CBR Quarterly Inflation Review - Q3 2010
Central bank: cbr | Type: quarterly_review | Date: 2010-09-30

THE CENTRAL BANK
OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
(BANK OF RUSSIA)
Quarterly
Inflation
Review
2010 Q3
Research and Information Department
The electronic version of Quarterly Inflation Review is available on the Bank of Russia's website:

Contents
Introduction. .................................................................................................................3
Inflation.Dynamics. ........................................................................................................4
Consumer prices ....................................................................................................................... 4
Housing prices ......................................................................................................................... 6
Producer prices ......................................................................................................................... 6
Foreign trade ............................................................................................................................ 8
Demand ................................................................................................................................. 11
Supply .................................................................................................................................... 14
Labour market ......................................................................................................................... 15
Monetary.Conditions...................................................................................................17
Exchange rate ........................................................................................................................ 17
Interest rates .......................................................................................................................... 19
Asset prices ............................................................................................................................ 22
Monetary aggregates .............................................................................................................. 23
Credit aggregates ................................................................................................................... 24
Bank.of.Russia.press.releases.on.monetary.policy.measures.in.2010.Q3......................... 27
Statistical.Addendum.................................................................................................. 31
2010 Q3 3
Introduction
In January-September 2010, the Russian
economy demonstrated gradual recovery from
the global financial and economic crisis. Produc -
tion growth was registered in most of the major
types of economic activity. The highest growth
rates in the output of goods and services were
observed in the first half of the year. This growth,
however , slowed down in 2010 Q3. Agricultural
output declined considerably amid unfavourable
weather conditions. Low production growth rates
were registered in construction and transport.
As production expanded, the number of
employed in the economy increased. Production
growth was supported by rising consumer and
investment demand. However , demand remained
below the potential output lev el, according to es-
timates.
In January-July 2010, inflation was observed
to decline while in August-September consumer
price growth accelerated noticeably. Inflation in -
creased as the growth in food prices quickened.
However , in January-September 2010, inflation
was lower than in the same period last year. Infla-
tion is expected to be lower in 2010 than in 2009.
In these macroeconomic conditions, the
Bank of Russia kept unchanged from June 2010
the band of interest rates on its operations ranging
from 2.5% p.a. (standard overnight deposits) to
7.75% p.a. (overnight loans). This policy was pri-
marily conditioned by the need to support inter -
nal factors of growth amid the persisting negative
output gap. Inflationary processes accelerated in
August-September 2010 due to short-term vola-
tility in a price segment, which made the tighten-
ing of monetary policy inexpedient. The risks of
slow recovery in demand and credit activity were
considered as more important.
The annual rates of growth in money sup -
ply (M2) increased relatively quickly and stayed
at the level of about 30% from May 2010. Sea -
sonally-adjusted M2 monthly growth rates were
on average faster in 2010 Q3 than in the previous
quarter. Growth in money supply was influenced
significantly by Bank of Russia interventions in the
domestic foreign exchange mar ket, and also by
the gradual expansion of banks’ lending to the
real sector of the economy.
Although the recovery of bank lending con -
tinued in the third quarter , credit aggregates reg-
istered slow annual growth rates. The annual rate
of growth in total debt on loans stood at 7.1% as
of October 1, 2010. Bank lending growth was
stimulated by high liquidity in the money market
and the expansion of banks’ deposits. Lending will
further expand as the consequence of lower risks
in the banking system, increased economic activ-
ity and, as a result, stronger demand for loans.
Major interest rates in the Russian financial
market continued to decline in 2010 Q3, as the
Bank of Russia kept its interest rates unchanged
and banking sector total reserves increased.
The current economic recovery does not exert
inflation pressure so far. The government’s current
balanced fiscal policy and its expected tightening
could restrain price dynamics. At the same time,
the expansion of aggregate money supply, which
accelerated considerably at the end of 2009 and
at the beginning of 2010 to reach the level ex -
ceeding the rates of growth in money demand,
suggests that monetary factors may increase in -
flationary risks by the end of 2010 and in the first
half of 2011.
4 2010 Q3
tion, which stood at 4.3% as against 7.3% in
the same period last year. The rise in the prices of
goods and services taken into account when cal -
culating core inflation accounted for an estimated
3.5 percentage points, or 55.5% of the inflation
rate (this compares with 5.9 percentage points,
or 73.3%, in January-September 2009). Core
inflation accounted for an estimated 2.2% in the
third quarter of 2010 as compared with 1.3% in
the third quarter of the previous year.
In August-September 2010, unfavourable
weather conditions had an adverse impact on
food prices and inflation rates. Food price indices
registered their record highs in August and Sep -
Inflation Dynamics
Consumer prices
Consumer prices rose by 6.2% in the first
nine months of 2010, a decrease of 1.9 percent-
age points on the same period last year. At the
same time, consumer prices grew by 1.8% in the
third quarter of 2010, which represents an in -
crease of 1.2 percentage points as compared with
the third quarter of 2009. In September 2010,
consumer prices went up by 7.0% year on year
and in the first nine months of the year they in -
creased by 6.4% as compared with the same pe-
riod a year earlier.
The slowing of inflation in January-Septem -
ber 2010 was prin cipally the result of core infla-
Consumer price inflation (%)
Growth (September 2010
on December 2009)
Growth (September 2009
on December 2008)
Prices of goods and services, total 6.2 8.1 Slowing of growth by 1.9 percentage points
of which:
– food prices 8.4 5.8 Acceleration of growth by 2.6 percentage points
– food prices, excluding vegetable and fruit prices 5.9 6.3 Slowing of growth by 0.4 percentage points
– non-food prices 3.1 8.3 Slowing of growth by 5.2 percentage points
– prices of paid services provided to households 7.4 11.0 Slowing of growth by 3.6 percentage points
Prices of goods and services included in core inflation calculation 4.3 7.3 Slowing of growth by 3.0 percentage points
Source: Rosstat.
Inflation Dynamics
2010 Q3 5
tember since 1999. Food prices rose by 8.4%
in January-September 2010 as compared with
5.8% in the same period last year.
The most significant increase in food prices,
excluding vegetable and fruit prices, in January-
September 2010 was regis tered in groats and
beans (36.6% as against 1.9% in the same pe -
riod a year earlier) and butter (14.4% as com -
pared with a 0.1% decrease in January-Septem -
ber 2009). The prices of granulated sugar grew
by 13.2% (in January-September 2009, they
increased by 50.6%). Other major food price in -
creases ranged from 1.4% to 10.5%. In January-
September 2009, most of major food price in -
creases ranged from 2.1% to 13.5%. The prices
of milk and dairy products declined by 0.8%, sun-
flower oil by 18.2% and eggs by 16.9%.
Overall, food prices, excluding vegetable
and fruit prices, increased by 5.9% in January-
September 2010 (as against 6.3% in the same
period a year earlier). Growth in food prices ac -
counted for an estimated 2.0 percentage points,
or 32.9%, of the headline inflation (this com -
pares with an estimated 2.1 percentage points, or
26.7%, in the same period a year earlier).
Vegetable and fruit prices gained 31.3%
in the first nine months of 2010 (as against 0.8%
in the same period a year earlier). It has been es -
timated that due to the rise in vegetable and fruit
prices the headline inflation went up by 1.1 per -
centage points, or 18.2%, of overall consumer
price growth (this compares with 0.4% of over -
all consumer price growth in January-September
2009).
Growth in non-food prices slowed to 3.1%
in January-September 2010 from 8.3% in the
same period last year. The increase in non-food
prices accounted for an estimated 1.1 percent -
age points, or 18.3%, of the headline inflation.
In January-September 2009, it accounted for
3.1 percentage points, or 38.7%. The most sig -
nificant growth was registered in the prices of
tobacco products (by 15.3% as against 17.0%
in January-September 2009). The prices of fab -
rics, clothing, underwear and footwear rose by
2.6-4.6%. The price of petrol went up by 3.8%,
whereas the prices of TV sets and radios and
medicine prices declined by 1.6% and 3.8%,
respectively. In January-September 2009, petrol
prices went up by 10.5%, medicine prices grew
by 16.2% and the prices of TV sets and radios in-
creased by 4.7%.
The prices of paid services provided to
house holds gained 7.4% in January-September
2010 as against 11.0% in the same period of
2009 and accounted for an estimated 1.9 per -
centage points, or 30.6%, of overall consumer
price growth (2.8 percentage points, or 34.2%,
of the headline inflation in January-September
2009).
Administered prices of services grew by an
estimated 11.3% in January-September 2010
or 2.7 percentage points slower than in the same
period last year. Housing and public utility prices
Food price inflation (%)
Growth (September 2010
on December 2009)
Growth (September 2009
on December 2008)
Foodstuffs 8.4 5.8 Acceleration of growth by 2.6 percentage points
Bread and bakery products 4.6 2.1 Acceleration of growth by 2.5 percentage points
Groats and beans 36.6 1.9 Acceleration of growth by 34.7 percentage points
Pasta 1.4 3.4 Slowing of growth by 2.0 percentage points
Meat and poultry 4.2 5.7 Slowing of growth by 1.5 percentage points
Fish and seafood 1.8 13.5 Slowing of growth by 11.7 percentage points
Milk and dairy products 10.5 -0.8
Butter 14.4 -0.1
Sunflower oil 6.8 -18.2
Granulated sugar 13.2 50.6 Slowing of growth by 37.4 percentage points
Vegetables and fruit 31.3 0.8 Acceleration of growth by 30.5 percentage points
Alcoholic beverages 6.9 7.7 Slowing of growth by 0.8 percentage points
Source: Rosstat.
6 2010 Q3
rose by 12.2% as against 18.6% in January-Sep-
tember 2009. Passenger transport fees grew by
7.3% in the period under review as against 6.7%
in the same period of 2009.
Growth in the prices of most of the services
included in the core inflation calculation slowed
down in January-September 2010.
Growth in the prices of paid services provid -
ed to households in the first nine months of 2010
exceeded the overall growth in the prices of goods
by 1.6 percent age points (3.9 percentage points
in the same period of 2009).
According to Rosstat data, in January-Sep -
tember 2010, consumer price growth was slower
than in the same period of 2009 in all federal
districts.
Estimates show that the difference between
the constituent territories of the Russian Federa -
tion in terms of the price of a fixed set of goods
and services used by the Federal State Statistics
Service for interregional comparisons of the pur -
chasing power of the population narrowed in Jan-
uary-September 2010. Specifically, the regional
difference ratio1 decreased to 39.6% in the first
nine months of 2010 from 42.4% in the same
period of 2009.
The rates of growth in food prices, excluding
veg etable and fruit prices, ranged from 5.0% to
1 The regional difference ratio is calculated by the Bank of
Russia as the difference between the price of a fixed set of
goods and services in the most and least expensive regions
relative to the national average cost of the set.
7.4% in the federal districts in January-September
2010, while the rates of non-food price growth
changed within the range of 2.2-3.7%.
The rates of growth in vegetable and fruit
prices differed significantly by region. For exam -
ple, in the Far Eastern Federal District vegetable
and fruit prices rose by 10.3%, whereas in the
Southern Federal District they grew by 40.8%.
The rates of growth in the prices of paid ser-
vices provided to households in most federal dis -
tricts were slower in January-September 2010
than in the same period of 2009 and ranged from
6.7% to 10.7%.
Housing prices
In September 2010, housing prices rose by
0.1% as compared with December 2009 in the
primary market and by 1.8% in the secondary
market. In September 2009, housing prices fell
by 7.1% as compared with December 2008 in
the primary market and by 9.8% in the secondary
market.
In January-September 2010, housing price
dynamics were influenced by some rebound in
the real estate market amid the contraction of
commissioned housing. Specifically, in the first
nine months of 2010 commissioned housing
decreased by 5.5% as compared with the same
period of 2009 and a year earlier the respective
figure was 0.7%.
Producer prices
Industrial producer prices rose by 8.2% in
January-September 2010 as against 14.9% in
the same period a year earlier. This downturn was
largely the result of the decrease in price growth
rates in mining and quarrying, which fell to 1.8%
in January-September 2010 from 53.5% in the
same period of 2009. Producer prices in the min-
ing and quarrying of energy producing materials
went up by 0.1%, whereas in January-September
2009 they grew by 67.4%.
In January-September 2010, price growth in
electricity, gas and water supply stood at 13.6%,
which represents a decline of 4.4 per centage
points on the same period of 2009.
In January-September 2010, producer prices
in the manu facturing industries rose by 10.5%,
an increase of 4.0 percentage points on the same
period last year. The biggest price growth was
Inflation Dynamics
2010 Q3 7
6.3%. Producer prices of leather , leather goods
and footwear grew by 10.6%, an increase of 6.1
percentage points on January-September 2009.
Freight transportation charges rose by
45.0% in the first nine months of 2010 as against
14.4% in the same period a year earlier. Growth in
pipeline transportation charges accelerated con -
siderably to 79.0% in January-September 2010
from 21.2% in the same period last year.
