CBR Quarterly Inflation Review - Q1 2009
Central bank: cbr | Type: quarterly_review | Date: 2009-03-31

THE CENTRAL BANK
OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
(BANK OF RUSSIA)
Quarterly
Inflation
Review
2009 Q1
Research and Information Department
The electronic version of Quarterly Inflation Review is available on the Bank of Russia's website :
 .ru/publ/.
Quarterly Inflation Review currently issued by the Bank of Russia’s Research and Information Department
is a document primarily aimed at analysing the latest consumer price trends. Inflation surveys published
in countries implementing inflation targeting (inflation forecasts) offer projected inflation estimates to
study potential inflation deviation from the target, analyse the reasons for such deviation and outline
the central bank’s measures to steer inflation towards the target. Since the end of 2006 the Bank
of Russia, assisted by the IMF , carries out work to develop an analysis and forecast system similar to
those used by central banks implementing inflation targeting. As the methods of analysis and forecast
improve, quarterly inflation reviews will be expanded and complemented with respective sections.
Contents
Introduction..................................................................................................................3
Inflation.Dynamics.........................................................................................................4
Consumer Prices .......................................................................................................................4
Housing prices ..........................................................................................................................6
Producer prices .........................................................................................................................6
Foreign trade ............................................................................................................................8
Demand .................................................................................................................................11
Supply ....................................................................................................................................13
Labour market .........................................................................................................................14
Monetary.Conditions...................................................................................................15
Exchange rate .........................................................................................................................15
Interest rates ...........................................................................................................................17
Asset prices ............................................................................................................................21
Monetary aggregates ...............................................................................................................23
Credit aggregates ....................................................................................................................26
Statistical.Addendum..................................................................................................28
2009 Q1 3
Introduction
The world financial and economic crisis and
its negative impact on the Russian economy have
been key factors influencing the inflation dynam-
ics. Recession and slower growth in Russia’s ma -
jor trading partners, decline in the world prices
of some food products and agricultural raw ma -
terials, lower inflation in the group of countries
exporting goods to Russia, tighter borrowing
conditions on global financial markets, as well as
weaker domestic investment and consumer de -
mand restricted consumer price growth. Rise in
consumer goods import prices due to devaluation
of the national currency , as well as accelerated
growth of producer prices in the mining sector ,
general downward trends in supply , and weaker
financial position of Russian enterprises gener -
ated inflationary pressure. Rapid growth in con -
sumer prices in the first quarter of 2009 slowed
down considerably in April.
The Bank of Russia’s main goal under these
circumstances was to maintain stability in the
banking sector and on the financial markets and
to create conditions favouring lower inflation.
Rapid increase in consumer prices and contin-
ued capital outflow from Russia in the first quarter
of the year did not allow the Bank of Russia to take
monetary policy measures aimed at easing mon -
etary conditions. The regulator focused its mon -
etary policy on stabilising exchange rate expec -
tations and keeping the value of the dollar / euro
bi-currency basket within the fluctuation band
set from January 23, 2009. In February , for the
purpose of restraining inflation and discouraging
capital outflow, the Bank of Russia raised inter -
est rates on its credit and deposit operations and
repo transactions, while keeping the upper limit
of its interest rate band – the refinancing rate –
unchanged at 13%. Along with these measures,
the Bank of Russia was implementing decisions
aimed at supporting the required liquidity level in
the banking sector and increasing the term of re -
financing for banks.
As the situation with liquidity normalised,
the ruble’s exchange rate stabilised against for -
eign currencies and short-term interbank rates
declined, the Bank of Russia gradually switched
to a more restrained policy of providing funds to
banks. A halt in devaluation and some nominal ap-
preciation of the ruble against foreign currencies,
as well as slower consumer price growth at the
end of the first quarter and in April-May allowed
the Bank of Russia to cut gradually interest rates
on its operations. By mid-May , the Bank of Rus-
sia interest rate band was shifted downwards by
1 percentage point. This measure caused a slight
decrease in banks’ rates on loans to the economy
at the end of the first quarter , although the volume
of this lending remained extremely low. Amid lim-
ited possibilities of raising money on foreign mar-
kets, contracted banks’ deposit base and higher
risk of borrowers defaulting on previous loans,
the rate of growth in debt loans to non-financial
institutions and households decreased almost by
half as compared with the end of the first quarter
of the previous year . Slower growth in loans to the
non-financial sector and in money supply during
a long period, as well as weaker devaluation im -
pact on prices reflect weakening monetary pres -
sure on inflation.
4 2009 Q1
Inflation Dynamics
Consumer Prices
According to the Federal State Statistics Ser -
vice (Rosstat), consumer prices rose 5.4% in
January-March 2009, which was 0.6 percent-
age points above their rise in the same period of
2008. Year on year , consumer prices increased
14.0% in March 2009 and 13.7% in January-
March 2009.
Inflation accelerated in January-March 2009
largely due to core inflation , which equalled
4.3% in the first quarter of 2009 as against 3.2%
in the same period a year earlier . Growth in the
prices of goods and services included in the calcu-
lation of the core consumer price index accounted
for an estimated 3.5 percentage points, or 64.0%,
of overall consumer price growth in the first quar-
ter of 2009 as against 2.5 percentage points, or
52.7%, in January-March 2008.
The acceleration of core inflation in the first
quarter of 2009 was largely due to the increased
growth in the prices of most basic non-food prod-
ucts and in the non-regulated prices and rates for
most paid services.
Food prices, excluding vegetable and fruit
prices, grew 4.0% in January-March 2009 (the
same increase was registered in the first quarter of
2008). This growth accounted for an estimated
1.4 percentage points, or 25.3%, of overall con-
sumer price growth in the first quarter of 2009 as
against an estimated 1.4 percentage points, or
29.8%, in the first quarter of 2008.
