SARB MPC Statement - November 2022
Central bank: sarb | Type: statement | Date: 2022-11-24

24 November 2022
STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE
High inflation and weak economic growth continue to shape global conditions
alongside monetary and fiscal policy responses. Russia’s war in the Ukraine drags
on, impairing trade and raising prices of a wide range of energy, food and other
commodities. Growth in the United States is set to weaken, and remains low in China.
Although energy constraints have eased somewhat in the Euro Area, recession risk
is high. Additionally, a number of developing economies face debt distress,
exacerbated by tighter global financial conditions.1
Policy normalisation has accelerated and mo netary conditions are likely to tighten
further to ensure inflation declines from its current high rates. With long-term borrowing
costs high and fiscal positions extended, there is less policy space available for major
counter-cyclical efforts to increase economic growth. In several economies, including
South Africa, ongoing consolidation of fiscal positions will support disinflation. Asset
1 According to the IMF’s October 2022 Global Financial Stability Report, eight low-income countries are in debt
distress and 30 are at high risk of distress (out of 69 countries considered low -income countries—among
which, there are some frontier markets).
MPC Statement 24 November 2022 Page 2
values in major markets have also declined sharply, and i nvestor appetite for riskier
assets remains weak.
Taking these and other factors into account, the SARB’s forecast for global growth in
2023 is revised lower to 1.9% (from 2.0%).2 The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF)
October’s forecast for global growth is 3.2% in 2022 and 2.7% in 2023.
We now expect the South African economy to grow by 1.8% (from 1.9%) this year.
Despite considerable volatility in monthly indicators, GDP g rowth of 0.4% is still
expected in the third quarter. Fourth quarter growth is forecast to be only 0.1%, largely
due to record load-shedding.
Over the medium term , and despite stronger private investment, the forecast takes
into account lower commodity prices, higher inflation and interest rates. On the supply
side, the forecast incorporates an assumption of increased load-shedding, which could
deduct 0.6 percentage points in 2023.
As a result of these factors, the economy is forecast to expand by 1.1% in 2023 (from
1.4%) and by 1.4% in 2024 (from 1.7%), below previous projections.3 GDP growth of
1.5% is forecast for 2025.
With a low rate of potential, our current growth forecast leaves the output gap slightly
larger in the near term, before closing in the third quarter of 2023.4
2 Global growth in the QPM model is a trade-weighted average of South Africa’s trading partners. Global
growth in 2024 is forecast unchanged at 2.4%, before rising to 3.1% in 2025.
3 The growth forecast includes expected changes in the policy rate as given by the QPM.
4 Potential growth for 2022 is revised lower at 0.4%, 0.5% in 2023 and unchanged at 1.1% in 2024. For 2025,
potential growth is forecast at 1.5%.
MPC Statement 24 November 2022 Page 3
After revisions, the risks to the medium-term domestic growth outlook are assessed to
the downside.
Commodity price movements in recent months have been mixed , with oil prices
relatively stable and export prices lower . Compared to September , our oil price
forecast is broadly unchanged, averaging US$102 per barrel for 2022 and US$92 per
barrel in 2023.5 South Africa’s export commodity price basket has come down from
earlier peaks.6
As a result of weaker export developments, the current account balance is expected
to be -0.2% of GDP this year, falling to -1.5% in 2023 and -1.9% in 2024.7 The current
account balance in 2025 is expected to be -2.1% of GDP.
Although near term fiscal risk has eased on the back of better tax revenue, a weaker
commodity price trajectory than currently expected could increase risk. F inancing
conditions for rand-denominated bonds have been generally tight and more volatile in
recent months. Ten-year bond yields currently trade at about 10.7%.
Policy normalisation in major economies and the slow er growth in China have
contributed to depreciation of many emerging market currencies, including the rand.
The implied starting point for the rand forecast is R17.76 (22q4) to the US dollar,
compared with R16.91 (22q3) at the time of the previous meeting.
