bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Interactions between Increasing CO2 and Antarctic Melt Rates
Authors: Mackie Shona , Smith Inga J. , Stevens David P. , Ridley Jeff K. , Langhorne Patricia J. 
Published: August 2020

AbstractMeltwater from the Antarctic ice sheet is expected to increase the sea ice extent. However, such an expansion may be moderated by sea ice decline associated with global warming. Here we investigate the relative balance of these two processes through experiments using HadGEM3-GC3.1 and compare these to two standard idealized CMIP6 experiments. Our results show that the decline in sea ice projected under scenarios of increasing CO2may be inhibited by simultaneously increasing melt fluxes. We find that Antarctic Bottom Water formation, projected to decline as CO2increases, is likely to decline further with an increasing meltwater flux. In our simulations, the response of the westerly wind jet to increasing CO2is enhanced when the meltwater flux increases, resulting in a stronger peak wind stress than is found when either CO2or melt rates increase exclusively. We find that the sensitivity of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to increasing melt fluxes in the Southern Ocean is countered by increasing CO2, removing or reducing a feedback mechanism that may otherwise allow more heat to be transported to the polar regions and drive increasing ice shelf melt rates. The insights presented here and in a companion paper (which focuses on the effect of increasing melt fluxes under preindustrial forcings) provide insights helpful to the interpretation of both future climate projections and sensitivity studies into the effect of increasing melt fluxes from the Antarctic ice sheet when different forcing scenarios are used.
Direct Temporal Cascade of Temperature Variance in Eddy-Permitting Simulations of Multidecadal Variability
Authors: Hochet Antoine , Huck Thierry , Arzel Olivier , Sévellec Florian , Colin de Verdière Alain , Mazloff Matthew , Cornuelle Bruce 
Published: August 2020

AbstractThe North Atlantic is characterized by basin-scale multidecadal fluctuations of the sea surface temperature with periods ranging from 20 to 70 years. One candidate for such a variability is a large-scale baroclinic instability of the temperature gradients across the Atlantic associated with the North Atlantic Current. Because of the long time scales involved, most of the studies devoted to this problem are based on low-resolution numerical models leaving aside the effect of explicit mesoscale eddies. How high-frequency motions associated with the mesoscale eddy field affect the basin-scale low-frequency variability is the central question of this study. This issue is addressed using an idealized configuration of an ocean general circulation model at eddy-permitting resolution (20 km). A new diagnostic allowing the calculation of nonlinear fluxes of temperature variance in frequency space is presented. Using this diagnostic, we show that the primary effect of mesoscale eddies is to damp low-frequency temperature variance and to transfer it to high frequencies.
Australian Precipitation Recycling and Evaporative Source Regions
Authors: Holgate C. M. , Evans J. P. , van Dijk A. I. J. M. , Pitman A. J. , Di Virgilio G. 
Published: August 2020

AbstractThe relative importance of atmospheric advection and local land–atmosphere coupling to Australian precipitation is uncertain. Identifying the evaporative source regions and level of precipitation recycling can help quantify the importance of local and remote marine and terrestrial moisture to precipitation within the different hydroclimates across Australia. Using a three-dimensional Lagrangian back-trajectory approach, moisture from precipitation events across Australia during 1979–2013 was tracked to determine the source of moisture (the evaporative origin) and level of precipitation recycling. We show that source regions vary markedly for precipitation falling in different regions. Advected marine moisture was relatively more important than terrestrial contributions for precipitation in all regions and seasons. For Australia as a whole, contributions from precipitation recycling varied from ~11% in winter up to ~21% in summer. The strongest land–atmosphere coupling was in the northwest and southeast where recycled local land evapotranspiration accounted for an average of 9% of warm-season precipitation. Marine contributions to precipitation in the northwest of Australia increased in spring and, coupled with positive evaporation trends in the key source regions, suggest that the observed precipitation increase is the result of intensified evaporation in the Maritime Continent and Indian and Pacific Oceans. Less clear were the processes behind an observed shift in moisture contribution from winter to summer in southeastern Australia. Establishing the climatological source regions and the magnitude of moisture recycling enables future investigation of anomalous precipitation during extreme periods and provides further insight into the processes driving Australia’s variable precipitation.
Dependence of Beaufort Sea Low Ice Condition in the Summer of 1998 on Ice Export in the Prior Winter
Authors: Zhang Yongli , Wei Hao , Lu Youyu , Luo Xiaofan , Hu Xianmin , Zhao Wei 
Published: August 2020

