CBR Quarterly Inflation Review - Q3 2009
Central bank: cbr | Type: quarterly_review | Date: 2009-09-30

THE CENTRAL BANK
OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
(BANK OF RUSSIA)
Quarterly
Inflation
Review
2009 Q3
Research and Information Department
The electronic version of Quarterly Inflation Review is available on the Bank of Russia's website :
 .ru/publ/.
Contents
Introduction..................................................................................................................3
Inflation.Dynamics.........................................................................................................4
Consumer prices .......................................................................................................................4
Housing prices ..........................................................................................................................6
Producer prices .........................................................................................................................6
Foreign trade ............................................................................................................................8
Demand .................................................................................................................................11
Supply ....................................................................................................................................14
Labour market .........................................................................................................................14
Monetary.Conditions...................................................................................................16
Exchange rate .........................................................................................................................16
Interest rates ..........................................................................................................................18
Asset prices ............................................................................................................................21
Monetary aggregates ...............................................................................................................23
Credit aggregates ....................................................................................................................25
Statistical.Addendum..................................................................................................27
2009 Q3 3
Introduction
Since the end of 2008, the world economic
and financial crisis and adverse developments it
provoked in the Russian economy have been key
factors of inflation. The 1st quarter of this year saw
consumer prices rise at rapid rates, as the cost
of consumer imports increased as a result of the
devaluation of the national currency , accelera -
tion of producer prices in the mining sector , the
contraction of supply in the Russian economy and
the deterioration of the financial situation of Rus-
sian enterprises. In the 2nd quarter , inflation began
to slow down as consumer and especially inves -
tor demand sagged, the effect of the devaluation
gradually petered out and the ruble started to ap-
preciate. In August-October 2009, the consumer
price index stood at 100%, mostly owing to the
low rate of food price growth.
The principal task for the Bank of Russia in
the current situation is to maintain banking sec -
tor and financial market stability and create condi-
tions conducive to greater business activities.
Slower growth of consumer prices, the need
to stimulate bank lending activities and the stabi-
lisation of the situation on the domestic foreign
exchange market allowed the Bank of Russia to
ease its monetary policy in April. In the 2 nd and
3rd quarters, the sustained macroeconomic trends
and the monetary situation enabled the Bank of
Russia to cut interest rates more significantly. It
used its monetary policy instruments to stimulate
the economy by cutting the cost of credit while
keeping the banks sufficiently supplied with li -
quidity and prevent the inflow of short-term capi-
tal and the sharp appreciation of the ruble. From
July to October , the Bank of Russia gradually cut
interest rates on credit and deposit operations
and repo operations. Over that period, the Bank
of Russia interest rate band moved down by 3.5
percentage points.
Growing liquidity in the banking sector and
the ruble’s appreciation had an impact on the
dynamics of interbank market short-term rates
and the rates on credit to the real sector . The level
and volatility of interbank credit market interest
rates declined, just as interest rates on bank loans
and deposits for non-financial organisations and
households (the only exception was short-term
interest rates on loans to households).
However , credit activities remained low. The
annual rate of growth in debt on credit to non-
financial organisations and households in rubles
and foreign currency slowed from 45.7% as of
October 1, 2008, to 1.8% year on year . Moreover ,
debt only grew on long-term ruble-denominated
loans to non-financial organisations, mostly as a
result of the measures taken by the Government
and Bank of Russia to support the banking system
and the real economy.
The prolonged slowing of growth in mon -
etary and credit aggregates reduced the mon -
etary pressure on inflation this year . This factor
and the end of the devaluation effect on prices,
lower interest rates and the ruble’s appreciation
allow one to assume that inflation will continue to
slow in the first half of 2010. However , as the an-
nual rates of growth in the monetary aggregates
stopped slowing in 2009 Q2 and the current and
forthcoming budget policy and monetary condi -
tions eased significantly , one cannot rule out the
possibility of the acceleration of consumer price
growth by the end of 2010.
4 2009 Q3
Inflation Dynamics
Consumer prices
According to the Federal State Statistics Ser -
vice, consumer prices rose 8.1% in the first nine
months of the year . This represents a decrease of
2.5 percentage points from the same period last
year . In September 2009, consumer price growth
was 10.7% compared to September 2008 and in
January-September it was 12.5% year on year .
The slowing of inflation in the nine months
of the year was largely the result of slower growth
in the prices of food products and unregulated
services. At the same time, growth in non-food
prices accelerated, as compared with January-
September 2008.
Core inflation slowed to 7.3% in the nine
months of the year as against 10.1% in the same
period of 2008. The rise in the prices of goods
and services included in the core inflation calcula-
tion accounted for an estimated 5.9 percentage
points, or 73.3%, of inflation (as against 8.0 per-
centage points, or 75.7% in 2008).
In the nine months of the year , food prices
exclusive of fruit and vegetable prices went
up 6.3% as against 12.9% in January-September
2008. Growth in the prices of this group of food
products accounted for an estimated 2.1 percent-
age points, or 26.7%, of inflation (as against 4.5
percentage points, or 43.0%, in the same period
of 2008).
Consumer price inflation (%)
Growth (September 2009
on December 2008)
Growth (September2008
on December 2007)
Prices of goods and services, total: 8.1 10.6 Slowing of growth by 2.5 percentage points
of which:
– food prices 5.8 12.1 Slowing of growth by 6.3 percentage points
– food prices, excluding vegetable and fruit prices 6.3 12.9 Slowing of growth by 6.6 percentage points
– non-food prices 8.3 6.5 Acceleration of growth by 1.8 percentage points
– prices of paid services provided to households 11.0 14.1 Slowing of growth by 3.1 percentage points
Prices of goods and services included in core inflation calculation 7.3 10.1 Slowing of growth by 2.8 percentage points
Source: Rosstat.
Inflation Dynamics
2009 Q3 5
As regards food prices, the most significant
increase in the nine months of the year was reg -
istered in the prices of granulated sugar (50.6%
as against 12.1% in the same period last year)
and fish and seafood (13.5% as against 7.5%).
Growth in the prices of grain, cereals, legumes,
meat and poultry ranged between 1.9% and
5.7%, a significant decrease from January-Sep -
tember 2008. Prices of milk and dairy products,
butter and vegetable oil declined in the range of
from 0.1% to 18.2% (January-September 2008
saw the prices of these products rise). Egg prices
were down 16.9% as against 6.4% in the same
period a year earlier .
Sugar prices grew rapidly on the world mar -
ket throughout the nine months of the year and
last August they reached the highs registered in
2006. Compared to December 2008, the price of
raw sugar increased by 2.2 times last September
and the price of refined sugar by 1.8 times (a year
earlier these prices rose 22.5% and 27.3% re -
spectively).
World grain prices showed a tendency to -
wards decline in 2009 Q3 after their relative sta-sta-
bilisation in the period from 2008 Q4 to 2009
Q2. As a result, compared to December 2008,
in September 2009, the price of US wheat fell
13.3% and Canadian wheat 20.2% and the price
of US maize was down 5.0% and Canadian bar -
ley 10.2% (in September 2008, wheat prices de-
clined 19.8% and 21.5% respectively , Canadian
barley was down 4.7%, whereas US maize was
up 29.7%). The price of Thai rice last Septem -
ber was by 2.5% lower than in December 2008
(in September 2008, it was 89.6% higher).
The world meat markets demonstrated dif -
ferent dynamics in 2009. The price of beef rose
10.1% last September , as compared with Decem-
ber 2008, whereas pork and poultry fell 5.0%
and 2.4% respectively (in September 2008,
these prices were up 35.4%, 33.6% and 15.0%
respectively).
After growth in the first half of the year , veg-
etable oil prices were down on world markets in
the 3rd quarter . As a result, last September the price
of palm oil was up 34.0% on December 2008
(in September 2008, it was down 18.8%).
Fruit and vegetable prices rose 0.8% in
January-September 2009 (as against 5.3% in the
same period last year). This represents the most
significant slowing for the period in four years. Es-
timates show that the rise in fruit and vegetable
prices had little effect on the general level of con-
sumer prices. In the same period of 2008, growth
in fruit and vegetable prices accounted for 0.2
percentage points of inflation (1.9% of the over-
all increase in consumer prices).
Overall food prices rose 5.8% in January-
September 2009 as against 12.1% in the same
period last year .
Non-food prices went up 8.3% over that
period as against 6.5% in the nine months of
2008. This growth accounted for an estimated
3.1 percentage points, or 38.7%, of inflation (this
Food price inflation (%)
Growth (September 2009
on December 2008)
Growth (September 2008
on December 2007)
Food products 5.8 12.1 Slowing of growth by 6.3 percentage points
Bread and bakery products 2.1 24.5 Slowing of growth by 22.4 percentage points
Cereals and legumes 1.9 27.5 Slowing of growth by 25.6 percentage points
Pasta 3.4 31.3 Slowing of growth by 27.9 percentage points
Meat and poultry 5.7 15.6 Slowing of growth by 9.9 percentage points
Fish and seafood 13.5 7.5 Acceleration of growth by 6.0 percentage points
Milk and dairy products -0.8 7.8 …
Butter -0.1 7.0 …
Sunflower oil -18.2 27.9 …
Granulated sugar 50.6 12.1 Acceleration of growth by 38.5 percentage points
Vegetables and fruit 0.8 5.3 Slowing of growth by 4.5 percentage points
Alcoholic beverages 7.7 8.1 Slowing of growth by 0.4 percentage points
Source: Rosstat.
6 2009 Q3
compares with 2.3 percentage points and 22.0%
in the same period last year). The most significant
increases were registered in the prices of tobacco
products (17.0% as against 11.9% in January-
September 2008), medicines (16.2% as against
9.6%) and detergents and cleaning products
(11.5% as against 12.0%). Petrol prices were up
10.5%, whereas a year earlier they rose 18.6%.
Prices of paid services provided to house-
holds increased 11.0% in the nine months of the
year as against 14.1% in the same period last
year . The growth accounted for an estimated 2.8
percentage points, or 34.2% of overall consumer
price increase (this compares with 3.5 percentage
points and 33.1% in the same period last year).
Growth in administered service prices acceler-
ated by 0.6 percentage points to 14.0%. Housing
and utilities prices rose 18.6% as against 15.5%
in the first nine months of 2008. Passenger trans-
port fares were up 6.7% as against 21.2% a year
earlier .
The first nine months of the year saw the
slowing of growth in the prices of all major types
of services included in the calculation of the core
consumer price index. This was particularly ap -
parent in healthcare, pre-school tuition, educa -
tion and personal services.
The rise in paid service prices in January-Sep-
tember 2009 exceeded overall commodity price
growth by 3.9 percentage points (as against 4.7
percentage points in the same period last year).
According to Rosstat data, in the nine months
of the year , consumer price growth slowed in all
federal districts, as compared with the same pe-
riod in 2008. Estimates show that in September
there were significant differences between the
Russian regions in terms of the cost of the fixed
set of goods and services used by Rosstat for in -
terregional purchasing power comparisons. Spe -
cifically , the regional difference ratio1 that month
registered 42.4% as against 40.0% in December
2008.
As for the regional differences in the rates of
growth in food prices, they varied within the rela-
tively narrow range of from 4.8% to 7.7% (in De-
cember 2008, they ranged between 10.9% and
14.1%). The rates of growth in non-food prices
ranged from 7.6% to 9.6% (6.0%-7.9% in Jan-
uary-September 2008). In the nine months of the
year , all federal districts registered the slowing of
growth in paid service prices, as compared with
the same period last year .
Housing prices
Housing prices fell 7.1% on the primary mar-
ket and 9.8% on the secondary market in Sep -
tember 2009 as compared with December 2008.
In the same period last year , housing prices rose
10.9% on the primary market and 16.6% on the
secondary one.
In the nine months of the year , housing pric-
es were affected by the contraction of demand
amid the financial and economic crisis. This is
confirmed, among other things, by the reduction
by 0.6% in the floor space built in that period, as
compared with the same period in 2008 (in the
first nine months of 2008, housing construction
increased 3.8%, as compared with the same pe -
riod a year earlier).
