NBP MPC Press Release - 2019-03-06
Central bank: nbp | Type: decision | Date: 2019-03-06

1/2 
Warsaw, 6 March 2019 
Information from the meeting of the Monetary Policy 
Council held on 5-6 March 2019 
The Council decided to keep the NBP interest rates: 
▪ reference rate at 1.50%; 
▪ lombard rate at 2.50%; 
▪ deposit rate at 0.50%; 
▪ rediscount rate at 1.75%. 
 
Incoming data suggest a weakening in some of the largest economies, amid 
heightened uncertainty about the outlook for global economic activity in the coming 
quarters. In the euro area, GDP growth in 2018 Q4 was lower than in the first half of 
2018, while available forecasts suggest a further weakening in 2019. In the United States, 
economic conditions remain good, although a slight slowdown in GDP growth is 
expected there. In China activity growth continues to gradually decline. 
Despite an increase in global oil prices at the beginning of 2019, their level is still 
lower than in 2018 Q3. This is leading to a decline in inflation in many countries. 
Alongside that, core inflation in the environment of the Polish economy, including the 
euro area, remains low. 
The European Central Bank keeps interest rates close to zero, including the deposit 
rate below zero. At the same time, the ECB continues to reinvest the funds from the 
maturing securities. The US Federal Reserve is keeping interest rates unchanged. 
In Poland, GDP growth in 2018 Q4 remained relatively high . GDP growth is driven 
by rising consumption – albeit at a slightly lower rate than in previous quarters – that is 
fuelled by increasing employment and wages as well as very high consumer sentiment. 
This was accompanied by a rise in investment. 
Notwithstanding relatively high economic growth and wages rising faster than in the 
previous years, annual consumer price growth has declined in recent months and is 
running at a low level. Inflation net of food and ener gy prices continues to be low, 
despite possible increase in January. 
The Council became acquainted with the results of the March projection of inflation 
and GDP, prepared under the assumption of unchanged NBP interest rates. The March 
projection takes int o account data and information published up to 15 February 2019 – 
including information on statutory freeze on electricity prices – as well as preliminary 
information on changes in fiscal policy announced on 23 February 2019. In line with the 
March projection based on the NECMOD model , there is a 50 -percent probability that 
the annual price growth will be in the range of 1.2 -2.2% in 2019 (against 2.6 -3.9% in the 
November 2018 projection), 1.7 -3.6% in 2020 (compared to 1.9 -3.9%) and 1.3 -3.5% in 
2021. At the same time, the annual GDP growth – according to this projection – will be 
 
 
2/2 
with a 50 -percent probability in the range of 3.3 -4.7% in 2019 (against 2.7 -4.4% in the 
November 2018 projection), 2.7 -4.6% in 2020 (compared to 2.3 -4.2%) and 2.4 -4.3% in 
2021. 
In the Council's assessment, the outlook for economic conditions in Poland remains 
favourable. However, in the quarters to come, there will probably be a gradual 
slowdown in GDP growth. At the same time, inflation will remain at a moderate level 
and, in the mon etary policy transmission horizon , will stay close to the target. Such an 
assessment is supported by the results of the March projection of inflation and GDP. 
The Council judges that the current level of interest rates is conducive to keeping the 
Polish economy on a sustainable growth path and maintaining macroeconomic stability. 
The Council adopted the Inflation Report – March 2019.