NBP MPC Press Release - 2025-07-01
Central bank: nbp | Type: decision | Date: 2025-07-01

Warsaw, 2 July 2025
Information from the meeting of the Monetary Policy Council
held on 1-2 July 2025
The Council decided to cut the NBP reference rate by 0.25 percentage points, i.e. to
5.00%. At the same time, the Council set the remaining NBP interest rates at the
following levels:
▪ lombard rate at 5.50%;
▪ deposit rate at 4.50%;
▪ rediscount rate at 5.05%;
▪ discount rate at 5.10%.
In the euro area, the annual GDP growth in 2025 Q1 amounted to 1.5%, i.e. was close to its
long-term average . Meanwhile, in the United States the annual GDP growth declined
below the long-term average, amounting to 2.0% in 2025 Q1. In light of incoming data, in
2025 Q2 the annual activity growth in both economies was likely similar to that recorded
in Q1. At the same time, inflation in these economies is running at levels consistent with
the central banks’ inflation targets. The outlook for global activity and inflation is subject
to uncertainty, related, among others, to changes in trade policies.
In Poland, in May 2025, annual growth rates of retail sales and industrial output were
positive, while construction and assembly production declined again in annual terms. In
the labour market , unemployment remains low, and the number of working persons
continues to be high, although employment in the enterprise sector in May 2025 was lower
than a year earlier. Annual wage growth in the national economy slowed down in 2025
Q1. Also, data from the enterprise sector indicate the slowdown in the wage growth.
According to the Statistics Poland flash estimate, annual CPI inflation in June 2025
amounted to 4.1% (compared to 4.0% in May 2025). Considering the Statistics Poland data,
it can be estimated that in June 2025 also inflation net of food and energy prices was close
to that recorded in May , amid services price growth remain ing elevated. The earlier
increases in the administered energy prices together with continuously heightened annual
growth in prices of food and non -alcoholic beverages translate into still elevated level of
CPI inflation.
The Council became acquainted with the results of the July projection of inflation and GDP
based on the NECMOD model. In line with the projection, prepared under the assumption
of unchanged NBP interest rates and taking into account data available until 9 June 2025,
there is a 50-percent probability that the annual price growth will be in the range of 3.5 –
4.4% in 2025 (against 4.1 – 5.7% in the March 2025 projection), 1.7 – 4.5% in 2026 (compared
to 2.0 – 4.8%) and 0.9 – 3.8% in 2027 (compared to 1.1 – 3.9%). At the same time, the annual
GDP growth – according to the projection – will be with a 50 -percent probability in the
range of 2.9 – 4.3% in 2025 (against 2.9 – 4.6% in the March 2025 projection), 2.1 – 4.1% in
2026 (compared to 1.9 – 4.0%) and 1.3 – 3.7% in 2027 (compared to 1.1 – 3.5%).
According to the available forecasts the CPI inflation in the coming months will fall below
the upper bound for deviations of the NBP inflation target. Taking this into account, in the
Council’s assessment, it became justified to adjust the level of the NBP interest rates.
Further decisions of the Council will depend on incoming information regarding
prospects for inflation and economic activity. Fiscal policy stance, developments in
demand pressure and situation in the labour market in subsequent quarters, as well as the
level of administered energy prices, remain an uncertainty factor. Uncertainty stems also
from inflation developments abroad, following, among others, from changes in trade
policies of major economies.
NBP will continue to take all necessary actions in order to ensure macroeconomic and
financial stability, including above all to bring inflation down sustainably to the NBP
inflation target in the medium term. NBP may intervene in the foreign exchange market.