The Sun.
London, England, 1863-02-14 00:00:00

THE FINANCES OF FRANCE.

In The Sun of yesterday we published an account
of the finances of Great Britain, and to-day we lay
before our readers the following statement of the
finances of France, from the pen of M. Casimir
Perier. The fact that the editor of the _Revue des
Deux blondes was afraid to.publish it, as will ap-
pear from the context, tells too plainly the doubtful
state of French finance :

M. Casimir Perier has just published a pamphlet
on the financial situation of France in 1863. It was
originally written for the _Revue des Deux Mondes

as a sequel to previous articles in that periodical
by the same hand on the finances of 1861 and 1862 ;
but, notwithstanding the moderation of its language,

the editor of the .Revue did not venture to insert

it, being, perhaps, apprehensive of profiting by even
the parsimonious allowance of liberty given to the
periodical press. The pamphlet is a review of the
report addressed by the Xinister of Finance to the
Emperor in December last, and embodied in the

expose of the situation of the Empire. M.
Casimir Perier contends that this report has fully

corroborated the fears of those who believed that, in
the absence of more substantial reforms, a notable
change in the Imperial policy could alone produce
any real and salutary influences upon the finances.
Giving credit to M. Fould for the best intentions,
they doubted that even his influence would effect a
change of such importance. The event he says has
shown they were right, but they must have been
surprised that the Minister exposed himself to an
apparent contradiction in his efforts to palliate a
check the true causes of which, had he discovered

and pointed them out, as in 1861, would have en-
abled him, to a certain degree, to decline the re-

sponsibility of them.

Contrary to his anticipations, unexpected inci-
dents and war have deranged his calculations. Great
txpense has been incurred beyond both the old and
the new limits of the budget without its being con-

sidered necessary to convoke the Legislative Body.
The transfer of credits (virentens) has failed to cover
the unforeseen expenses of the Mexican expedition,
and the Minister estimates that, in addition to the
59 millions voted by the Chamber, 24 millions will

have to be placed to the account of 1862. The sums
thus spent must be provided out of extraordinary
credits, though the Senatus-consulte of the 21st of
December prescribed that for every credit of the
kind the previous sanction of the Legislative Body
is indispensable.
"As to external events, what," he asks, "has
occurred between October and December, 1862, to
change so seriously the encouraging anticipations
in the Report of the 6th of October ? At this
latter period a detailed exposition of the situation
showed, for the definitive settlement of the
Budget of 1862, a probable excess of 16 mil-
lions from ordinary resources. Neither at home
nor abroad has anything happened that had
not been foreseen by all. It is not since Octo-
ber only that the Government has discovered
how different is the disposition of the Mexicans from
what it had hoped. It is not since then that it
knew Mexico to be without roads and bridges ; that
the movements of the army would be slow and diffi-
cult ; that the despatch of large reinforcements could
alone secure the success of the expedition; that it
would be necessary to fill up the ranks of the army,
thinned by sickness ; and that food and the means
of transport not found in the country must be sought
elsewhere." He shows that the first application of
the system of transfer from one Minister's Budget
to another, begun a year ago, has justified the pre-
diction of its failure ; and he quotes some passages
from his own remarks penned at the time in support
of his assertion.

After indicating the rules which should be ob-
served by every financier in the administration of
the public income, M. Casimir Perier comes to
figures :

" In October last the Minister of Finance esti-
mated the total deficiency in the Budget of 1862 at
54,000,000 f. Then, bringing forward 70,000,000 f.
to be derived from various sources of a very ques-
tionable nature, as will be seen further on, he
added, This fortun `‘e result is partly due to acci-
dental resources, but it is derived particularly from
the overplus in the indirect revenue, the conse-
quence of the tranquillity and the prosperity we
enjoy. The year 1862 will, therefore, add nothing,
we may hope, to the anterior unfunded debt.'
Thus, on the 6th of October the Minister of Finance
counted on an overplus of 16,000,000 f. on the defi-
nitive settlement of the public accounts for the year
1862. On the 27th of December he announced a
deficiency of 35,000,000 f., whence there appears to
be a difference of 51,000,000 f. in the calculations
made within two months of each other. This
uncertainty is to be regretted, the more so as the
figures produced in December may by the results
be found inaccurate, as much so or more, as the
figures produced in October are found to be so at
present. However difficult of explanation such a
difference in estimates made at so short an interval,
I would wish to accept the last figures set forth by
the Minister of Finance as the real and definitive
amount of the deficiency in 1862, for in order to
establish, without any mistake, the amount of a de-
ficit we must not set down uncertain or contingent
receipts against inevitable obligatory expenses, or
those which are renewed in an invariable manner.
It is because such a course has been too often pur-
sued for some years past that, notwithstanding the
expansion of the public revenue—notwithstanding
increased taxation—notwithstanding the consoli-
dation of the national debt—the floating debt has
constantly increased. The truth, may be disguised
for a longer or shorter time by expedients more or
less adroit, but the hour for striking a balance
comes sooner or later. Illusions are dispelled
and inaccuracies are expiated by taxes and by loans.
When the Minister of Finance, so justly severe
for past errors, estimated the deficit for 1862 at only
35,000,000 f., he, without being aware of it, suffered
the consequences of the common law which changes
the appearance of things according as the point of
view in which we view them is changed. It will
not be difficult to prove this assertion. The origi-
nal Budget for 1862 amounted to 1,969,000,060 f.
The credits added, amounting to . 200,000,000 f.,

