CBR Quarterly Inflation Review - Q4 2009
Central bank: cbr | Type: quarterly_review | Date: 2009-12-31

THE CENTRAL BANK
OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
(BANK OF RUSSIA)
Quarterly
Inflation
Review
2009 Q4
Research and Information Department
The electronic version of Quarterly Inflation Review is available on the Bank of Russia's website :

Contents
Introduction. .................................................................................................................3
Inflation.Dynamics. ........................................................................................................4
Consumer prices ....................................................................................................................... 4
Housing prices .......................................................................................................................... 6
Producer prices ......................................................................................................................... 6
Foreign trade ............................................................................................................................ 8
Demand ................................................................................................................................. 11
Supply .................................................................................................................................... 13
Labour market ......................................................................................................................... 14
Monetary.Conditions...................................................................................................15
Exchange rate ......................................................................................................................... 15
Interest rates ........................................................................................................................... 17
Asset prices ............................................................................................................................ 20
Monetary aggregates ............................................................................................................... 21
Credit aggregates .................................................................................................................... 23
Statistical.Addendum.................................................................................................. 25
2009 Q4 3
Introduction
Inflation in 2009 slowed to the lowest level
since 1991. After a sharp fall from 5.4% in Q1
to 0.7% in Q4, its annualised rate stood at 8.8%.
Significant decline in aggregate demand, caused
by the world financial and economic crisis, was
the decisive factor behind slower inflation. How -
ever , weaker ruble at the end of 2008 and the be-
ginning of 2009 accounted for high inflation rates
in the first half of the year.
To restore economic growth by stimulating
banks’ lending activity, the Bank of Russia in -
creased the refinancing of banks and beginning
from April 2009, it consistently lowered interest
rates on its operations.
The reduction of inflation and inflationary ex-
pectations and the need to maintain the nascent
economic recovery required easing the monetary
policy in 2009 Q4 as well. At the same time, as
the banking sector stabilised, the uncovered loans
extended as an anti-crisis measure began gradu -
ally to be replaced by conventional instruments
used to provide liquidity.
The favourable external economic condi -
tions, capital inflow and seasonal growth in gov -
ernment expenditure also contributed to the rise
of the liquidity level in Q4. These developments
were accompanied by the reduction in interest
rates on the money, stock and credit and deposit
markets.
At the same time, despite the continued
fall in interest rates on all loans to non-financial
organisations, bank lending volumes remained
small. Debt on all categories of loans continued
to decrease in absolute terms in Q4, except the
long-term loans to non-financial organisations
and short-term loans to households. Overall, in
2009 the debt on loans to non-financial organi -
sations increased 0.3%, whereas the debt on
loans to households contracted 11%.
The prolonged slowing of growth in credit to
the non-financial sector (on an annualised basis)
testified to the reduction of medium-term infla -
tion risk created by the monetary factors. Begin -
ning from the second half of 2009, M2 growth
resumed on an annualised basis. In future, infla -
tion risk attributable to the monetary factors will
depend on the extent to which dynamics of the
monetary aggregates will match growth in the
demand for money.
In the short-term, inflation is expected to
continue to slow down as long as domestic de -
mand will go on recovering slowly and exchange
rate dynamics will remain stable.
4 2009 Q4
Inflation Dynamics
Consumer prices
According to the Federal State Statistics Ser -
vice, consumer prices rose 8.8% in 2009 (they
went up 5.4% in Q1, 1.9% in Q2, 0.6% in Q3
and 0.7% in Q4). It was the lowest level regis -
tered since 1991 (consumer prices grew 13.3%
in 2008).
Slower inflation in 2009 may be attributed in
large measure to the reduction of growth in food
prices, excluding vegetable and fruit prices and
the decline in the rate of growth in unregulated
prices. At the same time, growth in non-food
prices, excluding petrol prices, was faster than in
2008.
Core inflation slowed from 13.6% in 2008
to 8.3% in 2009. It ran at 4.3% in Q1, 1.6% in
Q2, 1.3% in Q3 and 1.0% in Q4. Growth in the
prices of goods and services included in the core
inflation calculation accounted for estimated 6.7
percentage points, or 76.4%, of the inflation
rate. In 2008, the respective figures were 10.8
percentage points and 81.5%.
Food prices, excluding vegetable and fruit
prices, rose 6.9% in 2009 as against 17.5% in
2008. Growth in the prices of this group of food
products accounted for estimated 2.4 percentage
points, or 26.7%, of the inflation rate (6.2 per -
centage points and 46.4% in 2008).
Consumer price inflation (%)
Growth (December 2009
on December 2008)
Growth (December 2008
on December 2007)
Prices of goods and services, total: 8.8 13.3 Slowing of growth by 4.5 percentage points
of which:
– food prices 6.1 16.5 Slowing of growth by 10.4 percentage points
– food prices, excluding vegetable and fruit prices 6.9 17.5 Slowing of growth by 10.6 percentage points
– non-food prices 9.7 8.0 Acceleration of growth by 1.7 percentage points
– prices of paid services provided to households 11.6 15.9 Slowing of growth by 4.3 percentage points
Prices of goods and services included in core inflation calculation 8.3 13.6 Slowing of growth by 5.3 percentage points
Source: Rosstat.
Inflation Dynamics
2009 Q4 5
The biggest increase in food prices in 2009
was registered in the price of granulated sugar
(42.7% as against 7.0% in 2008) and fish and
seafood (10.6% as against 15.1%). Growth in
the prices of grain products, meat and poultry,
milk and dairy products and butter varied between
1.6% and 7.9%. This represents a substantial de-
crease from the previous year. Prices of cereals and
legumes, sunflower oil and eggs dropped in the
range of from 2.5% to 19.8% (there was a rise in
the prices of these products in 2008).
Throughout 2009, the world market regis -
tered growth in the prices of sugar , vegetable oil,
maize, barley, rice and beef. There was a particu-
larly high rise in sugar prices: the price of raw sug-
ar went up 140% and refined sugar 110% in De-
cember 2009 as compared with December 2008
(the respective figures a year earlier were 3.8%
and 9.8%). Beef prices increased 13.3% (a year
earlier they fell 6.0%), while pork prices remained
virtually unchanged, just as in 2008. Wheat and
poultry prices dropped in December 2009: com -
pared with the same period of 2008, the price of
US wheat was down 6.3% (in December 2008,
it decreased by 1.7 times) and poultry prices fell
5.6% (they grew 13.1% in 2008). As a result,
the prices of the monitored food products and ag-
ricultural raw materials increased by 1.2 times on
average in December 2009 (in December 2008,
they remained virtually unchanged).
Vegetable and fruit prices went down
1.7% on the domestic market in 2009. In the
previous five years, they rose at the rate of 3.3-
22.2% and in 2008 they increased 7.7%. Es -
timates show that the fall in vegetable and fruit
prices had little effect on the general level of con-
sumer prices. Over the past year , growth in veg -
etable and fruit prices accounted for 0.3 percent-
age points, or 2.2% of consumer price inflation.
Overall food prices grew 6.1% in 2009 as
against 16.5% in 2008.
Non-food prices increased 9.7% in 2009
as against 8.0% in 2008. Their growth accounted
for estimated 3.6 percentage points, or 41.0%,
of the inflation rate (as against 2.9 percentage
points and 21.6% in 2008). The most significant
increase was registered in the prices of tobacco
products (18.7% as against 16.1% in 2008),
medicines (17.6% as against 16.4%) and deter-
gents (12.6% as against 17.5%). Petrol prices
went up 8.0% as against 1.2% in 2008.
Paid service prices rose 11.6% in 2009
as against 15.9% in 2008 and this increase ac -
counted for estimated 2.9 percentage points, or
33.0%, of overall consumer price growth (4.0
percentage points and 29.8% in 2008).
Administered service prices went up by an
estimated 14.6% in 2009 as against 14.5% in
2008. Rent and utilities prices gained 19.6%, an
increase of 3.2 percentage points on 2008. Pas -
senger transport fares were up 6.5% as against
22.5% in 2008.
There was a slowing of growth in the prices
of all major services included in the core consumer
Food price inflation (%)
Growth (December 2009
on December 2008)
Growth (December 2008
on December 2007)
Food products 6.1 16.5 Slowing of growth by 10.4 percentage points
Bread and bakery products 2.4 25.9 Slowing of growth by 23.5 percentage points
Cereals and legumes -2.5 25.8 …
Pasta 1.6 33.8 Slowing of growth by 32.2 percentage points
Meat and poultry 5.0 22.2 Slowing of growth by 17.2 percentage points
Fish and seafood 10.6 15.1 Slowing of growth by 4.5 percentage points
Milk and dairy products 2.3 12.2 Slowing of growth by 9.9 percentage points
Butter 7.9 10.5 Slowing of growth by 2.6 percentage points
Sunflower oil -19.8 22.1 …
Granulated sugar 42.7 7.0 Acceleration of growth by 35.7 percentage points
Vegetables and fruit -1.7 7.7 …
Alcoholic beverages 8.9 10.9 Slowing of growth by 2.0 percentage points
Source: Rosstat.
6 2009 Q4
price inflation calculation. It was particularly no -
ticeable in the prices of healthcare, physical cul -
ture and sport services and foreign travel.
Growth in paid service prices in 2009 ex -
ceeded by 3.7 percentage points the overall con-
sumer price increase (3.5 percentage points in
2008).
Rosstat data show that in 2009 consumer
price growth was smaller than a year earlier in all
federal districts.
Estimates indicate that differences have in -
creased between the Russian regions in terms of
the price of the fixed set of goods and services
used by the Federal State Statistics Service for in -
terregional comparisons of the purchasing power
of the population. Specifically, the regional differ-
ence ratio1 reached 43.1% in December 2009 as
against 40.0% a year earlier.
The rates of growth in food prices differed
slightly by federal district in 2009 - from 4.8% to
7.4% (in 2008, from 15.8% to 18.0%). Non-
food prices increased within the 8.9-10.9%
range (in 2008, within 7.4-9.9% range). Growth
in paid service prices slowed year on year in all
federal districts.
1 The regional difference ratio is calculated by the Bank of
Russia as the difference between the cost of a fixed set of
goods and services in the most and least expensive regions
relative to the national average cost of the set.
Housing prices
Housing prices dropped 7.6% in December
2009 year on year on the primary market and
11.0% on the secondary one (in 2008, hous -
ing prices rose 10.3% on the primary market and
15.3% on the secondary one).
Housing price dynamics in 2009 was af -
fected by the contraction of demand amid the
financial and economic crisis. This is confirmed,
among other things, by the 6.7% year-on-year
fall in housing construction (in 2008, housing
construction grew 4.6% year on year).
Producer prices
Industrial producer prices went up 13.9%
in 2009, whereas in 2008 they fell 7.0%. In
the mining sector , producer prices rose 49.2%,
whereas in 2008 they dropped 38.4%. The cor -
responding percentages in the fuel and energy
sector were 61.0% and 42.2%.
Prices in the production and distribution
of electricity, gas and water increased 18.3% in
2009, a rise of 0.3 percentage points on the pre-
vious year.
Producer prices in the manufacturing sec -
tor rose 5.9% in 2009 as against 1.9% a year
earlier. The most significant growth in prices was
registered in the production of petroleum prod -
ucts (they grew 28.9%, whereas in 2008 they
declined 27.7%). There was slower growth in
producer prices in the consumer goods sector.
Price growth in the production of food products,
including beverages, and tobacco slowed by 5.5
Inflation Dynamics
2009 Q4 7
Freight charges went up 17.4% in 2009
as against 32.3% in 2008. Freight railway fares
grew 10.6% as against 22.1% a year earlier.
