bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Dorsolateral and dorsomedial prefrontal cortex track distinct properties of dynamic social behavior
Authors: McDonald Kelsey R , Pearson John M , Huettel Scott A 
Published: May 2020

Abstract
Understanding how humans make competitive decisions in complex environments is a key goal of decision neuroscience. Typical experimental paradigms constrain behavioral complexity (e.g. choices in discrete-play games), and thus, the underlying neural mechanisms of dynamic social interactions remain incompletely understood. Here, we collected fMRI data while humans played a competitive real-time video game against both human and computer opponents, and then, we used Bayesian non-parametric methods to link behavior to neural mechanisms. Two key cognitive processes characterized behavior in our task: (i) the coupling of one’s actions to another’s actions (i.e. opponent sensitivity) and (ii) the advantageous timing of a given strategic action. We found that the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex displayed selective activation when the subject’s actions were highly sensitive to the opponent’s actions, whereas activation in the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex increased proportionally to the advantageous timing of actions to defeat one’s opponent. Moreover, the temporoparietal junction tracked both of these behavioral quantities as well as opponent social identity, indicating a more general role in monitoring other social agents. These results suggest that brain regions that are frequently implicated in social cognition and value-based decision-making also contribute to the strategic tracking of the value of social actions in dynamic, multi-agent contexts.
The Social Construction of the Regulatory Burden: Methodological and Substantive Considerations
Authors: Kurtz Marcus , Schrank Andrew 
Published: May 2020

AbstractWhat drives the private sector’s attitude toward the public sector? We address the question by regressing survey data on the perceived burden of government regulation on objective data on the nature, cost, and administration of the regulation of entry in different political and economic contexts. The results suggest that businesspeople perceive democratic, regulatory, and left-of-center governments to be inefficient, net of objective conditions, and tax havens to be well-governed despite—or perhaps due to—their lack of transparency. Our findings contribute to both the sociology of knowledge and political sociology by demonstrating that indicators of public sector performance that are derived from surveys of businesspeople and used by donors and investors are not only biased against liberal democracies that try to regulate and/or tax the private sector but—insofar as they influence the flow of public and private resources—a threat to regulation and redistribution in the twenty-first century.
Modeling serological testing to inform relaxation of social distancing for COVID-19 control
Authors: Kraay Alicia N. M. , Nelson Kristin N. , Zhao Conan , Weitz Joshua S. , Lopman Benjamin A. 
Published: May 2020

AbstractBackgroundWhile social distancing efforts have been successful at slowing the spread of SARS-CoV- 2, these measures cannot be sustained indefinitely. In this paper, we examine how serological testing can reduce the risk of relaxing social distancing measures while also providing a way for test-positive individuals to return to more normal levels of activity.MethodsWe use an SEIR-like compartmental model that accounts for serological test status to examine if widespread serological testing can reduce the adverse effects of relaxing social distancing measures, in terms of total deaths and health system burden. In our model, social distancing measures are relaxed to a greater extent for those who test positive compared to those who have not been tested or test negative, allowing a return to work and partial restoration of other social contacts to pre-pandemic levels. All individuals preferentially interact with those who have tested positive, such that seropositive individuals act as immunological ‘shields.’ We consider a range of potential testing capacities and the implications of an imperfect test for this strategy.ResultsAlthough relaxing social distancing interventions increases total deaths, serologic testing as a part of this strategy can reduce population risk. If social distancing restrictions are relaxed by 50% in tandem with monthly serological testing of the general United States (US) population, 174,000 deaths would be averted and 67% of the US population would be released from social distancing after 1 year, as compared to a scenario without serological testing. Sustaining moderate levels of social distancing can help to flatten the epidemic curve, reducing health system burden below the US critical care capacity.ImplicationsModeling studies suggest that serological testing can be used to relax social distancing measures preferentially for seropositive individuals, insofar as antibodies can be established as a correlate of protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection. Implementing a strategy of serological testing and shielding can reduce population risk while offsetting the severe social and economic costs of a sustained shutdown.
Extensive testing may reduce COVID-19 mortality: a lesson from northern Italy
Authors: Bari Mauro Di , Balzi Daniela , Carreras Giulia , Onder Graziano 
Published: May 2020

