Investigating the Prevalence of Reactive Online Searching in the COVID-19 Pandemic: Infoveillance Study (Preprint)
Authors: Badell-Grau Rafael A , Cuff Jordan Patrick , Kelly Brendan P , Waller-Evans Helen , Lloyd-Evans Emyr 
Published: May 2020

BACKGROUND

The ongoing pandemic has placed an unprecedented strain on global society, health care, governments, and mass media. Public dissemination of government policies, medical interventions, and misinformation has been remarkably rapid and largely unregulated during the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in increased misinterpretations, miscommunication, and public panic. Being the first full-scale global pandemic of the digital age, COVID-19 has presented novel challenges pertinent to government advice, the spread of news and misinformation, and the trade-off between the accessibility of science and the premature public use of unproven medical interventions.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to assess the use of internet search terms relating to COVID-19 information and misinformation during the global pandemic, identify which were most used in six affected countries, investigate any temporal trends and the likely propagators of key search terms, and determine any correlation between the <i>per capita</i> cases and deaths with the adoption of these search terms in each of the six countries.

METHODS

This study uses relative search volume data extracted from Google Trends for search terms linked to the COVID-19 pandemic alongside <i>per capita</i> case and mortality data extracted from the European Open Data Portal to identify the temporal dynamics of the spread of news and misinformation during the global pandemic in six affected countries (Australia, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States). A correlation analysis was carried out to ascertain any correlation between the temporal trends of search term use and the rise of <i>per capita</i> mortality and disease cases.

RESULTS

Of the selected search terms, most were searched immediately following promotion by governments, public figures, or viral circulation of information, but also in relation to the publication of scientific resources, which were sometimes misinterpreted before further dissemination. Strong correlations were identified between the volume of these COVID-19–related search terms (overall mean Spearman rho 0.753, SD 0.158), and <i>per capita</i> mortality (mean <i>per capita</i> deaths Spearman rho 0.690, SD 0.168) and cases (mean <i>per capita</i> cases Spearman rho 0.800, SD 0.112).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings illustrate the increased rate and volume of the public consumption of novel information during a global health care crisis. The positive correlation between mortality and online searching, particularly in countries with lower COVID-19 testing rates, may demonstrate the imperative to safeguard official communications and dispel misinformation in these countries. Online news, government briefings, and social media provide a powerful tool for the dissemination of important information to the public during pandemics, but their misuse and the presentation of misrepresented medical information should be monitored, minimized, and addressed to safeguard public safety. Ultimately, governments, public health authorities, and scientists have a moral imperative to safeguard the truth and maintain an accessible discourse with the public to limit fear.