CBR Quarterly Inflation Review - Q3 2011
Central bank: cbr | Type: quarterly_review | Date: 2011-09-30

THE CENTRAL BANK
OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
(BANK OF RUSSIA)
Quarterly
Inflation
Review
2011 Q3
Research and Information Department
The electronic version of Quarterly Inflation Review is available on the Bank of Russia's website:

Contents
Introduction. .................................................................................................................3
Inflation.Dynamics. ........................................................................................................4
Consumer prices ....................................................................................................................... 4
Housing prices .......................................................................................................................... 7
Producer prices ......................................................................................................................... 7
Foreign trade ............................................................................................................................ 9
Demand ................................................................................................................................. 11
Supply .................................................................................................................................... 14
Employment and unemployment ............................................................................................... 15
Monetary.Conditions...................................................................................................17
Exchange rate ........................................................................................................................ 17
Interest rates ........................................................................................................................... 19
Asset prices ............................................................................................................................ 23
Monetary aggregates .............................................................................................................. 23
Credit aggregates ................................................................................................................... 26
Bank.of.Russia.press.releases.on.monetary.policy.measures..
in.August-October.2011..............................................................................................27
Statistical.Addendum..................................................................................................30
2011 Q3 3
Introduction
In January-September 2011, the output of
goods and services continued to expand in the
Russian economy. The increased domestic de -
mand was the key driver of GDP growth. The dy -
namics of external demand remained weak due to
the lack of stability in the global economy. There
was an increase in net private capital outflow from
Russia. The dynamics of many macroeconomic in-
dicators improved in the third quarter of the year.
Most indicators registered growth in January-Sep-
tember 2011.
The number of people employed in the econ-
omy increased, while the unemployment rate fell
noticeably in January-September 2011. Con -
sumer demand expanded despite a decrease in
household real disposable money income. Growth
in fixed capital investment accelerated in the third
quarter of the year.
Agricultural producer prices were observed to
decline in the third quarter of 2011, while world
agrarian price dynamics were quite stable. The
year-on-year rate of growth in consumer prices
decelerated due to lower food prices, especially
vegetable and fruit prices. Some depreciation of
the ruble in August-September 2011 did not have
a significant negative effect on price dynamics.
Actual output continued to grow but stayed close
to its potential (natural) levels, which did not pre-
vent price growth from slowing down.
Against the backdrop of slower inflation and
persisting risks to sustainable economic growth
in July-August 2011, the Bank of Russia kept its
monetary policy parameters unchanged (the in -
terest rates on Bank of Russia operations were left
unchanged). Amid uncertainty over external eco-
nomic developments and taking into account the
situation with banking sector liquidity, in Septem-
ber 2011 the Bank of Russia symmetrically raised
interest rates on some of its liquidity absorption
operations and lowered rates on liquidity provi -
sion operations to narrow its interest rate band. In
October , the Bank of Russia kept the interest rates
on its operations unchanged and took some mea-
sures to meet the credit institutions’ increased de-
mand for refinancing instruments amid the con -
traction in banking sector liquidity.
The increased uncertainty over external eco-
nomic developments in the third quarter of 2011
affected the Russian money and capital markets.
The contraction of credit institutions’ liquid ruble
resources and the ruble’s depreciation reduced
investors’ demand for stock market instruments
and led to the predominance of downward eq -
uity price trends, while interest rates in the money
market were observed to rise. The Bank of Russia’s
measures to narrow the band of interest rates on
some of its liquidity provision and absorption op-
erations restricted the growth of interbank lend -
ing rate volatility in September-October. Interest
rates in the credit and deposit market changed
both ways.
The growth of credit aggregates continued
in the third quarter of the year. Loans to non-fi -
nancial organisations and households grew fast -
er than bank deposits in July-September 2011.
This factor is expected to increase the role of the
domestic money market in the formation of the
banks’ resource base and further strengthen their
demand for the Bank of Russia’s refinancing in -
struments.
The growth of credit activity was the main
source of the expansion of broad money in Jan -
uary-September 2011. The enhanced role of
lending in money supply is creating the basis for
the Bank of Russia to implement its interest rate
policy more effectively. The budgetary factor had
a containing effect on money supply growth due
to a considerable reduction in net claims to gen -
eral government from the Bank of Russia (largely
because of the accumulation of funds in Bank of
Russia accounts).
Monetary aggregate dynamics, particularly
the slowing of annual rates of growth in ruble
supply in January-September 2011, testified to
the gradual decrease in inflation risks attributable
to monetary factors. The current trends in mone-
tary indicators and the tightening of real monetary
conditions may create pre-requisites for a gradual
mitigation of these risks by the end of the year.
4 2011 Q3
points less compared with the same period of
2010. In September 2011, consumer prices in -
creased by 7.2 % year on year and in June 2011
they grew by 9.4 % as compared with the same
month a year earlier. Core inflation stood at 5.1 %
in the first nine months of the year as against
4.3 % in the same period last year. Year on year , it
equalled 7.4 % in September 2011. The rise in the
prices of goods and services taken into account
when calculating core inflation accounted for an
estimated 4.1 percentage points, or 86.3 % of
the inflation rate in January-September 2011 as
against 3.5 percentage points, or 55.5 %, in Jan-
uary-September 2010.
The slowing of inflation in January-Septem -
ber 2011 as compared with the same period last
year was largely attributable to the decrease in
vegetable and fruit prices, which fell by 25.2 %
over this period (in January-September 2010,
they grew by 31.3 %). The fall in vegetable and
fruit prices contributed to the deceleration of in -
flation by an estimated 1.1 percentage points, or
22.5 %. In January-September 2010, growth in
the prices of this group of foodstuffs accounted
for 1.1 percentage points, or 18.2 %, of the infla-
tion rate.
Food prices, excluding vegetable and fruit
prices, grew by 5.5 % in January-September
2011 as against 5.9 % in the first nine months of
2010. Growth in the prices of this group of food-
stuffs accounted for an estimated 1.9 percentage
points, or 39.9 %, of the inflation rate in the first
Inflation Dynamics
«The Guidelines for the Single State Mone ‑
tary Policy in 2011 and for 2012 and 2013» stip‑
ulate measures to bring the inflation rate down to
6‑7 % in 2011.
Year‑on‑year inflation changed insignifi ‑
cantly in the first half of 2011 and varied between
9.4 % and 9.6 %. In the third quarter of 2011,
food prices were observed to decline amid a fall
in the prices of Russian agricultural producers and
the relatively calm situation in the world markets
of agricultural raw materials and foodstuffs. The
decrease in food prices was the key factor, which
brought year‑on‑year inflation down to 7.2 %
in September. The growth of paid service prices
was unchanged from the third quarter of 2010,
while the prices of non‑food goods grew some ‑
what faster than in the same period last year due
to the steady increase in consumer demand. If the
current trends continue and no shocks occur, Rus‑
sia will keep inflation within the targeted range in
2011.
As compared with the same period last year,
producer prices in the first nine months of 2011
were marked by faster growth of producer pric ‑
es of industrial goods and by slower growth of
producer prices of building materials and freight
transportation charges.
Consumer prices
According to the Federal State Statistics Ser -
vice (Rosstat), consumer prices rose by 4.7 % in
January-September 2011 or by 1.5 percentage
Consumer price inflation (%)
Growth
Change, percentage pointsSeptember 2011
on December 2010
September 2010
on December 2009
Prices of goods and services, total 4.7 6.2 Slowing of growth by 1.5
of which:
– food prices 2.1 8.4 Slowing of growth by 6.3
of which:
– food prices, excluding vegetable and fruit prices 5.5 5.9 Slowing of growth by 0.4
– non-food prices 5.0 3.1 Acceleration of growth by 1.9
– prices of paid services provided to households 8.1 7.4 Acceleration of growth by 0.7
Prices of goods and services included in core inflation calculation 5.1 4.3 Acceleration of growth by 0.8
Source: Rosstat.
Inflation Dynamics
2011 Q3 5
nine months of 2011, as against an estimated 2.0
percentage points, or 32.9 %, in the same period
of 2010. In the first nine months of 2011, the
most significant increase in food prices, excluding
vegetable and fruit prices, was registered in the
prices of bread and bakery products, fish and sea-
food, meat and poultry, which grew by 6.9-8.3 %
(as compared with 1.8-4.6 % in the same period
of 2010). The prices of most other basic food -
stuffs showed considerably lower growth rates in
January-September 2011 than in the same pe -
riod a year earlier. The prices of granulated sugar
and eggs went down.
Overall, food prices increased by 2.1 % in
January-September 2011 as compared with
8.4 % in the same period of previous year.
Growth in non-food prices accelerated to
5.0 % in the first nine months of 2011 from 3.1 %
in the same period of 2010. The increase in non-
food prices accounted for an estimated 1.8 per -
centage points, or 37.7 %, of the inflation rate in
January-September 2011 as compared with 1.1
percentage points, or 18.3 %, in the same period
last year. The biggest growth was registered in
the prices of tobacco products (17.5 % as com -
pared with 15.3 % in January-September 2010)
Food price inflation (%)
Growth
Change, percentage points
September 2011 on December 2010 September 2010 on December 2009
Foodstuffs 2.1 8.4 Slowing of growth by 6.3
Bread and bakery products 8.3 4.6 Acceleration of growth by 3.7
Groats and beans 3.9 36.6 Slowing of growth by 32.7
Pasta 3.9 1.4 Acceleration of growth by 2.5
Meat and poultry 6.9 4.2 Acceleration of growth by 2.7
Fish and seafood 7.6 1.8 Acceleration of growth by 5.8
Milk and dairy products 3.7 10.5 Slowing of growth by 6.8
Butter 4.0 14.4 Slowing of growth by 10.4
Sunflower oil 5.1 6.8 Slowing of growth by 1.7
Granulated sugar -14.2 13.2
Vegetables and fruit -25.2 31.3
Alcoholic beverages 6.3 6.9 Slowing of growth by 0.6
Source: Rosstat.
6 2011 Q3
and petrol (13.9 % as against 3.8 % in the same
period last year). The growth of petrol prices ac -
counted for an estimated 1.0 percentage points,
or 19.1 %, of the overall non-food price growth
in January-September 2011. The growth in the
prices of textiles, clothing, underwear , knitwear
and footwear did not exceed 5.0 %. The prices of
television sets and radios went down.
The prices of paid services provided to house-
holds gained 8.1 % in January-September 2011
as against 7.4 % in the same period of 2010 and it
has been estimated that their increase accounted
An analysis of the price growth distribution for goods and services is made to expose additional risks
related to different price dynamics demonstrated by various components of the consumer basket. This distribu‑
tion is based on a sample of more than 450 goods and services included in the consumer basket, regardless of
their weights in consumer spending.
In 2008‑2011, the share of consumer goods and services, which demonstrated price growth ranging from
0 to 2% in the third quarter, was observed to increase steadily. In the third quarter of 2011, this share stood at
60% as against 56.4% in the same period last year. In the third quarter of 2011, the share of goods and services,
whose prices had dropped, decreased by 1.6 percentage points year on year to 15.6%; however, the proportion
of goods and services, whose prices had declined significantly, increased.
The key characteristics of the distribution are the median, mean, and standard deviation. In the third quar‑
ter of 2011, the median, which in this type of distribution reflects the price growth of the bulk of goods and
services, measured 1.2%, as in the previous year, and was lower than in 2008 and 2009 (2.3% and 1.6% re ‑
spectively). The mean decreased by 1.4 percentage points in the third quarter of 2011 as compared with the
same period of 2010 and stood at 0.4%. The standard deviation, which shows how diffuse the distribution is,
increased to 6.5%, as against 6.0% a year earlier. The most significant increase (by one percentage point) was
demonstrated by the standard deviation in the distribution of price growth for paid services as a result of a steep
decline in the prices of some types of transportation services (by 14%).
The key characteristics of the price growth distribution (the mean values and standard deviations) differed
significantly by major groups of goods and services. The price growth distribution for non‑food goods and ser‑
vices showed low standard deviations (1.9% and 2.8% respectively) and the mean at 1.5% and 1.1% in the
third quarter of 2011. The price growth distribution for foodstuffs, on the contrary, demonstrated significant
standard deviations (12.0%) and the lowest mean (‑2.4%) due to a considerable share of foodstuffs whose
prices had dropped. Price decreases by 24‑28% were demonstrated by 3.2% of all foodstuffs (1.6% in the third
quarter of 2010), while the prices of 4% of all foodstuffs fell by more than 28% (there were no such foodstuffs
in July‑September 2010).
The medians of price growth distributions of foodstuffs, non‑food goods and services differed insignifi ‑
cantly in the third quarter of 2011, ranging from 1.0% to 1.4% (from 0.9% to 1.4% in the third quarter of
2010). These characteristics were stable enough during the past two years, suggesting steady growth in the
prices of these components of the consumer basket.
