FOMC Press Conference - 2017-12-13
Central bank: fed | Type: press_conference | Date: 2017-12-13

December 13, 2017 Chair Yellen’s Press Conference FINAL
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Transcript of Chair Yellen’s Press Conference
December 13, 2017
CHAIR YELLEN. Good afternoon. Today the Federal Open Market Committee decided
to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by ¼ percentage point, bringing it to 1¼ to
1½ percent. Our decision reflects our assessment that a gradual removal of monetary policy
accommodation will sustain a strong labor market while fostering a return of inflation to
2 percent, consistent with the maximum employment and price stability objectives assigned to us
by law. Before saying more about our decision, I’ll review recent economic developments and
the outlook.
Following a slowdown in the first quarter, economic growth stepped up to a solid
3¼ percent pace in the second and third quarters of the year. Household spending has been
expanding at a moderate rate, business investment has picked up, and favorable economic
conditions abroad have supported exports. Overall, we continue to expect that the economy will
expand at a moderate pace. While changes in tax policy will likely provide some lift to
economic activity in coming years, the magnitude and timing of the macroeconomic effects of
any tax package remain uncertain.
Smoothing through hurricane-related fluctuations, job gains averaged 170,000 per month
over the three months ending in November, well above estimates of the pace necessary to absorb
new entrants to the labor force. The unemployment rate has declined further in recent months
and, at 4.1 percent in November, was modestly below the median of FOMC participants’
estimates of its longer-run normal level. Broader measures of labor market utilization have also
continued to strengthen. Participation in the labor force has changed little, on net, over the past
four years. Given the underlying downward trend in participation stemming largely from the
aging of the U.S. population, a relatively steady participation rate is a further sign of improved
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conditions in the labor market. We expect that the job market will remain strong in the years
You may have noticed that we altered the statement language about the labor market
outlook. This change highlights that the Committee expects the labor market to remain strong,
with sustained job creation, ample opportunities for workers, and rising wages. We anticipate
some further strengthening in labor market conditions in the months ahead; however, we expect
the pace of job gains to moderate over time as we gradually reduce the degree of monetary
policy accommodation. Allowing the labor market to overheat would raise the risk that
monetary policy would need to tighten abruptly at a later stage, jeopardizing the economic
expansion.
Even with a firming of economic growth and a stronger labor market, inflation has
continued to run below the FOMC’s 2 percent longer-run objective. The 12-month change in the
price index for personal consumption expenditures was 1.6 percent in October, up a bit from the
summer but still below rates seen earlier in the year. Core inflation—which excludes the volatile
food and energy categories—has followed a similar pattern and was 1.4 percent in October. We
continue to believe that this year’s surprising softness in inflation primarily reflects transitory
developments that are largely unrelated to broader economic conditions. As a result, we still
expect inflation will move up and stabilize around 2 percent over the next couple of years.
Nonetheless, as I’ve noted previously, our understanding of the forces driving inflation is
imperfect. As emphasized in our statement, we will carefully monitor actual and expected
inflation developments relative to our symmetric inflation goal. And, as I’ve noted before, we
are prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed to achieve our inflation and employment
objectives over the medium term.
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Let me turn to the economic projections that Committee participants submitted for this
meeting. As always, participants conditioned their projections on their own individual views of
appropriate monetary policy, which, in turn, depend on each participant’s assessment of the
many factors that shape the outlook. The median projection for growth of inflation-adjusted
gross domestic product, or real GDP, is 2½ percent this year and next and moderates to 2 percent
by 2020, a bit above its estimated longer-run rate. The median projection for the unemployment
rate stands at 4.1 percent in the fourth quarter of this year and runs close to 4 percent over the
next three years, modestly below the median estimate of its longer-run normal rate. Finally, the
median inflation projection is 1.7 percent this year, 1.9 percent next year, and 2 percent in 2019
and 2020. Compared with the projections made in September, real GDP growth is a little
stronger, the unemployment rate is a bit lower, and inflation is essentially unchanged.
Participants generally identified changes in tax policy as a factor supporting this modestly
stronger outlook, although many noted that much uncertainty remains about the macroeconomic
effects of the specific measures that ultimately may be implemented.
Returning to monetary policy, for the past two years the FOMC has been gradually
increasing its target range for the federal funds rate as the economy has continued to make
progress toward our goals of maximum employment and price stability. Our decision today
continues this process.
We still expect that the ongoing strength of the economy will warrant gradual increases in
the federal funds rate. That expectation is based on our view that this rate remains somewhat
below its neutral level—that is, the level that is neither expansionary nor contractionary and
keeps the economy operating on an even keel. Because the neutral rate currently appears to be
quite low by historical standards, the federal funds rate would not have to rise much further to
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get to a neutral policy stance. But because we also expect the neutral level of the federal funds
rate to rise somewhat over time, additional gradual rate hikes are likely to be appropriate over the
next few years to sustain a strong labor market and stabilize inflation around our 2 percent
longer-run objective. Even so, the Committee continues to anticipate that the longer-run neutral
level of the federal funds rate is likely to remain below levels that prevailed in previous decades.
This view is consistent with participants’ projections of appropriate monetary policy.
