bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Forecasting American COVID-19 Cases and Deaths through Machine Learning
Authors: Somalwar Anaiy 
Published: August 2020

AbstractCOVID-19 has become a great national security problem for the United States and many other countries, where public policy and healthcare decisions are based on the several models for the prediction of the future deaths and cases of COVID-19. While the most commonly used models for COVID-19 include epidemiological models and Gaussian curve-fitting models, recent literature has indicated that these models could be improved by incorporating machine learning. However, within this research on potential machine learning models for COVID-19 forecasting, there has been a large emphasis on providing an array of different types of machine learning models rather than optimizing a single one. In this research, we suggest and optimize a linear machine learning model with a gradient-based optimizer for the prediction of future COVID-19 cases and deaths in the United States. We also suggest that a hybrid of a machine learning model for shorter range predictions and a Gaussian curve-fitting model or an epidemiological model for longer range predictions could greatly increase the accuracy of COVID-19 forecasting.
Functional activation changes at ultra-high field related to upper and lower limb impairments in multiple sclerosis
Authors: Strik Myrte , Shanahan Camille J. , van der Walt Anneke , Boonstra Frederique M. C. , Glarin Rebecca , Galea Mary P. , Kilpatrick Trevor J. , Geurts Jeroen J.G. , Cleary Jon O. , Schoonheim Menno M. , Kolbe Scott C. 
Published: August 2020

AbstractUpper and lower limb impairments are common in people with multiple sclerosis (pwMS), yet difficult to clinically identify in early stages of disease progression. Tasks involving complex motor control can potentially reveal more subtle deficits in early stages, and can be performed during functional MRI acquisition, to investigate underlying neural mechanisms, providing markers for early motor progression. We investigated brain activation during visually-guided force-matching of hand or foot in 28 minimally disabled pwMS and 17 healthy controls (HC) using ultra-high field 7-Tesla fMRI, allowing us to visualise sensorimotor network activity in high detail. Task activations and performance (tracking lag and error) were compared between groups, and correlations were performed. PwMS showed delayed (+124 s, p=0.002) and more erroneous (+0.15 N, p=0.001) lower limb tracking, together with higher primary motor and premotor cortex activation, and lower cerebellar activation compared to HC. No differences were seen in upper limb performance or activation. Functional activation levels of cerebellar, visual and motor areas correlated with task performance. These results demonstrate that ultra-high field fMRI during complex hand and foot tracking can identify subtle impairments in movement and brain activity, and differentiates upper and lower limb impairments in minimally disabled pwMS.
England’s Lockdown vs. Sweden’s Herd Immunity: A Comparison of the Daily New COVID-19 Cases and Related Deaths Using Comparative Interrupted Time Series Analysis
Authors: Mustafa Ali Moaath K. , Samhouri Yazan , Sabha Marwa , Alnimer Lynna 
Published: August 2020

