CBN MPC Communique No. 139 - November 2021
Central bank: cbn | Type: statement | Date: 2021-11-23

CENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA COMMUNIQUÉ NO. 139 OF THE MONETARY POLICY
COMMITTEE MEETING HELD ON MONDAY 22nd AND TUESDAY 23 rd NOVEMBER
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 22nd and 23rd November 2021,
in light of the continued recovery of the global economy and improving output
growth in the domestic economy . Though, the growth outlook for the global
economy for the rest of the year and into 2022 remains favourable, the uneven
pace of recovery across countries has persisted. This was driven primarily by
country and regional disparities in COVID-19 vaccination rate, size of policy
support and regional economic conditions . On the d omestic front, the
continued support by the monetary and fiscal authorities is sustaining the
growth recovery, notwithstanding the persistence of security challenges and
legacy infrastructural constraints. The Committee appraised the developments
in the global economy, international financial environment and the domestic
economy, as well as the outlook for the rest of the year and the first quarter of
2022.
Ten (10) members of the Committee attended this meeting.
Global Economic Developments
Global output growth has remained upbeat as economic agents defy the
continued threat posed by the sharp rise in infection rates associated with new
strains of the COVID-19 virus. Despite the forecast for a robust recovery of the
global economy in 2021, the uneven pace of vaccination across the globe and
the continued rise in infection rates by the more fatal and mutating strains of
the COVID-19 virus, suggest that the current two-speed recovery of the global
economy may persist longer than anticipated. This may, however, be remedied
if governments across the globe rally to improve coordination in the distribution
of vaccines to aid the early attainment of global herd immunity. The Committee
noted that the downside risks to the recovery may persist if the spread of these
new variants is not addressed urgently.
In light of the above dynamics and associated headwinds , the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its 2021 growth forecast for the global
economy from 6.0 per cent to 5.9 per cent. It also revised the projection for the
Advanced Economies downwards from 5.6 per cent to 5.2 per cent . The
downgrade was , however, offset by an upgrade of the growth forecast for
Emerging M arkets and Developing Economies (EMDEs) in 2021 . Thus, t he
forecast for the Emerging Markets and Developing Economies was revised
upwards to 6.4 per cent from 6.3 per cent.
Inflation across several Advanced Economies is expected to continue its
upward tr end into 2022, contrary to earlier expectations of transienc y, as
commodity prices continue to recover and feeding into energy and goods
prices. This is on the backdrop of rising demand, associated with the sustained
rebound in global output growth, amid lingering supply constraints. In response
to the persistence of price development, the US Federal Reserve Bank has
announced its intention to commence tapering its monthly bond-buying
programme by the end of November 2021. Other advanced economy central
banks have also indicated the likelihood of following suit in the short to medium
term. In key Emerging Market and Developing Economies, inflation remained
relatively high compared with the Advanced Economies. This is mostly due to
supply-side constraints associated with the Pandemic; exchange rate pressures;
and other legacy structural problems. The severity of inflationary pressures in this
group of economies, however, varies across countries in relation to the specific
structure and dynamics of the individual economies.
In the global financial markets, equit y prices largely maintained a strong post-
lockdown recovery, while investors continued to maintain a sizeable hedge in
gold, possibly to ease the impact of a rebound of the Pandemic as infection
rates continue to rise. The financial markets remained moderately bullish, an
indication that investors remain cautious in view of the unabating Pandemic.
This is reflected by the price of Gold, which has remained well above pre-
Pandemic levels.
Domestic Economic Developments
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) , real Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) grew by 4.03 per cent (year-on -year) in the third quarter of 2021,
compared with 5.01 and -3.62 per cent in Q 2 2021 and Q3 2020, respectively.
The growth trajectory has thus , been positive in the last four quarters following
the exit from the recession in 2020. Quarter-on-quarter, real GDP grew by 11.07
per cent in Q3 2021 compared with -0.79 per cent in the preceding quarter. This
improvement in real GDP was driven by growth in both the oil and non -oil
sectors by 12.05 and 10.99 per cent, respectively. The Committee also noted
the continued improvement in the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index
(PMI), which though, remained below the 50 -index point benchmark, rose to
47.3 index points in October 2021 from 46.6 index points in September 2021. This
improvement indicated a gradual recovery of output growth, driven largely by
the increase in new orders associated with rising aggregate demand and
upswing in business activities. The Non-Manufacturing PMI, however, declined
to 47.5 index points in October 2021 from 47.8 index points in September 2021
as uncertainties persisted around the poor security situation.
