The Stourbridge Observer, Cradley Heath, Halesowen & District Chronicle.
Stourbridge, West Midlands, England, 1871-03-18 00:00:00

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THE COMING BUDGET.

The particulars of the following are still dubious
(sass the Economist), but it is evident that the Budget
which Mr. Lowe must soon give up will be a very
unpleasant one. This is not, indeed, at all Mr.
Lowe's fault. His estimates of the revenue last year
were moderate and cautious, and will be more than
borne out by the event. The reason is. that owing to
the Increase of the Army and Navy Estimates, he
will have to provide for a much larger sum this year
thEtn last, and for that purpose he will need serious ad-
ditional taxation. As to the expenditure of next year,
as we have the Army and Navy Estimates, an sip.
proximate estimate not very far from the mark can be
formed. We do not, indeed, know the exact new sum
which will be wanted, but we believe that the sum
stated below is an under and not an over estimate, and
that more and not less will probably be wanted. The
account of the expenditure, we anticipate, will stand
seedy thus :—lnterest of debt, &c., (as in last
year's Budget), 06,840,000 ; Consolidated Fund
charges (as in last year's Budget), £1,820,000 ,• Army
Estimates, £15,852,000; minimum estimate for abolition
of purchase, £858,000; Navy Estimates, £9,756,000;

Civil service and Revenue departments (es in last years
Budget), £16,417,000, addition to civil eerviee estimates
for education, £600000; total, 1.72,143.000. Now, as
in April last. Mr Lowe only provided for an expen-
diture of £67,486 000, it Is plain that the increase is
very great. As to the state of the revenue, the cam Is
much pleasanter. Mr. Lowe estimated last year for a
revenue of £67,631,000. But the result will probably
far exceed it. We cannot j Age of all the items on
account of the irregularities of collection, but ti take
the two most impart set —the Customs and the Excise—
we
fled that about 14 million is the excess over the
Budget estimate already gained. The estimate for the
Excise was 4:91,660,001J, or about £lOO.OOO less than the
actual yield of last year; but the yield up to the end
of last week compares as follows with the correspond-
ing period of lee year :—Yield of Excise, from April
1, 1870, to March 4, 1871, £20201 000 ; ditto for cur.
responding period of last year, £l9 369 000 ;—increase
over estimate, £813,000. As r-ganis the Customs,
which come in with more regularity than he Excise,
we may compare the actual yield to date with the pro-
portionate period of the Budget estimate, viz. a—
Actual yield of Gust:tins to date, £lB 564,000; propor-
tion of estimate to date, £17.925,000 iucreaee over
estimate, £639,000. The' e two item, of increase
amount to ,ether to £1,482,000, which is very satis-
factory, and if our expenditure had not been increased
would have been ground for expecting a Lar stir.
plus. The usual practice of the Revenue departments
is to base their estimate of the coming year on the
actual ) ield of the ',vet one. They presume, in the
absence of exceptional events, that the next year will
yit 11 much the same. They do not speculate sanguinely
on improvement ; they properly make such an estimate
as will be realised if the country Is not particularly
prosperous, and if only it retains the happinese to
which it has advanced. Supposing the estimate the
year to be made on the some principle, the result
will be something like this - Probable expenditure,
£72,200,000 • probable revenue from preeent siverces of
taxation, £69,200,000; consequent deficit, £3,000,000
a very serious sum, and plainly necessitating large ad-
ditional taxation.