"Recent developments in tackling the Greek
nonperforming loans problem"
Keynote speech
by
Professor John (Iannis) Mourmouras
Senior Deputy Governor
Bank of Greece
Former Deputy Finance Minister
at IMN's 2nd Annual Investors' Conference on Greek &
Cypriot NPLs
Athens, 8 February 2019
1. Introduction
Good morning, Ladies and Gentlemen,
It is my pleasure to deliver the keynote speech at the second Annual
Investors' Conference on Greek and Cypriot NPLs, a very welcome
initiative that draws the attention of all the relevant stakeholders on the
NPL issue, of great interest to the local regulator too, which justifies my
presence here in front of you. I would like to start by thanking the
organisers, the Information Management Network and Jade Friedensohn,
for the kind invitation, and all of you for being here so early in the
morning.
Because of the criticality and the multidimensional aspects of the issue
and a sense of urgency, some have called it the Achilles' heel of the
Greek banking system; others the elephant in the room. I personally call
it a problem, a problem that can be resolved and I see that the time has
come. Over the last decade, the European Union and its Member States
have worked hard to reduce risk in the banking sector. Indeed, the
European banks average CET1 ratios are 15%, the highest level since
2014, while according to the latest ECB's stress tests results published
last Monday, all banks improved capital basis with higher capital buffers
than in 2016. Despite that, according to the recent SSM risk map for
2019, NPLs continue to pose risks to economic growth and financial
stability with further efforts necessary to ensure that the NPL issue in the
euro area is adequately addressed, while the ongoing search for yield, due
to very low and negative interest rates, increases the potential for a
buildup of future NPLs
(Chart 1).
Chart 1. SSM risk map for 2019
As you can see from the chart above, NPLs rank higher than cybercrime
and IT disruptions, and are second only to geopolitical uncertainties both
in terms of risk impact and risk probability.
The average NPL ratio in the EU stands at 3.4% and this compares with
average NPL ratios of 1.3% and 1.5% in the United States and Japan,
respectively.
In what follows, I would like to highlight the European dimension to the
NPL issue including the current situation of NPL secondary markets
across the euro area, in other words, that NPLs is not only a Greek
problem, but it is also a concern to other South European countries,
including Cyprus, Italy, Portugal, etc. My focus will then be the recent
developments in tackling the Greek non-performing loans problem
including the two recent systemic proposals, one by us at the Bank and
one by the HFSF.
2. NPLs: The broader context across the European banking sector
a. Recent developments
NPL ratios continued to decline last year across the European Union,
confirming the overall trend of improvement over recent years. The latest
figures show that the gross NPL ratio for all EU banks further declined to
3.4% (Q3 2018), to the lowest level since 2014, indicating that the NPL
ratio is approaching pre-crisis levels again (Chart 2). The coverage ratio
has also further improved and has risen to 46% (Q3 2018), up 3
percentage points since 2014.
Chart 2. EU bank total non-performing loans
Source: EBA, Risk Dashboard, Data as of Q3 2018.
However, the situation continues to differ significantly between Member
States as 12 EU Member States have NPL ratios of below 3%, while
there are still some with considerably higher ratios - 9 Member States
have ratios above 5% (Chart 3). in Member States with relatively high
NPL ratios, there is encouraging and sustained progress in most cases
due to a combination of policy actions and the growth impact. For
instance, in Cyprus, NPLs have continued to fall since the end of 2015
with the NPL ratio around 34% and are expected to decline more sharply
this year. In Italy, where the NPL ratio is currently around 9.7%, the
securitisation scheme supported by state guarantees (known as GACS)
was introduced in 2016 and extended for another six months in
September 2018. Several other market infrastructure initiatives are also
helpful towards tackling NPLs. For example, in Portugal that has an NPL
ratio of 12.4%, initiatives targeted at promoting smooth coordination
among creditors (to accelerate credit restructuring, NPL sales, etc.) are a
welcome addition to the existing policy mix.
Chart 3. NPL ratios in EU Member States
Source: EBA, Risk Dashboard, Data as of Q3 2018.
In this context, last December, the European Council Presidency and the
European Parliament agreed on a new framework for banks to deal with
new NPLs and thus to reduce the risk of their accumulation in the future.
The framework provides for requirements to set aside sufficient own
resources when new loans become non-performing and creates
appropriate incentives to address NPLs at an early stage. In particular, the
new rules introduce a "prudential backstop", i.e. common minimum loss
coverage for the amount of money banks need to set aside to cover losses
caused by future loans that turn non-performing, which increases
gradually over a period of 9 years. The full coverage of 100% for NPLs
secured by movable and other CRR (Capital Requirements Regulation)
eligible collateral will have to be built up after 7 years, while for the
unsecured NPLs the maximum coverage requirement would apply fully
after 3 years.
b. Current situation of NPL secondary markets in Europe
Let me now turn to the current situation of NPL secondary markets in
Europe. These remain underdeveloped, given that:
1. Markets for NPLs tend to be characterised by comparatively small
trade volumes. Indeed, between 2014 and 2017, transaction volumes in
secondary markets for loans in the EU were estimated by industry
sources to reach between €100-150 billion per annum.
2.
The NPL market has been highly concentrated on the buy side with a
few large transactions involving a limited number of active investors. The
10 largest transactions during the period 2015-2016 accounted for one
third of the transaction volume, while the rest was spread over about 480
transactions. Moreover, almost 40% of the transaction deals was
accounted for by the biggest five buyers, while about 70% of the market
share in the EU is controlled by 20% of investors.
3.
Transactions have been strongly clustered in four countries: Spain,
Ireland, Italy and the United Kingdom. In the first three, NPL sales have
contributed substantially to reducing high NPL ratios. There have been
few transactions in other countries with high NPL ratios (Greece, Cyprus,
Italy, Portugal, Slovenia) and sizeable market activity in countries with
low NPL ratios (Germany, Netherlands).
More precisely, of the 103 banks that disclosed transactions, only 40 had
multiple transactions. The loan portfolios that banks sell include different
asset classes and according to market sources, some buyers are
specialised in specific asset classes. The chart below gives a snapshot of
market shares by asset class based from a sample of 365 NPL
transactions signed in 2015-2017 (Chart 4).
Chart 4. Loans and NPLs on bank balance sheets per asset class and
country (June 2018)
Source: EBA.
4.
There is lack of transparency of market prices and volumes with large
bid-ask spreads when counterparts enter negotiations. Industry sources
estimate that prices vary strongly depending on the type of debt and the
quality of the underlying collateral (Chart 5).
Chart 5. Average price on face value of NPL portfolio transactions
An optimal and sustainable solution that has the potential to address the
current sources of market failure in the secondary market for NPLs in
Europe, including asymmetry of information between sellers and buyers
and high transaction costs, is the establishment of a European
Unionwide NPL transaction platform where holders of NPLs - banks and
nonbank creditors - and interested investors can exchange information and
trade, increasing competition, harmonising information and data
availability. This could be turned into a permanent channel through
which future NPLs could be efficiently disposed of.
3. A glance at the Greek economy
Before analyzing Greek banks' NPL issue, allow me look into the recent
developments on the Greek economy.

