bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Choices in the Verification of S2S Forecasts and Their Implications for Climate Services
Authors: Manrique-Suñén Andrea , Gonzalez-Reviriego Nube , Torralba Verónica , Cortesi Nicola , Doblas-Reyes Francisco J. 
Published: August 2020

AbstractSubseasonal predictions bridge the gap between medium-range weather forecasts and seasonal climate predictions. This time scale is crucial for operations and planning in many sectors such as energy and agriculture. For users to trust these predictions and efficiently make use of them in decision-making, the quality of predicted near-surface parameters needs to be systematically assessed. However, the method to follow in a probabilistic evaluation of subseasonal predictions is not trivial. This study aims to offer an illustration of the impact that the verification setup might have on the calculation of the skill scores, thus providing some guidelines for subseasonal forecast evaluation. For this, several forecast verification setups to calculate the fair ranked probability skill score for tercile categories have been designed. These setups use different number of samples to compute the fair RPSS as well as different ways to define the climatology, characterized by different time periods to average (week or month). These setups have been tested by evaluating 2-m temperature in ECMWF-Ext-ENS 20-yr hindcasts for all of the initializations in 2016 against the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Then, the implications on skill score values of each of the setups are analyzed. Results show that to obtain a robust skill score several start dates need to be employed. It is also shown that a constant monthly climatology over each calendar month may introduce spurious skill score associated with the seasonal cycle. A weekly climatology bears similar results to a monthly running-window climatology; however, the latter provides a better reference climatology when bias adjustment is applied.
Convection Initiation and Growth at the Coast of South China. Part I: Effect of the Marine Boundary Layer Jet
Authors: Du Yu , Chen Guixing , Han Bin , Mai Chuying , Bai Lanqiang , Li Minghua 
Published: August 2020

Abstract
Convection initiation (CI) and the subsequent upscale convective growth (UCG) at the coast of South China in a warm-sector heavy rainfall event are shown to be closely linked to a varying marine boundary layer jet (MBLJ) over the northern South China Sea (NSCS). To elucidate the dynamic and thermodynamic roles of the MBLJ in CI and UCG, we conducted and analyzed convection-permitting numerical simulations and observations. Compared to radar observations, the simulations captured CI locations and the following southwest–northeast-oriented convection development. The nocturnal MBLJ peaks at 950 hPa and significantly intensifies with turning from southwesterly to nearly southerly by inertial oscillation. The strengthened MBLJ promotes mesoscale ascent on its northwestern edge and terminus where enhanced convergence zones occur. Located directly downstream of the MBLJ, the coastal CI and UCG are dynamically supported by mesoscale ascent. From a thermodynamic perspective, a warm moist tongue over the NSCS is strengthened by the MBLJ-driven mesoscale ascent as well as by a high sea surface temperature. The warm moist tongue farther extends northeastward by horizontal transport and arrives at the coast where CI and UCG occur. Near the CI location, rapid development of a low-level saturated layer is mainly attributed to the mesoscale ascent and low-level moistening associated with the MBLJ. In addition, subsequent CI happens on either side of the original CI along the coast due to the delay of low-level moistening, which partly contributes to linear convective growth. Furthermore, ensemble simulations confirmed that a stronger MBLJ is more favorable to CI and UCG near the coast.
An Artificially Intelligent System for the Automated Issuance of Tornado Warnings in Simulated Convective Storms
Authors: Steinkruger Dylan , Markowski Paul , Young George 
Published: August 2020

AbstractThe utility of employing artificial intelligence (AI) to issue tornado warnings is explored using an ensemble of 128 idealized simulations. Over 700 tornadoes develop within the ensemble of simulations, varying in duration, length, and associated storm mode. Machine-learning models are trained to forecast the temporal and spatial probabilities of tornado formation for a specific lead time. The machine-learning probabilities are used to produce tornado warning decisions for each grid point and lead time. An optimization function is defined, such that warning thresholds are modified to optimize the performance of the AI system on a specified metric (e.g., increased lead time, minimized false alarms, etc.). Using genetic algorithms, multiple AI systems are developed with different optimization functions. The different AI systems yield unique warning output depending on the desired attributes of the optimization function. The effects of the different optimization functions on warning performance are explored. Overall, performance is encouraging and suggests that automated tornado warning guidance is worth exploring with real-time data.
Identifying Subseasonal Variability Relevant to Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity
Authors: Hansen Kurt A. , Majumdar Sharanya J. , Kirtman Ben P. 
Published: August 2020

