NBP MPC Press Release - 2016-02-03
Central bank: nbp | Type: decision | Date: 2016-02-03

Warsaw, 3 February 2016 
Information from the meeting of the Monetary Policy 
Council held on 2-3 February 2016 
 
The Council decided to keep the NBP interest rates unchanged: 
 reference rate at 1.50%; 
 lombard rate at 2.50%; 
 deposit rate at 0.50%; 
 rediscount rate at 1.75%. 
 
In the euro area economic recovery continues, yet activity growth remains moderate. 
In the United States – despite slightly weaker recent data – good economic condition s 
prevail and GDP growth in 2016 is expected to be close to last year’s level . In China, 
economic growth has been decelerating gradually, while Russia and Brazil remain in a 
deep recession. Concerns have increased that economic growth in emerging market 
economies might weaken further , which is a key downside risk to global economic 
conditions. In consequence, prices of many financial assets have declined in the global 
markets. This was accompanied by a weakening of emerging market currencies , 
including the zloty. 
Prices of oil and other energy commodities remain low. In effect, inflation in many 
economies – including the euro area – stays close to zero. At the same time, in some 
advanced economies – including the United States – core inflation is markedly higher 
than headline consumer price growth. 
Against this background, the monetary policies in the United States and the euro area 
are diverging . The ECB continues its financial asset purchases and indicates that the 
scale of monetary expansion might be increased in the coming months. At the same time, 
the Federal Reserve’s interest rates are still expected to increase. 
In Poland, preliminary estimate of national accounts for 2015 suggests that GDP 
growth likely increased in 2015 Q4. Domestic demand, fuelled by stable consumption 
growth and rising investment, continues to be the key driver of economic growth. 
Growth is supported by favourable labour market conditions, positive consumer 
sentiment, sound financial standing of enterprises and high capacity utilisation. 
As the output gap remains negative, and wage growth is only moderate, currently 
there are no inflationary pressures in the economy. The annual growth in both consumer 
and producer prices remains negative. Yet , the persistence of deflation results mainly 
from the strong fall in global energy commodity prices in recent quarters. Inflation 
expectations are still very low. However, the persisting deflation has not yet adversely 
affected decisions of economic agents. 
 
 
In the Council’s assessment, CPI inflation will remain negative in the coming months 
due to the depressed prices of global energy commodities. At the same time, a gradual 
increase in core inflation is expected and will be supported by stable economic growth 
amid improving economic activi ty in the euro area and favourable labour market 
conditions. 
The Council decided to keep the NBP interest rates unchanged, assessing that – given 
the available data and forecasts – the current level of interest rates is conducive to 
keeping the Polish econ omy on the sustainable growth path and ensure macroeconomic 
balance. 
A more comprehensive assessment of the outlook for price developments and 
economic growth in the coming quarters will be possible after the Council gets 
acquainted with the March projection of inflation and GDP.