For the first time in 10 years, economic activity returned with
solid growth at 1.5% in 2017. Indeed, this is the first time Greece has
achieved 6 consecutive quarters with positive GDP change since 2006.
GDP growth is mainly export-driven, as improved external
competitiveness combined with solid external demand has underpinned
export growth. GDP growth is estimated at 2.1% and around 2% in 2018
and this year respectively.

The unemployment rate declined further to 18.3% in the third
quarter of 2018, remaining on a downward path, the lowest level since
August 2011.

On the fiscal front, the 2018 general government primary surplus
target of 3.5% was outperformed by a strong margin (4%) and according
to the 2019 budget, it is projected to reach 3.6% of GDP.
Looking forward, there should be no complacency or slackening of
effort on behalf of the national authorities especially this year, a multiple
election year in Greece. The government must commit to the
implementation of growth-enhancing reforms and not lag behind its
post-bailout commitments, particularly in the public sector, including
administrative reforms and speeding up of judicial procedures. As I keep
saying in the last eight years, on every opportunity I get, the country
needs an investment shock. Reviving domestic and foreign investment is
crucial to supporting the country's economic recovery. This is why it is
important for the government to speed up the privatisation agenda, not
so much as a revenue exercise, but as a first-class opportunity to attract
FDI in key sectors of the economy, such as transport, energy, logistics
and tourism. All the above, will enhance the country's credibility in the
eyes of international capital markets and credit rating agencies, making
the investment grade within reach.
Evidence on reduced sovereign risk
Last week, the Hellenic Republic raised €2.5 billion issuing a 5-year
government bond at a yield of 3.6% and an annual fixed coupon for
investors of 3.45%. This was Greece's first attempt to tap the
international money markets after the country's exit from the third
bailout programme last August. The issue was four times oversubscribed
as offers, amounting to over €10 billion with the foreign investors'
participation exceeding 85%, with many real money investors and not
only hedge funds. As the Greek government yield curve has been rebuilt,
its slope has been steepened for the first time since 2015, implying
improved investor perceptions about the outlook of the Greek economy.
In short, Greece is already in the markets with the only exception of the
10-year benchmark new issue. Since the start of the year the trading
volume in the secondary securities market has been raised substantially
from €5 million to €20 million on a daily average and the repo
transaction volume has reached €22 billion from 0 three years ago.
As far as the benchmark is concerned, the 10-year GGB is currently
trading at a yield of around 3.9%, i.e. near the March 2006 - the
precrisis levels. Just to remind you that the 10-year GGB yield was 7.3% at
the beginning of 2017. In my view, it is only a matter of time for a new
10-year government bond issue. Apart from its obvious importance for
the Greek economy, it is also of direct interest to all of you, in terms of
the pricing of future NPL securitisation products, since their guarantees
are calculated on the basis of a basket of Greece's sovereign CDS
premium on the state guarantor.
4. Greek banking sector: Recent developments and their NPL issue
Turning now to Greek banking sector:

For the first time since 2010, and after three rounds of capital
injections in the last five years, amounting in total to €64 billion
cumulatively, all four systemic banks successfully concluded the 2018
stress test conducted by the ECB, without any need for additional capital
increases.

In this context, according to their latest announced financial
results for the third quarter of 2018, they remained in profitable territory
with their capital ratios remaining at comfortable levels near 16% on
average. However, the figures remain weak, as net interest income
continues to decrease.

Banks' dependence on the ELA emergency lifeline has been
terminated.

Another visible improvement in the financial sector was the
increase of the total deposits between end-June 2015 and January 2019
by €20 bn (or 13%) to €150 bn.

Greece's four systemic banks' covered bonds of 3 and 5-years
maturity have been upgraded to BBB-.

Last but not least, since last October capital controls on domestic
transactions have been fully lifted. They are still in place though for
money transfers abroad. Reminding ourselves that 2019 is a year of
multiple elections in Greece, it goes without saying that there are
downside risks by definition during electoral periods. I believe caution is
the word here. Having said that, I would argue that it wouldn't do any
harm if the authorities preannounce the end-date for the full lifting of
capital controls, say, by the end of this year, signaling that the country is
on the steady path towards fully restoring confidence.
Greek banks' NPLs: Where we stand now
However, the most important pending issue for the Greek banking
industry today remains the high stock of non-performing exposures, as
Greece remains the outlier for NPEs with a ratio of 46.7% or €84.7
billion, the highest level across both the European Union and the
eurozone.
Compared to March 2016, when the Greek banks' stock of NPEs reached
its peak, there is significant reduction of around 21% mainly due to
write-offs and loan sales, which reached the amount of €17 billion.
More analytically, at end-September 2018, the NPE ratio was 44.7% for
residential (amounting to €27.5 billion), 53% for consumer (€8.8 billion)
and 46.9% (€48.2 billion) for the business portfolio (Chart 6). A major
improvement has been made only on the consumer loans portfolio on the
back of the latest sales. On the other hand, exceptionally high remain the
NPE ratios in SMEs and SBPs (60.9% and 68.6% respectively).
Chart 6. Greek banks NPE ratio per asset class (%) as of end
September 2018
Source: Bank of Greece.
On the other hand, the NPE provisions coverage ratio has dropped at
47% from 49% previously (Chart 7).
Chart 7. Greek banks total coverage as of Q3 2018
Source: Bank of Greece.
Examining the reasons behind this substantial surge in NPEs in Greece,
this can be attributed to three factors:
a. First of all, the severity of recession that wiped out 25% of GDP in
just five years and the subsequent rise in unemployment from around 8%
in 2008 to 28% in 2013.
b. Bad bank practices. Imprudent lending with high leverage and dubious
practices of lending on undeclared income, and high LTV ratios.
c. Overborrowing by consumers and businesses following the
introduction of the euro currency due to the sharp drop in interest rates.
Greek banks have already submitted revised operational targets for NPLs
at ratios around or lower than 20% of total non-performing exposures by
the end of 2021. Loan sales, collections, collateral liquidation and
potential asset protection schemes are anticipated to contribute more
extensively towards NPE reduction.
In this context, Bank of Greece (BoG) has designed a toolkit for the
Greek NPLs including the following:
• Setup of a secondary market for NPLs. Seventeen AMCs have already
received licenses, while another 11 companies are in the queue for a
license, either by submitting a file or by preparing it.
• Out-of-court settlements law ffocused on standardized procedures for
SMEs and electronic auctions.
• The Bank of Greece issued a Code of Conduct for interaction of banks
with borrowers in arrears.
However, all banks have net NPE inflows for the third quarter of 2018, of
around €1.8 billion mostly coming from re-defaults (Chart 8). Also, the
quarterly cure rate remains near 1.8% and the default rate is 2.1%, thus
further demonstrating the negative performance already observed in the
first two quarters of 2018.
Chart 8. Flow of NPEs in Q3 2018 at system level
ALL BANKS NPEs Build Up
100.000
1.838 (1.594) 389 0 (459) (329)
(3.145)
(1.041)
105
90.000
80.000
70.000
60.000
50.000
40.000
30.000
20.000
10.000
88.955 84.720
0
Source: Bank of Greece.
Hence, despite the genuine effort on the part of Greek commercial banks,
more drastic solutions are needed in the foreseeable future with a