Communication fees for corporate en-
tities increased by 7.0% in the first nine months
of 2010 as against 2.0% in the same period of
2009.
registered in the production of coke (52.7%),
chemicals (19.9%) and metals (18.1%) (in Jan -
uary-September 2009, prices in the production
of coke and chemicals declined by 12.8% and
0.5%, respectively, while prices in the production
of metals went up by 4.4%). Petroleum product
producer prices grew by a moderate 9.4% as
against 37.2% a year earlier. Growth in producer
prices of consumer goods accelerated. Specifical-
ly, growth in producer prices of foodstuffs, includ-
ing beverag es, and tobacco products increased by
1.5 percent age points from January-September
2009 to 7.5% and in the manufacture of textile
and textile products by 0.5 per centage points to
8 2010 Q3
Foreign trade
In the third quarter of 2010, the price situ -
ation for major Russian export commodities 2 in
world markets remained virtually unchanged
from the previous quarter but was better than in
the third quarter of 2009. In January-September
2010, world energy prices increased by a quarter
on average as compared with the same period last
year while non-energy prices gained 9%.
In 2010, the dynamics of world oil prices
were influenced by the recovery of oil demand vir-
tually to the 2007 level 3, the faster growth in oil
demand in China and other Asian countries, the
raising of world oil demand forecasts in 2010-
2 Average prices have been calculated on the basis of data re-
ported daily by the following news agencies and exchanges:
Reuters for oil, The Financial Times for petroleum products
(petrol, diesel fuel and fuel oil) and the London Metal Ex -
change for non-ferrous metals (aluminium, copper and nick-
el). Ferrous metal price indices and data on average monthly
prices of natural gas and other commodities were provided
by the World Bank and the IMF .
3 According to data provided by the US Energy Information
Administration (EIA, October 2010), the world oil demand
reached its record high in 2007.
Producer prices of building materials
went up by 7.3% in January-September 2010,
whereas in the same pe riod last year they fell by
0.2%.
Agricultural producer prices increased
by 8.3% in January-September 2010 against
a drop of 3.7% in the corresponding period of
2009. Moreover , they grew by 9.4% in August-
September 2010. Crop grower prices rose by
12.0%, whereas in January-September 2009
they dropped by 6.2%. The prices of grains and
legumes grew by 13.1% while sunflower pric -
es increased by 20.9% in January-September
2010 whereas in the same period of 2009 they
decreased by 5.3% and 2.3%, respectively.
Livestock prices went up by 6.1% (in January-
September 2009, they fell by 2.0%). Cattle and
poultry prices increased by 1.6% in the first nine
months of 2010 as against 7.7% in the same pe-
riod of 2009. Milk prices rose by 16.6%, whereas
egg prices fell by 0.8%. In January-September
2009, these prices were down by 14.8% and
18.1%, respectively.
Inflation in countries trading with Russia1
Inflation in the countries accounting for a substantial portion of Russian imports increased to 2.6% in Jan-
uary-September 2010 (September against December of the previous year) from 2.3% in the same period of
2009. This was the result of the acceleration of inflation in some of Russia’s large trading partners, such as
China, Germany and Turkey, and the slowing of de -
flation in Japan. In China, inflation was spurred by
the growth in food prices and the increase in housing
and public utility prices. In Germany, inflation accel-
erated due to the growth in food and energy prices.
Inflation rates in other countries trading with
Russia were also significantly affected by the growth
in food prices in recent months. This was the result
of the acceleration of growth in the prices of agricul-
tural products in world markets. In some countries,
inflation rates were also noticeably affected by the
growth in household energy prices. In particular, nat-
ural gas prices for households in Ukraine were raised
by 50% from August 1, 2010. The contribution of
energy price growth to inflation may increase taking
into account a significant rise in world oil prices from
mid-September. Nevertheless, fundamental factors,
first of all, considerable negative output gaps in the
advanced economies that are expected to persist for
a long time, continue to restrain inflation processes
in Russia’s trading partners.
1 According to data reported by national statistics agencies of Russia’s trading partners.
Inflation Dynamics
2010 Q3 9
2011, the situation in the leading global foreign
exchange and stock markets and the channelling
of considerable funds into commodity markets for
investment purposes. As a result, the world mar -
ket price of Russian oil increased by 11.8% in the
third quarter of 2010 as compared with the same
quarter of 2009 and in January-September 2010
it was by 34.7% higher on average than in the
same period last year and stood at $75.8 per bar-
rel.
The petroleum product price trend mostly
fol lowed that of the oil price. In January-Septem-
ber 2010, the price of petrol went up by 31.0%,
diesel fuel 32.8% and fuel oil 36.6% as com -
pared with the same period last year. The recovery
of natural gas prices in Europe resumed in 2010
Q3. As a result, natural gas prices in Europe grew
by 9.9% in the third quarter of 2010, quarter on
quarter , to exceed for the first time in 2010 the
price level registered in the corresponding quar -
ter of 2009 (by 19.5%). In January-September
2010, however , natural gas prices in Europe were
9.0% lower than in the same period last year.
As ferrous metal prices recovered slowly, they
remained by 2.3% lower in January-September
2010 than in the same period of 2009. In 2010,
non-ferrous metal prices in the world market were
influenced by the growing demand for these met-
als, especially from China. As a result, the price of
aluminium grew by a factor of 1.4 and the price
of copper and nickel by a factor of 1.5 in January-
September 2010 as compared with the same pe-
riod last year.
World market prices of foodstuffs and agri -
cultural raw materials 4 changed sharply in mid-
2010: in June, the prices of sugar , Canadian
wheat and barley started to grow while in July
there was an increase in the prices of US wheat,
maize, rice and vegetable fats. Meat prices were
stable amid the growth of grain prices.
The expectations of considerably lower
grain harvests as a result of extremely unfavour-unfavour-
able weather conditions (the drought in Russia,
Kazakhstan and Ukraine; heavy rains in Canada,
some Asian and European countries; severe frosts
in some countries in South America) predeter -
mined sharp increases in grain prices. Russia’s
ban on grain exports5 and restrictions imposed by
Ukraine on grain supplies to the world market in-
tensified this trend. As a result, the prices of Amer-
ican wheat and maize went up by 34.1% and
15.2%, respectively, while the prices of Canadian
wheat and barley grew by 25.0% and 10.2% in
the third quarter of 2010 as compared with the
previous quarter. However , the prices of US and
Canadian wheat were by 11.6% and 5.7% lower
in January-September 2010 than in the same pe-
riod last year. At the same time, the prices of US
maize and Canadian barley were higher by 1.6%
4 Average sugar prices have been calculated on the basis of
data provided daily by the London Commodity Exchange,
while other prices are monthly averages published by the
World Bank and the IMF .
5 Since August 15, 2010, Russia has imposed a temporary
ban on the exports of wheat, meslin, barley, rye, maize,
wheat or wheat and rye flour.
10 2010 Q3
of lower meat supplies to the world market from
Brazil and the contraction in meat exports from
Argentine pushed up beef and pork prices. The
world poultry market was influenced by the ex -
pansion of poultry produc tion in Brazil, China and
Russia, the fall in demand in some countries and
the lowering of demand growth forecasts for Asia
and the Middle East. The growth in grain prices
that determined the dynamics of fodder grain
prices did not affect meat prices in the third quar-
ter of 2010 (quarter on quarter , beef prices fell by
3.4% while the growth of poultry and pork prices
slowed to 1.7% and 0.9%, respectively). In Janu-
ary-September 2010, beef prices rose by 26.4%
and pork prices grew by 37.3% as compared with
the same period of 2009, whereas poultry prices
decreased by 1.0%.
The decrease in oil crop harvests as a result of
unfavourable weather conditions caused a rise in
the prices of vegetable fats in the world market in
the third quarter of 2010. At the same time, the
expectations of good soya bean harvests in some
regions of the world contained growth in the
prices of vegetable fats. As a result, in January-
and 23.0%, respectively, in the first nine months
of 2010 as compared with the corresponding pe-
riod a year earlier.
The steady growth of meat consumption, es-growth of meat consumption, es-
pecially in Asian countries, amid the decrease in
the world’s cattle population and the expectations
International trade
According to estimates of the International Energy Agency (IEA), in January-September 2010 the world
consumption of oil in creased by 2.8%, as compared with the same period last year. Half of this growth was attrib-
utable to the increase in oil consumption in Asian countries (excluding the region’s countries that are members of
the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD), primarily in China. In European countries,
members of the OECD, oil consumption was 1.7% lower than in January-September 2009 but increased consid-
erably in the third quarter of 2010. The average price of Brent, Dubai and WTI crude rose to $76.9 per barrel in
the first nine months of 2010 from $57.2 per barrel in January-September 2009 (by 34.5%).
According to Eurostat data, EU import quantities of mineral fuel and lubricants declined by about 4.5% in
Jan uary-August 2010, as compared with the same period of 2009 (the difference was largely the result of the
considerable reduction in import quantities in the first quarter of 2010 as compared with the corresponding
quarter of the previous year). The average unit value of imports of these commodities 1 increased by a third in
January-September 2010 as compared with the same period of the previous year as a result of the rise in the
world oil prices and the euro’s considerable depreciation in the first half of 2010. The contract price of Russian
natural gas exported to Germany in the first nine months of 2010 was on average by 16.5% lower than in the
corresponding period last year. In the third quarter of 2010, this contract price was higher than both in the previ-
ous quarter and in the corresponding quarter of 2009.
According to the IEA’s forecast, world oil consumption will rise by 2.5% in 2010, whereas in Europe oil
consumption may decline by 1.1%. In October 2010, the IMF raised its estimate for the average price of the
three blends of crude oil in 2010 as compared with its forecast published in July. According to the consensus
forecasts published by the news agencies Thomson-Reuters and Bloomberg in October 2010, the price of Brent
crude may equal $78.3-78.5 per barrel on average in 2010 (in January-September 2010, it stood at $77.2 per
barrel). According to the IMF’s forecast (October 2010), international trade in goods and services will grow by
11.4% in 2010.
1 The average unit value of imports is the ratio of changes in the value of imports of particular commodities to
changes in the import quantities.
Inflation Dynamics
2010 Q3 11
September 2010, palm oil was by 24.7% more
expensive than in the same period last year.
The growth in sugar prices resumed in the
world market due to the lowering of sugarcane
harvest forecasts as a result of unfavourable
weather conditions in Brazil, Pakistan, Mexico and
Central America, and also due to the decrease of
sugar production in South Africa and the contrac-
tion in world sugar stocks. As a result, in the third
quarter of 2010 the price of raw sugar grew by
34.8% and the price of refined sugar went up by
22.0% as compared with the previous quarter. In
January-September 2010, the prices of raw sugar
and refined sugar were by 33.7% and 34.7%
higher than in the same period of 2009.
Demand
Domestic demand
Growth in both consumer and investment
demand continued in the third quarter of 2010.
Wage and pension increases contributed
to growth in household real disposable income,
which went up by 4.8% in January-September
2010. In 2010 Q3, the household propen sity to
consume was higher as households purchased
larger amounts of foodstuffs amid the expected
increase in the prices of certain groups of food -
stuffs. In January-September 2010, the share
of household spending on goods and services
was unchanged from the corresponding period
of 2009 and stood at 71%. The household pro -
pensity for organised savings slightly declined in
2010 Q3 but increased by 1.1 percentage points
in January-September 2010, as compared with
the same period last year , to reach 14.2%, in
which deposits and securities accounted for 6.9%
(2.3% in January-September 2009). The share of
household spending on the purchase of foreign
currency decreased by 2.8 percentage points to
3.6% in the first nine months of 2010.
Household final con sumption expenditures
increased by 2.3% in the first half of 2010. The
improved situation in the labour market and the
revival of consumer lending stimulated growth in
household real spending on goods and services,
which rose by an estimated 4.3% in January-Sep-
tember 2010, as compared with the same period
of 2009. The growth in consumer spending con -
tributed to an increase in the retail trade turnover
(by 4.4%) and the volume of paid services pro -
vided to households (by 1.1%).
In January-June 2010, the share of imported
goods in the retail trade resources increased by an
estimated 0.5 per centage points year on year , to
43%. The share of food imports grew by one per-
centage point to 35%.
As domestic demand recovered, growth in
the imports of goods continued to accelerate in
2010 Q3, mostly as a result of the expansion in
GDP by expenditure
(growth as % of corresponding period of previous year)
2009 2010
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Full year Q1 Q2
GDP -9.3 -11 -8.6 -2.9 -7.9 3.1 5.2
Final consumption -1.5 -5.3 -8 -5.4 -5.1 0.6 3.5
of which:
– households -2.8 -8 -11.4 -8.1 -7.7 0.1 4.6
Gross capital formation -50.4 -50.6 -32.4 -22.5 -37.4 -1.3 33.3
Net exports 26.1 80.5 125.6 73.6 56.6 38.5 -34.3
Source: Rosstat.
12 2010 Q3
import quantities. Import prices also increased.