Inflation Dynamics
2011 Q3 7
used by the Federal State Statistics Service for in -
terregional comparisons of the purchasing power
of the population. Specifically, the regional differ-
ence ratio1 increased to 40.8 % from 39.6 % in
September last year.
The rates of growth in food prices, exclud -
ing vegetable and fruit prices, ranged from 4.8 %
to 7.0 % in the federal districts in January-Sep -
tember 2011, while the rates of non-food price
growth changed within the range of 4.4-5.6 %.
Vegetable and fruit prices went down in all
the federal districts in the first nine months of
2011. At the same time, the rates of the decrease
in vegetable and fruit prices differed significantly
by region. For example, these prices fell by 31.1 %
in the Central Federal District and by 1.4 % in the
Far Eastern Federal District.
The rates of growth in service prices in the
federal districts varied between 6.9 % and 10.7 %
in January-September 2011 and, except for the
North Caucasian and Urals Districts, were higher
than in the same period last year.
Housing prices
Housing prices increased by 4.8 % in the
primary market and by 3.4 % in the secondary
market in September 2011 from December of
the previous year. Over the same period of 2010,
housing prices grew by 0.1 % in the primary mar-
ket and by 1.8 % in the secondary market.
In January-September 2011, housing price
dynamics were influenced by some rebound in
the real estate market amid growth in commis -
sioned housing. Specifically, the floorspace com -
missioned in January-September 2011 grew by
2.8 %, whereas in the same period last year it
contracted by 5.8 %.
Producer prices
Industrial producer prices rose by 10.7 %
in January-September 2011 as against 8.2 % in
the same period a year earlier. The accelerated
growth in producer prices was mainly attribut -
able to the considerable increase in mining and
quarrying prices. Producer prices in this type of
economic activity grew by 21.8 % during the first
1 The regional difference ratio is calculated by the Bank of
Russia as the difference between the price of a fixed set of
goods and services in the most and least expensive regions
relative to the national average cost of the set.
for 2.1 percentage points, or 44.9 %, of the head-
line consumer price growth as compared with 1.9
percentage points, or 30.6 %, of the inflation rate
in January-September 2010. Price growth ac -
celerated for all types of services included in the
core inflation calculation in the first nine months
of 2011. The largest growth was registered in the
prices of sanatoria, resorts and health-improving
services (15.1 %), and preschool tuition services
(10.9 %). In January-September 2010, these fig-
ures were 7.4 % and 6.6 %.
Growth in the administered service prices
slowed by 1.3 percentage points in January-Sep-
tember 2011 year on year and stood at an esti -
mated 10.0 %. Housing and utility prices grew by
11.2 % as against 12.2 % in January-September
2010. Passenger transport fees rose by 7.6 % in
the third quarter of 2011 as against 7.3 % in the
same period a year earlier.
The growth in the prices of paid services
provided to households in the first nine months
of 2011 exceeded the overall increase in goods
prices by 4.6 percentage points (as compared
with 1.6 percentage points in the same period of
2010).
According to Rosstat data, consumer price
growth was slower in all the federal districts of
Russia in January-September 2011 than in the
same period last year.
Estimates show that in September 2011
there were larger differences between constitu -
ent territories of the Russian Federation in terms
of the price of a fixed set of goods and services
8 2011 Q3
bacco products slowed down by 6.0 percentage
points to 1.5 % whereas growth in the producer
prices of some non-food goods accelerated. The
highest producer price growth was registered in
the output of petroleum products (by 15.3 %
as compared with 9.4 % in January-September
2010).
Freight transportation charges rose by
17.7 % in the first nine months of 2011 as against
45.0 % in the same period last year. Railway trans-
port fares went up by 7.5 % as against 9.4 % a
year earlier.
Communications fees for corporate enti-
ties grew by 3.9 % in January-September 2011
as against 7.0 % in the same period of 2010.
nine months of 2011 as against 1.8 % in the same
period last year. Fuel and energy producer prices
increased by 22.7 % as compared with 0.1 % in
January-September 2010.
In January-September 2011, price growth in
the production and distribution of electricity, gas
and water slowed to 3.4 % from 13.6 % in the
same period of 2010.
Producer prices in manufacturing industries
rose by 8.2 % in the first nine months of 2011,
a decrease of 2.3 percentage points as compared
with the same period last year. Growth in produc-
er prices for most basic types of industrial goods
decelerated. Producer price growth in the produc-
tion of foodstuffs, including beverages, and to -
Inflation Dynamics
2011 Q3 9
to fall in the second quarter and this trend contin‑
ued in the third quarter. World grain prices started
to decline, contributing to the seasonal decrease
in the prices of some foodstuffs in the domestic
consumer market.
The price situation for major Russian export
commodities in world markets2 was favourable in
January-September 2011. World energy prices
grew by 39 % on average in January-September
2011 as compared with the same period last year ,
while non-energy prices gained 19 %.
World oil prices in the first nine months of
2011 were largely influenced by the exacerbating
political situation in North Africa and the Middle
East and instability in the eurozone. The high level
of world oil prices was supported by China’s strong
demand for crude oil and the channelling of con-
siderable funds into commodities markets. High
2 Average prices are based on data reported daily by the fol‑
lowing news agencies and exchanges: Reuters for oil, Fi ‑
nancial Times for petroleum products (petrol, diesel fuel
and fuel oil) and sugar. Ferrous metal prices have been
gauged on the basis of price indices, while prices of natu ‑
ral gas, non‑ferrous metals (aluminium, copper and nickel)
and other commodities are monthly averages published by
the World Bank and the IMF .
Building materials producer prices went
up by 6.8 % in January-September 2011 as com-
pared with 7.3 % in the same period a year earlier.
Agricultural producer prices fell by 3.9 % in
the first nine months of 2011 (they grew by 8.3 %
in the corresponding period of 2010). Livestock
prices decreased by 2.0 % (they grew by 6.1 % in
the first nine months of 2010). Crop grower prices
went down by 6.2 % (they increased by 12.0 % in
January-September 2010). Grain producer prices
grew by 1.4 % (by 13.1 % in January-September
2010), while sunflower producer prices went up
by 4.2 % (by 20.9 % in the same period last year).
Foreign trade
Conditions for Russia’s trade improved in Jan‑
uary‑September 2011 compared with the same
period last year as export prices grew faster than
import prices. At the same time, world energy
prices in the third quarter of 2011 were virtually
unchanged from the previous quarter. Producer
prices for oil and petrol increased in the domestic
market in the third quarter and this growth was
accompanied by increases in consumer prices of
petrol. In the world food markets, prices tended
Inflation in countries trading with Russia1
Consumer price growth in the countries that account for a considerable weight in the structure of Russian
imports equalled 6.7% in the third quarter of 2011 as compared with the same period of the previous year
(this growth stood at 5.4% in the second quarter of 2011). The inflation processes in the countries trading
with Russia in the third quarter of 2011 were driven
by the high price growth in the Republic of Belarus
as a result of changes in its exchange rate policy in
May 2011, and were also influenced by the statisti ‑
cal base effect.
The growth of world energy and agricultural
product prices came to a halt in the third quarter of
2011. Oil prices increased in July but dropped in Au‑
gust and did not change significantly in September.
The FAO food price index was observed to decrease
in the third quarter of 2011. Estimates show that
economic growth in the countries trading with Rus ‑
sia slowed down. The consumer price growth in the
United States decelerated in July‑September 2011
as compared with the previous quarter as a result of
lower prices of energy products. In the eurozone, the
growth of energy prices accelerated as a result of the
euro’s weakening in the third quarter of this year;
however, the slowing of core inflation helped ease
inflationary pressure.
1 According to data reported by national statistics agencies of Russia’s trading partners.
10 2011 Q3
levels of US commercial oil inventories restrained
oil price growth. As a result, world oil prices re -
mained high in January-September 2011, with
the price of Urals crude averaging $ 109.7 per
barrel, or 44.7 % more as compared with the
same period last year. Natural gas prices in Europe
increased by 24.5 % in January-September 2011.
Petroleum product prices increased by 40 %
on average in January-September 2011 as com -
pared with the corresponding period last year. The
price of diesel fuel grew at the highest rate — by
42 %, petrol — by 38 %, and fuel oil — by 37 %.
Despite some slowdown of ferrous metal
prices in the third quarter of 2011, they were on
average by 16 % higher in the first nine months of
2011 than in the same period last year. The fall in
world non-ferrous metal prices accelerated in the
third quarter of 2011 but still they were on aver -
age by 18 % higher in January-September 2011
than in the same period last year. The prices of
copper went up by 29 %, aluminium by 18 % and
nickel by 15 %.
World grain prices largely tended to fall in the
third quarter of 2011. However , they were con -
siderably higher in the first nine months of 2011
than in the same period last year (the price of
wheat was higher by a factor of 1.6, maize by al-
most 1.8 and barley by 1.4).
The world prices of monitored foodstuffs
changed both ways in the third quarter of 2011.
Inflation Dynamics
2011 Q3 11
Demand
In January‑September 2011, growing do ‑
mestic demand did not prevent consumer price
growth from slowing down: actual output of
goods and services was estimated close to the po‑
tential (natural) level.
Household consumer spending growth re ‑
mained high in January‑September 2011. In
April this year, fixed capital investment resumed
its growth, which quickened in the third quarter.
However, overall investment activity remained
weak in the first nine months of 2011.
The external demand for Russian export
commodities remained weak in January‑Septem‑
ber 2011, restricting export quantities.
Beef and vegetable fat prices continued to de -
crease, whereas pork and poultry prices kept
growing. World sugar prices resumed their
growth. Despite a fall in the prices of some food -
stuffs, the prices of all monitored food products
were on average higher in January-September
2011 than in the same period a year earlier. Year
on year , the prices of beef increased by 23 %,
pork by 17 %, poultry by 1 %, raw sugar by 40 %,
refined sugar by 32 % and palm oil by 39 % in
January-September 2011.
The terms of Russia’s trade improved in Janu-
ary-September 2011 as compared with the same
period last year as export prices grew faster than
import prices.
International trade
The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that in January‑September 2011 the world consumption
of oil increased by 1.3% as compared with the same period last year. In European countries that are members of
the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), oil consumption fell by 1.1%. According
to the IEA forecasts, global oil consumption will grow by 1.1% in 2011, but in Europe (OECD member countries)
it will decline by 1.3%. Oil consumption growth in Asian countries in 2011 is estimated at 4.2%.
The average price of Brent, Dubai and West T exas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose to $104.3 per barrel in
January‑September 2011 (by 35.6%) from $76.9 per barrel in the first nine months of 2010. In September
2011, the IMF lowered its 2011 forecast on the average price of the three crude oil benchmarks to $103.2 per
barrel as compared with its June forecast of $106.3 per barrel.
According to Eurostat data, EU import quantities of mineral fuel and lubricants increased by 3.9% in Janu‑
ary‑August 2011 as compared with the same period of 2010, while the average unit cost of the imports of these
commodities1 increased by 31.3%. According to IMF data, the price of Russian natural gas exported to Germany
was on average by 25.3% higher in January‑September 2011 than in the same period last year.
1 The average unit cost of imports is the ratio of changes between the value of imports of particular commodities and the
import quantities.
12 2011 Q3
Domestic demand
Economic growth in January-September
2011 was largely facilitated by rising domestic
demand.
Real wage increases, improved labour market
conditions and enhanced borrowing by house -
holds contributed to the growth of consumer
demand. In the third quarter , the growth of real
household spending on goods and services slight-
ly accelerated and in January-September 2011 it
increased by an estimated 6.9 %.
The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) 3 re-
flecting consumer expectations improved in the
third quarter as compared with the previous quar-
ter. The improvement was the result of growth in
the indices reflecting changes that had occurred
in the Russian economy and the respondents’
well-being, and also favourable conditions for
large purchases.
Household real disposable money income
was observed to grow in the third quarter but in
January-September 2011 it fell by 0.2 %. The
share of consumer spending in the structure of
household money income use increased by 4.9
percentage points in the first nine months of 2011
on the corresponding period of 2010 to 76.3 %.
As interest rates on retail deposits remained low,
household propensity for organised savings de -
creased. The share of spending on the purchase
of foreign currency increased by 0.7 percentage
points in January-September to 4.2 %.
3 According to Rosstat studies, the CCI is calculated as an
arithmetic mean of five indices: past and expected changes
in personal well‑being, past and expected changes in the
economic situation in Russia, and favourable conditions for
large purchases.
