The Sun.
London, England, 1860-05-22 00:00:00

outer as expedition, but we did not know whether that ex-
pedition would end in a warlike or an amicable way—a ques-
tion, indeed, which I could answer 20 minutes ago from pri-
vate information only. The noble lord's sheer, therefore,
'Was quite uncalled for. No doubt an expedition was or-
dered to be prepared, and some of your lordships seem to
think that we did not provide for the expense of that expe-
dition. That was not the case. Last year there was taken
a vote of credit for £550,000, and this year a similar vote of
£500,000 was put in the estimates. In addition
to this the army estimates include, for the pur-
poses of the Chinese expedition, a sum of £454,000,
and the navy estimates a sum of £680,000, forming altoge-
ther as nearly as possible a sum of £2,500,000 provided for
that expedition. (Hear, hear.) Do your lordships
think that it would have been wise to make an
enormous provision on that account ? We have generally
'been accustomed to do too much in that direction. What
was the case in the Crimean war ?—That we so much ex-
ceeded what was necessary for the purposes of the e or that
ended by paying back £1,600,000 into the Exchequer. If
there is any one principle in finance which appears to me to
be sound and indisputable, it is that you should either have
a war budget or a peace budget. If your have a war budget,
everything is exceptional ; but if you have a peace budget,
it should be founded upon peace principles to this extent.
If there is any danger, if there is any cloud upon the hori-
zon it rests with the responsible Government to provide
those armaments, those numbers of men on land and at sea,
and those stores which may, in their opinion, be necessary
to provide against contingencies, and also to provide for the
raising of the sums of money required to meet the expen-
diture occasioned by such preparations; but if you go be-
yond that, and take large and undefined sums for large and
indefinite contingencies, you act contrary to sound princi-
ples, and you become liable to this great and practical in-
convenience,—that if, fortunately, you should be disap-
pointed in your fears, you have a sum of one, two, three, or
four millions, whichever it may be, which, according to
the spirit of the law, should, at the end of the year, be ap-
plied to the reduction of the national debt. Now, I ask
your lordships wht ther it would have been wise at the be-
ginning of the year, when you were asking for an enormous
revenue of an almost unprecedented character, to burden
the people with additional taxes, the product of which
might possibly be applied merely to the discharge of debt ?
(Hear, hear.) My lords, lam aware of no other charge of
improvidence which can be made against the original bud-
get; but it may be said that since its publication circum-
stances have altered. (Hear, hear.) I know of one cir-
cumstance, which I will mention, and which tells against
me in this argument ; other matters have been referred to
as to .which we were infornied at the time the budget was
framed, and which were amply provided for. There was
the question of fortifications. A commission had been
appointed to inquire what was necessary to be done
to defend our principal arsenals. We knew of the re-
port of that commission when the budget was framed;
we know of it now, and I am happy tq say that we
have at last got all the collateral information which will
enable her Majesty's Government to come to a decision
upon it. Well, one of these things will happen—either we
shall reject that report, and the finances will be completely
untouched, except as regards the large and unusual sum
taken for current purposes of fortification ; or we shall
adopt it in one of two ways. If we adopt it and come upon
the current revenue to provide the means necessary for car-
rying it out it is clear that it will require a greater provision
than the £BOO,OOO included in the estimates, or than the
51,500,000 which my noble friend stated to the deputation
the other day was the amount of revenue which he was
going to save the country—and really when the noble lord
undertakes to teach the Government their duty, it is no
light matter to state estimates at half a million more than
their actual:amount; if, on the other hand, we determine to
adopt the report, and to borrow money for the purpose of
carrying out its recommendations, then the large vote for
fortifications which is already before the House of Commons
is sufficient, at any rate, to pay the interest of the money
which will be required during the present year. Since the
month of February the question of the China war has re-
mained in the same position in which it then stood, and
until this afternoon we could not tell whether there would
be peace or war ; nay, we now know nothing more, except
that from the tenour of a private telegram, there is reason
to fear that hostilities are likely to take place. We cannot,
however, tell whether the war will be short and successful,
and therefore rather a benefit to the finances of next year
than otherwise, in consequence of the indemnity to be ob-
tained from China, or whether it will be prolonged over
next year, and therefore require a budget for war. I am now
going to state the circumstances that tell against me. The
estimated surplus amounted to £460,000 0 wing to there
being an error in the calculations of one of the departments
of the revenue amounting to £230,000, and to the abandon-
ment of taxes to the amount of £lBO,OOO, that surplus is
very nearly gone. (Hear, hear, from Lord Grey.) I am
glad to hear my noble friend cheer iet a more cheerful man,
ner this time—(a laugh)—but has my noble friend any rea-
son to suppose that it is a perfectly unusual circumstance
that during the passage of a budget through the Houses of
Parliament the surplus should disappear? I think that
if he will refer to the records of our proceedings he will
find a great many instances in which that has
occurred without the Government thinking it necessary
to modify their financial proposals in eonsequence. I will
give an instance. In the year 1853 the estimated surplus,
and more than the estimated surplus, utterly disappeared
before the financial measures were passed through this
House. I remember'that two noble earls opposite opposed
in the strongest language the remission of the soap duties.
