CBR Quarterly Inflation Review - Q1 2011
Central bank: cbr | Type: quarterly_review | Date: 2011-03-31

THE CENTRAL BANK
OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
(BANK OF RUSSIA)
Quarterly
Inflation
Review
2011 Q1
Research and Information Department
The electronic version of Quarterly Inflation Review is available on the Bank of Russia's website:

Contents
Introduction. .................................................................................................................3
Inflation.Dynamics. ........................................................................................................4
Consumer prices ...................................................................................................................... 4
Housing prices .......................................................................................................................... 6
Producer prices ........................................................................................................................ 6
Foreign trade ............................................................................................................................ 8
Demand ................................................................................................................................. 10
Supply .................................................................................................................................... 12
Employment and unemployment ............................................................................................... 13
Monetary.Conditions...................................................................................................14
Exchange rate ........................................................................................................................ 14
Interest rates .......................................................................................................................... 16
Asset prices ........................................................................................................................... 20
Monetary aggregates .............................................................................................................. 20
Credit aggregates ................................................................................................................... 22
Bank.of.Russia.press.releases.on.monetary.policy.measures..
in.January-April.2011.................................................................................................. 26
Statistical.Addendum.................................................................................................. 31
2011 Q1 3
Introduction
In January-March 2011, output growth was
registered in most of the major types of economic
activity. The growth of world prices for energy
products and the improved terms of trade allowed
Russia to expand exports, maintain a strong bal -
ance of payments and boost international re -
serves.
The number of people employed in the
economy increased and the unemployment rate
fell noticeably but was still above the pre-crisis
level. The expansion of consumer demand con -
tributed to economic growth. At the same time,
investment activity remained low and fixed capital
investment was below the level registered in the
same period a year earlier. Demand was estimated
to remain below the potential output level, which
restricted the growth of consumer prices.
The increase in consumer prices was also
restrained by the appreciation of the ruble. The
growth of food prices, especially vegetable and
fruit prices, tended to slow down, which sug -
gested the weakening of the supply shock in the
food market caused by the drought in the summer
of 2010. However , inflation remained fairly high
at the beginning of 2011. From the second half
of 2011, annualised inflation is expected to slow
down.
In the first quarter of 2011, the Bank of Rus-
sia continued its gradual monetary policy tighten-
ing, which was started in December 2010. The
Bank of Russia’s efforts to gradually raise required
reserve ratios and interest rates on its operations
were attributable to the persisting inflation risks
caused by monetary factors.
The Bank of Russia raised the refinancing rate
and interest rates on some of its operations by 0.5
percentage points in January-April 2011. While
credit institutions had a large amount of free liq -
uid funds, money market rates edged up as a re -
sult of measures taken by the Bank of Russia but
stayed near the lower limit of the Bank of Russia
interest rate band. High inflationary expectations
and instability in foreign markets contributed to
some growth in interest rates in the Russian capi-
tal market.
In efforts to make the exchange rate-setting
mechanism more flexible, the Bank of Russia wid-
ened from March 1, 2011 the operational band
of permissible fluctuations in the ruble value of the
bi-currency basket and decreased the amount of
cumulative interventions necessary for the band
shift.
As interest rates remained low and banks’
deposit base increased, bank lending continued
to expand in the first quarter of 2011. The contri-
bution of credit activity to the expansion of broad
money supply was considerable and continued
to grow. The increase in the Bank of Russia’s net
foreign assets was also an important source of
money supply growth. The role of the budgetary
factor in money supply dynamics decreased con -
siderably as compared with the previous year.
From September 2010, annualised growth in
ruble supply was observed to slow down gradu -
ally and this trend continued into the first quarter
of 2011. The seasonally-adjusted monthly rates
of growth in monetary aggregate M2 were also
observed to decrease in the first quarter of 2011.
The aggregate money supply grew in late 2009
and in 2010 to the level exceeding the rates of
growth in the demand for money, which testi -
fied to increased inflation risks attributable to the
monetary factors. However , current monetary dy-
namics may create pre-requisites for a gradual re-
duction in these risks.
Therefore, the growth of prices is likely to
slow down in the second half of the year. The cur-
rent monetary policy tightening is expected to
contain inflation processes.
4 2011 Q1
es of goods and services included in the core infla-
tion calculation in the first quarter of 2011, ac -
counted for an esti mated 2.0 percentage points,
or 52.3%, of the inflation rate as against 1.2
percentage points, or 37.4%, in January-March
2010.
Food prices excluding vegetable and fruit
prices grew by 3.5% in January-March 2011, as
against 2.3% in the first quarter of 2010. Growth
in the prices of this group of food products ac -
counted for an estimated 1.2 percentage points,
or 31.9%, of the inflation rate in the first quarter
of 2011, as against an estimated 0.8 percentage
points, or 25.2%, in the first quarter of 2010.
Inflation Dynamics
Consumer prices
According to the Federal State Statistics Serv-
ice (Rosstat), consumer prices rose by 3.8% in
January-March 2011 or by 0.6 percentage points
more as compared with the same period of 2010.
Year on year , consumer prices increased by 9.5%
in March 2011 or by 3.0 percentage points as
compared with the value of this indicator in March
2010.
Inflation accelerated in January-March 2011
largely due to core inflation, which equalled 2.5%
in the first quarter of 2011, as against 1.5% in
the same period a year earlier. Growth in the pric-Growth in the pric-
Consumer price inflation (%)
Growth
March 2011 on December 2010 March 2010 on December 2009 Change, percentage points
Prices of goods and services, total 3.8 3.2 Acceleration of growth by 0.6
of which:
– food prices 4.8 3.8 Acceleration of growth by 1.0
– food prices, excluding vegetable and fruit prices 3.5 2.3 Acceleration of growth by 1.2
– non-food goods prices 1.7 0.9 Acceleration of growth by 0.8
– prices of paid services provided to households 5.2 5.4 Slowing of growth by 0.2
Prices of goods and services included in core inflation calculation 2.5 1.5 Acceleration of growth by 1.0
Source: Rosstat.
Inflation Dynamics
2011 Q1 5
The most significant increase in basic food
prices excluding vegetable and fruit prices in the
first quarter of 2011 was registered in the prices of
groats and beans (16.8%), sunflower oil (6.6%)
and granulated sugar (6.5%). In January-March
2010, the prices of these food products went up
by 2.4%, 1.3% and 10.0%, respectively. Growth
rates in the prices of other basic food products
were higher in January-March 2011, than in the
same period a year earlier. The prices of pasta in-
creased by 3.4%, whereas in the first quarter of
2010 they fell by 0.7%.
Vegetable and fruit prices increased by
15.8% in the first quarter of 2011 or by 2.2
percentage points less, than in the same period
of 2010. Growth in vegetable and fruit prices in
January-March 2011 accounted for an estimated
0.7 percentage points, or 17.3%, of the overall
increase in consumer prices. In the first quarter
of 2010, growth in vegetable and fruit prices ac -
counted for 0.6 percentage points, or 20.6%, of
overall consumer price growth.
Overall, food prices increased by 4.8% in
January-March 2011, as compared with 3.8% in
the same period last year.
Growth in non-food goods prices acceler -
ated to 1.7% in January-March 2011 from 0.9%
in the same period of 2010. The increase in non-
food goods prices accounted for an estimated
0.6 percentage points, or 15.5%, of the headline
inflation in January-March 2011 (as compared
with 0.3 percentage points or 10.4% in the first
quarter of 2010). The biggest growth was regis -
tered in the prices of tobacco products (by 6.5%
as compared with 4.9% in January-March 2010).
The growth in the prices of fabrics, clothing, un -
derwear , and also knitwear and footwear did not
exceed 2.1%. The prices of petrol and medicine
went up by 1.7% and 2.5%, respectively (in Jan-
uary-March 2010, petrol prices fell by 0.6% and
the prices of medicine went down by 1.4%).
The prices of paid services provided to house-
holds grew by 5.2% in January-March 2011, as
against 5.4% in January-March 2010, and ac -
counted for an estimated 1.3 percentage points,
or 35.3%, of the headline consumer price growth
(this compares with 1.4 percentage points, or
43.9%, in the first quarter of 2010).
Administered prices of paid services grew
by an estimated 8.2% in January-March 2011,
which was by 1.6 percentage points slower , than
in the same period last year. Housing and public
utility prices rose by 10.3% in the first quarter of
2011, as against 11.5% in January-March 2010.
Passenger transport fees grew by 3.0% in the first
quarter of 2011, as against 3.5% in January-
March 2010.
There was a slowing of growth in the prices
of many types of services included in the core in -
flation calculation in January-March 2011. The
prices of foreign travel services went down by
0.5% in the first quarter of 2011 (3.9% in Janu-
ary-March 2010).
Food price inflation (%)
Growth
March 2011 on December 2010 March 2010 on December 2009 Change, percentage points
Foodstuffs 4.8 3.8 Acceleration of growth by 1.0
Bread and bakery products 5.3 0.6 Acceleration of growth by 4.7
Groats and beans 16.8 2.4 Acceleration of growth by 14.4
Pasta 3.4 -0.7 –
Meat and poultry 3.5 0.0 Acceleration of growth by 3.5
Fish and seafood 4.1 1.7 Acceleration of growth by 2.4
Milk and dairy products 2.8 3.6 Slowing of growth by 0.8
Butter 2.8 5.2 Slowing of growth by 2.4
Sunflower oil 6.6 1.3 Acceleration of growth by 5.3
Granulated sugar 6.5 10.0 Slowing of growth by 3.5
Vegetables and fruit 15.8 18.0 Slowing of growth by 2.2
Alcoholic beverages 2.7 3.7 Slowing of growth by 1.0
Source: Rosstat.
6 2011 Q1
Growth in the prices of paid services provided
to households in January-March 2011 exceeded
by 1.9 percentage points the overall growth in the
prices of goods (by 3.0 percentage points in Jan-
uary-March 2010).
According to Rosstat data, consumer price
growth in all federal districts of Russia in January-
March 2011 was faster than in the same period
last year.
Estimates show that the difference between
the constituent territories of the Russian Federa -
tion in terms of the price of a fixed set of goods
and services used by the Federal State Statistics
Service for interregional comparisons of the pur -
chasing power of the population narrowed in
March 2011. Specifically, the regional difference
ratio1 decreased to 37.8% in March 2011 from
38.4% in December 2010.
The rates of growth in food prices, exclud -
ing vegetable and fruit prices, ranged from 2.9%
to 4.3% in the federal districts in January-March
2011. The rates of growth in non-food goods
prices changed within a considerably smaller
range as they varied from 1.3% to 2.3% in the
period under review. The rates of growth in the
prices of paid services provided to households
ranged from 4.2% to 5.5%.
The rates of growth in vegetable and fruit
prices differed significantly by region. For exam -
1 The regional difference ratio is calculated by the Bank of
Russia as the difference between the price of a fixed set of
goods and services in the most and least expensive regions
relative to the national average cost of the set.
ple, in the Far Eastern Federal District these prices
rose by 10.2%, whereas in the Urals Federal Dis-
trict they grew by 18.9%.
Housing prices
Housing prices increased by 0.5% in the pri-
mary market and by 1.3% in the secondary mar-
ket in January-March 2011 from December of
previous year. In the same period of 2010, hous-
ing prices grew by 0.6% in the primary market
and by 1.0% in the secondary market.
In January-March 2011, housing prices dy -
namics were influenced by some rebound in the
real estate market amid the contraction of com -
missioned housing. Specifically, the floor space
commissioned in January-March 2011 contract -
ed by 2.2% as compared with the same period of
2010 (it decreased by 8.9% last year).
Producer prices
Industrial producer prices rose by 6.9% in
January-March 2011, as against 2.7% in the
same period a year earlier. The acceleration of
growth in producer prices was attributable to the
increase in mining and quarrying prices. Producer
prices in this sector grew by 13.1% in January-
March 2011, whereas in the same period of 2010
they fell by 2.6%. Producer prices in the mining
and quarrying of energy producing materials in -
creased by 13.3% in the first quarter of 2011 (in
January-March 2010, they declined by 3.2%).
Price growth in electricity, gas and water
supply slowed down by 1.5 percentage points
to 11.1% in January-March 2011, as compared
with the same period last year.
Producer prices in the manufacturing indus -
tries grew by 3.8% in January-March 2011, as
was the case in the first quarter of 2010. The most
significant price growth was registered in the pro-
duction of coke where prices increased by 11.5%
(by 19.5% in January-March 2010). Producer
prices in the output of petroleum products fell by
0.4% (they increased by 2.9% in January-March
2010). Growth in consumer goods producer pric-
es accelerated. Specifically, producer price growth
accelerated by 9.9 percentage points to 11.3%
in the textile and textile products industry and by
1.9 percentage points to 2.8% in the production
of foodstuffs, including beverages, and tobacco
products in January-March 2011 year on year.
