The Stourbridge Observer, Cradley Heath, Halesowen & District Chronicle.
Stourbridge, West Midlands, England, 1876-09-23 00:00:00

THE WHEAT SUPPLY,

James Caird has sent a long and interesting letter to
the Times on the harvest products in various parts of th 3
7orld. The butlect-matter of the letter will be gleaned
'torn the followingleader which The Times has upon it :
,The Wheat Crop this year is the conclusion of a
,"
;, tory full of alarms. and surprises. Mr. Caird tells
" very Pleasantly in all its bearings and consequences,
atd reminds us, by the contrast, of the mysterious and
tine with whichthe staff of life was always dirs.
-"'4Bcl as late as thirty years ago. In some respects the
Present state of things far surpasses the direst pre-
of that day. We are dependent upon foreigners
la an extent never then imagined. While the
average consumption is about 23 million quarters, or,
41 the Customs Returns state it, 100 million cwts.,
during the last harvest year we have imported—•
eeaPPily, it seems, somewhat in excess of our wants—
cwts , or not far from two•thirds of our
aawhole Consumption. Half of this came from the
.united Stater, and so much of our wheat supply
`,.,711e2ad5, therefore, not only on the goodwill
that country, but still more immediately on her
le,.°reniercial state, which is very variable. The profit
r,..1•4a11 has to be nicely calculated, and in Mr. Caird's
eitltdon the prices which have lately prevailed yield
,tle or no profit. Such a fact is slowly appreciated,
put when the American farmers have once acted upon
st and Stopped euppliee, it takes time to reverse that
Movement and meet a rieing demand. Five per cent.
of our wheat imports come from British India—where
'we have lately had to feed a famished population. A.
Rood deal comes from Turkey and Egypt, which Mr.
Caird, observes, will have to send us wheat because
they both want money and can no longer get it by
Simply borrowing. He euggeets, however, that in pre,
sent circumstances Turkey cannot be depended on for
any considerable supplies. France is too much in our
own condition to be sure of sparing us wheat when
We happen. to want it; in fact, if she has not
to compete with Us in the open market, that is about
`lB much as can now be expected. She has had a poor
Par vest of other grain and produce, and may want all
her own wheat and more. The wheat crop of Canada
ni much lower than usual. Here, then, is the very
atate of things .which a generation ago was prophesied
as the last page of our national decline and fall. When
all the world, including our jealous rivals, found us
dependent on them for more than half our daily
bread, they had only to put their heads together and
destroy the proud nation that had no oppressed or
insulted them. The consummation has come. It
finds us year by year growing less wheat, and the
foreigner growing, if not absolutely more, at least
,taore than pays him. It finds the prices still so
chiefly from the stock in hand, that Mr. Caird
thinks it his duty, and a piece of kindness too, to
recommend the consumers to expect higher prices. He
tells the British public they are not paying enough for
their bread. They can afford to pay more. Tney had
better pay more now, if only to encourage the foreign
Wheat growers all over the world. They have to corn-
Pete at great odds. The expenses of carriage at such
,distances, by sea and land, exceed the disadvantage of
enigh rents suffered by the British farmer. As it
°aPpens, and as he explains, the British censumer has
"very nearly been in the predicament of having to pay
What he would think famine prices.
rfere is what might have happened, and what indeed
alanY expected only a few months ago. We had a long
rd severe Winter, and then a long and rainy Spring.
hntlume sowing there was none in many districts, little
i
others. The Spring sowing was late. All the autho-
titles and all the precedents agree that after bad and
ttte Rowing there cannot be an abundant harvest, and
Oro has not been an abundant harvest. But besides
nuts were two questions, which might be decided against
verY unfavourably. There might be an ungenial
'mor, and the wheat might not ripen • and there
alight be a bad and late harvest time, and the wheat
ht not be well got in. Had both these very pore-
contingencies come to pass, it would Indeed have
I:Lane ill with us, for our own modest contribution
'"ue national commissariat would been short and bad.
r at the very contrary happened to an extent not
:membered by the living generation. The Summer
r°ved most beneficially though uncomfortable hot. In
a4et. We had more than those forty successive days of
b:t weather which are said to make the difference
tYreen a tropical and a temperate c'imafe. The bar-
Which people expected to be a fortnight later
se-4 usual, proved a fortnight earlier, and all in fine
aea,nY weather with just a shower or two to give the
e °ae,l'a a little start and make the grass green again.
ee,"4l Britannia have ruled the skies as she claims to
rain the waves, she could not have ordered sun and
more to her convenience. The result is a crop
indeed, in quantity, but scarcely equalled
ea,4,tlaat,Y. A month ago the reports from the
seae districts gave about 48 per cent.
emtage "crop, 12 per cent. above average,
40 below. But as threshing proceeds the
Ws'', is found not to bear out those figures. Thin crops
been the rule, as we should think anybody's own
lb ervation would tell him. Heavy crops hate been
Lexoeption, and a very rare exception we should
etiPre The most productive soils are those which
;,,a'ared most by the late winter and early stems. So,
h'sea_nest a great falling off in quantity the agriculturist
aoas' lie set the quality, and good wheat can always
ell''Mand a price. Mr. Caird is evidently of opinion
,oat tlae farmer need not be in too great a hurry to die-
leeoft his crop, inasmuch as he may fairly expect a
te'r Price for it before long. The state of the mar-
oseee 4,11 over the country justifies this confisience, and
1),".1t not for the unfortunate fact that Michaelmas
ng not a fortnight off, and that very few farmers
ee eP their heads well above water, we should hope to
lallYeni availing themselves of a rising market, and
ing ou awhile
Are]. *
iehe ; and, like a susceptible and delicate test of atmo3-
yaa;'o changes shows most the working of this unusual
leis • She hles been turning her cultivated land
bto°, grass for some time past, and depends on live
aJ4, green crops and hay, on potatoes, and on barley
de' oats rather than wheat. All the produce that she
bat:: ads on fetches at present good prices, though her
aeL,eroP, now said to be worth six guineas a ton, is
pr'4',Y as short as the English. She ought to be very
ae°3Poroll3, Mr. Caird says. In fact, her labourers
ecei_Y get nearly 1113 good wages as our own, and the tide of
Pe Cation has begun to turn. Of course, this pros-
depends on our own, for without a good roar-
wa4 ature herself labours in vain and sees her. bounty
to lite away. In holding up Leland so consiacuously
ea. c'llv notice we presume Mr. Caird has some
laii7et besides agricultural illustration. Perhaps he
a, to direct the attention of the capitalist to a
eetattY he has often visited and explored, and in
tel.4;tl he may be said to have so much faith. Cele
iee'elY, the island offers many features which have at
8,74 t the charm of novelty. There is hardly a choice
IV hi, England or a mile of its coast that is not over-
tourists or holiday folks. But there lies
u!etelaed for hundreds of miles, facing the Atlantic,
'•''s Wildest, qualm test, and greenest mixture of earth,
aljet, Water, and rock that the world can show—not
proheut soil here and there improvable by capital and
ta,Per skill. People cannot live on beauty, it is
Qe,,, but there are portions of Ireland as
_as any of this country. One other point
' "urt thinks it worth while to 'single out for special

