FOMC Press Conference - 2014-06-18
Central bank: fed | Type: press_conference | Date: 2014-06-18

June 18, 2014 Chair Yellen’s Press Conference FINAL
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Transcript of Chair Yellen’s Press Conference
June 18, 2014
CHAIR YELLEN. Good afternoon. The Federal Open Market Committee concluded its
June meeting earlier today. As was indicated in our policy statement, the Committee decided to
make another modest reduction in the pace of its purchases of longer-term securities. The
Committee maintained its forward guidance regarding the federal funds rate target and
reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy remains appropriate.
Today’s policy actions reflect the Committee’s assessment that the economy is
continuing to make progress toward our objectives of maximum employment and price stability.
In the labor market, conditions have improved further. The unemployment rate, at 6.3 percent, is
four-tenths lower than at the time of our March meeting, and the broader U-6 measure— which
includes marginally attached workers and those working part time but preferring full-time
work—has fallen by a similar amount. Even given these declines, however, unemployment
remains elevated, and a broader assessment of indicators suggests that underutilization in the
labor market remains significant.
Although real GDP declined in the first quarter, this decline appears to have resulted
mainly from transitory factors. Private domestic final demand—that is, spending by domestic
households and businesses—continued to expand in the first quarter, and the limited set of
indicators of spending and production in the second quarter have picked up. The Committee thus
believes that economic activity is rebounding in the current quarter and will continue to expand
at a moderate pace thereafter. Overall, the Committee continues to see sufficient underlying
strength in the economy to support ongoing improvement in the labor market.
Inflation has continued to run below the Committee’s 2 percent objective, and the
Committee remains mindful that inflation running persistently below its objective could pose
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risks to economic performance. Given that longer-term inflation expectations appear to be well
anchored, and in light of the ongoing recovery in the United States and in many economies
around the world, the Committee continues to expect inflation to move gradually back toward its
objective. The Committee will continue to assess incoming data carefully to ensure that policy is
consistent with attaining the FOMC’s longer-run objectives of maximum employment and
inflation of 2 percent.
This outlook is reflected in the individual economic projections submitted in conjunction
with this meeting by the FOMC participants. As always, each participant’s projections are
conditioned on his or her own views of appropriate monetary policy. The central tendency of the
unemployment rate projections is slightly lower than in the March projections and now stands at
6.0 to 6.1 percent at the end of this year. From there, Committee participants generally see the
unemployment rate declining to its longer-run normal level by the end of 2016. The central
tendency of the projections for real GDP growth is 2.1 to 2.3 percent for 2014, down notably
from the March projections, largely because of the unexpected contraction in the first quarter.
Over the next two years, the projections for real GDP growth remain somewhat above the
estimates of longer-run normal growth. Finally, FOMC participants continue to see inflation
moving only gradually back toward 2 percent over time as the economy expands. The central
tendency of the inflation projections is 1.5 to 1.7 percent in 2014, rising to 1.6 to 2 percent in
As I noted at the outset, the Committee decided today to make another measured
reduction in the pace of asset purchases. Starting next month, we will be purchasing $35 billion
of securities per month, down $10 billion per month from our current rate. Even after today’s
action takes effect, we will continue to expand our holdings of longer-term securities, and we
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will also continue to roll over maturing Treasury securities and reinvest principal payments from
the FOMC’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency
mortgage-backed securities. These sizable and still-increasing holdings will continue to put
downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and make financial
conditions more accommodative, helping to support job creation and a return of inflation to the
Committee’s objective.
Today’s announced reduction in the pace of asset purchases reflects the Committee’s
expectation that progress toward its economic objectives will continue. If incoming information
broadly supports the Committee’s expectation of ongoing improvement in labor markets and
inflation moving back over time toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely
continue to reduce the pace of asset purchases in measured steps at future meetings. However, as
I have emphasized before, purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee’s decisions
about the pace of purchases remain contingent on its outlook for jobs and inflation as well as its
assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.
