BACKGROUND: The next @entity683 pandemic will create a surge in demand for health resources in China, with its current population of >1  3 billion @entity1 and under-developed medical care and public health system. However, few pandemic impact data are available for China. OBJECTIVES: We estimated the effects of a future @entity683 pandemic in China by examining pandemic scenarios of varying severity and described the time distribution of cases during a first wave. METHODS: We used a Monte-Carlo simulation model and @entity204 rates, hospitalizations and outpatient visits for 1918- and 1968- like pandemic scenarios and data from the literature or experts' opinion to estimate four health outcomes: @entity204 , hospitalizations, outpatient medical visits and clinical illness for which medical care was not sought. For each of the two scenarios we estimated outcomes by week using a normal distribution. RESULTS: We estimated that a 1968 scenario in China would result in 460,000-700,000 @entity204 , 1  94-2  27 million hospitalizations, 111-117 million outpatient visits and 192-197 million illnesses for which medical care was not sought. Fifty-two percent of hospitalizations occurred during the two-peak weeks of the first wave. We estimated that @entity1 at high-risk of @entity683 complications (10-17% of the population) would account for 61-75% of all @entity204 . For a 1918 scenario, we estimated that 4  95-6  95 million @entity204 , 20  8-22  7 million hospitalizations and 101-108 million outpatient visits could occur. CONCLUSION: Even a 1968 pandemic scenario will pose substantial challenges for the medical and public health system in China, and planning to manage these challenges is essential.

Estimates of the impact of a future XXXX pandemic in China.

@entity1 :: ('9606', 'Species') :: ['patients', 'persons'] @entity683 :: ('MESH:D007251', 'Disease') :: ['influenza'] @entity204 :: ('MESH:D003643', 'Disease') :: ['death', 'deaths']
@entity683 :: (MESH:D007251,Disease) :: ['influenza']