AbstractWe examined data on the progression of COVID-19 epidemics in four regions in northern Italy. Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna, and Piedmont had an extremely steeper increase in mortality with increasing number of tests performed than Veneto, which applied a policy of broader swab testing. This suggests that the strategy adopted in Veneto, similar to that in South Korea, is effective in containing COVID-19 epidemics and should be applied in other regions of Italy and countries in Europe.On February 20, 2020, a first autochthonous case of COVID-19 respiratory disease was observed in Lombardy, Italy (1), soon followed by a second patient in Veneto, which borders Lombardy. Since then, the outbreak has rapidly expanded, mostly in regions in northern Italy (2).Initially, epidemiological surveillance and strategies for swab testing were under control of regional healthcare authorities. On February 25, the Italian Ministry of Health issued more stringent testing policies for application of swabs to identify COVID-19 cases, prioritizing patients with respiratory symptoms and possible COVID-19 contacts who required hospitalization. Most regions promptly complied with these recommendations, whereas Veneto maintained its policy, implemented after the occurrence of the first cases, of extensive testing and isolation of positive cases (3). Surprisingly, the debate stemming from these different regional policies valued international more than Italian evidences (4). We aimed at assessing, using data from the first month of the Italian experience, how different policies for swab testing may impact on the initial progression of COVID-19 epidemics.Data were obtained from the reports of the Italian Department of Civil Protection, issued since February 24, which include daily number of swabs performed and deaths from COVID-19 in each region (5). We compared Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna, and Piedmont, three regions in northern Italy that closely followed the recommendations for restrictive COVID-19 testing, and Veneto, which applied a policy of broader testing (3).Conflict of interestNone declared.Funding statementNo funding.
Full lockdown policies in Western Europe countries have no evident impacts on the COVID-19 epidemic
Authors: Meunier Thomas 
Published: May 2020

AbstractThis phenomenological study assesses the impacts of full lockdown strategies applied in Italy, France, Spain and United Kingdom, on the slowdown of the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak. Comparing the trajectory of the epidemic before and after the lockdown, we find no evidence of any discontinuity in the growth rate, doubling time, and reproduction number trends. Extrapolating pre-lockdown growth rate trends, we provide estimates of the death toll in the absence of any lockdown policies, and show that these strategies might not have saved any life in western Europe. We also show that neighboring countries applying less restrictive social distancing measures (as opposed to police-enforced home containment) experience a very similar time evolution of the epidemic.
Optimal Pool Size for COVID-19 Group Testing
Authors: Chen Jeffrey Y. , Chen Andrew S. C. 
Published: May 2020

AbstractThis paper presents an analytical formulation for determining optimal pool size in the initial pooling stage and the subsequent retests for COVID-19. A generalized constant compaction approach confirms the efficiency of “halving” targeted population between retest stages. An analytical gain formula is derived to aid future test designs. It is observed that optimal gain relies on the proper choice of the initial pool size. This optimal compaction scheme outperforms the conventional algorithms in most cases and may provide a mathematically-native road map for us to operate beyond the standard super-even-number-based (64, 32, 16, 8…, 1) group testing algorithms.
COVID-19 in healthcare workers in three hospitals in the South of the Netherlands, March 2020
Authors: Sikkema Reina S. , Pas Suzan , Nieuwenhuijse David F. , O’Toole Áine , Verweij Jaco , van der Linden Anne , Chestakova Irina , Schapendonk Claudia , Pronk Mark , Lexmond Pascal , Bestebroer Theo , Overmars Ronald J. , van Nieuwkoop Stefan , van den Bijllaardt Wouter , Bentvelsen Robbert G. , van Rijen Miranda M.L. , Buiting Anton G.M. , van Oudheusden Anne J.G. , Diederen Bram M. , Bergmans Anneke M.C. , van der Eijk Annemiek , Molenkamp Richard , Rambaut Andrew , Timen Aura , Kluytmans Jan A.J.W. , Oude Munnink Bas B. , Kluytmans van den Bergh Marjolein F.Q. , Koopmans Marion P.G. 
Published: May 2020

AbstractTen days after the first reported case of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the Netherlands, 3.9% of healthcare workers (HCWs) in nine hospitals located in the South of the Netherlands tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA. The extent of nosocomial transmission that contributed to the HCW infections was unknown.We combined epidemiological data, collected by means of structured interviews of HCWs, with whole genome sequencing (WGS) of SARS-CoV-2 in clinical samples from HCWs and patients in three of nine hospitals that participated in the HCW screening, to perform an in-depth analysis of sources and modes of transmission of SARS -CoV-2 in HCWs and patients.A total of 1,796 out of 12,022 HCWs (15%) of the three participating hospitals were screened, based on clinical symptoms, of whom 96 (5%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. We obtained complete genome sequences of 50 HCWs and 18 patients. Most sequences grouped in 3 clusters, with 2 clusters displaying local circulation within the region. The observed patterns are most consistent with multiple introductions into the hospitals through community acquired infections, and local amplification in the community.Although direct transmission in the hospitals cannot be ruled out, the data does not support widespread nosocomial transmission as source of infection in patients or healthcare workers.
Seroprevalence of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Kobe, Japan
Authors: Doi Asako , Iwata Kentaro , Kuroda Hirokazu , Hasuike Toshikazu , Nasu Seiko , Kanda Aya , Nagao Tomomi , Nishioka Hiroaki , Tomii Keisuke , Morimoto Takeshi , Kihara Yasuki 
Published: May 2020

AbstractBackgroundCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 has been affecting many people on earth and our society. Japan is known to have relatively less number of infections as well as deaths among developed nations. However, accurate prevalence of COVID-19 in Japan remains unknown. Therefore, we conducted a cross-sectional study to estimate seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection.MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional serologic testing for SARS-CoV-2 antibody using 1,000 samples from patients at outpatient settings who visited the clinic from March 31 to April 7, 2020, stratified by the decade of age and sex.ResultsThere were 33 positive IgG among 1,000 serum samples (3.3%, 95%CI: 2.3-4.6%). By applying this figure to the census of Kobe City (population: 1,518,870), it is estimated that the number of people with positive IgG be 50,123 (95%CI: 34,934-69,868). Age and sex adjusted prevalence of positivity was calculated 2.7% (95%CI: 1.8-3.9%), and the estimated number of people with positive IgG was 40,999 (95%CI: 27,333-59,221). These numbers were 396 to 858 fold more than confirmed cases with PCR testing in Kobe City.ConclusionsOur cross-sectional serological study suggests that the number of people with seropositive for SARS-CoV-2 infection in Kobe, Japan is far more than the confirmed cases by PCR testing.
Projection of hospitalization by COVID-19 in Brazil following different social distances policies
Authors: Matheus Henrique , da Silva Ferreira , Pereira Rafael Silva , de Abreu Raquel , Gritz Junqueira , Simões Adolfo , Porto Fabio 
Published: May 2020

ABSTRACTFollowing the first infections in the Wuhan City, COVID-19 became a global pandemic as declared by the World Health Organization (WHO). Since it is an airborne disease transmitted between humans, many countries adopted a quarantine on their own population as well as closing borders measures. In Brazil many are discussing the best way to manage the opening of the quarantine under the constraints of hospitals infrastructure. In this work we implement a forecast of the demand for hospital beds for the next 30 days for every state in Brazil for different quarantine flexibilization scenarios and analyse how long it would take for the demand to exceed current available hospital beds.
MODELLING OF COVID-19 OUTBREAK INDICATORS IN CHINA BETWEEN JANUARY AND APRIL
Authors: Çelik Senol , Ankarali Handan , Pasin Ozge 
Published: May 2020

AbstractBackgroundThe aim of this study is to explain the changes of outbreak indicators for coronavirus in China with nonlinear models and time series analysis. There are lots of methods for modelling. But we want to determine the best mathematical model and the best time series method among other models.MethodsThe data was obtained between January 22 and April 21, 2020 from China records. The number of total cases and the number of total deaths were used for the calculations. For modelling Weibull, Negative Exponential, Von Bertalanffy, Janoscheck, Lundqvist-Korf and Sloboda models were used and AR, MA, ARMA, Holt, Brown and Damped models were used for time series. The determination coefficient (R2), Pseudo R2 and mean square error were used for nonlinear modelling as criteria for determining the model that best describes the number of cases, the number of total deaths and BIC (Bayesian Information Criteria) was used for time series.ResultsAccording to our results, the Sloboda model among the growth curves and ARIMA (0,2,1) model among the times series models were most suitable models for modelling of the number of total cases. In addition Lundqvist-Korf model among the growth curves and Holt linear trend exponential smoothing model among the times series models were most suitable model for modelling of the number of total deaths. Our time series models forecast that the number of total cases will 83311 on 5 May and the number of total deaths will be 5273.ConclusionsBecause results of the modelling has providing information on measures to be taken and giving prior information for subsequent similar situations, it is of great importance modeling outbreak indicators for each country separately.
Impact of virus testing on COVID-19 case fatality rate: estimate using a fixed-effects model
Authors: Terriau Anthony , Albertini Julien , Poirier Arthur , Le Bastard Quentin 
Published: May 2020

