bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Using ensemble reforecasts to generate flood thresholds for improved global flood forecasting
Authors: Zsoter Ervin , Prudhomme Christel , Stephens Elisabeth , Pappenberger Florian , Cloke Hannah 
Published: August 2020

AbstractGlobal flood forecasting systems rely on predefining flood thresholds to highlight potential upcoming flood events. Existing methods for flood threshold definition are often based on reanalysis datasets using a single threshold across all forecast lead times, such as in the Global Flood Awareness System. This leads to inconsistencies between how the extreme flood events are represented in the flood thresholds and the ensemble forecasts. This paper explores the potential benefits of using river flow ensemble reforecasts to generate flood thresholds that can deliver improved reliability and skill, increasing the confidence in the forecasts for humanitarian and civil protection partners. The choice of dataset and methods used to sample annual maxima in the threshold computation, both for reanalysis and reforecast, is analysed in terms of threshold magnitude, forecast reliability, and skill for different flood severity levels and lead times. The variability of threshold magnitudes, when estimated from the different annual maxima samples, can be extremely large, as can the subsequent impact on forecast skill. Reanalysis‐based thresholds should only be used for the first few days, after which ensemble‐reforecast‐based thresholds, that vary with forecast lead time and can account for the forecast bias trends, provide more reliable and skilful flood forecasts.
Examining the impact of COVID‐19 in ethnically diverse families with young children with intellectual and developmental disabilities
Authors: Neece C. , McIntyre L. L. , Fenning R. 
Published: August 2020

AbstractBackgroundThe COVID‐19 pandemic introduced challenges to families with young children with developmental delays. Beyond the widespread concerns surrounding illness, loss of employment and social isolation, caregivers are responsible for overseeing their children's educational and therapeutic programmes at home often without the much needed support of professionals.MethodThe present study sought to examine the impact of COVID‐19 in 77 ethnically, linguistically and socioeconomically diverse families with young children with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDDs) in California and Oregon, who were participating in larger intervention studies. Parents responded to five interview questions about the impact of the pandemic, services for their child, silver linings or positive aspects, coping and their concerns about the long‐term impact of the pandemic.ResultsParents reported that their biggest challenge was being at home caring for their children with the loss of many essential services. Parents reported some positive aspects of the pandemic, especially being together as a family. Although there were positive aspects of the situation, many parents expressed concern about long‐term impacts of the pandemic on their children's development, given the loss of services, education and social engagement opportunities.ConclusionResults suggest that parents of young children with IDD report significant challenges at home during the pandemic. Professional support, especially during the reopening phases, will be critical to support family well‐being and child developmental outcomes.
Phosphorylation of Syntaxin‐1a by casein kinase 2α regulates pre‐synaptic vesicle exocytosis from the reserve pool
Authors: Shi Vanilla (Hua) , Craig Tim J. , Bishop Paul , Nakamura Yasuko , Rocca Dan , Wilkinson Kevin A. , Henley Jeremy M. 
Published: August 2020

AbstractThe t‐soluble NSF‐attachment protein receptor protein Syntaxin‐1a (Stx‐1a) is abundantly expressed at pre‐synaptic terminals where it plays a critical role in the exocytosis of neurotransmitter‐containing synaptic vesicles. Stx‐1a is phosphorylated by Casein kinase 2α (CK2α) at Ser14, which has been proposed to regulate the interaction of Stx‐1a and Munc‐18 to control of synaptic vesicle priming. However, the role of CK2α in synaptic vesicle dynamics remains unclear. Here, we show that CK2α over‐expression reduces evoked synaptic vesicle release. Furthermore, shRNA‐mediated knockdown of CK2α in primary hippocampal neurons strongly enhanced vesicle exocytosis from the reserve pool, with no effect on the readily releasable pool of primed vesicles. In neurons in which endogenous Stx‐1a was knocked down and replaced with a CK2α phosphorylation‐deficient mutant, Stx‐1a(D17A), vesicle exocytosis was also increased. These results reveal a previously unsuspected role of CK2α phosphorylation in specifically regulating the reserve synaptic vesicle pool, without changing the kinetics of release from the readily releasable pool.
image
An evaluation of electrocoagulation and thermal diffusion following radiofrequency microneedling using an in vivo porcine skin model
Authors: Wootten Shaun , Zawacki Zosia E. , Rheins Lawrence , Meschter Carol , Draelos Zoe Diana 
Published: August 2020