Communications fees for corporates were
up 2.1% in 2009 as against 11.5% in 2008.
percentage points year on year , to 6.8%, in the
textile and clothing industry by 5.3 percentage
points to 5.5% and in the production of leather ,
leather goods and footwear by 3.5 percentage
points to 4.9%.
Inflation in countries trading with Russia1
Most of Russia’s trading partners saw inflation slow down in 2009 (Japan registered a fall in consumer
prices). Inflation in the countries accounting for a significant portion of Russian imports decreased from 4.9% in
December 2008 to 3.3% in December 2009. Slower inflation in Ukraine made the biggest contribution to this
decline.
Inflationary pressure decreased in the countries trading with Russia in 2009 as a result of a fall in business
activity. The leading industrialised nations retained sustained positive rates of core inflation, which precludes
the most volatile elements, such as the changes in the fluctuating energy and food prices. Core inflation in each
reporting month of 2009, calculated against the cor-
responding month of 2008, ranged from 1.4% to
1.9% in the United States and from 1.0% to 1.8% in
the eurozone (in 2008, it varied between 1.8% and
2.5% in the United States and between 1.6% and
2.0%n in the eurozone).
Slower inflation in foreign countries in 2009
was the result of the reduction of the annual aver -
age level of prices on the world markets for energy
resources, non-energy raw materials and farm prod-
ucts. However, exchange commodity price dynamics
was uneven during the year. At the end of the first
quarter and in the second quarter, prices of these
goods started to gradually rise again and push infla-
tion rates up. In Q4, inflation in the countries trading
with Russia was strongly impacted by the low statis-
tics base of the corresponding period of the previ -
ous year, when the financial and economic crisis had
reached its peak.
1 According to data reported by national statistics agencies of Russia’s trading partners.
8 2009 Q4
half of 2008 continued through 2009. In Decem-
ber 2009, the average price of oil 3 on the world
market was 80% higher than a year earlier; Rus -
sia’s Urals crude was up 90%. On October 22, the
price of Urals reached the year’s high of $78.1 per
barrel.
The major factor of oil price growth in 2009
was the raising throughout the year of oil demand
forecasts as the situation in the world economy
began to improve in the middle of the year amid
the reduction of oil supply, especially by the OPEC
member countries. In addition, the oil market was
affected by the US dollar dynamics against other
major world currencies, which impacted the pric-
es of dollar-denominated exchange commodities
and made commodity markets increasingly at -
tractive for speculative and investment capital.
In 2009 Q4, the price of Urals crude rose
9.2% quarter on quarter , to $74.0 per barrel. It
was higher by 40.3% than in the same quarter of
2008. However , its average price in 2009 ($60.7
per barrel) was by 35.4% lower than a year ear -
lier (in 2008, it was by 35.1% higher than a year
earlier).
Price dynamics on the petroleum products
market was virtually the same as on the oil mar -
ket, but the prices of individual petroleum prod -
ucts grew at different rates. The most significant
increase in 2009 Q4, as compared with Q3, was
registered in the price of fuel oil (11.1%) and
diesel fuel (9.5%); petrol prices went up 3.7%.
On the whole, petroleum product prices in 2009
were lower than in 2008. The most significant fall
was registered in the price of diesel fuel, which
decreased 44.7% (a year earlier it rose 48.0%).
Petrol was down 30.5% and fuel oil 24.2%
(in 2008, the prices of these products rose 19.0%
and 36.2% respectively).
The fall in natural gas prices in Europe,
which had begun late in 2008, continued up to
July 2009. In August, they started to rise and in
2009 Q4 the price of European natural gas was
by 13.0% higher than in Q3. On the whole, in
2009 the price of natural gas in Europe was by
35.0% lower that a year earlier (in 2008, it was
by 56.7% higher than a year earlier).
In the second half of 2009, the world market
registered a rise in coal prices: in Q4 they were by
3 Average price of Brent, Dubai and WTI brands of crude.
Producer prices of building materials
edged up 0.1%, whereas a year earlier they in -
creased 16.9%.
Agricultural producer prices declined
1.8%, whereas a year earlier they rose 2.5%.
Crop grower prices declined 6.6% as against
2.6% in 2008. Grain prices were down 13.4%,
whereas sunflower prices inched up 0.4% (in
2008, grain prices were down 4.6% and sun -
flower prices 13.4%). Livestock prices increased
1.5% as against 6.1% in 2008. Cattle and poultry
prices rose 5.6% as against 17.4% in 2008, milk
prices were up 1.4% (in 2008, they fell 9.2%)
and prices of eggs declined 15.6% (in 2008, they
increased 10.5%).
Foreign trade
The price situation on the world markets for
major Russian exports 2 continued to improve in
2009 Q4. However , despite growth in the prices
of most products, their average levels were lower
by about a third in 2009 than a year earlier (in
2008, they were 1.4 times higher).
The tendency towards growth in world oil
prices that followed their downturn in the second
2 Average prices are based on data reported daily by the fol-
lowing news agencies and exchanges: Reuters for oil, the
Financial Times for petroleum products, petrol, diesel fuel
and fuel oil) and the London Metal Exchange for non-ferrous
metals (aluminium, copper and nickel). Ferrous metal prices
have been gauged on the basis of price indices, while prices
of natural gas and other commodities are the monthly aver-
ages published by the World Bank and IMF .
Inflation Dynamics
2009 Q4 9
8.9% higher than in Q3 and in Q3 they were by
7.3% higher than in Q2. Overall, the price of coal
in 2009 was by 43.5% lower than in the previous
year (in 2008, it was by 93.4% higher than a year
earlier).
The main factor of the year-long fall in the
world prices of ferrous metals was an unfavour -
able economic situation in most of the principal
metal-consuming countries. According to the
World Steel Association (WSA), steel produc -
tion in 2009 declined 8% to 1.2 billion tonnes
amid the economic recession. This is the lowest
level since 2005. However , in the second half of
2009 world demand for steel began gradually
to recover , slowing the fall in ferrous metal pric -
es. The price downturn was also the result of the
decreased prices of raw materials for the produc-
tion of ferrous metals (the price of iron ore on the
world market slumped 28.2% in 2009, 4 where-
as in 2008 it rose 66.0%). In 2009 Q4, ferrous
metal prices were by 1.6% lower than in Q3 and
in Q3 it was by 2.2% lower than in Q2 (in Q1, it
was by 11.5% lower than in the previous quarter
and in Q2 it was by 21.5% lower than in Q1). On
the whole, in 2009 ferrous metal prices declined
21.5% year on year (in 2008, they grew 59.0%).
The world non-ferrous metal market in 2009
saw aluminium, copper and nickel prices rise
mostly, but the full-year result was, as in 2008,
their year-on-year decline. The main reason for
4 The price of iron ore on the world market is set for a year.
price growth was the gradual weakening of the
crisis effect on the ferrous metal-consuming in -
dustries and the corresponding increase in de -
mand for non-ferrous metals. In addition, situ -
ation on the world commodity and exchange
markets stimulated growth in investment demand
for these metals. Another contributing factor was
the contraction of the world output of aluminium,
the replenishment of China’s government nickel
stocks and the reduction of production by Chile’s
state-controlled corporation Codelco, the world’s
largest producer of copper. Growth in the price
of aluminium slowed from 21.3% in 2009 Q3 to
10.6% in Q4, and copper from 25.4% to 13.4%,
while nickel prices remained virtually unchanged
(in Q3 they gained 35.2%). Despite price growth
during the year , the price of aluminium in 2009
fell 35.3% year on year , copper was down 25.8%
and nickel 30.6% (in 2008, aluminium was down
2.3%, copper 2.4% and nickel 43.1%).
Prices of other raw materials exported by
Russia were also affected by the world economic
situation and the state of world commodity mar -
kets. Prices of mineral fertilizer , chemical raw ma-
terials and some other commodities in 2009 were
much lower than in 2008.
World market prices of food products and
agricultural raw materials5 had different dynamics
in 2009. Sugar prices rose rapidly throughout the
year. Poor harvest in the leading sugar-producing
countries, Brazil and India, was the chief factor (in
2009, India became a net importer of sugar). In
addition, sugar production declined in some other
countries, such as the EU, as a result of the reforms
carried out in this industry. Meanwhile, world de-
mand for sugar kept rising, although the crisis
had somewhat slowed its pace. The contraction of
world sugar stocks caused prices to hit new highs
in 2009 (in December 2009, the world price of
raw sugar reached $538 per tonne and refined
sugar $634 per tonne). In Q4, however , the rise
in sugar prices slowed on the world market and
compared to the previous quarter , the price of raw
sugar increased 17.0% and refined sugar 16.8%
(this compares to the rise of 36.4% and 25.3%
in Q3 respectively). On average, the price of raw
5 Average sugar prices have been calculated on the basis of
data compiled daily by the London Commodity Exchange,
other prices are monthly averages published by the World
Bank and IMF .
10 2009 Q4
clined at a slow pace owing to the reduction of ex-
ports from Thailand, the world’s largest exporter
of rice on the world market. In Q4, however , the
world market registered a rise in the prices of vir-
tually all grains. The price of Canadian wheat went
up 4.5% quarter on quarter , US maize 10.9%,
Canadian barley 19.3% and Thai rice 0.6%. Only
the price of US wheat fell, by 1.6%. As a result, in
2009 the prices of all grains, except rice, were on
average lower by a third than a year earlier; the
price of rice was lower by 14.6% (a year earlier ,
grain prices rose 30% on average, while the price
of rice doubled).
Livestock prices fell in 2009 as growth in de-
mand slowed owing to the economic problems
faced by the leading meat consumers during the
crisis, the drop in fodder prices and the year-on-
year decline in energy and fuel prices. However ,
sugar went up 51.7% in 2009 year on year and
the price of refined sugar grew 40.9% (a year
earlier , the respective percentages were 14.8%
and 14.0%).
After a fall in Q3, vegetable oil prices rose
again in Q4. The price of palm oil increased 7.9%
quarter on quarter , though in 2009 it was on av-
erage by 28.0% lower than in 2008 (a year ear -
lier , it was by 21.6% higher than in the previous
year).
There was no pronounced trend in world
grain prices in 2009. The principal factor of the
grain market development was the bumper har -
vest for the second consecutive year , which led
to the expansion of grain stocks, price downturn
and higher consumption. The world rice market in
2009 saw prices mostly fall for the same reasons
they did on other grain markets. Rice prices de -
International trade
IMF and OECD estimates (November 2009-January 2010) indicate that the volume of international trade
in goods and services contracted 12.3-12.5% in 2009. World oil consumption decreased by an estimated 1.5%
in 2009, according to International Energy Agency. The average price of Brent, Dubai and WTI crude brands fell
36.3% to $61.8 per barrel in 2009 as against $97.0 per barrel in 2008.
The International Energy Agency has estimated that oil consumption in Europe declined 4.5% in 2009.
Consumption decreased in the first half of the year but recovered in the second. According to Eurostat data, oil
and petroleum products import volumes shrank significantly in the EU countries in the first two months of 2009,
but in the subsequent period it stabilised at the January-February levels. The average annual level of prices of EU
oil and petroleum products imports declined as a result of the sharp fall in the period of from August 2008 to
January 2009, but in February prices began to gradually rise. Price dynamics of EU oil and petroleum products
imports, including imports from Russia, was primarily affected by changing prices. The contract price of natural
gas Russia exported to Germany in 2009 was on average by 32.5% lower than in 2008.