Let me now turn to the framework we will be applying as we consider interest rate
policy. In determining how long to maintain the current 0 to ¼ percent target range for the
federal funds rate, the Committee will assess progress—both realized and expected —toward its
objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This broad assessment will not
hinge on any one or two indicators, but will take into account a wide range of information,
including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation
expectations, and readings on financial developments. Based on its current assessment of these
factors, the Committee anticipates that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target
range for the federal funds rate, for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends,
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especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run
goal, and longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored. Further, once we begin to
remove policy accommodation, it’s the Committee’s current assessment that, even after
employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for
some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as
normal in the longer run.
This guidance is consistent with the paths for appropriate policy as reported in the
participants’ projections, which show the federal funds rate for most participants remaining well
below longer-run normal values at the end of 2016. Although FOMC participants provide a
number of explanations for the federal funds rate target remaining below its longer-run normal
level, many cite the residual effects of the financial crisis. These include restrained household
spending, reduced credit availability, and diminished expectations for future growth in output
and incomes, consistent with the view that the potential growth rate of the economy may be
lower for some time.
Let me reiterate, however, that the Committee’s expectation for the path of the federal
funds rate target is contingent on the economic outlook. If the economy proves to be stronger
than anticipated by the Committee, resulting in a more rapid convergence of employment and
inflation to the FOMC’s objectives, then increases in the federal funds rate target are likely to
occur sooner and to be more rapid than currently envisaged. Conversely, if economic
performance disappoints, resulting in larger and more persistent deviations from the Committee’s
objectives, then increases in the federal funds rate target are likely to take place later and to be
more gradual.
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Before taking your questions, I’d like to provide an update on the Committee’s ongoing
discussions on the mechanics of normalizing the stance and conduct of monetary policy. To be
clear, these discussions are in no way intended to signal any imminent change in the stance of
monetary policy. Rather, they represent prudent planning on the part of the Committee and
reflect the Committee’s intention to communicate its plans to the public well before the first
steps in normalizing policy become appropriate.
The Committee is confident that it has the tools it needs to raise short-term interest rates
when it becomes appropriate to do so and to control the level of short-term interest rates
thereafter, even though the Federal Reserve will continue to have a very large balance sheet for
some time. The Committee’s recent discussions have centered on the appropriate mix of tools to
employ during the normalization process and the associated implications for the degree of
control over short-term interest rates, the functioning of the federal funds market, and the extent
to which the Federal Reserve transacts with financial institutions outside the banking sector. The
Committee is constructively working through the many issues related to normalization and will
continue its discussions in upcoming meetings, with the expectation of providing additional
details later this year.
Thank you. I’ll be happy to take your questions.
STEVE LIESMAN. Steve Liesman, CNBC. There is every reason to expect, Madam
Chair, that the PCE inflation rate, which is followed by the Fed, looks likely to exceed your 2016
consensus forecast next week. Does this suggest that the Federal Reserve is behind the curve on
inflation? And what tolerance is there for higher inflation at the Federal Reserve? And if it’s
above the 2 percent target, then how is that not kind of blowing through a target the same way
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you blew through the 6½ percent unemployment target in that they become these soft targets?
CHAIR YELLEN. Well, thanks for the question. So I think recent readings on, for
example, the CPI index have been a bit on the high side, but I think it’s—the data that we ’re
seeing is noisy. I think it’s important to remember that, broadly speaking, inflation is evolving in
line with the Committee’s expectations. The Committee, it has expected a gradual return in
inflation toward its 2 percent objective. And I think the recent evidence we have seen,
abstracting from the noise, suggests that we are moving back gradually over time toward our 2
percent objective, and I see things roughly in line with where we expected inflation to be. I think
if you look at the SEP projections that were submitted this time, you see very little change in
inflation projections of the Committee.
STEVE LIESMAN. What about the tolerance for higher inflation?
