CBR Quarterly Inflation Review - Q2 2010
Central bank: cbr | Type: quarterly_review | Date: 2010-06-30

THE CENTRAL BANK
OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
(BANK OF RUSSIA)
Quarterly
Inflation
Review
2010 Q2
Research and Information Department
The electronic version of Quarterly Inflation Review is available on the Bank of Russia's website :

Contents
Introduction. .................................................................................................................3
Inflation.Dynamics. ........................................................................................................4
Consumer prices ....................................................................................................................... 4
Housing prices .......................................................................................................................... 6
Producer prices ......................................................................................................................... 6
Foreign trade ............................................................................................................................ 7
Demand ................................................................................................................................. 11
Supply .................................................................................................................................... 13
Labour market ......................................................................................................................... 13
Monetary.Conditions...................................................................................................15
Exchange rate ......................................................................................................................... 15
Interest rates ........................................................................................................................... 17
Asset prices ............................................................................................................................ 21
Monetary aggregates ............................................................................................................... 21
Credit aggregates .................................................................................................................... 23
Statistical.Addendum.................................................................................................. 25
2010 Q2 3
Introduction
At the beginning of 2010 output began to
pick up in the Russian economy after the decline in
2009. Production growth was registered in most
of the major economic activity categories. The ex-
pansion of domestic demand became the princi -
pal factor of this growth in 2010 Q2: growth in
consumer demand accelerated and fixed capital
investment started to increase. However , demand
seemed to remain below the potential output lev-
el.
As consumer demand remained low and the
ruble appreciated in 2010 Q2, the slowing of in -
flation, registered since 2009 Q2, continued. It
is believed that 2010 inflation will be below the
target level envisaged in Guidelines for the Single
State Monetary Policy for 2010.
The nascent tendency towards economic
growth, the reduction of inflation, the rally of the
ruble and the increased replacement of foreign
currency from circulation preconditioned the rise
in demand for the domestic currency. The annual
rates of money supply (M2) growth quickened
in 2010 Q2, but seasonally adjusted, they were
slower than in 2010 Q1. Growth in the money
supply was stimulated significantly by the Bank of
Russia interventions on the domestic forex mar -
ket and the partial financing of the federal budget
deficit from the Reserve Fund. Although growth in
banking sector net foreign assets was the major
source of expansion of the broad money in H1
2010, the recovery of bank lending activity was
also a significant positive factor. Growth in lending
resumed in 2010 Q2 against the background of
the significant increase in liquidity on the money
market and the expansion of the deposit base of
the banks. However , this process was hampered
by banks’ desire to build up alternative (more liq-
uid and less risky) kinds of assets. Lending will fur-
ther expand as the consequence of the measures
carried out to ease the monetary policy and also
as a result of the expected further rise in business
activity and demand for loans.
In the 2nd quarter of the year the Bank of Rus-
sia continued to implement an accommodative
monetary policy aimed at preserving easy mone -
tary conditions. In April-June the upper limit of the
Bank of Russia interest rate band (overnight credit
rate) was lowered by half a percentage point to
7.75% and the lower limit (standard overnight
deposit rate) was cut by a quarter of a percentage
point to 2.5%. In June and July the Bank of Russia
left its interest rates unchanged and took a series
of decisions to make it more difficult for credit in-
stitutions to take unsecured and long-term loans
and gradually replace them by conventional tools
used to provide liquidity.
Major interest rates on the Russian financial
market continued to decline in 2010 Q2, as the
Bank of Russia cut its interest rates and banking
sector total non-cash reserves increased.
The current economic recovery has no effect
on inflation yet because of the persisting nega -
tive output gap. Consumer price growth remains
moderate. The significant reduction in the rates
of money supply growth in 2008 and the first
half of 2009 continued to make its contribution
to the slowing of growth in the general level of
prices in 2010. At the same time, the current easy
monetary conditions and the official government
policy of allowing a federal budget deficit do not
preclude the growth of inflation risks at the end of
2010 and in 2011.
4 2010 Q2
inflation rate (this compares with 4.8 percentage
points, or 65.0%, in 2009 H1).
Food prices excluding vegetable and
fruit prices rose by 2.4% in 2010 H1 as against
5.2% in 2009 H1. The increase in the prices of
these food products accounted for an estimated
0.8 percentage points, or 19.0% of the inflation
rate (this compares with an estimated 1.8 per-
centage points, or 24.1%, in 2009 H1).
The most significant increase in food prices
excluding vegetable and fruit prices was regis -
tered in 2010 H1 in alcoholic beverages (5.7%
as against 6.7% a year earlier), butter (5.3% as
against 0.1%) and cereals and legumes (4.5%
Inflation Dynamics
Consumer prices
According to the Federal State Statistics Ser -
vice (Rosstat), consumer prices rose by 4.4% in
the first six months of 2010, a decrease of 3.0
percentage points on the same period last year. In
June consumer prices went up 5.8% year on year
and in the first half of the year they increased by
6.6% as compared with the first half of last year.
The slowing of inflation in 2010 H1 was prin-
cipally the result of core inflation, which stood at
2.0% against 6.0% in 2009 H1. The rise in the
prices of goods and services taken into account
when calculating core inflation accounted for an
estimated 1.6 percentage points, or 37.2% of the
Consumer price inflation (%)
Growth (June 2010
on December 2009)
Growth (June 2009
on December 2008)
Prices of goods and services, total: 4.4 7.4 Slowing of growth by 3.0 percentage points
of which:
– food prices 5.4 7.0 Slowing of growth by 1.6 percentage points
– food prices, excluding vegetable and fruit prices 2.4 5.2 Slowing of growth by 2.8 percentage points
– non-food prices 1.9 6.3 Slowing of growth by 4.4 percentage points
– prices of paid services provided to households 6.4 9.6 Slowing of growth by 3.2 percentage points
Prices of goods and services included in core inflation calculation 2.0 6.0 Slowing of growth by 4.0 percentage points
Source: Rosstat.
Inflation Dynamics
2010 Q2 5
as against 2.8%). At the same time, there was a
fall (by 2.7-14.5%) in the prices of pasta, eggs
and sugar. Other food price increases ranged from
0.3% to 3.6%. In January-June 2009 major food
price increases ranged from 1.9% to 28.2%. Pric-
es of milk and dairy products, sunflower oil and
eggs declined.
Vegetable and fruit prices gained 33.8%
in 2010 H1, an increase of 9.8 percentage points
on the same period last year. It has been estimated
that the rise in vegetable and fruit prices account-
ed for 1.2 percentage points, or 27.7%, of the
overall increase in consumer prices (this compares
with 0.9 percentage points, or 11.6%, in 2009
H1).
Overall food prices rose by 5.4% in 2010
H1 as against 7.0% in 2009 H1.
Growth in non-food prices slowed to 1.9%
in 2010 H1 from 6.3% in 2009 H1 and it has
been estimated that this growth accounted for
0.7 percentage points, or 15.8%, of the inflation
rate. In 2009 H1 it accounted for 2.4 percentage
points, or 31.9%. The most significant increase
was registered in the prices of tobacco products
(by 9.4% as against 13.1% in 2009 H1). Prices of
fabrics, clothes, underwear , knitted garments and
footwear rose moderately (by 2.9% at the most).
The price of petrol went up by 2.3%, whereas the
prices of TV sets and radios and medicine prices
declined by 1.7% and 3.6%, respectively (in
2009 H1 petrol prices went down by 2.8%, while
medicine prices soared by 18.3%).
Prices of paid services provided to house-
holds gained 6.4% in 2010 H1 as against 9.6%
in 2009 H1 and it has been estimated that their
increase accounted for 1.7 percentage points, or
37.5%, of the headline consumer price growth
(this compares with 2.4 percentage points, or
32.4%, in 2009 H1).
Growth in the administered service prices
slowed by 2.4% in 2010 H1 from 2009 H1 and
stood at an estimated 10.9%. Housing and utility
prices grew by 11.9% as against 17.7% in 2009
H1, whereas passenger transport fares rose by
7.0% as against 6.3%.
Growth in the prices of most of the services
taken into account when calculating core inflation
slowed down in 2010 H1. Foreign travel became
cheaper by 2.0%, whereas in the same period last
year foreign travel prices rose by 9.5%.
2010 H1 service price growth exceeded
overall commodity price growth by 2.7 percent-
age points (this compares with 2.9 percentage
points in 2009 H1).
According to Rosstat data, in 2010 H1 con -
sumer price growth was slower than in 2009 H1
in all Federal Districts.
Estimates show that in 2010 H1 there was
a slight increase in the differences between the
constituent territories of the Russian Federation
in terms of the cost of a fixed set of goods and
services used by the Federal State Statistics Service
for interregional comparisons of the purchasing
power of the population. Specifically, in 2010 H1
Food price inflation (%)
Growth (June 2010
on December 2009)
Growth (June 2009
on December 2008)
Food products 5.4 7.0 Slowing of growth by 1.6 percentage points
Bread and bakery products 0.9 1.9 Slowing of growth by 1.0 percentage point
Cereals and legumes 4.5 2.8 Acceleration of growth by 1.7 percentage points
Pasta -2.7 4.1
Meat and poultry 1.3 4.5 Slowing of growth by 3.2 percentage points
Fish and seafood 0.5 13.3 Slowing of growth by 12.8 percentage points
Milk and dairy products 3.6 -0.6
Butter 5.3 0.1 Acceleration of growth by 5.2 percentage points
Sunflower oil 0.3 -14.4
Granulated sugar -3.4 28.2
Vegetables and fruit 33.8 24.0 Acceleration of growth by 9.8 percentage points
Alcoholic beverages 5.7 6.7 Slowing of growth by 1.0 percentage point
Source: Rosstat.
6 2010 Q2
the regional difference ratio 1 rose to 42.5% as
against 42.3% in 2009 H1.
Rates of growth in food prices excluding veg-
etable and fruit prices were roughly the same in
all federal districts in 2010 H1 (2.1% to 3.4%).
This range of price changes was somewhat nar -
rower in the group of non-food products (1.2%
to 2.4%).
Rates of growth in vegetable and fruit prices,
including potato prices, differed significantly by
region. For example, in the Far Eastern Federal
District vegetable and fruit prices rose by 15.2%,
whereas in the Southern Federal District they grew
by 41.3%.
In 2010 H1 the rates of growth in service
prices changed within the 6.3-8.7% range in the
federal districts and were markedly slower than in
2009 H1.
Housing prices
In June 2010 housing prices on the primary
market rose by 0.1% as compared to December
2009 and housing price growth on the secondary
market stood at 1.4%. In 2009 H1 housing prices
fell by 4.5% on the primary market and by 7.4%
on the secondary market.
In 2010 H1 housing prices were affected by
the slight rise in activity on the real estate market
amid the contraction of commissioned housing.
1 The regional difference ratio is calculated by the Bank of
Russia as the difference between the cost of a fixed set of
goods and services in the most expensive and cheapest re -
gions relative to the national average cost of the set.
Specifically, in 2010 H1 commissioned housing
decreased by 0.1% as compared to 2009 H1 and
a year earlier the respective figure was 0.3%.
