Good afternoon Rotarians, ladies and gentlemen,
First allow me to thank Rotary Club of Curaçao for the invitation to give a presentation today on a very important topic, "Achieving a
higher and more inclusive growth path for Curaçao".
For some years already, the economic performance of Curaçao has been disappointing. It is therefore necessary that we change this
negative trend and realize a higher pace of growth. Today I would like to discuss with you some challenges that may pose a downside
risk to our growth prospects. Furthermore, I will provide some policy recommendations to achieve a higher and more inclusive
growth path.
Let me emphasize in this context that inclusiveness is crucial. Evidence suggests that when the benefits of growth are shared more
broadly, growth is stronger, more durable, and more resilient.
Let me start by giving you a brief overview of our recent economic performance and prospects.
As you can see in this table, the current account of the balance of payments of the monetary union will worsen in both 2018 and
2019 due mainly to a decline in exports combined with an increase in imports. Meanwhile, gross foreign reserves of the central bank
are projected to increase as foreign financing will be more than sufficient to cover the current account deficit.
In 2018, real GDP is projected to contract by -1.6% in Curaçao. Domestic demand will decrease because of a decline in private
consumption, public investment and consumption.
Private consumption will decline because of lower
disposable income due to higher inflationary pressures and the worsened situation in the
labor market. Public investment will decline because the construction of the new
hospital is reaching its final stages, and consumption because of less spending on goods
Imports will increase because of more imports by the manufacturing and
& services and on wages & salaries.
wholesale & retail trade sector, while exports will rise because of more tourism activities and more bunkering activities.
For 2019, a slight real GDP expansion of 0.4% is projected supported mainly by private investment growth in the hotels &
restaurants, transportation, and utilities sectors. Also, exports will increase because of more air transportation, tourism, and ship
repair activities. Imports will also increase thanks to the private investment growth.
Changes in international oil and food prices have a considerable impact on our local prices. Consequently, the inflation rate is
projected to increase to 2.2% in 2018 on the back of higher international oil and food prices. In 2019, inflation will ease slightly due
to a projected decline in international oil prices.
Meanwhile, the 14.1% (in 2017) unemployment rate in Curaçao is among the highest in the Caribbean region and is expected to
remain around 13/14% in the coming years. Important to mention is that the positive development in 2019 is only possible under the
assumption that the expected private investments indeed take place and the investments that are currently ongoing indeed finalize.
As I have already shown on the previous slide, we expect a slight economic growth for 2019. However, there are some risks and
challenges that could put a drag on our growth prospects for 2019 and beyond.
I would like to focus on three of them. First, our exposure to Venezuela. Second, the developments in the international financial
services sector, which is one of the pillars of our economy. And third, our public finances with a special focus on the Hospital Nobo
Otrobanda.
Because of our geographic proximity, Venezuela has always been one of our main trading partners. Consequently, activities in key
economic sectors of our economy were affected by the deep recession and unstable situation in Venezuela of the past years.
The pie charts on this slide show Curaçao's exports, imports, and total trade by geographical area.
As shown in the first pie chart, Venezuela is Curaçao's second most important export market with a share of 17.9% of the total
exports of goods and services. It is important to note that the bulk of foreign exchange income from Venezuela is generated from
the refining activities of the Isla refinery.
In the second pie chart, it is shown that Venezuela's share in Curaçao's import of goods and services is 16.5%, thereby making it the
second highest after the United States. Curaçao imports primarily merchandise from Venezuela, of which oil (89%) is the most
important product.
A breakdown of total trade, i.e., the sum of export and import of goods and services, as shown in the third pie chart, reveals that
Venezuela is Curacao's second most important trading partner with a share of 17.2% of total trade.
To assess the effect of trade with Venezuela on the real GDP of Curaçao, we calculated a scenario in which all trade transactions
between Curaçao and Venezuela were removed and a scenario in which all transactions with only the Isla Refinery were removed.