Inflation Dynamics
2011 Q1 7
period last year. Crop grower prices increased by
11.6% as compared with 5.2% in January-March
2010. Grain prices grew by 11.2% and sun -
flower prices by 7.2% (in January-March 2010,
grain producer prices decreased by 0.3%, while
sunflower producer prices increased by 12.1%,
respectively). Livestock producer prices went up
1.9% (as against 3.8% in January-March 2010).
The most rapid growth was registered in milk pro-
ducer prices, which grew by 3.8% (by 29.1% in
January-March 2010). Egg producer prices fell by
2.6% (they increased by 15.5% in the first quar-
ter of 2010). Cattle and poultry producer prices
rose by 1.7% (in January-March 2010, they de -
creased by 2.5%).
Producer prices in the production of leather , leath-
er goods and footwear increased by 2.2% (they
fell by 1.2% in January-March 2010).
Freight transportation charges increased by
4.3% in January-March 2011, as against 21.9%
in the same period of 2010. Railway transport
fares went up 7.5% as against 9.4% a year earlier.
Communication fees for corporate entities
grew by 3.4% in January-March 2011, as against
3.6% in the first quarter of 2010.
Producer prices of building materials grew by
1.7% in the first quarter of 2011 (they increased
by 0.6% in the same period of 2010).
Agricultural producer prices grew by 6.2% in
January-March 2011, as against 4.3% in the same
8 2011 Q1
in some countries of North Africa and the Middle
East. The growth of world oil prices was also fa -
cilitated by the upward revision of forecasts on the
global demand for oil, especially from China, and
the channelling of considerable funds into com -
modity markets for investment purposes. The in -
crease in US commercial oil inventories restrained
world oil price growth. As a result, the price of
Urals crude rose by 36.8% in January-March
2011, year on year , to $102.6 per barrel. Natural
gas prices in Europe increased by 6.8%.
The petroleum products price trend mostly
fol lowed that of the oil price. In January-March
2011, petroleum product prices grew by 30% on
average as compared with the same period last
year (the price of petrol rose by 27%, diesel fuel
by 38% and fuel oil by 22%).
Foreign trade
In 2011 Q1, the price situation for major
Russian export commodities 2 in world markets
continued to improve. World energy prices grew
by an average of 28% in January-March 2011,
as compared with the same period last year , while
non-energy prices gained 22%.
World oil prices in January-March 2011
were largely influenced by the armed conflict in
Libya and the aggravation of the political situation
2 Average prices are based on data reported daily by the fol-
lowing news agencies and exchanges: Reuters for oil, Finan-
cial Times for petroleum products (petrol, diesel fuel and fuel
oil) and sugar. Ferrous metal prices have been gauged on the
basis of price indices, while prices of natural gas, non-ferrous
metals (aluminium, copper and nickel) and other commodi-
ties are monthly averages published by the World Bank and
the IMF .
Inflation in countries trading with Russia1
Inflation in the countries carrying much weight in the structure of Russian imports increased to 1.8% in
January-March 2011 (March on December of the previous year) from 1.3% in the same period of 2010. The
acceleration of inflation in the countries trading with Russia in January-March 2011 was largely the result of
growth in energy prices. Food prices continued to rise. According to data of the Food and Agriculture Organisa-
tion of the United Nations (FAO), the weighted average of world prices for food products increased by 3.7% in
January-March 2011 from previous December due to the growth of grain, meat and dairy prices. In February
2011, the FAO food price index registered the highest level for the entire period of observations. The impact of
growing demand on inflation gradually intensified in the countries trading with Russia.
The consumer price headline growth in the eurozone and in the United States accelerated in January-March
2011, year on year, largely as a result of the rise in energy prices. Fundamental factors continued to restrain
inflation processes both in the eurozone and the US
economy. However, the faster increase in consumer
prices in January-March 2011, as compared with
the same period last year reflected changes in the
rates of growth in the prices of goods and services
included in the calculation of the core consumer
price index (excluding energy and food prices).
In Belarus and Ukraine, growth in the prices
of paid services (especially housing and public util -
ity charges) accelerated sharply in January-March
2011, as compared with the same period last year.
However, this acceleration did not affect the overall
consumer price growth in the Ukrainian economy
due to the effect of factors that restrained consumer
demand and increased the supply of food products.
In Belarus and Kazakhstan, the growth of food prices
had a considerable impact on inflation processes.
In China, the growth of food prices along with the
increase in paid service prices was also a major fac -
tor causing inflationary pressure to remain relatively
strong.
1 According to data reported by national statistics agencies of Russia’s trading partners.
Inflation Dynamics
2011 Q1 9
Ferrous metal prices continued to recover in
January-March 2011 and increased by 19% as
compared with the same period last year. World
non-ferrous metal prices were influenced by the
growing demand for these metals, especially from
China, and also by investment demand. As a re -
sult, the price of aluminium grew by 16% and the
price of copper and nickel – by 33% and 35%,
respectively, in January-March 2011, as com -
pared with the same period last year.
Food and agricultural raw material prices
changed both ways in world markets in January-
March 2011. Grain prices increased in January
and February 2011 amid growing demand and the
contraction of world grain stocks. In March, the
situation in the grain market changed: the prices
of wheat and maize went down largely due to the
earthquake in Japan, the world’s largest grain im-
porter , which suspended grain purchases. World
grain prices increased by almost 60% on aver -
age in January-March 2011, as compared with
the same period last year (the price of American
wheat went up by 69% and Canadian wheat – by
61%, while the price of American maize rose by
74% and Canadian barely – by 38%).
The steady growth of meat consumption,
especially in Asian countries, amid the decrease
in the world’s livestock population, and also high
fodder prices, pushed up meat prices. In the first
quarter of 2011, beef and pork prices increased
10 2011 Q1
Demand
Domestic demand
The production of goods and services ex -
panded in the first quarter of 2011 largely as a
result of higher consumer activity. However , the
contraction of fixed capital investment at the be -
ginning of the year suggested that economic re -
covery was unstable.
The slowing of growth in wages and social
transfers amid accelerating inflation in January-
March 2011, as compared with the same pe -
riod last year , affected household real disposable
money income, which decreased by 2.9% in the
period under review. The household propensity to
consume grew by 5.2 percentage points in Janu-
ary-March 2011, year on year , to 78.2%. House-
hold real consumer spending increased by an esti-
mated 4.2% in the first quarter of 2011, as com-
pared with the same period last year. The share of
household spending on the purchase of foreign
currency in the structure of household money in-in the structure of household money in -
come use increased by 0.8 percentage points to
4.0% in the first quarter. As interest rates on retail
deposits remained low, the household propensity
to hold organised savings decreased.
Household final consumption expenditures
increased by 3.0% in 2010. The improved situa-The improved situa-
tion in the labour market and the increase in con-labour market and the increase in con-
by 30% and 17%, respectively, while poultry
prices grew by 2% as compared with the same
period last year.
The decrease in oil crop harvests as a result
of unfavourable weather conditions and the con-unfavourable weather conditions and the con-
traction of their stocks caused a rise in the prices
of vegetable fats in the world market in January-
February 2011. In March 2011, these prices
edged down amid the expectations of better
weather conditions and higher harvests. P alm oil
prices increased by 55% in January-March 2011,
as compared with the same period last year.
The growth of sugar prices continued in the
world market in January 2011 due to low sugar -
cane harvests as a result of unfavourable weather
conditions in many sugar-producing countries
and the contraction in global sugar stocks. In
February-March 2011, world sugar prices started
to decline on the expectations of new harvests
in Brazil and India, and also due to lower world
sugar demand as a result of high sugar prices. As
a result, raw sugar prices grew by 27% and re -
fined sugar prices increased by 20% in January-
March 2011, as compared with the same period
last year.
The terms of Russia’s trade im proved in Jan-
uary-March 2011, as compared with the same
period last year as export prices grew faster than
import prices.
International trade
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has estimated that the world consumption of oil in creased by 2.6%,
in January-March 2011, as compared with the same period last year, which was largely attributable to the
growth of consumption in emerging market economies, especially in China and other Asian countries. In Euro -
pean countries that are members of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), oil
consumption was unchanged from the first quarter of 2010. The IEA predicts global oil consumption to rise by
1.6% in 2011.
The average price of Brent, Dubai and West T exas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose to $99.7 per barrel in
January-March 2011 from $77.0 per barrel in the first quarter of 2010 (by 29.4%). In April 2011, the IMF
upgraded its 2011 forecast on the average price of the three crude oil benchmarks to $107.2 per barrel as com-
pared with its January forecast of $89.5 per barrel. Consensus forecasts by Thomson-Reuters and Bloomberg
(April-May 2011) suggest that the average price of Brent crude may equal $105.5-109.2 per barrel in 2011,
as compared with $79.6 per barrel in 2010.
According to Eurostat data, EU import quantities of mineral fuel and lubricants declined by 1.3% in Janu-
ary-February 2011, as compared with the same period of 2010, while the average unit value of the imports of
these commodities1 increased by 34.9%. According to IMF data, the price of Russian natural gas exported to
Germany was on average by 20.6% higher in January-March 2011, than in the same period last year.
1 The average unit value of imports is the ratio of changes in the value of imports of particular commodities to changes in the import quanti-
ties.
Inflation Dynamics
2011 Q1 11
sumer activity stimulated growth in retail trade
turnover (by 4.7%) and the value of paid services
provided to households (by 2.3%). The share of
imported goods in the retail trade turnover grew
by an estimated 3.0 per centage points in 2010,
year on year , to 44%. The share of non-food im-
ports grew by 5.9 percentage points to 53.5%,
while the share of food imports was unchanged
at 34%.
The imports of goods grew rapidly in Janu -
ary-March 2011 amid the expansion of domestic
demand and the ruble’s appreciation. As a result,
in the first quarter of 2011, imports exceeded
the pre-crisis level registered in the first quarter
of 2008. The imports of goods grew mostly as a
result of the expansion of import quantities. The
increase in import prices contributed less to the
growth of imports in the period under review. The
imports of investment goods grew faster than the
imports of food products in January-March 2011.
The biggest growth was registered in the imports
of motor cars and trucks. The imports of goods
(according to the balance of payments estimate
as of April 5, 2011) grew by 40.9% in January-
March 2011, year on year , to $64.4 billion.
In 2010, general government expenditure
on final consumption increased by 1.4%. Accord-
ing to the Federal Treasury’s data, budget expen-
diture decreased to 31.0% of GDP in January-
March 2011, as against 33.6% in the first quarter
of 2010. Non-interest expenditure accounted for
30.2% of GDP as against 32.7% in the same pe-
riod last year.
In January-March 2011, the general govern-
ment registered a budget surplus of 7.1% of GDP ,
which represents an increase of 4.6 percentage
points as compared with the same period last year.
The improvement of the Russian budget balance,
which may continue in the medium term, reflects
the Russian govern ment’s consistent tightening of
its fiscal policy for the purpose of strengthening
macroeconomic stability and long-term sustain -
ability of public finance.
Gross fixed capital formation expanded by
6.1% in 2010. Fixed capital investment decreased
by 1.5% in January-March 2011, as compared
with the same period last year.
Investments in machinery, equipment and
transport vehicles accounted for about a third of
total investments in 2010. At the same time, the
share of investments made to acquire imported
equipment contracted from 2009 by 2.7 percent-
age points to 18%. Imports of machinery, equip-
ment and transport vehicles grew by 40.0% in
2010.
Fixed capital investment was financed mostly
by raised funds (58.8%) in 2010. The share of
own funds used to finance fixed capital invest -
ment expanded. Bank loans accounted for 8.7%,
a contraction by 1.6 per centage points from
2009.
GDP expenditure
(growth as % of corresponding period of previous year)
2009 2010
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Full year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Full year
GDP -9.2 -11.2 -8.6 -2.6 -7.8 3.5 5.0 3.1 4.5 4.0
Final consumption -0.3 -3.6 -5.8 -4.1 -3.5 0.3 3.8 4.0 1.9 2.5
of which:
– households -0.2 -4.9 -7.8 -5.7 -4.8 -0.5 4.7 5.1 2.7 3.0
Gross capital formation -53.6 -56.4 -37.3 -20.1 -41.0 0.8 27.9 29.8 39.3 28.4
Net exports 16.5 66.5 107.7 60.8 56.6 35.1 -36.2 -90.8 -76.9 -42.8
Source: Rosstat.
12 2011 Q1
As quantities of imported goods and services
grew faster than exported quantities, net exports
of goods and services fell by 42.8% in 2010.
