CBR Quarterly Inflation Review - Q1 2010
Central bank: cbr | Type: quarterly_review | Date: 2010-03-31

THE CENTRAL BANK
OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
(BANK OF RUSSIA)
Quarterly
Inflation
Review
2010 Q1
Research and Information Department
The electronic version of Quarterly Inflation Review is available on the Bank of Russia's website :

Contents
Introduction. .................................................................................................................3
Inflation.Dynamics. ........................................................................................................4
Consumer Prices ....................................................................................................................... 4
Prices at market of dwellings ....................................................................................................... 6
Producer prices ......................................................................................................................... 6
Foreign trade ............................................................................................................................ 8
Demand ................................................................................................................................. 11
Supply .................................................................................................................................... 13
Labour market ......................................................................................................................... 14
Monetary.Conditions...................................................................................................16
Exchange rate ......................................................................................................................... 16
Interest rates ........................................................................................................................... 18
Asset prices ............................................................................................................................ 22
Monetary aggregates ............................................................................................................... 22
Credit aggregates .................................................................................................................... 24
Statistical.Addendum.................................................................................................. 27
2010 Q1 3
Introduction
The Russian economy was gradually recover-
ing in January-March 2010 after a steep decline
in 2009. Output was registered to grow in many
types of the economic activity. However , invest -
ment activity remained low. Consumer demand
was also recovering slowly, although household
real money incomes showed high growth rates.
Total GDP remained below its potential level.
The improved terms of trade, which increased
exports considerably, played an important role in
maintaining economic growth in January-March
2010. This process was accompanied by the
appreciation of the ruble and the growth of the
country’s gold and foreign exchange reserves.
The trend of the slowing of inflation, which
began in the second quarter of 2009, continued
in January-March 2010. This process was attrib -
uted to the persisting negative output gap and
the ruble appreciation. Consumer prices in Jan -
uary-March 2010 registered the lowest growth
rates for this period since 1999. According to es-
timates, inflation will be lower as a whole over the
year than the level set by the guidelines of Russia’s
single state monetary policy for 2010.
The appreciation of the ruble, the slowing
of inflation and the increase in economic activity
stimulated the rise of the demand for the national
currency and the resumption of growth in money
supply. From the fourth quarter of 2009, the ruble
supply (M2) on average started to demonstrate
growth rates equalling their pre-crisis level. At the
end of the first quarter of 2010, money supply
on the whole matched the emerging demand for
money. The persisting high rates of money sup -
ply growth may eventually form a steady positive
monetary gap and create the risk of inflation ac -
celeration.
The increase in net credit to the government
and the growth of the Bank of Russia’s net foreign
assets were the main sources of the expansion
of money supply in January-March 2010. The
banks’ credit activity in creating money supply re-
mained low and the money multiplier decreased
over the first quarter. Despite the growth of ag -
gregate bank reserves, banks were unwilling to
expand their credit portfolio and preferred build -
ing up alternative types of assets. Besides, growth
in lending was still restrained by the low demand
for loans as economic activity failed to demon -
strate sufficiently rapid recovery rates.
As inflation tended to slow down, the Bank
of Russia continued to reduce interest rates on its
operations to make credit resources more afford-
able. The easing of monetary policy combined
with the growth of bank liquidity amid the favour-
able foreign economic situation contributed to the
overall decrease in interest rates on financial mar-
kets; however , its effect on the volume of credit
was insignificant.
Considering positive trends forming in the
economy, the growth of bank liquidity, the in -
crease in the banks’ sustainability and the reduc -
tion of systemic risks, the Bank of Russia gradually
started to cut the volume of refinancing through
unsecured loans initially used as an anti-crisis
measure and stimulate banks to use traditional
credit instruments.
4 2010 Q1
er price growth as against 3.5 percentage points,
or 64.0%, in January-March 2009.
Food prices, excluding vegetables and
fruit prices , grew by 2.3% in January-March
2010 as against 4.0% in the first quarter of
2009. Growth in the prices of this group of food
products accounted for an estimated 0.8 percent-
age points, or 25.2%, of overall consumer price
growth in the first quarter of 2010 as against an
estimated 1.4 percentage points, or 25.3%, in
the first quarter of 2009.
The most significant increase in food prices,
excluding vegetables and fruit, in the first quarter
of 2010 was registered in the prices of eggs, which
grew by 12.7% (the prices of eggs decreased by
8.5% in January-March 2009) and the prices of
Inflation Dynamics
Consumer Prices
According to the Federal State Statistics Ser -
vice (Rosstat), consumer prices rose by 3.2% in
January-March 2010 which is 2.2 percentage
points less as compared with the same period of
2009. Year on year , consumer prices increased by
6.5% in March 2010 and by 7.2% in January-
March 2010.
Inflation slowed down in January-March
2010 largely due to core inflation , which
equalled 1.5% in the first quarter of 2010 as
against 4.3% in the same period a year earlier.
Growth in the prices of goods and services in -
cluded in the core inflation calculation in the first
quarter of 2010 accounted for an estimated 1.2
percentage points, or 37.4%, of overall consum-
Consumer price inflation (%)
Growth (March 2010
on December 2009)
Growth (March 2009
on December 2008)
Prices of goods and services, total: 3.2 5.4 Slowing of growth by 2.2 percentage points
of which:
– foodstuffs 3.8 5.0 Slowing of growth by 1.2 percentage points
– foodstuffs, excluding vegetables and fruit 2.3 4.0 Slowing of growth by 1.7 percentage points
– non-food goods 0.9 3.8 Slowing of growth by 2.9 percentage points
– market services rendered to population 5.4 8.5 Slowing of growth by 3.1 percentage points
Prices of goods and services included in core inflation calculation 1.5 4.3 Slowing of growth by 2.8 percentage points
Source: Rosstat.
Inflation Dynamics
2010 Q1 5
granulated sugar , which increased by 10.0% (as
compared with 28.7% in the same period last
year). Growth in the prices of most of other basic
groups of food products (bread and bakery prod-
ucts, groats and beans, meat and poultry, fish and
sea products, alcoholic beverages) was slower in
January-March 2010 than in the same period of
2009. The prices of pasta products decreased by
0.7% whereas in the first quarter of 2009 they
increased by 3.7%.
Vegetables and fruit headline prices in -
creased by 18.0% in the first quarter of 2010
or 3.3 percentage points more than in the same
period of 2009. Growth in vegetables and fruit
prices in January-March 2010 accounted for an
estimated 0.6 percentage points (20.6%) of the
headline inflation. In the first quarter of 2009,
growth in vegetables and fruit prices accounted
for 0.5 percentage points, or 9.7%, of overall
consumer price growth.
Overall, food prices increased by 3.8% in
January-March 2010 as compared with 5.0% in
the same period last year.
Growth in non-food prices decelerated
considerably in January-March 2010, slowing to
0.9% in the reporting period as compared with
3.8% in the same period a year earlier. The in -
crease in non-food prices accounted for an esti -
mated 0.3 percentage points or 10.4% of overall
consumer price growth in January-March 2010 as
compared with 1.4 percentage points or 26.1%
in the first quarter of 2009. The biggest growth
was registered in the prices of tobacco products
(4.9% as compared with 6.3% in January-March
2009). The growth in the prices of fabrics, cloth-
ing, knitwear and footwear was moderate (up to
1.7%). The prices of motor petrol and medicines
dropped by 0.6% and 1.4%, respectively (in
January-March 2009, motor petrol prices fell by
8.1% while the prices of medicines increased by
14.2%).
The prices for market services rendered
to population grew by 5.4% in January-March
2010 as against 8.5% in January-March 2009
and accounted for an estimated 1.4 percent -
age points, or 43.9%, of overall consumer price
growth (2.1 percentage points, or 38.9% of the
headline inflation in the first quarter of 2009).
Administered prices of services grew by an
estimated 9.8% in January-March 2010 or 2.1
percentage points slower than in the same peri -
od last year. Housing and public utility prices rose
by 11.5% in the first quarter of 2010 as against
17.0% in January-March 2009. Passenger trans-
port fees grew by 3.5% in the first quarter of
2010 as against 4.3% in January-March 2009.
There was a slowing of growth in the prices
of all major services included in the core inflation
calculation in January-March 2010. The prices
of foreign travel services went down by 3.9% in
the first quarter of 2010 (they grew by 12.3% in
January-March 2009).
Growth in the prices of market services ren -
dered to population in January-March 2009
Food price inflation (%)
Growth (March 2010
on December 2009)
Growth (March 2009
on December 2008)
Food products 3.8 5.0 Slowing of growth by 1.2 percentage points
Bread and bakery products 0.6 1.3 Slowing of growth by 0.7 percentage points
Groats and beans 2.4 3.9 Slowing of growth by 1.5 percentage points
Pasta products -0.7 3.7 –
Meat and poultry 0.0 3.6 Slowing of growth by 3.6 percentage points
Fish and sea products 1.7 8.0 Slowing of growth by 6.3 percentage points
Milk and dairy products 3.6 1.2 Acceleration of growth by 2.4 percentage points
Butter 5.2 1.4 Acceleration of growth by 3.8 percentage points
Sunflower oil 1.3 -7.1 –
Granulated sugar 10.0 28.7 Slowing of growth by 18.7 percentage points
Vegetables and fruit 18.0 14.7 Acceleration of growth by 3.3 percentage points
Alcoholic beverages 3.7 3.9 Slowing of growth by 0.2 percentage points
Source: Rosstat.
6 2010 Q1
exceeded by 3.0 percentage points the overall
growth in the prices of goods (4.1 percentage
points in January-March 2009).
According to Rosstat data, consumer price
growth in all federal districts in January-March
2010 was smaller than in the same period last
year.
Estimates show that the difference between
the Russian regions in terms of the price of the
fixed set of goods and services used by the Federal
State Statistics Service for interregional compari -
sons of the purchasing power of the population
narrowed in March 2010. Specifically, the region-
al difference ratio1 decreased to 42.3% in March
2010 from 43.1% in December 2009.
The rates of growth in food prices, exclud -
ing vegetables and fruit prices, ranged from
1.9% to 2.7% in the federal districts in January-
March 2010. The rates of non-food price growth
changed within the range of 0.6-1.4%.
The gap between the regions in terms of the
rates of growth in vegetables and fruit prices (in -
cluding potatoes) was wide. In the Far East Feder-
al District, for example, vegetables and fruit prices
grew by 8.4% in January-March 2010, whereas
in the South Federal District they increased by
22.6%.
In all the federal districts, the growth in the
prices of market services rendered to population
1 The regional difference ratio is calculated by the Bank of
Russia as the difference between the price of the fixed set of
goods and services in the most and least expensive regions
relative to the national average cost of the set.
in January-March 2010 was considerably slower
than in the same period a year earlier.
Prices at market of dwellings
Prices at the primary market of dwellings in -
creased by 0.5% and by 1.0% at the secondary
market in January-March 2010. In the same pe -
riod of 2009, prices fell by 2.2% at the primary
market of dwellings and by 2.8% at the second -
ary market.