Growth in the imports of investment goods slight-
ly accelerated while food imports grew slower in
2010 Q3. The imports of these groups of goods
expanded slower than the imports of industrial
raw materials and intermediate industrial prod -
ucts, and also non-food consumer goods. In Jan-
uary-September 2010, the imports of goods (ac-
cording to the balance of payments estimate as
of October 5, 2010) rose by 30.8% as compared
with the same period of 2009 (the imports of
goods grew by 38.8% in 2010 Q3 as compared
with the corresponding quarter of the previous
year).
In 2010 H1, government expenditure on fi-
nal consumption increased by 1.2%. According
to the Federal Treasury’s data, budget expendi ture
decreased to 34.6% of GDP in January-Septem -
ber 2010 as against 37.2% in the same period of
2009. Non-interest expen ditures accounted for
34.0% of GDP as against 36.6% in the same pe-
riod a year earlier. These dy namics are chiefly the
result of the scaling down of the anti-crisis mea -
sures implemented by the gov ernment.
In January-September 2010, the general
government’s bud get had a surplus of 0.3% of
GDP , whereas a def icit of 3.4% of GDP was regis-
tered in the same period of 2009. The Budget and
Tax Policy Guidelines for 2011 and the Planning
Period of 2012 and 2013 envisage a budget defi-
cit of 6.2% of GDP in 2010, which represents a
decrease from the previous year’s deficit of 6.9%
of GDP . The improvement of the Russian budget
system, which may continue in the medium term,
reflects the Russian Govern ment’s consistent ef -
Analysis of factors affecting budget balance dynamics
A change in the actual budget balance of a country, which is called the fiscal impulse 1, is an important
indicator used in international practice to measure macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy. Below is the analysis
of its components for the Russian general budget in 2000-2009, and also an estimate for the planning period
until 2013.
The budget balance and its dynamics are influenced by several components, the main of which are the
cyclical and structural ones. As Russia’s budget revenue considerably depends on the proceeds from oil-and-gas
exports, the budget should be examined separately for oil-and-gas and non-oil-and-gas revenues. The cyclical
component of the non-oil-and-gas budget revenues comprises the so-called automatic stabilisers that directly
depend on changes in economic activity: they reduce the budget balance at the time of economic downturn and
increase it at the time of economic upswing. In the Russian general budget, these items comprise major budget
revenues, and also some budget expenditures, such as unemployment benefits. The structural component, or
the so-called discretionary policy measures, comprises budget items that mainly depend on the government’s
actions. In the Russian general budget, these items include almost all expenditures, and also a small part of rev-
enues. The government’s anti-crisis measures are an important part of these measures.
The base oil price is used to divide oil-and-gas revenues into the structural and cyclical components2. Bud-
get revenues resulting from the base level of prices are referred to the structural component while the cyclical
component of oil-and-gas proceeds reflects revenue deviations from the base price level.
1 See European Central Bank. Euro Area Fiscal Policies and the Crisis. Occasional Paper Series, № 109 / April
2010, Ch. 3.
2 See, for example, Vladkova-Hollar I., Zettelmeyer J. (2008). Fiscal Positions in Latin America: Have They Really
Improved? IMF Working Paper, No. 137.
Inflation Dynamics
2010 Q3 13
Net interest payments (budget interest revenues net of budget interest expenditures) are treated sepa -
rately. Considering the above components, the fiscal impulse may be calculated using the following formula:
– OB = –( NOGRc + NOGRs + OGRc+ OGRs + NINT), where
OB – overall budget balance;
NOGRC – non-oil-and-gas revenue cyclical component;
NOGRS – non-oil-and-gas revenue structural component;
OGRC – oil-and-gas revenue cyclical component;
OGRS – oil-and-gas revenue structural component;
NINT – net interest payments3.
The fiscal impulse components were analysed for the period of 2000-2009 (reported data), 2010 (esti -
mate) and 2011-2013 (budget projections) based on the IMF methodology4 (See the Chart).
The analysis of the factors affecting budget bal-
ance dynamics offers the following conclusions. In
2000-2009, interest payment dynamics contributed
to growth in Russia’s budget balance as the country’s
public finance improved from the early 2000s as a
result of a contraction in the country’s sovereign debt
and the accumulation of reserves mainly in the oil-
and-gas wealth funds. In 2010-2013, the need to
finance the budget deficit will considerably reduce
reserves and increase Russia’s sovereign debt, which
will adversely affect the dynamics of net interest pay-
ments.
The fiscal impulse decomposition into the cycli-
cal and structural components shows that the change
in budget balance is largely the result of changes in
the cyclical component of oil-and-gas revenues and
the government’s discretionary measures. In 2008-
2009, the government’s discretionary policy mainly
focused on anti-crisis measures. In 2000-2008, fis-
cal policy tightening resulted from growth in oil-and-
gas revenues while fiscal policy easing was the con -
sequence of the negative dynamics of discretionary
measures. In the medium-term perspective, the role of oil-and-gas revenues in the budget balance dynamics is
expected to decline while the planned fiscal policy tightening will result from cuts in discretionary policy mea -
sures.
The analysis also allows to assess the cyclicality of the government’s fiscal policy. Counter-cyclical or sta -
bilising fiscal policy requires fiscal policy tightening or easing during the economic cycle’s positive or negative
phase, which may be characterised by the output gap dynamics. The government’s pro-cyclical fiscal policy was
observed in 2005-2008. In 2005, this policy resulted from the dynamics of the budget’s oil-and-gas revenues
whereas in 2006-2008 it was caused by discretionary policy measures, which added to the economy’s “over -
heating.” In 2009, however, fiscal policy easing was justified and stemmed from the need to mitigate the impact
of the financial and economic crisis on the country’s economy.
The Russian Government’s countercyclical fiscal policy is expected to continue until 2013. As Russia is exit-
ing from the crisis and switching to sustainable growth, the government is expected to consistently tighten its
fiscal policy through cuts in discretionary policy measures.
Overall, the analysis shows that the Russian Government’s current and planned medium-term fiscal policy
aims to stabilise the economy.
3 Indicators as a percentage of GDP .
4 See Fedelino A., Ivanova A., Horton M. Computing Cyclically Adjusted Balances and Automatic Stabilizers. IMF
T echnical Notes and Manuals 09 / 05 and Vladkova-Hollar I., Zettelmeyer J. (2008). Fiscal Positions in Latin
America: Have They Really Improved? IMF Working Paper, No. 137.
14 2010 Q3
forts to tighten the fiscal policy for the sake of
strengthening macroeconomic stability and long-
term sustainability of public finance.
Gross fixed capital formation expanded by an
estimated 1.1% in January-June 2010. As the fi-
nancial position of enterprises improved and bor-
rowed funds became more accessible, investment
activity increased in 2010 Q3. In January-Sep -
tember 2010, fixed capital investment expanded
by 3.8% year on year.
Investments in machinery, equipment and
transport vehicles accounted for over a third of
total investments in January-June 2010. At the
same time, the share of investments made to
acquire imported equipment contracted from
January-June 2009 by 3.2 percentage points to
20.1%. The imports of machinery, equipment
and transport vehicles grew by 27.8% in January-
June 2010.
The share of own funds used to finance fixed
capital investment expanded in January-June
2010. However , the investment was financed
mostly by raised funds (55.1%). Bank loans ac -
counted for 9.2%, a contraction by 2.8 per-
centage points from 2009 H1.
As exports grew faster than imports in real
terms, net exports of goods and services in-
creased by 8.3% in January-June 2010.
Foreign demand
Growth in foreign demand for Russian goods
slowed down in 2010 Q3. Russian ex port quanti-
ties contracted as compared with 2010 Q1 and
Q2. Exports increased by 37.8% to $286.6 bil -
lion in January-September 2010 (according to
the balance of payments estimate as of October
5, 2010), which was largely the result of the rise
in prices. In January-September 2010, exports of
oil, petroleum products (except petrol), natural
gas, ferrous metals, mineral fertiliser , processed
timber and some other commodities grew in
quantity as compared with the same period last
year. Growth in exports to the EU member coun -
tries was slightly faster than overall export growth.
The share of the European Union in Russia’s com-
modity exports increased in January-September
2010 due to the expansion of the share of the
Netherlands and Germany as the principal im -
porters of Russian goods. Growth in exports to
the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation member
countries and overall export growth slowed down
but outpaced considerably the growth in exports
to the EU member countries. Exports to Japan and
other APEC member countries in the Asian region,
and also to the United States grew rapidly where-
as growth in exports to China continued to slow
down. Exports to CIS member countries increased
considerably slower than overall exports and ex -
panded largely due to the fast growth in exports
to Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova.
Supply
In January-September 2010, there was a rise
in output in most of the key types of economic
activity. Output in the basic economic activities
increased by 4.8% on the same period last year
(in January-September 2009, it contracted by
12.5%). Nevertheless, output declined in certain
Economic growth in foreign countries1
GDP in the group of countries accounting for a large part of Russian exports increased by an estimated
3.6% in January-September 2010, as compared with the same period last year (in January-September 2009, it
contracted by 4.8%). Preliminary data show that US GDP grew by 2.8%, eurozone GDP 1.5% and China’s GDP
10.6%. In 2010 Q2, GDP in the economies of Russia’s trading partners demonstrated higher-than-expected
growth rates due to the expansion of private consumption and investment activity; however, in certain countries
investment decline was observed to continue. Growth in foreign demand is expected to decelerate in 2010 Q3
and Q4, in particular under the impact of the higher statistical base effect.
According to the IMF forecast published in October 2010, the world production of goods and ser vices will
increase by 4.8% in 2010 (in July, it was expected to grow by 4.6%). US GDP is expected to expand by 2.6%,
eurozone GDP 1.7% and China’s GDP 10.5%. However, the economies of Rus sia’s trading partners continue
to face risks caused by possible lack of resources to boost considerably private consumption and investment
activity. These risks remain high primarily for the world’s leading economies, which considerably influence other
economies.
1 According to data compiled by the national statistics agencies of Russia’s trading partners.
Inflation Dynamics
2010 Q3 15
types of economic activity in 2010 Q3. Output
contracted in agriculture while growth deceler -
ated considerably in transport and was slow in
construction.
In January-September 2010, agricultural
output declined by 10.7% and volume of works
in construction by 0.8%. At the same time, out -
put expanded by 8.5% in transport, 4.4% in re -
tail trade and 1.3% in wholesale trade.
Industrial output grew by 8.9% in January-
September 2010, whereas in the same period of
2009 it contracted by 12.9%. High rates of out -
put growth were registered in the manufacturing
industries (12.6%), especially the production of
transport vehicles (31%), electrical, electronic
and optical equipment (24.3%) and rubber and
plastic products (21.2%).
Output in mining and quarrying rose by
4.2%; particularly marked growth was regis -
tered in the mining and quarrying of natural gas
(14.7%) and coal (8.4%).
According to the Ministry of Agriculture’s lat-
est data, 62.3 million tonnes of grain had been
threshed by mid-October , which represents a de-
crease of 36.8% on the same period last year.
According to data released by the Russian
Economic Barometer , industrial production ca-
pacity utilisation ratio stood at 71% on average in
January-September 2010 as against 64% in Jan-
uary-September 2009. The highest capacity utili-
sation ratio was registered in timber and wood-
working industry (76%) and machine-building
(75%), whereas the lowest ratio was observed in
the building mate rials industry (67%) and chemi-
cal industry (65%).
In January-September 2010, GDP grew by
an estimated 3.6%, as com pared with the same
period last year. The output gap remained nega -
tive.
Labour market
The number of employed in the econ omy
increased by an estimated 0.5% in January-
September 2010, whereas in the same period of
2009 it fell by 2.4%.
Labour productivity increased by an estimat-
ed 3.9% in 2010 H1. Estimates show that labour
productivity in production of goods grew consid-
erably faster than in production of services dur -
ing this period. Growth in the output of goods
considerably exceeded growth in the output of
services. In 2010 H1, the number of employed in
the services sector increased while the number of
employed in production of goods continued to fall
year on year , according to estimates.
In January-September 2010, real wage grew
faster than labour productivity and stood at 5%
(in January-September 2009, it contracted by
3.5%).
In 2010, wages continued to differ signifi -
cantly in various types of economic activity. In Jan-
uary-August 2010, the highest aver age month -
ly wage was registered in the financial sector
(48,439 rubles) and the mining and quarrying
16 2010 Q3
of energy producing materials (44,048 rubles),
exceeding the national average by a factor of 2.4
and 2.2, re spectively. The lowest wage was regis-
tered in agriculture, hunting and forestry (10,167
rubles), the manufacture of textile and textile
products (9,835 rubles) and the production of
leather , leather goods and footwear (10,562 ru-
bles), representing respectively 50%, 48% and
52% of the national average. Wages below the
national average were registered in the activities
largely financed from the federal budget, such
as education, other utili ties, public and personal
services, healthcare and social services, and in the
manufacturing industries, construction, whole -
sale and retail trade, and car and household goods
repair services.
In February 2010, the total number of un-
employed began to fall and in January-September
it de clined by 9.8% to 6.6% of the economi cally
active population by the end of September (7.6%
as of the end of September of 2009).
2010 Q3 17
tively, against the US dollar but in September it
slipped against the US currency, which was largely
unrelated to fundamental factors and was mainly
attributable to the stronger demand for foreign
currency during this period amid corporate for -
eign debt payments.
