bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
COMPARING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF ONE- AND TWO-STEP CONDITIONAL LOGIT MODELS FOR PREDICTING OUTCOMES IN A SPECULATIVE MARKET
Authors: Sung M , Johnson J E V 
Published: August 2020

This paper compares two approaches to predicting outcomes in a speculative market, the horse race betting market. In particular, the nature of one-and two-step conditional logit procedures involving a process for exploding the choices et are outlined, their strengths and weaknesses are compared and the irrelative effectiveness is evaluated by predicting winning probabilities for horse races at a UK racetrack. The models incorporate variables which are widely recognised as having predictive power and which should therefore be effectively discounted in market odds. Despite this handicap, both approaches produce probability estimates which can be used to earn positive returns, but the two-step approach yields substantially higher profits.
FINANCIAL BINARY BETTING, STYLES, VALUATIONS AND DEDUCTIONS FROM DATA
Authors: Oliver Peter 
Published: August 2020

A relatively new form of financial spread betting, the binary bet, has become popular. Part of the popularity of this style of bet, from the gambler’s point of view, is undoubtedly due to the simplicity and transparency of the contracts. The fact that these bets are free at the time they are taken is an added inducement. For the bet provider, as long as the correct buy and sell levels are maintained during the betting period and the betting frequency on any contract is high, it is again relatively simple to ensure a known income from the operation.Binary spread bets are examples of financial derivatives and the standard methods used in that field can be used to deduce the parameters that should apply. This gives useful information to the gamblers in telling them how much they are paying for the bet. Watching how the quotes are moving in time can also inform how the gambling community is behaving and what the average view of the outcome is.A variety of types of binary bets are valued and in many cases it is possible to derive analytic formulas. These can be applied to time series data that are acquired from quotes and used to deduce information about the bets held by a provider and the market expectations of the community.
THE CHALLENGE OF INCENTIVE ALIGNMENT IN THE APPLICATION OF INFORMATION MARKETS WITHIN AN ORGANIZATION
Authors: Hall Art 
Published: August 2020

Prediction markets have captured the imagination of business thinkers—much like chaos theory captured it a decade ago. The urge is to apply prediction markets to a host of business challenges just like the urge was to apply insights of chaos theory to business challenges. However, the intelligent application of prediction markets within organizations may be no easier than the intelligent application of chaos theory to business strategy.I have chosen the comparison to chaos theory for two reasons. First, the excitement about prediction markets seems to me to have the same type of buzz that chaos theory carried in the late 1990s. Second, and more to the point, Jim Lavoie’s reference to the business potential of Web 2.0 tools arguably offers a platform for capturing some of the more realistic goals of those who once urged businesses to operate “on the edge of chaos”—as captured by the title of this popular-audience book: Surfing the Edge of Chaos: The Laws of Nature and the New Laws of Business.
AN EXAMINATION OF PREDICTION MARKET EFFICIENCY: NBA CONTRACTS ON TRADESPORTS
Authors: Borghesi Richard 
Published: August 2020

In this paper I examine the absolute and relative price efficiency of NBA options listed on Tradesports.com. I find that contracts within specific price bands are misvalued, but also demonstrate that this market is more efficient than is the market for NFL options. Specifically, I show that contracts priced around $25 win (expire at $100) at a rate less than expected, while those priced around $75 win at a rate greater than expected. The magnitudes of these deviations between prices and fundamental values are less than those in the NFL market. Also, while prior theoretical work predicts that low-priced contracts should be overpriced, I instead find that NBA contracts priced near $2.50 win more frequently than expected.I thank Rob Dougherty and Brijesh Patel for assistance with the NBA event data, and Leighton Vaughan Williams for meaningful suggestions throughout. Any errors are strictly my own.
THE EFFECT OF CONTRACT STRUCTURE ON PREDICTION MARKET PRICE BIASES
Authors: Borghesi Richard 
Published: August 2020

