Lucas Papademos: Education, financial markets and economic growth
Speech by Mr Lucas Papademos, Vice-President of the European Central Bank, at the
35th Economics Conference on "Human Capital and Economic Growth" organised by the Austrian
National Bank, Vienna, 21 May 2007.
* * *
I. Introduction
"Upon the education of the people of this country the fate of this country depends", British Prime
Minister Benjamin Disraeli observed over 100 years ago with great prescience. Today, his insightful
observation about the crucial importance of education and human capital for the welfare of countries
and the performance of their economies is widely recognised, especially in all advanced countries with
their increasingly knowledge-based economies. In Europe, the Lisbon strategy has placed education
high on the policy agenda - together with some key structural reforms in product, labour and capital
markets - in order to make Europe a more competitive, knowledge-based and dynamic economy. It is,
therefore, highly appropriate and very much appreciated that the Österreichische Nationalbank has
devoted its 35th Economics Conference to the topic of "Human capital and economic growth", and I
am delighted to have been invited to address this distinguished audience.
Education contributes significantly to economic growth and welfare through various channels and in
many ways. [SLIDE 2] In the first part of my presentation, I will review these channels and assess their
relative importance on the basis of the available empirical evidence about the quantitative significance
of the effects of education on a number of key determining factors of growth. In particular, I will
examine the role of education in accounting for differences in economic growth across countries and
regions, as well as for the growth performance of different sectors within our economies. In the second
part of my speech, I will address the role of the financial sector in fostering economic growth,
concentrating on how the development, efficiency and stability of financial markets can contribute to
the dynamism and growth of other sectors and of the economy as a whole. I will then explore how
education, research and the diffusion of knowledge have supported and facilitated the development of
financial markets; and how education can further contribute to fully realising the benefits of financial
innovation, thereby supporting through this channel, our economies' growth performance. Finally, I will
draw some conclusions regarding the implications of our analysis for public policy and for the
effectiveness of monetary policy.
II. Education and economic growth
Through which channels does education foster economic growth? Economists have tried to explain
the large cross-country variation in economic growth and, more generally, welfare, in terms of
differences in the contribution of factors of production and their overall efficiency. Growth theories -
both the extended neoclassical model and the new "endogenous" growth theories - specify the
economy's aggregate output as a function of capital, employed labour services, that is hours worked
by the economically active population, and a measure of technological progress. Capital is broadly
defined to include both physical and human capital. Technological progress is usually described as the
process that determines how efficiently all factors of production are used, that is, it measures total
factor productivity. This general theoretical specification implies that the growth rate of per capita
aggregate output can be expressed as the sum of real investment (capital deepening), human capital
accumulation, the rate of change of labour utilisation and total-factor-productivity (TFP) growth. [SLIDE
3] The so-called "growth accounting" framework employed in empirical analyses, which need not be
based on concrete analytical foundations, uses the same, or a similar, decomposition of output growth
in terms of its basic determinants. This analytical framework provides a useful means for examining
and assessing the various channels through which education fosters growth.1 It should be kept in
mind, however, that this framework depends on several simplifying assumptions that may impose
limitations on the analysis. It also does not take explicitly into account the potential effects on
economic efficiency of "social capital" and human development; that is, the set of institutions and
social values that underpin the functioning of markets and can influence the behaviour (and collective
actions) of economic agents.
Education affects economic growth both directly since it is a key determinant or component of human
capital, as well as indirectly by influencing the other factors of production and total factor productivity.
[SLIDE 4] Human capital is a broad concept which is determined by education - the quantity and
quality of schooling - as well as by on-the-job training and learning, cognitive skills and the health
status of the labour force (as proxied, for example, by life expectancy).
Direct effects of education on growth
The direct positive effects of education, and more generally of human capital, on growth have been
demonstrated by empirical analyses employing both macroeconomic and microeconomic data.2
[SLIDE 5] Several empirical studies show that more affluent countries are also richer in human capital.
