The Sun.
London, England, 1848-01-03 00:00:00

THE ZOLLVEREIN -PROTEC-
TION VERSUS FREE TRADE.

(Continued from The Sun of Saturday.)
Now, to consider the second question--" Will the
means lead to the desired end ? will differential
duties increase the direct trade ?" It cannot be in-
tended to force matters to the highest point, and to
require, for instance, that Bremen instead of being
content with the former 92 per cent. of her direct
imports of tobacco, or Hamburgb, instead of resting
satisfied with the former 92 per cent., of her direct
sugar imports, should in future fetch the remaining
8 per cent. also from trans-Atlantic countries. It can-
not be the intention entirely to exclude all indirect
trade, for thin it would be much more simple to
prohibit it at once. It is therefore simply a
question as to the greater or less probability
that differential duties would :cause a con-
siderable increase in the direct importation of
some one or other commodity. In order to judge of
such probabilities, it is necessary to enter into many
details, which may however again be limited to the
principal:trans-Atlantic productions, not only because,
according to the declared views of most of -the advo-
cates of the system, it is on these articles only that
the additional duties ought to be imposed, but because
they in fact preponderate so much over all other arti-
cles, that what is applicable to them must be consi-
dered as the measure of the whole question. We have
further to consider with regard hereto, how, accord-
ing to what has been said above, differential duties are
to be made to operate against the importation of non-
European produce from England and the Netherlands,
from France and Belgium, from Spain and Portugal.
Such importations from the Peninsula and from
France, with the exception of the cotton imports from
Havre, are so insignificant at present, that they may
be left entirely out of the question ; there remains,
therefore, only Great Britain, Holland, and Belgium.
It is, above all, the Netherlands whose commercial
policy gives the Germans cause for complaint, and
against whom differential duties are to be particularly
directed. It is indeed not to be denied that the
amount of German goods carried by Holland*
across the Ocean, stand in no proportion to the mass
of colonial produce which Germany imports indirectly
from the Netherlands. Of the 9,500,0001 b. of coffee
which were in 1845 imported into Hamburgh from
European ports, nearly 6,000,0001b5. came from the
Netherlands. This was all, no doubt, Java coffee.
Thirteen per cent. also of the coffee imports into
Bremen from European ports, was most likely
Java coffee, imported from the Netherlands. Of
the 45,000 cwt. of coffee brought to Stettin from
European ports, not German, 43,000 came from
the Netherlands, independent of the importa-
tions by means of Rhine and by land. That Java
coffee so seldom comes direct from Java to German
ports, is to be ascribed to the commercial laws of the
Netherlands,- which impose an export duty of five
florins per pecul on all exports of coffee from Java to
foreign ports, whilst Dutch ships, which must give
security that they will really take their cargoes to
Holland, only have to pay two florins. Here again
we must start from the supposition (which shall be
more fully explained in the sequel) that Germany
will not be able to produce any change in the co-
lonial policy of the Netherlands, so that in every
case to impose a differential duty on the indirect im-
portation of coffee from the Netherlands into Ger-
many will be the same as imposing a differential duty
on Java coffee in general; and the question is, there-
fore, whether the imposition of such duty would
materially increase the direct importation of other
kinds of coffee.

