The Sun.
London, England, 1862-01-04 00:00:00

A COMMERCIAL VIEW OF THE

AMERICAN CRISIS.

We have been favoured with a copy of the fol-
lowing interesting letter :

" New York, Dec. 19.

" Gentlemen,—The latest advices from England
show that the international question raised by the
arrest of Messrs. Mason and Slidell on board the
mail steamer Trent has assumed much more serious
proportions than the American people were pre-
pared for ; and the bearings of the imbroglio upon
the cotton trade become therefore extremely inte-
resting. The first emotion when the news of that
event became public in this country was a mingled
one of surprise and delight with the boldness and
neatness of the exploit, and at finding such imugr-
tent enemies in Northern custody, and of fear that
the act was illegal and impossible to maintain.
Even the President himself admitted that the pri-
soners would probably have to be given up. But
forthwith the press of the country—whose main
policy is to charm their readers and increase their
own popularity by telling the people whatever
they will like to hear—devoted themselves heart
and soul to the work of convincing themselves and
their readers that the act was perfectly legal, in
accordance with precedent, and especially with
English decisions. It is easy to convince those who
wish to believe, and as all the argument was on
one side, with none to expose its fallacies, sophis-
tries, and misrepresentations, it is not surprising
that the mass of the people should have been speedily
satisfied. And being convinced as to the legality
of the act, neither was it surprising that among a
people so self-confident as to their power of judging
correctly and so vain of their military strength, a
unanimous determination should be arrived at and
expressed, not, under any circumstances, to part
with the prisoners. The mob desired to hold them,
right or wrong. The more respectable citizens
determined to hold them, because they had already
been so easily convinced that it was right: Every
one has since heard of the ovations given to Captain
Wilkes, the vote of thanks from Congress, and the
compliments paid him by the Secretary of the Navy.

" Under these circumstances, matters assumed a
more and more serious aspect ; for, as the nation
became thus fully committed to an approval of
Captain Wilkes's action, it was difficult to see how
the :Government would be able to disavow it,
and yield the men under a threat of war, even 5f
their convictions or policy should impel them to do
so. Thus for a few days war between Great Britain
and the Northern States seemed almost inevitable.

" But we are happy to be able to inform you that
during the past three days there has been a most
salutary and extraordinary change in public senti-
ment here and throughout the country. It was, to a
great extent, a game of brag' after all, and none the
less so that the people had deceived themselves quite
as much if not more than they deceived others. No new
light of importance has by the recent arrivals from
Europe been shed on the question. The only fresh
point in the arguments raised by the English or
French press is that of the breach of form on the part
of Capt.-Wilkes (even supposing him right in treating
Alessrs.Mason and Slidell as contraband of war) in not
bringing the vessel into port to be adjudicated upon
by a prize court ; yet, whereas a week ago nine out
of every ten men would tell you that England
might threaten as she pleased, but the prisoners
would never be given up, now the balance of opinion
is quite the other way. It is evidently coming to
be the general feeling that the prisoners are not
worth fighting for, and people hail with satisfac-
tion the news from Washington that ' the Presi-
dent is determined to avoid a foreign war.' The
commercial classes see clearly enough that it would
insure the triumph of the South, and thus be, as
they term it, the destruction of the country. 'though
the answer of the Government to Lord Lyons is not
given, it is evident that in the minds of the people
who really rule, good sense has already triumphed
over passion and prejudice. The Government will,
therefore, be free to act as its interests dictate, and
they assuredly point to the preservation of peace
with Great Britain at all costs. The idea that the
Government seek a war with that country, as an
opportunity of retiring from the contest with the
South, is quite untenable, and it is, of course, ridi-
culed by all Americans. They have still the firmest
faith in their power to re-annex the South upon
their own terms, whereas a retirement from the
contest under the pressure of a foreign war, would
imply a recognition of the Southern Confederacy
upon terms dictated by the latter. When taken in
connection with the fact that the North still be-
lieves in its power to conquer the South the idea
will, indeed, appear at once too absurd to need re-
futation.

Upon a deliberate review of the delicate and
apparently extremely hazardous relations of this
country with Great Britain, we are inclined to be-
lieve war between the two nations now more distant
than we thought it before the present complication
arose. The American Government had, for some
time past, acted upon a presumption that England's
interest in the preservation of peace with them were
so great that she would bear any number of petty
indignities rather than make thorn a cause of war.
This idea will now probably be modified, and there
may be a little more of that respect shown to
British subjects which they are accustomed to re-
ceive in other foreign countries, and fewer arrests
of them without process of law, or opportunities for
their justification or defence.

