The Sun.
London, England, 1853-08-30 00:00:00

THE GRAIN TRADE OF 1853-4.

( From the Toronto Daily Leader, August 10.)

The wheat harvest of Canada is so far secured that
adverse weather could not operate much injury to that
crop, That the crop will be a full average one in point
of yield to the area sown there is no room to doubt ;
and as little is there that the breadth of land under
wheat this year was greater than on any previous oc-
casion. With us it is not as with an old country, which
in any particular year, may sow more or less by
accident : we are every year steadily increasing
the area of arable land, and with it the produc-
tion of wheat. Consumption lags far behind pro-
duction ; and, as a matter of course, we are every
year adding to the amount of our exports. To
afford a market for the increased productions not only
of Canada but of other countries, it is necessary that
there should be an increased consumption in the coun-
try that furnishes the market for those productions.
And, in point of fact, we find the consumption of Eng-
land keeping pace with the increased production of other
parts of the world. By a return just laid before the
House of Commons, it appears that the average quan-
tity of wheat and flour imported into England from
1828 to 1850 was 1,902,650 qrs. The period embraces
two years, 1849 and 1850, when wheat was admitted
duty free, and one when its admission was admitted
duty free, the famine year of 1847. If these three years
were taken out of the account, the average importation
during that period of restricted trade would be much
less than stated.
In each of the years of 1849 and 1850 the importa-
tion was more than double the average from 1828 to
1850, being respectively 4,802,475 qrs. and 4,830,263
qrs. But if we would obtain a correct idea of the in-
creasing capacity of England as a consumer of bread-
stuffs, we must look to the importations of 1851 and
1852. In the former year the quantity was 5,340,412
qrs, and in the latter 6,089,606. It is well understood
that the breadth of land under wheat in England is this
year much less than the average. Taking this circum-
stance in connection with the progressive increase of
importation since the establishment of free trade, it
will hardly be an extravagant estimate that England
will require to import before the harvest of 1854 about
8,000,000 qrs. of wheat. Nor do we know any reason
to conclude that the supply will not be equal to the de-
mand. At the ordinary rate of increase, Canada will,
this year, export 2,750,000 bushels of wheat more than
in 1852 ; making a total export of that article of
8,250,000 bushels, or more than one-eighth part of all
that England will require.
Our export of wheat, at the ordinary rate of increase,
will this year be equal to half the yearly average quan-
tity imported into England from 1828 to 1850. In 1858
our export will, at the present rate of progress, be equal
in quantity to all the wheat and flour annually im-
ported into England for a period of 23 years, com-
mencing with 1828.
It thus appears that if England's power of consump-
tion had remained at the point it stood at before the
reduction of free trade, the production of wheat could
never have reached its present point. There would
have been too limited a market to stimulate production ;
for where there is not the demand, the supply will not
be forthcoming. As it is, consumption treads very
closely on the heels of production, and every branch of
industry thus receives a continuous stimulus.
Of the wheat exporting countries the United States is
one that does not now increase its exports of that pro-
duct ; and no augmented supplies can, under ordinary
circumstances, be looked for with any certainty to that
quarter. Experience has shown that unless stimulated
by famine prices, the United States will not send to the
English market more than its ordinary quantity of about
11,000,000 bushels of wheat. Of the greater quantity
which England will require this year, it is not likely
that the United States will contribute any portion above
its usual amount. The wheat harvest in that country is
generally believed to be a fair average one, but no more
is claimed for it. The increased demand of England for
breadstuffs has been supplied during the last four years
without any additional exports from the United States ;
and there is reason to believe that this may occur again
during the present year. It is from other countries than
the United States that the extra supplies are to be ex-
pected ; and if the increased production in Canada, Wal-
lachia, Moldavia, Egypt, and New Russia, be equal to
the increased demand, there is no reason to expect that
wheat will reach any exorbitant figure before the har-
vest of 1854. What is certain is, that the increased
production of these countries has so far been equal to
the demand ; and it is believed that this year they have
had a greater breadth of land under crop than in any of
the last four years, during which there has been so great
an increase both in the demand and production of bread-
stuffs.