FOMC Press Conference - 2013-09-18
Central bank: fed | Type: press_conference | Date: 2013-09-18

September 18, 2013 Chairman Bernanke’s Press Conference FINAL
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Transcript of Chairman Bernanke’s Press Conference
September 18, 2013
CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. Good afternoon. The Federal Open Market Committee
(FOMC) concluded a two-day meeting earlier today. As you already know from our statement,
the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to ¼ percent
and to make no change in either its asset purchase program or its forward guidance regarding the
federal funds rate target. I will discuss the rationales for our decision in a moment.
Economic growth has generally been proceeding at a moderate pace, with continued—
albeit somewhat uneven—improvement in labor market conditions. Of course, to say that the
job market has improved does not imply that current conditions are satisfactory. Notably, at
7.3 percent, the unemployment rate remains well above acceptable levels. Long-term
unemployment and underemployment remain high. And we have seen ongoing declines in labor
force participation, which likely reflects discouragement on the part of many potential workers as
well as longer-term influences, such as the aging of the population.
In the Committee’s assessment, the downside risks to growth have diminished, on net,
over the past year, reflecting, among other factors, somewhat better economic and financial
conditions in Europe and increased confidence on the part of households and firms in the staying
power of the U.S. recovery. However, the tightening of financial conditions observed in recent
months, if sustained, could slow the pace of improvement in the economy and the labor market.
In addition, federal fiscal policy continues to be an important restraint on growth and a source of
downside risk.
Apart from some fluctuations due primarily to changes in oil prices, inflation has
continued to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-term objective. The Committee
recognizes that inflation persistently below its objective could pose risks to economic
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performance, and we will continue to monitor inflation developments closely. However, the
unwinding of some transitory factors has led to moderately higher inflation recently, as expected.
And, with longer-term inflation expectations well anchored, the Committee anticipates that
inflation will gradually move back toward 2 percent.
In conjunction with this meeting, the 17 participants in our policy discussions—5 Board
members and 12 Reserve Bank presidents—submitted individual economic projections. As
always, each participant’s projections are conditioned on his or her own view of appropriate
monetary policy. Also, at this meeting, we extended the horizon of our projections through
Generally, the projections of individual participants show that they continue to expect
moderate economic growth, picking up over time, as well as gradual progress towards levels of
unemployment and inflation, consistent with the Federal Reserve’s statutory mandate to foster
maximum employment and price stability. More specifically, participants’ projections for
economic growth have a central tendency of 2.0 to 2.3 percent for 2013, rising to 2.9 to
3.1 percent in 2014 and 2.5 to 3.3 percent in 2016. For the unemployment rate, the central
tendency of projections for the fourth quarter of each year is 7.1 to 7.3 percent for 2013,
declining to 6.4 to 6.8 percent in 2014 and, by 2016, to 5.4 to 5.9 percent— about the longer-run
normal level for the unemployment rate. Most participants see inflation gradually increasing
from its current low level toward the Committee’s longer-run objective of 2 percent. The central
tendency of their projections for inflation is 1.1 to 1.2 percent for this year, 1.3 to 1.8 percent for
2014, and 1.7 to 2.0 percent in 2016.
With unemployment still elevated and inflation projected to run below the Committee’s
longer-run objective, the Committee is continuing its highly accommodative policies. As you
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know, in normal times, the Committee eases monetary policy by lowering its target for the short-
term policy interest rate, the federal funds rate. However, the target range for the federal funds
rate, currently at 0 to ¼ percent, cannot be lowered meaningfully further. Accordingly, the
Committee has been providing policy support to the economy through two complementary
methods: by purchasing and holding Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities
and by communicating the Committee’s plans for setting the federal funds rate target over the
medium term. I’ll discuss these tools in turn, beginning with our program of asset purchases.
In September 2012, the FOMC initiated a program of purchasing $40 billion per month in
agency mortgage-backed securities, in addition to the $45 billion per month in longer-term
Treasury securities that we were already acquiring as part of our maturity extension program.
We stated that, subject to our ongoing assessment of the efficacy and costs of the program,
purchases would continue until we saw a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor
market in a context of price stability. In December 2012, we announced that we would continue
to purchase $45 billion per month in longer-term Treasuries after the maturity extension program
ended later that month. Thus, our total purchases of longer-term securities were maintained at
$85 billion per month, in addition to the reinvestment or rolling over of maturing securities on
our balance sheet. The Committee agreed today to continue asset purchases at that rate, subject
to the same conditions that we laid out a year ago.
Because the Committee tied its asset purchases to the outlook for the labor market, it’s
important to assess how that outlook has evolved. As I noted earlier, conditions in the job
market today are still far from what all of us would like to see. Nevertheless, meaningful
progress has been made in the year since we announced the asset purchase program. For
example, the unemployment rate has fallen from 8.1 percent at the time of our announcement to
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7.3 percent today, and about 2.3 million private-sector jobs have been created over the same
period. Over the past 12 months, aggregate hours of work are up by about 2.4 percent, weekly
new claims for unemployment insurance have fallen by about 50,000, and surveys suggest that
households perceive jobs as more readily available. Importantly, these gains were achieved
despite substantial fiscal headwinds, which are likely slowing economic growth this year by a
percentage point, or more, and reducing employment by hundreds of thousands of jobs. Not all
labor market developments over the past year were positive, however; notably, the labor force
participation rate fell by about 0.3 percentage points and real wages remained about flat.