AbstractThe primary atmospheric oscillations and variables associated with subseasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity are identified, based on 37 years of reanalysis data. TC activity, represented by accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), is computed for combined phases of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The MJO influence on TC activity becomes greater when the ENSO state is cooler. There is also a shift in the favorable MJO phase for TC activity with ENSO state. For strong La Niñas, MJO phases 4 and 5 (enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent) are most likely to have above-average ACE. To investigate other potential factors that influence subseasonal TC activity, two novel methods are developed: ACE by year (ABY) and seasonal and climatology removed (SNCR). Both methods isolate subseasonal signals of environmental conditions in association with a variable of interest. Vorticity, sea surface temperature, relative humidity, and genesis potential all show little signal in association with subseasonal Atlantic TC activity. The most important identifier of enhanced TC activity is negative vertical wind shear anomalies in the main development region of the Atlantic basin, and positive shear anomalies in the subtropical Atlantic. The shear pattern associated with a favorable MJO for TCs is similar to but distinct from the shear pattern associated with enhanced subseasonal TC activity. These findings demonstrate a nonlinear MJO–ENSO interaction and a pattern of wind shear anomalies that is linked to subseasonal TC activity.
The 23 June 2016 West Virginia Flash Flood Event as Observed through Two Hydrometeorology Testbed Experiments
Authors: Martinaitis Steven M. , Albright Benjamin , Gourley Jonathan J. , Perfater Sarah , Meyer Tiffany , Flamig Zachary L. , Clark Robert A. , Vergara Humberto , Klein Mark 
Published: August 2020

AbstractThe flash flood event of 23 June 2016 devastated portions of West Virginia and west-central Virginia, resulting in 23 fatalities and 5 new record river crests. The flash flooding was part of a multiday event that was classified as a billion-dollar disaster. The 23 June 2016 event occurred during real-time operations by two Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) experiments. The Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall (FFaIR) experiment focused on the 6–24-h forecast through the utilization of experimental high-resolution deterministic and ensemble numerical weather prediction and hydrologic model guidance. The HMT Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor Hydro (HMT-Hydro) experiment concentrated on the 0–6-h time frame for the prediction and warning of flash floods primarily through the experimental Flooded Locations and Simulated Hydrographs product suite. This study describes the various model guidance, applications, and evaluations from both testbed experiments during the 23 June 2016 flash flood event. Various model outputs provided a significant precipitation signal that increased the confidence of FFaIR experiment participants to issue a high risk for flash flooding for the region between 1800 UTC 23 June and 0000 UTC 24 June. Experimental flash flood warnings issued during the HMT-Hydro experiment for this event improved the probability of detection and resulted in a 63.8% increase in lead time to 84.2 min. Isolated flash floods in Kentucky demonstrated the potential to reduce the warned area. Participants characterized how different model guidance and analysis products influenced the decision-making process and how the experimental products can help shape future national and local flash flood operations.
A Comparison of Neural-Network and Surrogate-Severe Probabilistic Convective Hazard Guidance Derived from a Convection-Allowing Model
Authors: Sobash Ryan A. , Romine Glen S. , Schwartz Craig S. 
Published: August 2020

