The Express.
London, England, 1855-09-17 00:00:00

THE WHEAT CROP.

(From the the &vamping.)
The continued tendency to an advance in the corn
linnets of Europe is an event, especially in the present
somewhat critical cesditios of the money market, which
cannot be looked upon with indifference altogether, inde.
pendeatly of the private inconvenience which attends high
prices. Unfortunately the means of ascertaining the esteat
and the quality of the corn crops in the different countries
in the world an extremely vague and uncertain, and even
ea
approximation to the truth can only be arrived at by a
ireful collection of very general data. There can be
little doubt that so far as regards the different coun-
tries in Europe, the wheat crop hes not realised the
expectations formed of it two months ago; and that
as a whole it is far from being equal to the crop of 1864 Oa
the other hand, the deficiency taken by itself is not such en I
at first sight would appear to justify the rapid
sad considerable rise of pries which has recently taken
pleas in the markets of Paris and London, and, syropithis ,
is* with them, in the interior and local markets of the '
West of Europe. The crops of 1854 may be stated to have
generally been above an average, especially as regards wheat,
la this country, in France, Belgium, and a greai part of
Germany ; bat, n tholes, the demand for the Mediter-
ranean, and exhausted condition of the stocks every where,
following the bad harvest of 1853, prevented that fall of
priers which unpin otherwise have been looked for.
But notwithesindieg the largeness of the crop of
1854, it is aow a matter beyond any doubt that the
stocks in the West of Europe, and especially in France and
Belgium, at the commencement of the late h , were
not larger than they were in 1854. This fact, nee:peered
as it may bevel been, is satisfactorily accounted for by 'eve.
ral considerstions--80010 apply to all countries alike—others
specially to particular countries.
It will be generally admitted that the wheat crop of 1854
seethe largest, taking breadth and yield together, that was
ever produced In the United Kingdom. No doubt it fol
I one of the worst harvests which had been experienced
for many years; and, therefore, came upon the country with
ex exhausted stock. That, however, would cot of itself
have been sufficient to maintain the high prices of the last
year. Bat it is now quite clear, and after the est essence of
the last few years we mast accept it as an estsblisued feet,
that notwithstanding the greatly increased production of
wheat in this country, the consumption has increased in er-)
much larger a ratio, that it an no longer be said that in any
year the United Kingdom produces enough for its own
'assumption. Before the abolition of the corn laws,
less than tea years ago, it was only in yeses of
failure that foreign corn came is aid of that
grown at home, and then it might fairly be said, that prices
were determined almost exclusively by the fluctuations in
our own crops. The restrictive system which then prevailed
uniformly compressed the consumption into such a quantity
as was in ordinary years produced. Such being the case, if
the harvest exceeded suck ordinary average, prices were
immediately greatly depressed, and it was only when the
h was very bad, and prices extremely high, that
foreign supplies came to our assistance. These facts ones-
eerily led to the extreme fluctuations which then prevailed.
Now,the consumption bring so much increased as to require
every year some foreign *ore, the pries of that grown at
home is determined not alone by our own crops, but in a
great degree by the extent of cur importations; and as the
latter are always likely to fall off in the fees of declining
price., the same depression from a large crop at home is
never again likely to be felt as in former years.
Thus, though the crop at home was so large in
1884, yet, as the importations from abroad imme-
diately fell off, the deficiency in the one supply appeared
to make up for the excess in the other, and prices were
est, therefore, materially altered. From the beginning of
August. 1853,t0 the same date in 1854, there were imported
6,087,976 qrs. of wheat, and 4,882.066 cwts. of flour ; while
tree the beginnin& of August. 1854, to the corresponding
date in the Dement year, the importation of wheat amounted
only to 2,335,431 qrs., and of flour to 1,588,892 nets. Thus
we find that in aid of the harvest of 1854, as compared with
that of 1853. we have received of foreign suplies less f
wheat by 2,732,644 qrs., and of flour by 3,293, p 164 virtu— oa
quantity of wheat and flour which, by ordin ay commits-
tion, would be equal to the maintenance of more than three
millions of the population. This statement of facts, derived
from official ratline, at once explains why the large crop of
1854 did not produce a greater effect upon price", and
why it appears to have left us with little or no more
old wheat on hand than we had a year ego; for it shows
that if the home crop was so much better, the foreign
supplies wan lees by nearly four millions of quarters then
in the preceding year. We have fa these computations
adopted the years from the Ist of August to the Ist of
August in each ease, as being the division which beet shows
the influence which the quality and character of the harvest
and importations relatively exert over each other.
With regard to the crop of the present year, whatever
may have been anticipated at one time, it is now we fear
fully admitted on all hands, and with too much tenth, to fall
short of that of lest year, and in some districts very coesi-
derably short. On the whole, even taking into account the
most favoured districts, it is no longer doubted that the
result of the harvest is below an average. Future prices
must therefore depend upon the extent of the supplies which
Iwe receive from abroad. If they are not greater than up se
which we have received during the last twelvemonths, we
manse look for the present pries being at least maintained.
In this respect, so fee as regards the continent of Europe,
we moat be prepared to expect rather a decrease in the
ia-
rob than an increase. Is France, the wheat crop is more
deficient than it is in this country, and the ennenenption hes
relatively increased se much of late yens. In place, then, of
any surplus 'o export, the French are at this time importers
of wheat, and will continue to be so all the year. The
enetries bordering on the Mediterranean have for many
yens past derived large supplies from the Russian pone ha
the Black Sea. They depended upon that sourcelest
before it wee resorted to by England and France. Tai
supply has been an off for a great t art of last yen, and is
likely to be so for some time to come. Those countries are
therefore likely to be importers from the west, rather then
exporters. The trope in the south of Runis,if, under pew
Nat circumstances, they can exert any influence at all,
ere extremely defective, especially of rye and osni.
In Austria, a government return just published
Motes that the grain crop. are en average, and no sopeehen-
miss is entertained of deficiency. In Northern Germany,
however, the crops of all kinds are less or more drfiefent,
and they an already importing rosin both from neighbour-
ing notaries in Europe and from the United States. In
Weals the wheat crop is represented as being good, but
the rye erop, whic constutes the chief fd of the popula-
tion, is very short.h Spain is the only country in Europe
which seems to have any eaten of grain available for exports,
Wm, the greatest portion of which will be taken by France
Gni the Mediterranean States.
fie far, then, as regards Europe, mutton look gloomy
enough ; and, if we had no other resource left, we could
only expect even higher prices than those now ezistisr.
Bat, if the accounts at home and from the Continent are
not very cheering, those from the United States and Canada,
even taking allowance for considerable exaggeration, are
well calculated to modify our anxiety. The env of wheat is
said en eL heads to be the largest ever grown. Estimates
eolith beer ell the appearance of gnat We, make the
obese impel the United States alone equal to 23,000,000 qrs.
The nip of Indian corn, also, which, as forming a
of the food of the people. is almost as important
sakdag the surplus available for exportation, is Ile
hire inseend. Seth are the amounts which nate sr.
se well by pereinal enema niceties with eye-witness en by
all the wriest and printe4 etellupsnie Whisk we left
receive. At the nn time, inithinle. ON <r taw s-

