CBR Quarterly Inflation Review - Q3 2008
Central bank: cbr | Type: quarterly_review | Date: 2008-09-30

THE CENTRAL BANK
OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
(BANK OF RUSSIA)
Quarterly
Inflation
Review
2008 Q3
Research and Information Department
The electronic version of Quarterly Inflation Review is available on the Bank of Russia's website :
 .ru/publ/.
The Quarterly Inflation Review is currently issued by the Bank of Russia Research and Information
Department as a document primarily aimed at analysing the latest consumer price trends. Inflation
surveys published in countries using inflation targeting (inflation forecasts) make projected inflation
estimates to study potential deviations from the target, analyse their causes and determine the central
bank actions to bring inflation back to the target. Since the end of 2006, the Bank of Russia, assisted
by the IMF , has been developing an analysis and forecast system similar to those used by the countries
implementing inflation targeting. As analysis and forecast methods will improve, quarterly inflation
reviews will be enlarged and include new sections.
Contents
Introduction..................................................................................................................3
Inflation.Dynamics.........................................................................................................4
Consumer prices ....................................................................................................................... 4
Housing prices .......................................................................................................................... 6
Producer prices ......................................................................................................................... 7
Foreign trade ............................................................................................................................ 8
Demand ................................................................................................................................. 12
Supply .................................................................................................................................... 14
Labour market ......................................................................................................................... 15
Monetary.Conditions...................................................................................................16
Exchange rate ......................................................................................................................... 16
Interest rates ........................................................................................................................... 18
Asset prices ............................................................................................................................ 22
Monetary aggregates ............................................................................................................... 25
Credit aggregates .................................................................................................................... 27
Statistical.Addendum..................................................................................................30
2008 Q3 3
Introduction
Since last July, the Russian economy has reg-
istered signs of a slowdown in inflation, especially
on the food market. This is a result of the reduc -
tion or significant slowing of world prices of ma-
jor food and energy products, the corresponding
fall in Russian agricultural producer prices, which
began in May, a good grain harvest in this coun -
try and the tightening of monetary conditions. In
July-October, inflation slowed to 2.6% as against
3.4% in the same period last year. However,
nine-month consumer price inflation this year
was higher than last year, just as producer price
growth rates in industry and construction and
freight service prices.
In the third quarter of the year, the Bank
of Russia continued to tighten monetary condi -
tions for the economy because of high rates of
growth in consumer prices registered since the
end of 2007. To contain inflation and money sup-
ply growth, it raised interest rates (in July for the
fourth time in 2008) and required reserve ratios
(on July 1 and September 1).
In August and September, the world finan -
cial crisis created instability on the Russian finan-
cial market and increased uncertainty about pros-
pects for further economic growth and inflation-
ary expectations. Problems in some banks caused
the decline in confidence in the banking system.
All these developments made people less inclined
to save and as a result, consumption grew, in -
creasing inflationary pressure.
Economic agents’ demand for foreign cur -
rency rose sharply due to the world financial cri -
sis. As growth in its flow to the current account
slowed down, in August and September the ru -
ble depreciated against the dollar. Even though
in September the nominal effective rate of the
ruble slowed just a little more than in the previ -
ous months, the risk of the ruble devaluation in
the short term increased and this may reduce the
inflation decline.
Slower growth in export revenues and credit
squeeze led to the scaling down of investor activ-
ity. In the short term, the slowing of investment
growth and the fall in world energy prices may
reduce the inflationary pressure, but in the me -
dium term, it may increase as supply will decline
due to the slowing of growth in investments.
The deepening of the world financial crisis
and the exacerbation of its consequences for the
domestic economy compelled the Bank of Russia
to readjust its monetary policy. To prevent insta -
bility in the banking sector and payment system,
it shifted emphasis to measures aimed at settling
the liquidity problems, giving credit institutions
wider opportunities to raise funds and lowering
required reserve ratios. In September, the Bank of
Russia cut interest rates on some of its operations
aimed at providing liquidity to banks. In addition,
it took action to keep the interbank market alive
and enable enterprises to service and repay their
foreign loans.
The Bank of Russia interest rate band re -
mained unchanged in the third quarter, but in
October it narrowed as a result of the raising of
deposit interest rates, which was necessary to
stem capital outflow.
Although banks received a considerable
amount of liquidity, the money market interest
rates rose as a result of higher uncertainty and in-
flationary expectations and decline in confidence
among market participants.
As the cost of domestic funds rose amid
the scarcity of funds on foreign markets, banks
raised their customer credit rates, while increased
competition in the banking sector and accelerat -
ed inflation pushed deposit rates up. As a result,
growth in bank lending to the economy slackened
and this may eventually lead to the retardation of
economic growth.
At the same time, the tightening of mone -
tary conditions and slower economic growth may
somewhat reduce the inflationary pressure in the
short term.
4 2008 Q3
Inflation Dynamics
Consumer prices
Rosstat data show that in January-Septem -
ber 2008 inflation accelerated to 10.6% as against
7.5% in the same period last year. In September,
price growth increased to 15.0%, as compared
with the same month a year earlier, and in Jan -
uary-September it stood at 14.2%, as compared
with the same period in 2007.
Core inflation stood at 10.1% in January-
September 2008 as against 6.7% in the same pe-
riod of 2007 and in September it is estimated at
14.5%, as compared with the same month of the
previous year.
In January-September 2008, growth in the
prices of goods and services included in the cal -
culation of core consumer price index accounted
for an estimated 8.0 percentage points, or 75.7%
of the inflation rate as against 5.3 percentage
points, or 69.9%, in the same period of 2007.
The acceleration of core inflation was largely a
result of higher growth in food prices, excluding
vegetable and fruit prices, which began in the lat-
ter half of 2007.
Food prices, excluding vegetable and
fruit prices, gained 12.9% in January-September
2008 as against 8.1% in the same period last year.
Estimates show that a rise in the prices of these
products accounted for 4.5 percentage points, or
43.0%, of overall consumer price growth.
In January-September 2007, growth in food
prices, net of vegetable and fruit prices, account-
ed for 3.0 percentage points, or 39.3%, of over -
all consumer price growth.
Consumer price inflation (%)
Growth (September 2008
on December 2007)
Growth (September 2007
on December 2006)
Prices of goods and services, total: 10.6 7.5 Acceleration of growth by 3.1 percentage points
of which:
– food prices 12.1 8.1 Acceleration of growth by 4.0 percentage points
– food prices, excluding vegetable and fruit prices 12.9 8.1 Acceleration of growth by 4.8 percentage points
– non-food prices 6.5 4.0 Acceleration of growth by 2.5 percentage points
– prices of paid services provided to households 14.1 11.6 Acceleration of growth by 2.5 percentage points
Prices of goods and services included in core inflation calculation 10.1 6.7 Acceleration of growth by 3.4 percentage points
Source: Rosstat.
Inflation Dynamics
2008 Q3 5
Prices of bread and bakery products went
up 24.5% in nine months of the year as against
20.0% in the same period last year, pasta prod -
ucts were up 31.3% as against 13.8% in 2007,
meat and poultry prices gained 15.6% as against
5.4% and the price of sunflower oil rose 27.9%
as against 17.2%. It should be noted, however,
that inflation growth is slowing down on the food
market. A bumper grain harvest, a fall in agricul -
tural producer prices registered since May, and
the reduction or slowing of growth in world food
prices led to lower domestic food price growth,
net of vegetable and fruit prices, to 3.8% in the
third quarter of this year as against 5.2% in the
same period last year. As of October 14, 2008,
all categories of farms (state and private farms
and individual producers) reported an increase of
27.3% in the output of grain in initially recorded
weight, as compared with the same period of the
previous year. Overall agricultural producer price
growth slowed to 1.6% in January-September
2008 as against 9.3% in the same period last
year.
After a sharp rise in prices, world grain mar-
kets in various periods of this year registered
a price downturn: wheat prices began to fall
in March and April, rice prices in May, maize in
July and barley in August. As a result, the price
of American wheat declined 19.8% last Septem -
ber as compared with December 2007, Canadian
wheat was down 21.5% and Canadian barley
slipped 4.7% (in September 2007, the price of
these grain crops rose 59.8%, 51.0% and 22.3%
respectively). In September 2008, the price of
American maize was up 29.7% and Thai rice
gained 89.6% as compared with December 2007
(in September 2007, these prices went up 2.3%
and 6.6% respectively).
After a price fall last year, the world’s meat
markets in 2008 saw beef prices start growing
again: beef prices rose 35.4% in September as
compared with December 2007 (in September
2007, it fell 2.5%). After a slight price fall in the
fourth quarter of 2007, pork prices kept on rising
this year and in January-September 2008 it was
up 33.2% as against 4.3% in the same period last
year. Poultry prices continued to increase: Janu -
ary-September 2008 growth stood at 14.4% as
against 17.7% in January-September 2007.
The tendency towards growth in vegetable
oil and animal fat prices has reversed this year.
In July, sunflower oil and butter prices started to
fall. Sunflower oil prices declined 19.9% in Sep -
tember 2008 as compared with December 2007
(in September 2007, they rose 75.2%), whereas
butter prices last September were 26.3% higher
than in December 2007 (in September 2007, they
were 62.7% higher).
Fruit and vegetable prices rose 5.3% in
January-September 2008, a decrease of 2.8 per-
centage points on the same period last year. As
a result of growth in fruit and vegetable prices,
the general rate of inflation accelerated by an
estimated 0.2 percentage points (1.9% of overall
consumer price growth). This compares with 0.3
percentage points and 4.1% in the same period
Food price inflation (%)
Growth (September 2008
on December 2007)
Growth (September 2007
on December 2006)
Food products 12.1 8.1 Acceleration of growth by 4.0 percentage points
Bread and bakery products 24.5 20.0 Acceleration of growth by 4.5 percentage points
Cereals and legumes 27.5 15.9 Acceleration of growth by 11.6 percentage points
Pasta 31.3 13.8 Acceleration of growth by 17.5 percentage points
Meat and poultry 15.6 5.4 Acceleration of growth by 10.2 percentage points
Fish and seafood 7.5 5.9 Acceleration of growth by 1.6 percentage points
Milk and dairy products 7.8 12.0 Slowing of growth by 4.2 percentage points
Butter 7.0 17.1 Slowing of growth by 10.1 percentage points
Sunflower oil 27.9 17.2 Acceleration of growth by 10.7 percentage points
Granulated sugar 12.1 0.2 Acceleration of growth by 11.9 percentage points
Vegetables and fruit 5.3 8.1 Slowing of growth by 2.8 percentage points
Alcoholic beverages 8.1 5.2 Acceleration of growth by 2.9 percentage points
Source: Rosstat.
6 2008 Q3
last year. Fruit and vegetable price growth in Jan-
uary-September 2008 was smaller than the aver-
age of the previous three years.
Food prices gained 12.1% in January-Sep -
tember 2008 as against 8.1% in the same period
last year.
Growth in non-food prices accelerated
from 4.0% in January-September 2007 to 6.5%
in January-September 2008. It accounted for an
estimated 2.3 percentage points, or 22.0%, of
overall inflation. This compares with an estimated
1.4 percentage points, or 18.7%, in January-Sep -
tember 2007. The most significant growth was
registered in petrol prices (18.6% as against 2.3%
in January-September 2007), detergents (12.0%
as against 5.3%) and tobacco products (11.9% as
against 5.7%). The fall in world oil prices in Sep -
tember caused petrol prices to drop by 1.5%.
Paid service prices rose 14.1% in January-
September 2008 as against 11.6% in the same pe-
riod of 2007. Growth in the prices of services pro-
vided to households accounted for an estimated
3.5 percentage points, or 33.1%, of overall con -
sumer price growth. This compares with 2.9 per -
centage points, or 37.9%, in January-September
2007.
Administered prices of paid services rose by
an estimated 13.4%, an increase of 1.6 percent -
age points on growth in the same period last
year. Housing and utility prices went up 15.5%
as against 13.3% in January-September 2007 and
passenger transport fares grew 21.2% as against
10.6% in the previous year.
Paid service price growth in January-Septem-
ber 2008 exceeded overall growth in the prices
of goods by 4.7 percentage points (in the same
period last year, the excess was 5.5 percentage
points).
According to Rosstat data, consumer price
growth in January-September 2008 was faster
than in the same period last year in all federal
districts of Russia.
Estimates show that the differences be -
tween the Russian regions and territories in terms
of the cost of a fixed set of goods and services
used by the Federal State Statistics Service for in-
terregional comparison of the purchasing power
of the population narrowed in January-Septem -
ber 2008. The regional difference ratio 1 in that
period decreased from 42.4% to 40.2% in the
same period last year.
There was a relatively narrow gap between
the regions in terms of the rates of food price
growth, net of fruit and vegetable prices, in
January-September 2008: it ranged from 11.5%
to 16.1%. The rates of non-food price growth in
that period were almost twice as low. According-
ly, non-food price growth rates varied by region
from 6.0% to 7.9%. The gap between the re -
gions in terms of rates of growth in fruit and veg-
etable prices was wide. In the Far Eastern Federal
District, for example, fruit and vegetable prices
grew 13.5% in January-September, whereas in
the Southern Federal District they fell 1.0%.
All federal districts in that period saw paid
service prices increase as compared with the same
period last year.
