bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Synergy in fertility forecasting: improving forecast accuracy through model averaging
Authors: Shang Han Lin , Booth Heather 
Published: September 2020

AbstractAccuracy in fertility forecasting has proved challenging and warrants renewed attention. One way to improve accuracy is to combine the strengths of a set of existing models through model averaging. The model-averaged forecast is derived using empirical model weights that optimise forecast accuracy at each forecast horizon based on historical data. We apply model averaging to fertility forecasting for the first time, using data for 17 countries and six models. Four model-averaging methods are compared: frequentist, Bayesian, model confidence set, and equal weights. We compute individual-model and model-averaged point and interval forecasts at horizons of one to 20 years. We demonstrate gains in average accuracy of 4–23% for point forecasts and 3–24% for interval forecasts, with greater gains from the frequentist and equal weights approaches at longer horizons. Data for England and Wales are used to illustrate model averaging in forecasting age-specific fertility to 2036. The advantages and further potential of model averaging for fertility forecasting are discussed. As the accuracy of model-averaged forecasts depends on the accuracy of the individual models, there is ongoing need to develop better models of fertility for use in forecasting and model averaging. We conclude that model averaging holds considerable promise for the improvement of fertility forecasting in a systematic way using existing models and warrants further investigation.
Effects of some entomopathogenic fungi on the aphid species, Aphis gossypii Glover (Hemiptera: Aphididae)
Authors: Bayındır Erol Alime , Abdelaziz Ouidad , Birgücü Ali Kemal , Senoussi Mohamed Morad , Oufroukh Ammar , Karaca İsmail 
Published: September 2020

Abstract
Background
Effects of the entomopathogenic fungi Beauveria bassiana, Verticillium alfalfae, and Trichoderma viride; secondary metabolites of MS1 (B. bassiana) and MS2 (V. alfalfae); and Dimethoate active substances on the aphid species, Aphis gossypii Glover (Hemiptera: Aphididae), were tested.

Main body of the abstract
Fungus isolates were prepared as 107 conidia ml−1 of spore suspensions and applied on the 2nd instar nymphs of A. gossypii. After the applications, evaluations were made on the 1st, 3rd, 5th, and 7th days by counting the live individuals. Obtained data were 100 and 93% mortality rate at MS1 (B. bassiana) and MS2 (V. alfalfae), and secondary metabolites were recorded in the 3rd day count results. On the 5th day counts, the highest mortality rates after secondary metabolites were statistically at the same group with B. bassiana, T. viride, and dimethoate. On the 7th day, counting results of all experiment groups were analyzed statistically and were found effective.

Short conclusion
Obtained results showed that the fungal secondary metabolites might be useful when utilized as a biocontrol agent against the aphids.
Psychiatric presentation of patients with acute SARS-CoV-2 infection: a retrospective review of 50 consecutive patients seen by a consultation-liaison psychiatry team
Authors: Iqbal Yousaf , Al Abdulla Majid Ali , Albrahim Sultan , Latoo Javed , Kumar Rajeev , Haddad Peter M. 
Published: September 2020

Background
Reports of psychiatric morbidity associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection tend to be limited by geography and patients’ clinical status. Representative samples are needed to inform service planning and research.

Aims
To describe the psychiatric morbidity associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection (confirmed by real-time polymerase chain reaction) in referrals to a consultation-liaison psychiatry service in Qatar.

Method
Retrospective review of 50 consecutive referrals.

Results
Most patients were male. Median age was 39.5 years. Thirty-one patients were symptomatic (upper respiratory tract symptoms or pneumonia) for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and 19 were asymptomatic (no characteristic physical symptoms of COVID-19 infection). Seventeen patients (34%) had a past psychiatric history including eight with bipolar I disorder or psychosis, all of whom relapsed. Thirty patients (60%) had physical comorbidity. The principal psychiatric diagnoses made by the consultation-liaison team were delirium (n = 13), psychosis (n = 9), acute stress reaction (n = 8), anxiety disorder (n = 8), depression (n = 8) and mania (n = 8). Delirium was confined to the COVID-19 symptomatic group (the exception being one asymptomatic patient with concurrent physical illness). The other psychiatric diagnoses spanned the symptomatic and asymptomatic patients with COVID. One patient with COVID-19 pneumonia experienced an ischaemic stroke. Approximately half the patients with mania and psychosis had no past psychiatric history. Three patients self-harmed. The commonest psychiatric symptoms were sleep disturbance (70%), anxiety (64%), agitation (50%), depressed mood (42%) and irritability (36%).

