Goushi Kataoka: Economic activity, prices, and monetary policy in Japan
Central bank: boj | Type: speech | Date: 2019-02-27

Bank

of

JapanFebruary 27, 2019

## Economic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy in JapanSpeech at a Meeting with Business Leaders in Kagawa

## Goushi KataokaMember of the Policy Board(English translation based on the Japanese original)

## I.

Economic Activity and Prices

## A.

Overseas EconomiesI would like to start my speech by looking at developments in overseas economies.After the global economy had grown synchronously since the second half of 2016, differences in

growth

rates

among

countries

have

recently

become

evident.

I

consider

that

overseas economies have now leveled off and are in a state where due attention should be paid to the effects

of

various

risks.

According

to

the

January

2019 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as presented in Chart 1, the global economic growth rate is projected to remain around 3.5 percent through 2020.

However, when compared with the April 2018 WEO forecast, downward revisions are evident, as seen on the right-hand

side

in

Chart

1.

In

addition,

the

global

Purchasing

Managers'

Index

(PMI),

as shown in Chart 2, has declined to a level seen during the global economic destabilization in 2016 for both manufacturing and services, although they are still above the 50-point level.

Thus, the pace of overseas economic growth as a whole for 2019 seems to have weakened compared with that for 2018.Let me elaborate on current developments by major countries and regions.

With regard to the U.S. economy, interest rate-sensitive housing investment has been weak and some soft data have been showing signs of peaking out against the background of a rise in U.S. interest rates, while growth in exports has been decelerating.

Nevertheless, private consumption has been supported by tax cuts and a favorable employment situation.

As for the European economy, its pace of growth has been decelerating, partly due to the effects of a tightening of European Union

(EU)

emission

standards

and

the

political

situations

in

Italy

and

France,

although domestic demand has been more or less firm.

As with the European economy, the Chinese economy has been decelerating, and the impact of this deceleration on emerging economies is a matter of concern.The following factors continue to pose a risk to the outlook: U.S. macroeconomic policies and the consequences of protectionist moves, the impact these have on the global economy and financial markets, and negotiations on the United Kingdom's exit from the EU.

Futuredevelopments require close attention as the effects of these risks have already been seen in some economies.

## B.

Japan's EconomyNext, I would like to turn to Japan's economy.

Starting with recent developments, the real GDP growth rate for the October-December quarter of 2018 recovered to positive territory after a decline in the previous quarter.

This was partly due to the rebound from the decrease in

domestic

demand

caused

mainly

by

natural

disasters

in

the

July-September

quarter.

However,

the

recovery

from

negative

growth

is

losing

momentum

amid

heightening uncertainties regarding overseas economies.

Chart 3 shows the real GDP growth rate and the breakdown by component.

While private consumption and private business fixed investment picked up, the contribution of external demand further decreased within negative territory compared with that

for

the

July-September

quarter,

partly

due

to

an

increase

in

imports.

Although exports increased after a decline in the previous quarter, the overall rate of increase remained relatively low given a drop due to the effects of supply-side constraints caused by natural disasters. 1 The low rate of increase in exports is attributable mainly to a decrease in orders

from

China

against

the

background

of

U.S.-China

trade

friction

and

a

gradual deceleration in overseas economies.Turning to the outlook for Japan's economy, as shown in Chart 4, the medians of forecasts made by the Bank of Japan's Policy Board members for real GDP growth rates presented in the January 2019 Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (Outlook Report) are 0.9 percent for both fiscal 2018 and 2019, and 1.0 percent for fiscal 2020.

My view, however, is that the pace of growth will be more modest than these forecasts.

Specifically, I would project

the growth rate for fiscal 2018 to be around 0.5 percent, as the pace of economic recovery will likely remain moderate amid the heightening uncertainties regarding overseas economies.

For both fiscal 2019 and 2020, the growth rate will likely be in the range of 0.5-1.0 percent.

The impact on households of the consumption tax hike scheduled to take place in October 2019 will likely be smaller than that of the previous hike in 2014, as the government will take1

Attention should also be paid to the fact that real GDP growth rates on an annualized quarter-onquarter basis have been on a declining trend since the January-March quarter of 2018, and that the rate for the October-December quarter fell for the first time since the October-December quarter of 2014, which followed the consumption tax hike in April that year.measures

to

smooth

out

possible

fluctuations

in

demand.

