1386. Current Estimates of the Impact of Routine Childhood Immunizations in Reducing Vaccine-Preventable Diseases in the United States
Authors: La Elizabeth M , Carrico Justin , Talbird Sandra E , Chen Ya-Ting , Nyaku Mawuli K , Carias Cristina , Marshall Gary S , Roberts Craig S 
Published: January 2021

Abstract

Background
Routine immunizations for children aged 10 years and younger in the United States (US) currently cover 14 diseases. Updated estimates of public health impact are needed, given changes in disease epidemiology, evolving recommendations, and the dynamic nature of compliance with the immunization schedule.

Methods
Pre-vaccine disease incidence was estimated before each routine vaccine was recommended, with average values across multiple years obtained directly from published literature or calculated based on disease surveillance data or annual case estimates from the published literature. Pre-vaccine incidence then was compared to current, post-vaccine incidence, which was generally calculated as average values over the most recent 5 years of available incidence data. Overall incidence estimates and estimates by age group were calculated. Differences in pre- and post-vaccine disease incidence rates were used to calculate the annual number of cases averted, based on 2019 US population estimates. This analysis did not separately estimate the proportion of disease incidence reduction that may be attributed to adult vaccines or booster doses.

Results
Post-vaccine disease incidence decreased overall and for all age groups across all diseases evaluated (Table 1). Decreases ranged from 17.4% for influenza to 100.0% for polio (Figure 1). Over 90% reduction in incidence was achieved for 10 of the 14 diseases evaluated (including reduction in incidence of rotavirus hospitalizations). Overall post-vaccine disease incidence estimates were highest for influenza, rotavirus, and varicella. Estimated annual cases averted by vaccination in 2019 ranged from 1,269 for tetanus to more than 4.2 million for varicella.
Table 1. Pre- and Post-Vaccine Disease Incidence Estimates, Annual Cases, and 2019 Cases Averted, by Disease

Figure 1. Percentage Reduction in Disease Incidence Post-Vaccine, by Disease

Conclusion
Routine childhood immunization in the US continues to result in high, sustained reduction in disease across all vaccines and for all age groups evaluated.

Disclosures
Elizabeth M. La, PhD, RTI Health Solutions (Employee) Justin Carrico, BS, GlaxoSmithKline (Consultant) Sandra E. Talbird, MSPH, RTI Health Solutions (Employee) Ya-Ting Chen, PhD, Merck & Co., Inc. (Employee, Shareholder) Mawuli K. Nyaku, DrPh, Merck & Co. Inc. (Employee, Shareholder) Cristina Carias, PhD, Merck (Employee, Shareholder) Gary S. Marshall, MD, GlaxoSmithKline (Consultant, Scientific Research Study Investigator)Merck (Consultant, Scientific Research Study Investigator)Pfizer (Consultant, Scientific Research Study Investigator)Sanofi Pasteur (Consultant, Grant/Research Support, Scientific Research Study Investigator, Honorarium for conference lecture)Seqirus (Consultant, Scientific Research Study Investigator) Craig S. Roberts, PharmD, MPA, MBA, Merck & Co., Inc (Employee, Shareholder)