Japan's Economy and Monetary Policy
Speech at a Meeting with Business Leaders in Kyoto
Masayoshi Amamiya
Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan
Introduction
Before I begin my speech, I would like to extend my sincere condolences to the victims of
the torrential rains last month and express my deepest sympathies to those who are suffering.
Some areas, especially in the northern part of Kyoto Prefecture, continue to be severely
affected and there is still much to be worried about.
I am very honored to have the opportunity to exchange views with administrative, financial,
and business leaders in Kyoto Prefecture today. I would also like to take this opportunity to
express my sincere gratitude for your cooperation with the activities of the Bank of Japan's
Kyoto Branch.
At the Monetary Policy Meeting (MPM) two days ago, the Bank released its quarterly
Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (Outlook Report) containing the projections for
Japan's economic activity and prices through fiscal 2020 and a detailed analysis on price
developments. In addition, it strengthened the policy framework with a view to persistently
continuing with the current powerful monetary easing. Today, I would like to explain the
Bank's view on economic activity and prices as well as the new policy measures, while
outlining the Outlook Report.
I. Economic Developments in Japan
Let me start with economic developments in Japan. Japan's economy has improved
significantly over the past five years. The current economic recovery phase, which began in
December 2012, has reached 66 consecutive months this May. If this recovery continues
through January next year, it could overtake the longest post-war expansion of the economy
so far, which lasted 73 months. Corporate profits have been at record high levels, and the
labor market has been close to full employment, with the unemployment rate being in the
range of 2.0-2.5 percent -- the lowest level in around 25 years (Chart 1). Confirming this
situation by looking at the output gap, which represents the utilization of capital and labor,
shows that it exceeded the long-term average of 0 percent around 2013, clearly turned
positive in the second half of 2016, and since then has been widening further within positive
territory (Chart 2). Turning to wages and prices, a base pay increase has been achieved for
five consecutive years as a result of wage negotiations. In addition, the year-on-year rate of
change in the consumer price index (CPI) excluding energy and fresh food has been on an
uptrend for more than four and a half years since autumn 2013, and Japan's economy is no
longer in deflation, in the sense of a sustained decline in prices.
II. Price Developments
Thus, Japan's economic activity and prices have improved steadily over the past five years.
However, prices have continued to show relatively weak developments compared to the
economic expansion and the labor market tightening, and the Bank's price stability target of
2 percent in terms of the annual inflation rate has not yet been achieved. For this reason, in
formulating the latest Outlook Report, the Bank focused on examining the reasons for these
sluggish price developments and their outlook. In what follows, I would like to present the
contents of the report and talk in more detail about the price situation in Japan.
A. Why Is the Bank Aiming at 2 Percent Inflation?
Before explaining the background to the continued relatively weak developments in prices,
I will first talk about the reasons why the Bank is aiming at achieving the price stability
target of 2 percent. I start with this topic because people often make comments such as "The
price stability target of 2 percent is too high in the first place and it may not be necessary to
aim at it forcibly," or "As long as the economy is growing, it would be better if prices do not
rise."
The fundamental mission of central banks in conducting monetary policy is to achieve price
stability. Price stability is a situation that is neither deflationary nor inflationary -- in other
words, prices neither rise nor fall -- and thus could mean that the year-on-year rate of
change is 0 percent in numerical terms. However, the specific definition of price stability
currently shared among advanced economies is that a slightly positive annual inflation rate,
rather than a rate of 0 percent, would be desirable (Chart 3).
The first reason is that the CPI -- the price statistics that many central banks refer to -- has a
statistical tendency of demonstrating a slightly higher inflation rate than the actual one.
While I will not explain this in detail, as it is somewhat technical, considering such
statistical tendency, or upward bias, an appropriate figure for price stability in terms of the
CPI is a slightly positive figure.
The second reason for aiming at 2 percent inflation is the need to have a buffer for monetary
policy. Central banks usually respond to inflation and deflation by raising or lowering
interest rates. In the event of inflation, central banks can raise interest rates as much as
necessary to suppress inflation. The reason for this is that there is no ceiling to interest rates.
On the other hand, when we face deflation, there is a limit to the extent to which interest
rates can be lowered. In recent years, a new approach employing negative interest rates has
been developed, but it remains impossible to lower interest rates without limits. Deflation is
a more troublesome phenomenon than inflation in the sense that central banks' ability to
respond to the former is limited. Thus, it is desirable to have a buffer for monetary policy;
that is, to secure a certain "margin" of positive inflation and positive interest rates in
advance, so that central banks can take appropriate responses through monetary easing if
the economy heads toward deflation.
