bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
How Many SARS-CoV-2–Infected People Require Hospitalization? Using Random Sample Testing to Better Inform Preparedness Efforts
Authors: Menachemi Nir , Dixon Brian E. , Wools-Kaloustian Kara K. , Yiannoutsos Constantin T. , Halverson Paul K. 
Published: March 2021

Context:
Existing hospitalization ratios for COVID-19 typically use case counts in the denominator, which problematically underestimates total infections because asymptomatic and mildly infected persons rarely get tested. As a result, surge models that rely on case counts to forecast hospital demand may be inaccurately influencing policy and decision-maker action.

Objective:
Based on SARS-CoV-2 prevalence data derived from a statewide random sample (as opposed to relying on reported case counts), we determine the infection-hospitalization ratio (IHR), defined as the percentage of infected individuals who are hospitalized, for various demographic groups in Indiana. Furthermore, for comparison, we show the extent to which case-based hospitalization ratios, compared with the IHR, overestimate the probability of hospitalization by demographic group.

Design:
Secondary analysis of statewide prevalence data from Indiana, COVID-19 hospitalization data extracted from a statewide health information exchange, and all reported COVID-19 cases to the state health department.

Setting:
State of Indiana as of April 30, 2020.

Main Outcome Measure(s):
Demographic-stratified IHRs and case-hospitalization ratios.

Results:
The overall IHR was 2.1% and varied more by age than by race or sex. Infection-hospitalization ratio estimates ranged from 0.4% for those younger than 40 years to 9.2% for those older than 60 years. Hospitalization rates based on case counts overestimated the IHR by a factor of 10, but this overestimation differed by demographic groups, especially age.

Conclusions:
In this first study of the IHR based on population prevalence, our results can improve forecasting models of hospital demand—especially in preparation for the upcoming winter period when an increase in SARS CoV-2 infections is expected.
Access to Contraceptive Services in Puerto Rico: An Analysis of Policy and Practice Change Strategies, 2015-2018
Authors: Romero Lisa , Corrada-Rivera Rosa M. , Huertas-Pagan Xavier , Aquino-Serrano Francisco V. , Morales-Boscio Ana M. , Sanchez-Cesareo Marizaida , Acosta-Perez Edna , Mendoza Zipatly , Lathrop Eva 
Published: March 2021

Context:
During the 2016-2017 Zika virus outbreak in Puerto Rico, preventing unintended pregnancy was a primary strategy to reduce Zika-related adverse birth outcomes. The Zika Contraception Access Network (Z-CAN) was a short-term emergency response intervention that used contraception to prevent unintended pregnancy among women who chose to delay or avoid pregnancy.

Objective:
This analysis reports on the identified policy and practice change strategies to increase access to or provision of contraceptive services in Puerto Rico between 2015 and 2018.

Methods:
A policy review was conducted to document federal- and territorial-level programs with contraceptive coverage and payment policies in Puerto Rico and to identify policy and practice change. Semistructured interviews with key stakeholders in Puerto Rico were also conducted to understand perceptions of policy and practice change efforts following the Zika virus outbreak, including emergency response, local, and policy efforts to improve contraception access in Puerto Rico.

Results:
Publicly available information on federal and territorial programs with policies that facilitate access, delivery, and utilization of contraceptive coverage and family planning services in Puerto Rico to support contraceptive access was documented; however, interview results indicated that the implementation of the policies was often limited by barriers and that policy and practice changes as the result of the Zika virus outbreak were short-term.

Conclusion:
Consideration of long-term policy and practice changes related to contraceptive access is warranted. Similar analyses can be used to identify policies, practices, and perceptions in other settings in which the goal is to increase access to contraception or reduce unintended pregnancy.
Using Integrated City Data and Machine Learning to Identify and Intervene Early on Housing-Related Public Health Problems
Authors: Robb Katharine , Diaz Amigo Nicolas , Marcoux Ashley , McAteer Mike , de Jong Jorrit 
Published: March 2021

Context:
Housing is more than a physical structure—it has a profound impact on health. Enforcing housing codes is a primary strategy for breaking the link between poor housing and poor health.

