CBR Quarterly Inflation Review - Q2 2007
Central bank: cbr | Type: quarterly_review | Date: 2007-06-30

THE CENTRAL BANK
OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
(BANK OF RUSSIA)
Quarterly
Inflation
Review
2007 Q2
Research and Information Department
Introduction........................................................... 1
Inflation Dynamics ................................................... 2
Monetary Conditions.............................................. 13
Statistical Addendum ............................................. 21
The electronic version of Quarterly Inflation Review is available on the Bank of Russia's website :

12007 Q2
Inflation Dynamics
Introduction
Consumer price growth continued to slow
down in Russia in the first half of 2007. In Janu-
ary-June, inflation stood at 5.7% as against 6.2%
in the first half of 2006. The price slowdown was
due to the goods included in the calculation of the
core consumer price index, especially food prod-
ucts. Excluding vegetable and fruit prices, food
prices rose 2.7% in January-June, the smallest
price increase for this group of products since
1999. At the same time, growth in the prices of
goods and services not included in the core infla-
tion calculation accelerated from 14.0% in the first
half of 2006 to 15.4% in January-June 2007,
mainly due to the quickening of growth in veg-
etable and fruit prices. In addition, estimates show
that growth in administered prices and rates was
higher than in the first half of 2006 as a result of
more significant rise in communications fees and
passenger transport fares.
In April and May 2007, as supply far sur-
passed demand on the domestic foreign exchange
market, the Bank of Russia increased ruble inter-
ventions significantly to prevent the excess ruble’s
appreciation. To ease the inflationary pressure of
money supply growth, the Bank of Russia took
steps to sterilise currency interventions. The ma-
jor sterilisation instruments it used were the Bank
of Russia bond operations and deposit operations.
To contain money supply growth, the Bank of
Russia continued to raise interest rates on opera-
tions to absorb liquidity. At the same time, it cut
the refinance rate to 10% and the interest rates
on overnight loans and collateralised and guaran-
teed loans, further narrowing the effective inter-
est rate band. In addition, on July 1, 2007, it raised
required reserve ratios for credit institutions. A
large part of aggregate banking sector liquidity,
which resulted from significant growth in inter-
national reserves, was absorbed by the Russian
Government’s Stabilisation Fund (hereinafter re-
ferred to as the Stabilisation Fund).
Despite the use of the liquidity absorption
measures, M2 growth exceeded the forecast for
growth in the demand for money in 2007, written
down in the Guidelines for the Single State Mon-
etary Policy in 2008 (37%-39%) as well as the
revised estimate of growth in the demand for
money (39%-42%), based on more rapid eco-
nomic growth. From the second half of 2006, the
growth rate of money supply (M2 aggregate) ex-
ceeded an annualised 40.0% and stood at 53.3%
as of July 1, 2007. The expansion of the broad
monetary base as of the same date was 56.3%.
Meanwhile, the accelerated growth of the money
supply was largely due to short-term transactional
factors, which will hardly put on additional infla-
tionary pressure.
Higher demand for the national currency,
due mostly to the slowing of the velocity of money
caused by the de-dollarisation, the expansion of
the share of the savings component and a de-
creased share of cash in the structure of the ruble
supply, lessens the inflationary consequences of
money supply growth.
2007 Q2
Consumer price inflation (%)
Growth (June 2007
on December 2006)
Growth (June 2006
on December 2005)
Prices of goods and services, total 5.7 6.2 Retardation by 0.5
percentage points
Of which:
- food prices 6.1 7.0 Retardation by 0.9
percentage points
- food prices, excluding vegetable and fruit prices 2.7 4.5 Retardation by 1.8
percentage points
- non-food prices 2.2 2.3 Retardation by 0.1
percentage points
- prices of paid services provided to households 9.8 10.0 Retardation by 0.2
percentage points
Prices of goods and services included in core inflation calculation 3.0 3.9 Retardation by 0.9
percentage points
Source: Rosstat.
Inflation Dynamics
Consumer Prices
According to the Federal State Statistics Ser-
vice, consumer prices gained 5.7% in the first half
of 2007 as against 6.2% in January-June 2006. In
2007 Q1, they rose 3.4%, in 2007 Q2 - 2.2%. In
June 2007, consumer prices were up 8.5% year
on year and in the first half of 2007 they increased
7.9% on the same period in 2006.
Core inflation stood at 3.0% in the first half
of 2007 as against 3.9% in January-June 2006. The
prices of goods and services included in the calcu-
lation of the core consumer price index rose 1.7%
in 2007 Q1 and 1.2% in 2007 Q2. In June 2007, core
inflation equalled 6.9% as compared with June
2006.
Estimates show that growth in the prices of
goods and services included in the calculation of
the core consumer price index accounted for 2.3
percentage points, or 40.4%, of overall consumer
price growth in the first half of 2007 (as against
3.0 percentage points, or 48.4%, in January-June
2006).
The slowing of growth in food prices, ex-
cluding vegetable and fruit prices, made the
biggest contribution to the reduction of inflation.
These prices rose 2.7% in the first half of 2007 as
32007 Q2
Inflation Dynamics
Food price inflation (%)
Growth (June 2007
on December 2006)
Growth (June 2006
on December 2005)
Food products 6.1 7.0 Retardation by 0.9 percentage points
Bread and bakery products 4.7 6.3 Retardation by 1.6 percentage points
Cereals and legumes 7.3 9.0 Retardation by 1.7 percentage points
Pasta products 2.9 3.2 Retardation by 0.3 percentage points
Meat and poultry 2.3 2.2 Acceleration by 0.1 percentage points
Fish and seafood 4.3 4.2 Acceleration by 0.1 percentage points
Milk and dairy products 2.2 3.2 Retardation by 1 percentage points
Butter 2.7 3.0 Retardation by 0.3 percentage points
Sunflower oil 0.8 -0.9
Granulated sugar -4.5 30.4
Vegetables and fruit 38.6 31.5 Acceleration by 7.1 percentage points
Alcoholic beverages 3.4 4.0 Retardation by 0.6 percentage points
Source: Rosstat.
against 4.5% in January-June 2006. Estimates
show that growth in these prices in the first half
of 2007 accounted for a percentage point, or
17.5% of overall increase in consumer prices. In
the first half of 2006, this group of products was
responsible for 1.8 percentage points, or 28.6%
of total growth in consumer prices.
Prices of most of the major groups of food
products in January-June 2007 rose at rates that
did not exceed those of the first half of 2006.
Growth in the prices of meat and poultry and fish
and seafood was by 0.1 percentage points higher
than in the first half of last year. At the same time,
the price of granulated sugar declined from Sep-
tember 2006 to May 2007. In the first half of the
year, granulated sugar prices fell 4.5% and in the
period from September 2006 to May 2007 they
slumped 23.4%. In the first half of 2006, growth
in granulated sugar prices accounted for 0.3 per-
centage points of growth in consumer prices,
whereas in the first half of the year its contribu-
tion was negative and negligent.
Vegetable and fruit prices rose 38.6% in
the first half of 2007, an increase of 7.1 percent-
age points on the same period of 2006. Overall,
this growth was close to the period average in
2001-2006. According to estimates, due to growth
in vegetable and fruit prices in the first half of the
year, the general rate of inflation rose by 1.5 per-
centage points (26.0% of overall consumer price
growth) as against 1.2 percentage points (20.2%)
in January-June 2006.
Overall growth in food prices in the first
half of 2007 stood at 6.1% as against 7.0% in the
same period of 2006.
As in the previous years, non-food prices
grew more slowly than other consumer prices. In
the first half of the year, they rose 2.2% as against
2.3% in the same period of 2006.
The period from October 2006 through
March 2007 saw a fall in petrol prices. In 2007 Q1,
they were down 0.9%, in 2007 Q2 they were up
1.4% and as result, first-half growth stood at
0.5% as against 2.6% in January-June 2006.
The prices of paid services provided to
households increased 9.8% in the first half of the
year as against 10.0% in the same period a year
earlier. Estimates show that growth in paid ser-
vice prices in the first half of the year accounted
for 2.4 percentage points, or 42.7%, of overall
consumer price increase (2.4 percentage points,
or 38.3%, in January-June 2006).
Housing and utility prices rose 12.7% in the
first half of 2007 as against 16.0% in the same
period last year. Growth in communication
charges accelerated from 0.3% in January-June
2006 to 10.5% due to a significant rise in the mu-
nicipal telephone service rates in February. Over-
all growth in administered service prices in the first
half of the year is estimated at 11.8%, an increase
of 0.7 percentage points on the same period last
year.
Growth in paid service prices in the first half
of 2007 surpassed overall growth in the prices of
2007 Q2
goods by 5.5 percentage points as against 5.0
percentage points in the first half of 2006.
Rosstat data indicate that in all federal dis-
tricts, except the North-Western and Southern
Federal Districts, consumer price growth in the first
half of 2007 was smaller than in the same period
of 2006.
According to estimates, the first half of the
year saw the narrowing of the differences be-
tween Russian territories and regions in terms of
a fixed set of goods and services used by the Fed-
eral State Statistics Service for the interregional
comparisons of the purchasing power of the
population. In January-June 2007, the regional dif-
ference rat
io1 decreased from 45.3% to 41.1%.
Growth in non-food prices in the first half
of the year was virtually the same in all federal dis-
tricts. However, vegetable and fruit price increases
differed significantly by region. In the Southern
Federal District, for instance, these prices rose
59.9%, whereas in the Far Eastern Federal District
their growth stood at 10.8%.
In most federal districts growth in paid ser-
vice prices slowed in the first half of the year, as
compared with the same period last year. The only
exceptions were the North-Western and Volga
Federal Districts. According to data provided by
the Institute for the Economy in Transition, the in-
flationary expectations of the managers of key in-
dustrial enterprises in January-June 2007 were
more or less the same as a year earlier but differed
within a broader range, which means that they
have become more uncertain. In the first half of
the year, 24%-40% of respondents predicted
growth in selling prices as against 27%-36% in
January-June 2006.
Housing prices
Housing prices have risen rapidly in recent
years, exceeding growth in consumer prices. In
2007 Q2, housing prices on the primary market
increased 10.7% as compared with 2006 Q 42
(21.3% in the same period last year) and 10.7%
on the secondary market (18.9%).