In light of this cumulative progress, the FOMC concluded at our June meeting that the
criterion of substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market might well be met over
the subsequent year or so. Accordingly, the Committee sought to provide more guidance on how
the pace of purchases might be adjusted over time. The Committee anticipated in June that,
subject to certain conditions, it might be appropriate to begin to moderate the pace of purchases
later this year, continuing to reduce the pace of purchases in measured steps through the first half
of next year, and ending purchases around midyear 2014. However, we also made clear at that
time that adjustments to the pace of purchases would depend importantly on the evolution of the
economic outlook—in particular, on the receipt of evidence supporting the Committee’s
expectation that gains in the labor market will be sustained and that inflation is moving back
towards its 2 percent objective over time.
At the meeting concluded earlier today, the sense of the Committee was that the broad
contours of the medium-term economic outlook— including economic growth sufficient to
support ongoing gains in the labor market, and inflation moving towards its objective—were
close to the views it held in June. But in evaluating whether a modest reduction in the pace of
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asset purchases would be appropriate at this meeting, however, the Committee concluded that the
economic data do not yet provide sufficient confirmation of its baseline outlook to warrant such
a reduction. Moreover, the Committee has some concern that the rapid tightening of financial
conditions in recent months could have the effect of slowing growth, as I noted earlier, a concern
that would be exacerbated if conditions tightened further. Finally, the extent of the effects of
restrictive fiscal policies remain unclear, and upcoming fiscal debates may involve additional
risks to financial markets and to the broader economy. In light of these uncertainties, the
Committee decided to await more evidence that the recovery’s progress will be sustained before
adjusting the pace of asset purchases.
The Committee will, of course, continue to monitor economic and financial
developments closely. As noted in today’s statement, in judging when to moderate the pace of
asset purchases, the Committee will, at its coming meetings, assess whether incoming
information continues to support the Committee’s expectation of ongoing improvement in labor
market conditions and inflation moving back towards its longer-run objective. However, as we
have said, and as today’s decision underscores, asset purchases are not on a preset course. The
Committee’s decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the economic outlook and on
the Committee’s ongoing assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of the program.
Let me turn now to the FOMC’s forward guidance regarding the federal funds rate. The
Committee again reaffirmed its expectation that the current exceptionally low range for the funds
rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6½ percent, so
long as inflation and inflation expectations remain well behaved as described in our statement.
As I have noted frequently, the economic conditions we have set out as preceding any future rate
increase are thresholds, not triggers. For example, a decline in the unemployment rate to
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6½ percent would not lead automatically to an increase in the federal funds rate target, but
would, instead, indicate only that it had become appropriate for the Committee to consider
whether the broader economic outlook justified such an increase. The Committee would be
unlikely to increase rates if inflation were projected to remain below our 2 percent objective for
some time, for example; and, in making its assessment, the Committee would also take into
account additional measures of labor market conditions, such as job gains. Thus, the first
increases in short-term rates might not occur until the unemployment rate is considerably below
6½ percent.
The projections of the path of the federal funds rate by individual Committee participants
are generally consistent with this guidance. Although the central tendency of the projected
unemployment rate for the fourth quarter of next year encompasses 6½ percent, 12 of the
17 participants expect the first rate increase to take place in 2015 and two expect it to occur in
Most participants also see the funds rate target rising only very slowly after the process of
removing policy accommodation begins. The median projected funds rate for the end of 2015 is
1 percent. And notably, although the central tendencies of the projections for both inflation and
the unemployment rate in 2016 are close to the longer-run normal values for those variables, the
median projection for the federal funds rate at the end of 2016 is 2 percent, well below the
longer-run normal value for the federal funds rate of 4 percent or so projected by most
participants. Committee participants generally believe that, because the headwinds to recovery
will abate only gradually, achieving and maintaining maximum employment and price stability
will require a patient policy approach that involves keeping the target for the federal funds rate
below its longer-run normal value for some time.
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Let me close by noting that although the FOMC is employing two instruments of
policy—asset purchases and forward guidance about s hort-term interest rates—the overall stance
of monetary policy is what matters for growth, jobs, and inflation. Our program of asset
purchases was set up a year ago to help achieve a substantial improvement in the outlook for the
labor market in the context of price stability, relative to conditions when the program was
initiated, and we have made progress toward meeting that criterion. However, even after asset
purchases are wound down—which we will do in a manner that is both deliberate and dependent
on the incoming economic data—the Federal Reserve’s rates guidance and its ongoing holdings
of securities will ensure that monetary policy remains highly accommodative, consistent with an
aggressive pursuit of our mandated objectives of maximum employment and price stability.
Thank you, and I’d be glad to take your questions.
