CBR Quarterly Inflation Review - Q1 2007
Central bank: cbr | Type: quarterly_review | Date: 2007-03-31

THE CENTRAL BANK
OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
(BANK OF RUSSIA)
Quarterly
Inflation
Review
2007 Q1
Research and Information Department
Introduction........................................................... 1
Inflation Dynamics ................................................... 2
Monetary Conditions .............................................. 12
Statistical Addendum ............................................. 20
The electronic version of Quarterly Inflation Review is available on the Bank of Russia's website :

2007 Q1
Inflation Dynamics
Introduction
Consumer price growth continued to slow
down in January-March 2007. Core inflation de-
creased and growth in the prices of goods and
services not included in the calculation of the core
consumer price index was slower than last year.
Consumer prices grew 3.4% in 2007 Q1 as against
5% in 2006 Q1. The slower consumer price growth
was largely attributable to the slowing of growth
in food prices. Food prices, excluding vegetable
and fruit prices, increased 1.7% in January-March
2007 (the lowest figure for this group of prod-
ucts) while vegetable and fruit prices grew 11.5%
or more than two times slower than in 2005-2006.
As foreign currency supply exceeded de-
mand, the Bank of Russia continued to carry out
interventions on the domestic foreign exchange
market to curb the ruble’s appreciation. Monetary
authorities took measures to absorb money sup-
ply to ease inflationary pressure. Operations with
Bank of Russia bonds (OBR) and deposit opera-
tions were the Central Bank’s major liquidity
sterilisation instruments. At the same time, the
Bank of Russia continued to raise interest rates to
absorb excess liquidity. A large part of aggregate
liquidity, which resulted from significant growth
in international reserves, was absorbed by the
Russian Government’s Stabilisation Fund (herein-
after the Stabilisation Fund).
Despite the measures to absorb excess li-
quidity, monetary aggregates grew faster than
projected. The growth rate of money supply (M2
aggregate) exceeded an annualised 40% from the
second half of 2006 and equalled 52.6% as of
April 1, 2007, while the broad monetary base grew
54.7%. The trend towards accelerated annualised
growth in M2, which had been observed since
2005 Q2, prevailed in January-March 2007.
Stronger demand for the national currency
resulting from high economic growth rates, the
economy’s de-dollarisation and an increase in the
savings component of money supply along with a
reduced share of cash in the structure of ruble
supply help ease the inflationary consequences of
money supply growth.
2007 Q1
Consumer price inflation (%)
Growth (March 2007
on December 2006)
Growth (March 2006
on December 2005)
Prices of goods and services, total 3.4 5.0 Retardation by 1.5 times
of which:
- food prices 2.6 6.2 Retardation by 2.4 times
- food prices, excluding vegetable and fruit prices 1.7 3.9 Retardation by 2.3 times
- non-food prices 1.1 1.3 Retardation by 1.2 times
- prices of paid services provided to households 8.0 8.0
Prices of goods and services included in core inflation calculation 1.7 2.8 Retardation by 1.6 times
Source: Rosstat.
Inflation Dynamics
Consumer Prices
According to the Federal State Statistics Ser-
vice (Rosstat), consumer prices rose 3.4% in Janu-
ary-March 2007 as against 5.0% in the same pe-
riod of 2006. Consumer prices grew 7.4% in
March 2007 and 7.7% in 2007 Q1, year on year.
Core inflation equalled 1.7% in 2007 Q1 as
against 2.8% in 2006 Q1 and 6.7% in March 2007
as compared with March 2006.
Growth in the prices of goods and services
included in the calculation of the core consumer
price index in 2007 Q1 accounted for an estimated
1.3 percentage points, or 38.3%, of overall con-
sumer price growth as against 2.1 percentage
points, or 42.4%, in January-March 2006.
Growth in food prices slowed down consid-
erably and contributed to lower inflation. Food
prices grew 2.6% in 2007 Q1 as against 6.2% in
2006 Q1.
Food prices, excluding vegetable and
fruit prices, grew 1.7% in January-March 2007 as
against 3.9% in January-March 2006, and this
growth accounted for an estimated 0.6 percent-
age points, or 17.8%, of overall consumer price
growth in 2007 Q1 as against 1.5 percentage
points, or 30.1%, in 2006 Q1.
2007 Q1
Inflation Dynamics
Food price inflation (%)
Growth (March 2007
on December 2006)
Growth (March 2006
on December 2005)
Food products 2.6 6.2 Retardation by 2.4 times
Bread and bakery products 2.2 4.6 Retardation by 2.1 times
Cereals and legumes 4.5 5.7 Retardation by 1.3 times
Pasta 1.8 1.9 Retardation by 1.1 times
Meat and poultry 0.9 0.9
Fish and seafood 3.3 3.3
Milk and dairy products 1.9 3.4 Retardation by 1.8 times
Butter 1.9 2.9 Retardation by 1.5 times
Sunflower oil 0.1 -0.2
Granulated sugar -4.9 48.8
Fruit and vegetables 11.2 29.3 Retardation by 2.6 times
Alcoholic beverages 2.0 2.2 Retardation by 1.1 times
Source: Rosstat.
The rates of growth in the prices of basic
food products in January-March 2007 did not ex-
ceed the level registered in the first quarter of
2006. Granulated sugar prices continued to go
down, registering a 4.9% fall in 2007 Q1. Granu-
lated sugar prices declined 22.8% from Septem-
ber 2006 to March 2007, following a decrease in
raw sugar prices on world markets. Changes in
granulated sugar prices accounted for an esti-
mated 0.6 percentage points of consumer price
growth in 2006 Q1 whereas this contribution was
negative and insignificant in 2007 Q1.
Vegetable and fruit prices rose 11.2% in
January-March 2007 as against 29.3% in January-
March 2006. The increase in vegetable and fruit
prices in 2007 Q1 was below the average growth
figure in January-March 2001-2006. Growth in
vegetable and fruit prices in 2007 Q1 accounted
for an estimated 0.4 percentage points of the
general rate of inflation (12.5% of overall con-
sumer price growth). In 2006 Q1, growth in veg-
etable and fruit prices accounted for 1.2 percent-
age points, or 23.2%, of overall consumer price
growth.
As in the previous four years, non-food
prices grew slower than the prices of other basic
consumer goods and services. Non-food prices
increased 1.1% in 2007 Q1 as against 1.3% in 2006
Q1.
Petrol prices were observed to decline from
October 2006. They dropped 0.9% in 2007 Q1
(they increased 1.9% in 2006 Q1).
As was the case in January-March 2006, the
prices of paid services provided to households
grew 8.0% in January-March 2007 and accounted
for an estimated 2.0 percentage points, or 58.1%,
of overall consumer price growth (1.9 percentage
points or 37.6% of the general rate of inflation in
2006 Q1).
Housing and utility prices rose 12.7% in 2007
Q1 as against 15.6% in the same period last year.
Growth in communication fees accelerated to
10.4% in January-March 2007 from 0.5% in Janu-
ary-March 2006 as urban fixed-lined telephone
service rates increased considerably in February.
Regulated prices of paid services grew by an esti-
mated 10.6% in 2007 Q1 or 0.7 percentage points
faster than in the same period last year.
Growth in the prices of paid services pro-
vided to the public in 2007 Q1 was 6.1 percentage
points faster than growth in the prices of goods
(3.9 percentage points faster in 2006 Q1).
According to Rosstat data, consumer price
growth in all federal districts in January-March
2007 was slower than in the same period last year.
Estimates show that the difference between
various Russian territories and regions in terms of
the price of the fixed set of goods and services
used by the Federal State Statistics Service for in-
terregional comparisons of the purchasing power
of the population decreased in January-March
2007. The regional difference rati
o1 in that period
decreased to 43.3% from 44.0% in 2006 Q1.
1 The regional difference ratio is calculated by the Bank of Russia as the difference between the price of a fixed set of goods and
services in the most expensive and the cheapest regions relative to the national value of the same set.
2007 Q1
The rates of growth in non-food prices and
food prices, excluding vegetable and fruit prices,
were roughly the same in all federal districts in the
period under review. The rates of growth in veg-
etable and fruit prices differed considerably by
region in 2007 Q1. In the Central Federal District,
for instance, vegetable and fruit prices increased
13.4%, whereas in the Far Eastern Federal District
they rose 7.4%.
Growth in the prices of paid services pro-
vided to the public slowed down in January-March
2007 as compared with the same period of 2006,
except for the North-Western, Southern and
Volga Federal Districts.
According to data provided by the Institute
for the Economy in Transition, the inflation expec-
tations of managers of the leading industrial en-
terprises in early 2007 roughly corresponded to the
2006 level. Growth in selling prices was predicted
by 33-40% of respondents in January-February
2007 as against 33-36% in January-February
2006.
Housing prices
Housing prices have been growing faster
than consumer prices in the past few years. The
prices of new homes grew 6.5% in 2007 Q1 rela-
tive to 2006 Q4 2 (8.6% in the same period last
year) while the prices of existing housing went up
7.0% (8.4%).
Housing prices continue to grow rapidly,
despite the high rates of growth in the construc-
tion of new housing, which equalled 151.1% in
2007 Q1 as compared with the same period last
year. The steady growth in household incomes and
the development of mortgage lending help house-
holds finance a noticeable share of housing con-
struction (49.1% in 2007 Q1).
Producer prices
Producer prices rose 1.8% in January-
March 2007 as against 6.0% in January-March
2006. Producer prices grew slower in 2007 Q1 as
prices in the mining sector fell 2.8%. Fuel and en-
ergy producer prices declined 3.4% over this pe-
riod (they grew 12.0% in 2006 Q1) as a result of
lower world oil prices in late 2006 and January
2007. Metallic ore producer prices slipped 0.1%
(they grew 5.0% in 2006 Q1). The contribution of
producer prices in the mining sector to overall pro-
ducer price growth was negative and equalled an
estimated -0.6 percentage points in January-
March 2007 as against 2.4 percentage points, or
40%, in the same period last year.