Growth in housing prices is slowing amid
rapid growth in housing construction, which stood
at 134.8% in the first half of the year as compared
with the same period last year. Continued growth
in household income and the expansion of mort-
gage lending help households finance a large pro-
portion of housing construction (49.3% in the first
half of 2007).
Producer prices
Industrial producer prices rose 14.5% in
the first half of 2007 as against 9.4% in the first
half of 2006. The acceleration of growth in pro-
ducer prices was the result of the 32.9% rise in
1 The regional difference ratio is calculated by the Bank of Russia as the difference between the price of a fixed set of goods and
services in the most expensive and the cheapest regions relative to the national value of the same set.
2 As of end of period.
52007 Q2
Inflation Dynamics
producer prices in the mining sector. Producer
price growth in the fuel and energy sector in-
creased from 13.7% in the first half of 2006 to
37.0%. Producer prices in the metallic ore mining
sector rose 3.5% as against 21.4% in the same
period last year. Estimates show that the change
in producer prices in the mining sector in the first
half of the year accounted for 7.3 percentage
points, or 50.7%, of overall industrial producer
price growth. This compares with 3.1 percentage
points, or 33.0%, in January-June 2006.
First-half price growth in the manufactur-
ing sector in 2007 stood at 8.2% as against 7.7%
in 2006.
As for the manufacturing industries whose
output goes to the consumer goods market, first-
half growth accelerated from 1.6% in 2006 to
4.4% in 2007 in the textile and clothing industry.
At the same time, price growth slowed down in
the production of foodstuffs, including bever-
ages, and tobacco and leather, leather goods and
footwear.
First-half price growth in the production,
transmission and distribution of electricity, gas
and water accelerated from 10.1% in 2006 to
14.1% in 2007.
Freight transportation rates rose 4.8% in
the first half of the year as against 15.5% in the
same period last year and railway transport fares
were up 7.7% as against 8.9% in January-June
2006.
Communication fees for corporate enti-
ties increased 3.8% in the first half of 2007 as
against 1.0% in the first half of 2006.
Price growth in the construction sector
stood at 6.8% in January-June 2007 as against
4.4% in the same period of 2006.
Agricultural producer prices fell 0.6% in
the first half of the year, whereas in the first half
of last year they rose 0.8%. Producer prices went
up in crop growing but came down in livestock
breeding. First-half growth in crop farming was
3.9% in 2007 as against 9.0% in 2006. There was
a particularly high rise in potato prices in that pe-
riod, which increased 19.8% as against 36.6% in
the first half of 2006.
2007 Q2
First-half prices of livestock products were
down 3.6% in 2007, whereas in 2006 they fell
4.0%. Livestock and poultry prices declined 1.1%
as against 0.5% in January-June 2006.
Inflation in some countries3
First-half inflation (June 2007 on December 2006) in
the countries that are the major exporters of goods to Russia
in 2007 was higher than in 2006. As for the countries that
account for a large part of Russian imports, inflation acceler-
ated to 4.9% in Hungary (2.9% in June 2006 on December
2005), 1.7% in China (0.1%), 4.2% in Ukraine (2.9%) and
2.2% in Poland (1.0%). It slowed in Turkey, Japan, Great Brit-
ain, Kazakhstan and some eurozone countries (France, Italy,
Spain and Belgium). The acceleration of price growth in China,
Ukraine and Germany was the principal factor of the rise in
the aggregated inflation indicator for the major exporters of
goods to Russia.
US inflation in the first half of 2007 (June on Decem-
ber of previous year) stood at 3.2% as against 3.1% in the
same period last year. The rise in energy prices by 1.7 percent-
age points made a decisive contribution to the change in the
general level of prices in the United States in the period under
review. The contributions made by core inflatio n4 and food
prices stood at 1.2 percentage points and 0.4 percentage
points respectively. Energy prices gained 19.4%. The accel-
eration in energy price growth (from 17.4% in January-June
2006) was due to the quickening of energy price increases in
the housing and utility sector5 (from 3.3% to 7.9%), whereas
growth in motor fuel prices slowed slightly (from 32.6% to
30.8%). Food prices gained 2.8% as against 0.8% in June
2006 on December 2005. Their accelerated growth was at-
tributable to growth in the prices of bread and bakery prod-
ucts and meat and dairy products.
Core inflation in the United States in the first half of
the year slowed from 1.9% to 1.5% in the same period last
year. The slowing of growth in rent (from 2.9% to 2.5%) and
the fall in clothes, footwear and transport prices were con-
tributing factors.
Eurozone inflation6 in the first half of the year stood
at 1.4%, as was the case in the same period last year. Core
inflation made the biggest contribution to consumer price
growth in the eurozone (0.7 percentage points). Growth in
energy prices accounted for 0.5 percentage points and food
prices 0.3 percentage points. Compared to the first half of
last year, the contribution by core inflation increased while
the contribution of the changes in energy prices decreased.
Growth in energy prices in January-June 2007 (5.1%) slowed
on the same period of 2006 (7.2%). Prices of motor fuel and
lubricants rose 8.8% and household energy prices edged up
0.8% as against 9.0% and 5.0% in the first half of 2006 re-
spectively. Food, alcohol and tobacco prices increased 1.4%
as against 1.7% in June 2006 on December 2005. There was a
slowing of growth in the prices of meat and dairy products
and vegetable and fruit prices.
Eurozone core inflation 7 stood at 0.9% in January-
June 2007 as against 0.6% in the first half of 2006. Growth
in hotel and restaurant service prices made the biggest con-
tribution to core inflation. Its acceleration along with the
quickening of growth in the prices of education-related prod-
ucts and services and household goods led to the escalation
of core inflation.
3 Based on data provided by the US Labor Department’s Bureau of Labour Statistics, the European Communities’ Statistical Office
(Eurostat), China’s National Statistics Bureau and national statistics agencies of other countries. Contribution of individual fac-
tors to US and eurozone inflation has been calculated by the Bank of Russia.
4 The rise in the level of prices of goods and services included in the consumer goods basket, except foodstuffs and energy
products.
5 Fuel oil, boiler fuel, coal, household gas and electricity.
6 Thirteen member states, including Slovenia. Eurostat data.
7 Growth in prices of goods and services included in the consumer goods basket, excluding foodstuffs, alcoholic beverages,
tobacco and energy products.
72007 Q2
Inflation Dynamics
Terms of trade
The price situation on the world markets for
the major Russian export commodities8 was good
on the whole in January-June 2007. World market
prices for Russian exporters were on average
higher than in the same period of 2006, while non-
energy prices rose 13.2% and energy prices fell
1.3%.
Growth in oil prices, which resumed in the
first quarter of the year, continued in the second.
The main reasons for the rise in oil prices were
more rapid growth in world demand for oil than
its supply, the expectations of a possible reduc-
tion in oil deliveries to the world market from Iran
connected with the implementation of that
country’s nuclear programme, the decrease in Ni-
gerian oil exports and the OPEC’s decision to keep
oil production unchanged. As a result, according
to a Bank of Russia estimate, in 2007 Q2 the aver-
age price of Urals crude was up 1.4% on the same
period last year at $65.5 per barrel. Petroleum
product prices were on average the same as in
2006 Q2, while the price of natural gas in Europe
was down 3.2%.
In the first half of the year, the world mar-
ket price of Russian oil was by 2.3% lower than in
the first half of last year, petroleum products were
down 3.6% and natural gas was up 1.7%.
The world metal market in 2007 Q2 regis-
tered a slight rise in ferrous metal prices. As com-
pared with 2006 Q2, ferrous metal prices in-
creased 1.4% on average, but in the first half of
2007 they were down 1.8% on the same period in
2006. On the non-ferrous metal market, copper
and nickel prices continued to rise in 2007 Q2 as
compared with 2007 Q1, whereas the price of alu-
minium remained virtually unchanged. In January-
June 2007, non-ferrous metal prices were consid-
erably higher (by almost 50% on average) than in
the same period of 2006: the price of aluminium
was 10% higher, copper 12% and nickel 160%.
Prices of other Russian raw material exports, ex-
cept timber, were higher than in January-June
2006.
Prices of major food products imported by
ssia9 changed both ways in the first half of the
year. Beef prices rose 5% on the same period in
2006, pork was up 8% and poultry 12%.
8 Average prices are based on data provided daily by news agency Reuters for oil, Petroleum Argus for petroleum products (petrol,
diesel fuel and fuel oil), and the London Metal Exchange for non-ferrous metals (aluminium, copper and nickel). Average monthly
prices of natural gas and ferrous metal indices are published by the World Bank and average monthly prices of other goods by the
IMF.
9 Average prices of raw and refined sugar are based on data published daily by the London Commodity Exchange. Average monthly
prices of grains are based on data published by the World Bank and beef, pork and poultry by the International Monetary Fund.
2007 Q2
The fact that beef prices in the first half of
the year remained unchanged on the end of 2006
indicates that the beef market has somewhat
stabilised, while growth in pork and poultry prices
is due to the rise in world demand.
In the past two agricultural years, the world
market has seen grain price growth resume. Ac-
cording to the Word Bank, in June 2007 the price
of wheat was 60% higher than in June 2005 and
the price of corn 70%. Despite the slowing of
growth in wheat prices and the fall in corn prices,
in 2007 Q2 these prices rose on the world market
quarter on quarter. The price of wheat was up 8%
and corn 46% on 2006 Q2 (a year earlier 33% and
13% respectively). In January-June 2007, wheat
prices were 11% and corn prices 54% higher than
in the same period of 2006.
According to the International Grains
Council’s estimates, the outlook for the world
grain harvest in the new agricultural year, which
runs from July 1, 2007, through June 30, 2008,
remains good, although weather conditions in
some CIS and European countries and the United
States have led to the downward revision of har-
vest projections. Some countries, such as Egypt,
Brazil and India, are buying up wheat on the world
market, while Ukraine in June imposed a tempo-
rary ban on wheat exports. The world consump-
tion of corn is growing rapidly as corn is increas-
ingly used as a raw material for the production of
a bio-fuel (ethanol). The lowering of the grain
harvest forecasts amid the lowest level of grain
stocks in 30 years and the rising world demand
for grains, especially corn, presage further growth
in the price of these crops.
Russia’s wheat exports to the world market
has grown in the past few years and since 2005
they have invariably surpassed imports, making
Russia once again a net exporter of wheat. Wheat
imports contracted 72.2% in volume in January-
May 2007, as compared with the same period last
year, while the contract price increased 30%.