As Venezuela is one of Curacao's main trading partners, a discontinuation of all trade will have a negative effect on real GDP, causing
a contraction of 5.2% in Curaçao whilst the effect of the closing of only the Isla refinery would mean that the real GDP of Curaçao
would contract by 2.5%.
Private consumption will drop because of lay-offs, which is a result of a decline in activities in other important export sectors, namely
tourism, wholesale & retail trade, and transportation. Meanwhile private investment will drop since no investments will be taking place
at the Isla refinery. Public consumption will contract as the government will receive less tax income.
Exports will drop and will result in lower foreign exchange revenues due to the decline in the refining fee, transportation activities,
tourism activities and re-exports by the free-zone companies. Imports will decline as well, due to a decline in domestic spending, less
tourism spending, less free-zone re-exports and no import of goods and services by the Isla refinery.
The inflation rate will increase as the non-oil merchandise imports from Venezuela will be replaced by imports from other countries
at a higher price.
The unemployment rate will rise with 0.5%.
The international financial services sector has been an important pillar of the economy of Curacao since the 1930.
However, over the past twenty years, the sector has experienced a gradual decline due to among other things, the termination of the
Tax Treaty with the United States and the abolishment of the US Foreign Withholding Tax. Also, increased competition from
taxexempt jurisdictions has affected our international financial services sector.
One of the main tax measures that had an impact on the sector, was the enactment of a New Fiscal Regime in 2001 to be in full
compliance with the policies of the OECD for fair tax practices. The NFR ended the distinction between onshore and offshore
entities. However, institutions that already existed in 1999 have been given a transitional phase of 20 years to be able to adapt to the
new offshore regime. After the exemption period, offshore companies will be subject to the onshore tax regime. This grandfather
clause will end in 2019.
These pie charts depict the total foreign exchange income from the export of goods and
services by economic sector.
Although its contribution has declined over the past 20 years the international financial services
(6% compared to 18%),
sector still remains an important economic pillar of Curaçao. Overall, the sector represents approximately 6% of the total GDP of
Curaçao.
The sector provides labor intensive high-skilled employment to more than 1,000 persons and contributes indirectly to the economy
through spillover effects to other related industries including the business, telecommunication, transportation and hospitality sectors.
in terms of foreign exchange income,
Comparing the year 2017 with 2000 reveals that, the Curaçao
Although the
economy has become significantly more dependent on the tourism industry.
growth of the tourism sector is a welcome development, losing a key economic pillar such as the international financial services
sector can be considered a weakness as the economy will become less diversified.
As I mentioned earlier, the grandfather clause will expire in 2019. As most of the offshore companies have already changed or
adjusted their products, clients and the way they are doing business, the CBCS expects limited impact of the expiration of the
exemption period on the sector and, hence, the economy.
Nevertheless, this sector needs to be strengthened to provide a higher contribution to our economy. The sector can grow if the right
are taken. These steps include:
The implementation of the Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) Multilateral Instrument (MLI) recommendations. The
•steps
International Organization of Securities Commissions (OECD) launched the BEPS in 2017 to ensure a "stronger and fairer
international tax system" for governments and taxpayers equally. Hence, by implementing these standards, Curacao is taking
the steps in the right direction to strengthen the sector.
• Becoming a Multilateral Memorandum of Understanding signatory member of IOSCO. The CBCS is working on becoming a
signatory member of IOSCO as the global standard setter for the securities sector.
• Compliance with the latest standards of worldwide regulators. As an example CBCS has recently been entrusted with the
supervision of Securities Intermediaries and Asset Managers.
Embrace innovation and capitalize on Fintech products and services. In this respect CBCS has installed an Innovation
•
platform in which different CBCS experts are represented that functions as sparring partner for different investors in this
respect.
With these steps, we can transform Curaçao into a modern and transparent jurisdiction that can attract bona fide customers.
Sound public finances and debt sustainability are important preconditions for macroeconomic stability. Evidence shows that
macroeconomic stability has a positive effect on economic growth.
