M a y 2 9 , 2 0 1 9
Bank of Japan
Opening Remarks at the 2019 Conference
BOJ-IMES
Hosted by the Institute for Monetary and
Economic Studies, Bank of Japan
I. Introduction
Good morning. I am honored to welcome such distinguished guests from around the
globe to the 25th BOJ-IMES Conference. On behalf of the conference organizers, I
thank all the guests in this room.
This year's conference is titled "Central Bank Design under a
Continued Low Inflation
Environment."
and Interest Rate The current theoretical framework for monetary policy
was developed before the Global Financial Crisis. At that time, inflation and interest
- -
rates in most advanced economies with Japan being the notable exception were high
enough to make conventional monetary policy effective. To stimulate the economy,
central banks had sufficient safety margins to reduce short-term nominal interest rates.
After the Global Financial Crisis, however, this situation changed significantly. Both
inflation and nominal interest rates have remained far below their pre-crisis levels for
more than a decade.
In my opening remarks, I will briefly review the policy agenda for central banks at the
moment under a continued low inflation and interest rate environment.
II. Policy Agenda under a Continued Low Inflation and Interest Rate
Environment
This year's conference focuses on four topics: the monetary policy framework,
monetary policy instruments, the relationship between price stability and financial
stability, and spillovers to emerging and developing economies.
A. Monetary Policy Framework
Regarding the monetary policy framework, textbook New Keynesian models assume
that long-term inflation expectations are anchored around the inflation target and the
central bank sets the policy rate mechanically referring to the natural rate of interest.
When these assumptions hold, all that the central bank needs to do to stimulate the
economy is to keep real interest rates below the natural rate of interest. However, this
conventional policy framework currently faces two major challenges.
The first challenge concerns the question to what extent policy makers should rely on
the natural rate as a benchmark for monetary policy conduct. This problem is partly
associated with the difficulty of measuring the natural rate of interest.1 Of course, this
problem can be overcome to some extent by looking at common trends in a range of
estimates of the natural interest rate. In fact, various recent estimates of the natural rate
of interest suggest that the current level appears to be much lower than before, giving
rise to concerns about a secular decline in the natural rate of interest.
The other major challenge is related to the stability of long-term inflation expectations
under "missing inflation." In fact, a good number of advanced economies have
experienced very sluggish price developments in spite of significant improvements in
economic activity. This raises concerns over the credibility of inflation targets, since
central banks' track record in hitting their target provides the foundation for the
credibility of such targets. Japan's experience shows that it is difficult to re-anchor
long-term inflation expectations from inflation below the target level. That suggests the
importance of maintaining well-anchored inflation expectations. At the same time, if
missing inflation comes from structural factors such as globalization and digitalization,
central banks should continue examining how best to manage inflation expectations,
while securing stability in economic and financial conditions, within the flexible
inflation targeting framework.
B. Monetary Policy Instruments
Regarding the monetary policy instruments, under normal circumstances, central banks
pursue their mandate by adjusting short-term nominal interest rates. However, following
-
the Global Financial Crisis, central banks have been forced to find alternatives policy
instruments that are often labeled as unconventional such as forward guidance and the
-
active use of the size and composition of their balance sheet to overcome the effective
lower bound on nominal interest rates.
The recent experience with regard to unconventional policy shows that such new tools
are effective to counter massive adverse shocks even after hitting the effective lower
bound. At the same time, our understanding of unconventional monetary policy is
limited. In fact, while policy makers have developed a wide range of unconventional
policy tools, their effectiveness and transmission mechanisms may differ depending on
financial conditions and economic structure. It is also important to explore how central
banks should use those unconventional policy tools in the future. In that regard, an
interesting question is: will those unconventional policy tools become conventional
policy tools in normal times?
C. The Relationship between Price Stability and Financial Stability
Regarding the relationship between price stability and financial stability, it is
increasingly recognized that the prolonged low interest rate environment raises two
major issues.