[SLIDE 6] This is illustrated in the chart on slide 6 that shows the relationship between the average
years of schooling (using data from the most recent update of the Barro-Lee dataset) and the real per
capita GDP in the year 2000 (using data from the latest update of the Penn World Tables). To further
illustrate this positive relationship, the next two charts on slide 7 [SLIDE 7] show that countries in
which the general education level has improved significantly over the past decades have also
experienced faster economic growth.3 For example, East Asian "tiger" economies (South Korea,
Taiwan, Hong Kong, Malaysia) have not only been the fastest growing economies in the post
worldwar II period, but they are also those countries where the average duration of school education for the
population as a whole has increased most. Recent research has tried to improve the quality of
crosscountry schooling data (e.g. Cohen and Soto, 2007; Domenech and de la Fuente, 2006). These
studies, based on improved statistics, find that there is a stronger correlation between improvements
in schooling and growth, even when other features of economic development are taken into account
(such as physical capital accumulation or time-invariant country characteristics).
Correlation, however, does not necessarily imply causality. After all, improvements in education and
faster growth may be both influenced by other country factors, such as institutional infrastructure,
social capital, geography or culture. The correlation between schooling and growth (shown in the
previous charts) may also be driven by "reverse causality" from growth to education, as individuals
invest more in education when the economy's growth performance and prospects are good. It is thus
difficult to establish causality employing cross-country data, because it is almost impossible to control
for all the variables that could affect economic performance. [SLIDE 8] Nevertheless, using detailed
data on wages for individuals and households, a vast literature in the field of labour economics has
provided ample evidence that there is a significantly positive and robust causal relationship between
the years of formal schooling (at the primary, secondary and tertiary level) and wages. This evidence
suggests that the private, or so-called "Mincerian"4, returns on education are within a range of
6.5%9%, that is, an additional year of formal schooling is associated with an increase in wages of 7.5% on
average over the working life. The richness of micro data also enables us to address the key issue of
causality. Labour economists have employed sophisticated econometric techniques and innovative
methodological approaches (such as studies of twins who followed different education and life paths)
to establish causality between education and private returns.5 Moreover, the social return to education
- that is the benefit of increases in the human capital of the population for the economy and society as
a whole - will, in all likelihood, be further increased as a result of so-called human capital externalities.
Such externalities arise, for example, through knowledge spillovers from more educated workers to
less educated ones.6
The quality of education
Education, however, is only one component of the broader concept of human capital, which also
involves on-the-job training and learning as well as cognitive skills. Moreover, the quality of education
is at least as important as the years of formal schooling.7 These factors are economically significant.
For example, the returns on training could be as high as 5%, which is a rate comparable to the range
of estimates for the private returns on the years of formal schooling of between 6.5% and 9%. There is
also plenty of evidence that points to the importance of the quality of education. [SLIDE 9] This is
usually measured by pupil-teacher ratios, by public spending on education, the educational level of
teachers, as well as students' performance in internationally standardised tests. Measures of the
quality of the labour force (at the macro level), based on internationally comparable test scores,
explain a significantly larger proportion of the cross-country variation in growth rates than the simpler
measure of average years of schooling which is usually employed.8 Micro studies using individual data
on wages also emphasize the importance of labour quality. Interestingly, a number of international
studies also suggest that, with regard to explaining the impact of education on growth, the quality of
schooling is far more important than the quantity of schooling. Put simply, spending time at school is
not enough; it is what you learn, how you learn it, and from whom that very much counts.