Inflation Dynamics
2009 Q4 11
beef prices rose throughout the year , as the world’s
cattle population decreased and consumption
remained high in China, India and the countries
of Latin America and South East Asia. The world
poultry market situation was affected by a slight
fall in output and exports by the United States
and Brazil, the world’s leading poultry producers
and exporters. In 2009 Q4, beef prices stabilised,
pork prices rose and poultry prices went down.
Quarter on quarter , the price of beef increased
0.1% and pork 5.6%, while poultry prices were
down 5.0%. On average, beef and pork prices in
2009 dropped 16.0% and 13.7% respectively,
while poultry prices grew 1.2% (a year earlier ,
the price of beef was up 20.6%, pork 1.5% and
poultry 8.2%).
Russia’s terms of trade improved in 2009 Q4
as compared with Q3, but in 2009 as a whole
they were considerably worse than in 2008.
Russia’s trade surplus6 continued to increase
in Q4, but in 2009 as a whole it contracted by
1.6 times year on year , to $110.6 billion. Exports
of goods declined slightly more than imports
(35.7% as against 34.0%).
Demand
Domestic demand
Domestic demand contracted significantly in
2009. There was a decline in fixed capital invest -
6 According to the balance of payments estimate as of Janu-
ary 13, 2010.
ment, a contraction in stocks and a fall in consum-
er spending.
The share of imported products in the retail
trade sector’s commodity resources contracted by
4 percentage points in January-September 2009,
as compared with the same period of 2008, and
stood at 42%. The share of imported food prod -
ucts decreased by a percentage point to 34% and
non-food imports by 5 percentage points to 49%.
In 2009, imports declined by a third, mostly
owing to the contraction of import volumes. Im -
ports of investment goods decreased more than
imports of consumer goods. However , in the sec-
ond half of the year imports began to gradually
recover and in Q4 the contraction of import vol -
umes decreased 18.1% year on year , whereas the
nine-month fall was 42.4%.
Household real disposable money income
rose 1.9% year on year in 2009, just as in 2008.
The public propensity for consumption declined
as the economic situation remained unstable. The
share of household spending on goods and ser -
vices in the money income consumption structure
contracted by 4.9 percentage points to 69.2%
and the share of spending on the purchase of
foreign exchange decreased by 2.4 percentage
points to 5.5%. The public propensity for organ -
ised savings registered 14.2% as against 5.3% in
2008, in which deposits and securities accounted
for 4.1%.
Household spending on final consumption
declined 8.1% in 2009, whereas in 2008 it grew
10.7%. In Q4, the rate of decline in consumer ex-
penses was slower than in Q3. Retail trade turn -
over shrank 5.5% in 2009 year on year and the
value of paid services provided to households was
down 4.3%.
Government expenditures on final consump-
tion increased 1.9% in 2009 as against 2.9% in
2008. According to the Federal Treasury’s data,
federal budget expenditure grew from 18.4%
of GDP in 2008 to 24.7% in 2009. Non-interest
expenditures made up 24.2% of GDP as against
18.0% in 2008. This represents the highest ra -
tio in a decade and it is attributable mostly to the
implementation of anti-crisis measures in sup -
port of the real sector and financial system during
the financial and economic crisis. Federal budget
non-interest expenditures in 2009 accounted for
97.2% of the updated budget plan for 2009,
12 2009 Q4
which represents a slight decrease on the previ -
ous year’s level of 97.8%.
In 2009, Russia registered a federal bud -
get deficit of 5.9% of GDP , whereas in 2008 she
had a surplus of 4.1% of GDP . The reduction of
the federal budget balance at the end of 2008
and the emergence of a budget deficit and its
growth in 2009 owing to the implementation of
the economic stimulus measures by the Govern -
ment testify to the easing of the fiscal policy. At
the same time, this accords with the necessity of
implementing a budget policy of a countercyclical
nature.
A total of 2,964.8 billion rubles were allocat-
ed from the Reserve Fund in 2009 to finance the
federal budget balance and 179.4 billion rubles
were allocated to create an oil and gas transfer to
the federal budget. A part of the National Welfare
Fund (209.0 billion rubles and 2.0 billion US dol-
lars) was deposited with Vneshekonombank.
Gross capital formation contracted 37.6% in
2009, whereas in 2008 it increased 10.6%. Fixed
capital investment declined 17.0%, whereas in
2008 it grew 9.8%.
Machinery, equipment and transport vehicles
accounted for more than a third in the investment
structure in January-September 2009. The share
of investments made to acquire imported equip -
ment expanded from 19.9% in January-Septem-
ber 2008, to 23.0% in the same period last year.
Imports of machinery, equipment and transport
vehicles decreased 53.9% in January-September
2009, whereas in the same period of 2008 they
increased 56.6%.
Economic growth in foreign countries1
GDP in the group of countries accounting for a significant portion of Russian exports contracted by an es-
timated 3.9% in 2009, whereas in 2008 it grew 2.3%. Preliminary data indicate that US GDP shrank 2.4% and
eurozone GDP 4.0%, whereas China’s GDP increased 8.7% as against 9.6% in 2008. According to the IMF and
World Bank estimates (January 2010), the world production of goods and services declined 0.8-1.0% in 2009.
Many western countries, Russia’s leading trading partners, saw their economies shrink in 2009, but little by
little economic conditions in them stabilised. Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth resumed in the largest European
economies (Germany and France) and in Japan in Q2, in the eurozone, including Italy, and in the United States
in Q3 and in the UK in Q4, according to preliminary data. Industrial growth resumed in Japan in March, in the
eurozone in May and in the United States in July. Signs of recovery appeared on the real estate markets and in
housing construction. China retained favourable GDP dynamics in 2009 owing to continued growth in domestic
demand and investment.
1 According to data compiled by the national statistics agencies of Russia’s trading partners.
GDP consumption
(growth as % of corresponding period of previous year)
2007 2008 2009
GDP 8.1 5.6 -7.9
Final consumption 11.1 8.5 -5.4
Of which:
– households 13.9 10.7 -8.1
Gross capital formation 21 10.6 -37.6
Net exports -27.2 -35.7 58.0
Source: Rosstat.
Inflation Dynamics
2009 Q4 13
Fixed capital investment was financed mostly
by raised funds (61.7%). Bank credit accounted
for 11.1% as against 11.0% in January-Septem-
ber 2008.
As exports declined more slowly than im -
ports, net exports increased 58% in 2009,
whereas in 2008 it declined 35.7%.
Foreign demand
Foreign demand for Russian goods began
to gradually recover in the second half of 2009.
In Q4, export volumes expanded 11.9% year on
year as against 0.2% in the previous quarter. Rus-
sian export dynamics in 2009 was affected sig -
nificantly by the price fall on world commodity
markets. Compared to the previous year , exports
of goods contracted 35.7% to $303.3 billion.7 In
2009 Q4, exports grew 15.4% quarter on quar -
ter owing to the expansion of export volumes and
price growth. Exports to the EU and CIS member
countries grew more slowly than to the Asia-
Pacific Economic Co-operation member states.
Russia increased exports most significantly to its
major trading partners such as Germany, Finland,
Poland, Japan, South Korea and Ukraine. Russian
exports to the UK declined. There was an expan -
sion of Russian export volumes of oil, petroleum
products, natural gas and some other products in
2009 Q4 as compared with Q3.
Supply
Production decline slowed down in the main
economic activities in 2009 Q4. Output in the key
economic activity categories contracted 2.6% as
compared with the same period a year earlier ,
but the overall decline in 2009 stood at 9.4% as
against an increase of 4.3% in 2008.
Production decline slowed down in indus -
try, construction and retail and wholesale trade
in 2009 Q4 and growth was registered in trans -
port and agriculture. However , in 2009 output
contracted 16.0% year on year in construction,
10.2% in transport, 5.5% in retail trade and
3.5% in wholesale trade.
Industrial output fell 10.8% in 2009, where-
as in 2008 it grew 2.1%. Output in the mining
sector was down 1.2% as against an increase of
0.2% in 2008. The most significant decline was
7 According to the balance of payments estimate as of Janu-
ary 13, 2010.
registered in the production of raw materials other
than fuel and energy. Output in the manufactur -
ing sector declined 16.0%, whereas in 2008 it in-
creased 3.2%. However , 2009 Q4 saw growth in
the output of chemicals (17.6%), leather goods
(9.6%), metallurgy products (8.7%), food prod-
ucts (4.3%) and coke and petroleum products
(1.7%).
There was a rise in the output of major live -
stock products in 2009, including cattle and poul-
try (6.6%). The output of meat and meat products
increased 4.2%, of which the production of meat,
including premium-quality by-products, rose
14.0%. Grain production declined 10.3% year
on year , but it was higher than the 2005-2008
average annual grain output. Overall, agricultural
output rose 1.2% in 2009 as against 10.8% in
2008. As of the beginning of 2010, grain stocks
at agricultural, procurement and processing en -
terprises were by 4.5% larger than a year earlier.
According to The Russian Economic Barom -
eter , the rate of production capacity utilisation in
2009 Q3 was 67%, an increase on Q2. In No -
vember , it was 70%. On top of the list in terms of
the rate of capacity utilisation were enterprises in
the timber and wood-working sector (76%), the
light industry (75%) and food industry (73%).
The lowest rate was registered at enterprises pro-
ducing building materials (49%).
The contraction of foreign and domestic de -
mand brought about a fall in business activity. The
production of goods and services fell below its na-
14 2009 Q4
tional (potential) level. GDP shank 7.9% in 2009.
The gap between actual and potential output was
negative.
Labour market
The number of people employed in the econ-
omy decreased 2.2% in 2009 (in 2008, it rose
0.5%). Labour productivity declined by an es -
timated 5.8%, whereas in 2008 it grew 5.1%.
The rates of decline in labour productivity in the
services sector in January-September 2009 were
lower than in the manufacturing sector. The out -
put of goods declined faster than the production
of services. The number of employed in the ser -
vices sector decreased year on year less than in the
manufacturing sector.
Real wage contracted 2.8% in 2009, where-
as in 2008 it rose 11.5%. In Q4, the pace of
decline slowed down. Real wage declined more
slowly than labour productivity.
The share of wages and salaries in the GDP
structure expanded from 47.3% in 2008 to
51.9% in 2009.
Substantial differences remained in the com-
pensation levels in various activity categories.
The highest average monthly wage in January-
November 2009 was registered in the financial
sector (40,334 rubles) and in the fuel and energy
sector (39,901 rubles). Compensation in these
sectors exceeded the national average by 2.2
times. The lowest wages were registered in agri -
culture, hunting and forestry (9,334 rubles), tex-
tile and clothing industry (8,871 rubles) and the
production of leather , leather goods and footwear
(9,745 rubles). These wage levels make up 51%,
48% and 53% of the national average respec -
tively. Below-average wages and salaries were
registered in the sectors largely financed from the
federal budget (education, utilities, public and
personal services, healthcare and social services)
and in the manufacturing sector , construction,
wholesale and retail trade and car and other repair
services.
Growth in the total number of unemployed
slowed in Q4, but in 2009, as compared with
2008, the number of unemployed increased
31.7%. As of the end of 2009, it accounted
for 8.2% of the economically active population
(7.8% as of the end of 2008).
2009 Q4 15
dollar against the ruble was 30.1851. In Janu -
ary 2010, no significant changes were registered
in the ruble/dollar nominal exchange rate. As of
February 1, 2010, the official rate of the US dollar
against the ruble was 30.4312.