What these two reasons imply is that we should aim at a slightly positive inflation rate.
However, there is no simple answer as to whether this should be 1 percent, 2 percent, or 3
percent. The important point is that central banks in major advanced economies more or less
commonly define price stability as 2 percent. Of course, this is not based on a reckless
argument that we should simply do what others are doing because there is no conclusive
evidence as to what the inflation target should be. The reason why major advanced
economies share the same inflation target and achieve a similar price situation is that, from
a long-term perspective, this is likely to result in stable exchange rates. While exchange
rates fluctuate due to a variety of factors in the short term, their trend over a longer term of
5 or 10 years reflects the difference in inflation between two countries. This is the concept
of purchasing power parity. Therefore, aiming at the global standard of 2 percent inflation is
very important in achieving stability in business management and in the economy as a
whole through stable exchange rates.
So far, I have provided three reasons why the Bank is aiming at the price stability target of 2
percent. However, I would like you to understand that the Bank does not think that it is
enough simply to achieve 2 percent inflation. If only prices rise, real wages will decrease
and economic activity will stagnate. As clearly stipulated in the Bank of Japan Act, the
Bank shall implement monetary policy "aimed at achieving price stability, thereby
contributing to the sound development of the national economy." Thus, the Bank aims at an
economy in which prices rise moderately, as economic activity becomes more dynamic
through increases in firms' sales and fixed investment as well as improvement in
households' employment, wages, and consumption. An economy in which a virtuous cycle
among prices, wages, and economic activity continues to operate would create a world in
which the price stability target of 2 percent is achieved.
B. Why Are Prices Sluggish?
However, we are still halfway toward achieving the price stability target of 2 percent. The
latest Outlook Report presents a fairly detailed analysis on reasons why prices have
remained sluggish even though the economy has improved significantly. Today I would like
to present the essence of the report.
There are likely to be two main factors behind the fact that the pace of improvement in
prices has remained moderate. One is that the mindset and behavior based on the
assumption that wages and prices will not increase easily have been deeply entrenched
among firms and households due to the experience of prolonged low growth and deflation.
The other is that the large room to raise productivity and the technological progress in
recent years have allowed firms to constrain price rises as much as possible. Let me explain
these factors in detail by households' and firms' behaviors.
First, it has been taking time for wage increases to fully take hold despite labor shortage. In
particular, scheduled cash earnings of regular employees, who account for the majority of
total employees, have been sluggish. The year-on-year rate of increase in such earnings over
the past year has remained at around 0.5 percent (Chart 4). It is said that regular employees,
whose wage levels are relatively high, have a strong tendency to place priority on the
stability of employment over wage increases. Such tendency still seems to be persistent,
reflecting the experience of severe employment adjustments under prolonged low growth.
In addition, wage developments also are affected by growing diversity in terms of worker
type. From a long-term perspective, an increase in labor participation by women and seniors
in recent years is essential to cope with the declining trend in the working-age population,
which is a challenge for Japan's economy. In the short term, however, this increase will ease
labor shortage, thereby constraining wage increases.
Second, the fact that households' tolerance of price rises has not been increasing clearly has
been constraining a rise in inflation. According to the Bank's survey, following the
introduction of quantitative and qualitative monetary easing (QQE) in 2013, the level of
households' tolerance of price rises shifted upward in a favorable direction compared to past
levels. However, the level has not risen further (Chart 5). This is likely to be attributable to
the first reason mentioned earlier -- that is, it has been taking time for wage increases to
fully take hold.
Third, firms' cautious price-setting stance also has been constraining a rise in inflation.
Although wages have been rising, albeit moderately, and commodity prices such as of crude
oil have been on an uptrend, firms that are concerned about possibly losing customers due
to price hikes have been making efforts to absorb upward pressure of costs on prices by
increasing labor-saving investment and streamlining their business process. Firms have
been enthusiastic about making software investment in sectors such as "construction,"
"retailing," and "accommodations, eating and drinking services," where labor shortage is
acute, and many firms have offset a rise in labor costs by introducing self-checkout
machines and automatic ordering system (Chart 6). These efforts by firms are likely made
possible through the recent progress in information technology.
