CBR Quarterly Inflation Review - Q2 2009
Central bank: cbr | Type: quarterly_review | Date: 2009-06-30

THE CENTRAL BANK
OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
(BANK OF RUSSIA)
Quarterly
Inflation
Review
2009 Q2
Research and Information Department
The electronic version of Quarterly Inflation Review is available on the Bank of Russia's website :
 .ru/publ/.
Contents
Introduction..................................................................................................................3
Inflation.Dynamics.........................................................................................................4
Consumer prices .......................................................................................................................4
Housing prices ..........................................................................................................................6
Producer prices .........................................................................................................................6
Foreign trade ............................................................................................................................7
Demand .................................................................................................................................11
Supply ....................................................................................................................................13
Labour market .........................................................................................................................14
Monetary.Conditions...................................................................................................16
Exchange rate .........................................................................................................................16
Interest rates ...........................................................................................................................18
Asset prices ............................................................................................................................21
Monetary aggregates ...............................................................................................................23
Credit aggregates ....................................................................................................................25
Statistical.Addendum..................................................................................................27
2009 Q2 3
Introduction
Since the end of 2008, the world financial
and economic crisis and its negative impact on
the Russian economy have been key factors of
inflation. Rapid consumer price growth in 2009
Q1 was a result of higher consumer goods import
prices due to devaluation of the national currency ,
general downward trends in supply , and weaker
financial position of Russian enterprises. Howev -
er , recession and slower growth in Russia’s major
trading partners, lower inflation in the countries
exporting goods to Russia, as well as weaker do -
mestic investment and consumer demand, and
slackening impact of the devaluation shock and
the rouble strengthening restricted price growth,
which was slower in the first half of 2009 than in
the same period of 2008.
The Bank of Russia’s main goal under these
circumstances was to maintain stability in the
banking sector and financial markets and to cre -
ate conditions favouring lower inflation.
Slower increase in consumer prices and stabi-
lisation of the domestic foreign exchange market
allowed the Bank of Russia to ease its monetary
policy in April. The regulator focused its efforts on
stimulating the economy by reducing the cost of
credit and providing sufficient liquidity. From April
to August, the Bank of Russia gradually cut inter-
est rates on its credit and deposit operations, and
on repo transactions. By the middle of August,
the Bank of Russia’s interest rate band has been
shifted downwards by 225 basis points.
Growing liquidity in the banking sector , par-
tially as a result of the Bank of Russia operations on
the domestic foreign exchange market, has had a
substantial downward impact on the short-term
interbank interest rates. The average quarterly
MIACR on overnight rouble loans equalled 7.5 %
p.a. in the second quarter as against 11.4 % p.a.
in 2009 Q1. There also was a slight downward
trend in high banks’ interest rates on short-term
loans to the economy in some segments of the
credit market. Interest rates on deposits and long-
term loans continued to rise.
High credit risks, growing overdue debt and
high interest rates impeded the achievement of
the desired credit growth in the economy despite
urgent measures taken by the Government of the
Russian Federation and the Bank of Russia. The
rate of growth in debt loans to non-financial insti-
tutions and households continued to decline.
After a significant slowdown in 2009 Q1,
growth in the money supply accelerated in April-
June, largely owing to the expansion of net credit
to the federal government as a result of growth
in federal government spending of money accu -
mulated in sovereign funds. At the same time, an-
nualised rate of growth in the M2 aggregate was
negative throughout the first quarter of the year .
Slower growth in loans to the non-financial
sector and in money supply during a long period,
as well as weaker devaluation impact on prices re-
flect weakening monetary pressure on inflation.
4 2009 Q2
Inflation Dynamics
Consumer prices
According to the Federal State Statistics Ser -
vice, consumer prices rose 7.4 % in the first half
of 2009, which was 1.3 percentage points below
their rise in the same period a year earlier . Year on
year , consumer prices increased 11.9 % in June
2009 and 13.1 % in the first half of the year .
The slowing of inflation in the first half-year
was largely the result of slower growth in food
prices, excluding vegetable and fruit prices, and in
most of service prices other than those regulated
by the government. Growth in non-food prices,
excluding petrol prices, accelerated compared to
the first half of 2008. As a result, core inflation
stood at 6.0 % in the first half of 2009 as against
6.7 % in the same period of last year . The rise in
the prices of goods and services included in the
core inflation calculation accounted for an esti -
mated 4.8 percentage points, or 65.0 %, of infla-
tion (as against 5.3 percentage points, or 60.5 %,
in 2008).
Food prices, excluding vegetable and
fruit prices, rose 5.2 % in the first half of the year
as against 8.7 % in January-June 2008. Growth
in the prices of this group of food products ac -
counted for an estimated 1.8 percentage points,
or 24.1 %, of inflation (as against an estimated
3.1 percentage points, or 35.3 %, in the same
period of 2008).
The most significant increase in the first half
of 2009 was registered in the price of granulat -
ed sugar (28.2 % as against 17.5 % in the same
Consumer price inflation (%)
Growth (June 2009
on December 2008)
Growth (June 2008
on December 2007)
Prices of goods and services, total: 7.4 8.7 Slowing of growth by 1.3 percentage points
of which:
– food prices 7.0 11.4 Slowing of growth by 4.4 percentage points
– food prices, excluding vegetable and fruit prices 5.2 8.7 Slowing of growth by 3.5 percentage points
– non-food prices 6.3 4.4 Acceleration of growth by 1.9 percentage points
– prices of paid services provided to households 9.6 10.8 Slowing of growth by 1.2 percentage points
Prices of goods and services included in core inflation calculation 6.0 6.7 Slowing of growth by 0.7 percentage points
Source: Rosstat.
Inflation Dynamics
2009 Q2 5
period of 2008), as sugar prices tended to grow
on the world market, and in prices of fish and
seafood (13.3 % as against 3.9 %). At the same
time, growth in the prices of most of the major
food products (grain products, cereals and le -
gumes, meat and poultry and butter) was slower
in January-June 2009 than in the same period of
the previous year . Prices of milk and dairy products
were down 0.6 %, sunflower oil and eggs prices
declined 14.4 % and 22.1 %, respectively (in
January-June 2008, milk and dairy product prices
rose 6.1 %, sunflower oil was up 25.9 % and eggs
were down 9.8 %).
Vegetable and fruit prices gained 24.0 %
in the first half of this year , a decrease of 12 per-
centage points from the same period of last year .
Growth in vegetable and fruit prices accounted for
an estimated 0.9 percentage points, or 11.6 %,
of inflation (as against 1.4 percentage points, or
15.7 %, in the first half of 2008).
On the whole, food prices increased 7.0 %
in January-June 2009 as against 11.4 % in the
same period last year .
Non-food prices were up 6.3 % in 2009 H1
as against 4.4 % in the first half of 2008. Growth
in non-food prices accounted for an estimated
2.4 percentage points, or 31.9 %, of inflation (as
against 1.6 percentage points, or 18.2 %, in Jan-
uary-June 2008). The most significant increase
was registered in the prices of medicines (18.3 %
as against 5.8 % in January-June 2008), tobacco
products (13.1 % as against 6.1 %) and deter -
gents and cleaning products (9.8 % as against
7.8 %). At the same time, motor petrol prices
fell 2.8 % (in June they went up 8.8 % after nine
months of continuous decline). In the first half of
2008 petrol prices increased 16.1 %.
The prices of paid services to households
rose 9.6 % in 2009 H1 as against 10.8 % in the
first half of last year . This increase accounted for
an estimated 2.4 percentage points, or 32.4 %,
of overall consumer price growth in the first half
of 2009 (as against 2.7 percentage points, or
30.8 %, in the same period of 2008).
Regulated service prices went up by an es -
timated 13.3 % in January-June 2009, or 1.3
percentage points faster than in the same period
last year . Rent and communal service charges
rose 17.7 % as against 14.6 % in the same period
of 2008, and passenger fares gained 6.3 % as
against 17.0 % a year earlier .
Growth in some service prices included in the
core inflation calculation – in particular , prices of
healthcare, sanatorium and spa treatment, pre-
school tuition, education, personal services, and
services of travel agencies and physical culture
and sport centres – slowed down in the first half
of 2009.
The rise in service prices in the first half of this
year exceeded by 2.9 percentage points overall
non-food price growth (2.8 percentage points in
the first half of 2008).
According to Rosstat, consumer prices grew
slower in all federal districts in the first half of
2009 as compared with the same period of
2008.
Food price inflation (%)
Growth (June 2009
on December 2008)
Growth (June 2008
on December 2007)
Food products 7.0 11.4 Slowing of growth by 4.4 percentage points
Bread and bakery products 1.9 20.7 Slowing of growth by 18.8 percentage points
Cereals and legumes 2.8 20.4 Slowing of growth by 17.6 percentage points
Pasta 4.1 26.0 Slowing of growth by 21.9 percentage points
Meat and poultry 4.5 7.8 Slowing of growth by 3.3 percentage points
Fish and seafood 13.3 3.9 Slowing of growth by 9.6 percentage points
Milk and dairy products -0.6 6.1
Butter 0.1 5.6 Slowing of growth by 5.5 percentage points
Sunflower oil -14.4 25.9
Granulated sugar 28.2 17.5 Acceleration of growth by 10.7 percentage points
Vegetables and fruit 24.0 36.0 Slowing of growth by 12.0 percentage points
Alcoholic beverages 6.7 6.0 Acceleration of growth by 0.7 percentage points
Source: Rosstat.
6 2009 Q2
In June 2009, there was a marked difference
across Russian regions and territories in estimated
cost of a fixed set of goods and services used by
the Federal State Statistics Service for interregional
comparisons of the purchasing power of the pop-
ulation. Specifically , the regional difference ratio1
registered 42.2 % in June 2009 as against 40.0 %
in December 2008.
Growth in food prices differed slightly – from
5.7 % to 8.2 % – by federal district in the first half
of 2009 as compared with 9.7 % to 13.6 % in the
same period last year . The rates of growth in non-
food prices ranged from 5.9 % to 7.0 % (4.4 % to
5.1 % in January-June 2008). Growth in service
prices accelerated in all federal districts, except the
Southern Federal District, in the first half of 2009
as compared with the same period of last year .
Housing prices
Prices on the primary and secondary housing
markets fell 4.5 % and 7.4 %, accordingly , in June
2009 as compared with December 2008. In the
same period last year housing prices rose 7.7 %
on the primary market and 11.9 % on the second
market.
Housing price dynamics in the first half of
2009 were affected by the downturn in housing
demand caused by the financial and economic
1 The regional difference ratio is calculated by the Bank of
Russia as the difference between the cost of a fixed set of
goods and services in the most and least expensive regions
relative to the national average cost of the set.
crisis. This was reflected, in particular , in slower
growth in housing construction which declined
0.3 % in January-June 2009, while in the same
period of 2008 it increased 2.7 %.
Producer prices
Industrial producer prices rose 10.0 % in
January-June 2009 as against 17.0 % in the same
period last year . The acceleration of producer price
growth in the first half of the year was largely due
to rapid price growth in the mining sector . In the
first six months of the year producer prices went
up 38.7 %, whereas in the same period of 2008
they grew 18.3 %. Producer prices in the fuel and
energy sector grew 49.6 % and 19.2 % respec -
tively.
Price growth in the production and distribu -
tion of electricity , gas and water stood at 17.8 %
in January-June 2009, a decrease of 0.2 percent-
age points on the same period last year .
