NBP MPC Press Release - 2025-11-01
Central bank: nbp | Type: decision | Date: 2025-11-01

Warsaw, 5 November 2025
Information from the meeting of the Monetary Policy Council
held on 4-5 November 2025
The Council decided to cut the NBP reference rate by 0.25 percentage points,
i.e. to 4.25%. At the same time, the Council set the remaining NBP interest rates at the
following levels:
▪ lombard rate at 4.75%;
▪ deposit rate at 3.75%;
▪ rediscount rate at 4.30%;
▪ discount rate at 4.35%.
According to preliminary flash estimate, in the euro area, the annual GDP growth in 2025
Q3 declined to 1. 3%. Also in the United States GDP growth in annual terms probably
slowed down in Q3. Inflation in the euro area is close to the European Central Bank
inflation target, whereas core inflation remains somewhat higher. I n the United States ,
inflation is running above the inflation target of the Federal Reserve, amidst elevated core
inflation. The outlook for global activity and inflation is subject to uncertainty, related,
among others, to changes in trade policies.
In Poland incoming data suggest ongoing favourable economic conditions. In particular,
September 2025 saw a rise in retail sales, industrial output and construction and assembly
production in annual terms. At the same time , quarterly data from the enterprise sector
indicate a gradual slowdown in the wage growth, amidst a further fall in employment in
annual terms.
According to the Statistics Poland flash estimate, annual CPI inflation in October 2025
declined to 2.8% ( compared to 2.9% in September 2025), largely due to lower annual
growth of food prices . Considering the Statistics Poland data, it can be estimated that
inflation net of food and energy prices also decreased, amidst still elevated services price
growth.
The Council became acquainted with the results of the November projection of inflation
and GDP based on the NECMOD model. In line with the projection, prepared under the
assumption of unchanged NBP interest rates and taking into account data available unti l
15 October 2025, there is a 50 -percent probability that the annual price growth will be in
the range of 3.6 – 3.7% in 2025 (against 3.5 – 4.4% in the July 2025 projection), 1.9 – 4.0% in
2026 (compared to 1.7 – 4.5%) and 1.1 – 4.1% in 2027 (compared to 0.9 – 3.8%). At the same
time, the annual GDP growth – according to the projection – will be with a 50 -percent
probability in the range of 3.1 – 3.8% in 2025 (against 2.9 – 4.3% in the July 2025 projection),
2.7 – 4.6% in 2026 (compared to 2.1 – 4.1%) and 1.5 – 3.7% in 2027 (compared to 1.3 – 3.7%).
Taking into account a decline in inflation and an improved inflation outlook for the
coming quarters, in the Council’s assessment, it became justified to adjust the level of the
NBP interest rates.
Further decisions of the Council will depend on incoming information regarding
prospects for inflation and economic activity. Fiscal policy, recovery of demand in the
economy and elevated wage growth remain risk factors for low inflation . Uncertainty
stems also from the level of energy prices and inflation developments abroad.
NBP will continue to take all necessary actions in order to ensure macroeconomic and
financial stability, including above all to keep inflation at the level consistent with the NBP
inflation target in the medium term. NBP may intervene in the foreign exchange market.