bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025_split huggingface dataset:
Creation of a long-term high-resolution hydrometeorological archive for the Russian Arctic: methodology and first results
Authors: Platonov Vladimir , Varentsov Mikhail 
Published: December 2019

Abstract
Taking into account that dangerous phenomena on the Arctic coast are increasing in number, providing the region with detailed hydrometeorological and climatic information with a horizontal resolution of at least several kilometers becomes particularly important. In this work, we obtain for the first time a detailed archive of many hydrometeorological parameters with a spatial resolution of less than 5 km based on long-term simulation experiments. Detailed hydrometeorological fields in the Arctic basin over a long period (1980 – 2016) are derived by a two-step downscaling technology with domains of horizontal resolutions of~13 km and ~4 km that cover most of the Russian Artic, by using a regional non-hydrostatic model, COSMO-CLM. First results of verification with hundreds of Russian Arctic stations allow us to select the best configuration of the model and domains, including many turbulent scheme options and starting time of the experiments. The model results for the coast have shown good agreement with observations (with mean errors of 1 - 2 C). The larger temperature biases over the Eastern Siberia inland have been partially reduced by using selected turbulence scheme options (with mean errors of 5 - 6 C to 2 – 3 C). The differences between the ERA-Interim and ERA5 driving conditions are not great. Therefore, the former are chosen as basic reanalysis, taking into account the data volume and limitations on computational resources. A possible future regional reanalysis output would be useful in many applications, e.g. modelling ocean’s characteristics, coastal ecosystems, detailed investigation of individual extreme phenomena in nested domains, analysis of trends in the frequency of occurrence of extreme events and features of their spatial distribution, study of the hydrometeorological regime of coastal areas, the climatology and tracking of polar mesocyclones, etc.
Application of a neural network model to forecasting of El Niño and La Niña
Authors: Lubkov A S , Voskresenskaya E N , Marchukova O V 
Published: December 2019

AbstractIn this paper, a possibility to forecast El Niño and La Niña by using an artificial intelligence model based on neural networks is studied. The quality of such a long-term climate forecast is assessed too. A set of global climatic indices of atmosphere-ocean system oscillations in 1950-2019 is used as input parameters of the model. The Nino3.4 index is calculated by using monthly average 500mb geopotential height and sea surface temperature fields from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets. A verification of the model is carried out by using a control sample of 1950–1957. Additionally, the same indices of 1872-1947 are calculated by using 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR) data sets to test the model. A possibility to predict the Nino3.4 index for 2 to 7 months is shown. However, in spite of a high-level reconstruction of the index dynamics, increasing the time of forecasting is accompanied by decreasing its quality. With 20CR data it is shown that the model is able to successfully predict the beginning of 75% of El Niño and La Niña for 3 months, 66% of the events for 5 months, and only 52% for 7 months in advance.
Numerical analysis of an inverse coefficient problem for a chemical transformation model
Authors: Penenko A V , Mukatova Zh S , Salimova A B 
Published: December 2019

Abstract
Inverse coefficient problems for a non-stationary chemical transformation model are considered. The objective of this work is to test an approach consisting in reducing the inverse problem to a quasi-linear matrix equation based on sensitivity operators constructed from an ensemble of independent solutions of adjoint equations. A Newton-Kantorovich-type algorithm is used to solve the thus obtained matrix equations. This approach is tested on a chemical transformation scheme with 22 species and 20 reactions. The reconstruction results are compared with several sets of unknown reaction rates according to the influence characteristics. The analysis seems to be useful for selecting sets of reaction rates that can be reconstructed by the inverse problem solution.
Wind projections for the territory of Russia considering the development of wind power
Authors: Fedotova E V 
Published: December 2019

Abstract
The aim of the present work is to obtain surface wind speed projections which could be used as guidelines for long-term planning of wind power construction in Russia. A classical multi-model ensemble approach is implemented by using CMIP5 simulation results. The reliability of the ensemble estimation is assessed by a comparison of three different ensemble versions, which are validated against reanalysis data for the whole 20th century and have been found to give consistent results since 1950. Agreement between the results of all the assembling approaches has been found to be quite good for the mid-twenty-first century. All ensembles being considered agree that a considerable decrease in wind resources should be expected in the European part of Russia and in the south of Western Siberia towards 2050. Another robust output of the analysis is an increase in annual wind speed in the Southern Russian Far East. The wind change during the considered 40-year period is in the range from - 6 to +6%, which means a -18 to +18% change in potential wind generation. The main output of the present work is that climate change by no means can be seen to be an obstacle to the development of renewable power in Russia. However, the climate change associated alteration of wind regime should be necessarily taken into account when establishing long-term plans for wind farm construction in Russia.
Stochastic quasi-Gaussian models of atmospheric clouds
Authors: Kablukova E G , Ogorodnikov V A , Prigarin S M , Yudin M S 
Published: December 2019