Prices at market of dwellings in January-
March 2010 were influenced by some rebound
on the real estate market amid the contraction in
housing construction. Specifically, the commis -
sioning of residential buildings in January-March
2010 contracted by 8.3% as compared with the
same period of 2009 whereas it grew by 2.4% a
year earlier.
Producer prices
Producer prices in production of industrial
goods rose by 2.7% in January-March 2010 as
against 4.4% in January-March 2009. The slow-
ing of growth in producer prices was largely at -
tributable to the decrease in prices in mining and
quarrying of natural minerals, which fell by 2.6%
in January-March 2010 whereas in the same pe-
riod of 2009 they grew by 8.5%. Producer pric -
es in mining and quarrying of energy producing
materials dropped by 3.2% in the first quarter of
2010 (in January-March 2009, they increased by
11.7%).
Inflation Dynamics
2010 Q1 7
a year earlier). There was a slowing of growth
in consumer goods producer prices. Specifically,
producer price growth in the manufacture of food
products, beverages and tobacco products de -
clined by 2.5 percentage points in January-March
2010 year on year to 0.9%; producer prices in the
manufacture of textile and textile products slowed
by 2.8 percentage points to 1.4%. Producer pric-
es in the production of leather and leather goods,
footwear declined by 1.2% (they grew by 0.1%
in January-March 2009).
Tariffs for cargo transportation increased
by 21.9% in January-March 2010 as against
2.9% in the same period of 2009. Tariffs for
cargo railway transportation went up by 9.4% as
against 4.7% a year earlier.
Tariffs for communication services ren -
dered to corporate entities grew by 4.6% in
January-March 2010 as against 2.6% in the first
quarter of 2009.
Producer prices for construction products
edged up by 0.6% in the first quarter of 2010
(they dropped by 1.3% in the same period of
2009).
Producer prices for agricultural products
grew by 4.3% in January-March 2010 as against
0.9% in the same period last year. Prices for plant-
growing products increased by 5.2% as com -
pared with 1.9% in January-March 2009. At the
same time, cereals and pulses prices went down
by 0.3% while sunflower prices grew by 12.1%
(in January-March 2009, cereals and sunflower
producer prices decreased by 0.3% and 5.4%,
Price growth in the production and supply
of electricity, gas and water slowed down by 5.5
percentage points to 12.6% in January-March
2010 as compared with the same period last year.
Producer prices in the manufacturing grew
by 3.8% in January-March 2010, a rise of 2.5
percentage points on the previous year. The most
significant price growth was registered in the
manufacture of coke where prices increased by
19.5% (they fell by 18.1% in January-March
2009) and manufacture of chemicals, chemi -
cal products (13.0% as compared with 1.1%
in January-March 2009). Producer prices in the
manufacture of refined petroleum demonstrated
a moderate growth as they increased by 2.9% in
January-March 2010 (10.1% in the same period
8 2010 Q1
prove in January-March 2010. World market en-
ergy prices increased by about a third in the first
quarter of 2010 as compared with the same pe -
riod last year (in the first quarter of 2009, they
were 40% lower than in the same period a year
earlier).
The trend towards growth in world oil pric -
es, which was registered in 2009, continued in
January-March 2010. The major factors of oil
price growth were the consistent upgrades of oil
demand forecasts as production started to grow
in some countries of the world and the Chinese
economy continued to expand. In addition, the
world oil market was influenced by the US dollar
dynamics against other major world currencies,
which impacted the dollar-denominated prices
of commodities and made commodity markets
increasingly attractive for speculative and invest -
ment capital. Weather conditions also contributed
to the price growth in the first months of the year.
respectively). Producer prices for livestock prod -
ucts went up by 3.8% (0.3% in January-March
2009). The most rapid growth was registered in
egg producer prices, which increased by 15.6%,
and milk producer prices, which went up by
10.8% (in the first quarter of 2009, egg and milk
producer prices declined by 11.4% and 2.4%, re-
spectively). Cattle and poultry prices dropped by
2.5% (in January-March 2009, they increased by
4.2%).
Foreign trade
The price situation for major Russian export
commodities2 on world markets continued to im-
2 Average prices have been calculated on the basis of data
provided daily by the following news agencies and exchang-
es: Reuters for oil, The Financial Times for petroleum products
(petrol, diesel fuel and fuel oil) and the London Metal Ex -
change for non-ferrous metals (aluminium, copper and nick-
el). Ferrous metal price indices and data on average monthly
prices of natural gas and other goods were provided by the
World Bank and the IMF .
Inflation in countries trading with Russia1
Inflation in the countries accounting for a substantial portion of Russian imports equaled 1.4% in January-
March 2010 (March against December of the previous year) and was the same as in the first quarter of 2009.
Inflation pressure in most countries trading with Russia increased in January-March 2010 as compared with the
same period last year but this increase was insignificant and some countries registered a slowing of inflation.
Higher inflation pressure in the economies of Russia’s large trading partners, such as Germany and Turkey, was
compensated by slower inflation in the economies of Belarus and Ukraine also accounting for substantial por -
tions in the geographical structure of Russia’s foreign trade.
Inflation rates in the economies of European
countries trading with Russia were largely affected
by the growth of energy prices in the first quarter of
2010 (in January-March 2009, energy prices were
observed to decline). As in the first quarter of 2009,
the prices of goods and services included in the core
inflation calculation (which excludes changes in the
volatile energy and food prices) showed some de -
crease in January-March 2010. Slower core inflation
in the United States decelerated headline inflation in
the first quarter of 2010 as compared with the same
period a year earlier.
Therefore, inflation pressure in the leading in -
dustrialized nations did not increase as a whole at the
initial stage after the end of the recession; however,
inflation rates were affected by the growth of energy
prices. The growth of consumer prices in the coun -
tries trading with Russia was restrained by a relatively
insignificant increase in tariffs for housing and pub-
lic utility as well as for transportation in Belarus and
Ukraine at the start of 2010.
1 According to data reported by national statistics agencies of Russia’s trading partners.
Inflation Dynamics
2010 Q1 9
As a result, the price of Urals crude rose by
73.7% in January-March 2010 year on year to
$75.0 per barrel (in the first quarter of 2009, it
was lower by 53.9% than a year earlier).
Oil price dynamics affected the prices of pe -
troleum products. Petroleum product prices were
on average almost 70% higher in the first quarter
of 2010 as compared with the same period last
year , with petrol prices rising by 75.1%, fuel oil
prices increasing by 87.8% and diesel fuel prices
growing by 49.4% (in the first quarter of 2009,
the prices of these petroleum products were lower
by 51.1%, 46.5% and 51.9%, respectively).
The recovery of natural gas prices in Europe,
which started in August 2009, continued in Jan -
uary-March 2010; however , these prices grew
considerably slower than oil prices. As a result,
natural gas prices on the European market were
down by 26.0% in January-March 2010 as com-
pared with the same period last year (they were
higher by 10.0% in the first quarter of 2009 than
in the same period a year earlier).
The growth in world coal prices, which
started in the second half of 2009, accelerated
in January-March 2010 (they grew by 22.6% in
Q1 2010 as compared with 7.3% and 8.9% in
the previous two quarters). As a result, coal prices
were higher by 32.3% in the first quarter of 2010
as compared with the same period last year (coal
prices were down by 36.9% in January-March
2009 as compared with the same period a year
earlier).
The gradual recovery of the world demand
for steel along with the increase in the prices of
raw materials (iron ore) stimulated the growth
of ferrous metals prices, which began in 2010.
However , ferrous metals prices were lower by
23.0% in January-March 2010 than in the same
period last year (they increased by 19.6% in the
first quarter of 2009 as compared with the same
period a year earlier).
The growth of non-ferrous metals prices,
which started in the second quarter of 2009,
continued in January-March 2010. Non-ferrous
metals prices grew in the first quarter of 2010 as
a result of the expansion of industrial demand,
especially from China, increased purchases by
South Korea to replenish its stocks, and also due
to investment demand for non-ferrous metals. An
additional factor of the growth of copper prices
was an earthquake that struck Chile (the world’s
largest copper exporter) in February this year and
brought about a fifth of the country’s copper pro-
duction capacities to a halt for some time. The
growth of aluminium and copper prices slowed
to about 8% in the first quarter of 2010 (from
23% and 12%, respectively, in the previous two
quarters) while nickel prices started to grow again
as they increased by 14% after a slight decrease
in the fourth quarter of 2009. As a result, the
price of aluminium increased by 60%, copper by
110% and nickel by 90% in the first quarter of
2010 as compared with the same period last year
(in January-March 2009, these prices fell by 2.0,
2.3 and 2.7 times year on year).
The price dynamics of other raw materi -
als exported by Russia were also affected by the
global economic situation and the state of world
commodity markets. In January-March 2010, the
growth of timber prices resumed while the prices
of mineral fertilizer continued to fall as a result of
the contraction in world demand.
Food and agricultural raw products prices
dynamics3 were different on world markets in the
first quarter of 2010. Sugar prices reached their
highest level in January 2010 but declined rapidly
in February and March. A major factor affecting
3 Average sugar prices have been calculated on the basis of
data provided daily by the London Commodity Exchange,
other prices are monthly averages published by the World
Bank and the IMF .
10 2010 Q1
of estimates on carryover grain reserves, the fore-
casts of good maize harvests, the emergence of
Kazakhstan as a large supplier on the world grain
market and the increase of grain supplies from
Turkey. Rice prices were observed to fall in the first
quarter of 2010 amid the continued rice-harvest-
ing in Asian countries, considerable world stocks
and the low demand for rice. As compared to the
previous quarter , in January-March 2010, the
price of US wheat fell by 4.8% and US maize by
3.0%, and the prices of Canadian wheat and bar-
ley went down by 1.6% and 1.3%, respectively,
while the price of Thai rice slipped by 1.1%. As a
result, the prices of US wheat and maize declined
by 15.6% and 2.5%, respectively, and the price
of Canadian wheat decreased by 13.3% in Janu-
ary-March 2010 year on year (in the first quarter
of 2009, the prices of these grains were down by
43.8%, 24.3% and 48.2%, correspondingly). In
January-March 2010, rice prices were lower by
8.5% than a year earlier (they were by 22.6%
higher in the first quarter of 2009 as compared
with the same period of the previous year), while
the price of Canadian barley increased by 23.5%
(it fell by 46.6% in January-March 2009 from a
year earlier).
While the largest meat consumers were
gradually exiting from the economic crisis and the
situation in their economies improved, the con -
traction in the world’s cattle population and the
persisting high level of beef consumption in Asian
countries (first of all, in China), and also the rise
the world sugar market was an upward revision of
the forecasts of sugar beet harvests in India in the
2009 / 2010 agricultural year. In addition, the sit-
uation on the world sugar market was aggravated
by the importers’ desire to revise contracts on the
purchase of sugar at high prices. In particular , In-
dian processing enterprises refused to purchase
100,000 tonnes of raw sugar , which created the
risk of the non-fulfilment of contracts on a large
scale. Although sugar prices dropped by 4-5% in
February and 23-26% in March, they remained
high on the world market. In January-March
2010, the prices of raw sugar increased by 9.3%
and refined sugar by 13.4% quarter on quarter ,
and by 100% and 80%, respectively, year on year
(in January-March 2009, raw and white sugar
prices increased by 1.6% and 13.1%, respec -
tively, as compared with the same period a year
earlier).