Producer prices
Industrial producer prices rose by 5.5%
in 2010 H1 as against 10.0% in 2009 H1. This
downturn was largely the result of the price fall
in the mining sector. In the first six months of this
year producer prices in the mining sector declined
by 2.7%, whereas in the same period of 2009
they rose by 38.7%. Fuel and energy producer
prices went down by 4.8%, whereas in 2009 H1
they grew by 49.6%.
In 2010 H1 price growth in the production
and distribution of electricity, gas and water stood
at 11.2% (in 2009 H1 it was higher by 6.6 per-
centage points).
In 2010 H1 producer prices in the manu -
facturing sector rose by 8.6%, an increase of
5.4 percentage points on the same period last
year. The biggest manufacturing sector producer
price increases were registered in the production
of coke (87.3%), metals (20.1%) and chemicals
(13.2%) (in January-June 2009 producer prices
in these types of economic activity decreased by
1.4-20.6%). Petroleum products producer prices
grew by a moderate 8.5% as against 26.8% a
year earlier. Growth in consumer goods producer
prices slowed down. For example, growth in the
producer prices of foodstuffs, including beverag-
es, and tobacco products slowed by 3.5 percent-
age points from 2009 H1 down to 1.1% and in
Inflation Dynamics
2010 Q2 7
Agricultural producer prices slipped by
0.3% in 2010 H1 against a drop of 2.0% in
the corresponding period of 2009. Crop grower
prices edged up 0.9%, whereas in 2009 H1 they
dropped by 0.1%. At the same time, grain grower
prices fell by 2.1%, whereas sunflower prices in -
creased by 14.7% (in 2009 H1 crop grower pric-
es were up 0.3%, whereas sunflower prices were
down 3.2%). Livestock prices became cheaper
by 1.0% (in 2009 H1 – by 3.4%). Meanwhile,
milk prices rose by 6.4%, whereas egg prices fell
by 17.5%. In 2009 H1 these prices were down
by 13.6% and 25.8%, respectively. Livestock
and poultry prices dropped by 1.7%, whereas in
2009 H1 they rose by 6.5%.
Foreign trade
In 2010 Q2 the price situation on the major
world markets for Russian exports 2 was slightly
better overall than in the previous quarter. At the
same time, prices changed both ways throughout
the quarter. In April prices of most export prod -
ucts except natural gas reached the highest level
since October 2008, whereas in May and June
prices mostly declined. As a result, in 2010 H1
world energy prices were on average almost one-
2 Average prices are based on data reported daily by the fol-
lowing news agencies and exchanges: Reuters for oil, the Fi-
nancial Times for petroleum products (petrol, diesel and fuel
oil) and the London Metal Exchange for non-ferrous metals
(aluminium, copper and nickel). Ferrous metal prices have
been gauged on the basis of price indices, while prices of
natural gas and other commodities are monthly averages
published by the World Bank and the IMF .
the production of textile and clothing by 1.5 per-
centage points down to 4.0%. Producer prices
of leather , leather goods and footwear grew by
2.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from
2009 H1.
Freight transportation charges rose by
30.5% in 2010 H1 and freight railway charges
were up 9.4%. The respective percentages in
2009 H1 were up 16.4% and 4.7%.
Communications fees for corporate en -
tities increased by 5.2% in 2010 H1 as against
2.1% in 2009 H1.
Building materials producer prices went
up by 3.6% in 2010 H1, whereas in the same pe-
riod last year they fell by 1.8%.
8 2010 Q2
Petroleum products price trend mostly fol -
lowed that of the oil price. In 2010 H1 petroleum
product prices, just as oil prices, rose by 50% on
average year on year. The price of petrol went up
by 46%, diesel 43% and fuel oil 58% (in 2009
H1 prices of these products fell by 47%, 55% and
43%, respectively).
The recovery of natural gas prices in Europe,
which began in August 2009, continued in 2010
Q1, but in 2010 Q2 natural gas prices fell slightly
because of the seasonal contraction of demand.
As a result, in 2010 H1 the price of natural gas in
Europe remained by 19% lower than in the same
period of the previous year (in 2009 H1 it was by
13% lower than in 2008 H1).
The rise in the price of coal, which started
on the world market in 2009 H2, continued in
2010 H1. In 2010 H1 the price of coal was by
41% higher than in the same period of the previ-
ous year (in 2009 H1 it was by 45% lower than
in 2008 H1).
The gradual recovery of world demand for
steel amid the rise in the price of raw materials
(iron ore) predetermined this year’s growth in
third higher than in 2009 H1, while non-energy
prices gained 6%.
The rise in the price of oil on the world mar -
ket was largely the result of the expectations of
growth in demand amid the increased output
in some countries, continued economic growth
in China and the repeated raising of forecasts of
the world demand for oil in 2010-2011. As a re-
sult, early in May the price of Russian crude Urals
topped $ 85 per barrel and Brent rose to $ 88 per
barrel. In April 2010 the average world market
price of Russian oil was $ 82.1 per barrel. The fall
in oil prices in May and June to $ 74 per barrel on
average was mostly connected with the risks cre-
ated by the debt crisis in some EU countries, un -
certainty about the US economic outlook, weak
demand for energy in Europe and the apprecia -
tion of the US dollar. Despite the price fall in May
and June, in 2010 Q2 the price of Urals stood at
$ 76.6 per barrel, an increase of 2.1% on 2010
Q1. In 2010 H1 the world market price of Rus -
sian oil rose by 50% year on year and stood at
$ 75.8 per barrel (in 2009 H1 it was more than
twice lower than in 2008 H1).
Inflation in countries trading with Russia1
Inflation in the countries carrying much weight in the structure of Russian imports slowed to 1.6% in 2010
H1 (June against December of the previous year) from 2.1% in 2009 H1. This was the result of the significant
slowing of inflation in some of Russia’s leading trading partners, such as the United States, Ukraine, Belarus,
Poland and others. German inflation remained unchanged from 2009 H1 and most of the major exporters of
goods to the Russian market registered moderate
price growth. China and Japan, which registered
disinflation in 2009 H1, in 2010 H1 experienced a
slight price upturn. Inflation accelerated significantly
in Turkey.
The persistent significant negative output gaps
in foreign economies amid the fall in the prices of fuel,
energy and other resources that began on the world
market since the middle of Q2 2010 determined the
moderate rate of inflation. The slowing of inflation
in the United States was largely the result of the sig-
nificant slowing of energy price growth. Instability
in the US economy at the early stage of its recovery
from the recession determined the low level of core
inflation. Relatively low rates of growth administered
in housing and utility prices had a restraining effect
on consumer price increases in Ukraine and Belarus.
The acceleration of energy price growth in eurozone
countries, caused by the euro’s depreciation against
the US dollar, was largely offset by the low rates of
core inflation.
1 According to data reported by national statistics agencies of Russia’s trading partners.
Inflation Dynamics
2010 Q2 9
the prices of ferrous metal products. However , in
2010 H1 ferrous metal prices remained by 8%
lower than in the same period of the previous year
(in 2009 H1 they were by 4% lower than in 2008
H1).
The rise in the world market prices of non-
ferrous metals, which began in 2009 Q2 amid
increased investor and industrial demand, espe -
cially in China, continued until May 2010, as was
the case with the oil market. As a result of the fall
in ferrous metal prices in May and June, in 2010
Q2 the price of aluminium and copper declined
quarter on quarter , whereas the price of nickel
increased quarter on quarter. In 2010 H1 the
price of aluminium was 1.5 times higher than in
2009 H1 and the price of copper and nickel was
1.8 times higher (in 2009 H1 the price of alumin-
ium and nickel fell 2.0 times and nickel 2.3 times).
The price trend of other raw materials ex -
ported by Russia was also affected by the situa -
tion in the world economy. The first four months
of 2010 saw the resumption of growth in timber
prices, which fell in May and June. Mineral fertilis-
er prices continued to decline throughout 2010
H1 because of the contraction of global demand.
World market prices of foodstuffs and ag -
ricultural raw materials 3 changed both ways in
2010 H1. In January the price of sugar reached
its high, but then it started to fall rapidly and this
3 Average sugar prices have been calculated on the basis of
data compiled daily by the London Commodity Exchange,
while other prices are monthly averages published by the
World Bank and the IMF .
decline continued until June. Compared to Janu -
ary, in May the price of raw sugar fell by a factor of
1.9 and refined sugar by a factor of 1.6. Despite
June price growth, in 2010 Q2 the price of raw
sugar fell by 37% quarter on quarter and refined
sugar was down by 29%. The main reasons for
this price change on the world sugar market were
the raising of the harvest forecasts and expecta -
tions of growth in sugar exports from Brazil and
India in the 2010 / 2011 agricultural year. The in-
creased tendency towards the sugar price down-
turn was also connected with the US dollar’s ap -
preciation. Despite the fall, the level of sugar pric-
es on the world market remained high. In 2010
H1 the price of sugar was by 50% higher than in
the corresponding period of the previous year (in
2009 H1 it was almost 20% higher than in the
same period of 2008).
In 2010 H1 grain prices, except barley pric -
es, continued to decline mostly because of the
considerable world stocks and the raising of the
estimates of carryover grain stocks and growth in
grain exports from Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan,
Turkey and other regions. The price of barley re -
mained stable throughout 2010 H1. As a result,
in 2010 H1 the price of US wheat fell by 23% and
maize by 6.5% year on year and Canadian wheat
was down 17%, whereas the price of barley was
18% higher (in 2009 H1 these prices were down
36%, 28%, 41% and 46%, respectively).
The expansion by the Asian rice-producing
countries of the crop areas and the raising of crop
yields for the purpose of ensuring food security,
10 2010 Q2
poultry market was impacted by poultry produc -
tion growth in Brazil and China, the replacement
of poultry imports by domestic products in Rus -
sia, the fall in demand in some countries and the
lowering of demand growth forecasts for Asia and
the Middle East. In 2010 H1 beef and pork prices
rose by 30% on average, as compared with the
same period of the previous year , whereas poultry
prices declined by 2% (in 2009 H1 the price of
beef was down 17% and pork 8%, while poultry
prices rose by 6%).
World market prices for vegetable oil mostly
increased in 2010 H1. Palm oil prices rose on ex-
pectations of a fall in output in Malaysia, the larg-
est exporter of palm oil to the world market, and
growth in demand in China. However , in 2010 Q2
the price of palm oil grew slightly quarter on quar-
ter. In addition, the expectations of good soya
the expectations of bumper rice harvest and the
increased rice exports by most of these countries
led to a price fall. In 2010 H1 the price of rice was
13% lower than in the same period of the previ -
ous year (in 2009 H1 they were 15% lower).
As the world is gradually recovering from the
economic crisis and the situation is improving in
the major meat-importing countries, the con -
sumption of meat is increasing, especially in Asian
countries. Meanwhile, the world’s livestock popu-
lation is decreasing. Demand for beef is rising rap-
idly in the Republic of Korea, Hong Kong, Japan
and Malaysia. Livestock prices have been rising
on expectation of a contraction of beef exports
from Brazil and Argentina. Growth in demand for
pork in Asian countries, especially China, amid
the restrictions placed on pork exports in some
countries affected pork price dynamics. The world
International trade
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has estimated that in 2010 H1 the world consumption of oil in -
creased by 2.6%, as compared with the same period last year, mainly owing to growth in consumption in Chi -
na. Oil consumption in Europe contracted by 3.1%. The average price of Brent, Dubai and WTI crude rose to
$ 77.7 per barrel in 2010 H1 from $ 52.1 per barrel in 2009 H1 (by 49.2%).
