Public lecture by Lesetja Kganyago,
Governor of the South African Reserve Bank,
at the University of Johannesburg,
10 May 2023
Challenges facing the global economy: a South African perspective
Ladies and gentlemen, it is with great pleasure to be invited to address you today.
The past few years have been a rollercoaster - evidenced by the numerous shocks
that we have been faced with in a space of just three years. While the global
economy at large continues to recover from the COVID-19 shock, and as we
navigate what one could consider a new normal, there are important challenges
that we continue to face as policymakers across the world. As such, the topic
chosen for my address today - challenges facing the global economy from a South
African perspective - could not be more fitting. This topic is particularly important
for South Africa which, alongside other emerging market economies, has had its
own idiosyncratic challenges being exacerbated by these global shocks.
In light of this background, my speech today will focus on how inflation, growth and
the monetary policy outlook have impacted our domestic economy. Before doing
so, it is probably important that we do a quick recap of where we have come from.
Global developments since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic
The major disruptions since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic have been an
important learning exercise for global economic policy. With no precedent in recent
history to learn from, it has highlighted the importance of finding appropriate policy
responses required to address the shock. The unusually large supply and demand
imbalances we witnessed during and post the pandemic were a result of the
sudden restrictions (and consequent relaxation) of economic activity as authorities
around the world sought to contain the spread of the pandemic.
You will remember that prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, global inflation was quite
low, with many major central banks struggling to get inflation up to the 2% target.
Soon after the pandemic hit, broad-based declines in inflation followed, which then,
in response, induced a wave of fiscal and monetary stimulus. The South African
Reserve Bank (SARB) itself reduced its repurchase - or repo - rate to an all-time
low of 3.5% in July 2020. This stimulus provided by policymakers to mitigate the
impacts of the pandemic, together with pent-up demand from the COVID-19
restrictions and the much slower reopening of the services sectors, boosted the
demand for goods while supply remained constrained. This, in turn, fuelled what
would eventually be the highest rates of global inflation in a generation.1
As the global economy was gradually recovering from the COVID-19 shock,
another unexpected shock came early last year: Russia's invasion of Ukraine
which triggered a war that still rages on today. The war in Ukraine compounded
the shock to the prices of oil, gas and some inputs into food production, such as
fertilisers - further fuelling the global inflation problem.
With the benefit of hindsight, we now know that the various stimulus efforts by
policymakers contributed to the inflation problem we are currently sitting with.
Nonetheless, the stimulus was much needed and supported demand conditions at
a time when consumer confidence had been crushed by the lockdowns and
furloughs. However, it is now clear that fiscal and monetary policy remained too
loose for far too long. The ultra-low interest rates and generous transfers to
households and businesses created excess demand - in an environment where
supply constraints have lowered potential output in most economies - which, in
turn, ignited the inflation problem we currently face. Subsequently, global inflation
pressures have resulted in many central banks around the world embarking on
unusually fast and synchronised monetary policy normalisation. The SARB itself
implemented a series of 75 basis point hikes over the past year - faster than in
prior tightening cycles. Since November 2021 to date, we have raised the repo rate
by a cumulative 425 basis points. However, for context, the cumulative repo rate
increases by the SARB have been below those implemented by some of our
emerging market peers and, more importantly, the real repo rate is still below its
estimated neutral level of 2.5%.
Where are we now?
It is encouraging to see that some of the shocks that drove the surge in global
inflation have begun to ease. After peaking around the middle of 2022, global
inflation moderated somewhat in the fourth quarter of 2022 and into the first quarter
of 2023. However, although these developments have, overall, been positive, for
many economies inflation still remains elevated and well above central bank
targets. Importantly, inflation is showing signs of persistence in several sectors.
The latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook projects
global inflation at 7.0% this year, down from the 2022 average of 8.7%. Inflation is
expected to further moderate to 4.9% in 2024. This decelerating trend is reflective
of lower food and commodity prices, particularly oil, coupled with the gradual
unwinding of supply constraints. Although demand pressures have begun easing
somewhat in response to global monetary and fiscal policy normalisation, core
inflation remains high and persistent, risking prolonged target breaches in most
economies, which could lead to some de-anchoring of inflation expectations.
Furthermore, the global growth outlook remains weak. Following the steady
recovery in trading-partner growth in 2021 of 7.0%, growth slowed to an estimated
3.5% last year. Looking ahead, and in line with higher prevailing interest rates, the
SARB expects trading-partner growth to average 2.0% this year, before rising
gradually to 2.6% in 2024 and 3.1% in 2025.2
In addition to slow global growth, rising interest rates have also triggered banking
sector stresses in the United States (US) and Europe - leading to tighter global
credit conditions as markets and financial institutions readjust their portfolios.