As domestic demand expanded and the
ruble appreciated, the imports of goods grew
rapidly in value in the first half of 2011 but this
growth slowed down in the third quarter due to
the ruble’s depreciation in the quarter’s second
half. Nevertheless, this growth was faster in Janu-
ary-September 2011 than in January-September
2008. Almost two-thirds of the growth in imports
was the result of the expansion of import quan -
tities and almost one-third was the result of the
increased import prices. Imports of investment
goods grew faster than food imports. The imports
of goods4 increased by 35 % in January-Septem-
ber 2011 year on year to $ 232.3 billion.
In January-June 2011, the share of imported
goods in the retail trade resources stood at 42 %
(the share of non-food imports was unchanged
4 Balance of payments estimate as of October 4, 2011.
GDP consumption
(growth as % of corresponding period of previous year)
2010 2011
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Full year Q1 Q2
GDP 3.5 5.0 3.1 4.5 4.0 4.1 3.4
Final consumption 0.3 3.8 4.0 1.9 2.5 4.0 4.9
of which:
– households - 0.5 4.7 5.1 2.7 3.0 5.7 6.6
Gross capital formation 0.8 27.9 29.8 39.3 28.4 44.2 17.8
Exports 18.7 4.1 2.2 5.0 7.1 0.0 3.5
Imports 11.4 21.7 34.8 30.1 25.6 23.1 23.4
Source: Rosstat.
Inflation Dynamics
2011 Q3 13
from the same period last year and equalled
50.5 %, while the share of food imports contract-
ed by one percentage point to 34 %).
In the first half of 2011, government expen-
ditures on final consumption increased by 0.3 %.
According to the Federal Treasury’s data, general
budget expenditure decreased to 33.4 % of GDP
in January-September 2011 as against 35.4 % in
the same period of 2010. Non-interest expen -
ditures accounted for 32.7 % of GDP as against
34.7 % in the same period a year earlier.
In January-September 2011, the general
government registered a budget surplus of 6.3 %
of GDP , which represents an increase of 6.0 per-
centage points as compared with the same pe -
riod last year. The improved budget balance, on
the one hand, was related to higher oil and gas
revenues and, on the other hand, reflected the
impact of the government’s planned tightening
of its fiscal policy for the purpose of strengthen -
ing macroeconomic stability and sustainability of
government finance.
Gross fixed capital formation increased by
5 % in the second quarter of 2011 as compared
with the same period last year. Fixed capital in -
vestment grew by 7.7 % in the third quarter and
by 4.8 % in January-September 2011. About
one-third of total investment was used to pur -
chase machinery, equipment and vehicles, with
investments directed to buy imported equipment,
increasing by 0.8 percentage points in the first
half of 2011, as compared with the correspond -
ing period of 2010, to 20.9 %.
Fixed capital investment was financed pre -
dominantly by raised funds, which accounted for
53.9 % in January-June 2011, a contraction of
1.2 percentage points from the same period last
year.
With imported quantities of goods and ser -
vices growing faster than their exports in January-
September 2011, net exports of goods and ser -
vices were estimated to register negative growth.
Foreign demand
Foreign demand for Russian goods remained
weak in January-September 2011. Exports of
oil, petroleum products, ferrous and non-ferrous
metals (except aluminium) and some other com-
modities shrank. Growth was registered in the ex-
port quantities of natural gas, aluminium, motor
cars and some types of mineral fertiliser. Exports
increased by 32 % in January-September 2011
to $ 380.1 billion 5 largely due to higher prices.
Growth rates in exports to EU member countries
lagged behind the overall export growth rates.
The EU share in Russia’s commodities exports fell
by 1.5 percentage points in January-September
2011 from the same period of 2010. Within
this group of countries, the proportions of major
importers of Russian goods, such as the Nether -
lands and Italy, declined, while Germany’s share
rose slightly. Growth rates in exports to the Asia-
Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) countries
were considerably higher than the overall export
growth rates. The share of APEC member coun -
tries in Russia’s commodities exports grew by 1.1
percentage points. Within this group of countries,
China and the United States increased their pro -
portions, while Japan saw its share drop. Exports
to CIS member countries increased faster than
5 Balance of payments estimate as of October 4, 2011.
Economic growth in foreign countries1
GDP in the group of countries carrying much weight in the structure of Russian exports increased by an
estimated 3.8% in January‑September 2011 as compared with the same period last year (it grew by 3.9% in
January‑September 2010). Preliminary data and estimates suggest that GDP grew by 1.8% in the United States,
by 1.8% in the eurozone and by 9.4% in China. Economic growth in the Republic of Belarus slowed down con‑
siderably in the third quarter of 2011.
In September 2011, the IMF lowered its 2011 growth forecast for the global production of goods and
services to 4.0% as compared with the forecast released in June (growth by 4.3%). The trend towards consump‑
tion growth is observed to weaken in large advanced economies. Risks posed by weak labour and bank credit
markets are accompanied by inflationary pressure on real incomes, the tightening of fiscal policy and the tense
situation in financial markets. In many developing countries, the task to curb inflation has required the tightening
of monetary policy.
1 According to data compiled by the national statistics agencies of Russia’s trading partners.
14 2011 Q3
the lowest rate was observed in the chemical in -
dustry (75 %).
Agricultural output increased by 15.9 % in
January-September 2011. The production of key
livestock products increased. The output of meat
and meat products grew by 6.9 %, of which meat,
including by-products, rose by 4.6 %. According
to the Ministry of Agriculture’s data, a total of
93.4 million tonnes of grain had been threshed
by mid-October , or 50 % more than in the same
period last year , including 57.9 million tonnes of
wheat (an increase of 38.9 %).
In January-September 2011, GDP increased
by 4.1 % as compared with the corresponding pe-
overall exports largely due to growth in exports to
Belarus and Ukraine.
Supply
Capacity utilisation in industry continued to
improve in 2011, running close to its natural level,
and approached its pre‑crisis levels.
In January-September 2011, output in the
key types of economic activity rose by 4.9 % (as
compared with 5.5 % in January-September
2010). Production growth was registered in all
the key types of economic activity.
Industrial output grew by 5.2 % in January-
September 2011 as against 8.9 % in the same pe-
riod of 2010. High growth rates were registered
in manufacturing industries, with the production
of transport vehicles, rubber and plastic products,
machinery and equipment rising substantially.
Output in the mining and quarrying increased
by 2.4 %; particularly high growth was registered
in the mining and quarrying of metal ores and
other minerals. Oil output expanded by 0.8 % and
gas production grew by 4.6 %.
Industrial production capacity utilisation ra -
tio increased and actually reached the pre-crisis
level. The Russian Economic Barometer reported
that capacity utilisation ratio averaged 77.8 % in
January-August 2011 as compared with 71.1 %
in January-August 2010. In August, the indus -
trial capacity utilisation leaders were metallurgy
(88 %), the light and food industries, and also the
building materials industry (84 % each), whereas
Inflation Dynamics
2011 Q3 15
riod of 2010. Actual output is estimated close to
its potential (natural level), which does not pre -
vent price growth from slowing down.
Employment and unemployment
In January‑September 2011, wage growth
did not exceed labour productivity growth, which
suggests that there was no additional pressure on
prices.
The number of people employed in the econ-
omy increased by 1.4 % in January-September
2011 as compared with 0.5 % in the same period
last year.
The number of workers employed partially
on the employer’s initiative contracted by 56 %
in September 2011 from December 2010 and by
54.7 % from September 2010, which suggested
that labour utilisation was growing in the econo -
my.
In January-September 2011, labour pro -
ductivity increased by an estimated 2.6 % and its
growth was faster in the goods producing sector
than in the services sector. Growth in the output of
services was slower than in the output of goods.
Real wages grew by 2.7 % in January-Sep -
tember 2011 and matched the labour productiv-
ity growth. Unit labour costs measured as a share
of compensation of employees (including unde -
clared compensation and mixed income), contin-
ued to decline in the breakdown of GDP by source
Average monthly imputed wage by type of economic activity
(January-August 2011)
Type of activity Rubles As % of the all-Russian level
Total 22,532 100
Agriculture, etc. 11,752 52
Mining and quarrying 42,348 188
Manufacturing industries 20,996 93
Electricity, gas and water production and distribution 26,362 117
Construction 22,977 102
Wholesale and retail trade, etc. 20,431 91
Transport and communications 28,082 125
Financial activity 53,172 by 2.4 times
Real estate and other transactions 27,279 121
Public administration, etc. 24,992 111
Education 14,556 65
Public health care and social services 16,690 74
Public utility services, etc. 17,326 77
Source: Rosstat.
16 2011 Q3
of income. They fell by 0.5 percentage points in
the first half of 2011 to 52.7 % as compared with
the corresponding period last year.
Significant differences in wage levels between
various types of economic activity remained this
year.
The total number of unemployed dropped
by 11.7 % in January-September 2011 to 6 % of
the economically active population as of the end
of September (6.6 % as of the end of September
2010). Total unemployment exceeded the num -
ber of registered unemployed by a factor of 3.5.
Most of the jobless were looking for work without
any support of the employment services.
Total unemployment was estimated below
the potential rate in January-September 2011.
2011 Q3 17
The nominal ruble/US dollar rate de-
creased by 3.6% in the third quarter of 2011 (in
the second quarter of the year it grew by 4.6%).
The ruble strengthened by 0.3% against the US
dollar in July but weakened by 3.0% in August
and by 5.7% in September. As of October 1,
2011, the official rate of the US dollar against the
ruble was 32.1100. In October , the ruble contin-
ued to depreciate against the dollar and weak -
ened by 2.7%. As of November 1, 2011, the of -
ficial rate of the US dollar against the ruble stood
at 30.1245.
The nominal ruble/euro rate decreased by
1.9% in the third quarter of 2011 (by 0.7% in
the second quarter of the year). The nominal rate
of the ruble against the single European currency
demonstrated mixed intramonth dynamics in the
period under review: it strengthened by 0.8% in
July, depreciated by 3.0% in August and weak -
ened by 2.3% in September. The official rate of
the euro against the ruble stood at 43.4191 as of
October 1, 2011. In October , the ruble depreciat-
ed by 1.8% against the single European currency.
As a result, the official rate of the euro against the
ruble stood at 42.1833 as of November 1, 2011.
The ruble value of the bi-currency basket
tended to grow for most of the third quarter to
reach 37.1991 rubles as of October 1, 2011. In
Exchange rate
Favourable conditions continued to shape up
in the domestic foreign exchange market at the
beginning of the third quarter of 2011 and were
conducive to the ruble’s appreciation against
major global currencies. However , starting from
August, investor risk aversion increased under
the impact of such factors as the deterioration of
current indicators and global economic outlook,
the tense financial situation in the eurozone, and
also the downgrade of sovereign ratings of some
countries, including the United States. These fac-
tors generated capital outflow, which affected the
depreciation of the currencies of some countries,
including the Russian ruble. The situation in the
Russian foreign exchange market was aggravated
by the fall of the world prices of raw materials. In
these conditions, the ruble depreciated against
the US dollar and the euro.
According to preliminary data, the current
account surplus stood at $73.6 billion in January-
September 2011 (as compared with $56.3 billion
in the first half of 2011). Estimates showed that
net private capital outflow increased to $18.7 bil-
lion in the third quarter from $9.2 billion in the
second quarter of 2011. Russia’s international re-
serves fell by 1.5% in the third quarter of the year
to $516.8 billion as of October 1, 2011.
Monetary Conditions
18 2011 Q3
second quarter of 2011). This rate was consid -
erably lower than the nominal ruble/euro rate,
which suggests that in July-September 2011 the
national currency was relatively stable against the
currencies of Russia’s major trading partners out-
side the eurozone.
October , the value of the operational benchmark
decreased to 35.5510 rubles as of November 1,
2011.
The nominal effective rate of the ruble
against foreign currencies decreased by 0.5%
in July-September 2011 (it grew by 2.4% in the
International currency market
In the international foreign exchange market, the US dollar depreciated by about 4.5% against the euro
in January‑September 2011 (September 2011 on December 2010) due to the growth of money supply in the
United States and the widening of the US trade deficit. In the third quarter of 2011, the dollar strengthened
against the euro and many other currencies as a result of heightened investor risk aversion over the debt crisis in
Greece, which prompted short‑term capital inflows into the United States.
In January‑September 2011, the Swiss franc, the Japanese yen, and also the Czech koruna strengthened
against the US dollar and the euro. The Chinese yuan, the South Korean won, the British pound, the Swedish
krona and the Hungarian forint strengthened against
the US dollar but weakened against the euro. There
were no significant changes in the exchange rates of
the Kazakh tenge and the Ukrainian hryvnia against
the US dollar. The Brazilian real, the Polish zloty, the
Indian rupee, the Turkish lira and the Belarusian ruble
depreciated against the world’s two major curren ‑
cies.