AbstractA feed-forward neural network (NN) was trained to produce gridded probabilistic convective hazard predictions over the contiguous United States. Input fields to the NN included 174 predictors, derived from 38 variables output by 497 convection-allowing model forecasts, with observed severe storm reports used for training and verification. These NN probability forecasts (NNPFs) were compared to surrogate-severe probability forecasts (SSPFs), generated by smoothing a field of surrogate reports derived with updraft helicity (UH). NNPFs and SSPFs were produced each forecast hour on an 80-km grid, with forecasts valid for the occurrence of any severe weather report within 40 or 120 km, and 2 h, of each 80-km grid box. NNPFs were superior to SSPFs, producing statistically significant improvements in forecast reliability and resolution. Additionally, NNPFs retained more large magnitude probabilities (>50%) compared to SSPFs since NNPFs did not use spatial smoothing, improving forecast sharpness. NNPFs were most skillful relative to SSPFs when predicting hazards on larger scales (e.g., 120 vs 40 km) and in situations where using UH was detrimental to forecast skill. These included model spinup, nocturnal periods, and regions and environments where supercells were less common, such as the western and eastern United States and high-shear, low-CAPE regimes. NNPFs trained with fewer predictors were more skillful than SSPFs, but not as skillful as the full-predictor NNPFs, with predictor importance being a function of forecast lead time. Placing NNPF skill in the context of existing baselines is a first step toward integrating machine learning–based forecasts into the operational forecasting process.
Main symptoms in patients presenting in the COVID-19 period
Authors: Çalıca Utku Aylin , Budak Gökçen , Karabay Oğuz , Güçlü Ertuğrul , Okan Hüseyin Doğuş , Vatan Aslı 
Published: August 2020

Background The first case of a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection was detected in Wuhan, fever and respiratory symptoms have been frequently reported in patients infected with this virus. Aim It was aimed to compare the symptoms of patients with COVID-19 positivity and patients without COVID-19 positivity hospitalized with suspicion of COVID-19. Methods Patients presenting to the Sakarya University Training and Research Hospital with suspicion of COVID-19 were included in the study. Samples were obtained from the patients and PCR tests were performed; the patients were grouped as COVID-19 positive and COVID-19 negative; these two groups were questioned for 15 symptoms and the results were compared. Results A total of 297 patients with suspicion of COVID-19 were included in the study. COVID-19 was positive in 143 patients and negative in 154 patients. The most common symptoms in the COVID-19 positive group were: cough (56.6%), weakness (56.6%), taste disorder (35.7%), myalgia (34.3%), and fever (33.6%); and in the COVID-19 negative group: cough (63%), weakness (45.5%), dyspnea (29.9%), headache (27.3%) and fever (24.7%). When these two groups were compared, taste disorder, smell disorder and diarrhea were significantly higher in the COVID-19 positive group (p = <0,00001, p = 0,00001 and p = 0,02). Conclusion Our study showed that taste and smell disorders and diarrhea were important markers in COVID-19 infection.
The Programmatic Shifts in the PT’s Constitutionalist Agenda (1988–2013)
Authors: Funari Gabriel 
Published: August 2020

The historical trajectory of the Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) has been influenced by its fluctuating policies with regard to the 1988 Constitution and its efforts to mediate the demands of its marginalized constituents and its commitment to abide by the constituted distribution of power. Case studies of the PT’s policy proposals during the 1987–1988 constituent assembly and the party’s constitutional plebiscite proposal in response to the mass protests of June 2013 reveal the unresolved contradictions underpinning constituent and constituted power that have bound it to the constitutional disputes defining Brazil’s democratic regime. A trajetória histórica do Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) foi influenciada por suas políticas flutuantes em relação à Constituição de 1988, em seus esforços para mediar as demandas de seus constituintes marginalizados e seu compromisso de respeitar a distribuição de poder constituída. Estudos de caso das propostas de política do PT durante a assembléia constituinte de 1987-1988 e a proposta de plebiscito constitucional do partido em resposta aos protestos em massa de junho de 2013 revelam as contradições não resolvidas subjacentes ao constituinte e ao poder constituído que vincularam o partido às disputas constitucionais que definem o regime democrático do Brasil.
Risk Factors for Laryngectomy for Dysfunctional Larynx After Organ Preservation Protocols: A Case‐Control Analysis
Authors: Wu Michael P. , Goldsmith Tessa , Holman Allison , Kammer Rachael , Parikh Anuraag , Devore Elliana K. , Emerick Kevin S. , Lin Derrick T. , Deschler Daniel G. , Richmon Jeremy D. , Varvares Mark A. , Naunheim Matthew R. 
Published: August 2020

