bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
A comparison of machine learning models for predicting rehospitalisation and death after a first hospitalisation with heart failure
Authors: Jones Y , Hillen N , Friday J , Pellicori P , Kean S , Murphy C , Cleland J 
Published: November 2020

Abstract

Background
Many machine learning models exist, including Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Random Forest algorithm (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Gradient Boosted Machine (GBM), but their value for predicting outcome in patients with heart failure has not been compared.

Aim
To predict rehospitalisation (all-cause) and death (all-cause) at 1-, 3- and 12 months after discharge from a first hospitalisation for heart failure using four machine learning models.

Methods
The National Health Service Greater Glasgow and Clyde Health Board serves a population of ∼1.1 million. We obtained de-identified administrative data, including investigations, diagnosis and prescriptions, linked to hospital admissions and deaths for anyone with a diagnosis of vascular disease or heart failure or prescribed loop diuretics, statins or neuro-endocrine antagonists at any time between 1st January 2010 and 1st June 2018. Patients who were under 18 or had no prior hospitalisation for heart failure were excluded. Four ML algorithms using 46 variables were applied.

Results
Of 360,000 people who met the above criteria between 2010–2018, 6,372 had a hospitalisation for heart failure prior to 1st January 2010 and 8,304 had a first hospitalisation for heart failure thereafter. Between 2010 and 2018 there were 3,086 re-hospitalisations over 24 hours and 3,706 patients died, with 5,070 patients experiencing the composite outcome.
GBM and RF consistently outperformed MLP and SVM when comparing AUC, sensitivity and specificity combined, with GBM performing best in all scenarios. Since GBM and RF are both tree-based models, and with SVM and MLP regularly reporting very poor sensitivity or specificity despite a similar AUC to the others, this suggests that SVM and MLP may be suffering from overfitting and might perform better in larger data-sets.
Both GBM and RF work by ordering variables, so the final model can be used to determine the most important prediction variables. Age, number of times a blood sample was taken out of hospital, length of stay, social deprivation index and haemoglobin concentration consistently ranked amongst the most important variables. Models predicted all 1-month events better than later events.

Conclusions
Some, but not all, ML models applied to this data-set predicted rehospitalisation and death with great accuracy for up to 3 months after a first hospitalisation for heart failure. The models identified several important prognostic variables that are currently seldom collected in clinical research registries but perhaps should be.

Funding Acknowledgement
Type of funding source: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): Medical Research Council
Biomarkers associated with poor prognosis in patients with end-stage heart failure
Authors: Szczurek W , Gasior M , Skrzypek M , Romuk E , Szygula Jurkiewicz B 
Published: November 2020

Abstract

Background
Despite advances in the treatment, end-stage heart failure (HF) is a disease with a severe prognosis, showing an annual mortality rate of 30 to 50%. Due to a poor prognosis in this population of patients, it is necessary to accurately stratify the risk of death, including simple and effective prognostic markers.

Objective
This study aimed to determine biomarkers associated with mortality in patients with end-stage HF.

Material and methods
The study was a prospective analysis of optimally treated patients with end-stage HF, who were hospitalised at the Cardiology Department between 2016 and 2018. At the time of enrollment to the study routine laboratory tests, cardiopulmonary exercise tests, echocardiography and right heart catheterization were performed in all patients. Human Interleukin 33 (IL-33) and IL-1 Receptor Like 1 (IL1RL1) were measured by sandwich enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) with the commercially available kit (Human Il-33 and IL1RL1 ELISA kit, SunRedBio Technology Co, Ltd, Shanghai, China). Plasma concentration of N-terminal brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) was measured using a commercially available kit (Human NTproBNP ELISA kit, Roche Diagnostics, Mannheim, Germany). The endpoint was all-cause mortality during a one-year follow-up. The Medical University of Silesia's local Institutional Review Board approved the study protocol, and all patients provided informed consent.

Results
The final study group consisted of 282 patients (87.6% males, median age 57.0 years). One-year mortality rate in the analysed population was 28%. In a multivariate analysis, independent risk factors of death included NT-proBNP [Hazard Ratio (HR) 1.056 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.024–1.089); P&lt;0.001], sodium [HR 0.877 (95% CI: 0.815–0.944); p&lt;0.001], IL33 [HR 0.977 (95% CI: 0.965- 0.989); p&lt;0.001] and IL1RL1 [HR 1.015 (95% CI: 1.008–1.023); p&lt;0.001) serum levels.