Producer prices in the manufacturing sector
rose 2.8 % in the first half of the year as against
16.2 % in the same period last year . In January-
June 2009, the most significant producer price
increase in this sector was registered in the out -
put of petroleum products (26.8 % as against
19.1 % in the same period of 2008). At the same
time, there was a slowdown in consumer goods
producer price growth. For example, there was
a slowdown in producer price growth by 6.2
percentage points (to 4.6 %) in food, including
beverages, and tobacco production, by 1.1 per -
centage points (to 5.5 %) in textile and clothing
Inflation Dynamics
2009 Q2 7
manufacturing and by 0.8 percentage points (to
2.4 %) in the production of leather , leather goods
and footwear in the first half of 2009, as com -
pared with the same period of 2008.
Freight charges went up 2.5 % and railway
freight charges grew 4.7 % in January-June 2009
as against 19.9 % and 12.7 %, respectively , in the
first half of 2008.
Communication fees for corporate enti -
ties increased 2.1 % in the first half of 2009 as
against 10.2 % in the same period last year .
Producer prices for building materials fell
1.8 % in the first half of 2009, whereas in the first
half of 2008 they rose 9.2 %.
Agricultural producer prices declined 2.0 %
in January-June 2009, whereas in the same pe -
riod last year they grew 4.3 %. Crop grower prices
slipped 0.1 %, whereas in January-June 2008 they
increased 17.2 %. At the same time, grain prices
went up 0.4 % and sunflower prices fell 3.2 % (in
the first half of 2008 these prices rose 20.2 % and
16.7 %, respectively). Livestock breeder prices
declined 3.4 % (in January-June 2008 they went
down 4.7 %), whereas meat and poultry prices
gained 6.5 % (as against 3.9 % in the first half of
2008). Milk and eggs prices were down 13.6 %
and 25.8 %, respectively (as against 11.6 % and
14.3 % in January-June 2008).
Foreign trade
The price situation for major Russian export
commodities2 on the world markets improved in
2009 Q2 as compared with the first quarter of the
year but it still was considerably worse than in the
second quarter of 2008. Energy prices, despite
a rise of 9.5 % on average in the second quarter
of 2009 as compared with the first quarter , were
48 % lower than in the second quarter of 2008.
Non-energy prices declined on average 5 % quar-
2 Average prices have been calculated on the basis of data
provided daily by the following news agencies and exchang-
es: Reuters for oil, Petroleum Argus for petroleum products
(petrol, diesel fuel and fuel oil) and the London Metal Ex -
change for non-ferrous metals (aluminium, copper and nick-
el). Ferrous metal price indices and data on average monthly
prices of natural gas and other goods were provided by the
World Bank and the IMF .
8 2009 Q2
ter on quarter , mostly owing to the fall in ferrous
metal prices, and were down 29 % as compared
with the second quarter of 2008.
At the beginning of 2009, world oil prices
(after having declined over the second half of
2008) showed signs of recovery which continued
through the first half of the year . On June 11, the
price of Urals crude hit its high of $ 71.2 per bar-
rel.
The upward price trend was largely the result
of investors’ reassessment of the scope and impact
of the global financial and economic crisis, espe -
cially on the world energy market. The change in
the trend was also the result of a more favourable
forecast of economic growth in the second quar -
ter of the year for some energy-importing coun -
tries, especially in Asia (mainly China), as well as
increased energy consumption in China in May
and June. In addition, the OPEC countries tried to
abide by the 2008 decisions to cut oil production.
The oil market was influenced by the rise in stock
indices, the weakening of the US dollar in the sec-
ond quarter of the year and the reports about the
reduction of US crude oil stocks in May and June.
In the second quarter of 2009 the price of Urals
crude was $ 57.8 per barrel, or 34 % higher than
in 2009 Q1.
In the first half of the year , the world market
price of Russian oil was $ 50.5 per barrel, down
52 % from the same period last year (in the first
half of 2008 it was by 76 % higher than in the
same period a year earlier).
Petroleum product prices mostly grew in the
first half of the year . Moreover , in the second quar-
ter of the year their growth accelerated: compared
to the first quarter , the price of petrol rose 42 %,
fuel oil 35 % and diesel 15 %. However , in the first
half of 2009 petroleum product prices still were
on average half as low as in the first half of last
year: petrol prices went down 47 %, diesel fuel
prices fell 55 % and fuel oil prices declined 43 %
(in the first half of 2008 petroleum product prices
were higher by 45 %, 81 % and 75 %, respective-
ly , than in the same period a year earlier).
The upward trend in natural gas prices in
Europe, registered in 2008, has changed to the
opposite this year: natural gas prices were falling
through the first half of the year . In 2009 Q2 the
Inflation in countries trading with Russia1
Inflation in countries with a significant weight in Russian imports slowed to 2.1 % in the first half of 2009
(June to December of last year) from 4.2 % in the first half of 2008. Some countries (China and Japan) regis -
tered a fall in consumer prices. In most of the other countries price growth slowed down. The most significant
inflation slowdown was registered in Ukraine, Tur -
key , some European countries (Spain and the Czech
Republic) and the Republic of Korea. Slower inflation
in Germany also contributed to the reduction of ag-
gregate consumer price growth registered by Rus -
sia’s trading partners.
The slowdown in inflation was caused by sev -
eral factors, including weaker demand (partially
due to persisting tightness of financial markets) and
the decline in prices of major raw materials, energy
products and farm produce, as compared with the
first half of 2008. The second quarter saw slower
monthly price growth in Russia’s European trading
partners; in CIS countries price growth continued to
slow down and Japan and China registered a price
downturn. At the same time, the resumed increase in
oil prices on world markets had a certain impact on
inflation in foreign countries in the second quarter of
the year . In the United States, for example, growth in
fuel prices accelerated consumer price growth, es -
pecially in June.
1 According to data reported by national statistical agencies of Russia’s trading partners.
Inflation Dynamics
2009 Q2 9
fall accelerated, and natural gas prices in Europe
declined 31.5 % quarter on quarter (in the first
quarter they dropped 24.2 %). As a result, in the
first half of the year natural gas prices in Europe
were by 13.5 % lower that in the same period last
year (In the first half of 2008 they were by 41 %
higher than in the same period a year earlier).
Coal prices had shown a downward trend
since August 2008 but in April 2009 they started
to rise again. Nevertheless, in the second quarter
of 2009 they declined by 7.6 % quarter on quar-
ter , and were by 45 % lower in 2009 H1 than in
the same period last year (in the first half of 2008
coal prices were by 2.3 times higher than in the
same period a year earlier).
A key factor behind the decline in world fer -
rous metals prices since September 2008 has
been slower growth in demand amid the reces -
sion. Specifically , in the first five months of 2009
world steel production declined more than 20 %
and in Europe and North America the output of
steel plunged 40 %. In the second quarter of the
year the ferrous metal price fall accelerated, and
the prices were down 21.5 % quarter on quarter
(in the first quarter 2009 they fell by 11.5 %). As
a result, in the first half of the year ferrous metal
prices were by 4 % lower than in the same period
last year (they were by 43 % higher in the first half
of 2008).
Non-ferrous metal prices had been mainly
declining since April 2008. In the first half of 2009
they showed a general upward trend the key fac-
tors for which were: the reduction of major metal
stocks on the London Metal Exchange; China’s
policy of building up the national raw material
reserves; and growing demand from investors,
including investment funds, for non-ferrous met-
als amid rising stock market activity. In addition,
growth in the world price of copper was caused
by the 10-month reduction of output in Chile, a
leading world supplier of copper .
The most significant rise in non-ferrous metal
prices was registered in the second quarter of the
year . Compared to the first quarter , the prices of
aluminium rose 8.8 %, copper 35 % and nickel
22 %. Nevertheless, compared to the first half of
2008, the prices of aluminium and copper fell
50 % and nickel 57 % (in the first half of 2008
the price of aluminium was by 2.4 % higher and
copper 20 % higher , whereas the price of nickel
was by 39 % lower than in the same period a year
earlier).
Prices of other raw materials exported by
Russia were also affected by the global economic
situation and the general state of the world com -
modity markets.
The world prices of most foodstuffs and agri-
cultural raw materials3 began to decline in 2008.
In the first quarter of 2009 the decline in the pric-
es of some products slowed down significantly ,
whereas other prices steadied or started to rise.
In the second quarter of the year growth in the
prices of most products in this group resumed.
World sugar prices tended to rise in the first
half of 2009. The major factors that played a role
in the run-up in sugar prices were global reduc -
tion in sugar production, especially in India and
China, growing demand for ethanol and the con-
traction of world sugar stocks. The world sugar
market faces potential risks of inflation as the
global shortage of sugar is likely to increase in
the 2009 / 2010 agricultural year4 (July 1, 2009
to June 30, 2010), despite expected growth in
sugar production in China, Thailand and other
countries. Good sugar harvest forecasts and the
reported expansion of sugar cane plantations in
the major sugar-producing countries contributed
3 Average sugar prices have been calculated on the basis of
data provided daily by the London Commodity Exchange,
other prices are monthly averages published by the World
Bank and the IMF .
4 Forecast by the US Department of Agriculture and the Inter-
national Sugar Organisation (ISO).
10 2009 Q2
to the slowdown in price growth in June. In the
second quarter of 2009 prices of raw sugar and
refined sugar went up 16.4 % and 9.5 %, respec-
tively , quarter on quarter . In the first half of 2009,
prices of raw sugar rose 16.3 % and refined sugar
prices were up 19.3 % year on year (in the first
half of 2008 the respective percentages were
11.3 % and 4.6 %).
Rise in the prices of most of the grain crops in
the second quarter of 2009 was caused by unfa -
vourable weather conditions in some regions and,
as a result, more pessimistic harvest forecasts, pos-
sible decrease in grain stocks, fall in yields of some
crops, and growing oil prices. However , despite
the possible fall in production in the 2009 / 2010
agricultural year , the risks of inflation growth due
to grain price increases remain low, and analysts
do not expect a considerable increase in grain
prices by the end of the year because of significant
world grain stocks and a slight decline in grain
consumption.
In 2009 Q2, prices of American wheat and
maize rose 8.2 % and 5.4 %, respectively , and
prices of Canadian wheat and barley were up
1.1 % and 11.4 %, respectively , quarter on quar-
ter . In 2009 H1, prices of American wheat and
maize fell 36.4 % and 28.5 %, respectively , and
prices of Canadian wheat and barley were down
41.5 % and 46.2 %, respectively , year on year (in
the first half of 2008 prices of these grain crops
rose by 1.9 times, 1.5 times, 2.3 times and 1.4
times, respectively).
A continued decline in rice prices since May
2008 was caused by the same factors as those
that affected the markets for other grains. In Jan-
uary and February 2009 there was a rise in rice
prices on the world market, but in March-May
they again suffered a downward pressure from
new harvest deliveries, weak external demand,
expansion of sown areas, and expectations of rice
stocks reaching their seven-year high. However ,
encouraging economic news and expectations
of recovery from recession for South East Asian
economies – main consumers of rice – brought
about a rise in rice prices in June. As a result, rice
prices went down 5.9 % in 2009 Q2, quarter on
Inflation Dynamics
2009 Q2 11
quarter . In the first half of the year , they were by
14.7 % lower than in the same period last year (in
the first half of 2008 rice prices were by 2.1 times
higher than a year earlier).
The slowdown in demand growth in late
2008 caused by deteriorated economic situation
in major meat-consuming countries and falling
fodder , energy and fuel prices had a stabilising or
downward impact on poultry and livestock prod -
uct prices. However , market situation began to
change and there was an upward trend in prices
in January-June 2009. Specifically , beef prices
were growing through the first half of the year ,
excluding February. The principal factors of this
growth were the reported significant reduction
in the cattle population amid the world crisis and
the persistently high level of beef consumption in
Latin America, South East Asia, China and India. In
addition, the outbreak of new-strain flu amid the
shortage of information also provoked a partial
change in consumer preferences in favour of beef.
