The Express.
London, England, 1863-07-09 00:00:00

AMERICA.

Crux oca srEcur, coma.srom2a.)
NEW YORK, Jura 27.

The news from "the front," as it appears in the
newspapers, is almost au unintelligible muddle, as
it is mainly made up from the stones brought into
Harrisburg and Philadelphia by terrified fugitives.
The estimates of Lee's force which we find in the
telegram would put Munchausen himself to the
blush, and they make it quite evident that the
runaways multiply every body of Confederates
they see at least by five, and often by ten. Lee's
army was set down at 60,000 strong only four days
ago, which I am satisfied is about the truth, bu
it has ever since been swelling as it progresses. On
Wednesday it was 100,000, and yesterday it had
reached 125,000. I presume before a battle is
fought we shall have it up to 200,000. Last year,
when he attempted his invasion, it rose nearly to
300,000 before the battle of Antietam, and his
numbers in that action wero confidently estimated
by the Federal staff at 90,000, but it has
since been proved beyond question that 60,000
at most were all that were engaged, and in fact
all that he had at his disposal. It is all but certain
that the army in Virginia has nut at any time
during the past year exceeded, and does not now
exceed, if it reaches, 100,000 men, and out of this
Richmond has to be garrisoned, ar.d a line of com-
munications, which during an invasion of Penn-
sylvania will be 150 miles long, has to be held.
25,000 men is certainly not too many to allow for
this purpose, and if we deduct 10,000 more for
nou-effectives and stragglers, it will be easily seen
that Lee will find it very difficult to put more than
60,000 in line of battle on Northern soil, and it is
within or about this force, it is now pretty certain,
that he is crossing into Pennsylvania and Mary-
land ; or, perhaps, I should rather say has
crossed. When I last wrote we were in doubt as
to where he was going : this seems now settled,
but the uncertainty about what he is goiug
to do is still as great as ever. here
seems to be no question that he has crossed
in force at various points between Harper's Ferry
and Hancock ; that his advance, composed of
Ewell's (formerly Jackson's) corps, about 20,000
strong, with a large quantity of artillery and an
immense waggon train, is moving along the Cum-
berland Valley Railroad, and is now in or at Car-
lisle, about 20 miles from HarrisbUrg ; and that no
attempt will be made to check them until he
reaches the Susquehanna. As to the exact position
of the main body nothing very trustworthy is
known, but it is undoubtedly across or crossing the
Potomac between the two points I have already
named. As to his plane, there are two theories
current. The one is that he is to march on
Baltimore, carry it by a coup de main, cut
the communications of Washington with the
North, and then descend on it, and if possible
capture it, and the President's cabinet
in it; and from this high vantage ground
apply to Europe for recognition. In this, however,

the existence of Hooker's army is entirely ignored,
as is also the fact that as long as it is in its present
position, or in any position that it is likely to take
up, a movement towards Baltimore or Philadelphia

on the part of Lee would leave the Federala on his
flank and rear, and render his return into Virginia,
except by some extraordinary stroke of luck, all but
impossible. If this plan be ever carried out, it will

only be after the destruction of Hooker's army by
a bloody battle.
The other, and I think the more probable, theory
is, that the invasion of Pennsylvania is " a raid"
_ .

on a grand scale, and has for its main object, like
Bragg's march into Kentucky last autumn, the
seizure of supplies ; but the army, while engaged
in it, will be ready for anything that may turn up.
Northern Virginia is completely desolated, and it

would for this reason have been difficult for Lee to
have maintained himself in his old position during
the summer.