AbstractBackgroundThere is a lack of empirical evidence that lockdowns decrease daily cases of COVID-19 and related mortality compared to herd immunity. England implemented a delayed lockdown on March 23, 2020, but Sweden did not. We aim to examine the effect of lockdown on daily COVID-19 cases and related deaths during the first 100 days post-lockdown.MethodsWe compared daily cases of COVID-19 infection and related mortality in England and Sweden before and after lockdown intervention using a comparative-interrupted time series analysis. The period included was from COVID-19 pandemic onset till June 30, 2020.ResultsThe adjusted-rate of daily COVID-19 infections was eight cases/10,000,000 person higher in England than Sweden before lockdown order (95% CI: 2-14, P=0.01). On the day of intervention (lagged lockdown), England had 693 more COVID-19 cases/10,000,000 person compared to Sweden (95% CI: 467-920, P<0.001). Compared to the pre-intervention period, the adjusted daily confirmed cases rate decreased by 19 cases/ 10,000,000 person compared to Sweden (95% CI: 13-26, P<0.001). There was a rate excess of 1.5 daily deaths/ 10,000,000 person in England compared to Sweden pre-intervention (95% CI: 1-2, P<0.001). The increased mortality rate resulted in 50 excess deaths/ 10,000,000 person related to COVID-19 in England compared to Sweden on the day of lockdown (95% CI: 30-71, P<0.001). Post-intervention, the rate of daily deaths in England decreased by two deaths/ 10,000,000 person compared to Sweden (95% CI: 1-3, P<0.001). During phases one and two of lockdown lifting in England, there was no rebound increase in daily cases or deaths compared to Sweden.ConclusionThe lockdown order implemented in England on March 23, 2020, effectively decreased the daily new cases rate and related mortality compared to Sweden. There was no short-term increase in COVID-19 cases and related-deaths after the phases one and two of the lifting of restrictions in England compared to Sweden. This study provides empirical, comparative evidence that lockdowns slow the spread of COVID-19 in communities compared to herd immunity.
Dynamical balance between the transmission, intervention of COVID-19 and economic development
Authors: Zhang Zhaowang , Lin Hualiang , Zhu Guanghu 
Published: August 2020

AbstractThe current explosive outbreak of coronavirus (COVID-19) is posing serious threats to public health and economy around the world. To clarify the coupling mechanism between this disease and economy, a new dynamical system is established. It is theoretically proved that the basic reproduction number is a nonlinear combination of parameters regarding disease transmission, intervention and economy effect, which totally determines the stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria. Further results indicate the existence of interaction and mutual restraint among the transmission, intervention and economy, in which strong coupling of COVID-19 and economy would trigger disease outbreak and form poverty trap, while adaptive isolation of at-risk population could effectively reduce morbidity at the cost of least economic loss. Our findings can offer new insights to improve the intervention strategies against COVID-19.
Age-dependent and Independent Symptoms and Comorbidities Predictive of COVID-19 Hospitalization
Authors: Huang Yingxiang , Radenkovic Dina , Perez Kevin , Nadeau Kari , Verdin Eric , Furman David 
Published: August 2020

AbstractThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)-CoV-2, continues to burden medical institutions around the world by increasing total hospitalization and Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admissions1–9 A better understanding of symptoms, comorbidities and medication used for preexisting conditions in patients with COVID-19 could help healthcare workers identify patients at increased risk of developing more severe disease10,11. Here, we have used self-reported data (symptoms, medications and comorbidities) from more than 3 million users from the COVID-19 Symptom Tracker app12 to identify previously reported and novel features predictive of patients being admitted in a hospital setting. Despite previously reported association between age and more severe disease phenotypes13–18, we found that patient’s age, sex and ethnic group were minimally predictive when compared to patient’s symptoms and comorbidities. The most important variables selected by our predictive algorithm were fever, the use of immunosuppressant medication, mobility aid, shortness of breath and fatigue. It is anticipated that early administration of preventative measures in COVID-19 positive patients (COVID+) who exhibit a high risk of hospitalization signature may prevent severe disease progression.
Estimating the epidemic growth dynamics within the first week
Authors: Fioriti Enzo , Chinnici Marta , Arbore Andrea , Sigismondi Nicola , Roselli Ivan 
Published: August 2020

AbstractInformation about the early growth of infectious outbreaks are indispensable to estimate the epidemic spreading. A large number of mathematical tools have been developed to this end, facing as much large number of different dynamic evolutions, ranging from sub-linear to super-exponential growth. Of course, the crucial point is that we do not have enough data during the initial outbreak phase to make reliable inferences. Here we propose a methodology to estimate the epidemic growth dynamics from the infected cumulative data of just a week, provided a surveillance system is available over the whole territory. The methodology, based on the Newcomb-Benford Law, is applied to Italian covid 19 case-study. Results show that it is possible to discriminate the epidemic dynamics using the first seven data points collected over fifty Italian cities. Moreover, the form of the most probable approximating function of the growth, within a six weeks epidemic scenario, is identified.
Pre-COVID-19 humoral immunity to common coronaviruses does not confer cross-protection against SARS-CoV-2
Authors: Miyara Makoto , Sterlin Delphine , Anna François , Marot Stéphane , Mathian Alexis , Atif Mo , Quentric Paul , Mohr Audrey , Claër Laetitia , Parizot Christophe , Dorgham Karim , Yssel Hans , Chazal Thibaud , Fadlallah Jehane , Haroche Julien , Benameur Neila , Boutolleau David , Burrel Sonia , Mudumba Sasi , Hockett Rick , Gunn Cary , Charneau Pierre , Calvez Vincent , Marcellin Anne-Geneviève , Amoura Zahir , Gorochov Guy 
Published: August 2020