At the same time, thanks to timely information
about the new disease, most of the pork consum-
ers did not change their eating habits. As a result,
the world pork prices rose in the first half of the
year , although they grew somewhat slower than
beef prices. Poultry prices went up slightly due to
the expectations of growth in the world poultry
production as a reaction to the rise in the prices of
other kinds of meat.
As a result, in the second quarter of the year
beef, pork and poultry prices rose 7.2 %, 3 % and
0.3 %, respectively , quarter on quarter . In the first
half of the year prices of beef went down 17.4 %
and pork prices were down 7.9 %, year on year ,
whereas poultry prices were up 6.4 % (in the first
half of 2008 beef and poultry prices rose 18.0 %
and 6.3 %, respectively , while pork prices fell
6.4 % on the same period a year earlier).
The fall in the world prices of Russian export
commodities considerably deteriorated the terms
of Russia’s trade5 with other countries in the first
half of the year .
Compared to the first half of 2008, Russia’s
trade surplus6 contracted by 2.3 times to $ 43.2
billion due to a slump (by $ 111.3 billion, or 47 %)
in exports while imports declined by $ 53.4 bil -
lion, or 39.4 %.
Demand
Domestic demand
The fall in revenues in various sectors of the
economy and tight borrowing conditions led to
weaker investors’ activity , contraction of reserves
and acceleration of decline in consumer expendi-
tures. In the second quarter of the year the fall in
domestic demand accelerated. Domestic demand
for imports also seems to have shrunk in that pe -
riod.
In the first quarter of the year , as compared
with the same period of 2008, the share of im -
ported goods in retail trade commodity resources
contracted by 2 percentage points to 44 %. The
shares of food and non-food imports decreased
5 The ratio between export and import price indices.
6 According to a balance of payments estimate as of July 3,
2009.
Foreign trade
According to IMF , OECD and World Bank forecasts (April-July 2009), international trade in goods and
services is to contract 9.7-16 % in 2009. In the first half of the year the terms of trade for the oil exporting
countries were worse that in the same period last year . The International Energy Agency has estimated that world
oil consumption fell 3.6 % in the first half of 2009, as compared with the same period in 2008, and full-year
decline is expected at 2.8 %. The World Bank believes that the average Brent, Dubai and WTI crude prices will
drop to $ 55.5 per barrel, a decrease of 42.7 % from $ 97per barrel in 2008. In the first half of 2009 they fell
52.5 % year on year .
Eurostat data indicate that in January-May 2009 the European Union member countries spent less on the
import of oil and petroleum product, including imports from Russia, than in the same period last year . The de-
crease was due both to prices and reduced consumption. The International Energy Agency has estimated that
oil consumption in the European OECD member countries declined 4 % in the first half of 2009, year on year (a
full-year decline of 3.9 % is expected). Contract prices of natural gas exported by Russia to Germany in the first
half of the year were on average close to those registered in the first half of 2008, but in the second quarter of
the year they were lower than in 2008 Q4 and 2009 Q1.
12 2009 Q2
by 3 percentage points to 34 % and by 0.3 per -
centage points to 53.4 %, respectively.
Throughout the first half of 2009 the fall in
imports accelerated, which was a result of sig -
nificant reduction in import volumes. Imports of
investment goods declined more than consumer
goods imports. The decline in engineering imports
quickened in the second quarter of the year , and
in the first half of the year engineering imports fell
by 2.2 times. The pace of decline in imports of
chemicals and related products was a little higher
while in imports of food products and agricultural
raw materials it remained virtually unchanged in
2009 Q2, quarter on quarter . In the first half of
the year these imports declined by 1.4 times and
1.2 times, respectively.
Prices of some imported products, such as
foodstuffs and raw materials for their production,
were higher than in the first half of 2008, and
risks of their further rise still exist on the domestic
market.
Household real disposable money income
in the first half of the year remained unchanged
from the same period last year . As real wages fell
and employment decreased at high pace, people
preferred to save more and spend less. As a result,
the share of household expenditures on goods
and services in January-June 2009 contracted by
3.8 percentage points as compared with the same
period last year and stood at 70.1 %, whereas
the share of household expenditures on foreign
exchange purchases expanded by 1 percentage
point to 6.6 %. However , household spending on
purchase of foreign currency began to decline in
the second quarter due to relative stabilisation of
the rouble. The public propensity for organised
savings increased to 13.3 % from 8 % in the first
half of 2008.
Consumer demand started to fall early this
year . In the first quarter household spending on
final consumption declined 3.2 %, whereas in
January-March 2008 it increased 12.2 %. Retail
trade turnover contracted 3 % in January-June
2009 as compared with the same period last year
and the value of paid service to the public declined
3.4 %.
Government expenditures on final consump-
tion increased 1.3 % in January-March 2009 as
against 2.6 % in the same period last year . The
Federal Treasury reported data show that fed -
eral budget expenditures rose to 21.7 % of GDP
in the first half of 2009 as against 15.7 % in the
same period of 2008. Non-interest expenditures
reached 21.1 % of GDP (as against 15.3 % in
January-June 2008), the largest spending for the
past decade largely caused by the implementation
of anti-crisis measures to support the financial
system. At the same time, federal budget non-in-
GDP consumption
(growth as % of corresponding period of previous year)
2008 2009
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Full year Q1
GDP 8.7 7.5 6 1.2 5.6 -9.8
Final consumption 9.3 10.3 9.7 6.6 8.9 -1.9
Of which:
– households 12.2 13.4 12.2 8 11.3 -3.2
Gross capital formation 17.2 21.0 13.4 -2.1 11.1 -56.0
Net exports -9.5 -43.4 -59.4 -39.9 -36.0 17.2
Source: Rosstat.
Inflation Dynamics
2009 Q2 13
terest expenditures in the first six months of 2009
accounted for 39.9 % of the budget projection for
the year , or slightly less than in the same period
last year (40.4 %).
In the middle of the first quarter of this year
funds on the government’s deposit accounts with
the Bank of Russia began to decline owing to a
significant excess of budget expenditures over
revenues. Meanwhile, in January 2009 the de -
crease in funds was rather slight (by 6.4 %) due
to revaluation of foreign currency accounts of the
Reserve Fund and the National Wealth Fund (this
compares with a growth of 31.3 % in the same
period last year). The federal budget showed a
deficit of 4.0 % of GDP in the first half of the year ,
whereas in the same period last year there was
a surplus of 7.2 % of GDP . The reduction of the
federal budget surplus in late 2008 and a grow -
ing budget deficit in 2009 H1 as a result of mea -
sures implemented by the Government of Russia
to maintain financial and economic stability testify
to an easing of the fiscal policy. At the same time,
this accords with the necessity of implementing a
counter-cyclic budget policy.
Gross capital formation contracted 16.3 % in
the first quarter of the year , whereas in January-
March 2008 it increased 23.5 %. Fixed capital in-
vestment declined 18.2 % in January-June 2009,
whereas in the first half of 2008 it grew 19.9 %.
Investments in machinery , equipment and
transport vehicles accounted for more than a third
of total investment in the first quarter of the year .
A quarter of these went to import equipment.
Imports of machinery , equipment and transport
vehicles declined 53.7 % in January-June 2009,
whereas in the same period last year they in -
creased 58.4 %.
Fixed capital investments were largely fi -
nanced with raised funds (59.1 %), while bank
loans accounted for 13.4 % (as against 10.4 % in
January-March 2008).
As exports declined more slowly than im -
ports, net exports of goods and services rose
17.2 % in January-March 2009.
Foreign demand
The contraction of foreign demand and the
price downturn on world commodity markets af -
fected Russian export dynamics. In the first half of
the year Russia registered the most significant fall
in exports to European Union member countries,
which decreased by a half (Russian exports to
Germany declined by 2.4 times and Italy and the
Netherlands by a half). Russian exports to lead -
ing Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation member
countries, such as China, the United States and
Japan, shrank by more than a third. As for the
CIS member countries, the most significant de -
cline was registered in Russian exports to Ukraine,
which decreased almost by two-thirds.
The fall in prices was the principal cause of
the decline in exports. There was also a contrac -
tion in export volumes. Exports of Russian natural
gas declined by 1.8 times in the first half of 2009
year on year , and exports of timber and timber
products, chemicals, mineral fertiliser and ferrous
metals fell 20-25 %. In the meantime, oil exports
increased 0.2 % and there was a rise in petroleum
product exports.
Supply
The decline in output in the key economic
activity categories accelerated in the second quar-
ter of the year . Output in the major economic ac-
Economic growth in foreign countries1
GDP in the countries accounting for a large part of Russian exports contracted by an estimated 5 % in the
first half of 2009 as compared with the same period last year (in the first half of 2008 it grew 4.1 %). Estimates
and preliminary data show that GDP declined 3.6 % in the United States and 4.8 % in the eurozone; China’s GDP
grew 7.1 % as against 10.4 % in January-June 2008.
The World Bank and the OECD expect world production to decline 1.7-2.2 % in 2009, while GDP contrac-
tion is expected at 2.8-3 % in the United States and at 4.5-4.8 % in the eurozone; China may see its GDP growth
slow down to 6.5-7.7 % from 9 % in 2008. Countries continue to register unfavourable private sector consump-
tion and investment dynamics. Economic growth in many countries is adversely impacted by the contraction
of international trade volumes and cash flows and price downturn in the export-oriented sectors. Government
sector net demand dynamics (expenditures less taxes) remained counter-cyclic.
1According to data compiled by the national statistical agencies of Russia’s trading partners.
14 2009 Q2
tivity categories slumped 13.4 % in the first half
of 2009 year on year , whereas in the first half of
2008 it grew 8 %.
Construction volumes contracted 19.3 %,
transport registered a 17.5 % drop in output, re -
tail trade declined 3 % and wholesale trade was
down 6.3 % in January-June 2009 as against the
first half of last year .
Industrial output fell 14.8 %, whereas in the
first half of last year it grew 5.8 %. Output in the
manufacturing sector was down 21.3 % and in
the mining sector 3.4 % (the first half of 2008
saw output grow 8.4 % and 0.5 %, respectively).
The supply of farm produce increased 0.9 %
as against 6.4 % in the first half of 2008. There
was a rise in the output of major livestock prod -
ucts in the first half of the year , including cattle and
poultry in slaughter weight, which grew 5.9 %. As
a result, in the first half of the year the output of
meat and meat products rose 1.5 % as compared
with the same period last year , of which the out-
put of meat, including premium quality meat by-
products, increased 9.8 %.
As of the beginning of July , grain stocks at
agricultural, procurement and processing enter -
prises exceeded by 97.6 % last year’s levels. This
growth is expected to have a favourable effect on
the dynamics of prices of bread and bakery prod-
ucts, cereals, legumes and pasta, thus not putting
upward pressure on consumer price inflation.
There was a decrease in spare production
capacity in the second quarter . According to es-
timates of the Institute of Economy in Transition,
the rate of production capacity utilisation in indus-
try rose by 5 percentage points quarter on quarter
and reached 58 %. The highest rate of production
capacity utilisation was registered in the produc -
tion of coke, petroleum products and pulp and
paper , the lowest rate was observed in the pro -
duction of rubber and plastic goods and transport
vehicles.