CHAIR YELLEN. Well, the Committee has emphasized that we have the 2 percent
objective for, as a longer-term matter, for PCE inflation and we would not willingly see a
prolonged period in which inflation persistently runs below our objective or above our objective,
and that remains true. So that hasn’t changed at all in terms of the Committee’s tolerance for
permanent deviations from our objective. And we continue to see the data coming in, abstracting
from the noise, in line with what we had expected, and continue to see a gradual pickup over the
next several years toward our 2 percent objective.
ROBIN HARDING. Robin Harding from the Financial Times. Madam Chair, could you
comment a little bit more on the decline in the long-run interest rate projection? Is that more to
do with temporary headwinds from the recovery or is it something more permanent about the
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economy? And is this it, this decline to 3.75 percent? Or do you think there’s potential for this
rate to go lower yet? Thank you.
CHAIR YELLEN. Well, you do see a very slight decline this time in the Committee’s
longer-term normal rate of interest projections. You know, I would caution you, however, we’ve
had turnover in the Committee—two new participants who joined and are submitting projections
and two who departed— and that can create changes in the projections, small changes that are
difficult to interpret. But I think it’s fair to say there has been a slight decline. And I think, you
know, the most likely reason for that is there has been some slight decline, as I mentioned in my
opening statement, of projections pertaining to longer-term growth, and typically estimates of the
longer-run normal federal funds rate or short-term interest rates would move in line with growth
projections.
YLAN MUI. Hi, Ylan from the Washington Post. My question is sort of the flip side of
Steve’s, and it’s about your outlook for unemployment. Your predecessor has said that the Fed
has been consistently too pessimistic about the level of the unemployment rate, and today, you
guys lowered your outlook again. Can you tell me a little bit more about how you see the
unemployment rate evolving to meet your forecast? Why you believe the rate of decline will
start to level off? And what an unexpected drop might mean for the first rate hike.
CHAIR YELLEN. So, it’s true that unemployment has declined by more than the
Committee expected and you do see a small downward revision in the Committee’s projections,
at least the central tendency for the unemployment rate. Now, first of all, I mean, the labor
market, I think, has continued to broadly improve. We have seen continued job growth at a pace
that is certainly sufficient to be diminishing labor market slack over time. Over the last three
months, for example, employment—payroll employment —has been rising around 230,000 jobs
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per month and we’re running close to 200,000 over the last year. So, it’s in no way surprising to
see a decline in the unemployment rate. That said, many of my colleagues and I would see a
portion of the decline in the unemployment rate as perhaps not representing a diminution of slack
in the labor market. We have seen labor force participation rate decline. And while I think most
of us would agree that there has been and will continue to be secular decline in the labor force
participation rate for demographic reasons, I think a portion of the decline we’ve seen in the
unemployment rate probably reflects a kind of shadow unemployment or discouragement, a
cyclical part of labor force participation. Now, if that’s correct, we may see that as the economy
picks up steam and we see further recovery in the labor market, that those, let’s call them
discouraged workers, will return either to unemployment or to employment. And as labor force
participation begins to stabilize, the unemployment rate will come down less quickly. And I
think for a number of people, that’s a component of the forecast.
You asked about implications for the path of policy and I would just say, the guidance
that we’ve given, our forward guidance, states that the timing of liftoff will depend on actual
progress we see and the progress we expect to see going forward in terms of achieving both of
our goals, namely maximum employment and our 2 percent inflation objective. So, we’re not
going to look at any single indicator like the unemployment rate to assess how we’re doing on
meeting our employment goal; we will look at a broad range of indicators. That said, as I tried to
emphasize in my opening statement, there is uncertainty about monetary policy. The appropriate
path of policy, the timing in pace of interest rate increases, ought to and I believe will respond to
unfolding economic developments. If those were to prove faster than the Committee expects, it
would be logical to expect a more rapid increase in the fed funds rate. But the opposite also
holds true. If we don’t see the improvement that’s projected in the baseline outlook, that the
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opposite would be true and the pace of the timing and pace of interest rate increases would be
later and more gradual.
