SARB MPC Statement - May 2021
Central bank: sarb | Type: statement | Date: 2021-05-20

20 May 2021
STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE
The steady rate of vaccination in many countries has lifted projections for global
economic growth and boosted confidence , significantly. Vaccination rates have not
been uniform, however, with many emerging and developing countries lagging behind.
This uneven vaccination rollout will weigh heavily on some countries more than others
and on economic activity in sectors that are more dependent on close contact, such
as travel, tourism, hospitality and leisure.
Until vaccination is widespread and populations develop sufficient immunity to curb
virus transmission, it is expected that waves of infection will continue. As indicated by
South Africa’s public health authorities , a third wave of virus infection is probable in
the near future.
The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) April forecast for global gross domestic
product (GDP) for 2021 was revised up to 6.0%. The SARB’s forecast for global
MPC Statement 20 May 2021 Page 2
growth in 2021 now also sits at 6.0%.1 For 2022, we expect global growth of about
3.8%.
Although policy settings in advanced economies remain accommodative, higher global
inflation and greater uncertainty about world interest rates has contributed to more
recent financial market and capital flow volatility. This reflects persistent risk aversion,
especially for emerging market economies that fail to take advantage of improved
global prospects or run large macroeconomic imbalances.
Following an expansion of 6.3% in the fourth quarter of 2020, the Bank’s forecast for
South Africa’s first quarter growth stands at 2.7%, much stronger than the 0.2%
contraction expected at the time of the March meeting. T he economy is expected to
grow by 4.2% in 2021 (up from 3.8%).
The stronger growth forecast for 2021 reflects better sectoral growth performances
and a more robust terms of trade in the first quarter of this year. Despite rising oil
prices and a higher total import bill , commodity prices have risen to new highs,
strengthening income gains to the economy. Household spending is expected to be
healthy this year, in line with the easing of lockdown restrictions and low interest rates.
Getting back to pre-pandemic output levels, however, will take time. Supply responses
remain muted in some sectors harder hit by the pandemic. Investment, while
stabilising, remains constrained. GDP is expected to grow by 2.3% in 2022 and by
2.4% in 2023, little changed since the March meeting.
1 Global growth in the QPM model is a trade-weighted average of South Africa’s trading partners. The IMF’s
global forecast for 2022 sits at 4.4%.
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Overall, and after upward revisions, the risks to the domestic growth outlook are
assessed to be balanced. Moderate growth in household spending is expected over
the forecast horizon and global conditions are generally supportive of growth. Slow
progress on vaccinations , limited energy supply and policy uncertainty continue to
pose downside risks to growth.
The large current account surplus at present reflects good growth and higher prices
for exports, still moderate prices for imported oil, and slowly reviving demand for
imported consumer and investment goods. This surplus is expected to give way to a
modest current account deficit by next year (2022), as exports slow and imports
accelerate.2 Although financing conditions have modestly improved and fiscal risk has
eased, the yield curve for rand-denominated bonds remains steep.
The generally favourable global conditions and strong commodity export prices have
led to the appreciation of the rand through the latter half of 2020 and into this year,
moving the currency close to its long-run equilibrium level. Since the March meeting,
the rand has appreciated by 4% on a trade-weighted basis. The implied starting point
for the rand forecast is R14.46 to the US dollar, compared with R14.96 at the time of
the previous meeting.
Headline consumer price inflation averaged 3.3% in 2020. The forecast for 2021 is
slightly lower at 4.2% (down from 4.3%) and for 2022 and 2023 unchanged at 4.4%
and 4.5%, respectively.
In 2020, c ore inflation also averaged 3.3%. The forecast for 2021 is lower at 3.0%
(down from 3.3%) and unchanged for 2022 and 2023 at 4.0% and 4.3%, respectively.
2 The current account is expected to be in surplus of 2.0% of GDP in 2021, shifting to a deficit of -0.6% in 2022.
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At a global level, a wide range of prices is accelerating, from raw materials to
intermediate inputs to food, reflecting both global supply shortages and rising demand.