Producer prices
Industrial producer prices rose 14.9% in
January-September 2009 as against 17.6% in
the same period last year . Rapid growth in produc-
er prices was principally the result of the accelera-
tion of their increase in the mining sector . Over the
1 The regional difference ratio is calculated by the Bank of
Russia as the difference between the cost of a fixed set of
goods and services in the most and least expensive regions
relative to the national average cost of the set.
Inflation Dynamics
2009 Q3 7
nine months of the year , these prices rose 53.5%,
whereas in the same period of 2008 they grew
11.7%. In the fuel and energy sector , producer
prices went up 67.4% and 11.6% respectively.
Price growth in the production and distribu -
tion of electricity , gas and water quickened by 2.4
percentage points to 18.0% in January-Septem -
ber 2009, as compared with the same period last
year .
Producer prices in the manufacturing sec -
tor gained 6.5% in the nine months of the year
as against 19.6% in the same period of 2008.
The most significant price increase (37.2%) was
registered in the production of petroleum prod -
ucts (this compares with 14.0% in the same pe -
riod last year). Meanwhile, there was a slowing
of growth in consumer goods producer prices.
Producer price growth in the production of food -
stuffs, including beverages, and tobacco products
declined by 6.9 percentage points to 6.0%; pro -
ducer prices in the textile and clothing industry
slowed by 3.0 percentage points to 5.8% and in
the production of leather , leather goods and foot-
wear producer price growth declined by 2.6 per -
centage points to 4.5%.
Freight charges slipped 0.9% in January-
September 2009, whereas railway fares rose
10.6%. In the same period of 2008, these prices
increased 36.0% and 22.1% respectively.
8 2009 Q3
Communications fees for corporates
edged up 2.0% in the nine months of the year as
against 11.4% in the same period last year .
Producer prices for building materials fell
0.2% in January-September 2009, whereas in
the same period of 2008 they rose 15.8%.
Agricultural producer prices fell 3.7% in
January-September 2009, whereas in the same
period last year they grew 1.6%. Crop grower
prices went down 6.2% (in January-September
2008, they rose 7.7%). Specifically , grain pro -
ducer prices fell 5.3% and sunflower producer
prices were down 2.3% (in January-September
2008, these prices increased 9.1% and 17.4%
respectively). Livestock producer prices declined
2.0% as against 2.7% in the same period last
year . Cattle and poultry producer prices rose 7.7%
(as against 9.2% in January-September 2008),
whereas milk producer prices slumped 14.8%
and egg producer prices plummeted 18.1% (this
compares with 13.9% and 11.5% in the same
period last year).
Foreign trade
The price situation on the world markets
for major Russian export commodities 2 in the 3 rd
quarter was better than in the 2nd but it was worse
than in 2008 Q3, because of the sharp fall in
the prices of oil, petroleum products, metals and
other raw materials in the second half of last year .
Energy prices rose 8.7% on average in 2009 Q3
quarter on quarter and non-energy prices gained
6.1%; compared to 2008 Q3, they declined by
44% and 31% respectively.
World oil prices resumed their growth this
year after the fall in the second half of 2008. The
average price of oil3 on the world market increased
2 verage prices are based on data provided daily by the fol verage prices are based on data provided daily by the fol 
lowing news agencies and exchanges: Reuters for oil, Petrole 
um rgus for petroleum products (petrol, diesel fuel and fuel
oil) and the London Metal Exchange for non ferrous metals
(aluminium, copper and nickel). Ferrous metal price indices
and data on average monthly prices of natural gas and other
commodities are published by the World Bank and IMF .
3 The average price of three brands of crude Brent, Dubai
and West T exas Intermediate (WTI).
Inflation in countries trading with Russia1
Inflation in the countries accounting for a substantial portion of Russian imports slowed from 4.7% in
January September 2008 to 2.3% in the same period last year (September against December of the previ 
ous year). The major contributor to the reduction of inflation was Ukraine. In Japan, consumer prices declined,
whereas in Germany , they remained unchanged on
December 2008. Most of the other countries saw
price growth slow down.
Slower inflation in foreign countries was the
result of the fall in food prices, especially in the 3 rd
quarter . Energy prices mostly demonstrated a down 
ward trend, but it differed from country to country ,
depending on other factors, including exchange rate
dynamics. In the 2 nd quarter, higher oil prices accel 
erated inflation in the countries trading with Russia,
but in the 3rd quarter, when oil prices fluctuated with 
out demonstrating an obvious upward trend, most
of the countries, except China, Japan and South Ko 
rea, where price dynamics was affected by the rise in
business activity , registered disinflation. The relatively
sustained factor of inflation in the industrialised na 
tions was growth in the prices of goods and services
included in the ‘basic’ set of goods in the consumer
goods baskets (which does not include energy and
food products). Core inflation slowed more or less,
depending on the depth of the economic recession
(in the eurozone more than in the United States).
1 ccording to data reported by national statistical agencies of Russia’s trading partners.
Inflation Dynamics
2009 Q3 9
70% in September 2009 as compared with De -
cember 2008; Urals was up 80%. On August 24,
the price of Urals crude hit the high of nearly $74
per barrel.
The rise in oil prices in January-September
2009 resulted from the world economic situation
and the expectations of an end to the financial
and economic crisis. Data indicating that several
leading economies had begun to emerge from
the crisis and sustained economic growth in China
contributed to growth in world demand for oil.
In addition, oil prices were affected by the dol -
lar exchange rate dynamics, because the dollar’s
depreciation against other major world currencies
led to the rise in the prices of the dollar-priced ex-
change commodities and the movement of a part
of speculative capital from the currency market
to the commodity market. In addition, the OPEC
countries complied with the oil production quotas
set in 2008. Traditional factors such as the geopo-
litical situation and weather had a negligent and
short-term effect on the price of oil.
As a result, in 2009 Q3, the price of Urals
crude rose 17.2% quarter on quarter and reached
$67.8 per barrel. However , this represents a de-
crease of 39.7% from 2008 Q3.
Compared to January-September 2008, the
price of Russian oil on the world market was down
47.7% at $56.3 per barrel (in January-Septem -
ber 2008, it was up 68.2% on the same period a
year earlier).
The petroleum products market demonstrat-
ed the same trends as the oil market, but the rates
of growth in the prices of the various petroleum
products were different. In the 3 rd quarter , for
example, the price of fuel oil increased the most
quarter on quarter (by 25%), whereas diesel fuel
was up 15% and petrol 11%. Over the first nine
months of the year , petroleum product prices, just
as oil prices, were on average twice as low as in
the same period of 2008. The biggest fall was
registered in the price of diesel fuel (by 52%) in
that period (in the same period a year earlier , it
rose 75%). The price of petrol was down 43%
and fuel oil 40% (in January-September 2008,
the prices of these petroleum products rose 42%
and 73% respectively).
The fall in natural gas prices in Europe, which
had begun late in 2008, continued until last Au -
gust. That month natural gas prices started to rise
again but at a slow pace (in the United States, the
natural gas price downturn continued until Sep -
tember). In 2009 Q3, natural gas prices in Europe
fell 15.6% quarter on quarter (in the previous
two quarters, they were down 24.2% and 31.5%
respectively). Relative to 2008 Q3, they declined
52.8%. In January-September 2009, the price
of natural gas in Europe was down 28.6% on
the same period last year (in January-September
2008, it rose 52.5% as compared with the same
period a year earlier).
The world coal market is showing a tendency
towards growth in prices this year , but the rise is
small. Over the nine months of the year , the price
of coal was down 49.5% on the same period of
2008 (in January-September 2008, it was by
130% higher than in the same period a year ear-
lier).
The main factor of the price fall on the world
ferrous metals market, which began in Septem -
ber 2008, was the recession-related slowing of
growth in demand. Another contributing fac -
tor was the fall in the prices of raw materials for
the production of ferrous metals (the world price
of iron ore was down 28.2% in 2009 4 year on
year , whereas in 2008 it rose 66.0%). In the nine
months of the year , ferrous metal prices were by
17.3% lower than in the same period last year (in
January-September 2008, they were by 58.1%
higher).
4 Iron ore prices on the world market are set for a year .
10 2009 Q3
The world non-ferrous metals market in Jan-
uary-September 2009 saw aluminium, copper
and nickel prices mostly rise, but they were con -
siderably lower than in the same period last year .
The main reasons for the price increase were the
gradual recovery of world industrial demand for
non-ferrous metals, especially in China, the re -
duction of world aluminium production, the ex -
pansion of government nickel stocks in China and
the rise in investor demand for these metals. In
January-September 2009, the price of aluminium
fell 45.0%, as compared with the same period last
year , copper was down 41.5% and nickel 44.0%
(in January-September 2008, the price of alu -
minium rose 4.5% and copper 12.3%, whereas
nickel was down 38.3%).
The prices of other raw materials exported by
Russia were also affected by the global economic
situation and the state of the world commod -
ity markets. In January-September 2009, prices
of mineral fertilizer , chemical raw materials and
some other products were lower than in the same
period last year by almost one-third.
Food and agricultural raw material prices 5
were different on world markets during the first
nine months of the year . Sugar prices grew rapid-
ly , meat and vegetable oil prices mostly increased,
while grain prices mostly declined.
5 verage sugar prices have been calculated on the basis of
data provided daily by the London Commodity Exchange,
while other prices are the monthly averages published by the
World Bank and IMF .
The main factor of growth in sugar prices on
the world market was bad harvests in Brazil and
India, the global leading producers of sugar . As
a result, its world stocks contracted significantly ,
India emerged on the market as a net importer ,
exports from Brazil are expected to fall on the
previous year’s level, while domestic demand for
ethanol in that country keeps growing.
The fall in grain prices continued in 2009 Q3
after their slight rise in Q2. In the 2009/2010 ag-
ricultural year , global wheat production is expected
to fall, but experts believe that the level of wheat
stocks in the major producing countries (Argen -
tina, Australia, the EU, Kazakhstan, Canada, Rus-
Inflation Dynamics
2009 Q3 11
sia, the United States and Ukraine) will remain
high. The main reason is the fall in world demand
as compared with its record in the 2008/2009
agricultural year .
The world rice market saw prices fall for the
most part in 2009. The price downturn was pro -
voked by the same developments as the fall in
other grain prices, but the decline in rice prices
was slow as Thailand, the world leading exporter ,
reduced exports.
Livestock producer prices stabilised amid the
world crisis, as the deteriorated economic situa -
tion of the major meat consumers slowed growth
in demand, fodder prices dropped and energy
and fuel prices fell from the previous year’s level.
Beef and pork prices in January-September 2009
were lower than in the same period last year , while
poultry prices picked up slightly. However , beef
prices kept rising throughout 2009 as the cattle
population declined, while beef consumption re -
mained high in China, India, South America and
South East Asia.
The fall in world market prices of Russian
exports significantly deteriorated the terms 6 of
Russia’s trade with other countries in January-
September 2009, although by the end of the year
the decline of the terms of trade index has begun
gradually to slow down.
6 The ratio between export and import price indices.
In the nine months of the year , the trade sur-
plus7 contracted by 2.1 times, as compared with
the same period last year , and stood at $74.8 bil-
lion. Meanwhile, exports of goods declined faster
(by 44.8%) than imports (by 39.8%). However ,
in 2009 Q3, the year-on-year rate of decline in
imports virtually equalled those of exports (about
41%).
Demand
Domestic demand
Slower growth in revenues in various sectors
of the economy and tough borrowing terms have
led to a fall in investors’ activity , the contraction
of stocks and the acceleration of the reduction of
consumer spending this year . Estimates show that
in the 3 rd quarter of the year domestic demand
continued to decline quite rapidly.
In the first half of the year , the share of im -
ports in the retail trade commodity resources con-
tracted by 3 percentage points, as compared with
the same period in 2008, and stood at 42%. The
share of food imports contracted by 2 percentage
points to 34% and that of non-food imports by 3
percentage points to 50%.