The crucial importance of labour quality for Europe's economic performance is also corroborated by
recent research at the ECB (Schwerdt and Turunen, 2007) which suggests that improvements in
labour quality have made a substantial positive contribution to labour productivity growth in the euro
area. Due mainly to a notable increase in college education, the average annual growth rate of labour
quality in the euro area is estimated at about 0.5% in the twenty-year period 1984-2005. The relative
contribution of the improvement in labour quality has also increased over time, accounting for up to
one fourth of euro area labour productivity growth since 2000. What is behind the observed - and
highly welcome - steady improvement in the quality of the euro area workforce? First, more educated
workers work longer hours.9 Second, both the business cycle and changes in the structural features of
the labour market have influenced the human-capital composition of the euro area workforce. In the
late 1990s, labour quality growth moderated, mainly reflecting entry into the labour market of low
skilled workers. You may recall the debates about the "jobless recovery" and the labour market policy
pursued at that time which aimed in particular at increasing the employment intensity of growth.
Indirect effects of education on growth
Education influences economic growth not only directly - as explained thus far - but also indirectly,
[SLIDE 10] through its effects on a number of other growth determinants, notably: labour force
participation, overall labour utilisation, total factor productivity, the so-called skill-bias of technological
progress and the complementarity - or substitutability - of physical capital and skills. I will briefly
discuss each of these in turn. First, education enhances growth by raising labour utilisation (and,
specifically, the number of hours worked per worker). [SLIDE 11] The higher the education level, the
higher the participation in the labour force: in other words, if people are more educated, they are more
likely to seek or hold a job. [SLIDE 12] Let me provide you some evidence for this proposition from the
euro area: in 2006, total labour force participation ranged from 70.1% for persons with below
secondary education, to 84.3% for persons with above secondary education and 90.6% for persons
with tertiary education. In addition, a higher level of education is usually connected with a higher
percentage of the labour force being employed. In 2006, the employment rate in the euro area was
83.5% for persons with tertiary education, while only 57.2% for persons with below secondary
education.
A most significant and far-reaching contribution of human capital to the European economy and other
advanced economies stems from its positive effect on total-factor-productivity (TFP). [SLIDE 13]
Empirical studies suggest that countries that are richly endowed with human capital tend to better use
existing technologies and firms and entrepreneurs in these countries also innovate much more.
Building on an early contribution of Richard Nelson and Nobel Prize winner Edmund Phelps (Nelson
and Phelps, 1966), the new "endogenous" growth theories have stressed the role of human capital in
sustaining long-term growth, because it enables these economies to catch up with the technological
frontier and innovate.10 In line with these theories, which have also emphasised the importance of
research & development and entrepreneurial activity, cross-country empirical studies show that human
capital accelerates progress towards the technological frontier (e.g. Benhabib and Spiegel, 1994).
There are valuable lessons for the advanced EU countries, because the contribution of human capital
is especially important for economies that are closer the technological frontier and thus depend more
on innovation rather than imitation.11
The role of human capital, and education in particular, in fostering innovation and a rapid adoption of
technological advances has been crucial over the past decades, when technology has been "biased"
towards highly-skilled labour. There is now a consensus that in the 1980s and 1990s (and even in the
1970s) technological progress has been favouring educated and highly trained workers.12 For
example, the private return on education in Europe and the US rose from about 6.5%-7.5% in the early
1970s to 10% in the early 1990s. This increase was almost exclusively driven by college graduates
and highly trained workers, who were the beneficiaries of the higher skill-bias of recent technological
innovation. If we analyse this rather general result in greater depth, and assess the effect of education
in facilitating technology adoption and the skill context of recent technological innovation, we find that
countries with abundant human capital managed to better utilise technological innovations in
skillintensive sectors in the 1980s and 1990s (Ciccone and Papaioannou, 2005). And it was precisely
those industries that experienced higher total productivity growth globally. [SLIDE 14] The chart on
slide 14 illustrates this point. It shows the relationship between the cross-country marginal return on
human capital at the industry level and the industry skill-intensity. There is a clear positive relationship
between the effect of schooling for industry growth and the skill-bias of an industry. To cut a long story
short, education appears to be far more important for the growth of R&D intensive sectors such as
drugs and pharmaceuticals and computer and office equipment than footwear and textiles. [SLIDE 15]
The next chart exhibits a similar relationship but uses educational quality as a proxy for human capital.
