Ms. Rivlin reports on the positive perfomance of the US economy and the
Testimony of the Vice Chairman of the Board of
policies needed to sustain growth in the future
Governors of the US Federal Reserve System, Ms. Alice M. Rivlin, before the Committee on
Banking and Financial Services of the US House of Representatives on 23/7/97.
I would like to begin by expressing my appreciation to the Committee for holding this
hearing to solicit a wide range of views on appropriate monetary policy at this extremely favorable
moment in our economic history. All too often congressional hearings are called when something bad
is happening. In a deteriorating situation, Congress finds it necessary to survey the damage, assess
responsibility and call for better policies in the future.
At the moment, however, the economy as a whole is functioning amazingly well.
Employment is high and rising, unemployment is low, incomes are increasing, profits are high, the
Federal budget deficit is plummeting, state and local finances are increasingly strong, and inflation is
benign. The overriding economic objective -- shared by all participants in the economy -- is to keep
the good news flowing. We all want the economy to grow at its highest sustainable rate, to keep
unemployment and inflation low, and above all, to avoid recession as long as possible.
Thoughtful people, at the Federal Reserve and elsewhere, have somewhat different
views about why the economy is doing so well and how best to keep it going. Your invitation to
share those views is timely, constructive and welcome.
I would like briefly to discuss three questions:
1. Why is the economy performing so well -- and, in particular, why do we have
so little inflation with such low unemployment?
2. Why is it so important, especially right now, to keep the economy growing at
its highest sustainable rate and to avoid recession?
3. What policies -- monetary and other economic policies -- are most likely to
keep economic performance high and sustained?
Why is the economy doing so well?
Most economists are frankly surprised that the economy has been able to grow fast
enough to push unemployment rates below 5 percent without generating accelerating inflation. Until
recently, most students of the economy thought that unemployment rates below 5.5 - 6.0 percent
(estimates differed) for an appreciable period would lead to rising labor costs that would be passed on
in higher prices and start a self-perpetuating wage-price spiral that would be hard to reverse. True,
unemployment had been lower in the 1960s while inflation remained low, but the structure of the
economy and the characteristics of the labor force subsequently changed in ways that seemed to make
the economy more inflation-prone for given levels of unemployment. The experience of the period
since about 1970 appeared to confirm that inflationary pressure emerged at unemployment rates
appreciably higher than those of the 1960s.
Five years ago, most economists would have thought the Federal Reserve
irresponsible and derelict in its duty if it had not used monetary policy to slow an economy operating
at such a high level that unemployment remained under 5.5 percent for more than a short time. The
inflation might not appear immediately, but it was thought to be inevitable, and allowing it to get up a
head of steam before acting was taking a high risk of having to react more strongly, perhaps strongly
enough to bring on a recession.
Nevertheless, the unemployment rate has been below 5.5 percent for over a year and
below 5.0 percent in 1997 while inflation has shown no signs of picking up -- indeed, producer prices
have actually been falling. The Federal Reserve, except for a quarter point tightening of the federal
funds rate in March (after months of inaction), has left the monetary levers alone. Is the Federal
Reserve ignoring risks of future inflation?
The answer depends on whether the coexistence of higher growth and lower
unemployment with benign inflation is explained by a fundamental improvement in the structure of
the economy making it less inflation-prone, or by temporary factors that might return to "normal" and
kick-off an inflationary wage-price spiral, or by some combination of the two. The honest answer is:
We don't know yet.
One surprise has been that such tight labor markets have not resulted in more rapid
increases in wages and other labor compensation. Part of the explanation, as Chairman Greenspan
noted in his testimony on July 22, may lie in less aggressive behavior on the part of workers.
Workers may be more reluctant than previously to bargain for higher compensation or to take drastic
action, such as striking or quitting to look for a better job. They may be reluctant because they are
insecure in the face of rapidly changing technology, for which they fear they may not have the right
skills, because they have recent memories of company "downsizing," or because they are less likely
than in previous tight labor markets to be members of a union. These explanations of less aggressive
worker behavior are plausible, but likely to be temporary. Workers are not likely to get more insecure
as low unemployment continues, and union strength is unlikely to ebb further.
