SARB MPC Statement - September 2022
Central bank: sarb | Type: statement | Date: 2022-09-22

22 September 2022
STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE
In the wake of the Covid -19 pandemic and heightened geo-political tensions, the
global economy has entered a period of persistently high inflation and weaker
economic growth. Many developing economies exited the pandemic with less than full
recovery and high debt levels.
Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to impair production and trade of a wide range of
energy, food and other commodities. The supply of energy to the Euro Area is limited
as winter approaches , placing immense strain on household s, business es and
governments. With rapid inflation and monetary policy normalization, the United States
may also experience slower economic growth. While China’s recovery from the Covid-
19 lockdowns has strengthened, economic growth is expected to remain below longer-
term trends.
MPC Statement 22 September 2022 Page 2
Taking these and other factors into account, the SARB’s forecast for global growth in
2022 is revised down from 3.3% in the July meeting to 3.0%, and is lowered to 2.0%
(from 2.5%) for 2023.1
Although policy settings in advanced economies remain accommodative, policy
normalization has accelerated , and higher yields are tightening global financial
conditions. Asset values in major markets have declined sharply, and i nvestor
appetite for riskier assets has weakened further.
This year the SARB expects the South African economy to grow by 1.9%, (from 2.0%).
Growth in the first quarter of this year surprised to the upside, at 1.7%. In the second
quarter, flooding in Kwa-Zulu Natal and more extensive load-shedding contributed to
a contraction of 0.7%. Growth in the third and fourth quarters is forecast to be 0.4%
and 0.3%, respectively.
The economy is forecast to expand by 1.4% in 2023 and by 1.7% in 2024, above
previous projections.2 Private investment has strengthened on the back of the
recovery, but public sector investment remains weak. Household spending remains
supportive of growth , but is likely to soften next year. Tourism, hospitality and
construction should see stronger recoveries as the year progresses.
1 Global growth in the QPM model is a trade-weighted average of South Africa’s trading partners. Global
growth in 2024 is revised down to 2.4% from 2.5% at the time of the July meeting. The International Monetary
Fund’s (IMF) July forecast expected global growth of 3.2% in 2022 and 2.9% in 2023. An update to the World
Economic Outlook will be released in October.
2 The growth forecast includes expected changes in the policy rate as given by the QPM.
MPC Statement 22 September 2022 Page 3
With a low rate of potential, our current growth forecast leaves the output gap broadly
unchanged.3 The output gap is still expected to turn positive in the second quarter of
2023.
After revisions, the risks to the medium-term domestic growth outlook are assessed to
be balanced. While negative global shocks and loadshedding will continue to create
headwinds to growth, household spending and investment are more supportive.
Commodity price movements in recent months have been mixed. The export price of
coal has increased alongside oil, while prices for metals have declined. While o il
prices currently sit at around US$91 per barrel, we expect them to stay higher than we
did in July, and to average US$105 per barrel for 2022, US$92 per barrel in 2023 and
US$85 per barrel in 2024.4
South Africa’s export commodity price basket has come down from earlier peaks and
is now forecast to rise by 2.3% for the year as a whole (down from 3.2%), before falling
in 2023 by about 17.6% and by a further 10.0% in 2024. As a result of these export
and import developments , t he current account balance is expected to register a
surplus of 0.2% of GDP this year, falling to a deficit of 1.0% in 2023 and 1.6% in 2024.5
Although near term fiscal risk has eased on the back of better tax revenue, financing
conditions for rand -denominated bonds have worsened . Ten -year bond yields
currently trade at about 11.0%.
3 Potential growth for 2022 is unchanged at 0.5%, 0.8% in 2023 and 1.1% in 2024.
4 The Brent crude oil assumptions in July were US$108, US$92, and US$85, respectively.
5 In July, the current account surplus for 2022 was expected to be 2.0% of GDP, 0.4% in 2023 and -0.4% in
2024.
MPC Statement 22 September 2022 Page 4
Policy normalisation in major economies and the slowdown in China have contributed
to rand depreciation in recent months. The implied starting point for the rand forecast
is R16.91 to the US dollar, compared with R16.10 at the time of the previous meeting.6
While economic growth is slowing globally, inflation continues to surprise to the upside.
Sustained policy accommodation, supply shortage s and other restrictions have
sharply increased the prices of many goods , services and commodities.7 Producer
price increases continue to pass-through to wages and consumer prices globally. Our
estimate for inflation in the G3 is revised higher to 7.0% in 2022 (from 6.9%), up to
3.5% in 2023 (from 3.0%), and slightly higher at 2.1% in 2024.8
Since the previous meeting, the easing of global oil prices has contributed to a less
aggressive rise in fuel price inflation for this year, at 33.7% (down from 38.8%). Further
moderation in fuel price inflation is expected in 2023, averaging 1.7% ( down from
5.7%). Local electricity price inflation is slightly lower at 10.9% in 2022, 8.9% in 2023,
and is unchanged at 10% in 2024.
Despite reduced global food price inflation, local food price inflation is revised up and
is now expected to be 8.1% in 2022 (up from 7.4%). Food price inflation is revised
lower to 5.6% (down from 6.2%) in 2023 and remains unchanged at 4.2% in 2024.
The Bank’s forecast of headline inflation for this year is unchanged at 6.5%. For 2023,
headline inflation is revised lower to 5.3% (down from 5.7%), as a result of lower food,
6 The rand has depreciated by about 6.3% to the US dollar since the May meeting and 7.2% year to date.
7 The UN FAO food index declined sharply in July, falling by 8.6% month to month, largely on the back of an
agreement to reopen Black Sea ports. Consequently, the assumption used for the forecast for USD-
denominated world food prices in 2022 was revised lower from 22.3% to 17.8%.