The results are even more striking, indicating that educated societies were more successful in
adopting the R&D intensive technologies of the 1980s and 1990s.13
Finally, human capital may foster growth due to so-called capital-skill complementarities. [SLIDE 16]
While capital complements both skilled and unskilled labour, it tends to be more relevant for tasks and
sectors that use skilled labour more intensively. Recent work is supportive to this hypothesis.
Research using very detailed data for the United States show that capital invested in information and
communication technologies (ICT) strongly complements skilled workers in performing complex tasks,
while it substitutes low-skilled workers in manual tasks. Similarly, studies on the adoption of computers
in the US over the past three decades clearly shows that computerisation is associated with reduced
labour input of routine manual tasks and increased labour input of non-routine tasks.14 This also
highlights the importance for Europe to invest in both human and physical capital, since their positive
effects on growth will most likely be mutually reinforcing, and thus greater.
III. Education, financial development and economic performance
One sector which has undergone a rapid transformation in the past decades, and especially since the
1990s, partly as a result of the large-scale adoption of advanced information and communication
technologies, is the financial sector, where the complementarity between human capital and physical
capital can be expected to be particularly large. The financial sector has also played a central role in
fostering economic growth in both advanced and emerging economies. This role has been supported
and facilitated by education in a broad sense - involving both teaching and research in the fields of
finance and the new technologies - and by the effective use of the acquired knowledge in practice.
For these reasons, I would like to focus now on the relationship between financial sector development
and economic growth, and the contribution of education to the development, efficient functioning and
stability of financial markets.
What are the mechanisms through which the financial sector fosters economic growth? [SLIDE 17] In
theory, the financial system can affect economic growth by influencing the investment and saving
decisions of economic agents and by fostering innovation and productivity. A well-functioning financial
system should (i) improve the available information on investment opportunities and reduce
informational asymmetries; (ii) facilitate the diversification and management of risk; (iii) contribute to
better corporate governance; (iv) mobilise and pool savings; and (v) foster the exchange of goods and
services. The references to these functions highlights key features of the financial intermediation
process, such as information availability and transformation, risk diversification and management and
corporate governance, that clearly indicate the central role of education, knowledge and technological
(ICT) advances in the development and efficient functioning of financial markets. And the better a
financial system performs these functions - that is, the more developed and efficient it is - the greater
its contribution to economic growth.
The empirical evidence supporting this proposition - that financial development and integration
promote economic growth - is substantial.15 Numerous studies have shown that countries with more
liquid capital markets and developed banking systems grow on average faster, and that financial
sector reforms and financial liberalisation policies positively affect GDP growth and investment. For
example, evidence from emerging and developing countries shows that financial liberalisation policies
are followed by a 0.5%-1% increase in investment and a significant fall in the cost of capital (by 100
basis points on average). More generally, the evidence from cross-country and country-specific
studies (in both developed and emerging economies) shows that deregulation, privatisation and
financial development result in an acceleration of growth and a sustained increase in total factor
productivity (e.g. Bekaert, Harvey, and Lundblad, 2006). Financial development is especially beneficial
for industries which for technological reasons depend predominantly on external finance (Rajan and
Zingales, 1998; Guiso, Jappeli, Padula, and Pagano, 2005).