The nominal euro/ruble exchange rate
rose 2.8% in October-December after it fell 2.1%
in 2009 Q3. The ruble’s appreciation against the
eurozone currency was registered throughout Oc-
tober and November , when the Russian currency
gained 2.7% and 1.1% respectively, whereas in
December the ruble lost 1.4% of its value against
the euro. In January 2010, the nominal rate of the
ruble against the euro appreciated 2.3% and as a
result, as of February 1, 2010, the official rate of
the euro stood at 42.4637 rubles.
The ruble value of the bi-currency bas -
ket, determined by US dollar/ruble and euro/
ruble dynamics, reached 36.1590 rubles as of
January 1, 2010. As of February 1, 2010, it was
down to 35.8458 rubles.
The nominal effective rate of the ruble
against foreign currencies gained 3.5% in Oc -
tober-December after the 1.0% fall in 2009 Q3.
Taking into consideration the slower rates of the
ruble’s appreciation against the euro registered in
the quarter under review, one can note significant
Exchange rate
In 2009 Q4, ruble exchange rate on the do -
mestic foreign exchange market remained stable
amid the continued upward trend due to the fa -
vourable energy price dynamics. In that situation,
the Bank of Russia continued to conduct opera -
tions on the currency market to cushion ruble ex-
change rate fluctuations.
According to preliminary data, the current
account surplus stood at $15.6 billion in 2009 Q4
and $47.5 billion in 2009 as a whole. A net pri -
vate sector capital inflow estimated at $11.6 bil -
lion was registered in October-December , where-
as in 2009 Q3 there was a net capital outflow of
$33.4 billion. Russia’s international reserves in -
creased 6.2% in Q4 and reached $439.0 billion
as of January 1, 2010.
The nominal ruble/dollar exchange rate
rose 6.3% in 2009 Q4 as against 2.8% in Q3.
The ruble’s appreciation against the dollar by
4.5% in October and 1.7% in November amid
the significant improvement of the external eco -
nomic conditions was followed by the 3.2% de -
preciation in the national currency in December ,
which may be attributable to slower growth in oil
prices and a technical correction on the market.
As of January 1, 2010, the official rate of the US
Monetary Conditions
16 2009 Q4
the inflationary differential to the real ruble/euro
rate dynamics also decreased compared with the
quarter that preceded the quarter under review.
The ruble continued to appreciate against the
euro in real terms in January 2010, gaining an es-
timated 3.8%.
The real effective rate of the ruble against
foreign currencies rose 3.0% in 2009 Q4,
whereas in Q3 it remained virtually unchanged.
The real rate of the ruble against the currencies of
Russia’s major trading partners increased 2.7% in
October and 0.8% in November , whereas in De-
cember it fell 1.8%. Preliminary data indicate that
growth in the nominal rate of the ruble against the
currencies of Russia’s non-eurozone trading part-
ners.
The real rate of the ruble against the US
dollar rose 6.4% in Q4 (it gained 3.3% in Q3).
The ruble’s rally against the dollar in real terms
was largely due to the corresponding dynamics of
the nominal exchange rate. According to prelimi-
nary data, in January 2010 the ruble appreciated
1.8% against the dollar in real terms.
The real effective rate of the ruble against
the euro rose 2.9% in October-December after
the 0.8% fall in 2009 Q3. The contribution of
International currency market
The euro gained 7.5% against the US dollar
on the international currency market in 2009 (De -
cember to December 2008). Among the curren -
cies of Russia’s major trading partners that rallied
against the dollar and the euro were the Brazilian
real, South Korean won, Swedish krona and Swiss
franc. The pound sterling/euro rate remained virtu -
ally unchanged. The Japanese yen, Czech koruna,
Polish zloty, Hungarian forint, Turkish lira and Indian
rupee appreciated against the dollar but depreci -
ated against the euro. The factor behind the dollar’s
depreciation in 2009 was the return of short-term
capital from safer to riskier segments of the market
as the situation on world financial markets stabilised.
The yuan/dollar rate was stable since the middle of
2008 at 6.82-6.85 yuan to the dollar. The Ukrainian
hryvnia, Kazakhstan tenge and Belarusian ruble de -
clined against the dollar and the euro in 2009.
Monetary Conditions
2009 Q4 17
The average quarterly overnight ruble MIACR fell
from 6.8% p.a. in Q3 to 5.4% p.a. in Q4. During
Q4, except December 31 when it plunged to an
abnormally low level, the overnight ruble MIACR
in January 2010 the real effective rate of the ruble
gained 2.5% against foreign currencies.
It has been estimated that the ruble ex -
change rate against foreign currencies, which in
2009 Q4 had an upward trend, will contribute to
the slowing of consumer price inflation by 0.3-
0.4 percentage points in 2010.
Interest rates
As inflation and inflationary expectations
changed for the better in October-December
2009, the Bank of Russia continued to cut in -
terest rates on its operations for making credit
more accessible for economic agents and stimu -
lating final demand. The overnight rate was cut
from 10.0% to 8.75% p.a., ‘tom-next’ deposit
rate from 4.75% to 3.5% p.a. and minimum
1-day repo rate from 7.25% to 6.0% p.a. In Jan-
uary 2010, the Bank of Russia made no changes
in its interest rates.
Average interbank rates on ruble loans
with different terms to redemption declined in Q4.
Liquidity situation and Bank of Russia operations
The situation on the money market remained stable in 2009 Q4 and in January 2010 and the level of
banking sector liquidity was high. The volume of operations and debt on refinancing instruments contracted sig-
nificantly as the average level of aggregate banking sector reserves increased as a result of growth in net foreign
assets and net claims on the government sector.
Bank of Russia’s average daily claims on credit institutions on the instruments of liquidity provided in Oc -
tober-December 2009 decreased from 1.3 trillion rubles in Q3 to 0.8 trillion rubles. The share of uncollater -
alised loans in Bank of Russia claims on credit institutions contracted from 42.3% in Q3 to 27.6% in Q4, while
the share of loans extended against the collateral of
‘non-market’ assets and guarantees expanded from
42.2% to 51.2% and the share of repo operations
from 11.5% to 17.0%. In January 2010, average
daily claims further declined by about 100 billion
rubles and the share of uncovered loans in them con-
tracted to 22.7%. At the same time, Bank of Russia
average daily debt to credit institutions on liquidity
absorption instruments increased from about 340
billion rubles in Q3 to 410 billion rubles in Q4 and to
920 billion rubles in January 2010.
Amid favourable macroeconomic and banking
sector stability indicators and the overall reduction
of systemic risk, the Bank of Russia took the deci -
sion to limit credit institutions’ possibilities to receive
unsecured loans and gradually replace them by the
conventional methods of providing liquidity. For this
purpose, the Bank of Russia on February 1, 2010,
lowered the credit risk limits set for each credit in -
stitution. In addition, it raised some of the minimum
credit ratings credit institutions must have to receive
uncollateralised loans.
18 2009 Q4
Foreign central bank policies
Since December 2008, the US Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark federal funds rate within the
range of from 0% to 0.25% p.a. On March 2009, it began to conduct operations in which the benchmark was
the volume of interventions in the form of open-market purchases of government bonds and mortgage agen -
cies’ securities. The Bank of England and Bank of Japan conducted liquidity-boosting operations, as the key
monetary policy interest rate in Britain was cut down to 0.5% p.a. in March 2009 and Japan kept it unchanged
at 0.1% p.a. since December 2008.
In the first half of 2009, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the refinance rate from 2.5% to 1% p.a. In
addition to the key refinancing operations, the ECB conducted in 2009 special operations to inject liquidity into
banks for a period of 3 months to 1 year. Many emerging market countries, including Ukraine and Kazakhstan,
cut interest rates. The National Bank of the Republic of Belarus raised in January 2009 the refinance rate from
12% to 14% p.a., but in December cut it to 13.5% p.a. The People’s Bank of China kept on hold the benchmark
interest rates on yuan-denominated deposits and loans in 2009.
Monetary Conditions
2009 Q4 19
erage rate on household short-term ruble depos-
its declined by 0.6 percentage points quarter on
quarter and stood at 10.2% p.a. The average rate
on ruble household long-term deposits dropped
by half a percentage point to 10.7% p.a.
The average quarterly interest rate on ruble
household long-term loans fell in Q4 by 0.7 per-
centage points quarter on quarter , to 19.5% p.a.
The average short-term credit rate was down by
0.1 percentage points to 30.5% p.a.
Interest rates on loans to non-financial or-
ganisations with all terms continued to decline.
The average quarterly rate on long-term loans
fell over that period by 1.1 percentage points to
ranged between 4.0% and 7.1% p.a. (in Q3, it
varied between 5.9% and 8.6% p.a.). In January
2010, it changed between 2.9% and 5.4% p.a.
The average overnight ruble MIACR stood at 4.0%
p.a. in January, a fall of 1.1 percentage points on
December. The interest rate on ruble interbank
loans placed by Russian banks for a term of 2-7
days declined from 7.0% p.a. in Q3 to 5.4% p.a.
in Q4, the rate on 8-30 day loans fell from 9.4%
to 6.8% p.a. and the rate on 1-3-month loans
was down from 10.2% to 8.8% p.a.
Interest rates on household deposits with
all terms, except deposits with terms of over 3
years, started to fall in Q4. In that period, the av -
20 2009 Q4
14.7% p.a. In Q4, the average short-term rate was
down by 1.0 percentage point on Q3 and stood
at 13.9% p.a. The most significant fall in interest
rates was on loans with terms up to 1 month and
from 1 year to 3 years (by 1.2 percentage points
and by 1.4 percentage points respectively). The
yield curve for loans to non-financial organisa -
tions in Q4 was rising in the up-to-6-months sec-
tor and falling in the longer-term sector , moving
down throughout its length.
Asset prices
In Q4, securities prices on the Russian stock
market rose much more slowly than in Q3. Dur -
ing the first 20 days of October , share prices
rapidly increased and in the last 10 days of that
month and up to the end of December they fluc -
tuated within a wide range amid market partici -
pants’ higher expectation of ‘overheating’ and
an inevitable price downturn caused by negative
external and internal factors. As of December 31,
the MICEX index rose 14.4% quarter on quar -
ter , to 1,370.01 points and the RTS index gained
15.2% and stood at 1,444.61 points. The aver -
age MICEX and RTS indices in Q4 exceeded the
previous quarter’s levels by 22.9% and 32.0%
respectively.
As in the previous quarter , in Q4 the RTS in-
dex rose faster than the similar indices in most of
the emerging market countries. The stock mar -
ket indices of India, Brazil and China rose 2.0%,
11.5% and 17.9% respectively.
There was a slowing of growth in the prices
of corporate stocks in most sectors of the Russian
economy in Q4 and as a result, prices of tele -
communications, metallurgy and financial sector
stocks increased the most.
In January 2010, Russian stock prices dem -
onstrated different dynamics. By the end of that
month, the MICEX index gained 3.6% month on
month and reached 1,419.42 points and the RTS
index rose 2.0% to 1,473.81 points. Most of the
sectors saw prices of their corporate stocks in -
crease in January, except the manufacturing and
oil and gas sectors.
Monetary Conditions
2009 Q4 21
The OFZ yield curve retained it rising shape
while moving down. By the end of January 2010,
the slant of the government bond yield curve had
decreased slightly compared with what it was in
the last three months of the previous year.
Yields continued to fall on the ruble corpo-
rate and regional bonds market in the period of
from October 2009 through January 2010. In Q4,
average yield on corporate and regional bonds
stood at 11.2% and 10.6% p.a. respectively as
against 14.1% and 14.4% p.a. in Q3. In January
2010, average corporate and regional bond yield
fell by 0.7 percentage points and 0.9 percentage
points month on month, to 10.0% and 9.4% p.a.
respectively. Spreads between OFZ, corporate and
regional bond yields continued to narrow in the
October 2009-January 2010 period.