Abstract
Random field simulation methods that can be used to simulate the stochastic structure of three-dimensional clouds are discussed. Examples of homogeneous random field realizations that reproduce one-dimensional distributions and correlation functions of experimental fields of stratus optical thicknesses are presented.
High-resolution simulation of particle transport in the urban atmospheric boundary layer
Authors: Varentsov A I , Stepanenko V M , Konstantinov P I 
Published: December 2019

Abstract
This paper presents a model simulating the transport of particles of various sizes and masses in complex atmospheric boundary layer domains over urban areas by using a Lagrangian approach. The model takes input fields of air velocity and turbulence characteristics from various external RANS, LES, or DNS models (in this study, ENVI-met model is used), and includes a parameterization of subgrid stochastic velocity fluctuations. It allows us to estimate the movement of particles, their sedimentation, accumulation on the surface, and the variability of these processes depending on meteorological conditions. The results of test numerical experiments for aerosol transport over an idealized urban canopy are presented. The model has shown a good degree of qualitative conformity with the ENVI-met model.
Analysis of circulation near the coast of Western Crimea and the region of Sevastopol with assimilation of temperature and salinity observations
Authors: Evstigneeva N , Demyshev S 
Published: December 2019

Abstract
Hydrophysical fields which are continuous in time and space are reconstructed in the coastal zone of the Black Sea (near the coast of Western Crimea and the region of Sevastopol) by a three-dimensional nonlinear hydrodynamic model with assimilation of observational data of the 2007 hydrological survey. A sequential optimal interpolation of temperature and salinity observations is used as the assimilation procedure. We use real atmospheric forcing and a high resolution (a horizontal grid of ~1.6×1.6 km and 31 vertical layers from 1 m to 1300 m). Mesoscale features of the currents are obtained, and coastal upwelling in the Kalamitsky Bay is reconstructed and registered in satellite observations.
Long Periods of Increased/Decreased Runoffs of Large Russian Rivers
Authors: Georgiadi A G , Kashutina E A , Milyukova I P 
Published: December 2019

Abstract
Long series of annual and seasonal runoffs of large Russian rivers (the Volga at Volgograd, the Don at Razdorskaya, the Yenisei at Igarka, and the Lena at Kyusyur) since the 1870s for the Russian Plain rivers and since the 1930s for the Siberian rivers have been analyzed. Long periods (phases) of increased and decreased water flow have been identified. The boundaries of contrast phases are determined with cumulative deviation curves in combination with Student’s test. The duration of the phases varies from 20–25 years to many decades (for runoff in low-water seasons of the Volga and Don). For the Volga and Don, the phases of decreased runoff are generally longer than increased flow phases (this is especially true for low-water seasons). The identified contrast phases show a statistically significant difference between the annual and seasonal runoffs, which varies from 10 to 65%. In the phases of increased flow, high-water years occur much more often than low-water years, and vice versa. In the period of current climate warming (since 1981), the changes in annual runoff relative to the calculated runoff of the reference period (from the 1930s to 1980) are opposing, i.e., the runoff decreased in the Don and increased in the Volga, Yenisei, and Lena. In this case, the changes are most significant in the Don. In the period of current climate warming, both the winter and snow-melt flood runoff has increased only for the Lena. At the same time, the contributions of climatic and anthropogenic factors to the changes in runoff differ significantly for each of the rivers under study.
Anthropogenic heat fluxes in urban agglomerations and their impact on meteorological processes
Authors: Ginzburg A S , Dokukin S A 
Published: December 2019

Abstract
One of the main factors of the impact of urbanization on mesoscale atmospheric and climatic processes are the anthropogenic heat fluxes (AHFs) caused by all types of heat sources in urban areas – from industry to metabolism in residents. A calculation of the influence of energy consumption in urban weather and climate made by the COSMO-CLM model with the TERRA-URB scheme shows that anthropogenic heat fluxes have a noticeable effect on urban temperature and wind regime. In Moscow’s agglomeration, the AHF contribution results in an increase of the mean annual temperature by 2°C and of the mean annual wind speed by more than 1 m/s, while the prevailing wind direction changes only slightly.
IMCES Geophysical Observatory for studies of surface-atmosphere interactions
Authors: Gordov E P , Bogomolov V Yu , Dyukarev E A , Okladnikov I G , Smirnov S V 
Published: December 2019

