The Sun.
London, England, 1845-03-24 00:00:00

Making every deduction that can be safely admitted
for the superior cheapness of land and economy of con-
struction, it seems difficult to believe that a railway of
the same length out of London, involving works of a
very similar character, and passing for a considerable
distance through the London clay formation, which is
peculiarly unfavourable, can, with the present prices of
iron and labour, be constructed at a cost per mile so very
much less than the London and Birmingham Railway,
as would be required in order to bring the estimate of
the London and York line within anything like approxi-
mate accuracy.
At the lowest calculation which could be safely ad-
mitted, these 112 miles, including a metropolitan ter-
minus, Would, in all probability, require more than half
the capital that is proposed for the whole undertaking of
327 miles ; while there appears to be nothing to
warrant us in considering it as a result beyond the range
of possibility that this portion of the line might absorb
even a larger proportion of the whole amount.
On the whole, therefore, we believe that we should not
be warranted in assuming, as at all a probable event, that
the London and York scheme, as now proposed, could be
completed, with stations, metropolitan terminus, and the
requisite working stock of engines, carriages, &c., for a
less sum than 8,000,000/. ; while it is by no means im-
probable that the amount might be 9,000,000/. or
even 10,000,000/.
On the other hand, the cost of the Cambridge system
would be as follows : Length. Estimated
Capital.
Cambridge and Lincoln Line
Direct Northern Line from Lincoln

