bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Linear brain atrophy measures in multiple sclerosis and clinically isolated syndromes: a 30-year follow-up
Authors: Haider Lukas , Chung Karen , Birch Giselle , Eshaghi Arman , Mangesius Stephanie , Prados Ferran , Tur Carmen , Ciccarelli Olga , Barkhof Frederik , Chard Declan 
Published: March 2021

ObjectiveTo determine 30-year brain atrophy rates following clinically isolated syndromes and the relationship of atrophy in the first 5 years and clinical outcomes 25 years later.MethodsA cohort of 132 people who presented with a clinically isolated syndrome suggestive of multiple sclerosis (MS) were recruited between 1984–1987. Clinical and MRI data were collected prospectively over 30 years. Widths of the third ventricle and the medulla oblongata were used as linear atrophy measures.ResultsAt 30 years, 27 participants remained classified as having had a clinically isolated syndrome, 34 converted to relapsing remitting MS, 26 to secondary progressive MS and 16 had died due to MS. The mean age at baseline was 31.7 years (SD 7.5) and the mean disease duration was 30.8 years (SD 0.9). Change in medullary and third ventricular width within the first 5 years, allowing for white matter lesion accrual and Expanded Disability Status Scale increases over the same period, predicted clinical outcome measures at 30 years. 1 mm of medullary atrophy within the first 5 years increased the risk for secondary progressive MS or MS related death by 30 years by 583% (OR 5.83, 95% CI 1.74 to 19.61, p<0.005), using logistic regression.ConclusionsOur findings show that brain regional atrophy within 5 years of a clinically isolated syndrome predicts progressive MS or a related death, and disability 25 years later.
Hypoperfusion intensity ratio for refinement of elderly patient selection for endovascular thrombectomy
Authors: Monteiro Andre , Cortez Gustavo M , Greco Elena , Aghaebrahim Amin , Sauvageau Eric , Hanel Ricardo A 
Published: March 2021

BackgroundPatients ≥80-year-old presenting with large-vessel occlusion treated with endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) have worst outcomes than younger individuals. Improved patient selection in this age range is warranted. We investigated the hypoperfusion-intensity-ratio (HIR) and its associations with baseline parameters and clinical outcomes in a cohort ≥80-year-old to assess whether it could an option in improving their selection for EVT.MethodsWe performed retrospective analysis of consecutive patients treated with EVT at our center between 2015 and 2019. Inclusion criteria were age ≥80-year-old, any baseline modified Rankin Scale (mRS), and anterior circulation occlusion. Demographic information, baseline characteristics, clinical data, and radiological imaging parameters were collected. HIR was dichotomized into favorable and unfavorable based on median value of the cohort. Good outcome was defined as mRS ≤2 at 90-days.ResultsWe included 82 patients. HIR was significantly correlated with baseline ischemic core volume, NIHSS, and time-of-onset to groin puncture. Good outcome was achieved in 18.3% and mortality occurred in 34.1%. In patients with baseline mRS ≤2, the rate of good outcome was significantly higher in favorable vs unfavorable HIR (52.6% vs 20%, P=0.02). In shift-analysis, unfavorable HIR was significantly associated with downshift to mRS ≥3 (P=0.02). Regression analysis found lower baseline mRS (P=0.009), higher ASPECTS (P=0.02), complete recanalization (P=0.04), and lower HIR (P=0.02) to be associated with increased rate of good outcome. Hierarchical regression showed HIR to independently predict good outcome.ConclusionsIn our cohort, HIR was correlated with baseline parameters and predicted clinical outcomes. Future studies should investigate perfusion parameters such as HIR to improve the selection of elderly patients for EVT.
Impact of COVID-19 national lockdown on asthma exacerbations: interrupted time-series analysis of English primary care data
Authors: Shah Syed A , Quint Jennifer K , Nwaru Bright I , Sheikh Aziz 
Published: March 2021

Background
The impact of COVID-19 and ensuing national lockdown on asthma exacerbations is unclear.

