The Sun.
London, England, 1865-02-20 00:00:00

tively. The North is so inflated wit h the pride
of victory as very generally to flatter itself with
the idea that is the true explanation of the
crises. There is, however, a third theory put
forward by men who are, or who claim to be, behind
the scenes, which asserts that it is not the South,
but the North, that is at this moment the weaker
party ; that the South holds the scales of its destiny
in its own hand ; that the recent developments of
French policy in Northern Mexico are sufficient to
prove that the Emperor Napoleon M. is willing to
recognise the South, and has made up his mind to
do so; that if he takes the initiative Mexico, Brazil;
Spain, Austria, Italy, the Pope, and last of all Great
Britain will follow; and that in return for a; recogn',._
tion which will eventually secure their independe-doe
by opening to their ships of war the principal -ports
of the world the Confederate Government w;l1 esta-
blish free trade with Europe, Mexico, and nrazil, and
enact a hostile--a prohibitory tariff against the North.
It is added—as I surmised in letters written before
the rumours of peace assumed such large proportions
as they exhibit to-day, that Mr. Lincoln and his Go-
vernment are fully aware of this danger, and are
willing, for the sake of commercial, political, and
other advantages to the North, to snatch the Prize of
a Southern alliance from France and England, and
temporarily forego the darling object of re-union, in
the hope that what is now unattainable may become
obtainable hereafter, when the two sections shall
have fought side by side in a foreign war. The
scheme was originally mooted in the South, and was
first divulged in the Times in one of my communi-
cations from Niagara Falls •in September last, and
is to the effect that if the North will recognise the
independence of the South there shall be an alli-
ance offensive and defensive .between the two Re-
publics for the vindication of the Monroe doctrine,
for the expulsion of the Emperor Maximilian and
the French from Mexico, for the annexation of
Cuba and the West India Islands to the South, and
of Canada and British America to the North. Fur-
ther, that the South shall make a commercial treaty
with the North of which the main elements shall be
an export duty upon cotton and other Southern com-
modities to Europe, a Southern tariff as stringent
against British and French manufacturers as that of
the North, and complete, unconditional free trade
between North and South. If out of the new cir-
cumstances of the two republics war were to grow
up either against France or Great Britain, or both,
it is alleged that the South will enter into hostilities
against those Powers quite as readily as the North.
These, it is said, are the terms which, combined with
the total abolition of slavery in the Border States,
would satisfy all parties. But if the speculators who
indulge in this glowing anticipation are asked of
what States, under the new arrangement, the South
would consist, an unexpected difficulty presents
itself. To which side are Maryland and Delaware
to belong ? What becomes of Western Virginia ?
And whither shall Missouri, Tennessee, and Ken-
tucky betake themselves ? No one can tell. The
only solution offered is that those States shall decide
their own destiny by the votes of their whole people.
This is a serious, if it be not an insurmountable dif-
ficulty, but it seems to offer no terrors to the ima-
gination of a large class of the Northern people.
It will be observed in Europe that amid these
explanations of the rear state of affairs—one of
which must be correct, though which of the
three it is at this moment-impossible to say—there
is not one which is consistent with the idea of the
peace of the world. The first presupposes the con-
tinuance of the civil war in America until the utter
exhaustion of the South, or the armed intervention
of Europe. The second and third equally resup-
pose a war against the European Powers who have
any footing upon this continent. In the second
case war would gratify the warlike passions of the
American people, both of North and South," and
would tend in popular opinion to strengthen and
anneal the broken links of their ancient partnership;
the third would lead to war in fulfilment of a bargain
which would have immense attactions for manufac-
turing and slave-hating New England and Pennsyl-
vania as well as for Mississippi and the Carolinas.
