CBN MPC Communique No. 86 - November 2012
Central bank: cbn | Type: statement | Date: 2012-11-20

Central Bank of Nigeria Communiqué No. 86 of the Monetary Policy Committee
Meeting of Monday and Tuesday November 19 and 20, 2012
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met with nine out of the twelve
members in attendance. The Committee reviewed the domestic and global
economic conditions and financial environment as well as the challenges that
faced the Nigerian economy during the first ten months of fiscal 2012, with a
view to reassessing monetary policy options in the near-to-medium term.
The International Economic Situation
The Committee noted the continued deceleration in global output, which
resulted from a combination of austerity -driven euro-zone developments, weak
recovery in some Asian economies, and slowdown in major emerging market
economies. In addition, high and rising unemployment, fragile financial
conditions, weak housing markets, and deterioration in both public and private
sector balance sheet s in some major industrial countries posed major risks to
global economic recovery. Thus, global output growth in 2012, which was earlier
projected at 3.5 per cent in July 2012 by the IMF was revised downward to 3.3
per cent in the October 2012 World Economic Outlook ; that of 2013 was also
revised downward from 3.9 to 3.6 per cent. According to the Oct ober 2012
projection, there is a high probability of global growth falling below 2 .0 per cent
in 2012 and this would mirror the recession in the advanced economies and the
slowing output growth in key emerging markets and developing economies.
Growth in the advanced economies is estimated at 1.3 per cent in 2012 and 1.6
per cent in 2013, reflecting a downward revision of 0.1 and 0.3 percentage
point, respectively. The US economy continued on the path of modest recovery
as real output expanded by 2.0 per cent in the third quarter of 2012 compared
with 1.3 per cent in the second quarter, reflecting the positive contributions from
personal consumption expend iture, government spending, private inventory
and residential housing investment in the face of curren t low mortgage rates.
However, the recent hurricane Sandy across the east coast of the United States,
constitutes an immediate risk to the sustainability of the recent growth rally and
its impact is expected to truncate US recovery in the last quarter of 2012.
Another major risk to the medium term growth trajectory is the US “fiscal cliff ”.
The IMF has suggested a gradual resolution of the fiscal impasse in order to
avoid the possibility of a sharp contraction.
The Euro zone is officially in rec ession in addition to the persisting uncertainty
over agreements on a fiscal union, the start of European Central Bank’s (ECB)
oversight o f European banks and the fragility of the Greek, Spanish and other
peripheral economies. Real GDP in the zone is projected to c ontract by 0.4 per
cent in 2012 with unemployment rising to 11.50 per cent. The core economies in
the zone are expected to experience low but positive growth during 2012-13
while most economies in the periphery are expected to suffer sharp output
contraction in 2012 because of tight fiscal policies and weak financial
conditions.
The German e conomy recorded slight recovery with unemployment falling to
6.5 per cent while the United Kingdom snapped out of a recession, recording a
growth rate of 1.0 per cent after three successive quarters of contraction. Rising
uncertainty about the viability of the Euro zone and the possibility that the euro
area crisis will escalate remains a major downside risk to growth and financial
sector stability. Overall, continued austerity measures in the euro area are
having negative spill-over effect on the German economy which is now
wobbling on the verge of a recession due to widespread drop in aggregate
demand.
In emerging Asia, growth was estimated to have significantly weakened to less
than 7 per cent in the first half of 2012. Latest data indicate that growth in China
slowed for the seventh consecutive quarter to 7.40 per cent in Q3, 2012, lower
than the Q2, 2012 figure of 7.60 per cent. The Peoples Bank of China (PBC) had
already embarked on se quential monetary easing operations in order to loosen
liquidity conditions and stimulate growth. This will, however, increase the risk of
inflating real estate prices and a possible bubble with potential adverse impact
on the Chinese financial system. In India, output is expected to expand by 5.80
per cent in 2012 as against 6.50 per cent in 2011 with the slowdown resulting
from waning business confidence , sluggish structural reforms, policy rate hikes
designed to rein in inflation, and flagging external demand. In other parts of
Asia, growth has dipped, hampered by the weak performance of the Chinese
economy. Most countries continue to be affected by weak export growth while
the Monetary Authorities have responded with expansionary monetary policy.
