Monetary policy assessment of 23 September 2021
Central bank: snb | Type: statement | Date: 2021-09-23

Monetary policy assessment of 23 September 2021
The SNB is maintaining its expansionary monetary policy with a view to ensuring price
stability and providing ongoing support to the Swiss economy in its recovery from the impact
of the coronavirus pandemic. It is keeping the SNB policy rate and interest on sight deposits
at the SNB at −0.75%, and remains willing to intervene in the foreign exchange market as
necessary, in order to counter upward pressure on the Swiss franc. In so doing, it takes the
overall currency situation into consideration. The Swiss franc remains highly valued.
The new conditional inflation forecast for 2021 and 2022 is slightly higher than in June
(cf. chart 1). This is again primarily due to somewhat higher prices for oil products as well as
for goods affected by supply bottlenecks. In the longer term, the inflation forecast is virtually
unchanged compared with June. The new forecast stands at 0.5% for 2021, 0.7% for 2022,
and 0.6% for 2023 (cf. table 1). The conditional inflation forecast is based on the assumption
that the SNB policy rate remains at −0.75% over the entire forecast horizon.
The coronavirus pandemic, which is now in its second year, is continuing to shape the global
economy. Although many countries have once again eased their containment measures since
the spring, which contributed to strong global economic growth in the second quarter,
infections have risen significantly again in numerous countries – including Switzerland – over
the summer.
In its baseline scenario for the global economy, the SNB assumes that rigorous containment
measures will no longer be necessary thanks to progress on the vaccination front. The current
solid growth momentum is thus expected to continue in the coming quarters. Nonetheless, in
many countries it will take some time for utilisation of production capacity to return to
This scenario for the global economy is subject to high uncertainty, with risks on the upside
and downside alike. On the one hand, the situation surrounding the pandemic could
23 September 2021
Press release
deteriorate, adversely affecting the economy once again. On the other hand, the economic
policy measures introduced since the outbreak of the pandemic could support the recovery
more strongly than anticipated in the baseline scenario.
In Switzerland, having declined slightly in the fourth quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of
2021, GDP increased strongly in the second quarter to just below its pre-crisis level. The
situation on the labour market also continued to improve. Recently, however, economic
momentum has slowed somewhat.
In its baseline scenario for Switzerland, the SNB anticipates a continuation of the economic
recovery. This is also based on the assumption that the pandemic containment measures will
not need to be tightened significantly again. Against this backdrop, the SNB expects GDP
growth of around 3% for 2021. In June, the SNB had still been assuming higher growth. The
downward revision is primarily attributable to the development of consumer-related industries
such as the trade industry and hospitality, which performed less dynamically than expected.
GDP is likely to return to its pre-crisis level in the second half of the year. However, overall
production capacity will remain underutilised for some time yet. Owing to the pandemic, the
forecast for Switzerland, as for the global economy, remains subject to heightened
uncertainty.
Mortgage lending and residential property prices have risen strongly in recent quarters.
Overall, the vulnerability of the mortgage and real estate markets has increased further. The
SNB regularly reassesses the need for the countercyclical capital buffer to be reactivated.
23 September 2021
Press release