Consumer price inflation (%)
Growth (March 2009
on December 2008)
Growth (March 2008
on December 2007)
Prices of goods and services, total: 5.4 4.8 Acceleration of growth by 0.6 percentage points
of which:
– food prices 5.0 5.7 Slowing of growth by 0.7 percentage points
– food prices, excluding vegetable and fruit prices 4.0 4.0
– non-food prices 3.8 2.0 Acceleration of growth by 1.8 percentage points
– prices of paid services provided to households 8.5 7.5 Acceleration of growth by 1.0 percentage points
Prices of goods and services included in core inflation calculation 4.3 3.2 Acceleration of growth by 1.1 percentage points
Source: Rosstat.
Inflation Dynamics
2009 Q1 5
As to basic food prices, the most significant
increase was registered in granulated sugar prices,
which grew 28.7% in the first quarter of 2009 (as
against 7.8% in the same period of 2008), and in
fish and seafood prices (8.0% as against 2.4%).
Growth in the prices of most basic food products
(processed grain products, cereals and legumes,
milk and dairy products, butter) was slower in
January-March 2009 than in the same period of
2008. Sunflower oil prices declined 7.1%, and
egg prices were down 8.5% in the first quarter of
2009, whereas in January-March 2008 they in -
creased 6.6% and 2.1% respectively.
As in early 2008, world sugar prices tended
to increase in the first quarter of 2009. In January-
March, raw sugar and refined sugar prices picked
up 25.4% and 23.9% respectively (as against
29.9% and 17.7% in the same period of 2008).
The world grain market showed mixed price
dynamics in early 2009, after a fall in grain prices
that prevailed in the second half of 2008. There
was a rise in the prices of US wheat (4.9%) and
maize (4.0%), and a decline in the prices of Cana-
dian wheat (5.6%) and barley (0.3%) in January-
March 2009, while in the same period of 2008,
the prices of these grain crops grew by 19%,
32%, 30% and 15%, respectively. The price of
Thai rice rose 11% in the first quarter of 2009 as
against 65% in the same period of 2008.
The world meat markets, like other food mar-
kets, did not register any clearly expressed trends.
Beef prices were actually unchanged, pork prices
increased 6.1% and poultry prices declined 1.5%
in January-March 2009 (over the same period
of 2008, beef prices rose 11.6%, poultry prices
grew 5.6%, while pork prices slipped 0.2%).
Vegetable and fruit prices increased 14.7%
in the first quarter of 2009, or 5.9 percentage
points less than in the same period of the previ -
ous year . Vegetable and fruit prices contributed
an estimated 0.5 percentage points, or 9.7%, to
the overall consumer price growth in 2009 Q1, as
against 0.8 percentage points, or 16.6%, in the
first quarter of 2008.
Overall, food prices increased 5.0% in Jan -
uary-March 2009 as against 5.7% in the same
period of last year .
Growth in non-food prices accelerated to
3.8% in the first quarter of 2009 as against 2.0%
in the same period of 2008. The increase in non-
food prices accounted for an estimated 1.4 per-
centage points, or 26.1%, of overall consumer
price growth in January-March 2009 as com -
pared with 0.7 percentage points, or 14.7%, in
the first quarter of 2008. The biggest growth was
registered in the prices of medicines (14.2% as
compared with 2.8% in January-March 2008),
tobacco products (6.3% as against 3.9% in the
same period of 2008), and detergents and clean-
ing products (5.5% as compared with 2.7% a
year earlier). At the same time, motor petrol pric-
es dropped 8.1% in January-March 2009 and
Food price inflation (%)
Growth (March 2009
on December 2008)
Growth (March 2008
on December 2007)
Food products 5.0 5.7 Slowing of growth by 0.7 percentage points
Bread and bakery products 1.3 8.3 Slowing of growth by 7.0 percentage points
Cereals and legumes 3.9 5.0 Slowing of growth by 1.1 percentage points
Pasta 3.7 10.1 Slowing of growth by 6.4 percentage points
Meat and poultry 3.6 2.6 Acceleration of growth by 1.0 percentage points
Fish and seafood 8.0 2.4 Acceleration of growth by 5.6 percentage points
Milk and dairy products 1.2 5.5 Slowing of growth by 4.3 percentage points
Butter 1.4 4.6 Slowing of growth by 3.2 percentage points
Sunflower oil -7.1 6.6
Granulated sugar 28.7 7.8 Acceleration of growth by 20.9 percentage points
Vegetables and fruit 14.7 20.6 Slowing of growth by 5.9 percentage points
Alcoholic beverages 3.9 3.0 Acceleration of growth by 0.9 percentage points
Source: Rosstat.
6 2009 Q1
22.8% from September 2008 to March 2009
(motor petrol prices increased 3.2% in the first
quarter of 2008).
The prices of paid services provided to
households grew 8.5% in January-March 2009
(as against 7.5% in January-March 2008) con -
tributing an estimated 2.1 percentage points, or
38.9%, to overcall consumer price growth (as
against 1.9 percentage points, or 38.9%, in the
first quarter of 2008).
Regulated prices of paid services increased
by an estimated 11.9% in January-March 2009,
or 2.4% faster than in the same period last year .
Rent and communal service charges rose 17.0%
in the first quarter of 2009 as against 13.5% in
January-March 2008. Passenger transport fees
grew 4.3% in the first quarter of 2009 as against
8.1% in January-March 2008.
Growth in some service prices used in the
calculation of core inflation – in particular , service
fees of cultural institutions and travel agencies, in-
surance, and pre-school tuition prices – acceler-
ated in the first quarter of 2009.
