PURPOSE: To study whether probabilistic selection by the use of a nomogram could improve @entity1 selection for @entity3457 ( @entity3457 ) compared to the various sets of rule-based @entity3457 inclusion criteria currently used. METHODS: We studied Dutch and Swedish @entity1 participating in the European Randomized study of Screening for @entity263 (ERSPC). We explored which @entity1 who were initially diagnosed with @entity42486 , Gleason 6 (Gleason pattern  <=3  +  3) had histopathological indolent PCa at @entity6391 [defined as pT2, Gleason pattern  <=3 and @entity5 volume (TV)  <=0.5 or TV   <=  1.3  ml, and TV no part of criteria (NoTV)]. Rule-based selection was according to the @entity263 Research International: Active Surveillance (PRIAS), Klotz, and Johns Hopkins criteria. An existing nomogram to define probability-based selection for @entity3457 was refitted for the TV1.3 and NoTV indolent PCa definitions. RESULTS: 619 of 864 @entity1 undergoing @entity6391 had @entity42486 , Gleason 6 disease at diagnosis and were analysed. Median follow-up was 8.9  years. 229 (37  %), 356 (58  %), and 410 (66  %) fulfilled the TV0.5, TV1.3, and NoTV indolent PCa criteria at @entity6391 . Discriminating between indolent and significant disease according to area under the curve (AUC) was: TV0.5: 0.658 (PRIAS), 0.523 (Klotz), 0.642 (Hopkins), 0.685 (nomogram). TV1.3: 0.630 (PRIAS), 0.550 (Klotz), 0.615 (Hopkins), 0.646 (nomogram). NoTV: 0.603 (PRIAS), 0.530 (Klotz), 0.589 (Hopkins), 0.608 (nomogram). CONCLUSIONS: The performance of a nomogram, the Johns Hopkins, and PRIAS rule-based criteria are comparable. Because the nomogram allows individual trade-offs, it could be a good alternative to rigid rule-based criteria.

Rule-based versus probabilistic selection for XXXX using three definitions of insignificant @entity263 .

@entity1 :: ('9606', 'Species') :: ['patients', 'patient', 'men'] @entity263 :: ('MESH:D011471', 'Disease') :: ['Prostate cancer', 'Prostate Cancer'] @entity5 :: ('MESH:D009369', 'Disease') :: ['tumour'] @entity6391 :: ('MESH:D012174', 'Disease') :: ['RP'] @entity3457 :: ('OMIM:612348', 'Disease') :: ['active surveillance', 'AS'] @entity42486 :: ('266740', 'Gene') :: ['cT1-2']
@entity3457 :: (OMIM:612348,Disease) :: ['active surveillance']