Conclusions
Our study showed that lower sodium and IL-33 levels, as well as higher NT-proBNP and IL1RL1 levels are associated with an increased risk of death in patients with end-stage HF during a one-year follow-up.

Funding Acknowledgement
Type of funding source: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): Medical University of SIlesia, Katowice, Poland
External validation of an electrocardiography artificial intelligence-generated algorithm to detect left ventricular systolic function in a general cardiac clinic in Uganda
Authors: Mondo C.K , Attia Z.I , Benavente E.D , Friedman P , Noseworthy P , Kapa P , Ingabire P , Semanda S , Perel P , Lopez-Jimenez F 
Published: November 2020

Abstract

Background
Left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Although there are effective treatments for patients with LVSD to prevent mortality, heart failure and to improve symptoms, many patients remain undetected and untreated. We have recently derived a deep learning algorithm to detect LVSD using the electrocardiogram (ECG) which could have an important screening role, particularly in limited resources settings. We evaluated the accuracy of this algorithm for the first time in Africa in a sample of subjects attending a cardiology clinic.

Methods
We conducted a retrospective study in a general cardiac clinic in Uganda. Consecutive patients ≥18 years who had a digital ECG and echocardiogram done within two days of each other were included. We excluded patients with pacemakers or missing information regarding left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Routine 10-second, twelve-lead surface rest ECG were performed using an Edan PC ECG Model SE-1515, Hamburg, Germany. The probability of LVSD was estimated with the Mayo Clinic artificial intelligence (AI) ECG algorithm. LVEF was calculated by the MMode (Teichholz method) using a Philips Ultrasound system, HD7XE, Bothel, Washington, USA. LVSD was defined as a LVEF≤35%. We assessed the overall diagnostic performance of the algorithm to identify LVSD in this population with the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC), and estimated sensitivity, specificity and accuracy using a pre-specified cut-off based on the probability for LVSD generated by the algorithm. We conducted secondary analyses using different LVEF cutoff values.

Results
We included 634 subjects, 32% (200) of whom had hypertension and 12% (77) clinical heart failure. Mean age was 57±18.8 years, 58% were women and the overall prevalence of LVSD was 4%. The AI-ECG had an AUC of 0.866 (see figure below), sensitivity 73.08%, specificity 91.10%, negative predictive value 98.75%, positive predictive value 26.03% and an accuracy of 90.96% using the original threshold. Using the optimal cutoff based on the AUCs, the sensitivity was 80.77% and specificity was 81.05% with a negative predictive value of 98.99%. The ROC for the detection of LVEF of 40% or below was 0.821.

Conclusion
The Mayo AI-ECG algorithm demonstrated good accuracy, sensitivity and specificity to detect LVSD in patients seen in a clinical setting in Uganda. This tool may facilitate the identification of people at a high risk for LVSD in settings with low resources.
ROC

Funding Acknowledgement
Type of funding source: None
Left atrial remodeling in heart failure: coexistence and additive prognostic power of atrial dilation and dysfunction
Authors: Rossi A , Carluccio E , Cameli M , Inciardi R , Mandoli G.E , D'Agostino A , Biagioli P , Pugliese N.R , Pastore M.C , Maffeis C , Mengoni A , Dini F.L 
Published: November 2020

Abstract

Background
Heart failure (HF) is associated with volumetric and functional changes of left atrium (LA).

Purpose
It is still unclear whether the two atrial abnormalities necessarily coexist and if they have additive prognostic implications.

Methods
690 patients with HF due to reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) formed the study population. Each patients underwent comprehensive echocardiographic evaluation; atrial function was assessed by means of strain analysis during reservoir (PALS). End-point of the study was overall survival free of hospitalization.

Results
Patients were divided in 4 groups according to left atrial size (34 ml/mq) and function (PALS 20%). 64 patients (10%) were characterized by completely normal left atrium (group 1), 150 (25%) by dilated LA by normal PALS (group 2), 130 (20%) by normal LA volume but abnormal PALS (group 3) and 200 patients with dilated LA and decreased PALS (group 4). Clinical and echocardiographic characteristics of the groups are presented in the table. Decreased PALS was associated with worse survival both in patients with normal and abnormal LA volume (p&lt;0.0001 for each group).

