Predictors of atrial fibrillation recurrence after surgical ablation of long-standing persistent AF with concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting
Authors: Kalybekova A , Lukinov V , Rakhmonov S , Chernyavskyi A 
Published: October 2021

Abstract

Background
A long-standing persistent form of atrial fibrillation (AF) in anamnesis, requiring surgical ablation together with coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG), significantly increases the risk of reccurence in the postoperative period. Before operation should consider the predictors of AF for long-term preservation of rhythm after surgery.

Purpose
To evaluate the predictors of AF recurrence on 3rd day and at discharge in patients after CABG with concomitant surgical ablation of long-standing persistent AF.

Methods
A prospective randomized single-center analysis was performed on patients with long-standing persistent AF, undergoing CABG with concomitant left atrial ablation (LAA) or biatrial ablation (BA) between 2016 and 2019. 116 patients were randomized into two groups: 58 in LAA+CABG, 58 in BA+CABG. The median age of the patients was 65 (IQR, 61 to 67.75) years in gr. BA and 62 (IQR, 58 to 66) in gr. LAA (Mann-Whitney U-test, p=0.050), 83% of men were in gr. BA (Fisher test, p&gt;0.999). Predictors of AF development on day 3 were identified using multivariable logistic regression from the following baseline characteristics: myocardial infarction in anamnesis, time of artificial circulation, time of application of radiofrequency energy, the size of the left and right atrium, funcrional class of cardiac angina and heart failure, gender, age, acute cerebrovascular accident (CVA), additional intervention on the heart (operations for aortic aneurysm, mitral, aortic and tricuspid valves replacement), concomitant cardiovascular, respiratory, digestive and urogenital diseases.

Results
Using a multivariate model of logistic regression, the following significant predictors of arrhythmias on the 3rd day in gr. BA were included: additional intervention on the heart valves (OR 63.13, p=0.001); an increase in the functional class (FC) of chronic heart failure (CHF) NYHA by 1 (OR 40.06, p=0.018); a history of CVA (OR 9.13, p=0.026).
The following significant predictors of AF reccurence on the 3rd day in gr.LAA were identified: an increase in the long axis of the right atrium by 1 cm (OR 3.05, p=0.006); an increase of the FC of cardiac angina by 1 (OR 7.11, p=0.011); in women (OR 7.14, p=0.017). In BA significant predictors of AF reccurence at discharge were: an increase in the long axis of the left atrium by 1 cm (OR4.86, p=0.015); reccurence of AF on the 3rd day (OR 17.45, p=0.005); 1 year increase in age (OR 1.24, p=0.023); the presence of diabetes (OR 47.67, p=0.002).
In gr. LAA the predictors at discharge were: reccurence of AF on 3rd day (OR 38.35, p=0.001); a history of CVA increases the chances of arrhythmia (OR 210.83, p=0.032).

Conclusion
Number of clinical and functional characteristics of a patient may be predictors of AF. We examined the predictors of reccurence of AF after surgical ablation of long-standing persistent AF with concomitant CABG. Taking them into account when choosing the optimal strategy of treatment is important.

Funding Acknowledgement
Type of funding sources: None.