Consequently, uncertainty around the path for the US Federal Reserve's (Fed)
federal funds rate has increased over the near term. This has added to financial
market volatility and the resulting 'risk-off sentiment' is impacting small open
economies such as South Africa. These bank stresses have also added to global
policy uncertainty as the size and duration of these effects are still playing out, as
can be seen in the recent failure of First Republic Bank at the beginning of May
2023.
The domestic inflation landscape
When I mentioned earlier some of the positive global developments over recent
months, one of them has been a reduction in delivery lags and supply bottlenecks,
which has contributed favourably to the inflation dynamics of some countries.
Unfortunately, this has yet to have a material impact on our domestic inflation,
mainly due to idiosyncratic domestic factors. In fact, it is expected that our own
domestic infrastructural bottlenecks will continue to exert upside pressure on the
inflation outlook.
In addition to the initial studies on the impact of load-shedding on growth, there is
recognition and growing evidence that the country's ongoing energy supply
challenges are impacting on prices as well. The SARB now estimates that load-
shedding will add 0.5 percentage points to headline inflation in 2023.3 This
calculation has taken into account the cost of alternative energy sources such as
solar or back-up power generators - costs which are assumed will likely be passed
on to consumers.
Overall, South Africa is no different from most countries that have experienced a
surge in price pressures. With our economy being an open economy, global price
pressures were bound to, sooner or later, reach our shores. Higher global food and
oil prices and, more generally, elevated global goods inflation, translated to
inflationary pressures in the domestic economy - partly transmitted via the weaker
rand - a point I will revisit later. This pushed domestic headline inflation to a high
of 7.8% in July 2022 - a rate that was last reached almost 14 years ago.
Parallel to the somewhat easing global price pressures, domestic headline inflation
has gradually slowed and came in at 7.1% in March 2023. However, despite this
moderation - primarily driven by a decline in fuel prices from the peaks observed
in mid-2022 - inflation remains well above the SARB's preferred midpoint of the 3-
6% target range. Inflation edged slightly higher in February and March 2023, after
recording 6.9% in January, underpinned by rising food and core inflation.
Nonetheless, we expect a return to the 4.5% midpoint - though only by the third
quarter of 2025.
In South Africa, food inflation has continued to surprise to the upside, despite the
decelerating trend observed in global agricultural commodities. Domestic meat
inflation remains elevated, reflective of lingering domestic supply constraints in the
beef market after the outbreak of foot and mouth disease last year. The expectation
is for market conditions to improve gradually over the near term. However, the
ongoing electricity supply challenge is likely to have more of an impact on energy-
sensitive markets, such as poultry and dairy farming.
Another important factor that has impacted inflation in South African has been
exchange rate weakness. The rand has been one of the worst-performing
emerging market currencies this year and over the past 12 months.4 Idiosyncratic
factors such as persistent load-shedding and the recent greylisting of the country
by the Financial Action Task Force have kept investors wary. And, by extension,
the rand depreciation has negated the impact of lower global energy and food costs
on domestic inflation.
Of concern is that core inflation, which excludes the more volatile food and energy
components from the consumer price index (CPI) basket, remains sticky. The
pressure on core inflation has been mainly driven by repriced imported goods
costs. But apart from higher imported goods costs, one needs to keep an eye on
core services inflation. To date, services inflation has remained relatively subdued
- averaging around 3.9% in 2022. However, upside risks seem clear, especially in
medical insurance as premiums move closer towards their longer-term average
rates. In addition to this, the tightening rental housing market and high inflation
expectations are expected to exert upside pressure on core inflation over the near
term. Risks to services inflation also emanate from spillover effects from higher
food and fuel inflation as well as possible higher wage increases given the adaptive
nature of wage settlements in our economy. (We have already seen sharply higher
wage settlements in the public sector.) We predict that core inflation will only
decline to the target midpoint in the second quarter of 2025.
Inflation has important distributional consequences, with the poor and those living
on fixed incomes the most adversely impacted. The current inflation surge has
been underpinned by high food and fuel price increases that more adversely affect
the consumption baskets of poorer households. Statistics South Africa (Stats SA)
data show inflation for the lowest expenditure deciles (deciles 1 and 2) at about
11% in March 2023, while that for expenditure deciles 9 and 10 is around 6.5%.