Nevertheless,

it

is

a

matter

of concern that the pace of expansion in consumption since fiscal 2014 has been quite slow and households' sentiment indicators such as the Consumer Confidence Index have continued to decline

since

2018

(Chart

5). 2 Moreover,

I

consider

that

the

pace

of

pick-up

in

Japan's economy will likely be slow from the scheduled consumption tax hike in October onward, mainly because the heightening of uncertainties in the global economy, which I mentioned earlier, might limit business activity to a certain degree through expectations of a slowdown in external demand.

## C.

Recent Developments and Outlook for PricesNext, I will move on to price developments.

The year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI) for all items less fresh food for January 2019 was 0.8 percent, as shown in the

left-hand

graph

of

Chart

6.

Looking

at

the

CPI

in

detail,

it

should

be

noted

that

the contribution of a rise in energy prices to the CPI was significant at 0.4 percentage point, and the rate of increase for all items less fresh food and energy, which directly reflects supplydemand conditions, stood at only 0.4 percent year on year.

The right-hand graph of Chart 6 shows some indicators that represent the underlying developments in consumer prices.

These indicators have continued to show relatively weak developments.The important indicators that affect underlying price developments are the output gap and medium- to long-term inflation expectations.

The output gap, as shown in the left-hand graph of

Chart

7,

has

remained

positive,

reflecting

improvements

in the capital

stock

and labor markets.

Nevertheless, the positive output gap shrank slightly for the July-September quarter of

2018,

mainly

due

to

the

effects

of

natural

disasters.

Inflation

expectations

have

been somewhat weak, as indicated in the right-hand graph of Chart 7.

I am convinced that this is attributable to the adverse effects of prolonged deflation in the past and recent weak price developments.

In addition, in my view, the credibility of achieving the Bank's 2 percent price stability target has not been sufficiently enhanced among the public, and this is also affecting inflation expectations.2

Looking at the Consumer Confidence Index, the decrease in the consumer perception index since 2018 was mainly attributable to a decline in perceptions of "employment" (job stability or ease of finding a job) and "overall livelihood."Turning to the outlook for prices, the medians of the Policy Board members' forecasts for the year-on-year rate of change in the CPI (all items less fresh food) presented in the January 2019 Outlook Report are 0.8 percent for fiscal 2018, 0.9 percent for fiscal 2019, and 1.4 percent for fiscal 2020, excluding the direct effects of the scheduled consumption tax hike and policies concerning the provision of free education (Chart 4). 3 Price projections have continued to be revised downward, reflecting the weak price developments, but the Bank's view

is

that

the

momentum

of

prices

toward

the

2

percent

price

stability

target

will

be maintained.

However, I dissented from the relevant description in the January Outlook Report as I think the possibility of the inflation rate rising toward 2 percent is low at the moment and that the momentum of inflation has not been strengthened.

There are four main reasons behind my position.First, under the present circumstances, the effects of a widening of the output gap on inflation might have become less pronounced. 4 Second, there is a possibility that the expanding trend of the output gap will not continue.

If the expanding trend of the output gap becomes even more robust, firms will likely increase prices and wages to better reflect a rise in costs and a tightening of labor market conditions.

These firms' moves will likely progress more than an increase in households' tolerance of price rises.

However, taking account of the outlook for Japan's economy, I consider that there is a strong possibility that the expanding trend of the output gap will rather abate going forward. 5 Third, based on the first two points, there is little prospect

for

the

time

being

of

an

increase

in

inflation

expectations

through

the

adaptive formation

mechanism

pushing

up

the

observed

inflation

rate.

Fourth,

it

is

unlikely

for inflation to be spurred by an increase in inflation expectations on the back of an enhancement3

If

a

reduction in charges for mobile phone services

takes place, it is expected to put downward pressure on prices in the short term.4

From the second half of 2016 through 2018, the output gap estimated by the Bank's staff widened from a level of excess supply to excess demand of around 1.5 percent.

Meanwhile, the year-on-year rate of change in the CPI for all items less fresh food and energy remained more or less unchanged at around 0.3 percent.5 As I mentioned in section I.

B., the pace of pick-up in Japan's economy will likely be slow from the scheduled consumption tax hike in October 2019 onward, mainly considering the following factors: in

a

situation

where

the pace

of

expansion

in consumption since fiscal 2014 has been quite slow, households'

sentiment

indicators

have

continued

to

decline

since

2018,

and

the

heightening

of uncertainties

in

the

global

economy

might

limit

business

activity

to

a

certain

degree

through expectations of a slowdown in external demand.of the credibility of achieving the price stability target.

