bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
A multi-country comparison of stochastic models of breast cancer mortality with P-splines smoothing approach
Authors: Mubarik Sumaira , Hu Ying , Yu Chuanhua 
Published: December 2020

Abstract
Background
Precise predictions of incidence and mortality rates due to breast cancer (BC) are required for planning of public health programs as well as for clinical services. A number of approaches has been established for prediction of mortality using stochastic models. The performance of these models intensely depends on different patterns shown by mortality data in different countries.

Methods
The BC mortality data is retrieved from the Global burden of disease (GBD) study 2017 database. This study include BC mortality rates from 1990 to 2017, with ages 20 to 80+ years old women, for different Asian countries. Our study extend the current literature on Asian BC mortality data, on both the number of considered stochastic mortality models and their rigorous evaluation using multivariate Diebold-Marino test and by range of graphical analysis for multiple countries.

Results
Study findings reveal that stochastic smoothed mortality models based on functional data analysis generally outperform on quadratic structure of BC mortality rates than the other lee-carter models, both in term of goodness of fit and on forecast accuracy. Besides, smoothed lee carter (SLC) model outperform the functional demographic model (FDM) in case of symmetric structure of BC mortality rates, and provides almost comparable results to FDM in within and outside data forecast accuracy for heterogeneous set of BC mortality rates.

Conclusion
Considering the SLC model in comparison to the other can be obliging to forecast BC mortality and life expectancy at birth, since it provides even better results in some cases. In the current situation, we can assume that there is no single model, which can truly outperform all the others on every population. Therefore, we also suggest generating BC mortality forecasts using multiple models rather than relying upon any single model.
Age trajectories of disability in instrumental activities of daily living and disability-free life expectancy among middle-aged and older adults in Taiwan: an 11-year longitudinal study
Authors: Liao Wen-Ling , Chang Yu-Hung 
Published: December 2020

Abstract
Background
This study aims to identify the age trajectories of disability in instrumental activities of daily life (IADLs) over 11 years and their correlates, and to estimate disability-free life expectancy for identified trajectory groups in middle-aged and older adults.

Methods
We included 3118 participants aged 50 and over without IADL limitations at baseline from the Taiwan Longitudinal Study in Aging, followed across 1996–2007. We used group-based trajectory models to identify age trajectories of IADL disability, and multiple logistic regressions to examine their correlates. Sullivan method was used to compute IADL disability-free life expectancy for trajectory groups at different ages.

Results
We identified two trajectories groups: 67.7% of participants classified as the late-onset group and 32.3% as the early-onset group. Female (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.93, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.54, 2.41), not being employed (aOR: 1.30, 95% CI: 1,08, 1,56), poor/fair self-rated health (aOR: 1.31, 95% CI:1.09, 1.58), hypertension (aOR: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.07, 1.63), diabetes mellitus (aOR: 2.29, 95% CI: 1.72, 3.07), arthritis (aOR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.11, 1.81), stroke (aOR: 2.21, 95% CI: 1.04, 4.70), and one-point increase in a 10-item depression scale (aOR: 1.04, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.06) were associated with early-onset of disability, whereas higher education (aOR: 0.59, 95% CI: 0.42, 0.81), regular exercise (aOR: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.62, 0.93), and participating voluntary or club activities (aOR: 0.78, 95% CI: 0.65, 0.93) related to the late-onset. IADL disability-free life expectancies at 65 years old in the late-onset group were 15.6 years for women and 14.4 for men, respectively, comprising 56.6 and 64.2% of their remaining life, whereas those of the early-onset group were 4.8 and 4.6 years for women and men respectively, comprising 22.5 and 27.2% of remaining life.