Conclusions
Increased volume and decreased function of LA frequently but not necessarily coexist. LA functional impairment affects prognosis independently of LA volume.

Funding Acknowledgement
Type of funding source: None
Association between self-care and prognosis in 1123 patients with chronic heart failure
Authors: Calero E , Hidalgo E , Marin R , Rosenfeld L , Fernandez I , Garay A , Alcoberro L , Jimenez S , Yun S , Guerrero C , Moliner P , Delso C , Alcober L , Enjuanes C , Comin-Colet J 
Published: November 2020

Abstract

Background
Self-care is a crucial factor in the education of patients with heart failure (HF) and directly impacts in the progression of the disease. However, little is published about its major clinical implications as admission or mortality in patients with HF.

Aims and methods
The aim of the study was to analyze time to admission due to acute heart failure and mortality associated with poor self-care in patients with chronic HF.
We prospectively recruited consecutive patients with stable chronic HF referred to a nurse-led HF programme. Selfcare was evaluated at baseline with the 9 item European Heart Failure Self-Care Behavior Scale. Scores were standardized and reversed from 0 (worst selfcare) to 100 (better self care). For the purpose of this study we analyzed the associations of worse self-care (defined as scores below the lower tertile of the scale) with demographic, disease-related (clinical) and psychosocial factors in all patients at baseline.

Results
We included 1123 patients, mean age 72±11, 639 (60%) were male, mean LVEF 45±17 and 454 (40,4%) were in NYHA class III or IV. Mean score of the 9-item ESCBE was 69±28. Score below 55 (lower tertile) defined impaired selfcare behaviour.
Those patients with worse self-care had more ischaemic heart disease, more COPD, and they achieved less distance in the 6 minute walking test. Regarding psychosocial items patients in lower tertile of self-care needed a caregiver more frequently, they present more cognitive impairment, depressive symptoms and worse score in terms of health self-perception.
Multivariate Cox Models showed that a score below 55 points in 9-item ESCBE was independently associated with higher readmission due to acute heart failure [HR 1.26 (1.02–1.57), p value=0.034] and with mortality [HR 1.24 CI95% (1.02–1.50), p value=0.028]

Conclusion
Poor self-care measured with the modified 9-item ESCBE was associated with higher risk of admission due to acute decompensation and higher risk of mortality in patients with chronic heart failure.
These results highlight the importance of assessing self-care and provide measures to improve them.

Funding Acknowledgement
Type of funding source: Public hospital(s). Main funding source(s): Hospital Univesitario de Bellvitge
Cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin in chronic heart failure: an analysis from the Australian healthcare perspective
Authors: Savira F , Wang B.H , Kompa A.R , Ademi Z , Owen A , Tonkin A , Zoungas S , Liew D , Zomer E 
Published: November 2020

Abstract

Background
The Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in Heart Failure (DAPA-HF) trial demonstrated that dapagliflozin reduced heart failure hospitalisations and mortality in patients with established heart failure, regardless of diabetic status.

Purpose
To assess the cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin in addition to standard care versus standard care alone in patients with chronic heart failure, from the perspective of the Australian public healthcare system.

Methods
A Markov model populated with 1000 hypothetical individuals was constructed based on the DAPA-HF trial to assess the clinical outcomes and costs of patients with established heart failure and reduced ejection fraction over a lifetime time horizon. The model consisted of three health states: “Alive and event-free”, “Alive after non-fatal hospitalisation for heart failure” or “Dead”. Costs and utilities were estimated from published sources. Outcomes of interest were the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) in terms of cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained and cost per year of life saved (YoLS). All outcomes were discounted at a rate of 5% annually.

Results
Over a lifetime analysis, addition of dapagliflozin to standard care in patients with chronic heart failure prevented 88 acute heart failure hospitalisations (including readmission), and saved 416 (discounted) years of life and 288 (discounted) QALYs, at an additional cost of A$3,692,440 or €2,263,204 (discounted). This resulted in ICERs of A$8,875 (€5,439) per YoLS and A$12,482 (€7,650) per QALY gained, well below the Australian arbitrary willingness-to-pay threshold of A$50,000 (€30,645).

Conclusion
From the Australian public healthcare perspective, dapagliflozin is cost-effective when used as an adjunct therapy to standard care compared to standard care alone for the treatment of chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction.