Whatever be the result of the conference with the
President or„the Vice-President of the Confederacy,
they cannot tut be of the highest importance. Not
only the peace of this continent will depend upon
the decisions of the next few days, but .that of
Europe may be involved. Of one thing, however,
the British public may be well assured—Great
Britain has no friends in America, except among a
few men of the higher order of intellect, who are not
represented in Congress, who take no part in politics
or public life, and who hold scrupulously aloof from
a system of ultra-Democratic government in which
they have no faith, and for which they feel no re-
spect. Peace is no sooner believed to be possible
than the annexation of Cana& is threatened.
America imagines herself first in the world's coun-
cils, ruling the seas, grasping universal dominion,
dictating the independence of Ireland, and crushing
down Great Britain to the rank of a third-rate
Power, without weight or authority in Christendom.
And it is but sober though melancholy truth to
affirm that at this moment, when peace seems more
probable than at any previous point in the great
civil war, the public exultation receives its sweetest
stimulant in the idea that England shall be called to
account for what is called her " perfidious neu-
trality," as well as for the damage inflicted upon
American commerce by what, with a little abuse of
words, are called the " British pirates," the Alabama
the Florida, the Tallahassee, and the Shenandoah.
Under other circumstances the constitutional
abolition of slavery by vote of Congress would have
attracted much more attention than it has re-
ceived. Passed by the requisite majority of two-
thirds in the House of Representatives, ratified im-
mediately by the State of Illinois, and to be ratified
within a few days, or perhaps hours, by New York,
Massachusetts, and other Northern States, it has
been hailed with salvos of artillery and ringing of
joy bells in Washington, Boston, and elsewhere, but
it has not excited any great amount of commentary,
except in the columns of the anti-slavery and reli-
gious journals. In so far as that vote declared that
slavery shall no longer exist in any portion of the
United States, it merely proclaimed an existing fact.
In the de facto States of the Union, the only States
in which a vote of the Federal Congress has any
validity, slavery has either disappeared in conse-
quence of the lawful action of the State Legislatures,
or is in process of extirpation by such constitutional
and effectual means as render wholly supererogatory
the interference of Congress. Until the Union be
restored by force or compromise Northern legisla-
tion upon Southern slavery is as futile as if Congress
were by " Yeas" and " Nays" to abolish slavery in
Brrzil, or to enact universal suffrage and annual
Parliaments in Great Britain. Its right to meddle
with the question in the South is in process of arbi-
trament by the sword; and until the sword decides,
its votes are nugatory and speeches empty words
that signfy nothing but a powerless intention. In
one view of the case, however, the vote of Tuesday
is not without importance. It places a new barrier
between North and South, and renders reunion more
difficult than before. rossibly this was the object
of its promoters. It looks far more like an arrow
aimed at the Confederacy than an act of statesman-
ship, and will in all probability be accepted as such by
the South. That slovery is doomed to extinction on the
North American Continent is all but certain ; but if
the Confederates retain the independence for which
they have so gallantly struggled, the final settlement
with the negro and the conditions and bases of his
freedom will remain with the South, and not with
the North, and are in no way affected by the harm-
less thunders of Boston or Washington. Like Mr.
Lincoln's proclamations in the same vein, the vote
of Congress is subject to the fatal limitation of
want of power, besides being chargeable with the
demerit of being animated far less by the desire of
conferring a benefit upon the slaves than of
vengeance upon their masters.

FEB. 7.
It is a moot point in all circles whether the Peace

Conference in the Hamp
icae s s
exhausted
failure.
n
mnenoansedwmhoonebyelieinvectohuratagtheeanSdouitnh
hope, by no means an inconsiderable section of the
Northern people—assert that the negotiations, in
scope, spirit, and tendency, were all that the most
ardent lovers of peace could desire ; that Mr. Lin-
coln's sole condition was the Union, which, if con-
ceded by the South, all questions of amnesty, debt,
and confiscation would be settled in the most gene-
row; and conciliatory spirit ; and that even the
emancipation of the slaves, which Mr. Lincoln
thought essential to future harmony of action among
the States of the restored Union, would not only be
made as gradual as the South desired, but would be
accompanied with a liberal compensation to the
slaveowners. They add that as Messrs. Stephens,
Hunter, and Campbell were merely emissaries, and
not plenipotentiaries, they could do no more than
listen respectfully to Mr. Lincoln's ultimatum, and
return forthwith to Richmond to report to Mr.