AbstractFour events of distinctly low summer ice coverage in the Beaufort Sea, in 1998, 2008, 2012, and 2016, have been identified using satellite-observed concentration between 1979 and 2017. Previous studies have revealed that these four minima were impacted by preconditioning of the ice cover, and specifically the 1998 event was preconditioned toward thinner ice by anomalous southeasterly winds during winter. This study further investigates the 1998 event through analyzing the solution of a coupled ocean and sea ice model. Compared with the mean condition during 1995–2015, the net ice loss in the melt season (May–September) of 1998 was not particularly high. In the preceding fall (October–December 1997), the ice conditions and processes contributing to ice changes were neither significantly different from the mean condition nor unique in the time series during 1995–2015. In the preceding winter (January–April 1998), over the southeastern part of the Beaufort Sea, the ice was 1.5 m thinner than the mean condition on average, and the increase in ice thickness due to freezing was nearly offset by the decrease due to lateral advection, which was the result of high westward ice export and limited southerly import. The dynamic process in preceding winter was also the cause of low ice in summer 2016 according to a recent study. Model analyses suggest that the 2008 event was due to the small regional ice volume at the end of summer 2007 and ice export during the preceding fall, whereas the 2012 event was caused by the excessive summer melting.
Processes Shaping the Frontal-Scale Time-Mean Surface Wind Convergence Patterns around the Gulf Stream and Agulhas Return Current in Winter
Authors: Masunaga Ryusuke , Nakamura Hisashi , Taguchi Bunmei , Miyasaka Takafumi 
Published: August 2020

ABSTRACTHigh-resolution satellite observations and numerical experiments have revealed local enhancement of time-mean surface wind convergence along the axes of warm western boundary currents and divergence slightly poleward. A recent study has suggested that frequent occurrence of persistent atmospheric fronts and sea level pressure (SLP) troughs along a sea surface temperature (SST) front are responsible for shaping the frontal-scale wind convergence and divergence contrast as seen in the wintertime climatology near the Kuroshio Extension (KE). These events tend to induce surface wind convergence with moderate magnitude. Through atmospheric reanalysis with high-resolution SST, the present study reveals that, as in the vicinity of the KE, surface wind convergence with moderate magnitude and divergence with moderate-to-extreme magnitude are found to play a primary role in shaping the climatological-mean wind convergence–divergence contrasts across the SST fronts near the Gulf Stream (GS) and Agulhas Return Current (ARC) in winter. In contrast, strong-to-extreme convergence events associated with synoptic-scale atmospheric disturbances are found to yield horizontally uniform time-mean wind convergence. Furthermore, cluster analysis and case studies suggest that persistent atmospheric fronts and SLP troughs are responsible for inducing moderate wind convergence also near the GS and ARC. Thus, these features are consistent with their counterpart near the KE, but the impacts of the ARC tend to be substantially weaker, probably due to its cooler SST among other potential factors.
U.K. Climate Projections: Summer Daytime and Nighttime Urban Heat Island Changes in England’s Major Cities
Authors: Eunice Lo Y. T. , Mitchell Daniel M. , Bohnenstengel Sylvia I. , Collins Mat , Hawkins Ed , Hegerl Gabriele C. , Joshi Manoj , Stott Peter A. 
Published: August 2020