Conclusions
A wide range of psychiatric morbidity is associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection and is seen in symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. Cases of psychosis and mania represented relapses in people with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder and also new onset cases.
SOLUTION FOCUS BRIEF COUNSELING DALAM PERSPEKTIF AL-QUR’AN SEBAGAI MANIFESTASI PENDIDIKAN MASA KINI
Authors: Masril Masril , Afiat Yaumil 
Published: September 2020

The writers describes the concept of SFBC (Solution Focused Brief Counseling) throught Al-Qur'an perspective. This approach is grounded on the positive assumption that people are healty and competent. People have the ability to construct solutions that enhance their lives. This study uses literature studies, by collecting data and information about SFBC. The result of the studi explain that the concept of SFBC was supported by education carried out. The education will be construct the mindset of the people to make a changes in their lives. SFBC its essence lies in the counseling phase focused on solutions to solve their problem. If the people can believed their capability to solve their problem, so that will be posible. Allah will be give a problem to the people according by capability the people.Keywords: solution focus brief counseling, education, Al- Qur’an perspective
The Formation Conditions and Sources of Ore-Forming Fluids of the Nikolaevskoe Gold Deposit (South Urals)
Authors: Znamenskii S.E. , Ankusheva N.N. , Snachev A.V. 
Published: September 2020

Abstract
—We studied fluid inclusions, trace elements, and oxygen, carbon, and sulfur isotope ratios in minerals from stockwork sulfide–carbonate–quartz ores of the Nikolaevskoe gold deposit confined to volcanic island arc porphyry intrusions. The study shows that fluid inclusions in quartz were homogenized at 260–200 ºС and those in later formed calcite, at 227–205 ºС. The fluids contain aqueous K– Mg–Na chloride solutions with salinity of 4.1–9.6 wt.% NaCl eq. Raman spectroscopy revealed СO2 (29–34 mol.%), CH4 (40–55 mol.%), and N2 (8–30 mol.%) in the fluids. According to LA-ICP-MS data, quartz has low contents of Al (11.7–102 ppm) and Ti (0.05–0.64 ppm), which indicates its deposition from weakly acid low-alumina fluids at &lt;350 ºС. The REE patterns of calcite show accumulation of heavy lanthanides (LaN/YbN = 0.2–0.9), evident of high fluid alkalinity, and negative Ce (0.39–0.82) and positive Eu (1.99–5.25) anomalies. The negative Ce anomalies are due to meteoric water in the fluid and the fluid interaction with limestones. The positive Eu anomalies reflect the high-temperature (&gt;250 ºC) environment that existed before the calcite crystallization. The Y/Ho ratio in calcite (28.7–54.1) suggests that the fluid has magmatic components and components extracted from limestones and contains seawater. The δ18OH2O values (3.6–5.6‰) of the fluid testify to the participation of magmatic and meteoric waters in the ore formation. The δ13CCO2 values (–4.1 to 1.4‰) point to carbon of magmatic nature and carbon extracted from limestones. The heavy sulfur isotope composition of pyrite (6.75 to 9.87‰) and arsenopyrite (8.7‰) might be due to sulfur supply from the host rocks or to the participation of [SO4]2- of seawater in the ore-forming process. According to the results obtained, the Nikolaevskoe gold deposit is an island arc (Au ± Cu)–quartz–sulfide deposit transitional between porphyry and epithermal types.
Is Piecemeal Endoscopic Resection Acceptable for Early Colorectal Cancers in Certain Situations? A Single-Center French Study
Authors: Ratone Jean-Philippe , Caillol Fabrice , Zemmour Christophe , Bories Erwan , Pesenti Christian , Godat Sébastien , Hoibian Solene , De Chaisemartin Cécile , Meillat Hélène , Lelong Bernard , Poizat Flora , Giovannini Marc 
Published: September 2020