Monetary aggregates
Beginning from 2009 Q3, demand for the
national currency as a store of value began to
gradually rise amid growth in the ruble exchange
rate. At the same time, the recovery of the demand
for money was restrained by sluggish economic
activity and asset price dynamics, especially on
the real estate market.
The ruble supply expanded 16.3% in 2009.
The annual rates of growth in M2 monetary ag -
gregate started to accelerate in October , largely
owing to the so-called ‘base effect,’ the rapid fall
in the annualised rates of M2 growth in the sec -
Yields mostly fell on the OFZ market in 2009
Q4. By the end of that period, the effective OFZ
market portfolio indicator (MPI) declined by 2.1
percentage points quarter on quarter , to 8.6% p.a.
The average quarterly effective MPI dropped by
1.5 percentage points to 9.1% p.a. OFZ yields
kept falling until the last 10 days of January 2010
and subsequently changed within a narrow hori -
zontal range. By the end of January, the effective
MPI slipped by half a percentage point to 8.2%.
The average effective MPI decreased in January by
0.6 percentage points on the previous month and
stood at 8.2% p.a.
22 2009 Q4
The highest rates of growth in the M2 com -
ponents were demonstrated by the ruble house -
hold time deposits, which increased 27.6% in
2009.
The annual rates of growth in the most liq -
uid monetary aggregate, which comprises cash
and demand deposits, were negative during al -
most the entire year 2009, except December. As
a result of the significant acceleration of growth in
this monetary aggregate in December , its overall
increase in 2009 reached 8.9%.
The dynamics of cash in circulation in 2009
was affected in great measure by the changing
ond half of 2008. The analysis of the annualised
3- and 6-month rates of M2 growth, which de -
pend to a lesser extent on the previous year’s in -
dicators, shows the significant acceleration of M2
growth rates on 2009 Q2.
In the second half of 2009, seasonally-ad -
justed monthly rates of growth in M2 monetary
aggregate began to accelerate and in Q4 they
virtually reached the pre-crisis level. The principal
source of growth in the money supply in Q4, just
as in Q2 and Q3, was the increase in net claims on
government.
Monetary Conditions
2009 Q4 23
the highest level of 26.8%, registered as of Feb -
ruary 1, 2009, to 19.6% as of January 1, 2010.
Credit aggregates
The dynamics of credit aggregates in 2009
Q4 did not indicate any change in the negative
trends on the credit markets. Debt continued to
contract on all categories of credit in absolute
terms, except long-term loans to non-financial
organisations and short-term loans to house -
holds. Debt on loans to non-financial organisa -
tions increased by a lowly 0.3% in 2009 (a year
earlier , it grew 34.3%), whereas debt on loans to
households contracted 11.0% in absolute terms
public preferences in regard of foreign exchange.
The most significant absolute contraction of M0
monetary aggregate was registered in 2009 Q1.
It was characterised by the largest volumes of net
sales of foreign currency to households through
the exchange offices in recent years. Neverthe -
less, as the devaluation expectations subsided
and net foreign exchange sales declined, the
monthly rates of growth in cash accelerated and,
as a result, M0 monetary aggregate grew 6.4%
in 2009.
The M2X broad monetary base, which
comprises foreign currency deposits , ex -
panded 16.4% in 2009. Annual rates of growth
in broad monetary base began to accelerate
from Q4. The analysis of the annualised 3- and
6-month rates of growth in M2X monetary ag -
gregate indicates the acceleration of M2X growth
rates approximately from the middle of Q3.
Seasonally-adjusted monthly rates of M2X
growth began to accelerate in the second half of
2009, but they have not yet reached the pre-crisis
level.
Monthly rates of growth in foreign currency
deposits declined in 2009 despite their slight in -
crease in July and August. In 2009, foreign cur -
rency deposits grew 16.5% in ruble terms, the
biggest increase was in January. The level of dol -
larization of deposits 1 gradually contracted from
1 The level of dollarization in this case is the share of foreign
currency deposits (in ruble terms) in the broad monetary
base.
24 2009 Q4
terioration of the macroeconomic situation and
tougher borrowing conditions. At the same time,
now that economic growth has resumed, the low
level of lending activity may become a factor hin-
dering the recovery. Therefore, the recovery of the
credit markets in the next few quarters may be ex-
tremely important for the real sector.
Preconditions for this should be created by
a favourable liquidity situation on the interbank
money market and the expansion of credit insti -
tutions’ deposit base, which accelerated signifi -
cantly in the second half of 2009. As a result of
growth in ruble deposits, the gap that appeared
between deposits and loans by the beginning
of 2009 and became one of the reasons for the
credit crunch amid the decreased accessibility of
credit on foreign markets has narrowed signifi -
cantly. The improved bank balance sheet propor-
tions may become a factor of credit recovery.
At the same time, the dynamics of overdue
debt, which continued to increase in 2009 Q4,
remains a negative factor affecting the quality of
banks’ balance sheet indicators.
(in 2008, it increased 35.2%). Over the year ,
total debt on loans contracted 2.5% in absolute
terms.
Credit aggregate dynamics in 2009 was
determined to some extent by significantly de -
creased demand for credit as a result of the de -
2009 Q4 25
Statistical Addendum
Table 1
Consumer prices by group of goods and services
(month on month. %)
Monthly
inflation
Core
inflation
Food price
growth
Food price
growth 1
Vegetable
and fruit price
growth
Non-food
price growth
Growth in non-
food prices,
excluding petrol
prices 2
Service price
growth
January 1.7 0.6 0.9 0.6 4.1 0.4 0.4 4.7
February 1.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 3.6 0.3 0.4 2.6
March 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.5 3.2 0.4 0.4 0.6
April 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.5 3.1 0.4 0.4 0.5
May 0.6 0.3 1.0 0.1 7.8 0.4 0.3 0.5
June 1.0 0.4 1.7 0.4 12.2 0.3 0.3 0.6
July 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.9 0.4 0.4 0.6
August 0.1 1.1 -0.6 1.6 -16.1 0.6 0.5 0.5
September 0.8 1.6 1.0 2.2 -8.8 0.8 0.8 0.4
October 1.6 2.1 3.3 3.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.1
November 1.2 1.1 1.9 1.5 6.2 0.9 0.8 0.6
December 1.1 0.9 1.6 1.2 5.6 0.7 0.5 0.9
Full year (December on December) 11.9 11.0 15.6 14.9 22.2 6.5 6.4 13.3
January 2.3 1.1 1.9 1.2 8.3 0.6 0.6 5.4
February 1.2 1.0 1.7 1.3 5.1 0.6 0.6 1.4
March 1.2 1.1 2.0 1.5 5.9 0.7 0.7 0.6
April 1.4 1.3 2.2 1.8 5.5 0.9 0.7 1.0
May 1.4 1.1 2.1 1.5 6.4 0.8 0.6 1.0
June 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.7 0.5 1.1
July 0.5 0.8 0.1 1.0 -6.7 0.7 0.5 0.9
August 0.4 1.0 -0.2 1.2 -11.3 0.6 0.6 0.9
September 0.8 1.4 0.7 1.5 -6.4 0.7 0.8 1.0
October 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.8 -0.4 0.8 1.0 0.0
November 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.9 0.7
December 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.7 0.1 0.6 1.0
Full year (December on December) 13.3 13.6 16.5 17.5 7.7 8.0 8.4 13.3
January 2.4 1.3 1.4 1.1 4.7 0.7 1.0 6.3
February 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.5 4.9 1.6 1.8 1.4
March 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.4 4.5 1.4 1.6 0.6
April 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 -0.1 1.0 1.1 0.3
May 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.3 4.1 0.7 0.8 0.3
June 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.1 3.9 0.8 0.3 0.5
July 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.2 3.2 0.6 0.2 0.8
August 0.0 0.5 -0.9 0.4 -11.0 0.6 0.4 0.4
September 0.0 0.5 -0.8 0.4 -11.5 0.7 0.6 0.1
October 0.0 0.3 -0.5 0.0 -6.1 0.6 0.7 -0.1
November 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.1
December 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 3.0 0.2 0.3 0.5
Full year (December on December) 8.8 8.3 6.1 6.9 -1.7 9.7 9.8 11.6
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Bank of Russia estimate.
Note. T ables 1 to 7 are based on Rosstat data and Bank of Russia calculations.
26 2009 Q4
Table 2
Consumer prices by group of goods and services
(since start of year on accrual basis, %)
Inflation Core
inflation
Food price
growth
Food price
growth 1
Vegetable
and fruit price
growth
Non-food
price growth
Growth in non-
food prices,
excluding petrol
prices 2
Service price
growth
January 1.7 0.6 0.9 0.6 4.1 0.4 0.4 4.7
February 2.8 1.1 1.8 1.1 7.8 0.7 0.8 7.4
March 3.4 1.7 2.6 1.7 11.2 1.1 1.2 8.0
April 4.0 2.2 3.3 2.1 14.7 1.5 1.7 8.6
May 4.7 2.5 4.3 2.3 23.6 1.9 2.0 9.1
June 5.7 3.0 6.1 2.7 38.6 2.2 2.3 9.8
July 6.6 3.9 7.6 4.1 41.2 2.6 2.8 10.5
August 6.7 5.0 7.0 5.8 18.5 3.2 3.3 11.1
September 7.5 6.7 8.1 8.1 8.1 4.0 4.2 11.6
October 9.3 8.9 11.6 11.9 9.0 4.9 5.1 11.7
November 10.6 10.1 13.7 13.5 15.7 5.8 5.9 12.4
December 11.9 11.0 15.6 14.9 22.2 6.5 6.4 13.3
January 2.3 1.1 1.9 1.2 8.3 0.6 0.6 5.4
February 3.5 2.1 3.6 2.5 13.9 1.2 1.2 6.8
March 4.8 3.2 5.7 4.0 20.6 2.0 1.9 7.5
April 6.3 4.5 8.0 5.9 27.2 2.9 2.6 8.5
May 7.7 5.7 10.2 7.5 35.4 3.7 3.2 9.6
June 8.7 6.7 11.4 8.7 36.0 4.4 3.7 10.8
July 9.3 7.6 11.5 9.8 26.9 5.2 4.2 11.9
August 9.7 8.6 11.3 11.2 12.5 5.8 4.9 12.9
September 10.6 10.1 12.1 12.9 5.3 6.5 5.7 14.1
October 11.6 11.5 13.9 14.9 4.8 7.3 6.8 14.1
November 12.5 12.7 15.3 16.3 5.9 7.8 7.8 14.8
December 13.3 13.6 16.5 17.5 7.7 8.0 8.4 13.3
January 2.4 1.3 1.4 1.1 4.7 0.7 1.0 6.3
February 4.1 2.9 3.3 2.6 9.8 2.3 2.8 7.8
March 5.4 4.3 5.0 4.0 14.7 3.8 4.5 8.5
April 6.2 5.2 5.8 4.8 14.6 4.8 5.7 8.7
May 6.8 5.7 6.5 5.1 19.3 5.5 6.5 9.1
June 7.4 6.0 7.0 5.2 24.0 6.3 6.9 9.6
July 8.1 6.3 7.6 5.4 28.0 7.0 7.1 10.5
August 8.1 6.8 6.6 5.8 14.0 7.6 7.6 10.9
September 8.1 7.3 5.8 6.3 0.8 8.3 8.2 11.0
October 8.1 7.6 5.2 6.3 -5.4 9.0 9.0 10.9
November 8.4 8.0 5.5 6.5 -4.5 9.4 9.4 11.1
December 8.8 8.3 6.1 6.9 -1.7 9.7 9.8 11.6
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Bank of Russia estimate.