If we consider how indispensable Java coffee is
for Germany, the question is at once answered in the
negative. The reason why it must be considered in-
dispensable is to be sought partly in its peculiar
qualities, partly in the immense quantity of it which
is already required for the consumption of the states
of the Zollverein. Experience teaches us that wherever
this coffee, which in delicacy of flavour surpasses most
American and particularly Brazilian coffee, is known,
it soon supplants even the cheaper sorts of the latter.
The small number of American colonies which pro-
duce coffee equal to the Java, and even superior to it,
will nevertheless not be able to furnish a substitute
for it, as their production is so very limited. The
proposed differential duties would, therefore, in all
probability, serve to increase the price, but not to dimi-
nish the consumption of Java coffee, which is even now
considerably on the increase, notwithstanding the
high price at which it is held. We must also remem-
ber that a difference of two Prussian dollars in duty,
is, for instance, not equal to a difference of two Prus-
sian dollars in price for the increased freight of the
favoured national ships, the rise in price which would
take place in the producing American countries, owing
to the artificial measures resorted to by us, and per •
haps also the cost of transport from those more distant
countries, would considerably reduce the former two
Prussian dollars. Besides, it is a question whether,
independent of quality, II Satisfactory gilbatitUt• as to
quality could be found. Regarding the consump-
tion of Java coffee in Germany, we have indeed no
exact returns ; according to the notices in
Table 11., it may, however, be calculated to
amount to between 50,000,000 and 60,000,000
pounds, which are partly imported through Belgium
and Holland, partly through the ports of the North
Sea and the Baltic. If this immense quantity should
at once be excluded from Germany, we can, in truth,
not conceive whence a substitute could be derived, as
the production of the American countries has never
yet exceeded the yearly consumption. Table XI.
gives further particulars as to the proportions between
the production and the consumption of coffee. Brazil
supplies 160,000,000, Java 130,000,000, all other
producing countries together only 135,000,000 lbs. ;
the colonial product of Holland thus also, in regard
to quantity, exercises a most decisive influence as to
price. The unprecedentedly low coffee prices are
entirely owing to the enormous supplies furnished by
the Dutch East India colonies, and the year 1846
furnishes us with an example, that merely the tem-
porary reserve of the abundance of Java coffee, by
the Handelsmaatchappy, sufficed to raise the price
of every kind of coffee from fifteen to twenty per
cent. If we further consider that in general,
but more particularly in the Zollverein countries,
the consumption of coffee increases considerably every
year, and in a far greater proportion than the produc-
tion out of Java, and that such an increase of produc-
tion in the American countries as would be required
to satisfy the demand created in Germany by the ex-
clusion of Java coffee, could not be expected to take
.place, particularly as it is dependent on &c, many con-
ditions, such as the productive.powers of the soil, and
also that it is restrained by the circumstance that coffee
plantations do not yield a full crop before the fourth
or fifth year, we must allow that with regard to
quantity, Java coffee is indispensable; unless, indeed,
we would run the risk of allowing the prices of coffee
in general to rise to such a height in Germany as
would considerably reduce the consumption, and thus
equally injure the public and the trade. To
the Netherlands the result of this measure might
indeed be an increased sale, if, for instance, in conse-
quence of the increased consumption of American
(toffee, in the German countries on the Rhine, the
supplies of these sorts of coffee in the north German
man ports should be diminished and enhanced in price,
and the Scandinavian countries and Russia, which
have hitherto not consumed great quantities of Java
coffee, should thereby be:induced to adopt this more
delicately flavoured coffee ; or if, which is of still
greater importance, the consumption of Java coffee in
North America should be increased. In addition to
this the very excess of the additional duty might be
the means of rendering it ineffectual ; for (supposing
that the produce of countries out of Europe are only
to be subject to the differential duty when imported
from European ports) to avoid the duty it would only
be necessary to bring the coffee to Germany by the
circuitous route via North Arnerica4
From all that we have said concerning coffee, it
does, indeed, result that the differential duties, if
low, would prove inefficient, and if high, would
operate injuriously ; yet with regard to the first ob-
ject proposed and directed against the Netherlands,
they nevertheless, succeed in
a,
might,diminishing the
, and in
ports
imports of this article from English.
bringing a few more cargoes directly into our
-
The iraports from England are, however, as it is,
Tory inconsiderable, and are yearly decreasing in
amount, and the introduction of so stringent a mea-
sure as the imposition of differential duties could
hardly be justified on the plea of so insignificant a
result.
As regards raw sugar the case is reversed. This
commodity we receive in greater quantities from
English than from Dutch ports, and the indirect im-
ports, which are at present proportionately. not very
considerable, will probably increase in future,
should the new facilities lately granted to this
trade in England (namely, the unimpeded ad-
mission of slave-grown sugar into that country),
occasion an unusual supply of sugar, and a consequent
glutting of the English markets. Should it, however,
then, as it is now, in many cases, still be more advan-
tageous for the German sugar-refiners to purchase
their supplies of the raw materials in those markets,
instead of supplying themselves with that which is
imported direct, it cannot certainly be intended to
introduce artificial measures to deprive the refiners of
this adrrantage, and to raise the price of the raw ma-

* That Holland herself, with her wealthy population,
accustomed to every luxury, and having no considerable
manufactures of her own, consumes a great amount of
German manufactures, is generally, though improperly,
overlooked.
f An additional duty, for instance, of only two Prus-
sian dollars per 1001bs. would amount to 80 marks banco
on one ton of 2,0001b5., whilst the freight from Holland
to North America, and back to Hamburgh, would
amount to 42 marks banco, the insurance (at three per
cent.) to 15 marks banco, and the loss of interest for six
months to 12 marks banco, making together 69 marks
banco; and thus by taking the coffee by this circuitous
and unnatural route a profit of 11 marks banco might be
secured.