The contraction in foreign and domestic de -
mand contributed to the reduction of business ac-
tivity. Production of goods and services fell below
its natural (potential) level. GDP shrank by an es-
timated 10.4 % in the first half of 2009. The gap
between actual and potential output was estimat-
ed as negative.
Labour market
The number of jobs fell 2.6 % in January-
June 2009 (it rose 0.9 % in the same period last
year). Labour productivity declined by an estimat-
ed 8.0 % in that period (it rose 7 % a year earlier).
Estimates show that the decline in labour produc-
tivity in the services sector in January-March 2009
was slower than in the manufacturing sector . The
pace of decline in the production of goods was
greater than in the production of services. The de-
crease in the number of employed was smaller in
the service sector than in the manufacturing sec -
tor as compared with January-March 2008.
Real wage was down 2.8 % in the first half
of this year , whereas in the first half of last year it
Inflation Dynamics
2009 Q2 15
rose 12.9 %. Real wage declined more slowly than
labour productivity.
In the GDP structure by income, the share of
wage expanded from 48.3 % in the first quarter
of 2008 to 56.2 % in 2009 Q1.
Wages continued to differ significantly in
various types of economic activity in the first half
of the year . The highest average monthly wage in
January-May 2009 was registered in the financial
sector (40,284 roubles) and in fuel and energy
production (38,837 roubles), exceeding the na -
tional average by 2.3 times and 2.2 times, respec-
tively. The lowest average monthly wage was in
agriculture, hunting and forestry (8,542 roubles),
textile and clothing production (8,381 roubles)
and in the production of leather , leather goods
and shoes (9,276 roubles), representing respec -
tively 48.3 %, 47.4 % and 52.5 % of the national
average. Wages below the national average were
registered in the sectors that receive considerable
government funding (education, healthcare and
social services, communal, personal and other
public services) as well as in the manufacturing
sector , construction, wholesale and retail trade,
car and other repair services.
Growth in the number of unemployed (as
calculated by the ILO methodology), which had
started in the second half of 2008, has acceler -
ated. In January-June 2009 the number of unem-
ployed rose 42.8 % as compared with the same
period last year . The number of officially regis -
tered unemployed also increased significantly (by
41.2 %). The total number of unemployed stood
at 8.3 % of the economically active population as
of late June 2009 (5.6 % as of late June 2008).
16 2009 Q2
Monetary Conditions
Exchange rate
In the second quarter the rouble exchange
rate dynamics on the foreign exchange market
was influenced by relatively stable external eco -
nomic conditions. The current account surplus
was estimated at $ 17.2 billion in the first half of
2009 as against $ 9.1 billion in the first quarter .
According to preliminary data, an estimated $ 7.2
billion net private sector capital inflow was regis -
tered in the second quarter of the year – for the
first time since the second quarter of 2008 (there
was a net capital outflow of $ 34.8 billion in the
first quarter of 2009).
National currency demand was higher than
usual on the domestic foreign exchange market
in the second quarter of the year . The Bank of
Russia was a net purchaser of foreign exchange,
smoothing the rouble exchange rate fluctuations
within the technical band. As a result, the value
of Russia’s international reserve assets reached
$ 412.6 billion as of July 1, 2009, an increase of
7.5 % in April-June.
The nominal rouble / US dollar rate gained
5.3 % in the second quarter of the year , whereas
in the first it slipped 19.6 %, as the technical band
was readjusted amid a substantial capital outflow.
Amid improving economic conditions and ris -
ing energy prices, the rouble was rallying against
the US dollar throughout the second quarter of
the year . In July , however , it lost 1.6 % of its value
against the dollar , largely due to significant fluc-
tuations in the world price of oil. On August 1,
2009, the rouble / dollar rate stood at 31.1533
roubles to the dollar .
The nominal rouble / euro rate gained
1.4 % in the second quarter of the year , whereas
in the first quarter it was down by 19.1 %. In July ,
the rouble weakened against the euro by 1.9 %
and stood at 43.9978 roubles to the euro as of
August 1, 2009.
The rouble value of the bi-currency bas -
ket had a tendency to decline in the second quar-
ter of the year and stood at 36.8042 roubles as of
July 1, 2009. At the same time, after significant
exchange rate fluctuations in July , the rouble value
of the operating benchmark rose to 36.9333 rou-
bles as of August 1, 2009.
The nominal effective rate of the rouble
against foreign currencies gained 2.9 % in April-
June after the 15.2 % decline in the first quarter of
the year . This exceeds the rouble’s nominal rally
against the euro in the second quarter . T aking
into consideration that the aggregate share of the
countries using the euro as the only legal tender
in Russia’s foreign trade turnover is over 40 %, the
dynamics of the rouble’s nominal effective rate in
Monetary Conditions
2009 Q2 17
the second quarter was largely the result of a pro-
nounced rise of the rouble against the currencies
of Russia’s non-euro trading partners.
The real rouble / US dollar rate gained
7.1 % in the second quarter , whereas in the first
quarter it fell 15.4 %. A key factor in its dynam -
ics was, as before, the rouble / dollar nominal rate,
which increased faster than domestic or foreign
inflation. Preliminary data show that in July the
rouble weakened by 1.8 % against the dollar in
real terms.
The real rouble / euro rate rose 3.6 % in
April-June, whereas in the first quarter of 2009 it
fell 15.0 %. Such dynamics of the real rouble / euro
rate could have been due both to rising nominal
rouble / euro rate in the reported quarter and to the
inflation differential between Russia and the euro-
zone. While in the first quarter of the year nomi -
International currency market
The US dollar had upward and downward trends against the currencies of Russia’s major trading partners
in the first half of the year . The dollar lost some of its value against the euro (almost 4 %, June on December
2008), the pound sterling, the Swiss franc and some
others, but rose against several other currencies, in
particular, against the Japanese yen (by nearly 6 %).
The dollar remained virtually unchanged against the
yuan.
In early 2009, the National Bank of the Re -
public of Belarus devalued the Belorussian rouble by
20.5 %. It pegged the national currency to a basket
comprised of the US dollar, the euro and the Russian
rouble in equal proportions. Initially , the idea was
to set a limit of + / –5 % on basket fluctuations in
2009, but in June the fluctuation band was widened
to + / –10 % to allow a more flexible exchange rate
policy. Kazakhstan devalued its currency , the tenge,
by 20% in February 2009. The situation on Ukraine’s
foreign exchange market remained unstable in early
2009 after a significant devaluation of the hryvnia in
the fourth quarter of 2008, but since March there
has been a progressive stabilisation and strengthen-
ing in the Ukrainian currency.
18 2009 Q2
nal rate fluctuations were a key factor in the real
rouble / euro rate dynamics, in the second quarter
it was rather a result of domestic inflation, as the
rouble’s rise against the euro was more moder -
ate in nominal terms. In July the rouble weakened
against the euro by 1.4 % in real terms.
The real effective rate of the rouble
against foreign currencies went up 4.8 % in the
second quarter , according to preliminary data, af-
ter the 11.8 % fall in January-March. The general
trend of the rouble’s strengthening against the
currencies of Russia’s major trading partners in
real terms continued throughout the quarter un -
der review, but in July the real effective rate of the
rouble fell by an estimated 1.5 %.
From April to July the rouble mostly rose
against foreign currencies, and its dynamics is not
likely to stimulate consumer price inflation till the
end of the year .
Interest rates
Money market and Bank of Russia inter -
est rates
In April-August 2009, the Bank of Rus -
sia changed interest rate on its key operations
proceeding from the analysis of prevailing mac -
roeconomic trends, inflation trends and rouble
exchange rate expectations, and monetary and
credit indicators’ dynamics.
Stabilisation on the domestic foreign ex -
change market in April-July 2009 contributed
to the decrease in devaluation expectations and
strengthening of the rouble against the bi-cur -
rency basket. There has been a downward trend
in inflation and inflation expectations since April
2009. At the same time, the cost of credit re -
mained high despite the measures taken by the
Bank of Russia with a view to providing rouble li -
quidity to credit institutions. A significant contrac-
tion both in credit supply by the banking sector
and in credit demand from economic agents led
to a substantial reduction in the overall debt on
loans. In those circumstances, the Board of Direc-
tors of the Bank of Russia decided to cut interest
rates on its operations. Interest rates on the Bank
of Russia’s operations were reduced by 2 percent-
age points in total, in April-July 2009 (see Statisti-
cal addendum, T able 9).
In August, the Bank of Russia continued to
cut interest rates on its operations (see Statisti -
cal addendum, T able 9). However , those adjust-
ments were more cautious, taking into account
the previous changes in interest rates on the Bank
of Russia’s operations and the fact that the cur -
rent inflation has nearly approached its last year
level. On August 10, the Bank of Russia cut the
refinancing rate and interest rates on its instru -
ments by 0.25 percentage points. The overnight
loan rate was lowered to 10.75 % p.a., the tom-
Foreign central bank policy
Central banks in most of Russia’s trading part -
ners lowered their interest rates on monetary policy
instruments in the first half of 2009. The European
Central Bank cut the refinancing rate from 2.5 % p.a.
to 1.5 % p.a. in the first quarter and to 1 % p.a. in the
second quarter . The US Federal Reserve, which kept
the benchmark federal funds rate within the range
of 0-0.25 % p.a., started operations with the bank -
ing sector to increase liquidity through the purchase
of securities from banks in specified amounts. CIS
countries also began to cut interest rates: the Na -
tional Bank of Ukraine lowered the official refinanc-
ing rate from 12 % to 11 % p.a. in June, while the
National Bank of Kazakhstan reduced the refinanc -
ing rate from 10.5 % to 8.5 % p.a. in January-June.
In China, benchmark interest rates on yuan-denom-
inated deposits and loans has not changed since the
beginning of the year .
Monetary Conditions
2009 Q2 19
next deposit rate went down to 5.50 % p.a., and
the minimum overnight repo auction rate was cut
to 7.75 % p.a.
Liquidity supply in the banking sector has
grown in general due to the Bank of Russia opera-
tions on the domestic foreign exchange market
and larger net credit to the federal government in
April-July 2009. At the same time, credit institu -
tions’ average daily debt to the Bank of Russia on
instruments used to provide liquidity decreased
from 2.8 trillion roubles to 1.8 trillion roubles
quarter on quarter . The share of unsecured loans
in the structure of this debt contracted from about
65 % in the first quarter to 50 % in April-July ,
that of loans secured by «non-market» assets or
guarantees expanded from 17 % to 39 % while
the share of repo operations declined from 15 %
to 9 %. At the same time, the Bank of Russia av -
erage daily debt to credit institutions on liquidity
absorption instruments increased to 400 billion
roubles in April-July 2009 from about 150 billion
roubles in the first quarter .
The monetary policy measures taken by the
Bank of Russia led to the reduction of short-term
interest rates in some segments of the credit mar-
ket, but long-term credit and deposit rates con -
tinued to rise.
20 2009 Q2
Average interest rates on rouble-denominat-
ed interbank loans declined significantly in the
second quarter . The average quarterly MIACR on
overnight rouble loans equalled to 7.5 % p.a. in
2009 Q2 as against 11.4 % in the first quarter .
During the second quarter , the daily MIACR on
overnight interbank rouble loans varied between
6.3 % p.a. and 11.0 % p.a. (as against 5.6 % –
28.0 % p.a. in the first quarter). In July , MIACR
on overnight interbank rouble loans fluctuated
between 6.0 % p.a. and 7.4 % p.a., with the av -
erage monthly MIACR standing at 6.5 % p.a., or
0.3 percentage points lower than in June. Interest
rates on 2- to 7-day interbank rouble loans ex -
tended by Russian banks declined from 11.9 %
p.a. in the first quarter to 7.6 % p.a. in the sec -
ond quarter; interest rates on 8- to 30-day loans
dropped from 16.7 % to 10.3 % p.a.; interest rates
on 1- to 3-month loans went down from 21.1 %
to 12.1 % p.a.
