NBP MPC Press Release - 2021-01-13
Central bank: nbp | Type: decision | Date: 2021-01-13

Warsaw, 13 January 2021 
Information from the meeting of the Monetary Policy 
Council held on 13 January 2021 
The Council decided to keep the NBP interest rates unchanged: 
 
• reference rate at 0.10%; 
• lombard rate at 0.50%; 
• deposit rate at 0.00%; 
• rediscount rate at 0.11%; 
• discount rate at 0.12%. 
 
NBP will continue to purchase government securities and government-guaranteed 
debt securities on the secondary market as part of the structu ral open market 
operations. The timing and scale of the conducted measures w ill depend on the 
market conditions. Furthermore, NBP will also offer bill discount credit aimed at 
refinancing loans granted to enterprises by banks. 
 
Data from the global economy indicate that as COVID-19 infections increased and the 
sanitary restrictions were tightened again , the global recovery slowed down in 2020 Q4. 
The situation deteriorated mainly in the services se ctor, while industr ial activity 
continued to grow. At the same time, inflation in the global economy remains low. 
Forecasts point to a f all in GDP in the euro area in 2020 Q4. The central banks of the 
major economies are keeping interest rates low and conducting asset purchases. 
In recent months, expectations that vaccinations will hav e a positive impact on the 
further course of the pandem ic ha ve contributed to some improvement in global 
financial market sentiment, leading to an increase in the prices of some financial assets. 
At the same t ime, the prices of some commodities, including oil, increased in the global 
markets. 
In Poland, the ri se in COVID -19 infections and the tightening of the pandemic 
restrictions in 2020 Q4 had a negative impact on economic activity, particularly in part of 
the services sector. October and November saw a drop in retail sales. The continued 
growth in indus trial output suggests that the situation in this sector is relatively 
favourable. Current forecasts indicate that annual GDP growth in 2 020 Q4 remained 
negative and was most likely lower than in the previous quarter. 
The labour market data for November poi nt to a stabilisation of average employment 
and annual growth of average wages in the enterprise sector. At the same time, inflation 
in December – according t o the Statistics Poland flash estimate – stood at 2.3% y/y 
(compared to 3.0% y/y in November). 
 
 
It can be expected that following the fall in GDP in 2020, economic activity will 
recover in 2021, although the scale of the recovery will mainly depend on the 
epidemiological situation and the related restrictions. The further course of the pandemic 
and its impact on the economic situation in Poland and abroad remain the main sources 
of uncertainty for the economic outlook in Poland. 
The economic policy measures, includ ing the easing of NBP’s monetary policy, will 
have a positive impact on the economic situation. However, growth in economic activity 
may be limited by the heightened uncertainty and the weaker sentiment of economic 
agents than before the pandemic, which wi ll result in a significant slowdown in 
investment growth. The pace of economic recovery may also be reduced by the lack of a 
visible and more durable zloty exchange rate adjustment to the global pandemic shock 
and to the monetary policy easing introduced by NBP. 
NBP will continue to purchase government securities and government -guaranteed 
debt securities on the secondary market as part of the structural open market operations. 
These operations are aimed at changing the long -term liquidity structure in the b anking 
sector, ensuring the liquidity in the secondary markets for the purcha sed securities and 
enhancing the impact of the NBP interest rate cuts on the economy, i.e. strengthening the 
monetary policy transmission mechanism. In ord er to strengthen the imp act of NBP’s 
monetary policy easing on the economy, NBP may also intervene in the foreign exchange 
market. The timing and scale of the measures taken by NBP will depend on the market 
conditions. Furthermore, NBP will also continue to offer bill discoun t credit ai med at 
refinancing loans granted to enterprises by banks. 
NBP’s monetary polic y mitigate s the negative economic impact of the pandemic, 
supports economic activity and stabilises inflation at the level consistent with NBP’s 
medium-term inflation target. Due to its positive impact on the fi nancial situation of 
debtors, it is also conducive to the strengthening of financial system stability.