The rise in the prices of paid services provid -
ed to the public in January-March 2009 exceeded
overall growth in the prices of goods by 4.1 per-
centage points (as against 3.6 percentage points
in January-March 2008).
According to Rosstat data, consumer prices
grew faster in all federal districts in January-
March 2009 as compared with in the same period
last year .
The difference in estimated cost of a fixed set
of goods and services, which is used by the Feder-
al State Statistics Service for interregional compar-
isons of the purchasing power of the population,
became more pronounced across Russian regions
and territories in March 2009. The regional dif -
ference ratio1 increased to 42.4% in March 2009
from 40.0% in December 2008.
In the first quarter of 2009, growth in food
prices, excluding vegetable and fruit prices, dif -
fered slightly – from 3.5% to 4.7% – by federal
district, and the rates of non-food price growth
changed virtually within the same range.
As for the vegetable and fruit prices (includ -
ing potatoes prices), their rates of growth differed
significantly by federal region in 2009 Q1, as in
the first quarter of 2008. In the Urals Federal Dis-
trict, for example, vegetable and fruit prices grew
7.0% in January-March 2009 (19.3% in Janu -
ary-March 2008), whereas in the North-Western
Federal District they increased 17.2% (21.8% in
the same period last year).
Growth in service prices accelerated in all
federal districts in the first half of 2009 as com -
pared with the same period last year .
Housing prices
Housing prices declined 2.2% on the pri -
mary market and 2.8% on the secondary market
in January-March 2009. In the same period of
2008, housing prices grew 2.3% on the primary
market and 6.7% on the secondary market.
The housing price dynamics in 2009 Q1
were affected by the downturn in housing de -
mand caused by the financial and economic crisis.
This was reflected, in particular , in slower growth
in housing construction which was 2.4% in Jan -
uary-March 2009, down from 8.1% in the same
period of 2008.
Producer prices
Industrial producer prices rose 4.4% in
January-March 2009 as against 3.0% in January-
March 2008. The acceleration of producer price
growth was primarily due to rapid price growth
in the mining sector . Producer prices in the min-
1 The regional difference ratio is calculated by the Bank of
Russia as the difference between the cost of a fixed set of
goods and services in the most and least expensive regions
relative to the national average cost of the set.
Inflation Dynamics
2009 Q1 7
ing sector increased 8.5% in January-March
2009 whereas in the same period of 2008 they
declined 6.2%. Producer prices in the fuel and
energy sector grew 11.7% in the first quarter of
2009 as compared with their 7.4% decline in the
first quarter of 2008.
Price growth in the production and distribu -
tion of electricity , gas and water decelerated by
0.7 percentage points to 18.1% in 2009 Q1 as
compared with the same period of 2008.
Producer prices in the manufacturing sector
grew 1.3% in the first quarter of 2009 as against
4.0% in the same period last year . The most sig-
nificant price growth (10.1%) was registered in
the output of petroleum products (as against a
2.8% decline in their prices in the first quarter of
2008). At the same time, there was a slowdown in
producer price growth in consumer goods manu-
facturing. For example, there was a slowdown in
producer price growth by 2.1 percentage points
(to 3.4%) in food, including beverages, and to -
bacco production, by 0.5 percentage points (to
4.1%) in textile and clothing manufacturing and
by 1.1 percentage points (to 0.1%) in the pro -
duction of leather , leather goods and footwear in
2009 Q1, as compared with the same period of
2008.
Freight charges increased 10.6% in Janu -
ary-March 2009 as against 10.9% in the same
8 2009 Q1
Inflation in some countries of the world1
Inflation in the countries that account for a significant share of Russian imports slowed to 1.4% in the first
quarter of 2009 (March on December of the previous year) from 2.4% in the same period of 2008. Consumer
prices declined in some European countries (Germany , Italy , Spain and Belgium), as well as in Japan. In most
other countries among Russia’s trading partners, consumer price growth slowed down. The most significant
decrease in the inflation rate was registered in Ukraine, China and Turkey. Slower inflation in Ukraine and China
and price falls in Germany and Italy made the biggest
contribution to the slowing of aggregate consumer
price growth among Russia’s major trading partners.
In Belarus, inflation increased as both food and non-
food prices went up following devaluation of the na-
tional currency.
The contraction of demand due to the recession
and lower prices of energy products and other pri -
mary commodities on world markets led to the slow-
ing of inflation in Russia’s trading partners. However,
there were no signs that the economic slump in for -
eign countries could take the form of a long-term de-
flation. US consumer prices were observed to decline
steadily in August-December 2008; however, they
increased monthly by 0.2-0.5% in January-March
2009. Falling consumer prices in the eurozone was
a prevailing trend in the second half of 2008. This
trend continued in January 2009 but was largely at-
tributable to seasonal price fluctuations. In February
and March 2009, eurozone consumer prices grew
0.4% a month.
1 According to data compiled by the national statistical agencies of Russia’s trading partners.
period of 2008. Railway transport fares were up
4.8% as against 11.5% in the previous year .
Communication fees for corporate en -
tities gained 2.6% in January-March 2009 as
against 10.0% in the first quarter of 2008.
The composite price index for building ma-
terials equalled 98.7% in the first quarter of
2009, while there was an increase by 3.9% in
producer prices of building materials in the same
period of 2008.
Agricultural producer prices grew 0.9% in
January-March 2009 as against 6.0% in the same
period last year . Crop grower prices rose 1.9% as
against 9.9% in the previous year , although there
was a decline in producer prices of grain (by 0.3%)
and sunflower (by 5.4%) in January-March 2009
(they increased 7.0% and 8.5%, respectively ,
in the same period of 2008). Livestock breeder
prices went up 0.3% (3.2% in January-March
2008). The most rapid growth was registered in
cattle and poultry prices (4.2% as against 1.1% a
year earlier). Milk producer prices fell 2.4% in the
first quarter of 2009, whereas they grew 6.4% in
January-March 2008.
