SARB MPC Statement - November 2015
Central bank: sarb | Type: statement | Date: 2015-11-19

19 November 2015
STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE
Since the previous meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), the inflation
forecast has remained relatively unchanged but the risks to the forecast have
increased. The key risks are a marked depreciation of the rand; worsening drought
conditions and their likely impact on food prices ; and the possib ility of additional
electricity tariff adjustments. At the same time the economy remains weak despite an
improved performance in the manufacturing sector, but both the mining and
agricultural sectors appear to have contracted further in the third quarter.
Although global financial markets have stabilised somewhat since the previous
meeting, the outlook for emerging markets in particular remains challenging. T he US
Fed is likely to raise its policy rate in December, and further volatility in financial
markets can be expected in the lead-up to this.
The year-on-year inflation rate as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) for all
urban areas measured 4,7 per cent in October, following two consecutive months at
4,6 per cent . Food and non -alcoholic beverages inflation surprised again on the
MPC Statement November 19th, 2015 Page 2
downside at 4,8 per cent, with a contribution of 0,7 percentage points to the overall
CPI outcome. Services price inflation remained unchanged at 5,6 per cent, while
goods price inflation in creased to 3,7 per cent from 3,6 per cent previously. The
Bank’s measure of core inflation, which excludes food, fuel and electricity, measured
5,2 per cent, down from 5,3 per cent in the previous two months.
Producer price inflation for final manufactured goods increased from 3,4 per cent in
August to 3,6 per cent in September . The main pressure came from the category of
food, beverages and tobacco products which contributed 2,0 percentage points to
the outcome. Food and agricultural crop price developments are expected to sustain
the upward trend in PPI in the coming months.
The latest inflation forecast of the Bank shows a slight near-term improvement, while
the medium-term forecast is marginally higher . Inflation is now expected to averag e
4,6 per cent in 2015, and 6,0 per cent and 5,8 per cent in the next two years. T he
anticipated breach of the upper end of the target range in the first quarter of 2016 is
now expected to average 6,4 per cent, compared with 6,7 per cent previously. The
trajectory for the rest of the year is also slightly lower than previously forecast, with
the temporary breach in the fourth quarter of 6,1 per cent . The forecast for 2017
follows a slow downward trend, with inflation still expected to measure 5,7 per cent in
the final quarter. The changes in the forecast are due to a lower starting point for the
forecast, lower international oil price assumptions , and an adjustment to fees for
higher education which are more or less offset by a more depreciated starting point
for the real effective exchange rate.
MPC Statement November 19th, 2015 Page 3
The forecast for core inflation is marginally higher , with an expected average of 5,5
per cent in 2016, and 5,4 per cen t in 2017, mainly due to the more depreciated
exchange rate assumption.
The BER inflation expectations survey is only due for release in December. The
median inflation forecast of analysts polled in the latest Reuters Econometer survey
is similar to that of the Bank, and also declined marginally since the previous survey.
The breakeven inflation rates, while having improved since the previous meeting ,
remain above the upper end of the target range.
Divergent global developments continue to create a challenging environment for
monetary policy. Although t he US recovery appears to be sustained with further
improvements in the labour m arket, the strong dollar poses downside ris ks to both
growth and inflation . The UK economy also remains on its recov ery path. By
contrast, the recovery in the euro area is much weaker , although the outlook is more
favourable than it was earlier in the year. The Japanese economy has contracted for
two consecutive quarters, with positive, but slow growth expected in the coming
quarters.
The Chinese economy shows signs of stabilising , aided by policy stimulus, but the
medium-term outlook remains a concern . There is still some uncertainty regarding
the extent to which services output and consumption has compensated for the
decline in industrial output and investment. A tail-risk of a hard landing remains,
which would have a significant impact on countries with direct trade linkages ,
particularly those in Asia, as well as on commodity prices.
Russia and Brazil remain in recession, while the strong performance of the Indian
economy has been sustained following a number of structural reforms . The outlook
MPC Statement November 19th, 2015 Page 4
for sub -Saharan Africa, while still positive, has deteriora ted in the wake of lower
commodity prices, and f urther weakening could create greater headwinds for South
African manufactured exports to this region.