Output growth for 2012 , at 5 .1 per cent , up from 3.3 per cent in 2011 for the
Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region , could be considered robust in the
face of global realities , but there is a sharp difference in growth performance
between the oil and non -oil exporting countries in the region. For the non -oil
exporting economies, growth is projected to register just above 2.0 per cent and
6.6 per cent for the oil exporting economies. Economic activities in the non-oil
exporting countries have remained suppressed by the growth deceleration in
the major trading partner -economies, internal conflicts and pervading
political/economic uncertainties. The robust growth projection for the oil
exporting countries, on the other hand, is anchored on increased government
expenditure supported by historically high oil prices. Despite th ese
developments, the Committee is of the view that growth for the MENA Region in
the medium term is faced with the risk of weak external demand , instability in
the regi on and an increasingly constrained environment for private sector
activity. However, Africa’s robust growth is not likely to affect the downward
trend in global output because of its small share (2.7 %) of global output.
Overall, t he Committee believes th at the fiscal gridlock in the US, the lingering
euro zone financial and economic crisis , as well as the softening output growth
in the key emerging Asian economies , could have se rious implications for the
domestic economy in the near -to-medium term. Specif ically, any negative
shock to the current high prices of crude oil would have adverse implications for
fiscal revenue flows and the external current account position, even though
current forecasts and developments in the Middle East do no t suggest the
possibility of a shock in the near term.
Domestic Economic and Financial Developments
Output
The National Bureau of Statistics has revised the real Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) growth for fiscal 2012 downwards to 6. 61 per cent from the earlier
projection of 6.85 per cent, indicating that the economy is encountering growth
challenges not previously anticipated . The estimates revealed a real GDP
growth rate of 6.48 per cent in the third quarter of 2012, up from 6. 39 per cent in
the second quarter but lower than the 7. 37 per cent recorded in the
corresponding period of 2011. The non-oil sector remained t
The Committee noted with concern the continuing decline in the contribution of
the oil sector to growth , in an area of strong oil price performance, which
became apparent in the last half of 2011 and also the decline in the
contribution of agriculture to growth since Q3, 2011, in spite of the i nvestment in
the Agricultural transformation initiatives of the Federal Government.
The relatively robust growth project ions for 2012 despite the slow down in the
global economy reflected the continuing favorable conditions for increased
agricultural production, the impact of the banking sector reforms and the
initiatives by government to stimulate the real economy. In this regard, the
Committee welcomed the recent improvements in electricity generation which
has impacted positively on manufacturing activities and overall capacity
utilization. The Committee enjoined the Federal Government to sustain the
efforts.
The Committee, however, observed that the recent flooding in several parts of
the country, current security challenges and corruption scandals posed serious
downside risks to growth in the near -to-medium term. Indeed, it noted that the
full impact of the widespread flooding was yet to manifest while the cost to the
economy was yet to be estimated. The committee noted the combined effects
of the high tariffs, floods and drought on global wheat supplies which have led
to higher prices of wheat in Nigeria.
Prices
The Committee noted that inflationary pressure , which moderat ed in the third
quarter of 2012, re-emerged in October 2012. The year -on-year headline
inflation inched up to 11.70 per cent in October 2012 from 11.3 per cent in
September while food inflation increased to 11.1 per cent from 10.2 per cent in
September. Core inflation continued it s sequential four-month moderation to
12.40 per cent from 13.10 per cent in September while the risk of food inflation
remained hawkish, thus creating mixed price signals . The major drivers of
inflation during the period include food and housing, water, electricity, gas and
other fuels. The pick-up in food inflation contradicted recent trends and may not
be unconnected with effects of the floods on farmlands , the impact of w hich
poses an upside risk to inflation in the near -term, coupled with continued
imported food inflation . Although core inflation continued its moderation, the
Committee considered the current level to still be elevated, driven largely by :
processed foods (3.7 per cent ); housing, water, electricity , gas and other fuels
(4.2 per cent); clothing and footwear (1. 4 per cent); transport (1. 10 per cent);
furnishing, household equipment and housing maintenance (0. 7 per cent); and
education (0.6 per cent). However, the major drivers of core inflation remained
outside the scope of monetary policy alone which was helpless in addressing
the structural components of inflation. In the meantime, fuel prices have risen
generally above the official pump price even withou t the total removal of oil
subsidy.