Producer prices in the manufacturing sec-
tor increased 0.9% in 2007 Q1 as against 3.5% in
2006 Q1.
In the manufacturing industries whose out-
put goes to the consumer goods market, price
growth accelerated in 2007 Q1 year on year in tex-
tile and clothing production (from 0.6% to 2.6%).
At the same time, price growth slowed down in
2 As of the end of period.
2007 Q1
Inflation Dynamics
the production of foodstuffs, including bever-
ages, tobacco products, and leather, leather goods
and footwear.
According to estimates, growth in producer
prices in industries whose output goes directly to
the consumer goods market in January-March
2007 accounted for 0.7 percentage points of core
inflation (1.2 percentage points in the same pe-
riod of 2006).
Prices in the production, transmission and
distribution of electricity rose 13.6% in 2007 Q1 as
against 9.2% in the same period last year.
Freight transportation charges increased
11.1% in the first three months of the year as
against 9.8% in January-March 2006. Railway
fares were up 7.8% in the period under review
(8.9% in January-March 2006).
Communication fees for corporate enti-
ties edged up 4.0% in January-March 2007 (they
dropped 0.4% in the same period last year).
Prices in the construction sector rose 2.8%
in 2007 Q1 as against 1.9% in the same period last
year.
Agricultural producer prices increased
3.1% in January-March 2007 (3.2% in January-
March 2006) largely due to growth in producer
prices in the crop-growing sector, which rose 6.7%
(7.6% in the same period last year). The most sig-
nificant growth in 2007 Q1 was registered in veg-
etable prices, which went up 23.6% as against
25.0% in 2006 Q1.
The prices of livestock products increased
0.8% in January-March 2007 (0.6% in January-
March 2006). Meat and poultry prices declined
0.5% (1.0% in January-March 2006).
Inflation in some countries3
US inflation stood at 1.8% in March 2007 compared
with December 2006 (it equalled 1.5% in March 2006 on
December 2005). Core inflatio
n4 made the biggest contribu-
tion to the change of the general level of consumer prices in
3 According to data provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics at the US Department of Labor, the Statistical Office of the Euro-
pean Communities (Eurostat), the National Statistics Bureau of China and national statistical offices of other countries. The
calculations of contributions by some factors to US and eurozone inflation were made by the Bank of Russia.
4 Growth in the prices of goods and services included in the consumer goods basket, excluding foodstuffs and energy products.
2007 Q1
the United States in the period under review by contributing
1.0 percentage point. Energy and food prices accounted for
0.6 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively, of overall con-
sumer price growth in the United States. At the same time,
the accelerated growth of energy and food prices in 2007 Q1
as compared with 2006 Q1 made the biggest contribution to
the general level of inflation. Energy prices increased 6.3% in
January-March 2007 (they went up 4.8% in January-March
2006) as the prices of energy products used for household
nee
ds5 rose from 0.1% to 2.0% and the prices of motor fuel
grew from 9.9% to 10.6%. Food prices went up 1.7% in March
2007 on December 2006 (they rose 0.6% in March 2006 on
December 2005). The accelerated food price growth was at-
tributable to growth in fruit and vegetable prices and meat
and dairy product prices.
US core inflation stood at 1.3% in January-March 2007
(1.4% in the same period last year). US core inflation de-
creased as growth in rent slowed down from 1.9% to 1.7%.
The prices of clothing and footwear grew slower while the
prices of motor vehicles went down. Growth in tuition fees
slowed down. At the same time, health service charges grew
faster.
Eurozone inflation
6 stood at 0.4% in January-March
2007, as was the case in the same period last year. Growth in
energy prices made the biggest contribution to the rise in
eurozone consumer prices (by 0.2 percentage points). Growth
in food prices and core inflation contributed to the increase
in consumer prices equally (by 0.1 percentage points). Growth
in energy prices decelerated from 3.3% in January-March
2006 to 2.2% in January-March 2007. The prices of motor
fuel and lubricants increased 2.4% (3.2% in January-March
2006) and the prices of energy products used for household
needs went up 2.0% (3.4%). Growth in food prices, includ-
ing alcoholic beverages and tobacco products, decelerated
from 1.0% in January-March 2006 to 0.5% in January-March
2007 due to the slowing of growth in fruit and vegetable
prices.
Eurozone core inflatio
n7 sto od at 0.2% in 2007 Q1
(eurozone core inflation was negative at 0.1% in the same
period last year). Growth in the prices of hotel and restau-
rant services made the biggest contribution to core inflation.
The continued fall in the prices of some goods and services
related to leisure time and individual creativity (including au-
dio and video equipment and personal computers) had a posi-
tive effect on core inflation.
Terms of trade
In January-March 2007, the situation on
world commodity markets was favourable for
Russian exporters. The prices of major Russian
export commoditie
s8 were on average slightly
higher than in the same period last year. Non-en-
ergy prices went up 16.1% while energy prices
went down 2.5% in 2007 Q1.
World oil prices declined in October-Decem-
ber 2006 and January 2007 due to slower growth
in demand as a result of mild weather, the in-
creased supply of oil by non-OPEC countries on
world markets and large US commercial crude in-
ventories. The prices of oil and petroleum prod-
ucts started to grow again in February amid in-
creased tensions between Iran and the West over
5 Fuel oil, boiler fuel, coal, household gas and electricity.
6 Data provided by Eurostat on 13 eurozone member states, including Slovenia.
7 Growth in the prices of goods and services included in the consumer goods basket, excluding foodstuffs, alcoholic beverages,
tobacco and energy products.
8 Average prices have been calculated on the basis of data provided daily by the following news agencies and exchanges: Reuters
for oil, Petroleum Argus for petroleum products (petrol, diesel fuel and fuel oil) and the London Metal Exchange for non-ferrous
metals (aluminium, copper and nickel). Average monthly prices of natural gas and ferrous metal price indices have been calculat-
ed on the basis of data provided by the World Bank, and average monthly prices of other goods on the basis of data provided by
the IMF.
2007 Q1
Inflation Dynamics
the Iran nuclear programme and the expectations
of seasonal growth in US petrol consumption. The
decision made by OPEC member states at their
March 15 meeting in Vienna to keep oil produc-
tion levels unchanged had no significant effect on
the world oil market. As a result, the price of Urals
crude went down 6.5% in 2007 Q1 year on year to
$54 per barrel on average, according to Bank of
Russia estimates. Changes in petroleum product
prices largely followed oil price dynamics and de-
clined 6.9% on average. The prices of natural gas
in Europe were observed to decline in January-
March 2007 but were 6.8% higher than in the
same period last year.
The world ferrous metal market registered
some growth in January-March 2007. However,
world ferrous metal prices fell 4.8% on average
in 2007 Q1 as compared with 2006 Q1. Aluminium
and copper prices stabilized while nickel prices
continued to grow on the world non-ferrous metal
market in the first three months of 2007. Non-
ferrous metal prices were considerably higher in
2007 Q1 than in the same period last year (50%
higher on average). Aluminium prices were 16%
higher, copper 20% and nickel 180%. The prices
of other Russian export commodities were largely
higher in January-March 2007 than in January-
March 2006.
The prices of Russia’s major food import
demonstrated opposite dynamics on world mar-
kets in January-March 2007: beef prices were vir-
tually unchanged, pork and poultry prices were
observed to grow while sugar and wheat prices
largely went down.
In 2007 Q1, beef prices stayed at the level
registered in late 2006, suggesting stabilisation on
the world beef market, while growth in pork and
poultry prices reflected increased world demand
for these food products. Beef and poultry prices
increased 5% and pork prices went up 10% in
January-March 2007 year on year.
World sugar prices were observed to decline
in 2007 Q1 as sugar output exceeded sugar con-
sumption. A good raw sugar harvest increased
refined sugar output and world sugar stocks. In
February 2007, the International Sugar
Organisation reviewed upward its estimate of
world sugar overproduction in the 2006/2007 sea-
son and raised its estimates of a new harvest, in
particular, in Brazil. According to estimates, a sug-
arcane harvest in the 2007/2008 season can reach
a record amount of 415 million tonnes or 11.8%
more than in the previous season. The expecta-
tions of a good harvest and the forecasts of con-
siderable sugar surpluses on the world market will
bring sugar prices further down. Raw sugar prices
9 Average prices of raw and refined sugar have been calculated on the basis of data provided daily by the London Commodity
Exchange, average monthly prices of beef and wheat on the basis of data provided by the World Bank and pork and poultry on
the basis of data provided by the IMF.
2007 Q1
continued to fall in 2007 Q1 whereas refined sugar
prices slightly increased in February-March 2007.
Year on year, raw and refined sugar prices declined
41% and 23%, respectively, on the world market
in January-March 2007.
According to the International Grains
Council’s forecast published in February 2007,
world wheat demand is expected to exceed sup-
ply in the 2006/2007 season and carryover wheat
inventories will decline by the end of the season,
especially in Argentine, Australia, the European
Union, Canada and the United States, which are
the world’s leading wheat producers. As a result,
world grain prices will continue to be high. US
wheat export prices in 2007 Q1 remained virtually
at the level registered in late 2006. Year on year,
US wheat export prices increased 14% in January-
March 2007.
Growth in import prices exceeded growth
in the prices of exported products and the terms
of Russia’s trade with foreign countrie
s10 deterio-
rated in January-March 2007 as compared with
the same period last year.
Russia’s foreign trade surplus contracted in
2007 Q1 year on year, as imports grew faster than
exports. Russia’s foreign trade surplus fell 21.9%
to $28.4 billion in the period under review (it grew
48.4% to $36.4 billion in January-March 2006).
Foreign trade in some countries11
The trade deficit in the European Union12 grew by 1.3
billion euros in January-February 2007 year on year. However,
growth in the EU trade deficit slowed down sharply in the
first two months of the year as compared with the same pe-
riod last year. The value of the imports of mineral fuel and
lubricants by the EU member states decreased 11.4% in Janu-
ary-February 2007 (it rose 60% in the same period last year).