JON HILSENRATH. Jon Hilsenrath from the Wall Street Journal. Chair Yellen, some
Fed officials and some market commentators have noted that market conditions recently have
looked a little bit like they did last spring before a period of turbulence. Volatility is very low in
stock and bond markets. Risk premiums are very low, and in particular, the market expectations
for interest rates, for short-term interest rates look below even the Fed’s own projections as laid
out in your dot plot. I wanted to ask two questions related to that. One, what is your read on
these—on market activity , and are you at all concerned about a sense of complacency in
markets? And, two, what is your view on market expectations for the rate hike cycle that the Fed
has laid out in its dot plot? Or, is the market where you think the Fed is on that?
CHAIR YELLEN. Well, I mean, I’d start by saying that volatility, both actual and
expected, in markets is at low levels. The FOMC has no target for what the right level of
volatility should be. But to the extent that low levels of volatility may induce risk-taking
behavior that, for example, entails excessive buildup in leverage or maturity extension, things
that can pose risks to financial stability later on, that is a concern to me and to the Committee. I
don’t know whether a number of reasons have been cited for what we’re seeing in the
marketplace. I don’t know if overconfidence or complacency is one of those reasons. But I
guess I would say, it is important, as I emphasized in my opening statement, for market
participants to recognize that there is uncertainty about what the path of interest rates—short -
term rates—will be. And that’s necessary because there’s uncertainty about what the path of the
economy will be. And I want to emphasize, as I have, that the FOMC will adjust policy to what
it actually sees unfolding in the economy over time, and that necessarily gives rise to a certain
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level of uncertainty about what the path of rates will be. And it is important for market
participants to factor that into their decisionmaking. You asked me about the dot plot—our
forecast, or our projections, for the fed funds rate—and you do see a range of disagreement
among the participants there, so by the time you get to 2016, there is a considerable range of
opinion, and I think, in part, that reflects the uncertainty that I’m talking about—that participants
do see different pace of recovery, different trajectories for inflation, and it’s appropriate for them
to adjust their thinking about what the path of policy should be to their own view of how the
economy will evolve over time. And around each of those dots, I think every participant who’s
filling out that questionnaire has a considerable band of uncertainty around their own individual
BINYAMIN APPELBAUM. Binya Appelbaum, New York Times. You’ve spoken about
the sense that the recession has done permanent damage to the economic output and you’ve
reduced gradually over time your forecast of long-term growth. I am curious to know to what
extent you think stronger monetary and/or fiscal policy could reverse those trends. Are we stuck
with slower growth? Is there something that you can do about it? If so, what? If not, why?
CHAIR YELLEN. Well, I think part of the reason that we are seeing slower growth in
potential output may reflect the fact that capital investment has been very weak during the
downturn in the long recovery that we’re experiencing. So, a diminished contribution from
capital formation to growth does make a negative contribution to growth. And as the economy
picks up, I certainly would hope to see that contribution restored. So, I think that’s one of the
factors that’s been operative. Of course, we’ve had unusually long duration unemployment. A
very large fraction of those unemployed have been unemployed for more than six months. And
there is the fear that those individuals find it harder to gain employment, that their attachment to
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the labor force may diminish over time and the networks of contacts that are—they have that are
helpful in gaining employment can begin to erode over time. We could see what’s known as
hysteresis, where individuals, because they haven’t had jobs for a long time, find themselves
permanently outside the labor force. My hope would be that as—and my expectation is that as
the economy recovers, we will see some repair of that, that many of those individuals who were
long-term unemployed or those who are now counted as out of the labor force would take jobs if
the economy is stronger and would be drawn back in again, but it is conceivable that there is
some permanent damage there to them, to their own well-being, their family’s well-being, and
the economy’s potential.
CRAIG TORRES. Thank you, Madam Chair. I believe you mentioned in your opening
remarks tighter credit, and I’m wondering what you think of the possibility that the Federal
Reserve itself, with the regulations it has to impose under Dodd-Frank, is partly responsible for
that. And, second, the current trend toward litigation. I recently read something where just the
three largest banks in the U.S. have paid $51 billion dollars in fines so far, and obviously, the
number is rising. So, why would anybody loan to a near-prime borrower? And, in fact, if you
look at Federal Reserve Bank of New York research, here we are, five years into the expansion,
and people below FICO of 700 are having worse credit experiences. So it probably isn’t
because, you know, unemployment’s declining. It’s probably because banks simply don’t want
to take the risk. So, as the nation’s top bank regulator, what can you do to fix that?
