Late Quaternary habitat suitability models for chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) since the Last Interglacial (120,000 BP)
Authors: Barratt Christopher D. , Lester Jack D. , Gratton Paolo , Onstein Renske E. , Kalan Ammie K. , McCarthy Maureen S. , Bocksberger Gaëlle , White Lauren C. , Vigilant Linda , Dieguez Paula , Abdulai Barrie , Aebischer Thierry , Agbor Anthony , Assumang Alfred Kwabena , Bailey Emma , Bessone Mattia , Buys Bartelijntje , Carvalho Joana Silva , Chancellor Rebecca , Cohen Heather , Danquah Emmanuel , Deschner Tobias , Dongmo Zacharie Nzooh , Doumbé Osiris A. , Dupain Jef , Duvall Chris S. , Eno-Nku Manasseh , Etoga Gilles , Galat-Luong Anh , Garriga Rosa , Gatti Sylvain , Ghiurghi Andrea , Goedmakers Annemarie , Granjon Anne-Céline , Hakizimana Dismas , Haydar Nadia , Head Josephine , Hedwig Daniela , Herbinger Ilka , Hermans Veerle , Jones Sorrel , Junker Jessica , Kadam Parag , Kambi Mohamed , Kienast Ivonne , Kouakou Célestin Yao , N’Goran Kouamé Paul , Langergraber Kevin E. , Lapuente Juan , Laudisoit Anne , Lee Kevin C. , Maisels Fiona , Moore Deborah , Morgan Bethan , Morgan David , Neil Emily , Nicholl Sonia , Nkembi Louis , Ntongho Anne , Orbell Christopher , Ormsby Lucy Jayne , Pacheco Liliana , Piel Alex K. , Pintea Lilian , Plumptre Andrew J. , Rundus Aaron , Sanz Crickette , Sommer Volker , Sop Tenekwetche , Stewart Fiona A. , Sunderland-Groves Jacqueline , Tagg Nikki , Todd Angelique , Ton Els , Schijndel Joost van , VanLeeuwe Hilde , Vendras Elleni , Welsh Adam , Wenceslau José Francisco Carminatti , Wessling Erin G. , Willie Jacob , Wittig Roman M. , Yoshihiro Nakashima , Yuh Yisa Ginath , Yurkiw Kyle , Boesch Christophe , Arandjelovic Mimi , Kühl Hjalmar 
Published: May 2020

AbstractAimPaleoclimate reconstructions have enhanced our understanding of how past climates may have shaped present-day biodiversity. We hypothesize that habitat stability in historical Afrotropical refugia played a major role in the habitat suitability and persistence of chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) during the late Quaternary. We aimed to build a dynamic model of changing habitat suitability for chimpanzees at fine spatio-temporal scales to provide a new resource for understanding their ecology, behaviour and evolution.LocationAfrotropics.TaxonChimpanzee (Pan troglodytes), including all four subspecies (P. t. verus, P. t. ellioti, P. t. troglodytes, P. t. schweinfurthii).MethodsWe used downscaled bioclimatic variables representing monthly temperature and precipitation estimates, historical human population density data and an extensive database of georeferenced presence points to infer chimpanzee habitat suitability at 62 paleoclimatic time periods across the Afrotropics based on ensemble species distribution models. We mapped habitat stability over time using an approach that accounts for dispersal between time periods, and compared our modelled stability estimates to existing knowledge of Afrotropical refugia. Our models cover a spatial resolution of 0.0467 degrees (approximately 5.19 km2grid cells) and a temporal resolution of every 1,000–4,000 years dating back to the Last Interglacial (120,000 BP).ResultsOur results show high habitat stability concordant with known historical forest refugia across Africa, but suggest that their extents are underestimated for chimpanzees. We provide the first fine-grained dynamic map of historical chimpanzee habitat suitability since the Last Interglacial which is suspected to have influenced a number of ecological-evolutionary processes, such as the emergence of complex patterns of behavioural and genetic diversity.Main ConclusionsWe provide a novel resource that can be used to reveal spatio-temporally explicit insights into the role of refugia in determining chimpanzee behavioural, ecological and genetic diversity. This methodology can be applied to other taxonomic groups and geographic areas where sufficient data are available.