CBR Quarterly Inflation Review - Q2 2011
Central bank: cbr | Type: quarterly_review | Date: 2011-06-30

THE CENTRAL BANK
OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
(BANK OF RUSSIA)
Quarterly
Inflation
Review
2011 Q2
Research and Information Department
The electronic version of Quarterly Inflation Review is available on the Bank of Russia's website:

Contents
Introduction. .................................................................................................................3
Inflation.Dynamics. ........................................................................................................4
Consumer prices ....................................................................................................................... 4
Housing prices .......................................................................................................................... 7
Producer prices ......................................................................................................................... 7
Foreign trade ............................................................................................................................ 9
Demand ................................................................................................................................. 12
Supply .................................................................................................................................... 14
Employment and unemployment ............................................................................................... 15
Monetary.Conditions...................................................................................................17
Exchange rate ......................................................................................................................... 17
Interest rates ........................................................................................................................... 19
Asset prices ............................................................................................................................ 22
Monetary aggregates ............................................................................................................... 23
Credit aggregates .................................................................................................................... 25
Bank.of.Russia.press.releases.on.monetary.policy.measures..
in.April-August.2011. ...................................................................................................27
Statistical.Addendum.................................................................................................. 30
2011 Q2 3
Introduction
The Russian economy registered further
growth of goods and services production in the
first half of 2011. Increasing domestic demand
was the key driver of GDP growth. The lack of sta-
bility in the global economy affected the dynamics
of external demand and Russian exports, which
expanded in the wake of rising energy prices.
There was an increase in the net outflow of private
capital from the country. Macroeconomic indica-
tors moved in opposite directions in the first half
of the year.
The number of people employed in the econ-
omy increased, while the unemployment rate fell
visibly. Real disposable money income of house -
holds dropped in the first half of the year. Still,
output growth was fuelled by rising consumer de-
mand. Fixed capital investments embarked on a
growth path in the second quarter.
Actual output stayed on an upward trend,
moving closely to its potential (natural) levels,
which did not prevent price growth from slow -
ing down. The increase in consumer prices was
also restrained by the appreciation of the ruble.
The growth of food prices, especially vegetable
and fruit prices, tended to slow down, which sug-
gested the weakening of the supply shock in the
food market caused by the drought in the summer
of 2010. From the second half of 2011, year-on-
year inflation is expected to slow down.
With inflationary pressures persisting in the
second quarter of 2011, the Bank of Russia con -
tinued to gradually tighten the monetary policies
that it had launched in December 2010. Phased
increases in interest rates on some of the Bank
of Russia’s operations resulted in the interest rate
band narrowing and shifting upward. Against the
backdrop of slower inflation and persisting risks to
sustainable economic growth in June and August,
the Bank of Russia kept the interest rates on its op-
erations unchanged.
The increased interest rates on Bank of Rus -
sia operations exercised moderate upward pres -
sure on money market interest rates, which stayed
at the lower limit of Bank of Russia interest rate
band. The average MIACR on overnight ruble-
denominated interbank loans rose to 3.6% p.a.
in the second quarter from 2.9% p.a. in the first
quarter. Price indicators in the credit, deposit and
stock markets changed without any particular
pattern in the period under review.
Credit aggregates continued to grow in
the second quarter of 2011. The annual rate of
growth in the total debt on loans stood at 17.8%
as of July 1, 2011. The contribution of credit ac -
tivity to the expansion of broad money supply
increased considerably in January-June 2011. In
the meantime, a significant decrease in the net
claims to general government from the Bank of
Russia (largely due to accumulating funds in Bank
of Russia accounts) had a containing effect on the
growth of money supply.
Current monetary indicator dynamics and
tightening real monetary conditions may pave the
way to a gradual reduction of inflation risks. The
considerably enhanced role of credit activity in
shaping money supply is laying the groundwork
for the Bank of Russia to implement its interest
rate policies more efficiently.
4 2011 Q2
centage points, or 60.1%, of the inflation rate
as against 1.6 percentage points, or 37.2%, in
January-June 2010.
Food prices excluding vegetable and fruit
prices grew by 4.5% in January-June 2011, as
against 2.4% in the first six months of 2010.
Growth in the prices of this group of food prod -
ucts accounted for an estimated 1.6 percentage
points, or 31.1%, of the inflation rate in the first
six months of 2011, as against an estimated 0.8
percentage points, or 19.0%, in the same period
of 2010.
Inflation Dynamics
«The Guidelines for the Single State Mon -
etary Policy in 2011 and for 2012 and 2013»
call for bringing the inflation rate down to 6-7%
in 2011. Year-on-year inflation changed insig -
nificantly in the first half of the year and varied
between 9.4% and 9.6%. In the first months of
2011, it was driven primarily by rising food prices
following the 2010 poor harvest. With consumer
demand going up, non-food goods and services
prices averaged higher growth rates than in the
same period of 2010.
Food price growth began to slow down in
February 2011, when this trend was replaced by
the cheapening of food goods in July. This was
largely driven by declining vegetable and fruit
prices in the second quarter and especially in July
2011. It all may mean that the contracting supply
of agricultural output has been yielding less im -
pact on prices.
If current trends continue and no shocks oc-
cur, the end-year inflation rate in 2011 may come
close to the upper limit of the established yearly
band.
Producer prices in the first six months of
2011 were marked by faster growth of producer
prices of industrial goods (including manufactur-
ers producing goods for the consumer market),
by slower growth of producer prices in construc -
tion, communications and freight transport, and
by low producer price growth in agriculture.
Consumer prices
According to the Federal State Statistics Ser -
vice (Rosstat), consumer prices rose by 5.0% in
January-June 2011 or by 0.6 percentage points
more compared with the same period of 2010.
Over 12-month moving period the growth rate
of consumer prices in June 2011 measured 9.4%
compared with 8.8% in December 2010.
Inflation accelerated in January-June 2011
mainly due to the rising prices of the goods and
services included in core inflation calculation,
which equalled 3.8% as against 2.0% in the
same period of 2010. Growth in the prices of
goods and services included in the core inflation
calculation accounted for an estimated 3.0 per -
Inflation Dynamics
2011 Q2 5
In the first half of 2011, the most signifi -
cant increase in basic food prices excluding veg -
etable and fruit prices was registered in the prices
of groats and beans (19.9%), bread and bakery
products (7.6%), and fish and seafood (7.2%)
(compared with 4.5%, 0.9% and 0.5% in the
first half of 2010 respectively). The prices of other
basic food products also showed higher growth
rates in January-June 2011, than in the same pe-
riod a year earlier. In the meantime, granulated
sugar and egg prices went down.
Vegetable and fruit prices increased by 8.7%
in the first six months of 2011, or by 25.1 per -
centage points less than in the corresponding pe-
riod of 2010. The growth of vegetable and fruit
prices accounted for an estimated 0.4 percentage
points, or 7.3%, of the overall consumer price
growth. In 2010, these numbers were 1.2 per -
centage points and 27.7%.
Overall, food prices increased by 5.0% in
January-June 2011, compared with 5.4% in the
previous year.
Growth in non-food goods prices acceler -
ated to 3.5% in the first half of 2011 from 1.9%
in the same period of 2010. The increase in non-
food goods prices accounted for an estimated
1.2 percentage points, or 24.6%, of the inflation
rate. In January-June 2010, these numbers were
0.7 percentage points and 15.8%. The highest
price growth was registered for tobacco (12.4%)
and petrol (10.6%) (9.4% and 2.3% in the first
six months of 2010 respectively). The growth of
petrol prices accounted for an estimated 0.7 per-
centage points, or 21.0%, to the overall non-food
goods price growth. The growth in the prices of
fabrics, clothing, underwear , knitwear and foot -
wear did not exceed 3.5%. The prices of television
Consumer price inflation (%)
Growth
June 2011 on December 2010 June 2010 on December 2009 Change, percentage points
Prices of goods and services, total 5.0 4.4 Acceleration of growth by 0.6
of which:
– food prices 5.0 5.4 Slowing of growth by 0.4
– food prices, excluding vegetable and fruit prices 4.5 2.4 Acceleration of growth by 2.1
– non-food goods prices 3.5 1.9 Acceleration of growth by 1.6
– prices of paid services provided to households 7.2 6.4 Acceleration of growth by 0.8
Prices of goods and services included in core inflation calculation 3.8 2.0 Acceleration of growth by 1.8
Source: Rosstat.
Food price inflation (%)
Growth
June 2011 on December 2010 June 2010 on December 2009 Change, percentage points
Foodstuffs 5.0 5.4 Slowing of growth by 0.4
Bread and bakery products 7.6 0.9 Acceleration of growth by 6.7
Groats and beans 19.9 4.5 Acceleration of growth by 15.4
Pasta 4.3 -2.7
Meat and poultry 4.7 1.3 Acceleration of growth by 3.4
Fish and seafood 7.2 0.5 Acceleration of growth by 6.7
Milk and dairy products 3.0 3.6 Slowing of growth by 0.6
Butter 3.1 5.3 Slowing of growth by 2.2
Sunflower oil 6.2 0.3 Acceleration of growth by 5.9
Granulated sugar -4.7 -3.4
Vegetables and fruit 8.7 33.8 Slowing of growth by 25.1
Alcoholic beverages 4.8 5.7 Slowing of growth by 0.9
Source: Rosstat.
6 2011 Q2
sets and radios declined by 0.6% (compared with
a reduction by 1.7% in the first half of 2010).
Prices and rates of paid services provided to
households increased by 7.2% in January-June
2011 (compared with 6.4% in the same period of
2010), and accounted for an estimated 1.9 per -
centage points, or 37.1%, of the headline con -
sumer price growth in the first half of 2011 (com-
Analysis of the price growth distribution (in the second quarter) for goods and services in 2008-11 was
made using a sample composed of more than 450 consumer goods and services regardless of their weights in
consumer spending.
In the past four years, more than half of the consumer goods and services in question demonstrated price
growth ranging from 0 to 4%. In 2008-09, their share was not more than 60%, but it has gone up in the past
two years. The interval accommodated 73% of goods and services in the second quarter of 2011 (68.5% in the
corresponding period of 2010). The share of goods and services, whose prices had dropped, made 17% in the
second quarter of 2011 (25.3% in 2010).
The key characteristics of the distribution are: the median, mean, and standard deviation. In the second
quarter of 2011, the median, which in this type of distribution reflects the price growth of the bulk of goods and
services, measured 1.5% (0.8% in the corresponding period of 2010) and was lower than in 2008 and 2009
(2.7% and 2.4% respectively). The mean increased by 0.6 percentage points in the second quarter of 2011,
compared to the same period of 2010, to stand at 1.6%. The standard deviation, which shows how diffuse the
distribution is, dipped to 4.0%, as against 4.3% a year earlier. The standard deviation in the distribution of price
growth for paid services increased to 4.2% from 3.2% in the second quarter of 2010, as a result of a steep rise
in the prices of some types of transportation services.
The median of distributions of foodstuffs, non-food goods and services differed little in the second quarter
of 2011, ranging from 1.4% to 1.6%. During this period, the price growth interval of 0 to 2% accommodated
43.5% of foodstuffs, 56.2% of non-food goods, and 45.9% of services (corresponding ratios equalled 55.6%,
58.8% and 61.8% in the same period of 2010).
These distributions are an additional tool to analyse the negative supply shock dynamics in the food market
caused by the drought. The shock had first manifested itself in the third quarter of 2010. Because of adverse
weather, goods experiencing price growth of more than 14% came to represent 7.2% (3.2% in the second
quarter of 2010). The share of goods with declining prices, which was typical of that quarter, accounted for
8.8%. As a result, the standard deviation soared to 11.1%. In the meantime, the median of distribution was
quite low at 1.4%, with the price growth interval of 0 to 2% housing 49.2% of all foodstuffs. In the two quarters
that followed, the share of goods with decreasing prices plummeted (to 4.8% and 2.4% respectively), while
goods with fast growing prices retained their significant share (7.2%). The standard deviation dropped almost
by half, with the median measuring 2.8% and 3.0% respectively. The high price growth in the first quarter of
2011 was partly due to seasonal factors, and the impact of the supply shock began to diminish. In the second
quarter, the share of goods with high (over 14%) price increases fell to 0.8%, while the share of goods with
lowering prices reached 15.3,% and the median dropped to 1.5%.
