NBP MPC Press Release - 2015-11-04
Central bank: nbp | Type: decision | Date: 2015-11-04

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Warsaw, 4 November 2015 
 
 Information from the meeting of the Monetary Policy 
Council held on 3-4 November 2015 
 
The Council decided to keep the NBP interest rates unchanged: 
 reference rate at 1.50% on an annual basis; 
 lombard rate at 2.50% on an annual basis; 
 deposit rate at 0.50% on an annual basis; 
 rediscount rate at 1.75% on an annual basis. 
 
Growth of global economic activity remains moderate. In the euro area, economic 
recovery continues, and incoming data point to stable GDP growth in this economy. In 
the United States, GDP growth in the third quarter slowed down , however, the recovery 
is expected to continue in the coming quarters. At the same time , in China economic 
growth decreased again, while Russia and Brazil remain in recession. Therefore, 
concerns about the economic growth outlook in the emerging economies persist, which 
increases uncertainty about economic conditions worldwide. 
The fall in commodity prices in the recent months has contributed to lower inflation 
in many economies, including in the United States and the euro area. Against this 
background, the Federal Reserve and the ECB are keeping interest rates close to zero, 
although the Federal Reserve indicates the possibility of interest rate hike. On the other 
hand, the ECB continues its asset purchase programme and has signalled its extension, 
which has contributed to a decline in risk aversion in the financial markets in the recent 
period. 
 In Poland stable e conomic growth continues, driven mainly by domestic demand. 
The growth in demand is supported by robust labour market, strong consumer 
confidence, improvement in financial standing of enterprises as well as by stable lending 
growth. On the other hand, demand in the economy is adversely affected by uncertainty 
facing firms regarding the outlook for global growth. 
As demand is growing at a moderate pace and the output gap is still negative, there 
is no inflationary pressure in the economy. Both the annual consumer price growth and 
producer price growth remain negative. The sharp drop of commodity prices in the 
global markets remains the main reason for continued deflation. Amidst moderate wage 
growth, the fall in commodity prices contains the risk of increa sing cost pressure. 
Against this background, inflation expectations are still very low. 
The Council became acquainted with the projection of inflation and GDP prepared by 
the Economic Institute, which is one of the inputs to the Council’s decisions on NBP 
 
 
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interest rates. In line with the November projection based on the NECMOD model – 
prepared under the assumption of unchanged NBP interest rates and taking into account 
data available until 19 October 2015 (projection cut -off date) – there is a 50 -percent 
probability that the annual price growth will be in the range of -0.9 – -0.8% in 2015 (as 
compared to -1.1 – -0.4% in the July 2015 projection), 0.4 – 1.8% in 2016 (as compared to 
0.7 – 2.5%) and 0. 4 – 2.5% in 2017 (as compared to 0. 5 – 2.6%). At the same time, the 
annual GDP growth rate – in line with this projection – will be with a 50 -percent 
probability in the range of 2.9 – 3.9% in 2015 (as compared to 3.0 – 4.3% in the July 2015 
projection), 2.3 – 4.3% in 2016 (as compared to 2. 3 – 4.5%) and 2. 4 – 4.6% in 2017 (as 
compared to 2.5 – 4.7%). 
In the opinion of the Council, price growth will slowly increase in the nearest 
quarters, supported by the gradual closing of the output gap amid improving econo mic 
conditions in the euro area and favourable domestic labour market developments. At the 
same time, the risk of a sharper slowdown in the emerging economies and the impact 
this may have on global economic activity, as well as the possibility of commodity prices 
persisting at low levels , and as a result, low inflation in the environment of the Polish 
economy, remain the source of uncertainty about the pace of inflation returning to the 
target. 
The Council decided to keep the NBP interest rates unchanged. 
The Council adopted Inflation Report – November 2015.