The Sun.
London, England, 1870-11-18 00:00:00

METROPOLITAN GOSSIP.-THURSDAY.

Whilst we were all speculating as to what General
Aurelles de Paladine would do next week, after his
victory, came an intimation of interest which completely
throws the war into the shade. The Russian
circular has created a fever of excitement
which each day's news serves to strengthen. Most people
knew, indeed, that some move of the kind would come
sooner or later. But the method adopted by Prince
Gortschakoff, the tone of his missive, are unpardonably,
alarmingly, insolent. It surpasses any of Bismarck's per-
formances, is not unworthy of Menschikoff, and may
justly be classed for barefaced immorality with that
neat announcement by which the Ecuador Government
some time ago made itself famous—to wit, that the
inability of a State to pay its debts furnishes an excel-
lent reason for repudiating them altogether. It is not
to be supposed that such a document would be
issued to the world unless Russia were prepared to go
great lengths. There can be no doubt of Russia and
Prussia working together in this affair. It has been said
that no treaty between the two Powers is in existence ;
but, though I do not profess to know anything on this
point, it is certain that an excellent understanding has
been come to. When the war with France broke out
Austria was arming, and apparently watching her oppor-
tunity. Prussia applied to Russia for the meahs to
keep this formidable southern neighbour in check. The
tearing up of the Treaty of Paris was the recompense
which Bismarck naturally offered, and which the Czar
naturally demanded. It was needful to make some
arrangement of the kind. Not only was a revision of the
Treaty acceptable to the Czar's Government, but it was
necessary to do something to satisfy public opinion in
Russia, which is vehemently opposed to Germany, and
public opinion is becoming a power even at St. Petersburg.
The fact that some affiance exists is in one way favour-
able to peace. The German Austrians will not lightly
hazard a war in which Prussia may join against them
and take the German provinces. On the other hand the
temptations to a war against Russia are very strong. Austria
has at all times an interest in repressing Russian advances.
Very little would have induced her to join in the war of
1854-5. Tha incentive is stronger now than then, for
Austria has ceased to be a German Power, and her
interest in repressing Russian influence among the Sclave
peoples is greater. The Hungarians are very
earnest in this policy. The Poles would be
delighted by a war, for is there not the
prospect for them, and, indeed, for Austria gene-
rally, of liberating Russian-Poland, and making
another powerful federalised Austrian State? This
magnificent prospect of retrieving late disasters cannot
fail to tempt Francis Joseph, averse though he is to war.
It is said that Austria does not desire to increase her
nationality difficulties. But she has already a Polish
difficulty, and the liberation of the down-trodden Russian
provinces is a not unpromising way of getting rid of it.
Moreover, there is the conviction that the
Austrian army, large, reorganised, and well in
. hand, could beat the Muscovite forces. With the
assistance of England and Turkey, it is difficult to ima-
gine how Russia alone could prevail. These considera-
tions do not necessarily infer a war. But it is clear that
very much depends on the exertions that England may
make to avoid a serious result. •
But for this Eastern question, something more, I have
reason for believing, would have been done to bring about
peace, notwithstanding the lamentable failure of M.
Thiers's visit to Versailles. The advisability of a joint
representation by the Powers was certainly under discus-
sion. The position of Austria, however, proved an in-
superable difficulty. Count Beust was willing enough
to embark in negotiations; but the Prussian
Government would have none of the Vienna
Cabinet's assistance. The ambiguous attitude as
sumed by Austria at the opening of the war led Count
Bismarck to meet the Vienna intervention proposal with
a rebuff which precluded all possibility of its repetition.
Many and powerful reasons tempted Francis Joseph's
Government to join France in July. The army was got
ready. A single French victory would, as Napoleon
himself believed, have brought about a march through
Bohemia. The victory, however, proved to be t,n the
other side. A telegram in this morning's papers says
that armistice negotiations have been reopened, but mere
rumour is the only authority for this statement.
The late negotiations have now sunk into obscurity.
If they merit a place in history at all, it
will be for the remarkable amount of " bulling" and
" bearing "to which they gave rise. The uncertainty
respecting the result lasted so long as to afford the Stock
Exchange operators an opportunity of rare attractiveness,
to which they did full justice. From the first proposal of
an armistice by the English Government to the beginning
of M. Thiers's enterprise about a week elapsed, and from
the journey to Versailles to the final rupture, another
week. During this period prices were sent up and down
with a facility rarely enjoyed even in Wall-street.
The final and complete settlement of an armis-
tice was announced at least once ; the imme-
diate probability of such a settlement more than
once. These unfounded reports were not mere Exchange
rumours; they came from some source so,apparently trust-
worthy as to induce the Times one morning to express the
utmost confidence in the issue of the negotiations. Yet
there never was any great hope of an armistice. M.
Thiers only reported himself as favourably impressed
with his first conference ; the second quite undeceived
him. _ _

