The Stourbridge Observer, Cradley Heath, Halesowen & District Chronicle.
Stourbridge, West Midlands, England, 1879-04-05 00:00:00

THE REVENUE RETURNS.

The Revenue Returns which were issued on Monday night
show that during the past twelve months the gross produce
of the revenue has been £&3,115,972, against £79,783,292 in
the previous year. Every item shows an increase except
Excise and Stamps, an which there has been a loss of
£360,000, of which £84,000 belongs to the Excise. There has
been a net increase in the revenue of £3,322.637, of which
£2,890,000 is from property and income tax, and £317,000
from Customs reoeipts:—The Times has the following leader
on the Returns

The Revenue Returns for the last quarter of the
financial year, disclose the whole situation with which
the Chancellor of the Exchequer will have to deal in
framing the Budget for 1879-80. The anticipations
even of the most hopeful have for a long time past
been placed at a very moderate level, and Sir Stafford
Northcote himself five weeks ago announced a possible
falling-off in the receipts as compared with the
estimates of last year's Budget to the amount of nearly
a million. The returns for the whole year, though not
quite coming up to the results upon which the Chan-
cellor of the Exchequer reckoned in April last, showed a
much leas serious failure in the aggregate revenue
than had been recently expected. The total income
which Sir Stafford Northcote had estimated for the
year was £83,230,000, and the actual receipts
amounted to £83,115,972. The deficiency is not
considerable. enough to make any change in the
basis of Sir Stafford Northcote's calculations
necessary. If, indeed, there had been a falling-off
of a million, or even hall a million, it would
doubtless have been necessary to take lower esti-
mates for the year on which we are entering, and
to provide in consequence for a larger deficit. But
the fractional loss of £115,000 on an aggregate income
of more than eighty-three millions is significant only
as a warning that the elasticity of the revenue is not
at present to be trusted. It is true that an examina-
tion of the particular items of receipt produces a some-
what less favourable impression. The forecasts of
the Chancellor of the Exchequer have been disap-
pointed in some respects, and more than fulfilled in
others; but the former class of changes are, perhaps,
of greater importance than the latter. The failure of
the Customs revenue to home up to Sir Stafford
Northcote's most temperate expectations, and the con-
current decline in the receipts from Excise and
Stamps, seem to indicate an abatement in the general
Consuming and spending power of the country, which
may, indeed, be only a temporary consequence of
alternating excitement and depression in business, but
which also may be a symptom of more permanent
injury.
The Customs revenue, augmented by the additional
tobacco duty, was put down by the Chancellor of the
Exchequer twelve months ago at £20,500,000. The
actual receipts are only £20,316,000. The deficiency
is not very large, but it is importantbecause it appears
to show that one of the expedients to which Sir Stafford
Northcote resorted last year will not be again avail.
able. It has been for some time suspected that the
augmentation of the tobacco duty was not bringing
in anything like the sum—three-quartem of a million
—upon which Sir Stafford Northcote had counted,
and no doubt this view is confirmed by the returns
we publish. But where was the rcror in the
original calculation? Has the tobacee duty been
already raised to the point at which ,consumption is
lessened or to that at which smuggling begins? In
either case it will not be expedient to attempt for the
present a further increase. Turning to the receipts
from Excise, we find still less comfort. Last year the
estimate was £27,600,000; but the receipts were only
£27,400,000, or £64,000 less than the actual income
from this source in 1877-8, and this in spite of the
increase of the dog tax. Stamps exhibit a
much more serious falling off. Last year's Budget
estimated the revenue from this source at
£10,930,000, or very close upon the amount
received in 1877-78 ; but the returns now complete
show that no more than £10,670,000 has been contri-
buted under this head, or £260,000 less than the
estimate. The aggregate falling-off in the return
from these three principarsources of revenue must,
no doubt, be taken into account by the Chancellor
of the Exchequer in arranging this year's finan-
cial equilibrium; but the losses in these directions
are very nearly outweighed by the gains upon
other and equally important items. The Land
Tax and House Duty, which, it was estimated,
would produce £2,630,u00, have produced £2,720,4)00.
The Income-tax, which was estimated to produce
£8,570,000, has produced £8,710,000. The Post-Office
and Telegraph Service revenue has exceeded the
estimates by £60,000. The amount of interest on
advances for local works is larger than was foreseen by
over £40,000. A very considerable item of increase
appears under the head of "Miscellaneous" revenue,
which was estimated at £4,000,000, but has, in fact,
produced £4,223,000. g'he net result of the balance
struck between profit and loss is that the Chancellor
of the Exchequer has obtained almost the income he
expected, but not in the most secure or satisfactory
manner.
It is possible that the Customs revenue would have
shown a larger decrease but for the uneasy feeling
which has lately prevailed in commercial circles. If
the Chancellor of the Exchequer's unfavourable anti-
cipations had been realized, the increase Of the tea
diity, and probably of other duties upon articles of
common consumption, could hardly have been avoided.
When, therefore, the weekly returns of the revenue
showed a declining tendency and the Budget was
at hand, merchants hastened at the last moment
to get goods out of bond, and so temporarily
augmented the Customs receipts. The same
thing happened at the beginning of the winter
Session, when there was a rumour that Sir
Stafford Northcote would ask Parliament for an im-
mediate increase of duties to meet the charges of the
Afghan war. But every spasmodic movement of this
kind is followed by a reaction, and it is possible the
Customs may not be even doing as well as the returns
seem to chow'. The decline of the revenue from
Stamps, though painfully significant as marking the
continuance of the commercial depression, is not pro-
gressive. Since New Year's Day, not only has no more
ground been lost, but even some has been regained.
Nevertheless, the Chancellor of the Exchequer will
hardly be justified in looking to an increase of the Stamp
duties any more than to an increase of the Customs
duties as an easy method of getting a larger revenue.
The recent diminution of the expenditure and the
careful controlof the estimates may possibly relieve Sir
"Stafford Northcote from the unpleasant necessity of
making any extraordinary demands upon the British
tax-payer. He-has obtained a revenue of more than
eighty-three millions in 1878-79, a year of exceptional
embarrassments and disasters. Although there
are Berne discouraging characteristics in the
present Rettitns, it is not unreasonable to antici-
pate that in the year upon which we are entering
the receipts will be at least as large. But if
there be no ground for apprehending a decrease of in-
come, and if the expenditure can be kept within the
limits at present fixed, there will be a surplus—includ-
ing the arrears of this year's income-tax —which will
approach three millions. With this the Chancellor of
the Exchequer can deal, either for the reduction of
existing liabilities or for meeting unexpeoted demands.
This is less than we were justified in hoping for some
time ago, but more than Sir Stafford Northcote looked
for at the end of February last. It must be remembered,
however, that the actual deficit for 1878-79, including
the vote of credit for the Zulu war, amounted to
upwards of two millions and a half, and that the
, accumulated deficit of the past two years is more than
I double that sum. Whether the surplus upon the
' existing sources of revenue will be considered sufficient
for the ultimate extinction of this accumulated deficit
or whether the process will be hastened by the imposi-
tion of new taxation, is the problem which Sir Stafford
Northcote's Budget speech will presently solve.