Inflation Dynamics
2011 Q2 7
In January-June 2011, the price growth rates
for paid services provided to households in the
federal districts varied between 6.5% and 8.4%
and, except for the North Caucasian and Urals
Districts, were higher than in the same period of
past year.
Housing prices
Housing prices increased by 3.1% in the
primary market and by 2.4% in the secondary
market in January-June 2011 from December of
the previous year. Over the same period of 2010,
housing prices grew by 0.1% in the primary mar-
ket and by 1.4% in the secondary market.
In January-June 2011, housing price dy -
namics were influenced by some rebound in the
real estate market amid the contraction of com -
missioned housing. Specifically, the floor space
commissioned in January-June 2011, contracted
by 3.7% compared with the same period of 2010
(in decreased by 0.6% a year before).
Producer prices
Industrial producer prices rose by 7.9%
in January-June 2011, as against 5.5% in the
same period a year earlier. The accelerating pro -
ducer price growth was chiefly attributable to
the increase in mining and quarrying prices. Pro -
ducer prices in this type of economic activity grew
by 14.4% during the first six months of 2011,
whereas in the same period of 2010 they fell by
2.7%. Producer prices in the mining and quarry -
pared with 1.7 percentage points, or 37.5%, of
the inflation rate in January-June 2010).
Administered prices of paid services grew
by an estimated 10.3% in January-June 2011,
which was by 0.6 percentage points slower , than
in the same period last year. Housing and public
utility prices rose by 10.9% in the first six months
of 2011, as against 11.9% in January-June 2010.
Passenger transport fees grew by 9.5% in the first
six months of 2011, as against 7.0% in the same
period a year earlier.
Price growth accelerated for most types of
services included in the core inflation calculation
in the first half of 2011. The largest growth was
recorded in the prices of sanatoria, resorts and
health care services (11.7%), and preschool tu -
ition services (9.5%). In January-June 2010,
these measures were 8.1% and 4.5%.
The growth of the prices and rates of paid
services provided to households was 3.0 per -
centage points higher than the overall increase in
goods prices (this compares with 2.7 percentage
points in the corresponding period of 2010).
According to Rosstat data, consumer price
growth was higher in all federal districts of Rus-
sia except for the North Caucasian Federal District
in the first half of 2011 than in the same period of
the previous year.
June 2011 estimates suggests that there
were less differences between federal constituent
territories of the Russian Federation in terms of
the price of a fixed set of goods and services used
by the Federal State Statistics Service for interre -
gional comparisons of the purchasing power of
households. For example, the regional difference
ratio1 fell to 39.8% against 42.5% in September
last year.
The rates of growth in food price, exclud -
ing vegetable and fruit prices, ranged from 3.5%
to 5.1% in the federal districts in the first half of
2011. The corresponding interval of price growth
for non-food goods was 3.2% to 4.1%.
The rates of growth in vegetable and fruit
prices differed significantly by region. For exam -
ple, these prices rose by 6.2% in the Volga Federal
District and by 13.1% in the Urals Federal District.
1 The regional difference ratio is calculated by the Bank of
Russia as the difference between the price of a fixed set of
goods and services in the most and least expensive regions
relative to the national average cost of the set.
8 2011 Q2
increased by 9.2%, up by 6.9 percentage points
compared with the first six months of 2010.
Producer prices in manufacturing industries
rose by 5.5% in the first half of 2011 (8.6% in
the same period of 2010). Among manufac -
tured goods, textile and textile products chalked
up the highest growth (12.0%) followed by coke
(9.9%). Producer prices in the output of petro -
leum products grew moderately by 6.7% (8.5%
a year before).
Recent surveys of actual and projected pro -
ducer prices dynamics (June 2011) conducted by
Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy showed that
the slowdown of producer price growth recorded
by surveys since February has stopped (the total
ing of energy producing materials increased by
14.6% in the first six months of 2011 (in Janu -
ary-June 2010, they declined by 4.8%).
In the first half of 2011, price growth in elec-
tricity, gas and water supply slowed down by 2.6
percentage points to 8.6%, compared with the
corresponding period of 2010.
Growth in consumer goods producer prices
accelerated. Specifically, producer prices for food-
stuffs, including beverages, and tobacco products
were up 1.0 percentage point compared with the
first half of 2010, to reach 2.1%; and for textile
and textile products they grew by 8.0 percentage
points to reach 12.0%. In the production of leath-
er , leather goods and footwear producer prices
Inflation Dynamics
2011 Q2 9
of estimates ceased to drop in June). Institute
analysts believe that pricing policy changes were
prompted by an increase in sales.
Freight transportation charges increased
by 11% in January-June 2011, as against 30.4%
in the same period of 2010. Railway transport
fares went up by 7.5%, as against 9.4% a year
earlier.
Communications fees for corporate entities
grew by 3.8% in the first half of 2011 (6.9% in
the first six months of 2010).
Producer prices of building materials in-
creased by 3.4% in the first half of 2011 (3.6%
in the corresponding period of 2010).
Agricultural producer prices grew by 1.2%
in the first half of 2011 (they decreased by 0.3%
in the corresponding period of past year). Crop
grower prices increased by 8.3%, compared with
0.9% in January-June 2010. Grain prices grew
by 10.7% and sunflower seed prices grew by
7% (in January-June 2010, grain producer prices
dropped by 2.1%, while sunflower producer pric-
es went up by 14.7%). Livestock producer prices
fell by 4.5% as against 1.0% in January-June
2010. In the meantime, cattle producer prices
rose by 3.2%, while milk and egg producer prices
dropped by 8.6% and 30.6% respectively. In Jan-
uary-June 2010, cattle prices were down 1.7%,
milk producer prices were up 6.4%, and egg pro-
ducer prices were down 17.7%.
Foreign trade
Conditions for Russia’s trade improved in the
first half of 2011 compared with the same period
of last year as export prices grew faster than im -
port prices. The growth of global energy prices
Inflation in countries trading with Russia1
Consumer price growth in the countries that account for a considerable weight in the structure of Russian
imports equalled 3.8% in the first half of 2011 (June on December of the previous year) compared with 1.5%
in the corresponding period of 2010. The inflation processes were driven by rising energy and food prices in the
global markets. This factor contributed less to the inflation rate in the second quarter than in the first quarter.
Food prices grew at a high rate in January and February but became unstable in March onward. The FAO food
price index was lower in June compared with the all-time high in February. After peaking in April, oil prices
dipped in May and June. As foreign economies recovered and returned to a path of growth following the crisis,
rising demand has gradually increased its impact on inflation.
Food price increases contributed less to the overall growth of consumer prices both in the eurozone and in
the United States in April-June 2011, compared with January-March 2011. Fuel prices dropped slightly in the
eurozone in the second quarter; in the United States fuel price growth slowed down considerably. Rising prices of
goods and services included in the calculation of core consumer price index (excluding energy and food prices)
contributed visibly more in the eurozone and less in
the United States. The IMF estimates that Germany’s
GDP will reach its potential level in the current year,
whereas the output gap will remain negative in the
United States and the US economy prospects appear
uncertain in the medium term.
The reason why the aggregate price growth in-
dex in Russia’s trading partners grew slightly in the
second quarter compared with the first quarter was
that prices soared in the Republic of Belarus follow -
ing the devaluation of the Belarussian ruble in May
2011. In Ukraine and Kazakhstan, inflationary pres-
sures eased up in the second quarter as the growth
of food prices and administered tariffs slowed down
(conditioned, among other things, by seasonal fac -
tors). In China, price growth in April-June was also
lower than in January-March. But the statistical base
effect manifested itself in higher inflation rates on a
year-on-year basis.
1 According to data reported by national statistics agencies of Russia’s trading partners.
10 2011 Q2
prove in the first half of 2011. World energy pric-
es grew by an average of 36% in January-June
2011, compared with the same period last year ,
while non-energy prices gained 19%.
World oil prices in the first six months of
2011 were largely influenced by the exacerbating
political situation in North Africa and the Middle
East. The growth of oil prices was also facilitated
by the upward revision of forecasts on the global
demand for oil, especially from China, and the
channelling of considerable funds into commod -
ity markets for investment purposes. High levels
of US commercial oil inventories restrained oil
price growth. As a result, the price of Urals crude
steadied at $108.3 per barrel in the first half of
was accompanied by increases in producer and
consumer prices for petrol in the domestic mar -
ket. In the world food markets, prices tended to
fall or grow more slowly for some goods. In the
domestic consumer market, the growth of food
prices also slowed down.
The price situation for major Russian export
commodities in world markets 2 continued to im -
2 Average prices are based on data reported daily by the fol-
lowing news agencies and exchanges: Reuters for oil, Fi -
nancial Times for petroleum products (petrol, diesel fuel
and fuel oil) and sugar. Ferrous metal prices have been
gauged on the basis of price indices, while prices of natu -
ral gas, non-ferrous metals (aluminum, copper and nickel)
and other commodities are monthly averages published by
the World Bank and the IMF .
Inflation Dynamics
2011 Q2 11
2011, up by 42.7% on the same period of 2010.
Natural gas prices in Europe increased by 20.8%.
Petroleum product prices increased by 40%
on average in the first half of 2011, compared
with the corresponding period of past year. The
price of diesel fuel grew at the highest rate – by
41%, petrol – by 35%, and fuel oil – by 32%.
Despite the slowdown of ferrous metal prices
in the second quarter of 2011, they climbed by
16% in the first half of 2011, against the corre -
sponding period last year. In the second quarter of
2011, prices in the world market of non-ferrous
metals declined for the most part, especially for
nickel, but still remained higher than in the second
quarter of 2010. Thus, the prices of aluminium
went up by 20%, copper – by 32% and nickel –
by 21% in the first half of 2011, compared with
the first half of 2010.
In the global grain markets, price growth
slowed down in the second quarter 2011. How -
ever , because they had soared in the second half
of 2010, price levels in the first half of 2011 were
much higher than in the same period last year
(wheat and maize prices rose by 80% and bar -
ley – by 40%).
In the second quarter of 2011, prices largely
declined in the food markets and price growth
slowed down for some goods. Still, all observed
prices were higher in the first half of 2011 than
in the same period of 2010. Beef and pork prices
increased by 24% and 16% respectively, poultry
prices – by 1%.
International trade
The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that the world oil consumption increased by 1.7% in the
first half of 2011, compared with the first half of 2010, largely owing to increased consumption in China and
other Asian countries. In European countries, members of the OECD, consumption fell by 1.0%. According to the
IEA forecasts, global oil consumption will grow by 1.4% in 2011, but in Europe (OECD) it will decline by 1.1%.
The average price of Brent, Dubai and West T exas Intermediate crude rose to $104.9 per barrel in January-
June 2011 (by 35.2%) from $77.6 per barrel in the first half of 2010. In June 2011, the IMF lowered its 2011
forecast on the average price of the three crude oil benchmarks to $106.3 per barrel compared with its April
forecast of $107.2 per barrel.
According to Eurostat data, EU import quantities of mineral fuel and lubricants increased by 3.9% in Jan -
uary-May 2011 than in the same period of 2010. In the meantime, the average unit value of the imports 1 of
these commodities increased by 33.9%. According to IMF data, the price of Russian natural gas exported to
Germany was on average 22.2% higher in January-June 2011 than in the same period last year.
1 The average unit value of imports is the ratio of changes in the value of imports of particular commodities to changes in the import quanti-
ties.
12 2011 Q2
In the first half of 2011, vegetable fat pric -
es were higher than in the first half of 2010 by a
factor of 1.5, even though they fell in the second
quarter of 2011, quarter on quarter.
After reaching their record highs in the first
quarter of 2011, global sugar prices dropped
in the second quarter , but on average raw sugar
prices increased by 41% and refined sugar pric -
es – by 32% in January-June 2011, year on year.
Demand
In the first half of 2011, growing domestic
demand did not prevent consumer price growth
from slowing down. Actual output of goods and
services was estimated close to the potential (nat-
ural) level, which indicates that there was no ex -
cess demand in the economy.
Household consumer spending growth
slowed down to some extent in the second quar-
ter of 2011 but remained high. In April-June,
fixed capital investment resumed its growth, but
overall investment activity remained weak in the
first half of 2011 as a sign of inconclusive eco -
nomic recovery.
