Haron Sirima: Improving the quality of data through statistical surveys
Remarks by Dr Haron Sirima, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Kenya, at the launch
of the 2015 Foreign Investments Survey, Nairobi, 12 May 2015.
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Cabinet Secretary to the National Treasury;
Chief Executives of State Agencies and Private Enterprises;
Representatives of Media Houses;
Ladies and Gentlemen.
1. Welcome to the breakfast meeting to kick off the 2015 Foreign Investment Survey
under the Enhanced Data Dissemination Initiative Project. This project was initiated
in 2010 with the objective to improve the quality of data through statistical
surveys, such as the one we are launching this morning.
2. The purpose of this meeting is to raise awareness among the enterprises that will
be covered by the survey to ensure its success. It also provides an opportunity to
share our experience on past surveys and receive feedback.
3. Comprehensive, accurate and timely data is a prerequisite for better policy and
strategic decision making, particularly in the quest to attract foreign direct
investment to Kenya. It is therefore important that the exercise is carried out
flawlessly. The data collected through past surveys has been incorporated in the
Balance of Payments statistics and also enabled the compilation of Kenya's
International Investment Position (i.e. the stock position foreign assets and
liabilities).
4. Ladies and Gentlemen, Kenya has made good progress in improving the quality of
its Balance of Payments statistics. This would not have been achieved within the set
timeframe without the technical and financial support extended by the World Bank,
the International Monetary Fund and the Department for International
Development (DfID). The Macroeconomic and Financial Management Institute
of Eastern and Southern Africa (MEFMI) has also been instrumental in providing
the necessary software for processing the data generated through the surveys and
in capacity building both at the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) and
the Central Bank (CBK). Indeed, the 2015 Foreign Investment Survey will be
conducted and financed exclusively by both KNBS and CBK.
5. While the overall position on Kenya's Balance of Payments has been positive, the
current account has weakened over time on account of both rapidly growing
capital imports associated with the momentum of economic growth. Kenya's export
growth has been sluggish while the tourism sector, our traditional source of foreign
exchange earnings, has been reflecting negative growth rate. According to the
latest Economic Survey, Kenya's current account deficit stands at 10 percent of
GDP, financed mainly through capital and financial inflows. The widening current
account deficit continues to exert pressure on the Kenya Shilling exchange rate.
6. Over the past four months, the Kenya Shilling exchange rate to the US Dollar
has come under unusually intense pressure on account of a strong US Dollar
and enhanced seasonal corporate demands. The strengthening of the US Dollar
globally largely reflects the strong recovery of the USA economy, the uncertainty
around the timing of the first interest rate increase in the US following the tapering of
Quantitative Easing (QE), expectations of lower interest rates in the Eurozone
following adoption of QE by the European Central Bank in late January 2015, and
the weak Eurozone growth recovery. During the period, the Kenya Shilling
exchange rate against the US Dollar depreciated by 5 percent. At the Global
Market it is quite volatile with many countries experiencing strong capital
outflows. The Nigerian Naira (9%), Uganda Shilling (9%), Tanzania Shilling
(4%), Ghanian Cedi (20%) and even the Euro (11%) were hard hit.
7. What is the Central Bank doing to stem volatility? First, the Bank adopted a
tight monetary policy operations stance to minimise any likelihood of arbitrage
activities between the interbank and foreign exchange markets - the average
interbank rate now stands at 10.4 percent. This is in excess of 250 basis points
above the CBR. Second, the Bank continues to intervene in the foreign exchange
market through direct sale of foreign exchange to commercial banks both to ease
demand pressures and drain Kenya Shilling liquidity. In addition to dampening
volatility, the interventions slowed down the rate of depreciation of the exchange
rate. The Bank also enhanced the prudential guidelines of banks on foreign
exchange dealings to promote transparency and safeguard the integrity of the
financial market. The Bank has and will continue to actively use moral suasion with
the banking industry to stem expectations.
8. Going forward, the intense seasonal demand pressure on the Kenya Shilling
exchange rate is slowly dissipating though there is evidence of speculation in the
foreign exchange market. In response, the Bank will scale-up OMO to tighten
liquidity further to stem expectations. The resilient diaspora remittances and
recovery of the global economy will support exchange rate stability. In addition,
the Central Bank's foreign exchange reserves coupled with a precautionary
facility from the IMF are adequate to stem volatility. The Central Bank will continue
to monitor developments in the foreign exchange market but allow genuine
demand and supply factors to determine the level of the Kenya Shilling exchange
rate. Finally, measures to promote exports including foreign direct investment
are critical to the long term stability of the Kenya Shilling exchange rate.
9. In closing, let me take this opportunity to thank the over 300 private enterprises
that responded to the year 2013 foreign investment survey questionnaires.
The response rate of 75 percent was impressive and we look forward to better this
performance in this year's survey. The time spent building this critical information
base is for our mutual benefit and the people of Kenya.
10. It is now my pleasure to invite the Cabinet Secretary, National Treasury to make his
remarks and official launch the 2015 Foreign Investment Survey.
Thank you.