bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Hybrid SVR-SARIMA model for tourism forecasting using PROMETHEE II as a selection methodology: a Philippine scenario
Authors: Abellana Dharyll Prince Mariscal , Rivero Donna Marie Canizares , Aparente Ma. Elena , Rivero Aries 
Published: May 2020

Purpose
This paper aims to propose a hybrid-forecasting model for long-term tourism demand forecasting. As such, it attempts to model the tourism demand in the Philippines, which is a relatively underrepresented area in the literature, despite its tourism sector’s growing economic progress.

Design/methodology/approach
A hybrid support vector regression (SVR) – seasonal autoregressive integrated moving averages (SARIMA) model is proposed to model the seasonal, linear and nonlinear components of the tourism demand in a destination country. The paper further proposes the use of multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) approaches in selecting the best forecasting model among a set of considered models. As such, a preference ranking organization method for enrichment of evaluations (PROMETHEE) II is used to rank the considered forecasting models.

Findings
The proposed hybrid SVR-SARIMA model is the best performing model among a set of considered models in this paper using performance criteria that evaluate the errors of magnitude, directionality and trend change, of a forecasting model. Moreover, the use of the MCDM approach is found to be a relevant and prospective approach in selecting the best forecasting model among a set of models.

Originality/value
The novelty of this paper lies in several aspects. First, this paper pioneers the demonstration of the SVR-SARIMA model’s capability in forecasting long-term tourism demand. Second, this paper is the first to have proposed and demonstrated the use of an MCDM approach for performing model selection in forecasting. Finally, this paper is one of the very few papers to provide lenses on the current status of Philippine tourism demand.
My way to the second generation of behavioral finance
Authors: Statman Meir 
Published: May 2020

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to depict how the author's way from standard finance to the first and second generations of behavioral finance illustrates the ongoing general transition.Design/methodology/approachThe first generation, starting in the early 1980s, largely accepted standard finance's notion of people's wants as “rational” wants – restricted to the utilitarian benefits of high returns and low risk. That first generation commonly described people as “irrational” – succumbing to cognitive and emotional errors and misled on their way to their rational wants. The second generation describes people as normal.FindingsIt begins by acknowledging the full range of people's normal wants and their benefits – utilitarian, expressive and emotional – distinguishes normal wants from errors and offers guidance on using shortcuts and avoiding errors on the way to satisfying normal wants. People's normal wants include financial security, nurturing children and families, gaining high social status and staying true to values. People's normal wants, even more than their cognitive and emotional shortcuts and errors, underlie answers to important questions of finance, including saving and spending, portfolio construction, asset pricing and market efficiency.Originality/valueThe article identifies that people's normal wants include financial security, nurturing children and families, gaining high social status and staying true to values. People's normal wants, even more than their cognitive and emotional shortcuts and errors, underlie answers to important questions of finance, including saving and spending, portfolio construction, asset pricing and market efficiency.
Sharing economy and peer-to-peer accommodation – a perspective paper
Authors: Dolnicar Sara 
Published: May 2020

Purpose
This paper aims to provide a snapshot of key learnings about paid online peer-to-peer accommodation trading, as it relates to tourism and hospitality, and to identify future research questions.

Design/methodology/approach
The paper paints a picture and discusses research conducted in the past, which relates to paid online peer-to-peer accommodation, in brief. It also lists a number of specific research questions which should be investigated in future.

Findings
Some of the key topics, such as the business model of facilitators of peer-to-peer trading and the necessary regularly responses, have been extensively studied. The focus should now turn on how peer-to-peer trading of travel-related services can best be leveraged to the benefit of economies, communities and people.