CHAIR YELLEN. So, I first would start by saying that I really think it’s essential in the
aftermath of this crisis to strengthen financial regulation and to make the financial system more
robust and to reduce systemic risk. We can see what the costs of the financial crisis were and I
don’t think any of us should want to see that repeated. So, I think the regulations that we’ve put
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in place, most of which follow from Dodd-Frank, are highly appropriate to create a more robust
financial system that will be a safer and sounder one for our economy going forward, and I think
we’re making progress on doing that. In putting regulations into place, we have tried to phase
them in, in a way that gives long enough lead times to make sure that in strengthening the
financial system, we don’t produce a credit crunch. And by and large, my own assessment is that
credit is broadly available in the economy, but there are some exceptions, and I would agree with
much of what you said when it comes to mortgage credit. I think banks, at this point, are
reluctant to lend to borrowers with lower FICO scores. They mention in meetings with us
consistently their concerns about putback risk, and I think they are—it is difficult for any
homeowner who doesn’t have pristine credit these days to get a mortgage. I think that is one of
the factors that is causing the housing recovery to be slow. It’s not the only one, but I would
agree with that assessment. And of course, you know, there were a lot of practices in connection
with mortgage lending that really needed to be changed, we don’t want to go back to those days,
but it is important to clarify— for us to work to clarify the rules around mortgage lending to
create an environment of greater certainty for lenders to be willing to extend mortgage credit.
JASON LANGE. Good afternoon, Jason Lange with Reuters. Chair Yellen, the Fed has
slashed its growth projections for this year, and you’ve gone to pains to explain that there is
uncertainty in the path of interest rates in the economy, and yet the Fed central tendency
projections for 2015 and 2016 remain quite strong. Are you confident that the U.S. economy has
entered a period of sustained above-trend economic growth? Thank you.
CHAIR YELLEN. Well, when you say “confident,” I suppose the answer is “no”
because there is uncertainty, but I think there are many good reasons why we should see a period
of sustained growth in excess of the economy’s potential. We have a highly accommodative
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monetary policy. We have diminishing fiscal drag. We have easing credit conditions. We have
households who are becoming more comfortable with their debt levels and more able to service
that debt, an improving job market. We have rising home prices and rising equity prices and an
improving global economy, at least in my estimation. So I think all of those things ought to be
working to produce above-trend growth and I think that’s what’s reflected in the forecast. But,
nevertheless, as I said, of course there is uncertainty around that projection. You know,
nevertheless, the labor market has continued to improve, and over a number of years in which,
admittedly, growth has come in at a disappointing level, we’ve still seen the labor market
broadly improve, and I expect that to continue.
STEVEN BECKNER. Steve Beckner with MNI, Madam Chair. You mentioned that
there were discussions of the mechanics of normalization, as you put it. I assume that that
involved some review of the—it was the third anniversary of the June 2011 exit principles. I
wonder if I could get you to elaborate. In particular, is the Committee reaching a consensus
about the reinvestment and rollover policies, the timing of discontinuing those policies? And I’d
be interested in your personal view on that.
CHAIR YELLEN. Well, reinvestment policy was included in our 2011 exit principles,
and it’s one of the things that we are discussing and reconsidering. We have not yet reached—
we’ve made quite a lot of progress in our discussion, but we’ve not yet reached conclusions
about that or other aspects of our package. There are a couple of things Chairman Bernanke
indicated, in contrast to our 2011 principles, that we would be very unlikely to sell mortgage-
backed securities, and that remains the case. Broadly speaking, some of the principles that were
incorporated in those—in that 2011 package, the notion that we fully expect our balance sheet to
shrink considerably over time back toward more normal levels, toward levels that would be
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consistent with efficiently conducting monetary policy, that’s still an expectation. I believe it’s
an expectation that eventually our portfolio will be—consist largely of T reasuries, eventually,
but there are quite a number of details. We have a number—as you know , a number of tools that
we can deploy as we move to normalize policy: interest on excess reserves, our overnight RRP
facility, term repurchase agreements with the markets, our Term Deposit Facility, and exactly
how to deploy that set of tools to meet our objective of raising short—the general level of short -
term rates when the time becomes appropriate, and how best to communicate to the public and to
markets how we are conducting policy and what our objectives are. Those are things we’re
discussing and hope we will be able to come back with a full description, or let’s think of it as a
revised set of exit principles, later this year.