So far, I have talked about firms' cautious wage- and price-setting stance as well as
households' cautiousness toward price rises. Such mindset and behavior can be regarded as
a kind of "social mode" in Japan that has been brought about by the experience of prolonged
low growth and deflation, and it is likely to have been taking time to resolve this.
In addition, the effects of intensifying competition among firms cannot be ignored. For
example, retailers such as supermarkets have maintained their cautious price-setting stance,
reflecting in part the expansion of online shopping (Chart 7). This is the so-called Amazon
Effect, which is another example of rapid progress in information technology constraining a
rise in inflation.
C. Why Will Inflation Rise Going Forward?
Although it is taking time for inflation to rise, some changes have been seen amid the
continued improvement in the economic and employment conditions that I mentioned
earlier. For example, moves to raise sales prices are starting to be observed recently at a
wide range of firms, mainly in the services sector, such as dining-out (Chart 8). In addition,
Tankan
according to the Bank's (Short-Term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan), the
number of enterprises answering that the output prices have risen has been exceeding the
number of those answering that such prices have fallen for the first time in a while. As the
so-called baby boomers are reaching their 70s, labor market conditions are likely to tighten
further and the pace of increase in wages of mainly part-time employees is expected to
accelerate. As the effects of such moves of wage increases spread to regular employees'
wages, this will lead to an increase in households' tolerance of price rises. When this
happens, price rises by firms will be more easily accepted.
While price developments are affected by various factors that I have explained so far, the
factor that determines the underlying trend in prices is the aggregate supply-demand
balance. As the output gap has been maintained within positive territory -- showing excess
demand -- for a long time, in reflection of economic expansion, many of the aforementioned
factors that have been constraining inflation will likely be resolved gradually. If that
happens, another important factor that forms the underlying trend in prices is likely to
change -- that is, people's perception of prices, which means inflation expectations in a
broad sense, including households' tolerance of price rises and firms' price-setting
strategies.
The Bank assesses such factors that determine the underlying trend in prices by using the
word "momentum." If you look up "momentum" in a dictionary, it is defined as "force" or
"impetus," which imply a short period of time. However, as the objective of monetary
policy is achieving price stability in the long term, the Bank assesses the "momentum" in
terms of a somewhat longer time frame. Specifically, it makes a comprehensive judgment as
to whether the momentum is maintained by examining the main factors that determine the
underlying trend in prices, such as the output gap and medium- to long-term inflation
expectations, while making use of various indicators and information.
In the latest Outlook Report, the Bank projects that the year-on-year rates of change in the
CPI (less fresh food) for fiscal 2018 through fiscal 2020 are likely to be 1.1 percent, 1.5
percent, and 1.6 percent, respectively (Chart 9). We are in a difficult situation in terms of
achieving 2 percent inflation by fiscal 2020, as it is taking more time than expected for
inflation to rise. Nevertheless, the momentum whereby an improvement in the output gap
leads to an increase in actual inflation, and then a rise in inflation expectations, is
maintained. It is of utmost importance to sustain such positive momentum by maintaining
the output gap as long as possible within positive territory, and this is likely to be the most
certain path toward achieving 2 percent inflation.
III. The Bank's Conduct of Monetary Policy
Next, I would like to explain the Bank's conduct of monetary policy including the measures
decided at the MPM held two days ago.
The Bank has been pursuing powerful monetary easing under the policy framework of
"QQE with Yield Curve Control," aiming to achieve the price stability target of 2 percent
(Chart 10). In order to achieve the price stability target at the earliest possible time, the
Bank set the target level of 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yields at around zero
percent, and has purchased large amount of JGBs so that the yield curve would be formed in
line with the target. By conducting this operation, short- and long-term interest rates have
been stable at low levels and lending rates as well as issuance rates for corporate bonds -- to
which certain spreads are added in both cases -- also have remained at extremely low levels.
The amount outstanding of bank lending has been increasing firmly. Thus, the current
highly accommodative financial conditions, brought about by yield curve control, have
largely contributed to an improvement in the output gap, stimulating firms' and households'
spending activities. In addition, the Bank has purchased exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and
Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITs) with a view to exerting positive effects on
economic activity and prices through lowering risk premia in the stock market.
