bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Estimates of COVID-19 case-fatality risk from individual-level data
Authors: Assche Simona Bignami-Van , Ghio Daniela , Van Assche Ari 
Published: April 2020

ABSTRACTWhen calculated from aggregate data on confirmed cases and deaths, the case-fatality risk (CFR) is a simple ratio between the former and the latter, which is prone to numerous biases. With individual-level data, the CFR can be estimated as a true measure of risk as the proportion of incidence for the disease. We present the first estimates of the CFR for COVID-19 by age and sex based on event history modelling of the risk of dying among confirmed positive individuals in the Canadian province of Ontario, which maintains one of the few individual-level datasets on COVID-19 in the world.
Mental health outcomes among front and second line health workers associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy
Authors: Rossi Rodolfo , Socci Valentina , Pacitti Francesca , Di Lorenzo Giorgio , Di Marco Antinisca , Siracusano Alberto , Rossi Alessandro 
Published: April 2020

AbstractIn this study, we report on mental health outcomes among health workers (HWs) involved with the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy.Data on mental health on 1379 HWs were collected between March 27th and March 31th 2020 using an on-line questionnaire spread throughout social networks, using a snowball technique along with sponsored social network advertisement. Key mental health outcomes were Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder symptoms (PTSD), severe depression, anxiety, insomnia and perceived stress.PTSD symptoms, severe depression, anxiety and insomnia, and high perceived stress were endorsed respectively by 681 (49.38%), 341 (24.73%), 273 (19.80%), 114 (8.27%) and 302 (21.90%) respondents. Regression analysis show that younger age, female gender, being a front-line HWs, having a colleague deceased, hospitalised or in quarantine were associated with poor mental health outcomes.This is the first report on mental health outcomes and associated risk factors among HWs associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy, confirming a substantial proportion of health workers involved with the COVID-19 pandemic having mental health issues, in particular young women, first-line HWs.
LONG-TERM CLINICAL OUTCOMES IN SURVIVORS OF CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAKS AFTER HOSPITALISATION OR ICU ADMISSION: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW AND META-ANALYSIS OF FOLLOW-UP STUDIES
Authors: Ahmed Hassaan , Patel Kajal , Greenwood Darren , Halpin Stephen , Lewthwaite Penny , Salawu Abayomi , Eyre Lorna , Breen Andrew , O’Connor Rory , Jones Anthony , Sivan Manoj 
Published: April 2020

ABSTRACTObjectiveTo determine the long-term clinical problems in adult survivors of coronavirus (CoV) infection [Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS)] after hospitalisation or Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission.DesignSystematic review and meta-analysis of the literature.Data sourcesOvid MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL Plus and PsycINFO were searched using the strategy: (Coronavirus OR Coronavirus Infections OR COVID OR SARS virus OR Severe acute respiratory syndrome OR MERS OR Middle east respiratory syndrome) AND (Follow-up OR Follow-up studies OR Prevalence). Original studies reporting the clinical outcomes of adult survivors of coronavirus outbreaks two months after discharge or three months after admission were included. The quality of the studies was assessed using the Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine (OCEBM) 2009 Level of Evidence Tool. Meta-analysis was conducted to derive pooled estimates of prevalence and severity for different outcomes at time points up to 6 months follow-up and beyond 6 months follow-up.ResultsThe search yielded 1169 studies of which 28 were included in this review. There were 15 Level 1b, 8 Level 2b, 2 Level 3b and 3 Level 4 studies by OCEBM grading. Pooled analysis of studies revealed that complications commonly observed were impaired diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO) [prevalence of 27.26%, 95% CI 14.87 to 44.57] and reduced exercise capacity [(6-minute walking distance (6MWD) mean 461m, 95% CI 449.66 to 472.71] at 6 months with limited improvement beyond 6 months. Coronavirus survivors had considerable prevalence of psychological disorders such as post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) [38.80%, CI 30.93 to 47.31], depression [33.20%, CI 19.80 to 50.02] and anxiety [30.04%, CI 10.44 to 61.26) beyond 6 months. These complications were accompanied by low Short Form 36 (SF-36) scores at 6 months and beyond indicating reduced quality of life which is present long-term.ConclusionsThe long term clinical problems in survivors of CoV infections (SARS and MERS) after hospitalisation or Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission include respiratory dysfunction, reduced exercise capacity, psychological problems such as PTSD, depression and anxiety, and reduced quality of life. Critical care, rehabilitation and mental health services should anticipate a high prevalence of these problems following COVID-19 and ensure their adequate and timely management with the aim of restoring premorbid quality of life.
Projections for first-wave COVID-19 deaths across the US using social-distancing measures derived from mobile phones
Authors: Woody Spencer , Tec Mauricio , Dahan Maytal , Gaither Kelly , Lachmann Michael , Fox Spencer J. , Meyers Lauren Ancel , Scott James ,   The University of Texas at Austin COVID-19 Modeling Consortium
Published: April 2020