Instability in the global economy in the first
half of 2011 manifested itself in the weak exter -
nal demand for Russian exports.
Domestic demand
Rising domestic demand backed economic
growth in the first half of 2011. Increased real
wages, improved labour market conditions and
enhanced borrowing by households contributed
to the growth of consumer demand. In the sec -
ond quarter , the growth rate of real household
spending on goods and services3 slowed down. In
the first six months, it increased by an estimated
6.7%.
The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) 4 re-
flecting consumer expectations improved in the
second quarter compared with the previous quar-
ter. The improvement was the result of positive
changes in all CCI components, including expec -
3 Rosstat reviewed the data for 2010 and for January through
June 2011 in June 2011 as the methodology to account
money incomes had changed.
4 According to Rosstat studies the CCI is calculated as an
arithmetic mean of five indices: past and expected changes
in personal wellbeing, past and expected changes in the
economic situation in Russia, and favourable conditions for
large purchases.
tations regarding future economic developments
and personal wellbeing.
In the second quarter , household real con -
sumer spending took place amid the continued
contraction of household real disposable money
income. In January-June, it fell by 1.4%. The
share of consumer spending in the structure of
household money income use increased by 5.6
percentage points in the first half of 2011 on
the corresponding period of 2010 to 76.2%.
As interest rates on retail deposits remained low,
household propensity to save through organised
channels decreased. The share of the spending
on the purchase of foreign currency increased by
0.7 percentage points in January-June, to reach
3.9%.
As the economy grew and the national cur -
rency appreciated, domestic demand grew much
faster for imports than for local products. In the
first quarter of 2011, the share of imported goods
in the retail trade resources was 43% (non-food
imports dropped by 1.9 percentage points to
50.7%, while the share of food imports remained
unchanged at 35%).
In the first half of 2011, the value of im -
ported goods grew at a high rate and topped the
pre-crisis level (i.e. the first half of 2008). Over
two-thirds of the growth of imports was the re -
sult of the expansion of import quantities and
almost one-third – the result of increased import
prices. Imports of investment goods grew faster
than food imports in the first half of 2011. Im -
ported goods 5 were up 42% in the first half of
2011, compared with the same period of 2010,
to $147.8 billion.
According to the Federal Treasury’s data,
general budget expenditure decreased to 33.8%
of GDP in January-June 2011, as against 36.3%
in the first six months of 2010. Non-interest ex -
penditure accounted for 33.2% of GDP , as against
35.7% in the same period last year.
In January-June 2011, the general govern -
ment registered a budget surplus of 7.3% of GDP ,
which represents an increase of 6.0 percentage
points compared with the same period last year.
The improved budget balance, on the one hand,
was related to higher oil and gas revenues and,
on the other hand, reflected the impact of the
5 Balance of payments estimate as of July 5, 2011.
Inflation Dynamics
2011 Q2 13
government’s tightening of its fiscal policy for the
purpose of strengthening macroeconomic stabil -
ity and sustainability of public finance.
The growth of general government expendi-
ture on final consumption slowed down to 0.1%
in the first quarter of 2011.
Gross fixed capital formation fell by 0.6% in
the first quarter of 2011. The second quarter saw
a resurgence of investment activity. In the first six
months fixed capital investment grew by 2.7%.
More than one-third of total investment was used
to purchase machinery, equipment and vehicles,
with investments directed to buy imported equip-
ment, falling by 0.9 percentage points in the first
quarter of 2011, compared with the correspond-
ing period of 2010, to settle at 19.5%.
Fixed capital investment was financed pre -
dominantly by raised funds. Bank loans account -
Economic growth in foreign countries1
GDP in the group of countries carrying much weight in the structure of Russian exports increased by an es-
timated 4.0% in the first half of 2011 compared with the same period last year (same as in January-June 2010).
Preliminary data and estimates suggest that GDP grew by 1.9% in the United States, by 2.1% in the eurozone,
and by 9.6% in China. The GDP growth rates in the eurozone climbed up appreciably in the first quarter of 2011,
fostered by the enhanced contribution of fixed capital investment. The statistical base effect contributed to the
slowdown of the GDP growth rates in the trading partners in the second quarter.
In June 2011, the IMF lowered its 2011 forecast for the global production of goods and services (growth
by 4.3%) compared with the forecast released in April (growth by 4.4%). The projected slowdown of global
growth rates compared with 2010 (by 5.1%) resulted from a statistical base effect on the performance indi -
cators reported in the period from the second quarter to the fourth quarter of 2011. The IMF downgraded its
2011 GDP growth forecast for the US GDP from 2.8% to 2.5% and upgraded its GDP forecast for the eurozone
from 1.6% to 2.0%. The growth projections for the world and individual countries were revised downward tak-
ing into account the high energy prices and the aftermath of the natural disaster in Japan, which also affected
the US industry because of disruptions in scheduled supplies of intermediate products. Meanwhile, investment
performance in key European economies – Germany and France – has proved better than projected. According
to the IMF forecasts, international trade in goods and services should expand by 8.2% in 2011 (compared with
12.4% in 2010).
1 According to data compiled by the national statistics agencies of Russia’s trading partners.
GDP by expenditure
(growth as % of corresponding period of previous year)
2010 2011
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Full year Q1
GDP 3.5 5.0 3.1 4.5 4.0 4.1
Final consumption 0.3 3.8 4.0 1.9 2.5 4.0
of which
– households -0.5 4.7 5.1 2.7 3.0 5.7
Gross capital formation 0.8 27.9 29.8 39.3 28.4 44.2
Export 18.7 4.1 2.2 5.0 7.1 0.0
Import 11.4 21.7 34.8 30.1 25.6 23.1
Source: Rosstat.
14 2011 Q2
ed for 7% in January-March, a contraction of 2.5
percentage points from the first quarter of 2010.
With imported quantities of goods and ser -
vices growing much faster than exports in the
first half of 2011, net exports of goods and ser -
vices were estimated to have chalked up negative
growth.
Foreign demand
Foreign demand for Russian goods was weak
in the first half of 2011. Overall, export quantities
were slightly lower than in the first half of 2010.
Exports of oil, petroleum products, ferrous and
non-ferrous metals (except aluminium) and some
other commodities shrank. Growth was registered
in the export quantities of natural gas, aluminium,
mineral fertiliser , unprocessed and processed tim-
ber and motor cars. A 31% increase in export in
the first half of 2011 (to $249.5 billion 6) result-
ed from higher prices. Export growth rates to EU
member countries lagged behind the overall ex -
port growth rates. The EU share in Russia’s com -
modities exports dropped by 2 percentage points
compared with the first half of 2010. Within this
group of countries, the shares of principle import-
ers of Russian goods such as the Netherlands and
Italy declined, while Germany’s share rose slightly.
Growth in export rates to the Asia-Pacific Econom-
ic Cooperation (APEC) countries was considerably
higher than overall export growth rates. The share
of APEC member countries in Russia’s commod -
ity exports grew by 1.3 percentage points. With -
in this group of countries, China and the United
States increased their shares, while Japan saw its
share drop. Exports to CIS member countries in -
creased faster than overall exports and largely ex-
panded due to growth in exports to Ukraine and
Belarus.
Supply
Capacity utilisation in industry has continued
to improve in the current year and is now close to
its natural level. Further improvements can have a
negative impact on price changes.
In the first half of 2011, output in the core
sectors of economy rose by 3.9% (compared with
7.0% in January-June 2010). Production growth
was registered in most of key economic activities,
excluding wholesale trade.
6 Balance of payments estimate as of July 5, 2011.
Industrial output grew by 5.3% in January-
June 2011 against 10.2% in the first six months
of 2010. High growth rates were reported in
manufacturing industries, with the production
of transport vehicles, rubber and plastic products
rising substantially.
Output in the mining and quarrying increased
by 2.5%; particularly high growth was registered
in the mining and quarrying of metal ores and
other minerals. Oil output expanded by 0.8% and
gas production grew by 4.5%.
Industrial production capacity utilisation ratio
increased but was still below the pre-crisis level.
Monetary Conditions
2011 Q2 15
The Russian Economic Barometer reported that
capacity utilisation ratio averaged 76.6% in the
first five months of 2011 (compared with 70%
in January-May 2010). In May, the industrial ca-
pacity utilisation leaders were the timber and the
wood-working industry (84%), chemicals (83%)
and machine-building (82%), whereas the low -
est rate was observed in metallurgy (74%) and
the light industry (73%).
Agricultural output increased by 0.7% in
January-June 2011. The production of key live -
stock products increased. The output of meat and
meat products grew by 7.1%, of which meat, in-
cluding by-products, rose by 3.7%.
The Ministry of Agriculture forecasted that
this year’s gross grain harvest may reach 85-90
million tonnes (60.9 million tonnes in 2010).
Acreages under grain and leguminous crops ex -
panded by 1.2%, year on year. More land was
sown with sunflowers, sugar beets and vegeta -
bles: by 5.7%, 11.2% and 4.9% respectively. Po-
tato fields remained at about last year’s level.
The expected good harvest for most crops
may reduce the dependence of domestic produc-
ers on imported raw agricultural commodities and
contain the growth of prices for end products.
In the first half of 2011, GDP increased by an
estimated 3.7% compared with the correspond -
ing period of 2010. Actual output is estimated
close to its potential (natural level), which is not
stopping price growth from slowing down.
Employment and unemployment
In the first half of 2011, wage growth was
estimated not to have exceeded labour produc -
tivity growth, which indicates that there was no
additional pressure on prices. The total unem -
ployment rate was estimated below the potential
(natural) level. Further growth of employment
and, consequently, demand may increase infla -
tionary processes in the economy.
The number of people employed in the econ-
omy increased by 1.5% in January-June 2011
(compared with 0.3% a year earlier).
The 2011 year saw more employer-initiated
redundancies of part-time employees, which is
a sign that labour utilisation was growing in the
economy. In June 2011, part-time employment
was down 45% on December 2010 and down
52.1% on June 2010.
In the first quarter of 2011, labour produc -
tivity increased by an estimated 2%. It was esti -
mated to have risen in the goods producing sec -
tor and remained virtually unchanged in the ser -
vices sector at the level of January-March 2010.
Growth in the output of services was slower than
in the output of goods. Estimates showed that
employment in the services sector increased more
substantially than employment in the goods pro -
ducing sector in January-March 2011, compared
with the corresponding period last year.
Real wages grew by 2.4% in the first half of
2011 and were estimated not to have exceeded
16 2011 Q2
the labour productivity growth. Unit labour costs
measured as share of compensation of employees
(including undeclared compensation and mixed
income), continued to decline in the breakdown
of GDP by source of income. They fell by 0.5 per-
centage points in the first quarter of 2011, to
53.8% compared with the corresponding period
last year.
Significant differences in wage levels between
various types of economic activity remained this
year.
The total number of the unemployed dropped
by 13.2% in the first half of 2011 to 6.1% of the
economically active population as of the end of
June (6.8% as of the end of June 2010 and 5.6%
as of the end of June 2008). Total unemployment
exceeded the number of registered unemployed
by a factor of 3.2. Most of the jobless were look -
ing for work without any support of the employ -
ment services.
Total unemployment was estimated below
the potential rate in the first quarter of 2011.
Average monthly imputed salary accruals by type
of economic activity (in January-May 2011)
Type of activity Rubles As a % of the All-Russian level
Total 21,904 100
Agriculture, etc. 10,971 50
Mining and quarrying 41,288 188
Manufacturing industries 20,345 93
Electricity, gas and water supply 25,757 118
Construction 21,850 99.8
Wholesale and retail trade, etc. 20,130 92
Transport and communication 27,035 123
Financial activity 53,873 2.5 times
Transactions with real estate and others 26,538 121
Public administration, etc. 24,389 111
Education 14,228 65
Public health and social services 16,059 73
Utility services, etc. 17,116 78
Source: Rosstat.
2011 Q2 17
0.3%. As a result, the official rate of the US dollar
against the ruble stood at 27.6796 as of August
1, 2011.