Household deposit rates continued to rise
in the second quarter due to increased competi -
tion on the deposit market amid the persisting
strong money demand in the banking sector . In
the second quarter of the year , the average short-
term rouble deposit rate increased by 0.8 per -
centage points to 10.8 % p.a., quarter on quarter .
The average interest rate on long-term household
rouble deposits rose by 0.6 percentage points to
11.5 % p.a.
Long-term funds availability for credit institu-
tions remained limited on the domestic and for -
eign markets in 2009 Q2. Besides, business activ-
ity and output decline in main economic sectors
had a negative impact on the financial position of
companies and as a result, the risk of default on
previous loans increased. These developments led
to a credit crunch and, on average, higher interest
rates on long-term rouble loans to non-finan -
cial institutions . The average quarterly interest
rate on long-term loans rose by 1.2 percentage
points to 16.2 % p.a. in 2009 Q2. Relative stabili-
Monetary Conditions
2009 Q2 21
months section which retained its rising slope,
while the yield curve for longer-term loans shifted
down and retained its declining slope. The inclina-
tion of the yield curve became steeper , which sug-
gests increasing credit risk and unabated inflation
expectations of market participants.
Interest rates on rouble loans to households
continued to rise in the second quarter . The aver-
age quarterly rate on long-term loans increased
0.5 percentage points quarter on quarter and
reached 20.3 % p.a. The average short-term
credit rate went up by 1.1 percentage points to
29.5 % p.a.
Asset prices
There were several periods with different
share price dynamics on the Russian stock mar -
ket in the second quarter of the year . In April and
May , the MICEX and RTS stock indices rose rapidly
reaching their six-month high by June. However ,
this growth in Russian share prices was largely a
result of the inflow of short-term speculative capi-
tal, including foreign capital, to the stock market.
Early in June, bad foreign news compelled share -
holders to fix their profits and sell shares, caus -
ing a fall in prices. In the middle of the month the
Russian stock price downturn accelerated, as the
situation on the world oil and stock markets de -
teriorated, but in the last week of the month the
price fall ceased.
On June, 30 the MICEX Index gained 25.7 %
as compared with the end of the first quarter and
sation on the money market led to a decline in in-
terest rates on short-term loans to the real sector .
There was also a fall in average quarterly interest
rates on loans with terms up to 6 months, where-
as rates on long-term loans went up. The average
rate on short-term loans to non-financial institu -
tions was 15.8 % p.a. in 2009 Q2, down by 0.8
percentage points, quarter on quarter . The most
significant rise in interest rates was registered on
loans for terms over 3 years (by 1.3 percentage
points), while interest rates on loans for terms up
to 1 month showed the most significant fall (by
2.2 percentage points). In the second quarter ,
there was a downward shift in the yield curve for
loans to non-financial institutions in the up to 6
22 2009 Q2
reached 971.55 points while the RTS Index rose
43.1 % to 987.02 points. The average MICEX and
RTS stock indices in the second quarter were, re -
spectively , by 45.3 % and 57.9 % higher than in
the first quarter .
In the second quarter of the year , as com -
pared with the end of the first quarter , the RTS
stock index rose faster than stock indices in the
most emerging economies. The stock indices
in China, Brazil and India (together with Russia
known as BRIC) increased 24.7 %, 25.8 % and
49.3 %, respectively.
In the second quarter , there was a significant
rise in corporate stock prices in all economic sec -
tors. The most significant increase was registered
in share prices of consumer goods and retail trade
companies, and in the manufacturing, energy ,
finance and metallurgy sectors. Corporate stock
prices in telecommunications and oil and gas sec-
tors demonstrated more moderate growth.
In July , Russian stock prices showed uneven
dynamics. In the first 10 days of the month the
MICEX and RTS stock indices declined, but by the
end of the month they had partly made up for the
fall registered in June and early July. At of the end
of July the MICEX index gained 8.4 % month on
month and reached 1,053.30 points and the RTS
index was up 3.1 % to 1,017.47 points. RTS sec-
tor indices also increased significantly.
Monetary Conditions
2009 Q2 23
Yields declined on the OFZ bond market in
the second quarter 2009. At the end of the quar-
ter , the OFZ effective market portfolio indicator
(MPI) went up by 0.2 percentage points, quarter
on quarter , and reached 10.3 % p.a. The average
quarterly effective MPI was down 0.2 percentage
points to 10.3 % p.a. In July , OFZ yields tended
to rise. Government bond yields changed within
the range of 10.2 % to 10.7 % p.a. At the end
of July , the OFZ effective market portfolio indi -
cator gained 0.2 percentage points and reached
10.6 % p.a. The average effective MPI rose by 0.6
percentage points in July , month on month, and
reached 10.5 % p.a.
In April-July long-term government bond
yield dynamics followed the changes in the short-
and medium-term OFZ yields. In July , the inclina-
tion of the OFZ yield curve increased as compared
with April-June, while a wide spread remained
between yields on individual government bond
issues, which might have reflected uncertainty in
market participants’ expectations of future OFZ
price dynamics.
Yields on rouble corporate and regional
bonds tended to decline in April-July 2009. The
average yield on corporate and regional bonds in
that period was 15.49 % and 15.98 % p.a., re -
spectively , as against 21.43 % and 21.46 % p.a.
in the first quarter of the year . By the end of July ,
the yield on corporate and regional bonds had
reached late 2008 levels and stood, respectively ,
at 14.44 % and 14.59 % p.a. Since last February ,
regional bond yields have been higher than those
of corporate bonds. The spread between the yields
on corporate bond and OFZ narrowed consider -
ably in April-July 2009, as compared with the first
quarter of the year .
Monetary aggregates
As the rouble stabilised in the second quar -
ter of the year , the impact on money demand of
the rouble devaluation – which had caused funds
flow from rouble to foreign currency assets in late
24 2009 Q2
smaller monthly pace, however , than a year ear-
lier during the first half of the year , excluding May.
Total value of rouble time deposits grew 7.7 % in
the second quarter of 2009 as against 9.5 % in
the same period last year . As a result, their annual
rate of growth was negative (–3.4 %) as of July 1,
2009, whereas a year earlier it stood at 46 %.
As the exchange rate dynamics changed, net
sales of foreign currency to households fell consid-
erably in February-June 2009. There were similar
trends in foreign currency deposits changes: after
a significant increase in January , the monthly rate
of growth in foreign currency deposits has been
2008 and January 2009 – gradually decreased.
At the same time, the money demand continued
to grow slowly , mainly due to a slowdown both in
economic activity and in asset price growth, espe-
cially in the real estate market.1
The monetary aggregate M1 (cash and de -
mand deposits) increased 9.4 % in the second
quarter of 2009 as against 4.2 % in the same
period last year . The annual rate of M1 growth
was a little higher in April-June 2009 than in the
same period of 2008. At the same time, amid a
considerable slowdown in economic growth, the
annual rate of growth in M1, a monetary aggre -
gate which reflects the transactional needs of the
economy in money , was negative in the first half
of the year . The monetary aggregate M1 contract-
ed by 10.8 % as of July 1, 2009, year on year .
Rouble-denominated time deposits of non-
financial enterprises and households increased by
a meagre 1.6 % in January-June 2009 as against
15.3 % in the same period last year . That might
have been mainly a result of the rouble weak -
ening in late 2008 and early 2009, which pro -
voked rouble funds movement into foreign cur -
rency assets. As the rouble stabilised and began to
strengthen and the deposit interest rates went up,
rouble time deposits also began to increase – at a
1 For example, annual rates of price growth in the primary
housing market continuously declined, and in the second
quarter they have turned negative (–2.3 %) for the first time
since the observations’ beginning in 1999.
Monetary Conditions
2009 Q2 25
steadily declining, except in June. Nevertheless,
the level of deposits dollarisation in the first half of
the year was considerably higher than in the same
period of 2008. For example, the share of foreign
currency deposits (in rouble terms) in total value
of deposits in the banking sector was 28.8 % as
of July 1, 2009 (as against 13.8 % a year earlier),
while their share in broad money supply equalled
22.8 % (as against 10.6 % as of July 1, 2008).
As a result, the broad money supply (including
foreign currency deposits) expanded by meagre
1.7 % in January-June 2009 (as against 8.8 %
in the same period of 2008). The annual rate of
growth in board money stood at 7.1 % as of July
1, 2009 (as against 32.4 % a year earlier).
Credit aggregates
Credit aggregates contracted in absolute
terms, and their annual growth rates continued
to decrease in the second quarter of the year . The
respective annual rates of growth in loans to non-
financial institutions and to households stood at
15.3 % and 3 % as of July 1, 2009 (as against
51.2 % and 53.5 %. respectively , a year earlier).
As a result, the annual rate of growth in total debt
on loans declined from 51.8 % as of July 1, 2008,
to 12.3 % as of July 1, 2009.
26 2009 Q2
At the same time, money market stabilisa -
tion and positive trends in banking sector liquid -
ity formed conditions for gradual credit supply
recovery. Therefore, it is extremely important for
the banking sector to assess its exposure to bor -
rowers’ insolvency resulting from the unfavour -
able macroeconomic situation. Growth in overdue
debt, which reflects these risks and negatively im-
pacts banks’ balance sheet performance, contin -
ued in the second quarter of the year and became
a factor restraining credit supply.
Credit aggregates dynamics was negatively
affected both by supply factors and by limited
credit demand amid general economic slowdown
and high interest rates.
The slump in credit activity was most marked
in the mortgage loan market. The value of new
loans decreased almost by 6 times in 2009 Q2,
year on year . The annual rates of growth in mort-
gage credit continue to decline contributing to
weaker activity in the housing market, reflected,
in particular , in downward trend in prices.
2009 Q2 27
Statistical Addendum
Table 1
Consumer prices by group of goods and services
(month on month, %)
Monthly
inflation
Core
inflation
Food price
growth
Food price
growth 1
Vegetable
and fruit price
growth
Non-food
price growth
Growth in non-
food prices,
excluding petrol
prices 2
Service price
growth
January 1.7 0.6 0.9 0.6 4.1 0.4 0.4 4.7
February 1.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 3.6 0.3 0.4 2.6
March 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.5 3.2 0.4 0.4 0.6
April 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.5 3.1 0.4 0.4 0.5
May 0.6 0.3 1.0 0.1 7.8 0.4 0.3 0.5
June 1.0 0.4 1.7 0.4 12.2 0.3 0.3 0.6
July 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.9 0.4 0.4 0.6
August 0.1 1.1 -0.6 1.6 -16.1 0.6 0.5 0.5
September 0.8 1.6 1.0 2.2 -8.8 0.8 0.8 0.4
October 1.6 2.1 3.3 3.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.1
November 1.2 1.1 1.9 1.5 6.2 0.9 0.8 0.6
December 1.1 0.9 1.6 1.2 5.6 0.7 0.5 0.9
Full year (December on December) 11.9 11.0 15.6 14.9 22.2 6.5 6.4 13.3
January 2.3 1.1 1.9 1.2 8.3 0.6 0.6 5.4
February 1.2 1.0 1.7 1.3 5.1 0.6 0.6 1.4
March 1.2 1.1 2.0 1.5 5.9 0.7 0.7 0.6
April 1.4 1.3 2.2 1.8 5.5 0.9 0.7 1.0
May 1.4 1.1 2.1 1.5 6.4 0.8 0.6 1.0
June 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.7 0.5 1.1
July 0.5 0.8 0.1 1.0 -6.7 0.7 0.5 0.9
August 0.4 1.0 -0.2 1.2 -11.3 0.6 0.6 0.9
September 0.8 1.4 0.7 1.5 -6.4 0.7 0.8 1.0
October 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.8 -0.4 0.8 1.0 0.0
November 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.9 0.7
December 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.7 0.1 0.6 1.0
Full year (December on December) 13.3 13.6 16.5 17.5 7.7 8.0 8.4 13.3
January 2.4 1.3 1.4 1.1 4.7 0.7 1.0 6.3
February 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.5 4.9 1.6 1.8 1.4
March 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.4 4.5 1.4 1.6 0.6
April 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 -0.1 1.0 1.1 0.3
May 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.3 4.1 0.7 0.8 0.3
June 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.1 3.9 0.8 0.3 0.5
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Since March 2005 – Bank of Russia estimate.