AbstractWe propose a Bayesian model for projecting first-wave COVID-19 deaths in all 50 U.S. states. Our model’s projections are based on data derived from mobile-phone GPS traces, which allows us to estimate how social-distancing behavior is “flattening the curve” in each state. In a two-week look-ahead test of out-of-sample forecasting accuracy, our model significantly outperforms the widely used model from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), achieving 42% lower prediction error: 13.2 deaths per day average error across all U.S. states, versus 22.8 deaths per day average error for the IHME model. Our model also provides an accurate, if slightly conservative, assessment of forecasting accuracy: in the same look-ahead test, 98% of data points fell within the model’s 95% credible intervals. Our model’s projections are updated daily at https://covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu/projections/.
Review of Current Evidence of Hydroxychloroquine in Pharmacotherapy of COVID-19
Authors: Suranagi Umesh Devappa , Rehan Harmeet Singh , Goyal Nitesh 
Published: April 2020

ABSTRACTImportanceThe COVID-19 Pandemic has literally left the world breathless in the chase for pharmacotherapy. With vaccine and novel drug development in early clinical trials, repurposing of existing drugs takes the center stage.ObjectiveA potential drug discussed in global scientific community is hydroxychloroquine. We intend to systematically explore, analyze, rate the existing evidence of hydroxychloroquine in the light of published, unpublished and clinical trial data.Evidence reviewPubMed Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, Google scholar databases, pre-proof article repositories, clinical trial registries were comprehensively searched with focused question of use of hydroxychloroquine in COVID-19 patients. The literature was systematically explored as per PRISMA guidelines.FindingsTotal 156 articles were available as of 7th May 2020; of which 11 articles of relevance were analyzed. Three in-vitro studies were reviewed. Two open label non-randomized trials, two open label randomized control trials, one large observational study, one follow-up study and two retrospective cohort studies were systematically analyzed and rated by oxford CEBM and GRADE framework for quality and strength of evidence. Also 27 clinical trials registered in three clinical trial registries were analyzed and summarized. Hydroxychloroquine seems to be efficient in inhibiting SARS-CoV-2 in in-vitro cell lines. However, there is lack of strong evidence from human studies. It was found that overall quality of available evidence ranges from ‘very low’ to ‘low’.Conclusions and relevanceThe in-vitro cell culture based data of viral inhibition does not suffice for the use of hydroxychloroquine in the patients with COVID-19. Current literature shows inadequate, low level evidence in human studies. Scarcity of safety and efficacy data warrants medical communities, health care agencies and governments across the world against the widespread use of hydroxychloroquine in COVID-19 prophylaxis and treatment, until robust evidence becomes available.KEY POINTSQuestionWhat is the current evidence for use of Hydroxychloroquine in pharmacotherapy of COVID-19?FindingsWe electronically explored various databases and clinical trial registries and identified 11 publications and 27 clinical trials with active recruitment. The in-vitro study data demonstrates the viral inhibition by hydroxychloroquine. The clinical studies are weakly designed and conducted with insufficient reporting and significant limitations. Well designed robust clinical trials are being conducted all over the world and results of few such robust studies are expected shortly.MeaningCurrent evidence stands inadequate to support the use of hydroxychloroquine in pharmacotherapy of COVID-19.
COVID-19 Outbreak Situations in Bangladesh: An Empirical Analysis
Authors: Rahaman Khan Md Hasinur , Hossain Ahmed 
Published: April 2020