Housing prices
Housing prices rose 10.9% on the primary
market and 16.6% on the secondary market in
January-September 2008. As compared with the
same period last year, price growth on the prima-
ry housing market slowed down, whereas on the
1 The regional difference ratio is calculated by the Bank of
Russia as the difference between the cost of a fixed set of
goods and services in the most expensive and cheapest re 
gions relative to the national value of the set.
Inflation Dynamics
2008 Q3 7
secondary market it accelerated by 1.7 percent -
age points.
Growth in housing construction slowed
down significantly in January-September 2008.
While in the same period of 2007 year-on-year
growth in housing construction stood at 30.9%,
this year it was down to 3.9%. This along with
lower prices on the primary market may indicate
demand saturation in this segment of the real es-
tate market. It should be noted that this demand
is created, to some extent, by investors and the
price slowdown may be the aftermath of the
world financial crisis.
Producer prices
Industrial producer prices gained 17.6% in
January-September 2008 as against 17.0% in the
same period last year. The acceleration of produc-
er price growth was primarily due to price growth
in the manufacturing sector and the production
and distribution of electricity, gas and water.
In the manufacturing sector, producer pric -
es rose 19.6% in January-September 2008 as
against 10.5% in the same period last year. They
increased particularly in the production of coke
(by 76.9% as against 21.9% in the same period of
2007) and chemicals (by 40.3% as against 6.7%)
and the metallurgy sector (by 38.7% as against
7.2%).
Manufacturing industries turning out prod -
ucts for the consumer market saw prices rise
faster in January-September 2008 than in the
same period of 2007. Prices in the production
of foodstuffs, including beverages, and to -
bacco increased 12.9% as against 11.5% in Jan -
uary-September 2007 and textile and clothing
producer prices went up 8.8% as against 7.5%.
Price growth in the production of leather, leath -
er goods and footwear was unchanged on last
year’s 7.1%.
Price growth in the production, transmission
and distribution of electricity accelerated from
16.7% in January-September 2007 to 20.4%.
Producer price growth in the mining sector
slowed from 36.4% in the same period last year
to 11.7%. In the hydrocarbon extraction sector, it
8 2008 Q3
stood at 11.6% as against 40.5% in January-Sep-
tember 2007. The hydrocarbon extraction sector
excluded, producer price growth in the mining
sector accelerated to 12.9% in January-Septem -
ber 2008 as against 7.3% in the same period last
year.
Price dynamics in the mining sector account-
ed for an estimated 3.1 percentage points, or
17.7%, of overall industrial producer price growth
in January-September 2008. This compares with
8.2 percentage points and 47.8% in the same pe-
riod last year.
Freight transportation charges grew
21.6% in January-September 2008 as against
17.7% in the same period of 2007. Railway trans-
port fares went up 22.1% as against 7.7% in the
previous year.
Communication fees for corporate enti -
ties increased 11.4% in nine months of the year
as against 4.1% in the same period of 2007.
Producer price growth in the construction
sector stood at 15.8% in January-September 2008
as against 12.4% in the same period of 2007.
Agricultural producer price growth
slowed to 1.6% in January-September 2008 as
against 9.3% in the same period last year. Prices
of crop-growing sector went up 7.7% as against
16.2% in the previous year, of which grain pro -
ducer prices rose 9.1% (as against 31.4% in the
same period of 2007), sunflower producer pric -
es were up 17.4% as against 16.6% and potato
producer prices gained 23.7% as against 22.0%.
Vegetable producer prices dropped 26.2% (in
January-September 2007, they declined 25.0%).
Livestock producer prices fell 2.7%, whereas in
January-September 2007 they increased 4.6%.
Foreign trade
The price situation for major Russian export
commodities2 on world markets in January-Sep -
tember 2008 was much better than in the same
period last year, despite the fall in the price of oil
and many other raw materials in the third quarter
of the year. Energy prices rose 67% on average
and non-energy prices increased 25%.
The acceleration of growth in oil prices in
the first half of the year was due to high demand
for energy not only by major consumers, but also
investors, the contraction of world crude stocks,
the devaluation of the US dollar and political in -
stability in the world. Oil prices reached their high
on July 11 when Urals traded at $ 139.9 per barrel.
However, in the middle of the month the situation
on the raw material markets changed abruptly.
As the world financial crisis deteriorated and the
United States and some European countries an -
ticipated a recession, lower world demand for
energy, the appreciation of the US dollar and the
outflow of investments from commodity markets
led to a sharp fall in oil prices in July-September.
As a result, by the end of September the price of
Russian oil on the world market declined by more
than one-third from its highest level and stood at
$ 91.8 per barrel. However, in the third quarter as
a whole the average price of Urals crude fell 3.8%
to $ 112.4 per barrel, according to Bank of Russia
estimates. The fall in oil prices was followed by a
decline in the price of petroleum products. Petrol
and diesel prices dropped 4-6.0% on average in
the third quarter. Meanwhile, the prices of natu-
ral gas, fuel oil and coal continued to rise: as com-
pared with the second quarter, they increased
17.9%, 12.8% and 17.4% respectively.
In nine months of this year, the average
world price of Russian oil stood at $ 107.6 per bar-
2 Average prices are based on data provided daily by the fol Average prices are based on data provided daily by the fol 
lowing news agencies and exchanges: Reuters for oil, Petro 
leum Argus for petroleum products (petrol, diesel and fuel
oil) and the London Metal Exchange for non ferrous met 
als (aluminium, copper and nickel). Natural gas prices are
monthly averages, ferrous metal prices are World Bank price
indices and prices of other commodities are monthly aver 
ages published by the IMF .
Inflation Dynamics
2008 Q3 9
Inflation in some countries of the world1
Inflation in the countries that account for a significant share of Russian imports increased from 3.3% in the
first nine months of 2007 to 4.7% in January September 2008 (September on December of the previous year).
Most of Russia’s trading partners saw price growth
accelerate. Ukraine, where inflation increased to
16.1% as against 8.6% in January September 2007,
made the biggest contribution to aggregate inflation
growth. Inflation in many countries was stimulated
by growth in energy and food prices on world mar 
kets in the first half of the year . In the third quarter of
the year, Russia’s major trading partners saw inflation
slow down.
US consumer price growth stood at 4.2% in
September 2008 on December 2007 (in September
2007, it stood at 3.3%). Eurozone inflation quick 
ened to 2.2% as against 1.6% in January September
2007. In both cases, growth resulted from energy
and food price increases (core inflation’s contribu 
tion to overall consumer price growth remained un 
changed on January September 2007). As world
oil prices fell in the third quarter, US and eurozone
inflation slowed down. As a result of the decline in
economic activity registered in the third quarter core
inflation steadied in the United States and slowed
down in the eurozone.
1 According to data compiled by the Bureau of Labour Statistics at the US Department of Labour, the Statistical Office of the
European Communities (Eurostat) and national statistical agencies of other countries. The contribution of individual factors
to US and eurozone inflation has been evaluated by the Bank of Russia.
rel, an increase of 68.2% on the same period last
year (in January-September 2007, it rose 2.4%).
Petroleum product prices gained 72.2% on aver -
age (as against 1.5%), with diesel prices soar -
ing 74.6% (in January-September 2007, they
declined 0.6%) and fuel oil jumping up 73.0%
(as against 2.5%). In the meantime, the price of
premium petrol rose 42.0% (as against 4.0% in
the previous year) and straight was up 48.2% (as
against 9.0%). The price of natural gas in Europe
increased 52.5% (in January-September 2007, it
fell 0.3%) and coal 130% (in the same period last
year, it rose 19.8%).
The main factor of price growth on the world
ferrous metal market this year has been the in -
crease in the prices of raw materials for their
production and electricity prices. In September,
ferrous metal prices started to fall due to lower
growth in demand, especially in China, but in the
third quarter of this year they were higher than
in the second. As a result, in nine months of this
year, ferrous metal prices grew 58% on average
on the same period last year (in January-Septem-
ber 2007, they rose 32%).
The escalation of the world financial crisis,
which caused investor demand for non-ferrous
metals to decline, lower world economic growth
and industrial demand led to a fall in non-ferrous
10 2008 Q3
metal prices in the third quarter of this year. Quar-
ter on quarter, the prices of copper fell 5.2%,
aluminium 9.2% and nickel 26.0% (nickel prices
had been falling for the past five quarters). As a
result, in nine months of the year, the prices of
aluminium were up 4.7% and copper 12.3%, as
compared with the same period last year, where-
as nickel was down 38.3% (in January-Septem -
ber 2007, the prices of aluminium rose 7.3% and
copper 7.4% as compared with the same period
of the previous year and the price of nickel was
90% higher). The world prices of other Russian
raw material exports, except wood and saw tim -
ber, were considerably higher than in January-
September 2007.
World prices of some of the major Russian
food imports 3 rose while some fell in the third
quarter of the year. Grain, vegetable oil and ani -
mal fat prices declined, whereas meat and sugar
prices increased.
After a sharp rise in world wheat prices from
June 2007 to March 2008, in April they started to
decline on expectations of a bumper harvest and
in the third quarter this tendency increased due
to lower world demand and the outflow of in -
vestment from commodity markets. The price of
American wheat fell 8.3% in the third quarter of
this year, as compared with the second one, and
Canadian wheat was down 19.4%. Maize and
3 Average sugar prices have been calculated on the basis of
data provided daily by the London Commodity Exchange,
other prices are monthly averages published by the World
Bank and the IMF .
barley prices kept on rising throughout the first
half of 2008 due to high demand, supported,
among other things, by the production of bio-
fuel. In the third quarter, however, prices started
to fall on these markets: maize prices began to
decline in July and barley in August. As compared
with the second quarter, the price of American
wheat dropped 5.5% and Canadian barley went
down 9.4%. However, the price downturn not -
withstanding, grain prices in January-September
2008 were considerably higher than in the same
period last year: the price of American wheat was
higher by 58.5% (in January-September 2007,
it was 21.4% higher than in the same period of
2006), Canadian wheat 90.1% (23.7%), Ameri -
can maize 49.5% (46.0%) and Canadian barley
36.0% (54.1%). The sharp rise in rice prices in
the second quarter of this year (by 80% quarter
on quarter) was caused by poor harvest, the con-
traction of stocks, restrictions placed on rice ex -
ports by some countries and the ensuing shortage
on the world market. The expectations of a good
harvest and the overall tendency towards decline
in raw material prices contributed to a fall in rice
prices, which dropped 17.8% in the third quarter.
In nine months of this year, the price of rice was
2.1 times higher than in the same period last year
(in January-September 2007, it was 4.7% higher
than in the same period of the previous year).
Growth in energy and fodder prices and
higher world demand led to growth in meat pric-
es. At the same time, the expectations of bumper
grain harvests, the fall in fuel and energy prices,
Inflation Dynamics
2008 Q3 11
lower demand due to economic problems in the
leading industrialised nations and the price down-
turn on most world commodity markets affected
meat price dynamics: beef prices started to fall in
August and pork and poultry prices in September.
However, in the third quarter of this year the price
of beef rose 11.9% quarter on quarter, pork 8.7%
and poultry 5.4%. In January-September 2008,
beef prices went up 26.3% year on year (in Janu-
ary-September 2007, they increased 3.7%), pork
was up 0.3% (4.3%) and poultry 7.0% (13.1%).
After significant price growth on the world
market of milk and dairy products in 2007, their
prices mostly declined since the beginning of
2008, largely due to the increased supply to the
world market. As a result, the average contract
import price of milk in the third quarter of this
year fell 6.1% as compared with the second quar-
ter, whereas in January-September 2008 it rose
12.8% as compared with the same period last
year (in January-September 2007, it increased
47.8%).
Growth in butter prices slowed down in the
second and third quarters of this year, to 4.2%
and 0.4% respectively (as against 27-28% in
the previous two quarters). In January-Septem -
ber 2008, the world price of butter was by 90%
higher than in the same period last year (in Janu-
ary-September 2007, it was 8.7% higher than in
the same period of the previous year).
The price of sunflower oil grew in the first
half of this year due to decline in production in
the previous two agricultural years and a sharp
fall in exports from Ukraine and Argentina. In
the third quarter of the year, it started to fall: as
compared with the previous quarter, sunflower
oil prices dropped 29.4%. However, world prices
of sunflower oil remained high in January-Sep -
tember 2008: they rose 90% year on year (in
January-September 2007, they grew 40%).
Prices tended upwards on the world sugar
market in January-September 2008. Sustained
growth in the demand for sugar amid production
decline, especially in India and Europe, led to the
contraction of sugar exports and world stocks. In
the third quarter of this year, price growth also
accelerated quarter on quarter: the price of raw
sugar rose 13.9% and refined sugar 13.4% (in the
previous quarter, it fell 11.0% and 1.4% respec -
tively). In nine months of the year, the price of
raw sugar gained 16.8% and refined sugar 13.6%
(in January-September 2007, sugar prices fell
40.7% and 34.0% respectively).
The price situation on world commodity
markets in the third quarter of this year remained
conducive to the improvement of the terms of
trade4 between Russia and other countries, but,
according to a Bank of Russia estimate, the in -
crease of the terms of trade index slowed down
as compared with the previous quarter. However,
in nine months of this year, the rise of this index
accelerated, compared to the same period last
year, as export prices grew more rapidly than im-
port prices.
4 The ratio between export and import price indices.
12 2008 Q3
The trade surplus expanded significantly in
the third quarter and in nine months of this year,
as compared with the corresponding periods last
year, due to rapid growth in exports. In January-
September 2008, the trade surplus 5 increased
almost 70% to $ 153.3 billion (in nine months of
2007, it contracted 18.3% to $ 91.0 billion).