Foreign demand
The value of exports increased by 22.0% to
$112.6 billion in January-March 2011 (accord -
ing to the balance of payments estimate as of April
5, 2011), as a result of the rise in prices. Export
quantities slightly contracted in the first quarter of
2011, as compared with the same period last year
due to the decrease in the supplies of oil, petro -
leum products, ferrous metals, copper and some
other commodities. At the same time, growth was
registered in the export quantities of natural gas,
aluminium, nickel, mineral fertilizer , unprocessed
and processed timber and motor cars. The growth
of exports to EU member countries continued to
slow down in terms of value. The share of the EU
member countries in Russia’s commodity exports
decreased by 5 percentage points in January-
March 2011, as compared with the same period
last year. In the structure of Russia’s commodity
exports to EU member countries, the share of the
Netherlands, Italy and Germany as the principal
importers of Russian products decreased. Growth
in exports rates to the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-
operation (APEC) member countries was consid-
erably faster than overall export growth rates. The
share of APEC member countries in Russia’s com-
modity exports grew by 2.5 percentage points.
The biggest increase in this group of countries was
registered in the share of China and the United
States. Exports to CIS member countries increased
faster than overall exports and largely expanded
due to growth in exports to Ukraine and Belarus.
Supply
In January-March 2011, output in the key
sectors of economy expanded by 4.3% (by 6.4%
in January-March 2010). Production growth was
registered in most of the major types of economic
activity, except wholesale trade. Output grew by
0.7% in agriculture and by 1.6% in construc -
tion, while transport freight turnover increased by
3.7%.
Industrial output grew by 5.9% in January-
March 2011 (by 9.5% in the first quarter of
2010). High rates of output growth were regis -
tered in the manufacturing sector (by 10.6%),
especially the production of transport vehicles
(by 59.6%) and rubber and plastic products (by
20.6%).
Output in the mining and quarrying rose by
3.3%; particularly marked growth was registered
in the mining and quarrying of metal ores (by
6.4%). Oil output expanded by 0.8% and gas
production grew by 0.4%.
There was a rise in the output of major live -
stock products in January-March 2011, includ -
ing cattle and poultry for slaughter (by 3.2%).
The output of meat and meat products grew by
Economic growth in foreign countries1
GDP in the group of countries carrying much weight in the structure of Russian exports increased by an
estimated 4.3% in January-March 2011, as compared with the same period last year (in the first quarter of
2010, it increased by 3.3%). Preliminary data show that GDP grew by 2.3% in the United States, by 2.5% in the
eurozone and by 9.7% in China. Positive trends in the economies of Russia’s trading partners were attributable to
the recovery of consumption and fixed capital investment and the gradual resumption of growth in banks’ credit
investments. The economies of Russia’s trading partners continued to demonstrate high GDP growth rates under
the impact of the statistical base effect in the first quarter of 2011, as compared with the same period last year.
The IMF’s forecast released in April 2011 suggests that the rates of growth in the global production of
goods and services will fall from 5.0% in 2010 to 4.4% in 2011. The economies of Russia’s trading partners
will start to show some slowing of GDP growth from the second quarter of 2011 relative to the corresponding
quarter of 2010 under the impact of the statistical base effect. The IMF predicts GDP to grow by 2.8% in the
United States, by 1.6% in the eurozone and by 9.6% in China in 2011. The recovery of the labour and credit
markets, the higher capacity utilisation rate and the low level of real interest rates will stimulate further growth
in consumption and investment in the world’s advanced economies. China’s GDP growth will slow down under
the impact of monetary policy tightening intended to prevent the overheating of China’s economy and financial
market. According to the IMF forecast, international trade in goods and services will expand by 7.4% in 2011.
1 According to data compiled by the national statistics agencies of Russia’s trading partners.
Inflation Dynamics
2011 Q1 13
of goods. Estimates show that the number of em-
ployed in the services sector increased in 2010, as
compared with the previous year but continued to
fall in the manufacturing sector.
Real wages grew by 0.5% in January-March
2011. Estimates show that real wages increased
slower than labour productivity in the period un -
der review.
Significant differences in wage levels between
various types of economic activity remained this
year. In January-February 2011, the highest av -
erage monthly wage was registered in the finan -
cial sector (50,845 rubles) and in the mining and
quarrying of energy producing materials (46,112
rubles); it exceeded the national average by a fac-
tor 2.5 and 2.2, respectively. The lowest wages
were registered in agriculture, hunting and for -
estry (10,227 rubles), manufacture of textile
and textile products (7,510 rubles), and the pro-
duction of leather , leather goods and footwear
(10,950 rubles); these made up 49%, 36% and
53% of the national average wage, respectively.
Below-average wages remained in activity types
that were largely financed from the budget (edu-
cation and other utilities, social and personal ser-
vices, healthcare) and also in the manufacturing
industries, wholesale and retail trade and car and
household goods repair services.
The total number of unemployed contracted
in January-March 2011 by 13.4% to 7.1% of the
economically active population as of the end of
March (8.6% as of the end of March 2010).
7.5%, of which the production of meat, includ -
ing by-products, rose by 4.6%. The contraction
in grain stocks affects the production of bread and
bakery products, flour and groats, which, in turn,
exerts pressure on consumer price inflation.
Industrial production ca pacity utilisation ratio
increased but was still below the pre-crisis level.
According to data released by the Russian Eco- to data released by the Russian Eco-to data released by the Russian Eco- data released by the Russian Eco-data released by the Russian Eco- released by the Russian Eco-the Russian Eco- Russian Eco-Russian Eco- Eco-Eco-
nomic Barometer , the industrial production ca- Barometer , the industrial production ca-Barometer , the industrial production ca -
pacity utilisation ratio stood at 74% on average in
January-February 2011, as against 70% in Janu-
ary-February 2010.
In February 2011, the highest industrial pro-
duction capacity utilisation ratio was registered
in the light industry (83%) and the timber and
wood-working industry (82%), whereas the low-
est rate was observed in the production of build -
ing materials (66%) and metallurgy (62%).
In January-March 2011, GDP grew by 4.1%,
as compared with the same period last year. The
output gap remained negative, according to es -
timates.
Employment and unemployment
The number of people employed in the econ-
omy increased by 1.8% in January-March 2011,
whereas in the same period last year it fell by
0.4%.
Labour productivity increased by an esti -
mated 3.4% in 2010, as compared with 2009,
and its growth in the manufacturing sector was
faster than in the services sector. Growth in the
output of services was slower than in the output
14 2011 Q1
The nominal ruble/US dollar rate in -
creased by 5.0% in the first quarter of 2011,
whereas in the fourth quarter of 2010 it fell by
0.3%. In the period under review, the ruble grew
against the US currency in each of the three
months: it gained 2.6% in January, 2.7% in Feb-
ruary and 3.0% in March. As of April 1, 2011, the
official rate of the ruble against the US dollar was
28.5162. In April 2011, amid the persistently fa-
vourable energy price dynamics, the nominal ru -
ble/dollar rate gained another 1.2%. As a result,
the official rate of the ruble against the US dollar
stood at 27.5022 as of May 1, 2011.
The nominal ruble/euro rate increased by
4.3% in the first quarter of 2011 (it fell by 5.5%
in the fourth quarter of 2010). In January-March
2011, the appreciation of the ruble against the
single European currency in nominal terms was
observed to slow down: the ruble gained 1.1%
against the euro in January, 1.0% in February and
0.5% in March. As a result, the official rate of the
ruble against the euro stood at 40.3875 as of
April 1, 2011.
In April 2011, the nominal rate of the ru -
ble against the eurozone currency decreased by
1.9%. As a result, the official rate of the ruble
against the euro stood at 40.8078 as of May 1,
2011.
Exchange rate
In the first quarter of 2011, the domestic
foreign exchange market was characterised by
the appreciation of the ruble against major world
currencies as world prices for Russian export com-
modities continued to grow. The Bank of Russia’s
exchange rate policy was aimed at keeping the
ruble’s volatility within the established boundar -
ies. As part of its efforts consistently to raise the
flexibility of the exchange rate-setting mecha -
nism, the Bank of Russia widened symmetrically
from March 1, 2011, the operating floating range
of permissible fluctuations in the ruble value of the
bi-currency basket to 5 rubles from 4 rubles, and
also reduced the amount of cumulative interven -
tions, necessary for the band shift by 5 kopecks,
from $650 million to $600 million.
According to preliminary data, the current
account surplus stood at $31.8 billion in Janu -
ary-March 2011, as against $14.1 billion in the
fourth quarter of 2010. At the same time, a net
private capital outflow estimated at $21.3 bil -
lion was registered in the first quarter of 2011, as
compared with $21.5 billion in October-Decem -
ber 2010. Russia’s international reserves grew by
4.8% in January-March 2011 to $502.5 billion
as of April 1, 2011.
Monetary Conditions
Monetary Conditions
2011 Q1 15
The nominal effective rate of the ruble
against foreign currencies increased by 4.5%
in January-March 2011 (in the fourth quarter of
2010, it fell by 4.0%). The growth of the nominal
effective rate of the ruble in the reporting period
was as a whole comparable to the appreciation
The ruble value of the bi-currency bas -
ket reached 33.8583 rubles as of April 1, 2011.
During April 2011, the value of the operational
benchmark registered some insignificant short-
term fluctuations and amounted to 33.4897 ru -
bles as of May 1, 2011.
International currency market
The US dollar depreciated by about 6% against the euro in the international foreign exchange market in the
first quarter of 2011 (March on December 2010) due to the Federal Reserve’s additional measures of accom -
modative monetary policy, the risks of the US national debt growth, and also as a result of eurozone interest rate
hike expectations that increased in March. The unstable condition of public finances in some eurozone countries,
particularly in Portugal, remained a factor behind the dollar/euro rate volatility.
The currencies of most of Russia’s major trading partners (including China, Japan, the Republic of Korea,
Great Britain, Brazil and Kazakhstan) strengthened against the US dollar and depreciated against the euro. There
were no significant changes in the exchange rates of the Ukrainian hryvnia and the Indian rupee against the
US dollar. Likewise, the exchange rates of the Pol -
ish zloty, Swiss franc and some European currencies
tightly pegged to the euro did not change consider -
ably against the single European currency. The offi -
cial rate of the Belarussian ruble against the US dollar
also did not change significantly. Owing to increased
pressure on the national currency, Belarus imposed
some restrictions on foreign exchange transactions
and established a requirement for banks in March to
reserve Belarussian rubles 30 calendar days in ad -
vance for the purchase of foreign currency at auc -
tions at the Belarussian Currency and Stock Exchange
(eventually, this requirement was lifted after the en-
forcement of some other changes to the procedure
of conducting transactions in the foreign exchange
market). The Turkish lira depreciated against the
world’s two leading currencies, while the currencies
of some EU countries outside the eurozone (Sweden,
Hungary, the Czech Republic and Romania) demon-
strated growth against the dollar and the euro.
16 2011 Q1
which was largely caused by the ruble’s weaken -
ing against the euro in the period under review.
Interest rates
Amid considerable inflationary pressure and
the existence of some risks for sustainable eco -
nomic growth, and also for the purpose of re -
straining an inflow of speculative foreign capital,
the Bank of Russia took decisions in February and
April 2011, to raise the refinancing rate and inter-
est rates on some of its operations. From February
28, 2011, the Bank of Russia raised the refinanc-
ing rate and the overnight credit rate to 8% per
annum and increased the overnight deposit rate
to 3% p.a. As a result, the Bank of Russia’s inter -
est rate band shifted upward by 0.25 percentage
points. From May 3, 2011, the Bank of Russia
raised interest rates on some of its operations by
another 0.25 percentage points. The smallest of
all possible interest rates, at which credit institu -
tions can be refinanced by the Bank of Russia (at
repo or Lombard credit auctions), now stand at
5.50% per annum.
Also, the Bank of Russia took decisions on
three occasions in 2011 to raise required reserve
ratios: from February 1, March 1 and April 1. As
a result, these ratios for credit institutions’ obliga-
tions to non-resident institutions were raised from
2.5% to 5.5% and for other obligations from
2.5% to 4%.
Interest rates on ruble-denominated inter-
bank loans extended for various terms fluctuated
of the ruble against the currency of the eurozone
countries, which currently account for over 40%
in Russia’s foreign trade.
The real ruble/US dollar rate increased by
8.0% in the first quarter of 2011 (in October-
December 2010, this growth was considerably
slower and amounted to 1.5%). The ruble’s real
appreciation against the US dollar in the fourth
quarter of 2010 was largely dictated by inter -
nal inflation, whereas in January-March 2011
the contribution by the nominal exchange rate
and the inflationary differential to the real ruble/
US dollar rate dynamics was more evenly spread.
Estimates show that in April 2011 the ruble con -
tinued to appreciate against the US dollar in real
terms and increased by 0.6%.
The real ruble/euro rate grew by 7.7% in
January-March 2011, after a 3.9% decrease in
the fourth quarter of 2010. The ratio of contribu-
tions by the ruble/euro nominal exchange rate
and Russia’s inflationary differential with euro -
zone states to the real ruble/euro rate dynamics
has been relatively stable since the beginning of
2011. Preliminary estimates show that the ruble
weakened by 2.3% in real terms against the sin -
gle European currency in April 2011.