--
The Edinburgh Review has quite equalled the success of
its rival, the Quarterly, and has reached its third edition.
The announcement about the Premier's article gave an
immediate impetus to the sale; the condemnation of the
Premier in the newspapers completed the good work.
But did Mr. Gladstone really write " Germany, France,
and England?" The evidence of the article itself is
strong, and it is scarcely probable that a question of such
importance would be permitted to remain unsettled, if Mr.
Gladstone were able to contradict the statement current
respecting him. Doubts are, however, ,freely expressed.
It is said that another member of the Government
wrote it, that his son wrote it, that the Premier wrote
some other article which he did not and could not write ;
and, finally, I am told a story, for which I cannot vouch,
though I have reasons for not disregarding it, to the effect
that the enfant terrible wished to publish such thoughts,
but desired the secret of their authorship to be kept even
from the editor and publisher, and that the truth was dis-
covered by accident. However this may be, the Germans
are thoroughly convinced that Mr. Gladstone is the writer,
and a fine time of abuse their j ournalists are having of it. They
call the article a bad one, in a literary sense. Whoever
may be the writer, it is certain that the composition, as a
literary work, is of a high order.
The task of estimating the military events of the period
I leave to your other contributors : but the moment seems
propitious for a feeble protest against the English style of
judging French affairs through Philistine spectacles. A
week ago the Army of the Loire was pronounced a myth ;
it has since given the Germans a palpable fright, and estab-
ilished its claim to at least respect. Great part of this
result is due no doubt to Aurelles de Paladine, but at
east as much is owing to Gambetta, whom our sharp-
sighted countrymen have derided as an idle visionary,
because he issues high-falutin proclamations. A friend of
mine, who has had opportunities of seeing Gambetta in
his new sphere, testifies to his ability and energy in prac-
tical affairs. He is a man whom fatigue never overcomes,
and whose capacty is equal alike to small details and
great principles. The facts speak for them-
selves. The Imperial disasters left France with
only a dozen regiments of the Line, of which some are
in Paris. Artillery, equipments, officers, and every mili-
tary requisite were wanting. TO prepare a
respectable force, 150,000 strong, out of the
rawest materials—men who had never handled a
rifle, and had never expected to quit their homes
—with cannon yet uncast and officers untrained, with a
nation profoundly depressed by misfortune, and one-
fourth of the country in tho hands of the enemy—sucb was
the task set Gambetta and the generals. When the
Republican Minister arrived at Tours he found a chaos.
Everything was in ' confusion. Everybody marked
him as their prey. The Red Revolutionists
wanted him to try a little energy of the Robespierre type ;
inventors desired him to try their plans for extinguishing
the Prussians wholesale ; quiet townspeople earnestly
wished him to make peace ; fathers and widows begged
him to let oft just their particular children from the
horrors of war. My friend tells me that on one occasion
a small farmer met the Minister on the staircase,
and laid two or three bags of money at his
feet. He had two sons whom he had bought
off from the conscription for the Line, but who
were, according to the rule, enrolled as Mobiles, and were
then with the army of the Loire. The father said the
money represented all his available wealth. Parting
with wealth is,most bitter to a French peasant. Yet he
waa willing to give it to ram= even one of the intended