Russia accounted for more than 25% of the imports of these
commodities by the EU in 2006. The imports of Russian com-
modities by the EU member states in January 2007 slightly
decreased as compared with January 2006. The share of Rus-
sian deliveries in the total value of imports by EU member
states declined from 10.5% in January 2006 to 9.6% in Janu-
ary 2007 while the share of deliveries from China increased
from 14.5% to 16.7%.
The US trade deficit fell by $10.8 billion in January-
February 2007 year on year as a result of slower growth in
the imports of goods and stable growth in exports. The slow-
ing of growth in imports was largely attributable to the lower
value of the imports of crude oil, gas condensate, petroleum
products and natural gas. The deliveries of Russian commodi-
ties to the US market decreased in January-February 2007 as
compared with the same period last year due to reduced de-
liveries of Russia’s two major commodity groups: ferrous and
non-ferrous metals and products made of them, and oil and
petroleum products. The share of Russia in the US import
structure stayed below 1% in the period under review. The
deficit in trade with China accounted for one-third of the US
total trade deficit.
China’s trade surplus amid the accelerated growth in
exports expanded by $23.1 billion (by two times) in 2007 Q1
as compared with 2006 Q1. Russia ranked tenth among
China’s trading partners. The imports of Russian goods by
China grew slower than China’s total imports in January-
March 2007. Growth in the deliveries of Russian goods to the
Republic of Belarus and Ukraine slowed down sharply. The
share of Russian deliveries in the import structure of the Re-
public of Belarus and Ukraine decreased considerably in 2007
Q1 as compared with 2006 Q1. Nevertheless, Russian goods
accounted for more than a half of Belarus’ imports and for a
quarter of Ukraine’s imports. Growth in the imports of Rus-
sian goods by Kazakhstan accelerated but was slower than
total import growth. As a result, the share of Russian deliver-
ies to Kazakhstan declined from 39% to 35%.
10 The ratio between export and import price indices.
11 According to data provided by the Census Bureau of the US Department of Commerce, the Statistical Office of the European
Communities (Eurostat), the Ministry of Commerce of China and national statistical offices of other countries.
12 The union of 27 countries, including Bulgaria and Romania. The data excludes mutual trade between EU member states.
2007 Q1
Inflation Dynamics
Demand
Domestic demand
GDP expanded by 6.7% in 2006 and by an
estimated 7.9% in 2007 Q1 (by 5.0% in 2006 Q1).
Economic growth was driven by strong investment
and consumer demand. However, the contribu-
tion of domestic demand to GDP growth was
lower in 2006 than in 2005, according to esti-
mates. Domestic demand for imports grew faster
than for Russian-made products. The gap be-
tween growth in the demand for imports and do-
mestic products widened due to an accelerated
increase in imports.
Domestic demand expansion due to growth
in revenues in various branches of the economy
and the ruble’s appreciation contributed to the
dynamic growth of investment and consumer im-
ports. According to Bank of Russia estimates, the
import of investment goods needed for economic
development grew faster than consumer goods
imports.
The share of imports in the retail trade struc-
ture increased from 45% in 2005 to 46% in 2006
largely as a result of growth in the imports of non-
food products.
As was the case in the same period last year,
the imports of goods increased in January-March
2007 largely due to growth in import volumes,
which continued to expand rapidly, although
slower than in January-March 2006. The prices of
imported goods were observed to rise in 2007 Q1
whereas in the same period last year they regis-
tered a fall. Growth in import prices created con-
ditions for an increase in prices on the domestic
market. The acceleration of growth in engineer-
ing imports, especially cars, as compared with
January-March 2006, led to a significant increase
in the value of imports.
Imports from member states of the Asia-
Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)
organisation, especially from China, Japan and the
United States, grew faster than total import
s13 in
January-February 2007. At the same time, imports
from the EU countries (including eurozone mem-
ber states), and also from the Commonwealth of
Independent States (CIS), grew slower than total
imports. Imports from Great Britain, Spain, the
Czech Republic and Slovakia registered the biggest
growth among the EU member states while
among the CIS countries the most rapid growth
was registered in imports from Ukraine. Imports
from member states of the Eurasian Economic
Community (EurAsEC) registered the slowest
growth in the period under review.
Household spending on final consumption
increased 11.2% in 2006 as against 12.8% in 2005.
Consumer spending continued to grow rapidly in
2007 Q1, stimulating the expansion of retail trade
turnovers. In the first three months of this year,
retail trade turnover increased 13.6% as against
11.1% in the same period last year while the value
of paid services provided to the public grew 7.9%
(7.3%).
Government expenditures on final con-
sumption increased 4.2% in 2006 as against 2.2%
in 2005. Nevertheless, the restrictive budget ex-
penditure policy and the absorption of excess li-
quidity by the Russian Government’s Stabilisation
Fund contained growth in consumer prices.
Gross capital formation increased 13.4% in
2006 as against 7.2% in 2005. Investment grew
rapidly in January-March 2007. Fixed capital in-
vestment expanded 20.1% in the first three
GDP consumption
(growth as % of corresponding period of previous year)
2004 2005 2006
I II III IV Full
year I II III IV Full
year I II III IV Full
year
GDP 7.0 7.8 7.2 6.6 7.2 5.0 5.6 6.5 8.0 6.4 5.0 7.0 6.8 7.8 6.7
Final consumption 8.2 9.2 10.0 9.2 9.2 6.7 10.3 10.7 10.9 9.7 7.9 9.1 9.6 10.2 9.3
Including:
- households 11.0 12.3 13.2 11.9 12.1 9.5 14.0 13.7 13.6 12.8 9.6 10.7 11.6 12.6 11.2
Gross capital formation 14.7 15.7 8.0 13.7 12.2 16.3 0.4 6.6 8.3 7.2 4.0 16.9 10.4 19.7 13.4
Net exports -4.1 -8.6 -14.9 -23.8 -12.2 -9.9 -8.6 -24.0 -11.1 -12.8 -5.9 -14.3 -22.2 -24.3 -15.8
- exports 11.2 11.7 11.1 13.0 11.8 3.5 5.7 5.1 10.6 6.4 9.0 6.4 6.1 7.4 7.2
- imports 21.5 22.4 20.8 27.4 23.3 14.7 14.5 17.8 19.6 17.0 22.9 21.7 19.1 23.2 21.7
Source: Rosstat.
13 According to data provided by the Federal Customs Service of Russia.
2007 Q1
months of this year as against 5.7% in the same
period last year. In 2006, 60.5% of total fixed
capital investment in large and medium-sized en-
terprises was made in transport, communications,
manufacturing and mining enterprises.
In 2006, as in 2005, more than a third of
fixed capital investment was made in machinery,
equipment and transport vehicles. About one-fifth
of investment went to purchase imported equip-
ment. Large investment in machinery and equip-
ment contributed to technical retooling and was
a major factor of growth in labour productivity and
created conditions for the reduction of price
growth.
Fixed capital investment was largely fi-
nanced with borrowed funds in 2006 (55.7%), of
which budget funds accounted for 19.8%. The
share of bank loans in the structure of investment
financing sources grew by 0.6 percentage points
in 2006 year on year to 8.9%.
Growth in imports considerably exceeded
growth in exports in 2006. As a result, net exports
of goods and services declined 15.8%. According
to estimates, the trend towards the reduction of
net exports continued into 2007 Q1.
Foreign demand
According to estimates based on forecasts
made by the OECD, the European Commission and
the Reuters news agency, economic growth in
January-March 2007 continued in the countries
that were Russia’s main trading partner
s14. GDP
growth in Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, France
and some other countries was estimated to be
higher in January-March 2007 than in the same
period last year.
According to preliminary data, GDP growth
accelerated to 11.1% in 2007 Q1 from 10.4% in
2006 Q1 in China and to 2.8% from 2.4% in Great
Britain. In the United States, GDP growth slowed
down from 3.7% to 2.1% due to a sharp slowdown
in the growth of investment in housing construc-
tion.
The value of the exports of Russian com-
modities increased in January-March 2007 as com-
pared with the same period last year due to growth
in the value of the exports of non-energy prod-
ucts while the value of the exports of energy prod-
ucts decreased. Growth in the export prices of
non-energy goods expanded their export volumes.
The exports of goods increased 6.0% in January-
March 2007 year on year to $71.4 billion (accord-
ing to the balance of payments methodology).
Export volumes grew slower than the prices of
export goods and their growth rates were rela-
tively low.
Exports to APEC countries and EurAsEC
member states, especially to Kazakhstan, grew
faster than total exports in January-February 2007
and increased 23.8% and 23%, respectively
15. The
biggest growth in exports to APEC countries was
registered in exports to Japan, the Republic of
Korea and some other Asian states. The exports
of goods to the European Union declined while
exports to the eurozone countries expanded. The
most significant reduction in exports to Russia’s
largest EU trading partners was registered in ex-
ports to Germany, Great Britain and France
whereas exports to the Netherlands expanded.
Supply
The macroeconomic situation in the first
months of 2007 was characterised by high growth
rates. Output in the major types of economic ac-
tivity increased 8.8% in 2007 Q1 as against 4.2%
in the same period last year. The biggest growth
was registered in the production of products in the
construction sector, retail trade and manufactur-
ing industries.
Industrial output increased 8.4% in January-
March 2007 as against 3.0% in the same period
last year. The structure of industrial production in
2007 continued to change towards an increase in
the share of products made by manufacturing
sectors. Output in manufacturing industries in-
creased 14.5% in January-March 2007 as against
2.8% in January-March 2006. The most dynamic
development was registered in investment-attrac-
tive manufacturing sectors: the production of
machinery and equipment (26%), the production
of non-metallic mineral products (25.8%) and the
output of transport vehicles (16.4%). High growth
14 According to data provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the US Department of Commerce, the Statistical Office of
the European Communities (Eurostat), the National Statistics Bureau of China and national statistical offices of other countries.
15 According to data provided by the Federal Customs Service of Russia.
2007 Q1
Inflation Dynamics
rates were demonstrated by the industries whose
output goes to the consumer goods market: the
production of leather and footwear (18.7%),
foodstuffs (13.7%) and textile and clothing
(10.8%). Output growth in these industries cre-
ated conditions for the reduction of price growth.