DONNA BORAK. Madam Chair, Donna Borak with American Banker. One of the
outstanding reform issues on the plate of the Fed is to handle the risk related to short-term
wholesale funding. You’ve been very supportive of this issue, but we’ve really heard little
progress so far on where things stand. Can you please explain to us why it’s taken so long to get
this proposal out? What are some of the aspects that the Fed is considering in their approach to
how they roll out this rule, and where we may be in that process? Thank you.
CHAIR YELLEN. So I’m afraid that I can’t give you a detailed timetable for when we
will move forward with that rule. I’ve been supportive, Governor Tarullo and others have been
supportive, of taking some action to diminish the incentives for heavy reliance on short-term
funding. We still see that as one of the risks to the financial system that wasn’t really addressed
in the risk-based capital requirements that we put out or in the liquidity coverage ratio that’s out
for proposal. Governor Tarullo has suggested one approach could be to impose a capital
requirement that’s related to reliance on wholesale funding, and in my own past comments, I’ve
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been supportive, but I’m afraid at this point—and this remains very much on the table to take
some action to address this—i t certainly remains on the table as an unfinished agenda item, but I
don’t have a detailed timetable for you.
DONNA BORAK. Would it be at some point before the end of the year, at least? Can
you say that much?
CHAIR YELLEN. I’m not— I’m just not certain. I’m— I just don’t have a detailed
timetable for you, I’m sorry.
GREG IP. Madam Chair, Greg Ip of the Economist. This is partly a follow-up to Steve
Liesman’s question. How would the Committee respond if inflation did temporarily move above
target in the near term before you achieve full employment? Your colleague John Williams and
the IMF have both suggested that the Committee might consider allowing inflation to
temporarily overshoot because that might achieve a faster, larger improvement in employment.
Second question is: Will financial stability considerations play a role in when and how fast the
Committee normalizes interest rates?
CHAIR YELLEN. So with respect to the question of overshooting, let me start by saying
that inflation continues to run well below our objective, and we’re still some ways away from
maximum employment. And for the moment, I don’t see any tradeoff whatsoever in achieving
our two objectives. They both call for the same policy—namely , a highly accommodative
monetary policy. So, at best, overshooting of inflation or the thought that we will reach our
inflation objective before we have attained maximum employment, I suppose I would see, at
most, as a risk that we could face somewhere down the road. Symmetrically, it’s also
conceivably a risk that we would reach our maximum employment objective before we’ve
actually attained our inflation objective. So there are different ways in which we could
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conceivably—or there could conceivably arise policy conflicts or tradeoff s somewhere down the
Now, quite some time ago, the FOMC adopted, and we reaffirmed just in January, a
statement on our longer-run goals and policy strategy. And what that statement said is that, first
of all, whenever either inflation or employment are away from their preferred or mandate-
consistent levels, it will always be the FOMC’s policy to make sure that we get back to those
target levels over the medium term. But a principle that’s embodied in that statement is that the
Committee will follow a so-called balanced approach in deciding on its policies. And,
essentially, that means that when we see some conflict between achieving the two objectives,
that we would consider in deciding on a policy just how far we are from achieving each of the
objectives. And if the distance from achieving an objective is particularly large, it would be
consistent with a balanced approach that we would tolerate some movement in the opposite
direction on the other objective. But balanced approach is the general policy strategy I think
we’d follow.