Part of the explanation of moderate compensation increases may also lie in more
aggressive employer resistance to labor cost increases than in previous cycles. Business owners and
managers appear to believe strongly that they are operating in such a competitive environment
-whether domestic or international -- that they cannot pass cost increases on to their customers in
higher prices because they would lose those customers to competitors overseas or down the street.
Low import prices resulting from growing international competition and the strong dollar reinforce
this perception. Domestic markets have also become more fiercely competitive as the result of
deregulation, lower transportation and communication costs, and more competitive business attitudes.
These competitive forces, well known to workers, may give employers a plausible reason -- or at
least an excuse -- for strong resistance to wage and benefit demands.
The subdued inflation rate itself, moreover, has dampened inflationary expectations.
These lower expectations contribute both to diminished compensation demands of workers and stiffer
employer resistance to those demands. An important contribution to lower total compensation costs
has also come from the slowdown in the rise of health benefit costs associated with the shift to
managed care and the general reduction in the rate of health care inflation. It is not yet clear how
much of this slowdown is temporary.
The other surprise is that prices have shown no reaction to the moderate compensation
increases that have occurred. Increased foreign and domestic competitiveness is certainly part of the
answer, but the remarkable fact is that this competition has not generally eroded profit margins.
Persistent high profits suggest that, on the average, employers have been able to increase productivity
enough to absorb larger compensation increases without comparable price increases. Whether they
will be able to continue to do so is the crucial unanswered question facing monetary policy makers at
the moment. Measured productivity has grown slowly for more than two decades and did not
accelerate in this expansion as economists hoped it would. Nevertheless, output per hour seems to
have picked up a little recently, which is surprising late in an expansion when productivity increase
normally slows. If productivity growth were on the verge of sustained acceleration, a possibility
discussed in Chairman Greenspan's testimony, it would greatly increase the chances of higher
sustained growth without accelerating inflation. There are reasons to be optimistic, but only time will
tell if the optimists are right.
Why is sustained growth so important now?
It is always desirable to live in an economy that is growing at a healthy rate. The
general standard of living rises and average people are normally better off. Not only do private
resources grow, giving consumers more and better choices, but public resources also grow, making it
easier to solve public problems and improve national and community infrastructure. Healthy growth
has to be sustainable, not bought at the price of environmental degradation or inflationary overheating
that turns a boom into a bust.
Nevertheless, there are at least three reasons why it seems especially important for the
United States in the next few years to do everything possible to keep the economy growing at a
healthy sustainable rate and avoid recession.
Welfare reform
Recent legislation requires extremely ambitious state and Federal efforts to reduce
dependency and channel large portions of the present and future welfare population into
selfsupporting jobs. For these efforts to be even moderately successful will require effective skill training
and job placement, adequate child care and, above all, low unemployment rates and plentiful entry
level jobs. If economic expansion continues and labor markets remain tight, there is a good chance
that many families who would otherwise have depended on welfare can acquire the job skills and
experience that can enable them to live more independent and satisfying lives. If the economy slides
into recession before welfare recipients have time to establish new skills, work patterns and eligibility
for unemployment benefits, welfare reform is almost certain to be a failure, if not an outright disaster.
Community development
Partnerships for community development are beginning to create new hope for some
devastated areas of big cities, smaller towns and rural areas. Partners include business and
community groups, financial institutions and governments. With continued economic growth and low
unemployment, these efforts could transform many blighted areas into viable communities with
decent housing and an economic base. Recession, especially a deep one, would dry up public and
private resources and greatly reduce the chances of successful community development.
Preparing for more older people
Perhaps the biggest challenge to the U.S. economy (indeed to all industrial
economies) over the next couple of decades is the prospective rise in the ratio of elderly to working
age people. Barring a huge increase in working age immigrants or dramatic increases in the length of
working life, the number of retirees will rise much faster than the working population beginning early
in the next century. No matter what combination of public and private pensions are used to sort out
the claims of retirees to a share of the nation's output, the only way to guarantee a rising standard of
living for both retirees and workers is to greatly increase the future productivity of that workforce. A
high growth economy over the next decade could generate enough saving and investment to make
that increased future workforce productivity feasible. Slower growth and repeated recessions could
make the burden of an aging population far heavier and policy choices more contentious.
What policies are needed?
