bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Local Rossby Wave Packet Amplitude, Phase Speed, and Group Velocity: Seasonal Variability and Their Role in Temperature Extremes
Authors: Fragkoulidis Georgios , Wirth Volkmar 
Published: August 2020

AbstractTransient Rossby wave packets (RWPs) are a prominent feature of the synoptic to planetary upper-tropospheric flow at the midlatitudes. Their demonstrated role in various aspects of weather and climate prompts the investigation of characteristic properties like their amplitude, phase speed, and group velocity. Traditional frameworks for the diagnosis of the two latter have so far remained nonlocal in space or time, thus preventing a detailed view on the spatiotemporal evolution of RWPs. The present work proposes a method for the diagnosis of horizontal Rossby wave phase speed and group velocity locally in space and time. The approach is based on the analytic signal of upper-tropospheric meridional wind velocity and RWP amplitude, respectively. The new diagnostics are first applied to illustrative examples from a barotropic model simulation and the real atmosphere. The main seasonal and interregional variability features of RWP amplitude, phase speed, and group velocity are then explored using ERA5 reanalysis data for the time period 1979–2018. Apparent differences and similarities in these respects between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres are also discussed. Finally, the role of RWP amplitude and phase speed during central European short-lived and persistent temperature extremes is investigated based on changes of their distribution compared to the climatology of the region. The proposed diagnostics offer insight into the spatiotemporal variability of RWP properties and allow the evaluation of their implications at low computational demands.
Why Has the Inner Tibetan Plateau Become Wetter since the Mid-1990s?
Authors: Sun Jing , Yang Kun , Guo Weidong , Wang Yan , He Jie , Lu Hui 
Published: August 2020

AbstractThe Inner Tibetan Plateau (ITP; also called the Qiangtang Plateau) appears to have experienced an overall wetting in summer (June, July, and August) since the mid-1990s, which has caused the rapid expansion of thousands of lakes. In this study, changes in atmospheric circulations associated with the wetting process are analyzed for 1979–2018. These analyses show that the wetting is associated with simultaneously weakened westerlies over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). The latter is further significantly correlated with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) on interdecadal time scales. The AMO has been in a positive phase (warm anomaly of the North Atlantic Ocean sea surface) since the mid-1990s, which has led to both a northward shift and weakening of the subtropical westerly jet stream at 200 hPa near the TP through a wave train of cyclonic and anticyclonic anomalies over Eurasia. These anomalies are characterized by an anomalous anticyclone to the east of the ITP and an anomalous cyclone to the west of the ITP. The former weakens the westerly winds, trapping water vapor over the ITP while the latter facilitates water vapor intruding from the Arabian Sea into the ITP. Accordingly, summer precipitation over the ITP has increased since the mid-1990s.
Correction of Inhomogeneities in Observed Land Surface Temperatures over China
Authors: Du Jizeng , Wang Kaicun , Cui Baoshan , Jiang Shaojing 
Published: August 2020

AbstractLand surface temperature Ts and near-surface air temperature Ta are two main metrics that reflect climate change. Recently, based on in situ observations, several studies found that Ts warmed much faster than Ta in China, especially after 2000. However, we found abnormal jumps in the Ts time series during 2003–05, mainly caused by the transformation from manual to automatic measurements due to snow cover. We explore the physical mechanism of the differences between automatic and manual observations and develop a model to correct the automatic observations on snowy days in the observed records of Ts. Furthermore, the nonclimatic shifts in the observed Ts were detected and corrected using the RHtest method. After corrections, the warming rates for Ts-max, Ts-min, and Ts-mean were 0.21°, 0.34°, and 0.25°C decade−1, respectively, during the 1960–2014 period. The abnormal jump in the difference between Ts and Ta over China after 2003, which was mentioned in existing studies, was mainly caused by inhomogeneities rather than climate change. Through a combined analysis using reanalyses and CMIP5 models, we found that Ts was consistent with Ta both in terms of interannual variability and long-term trends over China during 1960–2014. The Ts minus Ta (Ts − Ta) trend is from −0.004° to 0.009°C decade−1, accounting for from −3.19% to 5.93% (from −3.09% to 6.39%) of the absolute warming trend of Ts (Ta).
Strengthened Linkage between November/December North Atlantic Oscillation and Subsequent January European Precipitation after the Late 1980s
Authors: Liu Yang , He Shengping 
Published: August 2020

