For release on delivery
11:30 a.m. EDT (8:30 a.m. PDT)
May 5, 2017
Committee Decisions and Monetary Policy Rules
Remarks by
Stanley Fischer
Vice Chairman
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
at
"The Structural Foundations of Monetary Policy,"
a Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference
Stanford University
Stanford, California
May 5, 2017
It is a pleasure to be at the Hoover Institution again. I was privileged to be a
Visiting Scholar here from 1981 to 1982. In addition, many of the researchers and
practitioners with whom I have discussed monetary policy over the years have had
affiliations with the Hoover Institution--including several people here today. It is a
pleasure also to have been invited to speak at this Hoover Institution Monetary Policy
Conference, for the Hoover conference series provides a valuable forum for policymakers
and researchers to engage in dialogue about important monetary policy issues facing the
United States and other countries.
Today I will offer some observations on monetary policy rules and their place in
decisionmaking by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).1 I have two messages.
First, policymakers should consult the prescriptions of policy rules, but--almost needless
to say--they should avoid applying them mechanically. Second, policymaking
committees have strengths that policy rules lack. In particular, committees are an
efficient means of aggregating a wide variety of information and perspectives.
Monetary Policy Rules in Research and Policy
Since May 2014, I have considered monetary policy rules from the vantage point
of a member of the FOMC. But my interest in them began many years ago and was
reflected in some of my earliest publications.2 At that time, the literature on monetary
policy rules, especially in the United States, remained predominantly concerned with the
money stock or total bank reserves rather than the short-term interest rate.3 Seen with the
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benefit of hindsight, that emphasis probably derived from three sources: First, the
quantity theory of money emphasized the link between the quantity of money and
inflation; second, that research was carried out when monetarism was gaining credibility
in the profession; and, third, there was a concern that interest rate rules might lead to
price-level indeterminacy--an issue disposed of by Bennett McCallum and others.4
Subsequently, John Taylor's research, especially his celebrated 1993 paper, was a
catalyst in changing the focus toward rules for the short-term interest rate.5 Taylor's
work thus helped shift the terms of the discussion in favor of rules for the instrument that
central banks prefer to use. His 1993 study also highlighted the practical relevance of
monetary policy rules, as he showed that a particular simple rule--the rule that now bears
his name--provided a good approximation to the behavior of the federal funds rate during
the early Greenspan years. The research literature on monetary policy rules has
experienced a major revival since Taylor's seminal paper and has concentrated on rules
for the short-term interest rate.
literature on monetary policy: Examples include Currie and Levine (1987) and Flemming (1993). In
addition, an interest rate was the policy instrument in some key contributions to open-economy monetary
theory, such as Meade (1951) and Mundell (1960). These traditions likely reflected the long-standing use
of Bank Rate as a policy instrument in the United Kingdom and the fact that, for most of the period from
the Treasury/Federal Reserve Accord of 1951 until the 1990s, central banks in countries other than the
United States tended to be more explicit than the Federal Reserve chose to be about their use of short-term
interest rates as their primary policy instrument. Even in the U.S. context, however, there was a certain
amount of research on interest rate policies. For example, it was common practice among builders of large
econometric models to consider different Federal Reserve interest rate strategies (see Ando, 1981). In
addition, the empirical and simulation properties of the Federal Reserve's interest rate reaction function
were the concern of such studies as Dewald and Johnson (1963), DeRosa and Stern (1977), Dornbusch and
Fischer (1979), and Henderson and McKibbin (1993), while Sargent and Wallace (1975) and McCallum
(1981) examined the analytical properties of interest rate rules. A later magisterial study of the analytics of
interest rate rules was Woodford (2003).
4
See McCallum (1981). I should add that when we presented work based on Cooper and Fischer (1972),
we were urged by several economists to focus on the interest rate as the monetary policy instrument.
Among these economists were Albert Ando and Franco Modigliani, who were then working with others on
building the MPS (MIT-Pennsylvania-Social Science Research Council) model.