Demand
Domestic demand
Russia’s GDP grew by an estimated 7.2%
in January-September 2008, as compared with
the same period last year (in January-September
2007, it increased 7.6%). Domestic demand, in -
cluding the demand for imported products, con -
tinued to expand. Estimates show that demand
for imports grew faster than demand for domes-
tic products.
Although imports still accounted for a large
part of retail trade’s goods resources, in the first
half of the year, it decreased by 1.5 percentage
points on the January-June 2007 level and stood
at 44.9%. The share of imported food prod -
ucts contracted from 36.9% to 35.9% and that
of non-food imports shrank by 1.9 percentage
points to 52.4%.
Investment and consumer goods imports
increased at rapid rates. According to a Bank of
Russia estimate, growth in investment goods
necessary for economic development was a
little faster than growth in consumer goods im -
ports, which, as before, was largely due to rapid
5 According to the balance of payments estimate as of Octo 
ber 3, 2008.
growth in imports of cars, household appliances
and other non-food products. In the second and
third quarters, however, growth in food imports
accelerated due to both the rise in contract prices
and the expansion of import volumes.
Imports from non-CIS countries, especial -
ly Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC)
member states, primarily China and Japan, grew
faster than overall imports6 in January-September
2008. Growth in imports from European Union
member countries also slightly exceeded growth
in imports from all other countries. CIS imports
increased more slowly than overall imports amid
the contraction of imports from Uzbekistan and
Georgia.
Imports of goods increased in January-
September 2008 due to both the expansion of
import volumes and growth in import prices. In
the third quarter, as in the second, growth in im-
port volumes slowed, whereas the rise in import
prices accelerated. The increase in import prices,
especially the prices of imported foodstuffs and
raw materials for their production, led to price
growth on the domestic market. The increase in
the cost of imports was largely due to growth in
engineering imports. Machinery, equipment and
transport vehicles accounted for 52.9% of total
imports in January-September 2008 as against
49.8% in the same period last year.
Wage and social benefit increases in Janu -
ary-September 2008 contributed to growth (by
7.8%) in household real disposable money in -
6 Source: The Federal Customs Service.
Foreign trade in some countries1
In the middle of the year, the terms of trade began to change for the worse for oil exporting countries. The
unfavourable situation in the world economy , caused by the financial crisis, is affecting the dynamics of demand
for energy products. In the past three months, the International Energy Agency has lowered its world oil con 
sumption estimates and forecasts for the third and fourth quarter of the year and for 2008 as a whole. The IMF
believes that the average Brent, Dubai and WTI crude prices will fall by 31.8% in 2009 after the 40.2% increase
in 2008 (World Economic Outlook Update, November 2008). Growth in international trade in goods and ser 
vices is expected to slow down significantly in 2008 2009.
The terms of exports of mineral fuel were good for Russia in January September 2008 as a large part of
them were supplied to the European Union member countries where oil consumption is relatively stable. EU
expenditures on the consumption of mineral fuel increased in the period under review (exports from Russia ac 
counted for more than a quarter of total consumption in value).
1 According to data provided by the International Energy Agency , International Monetary Fund, and Eurostat.
Inflation Dynamics
2008 Q3 13
GDP consumption
(growth as % of corresponding period of previous year)
2007 2008
Q1 Q2 H1 Q1 Q2 H1
GDP 7.4 8.1 7.8 8.5 7.5 8.0
Final consumption 10.4 10.6 10.5 10.6 9.4 9.9
Of which:
– households 12.4 12.7 12.5 14.1 12.2 13.1
Gross capital formation 24.9 25.9 25.5 10.4 17.8 14.6
Net exports -23.9 -29.2 -26.4 -7.3 -32.6 -19.2
Source: Rosstat.
come. The share of wages and salaries contract -
ed in it from 69.3% in the same period of 2007
to 68.4%, whereas the share of social transfers
expanded. The structure of household income
use also changed in January-September 2008:
the share of consumer spending increased from
71.4% to 73.2%, compulsory payments and du -
ties from 12.4% to 13.0% and foreign exchange
purchases from 5.2% to 5.6%. The share of
organised savings contracted by a percentage
point to 7.3%. Expenditures on household final
consumption increased 13.1% in the first half of
this year as against 12.5% in the same period last
year.
Government expenditures on final con -
sumption increased 2.3% in the first half of 2008
(5.5% in January-June 2007). According to the
Federal Treasury’s preliminary data, federal bud -
get expenditures in January-September 2008 in -
creased by 0.1 percentage points, as compared
with the same period last year, and stood at
14.9% of GDP. Non-interest expenditures stood
at 14.5% of GDP as against 14.4% in January-
September 2007. This growth may be attributed
to higher social expenditures and the carryover of
a part of expenditure obligations from 2007 to
the current year. Federal budget non-interest ex-
penditures in January-September 2008 account -
ed for 60.3% of the updated budget projection
for the year, which represents a considerable in -
crease on the previous year’s 52.4%. The federal
budget surplus stood at 8.3% of GDP in January-
September 2008, an increase of 1.3 percentage
points on the same period last year.
Gross capital formation increased 14.6% in
January-June 2008 as against 25.5% in the cor -
responding period last year. Growth in investor
activity continued to slow down in the third quar-
ter of the year. In January-September 2008, fixed
capital investment grew 13.1% as against 21.3%
in the same period of 2007. The largest sums
were invested in mining, transport and commu -
nications.
Investments in machinery, equipment and
transport vehicles accounted for more than a
third of total investment. About one-fifth went to
import equipment. Imports of machinery, equip-
ment and transport vehicles increased 59.5%
in the first half of the year as against 59.8% in
January-September 2007. Growth in imports of
machinery and equipment is one factor of mod -
ernisation of production and introduction of ad -
vanced technologies, which help increase labour
productivity, contain price growth in the econo -
my and create conditions conducive to sustain -
able economic growth.
Fixed capital investment was mostly financed
by raised funds (55.7%) in January-June 2008.
Bank loans accounted for 10.5% as against 9.8%
in January-September 2007.
14 2008 Q3
As imports grew considerably faster than
exports, net exports contracted 19.2% in Janu -
ary-June 2008.
Thus, growth in domestic demand stimulat -
ed rapid economic growth and caused production
to surpass its natural (potential) level in January-
September 2008.
Foreign demand
Despite the fall in oil prices that began in the
middle of July, third-quarter export growth rates
remained almost as high as in the previous two
quarters. As compared with the first nine months
of 2007, commodity exports7 increased 51.9% to
$ 372.0 billion. Commodity exports to EU coun -
tries, especially Italy, Germany and Poland, and
APEC members, particularly Japan, the United
States and South Korea, grew faster than overall
exports in January-September 2008. 8 Exports to
the CIS countries grew more slowly than overall
exports (exports continued to increase rapidly to
Ukraine and Belarus).
Growth in the value of Russian commod -
ity exports in January-September 2008, as com -
pared with the same period last year, was chiefly
due to higher value of energy exports, which was
accompanied by the expansion of natural gas
and petroleum products export volumes. Oil ex -
ports contracted in volume in January-September
2008. The expansion of commodity export vol -
7 According to the balance of payments estimate as of Octo 
ber 3, 2008.
8 Source: The Federal Customs Service.
umes was considerably slower than growth in
commodity export prices.
Supply
Production growth continued in most of
economic activities in January-September 2008.
As for the structure of growth in gross value add-
ed in the first half of this year, the share of the
manufacturing sector, construction, education
and healthcare expanded year on year, whereas
the share of the mining sector contracted.
Output in the key activities in January-Sep -
tember 2008 increased 7.3% as against 7.8% in
the same period last year. The most rapid rates of
growth were registered in the construction sector
and retail trade. Retail trade turnover expanded
15.0% in January-September 2008 as against
15.8% in the same period of 2007 and construc -
tion increased 17.0% as against 18.1% in the pre-
vious year.
Industrial output increased 5.4% in January-
September 2008 as against 6.6% in the same pe-
riod last year. This minor slowdown is largely due
to lower production growth in the manufacturing
sector (from 10.1% in January-September 2007
to 7.7% in January-September 2008) and mining
sector (from 2.2% to 0.5%).
Prices changed in the economy amid the
expansion of goods supply. Agricultural out -
put increased 6.5% in January-September 2008
as compared with the same period last year (in
January-September 2007, it grew 3.4%). Growth
was registered in the output of key livestock
products, such as cattle and poultry in slaughter
weight, which increased 8.0%, and milk, which
Economic growth in foreign countries1
GDP growth rates in the countries that account for a large part of Russian exports slowed to an estimated
3.6% in January September 2008, as compared with the same period last year . This compares with 4.9% in
January September 2007. According to estimates and preliminary data, GDP grew 1.8% in the United States
as against 1.9% in the nine months of 2007, 1.4 1.5% as against 2.8% in the eurozone and 9.0% as against
12.2% in China. The IMF has lowered its world economic growth forecast for 2008 from 4.1% as of July 2008
to 3.7% as of November 2008. The escalation of the financial crisis in the United States affected other countries
and world financial and commodity and raw material markets. Judging by some developments, the industrialised
nations are entering a cyclic recession. The weakening of demand in the countries with a high level of per capita
consumption along with world financial problems will adversely impact exports and investments of emerging
markets.
1 According to data compiled by the US Commerce Department Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, China’s National
Statistics Bureau and national statistics agencies of other countries.
Inflation Dynamics
2008 Q3 15
grew 1.2%. As a result, the output of meat and
meat products increased 7.0% in January-Sep -
tember 2008, of which meat, including quality
meat sub-products, grew 12.7%. As a result, pro-
ducer price growth slowed down in agriculture.
Labour market
The number of people employed in the
economy continued to rise in January-September
2008 but considerably more slowly than in the
same period last year (0.9% as against 2.6%).
Labour productivity increased by an esti -
mated 7% in the first half of this year as against
5% in the first half of last year, stemming price
growth in the economy. An estimate shows that
labour productivity in goods and services sectors
grew roughly at the same rates, whereas the pro-
duction of services grew faster than the produc -
tion of goods. The number of employed in the
services sector increased on the previous year but
decreased in the goods sector.
As in the previous years, real wage in Jan -
uary-September 2008 grew faster (by 12.8%)
than labour productivity, but this gap narrowed
as compared with the same period last year.
In the GDP structure by income, the share of
wage contracted from 48.4% in the first half of
last year to 47.6% in the first half of this year.
Wages continued to differ significantly in
various activities in 2008. The highest average
monthly wage in January-September 2008 was
registered in the financial sector (40,241 rubles)
and hydrocarbon extraction sector (36,963 ru -
bles). This exceeds the national average by 2.4
times and 2.2 times respectively. The lowest wage
was registered in agriculture, hunting and for -
estry (7,718 rubles), textile and clothing produc -
tion (7,888 rubles) and the production of leath -
er, leather goods and footwear (9,063 rubles).
This represents respectively 46.8%, 47.8% and
54.9% of the national average. Wages below the
national average were registered in the sectors
that receive considerable government funding
(education, utilities, public and personal services,
healthcare and social services).
The jobless rate (calculated by the ILO meth-
odology) fell 5.9% in January-September 2008.
The total number of unemployed in that period
declined to an estimated 5.9% of the economi -
cally active population as against 6.2% in Janu -
ary-September 2007.
16 2008 Q3
Monetary Conditions
Exchange rate
The current account surplus stood at $ 27.6
billion in the third quarter of this year, according
to a federal balance of payments estimate. This
represents a slight increase on the previous quar-
ter’s $ 26.2 billion and significant growth on the
third quarter of 2007 ($ 15.5 billion). Preliminary
data indicate that there was a private sector net
capital outflow of $ 16.7 billion in the third quar -
ter of the year, which is largely attributable to
the worsening of political and external economic
conditions since August.
Throughout the period under review, the
Bank of Russia first bought foreign currency (in
July and August) and then sold it (in August and
September) on the domestic foreign exchange
market. At the same time, while implementing the
currency intervention strategy it proclaimed, the
Bank of Russia let the bi-currency basket fluctu -
ate within a considerably wider range than in the
previous quarter. As a result, after reaching an all-
time record high of $ 598.1 billion early in August,
international reserves decreased to $ 556.8 billion
at the end of the quarter. In October, the Bank
of Russia remained a seller of foreign currency
amid the continuing weakening of the ruble and
eventually by the end of the month international
reserves contracted to $ 484.6 billion.
The nominal ruble / US dollar rate declined
in the third quarter, the first quarter-on-quarter
fall since 2005. The weakening of the ruble con -
tinued amid the sustained tendency towards the
dollar’s appreciation against some world curren -
cies. This was the result of lower oil prices, the
relatively favourable macroeconomic statistics on
the US economy and the adoption of timely mea-
sures to prop up the US financial market, which
provoked an overall favourable reaction from in -
vestors. In the period from July through Septem -
ber, the ruble depreciated 2.5% against the dollar,
whereas in the second quarter the ruble gained
2.7% against the dollar. The dollar continued to
appreciate against the ruble in October and by
the end of the month the ruble depreciated 4.1%
against the dollar and stood at 26.5430.
