Monetary policy assessment of 25 September 2025
Central bank: snb | Type: statement | Date: 2025-09-25

Press release
Monetary policy assessment of 25 September 2025
25 September 2025
Inflationary pressure is virtually unchanged compared to the previous quarter. Monetary policy helps to keep inflation within the range consistent with price stability and supports economic development. The SNB will continue to monitor the situation and adjust its monetary policy if necessary, in order to ensure price stability.
Inflation has increased slightly since the last monetary policy assessment. It rose from -0.1% in May to 0.2% in August. This increase was mainly attributable to higher inflation in tourism and on imported goods.
Inflationary pressure has barely changed compared to June. While inflation is likely to be slightly higher in the short term, in the medium term the conditional inflation forecast remains unchanged. The forecast is within the range of price stability over the entire forecast horizon (cf. chart). As in the previous quarter, it puts average annual inflation at 0.2% for 2025, 0.5% for 2026 and 0.7% for 2027 (cf. table). The forecast is based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0% over the entire forecast horizon.
Global economic growth slowed somewhat in the first half of 2025. Global economic developments are being dampened by US tariffs and ongoing high uncertainty.
In its baseline scenario, the SNB anticipates that growth in the global economy will be subdued over the coming quarters. Inflation in the US is likely to remain elevated for some time. In the euro area, on the other hand, inflation is expected to stay close to target.
The scenario for the global economy remains subject to high uncertainty. For example, trade barriers could be raised further, leading to a more pronounced slowdown in the global economy. However, it also cannot be ruled out that the global economy will prove more resilient than expected.
Economic growth in Switzerland was weak in the second quarter. After increasing strongly in the first quarter, GDP expanded by just 0.5%. The major fluctuations in the first half of the year were principally due to the pharmaceuticals industry. Value added there rose strongly in the first quarter because deliveries to the US were brought forward. A corresponding countermovement occurred in the second quarter, while the services sectors supported the economy. Unemployment has risen further in recent months.
The economic outlook for Switzerland has deteriorated due to significantly higher US tariffs. The tariffs are likely to dampen exports and investment especially. Companies in the machinery and watchmaking industries are particularly affected. To date, the impact on other industries - notably in the services sector - has been limited. Many economic indicators therefore still point to a stable situation and moderate growth. The SNB continues to expect GDP growth of 1% to 1.5% for 2025 as a whole. As a result of the tariffs and the high level of uncertainty, the SNB expects growth of just under 1% for 2026. In this environment, unemployment is likely to continue rising.
The economic outlook for Switzerland remains uncertain. The main risks are US trade policy and global economic developments.
More detailed information on the monetary policy decision can be found in the
introductory remarks by the Governing Board
(available on the SNB website from 10 am on 25 September 2025).
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Monetary policy assessment of 25 September 2025
Chart: Conditional inflation forecast of September 2025
Table: Observed inflation in September 2025
Table: Conditional inflation forecast of September 2025