The Press.
London, England, 1853-10-22 00:00:00

LONDON, SATURDAY, OCTOBER 2.1, 1853.

WARS, as Mr. Conni astutely observes, arise
out of wars. fly wars the great States of
Europe, swallowing the smaller, grew to those
propor4ons which were the object of mutual
vigilance ; and, this vigilance to prevent the
predominance of any one helping to promote
the predominance of some other, wars have
bred wars in direct descent, but in irregular
succession.

No sooner had Europe been fairly secured from
an Austrian dom illation by the peace of Westpha-
lia, than the confinement thereby of Austria to
closer limits left room for an alarming expan-
sion of Fiance, which was limited in turn by
the pow of Utrecht. To England, which
imposed this latter restraint, was assigned a
pre-eminence which for eighty years excited a
general jealousy. Losses which she had sus-
tained made the peace of Paris in 1753 the
platform of other rivalries ; till the empire of
NAPOLEON electrified Europe. The disso-
lution of this empire in lsls was materially
aided by a deadly thrust from the lance of the
Cossack, and thenceforward the Cossack be-

came himself suspected ;—and with reason.
His vaguest hopes of universal empire, en-
couraged by the fall ofPoland,were corrolswated
by the retreat front Moscow. From the bleeding
valour of Eylau and Friedland to the last pro-
phetic sigh of St. Helena, he has had a grow
ing sanction fin• his grand audacity ; and the
boldest breed of English statesmen have been
wtu'ntnted in their resolution to commit their
country to fresh wars if it should become ne-
cess►uy to cheek Lis advance.
For be it remembered this advance in further-
ance of a traditional scheme is a filet which
can be measured out by dates. Established on
the borders of the Black Sea in 1774 by the
treaty of Kainardji ; securing the Crimea iu
1774 by the treaty of Constantinople ; acquiring
by the treaty of Bucharest in Isl 2 the banks
of the Pruth and the province of Bessarabia;
and appropriating the delta of the Danube in
I►+3tl by the treaty of Adrianople, the Cossnek
has crept on till he now threatens the sove-
reign positions of the Sound and the Darda-
nelles. We have shown that to him these are
the gates of empire, but they are also the
gates of Europe, and indispensable to her se-
curity. Feebly garrisoned, they are thus be
leaguered by an enemy who combats alike by
force and eot•tltption ; who combines barbs
runs vigour and Oriental fanaticism with
science and discipline—the Asiatic fury with
the Greek tire—who marshals numbers we
c►►t►ttut estimate in approaches of which he
retains the secret, and who can await the oppor-
tunity, fur which he watches, to strike home.
It is a truism to say that we cannot afford to
doze or dawdle in the presence of this enemy.

The resources of the Russian empire, with its
growing population, are at the instant service
of a definite policy in the hands of a ruler of
eminent talents and of resolute will. llis
dominion, stretckin
g
from
Past to west., lowers
over Europe like a thundercloud ; and should
he, instigated by our presamptionis folly, sur-
prise our gates in the hands of their de
fenders, his dominion could no longer be
thrust back within limits, for it would be
everywhere present, yet in no part accessible.
Against this catastrophe—apiinst the permitted
presentment even of an Wone which might
render it possible—all English statesmen of
note, *are one, have striven ; but this one has
pursued an opposite course ; by tortuous
methods has promoted a congenial scheme.
and, rigid in his manner as he is supple in
his intentions, has deliberately removed im-
pediments from the path of the Czar.
To Lord ANERDICEN attaches the life-long
stigma of a traitorous alacrity to second the
designs of Russia, hut to the Coalition Minis-
try the disgrace that in this last instance he
has plotted, as it may yet appear, with fatal
maladroitness. _ _

.... ...... ________ __..
Almost every one has shared in the common
presentiment that l'4001) .I._ or later the day would
come when Europe'a -Russia must close in
ui
conflict. It might not le till the next genera-
tion, or the next century ; but every one save
the gentle ph ilosophesanf Manchester has been
persuaded that It was at some time or other
inevitable. The date was in a measure at our
own discretion, and by guarding our opportu-
nities of defence we could have intercepted and
retarded the occasion of attack. One mode of
accelerating this gigantic contest was by
evincing a craven anxiety for peace; a second
was by creating impressions of a rupture be-
tween ourselves and our natural allies; a third
was lby so conducting an embryo dispute that
the enemy was neither deterred from advancing,
nor when he had partially advanced could recede
with honour. The Coalition, according to the
formula, had its choice of these courses, but,
with a comprehensive fatuity, it has adopted
all three.