PEDRO DA COSTA. Thanks, Mr. Chairman. Pedro da Costa from Reuters. You cite
meaningful progress on the labor market both on the unemployment front and in terms of payroll
growth. But much of the decline in the unemployment rate has been due, as you know, to the
decline in participation. So my question to you is—and also on the payroll front, some people
would argue that, while there has been growth, it hasn’t been strong enough to keep up with
population growth and make up the gap that we have from the recession. So, how high do you
think the jobless rate would be if it were not for the decline in participation? I’ve heard estimates
as high as 10 to 11 percent. And could you put the labor market in that context?
CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. Certainly. So, I think there is a cyclical component to
participation, and, in that respect, the unemployment rate understates the amount of sort of true
unemployment, if you will, in the economy. But on the other hand, there is also a downward
trend in participation in our economy, which is arising from factors that have been going on for
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some time, including an aging population, lower participation by prime-age males, fewer women
in the labor force—other factors which aren ’t really related to this recession.
Over the last year, the unemployment rate has dropped by eight-tenths of a percentage
point. The participation rate has dropped by three-tenths of a percentage point, which is pretty
close to the trend. So, in other words, I think it would be fair to say that most of the
improvement in the unemployment rate—not all, but most of it in the last year —is due to job
creation rather than lower participation. I would also note that if you look at the broader
measures of unemployment that the BLS publishes, including part-time work, including
discouraged workers and so on, you’ll see that those rates have fallen about the same amount as
the overall standard civilian unemployment rate. So I think that there has been progress, and it’s
obscured to some extent by the downward trend in participation. But I also would agree with
you that the unemployment rate, while perhaps the best single indicator of the state of labor
market, is not by itself a fully representative indicator.
BINYAMIN APPELBAUM. Binya Appelbaum, the New York Times. To what extent do
you regard yourself as responsible for the tightening in financial conditions that you noted? Was
it a mistake to talk about tapering in the way that you did in June and do you stand by your
guidance that it will be appropriate? Do you still expect that it will be appropriate to dial down
asset purchases by the end of this year?
CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. So to answer the first part of your question, I think there’s
no alternative in making monetary policy but to communicate as clearly as possible, and that’s
what we tried to do. As of June, we had made meaningful progress in labor market conditions,
and the Committee thought that was the time to begin talking about how the eventual wind-down
of the program would take place and how it would be tied to the evolution of economic variables.
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And, in particular, I talked about a proposed strategy that would take about a year for the total
wind-down to take place and which, in turn, was also fully contingent on the ratification—so to
speak—of our outlook, which included continued improvements in the labor market . So all of
that was very consistent with what we said when we began the program, that our goal was to
achieve a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market, and we needed to
communicate how that was going to be put into practice. Failing to communicate that
information would have risked creating a large divergence between market expectations, public
expectations, and what the Committee intentions were, and that could have led to much more
serious problems down the road. So I think the communication was very important.
The general framework—to answer the other part of your question, the general
framework in which we’re operating is still the same. We have a three-part baseline projection,
which involves increasing growth that’s picking up over time as fiscal drag is reduced,
continuing gains in the labor market, and inflation moving back towards objective. We are
looking to see—in the coming meetings, we ’ll be looking to see if the data confirm that basic
outlook. If it does, we’ll take a first step at some point—possibly later this year —and then
continue so long as the data are consistent with that continued progress. And so that basic
structure is still in place.
But what I want to emphasize is really two things. First, as I’ve said, asset purchases are
not on a preset course, they are conditional on the data. They’ve always been conditional on the
data. And, secondly, that even as we move from asset purchases to rate policy as the principal
tool of monetary policy, it’s our intent to maintain a highly accommodative policy and to provide
the support necessary for our economy to recover and to provide jobs for our citizens.
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JON HILSENRATH. Jon Hilsenrath from the Wall Street Journal. Just to follow up on
Binya’s question, Mr. Chairman, you said that you could pull back the purchases possibly later
this year. You sound a little bit less certain that it’s going to happen later this year. So I’d like
you—to ask you to talk a little bit more about your conviction about whether these are like —the
pullback is likely to start this year, where do you stand on that? And I also don’t think I heard
you mentioned that 7 percent unemployment number that you’ve talked— you talked about back
in June. That was the rate that was—the unemployment rate that was supposed to prevail when
the Fed was done doing this. Is that no longer operative?
CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. So there is no fixed calendar—schedule, I really have to
emphasize that. If the data confirm our basic outlook, if we gain more confidence in that outlook
and we believe that the three-part test that I mentioned is indeed coming to pass, then we could
move later this year, we could begin later this year. But even if we do that, the subsequent steps
will be dependent on continued progress in the economy. So we are tied to the data—we don ’t
have a fixed calendar schedule—but we do have the same basic framework that I described in
The criterion for ending the asset purchases program is a substantial improvement in the
outlook for the labor market. Last time, I gave 7 percent as an indicative number to give you
some sense of, you know, where that might be. But, as my first answer suggested, the
unemployment rate is not necessarily a great measure, in all circumstances, of the state of the
labor market overall. For example, just last month, the decline in the unemployment rate came
about more than entirely because of declining participation, not because of increased jobs. So
what we will be looking at is the overall labor market situation, including the unemployment
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rate, but including other factors as well. But, in particular, there is not any magic number that we
are shooting for. We’re looking for overall improvement in the labor market.