The nominal ruble/euro rate decreased
by 0.7% in the second quarter of 2011 (follow -
ing an appreciation of 4.3% in the first quarter of
2011). The ruble lost 1.9% in April, gained 1.1%
in May, and lost 0.3% in June. The official rate of
the ruble against the euro stood at 40.4153 as of
July 1, 2011. In July, the nominal rate of the ruble
against the single European currency appreciated
by 0.8%. As a result, the official rate of the euro
against the ruble stood at 39.5182 as of August
1, 2011.
The ruble value of the bi-currency basket
stood at 33.5168 rubles as of July 1, 2011. Dur-
ing July 2011, the value of the operational bench-
mark experienced minor short-term fluctuations
and amounted to 33.0070 rubles as of August 1,
2011.
The nominal effective rate of the ruble
against foreign currencies increased by 2.4%
in April-June 2011 (compared with 4.6% in the
first quarter of 2011).
The real ruble/US dollar rate increased by
4.3% in the second quarter of 2011 (compared
with 8.0% in the first quarter of 2011). The rela-
Exchange rate
Favourable conditions continued to shape up
in the domestic market in the second quarter of
2011 and were conducive to the strengthening
of the ruble against major global currencies while
the prices of Russian exports remained high. The
Bank of Russia’s exchange rate policy sought to
keep the volatility of the national currency within
acceptable boundaries.
According to preliminary data, the current
account surplus stood at $57.6 billion in January-
June 2011 (compared with $32.4 billion in the
first quarter of 2011). Estimates showed that a
net private capital outflow was reduced to $9.9
billion in the second quarter ($21.3 billion in the
first quarter of 2011). In the second quarter of
2011, Russia’s international reserves increased by
4.4% to $524.5 billion as of July 1, 2011.
The nominal ruble/US dollar rate in -
creased by 4.6% in the second quarter of 2011
(compared with 5.0% in the first quarter of
2011). The ruble appreciated by 1.2% in April
and by 0.8% in May, and weakened by 0.4% in
June. As of July 1, 2011, the official rate of the
ruble against the US currency was 27.8726. In
July, with energy prices remaining favourable, the
nominal ruble/US dollar exchange rate gained
Monetary Conditions
18 2011 Q2
tion of 7.7% in the first quarter of 2011). The
contribution of the corresponding nominal ex -
change rate to the real ruble/euro exchange rate
was substantially less than in the first quarter of
2011, which was largely due to a low absolute
value of the index recorded in April-June 2011.
Preliminary estimates show that the ruble weak -
tive contribution of the nominal exchange rate to
it increased, topping 50% compared with Jan -
uary-March 2011. Estimates show that in July
2011 the ruble continued to appreciate against
the US dollar in real terms and increased by 0.4%.
The real ruble/euro rate depreciated by
0.3% in April-June 2011 (following its apprecia-
International currency market
In the international foreign exchange market, the US dollar depreciated by about 9% against the euro in the
first half of 2011 (June 2011 on December 2010) due to the Federal Reserve’s additional measures of accom-
modative monetary policy, and also as a result of eurozone interest rate increase. In January-May 2011, the US
trade deficit increased alongside a decrease in net foreign capital investments in long-term US resident securi -
ties, which also contributed to the weakening of the US dollar. The strengthening of the euro was held back by
the financial problems in a number of eurozone countries, especially Greece.
The currencies of most of Russia’s major trad -
ing partners (including China, Japan, the Repub -
lic of Korea, Great Britain, Brazil and Kazakhstan)
strengthened against the US dollar and depreciated
against the euro. There were no significant changes
in the exchange rates of the Indian rupee or Ukrai -
nian hryvnia against the US dollar, nor of the Pol -
ish zloty or a number of other European currencies
tightly pegged to the euro, against the euro. The
Swiss franc, Hungarian forint, Czech koruna and
Romanian leu strengthened against the world’s two
leading currencies, while the Turkish lira and the Be-
larussian ruble depreciated against them. On May
24, 2011, the National Bank of Belarus carried out
a one-time adjustment of the official exchange rates
of the Belarussian ruble against foreign currencies,
resulting in a 54%-increase of the Belarussian ruble
equivalent value of a currency basket composed of
equal portions of the US dollar, euro and Russian
ruble.
Monetary Conditions
2011 Q2 19
percentage points, which caused the interest rate
band to narrow.
On June 30 and August 4, 2011, against
the backdrop of retarded inflation and improved
economic conditions, the Bank of Russia Board of
Directors left the interest rates on Bank of Russia
operations unchanged.
In the second quarter of 2011, the interest
rates on ruble-denominated interbank loans
extended for various terms fluctuated within a
relatively narrow horizontal band, except for the
tax payment periods. Fluctuations in MIACR on
overnight ruble-denominated interbank loans
amounted to 1.8 percentage points in April-June
2011 (compared with 0.7 percentage points in
January-March 2011). The average quarterly
MIACR on overnight interbank ruble loans stood
at 3.6% p.a. in the second quarter compared
with 2.9% in the first quarter of 2011. In July
2011, the MIACR on overnight interbank ruble
loans moved within the range of 3.6-4.8% p.a.
The average MIACR on overnight interbank ruble
loans in July 2011 increased by 0.2 percentage
points, month on month, to 3.9% p.a. The aver -
age interest rate on ruble interbank loans placed
by Russian banks for a term of 2-7 days increased
from 2.8% p.a. in 2011 Q1 to 3.7% p.a. in 2011
Q2, for a term of 8-30 days from 3.8% p.a. to
4.1% p.a., and on loans placed for a term of 1-3
months from 4.6% p.a. to 4.7% p.a.
The average interest rate on short-term
household ruble deposits continued to de -
ened by 0.8% in real terms against the single Eu-
ropean currency in July 2011.
The real effective rate of the ruble against
foreign currencies appreciated by 1.6% in the
second quarter of 2011 (7.3% in the first quarter
of 2011). According to preliminary data, the real
effective rate was less significant in July 2011 and
equalled 0.2%.
In general, the national currency tended to
appreciate in the second quarter of 2011, which
does not harbinger additional inflationary risks
from the exchange rate until the end of 2011.
Interest rates
Amid persisting inflationary pressures and
risks existing for sustainable economic growth,
the Bank of Russia Board of Directors took de -
cisions in April and May 2011 to continue rais -
ing interest rates on some of Bank of Russia op -
erations. From May 3, 2011, the Bank of Russia
raised the refinancing rate and overnight credit
rate to 8.25% p.a. and the rates on all standard
deposits to 3.25% p.a. As a result, the interest rate
band shifted upward by 0.25 percentage points.
The Bank of Russia also raised open market rates
and fixed rates on loans secured with non-market
assets or guarantees. In the meantime, it kept un-
changed repo rates and rates on Lombard loans
with maturities of up to one month at 6.75% p.a.
From May 31, 2011, the Bank of Russia raised
the maximum rates of deposit auctions and fixed
rates on standard-term deposits by another 0.25
20 2011 Q2
of 2011, to 22.5% p.a., and on long-term loans –
it fell by 0.3 percentage points to 17.2% p.a.
In April-June 2011, interest rates on short-
term and long-term ruble loans to non-financial
organisations declined for the most part. The av-
erage interest rate on short-term loans dropped
by 0.3 percentage points in the second quarter of
2011, quarter on quarter , to 8.3% p.a., and on
long-term loans it fell by 0.1 percentage points
to 10.5% p.a. The yield curve for loans to non-
financial organisations shifted down a little in the
second quarter of 2011, quarter on quarter , in
the up-to-1-year and over-3-year segments. The
rising yield curve sector extended from one year
cline in April but rose slightly in June. In the sec -
ond quarter , the rate dropped by 0.2 percentage
points, quarter on quarter , to 5.1% p.a. The inter-
est rate on long-term (with terms of 1-3 years)
household deposits was quite volatile and went
up in June 2011 to the September 2010 level. In
the second quarter of 2011, the average long-
term household deposit rate dropped by less than
0.1 percentage points, quarter on quarter , to
5.7% p.a.
In the ruble-denominated household loan
market, the average interest rate on short-term
loans fell by 2.5 percentage points in the second
quarter of 2011, compared with the first quarter
Liquidity situation and Bank of Russia operations
In April-July 2011, credit institutions held slightly less free funds compared with the first quarter. Bank of
Russia average daily obligations to credit institutions on the liquidity absorption instruments reduced from 1.4
trillion rubles in 2011 Q1 to 0.9 trillion rubles in 2011 Q2, and to 0.6 trillion rubles in July 2011. The MIACR on
overnight ruble loans stayed invariably above the lower limit of Bank of Russia interest rate band in April-July (the
average deviation over the period was 0.3 percentage points), whereas these rates were essentially identical in
the first quarter of 2011. Meanwhile, credit institutions’ demand for Bank of Russia liquidity provision instru -
ments remained quite insignificant. Bank of Russia average daily claims to credit institutions on instruments used
to provide liquidity decreased from about 11 billion rubles in the first quarter to 5 billion rubles in the second
quarter, and to 3.5 billion rubles in July 2011.
In the period under review, the Bank of Russia implemented actions it had announced earlier to tighten
requirements for collaterals accepted for refinancing instruments. In particular, from April 2011, Bank of Russia
List of Organisations started to include organisations with long-term credit ratings assigned by at least one inter-
national rating agency not lower than B/B2 from April 1, 2011, and not lower than B+/B1 from July 1. The Bank
of Russia also tightened the requirements for the credit quality of the debt included in Bank of Russia Lombard
List – the minimum required international credit rating assigned to their issuers (issues) was raised to B/B2 from
April 1, and to B+/B1 from July 1, 2011.
Monetary Conditions
2011 Q2 21
in the first quarter of 2011 to three years in the
second quarter of 2011.
OFZ market yields changed both ways in
the second quarter of 2011, with slightly upward
dynamics as the prevailing trend. The average
quarterly effective OFZ market portfolio indicator
(MPI)1 remained unchanged in 2011 Q2, quarter
on quarter , and equalled 7.5% p.a. The OFZ yield
(effective MPI) rose by 0.1 percentage points at
1 The average duration of the OFZ bond index portfolio was
3.6 years in the first quarter and 3.5 years in the second
quarter of 2011.
the end of the second quarter of 2011, quarter
on quarter , to 7.5% p.a. As of the end of July, the
OFZ yields fell by 0.1 percentage points, month
on month, to 7.3% p.a. The average effective
MPI in July was also down 0.1 percentage points,
month on month, to 7.4% p.a.
In April-July 2011, the OFZ yield curve re -
mained ascending, demonstrating slight changes
in its position. By the end of July 2011, the yield
curve of government bonds shifted upward and
slightly increased its angle compared with the be-
ginning of April 2011.
22 2011 Q2
Yields in the ruble regional and corporate
bond market changed horizontally in April-July
2011. The average yields on regional bonds 2 de-
creased by 0.3 percentage points in the second
quarter of 2011, quarter on quarter , to 7.3% p.a.,
while the average yield on corporate bonds3 yields
decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 7.1% p.a.
Regional and corporate bond yields dropped by
2 The average duration of the regional bond index portfolio
was 2.8 years in the first quarter and 2.7 years in the sec -
ond quarter of 2011.
3 The average duration of the corporate bond index portfolio
was 1.7 years both in the first quarter and in the second
quarter of 2011.
0.1 percentage points and 0.2 percentage points
at the end of the second quarter of 2011, quar -
ter on quarter , to 7.3% p.a. and 7.0% p.a. re -
spectively. In July 2011, the average regional and
corporate bond yields were down 0.2 percent -
age points and 0.1 percentage points, month on
month, standing at 7.1% p.a. and 7.0% p.a. re -
spectively.
Asset prices
Downward equity price trend prevailed in the
Russian equity market in the second quarter
of 2011 amid periods of instability in the global
capital markets, downward correction of world oil
Monetary Conditions
2011 Q2 23
lurgical, machine-building and energy equities,
as well as credit institutions’ equities suffered the
largest contractions of value. Share prices in the
chemical and petrochemical industries went up
under the influence of positive corporate news.
In July, key Russian share prices moved with-
in a wide horizontal band as the price expecta -
tions of market participants remained uncertain.
Overall, however , the growth rates of the MICEX
and RTS stock indices turned out positive in that
month, supported by the upward price trend in
the world oil market. As of July 29, the MICEX
index was up 2.3%, month on month, standing
at 1,705.18 points, and the RTS index grew by
3.1% to 1,965.02 points. Share prices in the key
sectors of the Russian economy increased in July
2011, except for machine-building, metallurgy
and mining and quarrying sectors.