In the third quarter of 2011, the US dollar
strengthened against the currencies of most of Rus‑
sia’s major trading partners, except for Japan and
China. Most currencies, including the Brazilian real,
the Indian rupee, the Swedish krona and the Czech
koruna, the Polish zloty, the Hungarian forint and
the Turkish lira also depreciated against the euro.
The fall in the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble
was moderate in the third quarter of 2011 after its
sharp devaluation in May, although large differences
persisted between the exchange rates in various seg‑
ments of the Belarusian foreign exchange market.
Monetary Conditions
2011 Q3 19
level of market interest rates was acceptable to
secure a balance between measures to restrict in-
flationary pressure and the possibility of economic
slowdown.
At the same time, from September 15,
2011, the Bank of Russia lowered interest rates
on some of its refinancing operations by 0.25
percentage points and raised fixed rates on de -
posit operations by the same amount. The Bank
of Russia’s decision to narrow the band of interest
rates on some of its operations to provide and ab-
sorb liquidity was aimed at restricting the volatil -
ity of money market rates amid the contraction of
banking sector liquidity. The fixed rates on over -
night loans, currency swap operations and loans
extended against non-market assets or guaran -
tees with maturities from 181 to 365 days, and
also the refinancing rate were left unchanged at
8.25% p.a.
In the third quarter of 2011, the interest rates
on ruble-denominated interbank loans extend-
ed for various terms increased gradually but were
observed to rise sharply during the tax payment
periods. Fluctuations in the MIACR on overnight
interbank ruble loans amounted to 1.6 percent -
age points in July-September 2011 (as compared
with 1.8 percentage points in April-June 2011).
The average MIACR on overnight interbank ruble
loans stood at 4.2% p.a. in the third quarter as
against 3.6% p.a. in the second quarter of 2011.
In October 2011, the MIACR on overnight in -
terbank ruble loans moved within the range of
4.1-5.6% p.a. The average MIACR on overnight
The real ruble/US dollar rate decreased
by 3.8% in the third quarter of 2011 (it grew by
4.3% in the second quarter of 2011). The index
of the nominal ruble/US dollar rate, which con -
siderably exceeded the inflation rate in Russia and
the United States in July-September 2011, made
the biggest contribution to the real ruble/US dol-
lar rate dynamics. Estimates show that in October
2011 the ruble continued to depreciate against
the US dollar in real terms and decreased by 2.4%.
The real ruble/euro rate fell by 2.0% in
July-September 2011 (by 0.3% in the second
quarter of 2011). The relative contribution of the
corresponding nominal exchange rate to the real
ruble/euro rate dynamics increased substantially
due to high volatility of the nominal exchange rate
in July-September 2011. Preliminary estimates
show that the ruble weakened by 1.7% in real
terms against the single European currency in Oc-
tober 2011.
The real effective rate of the ruble against
foreign currencies depreciated by 1.9% in the
third quarter of 2011 (it grew by 1.6% in the sec-
ond quarter of 2011). According to preliminary
data, the real effective rate of the ruble continued
to decrease against foreign currencies in October
2011 and fell by 1.2%.
Interest rates
The Bank of Russia Board of Directors took
decisions on June 30, August 4 and October 28,
2011 to keep interest rates on Bank of Russia op-
erations unchanged, believing that the current
20 2011 Q3
for a term of 1-3 months from 4.7% p.a. to 5.6%
p.a.
In August-September 2011, interest rates
on household deposits slightly increased. The
average interest rate on short-term household
ruble deposits in the third quarter of 2011 stood
at 5.1% p.a. as in the previous quarter. The aver-
interbank ruble loans in October 2011 increased
by 0.4 percentage points, month on month, to
4.9% p.a. The average interest rate on interbank
ruble loans placed by Russian banks for a term of
2-7 days increased from 3.7% p.a. in 2011 Q2
to 4.1% p.a. in 2011 Q3, for a term of 8-30 days
from 4.1% p.a. to 4.6% p.a., and on loans placed
Liquidity situation and Bank of Russia operations
Bank of Russia average daily obligations to credit institutions on deposits and bonds contracted to 373.6
billion rubles in the third quarter of 2011 from 1,124.2 billion rubles in the first half of the year. Credit institu ‑
tions’ demand for Bank of Russia liquidity provision instruments remained insignificant for most of the third
quarter of 2011. Despite this, some credit institutions took part in the auctions held to place federal budget
funds on deposit accounts with commercial banks. Average daily claims to credit institutions in the third quar ‑
ter of 2011 equalled about 30 billion rubles on Bank of Russia refinancing instruments and around 615 billion
rubles on federal budget operations (about 8 billion rubles and 190 billion rubles, respectively, in the first half of
2011). In the period between July and the first half of September, the MIACR on overnight ruble loans deviated
by an average of 0.39 percentage points from the lower limit of the Bank of Russia interest rate band as com ‑
pared with 0.17 percentage points in the first half of 2011.
From mid‑September 2011, amid the deteriorating situation in global financial markets and the expecta ‑
tions of the ruble’s depreciation, Russian credit institutions started to regularly apply for Bank of Russia refinanc‑
ing instruments. In October 2011, Bank of Russia average daily claims to credit institutions on refinancing op ‑
erations exceeded 390 billion rubles. In the meantime, federal budget funds continued to be placed on deposit
accounts with commercial banks. In October 2011, the average daily value of these funds reached almost 1,050
billion rubles. At the same time, credit institutions’ funds in Bank of Russia instruments to absorb liquidity con ‑
tracted to 168.6 billion rubles on average. In these conditions, the MIACR on overnight ruble loans moved close
to the minimum bid rate at overnight repo auctions, with the average deviation standing at ‑0.32 percentage
points in October 2011.
As credit institutions’ demand for refinancing instruments increased, the Bank of Russia took some mea ‑
sures in the fourth quarter of 2011. In particular, the Bank of Russia raised adjustment ratios for the value of
non‑market assets used as collateral for Bank of Russia loans and started to accept credit institutions’ guarantees
again. In addition, the Bank of Russia resumed the provision of loans against non‑market assets or guarantees
with maturities from 91 to 180 days. Along with these measures, considering the current situation in the money
market and current bank liquidity factors, the Bank of Russia suspended auctions for OBR placement.
Monetary Conditions
2011 Q3 21
age interest rate on long-term household deposits
(for a term of 1-3 years) grew by 0.4 percentage
points, quarter on quarter , to 6.1% p.a.
In the ruble-denominated household loan
market, the average interest rate on short-term
loans grew by 0.3 percentage points in the third
quarter of 2011, quarter on quarter , to 22.9%
p.a., and on long-term loans it fell by 0.1 percent-
age points to 17.1% p.a.
In July-September 2011, interest rates on
long-term ruble loans to non-financial organi-
sations decreased gradually, while interest rates
on short-term loans were stable, remaining below
the monthly averages of the previous quarter. The
average interest rate on short-term loans dropped
by 0.3 percentage points in the third quarter of
2011, quarter on quarter , to 8.0% p.a., and on
long-term loans it fell by 0.2 percentage points
to 10.3% p.a. The yield curve for loans to non-
financial organisations shifted slightly upward in
the third quarter of 2011, quarter on quarter , in
the up-to-1-month segment and moved down in
the segment of 1 month to 3 years.
OFZ market yields demonstrated rather
weak downward dynamics in July 2011. In Au -
gust-September 2011, government bond yields
were largely observed to increase. The average
quarterly effective OFZ market portfolio indicator
22 2011 Q3
(MPI)1 increased by 0.1 percentage points in Ju -
ly-September 2011, quarter on quarter , to 7.6%
p.a. The OFZ yield (effective MPI) rose by 0.3 per-
centage points at the end of the third quarter of
2011, quarter on quarter , to 7.8% p.a. As of the
end of October , the OFZ yields increased by less
than 0.1 percentage points, month on month.
The average effective MPI in October increased by
0.2 percentage points, month on month, to 8.0%
p.a.
1 The average duration of the OFZ bond index portfolio was
3.5 years in the second quarter and 3.6 years in the third
quarter of 2011 (calculations are based on Bank of Russia
data).
In July-September 2011, the OFZ yield curve
remained ascending in the segment of up to 6
years and was close to the horizontal line in the
segment of longer maturities. At the end of Oc -
tober 2011, the yield curve in the segment of
short-term and medium-term government bonds
shifted upward, while the yield curve slope de -
creased as compared with the beginning of July
2011, which may reflect market participants’ ex-
pectations that OFZ bond yields will decline. In the
segment of government bonds with maturities of
over 6 years, the yield curve became descending,
which suggested investors’ uncertain expecta -
tions over the long term.
Monetary Conditions
2011 Q3 23
jor world currencies. As of September 30, 2011,
the MICEX stock index fell by 18.0%, quarter on
quarter , to 1,366.54 points and the RTS stock in-
dex plunged by 29.7% to 1,341.09 points. The
average MICEX and RTS stock indices dropped by
7.8% and 11.5%, respectively, in the third quar-
ter of 2011, quarter on quarter. Equity prices in
all sectors of the Russian economy decreased con-
siderably in the third quarter of 2011. The most
significant fall in share prices was registered in
machine-building, metallurgy, telecommunica -
tions and the electric power sector.
In October 2011, Russian share prices grew
rapidly, following an upward correction in world
oil prices in the first half of the month and the re-
sumption of positive price trends in the world stock
market. As of October 31, 2011, the MICEX index
grew by 9.7%, month on month, to 1,498.60
points, and the RTS index increased by 16.6%
to 1,563.28 points. At the same time, the aver -
age MICEX and RTS stock indices were lower in
October 2011 than in the previous month. Share
prices in the key sectors of the Russian economy
increased in October 2011. The biggest growth
was registered in the chemical and petrochemical
industry, machine-building, telecommunications,
the electric power and oil and gas sectors.
Monetary aggregates
The dynamics of monetary aggregates in
January-September 2011 suggested a gradual
decrease in inflation risks conditioned by mone -
Yields on the ruble regional and corporate
bond market in July-October 2011 were similar
to OFZ yields but demonstrated higher volatility.
The average yield on regional bonds2 and the av-
erage yield on corporate bonds3 increased by 0.2
percentage points and 0.4 percentage points, re-
spectively, in July-September 2011 as compared
with the previous quarter , to 7.5% p.a. each. Re-
gional and corporate bond yields as of the end of
the third quarter of 2011 increased by 1.0 per -
centage points and 1.3 percentage points, quar -
ter on quarter , to 8.2% p.a. and 8.4% p.a., re -
spectively. In October 2011, the average regional
and corporate bond yields grew by 0.5 percent -
age points and 0.7 percentage points, month on
month, to 8.2% p.a. and 8.7% p.a., respectively.
Asset prices
Share prices declined rapidly in the Russian
equity market in the third quarter of 2011 un -
der the impact of increased uncertainty in world
capital markets amid rising global economic risks,
instability in world raw material markets, con -
tinued capital outflow from the domestic equity
market and the ruble’s depreciation against ma -
2 The average duration of the regional bond index portfolio
was 2.7 years in the second quarter and 2.5 years in the
third quarter of 2011 (based on data provided by Cbonds.
ru agency).
3 The average duration of the corporate bond index portfolio
was 1.6 years in the second quarter and 1.8 years in the
third quarter of 2011 (based on data provided by Cbonds.
ru agency).
24 2011 Q3
The slowdown in the annual growth rates of
ruble deposits in January-September 2011 was
demonstrated by both household deposits and
non-financial organisation deposits. At the same
time, in January-September 2011, the annual
rate of growth in household ruble deposits was
significantly higher than the annual rate of growth
in non-financial organisation deposits. The slow -
down in the annual growth rates of non-financial
organisation ruble deposits came to a halt in the
third quarter of 2011, and this growth equalled
17.5% as of October 1, 2011 (28.3% as of
October 1, 2010). The annual rate of growth in
tary factors. Overall, in January-September 2011,
the annual growth in ruble money supply gradu -
ally slowed down. As a result, the annual growth
rate of the monetary aggregate M2 was 21.5%
as of October 1, 2011, a decrease of 9.6 percent-
age points compared with the beginning of this
year (31.1% as of January 1, 2011) and 13.5
percentage points compared with the same date
a year earlier (35% as of October 1, 2010). At
the same time, the seasonally adjusted monthly
growth in ruble money supply started to accel -
erate in the third quarter of 2011 (this growth
slowed down in the first half of 2011).
Monetary Conditions
2011 Q3 25
The annual rates of growth in the broad
money were observed to decrease for most of the
period of January-September 2011 and equalled
20.5% as of October 1, 2011 (compared with
25.4% as of October 1, 2010). At the same time,
as the ruble depreciated considerably in August-
September 2011 and prompted growth in foreign
currency deposits in ruble terms, the annual rates
of growth in the broad money registered some in-
crease by the end of the third quarter of 2011. The
M2X seasonally adjusted monthly rates of growth
also increased in the third quarter of 2011.
