SPEECH
DATE: 30 May 2024
SPEAKER:
First Deputy Governor Anna Breman
VENUE:
Lund University
Monetary policy decision-making1
The Riksbank has a mandate from the Swedish parliament, the Riksdag, to
maintain price stability. If inflation deviates from the target, the policy rate is our
main tool to bring inflation back to target over time.
To justify and explain our monetary policy decisions, we need to "translate
economic theory into practical policy in difficult economic situations"2. I am
deeply honoured to be awarded an honorary doctorate from the Lund University
School of Economics and Management, and I am especially touched that you
highlight specifically the ability to translate economic theory into practical policy
in your award nomination.
The past few years are an example of translating theory into practice: The
Riksbank raised the policy rate sharply in 2022 and 2023 to counteract high
inflation. The negative effects came quickly and hit many households and
businesses hard. But, only now are we seeing the positive effects in the form of
lower inflation, higher real wages and stronger purchasing power. It takes time
from when we make a monetary policy decision until it has a positive effect, and
during that time, changes take place in the economy. This can make it difficult to
see the link between the decision and the outcome.
Economic theory and research is difficult and often technically complex, but it is
also rewarding, relevant and exciting. Communication is also difficult but
rewarding. Explaining monetary policy decisions when there is great uncertainty
about the future is therefore difficult, but also rewarding - and important.
Communication is part of the monetary policy toolbox.
In my current position as a policy-maker, I am grateful to have experience both
from research and teaching in economics and from working in the financial sector.
1
I would like to thank Björn Lagerwall for excellent work on this speech, Charlotta Edler, Susanne Meyer
Söderlind and Caroline Jungner for valuable comments and Gary Watson for polished translation.
2
Leading U.S. economist and First Deputy Governor of the Riksbank new honorary doctors | Lund
University School of Economics and Management.
Postal address: SE-103 37 Stockholm, Visiting address: Brunkebergstorg 11
A central bank is a public authority, but it is also a bank and part of the research
community.
One of the strengths of central banks as policy-makers is that we have our own
research departments and interact with the research community.3 It supports us
in the work that constantly needs to happen, namely "the development of the
monetary policy discussion by introducing new aspects, such as the climate issue",
which you also highlight in your award nomination.
Three major issues in recent years - the pandemic, geopolitics and climate change
- are not typical central bank issues. They do, however, affect price stability.4
Central banks need to be able to analyse everything that affects economic
developments and inflation to make well-balanced monetary policy decisions. Too
narrow a view of what central banks should analyse can lead to poor guidance in
the monetary policy decision-making process and, in the worst case, to ill-founded
decisions.
The question I wish to focus on today is therefore: how we can ensure that
monetary policy decision-making is characterised by high quality analysis and an
openness to introducing new issues as the world around keeps changing. I will
focus on three aspects of monetary policy decision-making that are closely
interlinked:
 Central bank governance - what is the intention behind having monetary
policy decisions made by a committee?
 The risk of groupthink - how do we avoid it in monetary policy decisions?

Preparing for future challenges - how do we foster an open and
constructive discussion on monetary policy?
The Riksbank's governance - independence, collective
decision-making and external evaluation
Let me start by explaining the governance structure of the Riksbank. There is an
important similarity with academia, which is that both central banks and
university faculties make decisions collectively.
The Riksbank is led by the Executive Board, consisting of five people. The
Executive Board votes on monetary policy. But, it also collectively decides on
decisions of strategic importance on the central bank operations including
decisions on financial stability, cash provision and payment systems. At present,
as the security policy situation has deteriorated after Russia's illegal invasion of
Ukraine, there is an increased focus on the central bank's role in maintaining
payments during peacetime crises and states of heightened alert. The new
Sveriges Riksbank Act gives the Riksbank greater responsibility and new tools to
deliver on this task.
The Riksbank is a public authority under the Swedish Parliament, the Riksdag, and
has been since the Riksbank was founded in 1668, just two years after Lund
University. However, the governance of the Riksbank has changed over the
centuries. The high inflation of the 1970s and 1980s and the deep economic crisis
of the early 1990s led to the introduction of an inflation target. In 1999, the
Riksbank was granted constitutional independence.