Methods
We conducted an interrupted time-series (lockdown on 23 March 2020 as point of interruption) analysis in asthma cohort identified using a validated algorithm from a national-level primary care database, the Optimum Patient Care Database. We derived asthma exacerbation rates for every week and compared exacerbation rates in the period: January to August 2020 with a pre-COVID-19 period and January to August 2016–2019. Exacerbations were defined as asthma-related hospital attendance/admission (including accident and emergency visit), or an acute course of oral corticosteroids with evidence of respiratory review, as recorded in primary care. We used a generalised least squares modelling approach and stratified the analyses by age, sex, English region and healthcare setting.

Results
From a database of 9 949 387 patients, there were 100 165 patients with asthma who experienced at least one exacerbation during 2016–2020. Of 278 996 exacerbation episodes, 49 938 (17.9%) required hospital visit. Comparing pre-lockdown to post-lockdown period, we observed a statistically significant reduction in the level (−0.196 episodes per person-year; p<0.001; almost 20 episodes for every 100 patients with asthma per year) of exacerbation rates across all patients. The reductions in level in stratified analyses were: 0.005–0.244 (healthcare setting, only those without hospital attendance/admission were significant), 0.210–0.277 (sex), 0.159–0.367 (age), 0.068–0.590 (region).

Conclusions
There has been a significant reduction in attendance to primary care for asthma exacerbations during the pandemic. This reduction was observed in all age groups, both sexes and across most regions in England.
About this title - Pannotia to Pangaea: Neoproterozoic and Paleozoic Orogenic Cycles in the Circum-Atlantic Region
Authors: Murphy J. B. , Strachan R. A. , Quesada C. 
Published: March 2021

Special Publication 503 celebrates the career of R. Damian Nance. It features 27 articles, with more than 110 authors based in 18 different countries. These articles include contributions on the processes responsible for the formation and breakup of supercontinents, the controversies concerning the status of Pannotia as a supercontinent, the generation and destruction of Paleozoic oceans, and the development of the Appalachian-Ouachitan- Caledonide-Variscan orogens. In addition to field work, the approaches to gain that understanding include examining the relationships between stratigraphy and structural geology, precise geochronology, geochemical and isotopic fingerprinting, geodynamic modelling, regional syntheses, palaeogeographic modelling, and good old-fashioned arm-waving!
The wide range of topics mirrors the breadth and depth of Damian's contributions, interests and expertise. Like Damian's papers, the contributions range from the predominantly conceptual to detailed field work, but all are targeted at understanding important tectonic processes. Their scope not only varies in scale from global to regional to local, but also in the range of approaches required to gain that understanding.
Improving Graduation Rates in the Two-to-Four Pathway to Bachelor's Degrees
Authors: Zhu Zhengren 
Published: March 2021

Abstract
In the United States, transferring from a two-year program to a four-year program has become an increasingly important route toward a bachelor's degree. However, the pathway has an extremely high attrition rate. Utilizing two recent institutional reforms in the University System of Georgia, I show that allowing community colleges to offer bachelor's degrees and consolidating institutions increase two-year students’ bachelor's degree attainment by around 3 percentage points, which represents a 20 percent improvement. Both reforms increased two-to-four transfer rates, and institutional consolidations also increased bachelor's degree attainment, conditional on transferring. Moreover, I find evidence that reduced loss of credits during transfer is the driving force of the improvements. In particular, the reforms reduced credits lost during transfer by around 36 percent.
Polemics on Iconoclasm and the Predetermined Terms of Life in the Homiletical and Liturgical Works of Theodore the Studite
Authors: Baranov Vladimir 
Published: March 2021

Abstract
Although Theodore the Studite is primarily known as a monastic leader and champion of icon-veneration, he was also a prolific homilist and hymnographer. This aspect of his literary heritage is discussed from the perspective of the theological debates during the time of Theodore the Studite’s life – not only the Iconoclastic Controversy which repeatedly surfaced in his writings, but also the debate on the predetermination of the terms of human life. A focus will be made on the extent the turbulent events of his life and polemics he was engaged in made an impact on his homiletical and liturgical works.
Cosmological Polemics in Against Eunomius II, 72–76 of Gregory of Nyssa
Authors: Biriukov Dmitry 
Published: March 2021

