The Sun.
London, England, 1866-06-18 00:00:00

Cottou and Its Future.

Our stocks of cotton are above 1,000,000 bales. To many
this sentence may seem of little import, but it has without
doubt a personal interest to every ono; not only in this
Sountry, but throughout tho world. - During the last
twenty years, six times only in the history of the cotton
trade have stocks been greater at the close of any month ;
and prices were then from 6d. to Bd. for middling Orleans.
Independently of our recent money crisis, cotton has been
week by week succumbing to the logic of facts ; and a con-
tinuance of high rates in the face of our flood of imports
has proved impossible. On the 30th of March our stocks
were 552,783 bales t our supplies at sea, 695,000 ; and our
price of middling Orleans 1911, and fair Dhollerah (East
India) lad. On' the first day of Juno our stocks were
1,043,000 (including London) ; middling Orleans, 14d. ;
fair Dhollerah, 9fd. So strong was the high price delu
sion some time ago that largo contracts wore made for dc-

livery of Dhollerah cotton in Bombay in April at Md.
No wonder, then, that holder after holder has gone down,
and paid the penalty of his "fantastic faith" with the utter
draining of his resources.
It will be seen that as recently as the end of March a

cloth weighing Blb would require (if made of mid-
dling Orleans) the sum of 12s. 10d. imested in cotton ; now
the same cloth requires only 9s. 4d. invested. This
is all gain to the consumer. To put it in another light,
we have already received this year about 2,000,000 bales
of cotton ; we are likely still to receive 1,600,000, and we
will pay less for them than we would have done by about
Bd. per lb. It follows therefore that (as the bale averages
360 lb.) we will have about £19,000,000 left in our pockets,
and even if we deduct ten millions for losses made by.our
importers we are gainers by £9,000,000. Moreover the
loss made is so far imaginary. True, if A. imports cot-
ton, paying for it 16d. and selling it at Bd. to 8., he loses
Bd. ; but on the other hand B. gains that sum as he gets it
for Bd. instead of 161. The money is simply transferred
from A. to 8., and `3owever unpleasant it may be to the
party it is transferred from, the county is not poorer.
The great point now is, what price is safe ? Are we
again to be driven up to high rates by speculators bolstered
up by tjie fictitious facilities of the finance companies, or
are we going to be guided by sound judgment and examine
data, and find that prices can never rise again to the in-
flated currency of the last year or two? Our views are
that (including the American duty of five cents per lb.)
middling Orleans should rule about 81. to 10d., and East'
India fair about 6d. We do not mean to say that this
will at once take place, but once the safety of the growing
American crop is known, then these rates should rule, and
they will pay all parties well.
Before examining into cotton we may say that the reek-
lass locking up of capital, and the over-nursing of specula-
tion in cotton by some of the finance companies and India
banks is strongly to be condemned. They seem to have
been limited only in one sense (that of common sense), and
the sales of their shares show the penalty they have in-
curred. As Cornelius O'Dowd says of an encumbered es-
tate in Ireland, "one can live a long time on parchment,
but if you come once to Judge Dobbs and an open sale
there's an end of you, and you won't get credit for a pair
of shoes the day after."
But to return to cotton : we have ample supplies on
hand and on the way to last till early in November and
leave an extensive stock. By that time the new American
crop will be coming to hand, and the great question is,
What size will it be ? That will rule the price all next
year of all kinds of cotton from all parts.
We believe in a crop of at least 3,000,000 bales
American, of which our share will be
East India supply, say only (as our bad ac-
counts may deter planting) 1,200,000
Brazil, 450000 ; Egypt, 300,000; Turkey,
100,000; West Indies and Peru, 200,000 1,050,000

1867 supplies
Add stock on December :11, 1866, likely 750,000

4,800,000
which will allow a weekly consumption of 60,000, an ex-
port of 20,000, and leave a stock at the end of 1867 of
640,000 bales ; and we may as well say that 55,000 con-
sumption and 15,000 export aro much more likely than the
figures we have given.
Now for the reasons of our faith in a large American
crop. Present estimates vary from one and a half to three
millions of bales. The former estimates we dismiss, deem-
ing them as visionary as were our accounts a year ago of
this year's 'supplies. The six American crops of 1856-61
aggregated 21,764,663 bales, averaging thus per annum
3,627,440 bales. A three-fourths crop would therefore be
about 2,700,000 bales. The danger from spring frost we
may put entirely out of the question, the latest spring
frost that occurred since 1840 being on April 29, and
although we must expect the usual accounts of " broken
levees" by floods, "army worm," " boll worm," &c, &c.,
they aro likely to bo only gentle irritants to keep the ex-
citement alive and not of serious import.

