NBP MPC Press Release - 2020-02-05
Central bank: nbp | Type: decision | Date: 2020-02-05

Warsaw, 5 February 2020 
 
Information from the meeting of the Monetary Policy 
Council held on 4-5 February 2020 
The Council decided to keep the NBP interest rates unchanged: 
▪ reference rate at 1.50%; 
▪ lombard rate at 2.50%; 
▪ deposit rate at 0.50%; 
▪ rediscount rate at 1.75%. 
 
Incoming data from the global economy indicate a stabilisation of economic growth 
at a relatively low level . At the same time , uncertainty about the global outlook in the 
coming quar ters persists , despite some indicators suggesting some improvement in 
sentiment. In the euro area , economic growth declined in 2019 Q4, amidst the ongoing 
downturn in industry. In the United States, economic conditions continue to be relatively 
strong, although the weaker activity in industry had a curbing effect on economic 
growth in 2019 Q4. In China, GDP growth stabilised in 2019 Q4 at a lower lev el than in 
previous years. 
In the recent period, global oil prices have fallen, following their previous substantial 
rise. At the same time , the prices of many food com modities have increased in recent 
months. As a result , inflation in the external environment of the Polish economy has 
risen somewhat. 
The European Central Bank is keeping the deposit rate below zero, while conducting 
asset purchases and signalling the mai ntenance of loose monetary policy in the coming 
quarters. After the 2019 interest rate cuts , the Federal Reserve is keeping the rates 
unchanged. 
In Poland , economic conditions remain good, despite a slowdown in economic 
growth. Based on the Statistics Poland GDP flash estimate for 2019, it could be estimated 
that GDP growth in 2019 Q4 decreased. GDP growth is supported by the steady 
consumption growth , albeit slightly slower than before , fuelled by favour able labour 
market conditions, strong consumer confidence and social benefit payments. At the same 
time, incoming data indicate further growth in investment and exports. 
CPI inflation stood a t 3.4% y/y in December 2019. Inflation in Dece mber was driven 
up by rising food and fuel prices. At the same t ime, accelerated service price growth 
boosted core inflation, which nevertheless remained moderate. 
In the Council's assessment, the outlook for economic conditions in Poland remains 
favourable, yet GDP growth will prob ably be weaker than in previous years . There 
 
 
remains uncertainty about the scale and persistence of the slowdown abroad and its 
impact on domestic economic activity. 
Current forecasts show that inflation may exceed the up per limit of band for 
deviations from the target in the coming months. The temporary rise in price growth will 
be driven by supply -side and regulatory factors , i.e. ones remaining beyond t he direct 
impact of domestic monetary policy . As the impact of these factors fades and GDP 
growth weakens, inflation will gradua lly decrease. In the monetary policy tran smission 
horizon inflation will be close to the target. 
The Council judges that the current leve l of interest rates is conducive to keeping the 
Polish economy on a sustainable gr owth path and maintaining macroeconomic stability, 
while at the same time enabling to meet the inflation target in the medium term.