NBP MPC Press Release - 2025-04-01
Central bank: nbp | Type: decision | Date: 2025-04-01

Warsaw, 2 April 2025
Information from the meeting of the Monetary Policy Council
held on 1-2 April 2025
The Council decided to keep the NBP interest rates unchanged:
▪ reference rate at 5.75%;
▪ lombard rate at 6.25%;
▪ deposit rate at 5.25%;
▪ rediscount rate at 5.80%;
▪ discount rate at 5.85%.
Incoming data signal that the annual GDP growth in the euro area in 2025 Q1 was
probably similar as in 2024 Q4. At the same time, inflation in this economy declined
slightly and runs close to the central bank’s target, whereas core inflation is still elevated.
Meanwhile, the United States saw signs of some weakening of economic conditions ,
amidst inflation remaining somewhat above the central bank ’s target. The outlook for
economic activity and inflation around the world is fraught with uncertainty , which is
related to, among others, changes in trade policies.
In Poland, available data indicate that economic activity growth in 2025 Q1 was probably
lower than expected and close to the 2024 Q4 figure. In February annual growth rates of
retail sales and of industrial output were negative, while growth of construction and
assembly production declined. In the labour market unemployment remains low and the
number of working persons continues to be high, although employment in the enterprise
sector in February 2025 was lower than a year earlier. Wage growth is still running at the
high level, but data from the enterprise sector point to lowering of wage growth.
Considering revised Statistics Poland data on consum er prices growth rates at the
beginning of 2025 together with flash estimate for March 2025, annual CPI inflation in 2025
Q1 was lower than expected and stood at 4.9%. Elevated level of inflation results mainly
from the implemented increases in the administered energy prices – in particular partial
unfreezing of energy carriers prices from July 2024 and the increase in natural gas
distribution tariffs from January 2025 – as well as from higher annual growth in prices of
food and non -alcoholic beverages . At the same time , considering the Statistics Poland
data, it can be estimated that inflation net of food and energy prices decreased.
In the Council’s assessment , in the coming months inflation will remain above the NBP
inflation target, driven by the effects of the already introduced increases in energy prices,
as well as by the rises in excise duties and administered services prices. Core inflation will
probably also continue to be elevated. In the second half of 2025 – in line with the present
legal arrangements and accounting for the current level of tariffs for electricity – there will
be a further rise in regulated energy prices.
At the same time, incoming information, including lower than expected Statistics Poland
data on inflation in the first months of 2025, signal that inflation in subsequent quarters
may be lower than previously expected. The impact of elevated inflation on inflation
expectations and wage pressure – especially amid a rising demand and low
unemployment – remains an uncertainty factor. Inflation developments over the medium
term will be affected by the further fiscal and regulatory policy measures. Uncertainty
stems also from inflation developments abroad, following, among others, from changes in
trade policies of major economies.
Against this background, the Council decided to keep the NBP interest rates unchanged.
The Council judges that the current level of the NBP interest rates is conducive to meeting
the NBP inflation target in the medium term.
Further decisions of the Council will depend on incoming information regarding
prospects for inflation and economic activity.
NBP will continue to take all necessary actions in order to ensure macroeconomic and
financial stability, including above all to bring inflation down sustainably to the NBP
inflation target in the medium term. NBP may intervene in the foreign exchange market.