Conclusions
Early-onset of IADLs disability may correlate to chronic conditions, and engagement in employment, exercise, and social participation were associated with a reduced risk of early disability in IADLs.
The epidemiology of tuberculosis-associated hyperglycemia in individuals newly screened for type 2 diabetes mellitus: systematic review and meta-analysis
Authors: Menon Sonia , Rossi Rodolfo , Dusabimana Alfred , Zdraveska Natasha , Bhattacharyya Samit , Francis Joel 
Published: December 2020

AbstractBackgroundThere is scarce evidence that tuberculosis (TB) can cause diabetes in those not previously known to be diabetic. Whilst the World Health Organization (WHO) recommends screening for Diabetes Mellitus (DM) at the onset of TB treatment, nevertheless, it remains to be elucidated which patients with TB-associated hyperglycemia are at higher risk for developing DM and stand to benefit from a more regular follow-up. This review aims to firstly quantify the reduction of newly detected hyperglycemia burden in TB patients who are on treatment over time; secondly, determine the burden of TB-associated hyperglycemia after follow-up, and thirdly, synthesize literature on risk factors for unresolved TB-associated hyperglycemia in previously undiagnosed individuals.MethodsWe searched PUBMED, EMBASE, SCOPUS, and Global Health for articles on TB-associated hyperglycemia up to September 30th, 2019. Search terms included Tuberculosis and hyperglycemia/DM, and insulin resistance. We appraised studies, extracted data, and conducted a meta-analysis to assess the change of the burden of hyperglycemia in prospective studies. The review is registered in the PROSPERO database (CRD42019118173).ResultsEleven studies were included in the meta-analysis yielding a total of 677 (27,3%) of patients with newly detected hyperglycemia at baseline. The mean quality score of eligible studies using the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale was 7.1 out of 9 (range 6-9). The pooled unresolved new cases of hyperglycemia at the end of follow up was 50% (95% CI: 36–64%) and the total pooled burden of hyperglycemia at 3–6 months of follow up was 11% (95% CI: 7–16%), with both estimates displaying a high heterogeneity, which remained significant after performing a sub-analysis by DM diagnostic method and 3 months of follow up. As only 2 studies explored risk factors for unresolved hyperglycemia, no meta-analysis was performed on risk factors.ConclusionOur meta-analysis showed that although in half of the patients with newly observed hyperglycemia at baseline, it remained unresolved at a follow-up of 3 to 6 months, the total burden of hyperglycemia is slightly above 10%, 3 months after initiating TB treatment. Studies are warranted to assess whether risk factors including HIV positivity, smoking, and extensive pulmonary TB disease put patients at higher risk for DM.
Radiological evaluation of malignant pleural mesothelioma - defining distant metastatic disease
Authors: Collins Dearbhaile Catherine , Sundar Raghav , Constantinidou Anastasia , Dolling David , Yap Timothy Anthony , Popat Sanjay , O’Brien Mary E. , Banerji Udai , de Bono Johann Sebastian , Lopez Juanita Suzanne , Tunariu Nina , Minchom Anna 
Published: December 2020

Abstract
Background
Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is traditionally characterized by local destructive spread of the pleura and surrounding tissues. Patient outcomes in MPM with distant metastatic dissemination are lacking.

Methods
In this retrospective study, we reviewed a cohort of 164 MPM patients referred to a Phase I trials unit, aiming to describe identified metastatic sites, and correlate with clinical outcomes.

Results
67% of patients were diagnosed with distant metastatic disease with a high incidence of bone (19%), visceral (14%), contralateral lung (35%) and peritoneal metastases (22%). Peritoneal metastases were more likely in epithelioid versus biphasic/ sarcomatoid MPM (p = 0.015). Overall survival was 23.8 months with no statistical difference in survival between those with distant metastases and those without.