The nominal ruble/euro rate decreased
by 2.3% in the quarter under review whereas in
2010 Q2 it gained 7.3%. The ruble fell against
the single European currency in each of the three
months of the quarter under review: by 2.5% in
July, by 0.3% in August and by 2.2% in Septem-
ber.
The ruble value of the bi-currency bas ket
stood at 35.4296 rubles as of October 1, 2010.
In October , the value of the operational bench -
mark demonstrated different dynamics and as of
November 1, 2010, stood at 36.1567 rubles.
The nominal effective rate of the ruble
against foreign currencies decreased by 2.5% in
July-September 2010 after its 3.8% growth in
the previous quarter. The ruble’s depreciation was
largely caused by the fall in the nominal rate of the
ruble against the euro during the quarter under
review.
The real ruble/US dollar rate rose by 0.1%
in 2010 Q3 after its decrease by the same per -
centage in the previous quarter. The real ruble/US
Exchange rate
According to preliminary data, the current
account surplus in January-September 2010
stood at $60.9 billion. A net private capital out -
flow estimated at $4.2 billion was registered in
the reporting quarter , whereas in 2010 Q2 there
was a net capital in flow of $3.1 billion. As of Oc-
tober 1, 2010, Russia’s international reserves
reached $490.1 billion, an increase of 6.3% over
July-September.
In 2010 Q3, the situation in the domes -
tic foreign exchange market remained stable,
despite short-term exchange rate volatility. The
Bank of Russia continued its policy of smoothing
fluctuations in the value of the bi-currency bas -
ket (0.55 US dollars and 0.45 euros), an opera -
tional benchmark of its exchange rate policy. As
part of its strategy aimed at improving the flex -
ibility of the exchange rate, on October 13, 2010,
the Bank of Russia widened the floating exchange
rate band from 3 rubles to 4 rubles, cancelling the
fixed quantitative limits on permissible fluctua -
tions in the ruble value of the bi-currency basket.
The nominal ruble/US dollar rate slipped
by 1.3% in 2010 Q3 (in 2010 Q2 it was down
by 1.1%). It continued to demonstrate different
dynamics in the reporting quarter. In July-August
2010, the ruble gained 1.6% and 1.1%, respec-
Monetary Conditions
18 2010 Q3
rate dynamics decreased slightly in the quarter
under review but continued to exceed the contri-
bution of the in flation differential.
The real effective rate of the ruble against
foreign currencies slipped by 1.3% in 2010 Q3
(in 2010 Q2 it gained 4.4%).
dollar rate dynamics were largely affected by the
fluctuations of the ruble/US dollar nominal rate
and domestic inflation.
The real ruble/euro rate dropped by 0.9%
in July-September after its 8.0% growth in 2010
Q2. The relative contribution of the nominal rate
of the ruble against the euro to the real ruble/euro
International foreign exchange market
The US dollar gained more than 10% against the euro in the international foreign exchange market in Janu-
ary-September 2010 (September on December 2009). After its devaluation from the end of November 2009 to
the beginning of June 2010, the euro appreciated in the subsequent period largely as a result of measures taken
by the European Union and the IMF to reduce risks connected with unstable public finance in Greece and some
other eurozone member states. The exchange rate
of the euro against the US dollar and other curren -
cies was influenced by the high rates of GDP growth
in the member countries of the European Economic
and Monetary Union in 2010 Q2.
In 2010 Q3, most world currencies appreci -
ated against the US dollar, including the Chinese
yuan (from mid-2010, China resumed the policy of
more flexible exchange rate-setting). The dollar de-
preciated against both the currencies of the coun -
tries with higher interest rates as compared with the
rates in the US financial market and the currencies
of the countries with lower interest rates (including
the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc). The dollar ex-
change rates against other currencies were affected
by the risks for the US economy connected with per-
sisting high unemployment rate. In 2010 Q3, there
were increased expectations that the Federal Reserve
would take additional measures to influence liquidity
in the banking system.
Monetary Conditions
2010 Q3 19
its operations unchanged. Despite increased infla-
tionary expectations in August-September 2010,
the risk of inflation generated by monetary factors
was moderate. The Bank of Russia considered the
current level of interest rates on its operations as
Interest rates
Taking into account the trends in economic
activity and monetary conditions, the Bank of Rus-
sia Board of Directors took decisions in 2010 Q3
to keep the refinancing rate and interest rates on
Liquidity situation and Bank of Russia operations
In July-October 2010, credit institutions placed their temporarily uncommitted funds in deposit accounts
and Bank of Russia bonds amid the significant excess of banking sector liquidity, while the volume of operations
and debt on refinancing instru ments contracted.
The Bank of Russia’s average daily liabilities to credit institutions on liquidity absorption instruments
amounted to 1.6 trillion rubles in 2010 Q3 and 1.4 trillion rubles in October (1.3 trillion rubles in the first half
of 2010). Bank of Russia bonds predominated in the structure of these liabilities in the period under review. The
Bank of Russia’s average daily claims to credit institutions on liquidity provision instru ments decreased to ap -
proximately 65 billion rubles in 2010 Q3 and 25 billion rubles in October (they stood at 310 billion rubles in the
first half of 2010).
Favourable dynamics of the major macroeco-
nomic indices and banking sector stability indica -
tors and the overall reduction of systemic risk al -
lowed the Bank of Russia to limit access for credit
institutions to un secured and long-term loans and
gradually replace them by conventional methods
of providing liquidity. For this purpose, the Bank of
Russia did not cut interest rates on unsecured loans
and tightened twice credit risk limits. The Bank of
Russia has not held 12-month repo auc tions since
March 2010 and 6-month repo auctions since April.
On April 30, it stopped holding 12-month Lombard
loan auctions and suspended the extension of loans
against ‘non-market’ assets or guarantees for a term
of 181 to 365 days. In addi tion, it suspended hold-
ing 6-month Lombard loan auctions and extending
long-term unsecured loans from October 1, 2010,
and announced it would suspend all unsecured loans
starting from January 1, 2011.
20 2010 Q3
for a term of 2-7 days fell from 3.0% p.a. in 2010
Q2 to 2.6% p.a. in 2010 Q3, the rate on 8-30-
day loans declined from 4.5% to 4.1% p.a. and
the rate on 1-3-month loans was down from
4.9% to 4.2% p.a.
In 2010 Q3, interest rates on household
de posits with all terms (from 1 month to 3 years)
continued to decline. In 2010 Q3, the average
short-term and long-term (1 year to 3 years)
ruble deposit rates fell by 1.0 percentage point
quarter on quarter to 6.0% p.a. and 6.5% p.a.,
respectively.
In 2010 Q3, the average interest rate on
ruble-denominated long-term loans to house -
holds was 18.0% p.a., a decrease of 0.4 percent-
age points from 2010 Q2. The average interest
rate on short-term loans increased by 0.8 per -
centage points to 26.8% p.a. in 2010 Q3.
Average quarterly interest rates on loans to
non-financial organisations continued to fall
in 2010 Q3. The average interest rate on short-
term loans to non-financial organisations stood at
10.0% p.a. in 2010 Q3, a drop of 1.3 percent age
points from 2010 Q2. The average interest rate
on long-term loans was down by 0.9 percentage
points to 11.4% p.a. As before, in 2010 Q3 the
most significant fall (by 1.9 percentage points) in
the average interest rate was registered on loans
with terms from 1 month to 3 months quarter on
quarter. The yield curve for loans to non-financial
organisations shifted down in 2010 Q3 compared
with 2010 Q2. The yield curve continued to rise in
the one, which ensured an acceptable balance
between major macroeconomic risks in the com -
ing months. As a result, the overnight credit rate,
which sets the upper limit of the Bank of Russia
interest rate band, remained at 7.75% p.a. in Ju-
ly-September 2010. The standard overnight de -
posit rate, which sets the lower limit of the Bank
of Russia interest rate band, stood at 2.5% p.a. in
the period under review. The lowest interest rate
at which a credit institution can receive refinanc -
ing in the Bank of Russia (at the repo auctions or
Lombard loan auctions) was 5% p.a. On October
29, 2010, the Bank of Russia Board of Directors
took a decision to continue pursuing an accom -
modative monetary policy in the coming months
to support internal factors of growth and leave the
refinancing rate and interest rates on its opera -
tions unchanged.
Average interest rates on ruble-denom inated
interbank loans with different terms to redemp-
tion continued to decline in 2010 Q3. The average
quarterly MIACR on overnight ruble loans stood at
2.6% p.a. as against 2.9% p.a. in 2010 Q2. Dur-
ing the third quarter of 2010, it ranged between
2.1% and 3.3% p.a. (in 2010 Q2, it varied be -
tween 2.3% and 3.9% p.a.). In October 2010,
MIACR on overnight ruble loans mostly increased,
fluctuating within the range of 2.4% to 3.2%
p.a. The average overnight MIACR on ruble loans
gained 0.1 percentage points in October month
on month to stand at 2.7% p.a. The in terest rate
on ruble interbank loans placed by Rus sian banks
Monetary Conditions
2010 Q3 21
the up-to-6-months and over-3-years segments
and to fall slightly in the segment of 6 months to
3 years.
OFZ market yields changed within a narrow
horizontal band in July-October 2010. As of the
end of 2010 Q3, the effective OFZ market port -
folio indicator (MPI) increased by 0.1 percentage
points quarter on quarter to 7.3% p.a. The aver -
age quarterly effective MPI fell by less than 0.1
percentage points to 7.3% p.a. Relative to the
end of September , the effective MPI at the end of
October remained un changed at 7.3% p.a. The
average effective MPI decreased by 0.1 percent -
age points in October month on month and also
stood at 7.3% p.a.
In July-October 2010, the OFZ yield curve
retained its upward sloping shape, demonstrating
slight changes in its position. By the end of Octo -
ber , the slope of the government bond yield curve
had increased slight ly as compared with July-Sep-
tember 2010.
In July-October 2010, the dynamics of yields
in the ruble re gional bond market were similar
to the dynamics of OFZ bond yields but were char-
acterised by greater volatility. Ruble corporate
bond yields continued to decline till the last week
of September , after which they changed within a
horizontal band. In 2010 Q3, the average region-
al and corporate bond yields fell by 0.5 percent -
age points and 0.7 percentage points, quarter on
22 2010 Q3
quarter , to 7.3% p.a. and 7.7% p.a., respectively.
In October , the average regional and corporate
bond yields fell by 0.1 percentage points and 0.2
percentage points, month on month, to 7.3%
p.a. and 7.4% p.a., respectively. In July-October
2010, spreads between OFZ, corporate and re -
gional bond yields continued to narrow.
Asset prices
In 2010 Q3, the Russian stock market dem -
onstrated upward trends in securities prices, al -
though they remained highly volatile. As of Sep -
tember 30, 2010, the MICEX index grew by
10.0% quarter on quarter , to 1,440.30 points
and the RTS index was up by 12.6% to 1,507.66
points. The average MICEX and RTS indices in
2010 Q3 were lower than in 2010 Q2 by 0.1%
and 1.5%, respectively.
In the third quarter of 2010, there was a
considerable rise in the prices of corporate stocks
in the key sectors of the economy. The most sig-
nificant increase in the prices of corporate stocks
in the period under review was registered in the
machine-building, chemical and petrochemical
industry, metallurgy, the electric power and con -
sumer sectors.
In October 2010, Russian stock prices con -
tinued to grow due to positive price trends in the
Monetary Conditions
2010 Q3 23
27.4%, as against 9.3% in January-September
2009. As a result, the annual rate of growth in
ruble household deposits reached 48.2% as of
October 1, 2010.
In January-September 2010, the non-finan-, the non-finan- the non-finan-
cial organisation deposits increased by 3.1% as
against 1.1% in the same period last year. The an-
nual rate of growth in ruble non-financial organi-
sation deposits was observed to decline from May
2010 and stood at 16.8% as of October 1, 2010,
as compared with 30.2% as of May 1, 2010
(14.5% at the beginning of 2010).
Monetary aggregate M0 increased by 12%
in January-September 2010, whereas in the same
period of 2009 it contracted by 8.1%. The annu-
al rate of growth in cash increased in 2010 and
stood at 29.8% as of October 1, 2010. At the
same time, seasonally-adjusted monthly rates of
growth in monetary aggregate M0 were on aver-
age lower in 2010 Q3 than in 2010 H1.
Cash dynam ics were heavily dependent on
changing public preferences with regard to for -
eign currency. In 2010 Q3, household demand
for foreign currency cash increased. Net pur -
chases of foreign currency by households through
exchange offices totalled $3.5 bil lion in July-Sep-
tember 2010 (in January-June 2010, net sales
stood at $2.4 billion). Nevertheless, according
to Russia’s balance of payments preliminary esti -
mates, the value of foreign currency cash outside
the banking system decreased by $13 billion in
January-September 2010.
world stock market. At the end of October , the
MICEX index gained 5.8% month on month and
reached 1,523.39 points and the RTS index rose
by 5.3% to 1,587.14 points. In October , corpo -
rate stock prices increased in most sectors of the
Russian economy, especially the machine-build -
ing, banking, and consumer sectors. Corporate
stock prices in telecommunications, on the con -
trary, slightly decreased as compared with the end
of September.