Note. T ables 1 to 7 are based on Rosstat data and Bank of Russia calculations.
28 2009 Q2
Table 2
Consumer prices by group of goods and services
(since start of year on accrual basis, %)
Monthly
inflation
Core
inflation
Food price
growth
Food price
growth 1
Vegetable
and fruit price
growth
Non-food
price growth
Growth in non-
food prices,
excluding petrol
prices 2
Service price
growth
January 1.7 0.6 0.9 0.6 4.1 0.4 0.4 4.7
February 2.8 1.1 1.8 1.1 7.8 0.7 0.8 7.4
March 3.4 1.7 2.6 1.7 11.2 1.1 1.2 8.0
April 4.0 2.2 3.3 2.1 14.7 1.5 1.7 8.6
May 4.7 2.5 4.3 2.3 23.6 1.9 2.0 9.1
June 5.7 3.0 6.1 2.7 38.6 2.2 2.3 9.8
July 6.6 3.9 7.6 4.1 41.2 2.6 2.8 10.5
August 6.7 5.0 7.0 5.8 18.5 3.2 3.3 11.1
September 7.5 6.7 8.1 8.1 8.1 4.0 4.2 11.6
October 9.3 8.9 11.6 11.9 9.0 4.9 5.1 11.7
November 10.6 10.1 13.7 13.5 15.7 5.8 5.9 12.4
December 11.9 11.0 15.6 14.9 22.2 6.5 6.4 13.3
January 2.3 1.1 1.9 1.2 8.3 0.6 0.6 5.4
February 3.5 2.1 3.6 2.5 13.9 1.2 1.2 6.8
March 4.8 3.2 5.7 4.0 20.6 2.0 1.9 7.5
April 6.3 4.5 8.0 5.9 27.2 2.9 2.6 8.5
May 7.7 5.7 10.2 7.5 35.4 3.7 3.2 9.6
June 8.7 6.7 11.4 8.7 36.0 4.4 3.7 10.8
July 9.3 7.6 11.5 9.8 26.9 5.2 4.2 11.9
August 9.7 8.6 11.3 11.2 12.5 5.8 4.9 12.9
September 10.6 10.1 12.1 12.9 5.3 6.5 5.7 14.0
October 11.6 11.5 13.9 14.9 4.8 7.3 6.8 14.1
November 12.5 12.7 15.3 16.3 5.9 7.8 7.8 14.8
December 13.3 13.6 16.5 17.5 7.7 8.0 8.4 13.3
January 2.4 1.3 1.4 1.1 4.7 0.7 1.0 6.3
February 4.1 2.9 3.3 2.6 9.8 2.3 2.8 7.8
March 5.4 4.3 5.0 4.0 14.7 3.8 4.5 8.5
April 6.2 5.2 5.8 4.8 14.6 4.8 5.7 8.7
May 6.8 5.7 6.5 5.1 19.3 5.5 6.5 9.1
June 7.4 6.0 7.0 5.2 24.0 6.3 6.9 9.6
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Since March 2005 – Bank of Russia estimate.
Statistical Addendum
2009 Q2 29
Table 3
Consumer prices by group of goods and services
(month on corresponding month of previous year, %)
Monthly
inflation
Core
inflation
Food price
growth
Food price
growth 1
Vegetable
and fruit price
growth
Non-food
price growth
Growth in non-
food prices,
excluding petrol
prices 2
Service price
growth
January 8.2 7.7 7.6 8.0 3.1 6.0 5.7 12.3
February 7.6 6.9 5.3 6.6 -5.1 5.8 5.6 14.2
March 7.4 6.7 4.9 6.2 -5.2 5.8 5.6 14.0
April 7.6 6.8 5.4 6.3 -1.9 5.9 5.8 13.9
May 7.8 6.7 5.9 6.3 3.0 5.9 5.7 13.8
June 8.5 6.9 7.7 6.6 16.2 5.9 5.7 13.7
July 8.7 7.3 8.3 7.4 15.3 5.9 5.8 13.7
August 8.6 7.8 8.3 8.3 7.5 5.7 5.8 13.4
September 9.4 8.7 10.0 10.0 10.2 5.8 6.1 13.4
October 10.8 10.3 13.6 13.4 15.9 6.0 6.3 13.1
November 11.5 10.9 14.9 14.4 19.8 6.3 6.4 13.2
December 11.9 11.0 15.6 14.9 22.2 6.5 6.4 13.3
January 12.6 11.5 16.7 15.7 27.2 6.8 6.6 14.1
February 12.7 12.1 17.6 16.5 29.1 7.0 6.8 12.7
March 13.3 12.7 19.1 17.6 32.6 7.4 7.1 12.7
April 14.3 13.5 20.8 19.1 35.6 8.0 7.4 13.3
May 15.1 14.5 22.1 20.8 33.9 8.4 7.7 13.9
June 15.1 15.1 21.3 21.7 19.9 8.9 7.9 14.4
July 14.7 15.0 19.8 21.2 9.8 9.2 8.0 14.7
August 15.0 14.8 20.2 20.8 16.1 9.2 8.1 15.2
September 15.0 14.5 19.9 20.0 19.0 9.1 8.1 15.9
October 14.2 13.7 17.9 18.0 17.5 9.1 8.2 15.7
November 13.8 13.7 17.2 17.7 11.9 8.6 8.4 15.8
December 13.3 13.6 16.5 17.5 7.7 8.0 8.4 13.3
January 13.4 13.9 15.9 17.3 4.1 8.1 8.9 16.9
February 13.9 14.6 16.1 17.6 3.8 9.2 10.2 17.0
March 14.0 14.9 15.8 17.4 2.5 9.9 11.2 17.0
April 13.2 14.4 14.1 16.3 -3.0 10.0 11.7 16.2
May 12.3 13.6 12.5 14.9 -5.1 9.9 11.9 15.4
June 11.9 12.9 11.9 13.7 -1.8 9.9 11.7 14.6
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Since March 2005 – Bank of Russia estimate.
30 2009 Q2
Table 4
Inflation growth over period since start of year due to price changes
by group of goods and services (percentage points)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food
products
Paid
services
Vegetables and
fruit
Inflation over
period, %
Core
inflation
Non-core
inflation 2
January 0.2 0.1 1.2 0.2 1.7 0.5 1.2
February 0.4 0.3 1.8 0.3 2.8 0.9 1.9
March 0.6 0.4 2.0 0.4 3.4 1.3 2.1
April 0.8 0.5 2.1 0.6 4.0 1.7 2.3
May 0.8 0.7 2.3 0.9 4.7 1.9 2.7
June 1.0 0.8 2.4 1.5 5.7 2.3 3.4
July 1.5 0.9 2.6 1.6 6.6 3.0 3.6
August 2.1 1.1 2.7 0.7 6.7 3.9 2.8
September 3.0 1.4 2.9 0.3 7.5 5.3 2.3
October 4.3 1.7 2.9 0.3 9.3 7.0 2.3
November 4.9 2.0 3.1 0.6 10.6 7.9 2.7
December 5.4 2.3 3.3 0.9 11.9 8.7 3.2
January 0.4 0.2 1.3 0.3 2.3 0.8 1.5
February 0.9 0.4 1.7 0.5 3.5 1.6 1.9
March 1.4 0.7 1.9 0.8 4.8 2.5 2.3
April 2.1 1.0 2.1 1.0 6.3 3.6 2.7
May 2.6 1.3 2.4 1.4 7.7 4.5 3.2
June 3.1 1.6 2.7 1.4 8.7 5.3 3.5
July 3.5 1.9 3.0 1.0 9.3 6.0 3.3
August 3.9 2.1 3.2 0.5 9.7 6.8 2.9
September 4.5 2.3 3.5 0.2 10.6 8.0 2.6
October 5.2 2.6 3.5 0.2 11.6 9.2 2.4
November 5.8 2.8 3.7 0.2 12.5 10.1 2.4
December 6.2 2.9 4.0 0.3 13.3 10.8 2.5
January 0.4 0.3 1.6 0.2 2.4 1.0 1.4
February 0.9 0.9 2.0 0.4 4.1 2.4 1.7
March 1.4 1.4 2.1 0.5 5.4 3.5 2.0
April 1.6 1.8 2.2 0.5 6.2 4.2 2.0
May 1.8 2.1 2.3 0.7 6.8 4.6 2.2
June 1.8 2.4 2.4 0.9 7.4 4.8 2.6
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
Statistical Addendum
2009 Q2 31
Table 5
Monthly inflation growth due to price changes
by group of goods and services (percentage points)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food
products
Paid
services
Vegetables
and fruit
Inflation over
period, %
Core
inflation
Non-core
inflation 2
January 0,2 0,1 1,2 0,2 1,7 0,5 1,2
February 0,2 0,1 0,7 0,1 1,1 0,4 0,7
March 0,2 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,6 0,4 0,2
April 0,2 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,6 0,4 0,2
May 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,3 0,6 0,2 0,4
June 0,2 0,1 0,2 0,6 1,0 0,3 0,6
July 0,5 0,1 0,2 0,1 0,9 0,7 0,2
August 0,6 0,2 0,1 -0,8 0,1 0,8 -0,7
September 0,8 0,3 0,1 -0,4 0,8 1,3 -0,5
October 1,3 0,3 0,0 0,0 1,6 1,6 0,0
November 0,5 0,3 0,2 0,2 1,2 0,8 0,4
December 0,5 0,2 0,2 0,2 1,1 0,7 0,5
January 0,4 0,2 1,3 0,3 2,3 0,8 1,5
February 0,4 0,2 0,3 0,2 1,2 0,8 0,4
March 0,5 0,3 0,2 0,3 1,2 0,8 0,3
April 0,6 0,3 0,3 0,2 1,4 1,0 0,4
May 0,5 0,3 0,3 0,3 1,4 0,9 0,5
June 0,4 0,3 0,3 0,0 1,0 0,7 0,2
July 0,4 0,2 0,2 -0,3 0,5 0,7 -0,1
August 0,4 0,2 0,2 -0,5 0,4 0,8 -0,4
September 0,5 0,2 0,3 -0,3 0,8 1,1 -0,3
October 0,6 0,3 0,0 0,0 0,9 1,1 -0,2
November 0,5 0,2 0,2 0,0 0,8 0,8 0,0
December 0,4 0,0 0,2 0,1 0,7 0,6 0,1
January 0,4 0,3 1,6 0,2 2,4 1,0 1,4
February 0,5 0,6 0,4 0,2 1,7 1,3 0,3
March 0,5 0,5 0,2 0,2 1,3 1,1 0,2
April 0,3 0,4 0,1 0,0 0,7 0,7 0,0
May 0,1 0,3 0,1 0,2 0,6 0,4 0,2
June 0,0 0,3 0,1 0,2 0,6 0,2 0,4
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
32 2009 Q2
Table 6
Contribution to inflation growth over period since start of year
by group of goods and services (%)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food products Paid services Vegetables and fruit Core inflation Non-core inflation 2
January 13.4 8.3 69.0 9.3 29.5 70.5
February 14.9 9.2 65.3 10.6 31.3 68.7
March 17.8 11.6 58.1 12.5 38.3 61.7
April 19.6 13.5 52.9 14.1 42.8 57.2
May 18.0 14.3 48.3 19.4 41.6 58.4
June 17.6 13.7 42.7 26.0 40.4 59.6
July 22.9 13.9 39.2 23.9 45.8 54.2
August 31.7 16.9 40.8 10.6 58.5 41.5
September 39.3 18.7 37.9 4.1 69.9 30.1
October 46.6 18.6 31.1 3.7 75.4 24.6
November 46.3 19.2 28.8 5.7 74.5 25.5
December 45.7 19.4 27.8 7.2 72.8 27.2
January 18.9 9.3 58.1 13.7 36.2 63.8
February 25.1 12.1 47.9 14.9 46.1 53.9
March 29.7 14.7 39.0 16.6 52.7 47.3
April 33.0 16.5 33.9 16.6 57.0 43.0
May 34.2 17.1 31.1 17.6 58.5 41.5
June 35.2 18.2 30.8 15.7 60.5 39.5
July 37.3 19.9 31.7 11.1 64.4 35.6
August 40.6 21.4 33.0 5.0 70.5 29.5
September 43.0 22.0 33.1 1.9 75.7 24.3
October 45.3 22.9 30.2 1.6 79.2 20.8
November 46.0 22.6 29.6 1.8 80.8 19.2
December 46.4 21.6 29.8 2.2 81.5 18.5
January 15.6 11.3 66.2 7.0 42.3 57.7
February 22.1 21.5 47.9 8.6 57.7 42.3
March 25.3 26.1 38.9 9.7 64.0 36.0
April 26.7 29.3 35.5 8.5 67.9 32.1
May 25.9 30.5 33.4 10.2 67.5 32.5
June 24.1 31.9 32.4 11.6 65.0 35.0
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
Statistical Addendum
2009 Q2 33
Table 7
Contribution to monthly inflation growth
by group of goods and services (%)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food products Paid services Vegetables and fruit Core inflation Non-core inflation 2
January 13.4 8.3 69.0 9.3 29.5 70.5
February 17.1 10.6 59.7 12.6 34.2 65.8
March 31.4 22.7 24.5 21.4 70.7 29.3
April 30.0 24.6 22.3 23.1 69.6 30.4
May 8.4 19.5 20.6 51.6 34.4 65.6
June 15.8 10.7 17.0 56.5 35.1 64.9
July 55.9 15.7 17.4 10.9 79.2 20.8
August 724.2 250.9 165.2 -1,040.4 1,016.5 -916.5
September 99.9 33.4 14.7 -48.0 160.7 -60.7
October 78.5 18.2 1.2 2.1 99.3 0.7
