The Sun.
London, England, 1865-12-16 00:00:00

Movements of Cotton in America•

Mr. William N. Neill writes from Memphis, Tennessee,
;o the Liverpool Post as follows regarding the probable next

year's cotton crop r—
eAs regards the probable planting next season, it is too
soon to make a close estimate, but the prospects at present
are very gloomy. The general belief is that not much over
1,000,000 bales will be produced; and upon the most
iavourable view that can be taken of the question, unless
things alter very much between now and January, we can-
not rely with anything like confidence on more then
1,500,000, of which this country, north and south, will
require to retain 800,000 bales, unless prices rule exceS-
sively high. I may, however, repeat .that I think the
blame for short growth should rest very much on the
moral, mental, and pecuniary incapacity of the planters t°,
adapt themselves to the new order of things, at least
much as with the negro. The latter, however, is now veri
anxious to have done with plantation life, and either to
have a plot of land of his own or to live in towns. It will
take time for the re-organisation of so gigantic an ludas:
try as the cotton culture in the South. The almost tuil"
versal opinion throughout this country now is that next
summer cotton will range towards one dollar per pound'
and such a belief always goes far towards its own reeliSa-
tion. It must be at least admitted that after the old stock
now coming into market are disposed of, all in the future
is vague and uncertain except tho large consumption.
That is beyond all question, and it will continue and gain
upon the supply for at least two years from January nOti;
for even if the crop after next, viz., that of 1867, show
lu
be a largo one, it will be January, 1868, before
any weight of it can visit the European marks°
You will have gathered from the foregoing that I thin);
and indeed am convinced, that the time has come When,
you may safely and probably with a large profit line
cotton from this country. We have deferred executing
any of the discretionary orders we hold till December, Of
till we see signs of a decrease of receipts, from our con:
viction that until then prices would fall. We think 11,
however, unsafe to delay any longer. A series of moi
ur fortnightly shipments beginning in December would
probably have in their favor a rising market. It ilisJ
appear that in these considerations I ignore the supPile°
from other countries. Ido not do so, but it must /34
evident that the American supply is sufficient to control
the market, Whatever is the range of prices in Decnnibet;
while you are receiving or expecting our large supply o'
the old and new crops together, they will begin to adveue°
in January if (as we think it certain) the receipts then
show a falling off."
THE DEPOSED KING.—In 1848 kings out of eraployinell
were plenty in Europe. In America the deposed King. °
1861 is not precisely out of business, but is fast resuming
his old supremacy, so far as the wants of the world sr°.
concerned. It was imagined by some that the war word('
forever deprive American cotton of the lead in the markets
of the world, but the experiment has failed, so tar es it
aimed to stimulate a production of equal quantity or value
in other countries. The consumption for four years haS,
been growing less and less on account of the increase 0'
price, and the point is at last reached where the demand
must be supplied. The Commercial Chronicle estimates
the present supply at all the ports of the United States et
400,000 bales, and the receipts from the interior average
6,000 bales a-day, so that in six weeks our stock at current
prices would be adequate to a twelve months' consumption
for the United States. Estimating the cotton in the South
at the close of the war at 1,500,000 bales, at the port°
60,000, and the crop of 1865 at 300,000, our supply from
May, 1865, to September, 1866, would amount to 1,860,006
bales. Our own consumption during the same time may
be put at 900,000 bales, leaving about 960,000 bales for
shipment and stock. Of this quantity about 700,000 bale!
would be exported. If an export tax of three or fil)
cents a pound could be laid upon this, it would add, from
the pockets of the foreign consumers, a handsome sum to
our revenue.
The Chronicle estimates the crop of 1866 at calthe
1,000,000 bales. A small amount indeed, but,
rn
present and prospective state of the Southern labor marlo3l;
quite likely to bo true. India, Africa, Egypt, Brazil, an
all the known and possible sources ofsupply, have entered
into earnest competition to fill the p ace made vacant bld,
their great rival ; and, although cotton has been produee,..
and in considerable quantities, it can maintain no slices:
ful comparison with our own. American skies and
and
seem to impart to this wonderful fibre a strength 9;
evenness which it does not have elsewhere ; and cc'tt°
though it could not be prostituted to the despotic uses °,l
a slaveholding power, will yet be " king " in a better an
more ennobling sense than before.—. Boston Journal.