Objective(1) To identify factors associated with severe dysfunctional larynx leading to total laryngectomy after curative treatment of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma and (2) to describe swallowing and voice outcomes.Study DesignRetrospective single‐institution case‐control study.SettingTertiary care referral center.MethodsA 10‐year chart review was performed for patients who had previously undergone radiation or chemoradiation for head and neck mucosal squamous cell carcinoma and planned to undergo total laryngectomy for dysfunctional larynx, as well as a control group of matched patients. Controls were patients who had undergone radiation or chemoradiation for mucosal squamous cell carcinoma but did not have severe dysfunction warranting laryngectomy; these were matched to cases by tumor subsite, T stage, and time from last treatment to video swallow study. Main outcomes assessed were postoperative diet, alaryngeal voice, pharyngeal dilations, and complications.ResultsTwenty‐six patients were scheduled for laryngectomy for dysfunctional larynx, of which 23 underwent surgery. Originally treated tumor subsites included the larynx, oropharynx, hypopharynx, oral cavity, and a tumor of unknown origin. The median time from end of cancer treatment to laryngectomy was 11.5 years. All cases were feeding tube or tracheostomy dependent or both prior to laryngectomy. As compared with matched controls, cases were significantly less likely to have undergone IMRT (intensity‐modified radiotherapy) and more likely to have pulmonary comorbidities. Eighty‐nine percent of cases with follow‐up achieved functional alaryngeal voice, and all were able to have oral intake.ConclusionNon‐IMRT approaches and pulmonary comorbidities are associated with laryngectomy for dysfunction after radiation or chemoradiation.
Management of Type 1 Laryngeal Clefts: A Systematic Review and Meta‐analysis
Authors: Timashpolsky Alisa , Schild Sam D. , Ballard Daniel P. , Leventer Sarah P. , Rosenfeld Richard M. , Plum Ann W. 
Published: August 2020

ObjectiveEndoscopic surgical management or injection laryngoplasty of type 1 laryngeal clefts in pediatric patients is used in those who do not respond to conservative treatment. This study compares conservative treatment, endoscopic surgical repair, and injection laryngoplasty for the management of type 1 laryngeal clefts.Data SourcesPubMed, Web of Science, and Embase.Review MethodsThis systematic review included studies of patients with type 1 laryngeal clefts who were managed with conservative treatment, injection laryngoplasty, or endoscopic repair, and all studies reported postintervention outcomes. Two independent investigators assessed study eligibility, rated the quality, and extracted data for analysis. A random effects model was used for meta‐analysis of pooled data.ResultsOf the 1209 studies identified, 27 met inclusion criteria. There were 543 patients with type 1 laryngeal clefts represented in the studies, with outcomes reported for 537. Conservative therapy had a 52% (95% CI, 37%‐66%; I2 = 63%) success rate at improving symptoms, while endoscopic repair had a significantly higher percentage resolution of symptoms (70%; 95% CI, 59%‐79%; I2 = 62%, P <. 001) as compared with conservative treatment (51%; 95% CI, 36%‐65%; I2 = 62%) or injection laryngoplasty (36%; 95% CI, 20%‐57%; I2 = 70%). The quality scores of the studies ranged from 7 to 12 out of 16.ConclusionOur systematic review demonstrated significant improvement and resolution of symptoms for patients with type 1 laryngeal clefts treated with endoscopic repair as compared with other modalities. More prospective and controlled studies comparing treatment strategies with validated instruments to measure outcomes are necessary to determine their efficacy in the management of type 1 laryngeal clefts.
Measuring the Impact of COVID-19 on Mental Health: A Scoping Review of the Existing Scales
Authors: Chandu Viswa Chaitanya , Marella Yamuna , Panga Gnana Sarita , Pachava Srinivas , Vadapalli Viswanath 
Published: August 2020

