NBP MPC Press Release - 2024-10-01
Central bank: nbp | Type: decision | Date: 2024-10-01

Warsaw, 2 October 2024
Information from the meeting of the Monetary Policy Council
held on 1-2 October 2024
The Council decided to keep the NBP interest rates unchanged:
▪ reference rate at 5.75%;
▪ lombard rate at 6.25%;
▪ deposit rate at 5.25%;
▪ rediscount rate at 5.80%;
▪ discount rate at 5.85%.
The economic conditions in the environment of the Polish economy are still weakened. In
2024 Q3, the annual GDP growth in the euro area , including in Germany, presumably
continued to be low. Meanwhile, in the United States the annual economic activity growth
remains relatively high , despite some deterioration in labour market conditions.
Uncertainty about the activity outlook in the largest economies persists.
Inflation in the major advanced economies is running close to the central banks’ inflation
targets. Inflation is driven down by the reduction of cost pressures reflected in low
producer price growth, and by the weak activity growth in some economies. At the same
time, core inflation is running above headline inflation amid elevated growth in services
prices.
In Poland, a gradual economic recovery continues. In August 2024 retail sales was higher,
while industrial production and construction and assembly output were lower than a year
ago. In the labour market unemployment remains low and the number of working persons
continues to be high, although employment in the enterprise sector in August 2024 was
lower than a year ago. At the same time, the wage growth is still running at the high level.
According to the Statistics Poland flash estimate, annual CPI inflation in September 2024
was 4.9% (against 4.3% in August). The rise in inflation in recent months has been mainly
a result of increases in administered prices of energy carriers, as well as – albeit to a lesser
extent – an increase in annual growth in prices of food and non -alcoholic beverages .
Considering the preliminary Statistics Poland data, it can be estimated that inflation net of
food and energy prices also rose, but remained lower than CPI inflation. In August 2024,
the annual fall in producer prices remained significant.
In the Council’s assessment, incoming data indicate that despite the observed economic
recovery, demand and cost pressures in the Polish economy remain relatively low, which
amidst weakened economic conditions and lower inflation pressure abroad curbs
domestic inflation pressure. The Council judges that consumer price growth is also
constrained by the appreciation of the zloty exchange rate, which is consistent with the
fundamentals of the Polish economy. However, price pressure in the domestic economy
is stimulated by a marked wage growth, stemming i.a. from wage increases in the public
sector. Alongside that, the rise in prices of energy carriers increases inflation significantly.
This factor will continue to affect the annual inflation rate in the coming quarters. When
the effects of the energy price increase fade – amid the current NBP interest rates level –
inflation should return to the medium -term NBP target, although the impact of higher
energy prices on inflation expectations is an uncertainty factor. The inflation
developments over the medium term will be also affected by the further fiscal and
regulatory polic y measures , the pace of economic recovery in Poland and the labour
market conditions.
Against this background, the Council decided to keep the NBP interest rates unchanged.
The Council judges that the current level of the NBP interest rates is conducive to meeting
the NBP inflation target in the medium term.
Further decisions of the Council will depend on incoming information regarding
prospects for inflation and economic activity.
NBP will continue to take all necessary actions in order to ensure macroeconomic and
financial stability, including above all to bring inflation down sustainably to the NBP
inflation target in the medium term. NBP may intervene in the foreign exchange market.