The Sun.
London, England, 1865-04-03 00:00:00

The Liverpool Cotton Market.

(From Messrs. Smith, Edwards, and Co.'s Circular.)

LIVERPOOL, April 1.

The month of March has surpassed all ,previous months
since this crisis commenced in depression and commercial
anxiety, and another enormous decline in the value of
cotton must be quoted, amounting to sd. per lb. in long-
stapled descriptions, and 4d. in short staples, of fully 25
per cent.

At the date of the last report, fair Egyptians were worth
about 20d. per lb; Dhollera, 151 d. to 16d.; and Bengals,
The market was just subsiding from a brief spell of better
business, and it soon relapsed into intense depression.

•
The news from America was most unfavourable to the
South. Charleston was abandoned to the Federals, Wil-
mington was taken, and Sherman made steady progress
through South Carolina. The conviction grew stronger
that the Southern Confederacy was collapsing, and all
engaged in the cotton trade began to base their opera-
tions upon the supposition of approaching peace. Prices
rapidly fell, till fair Egyption reached 16d.; Dhollerah, 12d.
to 12id. ; and Bengal, bid. per lb. At this point a turn in
the tide occurred. Buyers took a little confidence from the
greatly reduced prices, and considerable contracts were
given out in Manchester for goods on the basis of ls. Bd. to
Is. 9d. per lb. for India shirtings of good quality. Indeed,
the production of this description of goods was pre-engaged
pretty generally up to the month of June. These contracts
led to considerable purchases of yarn, and they in their turn
brought spinners into the Liverpool market to cover with
cotton. During the week ending 17th ult., 75,000 bales were
sold, of which the trade took 50,000, and prices advanced
11d. in long staples, and Id. in Surats and other short
staples. But the inherent weakness of the market soon
showed itself, the instant the trade paused in their pur-
chases, holders pressed their stocks on the market, and
prices gave way. The news from America continued in the
same monotonous strain of misfortune to the South, the.
Richmond press gave utterance to language of despondency
almost amounting to despair, while the Northern papers
were filled with exulting predictions that the end was at
hand. Renewed depression settled upon Manchester and
Liverpool, and another severe decline took place. Great
uneasiness was also felt about the state of commercial
credit, failures on a large scale were hourly apprehended,
and the dread of the contingency stayed operations, which
would have been thought safe, so far as price was con-
cerned, for it was argued that financial distress might force
prices much lower than the position of supply and demand
warranted. This last spell of depression continued almost
a fortnight, and reached its climax on the 29th ult. when
one or two sales of Egyptians were made below 14d. for fair,
Maceios were done at 121 d., Pernams at 13id., middling fair
Dhollera at 9d., Oomrawutteee and Compta at Bd., fair Ben-
gal and Scinde at Sid. to 6d and second-class quality at 4-id
to sd. In Manchester India shirtings were contracted
for at is. 6d. per lb. for good makes, or ls. per lb. below
the best prices paid at the end of last year, and within 6d.
per lb. of what were considered cheap rates in the years of
plenty before the American war.
For several months the resources of the South have
been on the wane, the Federal arms have encountered no
important check, and the Southern press abounds with
evidences of a wide-spread feeling of despondency. The
military strength of the Confederates are concentrated in
Virginia and North Carolina, but the onward march of
Sherman is pushing back the Southern lines till it seems
that the mass of the Confederate forces will be crowded
into the neighbourhood of Richmond. The danger' is
that they will be hemmed in there, and deprived of sup-
plies, as nearly all the avenues are intercepted or de-
stroyed. The situation is evidently perilous, and may neces-
sitate the evacuation of Richmond at any moment. But it
does not follow from this that the war is at an end. There is a
huge country behind Richmond where the Confederate
armies, if divided into smaller bodies, might protract the
war indefinitely. It is not so much a question of military
preponderance as of the stubborn determination of the
population to resist. If the feeling that animates the
Virginian people prevailed all through the South, it is
hard to say when the end would come. But it is very
doubtful if such a spirit will be shown. The tardy and
reluctant consent of the Confederate Congress to arm the
negroes, and their refusal even in this crisis to pass any
comprehensive measure of emancipation, leads to the
belief that there is not that unity and determination
necessary to prolong the contest indefinitely. The balance
of probability seems to be against the South holding out
for a very lengthened period, though it must be allowed
that great—almost insurmountable—difficulties present
themselves in the way of an early peace. There are no
signs that Jefferson Davis will entertain the thought of
submission, and with the supreme military command con-
ferred upon so able a general as Lee, it is quite probable
that the South may continue the struggle much longer than
foreign spectators anticipate. Further, it may be observed
that successful revolts have generally passed through a
stage of weakness and despondency. The American colo-
nies in the war of independence were reduced to greater
straits than the Confederates have yet been subjected to.
It would be premature to conclude, from its present low
estate; that, the-Beuth has ivet all chance of success.

The next point to be touched on is the supply of cotton
that would be rendered available by an early settlement
in America. We have carefully compared opinions upon
the question of stock remaining in the South. There is
an utter want of reliable data, and the estimates made
now by those most conversant with the South, vary from
three quarters of a million to three millions cf bales. Tho
most favourite estimate, or rather guess, that has come
before us is two millions of bales, which appears to be
ample in the face of the fact that at least one half of the
cotton lands of the South are in the possession of the
Federals, or open to their incursions, while expeditions
have traversed many of the other districts without light-
ing upon any large stores of the staple. Besides it is well
known that the condition of the cotton is bad—the bagging
must be rotten to a great extent, and probably much of the
staple is unmerchantable. But if the war goes on for some
months longel, it
Probfkble that much of thig„eDtt."'
be destroyed. At Augusta, for instance, ifis said there are
fully 100,000 bales,which are stored so as to be ready to fire
at the first signal of danger. As all the cotton seized by the
Federals is confiscated, there is no motive for the owners
to save it from destruction, and if the course of hostili-
ties carries the Northern force Lilo the hitherto un-
touched territories, there can be little doubt that a large
portion of the existing stock will be given to the flames
That this view prevails at New York is evidenced by the
fact that prices are kept there much above the rates
ruling here, though it is upon that market that supplies
from the South would be first launched in the event of
peace. Further, it may be observed that the means of
transportation in the South is entirely broken up, nearly
all the railroads are destroyed, and as most of the cotton is
stored in remote places far in the interior, it will be a tedi-
ous and dilatory process to send it down to the seaports in
the event of peace, while the great rivers which formed
the highway for the major part of the crop in former years
will be too low in the summer months to aid in the trans-
port.

- With regard to the more distaut prospects of supply from
the South, it may be remarked that little cotton will be
sown east of the Mississippi this year if the war continues
over the month of April (tho planting month), but in the
State of Texas Perhaps 300,000 bales will be sown ; and
as America, after the restoration of peace, will require a
large sum of the cotton for her own consumption (which
amounted,before the war to 800,000 bales or 900,000 bales
annually), we do not see how more than one million to one
million and a half of bales could be shipped to Europe till
the end of next year—a period of twenty months, against
an average supply of three millions annually for some years
before the war.