Monetary policy assessment of 21 June 2018
Central bank: snb | Type: statement | Date: 2018-06-21

Monetary policy assessment of 21 June 2018
stabilising price developments and supporting economic activity. Interest on sight deposits at
the SNB remains at −0.75% and the target range for the three-month Libor is unchanged at
between −1.25% and −0.25%. The SNB will remain active in the foreign exchange market as
necessary, while taking the overall currency situation into consideration.
All in all, the value of the Swiss franc has barely changed since the monetary policy
assessment of March 2018. The currency remains highly valued. Following the March
assessment, the Swiss franc initially depreciated slightly against the US dollar and the euro.
However, in light of political uncertainty in Italy, we have since seen countermovement,
particularly against the euro. The situation on the foreign exchange market thus remains
fragile, and the negative interest rate and our willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange
market as necessary therefore remain essential. These measures keep the attractiveness of
Swiss franc investments low and ease pressure on the currency.
The new conditional inflation forecast for the coming quarters is slightly higher than it was in
March 2018 due to a marked rise in the price of oil; this price rise ceases to affect annual
inflation after the first quarter of 2019. From mid-2019, the new conditional forecast is lower
than it was in March 2018, mainly due to the muted outlook in the euro area. At 0.9%, the
inflation forecast for 2018 is 0.3 percentage points higher than projected at the March
assessment. For 2019, the SNB continues to anticipate inflation of 0.9%. For 2020, we expect
to see inflation of 1.6%, compared with 1.9% forecast in the last quarter. The conditional
inflation forecast is based on the assumption that the three-month Libor remains at –0.75%
over the entire forecast horizon.
Berne, 21 June 2018
Press release
Overall, global economic growth was solid in the first quarter. Growth in the US and China
was strong and broad-based. The pace of economic expansion slowed in the euro area,
however, albeit partly due to temporary factors. The economic signals for the coming months
remain favourable. The SNB’s baseline scenario therefore assumes that the global economy
will continue to grow above its potential.
The risks to the SNB’s baseline scenario are more to the downside. Chief among them are
political developments in certain countries as well as potential international tensions and
protectionist tendencies.
Switzerland’s economy continued to recover as expected, with GDP once again growing
faster than estimated potential in the first quarter. Overall capacity utilisation improved
further on the back of this positive development. The SNB still anticipates GDP growth of
around 2% for the current year and expects to see unemployment falling further.
Imbalances on the mortgage and real estate markets persist. While growth in mortgage
lending has been only moderate over the last few quarters, real estate prices have continued to
rise. Particularly in the residential investment property segment, there is the risk of a
correction due to the strong increase in prices in recent years. The SNB will continue to
monitor developments on the mortgage and real estate markets closely, and will regularly
reassess the need for an adjustment of the countercyclical capital buffer.
Berne, 21 June 2018
Press release