Wheat exports in that period rose 30% in volume
amid the 50% rise in the contract price and ex-
ceeded import volumes by 17.2 times (in January-
May 2006, wheat exports exceeded imports by 3.7
times).
Sugar prices continued to decline on the
world market in 2007 Q2. A bumper raw sugar
harvest led to growth in the production of refined
sugar and a significant oversupply on the world
market. As compared with 2006 Q2, the price of
raw sugar fell 48% and refined sugar 39% and in
the first half of the year the world market price of
raw sugar slumped 45% and refined sugar 32%
year on year.
Growth in oil and petroleum product prices
and the higher-than-last-year level of prices of
other raw materials amid the sustained average
rate of increase in import prices in the past two
years testify to the improvement of the terms of
Russia’s trade with foreign countrie
s10 in the first
10 The ratio between export and import price indices.
92007 Q2
Inflation Dynamics
half of 2007 as compared with the first half of
2006.
Russia’s trade surplus contracted in that pe-
riod due to the slight rise in exports and the accel-
eration of growth in imports. In the first half of
the year, Russia’s trade surplus decreased by an
estimated 16.7% to $61.7 billion, whereas in the
same period last year it expanded 35.6% to $74.1
billion.
Foreign trade in some countries11
The European Union (E U)12 registered a decrease of
8.1 billion euros in its trade deficit in January-May 2007 year
on year. The value of EU imports of mineral fuel and lubri-
cants contracted 13.1%, whereas in January-May 2006 it in-
creased almost 50%. Russia accounted for more than a quar-
ter of the value of these imports. In January-May 2007, im-
ports of Russian goods by EU member countries decreased
6% in value year on year, of which imports of mineral fuel
and lubricants declined 12.8%. As a result, Russia’s share in
the total value of EU imports contracted from 10.9% in Janu-
ary-May 2006 to 9.9% (whereas China expanded its share
from 13.3% to 15.5%).
The US trade deficit contracted by $11.2 billion in Janu-
ary-May 2007, as compared with the same period last year,
due to slower growth in imports and relatively stable growth
in exports. The slowing of growth in imports was the result
of the reduction in the value of imports of crude oil, gas con-
densate and petroleum products, some kinds of metal prod-
ucts (non-monetary gold, ferrous metal products, bauxite
and aluminium), timber and pulp-and-paper products, build-
ing materials and some other kinds of primary goods and
materials for industry and construction, cars and car compo-
nents. US imports from Russia decreased year on year due to
the reduction in ferrous and non-ferrous metal imports. China
accounted for almost a third of the US trade deficit.
China’s first-half trade surplus in 2007 increased by
$51.4 billion, or 80%, as compared with the same period last
year, due to the expansion of exports. The latest published
data show that in January-April 2007 Chinese imports from
Russia increased in value on the same period last year but more
slowly than aggregate Chinese imports. As the terms and con-
ditions of Russian crude and natural gas exports to Belarus
changed, growth in Russian exports to that country slowed
significantly in value. Russia’s share of Belarus imports con-
tracted from 61.8% in January-May 2006 to 58.2% in the
same period this year. Ukraine’s imports of Russian goods
grew at a steady pace and Kazakhstan’s imports from Russia
increased much faster than in January-May 2006. However,
Russia’s share in Ukraine and Kazakhstan imports of goods
contracted.
Demand
Domestic demand
First-quarter GDP increased 7.9% in 2007 as
against 5.0% in 2006. Economic growth was due
to rapid increase in investor and consumer de-
mand. At the same time, domestic demand for
imported goods rose faster than the demand for
home-made products. As compared with the pre-
vious year, the gap between the rates of growth
in these indicators narrowed as demand for do-
mestically manufactured goods quickened.
According to Bank of Russia estimates,
growth in imports of investment goods exceeded
growth in consumer goods imports. The latter ex-
panded mostly due to the rapid increase in imports
of cars, household appliances and other non-food
products.
Imports from Asia-Pacific Economic Co-op-
eration (APEC) member countries, especially
China and Japan, increased more rapidly than
overall imports in January-June 2007. Imports
from EU member countries, including eurozone
and CIS countries, grew more slowly than overall
imports. As for the EU, there was a rapid rise in
imports from Spain, Great Britain, the Czech Re-
public and Italy, and as for the CIS countries, from
Ukraine and Armenia. Imports grew at the slow-
est rates from Eurasian Economic Community
(EurAsEc) member countries, except Uzbekistan
and Tajikistan.
The share of imported products in the retail
trade commodity structure expanded from 47%
in 2006 Q1 to 48% in 2007 Q1, mostly due to
growth in non-food imports.
Growth in imports in the first half of 2007,
as a year earlier, was mostly due to the expansion
of import volumes, which accelerated significantly
as compared with the first half of 2006, while
growth in import prices was on average virtually
11 Based on data compiled by the US Department of Commerce Bureau of Census, Eurostat, China’s Ministry of Trade and national
statistics agencies of other countries.
12 Twenty-seven member countries, including Bulgaria and Romania. Excluding mutual trade between EU member countries.
2007 Q2
unchanged. At the same time, growth in the price
of some imported products provokes price growth
on the domestic market. The significant increase
in the value of imports was due to the accelerated
growth in engineering imports, especially cars, as
compared with the first half of 2006.
Household spending on final consumption
increased 11.9% in 2007 Q1 as against 9.6% in
2006 Q1. Consumer spending continued to grow
rapidly in the first half of the year, leading to the
expansion of sales through the retail trade net-
work. Growth in retail trade turnover accelerated
to 14.2% as against 12.3% in January-June 2006,
whereas the value of paid services provided to
households slowed slightly, from 7.6% in Janu-
ary-June 2006 to 7.2%.
Government expenditures on final con-
sumption increased 4.4% in 2007 Q1 as against
4.0% in 2006 Q1. Nevertheless, the absorption of
additional oil revenues by the Stabilisation Fund
contained growth in consumer prices.
Gross capital formation expanded 34.2% in
January-March 2007 as against 4.0% in January-
March 2006. Fixed capital investment grew 22.3%
in the first half of the year as against 11.0% in the
same period last year. The biggest investments
were made in the mining sector, transport and
communications.
Investments in machinery, equipment and
transport vehicles accounted for more than a third
of total investments. About one-fifth went to
purchase imported equipment. Large investments
in machinery and equipment were a major factor
of the technical retooling of enterprises and
growth in labour productivity, which created con-
ditions for the reduction of price growth.
Fixed capital investment was mostly fi-
nanced by borrowed funds (53.3%) in 2007 Q1,
of which 13.4% were budget funds. Bank loans
accounted for 9.2% of the investment financing
as against 9.3% in January-March 2006.
As imports grew much faster than exports,
net exports of goods and services decreased 21.9%
in January-March 2007.
Foreign demand13
Estimates based on forecasts made by the
OECD, the Commission of the European Commu-
nities and news agency Reuters indicate that the
economic situation in the countries that are
Russia’s leading trading partners remained good
in the first half of 2007. GDP growth rates in the
countries that are Russia’s major importers re-
mained high, according to estimates. They were
basically unchanged on the first half of 2006.
However, Ukraine, Slovakia, Poland, Germany and
Kazakhstan and some other countries in this group
registered higher GDP growth rates than in Janu-
ary-June 2006.
According to preliminary data, China’s GDP
increased 11.5% in January-June 2007, as com-
pared with the same period last year (10.9% in
January-June 2006). US GDP growth slowed from
3.3% to 1.7% amid the reduction of investment in
housing construction.
Russian exports of goods increased in the
first quarter of the year as compared with the
same period last year mostly as a result of higher
13 Based on data compiled by the US Commerce Department Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, China’s National Statistics
Bureau and national statistics offices of other countries.
GDP consumption
(growth as % of corresponding period of previous year)
2004 2005 2006 2007
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Full
year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Full
year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Full
year Q1
GDP 7.0 7.8 7.2 6.6 7.2 5.0 5.6 6.5 8.0 6.4 5.0 7.0 6.8 7.8 6.7 7.9
Final consumption 8.2 9.2 10.0 9.2 9.2 6.7 10.3 10.7 10.9 9.7 7.9 9.1 9.6 10.2 9.3 9.7
Of which:
- households 11.0 12.3 13.2 11.9 12.1 9.5 14.0 13.7 13.6 12.8 9.6 10.7 11.6 12.6 11.2 11.9
Gross capital formation 14.7 15.7 8.0 13.7 12.2 16.3 0.4 6.6 8.3 7.2 4.0 16.9 10.4 19.7 13.4 34.2
Net exports -4.1 -8.6 -14.9 -23.8 -12.2 -9.9 -8.6 -24.0 -11.1 -12.8 -5.9 -14.3 -22.2 -24.3 -15.8 -21.9
- exports 11.2 11.7 11.1 13.0 11.8 3.5 5.7 5.1 10.6 6.4 9.0 6.4 6.1 7.4 7.2 3.4
- imports 21.5 22.4 20.8 27.4 23.3 14.7 14.5 17.8 19.6 17.0 22.9 21.7 19.1 23.2 21.7 25.5
Source: Rosstat.
112007 Q2
Inflation Dynamics
value of non-energy exports. The rise in the ex-
port prices of non-energy products and the re-
sumed growth in oil prices were accompanied by
the expansion of the export volumes of oil and
most other goods. Natural gas exports contracted
significantly in volume. As compared with the first
half of 2006, exports of goods increased 9.3% to
$157.2 billion (according to the balance of pay-
ments methodology). Export volumes grew more
slowly than prices and their rates of growth re-
mained relatively low. Exports of goods to APEC
and CIS countries and especially EurAsEc countries
in January-June 2007 increased much more rap-
idly than overall expor
ts14. As regards the APEC
member countries, there was a particular rise in
the value of exports to Japan and South Korea,
while exports to the United States fell. Exports of
goods to the European Union, including the
eurozone, increased slightly. As regards Russia’s
major EU trading partners, the most significant
growth was registered in the value of exports to
Portugal, Sweden and Spain, amid the decrease
in the value of exports to Germany and Italy.
Supply
First-half data testify to rapid growth in the
key macroeconomic indicators in that period. Out-
put in the major types of economic activity in-
creased 9.1% as against 5.7% in the same period
last year. The most rapid rates of growth were reg-
istered in the construction, retail trade and the
manufacturing sector.
Industrial output rose 7.7% in January-June
2007 as against 4.4% in the same period of 2006.
