num_pages: 352
description: Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future whether buying stocks crafting policy launching a new product or simply planning the weeks meals. Unfortunately people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study even experts predictions are only slightly better than chance. However an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary peopleincluding a Brooklyn filmmaker a retired pipe installer and a former ballroom dancerwho set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. Theyve beaten other benchmarks competitors and prediction markets. Theyve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are superforecasters. In this groundbreaking and accessible book Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Ladens compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin they show that good forecasting doesnt require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources thinking probabilistically working in teams keeping score and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the futurewhether in business finance politics international affairs or daily lifeand is destined to become a modern classic.
language: English
title: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
publisher: Crown