Objective:
The objective of this study was to determine whether machine learning algorithms can identify properties with housing code violations at a higher rate than inspector-informed prioritization. We also show how city data can be used to describe the prevalence and location of housing-related health risks, which can inform public health policy and programs.

Setting:
This study took place in Chelsea, Massachusetts, a demographically diverse, densely populated, low-income city near Boston.

Design:
Using data from 1611 proactively inspected properties, representative of the city's housing stock, we developed machine learning models to predict the probability that a given property would have (1) any housing code violation, (2) a set of high-risk health violations, and (3) a specific violation with a high risk to health and safety (overcrowding). We generated predicted probabilities of each outcome for all residential properties in the city (N = 5989).

Results:
Housing code violations were present in 54% of inspected properties, 85% of which were classified as high-risk health violations. We predict that if the city were to use integrated city data and machine learning to identify at-risk properties, it could achieve a 1.8-fold increase in the number of inspections that identify code violations as compared with current practices.

Conclusion:
Given the strong connection between housing and health, reducing public health risk at more properties—without the need for additional inspection resources—represents an opportunity for significant public health gains. Integrated city data and machine learning can be used to describe the prevalence and location of housing-related health problems and make housing code enforcement more efficient, effective, and equitable in responding to public health threats.
Involvement of Local Health Departments in Obesity Prevention: A Scoping Review
Authors: Petrovskis Anna , Baquero Barbara , Bekemeier Betty 
Published: March 2021

Introduction:
Local health department (LHD) obesity prevention (OP) efforts, particularly by rural LHDs, are seemingly uncommon, in part, due to limited infrastructure, workforce capacity, accessible data, and available population-level interventions aimed at social determinants of health (SDOH).

Methods:
We conducted a scoping review to determine LHD roles in OP efforts and interventions. Inclusion criteria were articles including evidence-based OP and LHD leaders or staff. Articles were coded by type of LHD involvement, data use, intervention characteristics, use of an SDOH lens, and urban or rural setting.

Results:
We found 154 articles on LHD OP—52 articles met inclusion criteria. Typically, LHDs engaged in only surveillance, initial intervention development, or evaluation and were not LHD led. Data and SDOH lens use were infrequent, and interventions typically took place in urban settings.

Conclusion:
LHDs could likely play a greater role in OP and population-level interventions and use data in intervention decision making. However, literature is limited. Future research should focus on LHD capacity building, including academic-public health partnerships. Studies should include rural populations, data, and SDOH frameworks addressing “upstream” factors.
Scale-up of antiretroviral treatment access among people living with HIV in Rivers State, Nigeria, 2019--2020
Authors: Boyd Andrew T. , Ogbanufe Obinna , Onyenuobi Chibuzor , Mgbakor Ifunanya , Bachanas Pamela , Olupitan Olayemi , Umeh Clifford , Adegboye Adeoye , Owhonda Golden , Odafe Solomon , Jahun Ibrahim , Dakum Patrick , Mensah Charles , Gwamna Jerry , Onotu Dennis , Dirlikov Emilio , Williams-Sherlock Michelle , Okolo Chukwuemeka , Verinumbe Tarfa , Idakwo Stanley , Kumtap Makshwar U. , Ellerbrock Tedd , Swaminathan Mahesh 
Published: March 2021

Objective:
The aim of this study was to describe and evaluate the impact of the programme intervention of the Rivers State Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) Surge, a collaboration between the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) and the State Ministry of Health, to increase HIV case-finding and ART access in Rivers State, the state with the largest ART gap among people living with HIV (PWH) in Nigeria.

Design:
During April 2019−September 2020, the intervention included six specific strategies: using local government area-level ART gap analysis to guide case-finding; expanding targeted community testing; tailoring comprehensive key population HIV services; engaging HIV treatment programme stakeholders; synchronizing team efforts; and using near real-time data for programme action.

Methods:
Weekly reported facility and community data on tests conducted, PWH diagnosed, and PWH initiated on ART were aggregated. The total number of PWH maintained on ART was reported quarterly.

