NBP MPC Press Release - 2021-03-03
Central bank: nbp | Type: decision | Date: 2021-03-03

Warsaw, 3 March 2021 
 
Information from the meeting of the Monetary Policy 
Council held on 3 March 2021 
The Council decided to keep the NBP interest rates unchanged: 
 
• reference rate at 0.10%; 
• lombard rate at 0.50%; 
• deposit rate at 0.00%; 
• rediscount rate at 0.11%; 
• discount rate at 0.12%. 
 
NBP will continue to purchase government securities and government-guaranteed 
debt securities on the secondary market as part of the structural o pen market 
operations. The timing and scale of the conducted measures will d epend on the 
market conditions. Furthermore, NBP will also offer bill discount credit aimed at 
refinancing loans granted to enterprises by banks. 
The surge in COVID-19 pandemic and related restrictions had a negative impact on 
global economic activity in 2 020 Q4 and the beginning of 2021. The euro area slipped 
into recession again in 2020 Q4. Available data on the economic situation at the 
beginning of 2021 point to a continued weakness in the services sector, with further rise 
in industrial output in this economy. 
Inflation in the global economy is low, despite a slight rise recorded in some countries 
in January. The major central banks are keeping interest rates low and conduct ing asset 
purchases. Despite uncertainty about the development of the pandemic, financial market 
sentiment remains positive. This is accompani ed by a rise in global commodity prices, 
including oil. 
In Poland, preliminary data on national accounts for 2020 Q4 confirmed that GDP fell 
in this period. Activity declined as a result of a fall in consumption and lower investment 
than a year ago . In turn, t he fall in GDP was limited by the positive impact of net 
exports. 
Incoming data on the economic conditions in January indicate that the relatively good 
situation in the industrial sector c ontinues, although industrial output growth slowed 
down. In turn , construction and assembly output and retail sales recorded significant 
falls. This was accompanied by a fall in average employment in the enterprise sector and 
a decline in annual growth of average wages in this sector. Acco rding to the GUS flash 
estimate, inflation stood at 2.7% y/y in January 2021. 
 
 
Following the fall in GDP in 2020, a rise in ec onomic activi ty is expected in 2021 , 
although the scale and pace of the recovery ar e uncertain. T he further course of the 
pandemic and its impact on the economic situation in Poland and abroad continue to be 
the main source of uncertainty. The economic po licy measures, including the easing of 
NBP’s monetary policy introduced last year and the expected recovery in the global 
economy, will have a positive impact on the domestic economic situation. The pace of 
the economic recovery in Poland may be reduced by the lack of a visibl e and more 
durable zloty exchange rate adjustment to the global pandemic shoc k and to the 
monetary policy easing introduced by NBP. 
The Council became acquainted with the results of the March projection of inflation 
and GDP based on the NECMOD model. In line with the projection prepared under the 
assumption of unchanged NBP interest rates and taking into account data available until 
16 February 2021 there is a 50-percent probability that the annual price growth will be in 
the range of 2.7 –3.6% in 2021 (ag ainst 1.8–3.2% in the November 2020 projection), 2.0–
3.6% in 2022 (compared to 1.6–3.6%) and 2.2–4.2% in 2023. At the same time, the annual 
GDP growth – according to this projection – will be with a 50 -percent probability in the 
range of 2.6 –5.3% in 2021 (against 0.8–4.5% in the November 2020 projection), 4.0 –6.9% 
in 2022 (compared to 3.8–7.8%) and 4.0–6.8% in 2023. 
NBP will continue to purchase government securities and government -guaranteed 
debt securities on the secondary market as part of the structural open market operations. 
These operations are aimed at chan ging the long-term liquidity structure in the banking 
sector, ensuring the liquidity in the secondary markets for the purchased securities and 
enhancing the impact of the NBP interest rate cuts on the economy, i.e. strengthening the 
monetary policy transmi ssion mechanism. I n order to strengthen the impact of NBP’s 
monetary policy easing on the economy, NBP may also intervene in the foreign exchange 
market. The timing and scale of the measures taken by NBP will depend on the market 
conditions. Furthermore, NBP will also continue to offer bill dis count credit aimed at 
refinancing loans granted to enterprises by banks. 
NBP’s monetary policy mitigates the negative economic impact of the pandemic, 
supports economic activity and stabilises in flation at the le vel consistent with NBP ’s 
medium-term i nflation target. Due to its positive impact on the financial situation of 
debtors, it is also conducive to the strengthening of financial system stability. 
The Council adopted the Inflation Report – March 2021. 
The Counc il adopted the R esolution on National Strategy for S afety of Cash 
Circulation.