AbstractThis work investigates the nonsynchronous relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and winter European precipitation. The results indicate that the linkage between early-winter (November and December) NAO and the following January precipitation and atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic and European sectors became statistically significant after the late 1980s. Before the late 1980s, January precipitation and atmospheric circulation are weakly correlated with early-winter NAO. After the late 1980s, by contrast, the positive phase of the early-winter NAO is generally followed by an anomalous meridional dipole pattern with barotropic structure over the North Atlantic, which provides conditions for more (less) precipitation south of Iceland (east of the Azores). Further analysis elucidates that this regime shift may be partly attributed to the change of early-winter NAO, which is concurrent with significant change in the intensity of the synoptic and low-frequency eddy interaction over the Atlantic–European sectors. Anomalous positive sea level pressure and geopotential height, along with zonal wind anomalies associated with a positive early-winter NAO over the North Atlantic, are more significant and extend more northeastward after the late 1980s, which may be induced by an intensified transient eddy feedback after the late 1980s, as well as the enhanced storm-track activity over the North Atlantic. Thus, early-winter NAO can induce significant ocean temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic after the late 1980s, which extend downward into the middle parts of the thermocline and persist until the following January to trigger NAO-like atmospheric circulation patterns. Analyses from the Community Earth System Model large ensemble simulations indicate the effects of internal climate variability on such a strengthened linkage.
Contrasting Southern Hemisphere Monsoon Response: MidHolocene Orbital Forcing versus Future Greenhouse Gas–Induced Global Warming
Authors: D’Agostino Roberta , Brown Josephine R. , Moise Aurel , Nguyen Hanh , Silva Dias Pedro L. , Jungclaus Johann 
Published: August 2020

AbstractPast changes of Southern Hemisphere (SH) monsoons are less investigated than their northern counterpart because of relatively scarce paleodata. In addition, projections of SH monsoons are less robust than in the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we use an energetic framework to shed lights on the mechanisms determining SH monsoonal response to external forcing: precession change at the mid-Holocene versus future greenhouse gas increase (RCP8.5). Mechanisms explaining the monsoon response are investigated by decomposing the moisture budget in thermodynamic and dynamic components. SH monsoons weaken and contract in the multimodel mean of midHolocene simulations as a result of decreased net energy input and weakening of the dynamic component. In contrast, SH monsoons strengthen and expand in the RCP8.5 multimodel mean, as a result of increased net energy input and strengthening of the thermodynamic component. However, important regional differences on monsoonal precipitation emerge from the local response of Hadley and Walker circulations. In the midHolocene, the combined effect of Walker–Hadley changes explains the land–ocean precipitation contrast. Conversely, the increased local gross moist stability explains the increased local precipitation and net energy input under circulation weakening in RCP8.5.
Changes in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index in the Orinoco and Amazon River Basins: Links to Tropical Atlantic Surface Temperatures
Authors: Arias Paola A. , Martínez J. Alejandro , Mejía Juan David , Pazos María José , Espinoza Jhan Carlo , Wongchuig-Correa Sly 
Published: August 2020

AbstractWe analyze the observed relationship between sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Atlantic Ocean and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in the Orinoco and Amazon basins. Monthly correlations between anomalies of NDVI and SSTs are computed for different regions of the Atlantic Ocean. We also use a mixture of observations and reanalysis products to analyze lagged correlations. Our results show that during August–September (i.e., the dry-to-wet transition season), changes in NDVI in the central Amazon and the so-called Arc of Deforestation are associated with precedent changes in the SSTs of the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) and the Caribbean (CABN) during March–June. Anomalous warming of the CABN and TNA generates changes in surface winds and atmospheric moisture transport in the region, decreasing precipitation, with consequent decreases of soil moisture, moisture recycling, and NDVI. An increase in TNA and CABN SSTs during March–June is also associated with an increase of NDVI over the northern Orinoco during June (i.e., the wet season). Unlike in the southern Amazon, precipitation and soil moisture in the Orinoco basin do not exhibit significant changes associated with SSTs. By contrast, atmospheric moisture recycling and transport increase with warmer SSTs in the TNA. Therefore, for the Orinoco, the link between SSTs and NDVI appears to be related not to changes in precipitation but to changes in moisture recycling. However, the causality between these changes needs to be further explored. These findings highlight the contrasting responses of the Amazon and Orinoco basins to Atlantic temperatures and the dominant role of atmospheric moisture transport linking these responses.
Breakdown of the Summertime Meridional Teleconnection Pattern over the Western North Pacific and East Asia since the Early 2000s
Authors: Li Xinyu , Lu Riyu 
Published: August 2020