swelled it to 2,169,000,000 f. But the Budget was
voted with an overplus of about 4,000,000 f,, so that,
supposing the deficit reduced to the 35,000,000 f. in-
dicated by the the Minister, the Budget of 1862
should be set down at 2,200,000,000 f., thus
exceeding the first estimate by 231,000,000 f. The
great danger is there; it is in the difference, always
so great, between the expenses anticipated and the
expenses actually incurred. 1 shovved, a year ago,
that this difference, which had amounted during the
17 years comprised between 1830 and 1848 to only
75,000,0001. annually on an average, increased to
327,000,000 f. for each of the nine years from 1852
to 1861 inclusive; and that at the same time the
annual average amount of the Budget approved had
increased from 1,287,000,000 f. in the first period to
1,974,000,000 f. in the second. The annualdavveer:
age increase, therefore, is 687,000,000 f., tln
supposing that the Budget for 1862 can
ge
at 200,000,000 f., it will exceed
hthbe
eve of the
Budgets of the Imperial epoch
Thus in spite of the public p
and of the ever
y 226,000,000 f.
on which the
report congratulates
theth funded debt, which wase
country,
increasing taxation,
288,000,000 f. in 1848, including the dotation and
the rentes of the sinking fund (caisse d'amortissment)
at present exceeds 500,000,000 f. To reduce the
deficit left by the Budget of 1862 it has become
necessary to accumulate all the eventual and
ordinary resources to which recourse could be
had. For instance, 25,000,000 of the old claim on
Spain, 10,000,000 of the Chinese indemnity,
44,000,000 of the rest of loans and consolidation of
the arn,y dotation, &e. Are these resources on the
return, and on the perpetuity of which it is pos-
sible to count
Of the Budget of 1864 M. Cassimir Perier says
but little, for want of sufficient materials. The
financial report of the 27th of December, he ob-
serves, announced that the Budget of 1864 would
be kept " as much as possible within the limit of
the credits voted for 1863;" whereas it is already
known that the ordinary Budget of expenditurei
amounts to 1,778 millions, showing an excess of 4)
millions on that of 1863 :
" The Budget of expenditure from special sources
is 222 millions, making a total of 2,000 millions,

and with the extraordinary Budget 2,104 millions
instead of 2,091 millions which formed the total
of the united Budgets such as they were pre-
sented for 1863, instead of 1,965 millions for 1862.
It is hardly necessary to say that the amortisation.
is completely suspended; not a word is said about
In deeming the oft-repeated promise of resuming it
so soon as circumstances should permit. . . At
the beginning of a new ere, of which the name re-
called to our mind great glory, followed by terrible
reverses, it was easy to foresee that France would
shortly hear the din of arms. The war in the
Crimea, and shortly afterwards that of Italy, added
victories to our annals dearly paid for with our
blood and with our gold, but of which the splendour
caused the price to be forgotten. When, however,
to these two wars succeeded the expedition to China
and Cochin China the longing for repose began to
be felt, and many people thought that the activity
of the country might derive a salutai y aliment from
the discussion and management of its interests, in
place of occupying itself always with distant objects.
People were beginning to say that peace would re-
store to agriculture the hands which it wanted,
and would permit the Government t 3 diminish the
taxes instead of increasing them ; that we had much
to do and much to accomplish at home before
assuming the mission of disseminating abroad the
advantages of civilisation and liberty. For these
reasons it was with some regret that the country
saw the expedition to Mexico, of which it did not
sufficently comprehend the causes or the objest.
More than a year has elapsed, and it does not even
nor has anything been done to
row comprehend it,
remove its uncertainty. The expose of the situation
of the Empire is on this 'Ant remarkably laconic.
It is not enough to refer to what was said on the
subject by the organs of the Government in the
Corps Legislatif last session. Many serious events
have occurred since then, and the Government
must have learned much. Even the language
held in Mexico, and the addresses to the Mexicans,
have not more clearly explained what will be the
political conclusions after the definitive triumph
of our arms. The instructicns given to General
Forey, and published in the official documents, will
suggest doubts as to the extent and duration of the
task which will be entailed on us by victory, and
the complications which such vast plans may give
rise to."