Statistical Addendum
2009 Q4 27
Table 3
Consumer prices by group of goods and services
(month on corresponding month of previous year, %)
Inflation Core
inflation 1
Food price
growth
Food price
growth 2
Vegetable
and fruit price
growth
Non-food
price growth
Growth in non-
food prices,
excluding petrol
prices 1
Service price
growth
January 8.2 7.7 7.6 8.0 3.1 6.0 5.7 12.3
February 7.6 6.9 5.3 6.6 -5.1 5.8 5.6 14.2
March 7.4 6.7 4.9 6.2 -5.2 5.8 5.6 14.0
April 7.6 6.8 5.4 6.3 -1.9 5.9 5.8 13.9
May 7.8 6.7 5.9 6.3 3.0 5.9 5.7 13.8
June 8.5 6.9 7.7 6.6 16.2 5.9 5.7 13.7
July 8.7 7.3 8.3 7.4 15.3 5.9 5.8 13.7
August 8.6 7.8 8.3 8.3 7.5 5.7 5.8 13.4
September 9.4 8.7 10.0 10.0 10.2 5.8 6.1 13.4
October 10.8 10.3 13.6 13.4 15.9 6.0 6.3 13.1
November 11.5 10.9 14.9 14.4 19.8 6.3 6.4 13.2
December 11.9 11.0 15.6 14.9 22.2 6.5 6.4 13.3
January 12.6 11.5 16.7 15.7 27.2 6.8 6.6 14.1
February 12.7 12.1 17.6 16.5 29.1 7.0 6.8 12.7
March 13.3 12.7 19.1 17.6 32.6 7.4 7.1 12.7
April 14.3 13.5 20.8 19.1 35.6 8.0 7.4 13.3
May 15.1 14.5 22.1 20.8 33.9 8.4 7.7 13.9
June 15.1 15.1 21.3 21.7 19.9 8.9 7.9 14.4
July 14.7 15.0 19.8 21.2 9.8 9.2 8.0 14.7
August 15.0 14.8 20.2 20.8 16.1 9.2 8.1 15.2
September 15.0 14.5 19.9 20.0 19.0 9.1 8.1 15.9
October 14.2 13.7 17.9 18.0 17.5 9.1 8.2 15.7
November 13.8 13.7 17.2 17.7 11.9 8.6 8.4 15.8
December 13.3 13.6 16.5 17.5 7.7 8.0 8.4 13.3
January 13.4 13.9 15.9 17.3 4.1 8.1 8.9 16.9
February 13.9 14.6 16.1 17.6 3.8 9.2 10.2 17.0
March 14.0 14.9 15.8 17.4 2.5 9.9 11.2 17.0
April 13.2 14.4 14.1 16.3 -3.0 10.0 11.7 16.2
May 12.3 13.6 12.5 14.9 -5.1 9.9 11.9 15.4
June 11.9 12.9 11.9 13.7 -1.8 9.9 11.7 14.6
July 12.0 12.3 12.4 12.7 8.7 9.8 11.4 14.5
August 11.6 11.7 11.6 11.8 9.1 9.9 11.2 13.9
September 10.7 10.8 9.9 10.6 3.2 9.9 11.0 12.8
October 9.7 9.6 7.6 8.7 -2.8 9.6 10.6 12.7
November 9.1 8.8 6.6 7.6 -2.9 9.6 10.0 12.1
December 8.8 8.3 6.1 6.9 -1.7 9.7 9.8 11.6
1 Bank of Russia estimate.
2 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
28 2009 Q4
Table 4
Inflation growth over period since start of year due to price changes
by group of goods and services (percentage points)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food
products
Paid
services
Vegetables and
fruit
Inflation over
period, %
Core
inflation
Non-core
inflation 2
January 0.2 0.1 1.2 0.2 1.7 0.5 1.2
February 0.4 0.3 1.8 0.3 2.8 0.9 1.9
March 0.6 0.4 2.0 0.4 3.4 1.3 2.1
April 0.8 0.5 2.1 0.6 4.0 1.7 2.3
May 0.8 0.7 2.3 0.9 4.7 1.9 2.7
June 1.0 0.8 2.4 1.5 5.7 2.3 3.4
July 1.5 0.9 2.6 1.6 6.6 3.0 3.6
August 2.1 1.1 2.7 0.7 6.7 3.9 2.8
September 3.0 1.4 2.9 0.3 7.5 5.3 2.3
October 4.3 1.7 2.9 0.3 9.3 7.0 2.3
November 4.9 2.0 3.1 0.6 10.6 7.9 2.7
December 5.4 2.3 3.3 0.9 11.9 8.7 3.2
January 0.4 0.2 1.3 0.3 2.3 0.8 1.5
February 0.9 0.4 1.7 0.5 3.5 1.6 1.9
March 1.4 0.7 1.9 0.8 4.8 2.5 2.3
April 2.1 1.0 2.1 1.0 6.3 3.6 2.7
May 2.6 1.3 2.4 1.4 7.7 4.5 3.2
June 3.1 1.6 2.7 1.4 8.7 5.3 3.5
July 3.5 1.9 3.0 1.0 9.3 6.0 3.3
August 3.9 2.1 3.2 0.5 9.7 6.8 2.9
September 4.5 2.3 3.5 0.2 10.6 8.0 2.6
October 5.2 2.6 3.5 0.2 11.6 9.2 2.4
November 5.8 2.8 3.7 0.2 12.5 10.1 2.4
December 6.2 2.9 4.0 0.3 13.3 10.8 2.5
January 0.4 0.3 1.6 0.2 2.4 1.0 1.4
February 0.9 0.9 2.0 0.4 4.1 2.4 1.7
March 1.4 1.4 2.1 0.5 5.4 3.5 2.0
April 1.6 1.8 2.2 0.5 6.2 4.2 2.0
May 1.8 2.1 2.3 0.7 6.8 4.6 2.2
June 1.8 2.4 2.4 0.9 7.4 4.8 2.6
July 1.9 2.6 2.6 1.0 8.1 5.1 3.0
August 2.0 2.9 2.7 0.5 8.1 5.5 2.6
September 2.1 3.1 2.8 0.0 8.1 5.9 2.1
October 2.1 3.4 2.7 -0.2 8.1 6.1 1.9
November 2.2 3.5 2.8 -0.2 8.4 6.4 1.9
December 2.4 3.6 2.9 -0.1 8.8 6.7 2.1
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
Statistical Addendum
2009 Q4 29
Table 5
Monthly inflation growth due to price changes
by group of goods and services (percentage points)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food
products
Paid
services
Vegetables
and fruit
Inflation over
period, %
Core
inflation
Non-core
inflation 2
January 0.2 0.1 1.2 0.2 1.7 0.5 1.2
February 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.1 1.1 0.4 0.7
March 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.2
April 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.2
May 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.4
June 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.6
July 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.2
August 0.6 0.2 0.1 -0.8 0.1 0.8 -0.7
September 0.8 0.3 0.1 -0.4 0.8 1.3 -0.5
October 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.6 1.6 0.0
November 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 1.2 0.8 0.4
December 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.1 0.7 0.5
January 0.4 0.2 1.3 0.3 2.3 0.8 1.5
February 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 1.2 0.8 0.4
March 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 1.2 0.8 0.3
April 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 1.4 1.0 0.4
May 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.4 0.9 0.5
June 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.0 0.7 0.2
July 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.3 0.5 0.7 -0.1
August 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.5 0.4 0.8 -0.4
September 0.5 0.2 0.3 -0.3 0.8 1.1 -0.3
October 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.9 1.1 -0.2
November 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.0
December 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1
January 0.4 0.3 1.6 0.2 2.4 1.0 1.4
February 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.7 1.3 0.3
March 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 1.3 1.1 0.2
April 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.0
May 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2
June 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.4
July 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.4
August 3 0.0
September 3 0.0
October 0.0
November 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0
December 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
3 Owing to zero inflation in August and September 2009, estimates may vary.
30 2009 Q4
Table 6
Contribution to inflation growth over period since start of year
by group of goods and services (%)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food products Paid services Vegetables and fruit Core inflation Non-core inflation 2
January 13.4 8.3 69.0 9.3 29.5 70.5
February 14.9 9.2 65.3 10.6 31.3 68.7
March 17.8 11.6 58.1 12.5 38.3 61.7
April 19.6 13.5 52.9 14.1 42.8 57.2
May 18.0 14.3 48.3 19.4 41.6 58.4
June 17.6 13.7 42.7 26.0 40.4 59.6
July 22.9 13.9 39.2 23.9 45.8 54.2
August 31.7 16.9 40.8 10.6 58.5 41.5
September 39.3 18.7 37.9 4.1 69.9 30.1
October 46.6 18.6 31.1 3.7 75.4 24.6
November 46.3 19.2 28.8 5.7 74.5 25.5
December 45.7 19.4 27.8 7.2 72.8 27.2
January 18.9 9.3 58.1 13.7 36.2 63.8
February 25.1 12.1 47.9 14.9 46.1 53.9
March 29.7 14.7 39.0 16.6 52.7 47.3
April 33.0 16.5 33.9 16.6 57.0 43.0
May 34.2 17.1 31.1 17.6 58.5 41.5
June 35.2 18.2 30.8 15.7 60.5 39.5
July 37.3 19.9 31.7 11.1 64.4 35.6
August 40.6 21.4 33.0 5.0 70.5 29.5
September 43.0 22.0 33.1 1.9 75.7 24.3
October 45.3 22.9 30.2 1.6 79.2 20.8
November 46.0 22.6 29.6 1.8 80.8 19.2
December 46.4 21.6 29.8 2.2 81.5 18.5
January 15.6 11.3 66.2 7.0 42.3 57.7
February 22.1 21.5 47.9 8.6 57.7 42.3
March 25.3 26.1 38.9 9.7 64.0 36.0
April 26.7 29.3 35.5 8.5 67.9 32.1
May 25.9 30.5 33.4 10.2 67.5 32.5
June 24.1 31.9 32.4 11.6 65.0 35.0
July 23.0 32.3 32.3 12.4 62.6 37.4
August 24.7 35.3 33.8 6.2 67.6 32.4
September 26.7 38.7 34.2 0.4 73.3 26.7
October 26.6 41.9 33.8 -2.4 76.3 23.7
November 26.7 42.2 33.0 -1.9 76.7 23.3
December 26.7 41.0 33.0 -0.7 76.4 23.6
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
Statistical Addendum
2009 Q4 31
Table 7
Contribution to monthly inflation growth
by group of goods and services (%)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food products Paid services Vegetables and fruit Core inflation Non-core inflation 2