Originality/value
The main value of this perspective paper lies in offering a succinct overview of research into paid online peer-to-peer accommodation and pointing to key questions for future research.
Public‐to‐Private Buyouts and Innovation
Authors: Cumming Douglas , Peter Rejo , Tarsalewska Monika 
Published: May 2020

AbstractWe study the effect of public‐to‐private buyout transactions on investments in innovation using an international sample over the 1997–2017 period. We use patent counts and citations to proxy for the quantity, quality and economic importance of innovation. Our results are based on time analysis and matched sample regressions. The data indicate that buyouts are associated with a significant reduction in patents and patent citations, including a reduction in radical (i.e. more scientific) patents. When we split the sample into institutional and management buyouts, the negative effect of buyouts is confirmed only for institutional buyouts. This suggests that only institutional buyouts prevent target firms from adopting long‐term investments. This finding is confirmed by reductions in innovator employment and innovation efficiency subsequent to going private. Moreover, the data indicate that the negative effect is most prevalent for transactions where the cost of the deal's debt financing is higher than that of the debt post‐buyout. We rule out some alternative explanations for these findings, including but not limited to outliers, truncation bias and endogeneity.
The public salience of crime, 1960–2014: Age–period–cohort and time–series analyses†
Authors: Shi Luzi , Lu Yunmei , Pickett Justin T. 
Published: May 2020

AbstractThe public salience of crime has wide‐ranging political and social implications; it influences public trust in the government and citizens’ everyday routines and interactions, and it may affect policy responsiveness to punitive attitudes. Identifying the sources of crime salience is thus important. Two competing theoretical models exist: the objectivist model and the social constructionist model. According to the first, crime salience is a function of the crime rate. According to the second, crime salience is a function of media coverage and political rhetoric, and trends in crime salience differ across population subgroups as a result of differences in their responsiveness to elite initiatives. In both theories, period‐level effects predominate. Variation in crime salience, however, may also reflect age and cohort effects. Using data from 422,504 respondents interviewed between 1960 and 2014, we first examine the nature of crime salience using hierarchical age–period–cohort (HAPC) models and then analyze period‐level predictors using first differences. We find that 1) crime salience varies mostly at the period level; 2) crime salience trends are parallel (cointegrated) across demographic, socioeconomic, and partisan groups; and 3) crime salience trends within every population subgroup are most consistent with the constructionist model. The crime rate does not exert a significant effect in any subgroup.
Is life without parole an effective way to reduce violent crime? An empirical assessment
Authors: Kleinstuber Ross , Coldsmith Jeremiah 
Published: May 2020

Research SummaryBy taking advantage of data published by the Sentencing Project to analyze whether states that use life without parole (LWOP) more often experience lower violent crime rates or greater reductions in violent crime, this study is the first to empirically assess the crime‐reducing potential of LWOP sentences. The results suggest that LWOP might produce a small absolute reduction in violent crime but that it is no more effective than life with parole.Policy ImplicationsDespite reductions in the use of the death penalty, LWOP has expanded dramatically—and at a much faster rate—over the last quarter century. This expansion has come at great financial and human costs and has not been distributed equally throughout the population. As such, the public policy debate over the use of LWOP is likely to intensify. Yet, to date, there have been no empirical assessments of LWOP's efficacy to inform this debate. This study begins to fill this gap in our knowledge, and the results, if replicated, suggest that the use of LWOP should be either scaled back or eliminated.
Linked‐read sequencing enables haplotype‐resolved resequencing at population scale
Authors: Lutgen Dave , Ritter Raphael , Olsen Remi‐André , Schielzeth Holger , Gruselius Joel , Ewels Philip , García Jesús T. , Shirihai Hadoram , Schweizer Manuel , Suh Alexander , Burri Reto 
Published: May 2020

AbstractThe feasibility to sequence entire genomes of virtually any organism provides unprecedented insights into the evolutionary history of populations and species. Nevertheless, many population genomic inferences – including the quantification and dating of admixture, introgression and demographic events, and inference of selective sweeps – are still limited by the lack of high‐quality haplotype information. The newest generation of sequencing technology now promises significant progress. To establish the feasibility of haplotype‐resolved genome resequencing at population scale, we investigated properties of linked‐read sequencing data of songbirds of the genus Oenanthe across a range of sequencing depths. Our results based on the comparison of downsampled (25×, 20×, 15×, 10×, 7×, and 5×) with high‐coverage data (46–68×) of seven bird genomes mapped to a reference suggest that phasing contiguities and accuracies adequate for most population genomic analyses can be reached already with moderate sequencing effort. At 15× coverage, phased haplotypes span about 90% of the genome assembly, with 50% and 90% of phased sequences located in phase blocks longer than 1.25–4.6 Mb (N50) and 0.27–0.72 Mb (N90). Phasing accuracy reaches beyond 99% starting from 15× coverage. Higher coverages yielded higher contiguities (up to about 7 Mb/1 Mb [N50/N90] at 25× coverage), but only marginally improved phasing accuracy. Phase block contiguity improved with input DNA molecule length; thus, higher‐quality DNA may help keeping sequencing costs at bay. In conclusion, even for organisms with gigabase‐sized genomes like birds, linked‐read sequencing at moderate depth opens an affordable avenue towards haplotype‐resolved genome resequencing at population scale.
Parametrizing diffusion‐taxis equations from animal movement trajectories using step selection analysis
Authors: Potts Jonathan R. , Schlägel Ulrike E. 
Published: May 2020

