STUDY OBJECTIVE: The UK government called for a 40% reduction in @entity65 mortality in those aged under 75 by 2010. This paper examines the potential for @entity65 factor changes to reduce @entity301 @entity204 in Scotland, and then extrapolates the findings to the UK population. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of published data using a previously validated mortality model. The model combines uptake and effectiveness of treatments with risk factor trends by sex and age group. It was used to estimate the expected reductions in @entity301 mortality: (a) if recent risk factor trends simply continued; (b) if additional risk factor reductions were achieved in line with Scandinavia and the United States. An "analysis of extremes" sensitivity analysis was then carried out. SETTING: Scotland and UK. @entity1 : Projected Scottish population aged 45+ in 2010 (2.4 million) and UK population of 26.8 million. MAIN RESULTS: Continuation of current trends would result in 2169 fewer coronary @entity204 in 2010 (minimum estimate 1191 from sensitivity analyses to maximum 3870). About 4749 fewer @entity204 (minimum 3085, maximum 7155) could be achieved by: (a) a reduction in smoking prevalence from 30% to 18% (about 1668 fewer @entity204 ); (b) a mean population @entity165 reduction from 6.2 to 5.2 mmol/l (about 2167 fewer @entity204 ); (c) a 3.7 mm Hg fall in diastolic blood pressure (about 914 fewer @entity204 ). Extrapolation from the Scottish population to the UK suggests 24 000 fewer @entity204 in 2010 if current trends continue, or 53 000 fewer @entity204 with the additional reductions. CONCLUSIONS: With additional interventions it would be possible to almost halve current UK @entity301 mortality. Even without gains from medical treatments, the UK government target of 28 000 fewer @entity204 in 2010 does not seem challenging.

Substantial potential for reductions in XXXX mortality in the UK through changes in risk factor levels.

@entity1 :: ('9606', 'Species') :: ['PARTICIPANTS'] @entity301 :: ('MESH:D003327', 'Disease') :: ['coronary heart disease'] @entity204 :: ('MESH:D003643', 'Disease') :: ['deaths'] @entity65 :: ('MESH:D002318', 'Disease') :: ['cardiovascular disease', 'cardiovascular risk'] @entity165 :: ('MESH:D002784', 'Chemical') :: ['cholesterol']
@entity301 :: (MESH:D003327,Disease) :: ['coronary heart disease']