AbstractIt is currently unknown whether acquired immunity to common alpha- and beta-coronaviruses provides cross-protection against SARS-CoV-2. In this study, we found that certain patient sera and intravenous immunoglobulins (IVIG) collected prior to the COVID-19 outbreak were cross-reactive to SARS-CoV-2 full-length Spike, S2 domain, and Nucleocapsid. However, their presence did not translate into neutralizing activity against SARS-CoV-2in vitro. Importantly, we detected serum IgG reactivity to common coronaviruses in the early sera of patients with severe COVID-19 before the appearance of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Collectively, the results of our study indicate that pre-existing immunity to common coronaviruses does not confer cross-protection against SARS-CoV-2in vivo.
Socioeconomic inequalities in prevalence and development of multimorbidity across adulthood: findings from the MRC 1946 National Survey of Health & Development
Authors: Khanolkar Amal R. , Chaturvedi Nishi , Kuan Valerie , Davis Daniel , Hughes Alun , Richards Marcus , Bann David , Patalay Praveetha 
Published: August 2020

AbstractObjectiveTo estimate multimorbidity trajectories and quantify socioeconomic inequalities based on both childhood and adulthood socioeconomic position in the risks and rates of adult multimorbidity accumulation.DesignProspective longitudinal national birth cohort study.MethodsParticipants from the 1946 National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD) who attended the age 36 assessment in 1982 and any one of the follow-up assessments at ages 43, 53, 63 & 69 (N=3,723, 51% males). Information on 18 health conditions was based on a combination of self-report, biomarkers, health records and prescribed medications. We estimated multimorbidity trajectories and delineated socioeconomic inequalities (based on childhood and adulthood social class and highest education) in multimorbidity at each age and in longitudinal trajectories.ResultsMultimorbidity increased with age from 0.7 conditions on average at 36 years to 3.7 at 69 years. Multimorbidity accumulation was non-linear, accelerating with age at the rate of 0.08 conditions/year (95% CI 0.07-0.09) at 36-43 years to 0.19 conditions/year (95% CI 0.18-0.20) at 63-69 years. At all ages, the most socio-economically disadvantaged had 1.2 to 1.4 times greater number of conditions on average compared to the most advantaged. The most socioeconomically disadvantaged by each socioeconomic indicator experienced an additional 0.39 conditions (childhood social class), 0.83 (adult social class) and 1.08 conditions (adult education) at age 69 years, independent of all other socioeconomic indicators. Adverse adulthood socioeconomic status was associated with more rapid accumulation of multimorbidity, resulting in 0.49 excess conditions in partly/unskilled compared to professional/intermediate individuals between 63-69 years. Disadvantaged childhood social class, independently of adult socio-economic position, was associated with accelerated multimorbidity trajectories from age 53 onwards.ConclusionsSocioeconomically disadvantaged individuals have both earlier onset and more rapid accumulation of multimorbidity resulting in widening inequalities into old age, with independent contributions from both childhood and adulthood socio-economic position.
Stethoscope and Non-Infrared Thermometer Disinfection among Physicians: A Cross-Sectional Study with Implications for the Control of COVID-19
Authors: Sahiledengle Biniyam , Tekalegn Yohannes , Bekele Kebebe , Tesemma Abdi , Quisido Bruce John Edward 
Published: August 2020