According to EUROSTAT data, EU imports of mineral fuel and lubricants declined by 14% in volume in Jan-
uary-May 2010, as compared with the same period of the previous year. The average unit cost of their imports
increased by more than 30% as a result of the rise in the world market price of oil and petroleum products from
May 2009 to April 2010 and the weakening of the euro from November 2009. The contract price of Russian
natural gas exported to Germany in 2010 H1 was on average by 30% lower than in 2009 H1.
According to the IEA’s forecast, world oil consumption will rise by 2.1% in 2010, whereas in Europe oil
consumption may decline by 1.4%. According to the IMF’s June 2010 forecast, the average price of the three
brands of crude in 2010 will be $ 75.3 per barrel, an increase of 21.8% on the 2009 average price. The IMF
expects international trade in goods and services to grow by 9.0% in 2010.
Inflation Dynamics
2010 Q2 11
bean harvests in some regions of the world con -
tained growth in prices of vegetable oil. In 2010
H1 palm oil was 20% more expensive than in the
same period of the previous year (in 2009 H1 it
was 80% cheaper than in the same period of the
previous year).
In 2010 H1 the terms of Russia’s trade im -
proved compared to the same period of 2009, as
export prices grew considerably faster than im -
port prices.
In 2010 H1 the trade surplus4 doubled com-
pared to the same period of 2009 and totalled
$ 84 billion, as exports of goods grew consider -
ably faster than imports.
Demand
Domestic demand
Growth in domestic demand accelerated
significantly in 2010 Q2 owing to the rise in con-
sumer and investor activity.
Wage and pension increases amid the slow -
ing of inflation led to growth in household real
disposable income. In 2010 H1 real disposable
income increased by 4.8%, whereas in 2009 H1
it grew by 2.1%. In 2010 Q2 the public propen -
sity for consumption was higher than in the same
period of 2009, but in the first half of this year
it was lower than in the first half of last year. In
2010 H1 the spending on goods and services
in the structure of household sector money in -
come use contracted by 0.8 percentage points to
70.3% and spending on the purchase of foreign
currency fell by 3.3 percentage points to 3.2%.
The public propensity for organised savings was
15.8% as against 13.3% in 2009 H1, with de -
posits and securities accounting for 7.5%.
Household sector spending on final con -
sumption increased by 0.3% in 2010 Q1. The
improved situation on the labour market and the
revival of consumer lending stimulated growth in
real consumer spending, which rose by 3.1% in
2010 H1, as compared with the same period of
the previous year. The 2nd quarter of the year saw
an increase in non-food retail trade turnover. In
2010 H1 retail trade turnover grew by 3.4% and
the value of paid services provided to households
increased by 0.3%.
4 According to the balance of payments estimate as of
July 2, 2010.
In 2010 Q1 the share of imported goods in
the retail trade turnover contracted by one per -
centage point year on year , to 44%. The share of
food imports remained unchanged at 35%.
As domestic demand recovered, growth in
imports of goods accelerated in 2010 Q2, mostly
as a result of the expansion of import volumes.
The rise in import prices was moderate. Imports
of investment goods grew more slowly than con-
sumer goods. In 2010 H1 import of goods rose
by 26.4% as compared with 2009 H1.
In 2010 Q1 government expenditures on fi-
nal consumption increased by 1.8%. According
to the Federal Treasury’s data, budget expendi -
tures decreased to 35.1% of GDP in 2010 H1 as
against 37.4% in 2009 H1. Non-interest expen -
ditures accounted for 34.4% of GDP as against
36.8% in the same period a year earlier. This dy -
namics is chiefly the result of the scaling down of
the anti-crisis measures implemented by the gov-
ernment.
In 2010 H1 the general government’s bud -
get has a surplus of 1.3% of GDP , whereas a def-
icit of 3.3% of GDP was registered in the same
period of 2009. The Budget Policy Guidelines for
2011 and the Period of 2012 and 2013 envisage
a budget deficit of 5.7% of GDP in 2010, which
represents a decrease from the previous year’s
deficit of 7.1% of GDP . The improvement of the
Russian budget system, which may continue in
the medium term, reflects the Russian govern -
ment’s efforts to tighten the fiscal policy for the
12 2010 Q2
sake of macroeconomic stability and long-term
sustainability of government finance.
Gross fixed capital formation contracted by
7.1% in 2010 Q1, but as the financial situation of
enterprises improved significantly and borrowed
funds became more accessible, investor activity
increased in 2010 Q2. In 2010 H1 fixed capital
investment expanded by 1.3% year on year.
Investments in machinery, equipment and
transport vehicles accounted for about a third
of total investments in 2010 Q1. At the same
time, the share of investments made to acquire
imported equipment contracted from 2009 Q1
by 5.1 percentage points to 20.4%. Imports of
machinery, equipment and transport vehicles in -
creased by 10.7% in 2010 Q1.
The share of own funds used to finance fixed
capital investment expanded in 2010 Q1, but
54.9% of these funds were borrowed. Bank loans
accounted for 9.5%, a contraction by 3.9 per-
centage points from 2009 Q1.
As exports grew faster than imports in real
terms, net exports of goods and services in -
creased by 37.8% in 2010 Q1, whereas in 2010
Q2 net export growth was estimated as negative.
Foreign demand
Growth in foreign demand for Russian
products slowed down in 2010 Q2. Russian ex -
port volumes contracted quarter on quarter. The
significant increase in exports in 2010 H1 (to
$ 188.2 billion5) was largely the result of the rise
in prices. Growth in exports to the Asia-Pacific
Economic Co-operation member countries ac -
celerated, especially to Japan, Republic of Korea
and the United States (growth in exports to China
slowed down). Although growth in exports to
the EU member countries slowed down, it was
bigger than overall export growth. The principal
importers of Russian products were the Nether -
5 According to the balance of payments estimate as of 2 July
2010.
Economic growth in foreign countries1
GDP in the group of countries carrying much weight in the structure of Russian exports increased by 3.0%
in 2010 H1, as compared with the same period of the previous year, according to a preliminary estimate (a
contraction of 5.3% was registered in 2009 H1). Preliminary data show that GDP grew by 2.8% in the United
States, by 1.2% in the eurozone and by 11.1% in China. The recovery of the foreign economies was facilitated
by the favourable dynamics of industrial product stocks and growth in consumer demand. There was a rise in
investor activity, especially in 2010 Q2.
Russia’s leading trading partners are expected to continue to register economic growth until the end of
2010 and in 2011. The IMF forecast published in June 2010 says that the world production of goods and ser -
vices will increase by 4.6% this year (in 2009 it declined by an estimated 0.6%). In 2010 GDP growth is forecast
at 3.3% in the United States, at 1.0% in the eurozone and at 10.5% in China. However, the economies of Rus-
sia’s trading partners may face increased risks because of the persistently weak consumption and investment
dynamics amid the lack of any serious capabilities to stimulate consumption and investment by monetary or fis-
cal policy tools.
1 According to data compiled by the national statistics agencies of Russia’s trading partners.
GDP consumption
(growth as % of corresponding period of previous year)
2009 2010
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 full-year Q1
GDP -9.4 -10.8 -7.7 -3.8 -7.9 2.9
Final consumption -1.4 -4.9 -7.5 -6.3 -5.1 0.7
Of which:
– households -2.6 -7.5 -10.8 -9.4 -7.7 0.3
Gross capital formation -49.7 -50.1 -31.6 -21.9 -37.4 -2.4
Net exports 16.4 66.6 108.1 61.0 56.8 37.8
Source: Rosstat.
Inflation Dynamics
2010 Q2 13
lands, Italy and Germany. Exports to CIS member
countries, except Ukraine, increased slightly, es -
pecially to the EurAsEc member countries (there
was a contraction in exports to some CIS member
countries). In 2010 H1 exports of oil, natural gas,
petroleum products, except petrol, ferrous metals
and some other commodities grew in volume as
compared with the same period of the previous
year.
Supply
The first half of 2010 saw a rise in output in
most of the key types of economic activity, except
construction and wholesale trade. Output in the
key sectors of the economy increased by 5.3% on
the same period of the previous year (in 2009 H1
it was down 13.4%).
In 2010 H1 construction work volumes con-
tracted by 3.1% and wholesale trade turnover by
4.1%. At the same time, output grew in transport
by 12.2%, retail trade by 3.4% and agriculture
by 2.9%.
Industrial output grew by 10.2% in 2010
H1, whereas in 2009 H1 it declined by 14.5%.
High rates of output growth were registered in
the manufacturing sector (14.3%), especially
the production of electrical, electronic and optical
equipment (28.8%), transport vehicles (28.1%)
and leather , leather goods and footwear (22.8%).
Output in the mining sector rose by 5.8%;
particularly marked growth was registered in
the production of natural gas (21.3%) and coal
(13.4%).
According to the Agriculture Ministry’s lat -
est data, 33 million tonnes of grain had been
threshed by the end of July, which represents an
increase of 5% on the same period last year. How-
ever , owing to unfavourable weather conditions,
the Agriculture Ministry has lowered its grain har-
vest forecast for 2010 to 70-75 million tonnes,
which represents a decrease of 23-28% from the
2009 level. Yet, at the beginning of July agricul -
tural, procurement and processing organisations
had grain stocks of 21.7 million tonnes, or 17.6%
more than at the same time in 2009. Significant
grain stocks amid the disappointing outlook for
the grain harvest may reduce the risk of food price
increases until the end of the year.
According to data released by the Russian
Economic Barometer , industrial production ca -
pacity utilisation ratio in January-May 2010 on
average stood at 70% of the normal level (in Jan-
uary-May 2009 it was 62%). In May the leading
industries by production capacity utilisation ratio
were timber and wood-working industry (82%)
and chemical industry (79%), whereas the lowest
ratio of 66% was registered in the building mate-
rials industry and metallurgy sector.
In 2010 H1 GDP grew by 4.0%, as com -
pared with the same period of the previous year.
The output gap remained negative.
Labour market
The number of people employed in the econ-
omy increased by 0.3% in 2010 H1, whereas in
2009 H1 it fell by 2.6%.
14 2010 Q2
Labour productivity increased by an estimat-
ed 3.3% in 2010 Q1. Estimates show that labour
productivity grew in the manufacturing sector ,
whereas in the services sector it continued to de -
cline during this period. The output of goods in -
creased, while the output of services decreased.
In 2010 Q1 the number of jobs increased in the
services sector but fell in the manufacturing sector
year on year. In 2010 H1 real wage grew faster
(by 4.4%) than labour productivity (in 2009 H1
real wage decreased by 2.4%).