STEVE LIESMAN. Steve Liesman, with CNBC. Mr. Chairman, one question—just
three parts, if you don’t mind. Have you indicated to President Obama you did not want to serve
a third term? If so, when? Or did President Obama indicate to you he did not want you to serve
a third term? And those two parts notwithstanding, would you serve a third term if asked, either
wholly or in part? Thank you.
CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. Well, it’s convenient because I have the same answer to all
three parts of your question. If you will indulge me just a little longer, I prefer not to talk about
my plans at this point. I hope to have more information for you at some reasonably soon date,
but today I want to focus on monetary policy. I’d prefer not to talk about my own plans.
YLAN MUI. Ylan Mui, Washington Post. You mentioned that tighter fiscal conditions
are a concern for the Committee as you guys think about whether or not it’s appropriate to
reduce asset purchases. What do you all expect to be able to do in the future, when you actually
do begin to pull back in your asset purchases, to manage expectations and manage the market
reactions such that we don’t see another increase in rates?
CHAIRMAN BERNAKE. What’s the relationship between the pullback and fiscal
YLAN MUI. Oh, I’m sorry. I meant financial conditions, tighter financial conditions.
CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. Oh, tighter financial conditions, sure. Well, I think part of
the reaction we’ve seen—and it comes from a number of sources —part of it comes from
improved economic news and that’s part of the reason why rates have gone up in other countries
as well as in the United States. And that—to the extent that tighter financial conditions reflect a
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better outlook, that’s a good thing, and that’s not a problem at all. Part of it reflects views about
monetary policy, and that we want to make sure we get straight. And that’s why—to answer the
earlier question, again, it’s why communication is so important. We need to explain, as best we
can, how we’re going to move and on what basis we’re going to move. It’s much more difficult
today than it was 20 years ago because the tools are more complex so they’re less familiar, but
that’s still very important.
I think the other factor which was at play was an unwinding of excessively risky and
levered positions in the markets, and insufficiencies of liquidity in some cases meant that those
unwindings led to larger reactions in prices and rates than might otherwise have occurred. Now,
the tightening associated with that is, to some extent, unwelcome, but, on the other hand, to the
extent that some of the riskier, more levered positions have been eliminated, I think that makes
the situation more sustainable and reduces, at least, the risk that there will be an over-strong
reaction to further announcements.
So we will do our best to communicate clearly. That is our goal and our objective. The
more clearly we communicate, the better the chance that markets will understand our intentions
and that we can avoid any sharp movements. But, again, we’re dealing with tools that are less
familiar, harder to quantify, and harder to communicate about than the traditional funds rate.
ROBIN HARDING. Robin Harding, from the Financial Times. Mr. Chairman, the
median Committee member expects a 2 percent interest rate at the end of 2016, and, in the long
run, they expect interest rates to return to 4 percent. Can you give us any sense of when you and
when the Committee expect interest rates to get back to that 4 percent figure?
CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. Let me first restate the— I think the key point here, which is
that the large majority of the participants of the FOMC, including voting and nonvoting members
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who are asked to describe their own assessment of optimal policy—the large majority of them
estimate that the appropriate target for the federal funds rate at the end of 2016 will be around
2 percent, even though at that time the economy should be close to full employment, according
to our best projections. The reason for that—there may be possibly several reasons, but we did
discuss this in the Committee today—t he primary reason for that low value is that we expect that
a number of factors—including the slow recovery of the housing sector , continued fiscal drag,
perhaps continued effects from the financial crisis—may still prove to be headwinds to the
recovery. And even though we can achieve full employment, doing so will be done by using
rates lower than, sort of, the long-run normal. So, in other words, in economics terms, the
equilibrium rate, the rate that achieves full employment, looks like it will be lower for a time
because of these headwinds that will be slowing aggregate demand growth.
So that’s why we expect to see growth that— I mean, rates at an unusually low level. I
imagine it would take a few more years after that to get to the 4 percent level. I couldn’t be
much more precise than that— I mean, we’re already obviously stretching the bounds of
credibility to talk about specific projections to 2016. But I think you would expect to see that
rates would gradually rise for the two or three years after 2016 and ultimately get to 4 percent.
JOSH ZUMBRUN. Mr. Chairman, Josh Zumbrun from Bloomberg News. You
indicated that you can see the Fed lowering the pace of purchases once the economy starts to
grow faster, in line with what the Fed’s projected. For about the past four years, the Fed has
been projecting that growth would quicken to about 3 percent, and it never has. So, at what point
are you decide— going to decide that other costs and benefits are the reason that you’re making
the decision? Are we getting close to that having to be a deciding factor even if you don’t get the
growth forecast, the way you haven’t the past four years? And does the complication of this—
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this is kind of a second question, but I’m going to do it anyway—does the complication of this
mean that you need a press conference to make a tapering decision?
CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. Well, you’re certainly right that we have been over-
optimistic about out-year growth. There are a number of reasons for that. One reason for it,
though, is that it appears—and I talked about this in a speech last year—it appears that , as part of
the aftermath of the financial crisis, that, at least temporarily, the potential growth rate of the
economy has been slowed, perhaps because new businesses are not being formed at the same
rate, innovation may not be translated into new technologies at the same rate, investment is
slower, et cetera. So it appears, again, that the potential rate of growth of the economy has been
slowed somewhat, at least temporarily, by the recession and the financial crisis, and you can see
that in the slower productivity figures.
Now, we have— you know, we haven’t anticipated that slowdown in productivity, and
that’s one of the main reasons why we haven’t anticipated the relatively slow growth. Now, it’s
important to recognize though that what monetary policy affects is not the potential rate of
growth, long-run rate of growth, but rather the cyclical part, the deviation of output and
employment from its normal level. And in predicting the amount of slack in the economy, so to
speak, we’ve done a little better. Our predictions of unemployment, for example, have been
better than our predictions of growth. And, in particular, one thing that’s been quite striking is
that unemployment—we were too p essimistic on unemployment for this year. Unemployment
has fallen faster than we anticipated. So, in that respect, we were too pessimistic rather than too
optimistic. So, we’ll continue to do the best we can. We’re looking, again, to see confirmation
of our broader scenario, which basically is that we’ll continue to see progress in the labor market,
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that growth will be sufficient to support that progress, and that inflation will be moving back
towards target, and that’s what will determine our policy decisions.
In terms of press conferences, I think it’s important to say that there’s an understanding in
the Committee that we’ve had for a while, that there are eight “real” meetings every year—that
every meeting is a meeting in which any policy decision can be taken. And, should anything
occur at a meeting without a scheduled press conference that requires additional explanation, we
certainly could arrange a public, on-the-record conference call or some other way of answering
the media’s questions.
GREG IP. Greg Ip of the Economist. You said that you—the C ommittee would be
unlikely to raise the federal funds rate if inflation remains below target, but your own projections
have inflation—that ’s the midpoint of your inflation projections—below your 2 pe rcent target
through 2016. So is that inconsistent with the liftoff in the federal funds rate in that period?
And, related, is there a case to be made that your thresholds should be supplemented with a
lower bound for the inflation rate—i.e. , you won’t tighten if inflation is at or below some lower
CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. So on the latter part, you know, of course, you’re seeing
interest rate projections and inflation projections separately. You’re not seeing them combined
by individuals. Each individual is making their own projection. I think you’re right, I mean, that
we should be very reluctant to raise rates if inflation remains persistently below target, and that’s
one of the reasons that I think we can be very patient in raising the federal funds rate since we
have not seen any inflation pressure.
On having an inflation floor, that would be in addition to the guidance. We are
discussing how we might clarify the guidance on the federal funds rate. That is certainly one
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possibility. I guess an interesting question there is whether we need additional guidance on that,
given that we do have a target. And, of course, implicit in our policy strategy is trying to reach
that target for inflation, but that—an inflation floor is certainly something that, you know, could
be a sensible modification or addition to the guidance.
VICTORIA McGRANE. Victoria McGrane, Dow Jones Newswires. Many investors
were expecting the Fed to move at least a little bit in pulling back the bond-buying program
today. Given that you all decided not to do that, are—do you have any concerns that, once again,
the Fed is confusing investors and sending mixed signals?
CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. Well, I don’t recall stating that we would do any particular
thing in this meeting. What we are going to do is the right thing for the economy. And our
assessment of the data since June is that, taken collectively, that it didn’t quite meet the standard
of satisfying our—or of ratifying or confirming our basic outlook for , again, increasing growth,
improving labor markets, and inflation moving back towards target. We try our best to
communicate to markets—we ’ll continue to do that—but we can ’t let market expectations dictate
our policy actions. Our policy actions have to be determined by our best assessment of what’s
needed for the economy.
PETER BARNES. Peter Barnes, Fox Business, sir. You mentioned fiscal issues in the
statement today. Are you concerned about a government shutdown? We’re hearing more about
that possibility. Did that come up in your discussions at this meeting? What do you think would
be the impact of a government shutdown on the economy, and what could the Fed’s—or , would
the Fed be prepared to respond to that and help the economy with additional accommodation, for
example, additional asset purchases? Thank you.
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CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. Well, a factor that did concern us in our discussion was
some upcoming fiscal policy decisions. I would include both the possibility of a government
shutdown, but also the debt limit issue. These are obviously, you know, part of a very
complicated set of legislative decisions, strategies, battles, et cetera, which I won’t get into. But
it is the case, I think, that a government shutdown—and perhaps , even more so, a failure to raise
the debt limit—could have very serious consequences for the financial markets and for the
economy, and the Federal Reserve’s policy is to do whatever we can to keep the economy on
course. And so, if these actions led the economy to slow, then we would have to take that into
account, surely. So this is one of the risks that we are looking at as we think about policy. That
being said, you know, again, our ability to offset these shocks is very limited, particularly a debt
limit shock. And I think it’s extraordinarily important that Congress and the Administration
work together to find a way to make sure that the government is funded, public services are
provided, that the government pays its bills, and that we avoid any kind of event like 2011,
which had, at least for a time, a noticeable adverse effect on confidence and on the economy.