The decline in imports accelerated through -
out the nine months of the year . It was connected
7 ccording to the balance of payments estimate as of Octo 
ber 2, 2009.
International trade
The IMF and European Commission predicted last October that international trade in goods and services
would contract by 11.9 12.9% in 2009. The terms of trade for oil exporting countries have been gradually
improving since March, but in January September they were worse than in the same period of 2008. The Inter 
national Energy gency has estimated that world oil consumption declined 2.5% in January September 2009,
as compared with the same period last year; a contraction of 1.9% is expected for this year as a whole. ccord 
ing to IMF estimates, the average price of Brent, Dubai and WTI will fall to $61.5 per barrel this year as against
$97 in 2008, a decrease of 36.6%. In January September 2009, the average price of crude oil fell 48.5%, as
compared with the same period in 2008.
Eurostat’s data indicate that EU oil and petroleum product import volumes contracted in January Septem 
ber 2009, as compared with the same period last year, despite the fact that oil and petroleum product prices had
fallen significantly before they started to rise in the middle of the 1st quarter of the year . This affected the price
of Russian oil and petroleum product exports to the EU, which have been gradually rising since last February , but
in January July were considerably lower than in the same period of 2008. The International Energy gency has
estimated that oil consumption in the European member countries of the OECD fell 4.7% in January September
2009, as compared with the same period last year (by the end of the year, it is expected to contract by 4.4%),
but in the 3rd quarter it grew 3% quarter on quarter (world growth stood at 0.6%). The average contract price
of natural gas Russia exported to Germany in January September 2009 was lower than in the same period last
year by more than 20%.
12 2009 Q3
with the significant contraction of import volumes.
Imports of investment goods decreased more
than imports of consumer goods in that period. At
the same time, the decline in engineering imports
slowed down in the 3rd quarter , imports of chemi-
cals and related products was virtually unchanged
on the previous quarter , while the contraction of
imports of food products and agricultural raw ma-
terials for their production slightly accelerated.
Owing to rapid growth in prices of some im-
ported goods on world markets, especially food
and raw materials for its production, such as sug-
ar , and risk of growth in the prices of these prod-
ucts on the domestic market still exists.
Household real disposable money income fell
0.9% in January-September 2009, as compared
with the same period last year . The public propen-
sity for consumption declined as real wage con -
tracted and unemployment rose rapidly. The share
of household spending on goods and services
contracted by 2.9 percentage points in that peri -
od, as compared with January-September 2008,
and stood at 70.8%; the share of household ex -
penses on the purchase of foreign exchange ex -
panded by 0.8 percentage points to 6.4%. The
public propensity for organised savings reached
13% (as against 7.2% in the first nine months
of 2008), of which the propensity for keeping
money in bank deposits and securities registered
2.1% (3.6%).
Consumer demand started to contract at the
beginning of the year . In the first half of 2009,
household spending on final consumption de -
clined 5.2% (in January-June 2008, it increased
12.8%). In the 3rd quarter , the decline in consum-
er spending accelerated. In January-September
2009, retail trade turnover contracted 5.3%, as
compared with the same period last year , and the
value of paid services provided to households fell
4%.
Government expenditures on final consump-
tion increased 1.7% in January-June 2009 as
against 2.5% in the same period last year . Accord-
ing to the Federal Treasury , in January-Septem -
ber 2009, federal budget expenditures reached
22.6% of GDP as against 15.0% in the same pe-
riod of 2008. Non-interest expenditures rose to
22.1% of GDP as against 14.5% in January-Sep-
tember 2008. This is the highest level in 10 years
and it is chiefly attributable to the implementation
of the anti-crisis measures in support of the real
economy and the national financial system amid
the financial and economic crisis. Federal budget
non-interest expenditures in January-September
2009 accounted for 66.0% of the updated bud -
get plan for 2009 (this compares with 60.3% in
the same period of 2008).
GDP consumption
(growth as % of corresponding period of previous year)
2008 2009
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Full year Q1 Q2
GDP 8.7 7.5 6 1.2 5.6 -9.8 -10.9
Final consumption 9.3 10.3 9.7 6.6 8.9 -1.9 -4.6
Of which:
– households 12.2 13.4 12.2 8.0 11.3 -3.2 -7
Gross capital formation 17.2 21.0 13.4 -2.1 11.1 -56 -55.0
Net exports -9.5 -43.4 -59.4 -39.9 -36.0 17.2 65.7
Source: Rosstat.
Inflation Dynamics
2009 Q3 13
In the middle of 2009 Q1, the value of funds
in the federal government’s accounts with the
Bank of Russia began to contract, as budget ex -
penditures far surpassed budget revenues (in
January-September 2009, this ratio decreased
10.5%, whereas in the same period of last year
it grew 44.6%). This year’s decline would have
been more significant were it not for the consider-
able positive exchange rate difference that arose
from the revaluation of the oil and gas sector
funds in foreign currency-denominated accounts
early in 2009.
In the first three quarters of the year , Rus -
sia registered a federal budget deficit of 4.6% of
GDP , whereas in the same period last year it had
a surplus of 8.3% of GDP . The contraction of the
federal budget surplus at the end of 2008 and the
emergence and growth of the federal budget def-
icit as a result of the measures taken by the Gov -
ernment to support the real sector and the finan-
cial system testify to the easing of the fiscal policy.
At the same time, this accords with the need to
implement a countercyclical budget policy.
Gross capital formation contracted 55.4% in
the first half of the year (in January-June 2008,
it expanded 19.2%). Fixed capital investment
declined 18.9% in January-September 2009,
whereas in the same period last year it increased
16.5%.
Investments in machinery , equipment and
transport vehicles accounted for more than a
third of total investment in January-June 2009.
A fourth of these funds went to purchase import
equipment. Imports of machinery , equipment and
transport vehicles declined 53.7% in January-
June 2009, whereas in the same period last year
they grew 58.4%.
Fixed capital investment was mostly (59.9%)
financed by raised funds. Bank credit accounted
for 12.0% as against 10.5% in January-June
2008.
As exports of goods and services contracted
more slowly in real terms than imports, net ex -
ports increased 33.0% in January-June 2009 (in
the first half of 2008, they fell 28.4%).
Foreign demand
The contraction of foregn demand and the
price downturn on world commodity markets in
January-September 2009 affected the dynam -
ics of Russian exports: compared to the first nine
months of 2008, they declined 44.8% to $206.3
billion.8 In 2009 Q3, however , Russian export vol-
umes expanded, export prices rose and, as a re -
sult, the value of exports increased 18% quarter
on quarter . Exports to the EU countries and CIS
countries in the 3rd quarter grew more slowly than
to the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation mem -
ber states. The most significant growth was reg -
istered in exports to Russia’s major trading part -
ners, such as the United States, the Netherlands,
France, T urkey and Ukraine, whereas exports to
Germany and Finland declined. Natural gas export
8 ccording to the balance of payments estimate as of Oc 
tober 2, 2009.
Economic growth in foreign countries1
GDP contracted by an estimated 4.8% in January September 2009 year on year in the countries account 
ing for a large portion of Russian exports (in January September 2008, it increased 3.5%). Estimates and pre 
liminary data show that US GDP fell 3.2% and eurozone GDP 4.6%. China’s GDP grew 7.7% as against 9.9% in
January September 2008.
The IMF and European Commission expect the world production of goods and services to contract 1.1 1.2%
in 2009, as US GDP will decline 2.5 2.7% and eurozone GDP 4.0 4.2%, while GDP growth in China will slow
from 9% in 2008 to 8.5 8.7%. The expected rates of decline in world production and GDP in some industrialised
nations in 2009 were reviewed downwards as compared with the forecasts made by the same and other sources
(the World Bank and OECD) and published three to six months earlier; the outlook for the economic situation
in China and other emerging markets has improved. In 2009 Q2 and Q3, GDP increased quarter on quarter in
Germany , France and Japan and in Q3 the United States and Italy saw their GDP grow. In March, industrial pro 
duction growth resumed in Japan and in pril June in the industrialised countries of Europe. The United States
has registered growth in industrial output continuously since July 2009.
1 ccording to data compiled by the national statistical agencies of Russia’s trading partners.
14 2009 Q3
volumes in the 3rd quarter increased 25% quarter
on quarter , oil export volumes grew 1.2% and pe-
troleum products 4.1%. There was an expansion
in export volumes of some other commodities.
Supply
Production decline somewhat slowed in the
3rd quarter in the major economic activity catego-
ries and output in these sectors contracted 9.2%
year on year , but in January-September output
decreased 11.8% (in January-September , it grew
7%).
Production decline slowed in the 3 rd quarter
in industry , construction, transport and whole -
sale trade but accelerated in retail trade. Overall,
in January-September , output fell 18.4% year on
year in the construction sector , 14% in transport,
5.3% in retail trade and 4% in wholesale trade.
Industrial output declined 13.5% (in Janu -
ary-September 2008, it rose 5.4%). Mining fell
3% (in January-September 2008, it grew 0.5%);
the most significant decline was registered in min-
ing other than hydrocarbon extraction. In the
manufacturing sector , output was down 19.1%
(in January-September 2008, it was up 7.7%).
At the same time, there was a rise in output in
some months of the 3 rd quarter in the coke and
petroleum products sector , food production and
the production of leather goods.
The output of major livestock products, in -
cluding meat and poultry in slaughter weight,
increased 7% in January-September . The output
of meat and meat products rose 2.6%, of which
the output of meat including premium-quality by-
products grew 11.8%. However , agricultural out-
put declined in the 3 rd quarter because this year’s
harvest was worse than last year’s. Overall, in the
nine months of the year , agricultural output con-
tracted 0.8% (in the same period last year , it grew
9.6%). Grain production has also declined this
year . By the middle of October , farms of all cat-
egories had threshed by 11.5% less grain than a
year earlier . As a result, grain stocks accumulated
by agricultural, procurement and processing or -
ganisations by the middle of last October were by
4.3% smaller than they were at the same time a
year earlier . The fall in stocks may affect the dy -
namics of prices of bread, bakery products and
pasta and eventually push consumer price infla -
tion up.
According to The Russian Economic Barom -
eter , the rate of utilisation of production capac -
ity in the 3 rd quarter was higher than in the 2 nd
at 66-67%. In August, the highest rates of utili -
sation of production capacity were registered by
enterprises in the timber industry (83%) and
food industry (72%). The lowest capacity utilisa-
tion rates were registered in the chemicals sector
(58%) and the building materials and machine-
building industries (62% each).
The contraction of foreign and domestic de -
mand led to a downturn in business activities and
the production of goods and services fell below
its natural (potential) level. In January-September
2009, GDP shrank by an estimated 10-11%. The
gap between actual and potential output is nega-
tive.
Labour market
The number of employed in the economy fell
2.4% in January-September 2009 (in January-
September 2008, it rose 0.8%). Labour produc -
tivity declined by an estimated 7.6% (in January-
September 2008, it increased 6.3%). Estimates
show that the rates of decline in labour productiv-
ity in the services sector in the first half of this year
were lower than in the manufacturing sector . The
rates of decline in the output of goods were faster
than the rates of decline in the production of ser -
vices. The number of employed in the service sec-
tor in January-June 2009, as compared with the
same period last year , decreased to a lesser extent
than in the manufacturing sector .
Inflation Dynamics
2009 Q3 15
Real wage decreased 3.5% in January-Sep -
tember 2009, whereas in the same period of last
year it rose 12.7%. In the 3 rd quarter , the rate
of decline in real wage accelerated. At the same
time, real wage declined more slowly than labour
productivity.
The share of wages and salaries in the in -
come structure of GDP expanded from 47.5% in
the first half of 2008 to 54.9% in the first half of
this year .