Foreign trade
The price situation for major Russian export
commodities2 on world markets deteriorated con-
siderably in January-March 2009 as compared
with the same period of 2008. World market en-
ergy prices were on average 43% lower than in
the same period last year , while non-energy prices
dropped 12%.
World oil prices had fallen sharply since mid-
July 2008 amid the intensifying global financial
crisis, recession in the United States and some Eu-
ropean countries, investment outflow from com -
2 Average prices have been calculated on the basis of data
provided daily by the following news agencies and exchang-
es: Reuters for oil, Petroleum Argus for petroleum products
(petrol, diesel fuel and fuel oil) and the London Metal Ex -
change for non-ferrous metals (aluminium, copper and nick-
el). Ferrous metal price indices and data on average monthly
prices of natural gas and other goods were provided by the
World Bank and the IMF .
Inflation Dynamics
2009 Q1 9
modity markets and the expectations of lower
demand for energy products. The average price
of Urals crude plunged to $ 38.1 per barrel in De-
cember from $ 129.3 per barrel in July. Oil prices
were observed to grow in the first quarter of 2009
to hit the quarter’s high of $ 50.2 per barrel on
March 26 (with the average oil price of $ 45.4 per
barrel in March).
The trend towards a slow increase in oil pric-
es was attributable to investors’ revaluation of the
scope and implications of the global financial and
economic crisis, and also to economic growth
persisting in some countries among major im -
porters of energy products, in particular , in the
Asian region, especially in China. Apart from that,
the OPEC countries, which had cut oil production
quotas back in 2008, consistently implemented
their decision. As a result, the price of Urals crude
equalled $ 43.2 per barrel in the first quarter of
2009 and was 54% lower than in the same pe -
riod last year (the price of Urals crude increased
74%, year on year , in the first quarter of 2008).
Price dynamics on the petroleum product
market largely followed dynamics on the oil mar-
ket. Petroleum product prices were on average
50% lower in the first quarter of 2009 as com -
pared with the same period last year: premium
and straight-run petrol prices went down 51%
and 54%, respectively , diesel fuel prices declined
52% and fuel oil prices slipped 47% (the prices
of these petroleum products went up 53%, 52%,
70% and 76%, respectively , in the first quarter of
2008).
The price of natural gas in Europe had in -
creased in 2008 till November when it started to
fall (by 1-2% a month), with the price decline ac-
celerating in the first quarter of 2009. However ,
the price of natural gas in Europe was 10% higher
in the first quarter of 2009 as compared with the
same period in the previous year (28% higher in
January-March 2008). Coal prices has declined
since August 2008. As a result, coal prices were
47% lower in the first quarter of 2009 than in the
same period last year (they were 110% higher in
the first quarter of 2008).
A key factor behind the decline in world fer -
rous metals prices since September 2008 has been
slower growth in demand in the countries that are
the major consumers of these metals, primarily in
China. However , ferrous metals prices were almost
20% higher in the first quarter of 2009 year on
year (30% higher in the first quarter of 2008).
Non-ferrous metal prices tended downwards
on world markets in the second half of 2007. The
world financial and economic crisis, which led to
the contraction of global industrial and investment
demand for non-ferrous metals, accelerated the
fall in non-ferrous metal prices in the second half
of 2008 and in the first quarter of 2009. Quar -
ter on quarter , the prices of aluminium fell 50%,
copper 56% and nickel 64% in January-March
2009 as compared with the same period last year
(in January-March 2008, the prices of aluminium
and nickel declined 2% and 30% respectively ,
while the prices of copper rose 31%).
The prices of other Russian raw material ex -
ports were also affected by the situation in the
global economy as a whole and on world com -
modity markets.
The world prices of most foodstuffs and agri-
cultural raw materials3 started to decline in 2008.
The fall in prices (except the prices of sugar ,
American wheat and Thai rice) continued in the
first quarter of 2009.
World sugar prices tended to grow through-
out 2008 (sugar prices grew 14-15% on average
over the year). The trend of sugar price growth
continued in early 2009 due to the persistence
3 Average sugar prices have been calculated on the ba-
sis of data provided daily by the London Commodity
Exchange, other prices are monthly averages published
by the World Bank and the IMF .
10 2009 Q1
of high seasonal demand for sugar , particularly in
Russia, and the contraction of global sugar stocks.
The world sugar market faces potential risks of
sugar price increases due to a global sugar short-
age in the amount of 4.5 million tonnes expected
in the 2009 / 2010 agricultural year 4 following
the contraction of world sugar stocks caused by
reduced sugar production, primarily in India and
China, and also due to the continued growth in
world demand for sugar amid increasing popula-
tion.
Growth in the prices of some grain crops
was caused by unfavourable weather conditions
in some regions and the decrease in grain stocks.
However , the risks of inflation growth due to grain
price increases are low so far . Analysts do not ex-
pect a considerable increase in grain prices as the
world stocks of wheat and maize have reached the
highest level for the past 6-7 years while growth in
the industrial use of grain has slowed down amid
the global economic meltdown.
In late 2008, the slowdown in demand
growth caused by the deterioration of the eco -
nomic situation in the world’s largest meat con -
suming countries, the fall in fodder prices, and
the decline in energy and fuel prices led to slower
growth, or even decrease, in poultry and livestock
product prices. However , the situation on these
markets, as well as on many other food and agri-
cultural raw materials markets, largely depended
4 From July 1, 2009 to June 30, 2010.
on the impact of global factors in the first quarter
of 2009. Growth in pork and poultry prices was
stimulated by the expectations of beef being sub-
stituted with cheaper meat (pork and poultry), as
well as by forecasts of a decrease in pork produc-
tion in some countries. In particular , US pork out-
put has been expected to decline (for the first time
in the past nine years) due to increased costs in
the previous two years.