ANNALYN KURTZ. Annalyn Kurtz, with CNNMoney. This week marks five years
since the financial crisis began, and Hank Paulson, who you’ve worked very closely with, has
said his biggest regret was that he wasn’t able to convince the American people that what was
done— the bank bailouts —weren ’t for Wall Street, they were for Main Street. What is your
biggest regret as you reflect on the five-year anniversary? And do you believe that the Fed,
Congress, and the President have put the necessary measures in place to prevent another deep
financial crisis?
CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. Well, on regrets, as Frank Sinatra says, I have many. I
think my— you know, reasonably, the biggest regret I have is that we didn’t forestall the crisis. I
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think once the crisis got going, it was extremely hard to prevent. You know, I think we did what
we could, given the powers that we had, and I would agree with Hank that we were motivated
entirely by the interest of the broader public, that our goal was to stabilize the financial system so
that it would not bring the economy down, so that it would not create massive unemployment
and economic hardship that was even more—that would have been even more severe by many
times than what we actually saw. So I agree with him on that. And I guess, since you gave me
the opportunity, I would mention that, of course, all the money that was used in those operations
has been paid back with interest. And so, it hasn’t been costly, even from a fiscal point of view.
Now, in terms of progress, that’s a good question. I think we’ve made a lot of progress.
We had, of course, the Dodd–Frank law passed in 2010, and then we recently, you know, have
come to agreement internationally on a number of measures, including Basel III and other
agreements relating to the shadow banking system and other aspects of the financial system. I
think that our—today, our large financial firms, for example, are better capitalized by far than
they were certainly during the crisis and even before the crisis. Supervision is tougher. We do
stress testing to make sure that firms can withstand not only normal shocks, but very, very large
shocks, similar to those they experienced in 2008. And, very importantly, of course, we now
have a tool that we didn’t have in 2008—which would have made , I think, a significant
difference if we had had it—which is the orderly l iquidation authority that the Dodd–Frank bill
gave to the FDIC in collaboration with the Fed. Under the orderly liquidation authority, the
FDIC, with other agencies, has the ability to wind down a failing financial firm in a way that
minimizes the direct impact on the financial markets and on the economy.
Now, I should say, I don’t want to overstate the case— I think there’s a lot more work to
be done. In the case of resolution regimes, for example, the United States has set the course
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internationally. Other countries and international bodies like the FSB are setting up standards for
resolution regimes, which are very similar to those of the United States, which is going to make
for better cooperation across borders. But we’re still some distance from being fully geared up
to work with foreign counterparts to successfully wind down an international—multinational
financial firm. And that’s—we ’ve made progress in that direction, but we need to do more, I
think. So, I think there’s more to be done. There’s more to be done on derivatives, although a
lot has been done to make them more transparent and to make the trading of derivatives safer.
But it’s going to be probably some time before, you know, all of this stuff that has been
undertaken, all of these measures are fully implemented. And we can assess, you know, the
ultimate impact on the financial system.
STEVE BECKNER. Steve Beckner of MNI, Mr. Chairman. A number of economists,
and, indeed, some of your Fed colleagues, have argued that the effectiveness of quantitative
easing has greatly diminished, if not disappeared, and they point to the recent performance of the
economy as proof of that. And there have been a number of people who have argued that there
are regulatory and other impediments to growth beyond the reach of monetary policy. To what
extent are these valid arguments? And if the economy does not speed up, if it does not reach
your objectives, how will you ever get out of quantitative easing?
CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. Well, on the effectiveness of our asset purchases, it’s
difficult to get a precise measure. There’s a large academic literature on this subject, and they
have a range of results, some suggesting that this is a quite powerful tool, some that it’s less
powerful. My own assessment is that it has been effective. If you look at the recovery, you see
that some of the strongest sectors, the leading sectors like housing and autos, have been interest-
sensitive sectors. And that these policies have been successful in strengthening financial
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conditions, lowering interest rates, and thereby promoting recovery. So I do think that they have
been effective. You mentioned that there hasn’t been any progress. There has been a lot of
progress. As I said at the beginning, labor market indicators, while still not where we’d like
them to be, are much better today than they were when we began this latest program a year ago.
And, importantly—as actually is referenced in our FOMC statement —that happened
notwithstanding a set of fiscal policies which the CBO said would cost between 1 and
1½ percentage points of real growth and hundreds of thousands of jobs. So the fact that we have
maintained improvements in the labor market that are as good or better than the previous year,
notwithstanding this fiscal drag, is some indication that there is at least a partial offset from
monetary policy.
