The Sun.
London, England, 1865-04-19 00:00:00

Prospects of Future Gotton Supply.

(From the Economist)

Early in the year we presented our readers with an
estimate of the probable amount of cotton that might be
expected to arrive, and to be available for home consump-
tion, during the course of 1865 ; and at present we see no
reason to mistrust our calculations. As far as the immedi-
diate supply is concerned, we may feel tolerably at ease ;
arrivals have been heavy, large shipments are known to be
on their way or in preparation, and the, stock is larger than
it has been for some years. It was on

Da.
Ist January, 1861
1862
1863
71
1864 575,000
Ist April, 1835
This, as the actual rate of export ;-:::(I consumption, will
last for nearly 20 Weeks; so that there is no feud for any
anxiety at present.

But it is not to be denied that considerable anxiety
does hang over our future supply, and that our prospects
are already creating much uneasiness in .all who look far
ahead. It is by no means improbable, unless great
•caution is exercised, that we may fall very short of cotton
in 1866 and 1867, and that the fluctuations in price may
be as great and mischievous as any we have hitherto ex-
perienced. The fall that has already taken place has been
such as, if not materially to check production, at least
greatly to alarm producers and discourage the vast efforts
recently made to grow cotton wherever it can be grown ;
while the expectation of a still further drop tends to pre-
vent consumption.keeping pace with supply.
The state of the case is simply this—the continued suc7
cesses of the Federal armies, and the supposed, and pro-
bably actual, exhaustion of the South, have impressed
even on the most cautious a conviction that the civil war
in America must be drawing near to its close. Some per-
sons believe that very soon after peace is proclaimed—
all persons believe that, sooner or later after that event
—cultivation will resume its old channels, and that large
quantities of cotton will again reach us from the States,
of a quality • and at a price with which, as formerly, no
other country, or at least few other countries, can compete.
Of course, if this anticipation be correct, those countries
which have only been enabled to send cotton hither
during the anomalous prices that have prevailed of late,
will cease to send it ; and those which have been induced
to send us extraordinary quantities will fall back to their
old moderate amounts. To descend to particulars. Fair
Surat, which last spring was selling at 22d. is now pur-
chasable at 11d. per lb.: ordinary East India, which in
former days used to sell for 3d. and 4d. por lb., and which
last year reached 16d. may now bo had for 6d. ; while
(such is the idea of future probabilities at• Bombay) we
are informed by telegraph that fair . Surat has been sold
there, to be laid down at Liverpool, at Bd. The reduction
in other qualities has been nearly, if not quite, propor-
tionate.