Vegetable oil prices continued to grow on
world markets in the first quarter of 2010. The
prices of palm oil increased by 10.3% in January-
March 2010 quarter on quarter and by 39.9%
year on year amid the expected contraction in
output in Malaysia, the world’s largest palm oil
exporter (the prices of palm oil fell by 50.1% in
January-March 2009 as compared with the same
period a year earlier).
The prices of grain crops were largely ob -
served to decline in the second half of 2009 and
in the first quarter of 2010 amid the accumulation
of considerable world grain stocks, the upgrade
Inflation Dynamics
2010 Q1 11
in fodder prices resulting from China’s increased
demand for fodder , caused a growth in livestock
prices. The growth of world poultry prices, on
the contrary, was restrained by the expansion of
poultry production in Brazil and China and the de-
velopment of domestic poultry output in Russia
to replace imports. In January-March 2010, the
growth of beef and pork prices accelerated while
poultry prices increased slightly. Quarter on quar-
ter , the price of beef increased by 14.9%, pork
by 22.6% and poultry by 1.2% in the first quar -
ter of 2010. Year on year , the price of beef grew
by 28.1% and pork by 19.9% while the price of
poultry went down by 3.6% in January-March
2010 (in the first quarter of 2009, the price of
beef dropped by 13.1%, while the price of pork
rose by 6.1% and poultry by 9.2%).
Russia’s terms of trade improved in January-
March 2010 as compared with the same period
last year. The terms of trade index is estimated at
1.16 as compared with 0.59 in the first quarter
of 2009.
Russia’s foreign trade surplus4 grew by 140%
to $46.0 billion in January-March 2010 year on
year , with exports growing faster (by 60%) than
imports (by 20%).
Demand
Domestic demand
The contraction of domestic demand slowed
considerably in the first quarter of 2010. Con -
sumer spending increased and the reduction of
investment activity slowed significantly.
The rise in wages and the considerable in -
crease in pensions amid slower inflation signifi -
cantly accelerated the growth of household real
disposable money income, which went up by
7.6% in January-March 2010 as compared with
0.7% in the same period last year. The house -
holds propensity to consume was lower in the first
quarter of 2010 as compared with the same pe -
riod a year earlier. In overall households expendi-
tures, the share of household purchase of goods
and services dropped by 3.6 percentage points to
72.8% in January-March 2010 and the share of
purchases of foreign exchange decreased by 7.1
percentage points to 3.2%. The households pro -
pensity for organised savings stood at 15.8% in
the first quarter of 2010 (8.7% in January-March
4 According to a balance of payments as of April 2, 2010.
International trade
In the estimate of the International Energy Agency, world oil consumption increased 2.3% in January-
March 2010 year on year largely due to the growth of consumption in Asian economies whereas in European
countries it contracted by 5.4%. The average price of Brent, Dubai and WTI crude blends increased to $77.1 per
barrel in January-March 2010 from $44.1 per barrel in January-March 2009 (by 74.7%).
According to Eurostat’s data, the import volumes of oil and petroleum products decreased in the EU coun-
tries in the first two months of 2010 as compared with the same period a year earlier, whereas the average level
of prices of EU oil and petroleum products imports was 30% higher as a result of growth in oil and petroleum
product prices on the world market. The contract price of natural gas Russia exported to Germany in January-
March 2010 was on average by more than 45.5% lower than in the corresponding quarter of 2009.
According to a forecast by the International Energy Agency, world oil consumption will grow 2.0% in 2010
but is expected to decrease 0.7% in the European economies. According to a forecast issued by the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) in April 2010, the average price of the world’s three oil blends will equal $80 per barrel in
2010 or 29.5% higher than the average level registered in 2009. The IMF predicts international trade in goods
and services to rise 7.0% in 2010 after its contraction by 10.7% in 2009.
12 2010 Q1
2009), in which deposits and securities account-
ed for 6.4%.
Final consumption expenditure of house -
holds declined by 7.7% in 2009. Consumer ex -
penditures increased by 1.1% in real terms in
January-March 2010 as compared with the same
period a year earlier largely due to growth in the
purchase of food products. Retail trade turnover
expanded by 1.3% in January-March 2010 year
on year while the value of market services ren -
dered to population shrank by 0.9%.
The share of import acquisitions in the retail
trade commodity resources decreased by 3 per -
centage points in 2009 as compared with 2008
and stood at 41%. The share of imported food
products was unchanged at 33%.
The imports of consumer goods, especially
food products, started to increase gradually amid
recovery in consumer demand in the first quarter
of 2010. The imports of investment goods grew
insignificantly. The imports of goods expanded
largely through import quantities while import
prices increased insignificantly. So far , there are
no risks of the acceleration of price growth posed
by imported inflation. The imports of goods in -
creased by 17.8% in January-March 2010 as
compared with the same period a year earlier.
Government final consumption expendi -
ture increased by 2% in 2009. According to the
Federal Treasury’s data, federal budget expen -
ditures grew to 22.8% of GDP in the first quar -
ter of 2010 as against 21.0% in January-March
2009. Non-interest expenditures stood at 22.0%
of GDP (20.2% in January-March 2009). This
represents the highest ratio in a decade and it is
attributable to increased inter-budgetary trans -
fers, and also to the improved administration of
budget expenditures. As a result, budget expen -
ditures were spread increasingly evenly through -
out the financial year: federal budget non-interest
expenditures in January-March 2010 accounted
for 22.2% of the budget plan for 2010 (19.2%
in the same period a year earlier).
In January-March 2010, Russia registered a
federal budget deficit of 2.5% of GDP , which rep-
resents an increase by 2.1 percentage points as
compared with the same period a year earlier. De-
spite the reduction of the federal budget balance,
Russia plans to tighten its fiscal policy in 2010 and
in the medium-term forecast period, as the na -
tional economy recovers, to increase the sustain -
ability of public finances.
Gross capital formation contracted by 37.4%
in 2009. Investment activity continued to decline
in the first quarter of 2010, although at a slower
pace than a year earlier. The contraction in fixed
capital investment is partly attributable to the re -
duction of output in the construction sector due
to uncertainty on the real estate market and limit-
ed financial resources, as a result of which most of
planned projects were put on hold. Fixed capital
investment was observed to increase (by 0.7%)
GDP components
(growth as % of corresponding period of previous year)
2007 2008 2009
GDP 8.1 5.6 -7.9
Final consumption 11.1 8.6 -5.1
of which:
– households 13.9 10.8 -7.7
Gross capital formation 21 10.5 -37.4
Net exports -27.2 -35.5 56.8
Source: Rosstat.
Inflation Dynamics
2010 Q1 13
in March 2010 year on year (for the first time
since November 2008). A major factor contribut-
ing to the increase in investment activity was the
improvement of the financial position of enter -
prises.
Machinery, equipment and transport ve -
hicles accounted for about a third in the invest -
ment structure in 2009. The imports of machin -
ery, equipment and transport vehicles contracted
by 48.4% in 2009 whereas in 2008 they grew by
38.4%.
Fixed capital investment was financed mostly
by raised funds (63.7%). Bank credit accounted
for 9.4% or 2.4 percentage points less than in
2008.
As exports declined more slowly in real terms
than imports, net exports increased by 56.8% in
2009.
Foreign demand
Foreign demand for Russian goods continued
to grow in the first quarter of 2010. Export vol -
umes expanded considerably in January-March
2010 as compared with the same period last year
largely due to the recovery of natural gas deliv -
eries to the world market. Exports to European
Union member states, especially eurozone coun -
tries, grew faster than overall exports in January-
March 2010 year on year. The most significant
increase was registered in Russian exports to such
EU countries, as the Netherlands, Germany and
Poland. The biggest rise in exports to Asia-Pacific
Economic Cooperation (APEC) member coun -
tries was registered in Russian deliveries to South
Korea. Exports to CIS countries (except Ukraine)
grew slower while exports to Eurasian Economic
Cooperation (EurAsEC) member states, especially
to Belarus, increased insignificantly. There was an
expansion of Russian export volumes of energy
products, primarily natural gas, and most non-
energy products in January-March 2010 as com-
pared with the same period last year.
Supply
GDP expanded by 2.9% in January-March
2010 as compared with the same period last year.
Output expanded in most key economic ac -
tivities, except construction and wholesale trade,
in the first quarter of 2010. Output in the basic
economic activities increased by 3.2% in January-
March 2010 year on year (it contracted by 12.3%
in January-March 2009).
Volume of works in construction contracted
by 8.1% and wholesale trade turnover declined
by 3.7% whereas transport, agriculture and retail
trade registered the expansion by 11.7%, 3.6%
and 1.3%, respectively, in January-March 2010
as against the same period a year earlier.
Industrial production increased by 5.8%
in the first quarter of 2010 whereas in January-
March 2009 it fell by 14.3%. Output expanded
rapidly in the mining and quarrying of natural
minerals (by 6.7%), with significant growth rates
registered in mining and quarrying of metal ore
and coal. Manufacturing increased by 5.2%. In
January-March 2010, there was a considerable
increase in the manufacture of electrical, elec -
tronic and optical equipment (31.2%), chemicals
Economic growth in foreign countries1
GDP in the countries accounting for a large part of Russian exports increased by an estimated 2.4% in the
first quarter of 2010 as compared with the same period last year (in the first quarter of 2009, it contracted
5.5%). Preliminary data indicate that US GDP expanded 2.4% and eurozone GDP 0.5% while China’s GDP in -
creased 11.9%. The economies of Russia’s trading partners continued their post-crisis recovery in the reporting
period. An important role in these processes was played by the expansion of US personal consumption, the dy-
namics of inventories in foreign economies and the situation on world commodity markets, which was improving
for the countries exporting raw materials.
According to forecasts of the IMF and the European Commission published in April-May this year, the
world production of goods and services will expand 4.0-4.2% in 2010 (it contracted by an estimated 0.6-0.9%
in 2009). US GDP is expected to expand 2.8-3.1%, eurozone GDP 0.9-1.0% and China’s GDP 10.0-10.3%
in 2010. Risks for the development of the favourable world economic situation stem from the persisting high
unemployment rate in the leading economies, the tense situation on foreign credit markets and the financial
problems of some countries related to large budget deficits.
1 According to data compiled by the national statistics agencies of Russia’s trading partners.
14 2010 Q1
(27.6%), leather and leather products, footwear
(25.6%), rubber and plastic products (19.6%).
There was a rise in production of major types
of animal husbandry products in January-March
2010, including production of livestock and poul-
try for slaughter , which grew by 8.4%. The pro -
duction of meat and meat products increased by
12.9% in the first quarter of 2010 as compared
with the same period last year , of which the output
of meat, including offals, expanded by 17.9%. As
of the beginning of April 2010, grain stocks at
agricultural, procurement and processing enter -
prises exceeded by 11.6% last year’s levels.
According to The Russian Economic Ba -
rometer , the rate of capacity utilisation in indus -
try stood at 69% on average in January-March
2010 as against 62% in January-March 2009.
