The Sun.
London, England, 1863-01-17 00:00:00

THE COTTON SUPPLY.

Mr. Laing, in a letter to the Times, says:—As
the question of cotton supply from India is one of
great practical importance, it is desirable that the
opinions of those who may be supposed to speak
with some authority on the subject should be cor-
rectly understood. lam induced, therefore, to ask
you to insert a few lines on the subject, as the fol-
lowing passage in your article of to-day on Sir C.
Wood's speech at Halifax, might, if unexplained,
lead to some misconception :

" What, then, has Sir C. Wood to tell us with regard to
our prospeot of a supply of Indian cotton? In this respect,
as in most others, the Secretary for Indi a gives an opinion
contrary to that expressed by Mr. Laing. Mr. Laing had
told us that we must not solace ourselves with the hope
that under any circumstances we can obtain a sufficient sup-
ply of cotton from India. The climate, he says, is to arid,
the temperature too extreme, to encourage hopes of making
India ever take the place of America. According to Sir C.
Wood's view, this opinion will very speedily be put to the
test. Sir C. Wood thinks that the question of the growth
of cotton in India is simply a question of price—an opinion
which, he says, he took up 10 years ago, and which his
subsequent experience has very greatly tended to confirm."
I do not know that my opinion really differs from
that of Sir C. Wood. I quite agree with him that
the question is one of price, and that if, for in.
stance, America were sunk under the ocean, and
the price of Indian cotton in consequence perma-
nently raised to Is. per lb., India would ultimately
supply us with 4,000,000 bales.
But the practical question is not what India
might do under hypothetical circumstances in five
or six years, but what India is really likely to do in
the next year or two.
It was with reference to this question that, ad-
dressing a meeting of gentlemen connected with
the cotton trade at Manchester in September last, I
pointed out that it was an error to suppose that
any mere temporary or removable causes, such as
want of roads or bad legislation, were alone respon-
sible for the fact that American had for a series of
years so completely superseded Indian cotton in the
English market. The radical fact was that the ave-
rage production of clean cotton per acre in America
had been 3001 b., while in India it had scarcely ex-
ceeded 701 b. of an inferior quality.
This arose mainly from two causes—climate and
soil.

The climate of India is more extreme, an excess
of rain during the wet monsoon being in most parts
of India compensated by excessive heat and drought
during the remaining six months of the year.
The soil is perhaps not intrinsically inferior, but
the circumstances of its cultivation are different.
Cotton in America is grown on virgin soil by the
application of capital and organised labour on a
large scale, while in India it is grown almost exclu-
sively as a rotation crop, on old cultivated land, by
small farmers and peasant proprietors.
These causes of inferiority may, and probably will,
be partially met in India by the progress of im-
provement.

There are districts like Dharwar, where, owing
to depressions in the mountain ranges, rains are re-
ceived from both monsoons. In such the cultiva-
tion of American cotton succeeds perfectly. In
other districts irrigation may be applied if the price
justifies it. And, finally, as roads and railways are
completed, and European capital and intelligence
brought into play in the interior, the mass of the
ryots will manure their lands more freely, grow
green crops, and otherwise improve their cultiva-
tion.

In this way both the quality and the quantity per
acre of Indian cotton will doubtless increase.
But it would be a mistake to suppose that under
any circumstances the average produce per acre
will approach that of America.

Mr. Russell, in his excellent description of the
Southern States, tells us how the cultivation has
been there conducted. Irish labour was employed
to save the more valuable negro, and take the rough
edge off the work in clearing the jungle and drain-
ing the feverish swamp. Then gangs of negroes,
working_in brigades like those of a regular army,
were brought into play, with all the resources of
capital and machinery, to cultivate vast tracts of
the richest virgin soil.
Nothing of the sort can take place in India.
European planters will always prefer the cultiva-
tion of tea and coffee, which are much more profit-
able than cotton, and are grown at altitudes above
the sea much more favourable for European consti-
tutions. Even if it were otherwise, the command
of organized labour of the description used in Ame-
rica does not exist.

The great bulk of the Indian supply of cotton
will therefore always, as at present, be grown by
the ryots as a rotation crop. The acreable produce
will therefore always be tar less than in America.
But although this is so, a vast quantity will still
be produced by the cultivation of an acre here and
an acre there, on the small holdings of the pea-
sant proprietors of a population of 180,000,000,
who are mainly agricultural. This is purely a
question of price. Let cotton sell on the spot to
the ryot at a price which makes it his best paying
rotation crop, and there is scarcely any limit to
the quantity which may ultimately be grown.
Now to apply these data to the practical state of
things with which we have to deal.

