The Sun.
London, England, 1862-01-04 00:00:00

AMERICAN COTTON.

,
It must be confessed that our anticipated cotton famine
has hitherto resembled one of those evils which diminish as
they approach, and which are found more manageable in
proportion as they are more closely grappled with. Such,
at any rate, would be the natural conclusion on a retrospect
of 1861. We have got through half the winter without more
distress than has often been created by commercial impru-
dence, and it is even doubted whether the actual suspension
of manufacturing industry is not due in a greater degree to
a slackness of demand following on over-production than
to a lack of material created by the American blockade.
These deductions require, it is true, some qualification, but
at present the aspect of the cotton market is very remarka-
ble indeed, and the statistics of the trade show us distinctly
that no great pressure can have hitherto been felt. The
price of American cotton at this moment is about 50 per
cent. higher than it was at this time last year. Tha` is the
while amount of the difference established by events which
were expected to deprive us of our supplies altogether. The
rise is not much greater than the rise in the price of meat.
Beef and mutton are half as dear again as they were a year
or two ago, and yet the consumption appears to be main-
tained. If we look more closely loth° figures of the Liverpool
reports, we shall discover still further reason to be surprised.
Taking the year 1861 as a whole, and comparing it with the
year 1860, we find that we got nearly as much cotton from
America in one period as in the other. Theyear 1860 brought
us 3,151,563 bales ; the year just past—a year of civil war,
commercial convulsion, and maritime blockade—brought us
2,791,892 bales ; and, as we began last year with a some-
what larger stock on hand, the aggregate supplies of the
two periods really show but little difference. What seems
still more curious is, that it. December, 1861, the stocks of
cotton of all descriptions were actually greater than in De-
cember, 1860, so that upon a general survey it would ap •
pear as if the interruption of the American trade had pro-
duced no effect at all.

This conclusion, however, requires, as we have said,some
modification. The truth is, the cotton year does not begin
with January or end with December. The supplies re-
ceived from America in 1861 represented the drop of 1860,
and that crop had been pretty well transmitted to us before
the blockade of the Southern ports was established. 'The
crop of 1861 would only be on its passage to us at this time,
and would be gradually reaching us, if things had remained
as usual. These are the supplies which' we shall miss as
_ _

the present year rolls on, and the loss of which we must
endeavour to compensate by imports from other countries.
For instance, at this time last year 170,000 bales of Ame-
rican cotton were known to be at sea, on their way to our
shores, whereas at the present moment there is, not a single
bale expected. On the other hand, we know that 88,000
bales have been shipped frcm India for us, and will phortly
arrive, whereas at the beginning of 1861 only 65,00 were
coming ; this does not redress the balance. The actual steekof
American cotton at the pr esent time is not half what: it was 12
months ago, and it is not likely to be replenished, except
by the termination of the blockade. Here, therefore, the
pinch will be felt ; but, though it may increase somewhat
in severity, it is not probable that it will be so severe as
was anticipated.
But there is one feature of the cotton market which will
certainly appear surprising. We are now actually supply-
ing the Northern States of America with American-grown
cotton. The manufacturers of Lowell are in want of the
raw material for their mills, and they can procure it only at
Liverpool. The Americans of the Federal States have
themselves blockaded the ports of the South, and they find
that their attempts to establish a privileged emporium at
at Port Royal, and drawn the cotton crop to a market
under the Federal flag, have altogether failed. So,
from,sheer inability to obtain supplies elsewhere, they have
come to England, and we last week exported to the United.
States upwards of 3,000 bales of cotton which the United
States had previously exported to us, Besides this, we
sent them nearly 1,000 bales of East India cotton, and it
is on these stocks that they must henceforth. draw. It is
curious to speculate on the paradoxical results which such
events involve. We have endured the loss of American
cotton with less pressure hitherto than anybody could have
expected. We may say, indeed, that the ultimate conse-
quence of the interruption will be to place our cotton sup-
plies on a better and less precarious footing than before;
but what may be the consequences to the Americans them-
selves ? The Southern States would lose their monopoly
and the chief source of their wealth ; the Northern States,
until they make peace with the rebels, would be deprived
of all supplies from that quarter, and, if they were now to
resolve on going to war with us, would cut themselves off
from the only market where cotton could be obtained. In-
stead of Liverpool depending on America, it is America
which depends on Liverpool, and it is Americans, and not
Englishthen, who ought to dread a war which will deprive
their manufacturers of raw material, These very people
who have placed an interdict on the exports from cotton-
fields are now compelled to resort for the cotton to the
markets which their own proceedings were designed to
starve, and if they now quarrel vt ith England they will find
that we can actually inflict upon them the very scarcity
which they always believed they could inflict upon us.
The fact is, there are monopolies of consumption as well
as of production, and we enjoyed the former while the Ame-
ricans possessed the latter. England was the market for
cotton if America was the field, and it seems easier to
change the field than to change the market. No sooner
does the production of America cease than the cultivation
of cotton is eagerly taken up by other countries, but Liver-
pool is still the market for all. Whatever cotton is grown
finds its way to Liverpool, and it is to Liverpool that all
cotton buyers must come. It is we who hold the keys of
the market, and command the supply. The Americana
themselves can do nothing without us. We can paralyse
their manufactures and destroy their home trade. If they
now force a quarrel upon us, they will lose not only our
manufactured goods, but the power of manufacturing such
goods fer themselves. Our mills will go on working at least
as briskly as they do at present, probably more so, but the
American mills would come to a stop. We should get alI
the cotton procurable from the Southern States in addition
to what we now get from other quarters, but the Northers
Americans would get none at all.
It appears too as if these unexpected conditions of the
cotton -market were likely to be, if not permanent, at any
rate of some duration. There is little prospect of a renewal
of the American monopoly. The Southern planters decided
some time ago that if the cotton crop of last year could not
be sent to market they would not raise another in the ensu-
ing season, but would devote their attention to breadstffs
and other articles of food. The exigencies of the war, in-
deed, would render such a course absolutely inevitable, for
the Confederate States must feed themselves, The cessa-
tion of the blockade and the revival of the trade with Eng-
land would, indeed, modify these conditions; but there still
remains the question of slavery, and the Northerners ap-
pear to entertain the doctrine of abolition exactly as their
chances of success diminish. If the Southern Confederacy
were recognised by the European Powers, we might expect,
from all we have seen, that emancipation would be pr 9•
claimed at once. Altogether there seems very little likel(;-
hood of any speedy or effectual re-establishment of thnrs
can
otrapoi y
e
of the South, and the suspension of this
he
will be equivalent to its decay. Before the p
recover themselves the market will be in the hands of rivals
who will be difficult to dislodge, and, though there will be
ample room for competition, there will be little further
chance for monopoly.—Timcs•____

Mr. Samuel Harper, many years a member of the
Committee of Lloydrs, as well as of the Committee of Lloyd's
Registry Society, has accepted the post of superintendent
of the underwriting business of the Universal Marine In-
Burma, cowparly, and was elected a director yesterday.