The role of the manufacturing sector in industrial
production growth continued to increase. Output
in the manufacturing sector grew from 4.5% in
January-June 2006 to 12.2% in January-June 2007.
The most rapid rates of growth were registered in
the activities that supplied investor demand: the
output of machinery and equipment increased
23.4%, non-metal mineral products 17.5% and
transport vehicles 14.9%. Output increased rap-
idly in the activities oriented to the consumer
goods market: the production of leather and foot-
wear expanded 13.8%, foodstuffs 9.9% and tex-
tile and clothing 5.2%. As a result, this created
conditions conducive to the reduction of inflation-
ary pressure.
The expansion of the supply of goods had a
favourable effect on price dynamics in the
economy. Agricultural output increased 2.5% in
the first half of the year as against 1.1% in the first
half of last year. The output of the major livestock
products, including cattle and poultry raised for
slaughter, grew 10%. As a result, in the first half
of the year the output of meat and meat prod-
ucts increased 8.6% on the same period last year,
of which the output of meat, including 1
st category
sub-products, expanded 18.3%. This had a
favourable effect on meat prices on the consumer
goods market. Significant growth (by 16.4%) in
the supply of granulated sugar on the consumer
goods market also favourably affected the prices
of this product.
Gross output of 2006 harvest grain crops
surpassed the 2005 level by 0.3%, but the grain
stocks created by the beginning of 2007 were by
0.3% smaller than a year earlier. By July 2007,
grain stocks at the procurement and processing
enterprises had decreased by 12%. The most sig-
nificant reduction was registered in food wheat
and rye stocks (by 14.3% and 30.0% respectively)
and this had an adverse impact on the output of
some food products and caused their prices to rise
on the consumer goods market. As a result, in
January-June 2007 the output of bread and bak-
ery products declined 1.6%, pasta 6.2% and flour
4.5%.
The production capacity utilisation ratio has
been observed to grow steadily in recent years. In
industry, it was estimated at 75% in 2007 Q1,
which represents an increase of 10 percentage
points on the same period last year. The highest
production capacity utilisation ratios were regis-
tered at enterprises producing leather, leather
goods and footwear (95%) and at enterprises
turning out timber products (78%). The lowest
were at enterprises producing machinery and
equipment (63%) and enterprises producing
foodstuffs, including beverages, and tobacco
products (58%). Taking into consideration the
unfavourable age structure of fixed assets in the
Russian economy today (over 50% of industrial
14 According to data provided by Russia’s Federal Customs Service.
2007 Q2
machinery and equipment have been in operation
for more than 20 years), the capacity utilisation
ratio is quite high and it increases the inflationary
pressure on the economy.
Labour market
The number of people employed in the
economy increased 1.9% in January-June 2007 as
against 0.7% in the same period last year. Produc-
tion growth rates are believed to be higher. As a
result, in the first half of the year labour produc-
tivity increased by an estimated 5.6% as against
5.3% in the same period a year earlier. These fig-
ures show that the intensive factors of growth
continued to play an important role, containing
price increases in the economy.
In January-March 2007, as in the previous
years, growth in the production of goods was
faster than in the production of services, accord-
ing to estimates and growth in labour productiv-
ity in the production of goods was faster than in
the production of services and faster than the re-
duction in the number of jobs. Growth in jobs
numbers in the service sector accelerated as com-
pared with the same period last year.
Real wages grew faster (by 117.5%) than
labour productivity in January-June 2007 and the
gap between them widened in that period as com-
pared with the corresponding period of 2006, cre-
ating conditions for further price growth.
Wage levels by type of economic activity
continued to differ considerably in 2007. The high-
est average monthly wage in January-May 2007
was registered in the financial sector (33,321
rubles) and fuel and energy production (25,136
rubles). It exceeded the national average wage by
2.7 times and 2.1 times respectively. The lowest
wages were registered in agriculture, hunting and
forestry (5,120 rubles), the production of textile
and clothing (5,751 rubles) and the production of
leather, leather goods and footwear (6,433
rubles), making up 42%, 47% and 53% of the
national average wage respectively. It should be
noted that low wages were registered in the sec-
tors that were largely financed from the federal
budget (education, the provision of public utility,
social and personal services, healthcare and pub-
lic services). At the same time, nominal wage grew
rapidly (by 28%-30%) in these activities.
Wage accounted for 51.4% in the GDP
structure by source of income in 2007 Q1 as against
46.4% in the same period last year.
The number of unemployed (calculated ac-
cording to the ILO methodology) dropped by an
estimated 7.2% in January-June 2007 (in January-
June 2006 it was down 0.9%). The total number
of jobless in the first half of the year stood at 7.0%
of the economically active population (7.6% in
January-June 2006).
132007 Q2
Monetary Conditions
Monetary Conditions
Exchange rate
Favourable trends continued on the domes-
tic foreign exchange market in the second quar-
ter of the year. High energy prices brought about
a massive inflow of foreign currency proceeds to
the domestic market and growth in Russia’s inter-
national reserves. The ruble’s rate against the dol-
lar and the euro continued largely to follow the
dollar/euro dynamics on international markets.
The weakening of the dollar against other major
world currencies was due, as before, to structural
imbalances in the US economy, the downturn in
the real economy and the chronic budget and
trade deficit. The Bank of Russia remained the net
buyer of foreign currency on the domestic foreign
exchange market, conducting operations to miti-
gate the ruble’s fluctuations against the dollar and
the euro.
In the second quarter of the year, the do-
mestic foreign exchange market registered fluc-
tuations in the ruble’s rate against the dollar and
the euro, caused by the dollar’s correction on the
world currency market, but the overall tendency
was towards the ruble’s appreciation against the
dollar, which was first noted in early 2006. The
nominal ruble/US dollar rate gained 1.7% quar-
ter on quarter as against 3.5% in 2006 Q2. In April,
the average nominal ruble/dollar rate rose 1.0%
month on month. The continued rise of the ruble
against the dollar was due to several factors, es-
pecially the foreign exchange market participants’
expectations of a cut in the US federal funds rate.
In May, the ruble remained virtually unchanged,
gaining just 0.1% against the dollar and in June
the ruble slipped 0.4%. Overall, in the period from
the beginning of the year the nominal rate of the
ruble against the dollar appreciated 1.4% as
against 6.8% in January-June 2006 and as of
July 1, 2007, it stood at 25.82 rubles to the dollar.
In the second quarter, the average nominal ruble/
dollar rate stood at 25.86 as against 26.31 in the
first.
The nominal ruble/euro rate was down
1.1% in the second quarter of the year as compared
with the first (in 2006 Q2, it was down 1.0%). In
April, the nominal ruble/euro rate dropped 0.9%
and in May 0.1%, but in June it gained 0.4%. In
the period from the beginning of the year, the
ruble/euro rate was down 0.1% to 34.72 rubles to
the euro as of July 1, 2007. The average nominal
ruble/euro rate stood at 34.86 in the second quar-
ter as against 34.48 in the first.
The real rate of the ruble against the dollar
appreciated 1.9% in 2007 Q2 quarter on quarter
but it remained unchanged against the euro (in
2006 Q2, the real rate of the ruble rose 3.8%
2007 Q2
against the dollar and also remained unchanged
against the euro). The real effective rate of the
ruble against foreign currencies gained 0.3% in
2007 Q2 as against 1.8% in 2006 Q2. In the period
from the beginning of the year, the real rate of
the ruble appreciated 3.8% against the dollar and
4.1% against the euro; growth in the real effec-
tive rate of the ruble against foreign currencies
stood at 3.3%.
Russia’s international reserves increased by
$67 billion in 2007 Q2 (in 2006 Q2, they grew by
$44.7 billion). In April, they rose by $30.3 billion,
in May $34.1 billion and in June $2.6 billion and as
of July 1, 2007, they aggregated $405.8 billion, an
increase of $102 billion, or 34%, on the beginning
of the year. In January-June 2006, Russia’s inter-
national reserves expanded by $68 billion, or
37.5%.
The international currency market in the first half
of the year (June 2007 on December 2006) saw the dollar
depreciation against the euro by 1.5% and against the yuan
by 2.5%. At the same time, the dollar appreciated 4.4%
against the yen. The dollar’s depreciation against the euro was
due to the reduction of the difference between US and
eurozone interest rates. China continued to let the yuan
gradually rally against the dollar. As for the currencies of im-
portance for the Russian economy, the dollar depreciated
against the Turkish lira, Indian rupee and Hungarian forint
(in January-June 2006, the dollar appreciated against these
currencies). The dollar continued to lose its value against some
other currencies, such as the British pound, the Polish zloty,
the Slovak koruna, the Lithuanian lit, the Romanian leu and
the Kazakhstan tenge. However, the weakening of the dollar
was slower than in the first half of 2006. At the same time,
the dollar appreciated against some currencies, such as the
Belarus ruble. The Ukrainian hryvnia remained unchanged
against the dollar.
Interest rates
In the second quarter of the year, the Bank
of Russia continued to take steps to narrow the
interest rate band for its operations. On June 19,
it cut the overnight loan rate, which sets the up-
per limit of the interest rate band, from 10.5% p.a.
to 10.0% p.a. On April 2, the Bank of Russia raised
from 2.25% p.a. to 2.5% p.a. the interest rate on
deposit operations conducted on standard «tom-
next» and «call» conditions, which sets the lower
limit of the interest rate band.
In the second quarter of the year, the Bank
of Russia set lower cut-off rates at the deposit
auctions. Average weighted 4-week deposit auc-
tion rates ranged from 3.22% to 4.74% p.a.
(4.04% to 4.76% p.a. in 2007 Q1) and average
weighted 3-month deposit auction rates varied
between 4.03% and 5.02% p.a. (4.55% and
5.10% p.a. in 2007 Q1). The average weighted OBR
auction yield in April, May and June ranged from
4.20% to 5.17% p.a. (4.73% to 5.36% p.a. in
2007 Q1).
No direct repo operations were conducted
in the second quarter of the year. The average
152007 Q2
Monetary Conditions
weighted Lombard loan auction rate in that pe-
riod stood at 7.00% p.a. (it ranged from 7.00%
to 7.15% p.a. in 2007 Q1).
The ruble’s continued appreciation in real
terms against the world’s major currencies in the
second quarter of the year as compared with the
first contributed to financial market participants’
sustained interest in investing in ruble-denomi-
nated assets.