The median projection for the federal funds rate is 2.1 percent at the end of next year, 2.7 percent
at the end of 2019, and 3.1 percent in 2020. Compared with the projections made in September,
the median path for the federal funds rate is unchanged through 2019 and a touch higher in 2020.
I should note that the economic outlook is highly uncertain, and participants will adjust
their assessments of the appropriate path for the federal funds rate as their economic outlooks
and views of the risks to the outlook change. Policy is not on a preset course.
Additionally, the Committee’s balance sheet normalization program, initiated in October,
is proceeding. As we’ve noted previously, changing the target range for the federal funds rate is
our primary means of adjusting the stance of monetary policy, and we do not foresee a need to
alter our balance sheet normalization program. Hence, our statement no longer mentions this
program. Of course, we would be prepared to resume reinvestments if a material deterioration in
the economic outlook were to warrant a sizable reduction in the federal funds rate.
Finally, I’d like to note that, although I have one more FOMC meeting to attend in the
New Year, this will be my last scheduled news conference. Over the next month and a half, I
will do my utmost to ensure a smooth transition to my designated successor, Jay Powell. I am
confident that he is as deeply committed as I have been to the Federal Reserve’s vital public
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mission. Thank you for being such an attentive audience these past four years. And, as always,
I’ll be happy to take your questions.
MARTIN CRUTSINGER. I’m Marty Crutsinger, Associated Press. Madam Chair,
could you give us any insight into the discussion and how it dealt with the major tax changes that
Congress is considering now? There have been thoughts that with these changes happening at a
time when the economy is already—with unemployment so low—that the Fed may be forced to
increase its pace on rate hikes. Did any of that discussion come up in your meeting?
CHAIR YELLEN. So, yes, we did discuss tax policy, and let me say that most of my
colleagues factored in the prospect of fiscal stimulus along the lines of what’s being
contemplated by Congress into their projections. Now, I should emphasize that some have been
incorporating those expectations into their projections throughout the year, so changes to the
projections that you see since September should not be viewed as an impact—an estimate of the
impact of the tax package. And, in particular, broader expectations of changes to fiscal policy
have been reflected in financial market conditions, I think, over the past year. For example, we
have seen a significant increase in the stock market, and at least some portion of that, I would
judge, likely partly reflected expected tax changes, and that effect—along with other financial
market effects, which affects, for example, projected consumer spending and would have
affected wealth—that’s been part of participants’ forecasts now for some time. I think my
colleagues and I are in line with the general expectation among most economists that the type of
tax changes that are likely to be enacted would tend to provide some modest lift to GDP growth
in the coming years, and you see that—in part, that’s one of the reasons, I think, for the uptick
you see in estimated growth and decline in the unemployment rate.
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The views of participants, I believe, have been informed by a wide range of analysis,
including that of the Joint Committee on Taxation and other outside evaluators, and my sense is
that their estimates are essentially in the same ballpark, although they recognize, as I
emphasized, that there is considerable uncertainty about the impacts, and that will have to be
monitored over time. More specifically, they tend to see the package as boosting both consumer
spending and capital spending, to some extent.
Now, to the extent that the changes do have positive impact on the growth of potential
GDP and longer-run growth, let me just say that this is something that, should it occur, would be
very welcome to participants, as long as it’s consistent with the attainment of our employment
and inflation objectives. I guess I would also urge you to remember that when you look at the
projections, that there are many factors that affect those projections, and changes in tax policy—
that’s only one of a number of factors, including incoming data that has, to some extent, altered
the outlook for growth and inflation. All of that factors into the projections you see.
But I think, bottom line, when you look at assessments of the funds rate path, participants
continue to see gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate as being
appropriate to sustain a strong labor market and bring inflation back to 2 percent. And, look—
importantly, there is a lot of uncertainty about what the likely effects will be, and my colleagues
and I will be committed, as always, to evaluating incoming data and altering the outlook as
appropriate.
HARRIET TORRY. Harriet Torry with Dow Jones Newswires. You and others at the
Fed have said that soft inflation should be transitory. Are you confident that that will still be the
case, particularly regarding wage gains? They’ve been pretty moderate in recent months, yet the
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economy is growing and confidence is high. Is there something going on in the economy that’s
making it difficult for businesses to raise wages?
CHAIR YELLEN. So it is true that incoming wage data suggests only modest upward
pressure on wages. That leaves me—that’s one factor, along with the fact that inflation remains
low—with feeling that even though we have a 4.1 percent unemployment rate, that the labor
market is not overheated at this point. Remember, the modest pace of wage gains also probably
reflects slow productivity growth. But when you ask me about the outlook for inflation, you
know, I’ve talked in detail about this in the past and recognize that there is uncertainty about
what’s holding inflation down. But my colleagues and I continue to believe that the factors that
are responsible this year for holding inflation down are likely to prove transitory. That said, we
all agree that our inflation objective is extremely important. We recognize that there’s been a
prolonged shortfall. This is a symmetric 2 percent inflation objective, and we continue to
indicate that we’ll be monitoring inflation developments closely. And so this is on the horizon
and recognized to be one of the risks facing policy.
