In 2013, the World Health Organization (WHO) recognized @entity13443 as one of the neglected tropical conditions due to the efforts of the @entity13443 consortium. This same consortium formulated knowledge gaps that require further research. One of these gaps was that very few data are available on the epidemiology and transmission cycle of the causative agents. Previous work suggested a soil-borne or Acacia thorn-prick-mediated origin of @entity281 , but no studies have investigated effects of soil type and Acacia geographic distribution on @entity13443 case distributions. Here, we map risk of @entity281 across Sudan and South Sudan using ecological niche modeling (ENM). For this study, records of @entity13443 cases were obtained from the scientific literature and GIDEON; Acacia records were obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility. We developed ENMs based on digital GIS data layers summarizing soil characteristics, land-surface temperature, and greenness indices to provide a rich picture of environmental variation across Sudan and South Sudan. ENMs were calibrated in known endemic districts and transferred countrywide; model results suggested that risk is greatest in an east-west belt across central Sudan. Visualizing ENMs in environmental dimensions, @entity13443 occurs under diverse environmental conditions. We compared niches of @entity13443 and Acacia trees, and could not reject the null hypothesis of niche similarity. This study revealed contributions of different environmental factors to @entity281 risk, identified suitable environments and regions for transmission, signaled a potential @entity13443 -Acacia association, and provided steps towards a robust risk map for the disease.

Mapping the potential risk of XXXX in Sudan and South Sudan using ecological niche modeling.

@entity13443 :: ('MESH:D008271', 'Disease') :: ['mycetoma'] @entity281 :: ('MESH:D007239', 'Disease') :: ['mycetoma infection', 'mycetoma infections']
@entity281 :: (MESH:D007239,Disease) :: ['mycetoma infection']