Monetary, Credit and Financial Markets Developments
Broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.23 per cent in October 2012 over the level
at end -December, 2011, which annualize s to 9.87 per cent. Aggregate
domestic credit (net) declined by 3.48 per cent in October 2012. The decline in
credit to government between Ju ne and October, implies that the Federal
Government is increasingly becoming a net creditor to the banking system
which perhaps reflects the impact of better fiscal management including the
introduction of Treasury Single Account.
Interest rates in all segments of the money market moderated between
September 19 and October 30, 2012, reflecting increased liquidity in the banking
system induced by the release of statut ory revenue to sub -national
governments, the repayments of matured CBN bills and absence of repo
operations during the review period. . The interbank call and OBB rates , which
opened at 16.77 and 16.40 per cent on September 19, 2012, closed at 12.03 and
11.70 per cent, respectively, on October 30, 2012. The average interbank call
and OBB rates for the period were 11.68 and 11.38 per cent, respectively.
The foregoing notwithstanding, the Committee was concerned that the
moderation in money market rates was o nly beneficial to prime customers, who
enjoyed a fair degree of reduction in rates on their loan facilities. The average
prime lending rate declined from 16.96 per cent in July to 16.48 per cent in
October. The average maximum lending rate, however, increased from 23.45 to
24.65 per cent during the period while the weighted average savings and term
deposit rate stabilized at 5.30 per cent during the period. The Committee,
therefore enjoined the Bank to fast track the financial inclusion strateg y to
ensure the effectiveness of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy with
a view to improving the financial intermediation process , and reducing the high
spread between deposit and lending rates in the banking industry.
The Committee observed that the r ally in the Nigerian capital market continued
as equities market indicators trended upward in the review period. The All -Share
Index (ASI) increased by 22.37 per cent from 21,599.57 to 26,430.92 between
June, 29 and October 31, 2012. Market Capitalization (MC) also increased , by
22.15 per cent , from N6.90 trillion to N8.42 trillion during the same period. The
positive performance of the ASI and MC were due to strong investor confidence
following improved second quarter financial performance of blue -chip
companies, as well as excellent results from a reinvigorated banking industry.
External Sector Developments
At the Whole sale Dutch Auction System (wDAS), the exchange rate during the
review period opened at N157.36/US$ on August 30, 2012 and closed at
N157.30/US$ on October 31, 2012, representing an appreciation of N0.06k or 0.04
per cent. The average wDAS exchange rate during the period was
N157.33/US$. At the BDC segment of the foreign exchange market, the selling
rate opened at N161.00/US$ on August 30 , 2012 and closed at N159.00/US$ on
October 31, 2012, representing an appreciation of N2.00k or 1.24 per cent for
the period. At the interbank segment, the selling rate opened at N158.10/US$ on
August 30, 2012 and closed at N157.06/US$ on October 31, 2012, representing
an appreciation of N1.04k or 0.66 per cent. The appreciation recorded in all
segments of the market could be traced to the combined effects of tight
monetary conditions, improved supply of foreign exchange to the market by oil
companies; increased inflows from portfolio investors and the policy that barred
the DMBs from accessing the CBN Lending window (SLF and Repo) and wDAS
simultaneously.
The Committee noted with satisfaction the premia between the rates at the
wDAS and the interbank and between the wDAS and the BDCs narrowed
towards the end of the review pe riod, from N0.74/US$ and N3.64/ US$ to
N0.03/US$ and N1.68/ US$, respectively, suggesting the need to sustain and
further complement existing measures to discourage speculative activities in the
foreign exchange market. In general , the Committee noted that the decisions
taken at the previous MPC meetings were yielding the desired results.
The Committee expressed satisfaction with the significant accretion to external
reserves which stood at US$ 45.68 billion as at November 15, 2012, representing
an increase of US$ 10.27 billion or about 29.00 per cent from the level of
US$35.41 billion at end -June 2012. External reserves had increased by US$ 13.04
billion or 39.95 per cent over the Decembe r 2011 level of US$ 32.64 billion. The
increase in the foreign reserves level was driven mainly by proceeds from crude
oil and gas sales and crude oil -related taxes, as well as reduced funding of the
wDAS due to increase inflow of foreign direct investment . The foreign reserves
level could finance over 10 months of imports. The Committee urged the Central
Bank to continue to monitor th e inflow and destination of FDIs and remittances
conscious of the risks to financial stability of a rapid outflow of hot money.
