The Sun.
London, England, 1870-10-31 00:00:00

A FRENCH EX-AMBASSADOR ON THE WAR.

M. de la Guerronibre, until lately the French
Ambassador at Constantinople, has written a second
letter on the probable termination of the war to a
diplomatic friend. In his first letter he
traced the probable consequences of the
complete overthrow of France on Austria,
England, and Italy, and he now examines
the situation and attitude of Russia. He does not
believe that any secret treaty exists between Russia
and Prussia, and as he is just come from the East his
words have some weight. The real tie between
the two Powers does not, he says, originate
in diplomacy, but in war. Russia is not likely to
make a military intervention in the East at present,
or to call forth against herself an alliance between
England and Austria while Prussia is engaged with
France. She is in no hurry to re-open the
Eastern question. She can afford to wait, but the
day on which the King of Prussia crosses
the Rhine and takes the sceptre of the Holy Empire
on the tomb of Charlemagne, that day Russia will
morally reach Constantinople. When the war broke
out, Russia had two alternatives. She might either
restrain Prussia or counterbalance her by extending
her own influence. In allowing the future empire of
Germany the possession of Kiel, which shuts her in the
the gulf of Finland, Russia is pledged to regain the
keys of the Black Sea, which the fall of Sebastopol
took from her. Coming to the question of the possible
conclusion of the war, M. de la Guerronniere blames
the neutral powers for not making an energetic
movement immediately after Sedan. The Turkish
Cabinet was the only one that appreciated the op-
portunity, and Aali Pacha no sooner received M. Jules
Favre's diplomatic circular, than he addressed a
powerful appeal to all the neutral powers. Had
England seconded his efforts, the other neutrals
would have.followed suit. Even now it may not be
too late, especially as any attempt at mediation meets
an unexpected ally in the resolute resistance of Paris
to the further progress of the invader.

THE IMPERIAL ARMY.

The question is raised as to how many men the
French entered on the war with. It is said that
France, when her disasters began, had, instead of
250,000 men ready to do battle with Germany, at
least 400,000. The earlier battles of the campaign
gave 10,000 prisoners and 15,000 hors de
combat. At Gravelotte and Vionville 3,000 or
4,000 prisoners were taken, and at least
20,000 fell. The remnant of MacMahon's and De
Failly's corps at Chalons amounted to 50,000 men,
and were reinforced by 100,000 men. Of these
125,000 were taken prisoners at Sedan. Reckoning
those who crossed the Belgian frontier, 162,000 were
killed or taken, besides those who surrendered at
Metz. The grand total of the French losses has
been 337,000. There yet remain numerous bodies
of regulars, mostly in a very disorganised state,
scatterdd over the country. It seems, therefore,
that France had well nigh half a million of soldiers,
more or less available, at the opening of the war,
though, owing to defective administration, but half
that number could be concentrated on the eastern
frontier.
THE COMMERCIAL CONSEQUENCES OF THE WAR.

Merchants are usually supposed to be the most
peace loving class of a community, and they have
certainly good reason for their pacific predilections.
The present war has been especially disastrous in
its commercial effects on account of the immense
amount of businesss carried on between England and
France, and the sudden and complete blockade of
communications with the French capital. One
branch of business which has been seriously
affected by the interruption is the legal,
for it is naturally impossible to carry on cases in
which the presence of witnesses residing in Paris is
required, or in which any reference has to be made
to persons or documents in the besieged city. Even
Chancellors and Bankruptcy commissioners can
hardly hurl their anathemas against aeronauts and
carrier pigeons, nor can they denounce those who
fail to employ such methods of communication for
contempt of Court. There is nothing for it but to
to submit, and postpone or abandon the
cases. In more than one case before the
English Bankruptcy Court mercantile failure
has been directly attributable to the interruption of
communications with France, and it is certain that
for every case of actual public failure there are many
of serious private embarrassment and inconvenience
from the same cause. The evil so strongly felt in
England is of course intensified in France, while in
Jersey, v, here many Frenchmen reside, and all re-
mittances are stopped, the suffering is said to assume
serious proportions.