The expanded supply of goods had a posi-
tive effect on prices. Output in agriculture in-
creased 1.9% in January-March 2007 as against
1.3% in the same period last year. There was a rise
in the production of major livestock products, in-
cluding cattle and poultry for slaughter (by 8.9%).
Growth in the production of meat and meat prod-
ucts by 12.2% in January-March 2007, as com-
pared with the same period last year, of which the
production of meat, including 1
st category sub-
products, rose 21.5%, led to the slowing of growth
in meat prices on the consumer goods market. A
considerable increase in the supply of granulated
sugar (by 73.9%) on the consumer goods market
also had a positive effect on sugar prices.
The rate of utilisation of production capaci-
ties has been observed to grow steadily in the past
few years. According to estimates, the utilisation
ratio in industry rose by 5 percentage points in
2006 year on year to 65%. At the end of 2006,
the highest utilisation ratio was registered in fuel
and energy production (82%), pulp and paper and
printing output (78%), coke and petroleum prod-
uct output (75%). The lowest utilisation ratio was
registered in the production of machinery and
equipment (49%), and also textile and clothing
production (47%). Considering the ageing of
fixed assets in industry (more than 50% of indus-
trial machinery and equipment have been in op-
eration for over 20 years), the 2006 utilisation ra-
tio can be characterised as relatively high, which
increases inflationary pressure on the economy.
Labour market
The trend towards an increase in job num-
bers observed in 2006 continued in 2007. The
number of jobs grew 1.2% in January-March 2007
as against 0.9% in the same period last year. Out-
put grew faster than job numbers. Estimates show
that labour productivity increased 6.6% in Janu-
ary-March 2007 as against 4.1% in the same pe-
riod last year. Consequently, the intensive factors
of growth continued to play a major role, contain-
ing price increases in the economy.
As in 2005, labour productivity in goods-
producing industries grew faster than in the ser-
vices sectors in 2006. However, labour productiv-
ity growth in the industries that produce goods
was largely due to the reduction of job numbers.
At the same time, growth in labour productivity in
the services sectors was attributable to a faster
increase in production than in job numbers.
Wages rose faster than labour productivity
in January-March 2007 and the gap between them
widened in that period, as compared with Janu-
ary-March 2006, creating conditions for further
price growth.
Wage levels by type of economic activity
continued to differ considerably in early 2007. The
highest average monthly wages were registered
in the financial sector (34,031 rubles) and fuel and
energy production (29,847 rubles), and exceeded
the national average wage by 190% and 160%,
respectively. The smallest wages were observed in
agriculture, hunting and forestry (4,720 rubles),
textile and clothing production (5,387 rubles), and
also in the production of leather, leather goods
and footwear (6,031 rubles), making up 40.7%,
46.5% and 52% of the country’s average wage,
respectively. It should be noted that low wages
were registered in the branches of the economy
largely financed from the state budget (education,
the provision of other communal, social and per-
sonal services; health care and social services).
The number of unemployed calculated ac-
cording to ILO methodology continued to decline
and fell 6.9% in January-March 2007 as against
2.8% in the same period last year. The total num-
ber of jobless stood at 7.2% of the economically
active population in January-March 2007 as com-
pared with 7.8% a year earlier.
2007 Q1
Monetary Conditions
Exchange rate
Favourable trends registered on the Russian
foreign exchange market in the previous period
prevailed in January-March 2007. High energy
prices, despite their temporary fall in early Janu-
ary, brought large amounts of foreign currency
earnings to the Russian forex market in the first
three months of 2007 and contributed to growth
in Russia’s international reserves given the Bank
of Russia’s managed floating exchange rate re-
gime. The ruble/dollar and the ruble/euro rates
on the domestic forex market followed the dy-
namics of the dollar/euro rate on international
markets. The Bank of Russia remained the net
buyer of foreign currency on the domestic forex
market as it conducted operations aimed at cush-
ioning fluctuations in the exchange rate of the
ruble against the dollar and the euro. From Febru-
ary 8, 2007, the structure of the bi-currency bas-
ket used by the Bank of Russia was changed from
0.6 dollars and 0.4 euros to 0.55 dollars and 0.45
euros. Last time the Bank of Russia changed the
structure of its bi-currency basket in December
2005.
The trend registered in early 2006 towards
the ruble’s appreciation against the US dollar
persisted in January-March 2007. Despite the
ruble’s fall against the dollar by 0.7% in January,
the ruble gained 1.1% against the US currency in
nominal terms in January-March 2007 quarter on
quarter (1.9% in January-March 2006). The ruble
rose 0.5% against the dollar in February and 0.9%
in March month on month to 26.01 rubles to the
dollar as of April 1, 2007. The ruble gained against
the US currency following the euro’s rise against
the dollar. At the same time, the euro appreciated
against the dollar on statements by the European
Central Bank that it would raise the eurozone in-
terest rate in 2007, and also on reports about the
intention of monetary authorities in some coun-
tries (China, Iran) to reduce the share of dollar
assets in their reserves. The average monthly
ruble/dollar rate was 26.31 rubles to the dollar in
January-March 2007 as against 26.59 rubles to the
dollar in October-December 2006.
The ruble/euro nominal exchange rate
continued to decline in 2007 Q1. Although the ruble
gained 0.8% against the euro in January and 0.2%
in February, it slipped 0.6% against the single Eu-
ropean currency in January-March 2007 (it rose
1% in January-March 2006) to 34.69 rubles to the
euro as of April 1, 2007. The average monthly
ruble/euro rate stood at 34.48 rubles to the euro
in 2007 Q1 as against 34.29 rubles to the euro in
2006 Q4.
The real exchange rate of the ruble gained
3.5% against the dollar and 2.3% against the euro
in January-March 2007 as compared with the pre-
2007 Q1
Monetary Conditions
vious quarter (6.1% and 5.5%, respectively, in
January-March 2006). The real effective exchange
rate of the ruble against foreign currencies rose
by an estimated 2% in the first three months of
2007 (by 4.7% in January-March 2006).
Russia’s international reserves grew by
11.6% or $35.1 billion in 2007 Q1 (by 13% or $23.6
billion in 2006 Q1). Russia’s international reserves
expanded by 0.05% or $154 million in January,
3.5% or $10.6 billion in February and 7.7% or $24.3
billion in March. The value of Russia’s international
reserves increased by almost 65% or $132.9 bil-
lion from April 1, 2006, to $338.8 billion as of April
1, 2007.
On international forex markets, the dollar lost 0.4%
to the euro and 1.1% to the yuan in January-March 2007
(March 2007 on December 2006). At the same time, the dol-
lar gained 0.1% against the Japanese yen. The dollar depreci-
ated against the euro due to the narrowing of differences in
interest rates in the United States and the eurozone. China
continued to conduct its policy of the yuan’s smooth appre-
ciation against the dollar (with intraday exchange rate fluc-
tuations limited to ±0.3%, as before). Changes in the dollar
exchange rate against some other currencies of importance
for the Russian economy demonstrated opposite trends. The
dollar appreciated against the Ukrainian hryvnia, Belarusian
ruble, Polish zloty, Swiss frank, British pound, South Korean
won, Czech koruna and Swedish krona but depreciated
against the Turkish lira, Kazakh tenge, Hungarian forint,
Lithuanian litas, Slovak koruna, Romanian leu and Indian ru-
pee.
Interest rates
In January-March 2007, the Bank of Russia
continued its policy of narrowing the interest
rate band in its operations. The upper limit of the
Bank of Russia interest rate band, set by the in-
terest rate on overnight loans, was lowered from
January 29, 2007, from 11% to 10.5% p.a. The
lower limit of the Bank of Russia interest rate
band, set by the interest rate on deposit opera-
tions on standard «tom-next,» «spot-next» and
«on call» conditions, stayed at the level of 2.25%
p.a. during the first quarter of 2007 and was raised
from April 2, 2007, from 2.25% to 2.5% p.a.
The Bank of Russia set higher deposit auc-
tion cut-off rates in January-March 2007. Aver-
age weighted four-week deposit auction interest
rates changed within a band of 4.04%-4.76% p.a.
as against 2.95%-4.50% p.a. in 2006 Q4 while
average weighted three-month deposit auction
interest rates changed within 4.55%-5.10% p.a.
(4.03%-5.11% p.a.). The average weighted yield
at the Bank of Russia bond (OBR) auctions held in
January-March 2007 also increased and ranged
from 4.73% to 5.36% p.a. (4.14%-5.24% p.a. in
2006 Q4).
The average weighted interest rate on over-
night repo operations, the principal market instru-
ment used to provide liquidity to banks, stayed
within the range of 6.01%-6.20% p.a. (6.01%-
6.47% p.a. in 2006 Q4). The average weighted
interest rate on Lombard loan auctions ranged
from 7.00% to 7.15% p.a. in January-March 2007
(from 7.00% to 7.18% p.a. in January-March
2006).
2007 Q1
The ruble’s appreciation against the world’s
major currencies in 2007 Q1 as compared with the
same period last year encouraged financial mar-
ket participants to invest in ruble-denominated
assets.
Credit institutions’ interest rates on over-
night interbank ruble loans remained within the
Bank of Russia interest rate band during the larger
part of 2007 Q1 and dropped below bid rates on
ruble «tom-next» deposits with the Bank of Rus-
sia (by 1-23 basis points) on some days of January
and February. MIACR interest rates on overnight
ruble loans ranged within a narrower band in Janu-
ary-March 2007 (2.02%-7.45% p.a.) as compared
with 2006 Q4 (2.17%-9.82% p.a.). The average
MIACR on overnight ruble loans in 2007 Q1
dropped to 4.0% p.a. as against 5.12% p.a. in
2006 Q4.
As in the previous quarter, there was no
single trend in the dynamics of interest rates on
ruble loans extended to non-financial enterprises
and households in the first three months of 2007.