AbstractBackgroundStethoscopes and non-infrared thermometers are the customary medical equipment used by the physicians on a daily basis, among various patients. With the rise of potential infections in the healthcare facilities and the transmission nature of the current volantly evolving COVID-19, consistent and correct disinfections of these devices after each use should not be pardoned. This study, therefore, describes the level of stethoscope and non-infrared thermometer disinfection practices among physicians and determines its associated factors during the COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsA nationwide cross-sectional online survey was circulated using an anonymous and self-reporting questionnaire via Google form with a consent form appended to it.ResultsFour hundred twenty-two physicians participated (62.80% medical doctors, 33.65% seniors, and 3.55% residents). The proportion of stethoscope and non-Infrared thermometer disinfections after every use was 13.9% (95%CI: 10.9-17.6) and 20.4% (95%CI: 16.7-24.5), respectively. In adjusted analyses, taking COVID-19 training (Adjusted Odds Ratio [AOR]: 2.52; 95% [Confidence Interval (CI)]: 1.29-4.92) and the availability of stethoscope disinfection materials at the workplace (AOR: 3.03; 95% CI: 1.29-7.10) were significantly increased the odds of stethoscope disinfection after every use. The odds of stethoscope disinfection after every use was significantly decreased for those who reported the use of shared stethoscope (AOR: 0.34; 95% CI: 0.12-0.92). Among the physicians, disinfection after every use was significantly higher in resident physicians compared to those of general practitioners for both stethoscope (AOR: 4.61; 95%CI: 1.29-16.52) and non-Infrared thermometers (AOR: 7.10; 95%CI: 2.30-21.95).ConclusionOnly a wee share of the respondents reported that they have disinfected their stethoscopes and non-infrared thermometers after every use – possibly jeopardizing both patients and clinicians safety, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic – and these results must be sternly dealt with. Provisions of training and securing constant and available stethoscope disinfection supplies can significantly increase disinfection practices among the physicians after every use. These simple interventions could be replicated by other healthcare facilities.
The basic reproduction number can be accurately estimated within 14 days after societal lockdown: The early stage of the COVID-19 epidemic in Denmark
Authors: Valentin Jan Brink , Møller Henrik , Johnsen Søren Paaske 
Published: August 2020

AbstractObjectiveEarly identification of the basic reproduction number (BRN) is imperative to political decision making during an epidemic. In this study, we estimated the BRN 7, 14, 21 and 28 days after societal lockdown of Denmark during the early stage of the COVID-19 epidemic.MethodWe implemented the SEIR dynamical system for disease spread without vital dynamics. The BRN was modulated using a sigmoid function. Model parameters were estimated on number of admitted patients, number of patients in intensive care and cumulative number of deaths using the simulated annealing Monte Carlo algorithm. Results are presented with 95% prediction intervals (PI).ResultsWe were unable to determine any reliable estimate of the BRN at 7 days following lockdown. The BRN had stabilised at day 14 throughout day 28, with the estimate ranging from 0.95 (95% PI: 0.92-0.98) at day 7 to 0.92 (95% PI: 0.92-0.93) at day 28. We estimated the BRN prior to lockdown to be 3.32 (95% PI: 3.31-3.33). The effect of the lockdown was occurring over a period of a few days centred at March 18th (95% PI: 17th-18th) 2020.ConclusionWe believe our model provides a valuable tool for decision makers to reliably estimate the effect of a politically determined lockdown during an epidemic.
Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on ongoing health research: an ad hoc survey among investigators in Germany
Authors: Bratan Tanja , Aichinger Heike , Brkic Nicole , Rueter Jana , Apfelbacher Christian , Loss Julika 
Published: August 2020

