Alan Bollard: Economic impacts of seismic risk - lessons for Wellington
Speech by Dr Alan Bollard, Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and Mr Satish
Ranchhod, to the Rotary Club of Wellington and Victoria University of Wellington
one day conference "Organisational Effectiveness in Times of Seismic Risk", Wellington,
18 October 2011.
* * *
With thanks to Don Abel, Stephanie Begley, Alan Boaden, Denys Bruce and Robert Cole for their contributions to
this work.
Introduction
The earthquakes in Canterbury have had a profound human and economic impact that will
continue to be felt for many years. The devastating nature of these events has highlighted
the importance of risk management and the consequent organisational preparedness. This is
particularly true for Wellington, a city that is built on hills, flood plains and reclaimed land,
overlooking a harbour connected to Cook Strait, and dissected by a major active fault line at
the intersection of the Indo-Australian and Pacific tectonic plates.
It has been a little over a year since the first of the major earthquakes in Canterbury and we
have seen these events produce highly complex and unforeseen outcomes. One of the least
expected outcomes has been the long lasting nature of the earthquakes through their
associated aftershocks. Planning in the face of such uncertainty is a great challenge, but it is
vital to ensure that our society is able to continue to function effectively in times of
considerable disruption. From the perspective of the Reserve Bank, organisational
preparedness means both business continuity considerations for the Bank itself, as well as
working to maintain economic stability.
This paper focuses, firstly, on the impact of the Canterbury earthquakes on the economy and
how the Bank has responded; secondly, the business continuity planning of the Bank itself;
and thirdly, the lessons we can learn from Canterbury that we, as institutions, can apply in
Wellington. It does not cover the important topics of seismology, engineering, and human
issues.
Economic effects of the Canterbury earthquakes
The earthquakes in September 2010 and February 2011, as well as the associated
aftershocks, significantly affected the economic environment. In addition to the considerable
impact these events had on people's lives, there was substantial damage to assets, as well
as disruptions to economic activity.
The affected areas are home to around 12 percent of the country's population and damage
to housing was extensive. Out of a total housing stock of approximately 220,000 homes,
around 165,000 were impacted, including many that are now uninhabitable. There has also
been substantial damage to commercial assets and infrastructure, particularly within
Christchurch's central business district.
It has proved very difficult to calculate the cost of the damage. It is likely over $20 billion (most
of this involving damage to housing, with significant damage also to commercial buildings and
infrastructure). Of course estimates of damage, estimates of insurance claims, and estimates
of reconstruction can all differ somewhat. Our working assumption is that there will be
approximately $20 billion of rebuild. This is equivalent to around 10 percent of GDP, which
represents a very large shock in relative terms. (As a comparison, the massive earthquake
that struck Japan in March 2011 is estimated to have caused damage equivalent to around
3 to 4 percent of Japan's annual GDP.) We recognise that there is considerable uncertainty
around these numbers and that revisions to this estimate are likely to continue for some time.
Indeed, we frequently note that our working assumption is to the nearest $5 billion.
It is also important to note that this assumption relates to the current replacement value of
damaged assets. The nominal cost of rebuilding these assets could be larger as construction
costs and prices for materials may well increase over the coming years, and as
reconstruction incorporates quality improvements. Indeed, the Reserve Bank's Insurance
Oversight Team estimates that total property insurance claims (including buildings and other
assets) stemming from the earthquakes could be considerably higher than these numbers. In
addition, some of the damage caused will not have been insured or will not be repaired.
The response to these events
The devastating impact of the Canterbury earthquake necessitated a large and coordinated
response by central and local government, as well as private sector agencies. New Zealand
was also fortunate enough to receive assistance from other nations during the disaster
recovery period that followed the February earthquake.
For the Reserve Bank, the earthquakes raised a number of broad concerns related to
protecting the soundness of the financial system. We were also conscious of our aim of
maintaining medium-term price stability. When determining the appropriate response to
achieve these goals, we considered three distinct phases in economic activity following the
earthquakes: disruption, stabilisation and reconstruction. Rather than representing specific
time periods, each of these phases relates to the underlying state of the economic
environment. In turn, each raised a different set of concerns.