As I explained, following the discussion at the latest MPM, the Bank released its economic
projections, which show that it will take more time than expected to achieve the price
stability target of 2 percent. However, the momentum toward 2 percent inflation has been
maintained. Accordingly, as for the conduct of monetary policy, the Bank judged it
appropriate to persistently continue with the current powerful monetary easing, thereby
maintaining the output gap as long as possible within positive territory, in order to make the
momentum sustainable.
During the discussion, we thought it necessary to address two challenges. The first is to
firmly maintain confidence among the public regarding the Bank's current policy stance that
aims at achieving the price stability target of 2 percent. The second is to strengthen the
sustainability of the current powerful monetary easing so that the effects of monetary easing
will not be reduced while taking care of such factors as the negative effects on financial
markets, in a situation where monetary easing needs to be continued.
In order to address these two challenges, the Bank decided to newly implement measures to
strengthen the framework of powerful monetary easing. Today, within the limited time
provided, I would like to introduce particularly important measures (Chart 11).
First, the Bank decided to strengthen its commitment to achieving 2 percent inflation by
introducing forward guidance for policy rates. You may not be familiar with the term, but
forward guidance is a measure that guides the future policy path in order to strengthen
market confidence and expectations toward monetary policy. At the latest MPM, the Bank
publicly committed to "maintain the current extremely low levels of short- and long-term
interest rates for an extended period of time, taking into account uncertainties regarding
economic activity and prices including the effects of the consumption tax hike scheduled to
take place in October 2019." I would like to reiterate that, even though the projected timing
of reaching 2 percent inflation has been delayed, the Bank will not reduce the degree of
monetary easing.
Second, the Bank decided to implement several measures to enhance the sustainability of
"QQE with Yield Curve Control." For example, while the target level of 10-year JGB yields
is around zero percent, as I mentioned earlier, the Bank made it clear that, under the target,
the long-term yields might move upward and downward to some extent mainly depending
on developments in economic activity and prices. Recently, there is a growing concern in
the JGB market that the market functioning has been deteriorating, with the long-term
yields being somewhat stuck and the transaction volume being on a declining trend,
although this can be regarded in a sense as the consequence of powerful monetary easing. In
continuing with monetary easing, the Bank judged it necessary to allow the long-term yields
to move upward and downward to some extent mainly depending on developments in
economic activity and prices, thereby maintaining the market functioning so as not to create
more concern. However, the target level of the long-term yields remains at around zero
percent. In case of a rapid increase in the yields, the Bank will purchase JGBs promptly and
appropriately. The Bank does not expect the level of yields ratcheting up. In addition, as for
ETF purchases, from the same aspect of enhancing the sustainability of the current
monetary policy framework, the Bank made it clear that it might increase or decrease the
amount of purchases depending on market conditions, while maintaining the annual pace of
increase at about 6 trillion yen.
The aim of these policy measures is to strengthen the sustainability of the current powerful
monetary easing, taking into account the side effects. The Bank recognizes that the effects
of monetary easing will be strengthened as a whole, in consideration of this sustainability.
The Bank also recognizes the risk that, by continuing such powerful monetary easing,
financial institutions' strength will be cumulatively affected by low profitability, mainly
through a decrease in their lending margins, and thus the functioning of financial
intermediation will be stagnant. Currently, as financial institutions have sufficient capital
bases and their lending attitudes continue to be active, there is no serious problem with the
functioning of financial intermediation. However, there is no change in the Bank's intention
that it will thoroughly examine the risks considered most relevant to the conduct of
monetary policy. As a central bank, the Bank will continue conducting monetary policy in
an appropriate manner, taking account of developments in economic activity and prices as
well as financial conditions, so that the momentum toward 2 percent inflation will be
maintained and the economy thereby will grow in a balanced manner between economic
expansion and price stability.
Conclusion
To conclude, I would like to talk about the economy of Kyoto Prefecture.
Kyoto Prefecture's economy can be judged as having been expanding, even though the
effects of the torrential rains a while ago can be seen in part. In Kyoto, there are a number
of global manufacturers that represent Japan in sectors of electronic parts and devices as
well as industrial machinery. Moreover, Kyoto attracts attention from all over the world as
an international tourist destination distinguished by more than 1,200 years of history. Thus,
production and exports have been on an uptrend while steadily benefiting from the growth
in overseas economies, and demand from foreign visitors also has been firm on the back of
an increase in foreign tourists to Japan. In addition, business fixed investment has become
more active, as seen in investment intended for capacity expansion as well as research and
development in the manufacturing sector and that intended for extension of accommodation
facilities such as hotels in the nonmanufacturing sector. Employee income also has
increased moderately.
