Shaktikanta Das: Inaugural address - 17th Statistics Day Conference
Inaugural address by Mr Shaktikanta Das, Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, at
the 17th Statistics Day Conference , Mumbai, 30 June 2023.
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I am happy to participate in the 17th annual 'Statistics Day Conference' of the Reserve
Bank, and also to launch the 'Centralised Information Management System' or CIMS,
which is our next generation data warehouse. Over two decades ago, the Reserve
Bank was among the pioneer central banks to set up its data warehouse. Considering
the developments during the interregnum, it is natural that we migrate to a new platform
with a more enriched orientation.
Celebration of the National Statistics Day, which marks the birth anniversary of
Professor Prasanta Chandra Mahalanobis, provides an opportunity for sensitising the
general public, especially the younger minds, about the discipline of statistics, which
provides scientific basis for taking informed decisions across diverse domains. Prof.
Mahalanobis was instrumental in institutionalising statistics in India, both as an
academic discipline and as a policy devising tool. He always approached the subject as
an applied science, capable of addressing real life questions. We are reminded of
practical application of statistics, such as, his analysis of half a century data on floods,
which influenced the construction of the Hirakud dam, and the second Five-year Plan
model which focussed on rapid industrialisation of the Indian economy. All these
demonstrated how statistics can address complex problems and drive progress. As we
pay our tribute to Prof. Mahalanobis on his birth anniversary, we continue to draw
inspiration from the sagacious endeavours of this great visionary.
I would also like to take this opportunity to congratulate Dr. C.R. Rao, the living legend
in statistics and a close associate of Prof. Mahalanobis, who has been selected for the
prestigious and long overdue International Prize in Statistics in 2023. Incidentally, we
have two of his distinguished students, Professor S.R.S. Varadhan and Professor
Rajeeva Karandikar amidst us today. They will be talking about interesting areas in
statistical theory and applications, later during the day.
Evidence and analysis are core inputs in policy formulation. Of late, macroeconomic
policy making and monitoring processes have become more data intensive, with
considerable reliance being placed on detailed study of developments, interlinkages
among factors, identification of patterns, forecasts of possible path and scenario
analysis - all aided by the discipline of statistics. A prerequisite of such analysis is the
availability of timely and credible data with the three Cs of data quality, i.e.,
completeness, correctness and consistency.
Unlike the economic variables that are directly compiled from transaction systems,
which are timely and robust, certain core macroeconomic aggregates - such as, gross
domestic product (GDP) growth and price inflation, where compilation process is
dependent on multiple channels - are available with a time lag globally. Also, their early
estimates, which are indeed very useful, are compiled with limited set of inputs and
partial data and are prone to multiple and sometimes significant revisions. Policymakers
who use them as inputs, however, do not have the luxury of revising decisions in
retrospect . Monetary policymakers supplement official estimates with information on
auxiliary variables to have firmer assessment and minimise policy errors emanating
from data revision. Statistical information is also used by businesses and households in
making assessment of the economic situation and firming up their near-term
expectations.
To our advantage, technological developments have kept pace with the rising
dimensions and depth of economic activities to support their detailed monitoring.
Advances in remote sensing, automation, digitisation, information management
ecosystem, text mining, natural language processing, artificial intelligence and
nowcasting provide us with quick and comprehensive information on activities. Their
optimal utilisation has supported and can further refine compilation of macroeconomic
aggregates and increase their efficacy in navigating through uncertainties.
The Reserve Bank uses statistical methods in almost all its core functions and is both a
compiler and a user of macro-financial statistics as well as other economic data
collected through regular surveys. The Reserve Bank follows latest global prescriptions
and best practices, and pursues standardisation across domains to generate
consistent, comparable and harmonised statistics. We treat data as 'public good' and
are disseminating increasingly more data in public domain for use by analysts,
researchers and general public. Our preference is for general dissemination over
meeting individual requirements.
The Reserve Bank established its first enterprise-wide data warehouse - the Central
Database Management System (CDBMS) - which was accessible to its internal users
since 2002. A large part of this data system was placed in the public domain as the
'Database on Indian Economy (DBIE)' portal in November 2004. Over the years, DBIE
has evolved from a simple data repository to an information processing and
management system, which has become the Reserve Bank's data dissemination
platform. The DBIE remains very popular among domestic and international
researchers, analysts, and general public, especially students. It received over 2.5 lakh
hits in May 2023.
The Reserve Bank's Regulations Review Authority 2.0 (RRA 2.0) has recently made
several recommendations on streamlining reporting mechanism and reduction in
regulatory compliance burden. Many of these recommendations have already been
implemented and others are in various stages of implementation. A major
recommendation on system-based submission of the remaining email-based reporting
will be implemented through the Centralised Information Management System (CIMS)
in the coming months.
Our investment in technology for information management, periodic reviews, continuous
engagement with reporting entities and technological upgradation at their end, have
paid rich dividends in terms of improving coverage, quality, and timeliness of data.
During the COVID-19 lockdown period, our reporting system ensured business
continuity: the flow of validated information was seamless; the 'work from home (WFH)'
environment was actively supported; and the public dissemination of information went
uninterrupted.
With today's launch of CIMS, we embark on a major change in our information
management framework for handling the massive data flow, aggregation, analysis,
public dissemination and data governance. This system uses state-of-the-art
technology to manage Big data and will serve as a platform for power users to carry out
data mining, text mining, visual analytics and advanced statistical analysis connecting
data from multiple domains, such as, financial, external, fiscal, corporate and real
sectors as well as prices. In short to medium term, it would lead to a paradigm shift in
the Reserve Bank's economic analysis as well as supervision, monitoring and
enforcement across multiple domains.
The new system is starting with reporting by scheduled commercial banks and will be
gradually extended to urban cooperative banks (UCBs) and non-banking financial
companies (NBFCs). Incidentally, with the CIMS going live, the first weekly statistical
supplement (WSS), which is the Reserve Bank's weekly data release on its own
operations and on developments in banking and financial markets, was compiled and
processed in the CIMS for the week ended June 23, 2023. It will disseminate more data
for public use and will also support on-line statistical analysis by external users at their
end. Regulated entities will also have access to their past data and their assessment on
quality parameters in the new system.
Any transition in system with multiple dimensions involving large number of entities is
prone to teething trouble and therefore, our teams will support the reporting entities for
smooth transition, wherever necessary. Several new features will also be augmented in
the coming months.
This conference is being organised against the backdrop of two international events
with focus on statistics; one, the principle of data for development is an integral part of
the work stream under India's on-going presidency of G20; and second, the upcoming
membership of India in the United Nations Statistical Commission (UNSC) after a gap
of two decades. I note that results of four research papers covering various aspects of
G20 economies will also be presented today.
Let me now conclude with the words of Prof. Mahalanobis: "We shall naturally devote
closer attention to the collection and analysis of data relating to India, but we shall try to
2
study all Indian questions in relation to world problems" . Drawing inspiration from
these words, let me also give a message to our statisticians in the Reserve Bank: as
you look for a wider canvas in your profession, I urge all of you to abide by the spirit of
these words of Prof. Mahalanobis.
I wish all success to today's deliberations, which I am sure, will ignite our teams,
particularly the younger officers, to strive for professional excellence in their
commitment to serve the nation.
Thank you.
1
Athanasios Orphanides (2001). "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data",
The American Economic Review, Vol. 91, No. 4 (Sep., 2001), pp. 964-985
Editorial of the first issue of Sankhya: The Indian Journal of Statistics (1933)