Global environmental change, in particular climate change, will have adverse effects on public health. The increased frequency/intensity of heat waves is expected to increase heat-related mortality and illness. To quantify the climatic risks of heat-related mortality in Lisbon an empirical-statistical model was developed in Part I, based on the climate-mortality relationship of the summer months of 1980-1998. In @entity14495 , scenarios of climate and population change are applied to the model to assess the potential impacts on public health in the 2020s and 2050s, in terms of crude heat-related mortality rates. Two @entity3628 ( @entity3628 ) were used and different assumptions about seasonality, acclimatisation and the estimation of excess @entity204 were made in order to represent uncertainty explicitly. An exploratory Bayesian analysis was used to investigate the sensitivity of the result to input assumptions. Annual heat-related @entity204 rates are estimated to increase from between 5.4 and 6 (per 100,000) for 1980-1998 to between 5.8 and 15.1 for the 2020s. By the 2050s, the potential increase ranges from 7.3 to 35.6. The burden of @entity204 is decreased if acclimatisation is factored in. Through a Bayesian analysis it is shown that, for the tested variables, future heat-related mortality is most sensitive to the choice of @entity11857 and least to the method of calculating the excess @entity204 .

Heat stress and mortality in Lisbon XXXX . An assessment of the potential impacts of climate change.

@entity204 :: ('MESH:D003643', 'Disease') :: ['death', 'deaths'] @entity14495 :: ('MESH:D018227', 'Disease') :: ['Part II'] @entity3628 :: ('MESH:D004195', 'Disease') :: ['regional climate models', 'RCMs'] @entity11857 :: ('MESH:C566168', 'Disease') :: ['RCM']
@entity14495 :: (MESH:D018227,Disease) :: ['Part II']