5 The Brent crude oil assumptions in September were US$105, US$92, and US$85, respectively. The current
forecast is for oil prices remains unchanged at US$85 for 2024 and is US$80 for 2025.
6 Commodity export prices are now forecast to rise by 1.2% for the year as a whole (down from 2.3%), before
falling in 2023 by about 18.1% and by a further 11.0% in 2024.
7 In September, a current account balance for 2022 was expected to be 0.2% of GDP, -1.0% in 2023 and -1.6%
in 2024.
MPC Statement 24 November 2022 Page 4
Globally, economic growth is slowing and prices have fallen for some goods and
transport services. However, price pressures continue to s pread from goods to
services and wages.8 Our estimate for inflation in the G3 is revised higher to 7.3% in
2022 (from 7.0%), and 4.1% in 2023 (from 3.5%). The forecast for 2024 is unchanged
at 2.1%.9
Even though South Africa’s fuel price inflation for the year remains exceedingly high,
some easing of global o il price s has led to forecast revisions in the last few MPC
meetings. Fuel price inflation for this year is now forecast at 33.3% (down from
33.5%), falling to 0.8% in 2023 (down from 1.1%). Local electricity price inflation is
slightly higher at 10.7% in 2022, 9.0% in 2023, and is unchanged at 10% in 2024.
Global food price inflation has declined. However, local food price inflation is revised
up due in part to the weaker exchange rate and is now expected to be 8.8% in 2022
(up from 8.1%). Food price inflation is revised higher to 6.2% (from 5.5%) in 2023 and
unchanged at 4.2% in 2024.
The Bank’s forecast of headline inflation for this year and next is slightly higher at 6.7%
and 5.4%, respectively. In 2024 and 2025, we expect headline inflation of 4.5%.
Our forecast for c ore inflation is unchanged at 4.3% in 2022 , and is higher than
previously expected at 5.5% (from 5.4%) in 2023. The forecast for 2024 is unchanged
at 4.8%, and 4.5% is projected for 2025. Services inflation is broadly unchanged, and
continues to be driven by expected spillover effects and steadily rising unit labour
8 Inflation in agricultural commodities decelerated sharply in 2022Q3 with the UN FAO Food Price index (FPPI)
increasing by 8.7% (compared to 25.5% increase in 2022Q2), helped lower by a sharp decline in cereals and
vegetable oils. Consequently, the assumption used for the forecast for USD-denominated world food prices in
2022 was revised lower from 17.8% to 14.7%.
9 The G3 comprises the United States, the Eurozone, and Japan. The latest CPI inflation in the respective
components sits at 7.7%, 10.6% and 3.7%. We expect G3 inflation of 2.0% in 2025.
MPC Statement 24 November 2022 Page 5
costs. Core goods price inflation is forecast somewhat higher at 5.7% for next year.10
The forecast for average salary growth is broadly unchanged.11
Risks to the inflation outlook are assessed to the upside. Despite easing of global
producer price and food inflation, Russia’s war in the Ukraine continues, with adverse
effects on global prices generally. The o il market is expected to remain tight, with
upside risk to prices. Electricity and other administered prices continue to present clear
medium-term risks. Given low public sector wage assumptions, and high petrol and
food price inflation, considerable risk still attaches to the forecast for average salaries.
Higher than expected inflation has pushed major central banks to accelerate the
normalisation of policy rates. This has tightened global financial conditions and raised
the risk profiles of economies needing foreign capital . G3 interest rate levels for the
forecast period are now expected to be significantly higher than in September.12 On
balance, and with few exceptions, capital flow and market volatility will be elevated for
emerging market assets and currencies. While the rand has recovered somewhat, it
has depreciated by about 7% year to date against the USD.
Inflation expectations increased strongly over this year and remain high. Expectations
of future inflation surveyed in the third quarter of this year had earlier increased to
6.5% for 2022 and 5.9% for 2023.13 Expectations for inflation in 2022 based on market
10 Core goods refers to total CPI goods excluding food and NAB, fuel and energy , whereas services include all
surveyed services within the CPI basket. Core goods inflation is expected to be 4.8% in 2022, 5.7% in 2023,
4.9% in 2024, and 4.5% in 2025.