 In the period of disruption that immediately followed the earthquakes, human life and
safety were the dominant concerns, with recovery efforts led by Civil Defence. The
Reserve Bank and other organisations were focused on ensuring that essential
economic activity could continue. This involved the maintenance of payments
systems, including the supply of additional cash. We also focused on ensuring that
key financial institutions were able to continue operations.
 After immediate safety factors were addressed, concerns shifted to ensuring the
stability of business and economic activity. During this period, we have been
focused on the soundness of the financial system, including the financial health of
key economic organisations. We have also focused on providing appropriate
support for economic activity.
 Over time, CERA and other organisations' response to these events will shift again
as economic conditions in Canterbury and the economy more generally improve. As
this occurs, the Reserve Bank's focus will move away from the provision of
emergency support, and towards ensuring that the degree of economic stimulus
provided is appropriate for achieving our medium-term policy aims.
Uncertainty about the state of the economy following the earthquakes has been very high.
Over the past year, we have been engaged in a process of ongoing learning about the state
of the economy following the earthquakes that has fed into our policy deliberations. This
process will continue for an extended period, even as the economy continues to recover,
although our focus will gradually shift.
The earthquake and financial system soundness
Cash handling and payments systems
One of our most pressing concerns immediately following the earthquakes was the
maintenance of payments systems. In the aftermath of events such as natural disasters,
there is strong demand for food, water, petrol and other necessities. And with damage to
power and telecommunications systems, access to cash is a key concern. Only two hours
after the February earthquake the Reserve Bank started receiving orders from banks for
more cash for delivery to Christchurch. Ensuring cash was available required us to work
closely with banks and Cash in Transit companies to meet the spike in demand. This task
was complicated by damage to roads that meant travel, where possible in Christchurch, was
taking about three times as long as normal.
The public also needed information about where cash was available. To ensure this, Bank
staff used Google maps to provide a live feed of operational and accessible ATMs. Overall
about $150 million of extra cash was sent to Christchurch in the week of the earthquake,
representing about $350 per resident. There was a big drop in electronic payments and
increased demand for cash, initially in the form of $20 and $50 notes through the surviving
ATM machines. We learned a lot about ATM configuration to ensure operability, and the
internet was very useful to provide up to date information on ATM availability.
Banking
An additional concern following the earthquakes was the stability of key financial institutions
including banks and insurers. These institutions play an important role in shaping the
ongoing conditions in Canterbury. Further, we were conscious that significant disruptions in
one region could affect the functioning of these organisations at a national level.
Most commercial banks do not have their core banking systems located in Christchurch, and
those that do had effective back-up systems located outside the Christchurch region.
Additionally, banks' disaster recovery procedures proved to be quite effective, and certainly
had become much better honed by the time of the February earthquake. Banks took a
longterm view of their customer relationships through the provision of generous customer
assistance packages, and generally adopted a helpful, constructive attitude to their
customers' difficulties. Banks came together as an industry throughout the disaster, sharing a
lot of information and advice amongst each other, and have opened small business support
centres.
Some households and businesses came under financial stress as a result of the earthquakes
and this had an impact on banks and other financial institutions. However, the banking
industry has not been subject to significant financial risks from the earthquakes. Losses on
residential mortgages are expected to be relatively light due to insurance coverage and the
Government's earthquake recovery packages. In addition, many smaller commercial
businesses were not located in areas where major damage occurred. Bank provisioning for
credit losses totalled nearly $100 million. Nevertheless, there remains a great deal of
uncertainty in quantifying the effects of the earthquakes.
Insurance
The insurance sector has had a number of significant and complex concerns. A well funded
and functioning insurance sector assists with the recovery from a significant destructive
event. New Zealand is fortunate that insurance will fund the majority of the costs of the
Canterbury earthquakes, and most of this funding comes from large offshore reinsurers. In
other parts of the world, such as Japan, government, businesses and households bear a
much greater share of disaster costs. Since the September earthquake, almost $4 billion of
insurance claims have been paid out by the Earthquake Commission (EQC) and private
insurers. There is still much more to be paid out by insurers, and this will occur over several
years while Christchurch is rebuilt.
The importance placed on the role that public and private insurers have in reducing the
financial burdens of disasters can be seen from the EQC's $11 billion of funds and
reinsurance, which were built up over decades and are available to meet disaster claims.
