The Sun.
London, England, 1869-06-14 00:00:00

TRADE AND FINANCE

The ann yancements of constant failures throughout the
manufacturing districts shew the great dulness that still
exists in trade. This week some prominent firms have
gone, and it is stated that the failure will affect other
firms, and that thus a considerable number of hands
will be thrown out of employment. Although
this must be productive of great immediate
distress to the operatives, there is no doubt that,
so far at least as the cotton trade is concerned, con-
sumption cannot be too much restricted. We are, there-
fore, inclined to look upon the shutting up of the mills
with more complacency than we otherwise should, as we
feel convinced that such a course will be for the ultimate
good of the trade.
The course of the cotton trade has been a matter of sur-
prise to everyone interested in it. It is very evident that
great difference of opinion exists between the producers of
cotton and the ultimate consumers of it as to its present
value, and until this great discrepancy is done away with
no return of activity can be looked for in the trade. For
a long time after the American Civil War the question as
to the supply and probable value of cotton at Liverpool
was very problematical. Accordingly the heavy ship-
nients of manufactured goods made to foreign
markets were readily disposed of at very satisfactory
prices, native consumers being convinced that if
prices did not go higher the rates then current would at
least be maintained. In course of time, however, the
markets again became re-stocked, and it was soon disco-
vered that the supply of goods available was more than
sufficient to meet all immediate wants. Purchases were
accordingly made more cautiously, and the quotations
abroad gradually receded until, as has been the case for
some time past, goods could be purchased abroad at a leas
figure than they could be laid down in Manchester. This
arose, after all, from the most natural causes. The spinner
at Manchester looked for his standard of prices to the pro-
bable supply of cotton at Liverpool and the course of the
quotations there, while the native consumer in the East as
naturally took the basis of the available supplies of goods
immediately on the spot or on passage. And there is
no doubt that both were right, and had things taken
their usual course the event would have proved far
otherwise than it has been. Consumption has been
restricted within the narrowest limits, owing chiefly to the
adverse times upon which we have fallen, and to the fact
that mercantile profits, both at home and abroad, have
been reduced to a minimum. The great distrust which
has been the characteristic of the interval that has elapsed
since the closing of the " Corner House" has materially
affected all branches of trade, and has checked speculation
in all descriptions of produce. We fully believe that, while
profits have been less, they have been more secure,
but the savings of the people generally have been very
small, and the amount of money available for articles of
clothing and luxury has accordingly been greatly dimi-
nished.
In point of fact, it is a great question whether, looking
at the relative proportion of the supply of cotton at
Liverpool, and the extent of the consumptive demand,
whether the present range of quotations is not considerably
higher than the cicutnstances of the case warrant.
Apparently such is the truth of the case, but the changes
in the aspect of the market have recently been such as to
lead to the inference that a considerable decline must soon
take place in the value of the raw material, the addition
to the stock since the Ist of April being about 70,000
bales, while there is an excess of the quantity at least over
last year of 53,000 bales.
A good cotton crop would go far to obviate all present
difficulties, but there is reason to believe that the present
yield will not be greatly in excess of last year. Opinion
in America points to 3,000,000 bales as the probable out-
turn, but this is certainly. an outside figure. The position
of the Southern planters is certainly satisfactory so far as
pecuniary matters are corcerned, as last year's crop
was raised at a minimum of cost, and was
held at very remunerative prices. This year, how-
ever, the freedmen are in a more independent position,
and have shewn very little disposition to turn out into the
fields. This is a difficulty that threatens to become
chronic in the Southern labour market. After an unpro-
fitable year, when common adversity has drawn freedmen
and planters into closer dependence upon one another,
labour contracts will be secured on advantageous terms.
But in times of prosperity there will always
he a difficulty in getting the negro to work, and
it is only natural that he should advance his terms
for his labour in proportion to the competition for
it. With regard to the crop itself, a larger area of land
appears to have been placed under cultivation this year ;
but, so far, the weather has not proved favourable, and
the plant is decidedly backward. The planters appear te
have resorted largely to the use of fertilisers instead of
opening up virgin soil. There is, therefore, read
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believe that not only will the c backwF
season, but that it has cost a greater.
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