The Sun.
London, England, 1845-03-24 00:00:00

may be well to consult the analogy of other railways
somewhat similarly circumstanced, which, in our opi-
nion, affords, generally speaking, a much safer test upon
which to rely, than the usual estimates of traffic. Re-
ferring to this test, it will be difficult to satisfy ourselves
that the estimate of 611. per mile per week over the
whole of the London and York scheme is at all likely to
be realised.

The Eastern Counties, and Northern and Eastern
lines, from London to Colchester and Bishop Stortford,
with 86 miles open, commanding the whole traffic of
the rich agricultural counties of Essex, Suffolk, Nor-
folk, and Cambridgeshire, with the metropolis, averaged
during the year 1844 only 371. per mile per week. The
average receipts for the same period of the Midland
Railway, with 163 miles open, and enjoying a monopoly
of the whole through traffic from York and the North,
Hull, Leeds, and the West Riding, &c., both to London
and to Sheffield, Derby, Nottingham, Leicester, Bir-
mingham, &c., and of those large manufacturing towns
with one another, was only 411. per mile per week.
The existing through traffic from York, Hull, &c., to
London, is stated only to amount to 97,0001. a year,
which is not 61. per mile per week on the 327 miles of
the London and York scheme ; and when we consider
that a very large proportion of the Scotch traffic will, in
all probability, go south, by the Caledonian route, while
at present, probably, nearly half of such as there is takes
the eastern route, it does not appear probable that there
will be anything in the mere circumstances of the open-
ing of the Newcastle and Berwick, and Berwick and
Edinburgh lines, or in the shortening of the journey to
York an hour, or an hour and a half, to cause any very
excessive increase of this through traffic.
An inspection of the map will also be sufficient to
show that the London and York scheme, for a consider
able part of its length, can hardly expect to command
an average mileage from local traffic. For the first 76
miles, from London to Peterborough, it traverses only a
few small towns, such as Barnet, Hatfield, Hitchin,
Biggleswade, St. Neot's, and Huntingdon, the united
population of which does not exceed 22,000 or 23,000.
Between Peterborough and Bawtry the " loop" and
main line form, in fact, two railways, of 70 and 86 miles
in length respectively, dividing the traffic of the follow-
ing places:— Population.
Peterborough .
Stamford
Grantham 2,786
Newark... 10,218
Tuxford 1,079
East Retford 2,680
Bawtry 1,083
Spalding
Boston
Lincoln
G ainsborough
Again, in the portion of the scheme north of Bawtry,
the Sheffield branch and the branch from Doncaster to
Wakefield, are directly competing lines with one another
for a considerable portion of the traffic of Lincolnshire
with Manchester and the manufacturing districts. The
latter branch also would be competed with to a certain
extent by the Doncaster and Swinton, or any line from
Doncaster to the North Midland Railway and Silkstone
Coal-field, and also by the Wakefield, Pontefract, and
Goole line. Moreover, the main line from Doncaster to
York runs so close to the existing North Midland and
York and North Midland lines, that its local traffic
would be much restricted.

Under these circumstances, it appears highly impro-
bable that the average mileage receipt over the whole
327 miles of the London and York scheme could equal
that of such lines as the existing Midlands or Eastern
Counties.
Another check on the probable amount of receipts is
afforded by the traffic estimates of other competing par-
ties in the same district, which are certainly not likely
to be under-rated, the object being equally to obtain
subscribers to the undertaking, by showing an ample
return in capital. The traffic estimate of the Cambridge
and Lincoln line shows a gross receipt of 166,000/. per
annum upon 83 miles of railway, or of 40/. per mile per
week. That of the Lincoln,York, and Leeds line, which
takes credit for nearly all the principal sources of traffic
of the London and York scheme north of Lincoln, as
well as of the Wakefield, Pontefract, and Goole line,
shows a gross receipt of 238,0001. per annum for 90
miles of railway, or of 501. per mile per week.
It is evident that the London and York scheme, if
sanctioned, could not command an average mileage re-
ceipt equal to either of these schemes, which concentrate
the same principal sources of traffic over so many fewer
miles of railway.
These considerations, combined with those already
stated in regard to the probable cost of construction,
render it evident to us that the London and York scheme,
if sanctioned in its integrity, could hardly be expected to
afford such a reasonable return as would justify. the
outlay of such an immense amount of capital ; while in
the event of a return to anything like the standard of
cost which prevailed during the construction of the prin-
cipal existing railways, the concern might become utterly
insolvent.