The highest rate of capacity utilisation was regis -
tered in manufacture of wood and wood products
(88%), chemicals (85%) and the light industry
(78%) whereas the lowest rate was observed in
the production of building materials (56%) and
metal products (57%). The gap between actual
and potential output was estimated as negative in
January-March 2010.
Labour market
The number of people employed in the econ-
omy decreased by 0.4% in January-March 2010
(2.3% in January-March 2009). Labour produc-
tivity increased by an estimated 3.3% in the first
quarter of 2010.
In 2009, labour productivity was observed
to decline. Estimates show that the decline in la -
bour productivity in production of goods was
slower than that of services. The output of goods
declined faster than the production of services.
Estimates show that the number of employed
producing services in 2009 was unchanged from
the previous year while the number of employed
producing goods declined.
Real wage grew by 3.1% in January-March
2010, whereas in the first quarter of 2009 it con-
tracted by 0.8%. Estimates show that real wage
increased more slowly than labour productivity.
Wages continued to differ significantly in
various types of economic activities at the begin -
ning of 2010. The highest average monthly wage
in January-March 2010 was registered in finan -
cial activities (46,775 rubles) and mining and
quarrying of energy producing materials (43,931
rubles), exceeding the national average by 2.4
times and 2.3 times, respectively. The lowest
wage was registered in agriculture, hunting and
forestry (9,194 rubles), manufacture of textile
and textile products (9,399 rubles) and in manu-
facture of leather and leather goods, footwear
(9,918 rubles), representing respectively 47%,
48% and 51% of the national average. Wages
below the national average were registered in ac-
tivities largely financed by the federal budget (ed-
ucation; other public utilities, public and personal
services; public health and social services), and in
Inflation Dynamics
2010 Q1 15
manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail
trade, car and other repair services.
The number of unemployed contracted in
February 2010 for the first time since July 2008.
The total number of unemployed calculated by
the ILO methodology declined by 3.7% to 8.8%
of the economically active population in the first
quarter of 2010 as against 9.1% in January-
March 2009.
16 2010 Q1
increased by 1.3%. As a result, the official rate of
the US dollar against the ruble stood at 29.1537
as of May 1, 2010.
The nominal ruble/euro rate increased
5.2% in the first quarter of 2010 after gaining
2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2009. The ruble
grew steadily against the single European cur -
rency in each of the three months of the report -
ing quarter. As of April 1, 2010, the official rate of
the euro stood at 39.5713 rubles. In April 2010,
the nominal rate of the ruble against the euro -
zone currency continued to grow and increased
by 2.3%. As a result, the official rate of the euro
against the ruble stood at 38.6986 as of May 1,
2010.
The ruble value of the bi-currency basket,
determined by the US dollar/ruble and euro / ru-
ble dynamics, reached 34.0297 rubles as of April
1, 2010. As of May 1, 2010, the value of the op-
erating benchmark fell to 33.4489 rubles. In Jan-
uary-March 2010 as a whole, the most consider-
able contribution to the reduction of the value of
the bi-currency basket came from the growth of
the nominal ruble/euro rate.
The nominal effective rate of the ruble
against foreign currencies increased by 2.3% in
the first quarter of 2010 as compared to 3.5% in
the fourth quarter of 2009. Along with the higher
Exchange rate
In the first quarter of 2010, the ruble ex -
change rate on the domestic foreign exchange
market remained stable amid some improvement
in the price dynamics on world commodity mar -
kets. Estimates show that the current account
surplus stood at $33.9 billion in January-March
2010. At the same time, a net private sector capi-
tal outflow of $12.9 billion was registered in the
first quarter of 2010 whereas in the fourth quar -
ter of 2009 there was a net capital inflow of $8.3
billion. Russia’s international reserves increased
1.8% in the reporting quarter to $447.0 billion as
of April 1, 2010.
The nominal ruble/US dollar rate fell
1.5% in the first quarter of 2010, whereas in the
fourth quarter of 2009 it gained 6.3%. In the first
three months of this year , the nominal ruble / US
dollar rate demonstrated different dynamics. In
January 2010 no significant changes were reg -
istered in the rate. In February, however , the ru -
ble lost 0.8% of its value against the US dollar in
nominal terms, whereas in March the nominal
ruble/dollar rate grew by 2.1%. As of April 1,
2010, the official rate of the US dollar against the
ruble was 29.4956. In April 2010, as the world
economic situation improved considerably, the
nominal ruble/dollar rate continued to grow and
Monetary Conditions
Monetary Conditions
2010 Q1 17
against the US dollar in real terms in April 2010,
gaining 1.1%.
The real ruble/euro rate grew 7.7% in
January-March 2010 after a moderate 2.9%
growth registered in the fourth quarter of 2009.
The relative contribution of the nominal ruble/
euro rate to the dynamics of the real rate of the
ruble against the single European currency con -
tinued to exceed slightly the contribution by the
inflation differential. According to preliminary es-
timates, the ruble strengthened by 1.9% against
the euro in April 2010.
rates of the ruble’s appreciation against the euro
in January-March 2010, there was also significant
growth in the nominal value of the ruble against
the currencies of Russia’s non-eurozone trading
partners.
The real ruble/US dollar rate increased
2.3% in the first quarter of 2010 (6.4% in the
fourth quarter of 2009). As compared with the
fourth quarter of 2009, a key role in the dynamics
of the real ruble/US dollar rate in January-March
2010 was played by internal inflation. According
to estimates, the ruble continued to appreciate
International currency market
The US dollar gained about 7% against the
euro on the international currency market in the first
quarter of 2010 (March on December 2009). The
euro weakened in the reporting period due to risks
related to large budget deficits and the high level of
sovereign debt in some member countries of the Eu-
ropean Economic and Monetary Union (primarily in
Greece).
Among the currencies of Russia’s major trading
partners that rallied against the dollar and the euro
were the Indian rupee, South Korean won, Kazakh
tenge and Ukrainian hryvnia. The Chinese yuan,
Japanese yen, Brazilian real, Turkish lira, Polish zloty
and Swedish krona, and also the currencies of some
other countries, including the Belarusian ruble, ap -
preciated considerably against the euro (by more
than 5%) but depreciated against the US dollar (ex-
cept for the Chinese currency, which remained stable
at 6.83 yuan to the dollar).
18 2010 Q1
its operations for making credit more accessible
for economic agents and stimulating final de -
mand. Specifically, the minimum rate at one-day
repo auctions was lowered from 6.0% to 5.25%
per annum while the overnight rate, which sets
the upper limit of the Bank of Russia interest rate
band, was cut from 8.75% to 8.0% p.a. At the
same time, the lower limit of the Bank of Russia
interest rate band was reduced from 3.5% p.a.
(the «tom-next» deposit rate) to 2.5% p.a. (the
rate on overnight deposits returned from March
29, 2010).
Average interest rates on ruble-denominated
interbank loans with different terms to redemp-
tion decreased considerably in the first quarter of
2010. The average quarterly MIACR on overnight
ruble loans fell to 3.8% p.a. in the first quarter of
2010 from 5.4% in the fourth quarter of the pre-
vious year. During the first quarter of 2010, the
daily MIACR on overnight interbank ruble loans
ranged between 2.9% and 5.4% p.a. (in the
The real effective rate of the ruble against
foreign currencies rose by 4.0% in the first quar -
ter of 2010 (in the fourth quarter of 2009 it grew
by 3.0%). The real effective rate of the ruble to
the currencies of the countries among Russia’s
main trading partners was observed to increase
in each of the months of the reporting quarter ,
which was largely explained by the growth of the
ruble/euro rate in the reporting period. According
to preliminary data, the real effective rate of the
ruble also increased in April 2010, gaining 1.5%.
It has been estimated that the ruble exchange rate
against foreign currencies, which was observed in
the first quarter of 2010, will contribute to the
slowing of consumer price inflation by 0.2 per -
centage points in 2010.
Interest rates
As inflation and inflationary expectations
changed for the better in January-April 2010, the
Bank of Russia continued to cut interest rates on
Liquidity situation and Bank of Russia operations
The situation on the money market remained stable in January-April 2010 and the level of banking sector
liquidity was high. Along with a considerable increase in the average level of aggregate banking sector reserves
as a result of growth in net foreign assets and net claims on the government sector, there was a contraction in
the volume of operations and debt on the Bank of Russia’s refinancing instruments.
The Bank of Russia’s average daily debt to credit institutions on liquidity absorption instruments increased
from about 410 billion rubles in the fourth quarter of 2009 to 1,030 billion rubles in the first quarter of 2010
and to 1,460 billion rubles in April 2010. The percentage ratio between the debt on deposit operations and li -
abilities resulting from operations with Bank of Russia bonds (OBRs) changed from 75:25 in the fourth quarter
of 2009 to 54:46 in the first quarter of 2010 and to
43:57 in April 2010, which was also due to the in -
creased supply of OBR bonds by the Bank of Russia.
The Bank of Russia’s average daily claims on credit
institutions on the instruments of liquidity provided
in January-March 2010 decreased from 815 billion
rubles in the fourth quarter of 2009 to 480 billion
rubles in Q1 and to 155 billion rubles in April 2010.
Amid favourable macroeconomic and banking
sector stability indicators and the overall reduction
of systemic risk, the Bank of Russia took the deci -
sion to limit credit institutions’ possibilities to receive
unsecured loans and long-term loans and gradually
replace them by the conventional methods of pro -
viding liquidity. For this purpose, the Bank of Russia
on February 1, 2010 and on May 1, 2010 lowered
the credit risk limits set for each credit institution on
unsecured loans. In addition, from April 29, 2010,
it suspended the provision of loans against «non-
market» assets and guarantees for a term of 181 to
365 days.
Monetary Conditions
2010 Q1 19
Foreign central bank policies
Most of Russia’s major trading partners kept key interest rates on monetary policy instruments unchanged
in January-March 2010. Interest rates were lowered in Belarus and Hungary and raised in India. Since December
2008, the US Federal Reserve has maintained the benchmark federal funds rate within the range of from 0% to
0.25% p.a. The interest rate on the main refinancing operations of the European Central Bank (ECB) has been
kept at 1.0% p.a. since May 2009.
The discount rate set by the US Federal Reserve Banks (the interest rate on loans extended to commercial
banks through «discount window» lending programmes) was raised in February 2010 from 0.5% to 0.75% p.a.
By the end of the first quarter of 2010, the Federal Reserve had completely withdrawn its special monetary tools
used during the most intense stage of the financial crisis to supply liquidity to banks and support the commercial
paper market.
20 2010 Q1
term ruble deposit rate declined by 1.7 percent -
age points quarter on quarter in January-March
2010 and stood at 8.5% p.a. The average rate on
ruble household long-term deposits with terms
ranging from 1 year to 3 years fell by 1.9 percent-
age points to 8.7% p.a.
The average quarterly interest rate on ruble-
denominated long-term loans to households fell
in 2010 Q1 by 0.1 percentage points quarter on
quarter , to 19.4% p.a. The average short-term
loan rate rose by 0.7 percentage points to 31.3%
p.a. in January-March 2010.
