Michael C Bonello: Nexus of Basel II and financial stability
Speech by Mr Michael C Bonello, Governor of the Central Bank of Malta, at the Annual
Seminar of the Institute of Financial Services (IFS), Floriana, 14 May 2010.
* * *
I would first like to thank the Institute for inviting me to their Annual Seminar, which this year
focuses on the topical, but complex subject of risk, capital and financial stability after the
financial crisis. My remarks will concentrate on the lessons learned and on some open
questions being addressed by international standard setters.
In the introduction to his recent book "Good value", Stephen Green, the Group Chairman of
HSBC Holdings plc, recalls his thoughts one day in April 2008 on the shores of Lake Como
against the background of an unfolding global financial crisis. He describes that time as one
of those moments in history when it seems as if the tectonic plates are shifting, striking at the
roots of what we had taken for granted for a quarter of a century. In his words, "There has
been a massive breakdown of trust: trust in the financial system, trust in bankers, trust in
business, trust in business leaders, trust in politicians, trust in the media, trust in the whole
process of globalization - all have been severely damaged, in rich countries and in poor
countries alike."
When I had addressed your annual dinner in November of that same year I expressed the
view that the crisis would not be over until confidence and trust were restored and the credit
channel started to function again. We are not there yet. We are still confronted by the
farreaching consequences of the sub-prime episode, which now include a full-blown sovereign
debt crisis.
It is now clear that risks had been building up over a number of years. Some derived from the
fact that corporate governance, risk management, market infrastructures for derivative
products as well as supervisory practices and regulatory frameworks had not kept pace with
the process of financial innovation. Others have been associated with an overly
accommodative monetary policy at the global level, particularly in the United States. There is
no doubt, however, that financial regulation and supervision proved inadequate.
The initial trigger of the crisis was the securitisation of sub-prime mortgages and the
originate and distribute
associated model. These products found ready buyers, but there
were significant misaligned incentives underlying the model. There were manifest conflicts of
interest, originators and brokers had limited interest in ensuring continued monitoring of
products and credit ratings were inflated, conveying a false sense of security. A euphoric
bubble thus developed, based, in Alan Greenspan's words, on "the complexity of the
interactions of asset markets and the economy", and which concealed a massive global
under-pricing of risk.
Market participants seem to have been aware of the growing risks but were unwilling to
retrench. You might recall Citibank's Chuck Prince's memorable words during the onset of
the crisis that "as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance. We're still
dancing". Market players failed to appreciate the speed at which demand could evaporate
and risk aversion could increase. This soon resulted in record-high risk premia, seized-up
interbank markets, acute liquidity and credit shortages, bank failures and a widespread loss
of confidence.
Meanwhile the high degree of financial market integration had created the premise for a
simultaneous build-up of systemic risk. Financial institutions did not internalise the costs
arising from the too-big-to-fail and too-interconnected syndrome. Central banks had been
monitoring these trends, but it turned out that the regulatory tools were not designed to
address systemic risk. Neither was the strength of the feedback loop between the financial
system and the economy fully anticipated. Unfortunately, these all proved to be critical
weaknesses.
In response to the unfolding crisis, Governments and central banks adopted aggressive
measures, including fiscal stimulus packages, bank recapitalisations and the provision of
government guarantees, and injections of huge amounts of liquidity. It was also important to
critically review the legislative and regulatory framework in order to pre-empt the recurrence
of, or at least better manage, similar situations. The de Larosière Report, mandated by the
European Commission (EC) and published in February 2009, set the scenario for reforms at
a European level. Similar work was undertaken at the global level by the Financial Stability
Board (FSB) and by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS).
This work has clearly showed that the Basel II capital requirements did not ensure an
adequate buffer to sustain an institution on a going concern basis. Confidence in regulatory
capital waned and the market started to assess bank robustness using other tools. Liquidity
measurement, for example, had been largely excluded from Basel II. Some internal risk
models were based on short-term statistical horizons that failed to capture periods of stress.
The potential of the regime to exert a strong pro-cyclical bias also became manifest.
In its efforts to address identified weaknesses, the BCBS issued two consultation documents
in December 2009, one on "Strengthening the resilience of the banking sector" and another
on an "International framework for liquidity risk measurement, standards and monitoring".
Concurrently, the EC is proposing amendments to the Capital Requirements Directive (CRD)
in order to align it with the recommendations of the BCBS.
According to these proposals the Tier 1 capital base should be sufficiently strong to ensure
that banks are in a better position to absorb losses on both a going concern and a gone
concern basis. The revised capital framework will strengthen the capital requirements for
counterparty credit risk exposures arising from derivatives, repos and securities financing
activities. As the existing regulatory ratios did not prevent institutions from taking on
excessive leverage, moreover, the proposed leverage ratio should be a welcome addition to
the regulatory toolkit. The ongoing deleveraging by banks is indeed having an adverse
impact on the flow of credit to the real economy, accentuating the pro-cyclical effect.
Financial institutions will, therefore, be required to build-up robust capital buffers during good
times, which can be drawn down during periods of stress. The proposals also promote a
more forward-looking provisioning to provide for future credit losses, and thus lessen the
procyclical effect of the current "incurred loss" method. Finally, the introduction of a global
minimum liquidity standard is foreseen that includes a stressed 30-day liquidity coverage
ratio requirement as well as a long-term structural liquidity ratio.
Moves are also underway to correct what is considered to be insufficiently transparent and
accountable behaviour by credit rating agencies. After having underestimated the risks of
mortgage-related bonds in the sub-prime saga, the agencies have recently featured in a
perverse dynamic characterised by dysfunctional markets for certain sovereign securities in
which prices do not reflect fundamentals, on the one hand, and the predictable rating
downgrades, on the other. EU regulations due to take effect later this year will require credit
rating agencies seeking to operate in Europe to register and be supervised by the proposed
European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA).