Funding Acknowledgement
Type of funding source: None
Nanoparticles loaded with hepatic growth factor and insulin-like growth factor-1 improve left ventricular repair in a porcine model of myocardial Ischemia reperfusion injury
Authors: Wu M , Claus P , De Buck S , Veltman D , Gillijns H , Holemans P , Pokreisz P , Caluwe E , Colino E , Cohen S , Prosper F , Pelacho B , Janssens S 
Published: November 2020

Abstract

Introduction
Nanomedicine offers great potential for treatment of cardiovascular disease. We tested whether intramyocardial (IM) injection of pro-angiogenic hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) and anti-apoptotic, pro-myogenic insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) encapsulated in Alginate-Sulfate nanoparticles (AlgS-NP) improves left ventricular (LV) functional recovery in a porcine ischemia-reperfusion (I/R) model.

Methods
Myocardial infarction (MI) was induced by 75min balloon occlusion of the mid-LAD followed by reperfusion. After 1w, pigs (n=12) with marked LV dysfunction (EF&lt;45%) were randomized to fusion imaging-guided IM injections of 8 mg Cy5-labelled AlgS-NP loaded with 200μg HGF and IGF-1 (GF) or with phosphate-buffered saline (CON) using the MYOSTAR injection catheter. AlgS-NP retention in the heart was determined by measuring Cy5 levels in peripheral blood. At 8w, treatment effect was evaluated using cardiac magnetic resonance imaging and coronary flow reserve (CFR) measurements, and further assessed using sirius red staining to measure myocardial fibrosis.

Results
At 1w after MI, LV ejection frqction (LVEF) was 37±5% (range 27–45%) and infarct size (IS)/LV mass 24±6% (range 19–38%). Myocardial retention of AlgS-NP was comparable between 2 groups (maximal systemic leakage after IM injection: 9% CON vs 20% GF, P=0.25). After 8 w, IS/LV mass decreased by one third in GF-treated pigs compared with 14% in CON (P=0.03, Fig. A) and was associated with a trend towards improvement in CFR (P=0.05, Fig. B). LVEF significantly increased in GF-treated pigs (6±2% vs. −1±1%, P=0.02, Fig. C), which was attributable to a greater reduction in end-systolic volume. The improvement in LVEF was also consistent with significant reduction of fibrosis (P=0.01, Fig. D) in the peri-infarct zone (PI).

Conclusions
Intramyocardial injection of AlgS-nanoparticle-encapsulated HGF and IGF-1 to the ischemic myocardium significantly improves LV repair, and offers the prospect of innovative treatment for patients with refractory ischemic heart disease.

Funding Acknowledgement
Type of funding source: Public grant(s) – EU funding. Main funding source(s): EuroNanoMed, Horizon 2020
PETCO2 gradient: a novel prognostic parameter in cardiopulmonary exercise testing
Authors: Poveda Pinedo I.D , Marco Clement I , Gonzalez O , Ponz I , Iniesta A.M , Pena L , Rodriguez M.J , Hernandez M.D , Arranz H , Araujo A , Marin M , Espinosa S , Dalmau R , Castro A , Lopez Sendon J.L 
Published: November 2020

Abstract

Background
Previous parameters such as peak VO2, VE/VCO2 slope and OUES have been described to be prognostic in heart failure (HF). The aim of this study was to identify further prognostic factors of cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) in HF patients.

Methods
A retrospective analysis of HF patients who underwent CPET from January to November 2019 in a single centre was performed. PETCO2 gradient was defined by the difference between final PETCO2 and baseline PETCO2. HF events were defined as decompensated HF requiring hospital admission or IV diuretics, or decompensated HF resulting in death.

Results
A total of 64 HF patients were assessed by CPET, HF events occurred in 8 (12.5%) patients. Baseline characteristics are shown in table 1. Patients having HF events had a negative PETCO2 gradient while patients not having events showed a positive PETCO2 gradient (−1.5 [IQR −4.8, 2.3] vs 3 [IQR 1, 5] mmHg; p=0.004). A multivariate Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis revealed that PETCO2 gradient was an independent predictor of HF events (HR 0.74, 95% CI [0.61–0.89]; p=0.002). Kaplan-Meier curves showed a significantly higher incidence of HF events in patients having negative gradients, p=0.002 (figure 1).

