BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Surveillance endoscopy has been advocated for @entity1 with @entity355 but the cost-effectiveness of this has been questioned. The aim of this study is to identify an optimum surveillance protocol by examining if macroscopic markers at diagnosis predict the development of @entity1141 . METHODS: The sample was 353 @entity1 with @entity355 undergoing surveillance by a community-based group of gastroenterologists between 1981 and 2001. At diagnosis the presence of macroscopic and microscopic markers was noted. The presence and pattern of @entity1141 and development of @entity420 was documented during subsequent surveillance. RESULTS: Three hundred and fifty-three @entity1 (71% male) underwent regular surveillance over 19 056 @entity1 -months (median 42 months), having a median number of three surveillance endoscopies (range 1-40). Nine @entity1 (seven male) developed @entity420 (1/176 @entity1 years) and four male @entity1 developed high-grade @entity1141 (1/397 @entity1 years). Twelve of these 13 @entity1 entered with one or more macroscopic markers: severe @entity2910 , nodularity, Barrett's @entity1066 . @entity1141 risk was associated with macroscopic markers. @entity1 who entered with one marker were 6.7 times more likely to develop high-grade @entity1141 / @entity420 (HR = 6.7, 95% CI = 1.3, 35). @entity1 who entered with two or more markers were 14 times more likely to develop high-grade @entity1141 / @entity420 (HR = 14.1, 95% CI = 2.02, 102). CONCLUSIONS: The presence of severe @entity2910 , @entity1066 , nodularity or stricture at entry indicates a high-risk group for @entity355 . Cost-effectiveness of surveillance for these @entity1 and those with @entity1141 at entry would thus improve.

XXXX : Macroscopic markers and the prediction of @entity1141 and @entity420 .

@entity1 :: ('9606', 'Species') :: ['Patients', 'patients', 'patient'] @entity355 :: ('MESH:D001471', 'Disease') :: ["Barrett's esophagus"] @entity2910 :: ('MESH:D004941', 'Disease') :: ['esophagitis'] @entity1066 :: ('MESH:D014456', 'Disease') :: ["Barrett's ulcer", 'ulcer or stricture'] @entity420 :: ('MESH:D000230', 'Disease') :: ['adenocarcinoma'] @entity1141 :: ('MESH:C535662', 'Disease') :: ['dysplasia', 'Dysplasia']
@entity355 :: (MESH:D001471,Disease) :: ['Barrett's esophagus']