The Committee’s Considerations
The Committee noted that developments in the global economy characterized
by general uncertainty on the back of the deceleration in global growth
sustained by the fragile financial conditions, weakening labor and housin g
markets and deteriorating public and private balance sheets across ad vanced
and emerging economies, have implications for the domestic economy and ,
therefore, demand careful consideration in arriving at an appropriate decision
of monetary policy. The uncertainty surrounding the resolution of the fiscal cliff in
the US and the downside risk created by Hurricane Sandy on US output in Q4 are
also important factors to consider . The Committee noted that if the fiscal cliff
was not resolved quickly, it w ould ne gatively impact the already ballooning
deficits and subsequently tip the economy into a recession with downside risks
to oil price developments. The Committee noted that the lack of clear direction
for the resolution of the Euro area crises will continue to signal a likely recession in
the area in the near term. Developments in the domestic economy in the past
three months highlight some new pressure points to macroeconomic stability.
The Committee was of the view that despite the high interest rates, addit ional
shocks to the economy emanating from the devastating flood s, imported
inflation and the upward adjustment in electricity tariffs continue to stoke
inflationary pressure. The Committee noted the conflicting price signals coming
from the latest inflation numbers from the National Bureau of Statistics, with
headline and food inflation trending upwards, while core inflation rate
continued to moderate for the fourth consecutive month. This according to the
Committee has created uncertainty as to the appropriate policy stance at this
time. However, since the factors underpinning the inflationary pressures were
mainly s tructural, a monetary response may not be appropriate at this time.
Furthermore, the Committee observed that while there were compelling
arguments for monetary easing at this time based on the continuous
moderation of core inflation, slowdown in GDP growth and evidence of fiscal
prudence, the short-term gains may not be sufficiently adequate to overturn the
long term implications of sending a wrong signal that the tightening cycle was
permanently over.
With regard to the balance sheet of the Federal Government, the Committee
was of the view th at it has become imperative to shift away from looking at the
size of the deficit and borrowing alone, to emphasizing the quality of
expenditure and decisions on the allocation of resources. The Committee
commended the fiscal authorities for keeping the fiscal deficit firmly in line with
the 2012 budget and improving the revenue profile of the Federal Gov ernment
by plugging several of the fiscal leakages. It called on the Government to
significantly increase capital spending and increase its focus on improving on
governance and transparency in the public service . On the oil price
benchmark used in the 20 13 budget, the M PC reaffirmed its support for the
maintaining the US$75/barrel proposed by the fiscal authorities and noted that
this has become even more critical in light of evidence that output projections
may have been overly optimistic. In this regar d, the Committee called on the
Government and the National Assembly going forward, to borrow from the
Chilean experience with regard to the setting of the parameters for the
preparation of the National Budget to avoid the perennial rancor between the
Executive and the Legislature on benchmark oil price. Specifically, the
Committee called for the setting up of an independent legal structure that will
set the benchmark output and price underpinned by the long term trajectory of
output and price , by independe nt experts who are shielded from political
interference and interests.
In view of these developments, the Committee was faced with three choices:
(i) An increase in rates in response to the up tick in headline and food
inflation;
(ii) A reduction in rates in view o f declining core inflation and GDP
growth;
(iii) Retaining current monetary policy stance in view of conflicting
price signals and global uncertainties;
The Committee’s Decisions
The Committee considered and rejected option 1 as being potentially pro -
cyclical considering the structural nature of recent inflationary pressures. While
acknowledging the merit of the arguments in favour of option 2, it was also
rejected as likely to send wrong signals of a premature termination of an
appropriately tight monetary stance.
The Committee therefore, decided by a unanimous vote to maintain the current
policy stance i.e. to retain the MPR at 12 per cent with a corridor of +/ - 200 basis
points around the midpoint; and retain the CRR at 12.0 per cent and t he
Liquidity Ratio at 30 per cent.
Thank you.
Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, CON
Governor
20th November, 2012