Conclusion
PETCO2 gradient was demonstrated to be a prognostic parameter of CPET in HF patients in our study. Patients having negative gradients had worse outcomes by having more HF events.
Time to first event, decompensated heart

Funding Acknowledgement
Type of funding source: None
His-bundle pacing in CHF-patients with narrow QRS and chronic AF – an upgrade from single-chamber to dual-chamber ICD
Authors: Ciesielski A , Slawuta A , Zabek A , Boczar K , Malecka B , Hiczkiewicz J , Gajek J 
Published: November 2020

Abstract

A single-chamber ICD is a standard method for primary SCD prophylaxis. In patients with chronic atrial fibrillation it does not contribute to the regularization of heart rate, which is crucial for proper treatment. Moreover, to avoid the deleterious effect of right ventricular pacing only minority of the patients with single chamber ICD get the appropriate, recommended dose of beta-blockers.
The aim of our study was to assess the efficacy of direct His-bundle pacing in a population of patients with congestive heart failure and chronic atrial fibrillation using upgrade from single chamber to dual-chamber ICD and atrial channel to perform the His-bundle pacing

Methods
The study population included 39 patients (37 men, 2 women) aged 67.2±9.3 years, with CHF and chronic AF implanted primarily with single chamber ICD with established pharmacotherapy and stable clinical status.

Results
The echocardiography measurements at baseline and during follow-up were presented in the table:
During short period (3–6 months) of follow-up the mean values of EF and LV dimensions significantly improved. This was also accompanied by functional status improvement.

Conclusions
His-bundle-based pacing in CHF-chronic AF patients contributes to significant echocardiographic and clinical improvement. Standard single-chamber ICD implantation in CHF-chronic AF patients yields only SCD prevention without influence on remodeling process. The physiological pacing contributes to better pharmacotherapy.

Funding Acknowledgement
Type of funding source: None
LIVE procedure for ischemic heart failure: the evolution of an unique technique
Authors: Neves P , Pillay T , Van Bladel K , Annest L 
Published: November 2020

Abstract

Background
Ischemic cardiomyopathy is the leading cause of heart failure. In patients with left ventricular (LV) dilatation, low ejection fraction, and transmural scar in an anteroseptal distribution, surgical ventricular reconstruction (SVR) is a treatment option. However, SVR is an invasive procedure which often cannot be offered to patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy due to other comorbidities. Less Invasive Ventricular Enhancement (LIVE) technique is a unique intervention to exclude scarred myocardium, improving symptoms and quality of life.

Methods
LIVE procedure has evolved from open sternotomy to a hybrid procedure done with right internal jugular vein access and a left minithoracotomy. LV shape and size is restored without extracorporeal circulation by plication of the scarred myocardium. This is achieved by implantation of a series of internal and external microanchors brought together over a poly-ether-ether-ketone (PEEK) tether to make a longitudinal approximation between the LV free wall and the anterior septum. Internal anchors are deployed by a transcatheter technique, through the right internal jugular vein, on the right side of the ventricular septum.

Results
Between July 2018 and January 2020, 47 patients (84.4% men; mean age 61±12.5 years) were submitted to the LIVE procedure in 16 Institutions in Europe, North America and Asia. Procedural success was 100%. There was no intra-hospital mortality. A mean of 2.3 anchor pairs (median 2) were used to reshape the LV. Echocardiographic data showed an increase in LV ejection fraction (EF) from 31.4±9.2% to 40.0±12.4% (change +29.8%, p&lt;0.001) and LV end-systolic volume index (LVESVI) reduction from 66.6±29.3 ml/m2 to 40.7±21.5 ml/m2 (change −38%, p&lt;0.001) and LV end-diastolic volume index (LVEDVI) reduction from 92.8±39.2 ml/m2 to 60.6±25.9 ml/m2 (change −33.2%, p=0.001) after the procedure. Sternotomy conversion was needed in one patient due to right ventricular perforation. New onset tricuspid valve regurgitation was observed in one patient. There was no case of ventricular septal defect. In the mean follow-up period of 9.8 months, NYHA class improved a median of 1 grade and there was no late mortality.

Conclusion
Hybrid LV reshaping and volume reduction has proven to be a useful option for patients with symptomatic heart failure after left anterior descending territory myocardial infarction. These results from the latest iteration of the technique show that this approach is safe and has a significant short and mid-term impact on improving EF and reduction in LV.
LIVE procedure

Funding Acknowledgement
Type of funding source: None