Monetary aggregates
From September 2010 onward, the annual
growth in ruble money supply gradually slowed
down, and this trend continued into the first six
months of 2011. The annual growth rate of the
monetary aggregate M2 was 22.7% as of July 1,
2011 (31.1% as of January 1, 2011). Seasonally
adjusted monthly rates of growth in ruble money
supply were lower in the first half of 2011 than in
the corresponding period of the previous year.
The slowdown of the annual growth rate of
ruble deposits in January-June 2011 was dem -
onstrated both by household deposits and non-
financial organisation deposits. At the same time,
in January-June 2011, the annual growth rate of
ruble household deposits was significantly higher
(averaging about 36% over the period) than the
annual growth rate of non-financial organisation
deposits (about 18% on average). As of July 1,
2011, the annual growth rate of ruble household
deposits equalled 30.1% (44.5% as of July 1,
2010) and of non-financial organisation depos -
its – 17.1% (29.8% as of July 1, 2010).
With the ruble appreciating, foreign currency
deposits dropped by 1.8% in ruble terms in the
first half of 2011 (they fell by 4.5% in the first half
of 2010). The annual growth rate of foreign cur-
rency deposits in ruble terms equalled 1.5% as of
July 1, 2011. The level of dollarisation of deposits4
4 The level of dollarisation in this case is the share of foreign
currency deposits (in ruble terms) in the broad money.
prices, and enhanced capital outflow from the do-
mestic equity market. The Russian stock indices,
MICEX and RTS, took a plunge as of the second
third of April to make partial recovery from the
fall in May, and moved without a definite trend
until late June. As of June 30, 2011, the MICEX
index dropped by 8.1%, quarter on quarter , to
1,666.59 points, and the RTS index fell by 6.7%
to 1,906.71 points. The average MICEX index
dropped by 2.8% in 2011 Q2, quarter on quar -
ter , while the average RTS index, by contrast, rose
slightly (by 0.4%) in the period under review.
Equity prices in most sectors of the Russian
economy dipped in the second quarter. Metal -
24 2011 Q2
and stood at 18.9% as of July 1, 2011. M2X
seasonally adjusted monthly rates of growth also
slowed down in the first half of 2011.
Lending contributed substantially more to
the growth of broad money in the first half of
2011. In the second quarter of 2011, a pickup of
the lending activity was the key source of broad
money growth. The considerably enhanced role
of lending in money supply is laying the ground -
work for the Bank of Russia to implement its inter-
est rate policies more effectively.
A marked drop in the growth rate of the Bank
of Russia’s net foreign assets, year on year , dimin-
ished the contribution of this factor to money
was lower in January-June 2011 than in the same
period of the previous year and measured 15.2%
as of July 1, 2011 (17.8% as of July 1, 2010).
No steady trends were observed starting the sec-
ond half of 2010 regarding net foreign currency
purchases by households through exchange of -
fices. According to Russia’s balance of payment
preliminary estimates, foreign currency outside
the banking system decreased by $3.2 billion in
the first half of 2011 (such contraction had been
greater in January-June 2010 and amounted to
$10.1 billion).
The annual rates of growth in the broad
money began to slow down in December 2010,
Monetary Conditions
2011 Q2 25
Credit aggregates
The growth of credit aggregates continued
in the second quarter of 2011. The debt on loans
extended to non-financial organisations increased
by 5.2% and the debt on loans to households
increased by 8.6%. The resulting annual rate of
growth in the total debt on loans equalled 17.8%
as of July 1, 2011, and is likely to continue grow-
ing.
Ruble-denominated loans extended to
households were the fastest growing credit ag -
gregate. Thus, the annual rate of growth in the
debt on ruble-denominated loans to resident in -
supply growth. The first six months of 2011 also
saw a changed impact of the budgetary factor on
money supply. A significant decrease in net claims
to general government from the Bank of Russia
(largely because of funds accumulated in Bank of
Russia accounts) had a containing effect on the
growth of money supply.
Aggregate money supply grew in late 2009
and in 2010 faster than demand for money, which
testified to increased inflation risks attributable to
monetary factors in the first half of 2011. Mean-
while, the current trends in monetary indicator
behaviour may create pre-requisites for a gradual
mitigation of these risks in future.
26 2011 Q2
dividuals was almost 30% as of July 1, 2011, way
up from just 1.5% a year earlier. This may indicate
the growth of the consumer confidence indicator.
Contribution of loan category of this type to the
total debt growth rate, however , was not decisive.
The key sources of increased credit supply
following the crisis were the growth of the deposit
base and of risk-free liquid assets (such as Bank
of Russia bonds) on banks’ balance sheets. But,
taking into account the continuing slowdown of
money supply growth and the planned build-up
of the internal state debt which can absorb a sig -
nificant amount of banking resources, one can as-
sume that in future banks will have a limited abil-
ity to ensure relatively high rates of credit growth.
2011 Q2 27
Bank of Russia press releases on monetary policy measures
in April-August 2011
April 2011
April 29 (extract from the press release)
The Bank of Russia External and Public Relations Department informs that the Bank of Russia Board of
Directors took a decision on April 29, 2011, to raise the refinancing rate and interest rates on some of the
Bank of Russia’s operations by 0.25 percentage points from May 3, 2011 (see the Table on Interest Rates
on Bank of Russia Operations).
This decision was made due to the persistence of high inflationary expectations exceeding the infla -
tion targets for this year , and also taking into account the ambiguous effect, which the developments in
the global financial and commodity markets may have on the Russian economy. The decision takes into
account the fact that interest rates on Bank of Russia deposit operations will continue to exert a major in-
fluence on money market rates amid a steady excess of liquidity in the banking system. Also, the efforts to
narrow the band of interest rates on Bank of Russia operations to provide and absorb liquidity are expected
to raise the efficiency of interest rate policy.
In April 2011, inflationary pressure remained high: the annualised rate of inflation stood at 9.6% as
of April 25, 2011 (9.5% in February-March 2011). The monthly growth of consumer prices, especially
the prices of some food products, continued to slow down, which testified to the gradual decrease of the
effect of price shocks in the domestic agricultural raw material market supported by the rapid growth of
world food prices. At the same time, monetary factors remained a major cause of inflationary pressure.
Basic macroeconomic indicators continued to change both ways in March 2011. Industrial output
expanded compared with February but its annual growth slightly slowed down. The unemployment rate
continued to decrease. As before, fixed capital investment demonstrated weak dynamics. At the same
time, the faster growth in retail trade turnover registered in the past few months compared with household
income, coupled with the larger volume of lending to individuals and the slower increase in household
deposits may suggest a potential decrease in the household propensity to save and may trigger higher
inflation risks.
The Bank of Russia’s further measures to adjust its monetary policy will depend on the correlation of
risks linked to the persistence of high inflationary pressure and the slowing of economic growth, and also
on the external economic environment.
The next meeting of the Bank of Russia Board of Directors to consider interest rate policy is scheduled
for May 2011.
May 2011
May 4
The Bank of Russia Department for External and Public Relations informs that pursuant to a decision
taken by the Bank of Russia Board of Directors, the Bank of Russia is to suspend signing general agree -
ments with Russian credit institutions to extend unsecured Bank of Russia loans to credit institutions from
of May 3, 2011.
28 2011 Q2
May 30 (extract from the press release)
The Bank of Russia Department for External and Public Relations informs that on May 30, 2011 the
Bank of Russia Board of Directors decided to leave unchanged the refinancing rate and interest rates on
Bank of Russia liquidity provision operations and to increase the interest rates on deposit operations by
0.25 percentage points from May 31, 2011 (see the Table on Interest Rates on Bank of Russia Opera -
tions).
The decision was made in view of the persistently high inflation expectations and risks to sustainable
economic growth. It was mindful of the fact that, given liquidity surplus in the banking sector , interest rates
on Bank of Russia deposit operations would continue to exert a crucial influence on money market rates.
In addition, the narrowing of the interest rate band on Bank of Russia operations would help reduce the
volatility of money market rates and improve the impact of interest rate policy.
Annualised inflation was 9.7% as of May 23, 2011 (9.6% in April). The acceleration of the annual
inflation rate was due to prices growing faster in April and May than in the first half of 2010 against the
backdrop of post-crisis recovery. In the meantime, consumer price growth remained relatively low dur -
ing the month. The observed acceleration of petrol price growth was of a non-monetary nature, and the
slowdown of price growth for some foodstuffs might suggest that the impact of the domestic price shock
on agricultural raw materials was withering away.
In May, the annual growth rate of money supply continued to slow down, which after a certain lag
would help bring monetary-related inflation down.
Key macroeconomic indicators in April bore out continuing sizable risks to sustainable economic
growth. The unemployment rate, including seasonally adjusted, increased. Industrial output was up com-
pared with March, but its annual growth rate again dropped. The annual investment growth rate turned
positive for the first time during the year , but remained very low. At the same time, with the growth of
retail sales outpacing the growth of household incomes in the past few months, coupled with more loans
granted to individuals and the continued slowdown of deposit growth rates, households might well be
demonstrating lower propensity to save, which factor could contribute both to enhanced economic activ-
ity and to higher inflation risks.
The Bank of Russia views the interest rate level set by the said decision taking into account the impact
of the monetary policies implemented in recent months as securing an acceptable balance between the
risks of ongoing inflationary pressures and economic slowdown in the months to come.
The next meeting of the Bank of Russia Board of Directors to consider interest rate policy is scheduled
for June 2011.
June 2011
June 30
The Bank of Russia Department for External and Public Relations informs that on June 30, 2011, the
Bank of Russia Board of Directors took a decision to leave the refinancing rate and interest rates on Bank
of Russia operations unchanged.
The decision was based on an assessment of inflation risks and risks to sustainable economic growth,
including the persisting uncertainty over external economic developments.
Annualised inflation was 9.4% as of June 27, 2011 (9.6% in May). The growth rate of consumer
prices slackened in June, month on month, which primarily was due to a retarded growth rate and a drop
in the prices of individual groups of food products.
In June, lending to households continued to increase as the growth of deposits slowed down, which
points to a potential reduction in people’s propensity to save and which may contribute both to enhanced
economic activity and to higher inflation risks. On the other hand, the retarded annual growth rate of
money supply is paving the way to lower inflation caused by monetary factors.
In May, macroeconomic indicators retained the trends of the previous months as a sign of persist -
ing risks to sustainable economic growth. Annual growth rates of industrial output contracted further as
Bank of Russia press releases on monetary policy measures
2011 Q2 29
household real disposable incomes diminished. The unemployment rate fell appreciably in May, but that
was largely due to seasonal factors. At the same time, the turnover of retail trade kept growing. Annual
growth rates of investment continued to recover after a significant slump at the beginning of the year , but
it is too early to talk about this trend as sustainable.
Given the current internal and external macroeconomic trends and the impact of the monetary poli-
cies implemented in recent months, the Bank of Russia regards the current level of interest rates as accept-
able in order to secure a balance between the risks of inflationary pressures and economic slowdown in
the months to come.
The next meeting of the Bank of Russia Board of Directors to consider monetary policy issues is sched-
uled for the beginning of August 2011.
August 2011
August 4 (extract from the press release)
The Bank of Russia Department for External and Public Relations informs that on August 4, 2011, the
Bank of Russia Board of Directors decided to leave the refinancing rate and interest rates on Bank of Russia
operations unchanged (see the Table on Interest Rates on Bank of Russia Operations).
The decision was based on an assessment of inflation risks and risks to sustainable economic growth,
including persisting uncertainty over external economic developments.
The annual inflation rate continued to fall in July and equalled 9.0% (9.4% in June). The prices of
certain groups of foodstuffs continued to contribute importantly to slowing down inflation. A favourable
outlook for this year’s grain harvest combined with the situation in the global food markets gives reason to
believe that the associated inflation risks are diminishing. The current downward trend regarding inflation
expectations may contribute to a slower inflation rate in future.
Meanwhile, the continuing trend towards slower growth of household deposits and the growth of
retail trade outpacing the growth of real incomes suggest that households might demonstrate less pro -
pensity to save, which may both contribute to improved business activity and be a source of additional
inflationary pressures.