This is because such enhancement is unlikely

in

a

situation

where

the

monetary

policy

remains

unchanged

amid

downward revisions to the Policy Board members' price projections.

## II.

Conduct of Monetary PolicyLet me first outline the Bank's current monetary policy, based on the outlook for economic activity and prices that I have described.

I would then like to touch on my opinion about the Bank's monetary policy conduct.The Bank conducts monetary policy under the framework of Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with Yield Curve Control, aiming to achieve the 2 percent price stability target.

This current framework consists of three major components (Chart 8).The first is yield curve control, in which the Bank sets the short-term policy interest rate at minus 0.1 percent and the operating target for long-term interest rates at around 0 percent.

As for long-term interest rates, the Bank purchases Japanese government bonds (JGBs) while allowing some degree of fluctuation in long-term yields, depending mainly on developments in economic activity and prices.The second component is the purchase of risk assets, including exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

The Bank purchases ETFs so that their amount outstanding will increase at an annual pace of about 6 trillion yen.

With a view to lowering risk premia of asset prices in an appropriate manner, the Bank may increase or decrease the amount of purchases depending on market conditions.The

third

component

is

the

Bank's

public

commitment

regarding

the

future

conduct

of monetary policy.

In July 2018, the Bank introduced forward guidance for short- and longterm interest rates, stating that "[t]he Bank intends to maintain the current extremely low levels of short- and long-term interest rates for an extended period of time, taking into account uncertainties regarding economic activity and prices including the effects of the consumption tax

hike

scheduled

to

take

place

in

October

2019." The

Bank

aims

to

strengthen

market confidence and expectations regarding the sustainability of monetary easing by making acommitment

to

the

levels

of

future

policy

interest

rates,

in

addition

to

the

inflationovershooting

commitment

regarding

the

monetary

base

that

has

been

in

place

since September 2016.Of these three components, I dissented from two: the yield curve control, and the Bank's commitment

regarding

the

future

conduct

of

monetary

policy.

As

presented

in

the

joint statement by the Bank and the government, the Bank's mission is to achieve the price stability target at the earliest possible time.

With this in mind, as for the yield curve control, in the current situation where the observed inflation rate is still evidently far from the 2 percent price

stability

target,

I

consider

it

appropriate

to

strengthen

monetary

easing

in

order

to encourage further widening of the output gap within positive territory. 6 At the same time, I judge that it is necessary to strengthen the Bank's commitment in order to promote a rise in inflation

expectations. 7 Moreover,

to

overcome

deflation

completely

amid

heightening uncertainties regarding economic and price developments, I consider it important to influence the expectations and forecasts of market participants and economic entities by implementing the appropriate means to further coordinate fiscal and monetary policy. 8Furthermore, I have a difference of opinion regarding the Bank's monetary policy conduct of continuing to persist with current monetary easing until the price stability target is achieved.

It is necessary to pay due attention to the fact that sustaining the situation where the output gap is in positive territory over a prolonged period under bold monetary easing entails the risk of accelerating business and financial cycles thereafter. 9 Due attention is also required6 Specifically,

I

consider

it

necessary

to

strengthen

monetary

easing

so

that

yields

on

JGBs

with maturities of 10 years and longer would broadly be lowered further.7 Specifically,

I

consider

it

would

be

necessary

for

the

Bank

to

make

a

commitment

to

taking additional easing measures if it revised downward its assessment of medium- to long-term inflation expectations.8

I would argue that the mindset of firms and households in Japan was formed under the prolonged deflationary

environment

after

the

mid-1990s,

such

that

it

has

become

rational

to

assume

that economic

activity

is

sustainable

without

inflation.

In

a

situation

where

the

anchor

of

inflation expectations has been lost, I believe that to achieve the 2 percent price stability target and maintain the target price level in a stable manner, it is important not only to enhance monetary easing, but also to further strengthen the coordination of fiscal and monetary policy -- that is, a "policy mix."9 Given that the output gap in Japan was in negative territory for a long period, some would argue that it is necessary to maintain the output gap within positive territory for a long period in order to changeto the fact that, if monetary easing is continued for a protracted period, achieving the price stability

target

would

become

less

clear

as

uncertainties

regarding

the

outlook

for

the economy would be prolonged.

In addition, the longer monetary easing is continued, the higher the burden on an exit strategy becomes, and the more the side effects of monetary easing accumulate.

Therefore, I believe that in considering the possible side effects, the discussion should be centered on finding ways to achieve the price stability target at the earliest possible time in order to prevent monetary easing from continuing for a protracted period.