NICK TIMIRAOS. Thank you. Nick Timiraos, the Wall Street Journal. Chair Yellen, I
wanted to follow up on the question about tax changes. When you addressed it earlier today, and
when you spoke to Congress last month, you often describe that you would welcome higher
growth in the context of the employment and inflation mandate. And I guess I wonder how you
judge the major provisions of the House and Senate tax plans: the corporate rate cut, immediate
expensing of big-ticket purchases, new rates for pass-throughs, temporary rate cuts for
individuals. Do you see those, on balance, boosting the productive capacity of the U.S. economy
as opposed to simply increasing aggregate demand? And, related to that, how would you view
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the benefit of such tax changes now, when the economy is nearing full employment, versus at
earlier periods when there was greater resource slack?
CHAIR YELLEN. So I think my colleagues and I mainly see the likely tax package as
boosting aggregate demand, but also having some potential to boost aggregate supply. So
changes on the corporate tax side—the reduction in the corporate tax rate, expensing—will lower
the cost of capital. And while there are a range of estimates and uncertainty about how much
stimulus that will provide to investment, in general I would see some stimulus to investment.
In terms of aggregate supply effects, a stronger pace of investment could boost capital
formation and thereby raise productivity growth and potential GDP or output to some extent.
Exactly how large those effects might be remain uncertain, but that is a channel. And I suppose
it’s also possible—I’m uncertain how significant this would be—that lower marginal effective
tax rates for those groups that will see them could boost labor supply. And, again, there are a
range of estimates in the literatures.
I indicated I think participants have reviewed a number of pieces of analysis, including
the Joint Committee on Taxation estimates, and the many outside analysts who have weighed in
on this and been influenced by that kind of analysis—but there is a good deal of uncertainty
about what the impacts would be. And, to the extent that there are larger impacts than those
analyses assume on aggregate supply or potential GDP, in the context of an economy that has
had disturbingly low productivity growth, that would be welcome and could support faster GDP
growth, at least for some period, without—you know, without creating a need to tighten
monetary policy to offset that.
So there are potentially both demand and supply effects here. So, importantly, you really
don’t, at the end of the day, see very much change in the federal funds rate path. Participants do
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recognize that the unemployment rate is lower than their estimates of its long-run sustainable
rate, so I think we are in the vicinity of full employment.
HEATHER LONG. Heather Long from the Washington Post. You have mentioned that
the Committee thinks there will be wage increases next year. I’m wondering if you could clarify
if that is coming in part or mostly from the changes to the tax plan. Is that what the expectation
is, would drive the wage increases? And I was also wondering, I’ve heard from so many female
economists in academia and at the Fed about what an inspiration you’ve been to them and how
melancholy they will be to see you go. I was wondering if you just had any final words to young
females and minorities who may be looking to enter economics or a banking profession and rise
to your level.
CHAIR YELLEN. I’m sorry, remind me of the first part of your question. [Laughter]
HEATHER LONG. Wages.
CHAIR YELLEN. Wages, yes.
HEATHER LONG. Is the tax policy driving wage increase expectations?
CHAIR YELLEN. Well, I think, generally, in a strong labor market where many firms
are having difficulty finding qualified workers, we would expect, just through normal demand
and supply channels, to see some upward pressure on wage growth over time. And as the labor
market is tightened, we’ve seen some very gradual drift upward in wage gains. They remain—it
remains at a low level, but I would expect, in the context of an ongoing strong labor market, to
see some upward pressure. And I believe that’s the main thing that my colleagues are
factoring in.
On your question on advice to women and minorities, in the Federal Reserve, my
colleagues and I are very focused on wanting to see and do what we can to foster greater
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participation of women and minorities in economics. We would love to, if we could, increase
our hiring ourselves of women and minorities, and we see that both women and minorities are
studying economics in disproportionately and disturbingly low numbers. Although the women
in STEM fields generally are about even with men—represent about 50 percent—in economics,
women majors constitute something like 30 percent of undergraduate majors, and there is
disproportionate low enrollment of minorities.
I will just say, from my own experience, I think economics is a terrific field. I’ve
thoroughly enjoyed my career in economics and think there are many different paths that people
can follow that lead to satisfying careers, and that there are very interesting and important
questions that economics addresses. And it is a great field, and I would like to encourage greater
involvement and think that people will find that satisfying. And, just in terms of the kinds of
research that’s done in the field, I think also a greater diversity, more women and minorities,
may change the focus to some extent of the questions that people choose to look at and the
analysis that they bring and a range of thinking that bears on research. And all of that would be a
healthy development.
STEVE LIESMAN. Steve Liesman, CNBC. Every day, it seems, we look at the stock
market, it goes up triple digits in the Dow Jones. To what extent are there concerns at the
Federal Reserve about current market valuations, and do they now or should they, do you think,
if we keep going on this trajectory—should that animate monetary policy? Finally, maybe as a
sign of what’s been going on with valuations, this cryptocurrency called bitcoin keeps going up
every day. What is the policy of the central bank of the United States of the introduction, use,
and incredible rise in popularity of bitcoin?