Now, if these prices are to obtain, or if it is expected that
they will obtain, the following results will follow:
First, China and Japan, which last year sent us
52,000,0001 b., will cease to send us any at all. Secondly,
Bengal, and to a certain extent Madras, which last year
sent us between them 350,000 bales. will ship to China (as
they used to do) instead of to England, and will at once
stop any unusual growth into which our high prices may
have tempted them. Thirdly, The Turkish supply, which
has only recently become at all important or reliable, will
again become precarious. Fourthly, Egypt and Brazil
will have a tendency to fall back to their old moderate sup-
ply—say 200,000 bales, as in 1860, instead of 460,000 as in
1864—just in proportion as prices tend back to their old
level. Fifthly, The western and north-western provinces
of India (which, like Egypt, have greatly increased the
average breadth of land under cotton, and have suffered
inconvenience from the diminishes production of food which
was consequent upon the change) will gradually fall back
upon their old habits, and be more likely to send us three
quarters of a million of bales than a million and a quarter
—on which some persons calculated for 1865. Certain it
is that Bd. for Surat will not secure us nearly the same
supply as 22d. would have done.
Thus it would appear as if the actual and expected. drop
in the price of cotton consequent on the imminent—or be-
lieved to be imminent—supply from America after the re-
turn of peace, is likely to reduce our supplies from mis-
cellaneous quarters next year to something like half their
present amounts. But suppose this imminent and anti-
cipated supply from the States does not come—is not
there now and cannot speedily be grown—what will
be our position then ? Is there not a possibility of a
cotton famine as severe as that of 1862, and of prices as
disorganisingly and ruinously high ? Now, what are the
reasonable and unexaggerated probabilities of the Ameri-
can supply ? and are not speculators and manufacturers
frightening themselves with a vain shadow ? Are they not;
at all events, premature by nearly a year and a half in their
anticipations, and are they not discounting their dangers
at a most needless and fatal cost ? In a word, is there any
real reason why cotton, even in the prospect of immediate
peace, should have fallen so low, and must we not, ere
long, have to look for a very serious reaction ?
Let us look at facts. According to the most trust-
worthy information we have been able to collect, no wise
man will base his calculations on a larger estimate of the
available stock of cotton now in the States than one mil-
lion of bales. Of late little has been grown, while much
has been destroyed, much has been spoiled, and a good
deal has been used. Even after peace is restored, and
making every allowance for American energy, and prompti-
tude, it will take a considerable time to re-collect the
scattered population, to re-organise labour, to repair
and re-create the means of transport. We will assume—
what, however, many persons would refuse to admit—that
nearly all the residual negro population in the cotton
States will again be set to that special cultivation, either
under compulsion or inducement of some kind. We will
admit all the suppositions most favourable to a large and
prompt supply. Still, in any case, no fresh cotton worth
mentioning can reach this country in less than eight
months after the next seed-time subsequent to the restora-
tion of peace and order. The seed-time of this year is
past. Granting that the war is over in July, that planta-
tions are restored to their owners, that the healing and
re-organising processes are at once entered upon with the
marvellous enterprise and vigour which characterises our
transatlantic brethren—still it will be February, 1866, be-
fore the new crop can be sown, and October or November
before it can reach England in any quantities. And when
it is ready to come, wo may safely calculate upon three
things—all of which ought to moderate our expecta-
tions. First, that the crop of the first year, and perhaps
oven of the second, will not be like the former ones, three
or three and a half millions of bales, but not more than
two millions at the outside—considering how many of the
plantations have been ruined, and how largo a proportion
of the negro population has been dispersed or died. Se-
condly, that of this moderate crop the Americans them-
selves will want probably one-third at least. And thirdly,
that the cotton will cost more to grow than it did before
the great convulsion, and before it reaches us will be bur-
dened by an export duty of 3d. or 4d. in the lb ; so that in-
stead of being laid down in Liverpool at 61b. a lb, and
yielding a good profit at that price, it will probably cost
from 10d. to is. If this be so, then there is no reason why
Surat at Bd. and 9d. should not hold its ground; and the pre-
sent panic is at once excessive and premature. It will be a
great evil if new and distant countries are discouraged
from growing and forwarding cotton earlier or more deci-
dedly than is necessary. Sooner or later, no doubt, as we
have always said, the United States will beat all other cot-
ton-growing countries out of the market, with the excep-
tion of moderate supplies of special qualities from Bombay,
Egypt, and Brazil ; but it will be later and not sooner, and
we need not augment the catastrophe by anticipating it.

DETERMINED SUICIDES.—An inquest . was held
yesterday by Mr. J. Humphreys, coroner, at the
London Hospital, on the body of Mrs. Elizabeth Francks,
aged 88. It was shown that the deceased had resided at
No. 23, Artillery-street, Spitalfields. For some time past
she had been very feeble and almost imbecile.- On Friday
night she retired to rest at her usual hour, and on the fol-
lowing morning at 3 o'clock she was discovered lying on
the pavement in front of her window. She was bleeding
from a frightful wound in the head. When she was raised
up and carried to the hospital she was found to be dead.
It was believed that she had leaped from the window. The
jury returned an open verdict of "found dead." A second
inquest was held by Mr. Humphreys, at the Golden Lion
tavern, respecting the death of Elizabeth Craig, aged
47. The deceased was a single woman, but had been
in a very low and desponding state for some months
past, apparently without reason. She was discovered
on Friday morning lying in the back yard with a
compound fracture of the skull, which caused death in-
stantandusly. The deceased had placed a table in front
of the window, upon which she stepped, and then preci-
pitated herself from the second-floor window. Verdict—
"
-e..
en
Insanity."
—TB BIRTHS, DEATHS,
seventh
n
Ei AaTi InSu, a AND
l
report
ral, Mr. W. P. Dundas, to Sir George Grey, has just been
MARRIAGES
of the Reg IN
ist SCOTLAND.rar
issued. The report is for the year 1861, in which year,
notwithstanding various adverse influences, the births
were not above their usual proportion ; the deaths were
below the average; while the marriages attained the ave-
rage of former years. The state of elementary education,
the report says, continues satisfactory, seeing that 89.39 per
cent. of the men, and 78.67 per cent. of the women who
married in Scotland in 1861 were able to sign their names.
Year after year it appears that as many women are able
to sign their names in the marriage register in Scot-
land as men in England. Under the head of marriages
it is stated, as the result of statistical investigation,
that the married women of Scotland are more prolific than
those of England, seeing that, during the year 1861, every
314 wives at the child-bearing ages gave birth to 100 chil-
dren in Scotland; whereas it required 355 wives at the
same ages for every 100 births in England. As like results
appear year after year, it may be assumed as proved that
the Scottish married female is more prolific than the Eng-
lish married female. The Registrar-General also directs
attention to an inquiry made for the first time into the com-
parativemortality of the married and the unmarried women
at each quinquennial period of life. The results arrived at,
he says, are startling, and particularly merit the attention
of those engaged in life assurance.