The Sun.
London, England, 1861-01-21 00:00:00

Mt SUN, ILONDOI4, 111011/41DAY .61v ENING, JANUARY 21, 1861.

THE DISRUPTION OF THE UNTO
AS IT WOULD AFFECT EATGLAED.

(From the Economist)
We last week promised our readers that we
would take the earliest opportunity of considering.
the bearing of the dissolution of the American Re-
public on the interests of our country, both political
and commercial. We will suppose that matters
will go on as they have begun—that the other
Slave States will join South Carolina) and that a
Southern Slave-holding Confederation will be
formed as an independent nation,prepared to enter
into relations with other States.

The first question that arises is, " Will England
recognise the independence and sovereignty of the
new State ?" The natural and spontaneous answer
is, of course, in the affirmative. Our principle is,
and has long been, to recognise and enter into ami-
cable relations with all de. facto States and Govern-
meats. The moment the severance is complete and
admitted, we have no concern either with antecedent
causes or proceedings. But here a difficulty arises.
What is our actual relation to the new Republic ?
Is the whole Union dissolved, or has there merely
been a separation of a portion of it ? Are our
treaties and engagements with both sections
of the Union dissolved by the dissolution of the
Union itself ? or do they still hold with the North
as with the original body with which they were
made? Do the Southern States, in seceding, still
remain bound by the engagements entered into by
the Confederation of which they formed a part at
the date !of those engagements ? Or will they
hold themselves liberated from all foreign contracts
by the same act which has severed them from their
domestic connexion.