Significant differences in wage levels be -
tween various types of economic activity remain
this year. In January-May 2010 the highest aver-
age monthly wage was registered in the financial
sector (47,653 rubles) and the production of
energy resources (43,206 rubles), it exceeded
the national average 2.4 times and 2.2 times, re-
spectively. The lowest wages were registered in
agriculture, hunting and forestry (9,582 rubles),
the textile and clothing industry (9,633 rubles)
and the production of leather , leather goods and
footwear (10,310 rubles); these made up 48%,
49% and 52% of the national average wage,
respectively. Below-average wages remained in
activity types that were largely financed from the
federal budget, such as education and other utili-
ties, social and personal services and healthcare,
and in the manufacturing sector , construction,
wholesale and retail trade and car and household
goods repair services.
In February 2010 the total number of un -
employed began to fall and in January-June it de-
clined by 8.4% down to 6.8% of the economi -
cally active population by end-June (8.3% as of
the end of June of 2009).
2010 Q2 15
whereas in 2010 Q1 it gained 5.2%. In 2010
Q1 the ruble appreciated against the euro every
month: by 2.3% in April, 2.3% in May and 0.6%
in June. As of 1 July 2010, the official euro / ruble
rate stood at 38.2097 rubles to the euro. In July
the ruble lost 2.5% of its nominal value against
the eurozone currency and as a result, on 1 Au-
gust the official euro / ruble rate reached 39.4694
rubles to the euro.
The ruble value of the bi-currency bas -
ket, calculated on the basis of the dollar / ruble
and euro / ruble exchange rate dynamics, stood
at 34.3848 rubles as of 1 July 2010. In July, al -
though the dollar and euro rates changed both
ways against the ruble, the value of the bi-curren-
cy basket remained virtually unchanged and as of
1 August it stood at 34.3640 rubles.
The nominal effective exchange rate of
the ruble against foreign currencies rose by
3.8% in April-June (Q1 growth stood at 2.3%).
Since the eurozone countries account for over
40% of Russia’s foreign trade turnover , the ruble’s
appreciation against the euro played the decisive
part in the rise of the nominal effective rate of the
ruble during the quarter under review.
The real ruble / dollar exchange rate
slipped by 0.1% in 2010 Q2, whereas in 2010
Q1 it rose by 0.9%. At the same time, as in the
Exchange rate
In 2010 Q2 the domestic foreign exchange
market remained stable, despite a slight increase
in the intra-quarter exchange rate volatility, main-
ly caused by price fluctuations on the world en -
ergy market. According to preliminary data, the
H1 current account surplus stood at $ 50.2 billion,
taking into account the Q1 current account sur -
plus of $ 33.3 billion. A net private capital inflow
estimated at $ 4.5 billion was registered in April-
June, whereas in Q1 there was a net capital out -
flow of $ 14.7 billion. As of 1 July 2010, Russia’s
international reserves reached $ 461.2 billion, an
increase of 3.1% over April-June.
The nominal ruble / US dollar exchange
rate slipped by 1.1% in 2010 Q2 (in 2010 Q1
was down by 1.5%). It continued to change both
ways under the impact of the external economic
conditions. In April the ruble gained 1.3% against
the dollar , but in May and June it lost 3.8% and
2.6%, respectively. As 1 July 2010, the official
US dollar / ruble rate was 31.2554 rubles to the
dollar. As energy prices rose in July, the nominal
ruble / dollar rate increased by 1.6%. As a result,
as of 1 August 2010, the official US dollar / ruble
rate stood at 30.1869 rubles to the dollar.
The nominal ruble / euro exchange rate
increased by 7.3% in the quarter under review,
Monetary Conditions
16 2010 Q2
der review compared to the previous quarter and
it continues to exceed the contribution of the in -
flation differential. According to estimates, in July
the ruble lost 2.0% against the euro in real terms,
largely owing to the dynamics of the nominal rate
of the ruble against the euro in this period.
The real effective exchange rate of the
ruble against foreign currencies gained 4.4%
in Q2 (Q1 growth stood at 4.0%). According to
previous quarter , the inflation differential made a
more significant contribution to the real rate dy -
namics. Preliminary data indicate that in July the
ruble gained 2.1% against the dollar in real terms.
The real ruble / euro exchange rate rose
by 8.0% in April-June after a growth of 7.7% in
Q1. The relative contribution of the nominal rate
of the ruble against the euro to the real ruble / euro
rate dynamics increased slightly in the quarter un-
International currency market
The US dollar gained more than 16% against the euro on the international forex market in 2010 H1 (June
on December 2009). The significant devaluation of the euro from the end of November 2009 to the beginning
of June 2010 was the result of the increased risks connected with high budget deficit and government debt
of Greece and some other member countries of the
Economic and Monetary Union. However, interna -
tional measures taken to reduce these risks, includ -
ing the extension of loans to Greece by its European
partners and the IMF , led to the stabilisation and
subsequent strengthening of the euro (in the middle
and at the end of June).
The currencies of most of Russia’s leading trad-
ing partners depreciated against the dollar but ap -
preciated against the euro (rates of the euro against
currencies of the central European countries and
Baltic States remained stable). The Ukrainian hryv -
nia and Kazakhstan tenge appreciated against the
US dollar and the euro. The yuan remained stable
against the US dollar for most of 2010 H1 (6.83
yuan to the dollar) but late in June, when China an -
nounced the resumption of a more flexible national
currency rate-setting policy it suspended in the mid-
dle of 2008, the yuan gained slightly against the
dollar and reached 6.78.
Monetary Conditions
2010 Q2 17
credit institution can receive refinancing in the
Bank of Russia (at the repo auctions or auctions of
1- and 7-day Lombard loans) has been 5% p.a.
In line with the decisions taken by the Bank of
Russia Board of Directors on 30 June and 30 July
2010, the refinancing rate and interest rates on
Bank of Russia operations remained unchanged.
The current parameters of the Bank of Russia in -
terest rate policy and some other factors involved
in the money market rate-setting process ensure
an acceptable balance between the accessibility
of borrowings and the inflation risks created by
the monetary factors.
Average interest rates on the ruble-denom -
inated interbank loans extended for various
terms continued to decline in 2010 Q2. The Q2
average overnight ruble MIACR stood at 2.9% as
against 3.8% p.a. in Q1. The Q2 overnight ruble
MIACR ranged from 2.3% to 3.9% p.a. (in Q1 it
varied between 2.9% and 5.4% p.a.). In July the
overnight ruble MIACR on interbank loans mostly
increased, fluctuating within the range from 2.1%
to 3.3% p.a. The average overnight MIACR on
preliminary data, in July 2010 the real effective
rate of the ruble slipped by 0.8%.
Estimates indicate that the ruble dynamics
against foreign currencies registered through -
out Q2 may cause consumer price inflation to
slow down slightly, by about 0.2-0.3 percentage
points, until the end of the year.
Interest rates
To make credit more accessible to economic
entities and stimulate final demand, the Bank of
Russia in 2010 Q2 continued to cut interest rates
on its operations amid the slowing of inflation and
moderate inflationary expectations. The overnight
credit rate, which sets the upper limit of the Bank
of Russia interest rate band, was cut twice by a
quarter of a percentage point and since 1 June
2010 it has stood at 7.75% p.a. The standard
overnight deposit rate, which sets the lower limit
of the Bank of Russia interest rate band, was also
cut by a quarter of a percentage point and since
30 April 2010 it has stood at 2.5% p.a. Since
1 June 2010 the lowest interest rate at which a
Liquidity situation and Bank of Russia operations
In April-July 2010 credit institutions’ funds in deposit accounts and Bank of Russia bonds increased amid
the significant surplus of banking sector liquidity, while refinancing operations and debt on refinancing instru -
ments contracted.
Bank of Russia average daily obligations to credit institutions on the liquidity absorption instruments in -
creased approximately from 1,030 billion rubles in Q1 to 1,575 billion rubles in Q2 and 1,680 billion rubles in
July. Meanwhile, obligations on Bank of Russia bonds came to predominate in their structure. Bank of Russia
average daily claims on credit institutions for instru-
ments used to provide liquidity decreased roughly to
160 billion rubles in Q2 and 100 billion rubles in July,
whereas in Q1 they amounted to 480 billion rubles.
Favourable dynamics of the major macroeco -
nomic and banking sector stability indicators and the
overall reduction of systemic risks allowed the Bank
of Russia to limit access for credit institutions to un-
secured and long-term loans and gradually replace
them by conventional instruments used to provide
liquidity. For this purpose, in January-July 2010 the
Bank of Russia did not cut interest rates on unsecured
loans and twice tightened credit risk limits. In addi -
tion, it announced that it would suspend extending
long-term unsecured loans starting 1 October 2010,
and all unsecured loans starting 1 January 2011.
The Bank of Russia has not held 12-month repo auc-
tions since March 2010 and 6-month repo auctions
since April. On 30 April it stopped holding 12-month
Lombard credit auctions and halted the extension of
loans against ‘non-market’ assets or guarantees for
a term of 181 to 365 days.
18 2010 Q2
p.a. in Q1 to 3.0% p.a. in Q2, the 8- to 30-day
interbank credit rate declined from 5.5% p.a. to
4.5% p.a. and the 1- to 3-month rate was down
from 6.9% p.a. to 4.9% p.a.
ruble loans in July gained 0.1 percentage points
month on month and stood at 2.6% p.a. The in -
terest rate on ruble interbank loans placed by Rus-
sian banks for a term of 2-7 days fell from 4.3%
Central bank policies in foreign countries
Short-term interest rates on deposits denominated in the currencies that comprise the bi-currency basket
(the euro and US dollar) remained low in 2010 H1. US and eurozone monetary policy interest rates remained
unchanged. The European Central Bank refinancing rate has been 1.0% p.a. since May 2009. The US Federal
Reserve System has maintained the benchmark federal funds rate in the range of from 0 to 0.25% p.a. since
December 2008. The US federal reserve banks’ discount rate (the rate on loans extended through the discount
window) was raised in February 2010 from 0.5% to 0.75% p.a. as the money market conditions stabilised. In
some large foreign economies, such as Brazil, India, Canada and Republic of Korea, the central banks raised their
monetary policy interest rates in January-July 2010. Meanwhile, the slowing of inflation in Belarus and Ukraine
created conditions that allowed their central banks to cut interest rates in the period under review.
Monetary Conditions
2010 Q2 19
In 2010 Q2 interest rates on household de-
posits with all terms (from 1 month to 3 years)
continued to decline. In 2010 Q2 the average
short-term household ruble deposit interest rate
fell by 1.4 percentage points quarter on quar -
ter and stood at 7.1 p.a. The average long-term
(1 year to 3 years) household ruble deposit inter-
est rate was down by 1.3 percentage points to
7.4% p.a.
In 2010 Q2 the average long-term interest
rate on the ruble household credit market was
18.4% p.a., marking a decrease of 1.1 percent-
age points from 2010 Q1. The average short-
term credit rate fell by 5.2 percentage points to
26.0% p.a. in 2010 Q2.