Interest rates on loans to non-financial or-
ganisations continued to decline. The average
quarterly rate on long-term loans fell over that pe-
fourth quarter of 2009, it varied between 4.0%
and 7.1% p.a.). In April 2010, MIACR on over -
night interbank ruble loans fluctuated between
2.8% and 3.9% p.a. The average overnight ruble
MIACR stood at 3.3% p.a. in April, a fall of 0.3
percentage points on March. The interest rate on
ruble interbank loans placed by Russian banks
for a term of 2-7 days declined from 5.4% p.a.
in the fourth quarter of 2009 to 4.3% p.a. in the
first quarter of 2010, the rate on 8-30 day loans
fell from 6.8% to 5.5% p.a. and the rate on 1-3
month loans was down from 8.8% to 6.9% p.a.
Interest rates on household deposits with
all terms, from 1 month to 3 years, continued to
fall in the first quarter of 2010. The average short-
Monetary Conditions
2010 Q1 21
riod by 0.8 percentage points to 13.9% p.a. The
average rate on short-term loans to non-finan -
cial organisations was down by 1.1 percentage
points in January-March 2010 quarter on quarter
to 12.8% p.a. The most significant fall in interest
rates was on loans with terms up to 1 month and
from 3 to 6 months (by 1.6 percentage points and
by 1.8 percentage points respectively). The yield
curve for loans to non-financial organisations
in 2010 Q1 was rising in the up-to-3-months
segment, falling in the segment of 3 months to
3 years and flat in the segment of over 3 years,
moving down as compared to 2009 Q4.
Yields mostly fell in the OFZ market in 2010
Q1. By the end of that period, the effective OFZ
market portfolio indicator (MPI) declined by 1.2
percentage points quarter on quarter , to 7.4%
p.a. The average quarterly effective MPI dropped
by 1.2 percentage points to 7.9% p.a. OFZ yields
kept falling in the first week of April and subse -
quently were largely observed to rise until the end
of the month. As of the end of April, the effective
MPI slipped by 0.1 percentage points month on
month to 7.3% p.a. The average effective MPI de-
creased in April by 0.3 percentage points on the
previous month and stood at 7.3% p.a.
The OFZ yield curve retained its upward slop-
ing shape while shifting down in January-April
2010. By the end of April 2010, the slope of
the government bond yield curve had increased
22 2010 Q1
In the first quarter of 2010, there was a con-
siderable slowing of growth in the prices of cor -
porate stocks in the sectors of the Russian econo-
my demonstrating the largest turnover volumes in
the secondary stock market: the oil and gas sector
with its largest exposure to external factors and
the financial sector. The prices of corporate stocks
in most other sectors of the Russian economy
grew faster in January-March 2010 than in the
fourth quarter of 2009. As a result, the prices of
consumer goods and retail trade, electric utilities
and metallurgy sector stocks increased the most in
the reporting quarter.
In April 2010, Russian stock prices demon -
strated different dynamics. The MICEX and RTS
stock indices grew in the first half of the month
whereas in the second half they declined rapidly
as the world stock market situation deteriorated
and financial instability in some European coun -
tries increased. By the end of that month, the
MICEX index declined 1.0% month on month to
1,436.04 points while the RTS index was almost
unchanged at 1,572.84 points. Most of the sec -
tors saw prices of their corporate stocks increase
in April, except the telecommunications and fi -
nance sectors.
Monetary aggregates
In January-March 2010, monetary aggre-
gate M2 increased by 1.9% (in the first quarter
of 2009, it contracted by 10.2%). Beginning
from the second quarter of 2009, seasonally-ad-
justed monthly growth rates of the ruble money
slightly compared with what it was in the first
three months of the year due to the faster decline
in short-term government bond yields.
Yields continued to fall in the ruble corpo-
rate and regional bonds market in January-
April 2010. The dynamics of yields on corporate
and regional bonds in that period were similar
to the dynamics of OFZ bond yields. In the first
quarter of 2010, the average yield on corporate
and regional bonds stood at 9.1% and 8.7% p.a.
respectively as against 11.2% and 10.6% p.a. in
the fourth quarter of 2009. In April 2010, aver -
age corporate and regional bond yield fell by 0.3
percentage points and 0.2 percentage points
month on month, to 8.0% and 7.6% p.a. re -
spectively. Spreads between OFZ, corporate and
regional bond yields continued to narrow in the
January-April 2010 period.
Asset prices
In the first quarter of 2010, securities prices
in the Russian stock market remained highly
volatile amid market participants’ uncertain price
expectations and the unstable world commodity
and stock market situation. Share prices grew at
a much slower pace in January-March 2010 than
in the fourth quarter of 2009. As of March 31,
2010 the MICEX index rose by 5.8% quarter on
quarter , to 1,450.15 points and the RTS index
gained 8.9% and reached 1,572.48 points. The
average MICEX and RTS indices in the first quarter
of 2010 exceeded the previous quarter’s levels by
6.0% and 5.9% respectively.
Monetary Conditions
2010 Q1 23
time, the continued increase in net claims on gov-
ernment and the Bank of Russia’s interventions on
the domestic foreign exchange market also main-
tained the high rates of growth in money supply.
Specifically, the annual rate of the broad monetary
base growth reached 48% as of April 1, 2010.
The significant slowing of the rates of growth
in claims on non-financial organisations and
households reflected the banking system’s re -
duced credit activity in the creation of money
supply. Despite the growth of aggregate bank re-
serves and the reduction of the share of cash in
the structure of the broad monetary base, in gen-
eral since mid-2008 there was no trend towards
the growth of the money multiplier.
stock began to accelerate. As a result, in the first
quarter of 2010 on average their value reached
the pre-crisis level. The annual growth rates of
the ruble money stock started to accelerate in
October 2009 and reached 32.1% as of April 1,
2010, which represents the level registered in the
middle of 2008. The dynamics of the annualised
6-month growth rates of M2, which depend to
a lesser extent on the previous year’s base effect,
shows further acceleration of M2 growth rates.
The significant growth of the ruble money
stock was to a certain extent attributable to the
increase in demand for the national currency amid
the gradual recovery of economic growth rates
and the appreciation of the ruble. At the same
24 2010 Q1
decline rapidly from the end of 2009 (largely due
to the so-called «base effect» ) and fell to 0.1% as
of April 1, 2010 (a decrease by 11.9% as of April
1, 2010). The level of dollarization of deposits 1
continued to shrink in the first quarter of 2010
and fell to 18.6% as of April 1, 2010 (25.7% as
of the same date a year earlier).
The dynamics of foreign currency deposits
led to the lower annual rates of growth in mon-
etary aggregate M2X as compared with M2.
Nevertheless, in the first quarter of 2010 the an -
nual rates of growth in M2X were on the rise and
reached 20.5% as of April 1. The dynamics of
the annualised 6-month rates of growth in broad
money indicates the acceleration of M2X growth
rates approximately from the middle of the third
quarter of 2009.
The tightening of monetary conditions ob -
served in 2008 and the first half of 2009 may
decelerate the growth of prices in 2010. At the
same time, estimates based on current monetary
indicators suggest that inflation risks posed by
monetary factors may increase at the end of 2010
and in the first half of 2011.
Credit aggregates
The outstanding ruble loans grew in March
2010; however , total debts on all categories of
bank loans shrank by 1% as a whole in January-
1 The level of dollarization in this case is the share of foreign
currency deposits (in ruble terms) in the broad monetary
base.
The highest rates of growth in the M2 com -
ponents were demonstrated by the household
deposits, which increased by 7.9% in January-
March 2010 (they shrank by 4.2% in the first
quarter of 2009 and grew by 2.4% in the first
quarter of 2008). As a result, the annual rate of
growth in the ruble household deposits reached
43.2% as of April 1, 2010. The non-financial or-
ganisation deposits contracted by 1.5% in the first
quarter of 2010 (by 12.9% in the first quarter of
2009). As a result, the annual rate of growth in
the non-financial organisation deposits stood at
29.4% as of April 1, 2010.
The average monthly rate of growth in mon-
etary aggregate M0 in the first quarter of 2010
considerably exceeded the growth rates regis -
tered in the same period of 2008 and 2009. The
M0 dynamics was significantly affected by house-
holds’ changing preferences towards foreign cur-
rency. Specifically, net sales of foreign currency
by households through foreign exchange offices
totalled $946.4 million in January-March 2010
whereas in the same period last year foreign cur -
rency was purchased by individuals (net purchas-
es exceeded $10 billion).
Amid the relatively steady trend of the ru -
ble’s appreciation, there was a considerable slow-
ing of growth in foreign currency deposits. Their
value (in dollar terms) contracted by about 2% in
January-March 2010 (in January-March 2009,
they grew by more than 10%). The annual rates
of growth in foreign currency deposits started to
Monetary Conditions
2010 Q1 25
March 2010. As a result, the loans to non-fi -
nancial organisations fell by 5.3% as of April 1,
2010, year on year (they grew by 27.9% as of
the same date last year) while the loans to house-
holds decreased by 8.7% (they rose by 21% a
year earlier).
Therefore, despite the March indicators, the
dynamics of credit aggregates in the first quarter
of 2010 did not suggest any changes in negative
trends observed on credit markets. Despite a con-
siderable volume of excess liquidity on the short-
term money market and the continued growth of
the deposit base, banks were unwilling to expand
their credit portfolios, preferring to build up alter-
native assets. Beginning from the second half of
2009, there was a rapid growth in the debt liabili-
ties of both the private and government sectors
in the structure of commercial banks’ assets. This
can be explained by the desire of banks to hold
more liquid assets amid persisting uncertainty
about the further development of the real sector
of the economy. On the other hand, the growth
in lending was restricted by the low demand for
loans. Low lending activity as a whole matched
the GDP dynamics over that period.
The recovery of the rates of growth in credit
aggregates will in the future depend on the rates
of economic growth.
Assessment of the level of the demand for loans in the Russian economy
One of the most widespread methods of assessing the compliance of the level of lending activity with the
indicators of the real sector of the economy is the calculation of the function of the demand for loans. Normally,
this implies the assessment of the statistical dependence of credit aggregate dynamics on the GDP indicator
reflecting changes in transaction requirements, and also the expectations of economic agents about the level of
income in the formation of the demand for loans, and the interest rate indicator reflecting the cost of borrowing.
Therefore, the empirical assessment of the level of the demand for loans is made using the following function:
Lt = δ0 + δ1Yt – δ2Rt , where
L – the logarithm of debts on ruble loans to non-financial organisations in real terms;
Y –the logarithm of the real GDP base index;
R – the interest rate on loans to non-financial organisations with a term of up to one year.
The results of statistical tests suggest the stability of this function estimated for the Russian economy, de-
spite considerable fluctuations both in the GDP and credit aggregates. This may testify to the existence of the
conformity between GDP and the loans, which also remained during the financial and economic crisis.
The assessed function can be used to calculate the credit gap (i.e. the deviation of actual loans from the
estimated reference level, which can be interpreted as the level of the demand for loans). Another method of the
26 2010 Q1
credit gap calculation can be filtration of the loan to
GDP ratio using the HP-filter.
As a whole the dynamics of gaps calculated
using different methods was co-directional. How -
ever, in 2009, the gap calculated using the filtration
method continued to descend into the negative sec-
tor while the gap calculated using the function of the
demand for loans turned positive. 1 Therefore, con-
sidering the existing uncertainty about the assess -
ment of the level of credit gaps, and also the small
range of fluctuations of both calculated indicators, it
can be said that at the current moment the demand
for loans matches their actual dynamics.