AbstractBackgroundFew studies exist that examined the role of radiofrequency microneedling (RFMN) in skin electrocoagulation. This research utilized a porcine model to understand bipolar dermal delivery from an RFMN device.AimsThe objective of this study was to elucidate and compare the dermal thermal effects of a RFMN device producing 1 and 2 MHz signal amplitudes, with respective voltage and current gradients, utilizing noninsulated and insulated needles by examining the histologic effects on porcine skin.MethodsTwo separate animal studies were conducted to evaluate the electrocoagulation and thermal diffusion effects using the RFMN device. The electrocoagulation effects were assessed histologically using hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) staining, and heating effects were assessed through thermal imaging.ResultsHistology results of the thermal injury induced by insulated needles demonstrated that 2 MHz resulted in a narrow and concentrated coagulation zone as compared to 1 MHz. Further, the 1 MHz insulated needle resulted in ovular shaped tissue coagulation as compared to 2 MHz tissue coagulation that was columnar. Finally, full thermal diffusion occurs seconds after the set RF conduction time.ConclusionThe findings showed that 1 MHz insulated needle produces larger coagulations with an increase in power level, the 1 MHz noninsulated array was comparable to the 2 MHz insulated array with similar histologic features, and heat dissipates seconds after the set conduction time.
Nurses’ experiences regarding shift patterns in isolation wards during the COVID‐19 pandemic in China: A qualitative study
Authors: Gao Xiaoyue , Jiang Lili , Hu Yinqing , Li Li , Hou Lili 
Published: August 2020

AbstractAim and objectiveTo explore nurses’ experiences regarding shift patterns while providing front‐line care for COVID‐19 patients in isolation wards of hospitals in Shanghai and Wuhan during the novel coronavirus pandemic. Our findings will help to optimise shift work scheduling, use the existing nursing workforce more efficiently and improve nursing quality.BackgroundNurses are one of the main professionals fighting against COVID‐19. Providing care for COVID‐19 patients is challenging. In isolation wards, the workload has increased, and the workflow and shift patterns are completely different from the usual. More importantly, there is a shortage of nurses. Therefore, it is essential and urgent to arrange nurses’ shifts correctly and use the existing workforce resources efficiently.DesignA qualitative descriptive study of 14 nurses in Chinese hospitals was conducted.MethodsSemi‐structured interviews were used based on the phenomenological research method; data were analysed using Colaizzi's method of data analysis. This study aligns with the COREQ checklist.ResultsFour themes were extracted: assess the competency of nurses to assign nursing work scientifically and reasonably, reorganise nursing workflow to optimise shift patterns, communicate between managers and front‐line nurses to humanise shift patterns, and nurses’ various feelings and views on shift patterns.ConclusionIt is necessary to arrange shift patterns scientifically and allocate workforce rationally to optimise nursing workforce allocation, reduce nurses’ workload, improve nursing quality and promote physical and mental health among nurses during the COVID‐19 pandemic.Relevance to clinical practiceThis study emphasised nurses’ experiences on shift patterns in isolation wards, providing useful information to manage shift patterns. Nursing managers should arrange shifts scientifically, allocate nursing workforce rationally, formulate emergency plans and establish emergency response rosters during the COVID‐19 pandemic.
Looking under the tinfoil hat: Clarifying the personological and psychopathological correlates of conspiracy beliefs
Authors: Bowes Shauna M. , Costello Thomas H. , Ma Winkie , Lilienfeld Scott O. 
Published: August 2020

AbstractObjectiveWe sought to replicate and extend provisional research on the personological correlates of conspiracy beliefs by examining their associations with abnormal‐ and normal‐range personality domain‐level traits and, for the first time, lower‐order personality facets; we also examined internalizing symptoms.MethodThe study comprised four samples of community and student participants (Ntotal = 1,927), and examined the cross‐sectional relations between self‐reported conspiratorial ideation and measures of (a) the six‐factor model of general personality, (b) intellectual humility (IH), (c) traits relevant to certain personality disorder features (narcissism, psychopathy, disinhibition), and (d) internalizing symptoms (depression, anxiety, anger).ResultsAgreeableness and conscientiousness were significant, albeit modest, negative correlates of conspiracy beliefs, although other general personality dimensions tended to manifest negligible associations. Significant associations between lower‐order personality facets and conspiracy beliefs, not evident at the domain level, emerged. Indices of IH were significant negative correlates. Conspiracy beliefs were also associated with a range of personality disorder features and internalizing symptoms.ConclusionsOur results suggest that the nonclinical individual prone to conspiratorial ideation is somewhat likely to display a complex mixture of traits including distress, immodesty, impulsivity, and negative affect. Future research should investigate potential multiplicative relations among personological variables in predicting conspiracy beliefs.
The political economy of enforcer liability for wrongful police stops
Authors: Friehe Tim , Mungan Murat C. 
Published: August 2020