The nominal ruble / euro rate rose 1.2% in
the third quarter as compared with the second,
when it lost 1.7%. In October, the ruble continued
to appreciate against the euro and gained 3.0%
as a result. The nominal ruble rate against the
bi-currency basket fell 0.5% in the quarter un -
der review, whereas in the previous quarter it
gained 0.2%. It depreciated 0.4% in October.
The nominal effective ruble rate against
foreign currencies dropped 0.9% in July-Septem-
ber (0.4% in the second quarter). The real ef -
fective ruble rate appreciated 0.5% as against
1.5% in the previous quarter. This rally was due to
the fact that Russian inflation was higher than in-
flation in Russia’s trading partners as a whole. At
the same time, price growth in Russia relative to
price growth in Russia’s trading partners some -
what slowed in the quarter under review, mostly
due to the seasonal fluctuations of domestic in -
flation. In October, the nominal effective ruble
rate appreciated 2.1%. The rally was largely due
to the ruble’s growth against the euro, the ma -
jor currency of the countries trading with Russia,
in that period, caused, to a great extent, by the
measures taken by the Bank of Russia to keep the
value of the bi-currency basket within the pre-set
range. At the same time, this was also the result
of the ruble’s appreciation against other cur -
rencies of Russia’s trading partners. According
Monetary Conditions
2008 Q3 17
to preliminary data, the ruble appreciated 2.6%
against foreign currencies in real terms.
The real ruble / US dollar rate depreciated
1.6% in the third quarter, whereas in the second it
appreciated 4.4%. The ruble’s nominal deprecia-
tion against the dollar was a major factor of the
ruble’s weakening against the dollar in real terms,
as it completely offset the positive price differen-
tial between Russia and the United States.
The real ruble / euro rate gained 2.8% in
the third quarter of this year as against 0.8% in
the second. The appreciation was chiefly due to
the nominal rise of the ruble against the euro in
the quarter under review and the importance of
this factor increased significantly as compared
with the previous quarter.
International currency market
The international currency market continued to register the dollar’s depreciation against the currencies
of most of Russia’s trading partners in the first half of this year, but in the third quarter the dollar appreciated
sharply. As a result, in the nine months of the year (September to December 2007), the dollar gained about
1.5% against the euro. It also appreciated significantly against the British pound, South Korean won and Turkish
lira. At the same time, the dollar depreciated about
8% against the yuan and about 5% against the yen.
The yuan’s appreciation against the dollar ac 
celerated in January September 2008, as compared
with the same period last year, as the Chinese author 
ities eased their exchange rate policy , but in the third
quarter the yuan’s rise slowed down. The National
Bank of Ukraine last May revalued the hryvnia against
the dollar, allowing the Ukrainian currency to appreci 
ate from 5.05 hryvnia to the dollar in the period since
May 2005 to 4.85 hryvnia. It should be noted that in
October Ukraine devalued its currency because of a
huge imbalance between demand and supply on the
domestic foreign exchange market, which reflected
the weakening of the balance of payments and fi 
nancial problems of the country. The National Bank
of the Republic of Belarus in 2008 began to use the
Belarusian ruble / US dollar rate as a single operating
benchmark on the foreign exchange market.
18 2008 Q3
Interest rates
Money market and Bank of Russia inter -
est rates
As the inflationary pressure remained, on July
14, the Bank of Russia raised the limit of its inter-
est rate band by a quarter of a percentage point:
the overnight rate that set the upper limit of the
band was raised from 10.75% to 11.0% p.a. and
the ‘tom-next’ deposit rate, which set the lower
limit of the band, was increased from 3.5% to
3.75% p.a. At the same time, the minimum over-
night repo auction rate was lifted from 6.75% to
7.0% p.a. In addition, the Bank of Russia hiked
interest rates on all its operations by a quarter of
a percentage point.
Foreign central bank policies
In January September 2008, the policies pursued by foreign central banks aimed largely to protect the
financial sector from systemic risk. This was the top priority for the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England. At
the same time, the monetary authorities realised the
need to stem the acceleration of inflation. It is the task
of curbing inflation that forced the European Central
Bank (ECB) and central banks of some other coun 
tries to change their interest rate policy. In the first
half of the year, the ECB maintained the refinance
rate at 4.0% p.a., but in July it raised it to 4.25% p.a.
Interest rates were also raised in Denmark, Sweden,
Norway , Poland, Hungary , Turkey , India, Indonesia
and Thailand.
The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate
from 4.25% to 2.0% p.a. in the period under review.
The Bank of England slashed the refinance rate from
5.5% to 5.0% p.a. The People’s Bank of China re 
duced the benchmark yuan credit rate in September .
It should be noted that in October the central banks
of many countries, including those mentioned above,
undertook concerted action to cut interest rates. The
LIBOR on dollar denominated deposits in January 
September 2008 were lower than the LIBOR on eu 
ro denominated deposits.1
1 Source: Reuters.
Monetary Conditions
2008 Q3 19
In August and September, the Bank of Russia
interest rate band and minimum overnight repo
auction rate remained unchanged. However, as
liquidity problems exacerbated and stock market
prices plummeted, on September 18 the Bank of
Russia cut interest rates on some of its liquidity-
boosting operations (see Box ‘Measures taken by
the Bank of Russia to Stabilise the Liquidity Situa-
tion in August-October 2008’).
As the crisis escalated on the financial mar -
ket, in October the Bank of Russia raised interest
rates on ‘tom-next, ‘spot-next’ and ‘call’ deposits
to 4.75% p.a. and interest rates on ‘1-week’ and
‘spot-week’ deposit operations to 5.25% p.a.
to discourage capital outflow from Russia. As a
result, the raising of the ‘tom-next’ deposit rate
narrowed the interest rate band by a percentage
point in October.
High interest rates on the Russian interbank
credit market in August-October, both short- and
longer-term, showed that the liquidity situation
remained difficult in that period. The average
daily banking sector debt to the Bank of Russia
on the liquidity-boosting instruments increased
from 60 billion rubles in the first half of the year
to 145 billion rubles in the third quarter and al -
most 560 billion rubles in October. The average
daily debt owned by the Bank of Russia on the
bank liquidity absorption instruments stood at
250 billion rubles in the third quarter, but in Octo-
ber it contracted to 178 billion rubles (in the first
half of the year, it stood at 288 billion rubles).
The deepening of the world financial crisis in
the third quarter of the year amid the escalation
of international tension provoked capital outflow
from the Russian financial market and destabi -
lised it. As Russian banks began increasingly to
distrust one another, they pursued a cautious
lending policy on the money market, keeping a
part of their funds in reserve in correspondent ac-
counts. Although they had considerable ruble re-
sources, interbank loan rates increased signifi-
cantly. The average quarterly MIACR on overnight
ruble loans stood at 5.7% p.a. in the third quarter
20 2008 Q3
Measures taken by the Bank of Russia to Stabilise the Liquidity Situation in August-October 2008
Higher instability on world financial markets in August and the worsening of the situation in September
and October created liquidity problems on the Russian money market. As stock market prices declined, interbank
credit problems arose in September and October, caused, among other things, by non payments on inter dealer
repo operations. Liquidity shortages amid the evolving exchange rate dynamics and market participants’ corre 
sponding expectations led to significant growth in banking sector demand for foreign exchange. In August, the
Bank of Russia had to sell foreign currency and in September and October it conducted currency interventions
daily. In that period, Bank of Russia’s net sales of foreign exchange totalled 55.8 billion US dollars and 3.9 billion
euros. In that situation, the Bank of Russia Board of Directors decided to take a series of actions to shore up the
banking sector’s ruble liquidity.
The lowering of required reserve ratios on September 18 by 4 percentage points released nearly 260 bil 
lion rubles and their subsequent reduction on October 15 by half a percentage point for each category of the
required reserves infused the banking system with an additional 100 billion rubles.
In August October, the Bank of Russia increased significantly the funds provided to credit institutions for
longer terms. As the liquidity situation exacerbated, on September 18, it cut by half a percentage point fixed
interest rates on loans secured by ‘non market’ assets or guarantees. In addition, on October 15, the Bank of
Russia reduced by half a percentage point to 9% p.a. the interest rate on loans secured by ‘non market’ assets
and extended for terms of up to 30 days. Overall, in the period from August through October, the Bank of Russia
extended for a term of 1 month and longer a total of 74.0 billion rubles in loans secured by ‘non market’ assets
and guarantees.
T o scale up the liquidity boosting operations, the Bank of Russia Board of Directors on October 16 passed
the decision allowing the Bank of Russia to extend unsecured loans to Russian credit institutions and on November
5 it extended these loans for the maximum term of 6 months to credit institutions rated BB and higher by Stan 
dard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings and Ba3 and higher by Moody’s Investors Service. In October, the Bank of Russia
extended a total of 631.0 billion rubles in unsecured loans at the average weighted rate of 9.89 10.53% p.a.
On October 20, it began to auction 3 month Lombard loans at the minimum offered rate of 8.5% p.a. and
extend 30 day Lombard loans at the fixed rate of 8.0% p.a. Over the month, it extended 4.8 billion rubles of
3 month Lombard loans and 10.6 billion rubles of 30 day Lombard loans.
In addition, the Bank of Russia set the same minimum offered rate of 7.5% p.a. for 1 week repo auctions
and 2 week Lombard loan auctions. In the period from August through October, the total volume of liquidity
provided for a term of 1 week and 2 weeks through these operations reached almost 110 billion rubles.
Despite growth in liquidity provided for terms longer than 1 month, the Bank of Russia provided most of the
funds to banks through overnight operations. The funds provided through overnight repo auctions in August 
October totalled 10.1 trillion rubles, or 153.0 billion rubles a day on average. Overnight loans extended by the
Bank of Russia during that period at the fixed rate amounted to 74.2 billion rubles, Lombard loans 13.4 billion
rubles and funds provided through repo operations 40.3 billion rubles. It should be noted that on September 18
rates on repo operations and overnight Lombard loans were cut by one percentage point.
Credit institutions were also infused with ruble liquidity through currency swap operations. In Septem 
ber, the interest rate on the ruble part of overnight currency swap operations was cut to 8% p.a. However, to
discourage speculation on the foreign exchange market, the Bank of Russia in October raised this interest rate
to 10% p.a. and began to set a limit on the total amount of funds provided through these transactions. In the
period from August through October, credit institutions received a total of 1.6 trillion rubles through currency
swaps.
Yet another means of injecting ruble liquidity into the banks was depositing temporarily free federal budget
funds with commercial banks.
T o make the refinancing instruments more accessible to credit institutions, the Bank of Russia in September
and October eased the conditions on which banks could get funds using some kinds of security. Specifically , it
cancelled the 1.25% discount in repo operations with federal loan bonds (OFZ) and Bank of Russia bonds (OBR)
and raised the Bank of Russia adjustment ratios used in calculating the value of security for Bank of Russia loans.
In addition, in October the Bank of Russia lowered its issuer / issue rating requirements for the bonds included in
the Bank of Russia Lombard list and the obligor ratings for promissory notes and credit claims accepted as col 
lateral against Bank of Russia loans by two notches, to B / B3 used by rating agencies Fitch Ratings, Standard &
Poor’s and Moody’s Investors Service.
The Federal Law on Additional Measures to Support the Financial System of the Russian Federation, which
came into force in October, granted the Bank of Russia the right (until December 31, 2009) to conclude agree 
ments with credit institutions on compensation of a part of the losses they may incur on loans extended to credit
Monetary Conditions
2008 Q3 21
as against 3.9% p.a. in the second. The increase
in average interest rates was accompanied by a
significant expansion of the band of their fluc -
tuations. In the third quarter, the overnight ruble
MIACR ranged from 3.4% to 12.6% p.a. (in the
second quarter, it fluctuated between 2.9% and
7.6% p.a.). In October, it varied from 4.6% to
13.4% p.a. and averaged 7.6% p.a., the highest
level since June 2004.
Interest rates on interbank ruble loans ex -
tended by Russian banks for a term of 2 to 7
days rose from 4.1% p.a. in the second quar -
institutions whose licence has been revoked. In addition, to enable Vneshekonombank to extend loans to enti 
ties for foreign debt payment and service, the Bank of Russia is to deposit with this bank a total of $ 50 billion
for one year . T o stabilise the liquidity situation, the Bank of Russia may also extend no more than 500 billion
rubles in unsecured subordinated loans to the Savings Bank (Sberbank) until December 31, 2009, at the rate
of 8% p.a. In addition, the law allows the National Wealth Fund to deposit no more than 450 billion rubles with
Vneshekonombank until December 31, 2009, at the rate of 7% p.a. to enable this bank to extend unsecured
subordinated loans to other credit institutions.
The measures taken by the Bank of Russia and the Russian Government, described above, have somewhat
mitigated the liquidity crunch on the Russian money market.
22 2008 Q3
ter to 5.8% p.a. in the third, 8 to 30 days from
6.6% p.a. to 7.7% p.a. and 1 month to 3 months
from 8.0% p.a. to 8.6% p.a. As a result, in the
third quarter, the interbank credit yield curve
moved considerably higher, while its slant re -
mained virtually unchanged. This may testify to
Russian money market participants’ uncertainty
about future rates.
Household deposit rates continued to rise
in the third quarter as competition increased on
the deposit market amid rising demand for fi -
nancial resources and high inflation. The aver -
age rate on household short-term ruble deposits
stood at 7.5% p.a., an increase of 0.3 percentage
points on the previous quarter. The average rate
on household long-term ruble deposits gained
half a percentage point and stood at 9.5% p.a.
