num_pages: 297
description: The Author makes the case that the increasing number of emerging Countries moving from a Third World status into consumer orientated free market economies will add further billions of people to the total of of existing global consumers . China and India are the leaders in this revolution with the potential to add nearly four billion citizens between them all of whom will be seeking to take up their new freedom to purchase and devour the global production of consumer goods . This dramatically increasing demand will force the global GDP higher and higher every year and all of it predicated on the continued availability of relatively cheap fossil fuels . The Industrial revolution in Great Britain, which led to the building of the largest Empire in recent history, was built on the back of cheap coal production and increases in food production through mechanisation and transport by Railway. Cheap oil fuelled this process further as technology moved from steam to the internal combustion engine . Oil was so cheap to locate , extract and supply that no one ever beleived that this incredible bounty could ever end . All these years later we are now moving towards the tipping point where there is less Oil left than the amount we have consumed . This is called Peak Oil and the possibility is that we have already seen the peak . However no one will notice . No one is taking any steps to forestall the inevitable problems that will come from any disruption in the flow of Oil to civilisation and there are many many disbelievers . However the Author sees the problem differently . As a Futures and Options trader he believes that the day will come, probably within the next ten years or maybe sooner depending on the acceleration of global GDP , when the Maximum Daily Output of Refined Crude will be exceeded by the Minimum Daily Demand and that the derivatives market which control the future price of Oil will then convert that gap between supply and demand into a price . He believes that once that daily tipping point has been passed that the price of Crude will climb as high as $400 dollars a barrell or more . We have already seen Crude as high as $147 a barrell only for a global recession and financial meltdown to reduce demand dramatically and thus bring the price lower . The strategic change to the daily supply and demand figure , once in place , will never again allow prices to trade dramatically lower . Crude at double , treble or much higher than present day prices will inevitably bring about the collapse of the global economy and infrastructure . Over 90 % of global transport is fuelled by Crude Oil as is 100% of air travel . No energy importing country will be able to cope with Petrol at £20 pounds a gallon or more and their infrastructure will collapse . In this book the Author explains why , how and what will happen and steps that Government could take to ameliorate some of the problems ahead but of course they wont . Failed Presidential candidate Quayle will never see 2100 bring about catastrophic Global Warming because Peak Oil will stop the world in its tracks long before then .
language: English
title: Global Warming vs Peak Oil