Prediction markets add value when they produce unbiased forecasts. However, several prior studies find persistent biases when examining prediction market sides contracts. Sides contracts represent bets on whether the score differential between two teams in a contest will be greater or less than a stated value. We propose that inferences generated from examining Tradesports’ sides contracts may be problematic because they are framed exclusively with respect to favorites. If a favorite-longshot (or reverse favorite-longshot) bias causes these deviations from rationality, it may be that non-sports-related (e.g., internal corporate) prediction markets assets do not suffer from the same shortcomings. To evaluate the generalizability of prior findings, we contrast the price efficiency of Tradesports’ sides and totals contracts. In totals wagers, traders take a position on whether the combine score of both teams in a game will be above or below a stated value. We find that the fundamental structural differences between totals contracts and sides contracts partly determine differences in price efficiencies. Relative to those in the sides market, some price biases in the totals market are significantly smaller in magnitude, and others are absent altogether. Results indicate that contract structure plays a significant role in the ability of prediction markets to produce unbiased estimates.
A STATISTICAL ARBITRAGE TRADE BASED ON BETTING PRICE VOLATILITY
Authors: Brown Alistair 
Published: August 2020

In this note, I derive a probability measure for betting prices on an exchange reaching a target level prior to the market closing. This allows a bettor to take a long (short) position on a bet, and calculate the probability that the short (long) price will yield a profit before the market closes. In effect, this facilitates the statistical arbitrage of betting price volatility.
FORENSIC SPORTS ANALYTICS: DETECTING AND PREDICTING MATCH-FIXING IN TENNIS
Authors: Rodenberg Ryan , Feustel Elihu D. 
Published: August 2020

Despite some degree of lingering friction between sports leagues and wagering, the eradication of corruption in sports is one issue in which the interests of sports governing bodies, reputable gambling businesses, entities affiliated with the sports industry, and law enforcement are allied. This paper aims to: (i) detect match-fixing corruption in tennis and (ii) predict such match-fixing before it occurs. We first compare proxy measures of effort in fair matches versus possibly unfair matches – matches played in the first round, where wagering-induced manipulation is more likely. The results show that players exert less effort (tanking) in the first round, even when adjusting for the slightly greater difference in skill level in such matches. We next determine whether the gambling markets were able to identify fixing, tanking, or other types of manipulation before the match was played. Using two predictive tennis models (ELO, Common-Opponent) to determine the fair trading price of a tennis match, we find prima facie evidence of the betting markets being affected, with an average of 23 matches per year likely being manipulated or outright fixed each year. Finally, we determine whether fixed matches can be identified before they are played using predictive modeling and by observing real-time market price changes. We conclude that when the betting price has a large irrational move away from the fair model-predicted price, the move is indicative of a fixed match before it is played.
Testing for Dependency, Autocorrelation and Weak Information Efficiency in Horse Race Rankings Time Series
Authors: Linden Mikael 
Published: August 2020

Time series of horse trotting race outcomes (rankings) are analysed and tested with time series methods. Horse race rankings are low valued integers that are typical for Poisson processes. Testing for temporal independency in rankings series is conducted with different tests. We focus on 456 series - both on observed and on expected rankings (odds) - and show that close to 40% of analysed observed series and close to 20% of expected series have significant, mainly non-negative, autocorrelations. These are not sensitive to the average ranking levels that the horses have obtained across the races they have finished. In average the observed rankings series show larger persistence than expected rankings. The close relationship between observed and expected rankings and non-independency results imply that a typical weak-form of information efficiency or forecast unbiasedness testing framework can be applied to horse level rankings series. Interestingly some information efficiency results are found mainly under maintained hypothesis, the difference between observed and expected rankings. It is argued that OLS methods are not necessary suitable in this context as the rankings series are integer valued and expected rankings are sensitive to bettors’ risk aversion.
Ideas Markets: A Literature Review and Classification Scheme
Authors: McDonagh Eoin , Buckley Patrick 
Published: August 2020