Global inflation trends are also benign, with concerns about deflation abating in most
advanced economies. Despite significant currency depreciations in commodity -
producing economies in particular, inflation pressures have generally been
surprisingly contained, with a few exceptions. Emerging markets have had differing
experiences: a number of countr ies in Latin America , particularly commodity
producers, have tightened policy in recent months in response to incipient
inflationary pressures, while others with low inflation , particularly in Asia, have
loosened policy further.
In the advanced economies, monetary policy diverge nce is expected to continue.
Monetary policy is set to remain accommodative in the euro area and Japan, with
possible further quantitative easing, against a backdrop of slow growth and benign
inflation pressures. In the US, inflation and labour market dynamics, as well as Fed
communication, suggest that in the absence of any major surprises or shocks , an
increase in the policy rate can be expected in December. Market expectations are for
monetary policy tightening in the UK to commence sometime in the second half of
2016, later than previously expected.
Although volatility in global asset markets has moderated amid improving risk
sentiment, emerging market foreign exchange markets have been relatively volatile
and vulnerable to capital outflows. In the past three months South Africa has also
seen net portfolio outflows: since the end of August, according to the JSE data, non-
MPC Statement November 19th, 2015 Page 5
resident sales of equities amounted to R25,9 billion, while net bond sales amounted
to R5,9 billion.
The rand exchange rate has been particularly volatile, even compared to its peers ,
as domestic factors also impacted on the currency . Since the previous meeting of
the MPC, the rand has appreciated by about 1,0 per cent against the euro but has
depreciated by around 3,0 per cent against the dollar, and by 1,5 per cent on a
trade-weighted basis. As before, the extent to which Fed tightening has been priced
into the e xchange rate remains uncertain. Nevertheless, a high degree of volatility
and overshooting of the exchange rate may be expected in the lead-up to, and in the
immediate aftermath of the start of the US interest rate cycle. Fed communication of
future moves will be key . To date, the indications are that a moderate policy hiking
cycle will be pursued.
The d omestic economic growth prospects remain subdued amid weak business
confidence, but a further contraction in the third quarter is not expected. The Bank’s
forecast for GDP growth has been revised down marginally for 2015 and 2016 to 1,4
per cent and 1 ,5 per cent, but remains unchanged at 2,1 per cent for 2017. The
estimate of short -term potential output remains unchanged at 1,8 per cent for this
year, rising to 2,1 per cent in 2017. The Bank’s composite leading business cycle
indicator declined further in August, consistent with the fragile outlook.
The manufacturing sector recovered somewhat in the third quarter, mainly due to a
surprisingly strong performance in September , and is expected to have contributed
positively to GDP growth. However , the Barclays PMI declined further in October,
and has been below the neutral level of 50 for three consecutive months, suggesting
a constrained outlook for the sector . The mining sector is expected to sub tract from
MPC Statement November 19th, 2015 Page 6
GDP growth following a further contraction in the third quarter , while the continuing
drought points to a third successive quarterly contraction for the agricultural sector .
The outlook for the construction sector is constrained following significant declines in
new building plans passed, and reflected in a 9 point drop in the FNB/BER Building
Confidence Index.
Against this backdrop, f ormal sector employment trends remain disappointing.
According to the Quarterly Employment Statistics survey of Statistics South Africa,
employment in the formal non-agricultural sector declined in the second quarter of
2015, as the private sector continued to shed jobs. Although the Quarterly Labour
Force Survey indicates an increase in the number of persons emp loyed in the third
quarter, the number of unemployed persons rose sharply in the quarter as t he
number of new entrants increased. Consequently, the official unemployment rate
increased to 25,5 per cent in the third quarter.
There are minimal demand side pressures i n the economy, with consumption
expenditure by households continuing to be inhibited inter alia by low consumer
confidence, declining disposable income growth and slow employment growth . The
latest retail trade sales data suggest that household expenditure may have lost
further momentum in the third quarter . Durable goods sales remain under pressure,
as indicated in the intensification of the downward trend in motor vehicle sales in
recent months.
Consumption expenditure is also constrained by the continue d slow growth in credit
extension to households by banks. Unsecured lending remains subdued, and is
likely to be impacted further by the recently announced caps on interest rates by the
DTI, while the decline in growth in instalment sale credit and leasing finance is
MPC Statement November 19th, 2015 Page 7
indicative of the softer motor vehicle sales. Credit extension to corporates remains
robust, particularly commercial mortgage finance, which reflects in part a switch
away from funding in the bond market by property funds.