November 43.6 23.6 13.3 19.5 67.8 32.2
December 39.2 21.6 19.2 20.0 56.7 43.3
January 18.9 9.3 58.1 13.7 36.2 63.8
February 36.8 17.4 28.5 17.3 64.9 35.1
March 43.2 22.6 12.8 21.4 72.2 27.8
April 43.5 22.0 17.6 16.9 70.3 29.7
May 39.1 20.1 18.9 21.9 65.2 34.8
June 42.7 26.5 28.7 2.2 74.5 25.5
July 69.6 47.5 45.8 -62.9 125.6 -25.6
August 122.9 59.3 67.5 -149.7 225.0 -125.0
September 69.7 29.4 34.5 -33.6 136.6 -36.6
October 69.5 32.2 -0.1 -1.7 116.9 -16.9
November 54.4 19.8 21.2 4.7 100.5 -0.5
December 50.8 5.9 34.3 8.9 91.7 8.3
January 15.6 11.3 66.2 7.0 42.3 57.7
February 31.2 35.9 22.0 10.9 79.5 20.5
March 35.2 40.0 11.7 13.1 83.0 17.0
April 37.5 53.9 9.3 -0.7 97.1 2.9
May 17.1 42.5 13.3 27.1 62.6 37.4
June 5.7 46.9 20.7 26.8 38.4 61.6
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
34 2009 Q2
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Macroeconomic indicators
GDP
over period since start of year, billion roubles
2007 6,750 14,515 23,419 33,111
2008 8,891 19,084 30,724 41,668
2009 8,483
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2007 107.5 107.8 107.8 108.1
2008 108.7 108.0 107.3 105.6
2009 90.2
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2007 107.5 108.0 107.7 109.0
2008 108.7 107.5 106.0 101.2
2009 90.2
Industrial output indices
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2007 107.2 107.1 105.5 105.7
2008 106.2 105.5 104.7 93.9
2009 85.7 84.6
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2007 107.2 107.1 106.6 106.3
2008 106.2 105.8 105.4 102.1
2009 85.7 85.2
Agricultural output
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2007 103.5 104.4 103.2 103.2
2008 105.5 106.9 113.0 115.6
2009 102.1 100.3
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2007 103.5 104.1 103.5 103.4
2008 105.5 106.4 109.6 110.8
2009 102.1 100.9
Fixed capital investment
over period since start of year, billion roubles
2007 924.0 2,387.0 4,174.1 6,716.2
2008 1,355.4 3,411.7 5,826.7 8,764.9
2009 1,285.1 3,036.6
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2007 123.8 125.4 119.8 122.8
2008 123.6 117.4 111.7 97.7
2009 84.4 80.0
Retail trade turnover
over period since start of year, billion roubles
2007 2,257.8 4,800.4 7,599.6 10,869.0
2008 2,952.5 6,278.4 9,936.1 13,919.6
2009 3,306.6 6,800.0
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2007 114.8 115.8 116.8 116.8
2008 117.2 114.9 115.0 108.7
2009 99.9 94.4
Federal budget on accrual
basis, as of end of period
revenue
billion roubles
2007 1,421.9 3,245.7 5,087.6 7,781.1
2008 1,932.7 4,370.7 7,155.7 9,275.9
2009 1,732.7 3,172.2
as % of GDP
2007 21.1 22.3 21.7 23.5
2008 21.7 22.9 23.3 22.3
2009 20.4 17.7 1
expenditure
billion roubles
2007 945.6 2,169.7 3,464.3 5,986.6
2008 1,332.7 2,995.6 4,594.2 7,570.9
2009 1,762.4 3,893.8
as % of GDP
2007 14.0 14.9 14.8 18.1
2008 15.0 15.7 15.0 18.2
2009 20.8 21.7 1
Federal budget surplus (+)/deficit (-) on accrual
basis, as of end of period
billion roubles
2007 476.3 1,076.1 1,623.2 1,794.6
2008 600.0 1,375.1 2,561.5 1,705.1
2009 -29.7 -721.7
as % of GDP
2007 7.1 7.4 6.9 5.4
2008 6.7 7.2 8.3 4.1
2009 -0.4 -4.0 1
Table 8
Russia’s key macroeconomic and financial indicators
Note: T able 8 is based on data compiled by the Bank of Russia, the Federal State Statistics Service, the Ministry of Finance of the
Russian Federation and the Federal T reasury.
Statistical Addendum
2009 Q2 35
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Socio-economic indicators
Nominal imputed average
monthly per employee wage
roubles
2007 11,876 12,993 13,494 15,742
2008 15,424 16,962 17,556 18,966
2009 17,441 18,309
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2007 127.3 125.9 124.0 129.3
2008 128.0 129.2 129.0 119.5
2009 112.8 107.3
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2007 127.3 126.6 125.7 127.8
2008 128.0 128.6 128.7 127.2
2009 112.8 109.9
Real imputed average monthly per employee wage, as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2007 118.2 116.6 113.9 116.1
2008 113.4 112.5 112.2 105.0
2009 99.2 95.4
Household money income (per capita monthly average), roubles
2007 9,976.9 11,987.8 12,725.8 15,677.9
2008 12,374.8 14,876.2 15,866.8 17,396.6
2009 13,971.3 16,889.0
Household real disposable
money income
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2007 111.9 110.0 112.4 113.0
2008 108.0 106.2 106.2 94.2
2009 99.8 100.2
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2007 111.9 … … 112.1
2008 108.0 107.1 106.8 102.9
2009 99.8 100.0
Household spending, as % of
income
purchase of goods and services
2007 73.6 69.3 71.2 66.0
2008 76.5 71.6 73.4 71.7
2009 76.3 65.0
compulsory payments and contributions
2007 12.0 11.9 11.6 11.6
2008 12.7 12.5 12.7 14.1
2009 11.3 12.4
growth in savings
2007 10.2 9.0 8.1 11.0
2008 7.7 8.2 5.8 2.5
2009 8.7 17.1
foreign exchange purchase
2007 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1
2008 6.9 4.7 5.6 13.3
2009 10.3 3.5
cash on hand
2007 -1.0 4.6 3.9 6.3
2008 -3.8 3.0 2.5 -1.6
2009 -6.6 2.0
Average imputed pension, total, roubles
2007 2,846 3,091 3,108 3,418
2008 3,823 4,044 4,383 4,545
2009 4,614 5,151
Real imputed pension
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2007 104.1 104.9 102.0 108.1
2008 119.0 113.9 122.7 116.9
2009 106.1 113.3
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2007 104.1 104.5 103.6 104.8
2008 119.0 116.4 118.6 118.1
2009 106.1 109.8
Total number of unemployed
(calculated using ILO
methodology)
million
2007 5.2 4.5 4.3 4.4
2008 5.1 4.3 4.5 5.4
2009 6.8 6.5
as % of economically active population
2007 7.0 6.0 5.7 5.8
2008 6.7 5.6 5.9 7.1
2009 9.1 8.6
Table 8 (continued)
36 2009 Q2
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Foreign economic activities
Price of Urals crude
over period since start of year, $/barrel
2007 54.0 59.7 64.0 69.5
2008 93.7 105.3 107.6 93.9
2009 43.2 50.5
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2007 93.5 97.7 102.4 114.1
2008 173.7 176.3 168.2 135.1
2009 46.1 48.0
Exports of goods
over period since start of year, $ billion
2007 71.7 155.4 244.9 354.4
2008 110.1 236.8 373.6 471.6
2009 57.4 125.5 2
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2007 106.5 108.0 109.5 116.8
2008 153.6 152.4 152.5 133.1
2009 52.1 53.0 2
Imports of goods
over period since start of year, $ billion
2007 42.8 95.5 153.9 223.5
2008 60.2 135.7 218.6 291.9
2009 38.4 82.2 2
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2007 138.6 137.1 137.0 136.0
2008 140.8 142.0 142.0 130.6
2009 63.7 60.6 2
Current account (over period since start of year), $ billion
2007 22.6 37.1 52.8 77.0
2008 38.0 64.3 93.9 102.4
2009 9.1 17.2 2
Private sector net capital outflow (inflow) (over period since start of year), $ billion
2007 13.8 68.1 60.9 82.4
2008 -23.7 17.0 -2.3 -132.8
2009 -34.8 -27.6 2
Foreign investment in Russia’s non-financial sector
(Rosstat data)
over period since start of year, $ billion
2007 24.6 60.3 87.9 120.9
2008 17.3 46.5 75.8 103.8
2009 12.0
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2007 2.8 times 2.6 times 2.5 times 2.2 times
2008 70.1 77.1 86.2 85.8
2009 69.7
of which:
direct
over period since start of year, $ billion
2007 9.8 15.8 19.6 27.8
2008 5.6 11.1 19.2 27.0
2009 3.2
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2007 2.5 times 2.5 times 191.3 2.0 times
2008 57.2 70.0 97.7 97.2
2009 57.0
portfolio
over period since start of year, $ billion
2007 0.2 1.1 1.5 4.2
2008 0.1 1.2 1.3 1.4
2009 0.1
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2007 85.8 2.2 times 2.3 times 131.8
2008 62.5 104.4 83.7 33.7
2009 93.5
other
over period since start of year, $ billion
2007 14.7 43.4 66.7 89.0
2008 11.5 34.3 55.3 75.3
2009 8.7
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2007 3.1 times 2.6 times 2.7 times 2.3 times
2008 78.7 79.0 82.8 84.7
2009 75.6
Russia’s international reserves (as of end of period), $ billion
2007 338.8 405.8 425.4 478.8
2008 512.6 569.0 556.8 427.1
2009 383.9 412.6
Real rouble exchange rate indices, last month of
quarter (growth as % of December of previous
year) 3
rouble vs. US dollar
2007 2.3 3.8 8.1 15.0
2008 6.5 8.5 3.2 -1.1
2009 -15.4 -5.0
rouble vs. euro
2007 3.1 4.1 4.5 5.8
2008 0.6 3.4 6.2 5.0
2009 -12.0 -7.0
effective rate
2007 2.7 3.3 3.8 5.1
2008 1.5 3.3 3.0 4.3
2009 -10.0 -4.2
Table 8 (continued)
Statistical Addendum
2009 Q2 37
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Financial market indicators (including Sberbank rates)
Average for period
Overnight interbank credit
rate, % p.a.