The real effective rate of the ruble against
foreign currencies gained 7.3% in the period
under review (it slipped by 3.1% in the fourth
quarter of 2010). Preliminary estimates show
that the real effective rate of the ruble against for-
eign currencies decreased by 1.2% in April 2011,
Monetary Conditions
2011 Q1 17
within a relatively narrow horizontal band in Jan -
uary-March 2011. Fluctuations in the MIACR on
overnight ruble interbank loans amounted to 0.7
percentage points in the first quarter of 2011 (as
compared with 2.2 percentage points in October-
December 2010). The average quarterly MIACR
on overnight interbank ruble loans stood at 2.9%
p.a. as compared with 3.0% in the fourth quarter
of 2010. In April 2011, the MIACR on overnight
ruble interbank loans moved within the range of
2.9-4.6% p.a. The average MIACR on overnight
interbank ruble loans in April 2011 increased by
0.3 percentage points, month on month, to 3.3%
p.a. The interest rate on ruble interbank loans
placed by Russian banks for a term of 2-7 days
dropped from 2.9% p.a. in 2010 Q4 to 2.8% p.a.
Liquidity situation and Bank of Russia operations
In January-April 2011, the excess of liquidity remained in the banking sector as a whole: credit institutions
continued to keep their free funds on deposit accounts and in Bank of Russia bonds (OBRs). In the period under
review, credit institutions’ demand for Bank of Russia’s liquidity provision instruments was quite insignificant but
slightly increased in late April.
Bank of Russia average daily obligations to credit institutions on the liquidity absorption instruments in -
creased from about 1.2 trillion rubles in 2010 Q4 to 1.4 trillion rubles in January-March 2011, and dropped
to 1.1 trillion rubles in April 2011. Their structure also changed noticeably. The percentage ratio between the
obligations on deposit operations and obligations resulting from operations with OBRs changed from 32:68 in
the fourth quarter of 2010 to 61:39 in January-April 2011. Bank of Russia average daily claims to credit institu-
tions on instruments used to provide liquidity decreased roughly to 11 billion rubles in the first quarter of 2011,
and to 5 billion rubles in April 2011, whereas in October-December 2010 they amounted to 24 billion rubles.
In January-April 2011, the Bank of Russia made changes to the mechanisms of bank liquidity regulation.
From January 1, 2011, the Bank of Russia suspend -
ed holding five-week unsecured loan auctions and
three-month deposit auctions. From February 10,
2011, the Bank of Russia suspended operations to
extend loans against “non-market assets” or guaran-
tees with maturities from 91 to 180 days, and also
Lombard loans at fixed rates with a term of 30 days.
From 2011, the Bank of Russia started to tight-
en requirements for collaterals accepted for refinanc-
ing instruments. In particular, from January 1, 2011,
Bank of Russia List of Organisations must include
those organisations that have a minimum long-term
credit rating assigned by at least one international
rating agency at B-/B3, which is further increased to
B/B2 from April 1, and to B+/B1 from July 1. The
Bank of Russia also tightened the requirement for the
credit quality of debt obligations included in Bank of
Russia Lombard List – the minimum required interna-
tional credit rating assigned to their issuers (issues)
was raised to B/B2 from April 1, and to B+/B1 from
July 1.
18 2011 Q1
in 2011 Q1, and the rate on 8- to 30-day inter -
bank loans declined from 3.9% p.a. to 3.8% p.a.,
while the 1- to 3-month rate was unchanged at
4.6% p.a.
The average interest rate on short-term
household ruble deposits continued to decline
in the first quarter of 2011, as it dropped by 0.3
percentage points, quarter on quarter , to 5.3%
p.a. The interest rate on long-term household
deposits with terms ranging from 1 to 3 years in-
creased quite sharply in January 2011, but was
eventually observed to decrease gradually. The av-
erage long-term household deposit rate increased
by 0.3 percentage points in January-March 2011,
quarter on quarter , to 5.8% p.a.
The average short-term interest rate on the
ruble-denominated household loans fell by 0.9
percentage points in the first quarter of 2011,
quarter on quarter , to 25.1% p.a., while the
long-term household loan rate was unchanged at
17.5% p.a.
In January-March 2011, interest rates on
short-term and long-term ruble loans to non-
financial organisations changed both ways. The
average interest rate on short-term loans dropped
by 0.4 percentage points in the first quarter of
2011, quarter on quarter , to 8.7% p.a., while
the average long-term credit rate increased by
0.1 percentage points to 10.6% p.a. In January-
March 2011, the biggest fall (by 0.5 percentage
Monetary Conditions
2011 Q1 19
points) in the average interest rate was registered
on loans with a term of up to 1 month and with
terms from 3 to 6 months. The yield curve for
loans to non-financial organisations shifted down
in 2011 Q1, as compared with 2010 Q4 in the
up-to-1-year segment and rose in the over-3-
year segment. The rising yield curve sector ex -
tended from 6 months in the fourth quarter of
2010 to 1 year in the first quarter of 2011.
OFZ market yields changed both ways in
January-March 2011, with slightly downward
dynamics as the prevailing trend. The average
quarterly effective OFZ market portfolio indicator
(MPI)1 increased by 0.1 percentage point in Janu-
ary-March 2011, quarter on quarter , to 7.5% p.a.
As of the end of the first quarter of 2011, the OFZ
yield (the effective MPI) was unchanged from the
end of the fourth quarter of 2010 at 7.4% p.a.
The OFZ yield as of the end of April 2011, was
also unchanged from the end of the first quarter
of 2011. The average effective MPI dropped by
0.1 percentage point in April 2011, month on
month, to 7.3% p.a.
In January-April 2011, the OFZ yield curve
remained ascending, demonstrating slight chang-
es in its position. By the end of April 2011, the
government bond yield curve and its slope did not
demonstrate any significant shifts as compared
with the beginning of January 2011.
1 The average duration of the OFZ bond index portfolio
amounted to 3.9 years in the fourth quarter of 2010, and to
3.6 years in the first quarter of 2011.
Yields in the ruble regional and corporate
bonds market in January-April 2011 tended to
decline; their volatility slightly decreased in April
as compared with the first three months of 2011.
The average yield on regional bonds2 and the av-
erage yield on corporate bonds3 increased by 0.2
percentage points and 0.1 percentage point, re -
spectively, in January-March 2011, as compared
with the previous quarter , to 7.6% p.a. each. Re-
2 The average duration of the regional bonds index portfolio
amounted to 2.8 years in the fourth quarter of 2010, and in
the first quarter of 2011.
3 The average duration of the corporate bonds index portfolio
amounted to 1.6 years in the fourth quarter of 2010, and to
1.7 years in the first quarter of 2011.
20 2011 Q1
The Russian share prices demonstrated dif -
ferent dynamics in January-March 2011, de -
pending on the sector of the Russian economy.
Share prices were observed to grow in the chemi-
cal and petrochemical industry, the oil and gas and
telecommunications sectors in the first quarter of
2011, whereas share prices in other industries
went down.
In April 2011, the Russian share prices dem-
onstrated downward dynamics amid increased
uncertainty over price expectations of market
participants. As of April 29, 2011, the MICEX in-
dex fell by 4.0%, month on month, to 1,741.84
points and the RTS index was down by 0.8% to
2,026.94 points. In April 2011, share prices de -
creased in all the sectors of the Russian economy.
The most significant decrease in share prices was
registered in the electric power , machine-building
and consumer sectors, and also in the share prices
of credit institutions.
Monetary aggregates
In 2010, monetary aggregate M2 dem -
onstrated relatively high annual growth rates,
which exceeded 30%. At the same time, the
annual growth in ruble money supply started to
slow down gradually from September 2010, and
this slowdown continued into the first quarter of
2011. As a result, the M2 annual growth deceler-
ated to 26.5% as of April 1, 2011, from 31.1%
as of January 1, 2011. The seasonally adjusted
gional and corporate bond yields as of the end of
the first quarter of 2011, decreased by 0.2 per -
centage points and 0.6 percentage points from
the end of the fourth quarter of 2010, to 7.4%
p.a. and 7.2% p.a., respectively. In April 2011,
the average regional and corporate bond yields
fell by 0.2 percentage points and 0.3 percentage
points, month on month, to 7.3% p.a. and 7.1%
p.a., respectively.
Asset prices
The growth of major price indicators slowed
down in the Russian stock market in the first
quarter of 2011, as compared with the fourth
quarter of 2010, while their volatility increased.
Russian share prices demonstrated a downward
correction on many occasions in the period un -
der review, as instability in the world stock mar -
ket was seen to intensify from time to time. The
MICEX and RTS stock indices received support
from a rapid growth in world oil prices that eased
the effect of negative factors. In the last days of
March 2011, the MICEX and RTS indices reached
their record highs for the period since the start of
2011. As of March 31, 2011, the MICEX index
rose by 7.4%, quarter on quarter , to 1,813.59
points and the RTS index gained 15.5% and stood
at 2,044.20 points. The average MICEX and RTS
indices in the first quarter of 2011 exceeded the
previous quarter’s levels by 11.0% and 17.5%,
respectively.
Monetary Conditions
2011 Q1 21
The annual rate of growth in ruble non-fi -
nancial organisation deposits was observed to de-
crease quite steadily from May 2010. This trend
continued in the first quarter of 2011. As a result,
the annual rate of growth in non-financial organi-
sation deposits stood at 18% as of April 1, 2011,
as compared with 37.4% a year earlier.
Foreign currency deposits increased by 1.1%
in ruble terms in January-March 2011 (in the first
quarter of 2010, they fell by 4.1%). Nevertheless,
the level of dollarization of deposits 4 was consid-
4 The level of dollarization in this case is the share of foreign
currency deposits (in ruble terms) in the broad money.
monthly rates of growth in monetary aggregate
M2 also decreased in January-March 2011.
The highest rates of growth in the compo -
nents of monetary aggregate M2 were dem -
onstrated by the household deposits, which in -
creased by 2.6% in January-March 2011. At the
same time, their monthly growth rates decreased
noticeably in the first quarter of 2011, as com -
pared with the same period last year. As a result,
the annual growth in the ruble household deposits
slowed down in January-March 2011, to 36.5%
as of April 1, 2011, from 43.6% as of January 1,
2011.
22 2011 Q1
in January-March 2011. The rise in the Bank of
Russia’s net foreign assets was the second most
important factor that prompted money sup -
ply growth. The role of the budgetary factor in
money supply dynamics decreased noticeably as
compared with the previous year. The aggregate
money supply growth in late 2009 and in 2010
to the level exceeding the rates of growth in the
demand for money testified to increased inflation
risks attributable to the monetary factors. Never -
theless, the current trends in monetary indicators
may create pre-requisites for a gradual decrease
in these risks.
Credit aggregates
The growth of credit aggregates continued in
the first quarter of 2011. The debt on loans ex -
tended to non-financial organisations increased
by 2.2% over that period and the debt on loans
to households expanded by 2.6%. As a result,
the annual rate of growth in total debt on loans
erably lower in the first quarter of 2011, than in
the same period last year and stood at 16.2% as
of April 1, 2011 (19.0% as of April 1, 2010).
Net foreign currency purchases by households
through exchange offices totalled $3.4 billion in
the first quarter of 2011 (net sales of foreign cur-
rency equalled $0.95 billion in the first quarter
of 2010). According to Russia’s balance of pay -
ments preliminary estimates, the value of foreign
currency cash outside the banking system de -
creased by $0.4 billion in the first quarter of 2011
(it fell by $3.6 billion in the first quarter of 2010).
The annual rates of growth in the broad
money ranged within 24-25% for most of 2010.
From December 2010, this growth started to slow
down gradually and stood at 22.3% as of April
1, 2011. The dynamics of annualised 6-month
rates of growth in the M2X also testified to their
decrease in the first quarter of 2011.
The contribution of lending activity to the
growth of the broad money continued to increase
Sectoral structure of money supply
An analysis of the sectoral structure of money supply makes it possible to better understand the factors in-
fluencing the demand for money, and also to determine the contribution of these factors to overall money supply
growth at different time periods.
Available statistical data1 can help analyse broad money supply in various money-holding sectors (other
financial organisations, non-financial organisations and households) 2. The decomposition analysis shows that
1 Banking System Survey, Credit Institutions Survey.
2 The Research and Information Department used expert estimates to show the distribution of cash foreign currency outside the banking
system by sector.
Monetary Conditions
2011 Q1 23
household money accounted for the largest share in broad money supply from 2001 to the first quarter of 2011
(55-56% on average), while non-financial organisations contributed about 40-41% and other financial organi-
sations 3-4%.
The analysis of annual growth rates shows that financial organisation money dynamics was characterised
by larger volatility, whereas the annual rates of growth in money supply in the sector of non-financial organisa-
tions (except for the period of 2007-2008) and households were affected by the short-term fluctuations to a
smaller degree.