Significant differences remained in compen-
sation levels in the various activity categories. The
highest average monthly wage in January-Sep -
tember 2009 was registered in the financial sector
(40,411 rubles) and hydrocarbon extraction sec-
tor (39,461 rubles). Compensation in these sec -
tors exceeded the national average by 2.23 times
and 2.18 times respectively. The lowest wages
were registered in agriculture, hunting and for -
estry (9,074 rubles), textile and clothing indus -
try (8,676 rubles) and the production of leather ,
leather goods and footwear (9,539 rubles). These
wage levels make up 50.2%, 48% and 52.7% of
the national average respectively. Below-average
wages and salaries were registered in the sectors
largely financed from the budget (education, util-
ities, public and personal services, healthcare and
social services) and in the manufacturing sector ,
construction, wholesale and retail trade and car
and other repair services.
Although growth in the total number of un -
employed slowed in the 3 rd quarter , in January-
September 2009, the number of unemployed in-
creased 39.4%, as compared with the same pe -
riod last year . As of the end of September 2009,
the total number of unemployed stood at 7.6% of
the economically active population (6.2% a year
earlier).
16 2009 Q3
Monetary Conditions
Exchange rate
The domestic foreign exchange market in the
3rd quarter of the year was mainly characterised by
the stable dynamics of the ruble’s exchange rate
against major world currencies amid persistently
favourable external economic conditions. As the
ruble exchange rate dynamics was not particularly
volatile in July-September , the volume of opera-
tions conducted by the Bank of Russia on the for-
eign exchange market to mitigate exchange rate
fluctuations was small.
The current account surplus reached an es -
timated $32.1 billion in January-September as
against $17.1 billion in the first half of the year .
Preliminary data show that there was a private
sector net capital outflow of $31.5 in the 3rd quar-
ter , whereas in the 2nd there was a net capital in -
flow of $4.4 billion. Russia’s international reserves
increased 0.2% and as of October 1, 2009, they
stood at $413.4 billion.
The nominal ruble/dollar rate rose 2.8%
in 2009 Q3 as against 5.3% in Q2. It should be
noted that in Q3 the ruble appreciated against the
dollar only in September , when it gained 2.6%,
whereas in July it was down 1.6% and in August
0.4%. As the external economic conditions im -
proved, mostly owing to growth in oil prices, the
ruble appreciated further against the dollar (by
4.5% in October). As of October 27, 2009, the
official rate of the dollar against the ruble declined
to a 10-month low of 28.9403 rubles. By Novem-
ber 1, it had risen slightly and reached 29.0488
rubles.
The nominal ruble/euro rate fell 2.1%
in July-September , whereas in the 2nd quarter it
gained 1.4%. While in July and August the nomi-
nal rate of the ruble depreciated against the euro
by 1.9% and 1.6% respectively , in September
the ruble appreciated 0.6% against the Europe -
an currency. In October , the nominal rate of the
ruble continued to rise and gained 2.7%. As of
November 1, the official euro/ruble rate stood at
43.0678 rubles to the euro.
The ruble value of the bi-currency basket
declined to 36.2543 rubles in the 3 rd quarter . As
the ruble continued to appreciate against the dol-
lar and the euro, the value of the bi-currency bas-
ket fell to 35.3574 rubles as of November 1.
The nominal effective rate of the ruble
against foreign currencies depreciated 1.0%
in July-September , whereas in the 2nd quarter it
appreciated 2.9%. The nominal ruble/euro ex -
change rate made a major contribution to the
depreciation of the nominal effective rate of the
ruble, as the eurozone accounted for a substantial
portion of Russia’s foreign trade turnover .
Monetary Conditions
2009 Q3 17
The real rate of the ruble against the US
dollar gained 3.3% in July-September , whereas
in the 2nd quarter it appreciated 7.1%. Compared
to the 2 nd quarter , the relative contributions of
the nominal rate of the ruble against the dollar
and inflation differential to the real rate dynamics
remained virtually unchanged. Preliminary esti -
mates show that in October the ruble rallied 4.5%
against the dollar in real terms.
The real rate of the ruble against the euro
declined 0.8% in the 3rd quarter , whereas in the 2nd
it rose 3.6%. It should be noted that the relative
contribution of the changes in the nominal rate to
the the ruble’s rate against the euro increased in
International currency market
The euro appreciated more than 7.5% against the US dollar on the international currency market in Janu 
ary September 2009 (September on December 2008). s for the currencies of Russia’s major trading partners,
the pound sterling and Swiss franc gained about 9.5% against the dollar and 2% against the euro, the Swedish
krona, South Korea’s won and Brazilian real also rallied against the US and European currency. The Hungarian
forint and Turkish lira appreciated against the dollar
but weakened against the euro. The Japanese yen,
Chinese yuan, Indian rupee and Polish zloty remained
virtually unchanged against the US dollar but depre 
ciated 7 8% against the euro. The Ukrainian hryvnia,
Kazakhstan tenge and Belarusian ruble became de 
preciated against the dollar and the euro.
The yuan/dollar rate has been stable since the
middle of 2008 (6.82 6.85 yuan to the dollar).
Belarus devalued its currency against the dollar by
20% in January 2009 and Kazakhstan did the same
a month later . Subsequently , Belarus allowed the Be 
larusian ruble value of a currency basket composed of
US dollars, euros and Russian rubles to rise by 10%
above the level set in January. The financial crisis in
Ukraine in 2008 Q4 and early 2009 was accompa 
nied by a significant depreciation of the hryvnia, but
later the situation stabilised and the Ukrainian mon stabilised and the Ukrainian mon 
etary authorities managed to set the official rate of
the US dollar against the hryvnia in accordance with
the current foreign exchange market conditions.
18 2009 Q3
July-September . Preliminary data show that in Oc-
tober the real rate of the ruble rose 2.7% against
the euro and virtually kept pace with the nominal
appreciation of the ruble against the European
currency owing to a minimal inflation differential
between Russia and the eurozone countries in
that period.
The real effective rate of the ruble against
foreign currencies was unchanged in the quarter
under review, whereas in the 2nd quarter it had ap-
preciated 4.8%. The fall in the real effective rate of
the ruble by 1.3% in July and in August was off -
set in September , when the ruble gained 1.2% in
real terms against the currencies of Russia’s major
trading partners. According to preliminary data,
in October the real effective rate of the ruble rose
2.7% against foreign currencies.
Estimates show that the ruble’s rate against
foreign currencies in the period of from July to Oc-
tober will have no significant effect on domestic
inflation until the end of the year .
Interest rates
Money market and Bank of Russia interest
rates
In July-October 2009, the Bank of Russia
continued to cut interest rates on its operations,
taking into consideration the internal and external
macroeconomic trends, inflation and exchange
rate expectations and monetary and credit aggre-
gate dynamics.
Despite the reduction of interest rates and
the measures taken by the Bank of Russia to in -
fuse liquidity into credit institutions in the previous
periods, bank credit supply and the economy’s
demand for credit continued to contract and ad -
versely impact economic dynamics. In that situa -
tion, bearing in mind the tendency towards the re-
duction of inflation and inflationary expectations
and seeking to stimulate lending and business
activity , the Bank of Russia in July-October cut five
times interest rates on its operations. In the period
under review, the overnight credit rate (refinance
rate) was cut from 11.5% to 9.5% p.a., tom-next
deposit rate from 6.25% to 4.25% p.a. and the
minimum overnight repo auction rate from 8.5%
to 6.75% p.a. In addition, on September 30,
the Bank of Russia set at the same level the mini -
mum overnight and 7-day repo auction rates and
2-week Lombard auction rates.
As banking sector liquidity increased, the av-
erage daily debt of banks to the Bank of Russia on
the liquidity it provided to them declined from 2.5
trillion rubles in the first half of the year to 1.2 tril-
lion rubles in July-October . The share of uncovered
loans in the structure of bank obligations to the
Bank of Russia contracted from 58.5% in the first
Foreign central bank policies
The US Federal Reserve maintains the fed 
eral funds rate within the range of from 0% to
0.25% p.a. and keeps buying from banks the estab 
lished amounts of government securities and Fannie
Mae and Freddie Mac bonds. This means that the
United States continues to ease its monetary policy
after cutting interest rates to zero (‘quantitative eas 
ing’). The ‘quantitative easing’ targets are expected
to be met in 2010 Q1.
The European Central Bank cut the refinanc 
ing rate from 2.5% to 1.5% p.a. in 2009 Q1 and to
1% p.a. in Q2. In the period since the beginning of
the year, the central banks of most of the countries
trading with Russia and many other countries have
cut interest rates on monetary policy instruments.
Specifically , in Q3, interest rates were cut in Den 
mark, Sweden, Hungary , the Czech Republic, Turkey ,
Brazil, South frica, Kazakhstan and Ukraine. China’s
benchmark rates on yuan denominated deposits and
loans have remained unchanged since the beginning
of the year .
Monetary Conditions
2009 Q3 19
half of the year to 39.5% in July-October , while
the share of loans extended against ‘non-market’
assets or guarantees expanded from 27.1% to
43.6% respectively. At the same time, the Bank
of Russia’s average daily debt on liquidity absorp-
tion instruments increased from 270 billion rubles
in the first half of the year to 325 billion rubles in
July-October .
The policy adopted by the Government and
the monetary policy measures taken by the Bank
of Russia led to the fall in interest rates on the
credit and deposit market, except interest rates on
short-term loans to households.
Average interbank ruble credit rates de-
clined in the 3rd quarter . The average quarterly MI-
ACR on overnight ruble loans fell from 7.5% p.a.
in the previous quarter to 6.8% p.a. in the 3 rd
quarter . Throughout the 3rd quarter , the overnight
ruble MIACR varied between 5.9% and 8.6% p.a.
as against 6.3% and 11.0% p.a. in the 2 nd quar-
ter . In October , the overnight ruble MIACR ranged
between 5.1% and 6.7% p.a. and averaged
5.8% p.a., a decrease of 1.4 percentage points
on September . The rate on 2- to 7-day ruble inter-
bank loans fell from 7.6% p.a. in the 2 nd quarter
to 7.0% p.a. in the 3 rd, the rate on 8- to 30-day
20 2009 Q3
interbank loans declined from 10.3% to 9.4%
p.a. and the rate on 1- to 3-month interbank
loans dropped from 12.1% to 10.2% p.a.
Household deposit interest rates fell slightly
in the 3rd quarter . The average rate on household
short-term ruble deposits in the 3 rd quarter de -
clined by 0.1 percentage points quarter on quar -
ter , to 10.7% p.a. The average rate on household
long-term ruble deposits dropped by 0.3 percent-
age points to 11.1% p.a.
The average quarterly interest rate on long-
term ruble household loans in the 3 rd quarter
was 20.2% p.a., down 0.1 percentage points
on the previous quarter . The average short-term
credit rate edged up by 1.2 percentage points to
30.7% p.a. in the 3rd quarter .
As the credit market somewhat stabilised,
the rates on ruble loans to non-financial or -
ganisations with all terms declined. The average
quarterly long-term credit rate fell by half a per -
centage point to 15.8% p.a. in that period. The
average rate on short-term loans to non-financial
organisations was 14.9% p.a. in the 3 rd quar -
ter , down 0.9 percentage points on the previous
Monetary Conditions
2009 Q3 21
els in nine months. The MICEX index gained
23.2% on September 30, as compared with the
end of the 2 nd quarter , and reached 1,197.20
points, while the RTS index climbed up 27.1% to
1,254.52 points. The average MICEX and RTS in-
dices exceeded their previous quarter’s levels by
8.1% and 13.6% respectively.
In 2009 Q3, the RTS index rose faster than
similar indices in most of the emerging market
countries. The stock indices in India and China
gained 18.2% and 19.5% respectively , whereas
China’s index sank 6.1%.
Prices of Russian companies’ shares in all
sectors of the economy continued to rise precipi -
tously in the 3rd quarter . As in the previous quarter ,
the biggest growth was registered in the prices of
quarter . Interest rates on loans with terms shorter
than 1 month and longer than 3 years declined
the most (by 1.2 percentage points and 0.9 per -
centage points respectively). The yield curve for
loans to non-financial organisations moved down
in the 3rd quarter , continuing to ascend in the up-
to-6-months sector and to descend in the longer-
term sector .