This is backed up by a Government guarantee if more funds are needed. The Government
also decided in April to support AMI (the biggest residential insurer in the Christchurch
region), in order that policyholders with earthquake claims could have certainty that their
valid claims would be paid.
The magnitude and ongoing nature of the earthquakes raise a number of challenges for the
insurance sector, and potentially the economy more generally. A number of insurers have
suffered significant hits to their balance sheets. On the other hand it appears that the
international reinsurance market has worked as we would hope, bearing in mind that we
have now suffered a series of insurance "events".
Following the Canterbury earthquakes there have been both temporary and longer term
changes in the insurance market. While the ground is still moving, there is limited availability
of new cover for earthquakes in the Christchurch area. For most businesses and households
this means they are not free to change insurers at present, while for those currently without
insurance cover the impact is more significant. Some earthquake-prone buildings and
infrastructure can no longer get insurance cover in Canterbury or elsewhere in New Zealand.
Other changes to date include higher nationwide premiums to fund increased reinsurance
costs and bigger excesses.
Property insurers that have had their reinsurance program renewing since February, have
generally been able to maintain or increase their reinsurance cover. However, reinsurance
premiums have more than doubled, and in many cases a higher retention (claims borne by
the insurer before reinsurance starts to pay out) also applies. We are now seeing delays in
payouts and some litigation around liabilities. This may look untidy, but it may also be
inevitable in such a complex situation.
The effects on economic activity
The earthquakes have resulted in severe disruptions to short term economic activity, and a
loss in balance sheet values, but will bring significant stimulus in the medium term. Disruption
was mainly due to reduced household and business spending, as well as lost exports and
production in Canterbury. Furthermore, following the earthquakes we saw sharp declines in
consumer confidence and business sentiment economy-wide. Sectors most affected have
been tourism, education and central business district retailing. Encouragingly, however,
some of the significant contributors to Canterbury's economy, particularly agriculture,
manufacturing and professional services have been remarkably resilient after the first few
weeks. Construction and related services have been through a frustrating period of disruption
and prolonged wait. But next year they will enter an era of huge expansion, New Zealand's
largest ever construction project, big enough to drive the nation's growth by an extra
1 to 2 percent, but with the potential to also cause bottlenecks, skill shortages, cost increases
and planning problems. Already there has been some population loss to the region, but next
year this may turn around.
Monetary policy and the earthquakes
The Reserve Bank's immediate focus following the earthquakes was the soundness of the
financial system. We remained conscious of our focus on the maintenance of medium-term
price stability. In the aftermath of the February earthquake, we did observe some near-term
prices increases (for instance, in commercial and residential rents). Consistent with the
Policy Targets Agreement, monetary policy does not react to such short-term price changes.
However, we were also conscious that the substantial reconstruction required in Canterbury
would provide a large boost to economic growth over a period of five years or more. During
this period, residential investment spending is likely to rise to a share of GDP similar to that
seen during the mid-2000 construction boom. But in contrast to that earlier period, there will
be a much higher concentration of work in one geographic area. Combined with increases in
business investment spending, this will boost medium-term activity and inflationary pressures
for an extended period. It would therefore be inappropriate, all else equal, for monetary policy
to be stimulatory during the reconstruction period.
This concern was balanced against the negative impact of the earthquakes on near-term
activity. In the Canterbury region, activity certainly reduced. In addition, there were declines
in nationwide consumer confidence, as well as investment and hiring intentions among
businesses economy-wide. It was difficult to know how large or long lasting such impacts
would be and there was a risk of a marked deterioration in economy-wide activity.
Furthermore, although GDP growth was likely to be higher than it might otherwise have been
during the reconstruction period, the destructive effects of the earthquakes meant that New
Zealand would still be worse off.
Given these risks, the Bank reduced the official cash rate by 50 basis points following the
February earthquake. We described this as an insurance measure, one that aimed to avoid a
significant and persistent deterioration in activity. We were conscious, however, that
depending on wider economic conditions, this insurance would need to be removed as
rebuilding, and a recovery in activity more generally, drew the economy's resources into
production. Since that time however, monetary policy has had to account for a number of
significant developments. These include the continuing sovereign debt concerns in Europe
and related developments in financial markets. Business confidence appears to have now
recovered well nationwide, and to a large extent also in New Zealand. We believe the cuts in
the OCR assisted this.