AbstractThis article questions whether excessive policing practices can persist in an environment where law enforcement policies are subject to political pressures. Specifically, it considers a setting where the police decide whether to conduct stops based on the suspiciousness of a person's behavior and the potential liability for conducting a wrongful stop. We establish that the liability level that results in a voting equilibrium is smaller than optimal, and consequently, that excessive policing practices emerge in equilibrium.
A multi‐centre study of trends in hepatitis B virus‐related hepatocellular carcinoma risk over time during long‐term entecavir therapy
Authors: Kim Seung Up , Chon Yong Eun , Seo Yeon Seok , Lee Hye Won , Lee Han Ah , Kim Mi Na , Min In Kyung , Park Jun Yong , Kim Do Young , Ahn Sang Hoon , Tak Won Young , Kim Beom Kyung , Park Soo Young 
Published: August 2020

AbstractThe risk of developing hepatitis B virus (HBV)‐related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is reduced by antiviral therapy. Here, we evaluated the chronological trends in HCC development risk starting in 2007, when entecavir reimbursement was first initiated in South Korea. Treatment‐naïve patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) receiving entecavir 0.5 mg/d were stratified into three groups according to entecavir start time: early (2007‐2010), middle (2011‐2012) and late (2013‐2014) cohorts Among 2442 patients, cumulative probabilities of developing HCC after 1, 3 and 5 years were, respectively, 1.7%, 5.1%, and 8.2% (early cohort; n = 672); 1.5%, 5.1% and 8.9% (middle cohort; n = 757); and 1.2%, 5.3% and 10.6% (late cohort; n = 1013; P > .05 between each pair). Older age, male, positive hepatitis B e antigen, liver cirrhosis, Child‐Pugh class B (vs A) and lower platelet count significantly predicted HCC development in univariate analysis (P < .001), whereas entecavir start time (early vs middle vs late cohorts) did not affect the risk of HCC development (P = .457). A multivariate analysis revealed that older age (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]=1.041), male gender (aHR = 2.069), liver cirrhosis (aHR = 3.771) and Child‐Pugh class B (vs A, aHR = 1.548) were independently associated with an increased risk of HCC development, whereas higher platelet count was independently associated with a reduced risk of HCC development (aHR = 0.993; all P < .05). In conclusion, the risk of developing HCC among patients receiving entecavir in South Korea has been stable since 2007. To establish more effective HCC surveillance programs, further studies regarding the carcinogenic roles of nonviral factors are required.
Reappraisal of the diagnostic value of alpha‐fetoprotein for surveillance of HBV‐related hepatocellular carcinoma in the era of antiviral therapy
Authors: Qian Xiangjun , Liu Shuhong , Long Huiling , Zhang Siyu , Yan Xiaotong , Yao Mingjie , Zhou Jiyuan , Gong Jiao , Wang Jianwen , Wen Xiajie , Zhou Tao , Zhai Xiangwei , Xu Qiang , Zhang Ting , Chen Xiangmei , Hu Guoxin , Wang Jie , Gao Zhiliang , Nan Yuemin , Chen Junhui , Hu Bo , Zhao Jingmin , Lu Fengmin 
Published: August 2020