Davis. In due time it is promised that the nego-
tiations will be resumed on this basis ; and that the
world will witness the glorious—and to Europe
the threatening--spectacle of a restored Union,
trained in war, hardened in suffering, and ready for
any enterprise of pith and, moment, that may teach
all other nations which presume to incur its wrath,
or excite its jealousy, that America and not Europe
represents modern ideas, modern civilisation, and
modern power.
But, although this is the notion of the credolous
multitude, it is not that of the wiser few in the po-
litical circles of Washington and the financial centres
of New York. There is not a particle of evidence to
prove that the South is exhausted, though there is
much to prove that it is dissatified with the conduct
of the war, and with the preferences which Mr.
Davis is alleged to have exhibited in the appoint_
ment of incompetent and the dismissal of competent
generals. Neither does the reported evacuation of
Mobile, or the approaching surrender or evacuation of
Wilmington, and Charleston, and probably Rich-
mond itself, lead careful and unimpassioned stu-
dents of current history to believe that any or all of
these events would sensibly damage the cause of the
South, or do it greater injury than the loss of a mo-
mentary prestige, which the fortune of war at other
points- might suddenly restore. Gen. Lee has more
than once declared that the temporary loss of the
Atlantic cities would be of advantage to the Confe-
deracy, and-that if he were relieved of the duty of
defending them, he would be better able than ever
to teach the North what the war meant, and the
scale on which it should be conducted. As General
Sherman—who if success be the test of ability—is
by far the ablest general in the Federal army, is of
the same opinion, it is argued that the cause of peace
has not been advanced by the Conference, and that
the only result will be to give each of the two Pre-
sidents a text to expatiate upon to his people in
support of a more vigorous prosecution of hostili-
ties. The theory that the Confederate Goverment
is really " the master of the situation," and that it
has received positive assurances from its agents in
Europe that the Emperor Napoleon will recognise
its independence early in March, in return for cer-
tain commercial and political advantages, grows
rapidly in favour, and is entertained by many who
believe that Mr. Lincoln will prove more than a
match for the Emperor in diplomacy, and secure for
the North those terms which the South is supposed
to be willing to concede to any power that shall
acknowledge and make alliance with it. The Ame-
ricans are in the habit of boasting that the petty
experiences of the old and effete world of Europe
and Asia do not apply to their young and vigorous
' country, or serve as lights to guide them in their
brilliant career ; that they have a way of their own
of doing things ; that they make war on a grander
scale than the paltry Xerxes, Sennacheribs, Caasars,
Genghis-Khans, Napoleons, or Wellingtons of by-
gone days, and that when it suits them to make
peace they will make it in a mode and at a time
which shall astonish such " one-horse nations" as
Great Britain and France, and be generally a " cau- '
tion to the universe."