## III.

Germany's Industrial Policy and Its Implications for Japan 10Let me now take a slightly different approach and talk about Germany's industrial policy.

I am assuming many of

you

have

heard

the

term

"Industrie

4.0"

in

relation

to

Germany's industrial policy.

In my understanding, "Industrie 4.0" is a strategic initiative that aims for the self-optimization of production, not only by improving the efficiency of production processes and the quality of products and making small-batch production of a large variety of products using

digital

technology,

but

also

by

predicting

changes

in

business

environment

and enhancing the ability of production to adapt to such changes.

In other words, "Industrie 4.0" goes

beyond

the

idea

of

digitizing

production

processes;

it

embodies

the

concept

of optimizing production activities using digital technology so that they are able to adapt to environmental changes."Industrie 4.0" is a national strategic initiative which was set forth by the German federal government in 2011.

The federal government continues to play a leading role in implementing the

policy.

The

framework

of

"Industrie

4.0"

in

Chart

9

shows

the

involvement

of

the government, with ministers of the federal government serving as chairs, and an organizational structure which encourages extensive cooperation across the public, private, and academic sectors, including industrialists, labor unions, and research institutions, as well as within eachthe structure in which the inflation rate has remained at a low level.

In view of the risks I mention, however, I believe that it is best to achieve the price stability target at the earliest possible time, not only by widening the output gap within positive territory, but also by raising inflation expectations through strengthening the Bank's commitment.10

I would like to express my sincere gratitude here to Mr. Georg K.

Löer, President of North RhineWestphalia (NRW) Japan K.K. and Mr. Kurando Ogi, Representative in Japan of the Saxony Economic Development Corporation for their assistance in compiling this section.sector, from the management level to the field level.

In other words, the government not only drafts the basis of the strategy and promotes the policy, but a structure has been established in which the government also gathers opinions and concerns from small and medium-sized enterprises in order to spread the effects of the policy to the very end of the value chain.

Moreover, a virtuous cycle in which cooperation among the public, private, and academic sectors is strengthened has become possible, partly because ministers of economic affairs in German state government are often highly specialized and researchers at institutions such as universities are very keen to have their findings used in business.In addition to the federal government's "Industrie 4.0," local governments in Germany are active in supporting start-ups as a means to promote industrial development.

Knowledge, skills, and funds are all essential throughout the process of starting up a new business: from the early stages of generating business ideas and developing business plans, through raising funds and merchandizing products, until the business can finally stand on its own.

In each of these

stages,

the

local

government

provides

considerable

support

and

invests

in

the

new business on its own behalf to actively fulfill its role as a catalyst to encourage investment in newly established enterprises.As indicated in Chart 10, Japan and Germany have common features in that the share of manufacturing in all industries is large, and that the birthrate is declining and the population aging.

Although the pace of aging for managers of small and medium-sized enterprises has been more moderate in Germany compared with Japan, smooth business succession and the development

of

newly

established

enterprises

are

important

tasks

for

Germany

as

well.

Another common challenge is that both Japan and Germany need to enhance added value for their domestic manufacturing in order to tackle the intensification of global competition in manufacturing industry caused by the rise of emerging economies.On the other hand, there are also differences between Japan and Germany.

One particularly significant difference is that small and medium-sized enterprises in Germany are more active in expanding their businesses overseas and exporting their products than those in Japan.

As a result, there are many "hidden champions" in Germany -- that is, enterprises that have global market shares and are leaders in a particular niche business area.Given the declining birthrate and aging population, I believe that there are many lessons Japan can learn from Germany's industrial policy and from its small and medium-sized enterprises.

Germany's industrial policy aims to enhance the added value in domestic industries through extensive

cooperation

across

and

within

the

public,

private,

and

academic

sectors,

and

it places importance on supporting innovative enterprises.

Small and medium-sized enterprises in Germany seek to expand their businesses overseas on their own in search of new markets unlike those in Japan whose overseas business expansion typically depends on the corporate groups they belong to.

Since Japan and Germany share many common features, I believe that they can expand each other's business opportunities by strengthening their cooperation.Thank you for your attention.