Movements of the macroeconomic indicators in June suggested that the economic situation had
somewhat improved but there remained risks to sustainable economic growth. The industrial output index
continued to grow and its annual growth rate accelerated for the first time since the year began. The un-
employment rate went down but that was largely due to seasonal factors. Fixed asset investments contin-
ued to recover following a slump at the beginning of the year , but their annual growth rate slowing down
in June compared with May might suggest that the trend was potentially fickle. Low indicators of economic
agents’ sentiments also point to risks to sustainable growth.
Given the current internal and external macroeconomic trends and the impact of the monetary poli-
cies implemented in recent months, the Bank of Russia regards the current level of interest rates as accept-
able in order to secure a balance between inflation risks and economic slowdown risks in the months to
come.
The next meeting of the Bank of Russia Board of Directors to consider interest rate policy is scheduled
for September 2011.
30 2011 Q2
Statistical Addendum
Table 1
Consumer prices by group of goods and services
(month on month, %)
Monthly
inflation
Core
inflation
Food price
growth
Food price
growth 1
Vegetable
and fruit price
growth
Non-food
price growth
Growth in non-
food prices,
excluding petrol
prices 2
Service price
growth
January 2.4 1.3 1.4 1.1 4.7 0.7 1.0 6.3
February 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.5 4.9 1.6 1.8 1.4
March 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.4 4.5 1.4 1.6 0.6
April 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 -0.1 1.0 1.1 0.3
May 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.3 4.1 0.7 0.8 0.3
June 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.1 3.9 0.8 0.3 0.5
July 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.2 3.2 0.6 0.2 0.8
August 0.0 0.5 -0.9 0.4 -11.0 0.6 0.4 0.4
September 0.0 0.5 -0.8 0.4 -11.5 0.7 0.6 0.1
October 0.0 0.3 -0.5 0.0 -6.2 0.6 0.7 -0.1
November 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.1
December 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 3.0 0.2 0.3 0.4
Full year (December on December) 8.8 8.3 6.1 6.9 -1.7 9.7 9.7 11.6
January 1.6 0.5 1.4 0.8 7.2 0.2 0.3 3.9
February 0.9 0.5 1.3 0.8 5.6 0.3 0.3 1.0
March 0.6 0.5 1.0 0.7 4.2 0.4 0.4 0.4
April 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.2
May 0.5 0.1 0.7 -0.1 7.2 0.4 0.3 0.4
June 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.0 4.6 0.2 0.2 0.4
July 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 -0.6 0.3 0.2 0.6
August 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 -1.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
September 0.8 1.1 1.6 1.8 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.0
October 0.5 0.8 0.7 1.0 -1.8 0.6 0.7 0.0
November 0.8 0.7 1.4 1.0 4.0 0.7 0.7 0.2
December 1.1 0.7 2.1 1.2 8.6 0.4 0.4 0.4
Full year (December on December) 8.8 6.6 12.9 9.4 45.6 5.0 4.9 8.1
January 2.4 1.1 2.6 1.6 11.2 0.9 0.6 4.1
February 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.0 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.8
March 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.4 0.5 0.6 0.3
April 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 -1.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
May 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.2 -1.6 0.8 0.4 0.7
June 0.2 0.3 -0.2 0.1 -3.2 0.4 0.3 0.7
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Bank of Russia estimate.
Note. T ables 1 to 7 are based on Rosstat data and Bank of Russia calculations.
Statistical Addendum
2011 Q2 31
Table 2
Consumer prices by group of goods and services
(since start of year on accrual basis, %)
Monthly
inflation
Core
inflation
Food price
growth
Food price
growth 1
Vegetable
and fruit price
growth
Non-food
price growth
Growth in non-
food prices,
excluding petrol
prices 2
Service price
growth
January 2.4 1.3 1.4 1.1 4.7 0.7 1.0 6.3
February 4.1 2.9 3.3 2.6 9.8 2.3 2.8 7.8
March 5.4 4.3 5.0 4.0 14.7 3.8 4.5 8.5
April 6.2 5.2 5.8 4.8 14.6 4.8 5.7 8.7
May 6.8 5.7 6.5 5.1 19.3 5.5 6.5 9.1
June 7.4 6.0 7.0 5.2 24.0 6.3 6.9 9.6
July 8.1 6.3 7.6 5.4 28.0 7.0 7.1 10.5
August 8.1 6.8 6.6 5.8 14.0 7.6 7.6 10.9
September 8.1 7.3 5.8 6.3 0.8 8.3 8.2 11.0
October 8.1 7.6 5.2 6.3 -5.4 9.0 9.0 10.9
November 8.4 8.0 5.5 6.5 -4.5 9.4 9.4 11.1
December 8.8 8.3 6.1 6.9 -1.7 9.7 9.7 11.6
January 1.6 0.5 1.4 0.8 7.2 0.2 0.3 3.9
February 2.5 1.0 2.7 1.6 13.2 0.5 0.6 5.0
March 3.2 1.5 3.8 2.3 18.0 0.9 1.0 5.4
April 3.5 1.7 4.1 2.5 19.3 1.3 1.3 5.6
May 4.0 1.8 4.8 2.4 27.9 1.7 1.7 6.0
June 4.4 2.0 5.4 2.4 33.8 1.9 1.9 6.4
July 4.8 2.4 5.7 2.8 32.9 2.2 2.1 7.0
August 5.4 3.1 6.6 4.1 31.0 2.5 2.5 7.3
September 6.2 4.3 8.4 5.9 31.3 3.1 3.1 7.4
October 6.8 5.1 9.1 7.0 28.9 3.8 3.8 7.4
November 7.6 5.8 10.6 8.1 34.0 4.5 4.5 7.6
December 8.8 6.6 12.9 9.4 45.6 5.0 4.9 8.1
January 2.4 1.1 2.6 1.6 11.2 0.9 0.6 4.1
February 3.2 1.8 3.9 2.6 14.2 1.2 1.1 4.9
March 3.8 2.5 4.8 3.5 15.8 1.7 1.7 5.2
April 4.3 3.0 5.2 4.1 14.0 2.2 2.1 5.7
May 4.8 3.4 5.2 4.4 12.2 3.0 2.6 6.5
June 5.0 3.8 5.0 4.5 8.7 3.5 2.9 7.2
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Bank of Russia estimate.
32 2011 Q2
Table 3
Consumer prices by group of goods and services
(month on corresponding month of previous year, %)
Monthly
inflation
Core
inflation 1
Food price
growth
Food price
growth 2
Vegetable
and fruit price
growth
Non-food
price growth
Growth in non-
food prices,
excluding petrol
prices 1
Service price
growth
January 13.4 13.9 15.9 17.3 4.1 8.1 8.9 16.9
February 13.9 14.6 16.1 17.6 3.9 9.2 10.2 17.0
March 14.0 14.9 15.8 17.5 2.5 9.9 11.2 17.0
April 13.2 14.4 14.1 16.3 -3.0 10.0 11.7 16.1
May 12.3 13.6 12.5 14.9 -5.1 9.9 11.9 15.3
June 11.9 12.9 11.9 13.7 -1.8 9.9 11.7 14.6
July 12.0 12.3 12.4 12.7 8.7 9.8 11.4 14.5
August 11.6 11.7 11.6 11.8 9.1 9.9 11.2 13.9
September 10.7 10.8 9.9 10.6 3.2 9.9 11.0 12.8
October 9.7 9.6 7.6 8.7 -2.8 9.6 10.6 12.7
November 9.1 8.8 6.6 7.6 -2.9 9.6 10.0 12.1
December 8.8 8.3 6.1 6.9 -1.7 9.7 9.7 11.6
January 8.0 7.5 6.1 6.6 0.7 9.1 9.0 9.1
February 7.2 6.3 5.5 5.8 1.4 7.7 7.4 8.7
March 6.5 5.4 4.8 5.1 1.1 6.6 6.1 8.4
April 6.0 4.8 4.4 4.5 2.4 5.9 5.2 8.4
May 6.0 4.4 4.4 4.1 5.4 5.7 4.7 8.4
June 5.8 4.3 4.5 4.0 6.1 5.1 4.6 8.4
July 5.5 4.4 4.2 4.2 2.1 4.8 4.6 8.2
August 6.1 4.7 6.1 5.1 13.1 4.5 4.5 8.0
September 7.0 5.3 8.7 6.5 28.0 4.4 4.6 8.0
October 7.5 5.8 10.0 7.6 33.9 4.4 4.5 8.1
November 8.1 6.2 11.2 8.5 38.0 4.7 4.8 8.1
December 8.8 6.6 12.9 9.4 45.6 5.0 4.9 8.1
January 9.6 7.2 14.2 10.2 51.1 5.6 5.2 8.2
February 9.5 7.4 14.2 10.5 46.9 5.6 5.4 7.9
March 9.5 7.7 14.1 10.8 42.9 5.8 5.6 7.9
April 9.6 8.0 14.1 11.2 39.1 5.9 5.8 8.2
May 9.6 8.3 13.4 11.6 27.7 6.3 5.9 8.6
June 9.4 8.4 12.5 11.7 18.3 6.6 6.0 8.8
1 Bank of Russia estimate.
2 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
Statistical Addendum
2011 Q2 33
Table 4
Inflation growth over period since start of year due to price changes
by group of goods and services (percentage points)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food
products
Paid
services
Vegetables and
fruit
Inflation over
period, %
Core
inflation
Non-core
inflation 2
January 0.4 0.3 1.6 0.2 2.4 1.0 1.4
February 0.9 0.9 2.0 0.4 4.1 2.4 1.7
March 1.4 1.4 2.1 0.5 5.4 3.5 2.0
April 1.6 1.8 2.2 0.5 6.2 4.2 2.0
May 1.8 2.1 2.3 0.7 6.8 4.6 2.2
June 1.8 2.4 2.4 0.9 7.4 4.8 2.6
July 1.9 2.6 2.6 1.0 8.1 5.1 3.0
August 2.0 2.9 2.7 0.5 8.1 5.5 2.6
September 2.1 3.1 2.8 0.0 8.1 5.9 2.1
October 2.1 3.4 2.7 -0.2 8.1 6.1 1.9
November 2.2 3.5 2.8 -0.2 8.4 6.4 1.9
December 2.4 3.6 2.9 -0.1 8.8 6.7 2.1
January 0.3 0.1 1.0 0.3 1.6 0.4 1.2
February 0.6 0.2 1.3 0.5 2.5 0.8 1.7
March 0.8 0.3 1.4 0.6 3.2 1.2 2.0
April 0.9 0.5 1.4 0.7 3.5 1.4 2.1
May 0.8 0.6 1.5 1.0 4.0 1.5 2.5
June 0.8 0.7 1.7 1.2 4.4 1.6 2.8
July 1.0 0.8 1.8 1.2 4.8 1.9 2.8
August 1.4 0.9 1.9 1.1 5.4 2.5 2.8
September 2.0 1.1 1.9 1.1 6.2 3.5 2.8
October 2.4 1.4 1.9 1.0 6.8 4.1 2.7
November 2.8 1.6 2.0 1.2 7.6 4.7 2.9
December 3.3 1.8 2.1 1.7 8.8 5.3 3.5
January 0.5 0.3 1.1 0.4 2.4 0.8 1.5
February 0.9 0.4 1.3 0.6 3.2 1.4 1.7
March 1.2 0.6 1.3 0.7 3.8 2.0 1.8
April 1.4 0.8 1.5 0.6 4.3 2.4 1.8
May 1.5 1.1 1.7 0.5 4.8 2.7 2.0
June 1.6 1.2 1.9 0.4 5.0 3.0 2.0
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
34 2011 Q2
Table 5
Monthly inflation growth due to price changes
by group of goods and services (percentage points)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food