Given that economic growth continues, credit
activity should also be expected to recover. This re -
covery may take place with a considerable time lag
relative to economic growth rates, which can take
several quarters.
1 This difference can be explained, in particular, by the fact that the function of the demand for loans takes into account the effect of the
decrease in demand amid the growth of interest rates.
2010 Q1 27
Statistical Addendum
Table 1
Consumer prices by group of goods and services
(month on month, %)
Monthly
inflation
Core
inflation
Food price
growth
Food price
growth 1
Vegetable
and fruit price
growth
Non-food
price growth
Growth in non-
food prices,
excluding petrol
prices 2
Service price
growth
January 2.3 1.1 1.9 1.2 8.3 0.6 0.6 5.4
February 1.2 1.0 1.7 1.3 5.1 0.6 0.6 1.4
March 1.2 1.1 2.0 1.5 5.9 0.7 0.7 0.6
April 1.4 1.3 2.2 1.8 5.5 0.9 0.7 1.0
May 1.4 1.1 2.1 1.5 6.4 0.8 0.6 1.0
June 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.7 0.5 1.1
July 0.5 0.8 0.1 1.0 -6.7 0.7 0.5 0.9
August 0.4 1.0 -0.2 1.2 -11.3 0.6 0.6 0.9
September 0.8 1.4 0.7 1.5 -6.4 0.7 0.8 1.0
October 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.8 -0.4 0.8 1.0 0.0
November 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.9 0.7
December 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.7 0.1 0.6 1.0
Full year (December on December) 13.3 13.6 16.5 17.5 7.7 8.0 8.4 13.3
January 2.4 1.3 1.4 1.1 4.7 0.7 1.0 6.3
February 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.5 4.9 1.6 1.8 1.4
March 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.4 4.5 1.4 1.6 0.6
April 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 -0.1 1.0 1.1 0.3
May 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.3 4.1 0.7 0.8 0.3
June 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.1 3.9 0.8 0.3 0.5
July 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.2 3.2 0.6 0.2 0.8
August 0.0 0.5 -0.9 0.4 -11.0 0.6 0.4 0.4
September 0.0 0.5 -0.8 0.4 -11.5 0.7 0.6 0.1
October 0.0 0.3 -0.5 0.0 -6.1 0.6 0.7 -0.1
November 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.1
December 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 3.0 0.2 0.3 0.5
Full year (December on December) 8.8 8.3 6.1 6.9 -1.7 9.7 9.8 11.6
January 1.6 0.5 1.4 0.8 7.2 0.2 0.3 3.9
February 0.9 0.5 1.3 0.8 5.6 0.3 0.3 1.0
March 0.6 0.5 1.0 0.7 4.2 0.4 0.4 0.4
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Bank of Russia estimate.
Note. T ables 1 to 7 are based on Rosstat data and Bank of Russia calculations.
28 2010 Q1
Table 2
Consumer prices by group of goods and services
(since start of year on accrual basis, %)
Inflation Core
inflation
Food price
growth
Food price
growth 1
Vegetable
and fruit price
growth
Non-food
price growth
Growth in non-
food prices,
excluding petrol
prices 2
Service price
growth
January 2.3 1.1 1.9 1.2 8.3 0.6 0.6 5.4
February 3.5 2.1 3.6 2.5 13.9 1.2 1.2 6.8
March 4.8 3.2 5.7 4.0 20.6 2.0 1.9 7.5
April 6.3 4.5 8.0 5.9 27.2 2.9 2.6 8.5
May 7.7 5.7 10.2 7.5 35.4 3.7 3.2 9.6
June 8.7 6.7 11.4 8.7 36.0 4.4 3.7 10.8
July 9.3 7.6 11.5 9.8 26.9 5.2 4.2 11.9
August 9.7 8.6 11.3 11.2 12.5 5.8 4.9 12.9
September 10.6 10.1 12.1 12.9 5.3 6.5 5.7 14.1
October 11.6 11.5 13.9 14.9 4.8 7.3 6.8 14.1
November 12.5 12.7 15.3 16.3 5.9 7.8 7.8 14.8
December 13.3 13.6 16.5 17.5 7.7 8.0 8.4 13.3
January 2.4 1.3 1.4 1.1 4.7 0.7 1.0 6.3
February 4.1 2.9 3.3 2.6 9.8 2.3 2.8 7.8
March 5.4 4.3 5.0 4.0 14.7 3.8 4.5 8.5
April 6.2 5.2 5.8 4.8 14.6 4.8 5.7 8.7
May 6.8 5.7 6.5 5.1 19.3 5.5 6.5 9.1
June 7.4 6.0 7.0 5.2 24.0 6.3 6.9 9.6
July 8.1 6.3 7.6 5.4 28.0 7.0 7.1 10.5
August 8.1 6.8 6.6 5.8 14.0 7.6 7.6 10.9
September 8.1 7.3 5.8 6.3 0.8 8.3 8.2 11.0
October 8.1 7.6 5.2 6.3 -5.4 9.0 9.0 10.9
November 8.4 8.0 5.5 6.5 -4.5 9.4 9.4 11.1
December 8.8 8.3 6.1 6.9 -1.7 9.7 9.8 11.6
January 1.6 0.5 1.4 0.8 7.2 0.2 0.3 3.9
February 2.5 1.0 2.7 1.6 13.2 0.5 0.6 5.0
March 3.2 1.5 3.8 2.3 18.0 0.9 1.0 5.4
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Bank of Russia estimate.
Statistical Addendum
2010 Q1 29
Table 3
Consumer prices by group of goods and services
(month on corresponding month of previous year, %)
Inflation Core
inflation 1
Food price
growth
Food price
growth 2
Vegetable
and fruit price
growth
Non-food
price growth
Growth in non-
food prices.
excluding petrol
prices 1
Service price
growth
January 12.6 11.5 16.7 15.7 27.2 6.8 6.6 14.1
February 12.7 12.1 17.6 16.5 29.1 7.0 6.8 12.7
March 13.3 12.7 19.1 17.6 32.6 7.4 7.1 12.7
April 14.3 13.5 20.8 19.1 35.6 8.0 7.4 13.3
May 15.1 14.5 22.1 20.8 33.9 8.4 7.7 13.9
June 15.1 15.1 21.3 21.7 19.9 8.9 7.9 14.4
July 14.7 15.0 19.8 21.2 9.8 9.2 8.0 14.7
August 15.0 14.8 20.2 20.8 16.1 9.2 8.1 15.2
September 15.0 14.5 19.9 20.0 19.0 9.1 8.1 15.9
October 14.2 13.7 17.9 18.0 17.5 9.1 8.2 15.7
November 13.8 13.7 17.2 17.7 11.9 8.6 8.4 15.8
December 13.3 13.6 16.5 17.5 7.7 8.0 8.4 13.3
January 13.4 13.9 15.9 17.3 4.1 8.1 8.9 16.9
February 13.9 14.6 16.1 17.6 3.8 9.2 10.2 17.0
March 14.0 14.9 15.8 17.4 2.5 9.9 11.2 17.0
April 13.2 14.4 14.1 16.3 -3.0 10.0 11.7 16.2
May 12.3 13.6 12.5 14.9 -5.1 9.9 11.9 15.4
June 11.9 12.9 11.9 13.7 -1.8 9.9 11.7 14.6
July 12.0 12.3 12.4 12.7 8.7 9.8 11.4 14.5
August 11.6 11.7 11.6 11.8 9.1 9.9 11.2 13.9
September 10.7 10.8 9.9 10.6 3.2 9.9 11.0 12.8
October 9.7 9.6 7.6 8.7 -2.8 9.6 10.6 12.7
November 9.1 8.8 6.6 7.6 -2.9 9.6 10.0 12.1
December 8.8 8.3 6.1 6.9 -1.7 9.7 9.8 11.6
January 8.0 7.5 6.1 6.6 0.7 9.1 9.0 9.1
February 7.2 6.3 5.5 5.8 1.4 7.7 7.4 8.7
March 6.5 5.4 4.8 5.1 1.1 6.6 6.1 8.4
1 Bank of Russia estimate.
2 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
30 2010 Q1
Table 4
Inflation growth over period since start of year due to price changes
by group of goods and services (percentage points)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food
products
Paid
services
Vegetables and
fruit
Inflation over
period, %
Core
inflation
Non-core
inflation 2
January 0.4 0.2 1.3 0.3 2.3 0.8 1.5
February 0.9 0.4 1.7 0.5 3.5 1.6 1.9
March 1.4 0.7 1.9 0.8 4.8 2.5 2.3
April 2.1 1.0 2.1 1.0 6.3 3.6 2.7
May 2.6 1.3 2.4 1.4 7.7 4.5 3.2
June 3.1 1.6 2.7 1.4 8.7 5.3 3.5
July 3.5 1.9 3.0 1.0 9.3 6.0 3.3
August 3.9 2.1 3.2 0.5 9.7 6.8 2.9
September 4.5 2.3 3.5 0.2 10.6 8.0 2.6
October 5.2 2.6 3.5 0.2 11.6 9.2 2.4
November 5.7 2.8 3.7 0.2 12.5 10.1 2.4
December 6.2 2.9 4.0 0.3 13.3 10.8 2.5
January 0.4 0.3 1.6 0.2 2.4 1.0 1.4
February 0.9 0.9 2.0 0.4 4.1 2.4 1.7
March 1.4 1.4 2.1 0.5 5.4 3.5 2.0
April 1.6 1.8 2.2 0.5 6.2 4.2 2.0
May 1.8 2.1 2.3 0.7 6.8 4.6 2.2
June 1.8 2.4 2.4 0.9 7.4 4.8 2.6
July 1.9 2.6 2.6 1.0 8.1 5.1 3.0
August 2.0 2.9 2.7 0.5 8.1 5.5 2.6
September 2.1 3.1 2.8 0.0 8.1 5.9 2.1
October 2.1 3.4 2.7 -0.2 8.1 6.1 1.9
November 2.2 3.5 2.8 -0.2 8.4 6.4 1.9
December 2.4 3.6 2.9 -0.1 8.8 6.7 2.1
January 0.3 0.1 1.0 0.3 1.6 0.4 1.2
February 0.6 0.2 1.3 0.5 2.5 0.8 1.7
March 0.8 0.3 1.4 0.6 3.2 1.2 2.0
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
Statistical Addendum
2010 Q1 31
Table 5
Monthly inflation growth due to price changes
by group of goods and services (percentage points)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food