The terms of Russia’s trade5 with other coun-
tries deteriorated considerably in the first quarter
5 The ration between export and import price indices.
Inflation Dynamics
2009 Q1 11
of 2009 due to a fall in the world prices of Russian
export commodities.
Russia’s trade surplus 6 contracted by
2.3 times to $ 21.7 billion in the first quarter of
2009 as compared with the same period last year
due to a slump in exports, which fell by $ 50 billion
or 45.4% while imports declined by $ 21.8 billion
or 36.3%.
Demand
Domestic demand
The negative trends, created under the im -
pact of the global financial and economic crisis
in late 2008, continued into the first quarter of
2009. The slowing of growth in revenues in vari -
ous sectors of the economy and the toughening
of the borrowing terms and conditions led to
the contraction of domestic demand in January-
March 2009. It has been estimated that domestic
demand for imports fell in that period due to the
devaluation of the ruble.
In 2008, the share of imported products in
retail trade commodity resources contracted by
2.0 percentage points, as compared with 2007,
and stood at 45%. The share of revenues from
food imports declined by 0.8 percentage points
to 34.6% and non-food imports by 2.9 percent-
age points to 53.6%.
In the first quarter of 2009, the imports of
investment goods declined more than the imports
of consumer goods. Import volumes fell consider-
ably. The imports of engineering goods declined
almost 2 times, chemical and related products,
6 According to a balance of payments estimate as of April 3,
2009.
by about one-third, and foodstuffs and food raw
materials, by almost 20%, in terms of their value
in the first quarter of 2009 as compared with the
same period of 2008.
As some import prices, especially food import
prices and the prices of imports of raw materials
for food production, remain higher than in the
first quarter of 2008, the risks of price increases
on the domestic market persist.
The structure of household money income
was virtually unchanged in January-March 2009
as compared with the same period last year . The
share of earnings in total income equalled to
68.3%, while that of social transfers was 13.5%.
Household real disposable money income
dropped 2.3% in the first quarter of 2009 as
compared with the same period last year . As
the devaluation expectations increased in Janu -
ary 2009, households preferred to maintain the
current consumption level and to buy foreign
exchange. In February and March 2009, house -
hold spending on the purchase of foreign cur -
rency began to decline. The share of household
spending on the purchase of goods and services
expanded by 0.3 percentage points to 76.8%
in January-March 2009, as compared with the
same period last year , and the share of spending
on the purchase of foreign exchange increased by
3.7 percentage points to 10.6%. The public pro -
pensity for organised savings stood at 7.5% in the
first quarter of 2009 (7.7% in the first quarter of
2008).
Household spending on final consumption
grew 11.3% in 2008 as against 13.7% in 2007.
Consumer demand started to shrink at the begin-
ning of 2009. Retail trade turnover fell 1.1% in
Foreign trade
In the first quarter of 2009, the terms of trade continued to worsen for oil exporting countries. In the es -
timate of the International Energy Agency , global oil consumption decreased 3.7% in January-March 2009 as
compared with the same period last year . The average Brent, Dubai and WTI crude prices fell 53.7% in the first
quarter of 2009 as compared with 2008 Q1.
According to Eurostat data, expenditures on the import of oil and petroleum products, including imports
from Russia, in the European Union member countries fell considerably in early 2009 as compared with the
same period last year . The decrease was due both to prices and weaker demand (estimates of the International
Energy Agency showed that oil consumption in European OECD member countries fell 3.1% in the first quarter
of 2009 as compared with the same period of 2008). Market conditions remained favourable for natural gas
exporters in early 2009. However, global price indices, which determine the terms of international contracts on
natural gas supplies, are declining. Global steel prices declined in the first quarter of 2009 partly due to the rising
supply of Chinese steel products (in China, metallurgical production capacities exceed domestic demand).
12 2009 Q1
January-March 2009, as compared with the same
period last year , and the volume of paid services to
the public declined 1.5%.
Government expenditures on final consump-
tion increased 2.5% in 2008 as against 3.4% in
2007. The Federal Treasury reported data show
that federal budget expenditures grew to 21.5%
of GDP in the first quarter of 2009 as against
15.0% in January-March 2008. Non-interest
expenditures stood at 20.7% of GDP (14.4% in
January-March 2008), the largest spending for
the past decade largely caused by the implemen -
tation of anti-crisis measures to support the finan-
cial system. At the same time, federal budget non-
interest expenditures in January-March 2009 ac-
counted for 18.7% of the budget projection for
the year , or slightly higher than in the same period
a year earlier (18.0%).
The value of funds on the government’s de -
posit accounts with the Bank of Russia continued
to grow in the first quarter of 2009 as a result
of revaluation of foreign currency-denominated
accounts of the Reserve Fund and the National
Wealth Fund (in the first quarter of 2008, the
value of these funds increased due to accelerated
growth in budget revenues). In January-March
2009, the federal budget posted a deficit of 0.4%
of GDP whereas in the same period of 2008 the
federal budget showed a surplus (6.7% of GDP).
The reduction of the federal budget surplus in
late 2008 and the budget deficit created in early
2009 as a result of measures implemented by the
Government of Russia to maintain financial and
economic stability testify to an easing of the fiscal
policy.
Gross capital formation increased 11.1% in
2008 as against 21.0% in 2007. Fixed capital in-
vestment was observed to contract in early 2009
shranking 15% in the first quarter of 2009 (in
the first quarter of 2008, fixed capital investment
grew 23.6%).
