The Stourbridge Observer, Cradley Heath, Halesowen & District Chronicle.
Stourbridge, West Midlands, England, 1871-10-14 00:00:00

A REVIEW OF THE GRAIN TRADE.

Mr. IL Kains Jackson, of 60, Marl:lane, London,
publishes in The Times the following review of the
grain trade and its prospects for the coining winter :
In this year of big stacks and a short wheat yield
the corn trade lots been at the mercy of the latest rumour,
and the birth of speculation may be chronicled. During the
nine weeks that have elapsed since I last a rote, the harvest
In England 11.3 been well secured, the weather having been
exceptionally favourable. Opinions of the yield referring
to what have been lavishly expressed, and the deficiency I
was the first to announce in print has been extended to a
violent degree. Personal observatiobs in the great wheat-
growing counties of Kent, Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk, Cam-
bridge, Lincoln, Hampshire, and Sussex lots been fortified
by the opinions of more than 100 growers in all parts of the
kingdom, and the conclusions of my correspondents agree
with my own in fixing the wheat yield at U. per rent, de-
ficiency, a bulk the renewed German imports should make
good. Comparison is perAstently made of the present Season
With that of 1,67, but in reality the two year; are marked
rather by diVcrlie than by similar results. Quoting from the
In pages harvest report of the Faris,. I find of 1567 : —.The
first and most striking feature noticeable in the face of this
year's harvest report is deficiency—deficiency in wheat, de-
ficiency in barley, deficiency in oats, beans, and peas, awl,
the sooner this position is acknowledged and acted upon,
the sounder must be the grain trade for the next eight
months.'

Such were the words of warning given at the commence-
ment of a seas.m when wheat, home and foreign, mounted
20s. above the present high rates. Moreover, in lee?, the
harvest of Western Eun To was generally bad. Now, wherein
are the differences 1/1 the present year? Allowing the
En,flish wheat crop to be as bail as that lif toil—au,! I think
It ...toted be worse—the barley crop is a good average, and
tli"itt bean. and pea crops are ahoic an average In the
United linard,m. while abroad, as far as I can judge, the
European grain crops, always excepting the wheat crop of
Fran,, ore,,! average quantity and condition. The paral-
lels, therefore, of Ira? and 1071 only exist when ruled by
sp, rulators. The hnd produce of 1607 was wofully otter!,
that of 101 l Is undoubtedly good. The year 1.867 followed a
deficient year ; this season follows is7o, whirl, in this coun-
try, R11,11i21, and America produced good wheat crops.
. • •

"—Referring to my former letter, July 25, I antieipated
the current price of wheat, f,Ss., would decline, anti fr the
following reasuns :—Our grain stocks were accumulating,
after harvest supplies from farmers usually trebled in the
nest month, and I believed imports would come in heavily.
These expectations have been realised in each particular
as regards fanners' supplies and imports, the latter being
the past three months at the rate of over 12 milli.on qrs.
per annum, and lam assured stocks in I:ranary are large
and still on the increase.' As to fanners' deliveries, the
following fact speaks for itself,— that last week seine
tis,0(10103. more English wheat were 'nought to market than
in the abundant year of ISIS, when the pri,es were only
33. under present imotatloLs.

5,71. IS7O. 1559. 1 IFte7,
113.1n0 qrs... 54,1. io qrs... 73,5775 s. s. to2.0o: qrs.
375. 1i... 4th. lii... 495. bd. .. 540. 4,1. fitis. 75.
Notwithstanding the above faits, value has not descended
from rAs. to Sits. average which I expected, the last figures
reprenciiting the top level of ordinary years. Speaking
roughly, English wheat has not changed—then it was ass.,
InrW it 16 :o7a. 3.1. ; but foreign wheat, which early in August
WAS 41:0. is now fn. Other sorts that were I:2a are now
1.45.—a rise of es. to Ss. per qr. ; maize, too—then .255 to
315. is now its. to :Zs., and perhaps this article In its
advance really explains the causes that sustain and advance
value. The first is the want of shipping. since the resources
if America to supply the United K ingili ith any
amount of maize required are undisputed, provided the
means if transit be adequate, which apparently they are
not. The second great cause Is the early dentinal made by
France for seed and other wheat, to satisfy which we have
to forward weekly some 30,u0n quarters, and the purchase
of this bulk, mostly in country markets, creates extravagant
notions which buying treble the bulk of importers would
nut produce. These causes, joined to the ethirts of
speculation in spreading repolls of our own deficient crop,
have thus raised the wheat trade to its present strong posi-
tion. and from which no reaction of importanee altlicars
likely throughout the vicissitudes of winter. IWhile the
above returns of wheat sales in England point to the general
employment of steam power in thrashing out (and the
sanie quickness of labour is shown in America, where the
new crop commences lie shipped as soon as secured), the
farmers of the continent appear unable to market grain to
any extent in the autumn, and thus stores are kept back, even
while price and opportunity attract them nut they are
kept back only for a time, and the merchant navy of tired
Britain will forfeit its repute if vessels be wanting for any
length of time, and probably future prices are now depot-
denj lees upon the existence somewhere of ample supplies,
than the character of tile sinter permitting their ship-
ment. It 13 IP. too late to hook for arrivals that will glut
the English markets : the grain ships on passage are
numerous, and with ordinary weather will firing us ample
stock for our current wants, but ice and contrary winds may
he expected to divert and arrest supplies, and accordingly
value natal fluctuate, and possibly the crises of the winter
season will temp-A:ally favour sellers to the extent of Si.
or even loa, a movoneht that can but enlarge what is
already a dangerous petition, by carrying value far beyond
safe limits, awl by attracting excessive supplies which, on
arrival in Nprilla or summer, may oceasie,u the same ruinous
collapse of prices that marked Slay, Pies The term exces-
sive smiplies appears ilit of place thid year, when the total
deficiencies of France and England may strain' but not over-
tax the exporting resources of the world, hut too little
corn in midwinter met too much at midsummer, although
only the required quantity in the aggregate, makes the
terns temporarily appropriate. Indeed i there s Ind little
If any doubt that the grain stocks of the world are this
year fully equal to the worn Is wants scarcity is not feared,
and If at any period dearness and scanty supplies occur they
will be only for a short time, and as soon as the hindrances
and accidents of the season fall away of their own weakness,
value, with sufficiency of breadstuffs, will sink to a moderate
level, such as in a year when the aggregate produce is plenti-
ful may be expected. At the tune of writing this foreign
markets arc quiet. America appears losing faith in her
own advance., prices in New York giving way la. to 2s. per
qr, on wheat unit maize, and, as far as I can judge, the
it WI is general among English merchants and ltreek im-
porters that prices should be kept where they are, as either
.b cline or advance would, almost equally, create future
I. —sea ; and this moderation of view is strengthened by the
sent action of the money as well as that of the corn
ioarket.