bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Adverse birth outcomes and the risk of dental caries at age 3 years
Authors: Soares Fernanda Cunha , Dahllöf Göran , Hjern Anders , Julihn Annika 
Published: January 2020

AbstractBackgroundSince birth outcome is associated with maternal and newborn health, it can be a predictor of the future health of the child.AimTo investigate the association between adverse birth outcomes and dental caries.DesignThe present registry‐based cohort study included all children born in 2000‐2003, residing in Stockholm County, Sweden and who received a dental examination at the age of 3 years (n = 74 748). National registries supplied data on socioeconomic conditions, maternal health, maternal health behavior, and birth outcomes. Forward stepwise binary logistic regression was performed to determine predictors of caries experience in the 3‐year‐olds.ResultsOf the subjects, 6.0% had caries experience (decayed, extracted, and filled teeth [deft] ≥ 1), 5.6% were born preterm (<37 weeks); 2.2% were born small (SGA) and 3.7% large (LGA) for gestational age. Of the studied adverse birth outcomes, only SGA was significantly associated with caries experience at 3 years of age, and only for mothers who had refrained from smoking during pregnancy.ConclusionsSGA is associated with caries experience in 3‐year‐old children; however, this relationship occurs only in mothers who did not smoke during pregnancy.
Carryover effects of baloxavir acid in human nasopharyngeal/pharyngeal swabs on infectious titer testing of influenza virus
Authors: Baba Keiko , Oka Ryoko , Shano Shinya , Omoto Shinya , Noshi Takeshi , Shishido Takao , Naito Akira , Kawaguchi Keiko , Ishibashi Toru , Uehara Takeki 
Published: January 2020

AbstractBaloxavir marboxil (BXM) demonstrated a rapid and profound decline in infectious viral titer 1 day after BXM administration. Rapid reduction in virus titer is a characteristic of BXM. There may be a possibility that drug carryover effects have impacts on the observed antiviral effects due to the poor correlation that was observed between viral titer reduction and alleviation of influenza symptoms. Here, we report possible carryover effects of baloxavir acid (BXA), an active form of BXM, on infectious titer testing. Our findings indicate that there is little impact of BXA carryover on the infectious titer testing.
Agricultural Policy in Tropical Africa: is a Turnaround Possible?
Authors: Due Jean M. 
Published: January 2020

AbstractThe food crisis in Africa has entered our living rooms through television and the press. Why is per capita agricultural production lower now than at independence in the early 1960s? This article examines the factors responsible and outlines some solutions. Both external and internal factors have converged to create the crisis ‐ low prices to farmers to placate vocal urban consumers, inefficient, high‐cost marketing boards, governments' neglect of agriculture in favor of industry, over‐valued exchange rates, lack of foreign exchange and increasing debt burdens. Externally the depressed world market decreased demand for Africa's exports and contributed to the stagnation of the economics. Drought, a population growth rate approaching 3%/year and a shortage of human capital added to the crisis.
Changing Agricultural Comparative Advantage
Authors: Abbott Philip C. , Thompson Robert L. 
Published: January 2020

AbstractSpecial circumstances in the agricultural sector have limited the use of comparative advantage in addressing the planner's dilemma of allocating investment between industry and agriculture and in examining the doctrine of food self‐sufficiency. A three‐factor model of agricultural trade, extending earlier models, is used to address some of these special circumstances and to formulate a theory of agricultural comparative advantage under changing economic conditions. Emphasis is placed on the short‐run fixity of sector‐specific capital stocks, the role of qualitative differences in land (natural resource) endowments, and on non‐homothetic preferences. In addition to insights on agricultural comparative advantage, implications for project evaluation are considered.
Short‐run dynamics of feed ingredient prices facing the EC: a causal analysis
Authors: Dronne Yves , Tavéra Christophe 
Published: January 2020

ABSTRACTThis paper attempts to (1) shed some light on the EC – US controversy concerning the effect of the EC oilseeds market regime on EC imports of US soybean products, essentially soy meal, and (2) provide information on another EC – US controversy: Does corn‐gluten feed behave as a substitute for (EC view) or a complement to (US view) feed grains, and do EC corn‐gluten feed imports displace EC grain production or not?By using a constrained vectorial autoregressive model of Rotterdam prices for soy meal, sunflower meal, rape meal, corn‐gluten feed and cassava, we show that (1) the decrease in EC imports of US soymeal are mot mainly caused by the EC milling subsidies, and (2) corn‐gluten feed is both a substitute for soymeal due to its protein content and a substitute for cassava (and grains) due to its energy content: US and EC views are only partial views.
Predictive performance of the World Bank's commodity price projections
Authors: Warr Peter G. 
Published: January 2020