Background and Aims: The use of endoscopic treatment for early colorectal cancer (ECC) is increasing. The European guidelines suggest performing piecemeal endoscopic resection (pmR) for benign lesions and en bloc resection for ECC, especially for patients with favorable lymph node involvement risk evaluations. However, en bloc resections for lesions larger than two centimeters require invasive endoscopic techniques. Our retrospective single-center study aimed to determine the clinical impact of performing pmR for ECC rather than traditional en bloc resection.
Methods: A single-center study was performed between January 2012 and September 2017. All ECC patients were included. The main objective was to evaluate the number of patients who potentially underwent unnecessary surgery due to piecemeal resection. The secondary endpoints were as follows: disease-free survival (DFS), defined as the time from pmR to endoscopic failure (local recurrence not treatable by endoscopy), complication rate, number of patients who did not undergo surgery by default, and factors predictive of outcomes and complications.
Results: One hundred and forty-six ECC endoscopically treated patients were included. In total, 85 patients were excluded (71 who underwent en bloc resection, 14 with pending follow-up). Data from 61 patients (33 women and 28 men) were analyzed. Two patients underwent potentially unnecessary surgery [3.28% (0.9%- 11.2%)]. The DFS rate was 87% (75%-93%) at 6 months and 85% [72%-92%] at 12 months. The median follow- up time was 16.5 months (12.4-20.9). Three patients (4.9%) had complications. One patient did not undergo surgery by default. A Paris classification of 0-2c (HR=9.3 (2.4-35.9), p<0.001) and Vienna classification of 5 [HR=16.3 (3.3-80.4), p<0.001] were factors associated with poor DFS.
Conclusion: Performing pmR in place of en bloc resection for ECC had a limited impact on patients. If the pathology (especially deep margins) is analyzable, careful monitoring could be acceptable in ECC patients who undergo pmR.
Confocal Laser Endomicroscopy vs Biopsies in the Assessment of Persistent or Recurrent Intestinal Metaplasia/Neoplasia after Endoscopic Treatment of Barrett’s Esophagus related Neoplasia
Authors: Krajciova Jana , Kollar Marek , Maluskova Jana , Janicko Martin , Vackova Zuzana , Spicak Julius , Martinek Jan 
Published: September 2020

Background and Aims: Patients after endoscopic treatment of Barrett‘s esophagus (BE) related neoplasia (BORN) should enter endoscopic surveillance with biopsies to detect persistent or recurrent neoplasia or intestinal metaplasia (IM). Probe-based confocal laser endomicroscopy (pCLE) serves as a virtual biopsy and could replace standard biopsies. However, the role of pCLE in patients after endoscopic treatment of BORN has not been systematically assessed. The aim of this study was to compare pCLE with biopsies in detecting persistent/recurrent IM/neoplasia.
Methods: A single center, prospective and pathologist-blinded study was performed. Patients after endoscopic treatment of BORN (endoscopic resection or dissection, radiofrequency ablation) underwent surveillance endoscopy with pCLE followed by biopsies.
Results: A total of 56 patients were enrolled: initial diagnoses were low-grade dysplasia (LGD) in 24 patients (43%), high-grade dysplasia (HGD) in 12 patients (21%) and early adenocarcinoma (EAC) in 20 patients (36%). Only one patient (2%) experienced recurrent neoplasia (LGD), which was diagnosed by pCLE only. Twenty patients (35.7%) experienced persistent/recurrent IM, diagnosed by both pCLE and biopsies in 17 patients (17/30, 85%) and by pCLE only in 3 pts (3/30, 15%). Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values to diagnose recurrent/persistent IM did not differ significantly between pCLE and biopsies; diagnostic accuracy was 100% (95%CI 93.6-100) for pCLE and 94.6 (95%CI 85.1-98.9%) for biopsies, p=0.25. In patients with IM detected by both tested methods, pCLE detected significantly more goblet cells (median 43 per patient) than biopsies (median 12 per patient), p=0.01.
Conclusion: pCLE is at least as effective as standard biopsies in the detection of persistent/recurrent IM after endoscopic treatment of BORN.
EFEKTIVITAS MODEL PEMBELAJARAN JIGSAW PADA KETERAMPILAN MENULIS BAHASA PERANCIS
Authors: Hardini Tri Indri , Karimah Iim Siti , Erliani Adelya 
Published: September 2020