Investments in machinery , equipment and
transport vehicles made up over one-third of to -
tal investments. About one-fifth went to purchase
import equipment. Imports of machinery , equip-
ment and transport vehicles decreased 49.3% in
January-March 2009 (they increased 61.2% in
January-March 2008).
Most of fixed capital investments (60.0%)
were financed with borrowed funds in 2008. Bank
loans accounted for 11.1% as against 10.4% in
2007.
As import volumes grew considerably faster
than exports, net exports of goods and services
contracted 36% in 2008.
Foreign demand
The contraction of foreign demand and the
price downturn on world commodity markets
amid the global financial and economic crisis af -
GDP consumption
(growth as % of corresponding period of previous year)
2007 2008
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Full year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Full year
GDP 7.5 8.0 7.7 9.0 8.1 8.7 7.5 6 1.2 5.6
Final consumption 10.4 10.8 11.1 11.2 10.9 9.3 10.3 9.7 6.6 8.9
Of which:
– households 13.0 13.6 14.3 13.8 13.7 12.2 13.4 12.2 8.0 11.3
Gross capital formation 29.7 25.0 20.3 14.5 21.0 17.2 21.0 13.4 -2.1 11.1
Net exports -25.5 -28.2 -42.9 -13.7 -27.1 -9.5 -43.4 59.4 39.9 36.0
Source: Rosstat.
Inflation Dynamics
2009 Q1 13
fected Russian export dynamics in the first quar -
ter of 2009. The most significant contraction was
registered in Russian exports to European Union
member countries as they declined by over two
times (exports shrank by two-thirds to Germany
and Poland and by a half to Italy). Exports to ma-
jor Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)
member countries (China, the US and Japan) fell
by about one-third. The biggest reduction in ex -
ports to the CIS countries was registered in Rus -
sian exports to Ukraine (by three times).
The contraction in exports was attributable
not only to price falls but also to the reduction in
export volumes. The exports of Russian natural
gas decreased by 2.4 times, timber and wood -
working products by one-third, chemicals, miner-
al fertilizer and ferrous metals by more than one-
fourth and oil by 1.2% in the first quarter of 2009
as compared with the same period last year .
Supply
The global financial and economic crisis ad -
versely affected the development of Russian in -
dustry at the beginning of 2009. Output in the
key types of economic activity contracted 12.3%
in the first quarter of 2009 (it grew 9.1% in the
first quarter of 2008).
The output of products (works, services)
declined 19.3% in the construction sector , and
17.6% in transport, while retail and wholesale
trade turnover decreased 1.1% and 4.3%, re -
spectively , in the first quarter of 2009 as com -
pared with the same period last year .
Industrial output shrank 14.3% in January-
March 2009 (it grew 6.2% in the first quarter of
2008). Output contracted 20.8% in manufactur-
ing industries and 3.8% in the mining sector (in
the first quarter of 2008, output in these sectors
expanded 8.7% and 0.7%, respectively).
The supply of farm produce increased 2.1%
in the first quarter of 2009 as against 5.5% in the
same period last year . In January-March 2009,
growth was registered in the output of major
livestock products, such as cattle and poultry in
slaughter weight, which increased 5.8%. As a
result, the output of meat and meat products in -
creased 1.8% in January-March 2009 as com -
pared with the same period last year , of which
meat, including premium quality meat by-prod -
ucts, grew 11.4%.
Grain stocks available as of early April, includ-
ing wheat, rye and millet, considerably exceeded
last year’s levels. Grain stock growth is expected
to have a positive effect on the dynamics of the
prices of bread and bakery products, cereals, le -
Economic growth in foreign countries1
GDP in the countries that account for a large part of Russian exports contracted by an estimated 4.6% in
the first quarter of 2009 as compared with the same period last year (GDP grew 4.5% in the first quarter of
2008). According to estimates and preliminary data, GDP shrank 2.6% in the United States and 4.6% in the
eurozone in the first quarter of 2009 while China’s GDP expanded 6.1% (10.6% in the first quarter of 2008).
Negative processes in the economy and financial systems of developed countries affect the situation in
other countries and the world economy as a whole through the contraction of international trade, price falls
on world markets and declines in capital flows. As the possibilities for foreign economies to influence economic
activity through changes in interest rates are decreasing, many countries are implementing tax and budget policy
measures to stimulate the economy.
1According to data compiled by the national statistical agencies of Russia’s trading partners.
14 2009 Q1
gumes, and pasta, as well as on the consumer
price inflation in general.
There has been an increase in spare produc -
tion capacity in the past few months. According to
the estimates of the Russian Economic Barometer ,
the rate of production capacity utilisation in indus-
try stood at 61% in January 2009 as against 78%
in January 2008. The highest capacity utilisation
rate was registered in food production (72%) and
the timber industry (67%), while the lowest rate
was observed in metallurgy (47%), machine-
building (54%) and chemicals output (55%).
Despite a considerable shrink in domestic
demand in late 2008, its growth rate remained
high throughout the year (over 10%) stimulating
production to surpass its natural (potential) level.
GDP contracted 9.5% in the first quarter of 2009.
The gap between actual and potential output was
estimated as negative.
Labour market
The number of people employed in the econ-
omy decreased 2.9% in January-March 2009 (it
increased 0.8% in January-March 2008). Labour
productivity declined by an estimated 6.8% in the
first quarter of 2009 (it grew 5.6% in 2008). An
estimate shows that labour productivity in the ser-
vices sector was higher than in the goods sector .
The production of services grew faster than the
production of goods. The number of employed
in the services sector increased as compared with
2007 but decreased in the goods sector .
