OBJECTIVE: To use a computerized administrative database to develop and validate a clinical prediction rule for the occurrence of @entity565 hospitalizations. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort. METHODS: Subjects included @entity748 @entity1 ages 3 to 64 who were continuously enrolled in the Southern California Kaiser Permanente managed care organization in both 1998 and 1999. Data were based on linkage of a hospital discharge database, diagnosis and procedures database, membership database, and prescription database. The outcome was any 1999 hospitalization with a primary diagnosis of @entity565 . The outcome was evaluated and modeled separately for @entity1 (ages 3-17) and adults (ages 18-64). RESULTS: Univariate analyses showed that hospitalized @entity1 were younger than nonhospitalized @entity1 . Adults and @entity1 hospitalized in 1999 had lower mean household incomes, were more likely to have required an emergency department visit or hospitalization in 1998, used more beta-agonists and oral corticosteroids in 1998, and had more 1998 prescribers than nonhospitalized @entity1 . In multivariable analysis, independent predictors of 1999 hospitalization in @entity1 included age and 1998 hospitalizations, beta-agonist dispensings, total anti-inflammatory dispensings, and number of prescribers. Among adults, 1998 hospitalizations and oral @entity134 dispensings as well as income were independent predictors of hospitalization in 1999. The prediction rules developed in this study identified the 11% to 13% of adults or @entity1 with an approximately 6-fold higher likelihood for being hospitalized in the following year. CONCLUSION: These models can be used to identify high-risk @entity748 @entity1 in whom targeted intervention might reduce @entity565 morbidity and cost of care.

Risk factors for XXXX hospitalizations in a managed care organization: development of a clinical prediction rule.

@entity748 :: ('MESH:D013224', 'Disease') :: ['asthmatic'] @entity565 :: ('MESH:D001249', 'Disease') :: ['asthma'] @entity1 :: ('9606', 'Species') :: ['children', 'patients'] @entity134 :: ('CHEBI:35341', 'Chemical') :: ['steroid']
@entity565 :: (MESH:D001249,Disease) :: ['asthma']