The household sector made the biggest contribution to the acceleration of annual growth in broad money
supply in 2002-2011. At the same time, the role of non-financial organisations in broad money supply growth
increased noticeably in 2006-2007, i.e. in the period preceding the financial and economic crisis. During the cri-
sis, the annual rates of growth in non-financial organisation money decreased faster than in the household sec-
tor and this factor strongly affected broad money dynamics. After the crisis, the annual growth in broad money
supply largely occurred on account of household money. In the last months of 2010 and in the first quarter of
2011, this growth trend started to slow down; however, household sector money continued to make the big -
gest contribution to the annual growth in broad money supply (in terms of both the levels and dynamics). The
24 2011 Q1
tinues, banks keep building up their ruble liabili -
ties, and this factor has a definite impact on the
contraction of lending in foreign currency and the
increase in the supply of ruble loans.
The slower growth in debt on foreign cur -
rency loans can also be explained by the reduced
demand for this type of lending amid increased
exchange rate volatility, and also by the revalua -
tion effect of the ruble appreciation.
stood at 16.3% as of April 1, 2011. If the current
trends persist, the annual rates of growth in the
credit aggregates are likely to stabilise at 15-20%
in the near future.
The dynamics of the major types of banks’
liabilities is a factor that influences considerably
the revival of lending activity. Now that the role of
external borrowings has decreased after the crisis
and the process of deposit de-dollarization con -
contribution of financial organisations to the annual rates of growth in broad money supply was inconsiderable
in 2002-2011 (some increase in this contribution was observed only in the first half of 2009).
Normally, the biggest contribution to the demand for money is made by indicators characterising transac-
tion needs. Household final consumption expenditures can be used as one of such indicators to assess the de -
mand for money in the sector of households. In simplified terms, the long-term relationship between household
sector money supply and household final consumption expenditures is based on the interrelation of these two
indicators. In 2002-2010, money supply growth in the household sector matched as a whole the dynamics of
household final consumption expenditures. At the same time, there were periods when the growth of household
money was observed to accelerate or decelerate considerably relative to the growth in household final consump-
tion expenditures.
Yields on alternative assets (for example, the exchange rate or the deposit interest rate) and the wealth
indicator also have considerable influence on the demand for money in the household sector. During the latest
crisis, the national currency devaluation and the growth of devaluation expectations reduced considerably the
household demand for rubles and caused a flow of funds into foreign currency-denominated assets (including
cash). In particular, the dollarization rate of household deposits exceeded 30% at the start of 2009 (as com -
pared with 12.4% at the beginning of 2008). As the macroeconomic situation stabilised, the share of foreign
currency deposits in the total value of household deposits decreased and stood at 18.2% as of April 1, 2011.
The demand for money of non-financial organisations can be analysed using the GDP indicator as a variable
characterising transaction needs. The comparison of real money dynamics in the sector of non-financial organi-
sations and trends in real GDP shows that these two indicators are interrelated. This relationship was especially
evident in the period of the financial and economic crisis and after it.
While the transaction motive plays the most important role in the demand for money for non-financial
organisations, yields on alternative assets can also influence money dynamics in this sector. For example, non-
financial organisation deposits, as well as household
deposits, demonstrated a trend towards their dollari-
zation. Moreover, in the past ten years, the highest
level of deposit dollarization was registered specifi -
cally in the sector of non-financial organisations. At
the height of the financial and economic crisis (dur -
ing the first months of 2009) the share of foreign
currency deposits in the total value of all deposits of
non-financial organisations increased almost to 40%
(as compared with about 14-16% at the start of
2008).
For financial organisations, the motive to build
a portfolio of assets is more important than transac-
tion needs. Therefore, money dynamics in the sec -
tor of financial organisations is affected by economic
activity to a smaller extent as compared with other
sectors. As the activity of financial organisations is
closely linked to financial transactions, it can be pre-
sumed that the demand for money in this sector is
largely determined by the trends of financial market
indicators.
Monetary Conditions
2011 Q1 25
As a result, the annual rates of growth in for-
eign currency loans remain low (growth in total
debt on these loans stood at 3.3% as of April 1,
2011, while residents’ debt on foreign currency
loans contracted by 9% over the year) and their
share in the total debt on loans decreased to the
lowest level. This trend may enhance the role of
domestic financial markets (including interest
rates on Bank of Russia instruments) in the dy -
namics of real sector indicators.
26 2011 Q1
Bank of Russia press releases on monetary policy measures
in January-April 2011
January 2011
January 31
The Bank of Russia External and Public Relations Department informs that the Bank of Russia Board of
Directors took a decision on January 31, 2011, to leave the refinancing rate and interest rates on Bank of
Russia operations unchanged and raise from February 1, 2011, required reserve ratios:
– from 2.5% to 3.5% for credit institutions’ obligations to non-resident legal entities in the Russian
and foreign currency;
– from 2.5% to 3.0% for credit institutions’ obligations to individuals and other obligations in the
Russian and foreign currency.
This decision was made amid growing inflationary expectations and the emergence of pre-requisites
for a capital inflow into Russia as a result of high world oil prices.
Inflation accelerated in January 2011, and its annualised growth rates reached about 9% as of Janu-
ary 24. The growth of food prices remained a major factor in the acceleration of inflation. Additional infla-
tionary pressure resulted from the seasonal increase in the tariffs of natural monopolies. During the past
few months, inflation also accelerated in other segments of the consumer market. Supply shocks in global
food markets also made their contribution to the growth of consumer prices. Owing to higher inflationary
risks, including the risks attributable to the monetary factors, the monetary authorities deem it expedient
to take corresponding measures.
The Bank of Russia’s accommodative monetary policy has created conditions for further expansion
of banks’ lending operations and the recovery of economic activity. However , despite positive dynamics
demonstrated by some macroeconomic indicators, the latest Rosstat data on business confidence indexes
and the assessments of demand for industrial output testify to the persisting uncertainty in the assessment
of economic growth sustainability.
The Bank of Russia’s further measures to adjust its interest rate policy will depend on the interrelation
of risks of higher inflationary pressure and the slowing of economic growth. Therefore, the Bank of Russia
will continue monitoring the economic situation and promptly assessing the risks of the transformation of
observed price growth into steady inflationary trends.
The next meeting of the Bank of Russia Board of Directors to consider interest rate policy is scheduled
for February 2011.
January 31
The Bank of Russia External and Public Relations Department informs that in compliance with a deci-
sion taken by the Bank of Russia Board of Directors (Minutes No. 3 of January 31, 2011), the Bank of
Russia will raise the minimum requirements for international ratings assigned to the issuers (issues) of
securities included in the Bank of Russia Lombard List:
– to B/B2 from B-/B3 from April 1, 2011, under the classification of international rating agencies
Standard & Poor’s, Fitch Ratings and Moody’s Investors Service;
Bank of Russia press releases on monetary policy measures
2011 Q1 27
– to B+/B1 from B/B2 from July 1, 2011, under the classification of the above-mentioned interna-
tional rating agencies.
The Bank of Russia will cease including the bonds of issuers (issues) with the international ratings of
B-/B3 and B/B2 in its Lombard List from February 1, 2011 and April 1, 2011, respectively.
The bonds whose issues (issuers) have the international ratings of B-/B3 and B/B2 and were includ-
ed in the Bank of Russia Lombard List before February 1, 2011 and April 1, 2011, respectively, will remain
in the Bank of Russia Lombard List until they are redeemed or until the Bank of Russia Board of Directors
takes a decision on excluding these securities from the Bank of Russia Lombard List.
February 2011
February 9
The Bank of Russia External and Public Relations Department informs that in compliance with a deci-
sion taken by the Bank of Russia Monetary Policy Committee, from February 10, 2011, the Bank of Russia
will stop extending loans to credit institutions secured by assets or guarantees, with terms from 91 to 180
calendar days, under Bank of Russia Regulation No. 312-P dated November 12, 2007, “On the Procedure
for Extending Asset-Backed Loans to Credit Institutions by the Bank of Russia,” and also Lombard loans
at fixed rates for a term of 30 calendar days under Bank of Russia Regulation No. 236-P dated August 4,
2003, “On the Procedure for Extending Bank of Russia Loans to Credit Institutions against Securities Used
as Collateral.”
February 25 (extract from the press release)
The Bank of Russia External and Public Relations Department informs that on February 25, 2011, the
Bank of Russia Board of Directors took a decision to raise the refinancing rate and interest rates on some
of the Bank of Russia’s operations by 0.25 percentage points from February 28, 2011 (see the Table on
Interest Rates on the Bank of Russia Operations), and also to increase required reserve ratios from March
1, 2011:
– from 3.5% to 4.5% for credit institutions’ obligations to non-resident legal entities in the Russian
and foreign currency;
– from 3.0% to 3.5% for credit institutions’ obligations to individuals and other obligations in the
Russian and foreign currency.
This decision was made due to the persistence of high inflationary expectations and the emergence
of pre-requisites for an inflow of capital into Russia as a result of high world oil prices, and also owing to
the existence of certain risks posed by external and internal factors for sustainable economic growth. The
decision takes into account the fact that interest rates on Bank of Russia deposit operations will continue
to exert a major influence on money market rates amid a steady excess of liquidity in the banking system.
Also, the efforts to narrow the band of interest rates on Bank of Russia operations to provide and absorb
liquidity and level off interest rates on deposit operations on standard terms are expected to raise the ef -
ficiency of interest rate policy.
Although the price growth slowed down in February 2011, inflationary pressure remains high. Con-
sumer prices grew by an annualised 9.7% as of February 21. Rising food prices continued to make the
biggest contribution to inflation. This process was also facilitated by supply shocks in the global food mar-
kets. In the past few months, the accelerated price growth has also been observed in the segment of non-
food consumer goods.
Major macroeconomic indicators continue to change both ways. Industrial output has been demon-
strating stable growth rates for several months now. At the same time, fixed capital investment contracted
considerably in January 2011, and household income and consumer demand continued to decline.
The Bank of Russia’s further measures to adjust its monetary policy will depend on the correlation of
risks linked to the persistence of high inflationary pressure and the slowing of economic growth.
28 2011 Q1
The next meeting of the Bank of Russia Board of Directors to consider interest rate policy is scheduled
for March 2011.
February 28
The Bank of Russia External and Public Relations Department informs that on February 25, 2011,
the Bank of Russia Board of Directors took a decision on adopting the following minimum requirements
for credit ratings assigned by at least one of international rating agencies to the organisations’ long-term
foreign currency obligations for their inclusion in the Bank of Russia List of Organisations:
– the minimum rating of B under the classification of Standard & Poor’s or Fitch Ratings, or B2 under
the classification of Moody’s Investors Service from April 1, 2011;
– the minimum rating of B+ under the classification of Standard & Poor’s or Fitch Ratings, or B1 un-
der the classification of Moody’s Investors Service from July 1, 2011.
The Bank of Russia List of Organisations will exclude:
– from March 1, 2011 – organisations with the ratings of B- or B3 assigned under the classification
of Standard & Poor’s, Fitch Ratings or Moody’s Investors Service;
– from April 1, 2011 – organisations with the ratings of B or B2 assigned under the classification of
Standard & Poor’s, Fitch Ratings or Moody’s Investors Service.
The obligations of organisations with the ratings of B- or B3 and B or B2, which were assigned under
the classification of the above-mentioned rating agencies and were used as collateral for Bank of Russia
loans as of April 1 and July 1, 2011, respectively, will continue to be used as security for the Bank of Russia
loans until they are repaid.
March 2011
March 1
The Bank of Russia External and Public Relations Department informs that from March 1, 2011, the
Bank of Russia made the following changes to the exchange rate-setting mechanism:
the operating floating range of permissible fluctuations in the ruble value of the bi-currency basket
(0.45 euros and 0.55 US dollars), used to mitigate excessive exchange rate volatility, was widened sym-
metrically to 5 rubles from 4 rubles,
the amount of cumulative interventions, necessary for the band shift by 5 kopecks, was decreased
from $650 million to $600 million.
The Bank of Russia made these changes to the exchange rate-setting mechanism as part of its efforts
to switch gradually to the inflation targeting regime, which is a top priority task for the Bank of Russia in
the medium-term perspective in compliance with the Guidelines for the Single State Monetary Policy in
2011 and for 2012 and 2013.
These changes designed to increase the potential flexibility of the exchange rate will help raise the ef-
ficiency of the interest rate policy, which the Bank of Russia is implementing for the purposes of achieving
price stability.