Abstract
I analyze the polemically charged exposition of classical cosmologies by Gregory of Nyssa in Against Eunomius II, 72–76, and identify probable sources for this passage and the targets of Gregory’s criticism of classical cosmologies, manifested in this passage. In Against Eunomius II, 73–75, Gregory presents the Aristotelian cosmology and polemicizes with it. My analysis shows three avenues of Gregory’s criticism of the Aristotelian cosmology, which are manifested in this passage. As my analysis of Against Eunomius II, 76 shows, in this passage, Gregory summarizes and criticizes the Stoic natural-philosophical and cosmological doctrine that there is the limitless void beyond the limits of the cosmos, in which cosmos moves (probably by expanding and contracting). I identify two points in Gregory’s criticism of this doctrine. Finally, I suggest that the immediate Gregory’s source regarding this Stoic doctrine was a treatise of Cleomedes.
From the Demotic to the Literary
Authors: Sartori Paolo 
Published: March 2021

Abstract
Understanding why Persian ceded ground to the vernacular Turkic in Central Asia in the 18th century is key to detecting major cultural realignments in the Balkans-to-Bengal complex. To date, however, focus has been predominantly on the constraining of Persian’s hegemonic status in Asia, its shaping colonial knowledge, and its stamping an imprint on other literary languages in post-colonial situations. Taking this literature as a point of departure, I change perspective and examine the process whereby a vernacular idiom acquired prominence prior to the onset of Russian colonization. By setting aside the issue of scope of Persian, I turn to an exploration of writing practices in Turkic in the early modern period in Khorezm, a major oasis in Central Asia within the territory of what is today Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan. Interpreted in the literature so far as an isolated phenomenon, the ascendance of Chaghatay Turkic in Khorezm has been in fact studied in isolation from similar processes of vernacularization. By reconnecting writing practices in this oasis to patterns of literary consumption in Central Eurasia more generally, I point to an area of shared vernacular sensibilities across Khorezm, the Middle Volga, the Kazakh Steppe and the Tarim Basin. Furthermore, I argue that the promotion of the vernacular among Turkic-speaking Muslims in the Russian empire in the early 20th century was built on earlier processes of elevation of a written culture from the demotic to the literary.
Extreme Rainfall Events in the Macrometropolis of São Paulo: Trends and Connection with Climate Oscillations
Authors: Machado Carolyne B. , Campos Thamiris L. O. B. , Abou Rafee Sameh A. , Martins Jorge A. , Grimm Alice M. , de Freitas Edmilson D. 
Published: March 2021

AbstractIn this work, the trend of extreme rainfall indices in the macrometropolis of São Paulo (MMSP) was analyzed and correlated with large-scale climatic oscillations. A cluster analysis divided a set of rain gauge stations into three homogeneous regions within MMSP, according to the annual cycle of rainfall. The entire MMSP presented an increase in the total annual rainfall, from 1940 to 2016, of 3 mm yr−1 on average, according to a Mann–Kendall test. However, there is evidence that the more urbanized areas have a greater increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events while coastal and mountainous areas, and regions outside large urban areas, have increasing rainfall in a better-distributed way throughout the year. The evolution of extreme rainfall (95th percentile) is significantly correlated with climatic indices. In the center-north part of the MMSP, the combination of Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) explains 45% of the P95th increase during the wet season. In turn, in southern MMSP, the temperature of South Atlantic (TSA), the AAO, El Niño–South Oscillation (ENSO), and the multidecadal oscillation of the North Atlantic (AMO) better explain the increase in extreme rainfall (R2 = 0.47). However, the same is not observed during the dry season, in which the P95th variation was only negatively correlated with the AMO, undergoing a decrease from the 1970s until the beginning of this century. The occurrence of rainy anomalous months proved to be more frequent and associated with climatic indices than was the occurrence of dry months.
Was the 2015 North Atlantic subpolar cold anomaly predictable?
Authors: Maroon Elizabeth A. , Yeager Stephen G. , Danabasoglu Gokhan , Rosenbloom Nan 
Published: March 2021

