The Stourbridge Observer, Cradley Heath, Halesowen & District Chronicle.
Stourbridge, West Midlands, England, 1878-04-20 00:00:00

THE BREAKERS AHEAD!

The Correspondent of The Times, writing from Berlin
on April 13, says :

The Russian Cabinet being afraid that England is
going to dispute with them a prize coveted for two
centuries., publish note upon note and article upon
article to prove the harmlessness of their proceed-
ings in the East. In addition to this restless
literary activity, the German Government have
been specially requested to interfere in the interest
of Peace. Austria, too, has been asked again to
settle with the conqueror, and France, it is under-
stood, is invited to mention terms. Yet there is
little chance of immediate improvement in the pre-
sent critical state of things. The German Go-
vernment, in their exertions to maintain the
blessings of peace to the Continent, seem to have
arrived at the conviction that, notwithstanding the
fervent protestations of innocence indulged in at
St. Petersburg, the Russian Government persist in
their refusal to submit the Treaty to the Conference.
In other words, it hap beep aocertaippd that the itussian
Government still decline to make the validity of the
San Stefano arrangements dependent upon the ap-
proval of the pignatory Powers. Now, if these arrange-
ments were such that their approval could be antici-
pated with any degree of probability, the question
whothor approval were needed or not would be a mere
formality, Incapable. of occa4oninu split. Unfortu-
nately, such is not the case. Haying daVised a Bul-
garian dependency with excellent harbours in the
2Egean, almost rendering the question of the Straits a
matter of indifference, Russia is perfectly aware that
s ,me of the mostimportant clauses of the Treaty will
never be confirmed by the proper conclave. In inviting
discussiop, therpforp, she has been parefi.il to ayoid
asking for ratification; if others with opposite interests
to defend, or wishing to uphold the sanctity of
Treaties, regard the Conference as useless, unless the
right of decision is conceded, their conduct is the
answer naturally provoked by Russian proceedings,
The negotiatiops of the last few days have failed to
reconcile conflicting yiews. Bussia oes on assuring
all who care to listen that she has no wish to hurt any
of the Powers, but she is solely intent upon benefiting
the opprc,ssscri Christian of the East. The towers,
with equal pertinacity, deem themselves entitled to
investigate the accuracy of these assurances, and to
arrange matters in such a way that the Russian intent
to hurt nobody be really attained. Is there a way
out of this yioous circle? Can the loaical dilemma
be solved by argument and without ntideSirable re-
course to brute force. Unless one of the disputants
gives in, the case is regarded as hopeless. Up to the
present moment no ray of light seems to illumine the
clouded horizon.

In these circumstances, the probable non-assembling
of the Conferene ia, perhaps!, 4ess ieg'retteci at Berlin
than anywhere else. Alatters being as they are, it is
apprehended that a pacific solution would be hardly
promoted even if the representatives of the Powers
were to meet and talk it all over in detail. Worse
than this, as Berlin has been unluckily selected as the
place 'where the palaver bi to come off, those wh ( are
expected to preside at a probable break-down cannot
be quite placid in view of such a prospect. In paving
the way for the Conference, theref6re, the German
Government, it is believed, are striving not only to
solve the preliminary question as to the necessity of
approval, but also to remove some of the more fqrmid-:
able difficulties Sure to crop up directly that introduc-
tory obstacle has been pushed aside. I leave it to you
to decide whether their undertaking is likely to be
facilitated by the complexity of the task.
But with all these breakers ahead, immediate war is
not anticipated at Berlin—at any rate, no war likely
upon its outbreak to assume a general character or
produce decisive events. It is, on the contrary, con-
sidered that the stagnation preUicted by Prince
Bismarck in one of his recent speeches is
not incompatible with an avowed state of hostility,
and that a campaign such as the one likely to
occur if thingo do not mend need not neeeasarily be
marked by a multiplicity of battles. Prorci opisiions
of the Russian Press transmitted to your columns,
you are aware that a long blockade and a little
fighting every now and then is the contingency most
dreaded by the Russian people and Government.
Let the czar drag ou 4 coupla cf yea, and ever, the
permanent occupation of Bulgaria, wore it attended
with the conversion of Salonica and Kavala into Rus-
sian shipyards and ports, would hardly indemnify the
conqueror for the losses sustained in their acquisition.
Public bankruptcy and private impoverishment would.
stare the Russians in the face and domestic disturb
ances follow in their wake. Like most Slays, the
Russian is so constituted that he can be easily kept
down, but is apt to become ungovernable as soon as
his tether is lenstheneq. If this is the upshot of vic-
tory, what' will he the situation in the event of defeat?
The Russian paper; were perfectly right in depreca-
ting a "stagnant Campaign" as the worst of evils. The
threats that Russia will not put up with an inde-
finite prolongation of the present suspense, but will
strike- hard a 4 own ;1,5 php can, cloeq not mean muith,
for how can she prevent the dread contingency ?
Considering the dilemma on which Russia is im-
paled, we perceive the indiscretion of her statesmen
in falling upon the dilapidated Turk. Unable to re-
sist the temptation presented by the temporary anta-
gonism of the Poniers, they wee blin4 tq the fact that
any one of the Powers was strong enough to prevent
their onward march, and that resistance to them,
though not offered at once, was after all, only a
question of time. Subsequently the confidence
created by success made them go the length of pronral-
gating a peace secretly concluded at the risk of having
to withdraw it publicly. It is true those parties
in the Russian Government and people who
plunged the country into war were shrewd enough
to include defeat as one of the possibilities of the
enterprise and were not deterred by the prospect,
But if Progressists looked upon war as sure to in-
duce Constitutionalism, because sure to reveal a
considerable amount of administrative inability and
corruption' whether attended by victory or defeat,
was it not all the more shortsiuhted nu the prirt of
leading personages to yield? So far as Russia is
concerned, the penalty for what; has occurrred will
have to be paid anyhow. Foreign complications
will arise sooner or later; internal conamotiona,
fostered by the sacrifices entailed, will lead to Parlia,
ni,intary institutions for which the country is hardly
ripe. Why, then, not reduce evil conseqneuce to the
smallest proportions by the speedy conclusion of
peace? Though concessions might have to be made to
the Powers, sufficient advantage could be secured to
invest the Czar with fresh prestige and enable hint to
keep domestic reform within due bounds; but were
war to go on, even victory might usher in exhaustion
and, with it, an sera of discontent and exaggerated in-
novations.