P3824Body composition and mortality from vascular or metabolic causes among 150,000 participants in the Mexico City Prospective Study
Authors: Gnatiuc L , Alegre-Diaz J , Garcilazo-Avila A , Ramirez R , Gonzales-Carballo C , Solano-Sanchez M , Chiquete E , Wade R , Clarke R , Herrington W G , Collins R , Peto R , Tapia-Conyer R , Kuri-Morales P , Emberson J 
Published: October 2019

Abstract

Background
Higher body-mass index is associated with increased mortality from vascular disease, renal disease and other metabolic causes. However, body mass reflects both fat and lean mass, which may have very different effects on risk. We investigated the individual and joint relevance of fat and lean mass to mortality from these causes, using data from the Mexico City Prospective Study.

Methods
Between 1998 and 2004, 150,000 adults from Mexico City were recruited into a prospective study and tracked for cause-specific mortality for 14 years. Fat and lean mass at recruitment were predicted using Mexican-specific anthropometric equations, validated in a subset of participants with additional bio-impedance measures. Cox regression was used to assess the relevance of fat and lean mass at recruitment to mortality from a vascular, renal, or other metabolic cause at ages 35–74 years. Analyses were adjusted for age at risk, sex, residential district, education, recreational physical activity, smoking and alcohol consumption. To avoid reverse causality, analyses excluded those with diabetes or other chronic diseases at recruitment, and deaths in the first 5 years of follow-up. Mortality rate ratios (RRs) relate to the differences per SD of the usual values of various factors or the differences between the top tenth and bottom fifth of the values.

Results
Among 112,923 participants aged 35–74 years, mean (SD) fat mass in men and women was 22.0 (6.4) kgs and 29.4 (7.8) kgs respectively, while mean (SD) lean mass was 54.9 (7.2) kgs and 39.2 (5.0) kgs respectively. In both men and women, equation-predicted fat and lean mass closely matched the bio-impedance values (all r>0.86). Both fat and lean mass were positively and approximately log-linearly associated with mortality from a vascular or metabolic cause. However, the association of lean mass with mortality was more than accounted for by the correlation of lean with fat mass. Hence, after adjustment for fat mass, lean mass was inversely associated with risk. For a given amount of fat mass, the RR for vascular/metabolic mortality comparing those in the top tenth versus bottom fifth of the predicted lean mass was 0.35 (95% CI 0.24–0.52). Conversely, for a given amount of lean mass, the RR comparing those in the top tenth versus bottom fifth of the predicted fat mass was 4.06 (3.06–5.39). The RRs associated with each SD higher fat mass (1.51, 1.40–1.63) or lean mass (0.79, 0.73–0.86) appeared to be little affected by age, sex, or levels of other confounders, and were broadly similar for the major vascular, renal, and other metabolic mortality. The height-adjusted RRs were 1.41 (1.30–1.53) for fat mass and 0.91 (0.82–1.00) for lean mass.

Conclusions
In this Mexican cohort, predicted fat and lean mass had opposing effects on vascular and other metabolic deaths, with no evidence of any thresholds throughout the ranges studied.