Jean-Pierre Roth: The financial crisis is receding - what will the future
bring?
Summary of a speech by Mr Jean-Pierre Roth, Chairman of the Governing Board of the
Swiss National Bank, at the Centro di Studi Bancari, Vezia, 15 December 2009.
The complete speech can be found in French on the Swiss National Bank's website (www.snb.ch).
* * *
After the financial crisis, the global economy will enter a phase of weak economic growth.
Unemployment levels in the industrialised countries will be comparatively high. Public
finances in these countries have been heavily depleted, both by the crisis and by the needs
arising from the ageing of their populations, and will need to be consolidated. In monetary
terms, inflation will remain under control, at least in those countries whose central banks
enjoy a strong level of independence.
Switzerland is comparatively well equipped to meet these challenges. Its public finances are
in a healthy state and it is sufficiently open to the world to participate in its most dynamic
markets. With its tradition of high quality and cutting-edge technology, Switzerland is well
positioned to react to specific market requirements. Moreover, it can draw on considerable
financial resources and, thanks to the openness of its labour market, also has easy access to
labour resources, without which growth would not be possible. Switzerland's only major
drawback is the fact that it is a lightweight in the geopolitical arena, which makes it almost
impossible for it to defend itself against protectionist tendencies and discriminatory measures
taken by big countries.
The Swiss government must therefore take a strong stand on behalf of free trade, while also
ensuring that the private sector operates within the best possible framework for its further
development. Ultimately, our future welfare depends on the vitality of the private sector, not
on any state intervention.