The Stourbridge Observer, Cradley Heath, Halesowen & District Chronicle.
Stourbridge, West Midlands, England, 1875-09-25 00:00:00

THE WHEAT CROP OF 1875.

Mr. James Caird, writing from Casaencary, Cree-
town, N. 8., the 16th inst., has sent the following to
The Times for publication :
Sir,—The publication of the Returns of Acreage exhibits
the smallest breadth of wheat we have had in this ( onntry
since the Returns have been taken, and 500,000 acres less
than the average extent previous to 1860, when we had four
million fewer people to provide for. The decrease in Ireland
has been 14 per cent from the previ:,ns year, that of Great
Britain nearly 8. A fall of 25 per cent, in the price at once
diminished the production to the extent of 330,000 acres, or
nearly one-tenth of the total wheat crop of the United
Kingdom. So rapid and considerable a ehangei n the extent
of our principal food crop would have remained unrevealed
but for these Returns, the great value of which both to the
consumer and producer becomes clearly manifested in a
year like the present. It can hardly be doubted that foreign
growers who have looked to us for a market for their surplus
will, to some extent have been similarly influenced by the
sudden fall in prices, and that we mast be prepared, not
only for the consequences of a smaller yield, but also for a
generally diminished area in other countries besides our own.

The Returns fully confirm the opinion, expressed in my
former letter, of a deficiency equal to one month's con-
sumption, thus rendering us dependent on the foreigner for
64 insteafi of 5} months' supply. But fortunately this will
be largely modified by two circumstances—first, the very
favourable weather, which has enabled the harvest to be
concluded without loss; and secondly, by the fact that the
surplus of the abundant crop of 1874 has already carried us
at least three weeks into the new harvest. year, and in that
proportion diminished our dependence on that of 1875.
The crop of 1874 exceeded the average in extent and
very greatly in yield, and, as there was no corresponding
diminution in foreign imports, it ought to have left tlll
with a large surplus. At this time last year I esti-
mated our foreign requirements at little over nine
million quarters. We have actually received 11,700,000
within the harvest year. The very low price consequent on
this over-supply led to a lavish use of the crop, a considerable
quantity of which was taken for cattle food, as it was cheaper
than oats or oilcake. But the proof that a surplus remained
Is found in the fact that the crop of 1874 and the heavy im-
ports have given us already nearly 13 months' consumption,
the present harvest having been from two to three weeks
later than an average, and the new crop nearly a month.
later in coming into use. If next harvest is ready at the
average time we shall thus have to provide for little more
than 11 months' consumption, or 22 million quarters alto-
gether, 11 millions of which we have at home, and 11 we
must get from abroad.
The ability of foreign countries to send us this quantity, is
measured by the imports of the last four years, could not be
doubted During that period foreign•gron th had been stimu-
lated by four successive years of high prices which resulted
In the largest supplies of foreign wheat we have ever re-
ceived. "1 he crop of 1874 was in all countries abundant, and,
notwithstanding the great fall of price, it continued to come
to us with little stint. But in those conntries which yield
us the largest supplies the present crop is reported to be at
beat but meagre, and we shall have to draw rather from the
surplus of the abundance of 1874 than the harvest of 1875.
From Russia the supply will probably continue to be liberal,
and Germany seems likely to yield a full share. These two
countries, the bulk of whose population lives chiefly on rye,
export respectively to us on an average one-tenth and one-
eleventh of their wheat. France, which is a much larger
grower of wheat than either, has of late years been able to
spare us but a fortieth part of her produce. The great
crop of 1874 is reckoned by French authorities to have been
equal to forty million quarters. The home consumption
is nearly equal to an average crop, which is thirty mil-
lions. This should have left France with nearly 10 million
quarters on hanri, minus an export of one million quarters.
Deducting this, and something for the deficiency of the pre-
sent crop, there would appear to be a very large stock to be
drawn upon at an adequate price, for France, accustomed to
our four years' average price, of 665., has sent us less than a
tenth of the estimated surplus of her great crop of 1874.
The power of holding ever so large a sueplus implies a
greater degree of wealth among the small French cultivators
than we are in the t ).; of attributing to them, and I am
therefore disposed to think that the surplus of 1874 has been
over-estimated. For, although an increase 01 10 million
quarters on the great wheat acreage of France ib both pro-
bably and possible in a very productive season, being little
more than four bushels an acre, it is hardly conceivable that
France, so much impoverished by the late war, could afford
to wait a year for higher prices on a fourth o f her whole
wheat crop. The largest supply we have received from
France in any year since ISN was 1,800,000 quarters (in 18436,
at 505.), and, with this experience, 11 ear it would not be
safe to rely on more than this exceptional quantity for the
coming year.

My chief apprehension is with regard to the supply'from
the United States and Canada. From that source during the
past three years we have annually received between six and
seven million quarters of wheat, which is considerably more
than one-half of our total imports. Should this fall us in
any material degree we might be pinched. About one mil-
lion quarters of the old crop was reported to be available for
export, at the principal points of accumulation in the Eastern
states, on the eve of the present harvest In California the
crop of this year is rep3rted to be short, and is not expected
to afford more than another million quarters for export.
Private advices of my own from Chicago, of the 2lth of
August last, speak of this year's yield of wheat in the
United States as 25 per cent. short of the previous year, and
higher prices and diminished export are anticipated. On
their immense wheat acreage (24 millions) a deficiency of
even one bushel an acre counts up heavily; and in view of a
not improbable shortcoming in this quarter let us welcome
the supplies which our nearer neighbours in Europe seem at
present anxious to press upon us.

Commenting on Mr. Caird'a statistics, which may be con-
sidered very reliable, The Times, in a leader, writes :

Mr. Caird's estimate of our food prospects, as re-
gards the single article of wheat, is so comfortable and
assuring to all the parties concerned that in accepting
it one feels one has to rely somewhat on the writer's
large professional experience Laid well-known character
for painstaking. From an amateur or politician we
should only accept it with reserve. Upon some of the
figures there can be no doubt that is, if we may believe
the Returns. On the face of them it appears that in
Great Britain there have been this year near three
hundred thousand fewer acres under wheat than last
year. This, and a still greater proportionate decrease in
Ireland, Mr. Caird ascribes to a fall of 25 percent. in the
price of wheat last year. Wheat was falling and stock
was rising, insomuch that the farmers found it answer to
substitute wheat for oilcake and other usual food for
cattle, and made their next year's preparations more
for stock than for wheat. As the Harvest has not been
so abundant this year 33 last, there is a double de-
ficiency, that in acreage and that in the yield; and, so
far, the home farmer has a prospect of better prices
than he had last year. Last year's fall in prices had,
Mr. Caird says, the same effect on the wheat producers
•of other countries, and they did not sow so much wheat
as they had done before. That, too, is all well for the
British farmer, end, indeed, for wheat producers every-
where, The agriculturists of the whole world, to the
heart of every Continent and the remotest shore of the
great ocean now ft ceive by telegram not only our
daily and hourly prices, but even the official estimates
of our Harvests, and-'of the very preparations made

.11 1. 1 L. 4, 6,4 ck. •