January 13.4 8.3 69.0 9.3 29.5 70.5
February 17.1 10.6 59.7 12.6 34.2 65.8
March 31.4 22.7 24.5 21.4 70.7 29.3
April 30.0 24.6 22.3 23.1 69.6 30.4
May 8.4 19.5 20.6 51.6 34.4 65.6
June 15.8 10.7 17.0 56.5 35.1 64.9
July 55.9 15.7 17.4 10.9 79.2 20.8
August 724.2 250.9 165.2 -1,040.4 1,016.5 -916.5
September 99.9 33.4 14.7 -48.0 160.7 -60.7
October 78.5 18.2 1.2 2.1 99.3 0.7
November 43.6 23.6 13.3 19.5 67.8 32.2
December 39.2 21.6 19.2 20.0 56.7 43.3
January 18.9 9.3 58.1 13.7 36.2 63.8
February 36.8 17.4 28.5 17.3 64.9 35.1
March 43.2 22.6 12.8 21.4 72.2 27.8
April 43.5 22.0 17.6 16.9 70.3 29.7
May 39.1 20.1 18.9 21.9 65.2 34.8
June 42.7 26.5 28.7 2.2 74.5 25.5
July 69.6 47.5 45.8 -62.9 125.6 -25.6
August 122.9 59.3 67.5 -149.7 225.0 -125.0
September 69.7 29.4 34.5 -33.6 136.6 -36.6
October 69.5 32.2 -0.1 -1.7 116.9 -16.9
November 54.4 19.8 21.2 4.7 100.5 -0.5
December 50.8 5.9 34.3 8.9 91.7 8.3
January 15.6 11.3 66.2 7.0 42.3 57.7
February 31.2 35.9 22.0 10.9 79.5 20.5
March 35.2 40.0 11.7 13.1 83.0 17.0
April 37.5 53.9 9.3 -0.7 97.1 2.9
May 17.1 42.5 13.3 27.1 62.6 37.4
June 5.7 46.9 20.7 26.8 38.4 61.6
July 10.8 35.8 31.6 21.8 35.3 64.7
August 3
September 3
October
November 28.1 49.3 12.4 10.2 87.7 12.3
December 27.2 18.3 31.2 23.4 70.2 29.8
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
3 Owing to zero inflation in August and September 2009, estimates may vary.
32 2009 Q4
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Macroeconomic indicators
GDP
over period since start of year, billion rubles
2007 1 6,750 14,515 23,419 33,103
2008 1 8,891 19,084 30,724 41,256
2009 1 8,483 17,809 28,299 39,016
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2007 1 107.5 107.8 107.8 108.1
2008 1 108.7 108.0 107.3 105.6
2009 1 90.2 89.6 90.1 92.1
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2007 1 107.5 108.0 107.7 109.0
2008 1 108.7 107.5 106.0 101.2
2009 1 90.2 89.1 91.1
Industrial output indices
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2007 107.2 107.1 105.5 105.7
2008 106.2 105.5 104.7 93.9
2009 85.7 84.6 89.0 97.4
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2007 107.2 107.1 106.6 106.3
2008 106.2 105.8 105.4 102.1
2009 85.7 85.2 86.5 89.2
Agricultural output
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2007 103.4 104.3 103.0 103.1
2008 105.5 106.9 113.0 115.6
2009 102.3 100.8 99.0 106.4
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2007 103.4 104.1 103.5 103.3
2008 105.5 106.4 109.6 110.8
2009 102.3 101.4 100.1 101.2
Fixed capital investment
over period since start of year, billion rubles
2007 924.0 2,387.0 4,174.1 6,716.2
2008 1,355.4 3,411.7 5,826.7 8,764.9
2009 1,285.1 3,014.9 5,000.9 7,539.9
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2007 123.8 125.4 119.8 122.8
2008 123.6 117.4 111.7 97.7
2009 84.4 79.0 81.0 86.9
Retail trade turnover
over period since start of year, billion rubles
2007 2,257.8 4,800.4 7,599.6 10,869.0
2008 2,952.5 6,278.4 9,936.1 13,919.6
2009 3,307.6 6,801.8 10,470.2 14,516.9
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2007 114.8 115.8 116.8 116.8
2008 117.2 114.9 115.0 108.7
2009 99.9 94.4 90.8 93.9
Federal budget on accrual
basis, as of end of period
revenue
billion rubles
2007 1,421.9 3,245.7 5,087.6 7,781.1
2008 1,932.7 4,370.7 7,155.7 9,275.9
2009 1,732.7 3,172.2 5,114.4 7,336.8 2
as % of GDP
2007 21.1 22.4 21.8 23.5
2008 21.7 22.9 23.3 22.5
2009 20.4 17.8 18.1 18.8 2
expenditure
billion rubles
2007 945.6 2,169.7 3,464.3 5,986.6
2008 1,332.7 2,995.6 4,594.2 7,570.9
2009 1,762.4 3,893.8 6,441.7 9,636.8 2
as % of GDP
2007 14.0 15.0 14.9 18.1
2008 15.0 15.7 15.0 18.4
2009 20.8 21.9 22.8 24.7 2
Federal budget surplus (+)/deficit (-) on accrual
basis, as of end of period
billion rubles
2007 476.3 1,076.1 1,623.2 1,794.6
2008 600.0 1,375.1 2,561.5 1,705.1
2009 -29.7 -721.7 -1,327.2 -2,300.1 2
as % of GDP
2007 7.1 7.4 6.9 5.4
2008 6.7 7.2 8.3 4.1
2009 -0.4 -4.1 -4.7 -5.9 2
Table 8
Russia’s key macroeconomic and financial indicators
Note: T able 8 is based on data compiled by the Bank of Russia, the Federal State Statistics Service, the Ministry of Finance of the
Russian Federation and the Federal T reasury.
Statistical Addendum
2009 Q4 33
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Socio-economic indicators
Nominal imputed average
monthly per employee wage
rubles
2007 11,876 12,993 13,494 15,742
2008 15,424 16,962 17,556 18,966
2009 17,441 18,419 18,673 20,626
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2007 127.3 125.9 124.0 129.3
2008 128.0 129.2 129.0 119.5
2009 112.8 108.0 105.7 108.1
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2007 127.3 126.6 125.7 127.8
2008 128.0 128.6 128.7 127.2
2009 112.8 110.3 108.6 108.5
Real imputed average monthly per employee wage, as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2007 118.2 116.6 113.9 116.1
2008 113.4 112.5 112.2 105.0
2009 99.2 96.1 94.8 99.0
Household money income (per capita monthly average), rubles
2007 9,976.9 11,987.8 12,725.8 15,677.9
2008 12,290.1 14,840.0 15,665.6 16,932.7
2009 13,976.4 16,933.2 16,796.9 19,566.1
Household real disposable
money income
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2007 111.9 110.0 112.4 113.0
2008 107.5 105.7 104.5 93.1
2009 100.4 103.1 96.8 108.6
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2007 111.9 … … 112.1
2008 107.5 106.6 105.8 101.9
2009 100.4 101.8 100.0 102.3
Household spending, as % of
income
purchase of goods and services
2007 73.6 69.3 71.2 66.0
2008 77.1 71.8 74.4 73.6
2009 76.3 66.6 70.2 65.3
compulsory payments and contributions
2007 12.0 11.9 11.6 11.6
2008 12.1 12.3 12.6 12.0
2009 11.3 10.4 11.4 10.6
growth in savings
2007 10.2 9.0 8.1 11.0
2008 8.3 7.2 4.6 2.2
2009 8.7 17.1 12.9 16.8
foreign exchange purchase
2007 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1
2008 6.9 4.7 5.7 13.7
2009 10.3 3.5 6.0 3.5
cash on hand
2007 -1.0 4.6 3.9 6.3
2008 -4.4 4.0 2.7 -1.5
2009 -6.6 2.4 -0.5 3.8
Average imputed pension, total, rubles
2007 2,846 3,091 3,108 3,418
2008 3,823 4,044 4,383 4,545
2009 4,614 5,151 5,330 5,669
Real imputed pension
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2007 104.1 104.9 102.0 108.1
2008 119.0 113.9 122.7 116.9
2009 106.1 113.3 109.1 114.2
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2007 104.1 104.5 103.6 104.8
2008 119.0 116.4 118.6 118.1
2009 106.1 109.8 109.5 110.7
Total number of unemployed
(calculated using ILO
methodology)
million
2007 5.2 4.5 4.3 4.4
2008 5.1 4.3 4.5 5.4
2009 6.8 6.5 6.0 6.1
as % of economically active population
2007 7.0 6.0 5.7 5.8
2008 6.7 5.6 5.9 7.1
2009 9.1 8.6 7.8 8.0
Table 8 (continued)
34 2009 Q4
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Foreign economic activities
Price of Urals crude
over period since start of year, $/barrel
2007 54.0 59.7 64.0 69.5
2008 93.7 105.3 107.6 93.9
2009 43.2 50.5 56.3 60.7
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2007 93.5 97.7 102.4 114.1
2008 173.7 176.3 168.2 135.1
2009 46.1 48.0 52.3 64.6
Exports of goods
over period since start of year, $ billion
2007 71.7 155.4 244.9 354.4
2008 110.1 236.8 373.6 471.6
2009 57.4 125.7 208.2 303.3 3
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2007 106.5 108.0 109.5 116.8
2008 153.6 152.4 152.5 133.1
2009 52.1 53.1 55.7 64.3 3
Imports of goods
over period since start of year, $ billion
2007 42.8 95.5 153.9 223.5
2008 60.2 135.7 218.6 291.9
2009 38.4 82.3 131.6 192.7 3
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2007 138.6 137.1 137.0 136.0
2008 140.8 142.0 142.0 130.6
2009 63.7 60.6 60.2 66.0 3
Current account (over period since start of year), $ billion
2007 22.6 37.1 52.8 77.0
2008 38.0 64.3 93.9 102.4
2009 9.3 16.9 31.9 47.5 3
Private sector net capital outflow (inflow) (over period since start of year), $ billion
2007 13.8 68.1 60.9 82.4
2008 -23.7 17.0 -2.3 -132.8
2009 -35.1 -30.6 -64.0 -52.4 3
Foreign investment in Russia’s non-financial sector
(Rosstat data)
over period since start of year, $ billion
2007 24.6 60.3 87.9 120.9
2008 17.3 46.5 75.8 103.8
2009 12.0 32.2 54.7 81.9
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2007 2.8 times 2.6 times 2.5 times 2.2 times
2008 70.1 77.1 86.2 85.8
2009 69.7 69.1 72.2 79.0
of which:
direct
over period since start of year, $ billion
2007 9.8 15.8 19.6 27.8
2008 5.6 11.1 19.2 27.0
2009 3.2 6.1 10.0 15.9
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2007 2.5 times 2.5 times 191.3 2.0 times
2008 57.2 70.0 97.7 97.2
2009 57.0 55.0 51.9 58.9
portfolio
over period since start of year, $ billion
2007 0.2 1.1 1.5 4.2
2008 0.1 1.2 1.3 1.4
2009 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.9
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2007 85.8 2.2 times 2.3 times 131.8
2008 62.5 104.4 83.7 33.7
2009 93.5 74.9 78.6 62.3
other
over period since start of year, $ billion
2007 14.7 43.4 66.7 89.0
2008 11.5 34.3 55.3 75.3
2009 8.7 25.2 43.7 65.1
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2007 3.1 times 2.6 times 2.7 times 2.3 times
2008 78.7 79.0 82.8 84.7
2009 75.6 73.5 79.1 86.5
Russia’s international reserves (as of end of period), $ billion
2007 338.8 405.8 425.4 478.8
2008 512.6 569.0 556.8 427.1
2009 383.9 412.6 413.4 439.0
Real ruble exchange rate indices, last month of
quarter (growth as % of December of previous
year) 4
ruble vs. US dollar
2007 2.3 3.8 8.1 15.0
2008 6.5 8.5 3.2 -1.1
2009 -15.4 -5.0 -3.9 -0.4
ruble vs. euro
2007 3.1 4.1 4.5 5.8
2008 0.6 3.4 6.2 5.0
2009 -12.0 -7.0 -9.0 -6.5
effective rate
2007 2.7 3.3 3.8 5.1
2008 1.5 3.3 3.0 4.3
2009 -10.0 -4.2 -5.6 -3.9
Table 8 (continued)
Statistical Addendum
2009 Q4 35
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Financial market indicators (including Sberbank rates)
Average for period
Overnight interbank credit
rate, % p.a.
in rubles
2007 3,9 3,4 4,9 5,4
2008 3,9 4,1 6,0 8,6
2009 11,6 7,7 7,1 5,5
in US dollars
2007 5,2 5,2 5,1 4,5
2008 3,2 2,2 2,2 0,7
2009 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,2
OFZ yields 5, % p.a.
