NBP MPC Press Release - 2015-02-04
Central bank: nbp | Type: decision | Date: 2015-02-04

Warsaw, 4 February 2015 
 
Information from the meeting of the Monetary Policy 
Council held on 3-4 February 2015 
 
The Council has decided to keep the NBP interest rates unchanged at: 
 reference rate at 2.00% on an annual basis; 
 lombard rate at 3.00% on an annual basis; 
 deposit rate at 1.00% on an annual basis; 
 rediscount rate at 2.25% on an annual basis. 
 
Global economic activity growth remains moderate, although the situation varies 
across countries. In the United States GDP growth in 2014 Q4 stayed relatively robust 
compared to most developed economies , and the economic outlook is still positive. In 
turn, in the euro area, which is Po land’s main trading partner, activity growth has 
continued to be weak and the incoming information signal a merely slow recovery in the 
subsequent quarters. Similarly, in the largest emerging economies, including China, 
economic activity has also remained weak as for these countries, with growth in Russia 
decreasing close to zero. 
In the past month, oil prices have fallen again, accompanied by a decline in the 
prices of some other commodities. Along with moderate global economic growth, this 
has been pulling down inflation in many countries. In Poland's immediate environment - 
including the euro area and most of the Central and Eastern European countries - the 
annual price growth has declined below zero. The fall of commodity prices may support 
economic growth in countries which are net commodities’ importers. 
Major central banks are keeping their interest rates at a historically low levels . At the 
same time, the European Central Bank has expanded its asset purchase programme 
significantly, adding sovereign bonds to the range of instruments targeted. The Swiss 
National Bank, in turn, unexpectedly abolished the Swiss franc's asymmetric peg to the 
euro, which resulted in its sharp appreciation vis -a-vis other currencies, including the 
zloty. The SNB also decreased its policy interest rates. 
In Poland, preliminary national accounts data for 2014 indicate that GDP growth 
decreased slightly in 2014 Q4, remaining above 3%. Stable growth in consumption was 
accompanied by some weakening in investment growth. At the same time, imports 
growth slowed down more than that of exports, thus reducing the negative contribution 
of net exports to GDP growth. In December, growth in industrial output, construction 
and assembly output and retail sales picked up. 
Bank lending both to households and enterprises continues to rise at a steady rate. At 
the same time, the sharp appreciation of the Swiss franc has increas ed the indebtedness 
of households with liabilities in this currency, which may limit their consumption. 
 
 
Labour market data point to a further decline of unemployment (in seasonally 
adjusted terms) resulting to a large extent from rising corporate employment. Yet, wage 
pressure in the corporate sector remains limited, as indicated by continued moderate 
wage growth. 
In December, CPI inflation fell to -1.0% y/y, lower than expected. This was 
accompanied by a further decrease in most core inflation indices, whi ch confirms the 
absence of demand pressure in the economy. At the same time, the decline in producer 
prices deepened, pointing in turn to the lack of cost pressure. Inflation expectations of 
enterprises and households remain very low. 
Taking into account t he recently heightened volatility in the financial markets, the 
Council has decided to leave the NBP interest rates unchanged. However, the Council 
does not rule out a monetary policy adjustment in the nearest future, should the 
expected period of deflatio n be extended, which would increase the risk of inflation 
remaining below the target in the medium term. A more comprehensive assessment of 
the outlook for inflation returning to the target will be possible after the Council gets 
acquainted with the incoming information, including the March NBP projection.