Reflecting such favorable economic conditions, labor shortage has been progressing in
Kyoto Prefecture, as is the case nationwide. In this situation, active labor participation by
women and seniors has been observed and labor-saving investment in various forms is
becoming more dynamic. For example, a wide range of firms irrespective of sector have
established sections specializing in promoting diversity and worked on creating various
working systems, such as shorter and flexible working hours. As a result, some have
expressed the opinion that such moves have led to an increase in female and senior workers.
In addition, many firms in the eating and drinking services as well as accommodations
sectors, which are underpinned by demand from foreign visitors, have been making up for
labor shortage by raising productivity, such as through introducing tablet devices and
making use of the Internet of Things (IoT). As I have explained today, such moves may
weaken upward pressure on wages and prices in the short term, but in the longer term, they
will raise the productivity of the economy as a whole, thereby strengthening its growth
potential. As this potential rises, firms' spending behavior and households' consumption are
likely to become more active, eventually contributing to pushing up prices. Such positive
developments that have been clearly observed in the prefecture are expected to support the
achievement of the 2 percent price stability target in a stable manner.
In closing, let me convey my best regards and express my sincere hope that you will
continue to make Kyoto even more attractive while uniting tradition and innovation for the
further development of the prefecture's economy.
Thank you very much for your attention.
Japan's Economy and Monetary Policy
Speech at a Meeting with Business Leaders in Kyoto
August 2, 2018
Masayoshi Amamiya
Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan
Chart 1
Japan's Economy
Length of Economic
Corporate Profits Unemployment Rate
Recovery Period
s.a., %
s.a., %
7 6
Rank Period Length
6
Ratio of current profits
February 5
1 73 months
to sales (all industries
2002February 2008
and enterprises)
5
4
months
2 December 201266
(as of May 2018)
4
3
November
3 1965July 1970 57 months
3
(Izanagi Boom )
2
December
2
4 1986February 1991 51 months
(Bubble Boom )
1
1
November
5 43 months
1993May 1997
0
0
CY
CY 86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07 10 13 16
Chart 2
Output Gap and Consumer Prices
Consumer Prices
Output Gap
y/y % chg.
%
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
-1
0
-2
-1
-3
-4
-2
-5
CPI (all items less fresh food)
-3
-6 CPI (all items less fresh food and energy)
-7 -4
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CY
Notes: 1. The output gap is based on BOJ staff estimations.
Notes: 2. The CPI figures are adjusted for changes in the consumption tax rate.
Sources: Bank of Japan; Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.
2
Chart 3
Why Is the Bank Aiming at 2 Percent Inflation?
Three Reasons Price Stability in Advanced Economies
Indicator
Country/
Definition
Numerical expression
Region
(y/y chg.)
Upward bias in the CPI
PCE deflator
United States Longer-run
(FRB) goal
2%
HICP
Euro area Quantitative
Below, but
(ECB) definition
Buffer for monetary policy
close to, 2%
United
CPI
Kingdom Target
2%
(BOE)
CPI
Japan Price stability
2 percent as a global standard
(BOJ) target
2%
Chart 4
Firms' Cautious Wage-Setting Stance
Labor Force Participants
Wage Increases
Seniors
Women
(aged 65 and over)
(aged 15-64)
change from CY 2000, mil. persons
y/y % chg.
change from CY 2000, mil. persons
4
2 16
Population
Population
Scheduled cash earnings
(full-time employees) 14
1
Labor force
Labor force
3
Hourly scheduled cash earnings
participants participants
12
(part-time employees)
0
2
10
-1
8
1
-2
6
-3
0
4
-4
2
-1
-5
0
-2 -6 -2
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CY 00 04 08 12 16 CY 00 04 08 12 16
Notes: 1. Q1 = March-May, Q2 = June-August, Q3 = September-November, Q4 = December-February in the wage graph. Wage figures from 2017/Q1 onward are based on existing
respondents (continuing observation) following the sample revision of the Monthly Labour Survey in January 2018.
Notes: 2. Figures for labor force participants and population for 2018 are January-May averages on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Sources: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare; Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.