March 11
The Bank of Russia External and Public Relations Department informs that the Bank of Russia has
amended the methodology of calculating the nationally-defined M2 money supply to ensure the con -
sistency of approaches to the sectoral classification of institutions in monetary, financial and government
finance statistics and the system of national accounts, which is required to refer economic entities to par-
ticular sectors of the economy (in particular , this classification refers such government corporations as the
Housing and Utilities Reform Fund and the Russian Nanotechnology Corporation to the general govern -
ment sector). The M2 methodology has also been amended due to the use of new sources of information
making it possible to improve the quality of statistical data.
Updated time series are posted on the Bank of Russia website in the Statistics section.
Bank of Russia press releases on monetary policy measures
2011 Q1 29
March 16
The Bank of Russia External and Public Relations Department informs that from July 1, 2011, the
Bank of Russia suspends conducting repos with credit institutions, in which the shares of Russian compa-
nies are used as collateral.
March 25
The Bank of Russia External and Public Relations Department informs that the Bank of Russia Board
of Directors took a decision on March 25, 2011, to leave the refinancing rate and interest rates on Bank of
Russia operations unchanged and raise from April 1, 2011, required reserve ratios:
– from 4.5% to 5.5% for credit institutions’ obligations to non-resident legal entities in the Russian
and foreign currency;
– from 3.5% to 4.0% for credit institutions’ obligations to individuals and other obligations in the
Russian and foreign currency.
This decision was made due to the persistence of high inflationary expectations and the existence of
risks for sustainable economic growth, and also owing to instability in the global financial and commodity
markets as further volatility may adversely affect the Russian economy.
The slowing of growth in consumer prices, which started in February, continued in March 2011;
however , inflation pressure remained high: the annualised consumer price index growth stood at 9.4%
p.a. as of March 21, 2011 (9.5% in February). The slower price growth in February was registered across
all items of the consumer goods basket, including both non-food consumer goods and services and food
products, which could suggest a gradual decrease in the effect of price shocks in the domestic agricultural
raw material market supported by the rapid growth of world food prices in recent months, and the positive
role of the ruble’s appreciation in restraining inflation.
The trend of the gradual slowdown in money supply growth continued in March and this factor with
a certain time lag will help restrict inflation risks attributable to the monetary factors.
Major macroeconomic indicators changed both ways in February. Industrial output did not expand
as compared with January but its annualised growth rate remained relatively stable. Retail trade turnover
increased on an annualised basis. Fixed capital investment decreased for the second consecutive month in
February in annualised terms.
The Bank of Russia’s further measures to adjust its monetary policy will depend on the correlation of
risks linked to the persistence of high inflationary pressure and the slowing of economic growth.
The next meeting of the Bank of Russia Board of Directors to consider interest rate policy is scheduled
for April 2011.
March 30
The Bank of Russia External and Public Relations Department informs that as part of its work to im -
prove the mechanism of regulating the banking sector liquidity, the Bank of Russia has taken a decision to
switch to three-month repo auctions on a monthly basis from April 1, 2011.
The Bank of Russia will additionally inform on the date of holding a three-month repo auction in April
2011.
April 2011
April 29 (extract from the press release)
The Bank of Russia External and Public Relations Department informs that the Bank of Russia Board of
Directors took a decision on April 29, 2011, to raise the refinancing rate and interest rates on some of the
Bank of Russia’s operations by 0.25 percentage points from May 3, 2011 (see the Table on Interest Rates
on the Bank of Russia’s Operations).
This decision was made due to the persistence of high inflationary expectations exceeding the infla -
tion targets for this year , and also taking into account the ambiguous effect, which the developments in
30 2011 Q1
the global financial and commodity markets may have on the Russian economy. The decision takes into
account the fact that interest rates on Bank of Russia deposit operations will continue to exert a major in-
fluence on money market rates amid a steady excess of liquidity in the banking system. Also, the efforts to
narrow the band of interest rates on Bank of Russia operations to provide and absorb liquidity are expected
to raise the efficiency of interest rate policy.
In April 2011, inflationary pressure remained high: the annualised rate of inflation stood at 9.6% as
of April 25, 2011 (9.5% in February-March 2011). The monthly growth of consumer prices, especially
the prices of some food products, continued to slow down, which testified to the gradual decrease of the
effect of price shocks in the domestic agricultural raw material market supported by the rapid growth of
world food prices. At the same time, monetary factors remained a major cause of inflationary pressure.
Basic macroeconomic indicators continued to change both ways in March 2011. Industrial output
expanded as compared with February but its annual growth slightly slowed down. The unemployment
rate continued to decrease. As before, fixed capital investment demonstrated weak dynamics. At the same
time, the faster growth in retail trade turnover in the past few months as compared with household in -
come, coupled with the larger volume of lending to individuals and the slower increase in household de -
posits may suggest the public’s lower propensity to save and may lead to higher inflation risks.
The Bank of Russia’s further measures to adjust its monetary policy will depend on the correlation of
risks linked to the persistence of high inflationary pressure and the slowing of economic growth, and also
on the external economic environment.
The next meeting of the Bank of Russia Board of Directors to consider interest rate policy is scheduled
for May 2011.
2011 Q1 31
Statistical Addendum
Table 1
Consumer prices by group of goods and services
(month on month, %)
Monthly
inflation
Core
inflation
Food price
growth
Food price
growth 1
Vegetable
and fruit price
growth
Non-food
price growth
Growth in non-
food prices,
excluding petrol
prices 2
Service price
growth
January 2.4 1.3 1.4 1.1 4.7 0.7 1.0 6.3
February 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.5 4.9 1.6 1.8 1.4
March 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.4 4.5 1.4 1.6 0.6
April 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 -0.1 1.0 1.1 0.3
May 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.3 4.1 0.7 0.8 0.3
June 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.1 3.9 0.8 0.3 0.5
July 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.2 3.2 0.6 0.2 0.8
August 0.0 0.5 -0.9 0.4 -11.0 0.6 0.4 0.4
September 0.0 0.5 -0.8 0.4 -11.5 0.7 0.6 0.1
October 0.0 0.3 -0.5 0.0 -6.2 0.6 0.7 -0.1
November 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.1
December 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 3.0 0.2 0.3 0.4
Full year (December on December) 8.8 8.3 6.1 6.9 -1.7 9.7 9.7 11.6
January 1.6 0.5 1.4 0.8 7.2 0.2 0.3 3.9
February 0.9 0.5 1.3 0.8 5.6 0.3 0.3 1.0
March 0.6 0.5 1.0 0.7 4.2 0.4 0.4 0.4
April 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.2
May 0.5 0.1 0.7 -0.1 7.2 0.4 0.3 0.4
June 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.0 4.6 0.2 0.2 0.4
July 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 -0.6 0.3 0.2 0.6
August 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 -1.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
September 0.8 1.1 1.6 1.8 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.0
October 0.5 0.8 0.7 1.0 -1.8 0.6 0.7 0.0
November 0.8 0.7 1.4 1.0 4.0 0.7 0.7 0.2
December 1.1 0.7 2.1 1.2 8.6 0.4 0.4 0.4
Full year (December on December) 8.8 6.6 12.9 9.4 45.6 5.0 4.9 8.1
January 2.4 1.1 2.6 1.6 11.2 0.9 0.6 4.1
February 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.0 2.7 0.3 0.4 0.8
March 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.4 0.5 0.6 0.3
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Bank of Russia estimate.
Note. T ables 1 to 7 are based on Rosstat data and Bank of Russia calculations.
32 2011 Q1
Table 2
Consumer prices by group of goods and services
(since start of year on accrual basis, %)
Monthly
inflation
Core
inflation
Food price
growth
Food price
growth 1
Vegetable
and fruit price
growth
Non-food
price growth
Growth in non-
food prices,
excluding petrol
prices 2
Service price
growth
January 2.4 1.3 1.4 1.1 4.7 0.7 1.0 6.3
February 4.1 2.9 3.3 2.6 9.8 2.3 2.8 7.8
March 5.4 4.3 5.0 4.0 14.7 3.8 4.5 8.5
April 6.2 5.2 5.8 4.8 14.6 4.8 5.7 8.7
May 6.8 5.7 6.5 5.1 19.3 5.5 6.5 9.1
June 7.4 6.0 7.0 5.2 24.0 6.3 6.9 9.6
July 8.1 6.3 7.6 5.4 28.0 7.0 7.1 10.5
August 8.1 6.8 6.6 5.8 14.0 7.6 7.6 10.9
September 8.1 7.3 5.8 6.3 0.8 8.3 8.2 11.0
October 8.1 7.6 5.2 6.3 -5.4 9.0 9.0 10.9
November 8.4 8.0 5.5 6.5 -4.5 9.4 9.4 11.1
December 8.8 8.3 6.1 6.9 -1.7 9.7 9.7 11.6
January 1.6 0.5 1.4 0.8 7.2 0.2 0.3 3.9
February 2.5 1.0 2.7 1.6 13.2 0.5 0.6 5.0
March 3.2 1.5 3.8 2.3 18.0 0.9 1.0 5.4
April 3.5 1.7 4.1 2.5 19.3 1.3 1.3 5.6
May 4.0 1.8 4.8 2.4 27.9 1.7 1.7 6.0
June 4.4 2.0 5.4 2.4 33.8 1.9 1.9 6.4
July 4.8 2.4 5.7 2.8 32.9 2.2 2.1 7.0
August 5.4 3.1 6.6 4.1 31.0 2.5 2.5 7.3
September 6.2 4.3 8.4 5.9 31.3 3.1 3.1 7.4
October 6.8 5.1 9.1 7.0 28.9 3.8 3.8 7.4
November 7.6 5.8 10.6 8.1 34.0 4.5 4.5 7.6
December 8.8 6.6 12.9 9.4 45.6 5.0 4.9 8.1
January 2.4 1.1 2.6 1.6 11.2 0.9 0.6 4.1
February 3.2 1.8 3.9 2.6 14.2 1.2 1.1 4.9
March 3.8 2.5 4.8 3.5 15.8 1.7 1.7 5.2
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Bank of Russia estimate.
Statistical Addendum
2011 Q1 33
Table 3
Consumer prices by group of goods and services
(month on corresponding month of previous year, %)
