The Express.
London, England, 1863-11-06 00:00:00

COTTON SUPPLY.

(From the Circular, dated Nov. 5, of Neill Brothen and Co.)
It is now necessary to cut a glance to the future,
and to ascertain, so fares we can, bow the present increased
rate of oonistoptke is likely to be met. An oilman has
recently been put forward very prominently by a well.kriown
Manchester statist. It has been stated by Mr. Ashworth
that we ere likely to have an Increased supply in 1864 as
compared with 1863 to the following extent :—From Tur-
key, an increase of 200,000 bales of 4401b5. ; Italy, its,
10,000 ; India. 350,000 ; F4ypt, 100,000; Brazils and other
countries, 150,000; total inarease, 818,000 biles. We should
be very happy Wined if our 'dykes would enable us to eon-
firm this estimate in detail, but we are compelled
to take exception to it. In our May circular we
called the particular attention of the trade to the notice
Bead opening up in Turkey, and one of our Arm
has since had extended opportunities of investigating
the question on the spot. Mr. Ashworth's estimate gives an
increase of 200,000 bane of 440 lbs. on the crop of last war,
which he calls 40 to 50,0(0 bales ; making, say 250,000 bales
of 440 lbs. equal to 370,000 Turkish bales, averaging about
300 lbs. each. Now we cannot gee say reran to believe
' that the entire crop of Turkey will musk emend 200,000
bales, and if England receive onnhalf of it, or at most one-
third of Mr. Ashworth's estimate, it is as much as can be
expected. And this would show extracallaary progress—
an increase upon the past year's impartable of about 300
per osat. The estimate of 100,000 balm innfenee from Egypt
54hatil 1
000 y as fair as any that can be made. That of
balm increase from Basil and all inn oonatries, In-
d China, is large, but it is quite impoisibie to form an
ilea the eat at high pricer In drawing OUPPlies from
the latter eotatry. Irrespective of China, an increase of
50,000 bales would probably be h to athcalate upon.
As to India the estimate is a One, and thould
the sown prove favourable throughout, • still larger
itin-
Taos the deficient crop of the present year might be
eix But as the crop has only lately been planted, n
yet, although it has had • favourable start, many
vicissitudes to pass through, and as it cannot, at the beat,
arrive in this country in quantity till the minims of next
yeas, it cannot be sea ith upon for any immediate relief to the
necessities at our manufetheiren. Mr. Ashworth estimates
the increase in the demand for export at 200,000 bales.
Should this calculation be realised it le to be hoped that the
drain will be postponed till the latter end of the yen, when
the augmented supply from India may be on the market,
for otherwise it would absorb the larger proportion of the
increased imports.
Looking forward only twelve month@ from this date (in-
stead of to all 1864, to which Mr. Ash worth's estimate
refers) we cannot calculate upon more than two-thirds of
the increne from the next East Indian crop being received.
' Assuming that the season continues favourable throughout,
1 we think that a total increase of 450,000 bales might be
anticipated. Two-thirds of this falling in the coming
twelve months would gin an increase from India of
300,000 bales of say 3501ba. ; allow for Turkey an increase
of 100,000 bales of say 300th.. ; allow for Egypt an increase
of 100,000 bales of say 450113. ; allow for elsewhere an in-
armee of 100,000 bale' of say 3001bn—total neaten, 600,000
bale.. Deduct inenand export, estimated at 170,000 bale..
Net increase, 430,000 bale.. To be added to consumption of
pen 12 months, 1,356000 bales. Total supply for
home medes, 1,688,000 bales. Or 32, balm
per week, leaving the stook in Liverpool the same
as at pretest. This supply would as nearly as
possible correspond with the present rate of con-
sumption ; but it must be observed that while the oonsump-
two promises (if sup ' of cotton admit of it) to be main-
tained pretty y at this or nearly this amount, on-
half of the increased supply cannot be reckoned upon till
the last three months of the seam. This may cause a I
severe strain upon docks in the isterval, particularly of
East Indian and other short-stapled cottons, unless con.
sumptioo be reduced by circuasithoss extraneous to the
oottoa market.

thealiove wrs in type ({its publication being delayed
for the most recent statistics) Mr. Ashworth's estimate has
been corrected by that of Mr. Cheatham, a high authority
cm the subject Although our year *ins and ends two
months sooner than his dates, by which we obtain a cow-
with the actual return of a completed year, it will
Crotelved that there is no essential difficulties between us.
We may remark, however, that from Italy end Sicily our
advices do not lead us to expect to Great Britain more
than half Mr. Cheetham's figures, and that although, like
himself, eenguine of a continued increase from Turkey and
the shore' of the Mediterranean, we fear that it well be
many years (whatever the inducement of price) before the
yield attains the magnitude of 2,000,000 bake. However,
as our figures show, we are inclined to be more hopeful of
India than ha) . . . . . . . .

--The priToecling statements and °ambitious refer exclu-
sively to the cotton trade of Liverpool ; but now that the
supremacy at America as a source of supply hers ceased, the
London market has increased in relative importance. The
arrivals at this post during the past ten months have
amounted to 200,100 ham (representing at present prices a
value of 8,000,00014, the exports to 162,400 bales, and the
Islas for home ciessamptioa to 88,400 bales.