11 Average salaries were expected to be 5.1%, 6.7%, and 5.6% for 2022, 2023 and 2024 at the time of the
September meeting. For the November meeting, the respective figure are 5.3%, 6.7%, 5.4%, and 4.8% for
2025.
12 The weighted average of G3 policy rates is forecast to be 3.6% in 2023 (up from 3.1%), 3.4% in 2024, and
2.4% in 2025.
13 For 2024, the BER survey of inflation expectations in Q3 moderated to 5.3% (from 5.4%). The Q3 survey had
2022 expected inflation at 6.5% and 5.9% for 2023.
MPC Statement 24 November 2022 Page 6
surveys have increased to 6.8%.14 By contrast, l ong-term inflation expectations
derived from the 5-year break-even rates in the bond market have moderated to
5.27%.15
In the second quarter of this year, headline inflation breached the upper end of the
target range , and is forecast to remain above it until the second quarter of 2023 .
Headline inflation is only expected to sustainably revert to the mid-point of the target
range by around the second quarter of 2024. The forecast takes into account the policy
rate trajectory indicated by the Bank’s Quarterly Projection Model (QPM). As usual,
the repo rate projection from the QPM remains a broad policy guide , changing from
meeting to meeting in response to new data and risks.
Against this backdrop, the MPC decided to increase the repurchase rate by 75 basis
points to 7% per year, with effect from the 25th of November 2022. Three members of
the Committee preferred the announced increase. Two members preferred a 50 basis
points increase.
The level of the repurchase rate is n ow above the level prevailing before the start of
the pandemic. The revised repurchase rate remains supportive of credit demand in
the near term , while raising rates to levels more consistent with the current view of
inflation and risks to it. The aim of policy is to anchor inflation expectations more firmly
14 Market analysts (Reuters Econometer) in November at the median expect inflation to be higher at 6.8%
(from 6.7% in September) in 2022, 5.4% in 2023 and 4.6% in 2024.
15 Market-based rates are calculated from the break-even inflation rate, which is the yield differential between
conventional and inflation-linked bonds. These now sit at about 5.27% for the 5-year and 6.14% on the 10-year
breakeven. 15-year break-even inflation sits at 6.43%.
MPC Statement 24 November 2022 Page 7
around the mid -point of the target band and to increase confidence of attaining the
inflation target sustainably over time.16
Guiding inflation back towards the mid -point of the target band can reduce the
economic costs of high inflation and enable lower interest rates in the future. Achieving
a prudent public debt level, increasing the supply of energy, moderating administered
price inflation and keeping wage growth in line with productivity gains would enhance
the effectiveness of monetary policy and its transmission to the broader economy.
Economic and financial conditions are expected to remain more volatile for the
foreseeable future. In this uncertain environment, monetary policy decisions will
continue to be data dependent and sensitive to the balance of risks to the outlook. The
MPC will seek to look through temporary price shocks and focus on potential second
round effects and the risks of de -anchoring inflation expectations . The Bank will
continue to closely monitor funding markets for stress.
Lesetja Kganyago
GOVERNOR
The next statement of the Monetary Policy Committee will be released on 26
January 2023.
The MPC dates for 2023 are as follows:
24 – 26 January 2023
28 – 30 March 2023
16 The forecasted trajectory for the repurchase rate implies a rise in the inflation-adjusted repo rate from -1.5%
in 2021 to -1.0% in 2022, 1.7% for 2023, and 2.3% in 2024. The real repo level for 2025 is expected to be 2.4%.
The real repurchase rate calculation here is based on the 1 -quarter ahead inflation forecast and are annual
average rates.
MPC Statement 24 November 2022 Page 8
23 – 25 May 2023
18 – 20 July 2023
19 – 21 September 2023
21 – 23 November 2023.
Contact person:
Thoraya Pandy
media@resbank.co.za