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CHAIR YELLEN. Okay. So let me start, Steve, with the stock market generally. I
mean, of course the stock market has gone up a great deal this year, and we have in recent
months characterized the general level of asset valuations as “elevated.” What that reflects is
simply the assessment that, looking at price/earnings ratios and comparable metrics for other
assets other than equities, we see ratios that are at the high end of historical ranges—and so that’s
worth pointing out. But economists are not great at knowing what appropriate valuations are.
We don’t have a terrific record, and the fact that those valuations are high doesn’t mean that they
are necessarily overvalued.
We are in a—I’ve mentioned this in my opening statement, and we’ve talked about this
repeatedly—likely a low interest rate environment, lower than we’ve had in past decades. And if
that turns out to be the case, that’s a factor that supports higher valuations. We’re enjoying solid
economic growth with low inflation, and the risks in the global economy look more balanced
than they have in many years. So I think what we need to and are trying to think through is, if
there were an adjustment in asset valuations or the stock market, what impact would that have on
the economy, and would it provoke financial stability concerns? And I think when we look at
other indicators of financial stability risks, there’s nothing flashing red there or possibly even
orange. We have a much more resilient, stronger banking system, and we’re not seeing some
worrisome buildup in leverage or credit growth at successive levels.1 So, you know, this is
something that the FOMC pays attention to, but if you ask me, is this a significant factor shaping
monetary policy now, well, it’s on the list of risks, it’s not a major—it’s not a major factor.
And then you asked about bitcoin, and there I would simply say that bitcoin at this time
plays a very small role in the payment system. It is not a stable source of—store of value, and it
1 Chair Yellen intended to say that credit growth is not at excessive levels.
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doesn’t constitute legal tender. It is a highly speculative asset, and the Fed doesn’t really play
any role—any regulatory role with respect to bitcoin other than assuring that banking
organizations that we do supervise are attentive, that they’re appropriately managing any
interactions they have with participants in that market and appropriately monitoring anti-money-
laundering Bank Secrecy Act, you know, responsibilities that they have.
STEVE LIESMAN. Has there been a directive, or, more importantly, has there been a
directive about bitcoin to the banks and their dealings with bitcoin from the Federal Reserve?
CHAIR YELLEN. I don’t believe there’s been anything specific about that, just,
generally, banks have Bank Secrecy Act anti-money-laundering responsibilities, and this applies
to bitcoin as it does in every other realm.
DONNA BORAK. Hi, Chair Yellen, Donna Borak with CNN. To return back to the
prospective tax bill questions, in your view at all, is the Republican tax bill an ill-timed fiscal
stimulus, and are you concerned at all it will wind up squandering the tools both the Congress
and the Fed have when it comes time to dealing with a recession?
CHAIR YELLEN. So, look, I will just say that it is up to the Administration and
Congress to decide on appropriate fiscal policy, and our job is to maintain our focus on
employment and inflation. We continue to think, as you can see from the projections, that a
gradual path of rate increases remains appropriate even with almost all participants now
factoring in their assessment of the impact of the tax—the tax policy.
You know, it is projected that the tax cut package will lead to additions to the national
debt and boost, by the end of the horizon, the debt-to-GDP ratio. And I will say—and this is
nothing new, this is something I’ve been saying for a long time—I am personally concerned
about the U.S. debt situation. It’s not that the debt-to-GDP ratio at the moment is extraordinarily
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or worrisomely high, but it’s also not very low. And it’s projected, as the population continues
to age and the baby boomers retire, that that ratio will continue to rise in an unsustainable
fashion. So the addition to the debt, taking what is already a significant problem and making it
worse, is—it is of concern to me, and I think it does suggest that in some future downturn,
which, well, could occur just for whatever reason, the amount of fiscal space that would exist for
fiscal policy to play an active role, it will be limited—may well be limited.
SAM FLEMING. Sam Fleming from the Financial Times. A couple of longer-term
questions. First of all, midway through the year you talked about the issue of whether inflation
targets might need to be raised. There’s obviously been a lot more debate in the Fed’s system
since then about this. It may not be an imminent issue, but do you expect it to be something the
Fed should be discussing over the coming years as some sort of change to the inflation target?
Second of all, the amount of stimulus tools that the Fed may have at its disposal when the next
downturn strikes are fairly limited. One of the incoming governors, Marvin Goodfriend, has
talked about the merits of negative interest rates. I just wondered whether you see that as a
potential—or at least in theory, for the Fed to consider should it run out of other options.
CHAIR YELLEN. So right now the FOMC is not discussing or considering its inflation
target. We do see inflation as likely moving up to target over the next couple of years, and I
would say—you said our stimulus tools are limited. I would want to emphasize that if there were
a negative shock to the economy, we do have some scope to cut the fed funds rate, and there are
other tools available, ones that we have used previously: forward guidance and asset purchases.
So I think we’re not—I wouldn’t say that we’re out of ammunition, but certainly it’s been
recognized—and I’ve emphasized myself that, in the longer run, we may be—and we’ll have to
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see how this works out, but we may be in low interest rate environments where it could prove
useful to have additional scope to conduct monetary policy. And, in that context, I think
additional research—the academic economists and others are thinking hard about what more
could be done, and I think these are matters that are certainly worthy of further study.
