The Sun.
London, England, 1862-05-19 00:00:00

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THE SUN.
LONDON, MONDAY, NIAY 19, 1862.

We shall all be awaiting with almost feverish
interest the arrival of the next few mails from
America. It is indeed hardly possible to conceive
a position of affairs in a foreign country more full
of the gravest probabilities, yet of the gravest tin.
certainties. The probabilities would be generally
supposed to be in favour of BEAUREGARD being
routed by HALLECK, and JEFFERSON DAVIS and
his generals who have just evacuated Yorktown, by
M'CLELLAN ; but the possibilities also, are, that
either of the great Confederate armies may inflict
with the courrge of despair, a severe defeat upon
the army opposed to it. The victories of New
Orleans and Yorktown point, in the opinion Of
most, to nothing but speedy Federal triumph.
The North itself regards them in this light, even I
their money market powerfully feels the effect of
two such successes following each other so quickly.
Still the more thoughtful remember the chances of
war, and recollect that a great military triumph
of the Confederates in the East or in the West
might protract the campaign over the hot weather,
and then, probably, through another winter. While,
therefore, it would be unreasonable not to look for
one or two more decisive Northern triumphs ►

The great disaster at Yorktown appears to be
chiefly due to the cause we at first suspected, the
liberation of the Federal gunboats from their fear
of the Merrimac. They had in fact taken York-
town in its rear, and were, with transports hasten-
ing up to West Point where the large estuary of
the York river comes nearly to a termination, hop-
ing by landing troops there, to embarrass the
retreating Confederates. The arrangements also of
M'CLELLAN for a general bombardment of the
works appears to have been such as to make the
majority of the generals think resistance hopeless.
Indeed MACGRUDER alone appears to have held out
for fighting. As the Confederates have been driven
from their first halting place—Williamsburg, and
must, therefore, be still moving nearer Richmond,
(
unless the second visit of M. MERCIER should issue
in the submission which some American politicians
look for, it would seem that a great battle before
Richmond will take place before long. As, how.
ever, HALLECK is watching BEAUREGARD on the
Mississippi almost within cannon shot of him,
the decisive battle may be fought there.
For, notwithstanding what the friends of the South
in this country may say, it seems pretty plain to
us, that the Southern cause, since the fall of ,

New Orleans, could not survive long a substan-
tial defeat by either HALLECK or M'CLELLAN.
One by the former would seal the fate of the

planting States ; one by the latter would deprive
the Confederates of their capital and Virginia.
The North reasons now on the subject, as if
assured of final and early success. The opening
of New Orleans is formally announced, and that
of the Atlantic ports promised immediately. The
Northern politicians are also beginning to discuss
that difficulty which has puzzled European poli-
ticians from the beginning—how to reunite hos-
tile sovereign States, in a working Federal Go-
vernment, with each other. Hence some propose
to cut the knot completely, to declare the Southern
States territories, to nominate their governors,
therefore, by the Government, and to deprive them
of a vote in Congress. This, of course, would be
equivalent to a military occupation, with all its
cost and despotism. But though the readmission
of the Seceded States to the Senate and Con-
gress will be the signal for a long and

bitter political war, we cannot believe any othEr

programme to be possible. Americans are too
thorough republicans to endure long anything like

an Austrian occupation of one-half their territory
by the other. One alteration will certainly have
to be made in the Constitution, that which gives

votes to the Slave States in proportion not only to
the number of the whites, but of three-fifths of the

slaves also. We are only sorry to believe that even
in the hour of their triumph the North is too averse
to tho negro to require the abrogation of that foul
clause in their Constitution, wkich requires the
delivery of the fugitive slave to his master. Mr.

LINCOLN himself not only endures, but defends this

, -- disgraceful blot on their republican constitution.

If that blot be not removed, the North will deserve

another secession, and another war, in no long

time.

1 If ever there has been a doubt as to the intrinsic
goode 0 r evil of what is popularly known (perhaps
w
ought strictly speaking to say unpopularly
; known) as the Billeting
must at last be dissipated.mso-calledd to view beyond
has been just
I now, for once and for all, displsy
the possibility of any further misapprehension by a
circular issued from the Home-office by order
f Secretary of State. A document addressed to thethe
Chairman of Quarter Sessions of the County of
Middlesex, and authenticated by the signature " H.
WADDINGTON." It is a communication in every
respect eminently well worth reading throughout,
It has been circulated already among the magistrates
of the county, and comprises within it a notification
very pointedly addressed to the landlord of every
public-house in Middlesex, "I am directed," says'

over confidence is out of the question. The South
is still strong, is fighting on its own soil, and its
fate still depends, for a long time at least, very much
on that temper of which we have heard so much.
The movements of M. MERCIER, the French
ambassador, add considerably to the uncertainties
of the case. Correspondents of the American papers
from Washington begin at length to argue with an
air of confidence that his mission could not have
been on anything merely commercial or trivial. It
was undertaken with the full acquiesence of the
Federal Government ; he could not in honour go
for any object hostile to that Government; the
French Government has always been avowedly
willing to offer mediation as soon as the position of
military affairs gave the slightest hope that it could
be of any use, and the reasonings of Washington
politicians and the published gossip from Rich-
mond, concur in the representation that the visit
was unofficial, and carefully kept so, but that the
views of the EUFEROR were fully made known to the
important personages at Richmond. M. MERCIER
returned to Washington in more formal style than
he left it—on board a French war steamer; the
President and Mr. SEWARD received him on the
quay, and were themselves received by the Gassendi
with an imperial salute, while M. MERCIER was
afterwards handsomely entertained by them. All
this certainly does look as if importance were
attributed to his visit.
It is also very remarkable that hardly had he
left the Southern capital when JEFFERSON DAVIS
calls a council of his generals and Yorktown is
evacuated, and again M. MERCIER immediately
leaves for that place ! If all these movements indi-
cate nothing important, Americans themselves, and
we on this side the water, may certainly be excused
for supposing that thay must have an important
purpose. To complete the ominous aspect of things,
the Southern Congress had adjourned with such
indecent haste before the evacuation of Yorktown,
that they left JEFFERSON DAVIS'S despatches un-
opened, and were represented by Richmond papers
as fugitives and cowards who would never return !
The opinion in the North therefore, from the
way in which the President and Mr. SEWARD
have treated M. MERCIER, from the break-up of the
Southern Congress and the surrender of Yorktown,
is, that M. -MERCIER told all their leading men his
master's view of their hopeless position. That he
undeceived them as to the likelihood of either
France or England doing more than acknowledge
them as belligerents; that he showed them how they
had done enough for their honour; but, that longer
resistance could be only prolonged injury to them-
selves; that he, at the same time, assured them of
the certainty of his master's good offices to prevent
the enforcement of hard terms by the North.
That Louis NAPOLEON and Europe would be satis-
fied on the Slavery question with the present offer
of conditional emancipation by Congress, and that
reunion would be secured them with the full rights
which they had previously enjoyed. Such are the
most probable representations of the drift of I.
MERCIER'S visit to Richmond, so far as we can
gather it from both Northern and Southern ac-
counts; not a word has appeared, officially, yet, we
can, therefore, vouch for nothing, but merely lay
before o'ir readers what seems best to square
with the facts of the case as interpreted by those
most interested on both sides.