Growth in lending was the main source of
broad money expansion in January-September
2011. Banks’ claims to non-financial organisa -
tions and households grew by 3.8 trillion rubles
in the first nine months of 2011 whereas their
growth in the same period last year was slower
by almost 1.5 times (1.5 trillion rubles). The en -
hanced role of lending in money supply is laying
the groundwork for the Bank of Russia to imple -
ment its interest rate policy more effectively.
The increase in banking sector net foreign as-
sets also contributed to money supply growth. In
January-September 2011, they rose by 2.5 tril -
lion rubles (by 1.2 trillion rubles in the first nine
months of 2010) mainly due to growth in the
Bank of Russia’s net foreign assets (by 1.8 tril -
lion rubles). Credit institutions’ net foreign assets
also increased but their growth was considerably
slower and equalled 0.6 trillion rubles in January-
September 2011.
household ruble deposits fell to 25.5% as of Oc -
tober 1, 2011 from 48.2% as of the same date a
year earlier.
The annual rates of growth in foreign cur -
rency deposits (in ruble terms) were consider -
ably lower than the annual rates of growth in
ruble deposits in January-September 2011. At
the same time, as the exchange rate dynamics
changed towards the ruble’s depreciation, the
rates of growth in foreign currency deposits in -
creased considerably in August-September 2011.
As a result, the annual rate of growth in foreign
currency deposits accelerated to 15.3% as of Oc-
tober 1, 2011 (this indicator decreased by 7% as
of October 1, 2010, as compared with the same
date a year earlier). Nevertheless, despite some
increase in the third quarter of 2011, the level of
dollarisation of deposits 4 was lower in January-
September 2011 than in the same period last
year and stood at 16.3% as of October 1, 2011
(17.0% as of October 1, 2010). Net foreign cur-
rency sales to households through foreign ex -
change offices slightly increased in the third quar-
ter of 2011 as compared with the first and second
quarters of this year. According to Russia’s bal -
ance of payment preliminary estimates, foreign
currency outside the banking system decreased
in January-September 2011 but to a considerably
lesser extent than in the same period of 2010.
4 The level of dollarisation in this case is the share of foreign
currency deposits (in ruble terms) in the broad money.
26 2011 Q3
slowdown in the expansion of the deposit base
from the end of 2010, the growth of loans to non-
financial organisations and households exceeded
the growth of bank deposits for the first time since
2009 in the third quarter of 2011. In these condi-
tions, banks need sources of additional financing
to maintain high rates of growth in credit aggre -
gates. Before 2008, banks resorted to external
borrowings as a source of additional financing
whereas today the most probable source is the
banks’ greater reliance on the domestic money
market, in particular , the continued growth in
banks’ demand for Bank of Russia refinancing in-
struments.
The first nine months of 2011 saw a changed
impact of the budgetary factor on money supply.
Banking sector net claims to general government
contracted by almost 3 trillion rubles in January-
September 2011 (they grew by 0.2 trillion rubles
in January-September 2010). A significant de -
crease (by 2.3 trillion rubles) in net claims to gen-
eral government from the Bank of Russia (largely
because of funds accumulated in Bank of Russia
accounts) had a considerable containing effect on
the money supply dynamics.
Credit aggregates
The growth of credit aggregates continued in
the third quarter of 2011. The debt on loans ex -
tended to non-financial organisations increased
by 10% and the debt on loans to households in -
creased by 11.2% over this period. The resulting
annual rate of growth in the total debt on loans
equalled 24.3% as of October 1, 2011, and is
likely to continue growing. Ruble-denominated
loans extended to households were the fast -
est growing credit aggregate. Thus, the annual
rate of growth in the debt on this type of loans
equalled 34.8% as of October 1, 2011 compared
with 9.6% as of the same date a year earlier. In
absolute terms, the annual growth in the debt on
loans to non-financial organisations and house -
holds virtually reached the level registered at the
beginning of 2008.
The growth of the deposit base was a key
source of increased credit supply in the post-cri -
sis period. However , as a result of the continuing
2011 Q3 27
Bank of Russia press releases on monetary policy measures
in August-October 2011
August 2011
August 4 (extract from the press release)
The Bank of Russia External and Public Relations Department informs that the Bank of Russia Board
of Directors took a decision on August 4, 2011, to leave the refinancing rate and interest rates on Bank of
Russia operations unchanged.
The decision was made following an assessment of inflation risks and risks to sustainable economic
growth, including risks posed by the persisting uncertainty over external economic developments.
The annual inflation rate continued to decline in July and stood at 9.0% as compared with 9.4% in
June. As before, the dynamics demonstrated by the prices of certain foodstuffs made a major contribution
to the slowdown in the inflation rate. Favourable grain harvest forecasts for this year along with the prevail-
ing trends in world food markets suggest that the corresponding inflation risks are decreasing. The current
downward trend in inflation expectations may contribute to a slower inflation rate in the future.
Meanwhile, the continuing trend towards slower growth in household deposits and the growth in re-
tail trade outpacing the growth in real income suggest that households might demonstrate less propensity
to save, which may both contribute to improved business activity and be a source of additional inflationary
pressures.
The dynamics of certain macroeconomic indicators in June suggested that the economic situation had
somewhat improved but there remained risks to sustainable economic growth. The industrial output index
continued to grow and its annual growth rate accelerated for the first time since the beginning of the year.
The unemployment rate went down but that was largely due to seasonal factors. Fixed capital investments
continued to recover following a slump at the beginning of the year , but their annual growth rate slowed
down in June compared with May, suggesting that the trend was potentially unsteady. Low indicators of
economic agents’ sentiments also point to risks to sustainable growth.
Given the current internal and external macroeconomic trends and the impact of the monetary policy
implemented in recent months, the Bank of Russia regards the current level of interest rates in the money
market as acceptable in order to secure a balance between inflation risks and economic slowdown risks in
the months to come.
The next meeting of the Bank of Russia Board of Directors to consider monetary policy is scheduled
for September 2011.
August 26
The Bank of Russia External and Public Relations Department informs that the Bank of Russia Board of
Directors took a decision on August 26, 2011, to set the interest rate on gold-secured loans extended for
a term of up to 90 calendar days inclusive at 7% p. a.
In view of this, the Bank of Russia External and Public Relations Department informs that the Bank of
Russia is prepared for the start of operations to provide loans secured by gold.
The procedure for the Bank of Russia to provide loans secured by gold is stipulated by Bank of Russia
Regulation No. 362-P , dated November 30, 2010, ‘On the Procedure for the Bank of Russia to Provide
28 2011 Q3
Gold-Secured Loans to Credit Institutions’ (published in Bank of Russia Bulletin No. 22 of April 27, 2011)
and Bank of Russia Order No. OD-355, dated May 13, 2011, ‘On the Provision of Gold-Secured Loans by
the Bank of Russia to Credit Institutions’ (published in Bank of Russia Bulletin No. 29 of May 25, 2011).
Information on the procedure and the terms of operations by the Bank of Russia to provide gold-se-
cured loans to credit institutions is posted on the Bank of Russia’s website at: / dkp / stan-
dart_system / print. asp? file=refinan. htm (‘Refinancing (Crediting) of Credit Institutions as an Instrument
of the Bank of Russia’s Monetary Policy’ in the chapter ‘Loans Secured by Gold’ in the Monetary Policy
section).
September 2011
September 14 (extract from the press release)
The Bank of Russia External and Public Relations Department informs that the Bank of Russia Board
of Directors took a decision on September 14, 2011, to leave the refinancing rate unchanged, raise from
September 15, 2011 the fixed rates on Bank of Russia deposit operations by 0.25 percentage points and
lower by 0.25 percentage points interest rates on some of Bank of Russia liquidity provision operations.
The decision was made following an assessment of inflation risks and risks to sustainable economic
growth, including risks posed by the persisting uncertainty over external economic developments, also
taking into account the current trends in the money market and the existing factors influencing banking
liquidity. This decision to narrow the band of interest rates on some of Bank of Russia liquidity provision
and absorption operations is designed to help restrict interest rate volatility in the money market amid the
existing risks of ruble liquidity shortfalls in the banking sector.
The annual inflation rate continued to decrease and stood at 8.0% as of September 5 (compared with
8.2% in August and 9.0% in July). The prices of certain groups of foodstuffs continued to make a major
contribution to the slowdown in the inflation rate. The persisting favourable forecasts for this year’s harvest
of main agricultural crops, and also lower inflation expectations are the factors contributing to the reduc-
tion of the corresponding inflation risks. At the same time, the annual growth in the prices of paid services
and non-food goods continues to accelerate.
Certain economic indicators continued to demonstrate positive dynamics in July: the industrial pro -
duction index and fixed capital investment kept growing, following the trends, which emerged in the pre-
vious months. At the same time, the unemployment rate slightly increased, which could be attributed to
seasonal factors only partially. The relatively low indicators of economic agents’ sentiments point to risks
to sustainable growth.
The persisting trend towards slower growth in household deposits and the increase in consumer lend-
ing might demonstrate less propensity to save, which may both contribute to improved business activity
and be a source of additional inflationary pressures.
Given the current internal and external macroeconomic trends and the impact of the monetary policy
implemented in recent months, the Bank of Russia regards the current level of interest rates in the money
market as acceptable in order to secure a balance between inflation risks and economic slowdown risks in
the near future.
The next meeting of the Bank of Russia Board of Directors to consider monetary policy is scheduled
for the last ten days of October 2011.
September 26
The Bank of Russia External and Public Relations Department informs that considering the current
trends in the money market and the existing factors influencing banking sector liquidity, the Bank of Russia
took a decision to suspend holding auctions to place Bank of Russia bonds No. 4–21–21BR1–1.
Bank of Russia press releases on monetary policy measures
2011 Q3 29
October 2011
October 28 (extract from the press release)
The Bank of Russia External and Public Relations Department informs that the Bank of Russia Board
of Directors took a decision on October 28, 2011, to leave the refinancing rate and interest rates on Bank
of Russia operations unchanged.
The decision was made following an assessment of inflation risks and risks to sustainable economic
growth, including risks posed by the persisting uncertainty over external economic developments.
In the period since the latest meeting of the Bank of Russia Board of Directors on monetary policy, the
annual inflation rate continued to decrease and stood at 6.9% as of October 24, 2011 (compared with
7.2% in September and 8.2% in August). The prices of certain groups of foodstuffs continued to make a
major contribution to the slowdown in the inflation rate. However , there were signs of the waning effect
of this factor. The price decrease in September was also observed in the services sector. At the same time,
the annual rates of growth in non-food prices had not registered any slowdown in the past several months,
staying at a relatively high level. The Bank of Russia will continue monitoring the impact of various factors
on inflationary processes, including the possible effect of the ruble’s depreciation observed in the past few
months on the level of prices.
Major macroeconomic indicators changed both ways in September. The annual industrial production
index fell considerably as compared with August. At the same time, the annual rates of growth in fixed
capital investment increased again in September after their slowdown in the previous month. The unem-
ployment rate remained at a relatively low level, while the growth in household real income accelerated,
and these factors, along with the continued increase in consumer lending, contributed to the steady rise
in consumer demand. As a result, retail trade turnover continued to grow at an accelerated rate. The cur-
rent domestic demand dynamics may both contribute to improved business activity and be a source of
additional inflationary pressures.
In the interbank market, the banking sector’s demand for refinancing instruments was observed to
increase in recent months. The growth in liquidity volumes provided by the Bank of Russia will help restrict
the rise in market rates.
Given the current internal and external macroeconomic trends, the Bank of Russia regards the current
level of interest rates in the money market as acceptable in order to secure a balance between inflation
risks and economic slowdown risks in the near future.
The Bank of Russia took a decision to increase to 180 days the term of loans provided against the col-
lateral of gold and set from November 1, 2011, the interest rates on gold-secured loans with a maturity
from 91 to 180 days at 7.25% p. a.
The next meeting of the Bank of Russia Board of Directors to consider monetary policy is scheduled
for the last ten days of November 2011.