AbstractCOVID-19 disease, as popularly known as Coronavirus 2019 disease, has been emerged from Wuhan, China in December 2019 and now is a pandemic for almost every nation in the earth. It affects every country without considering country’s race, nationality and economic status. This paper aims at analysing primarily the current situations of Bangladesh and predicting infections and deaths for moderated term intervals by a proposed projection technique called Infection Trajectory-Pathway Strategy (ITPS) and for short term intervals prediction for total infections, deaths along with total number of severe patients and Intensive Care Unit (ICU) patients by polynomial regression modeling approach. Since April 7, Bangladesh has started to face critical situations as the number of infections has accelerated very fast in the following days. However, the fatality rate decreases considerably from 15.7 on April 1 to 4.9 on April 14, which is still high among the south asian countries. Of the 1012 cases reported on April 14, almost 70% are the male, 42% are from the capital Dhaka. We have found that the potential pathway of infections for Bangldesh would be the similar pathways that are experienced by Austria, Netherlands, Israel, France and United Kingdom. These countries are ahead a number of weeks and days in terms of infection cases since their 100-th confirmed cases. Our proposed projection method ITPS suggests that by May 10, Bangladesh will cross 12000 incidences and 720 deaths which, by May 16 will be 27000 and 1644 respectively. On the other hand, the regression model suggests that by the end of April, total number of infections, deaths, severe patients and ICU patients will be 5780, 347, 775, and 694 respectively. This study will be favorable for the administrative units of Bangladesh to plan for the next few weeks and to consider various aspects related to the control of COVID-19 outspread in Bangladesh.
Power calculations for detecting differences in efficacy of fecal microbiota donors
Authors: Olesen Scott W. 
Published: April 2020

AbstractFecal microbiota transplantation (FMT) is a recommended therapy for recurrent Clostridioides difficile infection and is being investigated as a potential therapy for dozens of other indications, notably inflammatory bowel disease. The immense variability in human stool, combined with anecdotal reports from FMT studies, have suggested the existence of “donor effects”, in which stool from some FMT donors is more efficacious than stool from other donors. In this study, simulated clinical trials were used to estimate the number of patients that would be required to detect donor effects under a variety of study designs. In most cases, reliable detection of donor effects required more than 100 patients treated with FMT. These results suggest that previous reports of donor effects need to be verified with results from large clinical trials and that patient biomarkers may be the most promising route to robustly identifying donor effects.
Prediction of Coronavirus Disease (covid-19) Evolution in USA with the Model Based on the Eyring’s Rate Process Theory and Free Volume Concept
Authors: Hao Tian 
Published: April 2020

AbstractA modification arguing that the human movement energy may change with time is made on our previous infectious disease model, in which infectious disease transmission is considered as a sequential chemical reaction and reaction rate constants obey the Eyring’s rate process theory and free volume concept. The modified model is employed to fit current covid-19 outbreak data in USA and to make predictions on the numbers of the infected, the removed and the death in the foreseeable future. Excellent fitting curves and regression quality are obtained, indicating that the model is working and the predictions may be close to reality. Our work could provide some ideas on what we may expect in the future and how we can prepare accordingly for this difficult period.
Automatic Identification of Upper Extremity Rehabilitation Exercise Type and Dose Using Body-Worn Sensors and Machine Learning: A Pilot Study
Authors: Balestra Noah , Sharma Gaurav , Riek Linda M. , Busza Ania 
Published: April 2020