Asset prices
Securities prices rose rapidly on the Russian
stock market in the 3rd quarter amid the increase
of the world major stock indices and favourable
external economic situation. In September , the
MICEX and RTS indices reached the highest lev -
22 2009 Q3
shares in the consumer goods and retail trade sec-
tors, the manufacturing sector and the financial
sector .
In October , growth in Russian share prices
slowed down slightly , as in the last 10 days of the
month external adversities brought about a down-
ward correction in stock market prices. Compared
with September , the MICEX index rose 3.3% to
1,237.18 points and the RTS index gained 7.5%
and reached 1,348.54 points. The dynamics of
most of the RTS sectoral indices was more moder-
ate than in September . Consumer goods and retail
trade company stock prices that led the market in
the 3rd quarter dropped in October .
OFZ market yields changed within a broad
range in the 3rd quarter . The effective OFZ market
portfolio indicator (MPI) gained 0.4 percentage
points quarter on quarter and stood at 10.7% p.a.
The average quarterly effective MPI rose by 0.3
percentage points to 10.6% p.a. There was a
marked downward trend in OFZ yield dynamics
in October . Government bond yields fluctuated
between 8.9% and 10.5% p.a. By the end of Oc-
tober , the effective MPI decreased 1.5 percentage
points, as compared with the previous month,
and stood at 9.2% p.a. The average effective MPI
registered 9.6% p.a. in October , a fall of 1.0 per-
centage point on September .
Long-term government bond yields changed
following the changes in short- and medium-term
OFZ yields. In July and August, there remained a
wide spread between yields on various govern -
ment bond issues and in September it began to
narrow. In September and October , the OFZ yield
curve was clearly rising, even though at a lower
level. By the end of October , the government
bond yield curve’s slope decreased as compared
with September , as the spread between short-
term and longer-term bond yields narrowed.
Yields had a tendency to fall on the ruble
corporate and regional bonds market in July-
October . In the 3rd quarter , the average yield of
corporate and regional bonds was 14.1% and
14.4% p.a. respectively as against 15.7% and
16.2% p.a. in the 2 nd quarter . In October , the av-
erage corporate and regional bond yields declined
month on month by 1.6 percentage points and
2.4 percentage points to 11.9% and 11.0% p.a.
Monetary Conditions
2009 Q3 23
respectively. In the middle of September , the re-
gional bond yield fell below the corporate bond
yield. July-October saw the spreads between OFZ
yields and corporate and regional bond yields
continue to narrow.
Monetary aggregates
Despite instability , the demand for money in
January-September 2009 grew slower than in the
same period last year and it was largely affected by
the significant contraction of GDP , slower growth
in asset prices and exchange rate dynamics. Nev-
ertheless, the demand for the national currency as
the store of value began gradually to increase in
the 3rd quarter of the year , as the ruble appreciat-
ed and the devaluation expectations subsided. At
the same time, the slackening of business activity
and asset price dynamics, mostly on the real estate
market,1 continued to adversely affect growth in
the demand for money in that period.
In the 2nd quarter , the slowing of M2 growth
stopped and in the 3rd quarter the annual rates of
M2 growth somewhat stabilised. As a result, data
as of October 1, 2009, indicate that M2 contract-
ed 5% year on year . This dynamics of the annual
rates of growth was largely the result of the base
effect, which is characterised by the precipitous
decline in the annual rates of M2 growth since
the second half of 2008. At the same time, if we
consider the dynamics of the 6-month rates of
M2 growth (on an annualised basis), which is less
dependent on last year’s base effect, we shall see
that M2 growth has been accelerating since the
2nd quarter of the year .
The annual rates of growth in the narrow
monetary base declined in January-August and
increased slightly only in September and October .
As of November 1, 2009, the narrow monetary
base contracted 8.3% year on year . At the same
time, viewed on the basis of the 6-month rates
of growth (on an annualised basis), the narrow
monetary base dynamics demonstrated acceler -
1 nnualised rates of growth in housing prices on the primary
market continued to fall in the 3rd quarter, as well.
24 2009 Q3
in money and comprising cash and demand de -
posits, increased 1.4% in the 3 rd quarter of the
year , whereas in the same period of last year it
contracted 0.4%. At the same time, the annua -
lised rates of growth in this monetary aggregate
were negative in January-September amid the
significant decline in business activity and as of
October 1, 2009, it contracted 9.1% year on year
(a year earlier , it expanded 14.3%). Demand de-
posits, which are mainly represented by funds in
non-financial organisations’ settlement and cur -
rent accounts, increased 3.7% in the 3 rd quarter ,
whereas in the same period last year they declined
4.8%.
Cash in circulation decreased 1% in 2009
Q3 (in Q2, it grew 7.4%). This may be attribut -
ated growth since last May , which continued until
October . The sources of growth in the monetary
base were the expansion of net credit to the fed -
eral government and the increase in the monetary
authorities’ net international reserves.
The M2 in 2009 Q3 increased 3.7% as
against 0.9% in the same period last year . The
principal source of growth in the money supply in
the 3rd quarter , as in the 2nd, was the increase in
net claims on government. In 2009 Q2 and Q3,
their growth exceeded several times aggregate
growth in the banking sector’s net foreign assets
and claims on non-financial organisations and
households.
Transactional money , a monetary aggregate
reflecting the transactional needs of the economy
Monetary Conditions
2009 Q3 25
able, to some extent, to higher net sales of for -
eign exchange to households in July-September
as compared with the 2nd quarter of the year . As a
result, cash in circulation demonstrated negative
growth in 2009 Q3 and according to data as of
October 1, 2009, its volume contracted 10.7%
year on year .
Throughout the 3rd quarter , the monthly rates
of growth in ruble-denominated time deposits
accelerated in the household sector as well as
the non-financial organisation sector . As a result,
the value of ruble-denominated time deposits in-
creased 6.5% in the 3rd quarter and exceeded by
more than two times 3 rd quarter growth last year
(2.7%). This dynamics was largely the result of
the gradual stabilisation and subsequent appreci-
ation of the ruble and high deposit interest rates.
At the same time, the annual rate of growth in
ruble-denominated time deposits remained low
and as of October 1, 2009, it stood at 0.2% as
against 42.4% a year earlier .
Net sales of foreign exchange to households
through banks in the 3rd quarter increased signifi-
cantly , whereas in February-June they had fallen
dramatically. As the dollar and euro appreciated
against the ruble in nominal terms in July and Au-
gust, net sales of foreign exchange to households
through exchange offices increased to $6.4 billion
in the 3rd quarter (in February-June, total net sales
were negative at about $1.5 billion).
After significant decline in the annual rates
of growth in foreign currency deposits (in dol -
lar terms) in February-May , in June-September
they rose again. Moreover , their monthly rates of
growth in June, July and September were faster
than in the same months of last year . Despite a
slight fall as compared with the beginning of the
year , the rate of deposit dollarisation in the first
nine months of the year was markedly higher
than in the same period of 2008. As of October 1,
2009, foreign currency deposits (in ruble terms)
accounted for 27.6% of total bank deposits as
against 13.9% as of October 1, 2008 and 22.1%
of broad money as against 10.5% a year earlier .
The broad money , which comprises foreign
currency deposits, expanded 4.5% in January-
September 2009 as against 9.8% in the same pe-
riod last year . The annual rate of growth in broad
money changed but slightly and as of October 1,
2009, it stood at 9.1% as against 26.5% a year
earlier . At the same time, the dynamics of the
6-month rate of growth in broad money (on an
annualised basis), which is less vulnerable to last
year’s base effect, has demonstrated the accelera-
tion of growth in M2X since the 2nd quarter of the
year .
Credit aggregates
Lending activities remained low in 2009 Q3.
Of all the components of credit aggregates, only
debt on ruble loans to non-financial organisa -
tions increased in absolute terms in that period.
This may be a sign of some stabilisation on the
credit markets, but does not indicate a reversal
of the negative trend. Debt on foreign currency-
denominated loans to non-financial organisations
26 2009 Q3
and all kinds of debt on loans to households con-
tinued to contract in absolute terms. As a result,
as of October 1, 2009, growth in debt on loans to
non-financial organisations slowed from 44.1%
in 2008 to 5.7%. Debt on loans to households
contracted by 9.9% in absolute terms year on
year (in 2008, it grew 50.7%). The annual rate
of growth in total debt on credit to non-financial
organisations and households stood at 1.8% as
of October 1, 2009 as against 45.7% as of Oc -
tober 1, 2008.
As the macroeconomic situation deteriorated
and the cost of borrowing on the domestic market
soared, the current credit aggregates dynamics
reflected both the significantly lower demand for
credit by economic agents and the undersupply
of credit by the banking sector . At the same time,
the favourable liquidity situation on the interbank
money market, the fall in Bank of Russia interest
rates and the expanding ruble deposit base create
conditions conducive to the recovery of the bank-
ing sector credit supply. Debt on long-term ruble-
denominated loans (over one year) to non-finan-
cial organisations demonstrated positive annual
growth rates and continued to increase in abso -
lute terms throughout the year . This may indicate
that large banks had the capacity to provide funds
on a long-term basis, due to the measures taken
by the Bank of Russia and the Government in sup-
port of the banking system and the real economy.
At the same time, the sharp contraction of debt on
short-term loans (up to one year) to non-financial
organisations may reflect a fall in the demand for
credit.
Overall, overdue debt on loans to non-fi -
nancial organisations and households continued
to increase in 2009 Q3, although in September
overdue debt on loans to non-financial organisa -
tions contracted for the first time this year in ab -
solute terms and in total loans. The trend towards
the stabilisation of overdue debt may contribute
to the gradual recovery of credit supply.
Thus, the prolonged reduction of the annual
rates of growth in all monetary aggregates and
the rates of growth in credit to the non-financial
sector contributed to the lessening of pressure put
by the monetary factors on inflation this year .
2009 Q3 27
Statistical Addendum
Table 1
Consumer prices by group of goods and services
(month on month, %)
Monthly
inflation
Core
inflation
Food price
growth
Food price
growth 1
Vegetable
and fruit price
growth
Non-food
price growth
Growth in non-
food prices,
excluding petrol
prices 2
Service price
growth
January 1.7 0.6 0.9 0.6 4.1 0.4 0.4 4.7
February 1.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 3.6 0.3 0.4 2.6
March 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.5 3.2 0.4 0.4 0.6
April 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.5 3.1 0.4 0.4 0.5
May 0.6 0.3 1.0 0.1 7.8 0.4 0.3 0.5
June 1.0 0.4 1.7 0.4 12.2 0.3 0.3 0.6
July 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.9 0.4 0.4 0.6
August 0.1 1.1 -0.6 1.6 -16.1 0.6 0.5 0.5
September 0.8 1.6 1.0 2.2 -8.8 0.8 0.8 0.4
October 1.6 2.1 3.3 3.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.1
November 1.2 1.1 1.9 1.5 6.2 0.9 0.8 0.6
December 1.1 0.9 1.6 1.2 5.6 0.7 0.5 0.9
Full year (December on December) 11.9 11.0 15.6 14.9 22.2 6.5 6.4 13.3
January 2.3 1.1 1.9 1.2 8.3 0.6 0.6 5.4
February 1.2 1.0 1.7 1.3 5.1 0.6 0.6 1.4
March 1.2 1.1 2.0 1.5 5.9 0.7 0.7 0.6
April 1.4 1.3 2.2 1.8 5.5 0.9 0.7 1.0
May 1.4 1.1 2.1 1.5 6.4 0.8 0.6 1.0
June 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.7 0.5 1.1
July 0.5 0.8 0.1 1.0 -6.7 0.7 0.5 0.9
August 0.4 1.0 -0.2 1.2 -11.3 0.6 0.6 0.9
September 0.8 1.4 0.7 1.5 -6.4 0.7 0.8 1.0
October 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.8 -0.4 0.8 1.0 0.0
November 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.9 0.7
December 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.7 0.1 0.6 1.0
Full year (December on December) 13.3 13.6 16.5 17.5 7.7 8.0 8.4 13.3
January 2.4 1.3 1.4 1.1 4.7 0.7 1.0 6.3
February 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.5 4.9 1.6 1.8 1.4
March 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.4 4.5 1.4 1.6 0.6
April 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 -0.1 1.0 1.1 0.3
May 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.3 4.1 0.7 0.8 0.3
June 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.1 3.9 0.8 0.3 0.5
July 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.2 3.2 0.6 0.2 0.8
August 0.0 0.5 -0.9 0.4 -11.0 0.6 0.4 0.4
September 0.0 0.5 -0.8 0.4 -11.5 0.7 0.6 0.1
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Bank of Russia estimate.