There is another important channel through which a well-developed financial system fosters innovation
and sustained growth: by facilitating the rapid re-allocation of capital from declining industries to
fastgrowing sectors, and, in this way, raising aggregate productivity in the economy.16 [SLIDE 18] Recent
studies have confirmed this proposition which was first put forward one hundred years ago by a great
Austrian, Joseph Schumpeter. He was among the first to emphasise the catalytic role of
welldeveloped financial intermediaries in the process of "creative destruction". The efficient functioning of
this Schumpeterian capital reallocation mechanism is especially relevant in advanced economies,
such as the euro area, where the promotion of entrepreneurship and openness to competition are key
to raising productivity and growth.17 Recent empirical research at the ECB demonstrates that the
larger and more developed the financial markets are, the greater is the efficiency with which capital is
reallocated across sectors. The two charts on slide 19 [SLIDE 19] show the relationship between a
measure of capital efficiency and an indicator of financial development for a sample of 65 countries
and for the OECD sample of high-income countries. The higher a country scores on the vertical axis,
the faster its industries respond to investment opportunities; the horizontal axis denotes the size of the
financial market: the upward slope of the line clearly indicates that capital is reallocated more
efficiently in financially advanced countries.18
Financial development is thus manifestly beneficial for growth. But what is the role of education and
research in this process? It would be useful to investigate further the relationship between education
and (ICT) technological advances, on the on hand, and financial development and economic growth,
on the other. Conceptually, such a link appears plausible, if not perfectly clear. Progress in the theory
of finance and management, employing mathematical and statistical techniques, combined with the
exponential growth of computing power and the diffusion of information and communication
technologies - which made the application of theoretical advances technically feasible - have
supported the creation of new, innovative, sometimes complex, financial instruments and the
development of alternative investment vehicles. Market participants - financial institutions and
investors - further elaborated this knowledge, initially developed in and learned from universities, and
applied it in practice, fruitfully interacting with centres of higher education. In addition, the education
pertaining to the organisation, management and governance of firms also contributed to financial
development and enhanced productive efficiency. The increasing breadth and sophistication of
financial markets, in turn, have been conducive to economic growth, for the reasons I outlined above.
Intuition and anecdotal evidence suggest that these are reasonable propositions. It would be useful to
examine the available evidence in a systematic manner and try to quantify and estimate the
contribution of education and research to the development and efficiency of the financial system and
the resulting direct and indirect effects on total productivity growth. It would also be valuable to
examine how education and the diffusion of knowledge on risk measurement, assessment and
management can help to better safeguard financial stability, by enhancing the resilience of the
financial system to shocks and to the potential materialisation of risks associated with the
intermediation process. And the outcome of such analysis could perhaps be discussed in a future
OeNB conference on education, financial development and economic growth.
Financial education and literacy
Needless to say, this is a very broad theme. But I would like to point to an additional, important issue
concerning the link between education and financial development which has attracted attention
recently and let to some interesting findings. This pertains to the fact that it is not only the education
and sophistication of bankers, brokers, analysts, asset managers, or risk management specialists that
determines the extent to which the full benefits of financial development and risk diversification can be
reaped; it is also the financial education and literacy of all savers and investors.19 [SLIDE 20] And on
that front, I am afraid, the news is not good: the evidence indicates that even in advanced countries,
financial illiteracy is widespread. For example, a recent study in the United States (Lussardi and
Mitchell, 2006) found that on average only 50% of those close to retirement (aged 50+) could correctly
answer two simple questions regarding interest compounding and inflation; the scores were worse
when questions about risk diversification were raised. Evidence from other industrial countries is
similarly alarming. Of course, these averages conceal differences: more affluent people with higher
education, especially those with college education, tend to be more financially literate than people
from lower-income groups. But this fact is no solace.
The implications of financial illiteracy are far from negligible. Proper retirement planning, the ability to
exploit diversification opportunities and the propensity to invest in high-return and high-risk assets is
more widespread among financially literate households (Lussardi and Mitchell, 2006, 2007; and
Calvet, Campbell and Sodini, 2005). Especially in the context of ageing populations and the expected
progressive shift away from public pension provision, based on pay-as-you-go schemes, to privately
funded schemes where people have to assume responsibility for their own retirement savings,
enhancing financial literacy becomes essential. Aristotle's wisdom that "education is the best provision
for old age", understood also in this specific sense, therefore still holds today; and it should provide
guidance for public policy. Programmes to enhance people's ability to understand some basic financial
and economic concepts (such as interest compounding, percentages, etc.) have demonstrated their
usefulness, especially for less-educated participants. The best way, however, to enhance financial
literacy so as to fully realise the benefits of financial development is to further invest in education, for
there is clear evidence of a strong relationship between the level of schooling and financial literacy.