AbstractIn the United Kingdom, where 90% of residents are projected to live in urban areas by 2050, projecting changes in urban heat islands (UHIs) is essential to municipal adaptation. Increased summer temperatures are linked to increased mortality. Using the new regional U.K. Climate Projections, UKCP18-regional, we estimate the 1981–2079 trends in summer urban and rural near-surface air temperatures and in UHI intensities during day and at night in the 10 most populous built-up areas in England. Summer temperatures increase by 0.45°–0.81°C per decade under RCP8.5, depending on the time of day and location. Nighttime temperatures increase more in urban than rural areas, enhancing the nighttime UHI by 0.01°–0.05°C per decade in all cities. When these upward UHI signals emerge from 2008–18 variability, positive summer nighttime UHI intensities of up to 1.8°C are projected in most cities. However, we can prevent most of these upward nighttime UHI signals from emerging by stabilizing climate to the Paris Agreement target of 2°C above preindustrial levels. In contrast, daytime UHI intensities decrease in nine cities, at rates between −0.004° and −0.05°C per decade, indicating a trend toward a reduced daytime UHI effect. These changes reflect different feedbacks over urban and rural areas and are specific to UKCP18-regional. Future research is important to better understand the drivers of these UHI intensity changes.
Radiative Effects of Clouds and Water Vapor on an Axisymmetric Monsoon
Authors: Byrne Michael P. , Zanna Laure 
Published: August 2020

AbstractMonsoons are summertime circulations shaping climates and societies across the tropics and subtropics. Here the radiative effects controlling an axisymmetric monsoon and its response to climate change are investigated using aquaplanet simulations. The influences of clouds, water vapor, and CO2 on the axisymmetric monsoon are decomposed using the radiation-locking technique. Seasonal variations in clouds and water vapor strongly modulate the axisymmetric monsoon, reducing net precipitation by approximately half. Warming and moistening of the axisymmetric monsoon by seasonal longwave cloud and water vapor effects are counteracted by a strong shortwave cloud effect. The shortwave cloud effect also expedites onset of the axisymmetric monsoon by approximately two weeks, whereas longwave cloud and water vapor effects delay onset. A conceptual model relates the timing of monsoon onset to the efficiency of surface cooling. In climate change simulations CO2 forcing and the water vapor feedback have similar influences on the axisymmetric monsoon, warming the surface and moistening the region. In contrast, clouds have a negligible effect on surface temperature yet dominate the monsoon circulation response. A new perspective for understanding how cloud radiative effects shape the monsoon circulation response to climate change is introduced. The radiation-locking simulations and analyses advance understanding of how radiative processes influence an axisymmetric monsoon, and establish a framework for interpreting monsoon–radiation coupling in observations, in state-of-the-art models, and in different climate states.
Weakening of Cold Halocline Layer Exposes Sea Ice to Oceanic Heat in the Eastern Arctic Ocean
Authors: Polyakov Igor V. , Rippeth Tom P. , Fer Ilker , Alkire Matthew B. , Baumann Till M. , Carmack Eddy C. , Ingvaldsen Randi , Ivanov Vladimir V. , Janout Markus , Lind Sigrid , Padman Laurie , Pnyushkov Andrey V. , Rember Robert 
Published: August 2020

AbstractA 15-yr duration record of mooring observations from the eastern (>70°E) Eurasian Basin (EB) of the Arctic Ocean is used to show and quantify the recently increased oceanic heat flux from intermediate-depth (~150–900 m) warm Atlantic Water (AW) to the surface mixed layer and sea ice. The upward release of AW heat is regulated by the stability of the overlying halocline, which we show has weakened substantially in recent years. Shoaling of the AW has also contributed, with observations in winter 2017–18 showing AW at only 80 m depth, just below the wintertime surface mixed layer, the shallowest in our mooring records. The weakening of the halocline for several months at this time implies that AW heat was linked to winter convection associated with brine rejection during sea ice formation. This resulted in a substantial increase of upward oceanic heat flux during the winter season, from an average of 3–4 W m−2 in 2007–08 to >10 W m−2 in 2016–18. This seasonal AW heat loss in the eastern EB is equivalent to a more than a twofold reduction of winter ice growth. These changes imply a positive feedback as reduced sea ice cover permits increased mixing, augmenting the summer-dominated ice-albedo feedback.
Modulations of North American and European Weather Variability and Extremes by Interdecadal Variability of the Atmospheric Circulation over the North Atlantic Sector
Authors: Martineau Patrick , Nakamura Hisashi , Kosaka Yu , Taguchi Bunmei , Mori Masato 
Published: August 2020