In September last I warned the people of Man-
chester that, to the best of my judgment, they
would not get, at the outside, above 1,500,000 bales
of cotton from India for the next 12 months.

There seems no reason to alter that opinion. To
produce an extra supply of 1,000,000 bales at the
existing rate of production—and any increase on it
is prospective—would require at least 4,000,000 acres
extra to be sown with cotton, and, as the cotton
crop can only be grown after a rotation of three or
four years, this implies that the cultivators of
12,000,000 acres of existing arable ground, who
have not hitherto grown cotton as a rotation crop,
shall begin to do so.
For " cotton" write " turnips" or " flax," and a
moment's consideration will show that, although
" price" may be the sole regulator of ultimate
supply, " time" is an essential element in any cal-
culation of immediate prospects,

Lancashire may be kept on half rations, and
saved from absolute starvation during the next two
years by Indian cotton, but effectual and speedy
relief can only come from America.

I am convinced also that it is for the interest of
India that the war in America should soon termi-
nate, so that it may be seen to what normal price
cotton will permanently settle down.
If America can again produce 4,000,000 bales of
cotton at sd. to 6d. per lb., and so drive the price
of Indian cotton down to 4d., other crops will pay
better in India ; cotton will cease to be grown
largely for exportation, and a large amount of
capital, which can ill be spared, will have been lost,
after being diverted from other pursuits by the
temporary stimulus given by high prices.
But if, as 1 think more probable, America when
the war ceases cannot resume her former produc-
tion, India will undoubtedly supply the deficiency.
It is hazardous to venture on an estimate in such
matters, but I see no reason to alter that which I
gave four months ago at Manchester—viz., 1. That
for the next 12 months India might furnish from
1,250,000 to 1,500,000 bales, but not more,
2. That permanently, after time to extend the
cultivation and get over the fluctuations on the ter-
mination of the war, India might supply some-
where about 2,000,000 bales, with a permanent
average price of 6d. per lb. for Indian cotton in
Liverpool ; and 1,000,000 bales, more or less, for
each ld. per lb., more or less, in the price of the
article.

I believe that if the war in America could be ter-
minated to-morrow by the joint recognition of the
South by the Great Powers or otherwise, the result
at which we should probably arrive in two or three
years, after severe fluctuations, would be something
like the • following ;—Cotton consumption of the
world, 5,000,000 bales. Supply— America , 2,500,000
to 3,000,000 bales, at 6d. to 7d. per lb. ; India,
1,500,000 to 2,000,000 bales, at sd. to 6d. per lb.;
the rest of the world, 500,000 to 1,000,000 bales.

The drama of "Peep o' Day" has been produee
in Australia with success.

Mr. Charles Dillon made his bow to an Austra-
lian audience in November, in the character of Belphegor,
and met with a hearty welcome-

LIFEBOAT SERVICES.—CAISTOR, NORFOLK, Fri-
day Morning.—About 12 o'clock last night (writes
the Rev. G. W. Steward, of Caistor), the clew of the life-
boat on this station, belonging to the National Lifeboat
Institution, observed a vessel on the Barber Sands bearing
light. It was blowing strongly at the time from the East.
The lifeboat was at once launched, and soon reached the
vessel, which proved to be the schooner Kezid, of Sunder-
land. The crew of five hands had just previously left in
their own boat, and were afterwards picked up by the life-
boat about a quarter of a mile from the wreck. The
light had not been burning more than two minutes, the
beachmen state, before it was put out. But having seen
the light the lifeboat's crew went off ; and having to tack
a little to the southward in order to fetch the vessel, they
thus fell in with the crew, who were making for Yarmouth
Harbour in their own boat. The ship struck a second
time on a sand towards the southward, which the boat
would most probably have come upon, and could not pos-
sibly have lived through the sea. The ship was driven off
the sand again, and went ashore about half way between
Caistor and Yarmouth about four o'clock p.m.
THE ALLEGED POISONING AT BALLYMENA,—
The .Northern Whig sap, it is stated that Dr. Cour-
tenay, whose name was prominently mentioned at tho late
inquest, has been arrested awaiting the result of the
journed coroner's inquest, which will be held
Hodge's completes his analysis ^` t ts of the sto-
roach tilt, 1111fm.4-- soon as Dr.
L ne contents
—.Amato deceased woman.