The Committee noted the continued moderation in headline inflation (year-on-
year) to 1 5.99 per cent in October 2021 from 16.63 per cent in the previous
month, the seventh consecutive month of decline. The decrease was attributed
to a marginal decline in both the food and core components to 18.34 and 13.34
per cent in October 2021 from 19.57 and 13.74 per cent, respectively in
September 2021. Inflation, however, remained above the Bank’s implicit
tolerance corridor of 6 – 9 per cent and above its benchmark policy rate of 11.5
per cent despite its progressive decline.
Observing developments in monetary aggregates, the Committee noted that
broad money supply (M3) grew by 7.10 per cent in October 2021, compared
with 4.72 per cent in September 2021. This was driven by growth in Net Domestic
Assets (NDA) by 9.12 per cent in October 2021, compared with 10.71 per cent
recorded in September 2021. Net Foreign Assets (NFA) , on the other hand,
contracted moderately by -1.50 per cent in October, compared with -20.85 per
cent in the preceding month . The continued growth in Net Domestic Assets
(NDA) was largely driven by increased claims on the Federal Government and
other public nonfinancial corporations, private sector and state and local
governments.
In the financial markets, money market rates oscillated within the standing
facilities corridor , reflecting the prevailing liquidity conditions in the banking
system. The monthly weighted average Open Buyback (OBB) rate increased to
12.18 per cent in October 2021 from 11.11 per cent in September 2021, while the
monthly weighted average Inter-bank Call rate decreased from 13.21 per cent
in September 2021, to 10.00 per cent in October 2021. The increase in the Open
Buyback (OBB) rate reflected the tight liquidity condition in the banking system.
The MPC noted the positive performance of the equities market in the review
period, with the All-Share Index (ASI) and Market Capitalization(MC) increasing
to 43,199.27 and ₦22.55 trillion on November 19, 2021, from 39,219.61 and ₦20.43
trillion on August 31, 2021. This depicts improved investor sentiment, following
impressive corporate earnings of listed companies on the Exchange. This has led
to a new bargain hunting drive by investors.
The MPC noted that the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) and Liquidity Ratio (LR)
both re mained above their prudential limits at 15. 2 and 41. 2 per cent,
respectively. The Non -Performing Loan ratio (NPL) at 5. 3 per cent in October
2021, reflected progressive improvement, compared with 5.7 per cent in
October 2020. The Committee, however, urged the Bank to sustain its tight
prudential regime to bring the Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratio below the 5.0
per cent prudential benchmark.
The gross external reserves stood at US$41.41 billion as at November 18, 2021,
compared with US$41.34 billion in October 2021, a moderate increase of 0.17
per cent.
Outlook
The overall outlook for both the global and domestic economies remain upbeat
but for the significant downside risks clouding the path to full recovery. The key
risks remain the unabating COVID -19 pandemic and uneven progress in
vaccination. As the US Federal Reserve Bank commences scaling down of its
monthly bond-buying programme , there is increased likelihood that other
advanced economy central banks will follow in the same direction. With this
impending development, external financial conditions will likely tighten for most
EMDEs, in view of huge capital flow reversals to the Advanced Economies as
yields rise. This will no doubt deepen the growth divergence between these two
groups of economies.
Forecasts for key macroeconomic variables for the Nigerian economy, indicate
continuing rebound in growth recovery for the rest of the year. This is expected
on the back of continued support by both monetary and fiscal policy, sustained
high crude oil prices and most importantly, availability of COVID-19 vaccines as
well as high turnout for vaccination in Nigeria . Accordingly, the Nigerian
economy is forecast to grow in 2021 by 3.10 per cent (CBN), 3.0 per cent (FGN)
and 2.6 per cent (IMF). Inflation is expected to continue its downward trajectory
as the harvest season sets in and the government works on improving t he
security situation to ease the bottlenecks constraining food supply.
The Committee’s Considerations
The Committee commended the continued recovery in output growth
following a positive outcome in the third quarter of 2021.
Based on the current outlook for price development and growth, Members
carefully reviewed the options confronting the Committee in the short to
medium term, taking into consideration, key downside risks to growth and
upside risks to inflation. Members reiterated the need to remain cautious and
urged both the monetary and fiscal authorities to sustain their support for the
recovery, as the Pandemic was yet to be over. The Committee, however, noted
that with the sustaine d intervention by the Bank , economic activities will
normalize in the short to medium term, leading to improved output growth and
lower inflationary pressure. The MPC also urged the fiscal authorities to sustain
the current effort to revamp the economy thr ough continued support to the
critical sectors of the economy.