## Economic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy in JapanSpeech at a Meeting with Business Leaders in KagawaFebruary 27, 2019

## Goushi KataokaMember of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan

## World Economic Outlook by the IMF|

|

|

January 2019 forecasts (y/y %chg.) |

January 2019 forecasts (y/y %chg.) |

January 2019 forecasts (y/y %chg.) | Difference from April 2018 forecasts (% pts.)

| Difference from April 2018 forecasts (% pts.)

| Difference from April 2018 forecasts (% pts.)

||----------|----------------|--------------------------------------|--------------------------------------|--------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------||

|

|

2018

|

2019

|

2020

| 2018

| 2019

| 2020

|| World

| World

|

3.7 |

3.5 |

3.6 | － 0.2

| － 0.4

| － 0.2

|| Advanced | Japan

|

0.9 |

1.1 |

0.5 | － 0.3

| ＋ 0.2

| ＋ 0.2

|| Advanced | United States

|

2.9 |

2.5 |

1.8 | 0.0

| － 0.2

| － 0.1

|| Advanced | Euro Area

|

1.8 |

1.6 |

1.7 | － 0.6

| － 0.4

| 0.0

|| Advanced | Germany

|

1.5 |

1.3 |

1.6 | － 1.0

| － 0.7

| ＋ 0.1

|| Advanced | France

|

1.5 |

1.5 |

1.6 | － 0.6

| － 0.5

| － 0.2

||

| United Kingdom |

1.4 |

1.5 |

1.6 | － 0.2

| 0.0

| ＋ 0.1

||

| China

|

6.6 |

6.2 |

6.2 | 0.0

| － 0.2

| － 0.1

|| Emerging | Brazil

|

1.3 |

2.5 |

2.2 | － 1.0

| 0.0

| 0.0

|| Emerging | India

|

7.3 |

7.5 |

7.7 | － 0.1

| － 0.3

| － 0.2

|| Emerging | Russia

|

1.7 |

1.6 |

1.7 | 0.0

| ＋ 0.1

| ＋ 0.2

|Note: As for the January 2019 forecasts, figures for 2018 are estimates and those for 2019 onward are projections.

All of the figures for the April 2018 forecasts are projections.

For India, figures are presented on a fiscal year basis.Source: IMF, 'World Economic Outlook (January 2019, April 2018).'

## Global PMINote: Figures are from the J.P. Morgan Global PMI.

Figures above 50 indicate improvement and below 50 show deterioration on a month-on-month basis.Source: IHS Markit (© and database right IHS Markit Ltd 2019.

All rights reserved.)

## Real GDP Growth and Breakdown by ComponentSource: Cabinet Office, "Quarterly Estimates of GDP for October-December 2018 (First Preliminary Estimates)."

## Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (January 2019 Outlook Report)medians of Policy Board members' forecasts, y/y % chg.|

|

| Real GDP

| CPI (all items less fresh food)

| (Reference) Excluding the effects of the consumption tax hike and policies concerning the provision of free education

||-------------|--------------------------------|------------|-----------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|| Fiscal 2018 | Fiscal 2018

| ＋ 0.9

| ＋ 0.8

| ＋ 0.8

||

| Forecasts made in October 2018 | ＋ 1.4

| ＋ 0.9

| ＋ 0.9

|| Fiscal 2019 | Fiscal 2019

| ＋ 0.9

| ＋ 1.1

| ＋ 0.9

||

| Forecasts made in October 2018 | ＋ 0.8

| ＋ 1.6

| ＋ 1.4

|| Fiscal 2020 | Fiscal 2020

| ＋ 1.0

| ＋ 1.5

| ＋ 1.4

||

| Forecasts made in October 2018 | ＋ 0.8

| ＋ 1.6

| ＋ 1.5

|Note: The direct effect of the consumption tax hike on the CPI for fiscal 2019 and fiscal 2020 is estimated to be 0.5 percentage points for each year.

The direct effects of policies concerning the provision of free education on the CPI for fiscal 2019 and fiscal 2020 are estimated to be minus 0.3 percentage points and minus 0.4 percentage points, respectively.Source: Bank of Japan, "Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (January 2019)."

## Household Consumption

## Consumption Before and After Tax HikesConsumer Confidence IndexNote: The latest figures are as of December 2001 and December 2018.

Source: Cabinet Office, "Synthetic Consumption Index."s.a.464442403836CY 2013

14

15

16

17

18

1913141516171819Note: Households of two or more persons.

Consumer Confidence Index is composed of four categories: "overall livelihood," "income growth," "employment," and "willingness to buy durable goods." There are discontinuities between March and April 2013, and between September and October 2018, due to changes in the survey method.Source: Cabinet Office, "Consumer Confidence Survey."improved worsened

## Consumer Prices

## Consumer Price Index

## Measures of Underlying InflationNote: Figures are adjusted for changes in the consumption tax rate.Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, "Consumer Price Index."Notes: 1.