terial, without giving them some prospect of compen
sation ; for it cannot be supposed that the increase of !
direct trade with,the trans-Atlantic countries will effect '
an increased sale of their manufacture. This, is how-
ever, exclusively a question of the interests of the
sugar refiners, for raw sugar is, in the Zollverein
countries, not, like coffee, an article of general trade,
but is almost exclusively in the hands of the refiners,
who are favoured by a remission on the duty.
These remarks, which do indeed afford an im-
mediate answer to the question as to whether
the new system would increase the direct trade,
yet are not misplaced here, in as far as they
justify the assumption that, in case the new project
were really to be put into execution, raw materials
in
general, and thus also raw sugar, would be likely to
be exempted from additional duties. This seems in-
deed to be the most judicious plan, because the in-
direct importations of these articles in general take
place only under. some particularly favourable con-
junctures, promising unusual profits ; as a general
rule, the supplies, and particularly those for the most
extensive sugar manufactories, are drawn from the
direct imports. With regard to sugar, therefore, the
differential duties would either be superfluous, or
would operate injuriously.
As to cotton, another no less important raw mate-
rial, the great quantities have hitherto reached Ger-
many indirectly, the importations to Bremen excepted,
which have hitherto been almost exclusively from
North America, and have been brought direct. But
in the German cotton mills Surat cotton is used
in
great quantities ; and should the differential duties
not amount to prohibitve duties, the greater part of
this would still be drawn from England, at least for
some years to come. Altogether it will be some time
before the German manufacturer will be able to dis-
pense with the great English market, as the differen-
tial duties will hardly be able at once to create a sub-
stitute for it in the north sea ports of Germany. We
must not suppose that the effect of these duties will
be immediately to bring such large supplies from
Nortli.America (which country is by no means at a
loss to dispose of her cotton) as would bring down the
price in the German ports so low as they perhaps are
in Liverpool, and even in Havre. Years must pass
ere such a market can be created as the Liverpool
cotton market. Table XII. will show how far the
Bremen market is from being equal to it, notwith-
standing the comparatively great amount of direct
importations into that port. This table shows that
the total amount of cotton imported into Bremen last
year was 12,000 bales ; into Hamburgh, 60,000
bales; and into Liverpool, 1,139,000 bales. There-
fore, should even the German demand for raw cotton
continue for a long time to increase in the same gra-
tifying manner as it has hitherto done, it will always
be of subordinate importance when compared to the
immense mass of the material required for English
industry; and for this reason alone the supplies will in
suture, as well as now, be concentrated there. How
injurious it would be to our manufacturing industry
should this market of the world be closed against it,
will be more fully dwelt upon hereafter : here we
mean merely to make the remark, that the Govern-
ments of Germany which have made so many just
efforts to promote the interests of our native manu-
factories, would most probably prefer to exempt
cotton, which is already exempt from duty, from the
differential duties also ; wherefore the proposed
system would not occasion an increase of direct
imports. Moreover, we must here observe, that not
only does the consumption of raw cotton in general
regularly increase in Germany (vide Table VIII. for
llamburgh), but that the direct importation of this
article also regularly progresses, it having gradually
risen in Hamburgh, from 1832 till 1845,# from 38 to
55 per cent. of the total importation; that, further
the cotton importations of Hamburgh, and particu-
larly of twist, may even now be called pretty consi-
derable, when compared with the importations into
most of the English ports (excepting Liverpool) ;
and, finally, that American cotton is mostly imported
direct into Hamburgh as well as Bremen, whilst the
importations of the same article from European
countries are mostly the produce of the colonies of
those countries (vide Table XII.)
In indigo the proportion borne by the direct trade,
is the least favourable. There came upon the whole
6,400 chests of this article to Hamburgh in 1846 ;
and of these only 200 came direct from the producing
country. Here, perhaps, the differential duties might
increase the direct imports; but even putting aside
the consideration, that owing to the comparatively
small bulk of this article, a considerable increase in
the number of vessels trading direct would not be
effected, it is still a question whether German indus-
try would not be more injured by the measure than
the two foreign countries, as the most and the best
indigo comes from India ; and we should hardly find
the inferior product of Guatemela and Caraccas a
satisfactory substitute for the indigo of the Dutch
and English colonies, which would be excluded by
the duties. The new system would thus probably,
uselessly raise the price of this raw material, so in-
dispensable to our manufactures, unless it were de-
termined that this article also should be withdrawn
from its influence.