Credit institutions’ interest rates on over-
night ruble-denominated loans on the interbank
credit market remained within the Bank of Russia
interest rate band in the second quarter of the year
and only on May 18 they sank by 7 basis points
below the Bank of Russia bid rates on «tom-next»
ruble deposits. The range of overnight ruble
MIACR fluctuations (2.43%-4.56% p.a.) in the
second quarter of the year narrowed significantly
as compared with the first (2.02%-7.45% p.a.)
and the average overnight ruble MIACR fell to
3.34% p.a. in the second quarter as against 4.0%
p.a. in the first.
Interest rates on ruble loans to non-finan-
cial institutions and households mostly declined on
the Russian financial market in the period under
review. As compared with the first quarter, the
average interest rate on short-term loans to non-
financial institutions fell by 0.3 percentage points
2007 Q2
to 9.6% p.a. in the second quarter and on long-
term loans by 0.6 percentage points to 11.5% p.a.
The yield curve for loans to non-financial
institutions slid down slightly, retaining its rising
shape in all segments except operations with
terms of over three years, while its angle remained
virtually unchanged.
The average interest rate on loans to house-
holds with terms of up to one year rose by 0.3
percentage points in the second quarter as com-
pared with the first and stood at 18.4% p.a.,
whereas the rate on household loans with terms
of over 1 year slipped by 0.3 percentage points to
15.3% p.a.
The average interest rate on loans to house-
holds with terms of up to one year dropped by 0.2
percentage points to 7.3% p.a. in 2007 Q2 quar-
ter on quarter, whereas the rate on loans with
terms from one year to three years by 0.5 percent-
age points to 8.9% p.a.
Yields mostly tended to fall on the OFZ mar-
ket in the period under review. As of the end of
2007 Q2, the OFZ market portfolio effective indi-
cator stood at 6.52% p.a., which represents a de-
crease by 0.11 percentage points on the end of
2007 Q1. The average quarterly OFZ market port-
folio effective indicator slipped by 0.08 percent-
age points to 6.55% p.a.
The OFZ yield curve retained its rising slope
in 2007 Q2. The inclination of the yield curve wid-
ened as yield on OFZ bonds with terms of up to
one year decreased.
The interest rate structure by instrument
maturity remained relatively balanced in the pe-
riod under review. The yield curves for the key fi-
nancial instruments retained their rising form.
The US Federal Reserve has been keeping the fed-
eral funds rate on the shortest term interbank loans un-
changed at 5.25% p.a. since mid-2006. The European Cen-
tral Bank (ECB) raised its refinance rate in March from 3.5%
to 3.75% p.a. and in June to 4.0% p.a. (it were, respectively,
the seventh and eighth rises in the ECB refinance rate by a
quarter of a percentage point since December 2005). The US
federal funds rate has exceeded the ECB refinance rate since
December 2004 (since June 13, 2007, the difference has been
172007 Q2
Monetary Conditions
1.25 percentage points and it has been at its highest level of
2.5 percentage points since December 2004).
The LIBOR on US dollar deposits with terms from one
to 6 months remained virtually unchanged in the first half of
the year (June 2007 on December 2006), while the one-year
deposit rate rose by 0.2 percentage poin ts15. Rates on euro
deposits for all terms increased by 0.5-0.6 percentage points.
The yield on US government securities with terms to redemp-
tion from 2 to 30 years rose by 0.3-0.5 percentage points,
whereas the yield on eurozone government securities with the
same maturity periods increased by 0.7-0.8 percentage
points. The LIBOR on the US dollar deposits with all maturi-
ties and the yield on US treasury bills with all terms to redemp-
tion in June remained higher than the LIBOR on the euro de-
posits and the yield on the eurozone government securities.
Money
M2 growth stood at 15.5% in the second
quarter of the year, exceeding the previous
quarter’s rate of 4.6% due to seasonal factors. M2
growth on an annualised basis (on the corre-
sponding date of the previous year) accelerated
from 52.6% as of April 1, 2007, to 53.3% as of
July 1, 2007. As a result, M2 aggregate growth
exceeded the forecast for growth in the demand
for money in 2007, made in the Guidelines for the
Single State Monetary Policy in 2008 (37%-39%)
as well as the revised projection (39%-42%),
which took into account faster economic growth.
However, rapid economic growth and the slower
velocity of money mitigated the inflationary ef-
fect of money supply growth. In the second quar-
ter of the year, the velocity of money, calculated
by the M2 aggregate, decreased 7.2% (in the same
period last year it fell 3.9%). Calculated on an
annualised basis, it declined 19.8% as against
10.5% as of July 1, 2006.
The «money» aggregate in monetary
survey definition, which comprises the most liq-
uid transactional components of the money sup-
ply, reflects the economic situation and liquidity
preferences. In the second quarter of the year,
these funds increased 15.6% (in the same period
last year, they grew 16.2%), mostly due to the ex-
pansion of the non-cash component of this ag-
gregate, the demand deposits, as non-financial
institutions accumulated funds in their current ac-
counts (to participate in auctions and IPOs). In
June and July, growth in this aggregate slowed sig-
nificantly as auction transactions were completed,
YUKOS debt payments to the budget began and
the required reserve ratios were raised. Demand
deposits increased 20.8% in the second quarter
of the year as against 16.7% in the same period
last year. Their annualised growth accelerated
from 57.5% to 63.1% in the second quarter,
whereas growth in the «money» aggregate slowed
from 49.8% to 49.1%.
The non-cash component of the «money»
aggregate is mostly comprised of corporate funds
15 Based on data provided by the Reuters agency.
2007 Q2
and its expansion reflects above all economic
agents’ increased demand for money they need
to conduct transactions. The share of corporate
funds expanded from 79.9% to 80.4% in the sec-
ond quarter.
Cash outside banks (M0 aggregate) in-
creased 10.4% in 2007 Q2 as against 15.8% in
2006 Q2. The M0 aggregate’s annualised growth
slowed from 42.1% to 35.6% in that period and
the share of cash in M2 contracted by 1.3 percent-
age points and as of July 1, 2007, it stood at 27.8%.
Household demand for foreign exchange
significantly impacted M0 dynamics in the second
quarter of the year. In April-June, net purchases
of foreign exchange from households through the
authorised banks’ exchange offices aggregated
nearly $600 million, more than 25 times the
amount registered in the same period last year.
According to balance of payments data, the
amount of foreign exchange contracted by $4.3
billion in the second quarter of the year and in the
first half it decreased by $6.9 billion as against $4.9
billion in the first half of 2006.
The «quasi-money» aggregate comprises
less liquid components of the money supply used
by economic agents as savings. In the second
quarter of the year, this aggregate expanded
4.5% as against 8.2% in the same period last year
192007 Q2
Monetary Conditions
and its annualised growth stood at 39.9% as of
July 1, 2007 as against 33.2% as of the same date
in 2006. Second-quarter growth in «quasi-money»
was due to the expansion of the ruble component.
Ruble time deposits increased 14.9% in 2007 Q2
as against 12.8% in 2006 Q2 and their annualised
growth accelerated from 57.2% as of April 1, 2007,
to 60.1% as of July 1, 2007. Foreign currency-de-
nominated deposits contracted 20.0% in dollar
terms in 2007 Q2, whereas in the same period last
year they increased 2.1%.
Growth in the money supply, including
foreign currency deposits (M2X aggregate),
stood at 10.4% in the second quarter of the year
as against 12.3% in the same period last year.
Overall, as a result of the fall in the demand for
foreign exchange in the second quarter of the year
the annualised M2 growth was higher than
M2X growth, which stood at 44.8% as of July 1,
2007 as against 38.0% as of the same date in
2006.
The dollarisation ratio (the share of the
foreign currency component in the money supply
in its monetary survey definition) decreased by 3.8
percentage points in the second quarter of the
year and as of July 1, 2007, it stood at 9.8% (in
the same period last year it fell by 1.9 percentage
points and in 2006 as whole by 4.9 percentage
2007 Q2
points). At the same time, the ruble time deposits
accounted for the largest part of M2X (34.7% as
of July 1, 2007, as against 31.4% as of July 1, 2006).
The principal source of growth in the money
supply that comprises foreign currency deposits
in 2007 Q2 was the banking sector’s net foreign
assets, which increased by 761.8 billion rubles as
against 787.5 billion rubles in 2006 Q2. Domestic
credit expanded by 544.6 billion rubles as against
126.7 billion rubles in the same period last year.
Growth in the non-cash component of M2X, that
is, enterprise and household funds raised by banks
in rubles and foreign currency, which increased by
an annualised 48.5% as of July 1, 2007, was a little
slower than growth in bank claims on non-finan-
cial enterprises and households (52.5%). This de-
spite the fact that in the second quarter of the year
these claims increased more than in the same pe-
riod last year (by 12.9% as against 10.9%). There-
fore, the role of banking sector’s credit to non-
financial enterprises and households as a source
of growth in the aggregate money supply in-
creased in 2007 Q2.
The broad monetary base expanded
22.0% in the second quarter of the year as against
20.8% in the second quarter last year. The share
of credit institutions’ funds in correspondent ac-
counts with the Bank of Russia in the broad mon-
etary base contracted in that period from 12.3%
to 10.3%, whereas the share of credit institutions’
funds absorbed by the Bank of Russia by taking
them on deposit and OBR operations expanded
from 12.8% to 21.6%. The share of tied funds,
including credit institutions’ required reserves, also
increased, from 17.8% to 26.4% (in 2006 Q2, it
expanded by 1.9 percentage points to 14.1%).
The main source of growth in broad money
in the second quarter of the year was the net for-
eign assets of the monetary authorities, which
rose by 1,650.6 billion rubles. The accumulation of
funds in general government accounts, which was
largely due to the expansion of the Stabilisation
Fund, had a major restraining effect on money
supply growth in that period. In the first half of
the year, the Stabilisation Fund expanded by
33.8% to 3,141.4 billion rubles (in the same pe-
riod of 2006, it grew by 67.1%).