AbstractStroke is a major cause of adult-onset disability worldwide, and approximately 40% of stroke survivors have residual impairment in upper-extremity function. Prior studies suggest that increased participation in rehabilitation exercises improves motor function post-stroke,1however further clarification of optimal exercise dose and timing has been limited by the technical challenge of quantifying exercise activities over multiple days. In this exploratory study, we assessed the feasibility of using body-worn sensors to track rehabilitation exercises in the inpatient setting, and investigated which recording parameters and data analysis strategies are sufficient for accurately identifying and counting exercise repetitions. MC10 BioStampRC® sensors were used to measure accelerometry and gyroscopy from arms of healthy controls (n=11) and patients with arm weakness due to recent stroke (n=13) while the subjects performed three pre-selected upper extremity exercises. Sensor data was then labeled by exercise type, and this labeled data set was used to train a machine learning classification algorithm for identifying exercise type. The machine-learning algorithm and a peak-finding algorithm was used to count exercise repetitions in non-labeled data sets. We achieved a repetition counting accuracy of 95.6 ± 2.4 % overall, and 95.0 ± 2.3 % in patients with arm weakness due to stroke. Accuracy was decreased when using fewer sensors or using accelerometry alone. Our exploratory study suggests that body-worn sensor systems are technically feasible, well-tolerated in subjects with recent stroke, and may ultimately be useful for developing a system to measure total exercise “dose” in post-stroke patients during clinical rehabilitation or clinical trials.
Effectiveness and Safety of Glucocorticoids to Treat COVID-19: A Rapid Review and Meta-Analysis
Authors: Lu Shuya , Zhou Qi , Huang Liping , Shi Qianling , Zhao Siya , Wang Zijun , Li Weiguo , Tang Yuyi , Ma Yanfang , Luo Xufei , Fukuoka Toshio , Ahn Hyeong Sik , Lee Myeong Soo , Luo Zhengxiu , Liu Enmei , Chen Yaolong , Zhou Chenyan , Peng Donghong 
Published: April 2020

AbstractBackgroundGlucocorticoids are widely used in the treatment of various pulmonary inflammatory diseases, but they are also often accompanied by significant adverse reactions. Published guidelines point out that low dose and short duration systemic glucocorticoid therapy may be considered for patients with rapidly progressing COVID-19 while the evidence is still limited.MethodsWe comprehensively searched electronic databases and supplemented the screening by conducting a manual search. We included RCTs and cohort studies evaluating the effectiveness and safety of glucocorticoids in children and adults with COVID-19, SARS and MERS, and conducted meta-analyses of the main indicators that were identified in the studies.ResultsOur search retrieved 23 studies, including one RCT and 22 cohort studies, with a total of 13,815 patients. In adults with COVID-19, the use of systemic glucocorticoid did not reduce mortality (RR=2.00, 95% CI: 0.69 to 5.75,I2=90.9%) or the duration of lung inflammation (WMD=-1 days, 95% CI: -2.91 to 0.91), while a significant reduction was found in the duration of fever (WMD=-3.23 days, 95% CI: -3.56 to -2.90). In patients with SARS, glucocorticoids also did not reduce the mortality (RR=1.52, 95% CI: 0.89 to 2.60,I2=84.6%), duration of fever (WMD=0.82 days, 95% CI: -2.88 to 4.52,I2=97.9%) or duration of lung inflammation absorption (WMD=0.95 days, 95% CI: -7.57 to 9.48,I2=94.6%). The use of systemic glucocorticoid therapy prolonged the duration of hospital stay in all patients (COVID-19, SARS and MERS).ConclusionsGlucocorticoid therapy was found to reduce the duration of fever, but not mortality, duration of hospitalization or lung inflammation absorption. Long-term use of high-dose glucocorticoids increased the risk of adverse reactions such as coinfections, so routine use of systemic glucocorticoids for patients with COVID-19 cannot be recommend.
CAN-NPI: A Curated Open Dataset of Canadian Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions in Response to the Global COVID-19 Pandemic
Authors: McCoy Liam G. , Smith Jonathan , Anchuri Kavya , Berry Isha , Pineda Joanna , Harish Vinyas , Lam Andrew T. , Yi Seung Eun , Hu Sophie ,   COVID-19 Canada Open Data Working Group: Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions, Fine Benjamin 
Published: April 2020

