The Stourbridge Observer, Cradley Heath, Halesowen & District Chronicle.
Stourbridge, West Midlands, England, 1874-11-21 00:00:00

THE GRAIN TRADE.

The Time, on Monday, published the following letter on
the grain tracts:—

Sir,—Forty-five shillings appears to be sufficient
this year to attract a quarter of wheat to the United
Kingdom, as since harvest our imports of wheat
and flour have been at the rate of over 12 mil-
lion qrs. the estimated wants of the nation being
eight, possibly up to niae million qrs. At
this rate of weekly arrivals, by the end of
January five months will have brought us the largest
half of our requirements, leaving seven months to
supply the three to four million qrs. remaining. With
winter to face we have the comfortable assurance of
receiving abundant supplies already bought and well
on their way to our coasts.

California may justly boast of hating at present
afloat nearly 600,000 Va. of wheat destined for the
United Kingdom. This bulk from a sing% agricultural
State exceeds and doubles the total quantity on pas-
sage from any one country, as the liberal shipments of
Russian saki Danubian ports are rather under 300,000
qrs., while from other countries together the qusntity
is but 210,000 qrs. The pre eminence therefere of
California, promising to continue her shipments on the
same gigantic scale, gives importance to the price-
-455. 6d. per 5001 b., at which an indefinite supply is
now on offer. Such a price must to a great extent
remain the future basis of value in the British markets,
as being the level at which our largest supply has been
and may be purchased, while its arrival will continue
constant, if irregular, up to another harvest.

English wheat, reduced in many markets to a pound
a sack, and now milling at an average of 41s. 5i1., is
generally supplied in excess of demand at this rate,
and Russian wheat competes with other sorts, and is
shipped freely at from 38s. to 41s. During the
present week, however, the first sharp frosts of winter
have given an upward direction in value to the extent
of Is. to 2s. per qr., which might mislead opinions if
the above-mentioned facts were not sufficient to stamp
the year with plenty and cheapness. There are also
several secondary facts to add assurance to the primary
ones. The stocks of old wheat in America prove larger
than were expected, and the bulk is immediately avail-
able for continuous shipments. Theseand the full sup-
plies from the late harvest, must enable America to for.
ward an equal bulk to th at sent last year, a gross quantity
in wheat And flour of over ten million qrs. exported,
but from which France and other customers took a
share that reduced the British supply to seven million
qrs. This season, however, the other customers
scarcely compete, and the weight of America's ship-
ments must fall on England; and merchant's already
estimate that their year's export to the United King-
dom must be over six million qrs. A further very
important consideration is that Russia is resuming
this Autumn the leading part occupied in 1872 and
1873, in which years her exports were very much
larger than in 1874.
Again, in respect to Russia, Marseilles, the half
way house of her ships to the United Kingdom, will
not want to stop the one vessel out of the three that last
year was bought from us in competition, while the
good Hungarian harvest should supply those districts
of Switzerland and Germany which commonly receive
wheat from the Mediterranean ports. These circum-
stances make it very unlikely that Russia and the
Danube will not export a full average bulk, and the
other countries which can export this year, but could
not do so last year—Germany, France, and Austria- -
should be able to funnels a total of two or three
million qrs.
BABA supplies since harvest make up the curious
sum of being the game during the past three years,
the outcome from farmers' barns being no more this
plentiful season than in last year's very deficient one
—in fact that infers that future supplies must come in
freely, and will cause millers to act with extreme re-
serve should any temporary winter scarcity occur, in
the weekly imports. While the above remarks indicate
that present prices are sufficient, and that supplies
exist in large excess of our wants, any serious decline
from the 48e. to the 38e. range of value would be likely
to check sudden foreign shipments, and make
farmers as a body withhold their corn from market,
for this year is an exceptionally strong one for absorb-
ing and storing supplies, the number of growers,
merchants and millers who could hold and store wheat
being at its maximum throughout Europe, as the ne
cessities of recent deficient years has e exhausted
granaries seldom before empty on the Continent.
Low prices already have withdrawn considerable quan-
tities of inferior English wheat from the corn market
to the uses of farm stock ; but the baker's basket of
loaves must always he full before any drop out of it into
the stockkeeper's animal trough, and the farmer having
secondary wheat ready to hand will often find it on that
account cheaper as cattle food than the imported corn,
oats, maize, or barley, which he has to cart from a
I distance, and pay for in cash. Thus the animal takes
only from man's plenty, never hem his scarcity. It
may be remarked this season that the supply of flour
keeps always in excess of demand, notwithstanding the
great restriction of water power in the East of England
and in France; and when the winter rains remove
this obstacle to the manufacture of flour on a full scale,
the market will be exposed to a pressure that has not
yet been felt, the competition of French wheat and
flour not having been possible hitherto. At present
the number of cargoes arrived and on offer at our ports
of call is very reduced, and gives sellers an advantage
which has enabled them to advance prices 2s. per qr.
since Wednesday; but reflection shows that such
scarcity must be only momentary, steamers bringing
100,000 qrs. of wheat, and 210 ships on passage and
shipping being due, some at once and a large proper.
tion within a month. •
These particulars; and the growth of a good potato
crop at home, in ranee, and Germany undoubtedly
heavily weight the corn trade this year; but something
like a counterpoise to balance and keep steady the
price of wheat is the high range in value of barley,
now dearer than wheat, 140Ib. Haling as much as
5001 b. of wheat. Oats, too, are also high in price,
and likely to remain on, from the absence of sup-
plies equal to consumption : and maize is in still
greater scarcity, and 7s. to Its, above its usual price.
Opposed to these quotations wheat is relatively under
its value, and as there are no immediate chances of
cattle corn becoming cheaper, it would be natural to
expect the price of wheat to right itself, and it would
do so in most cases. Apparently, however, the cheap
influences of large supplies thrown upon the one
market, England, added to a favourable autumn
season for seeding the European wheattielde, will be
irresistible, and sufficient to restrict value to its present
low level for the Winter, possibly to reduce it further
in Spring and Summer, should prospects then remain
favourable for harvest.
Excellent flour, selling at 30s. te 355. made from
wheat at 40s. to 46&per quarter, and making probably
92 loaves per sack, gives, at lid. per loaf, a profit
of about 10s, per sack to the baker, and some
public dissatisfaction is therefore expressed at the
price of bread remaining at 7d. per loaf and upwards
in many districts, especially as in others the price is
as low HS 611. Whether bakers can work their
trade at less than IN. to 15s, per sack is
for themselves to determine, but families consuming
much bread should know that by their own labour
they can convert 30s, worth of flour into 455. worth of
bread, a high percentage for their trouble.
In conclusion, while only recording individual
opinion I may add that the existing cheap currencies
of wheia, appear to be a basis for sound and healthy
trade, on which buyers and sellers may at present act
without vexatious reserve (the dubious shilling more or
less fluctuating between them, now on one side, now
on the other), hut that any pressure to drive up or
further depress price would create future difficulties
and losses which the grain trade could not bear, and
should avoid, as a regular and not a speculative de-
mand, affords safety in the existing situation of affairs.
—I am, Sir your obedient servant,
H. RAINS-JACKSON.
Sc, seething-lane, E.C., Noy 14.