AbstractThe meridional teleconnection over the western North Pacific and East Asia (WNP–EA) plays a predominant role in affecting the interannual variability of East Asian climate in summer. This study identified a breakdown of the meridional teleconnection since the early 2000s. Before the early 2000s, there are close tropical–extratropical relationships in light of both circulation and rainfall anomalies. For instance, the westward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) is closely associated with the southward shift of the East Asian westerly jet (EAJ), and more rainfall in the tropical WNP closely corresponds to less rainfall in the subtropical WNP–EA. However, after the early 2000s, the tropical–extratropical relationships are absent. Particularly, the tropical WNP precipitation anomalies can induce WNPSH anomalies, but the WNPSH anomalies cannot induce subtropical precipitation in the latter period, due to the absence of EAJ-related extratropical circulation anomalies. Further results indicate that in the latter period, the westward extension of the WNPSH is associated with the decay of central Pacific-like El Niño, and simultaneous summer sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central eastern Pacific favor the northward shift of the EAJ, resulting in the disruption of the WNPSH–EAJ relationship. This evolution of tropical SSTs is sharply different from the decay of canonical El Niño and simultaneous summer tropical Indian Ocean warming, which favor the WNPSH–EAJ correspondence in the former period.
Are the Transient and Equilibrium Climate Change Patterns Similar in Response to Increased CO2?
Authors: Huang Danqing , Dai Aiguo , Zhu Jian 
Published: August 2020

AbstractAfter a CO2 increase, whether the early transient and final equilibrium climate change patterns are similar has major implications. Here, we analyze long-term simulations from multiple climate models under increased CO2, together with the extended simulations from CMIP5, to compare the transient and equilibrium climate change patterns under different forcing scenarios. Results show that the normalized warming patterns (per 1 K of global warming) are broadly similar among different forcing scenarios (including abrupt 2 × CO2, 4 × CO2, and 1% CO2 increase per year) and during different time periods, except for the first 50 years or so when warming is weaker over the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean but stronger over most continents. During the first 200 years, this consistency is stronger over land than over ocean, but is lower in midlatitudes than other regions. Normalized precipitation change patterns are also similar, albeit to a lesser degree, among different forcing scenarios and across different time periods, although noticeable differences exist during the first few hundred years with smaller increases over the tropical Pacific. Precipitation over many subtropical oceans and land areas decreases consistently under different forcing scenarios and over all time periods. In particular, the transient and near-equilibrium change patterns for both surface air temperature and precipitation are similar over most of the globe, except for the North Atlantic warming hole, which is mainly a transient feature. The Arctic amplification and land–ocean warming contrast are largest during the first 100–200 years after CO2 quadrupling but they still exist in the equilibrium response.
Simulation of Northeast U.S. Extreme Precipitation and Its Associated Circulation by CMIP5 Models
Authors: Agel Laurie , Barlow Mathew , Polonia Joseph , Coe David 
Published: August 2020

AbstractHistorical simulations from 14 models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are evaluated for their ability to reproduce observed precipitation in the northeastern United States and its associated circulation, with particular emphasis on extreme (top 1%) precipitation. The models are compared to observations in terms of the spatial variations of extreme precipitation, seasonal cycles of precipitation and extreme precipitation frequency and intensity, and extreme precipitation circulation regimes. The circulation regimes are identified using k-means clustering of 500-hPa geopotential heights on extreme precipitation days, in both observations and in the models. While all models capture an observed northwest-to-southeast gradient of precipitation intensity (reflected in the top 1% threshold), there are substantial differences from observations in the magnitude of the gradient. These differences tend to be more substantial for lower-resolution models. However, regardless of resolution, and despite a bias toward too-frequent precipitation, many of the models capture the seasonality of observed daily precipitation intensity, and the approximate magnitude and seasonality of observed extreme precipitation intensity. Many of the simulated extreme precipitation circulation patterns are visually similar to the set of observed patterns. However, the location and magnitude of specific troughs and ridges within the patterns, as well as the seasonality of the patterns, may differ substantially from the observed corresponding patterns. A series of metrics is developed based on the observed regional characteristics to facilitate comparison between models.
Pattern Recognition Methods to Separate Forced Responses from Internal Variability in Climate Model Ensembles and Observations
Authors: Wills Robert C. J. , Battisti David S. , Armour Kyle C. , Schneider Tapio , Deser Clara 
Published: August 2020

