CBN MPC Communique No. 89 - May 2013
Central bank: cbn | Type: statement | Date: 2013-05-21

Central Bank of Nigeria Communiqué No. 89 of the Monetary Policy
Committee Meeting of Monday and Tuesday, May 20 and 21, 2013
The Monetary Policy Committee met on May 20 and 21, 2013 with 10 out of the
11 members in attendance. The Committee reviewed the conditions and
challenges that confronted the domestic economy in the first five months of
2013, and reassessed the short -to-medium term monetary policy options in the
light of the fragile global economic and financial environment. The Committee
noted that one of the members, Professor Sam Olofin has left the Board of the
Central Bank and, therefore, ceases to be a member of the MPC. The
Committee recognized his tremendous contributions to its deliberations over the
years and thanked him for his services.
International Economic Developments
Global economic recovery continues to be fragile due to suppressed growth
and weakness in key financial markets , including the euro area and Japan.
However, the emerging market economies and Sub -Sahara African (SSA)
countries continued to show resilience.
Global growth outlook remains subdued but promising. It is forecast to average
3.2 per cent in 2013. In the advanced economies, output is estimated to grow
by 1.2 per cent in 2013 compared with 1.3 per cent in 2012. In the US, budget
deficit figures are better than projections due to automatic spending cuts and
improved revenues boosted by dividend payments to the Treasury from
mortgage banks bailed out during the crisis. Unemployment figures are also
improving. Although the European Central Bank has commenced a wave of
monetary easing, the euro area is expected to remain in recession with output
contracting by 0.3 per cent compared with a contraction of 0.6 per cent in
2012. The EU made steady progress in establishin g a Banking Union, pursuing a
three-pronged initiative of the Single Supervisory Mechanism ; Deposit
Guarantee System; and a Recovery and Resolution Scheme. The development
has been adjudged as an important step towards recovery. The regime of
quantitative easing commenced by the Bank of Japan holds prospects for
Japanese recovery arising from a weaker Yen and improved competitiveness of
Japanese exports. However, the downside risk lies in Japan’s demographics
whose key feature is a low propensity to consume , given its large population of
pensioners-about 30 per cent. With slowing growth momentum in the emerging
markets, global output is forecast to remain around the 2012 level.
The emerging and developing economies as a group are forecast to grow by
5.3 per cent in 2013, with S SA growing at 5.6 per cent . These economies have
continued to face the challenge of adjusting macroeconomic policy to
compensate for the weak external environment, particularly shocks induced by
developments in t he advanced economies. The IMF suggests that with the
prospects of improvements in the global economy, policy recalibration in a
number of emerging market economies should address risks from sustained
rapid credit expansion and high asset prices. Growth in these economies ha s
somewhat moderated compared with last year. T he strong GDP growth rate of
7.7 per cent recorded in the first quarter of 2013 for China was countered by
weaker rates in the other economies.
Domestic Economic and Financial Developments
Output
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) forecasts real GDP growth rate of 6.72 per
cent for Q2, 2013, an improvement over the Q1 estimate of 6.58 per cent. The
major driver of overall growth remains the non -oil sector led by services;
agriculture; and wholesale and re tail trade . The Committee noted that the
relatively robust output growth projection for 2013 was hinged on expected
favourable conditions for increased agricultural production and other policy
initiatives aimed at stimulating the economy. However, the Comm ittee noted
with caution, the high GDP growth projection in view of the extant risk factors
such as widespread insecurity, weak infrastructure and p robable flooding from
the projected heavy rains in some parts of the country. In addition, the state of
emergency in the North East and the accompanying military operations in that
axis ha ve the potential to adversely affect economic activities generally,
including agricultural production and food prices, as well as consumer demand.
The Committee also noted that although most sectors of the economy showed
improved growth performance in Q1 of 2013 when compared with Q1 2012, this
was not the case with respect to the key sectors like agriculture,
telecommunications and distributive trade. Concern was also expressed over
short-term prospects in the oil sector, mainly around possible reduction in oil
prices and continuing leakages in oil production due to bunkering and other
illegal activities.