Again, dye-woods and hides are raw materials to
be used in our manufactures, and therefore all at-
tempts at interfering with their direct importation
would act mischievously, and would besides be super-
fluous, as these articles are also (vide Table VIII.),
for the most part, already imported direct. That this
is still more the case with regard to tobacco has been
shown above. Rice is, therefore, the only one of the
more important colonial products that remains to be
mentioned. There are two sorts only that are of im-
portance—Java rice and Carolina rice, and these two
differ much as to quality. The latter is more an
article of luxury, and is consumed by the rich ; while
the former is with the less wealthy classes an article
of common food. An attempt to supplant the Dutch
colonial rice by American rice would, therefore, be
useless, on account of the difference of price, which is
so great that it would exceed the difference of duty ;
and, besides, experience has shown us that rice, when
driven up in price beyond a certain point, as was the
case during the recant scarcity, owing to the failures
of the corn and potato crops in Europe, finds no sa-
tisfactory market in the interior of Germany. Here
also the question intrudes itself upon us, whether it
would be wise, by additional duties, to raise the
price of an article which may at least serve as a
substitute for thsi, daily food of the population of
Germany.
It has been, we hope, satisfactorily proved by this
inquiry as to the several articles of commerce, that
with regard to some differential duties would be su-
perfluous, and that with regard to others they would be
inapplicable, or, if applied, would prove useless, inas-
much as they would not produce any considerable in-
crease in the direct importations from non-European
countries. But the statistical materials of which we
have availed ourselves for this purpose also offer the
means of drawing some comparisons with regard
to Belgium, where differential duties were introduced
some years ago, in order to favour direct importation.
In adopting these measures, the Belgian Government
particularly held in view the trade with the Brazils ;
yet it is shown by table IX. that in the year 1845
there was imported direct from the Brazils to Ant-
werp 79,553 bags of coffee, and in the last year
only 58,047 bags ; whilst the direct importations
from the Brazils into Hamburgh, and particularly
into Trieste, have increased from year to year. Table
XIII. shows the proportion in which the direct im-
portations of Belgium stand generally to,those of the
Hanse Towns ; but in looking at the numbers, as in
general, in comparing the statistical accounts of the
commerce of one country with those of another, the
manner of taking the estimates must be taken into
account. Whilst, for instance, in Hamburgh (Bre-
men, &c.), the value is given according to the market
prices, in Belgium, France, and Holland it is based
on a customary official valuation, which leads to many
errors, and particularly causes the value; of the ex-
ports and imports to appear too high. Table XIIIa.
proves this with regard to Belgium.
From the circumstances which we have just exa-
mined, it results that the second question, whether
differential duties are likely to effect any considerable
increase in the direct import trade, may without hesi-
tation be negatived like the first, as to whether such
means are required in Germany to attain such an end.
There thus remains only the third question, whether
the means proposed are not more dangerous than the
end to be obtained could be useful.
The benefits to be derived from an increase of
direct importations from countries out of Europe
(leaving the shipping interest out of view), are sup-
posed to consist in an increased sale of German pro-
ductions (of which more will be said hereafter), and
in what is usually denominated our being made inde-
pendent of other European markets. Now the ad-
vantage of such independence is in itself not quite clear.
The question might easily be raised as regards two
commercial countries, whether, in many instances, the
or selling should not be more
dcoepuenntrdyenptroondutchigen
country consuming and purchasing,
than the reverse. As a rule, in cases of extensive
commerce sellers are more easily found than buyers;
at all events, there is a difference grounded in the
nature of the goods which cannot be mistaken. Ger-
many is, for instance, certainly not more unfavourably
situated with regard to her dependence on the English
cotton and indigo markets, than England is with regard
to her dependence on the German corn and cattle
exports—namely, in as far as we are treating of
extreme cases, such as war and famine, and the prohi-
bition of exports caused thereby. In the usual course
of things, however, this so-called dependence is of
very little importance; the self-interest of the other
party protects the dependent party from wrong, and
the real bond which unites them is their mutual ad-
vantage. A trade by which neither party gains is
soon brought to a conclusion, without the aid of any
fiscal regulations; but if it bring profits to both, why
disturb it by customs laws?
Here we must request that we may not be misun-

* The year 1831, in which particular conjectures
reigned, is not here taken into account.