5
See Taylor (1993).
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Consideration of interest rate rules has also, as I will discuss, come to have a
prominent role in FOMC discussions, with the Taylor rule being one benchmark that we
regularly consult. But--building on recent remarks I made elsewhere--I will also indicate
why policymakers might have good reasons for deviating from these rule benchmarks
and why, in pursuing the objectives of monetary policy, they could appropriately behave
in ways that are not very well characterized by simple monetary policy rules.6 In
particular, I will point to reasons why the FOMC's discussions might lead to decisions
that depart--temporarily or permanently--from the prescriptions of baseline monetary
policy rules.
Rules as a Benchmark for Policy Discussions
Some perspective on the status of policy rules in FOMC discussions is provided
by considering what has changed over the past 20 years. Donald Kohn, at a landmark
conference organized by John Taylor in January 1998, described the role played by
monetary policy rules in the FOMC briefing process.7 His account noted that Federal
Reserve staff members presented FOMC participants with prescriptions from several
policy rules, including the Taylor (1993) rule. This description remains true today.
Publicly available Bluebooks and Tealbooks of successive years demonstrate that the
coverage of policy rules in the briefing material provided by the Board staff expanded
considerably in the years after Kohn spoke.8
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Kohn noted that policy rule prescriptions served two functions: as a "benchmark
for the stance of policy" and "to structure thinking about the implications of incoming
information for the direction of policy action."9 These two functions continue to be
important: Policy rule prescriptions provide a useful starting point for FOMC
deliberations and a convenient way of organizing alternative arguments about the
appropriate policy decision. Policy rule prescriptions, particularly prescriptions that are
obtained from a dynamic model simulation, also help policymakers take to heart a key
message of the literature on policy rules--namely, that monetary policy decisions should
concern the appropriate path for the policy instrument and not merely the current setting
of that instrument.
Kohn also observed, however, that "in truth, only a few members look at this or
similar information regularly, and the number does not seem to be growing." That state
of affairs has probably changed in the two decades since Kohn wrote. It is clear from
transcripts in the public record that rule prescriptions have frequently been cited at
FOMC meetings.10 The prominence that interest rate rules have achieved in Federal
Reserve policymakers' analysis of monetary policy was underscored by Chair Yellen in
her speech at Stanford University earlier this year.11
Further, as is clear from Taylor's econometric derivation of his 1993 rule, actual
monetary policy decisions may--and probably should--exhibit systematic patterns that
can be described as a rule. In fact, as I have already noted, one attraction of the 1993
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Taylor rule was that it described U.S. monetary policy patterns well over a certain period,
one that was associated with a reasonable degree of economic stability.
Nevertheless, central bankers who are aware of the merits of the arguments for
policy rules have on occasion deviated substantially from the prescriptions of standard
policy rules. Further, while the implications of different monetary rules are described in
the Tealbook and typically referred to in the presentations by several FOMC participants,
the overall discussion in FOMC meetings is not generally cast in terms of how it relates
to one version or another of the Taylor or any other rule. The other set of rules
mentioned frequently in FOMC discussions are Wicksellian, for there is often a
discussion of r*, which in some formulations of the Taylor rule is also the constant term.
The period since 2008 bears testimony to central bankers' willingness to depart
from the prescriptions of a pre-specified rule. In the wake of the financial crisis,
policymakers found it necessary to follow a more accommodative monetary policy that
was appropriate for the new economic conditions.12 In addition, structural changes in the
U.S. economy have apparently lowered the value of the interest rate--that is,
r*--consistent with neutral policy.13
Such structural changes were not anticipated in advance.14 Of course, once a
structural change has occurred and been ascertained by policymakers, they will know
12
See especially Engen, Laubach, and Reifschneider (2015). Because the federal funds rate was at its
effective lower bound from late 2008 to late 2015, policy choices about that rate largely involved decisions
concerning the forward guidance provided by the FOMC. These decisions in turn rested on judgments
regarding the period over which the rate should remain at its lower bound, as well as about the pace and
magnitude of the subsequent policy firming.