The average quarterly interest rates on short-term
loans to non-financial enterprises fell by 0.5 per-
centage points to 9.9% p.a. in 2007 Q1 quarter on
quarter while the average quarterly interest rates
on long-term loans were unchanged at 12.1% p.a.
The yield curve for loans to non-financial
enterprises had a rising slope in all the maturity
sectors in January-March 2007. The inclination of
2007 Q1
Monetary Conditions
the yield curve increased due to a fall in interest
rates on loans with the term of up to three years
and growth in interest rates on loans with longer
terms.
The average interest rate on loans extended
to households for a term of up to one year
dropped by 0.1 percentage points in 2007 Q1 quar-
ter on quarter to 18.1% p.a. while the interest rate
on household loans for a term of over one year
increased by 0.1 percentage points to 15.6% p.a.
The average interest rate on household de-
posits with the term of up to one year dropped by
0.3 percentage points in 2007 Q1 quarter on quar-
ter to 7.4% p.a. In the period under review, the
term structure of household deposit interest rates
became more balanced. The interest rates on
household deposits with terms from six to 12
months became lower than the interest rates on
deposits with terms from one to three years, which
increased significantly. The average interest rate
on household deposits with terms from one to
three years rose by 1.7 percentage points in 2007
Q1 quarter on quarter to 9.4% p.a.
The yields on federal loan bonds (OFZ) were
observed to fluctuate in the first three months of
this year. As a result, the OFZ market portfolio
effective indicator stood at 6.63% p.a. at the end
of 2007 Q1, an increase of 0.06 percentage points
from the end of 2006 Q4. The average quarterly
OFZ market portfolio effective indicator fell by
0.04 percentage points to 6.63% p.a.
The OFZ yield curve retained its rising slope
in January-March 2007. The inclination of the yield
curve widened after yields on OFZ bonds with
terms of up to four years decreased and yields on
OFZ bonds with longer terms slightly increased.
In the period under review, the structure of
interest rates on instruments with different ma-
turities remained relatively balanced. The price
volatility of most of the ruble-denominated instru-
ments on the financial market was moderate. The
yield curves for the key financial instruments re-
tained their rising shape. The inclination of the
yield curves slightly increased due to opposite in-
terest rate dynamics (the interest rates on short-
term instruments slightly fell while the interest
rates on long-term instruments slightly increased).
2007 Q1
The US Federal Reserve has been keeping the bench-
mark interest rate on the shortest term interbank loans (fed-
eral funds rate) unchanged at 5.25% p.a. since mid-2006.
Eurozone consumer prices grew at an annual rate of less than
2% (month on corresponding month of previous year) in
January-March 2007, i.e. below the medium-term inflation
target set by the European Central Bank (ECB) to ensure price
stability. At the same time, the ECB continued its policy of
raising short-term interest rates. In March 2007, the ECB raised
the refinance rate from 3.5% to 3.75% p.a. (the seventh in-
crease by 0.25 percentage points since December 2005). The
US benchmark federal funds rate has exceeded the ECB’s re-
finance rate since December 2004 (with the difference of
1.5 percentage points since March 14, 2007, and the maxi-
mum difference of 2.5 percentage points over the period since
December 2004).
The LIBOR on deposits placed in US dollars was actu-
ally unchanged in January-March 2007 (March on December
2006) whereas the LIBOR on deposits placed in euros for
terms from one month to one year increased by 0.2 percent-
age point
s16. The yields on US government securities with
maturities from two to three years dropped by 0.1 percent-
age points while the yields on US government papers with
terms from five to 30 years changed by less than 0.1 percent-
age points. The yields on similar eurozone financial assets with
maturities from two to 30 years grew by 0.1-0.2 percentage
points. The LIBOR on the dollar-denominated deposits with
all maturity periods and the yield on US Treasury bonds with
all maturities in March 2007 were higher than the LIBOR on
the euro-denominated deposits and the yield on the eurozone
government securities.
Money
Growth in the monetary aggregate M2
stood at 4.6% in January-March 2007 and was
slower than in the previous quarter (16.0%) due
to seasonal factors. Growth in the M2 aggregate
accelerated on an annualised basis in the first three
months of this year from 48.8% as of January 1,
2007, to 52.6% as of April 1, 2007. As a result, the
annualised M2 growth exceeded as of April 1,
2007, the upper boundary of the adjusted fore-
cast on the ruble supply increase (32-34%) by 18.6
percentage points. At the same time, despite the
high rates of growth in money supply, inflation
continued to decrease and the consumer price in-
dex annualised growth remained within the tar-
geted range in January-March 2007. The high rates
of economic growth, the process of the
economy’s de-dollarisation and the increase in the
share of less liquid components of ruble supply
help lessen the inflationary consequences of
money supply growth. The velocity of money cal-
culated by the M2 aggregate declined by 4.9% in
January-March 2007 as against 2.3% in the same
period last year. On an annualised basis, the ve-
locity of money declined by 15.8% as of April 1,
2007, and this decline was faster than in 2005-
2006.
The aggregate Money in the monetary
survey definition, which comprises the most liq-
uid transactional components of the money sup-
ply, reflects the economic situation and liquidity
16 According to data provided by the Reuters agency.
2007 Q1
Monetary Conditions
preferences. In 2007 Q1, these funds increased
3.1% (they fell 0.1% in the same period last year)
due to growth in the aggregate’s non-cash com-
ponent comprising funds in demand deposits. The
value of demand deposits increased 7.9% in Janu-
ary-March 2007 as against 4.1% in the same pe-
riod last year. Growth in the value of demand de-
posits on an annualised basis accelerated from
52.0% to 57.5% in the first three months of 2007.
Growth in the aggregate Money increased from
an annualised 45.1% as of January 1, 2007, to
49.8% as of April 1, 2007.
The non-cash component of the aggregate
Money largely comprises corporate funds and its
growth reflects the increasing demand of eco-
nomic agents for money, which they need to con-
duct transactions. The share of corporate funds
increased from 77.7% to 79.9% in January-March
2007.
Following the seasonal patterns, cash out-
side banks (monetary aggregate M0) con-
tracted by 1.6% in January-March 2007 as against
4.0% in the same period last year. Growth in the
M0 aggregate on an annualised basis accelerated
from 38.6% to 42.1% in 2007 Q1.
The dynamics of household demand for for-
eign exchange had a major effect on M0 dynam-
ics in 2007 Q1. Net sales of foreign exchange to
2007 Q1
households through the exchange offices of
authorised banks accounted for nearly $800 mil-
lion in January-March 2007, which is a contrac-
tion of almost four times as compared with the
same period last year.
The share of cash in the M2 structure fell by
1.8 percentage points in January-March 2007 to
29.1% as of April 1, 2007. These structural changes
in the ruble supply may somewhat mitigate the
impact of money supply growth on inflation.
The aggregate Quasi-money comprises less
liquid components of money supply used by eco-
nomic agents as savings. In January-March 2007,
Quasi-money increased 12.6% as against 5.2% in
the same period last year and its annualised
growth accelerated from 34.0% as of April 1,
2006, to 44.8% as of April 1, 2007. Growth in
Quasi-money in 2007 Q1 was due to the expan-
sion of the ruble component and the increase in
the value of foreign currency-denominated de-
posits. The ruble-denominated time deposits in-
creased 7.0% in the period under review (5.9% in
January-March 2006) and their annualised growth
accelerated from 55.4% as of January 1, 2007, to
57.2% as of April 1, 2007. Foreign currency-de-
nominated deposits grew 30.6% in dollar terms
in January-March 2007 as against 8.1% in Janu-
ary-March 2006.
2007 Q1
Monetary Conditions
The money supply comprising foreign
currency deposits (M2X monetary aggregate)
grew 7.4% in January-March 2007 as compared
with 2.4% in the same period last year. As demand
for foreign exchange declined, the annualised
rates of growth in the M2 aggregate in 2007 Q1
were higher than the annualised rates of growth
in the M2X aggregate, which stood at 47.4% as
of April 1, 2007 (34.4% a year earlier).
The ratio of dollarisation (the share of the
foreign currency component in the money supply
in the monetary survey definition) increased in the
first three months of the year by 2.3 percentage
points to 13.7% as of April 1, 2007 (the ratio of
dollarisation grew by 0.3 percentage points in the
first three months of 2006 but fell by 4.9 percent-
age points in 2006 as a whole). Ruble-denomi-
nated time deposits predominated in the
M2X structure (33.4% as of April 1, 2007, as
against 31.3% a year earlier).
The banking sector’s net foreign assets,
which increased by 1,052.2 billion rubles in the first
three months of 2007 (by 565.7 billion rubles in
the same period last year) were the main source
of growth in the money supply comprising for-
eign currency-denominated deposits. Domestic
credit contracted by 30.7 billion rubles in the pe-
riod under review (by 331.3 billion rubles in Janu-
ary-March 2006). The annualised rates of growth
in the non-cash component of the M2X aggregate
stood at 49.3% as of April 1, 2007, suggesting that
growth in ruble- and foreign currency-denomi-
nated funds attracted by banks from non-finan-
cial enterprises and households was slightly slower
than growth in banking sector claims on non-fi-
nancial enterprises and households (49.8%). The
increase in these claims was larger in January-
March 2007 (8.7%) than in January-March 2006
(6.8%). Therefore, the importance of banking
sector credit to non-financial enterprises and
households as a source of growth in the aggre-
gate money supply increased in the first three
months of 2007.
The broad monetary base expanded 2.1%
in January-March 2007 (it narrowed 6.6% in the
same period last year). The share of credit institu-
tions’ correspondent accounts with the Bank of
Russia decreased from 15.5% to 12.3% of broad
money in the first three months of 2007. The share
of banking sector funds absorbed by the Bank of
Russia by taking them on deposit and OBR opera-
tions increased from 4.9% to 12.8% in 2007 Q1.
The share of absorbed funds, including banks’ re-
quired reserves, also increased, from 10.2% to
17.8% (in the first quarter of 2006, it expanded
by 5.3 percentage points to 12.2% as of the end
of the quarter).