AbstractThe dominant mode of wintertime interdecadal covariability between subseasonal surface air temperature (SAT) variability and midtropospheric circulation over the North Atlantic sector is identified through maximum covariance analysis applied to century-long reanalysis data. This mode highlights a tendency for subseasonal temperature variability over Europe and eastern North America to be enhanced during decades when the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) prevails. This interdecadal NAO is characterized by a stationary Rossby wave train that originates from the subtropical Atlantic, propagates northward into the subpolar Atlantic, and finally refracts toward Europe and the Middle East. A decadal increase in precipitation in the subtropics under the enhanced supply of heat and moisture from the Gulf Stream and its surroundings appears to act as a source for this wave train. The influence of the interdecadal NAO on subseasonal SAT variability is explained primarily by the modulated efficiency of baroclinic conversion of available potential energy from the background atmospheric flow to subseasonal eddies. The combination of enhanced subseasonal variability and low winter-mean temperature anomalies associated with the negative phase of the interdecadal NAO increases the frequency of cold extremes affecting Europe and the eastern United States.
The Arctic Surface Climate in CMIP6: Status and Developments since CMIP5
Authors: Davy Richard , Outten Stephen 
Published: August 2020

AbstractHere we evaluate the sea ice, surface air temperature, and sea level pressure from 34 of the models used in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) for their biases, trends, and variability, and compare them to the CMIP5 ensemble and ERA5 for the period 1979 to 2004. The principal purpose of this assessment is to provide an overview of the ability of the CMIP6 ensemble to represent the Arctic climate, and to see how this has changed since the last phase of CMIP. Overall, we find a distinct improvement in the representation of the sea ice volume and extent, the latter mostly linked to improvements in the seasonal cycle in the Barents Sea. However, numerous model biases have persisted into CMIP6 including too-cold conditions in the winter (4-K cold bias) and a negative trend in the day-to-day variability over ice in winter. We find that under the low-emission scenario, SSP126, the Arctic climate is projected to stabilize by 2060 with an annual mean sea ice extent of around 2.5 million km2 and an annual mean temperature 4.7 K warmer than the early-twentieth-century average, compared to 1.7 K of warming globally.
Interannual Variability of the Basinwide Translation Speed of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific
Authors: Wang Chao , Wu Liguang , Lu Jun , Liu Qingyuan , Zhao Haikun , Tian Wei , Cao Jian 
Published: August 2020

AbstractUnderstanding variations in tropical cyclone (TC) translation speed (TCS) is of great importance for islands and coastal regions since it is an important factor in determining TC-induced local damages. Investigating the long-term change in TCS was usually subject to substantial limitations in the quality of historical TC records, but here we investigated the interannual variability in TCS over the western North Pacific (WNP) Ocean by using reliable satellite TC records. It was found that both temporal changes in large-scale steering flow and TC track greatly contributed to interannual variability in the WNP TCS. In the peak season (July–September), TCS changes were closely related to temporal variations in large-scale steering flow, which was linked to the intensity of the western North Pacific subtropical high. However, for the late season (October–December), changes in TC track played a vital role in interannual variability in TCS while the impacts of temporal variations in large-scale steering were weak. The changes in TC track were mainly contributed by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-induced zonal migrations in TC genesis locations, which make more or fewer TCs move to the subtropical WNP, thus leading to notable changes in the basinwide TCS because of the much greater large-scale steering in the subtropical WNP. The increased influence of TC track change on TCS in the late season was linked to the greater contrast between the subtropical and the tropical large-scale steering in the late season. These results have important implications for understanding current and future variations in TCS.
Coupling of Surface Ocean Heat and Carbon Perturbations over the Subtropical Cells under Twenty-First Century Climate Change
Authors: Rodgers K. B. , Ishii M. , Frölicher T. L. , Schlunegger S. , Aumont O. , Toyama K. , Slater R. D. 
Published: August 2020