SAM FLEMING. So you do believe that negative interest rates, at least in theory, are
possible in the U.S. at some point if it should be necessary—at least in theory.
CHAIR YELLEN. So, I mean, on that I would say we have—that’s not something that
we have studied inside the Fed to any considerable extent and haven’t seriously thought about
using ourselves during this last downturn and recovery. We have watched what’s happened in
other countries. I think that’s worthwhile. And I would say it’s an area that academics may have
interest in in the future and is worthy of some study, but it hasn’t been part of the Fed’s agenda.
VICTORIA GUIDA. Hi, Chair Yellen. Victoria Guida with Politico. I just wanted to
ask you quickly, on the regulatory side, in your testimony to Congress recently you spoke
positively about the Senate bank regulatory reform bill, and I was wondering if there are—
beyond that bill—if there are tweaks to Dodd-Frank that you think might still be beneficial. And
then, somewhat related, Governor Powell recently said that there are currently no U.S. banks that
are too big to fail. And I was wondering, do you agree with that assessment?
CHAIR YELLEN. Well, I mean, you know, I think I’m not familiar with every detail of
the bill, but I think the bill does address a wide range of issues that, you know, we’ve highlighted
in the past as being ones where perhaps additional flexibility to tailor our supervisory
requirements would be worthwhile. So I don’t have additional things on the congressional list.
Sorry, and what—the other thing—
VICTORIA GUIDA. Too big to fail.
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CHAIR YELLEN. Oh, too big to fail.
VICTORIA GUIDA. Are there any banks that are too big to fail right now?
CHAIR YELLEN. So, you know, we continue to work seriously on resolution and the
resolution plans, the living wills, and the structure of systemic firms to ensure that it would be
possible to resolve a firm—under the bankruptcy code would be the top choice of methods, or,
alternatively, under the Orderly Liquidation Authority. And I think it’s fair to say that, over
time, we have learned more ourselves and more clearly detailed our expectations for the firms
that file living wills. And the firms themselves have made considerable progress in, you know,
changing what they do, whether it’s adopting financial contracts that would facilitate a resolution
rather than a disorderly unwinding of contracts, making sure that they’re appropriately dealing
with shared services so that key services would be able to continue, governance arrangements,
legal entity structures—the firms have all made progress in adapting to our expectations of what
would enable a successful resolution. So I think it’s an ongoing process, and I believe we have
made substantial progress.
BINYAMIN APPELBAUM. Binya Appelbaum, the New York Times. I’m struggling to
reconcile the pieces of the economic outlook that you’ve described today. You’ve said that we
are basically at full employment. You’ve said that you’re expecting a tax package to deliver a
significant stimulus, and that it will be on the demand side. You expect growth to be faster. You
expect unemployment to be lower, and yet somehow inflation is going to remain at 2 percent for
the foreseeable future. Could you describe what has changed about your economic assessment
so that everything has changed except inflation?
CHAIR YELLEN. Well, you know, the projections that we’re showing you today, many
factors went into that, fiscal policy being one of a number of different factors. And, you know,
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you’re looking at 16 participants who have made adjustments to their economic outlook for a
whole variety of reasons, including, in some cases, rethinking some of the fundamentals that
went into their original forecast. So there have been modifications in different directions by
different participants. So I would caution you about the dangers of looking at the median and
acting like that is one individual who has made a change to their forecast. That’s a leap that isn’t
quite justified.
But, look, generally, you see modestly faster growth over the next couple of years, which
is consistent and, I said, I think for most participants, reflects partly an impact from taxes
stimulating consumer and investment spending. But it’s not a gigantic increase in growth that
since—relative to September.
You do see a lower path for unemployment, but remember that inflation has also been
running low on a persistent basis, and the Committee does have a concern about inflation and
wants to see it moving up. And, on balance, you see only modest changes, slight revisions to the
path for the fed funds rate. You might think, well, shouldn’t I see more? Well, okay, growth is a
little stronger, the unemployment rate runs a little bit lower—that would perhaps push in the
direction of slightly tighter monetary policy. But, again, counterbalancing that is that inflation
has run lower than we expect, and, you know, it could take a longer period of a very strong labor
market in order to achieve the inflation objective.
JUSTINE UNDERHILL. Justine Underhill, Yahoo Finance. So William Dudley of the
New York Fed recently said that the Fed is exploring the idea of potentially having its own
cryptocurrency or digital currency. What use do you see a cryptocurrency could have for the
Fed, and do you see the potential of a cryptocurrency that might be considered legal tender?
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CHAIR YELLEN. So I want to distinguish carefully between digital currency and
cryptocurrency. This is—there is a discussion going on among central bankers about the
potential merits of adopting—a central bank itself adopting a digital currency. And there might
even be a central banker or two around the globe that might go in that direction. But I really
want to caution that this is not something the Federal Reserve is seriously considering at this
stage while we’re looking at research on this topic. There are, I think, to my mind, limited
benefits from introducing it, a limited need for it, and some substantial concerns. And so I would
really doubt that the Federal Reserve would soon go in that direction. But it is something that
central banks are looking at to see if there could be benefits from doing it.
