National Cancer Institute were yielded by the specific algorithm with ICD-10 codes persisting for four months (n= 672 vs 649 and 397 vs 212, respectively). The closest colorectal cancer cancer incidence estimates to official registries were yielded by the specific algorithm with ICD-10 codes persisting for three months (n= 219 vs 230 and 168 vs 139, respectively). The closest stomach cancer incidence estimates to official registries were yielded by the specific algorithm with ICD-10 codes persisting for one month (n= 122 vs 146 and 99 vs 153, respectively). Sensitive algorithms were less stable than specific algorithms across all three cancer types. Conclusions: Breast, stomach and colorectal incident cancer cases can be identified through administrative databases. VPP vary among types of algorithms and cancers. Specific algorithms provide better breast and colorectal incident cancer case-identification in Colombian administrative databases, compared to stomach cancer algorithms. This is a potential approach for estimating nationwide cancer incidence in Colombia.