NBP MPC Press Release - 2012-02-08
Central bank: nbp | Type: decision | Date: 2012-02-08

National Bank of Poland 
Monetary Policy Council 
 
 
00-919 Warszawa, ul. Świ ętokrzyska 11/21, phone 22 653 28 88, fax 22 653 13 28 
 
 
 
Warsaw, 8 February 2012 
 
INFORMATION FROM THE MEETING OF THE MONETARY POLICY 
COUNCIL 
held on 7-8 February 2012 
The Council decided to keep the NBP interest rates unchanged, i.e.: 
 reference rate at 4.50% on an annual basis; 
 lombard rate at 6.00% on an annual basis; 
 deposit rate at 3.00% on an annual basis; 
 rediscount rate at 4.75% on an annual basis. 
 
In 2011 Q4 global economic growth remained low. Acceleration in GDP growth in the United 
States was most probably accompanied by stagnation in the euro area. Most major emerging 
economies saw some weakening of economic activ ity. Since the last meeting of the Council 
GDP forecasts for most economies have been furt her revised downwards. Yet, there have been 
signs of possible economic stabilization in some countries. 
Inflation abroad remains elevated, albeit recen tly it abated somewhat. High commodity prices 
which have been recently on the rise again ar e one of the main factors behind heightened 
inflation. Sentiment in the global financia l markets improved which contributed to a 
considerable appreciation of emerging markets currencies, including the Polish zloty. Yet, 
uncertainty about fiscal crisis in some euro area countries continues and volatility in asset 
prices, including exchange rates, remains high. 
Preliminary data on GDP in 2011 in Poland conf irmed that in 2011 Q4 relatively robust 
economic growth continued. Economic growth was most likely still driven by domestic 
demand. Consumption growth further declined, while recovery in investment intensified. 
Relatively low level of most leading economic indicators – despite recent improvement of 
some of them – suggests likely weakening of economic activity in the coming quarters. 
Unemployment rate in December remained elevated, while employment in companies declined. 
Wage growth in enterprises remained moderate . Lending to corporates continued to rise (in 
annual terms). Similarly, mortgage lending to households remained strong, though its growth 
rate slowed down. On the other hand, consumer lending continued to fall. 
Annual CPI inflation in Decemb er decreased to 4.6%, though remaining markedly above the 
NBP's inflation target of 2.5%. PPI inflation al so saw some decline. At the same time, core 
inflation rose and inflation expectations of households and corporates increased. 
In the coming months, the annual CPI will continue at an elevated level. On the one hand, 
waning impact of VAT rate increases and considerable rises in food and energy prices observed 
in the first half of 2011 will be conducive to lowering annual inflation at the beginning of 2012. 
2 
 
On the other hand, persistently high commodity pr ices in the global markets and the effects of 
earlier zloty depreciation will be supporting heightened price grow th. Heightened inflation will 
also be driven by continuously high dynamics of administered prices. 
In the opinion of the Council, in the medium te rm inflation will be curbed by the gradually 
decelerating domestic demand. Decelerating dema nd growth will be driven by lower economic 
growth abroad, fiscal tightening in Poland and interest rate increases implemented in the first 
half of 2011. 
The impact of the situation in the global financial markets on th e zloty exchange rate and, in 
particular, the sustainability of the appreciation of the zloty in the recent period, continues to 
add uncertainty to the inflation outlook. 
In the opinion of the Council, th e monetary policy tightening impl emented in the first half of 
2011 supports inflation return to the target in th e medium term, however the risk of elevated 
inflation in the coming months remains high. At the same time the recent domestic economic 
developments indicate that the expected demand deceleration in the coming quarters may prove 
weaker than previously anticip ated. The March macroeconomic projection of the NBP will be 
helpful in the assessment of inflationary pressure in the medium term. 
The Council decided to keep the NBP interest rates unchanged. The C ouncil does not rule out 
the possibility of further monetary policy adju stments in the future, should the outlook for 
inflation returning to the target deteriorate.