The Sun.
London, England, 1863-01-14 00:00:00

SPriaT OF THE PUBLIC JOURNALS.

rlarEs.—The speech of the Emperor on opening
the French Chambers was expected this year with
even more than -usual curiosity. It was known
that he could not help referring to the American
war, and, from the proposals made to England and
Russia a few -weeks since, there was reason to be-
lieve that lie would not lose the opportunity of
again counselling justice and moderation. This
expectation has been fulfilled. The Emperor in
leis speech on Monday adhered fully to the policy
of M. Drouyn De Lhuys's despatch, and more than
intimated that he should renew his attempt at
mediation. Speaking of the distress which the
war has brought on French industry, he says,—
" I have made the attempt to send beyond the
Atlantic advices inspired by a sincere sympathy,
but, the great maritime Powers not having
thought it advisable as yet to act in concert with
me, I have been obliged to postpone to a more
suitable opportunity the offer of mediation,
the object of which was to stop the effusion j
of blood, and to prevent the exhaustion of a " coun-
try the future of which cannot be looked upon with
indifference." That the Emperor would retain his
opinions on the subject of the war was to be ex-
pected, but it was not at all certain that he would
explain so decisively to his Legislature and the
world that his plan of mediation had not been aban-
doned. The speech of the Emperor is another step
in the direction indicated by the despatch of his
Foreign Minister. Again the Americans are told in
effect that the war which the ',North is waging
against the South will be without result, that the
country is being exhausted in a contest the evils of
which are felt more widely than those of any other
of the present age, and that Europe cannot remain
indifferent to the barbarity which shows itself every
day more and more. There can now be hardly a
doubt that the French Emperor will take every
occasion to urge on the Federals the necessity' of
bringing this war to a close. It is probable that the
United States' Minister, Mr. Dayton, has already
heard all that he can say against the enterprise in
which the Federal Government is engaged. The
deliberate judgment of Europe has been given by
the mouth of the Emperor, and though no formal
offer of mediation has yet reached Washington, yet
morally a most earnest ieterference has taken place.
The speech of Monday is but the solemn reiteration
of those opinions which the Emperor has never con-
cealed from either belligerent. It is a declaration
that the progress of the war during the last two
months has bat confined him in the wisdom of his
former policy, and that the time is approaching
when a European Sovereign may fitly interpose to
stop the slaughter. What hopes have the Federals
of doing better in any
.future encounter ? With the
passing away of winter they lose one of their best
chances, for the difference between good stout wool-
lens and flimsy cotton, between English blankets
and bits of carpet from Southern houses, will not be
so great two months hence as at present. The more
one reflects on the abrupt close of this last cam-
paign, the easier it is to understand why the
event has caused so much consternation at the
North. It is felt that, as far as regards the main
armies, the war has been already decided. The
Federals can do nothing more than they have done
already; any increase of the army will only add to
its clumsiness and immobility, and further confuse
commanders who, as General Burnside freely con-
fessed, do not know how to manage such large
bodies of troops. The state of affairs in the West is
scarcely more encouraging for the Federals. There
is skirmishing in plenty, and now one party wins a
victory, now the other; but it is quite apparent that
the Federals hold only the ground they stand upon,
and that no progress has been made in the conquest
of the South. Such being the condition of the war,
the French Emperor may justly ask whether Europe
is to sit still and make no effort to save a civilized
and Christian society from the miseries that are
coming on it. The exhaustion of the country and
the brutalising of the people are the only results
which may be clearly foreseen if the war lasts, and
the Emperor will do a good work if by any wise
and temperate advances he can persuade the Fede-
rals to desist from their hopeless enterprise.
HERALD..—It has been announced with a very
great flourish of trumpets that at the close of the
current financial year Mr. Gladstone will find him-
self in the possession of a handsome surplus. It is
computed that, thanks to this surplus, to the in-
crease in the revenue which it indicates, and to the
saving of some two millions on the estimates, the
Chancellor of the Exchequer will have four or five
millions- to the good, and be in a position to make
a sensible reduction of taxation. Already half a
dozen interests are astir. That there is a boon to
be granted they have the assurance of the whole
Ministerial press, and even the Saturday Review,
which has always pretended to criticise Mr. Glad-
stone from a very superior economical elevation,
and to rate him as a brilliant talker but no
financier, gives its opinion that, thanks to the
surplus this year, there will be with the economies
four millions to dispose of in the next. It is very
disagreeable to dispel these pleasant anticipations,
but for the sake of those disposed to indulge in them
we must do it. Mr. Gladstone, according to all pre-
sent means of judgment, so far from having a hand-
some surplus on the current year, will have a serious
deficit; and even should he be able to present esti-
mates reduced by a couple of millions will not have
more than a million at the most to devote to the
remission of taxation, These coleur-de-rose antici-
pations of the Ministerialists rest upon a stupid
blunder. Our liberal contemporaries have made a
ludicrous mistake, and upon it have built up their
assurances of a surplus. The revenue returns issued
on the 31st of December show an excess on the
quarter, Compared with that in the corresponding
year, of rather more than thirteen hundred thou-
sand pounds; the year closing at the same date
shows an excess over the corresponding one of nearly
two millions four hundred thousand pounds. Upon
these figures is founded that assurance of a surplus
which must have annoyed Mr. Gladstone intensely
hissel,
and filled him with the utmost contempti f
zealous but ignorant admirers. The comparison be-
tween years and quarters does not afford in itself
the slightest indication of the correctness of a Mini-
ster's calculations. It does not even supply any test,
except when the year taken is the financial 3 ear, of
the buoyancy, as it is termed, of the revenue; and
not even then unless all the circumstances calcu-
lated to affect the results are carefully eliminated.
The quarter, for instance, which ended on the 31st
of last month, shows a large comparative excess, be-
cause the collections of revenue in the corresponding
quarter were exceptionally small. An apparent
increase upon the amount of receipts for the current
year, even if appearing on the 31st March, would be
no proof of an actual increase of revenue, inasmuch
as very large sums—about a million in all—are this
year for the flest time carried to the credit of Mis-
cellaneous revenue,
and disbursed under the head of
army expenditure; the
entry
caccount having previously
been settled by balance
The only way to test the fur a small sum.
ac
a Chancellor
of the Exchequer's calculations and foto estimate the
to
chances of a surplus or a deficit, is
compare
state_
his
estimates of revenue as given in his
financial
meat with the actual receipts. And if 'we d
with Mr. Gladstone, we shall find that the
revenue
returns, returns, so far from proving his soundness
andpro.
raising a surplus, convict him of inaccuracy and
threaten a considerable deficit. Upon some branches
of revenue he has received more than he ea:et:dated,
but the balance is very heavily against him. Thus
he obtains from Customs just £650,000 more than
he expected, but from the Excise a million and a
Stamps and assessed taxes give him
quarter less.
£550,000 more than he calculated, but Property
Tax £900,000 and Miscellaneous revenue a quarter
of a million less, the net result being that the re-
ceipts for the three quarters of the year are a mil-
lion and a quarter less than three-fourths of the
estimates of revenue. The awkward enthusiasm of
his partisans has done Mr. Gladstone ill service.
By promising a surplus they have made his task of
apologising for a deficit all the more difficult. It
will be remembered when he rises to perform that
task that he was warned again and again by the
Conservatives that his estimates, in the face of the
already extending distress, were extravagant, and
that his surplus was altogether insufficient to pro-
of these warn-
vide for any such mistakes. In spite