The Sun.
London, England, 1862-01-04 00:00:00

A COMMERCIAL VIE TV OF THE

AMERICAN CRISIS.

We have been favoured with a copy of the fol-
lowing interesting letter :

" New York, Dec. 19.

Gentlemen,—The latest adviecs from England
show that the internalional question raised hy the
arrest of Messrs. Mason and Slidell on board the
mail steamer Trent has assumed much more serious
proportions than the American people were pre.
pared for; and the bearings of the imbroglio upon
the cotton trade become therefore extremely inte-
resting. The first emotion when the news of that
event became public in this country was a mingled
one of surprise and delight with the boldness and
neatness of the exp:oit, and at finding such impor-
tant enemies in Northern custody, and of fear that
the act was illegal and impossible, to maintain.
Even the President himself admitted that the pri-
soners would probably have to he given up. But
forthwith the press of the country—whose main
policy is to charm their readers and increase their
own popularity by telling the people whatever
they will like to hear—devoted themselves heart
and soul to the work of convincing themselves and
their readers that the act was perfectly legal, in
accordance with precedent, and especially with
English decisions. It is easy to convince those who
wish to believe, and as all the argument was on
one side, with none to expose its fallacies, sophis-
tries, and misrepresentations, it is not surprising
that the mass of the people should have been speedily
satisfied. And being convinced as to the legality
of the act, neither was it surprising that among a
people so self-confident as to their power of judging
correctly and so vain of their military strength, a
unanimous determination should be arrived at and
expressed, not, under any circumstances, to part
with the prisoners. The mob desired to hold them,
right or wrong. The more respectable citizens
determined to hold them, because they had already
been so easily convinced that it was right: Every
one has since heard of the ovations given to Captain
Wilkes, the vote of thanks from Congress, and the
compliments paid him by the Secretary of the Navy.
" Under these circumstances, matters assumed a
more and more serious aspect ; for, as the nation
became thus fully committed to an approval of
Captain Wilkes's action, it was difficult to see how
the :Government would be able to disavow it,
and yield the men under a threat of war, even 5f
their convictions or policy should impel them to do
so. Thus for a few days war between Great Britain
and the Northern States seemed almost inevitable.

" But we are happy to be able to inform you that
during the past three days there has been a most
salatary and extraordinary change in public senti-
ment here and throughout the country. It was, to a
great extent, a ' game of brag' after all, and none the
less so that the people had deceived themselves quite
as much if not more than they deceived others. No new
light of importance has by the recent arrivals from
Europe been shed on the question. The only fresh
point in the arguments raised by the English or
French press is that of the breach of form on the part
of Capt. Wilkes (even supposing him right in treating
Alessrs.Mason and Slidell as contraband of war) in not
bringing the vessel into port to be adjudicated upon
by a prize court ; yet, whereas a week ago nine out
of every ten men would tell you that England
might threaten as she pleased, but the prisoners
would never be given up, now the balance of opinion
is quite the other way. It is evidently coming to
be the general feeling that the prisoners are not
worth fighting for, and people hail with satisfac-
tion the news from Washington that the Presi-
dent is determined to avoid a foreign war.' The
commercial classes see clearly enough that it would
insure the ttiumph of the South, and thus be, as
they term it, the destruction of the country. Though
the answer of the Government to Lord Lyons is not
given, it is evident that in the minds of the people
who really rule, good sense has already triumphed
over passion and prejudice. The Government will,
therefore, be free to act as its interests dictate, and
they assuredly point to the preservation of peace
with Great Britain at all costs. The idea that the
Government seek a war with that country, as an
opportunity of retiring from the contest with the
South, is quite untenable, and it is, of course, ridi-
culed by all Americans. They have still the firmest
faith in their power to re-annex the South upon
their own terms, whereas a retirement from the
contest under the pressure of a foreign war, would
imply a recognition of the Southern Confederacy
upon terms dictated by the latter. When taken in
connection with the fact that the North still be-
lieves in its power to conquer the South the idea
will, indeed, appear at once too absurd to need re-
futation.

" Upon a deliberate review of the delicate and
apparently extremely hazardous relations of this
country with Great Britain, we are inclined to be-
lieve war between the two nations now more distant
than we thought it before the present complication
arose. The American Government had, for some
time past, acted upon a presumption that England's
interest in the preservation of peace with them were
so great that she would bear any number of petty
indignities rather than make them a cause of war.
This idea will now probably be modified, and there
may be a little more of that respect shown to
British subjects which they are accustomed to re-
ceive in other foreign countries, and fewer arrests
of them without process of law, or opportunities for
their justification or defence.

"But the recent excitement has naturally turned
the minds of all interested in the cotton trade to the
question of the probable effect upon that trade of a
rupture between the two countries, should it unfor-
tunately occur. Is England, in that case, to receive
SO large a supply of cotton from the Southern States,
and to find so large a demand for her goods as to com-
pensate her in a pecuniary sense for the sacrifices of
the war ? This will, of course, depend upon two
points, with regard to which, no opinion is worth
much—viz., the probable duration of the present con-
test in America, if allowed to proceed undisturbed,
and the probable duration of the war between Eng-
land and the Northern States, should it once begin.
But, while no reliable opinion can be formed on these )
points, some estimate may be arrived at of the imme-
diate results to English commerce of an outbreak
of war. The letters from Liverpool show that very
mistaken notions prevail there as to the probable
receipts of cotton during the remainder of the pre-
sent season. Tho presumption appears to be that
the bulk of the crop would be shipped. Here, the
opposite extreme of opinion prevails ; and what
with the blocking up of the Southern ports by fleets
of stone-laden ships, a policy of emancipation and
arming of the slaves, and consequent reduction of
Southern society into a state of chaos, the swarm •
in g of privateers in the Gulf, burning and destroy-
ing where the opportunity of taking prizes into
port might not exist, a consequent state of uncer-
tainty which would suspend all banking credits
usually applied to the conveyance of cotton across
the Atlantic, an excessive rate of insurance and rate
of freight, and American shipping, instead of being
available for the transport of the crop, being en-
gaged in destroying those British ships bold enough
to venture into the trade ; with all these risks to
contend against, the general idea of merchants here
conversant with the trade is that very little cotton
would be able to run the gauntlet, it being con-
tended that it would be an extreme estimate to
suppose that 500,000 bales would reach Europe, of
which one-third would probably go to the Con-
tinent. Our own estimate would be considerably
higher than this, but not more than double this
amount. Supposing war decided upon by the
15th of January in England and orders sent to
Admiral Milne to raise the blockade, it would
certainly be sixty days before any number of
English or foreign vessels; which are now scat-
tered abroad, and few nearer than Europe,
could be ready to load at New Orleans and Mobile.
The receipt of cotton from the interior would be
equally slow. The great majority of the steamers
which New Orleans in ordinary
times
are convey cotton
Sto. Louis, Louisville, and Cin-
cina
These will, of course, continue to lie idle
owowned
a t
t
a t
thett
.
ilsTorth as at present. Of those owned at the
South, the men who usually navigated them, as well
as the dray men, levee men, press men, &c., are
new serving with the army, and, in most cases, en-
listed for the duration of the war. The railways
are already so overcrowded with freight and troops
for the army that sugar, which costs 3c. at New