Prediction markets have been positioned in the literature as efficient and scalable information aggregation mechanisms. The increasing interest in the use of market mechanisms to enable decision making has led to attempts to use these mechanisms to stimulate innovation in a number of organisational contexts. These tools, usually referred to as Ideas Markets are seen as a potentially powerful method of sourcing and evaluating new ideas. Whereas traditional Prediction Markets allow participants to trade on the outcome of uncertain future events, Ideas Markets’ provide a platform for the generation and evaluation of ideas through the trading of virtual stocks representing products and concepts. In this paper, we study the evolution of research on Idea Markets though a comprehensive literature review. We develop a classification scheme, which enables thorough analysis of current trends within Ideas Markets research. Our results show that case studies detailing corporate applications of Ideas Markets dominate the current literature. The paper contributes by providing a comprehensive guide to the extant literature on Ideas Markets. This serves a number of purposes, including providing practitioners and academics with a convenient bibliography of the current literature. The issues highlighted by this literature review also serve to both motivate and enable further research.
Using Prediction Market Prices to Differentiate Factors that Influence the Highest and Lowest Priced Tickets in Dynamic Pricing for Major League Baseball
Authors: Paul Rodney , Weinbach Andrew 
Published: August 2020

The use of prediction markets is extended to explain differences in preferences of fans that purchase different price levels of tickets under dynamic pricing for Major League Baseball. Using data from eleven teams, this research investigates similarities and differences in variables that affect ticket prices for the highest-priced and lowest-priced tickets. Key contrasts between the groups are found to stem from distinct preferences for uncertainty of outcome, measured by betting market odds, and team quality. It is also shown that differences between the groups are attributable to sensitivity to factors such as key opponents, weekend games, opening day, and temperature.
Private Information, Overconfidence and Trader Returns in Prediction Markets
Authors: Goins Sheila , Cipriano Michael , Gruca Thomas S 
Published: August 2020

In lab experiments on the value of information in financial markets, groups of “insiders” are randomly chosen to receive perfect information. However, in typical (non-experimental) financial markets, investors often engage in extensive fundamental analysis, a process which may result in over-confidence in one’s private information. In this study, we examine trading volume, prices and trader returns in a set of four real money prediction markets where the values of securities are tied to a movie’s box office performance. Before the markets opened, every trader submitted a detailed forecast of the movie’s future performance. Therefore, all traders have self-generated private information, the accuracy of which can only be known ex-post. As expected, the volume and timing of trading were consistent with over-confidence. In three of the four markets, contract prices were consistent with the prior information equilibrium. In those three markets, traders whose forecast was associated with the winning contract had significantly higher returns than traders whose forecasts suggested that another contract would pay off. In the other market, there were no significant differences in returns across trader groups. This research suggests that when traders are overconfident and trade accordingly, there can value to being better informed if the information is accurate.
Osteopathic Manipulative Treatment for a Recognizable Pattern of Somatic Dysfunction Following Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy
Authors: Mills Mandalyn , Sevensma Karlin , Serrano Jamie 
Published: August 2020

AbstractContextPrevious literature has demonstrated the prevalence and socioeconomic impact of postoperative pain in surgery patients. Somatic dysfunction has been demonstrated as a cause, but literature documenting osteopathic manipulative treatment (OMT) in surgery patients is lacking.ObjectiveTo describe typical patterns of and common treatments for somatic dysfunction in patients following laparoscopic cholecystectomy.MethodsThe authors retrospectively reviewed the billing records of all patients over 18 years of age who underwent laparoscopic cholecystectomy by a single surgeon and had postoperative outpatient OMT for right-side pain linked to somatic dysfunction between 2006 and 2018 at a community hospital in Grand Rapids, Michigan. Patients who underwent open cholecystectomy, who did not have documented somatic dysfunction, or had somatic dysfunction unrelated to their biliary disease were excluded.ResultsNine patients were selected for inclusion in this retrospective case series. All patients in the study demonstrated anterior right lower rib pain corresponding to posterior lower rib dysfunctions and rotated right and side-bent left thoracic spine dysfunctions between T5 and T11. Pain was successfully managed with muscle energy, high-velocity, low-amplitude, or soft tissue OMT.ConclusionPostoperative pain following laparoscopic cholecystectomy can be related to right-sided thoracic and rib dysfunctions. This is important for early diagnosis of surgical patients with somatic dysfunction and initiation of appropriate OMT to decrease morbidity related to pain, functional status, and quality of life.
HPLC profiling of selected phenolic acids and flavonoids in Salvia eigii, Salvia hierosolymitana and Salvia viridis growing wild in Jordan and their in vitro antioxidant activity
Authors: Al-Jaber Hala I. , Shakya Ashok K. , Elagbar Zaha A. 
Published: August 2020

