bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Real-time Prediction of the Daily Incidence of COVID-19 in 215 Countries and Territories Using Machine Learning: Model Development and Validation
Authors: Peng Yuanyuan , Li Cuilian , Rong Yibiao , Pang Chi Pui , Chen Xinjian , Chen Haoyu 
Published: June 2021

Background
Advanced prediction of the daily incidence of COVID-19 can aid policy making on the prevention of disease spread, which can profoundly affect people's livelihood. In previous studies, predictions were investigated for single or several countries and territories.

Objective
We aimed to develop models that can be applied for real-time prediction of COVID-19 activity in all individual countries and territories worldwide.

Methods
Data of the previous daily incidence and infoveillance data (search volume data via Google Trends) from 215 individual countries and territories were collected. A random forest regression algorithm was used to train models to predict the daily new confirmed cases 7 days ahead. Several methods were used to optimize the models, including clustering the countries and territories, selecting features according to the importance scores, performing multiple-step forecasting, and upgrading the models at regular intervals. The performance of the models was assessed using the mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), Pearson correlation coefficient, and Spearman correlation coefficient.

Results
Our models can accurately predict the daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in most countries and territories. Of the 215 countries and territories under study, 198 (92.1%) had MAEs <10 and 187 (87.0%) had Pearson correlation coefficients >0.8. For the 215 countries and territories, the mean MAE was 5.42 (range 0.26-15.32), the mean RMSE was 9.27 (range 1.81-24.40), the mean Pearson correlation coefficient was 0.89 (range 0.08-0.99), and the mean Spearman correlation coefficient was 0.84 (range 0.2-1.00).

Conclusions
By integrating previous incidence and Google Trends data, our machine learning algorithm was able to predict the incidence of COVID-19 in most individual countries and territories accurately 7 days ahead.
“It's Been Negative for Us Just All the Way Across the Board”: Focus Group Study Exploring Parent Perceptions of Child Screen Time During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Authors: Hammons Amber J , Villegas Elizabeth , Robart Ryan 
Published: June 2021

Background
Child screen time (ST) has soared during the COVID-19 pandemic as lockdowns and restrictions have forced changes to regular family routines. It is important to investigate how families are navigating ST.

Objective
This study aimed to explore families’ experiences of ST during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods
Virtual focus group sessions were conducted between December 2020 and February 2021 in English and Spanish. Transcripts were analyzed using reflexive thematic analysis.

Results
In total, 48 parents (predominantly Hispanic) residing in California participated in 1 of 14 focus group sessions. Children were attending school remotely at the time of the study. A total of 6 themes and 1 subtheme were identified: (1) total ST has increased; (2) children are too attached to screens; (3) ST has advantages and disadvantages but parents perceive ST as mostly negative; (4) parents and children have limited options; (5) ST restrictions (subtheme: children react negatively when ST is restricted); and (6) parents are concerned that children are not getting enough exercise.

Conclusions
This study provides a cross-sectional insight into how family life has changed with regard to ST during the COVID-19 pandemic. Parents expressed concerns about total ST, the addictive nature of it, and lack of physical activity. It is important that future studies examine the long-term effects of heavy ST and preemptively introduce ways to redirect children’s ST habits as the country attempts to establish a new normal.
Predictive Modeling of Morbidity and Mortality in Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19 and its Clinical Implications: Algorithm Development and Interpretation
Authors: Wang Joshua M , Liu Wenke , Chen Xiaoshan , McRae Michael P , McDevitt John T , Fenyö David 
Published: June 2021

Background
The COVID-19 pandemic began in early 2021 and placed significant strains on health care systems worldwide. There remains a compelling need to analyze factors that are predictive for patients at elevated risk of morbidity and mortality.

Objective
The goal of this retrospective study of patients who tested positive with COVID-19 and were treated at NYU (New York University) Langone Health was to identify clinical markers predictive of disease severity in order to assist in clinical decision triage and to provide additional biological insights into disease progression.

Methods
The clinical activity of 3740 patients at NYU Langone Hospital was obtained between January and August 2020; patient data were deidentified. Models were trained on clinical data during different parts of their hospital stay to predict three clinical outcomes: deceased, ventilated, or admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).