considerable period since the demo( their wheat harvest,
we are led to moped that there may be some exaggeration
in these statements, from the feet that notwitbstunding high
prices, the supplies from the Western States continue to be
very small ; and this at least indicates that, however large
the erns may be, the (amen are in no hurry to sell. Up to
the present time, the purchases In the Eastern ports es,
German, French, and English acc cunt, but Ms fly for the
two former, are so much in emcees of my arrivals from the
west, that the report of so abendant a crop has not pre
• rated prices from rising. And in estimating the ability er
the United States to export grain, we must not overlook a
fact felt more and more, that the proportion of the con-
suming population to the producing is every year in-
creasing. It is now some time since the States of New
Yolk, Philadelphia, and others in the east, ceased to
i produce as much grain an they consume, and every ye►r
adds considerably to the quantity they require from the
west. Again, Califorois, where the crops in the premed
year are deficient, has become a large additional channel for
the surplus of the western states. If, therefore, we give due
weight to the favourable accounts of the crops of the United
States, but consider Ilse, many independent sources of
deemed their surplus will be required to supply, there is no
reason to expect that any such large shipments will be made
to this country, em, takcog other sources into account, will
swell our foreign supplies materially above those of last
year; and we, therefore, fear that there are no good
grounds for expecting any important reduction from present
prices; and that, on the contrary, we may consider ourselves
fortunate if no further rise takes place.
There is, bowever, this consolation of a character some-
what new, that in a great Measure the high prices, not only
in this country, but also is Fmuce and other neighbouring
countries, are caused by a general improvement in the condi-
tion of the people, and an elevation in their manner of diet,
rather than by any actual deficiency of production.