notice. Why do we not make more use of Indian
corn? he asks, as did Mr. Cobbett, It costs one-third
less per pound than oats, and for the feeding of stock
is cheaper than any kind of corn that cbn be produced
in this country. It appears, however, that our agri-
culturists are already very sensible of the value of this
grain, which May be almost said to owe its introduction
for general purposes to the Potato Famine. The
imports for some months have been immense, and are
expected to continue large.

The following are extracts from Mr. Caird's letter :
"With no quarter whence we can look for increased sup-
plier, and with some prospect of a diminution of those from
America, it is satiefactory to know that we begin with a large
stock from the surplus of last year's imports, which have
been unprecedentedly great, and c,nsiderably beyond our
immediate wants. The very fine quality of the wheat of all
ceuntTles, our own included, warrants an increase of price.
Toe wheat is really worth more money to the miller, and, as
the coat of producaon, both at home and abroad, has very
appreciably increased, a moderate rise of price seems desirable
to prevent further diminution in the area cultivated. From
the highest point in the last ten years that has decreased 16
per cent. in Great Britain, and more than 50 per cent. in
Ireland. The same cause will be, also, though not, perhaps,
so quickly operative In Western America and Southern
Russia, which are weighted with the charges and cost of
transport to this country, amounting on the produce of an
acre, to more than the rent of our land. The stimulus to
increased cultivation given by four years of high prices was
accompanied in these countries by increased coat of labour
and more lavish expenditure, which, at the prices of the last
two crops, must have made wheat•growing a losing business,
and will certainly for a time discourage increased production.
It may be that we may still have a low•priced year to pass
through before production in these remote quarters is
thereby much reduced. But, considering the very
great degree in which, by a natural change of husbandry in
this country, we have become dependent on foreign wheat,
and the rapid and great rise in price to which we should be
exposed by an unexpected and considerable diminution in
the area of foreign growth, I should be glad to see, and think
we may before long expect, such tt moderate increase on the
low price of the last two years as would leave some profit to
both home and foreign grower.

" With regard to the other crops of the farm, they are all
below average, oats especially. Potatoes are fine in quality,
but deficient in quantity. Ilay was got in fine condition, but
the dry and cold May was very unfavourable, and the crop
on the whole is a deficient one. Even in Ireland, where the
cultivated land is being rapidly turned into grass, the hay
crop is short, and was selling last week at Ze es. a tan. In
that country the potato crop is very good, and though some-
what short in breadth, the fine quality will make up in a great
degree for that diminution. Ireland ought to be very pros-
perous. Nine-tenths of her corn are oats and barley, which
have brought a high price during all the last ten years, her
live-stock and green crops and hay are all fetching high
prices, and the climate and soil are both favourable to rapid
conversion from arable to pasture. It is satisfactory to know
that the value of labour in that country bas risen mere nearly
to the level of this, and that the tide of emigration has at
last begun to turn."
Mr. Caird thus concludes his letter :

In the Economical Section of the British Association last
week the Chairman made some depreciatory observations
regarding their value as at present collected, and another
member complained of the lateness of their publication. It
would certainly be a great improvement if the abstract could
be got out earlier, say as early as that of Ireland, in the end
of July, and it may be hoped that this may yet be accom-
plished. But the great value of the Returns is best known to
those who study them most carefully. The variations they
show in the extent of the different crops from year to year,
and in the ever changing numbers of the various live stock,
ice m the only trustworthy guide we potsess in estimating the
wants to be provided for by a population now dependent on
foreign imports for more than one half their food. Without
them we should bs quite in the dark, by them we discover the
considerable damages which occur from year to year, and in,
periods of years the decrease of wheat, the increase of bar-
ley, the lesser dependence of Ireland on potatoes, the
diminution of bare fallow in both countries, the increasing
substitution of roangold for swedes in the South, and the
rate of conversion from arable to pasture. If an early know-
ledge of deficiency in our own crops enables us to provide for
It in good time, cud without panic, the public gain is enor-
mous compared with the small cost incurred in collecting the
Returns, which, besides this main feature of their value, are
otherwise extremely instructive."