NBP MPC Press Release - 2019-07-03
Central bank: nbp | Type: decision | Date: 2019-07-03

1/2 
Warsaw, 3 July 2019 
 
Information from the meeting of the Monetary Policy 
Council held on 2-3 July 2019 
The Council decided to keep the NBP interest rates unchanged: 
▪ reference rate at 1.50%; 
▪ lombard rate at 2.50%; 
▪ deposit rate at 0.50%; 
▪ rediscount rate at 1.75%. 
 
Incoming data suggest that global economic growth continues at a relatively slow 
pace, amid heightened uncertainty about the global economic outlook in the coming 
quarters. In the euro area , despite still good situation in the services sector , the pace of 
economic activity growth remains relatively slow. In the United States, economic 
conditions stay strong, but recent indicators signal a possible weakening of activity in the 
coming quarters. In China, incoming data indicate a deterioration in econom ic 
conditions in 2019 Q2. 
In the recent period there has been an increased volatility of global oil prices ; which 
are still lower than a year ago . This has been accompanied by an increase in the global 
prices of some food products . At the same time, inflat ion in many countries remains 
moderate. 
The European Central Bank is keeping interest rates close to zero, including the 
deposit rate below zero, and reinvests maturing securities bought under the asset 
purchase programme. At the same time, the ECB has extended the period that it intends 
to keep interest rates unchanged. The US Federal Reserve is keeping interest rates 
unchanged. The Fed is gradually limiting the pace of its balance sheet reduction, 
signalling the possibility of loosening monetary policy in the coming quarters. 
In Poland, economic conditions remain good, despite weaker growth abroad . 
Activity growth is driven by rising consumption, fuelled by increasing employment and 
wages, very high consumer sentiment, and social benefit payments . Incoming data also 
indicate a continuation of significant growth in investment and exports. 
In recent months, consumer price growth has increased, which was driven by rising 
fuel and food prices as well as higher core inflation. Nonetheless, inflation continues to 
run at moderate levels. 
The Council became acquainted with the results of the July projection of inflation and 
GDP, prepared under the assumption of unchanged NBP interest rates. The July 
projection takes into account data and information published up to 18 June 2019. In line 
with the July projection based on the NECMOD model, there is a 50 -percent probability 
 
 
2/2 
that the annual price growth will be in the range of 1. 7-2.3% in 2019 (against 1.2-2.2% in 
the March 2019 projection), 1.9-3.7% in 2020 (compared to 1.7-3.6%) and 1.3-3.5% in 2021 
(compared to 1.3–3.5%). At the same time, the annual GDP growth – according to this 
projection – will be with a 50-percent probability in the range of 3.9-5.1% in 2019 (against 
3.3-4.7% in the March 2019 projection), 3.0-4.8% in 2020 (compared to 2. 7-4.6%) and 2.4-
4.3% in 2021 (compared to 2.4-4.3%). 
In the Council's assessment, the outlook for economic conditions in Poland remains 
favourable, and GDP growth will continue at a relatively high level in the coming years. 
At th e same time, inflation will remain moderate and, in the monetary policy 
transmission horizon, will stay close to the target. Such an assessment is supported by 
the results of the July NBP projection. 
The Council judges that the current level of interest ra tes is conducive to keeping the 
Polish economy on a sustainable growth path and maintaining macroeconomic stability. 
The Council adopted the Inflation Report – July 2019.