Average quarterly interest rates on loans to
non-financial organisations continued to fall
in 2010 Q2. The average interest rate on short-
term loans to non-financial organisations stood at
11.4% p.a. in 2010 Q2, a drop of 1.4 percent-
age points from 2010 Q1. The average long-term
credit rate was down by 1.5 percentage points
to 12.3% p.a. in 2010 Q2. Quarter on quarter ,
the biggest fall (by 2.6 percentage points) in the
average interest rate was registered on loans with
terms from 1 month to 3 months. The yield curve
for loans to non-financial organisations shifted
down considerably in Q2 compared with Q1. In
section for loans with terms of up to 6 months
and over 3 years the yield curve was rising and in
20 2010 Q2
the section for loans with terms of from 6 months
to 3 years it was slightly descending.
OFZ market yields changed horizontally
in April-July. As of the end of Q2, the effective
OFZ market portfolio indicator (MPI) slipped by
0.1 percentage points from 7.4% p.a. registered
at the end of the previous quarter. The average
quarterly effective MPI fell by 0.6 percentage
points to 7.4% p.a. Relative to the end of June,
the effective MPI at the end of July remained un -
changed at 7.3% p.a. The average monthly indi -
cator was also unchanged.
In April-July the OFZ yield curve remained
rising, moving down in the section for maturities
of up to 2.5 years and up in the sections for longer
maturity periods. By the end of July, the slope of
the government bond yield curve increased slight-
ly as compared with April-June 2010.
In April-July the ruble corporate and re -
gional bond market demonstrated similar se -
curities yield dynamics. In April and May yields
mostly rose, while in June and July they fell. In Q2
the average corporate and regional bond yields
stood at 8.1% and 7.8% p.a., respectively, as
against 9.1% and 8.7% p.a. in Q1. In July the
average corporate and regional bond yields fell
month on month by 0.4 percentage points and
0.3 percentage points, respectively, and stood at
7.5% and 7.3% p.a. In April and May the spreads
between yields on federal loan bonds (OFZ), cor-
Monetary Conditions
2010 Q2 21
of growth in share prices in the previous quarter ,
and chemical and petrochemical industry.
In July Russian share prices increased against
the background of favourable price trends on the
world’s stock and oil markets. At the end of July
the MICEX Index gained 6.7% month on month
and reached 1,397.12 points and the RTS Index
rose by 10.5% to 1,479.73 points by the end of
July. Share prices grew in all sectors of the Russian
economy, especially the oil and gas sector , chemi-
cal and petrochemical industry and banking sec -
tor.
Monetary aggregates
The annual rates of growth in monetary ag -
gregate M2 accelerated and as of 1 July 2010,
they stood at 30.6% as against 16.3% on 1 Jan-
uary 2010. However , seasonally adjusted month-
ly rates of growth in the ruble supply in Q2 were
lower than in Q1. As a result, the dynamics of
6-month rates of M2 growth (calculated on an -
nualised basis), which is less affected by the base
effect, demonstrates the slowing of M2 growth
rates in 2010 Q2.
The economic recovery, the ruble’s apprecia-
tion, mostly in Q1, the replacement of foreign ex-
change by the domestic currency and the slowing
of inflation led to further growth in the demand
for money. Money supply growth was strongly
impacted by Bank of Russia interventions on the
domestic forex market and the partial financing of
the federal budget deficit from the Reserve Fund.
In addition, the resumption of growth in lending
porate bonds and regional bonds widened and by
the last week of May they reached the levels regis-
tered at the end of February and the beginning of
March. In June and July these spreads narrowed
sharply.
Asset prices
The Russian stock market in 2010 Q2
demonstrated massive share price fluctuations
because of the increased uncertainty of domes -
tic market participants about future prices. In the
first half of April the MICEX and RTS stock mar -
ket indices continued to rise and in the middle of
the month they reached the highest levels since
the beginning of 2009. Afterwards, these indi -
ces started to plummet down because of the de -
terioration of the situation in some segments of
the world financial market and the accelerated
withdrawal of non-resident funds from the do -
mestic stock market. By the end of May the Rus -
sian stock market indices returned to the October
2009 level. In June they fluctuated within a wide
horizontal band. On 30 June the MICEX Index fell
by 9.7% as compared to the level registered at the
end of 2010 Q1, to 1,309.31 points and the RTS
Index was down by 14.8% to 1,339.35 points.
The average MICEX and RTS indices in Q2 were
lower than in Q1 by 0.7% and 1.0%, respectively.
All sectors of the economy saw prices of their
shares fall considerably in 2010 Q2. The most sig-
nificant decline in share prices in the period under
review was registered in the metallurgy and pow-
er sectors, which demonstrated the highest rates
22 2010 Q2
by 7.2%. The annualised rate of growth in cash
stood at 24% as of 1 July 2010. Cash dynam -
ics was heavily dependent on public preferences
with regard to foreign currency. In 2010 H1 net
sales of foreign currency (by households) through
exchange offices aggregated to nearly $ 2.4 bil-
lion. According to Russia’s balance of payments
preliminary estimates, foreign currency outside
the banking system decreased by $ 10.1 billion in
2010 H1.
Exchange rate dynamics had marked effect
on the dynamics of foreign currency deposits.
In 2010 H1 these deposits contracted by nearly
8% (in dollar terms), whereas in 2009 H1 they
increased by more than 12%. The annualised
rates of growth in foreign currency-denominated
activity in 2010 Q2 also came to play a more im -
portant role in money supply growth.
Household deposits were the most rapidly
growing component of monetary aggregate M2.
In 2010 H1 they increased by 20.1% in value
(as against growth by 5.6% in 2009 H1 and by
10.8% in 2008 H1). As a result, the annualised
rate of growth in ruble-denominated household
deposits reached 44.5% as of 1 July 2010. In
2010 H1 non-financial organisations’ deposits
increased by 0.6%, whereas in the same period
of the previous year they contracted by 5.8%. The
annualised rate of growth in non-financial organi-
sation deposits reached 22.3% as of 1 July 2010.
Monetary aggregate M0 increased by 8.2%
in 2010 H1, whereas in 2009 H1 it contracted
Monetary Conditions
2010 Q2 23
als expanded by 4.0% and by 2.3%, respectively.
As a result, overall growth in debt on loans to non-
financial organisations and households stood at
4.7%, the biggest quarterly increase since 2008
Q3. However , the annualised rate of growth in to-
tal debt on loans remained low and as of 1 July
2010, it stood at 1.1%.
As there was a significant amount of liquidity
on the short-term money market and the deposit
base grew, banks did not want to expand their
credit portfolios and preferred to build up alter -
native (more liquid and less risky) types of assets,
such as Bank of Russia and Russian Government
bonds and foreign assets, and place deposits with
the Bank of Russia. At the same time, in March
2010 bank claims on non-residents began to de-
deposits began to slow down rapidly at the end
of 2009. As a result, as of 1 July 2010, they de -
creased by 6.9% in value year on year (as of 1 July
2009, there was a rise by 74.6%). The foreign
currency deposit ratio 1 continued to contract in
2010 H1 and on 1 July 2010, it stood at 17.5%
as against 22.8% a year earlier.
The dynamics of foreign currency deposits
accounted for the fact that the annualised rates of
growth in monetary aggregate M2X were lower
than those of M2. Nevertheless, over 2010 H1
the M2X annualised growth rates continued to
accelerate and on 1 July they reached 22.2%. The
dynamics of annualised 6-month rates of growth
in broad money M2X testifies to a slight slowing
of the rates of M2X growth in 2010 Q2.
The significant decline in the annualised rates
of growth in the money supply in 2008 and the
first half of 2009 led to slowing of price growth in
2009 and in 2010. At the same time, the current
monetary indicators show that the risk of inflation
may increase owing to the monetary factors at the
end of 2010 and in 2011.
Credit aggregates
Debt on all categories of loans grew every
month in 2010 Q2. The debt on loans extended
to non-financial organisations in rubles increased
by 4.1% over that period and on loans in foreign
currency by 7.2%. The debt on loans to individu-
1 The foreign currency deposit ratio in this case signifies the
share of foreign currency-denominated deposits (in ruble
terms) in the broad monetary base.
24 2010 Q2
crease gradually. Yet, the amount of Bank of Rus-
sia bonds owned by credit institutions and bank
deposits with the Bank of Russia remained signifi-
cant.
One factor containing growth in lending
activity was low demand for loans. However , as
aggregate demand recovered, lending activity
gradually rose, confirming the fact that there is
a certain time lag between credit and real sector
dynamics.
Lending may further expand as a result of the
monetary policy easing as well as the anticipated
further rise in business activity. Credit growth will
have a stimulating effect on aggregate demand
and play a more active role as a source of money
supply.
2010 Q2 25
Statistical Addendum
Table 1
Consumer prices by group of goods and services
(month on month, %)
Monthly
inflation
Core
inflation
Food price
growth
Food price
growth 1
Vegetable
and fruit price
growth
Non-food
price growth
Growth in non-
food prices,
excluding petrol
prices 2
Service price
growth
January 2.3 1.1 1.9 1.2 8.3 0.6 0.6 5.4
February 1.2 1.0 1.7 1.3 5.1 0.6 0.6 1.4
March 1.2 1.1 2.0 1.5 5.9 0.7 0.7 0.6
April 1.4 1.3 2.2 1.8 5.5 0.9 0.7 1.0
May 1.4 1.1 2.1 1.5 6.4 0.8 0.6 1.0
June 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.7 0.5 1.1
July 0.5 0.8 0.1 1.0 -6.7 0.7 0.5 0.9
August 0.4 1.0 -0.2 1.2 -11.3 0.6 0.6 0.9
September 0.8 1.4 0.7 1.5 -6.4 0.7 0.8 1.0
October 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.8 -0.4 0.8 1.0 0.0
November 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.9 0.7
December 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.7 0.1 0.6 1.0
Full year (December on December) 13.3 13.6 16.5 17.5 7.7 8.0 8.4 13.3
January 2.4 1.3 1.4 1.1 4.7 0.7 1.0 6.3
February 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.5 4.9 1.6 1.8 1.4
March 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.4 4.5 1.4 1.6 0.6
April 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 -0.1 1.0 1.1 0.3
May 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.3 4.1 0.7 0.8 0.3
June 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.1 3.9 0.8 0.3 0.5
July 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.2 3.2 0.6 0.2 0.8
August 0.0 0.5 -0.9 0.4 -11.0 0.6 0.4 0.4
September 0.0 0.5 -0.8 0.4 -11.5 0.7 0.6 0.1
October 0.0 0.3 -0.5 0.0 -6.1 0.6 0.7 -0.1
November 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.1
December 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 3.0 0.2 0.3 0.5
Full year (December on December) 8.8 8.3 6.1 6.9 -1.7 9.7 9.8 11.6
January 1.6 0.5 1.4 0.8 7.2 0.2 0.3 3.9
February 0.9 0.5 1.3 0.8 5.6 0.3 0.3 1.0
March 0.6 0.5 1.0 0.7 4.2 0.4 0.4 0.4
April 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.2
May 0.5 0.1 0.7 -0.1 7.2 0.4 0.3 0.4
June 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.0 4.6 0.2 0.2 0.4
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Bank of Russia estimate.
Note. T ables 1 to 7 are based on Rosstat data and Bank of Russia calculations.
