The Sun.
London, England, 1870-10-27 00:00:00

PROBABLE DURARION OF THE SIEGE.

The correspondent of the Standard at the Prussian
Headquarters, writing on the 19th instant, discusses the
subject of the probable duration of the investment of
Paris. He says : How long shall we be kept here ?
That is a question which everybody is asking, and some
are attempting to answer. Let us take, certainly a
favourable, but not an absurd or even an impro-
bable supposition, and assume that no disaster
attends the arms of the besiegers either before Paris or
elsewhere. What will be the consequence ? Metz will
have to capitulate before very long ; the Army of the
Rhone will follow the Army of the Loire ; the threatened
bombardment of the forts of the capital will be more or less
successful; and what with falling shells and failing food,
Paris will be reduced to beg for terms. I am still arguing
on the assumption which I call favourable, and all this
may happen by the 15th or 20th of November. And then ?
Then France will be called upon to speak out her mind
as to the form of Government she prefers, and to re•
place the irregular Government of National Defence
by a Constituent Body, which, in subscribing terms
of peace, shall bind the entire nation. A month is
not too long a term to allow for the election and verifica-
tion of such an assembly ; and the new year would hardly
do more than see it either discussing the conditions
offered by the victors, or delegating its authority to a com-
mittee chosen for its own members. And not till agree-
ment had been arrived at between it or its representatives
and the German plenipotentiaries would it be possible to
withdraw any portion of the investing and occupying
forces. Thus, let the circumstances be as favourable as
possible, there is no chance of our getting away before
January—if, indeed, so soon. That is not a pleasant
prospect; but it is one which every one whose
fortunes are bound up with his army must
face. There will be no Christmas dinner, no New Year's
festivities in their own homes for those who have followed
to the field that warlike lord, William of Prussia. They
will have to be as merry as they can in a foreign land. It
Will be a great gain, however, if we- have a suspension of
hostilities by December, ►to be followed by a termi-
nation of them. Many, in that case, would exchange
Versailles for Paris, and think themselves fortunate.
But things may not turn out so favourably.
Metz may possibly not fall. Garibaldi may pos-
sibly be yet found a name to conjure with. Krupp's
big gnus inay possibly get as good as they give, as
the phrase is. Paris may possibly make a great and
successful sortie. The South may possibly come to the
rescue, and try a throw with the beleagueni. Any or all .
of these things are possible, though believe them to be

to the last degree unlikely. But if they do happen, then
we must and for every one of them so happening a
month or more to the duration of our stay. As to the
chances, everybody can judge for himself. I described
to you the day before yesterday the view
taken by La France of the heterogeneous force to which
is entrusted the defence of Paris ; and your industrious
travelling correspondents in the provinces faithfully
acquaint you with their military condition, and
enable you to judge what is to be hoped for
from them. On the other side, there are in
France some 700,000 Germans, 300,000 of whom now
stand armed round Paris. The big guns will soon
all he here, and Paris will have to contend with another
foe besides failing provisions. Therefore, I incline to
believe that by this day month, if not before, France
will have entered upon the regular path which leads
to peace, or will have been dragged by Republican
desperadoes into: a guerilla warfare which will
not save honour, and which will inflict upon the country
woes and misfortuii4s compared with which all past
trouble will be a trifle. In the latter case Paris
would, of course, be occupied militarily, but one's occu-
pation here would be gone. I may be too sanguine ;
but if we are kept here in Versailles after, at the very
latest, the end of next month, I shall be disappointed and
astonished. Still, as I have said, a return home will be
delayed for German feet. Under the most favourable
circumstances they cannot hope to recross the Rhine till
1871. This is the view taken by the most sensible and
far-calculating minds. This forecast is based on the belief
that no miracles are to be expected from the French
people. "They have lost the scorn of death
which their forefathers had," said a very mode-
rate, Prussian to me this morning ; and I fear the seve-
rity of his words was as true as it was simple. Nor is to
be expected that the inhabitants of Paris will face that
contingency pointed out in Count Bismarck's last cir-
cular, which would inevitably arise were they to hold out
till food failed them altogether. There are hot heads in
the famous city; but there are cool ones too, and a couple
of millions of people do not court real extremities.

MOVEMENTS AT VERSAILLES.

Writing from the Royal Headquarters on the 21st, the
correspondent of the Telelfraph says :—Quarters have been
prepared in Versailles for the reception of several South
German Ministers. This thy friends in the besieging
army seem to consider a very significant fact. The war,
they say, has already made Germany one ; North and
South are determined to become united in closest
bonds ; and so anxious is this desire that the
Southern Governments have not waited till the
conclusion of the war to enter into negotiations.
Their Ministers have braved the fatigues and dangers of
a. long journey across the enemy's country, that in the
very sight of the enemy's capital they may consummate
the union fur which Germany has so long
yearned—which France has so impotently op-
posed. For some time it has been a subject of
remark that the Parisians spewed a degree of acquaint-
an.:e with the movements of the investing army
hardly to be expected from people hi their position.
When, for instance, our forces had been massed in a
certain spot to oppose a threatened sortie, the French
suddenly changed the point of attack to some place less
strongly defended. It is suspected that the inhabitants of
Versailles manage somehow to convey to their compa-
triots in Paris information concerning the movements,
positions, &c., of the German forces. The most searching
investigation has been made into the means employed for
this purpose, but as yet without avail. . That telegraphic
communication could be carried on with any point in or
about this town without being discovered' would appear
perfectly impossible; and equally so that any person could
steal or force his way through the Prussian lines. Has
this war, so fruitful in military inventions, added
another by which, through . some machinery hitherto
unknown, information can be conveyed from place to
place ! Yesterday two gentlemen Who had come out
of Paris under the protection of a flag of truce
arrived at Versailles. That they were emissaries
of the Provisional Government is beyond doubt,
but what the nature of their mission is, nobody that I
have met can tell. Are we going to have a renewal of
the negotiations for an armistice ; or has the Committee
of Defence already determined to abate something
of the haughty and inflexible refusals with which it has
hitherto rejected Count Bismarck's terms of
peace ? To-day G eneral Brice,. the Haytian Minister, de-
parted from this town—departed, I should also
be inclined to suspect, in greatest dudgeon. He
had asked leave to re-enter Paris for the purpose
of removing the archives, papers, &c., of the
Embassy. This request refused, he desired an
interview with the omnipotent Chancellor of the
Confederation, possibly imagining that what subordinates
had refused the chief might grant. But Count Bismarck
declined to accede to this petition also ; so the baffled
Minister, defeated at all points, could do nothing but
retire.

The Commander of Fort Mont Valdrien has been re•
rnoved. because he did not fire at the Germans. The pail°
loudly complained of this silence, and another Governor
was appointed, who blazes away every day.