Monetary aggregates
Growth in money demand gradually recov -
ered in 2010 after its significant contraction dur-
ing the crisis. However , the current dynamics of
the major macroeconomic indicators make money
demand grow slower than in the pre-crisis period
so far.
The annual rates of growth in monetary ag-
gregate M2 accelerated quickly from October
2009 and reached the level of about 30% since
May 2010. The dynamics of the annualised
6-month growth rates of M2, which depend to
a lesser extent on the base effect, demonstrate
the slowing of M2 growth rates in January-Sep -
tember 2010. Seasonally-adjusted month ly rates
of growth in monetary aggregate M2 in July-
September 2010 were on average higher than in
2010 Q2.
Household deposits were the most rapidly
growing component of monetary aggregate M2.
In January-September 2010, they increased by
24 2010 Q3
ertheless, the annual rates of growth in M2X con-
tinued to accelerate from October 2009 and on
October 1, 2010, reached 22.9%. The dynam -
ics of the annualised 6-month rates of growth in
broad money M2X testify to a slight increase in
M2X growth rates in 2010 Q3.
Bank of Russia interventions in the domestic
foreign exchange market and the gradual increase
in bank lending to the real sector of the economy
(this factor played an especially important role in
money supply growth in 2010 Q2 and Q3) were
the main sources of the expansion of aggregate
money supply in January-September 2010. The
budgetary factor had a neutral effect on money
supply dynamics in the first nine months of 2010.
The significant acceleration of the rates of growth
in aggregate money supply in late 2009 and early
2010 to the level exceeding the rates of growth in
money demand suggests that the risk of inflation
may increase owing to the monetary factors at the
end of 2010 and in 2011.
Credit aggregates
Bank lending activity is an important indica -
tor characterising the impact of monetary policy
measures on the performance of the real sector
of the economy. Debt on all categories of loans,
except foreign currency loans to households,
continued to grow in 2010 Q3. The debt on ruble
loans extended to non-financial organisations in-
creased by 4.4% in the period under review and
on foreign currency loans by 5.1%. The debt on
Exchange rate dynamics had a marked effect
on the dynamics of foreign currency deposits. In
January-September 2010, their value contracted
by 5.1% in ruble terms (in dollar terms, this con-
traction was more significant). The largest con -
traction was registered in the first half of 2010
whereas in the second half the downward trend
in the value of foreign currency deposits came to
a halt. The level of dollarisation of deposits con -
tinued to shrink in January-September 2010 and
as of October 1, 2010, it fell to 16.8% as against
22.1% as of the same date a year earlier.
The dynamics of foreign currency deposits
led to the lower annual rates of growth in mon -
etary aggregate M2X as compared with M2. Nev-
Monetary Conditions
2010 Q3 25
Low interest rates and the high level of li -
quidity registered in the money market are among
major factors contributing to lending activity re -
covery. In addition, the continued growth of the
deposit base of banks, which leads to the expan -
sion of their liabilities, results in the correspond -
ing increase in bank assets. Until recently, these
were largely liquid risk-free assets, such as foreign
assets and also Russian Government and Bank of
Russia obligations. However , banks’ net foreign
assets started to contract from March 2010 and
in August the annual growth of net foreign assets
in the banking system was negative for the first
time since 2008. At the same time, banks’ in -
vestment in Russian Government obligations and
ruble loans extended to households expanded
by 6.6% whereas the household debt on foreign
currency loans contracted by 4.5%. As a result,
the annual rate of growth in to tal debt on loans
stood at 7.1% as of October 1, 2010.
Despite relatively low annual growth rates,
credit aggregates demonstrated sufficiently fast
growth in recent months. In particular , season -
ally-adjusted 6-month rates of growth in debt
on loans in September 2010 came close to 20%
on an annualised basis (3-month growth rates
reached this mark already in June). At the same
time, these trends are not yet stable while the
banking intermediation system has not recovered
in full.
26 2010 Q3
Bank of Russia bonds remained considerable. It is
likely that as banks restore their confidence in the
prospects of the real sector of the economy, they
will gradually give up low-yield money market as-
sets in favour of the expansion of lending to the
non-financial sector.
Apart from the persisting risks for banks, an-
other factor containing growth in lending activity
was low demand for loans. At present this factor
can also be regarded as the main cause restrain -
ing faster growth in lending. At the same time, as
aggregate demand recovers, lending activity also
increases gradually. The demand for loans can be
expected to grow further , if positive trends con -
tinue in the real sector of the economy.
Therefore, the negative trends developing in
credit markets in the past 18 months weakened
in the third quarter of 2010, which resulted pri -
marily in the growth of debts on loans. It can be
presumed that growth in credit aggregates will
accelerate in the near future.
2010 Q3 27
Bank of Russia press releases on monetary policy
measures in 2010 Q3
July 2010
July 1
The Bank of Russia External and Public Relations Department reports that as part of the work to grad-
ually exit from anti-crisis measures, the Bank of Russia Board of Directors made a decision to suspend auc-
tions to extend unsecured loans to credit institutions for a term of over five weeks starting from October 1,
2010, and for all terms starting from January 1, 2011.
The mechanism to extend unsecured loans was introduced by the Bank of Russia during the most
acute phase of the crisis (in the fourth quarter of 2008) and together with the Bank of Russia’s other mea-
sures helped overcome the systemic shortage of liquidity in the banking sector. The debt of credit institu-
tions on unsecured loans over the period of their extension by the Bank of Russia dropped from the peak
level of 1,924 billion rubles in mid-February 2009 to 50.3 billion rubles as of July 1, 2010. Now that the
situation in the domestic financial market has stabilised and, in particular , the situation with banking sector
liquidity has come to normal, the demand for this refinancing instrument has declined sharply.
Therefore, the Bank of Russia’s decision to halt the mechanism of extending unsecured loans will not
have an adverse impact on the banking sector as a whole and will not create any additional risk for the
sustainability of credit institutions.
The Bank of Russia reserves the right to use this instrument as and when necessary.
July 15
The Bank of Russia External and Public Relations Department reports that the Bank of Russia will cease
from October 1, 2010, repo operations with non-government securities (except for Bank of Russia bonds
and securities denominated in foreign currency) in the MICEX trading system. The Bank of Russia will
strike repo deals with these securities only in compliance with Bank of Russia Regulation No. 329-P , dated
November 28, 2008, ‘On the Terms and Conditions of Repo Operations Conducted by the Bank of Russia
with Russian Credit Institutions on the Stock Exchange’.
July 30
The Bank of Russia External and Public Relations Department reports that the Bank of Russia Board
of Directors made a decision on July 30, 2010, to leave the refinancing rate and interest rates on Bank of
Russia operations unchanged.
The Bank of Russia made this decision taking into consideration persisting major trends in the dynam-
ics of economic activity indicators and the state of the monetary sphere.
In June-July 2010, inflation continued to slow down and its annual rate stood at 5.7% as of July 26.
The risk of inflation estimated by the Bank of Russia for the coming months does not currently give any
grounds for reviewing monetary policy parameters.
Positive trends were registered in the dynamics of Russia’s key macroeconomic indicators. A consider-
able decrease in the unemployment rate was registered in June again. Along with the continued growth in
28 2010 Q3
real wages, this factor creates conditions for the further resumption of domestic demand. Taking into ac-
count that the unemployment rate has reached the pre-crisis level by now, its further decrease may signal
a return of the economy to the sustainable growth trajectory.
The continued dynamic growth of fixed capital investment and retail trade turnover in June and the
further expansion of bank lending to the economy were the major signs of economic recovery. At the same
time, the volume of consumer lending remains below the pre-crisis level while the volume of household
deposits continues to grow. These trends testify to the persisting potential for domestic demand to grow
as a result of the lower public propensity for savings and higher credit activity, which will be facilitated by
the Bank of Russia’s current monetary policy.
In June, the situation in the domestic financial markets remained stable while the intensity of cross-
border capital flows was relatively low. In these conditions, there were no marked trends in the ruble’s
exchange rate dynamics while the risks of its fall or rise were counterbalanced. The volume of the Bank of
Russia’s operations in the domestic foreign exchange market remained moderate and contributed to the
stabilisation of money supply growth.
Provided that the current macroeconomic trends persist, the Bank of Russia considers the existing
level of the refinancing rate and interest rates on its deposit operations as one that ensures for the next few
months an acceptable balance between the accessibility of borrowings and inflationary risks conditioned
by monetary factors.
The next meeting of the Bank of Russia Board of Directors to consider interest rate policy is scheduled
for August 2010.
August 2010
August 31
The Bank of Russia External and Public Relations Department reports that the Bank of Russia Board of
Directors made a decision on August 31, 2010, to leave the refinancing rate and interest rates on Bank of
Russia operations unchanged.
After the continued period of inflation decline, consumer price growth accelerated in August amid
increased inflationary expectations conditioned by diverse estimates of the impact of abnormal weather
conditions on agricultural output and the rise of grain prices in the world market. As a result, annualised
inflation rose from 5.5% in July 2010 to 5.9% as of August 23. However , the Bank of Russia does not
currently see any sufficient grounds for the conclusion that the above-mentioned price shocks will have
a negative effect on inflation in the medium- or long-term perspective. The Bank of Russia will continue
monitoring the impact of these factors on inflation processes.
The data on major macroeconomic indicators suggest that the risks for sustainable growth still per -
sist in the Russian economy. After major economic indicators registered a considerable improvement in
2010 Q2, economic recovery slowed down in July, which was evidenced by the change of the industrial
production index, investment dynamics and some deterioration of employment indices. At the same time,
interest rates on bank loans to non-financial organisations continued to fall in July. This process was facili-
tated by the Bank of Russia’s accommodative monetary policy. Besides, the trend towards the revival of
consumer activity continued.
The signs of unstable economic growth recovery were registered not only in Russia but also in the
world’s leading economies.
Taking into account the above trends, and also the persisting moderate inflationary risks conditioned
by monetary factors, the Bank of Russia considers it possible to maintain its current monetary policy pa -
rameters in the next few months to further increase bank lending and help the economy reach the trajec-
tory of sustainable growth.
The next meeting of the Bank of Russia Board of Directors to consider interest rate policy is scheduled
for September 2010.
Bank of Russia press releases on monetary policy measures
2010 Q3 29
September 2010
September 8
The Bank of Russia External and Public Relations Department reports that under the agreement with
the National Foreign Exchange Association (NFEA), the Bank of Russia will calculate from September 8,
2010, the daily Ruble Overnight Index Average (RUONIA), a benchmark rate in the Russian interbank
market measuring the value of unsecured borrowings by banks with minimum credit risks.
The RUONIA rate shall be calculated using the methodology developed by the NFEA jointly with the
Bank of Russia, on the basis of deposit transactions between RUONIA member banks. The information
required for RUONIA calculation shall be submitted pursuant to report form No. 0409701 ‘Report on For-
eign Exchange and Money Market Operations’ in compliance with Bank of Russia Ordinance No. 2332-U,
dated November 12, 2009, ‘On the List and Forms of and the Procedure for Compiling and Presenting
Credit Institution Reports to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation’.
The list of RUONIA member banks shall be drawn up by the NFEA and comprise 31 credit institutions.
The Bank of Russia shall submit to the NFEA the data for the RUONIA rate publication no later than 5
p.m. Moscow time on the following business day and post this information on its official website.
More detailed information on the RUONIA rate is available on the website 
September 13
The Bank of Russia External and Public Relations Department reports that for the purpose of bringing
the parameters of the Bank of Russia refinancing instruments into compliance with its monetary policy
goals, the Bank of Russia shall stop setting daily limits on funds provided in currency swap operations from
September 10, 2010.
September 21 (extract from the press release)
The Bank of Russia External and Public Relations Department reports that pursuant to the decision
taken by the Bank of Russia Monetary Policy Committee (minutes No. 12 of September 9, 2010), the
Bank of Russia shall suspend auctions to extend 6-month loans from October 1, 2010.
September 28
The Bank of Russia External and Public Relations Department reports that on September 28, 2010,
the Bank of Russia Board of Directors made a decision to leave the refinancing rate and interest rates on
Bank of Russia operations unchanged.
The decision was made taking into consideration the trends in the dynamics of key macroeconomic
indicators and the situation in the domestic financial market.
As of September 20, 2010, inflation stood at 6.7% on a year-on-year basis, which represents an
increase of 0.6 percentage points as compared with the previous month. In September , increased infla -
tionary expectations prompted by the effects of unfavourable weather conditions of the previous period,
continued to exert pressure on the level of prices for some groups of foodstuffs. At the same time, the Bank
of Russia still believes that inflationary risks conditioned by monetary factors are at an acceptable level, and
will continue monitoring the impact of various factors on inflationary processes.
Certain production and investment indicators improved in August as compared with the previous
month, although the signs of unstable economic growth still persisted.