Monthly
inflation
Core
inflation 1
Food price
growth
Food price
growth 2
Vegetable
and fruit price
growth
Non-food
price growth
Growth in non-
food prices,
excluding petrol
prices 1
Service price
growth
January 13.4 13.9 15.9 17.3 4.1 8.1 8.9 16.9
February 13.9 14.6 16.1 17.6 3.9 9.2 10.2 17.0
March 14.0 14.9 15.8 17.5 2.5 9.9 11.2 17.0
April 13.2 14.4 14.1 16.3 -3.0 10.0 11.7 16.1
May 12.3 13.6 12.5 14.9 -5.1 9.9 11.9 15.3
June 11.9 12.9 11.9 13.7 -1.8 9.9 11.7 14.6
July 12.0 12.3 12.4 12.7 8.7 9.8 11.4 14.5
August 11.6 11.7 11.6 11.8 9.1 9.9 11.2 13.9
September 10.7 10.8 9.9 10.6 3.2 9.9 11.0 12.8
October 9.7 9.6 7.6 8.7 -2.8 9.6 10.6 12.7
November 9.1 8.8 6.6 7.6 -2.9 9.6 10.0 12.1
December 8.8 8.3 6.1 6.9 -1.7 9.7 9.7 11.6
January 8.0 7.5 6.1 6.6 0.7 9.1 9.0 9.1
February 7.2 6.3 5.5 5.8 1.4 7.7 7.4 8.7
March 6.5 5.4 4.8 5.1 1.1 6.6 6.1 8.4
April 6.0 4.8 4.4 4.5 2.4 5.9 5.2 8.4
May 6.0 4.4 4.4 4.1 5.4 5.7 4.7 8.4
June 5.8 4.3 4.5 4.0 6.1 5.1 4.6 8.4
July 5.5 4.4 4.2 4.2 2.1 4.8 4.6 8.2
August 6.1 4.7 6.1 5.1 13.1 4.5 4.5 8.0
September 7.0 5.3 8.7 6.5 28.0 4.4 4.6 8.0
October 7.5 5.8 10.0 7.6 33.9 4.4 4.5 8.1
November 8.1 6.2 11.2 8.5 38.0 4.7 4.8 8.1
December 8.8 6.6 12.9 9.4 45.6 5.0 4.9 8.1
January 9.6 7.2 14.2 10.2 51.1 5.6 5.2 8.2
February 9.5 7.4 14.2 10.5 46.9 5.6 5.3 7.9
March 9.5 7.7 14.1 10.8 42.9 5.8 5.5 7.9
1 Bank of Russia estimate.
2 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
34 2011 Q1
Table 4
Inflation growth over period since start of year due to price changes
by group of goods and services (percentage points)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food
products
Paid
services
Vegetables and
fruit
Inflation over
period, %
Core
inflation
Non-core
inflation 2
January 0.4 0.3 1.6 0.2 2.4 1.0 1.4
February 0.9 0.9 2.0 0.4 4.1 2.4 1.7
March 1.4 1.4 2.1 0.5 5.4 3.5 2.0
April 1.6 1.8 2.2 0.5 6.2 4.2 2.0
May 1.8 2.1 2.3 0.7 6.8 4.6 2.2
June 1.8 2.4 2.4 0.9 7.4 4.8 2.6
July 1.9 2.6 2.6 1.0 8.1 5.1 3.0
August 2.0 2.9 2.7 0.5 8.1 5.5 2.6
September 2.1 3.1 2.8 0.0 8.1 5.9 2.1
October 2.1 3.4 2.7 -0.2 8.1 6.1 1.9
November 2.2 3.5 2.8 -0.2 8.4 6.4 1.9
December 2.4 3.6 2.9 -0.1 8.8 6.7 2.1
January 0.3 0.1 1.0 0.3 1.6 0.4 1.2
February 0.6 0.2 1.3 0.5 2.5 0.8 1.7
March 0.8 0.3 1.4 0.6 3.2 1.2 2.0
April 0.9 0.5 1.4 0.7 3.5 1.4 2.1
May 0.8 0.6 1.5 1.0 4.0 1.5 2.5
June 0.8 0.7 1.7 1.2 4.4 1.6 2.8
July 1.0 0.8 1.8 1.2 4.8 1.9 2.8
August 1.4 0.9 1.9 1.1 5.4 2.5 2.8
September 2.0 1.1 1.9 1.1 6.2 3.5 2.8
October 2.4 1.4 1.9 1.0 6.8 4.1 2.7
November 2.8 1.6 2.0 1.2 7.6 4.7 2.9
December 3.3 1.8 2.1 1.7 8.8 5.3 3.5
January 0.5 0.3 1.1 0.4 2.4 0.8 1.5
February 0.9 0.4 1.3 0.6 3.2 1.4 1.7
March 1.2 0.6 1.3 0.7 3.8 2.0 1.8
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
Statistical Addendum
2011 Q1 35
Table 5
Monthly inflation growth due to price changes
by group of goods and services (percentage points)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food
products
Paid
services
Vegetables
and fruit
Inflation over
period, %
Core
inflation
Non-core
inflation 2
January 0.4 0.3 1.6 0.2 2.4 1.0 1.4
February 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.7 1.3 0.3
March 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 1.3 1.1 0.2
April 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.0
May 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2
June 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.4
July 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.4
August 3 0.0
September 3 0.0
October 3 0.0
November 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0
December 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1
January 0.3 0.1 1.0 0.3 1.6 0.4 1.2
February 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.5
March 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.3
April 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1
May 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.4
June 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3
July 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.1
August 0.4 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0
September 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.9 -0.1
October 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.5 0.6 -0.1
November 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.3
December 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.6 0.5
January 0.5 0.3 1.1 0.4 2.4 0.8 1.5
February 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.2
March 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
3 Owing to zero inflation in August-October 2009, estimates may vary.
36 2011 Q1
Table 6
Contribution to inflation growth over period since start of year
by group of goods and services (%)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food products Paid services Vegetables and fruit Core inflation Non-core inflation 2
January 15.6 11.3 66.2 7.0 42.3 57.7
February 22.1 21.5 47.9 8.6 57.7 42.3
March 25.3 26.1 38.9 9.7 64.0 36.0
April 26.7 29.3 35.5 8.5 67.9 32.1
May 25.9 30.5 33.4 10.2 67.5 32.5
June 24.1 31.9 32.4 11.6 65.0 35.0
July 23.0 32.3 32.3 12.4 62.6 37.4
August 24.7 35.3 33.8 6.2 67.6 32.4
September 26.7 38.7 34.2 0.4 73.3 26.7
October 26.6 41.9 33.8 -2.4 76.3 23.7
November 26.7 42.2 33.0 -1.9 76.7 23.3
December 26.7 41.1 32.9 -0.7 76.4 23.6
January 17.3 4.7 61.6 16.3 25.6 74.4
February 22.2 7.3 51.4 19.1 31.6 68.4
March 25.2 10.4 43.9 20.6 37.4 62.6
April 25.0 13.2 41.7 20.2 39.8 60.2
May 20.9 15.3 38.5 25.3 37.2 62.8
June 19.0 15.8 37.5 27.7 37.2 62.8
July 20.5 16.6 38.0 24.9 40.4 59.6
August 26.4 17.3 35.4 20.9 47.1 52.9
September 32.9 18.3 30.6 18.2 55.5 44.5
October 35.9 20.5 28.2 15.5 60.5 39.5
November 36.7 21.6 25.7 16.1 61.5 38.5
December 37.0 20.6 23.7 18.8 60.3 39.7
January 23.2 13.4 45.8 17.7 35.5 64.5
February 28.2 13.0 40.0 18.8 45.1 54.9
March 31.9 15.5 35.3 17.3 52.5 47.5
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
Statistical Addendum
2011 Q1 37
Table 7
Contribution to monthly inflation growth
by group of goods and services (%)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food products Paid services Vegetables and fruit Core inflation Non-core inflation 2
January 15.6 11.3 66.2 7.0 42.3 57.7
February 31.2 35.9 22.0 10.9 79.5 20.5
March 35.2 40.0 11.7 13.1 83.0 17.0
April 37.5 53.9 9.3 -0.7 97.1 2.9
May 17.1 42.5 13.3 27.1 62.6 37.4
June 5.7 46.9 20.7 26.8 38.4 61.6
July 10.8 35.8 31.6 21.8 35.3 64.7
August 3
September 3
October 3
November 28.1 49.4 12.3 10.2 87.7 12.3
December 27.3 19.3 30.1 23.3 70.2 29.8
January 17.3 4.7 61.6 16.3 25.6 74.4
February 30.6 11.7 33.6 24.1 42.2 57.8
March 36.4 22.1 15.4 26.0 59.6 40.4
April 23.4 42.8 18.0 15.8 65.3 34.7
May -5.6 29.1 18.0 58.5 20.5 79.5
June 0.9 20.8 28.1 50.2 36.6 63.4
July 38.7 26.1 43.8 -8.5 79.6 20.4
August 75.8 22.8 13.2 -11.8 102.9 -2.9
September 72.6 25.0 1.4 1.0 107.1 -7.1
October 71.1 46.0 -0.8 -16.3 119.3 -19.3
November 42.4 30.1 6.3 21.2 68.8 31.2
December 38.9 14.1 10.7 36.3 52.4 47.6
January 23.2 13.4 45.8 17.7 35.5 64.5
February 43.0 11.8 22.7 22.4 73.9 26.1
March 50.0 27.6 12.4 10.0 88.2 11.8
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
3 Owing to zero inflation in August-October 2009, estimates may vary.
38 2011 Q1
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Macroeconomic indicators
GDP
over period since start of year, billion rubles
2008 8,878 19,116 30,658 41,277
2009 8,307 17,529 27,968 38,786
2010 9,572 20,195 31,968 44,939
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2008 109.2 ... ... 105.2
2009 90.8 ... ... 92.2
2010 103.5 ... ... 104.0
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2008 109.2 107.9 106.4 98.7
2009 90.8 88.8 91.4 97.4
2010 103.5 105.0 103.1 104.5
Industrial output indices
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2009 84.5 86.4 90.4 101.8
2010 109.5 110.9 106.4 106.5
2011 105.9
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2009 84.5 85.5 87.1 90.7
2010 109.5 110.2 108.9 108.2
2011 105.9
Agricultural output
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2009 102.2 100.7 98.9 105.1
2010 103.6 102.3 80.3 91.8
2011 100.7
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2009 102.2 ... ... 101.4
2010 103.6 102.8 88.3 88.1
2011 100.7
Fixed capital investment
over period since start of year, billion rubles
2009 1,224.3 2,946.4 5,007.4 7,976.0
2010 1,242.6 3,205.1 5,566.2 9,151.4
2011 1,343.0
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2009 82.0 79.1 82.3 90.7
2010 95.2 105.6 105.3 111.1
2011 98.5
Retail trade turnover
over period since start of year, billion rubles
2009 3,327.2 6,836.5 10,521.3 14,584.7
2010 3,625.7 7,560.2 11,764.0 16,468.6
2011 4,163.7
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2009 100.5 94.8 91.2 94.3
2010 102.2 106.9 108.4 107.4
2011 104.7
Federal budget on accrual
basis, as of end of period
revenue
billion rubles
2009 1,732.7 3,172.2 5,114.4 7,337.8
2010 1,954.9 3,997.9 6,008.6 8,305.4
2011 2,392.8
as % of GDP
2009 20.9 18.1 18.3 18.9
2010 20.4 19.8 18.8 18.5
2011 20.8 1
expenditure
billion rubles
2009 1,762.4 3,893.8 6,441.7 9,660.1
2010 2,199.5 4,386.2 6,701.2 10,117.4
2011 2,214.7
as % of GDP
2009 21.2 22.2 23.0 24.9
2010 23.0 21.7 21.0 22.5
2011 19.2 1
surplus(+)/
deficit(-)
billion rubles
2009 -29.7 -721.7 -1,327.2 -2,322.3
2010 -244.6 -388.3 -692.6 -1,812.0
2011 178.0
as % of GDP
2009 -0.4 -4.1 -4.7 -6.0
2010 -2.6 -1.9 -2.2 -4.0
2011 1.5 1
General government budget
on accrual basis, as of end
of period
revenue
billion rubles
2009 3,033.5 6,042.7 9,555.0 13,599.7
2010 3,463.1 7,603.5 11,419.4 16,031.9
2011 4,392.5
as % of GDP
2009 36.5 34.5 34.2 35.1
2010 36.2 37.6 35.7 35.7
2011 38.1 1
expenditure
billion rubles
2009 2,807.1 6,619.7 10,503.9 16,048.3
2010 3,220.7 7,331.2 11,309.8 17,616.6
2011 3,575.4
as % of GDP
2009 33.8 37.8 37.6 41.4
2010 33.6 36.3 35.4 39.2
2011 31.0 1
surplus(+)/
deficit(-)
billion rubles
2009 226.4 -577.0 -948.9 -2,448.6
2010 242.4 272.3 109.7 -1,584.6
2011 817.0
as % of GDP
2009 2.7 -3.3 -3.4 -6.3
2010 2.5 1.3 0.3 -3.5
2011 7.1 1
Table 8
Russia’s key macroeconomic and financial indicators
Note. T able 8 is based on data compiled by the Bank of Russia, the Federal State Statistics Service, the Ministry of Finance of the
Russian Federation and the Federal T reasury.