Note. T ables 1 to 7 are based on Rosstat data and Bank of Russia calculations.
28 2009 Q3
Table 2
Consumer prices by group of goods and services
(since start of year on accrual basis, %)
Monthly
inflation
Core
inflation
Food price
growth
Food price
growth 1
Vegetable
and fruit price
growth
Non-food
price growth
Growth in non-
food prices,
excluding petrol
prices 2
Service price
growth
January 1.7 0.6 0.9 0.6 4.1 0.4 0.4 4.7
February 2.8 1.1 1.8 1.1 7.8 0.7 0.8 7.4
March 3.4 1.7 2.6 1.7 11.2 1.1 1.2 8.0
April 4.0 2.2 3.3 2.1 14.7 1.5 1.7 8.6
May 4.7 2.5 4.3 2.3 23.6 1.9 2.0 9.1
June 5.7 3.0 6.1 2.7 38.6 2.2 2.3 9.8
July 6.6 3.9 7.6 4.1 41.2 2.6 2.8 10.5
August 6.7 5.0 7.0 5.8 18.5 3.2 3.3 11.1
September 7.5 6.7 8.1 8.1 8.1 4.0 4.2 11.6
October 9.3 8.9 11.6 11.9 9.0 4.9 5.1 11.7
November 10.6 10.1 13.7 13.5 15.7 5.8 5.9 12.4
December 11.9 11.0 15.6 14.9 22.2 6.5 6.4 13.3
January 2.3 1.1 1.9 1.2 8.3 0.6 0.6 5.4
February 3.5 2.1 3.6 2.5 13.9 1.2 1.2 6.8
March 4.8 3.2 5.7 4.0 20.6 2.0 1.9 7.5
April 6.3 4.5 8.0 5.9 27.2 2.9 2.6 8.5
May 7.7 5.7 10.2 7.5 35.4 3.7 3.2 9.6
June 8.7 6.7 11.4 8.7 36.0 4.4 3.7 10.8
July 9.3 7.6 11.5 9.8 26.9 5.2 4.2 11.9
August 9.7 8.6 11.3 11.2 12.5 5.8 4.9 12.9
September 10.6 10.1 12.1 12.9 5.3 6.5 5.7 14.1
October 11.6 11.5 13.9 14.9 4.8 7.3 6.8 14.1
November 12.5 12.7 15.3 16.3 5.9 7.8 7.8 14.8
December 13.3 13.6 16.5 17.5 7.7 8.0 8.4 13.3
January 2.4 1.3 1.4 1.1 4.7 0.7 1.0 6.3
February 4.1 2.9 3.3 2.6 9.8 2.3 2.8 7.8
March 5.4 4.3 5.0 4.0 14.7 3.8 4.5 8.5
April 6.2 5.2 5.8 4.8 14.6 4.8 5.7 8.7
May 6.8 5.7 6.5 5.1 19.3 5.5 6.5 9.1
June 7.4 6.0 7.0 5.2 24.0 6.3 6.9 9.6
July 8.1 6.3 7.6 5.4 28.0 7.0 7.1 10.5
August 8.1 6.8 6.6 5.8 14.0 7.6 7.6 10.9
September 8.1 7.3 5.8 6.3 0.8 8.3 8.2 11.0
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Bank of Russia estimate.
Statistical Addendum
2009 Q3 29
Table 3
Consumer prices by group of goods and services
(month on corresponding month of previous year, %)
Monthly
inflation
Core
inflation 1
Food price
growth
Food price
growth 2
Vegetable
and fruit price
growth
Non-food
price growth
Growth in non-
food prices,
excluding petrol
prices 1
Service price
growth
January 8.2 7.7 7.6 8.0 3.1 6.0 5.7 12.3
February 7.6 6.9 5.3 6.6 -5.1 5.8 5.6 14.2
March 7.4 6.7 4.9 6.2 -5.2 5.8 5.6 14.0
April 7.6 6.8 5.4 6.3 -1.9 5.9 5.8 13.9
May 7.8 6.7 5.9 6.3 3.0 5.9 5.7 13.8
June 8.5 6.9 7.7 6.6 16.2 5.9 5.7 13.7
July 8.7 7.3 8.3 7.4 15.3 5.9 5.8 13.7
August 8.6 7.8 8.3 8.3 7.5 5.7 5.8 13.4
September 9.4 8.7 10.0 10.0 10.2 5.8 6.1 13.4
October 10.8 10.3 13.6 13.4 15.9 6.0 6.3 13.1
November 11.5 10.9 14.9 14.4 19.8 6.3 6.4 13.2
December 11.9 11.0 15.6 14.9 22.2 6.5 6.4 13.3
January 12.6 11.5 16.7 15.7 27.2 6.8 6.6 14.1
February 12.7 12.1 17.6 16.5 29.1 7.0 6.8 12.7
March 13.3 12.7 19.1 17.6 32.6 7.4 7.1 12.7
April 14.3 13.5 20.8 19.1 35.6 8.0 7.4 13.3
May 15.1 14.5 22.1 20.8 33.9 8.4 7.7 13.9
June 15.1 15.1 21.3 21.7 19.9 8.9 7.9 14.4
July 14.7 15.0 19.8 21.2 9.8 9.2 8.0 14.7
August 15.0 14.8 20.2 20.8 16.1 9.2 8.1 15.2
September 15.0 14.5 19.9 20.0 19.0 9.1 8.1 15.9
October 14.2 13.7 17.9 18.0 17.5 9.1 8.2 15.7
November 13.8 13.7 17.2 17.7 11.9 8.6 8.4 15.8
December 13.3 13.6 16.5 17.5 7.7 8.0 8.4 13.3
January 13.4 13.9 15.9 17.3 4.1 8.1 8.9 16.9
February 13.9 14.6 16.1 17.6 3.8 9.2 10.2 17.0
March 14.0 14.9 15.8 17.4 2.5 9.9 11.2 17.0
April 13.2 14.4 14.1 16.3 -3.0 10.0 11.7 16.2
May 12.3 13.6 12.5 14.9 -5.1 9.9 11.9 15.4
June 11.9 12.9 11.9 13.7 -1.8 9.9 11.7 14.6
July 12.0 12.3 12.4 12.7 8.7 9.8 11.4 14.5
August 11.6 11.7 11.6 11.8 9.1 9.9 11.2 13.9
September 10.7 10.8 9.9 10.6 3.2 9.9 11.0 12.8
1 Bank of Russia estimate.
2 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
30 2009 Q3
Table 4
Inflation growth over period since start of year due to price changes
by group of goods and services (percentage points)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food
products
Paid
services
Vegetables and
fruit
Inflation over
period, %
Core
inflation
Non-core
inflation 2
January 0.2 0.1 1.2 0.2 1.7 0.5 1.2
February 0.4 0.3 1.8 0.3 2.8 0.9 1.9
March 0.6 0.4 2.0 0.4 3.4 1.3 2.1
April 0.8 0.5 2.1 0.6 4.0 1.7 2.3
May 0.8 0.7 2.3 0.9 4.7 1.9 2.7
June 1.0 0.8 2.4 1.5 5.7 2.3 3.4
July 1.5 0.9 2.6 1.6 6.6 3.0 3.6
August 2.1 1.1 2.7 0.7 6.7 3.9 2.8
September 3.0 1.4 2.9 0.3 7.5 5.3 2.3
October 4.3 1.7 2.9 0.3 9.3 7.0 2.3
November 4.9 2.0 3.1 0.6 10.6 7.9 2.7
December 5.4 2.3 3.3 0.9 11.9 8.7 3.2
January 0.4 0.2 1.3 0.3 2.3 0.8 1.5
February 0.9 0.4 1.7 0.5 3.5 1.6 1.9
March 1.4 0.7 1.9 0.8 4.8 2.5 2.3
April 2.1 1.0 2.1 1.0 6.3 3.6 2.7
May 2.6 1.3 2.4 1.4 7.7 4.5 3.2
June 3.1 1.6 2.7 1.4 8.7 5.3 3.5
July 3.5 1.9 3.0 1.0 9.3 6.0 3.3
August 3.9 2.1 3.2 0.5 9.7 6.8 2.9
September 4.5 2.3 3.5 0.2 10.6 8.0 2.6
October 5.2 2.6 3.5 0.2 11.6 9.2 2.4
November 5.8 2.8 3.7 0.2 12.5 10.1 2.4
December 6.2 2.9 4.0 0.3 13.3 10.8 2.5
January 0.4 0.3 1.6 0.2 2.4 1.0 1.4
February 0.9 0.9 2.0 0.4 4.1 2.4 1.7
March 1.4 1.4 2.1 0.5 5.4 3.5 2.0
April 1.6 1.8 2.2 0.5 6.2 4.2 2.0
May 1.8 2.1 2.3 0.7 6.8 4.6 2.2
June 1.8 2.4 2.4 0.9 7.4 4.8 2.6
July 1.9 2.6 2.6 1.0 8.1 5.1 3.0
August 2.0 2.9 2.7 0.5 8.1 5.5 2.6
September 2.1 3.1 2.8 0.0 8.1 5.9 2.1
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
Statistical Addendum
2009 Q3 31
Table 5
Monthly inflation growth due to price changes
by group of goods and services (percentage points)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food