Background
Salvia eigii., Salvia hierosolymitana and Salvia viridis are native to the Mediterranean region, and are used in traditional medicine for the treatment of many ailments. In the current investigation, the methanolic extracts obtained from the air dried aerial parts of S. eigii, S. hierosolymitana and S. viridis from Jordan were screened for their total phenolics content (TPC), total flavonoids content (TFC) and their in vitro antioxidant activity. Additionally, the presence of four bioactive phenolic acids including gallic acid, caffeic acid, rosmarinic acid and salvianolic acid B and other seven flavonoids including luteolin-7-O-glucoside, apigenin, apigenin-7-O-glucoside, rutin, nariginin, hesperidin and quercetin was determined using Liquid chromatography-Electron Spray Ionization-Tandom Mass Spectrometry (LC-ESI-MS/MS).

Methods
Antioxidant activity of the obtained three extracts were examined via the DPPH•, ABTS• + radical scavenging methods in addition to Ferrous Ion Chelating (FIC) effect. TFC and TPC of the extracts were measured using the aluminum chloride colorimetric method and the Folin-Ciocalteau method, respectively. The presence and concentration of the selected 11 compounds was further determined through LC-ESI-MS/MS.

Results
The results indicated that three Salvia species had high total flavonoids content expressed in mg quercetin/g dry extract (S. heirosolymitana: 770.85 ± 5.26; S. eigii: 520.60 ± 6.24, S. viridis: 311.36 ± 4.41). S. heirosolymitana had the highest DPPH• activity (0.184 ± 1.22 × 10−2 mg/ml) and FIC effect (0.354 ± 0.018 mg/ml). S. heirosolymitana had slightly higher ABTS• + scavenging activity than S. eigii (0.176 ± 1.16 × 10−2 mg/ml; 0.183 ± 0.031 mg/ml, respectively). All 11 compounds were detected in the extracts of the three Salvia species. Luteolin-7-O-glucoside was detected in high concentration levels in the three species (1756.73, 21651.36, and 26125.14 mg/kg dry plant; S. eigii, S. hierosolyimitana and S. viridis, respectively), yet rosmarinic acid had the highest contribution to both S. hierosolymitana (27124.93 mg/kg) and S. eigii (15783.33 mg/kg). Notably, S. hierosolymitana and S. viridis contained salvianolic acid B (896.11; 890.9 mg/kg).

Conclusions
The three Salvia species exhibited good antioxidant activity, especially S. heirosolymitana due to its high TPC, TFC, and the presence of high concentration levels of romarinic acid and other phenolic acids and flavonoids. This is the first phytochemical and antioxidant evaluation of S. eigii, S. hierosolymitana and S. viridis from Jordan. Prior to this investigation, no phytochemical investigation on S. eigii was reported.
Increased BMI and Waist Circumference are Related to Increased DNA Damage in Women with Overweight and Metabolic Syndrome
Authors: Talon Lidiana de Camargo , Ferraz Ana Paula Costa Rodrigues , Pierine Damiana Tortolero , Minatel Igor Otávio , Garcia Jéssica Leite , Nogueira Vânia dos Santos Nunes- , Ferron Artur Junio Togneri , Santos Klinsmann Carolo dos , Ferron Fabiane Valentini Francisqueti- , Corrêa Camila Renata 
Published: August 2020

Aims: To test if the level of oxidative stress is different in women with overweight and with metabolic syndrome.
Study Design: Cross- sectional.
Place and Duration of Study: Endocrinology Clinic of the Botucatu Medical School- UNESP, between March 2013 and March 2014.
Methodology: Eighty women (31.15 ± 7.91 years old) attended at the Endocrinology Clinic of the Botucatu Medical School- UNESP composed this study. According to the body mass index (BMI) they were divided in 3 groups: Group 1 (G1, n=36 eutrophic); Group 2 (G2, n=21 overweight) and Group 3 (G3, n=23 women with MS-Metabolic syndrome). It was evaluated: dietary intake of macro and micronutrients dietary; antioxidant capacity (HAC) of plasma and levels of malondialdehyde (MDA); carotenoids, retinol and α-tocopherol in peripheral lymphocytes and the comet assay.
Results: Damage to DNA, oxidized purines and the levels of MDA didn’t differ between women with overweight and with metabolic syndrome but they are higher than those in the control group. Correlation was positive for BMI and waist circumference (WC) with damage to DNA. Linear regression showed that higher consumption of protein and sodium is related to damage to DNA and both carotenoids and omega- 3 are protectors.
Conclusion: Damage to DNA occurs independent of overweight or obesity and WC could be a predictor for damage to DNA.
Nutritional Value of Two Underutilized Wild Plant Leaves Consumed as Food in Northern Angola: Mondia whitei and Pyrenacantha klaineana
Authors: Mawunu M. , Pedro M. , Lautenschläger T. , Biduayi F. M. , Kapepula P. M. , Ngbolua K. N. , Luyeye F. L. , Luyindula N. 
Published: August 2020

