An Assessment of Sub-Sahara Africa’s GHG emissions from croplands in comparison to some developing nations, with it environmental economics impacts, and mitigation measures.
Authors: Igwe Emmanuel 
Published: December 2024

Abstract

Agricultural lands rank among the top global sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, accounting for over 20% of total GHG output. These lands are heavily influenced by climatic conditions, a challenge that is particularly acute in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where access to mitigation technologies remains limited. The deployment of the Sentinel-7 satellite has facilitated the capture of real-time images of land use and land cover (LULC), revealing that 58% of substantial agricultural areas in this region remain fallow due to climate-related losses, which have rendered them only 0–40% effective for food production. To holistically assess the devastating and deterioration condition of the environment, the study deployed various measuring metrics to examine the intensities of climate variabilities using panel data, and real-time data from remote sensing (RS). Both sources of data were verified via blinded comparison of CO2eqKg emitting capacity from leading croplands emitters countries in SSA, as method to eliminate flawed data. An estimate stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) was used to compute the recorded data from 1988 to 2022 as proven to be most effective model for assessing the impacts of climate change on production since invented and introduced by Aigner, Lovell and Schmidt in 1977. The results revealed that, an increasing emitting index within they six closely monitored countries, with South Africa been the highest emitter of CO2 equivalent in kg in these years, it index was at a peak in 1990 with estimated value of 64kg CO2eqKg, in the year 2017, emitting index dropped to 58 kg CO2eqKg. The second highest emitter was Ethiopia with emitting rate in 2007 valued at 24kg CO2eqKg. The next is Nigeria with mean contributory value of 21Kg CO2eqKg. It was established that each of the so-called 3 nations (South Africa, Ethiopia and Nigeria) defined as heavy emitters in SSA, annually contributory quota to global GHGs emission is far above what is emitted in industrialized nation (Germany, India, Poland) as investigated. The study uncovered that an estimated total cropland of 10881657.5 square hectares in North central Tier 2 (Nigeria, Niger) and North central Tier 3 (Sudan, Ethiopia) is considered as the hotspot of the GHG emission index in SSA. The implications of the above findings were recorded from the year 2013–2022 as the most diminution years in the region, with a forecasted 21% ecological resources (aquatic species) decline in the coming years. Resonating from the situation is food security and environmental safety burden coming from the of disastrous nature of ecological resources in SSA. The study anticipated that; Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya, Mali, and Burundi, Zambia are likely to be most affected due to it high volumes of GHGs emitted annually, in combination with significant anthropogenic activities, and long standing unsustainable agricultural practices in these countries. The study suggested the integration and adaptation of locally crops breed with significant GHGs adsorption rate, resilient to inconsistency in soil conditions, and supportive compatible technologies implementable by the local farmers.