Bank of Canada maintains policy rate at 2¼% - Bank of Canada
Central bank: boc | Type: statement | Date: 2026-01-28

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Media Relations
Ottawa, Ontario
January 28, 2026
The outlook for the global and Canadian economies is little changed relative to the projection in the October
Monetary Policy Report
(MPR). However, the outlook is vulnerable to unpredictable US trade policies and geopolitical risks.
Economic growth in the United States continues to outpace expectations and is projected to remain solid, driven by AI-related investment and consumer spending. Tariffs are pushing up US inflation, although their effect is expected to fade gradually later this year. In the euro area, growth has been supported by activity in service sectors and will get additional support from fiscal policy. China’s GDP growth is expected to slow gradually, as weakening domestic demand offsets strength in exports. Overall, the Bank expects global growth to average about 3% over the projection horizon.
Global financial conditions have remained accommodative overall. Recent weakness in the US dollar has pushed the Canadian dollar above 72 cents, roughly where it had been since the October MPR. Oil prices have been fluctuating in response to geopolitical events and, going forward, are assumed to be slightly below the levels in the October report.
US trade restrictions and uncertainty continue to disrupt growth in Canada. After a strong third quarter, GDP growth in the fourth quarter likely stalled. Exports continue to be buffeted by US tariffs, while domestic demand appears to be picking up. Employment has risen in recent months. Still, the unemployment rate remains elevated at 6.8% and relatively few businesses say they plan to hire more workers.
Economic growth is projected to be modest in the near term as population growth slows and Canada adjusts to US protectionism. In the projection, consumer spending holds up and business investment strengthens gradually, with fiscal policy providing some support. The Bank projects growth of 1.1% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027, broadly in line with the October projection. A key source of uncertainty is the upcoming review of the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement.
CPI inflation picked up in December to 2.4%, boosted by base-year effects linked to last winter’s GST/HST holiday. Excluding the effect of changes in taxes, inflation has been slowing since September. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have eased from 3% in October to around 2½% in December. Inflation was 2.1% in 2025 and the Bank expects inflation to stay close to the 2% target over the projection period, with trade-related cost pressures offset by excess supply.
Monetary policy is focused on keeping inflation close to the 2% target while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. Governing Council judges the current policy rate remains appropriate, conditional on the economy evolving broadly in line with the outlook we published today. However, uncertainty is heightened and we are monitoring risks closely. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond. The Bank is committed to ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is March 18, 2026. The Bank’s next MPR will be released on April 29, 2026.
Content Type(s)
Press releases
Monetary Policy Report—January 2026
The Canadian economy continues to adjust to US tariffs and the new global trade landscape. This adjustment will take time and growth is expected to be modest. Inflation is projected to remain near the 2% target.
Press Conference: Monetary Policy Report – January 2026
Release of the Monetary Policy Report
– Press conference by Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers (10:30 (ET) approx.).
Monetary Policy Report Press Conference Opening Statement
Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the
Monetary Policy Report
and the key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the monetary policy decision.