These are somewhat difficult questions for inter-
national jurists to decide. Probably, as far as re-
gards the Northern States, they whl continue to
call and consider themselves as still the United
States, and as holding their former position and
treaties—none the less that they have lost a por-
tion of their territory. The real, immediate practi-
cal problem that lies across our path is this—
" Will the Southern Confederated States con-
sider themselves bound by those mutual en-
gagements as to abstinence from and suppression
of tho olarc txwdc, cuteied Into and still subsist-
ing between the United States and Great Britain ?"
Probably not—since one of their chief motives for
seceding is to be able to renew the slave trade. If
they hold themselves freed, we do not know how
we can bind them, or make themselves regard
themselves as bound. But supposing our diplomacy
were able to obtain this point, the only consequence
would be that they would give us formal notice of
their intention to abrogate those treaties and
engagements Otter a certain date. We might
remonstrate ; we might negotiate ; but we do not
know that we could refuse to accept such notice.
The peactical shape, therefore, in which the ques-
tion will come before us is this :—" Shall we recog-
nise their independent sovereignty, without
requiring as a condition that they shall renew and
observe the anti-slave trade treaties which subsist
with their Northern brethren, or even accept more
stringent ones ?" Doubtless we shall endeavour,
and in consistency and as a matter of duty ought to
endeavour, to make this condition ; since we cannot
shat our eyes to their notorious and avowed design
of reviving the abominable traffic, and to pretend
to do so would be to surrender the most passionately
and pertinaciously pursued object of our national
policy. We shall urge upon them that the trade is
prohibited by international agreement and by
municipal law in every civilised nation in the
world, and that we can recognise and treat with
no nation as civilised which persists in upholding it.
They will, of course, refuse to accept such a condi-
tion, as it would defeat one of their principal pur-
poses, and will insist on unconditional recognition.
What are we to do, then ? It might seem that we
are simply helpless in the matter. Three courses
are open to us—none of them entirely satisfactory.
We may recognise their independence at once, in
accordance with our usual practice; and, when we
have done so, may proceed to make the best terms
that we can as to the anti-slave-trade treaties. But
this course, though the simplest and easiest,
would be very painful to our feelings of
humanity, for we cannot disguise from our-
selves that it would be nearly equivalent to
unconditional surrender. Or, secondly, we may
forma'ly refuse to recognise them, and abstain from
all diplomatic intercourse with them unless or until
they shall consent to abstain from and prohibit the
slave trade; bat it is scarcely recessery that this
negative proceeding would bring them to terms, as
it would not prevent commercial intercourse, and
wou'd at most inflict some trifling inconveniences
wh:ch might be felt es much on one side as on the
other. If we choose slightly to vary our course and
to ignore the fact of their separation, and to con-
tinue to regard and treat them as still part of the
United States (which wou:d be rather a childish
mode of action), e'l that we could gain k would be
the right of forwaedi ig formal rernons:rarces, as
against a violation of existing engagements, in case
of any of their citizens being discovered to be
engaged in the slave trade—remonstrances which
they would of course disregard, and which the
treaties give us no right of following up by any
active measures. Or, again, we may take up the
matter in a high-handed way, and, white refusing
our recogniion of their independent national exist-
ence, treat any of their citizens whom we detect in
carrying slaves as pirates, sailing under ro known
flag, and protected by the nationality of no knowa
State. As to the advisability of so decided a pro-
ceeding, we will not yet offer an opinion. But
there is a fourth and a preferable alternative—viz.,
a cordial agreement between ourselves and the
Northern Federation to prevent the renewal of the