Statistical Addendum
2011 Q1 39
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Socio-economic indicators
Nominal imputed average
monthly per employee wage
rubles
2009 17,441 18,419 18,673 20,670
2010 19,485 20,809 21,031 23,491
2011 21,167
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2009 112.8 108.0 105.7 108.4
2010 110.5 112.4 111.6 112.7
2011 110.1
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2009 112.8 ... ... 107.8
2010 110.5 111.5 111.5 111.8
2011 110.1
Real imputed average monthly per employee wage, as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2009 99.2 96.1 94.8 99.3
2010 103.1 106.1 105.1 104.2
2011 100.5
Household money income (per capita monthly average), rubles
2009 14,009.3 16,921.1 16,656.8 19,761.3
2010 15,807.5 18,388.7 18,236.8 21,756.9
2011 16,840.4
Household real disposable
money income
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2009 100.7 102.9 96.3 108.0
2010 107.3 103.7 104.5 102.1
2011 97.1
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2009 100.7 ... ... 102.0
2010 107.3 105.3 105.0 104.2
2011 97.1
Household spending, as % of
income
purchase of goods and payment for services
2009 76.6 67.1 71.2 65.0
2010 73.0 68.0 72.6 67.0
2011 78.2
compulsory payments and contributions
2009 11.2 10.4 10.9 9.9
2010 9.6 10.0 10.3 10.4
2011 9.9
growth in savings
2009 8.3 16.6 12.3 17.5
2010 15.9 15.4 11.8 14.9
2011 11.7
purchase of foreign currency
2009 10.2 3.5 6.0 3.5
2010 3.2 3.2 4.3 4.0
2011 4.0
cash on hand
2009 -6.3 2.4 -0.4 4.1
2010 -1.7 3.4 1.1 3.7
2011 -3.8
Average imputed pension, total, rubles
2009 4,614 5,151 5,330 5,670
2010 7,126 7,580 7,596 7,604
2011 8,011
Real imputed pension
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2009 106.1 113.3 109.1 114.2
2010 144.1 138.9 134.3 124.1
2011 102.7
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2009 106.1 ... ... 110.7
2010 144.1 141.3 138.8 134.8
2011 102.7
Total number of unemployed
(calculated using ILO
methodology)
million
2009 6.8 6.5 6.0 6.1
2010 6.6 5.6 5.2 5.2
2011 5.6
as % of economically active population
2009 9.1 8.6 7.8 8.0
2010 8.8 7.4 6.8 6.9
2011 7.5
Table 8 (continued)
40 2011 Q1
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Foreign economic activity indicators
Price of Urals crude, over period since start of
year
$/barrel
2009 43.2 50.5 56.3 60.7
2010 75.0 75.8 75.8 78.2
2011 102.6
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2009 46.1 48.0 52.3 64.6
2010 173.7 150.1 134.7 128.9
2011 136.8
Exports of goods, over period since start of year
$ billion
2009 57.3 125.4 207.8 303.4
2010 92.2 189.6 287.3 400.1
2011 112.6 2
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2009 52.0 52.9 55.6 64.3
2010 161.1 151.3 138.2 131.9
2011 122.0 2
Imports of goods, over period since start of year
$ billion
2009 38.5 82.4 131.5 191.8
2010 45.7 103.9 172.3 248.7
2011 64.4 2
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2009 63.9 60.7 60.1 65.7
2010 118.8 126.0 131.1 129.7
2011 140.9 2
Current account balance (over period since start of year), $ billion
2009 9.7 17.6 32.7 48.6
2010 33.3 51.3 57.0 71.1
2011 31.8 2
Private sector net capital outflow (inflow) (over period since start of year), $ billion
2009 -35.0 -31.4 -64.9 -56.1
2010 -14.7 -10.7 -13.8 -35.3
2011 -21.3 2
Foreign investment in Russia’s non-financial sector
(Rosstat data), over period since start of year
$ billion
2009 12.0 32.2 54.7 81.9
2010 13.1 30.4 47.5 114.7
2011 44.3
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2009 69.7 69.1 72.2 79.0
2010 109.3 94.5 86.8 140.1
2011 3.4 times
of which:
direct
$ billion
2009 3.2 6.1 10.0 15.9
2010 2.6 5.4 8.2 13.8
2011 3.9
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2009 57.0 55.0 51.9 58.9
2010 82.4 89.0 82.2 86.8
2011 148.3
portfolio
$ billion
2009 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.9
2010 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.1
2011 0.1
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2009 93.5 74.9 78.6 62.3
2010 2.5 times 81.1 85.0 121.9
2011 41.8
other
$ billion
2009 8.7 25.2 43.7 65.1
2010 10.2 24.3 38.4 99.9
2011 40.3
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2009 75.6 73.5 79.1 86.5
2010 117.1 96.2 87.8 153.3
2011 3.9 times
Russia’s international reserves (as of end of period), $ billion
2009 383.8 412.5 413.4 439.5
2010 447.4 461.2 490.1 479.4
2011 502.5
Real ruble exchange rate indices (last month of
quarter), growth as % of December of previous
year 3
ruble vs. US dollar
2009 -15.4 -5.0 -3.9 -0.4
2010 3.6 -0.7 2.0 4.0
2011 10.5
ruble vs. euro
2009 -12.0 -7.0 -9.0 -6.5
2010 11.7 18.6 14.5 14.5
2011 5.2
effective rate
2009 -10.0 -4.2 -5.6 -3.9
2010 7.4 9.7 6.8 6.9
2011 6.9
Table 8 (continued)
Statistical Addendum
2011 Q1 41
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Financial market indicators (including Sberbank interest rates)
Average for period
Overnight interbank credit
rate, % p.a.
in rubles
2009 11.6 7.7 7.1 5.5
2010 4.2 3.1 2.6 2.9
2011 2.8
in US dollars
2009 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
2010 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
2011 0.2
OFZ yields, % p.a. 4
2009 10.5 10.3 10.6 9.1
2010 7.9 7.4 7.3 7.4
2011 7.5
Interest rate on household
time deposits, % p.a.
up to 1 year in rubles
2009 10.0 10.8 10.7 10.2
2010 8.5 7.1 6.0 5.6
2011 5.3
over 1 year in rubles
2009 10.0 10.3 9.3 9.2
2010 7.7 6.2 5.3 4.8
2011 5.6
up to 1 year in US dollars
2009 6.0 5.3 5.5 5.2
2010 4.3 3.7 3.6 3.7
2011 3.5
over 1 year in US dollars
2009 6.5 6.1 5.7 5.5
2010 4.9 4.8 4.4 4.7
2011 4.5
Interest rate on credit to non-
financial organisations, % p.a.
up to 1 year in rubles
2009 16.6 15.8 14.9 13.9
2010 12.8 11.4 10.0 9.1
2011 8.7
over 1 year in rubles
2009 15.1 16.2 15.8 14.7
2010 13.9 12.3 11.4 10.5
2011 10.6
up to 1 year in US dollars
2009 10.7 10.1 10.0 9.3
2010 8.3 7.5 6.9 6.1
2011 6.2
over 1 year in US dollars
2009 12.7 11.6 10.7 9.0
2010 10.3 8.8 7.4 8.0
2011 7.3
Interest rate on ruble-denominated promissory notes discounted by banks, % p.a. 2009 15.7 14.3 14.0 11.8
Interest rate on ruble-denominated promissory notes issued by non-financial organisations and discounted
by credit institutions, % p.a. 5
2010 14.1 11.6 10.8 10.2
2011 8.4
Interest rate on ruble-denominated promissory notes issued by credit institutions and discounted by cred-
it institutions, % p.a. 5
2010 9.3 7.8 7.4 7.5
2011 7.4
MICEX rate in «tomorrow» trades, ruble/US dollar
2009 34.4761 32.2032 31.3160 29.4737
2010 29.8318 30.2891 30.6072 30.7248
2011 29.1281
As of end of quarter
RTS index, points
2009 689.63 987.02 1,254.52 1,444.61
2010 1,572.48 1,339.35 1,507.66 1,770.28
2011 2,044.20
Refinance rate, % p.a.
2009 13.00 11.50 10.00 8.75
2010 8.25 7.75 7.75 7.75
2011 8.00
Table 8 (continued)
42 2011 Q1
Table 8 (end)
Year 1.01 1.04 1.07 1.10
Monetary indicators
M0, billion rubles
2009 3,794.8 3,278.3 3,522.5 3,485.6
2010 4,038.1 3,986.1 4,367.7 4,524.5
2011 5,062.7 4,916.4
M2, billion rubles
2009 12,975.9 11,581.6 12,650.5 13,101.9
2010 15,267.6 15,639.4 16,900.9 17,690.2
2011 20,011.9 19,786.8
Broad money, billion rubles
2009 16,276.7 15,810.4 16,579.8 17,004.5
2010 19,095.8 19,309.7 20,557.1 21,318.6
2011 23,791.2 1 23,609.0,1
Net foreign assets, billion rubles
2009 12,190.8 12,877.9 13,040.6 13,221.6
2010 13,904.7 13,770.6 14,779.7 15,081.2
2011 14,993.6 1 14,984.9 1
Domestic claims, billion rubles
2009 10,078.2 9,994.9 10,864.9 11,539.1
2010 13,241.8 13,460.4 14,097.3 15,003.0
2011 17,468.2 1 16,974.8 1
Broad monetary base, billion rubles
2009 5,578.7 4,298.8 4,967.6 4,803.7
2010 6,467.3 6,363.9 7,195.0 7,126.0
2011 8,190.3 7,514.2
Balances of correspondent accounts, billion rubles
2009 1,027.6 431.7 471.4 545.4
2010 900.3 579.5 603.6 590.0
2011 994.7 597.2
Monetisation of the economy (by M2 aggregate), %
2009 32.1 31.9 32.2 32.5
2010 32.8 33.6 35.0 36.5
2011 37.5 38.4 1
Money multiplier
by broad monetary base
2009 2.33 2.69 2.55 2.73
2010 2.36 2.46 2.35 2.48
2011 2.44 2.63
change since start of year, %
2009 -0.4 6 15.8 9.5 17.3
2010 1.5 6 4.1 -0.5 5.2
2011 3.5 6 7.8
Foreign exchange rates
rubles per US dollar
2009 29.39 33.90 31.04 30.01
2010 30.19 29.50 31.26 30.51
2011 30.35 28.52
rubles per euro
2009 41.43 44.89 43.85 43.89
2010 43.46 39.57 38.21 41.44
2011 40.49 40.39
1 Preliminary data.
2 Estimate.
3 (+) signifies appreciation of the ruble, (-) signifies depreciation of the ruble.
4 OFZ effective market portfolio indicator.
5 Owing to the coming into force of Bank of Russia Instruction No.2332-U of November 12, 2009, the set of indicators used to characterise credit institutions’ interest rate policy in the
promissory note market changed from January 2010. Specifically, the single yield indicator for the promissory notes discounted by banks has been replaced by two indicators: the yield
indicator for promissory notes issued by credit institutions and the yield indicator for promissory notes issued by non-financial organisations. These indicators are calculated only for
operations with promissory notes denominated in Russian rubles.
6 Relative to beginning of previous year.
Statistical Addendum
2011 Q1 43
Table 9
Bank of Russia interest rates in January-May 2011 (% p.a.)
Instrument Liquidity provision/
absorption period
From 1.01.11
to 27.02.11
From 28.02.11
to 2.05.11 From 3.05.11
Providing liquidity at offered bids (including by auction)
Repo operations 1
1 day 5.00 5.25 5.50
1 week 5.00 5.25 5.50
3 months 6.50 6.75 7.00
6 months 2 7.00 7.25 7.50
12 months 2 7.50 7.75 8.00
Lombard loans 1, 3
1 week 5.00 5.25 5.50
3 months 6.50 6.75 7.00
6 months 2 7.00 7.25 7.50
12 months 2 7.50 7.75 8.00
Currency swap operations 4 1 day 7.75 8.00 8.25
Providing liquidity at fixed rates
Overnight loans 3, 5 1 day 7.75 8.00 8.25
Lombard loans 3
1 day 6.75 6.75 6.75
7 days 6.75 6.75 6.75
30 days 2 6.75 6.75 6.75
Repo operations
1 day 6.75 6.75 6.75
7 days 2 6.75 6.75 6.75
12 months 2 7.50 7.75 8.00
Loans secured by «non-market» assets
or guarantees 5
up to 90 days 6.75 7.00 7.25
91 to 180 days 2 7.25 7.50 7.75
181 to 365 days 2 7.75 8.00 8.25
Absorbing liquidity
Deposit auctions 6 1 month 5.00 5.00 5.25
3 months 2 6.00 6.00 6.25
Deposit operations at fixed rates
overnight, tom-next, spot-next and
demand 2.75 3.00 3.25
1 week, spot week 3.00 3.00 3.25
1 Minimum interest rate set by the Bank of Russia Board of Directors.
2 Operations have been currently suspended.
3 Pursuant to Bank of Russia Regulation No.236-P of August 4, 2003.
4 Interest rate set on the ruble part when determining the minimum offered swap difference.
5 Pursuant to Bank of Russia Regulation No.312-P of November 12, 2007.
6 Maximum interest rate set by the Bank of Russia Board of Directors.
44 2011 Q1
Table 10
Credit institutions’ required reserve ratios (from July 1, 2007 to October 31, 2009, %)
Required reserve ratio for bank obligations
to non-resident banks in Russian
and foreign currency
Required reserve ratio for obligations
to individuals in Russian currency
Required reserve ratio for other bank
obligations in Russian and foreign currency
July 1, 2007—October 10, 2007 4.5 4.0 4.5
October 11, 2007—January 14, 2008 3.5 3.0 3.5
January 15, 2008—February 29, 2008 4.5 4.0 4.5
March 1, 2008—June 30, 2008 5.5 4.5 5.0
July 1, 2008—August 31, 2008 7.0 5.0 5.5
September 1, 2008—September 17, 2008 8.5 5.5 6.0
September 18, 2008—October 14, 2008 4.5 1.5 2.0
October 15, 2008—April 30, 2009 0.5 0.5 0.5
May 1, 2009—May 31, 2009 1.0 1.0 1.0
June 1, 2009—June 30, 2009 1.5 1.5 1.5
July 1, 2009—July 31, 2009 2.0 2.0 2.0
August 1, 2009—October 31, 2009 2.5 2.5 2.5
Table 11
Credit institutions’ required reserve ratios
(from November 1, 2009 up to present, %)
Required reserve ratio for
bank obligations to non-
resident corporates
in Russian currency
Required reserve ratio for
bank obligations to non-
resident corporates
in foreign currency
Required reserve ratio for
obligations to individuals
in Russian currency
Required reserve ratio for
obligations to individuals
in foreign currency
Required reserve ratio for
other bank obligations
in Russian currency
Required reserve ratio for
other bank obligations
in foreign currency
November 1, 2009—
January 31, 2011 2.5
February 1, 2011—
February 28, 2011 3.5 3.0 3.0
March 1, 2011—
March 31, 2011 4.5 3.5 3.5
April 2011— 5.5 4.0 4.0
© The Central Bank of the Russian Federation, 2011
Research and Information Department