Whatever be their ideas on the subject of French
recognition, the -Wall-street people do not encou-
rage the hope of speedy peace. Gold keeps remark-
ably steady amid all the exciting rumours of the last
few days, and if it moves at all moves upwards. The
failure of peace negotiations means more money ;
and no one knows where it is to come from, unless
from the printing-presses of the Treasury depart-
ment at Washington ; and it is not only the ques-
tion of money but of men that is embarrassing to
all who admit the probability of continued hostili-
ties even for short a period as a year. Supposing
that the recent negotiations have utterly failed, that
the Northern Government will listen to no terms
that do not include, and are not based upon, the
restoration of the Union; that the South is
equally firm and intractable on the question
of independence, and that no European Power,
or combination of Powers, will cut the knot
of the difficulty by recognition, to be followed, if
necessary, by armed intervention, the North will
find itself face to face with these its two oldest and
most imperious perplexities and dangers. A scar-
city of men and a want of hard money will continue
to embarass if not to confound its schemes. Great
as are its resources, and obstinate as may its deter-
minaiion to sink all things for " Union," of what
value are resources that cannot be utilized, and de-
terminations that are backed only by moral and not
by physical agencies ? The revelations of the stu-
pendous frauds committed upon the Government
and upon the several States and townships engaged
in furnishing recruits by the bounty brokers and
the officials whom they have bribed to aid in their
warrant,forgeries ifanndortobtaberinoemsaperel,ethnoeugGho
voefrtnmhenisent to re-
nounce
elvest°
all future reliance upon such a mode of
m recruiting its armies—a mode that costs immense
sums of money, and procures either worthless re-
cruits or " bounty-jumpers," as they are called,
who no sooner enlist than they desert, sometimes
receiving the bounty-money no less than twenty-
seven times in as many different towns. The native
born American no longer volunteers his services ;
he has ceased to do so for at least two years, except
in cases where his ,term of enlistment has expired
and he has renewed it for the sake of the bounty
money. The only other sources of supply are the
emancipated negroes of the Sea Islands and the
border, or the free-born negroes of the North, and
the Irish, German, and to a smaller extent, the
English immigration. These combined do not suffice
to :maintain the Federal armies on the footing at
which they stood when Grant and Sherman com-
menced the campaign of 1864.. Since May last the
Northern Generals are reported to have lost by the
casualties of the battle-field, of the camp, of the
swamp, of the hospital, and of the nefarious trade of
bounty-jumping, at least 200,000 men, and have
not been supplied with as many as 50,000 to the
gap. The Government threatens conscription
to
frighten the great cities into redoubnlef
procure volunteers, but hesitates to
financial situation more pro
Nor is the
to
the 15th JanuarY—a
dorceeff°irttslets7
armed resistance to its authority shoulde be the con-
sequence.mising. For 60 days prior.
preparations for
expenses of the
the capture of WI
period which includiedmintherteour_
Government exceeded $
low estimate' which places its ordi-
nary 000te,h0e00intwo months,
wibthutnot
and it is a very
at less than one thousand mil_
The army is not paid •
any-
thingn lionsa 1-
pere likePe annum.nrigtatlllarity, a fact well known
hitherto published except by journals hostile to the
Administration though now admitted by so faithful
and honest a supporter as the Tribuue, which
sounded the alarm on the subject so lately as Satur-
day last, in depreciating the outlay of $20,000,000
for frontier forts and defences on the Canadian fron-
tier as beyond the ability of the nation to lavish at
a time when its veteran armies were unpaid. ,4 Our
heroes in the field," said that journal, " are vainly

asking for their .%)- FA a
clothe their needhyardwiceeasrnac:dndpicthtailnde:esn t;°aufemeed
bri-
gadesand have had no dollars.for their last six months'
service,mutinous and unservice-
able,nobody deals with the Go-
and
because arel becomingpaid ;
Go-
vernment who can find any other customer, because
payment is withheld to the last moment, and often
made in certificates of indebtedness; which must be
sold at a heavy discount; everything sags and drags for
want of money, because the national credit is dubious."
