Bank of Japan's August report of recent economic and financial developments
Bank of Japan communication, XX/8/98.
The Bank's View1
Japan's economic conditions continue to deteriorate.
With respect to final demand, public investment seems to have bottomed out. Net
exports have resumed to increase mainly due to a decline in imports. However, business fixed
investment has been decreasing significantly, and housing investment has weakened further. Private
consumption has not yet shown a resumption. Against this background of weak final demand,
substantial production cutbacks continue. As a inventories have decreased somewhat, but the
result,
level is still high. With the decline in expenditure and production, corporate profits continue to
decrease, and employee income remains below the previous year's level. In addition, the ratio of job
offers to applications has dropped to a historically low level, and the unemployment rate has
increased further. As a whole, employment and income conditions have worsened.
Although the above indicates a continued negative interactions of production,
income, and expenditure, a further deterioration in the economy is expected to cease gradually from
the effects of the comprehensive economic stimulus package including additional public works and
the special income tax reduction. Given the current considerably low level of economic activities,
however, the positive influence of the package on private demand will likely be limited, and the
economy's immediate transition to a self-sustained recovery is hardly expected. In these
circumstances, the relevant bills have been submitted to the Diet to rebuild the stability of the
financial system. Moreover, the new administration is planning to launch new economic stimulus
measures, including additional public investment in the supplementary budget for fiscal 1998 and the
reduction in personal income taxes and corporate taxes. The materialization of these policies along
with their effects on corporate and household sentiment should be carefully monitored.
With regard to prices, wholesale prices are on a downtrend, and consumer prices
(excluding the effects of institutional changes2) remain below the previous year's level. With respect
to the factors affecting the outlook, the downward pressure on domestic prices induced by the
decline in import prices is weakening. In addition, the expansion in the output gap in the economy is
expected to slow in line with the implementation of the comprehensive economic stimulus package.
Nevertheless, reflecting the present large output gap, the downward pressure from domestic factors
is unlikely to weaken considerably, and hence, prices are likely to be weak for some time.
As for financial markets, yields on long-term government bonds and stock prices rose
toward mid-July 1998 reflecting growing anticipation for permanent tax cut. However, they have
declined since then as a wait-and-see posture has prevailed among market participants with the
growing attention to the concrete measures of the new administration's economic policies.
Meanwhile, Euro-yen interest rates and the Japan premium indicate strong market concerns
regarding credit risks of financial institutions and liquidity risks at end-September 1998, the end of
the first half of fiscal 1998.
With respect to monetary aggregates, growth in has been slowing, reflecting
M2+CDs
the sluggish private bank lending. These developments basically reflect the further decline in the
credit demand of private firms with the worsening of overall economic activities, along with the
continued cautious lending stance of private banks.
Meanwhile, some firms, especially small and medium-sized firms, have been facing
difficult financing conditions in terms of both funds availability and fund-raising costs. This
influence on the overall economy continues to warrant careful monitoring.