The Sun.
London, England, 1870-07-25 00:00:00

PEACE OR WAR.

After all, the question of peace or war is to be decided
not by the wishes of the French Emperor, but by the
will of the French people. There is no doubt in any
reasonable mind that Napoleon threatens hostilities upon
perfectly insufficient grounds. There is no doubt that the
project of the elevation of a Prince of the house of Hohen-
zollern to the throne of Spain is merely the pretext which
he seizes for carrying out a long cherished project of
humiliating the rival power of North Germany and if
possible seizing the Rhenish provinces. Neither
abstract justice, nor present expediency, nor the
historical policy of his own realm, justifies
him in the course he now pursues. Is that
course to be followed to the dire extremity of war, or will
the Emperor permit a solution of the difficulty by the
means Which seems so obvious, namely, a rejection of
Prince Leopold by the only nation which really has a
right to prevent his choice ? The answer, as we have
said, must be found in the disposition of the French
people. The clamour for war is only in France. Prussia
is calm ; Spain is undisturbed. If the present outcry is
merely official bluster, it will soon come to an end. It
may have been intended to win a seeming victory
over Prussia by forcing the retirement of Prince
Leopold ; it may have been intended to stimulate
the flagging loyalty of the French people
by the prospect of military glory ; it may have been in-
tended as a sort of plebiscitum, to find out whether France
wanted war or not. Either supposition, in the present
situation of Napoleon 111., is a plausible one; and in either
case the determination must be close at hand. If it turn
out that there is in France a genuine popular aversion to
hostilities, peace is certain. If thepopular voice be for war,
the war can hardly be averted. Napoleon for years has
been drifting with a current which he dares not try to stem.
The most he can do is to keep his bark in the middle of the
stream. What the sentiment of the French people is
in this matter we' have as yet, but imperfect means of
judging. The debates in the Chambers might teach us
something, if we had them in full, but from the brief
messages of the Cable it is impossible to form a fair judg-
ment. The fluctuations of the Bourse are uncertain. So
far they indicate considerable uneasiness—as we might, of
course, expect—but not a general belief in war. The
best criterion of all is the press, and here the
cable haves us almost in the dark. The only
voices we are permitted to hear through the Atlantic
telegraph are those of the Liberte, Constitutionnel, Mons-
tear, and Pays. With the single exception of the first,
which is rather the individual organ of its editor than the
mouthpiece of any party, these papers are all more or less
devoted to the service of the Ministry. From the inde-
pendent and popular journals of France we have not
heard a word. This fact is significant. It does not prove
that France is opposed to the war, but it, is an indication
that the people at any rate are not inflamed with military
enthusiasm, and it is therefore a sign that peace is still
possible.—New York, Tribune of July 12.

EUROPEAN ARMIES AND THE PRESENT
CRISIS.

If the present crisis in Europe is productive of no other
result, we may at least be tolerably certain that it will
delay the removal of that curse of the States of the old
World—standing armies. No subject has been more fre-
quently discussed during the last twelve months than
the necessity for an agreement among the Great Powers
pointing to a general disarmament. It was only about a
week ago that we found the Liberals in the French Legis-
lative Assembly objecting to a vote for the
annual military contingent of 90,000 men, and
a few days later came the very significant
comment upon the change of public feeling,
that an increase of the force to the extent of
100,000 men had been passed by the assembled Deputies.
One of the questions on which the Prussian Liberals have
to meet their constituents is as to the maintenance of the
existing strength of the army, and the contingent military
budget of sixty-seven millions of thalers (about $50,250,000
gold). On this question we find the Weser Zeitung, of
Bremen, writing, about three weeks ago, to the following
effect :—" One thing must be steadily kept in view. The
defensive strength of Germany is on no account to be
weakened or shaken. . . . We regard the North
German Army as the best bulwark of peace in Europe ;
we regret that this bulwark is so costly, but we believe
that a chronic danger of war, even leaving actual war
quite out of the question; would force us to
make sacrifices to double or treble the amount."
This appeal is made to the national Liberals
of Germany; and it need scarcely be said that in the light
of recent events, its force will be made to appear irresisti-
ble. The magnitude of such a struggle as that now
threatened between France and Prussia is but faintly
represented by the fact that in a fortnight each of these
Powers could place in the field half-a-million of well-
disciplined soldiers. Viewed as a drain upon the produc-
tive industry of either country, the maintenance of such
a force must be regarded as a permanent source of weak-
ness rather than of strength. Regarded merely
as a question of figures, peace would appear
to be a more imperative necessity to France
than to Prussia. The capital of her national
debt is more than ten times larger than that of Prussia,
and her contributions to account of interest and sinking
fund proportionally greater. In 1868 Prussia paid under
this head a sum equivalent to about $12,800,000 gold,
while the expenditure of France for the same purpose
amounted to nearly $124,000,000 gold. The French mili-
tary budget, instead of being limited to the sum of fifty
million dollars, already quoted as the Prussian limit, is
not less than seventy-five millions in gold. The fact must
also be noted that the last census shewed the population
of the associated States of North Germany to be thirty-
eight millions, or almost exactly equal to that of France,
while the density of population-117 persons to the
square mile—was precisely the same in both coun-
tries. The ability to bear taxation of the North
German population is certainly not so great as that
of the
French nation, while their disposition to submit to it is
very emphatically less. Taking these facts either as a
measure of readiness for war, or as an argument in favour
of a desire for peace, it is equally certain that they re-
present a state of things which the present ebullition of
warlike sentiment will do much to perpetuate. While
we must regret such a necessity on the score of a common
civililization, and a common humanity, we cannot shut
our eyes to the fact that it will tend to our national
profit. Heavy as are our own burdens of taxation, they
are, in proportion to our resources, much less than those
of most of the States of Europe ; and the continuance of
burdens which bear most hardly upon the artisans and
labourers of the Old World cannot fail to swell the tide
of emigration to these shores.—New York Times.