4
Chart 5
Households' Tolerance of Price Rises
DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
-70
tolerate price rises
-75
-80
-85
-90
-95
CY
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Note: Comments on the rise in prices are chosen among three alternatives: "rather favorable," "difficult to say," and "rather unfavorable."
Source: Bank of Japan, Opinion Survey on the General Public's Views and Behavior.
Chart 6
Firms' Cautious Price-Setting Stance
Labor-Saving Investment in Sectors Facing Acute Labor Shortage
Software Investment (Tankan)
Employment Conditions DI (Tankan)
FY2005 = 100
reversed, DI ("excessive" - "insufficient"), % points
-70
300
"insufficient" All industries
-60
All industries
Construction
-50 250
Retailing
Construction
Accommodations,
Retailing
-40
eating & drinking
services
Accommodations, eating & drinking services
-30 200
-20
-10
150
0
10
100
20
30
50
CY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
FY
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Note: Figures for software investment for fiscal 2018 are based on plans in the June 2018 survey.
Source: Bank of Japan.
6
Chart 7
Intensifying Competition
Ratio to
Interview Responses by Firms
2018)Online-Shopping - The Bank's Regional Economic Report (Jul.
Total Expenditure
%
3.5
Since competitors have intensified their
pricecutting strategies, we may also cut sales prices
3.0
further in the future
(a supermarket [Sendai]).
2.5
Consumers have a deep-rooted cost-saving
2.0
mentality and we are losing customers to
lowprice retail businesses such as drugstores and
online retailers (a supermarket [Kyoto]).
1.5
1.0
We are feeling the threat of other types of
retail businesses that have intensified their
price-cutting strategies at the expense of
0.5
profits, and thus we have cut the sales prices
of several hundred items, especially
0.0
privatebrand products (a supermarket [Hiroshima]).
CY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Chart 8
Moves to Raise Sales Prices
Spread of Wage Increases to Prices Output Prices DI (Tankan)
y/y % chg. DI ("rise" - "fall"), % points
2.0 20
Eating out
10
1.5
Services related to
domestic duties
0
1.0
-10
-20
0.5
-30
Large enterprises
0.0
-40
Small enterprises
-50
-0.5
CY
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Notes: 1. The CPI figures are adjusted for changes in the consumption tax rate.
Notes: 2. There is a discontinuity in the data of the output prices DI in the December 2003 survey due to a change in the survey framework.
Sources: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; Bank of Japan.
8
Chart 9
Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices
(July 2018 Outlook Report)
the medians of the Policy Board members' forecasts, y/y % chg.
CPI
Real GDP
(all items less fresh food)
Fiscal 2018
+1.5 +1.1
Forecasts made in
+1.6 +1.3
April 2018
Fiscal 2019
+0.8 +1.5
Forecasts made in
+0.8 +1.8
April 2018
Fiscal 2020
+0.8 +1.6
Forecasts made in
+0.8 +1.8
April 2018
Chart 10
Yield Curve Control
%
1.4
Recent
1.2
Bottom of 10-year JGB yields (July 27, 2016)
1.0
0.8
Target level of the long-term interest rate:
around zero percent
0.6
Short-term policy interest rate:
minus 0.1 percent
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 15 20 30 40
residual maturity, year
Source: Bloomberg.
10
Chart 11
Strengthening the Framework for Continuous Powerful Monetary Easing
Taking more time than expected to achieve the price stability target of 2 percent.
Maintaining the output gap as long as possible within positive territory is appropriate.
Persistently Continuing with Powerful Monetary Easing
Forward guidance for policy rates
"The Bank intends to maintain the current extremely low levels of short- and long-term interest rates for an
extended period of time, taking into account uncertainties regarding economic activity and prices including
the effects of the consumption tax hike scheduled to take place in October 2019."
⇒
Strengthening the commitment to achieving the price stability target
Enhancing the sustainability of "Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with
Yield Curve Control"
Long-term interest rate: The Bank maintains the target level of around zero percent. While doing so,
the yields may move upward and downward to some extent mainly depending on
developments in economic activity and prices.
Purchases of ETFs: The Bank maintains the annual pace of increase in the amount outstanding of
about 6 trillion yen. While doing so, the Bank may increase or decrease
the amount of purchases depending on market conditions. etc.
Achieving the price stability target of 2 percent at the earliest possible time while
securing stability in economic and financial conditions.
11■