Prices
Headline inflation increased from 8.6 per cent in March to 9.1 pe r cent in April,
remaining within the target range for the fourth consecutive month. Food
inflation was 10.0 per cent year -on-year in April compared with 9.5 per cent in
March, while core inflation declined further to 6.9 per cent from 7.2 per cent in
March. On a month -on-month basis, inflation showed broad -based moderation
across almost all components with the exception of imported food which may
be largely a reflection of the new tariff regime.
The inflation outlook remains relatively benign with project ions of headline
inflation remaining in the single digit range for the next six months. This result
reflects a combination of base effect and the success of tight monetary policy
leading to muted growth in the monetary aggregates and exchange rate
stability. The principal risk s to the outlook remain fiscal spending and possible
pressures on the exchange rate from any attrition to reserves caused by
declining revenues as a result of output leakages.
Monetary, Credit and Financial Market Developments
Broad money supply (M2) grew by 4.44 per cent in April 2013 over the level at
end-December 2012. When annualise d, M2 grew by 1 3.3 per cent, compared
with the contraction of 0.03 per cent in the corresponding period of 2012. The
growth in M2 was slightly below the growth benchmark of 15.2 per cent for 2013.
Aggregate domestic credit (net) grew by 1 7.46 per cent in April 2013 which
annualized to a growth rate of 52.38 per cent over the end -December 2012
level, compared with the contraction of 6.12 per cent recorded in the
corresponding period of 2012.
Interest rates in the interbank money market moved in tandem with the level of
liquidity in the banking system. The average inter-bank call and OBB rates which
opened at 10.21 and 10.23 per cent on March 19 closed at 10.86 and 10.91 per
cent, respectively, on May 16, 2013 . The average maximum lending rate rose
marginally to 2 4.53 per cent in April, 2013 from 24. 49 per cent in March, 2013.
Similarly, the average prime lending rate, rose to 16.6 5 per cent in April 2013,
from 16.61 per cent in March.
The Committee noted the continued recovery in the Nigerian capital market as
equities market indicators were positive in the review period. The All -Share Index
(ASI) increased by 31.4 per cent from 28,078.81 on December 31, 2 012 to
36,907.81 on May 17, 2013. Market Capitalization (MC) also increased by 31.5
per cent from N8.97 trillion to N1 1.80 trillion during the same period. Improved
earnings, increased capital inflow and portfolio investments as well as investor
confidence in the economy contributed to the up -swing in stock prices. The
Committee also noted the reported increase in the share of domestic players in
the capital market, thus reducing the risk of major shocks due to slowdown in
foreign participation.
External Sector Developments
At the Wholesale Dutch Auction System (wDAS), interbank and the BDC
segments of the foreign exchange market, the exchange rate opened at
N157.32/US$, N158.70/US$, and N1 60.00/US$ on 2 0th March 2013 and closed at
N157.30/US$, N158.33/US$, and N159.50/US$, respectively, on May 18, 2013. In all
three segments, the naira exchange rate appreciated in the review period. This
development reflected the effects of improved supply of foreign exchange to
the market . Both the average and monthly pr emia for the review period
remained insignificant, indicating the effectiveness of current policy measures.
The Committee also expressed satisfaction with the significant accretion to
external reserves which stood at US$49.13 billion as at May 16, 2013 . This
represents an increase of US$5.3 billion or 12.1 per cent above the level of
US$43.83 billion at end -December 2012. This level of reserves could finance
approximately 13 months of import.
The Committee’s Considerations
The Committee was pleased with the prevailing macroeconomic stability -
moderation in all measures of inflation on month -on-month basis; stable banking
system and exchange rate and robust external reserves . It commended the
agreement reach ed between the CBN and AMCON on the settlement of
outstanding AMCON obligations to all private sector investors by December
2014 and to repay the N3.6 trillion debts held by the CBN under a new
refinancing and restructuring arrangement within a period not exceeding ten
years at single-digit interest rate. The Committee noted that the repayments and
refinancing arrangements would have no adverse monetary policy implications;
but rather increase confidence in the financial system. Also, under this
arrangement, it is unlikely that banks will be required to contribute more than 0.5
per cent of their Balance Sheets annually to the sinking fund. By October 2014,
the CBN will be the sole creditor to AMCON, holding bonds guaranteed by the
Federal Government of Nigeria. The Federal Government will therefore have no
contingent liability to any party other than the CBN, and the Bank will recover its
debt from AMCON recoveries and contributions to the Sinking Fund by the
banks. Since the CBN supervises and regulates the banks and AMCON, this
exposure is considered a fair risk.