Under these circumstances, the question naturally
forces itself on our attention—What possible security
could a new company afford for the completion of such a
gigantic undertaking in its integrity, supposing it to re-
ceive the sanction of the Legislature ? Or again, what
security could they afford for the maintenance of the
undertaking, if completed, in a state of efficiency and in-
dependence ; and what prospect would the public have
of obtaining cheap and liberal accommodation, and of
participating in the advantages resulting from the pros-
perity of the company ?
These considerations appear to us to derive great
force from the peculiar circumstances of the lines pro-
posed, and of the districts to be accommodated. A new
trunk line between London and York will, as we havo
already seen, be necessarily exposed to the competition
of existing lines ; and the whole experience of railways
tend to show that it is only by a system which, from its
economical construction and ample resources, shall be
able to escape pecuniary embarrassments, that we caa
reasonably hope to prevent combination.
The benefits likely to result to the districts traversed,
will also materially depend on the ability of the railway
company to afford the means of communication at very
low rates.
The districts in question are almost exclusively agri-
cultural, and a great part of the benefit which is expectd
to accrue to them from the introduction of railways will
be derived from the transport of coals, lime, corn, cattle,
and agricultural produce. From the evidence which has
been submitted to us, we are induced to believe that by
the adoption of rates of charge upon these articles very
much lower than have been usual hitherto upon the
principal railways, but still not lower than are con-
sistent with an adequate return upon the capital
required for the construction of an economical line, such
extensive benefits may result to the great agricultural
interests concerned as to amount to a consideration of
national importance.
a The total cost attending the transmission of a quarter
of wheat from the interior of Lincolnshire by sea, from
the port of Boston to London, including freight, insur-
ance, lighterage, commission, and other charges, is
stated to amount to very nearly Bs. The charge by
railway, per quarter (allowing five quarters to the ton,
at the rate of lid. per ton per mile, at which the esti-
mate of the Cambridge and Lincoln Railway is taken),
would not exceed 25., and the remaining charges are cal-
culated not to exced 2s. 6d., thus showing a benefit to
the corn-grower and to the public of 3s. 6d. per quar-
ter, occasioned by the saving of the sums now paid for
insurance, delay, loss in weight, depreciation of quality,
lighterage, &c.
A still more important advantage to the farmer is
afforded by the opportunity given by railway communi-
cation of availing himself promptly of the most favour-
able market. It frequently happens that, owing to the
delay and difficulty of transmission the farmer is com-
pelled to sell his wheat at the nearest provincial market,
at a price considerably below the average rate, and to
lose the advantage of a temporary rise.
Whatever tends to equalize prices and to prevent ex-
cessive fluctuations, cannot but be considered as a benefit
both to the producer and to the consumer. We are
satisfied that much may be done in this way by an econo-
mical and well-arranged system of railway communica-
tion. _ _ _

For the transmission of fat stock to the London
market, and to those of the manufacturing districts, such
a system would, afford still greater advantages, the loss of
weight, and deterioration of quality under the present
system of driving, amounting to a heavy per tentage.
The loss of weight in driving to Smithfield market from
the rich grazing districts of Lincolnshire, is estimated to
average more than 281bs. per beast, and 71bs. per sheep
per head. This amount, under a low scale of railway
charges not exceeding the actual cost of driving, would
be entirely saved ; and at an average rate of sd. per lb.,
the sum thus saved annually would exceed 50,0001.
Great facilities also would be afforded for the transmis-
sion of slaughtered meat, by which a still larger saving
would be effected.
_

In the article of coals, the importance of a cheap rail-
way communication between the mineral fields and the
eastern agricultural counties can hardly be over esti-
mated ; the supply at present depends entirely on the
water communications, and when those are impeded, as
is frequently the case in winter by frost, and in summer
from want of water, the price of this indispensable ar-
ticle frequently rises to an excessive height. During
the present winter coals could, at one time, not be ob-
tained in many parts of the district in question, under
40s. or 50s. per ton. By railway, at the charge of id.
per ton per mile, which has been proved to be remune-
rative, a constant supply of coals would be afforded, at
prices varying from 10s. to 205., according to the prox-
imity to the coal field. Even in London, it is calculated
that Derbyshire coals could be introduced at a price not
exceeding 20s. per ton.
Such are a few of the more obvious advantages which
may be anticipated to result to Lincolnshire, and the
important eastern agricultural districts, from the intro-
duction of railways. It is true that these advantages
might be, to a certain extent, secured by any railway
however expensive ; but to a very great extent they de-
pend upon the possibility of introducing a much lower
system of rates than has hitherto been adopted ; and
this is an experiment which, upon lines of economical
construction, may be tried with safety, and the enforce-
ment of which may be guaranteed by legislative provi-
sions, while no such security could be given, or if given
could be depended upon, by a concern so costly as to
afford no adequate remuneration to its promoters. More-
over, if we look to the future, in the event of the experi-
ment of low fares proving successful, and of the traffic of
the country continuing to increase, still larger advan-
tages than are now in contemplation would be obtained
from a prosperous concern under the operation of a revi-
sion of rates after a certain limit of profit is attained,
while such advantages would be postponed indefinitely
where the original amount of capital invested had been
excessive. Also, with a view solely to the local accom-
modation of the district, more might be obtained if the
capital saved in the construction
of the principal lines
of communication were judiciously invested in branches
and transverse lines.
All these considerations tend to convince us that when
all the principal advantages of an equally good trunk