The latest figures are as of December 2018.2.

The diffusion index is defined as the share of increasing items minus that of decreasing items.

The share of increasing/decreasing items is the share of items in the CPI (less fresh food, consumption tax adjusted) whose price increased/decreased from a year earlier.Sources: Bank of Japan, "Measures of Underlying Inflation"; Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.

## Output Gap and Inflation Expectations Chart 7

## Synthetic Indicators of InflationNotes: 1.

The data of the output gap in the left-hand graph are the estimates by the Bank's staff as of January 30, 2019.

The CPI figures are adjusted for changes in the consumption tax rate.2.

In the right-hand graph, semiannual data from the Consensus Forecasts up through 2014/Q2 are linearly interpolated.

Figures for the Bank's Opinion Survey on General Public's Views and Behavior exclude inflation expectations by respondents whose annual inflation expectations were ±5% or greater.

The output prices DI in the Tankan (Short-Term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan) represents the difference between the share of firms that raised prices in the preceding three months and the share of firms that lowered prices.3.

In the right-hand graph, inflation expectations of firms are taken from the Tankan and those of households are taken from the Bank's Opinion Survey .

For experts' and markets' inflation expectations, data from the Consensus Forecasts, the QUICK Survey, and the inflation swap rate are used as indicated by their respective lines.Sources: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, 'Consumer Price Index (Japan; 2015-base)'; Consensus Economics Inc., 'Consensus Forecasts'; QUICK, "QUICK Monthly Market Survey (Bonds)"; Bloomberg; Bank of Japan.

## Outline of the Bank's Monetary Policy

## (1) Yield Curve ControlShort-term rate: The Bank will apply minus 0.1 percent to the Policy-Rate Balances.

Long-term rate: The Bank will purchase JGBs so that 10-year JGB yields will remain at around zero percent.

While doing so, the yields may move upward or downward to some extent mainly depending on developments in economic activity and prices.

## (2) Asset PurchasesThe Bank will purchase ETFs and J-REITs so that their amounts outstanding will increase at annual paces of about 6 trillion yen and about 90 billion yen, respectively.

With a view to lowering risk premia of asset prices in an appropriate manner, the Bank may increase or decrease the amount of purchases depending on market conditions.

## (3) Commitment- Overshooting commitment: The Bank will continue expanding the monetary base until the year-on-year rate of increase in the observed CPI (all items less fresh food) exceeds 2 percent and stays above the target in a stable manner.Forward guidance for policy rates: The Bank intends to maintain the current extremely low levels of short- and long-term interest rates for an extended period of time, taking into account uncertainties regarding economic activity and prices including the effects of the consumption tax hike scheduled to take place in October 2019.

## Structure of "Industrie 4.0"

## Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy and Federal Minister of Education and Research

## Technical/practical expertise decision-making

## Activities on the market

## Steering Body-  Strategy development, technical coordination, and decisionmaking-  Members: Federal Ministers, business representatives, and chairs of working groups

## Working Groups1.

Reference architecture, standardization and standards2.

Technology and application scenarios3.

Legal framework4.

Work, education, and training5.

Digital business models6.

Security of networked systems

## SecretariatSource: Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy in Germany, 'Structure of the 'Industrie 4.0' platform.'

## Industrial Consortia and Initiatives-  Implementation on the market-  Test beds-  Examples of applications

## Standardization Council

## Labs NetworkChart 10

## Similarities and Differences between Germany and Japan- (2) Declining birthrate and aging populationNote: Figures are as of CY 2018 for Germany and as of FY 2017 for Japan.Sources:

Statistisches Bundesamt, "National accounts"; Cabinet Office, "Annual Report on National Accounts for 2017."Sources: KfW; The Small and Medium Enterprise Agency, "White Paper on Small and Medium Enterprises in Japan"; World Bank.

## (3) Share of exports by SMEs

## (4) International comparison of "hidden champion"Note: Horizontal axes are CY for Germany and FY for Japan.

The latest figure available for Japan is for fiscal 2015.Note: The three criteria to be considered a "hidden champion" are the following: (a) the firm is among the top three in the global market or is number one for a particular niche business area on the continent where the firm is based, (b) the firm has less than 5 bil. euro in revenue, and (c) the firm is little known to the general public.Sources: OECD, "Exports by Business Size"; The Small and Medium Enterprise Agency, 'White Paper on Small and Medium Enterprises in Japan.'Source: Hermann Simon, Hidden Champion of the 21st Century.