products
Paid
services
Vegetables
and fruit
Inflation over
period, %
Core
inflation
Non-core
inflation 2
January 0.4 0.3 1.6 0.2 2.4 1.0 1.4
February 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.7 1.3 0.3
March 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 1.3 1.1 0.2
April 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.0
May 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2
June 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.4
July 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.4
August 3 0.0
September 3 0.0
October 3 0.0
November 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0
December 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1
January 0.3 0.1 1.0 0.3 1.6 0.4 1.2
February 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.5
March 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.3
April 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1
May 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.4
June 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3
July 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.1
August 0.4 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0
September 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.9 -0.1
October 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.5 0.6 -0.1
November 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.3
December 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.6 0.5
January 0.5 0.3 1.1 0.4 2.4 0.8 1.5
February 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.2
March 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1
April 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0
May 0.1 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.5 0.3 0.2
June 0.0 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
3 Owing to zero inflation in August-October 2009, estimates may vary.
Statistical Addendum
2011 Q2 35
Table 6
Contribution to inflation growth over period since start of year
by group of goods and services (%)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food products Paid services Vegetables and fruit Core inflation Non-core inflation 2
January 15.6 11.3 66.2 7.0 42.3 57.7
February 22.1 21.5 47.9 8.6 57.7 42.3
March 25.3 26.1 38.9 9.7 64.0 36.0
April 26.7 29.3 35.5 8.5 67.9 32.1
May 25.9 30.5 33.4 10.2 67.5 32.5
June 24.1 31.9 32.4 11.6 65.0 35.0
July 23.0 32.3 32.3 12.4 62.6 37.4
August 24.7 35.3 33.8 6.2 67.6 32.4
September 26.7 38.7 34.2 0.4 73.3 26.7
October 26.6 41.9 33.8 -2.4 76.3 23.7
November 26.7 42.2 33.0 -1.9 76.7 23.3
December 26.7 41.1 32.9 -0.7 76.4 23.6
January 17.3 4.7 61.6 16.3 25.6 74.4
February 22.2 7.3 51.4 19.1 31.6 68.4
March 25.2 10.4 43.9 20.6 37.4 62.6
April 25.0 13.2 41.7 20.2 39.8 60.2
May 20.9 15.3 38.5 25.3 37.2 62.8
June 19.0 15.8 37.5 27.7 37.2 62.8
July 20.5 16.6 38.0 24.9 40.4 59.6
August 26.4 17.3 35.4 20.9 47.1 52.9
September 32.9 18.3 30.6 18.2 55.5 44.5
October 35.9 20.5 28.2 15.5 60.5 39.5
November 36.7 21.6 25.7 16.1 61.5 38.5
December 37.0 20.6 23.7 18.8 60.3 39.7
January 23.2 13.4 45.8 17.7 35.5 64.5
February 28.2 13.0 40.0 18.8 45.1 54.9
March 31.9 15.5 35.3 17.3 52.5 47.5
April 33.4 18.1 34.7 13.7 56.9 43.1
May 31.7 22.4 35.1 10.7 57.5 42.5
June 31.1 24.6 37.1 7.3 60.1 39.9
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
36 2011 Q2
Table 7
Contribution to monthly inflation growth
by group of goods and services (%)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food products Paid services Vegetables and fruit Core inflation Non-core inflation 2
January 15.6 11.3 66.2 7.0 42.3 57.7
February 31.2 35.9 22.0 10.9 79.5 20.5
March 35.2 40.0 11.7 13.1 83.0 17.0
April 37.5 53.9 9.3 -0.7 97.1 2.9
May 17.1 42.5 13.3 27.1 62.6 37.4
June 5.7 46.9 20.7 26.8 38.4 61.6
July 10.8 35.8 31.6 21.8 35.3 64.7
August 3
September 3
October 3
November 28.1 49.4 12.3 10.2 87.7 12.3
December 27.3 19.3 30.1 23.3 70.2 29.8
January 17.3 4.7 61.6 16.3 25.6 74.4
February 30.6 11.7 33.6 24.1 42.2 57.8
March 36.4 22.1 15.4 26.0 59.6 40.4
April 23.4 42.8 18.0 15.8 65.3 34.7
May -5.6 29.1 18.0 58.5 20.5 79.5
June 0.9 20.8 28.1 50.2 36.6 63.4
July 38.7 26.1 43.8 -8.5 79.6 20.4
August 75.8 22.8 13.2 -11.8 102.9 -2.9
September 72.6 25.0 1.4 1.0 107.1 -7.1
October 71.1 46.0 -0.8 -16.3 119.3 -19.3
November 42.4 30.1 6.3 21.2 68.8 31.2
December 38.9 14.1 10.7 36.3 52.4 47.6
January 23.2 13.4 45.8 17.7 35.5 64.5
February 43.0 11.8 22.7 22.4 73.9 26.1
March 50.0 27.6 12.4 10.0 88.2 11.8
April 46.2 40.3 30.2 -16.7 94.5 5.5
May 17.6 58.8 38.2 -14.6 62.2 37.8
June 17.4 69.6 75.9 -62.9 111.0 -11.0
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
3 Owing to zero inflation in August-October 2009, estimates may vary.
Statistical Addendum
2011 Q2 37
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Macroeconomic indicators
GDP
over period since start of year, billion rubles
2009 8,306 17,528 27,967 38,786
2010 9,572 20,195 31,968 44,939
2011 11,410
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2009 90.8 … … 92.2
2010 103.5 104.3 103.9 104.0
2011 104.1 103.7
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2009 90.8 88.8 91.4 97.4
2010 103.5 105.0 103.1 104.5
2011 104.1 103.4
Industrial output indices
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2009 84.5 86.4 90.4 101.8
2010 109.5 110.9 106.4 106.5
2011 105.9 104.8
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2009 84.5 85.5 87.1 90.7
2010 109.5 110.2 108.9 108.2
2011 105.9 105.3
Agricultural output
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2009 102.2 100.7 98.9 105.1
2010 103.6 102.3 80.3 91.8
2011 100.7 100.6
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2009 102.2 … … 101.4
2010 103.6 102.8 88.3 88.1
2011 100.7 100.7
Fixed capital investment
over period since start of year, billion rubles
2009 1,224.3 2,946.4 5,007.4 7,976.0
2010 1,242.6 3,205.1 5,566.2 9,151.4
2011 1,353.0 3,596.3
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2009 82.0 79.1 82.3 90.7
2010 95.2 105.6 105.3 111.1
2011 99.2 104.9
Retail trade turnover
over period since start of year, billion rubles
2009 3,327.2 6,836.5 10,521.3 14,584.7
2010 3,625.7 7,560.2 11,764.0 16,468.6
2011 4,173.2 8,728.1
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2009 100.5 94.8 91.2 94.3
2010 102.2 106.9 108.4 107.4
2011 105.0 105.6
Federal budget on accrual
basis, as of end of period
revenue
billion rubles
2009 1,732.7 3,172.2 5,114.4 7,337.8
2010 1,954.9 3,997.9 6,008.6 8,305.4
2011 2,392.8 5,306.4 1
as % of GDP
2009 20.9 18.1 18.3 18.9
2010 20.4 19.8 18.8 18.5
2011 21.0 22.0 1
expenditure
billion rubles
2009 1,762.4 3,893.8 6,441.7 9,660.1
2010 2,199.5 4,386.2 6,701.2 10,117.4
2011 2,214.7 4,602.9 1
as % of GDP
2009 21.2 22.2 23.0 24.9
2010 23.0 21.7 21.0 22.5
2011 19.4 19.1 1
surplus(+)/
deficit(-)
billion rubles
2009 -29.7 -721.7 -1,327.2 -2,322.3
2010 -244.6 -388.3 -692.6 -1,812.0
2011 178.0 703.5 1
as % of GDP
2009 -0.4 -4.1 -4.7 -6.0
2010 -2.6 -1.9 -2.2 -4.0
2011 1.6 2.9 1
General government budget
on accrual basis, as of end
of period
revenue
billion rubles
2009 3,033.5 6,042.7 9,555.0 13,599.7
2010 3,463.1 7,603.5 11,419.4 16,031.9
2011 4,392.5 9,885.1 1
as % of GDP
2009 36.5 34.5 34.2 35.1
2010 36.2 37.6 35.7 35.7
2011 38.5 41.0 1
expenditure
billion rubles
2009 2,807.1 6,619.7 10,503.9 16,048.3
2010 3,220.7 7,331.2 11,309.8 17,616.6
2011 3,575.4 8,138.7 1
as % of GDP
2009 33.8 37.8 37.6 41.4
2010 33.6 36.3 35.4 39.2
2011 31.3 33.8 1
surplus(+)/
deficit(-)
billion rubles
2009 226.4 -577.0 -948.9 -2,448.6
2010 242.4 272.3 109.7 -1,584.6
2011 817.0 1,746.4 1
as % of GDP
2009 2.7 -3.3 -3.4 -6.3
2010 2.5 1.3 0.3 -3.5
2011 7.2 7.3 1
Table 8
Russia’s key macroeconomic and financial indicators
Note. T able 8 is based on data compiled by the Bank of Russia, the Federal State Statistics Service, the Ministry of Finance of the
Russian Federation and the Federal Treasury.
38 2011 Q2
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Socio-economic indicators
Nominal imputed average
monthly per employee wage
rubles
2009 17,441 18,419 18,673 20,670
2010 19,485 20,809 21,031 23,491
2011 21,354 23,353
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2009 112.8 108.0 105.7 108.4
2010 110.5 112.4 111.6 112.7
2011 111.2 113.1
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2009 112.8 … … 107.8
2010 110.5 111.5 111.5 112.4
2011 111.2 112.2
Real imputed average monthly per employee wage, as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2009 99.2 96.1 94.8 99.3
2010 103.1 106.1 105.1 104.2
2011 101.6 103.2
Household money income (per capita monthly average), rubles
2009 14,009.3 16,921.1 16,656.8 19,761.3
2010 15,996.3 18,582.1 18,493.9 21,997.1
2011 17,540.8 19,923.0
Household real disposable
money income
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2009 100.7 102.9 96.3 108.0
2010 107.3 103.7 104.5 102.1
2011 99.8 97.5
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2009 100.7 … … 102.0
2010 107.3 105.3 105.0 104.2
2011 99.8 98.6
Household spending, as % of
income
purchase of goods and payment for services
2009 76.6 67.1 71.2 65.0
2010 73.3 68.3 72.9 67.3
2011 79.0 73.7
compulsory payments and contributions
2009 11.2 10.4 10.9 9.9
2010 9.5 9.9 10.2 10.3
2011 9.7 10.1
growth in savings
2009 8.3 16.6 12.3 17.5
2010 15.7 15.2 11.6 14.8
2011 10.2 10.3
purchase of foreign currency
2009 10.2 3.5 6.0 3.5
2010 3.2 3.2 4.2 4.0
2011 3.9 4.0
cash on hand
2009 -6.3 2.4 -0.4 4.1
2010 -1.7 3.4 1.1 3.6
2011 -2.8 1.9
Average imputed pension, total, rubles
2009 4,614 5,151 5,330 5,670
2010 7,126 7,580 7,596 7,604
2011 8,011 8,254
Real imputed pension
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2009 106.1 113.3 109.1 114.2
2010 144.1 138.9 134.3 124.1
2011 102.7 99.4
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2009 106.1 … … 110.7
2010 144.1 141.3 138.8 134.8
2011 102.7 101.0
Total number of unemployed
(calculated using ILO
methodology)
million
2009 6.8 6.5 6.0 6.1
2010 6.6 5.6 5.2 5.2
2011 5.6 5.0
as % of economically active population
2009 9.1 8.6 7.8 8.0
2010 8.8 7.4 6.8 6.9
2011 7.5 6.6
Table 8 (continued)
Statistical Addendum
2011 Q2 39
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Foreign economic activity indicators
Price of Urals crude, over period since start of
year
$/barrel
2009 43.2 50.5 56.3 60.7
2010 75.0 75.8 75.8 78.2
2011 102.6 108.3
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2009 46.1 48.0 52.3 64.6
2010 173.7 150.1 134.7 128.9
2011 136.8 142.7
Exports of goods, over period since start of year
$ billion
2009 57.3 125.4 207.8 303.4
2010 92.2 189.9 287.5 400.4
2011 114.2 249.5 2
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2009 52.0 52.9 55.6 64.3
2010 161.1 151.5 138.4 132.0
2011 123.8 131.4 2
Imports of goods, over period since start of year
$ billion
2009 38.5 82.4 131.5 191.8
2010 45.7 103.9 172.3 248.7
2011 64.9 147.8 2
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2009 63.9 60.7 60.1 65.7
2010 118.8 126.0 131.1 129.7
2011 141.9 142.3 2
Current account balance (over period since start of year), $ billion
2009 9.7 17.6 32.7 48.6
2010 33.5 52.1 57.7 70.6
2011 32.4 57.6 2
Private sector net capital outflow (inflow) (over period since start of year), $ billion
2009 -35.0 -31.4 -64.9 -56.1
2010 -14.9 -11.5 -14.5 -34.0
2011 -21.3 -31.2 2
Foreign investment in Russia’s non-financial sector
(Rosstat data), over period since start of year
$ billion
2009 12.0 32.2 54.7 81.9
2010 13.1 30.4 47.5 114.7
2011 44.3
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2009 69.7 69.1 72.2 79.0
2010 109.3 94.5 86.8 140.1
2011 3.4 times
of which:
direct
$ billion
2009 3.2 6.1 10.0 15.9
2010 2.6 5.4 8.2 13.8
2011 3.9
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2009 57.0 55.0 51.9 58.9
2010 82.4 89.0 82.2 86.8
2011 148.3
portfolio
$ billion
2009 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.9
2010 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.1
2011 0.1
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2009 93.5 74.9 78.6 62.3
2010 2.5 times 81.1 85.0 121.9
2011 41.8
other
$ billion
2009 8.7 25.2 43.7 65.1
2010 10.2 24.3 38.4 99.9
2011 40.3
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2009 75.6 73.5 79.1 86.5
2010 117.1 96.2 87.8 153.3
2011 3.9 times
Russia’s international reserves (as of end of period), $ billion
2009 383.8 412.5 413.4 439.5
2010 447.4 461.2 490.1 479.4
2011 502.5 524.5
Real ruble exchange rate indices (last month of
quarter), growth as % of December of previous
year 3
ruble vs. US dollar
2009 -15.4 -5.0 -3.9 -0.4
2010 3.6 -0.7 2.0 4.0
2011 10.5 12.4
ruble vs. euro
2009 -12.0 -7.0 -9.0 -6.5
2010 11.7 18.6 14.5 14.5
2011 5.2 4.6
effective rate
2009 -10.0 -4.2 -5.6 -3.9
2010 7.4 9.7 6.8 6.9
2011 6.9 8.4
Table 8 (continued)
40 2011 Q2
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Financial market indicators (including Sberbank interest rates)
Average for period
Overnight interbank credit
rate, % p.a.