Results
The XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting) model that was trained on clinical data from the final 24 hours excelled at predicting mortality (area under the curve [AUC]=0.92; specificity=86%; and sensitivity=85%). Respiration rate was the most important feature, followed by SpO2 (peripheral oxygen saturation) and being aged 75 years and over. Performance of this model to predict the deceased outcome extended 5 days prior, with AUC=0.81, specificity=70%, and sensitivity=75%. When only using clinical data from the first 24 hours, AUCs of 0.79, 0.80, and 0.77 were obtained for deceased, ventilated, or ICU-admitted outcomes, respectively. Although respiration rate and SpO2 levels offered the highest feature importance, other canonical markers, including diabetic history, age, and temperature, offered minimal gain. When lab values were incorporated, prediction of mortality benefited the most from blood urea nitrogen and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH). Features that were predictive of morbidity included LDH, calcium, glucose, and C-reactive protein.

Conclusions
Together, this work summarizes efforts to systematically examine the importance of a wide range of features across different endpoint outcomes and at different hospitalization time points.
HISTOLOGICAL VARIANCES OF MORINGA OLIFERA ON THE KIDNEY OF ADULT WISTAR RATS
Authors: ADEBOLA ADETUNJI OPEYEMI , OLUWATOYIN OYEWO , TOYIN ADETUNJI IYABODE , NNENA LINDA NWOBI 
Published: June 2021

Aim and Objectives: Demonstrating the exact quantity of Moringa oleifera (MO) that will cure any hepatocyte diseases and the one that can harm the hepatocytes of the Adult Wistar rats.
Methods: Twenty (20) adult Wistar rats (both sex) were used for the study (caged based on same sex to avoid mating and pregnancy) and were randomly assigned into four groups (n=5); A-Control, B-250 mg/body weight (BW) of MO, C-500 mg/BW of MO, and D-750 mg/BW of MO orally.
Result: The crude aqueous extract of MO Lam, shows insignificant increased in BW at the 1st week of administration which latter dropped little by little doing the weeks of the administration in groups (B, C, and D) rats, by comparing (p<0.05) to the control group after MO administration, the organ (Kidneys) shows a significant difference between the kidneys (left and right kidneys) in relation to the control group rats. MO increases the weight of the animals morphologically by comparing the weight of the animals before and after administration. Histological sections shows a normal Glomerulli, Peri-Glomerular Space, Convoluted Tubules, and Interstitium, after administration of the Crude Aqueous Extract of MO lame in terms with the control group rats.
Conclusion: MO is a good herb that has no damage effect on the body and hepatocytes but of more beneficial.
SYNTHESIS OF BIS-BENZIMIDAZOLES N-ALKYL ANTI-INFECTIOUS DERIVATES
Authors: JACQUES AKPA SAGNE , GONDO DIDIER DIOMANDE GBE , DOUMADE ZON , ANE ADJOU 
Published: June 2021

Objective: The objective of this work is to synthesize new molecules with biological characteristics against some infectious germs.
Methods: The method of synthesis is based on the exploitation of the reactivity of the position-1 of the benzimidazole. It consisted of reacting the bis-benzimidazole 5 with the 1,2-dicloroethane in a solution of NaOH 2N (6,4%). The compound 6 is refluxed with ethanol with the different thioaryls to lead to compounds 7.
Results: Thus, a series of molecules derived from bis-benzimidazoles were synthesized including N-alkylated 6 and 7a-d. The characterization of these newly synthesized compounds was performed by NMR (1H and 13C) and mass spectroscopy methods.
Conclusion: The purified and characterized compounds 6 and 7a-d allow the development of a new chemical class of anti-infectives.
PROPHYLACTIC LIPID LOWERING EFFECTS OF AQUEOUS EXTRACT OF EMILIA PREATEMISSA ON CARBON TETRACHLORIDE (CCL4)-INDUCED HYPERLIPIDEMIC ALBINO RATS
Authors: ALLI SMITH YEMISI RUFINA , ALUKO BUKOLA TOLA , FAYOMI SAMUEL IDOWU , OJO OLAJUMOKE OMOLARA 
Published: June 2021

