The Stourbridge Observer, Cradley Heath, Halesowen & District Chronicle.
Stourbridge, West Midlands, England, 1888-01-28 00:00:00

CALCULATIO:‘," OF CHANCES.

THE calculation of chances, which enters
largely into the common lot, includes the
calculation of eoneequences as they affect
sacce.ss or failure in the efforts we -pat forth,
gains or losses in business, and safety or
danger in any enterprise. Man is rendered
a calculator, in the sense indicated, by the
conditions of his daily existence, and the
experiences he has to undergo. Life being
a lottery in small things no less than great,
it must necessarily involve the calculation of
chances both in ordinary affairs and in
andertakings which have momentous issues
for good or evil. In the elementary or
physical phase, the lower animas possess
this calculative facalty in common with
hnelan beings. The lion measures with his
eye the intervening distance before taking
the .final spring upon his prey; the cat sur-
ieys for a moment the height of a wall
prt \ions to jumping to the top; the trout
closely observea the position of•the Mayfly
ere leaping from the stream; and the beaver
forms an estimate, to the best of his abillty,
of the amount of work required to give
solidity to the embankment of his dam. In
the case of human beings the calculation of
*chances may be said to commence with the
first attempts to walk alone. 'Less hesitation
is exhibited in trying longer and longer
distances on the floor when the outstretched
hands, ready to catch, have been once safely'
gamed. Even in these infantine efforts
diversities of dispositions, as regards self-
confidence and timidity, are manifested, and
often continue the same throughout the
whole of life. The extent to which the cal-
culation of chances that passes through its '
initial sages in childhood varies greatly in
the expieience ef different individuals,
according to their social condition, the cir-
cumstances in which they are engaged, and
the partienlar dispositions they possess. The
man who lives by his wits, and who may be
oaii d a professional schemer, has a great
deal more to do in the way of etilealating he
cuaeces of success or failure as regards the
iarions psojects he takes in hand than the
man whe is born to a heritage of riches,
eliich relieves him from any anxiety as to
tlie means he must employ in order to make
aelivelihood. If anxiety attaches at times to
speculators in the :fends, occasioned by
monetary panics, originating frequently in
false aiarms, they have excitement enough
an the line of businees .they have chosen to
pserent thorn from falling into tits of ennui,
iie fashianable people wli hkvo too mach
lei=h,re on their hands, and strokes of good
171 e which thee eet down to the wholom
.of their owa caletawi hat stimulate them to
'foie e.e ventures in the aope of attaining
access. Elchaege operators, who
ere.; e 2 alarms in the financial world when
their artfully-laid schemes of investment
are completed, upset the calee'ations of the
nanee-stracken, and promote their own ad-
' vhicage by uufsir means. T.:heir mode of
eing te work resembles that of cheatirg
, leauipulators, who at games of chance make
use o concealed cards or loaded dice, or
who, at gambling resorts, take care to have
the revolving roulette apparatus so regulated
that it dupes the victims, and always plays
into the hands of the bank. A putcw air
is breathed when we come to consider the
calsulatione of chances which fall to tee lot
of statesmen, who are at the head of affairs,
whea they have to decide upon the measures
to be laid before Perliaanent. There are
times when particular circumstances increase
their difficulty in arriving at a deciaon.
They have to take into consideration, not
' only what the sountry needs and expects, but
also the state of parties in the House of
Common, a.nd the probabilities that attach
to the passing, throwing out; or abandonment
of certain measures. It augments the diffi-
culties er the situation when special causes,
which have previously necessitated the post-
ponereent of important legislative business
till a more conveuient tie 9.5011, still continue
to exert the same retording influence by the
too familiar Not:cis of blocking the way.
Cabinet Ministere, when making up their
alieds with reference to the measures to be
intreduced, cannot affo-d to foreet that
;aeir he nrejadicaily affected, in
eyes o the conetituraties, if bills of im-
penance once leunched are withdrawn,
:;ter going theongh FOITIO of their stages,
n the plea that teeere is not safficent time to
, tamit of theirs king passed. It is thne
parent thet statesmen have quite enoug
to trouble theme, in regard to their outlook.
erhon the opening of a 11,3 W Paeliamentara
i3ESTOLI is at hand. Phyeicians of long ex.-
eerienee, amid wel; reputed for their pref.:es-
:meal skill, ere foiled at fault, not unfre-
qaently, in their ca.eulaaions with regard te
:tie chances of reeover,7 or otherwise of' their
petiente. Some who-be eases they prenounce
obe hopeless ItlrtTlf ge to get round again-
others. whale attack they do not oon-
•ider dangerous, succumb to the disease that
•cis fallen apsa them, occasionally with a
suddenness which erosive surprise. But
ebysicians are to be,exeuaed when they make
miatakee of the kind, as the physical
etitution of man, no less than his moral
nature, has mysteries which they cannot
Drob,. Military strategists in planning
campaigns have to show special care in cal.
rulting chaects, and in making due pro-
vision for all the contingencies 'hat may
‘lt:se. General Moltke. it; must be atimi:ted,
tiorgh the prince, of etsategiete, does not
,e2eln te have troubled himself Leech about
he cnence of German defeats wheu he
elaneed the victorioes cornpaian of le7C-7.1,
is he prepared beforehand the ratet•ap of
Sedan for I)rin,..:ng about the surren&T of
the French err: r, aafl the collmpse of the
.:I;lperar Nspi iou.- The calculation of
chances in re:vt to any undertaking is in.
fleenced by ehateeter arid previous exper-
iences in life,. i.:nergotic people, whom
boblnesii v-nd#•!, and those who
are believere . eir own good luck, get
rapidly thane!, their -calealationa, and
gene all avanae• seoner or later to accom-
plish their ainhe