MICHAEL MCKEE. Michael McKee from Bloomberg Television and Radio. I’d like to
ask you about your signaling mechanism going forward. At this point you haven’t decided on
reinvestments. You’ve told people, don’t pay any attention to the dot plot, and your two
mandates, inflation and unemployment, are backward-looking lagging indicators. So, if
something should surprise in the economy with only four SEPs and press conferences a year,
how do you signal to the markets what the Fed is doing so that you don’t run the risk of an event
like last September when people were surprised, or some sort of credibility problem where
people feel you’re falling behind the economy?
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CHAIR YELLEN. Well, you know, again, we are very attentive to unfolding economic
developments and understand that there can be surprises and twists and turns in the road, so that
the forecasts that we’ve made become no longer appropriate and we need to respond to unfolding
developments. I’m personally committed to communicating with the public whenever
communication is appropriate. We have four press conferences, but I would feel it appropriate
for me to either have additional communications meetings with the press or to give speeches or
to, in a variety of opportunities I have, to make clear what the Committee’s thinking is, and my
colleagues as well, I think, would feel it entirely appropriate to communicate changes— changes
in our views.
PEDRO DA COSTA. Hi, I’m Pedro da Costa from Dow Jones Newswires. Thank you
very much. Since we are currently having a World Cup, I thought it would be valid to ask a
question about the world. And I’m surprised— a little surprised at the optimism of your forecast
given some, you know, the darkening outlook overseas. You’ve got conflict in the Ukraine,
escalation of war in Iraq with implications for oil prices that potentially have global economic
impact. You have— excuse me—a European recovery that ’s still fairly weak, and emerging
markets that are slowing down sharply. Do you think the U.S. can be a lone engine of economic
recovery globally? And if I could just follow up very quickly on Greg’s question, because you
talked about the two sides of the mandate, but you didn’t quite answer the financial stability part.
Do you think—is financial stability currently preventing the Fed from being more
accommodative than it would like? And if not, when do you expect that to happen, if at all?
Thank you.
CHAIR YELLEN. So, let me— I’m sorry I didn’t answer the last part of Greg’s question
and the last part of yours. Let me start there. With respect to financial stability, we monitor
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potential threats to financial stability very, very carefully, and we have spoken about some— I’ve
spoken in recent congressional testimonies and speeches about some threats to financial stability
that are on our radar screen, that we are monitoring. Trends in leveraged lending and the
underwriting standards there, diminished risk spreads in lower-grade corporate bonds—high -
yield bonds—have certainly caught our attention. There is some evidence of reach-for-yield
behavior. That’s one of the reasons I mentioned that this environment of low volatility is very
much on my radar screen and would be a concern to me if it prompted an increase in leverage or
other kinds of risk-taking behavior that could unwind in a sharp way and provoke a sharp, for
example, jump in interest rates. And we’ve seen what effect that can have on the global
economy, and I think it’s something that it’s important to avoid.
But broadly speaking, if the question is, to what extent is monetary policy, at this time,
being driven by financial stability concerns, I would say that—well, I would never take off the
table that monetary policy should—could, in some circumstances , respond. I don’t see them
shaping monetary policy in an important way right now. I don’t see a broad-based increase in
leverage, rapid increase in credit growth or maturity transformation, the kinds of broad trends
that would suggest to me that the level of financial stability risks has risen above a moderate
level. And we are using supervisory tools and regulations both to make the financial system
more robust and to pay particular attention to areas where we’ve spotted concerns, like leveraged
lending, which is very much a focus of our supervision.
Now, let’s see. There was a first part to your question, and the first part was about global
risks, and we always pay attention to global risks and the likely evolution of the global economy.
You expressed a lot of pessimism about emerging markets, and I see it more likely that we’ll see
moderate growth and a pickup there. Of course, there are geopolitical risks—the Middle East ,
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developments in Iraq, of course. They’re not only a humanitarian concern; they are a concern
with respect, potentially, to energy supplies and prices, and so I would certainly list that as
something in the category of risks to the outlook.
