PURPOSE: To identify when, from the standpoint of relative risk, magnetic resonance (MR) imaging-based screening may be effective in @entity1 with a known or suspected genetic predisposition to @entity788 . MATERIALS AND METHODS: The authors developed a Markov model of @entity1124 ( @entity1124 ). The model was calibrated to National @entity5 Institute Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry data and informed by the literature. A hypothetical screening strategy was evaluated in which all population individuals underwent one-time MR imaging screening at age 50 years. Screening outcomes for individuals with an average risk for @entity1124 ("base case") were compared with those for individuals at an increased risk to assess for differential benefits in populations with a known or suspected genetic predisposition. Effects of varying key inputs, including MR imaging performance, surgical mortality, and screening age, were evaluated with a sensitivity analysis. RESULTS In the base case, screening resulted in a small number of @entity5 deaths averted (39 of 100 000 @entity1 , 38 of 100 000 @entity1 ) and a net decrease in life expectancy (-3 days for @entity1 , -4 days for @entity1 ), which was driven by unnecessary pancreatic surgeries associated with false-positive results. Life expectancy gains were achieved if an individual's risk for @entity1124 exceeded 2.4 ( @entity1 ) or 2.7 ( @entity1 ) times that of the general population. When relative risk increased further, for example to 30 times that of the general population, averted @entity5 deaths and life expectancy gains increased substantially (1219 of 100 000 @entity1 , life expectancy gain: 65 days; 1204 of 100 000 @entity1 , life expectancy gain: 71 days). In addition, results were sensitive to MR imaging specificity and the surgical mortality rate. CONCLUSION: Although @entity1124 screening with MR imaging for the entire population is not effective, individuals with even modestly increased risk may benefit.

Targeted screening of individuals at high risk for XXXX : results of a simulation model.

@entity1 :: ('9606', 'Species') :: ['women', 'patients', 'men'] @entity788 :: ('MESH:D010190', 'Disease') :: ['pancreatic cancer'] @entity5 :: ('MESH:D009369', 'Disease') :: ['cancer', 'Cancer'] @entity1124 :: ('MESH:D021441', 'Disease') :: ['PDAC', 'pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma']
@entity788 :: (MESH:D010190,Disease) :: ['pancreatic cancer']