212007 Q2
Statistical Addendum
Statistical Addendum
Table 1
Consumer prices by group of goods and services
(month on month, %)
Monthly
inflation
Core
inflation
Food price
growth
Food price
growth*
Vegetable and
fruit price growth
Non-food price
growth
Growth in
non-food prices,
excluding petrol
prices**
Service price
growth
January 2.6 0.9 1.4 1.1 5.1 0.4 0.5 8.8
February 1.2 0.7 1.4 0.9 6.1 0.4 0.4 2.2
March 1.3 0.8 2.1 1.1 11.2 0.4 0.4 1.2
April 1.1 0.9 1.7 1.3 5.4 0.5 0.4 0.8
May 0.8 0.6 1.1 0.7 4.1 0.4 0.4 0.8
June 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.4 3.3 0.3 0.3 0.9
July 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 -1.8 0.4 0.4 0.9
August -0.1 0.5 -1.0 0.5 -12.9 0.5 0.4 0.8
September 0.3 0.8 -0.7 0.6 -11.6 1.1 0.8 0.9
October 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.6 -2.4 0.7 0.7 0.7
November 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.6 4.5 0.6 0.6 0.6
December 0.8 0.6 1.1 0.6 5.6 0.5 0.5 0.8
Full year (December
on December)
10.9 8.3 9.6 9.1 14.3 6.4 6.0 21.0
January 2.4 0.8 2.0 1.0 11.3 0.4 0.5 6.2
February 1.7 1.2 3.0 1.9 12.6 0.5 0.5 1.0
March 0.8 0.7 1.2 0.9 3.2 0.4 0.4 0.7
April 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 -0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6
May 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 2.6 0.4 0.4 0.6
June 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 -0.6 0.3 0.3 0.7
July 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.7 2.7 0.4 0.3 0.6
August 0.2 0.6 -0.5 0.7 -10.0 0.8 0.5 0.8
September 0.1 0.8 -0.6 0.6 -11.0 0.8 0.6 0.5
October 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.4 -4.1 0.6 0.7 0.4
November 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 2.7 0.6 0.6 0.5
December 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.8 3.6 0.5 0.5 0.7
Full year (December
on December) 9.0 7.8 8.7 8.5 10.3 6.0 5.7 13.9
January 1.7 0.6 0.9 0.6 4.1 0.4 0.4 4.7
February 1.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 3.6 0.3 0.4 2.6
March 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.5 3.2 0.4 0.4 0.6
April 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.5 3.1 0.4 0.4 0.5
May 0.6 0.3 1.0 0.1 7.8 0.4 0.3 0.5
June 1.0 0.4 1.7 0.4 12.2 0.3 0.3 0.6
* Excluding vegetables and fruit.
** Since March 2005 - the Bank of Russia estimate.
Note: Tables 1 to 7 are based on Rosstat data and the Bank of Russia calculations.
2007 Q2
Table 2
Consumer prices by group of goods and services
(since start of year on accrual basis, %)
Monthly
inflation
Core
inflation
Food price
growth
Food price
growth*
Vegetable and
fruit price growth
Non-food price
growth
Growth in
non-food prices,
excluding petrol
prices**
Service price
growth
January 2.6 0.9 1.4 1.1 5.1 0.4 0.5 8.8
February 3.9 1.7 2.8 2.0 11.5 0.7 0.9 11.2
March 5.3 2.4 4.9 3.1 24.0 1.1 1.2 12.6
April 6.5 3.3 6.7 4.4 30.8 1.6 1.6 13.5
May 7.3 4.0 7.9 5.1 36.1 2.1 2.0 14.4
June 8.0 4.4 8.6 5.5 40.6 2.4 2.4 15.4
July 8.5 5.0 8.9 6.1 38.0 2.8 2.8 16.5
August 8.3 5.5 7.8 6.6 20.2 3.4 3.2 17.4
September 8.6 6.3 7.1 7.2 6.2 4.5 4.1 18.5
October 9.2 7.1 7.5 7.8 3.6 5.2 4.8 19.3
November 10.0 7.7 8.4 8.4 8.3 5.9 5.5 20.0
December 10.9 8.3 9.6 9.1 14.3 6.4 6.0 21.0
January 2.4 0.8 2.0 1.0 11.3 0.4 0.5 6.2
February 4.1 2.0 5.0 2.9 25.3 0.9 0.9 7.2
March 5.0 2.8 6.2 3.9 29.3 1.3 1.3 8.0
April 5.4 3.2 6.5 4.2 28.9 1.6 1.6 8.6
May 5.9 3.6 7.0 4.4 32.3 2.0 2.0 9.3
June 6.2 3.9 7.0 4.5 31.5 2.3 2.3 10.0
July 6.9 4.5 8.0 5.2 35.0 2.7 2.7 10.7
August 7.1 5.1 7.4 6.0 21.6 3.5 3.2 11.5
September 7.2 5.9 6.7 6.6 8.2 4.3 3.8 12.0
October 7.5 6.5 6.7 7.0 3.7 5.0 4.5 12.5
November 8.2 7.1 7.5 7.6 6.5 5.5 5.2 13.0
December 9.0 7.8 8.6 8.5 10.3 6.0 5.7 13.9
January 1.7 0.6 0.9 0.6 4.1 0.4 0.4 4.7
February 2.8 1.1 1.8 1.1 7.8 0.7 0.8 7.4
March 3.4 1.7 2.6 1.7 11.2 1.1 1.2 8.0
April 4.0 2.2 3.3 2.1 14.7 1.5 1.7 8.6
May 4.7 2.5 4.3 2.3 23.6 1.9 2.0 9.1
June 5.7 3.0 6.1 2.7 38.6 2.2 2.3 9.8
* Excluding vegetables and fruit.
** Since March 2005 - the Bank of Russia estimate.
232007 Q2
Statistical Addendum
Table 3
Consumer prices by group of goods and services
(month on corresponding month of previous year, %)
Monthly
inflation
Core
inflation
Food price
growth
Food price
growth*
Vegetable and
fruit price growth
Non-food price
growth
Growth in
non-food prices,
excluding petrol
prices**
Service price
growth
January 12.7 10.4 12.1 12.9 3.0 7.3 6.2 23.1
February 13.0 10.4 12.4 12.6 7.6 7.2 6.2 23.8
March 13.6 10.5 13.5 12.9 16.4 7.1 6.1 24.6
April 13.8 10.6 14.5 13.2 23.4 7.0 6.0 23.1
May 13.8 10.6 15.2 13.3 29.3 6.6 5.8 22.4
June 13.7 10.6 15.1 13.4 27.5 6.3 5.7 22.4
July 13.2 10.3 14.2 12.9 23.4 6.2 5.7 21.9
August 12.5 10.1 12.9 12.5 14.7 6.1 5.7 21.6
September 12.3 10.0 12.1 12.1 11.3 6.3 5.9 22.0
October 11.7 9.4 11.0 10.9 11.6 6.3 5.9 21.4
November 11.3 8.9 10.3 9.9 14.1 6.3 6.1 21.2
December 10.9 8.3 9.6 9.1 14.3 6.4 6.1 21.0
January 10.7 8.2 10.2 9.1 21.1 6.5 6.0 18.1
February 11.2 8.7 11.9 10.1 28.4 6.6 6.1 16.7
March 10.6 8.7 10.9 10.0 19.2 6.7 6.1 16.1
April 9.8 8.2 9.4 9.0 12.7 6.4 6.0 15.9
May 9.4 7.9 8.7 8.5 11.1 6.4 6.0 15.6
June 9.0 7.8 8.0 8.1 7.0 6.4 6.0 15.3
July 9.3 7.8 8.7 8.3 11.9 6.3 5.9 15.0
August 9.6 7.9 9.2 8.5 15.6 6.6 6.0 15.0
September 9.5 7.9 9.3 8.5 16.4 6.2 5.8 14.5
October 9.2 7.8 8.8 8.3 14.4 6.1 5.7 14.1
November 9.0 7.8 8.7 8.3 12.4 6.0 5.7 13.9
December 9.0 7.8 8.7 8.5 10.3 6.0 5.7 13.9
January 8.2 7.7 7.5 8.0 3.1 6.0 5.7 12.3
February 7.6 6.9 5.3 6.6 -5.1 5.8 5.6 14.2
March 7.4 6.7 4.9 6.2 -5.2 5.8 5.6 14.0
April 7.6 6.8 5.4 6.3 -1.9 5.9 5.8 13.9
May 7.8 6.7 5.9 6.3 3.0 5.9 5.7 13.8
June 8.5 6.9 7.7 6.6 16.2 5.9 5.7 13.7
* Excluding vegetables and fruit.
** Since March 2005 - the Bank of Russia estimate.
2007 Q2
Table 4
Inflation growth over period since start of year due to price changes
by group of goods and services (percentage points)
Foodstuffs* Non-food
products Paid services Vegetables and
fruit
Inflation over
period, %
Core
inflation
Non-core
inflation**
January 0.4 0.1 1.8 0.2 2.6 0.7 1.9
February 0.8 0.2 2.3 0.5 3.9 1.3 2.6
March 1.3 0.4 2.6 1.0 5.3 1.9 3.3
April 1.9 0.5 2.8 1.3 6.5 2.7 3.8
May 2.1 0.7 3.0 1.5 7.3 3.1 4.1
June 2.3 0.8 3.2 1.7 8.0 3.5 4.5
July 2.5 0.9 3.4 1.6 8.5 3.9 4.5
August 2.8 1.1 3.6 0.8 8.3 4.4 4.0
September 3.0 1.5 3.9 0.3 8.6 5.0 3.6
October 3.3 1.7 4.0 0.1 9.2 5.6 3.6
November 3.6 1.9 4.2 0.3 10.0 6.1 3.9
December 3.8 2.1 4.4 0.6 10.9 6.6 4.3
January 0.4 0.2 1.5 0.4 2.4 0.6 1.8
February 1.1 0.3 1.7 1.0 4.1 1.5 2.6
March 1.5 0.5 1.9 1.2 5.0 2.1 2.9
April 1.6 0.6 2.0 1.1 5.4 2.5 2.9
May 1.7 0.7 2.2 1.3 5.9 2.7 3.1
June 1.8 0.8 2.4 1.2 6.2 3.0 3.2
July 2.0 0.9 2.5 1.4 6.9 3.4 3.5
August 2.3 1.2 2.7 0.9 7.1 3.9 3.2
September 2.6 1.5 2.9 0.3 7.2 4.6 2.6
October 2.7 1.7 3.0 0.1 7.5 5.0 2.5
November 3.0 1.9 3.1 0.3 8.2 5.5 2.7
December 3.3 2.0 3.3 0.4 9.0 6.1 3.0
January 0.2 0.1 1.2 0.2 1.7 0.5 1.2
February 0.4 0.3 1.8 0.3 2.8 0.9 1.9
March 0.6 0.4 2.0 0.4 3.4 1.3 2.1
April 0.8 0.5 2.1 0.6 4.0 1.7 2.3
May 0.8 0.7 2.3 0.9 4.7 1.9 2.7
June 1.0 0.8 2.4 1.5 5.7 2.3 3.4
* Excluding vegetables and fruit.
** Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
252007 Q2
Statistical Addendum
Table 5
Monthly inflation growth due to price change
by group of goods and services (percentage points)
Foodstuffs* Non-food
products Paid services Vegetables and
fruit
Inflation over
period, % Core inflation Non-core
inflation**
January 0.4 0.1 1.8 0.2 2.6 0.7 1.9
February 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.3 1.2 0.6 0.7
March 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.3 0.6 0.7
April 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 1.1 0.7 0.4
May 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.3
June 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.3
July 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1
August 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.6 -0.1 0.4 -0.5
September 0.2 0.4 0.2 -0.6 0.3 0.6 -0.4
October 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0
November 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.3
December 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.4
January 0.4 0.2 1.5 0.4 2.4 0.6 1.8
February 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.7 0.9 0.7
March 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.3
April 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0
May 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.2
June 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1
July 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.3
August 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.5 0.2 0.5 -0.3
September 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.5 0.1 0.6 -0.5
October 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.2 0.3 0.4 -0.1
November 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.2
December 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.3
January 0.2 0.1 1.2 0.2 1.7 0.5 1.2
February 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.1 1.1 0.4 0.7
March 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.2
April 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.2
May 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.4
June 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.6
* Excluding vegetables and fruit.
** Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
2007 Q2
Table 6
Contribution to inflation growth over period since start
of year by group of goods and services (%)
Foodstuffs* Non-food products Paid services Vegetables and fruit Core inflation Non-core inflation**
January 17.0 4.8 70.2 8.0 27.1 72.9
February 21.2 6.2 60.4 12.1 33.4 66.6
March 24.5 6.8 50.0 18.7 36.7 63.3
April 28.6 8.1 43.8 19.5 41.1 58.9
May 29.3 9.2 41.2 20.2 43.1 56.9
June 29.0 9.8 40.5 20.8 44.1 55.9
July 30.1 10.9 40.7 18.3 46.5 53.5
August 33.2 13.2 43.6 9.9 52.3 47.7
September 35.1 17.1 44.9 3.0 58.3 41.7
October 35.9 18.6 43.9 1.6 60.9 39.1
November 35.6 19.2 41.8 3.4 61.1 38.9
December 35.2 19.2 40.3 5.4 60.5 39.5
January 16.0 6.1 59.5 18.3 24.5 75.5
February 27.2 7.7 40.9 24.1 37.2 62.8
March 30.1 9.1 37.6 23.2 42.4 57.6
April 30.5 10.3 37.9 21.3 45.7 54.3
May 29.3 11.8 37.2 21.8 46.7 53.3
June 28.6 12.9 38.3 20.2 48.4 51.6
July 29.6 13.5 36.7 20.2 49.7 50.3
August 32.7 16.8 38.5 12.1 55.4 44.6
September 35.7 20.2 39.6 4.5 63.4 36.6
October 36.3 22.4 39.4 2.0 66.7 33.3
November 36.2 22.9 37.7 3.2 67.3 32.7
December 36.6 22.6 36.3 4.6 67.1 32.9
January 13.4 8.3 69.0 9.3 29.5 70.5
February 14.9 9.2 65.3 10.6 31.3 68.7
March 17.8 11.6 58.1 12.5 38.3 61.7
April 19.5 13.5 52.9 14.0 42.8 57.2
May 18.0 14.3 48.4 19.3 41.6 58.4
June 17.5 13.8 42.7 26.0 40.4 59.6
* Excluding vegetables and fruit.
** Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
272007 Q2
Statistical Addendum
Table 7
Contribution to monthly inflation growth
by group of goods and services (%)
Foodstuffs* Non-food products Paid services Vegetables and fruit Core inflation Non-core inflation**
January 17.0 4.8 70.2 8.0 27.1 72.9
February 30.0 9.2 40.0 20.8 46.5 53.5
March 33.6 8.4 20.9 37.0 46.1 53.9
April 46.7 14.1 15.8 23.4 60.9 39.1
May 34.9 18.4 20.6 26.1 60.1 39.9
June 25.7 15.5 32.1 26.6 54.6 45.4
July 48.4 29.6 43.6 -21.6 86.0 14.0
August No estimate for negative value
September 92.7 141.5 83.9 -218.1 243.9 -143.9
October 47.2 40.9 29.7 -17.8 96.4 3.6
November 31.6 26.1 18.2 24.1 63.1 36.9
December 31.0 18.8 22.1 28.1 53.5 46.5
January 16.0 6.1 59.5 18.3 24.5 75.5
February 43.4 10.0 14.0 32.6 55.8 44.2
March 43.9 15.8 21.6 18.7 67.5 32.5
April 35.8 27.0 41.3 -4.2 90.9 9.1
May 16.1 27.6 29.9 26.4 57.3 42.7
June 15.3 34.9 59.7 -10.0 81.6 18.4
July 37.6 19.0 23.4 20.0 60.9 39.1
August 140.5 132.4 97.9 -270.7 249.5 -149.5
September 269.8 290.1 128.8 -588.7 678.9 -578.9
October 51.0 73.9 34.6 -59.5 145.8 -45.8
November 35.6 29.6 17.8 17.0 74.1 25.9
December 39.5 18.9 23.2 18.4 64.4 35.6
January 13.4 8.3 69.0 9.3 29.5 70.5
February 17.1 10.6 59.7 12.6 34.2 65.8
March 31.4 22.7 24.5 21.4 70.7 29.3
April 29.9 24.5 22.6 23.0 69.6 30.4
May 8.4 19.5 20.6 51.6 34.4 65.6
June 15.6 11.6 16.6 56.2 35.1 64.9
* Excluding vegetables and fruit.
** Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
2007 Q2
Table 8
Russia's key macroeconomic and financial indicators
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Macroeconomic indicators
GDP
over period since start of year, billion rubles
2005 4,479 9,652 15,524 21,620
2006 5,662 11,988 19,236 26,781
2007 6,566
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of
previous year
2005 105.0 105.3 105.8 106.4
2006 105.0 106.0 106.3 106.7
2007 107.9
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2005 105.0 105.6 106.6 108.0
2006 105.0 107.0 106.8 107.8
2007 107.9
Industrial output indices
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2005 103.2 103.6 104.1 104.9
2006 103.0 106.0 103.8 103.0
2007 108.4 106.7
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period
of previous year
2005 103.2 103.4 103.6 104.0
2006 103.0 104.4 104.2 103.9
2007 108.4 107.7
Agricultural output
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2005 100.3 101.2 103.8 101.4
2006 101.3 101.0 100.6 109.5
2007 101.9 102.8
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period
of previous year
2005 100.3 100.9 102.7 102.4
2006 101.3 101.1 100.8 102.8
2007 101.9 102.5
Fixed capital investment
over period since start of year, billion rubles
2005 540.5 1,316.8 2,310.4 3,611.1
2006 636.5 1,622.1 2,868.4 4,580.5
2007 866.5 2,265.1
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2005 106.3 108.4 111.4 114.3
2006 105.7 114.7 113.0 117.2
2007 120.1 123.8
Retail trade turnover
over period since start of year, billion rubles
2005 1,511.1 3,185.9 4,982.7 7,040.9
2006 1,852.4 3,915.5 6,147.6 8,690.3
2007 2,235.9 4,741.0
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2005 110.5 113.8 113.3 113.5
2006 111.1 113.3 115.0 115.0
2007 113.9 114.3
Federal budget on accrual
basis, as of end of period
revenue
billion rubles
2005 1,196.4 2,386.4 3,681.7 5,127.2
2006 1,399.1 2,938.1 4,561.0 6,278.9
2007 1,421.9 3,245.7
as % of GDP
2005 26.7 24.7 23.7 23.7
2006 24.7 24.5 23.7 23.4
2007 21.7 23.3*
expenditure
billion rubles
2005 671.1 1,444.2 2,519.7 3,514.3
2006 823.2 1,854.7 2,866.5 4,284.8
2007 945.6 2,169.7
as % of GDP
2005 15.0 15.0 16.2 16.2
2006 14.5 15.5 14.9 16.0
2007 14.4 15.6*
Federal budget surplus on accrual basis, as of end of period
billion rubles
2005 525.3 942.2 1,162.0 1,612.9
2006 575.9 1,083.4 1,694.5 1,994.1
2007 476.3 1,076.0
as % of GDP
2005 11.7 9.7 7.5 7.5
2006 10.2 9.0 8.8 7.4
2007 7.3 7.7*
Note. Table 8 is based on data compiled by the Bank of Russia, Federal State Statistics Service and on Federal Treasury reporte d
data. From April 2006, pursuant to Bank of Russia Ordinance No. 1660-U, dated February 17, 2006, interest rates on bank lending
and deposit operations include data reported by bank branches.