Concurrently with the significant work to strengthen the resilience of the financial system,
important changes are also being considered to improve the regulatory and supervisory
de Larosière
framework. Of particular significance is the creation, proposed by the Report, of
the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB), which will exercise macro-prudential supervision
and monitor systemic concerns, and, at the micro-prudential level, of the European System
of Financial Supervisors (ESFS). This consists of a network of national financial supervisors
working with the new European Supervisory Authorities, namely the European Banking
Authority, the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority and the European
Securities and Markets Authority.
Complementary proposals emerged from the G20 London Summit of April 2009, which
launched a global plan for recovery and reform and mandated the FSB to ensure the
consistent implementation of the G20 road-map. Ongoing work, which is expected to be
completed in the coming months, includes an impact assessment of the BCBS capital and
liquidity proposals; the development of tools to reduce the probability and impact of failure of
systemically important institutions; measures to reduce the potential of OTC derivatives
markets to act as channels of contagion; proposals to restart securitisation on a sound basis;
and promoting the full national implementation of the FSB Principles and Standards on
compensation.
At the same time, improvements are also being contemplated to the existing crisis
management tools. This entails not only ensuring that relevant and timely information is
available, through such mechanisms as the colleges of supervisors and the cross-border
stability groups, but also a resolution regime that minimises the costs to the taxpayer and the
development of internationally consistent firm-specific recovery and resolution plans. The EC
is working on a framework for cross-border crisis management covering aspects such as
early intervention, the reorganisation of ailing banks and insolvency procedures for winding
up failed banks. The possibility of introducing a levy on the financial sector for the creation of
a resolution fund, based on the polluter pays principle, is also being discussed in different
fora.
Taken together, the numerous proposals currently on the table represent the coming
together of an ambitious regulatory reform effort designed to strengthen the resilience of the
financial sector that could have far-reaching implications. It has been a commendable
example of broad consultation and deep reflection, and consequently deserving support.
Going forward, the impact assessment study results, due this summer, should provide useful
guidance as to the optimal timing and sequencing of these reforms. In this regard, care must
be taken to avoid any risk of undermining the incipient recovery, which is already threatened
by the current sovereign debt crisis. It will also be important to aim for a level-playing field
and to minimise the potential for arbitrage through harmonization, particularly in the case of
the proposed bank levy.
At the same time, we must ensure that banks, especially the larger ones, go back to their
core business of extending credit to the real economy and refrain from engaging in the kind
of risk-taking that gave rise to the recent crisis. Priority must, therefore, be given to the one
measure that is most likely to influence the banks' ability to take risk, that is the BCBS
proposals on bank capital. Capital buffers must henceforth be commensurate with the degree
of risk undertaken. It is no longer acceptable that profits are privatised and losses socialised.
In a broader context, another important challenge is to ensure that systemic risks are
addressed without unduly constraining financial innovation and integration. Finally, the
opportunity provided by the current period of reflection should also be used to examine the
possible consequences of some of the reform proposals for the functioning of financial
markets and for the implementation of monetary policy, and by extension also for the real
economy.
References
1. European Central Bank, The Incentive Structure Of The "Originate And Distribute"
Model, 2008.
2. Francis Boyer Lecture of The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy
Research, "The Challenge of Central Banking in a Democratic Society", 1996.
3. http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0132320120071003
4. The High-Level Group on Financial Supervision in the EU, 2009.
5. Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, "Strengthening the resilience of the
banking sector", 2009.
6. Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, "International framework for liquidity risk
measurement, standards and monitoring", 2009.
7. Directive 2009/111/EC of The European Parliament And Of The Council of
16 September 2009 amending Directives 2006/48/EC, 2006/49/EC and 2007/64/EC
as regards banks affiliated to central institutions, certain own funds items, large
exposures, supervisory arrangements, and crisis management. OJ, L 302,
17.11.2009, p. 97.
8. European Commission Public Consultation regarding further possible changes to
the Capital Requirements Directive ("CRD"). The consultation was closed on
4 September 2009.
9. European Commission Public Consultation regarding further possible changes to
the Capital Requirements Directive ("CRD") - launched on 26 February 2010.
10. European Commission Public Consultation regarding an EU framework for
CrossBorder Crisis Management in the Banking Sector.
11. Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central
Bank, Has the financial sector grown too big? 2010.
12. Lucas Papademos, European Central Bank Vice President, "Financial Integration,
development and stability: Lessons from the crisis", speech delivered on 12 April
2010 at the conference on "Financial integration and stability: the legacy of the
crisis".
13. Jean-Claude Trichet, European Central Bank President, ceremonial address at
"100 years of Confindustria" delivered at Parma, Italy on 10 April 2010.
14. Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central
Bank, "Monetary Policy: Recent experiences and future directions", speech
delivered at the Bank of Canada, Toronto, 9 April 2010.
15. Group of Twenty "Declaration of the Global Plan for Recovery and Reform", London,
2 April 2009.
16. Group of Twenty "Declaration on Strengthening the Financial System", London,
2 April 2009.
17. Financial Stability Board "Progress since the St. Andrews meeting in Implementing
the G20 Recommendations for Strengthening Financial Stability", 19 April 2010.
18. Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 of the European Parliament and of the Council of
16 September 2009 on credit rating agencies. OJ, l 302, 17.11.2009, p. 1.
19. Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council
establishing a European Securities and Markets Authority. Brussels, 23.09.2009,
COM(2009)503 Final.