Real wage fell 2.3% in the first quarter of
2009 (it grew 13.4% in the first quarter of 2008).
Real wage declined at a slower rate than labour
productivity.
In the GDP structure by income, the share of
wage contracted to 45.6% in 2008 from 46.2%
in 2007.
Wages continued to differ significantly in var-
ious types of activity in the first quarter of 2009.
The highest average monthly wage in January-
February 2009 was registered in the financial sec-
tor (40,619 rubles) and fuel and energy produc-
tion (38,503 rubles), exceeding the national av -
erage by 2.4 times and 2.3 times respectively. The
lowest wage was registered in agriculture, hunting
and forestry (7,984 rubles), textile and clothing
production (7,865 rubles) and in the production
of leather , leather goods and footwear (8,731 ru-
bles). This represents respectively 46.7%, 46.0%
and 51.1% of the national average. Wages below
the national average were registered in the sectors
that receive considerable government funding
(education, utilities, public and personal services,
healthcare and social services), as well as in man-
ufacturing industries, construction, wholesale and
retail trade, car and other repair services.
The growth in the number of unemployed
as calculated by the ILO methodology , which had
started in the second half of 2008, accelerated
in early 2009. The number of jobless increased
39.2% in January-March 2009 as compared with
the same period last year . The number of officially
registered unemployed also increased significant-
ly (by 26.6%). The total number of unemployed
stood at 10% of the economically active popula -
tion as of late March 2009 (6.5% as of late March
2008 and 7.8% as of late December 2008).
2009 Q1 15
Monetary Conditions
Exchange rate
The ruble exchange rate dynamics in the first
quarter of 2009 continued to be affected by the
global financial crisis, although showing some
signs of stabilisation. Estimates show that the cur-
rent account surplus stood at $ 11.1 billion in the
first quarter of 2009. This represents a slight in -
crease on the fourth quarter of 2008 ($ 8.6 bil-
lion). According to preliminary data, private sector
net capital outflow stood at $ 38.8 billion in Jan -
uary-March 2009 showing a considerable reduc-
tion from $ 130.6 billion in the previous quarter .
The Bank of Russia completed on January 23,
2009 the gradual adjustment of the bi-currency
basket fluctuation range. According to calcula -
tions, the ruble exchange rate came close to its
fundamental equilibrium level in late January. The
market participants’ needs for ruble liquidity and
higher oil prices put some upward pressure on
general demand for domestic currency in Febru -
ary-March. That urged the Bank of Russia to take
measures to smooth the fluctuations of the ruble
exchange rate in the period under review, acting
as a net buyer of foreign currency on the foreign
exchange market. As a result, the value of Russia’s
international reserve assets dropped by 10.1%
in the first quarter of 2009 to $ 383.9 billion as
of April 1, 2009 (as against 23.3% in the fourth
quarter of 2008).
The nominal ruble / US dollar rate fell
19.6% in 2009 Q1, quarter on quarter (11.1% in
2008 Q4). In January and February , the ruble de-
preciated 10.6% and 12.0% respectively , against
the US dollar but gained (for the first time in the
past eight months) 3.2% against the US curren -
cy in March. In April, the ruble increased 3.3%
against the US dollar . As a result, the ruble / US
dollar rate stood at 32.9740 rubles to the dollar
as of May 1, 2009.
The nominal ruble / euro rate fell 19.1% in
the reported quarter . The ruble depreciated 10.4%
in January and 7.3% in February against the euro
but rose 0.9% in March. In the fourth quarter of
2008, the ruble gained 1.4% against the euro,
despite a considerable devaluation of the national
currency at the end of the year (the ruble / euro
rate declined 8.4% in December 2008). In April,
the ruble rose 2.3% against the single European
currency and stood at 43.9939 rubles to the euro
as of May 1, 2009.
The nominal ruble value of the bi-cur -
rency basket showed considerable fluctuations in
the reported quarter . Amid continued devaluation
of the national currency against the US dollar and
16 2009 Q1
the euro, the ruble value of the bi-currency basket
reached an all-time record high of 40.9368 rubles
as of February 6, 2009, coming close to the up -
per limit set by the Bank of Russia on the range of
fluctuations in the bi-currency basket value. How-
ever , following the trend of the ruble appreciation
against foreign currencies, clearly observed since
the second half of February , the value of the bi-
currency basket dropped to 37.9330 rubles as of
May 1, 2009.
The real ruble / US dollar rate fell 15.4% in
the first quarter of 2009 as compared with 6.3%
in the fourth quarter of 2008. As in the previous
quarter , the ruble / US dollar nominal rate was a
key factor in the real ruble / dollar rate dynamics
in January-March 2009. According to preliminary
International currency market
In the first quarter of 2009, the US dollar appreciated against the currencies of all Russia’s major trading
partners, except China. The US dollar continued to strengthen against the euro although at a considerably slower
pace then in the previous quarter . As a result, the US dollar gained less than 3.5% against the euro in the first
quarter of 2009 (March on December 2008). Following a sharp increase in the exchange rate of the Japanese
yen to the US dollar, the euro and other currencies in
the fourth quarter of 2008, Japan experienced seri-
ous problems as its industry became less competitive.
The US dollar gained over 6.5% against the Japanese
yen in the first quarter of 2009.
The US dollar appreciated rapidly against the
currencies of some countries in Central and South-
Eastern Europe (Poland, Hungary , the Czech Republic
and Romania), as well as of Turkey in the first quarter
of 2009. Belarus devalued its national currency by
20.5% on January 2, 2009 and pegged the Belaru -
sian ruble to the currency basket composed of the US
dollar, the euro and the Russian ruble in equal pro -
portions. Kazakhstan devalued its national currency ,
the tenge, by 20% on February 4, 2009. Amid the
global economic meltdown and high exchange rate
volatility on international currency markets, China
suspended its policy of the yuan’s gradual appre -
ciation against the US dollar . The US dollar / yuan ex-
change rate did not change significantly in the first
quarter of 2009.