The first folly is confessed. " It is, indeed,
" to be feared," says the reputed organ of one
of the Ministers, " that an appettnince of over
" anxiety for perme on the part of the Western
" Powers has been the means of working mils-
" chief by leading the Emperor to suppose
" that he might tako advantage of this pacific
" disposition." Simultaneously we hear the
eeho of this admission at Moscow, where the Me-
tropolitan eongratulates the Czar on " the timid
" fears that have," in consequence of his atti-
tude, " spread through the states ishabited by
" other peoples." The second folly is that to
which we have at other times alluded—the
folly of Sir Cli.tat.Es Wool) after, and of Sir
.lAMI;s before, he had dined, in which
folly Mr. lii.AnwrosE has just participated by
cheapening our Turkish allies in exchange for
the cheers of Manchester. The third and
en)wning fidly—of permitted ucoupation of the
provinces. and of negotiations gra:nett to elicit
a eotnpromising statement of her claims by
Russia—is contammtated, it, as we hear, Russia
will nut recede because ;theism: fern Aral' into a
position from which site can nn lonyer recede with-
wit humiliation.
Assuming that this intelligence will rule the
issue, the war then which is stout. gates, with its
overwhelming responsibilities—its certain pe-
rils and inscrutable future—is a war into which
we have helplebtily blundered. We could not

have said "we will never wage it," but we
could have avoided it at a date when altruist
all the states of Europe had just bowed to the
blast of anarchy. United Europe might have
sustained it fearlessly. But at this moment.
if we have a single ally at our side, it is in
spite of efforts from the Premier downwards
by suspicion or sarcasm to provoke his hos•
tility. If war must come, it is not only the
lot. of Englishmen that, we owe that war—sub-
,jeet to the predilections of Lord Aistatocts—
to the cross purposes and contnteled action
of a Coalition Cabinet, but that we must meet.
it with the interests on our side dissevered.
with empires at variance, and nations dis-
traeted by class antipathies and bloody souve-
nirs. The apprehensions which paralyse the
nerves'of Ministers, and dictate their aril°.
gies, are their heaviest eondenmation. ( our-
age and clear purpose multi have saved all.
But the tremors to which our rulers hay',
yielded will be not so nundi Justified as pun-
ished, if the gleam of hostile watehtires should
prime a revolutionary beacon, stud the file
without should be answered by internal eon.
tiamtion.

WINTER I'ItOSPECTS.
Timms has been much speculation of late an
to the causes of the recent, sudden vise ist the
vete of interest, and the probablellffelktm of the
seareity of money throughout the comlug
1t 'inter. 'Pile deficient harvest, and the im-
pending was', are very generally supposed to
have created the present fooling of uneasiness
in commerehtl eirclem, aggravated us that no
doubt hats been by the strikes in the Mann-
faeturing districts, and the unseasonable
autumn weather. In short, the muses of the
sudden alteration in the state of the Money
Market are so apparent that it is dafieult to
suppose that two opinion: e0111(1 exist upon
the subject. A weekly contemporary, how-
ever, which is specially devoted to the
consideration of such topics has boldly tour
tratlicted the V44)111111* theory, and started 0110
whielt ham at least the attraction of perfect
novelty to recommend it. The Er, ##### west
assurem Its that the bite steady and rapid 1114(5
in the rate of interest, with all its grave conse-
quences. is a sigh, not of approaching ilitli•
eulty and distress, but of extended pros-
perity. Free trade, according to this
authority, has erected Ko great all eXiallisism
14 our eolnlsieree that means lire wanting for
its inereased necessities ; hence, and hence
only, the ailginented demand for money, 111141
Its present comparative sestreity.
o this startling proposition we would re-
mark in the first that, if true, we
ti diseOVerell it long ago. For the last
four years the country 11115 elkjoyed the bless
lugs of that conimeivial system it 110.1), Heel Ord'
ling to the creed of the Eisonmsess, is the parent
of perpetual prosperily. For the lust two
years at least the condition of the etatittly has
been prosperous. We do not 'low inquire
into the rause : if is sufficient for our purpose
to admit the filet. lint it is (Anions that, it a
high rate of interest is a proof of extensive
prosperity, the Hank directors ought to have
applied the screw' long before the commence-
ment of the present year. I.ast autumn
money could be had to any amount at two per
cent. lit the blitUalti3 to railway And