products
Paid
services
Vegetables
and fruit
Inflation over
period, %
Core
inflation
Non-core
inflation 2
January 0.4 0.2 1.3 0.3 2.3 0.8 1.5
February 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 1.2 0.8 0.4
March 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 1.2 0.8 0.3
April 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 1.4 1.0 0.4
May 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.4 0.9 0.5
June 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.0 0.7 0.2
July 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.3 0.5 0.7 -0.1
August 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.5 0.4 0.8 -0.4
September 0.5 0.2 0.3 -0.3 0.8 1.1 -0.3
October 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.9 1.1 -0.2
November 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.0
December 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1
January 0.4 0.3 1.6 0.2 2.4 1.0 1.4
February 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.7 1.3 0.3
March 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 1.3 1.1 0.2
April 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.0
May 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2
June 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.4
July 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.4
August 3 0.0
September 3 0.0
October 3 0.0
November 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0
December 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1
January 0.3 0.1 1.0 0.3 1.6 0.4 1.2
February 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.5
March 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.3
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
3 Owing to zero inflation in August-October 2009, estimates may vary.
32 2010 Q1
Table 6
Contribution to inflation growth over period since start of year
by group of goods and services (%)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food products Paid services Vegetables and fruit Core inflation Non-core inflation 2
January 18.9 9.3 58.1 13.7 36.2 63.8
February 25.1 12.1 47.9 14.9 46.1 53.9
March 29.7 14.7 39.0 16.6 52.7 47.3
April 33.0 16.5 33.9 16.6 57.0 43.0
May 34.2 17.1 31.1 17.6 58.5 41.5
June 35.2 18.2 30.8 15.7 60.5 39.5
July 37.3 19.9 31.7 11.1 64.4 35.6
August 40.6 21.4 33.0 5.0 70.5 29.5
September 43.0 22.0 33.1 1.9 75.7 24.3
October 45.3 22.9 30.2 1.6 79.2 20.8
November 46.0 22.6 29.6 1.8 80.8 19.2
December 46.4 21.6 29.8 2.2 81.5 18.5
January 15.6 11.3 66.2 7.0 42.3 57.7
February 22.1 21.5 47.9 8.6 57.7 42.3
March 25.3 26.1 38.9 9.7 64.0 36.0
April 26.7 29.3 35.5 8.5 67.9 32.1
May 25.9 30.5 33.4 10.2 67.5 32.5
June 24.1 31.9 32.4 11.6 65.0 35.0
July 23.0 32.3 32.3 12.4 62.6 37.4
August 24.7 35.3 33.8 6.2 67.6 32.4
September 26.7 38.7 34.2 0.4 73.3 26.7
October 26.6 41.9 33.8 -2.4 76.3 23.7
November 26.7 42.2 33.0 -1.9 76.7 23.3
December 26.7 41.0 33.0 -0.7 76.4 23.6
January 17.3 4.7 61.6 16.3 25.6 74.4
February 22.2 7.3 51.4 19.1 31.6 68.4
March 25.2 10.4 43.9 20.6 37.4 62.6
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
Statistical Addendum
2010 Q1 33
Table 7
Contribution to monthly inflation growth
by group of goods and services (%)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food products Paid services Vegetables and fruit Core inflation Non-core inflation 2
January 18.9 9.3 58.1 13.7 36.2 63.8
February 36.8 17.4 28.5 17.3 64.9 35.1
March 43.2 22.6 12.8 21.4 72.2 27.8
April 43.5 22.0 17.6 16.9 70.3 29.7
May 39.1 20.1 18.9 21.9 65.2 34.8
June 42.7 26.5 28.7 2.2 74.5 25.5
July 69.6 47.5 45.8 -62.9 125.6 -25.6
August 122.9 59.3 67.5 -149.7 225.0 -125.0
September 69.7 29.4 34.5 -33.6 136.6 -36.6
October 69.5 32.2 -0.1 -1.7 116.9 -16.9
November 54.4 19.8 21.2 4.7 100.5 -0.5
December 50.8 5.9 34.3 8.9 91.7 8.3
January 15.6 11.3 66.2 7.0 42.3 57.7
February 31.2 35.9 22.0 10.9 79.5 20.5
March 35.2 40.0 11.7 13.1 83.0 17.0
April 37.5 53.9 9.3 -0.7 97.1 2.9
May 17.1 42.5 13.3 27.1 62.6 37.4
June 5.7 46.9 20.7 26.8 38.4 61.6
July 10.8 35.8 31.6 21.8 35.3 64.7
August 3
September 3
October 3
November 28.1 49.3 12.4 10.2 87.7 12.3
December 27.2 18.3 31.2 23.4 70.2 29.8
January 17.3 4.7 61.6 16.3 25.6 74.4
February 30.6 11.7 33.6 24.1 42.2 57.8
March 36.4 22.1 15.4 26.0 59.6 40.4
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
3 Owing to zero inflation in August-October 2009, estimates may vary.
34 2010 Q1
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Macroeconomic indicators
GDP
over period since start of year, billion rubles
2007 6,783 14,553 23,458 33,258
2008 8,907 19,166 30,755 41,445
2009 8,397 17,680 28,185 39,064
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2007 107.5 107.8 107.8 108.1
2008 109.3 108.4 107.7 105.6
2009 90.6 89.8 90.7 92.1
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2007 107.5 108.0 107.7 109.0
2008 109.3 107.7 106.6 100.0
2009 90.6 89.2 92.3 96.2
Industrial output indices
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2008 106.2 105.5 104.7 93.9
2009 85.7 84.6 89.0 97.4
2010 105.8
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2008 106.2 105.8 105.4 102.1
2009 85.7 85.2 86.5 89.2
2010 105.8
Agricultural output
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2008 105.5 106.9 113.0 111.3
2009 102.3 100.8 99.0 105.2
2010 103.6
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2008 105.5 106.4 109.6 110.8
2009 102.3 101.4 100.1 101.2
2010 103.6
Fixed capital investment
over period since start of year, billion rubles
2008 1,314.6 3,306.1 5,675.1 8,781.6
2009 1,234.5 2,915.9 4,966.1 7,930.3
2010 1,238.1
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2008 123.4 117.6 112.3 98.7
2009 82.7 77.2 81.8 90.6
2010 95.3
Retail trade turnover
over period since start of year, billion rubles
2008 2,952.8 6,278.9 9,936.9 13,920.7
2009 3,324.0 6,836.9 10,530.1 14,602.5
2010 3,607.6
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2008 117.2 114.9 115.0 108.7
2009 100.4 94.9 91.4 94.5
2010 101.3
Federal budget on accrual
basis, as of end of period
revenue
billion rubles
2008 1,932.7 4,370.7 7,155.7 9,275.9
2009 1,732.7 3,172.2 5,114.4 7,337.8
2010 1,954.9
as % of GDP
2008 21.7 22.8 23.3 22.4
2009 20.6 17.9 18.1 18.8
2010 20.2 1
expenditure
billion rubles
2008 1,332.7 2,995.6 4,594.2 7,570.9
2009 1,762.4 3,893.8 6,441.7 9,660.1
2010 2,199.5
as % of GDP
2008 15.0 15.6 14.9 18.3
2009 21.0 22.0 22.9 24.7
2010 22.8 1
Federal budget surplus (+)/deficit (-) on accrual
basis, as of end of period
billion rubles
2008 600.0 1,375.1 2,561.5 1,705.1
2009 -29.7 -721.7 -1,327.2 -2,322.3
2010 -244.6
as % of GDP
2008 6.7 7.2 8.3 4.1
2009 -0.4 -4.1 -4.7 -5.9
2010 -2.5 1
Table 8
Russia’s key macroeconomic and financial indicators
Note. T able 8 is based on data compiled by the Bank of Russia, the Federal State Statistics Service, the Ministry of Finance of the
Russian Federation and the Federal Treasury.
Statistical Addendum
2010 Q1 35
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Socio-economic indicators
Nominal imputed average
monthly per employee wage
rubles
2008 15,424 16,962 17,556 18,966
2009 17,441 18,419 18,673 20,670
2010 19,485
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2008 128.0 129.2 129.0 119.5
2009 112.8 108.0 105.7 108.4
2010 110.5
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2008 128.0 128.6 128.7 127.2
2009 112.8 110.3 108.6 108.5
2010 110.5
Real imputed average monthly per employee wage, as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2008 113.4 112.5 112.2 105.0
2009 99.2 96.1 94.8 99.3
2010 103.1
Household money income (per capita monthly average), rubles
2008 12,278.1 14,828.4 15,662.4 16,973.9
2009 14,002.1 16,983.8 16,696.2 19,859.4
2010 15,923.1
Household real disposable
money income
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2008 107.8 106.1 104.9 93.7
2009 100.7 103.4 96.6 108.2
2010 107.6
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2008 107.8 … … 102.3
2009 100.7 102.1 100.0 102.3
2010 107.6
Household spending, as % of
income
purchase of goods and services
2008 77.1 71.8 74.4 73.7
2009 76.4 66.8 70.8 64.8
2010 72.8
compulsory payments and contributions
2008 12.1 12.4 12.6 12.0
2009 11.2 10.3 10.9 10.3
2010 9.9
growth in savings
2008 8.3 7.1 4.6 2.2
2009 8.7 17.0 12.8 17.7
2010 15.8
foreign exchange purchase
2008 6.9 4.7 5.7 13.6
2009 10.3 3.5 6.0 3.5
2010 3.2
cash on hand
2008 -4.4 4.0 2.7 -1.5
2009 -6.6 2.4 -0.5 3.7
2010 -1.7
Average imputed pension, total, rubles
2008 3,823 4,044 4,383 4,545
2009 4,614 5,151 5,330 5,670
2010 7,126
Real imputed pension
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2008 119.0 113.9 122.7 116.9
2009 106.1 113.3 109.1 114.2
2010 144.1
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2008 119.0 116.4 118.6 118.1
2009 106.1 109.8 109.5 110.7
2010 144.1
Total number of unemployed
(calculated using ILO
methodology)
million
2008 5.1 4.3 4.5 5.4
2009 6.8 6.5 6.0 6.1
2010 6.6
as % of economically active population
2008 6.7 5.6 5.9 7.1
2009 9.1 8.6 7.8 8.0
2010 8.8
Table 8 (continued)
36 2010 Q1
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Foreign economic activities
Price of Urals crude
over period since start of year, $/barrel
2008 93.7 105.3 107.6 93.9
2009 43.2 50.5 56.3 60.7
2010 75.0
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2008 173.7 176.3 168.2 135.1
2009 46.1 48.0 52.3 64.6
2010 173.7
Exports of goods
over period since start of year, $ billion
2008 110.1 236.8 373.6 471.6
2009 57.3 125.4 207.8 303.4
2010 91.3 2
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2008 153.6 152.4 152.5 133.1
2009 52.0 52.9 55.6 64.3
2010 159.5 2
Imports of goods
over period since start of year, $ billion
2008 60.2 135.7 218.6 291.9
2009 38.5 82.4 131.5 191.8
2010 45.3 2
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2008 140.8 142.0 142.0 130.6
2009 63.9 60.7 60.1 65.7
2010 117.8 2
Current account (over period since start of year), $ billion
2008 38.9 65.6 95.0 103.7
2009 9.7 17.0 32.7 49.0
2010 33.9 2
Private sector net capital outflow (inflow) (over period since start of year), $ billion
2008 -24.5 15.6 -3.5 -133.9
2009 -35.0 -30.9 -65.1 -56.9
2010 -12.9 2
Foreign investment in Russia’s non-financial sector
(Rosstat data)
over period since start of year, $ billion
2008 17.3 46.5 75.8 103.8
2009 12.0 32.2 54.7 81.9
2010 13.1
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2008 70.1 77.1 86.2 85.8
2009 69.7 69.1 72.2 79.0
2010 109.3
of which:
direct
over period since start of year, $ billion
2008 5.6 11.1 19.2 27.0
2009 3.2 6.1 10.0 15.9
2010 2.6
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2008 57.2 70.0 97.7 97.2
2009 57.0 55.0 51.9 58.9
2010 82.4
portfolio
over period since start of year, $ billion
2008 0.1 1.2 1.3 1.4
2009 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.9
2010 0.3
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2008 62.5 104.4 83.7 33.7
2009 93.5 74.9 78.6 62.3
2010 2.5 times
other
over period since start of year, $ billion
2008 11.5 34.3 55.3 75.3
2009 8.7 25.2 43.7 65.1
2010 10.2
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2008 78.7 79.0 82.8 84.7
2009 75.6 73.5 79.1 86.5
2010 117.1
Russia’s international reserves (as of end of period), $ billion
2008 512.6 569.0 556.8 426.3
2009 383.8 412.5 413.4 439.0
2010 447.0
Real ruble exchange rate indices, last month of
quarter (growth as % of December of previous
year) 3
ruble vs. US dollar
2008 6.5 8.5 3.2 -1.1
2009 -15.4 -5.0 -3.9 -0.4
2010 3.6
ruble vs. euro
2008 0.6 3.4 6.2 5.0
2009 -12.0 -7.0 -9.0 -6.5
2010 11.7
effective rate
2008 1.5 3.3 3.0 4.3
2009 -10.0 -4.2 -5.6 -3.9
2010 7.4
Table 8 (continued)
Statistical Addendum
2010 Q1 37
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Financial market indicators (including Sberbank rates)
Average for period
Overnight interbank credit
rate, % p.a.