The Riksdag appoints the General Council of the Riksbank, which has eleven
members. The composition of the Council changes after each election to reflect
the composition of the Riksdag. The Council appoints the five members of the
Executive Board, i.e. the Governor and the deputy governors. The General Council
meets with the Executive Board every month and has full insight into all of the
Riksbank's activities. The committee members have five- or six-year terms of
office that are longer than the parliamentary terms to ensure political
independence to decide on monetary policy.
With a high degree of independence comes the need for transparency and
evaluation. The work of the Riksbank, both monetary policy and other activities, is
scrutinised and evaluated by several bodies: the General Council's auditors, the
Swedish National Audit Office and the Riksdag Committee on Finance. In addition,
starting in 2023, the Committee on Finance now evaluates monetary policy
annually with the support of external academic assessors. And about every five
years, an evaluation is also carried out by international academics and
policymakers.
On governance, the institutional structure does provide independence to make
difficult decisions on monetary policy, but we are evaluated and accountable for
our decisions.
The monetary policy decision-making process
Let me move on to the decision-making process. There are three facts that
characterise monetary policy-making. First, it takes time from when we make a
monetary policy decision until it has a positive effect. Second, there is always
considerable uncertainty about the future. Third, our decisions can have a major
impact on households and businesses. The central bank therefore makes
monetary policy decisions based on observations of - and forecasts for -
economic developments.
Under such circumstances, collective decision-making has both strengths and
weaknesses. It is a strength to be able to seek advice and learn from other
decision-makers, but at the same time, this risks leading to groupthink. Let me
therefore discuss the monetary policy decision-making process from a
psychological perspective, focusing on the work of the decision-making
committee.
My reflections are based on a new Economic Commentary that I have written with
my colleague at the Riksbank, Björn Lagerwall, Senior Adviser in the Monetary
Policy Department. It discusses the role of psychological factors in monetary
policy more generally and the subject of behavioural economics, which integrates
psychology and economics.5 An important part of behavioural economics is how
we view risk and uncertainty6, which is highly relevant for monetary policy
decision-making. It is a question of understanding both your own decisions and
how households and businesses act when there is great uncertainty about the
future.
My own doctoral thesis was in the field of behavioural economics. My interest in
economics was born during the 1990s crisis and deep recession in Sweden.7 When
I started my PhD in the autumn of 2001, I planned to focus on macroeconomics and
international economics, but the macroeconomic models of the time were based
8
on representative rational agents, often referred to as homo economicus.
Instead, I became interested in decision-making under risk and uncertainty. My
thesis built on experiments and empirical research based on theories from
behavioural economics.9 I have benefited from my knowledge of decision-making
under risk and uncertainty during my time on the Executive Board. Let me
elaborate on what we know about this from research and practical experience.
Groupthink risks shaping monetary policy decisions
It is a dominant practice among central banks to have a committee make
monetary policy decisions.
Traditional economics literature often mentions a few reasons why groups make
better monetary policy decisions than individuals.10 One argument is that the
amount of information available increases when more people participate.
Another is that an average of several people's decisions tends to be better than a
single person's decision. Finally, decisions tend to be less extreme if they are
taken by several people.
One question to ask is why there are five members of the Executive Board and not
more or fewer. As you may know, the new Riksbank Act that entered into force at
the beginning of 2023 reduced the number from six to five. The inquiry into a new
Riksbank Act discussed this issue11, referring to research indicating that group
decision-making seems to work best when there are about five people involved. In
a balanced assessment, the inquiry proposed a reduction from six to five
members.
However, the social psychology literature has also shown several pitfalls to be
12
aware of when making decisions in groups. And they can apply to monetary
policy decisions within a committee as well.13 Let's say a committee is faced with a
choice between two monetary policy options: keeping the policy rate unchanged
or cutting it by 0.25 percentage points. If one member leans towards the option of
cutting the policy rate by 0.25 percentage points, but all other members prefer an
unchanged rate, conformity may cause the member to also vote in favour of an
unchanged rate - against their own convictions. Groupthink could arise from the
committee becoming very close-knit, ignoring dissenting views both inside and
outside the central bank.