The continued security challenge across the country remained a major source
of concern for Members , noting its impact on business confidence , foreign
investment inflows and overall economic activities. The persistence of insecurity
in major food producing areas, remained a key downside risk to the recovery.
The Committee called on security agencies in the country to increase their
presence in order to boost public confidence and facilitate the m ovement of
people, goods and services across the country . With improved security ,
especially in these food producing areas, Members expressed optimism that
food inflation will drop significantly following successful harvests and distribution.
The Committee also commended the gradual diversification of the economy
with the increased contribution of the non -oil sector to Government revenues
and called for more support to increase non -oil exports as a source of foreign
exchange earnings into the economy.
Members also reiterated the impact of poor infrastructure on rising domestic
price levels, urging the Federal Government to prioritize investment in public
utilities to improve the business environment. These include transportation
networks, power supply, education and health. Following the President’s recent
international call to investors to channel investments to Nigeria, Members were
of the view that funding for such projects could be sourced through equitable
partnerships with foreign investors and Nigerians in diaspora.
The Committee noted that the equities market remained in a strong position,
signposting continued investor confidence in the Nigerian economy. Members
thus urged the monetary and fiscal authorities to build on this sustained
confidence to attract more Foreign Direct Investment into Nigeria.
The MPC welcomed the continued resilience of the banking system in the face
of severe shocks to both the domestic and g lobal economies, commending
the Bank’s Management for maintaining overall stability in the banking system.
The Committee thus , called on the Bank to continue to push for increased
intermediation as the way forward to reduce unemployment, enhance
production, create wealth, and improve aggregate demand to strengthen the
recovery. On this note, Members applauded the success achieved by the
Bank’s various intervention schemes , which have contributed to both the
demand and supply sides of the economy.
The Committee reviewed the performance of the Bank’s various interventions
aimed at sustaining recovery of output growth and address ing the downside
risks to other external and domestic shocks to the economy. Interventions
continued largely in manufacturing/industr ies, agriculture,
energy/infrastructure, healthcare and Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises
(MSMEs). Under the Targeted Credit Facility , the Bank has disbursed a total of
₦363.49 billion to 766,719 beneficiaries, comprising 638,070 households and 128,
649 small businesses. Under its Agribusiness Small and Medium Enterprise
Investment Scheme (AgSMEIS), the Bank has released ₦134.63 billion to 37,571
entrepreneurs.
Between September and October 2021, under the Anchor Borrowers’
Programme (ABP), the Bank d isbursed ₦43.19 billion to support the cultivation
of over 250,000 hectares of maize, sorghum, soya beans and rice during the
2021 dry season; and ₦5.88 billion to finance six (6) large -scale agricultural
projects under the Commercial Agriculture Credit Sc heme (CACS).
Cumulatively the Bank has disbursed the total sum of ₦864 billion to 4.1 million
farmers, cultivating 5.02 million hectares. The bank also disbursed the sum of
₦41.2 billion for the commencement of the brown revolution, a large -scale
wheat program to wean us off imports by 35 per cent in the first year.
In addition, the Bank disbursed the sum of ₦261.92 billion for 42 additional
projects under the ₦1 trillion manufacturing intervention. Cumulatively, the
bank has disbursed the sum of N1.0 8 trillion under this Scheme. As part of its
effort to support the resilience of the healthcare sector, the Bank disbursed
₦5.39 billion to Nine (9) healthcare projects under the Healthcare Sector
Intervention Facility (HSIF). The Bank has also cumulatively disbursed the sum of
₦108.65 billion to hospitals and pharmaceutical industry. 54 of the 117 projects
funded are for hospital services. Committee was gratified that the funding
under Health sector has resulted in establish ment of two(2) new Cancer
Centers, over 59 MRI and more than 42 CT Scan Centers in Nigeria, within the
last 18 months
To further promote entrepreneurship development among Nigerian youth, the
Bank recently approved the implementation of the Tertiary Institutions
Entrepreneurship Scheme (TIES). The Scheme is designed to create a paradigm
shift among undergraduates and graduates of tertiary institutions in Nigeria,
from white-collar jobs towards entrepreneurship development. The guidelines
for the implementation of the Scheme was recently publ ished, as Bank of
Industry (BOI) is presently partnering with the Bank for the pilot implementation
phase.