8 The G3 comprises the United States, the Eurozone, and Japan . The latest CPI inflation in the respective
components sits at 8.3%, 9.1% and 3.0%.
MPC Statement 22 September 2022 Page 5
fuel and core inflation forecasts for next year. Headline inflation of 4.6% is expected in
2024 (down from 4.7%).
Our forecast for core inflation is unchanged at 4.3% in 2022, and lower than previously
expected at 5.4% (down from 5.6%) in 2023 . The forecast for 2024 is also slightly
lower at 4.8% (from 4.9%). Services price inflation is broadly unchanged. Core goods
price inflation however is forecast lower in each year, largely due to a lower starting
point for vehicles and non -alcoholic beverages inflation .9 Average salaries are
forecast to rise by less than at the time of the July meeting, at 5.1% in 2022, 6.7% in
2023 and 5.6% in 2024.10
The risks to the inflation outlook are assessed to the upside. While global producer
price and food inflation has eased, Russia’s war in the Ukraine continues, with
adverse effects on global prices. Oil prices increased strongly from the start of the war,
to around US$130 per barrel , and may rise again from today’s level as stresses in
energy markets intensify. Electricity and other administered prices continue to present
clear medium-term risks. Given below-inflation assumptions for public sector wage
growth and high petrol and food price inflation, considerable risk still attaches to the
forecast for average salaries.
Higher than expected inflation has pushed major central banks to accelerate the
normalisation of policy rates, tightening global financial conditions and raising the risk
profiles of economies needing foreign capital. G3 interest rate levels for the forecast
9 Core goods refers to total CPI goods excluding food and NAB, fuel and energy , whereas services include all
surveyed services within the CPI basket. Core goods inflation is expected to be 4.8% in 2022 (down from
5.2%), 5.5% in 2023 (down from 5.9%), and 4.9% in 2024 (down from 5.1%).
10 Average salaries were expected to be 5.6%, 7.3%, and 5.7% at the time of the July meeting.
MPC Statement 22 September 2022 Page 6
period are now expected to be somewhat higher than in July.11 On balance, and with
few exceptions, capital flows and market volatility will be elevated for emerging market
assets and currencies. The rand depreciated by about 3.0% to the USD since the July
meeting, and additional tightening of global conditions will present further risks to the
currency.
The risks to inflation identified over the past year have been realized, pushing up South
Africa’s headline inflation rate and inflation expectations . Average surveyed
expectations of future inflation have increased to 6.5% for 2022 and 5.9% for 2023.12
Expectations for inflation based on market surveys have increased to 6.7%.13 Long-
term inflation expectations derived from the break-even rates in the bond market have
moderated slightly to about 7%.14
In the second quarter of this year, headline inflation breached the target range and is
expected to remain above it until the second quarter of 2023. By the fourth quarter of
2024, we expect headline inflation to revert to the mid-point of the target range, on the
back of declining fuel and food inflation. The forecast takes into account the policy rate
trajectory indicated by the Bank’s Quarterly Projection M odel (QPM). As usual, the
repo rate projection from the QPM remains a broad policy guide , changing from
meeting to meeting in response to new data and risks.
11 The weighted average of G3 policy rates is forecast to be 3.1% in 2023 (up from 3.0%) and 3.2% in 2024 (up
from 3.1%).
12 For 2024, the BER survey of inflation expectations in Q3 moderated to 5.4% (from 5.6%). The Q2 survey had
2022 expected inflation at 6.0% and 5.6% for 2023.
13 Market analysts (Reuters Econometer) in September at the median expect inflation to be higher at 6.7%
(from 6.5% in July) in 2022, 5.4% (5.0% from July) in 2023 and 4.6% in 2024 (4.4% from July).
14 Market-based rates are calculated from the break-even inflation rate, which is the yield differential between
conventional and inflation-linked bonds. These now sit at about 6.90% for the 5-year and 6.92% on the 10-year
breakeven. 15-year break-even inflation sits at 7.0%.
MPC Statement 22 September 2022 Page 7
Against this backdrop, the MPC decided to increase the repurchase rate by 75 basis
points to 6.25% per year, with effect from the 23rd of September 2022. Three members
of the Committee preferred the announced increase . Two members preferred a 100
basis points increase.
The level of the repurchase rate is now closer to the level prevailing before the start of
the pandemic. The revised repurchase rate path remains supportive of credit demand
in the near term, while raising rates to levels more consistent with the current view of
inflation risks. The aim of policy is to anchor inflation expectations more firmly around
the mid-point of the target band and to increase confidence of hitting the inflation target
in 2024.15
Guiding inflation back towards the mid -point of the target band can reduce the
economic costs of high inflation and enable lower interest rates in the future. Achieving
a prudent public debt level, increasing the supply of energy, moderating administered
price inflation and keeping wage growth in line with productivity gains would enhance
the effectiveness of monetary policy and its transmission to the broader economy.
Economic and financial conditions are expected to remain more volatile for the
foreseeable future. In this uncertain environment, monetary policy decisions will
continue to be data dependent and sensitive to the balance of risks to the outlook. The
MPC will seek to look through temporary price shocks and focus on potential second
round effects and the risks of de -anchoring inflation expectations . The Bank will
continue to closely monitor funding markets for stress.
15 The forecasted trajectory for the repurchase rate implies a rise in the inflation-adjusted repo rate from -1.7%
for 2021 to -1.7% for 2022, 1.4% for 2023, and 2.2% in 2024. The real repurchase rate calculation here is based
on the 1-quarter ahead inflation forecast and are annual average rates.
MPC Statement 22 September 2022 Page 8
Lesetja Kganyago
GOVERNOR
The next statement of the Monetary Policy Committee will be released on 24
November 2022.
Contact person:
Thoraya Pandy
media@resbank.co.za