num_pages: 336
description: Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward one-line by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents it is subjectivity run amok. In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 yearsat the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information (Alan Turing's role in breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II) and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA de-coding to Homeland Security. Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time.
language: English
title: The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy
publisher: Yale University Press