Objective: Hyperlipidemia has been described as one of the greatest risk factors contributing to the prevalence and severity of cardiovascular diseases which has been identified as a primary cause of death. This study evaluates the lipid-lowering effects of aqueous extract of Emilia praetermissa (EP) leaves.
Methods: The investigation was carried out on rats induced with Carbon tetrachloride (CCl4 1 ml/kg body weight), pretreated with the aqueous extracts of Emilia praetermissa and then compared with a standard hypolipidemic drug, Simvastatin. The effects of Emilia praetermissa on the lipid profile were assessed by measuring the levels of total cholesterol, triglyceride, low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol. The effect on HMGCoA Reductase and Lecithine Cholesterol Acyltransferase (LCAT), which are important enzymes in lipid metabolism were also evaluated in the plasma, liver and heart of albino rats.
Results: Administration of 50, 100 and 200 mg/kg doses of aqueous extract of Emilia praetermissa leaves led to a significant reduction (P<0.05) in total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, triglyceride levels and a significant increase (P<0.05) in HDL cholesterol in the tissues in a manner close to that of Normal and Standard control group. Emilia praetermissa aqueous extract led to a significant increase (P<0.05) in the activity of LCAT and inhibition of HMGCoA reductase.
Conclusion: These results suggest that Emilia praetermissa leaves could play a cardioprotective role and probably serve as a new potential natural product for the management of hyperlipidema. Further investigations are warranted to elucidate the mechanism of its lipid-lowering action.
PASANG SURUT SOSIAL EKONOMI PETANI CENGKEH DI NAGARI KOTO ANAU, KEC. LEMBANG JAYA, KAB. SOLOK 1960-2011
Authors: Yoserizal Yoserizal , Sabar Sabar , Witrianto Witrianto 
Published: June 2021

This research aim to the dynamic of socio-economic of farmers clove in nagari Koto Anau during 1960-2011. The purpose is to describe farmers clove life before and after 1960, marketing strategy of clove, and effect of clove to farmers socio-economic 1960-2011. Research conducted with four steps, heuristic, critical resources, interpretation and histografy. Data collected by interview with clove farmers. Secondary sources that support this study were obtained from library research. Penelitian ini mengkaji tentang dinamika yang terjadi dalam kehidupan sosial ekonomi petani cengkeh di nagari Koto Anau pada tahun 1960-2011. Tujuan penelitian ini untuk menjelaskan tentang kehidupan petani cengkeh Koto Anau sebelum tahun 1960 dan sesudah tahun 1960, strategi pemasaran cengkeh di koto anau, pengaruh tanaman cengkeh terhadap kehidupan sosial ekonomi petani Koto Anau tahun 1960-2011. Penelitian dilakukan dengan empat tahap, yaitu heuristic, kritik sumber, interpretasi dan histografi. Pengumpulan data dilakukan melalui wawancara dengan beberapa informan, yaitu petani cengkeh di nagari Koto Anau. Sumber sekunder yang menunjang penelitian ini diperoleh dari riset pustaka.
PERAN PERANTAU TERHADAP PEMBANGUNAN DI JORONG GALOGANDANG, NAGARI III KOTO KEC. RAMBATAN KAB. TANAH DATAR
Authors: Emita Vivi , Zusmelia Zusmelia , Marleni Marleni 
Published: June 2021

Marantau is a tradition of Minangkabau society. Likewise with Galogandang society, apart from wander into a tradition of economic factors and natural conditions as well as a stimulus for people to wander Galogandang. Factors livelihood homogeneous and inadequate fulfillment of everyday life so that people Galogandang 70% Barada was overseas. Analysis in this study using the theory of rational choice. The approach used is qualitative approach with descriptive method. Informants in this study is masayarkat and strangers Galogandang. Data collection techniques, observation, interviews, and documents. Analysis of the data used in this research is the analysis of qualitative data that is interactive analysis proposed by Miles and Huberman. From the results of this study concluded that the role of migrants to the development of Nagari in Jorong Galogandang can be divided into two parts, namely, the development of physically seen an increase in development such as the construction of the Grand Mosque, mosque, TPA, bakl sources of clean water, and non-physical looks Scholarships the education of children of school achievement. Viewed wander impact on socio-economic, such as construction of houses is getting better, and people's incomes Galogandang that no longer depend on pertaniann only.Merantau merupakan suatu tradisi masyarakat Minangkabau. Demikian halnya dengan masyarakat Galogandang, selain dari merantau menjadi suatu tradisi faktor ekonomi dan keadaan alam juga sebagai pendorong bagi masyarakat Galogandang untuk merantau. Faktor mata pencaharian hidup yang bersifat homogen dan kurang mencukupi pemenuhan kebutuhan hidup sehari-hari sehingga masyarakat Galogandang 70% barada di rantau. Analisa pada penelitian ini menggunakan teori pilihan rasional. Pendekatan yang digunakan adalah pendekatan kualitatif dengan metode penelitian deskriptif. Informan pada penelitian ini adalah masyarakat dan perantau Galogandang. Teknik pengumpulan data, observasi lapangan, wawancara, dan dokumen. Analisis data yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah analisis data kualitatif yaitu analisis interaktif yang dikemukakan oleh Miles dan Huberman. Dari hasil penelitian dapat disimpulkan, bahwa peran perantau terhadap pembangunan Nagari di Jorong Galogandang dapat dibagi atas dua bagian yaitu, pembangunan dari segi fisik terlihat peningkatan pembangunan seperti pembangunan Mesjid, mushala, TPA, bak sumber air bersih, dan non fisik terlihat dengan adanya beasiswa pendidikan anak-anak yang sekolah berprestasi. Dilihat dampak merantau terhadap sosial ekonomi masyarakat seperti pembangunan rumah penduduk yang semakin bagus, dan pendapatan masyarakat Galogandang yang tidak lagi bergantung pada pertanian saja.
DARI PETANI KE PENAMBANG; PERUBAHAN SOSIAL EKONOMI DI JORONG KOTO PANJANG, NAGARI LIMO KOTO, KABUPATEN SIJUNJUNG
Authors: Sari Melta Ardila , Abbas Ardi , Rahmad Darmairal 
Published: June 2021

