OBJECTIVE: To determine the frequency of different outcomes in @entity1 participating in cervical screening. DESIGN: Analysis of screening records from 348 419 @entity1 , and modelling of cases of @entity5 and @entity204 with and without screening. SETTING: Cervical screening programme in Bristol. RESULTS: For every 10 000 @entity1 screened from 1976 to 1996, 1564 had abnormal cytology, 818 were investigated, and 543 had abnormal histology. One hundred and seventy six had persistent abnormality for two years or more. In the absence of screening 80 @entity1 would be expected to develop @entity5 of the cervix by 2011, of whom 25 would die. With screening 10 of these @entity204 would be avoided. Comparison of cumulative abnormality rates with numbers expected to develop @entity5 in the absence of screening suggests that at least 80% of high grade dyskaryosis and of high grade @entity1141 would not progress to @entity5 . The lifetime risk of having abnormal cytology detected could be as high as 40% for @entity1 born since 1960. CONCLUSIONS: Screening is labour and resource intensive. It involves treatment for many @entity1 not destined to develop @entity3 . The increased intervention rate for @entity854 in England is due to change in practice, not a cohort effect, and is probably the reason for the marked fall in incidence and mortality during the 1990s. For other @entity5 there is scope for major iatrogenic harm from screening because of invasive tests and treatments.

Outcomes of screening to prevent @entity5 : analysis of cumulative incidence of XXXX and modelling of cases and @entity204 prevented.

@entity1 :: ('9606', 'Species') :: ['women'] @entity5 :: ('MESH:D009369', 'Disease') :: ['cancers', 'cancer', 'cervical cancer'] @entity854 :: ('MESH:D018376', 'Disease') :: ['cervical abnormality'] @entity3 :: ('MESH:D009362', 'Disease') :: ['invasive cancer'] @entity204 :: ('MESH:D003643', 'Disease') :: ['deaths'] @entity1141 :: ('MESH:C535662', 'Disease') :: ['dysplasia']
@entity854 :: (MESH:D018376,Disease) :: ['cervical abnormality']