CRAIG TORRES. Chair Yellen, before I ask this question, thanks for your stewardship
of the economy, the benefits of which I’ve seen in some of the harder-hit parts of my own
family, so—
CHAIR YELLEN. Thank you.
CRAIG TORRES. Your tenure. We’ve seen six Federal Reserve presidents appointed.
One was a woman and five are men, so I’d like to know how that comports with your
commitment to gender diversity. And, second, I wonder if you think this process of appointing
Reserve Bank presidents needs to be more transparent and accountable. Recently, the Richmond
Fed board took 11 months, and they came up with a candidate who was another Fed board
member. And so I’m wondering what you would say to critics who say that looks like cronyism,
and if you think, you know, this could be simply a more open process. These are votes on
national monetary policy, after all.
CHAIR YELLEN. So I would agree with you that these are important appointments.
Under the Federal Reserve Act, the nonbanking directors of the Reserve Banks have
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candidates. We’ve made very clear and we monitor ongoing searches very carefully to make
sure that absolutely every effort is made to create a pool that is diverse, and that there be a
national search, and that every attempt should be made to create a diverse pool. At the end of the
day, we cannot guarantee that the outcomes of these searches will result in an increase in
diversity. I mean, I’ve been very pleased to see that there’s been some success in that regard, but
we have signed off on the individuals who were appointed and have held the view that these are
individuals who were qualified to serve in these positions. So I would hope—I would hope to
see greater diversity. It has been a challenge to achieve that.
CRAIG TORRES. Should the process be more open somehow?
CHAIR YELLEN. Well, I think the process has become more open, and in a number of
the recent searches there has been outreach—public outreach, information on websites,
acceptance of potential names and nominees, and those have gotten careful consideration. There
has been—there have been meetings in some cases with community groups to try to enlarge the
pool and get suggestions, and I think that’s appropriate, and I think it has moved in the direction
you’re suggesting.
NANCY MARSHALL-GENZER. Nancy Marshall-Genzer with Marketplace. I’m
wondering if you have any advice for incoming Chair Powell?
CHAIR YELLEN. Well, my colleague—I’ve had the pleasure of working with him now
for many years, and he is somebody who understands the Federal Reserve very well and shares
its values. And as I mentioned in my opening statement, he is committed to the mission of the
Fed; to its independence; and to its acting in a nonpartisan, nonpolitical way. He is somebody
who has participated in the FOMC now for many years. To the best of my knowledge, he has
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been part of the consensus. I don’t believe he’s ever dissented. I think there is strong consensus
in the Committee for the gradual approach that we have been pursuing, and Governor Powell has
been part of that consensus, so I feel he’s very well positioned and very knowledgeable of all the
ins and outs of everything that the Fed does. In supervision, in the payment system—he’s played
an active role there—and in monetary policy, and I have confidence that he is very capable of
steering the Federal Reserve in the years ahead.
JOHN HELTMAN. Do you mean me, or—as long as everyone gets a turn. This is John
Heltman with the American Banker. Sort of a related question to what Nancy was asking—there
have been some reservations among some Democratic senators recently during Governor
Powell’s confirmation hearing and during the markup of the reg relief bill about the approach
towards regulation that the new leadership appears to be adopting. Do you have any similar
reservations about the new leadership’s ability to deregulate in an evenhanded way that keeps an
eye towards the stability of the financial system and the—sort of, the advances that have come
from post-crisis regulation?
CHAIR YELLEN. So I would say that all of my colleagues on the Board have expressed
a strong commitment to keep in place the core reforms that have produced a stronger financial
system. And I’m considering there stronger capital, particularly for the most systemic
institutions—higher-quality capital, stronger liquidity requirements, a rigorous stress-testing
program, and resolution planning that will make it more possible to resolve a firm that
encounters significant distress.
So I have heard broad-based commitment to those things, and I think they are the core of
the reforms we have put in place. I think all of us agree that it is appropriate to tailor regulatory
requirements in all of those areas and others to the systemic footprint of firms. We have done a
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lot to do that, and I think there is more that could be done, and in some areas it would require
legislation in order to do that. But I believe all of my colleagues and I are in agreement on that,
and we’re also focused on community banks and want to find ways to relieve burdens. So in
those important ways, I do think that all of my colleagues are in the same place with respect to
their priorities.
JOHN HELTMAN. Are there any important differences between your colleagues and
your vision on regulatory reform?
CHAIR YELLEN. So I have not seen anything emerge at this point that I would describe
as a significant difference.
HOWARD SCHNEIDER. Hi, Howard Schneider with Reuters. So you mentioned in
response to Steve’s question that asset valuations, you didn’t think, were on the sort of high-
priority risk list right now. So I’m wondering, what do you think is on that risk list? And, more
broadly, what have you left undone? You’ve gotten high marks for bringing the economy back
towards its goals, but are there things that are going to nag you when you walk out of here in
February and say, “Really, I wish I’d seen this to completion”? I mean, we’re not doing negative
interest rates. We’re not doing inflation framework. What’s at your top of—what’s at the top of
the to-do list that you are not getting to see to bring to ground here?