AbstractIt is well established that the ocean plays an important role in absorbing anthropogenic carbon Cant from the atmosphere. Under global warming, Earth system model simulations and theoretical arguments indicate that the capacity of the ocean to absorb Cant will be reduced, with this constituting a positive carbon–climate feedback. Here we apply a suite of sensitivity simulations with a comprehensive Earth system model to demonstrate that the surface waters of the shallow overturning structures (spanning 45°S–45°N) sustain nearly half of the global ocean carbon–climate feedback. The main results reveal a feedback that is initially triggered by warming but that amplifies over time as Cant invasion enhances the sensitivity of surface pCO2 to further warming, particularly in the warmer season. Importantly, this “heat–carbon feedback” mechanism is distinct from (and significantly weaker than) what one would expect from temperature-controlled solubility perturbations to pCO2 alone. It finds independent confirmation in an additional perturbation experiment with the same Earth system model. There mechanism denial is applied by disallowing the secular trend in the physical state of the ocean under climate change, while simultaneously allowing the effects of heating to impact sea surface pCO2 and thereby CO2 uptake. Reemergence of Cant along the equator within the shallow overturning circulation plays an important role in the heat–carbon feedback, with the decadal renewal time scale for thermocline waters modulating the feedback response. The results here for 45°S–45°N stand in contrast to what is found in the high latitudes, where a clear signature of a broader range of driving mechanisms is present.
Quantifying the Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Contribution to the Observed Spring Snow-Cover Decline Using the CMIP6 Multimodel Ensemble
Authors: Paik Seungmok , Min Seung-Ki 
Published: August 2020

AbstractThis study conducts a detection and attribution analysis of the observed changes in boreal spring snow-cover extent (SCE) for an extended period of 1925–2019 for early spring (March and April) and 1970–2019 for late spring (May and June) using updated observations and multimodel simulations from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The observed and simulated SCE changes over the Northern Hemisphere (NH), Eurasia, and North America are compared using an optimal fingerprinting technique. Detection results indicate that anthropogenic influences are robustly detected in the observed SCE decrease over NH and the continental regions, in separation from natural forcing influences. In contrast to previous studies, anthropogenic response in the early spring SCE shows a consistent magnitude with observations, due to an extension of the time period to 2019. It is demonstrated for the first time that the greenhouse gas (GHG) influence is robustly detected in separation from anthropogenic aerosol and natural forcing influences, and that most of the observed spring SCE decrease is attributable to GHG influences. The observed SCE decline is also found to be closely associated with the surface warming over the corresponding extratropical lands. Our first quantification of GHG contribution to the observed SCE changes has important implications for reliable future projections of the SCE changes and its hydrological and ecological impacts.
Moisture Sources Associated with Precipitation during Dry and Wet Seasons over Central Asia
Authors: Peng Dongdong , Zhou Tianjun , Zhang Lixia 
Published: August 2020

AbstractIdentifying the origin of moisture is a key process in revealing the formation mechanisms of precipitation, but the moisture sources for central Asia have not been well documented in previous studies. In this work, we employ the Lagrangian model FLEXPART over 2011–19 to address this question. Multiple observational products indicate that the times of dry and wet seasons are opposite for western and eastern central Asia bounded by 75°E. The wet season is November–April (NDJFMA) for western central Asia but May–October (MJJASO) for eastern central Asia, while the opposite is true for the dry season. The main moisture source regions for western central Asia are local regions (with a contribution of 49.11%), western Eurasia (21.47%), and western Asia (11.37%) during MJJASO and local regions (33.92%), western Asia (27.50%), and western Eurasia (17.60%) during NDJFMA. For eastern central Asia, moisture mainly originates from local regions (52.38%), western central Asia (25.22%), and northern Eurasia (9.26%) during MJJASO and western central Asia (30.86%), local regions (30.82%), western Asia (10.31%), and western Eurasia (10.26%) during NDJFMA. The differences in moisture sources between dry and wet seasons mainly occur in local regions and western Asia for western central Asia but in local regions for eastern central Asia. The moisture from northern Eurasia, western Eurasia, and western central Asia is transported into target regions by the westerly and southwesterly winds that are associated with a deep low trough over central Asia. Moisture is transported from western Asia by the anticyclone occurs over North Africa and western Asia in the lower and middle troposphere.