PETER BARNES. Peter Barnes with Fox Business, ma’am. Can I—just to follow up a
little bit on what Pedro asked about. Specifically, what about equity markets? I mean, right
now, today, the S&P 500 is on track to close at a—another record high. You have said that you
have not seen any evidence of bubbles in equity markets, and that they have been trading within
historic norms. Is that still the case today? Thank you.
CHAIR YELLEN. So I don’t have a sense—the Committee doesn’t try to gauge what is
the right level of equity prices. But we do certainly monitor a number of different metrics that
give us a feeling for where valuations are relative to things like earnings or dividends, and look
at where these metrics stand in comparison with previous history to get a sense of whether or not
we’re moving to valuation levels that are outside of historical norms, and I still don’t see that. I
still don’t see that for equity prices broadly.
ANNALYN KURTZ. Annalyn Kurtz with CNNMoney. Thank you, Chair Yellen. I’m
wondering: What’s the Fed’s general expectation for wage growth this year and next year? And
if inflation outpaces wage growth, does that scenario make you more hesitant to raise the federal
funds rate next year? Or if, conversely, wages rise just enough to keep up with inflation, they’re
moving in lockstep, let’s say, is that enough to satisfy what you’re looking for in the job market?
CHAIR YELLEN. Well, thanks. That’s a great question. You know, I see
compensation growth, broadly speaking, as having been very well contained. By most measures,
compensation growth is running around 2 percent. So that’s real wage growth or real
compensation growth that’s essentially flat rather than rising, and real wage growth really has
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not been rising in line with productivity. My own expectation is that as the labor market begins
to tighten, we will see wage growth pick up some to the point where real wage growth, where
compensation or nominal wages are rising more rapidly than inflation, so households are getting
a real increase in their take-home pay. And within limits—well, that might be signs of a tighter
labor market. Within limits, it’s not a threat to inflation because consistent with the level of
inflation we have for our 2 percent inflation objective, we could see wages growing at a more
rapid rate and—a somewhat more rapid rate—a nd, indeed, that would be part of my forecast of
what we would see as the labor market picks up. If we were to fail to see that, frankly, I would
worry about downside risk to consumer spending. So I think part of my confidence in the fact
that we’ll see a pickup in growth relates to the fact that I think consumer spending will continue
to grow at a healthy rate. And, in part, that’s premised on some pickup in the rate of wage
growth so that it’s rising greater—more than inflation.
MARTIN CRUTSINGER. Marty Crutsinger, Associated Press. Today’s statement
repeated a phrase that’s been used—that the C ommittee has been using, that there’s likely to be a
“considerable” period between the end of the bond purchases and the first hike in the federal
funds rate. In March, you gave us some guidance to help—trying to help us to understand that
by saying that that—it’ s hard to define, but it could mean six months. Is that a time frame that
you feel—still feel comfortable with? And, if you feel like it needs to be modified, do you—
could you give us an assessment of—t he market seemed to expect a rate, the first rate hike in the
second half of next year. Is that a good assessment?
CHAIR YELLEN. So what I want to say, the guidance that I want to give you, is that
there is no mechanical formula whatsoever for what a “considerable time” means. The answer as
to what it means is, it depends. It depends on how the economy progresses. The Committee said
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very clearly in their statement that what they would be looking at and deciding on the timing of
interest rate increases would be the progress we’re making in achieving our objectives, how far
we are from achieving our labor market objective and our inflation objective, and that we will be
assessing that progress, and that’s the key determinant of when interest rate increases are likely
MARTIN CRUTSINGER. Next year?
CHAIR YELLEN. There is no mechanical formula.
GREG ROBB. Thank you. Greg Robb from MarketWatch. There was a report this
week, in a salmon-colored newspaper I won’t mention, that the Fed is thinking about—and
regulators in Washington are thinking about—an exit fee for bond mutual funds. This has
sparked a lot of comments. Would you care to comment on this?
CHAIR YELLEN. I am not aware of any discussion of that topic inside the Federal
Reserve, and my understanding is that that is a matter that is under the purview of the SEC.