Background: The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, associated with the economic consequences of non-pharmaceutical interventions such as lockdown, has led to mental health consequences among people worldwide. Protecting the mental well-being of populations is an imperative component of fighting the COVID-19 pandemic. This scoping review attempts to present an overview of the existing tools to measure COVID-19-related mental health problems. Methods: Literature search was conducted in the PubMed electronic database using developed key search terms. Reference lists of the identified eligible articles were reviewed to locate relevant articles missed from the electronic database search. Fifteen scales measuring COVID-19-associated mental health problems, validated among diverse populations across the world, were included in this review. Results: The majority of these scales were validated among middle-aged adults in Turkey. Only a few validated scales encompass the negative socioeconomic consequences of COVID-19. None of the available scales focused on the aspects of suicidal ideation or behavioral responses/coping strategies, neither were they inclusive of participants from diverse age, geographic, and COVID-19 exposure groups. Conclusion: This scoping review highlights the need for future research to develop and validate comprehensive psychometric tools to assess COVID-19-associated mental health problems. Also, in view of the vulnerable nature of healthcare professionals for developing mental health concerns in the course of providing services for COVID-19-affected individuals, future psychometric research needs to concentrate on the development of measures specific for these professionals.
Quantitative assessment of the association of polymorphisms in the metallothionein 2A gene with cancer risk
Authors: Wang Jianguo , Huang Pinghua , Zhao Wei , Ren Wei , Ai Ling , Wu Liping 
Published: August 2020

Objective The aim of the study was to quantitatively assess the association of metallothionein 2A ( MT2A) polymorphisms rs28366003 and rs1610216 with cancer risk. Methods Crude odd ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were used to estimate associations of the polymorphisms with cancer risk. Results Six eligible case-control studies with 1899 cases and 2437 controls focused on rs28366003, and three of those six studies, with 548 cases and 926 controls, additionally focused on rs1610216. Pooled analysis showed that MT2A rs28366003 and rs1610216 were associated with cancer risk: (AG + GG) vs. AA, OR = 2.67; GG vs. (AG + AA), OR = 5.97; GG vs. AA, OR = 6.80; AG vs. AA, OR = 2.46; G vs. A, OR = 2.67 for rs28366003; and CC vs. (TC+TT), OR = 2.51; CC vs. TT, OR = 2.42 for rs1610216. Subgroup analysis based on ethnicity showed a significant association of rs28366003 with cancer risk in Asian and Caucasian populations. However, a significant association of rs1610216 with cancer risk was found only in the Asian population. Conclusion MT2A rs28366003 and rs1610216 polymorphisms were associated with cancer risk and might serve as genetic biomarkers for predicting cancer risk. However, larger studies are needed to confirm these findings.
Differences in physical function across cancer recovery phases: Findings from the 2015 National Health Interview Survey
Authors: Hong Ickpyo , Hreha Kimberly , Swartz Maria Chang , R. Pappadis Monique , Yoo Kyungtae , Ko Mansoo 
Published: August 2020

Introduction Recent cancer survivors (<2 years post-diagnosis) report poorer general health and physical weakness compared to long-term cancer survivors (≥2 years post-diagnosis), but differences in functional limitations are unknown. It is unclear which daily tasks are more difficult for recent versus long-term survivors. We aimed to examine differences in functional performances across cancer recovery phases as potential targets for functional impairment screening. Method The cohort consisted of adults with a cancer history in the 2015 National Health Interview Survey ( n = 2372). Multivariate logistic regression models were used to estimate the odds of having difficulty in health-related outcomes across the cancer recovery phases (recent versus long-term). Results Most subjects were long-term survivors (84.9%). Recent survivors were more likely to have difficulty in work, mobility-related daily tasks and social participation compared to long-term survivors. No differences were found in basic activities of daily living, cognition and emotional functioning between the groups. Conclusion While recent cancer survivors were independent in basic daily tasks, they had difficulties in performing daily tasks that required a high level of physical function. Clinicians, especially occupational therapists, should prioritize evaluating physical functioning to guide intervention planning for recent cancer survivors.