30 2011 Q3
Statistical Addendum
Table 1
Consumer prices by group of goods and services
(month on month. %)
Monthly
inflation
Core
inflation
Food price
growth
Food price
growth 1
Vegetable
and fruit price
growth
Non-food
price growth
Growth in non-
food prices,
excluding petrol
prices 2
Service price
growth
January 2.4 1.3 1.4 1.1 4.7 0.7 1.0 6.3
February 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.5 4.9 1.6 1.8 1.4
March 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.4 4.5 1.4 1.6 0.6
April 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 -0.1 1.0 1.1 0.3
May 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.3 4.1 0.7 0.8 0.3
June 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.1 3.9 0.8 0.3 0.5
July 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.2 3.2 0.6 0.2 0.8
August 0.0 0.5 -0.9 0.4 -11.0 0.6 0.4 0.4
September 0.0 0.5 -0.8 0.4 -11.5 0.7 0.6 0.1
October 0.0 0.3 -0.5 0.0 -6.2 0.6 0.7 -0.1
November 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.1
December 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 3.0 0.2 0.3 0.4
Full year (December on December) 8.8 8.3 6.1 6.9 -1.7 9.7 9.7 11.6
January 1.6 0.5 1.4 0.8 7.2 0.2 0.3 3.9
February 0.9 0.5 1.3 0.8 5.6 0.3 0.3 1.0
March 0.6 0.5 1.0 0.7 4.2 0.4 0.4 0.4
April 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.2
May 0.5 0.1 0.7 -0.1 7.2 0.4 0.3 0.4
June 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.0 4.6 0.2 0.2 0.4
July 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 -0.6 0.3 0.2 0.6
August 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 -1.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
September 0.8 1.1 1.6 1.8 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.0
October 0.5 0.8 0.7 1.0 -1.8 0.6 0.7 0.0
November 0.8 0.7 1.4 1.0 4.0 0.7 0.7 0.2
December 1.1 0.7 2.1 1.2 8.6 0.4 0.4 0.4
Full year (December on December) 8.8 6.6 12.9 9.4 45.6 5.0 4.9 8.1
January 2.4 1.1 2.6 1.6 11.2 0.9 0.6 4.1
February 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.0 2.7 0.3 0.5 0.8
March 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.4 0.5 0.6 0.3
April 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 -1.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
May 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.2 -1.6 0.8 0.4 0.7
June 0.2 0.3 -0.2 0.1 -3.2 0.4 0.3 0.7
July 0.0 0.4 -0.7 0.4 -9.2 0.3 0.3 0.6
August -0.2 0.4 -1.4 0.3 -16.0 0.5 0.4 0.3
September 0.0 0.5 -0.6 0.2 -9.8 0.7 0.7 -0.1
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Bank of Russia estimate.
Note. T ables 1 to 7 are based on Rosstat data and Bank of Russia calculations.
Statistical Addendum
2011 Q3 31
Table 2
Consumer prices by group of goods and services
(since start of year on accrual basis, %)
Monthly
inflation
Core
inflation
Food price
growth
Food price
growth 1
Vegetable
and fruit price
growth
Non-food
price growth
Growth in non-
food prices,
excluding petrol
prices 2
Service price
growth
January 2.4 1.3 1.4 1.1 4.7 0.7 1.0 6.3
February 4.1 2.9 3.3 2.6 9.8 2.3 2.8 7.8
March 5.4 4.3 5.0 4.0 14.7 3.8 4.5 8.5
April 6.2 5.2 5.8 4.8 14.6 4.8 5.7 8.7
May 6.8 5.7 6.5 5.1 19.3 5.5 6.5 9.1
June 7.4 6.0 7.0 5.2 24.0 6.3 6.9 9.6
July 8.1 6.3 7.6 5.4 28.0 7.0 7.1 10.5
August 8.1 6.8 6.6 5.8 14.0 7.6 7.6 10.9
September 8.1 7.3 5.8 6.3 0.8 8.3 8.2 11.0
October 8.1 7.6 5.2 6.3 -5.4 9.0 9.0 10.9
November 8.4 8.0 5.5 6.5 -4.5 9.4 9.4 11.1
December 8.8 8.3 6.1 6.9 -1.7 9.7 9.7 11.6
January 1.6 0.5 1.4 0.8 7.2 0.2 0.3 3.9
February 2.5 1.0 2.7 1.6 13.2 0.5 0.6 5.0
March 3.2 1.5 3.8 2.3 18.0 0.9 1.0 5.4
April 3.5 1.7 4.1 2.5 19.3 1.3 1.3 5.6
May 4.0 1.8 4.8 2.4 27.9 1.7 1.7 6.0
June 4.4 2.0 5.4 2.4 33.8 1.9 1.9 6.4
July 4.8 2.4 5.7 2.8 32.9 2.2 2.1 7.0
August 5.4 3.1 6.6 4.1 31.0 2.5 2.5 7.3
September 6.2 4.3 8.4 5.9 31.3 3.1 3.1 7.4
October 6.8 5.1 9.1 7.0 28.9 3.8 3.8 7.4
November 7.6 5.8 10.6 8.1 34.0 4.5 4.5 7.6
December 8.8 6.6 12.9 9.4 45.6 5.0 4.9 8.1
January 2.4 1.1 2.6 1.6 11.2 0.9 0.6 4.1
February 3.2 1.8 3.9 2.6 14.2 1.2 1.1 4.9
March 3.8 2.5 4.8 3.5 15.8 1.7 1.7 5.2
April 4.3 3.0 5.2 4.1 14.0 2.2 2.2 5.7
May 4.8 3.4 5.2 4.4 12.2 3.0 2.6 6.5
June 5.0 3.8 5.0 4.5 8.7 3.5 2.9 7.2
July 5.0 4.1 4.2 4.9 -1.3 3.8 3.2 7.9
August 4.7 4.6 2.8 5.2 -17.1 4.3 3.6 8.2
September 4.7 5.1 2.1 5.5 -25.2 5.0 4.3 8.1
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Bank of Russia estimate.
32 2011 Q3
Table 3
Consumer prices by group of goods and services
(month on corresponding month of previous year, %)
Monthly
inflation
Core
inflation 1
Food price
growth
Food price
growth 2
Vegetable
and fruit price
growth
Non-food
price growth
Growth in non-
food prices,
excluding petrol
prices 1
Service price
growth
January 13.4 13.9 15.9 17.3 4.1 8.1 8.9 16.9
February 13.9 14.6 16.1 17.6 3.9 9.2 10.2 17.0
March 14.0 14.9 15.8 17.5 2.5 9.9 11.2 17.0
April 13.2 14.4 14.1 16.3 -3.0 10.0 11.7 16.1
May 12.3 13.6 12.5 14.9 -5.1 9.9 11.9 15.3
June 11.9 12.9 11.9 13.7 -1.8 9.9 11.7 14.6
July 12.0 12.3 12.4 12.7 8.7 9.8 11.4 14.5
August 11.6 11.7 11.6 11.8 9.1 9.9 11.2 13.9
September 10.7 10.8 9.9 10.6 3.2 9.9 11.0 12.8
October 9.7 9.6 7.6 8.7 -2.8 9.6 10.6 12.7
November 9.1 8.8 6.6 7.6 -2.9 9.6 10.0 12.1
December 8.8 8.3 6.1 6.9 -1.7 9.7 9.7 11.6
January 8.0 7.5 6.1 6.6 0.7 9.1 9.0 9.1
February 7.2 6.3 5.5 5.8 1.4 7.7 7.4 8.7
March 6.5 5.4 4.8 5.1 1.1 6.6 6.1 8.4
April 6.0 4.8 4.4 4.5 2.4 5.9 5.2 8.4
May 6.0 4.4 4.4 4.1 5.4 5.7 4.7 8.4
June 5.8 4.3 4.5 4.0 6.1 5.1 4.6 8.4
July 5.5 4.4 4.2 4.2 2.1 4.8 4.6 8.2
August 6.1 4.7 6.1 5.1 13.1 4.5 4.5 8.0
September 7.0 5.3 8.7 6.5 28.0 4.4 4.6 8.0
October 7.5 5.8 10.0 7.6 33.9 4.4 4.5 8.1
November 8.1 6.2 11.2 8.5 38.0 4.7 4.8 8.1
December 8.8 6.6 12.9 9.4 45.6 5.0 4.9 8.1
January 9.6 7.2 14.2 10.2 51.1 5.6 5.2 8.2
February 9.5 7.4 14.2 10.5 46.9 5.6 5.4 7.9
March 9.5 7.7 14.1 10.8 42.9 5.8 5.6 7.9
April 9.6 8.0 14.1 11.2 39.1 5.9 5.8 8.2
May 9.6 8.3 13.4 11.6 27.7 6.3 5.9 8.6
June 9.4 8.4 12.5 11.7 18.3 6.6 5.9 8.8
July 9.0 8.4 11.3 11.7 8.1 6.6 6.0 8.9
August 8.2 8.1 8.8 10.7 -7.9 6.8 6.1 9.0
September 7.2 7.4 6.4 8.9 -17.1 6.8 6.1 8.8
1 Bank of Russia estimate.
2 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
Statistical Addendum
2011 Q3 33
Table 4
Inflation growth over period since start of year due to price changes
by group of goods and services (percentage points)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food
products
Paid
services
Vegetables and
fruit
Inflation over
period, %
Core
inflation
Non-core
inflation 2
January 0.4 0.3 1.6 0.2 2.4 1.0 1.4
February 0.9 0.9 2.0 0.4 4.1 2.4 1.7
March 1.4 1.4 2.1 0.5 5.4 3.5 2.0
April 1.6 1.8 2.2 0.5 6.2 4.2 2.0
May 1.8 2.1 2.3 0.7 6.8 4.6 2.2
June 1.8 2.4 2.4 0.9 7.4 4.8 2.6
July 1.9 2.6 2.6 1.0 8.1 5.1 3.0
August 2.0 2.9 2.7 0.5 8.1 5.5 2.6
September 2.1 3.1 2.8 0.0 8.1 5.9 2.1
October 2.1 3.4 2.7 -0.2 8.1 6.1 1.9
November 2.2 3.5 2.8 -0.2 8.4 6.4 1.9
December 2.4 3.6 2.9 -0.1 8.8 6.7 2.1
January 0.3 0.1 1.0 0.3 1.6 0.4 1.2
February 0.6 0.2 1.3 0.5 2.5 0.8 1.7
March 0.8 0.3 1.4 0.6 3.2 1.2 2.0
April 0.9 0.5 1.4 0.7 3.5 1.4 2.1
May 0.8 0.6 1.5 1.0 4.0 1.5 2.5
June 0.8 0.7 1.7 1.2 4.4 1.6 2.8
July 1.0 0.8 1.8 1.2 4.8 1.9 2.8
August 1.4 0.9 1.9 1.1 5.4 2.5 2.8
September 2.0 1.1 1.9 1.1 6.2 3.5 2.8
October 2.4 1.4 1.9 1.0 6.8 4.1 2.7
November 2.8 1.6 2.0 1.2 7.6 4.7 2.9
December 3.3 1.8 2.1 1.7 8.8 5.3 3.5
January 0.5 0.3 1.1 0.4 2.4 0.8 1.5
February 0.9 0.4 1.3 0.6 3.2 1.4 1.7
March 1.2 0.6 1.4 0.7 3.8 2.0 1.8
April 1.4 0.8 1.5 0.6 4.3 2.4 1.8
May 1.5 1.1 1.7 0.5 4.8 2.7 2.0
June 1.6 1.2 1.9 0.4 5.0 3.0 2.0
July 1.7 1.3 2.0 -0.1 5.0 3.3 1.7
August 1.8 1.5 2.1 -0.7 4.7 3.6 1.1
September 1.9 1.8 2.1 -1.1 4.7 4.1 0.6
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
34 2011 Q3
Table 5
Monthly inflation growth due to price changes
by group of goods and services (percentage points)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food
