TILTomorrow today: dynamic factors predicting changes in intracranial pressure treatment intensity after traumatic brain injury
Authors: Bhattacharyay Shubhayu , van Leeuwen Florian D. , Beqiri Erta , Åkerlund Cecilia A. I. , Wilson Lindsay , Steyerberg Ewout W. , Nelson David W. , Maas Andrew I. R. , Menon David K. , Ercole Ari ,   the CENTER-TBI investigators and participants, Åkerlund Cecilia , Amrein Krisztina , Andelic Nada , Andreassen Lasse , Anke Audny , Antoni Anna , Audibert Gérard , Azouvi Philippe , Azzolini Maria Luisa , Bartels Ronald , Barzó Pál , Beauvais Romuald , Beer Ronny , Bellander Bo-Michael , Belli Antonio , Benali Habib , Berardino Maurizio , Beretta Luigi , Blaabjerg Morten , Bragge Peter , Brazinova Alexandra , Brinck Vibeke , Brooker Joanne , Brorsson Camilla , Buki Andras , Bullinger Monika , Cabeleira Manuel , Caccioppola Alessio , Calappi Emiliana , Calvi Maria Rosa , Cameron Peter , Lozano Guillermo Carbayo , Carbonara Marco , Cavallo Simona , Chevallard Giorgio , Chieregato Arturo , Citerio Giuseppe , Clusmann Hans , Coburn Mark , Coles Jonathan , Cooper Jamie D. , Correia Marta , Čović Amra , Curry Nicola , Czeiter Endre , Czosnyka Marek , Dahyot-Fizelier Claire , Dark Paul , Dawes Helen , De Keyser Véronique , Degos Vincent , Corte Francesco Della , Boogert Hugo den , Depreitere Bart , Đilvesi Đula , Dixit Abhishek , Donoghue Emma , Dreier Jens , Dulière Guy-Loup , Ercole Ari , Esser Patrick , Ezer Erzsébet , Fabricius Martin , Feigin Valery L. , Foks Kelly , Frisvold Shirin , Furmanov Alex , Gagliardo Pablo , Galanaud Damien , Gantner Dashiell , Gao Guoyi , George Pradeep , Ghuysen Alexandre , Giga Lelde , Glocker Ben , Golubovic Jagoš , Gomez Pedro A. , Gratz Johannes , Gravesteijn Benjamin , Grossi Francesca , Gruen Russell L. , Gupta Deepak , Haagsma Juanita A. , Haitsma Iain , Helbok Raimund , Helseth Eirik , Horton Lindsay , Huijben Jilske , Hutchinson Peter J. , Jacobs Bram , Jankowski Stefan , Jarrett Mike , Jiang Ji-yao , Johnson Faye , Jones Kelly , Karan Mladen , Kolias Angelos G. , Kompanje Erwin , Kondziella Daniel , Kornaropoulos Evgenios , Koskinen Lars-Owe , Kovács Noémi , Kowark Ana , Lagares Alfonso , Lanyon Linda , Laureys Steven , Lecky Fiona , Ledoux Didier , Lefering Rolf , Legrand Valerie , Lejeune Aurelie , Levi Leon , Lightfoot Roger , Lingsma Hester , Maas Andrew I. R. , Castaño-León Ana M. , Maegele Marc , Majdan Marek , Manara Alex , Manley Geoffrey , Martino Costanza , Maréchal Hugues , Mattern Julia , McMahon Catherine , Melegh Béla , Menon David , Menovsky Tomas , Mikolic Ana , Misset Benoit , Muraleedharan Visakh , Murray Lynnette , Negru Ancuta , Nelson David , Newcombe Virginia , Nieboer Daan , Nyirádi József , Olubukola Otesile , Oresic Matej , Ortolano Fabrizio , Palotie Aarno , Parizel Paul M. , Payen Jean-François , Perera Natascha , Perlbarg Vincent , Persona Paolo , Peul Wilco , Piippo-Karjalainen Anna , Pirinen Matti , Pisica Dana , Ples Horia , Polinder Suzanne , Pomposo Inigo , Posti Jussi P. , Puybasset Louis , Radoi Andreea , Ragauskas Arminas , Raj Rahul , Rambadagalla Malinka , Helmrich Isabel Retel , Rhodes Jonathan , Richardson Sylvia , Richter Sophie , Ripatti Samuli , Rocka Saulius , Roe Cecilie , Roise Olav , Rosand Jonathan , Rosenfeld Jeffrey V. , Rosenlund Christina , Rosenthal Guy , Rossaint Rolf , Rossi Sandra , Rueckert Daniel , Rusnák Martin , Sahuquillo Juan , Sakowitz Oliver , Sanchez-Porras Renan , Sandor Janos , Schäfer Nadine , Schmidt Silke , Schoechl Herbert , Schoonman Guus , Schou Rico Frederik , Schwendenwein Elisabeth , Sewalt Charlie , Singh Ranjit D. , Skandsen Toril , Smielewski Peter , Sorinola Abayomi , Stamatakis Emmanuel , Stanworth Simon , Stevens Robert , Stewart William , Steyerberg Ewout W. , Stocchetti