Abstract

Mathematical analysis of partial differential equations (PDEs) has led to many insights regarding the effect of organism movements on spatial population dynamics. However, their use has mainly been confined to the community of mathematical biologists, with less attention from statistical and empirical ecologists. We conjecture that this is principally due to the inherent difficulties in fitting PDEs to data.

To help remedy this situation, in the context of movement ecology, we show how the popular technique of step selection analysis (SSA) can be used to parametrize a class of PDEs, called diffusion‐taxis models, from an animal's trajectory. We examine the accuracy of our technique on simulated data, then demonstrate the utility of diffusion‐taxis models in two ways. First, for non‐interacting animals, we derive the steady‐state utilization distribution in a closed analytic form. Second, we give a recipe for deriving spatial pattern formation properties that emerge from interacting animals: specifically, do those interactions cause heterogeneous spatial distributions to emerge and if so, do these distributions oscillate at short times or emerge without oscillations? The second question is applied to data on concurrently tracked bank voles Myodes glareolus.

Our results show that SSA can accurately parametrize diffusion‐taxis equations from location data, providing the frequency of the data is not too low. We show that the steady‐state distribution of our diffusion‐taxis model, where it is derived, has an identical functional form to the utilization distribution given by resource selection analysis (RSA), thus formally linking (fine scale) SSA with (broad scale) RSA. For the bank vole data, we show how our SSA‐PDE approach can give predictions regarding the spatial aggregation and segregation of different individuals, which are difficult to predict purely by examining results of SSA.

Our methods provide a user‐friendly way into the world of PDEs, via a well‐used statistical technique, which should lead to tighter links between the findings of mathematical ecology and observations from empirical ecology. By providing a non‐speculative link between observed movement behaviours and space use patterns on larger spatio‐temporal scales, our findings will also aid integration of movement ecology into understanding spatial species distributions.
Bridging the Pacific Ocean? Tactical Maneuvering Instead of Grand Strategy in Chile’s Foreign Policy toward Southeast Asia
Authors: Jenne Nicole 
Published: May 2020

Chile often portrays itself as Latin America’s bridge to Asia, where the ASEAN countries have been singled out as its new priority. Yet, it is not difficult to see that Chile, a small and peripheral state, does not actually serve as a gateway between Latin America and Southeast Asia. This article argues that Chile has lacked consistency in its approach toward Southeast Asia as well as focus of purpose to become a bridge‐builder due to the structural constraints faced by a small state. Based on an analytical framework of small states’ foreign policies, I revisit Chile’s relations with Southeast Asia, pointing to factors driving and limiting deeper engagement with the distant region. The analysis shows that a risk‐adverse, low‐profile approach of tactical maneuvering has served Chile’s objectives even though it is insufficient to bridge the Pacific Ocean. The article concludes with a reflection on this trans‐Pacific relationship.
CD52‐negative T cells predict acute graft‐versus‐host disease after an alemtuzumab‐based conditioning regimen
Authors: Woelfinger Pascal , Epp Katharina , Schaefer Lukas , Kriege Diana , Theobald Matthias , Bopp Tobias , Wagner‐Drouet Eva‐Maria 
Published: May 2020

SummaryAllogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) after a reduced‐intensity conditioning (RIC) regimen with fludarabine, melphalan and alemtuzmab is an effective therapy for haematological malignancies. Alemtuzumab, a monoclonal antibody against CD52, a glycosylphosphatidylinositol‐anchor‐bound surface protein on lymphocytes, depletes T cells to prevent graft‐versus‐host disease (GVHD). Despite this, acute and chronic GVHD (a/cGVHD) remain life‐threatening complications after HSCT. The aim of the present study was to identify parameters to predict GVHD. In 69 patients after HSCT, T‐cell subsets were functionally analysed. Reconstitution of CD52neg T cells and CD52neg regulatory T cells (Tregs) correlated with onset, severity and clinical course of aGVHD. Patients with aGVHD showed significantly lower levels of CD52pos T cells compared to patients with cGVHD or without GVHD (P < 0·001). Analysis of T‐cell reconstitution revealed a percentage of <40% of CD52posCD4pos T cells or CD52pos Tregs at day +50 as a risk factor for the development of aGVHD. In contrast, CD52neg Tregs showed significant decreased levels of glycoprotein A repetitions predominant (GARP; P < 0·001), glucocorticoid‐induced TNFR‐related protein (GITR; P < 0·001), chemokine receptor (CXCR3; P = 0·023), C‐C chemokine receptor type 5 (CCR5; P = 0·004), but increased levels of immunoglobulin‐like transcript 3 (ILT3; P = 0·001), as well as a reduced suppressive capacity. We conclude that reconstitution of CD52neg T cells and CD52neg Tregs is a risk factor for development of aGVHD.
Reproductive hormones during pubertal transition in girls with transient Thelarche
Authors: Soto Julio , Pereira Ana , Busch Alexander Siegfried , Almstrup Kristian , Corvalan Camila , Iñiguez German , Juul Anders , Mericq Veronica 
Published: May 2020

AbstractContextTransient thelarche (TT), that is, the appearance, regression and subsequent reappearance of breast buds, is a frequent phenomenon, but little is known about pubertal transition in these girls.ObjectiveTo describe pubertal progression, growth, genotypes, reproductive hormones and growth factors in girls with TT compared to those who do not present TT (non‐TT).DesignRetrospective analysis of a longitudinal population‐based study.Patients or Other ParticipantsGirls (n = 508) of the Chilean Growth and Obesity cohort.MeasurementsPubertal progression, reproductive hormones, follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) beta subunit/FSH receptor gene single nucleotide polymorphisms and growth.ResultsThirty‐seven girls (7.3%) were presented TT. These girls entered puberty by pubarche more frequently (51%) than girls with normal progression (non‐TT; n = 471; 23%, P = .005). Girls with TT who were under 8 years old had lower androgens, anti‐Müllerian hormone (AMH), luteinizing hormone (LH) and oestradiol (all P < .05) than older girls with TT. At the time of Tanner breast stage 2 (B2), girls with TT had higher androgens, LH, FSH, IGF1, LH, insulin and oestradiol (P < .01) than at the time of TT. TT girls were older at B2 (10.3 ± 1.1 vs. 9.2 ± 1.2 years, P < .001) and menarche (12.3 ± 0.8 vs. 12.0 ± 1.0 years, P = .040) than their counterparts (non‐TT). No differences in anthropometric variables or FSHB/FSHR genotypes were detected.ConclusionTransient thelarche is a frequent phenomenon that does not appear to be mediated by hypothalamic‐pituitary‐gonadal axis activation or by adiposity. Hormonal differences between earlier TT and later TT suggest that their mechanisms are different.
The prevalence and associated factors of proximal contact loss between implant restoration and adjacent tooth after function: A retrospective study
Authors: Liang Chao‐Hua , Nien Chung‐Yi , Chen Yu‐Ling , Hsu Kuang‐Wei 
Published: May 2020