products
Paid
services
Vegetables
and fruit
Inflation over
period, %
Core
inflation
Non-core
inflation 2
January 0.4 0.3 1.6 0.2 2.4 1.0 1.4
February 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.7 1.3 0.3
March 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 1.3 1.1 0.2
April 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.0
May 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2
June 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.4
July 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.4
August 3 0.0
September 3 0.0
October 3 0.0
November 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0
December 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1
January 0.3 0.1 1.0 0.3 1.6 0.4 1.2
February 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.5
March 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.3
April 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1
May 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.4
June 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3
July 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.1
August 0.4 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0
September 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.9 -0.1
October 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.5 0.6 -0.1
November 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.3
December 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.6 0.5
January 0.5 0.3 1.1 0.4 2.4 0.8 1.5
February 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.2
March 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1
April 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0
May 0.1 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.5 0.3 0.2
June 0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0
July 3 0.0
August 3 -0.2
September 3 0.0
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
3 Owing to zero or negative inflation, estimates may vary.
Statistical Addendum
2011 Q3 35
Table 6
Contribution to inflation growth over period since start of year
by group of goods and services (%)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food products Paid services Vegetables and fruit Core inflation Non-core inflation 2
January 15.6 11.3 66.2 7.0 42.3 57.7
February 22.1 21.5 47.9 8.6 57.7 42.3
March 25.3 26.1 38.9 9.7 64.0 36.0
April 26.7 29.3 35.5 8.5 67.9 32.1
May 25.9 30.5 33.4 10.2 67.5 32.5
June 24.1 31.9 32.4 11.6 65.0 35.0
July 23.0 32.3 32.3 12.4 62.6 37.4
August 24.7 35.3 33.8 6.2 67.6 32.4
September 26.7 38.7 34.2 0.4 73.3 26.7
October 26.6 41.9 33.8 -2.4 76.3 23.7
November 26.7 42.2 33.0 -1.9 76.7 23.3
December 26.7 41.1 32.9 -0.7 76.4 23.6
January 17.3 4.7 61.6 16.3 25.6 74.4
February 22.2 7.3 51.4 19.1 31.6 68.4
March 25.2 10.4 43.9 20.6 37.4 62.6
April 25.0 13.2 41.7 20.2 39.8 60.2
May 20.9 15.3 38.5 25.3 37.2 62.8
June 19.0 15.8 37.5 27.7 37.2 62.8
July 20.5 16.6 38.0 24.9 40.4 59.6
August 26.4 17.3 35.4 20.9 47.1 52.9
September 32.9 18.3 30.6 18.2 55.5 44.5
October 35.9 20.5 28.2 15.5 60.5 39.5
November 36.7 21.6 25.7 16.1 61.5 38.5
December 37.0 20.6 23.7 18.8 60.3 39.7
January 23.1 13.7 45.7 17.6 35.4 64.6
February 28.0 13.4 39.8 18.7 44.8 55.2
March 31.4 15.8 35.5 17.3 52.0 48.0
April 33.3 18.2 34.8 13.7 56.8 43.2
May 31.5 22.5 35.2 10.7 57.3 42.7
June 31.0 24.5 37.3 7.3 59.8 40.2
July 33.6 26.7 40.8 -1.1 66.0 34.0
August 37.8 32.2 45.0 -15.1 76.8 23.2
September 39.9 37.7 44.9 -22.5 86.3 13.7
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
36 2011 Q3
Table 7
Contribution to monthly inflation growth
by group of goods and services (%)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food products Paid services Vegetables and fruit Core inflation Non-core inflation 2
January 15.6 11.3 66.2 7.0 42.3 57.7
February 31.2 35.9 22.0 10.9 79.5 20.5
March 35.2 40.0 11.7 13.1 83.0 17.0
April 37.5 53.9 9.3 -0.7 97.1 2.9
May 17.1 42.5 13.3 27.1 62.6 37.4
June 5.7 46.9 20.7 26.8 38.4 61.6
July 10.8 35.8 31.6 21.8 35.3 64.7
August 3
September 3
October 3
November 28.1 49.4 12.3 10.2 87.7 12.3
December 27.3 19.3 30.1 23.3 70.2 29.8
January 17.3 4.7 61.6 16.3 25.6 74.4
February 30.6 11.7 33.6 24.1 42.2 57.8
March 36.4 22.1 15.4 26.0 59.6 40.4
April 23.4 42.8 18.0 15.8 65.3 34.7
May -5.6 29.1 18.0 58.5 20.5 79.5
June 0.9 20.8 28.1 50.2 36.6 63.4
July 38.7 26.1 43.8 -8.5 79.6 20.4
August 75.8 22.8 13.2 -11.8 102.9 -2.9
September 72.6 25.0 1.4 1.0 107.1 -7.1
October 71.1 46.0 -0.8 -16.3 119.3 -19.3
November 42.4 30.1 6.3 21.2 68.8 31.2
December 38.9 14.1 10.7 36.3 52.4 47.6
January 23.1 13.7 45.7 17.6 35.4 64.6
February 42.7 12.7 22.4 22.2 72.9 27.1
March 48.1 27.7 14.0 10.3 87.5 12.5
April 48.8 38.8 29.1 -16.7 96.9 3.1
May 16.9 59.7 38.3 -14.9 61.7 38.3
June 19.7 64.0 79.1 -62.7 110.0 -10.0
July 3
August 3
September 3
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
3 Owing to zero or negative inflation, estimates may vary.
Statistical Addendum
2011 Q3 37
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Macroeconomic indicators
GDP
over period since start of year, billions of rubles
2009 8,306 17,528 27,967 38,786
2010 9,572 20,195 31,968 44,939
2011 11,410 24,167.1
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2009 90.8 … … 92.2
2010 103.5 104.3 103.9 104.0
2011 104.1 103.7 104.1
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2009 90.8 88.8 91.4 97.4
2010 103.5 105.0 103.1 104.5
2011 104.1 103.4 104.8
Industrial output index
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2009 84.5 86.4 90.4 101.8
2010 109.5 110.9 106.4 106.5
2011 105.9 104.8 105.1
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2009 84.5 85.5 87.1 90.7
2010 109.5 110.2 108.9 108.2
2011 105.9 105.3 105.2
Agricultural output
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2009 102.2 100.7 98.9 105.1
2010 100.5 98.6 79.2 96.2
2011 100.7 100.6 116.5
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2009 102.2 … … 101.4
2010 100.5 99.4 87.0 88.7
2011 100.7 100.7 115.9
Fixed capital investment
over period since start of year, billions of rubles
2009 1,224.3 2,946.4 5,007.4 7,976.0
2010 1,242.6 3,205.1 5,566.2 9,151.4
2011 1,353.0 3,598.0 6,355.5
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2009 82.0 79.1 82.3 90.7
2010 95.2 105.6 105.3 111.1
2011 99.2 105.0 107.7
Retail trade turnover
over period since start of year, billions of rubles
2009 3,327.2 6,836.5 10,521.3 14,584.7
2010 3,625.7 7,560.2 11,764.0 16,468.6
2011 4,173.2 8,738.6 13,611.0
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2009 100.5 94.8 91.2 94.3
2010 102.2 106.9 108.4 107.4
2011 105.0 105.8 107.6
Federal budget on accrual
basis, as of end of period
revenue
billions of rubles
2009 1,732.7 3,172.2 5,114.4 7,337.8
2010 1,954.9 3,997.9 6,008.6 8,305.4
2011 2,392.8 5,306.4 8,213.0 1
as % of GDP
2009 20.9 18.1 18.3 18.9
2010 20.4 19.8 18.8 18.5
2011 21.0 22.0 21.5 1
expenditure
billions of rubles
2009 1,762.4 3,893.8 6,441.7 9,660.1
2010 2,199.5 4,386.2 6,701.2 10,117.4
2011 2,214.7 4,602.9 7,082.1 1
as % of GDP
2009 21.2 22.2 23.0 24.9
2010 23.0 21.7 21.0 22.5
2011 19.4 19.0 18.5 1
surplus(+)/
deficit(-)
billions of rubles
2009 -29.7 -721.7 -1,327.2 -2,322.3
2010 -244.6 -388.3 -692.6 -1,812.0
2011 178.0 703.5 1,130.9 1
as % of GDP
2009 -0.4 -4.1 -4.7 -6.0
2010 -2.6 -1.9 -2.2 -4.0
2011 1.6 2.9 3.0 1
General government budget
on accrual basis, as of end
of period
revenue
billions of rubles
2009 3,033.5 6,042.7 9,555.0 13,599.7
2010 3,463.1 7,603.5 11,419.4 16,031.9
2011 4,392.5 9,885.1 15,170.8 1
as % of GDP
2009 36.5 34.5 34.2 35.1
2010 36.2 37.6 35.7 35.7
2011 38.5 40.9 39.7 1
expenditure
billions of rubles
2009 2,807.1 6,619.7 10,503.9 16,048.3
2010 3,220.7 7,331.2 11,309.8 17,616.6
2011 3,575.4 8,138.7 12,745.4 1
as % of GDP
2009 33.8 37.8 37.6 41.4
2010 33.6 36.3 35.4 39.2
2011 31.3 33.7 33.4 1
surplus(+)/
deficit(-)
billions of rubles
2009 226.4 -577.0 -948.9 -2,448.6
2010 242.4 272.3 109.7 -1,584.6
2011 817.0 1,746.4 2,425.4 1
as % of GDP
2009 2.7 -3.3 -3.4 -6.3
2010 2.5 1.3 0.3 -3.5
2011 7.2 7.2 6.3 1
Table 8
Russia’s key macroeconomic and financial indicators
Note. T able 8 is based on data compiled by the Bank of Russia, the Federal State Statistics Service, the Ministry of Finance of the
Russian Federation and the Federal T reasury.
38 2011 Q3
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Socio-economic indicators
Nominal imputed average
monthly per employee wage
rubles
2009 17,441 18,419 18,673 20,670
2010 19,485 20,809 21,031 23,491
2011 21,354 23,154 23,406
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2009 112.8 108.0 105.7 108.4
2010 110.5 112.4 111.6 112.7
2011 111.2 112.5 112.5
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2009 112.8 … … 107.8
2010 110.5 111.5 111.5 112.4
2011 111.2 111.8 112.0
Real imputed average monthly per employee wage, as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2009 99.2 96.1 94.8 99.3
2010 103.1 106.1 105.1 104.2
2011 101.6 102.7 104.1
Household money income (per capita monthly average), rubles
2009 14,009.3 16,921.1 16,656.8 19,761.3
2010 15,996.3 18,582.1 18,493.9 21,997.1
2011 17,540.8 20,032.3 20,416.5
Household real disposable
money income
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2009 100.7 102.9 96.3 108.0
2010 107.3 103.7 104.5 102.1
2011 99.8 98.0 101.7
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2009 100.7 … … 102.0
2010 107.3 105.3 105.0 104.2
2011 99.8 98.8 99.8
Household spending, as % of
income
purchase of goods and payment for services
2009 76.6 67.1 71.2 65.0
2010 73.3 68.3 72.9 67.3
2011 79.0 73.5 76.6
obligatory payments and contributions
2009 11.2 10.4 10.9 9.9
2010 9.5 9.9 10.2 10.3
2011 9.7 10.0 10.5
growth in savings
2009 8.3 16.6 12.3 17.5
2010 15.7 15.2 11.6 14.8
2011 10.2 10.9 6.3
purchase of foreign currency
2009 10.2 3.5 6.0 3.5
2010 3.2 3.2 4.2 4.0
2011 3.9 4.0 4.9
cash on hand
2009 -6.3 2.4 -0.4 4.1
2010 -1.7 3.4 1.1 3.6
2011 -2.8 1.6 1.7
Average imputed pension, total, rubles
2009 4,614 5,151 5,330 5,670
2010 7,126 7,580 7,596 7,604
2011 8,011 8,254 8,263
Real imputed pension
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2009 106.1 113.3 109.1 114.2
2010 144.1 138.9 134.3 124.1
2011 102.7 99.4 100.6
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2009 106.1 … … 110.7
2010 144.1 141.3 138.8 134.8
2011 102.7 101.0 100.9
Total number of unemployed
(calculated by ILO
methodology)
million
2009 6.8 6.5 6.0 6.1
2010 6.6 5.6 5.2 5.2
2011 5.6 5.0 4.8
as % of economically active population
2009 9.1 8.6 7.8 8.0
2010 8.8 7.4 6.8 6.9
2011 7.5 6.6 6.2
Table 8 (continued)
Statistical Addendum
2011 Q3 39
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Foreign economic activities
Price of Urals crude, over period since start of
year
$/barrel
2009 43.2 50.5 56.3 60.7
2010 75.0 75.8 75.8 78.2
2011 102.6 108.3 109.7
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2009 46.1 48.0 52.3 64.6
2010 173.7 150.1 134.7 128.9
2011 136.8 142.7 144.7
Exports of goods, over period since start of year
$ billion
2009 57.3 125.4 207.8 303.4
2010 92.2 189.9 287.5 400.4
2011 114.2 249.4 380.1 2
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2009 52.0 52.9 55.6 64.3
2010 161.1 151.5 138.4 132.0
2011 123.8 131.3 132.2 2
Imports of goods, over period since start of year
$ billion
2009 38.5 82.4 131.5 191.8
2010 45.7 103.9 172.3 248.7
2011 64.9 147.2 232.3 2
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2009 63.9 60.7 60.1 65.7
2010 118.8 126.0 131.1 129.7
2011 141.9 141.7 134.9 2
Current account balance (over period since start of year), $ billion
2009 9.7 17.6 32.7 48.6
2010 33.6 52.1 57.6 70.3
2011 32.5 56.3 73.6 2
Private sector net capital outflow (inflow) (over period since start of year), $ billion
2009 -35.0 -31.4 -64.9 -56.1
2010 -15.0 -11.5 -14.3 -33.6
2011 -21.4 -30.6 -49.4 2
Foreign investment in Russia’s non-financial sector
(Rosstat data), over period since start of year
$ billion
2009 12.0 32.2 54.7 81.9
2010 13.1 30.4 47.5 114.7
2011 44.3 87.7
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2009 69.7 69.1 72.2 79.0
2010 109.3 94.5 86.8 140.1
2011 by 3.4 times by 2.9 times
of which:
direct
$ billion
2009 3.2 6.1 10.0 15.9
2010 2.6 5.4 8.2 13.8
2011 3.9 7.0
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2009 57.0 55.0 51.9 58.9
2010 82.4 89.0 82.2 86.8
2011 148.3 129.8
portfolio
$ billion
2009 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.9
2010 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.1
2011 0.1 0.2
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2009 93.5 74.9 78.6 62.3
2010 by 2.5 times 81.1 85.0 121.9
2011 41.8 34.5
other
$ billion
2009 8.7 25.2 43.7 65.1
2010 10.2 24.3 38.4 99.9
2011 40.3 80.4
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2009 75.6 73.5 79.1 86.5
2010 117.1 96.2 87.8 153.3
2011 by 3.9 times by 3.3 times
Russia's international reserves (as of end of period), $ billion
2009 383.8 412.5 413.4 439.5
2010 447.4 461.2 490.1 479.4
2011 502.5 524.5 516.8
Real ruble exchange rate index (last month of
quarter), growth as % of December of previous
year3
rubles per US dollar
2009 -15.4 -5.0 -3.9 -0.4
2010 3.6 -0.7 2.0 4.0
2011 10.5 12.4 2.4
rubles per euro
2009 -12.0 -7.0 -9.0 -6.5
2010 11.7 18.6 14.5 14.5
2011 5.2 4.6 -0.9
effective rate
2009 -10.0 -4.2 -5.6 -3.9
2010 7.4 9.7 6.8 6.9
2011 6.9 8.4 1.0
Table 8 (continued)
40 2011 Q3
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Financial market indicators (including Sberbank interest rates)
Average for period
Overnight interbank credit
rate, % p.a.