products
Paid
services
Vegetables
and fruit
Inflation over
period, %
Core
inflation
Non-core
inflation 2
January 0.2 0.1 1.2 0.2 1.7 0.5 1.2
February 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.1 1.1 0.4 0.7
March 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.2
April 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.2
May 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.4
June 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.6
July 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.2
August 0.6 0.2 0.1 -0.8 0.1 0.8 -0.7
September 0.8 0.3 0.1 -0.4 0.8 1.3 -0.5
October 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.6 1.6 0.0
November 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 1.2 0.8 0.4
December 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.1 0.7 0.5
January 0.4 0.2 1.3 0.3 2.3 0.8 1.5
February 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 1.2 0.8 0.4
March 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 1.2 0.8 0.3
April 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 1.4 1.0 0.4
May 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.4 0.9 0.5
June 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.0 0.7 0.2
July 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.3 0.5 0.7 -0.1
August 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.5 0.4 0.8 -0.4
September 0.5 0.2 0.3 -0.3 0.8 1.1 -0.3
October 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.9 1.1 -0.2
November 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.0
December 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1
January 0.4 0.3 1.6 0.2 2.4 1.0 1.4
February 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.7 1.3 0.3
March 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 1.3 1.1 0.2
April 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.0
May 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2
June 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.4
July 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.4
August 3
September 3
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
3 Owing to zero inflation in August and September 2009, estimates may vary.
32 2009 Q3
Table 6
Contribution to inflation growth over period since start of year
by group of goods and services (%)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food products Paid services Vegetables and fruit Core inflation Non-core inflation 2
January 13.4 8.3 69.0 9.3 29.5 70.5
February 14.9 9.2 65.3 10.6 31.3 68.7
March 17.8 11.6 58.1 12.5 38.3 61.7
April 19.6 13.5 52.9 14.1 42.8 57.2
May 18.0 14.3 48.3 19.4 41.6 58.4
June 17.6 13.7 42.7 26.0 40.4 59.6
July 22.9 13.9 39.2 23.9 45.8 54.2
August 31.7 16.9 40.8 10.6 58.5 41.5
September 39.3 18.7 37.9 4.1 69.9 30.1
October 46.6 18.6 31.1 3.7 75.4 24.6
November 46.3 19.2 28.8 5.7 74.5 25.5
December 45.7 19.4 27.8 7.2 72.8 27.2
January 18.9 9.3 58.1 13.7 36.2 63.8
February 25.1 12.1 47.9 14.9 46.1 53.9
March 29.7 14.7 39.0 16.6 52.7 47.3
April 33.0 16.5 33.9 16.6 57.0 43.0
May 34.2 17.1 31.1 17.6 58.5 41.5
June 35.2 18.2 30.8 15.7 60.5 39.5
July 37.3 19.9 31.7 11.1 64.4 35.6
August 40.6 21.4 33.0 5.0 70.5 29.5
September 43.0 22.0 33.1 1.9 75.7 24.3
October 45.3 22.9 30.2 1.6 79.2 20.8
November 46.0 22.6 29.6 1.8 80.8 19.2
December 46.4 21.6 29.8 2.2 81.5 18.5
January 15.6 11.3 66.2 7.0 42.3 57.7
February 22.1 21.5 47.9 8.6 57.7 42.3
March 25.3 26.1 38.9 9.7 64.0 36.0
April 26.7 29.3 35.5 8.5 67.9 32.1
May 25.9 30.5 33.4 10.2 67.5 32.5
June 24.1 31.9 32.4 11.6 65.0 35.0
July 23.0 32.3 32.3 12.4 62.6 37.4
August 24.7 35.3 33.8 6.2 67.6 32.4
September 26.7 38.7 34.2 0.4 73.3 26.7
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
Statistical Addendum
2009 Q3 33
Table 7
Contribution to monthly inflation growth
by group of goods and services (%)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food products Paid services Vegetables and fruit Core inflation Non-core inflation 2
January 13.4 8.3 69.0 9.3 29.5 70.5
February 17.1 10.6 59.7 12.6 34.2 65.8
March 31.4 22.7 24.5 21.4 70.7 29.3
April 30.0 24.6 22.3 23.1 69.6 30.4
May 8.4 19.5 20.6 51.6 34.4 65.6
June 15.8 10.7 17.0 56.5 35.1 64.9
July 55.9 15.7 17.4 10.9 79.2 20.8
August 724.2 250.9 165.2 -1,040.4 1,016.5 -916.5
September 99.9 33.4 14.7 -48.0 160.7 -60.7
October 78.5 18.2 1.2 2.1 99.3 0.7
November 43.6 23.6 13.3 19.5 67.8 32.2
December 39.2 21.6 19.2 20.0 56.7 43.3
January 18.9 9.3 58.1 13.7 36.2 63.8
February 36.8 17.4 28.5 17.3 64.9 35.1
March 43.2 22.6 12.8 21.4 72.2 27.8
April 43.5 22.0 17.6 16.9 70.3 29.7
May 39.1 20.1 18.9 21.9 65.2 34.8
June 42.7 26.5 28.7 2.2 74.5 25.5
July 69.6 47.5 45.8 -62.9 125.6 -25.6
August 122.9 59.3 67.5 -149.7 225.0 -125.0
September 69.7 29.4 34.5 -33.6 136.6 -36.6
October 69.5 32.2 -0.1 -1.7 116.9 -16.9
November 54.4 19.8 21.2 4.7 100.5 -0.5
December 50.8 5.9 34.3 8.9 91.7 8.3
January 15.6 11.3 66.2 7.0 42.3 57.7
February 31.2 35.9 22.0 10.9 79.5 20.5
March 35.2 40.0 11.7 13.1 83.0 17.0
April 37.5 53.9 9.3 -0.7 97.1 2.9
May 17.1 42.5 13.3 27.1 62.6 37.4
June 5.7 46.9 20.7 26.8 38.4 61.6
July 10.8 35.8 31.6 21.8 35.3 64.7
August 3
September 3
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
3 Owing to zero inflation in August and September 2009, estimates may vary.
34 2009 Q3
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Macroeconomic indicators
GDP
over period since start of year, billion rubles
2007 6,750 14,515 23,419 33,111
2008 8,891 19,084 30,724 41,668
2009 8,483 17,809
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2007 107.5 107.8 107.8 108.1
2008 108.7 108.0 107.3 105.6
2009 90.2 89.6
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2007 107.5 108.0 107.7 109.0
2008 108.7 107.5 106.0 101.2
2009 90.2 89.1
Industrial output indices
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2007 107.2 107.1 105.5 105.7
2008 106.2 105.5 104.7 93.9
2009 85.7 84.6 89.0
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2007 107.2 107.1 106.6 106.3
2008 106.2 105.8 105.4 102.1
2009 85.7 85.2 86.5
Agricultural output
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2007 103.5 104.4 103.2 103.2
2008 105.5 106.9 113.0 115.6
2009 102.3 100.9 98.0
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2007 103.5 104.1 103.5 103.4
2008 105.5 106.4 109.6 110.8
2009 102.3 101.4 99.2
Fixed capital investment
over period since start of year, billion rubles
2007 924.0 2,387.0 4,174.1 6,716.2
2008 1,355.4 3,411.7 5,826.7 8,764.9
2009 1,285.1 3,014.9 5,000.9
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2007 123.8 125.4 119.8 122.8
2008 123.6 117.4 111.7 97.7
2009 84.4 79.0 81.0
Retail trade turnover
over period since start of year, billion rubles
2007 2,257.8 4,800.4 7,599.6 10,869.0
2008 2,952.5 6,278.4 9,936.1 13,919.6
2009 3,307.6 6,801.8 10,463.3
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2007 114.8 115.8 116.8 116.8
2008 117.2 114.9 115.0 108.7
2009 99.9 94.4 90.6
Federal budget on accrual
basis, as of end of period
revenue
billion rubles
2007 1,421.9 3,245.7 5,087.6 7,781.1
2008 1,932.7 4,370.7 7,155.7 9,275.9
2009 1,732.7 3,172.2 5,114.4
as % of GDP
2007 21.1 22.3 21.7 23.5
2008 21.7 22.9 23.3 22.3
2009 20.4 17.8 17.9 1
expenditure
billion rubles
2007 945.6 2,169.7 3,464.3 5,986.6
2008 1,332.7 2,995.6 4,594.2 7,570.9
2009 1,762.4 3,893.8 6,441.7
as % of GDP
2007 14.0 14.9 14.8 18.1
2008 15.0 15.7 15.0 18.2
2009 20.8 21.9 22.6 1
Federal budget surplus (+)/deficit (-) on accrual
basis, as of end of period
billion rubles
2007 476.3 1,076.1 1,623.2 1,794.6
2008 600.0 1,375.1 2,561.5 1,705.1
2009 -29.7 -721.7 -1,327.2
as % of GDP
2007 7.1 7.4 6.9 5.4
2008 6.7 7.2 8.3 4.1
2009 -0.4 -4.1 -4.7 1
Table 8
Russia’s key macroeconomic and financial indicators
Note: T able 8 is based on data compiled by the Bank of Russia, the Federal State Statistics Service, the Ministry of Finance of the
Russian Federation and the Federal T reasury.
Statistical Addendum
2009 Q3 35
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Socio-economic indicators
Nominal imputed average
monthly per employee wage
rubles
2007 11,876 12,993 13,494 15,742
2008 15,424 16,962 17,556 18,966
2009 17,441 18,419 18,609
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2007 127.3 125.9 124.0 129.3
2008 128.0 129.2 129.0 119.5
2009 112.8 108.0 105.4
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2007 127.3 126.6 125.7 127.8
2008 128.0 128.6 128.7 127.2
2009 112.8 110.3 108.6
Real imputed average monthly per employee wage, as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2007 118.2 116.6 113.9 116.1
2008 113.4 112.5 112.2 105.0
2009 99.2 96.1 94.6
Household money income (per capita monthly average), rubles
2007 9,976.9 11,987.8 12,725.8 15,677.9
2008 12,374.8 14,876.2 15,866.8 17,396.6
2009 13,976.4 16,933.2 16,726.7
Household real disposable
money income
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2007 111.9 110.0 112.4 113.0
2008 108.0 106.2 106.2 94.2
2009 99.9 102.6 95.4
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2007 111.9 … … 112.1
2008 108.0 107.1 106.8 102.9
2009 99.9 101.3 99.1
Household spending, as % of
income
purchase of goods and services
2007 73.6 69.3 71.2 66.0
2008 76.5 71.6 73.4 71.7
2009 76.3 66.6 70.5
compulsory payments and contributions
2007 12.0 11.9 11.6 11.6
2008 12.7 12.5 12.7 14.1
2009 11.3 10.4 11.6
growth in savings
2007 10.2 9.0 8.1 11.0
2008 7.7 8.2 5.8 2.5
2009 8.7 17.1 12.3
foreign exchange purchase
2007 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1
2008 6.9 4.7 5.6 13.3
2009 10.3 3.5 6.0
cash on hand
2007 -1.0 4.6 3.9 6.3
2008 -3.8 3.0 2.5 -1.6
2009 -6.6 2.4 -0.4
Average imputed pension, total, rubles
2007 2,846 3,091 3,108 3,418
2008 3,823 4,044 4,383 4,545
2009 4,614 5,151 5,330
Real imputed pension
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2007 104.1 104.9 102.0 108.1
2008 119.0 113.9 122.7 116.9
2009 106.1 113.3 109.1
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2007 104.1 104.5 103.6 104.8
2008 119.0 116.4 118.6 118.1
2009 106.1 109.8 109.5
Total number of unemployed
(calculated using ILO
methodology)
million
2007 5.2 4.5 4.3 4.4
2008 5.1 4.3 4.5 5.4
2009 6.8 6.5 6.0
as % of economically active population
2007 7.0 6.0 5.7 5.8
2008 6.7 5.6 5.9 7.1
2009 9.1 8.6 7.8
Table 8 (continued)
36 2009 Q3
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Foreign economic activities
Price of Urals crude
over period since start of year, $/barrel
2007 54.0 59.7 64.0 69.5
2008 93.7 105.3 107.6 93.9
2009 43.2 50.5 56.3
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2007 93.5 97.7 102.4 114.1
2008 173.7 176.3 168.2 135.1
2009 46.1 48.0 52.3
Exports of goods
over period since start of year, $ billion
2007 71.7 155.4 244.9 354.4
2008 110.1 236.8 373.6 471.6
2009 57.4 125.7 206.3 2
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2007 106.5 108.0 109.5 116.8
2008 153.6 152.4 152.5 133.1
2009 52.1 53.1 55.2 2
Imports of goods
over period since start of year, $ billion
2007 42.8 95.5 153.9 223.5
2008 60.2 135.7 218.6 291.9
2009 38.4 82.3 131.5 2
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2007 138.6 137.1 137.0 136.0
2008 140.8 142.0 142.0 130.6
2009 63.7 60.6 60.2 2
Current account (over period since start of year), $ billion
2007 22.6 37.1 52.8 77.0
2008 38.0 64.3 93.9 102.4
2009 9.4 17.1 32.1 2
Private sector net capital outflow (inflow) (over period since start of year), $ billion
2007 13.8 68.1 60.9 82.4
2008 -23.7 17.0 -2.3 -132.8
2009 -35.2 -30.8 -62.2 2
Foreign investment in Russia’s non-financial sector
(Rosstat data)
over period since start of year, $ billion
2007 24.6 60.3 87.9 120.9
2008 17.3 46.5 75.8 103.8
2009 12.0 32.2 54.7
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2007 2.8 times 2.6 times 2.5 times 2.2 times
2008 70.1 77.1 86.2 85.8
2009 69.7 69.1 72.2
of which:
direct
over period since start of year, $ billion
2007 9.8 15.8 19.6 27.8
2008 5.6 11.1 19.2 27.0
2009 3.2 6.1 10.0
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2007 2.5 times 2.5 times 191.3 2.0 times
2008 57.2 70.0 97.7 97.2
2009 57.0 55.0 51.9
portfolio
over period since start of year, $ billion
2007 0.2 1.1 1.5 4.2
2008 0.1 1.2 1.3 1.4
2009 0.1 0.9 1.0
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2007 85.8 2.2 times 2.3 times 131.8
2008 62.5 104.4 83.7 33.7
2009 93.5 74.9 78.6
other
over period since start of year, $ billion
2007 14.7 43.4 66.7 89.0
2008 11.5 34.3 55.3 75.3
2009 8.7 25.2 43.7
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2007 3.1 times 2.6 times 2.7 times 2.3 times
2008 78.7 79.0 82.8 84.7
2009 75.6 73.5 79.1
Russia’s international reserves (as of end of period), $ billion
2007 338.8 405.8 425.4 478.8
2008 512.6 569.0 556.8 427.1
2009 383.9 412.6 413.4
Real ruble exchange rate indices, last month of
quarter (growth as % of December of previous
year) 3
ruble vs. US dollar
2007 2.3 3.8 8.1 15.0
2008 6.5 8.5 3.2 -1.1
2009 -15.4 -5.0 -3.9
ruble vs. euro
2007 3.1 4.1 4.5 5.8
2008 0.6 3.4 6.2 5.0
2009 -12.0 -7.0 -9.0
effective rate
2007 2.7 3.3 3.8 5.1
2008 1.5 3.3 3.0 4.3
2009 -10.0 -4.2 -5.6
Table 8 (continued)
Statistical Addendum
2009 Q3 37
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Financial market indicators (including Sberbank rates)
Average for period
Overnight interbank credit
rate, % p.a.