26 2010 Q2
Table 2
Consumer prices by group of goods and services
(since start of year on accrual basis, %)
Monthly
inflation
Core
inflation
Food price
growth
Food price
growth 1
Vegetable
and fruit price
growth
Non-food
price growth
Growth in non-
food prices,
excluding petrol
prices 2
Service price
growth
January 2.3 1.1 1.9 1.2 8.3 0.6 0.6 5.4
February 3.5 2.1 3.6 2.5 13.9 1.2 1.2 6.8
March 4.8 3.2 5.7 4.0 20.6 2.0 1.9 7.5
April 6.3 4.5 8.0 5.9 27.2 2.9 2.6 8.5
May 7.7 5.7 10.2 7.5 35.4 3.7 3.2 9.6
June 8.7 6.7 11.4 8.7 36.0 4.4 3.7 10.8
July 9.3 7.6 11.5 9.8 26.9 5.2 4.2 11.9
August 9.7 8.6 11.3 11.2 12.5 5.8 4.9 12.9
September 10.6 10.1 12.1 12.9 5.3 6.5 5.7 14.1
October 11.6 11.5 13.9 14.9 4.8 7.3 6.8 14.1
November 12.5 12.7 15.3 16.3 5.9 7.8 7.8 14.8
December 13.3 13.6 16.5 17.5 7.7 8.0 8.4 13.3
January 2.4 1.3 1.4 1.1 4.7 0.7 1.0 6.3
February 4.1 2.9 3.3 2.6 9.8 2.3 2.8 7.8
March 5.4 4.3 5.0 4.0 14.7 3.8 4.5 8.5
April 6.2 5.2 5.8 4.8 14.6 4.8 5.7 8.7
May 6.8 5.7 6.5 5.1 19.3 5.5 6.5 9.1
June 7.4 6.0 7.0 5.2 24.0 6.3 6.9 9.6
July 8.1 6.3 7.6 5.4 28.0 7.0 7.1 10.5
August 8.1 6.8 6.6 5.8 14.0 7.6 7.6 10.9
September 8.1 7.3 5.8 6.3 0.8 8.3 8.2 11.0
October 8.1 7.6 5.2 6.3 -5.4 9.0 9.0 10.9
November 8.4 8.0 5.5 6.5 -4.5 9.4 9.4 11.1
December 8.8 8.3 6.1 6.9 -1.7 9.7 9.8 11.6
January 1.6 0.5 1.4 0.8 7.2 0.2 0.3 3.9
February 2.5 1.0 2.7 1.6 13.2 0.5 0.6 5.0
March 3.2 1.5 3.8 2.3 18.0 0.9 1.0 5.4
April 3.5 1.7 4.1 2.5 19.3 1.3 1.3 5.6
May 4.0 1.8 4.8 2.4 27.9 1.7 1.7 6.0
June 4.4 2.0 5.4 2.4 33.8 1.9 1.9 6.4
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Bank of Russia estimate.
Statistical Addendum
2010 Q2 27
Table 3
Consumer prices by group of goods and services
(month on corresponding month of previous year, %)
Monthly
inflation
Core
inflation 1
Food price
growth
Food price
growth 2
Vegetable
and fruit price
growth
Non-food
price growth
Growth in non-
food prices.
excluding petrol
prices 1
Service price
growth
January 12.6 11.5 16.7 15.7 27.2 6.8 6.6 14.1
February 12.7 12.1 17.6 16.5 29.1 7.0 6.8 12.7
March 13.3 12.7 19.1 17.6 32.6 7.4 7.1 12.7
April 14.3 13.5 20.8 19.1 35.6 8.0 7.4 13.3
May 15.1 14.5 22.1 20.8 33.9 8.4 7.7 13.9
June 15.1 15.1 21.3 21.7 19.9 8.9 7.9 14.4
July 14.7 15.0 19.8 21.2 9.8 9.2 8.0 14.7
August 15.0 14.8 20.2 20.8 16.1 9.2 8.1 15.2
September 15.0 14.5 19.9 20.0 19.0 9.1 8.1 15.9
October 14.2 13.7 17.9 18.0 17.5 9.1 8.2 15.7
November 13.8 13.7 17.2 17.7 11.9 8.6 8.4 15.8
December 13.3 13.6 16.5 17.5 7.7 8.0 8.4 13.3
January 13.4 13.9 15.9 17.3 4.1 8.1 8.9 16.9
February 13.9 14.6 16.1 17.6 3.8 9.2 10.2 17.0
March 14.0 14.9 15.8 17.4 2.5 9.9 11.2 17.0
April 13.2 14.4 14.1 16.3 -3.0 10.0 11.7 16.2
May 12.3 13.6 12.5 14.9 -5.1 9.9 11.9 15.4
June 11.9 12.9 11.9 13.7 -1.8 9.9 11.7 14.6
July 12.0 12.3 12.4 12.7 8.7 9.8 11.4 14.5
August 11.6 11.7 11.6 11.8 9.1 9.9 11.2 13.9
September 10.7 10.8 9.9 10.6 3.2 9.9 11.0 12.8
October 9.7 9.6 7.6 8.7 -2.8 9.6 10.6 12.7
November 9.1 8.8 6.6 7.6 -2.9 9.6 10.0 12.1
December 8.8 8.3 6.1 6.9 -1.7 9.7 9.8 11.6
January 8.0 7.5 6.1 6.6 0.7 9.1 9.0 9.1
February 7.2 6.3 5.5 5.8 1.4 7.7 7.4 8.7
March 6.5 5.4 4.8 5.1 1.1 6.6 6.1 8.4
April 6.0 4.8 4.4 4.5 2.4 5.9 5.2 8.4
May 6.0 4.4 4.4 4.1 5.4 5.7 4.8 8.4
June 5.8 4.3 4.5 4.0 6.1 5.1 4.6 8.4
1 Bank of Russia estimate.
2 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
28 2010 Q2
Table 4
Inflation growth over period since start of year due to price changes
by group of goods and services (percentage points)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food
products
Paid
services
Vegetables and
fruit
Inflation over
period, %
Core
inflation
Non-core
inflation 2
January 0.4 0.2 1.3 0.3 2.3 0.8 1.5
February 0.9 0.4 1.7 0.5 3.5 1.6 1.9
March 1.4 0.7 1.9 0.8 4.8 2.5 2.3
April 2.1 1.0 2.1 1.0 6.3 3.6 2.7
May 2.6 1.3 2.4 1.4 7.7 4.5 3.2
June 3.1 1.6 2.7 1.4 8.7 5.3 3.5
July 3.5 1.9 3.0 1.0 9.3 6.0 3.3
August 3.9 2.1 3.2 0.5 9.7 6.8 2.9
September 4.5 2.3 3.5 0.2 10.6 8.0 2.6
October 5.2 2.6 3.5 0.2 11.6 9.2 2.4
November 5.7 2.8 3.7 0.2 12.5 10.1 2.4
December 6.2 2.9 4.0 0.3 13.3 10.8 2.5
January 0.4 0.3 1.6 0.2 2.4 1.0 1.4
February 0.9 0.9 2.0 0.4 4.1 2.4 1.7
March 1.4 1.4 2.1 0.5 5.4 3.5 2.0
April 1.6 1.8 2.2 0.5 6.2 4.2 2.0
May 1.8 2.1 2.3 0.7 6.8 4.6 2.2
June 1.8 2.4 2.4 0.9 7.4 4.8 2.6
July 1.9 2.6 2.6 1.0 8.1 5.1 3.0
August 2.0 2.9 2.7 0.5 8.1 5.5 2.6
September 2.1 3.1 2.8 0.0 8.1 5.9 2.1
October 2.1 3.4 2.7 -0.2 8.1 6.1 1.9
November 2.2 3.5 2.8 -0.2 8.4 6.4 1.9
December 2.4 3.6 2.9 -0.1 8.8 6.7 2.1
January 0.3 0.1 1.0 0.3 1.6 0.4 1.2
February 0.6 0.2 1.3 0.5 2.5 0.8 1.7
March 0.8 0.3 1.4 0.6 3.2 1.2 2.0
April 0.9 0.5 1.4 0.7 3.5 1.4 2.1
May 0.8 0.6 1.5 1.0 4.0 1.5 2.5
June 0.8 0.7 1.7 1.2 4.4 1.6 2.8
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
Statistical Addendum
2010 Q2 29
Table 5
Monthly inflation growth due to price changes
by group of goods and services (percentage points)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food