in rubles
2009 11.6 7.7 7.1 5.5
2010 4.2 3.1 2.6 2.9
2011 2.8 3.6 4.1
in US dollars
2009 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
2010 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
2011 0.2 0.2 0.2
OFZ yields, % p.a. 4
2009 10.5 10.3 10.6 9.1
2010 7.9 7.4 7.3 7.4
2011 7.5 7.5 7.6
Interest rate on household
time deposits, % p.a.
up to 1 year in rubles
2009 10.0 10.8 10.7 10.2
2010 8.5 7.1 6.0 5.6
2011 5.3 5.1 5.1
over 1 year in rubles
2009 10.0 10.3 9.3 9.2
2010 7.7 6.2 5.3 4.8
2011 5.6 5.6 6.0
up to 1 year in US dollars
2009 6.0 5.3 5.5 5.2
2010 4.3 3.7 3.6 3.7
2011 3.5 3.1 3.1
over 1 year in US dollars
2009 6.5 6.1 5.7 5.5
2010 4.9 4.8 4.4 4.7
2011 4.5 4.6 4.2
Interest rate on loans to non-
financial organisations, % p.a.
up to 1 year in rubles
2009 16.6 15.8 14.9 13.9
2010 12.8 11.4 10.0 9.1
2011 8.7 8.3 8.0
over 1 year in rubles
2009 15.1 16.2 15.8 14.7
2010 13.9 12.3 11.4 10.5
2011 10.6 10.5 10.3
up to 1 year in US dollars
2009 10.7 10.1 10.0 9.3
2010 8.3 7.5 6.9 6.1
2011 6.2 4.4 4.7
over 1 year in US dollars
2009 12.7 11.6 10.7 9.0
2010 10.3 8.8 7.4 8.0
2011 7.3 7.3 7.2
Interest rate on ruble-denominated promissory notes discounted by banks, % p.a. 2009 15.7 14.3 14.0 11.8
Interest rate on ruble-denominated promissory notes issued by non-financial organisations and discounted
by credit institutions, % p.a. 5
2010 14.1 11.6 10.8 10.2
2011 8.4 10.0 8.9
Interest rate on ruble-denominated promissory notes issued by credit institutions and discounted by cred-
it institutions, % p.a. 5
2010 9.3 7.8 7.4 7.5
2011 7.4 7.5 8.4
MICEX rate in «tomorrow» trades, ruble/US dollar
2009 34.4761 32.2032 31.3160 29.4737
2010 29.8318 30.2891 30.6072 30.7248
2011 29.1281 27.9951 29.1545
As of end of quarter
RTS index, points
2009 689.63 987.02 1,254.52 1,444.61
2010 1,572.48 1,339.35 1,507.66 1,770.28
2011 2,044.20 1,906.71 1,341.09
Refinancing rate, % p.a.
2009 13.00 11.50 10.00 8.75
2010 8.25 7.75 7.75 7.75
2011 8.00 8.25 8.25
Table 8 (continued)
Statistical Addendum
2011 Q3 41
Table 8 (end)
Year 1.01 1.04 1.07 1.10
Monetary indicators
M0, billions of rubles
2009 3,794.8 3,278.3 3,522.5 3,485.6
2010 4,038.1 3,986.1 4,367.7 4,524.5
2011 5,062.7 4,918.2 5,192.2 5,420.4
M2, billions of rubles
2009 12,975.9 11,581.6 12,650.5 13,101.9
2010 15,267.6 15,639.4 16,900.9 17,690.2
2011 20,011.9 19,819.0 20,745.3 21,497.4
Broad money, billions of rubles
2009 16,276.7 15,810.4 16,579.8 17,004.5
2010 19,095.8 19,309.7 20,557.1 21,318.6
2011 23,791.2 23,641.1 24,455.0 25,680.3
Net foreign assets, billions of rubles
2009 12,197.9 12,884.3 13,049.9 13,238.9
2010 13,942.7 13,816.0 14,814.0 15,119.3
2011 15,041.2 15,025.3 15,599.9 17,515.8
Domestic claims, billions of rubles
2009 10,078.2 9,994.9 10,864.9 11,539.1
2010 13,241.8 13,460.4 14,097.3 15,003.0
2011 17,468.2 17,005.1 17,234.7 18,635.9
Broad monetary base, billions of rubles
2009 5,578.7 4,298.8 4,967.6 4,803.7
2010 6,467.3 6,363.9 7,195.0 7,126.0
2011 8,190.3 7,514.2 7,410.3 7,407.9
Balances of correspondent accounts, billions of rubles
2009 1,027.6 431.7 471.4 545.4
2010 900.3 579.5 603.6 590.0
2011 994.7 597.2 786.5 781.6
Monetisation of the economy (by M2 aggregate), %
2009 32.1 31.9 32.2 32.5
2010 32.8 33.6 35.0 36.5
2011 37.5 38.2 38.5 38.4,1
Money multiplier
by broad monetary base
2009 2.33 2.69 2.55 2.73
2010 2.36 2.46 2.35 2.48
2011 2.44 2.64 2.80 2.90
change since start of year, %
2009 -3.4,6 15.8 9.5 17.3
2010 1.5,6 4.1 -0.5 5.2
2011 3.5,6 7.9 14.6 18.8
Foreign exchange rates
rubles per US dollar
2009 29.39 33.90 31.04 30.01
2010 30.19 29.50 31.26 30.51
2011 30.35 28.52 27.87 32.11
rubles per euro
2009 41.43 44.89 43.85 43.89
2010 43.46 39.57 38.21 41.44
2011 40.49 40.39 40.42 43.42
1 Preliminary data.
2 Estimate.
3 (+) signifies appreciation of the ruble, (-) signifies depreciation of the ruble.
4 Effective OFZ market portfolio indicator.
5 Owing to the coming into force of Bank of Russia Ordinance No. 2332-U, dated November 12, 2009, the set of indicators used to characterise credit institutions’ interest rate policy in
the promissory note market changed from January 2010. Specifically, the single yield indicator for the promissory notes discounted by banks has been replaced by two indicators: the
yield indicator for promissory notes issued by credit institutions and the yield indicator for promissory notes issued by non-financial organisations. These indicators are calculated only for
operations with promissory notes denominated in Russian rubles.
6 Relative to beginning of previous year.
42 2011 Q3
Table 9
Bank of Russia interest rates1 in 2011
Purpose Type of instrument Instrument Period
Interest rate, % p.a.
From
1.01.11 to
27.02.11
From
28.02.11 to
2.05.11
From
3.05.11 to
30.05.11
From
31.05.11 to
14.09.11
From
15.09.11
Providing liquidity
Standing facilities
(fixed rates)
Overnight loans 2 1 day 7.75 8.00 8.25 8.25 8.25
Currency swap operations 3 1 day 7.75 8.00 8.25 8.25 8.25
Repo, Lombard loans 1 day 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.50
Lombard loans
7 days 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.50
30 days4 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.50
Repo
7 days 5 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.50
12 months 5 7.50 7.75 8.00 8.00 7.75
Loans secured by gold6
Up to 90 days 7.00 6.75
From 91 to 180 days 7.25
Loans secured by non-market
assets or guarantees7
Up to 90 days 6.75 7.00 7.25 7.25 7.00
From 91 to 180 days8 7.25 7.50 7.75 7.75 7.50
From 181 to 365 days5 7.75 8.00 8.25 8.25 8.25
Open market operations
(minimum interest rates)
Repo auctions 1 day 5.00 5.25 5.50 5.50 5.25
Repo auctions, Lombard loan
auctions
7 days 5.00 5.25 5.50 5.50 5.25
3 months 6.50 6.75 7.00 7.00 6.75
6 months5 7.00 7.25 7.50 7.50 7.25
12 months5 7.50 7.75 8.00 8.00 7.75
Absorbing liquidity
Standing facilities
(fixed rates) Deposit operations
demand, 1 day 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75
7 days 3.00 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75
Open market operations
(maximum interest rates) Deposit auctions
1 month 5.00 5.00 5.25 5.50 5.50
3 months5 6.00 6.00 6.25 6.50 6.50
Memo item:
Refinancing rate: 7.75 8.00 8.25 8.25 8.25
1 Interest rates set by the Bank of Russia Board of Directors.
2 Provided pursuant to Bank of Russia Regulations No. 236-P, dated August 4, 2003, No. 312-P, dated November 12, 2007, and No. 362-P, dated November 30, 2010.
3 Interest rate to determine the minimum swap difference.
4 The issue of loans was suspended from February 10, 2011.
5 Operations were not held in 2011; a decision was earlier taken on their suspension.
6 The interest rate on loans with a term of up to 90 days was set at 7% p.a. from August 29, 2011, and the interest rate on loans for a term of 91 to 180 days was set at 7.25% p.a. from
November 1, 2011.
7 The provision of loans secured by guarantees was suspended from March 1, 2011, to September 30, 2011.
8 The provision of loans was suspended from February 10, 2011, to October 31, 2011.
Statistical Addendum
2011 Q3 43
Table 11
Credit institutions’ required reserve ratios
(from November 1, 2009, up to present, %)
Required reserve ratio for
bank obligations to non-
resident legal entities in
Russian currency
Required reserve ratio for
bank obligations to non-
resident legal entities in
foreign currency
Required reserve ratio for
obligations to individuals in
Russian currency
Required reserve ratio for
obligations to individuals in
foreign currency
Required reserve ratio for
other bank obligations in
Russian currency
Required reserve ratio for
other bank obligations in
foreign currency
November 1, 2009 —
January 31, 2011 2,5
February 1, 2011 —
February 28, 2011 3,5 3,0 3,0
March 1, 2011 —
March 31, 2011 4,5 3,5 3,5
April 1, 2011 — 5,5 4,0 4,0
Table 10
Credit institutions’ required reserve ratios
(from July 1, 2007, to October 31, 2009, %)
Required reserve ratio for bank obligations to non-
resident banks in Russian
and foreign currency
Required reserve ratio for obligations to individuals
in Russian currency
Required reserve ratio for other bank obligations
in Russian and foreign currency
July 1, 2007 —
October 10, 2007 4.5 4.0 4.5
October 11, 2007 —
January 14, 2008 3.5 3.0 3.5
January 15, 2008 —
February 29, 2008 4.5 4.0 4.5
March 1, 2008 —
June 30, 2008 5.5 4.5 5.0
July 1, 2008 —
August 31, 2008 7.0 5.0 5.5
September 1, 2008 —
September 17, 2008 8.5 5.5 6.0
September 18, 2008 —
October 14, 2008 4.5 1.5 2.0
October 15, 2008 —
April 30, 2009 0.5 0.5 0.5
May 1, 2009 —
May 31, 2009 1.0 1.0 1.0
June 1, 2009 —
June 30, 2009 1.5 1.5 1.5
July 1, 2009 —
July 31, 2009 2.0 2.0 2.0
August 1, 2009 —
October 31, 2009 2.5 2.5 2.5
© The Central Bank of the Russian Federation, 2011
Research and Information Department