The Stourbridge Observer, Cradley Heath, Halesowen & District Chronicle.
Stourbridge, West Midlands, England, 1883-03-24 00:00:00

THE PROBABLE REVENUE.

We take the following leader on the forthcoming
Budget from the Daily News of Monday
"The Army, Navy, and Civil Service Estimates
having now been published, we are in a position to re-
consider our.previous forecast of the coming Budget,
and to revise or confirm it as the case might be. Of
course our calculations are still to a certain extent
conjectural. We know the cost of the great Supply
Services, as they are called; but it is impossible to be
quite sure of the other items of expenditure, though
we cannot err to any great extent one way or
another. So again in regard to the revenue; until
the Budget statement is actually before us we
cannot feel confident as to the view the Chancellor of
the Exchequer may take of the coming year's pros-
pects. The limits of error, however, are so small that
we may ascertain within a few hundred thousand
pounds the probable surplus which be will have to give
away. Let us begin with the expenditure. The Army,
Navy, and Civil Service are estimated to cost in round
numbers £52,773,000, and half a million is to be
paid to India. We come now, however, to items
which to a certain extent are conjectural,
though, as we have just remarked, the limits of error
are narrow. In the year which is now rapidly draw-
ing to a close the Debt charges, including the interest
on advances made to local authorities and the Con-
solidated Fund charges, are estimated at £31,414,000,
and the charge for the army in India, to be repaid
afterwards by India, but in the first instance to be ad-
vanced out of our own Exchequer, is estimated at a
million and a quarter. Assuming that these two
items—the charge for the Debt and the charge for the
army in India—will be the same next year as this
year, the total expenditure of all kinds will amount to
a trifle under 86 millions. Some items may be intro-
duced which it is impossible to foresee at present.
For example, it may be determined to buy the
Ashburnham manuscripts. Or, again, the year now
drawing to a close may leave a considerable deficit,
and the Chancellor of the Exchequer may decide
to pay off this deficit out of next year's
revenue. We lately gave reasons for believing
that the deficit at the end of this year will be
very small, and we see no grounds for changing our
opinion. Still it is to be remembered that the
Chancellor of the Exchequer said the deficit might
amount to three-quarters of a million, or even more,
and if so, though he may cover it out of the Treasury
balances in the first place, he may decide ultimately
to make it good out of next year's revenue. In case,
then, there should be some unforseen outlay, or the
deficit should be larger than we ourselves expect, the
expenditure next year might be somewhat larger.
But if we add half a million, we think we shall be
giving an outside figure. In other words the expendi-
ture, which will probably not be quite 86 millions, will
almost certainly not exceed 84 millions.
"And now what will be the probable revenue? In
the Budget statement last April Mr. Gladstone esti-
mated the revenue for the year now drawing to a
close at a little under 85 millions, and subsequently,
when he had to provide for the cost of the Egyptian
expedition, adding three-halfpence to the income
tax, he raised the estimate to about 87i millions.
We saw last week, however, that this estimate will
be certainly exceeded, and we showed reasons for
believing that the actual receipts will not fall
very much short of 89 millions. Mr. Childers a fort-
night ago, it is true, said that the revenue might pro-
bably fall short of the expenditure from three-quarters
of a million t 3 a million and a quarter: and as the
expenditure will be about 89 millions, it follows on this
view that the revenue must certainly exceed Mr. Glad-
stone's estimate, and probably may considerably
exceed sq millions. We are ourselves inclined to think
that the receipts will falii very little short of the expen-
diture, and that the Chancellor of the Exchequer's ap-
prehension of a considerable deficit will be agreeably
disappointed. If, then, the receipts this year should
amount to 88i millions and if the Chancellor of
the Exchequer should aim the actual receipts this
year as the probable receipts of next year, we
should have an estimate of, let us say, 88i millions
for the coming year. It is to be borne in mind,

however, that in the estimate for the current year
allowance is made for two windfalls in the form of
repayments from the South African colonies. If
there should be no windfalls at all next year, the
estimate just given will rave to be reduced by a
few hundred thousand pounds. If, on the other hand,
the windfalls should be larger than this year, the
estimate will have to be correspondingly increased.
It is impossible to know, without official information,
whether there will be windfalls or not. but estimating
that the windfalls will be,about equal to those of the
year now rapidly drawing to a close, we should have, as
we have said, about 881 millions as the estimate of
revenue for the coming year. We have seen that the ex-
penditure will probably be about 86 millions, and the
revenue about 88-3/4 millions ' • consequently there will be an
estimated surplus of aboutai minima. But the arrears
of income tax in the new year will be at the rate of
60. in the pound, whereas the arrears collected in
the year now drawing to a close were only at the rate
of sd. in the pound. This will increase next year's
revenue by about half a million, and consequently the
estimated revenue for the coming year must be raised
to about 89 millions. Thus we come, as we came last
week, to the conclusion that there will be a probable
surplus at the disposal of the Chancellor of the Ex-
chequer of about three millions, which may, however,
by various chances be reduced to 21 millions, or even
a little less.

"In the foregoing estimate we have assumed that the
Chancellor of the Exchequer will take the revenue of
the current year as the probable revenue of the coming
year. It may be, of course, that Mr. Childers will
see reason for a less favourable view, but we are
unable to discover any grounds for his doing so. It
is quite true that the old elasticity of the revenue
has not returned, and more particularly that the
drink duties are less productive than they used to
be. But, on the other hand, the revenne continues to
grow et a fairly satisfactory rate. 'l',lcinz Customs
nd Excise together, as they ought to 1, .ken, their
yield is as nearly as possible the same as it was at the
corresponding period of last year, the decrease under
the head of Excise being made up for by an increase
under the head of Customs. And as population and
wealth grow, it is reasonably certain that any
falling off in the drink duties will be compen-
sated for by an augmentation in the duties on
non-alcoholic substances. Apart from the Customs
and Excise, the other principal items of revenue
yield increases, and more particularly it is satisfactory
to find that the income tax continues to give evidence
of fair prosperity throughout the country. It
naturally would have been thought that the agri-
cultural depression would make itself felt in a de-
crease in the income tax, but there certainly is
not any falling off in the income tax • it keeps well
up. If the agricultural yield is less, the yield from
other properties must be larger. So, again, with the
growth of the country in wealth and population,
Stamps, Post Office, and the Telegraph Service con-
tinue to increase, and we see no reason why this
growth should not go on in the coming year. On the
contrary, we should be inclined to expect a moderate
augmentation in the revenue in consequence of the
growth of wealth and population. Probably the
Chancellor of the Exchequer will think it safer
not to anticipate an increase in the revenue. Un-
fortimately, there is as yet no evidence of revived
prosperity among the agricultural classes, while
the extreme wetness of the winter has farther made
worse the prospects of the wheat farmers. More-
over, trade, though fairly good, is not very profitable,
and upon the whole, it would be hardly wise there-
fore to take a sanguine view of the coming year.
But we see no reason, on the other hand, to take a
pessimist view. If, therefore, the Chancellor of the
Exchequer assumes that the yield of the year now
drawing to a close will be the probable yield of the
coming year, he will be fully justified by the condi-
tion of the country."