They pointed to the probability of our becoming engaged in
war with Russia, and said that under such circumstances
they could not allow such a Bill to pass. (" Hear, hear,"
from the ,Opposition benches.) But they did allow it to
pass, and partly upon my representation. I begged them
not to alarm the country, not to disturb the trade of the
country, but to leave the responsibility where it ought to
fall until you turn out the Ministry—upon Her Majesty's
Executive Government ; and what was the result ? Why,
at the end of that very year you had a surplus of £3,500,000.
(Cheers.) And will any one tell me that when the Russian
war did arrive, and two successive Governments had to
appeal to the people of this country, they found them less
able or less willing to give the lavish supplies which were
asked of them, because the year before we had remitted
taxes which reseed upon the trade and commerce of the
country ? (tree; bear.) My lords, Ido not know whether
or not my noble friend will cheer what I am going to say,
but I am authorised by those most competent to form an
opinion to state that, looking at the principles upon which
the estimates of revenue and expenditure for the year have
been prepared, looking at the fact that on the 31st of March
of this year there was a surplus of one million and a quar-
ter which was not taken into account in the financial state-
ment of February, and looking at the fact that the balances
are now two millions higher than they were at the same
period of last year, although at the end of that year then'
was a surplus ofa million and a quarter—taking all these'
circumstances into consideration, they see no danger of
any deficiency in the revenue of the present year. (Cheers.)
I now come to the question of a prospective deficiency. In
very quiet times there is no great objection—although it is
a now system, and one which sprung up with the income-
tax—to making prospective arrangements ; but when you
have to deal with very uncertain circumstances the
adoption of such a course is utterly impossible. The
noble earl, in that speech to which I have already al-
luded, said that if Her Majesty's Government could show
that there would not be a deficiency of two millions
next year he would not vote for the motion of my
noble friend. lam afraid that I have no chance of obtdn-
ing his vote, because I utterly decline to make any estimate
for next year. There would be no safety in doing so. No
doubt if you compare the two years, allowing for the loss
of taxation by the expiration of laws, what with the arrears
of the malt and hop duty and other fallings-off, there will
be a deficiency of two millions ; but if you take the nominal
increase of revenue, and add to that the increase which has
always arisen upon any large remission of taxation, though
I make no estimate of what that may be, yet past experi-
ence shows that it is impossible to put it at less than a
million, and when you add to that the £250,000 saved by
the falling in of the Long Annuities, your deficiency,
without going into any other calculation, instead of being
c 2,000,000, will be reduced to somethic g like £750,000. I
saw it stated in a leading article of the Tunes the otherday,
that my noble friend the noble baron (Lord Monteagle) is
the pivot upon which the British constitution turns. I
was not aware of the fact before, and I venture to th nk, for
reasons which I will state, that he is not even the pivot
upon which this question turns. My noble friend is well
acquainted with financial subjects. Formerly a Chancellor
of the Exchequer himself, he has great knowledge and
great love of finance, and has been in the habit of bringing
his, views upon it before your lordships, as it was natural
that he should do ; but with regard to the conduct of this
house as a house my noble friend is nothing more than any
other able and distinguished individual among your lord-
ships who sometimes takes part in your debates. lie has
no pretensions to lead a great party; he can only attract
those whom his reasoning, his arguments, and his eloquence
convince. With respect to the noble earl opposite (Earl
Derby) the case is entirely different. I was surprised that,
in addressing the deputation to which I have so often re-
ferred he seemed to dwell upon a distinction which he
supposed to arise from the motion for the rejection of this
bill being made, not by himself,but by the noble baron. Why
surely this is not so insignificant a question that the noble
earl was waiting to see whether or not some independent
mem-
ber of your lordships' house took it up lie must have had
in his own mind clear views as to whether it was of sutit
importance for him to undertake it himself, or whether
he should leave it entirely loose. Well, my lords, I have
the greatest possible admiration for the ability the
character, and the position of the noble earl ; I am no;
sera
that I have not almost been wanting in good taste in too
often alluding to the admiration which I have felt for those
qualities ; but that feeling is'not without exception. I have
the greatest respect for his gifts and attainments, but there
is one gift which he does not possess. That one gift is the
gift of prophecy, which no human being will say he pos.
Sessis. He has indulged in prophecies with regard to trade,
navigation, and almost every question of finance ; and in
every instance his predictions have been signally unlucky.
I have alluded to the alarm he expressed with respect to the
remission of the soap duties. In the same year another
question arose. My right hon, friend Mr. Gladstone has