Three months ago the friends of the GovernMent
would have declared such an exposition as this to
be treasonable, but it now passes without challenge
or contradiction, or even a word of comment. If it
were possible to whip up the enthusiasm of the people
to its ancient effervescence, if the roads of New
England were to swarm with volunteers in the sacred
cause of the negro and of New York and the Middle
States in the sacred cause of the Union, though the
difficulty as regards men would be removed, there
would still remain the immense difficulty of money,
which the Tribune so eloquently deplores. Petroleum,
cotton, and corn may bring gold from Europe in
exchange, California may supply the precious metal
as abundantly as ever, but all these commodities,
though the supply be augmented from month to
month, or even from day to day, will not provide
means to carry on for another year such a war as
was waged in the last without greater loans than
uhr beengereyeentbacka than
contraaucty aneda,ore
financier
more ab
has daredundantissuteos
recommend. Nttil:phdte:(remMt:•:uid.oeFessenden nor the Govern-
ment,
alarm.p
upon
t , norfui
Tvtany
aetr in
the
or
et
hoeu
et
uofreouffic
currency
circumstancese , looks i
is without
a
puzzler
to all
haste bouftfoaofies to rush
few fanatics,
twhello
with
accomplishmentthe
pro-
verbial .
of what angels might dread, insist that there is
nothing but a forced conscription and unlimited
issues of paper money that can enable the Federal
Government to restore the Union, and constantly
urge the adoption of these measures. As regards the
conscription, they believe that the country (to use
their own phrase) will grin and bear it ;" and as
regards the indefinite increase of the debt, and the
equally indefinite depreciation of the currency, they
continually assert that if the worst comes to the
worst the debt can be repudiated ; that such re-
pudiation will only make a certain number of
rich men poor ; that the resources of the
country will remain undiminished ; and that such
quondam rich men can easily start afresh in the
world and be little the worse for the enforced con- '
tributions of their whole wealth to the support of
" the best Government the world ever saw." It is
palpable and notorious that the idea of repudiation
has few terrors to the American mind. No one can
mingle much in any society where politics are dis- .
cussed without discovering very soon that the labour-
ing classes and the poorer people engaged in trade,
commerce, and agriculture, who own no Govern-
ment stock and pay no direct taxes, who have the
voting power in their hands under the system of
universal suffrage, and feel to their cost that the
war has deprived the dollar of half its value and
raised the price of the necessaries of life 250 per
cent., will have no scruple, if the case be brought
before them, to vote for the application of what
they call a " mighty big sponge" to the whole of
the Federal debt. And this, as Mr. Lincoln might
say, " suggests a little anecdote." An eminent judge
was recently waited upon by a large and respectable
deputation of his fellow-citizens and asked to " run"
as candidate for the governorship of his native State.
" No, thank you," he replied ; " I will not ' run'
for any office' just now. My time has not come.
In 1868 I intend to ' run' for the Presidency in sue-
cession to Mr. Lincoln, upon the broad platform of
Repudiation. If I do, I guess I shall carry every-
thing before me."

The war news becomes of renewed importance by
the close of the suspension, whichever it may be, of
the peace negotiations. Grant's army, aslannounced
by telegraph a week ago, was put in motion immedi-
ately on Mr. Lincoln's departure from Hampton
Roads, and its first operation only publicly announced
this evening, was a flank march in the rear of Peters-
;
. burgh, on the banks of a small stream called Hatcher's
Run. A sharp skirmish with the Confederates was
the only result, but the indications are that a great
battle is likely to be fought before many hours,
unless General Lee, as some suppose, has resolved
on evacuating Petersburg for the purpose of sending
reinforcements to General Beauregard to oppose
the march of General Sherman on Branchville, or
Charleston. Sherman at last accounts was within
30 miles of the last-named city, impeded by the
morasses of the vicinity as well as by the bad
weather. A heavy snow storm, extending according
to the telegraphic despatchesfrom Maine to Virginia,
and possibly into the Carolinas, set in this after-
noon, and after covering the earth four inches deep
has been succeeded by a pelting and continuous fall
of rain and sleet, filling the streets of this wretchedly-
paved city with mire and slush and half-melted snow
far above the ankles of pedestrians, and doubtless
rendering all army movements in Virginia impossible
until a frost shall once more harden the roads.