AbstractNon-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been the primary tool used by governments and organizations to mitigate the spread of the ongoing pandemic of COVID-19. Natural experiments are currently being conducted on the impact of these interventions, but most of these occur at the subnational level - data not available in early global datasets. We describe the rapid development of the first comprehensive, labelled dataset of 1640 NPIs implemented at federal, provincial/territorial and municipal levels in Canada to guide COVID-19 research. For each intervention, we provide: a) information on timing to aid in longitudinal evaluation, b) location to allow for robust spatial analyses, and c) classification based on intervention type and target population, including classification aligned with a previously developed measure of government response stringency. This initial dataset release (v1.0) spans January 1st, and March 31st, 2020; bi-weekly data updates to continue for the duration of the pandemic. This novel dataset enables robust, inter-jurisdictional comparisons of pandemic response, can serve as a model for other jurisdictions and can be linked with other information about case counts, transmission dynamics, health care utilization, mobility data and economic indicators to derive important insights regarding NPI impact.
The effect of BCG vaccination on COVID-19 examined by a statistical approach: no positive results from the Diamond Princess and cross-national differences previously reported by world-wide comparisons are flawed in several ways
Authors: Asahara Masakazu 
Published: April 2020

AbstractRecently, the controversial hypothesis that past BCG (Bacillus Calmette–Guérin) vaccination reduces infection or severity of COVID-19 has been proposed. The present study examined this hypothesis using statistical approaches based on the public data. Three approaches were utilized: 1) comparing the infection and mortality ratio of people on the cruise ship Diamond Princess, 2) comparing the number of mortalities among nations, and 3) comparing the maximum daily increase rate of total mortalities among nations. The result of 1) showed that there is no significant difference in infection per person onboard or mortality-infection between Japanese citizens vs. US citizens and BCG obligatory nations vs. non-BCG obligatory nations on the Diamond Princess. The result of 2) showed that the number of mortalities among nations is similar to the previous studies, but this analysis also considered the timing of COVID-19 arrival in each nation. After correcting for arrival time, previously reported effect of BCG vaccination on decreasing total mortality disappeared. This is because nations that lack BCG vaccination are concentrated in Western Europe, which is near an epicenter of COVID-19. Therefore some previous reports are now considered to be affected by this artifact; the result may have been flawed by dispersal from an epicenter. However, some results showed weakly significant differences in the number of deaths at a particular time among BCG obligatory and non-BCG nations (especially the use of Japanese BCG strain Tokyo 172). However, these results are affected by the results of three countries and the effect of BCG vaccination remains inconclusive. The result of 3) showed that the maximum daily increasing rate in death among nations showed no significant difference among BCG vaccination policies. In the present study, although some results showed statistically significant differences among BCG vaccination policies, they may be affected by the impact of various other factors, such as national infection-control policies, social distancing, behavioral changes of people, possible previous local epidemics of closely related viruses, or inter-population differences in ACE2 or other genetic polymorphism. Further research is needed to better understand the underlying cause of the observed differences in infection and mortality of the disease among nations. Nevertheless, our results show that the effect of past BCG vaccination, if any, can be masked by many other factors. Therefore, the possible effect might be relatively small. In fact, in Japan, where almost all citizens have been vaccinated, COVID-19 cases are constantly increasing. Given the importance of people’s behavior in preventing viral propagation, the spread of optimism triggered by this hypothesis would be harmful to BCG vaccination nations.