Conclusions
This report highlights the frequency of distant metastases and encourages further radiological investigations in the presence of symptoms. In particular, given the relatively high incidence of bone metastases, bone imaging should be considered in advanced MPM clinical workflow and trial protocols. The presence of distant metastases does not appear to have prognostic implications under existing treatment paradigms. This cohort of MPM patients gives an indication of patterns of metastatic spread that are likely to become prevalent as prognosis improves with emerging treatment paradigms.
Management of uncomplicated malaria among children under five years at public and private sector facilities in Mali
Authors: Fomba Seydou , Koné Diakalia , Doumbia Bakary , Diallo Diadier , Druetz Thomas , Florey Lia , Eisele Thomas P. , Eckert Erin , Mihigo Jules , Ashton Ruth A. 
Published: December 2020

Abstract
Background
Prompt and effective malaria diagnosis and treatment is a cornerstone of malaria control. Case management guidelines recommend confirmatory testing of suspected malaria cases, then prescription of specific drugs for uncomplicated malaria and for severe malaria. This study aims to describe case management practices for children aged 1–59 months seeking treatment with current or recent fever from public and private, rural and urban health providers in Mali.

Methods
Data were collected at sites in Sikasso Region and Bamako. Health workers recorded key information from the consultation including malaria diagnostic testing and result, their final diagnosis, and all drugs prescribed. Children with signs of severe diseases were ineligible. Consultations were not independently observed. Appropriate case management was defined as both 1) tested for malaria using rapid diagnostic test or microscopy, and 2) receiving artemisinin combination therapy (ACT) and no other antimalarials if test-positive, or receiving no antimalarials if test-negative.

Results
Of 1602 participating children, 23.7% were appropriately managed, ranging from 5.3% at public rural facilities to 48.4% at community health worker sites. The most common reason for ‘inappropriate’ management was lack of malaria diagnostic testing (50.4% of children). Among children with confirmed malaria, 50.8% received a non-ACT antimalarial (commonly artesunate injection or artemether), either alone or in combination with ACT. Of 215 test-negative children, 44.2% received an antimalarial drug, most commonly ACT. Prescription of multiple drugs was common: 21.7% of all children received more than one type of antimalarial, while 51.9% received an antibiotic and antimalarial. Inappropriate case management increased in children with increasing axillary temperatures and those seeking care over weekends.

Conclusions
Multiple limitations in management of febrile children under five were identified, including inconsistent use of confirmatory testing and apparent use of severe malaria drugs for uncomplicated malaria. While we cannot confirm the reasons for these shortcomings, there is a need to address the high use of non-ACT antimalarials in this context; to minimize potential for drug resistance, reduce unnecessary expense, and preserve life-saving treatment for severe malaria cases. These findings highlight the challenge of managing febrile illness in young children in a high transmission setting.
Systematic literature review of the impact and effectiveness of monovalent meningococcal C conjugated vaccines when used in routine immunization programs
Authors: Tin Tin Htar Myint , Jackson Sally , Balmer Paul , Serra Lidia Cristina , Vyse Andrew , Slack Mary , Riera-Montes Margarita , Swerdlow David L. , Findlow Jamie 
Published: December 2020

Abstract
Background
Monovalent meningococcal C conjugate vaccine (MCCV) was introduced into the routine immunization program in many countries in Europe and worldwide following the emergence of meningococcal serogroup C (MenC) in the late 1990s. This systematic literature review summarizes the immediate and long-term impact and effectiveness of the different MCCV vaccination schedules and strategies employed.

Methods
We conducted a systematic literature search for peer-reviewed, scientific publications in the databases of MEDLINE (via PubMed), LILACS, and SCIELO. We included studies from countries where MCCV have been introduced in routine vaccination programs and studies providing the impact and effectiveness of MCCV published between 1st January 2001 and 31st October 2017.

Results
Forty studies were included in the review; 30 studies reporting impact and 17 reporting effectiveness covering 9 countries (UK, Spain, Italy, Canada, Brazil, Australia, Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands). Following MCCV introduction, significant and immediate reduction of MenC incidence was consistently observed in vaccine eligible ages in all countries with high vaccine uptake. The reduction in non-vaccine eligible ages (especially population > 65 years) through herd protection was generally observed 3–4 years following introduction. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) was mostly assessed through screening methods and ranged from 38 to 100%. The VE was generally highest during the first year after vaccination and waned over time. The VE was better maintained in countries employing catch-up campaigns in older children and adolescents, compared to routine infant only schedules.