Fiscal impact of the earthquakes
The impact of the earthquake on the Government's fiscal position has also been significant.
Central and local government have faced significant cost increases as a result of the
earthquakes. The largest of these has been the $11.7 billion EQC insurance cost. This has
exceeded EQC's reinsurance cover of $4.2 billion, with the shortfall exhausting the National
Disaster Fund. The Government also faces significant expenses related to the purchase of
residential properties in the red zone, support for AMI, and costs associated with damage to
infrastructure.
In addition to these costs, the government faced significant costs related to welfare and
emergency responses (totaling around $363 million at end of June 2011). Following the
earthquakes, the employment situation of many individuals was affected with around
40,000 employees and 9,000 sole traders seeking assistance. It was also necessary for the
Government to increase spending related to healthcare, social services and public
administration and safety services.
Earthquake-related expenditure estimated at $13.6 billion contributed to a marked
deterioration in the Government's operating deficit over the 2010/2011 year, and further
earthquake related expenditure will be required over the coming years. The resulting
pressure on the Government's debt position was highlighted by Standard and Poor's when
they downgraded New Zealand's long-term sovereign rating to "AA" earlier this year. Fitch
also noted some concerns about the impact of the earthquakes on the fiscal debt in their
latest assessment.
In response to the costs associated with the earthquakes, the Government's June Budget
incorporated an increased focus on fiscal consolidation with a reduction in new discretionary
spending over the coming four years. In addition, the Government has recently announced
an increase in the earthquake cover levy component of home insurance, to cover the costs
faced by the EQC and to rebuild its Natural Disaster Fund.
As part of our response we have also been researching how other countries have responded
to similar earthquakes. Rapid recovery of communications infrastructure, speedy decisions
on rebuild, and availability of finance, have led to rapid bounce-backs in industrial production,
confidence and growth. Where the New Zealand situation looks most different is in the
lingering seismic instability.
The lessons for Wellington
We have learned that an event like a major earthquake has many unpredictabilities and
uncertainties about it, elements that are incident and location-specific, with characteristics
that unfold in different ways. And these make it difficult to plan crisis responses in detail. We
have learned the same thing about financial crisis, as in the semi-ironic title of the classic
Reinhart & Rogoff book on international economic crises entitled "This Time Is Different".
This means institutions need to focus on general preparedness, competency, leadership,
delegation powers and resilience, rather than on detailed plans for specific situations which
may not repeat themselves.
We have also learned that some earthquakes cannot be thought of as a short sharp event,
but rather are a rolling set of shocks with a long period of continuing after-quakes. These can
cause on-going damage, delay assessment, continue disruption, and slow reconstruction.
The impact of ongoing seismic instability on insurance and construction can be very marked.
We have seen how earthquake damage is hugely sensitive to magnitude, depth, location and
timing of day and week. In 2009 the biggest earthquake in the Southern Hemisphere
occurred in Fiordland, 7.8 on the Richter Scale. It caused no damage at all. The much
smaller February 22 Christchurch aftershock was so disastrous, not just because of its
vertical acceleration, but its location under Christchurch and its timing on a week-day
lunchtime. The same sensitivity could apply to Wellington.
We also know now that structural damage is only part of the story. The February
Christchurch earthquake showed that soil liquefaction can also cause land damage that is
highly problematic for buildings and underground infrastructure. Given that most private
insurance does not cover this, it presents major problems for rebuild. This is further
exacerbated by land-slips. Both liquefaction in valleys and reclaimed land, and slips on
higher ground could cause major economic complications in Wellington.
Christchurch has also taught us that some sectors are very sensitive to earthquake
disruption. For Wellington we might assume that certain people-based industries (like tourism
and education) would be vulnerable, although much office-based services would relocate as
necessary once telecommunications and electricity could be resumed. Wellington might be
expected to be more resilient in that many of the buildings have been built or altered with
earthquakes in mind (e.g. wooden houses with corrugated iron roofs and reinforced
chimneys), or in the case of older commercial buildings, reinforced to meet earthquake
standards. These standards are now being reviewed in the light of Christchurch, and will
likely be increased, requiring significant further upgrading in Wellington (and possibly driving
a small commercial building boom as happened in the 1980s). The challenge here will be to
avoid a costly regulatory over-reaction to a one-off event.
