num_pages: 320
description: Fundamental change occurs most often in one of two ways: as a fatal discontinuity a sudden catastrophic event that is potentially world changing or as a persistent gradual trend. Global catastrophes include volcanic eruptions viral pandemics wars and large-scale terrorist attacks; trends are demographic environmental economic and political shifts that unfold over time. In this provocative book scientist Vaclav Smil takes a wide-ranging interdisciplinary look at the catastrophes and trends the next fifty years may bring. This is not a book of forecasts or scenarios but one that reminds us to pay attention to and plan for the consequences of apparently unpredictable events and the ultimate direction of long-term trends.Smil first looks at rare but cataclysmic events both natural and human-produced then at trends of global importance: the transition from fossil fuels to other energy sources; demographic and political shifts in Europe Japan Russia China the United States and Islamic nations; the battle for global primacy; and growing economic and social inequality. He also considers environmental changein some ways an amalgam of sudden discontinuities and gradual changeand assesses the often misunderstood complexities of global warming.Global Catastrophes and Trends does not come down on the side of either doom-and-gloom scenarios or techno-euphoria. Instead relying on long-term historical perspectives and a distaste for the rigid compartmentalization of knowledge Smil argues that understanding change will help us reverse negative trends and minimize the risk of catastrophe.
language: English
title: Global Catastrophes and Trends: The Next Fifty Years
publisher: The MIT Press