traffic at all hazards and by all means. Such cordial
agreement may now 'oe attainable, but, even with
it, we must bring our forcible interference within
the limits of international morality and usage, by
procuring from all other civi!ised nations a coo-
sentaneous declaration rendering the slave trade,
like piracy, a crime against humanity and the
world's law. and, as such, punishable by any wit-
ness and pursuer.
Apart from this perplexing question, we see no
reason for anticipating that a severance of the
Union, once effected peaceably and without
catastrophe, will be in any way injurious
to Great Britain. Oa the contrary, we are not
sure that it may not indirectly be rather bene-
ficial than otherwise. In the first place,
we may expect that America will be some-
what less aggressive, less insolent, and less irritable
than she has been. Instead of one vast State,
actirg on every foreign question corn toto corpore
regin, we shall have two, with different objects and
interests, and by no means al ways disposed to act in
concert or in cordiality. Instead of one, showing
an encroaching and somewhat bull), ing front to the
rest of the world, we shall have two, showing some-
tiing ot the same front to each other. Each will
be more occupied with its immediate neighbour,
and therefore less inclined to quarrel with more
distant nations. Then, too, for some time at least,
that inordinate, though most natural sense of tin-
t ivalled prosperity and power, which swelled so
flatulently and disturbingly in the breast of every
citizen of the great Transatlantic Republic, will
receive a salutary check. Their demeanour is likely
to become somewhat humbler and more rational,
and it will therefore be easier to maintain amicable
and tranquil relations with thorn than it has been.
In place, too, of Europe being obliged to watch and
thwart their annexing tendencies the two federa-
tions will probably exercise this sort of moral police
over each other. Neither of them will look with
much complacence on the annexation of States or
territories which will add power and dominion to
the other, and so disturb their relative equilibrium.
Unprincipled and reckless Southerners, like Mr.
Buchanan, may talk of seizing on Mexico, Nicara-
gua,and Cuba; unprincipled and in Rated Northerners,
like Mr. Seward, may talk of seizing on Canada; but
there will be some hope that we may leave them to
each others' mutual control, and smile at the villa-
nous cupidities of both. With the Northern Federa-
tion, too, we may look to maintaining more cordial
relations than we have often heretofore been able
to do; not only will the embarrassing question of
slavery, which has caused so much righteous indig-
nation on our side and so much bitter resentment
and irritation on theirs, be for ever removed from
between us. but the immediate and marked improve-
ment which we may look for in the tone and work-
ing, if not in the form of the institutions of the North,
when Southern Democracy, complicated as it has
been with slavery, shall have ceased to poison and de-
grade them, can scarcely fail to bring them more into
harmony with English feeling, because to command
more of English confidence and respect. The more
they civilise (they must pardon us the word, for
assuredly they are getting rid of a barbarizing ele-
ment), the more friendly and cordial shall we in-
evitably grow.
But what will be the consequences to Great Bri-
tain, in a commercial point of view, of the disrup-
tion of the Union, if that disruption should be accom-
panied by war, and should be followed (as in that
case would be not improbable) by such a general ,
insurrection of the slave population as would inter-
rupt for a longer or a shorter period the growth of
cotton in the Southern States ? This catastrophe
would be so terrible, its accompaniments so shock-
ing, and its results everywhere and in every way
so deplorable, that we most earnestly pray that it
may be averted ; but the danger of it, if a civil con-
flict does break out, is so obvious and so imminent
that it would be simple folly to shut our eyes to so
possible a contingency. How, then, would it affect
this country ?
; It is not easy to over-estimate the extent or gravity
of the consequence to Great Britain of a cessation,
or even of any large or sudden diminution, of the