As the cost of domestic funds continued to
rise and Russian banks found it increasingly dif -
ficult to raise funds on foreign markets, interest
rates on ruble loans to non-financial organisa-
tions went on rising. The average interest rate on
short-term loans to non-financial organisations
in the third quarter rose by 0.8 percentage points
quarter on quarter and reached 12.0% p.a. The
average quarterly long-term rate also increased
by 0.8 percentage points in that period and stood
at 13.6% p.a. Interest rates on loans with terms
from 1 month to 3 months increased the least (by
0.6 percentage points), whereas interest rates on
loans with terms of up to 1 month increased the
most (by 1.2 percentage points). As a result, the
yield curve for loans to non-financial organisa -
tions moved up, while its slant remained almost
unchanged. This may serve as an indication that
market participants do not expect any significant
growth in inflation or interest rates in the medi -
um term.
There was a rise in interest rates on ruble
loans to households and in other segments of
the credit and deposit market in the third quar -
ter. The average quarterly rate on long-term
loans increased by half a percentage point in the
third quarter, as compared with the second, and
stood at 16.0% p.a. The average rate on short-
term loans gained 1.8 percentage points reaching
22.4% p.a.
Asset prices
The Russian stock market saw a dramatic
fall in prices in the third quarter of the year due to
negative external developments and the failure
by market participants to adequately manage risk
when conducting repo, marginal and unsecured
transactions. The average third-quarter levels of
major Russian stock indices, MICEX and the RTS,
fell respectively by 22.5% and 23.7% in the third
quarter, as compared with the second.
In October, Russian stock price downturn ac-
celerated and in the last 10 days of the month the
RTS and MICEX indices dipped to their lows since
December 2004. The average monthly MICEX in-
dex dropped 38.0% and RTS index 41.7% in Oc -
tober month on month.
The period from July through October saw
all stock prices fall steeply amid higher price vola-
Monetary Conditions
2008 Q3 23
Russian stock market crisis
Capital outflow from Russia, caused by a new round of world financial market instability , amid the limited
presence of conservative investors on the Russian stock market had a negative effect on it. The Russian securi 
ties market experienced the biggest shock in 10 years.
Problems began on the Russian stock market at the beginning of the year . In January and February , the
MICEX and RTS stock indices fell 17% and 18% respectively as compared with the end of 2007. In April and
May , Russian stock prices started to rise again. In the middle of May , the RTS index reached new historical highs,
but then a profound and prolonged downturn of Russian stock prices followed. Until August, stock indices in
Russia declined more slowly than in major foreign stock markets, but later their downfall became considerably
faster .
By September 17, the major Russian stock indices declined almost by half as compared with the middle of
May. The MICEX index reached the lowest level since December 2005 and the RTS index since January 2006.
In that situation, the Federal Financial Market Service suspended corporate securities trading on the MICEX and
in the RTS and imposed a temporary ban on some operations with Russian shares. Exchange trade resumed on
September 19 with pricing soaring but in the last 10 days of September and in October Russian stock indices
continued to decline. Stock trading was repeatedly suspended on the MICEX (in the main trading regime) and
in the RTS in October because of a sharp fall in prices. In the last 10 days of October, the RTS and MICEX indices
plunged to the lowest levels since January 2005. On October 31, the RTS index fell 66.2% as compared with the
end of 2007 and stood at 773.37 points and the MICEX index dropped 61.3% and stood at 731.96 points.
In January August 2008, issuer and investor activity on the corporate bond market was considerably
higher than in the same period of 2007. The lack of demand for corporate bonds with yields acceptable for is 
suers in September and October compelled sub prime corporate borrowers to cancel the planned placements of
new bond issues and in September the value of corporate bonds placed on the exchange and over the counter
markets was the smallest in 12 months. In October, there was a marked rise in the activity of first tier issuers,
who mostly placed big bond issues.
In May , some third tier corporate issuers began to have problems in refinancing their loans and this did not
allow them to honour their debt obligations. As Russian financial market participants grew increasingly distrust 
ful of one another in August October and the borrowing conditions on the domestic market deteriorated, the
number of such corporate borrowers increased significantly (32 technical defaults were registered from May to
October, of which 24 were registered in August October, and nine technical defaults became issuer defaults).
Yields of the most liquid corporate bonds changed both ways in January October 2008. Before the middle
of July , corporate bond yields fluctuated within the horizontal band, but then they started to rise sharply and on
October 28 they reached 20.6% p.a., the highest level on record since this indicator began to be compiled in
July 2003. The average corporate bond yield stood at 8.7% p.a. in the second quarter, 10.6% p.a. in the third
and 17.3% p.a. in October .
24 2008 Q3
tility. The biggest losers in terms of the average
quarterly share price fall were the metallurgy, en-
ergy, financial and oil and gas sector companies.
At the same time, financial and oil and gas com -
pany share prices became particularly volatile.
Share prices of the second- and third-tier com -
panies declined at the most rapid rates because
of their low liquidity.
The OFZ market registered a rise in yields
in the third quarter of the year. As of the end of
the quarter, the OFZ effective market portfolio
indicator (MPI) stood at 7.9% p.a., a percentage
point higher than at the end of the previous quar-
ter. The average quarterly effective MPI gained
0.6 percentage points and reached 7.5% p.a.
OFZ yields in October varied between 8.0% p.a.
and 9.0% p.a. At the end of October, the OFZ
effective MPI stood at 8.1% p.a., an increase on
There was a significant decline in the investment activity of government securities market participants.
In January October, less than 60% of the total value of federal loan bonds (OFZ) placed by the Finance Ministry
were sold. Demand for government bonds was low because of their low real yield. As no primary market auc 
tions were held in early September and auctions were cancelled in the middle of September because of the lack
of demand amid the shortage of ruble liquidity , early in October the issuer suspended all OFZ auctions until the
end of the year .
On the regional (sub federal and municipal) bond market, demand and supply in January June 2008 far
surpassed the levels registered in the same period last year . In July October, however, the demand for regional
bonds fell sharply. The Moscow government could not auction its bonds in July because there were no bidders
who offered the price acceptable for the issuer . In September, the governments of the city of T omsk and the
Krasnoyarsk T erritory suspended bond placements until 2009.
Regional bond yields had a slightly rising dynamics in January June 2008. In July , the yield on the instru 
ments placed by leading issuers started to quickly rise amid a significant expansion of the fluctuation range and
on October 29 it reached 12.9% p.a. (the highest level on record since this indicator began to be compiled in
September 2003). The average yield of regional bonds was 7.6% p.a. in the second quarter, 9.3% p.a. in the
third and 12.0% p.a. in October .
Monetary Conditions
2008 Q3 25
0.3 percentage points on a previous month. The
average effective MPI stood at 8.4% p.a. in Oc -
tober.
The OFZ yield curve remained rising in the
third quarter. Growth in yields on bonds with all
terms to redemption caused the yield curve to
move up at the end of September, with its slant
remained virtually unchanged. In October, short-
and medium-term OFZ yields grew faster than
long-term government bond yields and by the
end of the month the OFZ yield curve became
considerably less inclined. This may serve as an
indication that market participants were expect -
ing a fall in government bond yields.
Monetary aggregates
The annual rates of money growth contin -
ued to decelerate in the third quarter of the year
as growth in money supply slowed down and
growth in money demand decreased significantly.
Growth in the demand for money slowed signifi-
cantly as economic growth rates declined amid
high inflation. However, the marked increase in
demand for foreign exchange and significantly
slower growth in asset prices had the biggest ef -
fect on money demand.
The significant increase in foreign exchange
sales by the Bank of Russia on the domestic mar-
ket amid rising demand for foreign exchange
in August-October led to a sharp fall in ruble li -
quidity, which was previously provided through
currency interventions. As funds in government
accounts with the Bank of Russia continued to
increase, massive foreign exchange sales by the
Bank of Russia contributed to further slowing of
growth in money supply. As a result, the annual
rate of growth in M2 monetary aggregate de-
clined in the third quarter of the year from 31.2%
as of July 1 to 25.1% as of October 1 (as against
48.3% as of October 1, 2007). The most signifi -
cant reduction in the annual rate of growth was
registered in September, when the ruble supply
contracted by 1.1% in absolute terms.
As we can see, the dynamics of monetary
aggregates lead to the tightening of monetary
conditions in the economy. Moreover, rapidly
changing foreign currency preferences of eco -
nomic agents make it increasingly difficult to de-
termine the extent to which these developments
affect aggregate demand. The positive monetary
gap does not allow one to draw the conclusion
about the complete disappearance of inflation
risk in the medium term. However, the effect of
the monetary gap on the acceleration of price
growth amid higher economic and financial un -
certainty is unlikely in the short term.
M1 monetary aggregate, which comprises
cash and demand deposits, demonstrated more
significant contraction than other monetary ag -
gregates. The annual rates of growth in M1 mon-
etary aggregate, which represents the transac -
tional capacity of the economy in cash, slowed
in the third quarter of the year from 21.9% to
14.3%, the lowest level in recent years (46.0%
as of October 1, 2007). Meanwhile, the annual
rates of growth in demand deposits, which are
largely represented by settlement and current
accounts of non-financial organisations, had
slowed to 8.6% by October 1, 2008 (as against
57.6% in the previous year). There is reason to
believe, therefore, that the continued slowing of
M1 growth may be accompanied by the reduc -
tion of aggregate expenditures in the economy
and the further slowing of GDP growth (see Box
‘Monetary and credit aggregates and economic
growth’).
The tendency towards the slowing of annu -
al growth in cash, which emerged amid marked
growth in the value of individual bank card op -
26 2008 Q3
slowed to 25.2% by the end of the third quar -
ter (as against 46.3% as of October 1, 2007),
whereas growth in corporate time deposits accel-
erated to 95.9% (as against 73.5% as of October
1, 2007). Thus, lower growth in ruble time depos-
its was due to the significant slowing of growth
in household time deposits, which began in 2007
and continued in January-September 2008.
Growth in the value of household ruble
deposits decelerated from 8.2% in the second
quarter to 1.5% in the third. The value of house -
hold short-term ruble deposits decreased 6.4% in
September and as a result, the outflow of house-
hold short-term deposits stood at 4.0%. There
was only growth in long-term ruble deposits in
the third quarter, but as compared with the sec -
erations, continued in the third quarter of this
year. Against the background of banking sector
instability and the ruble’s depreciation against the
US dollar higher foreign exchange purchases by
households, especially in September, contributed
towards lower cash growth. In the third quarter,
these purchases increased by more than 1.5 times
as compared with the second. As a result, the an-
nual rate of M0 growth slowed from 34.2% as of
October 1, 2007, to 21.2% as of October 1, 2008.
Despite growth in interest rates, the annu -
al rate of growth in total ruble-denominated
time deposits slowed from 46.0% to 42.4% in
the third quarter of this year (as against 52.1%
as of October 1, 2007). Meanwhile, the annual
rate of growth in household ruble time deposits
Monetary Conditions
2008 Q3 27
One reason for the decrease of household
ruble deposits is rapid price growth. This bank
deposit dynamics may be not only the result of
inflation, but also one of its causes. The accelera-
tion of price growth makes savings and, conse -
quently, money demand less attractive to house-
holds and stimulates the use of money for con -
sumption. This increases aggregate demand and
leads to further growth in consumer prices.
Beginning from the middle of 2007, the an -
nual rates of growth in household foreign cur -
rency deposits have accelerated significantly. At
the same time, in the third quarter of this year,
growth in this kind of deposits somewhat slowed
down (to 31.6% as of October 1, 2008). Howev -
er, it far surpassed growth in the previous three
years and growth in household ruble deposits as
of the same date in the previous year (25.8%).
The slowing of growth in household foreign cur -
rency deposits in the third quarter amid banking
sector instability was, to some extent, the result
of higher public uncertainty and partly reflected
the movement of funds from foreign currency
deposits into cash.
Credit aggregates
After significant growth in total loans to
non-financial organisations and households in
2006 and 2007, in January-September 2008, their
annual growth rates decelerated from 53.0%
to 45.7%. This mostly reflected the tightening
of borrowing conditions inside the country and
abroad, the rise in internal and external interest
rates and lower economic growth. As the credit
market situation remains highly uncertain, the
slowing of growth in credit aggregates, which
began in the second quarter and accelerated in
the third, serves as a major indicator of the seri -
ousness of the changes in the monetary sphere of
the economy. The annual rate of growth in loans
to non-financial organisations in January-Sep -
tember 2008 decelerated from 51.5% to 44.1%.
Moreover, in September they increased 1.7%,
the slowest rate since the beginning of 2007.
The annual rate of growth in loans to households
slowed from 57.8% to 50.7% in nine months of
the year.
Lower growth in credit to non-financial or -
ganisations in the second quarter of the year was
accompanied by the simultaneous reduction of
ond quarter it slowed almost by half, from 8.2%
to 4.5%.
The share of household time deposits in M2
structure in January-September 2008 was on av-
erage smaller than in past three years.
The share of growth in ruble time deposits
in household money income began to contract
in the second half of 2007 and in the third quar -
ter of this year this trend intensified, reflecting
amid extraordinary uncertainty, instability of the
banking system and the devaluation of the ruble
the weakening of the incentives for households
to save in the form of ruble deposits. The share
of growth in foreign currency time deposits in
money income retained an upward trend on the
whole.
