NBP MPC Press Release - 2022-02-08
Central bank: nbp | Type: decision | Date: 2022-02-08

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Warsaw, 8 February 2022 
Information from the meeting of the Monetary Policy Council 
held on 8 February 2022 
The Council decided to increase the NBP reference rate by 0.50 percentage points, i.e. to 
2.75%. At the same time, the Council set the remaining NBP interest rates at the 
following levels: 
▪ lombard rate at 3.25%; 
▪ deposit rate at 2.25%; 
▪ rediscount rate at 2.80%; 
▪ discount rate at 2.85%. 
At the same time, the Council decided to increase the required reserve ratio from 2.0% 
to 3.5%. 
Incoming data indicate that after a strong growth in global economic activity in 2021 , in 
recent period economic conditions in some economies have deteriorated. Global economic 
activity is under a negative impact of supply-side constraints in some markets, high 
commodity prices and re-escalation of the pandemic. Latest forecasts indicate that global 
GDP growth in 2022 will be lower than in 2021, however, it will remain relatively robust, 
supported by an increase in consumption in many countries taking place amid good 
situation on the labour market and continued recovery in activity after the pandemic crisis. 
Further epidemic and geopolitical situation, as well as developments in economic policy 
in the biggest countries remain an u ncertainty factor for further course of the global 
economic conditions. 
Energy commodity prices – in particular prices of natural gas, oil and coal – as well as 
prices of some agricultural commodities remain markedly higher than a year ago. At the 
same time, global supply chain disruptions continue and international shipping costs are 
still elevated. This contributes to a marked rise in inflation worldwide, which i n many 
countries has reached highest levels in decades. At the same time inflation forecasts have 
been revised up and indicate that in many economies inflation in 2022 will remain higher 
than central banks’ targets. 
Amidst a marked increase in inflation many central banks are withdrawing monetary 
accommodation. Central banks in the Central-Eastern Europe region have been increasing 
 
 
 
 
 
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interest rates. The ECB keeps negative interest rates , although it has been reducing the 
scale of asset purchases. The US Federal Reserve signals a termination of asset purchases 
in March and a start of interest rate increases. 
In Poland, economic activity continues to recover . According to Statistics Poland 
preliminary estimate, GDP growth in 2021 amounted to 5.7%, and in 2021 Q4 there was a 
significant acceleration in annual GDP growth . The situation in the labour market 
continues to improve, which is reflected in decreasing unemployment, rising employment 
and a marked increase in average wage s. In the coming quarters economic situation is 
expected to remain favourabl e. However, there are uncertainty factors related to among 
others the impact of the pandemic on global and domestic economic conditions, as well as 
to the effects of supply-side constraints and hig h energy commodity prices on the 
economy. 
Inflation in Poland in December 2021 increased to 8.6% in annual terms, and in monthly 
terms it amounted to 0.9%. A significant contribution to an increase in inflation in 2021 
was made by the rise in global prices of commodities – including energy and agricultural 
commodities – record high increase in prices of CO2 emission allowances, rising prices of 
goods whose supply has been constrained by global pandemic disruptions as well as 
increases in electricity and natural gas prices introduced in 2021 . Ongoing economic 
recovery, including an increase in demand driven by rising household income, has also 
added to an increase in inflation. These factors, together with a rise in regulated tariffs on 
electricity, natural gas and thermal energy will contribute to inflation remaining at an 
elevated level also in 2022. In turn , a reduction in some tax rates as part of the so-called 
Anti-inflationary Shield will have a curbing impact on inflation. 
In a longer perspective , inflation will decrease, which will be supported by expected 
fading of some global shocks currently boosting price growth, as well as by an increase in 
the NBP interest rates. At the same time, amidst further economic recovery and expected 
continuation of favourable labour market conditions, as well as probably more lasting 
impact of external shocks on price dynamics, there persists a risk of inflation running 
above the NBP inflation target in the monetary poli cy transmission horizon. In order to 
reduce this risk, i.e. striving to decrease inflation to the NBP target in the medium term, 
the Council decided to increase NBP interest rates again. The increase of the NBP interest 
rates will also curb inflation expectations. 
 
 
 
 
 
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Decisions of the Council in the coming months will continue to be aimed at reducing 
inflation to a level consistent with the NBP inflation target in the medium term, while 
taking into account economic conditions, so as to ensure medium-term price stability and 
at the same time support sustainable economic growth after the global pandemic shock. 
The Council’s assessment regarding the total scale of monetary tightening necessary for 
achieving these goals will consider incoming information on perspectives for inflation and 
economic growth, including situation in the labour market . Zloty appreciation would be 
consistent with the direction of monetary policy conducted by the NBP. 
NBP may still intervene in the foreign exchange market and use other instruments 
envisaged in the Monetary Policy Guidelines. The timing and scale of the measures taken by 
NBP will depend on the market conditions.