AbstractBackgroundDental implant is widely used as a treatment for missing teeth. However, proximal contact loss (PCL) between implant‐supported fixed dental prostheses (FDP) and adjacent teeth has been reported as one of the common and adverse complications.PurposeWe aimed to evaluate the prevalence of PCL up to 18 years after implant prosthesis delivery and to analyze associated factors.Materials and methodsA total of 317 patients who had received implant FDP at the posterior regions were included in this study. Nineteen factors were assessed, including degrees of proximal contact tightness, oral hygiene, periodontal conditions, and food impaction. Chi‐square test, univariate generalized estimating equation (GEE), and multivariate GEE were utilized to identify factors influencing PCL.ResultsProximal contacts at both the mesial and distal (if present) sides were evaluated. The mesial contact loss rate (27%) was significantly higher than that of the distal contact loss (5%). Increased PCL rates over functional time were observed at both the mesial and distal sides. Six factors, including patient age, implant functional years, frequent use of interdental brushes, splinting or single implant, plunger cusp, and food impaction, were revealed to be associated with the mesial PCL using the chi‐square test and univariate GEE analysis. However, only functional years (>5 years), frequent use of interdental brushes and food impaction showed significance in the multivariate GEE.ConclusionsMesial PCL was frequent and increased over functional years. An occlusal retainer and routine follow‐up may help prevent PCL. Although oral hygiene conditions contribute little to PCL, food impaction and frequent use of interdental brushes were influential factors.
Dynamic relationships between phonological memory and reading: A five year longitudinal study from age 4 to 9
Authors: Cunningham Anna J. , Burgess Adrian P. , Witton Caroline , Talcott Joel B. , Shapiro Laura R. 
Published: May 2020

AbstractWe reconcile competing theories of the role of phonological memory in reading development, by uncovering their dynamic relationship during the first 5 years of school. Phonological memory, reading and phoneme awareness were assessed in 780 phonics‐educated children at age 4, 5, 6 and 9. Confirmatory factor analyses demonstrated that phonological memory loaded onto two factors: verbal short‐term memory (verbal STM; phonological tasks that loaded primarily on serial order memory) and nonword repetition. Using longitudinal structural equation models, we found that verbal STM directly predicted early word‐level reading from age 4 to 6, reflecting the importance of serial‐order memory for letter‐by‐letter decoding. In contrast, reading had no reciprocal influence on the development of verbal STM. The relationship between nonword repetition and reading was bidirectional across the 5 years of study: nonword repetition and reading predicted each other both directly and indirectly (via phoneme awareness). Indirect effects from nonword repetition (and verbal STM) to reading support the view that phonological memory stimulates phonemically detailed representations through repeated encoding of complex verbal stimuli. Similarly, the indirect influence of reading on nonword repetition suggests that improved reading ability promotes the phoneme‐level specificity of phonological representations. Finally, the direct influence from reading to nonword repetition suggests that better readers use orthographic cues to help them remember and repeat new words accurately. A video abstract of this article can be viewed at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=70LZfTR0BjE.
Network structure of psychotic‐like experiences in adolescents: Links with risk and protective factors
Authors: Fonseca‐Pedrero Eduardo , Muñiz José , Gacía‐Portilla Mª Paz , Bobes Julio 
Published: May 2020

AbstractAimThe main goal was to analyse the network structure of psychotic‐like experiences (PLEs) in a large sample of adolescents. In addition, the network structure between PLEs and putative risk (mental health difficulties, suicidal behaviour, depression symptoms) and protective factors (prosocial behaviour, subjective well‐being, self‐esteem) for psychosis was analysed.MethodsThe sample compromised a total of 1790 adolescents (M=15.7 years; SD=1.26), 816 men (45.6%), selected by stratified random cluster sampling. Various tools were used to measure PLEs, general psychopathology, suicide ideation and behaviour, depression symptoms, prosocial behaviour, subjective well‐being, and self‐esteem. The Gaussian graphical model for continuous variables and Ising model for binary variables were used for network estimation.ResultsThe PLEs estimated network was strongly interconnected. Unusual perceptual experiences were among the most central nodes. The average predictability of this network was 16.41%. The PLEs and risk and protective factors estimated network showed a high degree of interconnectedness between PLEs and psychopathology domains. PLEs, behavioural problems, and emotional symptoms were among the most central nodes. The mean predictability of this network was 43.46%. The results of the stability and accuracy analysis indicated that networks were accurately estimated.ConclusionsAt population level, extended psychosis phenotype can be conceptualized as a network of interacting cognitive, emotional, and behavioural features. The network model allows us to understand psychosis risk, at the same time opening new lines of study in the mental health arena.