Oil prices were revised up sharply in the previous forecast, and remain unchanged,
resulting in petrol price inflation of 12.5% for 2021 (down slightly from 12.7%).3
Electricity prices are significantly higher at 10.6% for 2021 (up from 9.7%).
Going forward, a stronger exchange rate, ongoing moderation in unit labour costs, and
sustained economic slack are expected to offset higher electricity and food price
inflation, keeping the headline inflation forecast relatively stable.
Expectations of future inflation have broadly stabilised at around 4.0% for 2021 and
4.2% for 2022. Market-based expectations for inflation are slightly lower for 2021 and
over longer horizons.4
The overall risks to the inflation outlook appear to be to the upside . Housing-led
services price inflation may continue to surprise to the downside. Food price inflation,
already very high globally, has also been more moderate than expected in the South
African market, due to a stronger exchange rate and robust crop production. Domestic
and global producer price inflation have been rising. Further risks could arise from
higher domestic import tariffs and escalating wage demands . Despite generally low
pass-through, a weaker rand would create additional upside risk to inflation, alongside
the ongoing risk from electricity and other administered pric es. Oil prices have
3 Our assumptions are now for oil prices to average about $62 per barrel in 2021 and $60 per barrel in 2022
and in 2023.
4 The (Q1) Bureau for Economic Research (BER) survey expectations for 2021 remain at 3.9%, 4.2% for 2022,
and 4.4% for 2023. Market analysts (Reuters Econometer) expect inflation to be higher at 4.2% (from 4.1%) in
2021, unchanged at 4.3 in 2022 and slightly lower at 4.4% in 2023 (down from 4.5%). Market-based rates
are calculated from the break-even inflation rate, which is the yield differential between conventional and
inflation-linked bonds. These now sit at 4.5% for the 5-year and 5.98% on the 10-year breakeven. 15-year
breakeven inflation sits at 6.43%.
MPC Statement 20 May 2021 Page 5
increased sharply this year and, while forecast to remain at current levels, are subject
to increasing upside risk as recent data has shown.
Compared to the March meeting, a higher growth forecast implies a small further
narrowing of the output gap over the forecast period.
The policy stance and repurchase rate le vel remains highly accommodative, and will
remain so even with steps taken to normalise interest rate levels in response to rising
inflation. With inflation expectations remaining stable, and despite inflation risk
increasing, the Committee still expects inflation to be contained in 2021, before rising
to around the midpoint of the inflation target range in 2022 and 2023.
Against this backdrop, the MPC decided to keep rates unchanged at 3.5% per annum.
The decision was unanimous.
The implied policy rate path of the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) indicates an
increase of 25 basis points in each of the second and fourth quarters of 2021.
Monetary policy continues to be accommodative, keeping financial conditions
supportive of credit demand as the economy recovers from the pandemic and
associated lockdowns. The Bank has ensured adequate liquidity in domestic markets
and will continue to closely monitor funding markets for stress. In addition, regulatory
relief provided to banks continues to support lending to households and firms.
Important macroeconomic gains would be realised by achieving a stable public debt
level, increasing the supply of energy, moderating administered price inflation and
keeping wage inflation low into the recovery. Such steps will enhance the
effectiveness of monetary policy and its transmission to the broader economy.
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Economic and financial conditions are expected to remain volatile for the foreseeable
future. In this uncertain environment, policy decisions will continue to be data
dependent and sensitive to the balance of risks to the outlook. The MPC will seek to
look through temporary price shocks and focus on second round effects . As usual,
the repo rate pr ojection from the QPM remains a broad policy guide , changing from
meeting to meeting in response to new data and risks.
Lesetja Kganyago
GOVERNOR
The next statement of the Monetary Policy Committee will be released on 22 July
2021.
Contact person:
Thoraya Pandy
media@resbank.co.za