"But the recent excitement has naturally turned
the minds of all interested in the cotton trade to the
question of the probable effect upon that trade of a
rupture between the two COllll tries, should it unfor-
tunately occur. Is England, in that case, to receive
SO large a supply of cotton from the Southern States,
and to find so large a demand for her goods as to com-
pensate her in a pecuniary sense for the sacrifices of
the war ? This will, of course, depend upon two
points, with regard to which, no opinion is worth
much—viz., the probable duration of the present con-
test in America, if allowed to proceed undisturbed,
and the probable duration of the war between Eng-
land and the Northern States, should it once begin.
But, while no reliable opinion can be formed on these
points, some estimate may be arrived at of the imme-
diate results to English commerce of an outbreak
of war. The letters from Liverpool show that very
mistaken notions prevail there as to the probable
receipts of cotton during the remainder of the pre-
sent season. The presumption appears to be that
the bulk of the crop would be shipped. Here, the
opposite extreme of opinion prevails; and what
with the blocking up of the Southern ports by fleets
of stone-laden ships, a policy of emancipation and
arming of the slaves, and consequent reduction of
Southern society into a state of chaos, the swarm
ing of privateers in the Gulf, burning and destroy-
ing where the opportunity of taking prizes into
port might not exist, a consequent state of uncer-
tainty which would suspend all banking credits
usually applied to the conveyance of cotton across
the Atlantic, an excessive rate of insurance and rate
of freight, and American shipping, instead of being
available for the transport of the crop, being en-
gaged in destroying those British ships bold enough
to venture into the trade ; with all these risks to
contend against, the general idea of merchants here
conversant with the trade is that very little cotton
would be able to run the gauntlet, it being con-
tended that it would be an extreme estimate to
suppose that 500,000 bales would reach Europe,
which one-third would probably go to the Con-
tinent. Our own estimate would be considerably
higher than this, but not more than double this
amount. Supposing war decided upon by the
15th of January in England and orders sent to
Admiral Milne to raise the blockade, it would
certainly b 2, sixty days before any number of
English or foreign vessels, which are no ;v scat-
tered abroad, and few nearer than Europe,
could be ready to load at New Orleans and Mobile.
The receipt of cotton from the interior would be
equally slow. The great majority of the steamers
which convey cotton to New Orleans in ordinary
times are owned at St. Louis, Louisville, and Cin-
cinatti. These will, of course, continue to lie idle
at the North as at present. Of those owned at the
South, the men who usually navigated them, as well
as the dray men, levee men, press men, &c., are
now serving with the army, and, in most cases, en-
listed for the duration of the war. The railways
are already so overcrowded with freight and troops
for the army that sugar, which costs 3c. at New

Orleans, brings 15c. at Richmond. Thus, cotton.
would come in slowly and most expensively even to
New Orleans and Mobile. We assume that the
promptitude of the British fleet would prevent the
sinking of ships at these ports, but undoubtedlyeif
' this is not already effectually accomplished at the
Atlantic ports, it would be done on the first decla-
ration of war—some 50 stone-laden ships being
already available for the purpose ; and, though the
vessels may be easily blown up, that would be a
work of time, and the stones would reman block-
ing up channels already barely deep enough to
admit ocean-going vessels. To remove the stones,
embedded, as they would speedily become, in sand,
would be a most difficult undertaking, and not
likely to be accomplished during the present sea-
son. Upon the whole, it is probable that an esti-
mate of 1,000,000 bales as likely to be shipped to
Europe before the Ist of September, due there be-
fore the Ist of November (say, 700,000 bales to
Great Britain and 300,000 bales to the Continent),
would, in the event of war, be suffieiently liberal.
"Nor can it be supposed that the price could be
very moderate in view of the many difficulties to be
overcome, the high river and railway freights, high
press charges, known deficiency of the crop, and
certain short planting of the ensuing one, as every
effort will be made to increase the supply of grain
and provisions, and reduce still more the old depen-
dence upon the North. The planters, too, witness-
ing the present high prices in other markets,
particularly in the North, where middling cotton is
worth 40c. per lb., will have very inflated ideas of
the price the small supply they have in market
should bring. Supposing them to establish the price
of 15c. per lb., shipping charges lc., freight 2d, and
insurance 25 per cent., the cost " to sell" in Liver-
pool would be 13d. per lb., and that this price would
be supported upon so small an American supply
there can be no question, particularly under the
stimulus of the great demand for cotton goods and
all other manufactures which would ensue upon the
opening of the Southern ports. It may be worthy of
mention that during the last American war 10d. to
13d. freight was paid, but• this was for uncompressed
bales. It may safely be presumed that the value of
every bale of cotton brought across the Atlantic
would be returned to the Southern ports in manu-
factures or in foreign produce, and as cotton at 40c.
per lb. is being profitably manufactured in New
England, the South would undoubtedly willingly
give a price which would enable English manufac-
turers to pay 13d. for the raw material.
" Our conclusion is, that in the fall in price from
is to 10d which took place at Liverpool upon the
fear of war, holders were unnecessarily alarmed, and
that if they desire to keep their mills at work Eng-
lish spinners must bend to circumetances and con-
sider ls. per lb. a very reasonable price. We have
shown that cotton is not likely to be obtained lower
from this country while the present contest lasts,
even in case of a Europ: an Power engaging in the
struggle. Nor, we fear, will an adequate supply
be attracted from new fields of supply without a
liberal inducement in the price offered.
" As regards the prospect of any arrangement Fe-
tween the North and Sonth, it seems to us a's distant
as ever. On both sides the most perfect confidence
of ultimate victory exists. Neither will admit even
the possibility of a doubt upon the subject. The
Washington Government are in a pecuniary strait
at this moment, but they will doubtless find a way
of getting over it as soon as the question with
England is settled. If not, they can at any moment
resort to the mode already practised in the South,
and to which all countries have usually been re-
duced during long wars—the manufacture of paper
money, made legal tender by the State. There is
at present so large a stock of gold in the country—
estimated at 80,000,000 dollars more than last year
—that for some time the premium on gold would
be trifling. This system all intelligent business
men are already preparing for, as it is considered
inevitable.—Very respectfully yours,
" NETLL BROTHERS."