To reduce the risk of groupthink in the monetary policy decision-making process,
it is important that members of the policy committee have different backgrounds
and experiences. Members should be able to express differing opinions, and
discussions should be characterised by respect and willingness to listen to others.
The possibility to enter a reservation against majority decisions is key. It is an
important mechanism to encourage constructive discussion in committees. In
recent years, the debate on social psychology aspects of monetary policy
decisionmaking has gained renewed momentum, partly as a result of the high and sharp
rise in inflation in 2021 and 2022.14
In our Commentary, we also discuss how life experiences can influence economic
decisions.15 Dramatic economic events affect individuals for a long time. This also
applies to episodes of high inflation.16 For example, there are indications that
members of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee who had
experienced the Great Inflation in the 1970s and 1980s favoured tighter monetary
policy than younger members who had not.17
Let me give two concrete examples from recent years of how decisions may have
been influenced by groupthink and life experiences: one positive and one
negative. Both are related to decisions we made in the context of the pandemic.
At the start of the pandemic, there were few historical examples and models to
use to analyse the impact of a pandemic on the economy and inflation. There was
also uncertainty about how long the pandemic would last, and if and when any
vaccines might become available. At the same time, there was a strong need to
act to avoid a financial crisis and counteract the negative economic effects of the
pandemic on the economy. While learning from other central banks is important,
there is a risk of groupthink between and within central banks when facing
decisions under great uncertainty.
The Federal Reserve and the ECB both bought assets extensively during the
pandemic. The Riksbank also did so, to prevent the pandemic from triggering a
financial crisis and a deep economic downturn, and to contribute to price stability.
In Sweden, inflation fell below zero in April 2020.
The Executive Board decisions in March 2020 and also the decisions to increase
asset purchases in June 2020 were consensus decisions. However, I entered a
reservation against the additional asset purchases in November 2020, as did my
colleague Martin Flodén. This is a positive example of avoiding groupthink on
asset purchases.
The negative example is from February 2022. In the aftermath of the pandemic,
global energy prices were increasing and inflation had started to rise, mainly in
the United States but also CPIF inflation in Sweden. Core inflation, CPIF excluding
energy, remained low. The Executive Board decided to leave the policy rate
unchanged at our meeting in February, and our forecast was that the policy rate
would remain unchanged for a couple more years.
My assessment is that the international debate on "transitory inflation"
influenced our decision and we did not sufficiently appreciate how much
supplydemand imbalances could affect inflation going forward.
In addition, the experience of many years with below-target inflation may also
have caused us to underestimate the risk of inflation rising. We should have
changed the policy rate path to reflect the changed risks to the inflation outlook.
The decision on the policy rate and the policy rate path was unanimous. Still, we
again managed to avoid groupthink on the asset purchases at that same meeting.
Three of six members (myself, Henry Ohlsson and Martin Flodén) entered
reservations against continued reinvestment of assets and wanted to see a faster
tapering of holdings.
In hindsight, it is easy to be self-critical. Evaluations of monetary policy should
always be based on the information available at the time of the decision. At the
February 2022 meeting, we had information on inflation from December 2021
when core inflation was falling. In addition, this was before Russia's illegal
invasion of Ukraine. Moreover, Swedish GDP has been revised upwards
subsequently, so demand now looks to have been much stronger than according
to the information we had at the time of the meeting. But, we should have taken
better account of the special circumstances that prevailed after the pandemic,
just as we always need to recognise that, going forward, historical correlations will
not always be a good guide in a changing world.18 These are examples of the
lessons learnt from the pandemic, a topic extensively discussed at the Executive
Board. I very much appreciate my colleagues in the Executive Board as well as the
constructive cooperation we currently enjoy.
Let me conclude my comments on groupthink by emphasising the importance of
academic research to avoid groupthink in policy-making. It is important for us to
both have pressure from researchers within our central bank - to sharpen the
internal debates and act as "devil's advocates" - and from outside the central
bank - as part of the public debate and to keep us accountable for our decisions.