This graph shows the development on the current budget of the government of Curaçao
since becoming an autonomous country in the Dutch Kingdom in 2010. Sound public
finances are critical for macroeconomic stability, since 2010, it seems that adherence to
strict budgetary norms has been the main focus of the government while other
important policy areas have not gotten the attention they deserve. In fact, the economy
has been trapped in a downward spiral of low economic growth, worsening public
finances, and social decline.
For 2018,
In 2017 the government recorded a current budget deficit of NAf.116.8 million.
however, the government expects a surplus of NAf.42 million on its budget, even though tax income has been lower than initially
projected.
Meanwhile, Curaçao's debt-to-GDP ratio has been increasing since 2012. Curaçao entered its status of autonomous country with a
debt-to-GDP ratio of 34,6% in 2010. As you can see, today, the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 50%.
The government of Curaçao started to borrow in 2014 for the construction of the new hospital, Hospital Nobo Otrobanda (HNO).
Therefore, the government issued two bonds, totaling NAf.492.5 million. Currently, the financing of the construction of the hospital
represents 17.5% of the total outstanding public debt and 8.8% of our GDP.
Nevertheless, an additional NAf.200.0 million is still needed to finalize this project. There are two possible options to obtain these
additional funds. First, the government can issue a NAf.200.0 million bond loan resulting in a higher debt-to-GDP ratio. The second
option is that HNO directly borrows the required funds from local and international institutional investors, in this case the public
debt to GDP ratio will not increase. It seems that this last option is being considered as the most viable one at this moment.
However, there will be still risks involved for the government. Assuming that the social security bank, SVB, will have to guarantee the
loan to the private institutional investors, in case of a default by the hospital, the SVB will have to repay these debts. Hence, this could
affect the sustainability of the social insurances and, indirectly, the public finances. It will be crucial that the hospital is able to comply
with the financial obligations towards its lenders in the future. Therefore, continuous supervision on the hospital's operations will be
very important.
Finally, I would like to present some policy recommendations to address these risks and achieve a higher and more inclusive growth
path.
The considerable negative effects that external shocks, such as the situation in Venezuela, have on
our economies underscore the importance of strengthening our resilience. One of the strategies to
strengthen our resilience is economic diversification. First, the public and private sectors should act
together to strengthen the current economic pillars and develop new sectors. Second, Curaçao
should also diversify its tourism source market and implement the Tourism Master Plan.
Curaçao also has to address the structural weaknesses in its macroeconomic environment that are
impeding growth. These weaknesses include complex and lengthy administrative procedures that
can delay the execution of investment projects or even discourage investors from starting a new
venture.
Another barrier to growth is the limited access to risk capital and long-term financing, particularly
In Curacao, the
for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) that are the backbone of our economies.
fragmentation in the market for high-risk financing should be addressed. The current public entities should consider working more closely together
and eventually merging in the future.
Furthermore,
the high cost of doing business is another impediment to growth in Curaçao that needs to
be addressed. Recent technological advancements provide opportunities to reduce the cost of
doing business through diversification towards alternative sources of energy such as wind, sun, and
cold seawater.
Curaçao should develop a strategy aimed at transforming its economy to achieve a higher
and more inclusive growth path. Structural reforms to improve the investment climate
are therefore crucial. After all, a more enabling investment climate will unleash private
investment, which is ultimately the driver of sustainable growth.
However, private sector investments frequently also demand public investments in key
infrastructure and human resources. Therefore, the growth strategy for the future should
include public sector investments for improving the public infrastructure and
strengthening our human resources.
In times of external shock-inflicted economic crises, the strict budgetary norms can act counterproductive and dampen prospects of
economic recovery. Therefore, more flexibility should be introduced into the budgetary norms in periods of prolonged economic
downturn.
However, the growth strategy should not be considered a plea to increase public sector debt to unsustainable levels. If temporary
deviations are allowed, then an important condition should be that the government must implement a realistic plan, including
structural reforms, to comply again with the norms within an agreed time frame.
Given the current economic situation and the many challenges facing Curacao, only a comprehensive and well-balanced growth
strategy that includes structural reform measures will help us reach a sustainable higher and more inclusive economic growth path.
Thank you for your attention.