in roubles
2007 3.9 3.4 4.9 5.4
2008 3.9 4.1 6.0 8.6
2009 11.6 7.7
in US dollars
2007 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.5
2008 3.2 2.2 2.2 0.7
2009 0.2 0.2
OFZ yields 4, % p.a.
2007 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6
2008 6.7 6.9 7.5 8.7
2009 10.5 10.3
Interest rate on household
time deposits, % p.a.
up to 1 year in roubles
2007 7.4 7.3 7.0 7.2
2008 7.0 7.1 7.5 9.0
2009 10.0 10.8
over 1 year in roubles
2007 7.9 7.5 7.1 6.8
2008 7.4 8.0 8.5 9.1
2009 10.0 10.3
up to 1 year in US dollars
2007 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2
2008 5.1 5.8 5.3 6.5
2009 6.0 5.3
over 1 year in US dollars
2007 6.8 6.6 6.4 7.0
2008 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.8
2009 6.5 6.1
Interest rate on credit to non-
financial organisations, % p.a.
up to 1 year in roubles
2007 9.9 9.6 9.8 10.7
2008 10.9 11.2 12.0 14.9
2009 16.6 15.8
over 1 year in roubles
2007 12.1 11.5 11.0 11.4
2008 12.3 12.8 13.6 13.8
2009 15.1 16.2
up to 1 year in US dollars
2007 8.7 8.8 8.4 9.1
2008 8.1 8.0 8.9 10.9
2009 10.7 10.1
over 1 year in US dollars
2007 10.3 10.1 9.3 9.8
2008 9.3 9.9 9.4 11.3
2009 12.7 11.6
Interest rate on rouble-denominated promissory notes discounted by banks, % p.a.
2007 9.5 8.9 10.8 10.8
2008 10.7 11.0 12.1 14.1
2009 15.7 14.3
MICEX rate in ‘tomorrow’ trades, rouble/$
2007 26.3056 25.8599 25.5043 24.6525
2008 24.2286 23.6190 24.2718 27.2941
2009 34.4761 32.2032
As of end of quarter
RTS index, points
2007 1,935.72 1,897.70 2,071.80 2,290.51
2008 2,053.93 2,303.34 1,211.84 631.89
2009 689.63 987.02
Refinance rate, % p.a.
2007 10.5 10.0 10.0 10.0
2008 10.25 10.75 11.0 13.0
2009 13.0 11.5
Table 8 (continued)
38 2009 Q2
Table 8 (end)
Year 1.01 1.04 1.07 1.10
Monetary indicators
M0, billion roubles
2007 2,785.2 2,741.2 3,027.5 3,220.9
2008 3,702.2 3,475.5 3,724.9 3,904.2
2009 3,794.8 3,278.3 3,522.5
M2, billion roubles
2007 8,995.8 9,412.6 10,857.7 11,494.0
2008 13,272.1 13,382.9 14,244.7 14,374.6
2009 13,493.2 12,111.7 13,161.0
Obligations included in broad money, billion roubles
2007 10,149.4 10,898.4 12,033.4 12,699.7
2008 14,636.7 14,918.3 15,926.6 16,067.8
2009 16,774.7 16,308.4 17 055.4 1
Net foreign assets, billion roubles
2007 6,881.5 7,927.4 8,714.1 9,047.0
2008 9,923.4 10,541.0 11,278.7 12,287.4
2009 12,215.5 12,884.6 13,053.1 1
Domestic claims, billion roubles
2007 5,799.2 5,798.6 6,331.1 6,771.7
2008 8,325.9 8,437.2 8,760.6 8,614.9
2009 10,645.1 10,307.4 11 076.4 1
Broad monetary base, billion roubles
2007 4,122.4 4,210.2 5,139.1 4,587.2
2008 5,513.3 4,871.4 5,422.9 5,317.8
2009 5,578.7 4,298.8 4,967.6
Balances of correspondent accounts, billion roubles
2007 638.1 518.1 528.7 576.3
2008 802.2 596.3 592.4 702.9
2009 1,027.6 431.7 471.4
M2 velocity
annual average
2007 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2
2008 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.1
2009 3.1 3.1 3.0 1
change since start of year, %
2007 -13.2 5 -6.0 -12.1 -16.1
2008 -18.6 5 -2.6 -3.0 -2.2
2009 -2.1 5 0.8 -0.5 1
Monetisation of the economy (by M2 aggregate), %
2007 26.1 27.8 29.7 31.1
2008 32.1 32.9 33.1 32.8
2009 32.7 32.5 32.9 1
Money multiplier
by broad monetary base
2007 2.18 2.24 2.11 2.51
2008 2.41 2.75 2.63 2.70
2009 2.42 2.82 2.65
change since start of year, %
2007 5.2 5 2.5 -3.2 14.8
2008 10.3 5 14.1 9.1 12.3
2009 0.5 5 16.5 9.6
Foreign exchange rates
roubles per US dollar
2007 26.33 26.01 25.82 24.95
2008 24.55 23.50 23.41 25.37
2009 29.39 33.90 31.04
roubles per euro
2007 34.70 34.69 34.72 35.35
2008 35.93 37.09 36.97 36.50
2009 41.43 44.89 43.85
1 Preliminary data.
2 Estimate.
3 (+) signifies appreciation of the ruble, (-) signifies depreciation of the ruble.
4 OFZ effective market portfolio indicator.
5 Relative to beginning of previous year.
Statistical Addendum
2009 Q2 39
Table 9
Bank of Russia interest rates (% p.a.)
Instrument Liquidity provision/
absorption period
Interest rate
1.01.09-
1.02.09
2.02.09-
9.02.09
10.02.09-
23.04.09
24.04.09-
13.05.09
14.05.09-
4.06.09
5.06.09-
12.07.09
13.07.09-
9.08.09
Since
10.08.09
Providing liquidity at offered bids (including by auction)
Repo operations 1
1 day 9.00 9.00 10.00 9.50 9.00 8.50 8.00 7.75
1 week 9.50 9.50 10.50 10.00 9.50 9.00 8.50 8.25
3 months 10.50 10.50 11.50 11.00 10.75 10.25 9.75 9.50
6 months 11.25 11.25 12.25 11.75 11.25 10.75 10.25 10.00
12 months 11.75 11.75 12.75 12.25 11.75 11.25 10.75 10.50
Currency swap operations 2 1 day 13.00 13.00 13.00 12.50 12.00 11.50 11.00 10.75
Unsecured loans up to 6 months minimum rate is set when auction is announced
Lombard loans 1,3
2 weeks 9.50 9.50 10.50 10.00 9.50 9.00 8.50 8.25
3 months 10.50 10.50 11.50 11.00 10.75 10.25 9.75 9.50
6 months 11.25 11.25 12.25 11.75 11.25 10.75 10.25 10.00
12 months 11.75 11.75 12.75 12.25 11.75 11.25 10.75 10.50
Providing liquidity at fixed rates
Overnight loans 3,4 1 day 13.00 13.00 13.00 12.50 12.00 11.50 11.00 10.75
Lombard loans 3
1 day 10.00 11.00 12.00 11.50 11.00 10.50 10.00 9.75
7 days 10.00 11.00 12.00 11.50 11.00 10.50 10.00 9.75
30 days 10.25 11.00 12.00 11.50 11.00 10.50 10.00 9.75
Repo operations
1 day 10.00 11.00 12.00 11.50 11.00 10.50 10.00 9.75
7 days 10.00 11.00 12.00 11.50 11.00 10.50 10.00 9.75
1 year 11.25 10.75 10.50
Loans secured by “non-market” assets or
guarantees 4
up to 90 days 11.00 11.25 12.00 11.50 11.00 10.50 10.00 9.75
91 to 180 days 12.00 12.00 12.50 12.00 11.50 11.00 10.50 10.25
181 to 365 days 5 13.00 13.00 13.00 12.50 12.00 11.50 11.00 10.75
Absorbing liquidity at fixed rates
Deposit operations
Tom-next, spot-next
and call 6.75 6.75 7.75 7.25 6.75 6.25 5.75 5.50
1 week, spot-week 7.25 7.25 8.25 7.75 7.25 6.75 6.25 6.00
1 Minimum interest rate.
2 Interest rate set on the ruble part when determining the minimum offered swap difference.
3 Pursuant to Bank of Russia Regulation No. 236-P of August 4. 2003.
4 Pursuant to Bank of Russia Regulation No. 312-P of November 12. 2007.
5 From January 20. 2009.
40 2009 Q2
Table 10
Bank required reserve ratios (%)
Required reserve ratio for bank obligations
to non-resident banks in Russian and
foreign currency
Required reserve ratio for obligations to
individuals in Russian currency
Required reserve ratio for other bank
obligations in Russian and foreign currency
July 1, 2007 – October 10, 2007 4.5 4.0 4.5
October 11, 2007 – January 14, 2008 3.5 3.0 3.5
January 15, 2008 – February 29, 2008 4.5 4.0 4.5
March 1, 2008 – June 30, 2008 5.5 4.5 5.0
July 1, 2008 – August 31, 2008 7.0 5.0 5.5
September 1, 2008 – September 17, 2008 8.5 5.5 6.0
September 18, 2008 – October 14, 2008 4.5 1.5 2.0
October 15, 2008 – April 30, 2009 0.5 0.5 0.5
May 1, 2009 – May 31, 2009 1.0 1.0 1.0
June 1, 2009 – June 30, 2009 1.5 1.5 1.5
July 1, 2009 – July 31, 2009 2.0 2.0 2.0
August 1, 2009 – 2.5 2.5 2.5
© The Central Bank of the Russian Federation, 2009
Research and Information Department