Nino , Sundström Nina , Takala Riikka , Tamás Viktória , Tamosuitis Tomas , Taylor Mark Steven , Thibaut Aurore , Ao Braden Te , Tenovuo Olli , Theadom Alice , Thomas Matt , Tibboel Dick , Timmers Marjolein , Tolias Christos , Trapani Tony , Tudora Cristina Maria , Unterberg Andreas , Vajkoczy Peter , Vallance Shirley , Valeinis Egils , Vámos Zoltán , van der Jagt Mathieu , Van der Steen Gregory , van der Naalt Joukje , van Dijck Jeroen T. J. M. , van Erp Inge A. M. , van Essen Thomas A. , Van Hecke Wim , van Heugten Caroline , van Veen Ernest , Vyvere Thijs Vande , van Wijk Roel P. J. , Vargiolu Alessia , Vega Emmanuel , Velt Kimberley , Verheyden Jan , Vespa Paul M. , Vik Anne , Vilcinis Rimantas , Volovici Victor , von Steinbüchel Nicole , Voormolen Daphne , Vulekovic Petar , Wang Kevin K. W. , Whitehouse Daniel , Wiegers Eveline , Williams Guy , Winzeck Stefan , Wolf Stefan , Yang Zhihui , Ylén Peter , Younsi Alexander , Zeiler Frederick A. , Zelinkova Veronika , Ziverte Agate , Zoerle Tommaso 
Published: January 2025

AbstractPractices for controlling intracranial pressure (ICP) in traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) vary considerably between centres. To help understand the rational basis for such variance in care, this study aims to identify the patient-level predictors of changes in ICP management. We extracted all heterogeneous data (2008 pre-ICU and ICU variables) collected from a prospective cohort (n = 844, 51 ICUs) of ICP-monitored TBI patients in the Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in TBI study. We developed the TILTomorrow modelling strategy, which leverages recurrent neural networks to map a token-embedded time series representation of all variables (including missing values) to an ordinal, dynamic prediction of the following day’s five-category therapy intensity level (TIL(Basic)) score. With 20 repeats of fivefold cross-validation, we trained TILTomorrow on different variable sets and applied the TimeSHAP (temporal extension of SHapley Additive exPlanations) algorithm to estimate variable contributions towards predictions of next-day changes in TIL(Basic). Based on Somers’ Dxy, the full range of variables explained 68% (95% CI 65–72%) of the ordinal variation in next-day changes in TIL(Basic) on day one and up to 51% (95% CI 45–56%) thereafter, when changes in TIL(Basic) became less frequent. Up to 81% (95% CI 78–85%) of this explanation could be derived from non-treatment variables (i.e., markers of pathophysiology and injury severity), but the prior trajectory of ICU management significantly improved prediction of future de-escalations in ICP-targeted treatment. Whilst there was no significant difference in the predictive discriminability (i.e., area under receiver operating characteristic curve) between next-day escalations (0.80 [95% CI 0.77–0.84]) and de-escalations (0.79 [95% CI 0.76–0.82]) in TIL(Basic) after day two, we found specific predictor effects to be more robust with de-escalations. The most important predictors of day-to-day changes in ICP management included preceding treatments, age, space-occupying lesions, ICP, metabolic derangements, and neurological function. Serial protein biomarkers were also important and may serve a useful role in the clinical armamentarium for assessing therapeutic needs. Approximately half of the ordinal variation in day-to-day changes in TIL(Basic) after day two remained unexplained, underscoring the significant contribution of unmeasured factors or clinicians’ personal preferences in ICP treatment. At the same time, specific dynamic markers of pathophysiology associated strongly with changes in treatment intensity and, upon mechanistic investigation, may improve the timing and personalised targeting of future care.