to York
Tottenham and Farringdon-street

Extension

800,000

1451 ... 3,274,000
To which must be added the following branches,
which are proposed by the Cambridge and Lincoln Com-
who pledge themselves to apply for powers in order to
carry them into effect, in order to complete the accom-
m-idation of the districts provided for by the London
and York system:— Estimated
Length. Capital.
Miles.
Cambridge and Lincoln:—
Boston Branch .
Spalding and Stamford Branch 20
With the Biggleswade branch of the Eastern Counties
Company, of twenty-five miles in length, and about
fifteen miles to complete the communication between
Doncaster and Gainsborough. Total length of new
railway to be constructed, about 218 miles; estimated
capital (including the Tottenham and Farringdon-street
Extension), about 4,250,0001.
This comparison does not include the lines which
upon either system would be equally required for local
purposes, or to complete the lateral communications,
such as the Nottingham and Lincoln, the Newark and
Sheffield, the Swinton and Doncaster, and the Wake-
field and Goole, but is confined to what may be consi-
dered as the integral parts of the two great competing
schemes.
The whole of the lines of the Cambridge scheme,
almost without exception, are of a singularly easy cha-
racter. For a great portion of the distance the rails
may be laid almost on the surface of the ground, while
the course of the line between Cambridge and Lincoln,
pursuing the verge of the fen country, is stated to avoid,
to a great extent, interference with the drainage, and the
necessity for frequent bridges, while it keeps upon sound
ground, and at no great distance from the materials re-
quisite for the construction of the road. It is thus, in
every respect, most favourably situated in regard to
economy of construction ; and although, from the rise
in the price of iron and of labour, the original capital
will doubtless be exceeded, there is still every reason to
believe that the whole line from Cambridge to York,
with the different projected branches, may be executed
for an exceedingly small average cost per mile.
There seems to be quite as much reason for consider-
ing it as a probable result that the whole Cambridge
system may be completed for a sum not exceeding
5,000,0001. or 6,000,0001., as that the London and York
system, as above described, may be completed for
8,000,000/. or 10,000,000/.
Another important difference between the two schemes
is in the number of miles of railway that will require
to be worked in order to accommodate the same princi-
pal sources of traffic. By the London and York system,
as we have seen, 327 miles of railway must be main-
tained and worked. The Cambridge system would re-
quire, as above stated, about 190 miles of new railway
to be worked, in addition to 51 miles of the existing
Northern and Eastern line from Tottenham to Cam-
bridge ; which, however, must be worked at any rate,
and would be in a great measure supported by a traffic
of its own from Cambridgeshire and Norfolk.
On the whole, therefore, the London and York scheme
would, in all probability, involve an additional outlay, as
compared with the Cambridge scheme, of 3,000,000 L or
4,000,0001., and would require nearly 90 (or if we ex-
clude the line from London to Cambridge, nearly 140)
sore miles of railway to be maintained and worked.
The average expenditure per mile for the year 1842,
upon the 1,500 miles of passenger railway then in ope-
ration in the United Kingdom, amounted to 1,300/., and
the cost of maintaining and working a good passenger
line of fair average traffic cannot be safely taken at less
than about 1,000/. per mile per annum. This, for in-
stance, is the cost upon the Midlands Railway, which
is in many respects similarly circumstanced to the
proposed London and York line. Including, there-
ford, the extra cost of working, and the interest upon
additional outlay, the London and York scheme would
be more expensive than that by Cambridge and Lincoln,
by an amount represented by an annual charge of from
15010001. to 200,0001.
Is there any probability of a traffic sufficient to war-
rant or to support this additional cost ?
The London and York estimate of traffic makes out a
gross annual receipt of 1,076,000/. ; i. e. of 20,0001. per
week, or of 611. per mile per annum on the whole 327
miles.
It is impossible for us to enter into a minute analysis
of the traffic estimates submitted to us, or to attempt to
check the accuracy of their details ; nor, indeed, would
such an attempt be of much use, since experience has
abundantly shown that such estimates, even when taken
with care, and sifted by evidence before Committees of
both Houses of Parliament, afford a very fallacious idea
of the results actually realised. In the present instance,
however, there are one or two obvious exaggerations
which materially affect the estimate before us :-
1. The passenger traffic is taken for the most part at
at an average of 21d. per passenger per mile. Now we
must bear in mind that, in the first place, there is the
competition of steam-boats, &c., for much of this traffic;
in the next place, that of other railways in a situation
to carry on a most effective competition, and already
charging much lower ; and, finally, that the Com-
pany themselves propose to run at least two third-
class trains, covered and seated, at the ordinary
speed, at fares not exceeding ld. a mile. Under
similar circumstances the Cambridge and Lincoln Com-
pany have taken their passenger traffic at an estimate of
only lid. per mile; and it appears obvious that this is
as high as can be safely assumed.
2. It is assumed that the railway will get the whole
traffic that exists, while it is perfectly obvious that a
great part of it will have to be competed for, and divided
with existing companies.
A slight advantage in distance is not sufficient to
enable a line to command the whole traffic, especially of
goods, and of second and third-class passengers, to whom
money is a greater object than a little gain of time. The
Midlands, and London and Birmingham Railways, must
run a number of trains at any rate every day for other
purposes, and it may be worth their while to carry, in
addition, all the traffic they can abstract from the Lon-
don and York line, at very low rates, rather than not
obtain it.

The actual cost of transport upon goods and passen-
gers, when once set in motion upon a long line of rail-
way, is exceedingly small, and a difference of an hour or
an hour and a half in the time of the journey from York
to London, and of a quarter or half an hour from Leeds
and the West Riding, would be scarcely perceptible on
many descriptions of traffic. Even where the competing
route was much more circuitous, as from Lincoln and
Newark, via Nottingham; or from Peterborough, via
Northampton, or via' Ely and Cambridge, to London,
the difference of distance would hardly be sufficient to
prevent a competing company from regulating prices and
abstracting traffic from the shorter route. Many instances
of this might be quoted from the experience of railways,
but it may be sufficient to refer to one, that of the com-
petition carried on for Manchester and London traffic,
by the extremely circuitous route of Normanton and
Derby, which lasted for a considerable time, and was at
length only terminated by an arrangement, by which
the direct line consented to pay a certain sum to buy off
the competition.
The certainty that any new line between London and
York must be exposed to this description of competition,
renders it the more desirable that economy of construc-
tion should be attended to as far as possible, as other-
wise the chances would be greatly increased of the new
line losing its independence, or being compelled to enter
into some compromise.
To return, however, to the investigation of the proba-
ble amount of traffic in the London and York line, it