Background/Aims: Traditional edible plants are good sources of minerals, fibers, proteins and others useful phytochemicals for human nutrition and health. Mondia whitei and Pyrenacantha klaineana leaves are underutilized, wild edible plants considered as food and spice in habitants in some part of Northern Angola. The aim of this study was to investigate the nutritional value and mineral contents of M. whitei and P. klaineana leaves.
Materials and Methods: The leaves were harvested from a forest. The samples were analyzed for proximate and mineral contents using the standard methods. The results were analyzed statistically using mean and standard deviation.
Results: The proximate composition of M. whitei raw and cooked leaves showed that the samples had ranged of ash, 9.53 - 12.93%, fiber 13.16 - 15.11%, protein 16.48 - 19.24%, fat 2.95 - 4.94%, carbohydrates 51.59 - 54.48% and energy (kcal) 310.39 - 326.10 in 100 g respectively. The proximate composition of P. klaineana raw and cooked leaves showed that the samples had range of ash, 4.13 - 6.74%, fiber 40.45 - 43.56%, protein 14.93 - 18.80%, fat 1.13 - 3.78%, carbohydrates 29.74 - 36.58% and energy (kcal) 217.77 - 227.88 in 100 g respectively. The mineral contents of the P. klaineana raw leaves, K 2459.20 mg, Ca 2126.33 mg, P 239.90 mg, Se 77.86 mg are richer than M. whitei raw leaves, K 1149.83 mg, Ca 844.87 mg, P 175.89 mg, etc. Conversely, the leaves of M. whitei are richer in Se 87.80 mg and Cu 3.14 mg/ 100 g than the P. klaineana (Se 77.86 and Cu 2.84 mg/100 g).
Conclusion: The wild edible leaves are rich in nutritional value and mineral composition such as fiber, protein, Ca, Fe, K, Mn, Mg, P, Se etc. The consumption of M. whitei and P. klaineana leaves should be vulgarized to nutrition, diversity diet and food security.
Potential stocks of reef fish‐based ecosystem services in the Kuroshio Current region: Their relationship with latitude and biodiversity
Authors: Sato Masaaki , Nakamura Yohei , Hori Masakazu 
Published: August 2020

AbstractThe latitudinal decline of species richness is a general spatial pattern of biodiversity, and it applies to marine species as well. Based on a latitudinal gradient of marine species richness, potential stocks of marine ecosystem services are expected to be higher in lower latitudes through increment in biodiversity. However, little is known about the relationships of the marine ecosystem services with latitude and biodiversity. We estimated the latitudinal patterns and relationships with the biodiversity of potential stocks of three major reef fish‐based ecosystem services (fisheries production, aquarium fish production, and recreational diving) at ten coral habitats from tropical to temperate zones in the Kuroshio Current region (8°37′N–33°24′N) using field survey data and information from relevant websites and administrative statistics. We found a latitudinal declin from south to north in potential stocks of aquarium fish production and diving in this region, whereas the peaks of fisheries production were found around both tropical and sub‐tropical zones. Our results also showed strong positive effects of biodiversity on potential stocks of the three ecosystem services, highlighting the importance of conserving diverse fish species to sustain multiple services at high levels. Broad spatial patterns of the reef fish‐based ecosystem services are useful as baselines for future evaluation of their changes. As the effects of climate change on reef fishes are predicted to vary among different latitude zones, our estimates of the ecosystem services infer specific management and economic actions for the respective zones against climate change.