МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ ПРЕДЛОЖЕНИЯ ТРУДА ИНДИВИДА НА МИКРОДАННЫХ
Authors: Ларионова Н.И. , Варламова Ю.А. 
Published: February 2025

В статье представлен анализ детерминант предложения труда. Выделены внешние и внутренние факторы, влияющие на предложение труда индивидов. В работе использованы методы картографирования, группировки, статистического анализа и эконометрического моделирования. Результаты проведённого анализа позволили выявить ключевые факторы, оказывающие влияние на вероятность быть экономически активным. К ним отнесены социально-демографические и экономические характеристики населения. Полученные выводы могут быть полезны при разработке политики в области налогообложения трудовых доходов, поддержки незащищённых слоёв населения, выявления особенностей предложения труда студенческой молодёжи и предпенсионеров.
Introduction. The factors affecting labor supply can be divided into two main categories: internal factors, such as the features of households or individuals, and external ones. The average birth rate in Russia does not provide the full picture, since the regions are characterized by great differentiation. To take the latter into account, the absolute increase was calculated and the quartile grouping of regions was carried out. It should be noted that for all regions, a negative dynamic of absolute increases in birth rates persists. The aim of the work is to systematize internal factors influencing individual labor supply, and, with the factors taken into consideration, provide a microlevel assessment of the probability of an individual's economic activity. Methods.To study the influence of individuals’ sociodemographic characteristics on labor supply, the authors used pooled data of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey - Higher School of Economics (RLMS-HSE) for the 1994-2020 time period. Modeling was performed for the following demographics: (1) working-age able-bodied people; (2) student youth; (3) pre-retirees. Results.The results of the regression modeling revealed labor supply determinants for the selected population groups. Individual labor supply exhibits gender differences. A statistically significant negative effect on women's labor supply was found. The impact of secondary and vocational education differs significantly from that of primary education and has a positive effect on individuals’ economic activities. Family relations and children under 18 serve as constraining factors for individual labor supply. Regarding economic individual characteristics, a positive correlation was confirmed between individual labor supply and people’s incomes, as well as peculiarities of labor supply in specific fields of activity. The empirical outcomes show that the key external factor determining labor supply in Russia is the birth rate, which is declining both nationally and in all individual regions of the country. A negative trend in this process is the growing inequality among the regions, as well as the clustering of territories with low birth rates. The modeling results revealed the determinants of the probability of being economically active, which include settlement type, gender, age, income, education, occupation, presence of children, and marital status. Conclusion. The findings of the study are scientifically relevant for understanding labor supply decisions in Russia and formulating the policy in this area. Firstly, more attention should be given to disadvantaged groups. Secondly, if the gap between the opportunities of different social groups in the labor market continues to grow over the long term, it will impede sustainable economic development. Therefore, there is a need to regulate the labor market and protect the labor rights of vulnerable populations.