AbstractObjectivesTo gain insights into the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on ongoing health research projects, using projects from a selected funding programme in Germany as an example.DesignOnline surveySettingLockdowns and social distancing policies impact upon clinical and public health research in various forms, especially if unrelated to COVID-19. Research institutions have reduced onsite activities, data is often collected remotely, and during the height of the crisis, clinical researchers were partially forced to abandon their projects in favour of front-line care and crisis response.Participants120 investigators of health research projects across Germany, performed between 15 and 25 May 2020.ResultsThe response rate (78%) showed that the survey generated significant interest among investigators. 85 responses were included for analysis, and the majority of investigators (93%) reported that their projects were affected by the pandemic, with many (80%) stating that data collection was not possible as planned, and they could not carry out interventions as planned (67%). Other impacts were caused by staff being unavailable, for example through child or elder care commitments or because of COVID-19 quarantine or illness. Investigators also reported that publications were delayed or not feasible at all (56%), and some experienced problems with PhD or Masters theses 18%). The majority of investigators had mitigation strategies in place such as adjustment of data collection methods using digital tools (46%) or of project implementation in general (46%), others made changes in research design or research questions (27%).ConclusionsThe COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted upon health research projects. The main challenge is now to mitigate negative effects and to improve long-term resilience in health research. The pandemic has also acted as a driver of innovation and change, for example by accelerating the use of digital methods.Strengths and limitations of this studyTo our knowledge, this is the first study investigating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on non COVID-19 health research projects, mitigation strategies employed by investigators and needs for support.The sample is representative of the projects from the “Healthy - for a lifetime” funding programme in Germany, which includes different types of health research projects and involves different population groups.We were not able to clearly distinguish the effects on different types of projects (clinical studies, observational studies, secondary data analyses etc.), because a small number of investigators led more than one project and were not asked to report on each project individually.The survey presents a snapshot of the situation in May 2020. To assess effects more widely as well as long-term impacts on projects, the survey would need to be repeated.
Modelling Suggests Limited Change in the Reproduction Number from Reopening Norwegian Kindergartens and Schools During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Authors: Rypdal Martin , Rypdal Veronika , Jakobsen Per , Ytterstad Elinor , Løvsletten Ola , Klingenberg Claus , Rypdal Kristoffer 
Published: August 2020

AbstractBackgroundTo suppress the COVID-19 outbreak, the Norwegian government closed all schools on March 13, 2020. The kindergartens reopened on April 20, and the schools on April 27 and May 11 of 2020. The effect of these measures is largely unknown since the role of children in the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is still unclear. There are only a few studies of school closures as a separate intervention to other social distancing measures, and little research exists on the effect of school opening during a pandemic.ObjectiveThis study aimed to model the effect of opening kindergartens and the schools in Norway in terms of a change in the reproduction number (R). A secondary objective was to assess if we can use the estimated R after school openings to infer the rates of transmission between children in schools.MethodsWe used an individual-based model (IBM) to assess the reopening of kindergartens and schools in two Norwegian cities, Oslo, the Norwegian capital, with a population of approximately 680 000, and Tromsø, which is the largest city in Northern Norway, with a population of approximately 75 000. The model uses demographic information and detailed data about the schools in both cities. We carried out an ensemble study to obtain robust results in spite of the considerable uncertainty that remains about the transmission of SARS-CoV-2.ResultsWe found that reopening of Norwegian kindergartens and schools are associated with a change in R of 0.10 (95%CI 0.04-0.16) and 0.14 (95%CI 0.01-0.25) in the two cities under investigation if the in-school transmission rates for the SARS-CoV-2 virus are equal to what Ferguson et al. have previously estimated for influenza pandemics [1].ConclusionWe found only a limited effect of reopening schools on the reproduction number, and we expect the same to hold true in other countries where nonpharmaceutical interventions have suppressed the pandemic. Consequently, current R-estimates are insufficiently accurate for determining the transmission rates in schools. For countries that have not opened schools yet, planned interventions, such as the opening of selected schools, can be useful to infer general knowledge about children-to-children transmission of SARS-CoV-2.