Unlike high-income South Africans, low-income earners and the poor more
generally cannot protect their incomes from erosion due to inflation, and this results
in rising income inequality in our country. This is a critical reason for the SARB's
constitutional mandate to protect the purchasing power of the rand, as this
mandate ensures that we can continue to work towards improving and advancing
the economic well-being of all South Africans.
Looking ahead, domestic headline inflation is projected to remain elevated,
returning to the target range in the third quarter of this year and averaging 6.0% for
the year. A more pronounced moderation in inflationary pressures is only expected
in the latter years of the forecast horizon, with headline inflation projected to
average 4.9% in 2024, before reaching the midpoint of the target range only in
2025.
What this means for growth
The SARB, like many other central banks elsewhere in the world, has to deal with
the task of maintaining price stability. In South Africa we protect the value of the
currency in the interest of balanced and sustainable growth, as stated in our
constitutionally enshrined mandate. The challenging part now is that we must do
this in a context where many of the drivers of both inflation and growth are outside
of our control. Central banks have a very constrained policy toolkit to steer growth
and can only effectively smooth business cycle fluctuations. By design, central
banks are not capacitated to influence the long-run growth trajectory for the
economy, as the decisions needed require governments to make policy trade-offs
that entail winners and losers.5 Good decisions, of course, generate growth,
making it possible for governments to compensate losers both as the economy
itself gets much larger but also through direct transfers where required.
Fighting inflation is much harder when the economy is already underperforming,
as tighter financial conditions have the effect of cooling economic activity more
broadly. Yet, if allowed to persist, high inflation will either fatally undermine the
economy's growth potential or raise the nearer-term costs of eventually bringing
inflation back to target. As we have often said, the prevailing conditions, more than
ever before, have brought the monetary policy conundrum to the fore.
For instance, world growth is expected to be lower this year as the lagged impact
of policy tightening weighs on real incomes and dampens demand.6 Demand for
South African exports is likely to be weaker and this could be exacerbated by a
decreasing trend in commodity prices, which had previously helped mitigate what
otherwise would have been a much more dire fiscal situation over the past two or
so years.7 Together with increased alternative energy imports, this means that our
terms of trade will deteriorate further.
Following the robust growth rate of 4.9% recorded in 2021, the domestic economy
slowed sharply to 2.0% in 2022. The SARB now forecasts growth of 0.2% this year,
and to average 1.0% in the following two years - this is barely an expansion. In
fact, this is a reflection of the headwinds that the domestic economy continues to
face. The ongoing infrastructure challenges, especially for electricity, continue to
impose a hard constraint on growth. The SARB estimates that load-shedding alone
will reduce GDP growth by 2% this year, after knocking off 0.7 percentage from
growth in the previous year.
We trust that the government will remain committed to implementing structural
reform measures, especially with regard to logistics and electricity. We believe that
the implementation of much-needed structural reforms will unlock South Africa's
growth potential and, in turn, address the long-standing unemployment challenges
of the country.
Concluding remarks
In conclusion, it is safe to say that the past few years have presented a new set of
challenges for macroeconomic policymakers across the globe. Although the
demand and supply mismatches we witnessed at the peak of the pandemic and
when the Russia-Ukraine war broke out last year have eased significantly,
imbalances continue to linger, and risks remain elevated. Despite the decelerating
inflation trend over recent months, inflation remains above target in many
jurisdictions, with core inflation showing signs of persistence - this is despite sharp
policy tightening by monetary policy authorities across the globe.
South Africa's experience has paralleled that of the global economy, with high
inflation and slowing growth. However, domestic idiosyncrasies have played an
outsized role in these developments over the past year, suggesting that we could
have had somewhat lower inflation and stronger growth had structural policy
settings been more favourable. Put differently, we are suffering from largely self-
inflicted wounds.
With headline inflation having remained above the target midpoint for an extended
period, the SARB's Monetary Policy Committee has had to act decisively to prevent
inflation expectations from de-anchoring more permanently. Over the past 18
months, the repo rate has been raised by a cumulative 425 basis points, and now
sits at 7.75%. Still, the real policy rate remains somewhat accommodative, being
slightly below its estimated neutral rate of 2.5%.
As we have reiterated before, we are constantly monitoring price developments
and stand ready to act as necessary to fulfil our mandate. As an independent
central bank operating a flexible inflation-targeting framework, the SARB's primary
goal is to guide inflation and inflation expectations closer to the midpoint of the
target band. I believe that many of us here understand that low and stable inflation
is a prerequisite for a conducive business environment and, in turn, for inclusive
and sustainable economic growth. We remain committed to ensuring price stability.
Thank you.