This research aims to describe student’s writing ability before and after using Jigsaw model, the effectiveness of Jigsaw model in improving writing skills, and the opinion of students. This study applies descriptive quantitative method in form of pre-experimental design. Instruments that are used in the form of tests and questionnaires. The sample of this research is 32 characteristics writing skill of 6th semester French Education students. Based on the research result, the researcher can conclude that the students have been able to write the argumentative text nicely. The test result showed that the average test score after using the Jigsaw model is 8.9. It means, the average posttest score is higher than the average pretest score, up to 1.7%. Meanwhile, the results of the questionnaire show that students like writing but they find so much difficulty in making a writing or a text, and most students give a positive impression for the Jigsaw model.
Effectiveness of the preventive use of folic acid and complex with active folates in women with MTHFR C677T genetic polymorphism and with history of embryonic loss
Authors: О. Б. Ластовецька  , О. В. Булавенко  , Д. Г. Коньков  , В. В. Буран  
Published: September 2020

Objective: to evaluate the clinical efficacy and safety of Femibion Natalcare vitamin complex containing metafolin in women of late reproductive age with MTHFR C677T genetic polymorphism who had anamnestic embryonic losses.Materials and methods. Study included 100 women of late reproductive age with MTHFR C677T genetic polymorphism and anamnestic embryonic losses. Patients of main group were divided in subgroups: first – 45 women who received folic acid (400 mcgper day) and second – 55 patients who received vitamin complex Femibion Natalcare 1 tablet daily. Prescription of medications began before preconception (6–8 weeks), intake ended at 28 weeks of gestation. Control group included 40 healthy women with physiological pregnancy. The studied parameters reflected information about the features of the pregnancy and birth.Results. After a course of prophylactic supplementation with Femibion Natalcare compared with monotherapy of folic acid, it was possible to reliably reduce cases of early pregnancy loss (p =0.03), anemia in I trimester (p =0.009), preeclampsia (p =0.014), anemia in II and III trimesters (p =0.001), placental dysfunction (p =0.0005), decrease in the level of placental hormones (p =0.014), pathology of placental development and localization (p =0.0499), fetal growth retardation (p =0, 0499), premature maturation of placenta (p =0.02), induction of labor (p =0.015), disorders of neonatal adaptation (p =0.03), neonatal jaundice (p =0.018), postpartum anemia (p =0.015). There were no cases of side effects of drugs on the mother and child.Conclusions. The use of a vitamin complex containing active folate metapholine for women of late reproductive age with MTHFR C677T genetic polymorphism and anamnestic embryonic losses had a positive effect on clinical symptoms, helps to reduce cases of perinatal pathology and impaired early neonatal adaptation.
INVESTIGATING THE ROLE OF ISSUING CORPORATE ISLAMIC BOND AND SELECTED DETERMINANTS ON FIRM'S PROFITABILITY
Authors: Najmudin  , Widiastuti Ekaningtyas , Taufiqurrahman Ghifari 
Published: September 2020

Purpose of the study: The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of corporate Islamic bond issuance, internal and macroeconomic factors on firm's profitability. The internal factors involved potentially as determinants of profitability are leverage and firm size. Meanwhile, the macroeconomic factors are economic growth and the inflation rate.
Methodology: The sample is taken from companies listed at Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) and selected from 24 companies. The sample is 21 companies whose data completely and issued the Islamic bond during the period 2012 until 2018. Moreover, the panel data regression was employed as an analytical tool to test the data.
Main Findings: The results suggest that Islamic bond issuance and financial leverage have a negative influence on profitability, firm size has no significant influence on profitability, and economic growth and inflation rate have a positive influence on profitability.
Applications of this study: A firm, as well as an investor, must consider the lower Islamic bond issuance and debt proportion. Besides, they should anticipate decreased economic growth and the inflation rate.
Novelty/Originality of this study: This study observes evidence from Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) that develops the previous studies and adds references for further studies about Islamic bond issuance. Also, it combines Islamic fund source and firm-specific internal as well as macroeconomic factors (economic growth and inflation rate) macroeconomics factors insert what are the macroeconomic factor which affects the profitability of the business to give a clear picture of how the effect of all factors on profitability.
IMPACT OF SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT PRACTICES ON SUPPLY CHAIN PERFORMANCE IN IRANIAN OIL AND GAS COMPANIES
Authors: E-Vahdati Sahar , Akbari Mohsen , Habibi Khosro 
Published: September 2020

