Ana Mitreska: COVID -19 and challenges of compiling statistics
Speech by Ms Ana Mitreska, Vice Governor of the National Bank of North Macedonia, at the
opening of the virtual regional workshop for statisticians, 11 December 2020.
* * *
Dear colleagues, dear friends,
Let me wish you a warm, unfortunately though, virtual welcome at the regional statistical
workshop dedicated to COVID-19 and its impact on statistics in central banks. It is a "black
swan" event that recalibrated our overall attitude and approach towards everyday living, the mode
of working, and the way in which our priorities are being set. It requires acknowledgement of the
necessity for flexibility and adaptability to the "new order".
It is well known that every crisis poses challenges to statistics and statisticians. Past
crisis episodes had a common denominator, revealing data gaps or missing data necessary for
swift and concerted actions by policy makers to address the crisis. Let us recall briefly the G-20
data gaps initiative that was a "by-product" of the global financial crisis in 2009. Under its
auspices, compilation of novel statistics was enhanced and prompted, that enabled policy
makers to better assess financial and non-financial vulnerabilities, sectoral exposures, and
cross-border flows. The perimeter of financial soundness indicators was widened to better
assess financial sector vulnerabilities, cross-border linkages were better understood by the
novelties in the datasets, balance sheet sectoral data provided more in-depth knowledge on the
weaknesses in the domestic economy.
The COVID-19 pandemic is specific in essence, and therefore implies novel and
multidimensional dares for statistics in central banks. First, very similar to other episodes, it
has challenged central banks as policy makers and data users. The disruption of all economic
flows has been uncharted water asking for fast, frequent and alternative datasets, which could
reveal the state of play of the economy to which policy response should be calibrated. Let me
1
refer to the BIS conclusions on this matter that put into spotlight three key lessons.
First, the
international efforts since the global financial crisis managed to make "better-quality, more
comprehensive, flexible and integrated statistics". Granular and rich set of data was already
available, such as data on financial instruments and financial institutions, allowing all of us to
make informed decisions related to liquidity provisions and targeted changes in the regulatory
perimeter. A second lesson is that some of the data gaps remained and were further
aggravated by the crisis. One of these examples is the financial accounts data. The bold fiscal
measures and the need of the private sector to bridge over the pandemic with additional
borrowing will further elevate public and private debt. This asks for vigilance and close monitoring
of financial exposures and interlinkages of different sectors, redistribution and structuring of their
financial assets and liabilities. Third, similar to the 2009 crisis, the pandemic has pointed up that
official statistics must be complemented with alternative datasets especially in times of crisis.
Therefore, "big data" have come to the fore in the last couple of months. Google mobility and
search data, daily payment transactions data by amount and purpose are extensively used to
profile the behavior of economic agents and quantify turning points in the activity.
Yet, dissimilar to previous crisis episodes, this one challenged the statistics not only in
terms of missing data, but even more in terms of the continuity of the overall statistics
process. This was particularly the case at the very beginning of the pandemic, when severe
containment measures were introduced, lockdowns disrupted business, households, in some
cases even financial markets. Therefore the data collection process was under threat,
particularly those that rely on survey data.
Risks from partial and low quality information, low response rates, missing information
became elevated. Central bank risks, given their statistics mandate, were concentrated in the
area of compilation of external statistics. In countries where due to the structure, most data
sources were affected, solutions included setting hierarchy and focusing on the most influential
components, such as balance of payments, or external debt of the economy. Imputation
methods were also exploited to fill in the increased number of missing data, and estimate or
impute values for these missing components using available alternative data or judgement.
In some countries, ours being an example as well, the overall burden and disruption of
the statistical process was mitigated by the balanced sources of data gathering and
compilation. The compilation of external statistics, where the main pillar for data compilation and
data cross checks is the ITRS, proved to be unwavering. "The ITRS remained a reliable source
of data, as banks are operational in all countries and the majority of cross-border payments are
2
executed through bank accounts" . Nonetheless, it has to be complemented with survey data.
Their gathering required extraordinary efforts by the compilers for frequent communication with
the respondents, data quality assurance and cross checks, making compromises in the
sampling process, as well as in the modalities of receiving and processing the data. With
reference to the latest, opportunities were used to increase digitalisation allowing for greater
usage of electronic platforms for precluding any compilation process discontinuity.
The innovative approach for collection and dissemination in the "new ordinary" poses
certain risks in the near future and policy makers should be fully cognizant of that
Namely, the need for finding quick solutions, approximations, imputations could potentially
fact.
lead to substantial future data revisions that could go beyond the common ones. The sampling
biases, misspecifications and changes in trends, while assuring timely data remain one of the
main challenges for the statisticians in order to preserve statistical quality and integrity, which
has proved to be not such an easy task in these unprecedented circumstances.
Finally, in a sudden crisis situation, it is very important to recognize and act on the
opportunities that are created. In this particular situation I will make an effort to briefly
summarize some of the takeaways from the recent literature endeavors in this area. the
First,
COVID crisis is an opportunity event that should motivate us to scrutinize the existing data, make
sure that we exploit everything at our disposal and find solutions to fill the existing gaps. Second,
given the specifics of this crisis event, it is apparent that the official statistics should exploit
supplementary sources - for instance leveraging on private data and using it in a more
structured way. Internet data, data from private companies is something that is used during the
pandemic by official statistics agencies to fill the holes in times of "hibernation". Eurostat
collaborated with booking agencies, national central banks with private mobile operators and so
on. Third, exploiting the advances of digitalization as much as possible, to collect and compile
data - providing more space for digital surveys, for example. Last but not least, we must strive to
make an even greater effort to reach the users and understand their needs, explain the data and
information offered by statistical authorities.
Dear colleagues,
This online workshop will tackle some of the tingling issues weighing on the statisticians. We
might not have all the answers and solutions, but I am certain that as before, we will continue
with the efforts for compiling and disseminating timely and high quality data. I am proud to say
that in this unique period we, as a central bank managed to produce all data with no delay, by
keeping the standard quality. Stressing this is very important as these are times when we should
also promote the value of official statistics, and demonstrate this value and relevance to our
society.
Let me use this opportunity to warmly thank all of my colleagues who devotedly spent hours of
work, leveraging much on their private time, very often working remotely and joggling with this
strange context, for a sole purpose to deliver timely and high quality statistics.
I will leave you with a quote that can be used as guidance in these difficult times - "We cannot
rewrite the chapters of history already past, but we can learn from them, evolve and adapt. The
new normal may even be a better normal, certainly a different normal".
I wish you all a highly successful and productive workshop.
Thank you!
1
"Implications of COVID-19 for official statistics: A central banking perspective", B. Tissot and B. De Beer,
November 2020.
2
"Ensuring Continuity in the Production of External Sector Statistics during the Covid -19 Lockdown" - IMF
Special series on Statistical Issues to Respond to Covid-19.