Now, just as you say, there are a lot of things in the economy that monetary policy can’t
address. They include the effectiveness of regulation, they include fiscal policy, they include
developments in the private sector. We do what we can do and what—if we can get help, we ’re
delighted to have help from other policymakers and from the private sector and we hope that that
will happen. The criterion for ending asset purchases is not, you know, some very high rate of
growth. What it is is the criterion—l et me just remind you, the criterion is a substantial
improvement in the outlook for the labor market, and we have made significant improvement.
Ultimately, we will reach that level of substantial improvement, and at that point, we will be able
to wind down the asset purchases. Again, you know, and I think people don’t fully appreciate
that we have two tools: We have asset purchases, and we have rate policy and guidance about
rates. It’s our view that the latter, the rate policy, is actually the stronger, more reliable tool.
And when we get to the point where we can, you know, where we are close enough to full
employment that rate policy will be sufficient, I think that we will still be able to provide—even
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if asset purchases are reduced—we will still be able to provide a highly accommodative
monetary background that will allow the economy to continue to grow and move towards full
employment.
DONNA BORAK. Chairman, Donna Borak, with American Banker. The Financial
Stability Oversight Council has already designated two nonbank firms as SIFIs, as you know,
and potentially a third very soon, and presumably others to follow. However, little has been said
in terms of how specifically these firms will be regulated by the Fed, which has been a chief
criticism of the entire process. Given that, can you provide us any guidance at this point in terms
of how far along the Fed is in terms of letting the banks know how they will be regulated
besides, you know, tailoring the plans?
CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. Well, the two firms that have been designated, AIG and GE
Capital, actually are—ha ve been regulated by the Fed, because both of them are savings and
loan, thrift holding companies. So we have a lot of already experience with those firms and a lot
of contact with those firms. We will—I want to use the word “ tailored” because we want to
design a regime that is appropriate for the business model of the particular firm. But our other
objective, and what makes designation by the FSOC particularly noteworthy, is that the primary
goal of the consolidated supervision by the Fed is to make sure that the firms—the firm doesn’ t
in any way endanger the stability of the broad financial system. So we’ll be looking at not just
the usual safety and soundness type matters or supervision, which both can be, again, tailored to
the types of assets and liabilities that the firm has, but also we’re going to want to focus on things
like resolution authority, practices relating to derivatives and other exposures,
interconnectedness, et cetera, to make sure that the firm in its structure and in its operations
doesn’t pose a threat to the wider system. And that’s what is going to be distinctive about our
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oversight, not only of these designated firms, but also of the large bank holding companies that
we already oversee and which we are already subjecting to tougher supervision, higher capital,
stress tests, and all the rest.
PETER COOK. Peter Cook of Bloomberg Television, Mr. Chairman. One of my
colleagues was remarking as we came in here, we don’t often get surprises from the Federal
Reserve. This was a surprise, you talked about— you hadn’t telegraphed anything specifically,
but you’ve seen the market reaction, I’m sure. My question for you is, were you intending a
surprise today, and did you get the intended result, judging from the market reaction? And
related to that, by taking this action today—continuing the bond purchases going forward— at
what point do you believe you’re starting to complicate the exit strategy? Simply by continuing
to keep the Fed’s foot on the gas pedal, do you make life more complicated for the Federal
Reserve down the road?
CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. Well, it’s our intention to try to set policy as appropriate for
the economy, as I said earlier. We are somewhat concerned. I won’t overstate it, but we do want
to see the effects of higher interest rates on the economy, particularly in mortgage rates, on
housing. So to the extent that our policy makes conditions—our policy de cision today makes
conditions just a little bit easier, that’s desirable. We want to make sure that the economy has
adequate support and, in particular, it’s less surprising the market or easing policy as it is
avoiding a tightening until we can be comfortable that the economy is in fact growing, you
know, the way we want it to be growing. So this was a step—it was a step , a precautionary step
if you will. It was a—t he intention is to wait a bit longer and to try to get confirming evidence
whether to the—to whether or not the economy is , in fact, conforming to this general outlook
that we have. I don’t think that we are complicating anything for future FOMCs. It’s true that
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the assets that we’ve been buying add to the size of our balance sheet. But we have developed a
variety of tools, and we think we have numerous tools that we—can be used to both manage
interest rates and to ultimately unwind the balance sheet when the time comes. So I, you know,
I’m— I feel quite comfortable that we can—in particular, that we can raise interest rates at the
appropriate time, even if the balance sheet remains large for an extended period. And that will
be true, of course, for, you know, future FOMCs as well.
KATE DAVIDSON. Mr. Chairman, Kate Davidson from Politico. Do you think that all
of the recent attention being paid to who will be your replacement has had any immediate effect
on the Fed, and could it have any lingering effect on your successor? And also, do you think the
process has just become too politicized, or is this part of a healthy debate?
CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. I think the Federal Reserve has strong institutional
credibility. And it is a strong institution, a highly competent institution, and it’s independent, it’s
nonpartisan, and I’m not particularly concerned about the political environment for the Federal
Reserve. I think the Fed will be—continue to be an important institution in the United States ,
and that it will maintain its independence going forward.