2007 6,6 6,6 6,6 6,6
2008 6,7 6,9 7,5 8,7
2009 10,5 10,3 10,6 9,1
Interest rate on household
time deposits, % p.a.
up to 1 year in rubles
2007 7,4 7,3 7,0 7,2
2008 7,0 7,1 7,5 9,0
2009 10,0 10,8 10,7 10,2
over 1 year in rubles
2007 7,9 7,5 7,1 6,8
2008 7,4 8,0 8,5 9,1
2009 10,0 10,3 9,3 9,2
up to 1 year in US dollars
2007 5,4 5,3 5,2 5,2
2008 5,1 5,8 5,3 6,5
2009 6,0 5,3 5,5 5,2
over 1 year in US dollars
2007 6,8 6,6 6,4 7,0
2008 6,9 7,0 7,1 7,8
2009 6,5 6,1 5,7 5,5
Interest rate on credit to non-
financial organisations, % p.a.
up to 1 year in rubles
2007 9,9 9,6 9,8 10,7
2008 10,9 11,2 12,0 14,9
2009 16,6 15,8 14,9 13,9
over 1 year in rubles
2007 12,1 11,5 11,0 11,4
2008 12,3 12,8 13,6 13,8
2009 15,1 16,2 15,8 14,7
up to 1 year in US dollars
2007 8,7 8,8 8,4 9,1
2008 8,1 8,0 8,9 10,9
2009 10,7 10,1 10,0 9,3
over 1 year in US dollars
2007 10,3 10,1 9,3 9,8
2008 9,3 9,9 9,4 11,3
2009 12,7 11,6 10,7 9,0
Interest rate on ruble-denominated promissory notes discounted by banks, % p.a.
2007 9,5 8,9 10,8 10,8
2008 10,7 11,0 12,1 14,1
2009 15,7 14,3 14,0 11,8
MICEX rate in ‘tomorrow’ trades, ruble/$
2007 26.3056 25.8599 25.5043 24.6525
2008 24.2286 23.6190 24.2718 27.2941
2009 34.4761 32.2032 31.3160 29.4737
As of end of quarter
RTS index, points
2007 1,935.72 1,897.70 2,071.80 2,290.51
2008 2,053.93 2,303.34 1,211.84 631.89
2009 689.63 987.02 1,254.52 1,444.61
Refinance rate, % p.a.
2007 10.5 10.0 10.0 10.0
2008 10.25 10.75 11.0 13.0
2009 13.0 11.5 10.0 8.75
Table 8 (continued)
36 2009 Q4
Table 8 (end)
Year 1.01 1.04 1.07 1.10
Monetary indicators
M0, billion rubles
2008 3,702.2 3,475.5 3,724.9 3,904.2
2009 3,794.8 3,278.3 3,522.5 3,485.6
2010 4,038.1
M2, billion rubles
2008 13,272.1 13,382.9 14,244.7 14,374.6
2009 13,493.2 12,111.7 13,161.0 13,649.5
2010 15,697.7
Obligations included in broad money, billion rubles
2008 14,636.7 14,918.3 15,926.6 16,067.8
2009 16,774.7 16,308.4 17,055.4 17,523.4
2010 19,520.1 2
Net foreign assets, billion rubles
2008 9,914.3 10,535.2 11,274.3 12,284.4
2009 12,214.9 12,883.8 13,046.0 13,234.9
2010 13,916.1 2
Domestic claims, billion rubles
2008 8,325.9 8,437.2 8,760.6 8,614.9
2009 10,645.1 10,307.4 11,076.4 11,716.8
2010 13,345.7 2
Broad monetary base, billion rubles
2008 5,513.3 4,871.4 5,422.9 5,317.8
2009 5,578.7 4,298.8 4,967.6 4,803.7
2010 6,467.3
Balances of correspondent accounts, billion rubles
2008 802.2 596.3 592.4 702.9
2009 1,027.6 431.7 471.4 545.4
2010 900.3
M2 velocity
annual average
2008 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0
2009 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
2010 3.0 2
change since start of year, %
2008 -18.6 6 -2.8 -3.5 -2.9
2009 -3.0 6 0.5 -0.5 -2.1
2010 -2.4 6
Monetisation of the economy (by M2 aggregate), %
2008 32.1 33.0 33.2 33.0
2009 33.1 32.9 33.2 33.8
2010 33.9 2
Money multiplier
by broad monetary base
2008 2.41 2.75 2.63 2.70
2009 2.42 2.82 2.65 2.84
2010 2.42
change since start of year, %
2008 10.3 6 14.1 9.1 12.3
2009 0.5 6 16.5 9.5 17.5
2010 -0.1 6
Foreign exchange rates
rubles per US dollar
2008 24.55 23.50 23.41 25.37
2009 29.39 33.90 31.04 30.01
2010 30.19
rubles per euro
2008 35.93 37.09 36.97 36.50
2009 41.43 44.89 43.85 43.89
2010 43.46
1 Quarterly data in the context of full-year results will be published later.
2 Preliminary data.
3 Estimate.
4 (+) signifies appreciation of the ruble, (-) signifies depreciation of the ruble.
5 OFZ effective market portfolio indicator.
6 Relative to beginning of previous year.
Statistical Addendum
2009 Q4 37
Table 9
Bank of Russia interest rates in 2009 (% p.a.)
Instrument Liquidity provision/
absorption period
From 1.01.09 to 1.02.09
From 2.02.09 to 9.02.09
From 10.02.09 to 23.04.09
From 24.04.09 to 13.05.09
From 14.05.09 to 4.06.09
From 5.06.09 to 12.07.09
From 13.07.09 to 7.08.09
From 10.08.09 to 14.09.09
From 15.09.09 to 29.09.09
From 30.09.09 to 29.10.09
From 30.10.09 to 24.11.09
From 25.11.09 to 27.12.09
From 28.12.09
Providing liquidity at offered bids (including by auction)
Repo operations 1
1 day 9.00 9.00 10.00 9.50 9.00 8.50 8.00 7.75 7.50 7.25 6.75 6.25 6.00
1 week 9.50 9.50 10.50 10.00 9.50 9.00 8.50 8.25 8.00 7.25 6.75 6.25 6.00
3 months 10.50 10.50 11.50 11.00 10.75 10.25 9.75 9.50 9.25 8.75 8.25 7.75 7.50
6 months 11.25 11.25 12.25 11.75 11.25 10.75 10.25 10.00 9.75 9.25 8.75 8.25 8.00
12 months 11.75 11.75 12.75 12.25 11.75 11.25 10.75 10.50 10.25 9.75 9.25 8.75 8.50
Currency swap operations 2 1 day 13.00 13.00 13.00 12.50 12.00 11.50 11.00 10.75 10.50 10.00 9.50 9.00 8.75
Unsecured loans up to 12 months Minimum rate is set when auction is announced
Lombard loans 1, 3
2 weeks 9.50 9.50 10.50 10.00 9.50 9.00 8.50 8.25 8.00 7.25 6.75 6.25 6.00
3 months 10.50 10.50 11.50 11.00 10.75 10.25 9.75 9.50 9.25 8.75 8.25 7.75 7.50
6 months 11.25 11.25 12.25 11.75 11.25 10.75 10.25 10.00 9.75 9.25 8.75 8.25 8.00
12 months 11.75 11.75 12.75 12.25 11.75 11.25 10.75 10.50 10.25 9.75 9.25 8.75 8.50
Providing liquidity at fixed rates
Overnight loans 3, 4 1 day 13.00 13.00 13.00 12.50 12.00 11.50 11.00 10.75 10.50 10.00 9.50 9.00 8.75
Lombard loans 3
1 day 10.00 11.00 12.00 11.50 11.00 10.50 10.00 9.75 9.50 9.00 8.50 8.00 7.75
7 days 10.00 11.00 12.00 11.50 11.00 10.50 10.00 9.75 9.50 9.00 8.50 8.00 7.75
30 days 10.25 11.00 12.00 11.50 11.00 10.50 10.00 9.75 9.50 9.00 8.50 8.00 7.75
Repo operations
1 day 10.00 11.00 12.00 11.50 11.00 10.50 10.00 9.75 9.50 9.00 8.50 8.00 7.75
7 days 10.00 11.00 12.00 11.50 11.00 10.50 10.00 9.75 9.50 9.00 8.50 8.00 7.75
1 year – – – – – 11.25 10.75 10.50 10.25 9.75 9.25 8.75 8.50
Loans secured by “non-market” assets
or guarantees 4
up to 90 days 11.00 11.25 12.00 11.50 11.00 10.50 10.00 9.75 9.50 9.00 8.50 8.00 7.75
91 to 180 days 12.00 12.00 12.50 12.00 11.50 11.00 10.50 10.25 10.00 9.50 9.00 8.50 8.25
181 to 365 days 13.00 13.00 13.00 12.50 12.00 11.50 11.00 10.75 10.50 10.00 9.50 9.00 8.75
Absorbing liquidity at fixed rates
Deposit operations
Tom-next, spot-next
and demand 6.75 6.75 7.75 7.25 6.75 6.25 5.75 5.50 5.25 4.75 4.25 3.75 3.50
1 week, spot-week 7.25 7.25 8.25 7.75 7.25 6.75 6.25 6.00 5.75 5.25 4.75 4.25 4.00
1 Minimum interest rate set by Bank of Russia Board of Directors.
2 Interest rate set on the ruble part when determining the minimum offered swap difference.
3 Pursuant to Bank of Russia Regulation No. 236-P of August 4, 2003.
4 Pursuant to Bank of Russia Regulation No. 312-P of November 12, 2007.
38 2009 Q4
Table 10
Credit institutions’ required reserve ratios
(from July 1, 2007 to October 31, 2009, %)
Required reserve ratio for bank obligations
to non-resident banks in Russian and
foreign currency
Required reserve ratio for obligations to
individuals in Russian currency
Required reserve ratio for other bank
obligations in Russian and foreign currency
July 1, 2007—October 10, 2007 4.5 4.0 4.5
October 11, 2007—January 14, 2008 3.5 3.0 3.5
January 15, 2008—February 29, 2008 4.5 4.0 4.5
March 1, 2008—June 30, 2008 5.5 4.5 5.0
July 1, 2008—August 31, 2008 7.0 5.0 5.5
September 1, 2008—September 17, 2008 8.5 5.5 6.0
September 18, 2008—October 14, 2008 4.5 1.5 2.0
October 15, 2008—April 30, 2009 0.5 0.5 0.5
May 1, 2009—May 31, 2009 1.0 1.0 1.0
June 1, 2009—June 30, 2009 1.5 1.5 1.5
July 1, 2009—July 31, 2009 2.0 2.0 2.0
August 1, 2009—October 31, 2009 2.5 2.5 2.5
Table 11
Credit institutions’ required reserve ratios
(from November 1, 2009 up to present, %)
Required reserve ratio for
obligations to non-resident
corporates in Russian
currency
Required reserve ratio for
obligations to non-resident
individuals in Russian
currency
Required reserve ratio for
obligations to individuals in
Russian currency
Required reserve ratio for
obligations to individuals in
foreign currency
Required reserve ratio for
other bank obligations in
Russian currency
Required reserve ratio for
other bank obligations in
foreign currency
November 1, 2009 – 2.5
© The Central Bank of the Russian Federation, 2010
Research and Information Department