ABSTRACTThe World Bank's commodity price projections are widely used for various planning purposes. Two aspects of the Bank's projections of relative prices are studied in this paper. The first is whether the forecasts make efficient use of the information available at the time the forecast is made. The second is whether the forecasts predict future prices with greater accuracy than alternative forecasting methods. These matters are studied by comparing the World Bank's past price projections with the actual prices that were subsequently observed. The results show that, overall, the World Bank forecasts do not pass either test. First, the World Bank forecasts are informationally inefficient. Prediction error (projection minus actual price) tends to be positively correlated with the projections themselves. Although the direction of future price movements tends to be correctly predicted, the magnitude of these movements tends to be overpredicted. Second, the World Bank forecasts do not perform well even compared with the simplest of alternative forecasting methods ‐ the prediction of no change.
Effects of pricing policy on seasonal storage of wheat in Pakistan
Authors: Pinckney Thomas C. 
Published: January 2020

ABSTRACTMost studies of stockholding in less developed countries have concentrated on public, interannual stocks. A recent change in Pakistan government policy for the pricing of wheat highlights the need to examine seasonal storage issues, considering explicitly the effects of policy on the behavior of private agents who hold seasonal stocks of grain. Using H. Working's supply of storage theory and a simple monthly model, implications of the policy change for fiscal cost, private storage, and government procurement are explored. Costs of the policy could be reduced dramatically by increasing marginally the gap between the procurement and release price. Expected cost to the consumer of a wider gap would be no larger than under the previous policy.
The Alberta hog industry problem of the 1960s: its definition and resolution
Authors: Hawkins M.H. , Lerohl M.L. 
Published: January 2020

ABSTRACTThe hog industry in Western Canada in 1960s was in a state of turmoil associated with a vague, poorly understood production and marketing problem. Hog production was largely a supplementary farm activity producing an overfat product increasingly shunned by consumers. The structure, and also probably the existence, of the industry was in question. During the following 20 years, the industry changed fundamentally as various groups achieved a better definition and understanding of the problem. A reshaping of the industry was carried out by farmers, the Provincial Government, and a variety of agricultural professionals concerned with industry structure, emerging pork markets, physical characteristics of the product, and creation of a policy environment that provided incentives for output and productivity growth. The outcome has been the development of a viable pork industry in the Province (in spite of some past and continuing hindrances to industry growth) that has substantially solved the problem.
Dynamic factor demand equations in U.S. and Canadian agriculture
Authors: Friesen J. , Capalbo S. , Denny M. 
Published: January 2020

AbstractThis research provides one of the first empirical estimates of a data‐based dynamic factor demand model for American and Canadian agriculture. Models such as these deserve more widespread use in the empirical analysis of agriculture. These models have the advantage that they do not impose inappropriate dynamics on the data. Rather they permit the data to select the appropriate dynamics.We use a model originally developed by Anderson and Blundell. This model is a general first‐order dynamic model which contains as testable hypothesis several simpler models. This model permits us to estimate the long‐run agricultural production structure as a subset of the dynamic parameter estimates. We will test this long‐run structure for symmetry, homotheticity and neutral technical change.The estimated models may be used to test for three alternative dynamic structures. In the limit, dynamics may not be needed and we can test for the static long‐run equilibrium model. Two intermediate cases are the autoregressive and the partial adjustment models which are simpler than the general model but still include dynamics.Our results suggest that the long‐run equilibrium model is unsatisfactory in both countries. A dynamic model is needed. In both countries, the two more restricted dynamic models are rejected. The general dynamic model is required. In Canada, the long‐run equilibrium structure is homothetic with neutral technical change. In the United States, homotheticity is also accepted but neutral technical change is rejected.
Linking of U.S. monetary policy and exchange rates to world soybean markets
Authors: Thraen Cameron S. , Hwang Tsorng‐Chyi , Larson Donald W. 
Published: January 2020

AbstractThe linkage between macroeconomic policies and agricultural commodity trade has become an important research issue of agricultural economists. This paper investigates the macroeconomic linkage of soybean trade competition between the exporting countries of the United States, Brazil, and Argentina in the EC‐12 and Japan import markets. It is argued that U.S. monetary growth may have important impacts on the competitive position of U.S. soybean exports through exchange rates. Two relationships are investigated: (a) the effects of U.S. monetary growth on the agricultural trade weighted exchange rates, and (b) the responsiveness of agricultural commodity prices and U.S. exports to exchange rate movements. Results indicate that a weak dollar increases imports of soybeans and soymeal significantly which serves to increase the equilibrium world price and increase both U.S. and Brazil/Argentina exports in the long run. However, during periods of more expansionary U.S. monetary policy there is little evidence of significant increases in market share position for U.S. soybeans and soymeal in world markets.
A proposal for the reduction of domestic price variability during the phase‐in period of trade liberalization
Authors: Hayes Dermot J. , Wahl Thomas I. , Johnson S.R. 
Published: January 2020