28 2008 Q3
the rates of growth in fixed capital investment
and the reduction of growth in long-term credit
to non-financial organisations (loans with terms
over 1 year) from 70.6% as of the beginning of
the year to 53.3% as of October 1 could be espe-
cially painful for the real economy.
Growth in loans extended to non-financial
organisations in rubles slowed from 8.4% in the
second to 5.3% in the third quarter, while over -
due debt on these loans accelerated and stood at
20.4% as against 14.8% in the previous quarter.
Bank loans extended to organisations for terms
up to one year grew at the slowest pace, 1.8%
as against 6.2% quarter on quarter. In Septem -
ber, total ruble loans extended to organisations
increased at the slowest rate in the third quarter
(0.6%), whereas growth in loans extended for
terms up to one year became negative (-1.1%).
Growth in loans extended to households
in rubles decelerated from 13.5% in the sec -
ond quarter to 12.1% in the third. For the first
time on record, the value of new loans ex -
Monetary and credit aggregates and economic growth
Monetary aggregate dynamics may provide some information about the change of the current and future
level of economic activities. The kernel of the matter is that monetary indicators are closely connected with eco 
Monetary Conditions
2008 Q3 29
tended in the period under review was small-
er than in the previous quarter (by 7.7%).
The annual rates of growth in housing
loans slowed from 116.3% as of the begin -
ning of the year to 84.6% as of October 1. At
the same time, loans of this kind continue to
increase in value more rapidly than loans to
households in general and the share of hous-
ing loans in total household loan debt is ex -
panding.
nomic agents’ actual expenditures. Specifically , M1 aggregate, which comprises cash and demand deposits, is
in real terms the most informative indicator for the transactional component of money supply and may be used
as a source of information on GDP dynamics1.
M1 and GDP annual growth fluctuations do not coincide, but the points of change in the trend, that is, the
transition from the acceleration to the slowing of growth and back, in the dynamics of both indicators only differ
by several quarters. There is reason to believe, therefore, that the continuing decline in M1 growth may be ac 
companied by the reduction of aggregate expenditures in the economy and lower GDP growth.
Credit aggregates may also reflect some trends in the real sector, because the decisions taken by economic
agents in regard to lending volumes are mostly based on the current and expected levels of economic activities.
Borrowers will take more loans when they expect high returns and, consequently , have no problem repaying
loans. Banks, for their part, will also expand credit when they are confident of their borrowers’ creditworthiness.
Thus the same dynamics of credit aggregates and economic activity evolve.
At the same time, the change in the accessibility of credit may affect economic agents’ decisions in regard
of consumption and investment volumes. Rising interest rates are indicative of the worsening credit conditions.
However, in the times of crisis and uncertainty on the financial markets market participants change their behav 
iour dramatically. As a result, credit volume becomes a more important indicator than credit price for the analysis
of the monetary sphere, because it is the volume of credit extended that affects aggregate demand dynamics in
the final analysis.
In addition to the comparative analysis of the rates of growth in total credit and GDP growth rates, infor 
mation about current and future economic dynamics may be received from the analysis of the interrelationship
between fixed capital investment and loans extended to non financial organisations for terms over one year . This
interrelationship has become increasingly pronounced in recent years.
Consequently , the 2008 monetary and credit aggregate dynamics may reflect the possibility of a further
slowing of growth in economic activities.
1 GDP growth in 2008 Q3 cited here and below is an estimate.
30 2008 Q3
Statistical Addendum
Table 1
Consumer prices by group of goods and services
(month on month, %)
Monthly
inflation
Core
inflation
Food price
growth
Food price
growth1
Vegetable
and fruit price
growth
Non-food
price growth
Growth in non-
food prices,
excluding petrol
prices2
Service price
growth
January 2.4 0.8 2.0 1.0 11.3 0.4 0.5 6.2
February 1.7 1.2 3.0 1.9 12.6 0.5 0.5 1.0
March 0.8 0.7 1.2 0.9 3.2 0.4 0.4 0.7
April 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 -0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6
May 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 2.6 0.4 0.4 0.6
June 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 -0.6 0.3 0.3 0.7
July 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.7 2.7 0.4 0.3 0.6
August 0.2 0.6 -0.5 0.7 -10.0 0.8 0.5 0.8
September 0.1 0.8 -0.6 0.6 -11.0 0.8 0.6 0.5
October 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.4 -4.1 0.6 0.7 0.4
November 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 2.7 0.6 0.6 0.5
December 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.8 3.6 0.5 0.5 0.7
Full year (December on December) 9.0 7.8 8.7 8.5 10.3 6.0 5.7 13.9
January 1.7 0.6 0.9 0.6 4.1 0.4 0.4 4.7
February 1.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 3.6 0.3 0.4 2.6
March 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.5 3.2 0.4 0.4 0.6
April 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.5 3.1 0.4 0.4 0.5
May 0.6 0.3 1.0 0.1 7.8 0.4 0.3 0.5
June 1.0 0.4 1.7 0.4 12.2 0.3 0.3 0.6
July 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.9 0.4 0.4 0.6
August 0.1 1.1 -0.6 1.6 -16.1 0.6 0.5 0.5
September 0.8 1.6 1.0 2.2 -8.8 0.8 0.8 0.4
October 1.6 2.1 3.3 3.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.1
November 1.2 1.1 1.9 1.5 6.2 0.9 0.8 0.6
December 1.1 0.9 1.6 1.2 5.6 0.7 0.5 0.9
Full year (December on December) 11.9 11.0 15.6 14.9 22.2 6.5 6.4 13.3
January 2.3 1.1 1.9 1.2 8.3 0.6 0.6 5.4
February 1.2 1.0 1.7 1.3 5.1 0.6 0.6 1.4
March 1.2 1.1 2.0 1.5 5.9 0.7 0.7 0.6
April 1.4 1.3 2.2 1.8 5.5 0.9 0.7 1.0
May 1.4 1.1 2.1 1.5 6.4 0.8 0.6 1.0
June 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.7 0.5 1.1
July 0.5 0.8 0.1 1.0 -6.7 0.7 0.5 0.9
August 0.4 1.0 -0.2 1.2 -11.3 0.6 0.6 0.9
September 0.8 1.4 0.7 1.5 -6.4 0.7 0.8 1.0
1 Excluding vegetable and fruit prices.
2 Since March 2005 – Bank of Russia estimate.
Note. T ables 1 to 7 are based on Rosstat data and Bank of Russia calculations.
Statistical Addendum
2008 Q3 31
Table 2
Consumer prices by group of goods and services
(since start of year on accrual basis, %)
Monthly
inflation
Core
inflation
Food price
growth
Food price
growth1
Vegetable
and fruit price
growth
Non-food
price growth
Growth in non-
food prices,
excluding petrol
prices2
Service price
growth
January 2.4 0.8 2.0 1.0 11.3 0.4 0.5 6.2
February 4.1 2.0 5.0 2.9 25.3 0.9 0.9 7.2
March 5.0 2.8 6.2 3.9 29.3 1.3 1.3 8.0
April 5.4 3.2 6.5 4.2 28.9 1.6 1.6 8.6
May 5.9 3.6 7.0 4.4 32.3 2.0 2.0 9.3
June 6.2 3.9 7.0 4.5 31.5 2.3 2.3 10.0
July 6.9 4.5 8.0 5.2 35.0 2.7 2.7 10.7
August 7.1 5.1 7.4 6.0 21.6 3.5 3.2 11.5
September 7.2 5.9 6.7 6.6 8.2 4.3 3.8 12.0
October 7.5 6.5 6.7 7.0 3.7 5.0 4.5 12.5
November 8.2 7.1 7.5 7.6 6.5 5.5 5.2 13.0
December 9.0 7.8 8.7 8.5 10.3 6.0 5.7 13.9
January 1.7 0.6 0.9 0.6 4.1 0.4 0.4 4.7
February 2.8 1.1 1.8 1.1 7.8 0.7 0.8 7.4
March 3.4 1.7 2.6 1.7 11.2 1.1 1.2 8.0
April 4.0 2.2 3.3 2.1 14.7 1.5 1.7 8.6
May 4.7 2.5 4.3 2.3 23.6 1.9 2.0 9.1
June 5.7 3.0 6.1 2.7 38.6 2.2 2.3 9.8
July 6.6 3.9 7.6 4.1 41.2 2.6 2.8 10.5
August 6.7 5.0 7.0 5.8 18.5 3.2 3.3 11.1
September 7.5 6.7 8.1 8.1 8.1 4.0 4.2 11.6
October 9.3 8.9 11.6 11.9 9.0 4.9 5.1 11.7
November 10.6 10.1 13.7 13.5 15.7 5.8 5.9 12.4
December 11.9 11.0 15.6 14.9 22.2 6.5 6.4 13.3
January 2.3 1.1 1.9 1.2 8.3 0.6 0.6 5.4
February 3.5 2.1 3.6 2.5 13.9 1.2 1.2 6.8
March 4.8 3.2 5.7 4.0 20.6 2.0 1.9 7.5
April 6.3 4.5 8.0 5.9 27.2 2.9 2.6 8.5
May 7.7 5.7 10.2 7.5 35.4 3.7 3.2 9.6
June 8.7 6.7 11.4 8.7 36.0 4.4 3.7 10.8
July 9.3 7.6 11.5 9.8 26.9 5.2 4.2 11.9
August 9.7 8.6 11.3 11.2 12.5 5.8 4.9 12.9
September 10.6 10.1 12.1 12.9 5.3 6.5 5.7 14.0
1 Excluding vegetable and fruit prices.
2 Since March 2005 – Bank of Russia estimate.
32 2008 Q3
Table 3
Consumer prices by group of goods and services
(month on month of previous year, %)