The net foreign assets of monetary au-
thorities, which grew by 820.2 billion rubles, were
the main source of growth in the broad monetary
base in January-March 2007. The accumulation of
funds in general government accounts, resulting
above all from the expansion of the
Stabilisation Fund , had a restraining effect on
money supply growth in January-March 2007. The
Russian Government’s Stabilisation Fund ex-
panded 19.8% in the first three months of 2007
to 2,812.2 billion rubles (it grew 35.6% in the same
period last year).
2007 Q1
Statistical Addendum
Table 1
Consumer prices by group of goods and services
(month on month, %)
Monthly
inflation
Core
inflation
Food price
growth
Food price
growth*
Vegetable and
fruit price growth
Non-food price
growth
Growth in
non-food prices,
excluding petrol
prices
Service price
growth
January 2.6 0.9 1.4 1.1 5.1 0.4 0.5 8.8
February 1.2 0.7 1.4 0.9 6.1 0.4 0.4 2.2
March 1.3 0.8 2.1 1.1 11.2 0.4 0.4 1.2
April 1.1 0.9 1.7 1.3 5.4 0.5 0.4 0.8
May 0.8 0.6 1.1 0.7 4.1 0.4 0.4 0.8
June 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.4 3.3 0.3 0.3 0.9
July 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 -1.8 0.4 0.4 0.9
August -0.1 0.5 -1.0 0.5 -12.9 0.5 0.4 0.8
September 0.3 0.8 -0.7 0.6 -11.6 1.1 0.8 0.9
October 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.6 -2.4 0.7 0.7 0.7
November 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.6 4.5 0.6 0.6 0.6
December 0.8 0.6 1.1 0.6 5.6 0.5 0.5 0.8
Full year (December
on December)
10.9 8.3 9.6 9.1 14.3 6.4 6.0 21.0
January 2.4 0.8 2.0 1.0 11.3 0.4 0.5 6.2
February 1.7 1.2 3.0 1.9 12.6 0.5 0.5 1.0
March 0.8 0.7 1.2 0.9 3.2 0.4 0.4 0.7
April 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 -0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6
May 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 2.6 0.4 0.4 0.6
June 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 -0.6 0.3 0.3 0.7
July 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.7 2.7 0.4 0.3 0.6
August 0.2 0.6 -0.5 0.7 -10.0 0.8 0.5 0.8
September 0.1 0.8 -0.6 0.6 -11.0 0.8 0.6 0.5
October 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.4 -4.1 0.6 0.7 0.4
November 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 2.7 0.6 0.6 0.5
December 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.8 3.6 0.5 0.5 0.7
Full year (December
on December)
9.0 7.8 8.7 8.5 10.3 6.0 5.7 13.9
January 1.7 0.6 0.9 0.6 4.1 0.4 0.4 4.7
February 1.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 3.6 0.3 0.4 2.6
March 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.5 3.2 0.4 0.4 0.6
* Excluding vegetable and fruit prices.
Note: Tables 1-7 are based on Rosstat data and Bank of Russia calculations.
2007 Q1
Statistical Addendum
Table 2
Consumer prices by group of goods and services
(since start of year on accrual basis, %)
Monthly
inflation
Core
inflation
Food price
growth
Food price
growth*
Vegetable and
fruit price growth
Non-food price
growth
Growth in
non-food prices,
excluding petrol
prices
Service price
growth
January 2.6 0.9 1.4 1.1 5.1 0.4 0.5 8.8
February 3.9 1.7 2.8 2.0 11.5 0.7 0.9 11.2
March 5.3 2.4 4.9 3.1 24.0 1.1 1.2 12.6
April 6.5 3.3 6.7 4.4 30.8 1.6 1.6 13.5
May 7.3 4.0 7.9 5.1 36.1 2.1 2.0 14.4
June 8.0 4.4 8.6 5.5 40.6 2.4 2.4 15.4
July 8.5 5.0 8.9 6.1 38.0 2.8 2.8 16.5
August 8.3 5.5 7.8 6.6 20.2 3.4 3.2 17.4
September 8.6 6.3 7.1 7.2 6.2 4.5 4.1 18.5
October 9.2 7.1 7.5 7.8 3.6 5.2 4.8 19.3
November 10.0 7.7 8.4 8.4 8.3 5.9 5.5 20.0
December 10.9 8.3 9.6 9.1 14.3 6.4 6.0 21.0
January 2.4 0.8 2.0 1.0 11.3 0.4 0.5 6.2
February 4.1 2.0 5.0 2.9 25.3 0.9 0.9 7.2
March 5.0 2.8 6.2 3.9 29.3 1.3 1.3 8.0
April 5.4 3.2 6.5 4.2 28.9 1.6 1.6 8.6
May 5.9 3.6 7.0 4.4 32.3 2.0 2.0 9.3
June 6.2 3.9 7.0 4.5 31.5 2.3 2.3 10.0
July 6.9 4.5 8.0 5.2 35.0 2.7 2.7 10.7
August 7.1 5.1 7.4 6.0 21.6 3.5 3.2 11.5
September 7.2 5.9 6.7 6.6 8.2 4.3 3.8 12.0
October 7.5 6.5 6.7 7.0 3.7 5.0 4.5 12.5
November 8.2 7.1 7.5 7.6 6.5 5.5 5.2 13.0
December 9.0 7.8 8.6 8.5 10.3 6.0 5.7 13.9
January 1.7 0.6 0.9 0.6 4.1 0.4 0.4 4.7
February 2.8 1.1 1.8 1.1 7.8 0.7 0.8 7.4
March 3.4 1.7 2.6 1.7 11.2 1.1 1.2 8.0
* Excluding vegetable and fruit prices.
2007 Q1
Table 3
Consumer prices by group of goods and services
(month on corresponding month of previous year, %)
Monthly
inflation
Core
inflation
Food price
growth
Food price
growth*
Vegetable and
fruit price growth
Non-food price
growth
Growth in
non-food prices,
excluding petrol
prices
Service price
growth
January 12.7 10.4 12.1 12.9 3.0 7.3 6.2 23.1
February 13.0 10.4 12.4 12.6 7.6 7.2 6.2 23.8
March 13.6 10.5 13.5 12.9 16.4 7.1 6.1 24.6
April 13.8 10.6 14.5 13.2 23.4 7.0 6.0 23.1
May 13.8 10.6 15.2 13.3 29.3 6.6 5.8 22.4
June 13.7 10.6 15.1 13.4 27.5 6.3 5.7 22.4
July 13.2 10.3 14.2 12.9 23.4 6.2 5.7 21.9
August 12.5 10.1 12.9 12.5 14.7 6.1 5.7 21.6
September 12.3 10.0 12.1 12.1 11.3 6.3 5.9 22.0
October 11.7 9.4 11.0 10.9 11.6 6.3 5.9 21.4
November 11.3 8.9 10.3 9.9 14.1 6.3 6.1 21.2
December 10.9 8.3 9.6 9.1 14.3 6.4 6.1 21.0
January 10.7 8.2 10.2 9.1 21.1 6.5 6.0 18.1
February 11.2 8.7 11.9 10.1 28.4 6.6 6.1 16.7
March 10.6 8.7 10.9 10.0 19.2 6.7 6.1 16.1
April 9.8 8.2 9.4 9.0 12.7 6.4 6.0 15.9
May 9.4 7.9 8.7 8.5 11.1 6.4 6.0 15.6
June 9.0 7.8 8.0 8.1 7.0 6.4 6.0 15.3
July 9.3 7.8 8.7 8.3 11.9 6.3 5.9 15.0
August 9.6 7.9 9.2 8.5 15.6 6.6 6.0 15.0
September 9.5 7.9 9.3 8.5 16.4 6.2 5.8 14.5
October 9.2 7.8 8.8 8.3 14.4 6.1 5.7 14.1
November 9.0 7.8 8.7 8.3 12.4 6.0 5.7 13.9
December 9.0 7.8 8.7 8.5 10.3 6.0 5.7 13.9
January 8.2 7.7 7.5 8.0 3.1 6.0 5.7 12.3
February 7.6 6.9 5.3 6.6 -5.1 5.8 5.6 14.2
March 7.4 6.7 4.9 6.2 -5.2 5.8 5.6 14.0
* Excluding vegetable and fruit prices.
2007 Q1
Statistical Addendum
Table 4
Inflation growth over period since start of year due to price changes by group
of goods and services (percentage points)
Foodstuffs* Non-food
products Paid services Vegetables and
fruit
Inflation over
period, % Core inflation Non-core
inflation**
January 0.4 0.1 1.8 0.2 2.6 0.7 1.9
February 0.8 0.2 2.3 0.5 3.9 1.3 2.6
March 1.3 0.4 2.6 1.0 5.3 1.9 3.3
April 1.9 0.5 2.8 1.3 6.5 2.7 3.8
May 2.1 0.7 3.0 1.5 7.3 3.1 4.1
June 2.3 0.8 3.2 1.7 8.0 3.5 4.5
July 2.5 0.9 3.4 1.6 8.5 3.9 4.5
August 2.8 1.1 3.6 0.8 8.3 4.4 4.0
September 3.0 1.5 3.9 0.3 8.6 5.0 3.6
October 3.3 1.7 4.0 0.1 9.2 5.6 3.6
November 3.6 1.9 4.2 0.3 10.0 6.1 3.9
December 3.8 2.1 4.4 0.6 10.9 6.6 4.3
January 0.4 0.2 1.5 0.4 2.4 0.6 1.8
February 1.1 0.3 1.7 1.0 4.1 1.5 2.6
March 1.5 0.5 1.9 1.2 5.0 2.1 2.9
April 1.6 0.6 2.0 1.1 5.4 2.5 2.9
May 1.7 0.7 2.2 1.3 5.9 2.7 3.1
June 1.8 0.8 2.4 1.2 6.2 3.0 3.2
July 2.0 0.9 2.5 1.4 6.9 3.4 3.5
August 2.3 1.2 2.7 0.9 7.1 3.9 3.2
September 2.6 1.5 2.9 0.3 7.2 4.6 2.6
October 2.7 1.7 3.0 0.1 7.5 5.0 2.5
November 3.0 1.9 3.1 0.3 8.2 5.5 2.7
December 3.3 2.0 3.3 0.4 9.0 6.1 3.0
January 0.2 0.1 1.2 0.2 1.7 0.5 1.2
February 0.4 0.3 1.8 0.3 2.8 0.9 1.9
March 0.6 0.4 2.0 0.4 3.4 1.3 2.1
* Excluding vegetables and fruit.
** Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in calculation of core consumer price index.
2007 Q1
Table 5
Monthly inflation growth due to price changes by group
of goods and services (percentage points)
Foodstuffs* Non-food
products Paid services Vegetables and
fruit
Inflation over
period, % Core inflation Non-core
inflation**
January 0.4 0.1 1.8 0.2 2.6 0.7 1.9
February 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.3 1.2 0.6 0.7
March 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.3 0.6 0.7
April 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 1.1 0.7 0.4
May 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.3
June 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.3
July 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1
August 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.6 -0.1 0.4 -0.5
September 0.2 0.4 0.2 -0.6 0.3 0.6 -0.4
October 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0
November 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.3
December 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.4
January 0.4 0.2 1.5 0.4 2.4 0.6 1.8
February 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.7 0.9 0.7
March 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.3
April 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0
May 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.2
June 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1
July 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.3
August 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.5 0.2 0.5 -0.3
September 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.5 0.1 0.6 -0.5
October 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.2 0.3 0.4 -0.1
November 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.2
December 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.3
January 0.2 0.1 1.2 0.2 1.7 0.5 1.2
February 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.1 1.1 0.4 0.7
March 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.2
* Excluding vegetables and fruit.
** Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in calculation of core consumer price index.
2007 Q1
Statistical Addendum
Table 6
Contribution to inflation growth over period since start
of year by group of goods and services (%)
Foodstuffs* Non-food products Paid services Vegetables and fruit Core inflation Non-core inflation**
January 17.0 4.8 70.2 8.0 27.1 72.9
February 21.2 6.2 60.4 12.1 33.4 66.6
March 24.5 6.8 50.0 18.7 36.7 63.3
April 28.6 8.1 43.8 19.5 41.1 58.9
May 29.3 9.2 41.2 20.2 43.1 56.9
June 29.0 9.8 40.5 20.8 44.1 55.9
July 30.1 10.9 40.7 18.3 46.5 53.5
August 33.2 13.2 43.6 9.9 52.3 47.7
September 35.1 17.1 44.9 3.0 58.3 41.7
October 35.9 18.6 43.9 1.6 60.9 39.1
November 35.6 19.2 41.8 3.4 61.1 38.9
December 35.2 19.2 40.3 5.4 60.5 39.5
January 16.0 6.1 59.5 18.3 24.5 75.5
February 27.2 7.7 40.9 24.1 37.2 62.8
March 30.1 9.1 37.6 23.2 42.4 57.6
April 30.5 10.3 37.9 21.3 45.7 54.3
May 29.3 11.8 37.2 21.8 46.7 53.3
June 28.6 12.9 38.3 20.2 48.4 51.6
July 29.6 13.5 36.7 20.2 49.7 50.3
August 32.7 16.8 38.5 12.1 55.4 44.6
September 35.7 20.2 39.6 4.5 63.4 36.6
October 36.3 22.4 39.4 2.0 66.7 33.3
November 36.2 22.9 37.7 3.2 67.3 32.7
December 36.6 22.6 36.3 4.6 67.1 32.9
January 13.4 8.3 69.0 9.3 29.5 70.5
February 14.9 9.2 65.3 10.6 31.3 68.7
March 17.8 11.6 58.1 12.5 38.4 61.6
* Excluding vegetables and fruit.
** Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in calculation of core consumer price index.
2007 Q1
Table 7
Contribution to monthly inflation growth by group
of goods and services (%)
Foodstuffs* Non-food products Paid services Vegetables and fruit Core inflation Non-core inflation**
January 17.0 4.8 70.2 8.0 27.1 72.9
February 30.0 9.2 40.0 20.8 46.5 53.5
March 33.6 8.4 20.9 37.0 46.1 53.9
April 46.7 14.1 15.8 23.4 60.9 39.1
May 34.9 18.4 20.6 26.1 60.1 39.9
June 25.7 15.5 32.1 26.6 54.6 45.4
July 48.4 29.6 43.6 -21.6 86.0 14.0
August Estimate can't be made for negative value
September 92.7 141.5 83.9 -218.1 243.9 -143.9
October 47.2 40.9 29.7 -17.8 96.4 3.6
November 31.6 26.1 18.2 24.1 63.1 36.9
December 31.0 18.8 22.1 28.1 53.5 46.5
January 16.0 6.1 59.5 18.3 24.5 75.5
February 43.4 10.0 14.0 32.6 55.8 44.2
March 43.9 15.8 21.6 18.7 67.5 32.5
April 35.8 27.0 41.3 -4.2 90.9 9.1
May 16.1 27.6 29.9 26.4 57.3 42.7
June 15.3 34.9 59.7 -10.0 81.6 18.4
July 37.6 19.0 23.4 20.0 60.9 39.1
August 140.5 132.4 97.9 -270.7 249.5 -149.5
September 269.8 290.1 128.8 -588.7 678.9 -578.9
October 51.0 73.9 34.6 -59.5 145.8 -45.8
November 35.6 29.6 17.8 17.0 74.1 25.9
December 39.5 18.9 23.2 18.4 64.4 35.6
January 13.4 8.3 69.0 9.3 29.5 70.5
February 17.1 10.6 59.7 12.6 34.2 65.8
March 31.4 22.7 24.5 21.4 71.1 28.9
* Excluding vegetables and fruit.
** Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in calculation of core consumer price index.
2007 Q1
Statistical Addendum
Table 8
Russia's key macroeconomic and financial indicators
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Macroeconomic indicators
GDP
over period since start of year, billion rubles
2004 3,517 7,487 12,433 17,048
2005 4,479 9,652 15,524 21,620
2006 5,662 11,988 19,236 26,781
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2004 107.0 107.4 107.3 107.2
2005 105.0 105.3 105.8 106.4
2006 105.0 106.1 106.3 106.7
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2004 107.0 107.8 107.2 106.6
2005 105.0 105.6 106.6 108.0
2006 105.0 107.0 106.8 107.8
Industrial output indices
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2005 103.2 103.6 104.1 104.9
2006 103.0 106.0 103.8 103.0
2007 108.4
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2005 103.2 103.4 103.6 104.0
2006 103.0 104.4 104.2 103.9
2007 108.4
Agricultural output
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2005 100.3 101.2 103.8 101.4
2006 101.3 101.0 100.6 109.5
2007 101.9
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2005 100.3 100.9 102.7 102.4
2006 101.3 101.1 100.8 102.8
2007 101.9
Fixed capital investment
over period since start of year, billion rubles
2005 540.5 1,316.8 2,310.4 3,611.1
2006 636.5 1,622.1 2,868.4 4,580.5
2007 866.5
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2005 106.3 108.4 111.4 114.3
2006 105.7 114.7 113.0 117.2
2007 120.1
Retail trade turnover
over period since start of year, billion rubles
2005 1,511.1 3,185.9 4,982.7 7,040.9
2006 1,852.4 3,915.5 6,147.6 8,690.3
2007 2,228.3
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2005 110.5 113.8 113.3 113.5
2006 111.1 113.3 115.0 115.0
2007 113.6
Federal budget on accrual
basis, as of end of period
revenue
billion rubles
2005 1,196.4 2,386.4 3,681.7 5,127.2
2006 1,399.1 2,938.1 4,561.0 6,276.3*
2007 1,421.9
as % of GDP
2005 26.7 24.7 23.7 23.7
2006 24.7 24.5 23.7 23.4
2007 21.2
expenditure
billion rubles
2005 671.1 1,444.2 2,519.7 3,514.3
2006 823.2 1,854.7 2,866.5 4,281.3*
2007 945.8
as % of GDP
2005 15.0 15.0 16.2 16.2
2006 14.5 15.5 14.9 16.0
2007 14.1
Federal budget surplus on accrual basis, as of end of period
billion rubles
2005 525.3 942.2 1,162.0 1,612.9
2006 575.9 1,083.4 113.3 1,995.0*
2007 476.3
as % of GDP
2005 11.7 9.7 7.5 7.5
2006 10.2 9.0 8.8 7.4
2007 7.1
Note: Table 8 is based on data compiled by the Bank of Russia, the Federal State Statistics Service and on reporting data prepared
by the Federal Treasury. Pursuant to Bank of Russia Ordinance No.1660-U of February 17, 2006, the data of credit institutions'
branches are taken into account to calculate interest rates on banks' credit and deposit operations from April 2006.