Results:
During May 2019−September 2020, the weekly number of newly diagnosed PWH initiated on ART supported by PEPFAR in Rivers State increased from 82 to 1723. During October 2019−September 2020, the monthly number of people screened for HIV testing eligibility in the community increased from 44 000 to 360 000. During April 2019−September 2020, the total number of PWH on ART supported by PEPFAR statewide increased by 3.8 times, from 26 041 to 99 733.

Conclusion:
The strategies applied by HIV program stakeholders contributed to scale-up of PWH identification and ART linkage within the Rivers State ART Surge. Continued gains through time indicate the importance of the application of a quality improvement approach to maintain programme flexibility and effectiveness.
Progress toward HIV elimination goals: trends in and projections of annual HIV testing and condom use in Africa
Authors: Nguyen Phuong T. , Gilmour Stuart , Le Phuong M. , Onishi Kazunari , Kato Kosuke , Nguyen Huy V. 
Published: March 2021

Objectives:
To estimate trends in and projections of annual HIV testing and condom use at last higher-risk sex and to calculate the probability of reaching key United Nations Programme on AIDS (UNAIDS)'s target.

Design:
We included 114 nationally-representative datasets in 38 African countries from Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys with 1 456 224 sexually active adults age 15–49 from 2003 to 2018.

Methods:
We applied Bayesian mixed effect models to estimate the coverage of annual HIV testing and condom use at last higher-risk sex for every country and year to 2030 and the probability of reaching UNAIDS testing and condom use targets of 95% coverage by 2030.

Results:
Seven countries saw downward trends in annual HIV testing and four saw decreases in condom use at higher-risk sex, whereas most countries have upward trends in both indicators. The highest coverage of testing in 2030 is predicted in Swaziland with 92.6% (95% credible interval: 74.5−98.1%), Uganda with 90.5% (72.2−97.2%), and Lesotho with 90.5% (69.4%−97.6%). Meanwhile, Swaziland, Lesotho, and Namibia will have the highest proportion of condom use in 2030 at 85.0% (57.8−96.1%), 75.6% (42.3−93.6%), and 75.5% (42.4−93.2%). The probabilities of reaching targets were very low for both HIV testing (0–28.5%) and condom use (0–12.1%).

Conclusions:
We observed limited progress on annual HIV testing and condom use at last higher-risk sex in Africa and little prospect of reaching global targets for HIV/AIDS elimination. Although some funding agencies are considering withdrawal from supporting Africa, more attention to funding and expanding testing and treatment is needed in this region.
Vaccine escape in a heterogeneous population: insights for SARS-CoV-2 from a simple model
Authors: Gog Julia R. , Hill Edward M. , Danon Leon , Thompson Robin 
Published: March 2021

AbstractAs a counter measure to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic there has been swift development and clinical trial assessment of candidate vaccines, with subsequent deployment as part of mass vaccination campaigns. However, the SARS-CoV-2 virus has demonstrated the ability to mutate and develop variants, which can modify epidemiological properties and potentially also the effectiveness of vaccines.The widespread deployment of highly effective vaccines may rapidly exert selection pressure on the SARS-CoV-2 virus directed towards mutations that escape the vaccine induced immune response. This is particularly concerning whilst infection is widespread. By developing and analysing a mathematical model of two population groupings with differing vulnerability and contact rates, we explore the impact of the deployment of vaccine amongst the population on R, cases, disease abundance and vaccine escape pressure.The results from this model illustrate two insights (i) vaccination aimed at reducing prevalence could be more effective at reducing disease than directly vaccinating the vulnerable; (ii) the highest risk for vaccine escape can occur at intermediate levels of vaccination. This work demonstrates a key principle that the careful targeting of vaccines towards particular population groups could reduce disease as much as possible whilst limiting the risk of vaccine escape.
A First Analysis of Excess Mortality in Switzerland in 2020
Authors: Locatelli Isabella , Rousson Valentin 
Published: March 2021