Christchurch with its flat terrain and grid roading structure allowed easier repair of
aboveground infrastructure and access to all suburbs. This cannot be assumed in Wellington
where slips would close roads limiting access, and where the whole city could find its air, rail,
sea, motorway and road links with the region cut completely for some time. Hill top
communications and electricity transmissions are quite different in Wellington, gravity-flow
underground piping is quite different, and the Cook Strait cable represents a particular
vulnerability.
A further concern is that earthquake insurance coverage could become much more limited,
more expensive, and more restrictive in Wellington, following the Christchurch experience.
Already we are seeing big increases in reinsurance premiums, tighter covenants, high
excesses, and a move from full replacement to indemnity policies.
Following the September and February earthquakes, there was immediate transmission of
images world-wide with passers-by posting cell phone pictures live to television stations and
on the internet. This engendered an immediate (but limited) market reaction, hitting the New
Zealand dollar and stock prices. At the Reserve Bank, we spent time explaining the event to
overseas financial institutions and that limited excessive financial market reactions. A bad
Wellington earthquake with an epicentre in the nation's capital, could engender a more
extreme financial market reaction, and it would be the Reserve Bank's role to intervene to
ensure an orderly foreign exchange market if that proved necessary. If the country's political
leadership and key administrative infrastructure were caught up in an earthquake, this could
drive a bigger financial reaction, and make government policy responses much harder.
Reserve Bank planning for emergencies
In the event of an emergency the Bank's focus would remain on the maintenance of
economic stability, as much as possible. With this in mind, the Bank has been proactive in
developing its policies and procedures to ensure the resilience of our organisation and the
economy in the event of significant disruptions.
Central to our planning has been the establishment of business continuity plans focused on
the needs that may follow a major event, and how the Bank's ability to perform its operations
may be impeded. To ensure plans can be implemented successfully, key people from each
department are assigned to support the Bank and its critical business functions in the event
of disruptive incident. These plans and the related systems are tested regularly.
The Bank has also focused on ensuring that the necessary infrastructure is in place. In
particular, a seismic assessment of the Reserve Bank's main office was undertaken in
September. The results from this assessment show the building should withstand an
earthquake greater than the Christchurch earthquake experienced.
But even though our building could be standing after an earthquake, there is a risk that
damage to surrounding buildings could make the Wellington office inaccessible. To ensure
that the Bank's core functions can be maintained in such circumstances, an Auckland office
has been set up that houses a dozen staff on a day-to-day basis. These staff are engaged in
a number of business critical roles (including foreign reserves management, domestic
liquidity, and payments and settlement systems) to ensure the economy of New Zealand
would continue to function with some stability in the event of a major disaster. Furthermore,
provisions in the Reserve Bank Act provide for the delegation of key aspects of the
Governor's role to the Auckland Office Manager, with appropriate safeguards.
Conclusions
The events in Canterbury are particularly salient for Wellington. We have long known that
this region is at risk from seismic events, and clearly we must prepare for potential disruptive
events of any sort. However, we must also consider what degree of preparedness is
appropriate to ensure the survival of people, as well as organisational effectiveness. Several
factors are relevant in this regard.
 Disaster preparedness is necessary and desirable, but not costless. Increases in
safety standards (such as seismic strengthening) can result in significant costs for
an economy that linger long after the risks they aim to address have occurred. They
can also create a complicated regulatory environment that may result in significant
impediments for activity.
 A related consideration is the frequency of events. While it is possible to prepare for
very low-frequency high-impact events, doing so may be constraining in terms of
activity and prohibitive in terms of costs. The assessment of such risks in New
Zealand is currently very complex and there is a lot of work currently going on to
assess this.
 We must also be conscious of New Zealand's characteristics as a nation. In contrast
to many other developed economies, we are geographically and economically
isolated. If we face large challenges, we may do so with little external financial
support.
Determining the appropriate balance of such concerns in advance will always be a
challenging task. For decision makers, it is important to ensure that key organisations will
have the capacity to operate effectively in the event of a significant shock. Additionally, we
must be conscious that our response to events could be a drawn out process, and one that
needs to evolve over time.