The recent Medium -Term Budget P olicy Statement signalled a continued
commitment to fiscal consolidation by government, although at a slower pace. Mos t
of the expanded deficit is attributable to lower expected tax revenues in response to
the weaker growth outlook.
Trends in wage growth remain a concern, and contribute to the persistence of
inflation at elevated levels . Year-on-year growth in salaries a nd wages per worker
accelerated to 8,7 per cent in second quarter of 2015, and after adjusting for labour
productivity increases, total unit labour costs increased from 4,3 per cent to 5, 1 per
cent. By contrast , the average wage settlement rate in collective bargaining
agreements reco rded by Andrew Levy Employment P ublications recorded a
moderation to 7,7 per cent in the f irst three quarters of the year, compared with 8,1
per cent in 2014.
Apart from the exchange rate, the mai n upside risks to inflation come from possible
electricity tariff and food price increases. Eskom ’s Regulatory Clearing Account
(RCA) application to Nersa to claw back excess expenditure of R22,8 billion is likely
to lead to a further tariff increase, although the quantum and timing is uncertain. This
is in addition to the 12,2 per cent tariff increase already built into the inflation forecast
for next year . No provision is made for the RCA application in the forecast at this
stage, but it is regarded as an upside risk.
A higher food price trajectory has been incorporated in the forecast for some time,
but food price inflation has surprised on the downside in recent months, despite
MPC Statement November 19th, 2015 Page 8
sharp increases in maize and cereals prices earlier in the year. However, the
increased intensity of the drought which has led to downward revisions of the
domestic maize crop estimate, as well as incipient pressures evident in both the PPI
and CPI, suggest that an acceleration in food price inflation is likely , adding to the
upside risk to the inflation outlook.
By contrast, international oil price developments are expected to remain benign with
current spot prices below US$45 per barrel , somewhat lower than those assumed
over the forecast period . Although petrol prices have contributed to a succession of
downside inflation surprises in recent months, the beneficial impact of lower
international oil prices on domest ic petrol prices has been offset to some extent by
the depreciation of the rand . The latest data suggest that, should current trends
continue, a small drop in the petrol pr ice can be expected next month despite the
further depreciation of the rand.
Although the inflation forecast is relatively unchanged since the previous meeting,
the upside risks to the inflation outlook are more pronounced. As noted, these risks
relate to the persistent exchange rate depreciation, electricity tariffs and food prices,
and are assessed to outweigh possible downside risks from lower international oil
prices and subdued exchange rate pass -through. While these factors cannot be
dealt with directly through monetary policy, the concern of the Committee is that
failure to act could cause inflation expectations to become unanchored and generate
second-round effects and more generalised inflation. Although core inflation has
remained steady and inflation expectations to date have been relatively anchored,
they remain at uncomfortably elevated levels.
MPC Statement November 19th, 2015 Page 9
The general approach of the MPC is to attempt to see through exogenous shocks
and react to second -round effects. However, shocks of a persistent nature, for
example extended periods of currency depreciation or drought, or multi -year
increases in electricity prices make it more difficult to disentangle these first and
second round effects.
In the absence of demand pressures, the MPC had to decide whether to act now or
later. On the one hand, given the relative stability in the underlying of core inflation,
delaying the adjustment could give the MPC room to re -assess these unfolding
developments at the next meeting, and avoid possible additional headwinds to the
weak growth outlook. On the other hand, delaying the adjustment further could lead
to second-round effects and require an even stronger monetary policy response in
the future, with more severe consequences for short-term growth.
Complicating the decision was the deterior ating economic growth outlook. Although
the change to the growth forecast was marginal, the risks to the outlook, which were
more or less balanced at the previous meeting, are now assessed to be on the
downside.
Against this difficult backdrop, the MPC de cided to increase the repurchase rate by
25 basis points to 6,25 per cent per annum effective from 20 November 2015. Four
members preferred an increase, while two members favoured an unchanged stance.
Despite the increase, the MPC still views the monetary policy stance to be
accommodative. The continuing challenge is for monetary policy to achieve a fine
balance between achieving our core mandate of price stability and not undermining
short-term growth unduly. Monetary policy actions will continue to focus on
anchoring inflation within the target range while remaining sensitive, to the extent
possible, to the fragile state of the economy. As before, any future moves will
therefore be highly data dependent.
Lesetja Kganyago
GOVERNOR
Contact person:
Candice Jeffreys
+27 12 313 4209
Candice.Jeffreys@resbank.co.za