And, researchers are crucial for the last point I want to discuss on "preparing for
future challenges - how do we foster an open and constructive discussion on
monetary policy".
Developing the monetary policy debate and
introducing new aspects
Research in economics has evolved after crises. After the financial crisis, there was
an increased focus on financial markets and how they should be included in
theoretical models to better understand the link between the real economy and
the financial economy.
Economic policy frameworks also tend to change after crises. The current
frameworks in Sweden were established after the crisis of the 1990s. The inflation
target, the industrial agreement and the fiscal policy framework have been the
cornerstones of Swedish economic policy ever since. Politicians who were
themselves involved in managing the crisis of the 1990s often reiterate the need
for stable public finances and the value of low and stable inflation. This is in line
with the importance of life experience for economic decisions, which I discussed
earlier.
Currently, intensive academic work is underway to understand the high inflation
of recent years. This has led to a wave of new research, often empirical, analysing,
among other things, the pricing behaviour of firms and the behaviour of
households. How households perceive inflation is important for their behaviour
and this in turn affects inflation. I recently gave a speech on the psychology of
inflation based almost entirely on recent new research.19
Still, it is unfortunate that we have to go through a serious crisis to get a better
understanding of how households perceive inflation20 and form their inflation
expectations. It is also problematic that we had to experience a global financial
crisis before research focused on new models that better link the real economy
and financial markets. And it would have been better if Sweden had not had to
endure a prolonged crisis to implement the economic reforms of the 1990s.
Despite several economists putting forward such proposals for a long time, it was
only in the wake of the crisis that they were realised.
That said, it is very easy to draw a parallel with central banks and the climate
issue. In my first speech at the Riksbank in 2020, I said that "other policy areas
certainly have more effective tools than central banks to reduce carbon emissions
and limit global warming". The idea that climate change is of importance to
central banks is not to replace actions by governments that have better and more
efficient tools to deal with the issue. However, central banks can contribute within
their mandates: firstly, through research on the impact of climate change on the
economy and inflation and the adjustments needed to address it, and secondly,
by managing risks from climate change to the assets on their own balance sheet.
I would like to emphasise that my ambition to bring new aspects of monetary
policy to the fore is not about mission creep, that is, taking on tasks that are not
within our remit. Our mandate is price stability. To achieve price stability, we need
to understand climate-related risks in order to make accurate forecasts going
forward.
As I mentioned earlier: "The central bank makes monetary policy decisions based
on observations of - and forecasts for - economic developments." However, the
forecasts often rely on backward-looking data to estimate historical correlations.
In some areas, historical correlations provide little guidance, whether we need to
deal with the economic impact of a pandemic, geopolitical conflicts or climate
change. Then we need new research, supported by economic theory, to guide
forward-looking monetary policy. And again, this is an area where close
collaboration between the research community and central banks is needed.
Concluding thoughts
Today, I have emphasised that it is a strength for central banks as policy-makers
to be close to the research community. We can incorporate new findings and
collaborate with researchers to improve models and provide advice on decisions.
Researchers improve monetary policy decision-making by contributing to a
constructive discussion.
Lund University has a long tradition of contributing to the monetary policy debate
and economic policy in Sweden, from Knut Wicksell to the present-day faculty. I
would encourage all students and young researchers to continue this tradition. In
an environment with geopolitical tensions and new technical tools that can spread
and amplify misinformation, your voice is needed more than ever.
I would like to conclude by emphasising how honoured and grateful I am to be
awarded an honorary doctorate by the Lund University School of Economics and
Management. My aim is to continue to try to contribute to the development of
the monetary policy debate and to introduce new aspects, whether it is climate
change and behavioural economics, or other topics that give new perspectives on
monetary policy.
For me as a policy-maker, I personally believe that one of the greatest privileges is
the access I have to high quality research, from our own research department at
the Riksbank, at international conferences where policy-makers and researchers
meet, and when I get the opportunity to visit and learn from researchers and
students at universities.
The Riksbank is both a public agency and a bank. And, we are also part of the
research community. This is what enables our work to "translate economic theory
into practical policy in difficult economic situations". That is the essence of
monetary policy decision-making.
Thank you.
References
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