The Stourbridge Observer, Cradley Heath, Halesowen & District Chronicle.
Stourbridge, West Midlands, England, 1885-11-21 00:00:00

KR, GOMM ON FIGURES.

Mr. Goschen addressed a meeting in Edinburgh the
other evening, under the auspices of the Institute of
Bankers in Scotland, upon the subject, "Is it true
that figures will prove anything? or the use and
abuse of statistics.' The right hon. gentleman said
that figures would prove anything if loosely handled
and blindly accepted. There were many who offended
in the direction of a loose and reckless method of
dealing with figures. He had never yet seen an
electioneering table of statistics that could possibly be
accepted by impartial men as giving a correct account
of the figures it contained. Stetistics were extremely
dangerous in the hands of anybody who did not
know how to employ them, and he proposed to indi-
cate the rules which would indicate how they should
steer clear of the pitfalls which followed their use.
The first rule was that they should be suspicious of
totals, analyse them, endeavour to compare like with
like, see how the figures were produced and what
were the results of exceptional circumstances, and
finally examine the figures on both sides of the
theory with the same diligence, impartiality, and
honesty. A statistician should not be content to deal
only with figures in a way to prove his case, but he
should analyse, analyse, analyse, if he did not wish
to degrade a great pursuit, and he should examine
figures on both sides in order to find out their
truth and meaning. With regard to the
abuse of statistics, he wished to make a few
observations on the depression of trade, for there
was no question in which there was a greater abuse
in the employment of imperfect methods. Now,
quantity was of as great importance in that matter
as value, and if they compared the imports and
exports of the present time with those of 15 years
ago, they pointed to a depression of trade simply
because the sterling value was less. They ignored one
of the fundamental factors of the problem, and misled
both themselves and those whom they were addrksi.s-
ing. One of the broadest ideas in connection with the
depression in trade was that we were so powerful, and
had such an hereditary privilege to be the first in
every respect in supplying all the markets of the
world, that it was extremely hard for us to be under-
sold anywhere. It was not enough to put forward
that claim, but it was necessary, by stupendous exer-
tions on the part of all classes, by improved technical
education, by improvements in every direction, to
maintain our position. But they must not expect
impossibilities, nor must they be unduly alarmed or
frightened by phenomena which were perfectly in-
telligible and natural. If, as was stated, it was
a fact that in many respects our Colonies and India
were producing and manufacturing articles with
which we formerly supplied them, they must not
come to the conclusion that there was something
radically wrong in their tradc, which should be
dealt with by artificial means. It was the duty of
statisticians to inform the country as to some of the
causes of the present depression of trade, and accord-
ing to the truth and breadth of their analysis and its
honesty they would enable the people to realise
whether they ought to have recourse to certain
measures now put forward. Where they found the
Colonies and India supplying themselves with
articles formerly obtained from the Mother Country
they must seek to supply them with other articles.
They must look to expanding markets, and must not
fret or fume under these circumstances, as if they
were unnatural or abnornal. (Cheers.) Dealing
next with the currency question, the right hon.
gentleman pointed out that,while gold and silver had
scarcely moved, though largely supplemented by.in-
struments of credit such as the cheque, yet the
amount of produce which they moved had so enor-
mously increased that it would be perfectly natural,
if they were any relation in the proportion between
the aggregate amount of gold and silver and the
price of commodities, that the prices of commodities
must be at a much lower point than they were 35
years ago. It was said that silver was worth 20 per
cent. less than some time since, and it had been sug-
gested that if by certain legislative arrangements its
value could be raised, no harm would be done; but
he would point out that there was no greater statis-
tical fallacy, for a change in the price would
materially affect all existing contracts with India.
(Hear, hear.) Mr. Goschen next pointed out how
exceptional political circumstances in 1871 and 1881
on the continent caused a great change in our trade,
and the ignoring of which by politicians led to very
misleading statements, and he suggested that the
managers of the institute would do well to encourage
their students by letting them examine the political
statistics of various parties and test their accuracy.
Let him not be misunderstood. Statistics honestly,
properly, and righteously used were of the greatest
possible interest and importance. As a physican told
the state of his patient by the beating of his pulse,
so the investigator in social science might by statistics
arrive at many correct and important conclusions
with regard to the situation of the country at large.
(Cheers.)