IV. Policy implications
Overall, there is widespread and robust evidence that education plays a key role in enhancing
economic performance, especially in those sectors where productivity and labour utilisation is
relatively low. Therefore, improving education - and quantitative and qualitative terms - has to be at
the heart of policy measures aimed at raising the growth potential of the euro area in a sustainable
manner. The Lisbon agenda aims at precisely this. Given the lower productivity growth in the financial
sector compared to the productivity gains achieved in other sectors in the euro area, but also relative
to those recorded in the United States, policies that can accelerate the integration and development of
European financial markets are essential. For they will help to raise the European economy's growth
potential, enhance its capacity to adapt to changing global conditions and structures and strengthen its
resilience to shocks. [SLIDE 21] In particular, further financial integration and development in the euro
area would allow for a more balanced systemic response of its economy to asymmetric shocks -
which is, of course, of particular relevance for the smooth functioning of Economic and Monetary
Union. The better risk-sharing opportunities of an integrated financial market should also help to
synchronise more the business cycles across the euro area and reduce the volatility of output and
employment. Last, and by no means least, more integrated and sophisticated financial markets will
also enhance the smooth and effective transmission of the single monetary policy impulses across the
euro area. This brings me to my final point: the links between education and monetary policy.
What are the potential implications of a rise in the level of education for the conduct of monetary policy
in the euro area? [SLIDE 22] Improvements in education and in labour quality affect monetary policy in
two principal ways. First, by fostering higher productivity growth and labour utilisation, a higher level of
education raises potential growth and thus the "speed limit" of the economy, meaning that the
economy can attain a faster rate of sustainable growth that is compatible with price stability. The
second channel through which education affects the conduct of monetary policy relates to the efficient
functioning of national labour markets and to the role of labour mobility as an adjustment mechanism,
which is especially relevant in a monetary union. Increased labour force participation and mobility of
high-skilled workers will improve job-matching efficiency in the euro area, especially when there are
certain skill shortages. To the extent that more educated workers display a greater mobility across
firms, sectors and borders compared to workers with fewer qualifications, a higher level of education
can contribute to containing the size of economic fluctuations and mitigating the effects of shocks
because labour markets can adjust faster and in a manner that reduces output and employment
volatility.
V. Concluding remarks
Economic activity in the euro area is expanding at a solid pace and conditions are in place for the
ongoing expansion to continue at sustained rates. The improved growth performance of the euro area
economy reflects the positive influence of the policies being pursued and the reforms that have been
implemented. It is essential to preserve the favourable conditions that are fostering sustained growth
and to step up the efforts that can enhance the dynamism and growth potential of the euro area
economy.
Monetary policy has been contributing decisively to fostering sustainable growth by having established
an environment of price stability and by ensuring that medium to longer-term inflation expectations
remain solidly anchored at levels consistent with price stability. And this is what our policy will continue
to do. The ECB's Governing Council remains strongly vigilant and ready to act in an effective, firm and
timely manner to ensure that price stability is preserved over the medium and longer term.
At the same time, the euro area's potential for higher sustained growth and it capacity to effectively
absorb economic shocks can be further enhanced by the implementation of appropriate structural
reforms that can increase productivity and employment growth and improve market efficiency and
flexibility. In my presentation, I examined and assessed the links between education and the growth
performance of our economies. There is ample and robust evidence that more and better education
can foster productivity growth and raise labour utilisation. Moreover, I emphasised the important role
which the development of financial markets can play in fostering innovation, entrepreneurship and
productivity growth and I argued that education has contributed and can further contribute to the
development and stability of the financial system. What counts now is to use these insights and to
implement the necessary policy measures to enhance the quantity and quality of education in Europe.
After all, as Anton Chechov reminds us, " knowledge is of no value, unless you put it into practice."
Thank you very much for your attention.
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