AbstractEnsembles of climate model simulations are commonly used to separate externally forced climate change from internal variability. However, much of the information gained from running large ensembles is lost in traditional methods of data reduction such as linear trend analysis or large-scale spatial averaging. This paper demonstrates how a pattern recognition method (signal-to-noise-maximizing pattern filtering) extracts patterns of externally forced climate change from large ensembles and identifies the forced climate response with up to 10 times fewer ensemble members than simple ensemble averaging. It is particularly effective at filtering out spatially coherent modes of internal variability (e.g., El Niño, North Atlantic Oscillation), which would otherwise alias into estimates of regional responses to forcing. This method is used to identify forced climate responses within the 40-member Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble, including an El Niño–like response to volcanic eruptions and forced trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation. The ensemble-based estimate of the forced response is used to test statistical methods for isolating the forced response from a single realization (i.e., individual ensemble members). Low-frequency pattern filtering is found to skillfully identify the forced response within individual ensemble members and is applied to the HadCRUT4 reconstruction of observed temperatures, whereby it identifies slow components of observed temperature changes that are consistent with the expected effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing.
From CMIP3 to CMIP6: Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Blocking Simulation in Present and Future Climate
Authors: Davini Paolo , D’Andrea Fabio 
Published: August 2020

AbstractA comprehensive analysis of the representation of winter and summer Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking in global climate simulations in both present and future climate is presented. Three generations of climate models are considered: CMIP3 (2007), CMIP5 (2012), and CMIP6 (2019). All models show common and extended underestimation of blocking frequencies, but a reduction of the negative biases in successive model generations is observed. However, in some specific regions and seasons such as the winter European sector, even CMIP6 models are not yet able to achieve the observed blocking frequency. For future decades the vast majority of models simulate a decrease of blocking frequency in both winter and summer, with the exception of summer blocking over the Urals and winter blocking over western North America. Winter predicted decreases may be even larger than currently estimated considering that models with larger blocking frequencies, and hence generally smaller errors, show larger reduction. Nonetheless, trends computed over the historical period are weak and often contrast with observations: this is particularly worrisome for summer Greenland blocking where models and observations significantly disagree. Finally, the intensity of global warming is related to blocking changes: wintertime European and North Pacific blocking are expected to decrease following larger global mean temperatures, while Ural summer blocking is expected to increase.
Impacts of Stratospheric Ozone Extremes on Arctic High Cloud
Authors: Maleska Sarah , Smith Karen L. , Virgin John 
Published: August 2020

AbstractStratospheric ozone depletion in the Antarctic is well known to cause changes in Southern Hemisphere tropospheric climate; however, because of its smaller magnitude in the Arctic, the effects of stratospheric ozone depletion on Northern Hemisphere tropospheric climate are not as obvious or well understood. Recent research using both global climate models and observational data has determined that the impact of ozone depletion on ozone extremes can affect interannual variability in tropospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere in spring. To further this work, we use a coupled chemistry–climate model to examine the difference in high cloud between years with anomalously low and high Arctic stratospheric ozone concentrations. We find that low ozone extremes during the late twentieth century, when ozone-depleting substances (ODS) emissions are higher, are related to a decrease in upper tropospheric stability and an increase in high cloud fraction, which may contribute to enhanced Arctic surface warming in spring through a positive longwave cloud radiative effect. A better understanding of how Arctic climate is affected by ODS emissions, ozone depletion, and ozone extremes will lead to improved predictions of Arctic climate and its associated feedbacks with atmospheric fields as ozone levels recover.
Effects of Buoyancy and Wind Forcing on Southern Ocean Climate Change
Authors: Shi Jia-Rui , Talley Lynne D. , Xie Shang-Ping , Liu Wei , Gille Sarah T. 
Published: August 2020

AbstractObservations show that since the 1950s, the Southern Ocean has stored a large amount of anthropogenic heat and has freshened at the surface. These patterns can be attributed to two components of surface forcing: poleward-intensified westerly winds and increased buoyancy flux from freshwater and heat. Here we separate the effects of these two forcing components by using a novel partial-coupling technique. We show that buoyancy forcing dominates the overall response in the temperature and salinity structure of the Southern Ocean. Wind stress change results in changes in subsurface temperature and salinity that are closely related to intensified residual meridional overturning circulation. As an important result, we show that buoyancy and wind forcing result in opposing changes in salinity: the wind-induced surface salinity increase due to upwelling of saltier subsurface water offsets surface freshening due to amplification of the global hydrological cycle. Buoyancy and wind forcing further lead to different vertical structures of Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport change; buoyancy forcing causes an ACC transport increase (3.1 ± 1.6 Sv; 1 Sv ≡ 106m3s−1) by increasing the meridional density gradient across the ACC in the upper 2000 m, while the wind-induced response is more barotropic, with the whole column transport increased by 8.7 ± 2.3 Sv. While previous research focused on the wind effect on ACC intensity, we show that surface horizontal current acceleration within the ACC is dominated by buoyancy forcing. These results shed light on how the Southern Ocean might change under global warming, contributing to more reliable future projections.