Develop a Psychosis Risk Calculator for Chinese Mental Health Servises
Condition: Clinical High-risk
MeSH terms: Psychotic Disorders
Study type: Observational

Summary: 
      This project will use the collected clinical and biological information of high-risk groups,
      use embedded computer chips, and use big data background analysis system to comprehensively
      evaluate the risk of high-risk groups, and build a mental illness risk estimator completely
      relying on the sample data of Chinese population and with independent intellectual property
      rights.

      The calculator function and the risk calculation standard verified by the model can obtain
      the risk degree of each patient's progress to psychosis in the next two years. This
      calculator will play an important role in the prevention and treatment of psychosis.
    

Detailed description: 
      Severe mental disorders, mainly schizophrenia (SZ), affect 16 million Chinese population. At
      present, due to the lack of effective techniques and standards for early risk identification,
      the intervention opportunity for prevention and optimal efficacy is often missed.

      In previous cohort studies , it has been found that this clinical high-risk(CHR) population
      can be effectively identified before its onset. Since 2011, the project team has been relying
      on the ShangHai At Risk for Psychosis Program, 300 CHRs were enrolled in the clinic through
      screening and diagnostic interview. The baseline clinical and event-related EEG indicators of
      this cohort were collected. The cohort was followed up for 2 years, with a follow-up
      completion rate of nearly 90%, it was found that the clinical outcome of high-risk groups was
      nearly one third, and the proportion of patients would be converted to schizophrenia within 2
      years. This conversion rate is very consistent with the results of cohort studies of other
      large high-risk groups in the world. In view of this conversion ratio, many countries, such
      as the United States, have begun to use the baseline information to build prediction models,
      so as to form a psychiatric prediction tool.

      After 5 years of accumulation, the project team has sufficient data to build a psychosis risk
      prediction model suitable for Chinese people, truly realize the goal of early diagnosis and
      treatment, and further support with the integration of key identification technologies and
      big data calculation.
    

Intervention name(s): routine clinical treatment
Intervention type(s): Other
Intervention description(s): Participants will be informed that this is not a treatment study and it involves naturalistic follow-up without any extra intervention. They will otherwise follow the routine clinical treatment procedure.
Observational model: Cohort
Time perspective: Prospective
Sampling method: Non-Probability Sample
Study population: 
        Help-seeking first-visit participants will be consecutively recruited from the Shanghai
        Psychotherapy and Psychological Counselling Centre at the Shanghai Mental Health Centre.
        They will be screened for eligibility by their clinicians.
      
Keywords: calculator; conversion