products
Paid
services
Vegetables
and fruit
Inflation over
period, %
Core
inflation
Non-core
inflation 2
January 0.4 0.2 1.3 0.3 2.3 0.8 1.5
February 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 1.2 0.8 0.4
March 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 1.2 0.8 0.3
April 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 1.4 1.0 0.4
May 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.4 0.9 0.5
June 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.0 0.7 0.2
July 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.3 0.5 0.7 -0.1
August 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.5 0.4 0.8 -0.4
September 0.5 0.2 0.3 -0.3 0.8 1.1 -0.3
October 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.9 1.1 -0.2
November 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.0
December 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1
January 0.4 0.3 1.6 0.2 2.4 1.0 1.4
February 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.7 1.3 0.3
March 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 1.3 1.1 0.2
April 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.0
May 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2
June 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.4
July 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.4
August 3 0.0
September 3 0.0
October 3 0.0
November 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0
December 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1
January 0.3 0.1 1.0 0.3 1.6 0.4 1.2
February 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.5
March 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.3
April 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1
May 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.4
June 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
3 Owing to zero inflation in August-October 2009, estimates may vary.
30 2010 Q2
Table 6
Contribution to inflation growth over period since start of year
by group of goods and services (%)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food products Paid services Vegetables and fruit Core inflation Non-core inflation 2
January 18.9 9.3 58.1 13.7 36.2 63.8
February 25.1 12.1 47.9 14.9 46.1 53.9
March 29.7 14.7 39.0 16.6 52.7 47.3
April 33.0 16.5 33.9 16.6 57.0 43.0
May 34.2 17.1 31.1 17.6 58.5 41.5
June 35.2 18.2 30.8 15.7 60.5 39.5
July 37.3 19.9 31.7 11.1 64.4 35.6
August 40.6 21.4 33.0 5.0 70.5 29.5
September 43.0 22.0 33.1 1.9 75.7 24.3
October 45.3 22.9 30.2 1.6 79.2 20.8
November 46.0 22.6 29.6 1.8 80.8 19.2
December 46.4 21.6 29.8 2.2 81.5 18.5
January 15.6 11.3 66.2 7.0 42.3 57.7
February 22.1 21.5 47.9 8.6 57.7 42.3
March 25.3 26.1 38.9 9.7 64.0 36.0
April 26.7 29.3 35.5 8.5 67.9 32.1
May 25.9 30.5 33.4 10.2 67.5 32.5
June 24.1 31.9 32.4 11.6 65.0 35.0
July 23.0 32.3 32.3 12.4 62.6 37.4
August 24.7 35.3 33.8 6.2 67.6 32.4
September 26.7 38.7 34.2 0.4 73.3 26.7
October 26.6 41.9 33.8 -2.4 76.3 23.7
November 26.7 42.2 33.0 -1.9 76.7 23.3
December 26.7 41.0 33.0 -0.7 76.4 23.6
January 17.3 4.7 61.6 16.3 25.6 74.4
February 22.2 7.3 51.4 19.1 31.6 68.4
March 25.2 10.4 43.9 20.6 37.4 62.6
April 25.0 13.2 41.7 20.2 39.8 60.2
May 20.9 15.3 38.5 25.3 37.2 62.8
June 19.0 15.8 37.5 27.7 37.2 62.8
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
Statistical Addendum
2010 Q2 31
Table 7
Contribution to monthly inflation growth
by group of goods and services (%)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food products Paid services Vegetables and fruit Core inflation Non-core inflation 2
January 18.9 9.3 58.1 13.7 36.2 63.8
February 36.8 17.4 28.5 17.3 64.9 35.1
March 43.2 22.6 12.8 21.4 72.2 27.8
April 43.5 22.0 17.6 16.9 70.3 29.7
May 39.1 20.1 18.9 21.9 65.2 34.8
June 42.7 26.5 28.7 2.2 74.5 25.5
July 69.6 47.5 45.8 -62.9 125.6 -25.6
August 122.9 59.3 67.5 -149.7 225.0 -125.0
September 69.7 29.4 34.5 -33.6 136.6 -36.6
October 69.5 32.2 -0.1 -1.7 116.9 -16.9
November 54.4 19.8 21.2 4.7 100.5 -0.5
December 50.8 5.9 34.3 8.9 91.7 8.3
January 15.6 11.3 66.2 7.0 42.3 57.7
February 31.2 35.9 22.0 10.9 79.5 20.5
March 35.2 40.0 11.7 13.1 83.0 17.0
April 37.5 53.9 9.3 -0.7 97.1 2.9
May 17.1 42.5 13.3 27.1 62.6 37.4
June 5.7 46.9 20.7 26.8 38.4 61.6
July 10.8 35.8 31.6 21.8 35.3 64.7
August 3
September 3
October 3
November 28.1 49.3 12.4 10.2 87.7 12.3
December 27.2 18.3 31.2 23.4 70.2 29.8
January 17.3 4.7 61.6 16.3 25.6 74.4
February 30.6 11.7 33.6 24.1 42.2 57.8
March 36.4 22.1 15.4 26.0 59.6 40.4
April 23.4 42.8 18.0 15.8 65.3 34.7
May -5.6 29.1 18.0 58.5 20.0 80.0
June 0.9 20.8 28.1 50.2 37.2 62.8
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
3 Owing to zero inflation in August-October 2009, estimates may vary.
32 2010 Q2
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Macroeconomic indicators
GDP
over period since start of year, billion rubles
2008 8,907 19,166 30,755 41,445
2009 8,397 17,680 28,185 39,064
2010 9,862
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2008 109.3 108.4 107.7 105.6
2009 90.6 89.8 90.7 92.1
2010 102.9
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2008 109.3 107.7 106.6 100.0
2009 90.6 89.2 92.3 96.2
2010 102.9
Industrial output indices
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2008 106.0 104.3 101.9 90.9
2009 84.5 86.4 90.4 101.8
2010 109.5 110.9
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2008 106.0 105.2 104.1 100.6
2009 84.5 85.5 87.1 90.7
2010 109.5 110.2
Agricultural output
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2008 105.5 106.9 113.0 111.3
2009 102.3 100.8 99.0 105.2
2010 103.6 102.3
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2008 105.5 106.4 109.6 110.8
2009 102.3 101.4 100.1 101.2
2010 103.6 102.9
Fixed capital investment
over period since start of year, billion rubles
2008 1,314.6 3,306.1 5,675.1 8,781.6
2009 1,234.5 2,915.9 4,966.1 7,930.3
2010 1,262.6 3,174.1
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2008 123.4 117.6 112.3 98.7
2009 82.7 77.2 81.8 90.6
2010 95.9 105.3
Retail trade turnover
over period since start of year, billion rubles
2008 2,952.8 6,278.9 9,936.9 13,920.7
2009 3,324.0 6,836.9 10,530.1 14,602.5
2010 3,615.9 7,535.3
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2008 117.2 114.9 115.0 108.7
2009 100.4 94.9 91.4 94.5
2010 101.5 105.1
Federal budget on accrual
basis, as of end of period
revenue
billion rubles
2008 1,932.7 4,370.7 7,155.7 9,275.9
2009 1,732.7 3,172.2 5,114.4 7,337.8
2010 1,954.9 3,997.9
as % of GDP
2008 21.7 22.8 23.3 22.4
2009 20.6 17.9 18.1 18.8
2010 19.8 19.1 1
expenditure
billion rubles
2008 1,332.7 2,995.6 4,594.2 7,570.9
2009 1,762.4 3,893.8 6,441.7 9,660.1
2010 2,199.5 4,386.2
as % of GDP
2008 15.0 15.6 14.9 18.3
2009 21.0 22.0 22.9 24.7
2010 22.3 21.0 1
surplus(+)/
deficit(-)
billion rubles
2008 600.0 1,375.1 2,561.5 1,705.1
2009 -29.7 -721.7 -1,327.2 -2,322.3
2010 -244.6 -388.3
as % of GDP
2008 6.7 7.2 8.3 4.1
2009 -0.4 -4.1 -4.7 -5.9
2010 -2.5 -1.9 1
General government budget
on accrual basis, as of end
of period
revenue
billion rubles
2008 3,334.2 7,543.7 12,178.9 16,169.1
2009 3,033.5 6,042.7 9,555.0 13,599.7
2010 3,463.1 7,603.5
as % of GDP
2008 37.4 39.4 39.6 39.0
2009 36.1 34.2 33.9 34.8
2010 35.1 36.4 1
expenditure
billion rubles
2008 2,335.9 5,515.5 8,741.5 14,157.0
2009 2,807.1 6,619.7 10,503.9 16,048.3
2010 3,220.7 7,331.2
as % of GDP
2008 26.2 28.8 28.4 34.2
2009 33.4 37.4 37.3 41.1
2010 32.7 35.1 1
surplus(+)/
deficit(-)
billion rubles
2008 998.4 2,028.1 3,437.4 2,012.1
2009 226.4 -577.0 -948.9 -2,448.6
2010 242.4 272.3
as % of GDP
2008 11.2 10.6 11.2 4.9
2009 2.7 -3.3 -3.4 -6.3
2010 2.5 1.3 1
Table 8
Russia’s key macroeconomic and financial indicators
Note. T able 8 is based on data compiled by the Bank of Russia, the Federal State Statistics Service, the Ministry of Finance
of the Russian Federation and the Federal T reasury.
Statistical Addendum
2010 Q2 33
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Socio-economic indicators
Nominal imputed average
monthly per employee wage
rubles
2008 15,424 16,962 17,556 18,966
2009 17,441 18,419 18,673 20,670
2010 19,485 20,734
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2008 128.0 129.2 129.0 119.5
2009 112.8 108.0 105.7 108.4
2010 110.5 111.9
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2008 128.0 128.6 128.7 127.2
2009 112.8 110.3 108.6 107.8
2010 110.5 111.2
Real imputed average monthly per employee wage, as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2008 113.4 112.5 112.2 105.0
2009 99.2 96.1 94.8 99.3
2010 103.1 105.6
Household money income (per capita monthly average), rubles
2008 12,278.1 14,828.4 15,662.4 16,973.9
2009 14,002.1 16,983.8 16,696.2 19,859.4
2010 15,930.4 18,488.7
Household real disposable
money income
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2008 107.8 106.1 104.9 93.7
2009 100.7 103.4 96.6 108.2
2010 107.3 102.8
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2008 107.8 … … 102.3
2009 100.7 102.1 100.0 102.3
2010 107.3 104.8
Household spending, as % of
income
purchase of goods and services
2008 77.1 71.8 74.4 73.7
2009 76.3 66.8 70.8 64.8
2010 73.0 67.9
compulsory payments and contributions
2008 12.1 12.4 12.6 12.0
2009 11.3 10.3 10.9 10.3
2010 9.6 10.2
growth in savings
2008 8.3 7.1 4.6 2.2
2009 8.7 17.0 12.8 17.7
2010 15.9 15.7
purchase of foreign currency
2008 6.9 4.7 5.7 13.6
2009 10.3 3.5 6.0 3.5
2010 3.2 3.2
cash on hand
2008 -4.4 4.0 2.7 -1.5
2009 -6.6 2.4 -0.5 3.7
2010 -1.7 3.0
Average imputed pension, total, rubles
2008 3,823 4,044 4,383 4,545
2009 4,614 5,151 5,330 5,670
2010 7,126 7,580
Real imputed pension
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2008 119.0 113.9 122.7 116.9
2009 106.1 113.3 109.1 114.2
2010 144.1 138.9
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2008 119.0 116.4 118.6 118.1
2009 106.1 109.8 109.5 110.7
2010 144.1 141.3
Total number of unemployed
(calculated using ILO
methodology)
million
2008 5.1 4.3 4.5 5.4
2009 6.8 6.5 6.0 6.1
2010 6.6 5.6
as % of economically active population
2008 6.7 5.6 5.9 7.1
2009 9.1 8.6 7.8 8.0
2010 8.8 7.4
Table 8 (continued)
34 2010 Q2
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Foreign economic activity indicators
Price of Urals crude
over period since start of year, $/barrel
2008 93.7 105.3 107.6 93.9
2009 43.2 50.5 56.3 60.7
2010 75.0 75.8
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2008 173.7 176.3 168.2 135.1
2009 46.1 48.0 52.3 64.6
2010 173.7 150.1
Exports of goods
over period since start of year, $ billion
2008 110.1 236.8 373.6 471.6
2009 57.3 125.4 207.8 303.4
2010 92.3 188.2 2
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2008 153.6 152.4 152.5 133.1
2009 52.0 52.9 55.6 64.3
2010 161.1 150.1 2
Imports of goods
over period since start of year, $ billion
2008 60.2 135.7 218.6 291.9
2009 38.5 82.4 131.5 191.8
2010 45.7 104.2 2
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2008 140.8 142.0 142.0 130.6
2009 63.9 60.7 60.1 65.7
2010 118.7 126.4 2
Current account balance (over period since start of year), $ billion
2008 38.7 65.6 95.1 103.7
2009 9.8 18.0 33.6 49.5
2010 33.3 50.2 2
Private sector net capital outflow (inflow) (over period since start of year), $ billion
2008 -24.4 15.7 -3.6 -133.9
2009 -35.2 -31.9 -65.9 -57.2
2010 -14.7 -10.2 2
Foreign investment in Russia’s non-financial sector
(Rosstat data)
over period since start of year, $ billion
2008 17.3 46.5 75.8 103.8
2009 12.0 32.2 54.7 81.9
2010 13.1
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2008 70.1 77.1 86.2 85.8
2009 69.7 69.1 72.2 79.0
2010 109.3
of which:
direct
over period since start of year, $ billion
2008 5.6 11.1 19.2 27.0
2009 3.2 6.1 10.0 15.9
2010 2.6
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2008 57.2 70.0 97.7 97.2
2009 57.0 55.0 51.9 58.9
2010 82.4
portfolio
over period since start of year, $ billion
2008 0.1 1.2 1.3 1.4
2009 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.9
2010 0.3
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2008 62.5 104.4 83.7 33.7
2009 93.5 74.9 78.6 62.3
2010 2.5 times
other
over period since start of year, $ billion
2008 11.5 34.3 55.3 75.3
2009 8.7 25.2 43.7 65.1
2010 10.2
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2008 78.7 79.0 82.8 84.7
2009 75.6 73.5 79.1 86.5
2010 117.1
Russia’s international reserves (as of end of period), $ billion
2008 512.6 569.0 556.8 426.3
2009 383.8 412.5 413.4 439.5
2010 447.4 461.2
Real ruble exchange rate indices (last month of
quarter), growth as % of December of previous
year 3
rubles per US dollar
2008 6.5 8.5 3.2 -1.1
2009 -15.4 -5.0 -3.9 -0.4
2010 3.6 -0.7
rubles per euro
2008 0.6 3.4 6.2 5.0
2009 -12.0 -7.0 -9.0 -6.5
2010 11.7 18.6
effective rate
2008 1.5 3.3 3.0 4.3
2009 -10.0 -4.2 -5.6 -3.9
2010 7.4 9.7
Table 8 (continued)
Statistical Addendum
2010 Q2 35
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Financial market indicators (including Sberbank interest rates)
Average for period
Overnight interbank credit
rate, % p.a.
in rubles
2008 3.9 4.1 6.0 8.6
2009 11.6 7.7 7.1 5.5
2010 4.2 3.1
in US dollars
2008 3.2 2.2 2.2 0.7
2009 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
2010 0.2 0.3
OFZ yields 4, % p.a.