AbstractCountries replacing existing trade barriers with a fixed tariff may find that domestic price variability rises to politically unacceptable levels. This paper shows how the tariff‐reduction formula can be modified to delay the transmission of world price variability. The importance of this modification is demonstrated by a simple two‐country, one‐commodity simulation model.The simulation results show that tariffication of existing EC variable levies/export subsidies would dramatically increase price variability within the European Community and that the transmission of this variability can be delayed by slightly altering the ***adjustment formula.
Soil, water and crop management alternatives in rainfed agriculture in the Sahel: an economic analysis
Authors: Day John C. , Hughes David W. , Butcher Walter R. 
Published: January 2020

ABSTRACTMost agriculture in the Sahel Region is carried out under rainfed conditions where low and uncertain soil moisture levels limit productivity. Improved soil, water and crop management practices are required to reverse the steady decline in per capita food production and sustain output over the long term. Several technological innovations and related farm management practices are evaluated in a case study of a typical farm in Mali. Through use of a soil‐water balance model and a whole‐farm economic model an optimal mix of these measures is identified. Compared to a base case where no modern inputs are utilized, the combination of animal traction (oxen team), low levels of NPK fertilizer, tied‐ridges, traditional long‐season food grain crops and early planting was most effective: food grain output was 35% higher than with the traditional base case; soil erosion was reduced by 72%; and even with residual future soil erosion damage capitalized into current income, net farm income was larger by a factor of almost 45.
Growth in horticultural trade: Japan's market for developing countries
Authors: Honma Masayoshi 
Published: January 2020

ABSTRACTThis paper explores possibilities and opportunities of expansion of horticultural exports from developing countries through an investigation on a rapidly growing market, Japan, as an example among major promising markets. In this paper six horticultural commodities are selected to analyze, emphasizing on exports from developing countries.Observations on Japan's horticultural imports make us presume that consumers differentiate products by place of production. Therefore, import behavior is considered in a two‐stage budgeting procedure. The second‐stage demands for imports from different sources are specified in an almost ideal demand system (AIDS) model and estimated statistically as well as the first‐stage import demand equations. The estimated second‐stage AIDS equations show that the magnitude of own‐price coefficients varies with the source of imports and so does that of expenditure coefficients. Therefore, the characteristics of import demand on a commodity basis, which are captured by the estimates of the first‐stage import demand equations, are not equally transmitted to the demand for imports by source in each commodity.The estimated coefficients of the first‐stage import demand and the second‐stage AIDS equations were combined to obtain the total effects of price and income changes on imports by source. The calculated own‐price elasticities are greater than one in absolute value in ten of the 15 cases and so are the calculated income elasticities in twelve cases. The large elasticities promise suppliers that they benefit from Japan's income growth and that they increase their earnings if they can reduce the price by lowering their costs.However, factors in non‐price competition also play import roles in the import growth. In this paper, the importance of sales promotions by exporters and preshipment inspections was indicated in the cases of mangoes and cut flowers. Other factors such as market structure and public infrastructure for post‐harvest activities were also discussed.
Inflation, capital markets and the supply of beef
Authors: Sapelli Claudio 
Published: January 2020

AbstractThis paper puts forward an explanation for the negative elasticity of supply of beef found in many LDC's. As is explained by Jarvis (1974), the elasticity of supply of beef may be negative in the short run due to the dual role of cattle as both a capital and a consumption good. But in some LDC's, and especially in Latin America, one may find a long‐run negative association between slaughter and prices, that cannot be explained by assuming shocks to slaughter are causing changes in prices. It is no coincidence that Jarvis' hypothesis itself was developed to explain developments in Argentina, a country with chronic high inflation. The paper argues that this long‐run relationship cannot be explained by the Jarvis hypothesis, and offers an alternative hypothesis based on the demand for cattle as a hedge against inflation.The long‐run negative association between slaughter and prices has been found in high inflation countries. High inflation combined with excessive regulation of capital markets cause the well known phenomenon of desintermediation. It is argued here that cattle plays a role in the inflation hedged portfolio that is then demanded. Therefore, with imperfect capital markets the supply of beef is affected by the demand for cattle as an asset, and this demand, in turn, is affected by inflation. This paper will only attempt to prove the link between imperfect capital markets and the supply of beef. The way inflation in a repressed capital market leads to an imperfect capital market is not addressed here, for reasons of brevity. The paper will develop a model that in the context of imperfect capital markets results in a negative elasticity of supply. The model will then be tested with Uruguayan data. Uruguayan data are very adequate to test the hypothesis because they cover both a period without inflation and a period of high inflation. The results support that cattle was used as an alternative to money holdings when inflation signified a big tax on the latter. Inflation therefore affected the demand for cattle, or, conversely, the supply of beef.
On‐site economic evaluation of soil conservation practices in Honduras
Authors: Cárcamo Julio A. , Alwang Jeffrey , Norton George W. 
Published: January 2020