578

mining speculation which prevailed during
the latter half of 1852. If our contemporary
is right, that abundance of money, and that
spirit of enterprise, were symptoms of dis-
tress. Escape from this conclusion is im-
possible, for, if under the free-trade regime a
high rate of interest bespeaks extended emu-
Illeree and prosperity, a low rate of interest
must indieate the reverse.
Hut the most satisfactory refutation of the
strange doctrines is to be found iu the past
history of previous periods of commercial
difficulty in this country. In the autumn of
1847 it was found necessary to suspend the
operation of the Bank charter in order to pre-
yent universal bankruptcy. That measure
was called for solely through the scarcity of
bullion, and that scarcity was caused by a de-
plorably deficient harvest, which necessitated
enormous purehusem of forcie food. Looking
farther back, we find that in the autumn of
18341 the Bank was compelled to borrow from
the sister establishment France, in order
to enable her to meet her engagements. What
brought about that necessity? Precisely the
saute cause which operated in I,4l7—viz.' a
deficient home supply of food, occasioned by
two bad harvests in succession. At present
we perceive the same causes operating as at
the two periods we have named, but happily
not as yet to the Millie extent. The harvest
has lawn notoriously deficient, more so, We
tear, than is generally supposed, and our im-
portations of foreign grain have been huger
than in any former year. These obvious
causes. isimbined with the threatening aspect
of continental affairs, have depressed the
funds and raised the rate of discounts ; and
hence our ingenious contempontry, by a pro-
cess of reasoning which we confess our in-
ability to follow, arrives at the cheerful eon-
elusion that we have arrived at a pitch of
prosperity which we never knew before.
The exposure of these sophistries may be
insidered superfluous. hut, appearing as
hey have done in a journal which professes
teach the soundest commercial philosophy,
hey deserve notiee. An attempt is hieing
made to mislead public opinion upon a ques-
tion of vital importance, and to create a
.-hievons sense of security, at a time when the
Isrect Of the commercial world ought to in-
spire the utmost prudence and eireunispee-
s It is for these Silineiela reasons, there-
tore, that we have departed from our rule to
notice eolllellipolliry eollllllelllS.

THE PROMISED REFORM BILL.
VAniors modes have been suggested by which
Ministers may escape from their self-imposed
but difficult task of reforming the Constitu-
tion. That it is their interest. and come
ineptly their desire, to do this nobody doubts.
They have got out of the reform cry all they
are likely to get—a year of respite to reconcile
differences, fame meaatires, and conciliate
the aid of conflicting parties. To their well
balanced position. resting half on Conservative,
half on Democratic, support, action of any
kind must be fatal. If they go far, they will
lose the Tories, the old Whigs. and moderate
men generally. If they hesitate. and shrink
from decided measures, they must irrevocably
alienate the Radical section, whose patience
has already been extensively tried. Nor
would it be endured by the Liberals, as a
party. that. after three years of delay and de-
liberation, after solemn engagements entered
into. and unlimited credit given, their leaders
,hould come tOrward with a proposition less
extensive, and therefore less acceptable to
them, than that which, in Lord Joni so
lignally failed to carry.
Lord Ammibv.F.N's tiovernment, then. lois
every inducement to commit a bread' of Midi.
It cannot fulfil its promises to the sat istitetion
of all parties. Most probably it cannot fulfil
them to the satisfaction of any party. There
is. confessedly, no agitation in the country.
nor the possibility of creating an agitation.
People are thinking of anything and every-
thing rather than the new Reform Bill. Now
It Is the Peace Conference—now intervention
In favour of Turkey—now the repeal of the