These three challenges to the American economy simply reinforce the need to keep
the economy on the highest sustainable growth track attainable and to keep recessions as shallow and
infrequent as possible. The biggest problem for monetary policy at the moment is that no one knows
what growth rate is sustainable. It may be true that the structure of the economy has changed in ways
that make a higher growth rate sustainable without inflation than we thought possible a few years ago
-- or it may not be true. The question turns on whether productivity growth has shifted up out of the
doldrums of the last couple of decades. It's possible that it has, but by no means certain.
This leaves monetary policymakers with the difficult job of watching all the signs,
weighing the risks and making a new judgment call every few weeks. At the moment, there seems to
be little risk of the economy slowing down too much in the near term and sliding into recession.
Growth has already slowed from its clearly unsustainable pace in the first quarter, but all the current
signs point to continued economic expansion for the rest of this year and into the next. The risks
seem higher on the other side -- that many of the factors holding down inflationary pressures will
prove temporary, that the rebound of productivity necessary for higher sustainable growth will not
occur or not prove robust and durable. The Federal Open Market Committee has to weigh the risk of
slowing the economy unnecessarily against the risk of waiting too long and having to put the brakes
on harder later. Waiting longer may increase the possibility of overheating followed by recession. It's
a tough call. I can't promise we will make the right decisions, but I can promise we will try.
It is important not to overestimate the role of monetary policy and the Federal
Reserve. Monetary policy can help keep the economy from falling off the sustainable growth track in
either direction -- either by overheating and generating enough inflation to unbalance the economy
and threaten growth or by chugging along too slowly with excessive unemployment. But monetary
policy cannot do much to determine how high the sustainable growth rate is. How fast the economy
can grow is determined by how rapidly the employed labor force is increasing and how fast the
productivity of that workforce is growing. There are only two ways to get more output: either more
people work or working people produce more (or both).
In the 1960s and 1970s, the American workforce was growing rapidly as the large
baby boom generation reached working age and women, especially mothers, moved into the
workforce in much larger proportions than previously. But those two trends have run their course.
The labor force is likely to grow slowly over the next few years, about 1 percent per year. The main
hope for increasing labor force growth, besides encouraging more immigration, is that continued tight
labor markets plus increased flexibility in employment hours will gradually begin to reverse the
trends to early retirement that has reduced labor force participation among older people. Continued
employment opportunities combined with well-designed training programs, especially in computer
related skills, could also attract into the labor force people who are not actively looking for work
because they don't think they have the skills to get a "good" job -- principally older workers and
young people who have dropped out of school.
Indeed, the shortage of workers with modern technical skills may be the biggest
problem facing the American economy at the moment, as well as its biggest opportunity. As long as
labor markets stay tight, investment in skill training is likely to pay off handsomely both for
individuals and for companies that can retain the trained workers long enough to benefit from their
increased productivity. Public investment in training for workers with low skills -- often unsuccessful
when jobs are scarce -- also stands a far better chance in tight labor markets of moving workers into
jobs in which they can gain increasing skills, experience and higher wages. Continued low
unemployment rates, plus public and private investment in skill training are essential, not only for
successful welfare reform, but also for modernizing the skills of the portion of the workforce whose
real incomes and opportunities have declined both relatively and absolutely in the last couple of
decades.
The other key to productivity increase, of course, is continued investment, both public
and private, in research and development and the technology and infrastructure needed for continuous
modernization of the economy. Stable low inflation tends to foster long-term planning and investment
by businesses and households. A high growth economy should generate more of the saving needed to
finance the investment. Reducing the public dissaving inherent in running a deficit in the Federal
budget also adds to national saving. Near term reform of social security and Medicare in ways that
add to national saving, public and private, could make a significant contribution to future productivity
increase and hence to raising the future rate of sustainable economic growth.
In summary, the objective of economic policy -- monetary policy included -- is to
keep the economy on the highest sustainable growth path. No one knows exactly what that rate is
right now, or what it can be in the future, but a combination of policies, intelligently pursued, can
raise it as far as possible. These policies include:
wise monetary policy that helps the economy expand, and keeps labor markets tight,
without incurring excessive risk of accelerating inflation;
investment in skills by individuals, firms and the public and non-profit sectors;
increased saving (public and private) invested in research, technology and
infrastructure.
The Federal Reserve will do its part, in the face of huge uncertainties, to steer an
appropriate monetary policy. Fiscal and other policies, both public and private, are needed to take full
advantage of the opportunity we have today to keep the American economy operating at a high level
in the future.