The Sun.
London, England, 1854-10-09 00:00:00

RUSSIAN VIEW OF THE CRISIS.

The hidependance Beige (Russian organ), under date Bu-
charest, Sept. 26, says :—" Lord Raglan has written to Omer
Patella, inviting him to effect a diversion on the Pruth, while
the confederate army shall be penetrating into the Crimea.
The order has been given for every ono to prepare to move.
The vanguard is already on its march to Moldavia. Omer
Paella leaves to-morrow. The attitude of the Austrians re-
mains the same."

The writer goes on to say
What does this movement mean, and what will be its
probable result ? Permit me to snake a few observations.
" I dislike conjectures, even the best founded ones, since
the future teo often takes delight in confounding them. But
what I have to tell you rests on facts scarcely disputed by
any, and they appear to me to have about them an air of ab-
solute certainty. Let us first of all make quite clear the pre-
sent situation of the armies. Bessarabia is occupied by the
3d, 4th, and sth corps, under the chief command of Prince
Gortschakoff, and the immediate command of the Generals
Dannenberg, Osten-Sacken, and Luders. The Last occupies
Matschin also, and a few other unimportant points along the
Lower Danube. On the other side the Anglo-French army,
70,000 strong, is in the Crimea, and perhaps at this very mo-
ment is coming in close quarters' with the defenders of Sebas-
topol. Ninety thousand Turks, under the orders of Omer
Pacha, are going this very week to the Pruth. As for the
Austrian army, it is quite resolved, at least for the present,
to take no active share in the war. -This being laid
down, two hypotheses present themselves—either Sebastopol
will be taken, or it will not. Persons well qualified to
speak on the subject, Russian officers well acquainted
with Sebastopol and its environs, have assured me
that on the land side it is impossible to establish any other
serious defence save by means of an army in a strong posi-
tion, which is very difficult, by reason of the bad nature of
the ground. But then, there is not a very numerous army
in the Crimea, and the defence of the fortress requires snore
than 20,000 men. If attacked simultaneously by land and
sea, it could not long hold out. Nevertheless, I cannot take
upon myself to say that it will be taken. All Ido say is,
that the thing is possible. In that case, what next? If the
Emperor, terrified at the destruction of his fleet, demanded
separated from their resources by a
peace, the question would be settled. But the Emperor will
not demand it. Will the allied army establish itself in the
Crimea ? " Yes," if the inhabitants rise in its favour
Is 0, ' if the contrary be the case. Can sixty thousand men
in a foreign country,
stormy sea, resist the numerous reinforcements the Russians
would be enabled to send into the Crimea? It would be run-
iug great risk,

"Having destroyed the fleet and the fortress, the allies
will then be obliged to abandon their positions, and to bring
their ships back to the Bosphorus. Me writer
forgets that
Sebastopol has a harbour.) This will be in the winter, a sea-
son dreaded by the southern peoples, excellent for the Rus-
sians. Delivered then, from their anxiety on the side of the
Baltic and the Black Sea, the one enclosed in by ice and the
other by tempests, they will be able to collect all their forces
at the Danube; and without passing the Pruth, in order to
be faithful to their convention, and to furnish Austria with
no pretext for attacking them, they will be able to cross the
Danube near Reni or Galata, and enter with a formidable
army into the heart itself of European Turkey. I know from
a good source that such is the combined plan agreed upon
at one of the latest councils of war held by Prince Gort-
schakoff.

"It is moreover asserted that the Emperor means to com-
mand this expedition in person. Whatever idea may be enter-
tamed of the Russians every one will allow that the presence
of the sovereign is calculated to inspire the troops with ardour.
Grave events might then be reasonably expected in those
countries, even during the winter. Last winter the Russians
and the Turks made prodigious marches when snow was on
the ground, and the cold was extreme (only to be beaten by
the Turks for their pains). Winter quarters are in reality a
lure that does not now deceive the wary.

" MeanwhileTmentioned to you, that the army of Omer
Pacha was marching on the Pruth. If the Russians wait
where they are for the Turks, and then attack them, the
Turks will not resist. In the open field, the Ottoman army
is weak, especially when it is so inferior in numbers as at this
moment-80,000 men against 200,000. Beaten in a general
action---(the Russians have never yet beaten the Turks in this
war)—it would be annihilated, because it has no reservd. Tho
system hitherto followed—that of a guerilla warfare—has
been perfectly successful on the part of Omer Pacha. Ho is
too prudent to change it. I think, therefore, he will con-
tent himself with harassing the Russians, in order to prevent
them sending succour to the Crimea, but he will avoid a
pitched baitle.

It remains to be seen whether ho will, in a country full
of plains and marshes, far from his fortified centre, be able to
carry out the system of tactics ho pursued on the banks of
the Danube. What would be the attitude of Austria in case
the Turks sustain a defeat l That is a decisve question lam
not competent to solve. In a word, affairs, as they stand at
'
present, are of the highest importance • and it seems to me
persons aro wrong who reckon so much on the next spring.
For (and I now come to my second hypothesis) if Sebastopol
is not taken, the allied army will be obliged to withdraw, the
Russians will fortify the place on the land side as they have
already on the sea-board ; they will profit by the winter to
attack the Turks in the territory of the latter, and Heaven
knows what may be the result of such an attack, made by so
numerous a Russian army, under the command of the Em-
peror in person. [The numbers are not proved and the Em-
peror is not there.] I have entire confidence in the courage
and intelligence of the allied armies, but I persist in believing
that we ought not to despise a nation that has sixty millions
of souls—a nation quite military in its nature, long prepared
for war, and resolved to make every sacrifice rather than give
way."

This is all that Russia can say for her own case on the
Pruth by the pen of the Russian correspondent of the Rus-
sian Independancc Beige.

FATAL ACCIDENT ON THE THAMES.—Yesterday
afternoon, a seaman, named William Traver•, fell over-
board from the schooner Change, of Hull, lying off
Harrison's Wharf, near St. Katharine's Docks, and was
drowned. The body was recovered shortly afterwards.
Doomed wars a native of Lincoln.

NAVAL AND MILITARY INTELLIGENCE.

MORE SCREW LINE-OF-BATTLE SHIPS.

PORTSMOUTH, Oct. B.—Active exertions are being made to
get forward another division of screw line-of-battle ships.
The Pembroke, 72, and _Hastings, 74, have been brought
alongside the dockyard for this purpose, and the greatest
bustle was manifested yesterday in getting them ready to be
docked. Seven vessels of this class aro to be immediately
expedited in the conversion of them into screws. This class
of vessbl will be far more serviceable for operations in the
shallow waters of the Baltic than ships drawing so much
water as the Duke of Wellington, St. Jean d'Aere, Princess
Royal, Cressy, Nile, &e. The building of the Marlborough,
131, screw, and Shannon, 50, screw frigate, in this dockyard,
also ;rapidly progresses, as does also the alteration of the
Royal Sovereign, 120, to a screw ; she is on the stocks.