292007 Q2
Statistical Addendum
Table 8 (continued)
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Socio-economic indicators
Nominal imputed average
monthly per employee wage
Rubles
2005 7,638 8,234 8,674 9,651
2006 9,397 10,401 10,949 12,203
2007 11,876 13,037
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2005 122.6 122.4 123.9 126.2
2006 122.3 125.1 125.1 125.2
2007 127.3 126.1
over period since start of year , as % of corresponding period
of previous year
2005 122.6 122.4 123.0 126.9
2006 122.3 123.7 124.1 124.4
2007 127.3 126.7
Real imputed average monthly
per employee wage as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2005 108.4 107.6 110.0 113.4
2006 110.3 114.3 114.3 114.8
2007 118.2 116.8
Household money income per capita monthly average, rubles
2005 6,539.5 7,707.3 8,064.7 9,697.7
2006 8,025.7 9,806.4 10,087.6 11,791.8
2007 9,752.4 11,744.1
Household real disposable
money income
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2005 105.1 114.1 112.7 111.9
2006 106.8 113.2 111.4 109.3
2007 112.6 109.9
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period
of previous year
2005 105.1 109.8 110.8 111.1
2006 106.8 110.2 110.6 110.2
2007 112.6 111.2
Household spending,
as % of income
purchase of goods and payment of services
2005 73.6 70.1 71.9 67.2
2006 73.9 67.9 71.4 68.2
2007 74.6 69.6
compulsory payments and contributions
2005 8.4 8.8 9.6 9.6
2006 11.4 11.0 11.6 11.1
2007 13.1 12.6
growth in savings
2005 13.1 10.3 9.5 9.4
2006 10.7 9.7 7.3 10.3
2007 9.0 7.7
foreign exchange purchase
2005 7.6 8.0 9.1 9.2
2006 7.6 7.0 7.3 7.4
2007 5.3 5.4
cash on hand
2005 -2.7 2.8 -0.1 4.6
2006 -3.6 4.4 2.4 3.0
2007 -2.1 4.7
Average imputed pension total, rubles
2005 2,125 2,324 2,467 2,540
2006 2,539 2,727 2,800 2,839
2007 2,846 3,091
Real imputed pension
as % of corresponding quarter
of previous year
2005 106.6 108.2 110.6 112.6
2006 107.8 107.2 103.7 102.5
2007 104.1 104.9
over period since start of year,
as % of corresponding period
of previous year
2005 106.6 107.4 108.5 109.6
2006 107.8 107.5 106.1 105.1
2007 104.1 104.5
Total number of unemployed (calculated by ILO methodology)
million
2005 6.0 5.5 5.4 5.5
2006 5.7 5.5 5.0 5.0
2007 5.3 5.1
as % of economically active
population
2005 8.2 7.4 7.3 7.5
2006 7.8 7.4 6.7 6.8
2007 7.2 6.8
2007 Q2
Table 8 (continued)
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Foreign economic activities
Price of Urals crude
over period since start of year, $/barrel
2005 43.1 45.4 49.3 50.4
2006 57.7 61.1 62.5 60.9
2007 54.0 59.7
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2005 146.4 146.1 148.2 145.6
2006 134.0 134.7 126.7 120.9
2007 93.5 97.7
Exports of goods
over period since start of year, billion dollars
2005 50.2 109.8 174.7 243.8
2006 67.4 143.9 223.8 303.9
2007 72.1 157.2
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2005 134.6 136.4 135.4 133.1
2006 134.2 131.1 128.1 124.7
2007 107.1 109.3
Imports of goods
over period since start of year, $ billion
2005 25.7 55.1 87.6 125.4
2006 31.0 69.8 112.6 164.7
2007 42.9 95.5
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2005 129.1 128.5 129.1 128.8
2006 120.6 126.6 128.6 131.3
2007 138.5 136.8
Current account (over period since start of year), $ billion
2005 20.1 42.4 62.5 84.4
2006 30.5 55.3 79.1 95.3
2007 22.5 37.7**
Net capital outflow (inflow) by private sector (over period since start of year), $ billion
2005 1.7 -3.6 4.5 0.1
2006 -5.7 14.4 26.9 40.9
2007 13.9 67.0
Foreign investment in Russia's non-financial
sector (Rosstat data)
over period since start of year, $ billion
2005 6.0 16.5 26.8 53.6
2006 8.8 23.4 35.3 55.1
2007 24.6
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2005 97.6 86.9 92.1 132.4
2006 146.0 141.9 131.7 102.7
2007 280.0
Of which
direct
total, $ billion
2005 1.9 4.5 6.6 13.1
2006 3.8 6.4 10.3 13.7
2007 9.8
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2005 130.0 131.0 118.1 138.8
2006 200.0 143.6 155.5 104.6
2007 250.0
portfolio
total, $ billion
2005 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5
2006 0.2 0.5 0.7 3.2
2007 0.2
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2005 89.9 135.2 160.5 136.3
2006 290.0 290.0 182.3 700.0
2007 85.8
other
total, $ billion
2005 4.0 11.8 19.9 40.1
2006 4.7 16.5 24.4 38.2
2007 14.7
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2005 87.3 76.7 85.2 130.5
2006 117.2 139.1 122.8 95.3
2007 310.0
Russia's international reserves (as of end of period), $ billion
2005 137.4 151.6 159.6 182.2
2006 205.9 250.6 266.2 303.7
2007 338.8 405.8
Real ruble exchange rate indices,
last month of quarter (as % of December
of previous year)***
ruble vs. dollar
2005 4.7 3.3 2.3 3.9
2006 6.9 10.0 12.1 16.7
2007 2.3 3.8
ruble vs. euro
2005 6.8 14.7 14.2 18.8
2006 6.5 4.9 6.0 5.6
2007 3.1 4.1
effective rate
2005 5.1 8.7 8.3 10.5
2006 6.2 7.0 7.9 7.4
2007 2.7 3.3
312007 Q2
Statistical Addendum
Table 8 (continued)
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Financial market indicators (including Sberbank rates)
Average for period
Overnight interbank loan rates, % p.a.
in rubles
2005 1.2 3.0 2.3 4.6
2006 3.2 2.8 2.6 5.1
2007 3.9 3.4
in US dollars
2005 2.3 2.8 3.3 3.9
2006 4.4 4.8 5.2 5.2
2007 5.2 5.2
OFZ yields****, % p.a.
2005 7.9 8.0 7.7 7.1
2006 6.8 6.9 6.8 6.7
2007 6.6 6.6
Interest rates on household time
deposits, % p.a.
up to 1 year in rubles
2005 9.5 8.6 8.5 8.4
2006 8.3 8.0 7.6 7.7
2007 7.4 7.3
over 1 year in rubles
2005 8.4 7.9 6.2 6.4
2006 7.6 5.1 5.2 5.4
2007 7.9 7.5
up to 1 year in US dollars
2005 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.6
2006 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.9
2007 5.4 5.3
over 1 year in US dollars
2005 6.1 5.6 5.8 5.5
2006 6.2 4.7 5.0 5.5
2007 6.8 6.6
Interest rates on credit to non-financial
institutions, % p.a.
up to 1 year in rubles
2005 10.6 10.7 10.3 11.0
2006 10.4 10.8 10.3 10.4
2007 9.9 9.6
over 1 year in rubles
2005 13.0 11.7 12.9 12.1
2006 12.7 12.9 12.5 12.1
2007 12.1 11.5
up to 1 year in US dollars
2005 7.9 8.6 9.0 8.8
2006 8.6 8.4 8.6 8.5
2007 8.7 8.8
over 1 year in US dollars
2005 9.6 9.6 10.4 10.4
2006 10.5 10.2 10.4 10.0
2007 10.3 10.1
Interest rates on ruble promissory notes discounted by banks, % p.a.
2005 10.9 10.6 9.9 10.0
2006 12.9 8.7 9.2 9.7
2007 9.5 8.9
MICEX rate in "tomorrow' trades, rubles/$
2005 27.8560 28.1012 28.5150 28.7151
2006 28.0733 27.1897 26.8053 26.5910
2007 26.1795 25.8599
As of end of quarter
RTS index, points
2005 669.1 706.4 1,007.8 1,125.6
2006 1,435.0 1,494.6 1,550.0 1,921.9
2007 1,935.7 1,897.7
Refinance rate, % p.a.
2005 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.0
2006 12.0 11.5 11.5 11.0
2007 10.5 10.0
2007 Q2
Table 8 (end)
Year 1.01 1.04 1.07 1.10
Monetary indicators
M0, billion rubles
2005 1,534.8 1,481.7 1,650.7 1,740.7
2006 2,009.2 1,928.8 2,233.4 2,400.8
2007 2,785.2 2,741.2 3,027.5
M2, billion rubles
2005 4,363.3 4,474.6 4,927.4 5,292.8
2006 6,045.6 6,169.4 7,092.3 7,757.5
2007 8,995.8 9,412.6 10,874.0
Net foreign assets of monetary authorities and credit institutions, billion rubles
2005 3,210.0 3,753.3 4,379.7 4,405.4
2006 4,867.9 5,433.6 6,221.1 6,281.9
2007 6,927.5 8,010.6 8,772.5
Domestic claims, billion rubles
2005 4,345.6 3,509.6 3,487.7 4,035.2
2006 4,460.8 4,129.4 4,256.1 4,944.1
2007 5,727.7 5,696.9 6,241.6
Money (monetary survey definition), billion rubles
2005 2,848.3 2,859.6 3,144.3 3,371.9
2006 3,858.5 3,855.9 4,479.3 4,856.1
2007 5,598.4 5,774.3 6,676.5
Quasi-money (monetary survey definition), billion rubles
2005 2,450.4 2,640.0 2,871.6 3,086.5
2006 3,362.6 3,537.0 3,825.5 4,041.1
2007 4,548.3 5,120.2 5,352.7
Foreign currency deposits, billion rubles
2005 935.1 1,024.9 1,090.6 1,167.9
2006 1,178.2 1,225.9 1,221.0 1,153.2
2007 1,155.4 1,490.6 1,183.7
Broad monetary base, billion rubles
2005 2,380.3 2,250.1 2,302.8 2,538.9
2006 2,914.1 2,721.0 3,285.9 3,484.2
2007 4,121.6 4,209.2 5,137.1
Balances in correspondent accounts, billion rubles
2005 480.4 320.9 276.7 374.4
2006 508.6 320.0 430.9 443.7
2007 638.1 518.1 528.7
M2 velocity
annual average
2005 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6
2006 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.0
2007 3.8 3.6 3.3
change since start of year, %
2005 -10.0 ***** -1.1 -1.9 -3.4
2006 -6.5***** -2.3 -6.1 -9.6
2007 -13.5***** -6.1 -12.8
Monetisation of the economy (by M2 aggregate), %
2005 21.2 21.4 21.6 22.0
2006 22.7 23.2 24.2 25.1
2007 26.2 27.6 30.1
Money multiplier
by broad monetary base
2005 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.1
2006 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.2
2007 2.2 2.2 2.1
change since start of year, %
2005 9.2***** 8.5 16.7 13.7
2006 13.2***** 9.3 4.0 7.3
2007 5.2***** 2.5 -3.0
Foreign exchange rates
rubles per UD dollar
2005 27.8 27.9 28.6 28.5
2006 28.8 27.7 26.9 26.8
2007 26.3 26.0 25.8
rubles per euro
2005 37.8 36.0 34.6 34.3
2006 34.2 33.6 34.2 34.0
2007 34.7 34.7 34.7
* Preliminary data.
** Estimate.
*** Appreciation of the ruble (+), depreciation of the ruble (-).
**** Effective indicator of the OFZ market portfolio.
**** Relative to start of
previous year.
© The Central Bank of the Russian Federation, 2007
Research and Information Department