handson approach. The speed up of efforts by both Greek banks and authorities
is more than essential for a rapid convergence of the domestic NPL ratio
to the European average.
Looking at the various strategies put forward for the effective resolution
of the Greek NPL issue, from my point of view, securitisation schemes
are probably the silver bullet for the Greek NPL problem. It's an
attractive, market-friendly idea because it converts bad quality assets to
marketable securities, which could be of interest to a larger set of buyers,
including foreign institutional buyers. The advantage of securitization is
that there is significant diversification of risk away from a single credit
name, and with the issue of tranches, investors can choose the
riskreward combination that best reflects their preferences. Securitisation
also generally achieves a lower average cost of funding and, if guarantees
are provided to the securitised assets, can result in higher NPL prices
than direct sales.
Recently, two proposals are under discussion in order to address the issue
of NPLs, one by the Bank of Greece and the other by the HFSF, which
have both as a common ground, the ideas of securitisation and a systemic
approach to the problem. They could be seen as complements, rather than
substitutes. More analytically:
The Bank of Greece's proposal - Main characteristics
The proposed scheme envisages the transfer of a significant part of non
performing exposures (NPEs) worth of around €40 billion along with
part of the deferred tax credits (DTCs) worth of around €8 billion, which
are booked on bank balance sheets, to a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV).
Subsequently, legislation will be introduced enabling to turn the
transferred deferred tax credit into an irrevocable claim of the SPV on
the Greek State with a predetermined repayment schedule. To finance
the transfer, the SPV will proceed with a securitisation issue, comprising
three classes of notes (senior, mezzanine, and junior). It is anticipated
that private investors will absorb part of the upper class of securities
(senior) and the vast majority of the intermediate part (mezzanine). The
scheme will be voluntary and will be managed exclusively by private
investors (servicing companies for loans and credits) and apparently
there will be an asset class separation for each transaction and
management operation (business, housing, consumer, etc.).
Turning now to the HFSF's proposal: main characteristics
It is based on the Italian solution, the so-called GACS scheme,
introduced in the beginning of 2016, which was conceived to help the
country's banks offload their bad loans. At the heart of the GACS
programme is a state guarantee that protects buyers of the safest - or
most senior - tranche in the securitisation. The guarantee will be
available only after a) the senior tranche gets a certain rating by rating
agencies (possibly in the area of BB) and b) at least (50% +) of the
junior tranche is sold to private investors. The scheme will be voluntary
again. Each participating bank will sell selected, relatively homogeneous
portfolios of NPLs to the SPV, which will issue the asset-backed
security notes.
After all, guarantee certificates are not something new in Greece, but
have been used extensively by the banking sector since 2012 for central
banking liquidity provision purposes (e.g. MROs and ELA), the
socalled GGGBBs, which amounted to around €30 billion. These
guarantee certificates can be considered as a sort of credit enhancement
device with the following advantages: they do not put any capital
pressure upon banks, they do not mix complicated tax, legal and
regulatory issues.
With all the above firepower initiatives put in place, plus the existing
toolkit of liquidation, restructuring and outright sales, the new ambitious
target lower than 20% NPE ratio for Greek banks within the next three
years is within reach.
Epilogue
Ladies and Gentlemen,
In closing, I would say the following. Being a macroeconomist by
training, I can see a macro dimension in a drastic solution of the NPEs
problem: to me, this is a unique opportunity,
•
Not only for restructuring business bad debt, but also rebalancing
the Greek economy towards export-oriented sectors, while
contributing to long-term growth.
•
For reducing financial risks of the Greek banking sector, restoring
their profitability and improving their internal capital generation
capacity, and
•
Increasing loan supply to healthy and productive enterprises and
enabling banks to focus on the new technological challenges ahead,
including fintech, blockchain and the digital transformation of
payment systems.
Thank you very much for your attention. I wish you all a productive
conference and networking!