News conference
Embargo
20 June 2024, 10.00 am
Introductory remarks by the Governing Board
Thomas Jordan, Martin Schlegel and Antoine Martin
Chairman of the Governing Board / Vice Chairman of the Governing Board / Member of the
Governing Board
Swiss National Bank
Zurich, 20 June 2024
© Swiss National Bank
Ladies and gentlemen
As Chairman of the Governing Board, it is my pleasure to welcome you to the news
conference of the Swiss National Bank. I would also like to welcome all those who are
joining us today online. After our introductory remarks, we will take questions from
journalists as usual. Questions can also be asked by telephone.
Monetary policy decision
I will begin with our monetary policy decision. We have decided to lower the SNB policy rate
by 0.25 percentage points to 1.25%. The change applies from tomorrow, 21 June 2024.
Banks' sight deposits held at the SNB will be remunerated at the SNB policy rate up to a
certain threshold, and at 0.75% above this threshold. We are also willing to be active in the
foreign exchange market as necessary.
The underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again compared to the previous quarter.
With today's lowering of the SNB policy rate, we are able to maintain appropriate monetary
conditions. We will continue to monitor the development of inflation closely, and will adjust
our monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with
price stability over the medium term.
Inflation forecast
Allow me to address the development of inflation in more detail. Inflation has risen slightly
since the last monetary policy assessment, as we expected at the time, and stood at 1.4% in
May. Higher inflation in rents, tourism services and oil products has contributed in particular
to this increase. Overall, inflation in Switzerland is currently being driven above all by higher
prices for domestic services.
Taking into account today's policy rate cut, our new conditional inflation forecast is similar to
that of March. Over the longer term, it is slightly below the previous forecast. This reflects
somewhat lower second-round effects. Over the entire forecast horizon, the conditional
inflation forecast is within the range of price stability (cf. chart). The forecast puts average
annual inflation at 1.3% for 2024, 1.1% for 2025 and 1.0% for 2026 (cf. table). It is based on
the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 1.25% over the entire forecast horizon. Without
today's rate cut, the forecast would have been lower.
Global economic outlook
Let me now turn to the global economic outlook. Global economic growth was solid in the
first quarter of 2024. In Europe, the economy gained momentum somewhat following the
stagnation of previous quarters. In the US, economic activity remained robust despite a
slowdown in growth.
Inflation largely moved sideways over the past months, and remained above central banks'
targets in many countries. However, the underlying inflationary pressure continued to
decrease slightly. Against this background, some central banks eased their monetary policy
for the first time following the tightening cycle of the past two years. However, monetary
policy remains restrictive in many countries.
Inflationary pressure abroad is likely to continue to ease gradually over the next quarters. At
the same time, the global economy is likely to pick up somewhat. Consumers' purchasing
power should gradually recover and the dampening effect of the monetary policy tightening
should ease slowly. However, for the coming quarters we expect only moderate growth in
global economic activity by longer-term comparison.
Our scenario for the global economy is still subject to significant risks. Inflation could remain
elevated for longer in some countries, necessitating a tighter monetary policy there than
expected in our baseline scenario. Equally, a renewed increase in geopolitical tensions could
result in weaker development of global economic activity.
Swiss economic outlook
How does the economic situation look in Switzerland? GDP growth was moderate in the first
quarter of 2024. The services sector continued to expand, while value added in manufacturing
stagnated. This stagnation was above all attributable to the subdued momentum in the
manufacturing sector globally. There was a further slight increase in unemployment. The
utilisation of overall production capacity was normal.
Growth is likely to remain moderate in Switzerland in the coming quarters. We anticipate
GDP growth of around 1% this year. In this environment, unemployment is likely to continue
to rise slightly, and the utilisation of production capacity is set to decline slightly. Over the
medium term, economic activity should improve gradually, supported by somewhat stronger
demand from abroad. We currently expect growth of around 1.5% for 2025.
Our forecast for Switzerland, as for the global economy, is subject to significant uncertainty.
Developments abroad represent the main risk.
Monetary policy outlook
Ladies and gentlemen, allow me to return to our monetary policy.
As we expected at the monetary policy assessment in March, inflation has risen slightly in
recent months. However, the underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further compared
with the previous quarter owing to somewhat lower second-round effects. With today's
lowering of the SNB policy rate, we are able to maintain appropriate monetary conditions.
Forecasted inflation is within the range of price stability over the entire forecast horizon.
