Northern Times.
Liverpool, Merseyside, England, 1859-06-07 00:00:00

THE NORTHERN TIMES, TUESDAY, JUNE 7, 1859

AMERICA AND THE ITALIAN WAR,

THE war in Italy has created considerable excite-
ment, it would seem, in the United States,—far away
though that republic is from the seat of hostilities,
and unconnected though it be, in any way, with the
political interests involved in the contest. " From
all parts of our country," says a New York paper,
" which are brought within a day's hail of the
metropolis by the telegraph, we have accounts
showing that the European war is the sole topic
with all classes of our people—the leading topic of
the day. Thus far we look in vain for any very
marked exhibition of sympathy with either of the
contending parties. There is exceeding interest and
feverish curiosity at the operations in the Cabinets,
the fluctuation of the funds, the marshaling of the
mighty armies." But that is all—all, we mean, in
the way of sympathy—or, rather "curiosity." Yet
there is another feeling of a much more significant
kind that prevails, we learn, intensely,—a feeling
of anxiety to turn the war to a good commercial
account ; and already have they speculated very
keenly on its influences in their markets, more
particularly those for cotton and wheat. The
former staple product of the Southern States fell
considerably in price, under the impression that the
war would check the progress of its manufacture in
this country ; while there would be such an increased
demand for wheat, they supposed, occasioned by the
necessities of the war, and its interference with the
European harvests, as must inevitably enhance its
value in no slight degree. And there was soon, it
appears, a temporary fulfilment of this anticipation.
The accounts from England of a partial advance in
-markets, two or three weeks ago, we find it
stimulated the provision and flour
further rise, and one which will more
ip for the loss on cotton, if the decline on
hould be permanent, which is by no
' nnalifying remark Was

" have

prices in New York. Under all these circumstances

there is little chance of any very large exports of
breadstuffs and provisions from the United States for
some months." Yes,—certainly for some months ;
and even then it will entirely depend upon the
results of the corn harvests throughout Europe. At
present the prospects generally are very good ; and
the probability is that Europe may have more than
an average produce, which would no doubt in a
great measure suffice for her own necessities, although
war may be raging in certain districts of her con-
tinent, —but not, be it remembered, districts of any
note for their corn fields.

The idea that largely augmented demands for
wheat would be occasioned by the present war,
arise no doubt from the recollection of the war
demand of half a century ago. But, as the
American writer we have just quoted very forcibly
points out, " that demand was mostly for England,
not because of war, but because of bad harvests."
Besides, "the other countries of Europe have greatly
improved in numbers of people, agriculture, and
means of communication." And therefore "it is
probable that a war out of the limits of France will
benefit her agriculture more than that of the United
States." During the great war of the first thirteen
years of the present century, it was chiefly in
England that there was any actual scarcity of wheat,
and consequent dearness of bread. In France, it
appears from the tables of current prices, that the
price of wheat, during that period, never rose above
635. a-quarter, and that only in one year-1803 ;
while in England it was once as high as 1225.
a-quarter, and in five out of the thirteen years it was
upwards of 1665. The prices in England were by
far the highest of any country in Europe ; and
England was the only importer, except Spain, while
she was the only nation exempt from war operations.
But the times are changed; and so are the circum-
stances of the times. And now, it may be taken for
granted, that upon the coming harvests of Europe
will depend almost entirely the amount of benefit, or
the extent of injury, which the United States

commerce is to experience by the war that may

involve all Europe in its vortex,

Then, as respects the other staple product.
" The price of Cotton has fallen under the

war news,

says the same

authority

already

given, " but it does not appear to be a well-
founded reason, judging from the past
the wars of the early part of the century the import
of neither cotton nor wool into Great Britain was in
any degree checked; on the other hand, the import
of cotton which had been nine millions lbs. in 1800,
rose year by year to ninety-three• milllions lbs. in
1810, and the import of wool in the same period
rose from five to eleven millions lbs. Notwithstand-
ing the continental system, those goods forced their
way to the Continent, and redressed the exchanges
against the large subsidies sent to the different allies
of England. If we are guided by these facts of
history, in addition to the more recent experience of

Since

the Crimean war, we shall come to the conclusion
that the benefits to be deriVed by war have been
exaggerated." And so are we ourselves inclined to
think,—and more especially if England -can happily
maintain her neutrality.

In another way the United States will probably
be very materially affected by the war. Her gold
will run the risk of being all drained away from

her. Already, it appears, this is found to be the
case. " The export of gold," it is stated, " for the
first two weeks in May has been 54,500,000, and
for the month the amount will not be much under
$10,000,000." This, in turn, will force exportations
of European fabrics, to realize, if possible, the
precious metal. In this way, more, perhaps, than
any other, will the trade Of the United States be
affected by the war. Gold they must have in
Continental Europe for the purposes of the cam-
paign—the military chests of the belligerents must
be kept replenished ; and every prudent Continental
banker will take care to provide, if possible, a reserve
of specie. Money will therefore be scarce—but
goods will be abundant, in the United States ; and

this, without greater caution than has usually been
practised, will be very likely to create another
financial inflation.