Conclusions
MCCV were highly effective, showing a substantial and sustained decrease in MenC invasive meningococcal disease. The epidemiology of meningococcal disease is in constant transition, and some vaccination programs now include adolescents and higher valent vaccines due to the recent increase in cases caused by serogroups not covered by MCCV. Continuous monitoring of meningococcal disease is essential to understand disease evolution in the setting of different vaccination programs.
Emergency department syndromic surveillance systems: a systematic review
Authors: Hughes Helen E. , Edeghere Obaghe , O’Brien Sarah J. , Vivancos Roberto , Elliot Alex J. 
Published: December 2020

AbstractBackgroundSyndromic surveillance provides public health intelligence to aid in early warning and monitoring of public health impacts (e.g. seasonal influenza), or reassurance when an impact has not occurred. Using information collected during routine patient care, syndromic surveillance can be based on signs/symptoms/preliminary diagnoses. This approach makes syndromic surveillance much timelier than surveillance requiring laboratory confirmed diagnoses.The provision of healthcare services and patient access to them varies globally. However, emergency departments (EDs) exist worldwide, providing unscheduled urgent care to people in acute need. This provision of care makes ED syndromic surveillance (EDSyS) a potentially valuable tool for public health surveillance internationally.The objective of this study was to identify and describe the key characteristics of EDSyS systems that have been established and used globally.MethodsWe systematically reviewed studies published in peer review journals and presented at International Society of Infectious Disease Surveillance conferences (up to and including 2017) to identify EDSyS systems which have been created and used for public health purposes. Search criteria developed to identify “emergency department” and “syndromic surveillance” were applied toNICE healthcare, Global HealthandScopusdatabases.ResultsIn total, 559 studies were identified as eligible for inclusion in the review, comprising 136 journal articles and 423 conference abstracts/papers. From these studies we identified 115 EDSyS systems in 15 different countries/territories across North America, Europe, Asia and Australasia. Systems ranged from local surveillance based on a single ED, to comprehensive national systems. National EDSyS systems were identified in 8 countries/territories: 2 reported inclusion of ≥85% of ED visits nationally (France and Taiwan).ConclusionsEDSyS provides a valuable tool for the identification and monitoring of trends in severe illness. Technological advances, particularly in the emergency care patient record, have enabled the evolution of EDSyS over time. EDSyS reporting has become closer to ‘real-time’, with automated, secure electronic extraction and analysis possible on a daily, or more frequent basis.The dissemination of methods employed and evidence of successful application to public health practice should be encouraged to support learning from best practice, enabling future improvement, harmonisation and collaboration between systems in future.Prospero numberCRD42017069150.
The effect of climate variables on the incidence of Crimean Congo Hemorrhagic Fever (CCHF) in Zahedan, Iran
Authors: Nili Sairan , Khanjani Narges , Jahani Yunes , Bakhtiari Bahram 
Published: December 2020

Abstract
Background
The Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is endemic in Iran and has a high fatality rate. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between CCHF incidence and meteorological variables in Zahedan district, which has a high incidence of this disease.

Methods
Data about meteorological variables and CCHF incidence was inquired from 2010 to 2017 for Zahedan district. The analysis was performed using univariate and multivariate Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models and Generalized Additive Models (GAM) using R software. AIC, BIC and residual tests were used to test the goodness of fit of SARIMA models, and R2 was used to select the best model in GAM/GAMM.

Results
During the years under study, 190 confirmed cases of CCHF were identified in Zahedan district. The fatality rate of the disease was 8.42%. The disease trend followed a seasonal pattern. The results of multivariate SARIMA showed the (0,1,1) (0,1,1)12 model with maximum monthly temperature lagged 5 months, forecasted the disease better than other models. In the GAM, monthly average temperature lagged 5 months, and the monthly minimum of relative humidity and total monthly rainfall without lag, had a nonlinear relation with the incidence of CCHF.