Monthly
inflation
Core
inflation
Food price
growth
Food price
growth1
Vegetable
and fruit price
growth
Non-food
price growth
Growth in non-
food prices,
excluding petrol
prices2
Service price
growth
January 10.7 8.2 10.2 9.1 21.1 6.5 6.0 18.1
February 11.2 8.7 11.9 10.1 28.4 6.6 6.1 16.7
March 10.6 8.7 10.9 10.0 19.2 6.7 6.1 16.1
April 9.8 8.2 9.4 9.0 12.7 6.4 6.0 15.9
May 9.4 7.9 8.7 8.5 11.1 6.4 6.0 15.6
June 9.0 7.8 8.0 8.1 7.0 6.4 6.0 15.3
July 9.3 7.8 8.7 8.3 11.9 6.3 5.9 15.0
August 9.6 7.9 9.2 8.5 15.6 6.6 6.0 15.0
September 9.5 7.9 9.3 8.5 16.4 6.2 5.8 14.5
October 9.2 7.8 8.8 8.3 14.4 6.1 5.7 14.1
November 9.0 7.8 8.7 8.3 12.4 6.0 5.7 13.9
December 9.0 7.8 8.7 8.5 10.3 6.0 5.7 13.9
January 8.2 7.7 7.6 8.0 3.1 6.0 5.7 12.3
February 7.6 6.9 5.3 6.6 -5.1 5.8 5.6 14.2
March 7.4 6.7 4.9 6.2 -5.2 5.8 5.6 14.0
April 7.6 6.8 5.4 6.3 -1.9 5.9 5.8 13.9
May 7.8 6.7 5.9 6.3 3.0 5.9 5.7 13.8
June 8.5 6.9 7.7 6.6 16.2 5.9 5.7 13.7
July 8.7 7.3 8.3 7.4 15.3 5.9 5.8 13.7
August 8.6 7.8 8.3 8.3 7.5 5.7 5.8 13.4
September 9.4 8.7 10.0 10.0 10.2 5.8 6.1 13.4
October 10.8 10.3 13.6 13.4 15.9 6.0 6.3 13.1
November 11.5 10.9 14.9 14.4 19.8 6.3 6.4 13.2
December 11.9 11.0 15.6 14.9 22.2 6.5 6.4 13.3
January 12.6 11.5 16.7 15.6 27.1 6.8 6.6 14.1
February 12.7 12.1 17.6 16.4 29.1 7.0 6.8 12.7
March 13.3 12.7 19.1 17.5 32.5 7.4 7.1 12.7
April 14.3 13.5 20.7 19.1 35.6 8.0 7.4 13.3
May 15.1 14.5 22.1 20.7 33.9 8.4 7.7 13.9
June 15.1 15.1 21.3 21.6 19.9 8.9 7.9 14.4
July 14.7 15.0 19.8 21.2 9.8 9.2 8.0 14.7
August 15.0 14.8 20.2 20.8 16.1 9.2 8.1 15.2
September 15.0 14.5 19.9 20.0 19.0 9.1 8.1 15.9
1 Excluding vegetable and fruit prices.
2 Since March 2005 – Bank of Russia estimate.
Statistical Addendum
2008 Q3 33
Table 4
Inflation growth over period since start of year due to price changes
by group of goods and services (percentage points)
Foodstuffs1 Non-food
products
Paid
services
Vegetables and
fruit
Inflation over
period, %
Core
inflation
Non-core
inflation2
January 0.4 0.2 1.5 0.4 2.4 0.6 1.8
February 1.1 0.3 1.7 1.0 4.1 1.5 2.6
March 1.5 0.5 1.9 1.2 5.0 2.1 2.9
April 1.6 0.6 2.0 1.1 5.4 2.5 2.9
May 1.7 0.7 2.2 1.3 5.9 2.7 3.1
June 1.8 0.8 2.4 1.2 6.2 3.0 3.2
July 2.0 0.9 2.5 1.4 6.9 3.4 3.5
August 2.3 1.2 2.7 0.9 7.1 3.9 3.2
September 2.6 1.5 2.9 0.3 7.2 4.6 2.6
October 2.7 1.7 3.0 0.1 7.5 5.0 2.5
November 3.0 1.9 3.1 0.3 8.2 5.5 2.7
December 3.3 2.0 3.3 0.4 9.0 6.1 3.0
January 0.2 0.1 1.2 0.2 1.7 0.5 1.2
February 0.4 0.3 1.8 0.3 2.8 0.9 1.9
March 0.6 0.4 2.0 0.4 3.4 1.3 2.1
April 0.8 0.5 2.1 0.6 4.0 1.7 2.3
May 0.8 0.7 2.3 0.9 4.7 1.9 2.7
June 1.0 0.8 2.4 1.5 5.7 2.3 3.4
July 1.5 0.9 2.6 1.6 6.6 3.0 3.6
August 2.1 1.1 2.7 0.7 6.7 3.9 2.8
September 3.0 1.4 2.9 0.3 7.5 5.3 2.3
October 4.3 1.7 2.9 0.3 9.3 7.0 2.3
November 4.9 2.0 3.1 0.6 10.6 7.9 2.7
December 5.4 2.3 3.3 0.9 11.9 8.7 3.2
January 0.4 0.2 1.3 0.3 2.3 0.8 1.5
February 0.9 0.4 1.7 0.5 3.5 1.6 1.9
March 1.4 0.7 1.9 0.8 4.8 2.5 2.3
April 2.1 1.0 2.1 1.0 6.3 3.6 2.7
May 2.6 1.3 2.4 1.4 7.7 4.5 3.2
June 3.1 1.6 2.7 1.4 8.7 5.3 3.5
July 3.5 1.9 3.0 1.0 9.3 6.0 3.3
August 3.9 2.1 3.2 0.5 9.7 6.8 2.9
September 4.5 2.3 3.5 0.2 10.6 8.0 2.6
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit..
2 Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in calculation of core consumer price index.
34 2008 Q3
Table 5
Monthly inflation growth due to price changes
by group of goods and services (percentage points)
Foodstuffs1 Non-food
products
Paid
services
Vegetables
and fruit
Inflation over
period, %
Core
inflation
Non-core
inflation2
January 0.4 0.2 1.5 0.4 2.4 0.6 1.8
February 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.7 0.9 0.7
March 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.3
April 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0
May 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.2
June 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1
July 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.3
August 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.5 0.2 0.5 -0.3
September 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.5 0.1 0.6 -0.5
October 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.2 0.3 0.4 -0.1
November 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.2
December 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.3
January 0.2 0.1 1.2 0.2 1.7 0.5 1.2
February 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.1 1.1 0.4 0.7
March 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.2
April 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.2
May 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.4
June 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.6
July 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.2
August 0.6 0.2 0.1 -0.8 0.1 0.8 -0.7
September 0.8 0.3 0.1 -0.4 0.8 1.3 -0.5
October 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.6 1.6 0.0
November 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 1.2 0.8 0.4
December 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.1 0.7 0.5
January 0.4 0.2 1.3 0.3 2.3 0.8 1.5
February 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 1.2 0.8 0.4
March 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 1.2 0.8 0.3
April 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 1.4 1.0 0.4
May 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.4 0.9 0.5
June 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.0 0.7 0.2
July 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.3 0.5 0.7 -0.1
August 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.5 0.4 0.8 -0.4
September 0.5 0.2 0.3 -0.3 0.8 1.1 -0.3
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in calculation of core consumer price index.
Statistical Addendum
2008 Q3 35
Table 6
Contribution to inflation growth over period since start of year
by group of goods and services (%)
Foodstuffs1 Non-food products Paid services Vegetables and fruit Core inflation Non-core inflation2
January 16.0 6.1 59.5 18.3 24.5 75.5
February 27.2 7.7 40.9 24.1 37.2 62.8
March 30.1 9.1 37.6 23.2 42.4 57.6
April 30.5 10.3 37.9 21.3 45.7 54.3
May 29.3 11.8 37.2 21.8 46.7 53.3
June 28.6 12.9 38.3 20.2 48.4 51.6
July 29.6 13.5 36.7 20.2 49.7 50.3
August 32.7 16.8 38.5 12.1 55.4 44.6
September 35.7 20.2 39.6 4.5 63.4 36.6
October 36.3 22.4 39.4 2.0 66.7 33.3
November 36.2 22.9 37.8 3.2 67.3 32.7
December 36.5 22.5 36.4 4.5 67.1 32.9
January 13.4 8.3 69.0 9.3 29.5 70.5
February 14.9 9.2 65.3 10.6 31.3 68.7
March 17.8 11.6 58.1 12.5 38.3 61.7
April 19.6 13.5 52.9 14.1 42.8 57.2
May 18.0 14.3 48.3 19.4 41.6 58.4
June 17.6 13.7 42.7 26.0 40.4 59.6
July 22.9 13.9 39.2 23.9 45.8 54.2
August 31.7 16.9 40.8 10.6 58.5 41.5
September 39.3 18.7 37.9 4.1 69.9 30.1
October 46.6 18.6 31.1 3.7 75.4 24.6
November 46.3 19.2 28.8 5.7 74.5 25.5
December 45.7 19.4 27.8 7.2 72.8 27.2
January 18.9 9.3 58.1 13.7 36.2 63.8
February 25.1 12.1 47.9 14.9 46.1 53.9
March 29.7 14.7 39.0 16.6 52.7 47.3
April 33.0 16.5 33.9 16.6 57.0 43.0
May 34.2 17.1 31.1 17.6 58.5 41.5
June 35.2 18.2 30.8 15.7 60.5 39.5
July 37.3 19.9 31.7 11.1 64.4 35.6
August 40.6 21.4 33.0 5.0 70.5 29.5
September 43.0 22.0 33.1 1.9 75.7 24.3
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in calculation of core consumer price index.
36 2008 Q3
Table 7
Contribution to monthly inflation growth
by group of goods and services (%)
Foodstuffs1 Non-food products Paid services Vegetables and fruit Core inflation Non-core inflation2
January 16.0 6.1 59.5 18.3 24.5 75.5
February 43.4 10.0 14.0 32.6 55.8 44.2
March 43.9 15.8 21.6 18.7 67.5 32.5
April 35.8 27.0 41.3 -4.2 90.9 9.1
May 16.1 27.6 29.9 26.4 57.3 42.7
June 15.3 34.9 59.7 -10.0 81.6 18.4
July 37.6 19.0 23.4 20.0 60.9 39.1
August 140.5 132.4 97.9 -270.7 249.5 -149.5
September 269.8 290.1 128.8 -588.7 678.9 -578.9
October 51.0 73.9 34.6 -59.5 145.8 -45.8
November 34.7 29.1 19.3 16.9 74.1 25.9
December 39.6 19.0 23.2 18.2 64.4 35.6
January 13.4 8.3 69.0 9.3 29.5 70.5
February 17.1 10.6 59.7 12.6 34.2 65.8
March 31.4 22.7 24.5 21.4 70.7 29.3
April 30.0 24.6 22.3 23.1 69.6 30.4
May 8.4 19.5 20.6 51.6 34.4 65.6
June 15.8 10.7 17.0 56.5 35.1 64.9
July 55.9 15.7 17.4 10.9 79.2 20.8
August 724.2 250.9 165.2 -1,040.4 1,016.5 -916.5
September 99.9 33.4 14.7 -48.0 160.7 -60.7
October 78.5 18.2 1.2 2.1 99.3 0.7
November 43.6 23.6 13.3 19.5 67.8 32.2
December 39.2 21.6 19.2 20.0 56.7 43.3
January 18.9 9.3 58.1 13.7 36.2 63.8
February 36.8 17.4 28.5 17.3 64.9 35.1
March 43.2 22.6 12.8 21.4 72.2 27.8
April 43.5 22.0 17.6 16.9 70.3 29.7
May 39.1 20.1 18.9 21.9 65.2 34.8
June 42.7 26.5 28.7 2.2 74.5 25.5
July 69.6 47.5 45.8 -62.9 125.6 -25.6
August 122.9 59.3 67.5 -149.7 225.0 -125.0
September 69.7 29.4 34.5 -33.6 136.6 -36.6
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and services not included in calculation of core consumer price index.
Statistical Addendum
2008 Q3 37
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Macroeconomic indicators
GDP
over period since start of year, billion rubles
2006 5,845 12,206 19,487 26,880
2007 6,748 14,497 23,324 32,987
2008 8,838 19,113
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2006 106.3 106.91 107.11 107.4
2007 107.4 107.8 107.6 108.1
2008 108.5 108.0
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2006 106.3 107.4 107.5 108.0
2007 107.4 108.1 107.3 109.5
2008 108.5 107.5
Industrial output indices
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2006 104.1 106.6 106.9 107.5
2007 107.2 107.1 105.5 105.7
2008 106.2 105.5 104.7
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2006 104.1 105.3 105.9 106.3
2007 107.2 107.1 106.6 106.3
2008 106.2 105.8 105.4
Agricultural output
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2006 102.1 101.8 101.4 110.4
2007 103.4 104.3 103.0 103.1
2008 104.5 104.2 108.5
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2006 102.1 101.9 101.6 103.6
2007 103.4 104.0 103.4 103.3
2008 104.5 104.3 106.5
Fixed capital investment
over period since start of year, billion rubles
2006 658.4 1,676.0 2,963.3 4,730.0
2007 916.6 2,365.7 4,129.3 6,626.8
2008 1,295.9 3,256.1 5,598.7
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2006 108.8 117.7 116.1 120.3
2007 122.8 124.2 118.2 120.6
2008 119.1 113.0 109.9
Retail trade turnover
over period since start of year, billion rubles
2006 1,857.2 3,925.3 6,162.6 8,711.9
2007 2,257.3 4,799.2 7,597.6 10,866.2
2008 2,938.4 6,248.5 9,885.6
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2006 111.4 113.6 115.3 115.3
2007 114.7 115.7 116.7 116.7
2008 116.7 114.4 114.4
Federal budget on accrual
basis, as of end of period
revenue
billion rubles
2006 1,399.1 2,938.1 4,561.0 6,278.9
2007 1,421.9 3,245.7 5,087.6 7,781.1
2008 1,932.7 4,370.7 7,155.7
as % of GDP
2006 24.0 24.1 23.4 23.4
2007 21.1 22.4 21.8 23.6
2008 21.9 22.9 23.22
expenditure
billion rubles
2006 823.2 1,854.7 2,866.5 4,284.8
2007 945.6 2,169.7 3,464.3 5,986.6
2008 1,332.7 2,995.6 4,594.2
as % of GDP
2006 14.1 15.2 14.7 16.0
2007 14.0 15.0 14.8 18.2
2008 15.1 15.7 14.92
Federal budget surplus on accrual basis,
as of end of period
billion rubles
2006 575.9 1,083.4 1,694.6 1,994.1
2007 476.3 1,076.1 1,623.2 1,794.6
2008 600.0 1,375.1 2,561.5
as % of GDP
2006 9.9 8.9 8.7 7.4
2007 7.1 7.4 7.0 5.4
2008 6.8 7.2 8.32
Table 8
Russia’s key macroeconomic and financial indicators
Note. T able 8 has been compiled on the basis of data collected by the Bank of Russia, Federal State Statistics Service and Federal
T reasury. Beginning from April 2006, pursuant to Bank of Russia Ordinance No. 1660 U, dated February 17, 2006, interest rates
on credit and deposit operations conducted by banks include data reported by branches of credit institutions.