AbstractThis study was designed to explore if antiviral treatment influences the performance of serum alpha‐fetoprotein (AFP) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among the high‐risk chronic HBV‐infected patients. A total of 5936 patients who had evidence of chronic HBV infection were enrolled from four independent centres in this retrospective study, including 1721 chronic hepatitis B (CHB), 2286 liver cirrhosis (LC), 798 HCC within Milan criteria and 1131 HCC beyond Milan criteria patients. Stratified by whether they received treatment or not, the patients were further divided into antiviral and non‐antiviral groups. Then, the performance of AFP for discriminating HCC was evaluated. Patients receiving antivirals had significantly lower median levels of AFP compared with the non‐antiviral patients (P < .001), and there were significantly less patients with abnormal AFP levels in antiviral groups (P < .001). Antiviral therapy improved the AUROCs of AFP for discriminating HCC within Milan criteria. When setting the cut‐off values at 20 ng/mL and 100 ng/mL as surveillance and confirmatory tests respectively for HCC among patients receiving antiviral treatment, AFP exhibited a significantly higher sensitivity than those of 200 ng/mL and 400 ng/mL, which are currently recommended by some guidelines, without compromising specificity. Further analysis in antiviral patients revealed that serum AFP had better performance for discriminating HCC within Milan criteria in ALT ≤ 1ULN patients than that in ALT > 1ULN patients. In conclusion, in the era of antiviral therapy, serum AFP's surveillance performance was substantially improved for HCC within Milan criteria among the high‐risk population of CHB and LC patients.
An integrated transport and economic equilibrium model for autonomous transportation systems considering parking behavior
Authors: Zhang Xiang , Robson Edward , Waller S. Travis 
Published: August 2020

AbstractThis study investigates whether the expected travelling and parking behavior of autonomous vehicles (AVs) could lead to positive or negative societal impacts, both in terms of transport and the economy, which have been missed in previous studies. To capture transport performance and economic responses in the AV environment, we develop an integrated transport and economic equilibrium model that consists of the proposed autonomous traffic equilibrium and computable general equilibrium submodels. A modeling framework with a proposed solution methodology is presented to investigate the AV situation. A case study on Sydney, Australia shows that AV parking patterns can cause deterioration in traffic conditions with fewer completed journeys and greater travel time costs, which results in significant losses of social welfare. Furthermore, the disbenefit of AV travel behavior would become even larger with population growth.
Magnetic resonance imaging‐guided focused ultrasound bilateral thalamotomy for essential tremor: A case report
Authors: Ito Hisashi , Yamamoto Kazuaki , Fukutake Shigeru , Odo Takashi , Yamaguchi Toshio , Taira Takaomi 
Published: August 2020

AbstractWe herein report a 57‐year‐old man with medication refractory essential tremor (ET), who underwent magnetic resonance imaging‐guided focused ultrasound (MRgFUS) staged bilateral thalamotomy. Both hands tremor disappeared by contralateral thalamotomy, respectively. No serious complications occurred. Further investigations concerning the efficacy, safety, and appropriate intervals of this treatment are necessary.
Individuals with obesity and COVID‐19: A global perspective on the epidemiology and biological relationships
Authors: Popkin Barry M. , Du Shufa , Green William D. , Beck Melinda A. , Algaith Taghred , Herbst Christopher H. , Alsukait Reem F. , Alluhidan Mohammed , Alazemi Nahar , Shekar Meera 
Published: August 2020

SummaryThe linkage of individuals with obesity and COVID‐19 is controversial and lacks systematic reviews. After a systematic search of the Chinese and English language literature on COVID‐19, 75 studies were used to conduct a series of meta‐analyses on the relationship of individuals with obesity–COVID‐19 over the full spectrum from risk to mortality. A systematic review of the mechanistic pathways for COVID‐19 and individuals with obesity is presented. Pooled analysis show individuals with obesity were more at risk for COVID‐19 positive, >46.0% higher (OR = 1.46; 95% CI, 1.30–1.65;p< 0.0001); for hospitalization, 113% higher (OR = 2.13; 95% CI, 1.74–2.60;p< 0.0001); for ICU admission, 74% higher (OR = 1.74; 95% CI, 1.46–2.08); and for mortality, 48% increase in deaths (OR = 1.48; 95% CI, 1.22–1.80;p< 0.001). Mechanistic pathways for individuals with obesity are presented in depth for factors linked with COVID‐19 risk, severity and their potential for diminished therapeutic and prophylactic treatments among these individuals. Individuals with obesity are linked with large significant increases in morbidity and mortality from COVID‐19. There are many mechanisms that jointly explain this impact. A major concern is that vaccines will be less effective for the individuals with obesity.
Overcoming the constraints of spiral growth: the case of shell remodelling
Authors: Vermeij Geerat J. 
Published: August 2020