By establishing himself in the Shenandoah
Valley, however, he makes sure of the crops in that
fertile region, which are now nearly ripe, and by
sending columns across the river into Pennsylvania
elms ea tar as Hanisbarg, ba is enabled to farage
in one of the richest districts in the whole Union—
theCumberland Valley, which contains the largest,
best cultivated, and most productive farms that are,
perhaps, to be found in the North. The barns are
bursting all the year round, and horses and cattle
are no less abundant than the corn ; so that Ewell
finds himself in the midst of such plenty as he and
his men have probably for the last two years only
seen in their dreams. His division is accompanied
by an enormous train of empty waggons, which jus-
tifies the supposition that they are about to carry off
as much plunder as they can, while they have
already seized and appropriated all the horses along
their line of march. In doing this be is not
only ministering to the wants of his own army,
but he is gratifying the long-cherished, long-re-
pressed desire of the Southern people, " that the
North should be made to feel the war." The
Southern States have felt it in all its bitterness, and
from the outset the strongest ground of complaint
against Jefferson Davis hes been the defensive po-
licy which made the South the scene of all the
active operations. This transference of it to
Northern soil will, therefore, be a source of intense
" gratification" to his public, and it is also not im-
possible that he and they are possessed by the belief
that actual experience of the inconveniences of the
war may strengthen the hands of the peace party
at the North, and drive a still larger number of
the timid and money-loving into their ranks.
There is one other motive which, it is supposed,
has influenced the Confederate leaiere in determi-
ning upon this move more than all the others, and
that is the desire to counteract the effect
upon the morale of the Southern people,
as well as of their friends abroad, of the
fall of Vicksburg and Port Hudson, which is now
impending, and in fact may be said to be certain.
Johnstone has unquestionably given up all inten-
tion of attempting to raise the siege of Vicksburg,
and is devoting himself to making arrangements for
staying Grant's progress when it is over, and at
Port Hudson the small and ill-supplied garrison is
already in extreesis. The desperationof the struggle
made by the South for the retention of these places,
the gravity of the consequences likely to result from
their capture, as well as the gratuitous statement
of Jefferson Davis to the Mississippi Legislature
last winter, that "he would stake the fate of
the Confederacy upon his holding them," would

render their loss the heaviest blow and the greatest
discouragement which the South has yet sustained,
and would do much to shake the faith both of its
own people and of its friends in Europe in its ulti-
mate success if nothing were done to set it
off, or distract the public attention from
it. Nothing that could be devised for this purpose
would be half so efficacious as a raid iuto the
Northern States, as it bears the appearance of un-
abated energy and pluck, and administers a sort
of slap in the face to the Federal government. So
that it may be safely conjectured that the political
importance of the movement is greater than its
military importance, and that Lee will con-
sider that he has accomplished his object,
even if he taken nothing by his dash be-
yond horses and cattle. That this is the view
evidently taken of the matter at the North is
proved both by the state of the gold market and
by the perfect calm which everywhere prevaila. In
spite of the panic-stricken telegrams which reach us
here every hour from Harrisburg, the price of gold
remains almost unshaken—having only risen about
2 per cent. within a week, aid being very un-
steady even at that, and the subscriptions to
the five-twenty loan continue to pour in
at the same rate as before. There is, in
fact, a general feeling that this is not a real
invasion, but a diversion—the struggle of men in
" a fix " to do something or anything that will
stave off the inevitable hour. New York still
continues to forward troops to Pennsylvania, fifteen
regiments having already gone from this city ; but
there is by no means the excitement there would be
if Lee's advance were the consequence of a
disaster to the Federal arms. Attention is concen-
trated rather on Hooker and Grant than on Penn-
sylvania, for it is felt that the really decisive blows
are to be struck on the Potomac or at Vicksburg,
happen what may at Harrisburg or Philadelphia.
This may help in some measure also to account for
he apathy of the Pennsylvanians themselves, who
are not volunteering in any great numbers, their
conduct on this occasion forming a singular contrast
Ito their behaviour last year, when they rose
to a man after Pope's defeat. They have,
however, now come forward in such small
force for the defence of Harrisburg that the
governor has been compelled to order a draft of
60,000 of the militia. There is a general feeling in
the state that the militia will be . but a sort of
" stop-gap," and that the result will be by no
means dependent on anything they may do—that
the real fighting will be done by Hooker.
The news from the army of the Potomac is very
scanty. The newspaper correspondents write under
great restrictions, and the telegraph is mute ; but
I lesrn by private letter from the let coil*, dated
Thursday, that on that day this corpa, which had
been at Guilford Station, was being pushed rapidly
towards Leesburg, and that large bodies of artil-
lery from Heintraldroan's corps at Washington were
moving in the same direction. Harper's Ferry
now forms the extreme right of Hooker's force,
and is well garrisoned and strongly fortified,
and its possession by the Federals makes
a wide difference between the relative posi-
tion of the combatants as it is now, and
as it was last year. It was the opinion of the army
at the date of my correspondent's letter that the