The employment rate was unchanged, creating conditions for a further rebound of domestic demand
with account taken of the continued growth in household real money income.
The dynamics of bank lending activity also remained positive: the volume of lending to the economy
continued to grow in August while interest rates on loans extended to the real sector of the economy had
come close to the pre-crisis level. At the same time, the increased uncertainty about developments in for-
30 2010 Q3
eign markets created additional risks for the sustainable growth of the Russian economy, prompting the
need for the Bank of Russia to maintain its accommodative monetary policy to support internal factors of
growth.
Taking into account the above trends, the Bank of Russia believes that the current parameters of its
interest rate policy ensure an acceptable balance between major macroeconomic risks.
The next meeting of the Bank of Russia Board of Directors to consider interest rate policy is scheduled
for October 2010.
2010 Q3 31
Statistical Addendum
Table 1
Consumer prices by group of goods and services
(month on month, %)
Monthly
inflation
Core
inflation
Food price
growth
Food price
growth 1
Vegetable
and fruit price
growth
Non-food
price growth
Growth in non-
food prices,
excluding petrol
prices 2
Service price
growth
January 2.3 1.1 1.9 1.2 8.3 0.6 0.6 5.4
February 1.2 1.0 1.7 1.3 5.1 0.6 0.6 1.4
March 1.2 1.1 2.0 1.5 5.9 0.7 0.7 0.6
April 1.4 1.3 2.2 1.8 5.5 0.9 0.7 1.0
May 1.4 1.1 2.1 1.5 6.4 0.8 0.6 1.0
June 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.7 0.5 1.1
July 0.5 0.8 0.1 1.0 -6.7 0.7 0.5 0.9
August 0.4 1.0 -0.2 1.2 -11.3 0.6 0.6 0.9
September 0.8 1.4 0.7 1.5 -6.4 0.7 0.8 1.0
October 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.8 -0.4 0.8 1.0 0.0
November 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.9 0.7
December 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.7 0.1 0.6 1.0
Full year (December on December) 13.3 13.6 16.5 17.5 7.7 8.0 8.4 13.3
January 2.4 1.3 1.4 1.1 4.7 0.7 1.0 6.3
February 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.5 4.9 1.6 1.8 1.4
March 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.4 4.5 1.4 1.6 0.6
April 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 -0.1 1.0 1.1 0.3
May 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.3 4.1 0.7 0.8 0.3
June 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.1 3.9 0.8 0.3 0.5
July 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.2 3.2 0.6 0.2 0.8
August 0.0 0.5 -0.9 0.4 -11.0 0.6 0.4 0.4
September 0.0 0.5 -0.8 0.4 -11.5 0.7 0.6 0.1
October 0.0 0.3 -0.5 0.0 -6.1 0.6 0.7 -0.1
November 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.1
December 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 3.0 0.2 0.3 0.5
Full year (December on December) 8.8 8.3 6.1 6.9 -1.7 9.7 9.8 11.6
January 1.6 0.5 1.4 0.8 7.2 0.2 0.3 3.9
February 0.9 0.5 1.3 0.8 5.6 0.3 0.3 1.0
March 0.6 0.5 1.0 0.7 4.2 0.4 0.4 0.4
April 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.2
May 0.5 0.1 0.7 -0.1 7.2 0.4 0.3 0.4
June 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.0 4.6 0.2 0.2 0.4
July 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 -0.6 0.3 0.2 0.6
August 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 -1.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
September 0.8 1.1 1.6 1.8 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.0
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Bank of Russia estimate.
Note. T ables 1 to 7 are based on Rosstat data and Bank of Russia calculations.
32 2010 Q3
Table 2
Consumer prices by group of goods and services
(since start of year on accrual basis, %)
Monthly
inflation
Core
inflation
Food price
growth
Food price
growth 1
Vegetable
and fruit price
growth
Non-food
price growth
Growth in non-
food prices,
excluding petrol
prices 2
Service price
growth
January 2.3 1.1 1.9 1.2 8.3 0.6 0.6 5.4
February 3.5 2.1 3.6 2.5 13.9 1.2 1.2 6.8
March 4.8 3.2 5.7 4.0 20.6 2.0 1.9 7.5
April 6.3 4.5 8.0 5.9 27.2 2.9 2.6 8.5
May 7.7 5.7 10.2 7.5 35.4 3.7 3.2 9.6
June 8.7 6.7 11.4 8.7 36.0 4.4 3.7 10.8
July 9.3 7.6 11.5 9.8 26.9 5.2 4.2 11.9
August 9.7 8.6 11.3 11.2 12.5 5.8 4.9 12.9
September 10.6 10.1 12.1 12.9 5.3 6.5 5.7 14.1
October 11.6 11.5 13.9 14.9 4.8 7.3 6.8 14.1
November 12.5 12.7 15.3 16.3 5.9 7.8 7.8 14.8
December 13.3 13.6 16.5 17.5 7.7 8.0 8.4 13.3
January 2.4 1.3 1.4 1.1 4.7 0.7 1.0 6.3
February 4.1 2.9 3.3 2.6 9.8 2.3 2.8 7.8
March 5.4 4.3 5.0 4.0 14.7 3.8 4.5 8.5
April 6.2 5.2 5.8 4.8 14.6 4.8 5.7 8.7
May 6.8 5.7 6.5 5.1 19.3 5.5 6.5 9.1
June 7.4 6.0 7.0 5.2 24.0 6.3 6.9 9.6
July 8.1 6.3 7.6 5.4 28.0 7.0 7.1 10.5
August 8.1 6.8 6.6 5.8 14.0 7.6 7.6 10.9
September 8.1 7.3 5.8 6.3 0.8 8.3 8.2 11.0
October 8.1 7.6 5.2 6.3 -5.4 9.0 9.0 10.9
November 8.4 8.0 5.5 6.5 -4.5 9.4 9.4 11.1
December 8.8 8.3 6.1 6.9 -1.7 9.7 9.8 11.6
January 1.6 0.5 1.4 0.8 7.2 0.2 0.3 3.9
February 2.5 1.0 2.7 1.6 13.2 0.5 0.6 5.0
March 3.2 1.5 3.8 2.3 18.0 0.9 1.0 5.4
April 3.5 1.7 4.1 2.5 19.3 1.3 1.3 5.6
May 4.0 1.8 4.8 2.4 27.9 1.7 1.7 6.0
June 4.4 2.0 5.4 2.4 33.8 1.9 1.9 6.4
July 4.8 2.4 5.7 2.8 32.9 2.2 2.1 7.0
August 5.4 3.1 6.6 4.1 31.0 2.5 2.5 7.3
September 6.2 4.3 8.4 5.9 31.3 3.1 3.1 7.4
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Bank of Russia estimate.
Statistical Addendum
2010 Q3 33
Table 3
Consumer prices by group of goods and services
(month on corresponding month of previous year, %)
Monthly
inflation
Core
inflation 1
Food price
growth
Food price
growth 2
Vegetable
and fruit price
growth
Non-food
price growth
Growth in non-
food prices,
excluding petrol
prices 1
Service price
growth
January 12.6 11.5 16.7 15.7 27.2 6.8 6.6 14.1
February 12.7 12.1 17.6 16.5 29.1 7.0 6.8 12.7
March 13.3 12.7 19.1 17.6 32.6 7.4 7.1 12.7
April 14.3 13.5 20.8 19.1 35.6 8.0 7.4 13.3
May 15.1 14.5 22.1 20.8 33.9 8.4 7.7 13.9
June 15.1 15.1 21.3 21.7 19.9 8.9 7.9 14.4
July 14.7 15.0 19.8 21.2 9.8 9.2 8.0 14.7
August 15.0 14.8 20.2 20.8 16.1 9.2 8.1 15.2
September 15.0 14.5 19.9 20.0 19.0 9.1 8.1 15.9
October 14.2 13.7 17.9 18.0 17.5 9.1 8.2 15.7
November 13.8 13.7 17.2 17.7 11.9 8.6 8.4 15.8
December 13.3 13.6 16.5 17.5 7.7 8.0 8.4 13.3
January 13.4 13.9 15.9 17.3 4.1 8.1 8.9 16.9
February 13.9 14.6 16.1 17.6 3.8 9.2 10.2 17.0
March 14.0 14.9 15.8 17.4 2.5 9.9 11.2 17.0
April 13.2 14.4 14.1 16.3 -3.0 10.0 11.7 16.2
May 12.3 13.6 12.5 14.9 -5.1 9.9 11.9 15.4
June 11.9 12.9 11.9 13.7 -1.8 9.9 11.7 14.6
July 12.0 12.3 12.4 12.7 8.7 9.8 11.4 14.5
August 11.6 11.7 11.6 11.8 9.1 9.9 11.2 13.9
September 10.7 10.8 9.9 10.6 3.2 9.9 11.0 12.8
October 9.7 9.6 7.6 8.7 -2.8 9.6 10.6 12.7
November 9.1 8.8 6.6 7.6 -2.9 9.6 10.0 12.1
December 8.8 8.3 6.1 6.9 -1.7 9.7 9.8 11.6
January 8.0 7.5 6.1 6.6 0.7 9.1 9.0 9.1
February 7.2 6.3 5.5 5.8 1.4 7.7 7.4 8.7
March 6.5 5.4 4.8 5.1 1.1 6.6 6.1 8.4
April 6.0 4.8 4.4 4.5 2.4 5.9 5.2 8.4
May 6.0 4.4 4.4 4.1 5.4 5.7 4.8 8.4
June 5.8 4.3 4.5 4.0 6.1 5.1 4.6 8.4
July 5.5 4.4 4.2 4.2 2.1 4.7 4.6 8.1
August 6.1 4.7 6.1 5.1 13.1 4.5 4.5 8.0
September 7.0 5.3 8.7 6.5 28.0 4.4 4.6 8.0
1 Bank of Russia estimate.
2 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
34 2010 Q3
Table 4
Inflation growth over period since start of year due to price changes
by group of goods and services (percentage points)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food
products
Paid
services
Vegetables and
fruit
Inflation over
period, %
Core
inflation
Non-core
inflation 2
January 0.4 0.2 1.3 0.3 2.3 0.8 1.5
February 0.9 0.4 1.7 0.5 3.5 1.6 1.9
March 1.4 0.7 1.9 0.8 4.8 2.5 2.3
April 2.1 1.0 2.1 1.0 6.3 3.6 2.7
May 2.6 1.3 2.4 1.4 7.7 4.5 3.2
June 3.1 1.6 2.7 1.4 8.7 5.3 3.5
July 3.5 1.9 3.0 1.0 9.3 6.0 3.3
August 3.9 2.1 3.2 0.5 9.7 6.8 2.9
September 4.5 2.3 3.5 0.2 10.6 8.0 2.6
October 5.2 2.6 3.5 0.2 11.6 9.2 2.4
November 5.7 2.8 3.7 0.2 12.5 10.1 2.4
December 6.2 2.9 4.0 0.3 13.3 10.8 2.5
January 0.4 0.3 1.6 0.2 2.4 1.0 1.4
February 0.9 0.9 2.0 0.4 4.1 2.4 1.7
March 1.4 1.4 2.1 0.5 5.4 3.5 2.0
April 1.6 1.8 2.2 0.5 6.2 4.2 2.0
May 1.8 2.1 2.3 0.7 6.8 4.6 2.2
June 1.8 2.4 2.4 0.9 7.4 4.8 2.6
July 1.9 2.6 2.6 1.0 8.1 5.1 3.0
August 2.0 2.9 2.7 0.5 8.1 5.5 2.6
September 2.1 3.1 2.8 0.0 8.1 5.9 2.1
October 2.1 3.4 2.7 -0.2 8.1 6.1 1.9
November 2.2 3.5 2.8 -0.2 8.4 6.4 1.9
December 2.4 3.6 2.9 -0.1 8.8 6.7 2.1
January 0.3 0.1 1.0 0.3 1.6 0.4 1.2
February 0.6 0.2 1.3 0.5 2.5 0.8 1.7
March 0.8 0.3 1.4 0.6 3.2 1.2 2.0
April 0.9 0.5 1.4 0.7 3.5 1.4 2.1
May 0.8 0.6 1.5 1.0 4.0 1.5 2.5
June 0.8 0.7 1.7 1.2 4.4 1.6 2.8
July 1.0 0.8 1.8 1.2 4.8 1.9 2.8
August 1.4 0.9 1.9 1.1 5.4 2.5 2.8
September 2.0 1.1 1.9 1.1 6.2 3.5 2.8
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
Statistical Addendum
2010 Q3 35
Table 5
Monthly inflation growth due to price changes
by group of goods and services (percentage points)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food