CHAIR YELLEN. So you asked about the risk list. There are always risks that affect the
outlook. We tend to focus in our own evaluation on economic risks, and we’ve characterized
them as “balanced.” And I think they are balanced. You know, I can always give you a list of,
you know, potential troubles, international developments that could result in downside economic
risk. But, look, at the moment the U.S. economy is performing well. The growth that we’re
seeing, it’s not based on, for example, an unsustainable buildup of debt as we had in the run-up
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to the financial crisis. The global economy is doing well. We’re in a synchronized expansion.
This is the first time in many years that we’ve seen this. Inflation around the world is generally
low. So I think the risks are balanced, and there’s less to lose sleep about now than has been true
for quite some time, so I feel good about the economic out—the economic outlook.
I feel, you know, good that the labor market is in a very much stronger place than it was
eight years ago. We have created 17 million jobs. We’ve got a good, strong labor market and a
very low unemployment rate, and I think that’s been tremendously important to the well-being of
American households and workers. And I feel very pleased when I hear anecdotes from firms
that tell me they’re having a hard time finding workers, and they talk about, given that they’re
taking on people with skills that don’t quite match what they want, but they’re training them,
and, you know, giving them the training that they need in order to be able to fill jobs. I think
that’s a development that is a natural one that occurs in a strong labor market that tends to build
human capital and worker skills, and that that’s a strong positive.
As I mentioned, I think the financial system is on much sounder footing, and that we have
done a great deal to put in place greater capital, liquidity, and so forth that make it less crisis
prone, and that has been an important objective.
What’s on my “undone” list, you ask? We have a 2 percent symmetric inflation
objective, and, for a number of years now, inflation has been running under 2 percent. And I
consider it an important priority to make sure that inflation doesn’t chronically undershoot our
2 percent objective, and I want to see it move up to 2 percent. So most of my colleagues and I do
believe that it’s being held down by transitory factors, but there’s work undone there, in the
sense—we need to see it move up in line with our objective.
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GREG ROBB. Thank you. Chair Yellen, what do you think will be the drivers of
inflation over the next couple of years, and how long will the Committee go with low
unemployment, low inflation before you rethink monetary policy—this gradual rate hikes?
Thank you.
CHAIR YELLEN. So, you know, I think for a number of years—so we’ve had an
undershoot of inflation for a number of years. We absolutely recognize that. I think until this
year, undershoot was understandable. First we had a good deal of slack in the labor market.
Then we had plummeting oil prices. And, beginning in mid-2014, there was a marked
depreciation in the dollar.2 And those three factors held down inflation for a number of years.
Now, in 2016, core inflation came very close to 2 percent. We seemed to be on a path of
inflation moving up, and this year, beginning in March, there seemed to be a sequence of
negative surprises. Some reflect one-time factors that were easily identifiable, like a marked
decline in quality-adjusted cell phone plans. There may be other factors that are not so easy to
name, but we would judge—you know, inflation doesn’t always follow exactly. There are errors
and many factors that affect it beyond the key influences of labor market slack: exchange rates
and import prices and oil prices. Those are three big ones. But there are other factors that affect
inflation too, and our judgment at this point is that transitory factors that are unrelated to the
broader macroeconomic outlook are holding inflation down.
But I have tried to be straightforward in saying that this could end up being something
that is more ingrained and turns out to be permanent. It’s very important to watch it and, if
necessary, rethink what’s determining inflation. A possibility is that the longer-run sustainable
2 Chair Yellen intended to say that, beginning in mid-2014, there was a marked appreciation of the dollar.
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rate of unemployment is—it’s been coming down. Estimates in the Committee have come down.
It’s conceivable that they need to come down even more.
It’s not my judgment that inflation expectations have slipped, but that also remains a
possibility that needs to be monitored. So there are—you know, there could be a rethink of
inflation. I think it’s important to watch inflation outcomes carefully and, if we don’t see
inflation moving in the manner that the Committee anticipates, to alter policy so that we do
achieve our 2 percent objective. But, at the moment, most of my colleagues and I believe we are
on track to achieve it.
JIM PUZZANGHERA. Hi, Chair Yellen. Jim Puzzanghera with the Los Angeles Times.
I’m wondering, you mentioned this is your last news conference. What are your plans when you
step down from the Fed? Are you going to remain in Washington? Will you go back to
Berkeley? And, also, I’m curious if you have any disappointment that you’re not going to be
continuing in this job as some of your predecessors have done.
CHAIR YELLEN. So, on my plans, I don’t have anything definite for you, I guess. I
have a home in Berkeley and expect to maintain it. But I would say, my spouse is on the
faculty—he’s a professor at Georgetown and would like to stay in his job, and we expect to
maintain Washington as our base. But I don’t have any definite plans.
Let’s see. And you asked me if I’m disappointed. So let me just say that I have served in
senior positions in the Federal Reserve now for quite a long time. I became president in San
Francisco in 2004, and I’ve participated in the FOMC since that time as president, as Vice Chair,
and as Chair, and it’s been an immensely rewarding experience for me. I feel very positive about
what we’ve been able to accomplish and feel tremendous, you know, loyalty to the institution.