This paper discusses the socio-economic changes are turning farmers livelihoods to miners in Jorong Koto Panjang. This reasearch background of the rice made in gold mines so that a shift of livelihoods, and cousing consumer behavior. The mining activities are at risk of exhaustion of the gold content, on the one hand the life of the community is still running. This condition has implications for the socioeconomic status of the family owners of the fields after the gold miner. Therefore, in this paper seeks to unravel the activities of miners, and to describe the socio-economic conditions of the post-mining of gold miners. This study uses qualitative research and descriptive. Informal election in this study using purposive sampling technique. This type of data is primary data and secondary data. Data collection is observation, interviews. The results of the post-mining research of gold in no tackling, which has exhausted tilled rice fields be left just like that becomes a swamp and sand. Post-mining social status housewife, taxi of motorcydrivers, farm workers and laborers gold miner. Also a decline in revenue.Tulisan ini membahas perubahan sosial ekonomi para petani yang beralih mata pencarian menjadi penambang di Jorong Koto Panjang Kecamatan. Penelitian ini di latarbelakangi oleh sawah yang di jadikan tambang emas sehinga terjadi peralihan mata pencarian masyarakat, serta menimbulkan perilaku konsumtif. Aktifitas penambangan ini beresiko, seperti habisnya kandungan emas, disatu sisi kehidupan masyarakat tetap berjalan. Kondisi ini berimplikasi kepada status sosial ekonomi keluarga pemilik sawah pasca penambang emas. Oleh karena itu, dalam tulisan ini berupaya mengurai aktifitas penambang emas, serta mendeskripsikan kondisi sosial ekonomi penambang pasca penambangan emas. Penelitian ini mengunakan penelitian kualitatif dengan tipe deskriptif. Pemilihan informal dalam penelitian ini mengunakan tehnik purposive sampling. Jenis data adalah data primer dan data skunder. Metode pengumpulan data dilakukan dalam dua cara: observasi, wawancara. Hasil penelitian pasca penambangan emas tidak ada penanggulangannya, sawah yang telah habis digarap dibiarakan begitu saja menjadi rawa dan pasir. Status sosial pascapenambangan jadi ibu rumah tangga tukang ojek, buruh tani dan buruh penambang emas. Juga terjadi penurunan pendapatan.
MOTIVASI DAN STRATEGI KELUARGA MISKIN NAGARI TALU, KAB. PASAMAN BARAT MELANJUTKAN PENDIDIKAN ANAK KE PERGURUAN TINGGI
Authors: Sari Cici Rahma , Elvawati Elvawati , Anggreta Dian Kurnia 
Published: June 2021

