Longitudinal studies consistently suggest that exposure to tobacco advertising and promotion is associated with the likelihood that adolescents will start to smoke. Based on the strength and specificity of this association, evidence of a dose-response relationship, the consistency of findings across numerous observational studies, temporality of exposure and smoking behaviours observed, as well as the theoretical plausibility regarding the impact of advertising, we conclude that tobacco advertising and promotion increases the likelihood that adolescents will start to smoke.
Cigarette advertising and teen smoking initiation.
To test the specificity of the association between cigarette advertising and adolescent smoking initiation.
                A longitudinal survey of 2102 adolescents, aged 10 to 17 years at baseline, who never smoked was conducted by using masked images of 6 cigarette advertisements and 8 other commercial products with all brand information digitally removed. The exposure variable was a combination of contact frequency and cued recall of brands for cigarette and other advertisements. Multilevel mixed-effects Poisson regressions were used to assess smoking initiation 9 months after the baseline assessment as a function of cigarette-advertisement exposure, other advertisement exposure, and baseline covariates.
                Thirteen percent (n = 277) of students initiated smoking during the observation period. Although the incidence of trying smoking was associated with increased exposure to cigarette advertisements (10% in the low, 12% in the medium, and 19% in the high cigarette-advertisement exposure tertile initiated smoking), exposure to other advertisements did not predict smoking initiation. Compared with low exposure to cigarette advertisements, high exposure remained a significant predictor of adolescent smoking initiation after controlling for baseline covariates (adjusted relative risk: 1.46 [95% confidence interval: 1.08-1.97]; P < .05).
                Our results support the notion of a content-related effect of cigarette advertisements and underlines the specificity of the relationship between tobacco marketing and teen smoking; exposure to cigarette advertisements, but not other advertisements, is associated with smoking initiation.