The Press.
London, England, 1856-01-05 00:00:00

Corrtsponttuct.

ANALYSIS OF WAR OBJECTS.
TO THE EDITOR OF " THE PRESS."

Sir,—lt is admitted by all parties that in the pre-
sent war a goal, whether near or distant, must be
fixed. It will not do to carry on war for we know
not what, and for a period we know not how long :
whatever, therefore, our views on the war may be, we
ought to be able to state the objects we wish to
secure by that treaty of peace which even the most
warlike fanatics must look to as the ultimate end of
the present struggle. It has occurred to me, there-
fore, that, in order to facilitate in some respect this
precision of opinion, au exhaustive analysis of the
political ends which may be served by the war in its
different phasis of development if it continues, and
a statement of the motives by which the allies are
likely successively to be actuated, and of the advan-
tages and disadvantages incident to the several views
which may be taken of a treaty of peace, might be
of use.
The pcssible views of peace naturally divide into
two broad and distinct classes :
I. A peace in harmony with existing circum-
stances.
11. A peace other than what present circum-
stances will allow.
I. The conditions of a treaty of peace in harmony
with existing circumstances must be an embody
ment of the minimum the allies have a right to '
demand. Luckily this minimum is now stated by a
neutral power, nor have we any fault to find with the
Austrian programme. I remark, however, that it
differs from the former attempt in this, that the
material guarantees, so far as regards the safety of
Turkey, are already secured by the destruction of
Sebastopol and the Russian fleet, and that the free
navigation of the Danube, proposed to be secured by
the cession of Russian territory, is on Austrian rather
than on European interest, and might as well have
been excluded from the ultimatum ; that, as to the
paper guarantees sought to be exacted, they might
have been framed in a way inferring somewhat less
humiliation on Russia; and, lastly, that Austria and
the allies have wisely excluded any demand for in-
demnification, doubtless thinking that the result of
the war did not justify the infliction of this bitterest
humiliation on Russia.• The advantages of such
a treaty of peace as Austria proposes are,
.first,
that it is the only ode whereby an immediate
termination can be put to the war ; second,
that France and England may carry out such a '
treaty in unison, as it does not evoke any rival
interests betwixt them. The disadvantages
are, (1) that, as such a treaty leaves the territorial
preponderance of Russia very much where it was,
and does not arrest the decay of Turkey, it can only
be regarded as a truce till Russia recruit her losses,
which, according to all historical precedent, she will
do in a few years ; (2) that it puts a conclusion to
the war just when we have accomplished the develop-
ment of our resources, but before we have been able
to bring them to bear effectively on the enemy, so as
to obtain results in some degree commensurate to
the enormous expense we have incurred; (3) that
we may never again have such au opportunity of
effectually checking Russian aggression, but, on the
contrary, Russia may select a time for renewing her
attempt on Constantinople when the " alliance" is no
longer in existence.
11. But suppose the present negotiations to be
abortive, several distinct views may be taken of the
future treaty of peace. These may be conveniently
arranged under three heads :

* Has Turkey been made a patty to the present proposals?

11

1. The English point of view.
2. The French point of view.
3. The cosmopolitan point of view.
1. The English point of view. The safety of
England depends on her naval supremacy and her
Indian army. The first is endangered by the possi-
bility of a coalition between two or more European
powers whose combined navies may equal ours; and
it, is from Russia alone that any attack on our Indian
possessions is to be feared. Now, manifestly, the
destruction of the Cronstadt fleet would indefinitely
postpone the first danger; while the continuance of
the war, by weakening the military power of Russik
will increase the relative strength of our Indian
army, meantime wisely kept intact. The English
point of view, therefore, is not to make peace tilt the
Russian fleet in the Baltic be destroyed. The ad-
vantages of this view of a peace are already stated.
The disadvantages are, (1) the continuance of the
war, and (2) the difEculty of carrying France along
with us in such a policy—the destruction of the
Russian fleet being rather against her policy, and the
security of our Eastern possessions being to ber a
matter of ii.difference.

