1ST ANNUAL GENAFRICA ASSET MANAGERS LIMITED CONFERENCE
Leisure Lodge, Diani
NAVIGATING THROUGH TURBULENT TIMES
Remarks by Dr. Patrick Njoroge
Governor, Central Bank of Kenya
December 2, 2016
As Prepared for Delivery
Good morning! I am indeed honored to speak before this distinguished forum.
I would like to express my thanks to the organizing committee of this conference for the
invitation to participate in this session, and to deliver the keynote address. Let me also
acknowledge the important role of the GenAfrica Asset Managers Limited in the economy
particularly with respect to pension fund management and property investment advisory.
Although your investment philosophy is to achieve investment returns without exposing
clients' assets to unnecessary
risk, we have seen heightened uncertainties in the domestic
and global economies which require closer monitoring.
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The theme of this conference Navigating through Turbulent Times resonates with the
challenges that most emerging and developing economies are going through as they seek
to deliver on their mandates of ensuring macroeconomic stability and promoting growth.
These economies, Kenya included, have become more integrated with the global
economy, and are therefore exposed to external shocks largely through the linkages in the
financial markets, foreign direct investment flows, as well as commodity prices.
Growth in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) region has been held back in 2016 by the weak
global economy, the decline in commodity prices, and uncertainty in the financial markets.
In particular, SSA growth is projected to decelerate to 1.4 percent in 2016 from 3.4
percent in 2015, and from an average of 5.3 percent in the period 2010-2014. This is the
slowest growth for the region in twenty years. The outlook for the global economy is
confounded by uncertainties around the impact of Brexit and political developments in the
U.S. Given these risks, and in line with the theme of this forum, I would like to provide
some highlights on the outlook for Kenya's economy, and to outline some of the measures
we are implementing to mitigate the risks.
Kenya's economy has remained strong, growing at an average of 5.6 percent during the
period 2011-2015, which was higher than the SSA average growth of 4.3 percent. The
growth averaged 6.1 percent in the first half of 2016 and is projected at 6.0 percent in
2016, up from 5.6 percent in 2015. This outlook is underpinned by continued public and
private sector investment, strong agriculture performance, increased private consumption,
and a stable macroeconomic environment.
Improved business conditions reflected in a stable macroeconomic environment, security,
and infrastructure development have created a conducive and predictable environment for
investment, and economic activity. According to the World Bank 2017 Doing Business
Report, Kenya climbed 16 ranks to position 92 from 108 in 2016 and is the World's third
most reformed country. These developments reflect the ongoing reform effort by the
Government to improve the business environment.
Prudent monetary policy has kept inflation within the government target range, and
maintained stability in the foreign exchange market. Despite the significant pressures on
food prices, inflation was 6.7 percent in November 2016 compared with 7.3 percent in
November 2015, and 6.5 percent in October 2016. Non-food non-fuel inflation remains
relatively stable. The CBK remains cognisant of the adverse effects of food and oil price
shocks on inflation.
Kenya's external position remains
resilient despite the weaker global growth prospects.
The current account deficit is expected to narrow to 5.5 percent of GDP in 2016 from 6.8
percent in 2015 largely reflecting a decline in the value of imports of petroleum products
and machinery and equipment. In addition, export earnings from tea, coffee, and
horticulture have stabilised, while diaspora remittances and receipts from tourism have
improved. These developments continue to support stability in the foreign exchange
market despite the uncertainty in the global financial markets following the U.S. elections,
and the potential for a resumption of tightening of U.S. monetary policy. The CBK foreign
exchange reserves, which stand at 4.8 months of import cover, together with the
Precautionary Arrangements with the IMF totalling USD 1.5 billion continue provide
buffers against short term shocks.
The continued achievement of the CBK's price stability objective has provided an
adequate policy space for the economy to withstand external shocks. In addition, the
floating exchange rate regime has allowed continued adjustment of the exchange rate to
shifts in the demand for and supply of foreign exchange, while ensuring that reserves are
only used to smoothen short term volatility in the exchange rate.
Nevertheless, risks to the economy remain largely with regard to the uncertainty
surrounding future trade relationships with the U.K. and E.U. following Brexit, as well as
uncertainty over the signing and subsequent ratification of the EU-EAC economic
partnership agreements (EPAs). Kenya has significant trade links with Europe, as our
main foreign exchange earners notably tea, horticulture and tourism exports are to the EU
region. The government has already intensified efforts in the EAC region to renew the
EPAs.
diversification in Kenya's export products and external markets is expected to
The
moderate any adverse effects of external shocks on exports. A significant share of Kenya's
exports, about 40 percent, is exported to Africa, and these economies are not dominantly
reliant on commodity exports. We are also closely monitoring the impact of the recent
Kenya's
elections in the U.S. on trade given that the U.S. accounts for about 7 percent of
total exports; largely through the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)
framework.
Before I conclude, I would like to reiterate that the CBK is strengthening the banking
sector to ensure greater transparency and stronger governance, and also to promote
effective business models and innovation. As you may be aware, the financial sector
continues to support the transformation of our economy, and to contribute to economic
growth. The CBK is closely monitoring the impact of the recent legislation to cap bank
interest rates on the economy, while implementing additional measures to lower the cost
of credit on a sustainable basis. These measures include promoting innovation in the
banking sector leveraging on ICT, and strengthening the Credit Reference Bureaus to
provide for a credit scoring framework.
Finally, allow me once again to applaud GenAfrica Asset
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Managers Limited for organizing this forum.
Thank you!