products
Paid
services
Vegetables
and fruit
Inflation over
period, %
Core
inflation
Non-core
inflation 2
January 0.4 0.2 1.3 0.3 2.3 0.8 1.5
February 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 1.2 0.8 0.4
March 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 1.2 0.8 0.3
April 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 1.4 1.0 0.4
May 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.4 0.9 0.5
June 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.0 0.7 0.2
July 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.3 0.5 0.7 -0.1
August 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.5 0.4 0.8 -0.4
September 0.5 0.2 0.3 -0.3 0.8 1.1 -0.3
October 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.9 1.1 -0.2
November 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.0
December 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1
January 0.4 0.3 1.6 0.2 2.4 1.0 1.4
February 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.7 1.3 0.3
March 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 1.3 1.1 0.2
April 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.0
May 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2
June 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.4
July 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.4
August 3 0.0
September 3 0.0
October 3 0.0
November 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0
December 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1
January 0.3 0.1 1.0 0.3 1.6 0.4 1.2
February 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.5
March 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.3
April 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1
May 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.4
June 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3
July 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.1
August 0.4 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0
September 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.9 -0.1
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
3 Owing to zero inflation in August-October 2009, estimates may vary.
36 2010 Q3
Table 6
Contribution to inflation growth over period since start of year
by group of goods and services (%)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food products Paid services Vegetables and fruit Core inflation Non-core inflation 2
January 18.9 9.3 58.1 13.7 36.2 63.8
February 25.1 12.1 47.9 14.9 46.1 53.9
March 29.7 14.7 39.0 16.6 52.7 47.3
April 33.0 16.5 33.9 16.6 57.0 43.0
May 34.2 17.1 31.1 17.6 58.5 41.5
June 35.2 18.2 30.8 15.7 60.5 39.5
July 37.3 19.9 31.7 11.1 64.4 35.6
August 40.6 21.4 33.0 5.0 70.5 29.5
September 43.0 22.0 33.1 1.9 75.7 24.3
October 45.3 22.9 30.2 1.6 79.2 20.8
November 46.0 22.6 29.6 1.8 80.8 19.2
December 46.4 21.6 29.8 2.2 81.5 18.5
January 15.6 11.3 66.2 7.0 42.3 57.7
February 22.1 21.5 47.9 8.6 57.7 42.3
March 25.3 26.1 38.9 9.7 64.0 36.0
April 26.7 29.3 35.5 8.5 67.9 32.1
May 25.9 30.5 33.4 10.2 67.5 32.5
June 24.1 31.9 32.4 11.6 65.0 35.0
July 23.0 32.3 32.3 12.4 62.6 37.4
August 24.7 35.3 33.8 6.2 67.6 32.4
September 26.7 38.7 34.2 0.4 73.3 26.7
October 26.6 41.9 33.8 -2.4 76.3 23.7
November 26.7 42.2 33.0 -1.9 76.7 23.3
December 26.7 41.0 33.0 -0.7 76.4 23.6
January 17.3 4.7 61.6 16.3 25.6 74.4
February 22.2 7.3 51.4 19.1 31.6 68.4
March 25.2 10.4 43.9 20.6 37.4 62.6
April 25.0 13.2 41.7 20.2 39.8 60.2
May 20.9 15.3 38.5 25.3 37.2 62.8
June 19.0 15.8 37.5 27.7 37.2 62.8
July 20.5 16.6 38.0 24.9 40.4 59.6
August 26.4 17.3 35.4 20.9 47.1 52.9
September 32.9 18.3 30.6 18.2 55.5 44.5
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
Statistical Addendum
2010 Q3 37
Table 7
Contribution to monthly inflation growth
by group of goods and services (%)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food products Paid services Vegetables and fruit Core inflation Non-core inflation 2
January 18.9 9.3 58.1 13.7 36.2 63.8
February 36.8 17.4 28.5 17.3 64.9 35.1
March 43.2 22.6 12.8 21.4 72.2 27.8
April 43.5 22.0 17.6 16.9 70.3 29.7
May 39.1 20.1 18.9 21.9 65.2 34.8
June 42.7 26.5 28.7 2.2 74.5 25.5
July 69.6 47.5 45.8 -62.9 125.6 -25.6
August 122.9 59.3 67.5 -149.7 225.0 -125.0
September 69.7 29.4 34.5 -33.6 136.6 -36.6
October 69.5 32.2 -0.1 -1.7 116.9 -16.9
November 54.4 19.8 21.2 4.7 100.5 -0.5
December 50.8 5.9 34.3 8.9 91.7 8.3
January 15.6 11.3 66.2 7.0 42.3 57.7
February 31.2 35.9 22.0 10.9 79.5 20.5
March 35.2 40.0 11.7 13.1 83.0 17.0
April 37.5 53.9 9.3 -0.7 97.1 2.9
May 17.1 42.5 13.3 27.1 62.6 37.4
June 5.7 46.9 20.7 26.8 38.4 61.6
July 10.8 35.8 31.6 21.8 35.3 64.7
August 3
September 3
October 3
November 28.1 49.3 12.4 10.2 87.7 12.3
December 27.2 18.3 31.2 23.4 70.2 29.8
January 17.3 4.7 61.6 16.3 25.6 74.4
February 30.6 11.7 33.6 24.1 42.2 57.8
March 36.4 22.1 15.4 26.0 59.6 40.4
April 23.4 42.8 18.0 15.8 65.3 34.7
May -5.6 29.1 18.0 58.5 20.5 79.5
June 0.9 20.8 28.1 50.2 36.6 63.4
July 38.7 26.1 43.8 -8.5 79.6 20.4
August 75.8 22.8 13.2 -11.8 102.9 -2.9
September 72.6 25.0 1.4 1.0 107.1 -7.1
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
3 Owing to zero inflation in August-October 2009, estimates may vary.
38 2010 Q3
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Macroeconomic indicators
GDP
over period since start of year, billion rubles
2008 8,902 19,158 30,744 41,429
2009 8,403 17,692 28,204 39,101
2010 9,873 20,733
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2008 109.1 … … 105.2
2009 90.7 89.8 90.4 92.1
2010 103.1 104.2
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2008 109.1 107.7 106.4 98.9
2009 90.7 89.0 91.4 97.1
2010 103.1 105.2
Industrial output indices
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2008 106.0 104.3 101.9 90.9
2009 84.5 86.4 90.4 101.8
2010 109.5 110.9 106.4
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2008 106.0 105.2 104.1 100.6
2009 84.5 85.5 87.1 90.7
2010 109.5 110.2 108.9
Agricultural output
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2008 105.5 106.9 113.0 111.3
2009 102.2 100.7 98.9 105.1
2010 103.6 102.3 81.4
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2008 105.5 … … 110.8
2009 102.2 101.3 100.0 101.4
2010 103.6 102.9 89.3
Fixed capital investment
over period since start of year, billion rubles
2008 1,314.6 3,306.1 5,675.1 8,781.6
2009 1,234.5 2,915.9 4,966.1 7,930.3
2010 1,262.6 3,174.1 5,566.2
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2008 123.4 117.6 112.3 98.7
2009 82.7 77.2 81.8 90.6
2010 95.9 105.3 107.3
Retail trade turnover
over period since start of year, billion rubles
2008 2,952.8 6,278.9 9,936.9 13,920.7
2009 3,324.0 6,836.9 10,530.1 14,602.5
2010 3,621.1 7,546.0 11,737.0
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2008 117.2 114.9 115.0 108.7
2009 100.4 94.9 91.4 94.5
2010 101.7 105.3 105.9
Federal budget on accrual
basis, as of end of period
revenue
billion rubles
2008 1,932.7 4,370.7 7,155.7 9,275.9
2009 1,732.7 3,172.2 5,114.4 7,337.8
2010 1,954.9 3,997.9 6,008.6
as % of GDP
2008 21.7 22.8 23.3 22.4
2009 20.6 17.9 18.1 18.8
2010 19.8 19.3 18.41
expenditure
billion rubles
2008 1,332.7 2,995.6 4,594.2 7,570.9
2009 1,762.4 3,893.8 6,441.7 9,660.1
2010 2,199.5 4,386.2 6,701.2
as % of GDP
2008 15.0 15.6 14.9 18.3
2009 21.0 22.0 22.8 24.7
2010 22.3 21.2 20.51
surplus(+)/
deficit(-)
billion rubles
2008 600.0 1,375.1 2,561.5 1,705.1
2009 -29.7 -721.7 -1,327.2 -2,322.3
2010 -244.6 -388.3 -692.6
as % of GDP
2008 6.7 7.2 8.3 4.1
2009 -0.4 -4.1 -4.7 -5.9
2010 -2.5 -1.9 -2.11
General government budget
on accrual basis, as of end
of period
revenue
billion rubles
2008 3,334.2 7,543.7 12,178.9 16,169.1
2009 3,033.5 6,042.7 9,555.0 13,599.7
2010 3,463.1 7,603.5 11,419.4
as % of GDP
2008 37.5 39.4 39.6 39.0
2009 36.1 34.2 33.9 34.8
2010 35.1 36.7 35.01
expenditure
billion rubles
2008 2,335.9 5,515.5 8,741.5 14,157.0
2009 2,807.1 6,619.7 10,503.9 16,048.3
2010 3,220.7 7,331.2 11,309.8
as % of GDP
2008 26.2 28.8 28.4 34.2
2009 33.4 37.4 37.2 41.0
2010 32.6 35.4 34.61
surplus(+)/
deficit(-)
billion rubles
2008 998.4 2,028.1 3,437.4 2,012.1
2009 226.4 -577.0 -948.9 -2,448.6
2010 242.4 272.3 109.7
as % of GDP
2008 11.2 10.6 11.2 4.9
2009 2.7 -3.3 -3.4 -6.3
2010 2.5 1.3 0.31
Table 8
Russia’s key macroeconomic and financial indicators
Note. T able 8 is based on data compiled by the Bank of Russia, the Federal State Statistics Service, the Ministry of Finance of the
Russian Federation and the Federal Treasury.
Statistical Addendum
2010 Q3 39
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Socio-economic indicators
Nominal imputed average
monthly per employee wage
rubles
2008 15,424 16,962 17,556 18,966
2009 17,441 18,419 18,673 20,670
2010 19,485 20,809 21,148
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2008 128.0 129.2 129.0 119.5
2009 112.8 108.0 105.7 108.4
2010 110.5 112.4 112.2
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2008 128.0 … … 127.2
2009 112.8 110.3 108.6 107.8
2010 110.5 111.5 111.7
Real imputed average monthly per employee wage, as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2008 113.4 112.5 112.2 105.0
2009 99.2 96.1 94.8 99.3
2010 103.1 106.1 105.7
Household money income (per capita monthly average), rubles
2008 12,278.1 14,828.4 15,662.4 16,973.9
2009 14,002.1 16,983.8 16,696.2 19,859.4
2010 15,942.7 18,531.8 18,424.0
Household real disposable
money income
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2008 107.8 106.1 104.9 93.7
2009 100.7 103.4 96.6 108.2
2010 107.4 103.2 104.2
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2008 107.8 … … 102.3
2009 100.7 102.1 100.0 102.3
2010 107.4 105.1 104.8
Household spending, as % of
income
purchase of goods and services
2008 77.1 71.8 74.4 73.7
2009 76.3 66.8 70.8 64.8
2010 73.0 68.0 72.3
compulsory payments and contributions
2008 12.1 12.4 12.6 12.0
2009 11.3 10.3 10.9 10.3
2010 9.6 10.0 10.6
growth in savings
2008 8.3 7.1 4.6 2.2
2009 8.7 17.0 12.8 17.7
2010 15.9 15.4 11.7
purchase of foreign currency
2008 6.9 4.7 5.7 13.6
2009 10.3 3.5 6.0 3.5
2010 3.2 3.2 4.3
cash on hand
2008 -4.4 4.0 2.7 -1.5
2009 -6.6 2.4 -0.5 3.7
2010 -1.7 3.4 1.1
Average imputed pension, total, rubles
2008 3,823 4,044 4,383 4,545
2009 4,614 5,151 5,330 5,670
2010 7,126 7,580 7,596
Real imputed pension
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2008 119.0 113.9 122.7 116.9
2009 106.1 113.3 109.1 114.2
2010 144.1 138.9 134.3
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2008 119.0 … … 118.1
2009 106.1 109.8 109.5 110.7
2010 144.1 141.3 138.8
Total number of unemployed
(calculated using ILO
methodology)
million
2008 5.1 4.3 4.4 5.4
2009 6.8 6.5 6.0 6.1
2010 6.6 5.6 5.2
as % of economically active population
2008 6.7 5.6 5.9 7.1
2009 9.1 8.6 7.8 8.0
2010 8.8 7.4 6.8
Table 8 (continued)
40 2010 Q3
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Foreign economic activity indicators
Price of Urals crude
over period since start of year, $/barrel
2008 93.7 105.3 107.6 93.9
2009 43.2 50.5 56.3 60.7
2010 75.0 75.8 75.8
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2008 173.7 176.3 168.2 135.1
2009 46.1 48.0 52.3 64.6
2010 173.7 150.1 134.7
Exports of goods
over period since start of year, $ billion
2008 110.1 236.8 373.6 471.6
2009 57.3 125.4 207.8 303.4
2010 92.3 189.8 286.52
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2008 153.6 152.4 152.5 133.1
2009 52.0 52.9 55.6 64.3
2010 161.1 151.4 137.82
Imports of goods
over period since start of year, $ billion
2008 60.2 135.7 218.6 291.9
2009 38.5 82.4 131.5 191.8
2010 45.7 103.9 172.02
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2008 140.8 142.0 142.0 130.6
2009 63.9 60.7 60.1 65.7
2010 118.7 126.1 130.82
Current account balance (over period since start of year), $ billion
2008 38.7 65.6 95.1 103.7
2009 9.7 17.9 33.3 49.4
2010 33.5 52.2 60.92
Private sector net capital outflow (inflow) (over period since start of year), $ billion
2008 -24.4 15.7 -3.6 -133.9
2009 -35.0 -31.6 -65.5 -56.9
2010 -14.9 -11.8 -16.02
Foreign investment in Russia’s non-financial sector
(Rosstat data)
over period since start of year, $ billion
2008 17.3 46.5 75.8 103.8
2009 12.0 32.2 54.7 81.9
2010 13.1 30.4 47.5
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2008 70.1 77.1 86.2 85.8
2009 69.7 69.1 72.2 79.0
2010 109.3 94.5 86.8
of which:
direct
over period since start of year, $ billion
2008 5.6 11.1 19.2 27.0
2009 3.2 6.1 10.0 15.9
2010 2.6 5.4 8.2
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2008 57.2 70.0 97.7 97.2
2009 57.0 55.0 51.9 58.9
2010 82.4 89.0 82.2
portfolio
over period since start of year, $ billion
2008 0.1 1.2 1.3 1.4
2009 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.9
2010 0.3 0.7 0.9
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2008 62.5 104.4 83.7 33.7
2009 93.5 74.9 78.6 62.3
2010 2.5 times 81.1 85.0
other
over period since start of year, $ billion
2008 11.5 34.3 55.3 75.3
2009 8.7 25.2 43.7 65.1
2010 10.2 24.3 38.4
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2008 78.7 79.0 82.8 84.7
2009 75.6 73.5 79.1 86.5
2010 117.1 96.2 87.8
Russia’s international reserves (as of end of period), $ billion
2008 512.6 569.0 556.8 426.3
2009 383.8 412.5 413.4 439.5
2010 447.4 461.2 490.1
Real ruble exchange rate indices (last month of
quarter), growth as % of December of previous
year 3
ruble vs. US dollar
2008 6.5 8.5 3.2 -1.1
2009 -15.4 -5.0 -3.9 -0.4
2010 3.6 -0.7 2.0
ruble vs. euro
2008 0.6 3.4 6.2 5.0
2009 -12.0 -7.0 -9.0 -6.5
2010 11.7 18.6 14.5
effective rate
2008 1.5 3.3 3.0 4.3
2009 -10.0 -4.2 -5.6 -3.9
2010 7.4 9.7 6.8
Table 8 (continued)
Statistical Addendum
2010 Q3 41
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Financial market indicators (including Sberbank interest rates)
Average for period
Overnight interbank credit
rate, % p.a.
