BACKGROUND: Moles, or @entity8205 , are both markers of an increased risk of @entity320 and direct precursor lesions. Recent strategies to reduce the burden of advanced disease have focused on early detection and ongoing surveillance of moles for @entity528 . Inherent in this approach is the notion that moles exhibit a certain risk of transformation into @entity320 ; however, this risk is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the risk of moles transforming into @entity320 . DESIGN: We first constructed a model of transformation based on the assumption that the minimal number of moles turning into @entity320 per year is roughly equivalent to the number of @entity320 diagnosed each year with associated nevic components. The annual risk was then calculated as the number of mole-associated @entity320 diagnosed in 1 year (stratified by 10-year age groups) divided by the number of moles in a the same 10-year age group. We also estimated the cumulative risk during the lifetime of an individual mole by using a modification of the standard life table method. RESULTS: The annual transformation rate of any single mole into @entity320 ranges from 0.0005% or less (ie, </=1 in 200,000) for both @entity1 and @entity1 younger than 40 years to 0.003% (about 1 in 33,000) for @entity1 older than 60 years. The rate is similar between @entity1 and @entity1 younger than 40 years but becomes substantially higher for @entity1 older than 40 years. For a 20-year-old individual, the lifetime risk of any selected mole transforming into @entity320 by age 80 years is approximately 0.03% (1 in 3,164) for @entity1 and 0.009% (1 in 10,800) for @entity1 . CONCLUSIONS: The risk of any particular mole becoming @entity320 is low, especially in younger individuals. However, since moles can disappear, ones that persist into old age have an increased risk of @entity528 . For young @entity1 with innumerable moles and no other associated risk factors, systematic excision of @entity75 would be of limited benefit.

The transformation rate of moles ( XXXX ) into @entity320 : a population-based estimate.

@entity1 :: ('9606', 'Species') :: ['women', 'people', 'men'] @entity320 :: ('MESH:D008545', 'Disease') :: ['melanoma', 'melanomas', 'cutaneous melanoma'] @entity75 :: ('MESH:D001927', 'Disease') :: ['benign-appearing lesions'] @entity8205 :: ('MESH:D009508', 'Disease') :: ['melanocytic nevi'] @entity528 :: ('MESH:D009410', 'Disease') :: ['malignant degeneration']
@entity8205 :: (MESH:D009508,Disease) :: ['melanocytic nevi']
