NBP MPC Press Release - 2016-04-06
Central bank: nbp | Type: decision | Date: 2016-04-06

1/2 
Warsaw, 6 April 2016 
Information from the meeting of the Monetary Policy 
Council held on 5-6 April 2016 
 
The Council decided to keep the NBP interest rates unchanged at: 
 reference rate at 1.50%; 
 lombard rate at 2.50%; 
 deposit rate at 0.50%; 
 rediscount rate at 1.75%. 
 
Global economic growth remains moderate, amid continuing heightened uncertainty 
about its outlook. Uncertainty regards, above all, the scale of economic slowdown in the 
emerging economies and its translation into lower activity in the advanced economies. 
In the euro area, economic recovery continues. Moderate growth is expected to 
continue in the coming quarters, although the slowdown in the emerging economies has 
a negative impact on the region's economic outlook. In the United States, after a slightly 
weaker GDP growth in the second half of 2015, economic conditions are still relatively 
good. Instead, economic slowdown in China continues, while Russia and Brazil are still 
in recession. 
Prices of oil and many other commodities in the global markets – despite some 
increase in the last two months – are still markedly lower than a year ago. Low 
commodity prices, combined with moderate global economic activity, are the main factor 
behind very low consumer price growth in many economies. In some economies – 
including in the euro area – price growth is negative. 
Against this background, the European Central Bank eased its monetary policy in 
March, lowering interest rates and increasi ng the scale of quantitative easing. At the 
same time, the Federal Reserve – after increasing interest rates in December – is keeping 
rates unchanged, while indicating a possible interest rate rise in the coming quarters. 
The decisions of the major central banks and the increase in oil prices have recently 
led to some improvement in global financial market sentiment and an increase in asset 
prices, including stock prices and exchange rates of emerging economies. 
In Poland, stable economic growth continues, although the data on industrial 
production and construction output signal that GDP growth in 2016 Q1 might have been 
slightly lower than in the previous quarter. Stable consumption growth and rising 
investment c ontinue to support economic growth. The rise in consumer demand is 
driven by steady growth in employment and improving consumer sentiment. Growth in 
investment is supported by sound financial standing of enterprises, their high capacity 
utilization and the relatively favourable prospects for demand. This is accompanied by 
 
 
2/2 
stable lending growth. At the same time, economic growth is hampered by weakening 
external demand. 
As the output gap remains negative and average nominal wage growth is moderate, 
currently there is no inflationary pressure in the economy. Annual consumer price 
growth and producer price growth remain negative. However, external factors – 
particularly the earlier sharp fall in global commodity prices and low price growth in the 
environment of the Polish economy – continue to be the main reason for deflation. This 
is accompanied by very low inflation expectations. The persisting deflation has not 
adversely affected decisions of economic agents so far. 
In the Council’s assessment, price growth w ill stay negative in the coming quarters 
due to the earlier fall in global commodity prices. At the same time, it will be 
accompanied by stable economic growth, including an expected rise in consumer 
demand growth driven by rising employment, forecasted ac celeration of wage growth 
and an increase in social benefits. This notwithstanding, the downside risks to the global 
economic conditions and the volatility of commodity prices remain the sources of 
uncertainty for the domestic economy and price developments. 
The Council continues to assess that – given the available data and forecasts – the 
current level of interest rates is conducive to keeping the Polish economy on the 
sustainable growth path and maintaining macroeconomic balance.