Among the outcomes examined , the highest absolute risk increase was for heart failure .
Associations between atrial fibrillation and included outcomes were broadly consistent across subgroups and in sensitivity analyses .
Atrial fibrillation is associated with an increased risk of death and an increased risk of cardiovascular and renal disease .
OBJECTIVE To quantify the association between  atrial fibrillation and cardiovascular disease , renal disease , and death .
Derivation and validation of QStroke score for predicting risk of ischaemic stroke in primary care and comparison with other risk scores: a prospective open cohort study
Objective To develop and vali date a risk algorithm ( QStroke ) to estimate risk of stroke or transient ischaemic attack in patients without prior stroke or transient ischaemic attack at baseline ; to compare ( a ) QStroke with CHADS2 and CHA2DS2VASc scores in patients with atrial fibrillation and ( b ) the performance of QStroke with the Framingham stroke score in the full population free of stroke or transient ischaemic attack . Design Prospect i ve open cohort study using routinely collected data from general practice during the study period 1 January 1998 to 1 August 2012 . Setting 451 general practice s in Engl and and Wales contributing to the national Q Research data base to develop the algorithm and 225 different Q Research practice s to vali date the algorithm . Participants 3.5 million patients aged 25 - 84 years with 24.8 million person years in the derivation cohort who experienced 77 578 stroke events . For the validation cohort , we identified 1.9 million patients aged 25 - 84 years with 12.7 million person years who experienced 38 404 stroke events . We excluded patients with a prior diagnosis of stroke or transient ischaemic attack and those prescribed oral anticoagulants at study entry . Main outcome measures Incident diagnosis of stroke or transient ischaemic attack recorded in general practice records or linked death certificates during follow-up . Risk factors Self assigned ethnicity , age , sex , smoking status , systolic blood pressure , ratio of total serum cholesterol to high density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations , body mass index , family history of coronary heart disease in first degree relative under 60 years , Townsend deprivation score , treated hypertension , type 1 diabetes , type 2 diabetes , renal disease , rheumatoid arthritis , coronary heart disease , congestive cardiac failure , valvular heart disease , and atrial fibrillation Results The QStroke algorithm explained 57 % of the variation in women and 55 % in men without a prior stroke . The D statistic for QStroke was 2.4 in women and 2.3 in men . QStroke had improved performance on all measures of discrimination and calibration compared with the Framingham score in patients without a prior stroke . Among patients with atrial fibrillation , levels of discrimination were lower , but QStroke had some improved performance on all measures of discrimination compared with CHADS2 and CHA2DS2VASc . Conclusion QStroke provides a valid measure of absolute stroke risk in the general population of patients free of stroke or transient ischaemic attack as shown by its performance in a separate validation cohort . QStroke also shows some improvement on current risk scoring methods , CHADS2 and CHA2DS2VASc , for the subset of patients with atrial fibrillation for whom anticoagulation may be required . Further research is needed to evaluate the cost effectiveness of using these algorithms in primary care
Among the outcomes examined , the highest absolute risk increase was for heart failure .
Associations between atrial fibrillation and included outcomes were broadly consistent across subgroups and in sensitivity analyses .
Atrial fibrillation is associated with an increased risk of death and an increased risk of cardiovascular and renal disease .
OBJECTIVE To quantify the association between  atrial fibrillation and cardiovascular disease , renal disease , and death .