AbstractThe subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) experienced extreme cold during 2015, an event often called the “cold blob”. The evolution of this event in the Community Earth System Model version 1 Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble (CESM1-DPLE) hindcast initialized in November 2014 is compared to observations. This CESM1-DPLE hindcast failed to predict cold conditions during 2015 despite already cold SPNA initial conditions and despite having high sea surface temperature skill in the SPNA in all other years. The goal of this paper is to understand what led to this prediction failure in order to provide insight for future decadal prediction efforts. Our analysis shows that strongly positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) conditions during winter and spring 2015 likely sustained the cold blob but were not simulated in any CESM1-DPLE members. We examine the rarity of the 2015 event using the CESM1-DPLE’s uninitialized counterpart, the CESM1 Large Ensemble (CESM1-LE). Results from the CESM1-LE indicate that the exceptional state of the observed NAO in the winter of 2015 is at least part of the explanation for why this event was not encompassed in the CESM1-DPLE spread. To test another possibility — that deficiencies in the initial conditions degraded the prediction — we performed additional hindcasts using the CESM1-DPLE protocol but different initial conditions. Altering the initial conditions did not improve the simulation of the 2015 cold blob, and in some cases, degraded it. Given the difficulty of predicting this event, this case could be a useful testbed for future prediction system development.
Effect of Precipitation Sampling Error on Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction: Anticipating Operational Rapid-Update Polarimetric Weather Radars
Authors: Wen Yixin , Schuur Terry , Vergara Humberto , Kuster Charles 
Published: March 2021

AbstractQuantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) at high spatiotemporal resolution are essential for flash flood forecasting, especially in urban environments and headwater areas. An accurate quantification of precipitation is directly related to the temporal and spatial sampling of the precipitation system. The advent of phased array radar (PAR) technology, a potential next-generation weather radar, can provide updates that are at least 4-5 times faster than the conventional WSR-88D scanning rate. In this study, data collected by the KOUN WSR-88D radar with ~1 minute temporal resolution is used as an approximation of data that a future PAR system could provide to force the Ensemble Framework for Flash Flood Forecasting (EF5) hydrologic model. To assess the effect of errors resulting from temporal and spatial sampling of precipitation on flash flood warnings, KOUN precipitation data (1-km/1-min) is used to generate precipitation products at other spatial/temporal resolutions commonly used in hydrologic models, such as those provided by conventional WSR-88D radar (1-km/5-min), spaced-based observations (10-km/30-min), and hourly rainfall products (1-km/60-min). The effect of precipitation sampling errors on flash flood warnings are then examined and quantified by using discharge simulated from KOUN (1-km/1-min) as truth to assess simulations conducted using other generated coarser spatial/temporal resolutions of other precipitation products. Our results show that: 1) observations with coarse spatial and temporal sampling can cause large errors in quantification of the amount, intensity, and distribution of precipitation, 2) time series of precipitation products show that QPE peak values decrease as the temporal resolution gets coarser, and 3) the effect of precipitation sampling error on flash flood forecasting is large in headwater areas and decrease quickly as drainage area increases.
Calibration and Retrieval of Aerosol Optical Properties Measured with Coherent Doppler Lidar
Authors: Dai Guangyao , Wang Xiaoye , Sun Kangwen , Wu Songhua , Song Xiaoquan , Li Rongzhong , Yin Jiaping , Wang Xitao 
Published: March 2021