Abstarct
This paper describes a geophysical observatory in use at the Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS and the data it provides. These data can be used for the development of new parameterizations in an active layer model. This model will allow us to reproduce the physical processes in the soil and on its surface and make a detailed description of the exchanges between the surface and the atmosphere. This, in turn, could significantly increase the reliability of regional weather forecasts, especially of extreme weather events. The anticipated improvement in regional meteorological forecasting, as well as in a variety of characteristics measured at the geophysical observatory and the supporting information infrastructure open up possibilities for novel practical applications. In particular, we plan to use the ongoing measurements and data obtained for agrometeorological applications in Western Siberia.
Role of sea surface warming in convective activity over Europe and Northern Eurasia: estimates with sensitivity model experiments
Authors: Yarinich Yu I , Chernokulsky A V , Semenov V A , Latif M 
Published: December 2019

AbstractThe influence of sea surface warming on convective activity over Europe and Northern Eurasia is estimated from sensitivity model experiments by an atmospheric general circulation model, ECHAM5, with prescribed boundary conditions (“warm” and “cold” sea surface). Convective activity is analysed by using various indices (thermodynamic, dynamic, and composite). It is shown that warmer sea surface leads to a general increase in the thermodynamic indices that is broadly consistent with observations. Particularly, the observed increase in CAPE over the eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea, the Black Sea, and Eastern Europe is well reproduced in the sensitivity experiments. At the same time, the shear and helicity instability indices depend little on sea surface warming. The experiment with only Mediterranean and Black Seas warming tends to overestimate the increase in the thermodynamic indices near these seas and underestimate the increase in the other regions. There are several regions (the Iberian Peninsula, Mongolia, and Northern China) where the observations show a decrease in the convective indices. These negative changes are not reproduced in the model experiments, because their nature is, apparently, not related to sea surface warming.
Using information and computing system “Climate” to raise awareness among the population and decision makers about regional effects of climate change
Authors: Gordova Yu E , Riazanova A A , Titov A G , Gordov E P 
Published: December 2019

Abstract
The effects of global climate change will be most dramatic in the vast Russian territory. According to the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia, there is an increase in the magnitude and frequency of extreme weather events, as well as in their damage to the ecosystems and infrastructure. To develop adaptation to climate change and mitigation of its consequences, it is necessary to promote and support activities aimed at reducing possible risks. However, there is insufficient awareness and lack of scientific background among decision-makers. Persons responsible for making decisions, stakeholders, and the general public do not often have skills and knowledge to work with climate data to elaborate an adaptation and sustainable development strategy. Some new sections of a web-system, “Climate”, are tailored to provide these groups with tools, skills, and thematic information for understanding climate processes occurring in their region. A course is developed where basic concepts are explained in detail for the general public. A climate characteristics database for decision-makers is created to obtain calculated fields of the indices describing spatial distributions of extreme values of meteorological characteristics for the territory of Siberia. For work with any of the indices, it is possible to download the database in various formats for use in various desktop GIS systems.
Implementation of artificial intelligence for analysis of long-term climate variability
Authors: Fedotova E V , Luferov V S 
Published: December 2019

Abstract
A simulation workflow is formulated to facilitate an application of modern data-driven approaches to climate problems by considering both theoretical aspects and modern tools of program implementation. A real supervised classification problem is considered as a use case. A convolutional neural network based model is developed to make the supervised classification of large-scale atmospheric circulation regimes. It has been found that a key prerequisite to ensure the success of the thus developed deep learning model is the proper matching of the data preprocessing and model architecture with the nature of the problem being considered. Particularly, applying of the seasonal anomalies transformation, tuning of the convolutional filters dimension and batch size adjustment have been found to be crucial to ensure a satisfactory accuracy of the regime recognition and a stable operation of the model. The generation of feature maps is demonstrated to be useful both as an interpretability tool and a heuristic approach to tuning of hyperparameters.
Analysis of aridity characteristics in Europe in the last millennium according to calculations with climatic models
Authors: Mirsaeva N A , Eliseev A V 
Published: December 2019

Abstract
Spatio-temporal distributions of aridity characteristics in Europe based on results of CMIP5 experiments are considered. According to calculations with a model, MPI-ESM-P, climate cooling in the Little Ice Age is characterized by a more humid climate in northern Europe compared with that in the pre-industrial period, although the changes are statistically insignificant. For the medieval climatic optimum, the changes in the climate humidification mode from the pre-industrial period are statistically insignificant. According to calculations with the IAP RAS CM model, cooling in the Little Ice Age is characterized by a more humid climate in the North-Eastern Atlantic compared with that in the pre-industrial period, and the changes are statistically significant.
Oligotrophic bogs’ runoff effect on surface waters
Authors: Berezin A E , Zakharova E A , Parshina N V , Ivanov V , Kuraev A V 
Published: December 2019