AbstractObjectiveTo quantify the excess all-cause mortality in Switzerland in 2020, a key indicator for assessing direct and indirect consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsUsing official data on deaths in Switzerland, all-cause mortality in 2020 was compared with that of previous years using directly standardized mortality rates, age- and sex-specific mortality rates, and life expectancy.ResultsThe standardized mortality rate was 8.6% higher in 2020 than in 2019, returning to the level observed 5-6 years ago. This increase was greater for men (10.4%) than for women (7.0%), and was statistically significant only for men over 70 years of age, and for women over 75 years of age. The decrease in life expectancy in 2020 compared to 2019 was about 1%, with a loss of 9.4 months for men and 5.1 months for women.ConclusionsThere was an excess mortality in Switzerland in 2020, linked to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, as this excess only concerned the elderly, the resulting loss of life expectancy was restricted to a few months.
Impact of booster COVID-19 vaccine for Moroccan adults: A discrete age-structured model approach
Authors: Hammoumi Aayah , Hmarrass Hanane , Qesmi Redouane 
Published: March 2021

AbstractPublic health control strategies, such as lockdown, seem to be effective in reducing the spread of the pandemic, but are ineffective as a whole since lockdown is responsible of global economic crisis and badly lived by the majority of children and adults who have developed mental health disorders and familial problems as well. Thus, the development of a vaccine against COVID-19 is needed to control this disease. We have developed a discrete age-structured model and followed the Moroccan vaccination program to assess the impact of booster vaccination targeting Moroccan adults against COVID-19. Using the derived model, we estimated some relevant model parameters related to COVID-19 using collected cumulative mortality and reported Moroccan data. A control reproduction numberRc, which determines the necessary level of vaccine uptake that lead to COVID-19 eradication is determined. Furthermore, a herd immunity threshold above which the population can be protected from COVID-19 infection is derived. Analyzing the model, sufficient and necessary conditions for the eradication of the disease are obtained as well. Next, we perform numerical simulations to study the impact of several uptake levels of the potential vaccine on the persistence and the extinction of COVID-19 pandemic. Our results show that the COVID-19 is expected to last past 2021 in the absence of a vaccination program. Moreover, a vaccination of the adult population at rate 0.6% per day needs at least 67% of vaccine efficacy and 90% of immunogenicity rate to eradicate the disease. Using Sinopharm vaccine, the herd immunity can be achieved when about half of Moroccan adult population is immunized against the COVID-19. However, using Oxford-Astrazeneca vaccine, less than 60% of adult population must be immunized against the disease to achieve the herd immunity. Finally, if vaccine efficacy is about 80% and the immunogenicity is about 50% then vaccinating adults at rate of 0.6% per day could protect roughly 22% of children from COVID-19 infection.
Female gender and knowing a person positive for COVID-19 significantly increases fear levels in the Cuban population
Authors: Broche-Pérez Yunier , Fernández-Fleites Zoylen , Fernández-Castillo Evelyn , Jiménez-Puig Elizabeth , Ferrer-Lozano Dunia , Vizcaíno-Escobar Annia , Martínez-Rodríguez Lesnay , Martín-González Reinier , Rodríguez-Martín Boris C. 
Published: March 2021

AbstractThe objective of this study was to explore the relationship between sociodemographic factors and fear of COVID-19 in a Cuban population. A web-based study with a cross-sectional design was conducted. The sample comprised 1145 participants. To explore fear, the Fear of COVID-19 Scale was used. Our results suggest that women were more likely to experience medium to high levels fear compared to men. Additionally, knowing a person positive to COVID-19 significantly increases fear levels in Cuban participants.
Motor Unit Number Index (MUNIX) of the Upper Trapezius: Reliability and Meta-Analysis
Authors: Abrahao Agessandro , Phung Liane , Fam David , Escorcio-Bezerra Marcio Luiz , Robinson Lawrence R , Jones Kelvin E , Zinman Lorne 
Published: March 2021

AbstractMotor unit number index (MUNIX) of the upper trapezius is a candidate biomarker for lower motor neuron function of the bulbar region; however, only a few studies have explored this measure in neuromuscular diseases and reliability data is incomplete. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of this measure in control participants and assessed its reliability in twenty healthy volunteers. Four studies were included with heterogeneous mean-MUNIX estimates, moderated by variability in the population’s age and MUNIX sampling technique. We demonstrated an inter- and intra-rater intraclass correlation of 0.86 and 0.94, respectively. Upper trapezius MUNIX is a reliable measure with in-between study variability moderated by age and MUNIX technique.
Imperfect integration: sensory congruency between multiple sources modulates selective decision-making processes
Authors: Krzemiński Dominik , Zhang Jiaxiang 
Published: March 2021