AbstractAs animals grow in size, their relationship to the physical environment necessarily changes, but molluscs and brachiopods whose accretionary skeletons expand at one end of a hollow cone conform to logarithmic‐spiral growth and retain a constant shape. Dissolution and remodelling of previously formed parts of the skeleton can alleviate the constraints of strict logarithmic‐spiral growth. How, when, where and in which clades mineral skeletal resorption has evolved are important questions because they relate to the conditions and history of skeletal formation and to the way in which ocean acidification in the past influenced that history. A synthesis of data on mineral dissolution in shells shows that resorption from the inner surface of bivalve shells occurs under temporarily anaerobic conditions within the closed shell, but functional remodelling is unknown in bivalves. Resorption and functional remodelling occur in brachiopods, gastropods and terrestrial hermit crabs, and to a lesser extent in scaphopods and cephalopods. Internal whorl resorption leading to a more compact visceral mass has evolved at least ten times in gastropods. Contrary to expectations stemming from patterns in the availability of calcium, gastropod remodelling is a phenomenon of warm, calcium‐rich environments and not of cold acidified conditions. There is therefore no evidence that internal whorl resorption increases calcium‐use efficiency. Resorption is one of several mechanisms that have enabled animal skeletons to become more dynamic and adaptable during ontogeny.
Stomatal size, ploidy and polyembryony in Eriotheca Stellate Trichome Species Complex (Bombacoideae – Malvaceae) in the Cerrados of Brazil
Authors: Marinho R. C. , Mendes‐Rodrigues C. , Bonetti A. M. , Oliveira P. E. 
Published: August 2020

Abstract

Geographic parthenogenesis, range expansion of apomictic plants after climate changes, has been described for Northern Hemisphere gametophytic apomicts. But similar trends have been observed for sporophytic apomicts of Cerrado, the savannas in Brazil. Eriotheca pubescens is a common Cerrado tree, an agamic complex of either hexaploid/polyembryonic apomicts or tetraploid/monoembryonic sexual individuals. Some populations have been described as a new species, Eriotheca estevesiae, all included in the Eriotheca Stellate Trichome Species Complex (ESTSC). Since breeding systems and ploidy are clearly associated with polyembryony and stomatal size, we used these ancillary features to map the reproductive and ploidy level traits of E. pubescens and E. estevesiae.

Leaves and seeds were collected from individuals of 19 populations. Seeds were evaluated for the presence of polyembryony and leaves for stomatal measurements.

Eight populations were monoembryonic while another eight were polyembryonic and for other three, the embryonic pattern was not readily verified. E. pubescens polyembryonic and hexaploid populations formed a homogeneous group, but monoembryonic plants were more variable. E. estevesiae populations were monoembryonic with smaller stomata. In contrast, some E. pubescens monoembryonic populations further south presented larger stomata. Despite these outliers, possibly mixed populations, stomatal size and embryonic pattern differed from northern to southern populations.

Embryonic pattern and stomatal size indicated that northernmost populations of Eriotheca STSC (E. estevesiae) are diploid and sexual. Southernmost populations, mostly polyembryonic and with large stomata, are hexaploid and apomictic. This is in agreement with geographic parthenogenesis and range expansion of apomictic lineages to southern habitats available after the last glacial maximum.
Markov Switching Modelling of Shooting Performance Variability and Teammate Interactions in Basketball
Authors: Sandri Marco , Zuccolotto Paola , Manisera Marica 
Published: August 2020

SummaryIn basketball, measures of individual player performance provide critical guidance for a broad spectrum of decisions related to training and game strategy. However, most studies on this topic focus on performance level measurement, neglecting other important factors, such as performance variability. Here we model shooting performance variability by using Markov switching models, assuming the existence of two alternating performance regimes related to the positive or negative synergies that specific combinations of players may create on the court. The main goal of this analysis is to investigate the relationships between each player's performance variability and team line-up composition by assuming shot-varying transition probabilities between regimes. Relationships between pairs of players are then visualized in a network graph, highlighting positive and negative interactions between teammates. On the basis of these interactions, we build a score for the line-ups, which we show correlates with the line-up's shooting performance. This confirms that interactions between teammates detected by the Markov switching model directly affect team performance, which is information that would be enormously useful to coaches when deciding which players should play together.