Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision - November 2012 | Media Releases | RBA
Central bank: rba | Type: statement | Date: 2012-11-06

Media Release
Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor:
Monetary Policy Decision
6 November 2012
At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.25 per
Global growth is forecast to be a little below average for a time. Risks to the outlook
are still seen to be on the downside, largely as a result of the situation
in Europe, where economic activity is still contracting. Risks elsewhere
seem more balanced. The United States is recording moderate growth, while
recent data from China suggest growth there has stabilised. Around Asia generally,
growth has been dampened by the more moderate Chinese expansion and the weakness
in Europe.
Key commodity prices for Australia remain significantly lower than earlier in the
year, though trends have been more mixed over the past couple of months,
with some prices recovering some ground while others declined further. The
terms of trade have declined by about 13 per cent since the peak last
year, but are likely to remain historically high.
Financial markets have responded positively over the past few months to signs of
progress in addressing Europe's financial problems, but expectations
for further progress remain high. Long-term interest rates faced by highly
rated sovereigns, including Australia, remain at exceptionally low levels.
Capital markets remain open to corporations and well-rated banks, and Australian
banks have had no difficulty accessing funding, including on an unsecured
basis. Borrowing conditions for large corporations are similarly attractive.
Share markets have generally risen over recent months.
In Australia, most indicators available for this meeting suggest that growth has
been running close to trend over the past year, led by very large increases
in capital spending in the resources sector. Looking ahead, the peak in resource
investment is likely to occur next year, at a lower level than expected six
months ago. As this peak approaches, the Board will be monitoring the strength
of other components of demand.
Some of the consumption strength in the first half of 2012 was temporary, but there
have been some signs of ongoing growth, though a return to very strong growth
in consumption is unlikely. While investment in dwellings has been subdued
for some time, over recent months there have been some indications of a prospective
improvement. Non-residential building investment has remained weak. Public
spending is forecast to be subdued.
Recent outcomes on inflation were slightly higher than expected, though they still
show inflation consistent with the medium-term target, with underlying measures
around 2½ per cent over the year to September, and headline CPI
inflation a little lower than that. The introduction of the carbon price
affected consumer prices in the September quarter, and there could be some
further small effects over the next couple of quarters. With the labour market
having generally softened somewhat in recent months, and unemployment edging
higher, conditions should work to contain pressure on labour costs in sectors
other than those directly affected by the current strength in resources.
This and some continuing improvement in productivity performance will be
needed to keep inflation low, since the effects on prices of the earlier
exchange rate appreciation are now waning. The Bank's assessment remains
that inflation will be consistent with the target over the next one to two
Over the past year, monetary policy has become more accommodative. Interest rates
for borrowers have declined to be clearly below their medium-term averages
and savers are facing increased incentives to look for assets with higher
returns. While the impact of these changes takes some time to work through
the economy, there are signs of easier conditions starting to have some of
the expected effects. Business demand for external funding has increased
this year, the housing market has strengthened and share prices have risen
in line with markets overseas. The exchange rate, though, remains higher
than might have been expected, given the observed decline in export prices
and the weaker global outlook.
Further effects of actions already taken to ease monetary policy can be expected
over time. The Board will continue to monitor those effects, together with
information about the various other factors affecting the outlook for growth
and inflation. At today's meeting, with prices data slightly higher than
expected and recent information on the world economy slightly more positive,
the Board judged that the stance of monetary policy was appropriate for the
time being.
Dr Christopher Kent
Assistant Governor (Economic)
Phone: +61 2 9551 8800
Dr Guy Debelle
Assistant Governor (Financial Markets)
Phone: +61 2 9551 8200
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