Bank of Russia keeps the key rate at 21.00% p.a.
Central bank: cbr | Type: statement | Date: 2025-04-25

On 25 April 2025, the Bank of Russia Board of Directors decided to keep
the key rate
at 21.00% per annum. Current inflationary pressures, including underlying ones, continue to decline, although remaining high. Domestic demand growth is still significantly outstripping the capabilities to expand the supply of goods and services. Nevertheless, according to high-frequency data, the economy began to gradually return to a balanced growth path.
The Bank of Russia will maintain monetary conditions as tight as necessary to return inflation to the target in 2026. This means that monetary policy will remain tight for a long period. Further decisions on the key rate will be made depending on the speed and sustainability of the decline in inflation and inflation expectations. According to the baseline scenario, the average key rate is expected to be in the range of
19.5–21.5%
per annum in 2025 and
13.0–14.0%
per annum in 2026. According to the Bank of Russia’s forecast, given the monetary policy stance, annual inflation will decline to
in 2025, return to 4.0% in 2026 and stay at the target further on.
In 2025 Q1, the current seasonally adjusted
price growth
went down and averaged 8.3% in annualised terms after 12.9% in 2024 Q4. The similar indicator of core inflation averaged 8.9% after 13.4% in the previous quarter. The impact of tight monetary conditions on demand is becoming increasingly evident in decreasing inflationary pressures. However, it is premature to say that the current trends are sustainable. As of 21 April 2025, annual inflation was 10.3%.
Inflation expectations of households, businesses, and financial market participants have not changed significantly since March. In general, inflation expectations remain elevated. This prevents inflation from decreasing more rapidly.
According to the baseline scenario, the Bank of Russia expects that inflationary pressures will continue to decline in the coming months. This will be supported by a cooldown in lending and high saving activity.
The upward deviation of the
Russian economy
from a balanced growth path is still significant. High domestic demand is backed up by rising household incomes and budget expenditures. However, high-frequency data and surveys of businesses indicate that growth in economic activity slowed in 2025 Q1 compared to 2024 Q4.
2023–2024.
Monetary conditions
remain tight under the impact of the monetary policy pursued and autonomous factors. Since March, changes in nominal interest rates have been diverse in various segments of the financial market. Non-price bank lending conditions remain tight.
Despite some reduction in deposit rates, households continue to demonstrate high propensity to save. Nevertheless, growing incomes allow households to increase both savings and consumption. Lending activity remains subdued in both retail and corporate segments.
Over the medium-term horizon, the
balance of inflation risks
is still tilted to the upside. The key proinflationary risks are associated with a longer upward deviation of the Russian economy from a balanced growth path and high inflation expectations, as well as with the deterioration in the terms of external trade. A further decrease in the growth rate of the global economy and oil prices in case of escalating trade tensions may have proinflationary effects through the ruble exchange rate dynamics. Disinflationary risks involve a more significant slowdown in lending growth and domestic demand under the impact of tight monetary conditions. If geopolitical tensions ease, external conditions may improve, which might have a disinflationary effect.
The Bank of Russia takes into account the announced parameters of fiscal policy. Its normalisation in 2025 will have a disinflationary effect. Changes in the fiscal policy parameters may require an adjustment in the monetary policy pursued.
Following the Board of Directors’ key rate meeting on 25 April 2025, the Bank of Russia has updated its
medium-term forecast
On 12 May 2025
, the Bank of Russia releases the Summary of the Key Rate Discussion and the Commentary on the Medium-term Forecast.
The Bank of Russia Board of Directors holds its next key rate meeting on
6 June 2025
. The press release on the Bank of Russia Board decision is to be published at 13.30 Moscow time.
Statement by Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina in follow-up to Board of Directors meeting on 25 April 2025
25.04.2025 13.30.00