Late and very direct and trustworthy reports from
the South represent the Confederates to be confident
of their ability to carry on the campaign of 1865
without the aid of negro soldiers, except for camp
duty. Large reinforcements have been sent to South
Carolina. The spirit of the men and their officers
is buoyant and determined, and all speak encourag-
ingly of their ability to try conclusions with Sherman.
The Federal fleet has not been able to advance up
Cape Fear River on account of obstructions, and
the opportunity for the easy capture of Wilmington
has been lost. The fleet is now within four miles
of Fort Anderson, on the opposite side of the river
to that on which the land forces are stationed, and
t°ForatttaFciskh je;t
The
eatcteomnfpetderhaaste apsrisyoentersbeetan
taken
nadaet
express much indignation against General Bragg.
Notwithstanding the great peril to which the fort
had been subjected on the first attempt by Admiral
Porter, when, in fact, it would have been com-
pelled to surrender almost without a blow if
Butler had had the nerve to assault, they allege
that Bragg neglected to take proper precautions
to repel a second attack. He had one of the
best corps of Lee's veteran army under his com-
mand, and yet, they say, he intrusted the defence to
a few raw troops from North Carolina, one regiment
of whom surrendered without firing a shot.

SALMON FISHINGS.—The season for 1865 com-
menced on the 11th inst., and in our day was unpreceden-
tedly successful. The number of fish taken by net at the
top of the river was more than sufficient to pay the rent of
the whole year. After satisfying the local demand about
10 cwt. was sent south, and since then there has been a,
largisupply of clean run fish. It has been remarked that
the average weight has been greater than on almost any
previous occasion, many of the fish exceeding 201 b., and ona
Saturday, the first
of them weighing 301 b. Nearly 200 salmon were taken in
the Duncan and Dochfour waters, and it is evident that
there is a steady run of fish from the fact that since the
opening day there has been no tide blank at the Friar's
Truseteeamernso.utthOhatnfa
Shot, the first
takenseason,pool
ta h number
e uo
upper
pt
ehre
or river. ent
erg.
rol
se sttwhtwhee
were
err mouth
n unoccupied.oo a
huu:ho r
nof but
had
hnaeoc
river Mr. Tait caught a few salmon in the stell fishing be-
quetsrtoiuont,
ofan buthne-
greatttothl
The fishing
longing to the Harbour
an average fishing. The De 11 produced salmon on
fefrrloeemane dtafihysehoSfieahyse we learn that about 140
on the opening day, besides a
bag
We netsr
e vernoumber of salmon
n34lvere taken
Saturday and 19 on Monday.
st a kene tbsyainced.
is a good deal ob-
structeddaries on the Ness is likely to be litigated.
Dochfour and Duncan fishings The march of the
be close by the fisherman's bothy
generally considered to
s bothy on the reach between the
canal and Andrew's Pool,
yards more but Dochfour claims about 80
of the stream than has hitherto, we understand,
been fished in his interest. The tenant of the Dunean fish-
bags shot his nets fromrupte the bothy, but was forcibly inter-
d, and
an inter&
t has since. been served upon him, re-
stricting the extent of his privileges.—lnverness Courier.
The Bey of Tunis has accorded A
thean man to all.
Tunisian tribes who have
taken refuge in
Algeria.

Winter
ADTERTISEMENT.]—HoIIoway Ointment and Pills.—
Winter coughs are alike distressing to the patient and
annoying to those around him. The mode of cure is
simple, innocent, and effective. Holloway's ointment
should be thoroughly rubbed upon the front of the chest
and between the blade bones twice a day, while the blot)/
is undergoing purification by appropriate doses of his pills-
A double result is thus secured: the air tubes are relieved
of accumulated phlegm, and the lungs are freed from any'
impure 'circulation. These favouring conditions manores
the cause, and the cough ceases. By the same
.rnealls
8.11(1
with equal facility the treatment by Holloway's inestimable
remedies will overcome ulcerated and sore throats,
diptheria, bronchitis, pleurisy, and pulmonary congestive
complaints.