AbstractA practical method for instrumental calibration and aerosol optical properties retrieval based on coherent Doppler lidar (CDL) and sun photometer is presented in this paper. To verify its feasibility and accuracy, this method is applied into three field experiments in 2019 and 2020. In this method, multiwavelength (440, 670, 870, and 1020 nm) aerosol optical depth (AOD) from sun-photometer measurements are used to estimate AOD at 1550 nm and calibrate integrated CDL backscatter signal. Then it is validated by comparing the retrieved calibrated AOD at 1550 nm from CDL signal and that from sun-photometer measurements. Good agreement between them with the correlation of 0.96, the RMSE of 0.0085, and the mean relative error of 22% is found. From the comparison results of these three experiments, sun photometer is verified to be an effective reference instrument for the calibration of CDL return signal and the aerosol optical properties measurement with CDL is feasible. It is expected to promote the study on the aerosol flux and transport mechanism in the planetary boundary layer with the widely deployed CDLs.
On the Origin of Rotation Derived from Super Rapid Scan Satellite Imagery at the Cloud-Tops of Severe Deep Convection
Authors: Apke Jason M. , Mecikalski John R. 
Published: March 2021

AbstractSevere thunderstorms routinely exhibit adjacent maxima and minima in cloud-top vertical vorticity (CTV) downstream of overshooting tops within flow fields retrieved using sequences of fine-temporal resolution (1-min) geostationary operational environmental satellite (GOES)-R series imagery. Little is known about the origin of this so-called “CTV couplet” signature, and whether the signature is the result of flow field derivational artifacts. Thus, the CTV signature’s relevance to research and operations is currently ambiguous. Within this study, we explore the origin of near-cloud-top rotation using an idealized supercell numerical model simulation. Employing an advanced dense optical flow algorithm, image stereoscopy, and numerical model background wind approximations, the artifacts common with cloud-top flow field derivation are removed from two supercell case studies sampled by GOES-R imagers. It is demonstrated that the CTV couplet originates from tilted and converged horizontal vorticity that is baroclinically generated in the upper levels (above 10 km) immediately downstream of the overshooting top. This baroclinic generation would not be possible without a strong and sustained updraft, implying an indirect relationship to rotationally-maintained supercells. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that CTV couplets derived with optical flow algorithms originate from actual rotation within the storm anvils in the case studies explored here, though supercells with opaque above anvil cirrus plumes and strong anvil-level negative vertical wind shear may produce rotation signals as an artifact without quality control. Artifact identification and quality control is discussed further here for future research and operations use.
Perceptions of Climate Risk and Use of Climate Risk Information by Natural Resource Conservation Stakeholders Participating in ADVANCE Projects in Asia and Latin America
Authors: De Mel Manishka , Solecki William , Horton Radley , Bartlett Ryan , Hehmeyer Abigail , Martin Shaun , Rosenzweig Cynthia 
Published: March 2021

AbstractIntegrating climate risk information into resilience-building activities in the field is important to ensure that adaptation is based on the best available science. Despite this, many challenges exist when developing, communicating, and incorporating climate risk information. There are limited resources on how stakeholders perceive risks, use risk information, and what barriers exist to limit knowledge integration. This paper seeks to define the following: 1) What do conservation stakeholders consider to be the most significant climate risks they face now and possibly in the future? 2) What have been the most significant barriers to their using climate risk information? 3) What sources and types of knowledge would be most useful for these managers to overcome these barriers? A survey was conducted among stakeholders (n = 224) associated with World Wildlife Fund projects in tropical and subtropical countries. A very high proportion of stakeholders used climate risk information and yet faced integration-related challenges, which included too much uncertainty and the lack of a relevant scale for planning. The main factors preventing the use of climate risk information in decision-making were unavailability of climate risk information, no or limited financial or human resources available to respond, lack of organizational mandate or support, and no or limited institutional incentives. Comparing perceived current and future risks revealed a decline in concern for some future climate hazards. Survey respondents identified scientific reports, climate scientists, and online sources as the most useful information sources of climate risk information, while (i) maps and illustrations; (ii) scenarios format; and (iii) data tables, graphs, and charts were identified as user-friendly formats.