13
See, for example, Board of Governors (2017).
14
Indeed, Milton Friedman's advocacy of a policy rule consisting of constant monetary growth rested in
part on the existence of uncertainty, as he suggested that economists lacked the knowledge about economic
relationships required to improve on that simple rule. See Friedman (1972) for a concise version of his
case for the rule and Dornbusch and Fischer (1978, pp. 278-80, 516) for a textbook account of Friedman's
rule that emphasized the uncertainty aspect of his argument for the rule. Of course, the fact that a policy
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what rules would likely have performed well in the face of that change. For this reason,
policymakers might change their judgment about what monetary policy rules constitute
reasonable benchmarks, or, over time, they might develop a procedure for revising the
monetary rule. But a frequently revised rule does not really qualify as a rule in the sense
that we currently use the term.
Consequently, when considering the relationship between monetary policy
decisions and monetary policy rules, we can expect two regularities to hold. First, actual
monetary policy will sometimes appropriately depart from the prescriptions of
benchmark rules even when those benchmarks describe past decisions well. Second, in
their use of rules, policymakers will from time to time change their assessment of what
rule they regard as the appropriate benchmark. Both regularities have been amply
observed in recent years, but they were also present 20 years ago, as reflected in Kohn's
remark that policymakers "do not see their past actions as a very firm guide to current or
future policy." Or, as a teacher of mine at the London School of Economics, Richard
Sayers, put it much earlier, "There is no code of eternal rules. . . . We have central banks
for the very reason that there are no such rules."15
As I will now elaborate, I believe the fact that monetary policy is made by
committees in most economies is important in understanding both of these regularities.
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The Role of Committees in Policy Formation
Monetary policy decisions in the United States and elsewhere typically arise from
a discussion and vote of a committee.16 In principle, a monetary policy committee could
decide to follow a rule. But a decision of this kind is unlikely to occur in practice.
Committee discussions bring into policymaking features that a rule lacks. A committee-
based decision process is, I suggest, likely to produce policy decisions that depart from
the prescriptions of benchmark rules.
A policy rule prescription is more consistent with a single perspective on the
economy than with the pooling of multiple perspectives that is associated with a
committee policymaking process. Roger Lowenstein's book America's Bank details how
the founding of the Federal Reserve involved reconciling a large number of interests in
the United States.17 In a similar vein, the modern FOMC framework involves
participation by 12 Reserve Bank presidents, each of whom represents a different district
of the country. The FOMC framework also balances centralized and decentralized
decisionmaking by having most of the permanent voting members--specifically, the
Board of Governors--be based in Washington, D.C.
All of the FOMC participants have common goals--maximum employment and
price stability--that are given by the Federal Reserve's statutory mandate. They have also
agreed, for pursuing that mandate, on the Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary
Policy Strategy.18 But while they have this common ground, each FOMC participant
brings to the table his or her own perspective or view of the world. Part of their role in
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meetings is to articulate that perspective and perhaps persuade their colleagues to revise
their own perspectives--or vice versa.
A member of a committee may well have valuable economic information not
known by their colleagues until he or she relays it. This point has been brought home to
me by Reserve Bank presidents' accounts of recent economic developments in their
Districts. These narratives shed light on the real-world developments that lie behind the
recorded economic data. They also help shape my interpretation of what part of
incoming data may be an important signal and what part may reflect transitory factors or
mismeasurement.
The information underlying a policy decision is, therefore, crucially shaped by a
committee system. Committees can aggregate a large volume of diverse information
about current and expected future economic conditions. The information includes
anecdotes and impressions gleaned from business and other contacts, which can provide
insights that are not recorded in current data releases.