The first issue is that continued low interest rates can change the risk-taking behavior of
financial institutions and affect financial stability. Along this line, two types of risks
have been pointed out. The first is that low interest rates lead banks to take excessive
a "reversal
risks, and the second is that any further cuts in policy interest rate beyond
interest rate"
discourage risk-taking by banks. While empirical studies on this issue
have been accumulating, they are not conclusive about the nature of risks including their
probability distribution.2
The second issue is how to implement policy instruments for safeguarding financial
stability. To address this issue, two different approaches are explored. One approach
proposes a division of labor in the policy toolkit based on the Tinbergen rule: that is,
monetary policy instruments are assigned to the pursuit of price stability, while
macroprudential policy instruments are assigned to the achievement of financial
stability.3 The other approach is to "lean against the wind," that is, monetary policy
instruments are implemented not just to achieve the price stability goal but also give due
consideration to financial stability goals, under the premise that monetary policy
influences broad areas of financial activities.4 It should be noted that, however, a wide
range of people including those supporting the first approach recognize that no
macroprudential policy toolkit is perfect, and that a key part of the second approach is to
stave off a catastrophic financial disruption rather than to moderate financial cycles in
an orderly manner. In that regard, the two approaches should not be regarded as
completely different ones.
D. Spillovers to Emerging and Developing Economies
Regarding the spillovers, clearly, one of the issues on the policy agenda relating to
prolonged low inflation and interest rates is challenges for emerging and developing
economies. The reason is that such an environment in advanced economies could
amplify capital flows into emerging and developing economies where inflation and
interest rates tend to be higher. Although these capital inflows help boost domestic
economic activity, they also carry the risk of economic disruptions such as a sudden
outflow of capital or losses by borrowers due to exchange rate fluctuations. Recently,
there has been a growing awareness among developing and advanced economies of the
potential adverse impact of volatile capital flows.5
III. Conclusion
We are now about to start the 25th BOJ-IMES Conference. Following my remarks, this
year's Mayekawa
lecture will be given by the former president of the European Central
Bank, Mr. Jean-Claude Trichet. I am looking forward to hearing his views based on his
long experience in macroeconomic policy management in the euro area.
In the keynote speech, Professor Carl Walsh of the University of California, Santa Cruz,
the new Honorary Adviser to IMES, will share his views on monetary policy
frameworks under a low inflation and interest rate environment from an academic
perspective. As the author of the textbook Monetary Theory and Policy, which is a
must-read for central bank economists, and of various other significant contributions to
the literature, he is one of the most influential academics in this field.
Next, the paper presentations will focus on the following four topics: first, optimal
monetary policy taking international capital inflows into account; second, the reversal
interest rate; third, the Tinbergen Rule for financial stability and price stability; and
fourth, the impact of prolonged low nominal interest rates on banking stability.
The final and concluding session will be the policy panel discussion, moderated by
Professor Athanasios Orphanides of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, another
Honorary Adviser to IMES. As panelists, we will have Mr. Christian Hawkesby,
Mr. Klaus
Assistant Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand; Masuch, Principal
Adviser to the Director General Economics of the European Central Bank; and Mr.
Masazumi Wakatabe, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan.
I hope that the theoretical and practical discussions in this conference will deepen our
understanding of central bank design under a continued low inflation and interest rate
environment.
Thank you for your attention.
References
Borio, Claudio E. V., and Philip William Lowe, "Asset Prices, Financial and Monetary
Stability: Exploring the Nexus," BIS Working Paper No. 114, Bank for
International Settlements, 2002.
Heider, Florian, Farzad Saidi, and Glenn Schepens, "Life below Zero: Bank Lending
under Negative Policy Rates," ECB Working Paper Series No. 2173, European
Central Bank, 2018.
Maddaloni, Angela, and Peydró, "Bank Securitization,
José-Luis Risk-Taking,
Supervision, and Low Interest Rates: Evidence from the and the U.S.
Euro-Area
Lending Standards," Review of Financial Studies, 24(6), 2011, pp. 2121-2165.
Powell, Jerome H., "Monetary Policy Influences on Global Financial Conditions and
International Capital Flows," speech at "Challenges for Monetary Policy and the
GFSN in an Evolving Global Economy," Eighth Conference on the
High-Level
International Monetary System sponsored by the International Monetary Fund
and Swiss National Bank, in Zurich on May 8, 2018a.
Powell, Jerome H., "Monetary Policy in a Changing Economy," speech at the Federal
Reserve Bank of Kansas City's Economic Policy Symposium on "Changing
Market Structure and Implications for Monetary Policy," in Jackson Hole on
August 23-25, 2018b.
Rajan, Raghuram G., "Competitive Monetary Easing: Is It Yesterday Once More?"
Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, 8(1-2), 2015, pp.
5-16.
Svensson, Lars E. O., "Monetary Policy after the Financial Crisis," presentation at the
Second International Journal of Central Banking Fall Conference in Tokyo on
September 17, 2010.
White, William R., "Is Price Stability Enough?" BIS Working Paper No. 205, Bank for
International Settlements, 2006.