The Sun.
London, England, 1865-04-18 00:00:00

Now, if these prices are to obtain, or if it is expected that
they will obtain, the following results will follow:
First, China • and Japan, which last year sent us
52,000,0001 b., will cease to send us any at all. Secondly,
Bengal, and to a certain extent Madras, which last year
sent us between them 350,000 bales. will ship to China (as
they used to do) instead of to England, and will at once
stop any unusual growth into which our high prices may
have tempted thorn. Thirdly, The Turkish supply, which
has only recently become at all important or reliable, will
again become precarious. Fourthly, Egypt and Brazil
will have a tendency to fall back to their old moderate sup-
ply—say 200,000 bales, as in 1860, instead of 460,000 as in
1864—just in proportion as prices tend back to their old
level. Fifthly, The western and north-western provinces
of India (which, like Egypt, have greatly increased the
average breadth of land under cotton, and have suffered
inconvenience from the diminished production of food which
was consequent upon the change) will gradually fall back
upon their old habits, and be more likely to send us three
quarters of a million of bales than a million and a quarter
—on which some persons calculated for 1865. .Certain it
is that Bd. for Surat will not secure us nearly the same
supply as 22d. would have done.

Thus it would appear as if the actual and expected drop
in the price of cotton consequent on the imminent—or be-
lieved to be imminent—supply from America after the re-
turn of peace, is likely to reduce our supplies from mis-
cellaneous quarters next year to something like half their
present amounts. But suppose this imminent and anti-
cipated supply from the States does not come—is not
there now and cannot speedily be grown—what will
be our position then ? Is there not a possibility of a
cotton famine as severe as that of 1862, and of prices as
disorganisingly and ruinously high ? Now, what are the
reasonable and unexaggerated probabilities of the Ameri-
can supply? and are not speculators and manufacturers
frightening themselves with a vain shadow ? Are they not,
at all events, premature by nearly a year and a half in their
anticipations, and are they not discounting their dangers
at a most needless and fatal cost ? In a word, is there any
real reason why cotton, even in the prospect of immediate
peace, should have fallen so low, and must we not, ere
long, have to look for a very serious reaction ?

Let us look at facts. According to the most trust-
worthy information we have been able to collect, no wise
man will base his calculations on a larger estimate of the
available stock of cotton now in the States than one mil-
lion of bales. Of late little has been grown, while much
has been destroyed, much has been spoiled, and a good
deal has been used. Even after peace is restored, and
making every allowance for American energy, and prompti-
tude, it will take a considerable time to re-collect the
scattered population, to re-organise labour, to repair
and re-create the means of transport. We will assume—
what, however, many persons would refuse to admit—that
nearly all the residual negro population in the cotton
States will again be set to that special cultivation, either
under compulsion or inducement of some kind. We will
admit all the suppositions most favourable to a largo and
prompt supply. Still, in any case, no fresh cotton worth
mentioning can reach this country in less than eight
months after the next seed-time subsequent to the restora-
tion of peace and order. The seed-time of this year is
past. Granting that the war is over in July, that planta-
tions are restored to their owners, that the healing and
re-organising processes are at once entered upon with the
marvellous enterprise and vigour which characterises our
transatlantic brethren—still it will be February, 1866, be-
fore the new crop can be sown, and October or. November
before it can reach England in any quantities. And when
it is ready to come, we may safely calculate upon three
things—all of which ought to moderate our expecta-
tions. First, that the crop of the first year, and perhaps
even of the second, will not be like the former ones, three
or three and a half millions of bales, but not more than
two millions at the outside—considering how many of the
plantations have been ruined, and how large a proportion
of the negro population has been dispersed or died. Se-
condly, that of this moderato crop the Americans them-
selves will want probably one-third at least. Anddidthhierfdolrya,
that the cotton will cost more to grow than
it
dened by an export duty of 3d. or 4d. in t e
the great convulsion, and before it reaches
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silol bur-
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steadtbheat
h cost
from of being baeing
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from 10d. to ls. If this be so, then there is no reason why
Surat atBd. and 9d. should not hold its ground; and the pre-
sent panic is at once excessive and premature. It will be a
great evil if new and distant countries are discouraged
from growing and forwarding cotton earlier or more deci-
dedly than is necessary. Sooner or later, no doubt, as we
have always said, the United States will beat all other cot-
ton-growing countries out of the market, with the excep-
tion of moderatesuppliss of special qualities from Bombay,
Egypt, and Brazil ; but it will be later and not sooner, and
we need not augment the catastrophe by anticipating it.

Jacques Descouais, who was lately condemned to
death at Tours for murder, robbery, and arson,
suffered the extreme penalty of the law in that city the day
before yesterday. After his trial he had manifested great
indifference and gave no signs of repentance, but two days
before his execution he ceded to the exhortations of the
prison chaplain, and a change occurred in his sombre and
violent temper. He even shed tears, and expressed regret
that he had not listened to the good counsels formerly
given him. He displayed great firmness on the scaffold,
and looked unmoved on the instrument of execution and
the crowd of spectators. At once he gave himself up to the
executioners, and the next moment all was over,