in rubles
2008 3.9 4.1 6.0 8.6
2009 11.6 7.7 7.1 5.5
2010 4.2
in US dollars
2008 3.2 2.2 2.2 0.7
2009 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
2010 0.2
OFZ yields 4, % p.a.
2008 6.7 6.9 7.5 8.7
2009 10.5 10.3 10.6 9.1
2010 7.9
Interest rate on household
time deposits, % p.a.
up to 1 year in rubles
2008 7.0 7.1 7.5 9.0
2009 10.0 10.8 10.7 10.2
2010 8.5
over 1 year in rubles
2008 7.4 8.0 8.5 9.1
2009 10.0 10.3 9.3 9.2
2010 7.7
up to 1 year in US dollars
2008 5.1 5.8 5.3 6.5
2009 6.0 5.3 5.5 5.2
2010 4.3
over 1 year in US dollars
2008 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.8
2009 6.5 6.1 5.7 5.5
2010 4.9
Interest rate on credit to non-
financial organisations, % p.a.
up to 1 year in rubles
2008 10.9 11.2 12.0 14.9
2009 16.6 15.8 14.9 13.9
2010 12.8
over 1 year in rubles
2008 12.3 12.8 13.6 13.8
2009 15.1 16.2 15.8 14.7
2010 13.9
up to 1 year in US dollars
2008 8.1 8.0 8.9 10.9
2009 10.7 10.1 10.0 9.3
2010 8.3
over 1 year in US dollars
2008 9.3 9.9 9.4 11.3
2009 12.7 11.6 10.7 9.0
2010 10.3
Interest rate on ruble-denominated notes discounted by banks, % p.a. 2008 10.7 11.0 12.1 14.1
2009 15.7 14.3 14.0 11.8
Interest rate on ruble-denominated notes issued by non-financial organisations and discounted
by credit institutions, % p.a. 5 2010 14.1
Interest rate on ruble-denominated notes issued by credit institutions and discounted
by credit institutions, % p.a. 5 2010 9.3
MICEX rate in «tomorrow» trades, ruble/US dollar
2008 24.2286 23.6190 24.2718 27.2941
2009 34.4761 32.2032 31.3160 29.4737
2010 29.8318
As of end of quarter
RTS index, points
2008 2,053.93 2,303.34 1,211.84 631.89
2009 689.63 987.02 1,254.52 1,444.61
2010 1,572.48
Refinance rate, % p.a.
2008 10.25 10.75 11.00 13.00
2009 13.00 11.50 10.00 8.75
2010 8.25
Table 8 (continued)
38 2010 Q1
Table 8 (end)
Year 1.01 1.04 1.07 1.10
Monetary indicators
M0, billion rubles
2008 3,702.2 3,475.5 3,724.9 3,904.2
2009 3,794.8 3,278.3 3,522.5 3,485.6
2010 4,038.1 3,986.1
M2, billion rubles
2008 13,272.1 13,382.9 14,244.7 14,374.6
2009 13,493.2 12,111.7 13,161.0 13,649.5
2010 15,697.7 15,996.5
Obligations included in broad money, billion rubles
2008 14,636.7 14,918.3 15,926.6 16,067.8
2009 16,774.7 16,308.4 17,055.4 17,523.4
2010 19,520.1 1 19,652.8 1
Net foreign assets, billion rubles
2008 9,914.1 10,535.2 11,274.3 12,284.5
2009 12,191.4 12,881.1 13,043.1 13,232.1
2010 13,916.1 1 13,761.4 1
Domestic claims, billion rubles
2008 8,325.9 8,437.2 8,760.6 8,614.9
2009 10,645.1 10,307.4 11,076.4 11,716.8
2010 13,345.7 1 13,474.8 1
Broad monetary base, billion rubles
2008 5,513.3 4,871.4 5,422.9 5,317.8
2009 5,578.7 4,298.8 4,967.6 4,803.7
2010 6,467.3 6,363.9
Balances of correspondent accounts, billion rubles
2008 802.2 596.3 592.4 702.9
2009 1,027.6 431.7 471.4 545.4
2010 900.3 579.5
Monetisation of the economy (by M2 aggregate), %
2008 31.9 32.8 32.9 32.7
2009 32.9 32.7 33.1 33.5
2010 33.8 35.2 1
Money multiplier
by broad monetary base
2008 2.41 2.75 2.63 2.70
2009 2.42 2.82 2.65 2.84
2010 2.43 2.51
change since start of year, %
2008 10.3 6 14.1 9.1 12.3
2009 0.5 6 16.5 9.5 17.5
2010 0.4 6 3.6
Foreign exchange rates
rubles per US dollar
2008 24.55 23.50 23.41 25.37
2009 29.39 33.90 31.04 30.01
2010 30.19 29.50
rubles per euro
2008 35.93 37.09 36.97 36.50
2009 41.43 44.89 43.85 43.89
2010 43.46 39.57
1 Preliminary data.
2 Estimate.
3 (+) signifies appreciation of the ruble. (-) signifies depreciation of the ruble.
4 OFZ effective market portfolio indicator.
5 Due to the entry into force of Bank of Russia Instruction No. 2332-U of November 12, 2009, the structure of indicators used to characterize the credit institutions’ interest rate policy on
the promissory note market has changed. In particular, the uniform indicator of yields on promissory notes discounted by banks has been replaced by two indicators: yields on discount notes
issued by credit institutions and yields on discount notes issued by non-financial organisations. The indicators are calculated only for transactions in ruble-denominated promissory notes.
6 Relative to beginning of previous year.
Statistical Addendum
2010 Q1 39
Table 9
Bank of Russia interest rates in January-April 2010 (% p.a.)
Instrument Liquidity provision/
absorption period
From 1.01.10
to 23.02.10
From 24.02.10
to 28.03.10
From 29.03.10
to 29.04.10 From 30.04.10
Providing liquidity at offered bids (including by auction)
Repo operations 1
1 day 6.00 5.75 5.50 5.25
7 days 6.00 5.75 5.50 5.25
3 months 7.50 7.25 7.00 6.75
6 months 8.00 7.75 7.50 7.25
1 year 8.50 8.25 8.00 7.75
Currency swap operations 2 1 day 8.75 8.50 8.25 8.00
Unsecured loans up to 1 year Minimum rate is set when auction is announced
Lombard loans 1, 3
7 days 5.25
14 days 6.00 5.75 5.50
3 months 7.50 7.25 7.00 6.75
6 months 8.00 7.75 7.50 7.25
1 year 8.50 8.25 8.00 7.75
Providing liquidity at fixed rates
Overnight loans 3, 4 1 day 8.75 8.50 8.25 8.00
Lombard loans 3
1 day 7.75 7.50 7.25 7.00
7 days 7.75 7.50 7.25 7.00
30 days 7.75 7.50 7.25 7.00
Repo operations
1 day 7.75 7.50 7.25 7.00
7 days 7.75 7.50 7.25 7.00
1 year 8.50 8.25 8.00 7.75
Loans secured by «non-market» assets
or guarantees 4
up to 90 days 7.75 7.50 7.25 7.00
91 to 180 days 8.25 8.00 7.75 7.50
181 to 365 days 8.75 8.50 8.25 8.00
Absorbing liquidity at fixed rates
Deposit operations
Overnight 2.75 2.50
Tom-next, spot-next and demand 3.50 3.25 3.00 2.75
1 week, spot-week 4.00 3.75 3.50 3.25
1 Minimum interest rate set by Bank of Russia Board of Directors.
2 Interest rate set on the ruble part when determining the minimum offered swap difference.
3 Pursuant to Bank of Russia Regulation No. 236-P of August 4, 2003.
4 Pursuant to Bank of Russia Regulation No. 312-P of November 12, 2007.
40 2010 Q1
Table 10
Credit institutions’ required reserve ratios
(from July 1, 2007 to October 31, 2009, %)
Required reserve ratio for bank obligations
to non-resident banks in Russian
and foreign currency
Required reserve ratio for obligations
to individuals in Russian currency
Required reserve ratio for other bank
obligations in Russian and foreign currency
July 1, 2007—October 10, 2007 4.5 4.0 4.5
October 11, 2007—January 14, 2008 3.5 3.0 3.5
January 15, 2008—February 29, 2008 4.5 4.0 4.5
March 1, 2008—June 30, 2008 5.5 4.5 5.0
July 1, 2008—August 31, 2008 7.0 5.0 5.5
September 1, 2008—September 17, 2008 8.5 5.5 6.0
September 18, 2008—October 14, 2008 4.5 1.5 2.0
October 15, 2008—April 30, 2009 0.5 0.5 0.5
May 1, 2009—May 31, 2009 1.0 1.0 1.0
June 1, 2009—June 30, 2009 1.5 1.5 1.5
July 1, 2009—July 31, 2009 2.0 2.0 2.0
August 1, 2009—October 31, 2009 2.5 2.5 2.5
Table 11
Credit institutions’ required reserve ratios
(from November 1, 2009 up to present, %)
Required reserve ratio for
obligations to non-resident
corporates in Russian
currency
Required reserve ratio for
obligations to non-resident
individuals in Russian
currency
Required reserve ratio for
obligations to individuals
in Russian currency
Required reserve ratio for
obligations to individuals
in foreign currency
Required reserve ratio for
other bank obligations
in Russian currency
Required reserve ratio for
other bank obligations
in foreign currency
November 1, 2009— 2.5
© The Central Bank of the Russian Federation, 2010
Research and Information Department