38 2008 Q3
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Socio-economic indicators
Nominal imputed average
monthly per employee wage
rubles
2006 9,397 10,401 10,949 12,203
2007 11,876 12,993 13,494 15,742
2008 15,424 16,962 17,580
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2006 122.3 125.1 125.1 125.2
2007 127.3 125.9 124.0 129.3
2008 128.0 129.2 129.2
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2006 122.3 123.7 124.1 124.3
2007 127.3 126.6 125.7 127.8
2008 128.0 128.6 128.8
Real imputed average monthly per employee wage, as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2006 110.3 114.3 114.3 114.8
2007 118.2 116.6 113.9 116.1
2008 113.4 112.5 112.4
Household money income (per capita monthly average), rubles
2006 8,200.0 9,933.9 10,253.3 12,316.8
2007 9,901.4 11,953.8 12,700.8 15,604.6
2008 12,345.0 14,824.7 16,093.3
Household real disposable
money income
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2006 109.9 115.5 114.5 113.7
2007 110.0 109.1 111.8 111.0
2008 109.5 106.9 107.1
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2006 109.9 … … 113.5
2007 110.0 109.5 110.4 110.7
2008 109.5 108.2 107.8
Household spending as % of
income
purchase of goods and services
2006 73.1 67.7 71.0 65.6
2007 74.1 69.4 71.3 65.8
2008 76.5 71.6 72.2
compulsory payments and contributions
2006 10.8 10.3 10.4 10.5
2007 12.8 12.4 12.0 13.0
2008 12.7 12.5 13.6
growth in savings
2006 11.1 10.7 8.3 11.3
2007 9.8 8.5 6.8 10.6
2008 7.7 8.2 6.3
purchase of foreign exchange
2006 7.4 7.0 7.2 6.0
2007 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.2
2008 6.9 4.7 5.4
cash on hand
2006 -2.5 4.3 3.2 6.7
2007 -1.9 4.4 4.7 5.4
2008 -3.8 3.0 2.5
Average imputed pension, total, rubles
2006 2,539 2,727 2,800 2,839
2007 2,846 3,091 3,108 3,418
2008 3,823 4,044 4,383
Real imputed pension
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2006 107.8 107.2 103.7 102.5
2007 104.1 104.9 102.0 108.1
2008 119.0 113.9 122.7
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2006 107.8 107.5 106.1 105.1
2007 104.1 104.5 103.6 104.8
2008 119.0 116.4 118.6
Total number of unemployed
(calculated using ILO
methodology)
million
2006 5.7 5.5 5.0 5.0
2007 5.2 4.5 4.3 4.4
2008 5.1 4.2 4.0
as % of economically active population
2006 7.8 7.4 6.7 6.8
2007 7.0 6.0 5.7 5.8
2008 6.7 5.6 5.3
Table 8 (continued)
Statistical Addendum
2008 Q3 39
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Foreign economic activities
Price of Urals crude
over period since start of year, $/barrel
2006 57.7 61.1 62.5 60.9
2007 54.0 59.7 64.0 69.5
2008 93.7 105.3 107.6
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2006 134.0 134.7 126.7 120.9
2007 93.5 97.7 102.4 114.1
2008 173.7 176.3 168.2
Exports of goods
over period since start of year, $ billion
2006 67.3 143.9 223.7 303.6
2007 71.7 155.4 244.9 354.4
2008 110.2 237.3 372.01
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2006 134.1 131.1 128.1 124.5
2007 106.5 108.0 109.5 116.8
2008 153.7 152.7 151.91
Imports of goods
over period since start of year, $ billion
2006 30.9 69.7 112.3 164.3
2007 42.8 95.5 153.9 223.5
2008 60.2 135.4 218.71
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2006 120.1 126.4 128.2 131.0
2007 138.6 137.1 137.0 136.0
2008 140.7 141.7 142.11
Current account (over period since start of year), $ billion
2006 30.4 54.7 78.6 94.3
2007 22.4 36.8 52.3 76.2
2008 37.5 63.6 91.21
Private sector net capital outflow (inflow) (over period since start of year), $ billion
2006 -5.6 15.0 27.4 41.8
2007 13.9 68.4 61.4 83.1
2008 -23.2 17.5 0.81
Foreign investment in non-financial sector
(according to Rosstat data)
over period since start of year, $ billion
2006 8.8 23.4 35.3 55.1
2007 24.6 60.3 87.9 120.9
2008 17.3 46.5 75.8
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2006 146.0 141.9 131.7 102.7
2007 2.8 times 2.6 times 2.5 times 2.2 times
2008 70.1 77.1 86.2
of which:
direct
over period since start of year, $ billion
2006 3.8 6.4 10.3 13.7
2007 9.8 15.8 19.6 27.8
2008 5.6 11.1 19.2
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2006 2.0 times 143.6 155.5 104.6
2007 2.5 times 2.5 times 191.3 2.0 times
2008 57.2 70.0 97.7
portfolio
over period since start of year, $ billion
2006 0.2 0.5 0.7 3.2
2007 0.2 1.1 1.5 4.2
2008 0.1 1.2 1.3
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2006 2.9 times 2.9 times 182.3 7.0 times
2007 85.8 2.2 times 2.3 times 131.8
2008 62.5 104.4 83.7
other
over period since start of year, $ billion
2006 4.7 16.5 24.4 38.2
2007 14.7 43.4 66.7 89.0
2008 11.5 34.3 55.3
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2006 117.2 139.1 122.8 95.3
2007 3.1 times 2.6 times 2.7 times 2.3 times
2008 78.7 79.0 82.8
Russia’s international reserves (as of end of period), $ billion
2006 205.9 250.6 266.2 303.7
2007 338.8 405.8 425.4 478.83
20083 512.6 569.0 556.8
Real ruble exchange rate indices, last month of
quarter (as % of December of previous year)4
ruble vs. US dollar
2006 6.9 10.0 12.1 16.7
2007 2.3 3.8 8.1 15.0
2008 6.5 8.5 3.2
ruble vs. euro
2006 6.5 4.9 6.0 5.6
2007 3.1 4.1 4.5 5.8
2008 0.6 3.4 6.2
effective rate
2006 6.2 7.0 7.9 7.4
2007 2.7 3.3 3.8 5.1
2008 1.5 3.3 3.0
Table 8 (continued)
40 2008 Q3
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Financial market indicators (including Sberbank rates)
Average for period
Overnight interbank credit
rate, % p.a.
in rubles
2006 3.2 2.8 2.6 5.1
2007 3.9 3.4 4.9 5.4
2008 3.9 4.1 6.0
in US dollars
2006 4.4 4.8 5.2 5.2
2007 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.5
2008 3.2 2.2 2.2
OFZ yields5, % p.a.
2006 6.8 6.9 6.8 6.7
2007 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6
2008 6.7 6.9 7.5
Interest rate on household
time deposits, % p.a.
up to 1 year in rubles
2006 8.3 7.9 7.6 7.7
2007 7.4 7.3 7.0 7.2
2008 7.0 7.1 7.5
over 1 year in rubles
2006 7.6 5.2 5.2 5.4
2007 7.9 7.5 7.1 6.8
2008 7.4 8.0 8.5
up to 1 year in US dollars
2006 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.9
2007 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2
2008 5.1 5.8 5.3
over 1 year in US dollars
2006 6.2 4.6 5.0 5.5
2007 6.8 6.6 6.4 7.0
2008 6.9 7.0 7.1
Interest rate on credit to non-
financial organisations, % p.a.
up to 1 year in rubles
2006 10.4 10.6 10.3 10.4
2007 9.9 9.6 9.8 10.7
2008 10.9 11.2 12.0
over 1 year in rubles
2006 12.7 12.7 12.5 12.1
2007 12.1 11.5 11.0 11.4
2008 12.3 12.8 13.6
up to 1 year in US dollars
2006 8.6 8.4 8.6 8.5
2007 8.7 8.8 8.4 9.1
2008 8.1 8.0 8.9
over 1 year in US dollars
2006 10.5 10.2 10.4 10.0
2007 10.3 10.1 9.3 9.8
2008 9.3 9.9 9.4
Interest rate on ruble-denominated promissory notes discounted by banks, % p.a.
2006 12.9 8.7 9.2 9.7
2007 9.5 8.9 10.8 10.8
2008 10.7 11.0 12.1
MICEX rate in ‘tomorrow’ trades, ruble/$
2006 28.0733 27.1897 26.8053 26.5910
2007 26.3056 25.8599 25.5043 24.6525
2008 24.2286 23.6190 24.2718
As of end of quarter
RTS index, points
2006 1,434.99 1,494.63 1,549.99 1,921.92
2007 1,935.72 1,897.70 2,071.80 2,290.51
2008 2,053.93 2,303.34 1,211.84
Refinance rate, % p.a.
2006 12.0 11.5 11.5 11.0
2007 10.5 10.0 10.0 10.0
2008 10.25 10.75 11.00
Table 8 (continued)
Statistical Addendum
2008 Q3 41
Table 8 (end)
Year 1.01 1.04 1.07 1.10
Monetary indicators
M0, billion rubles
2006 2,009.2 1,928.8 2,233.4 2,400.8
2007 2,785.2 2,741.2 3,027.5 3,220.9
2008 3,702.2 3,475.5 3,724.9 3,904.2
M2, billion rubles
2006 6,044.7 6,169.4 7,090.8 7,750.7
2007 8,995.8 9,412.6 10,857.7 11,494.0
2008 13,272.1 13,382.9 14,244.7 14,374.6
Obligations included in broad money, billion rubles6 2007 10,149.4 10,898.4 12,033.4 12,699.7
2008 14,636.7 14,918.3 15,926.6 16,067.82
Net foreign assets, billion rubles6 2007 6,881.5 7,927.4 8,714.1 9,047.0
2008 9,923.1 10,540.8 11,282.4 12,264.32
Domestic claims, billion rubles6 2007 5,799.2 5,798.6 6,331.1 6,771.7
2008 8,325.9 8,437.2 8,760.6 8,614.92
Broad monetary base, billion rubles
2006 2,914.2 2,721.4 3,287.0 3,486.0
2007 4,122.4 4,210.2 5,139.1 4,587.2
2008 5,513.3 4,871.4 5,422.9 5 317.8
Balances of correspondent accounts, billion rubles
2006 508.6 320.0 430.9 443.7
2007 638.1 518.1 528.7 576.3
2008 802.2 596.3 592.4 702.9
M2 velocity
annual average
2006 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.0
2007 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2
2008 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.02
change since start of year, %
2006 -6.57 -1.4 -4.8 -8.3
2007 -13.27 -6.1 -12.2 -16.3
2008 -18.87 -2.7 -2.9 -1.92
Monetisation of the economy (by M2 aggregate), %
2006 22.7 23.0 23.8 24.7
2007 26.1 27.8 29.8 31.2
2008 32.2 33.1 33.1 32.82
Money multiplier
by broad money
2006 2.07 2.27 2.16 2.23
2007 2.18 2.24 2.11 2.51
2008 2.41 2.75 2.63 2.70
change since start of year, %
2006 13.27 9.3 4.0 7.3
2007 5.27 2.5 -3.2 14.8
2008 10.37 14.1 9.1 12.3
Foreign exchange rates
rubles per US dollar
2006 28.78 27.70 26.94 26.78
2007 26.33 26.01 25.82 24.95
2008 24.55 23.50 23.41 25.37
rubles per euro
2006 34.19 33.63 34.24 33.98
2007 34.70 34.69 34.72 35.35
2008 35.93 37.09 36.97 36.50
1 Estimate.
2 Preliminary data.
3 According to a new accounting methodology.
4 (+) signifies appreciation of the ruble, (-) signifies depreciation of the ruble.
5 OFZ effective market portfolio indicator.
6 Presented in new format in compliance with requirements of the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual (IMF, 2000).
7 Relative to beginning of previous year.
42 2008 Q3
Table 9
Bank of Russia interest rates in 2008 (% p.a.)
Instrument Liquidity infusion/absorption
period
01.07.08 -
13.07.08
14.07.08 -
17.09.08
18.09.08 -
14.10.08
15.10.08 -
19.10.08
20.10.08 -
23.10.08
24.10.08 -
31.10.08
Providing liquidity at offered bids (including by auction)
Repo operations1
1 day 6.75 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
1 week 7.25 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5
3 months — — — 8.5 8.5 8.5
Currency-swap operations2 1 day — — — — 10.0 10.0
Unsecured loans1
5 weeks — — — — 8.5 9.5
3 months — — — — — 9.75
Lombard loans1,3
2 weeks 7.75 8.0 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5
3 months — — — — 8.5 8.5
Providing liquidity at fixed rates
Overnight loans3,4 1 day 10.75 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0
Lombard loans3
1 day 8.75 9.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
7 days5 8.75 9.0 9.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
30 days — — — — 8.0 8.0
Repo operations
1 day 8.75 9.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
1 week 7.75 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
Currency-swap operations 1 day 8.75 9.0 8.0 10.0 — —
Loans secured by ‘non-market’ assets4
Up to 30 days 9.75 10.0 9.5 9.0 9.0 9.0
31 to 90 days — — — — 9.0 9.0
Loans against promissory notes, credit claims and bank
guarantees6
91 to 180 days 7.75 8.0 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5
от 91 до 180 дней 8.75 9.0 8.5 8.5 8.25 8.25
Absorbing liquidity at fixed rates
Deposit operations
'Tom-next, 'spot-next' and 'call' 3.5 3.75 3.75 4.25 4.25 4.75
'1 week, 'spot-week' 4.0 4.25 4.25 4.75 4.75 5.25
1 Minimum offered interest rate.
2 Interest rate set on the ruble part when determining the minimum offered swap difference.
3 Pursuant to Bank of Russia Regulation No. 236-P of August 4, 2003.
4 Pursuant to Bank of Russia Regulation No. 312-P of November 12, 2007.
5 If two consecutive Lombard auctions have been declared invalid. Otherwise set at average weighted Lombard auction rate.
6 Pursuant to Bank of Russia Regulation No. 273-P of July 14, 2005.
Statistical Addendum
2008 Q3 43
Table 10
Credit institutions’ required reserve ratios (%)
Required reserve ratio for bank obligations
to non-resident banks in Russian and
foreign currency
Required reserve ratio for obligations to
individuals in Russian currency
Required reserve ratio for other bank
obligations in Russian and foreign currency
July 1, 2007—October 10, 2007 4.5 4.0 4.5
October 11, 2007—January 14, 2008 3.5 3.0 3.5
January 15, 2008—February 29, 2008 4.5 4.0 4.5
March 1, 2008—June 30, 2008 5.5 4.5 5.0
July 1, 2008—August 31, 2008 7.0 5.0 5.5
September 1, 2008—September 17, 2008 8.5 5.5 6.0
September 18, 2008—October 14, 2008 4.5 1.5 2.0
October 15, 2008—January 31, 2009 0.5 0.5 0.5
February 1, 2009—February 28, 2009 1.5 1.5 1.5
March 1, 2009--- 2.5 2.5 2.5
© The Central Bank of the Russian Federation, 2008
Research and Information Department