2007 Q1
Table 8 (continued)
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Socio-economic indicators
Nominal imputed average
monthly per employee wage
rubles
2005 7,638 8,234 8,674 9,651
2006 9,397 10,401 10,949 12,203
2007 11,924
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2005 122.6 122.4 123.9 126.2
2006 122.3 125.1 125.1 125.2
2007 127.6
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2005 122.6 122.4 123.0 126.9
2006 122.3 123.7 124.1 124.4
2007 127.6
Real imputed average monthly
per employee wage
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2005 108.4 107.6 110.0 113.4
2006 110.3 114.3 114.3 114.8
2007 118.4
Household money income per capita monthly average, rubles
2005 6,539.5 7,707.3 8,064.7 9,697.7
2006 8,025.7 9,806.4 10,087.6 11,791.8
2007 9,749.2
Household real disposable
money income
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2005 105.1 114.1 112.7 111.9
2006 106.8 113.2 111.4 109.3
2007 113.0
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2005 105.1 109.8 110.8 111.1
2006 106.8 110.2 110.6 110.2
2007 113.0
Household spending, as % of
income
purchase of goods and payment for services
2005 73.6 70.1 71.9 67.2
2006 73.9 67.9 71.4 68.2
2007 74.0
obligatory payments and contributions
2005 8.4 8.8 9.6 9.6
2006 11.4 11.0 11.6 11.1
2007 12.7
growth in savings
2005 13.1 10.3 9.5 9.4
2006 10.7 9.7 7.3 10.3
2007 10.4
foreign exchange purchase
2005 7.6 8.0 9.1 9.2
2006 7.6 7.0 7.3 7.4
2007 5.3
cash on hand
2005 -2.7 2.8 -0.1 4.6
2006 -3.6 4.4 2.4 3.0
2007 -2.4
Average imputed pension total, rubles
2005 2,125 2,324 2,467 2,540
2006 2,539 2,727 2,800 2,839
2007 2,846
Real imputed pension
as % of corresponding quarter
of previous year
2005 106.6 108.2 110.6 112.6
2006 107.8 107.2 103.7 102.5
2007 104.1
as % of corresponding period of
previous year
2005 106.6 107.4 108.5 109.6
2006 107.8 107.5 106.1 105.1
2007 104.1
Total number of unemployed (calculated by ILO methodology)
million
2005 6.0 5.5 5.4 5.5
2006 5.7 5.5 5.0 5.0
2007 5.3
as % of economically active
population
2005 8.2 7.4 7.3 7.5
2006 7.8 7.4 6.7 6.8
2007 7.2
2007 Q1
Statistical Addendum
Table 8 (continued)
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Foreign economic activities
Price of Urals crude
over period since start of year, $/barrel
2005 43.1 45.4 49.3 50.4
2006 57.7 61.1 62.5 60.9
2007 54.0
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2005 146.4 146.1 148.2 145.6
2006 134.0 134.7 126.7 120.9
2007 93.5
Exports of goods
over period since start of year, $ billion
2005 50.2 109.8 174.7 243.8
2006 67.4 143.9 223.8 303.9
2007 71.4
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2005 134.6 136.4 135.4 133.1
2006 134.2 131.1 128.1 124.7
2007 106.0
Imports of goods
over period since start of year, $ billion
2005 25.7 55.1 87.6 125.4
2006 31.0 69.8 112.6 164.7
2007 43.0
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2005 129.1 128.6 129.1 128.8
2006 120.6 126.6 128.6 131.3
2007 138.7
Current account (over period since start of year), $ billion
2005 20.0 42.1 62.0 83.8
2006 30.5 55.0 78.5 94.5
2007 21.8**
Net capital outflow (inflow) by private sector (over period since start of year), $ billion
2005 1.8 -3.3 5.0 0.7
2006 -5.8 14.7 27.4 41.7
2007 13.0**
Foreign investment in Russia's non-financial
sector (Rosstat data)
over period since start of year, $ billion
2004 6.2 19.0 29.1 40.5
2005 6.0 16.5 26.8 53.6
2006 8.8 23.4 35.3 55.1
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2004 98.5 149.9 139.4 136.4
2005 97.6 86.9 92.1 132.4
2006 146.0 141.9 131.7 102.7
of which
direct
total, $ billion
2004 1.5 3.4 5.6 9.4
2005 1.9 4.5 6.6 13.1
2006 3.8 6.4 10.3 13.7
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2004 142.8 135.3 119.8 138.9
2005 130.0 131.0 118.1 138.8
2006 200.0 143.6 155.5 104.6
portfolio
total, $ billion
2004 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3
2005 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5
2006 0.2 0.5 0.7 3.2
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2004 500.0 340.0 280.0 83.0
2005 89.9 135.2 160.5 136.3
2006 290.0 290.0 182.3 700.0
other
total, $ billion
2004 4.6 15.4 23.3 30.8
2005 4.0 11.8 19.9 40.1
2006 4.7 16.5 24.4 38.2
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2004 88.3 152.9 144.4 136.6
2005 87.3 76.7 85.2 130.5
2006 117.2 139.1 122.8 95.3
Russia's international reserves (as of end of period), $ billion
2005 137.4 151.6 159.6 182.2
2006 205.9 250.6 266.2 303.7
2007 338.8
Real ruble exchange rate indices,
last month of quarter
(as % of December of previous year)***
ruble vs. dollar
2005 4.7 3.3 2.3 3.9
2006 6.9 10.0 12.1 16.7
2007 2.3
ruble vs. euro
2005 6.8 14.7 14.2 18.8
2006 6.5 4.9 6.0 5.6
2007 3.1
effective rate
2005 5.1 8.7 8.3 10.5
2006 6.2 7.0 7.9 7.4
2007 2.6**
2007 Q1
Table 8 (continued)
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Financial market indicators (with account taken of Sberbank rates)
Average for period
Overnight interbank credit rate, % p.a.
in rubles
2005 1.2 3.0 2.3 4.6
2006 3.2 2.8 2.6 5.1
2007 3.9
in US dollars
2005 2.3 2.8 3.3 3.9
2006 4.4 4.8 5.2 5.2
2007 5.2
OFZ yields****, % p.a.
2005 7.9 8.0 7.7 7.1
2006 6.8 6.9 6.8 6.7
2007 6.6
Interest rate on household time deposits,
% p.a.
up to 1 year in rubles
2005 9.5 8.6 8.5 8.4
2006 8.3 8.0 7.6 7.7
2007 7.4
over 1 year in rubles
2005 8.4 7.9 6.2 6.4
2006 7.6 5.1 5.2 5.4
2007 7.9
up to 1 year in US dollars
2005 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.6
2006 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.9
2007 5.4
over 1 year in US dollars
2005 6.1 5.6 5.8 5.5
2006 6.2 4.7 5.0 5.5
2007 6.8
Interest rate on credit to non-financial
enterprises, % p.a.
up to 1 year in rubles
2005 10.6 10.7 10.3 11.0
2006 10.4 10.8 10.3 10.4
2007 9.9
over 1 year in rubles
2005 13.0 11.7 12.9 12.1
2006 12.7 12.9 12.5 12.1
2007 12.1
up to 1 year in US dollars
2005 7.9 8.6 9.0 8.8
2006 8.6 8.4 8.6 8.5
2007 8.7
over 1 year in US dollars
2005 9.6 9.6 10.4 10.4
2006 10.5 10.2 10.4 10.0
2007 10.3
Interest rate on ruble-denominated promissory notes discounted by banks, % p.a.
2005 10.9 10.6 9.9 10.0
2006 12.9 8.7 9.2 9.7
2007 9.5
MICEX rate in «tomorrow» trades, ruble/$
2005 27.8560 28.1012 28.5150 28.7151
2006 28.0733 27.1897 26.8053 26.5910
2007 26.1795
As of end of quarter
RTS index, points
2005 669.07 706.38 1,007.76 1,125.60
2006 1,434.99 1,494.63 1,549.99 1,921.92
2007 1,935.72
Refinance rate, % p.a.
2005 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.0
2006 12.0 11.5 11.5 11.0
2007 10.5
2007 Q1
Statistical Addendum
Table 8 (continued)
Year 1.01 1.04 1.07 1.10
Monetary indicators
M0, billion rubles
2005 1,534.8 1,481.7 1,650.7 1,740.7
2006 2,009.2 1,928.8 2,233.4 2,400.8
2007 2,785.2 2,741.2
M2, billion rubles
2005 4,363.3 4,474.6 4,927.4 5,292.8
2006 6,045.6 6,169.4 7,092.3 7,757.5
2007 8,995.8 9,412.6
Net foreign assets of monetary authorities and credit institutions, billion rubles
2005 3,210.0 3,753.3 4,379.7 4,405.4
2006 4,867.9 5,433.6 6,221.1 6,281.8
2007 6,927.5 7,979.7
Domestic credit, billion rubles
2005 4,345.6 3,509.6 3,487.7 4,035.2
2006 4,460.8 4,129.4 4,256.1 4,944.1
2007 5,727.7 5,696.9
Money (monetary survey definition), billion rubles
2005 2,848.3 2,859.6 3,144.3 3,371.9
2006 3,858.5 3,855.9 4,479.3 4,856.1
2007 5,598.4 5,774.3
Quasi-money (monetary survey definition), billion rubles
2005 2,450.4 2,640.0 2,871.6 3,086.5
2006 3,362.6 3,537.0 3,825.5 4,041.1
2007 4,548.3 5,120.2
Foreign currency-denominated deposits, billion rubles
2005 935.1 1,024.9 1,090.6 1,167.9
2006 1,178.2 1,225.9 1,221.0 1,153.2
2007 1,155.4 1,490.6
Broad monetary base, billion rubles
2005 2,380.3 2,250.1 2,302.8 2,538.9
2006 2,914.1 2,721.0 3,285.9 3,484.2
2007 4,121.6 4,209.2
Balances in correspondent accounts, billion rubles
2005 480.4 320.9 276.7 374.4
2006 508.6 320.0 430.9 443.7
2007 638.1 518.1
M2 velocity
annual average
2005 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6
2006 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.0
2007 3.8 3.6
change since start of year, %
2005 -10.0***** -1.1 -1.9 -3.4
2006 -6.5***** -2.3 -6.1 -9.6
2007 -13.5***** -4.9
Monetisation (by M2 aggregate), %
2005 21.2 21.4 21.6 22.0
2006 22.7 23.2 24.2 25.1
2007 26.2 27.6
Money multiplier
by broad monetary base
2005 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.1
2006 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.2
2007 2.2 2.2
change since start of year, %
2005 9.2***** 8.5 16.7 13.7
2006 13.2***** 9.3 4.0 7.3
2007 5.2***** 2.5
Foreign exchange rates
rubles per US dollar
2005 27.75 27.85 28.63 28.53
2006 28.78 27.70 26.94 26.78
2007 26.33 26.01
rubles per euro
2005 37.84 36.03 34.63 34.31
2006 34.19 33.63 34.24 33.98
2007 34.70 34.69
* Preliminary data.
** Estimate.
*** Appreciation of the ruble - «+», depreciation of the ruble - «-».
**** Effective indicator of OFZ market portfolio.
***** Relative to beginning of previous year.
© The Central Bank of the Russian Federation, 2007
Research and Information Department