If we assume that screening reduces breast cancer mortality by 15% and that overdiagnosis and overtreatment is at 30%, it means that for every 2000 women invited for screening throughout 10 years, one will avoid dying of breast cancer and 10 healthy women, who would not have been diagnosed if there had not been screening, will be treated unnecessarily. Furthermore, more than 200 women will experience important psychological distress including anxiety and uncertainty for years because of false positive findings. To help ensure that the women are fully informed before they decide whether or not to attend screening, we have written an evidence-based leaflet for lay people that is available in several languages on www.cochrane.dk. Because of substantial advances in treatment and greater breast cancer awareness since the trials were carried out, it is likely that the absolute effect of screening today is smaller than in the trials. Recent observational studies show more overdiagnosis than in the trials and very little or no reduction in the incidence of advanced cancers with screening.
Randomisation by cluster and the problem of social class bias.
For randomised population trials the unit of randomisation is normally the individual person. In some situations, however, investigators take other groups as basic unit and one such design is cluster randomisation. Considerable attention has been given to this design recently in statistical and epidemiological literature. The Edinburgh randomised trial of breast cancer screening is an example which takes general practices as clusters of patients. The experience of this trial is reported here. Mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease and lung cancer over the first 5 year period of follow up are examined. We found that spurious mortality differences were present in the analyses, which do not allow for socio-economic status. From examination of methods of adjusting for this, we conclude that allowance can be made at the analysis stage, and it is intended that this approach will be adopted when breast cancer mortality is analysed in the Edinburgh trial. Nevertheless, we recommend that for future studies with outcome related to socio-economic status, randomisations which use this design be stratified by socio-economic criteria where this is feasible.