Poverty described as a lack of income to fulfill the basic necessities of life. One way to reduce poverty is education. Education is not only a means of forming human resources with high competitiveness, but expected to also determine the occurrence of various social changes. Poverty makes it difficult for people to get a better education. It’s caused by education cost is expensive in general, and not all parents are able to finance their child to studying. In Nagari Talu, 15% of poor parents send their children to college. This paper describes the motive and strategy of poor parents sent their children to college. This research was conducted with a qualitative approach and descriptive type. Informants were selected by proposive. Data collected through observation, interviews and study document. The result showing the parents motivation is to change the fate and environmental factors. The parents strategy is double living, assistance from extended family, borrowing and seek scholarships. Kemiskinan lazimnya digambarkan sebagai kekurangan pendapatan untuk memenuhi kebutuhan hidup yang pokok. Salah satu jalan untuk keluar dari kemiskinan adalah pendidikan. Pendidikan bukan saja sebuah alat pembentuk sumber daya manusia yang berdaya saing tinggi, melainkan diharapkan juga ikut menentukan terjadinya berbagai perubahan sosial. Namun kemiskinan membuat masyarakat sulit untuk mendapatkan pendidikan yang lebih baik. Hal ini dikarenakan biaya pendidikan pada umumnya mahal dan tidak semua orang tua mampu membiayai studi anaknya. Di Nagari Talu 15% orang tua menyekolahkan anaknya ke pergurun tinggi dengan kondisi kehidupan mereka miskin. Tulisan ini mendeskripsikan strategi orang tua miskin melanjutkan pendidikan anaknya ke perguruan tinggi. Penelitian ini dilakukan dengan pendekatan kualitatif dan tipe deskriptif. Informan penelitian dipilih secara proposive. Dengan proses pengumpulan data melalui observasi, wawancara dan studi dokumen. Penelitian menunjukkan bahwa motivasi orang tua dalam melanjutkan studi anaknya ke perguruan tinggi adalah untuk untuk merubah nasib dan faktor lingkungan. Adapun strategi yang digunakan orang tua meanjutkan studi anaknya keperguruan tinggi adalah dengan pola nafkah ganda, bantuan dari keluarga luas, meminjam dan mengusahakan beasiswa.
PENGEMIS ANAK DI PASAR RAYA PADANG, SUMATERA BARAT
Authors: Eka Putri Mira Dona , Yulkardi Yulkardi , Elfemi Nilda 
Published: June 2021

This research is motivated many children become beggars in Pasar Raya Padang. Children are supposed to be from morning till noon at school, but in realita, a lot of them are also found to work as beggars on the streets. Study aimed to describe : (1) Opinion of the nuclear family (parents) internally about children working as beggars in the Kingdom Market Padang, (2) external opinion families, about children who work as beggars in Pasar Raya Padang , (3) Causes of child Begging.This research was conducted for three months ie from December to February. From the results of research in the field shows that the causes of child begging in Pasar Raya Padang caused by several things: (1) The opinion of parents whose children work as beggars said that, it is risky and unsafe. (2) The opinion of the child beggars external parties include family, peer opinion is that amplifies the children to become beggars. (3) The opinion of other factors beyond the family as a second opinion includes the school , neighbors and community leaders, there are some people who think negatively and most positively to the beggar child labor. (4) Knowledge and understanding of the life of the child beggars begging. (5) Analysis of the combination internal and external).Penelitian ini dilatarbelakangi banyaknya anak-anak yang menjadi pengemis di Pasar Raya Padang. Anak-anak yang seharusnya dari pagi sampai siang berada disekolah, namun pada realitasnya, banyak juga mereka ditemukan dijalanan bekerja sebagai pengemis. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendeskripsikan : (1) Pendapat keluarga inti (orang tua) secara internal tentang anak bekerja sebagai pengemis di Pasar Raya Padang; (2) Pendapat pihak eksternal keluarga, tentang anak yang bekerja sebagai pengemis di Pasar Raya Padang; (3) Faktor Penyebab Anak Mengemis. Dari hasil penelitian di lapangan menunjukkan bahwa faktor penyebab anak mengemis di Pasar Raya Padang disebabkan oleh beberapa hal yaitu : (1) Pendapat orang tua yang anaknya bekerja sebagai pengemis mengatakan bahwa, hal tersebut penuh resiko dan tidak aman. (2) Pendapat pihak eksternal keluarga pengemis anak meliputi, pendapat teman sebaya merupakan pihak yang menguatkan anak untuk menjadi pengemis. (3) Pendapat dari faktor lain diluar keluarga sebagai second opini meliputi pihak sekolah, tetangga dan tokoh masyarakat, sebagian pihak ada yang berpendapat negatif dan sebagian positif terhadap pekerja pengemis anak. (4) Pengetahuan dan pemahaman pengemis anak tentang kehidupan mengemis. (5) Analisis kombinasi (internal dan eksternal).
Strategi Organisasi Formal Menjaga Ketahanan Institusi Lokal Di Pasar Raya Padang
Authors: Marleni Marleni 
Published: June 2021

Market is an institution that was important in economic institutions. In addition, the market also a place of social and economic activity, the market serves to confront the economic players. Market and function as an economic facilities the benchmark for the sake of s income in the region . Problems traditional markets complex, all these problems rises on the weakness in traditional market management. Problems at the traditional market will cause endurance markets be weak. After the earthquake 2009 in west sumatera, problems at traditional markets especially in the Padang city of the getting uncontrollable. This article will review the strategy of a formal organization namely the office of market to persistence in maintaining traditional markets. As for strategy is provided by office of market to persistence in maintaining traditional markets include: a) infrastructure improvements, b) allocate time trading, c) moving fruit traders to duta merlin street , d ) guidance market traders