BACKGROUND: This paper describes the first national @entity66 study for South Africa. The main focus is the burden due to premature mortality, i.e. years of life lost (YLLs). In addition, estimates of the burden contributed by morbidity, i.e. the years lived with disability (YLDs), are obtained to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs); and the impact of @entity791 on premature mortality in the year 2010 is assessed. METHOD: Owing to the rapid mortality transition and the lack of timely data, a modelling approach has been adopted. The total mortality for the year 2000 is estimated using a demographic and @entity791 model. The non- @entity791 cause-of-death profile is estimated using three sources of data: Statistics South Africa, the National Department of Home Affairs, and the National Injury Mortality Surveillance System. A ratio method is used to estimate the YLDs from the YLL estimates. RESULTS: The top single cause of mortality burden was @entity645 / @entity791 followed by homicide, @entity378 , road traffic accidents and @entity294 . @entity645 / @entity791 accounted for 38% of total YLLs, which is proportionately higher for females (47%) than for males (33%). Pre-transitional diseases, usually associated with poverty and underdevelopment, accounted for 25%, non-communicable diseases 21% and @entity130 16% of YLLs. The DALY estimates highlight the fact that mortality alone underestimates the @entity66 , especially with regard to unintentional @entity130 , @entity1576 , and nervous system, mental and @entity347 . The impact of @entity645 / @entity791 is expected to more than double the burden of premature mortality by the year 2010. CONCLUSION: This study has drawn together data from a range of sources to develop coherent estimates of premature mortality by cause. South Africa is experiencing a @entity66 comprising the pre-transitional diseases, the emerging @entity102 , @entity130 , and @entity645 / @entity791 . Unless interventions that reduce morbidity and delay morbidity become widely available, the burden due to @entity645 / @entity791 can be expected to grow very rapidly in the next few years. An improved base of information is needed to assess the morbidity impact more accurately.

Initial XXXX estimates for South Africa, 2000.

@entity66 :: ('MESH:D004194', 'Disease') :: ['burden of disease', 'quadruple burden of disease'] @entity294 :: ('MESH:D003967', 'Disease') :: ['diarrhoea'] @entity645 :: ('57667', 'Species') :: ['HIV'] @entity102 :: ('MESH:D002908', 'Disease') :: ['chronic diseases'] @entity1576 :: ('MESH:D012131', 'Disease') :: ['respiratory disease'] @entity378 :: ('MESH:D014376', 'Disease') :: ['tuberculosis'] @entity791 :: ('MESH:D000163', 'Disease') :: ['AIDS'] @entity130 :: ('MESH:D014947', 'Disease') :: ['injuries'] @entity347 :: ('MESH:D019965', 'Disease') :: ['sense organ disorders']
@entity66 :: (MESH:D004194,Disease) :: ['burden of disease']