Under the National Mass Metering Programme (NMMP), ₦8.69 billion was
disbursed to four (4) Distribution Companies (DisCos) under the scheme’s
Phase-0. The sum of ₦47.66 billion has been disbursed so far for the acquisition
of 858,026 meters. Also, in furtherance of its intervention in the energy sector,
the Bank released ₦27.03 billion to power sector players under the Nigeria Bulk
Electricity Trading Payment Assurance Facility (NBET -PAF). This is in addition to
the ₦37.69 billion disbursed to eight (8) Distribution Companies (DisCos)
recently, under the Nigeria Electricity Market Stabilisation Facility (NEMSF-2).
The Bank has disbursed the sum of ₦39.2bn under the Nigerian gas expansion
program to promote the migration to compressed natural gas (CNG) as the
preferred fuel for transportation and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) as the
preferred cooking fuel.
Furthermore, the Bank recently introduced the 100 for 100 Policy on Production
and Productivity (PPP), designed to create the flow of finance and investments
to enterprises with potential to kick -start a sustainable economic growth
trajectory, accelerate structural tran sformation, promote diversification, and
improve productivity in the country . It is geared to support private sector
companies with the aim of reducing certain imports, increasing non-oil exports
and improving the FX-generating capacity of the economy. The Bank will select
and finance 100 of such companies at 100 day intervals, in line with detailed
selection criteria as contained in the guidelines, and roll this over for another
100 companies for the next 100 days.
The Targeted Credit Facility (TCF) was particularly highlighted by the Committee
for its contribution to alleviating poverty at the grassroot. The Committee thus
urged the Bank to continue its support through the TCF to ensure that more
people benefit from this programme.
With the announcement to commence monetary policy normalization by the
US Fed and impending interest rate liftoff by central banks in some advanced
economies, the MPC called on the Federal Government to intensify its drive
towards a counter -cyclical fiscal policy in view of the imminent tightening of
external financial conditions. Committee members, therefore, noted with
concern that the gradual normalization of monetary policy by this group of
economies would dampen the recovery of several Emerging Market and
Developing Economies in the short to medium term due to the sharp reversal of
capital flows.
The Committee also evaluated the developments in China relating to the re -
occurring Pandemic, power outages and crisis in the property market, noting
the likely impact these could ha ve on Nigeria as a major trading partner.
Members thus called on the Bank to ensure that the necessary buffers are put
in place to shield the economy from the downside risks associated with these
developments.
In general, Members expressed confidence in the ongoing policies of both the
monetary and fiscal authorities which in their view was the hallmark of the
current recovery and restoration of macroeconomic stability in Nigeria. They,
therefore, called on both authorities to look beyond the current posit ion and
plan towards attracting sustainable investment flows to Nigeria.
The Committee’s Decision
At this meeting, MPC was gratified that its policy actions in the past had started
to yield positive results given the remarkable improvement in GDP which stood
at 4.03 per cent during Q3 of 2021 and the 6th consecutive month moderation
in inflation to 15.99 per cent in October 2021.
Given the level of its conviction about the efficacy of its actions on
macroeconomic variables, MPC felt that whereas tightening would further help
to rein in inflation aggressively, it nevertheless feels that tightening wil l increase
cost of funds and constrain output growth.
On the other hand, whereas loosening will lower policy rates, ease liquidity
pressures, and stimulate additional credit creation which will boost output
growth, MPC also thinks that loosening will furt her widen the negative real
interest rate gap and compound the price distortions in the money markets
which could fuel inflationary pressures.
As for whether to hold its existing stance, MPC believes that the existing
monetary policy stance has supported t he growth recovery and should be
allowed to continue for a little longer for consolidation to achieve the MPC
mandate of price stability that is conducive for sustainable growth. The
Committee also feels that a hold stance will enable it to carefully appraise the
implications of the unfolding global development around policy tapering and
normalization by advanced economies.
Based on the foregoing, the Committee decided to hold all policy parameters
constant to support the enabling environment for sustained recovery.
The Committee thus , decided by a unanimous vote to retain the Monetary
Policy Rate (MPR) at 11.5 per cent.
In summary, the MPC voted to:
I. Retain the MPR at 11.5 per cent;
II. Retain the asymmetric corridor of +100/-700 basis points around the MPR;
III. Retain the CRR at 27.5 per cent; and
IV. Retain the Liquidity Ratio at 30 per cent.
Thank you.
Godwin I. Emefiele
Governor, Central Bank of Nigeria
23rd November 2021