BACKGROUND: There are limited data on @entity2615 mortality in industrializing countries, where, at present, most of the @entity1355 consumption occurs. OBJECTIVES: To analyze temporal trends and to calculate mortality rates from @entity2615 and @entity5 in Brazil from 2000 to 2012 and to estimate future mortality rates. METHODS: We retrieved records of @entity204 from @entity2615 ( @entity1479 -10C45) and @entity5 ( @entity1479 -10C38.4) from 2000 to 2012 in adults aged 30 years and over. Crude and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were calculated. Rate ratios of mean crude mortality for selected municipalities were compared to the Brazilian rate. A regression was carried out of the annual number of @entity204 against @entity1355 consumption using a Generalized Additive Model (GAM). The best model was chosen to estimate the future burden and peak period of @entity204 . RESULTS: There were 929C45 and 1379 C38.4 @entity204 . The ratio of @entity1 to @entity1 for C45 was 1.4. A positive trend in C45 numbers was observed in Brazil (p=0.0012), particularly in S  o Paulo (p=0.0004) where ASMRs presented an increasing linear trend (p=0.0344). Selected municipalities harboring @entity1355 manipulation presented 3.7-11 fold rate ratios of C45 compared to Brazil. GAM presented best fits for latencies of 34 years or more. It is estimated that the peak incidence of C45 mortality will occur between 2021 and 2026. CONCLUSIONS: The observed ASMRs and the gender ratio close to 1 suggest underreporting. Even so, @entity204 are increasing and @entity2615 clusters were identified. Compared to industrialized countries Brazil displays a 15-20 year lag in estimated peak @entity2615 mortality which is consistent with the lag of @entity1907 in the country.

The next XXXX wave: Mortality trends and forecast to 2030 in Brazil.

@entity1479 :: ('OMIM:252500', 'Disease') :: ['ICD'] @entity1 :: ('9606', 'Species') :: ['men', 'women'] @entity5 :: ('MESH:D009369', 'Disease') :: ['cancer of the pleura'] @entity2615 :: ('MESH:D008654', 'Disease') :: ['mesothelioma'] @entity204 :: ('MESH:D003643', 'Disease') :: ['deaths'] @entity1355 :: ('MESH:D001195', 'Disease') :: ['asbestos'] @entity1907 :: ('MESH:D014397', 'Disease') :: ['asbestos peak consumption']
@entity2615 :: (MESH:D008654,Disease) :: ['mesothelioma']