Abstract
The removal of organic matter, including carbon, from oligotrophic bogs is determined by the amount of decomposed organic matter in bog waters and the runoff intensity. This process has a pronounced seasonal dynamics and is determined by weather conditions and characteristics of the bog runoff. The maximum watering is observed in the spring during snow thawing and in the autumn due to abundant precipitation and reduced evaporation. The amount of organic matter in bog water is determined by the air temperature of the previous period. Thus, the maximum carbon runoff from the bogs is possible in May-June and September, and the situation can vary considerably over the years, the weather being taken into account.
Long-term dynamics of maximum flood water levels in the middle course of the Ob River
Authors: Zemtsov V A , Vershinin D A , Khromykh V V , Khromykh O V 
Published: December 2019

AbstractResults of statistical analysis of the long-time series of flood maximum water levels in the Ob River middle course (West Siberia, Russia) are presented. Most time series are statistically non-homogeneous at the 5 % level of significance. In most cases, there is a violation of homogeneity in 1959 due to the Novosibirsk HPP flow regulation, but there might be also some natural change. The extremely low maximum levels of 2012 are the “outliers” from probability distribution functions at 5% significance level. In the modern period (after 1959), some downward tendencies in maximum water level change over the middle course of the Ob River cause decrease in the area, depth and duration of floodplain inundation.
Assessment methodology for the backwater levels caused by ice jams: a case study of the rivers of Tom and Chulym (the Ob River drainage basin, Western Siberia, Russia)
Authors: Savichev O G , Tarasov A S , Zemtsov V A 
Published: December 2019

Abstract
The article presents an assessment methodology for backwater levels caused by break-up or freeze-up ice jams. Ice jam induced backwater effects reflect changes in water and ice balance in a stream reach. The balance, in turn, depends on the ratio of thermal and dynamic factors of ice events formation. The methodology based on a scheme of jammed river longitudinal profile has been proposed and tested using the observation data on the rivers of Tom and Chulym, and it has been shown that the accuracy of assessment is around 2–12% of the measured values.
Estimation of the ecological status of the Middle Ob floodplain water bodies
Authors: Popkov V K , Rozhkova-Timina I O , Kirpotin S N 
Published: December 2019

Abstract
A comparative analysis of 4 lakes of the Ob riverbed floodplain was carried out. These lakes differ in the area, depth, overgrowing by higher aquatic vegetation and the flood effects. The assessment of the state of these water bodies was carried out on the basis of the ecological and faunistic analysis of zooplankton, studies of the water chemical composition, including general analyzes and determination of the chemical elements. All studied lakes belong to β-mesosaprobic reservoirs; but they differ in species composition, dominant complex, zooplankton biomass, and they have different stages of succession. The statistically significant associations of zooplankton biomass with concentrations of dissolved CO2 were revealed. The researches demonstrated that the surveyed lakes can be used as model ones in monitoring studies to identify the interannual, cyclic and successional processes.
Present Climate Developments in Southern Siberia (1963-2017 years)
Authors: Kharlamova N , Sukhova M , Chlachula J 
Published: December 2019

Abstract
Siberia is a key region for mapping the climate development in north-central Eurasia in terms of global climatic change. The territorial relief creates a major orographic barrier for atmospheric streams influencing the regional altitudinal weather zonality. Systematic 55-year (1963-2017) weather observations along the 700 km N-S latitudinal transect across the southern Siberian plains and the adjoining ranges of the Altai-Sayan Mountains document progressing seasonal temperature and humidity shifts. Regionally uniform trend provides evidence of the strengthening climate continentality over Siberia also manifested by the pronounced seasonal temperature regime with increased thermally positive and negative air temperature anomalies. A landscape response to a climate warming is particularly evident in the high mountain zone. The present thermal conditions with raised MAT contribute to the progressing melting of mountain glaciers and degradation of permafrost in the alpine zone, as well as aridization of the parkland-steppe areas that are being partly transformed into continental semi-arid to desertic steppes. The associated environmental transformations trigger shifts in the local biotopes and ecosystems, with an altitudinal expansion of taiga-forest into the alpine tundra belt and xerothermic grassland invasions in the foothills.
Properties and major element concentrations in peat profiles of the polygonal frozen bog in Western Siberia
Authors: Raudina T V , Loiko S V 
Published: December 2019

Abstract
The properties and elemental composition of the Histosols of polygonal frozen bog in Western Siberia are characterized. The study of peat soils allowed an evaluation of the effect of micro-landscape on main properties and major element concentrations. According to acid-base characteristics and the ash content, the studied soils can be qualified as oligotrophic. The soil profile shows a tendency to increase the TOC in the lower horizons, and especially, in the peat soils of the polygons. The highest average TOC, Ca, Mg, K, P, Fe, and Na concentrations in the peat profile are observed in the soils of polygons (1.2-2.2 times). A large number of phytomass and plant productivity contribute to the enrichment of soils with carbon and some elements on the polygons. In addition, the difference between the soils of polygons and hollows in terms of the thermal conditions and peat hydrophysical characteristics is reflected in their elemental composition and properties.