Conclusions
Meteorological variables can affect CCHF occurrence.
COVID-19 related concerns of people with long-term respiratory conditions: a qualitative study
Authors: Philip Keir E. J. , Lonergan Bradley , Cumella Andrew , Farrington-Douglas Joe , Laffan Michael , Hopkinson Nicholas S. 
Published: December 2020

Abstract
Background
The COVID-19 pandemic is having profound psychological impacts on populations globally, with increasing levels of stress, anxiety, and depression being reported, especially in people with pre-existing medical conditions who appear to be particularly vulnerable. There are limited data on the specific concerns people have about COVID-19 and what these are based on.

Methods
The aim of this study was to identify and explore the concerns of people with long-term respiratory conditions in the UK regarding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and how these concerns were affecting them. We conducted a thematic analysis of free text responses to the question “What are your main concerns about getting coronavirus?”, which was included in the British Lung Foundation/Asthma UK (BLF-AUK) partnership COVID-19 survey, conducted between the 1st and 8th of April 2020. This was during the 3rd week of the UK’s initial ‘social distancing measures’ which included advice to stay at home and only go outside for specific limited reasons.

Results
7039 responses were analysed, with respondents from a wide range of age groups (under 17 to over 80), gender, and all UK nations. Respondents reported having asthma (85%), COPD (9%), bronchiectasis (4%), interstitial lung disease (2%), or ‘other’ lung diseases (e.g. lung cancer) (1%). Four main themes were identified: (1) vulnerability to COVID-19; (2) anticipated experience of contracting COVID-19; (3) pervasive uncertainty; and (4) inadequate national response.

Conclusions
The COVID-19 pandemic is having profound psychological impacts. The concerns we identified largely reflect contextual factors, as well as their subjective experience of the current situation. Hence, key approaches to reducing these concerns require changes to the reality of their situation, and are likely to include (1) helping people optimise their health, limit risk of infection, and access necessities; (2) minimising the negative experience of disease where possible, (3) providing up-to-date, accurate and consistent information, (4) improving the government and healthcare response.
Prognostic value of inflammatory markers for detecting anastomotic leakage after esophageal resection
Authors: Liesenfeld Lukas F. , Sauer Peter , Diener Markus K. , Hinz Ulf , Schmidt Thomas , Müller-Stich Beat P. , Hackert Thilo , Büchler Markus W. , Schaible Anja 
Published: December 2020

Abstract
Background
Early diagnosis of anastomotic leakage (AL) after esophageal resection is crucial for the successful management of this complication. Inflammatory serological markers are indicators of complications during the postoperative course. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the prognostic value of routine inflammatory markers to predict anastomotic leakage after transthoracic esophageal resection.

Methods
Data from all consecutive patients undergoing transthoracic esophageal resection between January 2010 and December 2016 were analyzed from a prospective database. Besides clinicodemographic parameters, C-reactive protein, white blood cell count and albumin were analyzed and the Noble/Underwood (NUn) score was calculated to evaluate their predictive value for postoperative anastomotic leakage. Diagnostic accuracy was measured by sensitivity, specificity, and negative and positive predictive values using area under the receiver operator characteristics curve.

Results
Overall, 233 patients with transthoracic esophageal resection were analyzed, 30-day mortality in this group was 3.4%. 57 patients (24.5%) suffered from AL, 176 patients were in the AL negative group. We found significant differences in WBCC, CRP and NUn scores between patients with and without AL, but the analyzed markers did not show an independent relevant prognostic value. For CRP levels below 155 mg/dl from POD3 to POD 7 the negative predictive value for absence of AI was > 80%. Highest diagnostic accuracy was detected for CRP levels on 4th POD with a cut-off value of 145 mg/l reaching negative predictive value of 87%.

Conclusions
In contrast to their prognostic value in other surgical procedures, CRP, WBCC and NUn score cannot be recommended as independent markers for the prediction of anastomotic leakage after transthoracic esophageal resection. CRP is an accurate negative predictive marker and discrimination of AL and no-AL may be helpful for postoperative clinical management.
Trial registration The study was approved by the local ethical committee (S635-2013).