ABSTRACTBackgroundIn response to the SARS-CoV2 pandemic, governments have adopted a variety of public health measures. There are variations in how much testing has been done across countries. South Korea, Germany, and Iceland take the bet of massive testing of their population. Whereas tests were not performed widely in southern European countries. As the former undergo a lower case-fatality rate due to the COVID-19 than the latter, the impact of the testing strategy must be investigated. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the impact of testing on the case fatality rate.MethodsWe use data on inpatients across French geographic areas and propose a novel methodology that exploits policy discontinuities at region borders to estimate the effect of COVID-19 tests on the case-fatality rate. In France, testing policies are determined locally. We compare all contiguous department pairs located on the opposite sides of a region border. The heterogeneity in testing rate between department pairs together with the similarities in other dimensions allow us to mimic the existence of treatment and control groups and to identify the impact of testing on mortality.ResultsThe increase of one percentage point in the test rate is associated with a decrease of 0.001 percentage point in the death rate. In other words, for each additional 1000 tests, one person would have remained alive.ConclusionMassive population testing could have a significant effect on mortality in different ways. Mass testing may help decision-makers to implement healthcare measures to limit the spread of the disease.
Prediction of Extubation Readiness Using Transthoracic Ultrasound in Preterm Infants
Authors: Soliman Reem M. , Elsayed Yasser , Said Reem N. , Abdulbaqi Abdulaziz M. , Hashem Rania H. , Aly Hany 
Published: May 2020

ABSTRACTObjectiveTo test the hypothesis that a lung ultrasound severity score (LUSsc) and assessment of left ventricular eccentricity index of the interventricular septum (LVEI) by focused heart ultrasound can predict extubation success in mechanically ventilated preterm infants with respiratory distress syndrome (RDS).DesignProspective observational study of premature infants <34 weeks’ of gestation age supported with mechanical ventilation due to RDS. LUSsc and LVEI were performed on postnatal days 3 and 7 by an investigator who was masked to infants’ ventilator parameters and clinical conditions. RDS was classified based on LUSsc into mild (score 0–9) and moderate-severe (score 10–18). A receiver operator curve was constructed to assess the ability to predict extubation success. Pearson’s correlation was performed between LVEI and pulmonary artery pressure (PAP).SettingLevel III neonatal intensive care unit, Cairo, Egypt.ResultsA total of 104 studies were performed to 66 infants; of them 39 had mild RDS (LUSsc 0–9) and 65 had moderate-severe RDS (score ≥10). LUSsc predicted extubation success with a sensitivity and a specificity of 91% and 69%; the positive and negative predictive values were 61% and 94%, respectively. Area under the curve (AUC) was 0.83 (CI: 0.75-0.91). LVEI did not differ between infants that succeeded and failed extubation. However, it correlated with pulmonary artery pressure during both systole (r=0.62) and diastole (r=0.53) and with hemodynamically significant patent ductus arteriosus (r=0.27 and r=0.46, respectively).ConclusionLUSsc predicts extubation success in preterm infants with RDS whereas LVEI correlates with high PAP.
Modeling and Short-Term Forecasts of Indicators for COVID-19 Outbreak in 25 Countries at the end of March
Authors: Ankaralı Handan , Erarslan Nadire , Pasin Özge 
Published: May 2020

ABSTRACTBackgroundThe coronavirus, which originated in Wuhan, causing the disease called COVID-19, spread more than 200 countries and continents end of the March. There is a lot of data since the virus started. However, these data will be explanatory when accurate analyzes are made and will allow future predictions to be made. In this study, it was aimed to model the outbreak with different time series models and also predict the indicators.MethodsThe data was collected from 25 countries which have different process at least 20 days. ARIMA(p,d,q), Simple Exponential Smoothing, Holt’s Two Parameter, Brown’s Double Exponential Smoothing Models were used. The prediction and forecasting values were obtained for the countries. Trends and seasonal effects were also evaluated.ResultsChina has almost under control according to forecasting. The cumulative death prevalence in Italy and Spain will be the highest, followed by the Netherlands, France, England, China, Denmark, Belgium, Brazil and Sweden respectively as of the first week of April. The highest daily case prevalence was observed in Belgium, America, Canada, Poland, Ireland, Netherlands, France and Israel between 10% and 12%.The lowest rate was observed in China and South Korea. Turkey was one of the leading countries in terms of ranking these criteria. The prevalence of the new case and the recovered were higher in Spain than Italy.ConclusionsMore accurate predictions for the future can be obtained using time series models with a wide range of data from different countries by modelling real time and retrospective data.
Mathematical Modeling of Listeriosis Incorporating Effects of Awareness Programs
Authors: Chukwu C. W. , Nyabadza F. 
Published: May 2020

AbstractAwareness programs by the media play a pivotal role in the control of infectious diseases. In this paper, we formulate and analyse a mathematical model for listeriosis incorporating aware individuals. Mathematical analyses of the model are done and equilibrium points determined. The model has three equilibria; namely; the disease-free, the bacteria-free, and the endemic equilibria. Local asymptotic stability of the equilibria is established based on the food contamination number ℛf. Numerical simulations are carried out and the effects of various parameters on the model state variables investigated. The results from numerical simulations reveal that an increase in the efficacy of awareness programs, the rate of implementation of awareness programs, and the rate at which unaware susceptible become aware result in the reduction of listeriosis in the human population. The results have important implications in the control and management of listeriosis.