Let me now say a few words about the exchange rate. The Swiss franc depreciated from
January to the end of May. However, it has increased in value again significantly in the past
weeks. The recent appreciation is above all attributable to political uncertainties in Europe.
This, too, is contributing to uncertainty about the development of inflation remaining
elevated. We will therefore continue to monitor the situation closely and use our monetary
policy measures to ensure that inflation remains within the range consistent with price
stability on a sustainable basis over the medium term. We also remain willing to be active in
the foreign exchange market as necessary.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your attention. I will now hand over to Martin Schlegel.
Financial Stability Report
The SNB published its latest Financial Stability Report today. In this report we explain our
assessment of the stability of the Swiss banking sector.
Over the last year, the Swiss banking sector has strengthened its resilience. Thanks to
increased profits, the banks were able to build up their capital buffers overall. We welcome
the strengthening of resilience given the prevailing risks. I would like to discuss four risks in
particular.
First, the crisis at Credit Suisse revealed weaknesses in the regulations. The Federal Council's
report on banking stability identifies measures to remedy these weaknesses. We support the
measures and are involved in their development. In the area of capital, proposed measures
include strengthening the capital backing of participations and the loss-absorbing capacity of
AT1 capital instruments. This would ensure that the regulatory capital figures better reflect a
bank's actual loss-absorbing capacity. Furthermore, these capital figures should be
complemented by forward-looking elements such as market indicators and stress tests.
Second, the mortgage and real estate markets continue to pose significant risks. This concerns
the domestically focused banks in particular, since their main business is granting mortgages.
With the rise in interest rates, growth in mortgage lending has declined and price momentum
on the real estate market slowed. At the same time, however, mortgage affordability risks
persist. Moreover, the vulnerability of the real estate market to price corrections remains
elevated.
Third, last year's bank crises highlighted liquidity risks. Even when banks have large liquidity
buffers, they can still face substantial liquidity risks due to their short-term funding. Banks
finance themselves largely through deposits, which can be rapidly withdrawn. Regulations
should provide incentives for longer-term funding. In addition, banks should prepare more
collateral for obtaining liquidity assistance. More stable funding and better preparation for
obtaining liquidity strengthen the resilience of the banking sector.
And finally, let me turn to operational risks in the financial system. Banks and financial
market infrastructures are increasingly exposed to cyber risks. Moreover, a rise in the
outsourcing of functions to third-party providers can lead to banks becoming more dependent
on unregulated providers. It is important that financial market participants adequately manage
their operational risks.
I will now hand over to Antoine Martin.
I would now like to give you some news about the SNB's Project Helvetia III. As you know,
since 1 December 2023, the SNB has been providing wholesale central bank digital currency
(wholesale CBDC) as part of this innovative project. It issues this wholesale CBDC on the
regulated SIX Digital Exchange (SDX), which uses distributed ledger technology. Digital
(token-based) Swiss franc bond transactions can thus be settled in central bank money directly
on SDX. With Project Helvetia III, the SNB is playing a globally leading role in deploying
wholesale CBDC in a live production environment.
Six banks are participating in the current Project Helvetia III pilot: Banque Cantonale
Vaudoise, Basler Kantonalbank, Commerzbank, Hypothekarbank Lenzburg, UBS and
Zürcher Kantonalbank. These banks have to date settled six digital bond issuances. The
cantons of Basel-Stadt and Zurich, the cities of Lugano and St Gallen, as well as UBS and the
World Bank have each issued a bond on SDX as part of the pilot project. The total value of
transactions settled is around CHF 750 million.
At the beginning of June, the SNB became the world's first central bank to carry out a
monetary policy operation in a live production environment using distributed ledger
technology. Specifically, we successfully issued digital SNB Bills on SDX. These
tokenbased SNB Bills (issued volume: CHF 64 million) had a term of one week.
Project Helvetia III has been very successful to date. The SNB has therefore decided to
continue the pilot project for at least two more years and to broaden its scope. The SNB hopes
that additional financial institutions will participate over time and that wholesale CBDC can
be made available for a wider range of financial transactions. The financial institutions will be
informed in due course about how they can participate.
By continuing the Project Helvetia pilot, the SNB is supporting private-sector innovation. The
future success of the pilot project will largely depend on whether new financial market
participants join, whether the volume of transactions increases, and whether additional
financial market transactions are settled on this platform.
The pilot does not constitute a commitment on the part of the SNB to introduce wholesale
CBDC or digital SNB Bills on a permanent basis.
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