supply of cotton from the United SI ates. But ex en
in facing a danger of such vast and admitted mag-
nitude, it is impertart to be exact as to our facts
and reasonings, and to avoid all nreaggerated ter-
rors. Let us recall to our reader's minds the preclsd
bearing of the case. The cotton manufacture, from
first manipulation of the raw material to the last
finish bestowed upon it, constitutes the employment
and furnishes the sustenance of the largest portion
of the population Of taneashire, North Cheshire,
and Lanarkshire, of a considerable number in Der-
byshire, Leicestershire, Nottinghamshire, and York-
shire, and of scattered individuals in several other
parts of England, Scotland, and Ireland. The actual
number of hands directly employed was stated by
M'Culloch in 1854 to be rather more than 500,000 ;
there can be no doubt that it now greatly exceeds
this figure; and if we take into account the sub-
sidiary trades and occupations, coal mines, ma-
chine works, &c., and add the unemployed families
of the workmen, we may safely assume that nearer
4,000,000 than 3,000,000 are dependent for their
daily bread on this branch of our industry.
The total aggregate value of British produce and
manufactures exported in 1859 was £130,440,000 ;
of this sum cotton goods and yarns constituted
£48,200,000, or more than one-third, Of this sum
the United States took £4,635,000.
Let us now see to what extent we are dependent
on the United States for our supply of the raw
material for all this enormous production. Many
countries contribute to our consumption, but none
so largely as North America. In ordinary years
she supplies us with about three-fourths of our con-
sumption; and we take off more than half her pro-
duction. During the last four years of which we
have full accounts, 1857-1860, our consumption was,
of all sorts, 9,062,700 ; of the United States' cotton,
7,140,000 bales, or rather more than 77 per cent.
But although we usually receive 75 per cent. of
our supplies from North America, we must not con-
found this with being actually dependent upon that
country for this amount. The practical question,—
if we wish to measure the precise degree of dearth
to which we should be subjected in case of the
American supply being interrupted,—is, what pro-
portion of our supply could we, under the pressure
of high prieeg, and stimulated mercantile enterprise,
obtain from other quarters ? To answer this ques-
tion we must look back for exceptional years. It
is true that the West Indies send us little, and send
us all they grow. Brazil and Egypt might send
us somewhat increased supplies, especially by send-
, ing less to the Continent. India can send us a
very much larger amount than she really does,
because vast quantities are always grown, and they
are shipped here or consumed at home according to
the ruling prices of the year. Now we find that
in one year (1857) when the crop in the United
States fell shoat. India sent us 680,000 bales, and
other quarters 255,000* • while America supplied
only 1,482,000 ba'es. it will, therefore, we taiek,
be fair and moderate to assume that under such
extraordinary pressure and inducements as would
be presented by a cessation of the Atherican supply,
we should be able to obtain from India, Egypt, Brazil,
and miscellaneous quarters, at least one-third more
than we did in 1857,—0r a total supply of about
1,200,000 bales. Now, in 1859 our actual consump-
tion (after deducting re-exports) was 2,300,000
bales ; and in 1860 (an extraordinary year) 2,630,000
bales. The extreme effect, therefore, of an entire
cessation of the production of cotton in America
would appear to be this—that our mills would have
to work about half time, as long as the dearth
lasted in full intensity. What would be :the effect
on wages and on profits—whether the manufac-
turers would gain half profits, or no profits at all,
and whether the workpeople would still earn half
wages, or less or more than half—would, of course,
depend upon the question whether the scarcity of
the manufactured article raised its price in the same
or in a greater or a smaller ratio than the scarcity
of the raw material raised its price—a matter as to
which conjecture would be simply idle, The result
upon our exports it is equally impossible to predict.
Very possibly the home market might takeoff a
larger proportion of the total production than here-
tofore ; if it did not, and if we exported half the
quantity we usually do, the probability is that the
price of this quantity would be so largely enhanced
as to leave the aggregate value of our cotton ex-
ports not far short of its present amount. The in-
fluence on the shipping trade would of course be
great—freights would necessarily fall.
We have stated what in our judgment—and
apart from the possible effects of panic—wi'l be the
extreme effect of the worst that can ensue (viz., an
entire stoppage of cotton cultivation in America)
on our chief branch of national industry. It is
serious enough, no doubt, and may well cause grave
uneasiness to all concerned—and who is not directly
or indirectly implicated ?—in the prosperity of the
cotton manufacture.- But we may anticipate that
the effects we have described will in actual opera-
tion be mitigated by degrees in various ways. In the
first place a great stimulus will be given to the
already awakened activity of our merchants in pro-
curing supplies the raw material from quarters
that are only now just beginning to be thought of,
but whence, under sufficient pressure, considerable
quantities might before long be procured. Thus, we
know by experiment that excellent cotton of the
Sea Island. descriptions can be grown in Australia.
The small shipments of the article that have fro at
time to time been forwarded to this country frarn
Port Natal resemble in quality the production of
the United States much more closely than do those
from either Egypt, India, or South America. The
same observation willapply to the sample, bales
which have been received from the West Coast of
Africa. From both these quarters there is reason
to believe that, under the stimulus of high prices,
considerable quantities might be procured as soon
as a regular traffic could be set ox foot and means
of transport be procured. It has lately become
known that cotton is largely grown in the interior,
and is even manufactured there ; and adequate in-
ducements would no doubt persuade the natives not
only to grow more for our use, but to sell instead of
manufacturing much of what is already grown. In
a few years, too, considerable quantities might
again be procured from Asia Minor, as was the case
formerly. " Smyrna cotton" was once well known
in the trade, and some is stall imported.
In the se.•ond place, a considerable economy in
the consumption of the raw material would be at
once effected, under the influence of a high rate of
prices, by a general tendency among manufacturers
towards the production of the finer fabrics. Most
mills have a range of potent,:al production (without
any alteration in their machinery) of at least 30 per
cent.—often more. Manufacturers who now use
weekly 100 bales could easily, by turning to finer
fabrics, reduce their consumption to 70 or 75 bales.
Those articles into which the raw material enters
most largely would, of course, be those which rela-
tively would be most enhanced in price, and for
which therefore, the demand would be most cur-
tailed. " Domestics," as they are called, o: strong
cotton cloths and shirtings, and coarse yarns would
be discouraged ; and, as their price approached
more nearly to that of linen and woollen fabrics,
would ibe to a considerable extent superseded by
them. This wsuld cause an increase in the produc-
tion of these later articles, and a consequent in-
creased demand for workpcople, and by this process
a considerable number of the hands thrown out of
work in the cotton trade would be absorbed, and
the suffering to the operatives, though not the loss
to the masters, would be greatly mitigated.
These palliatives would no doubt be a work of
time, but they would begin to operate immediately ;
and in coaclusion it must be remembered that,
though we have preferred to consider the case is
reference to a total cessation of cotton production
in North America, yet such a total cessation, even
in the event of negro insurrection and a servile war,
is scarcely to bo apprehended. In Texas already a
considerable amount of cotton is grown by free
labour, and on many isolated plantations production
would most probably continue—at all events for a
time.