Purpose of the study: This study aims to examine the influence of supply chain management practices on the performance of the supply chain in oil and gas companies in Iran.
Methodology: This is quantitative survey-based research and sampling is a simple random in which data are collected through a standard questionnaire. The questionnaires are distributed among 170 respondents in west oil and gas companies in Iran. The sample consists of 78% male and 22% female, who are mostly from the age range of 35-45. For hypotheses testing, descriptive statistics and structural modeling systems are used through SPSS and AMOS software to investigate the relationships between variables.
Main Findings: The finding reveals that all supply chain management practices, namely supply chain unity, information sharing, and partner relationship management, have a significant positive impact on supply chain performance.
Applications of this study: The findings of the study can be implemented in the oil and gas industry to enhance supply chain performance. Besides, chain managers will understand the effects of implementing effective and high-quality supply chain unity, information sharing, and partner relationship management in performing of the supply chain in their companies.
Novelty/Originality of this study: This study contributes to the literature by utilizing the social exchange theory in the relationship between supply chain management practices and supply chain performance in oil and gas companies.
FACTORS AFFECTING THE WILLING TO JOIN IN COFFEE CROP INSURANCE IN DAK LAK PROVINCE, VIETNAM: A NOVEL APPLICATION OF BAYESIAN MODEL AVERAGING APPROACH
Authors: Dinh Thang Le , Van Si Nguyen 
Published: September 2020

Purpose of the study: this paper aims to determine factors affecting the willingness to join crop insurance. Besides, this paper is the purpose of developing a coffee tree insurance program.
Methodology: The authors used a systematic random sampling technique. The authors used the Bayesian Model Average (BMA) that calculated the probability of all independent variables affecting the dependent variable with significance level 0.05. Besides, the data based on 480 coffee farmers in Dak Lak province, Vietnam.
Main Findings: Authors calculated the probability of all independent variables affecting the dependent variable with significance level 0.05. Independent variables, including loans, drought risks, educational level, experiences, and productivity.
Applications of this study: This result is a vital science document for insurance companies and managers to apply and suggest recommendations for developing coffee tree insurance in the future.
Novelty/Originality of this study: Vietnam is an agricultural country, 60-70% of the population lives in rural areas, and agricultural insurance should have a considerable market. Farmers’ agrarian insurance cultivated the coffee trees that are currently underdeveloped and challenging.
Boyun ve mediasten tutulumlu hodgkin lenfoma olgularında Butterfly VMAT tekniği avantajlı mıdır?
Authors: ATASEVER AKKAŞ Ebru , GÜVENÇ Olgu 
Published: September 2020

Amaç: Bu çalışmada, erken evre Hodgkin lenfoma (HL) tanılı bilateral boyun ve mediasten yerleşimli genç kadın ve erkek olgularda, üç boyutlu konformal radyoterapi (3DCRT) ile volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) ve butterfly VMAT tekniklerinin dozimetrik olarak karşılaştırılması amaçlanmıştır.
Gereç ve Yöntemler: Erken evre HL'lı 20 hastaya radyoterapi uygulandı. Tüm plan verileri, hedef hacim ve kritik organ doz hacim histogramları karşılaştırıldı. Her üç teknik için konformite indeksi, homojenite indeksi ve % V107 farklılıkları değerlendirildi.
Bulgular: Sağ meme maksimum, V25, V30 ve sol meme maksimum, V20, 25, 30 değerleri ise 3DCRT planlamada diğer VMAT planlarında elde edilen değerlerden daha yüksek idi. Bu da istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bulundu. Akciğer V5 değerleri 3DCRT planlamasında, VMAT planlarından daha düşüktü ve V20, 25,30 değerleri ise VMAT planlarından istatistiksel olarak daha yüksekti. Sağ ve sol parotis ortalamaları, V5,20 25, 30 değerleri butterfly VMAT planlamasında diğer planlara göre anlamlı olarak daha düşüktü. Sağ parotis V20, V25 değerinin butterfly VMAT planlamasında, ikili karşılaştırmalarda VMAT planından daha düşük olduğu bulunmuştur.
Sonuçlar: Memede 20 Gy ve üzerinde VMAT, butterfly VMAT, 20 Gy ve altında ise 3DCRT tekniğinin daha avantajlı olduğu görülmektedir. Parotis dozları açısından ise butterfly VMAT’ın daha avantajlı olduğu görülmektedir.