The Sun.
London, England, 1866-04-28 00:00:00

HIGH WATER AT LONDON BRIDGE.

THIS DAY.-3lorniug, lh. 18m.—Afternoon, lh. 38133.
To-Moßßow.-Ilerning, lh. 56m.—Afternoon, 2h. 12m.

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LONDON, SAIURDAY, APRIL 28, 1866

Our calculations as to what yesterday appeared to
us likely to prove the probable result of the great
Division which took place this morning as the day
was just beginning to break--have been fulfilled to
the very letter. A more scrupulously exact poli-
tical prophecy, we venture to assert with confidence,
could hardly, by any possibility, be adduced. In

testimony of the precise and minute accuracy of our
anticipatory estimate, we refer to our first leading
article of yesterday, in which the result of the divi-
sion was announced through the medium of our first
edition early in the afternoon, as nearly as possible
twelve hours before the division actually took
place. In our argument as to the probabilities of
the political situation, we did not content ourselves

with merely remarking upon them in general terms,
that —" Thanks to the egregious blundering of her
MAJESTY'S Ministers in this matter, the prospects
held out by the division are, unhappily, only too
clear." Adding that—"l'he magnificent majority
of seventy-eight with which they met Parliament,
has, under that blundering of theirs, dwindled and
dwindled down until the prospect for them of any
majority at all has almost come to be problematical."
Further than that—we said—" The
prevailing ex-
pectation is, in fact, that the opposing parties will
be so very nearly balanced that the preponderance
of numbers on one side or the other must be small
indeed, must be all but infinitessimal. Ministers, if
they win at all, it is thought, can only win by a ma-
jority so small as to be almost nominal." While
we added, in regard to that, as it appeared
to us, probable contingency, that " Even in that
case, their existence must be seriously jeopardised."
Nay, not satisfiedwith even putting it thus strongly
and explicitly, we took occasion to observe, imme-
diately afterwards, that—" A Cabinet only able to
clear itself from the risk of being put in a minority
by some-half-a-dozen votes out of a House of over
six hundred members, could not, with any sense
of self-respect, carry on—precisely as they are
—the QUEEN'S Government. Defeating the Amend-
ment thus by merely half-a-dozen votes or there-
abouts in so large a House, they must (more than
ever in spite of themselves) follow up, in a different
sense from what was intended, the recent proposal
in regard to the Franchise by—A Redistribution of
Seats—among themselves !" The precise predic-
tion, however, already referred to as having been
given in The Sun of yesterday, fully twelve hours
before the division actually took place, was conveyed
in the following plain and unmistakable language :

" To put the matter very simply in reference to

this now fast-approaching division—the division

must, it is expected, show a result, in the shape
of a clear majority, very small, indeed—so small

;hat some go so far as to think that the total of the

clear majority thus arrived at, may almost be

numbered up on the fingers of one hand ! "

The words given in the above extract are in
point of fact actually printed from the very type
from which thei were printed in our impression of
yesterday—•the type not having been distributed
when our prediction has verified to the very
" The clear majority thus arrived at may
almost be numbered up on the fingers of one hand 1"
FlVE—being the precise amount, as is now seen, of
that clear majority ! This little less than nominal,
this all but infinitesimal majority for Ministers,
moreover, having been arrived at in about the largest

letter.

House that has ever been divided—a House num-
bering (including the four Tellers and the Speaker)
as many as 636, altogether. The scene of excite-
ment in the House itself, when this nearly dead-heat
between Government and Opposition was an-
nounced, could hardly be described, as it actually
was, without an appearance of exaggeration. It
closed one of the most resolute and determined
party fights within our remembrance. That it
was regarded by the Opposition as a signal
triumph over their Ministerial antagonists,
the thundering cheers, accompanied by the frantic
waving of hats—cheers again, and again, and again,
renewed as though the Opposition would never cease
those evidences of their exultation—indicated plainly
enough! Yet those cheers and thatprolonged waving
of hats hardly indicated the fact as plainly as the
crest-fallen air of the members on the Government
side of the House, but more especially on the Trea-
sury benches. For the Ministerial decision there-
upon—that is to say, consequent upon this result of
of the Division—we must wait until the house
meets on Monday evening, when the Chancellor
of the Exchequer, according to his significant pro-
mise, will explain the Order of Business. Mean-
while, to-morrow—Sunday—will no doubt be given
up to political rumours of the wildest description.
For, anything almost, just now, is on the cards—
saving and excepting only the continuance in office,
as at present constituted, of Her MAJESTY'S Govern-
ment.

We have news from New York to April 14,
brought by the Damascus. The chief feature of
interest is the report that the trial of Mr. DAVIS is
expected to take place within the next two months
at the Circular Court at Richmond. The Radical
party appear to have determined to make the un-
fortunate EX-PRESIDENT of the Confederacy their
next object of attack, but it is by no means certain
that they will succeed in carrying their point. Mr.
JOHNSON is known to be unwilling to sacrifice
JEFFERSON DAVIS, and, indeed, such a proceeding
would be as impolitic as it would be unjust.
It would greatly embitter the feelings of
the South, while we have no doubt that it would be
very unwelcome to a large and influential party in
the North. If JEFFERSON DAVIS is once arraigned
before a Northern tribunal it is not very doubtful
what will be the immediate issue. They can hardly
fail, according to the written doctrine, to find the
PRESIDENT might
his
smight
clemencyfind
recognised head of the Confederacy guilty of
d fllw h iecohl t t hteo
ittr esatsiolln ,maofrteer
is not at all impossible that Mr. JOHNSON
in opposition to Mr. STEVENS and his party. It

siderable changein
A few weeks may make a con
States, and may
• l affairs in the
may not allow matters to reach that point.
the position of political
ON
considerably strengthen Jo/INS'S hands.
Mr.
Thanks to the assiduous efforts of the ultra Repub-
licans, the people have been somewhat inclined to
resent the second veto, but there is no question that
they are fully prepared to endorse the general policy
of the PRESIDENT and his colleagues. We have an
instance of the moderation and statesmanship of Mr.
JOHNSON and Mr. SEWARD in their refusing to
employ the ordinary means of American
rulers when they wish The to gain popular support.
y have made no effort to divert the minds
of the people from domestic to foreign affairs,
even though the conduct of the Fenians and
the renewal of the old disputes about the
fisheries offered tempting opportunities for
getting up a little excitement. A fresh ipr, whether

foreign or domestic, is certainly not to be desired
by Americans just now. They need a time
of peace at home and abroad to renovate them-
selves, to restore the old spring and energy
to the commercial classes, and to enable their boun-
tiful soil to atone to them for the destruction and
the losses of the war.

Nothing now is heard about the Fenians except-
ing that Mount Desert, in Maine, is reported to be
one of their places of rendezvous. A British gun-
boat is cruising near Frenchman's Bay, on the look
^ out, so that they are not to be allowed to carry out
their plans without molestation. This state of things
is harassing and costly to the colonists, but may
possibly be productive of good eventually, by
accelerating the fulfilment of the Confederation
scheme, which might, perhaps, have been long de-
layed without a powerful incentive. By a kind of
poetical justice, the very colony which broke up the
whole plan has been the first to be threatened, and
has consequently discovered that isolated dignity has
its drawbacks. The colonies are, in fact, increasing
too much in importance, and are, too, naturally
wealthy to stand alone any longer with safety ; and
without losing any of their individuality a confede-
ration under one central power would add very
much to their security, and consequently assist in
developing their resources.