The Committee was concerned about the threat posed by developments in the
oil sector arising from uncertain oil market environment , high output leakages
arising from oil theft which has negatively affected the oil sector’s contribution
to GDP and the prospects for declining output if the state of affairs continues.
The Committee observed that the accretion to reserves resulted principally from
increased portfolio capital inflows. The Committee noted the potential effect of
this development on excha nge rates, reserves and the capital account in the
event of capital flow reversal , and thus stressed the need to maintain stability
and retain confidence of investors in the consistency of monetary policy.
The Committee also expressed concern over the lo w level of credit growth to
the private sector and traced this to the crowding out effect of high growth in
credit to the public sector. The Committee noted the N 1.02 trillion increase in
claims on government and the N1 .11 trillion drawdown on savings betw een
January and April 2013 and particularly the monetization of US$1 billion in April
2013, being proceeds of the Excess Crude Account . The combined effect of
new borrowings and reduced savings was an increase in net credit to the
central government of ove r N2 trillion in the first four months of 2013. The
evidence points to an increase in the rate of government expenditure in 2013
when compared with 2012. In addition, the recent military action in the North -
East will result in additional spending. Although the Government has announced
that there will be no supplementary budget, the Coordinating Minister for the
Economy and Honorable Minister of Finance has already announced that there
will be a drawdown on a Contingency Vote embedded in the 2 013 Budget to
cover emergencies. Overall, the Committee is of the view that government
spending will constitute a major risk to the inflation and exchange rate outlook ,
thus advising prudence in monetary policy action at this time.
The Committee further noted that in spite of increased borrowings, yields on
FGN bonds have been declining steadily, signaling the impact of increased
inflows while equity prices have been trending upwards. The evidence does not,
therefore, support claims of monetary policy being too tight. The Committee
was of the view that the principal risks to long-term stability can be addressed
through diligent implementation of sound policies of fiscal consolidation and
efficient sectoral policies underpinned by structural reforms. These are require d
to attract long term foreign capital inflow that would make the gains of
monetary policy sustainable , and also support credit extension to the private
sector players.
Consequently, the Committee weighed the following options:
(i) A reduction in rates in vi ew of declining core inflation, stable exchange rates
and relative reserve accretion . A gainst the backdrop of sustained pressure to
ease the stance of monetary policy, the C ommittee considered the imperative
of signaling its sensitivity to the concerns exp ressed about high lending rates in
the economy;
(ii) Retaining current monetary policy stance to sustain the macroeconomic
gains of tight monetary policy and to continue to rein -in inflationary
expectations.
The Committee’s Decisions
The Committee cons idered and acknowledged the merits of option 1 but
rejected it as being premature in view of the potential risk factors in the horizon
posed by recent developments which would necessitate increased fiscal
expenditure in the short-to-medium term, resulting in a resurgence of inflationary
pressures. The Committee considered and decided by a majority of 7 votes to
hold and 3 votes to reduce the MPR by 50 basis points . Thus, by a majority vote
of 7 members to 3 , the MPC voted to maintain the current policy stan ce i.e.
retain the MPR at 12 per cent with a corridor of +/ -200 basis points around the
MPR; retain the Cash Reserve Requirement at 12 per cent and Liquidity Ratio at
30 per cent; with the Net Open Position at 1.0 per cent.
In the final analysis, the Comm ittee was convinced that in view of the successes
achieved in all fronts -banking stability, low inflation, exchange rate stability,
strong reserve buffers and recovery in the equities market, there is no reason at
this point to change a policy that has worked so well.
Thank you.
Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, CON
Governor
21st May 2013