GREG ROBB. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Greg Robb, MarketWatch. Was there a
discussion among the Committee today about changing the forward guidance, the 6.5 percent
jobless rate? And could you say why the Committee decided to hold that steady in light of the
weaker economy?
CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. Well, as I mentioned earlier, the Committee has regularly
reviewed the forward guidance, and there are a number of ways in which the forward guidance
could be strengthened. For example, Mr. Ip mentioned an inflation floor. There are other steps
that we could take. We could provide more information about what happens after we get to
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6.5 percent and those sorts of things, and to the extent that we could provide precise guidance, I
think that would be desirable. Now, it’s very important that we not take any of these steps
lightly, that we make sure we understand all the implications, and that we are comfortable that it
will be—that any modifications of the guidance will be credible to markets and to the public .
So, we continue to think about options. There are a number of options that we have talked about.
But today, we— as of today, we didn’t choose to make any changes to the guidance.
DON LEE. Don Lee, L.A. Times. As you may know, the Census Bureau reported
yesterday that the poverty rate and the median household income saw no improvement last year.
And I wonder, when you see median incomes turning up significantly for most people, and in
light of the fact that people in the middle and the bottom have seen very little of the gains
relative to higher income households, how would you assess the—both quantitative easing and
Fed policies?
CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. Sure. So that’s certainly the case that there are too many
people in poverty. There are a lot of complex issues involved. There are complex measurement
issues, I would just have to mention that. There are a lot of issues that are really long-term issues
as well. For example, it might seem a puzzle that the U.S. economy gets richer and richer, and
yet there are more poor people.
And the explanation, of course, is that our economy is becoming more unequal. The
more very rich people and more people in the lower half who are not doing well, these are—
there’s a lot of reasons behind this trend, which has been going on for decades, and economists
disagree about the relative importance of things like technology and international trade and
unionization and other factors that have contributed to that. But I guess my first point is that
these long-run trends—it ’s important to address these trends, but the Federal Reserve doesn’t
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really have the tools to address these long-run distributional trends. They can only be addressed
really by Congress and by the Administration. And it’s up to them, I think, to take those steps.
The Federal Reserve is— we are doing our part to help the median family, the median American,
because one of our principal goals—we have two principal goals, one i s maximum employment,
jobs. The best way to help families is to create employment opportunities. We’re still not
satisfied, obviously, with where the labor market, the job market is. We’ll continue to try to
provide support for that. And then the other goal is price stability, low inflation, which, of
course, also helps make the economy work better for people in the middle and the lower parts of
the distribution.
So we use the tools that we have. It would be better to have a mix of tools at work—not
just monetary policy, but fiscal policy and other policies as well. But the Federal Reserve, we
can— you know, we only have a certain set of tools, and those are the ones that we use. Again,
our objective—our objectives of creating jobs and maintaining price stability, I think, are quite
consistent with helping the average American, but there’s limits to what we can do about long-
run trends, and I think those are very important issues that Congress and the Administration, you
know, need to look at and decide, you know, what needs to be done there.
JEREMY TORDJMAN. Hi, Jeremy Tordjman, with AFP. Some emerging countries are
blaming the Fed policies for the financial distress that they are experiencing. I wanted to have
your take on that. And also, how did you judge the way the markets reacted to your tapering
announcement back in June? Thank you very much.
CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. Well, let me just talk about— I talked a little bit about the
communication in June. Let me talk just about the emerging markets, which I think is an
important issue. Let me just first say that we have a lot of economists who spend all of their time
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looking at international aspects of monetary policy, and we spend a lot of time looking at
emerging markets. I spend a lot of time talking to my colleagues in emerging markets. So we’re
watching that very carefully. The United States is part of a globally integrated economic and
financial system, and problems in emerging markets—or in any country , for that matter—can
affect the United States as well. And so, again, we are watching those developments very
carefully.
It is true that changes in longer-term interest rates in the United States—but also in other
advanced economies—does have some effect on emerging markets, particularly those who are
trying to peg their exchange rate, and can lead to some capital inflows or outflows. But there are
also other factors that affect inflows and outflows. Those include changes in risk preference by
investors, changes in growth expectations, different perceptions of institutional strength within
emerging markets across different countries. So there are a lot of factors that are there playing a
role, and that’s one reason why different emerging markets have had different experiences. They
have different institutional structures and different policies. But, just to come to the bottom line
here, we think it’s very important that emerging markets grow and are prosperous. We pay close
attention to what’s happening in those countries— it affects the United States.
The main point, I guess, I would end with, though, is that what we’re trying to do with
our monetary policy here is, I think, my colleagues in the emerging markets recognize, is trying
to create a stronger U.S. economy. And a stronger U.S. economy is one of the most important
things that could happen to help the economies of emerging markets. And, again, I think my
colleagues in many of the emerging markets appreciate that—not withstanding some of the
effects that they may have felt—that efforts to strengthen the U .S. economy and other advanced
economies in Europe and elsewhere ultimately redounds to the benefit of the global economy,
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including emerging markets as well.
Thank you.