The Sun.
London, England, 1861-01-28 00:00:00

provokes France, and comes out of the two n;onths
struggle beaten, humbled, exhausted, and with
national, added to financial derangement. She has
just played her last card in giving a constitution to
her dissatisfied provinces. But this constitution,
torn from her by fear, has excited demand every-
where and satisfied discontent nowhere.
is ruining herself to keep enormous masses of
troops in Venetia, and yet the Emperor Francis
Joseph, not being sure of the provinces that he
leaves behind him, and not being able to rely an/
longer on Russia, as in 1849, does not dare to
take a step beyond his fortresses. Austria
Prussia does not love Austria, whose natural
rival she is; but in order to keep in Europe the i
attitude and authority of a great power, she s
compelled to adopt a firmer, more direct and bolder
policy ; let her remember the triumphs of Re"
bath a little less, and the humiliations of Jena
little more. Above all let her be convinced at
length that paltry finessing, tergiversation, and
ambiguity are unsuited to the present time!.
She wished to persuade England and Russia
that she agreed with each of them, and she mast
have subsequently found out that in so doing she
was wanting in cleverness as well as in frankness.
For the rest, as the principle proclaimed in Italy
and maintained by France and England might re-
ceive in Germany an application favourable to tho
interests and the ambition of the House of Branden-
burg, it is not probable that the new King 01"
Prussia, in spite of the inexplicable stupidity of his
speech, dreams of going arm in arm with England
and France on the dangerous path followed by
Austria.
Russia is a power full of life and growth, which
uses her fortune moderately, and studies the causes
of her misfortunes in order to prevent their recur-
rence She undertakes railways and encourages
maritime companies ; she colonises the vast region
of the Amoor, and gains ground by treaties rather
than by arms in China, which she is opening to her
commerce. She has studied, and now she is put-
ting in execution, the project of Peter the Great, to
join by a canal the Black and the Caspian Seas;
she has subdued and seeks to attach to her the
people of the Caucasus, thus securing to herself I
' passage into Georgia, Persia, and Asia Minor; she
is extending 6)v-cry day her relations with Turkis-
tan, in order to push on further and further on the
road to the Indies, into which she is sending her
outposts, her merchandise, and her scientific ob-
servers. A government taken up with such works
and such plans does not dream of forming coali-
tions.
As to the Emperor Alexander, he has too much
to do in his own States to throw himself stupidly
into the storms of Italian politics. He has before
him a whole population of serfs, which he has en-
couraged to demand their rights, though he bas
not yet found the means of granting them without
danger. If be were as powerful as the greatest of
bis ancestors, he could not look without trembling
on the troubles which threaten him, and which,
should they actually break out, might overthrow
his Government. The war obstinately provoked
by his father has ruined his southern provinces
and shaken his credit, and it is with great diffi-
culty that he keeps up a considerably reduced
army. He may recall his ambassador from
Turin, and encourage Francis 11. in his
resistance, but the times when Suwarrow crossed
the Alps to stop the triumphs of the French
armies are past never to return. The Emperor
Alexander may not approve of all that is taking
place in Italy, but he will not make war to oppose
the formation of an Italian kingdom. Besides, to
prevent Austria from encroaching on the Lower
Danube, to drive her out of Italy and to raise up
in the Peninsula a state able to defersd its inde-
pendence, are traditional ideas in the Cabinet of St.
Petersburg.
A coalition in the present condition of Europe is
then, if not absolutely impossible, at least essen-
tially improbable. A new war this spring, is that
equally so ? That is another matter, and one which
depends above all on the Italians. It is important
accordingly to have an exact conception of their dis-
positions and their real interests.