in rubles
2008 3.9 4.1 6.0 8.6
2009 11.6 7.7 7.1 5.5
2010 4.2 3.1 2.6
in US dollars
2008 3.2 2.2 2.2 0.7
2009 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
2010 0.2 0.3 0.3
OFZ yields, % p.a. 4
2008 6.7 6.9 7.5 8.7
2009 10.5 10.3 10.6 9.1
2010 7.9 7.4 7.3
Interest rate on household
time deposits, % p.a.
up to 1 year in rubles
2008 7.0 7.1 7.5 9.0
2009 10.0 10.8 10.7 10.2
2010 8.5 7.1 6.0
over 1 year in rubles
2008 7.4 8.0 8.5 9.1
2009 10.0 10.3 9.3 9.2
2010 7.7 6.2 5.3
up to 1 year in US dollars
2008 5.1 5.8 5.3 6.5
2009 6.0 5.3 5.5 5.2
2010 4.3 3.7 3.6
over 1 year in US dollars
2008 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.8
2009 6.5 6.1 5.7 5.5
2010 4.9 4.8 4.4
Interest rate on credit to non-
financial organisations, % p.a.
up to 1 year in rubles
2008 10.9 11.2 12.0 14.9
2009 16.6 15.8 14.9 13.9
2010 12.8 11.4 10.0
over 1 year in rubles
2008 12.3 12.8 13.6 13.8
2009 15.1 16.2 15.8 14.7
2010 13.9 12.3 11.4
up to 1 year in US dollars
2008 8.1 8.0 8.9 10.9
2009 10.7 10.1 10.0 9.3
2010 8.3 7.5 6.9
over 1 year in US dollars
2008 9.3 9.9 9.4 11.3
2009 12.7 11.6 10.7 9.0
2010 10.3 8.8 7.4
Interest rate on ruble-denominated promissory notes discounted by banks, % p.a. 2008 10.7 11.0 12.1 14.1
2009 15.7 14.3 14.0 11.8
Interest rate on ruble-denominated promissory notes issued by non-financial organisations and discounted
by credit institutions, % p.a. 5 2010 14.1 11.6 10.8
Interest rate on ruble-denominated promissory notes issued by credit institutions and discounted
by credit institutions, % p.a. 5 2010 9.3 7.8 7.4
MICEX rate in «tomorrow» trades, ruble/US dollar
2008 24.2286 23.6190 24.2718 27.2941
2009 34.4761 32.2032 31.3160 29.4737
2010 29.8318 30.2891 30.6072
As of end of quarter
RTS index, points
2008 2,053.93 2,303.34 1,211.84 631.89
2009 689.63 987.02 1,254.52 1,444.61
2010 1,572.48 1,339.35 1,507.66
Refinance rate, % p.a.
2008 10.25 10.75 11.00 13.00
2009 13.00 11.50 10.00 8.75
2010 8.25 7.75 7.75
Table 8 (continued)
42 2010 Q3
Table 8 (end)
Year 1.01 1.04 1.07 1.10
Monetary indicators
M0, billion rubles
2008 3,702.2 3,475.5 3,724.9 3,904.2
2009 3,794.8 3,278.3 3,522.5 3,485.6
2010 4,038.1 3,986.1 4,367.7 4,524.5
M2, billion rubles
2008 13,272.1 13,382.9 14,244.7 14,374.6
2009 13,493.2 12,111.7 13,161.0 13,649.5
2010 15,697.7 15,996.5 17,190.3 17,909.2
Broad money, billion rubles
2008 14,636.7 14,918.3 15,926.6 16,067.8
2009 16,774.7 16,308.4 17,055.4 17,523.4
2010 19,520.1 19,652.8 20,841.3 21,537.8
Net foreign assets, billion rubles
2008 9,914.1 10,535.2 11,274.3 12,284.5
2009 12,191.4 12,881.1 13,043.1 13,232.1
2010 13,922.9 13,765.6 14,734.2 15,041.7
Domestic claims, billion rubles
2008 8,325.9 8,437.2 8,760.6 8,614.9
2009 10,645.1 10,307.4 11,076.4 11,716.8
2010 13,345.8 13,474.8 14,306.0 15,183.2
Broad monetary base, billion rubles
2008 5,513.3 4,871.4 5,422.9 5,317.8
2009 5,578.7 4,298.8 4,967.6 4,803.7
2010 6,467.3 6,363.9 7,195.0 7,126.0
Balances of correspondent accounts, billion rubles
2008 802.2 596.3 592.4 702.9
2009 1,027.6 431.7 471.4 545.4
2010 900.3 579.5 603.6 590.0
Monetisation of the economy (by M2 aggregate), %
2008 31.9 32.8 32.9 32.7
2009 32.9 32.7 33.1 33.5
2010 33.8 34.4 35.5 36.6 1
Money multiplier
by broad monetary base
2008 2.41 2.75 2.63 2.70
2009 2.42 2.82 2.65 2.84
2010 2.43 2.51 2.39 2.51
change since start of year, %
2008 10.36 14.1 9.1 12.3
2009 0.56 16.5 9.5 17.5
2010 0.46 3.6 -1.6 3.5
Foreign exchange rates
rubles per US dollar
2008 24.55 23.50 23.41 25.37
2009 29.39 33.90 31.04 30.01
2010 30.19 29.50 31.26 30.51
rubles per euro
2008 35.93 37.09 36.97 36.50
2009 41.43 44.89 43.85 43.89
2010 43.46 39.57 38.21 41.44
1 Preliminary data.
2 Estimate.
3 (+) signifies appreciation of the ruble, (-) signifies depreciation of the ruble.
4 OFZ effective market portfolio indicator.
5 Owing to the coming into force of Bank of Russia Instruction No. 2332-U of November 12, 2009, the set of indicators used to characterise credit institutions’ interest rate policy on the
promissory note market changed from January 2010. Specifically, the single yield indicator for the promissory notes discounted by banks has been replaced by two indicators: the yield
indicator for promissory notes issued by credit institutions and the yield indicator for promissory notes issued by non-financial organisations. The indicators are calculated only for operations
with ruble-denominated promissory notes.
6 Relative to beginning of previous year.
Statistical Addendum
2010 Q3 43
Table 9
Bank of Russia interest rates in January-October 2010 (% p.a.)
Instrument Liquidity provision/
absorption period
From
1.01.10 to
23.02.10
From
24.02.10 to
28.03.10
From
29.03.10 to
29.04.10
From
30.04.10 to
31.05.10
From
1.06.10
Providing liquidity at offered bids (including by auction)
Repo operations 1
1 day 6.00 5.75 5.50 5.25 5.00
7 days 6.00 5.75 5.50 5.25 5.00
3 months 7.50 7.25 7.00 6.75 6.50
6 months 8.00 7.75 7.50 7.25 7.00
1 year 8.50 8.25 8.00 7.75 7.50
Currency swap operations 2 1 day 8.75 8.50 8.25 8.00 7.75
Unsecured loans up to 1 year Minimum rate is set when auction is announced
Lombard loans 1, 3
7 days 5.25 5.00
14 days 6.00 5.75 5.50
3 months 7.50 7.25 7.00 6.75 6.50
6 months 8.00 7.75 7.50 7.25 7.00
1 year 8.50 8.25 8.00 7.75 7.50
Providing liquidity at fixed rates
Overnight loans 3, 4 1 day 8.75 8.50 8.25 8.00 7.75
Lombard loans 3
1 day 7.75 7.50 7.25 7.00 6.75
7 days 7.75 7.50 7.25 7.00 6.75
30 days 7.75 7.50 7.25 7.00 6.75
Repo operations
1 day 7.75 7.50 7.25 7.00 6.75
7 days 7.75 7.50 7.25 7.00 6.75
1 year 8.50 8.25 8.00 7.75 7.50
Loans secured by «non-market» assets
or guarantees 4
up to 90 days 7.75 7.50 7.25 7.00 6.75
91 to 180 days 8.25 8.00 7.75 7.50 7.25
181 to 365 days 8.50 8.25 8.00 7.75 7.50
Absorbing liquidity at fixed rates
Deposit operations
Overnight 2.75 2.50 2.50
Tom-next, spot-next and demand 3.50 3.25 3.00 2.75 2.50
1 week, spot-week 4.00 3.75 3.50 3.25 2.75
1 Minimum interest rate set by the Bank of Russia Board of Directors.
2 Interest rate set on the ruble part when determining the minimum offered swap difference.
3 Pursuant to Bank of Russia Regulation No. 236-P of August 4, 2003.
4 Pursuant to Bank of Russia Regulation No. 312-P of November 12, 2007.
44 2010 Q3
Table 10
Credit institutions’ required reserve ratios (from July 1, 2007 to October 31, 2009, %)
Required reserve ratio for bank obligations
to non-resident banks in Russian
and foreign currency
Required reserve ratio for obligations
to individuals in Russian currency
Required reserve ratio for other bank
obligations in Russian and foreign currency
July 1, 2007—October 10, 2007 4.5 4.0 4.5
October 11, 2007—January 14, 2008 3.5 3.0 3.5
January 15, 2008—February 29, 2008 4.5 4.0 4.5
March 1, 2008—June 30, 2008 5.5 4.5 5.0
July 1, 2008—August 31, 2008 7.0 5.0 5.5
September 1, 2008—September 17, 2008 8.5 5.5 6.0
September 18, 2008—October 14, 2008 4.5 1.5 2.0
October 15, 2008—April 30, 2009 0.5 0.5 0.5
May 1, 2009—May 31, 2009 1.0 1.0 1.0
June 1, 2009—June 30, 2009 1.5 1.5 1.5
July 1, 2009—July 31, 2009 2.0 2.0 2.0
August 1, 2009—October 31, 2009 2.5 2.5 2.5
Table 11
Credit institutions’ required reserve ratios
(from November 1, 2009 up to present, %)
Required reserve ratio for
obligations to non-resident
corporates in Russian
currency
Required reserve ratio for
obligations to non-resident
corporates in foreign
currency
Required reserve ratio for
obligations to individuals
in Russian currency
Required reserve ratio for
obligations to individuals
in foreign currency
Required reserve ratio for
other bank obligations
in Russian currency
Required reserve ratio for
other bank obligations
in foreign currency
November 1, 2009— 2.5
© The Central Bank of the Russian Federation, 2011
Research and Information Department