The Sun.
London, England, 1861-08-23 00:00:00

PROSPECTS OF TEE COTTON TRADE.

The following important report has been just
issued by Messrs. Neill Brothers, of Manchester :

11, Cross-street, Manchester, Aug. 21.

Dear Sir,—Since the date of our circular of 22d
ult., the stock of cotton at Liverpool has shown a
steady decline. The quantity of American then
held in warehouse and afloat was 860,000 bales.
It is now 639,000 bales. For one week it increased by
about 30,000 bales. This was about used up in the
succeeding three weeks.' They are again, therefore,
buying more freely. During the past four weeks
and four days, the takings from Liverpool for con-
sumption have been 180,000 bales, or about 39,000
per week. Adding 2,000 per week for Glasgow,
&c., would make the total consumption of Ameri-
can cotton for the kingdom 41,000 per week, which
was precisely our estimate. Taking consumption
and export together, the figures have been 210,000
bales, against 216,000—a very slight discrepancy.
In the remaining months of last year (24th August
till 28th December) consumption absorbed 775,000
bales, and export 68,000 bales, in all 843,000
bales. It is impossible that the acme rate of
absorption should be maintained this year, for the
whole available supply is only 639,000 bales, with-
out any prospect of its being replenished before the
close of the year. Yet, the supply of American
cotton will, no doubt, be sufficiently economised to
enable it to last till that date, or longer, by the
gradual advance in price throwing a larger
proportion of the consumption on Surat, of which
the supply is happily unusually large ; and by a
limitation of the hours of labour, there being, we
understand, a pretty general resolve on the part of
the trade not to " light up" at all this winter, or, at
least, so long as the deficiency in the supply of cot-
ton continues.!
With regard to the probable continuance of the
war we have merely to confirm what we said in our
last. Many thought then that the North was not
in earnest, and others that their immense pre.
parations would ensure them an easy victory. The
opinion which we ventured to give, that " the Go-
vernment and people of the North vastly under-rate
the difficulties before them, and equally over-rate
their own strength and endurance," has had a very
emphatic confirmation in the result of the first great
battle. The believers in an early conclusion of the
war, however, still cling to the same idea, but upon
the very opposite grounds. The general idea now
is that the North will be forced to yield by the de-
moralisation of her army, the impossibility of raising
money, and the evident futility of the attempt to
conquer the South. We beg to caution our friends
against being led away by this kind of argument
into any hope of an early peace. Money never was
so abundant in the States as it is at present. The
deposits held by the New York bankers at last ac-
counts amounted to 93,687,000 dols. against an
average of 77,721,000 dols. at the corresponding
dates for the past five years ; and the specie or bullion
to 46,900,000 dols., against an average of 21,249;000
dols. The difficulty is to employ the money in safe
securities, and, as this difficulty is increasing, it is
probable that the high terms which the Govern-
ment will be ready to pay will tempt capitalists
,o take the earlier loans. We have no doubt

that the reasons now urged for an immediate peace
will ultimately bring it about. The North will
have to learn the limited extent of her powers as

compared with the gigantic task she has under-
taken. One, and perhaps two, defeats will be in-
sufficient to reverse the false education of a life-
time. Many lessons will probably be necessary,
and, meantime, any success the Northern troops
may obtain will again inflame the national vanity,
and the lessons of adversity will need to be learned
over again. More effect will probably be produced
by sufferings at home—by the ruin of the higher
classes, and pauperisation of the lower, and by the
general absorption of the floating capital of the
country. But this will take time to show itself,
and to work its effect in the creation of a peace
party strong enough to have weight with the Go
vernment. In the meantime the war must go on,
as there is not the smallest chance of the South sub-
mitting.
That the latter is preparing for a protracted war
is evidenced by the following documents :
" A CARD TO COTTON PLANTERS.

" The undersigned cotton planters in the city of
New Orleans, in view of the interest of all parties,
recommend to their various customers and corre-
spondents not to ship any portion of their crops of
cotton to this city, or to remove it from their plan-
tations, until the blockade is fully and entirely
abandoned, of which due notice will be given."
This is signed by 141 firms, said to be all the
cotton factories in New Orleans, and who control
considerably more than one-half of the entire
cotton crop.

" Office Board of Underwriters,'
"New Orleans, July 23, 1861.
" At a meeting of this board held to-day, the fol-
lowing resolution was adopted, and ordered to be
published :
" ' Resolved, That no river insurance on cotton
bound to this port, nor fire insurance on cotton. in
tlietaioif h7e-enaVigitltrOii ;eeumed.
Cotton on plantations may be insured against fire to
the extent of three-fourths of its value, provided it is
stored in lots of not exceeding 150 bales, and the
lots at least 300 feet apart.'
"JAMES H. WHEELER, Secretary."

In the face of these decisions it need hardly be
expected that much cotton will come through New
Orleans during the continuance of the blockade,
whether efficient or not, and it is quite probable
that the same coarse will be taken at the other
ports. To prevent cotton being sent to the North
overland, the following order has been pubiished, in
addition to the stringent law already published
against any transport of cotton into the Free States:
" Headquarters Department, No. 1.
"New Orleans, La., June 26, 1861.