in rubles
2009 11.6 7.7 7.1 5.5
2010 4.2 3.1 2.6 2.9
2011 2.8 3.6
in US dollars
2009 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
2010 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
2011 0.2 0.2
OFZ yields, % p.a. 4
2009 10.5 10.3 10.6 9.1
2010 7.9 7.4 7.3 7.4
2011 7.5 7.5
Interest rate on household
time deposits, % p.a.
up to 1 year in rubles
2009 10.0 10.8 10.7 10.2
2010 8.5 7.1 6.0 5.6
2011 5.3 5.1
over 1 year in rubles
2009 10.0 10.3 9.3 9.2
2010 7.7 6.2 5.3 4.8
2011 5.6 5.6
up to 1 year in US dollars
2009 6.0 5.3 5.5 5.2
2010 4.3 3.7 3.6 3.7
2011 3.5 3.1
over 1 year in US dollars
2009 6.5 6.1 5.7 5.5
2010 4.9 4.8 4.4 4.7
2011 4.5 4.6
Interest rate on credit to non-
financial organisations, % p.a.
up to 1 year in rubles
2009 16.6 15.8 14.9 13.9
2010 12.8 11.4 10.0 9.1
2011 8.7 8.3
over 1 year in rubles
2009 15.1 16.2 15.8 14.7
2010 13.9 12.3 11.4 10.5
2011 10.6 10.5
up to 1 year in US dollars
2009 10.7 10.1 10.0 9.3
2010 8.3 7.5 6.9 6.1
2011 6.2 4.4
over 1 year in US dollars
2009 12.7 11.6 10.7 9.0
2010 10.3 8.8 7.4 8.0
2011 7.3 7.3
Interest rate on ruble-denominated promissory notes discounted by banks, % p.a. 2009 15.7 14.3 14.0 11.8
Interest rate on ruble-denominated promissory notes issued by non-financial organisations and discounted
by credit institutions, % p.a. 5
2010 14.1 11.6 10.8 10.2
2011 8.4 10.0
Interest rate on ruble-denominated promissory notes issued by credit institutions and discounted by cred-
it institutions, % p.a. 5
2010 9.3 7.8 7.4 7.5
2011 7.4 7.5
MICEX rate in «tomorrow» trades, ruble/US dollar
2009 34.4761 32.2032 31.3160 29.4737
2010 29.8318 30.2891 30.6072 30.7248
2011 29.1281 27.9951
As of end of quarter
RTS index, points
2009 689.63 987.02 1,254.52 1,444.61
2010 1,572.48 1,339.35 1,507.66 1,770.28
2011 2,044.20 1,906.71
Refinancing rate, % p.a.
2009 13.00 11.50 10.00 8.75
2010 8.25 7.75 7.75 7.75
2011 8.00 8.25
Table 8 (continued)
Statistical Addendum
2011 Q2 41
Table 8 (end)
Year 1.01 1.04 1.07 1.10
Monetary indicators
M0, billion rubles
2009 3,794.8 3,278.3 3,522.5 3,485.6
2010 4,038.1 3,986.1 4,367.7 4,524.5
2011 5,062.7 4,916.4 5,189.6
M2, billion rubles
2009 12,975.9 11,581.6 12,650.5 13,101.9
2010 15,267.6 15,639.4 16,900.9 17,690.2
2011 20,011.9 19,817.1 20,742.6
Broad money, billion rubles
2009 16,276.7 15,810.4 16,579.8 17,004.5
2010 19,095.8 19,309.7 20,557.1 21,318.6
2011 23,791.2 23,639.3 24,452.4 1
Net foreign assets, billion rubles
2009 12,197.9 12,884.3 13,049.9 13,238.9
2010 13,942.7 13,816.0 14,814.0 15,119.3
2011 15,041.2 15,030.6 15,606.8 1
Domestic claims, billion rubles
2009 10,078.2 9,994.9 10,864.9 11,539.1
2010 13,241.8 13,460.4 14,097.3 15,003.0
2011 17,468.2 17,005.1 17,234.7 1
Broad monetary base, billion rubles
2009 5,578.7 4,298.8 4,967.6 4,803.7
2010 6,467.3 6,363.9 7,195.0 7,126.0
2011 8,190.3 7,514.2 7,410.3
Balances of correspondent accounts, billion rubles
2009 1,027.6 431.7 471.4 545.4
2010 900.3 579.5 603.6 590.0
2011 994.7 597.2 786.5
Monetisation of the economy (by M2 aggregate), %
2009 32.1 31.9 32.2 32.5
2010 32.8 33.6 35.0 36.5
2011 37.5 38.2 38.7 1
Money multiplier
by broad monetary base
2009 2.33 2.69 2.55 2.73
2010 2.36 2.46 2.35 2.48
2011 2.44 2.63 2.80
change since start of year, %
2009 -0.4 6 15.8 9.5 17.3
2010 1.5 6 4.1 -0.5 5.2
2011 3.5 6 7.9 14.6
Foreign exchange rates
rubles per US dollar
2009 29.39 33.90 31.04 30.01
2010 30.19 29.50 31.26 30.51
2011 30.35 28.52 27.87
rubles per euro
2009 41.43 44.89 43.85 43.89
2010 43.46 39.57 38.21 41.44
2011 40.49 40.39 40.42
1 Preliminary data.
2 Estimate.
3 (+) signifies appreciation of the ruble, (-) signifies depreciation of the ruble.
4 OFZ effective market portfolio indicator.
5 Owing to the coming into force of Bank of Russia Instruction No. 2332-U of November 12, 2009, the set of indicators used to characterise credit institutions’ interest rate policy in the
promissory note market changed from January 2010. Specifically, the single yield indicator for the promissory notes discounted by banks has been replaced by two indicators: the yield
indicator for promissory notes issued by credit institutions and the yield indicator for promissory notes issued by non-financial organisations. These indicators are calculated only for
operations with promissory notes denominated in Russian rubles.
6 Relative to beginning of previous year.
42 2011 Q2
Table 9
Bank of Russia interest rates1 in January-July 2011 (% p.a.)
Purpose Type of Instrument Instrument Period
Interest rate, % p.a.
From 1.01.11
to 27.02.11
From 28.02.11
to 2.05.11
From 3.05.11
to 30.05.11 From 31.05.11
Providing liquidity
Continuous operations
(fixed interest rates)
Overnight loans2 1 day 7.75 8.00 8.25 8.25
Repo, Lombard loans 1 day 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75
Lombard loans
7 days 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75
30 days3 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75
Repo
7 days3 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75
12 months3 7.50 7.75 8.00 8.00
Loans secured by «non-
market» assets or guarantees4
up to 90 days 6.75 7.00 7.25 7.25
from 91 to 180 days3 7.25 7.50 7.75 7.75
from 181 to 365 days3 7.75 8.00 8.25 8.25
Open market operations
(minimum interest rates)
Repo auctions 1 day 5.00 5.25 5.50 5.50
Repo auctions, Lombard loan
auctions
7 days 5.00 5.25 5.50 5.50
3 months 6.50 6.75 7.00 7.00
6 months3 7.00 7.25 7.50 7.50
12 months3 7.50 7.75 8.00 8.00
«Currency swap» operations5 1 day 7.75 8.00 8.25 8.25
Absorbing liquidity
Continuous operations
(fixed interest rates) Deposit operations
demand, 1 day 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50
7 days 3.00 3.00 3.25 3.50
Open market operations
(minimum interest rates) Deposit auctions
1 month 5.00 5.00 5.25 5.50
3 months3 6.00 6.00 6.25 6.50
For reference:
Refinancing rate 7.75 8.00 8.25 8.25
1 Interest rates set by the Bank of Russia Board of Directors.
2 Provided pursuant to Bank of Russia Regulations No. 236-P of August 4, 2003 and No. 312-P of November 12, 2007.
3 At the moment the operations are suspended.
4 Issue of loans secured by guarantees is at the moment suspended.
5 Interest rate to determine the minimum offered swap difference.
Statistical Addendum
2011 Q2 43
Table 10
Credit institutions’ required reserve ratios (from July 1, 2007 to October 31, 2009, %)
Required reserve ratio for bank obligations
to non-resident banks in Russian
and foreign currency
Required reserve ratio for obligations
to individuals in Russian currency
Required reserve ratio for other bank
obligations in Russian and foreign currency
July 1, 2007—October 10, 2007 4.5 4.0 4.5
October 11, 2007—January 14, 2008 3.5 3.0 3.5
January 15, 2008—February 29, 2008 4.5 4.0 4.5
March 1, 2008—June 30, 2008 5.5 4.5 5.0
July 1, 2008—August 31, 2008 7.0 5.0 5.5
September 1, 2008—September 17, 2008 8.5 5.5 6.0
September 18, 2008—October 14, 2008 4.5 1.5 2.0
October 15, 2008—April 30, 2009 0.5 0.5 0.5
May 1, 2009—May 31, 2009 1.0 1.0 1.0
June 1, 2009—June 30, 2009 1.5 1.5 1.5
July 1, 2009—July 31, 2009 2.0 2.0 2.0
August 1, 2009—October 31, 2009 2.5 2.5 2.5
Table 11
Credit institutions’ required reserve ratios
(from November 1, 2009 up to present, %)
Required reserve ratio for
bank obligations to non-
resident corporates
in Russian currency
Required reserve ratio for
bank obligations to non-
resident corporates
in foreign currency
Required reserve ratio for
obligations to individuals
in Russian currency
Required reserve ratio for
obligations to individuals
in foreign currency
Required reserve ratio for
other bank obligations
in Russian currency
Required reserve ratio for
other bank obligations
in foreign currency
November 1, 2009—
January 31, 2011 2.5
February 1, 2011—
February 28, 2011 3.5 3.0 3.0
March 1, 2011—
March 31, 2011 4.5 3.5 3.5
April 1, 2011— 5.5 4.0 4.0
© The Central Bank of the Russian Federation, 2011
Research and Information Department