If we assume that screening reduces breast cancer mortality by 15% and that overdiagnosis and overtreatment is at 30%, it means that for every 2000 women invited for screening throughout 10 years, one will avoid dying of breast cancer and 10 healthy women, who would not have been diagnosed if there had not been screening, will be treated unnecessarily. Furthermore, more than 200 women will experience important psychological distress including anxiety and uncertainty for years because of false positive findings. To help ensure that the women are fully informed before they decide whether or not to attend screening, we have written an evidence-based leaflet for lay people that is available in several languages on www.cochrane.dk. Because of substantial advances in treatment and greater breast cancer awareness since the trials were carried out, it is likely that the absolute effect of screening today is smaller than in the trials. Recent observational studies show more overdiagnosis than in the trials and very little or no reduction in the incidence of advanced cancers with screening.
Canadian National Breast Screening Study: 2. Breast cancer detection and death rates among women aged 50 to 59 years.
To evaluate the efficacy of annual mammography over and above annual physical examination of the breasts and the teaching of breast self-examination among women aged 50 to 59 on entry.
                Individually randomized controlled trial.
                Fifteen urban centres in Canada with expertise in the diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer.
                Women with no history of breast cancer and no mammography in the previous 12 months were randomly assigned to undergo either annual mammography and physical examination (MP group) or annual physical examination only (PO group). The 39,405 women enrolled from January 1980 through March 1985 were followed for a mean of 8.3 years.
                Derived from the participants by initial and annual self-administered questionnaires, from the screening examinations, from the patients' physicians, from the provincial cancer registries and by record linkage to the Canadian National Mortality Data Base. Expert panels evaluated histologic and death data.
                Rates of referral from screening, rates of detection of breast cancer from screening and from community care, nodal status, tumour size and rates of death from all causes and from breast cancer.
                Over 85% of the women in each group attended the screening sessions after screen 1. The characteristics of the women in the two groups were similar. Compared with the Canadian population the participants were more likely to be married, have fewer children, have more education, be in a professional occupation, smoke less and have been born in North America. The rate of screen-detected breast cancer on first examination was 7.20 per 1000 in the MP group and 3.45 per 1000 in the PO group, more node-positive tumours were found in the MP group than in the PO group. At subsequent screens the detection rates were a little less than half the rates at screen 1. During years 2 through 5 the ratios of observed to expected cases of invasive breast cancer were 1.28 in the MP group and 1.18 in the PO group. Of the women with invasive breast cancer through to 7 years, 217 in the MP group and 184 in the PO group had no node involvement, 66 and 56 had one to three nodes involved, 32 and 34 had four or more nodes involved, and 55 and 46 had an unknown nodal status. There were 38 deaths from breast cancer in the MP group and 39 in the PO group. The ratio of the proportions of death from breast cancer in the MP group compared with those in the UC group was 0.97 (95% confidence interval 0.62 to 1.52). The survival rates were similar in the two groups. Women whose cancer had been detected by mammography alone had the highest survival rate.
                The study was internally valid, and there was no evidence of randomization bias. Screening with yearly mammography in addition to physical examination of the breasts detected considerably more node-negative, small tumours than screening with physical examination alone, but it had no impact on the rate of death from breast cancer up to 7 years' follow-up from entry.