Monetary Policy Report, November 2021
Central bank: riksbank | Type: statement | Date: 2021-11-25

Monetary Policy Report, November 2021
Economic activity is strong and inflation has risen rapidly, largely driven by rising energy prices. The Riksbank forecasts a fall in inflation next year. The Executive Board has decided to hold the repo rate unchanged at zero per cent, and to purchase bonds during the first quarter of 2022 to compensate for forthcoming principal payments in the Riksbank's asset holdings. The Board's forecast is that the holdings will remain roughly unchanged in 2022, after which they will gradually decrease, and that the repo rate will be raised in the latter part of 2024. With this monetary policy, inflation is expected to be on target going forward.
Share by email - Open in new window
Share on - Open in new window
Share on - Open in new window
 - Open in new window
 - Open in new window
Applies from 1 December 2021
Repo rate, table
In brief – Monetary policy November 2021
Demand for both goods and services has varied considerably during the pandemic. The consumption of services fell sharply when large parts of societies closed down partially or entirely. Goods consumption did not fall as much, as consumption shifted from services to goods.
In step with most countries having eased the restrictions that have hampered economic developments, demand has risen rapidly.
The gradual opening-up of service sectors has led to high GDP growth abroad in the first half of this year.
The rapid movements have strained global supply chains. Production and trade in goods have been restricted by a shortage of inputs such as semiconductors and by freight companies´ difficulties meeting demand. Bottlenecks have also occurred in service production in many places.
The supply shocks are creating headwinds for growth but next year, these problems are expected to subside
when consumption patterns normalise, demand grows more slowly and production capacity is adjusted.
The difficulties in meeting the rapidly rising demand for goods has led to sharp rises in commodity and transport prices, which has also led to rising producer prices after a certain time lag. Some signs are emerging of more rapidly rising consumer prices for, for example, goods as a result of the supply problems but there are differences between countries.
In Sweden and the euro area, the effects on consumer prices has so far mainly been due to rapidly rising energy prices
. Energy prices are not expected to rise as quickly next year.
Inflation adjusted for energy prices is expected to continue to rise somewhat and be just over 2 per cent until the end of next summer.
When the supply problems subside, CPIF inflation excluding energy is also expected to fall back somewhat
. Monetary policy needs to give continued support to the economy for inflation to be close to the inflation target in the slightly longer term.
The Executive Board has therefore decided to hold
the repo rate at zero per cent
. The asset purchase programme initiated in March 2020 will expire on 31 December. The Executive Board has decided that the Riksbank
shall purchase bonds for SEK 37 billion
in the first quarter of 2022 to compensate for forthcoming principal payments
. The Executive Board’s forecast is that
holdings will be approximately unchanged in 2022 and then decrease gradually
. The forecast for
the repo rate path indicates that the repo rate will be raised in late 2024
Press release 25 November 2021: Monetary policy decision: Zero interest rate and unchanged asset holdings
(pdf | 717,6 kB)
Monetary Policy Report November 2021
(pdf | 6,8 MB)
Numerical data: Monetary Policy Report November 2021
(xlsx | 1,8 MB)
Decision by the Executive Board, Annex B to the minutes: The Riksbank’s asset purchases during the first quarter of 2022 (24 November 2021)
(pdf | 510,6 kB)
Article: Are low global real interest rates set to continue, Article in Monetary Policy Report November 2021
(pdf | 991,2 kB)
Article: Higher inflation – temporary or persistent, Article in Monetary Policy Report November 2021
(pdf | 1,3 MB)
Slides from the press conference 25 November 2021
(pdf | 1,8 MB)
Related content
Repo rate, deposit and lending rate
Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting held on 24 November
The Riksbank’s measures in connection with the corona pandemic
The Riksbank’s extended purchases of securities
Voting by the Executive Board on interest rate decisions
(xlsx | 148,2 kB)
Was this information helpful?
After your answear a textbox appears
Do you want to leave a comment?
Questions?
Visit our FAQ on kundo.se (opens i new window).
Thanks for your feedback!
Your comment could not be sent, please try again later
Updated 26/11/2021