So I did make the judgment that this is the right time for me to leave, but I feel I have served in
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senior positions at the Fed for a long time, and it’s really been an honor and a privilege for me to
have had a chance to do so.
ADAM SHAPIRO. Adam Shapiro with Fox Business. Glad to hear you’re staying on
the East Coast. I’m just curious, I wanted to follow up to the bitcoin questions, but—because
you’ve lived through what we all experienced in 2007, 2008, and—should the Fed take a more
active role in trying to identify who some of the counterparty and what the exposure is with
bitcoin as a potential threat to financial stability? Just—the best minds at the Fed can sometimes
miss these kinds of threats. Your predecessor, Mr. Bernanke, actually said in ’07 that the
contagion from subprime would not affect the housing market or the economy. So are we
underestimating the potential threat from bitcoin as it runs up in value?
CHAIR YELLEN. Well, I certainly agree that it’s important for the Fed to attempt to
understand emerging risks to financial stability and to be looking not just in the banking system
but outside it for developments that could pose financial risks, and we are doing that. And, I
would say, one of the changes during my tenure is, we devoted—decided in the aftermath of the
crisis that we needed to devote considerable resources to financial stability to monitor for
emerging threats, and now we have at the Board a full-blown division of financial stability that’s
involved in doing that.
Now, when you ask about bitcoin, I still see the financial stability risks from it as limited.
Often, risks threatening financial stability arise when there’s exposure of the banking system to
fluctuating asset valuations, and I really don’t see any significant exposure of our core financial
institutions to threats from bitcoin if its value were to fluctuate. I don’t see a threat to our core
financial institutions. So, undoubtedly, there are individuals who could lose a lot of money if
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bitcoin were to fall in price, but I really don’t see that as creating a full-blown financial
stability risk.
MICHAEL MCKEE. Michael McKee from Bloomberg Television and Radio. I suppose
I should be asking you a valedictory question since it’s the last question, but I don’t think you
can top what you’ve already said, so let me just do a couple of cleanup questions here. President
Trump, while you were speaking, just said that he thinks his tax plan will produce 4 percent
growth. Do you think that is possible? Second, do you think that there is any Fed blame or
complicity in the flattening of the yield curve, and are you worried that there might be some sort
of policy mistake built into that that could slow the economy? And the last question, which is a
bit of a valedictory, is one that everybody on Wall Street has wanted to ask you for four years.
Since this is your last press conference, can you tell us which dot is yours? [Laughter]
CHAIR YELLEN. Well, I can answer the last question first. The answer is “no.” I’ve
never been willing to reveal which dot is mine, and I’m not going to change that now.
So, you know, my assessment, and I think most participants’ assessments, as I said, of the
impact of the tax policy on growth has been informed by work by the Joint Committee on
Taxation and other analysts. And everyone recognizes that there’s uncertainty about what the
economic effects would be, and I wouldn’t want to rule anything out. It is challenging, however,
to achieve growth of the levels that you mentioned. Look, if the package were to stimulate
growth of that magnitude, let me just say again, the Federal Reserve would welcome that. If it’s
a supply-side—favorable supply-side developments that would be compatible with the
attainment of our employment and inflation objectives, that’s something that would be very, very
welcome. But it would be challenging to achieve numbers like that.
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Let’s see, I think you also then asked me about the yield curve, and—I mean, there is
much discussion about yield curve inversions and whether or not a flattening yield curve could
signal a recession. Is that the brunt of your question?
MICHAEL MCKEE. And whether the Fed has made—if there’s a policy mistake
embedded in that.
CHAIR YELLEN. So this is something that we discussed and have looked at. The yield
curve has flattened some as we have raised short rates. It mainly—the flattening yield curve
mainly reflects higher short-term rates. The yield curve is not currently inverted, and I would
say that the current slope is well within its historical range.
Now, there is a strong correlation historically between yield curve inversions and
recessions, but let me emphasize that correlation is not causation, and I think that there are good
reasons to think that the relationship between the slope of the yield curve and the business cycle
may have changed. And one reason for that is that long-term interest rates generally embody
two factors. One is the expected average value of short rates over, say, 10 years, and the second
piece of it is a so-called term premium that often reflects things like inflation—inflation risk.
Typically, the term premium historically has been positive. So when the yield curve has
inverted historically, it meant that short-term rates were well above average expected short rates
over the longer run. So with the positive term premium, that’s what it means. And typically that
means that monetary policy is restrictive, sometimes quite restrictive, and some of those
recessions were situations in which the Fed was consciously tightening monetary policy because
inflation was high and trying to slow the economy.
Well, right now the term premium is estimated to be quite low, close to zero, and that
means that, structurally—and this can be true going forward—that the yield curve is likely to be
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flatter than it’s been in the past. And so it could more easily invert. If the Fed were to even
move to a slightly restrictive policy stance, you could see an inversion with a zero term premium.
So I think the fact the term premium is so low and the yield curve is generally flatter is an
important factor to consider. Now, I think it’s also important to realize that market participants
are not expressing heightened concern about the decline of the term premium, and, when asked
directly about the odds of recession, they see it as low, and I would concur with that judgment.
Thanks very much.