In practice, it is likely that the information obtained and processed by the
Committee will leave the FOMC less inclined to follow a benchmark rule. For example,
the Committee's discussions might point up factors that have not yet affected real
economic activity and inflation. Such factors would not lead to an immediate change in
the prescription for the federal funds rate obtained from a rule like the Taylor rule, as this
prescription is a function of current values of the output gap and inflation. The
Committee might nevertheless wish to adjust the federal funds rate immediately because
the newly unearthed factors are likely to affect output and inflation in coming months.
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In addition, and as I have suggested, policymakers might also encounter
unexpected or unusual events, or both, or they might perceive changes in the structure of
the economy. A committee process is conducive to assessing the appropriate policy
response to these developments. A case in point is the decline, as I mentioned, in
estimates of the neutral interest rate. The concept of the neutral interest rate is a way of
summarizing the various forces, many of them unobservable, that shift the relationship
between monetary policy and economic activity. Bringing to the table diverse
perspectives is a pragmatic way of confronting such deep sources of uncertainty and
deciding how to deal with them. A committee discussion can flesh out the factors behind
changes in the neutral rate, and a committee would likely be able to identify such changes
more promptly than would a statistical exercise, because of the wider set of information
from around the country that the committee is able to process.
The decisionmaking environment that I have described involves more flexibility
for FOMC members than they would have if they simply followed a policy rule. But
transparency and accountability must figure heavily in this more flexible environment.
The FOMC's policy communications include its postmeeting statement, the minutes of its
meetings, the Chair's quarterly press conference, the Chair's semiannual monetary policy
testimony to the Congress, and other public remarks by individual FOMC members. In
this framework, policymakers articulate the reasoning behind each decision and, in
particular, explain how the policy decision contributes to the achievement of the
Committee's statutory mandate.
There remains a deeper question about committee decisionmaking: Why have
almost all countries decided that monetary policy decisions should be made by a
committee rather than by a rule? One answer is that laws in most countries are passed by
institutions in which committee deliberation is the norm. Of course, we then have to ask
why that has become a norm in almost all democracies. The answer is that
opinions--even on monetary policy--differ among experts, while the economy is in a
constant process of change.
Because opinions differ among experts, democracies tend to prefer committees in
which decisions are made by discussion among the experts--and, in many cases, other
representatives of the public--who discuss, try to persuade each other, and must at the end
of their deliberations reach a decision. But those decisions have to be explained to the
public and to other parts of the government--and hence the appropriate emphasis on
transparency and accountability. That is the democratic way of making decisions when
opinions differ, as they often do in the monetary field.
I have been a governor of two central banks and, even as the sole monetary policy
decisionmaker in the Bank of Israel, would sometimes find that my initial view on the
next decision changed as a result of discussions with the informal advisory committee
with whom I consulted at that time. Those discussions, which recognize human frailty in
analyzing a situation and the need to act despite considerable uncertainties, are the reason
on average,
why committee decisionmaking is, preferable to the use of a rule.19
Emphasis on a single rule as the basis for monetary policy implies that the truth
has been found, despite the record over time of major shifts in monetary policy--from the
gold standard, to the Bretton Woods fixed but changeable exchange rate rule, to
Keynesian approaches, to monetary targeting, to the modern frameworks of inflation
targeting and the dual mandate of the Fed, and more. We should not make our monetary
policy decisions based on that assumption. Rather, we need our policymakers to be
continually on the lookout for structural changes in the economy and for disturbances to
the economy that come from hitherto unexpected sources.
Concluding Remarks
Let me now sum up. The prescriptions of monetary policy rules play a prominent
role in the FOMC's monetary policy deliberations. And this is as it should be, in view of
the usefulness of rules as a starting point for policy discussion and the fact that
comparison with a benchmark rule provides a useful means of articulating one's own
preferred policy action. But, for the reasons I have outlined, adherence to a simple policy
rule is not the most appropriate means of achieving macroeconomic goals--and there are
very good reasons why monetary policy decisions are typically made in committees
whose structure allows them to assess the varying conditions of different regions and
economic sectors, as well as to reflect different beliefs about the working of the economy.
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