For release on delivery
10:00 a.m. EDT (9:00 a.m. CDT)
November 7, 2023
Using Economic Data to Understand the Economy
Remarks by
Christopher J. Waller
Member
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
at
"Beyond the Numbers,"
a conference hosted by the Research Division of the
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
St. Louis, Missouri
November 7, 2023
Thank you, Katrina, for inviting me here today.1 As I hope you all know, the
Federal Reserve uses monetary policy to achieve its dual mandate of maximum
employment and price stability. One of my key roles as a policymaker is to help
determine what stance of policy will move the economy closer to that reality. To do that,
I need to try to understand where the economy stands and where it is headed. And to do
that, I look at a variety of economic and financial data.
I have a team of advisers who help me compile and analyze data. But you don't
need your own team of economists to get a good idea of what's happening in the U.S.
economy. The staff here at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis has created an easy-to-
use interactive tool that brings economic data to your fingertips. FRED (Federal Reserve
Economic Data) allows the public to access, plot, and analyze thousands of economic
data series. I often use FRED myself when I want to look up current and historical data.
In fact, I thought for today's talk, I could use FRED to show some of the data
series I consult when thinking about the economy. I'll start with some slides on
economic activity and then move on to the labor market and inflation. I'll tell you how I
am interpreting these data, what they have meant for policy to date, and offer a few
caveats we should all keep in mind when using data. I will not be discussing my
expectations for future monetary policy.
• Slide 1. Real Gross Domestic Product
• Slide 2. Contributions to Real GDP
• Slide 3. Change in Payroll Employment
• Slide 4. Vacancy-to-Unemployment Ratio
- 2 -
• Slide 5. Labor Force Participation Rate
• Slide 6. Personal Consumption Expenditures Inflation
• Slide 7. Personal Consumption Expenditures Core Inflation
• Slide 8. Federal Funds Target Range
• Slide 9. 10-year Treasury Yield
• Slide 10. Treasury Yield Spread (10 Year to 2 Year)
Slide 11. Payroll Revisions
•
• Slide 12. Consumer Price Index Inflation Revisions
Much of what I have shared today comes from an economic outlook speech I gave
a few weeks back. If you would like to read the full remarks, you can look for those on
the Board's website.2 I hope you do. But even more so, I hope these slides today have
helped show that you and your students don't have to wait for a speech from a Fed
policymaker to get an update on the U.S. economy. You can use FRED to access and
analyze the data yourselves. I hope that reviewing these data series has been as fun for
you as it has been for me or that at least I've sparked some ideas for how you can use this
tool in the classroom. Thank you.
Using Economic Data to Understand
the Economy
Christopher J. Waller
Member
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Beyond the Numbers
at the
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 7, 2023
The views expressed here are my own and do not reflect those of the Board of Governors or
the Federal Open Market Committee.
1. Real Gross Domestic Product
Note: Dashed line of 2.1 percent is the average growth rate of real GDP between 2000:Q1 and 2019:Q4.
The shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research
(NBER): March 2001-November 2001, December 2007-June 2009, and February 2020-April 2020.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2023), "Real Gross Domestic Product and Average Real Gross
Domestic, Product," FRED Economic Data (accessed October 27, 2023),
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1b1M6; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
2. Contributions to Real GDP
2022-present
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2023), "Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic
Product: Personal Consumption Expenditures, Gross Private Domestic Investment, Net Exports of Goods and
Services, and Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment," FRED Economic Data (accessed
October 27, 2023), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1aj0j; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2023), "Real
Gross Domestic Product," FRED Economic Data (accessed October 27, 2023),
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1aj0r; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
3. Change in Payroll Employment
2021-present
Note: Dashed line of 183,000 is the average change in payroll employment between January 2010
and December 2019.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2023), "All Employees, Total Nonfarm and Average All
Employees, Total Nonfarm from January 2010 to December 2019," FRED Economic Data (accessed
November 1, 2023), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1b1N3; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
4. Vacancy-to-Unemployment Ratio
Note: The shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau
of Economic Research (NBER): March 2001-November 2001, December 2007-June 2009, and February
2020-April 2020.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2023), "Job Openings: Total Nonfarm/Unemployment
Level," FRED Economic Data (accessed October 27, 2023), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=18bAy;
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
5. Labor Force Participation Rate
Note: The shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau
of Economic Research (NBER): March 2001-November 2001, December 2007-June 2009, and February
2020-April 2020.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2023), "Labor Force Participation Rate," FRED
Economic Data (accessed October 27, 2023), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1aj8I; U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics.
Note: Dashed black line is the Federal Open Market Committee's longer-run inflation objective of 2
percent. The shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic
Research (NBER): March 2001-November 2001, December 2007-June 2009, and February 2020-April 2020.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2023), "Personal Consumption Expenditures: Chain-Type Price
Index and Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index)," FRED
Economic Data (accessed October 27, 2023), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1b1ts U.S. Bureau of Economic
Analysis.
Note: The shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of
Economic Research (NBER): March 2001-November 2001, December 2007-June 2009, and February 2020-
April 2020.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2023), "Personal Consumption Expenditures: Goods
(ChainType Price Index), Services (Chain-Type Price Index), and Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index),"
FRED Economic Data (accessed October 27, 2023), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1b1tB; U.S. Bureau of
Economic Analysis.
8. Federal Funds Target Range
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2023), "Federal Funds Target Range - Upper Limit and Lower
Limit," FRED Economic Data (accessed November 02, 2023), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=187To;
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
9. 10-year Treasury Yield
Wednesday,
November 1
Monday, July 3
4.77%
3.86%
Note: The shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic
Research (NBER): March 2001-November 2001, December 2007-June 2009, and February 2020-April 2020.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2023), "Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant
Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis," FRED Economic Data (accessed October 27, 2023),
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1aj76; U.S. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
10. Treasury Yield Spread (10 Year to 2 Year)
Note: The shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of
Economic Research (NBER): March 2001-November 2001, December 2007-June 2009, and February 2020-
April 2020.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2023), "Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year
Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis-Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant
Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis," FRED Economic Data (accessed October 27, 2023),
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=18dIL; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
11. Payroll Revisions
2021 Initial Report Current Estimate Revision
August 235 663 428
September 194 557 363
October 531 781 250
November 210 614 404
December 199 569 370
Total 1369 3184 1815
12. Consumer Price Index Inflation
Revisions
2022 Before Revision After revision Change
June
1.42 1.28 -0.14
July
-0.02 -0.04 -0.02
August
0.13 0.25 0.13
September
0.42 0.44 0.03
October
0.47 0.52 0.05
November
0.10 0.22 0.12
December
-0.08 0.14 0.22