AbstractDecision making on the basis of multiple information sources is common. However, to what extent such decisions differ from those with a single source remains unclear. Here, we combined cognitive modelling and neural-mass modelling to characterise the neurocognitive process underlying decisionmaking with single or double information sources. Ninety-four human participants performed binary decisions to discriminate the coherent motion direction averaged across two independent apertures. Regardless the angular distance of the apertures, separating motion information into two apertures resulted in a reduction in accuracy. Our modelling results further showed that the addition of the second information source led to a lower signal-to-noise ratio of evidence accumulation with two congruent information sources, and a change in the decision strategy of speed-accuracy trade-off with two incongruent sources. Thus, our findings support a robust behavioural change in relation to multiple information sources, which have congruency-dependent impacts on selective decision-making subcomponents.
The Most Parsimonious Reconciliation Problem in the Presence of Incomplete Lineage Sorting and Hybridization is NP-Hard
Authors: LeMay Matthew , Wu Yi-Chieh , Libeskind-Hadas Ran 
Published: March 2021

AbstractThe maximum parsimony phylogenetic reconciliation problem seeks to explain incongruity between a gene phylogeny and a species phylogeny with respect to a set of evolutionary events. While the reconciliation problem is well-studied for species and gene trees subject to events such as duplication, transfer, loss, and deep coalescence, recent work has examined species phylogenies that incorporate hybridization and are thus represented by networks rather than trees. In this paper, we show that the problem of computing a maximum parsimony reconciliation for a gene tree and species network is NP-hard even when only considering deep coalescence. This result suggests that future work on maximum parsimony reconciliation for species networks should explore approximation algorithms and heuristics.
Population structure ofDrosophila suzukiiand signals of multiple invasions into the continental United States
Authors: Lewald Kyle M. , Abrieux Antoine , Wilson Derek A. , Lee Yoosook , Conner William R. , Andreazza Felipe , Beers Elizabeth H. , Burrack Hannah J. , Daane Kent M. , Diepenbrock Lauren , Drummond Francis A. , Fanning Philip D. , Gaffney Michael T. , Hesler Stephen P. , Ioriatti Claudio , Isaacs Rufus , Little Brian A. , Loeb Gregory M. , Miller Betsey , Nava Dori E. , Rendon Dalila , Sial Ashfaq A. , Silva Cherre B. da , Stockton Dara G. , Van Timmeren Steven , Wallingford Anna , Walton Vaughn M. , Wang Xingeng , Zhao Bo , Zalom Frank G. , Chiu Joanna C. 
Published: March 2021

ABSTRACTDrosophila suzukii, or spotted-wing drosophila, is now an established pest in many parts of the world, causing significant damage to numerous fruit crop industries. Native to East Asia,D. suzukiiinfestations started in the United States a decade ago, occupying a wide range of climates. To better understand invasion ecology of this pest, knowledge of past migration events, population structure, and genetic diversity is needed. To improve on previous studies examining genetic structure ofD. suzukii, we sequenced whole genomes of 237 individual flies collected across the continental U.S., as well as several representative sites in Europe, Brazil, and Asia, to identify hundreds of thousands of genetic markers for analysis. We analyzed these markers to detect population structure, to reconstruct migration events, and to estimate genetic diversity and differentiation within and among the continents. We observed strong population structure between West and East Coast populations in the U.S., but no evidence of any population structure North to South, suggesting there is no broad-scale adaptations occurring in response to the large differences in regional weather conditions. We also find evidence of repeated migration events from Asia into North America have provided increased levels of genetic diversity, which does not appear to be the case for Brazil or Europe. This large genomic dataset will spur future research into genomic adaptations underlyingD. suzukiipest activity and development of novel control methods for this agricultural pest.