AbstractFactors affecting the cost to the farmer of employing soil erosion reduction strategics are examined for the steep hillsides near Tegucigalpa, Honduras. Linear programming and MOTAD are used to examine these factors. Results indicate that some modest reductions in erosion can be achieved at little cost to the farmer by reorganizing production, switching rotations, and using contour plowing. These modest reductions still lead to extremely high rates of erosion. Sharper reductions may be achieved at progressively higher costs as erosion control structures are constructed and acreage is left fallow. There is a high cost to the farmer of reducing erosion to ‘sustainable’ levels. A consistent tradeoff emerges between levels of soil conservation, income, and risk; erosion reduction efforts lead to lower incomes and higher risk. The analysis of likely benefits to farmers for erosion reduction shows that even under assumptions of very high yield losses from soil erosion, optimal farm plans still lead to high rates of soil loss, implying a need for policies that internalize externalities if off‐farm damages are to be minimized.
Expectations, supply response, and marketing boards: An example from Kenya
Authors: Winter‐Nelson Alex 
Published: January 2020

AbstractWhether farmers form price expectations adaptively or in a forward‐looking manner has implications for supply response analysis and for the implementation of agricultural policy reform. This paper examines the formation of price expectations by Kenyan export‐crop farmers who market their produce through a monopsonistic parastatal. The analysis allows for relaxation of the small‐country assumption within a rational expectations framework. Production behavior is consistent with expectations of future prices based on indicators of aggregate supply and of the marketing board's purchasing capacity. The finding that price forecasts may be formed using information other than previous price levels implies that marketing reforms that raise prices may not raise the relevant price expectations. To elicit a positive supply response, market reforms should be sensitive to farmers' interpretation of institutional signals as well as previous prices.
Economy‐wide reform and agricultural recovery: Observations of economic Darwinism among transition economies
Authors: Valdes Alberto , Gnaegy Suzanne 
Published: January 2020

AbstractThe fitness of an economy and its prospects for continued prosperity will be measured and determined by its robustness and its ability to adapt to changing circumstances. Some countries in transition are adapting much more easily than others to rapid changes in the orientation of their economy, the common objective of which is to achieve economic growth through the adoption of a range of characteristics generally associated with a market economy.Economic growth does not have to be very fast, but it must be efficient and sustainable. Policy adjustments must address political economy concerns, while seeking to achieve macroeconomic equilibrium and price stabilization, competitiveness, efficiency and flexibility, and the protection of the living standards of the most vulnerable population The process of agricultural sector reform will be determined both by economy‐wide policies and sector‐specific policies.This paper first outlines a taxonomy of the objectives of agricultural sector reform, and then discusses the way in which indirect price interventions (specifically exchange rate and interest rate policies, expansive fiscal policies and industrial protection policies), influence agricultural growth. Lessons of experience drawn from the UNDP/World Bank Trade Expansion Program structural and sectoral adjustment operations in Poland, and the cases of New Zealand and Chile are employed to illustrate not only the constraints that countries face in this regard, but also in identifying targets for further action.The third section presents what is called the architecture of incentives for agriculture'. In defining a strategy of agricultural sector reform, experience has shown that a structure of incentives can be developed that creates an environment ripe for agricultural growth‐incentives relating, for example, to taxation, prices, foreign investment, privatization and demonopolization, decentralization and institutional reform. Special considerations that will require additional attention by policy‐makers outside of this structure include the maintenance of GATT‐legal principles in trade policies, issues relating to tariffication (including concerns about price risk management, food supply, and the role of food aid), input and credit subsidies as a means to correct for market failures, and the role of regional trading blocks in world trade.
Dynamic adjustment in the US beef market with imports
Authors: Buhr Brian L. , Kim Hanho 
Published: January 2020

AbstractThis paper hypothesizes that while there are important qualitative differences in domestic beef and imported beef, beef and cattle imports also represent attempts by the US beef processing and wholesale sector to adjust to short‐run changes in supply and demand. Dynamic production theory is applied to the problem to test for this adjustment process, and presents a production theory approach to meat trade that has previously been included in demand functions. The results of this analysis suggest that the method used provides a reasonable and appropriate representation of the import behavior of the US processing and wholesale beef sector.