We are not prepared to believe that the negro will not
work as well as he did in bondage, nor do we think that
after matters settle under the new system free labour will
bo found more expensive than slave 'labour. Cotton now
is being grown on the Southern plantations, and cotton
alone in many places, so that the labour that was expended
'formerly on cereals is now available. _Be it remembered
that cotton growing is very different from making sugar.
In this the work is at times oppressive in the extreme, and
no argument can be drawn against the American negro
working in the cotton fields because our West India
negroes would not work on the sugar plantations. By
the United States official returns the negro hands em-
ployed in growing cotton were 787,500 out of a population
of 1,915,000, which was the number of slaves in 1852 in
the Slave States proper, i.e., in South Carolina, Georgia,
Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, and Arkansas.
This gives eight mineteenths of the slaves at cotton, the
rest being employed growing rice, sugar, and tobacco and
as house servants. The average increase of negroes
in the cotton Slave States was as nearly as possible
3 per cent. per annum, taking the run of twenty years ;
and we make the following estimate of available labour in
the present year.
By the United States official returns the number of
slaves in the cotton States iu 1860 and 2,422,364, was in
the other States, not cotton-growing, 1,530,437. In these,
however, the increase was only on an average of years one
per cent. Calculating from 1860 to 1865, the natural in-
crease would thus have been :—Cotton States, 363,351;
non-cotton-growing, 76,500 = 449,850 —say 450,000. Now
let us concede that the war swept away all this natural
increase, and allow another 100,000 swept away entirely
from the cotton-growing black population, and this would
still leave us In the cotton States this year, say 2,320,000.
The same proportion as in 1852 employed on cotton would
give 977,000, but we are very safe to put it at 1,000,000.
What will these produce? Of old a good field hand was
capable of growing eight bales of cotton (ten bales have
often been done) and food besides. The following is a fair
estimate of field hands in 100 :
Able-bodied field hands ... 82 = 32 •
Age, 16 to 20, equal to three
quarter hands ... 12 = 8
Age, 14 to 16, equal to
half hands 10 = 5
Balance, say under 12 and
superannuated (fit only
for weeding, do.) 46 = 0

100 45 percent.
So that on a very moderato calculation wo have only 45
per cent., or 450,000 full hand; equal to eight bales each,
or 3,600 bales.

By the census returns in 1850 there were 551,000 willies
working in the fields in the cotton States. In Texas and
Arkansas free labour has turned out often two bales to the
acre, but 1 will take the calculation at ono bale and a
quarter. In Texas a man with ono assistant has found he
could easily attend to forty acres, twenty of them being in
corn. The twenty acres in cotton would yield at least
twenty-five bales, and taking a most moderato estimate,
wo think that the labour of white men iu the cotton States
cannot be reckoned at less than 100,000 full hands, which,
at eight bales, will yield 800,000, and, added to the black
labour growth, bring the crop up to 4,400,000. The *cfop
may quite possibly reach this, but, wo cannot poisiblY be-
lieve in less than 3,000,000 bales.
It is nonsense to say white men cannot work in the
cotton fields. They have done so in Texas mcst success-
fully, and as to the negro, when he was a slave and put to
task, ho often finished his days' work by two o'clock.

As to cost of labour : when cotton yielded the planter
10 cents a field hand cost $1,500 ; interest was 8 per cent.;
insurance, 2 per cent. ; food, clothes, and doctor, $9O a
year ; in all, $240. Now the planters have no old worn-
out workers to support and no children, and have their
capital untouched by the original investment in the labourer.
If they nett 12 cents, they can therefore well afford to keep
the labourer and pay him 12 dollars a month, and at this
price of 6d., cotton, including the duty, 21d., should be sold
in Liverpaol at 10.1. per lb. All prognostications as to
cotton must at present be grounded on hypotheses, but wo
believe our views will be fully borne out by results.

NOT PARTICULAR.—WhiIe returning from the
Peninsula in 1862, General Magtudor and his staff stopped
at the house of a widow lady on the road and engaged
dinner. In a few moments, Jem Phelps, a Louisiana soldier
accosted her with—" Madam, can I get dinner ?" " Yes,
sir," was tbo answer, "but as / am preparing dinner fcr
General Magruder and staff, and have not room at my
table for any more, you will have to wait for a second
table. " Very well, madam, thank you," said Phelps,
taking , a seat in a position to command a view of
the dining room. Watching the movements of
the servants, Phelps waiting until the feast was
oa the table, and who.o the hostess proceeded to
the parlour to announce dinner to tho general and his
staff, Phelps entered the dining-room, and seating him-
self at the table waited fin ibex- developments. Upon the
entrance of the party of officers, there were found to be
seats for all but one, and one politely returned to the
parlour to wait. The . general took a seat nest Phelps,
and after the first course was finished, turning to Phelps,
he inquired. "Sir, have you any idea with whom you are
dining ?" "No, sir," coolly replied Phelps, "I used to be
particular, but since 1 ..turned soldier, I don't care a
curse who I eat with, so the Victuals aro clean."