in rubles
2007 3.9 3.4 4.9 5.4
2008 3.9 4.1 6.0 8.6
2009 11.6 7.7 7.1
in US dollars
2007 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.5
2008 3.2 2.2 2.2 0.7
2009 0.2 0.2 0.2
OFZ yields 4, % p.a.
2007 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6
2008 6.7 6.9 7.5 8.7
2009 10.5 10.3 10.6
Interest rate on household
time deposits, % p.a.
up to 1 year in rubles
2007 7.4 7.3 7.0 7.2
2008 7.0 7.1 7.5 9.0
2009 10.0 10.8 10.7
over 1 year in rubles
2007 7.9 7.5 7.1 6.8
2008 7.4 8.0 8.5 9.1
2009 10.0 10.3 9.3
up to 1 year in US dollars
2007 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2
2008 5.1 5.8 5.3 6.5
2009 6.0 5.3 5.5
over 1 year in US dollars
2007 6.8 6.6 6.4 7.0
2008 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.8
2009 6.5 6.1 5.7
Interest rate on credit to non-
financial organisations, % p.a.
up to 1 year in rubles
2007 9.9 9.6 9.8 10.7
2008 10.9 11.2 12.0 14.9
2009 16.6 15.8 14.9
over 1 year in rubles
2007 12.1 11.5 11.0 11.4
2008 12.3 12.8 13.6 13.8
2009 15.1 16.2 15.8
up to 1 year in US dollars
2007 8.7 8.8 8.4 9.1
2008 8.1 8.0 8.9 10.9
2009 10.7 10.1 10.0
over 1 year in US dollars
2007 10.3 10.1 9.3 9.8
2008 9.3 9.9 9.4 11.3
2009 12.7 11.6 10.7
Interest rate on ruble-denominated promissory notes discounted by banks, % p.a.
2007 9.5 8.9 10.8 10.8
2008 10.7 11.0 12.1 14.1
2009 15.7 14.3 14.0
MICEX rate in ‘tomorrow’ trades, ruble/$
2007 26.3056 25.8599 25.5043 24.6525
2008 24.2286 23.6190 24.2718 27.2941
2009 34.4761 32.2032 31.3160
As of end of quarter
RTS index, points
2007 1,935.72 1,897.70 2,071.80 2,290.51
2008 2,053.93 2,303.34 1,211.84 631.89
2009 689.63 987.02 1,254.52
Refinance rate, % p.a.
2007 10.5 10.0 10.0 10.0
2008 10.25 10.75 11.0 13.0
2009 13.0 11.5 10.0
Table 8 (continued)
38 2009 Q3
Table 8 (end)
Year 1.01 1.04 1.07 1.10
Monetary indicators
M0, billion rubles
2007 2,785.2 2,741.2 3,027.5 3,220.9
2008 3,702.2 3,475.5 3,724.9 3,904.2
2009 3,794.8 3,278.3 3,522.5 3,485.6
M2, billion rubles
2007 8,995.8 9,412.6 10,857.7 11,494.0
2008 13,272.1 13,382.9 14,244.7 14,374.6
2009 13,493.2 12,111.7 13,161.0 13,649.5
Obligations included in broad money, billion rubles
2007 10,149.4 10,898.4 12,033.4 12,699.7
2008 14,636.7 14,918.3 15,926.6 16,067.8
2009 16,774.7 16,308.4 17,055.4 17,523.4 1
Net foreign assets, billion rubles
2007 6,881.5 7,927.4 8,704.7 9,038.1
2008 9,914.3 10,535.2 11,274.3 12,284.4
2009 12,214.9 12,883.8 13,046.0 13,234.6 1
Domestic claims, billion rubles
2007 5,799.2 5,798.6 6,331.1 6,771.7
2008 8,325.9 8,437.2 8,760.6 8,614.9
2009 10,645.1 10,307.4 11,076.4 11,716.8 1
Broad monetary base, billion rubles
2007 4,122.4 4,210.2 5,139.1 4,587.2
2008 5,513.3 4,871.4 5,422.9 5,317.8
2009 5,578.7 4,298.8 4,967.6 4,803.7
Balances of correspondent accounts, billion rubles
2007 638.1 518.1 528.7 576.3
2008 802.2 596.3 592.4 702.9
2009 1,027.6 431.7 471.4 545.4
M2 velocity
annual average
2007 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2
2008 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.1
2009 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 1
change since start of year, %
2007 -13.2 5 -6.0 -12.1 -16.1
2008 -18.6 5 -2.6 -3.0 -2.2
2009 -2.1 5 0.8 -0.1 -2.2 1
Monetisation of the economy (by M2 aggregate), %
2007 26.1 27.8 29.7 31.1
2008 32.1 32.9 33.1 32.8
2009 32.7 32.5 32.8 33.5 1
Money multiplier
by broad monetary base
2007 2.18 2.24 2.11 2.51
2008 2.41 2.75 2.63 2.70
2009 2.42 2.82 2.65 2.84
change since start of year, %
2007 5.2 5 2.5 -3.2 14.8
2008 10.3 5 14.1 9.1 12.3
2009 0.5 5 16.5 9.5 17.5
Foreign exchange rates
rubles per US dollar
2007 26.33 26.01 25.82 24.95
2008 24.55 23.50 23.41 25.37
2009 29.39 33.90 31.04 30.01
rubles per euro
2007 34.70 34.69 34.72 35.35
2008 35.93 37.09 36.97 36.50
2009 41.43 44.89 43.85 43.89
1 Preliminary data.
2 Estimate.
3 (+) signifies appreciation of the ruble, (-) signifies depreciation of the ruble.
4 OFZ effective market portfolio indicator.
5 Relative to beginning of previous year.
Statistical Addendum
2009 Q3 39
Table 9
Bank of Russia interest rates in 2009 (% p.a.)
Instrument Liquidity provision/
absorption period
Prior to
2.02
Rate changed since:
2.02 10.02 24.04 14.05 5.06 13.07 10.08 15.09 30.09 30.10
Providing liquidity at offered bids (including by auction)
Repo operations 1
1 day 9.00 9.00 10.00 9.50 9.00 8.50 8.00 7.75 7.50 7.25 6.75
1 week 9.50 9.50 10.50 10.00 9.50 9.00 8.50 8.25 8.00 7.25 6.75
3 months 10.50 10.50 11.50 11.00 10.75 10.25 9.75 9.50 9.25 8.75 8.25
6 months 11.25 11.25 12.25 11.75 11.25 10.75 10.25 10.00 9.75 9.25 8.75
12 months 11.75 11.75 12.75 12.25 11.75 11.25 10.75 10.50 10.25 9.75 9.25
Currency swap operations 2 1 day 13.00 13.00 13.00 12.50 12.00 11.50 11.00 10.75 10.50 10.00 9.50
Unsecured loans up to 6 months Minimum rate is set when auction is announced
Lombard loans 1, 3
2 weeks 9.50 9.50 10.50 10.00 9.50 9.00 8.50 8.25 8.00 7.25 6.75
3 months 10.50 10.50 11.50 11.00 10.75 10.25 9.75 9.50 9.25 8.75 8.25
6 months 11.25 11.25 12.25 11.75 11.25 10.75 10.25 10.00 9.75 9.25 8.75
12 months 11.75 11.75 12.75 12.25 11.75 11.25 10.75 10.50 10.25 9.75 9.25
Providing liquidity at fixed rates
Overnight loans 3, 4 1 day 13.00 13.00 13.00 12.50 12.00 11.50 11.00 10.75 10.50 10.00 9.50
Lombard loans 3
1 day 10.00 11.00 12.00 11.50 11.00 10.50 10.00 9.75 9.50 9.00 8.50
7 days 10.00 11.00 12.00 11.50 11.00 10.50 10.00 9.75 9.50 9.00 8.50
30 days 10.25 11.00 12.00 11.50 11.00 10.50 10.00 9.75 9.50 9.00 8.50
Repo operations
1 day 10.00 11.00 12.00 11.50 11.00 10.50 10.00 9.75 9.50 9.00 8.50
7 days 10.00 11.00 12.00 11.50 11.00 10.50 10.00 9.75 9.50 9.00 8.50
1 year – – – – – 11.25 10.75 10.50 10.25 9.75 9.25
Loans secured by “non-market” assets
or guarantees 4
up to 90 days 11.00 11.25 12.00 11.50 11.00 10.50 10.00 9.75 9.50 9.00 8.50
91 to 180 days 12.00 12.00 12.50 12.00 11.50 11.00 10.50 10.25 10.00 9.50 9.00
181 to 365 days 13.00 13.00 13.00 12.50 12.00 11.50 11.00 10.75 10.50 10.00 9.50
Absorbing liquidity at fixed rates
Deposit operations
Tom-next, spot-next
and demand 6.75 6.75 7.75 7.25 6.75 6.25 5.75 5.50 5.25 4.75 4.25
1 week, spot-week 7.25 7.25 8.25 7.75 7.25 6.75 6.25 6.00 5.75 5.25 4.75
1 Minimum interest rate set by Bank of Russia Board of Directors.
2 Interest rate set on the ruble part when determining the minimum offered swap difference.
3 Pursuant to Bank of Russia Regulation No. 236-P of August 4, 2003.
4 Pursuant to Bank of Russia Regulation No. 312-P of November 12, 2007.
40 2009 Q3
Table 10
Bank required reserve ratios (%)
Required reserve ratio for bank obligations
to non-resident banks in Russian and
foreign currency
Required reserve ratio for obligations to
individuals in Russian currency
Required reserve ratio for other bank
obligations in Russian and foreign currency
July 1, 2007 – October 10, 2007 4.5 4.0 4.5
October 11, 2007 – January 14, 2008 3.5 3.0 3.5
January 15, 2008 – February 29, 2008 4.5 4.0 4.5
March 1, 2008 – June 30, 2008 5.5 4.5 5.0
July 1, 2008 – August 31, 2008 7.0 5.0 5.5
September 1, 2008 – September 17, 2008 8.5 5.5 6.0
September 18, 2008 – October 14, 2008 4.5 1.5 2.0
October 15, 2008 – April 30, 2009 0.5 0.5 0.5
May 1, 2009 – May 31, 2009 1.0 1.0 1.0
June 1, 2009 – June 30, 2009 1.5 1.5 1.5
July 1, 2009 – July 31, 2009 2.0 2.0 2.0
August 1, 2009 – 2.5 2.5 2.5
© The Central Bank of the Russian Federation, 2009
Research and Information Department