2. As the interest of Napoleonic France is to be
the paramount continental power, the principal ob-
stacle to which is the military strength and great ter-
ritorial possessions of Russia, the interest of Louis
Napoleon is that Russia be dismembered. But,
owing to the geographieal position of France and
Russia, this cannot be done by annexing to the
former what is taken from the latter ; nor, according
to the traditions of the Napoleon dynasty, can this
be done by the reconstruction of Poland, which, at
all times a semi-republican State, would evoke revo-
lutionary passions which it is the function of Louis
Napoleon to repress. This difficulty was felt by the
first Napoleon when on the eve of his Russian inva-
sion. "J'aime," said he to Narbonne, " les Polonais
sur les champ de botaille mais quant I leurs as-
sembles deliberantes leur liberum veto, leurs IJietes
cheval subre, nu je ne veux rien de tout cela.
resurrection de la Pologne semi.republicaine sera%
un bien autre embarras quo su dure3 sans interrup4
tion. Je veux dans la Pologne un camp et pas de
forum." Acting, therefore, in conformity with the
" Idee Napoleonienne," the present Emperor of the
French would probably try to effect the dismemberment
of Russia by the creation of military kingdoms sub-
ordinate to France, like Westphalia and Italy under
the first empire. The advantage of such an arrange-
ment would be that it would effectually stop the
career of Russia. The disadvantages would be, (1)
the increased power of France, (2) the difficulty of
maintaining the English alliance, and (3) the cer-
tainty of a European war.
J. The cosmopolitan view contemplates the recon-
struction of the kingdom of Poland and the cession
of Finland to Sweden. The advantages of such O
view are, (1) that, while thoroughly stopping the
career of Russia, it does not imply the dangerous
aggrandisement of France, and (2) that, in the
coarse of carrying it into effect, the English interest
in the destruction of the Baltic fleet would probably
be realised. The disadvantages are, (1) that the
reconstruction of I'oland would, by entrainment,
occasion a revolution in Italy and anotherin Hungary,
which would imply a general European war, and (2)
that, independent of the sufferings of such a crisis,
the irruption of so many passions and conflicting
interests would bring about a statc, of things the
ultimate result of which it is impossible even to
guess.—Yours, obediently, J. A G.

FROM THE LONDON GAZETTE.
Tuesday, Jan. 1.

BANKRUPTCY ANNULLED.-Moms PARKER WARM,
Salvador-house, Bishopsgate-street, City, wool broker and
banker.
BANKRUPTS.--•WILLIAM Ez.sam, Heyford and Rugbrook.
Northampton, ironstone master—RowLesn HILL BLACKER,
Ludgate-street, City, importer of foreign silk goods, mantle
raanufactxrer, and warehouseman—LEONAßD Larnmas, Chan-
cery-hthe, Middlesex, law stationer—WlLLlAM VitoutNs, Hawley.
mills, near Dartford, Kent, paper manufacturer—James HARRI.
sow, City, commission agent--Gisosoz WAGNER, Bernard-stresie
Russell square, Middlesex, auctioneer and house agent—WTl.
SKAGER WHITE, Soho-street, llandsworth, Stafford, chemist
and druggist—Jewess' Noses, Lower Hospital-street, Birming-
ham, glass cutter--GEORGZ TAYLOR, Derby, silk manufacturer—
mcri:a itauxes, York, innkeeper—lsa►c FIRTH, Thomas-street,
Manchester, victualler and coffee-house keeper.
SCOTCH SEQUKSTRATIONS.—CorLum and BRICKYA),W.
Dundee, ship brokers and general commission merchant:—
PETER STOIIO, Norfolk-street, Glasgow, smith and izonniongex-h.
Maxwerd. Nltt.Les, Glasgow, coppersmith.

Friday, January .1.
BAN KRU rTs.—KOTILIiT LAWRENCE PHILLIPS, and GEORGE:
DOUGLAS PuttuPs, King William-street, City, general mer.
chants—Mom CutoutAa, East Donyland, Essex, shipowner—
MALCOLM RONALD LUNG MEASON. Manchester-bllildiEgS, City.
merchant—THomAs 5/1111WIN, Loughborough, Leicester, COLAS!
—HENRY L &risks, Manchester, money scrivener—Roust=
WELLS, ,Kingston•upon-Hull, taiIor—THOMAS FOULDS, Bing-
ley, Yorkshire, coach proprietor—ALstirr Pairrsit, Weldon.
super-Mare, brewer RICHARD GREENE, Lichfield, bankft
—THOMAS BAaiF, Harrogate, Yorkshire, notel-kef per DA.
.10 JOHN VAT:GRAN, Flshguard, Pembrokeshire, maltater-i.
EDWARD GAUNTLYTT and RODENT LIVING, Camden-town,
Middlesex, builders WILLIAM TGWELL, Walworth-road,
boot-waker WILLIAM MOORE, Bradford, blue and medley

dyer.
SCOTCH SEQUESTRATION.—JOHN Cumie and Om
r.amr, Glasgewlgrain merchants.

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