As to the consequences of the severance of the
Union on our trade with North America, in case
the severance is peaceably effected and no extensive
slave insurrection ensue, we do not apprehend that
any material change will be felt, as soon as the
monetary derangement shall have subsided, and
the existing organization of draughts and payments
shall have been modified as far as is necessary to
meet the altered circumstances. We shall of course
continue to receive from the planting States all the
cotton that we wish to buy and that they have to
sell. Our exports will not probably be much, if at
all affected. It is probable that the Northern States
will raise their tariff as much as the Southern
States lower theirs; we shall send more manufac-
tures to New Orleans, and less to New York than
we do now. What would be the consequences to
our aggregate commeree with America of a general
negro insurrection, or of negro emancipation, it is
idle to speculate and impossible to estimate.

It is true that a considerable part of this was re-ex-
ported ; but we have assumed, as the most probable result,
that in such a peremptory demand as the case supposes,
we should retain all we import, our necessities being more
imperious than those of any other country,

[ADVERTISEMENT.] - Holloway's Pills. Sceptics
Silenced.—Many persons who have doubted the wonderful
curative and purifying powers of these pills, and afterwards
witnessed the beneficial effect produced by them in diseases
of the digestive organs, have been coutrained to admit
their efficiency, have adopted them as their own domestic
aperient, and graciously recommended them to friends.
Holloway's pills act primarily on the stomach, which they
thoroughly invigorate . they then exercise a most whole-
some influence over the liver, from which they immediately
remove any congestion or temporary stagnation of the bile
or blood. The discovery of these pills was indeed a
triumph I How much sadness and sorrow have they
banished? Holloway's pills have relieved thousands from
habitual pain and confirmed ill health,

11.13 CENT MILLS AND BEQUESTS.

The will of the Right Hon. Lady Amelia Need-
ham, of Datchet House, Bucks, who died at Wind-
sor on Dec. 25, was proved in London on the Bth
insLi by H. F. Bristowe, Esq., of Lincoln's-inn, the
sole executor. This lady, who is highly connected,
being the daughter of the late Earl of Kilmory, and
sister to the present earl, has left her property
.to
her sister and nieces, her ladyship being unmarried
and has appointed her niece, Lady Selina Needham,
residuary legatee. The ic.statrix has not been un-
mindful of the poor of Datchet, having ',bequeathed
the sum of £5O for their benefit.
The will of Lady Maxwell, relict of Sir C. W.
Maxwell, late of Chester-street, Belgrave square,
who died at George-street, Bathwick, Bath, on 17th
Nov. last, was proved in London on the 7th inst.
Lady Maxwell disposes of her property to her sister
nephews, and recces, bequeathing amongst then
various arcles of costly jewellery and plate, and
appointing her sister residuary legatee.
'f he will of Alderman Sir G. Carroll, Kni., was
proved in the London Court of Probate on the 101 i
inst., and the personalty sworn under £120,000.
The executors nominated are his relict and Joseph
Maynard, Esq., of Coleman-street. The NS ill bears
date April 6, 1859. Sir G. Carroll died suddenly,
on the 18th December last, at the advanced age of
77. He was well known in the City from his
former extensive business as a stockbroker,
and being very prominent as a member of the cor-
poration of the City of London, having attended
with great assiduity and vigilance to the corporate
affairs. S'.r George served the various offices of
Sheriff, Alderman, and ultimately of Lord Mayor.
The testator's will contains the following disposi-
tions :—He bequeaths to his widow a life interest in
his entire property, subject to the payment of cer-
tain legacies and charitable bequests; to his son-in-
law, the Rev. H. E. C. Cobden, M.A.. Rector of
Lambley, Notts, he leaves a life interest in the sum
of £lO,OOO, and on the decease of this gentleman,
the principal is directed to be paid to the testator's
grandch4idren, who also, on the decease of Lady
Carroll, take the entire residue of the estate. There
is a legacy of £5,000 to his great nephew, Horace
Tahourden, and also one of £l,OOO to his executor.
Sir George has contributed the sum of £5OO to each
of two institutions, one of them being the most pro-
minent of our city charities—we allude to St. Bar-
tholemew's Hospital ; the other gift is to he Asy-
lum for Idiots.— Illustrated London News.