2008 6.7 6.9 7.5 8.7
2009 10.5 10.3 10.6 9.1
2010 7.9 7.4
Interest rate on household
time deposits, % p.a.
up to 1 year in rubles
2008 7.0 7.1 7.5 9.0
2009 10.0 10.8 10.7 10.2
2010 8.5 7.1
over 1 year in rubles
2008 7.4 8.0 8.5 9.1
2009 10.0 10.3 9.3 9.2
2010 7.7 6.2
up to 1 year in US dollars
2008 5.1 5.8 5.3 6.5
2009 6.0 5.3 5.5 5.2
2010 4.3 3.7
over 1 year in US dollars
2008 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.8
2009 6.5 6.1 5.7 5.5
2010 4.9 4.8
Interest rate on credit to non-
financial organisations, % p.a.
up to 1 year in rubles
2008 10.9 11.2 12.0 14.9
2009 16.6 15.8 14.9 13.9
2010 12.8 11.4
over 1 year in rubles
2008 12.3 12.8 13.6 13.8
2009 15.1 16.2 15.8 14.7
2010 13.9 12.3
up to 1 year in US dollars
2008 8.1 8.0 8.9 10.9
2009 10.7 10.1 10.0 9.3
2010 8.3 7.5
over 1 year in US dollars
2008 9.3 9.9 9.4 11.3
2009 12.7 11.6 10.7 9.0
2010 10.3 8.8
Interest rate on ruble-denominated promissory notes discounted by banks, % p.a. 2008 10.7 11.0 12.1 14.1
2009 15.7 14.3 14.0 11.8
Interest rate on ruble-denominated promissory notes issued by non-financial organisations and discounted
by credit institutions, % p.a. 5 2010 14.1 11.6
Interest rate on ruble-denominated promissory notes issued by credit institutions and discounted
by credit institutions, % p.a. 5 2010 9.3 7.8
MICEX rate in «tomorrow» trades, ruble/$
2008 24.2286 23.6190 24.2718 27.2941
2009 34.4761 32.2032 31.3160 29.4737
2010 29.8318 30.2891
As of end of quarter
RTS index, points
2008 2,053.93 2,303.34 1,211.84 631.89
2009 689.63 987.02 1,254.52 1,444.61
2010 1,572.48 1,339.35
Refinance rate, % p.a.
2008 10.25 10.75 11.00 13.00
2009 13.00 11.50 10.00 8.75
2010 8.25 7.75
Table 8 (continued)
36 2010 Q2
Table 8 (end)
Year 1.01 1.04 1.07 1.10
Monetary indicators
M0, billion rubles
2008 3,702.2 3,475.5 3,724.9 3,904.2
2009 3,794.8 3,278.3 3,522.5 3,485.6
2010 4,038.1 3,986.1 4,367.7
M2, billion rubles
2008 13,272.1 13,382.9 14,244.7 14,374.6
2009 13,493.2 12,111.7 13,161.0 13,649.5
2010 15,697.7 15,996.5 17,190.3
Broad money, billion rubles
2008 14,636.7 14,918.3 15,926.6 16,067.8
2009 16,774.7 16,308.4 17,055.4 17,523.4
2010 19,520.1 19,652.8 20,841.3
Net foreign assets, billion rubles
2008 9,914.1 10,535.2 11,274.3 12,284.5
2009 12,191.4 12,881.1 13,043.1 13,232.1
2010 13,922.9 13,774.2 14,734.2
Domestic claims, billion rubles
2008 8,325.9 8,437.2 8,760.6 8,614.9
2009 10,645.1 10,307.4 11,076.4 11,716.8
2010 13,345.8 13,474.8 14,306.1
Broad monetary base, billion rubles
2008 5,513.3 4,871.4 5,422.9 5,317.8
2009 5,578.7 4,298.8 4,967.6 4,803.7
2010 6,467.3 6,363.9 7,244.1
Balances of correspondent accounts, billion rubles
2008 802.2 596.3 592.4 702.9
2009 1,027.6 431.7 471.4 545.4
2010 900.3 579.5 603.6
Monetisation of the economy (by M2 aggregate), %
2008 31.9 32.8 32.9 32.7
2009 32.9 32.7 33.1 33.5
2010 33.8 34.4 35.4 1
Money multiplier
by broad monetary base
2008 2.41 2.75 2.63 2.70
2009 2.42 2.82 2.65 2.84
2010 2.43 2.51 2.37
change since start of year, %
2008 10.3 6 14.1 9.1 12.3
2009 0.5 6 16.5 9.5 17.5
2010 0.4 6 3.6 -2.4
Foreign exchange rates
rubles per US dollar
2008 24.55 23.50 23.41 25.37
2009 29.39 33.90 31.04 30.01
2010 30.19 29.50 31.26
rubles per euro
2008 35.93 37.09 36.97 36.50
2009 41.43 44.89 43.85 43.89
2010 43.46 39.57 38.21
1 Preliminary data.
2 Estimate.
3 (+) signifies appreciation of the ruble, (-) signifies depreciation of the ruble.
4 Effective OFZ market portfolio indicator.
5 Owing to the coming into force of Bank of Russia Ordinance No. 2332-U of November 12, 2009, the set of indicators used to characterise credit institutions’ interest rate policy on the
promissory note (PN) market changed from January 2010. Specifically, the single yield indicator for the PN’s discounted by banks has been replaced by two indicators: the yield indicator for
PN’s issued by credit institutions and the yield indicator for PN’s issued by non-financial organisations. These indicators are calculated only for operations with PN’s denominated in Russian
rubles.
6 Relative to beginning of previous year.
Statistical Addendum
2010 Q2 37
Table 9
Bank of Russia interest rates in January-July 2010 (% p.a.)
Instrument Liquidity provision/
absorption period
From
1.01.10 to
23.02.10
From
24.02.10 to
28.03.10
From
29.03.10 to
29.04.10
From
30.04.10 to
31.05.10
From
1.06.10
Providing liquidity at offered bids (including by auction)
Repo operations 1
1 day 6.00 5.75 5.50 5.25 5.00
7 days 6.00 5.75 5.50 5.25 5.00
3 months 7.50 7.25 7.00 6.75 6.50
6 months 8.00 7.75 7.50 7.25 7.00
1 year 8.50 8.25 8.00 7.75 7.50
Currency swap operations 2 1 day 8.75 8.50 8.25 8.00 7.75
Unsecured loans up to 1 year Minimum rate is set when auction is announced
Lombard loans 1, 3
7 days 5.25 5.00
14 days 6.00 5.75 5.50
3 months 7.50 7.25 7.00 6.75 6.50
6 months 8.00 7.75 7.50 7.25 7.00
1 year 8.50 8.25 8.00 7.75 7.50
Providing liquidity at fixed rates
Overnight loans 3, 4 1 day 8.75 8.50 8.25 8.00 7.75
Lombard loans 3
1 day 7.75 7.50 7.25 7.00 6.75
7 days 7.75 7.50 7.25 7.00 6.75
30 days 7.75 7.50 7.25 7.00 6.75
Repo operations
1 day 7.75 7.50 7.25 7.00 6.75
7 days 7.75 7.50 7.25 7.00 6.75
1 year 8.50 8.25 8.00 7.75 7.50
Loans secured by «non-market» assets
or guarantees 4
up to 90 days 7.75 7.50 7.25 7.00 6.75
91 to 180 days 8.25 8.00 7.75 7.50 7.25
181 to 365 days 8.75 8.50 8.25 8.00 7.75
Absorbing liquidity at fixed rates
Deposit operations
Overnight 2.75 2.50 2.50
Tom-next, spot-next and demand 3.50 3.25 3.00 2.75 2.50
1 week, spot-week 4.00 3.75 3.50 3.25 2.75
1 Minimum interest rate set by Bank of Russia Board of Directors.
2 Interest rate set on the ruble part when determining minimum offered swap difference.
3 Pursuant to Bank of Russia Regulation No. 236-P of August 4, 2003.
4 Pursuant to Bank of Russia Regulation No. 312-P of November 12, 2007.
38 2010 Q2
Table 10
Credit institutions’ required reserve ratios (from July 1, 2007 to October 31, 2009, %)
Required reserve ratio for bank obligations
to non-resident banks in Russian
and foreign currency
Required reserve ratio for obligations
to individuals in Russian currency
Required reserve ratio for other bank
obligations in Russian and foreign currency
July 1, 2007—October 10, 2007 4.5 4.0 4.5
October 11, 2007—January 14, 2008 3.5 3.0 3.5
January 15, 2008—February 29, 2008 4.5 4.0 4.5
March 1, 2008—June 30, 2008 5.5 4.5 5.0
July 1, 2008—August 31, 2008 7.0 5.0 5.5
September 1, 2008—September 17, 2008 8.5 5.5 6.0
September 18, 2008—October 14, 2008 4.5 1.5 2.0
October 15, 2008—April 30, 2009 0.5 0.5 0.5
May 1, 2009—May 31, 2009 1.0 1.0 1.0
June 1, 2009—June 30, 2009 1.5 1.5 1.5
July 1, 2009—July 31, 2009 2.0 2.0 2.0
August 1, 2009—October 31, 2009 2.5 2.5 2.5
Table 11
Credit institutions’ required reserve ratios
(from November 1, 2009 up to present, %)
Required reserve ratio for
obligations to non-resident
corporates in Russian
currency
Required reserve ratio for
obligations to non-resident
corporates in foreign
currency
Required reserve ratio for
obligations to individuals
in Russian currency
Required reserve ratio for
obligations to individuals
in foreign currency
Required reserve ratio for
other bank obligations
in Russian currency
Required reserve ratio for
other bank obligations
in foreign currency
November 1, 2009— 2.5
© The Central Bank of the Russian Federation, 2010
Research and Information Department