Monetary Conditions
2009 Q1 17
data, the ruble gained 3.8% against the US dollar
in real terms in April.
The real ruble / euro rate declined 15.0%
in January-March 2009 (it grew 4.2% in Octo -
ber-December 2008). The ruble fell 8.1% in Jan-
uary and 6.1% in February against the euro in real
terms but gained 1.9% in March and an estimated
2.7% in April. The nominal rate was a key factor
in the dynamics of the real ruble / euro rate in the
reported quarter , whereas in the fourth quarter of
2008 the change in the real exchange rate of the
ruble against the single European currency was
largely caused by the inflation differential.
The real effective rate of the ruble fell by
an estimated 11.8% in the first quarter of 2009
(it gained 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2008).
The weakening of the real effective rate of the ru-
ble against the currencies of Russia’s major trad -
ing partners was largely due to the reduction in
the nominal rate of the ruble in January-February.
Interest rates
Money market and Bank of Russia in­
terest rates
In January-May 2009, the Bank of Russia
changed interest rates on its key operations pro -
ceeding from the analysis of prevailing macroeco-
nomic trends, inflation trends and ruble exchange
rate expectations, and money supply dynamics.
As consumer prices continued to grow at
relatively high pace contributing to the increase
in inflationary expectations, and the ruble weak -
ened considerably in the first month of the year ,
the Bank of Russia raised interest rates on its op -
erations twice during February 2009. Interest
rates on some operations 1 were first raised on
February 2 this year . Since February 10, 2009, the
minimum overnight repo auction rate has been
increased from 9% to 10% p.a. Over the same
period, the «tom-next» deposit rate, which sets
the lower limit of the Bank of Russia interest rate
band, was raised from 6.75% to 7.75% p.a. The
overnight loan rate (the refinancing rate), which
sets the upper limit of the interest rate band, re -
mained unchanged (13% p.a.). Simultaneously ,
the Bank of Russia raised interest rates on its other
operations (see Statistical Addendum, T able 9).
Smooth devaluation of the ruble, which com-
pleted on January 23, 2009, and gradual stabili -
sation of the domestic foreign exchange market in
February-April 2009, as well as downward trends
in inflation and inflationary expectations, and the
1 The Bank of Russia raised fixed rates on repo operations,
Lombard loans and loans secured by «non-market» assets or
guarantees.
Foreign central bank policies
The policy pursued by foreign central banks in the first quarter of 2009 was aimed at preventing deflation
and reducing a systemic risk in the financial sector .
Interest rates were lowered in most of Russia’s trad-
ing partners, and the policy of interest rate cuts has
continued in the second quarter . The European Cen-
tral Bank lowered the refinancing rate from 2.5%
to 1.5% p.a. in the first quarter of 2009, to 1.25%
p.a. in April and to 1% p.a. in May. The US Federal
Reserve, which kept the benchmark federal funds
rate within the range of 0-0.25% p.a., started op -
erations with the banking sector to increase liquid -
ity through the purchase of securities from banks in
specified amounts. The National Bank of Kazakhstan
cut its refinancing rate from 10.5% to 9.5% p.a. in
the first quarter of 2009. The refinancing rate of the
National Bank of Belarus was raised in January from
12% to 14% p.a. Belarus started careful easing of its
monetary policy in April when it cut interest rates on
liquidity support and absorption instruments. In Chi-
na, benchmark interest rates on yuan-denominated
deposits and loans has not changed since the begin-
ning of the year .
18 2009 Q1
easing of money supply pressure on inflation in the
medium term allowed the Bank of Russia to make
decisions to cut interest rates on its operations in
April and May. From April 24, 2009, the Bank of
Russia interest rate band was biased downward
by 0.5 percentage points. The overnight credit
rate was lowered from 13% to 12.5% p.a., the
«tom-next» deposit rate from 7.75% to 7.25%
p.a. and the minimum overnight repo auction rate
from 10% to 9.5% p.a.
The Bank of Russia took a decision to further
cut interest rates taking into account positive signs
of stronger downward trends in inflation and in -
flationary expectations. Since May 14, 2009 the
Bank of Russia interest rate band has been biased
downward by another 0.5 percentage points. The
overnight loan rate was lowered to 12% p.a., the
«tom-next» deposit rate to 6.75% p.a. and the
minimum overnight repo auction rate to 9% p.a.
Interest rates on other Bank of Russia operations
also went down in April-May (see Statistical Ad -
dendum, T able 9).
As the situation on the foreign exchange
market stabilised and the Bank of Russia provided
considerable funds to credit institutions through
refinancing operations, banks’ aggregate non-
cash reserves (including credit institutions’ funds
on correspondent, deposit and required reserve
accounts with the Bank of Russia, and also funds
invested in Bank of Russia bonds) grew as of the
Monetary Conditions
2009 Q1 19
Bank of Russia operations to refinance credit institutions in January­April 2009
In January 2009, under persisting domestic foreign exchange market instability and increasing interbank
credit rates, the demand for Bank of Russia refinancing operations in banking sector remained rather strong. In
February-April 2009, the volume of the Bank of Russia operations to provide liquidity was observed to decline
gradually as the ruble devaluation expectations weakened and interbank credit rates went down.
In January-April, the Bank of Russia continued to implement additional measures aimed at extending the
terms of its liquidity instruments offered to credit institutions. Apart from expanding the list of participants in
unsecured loan auctions, the Bank of Russia expanded the list of collaterals and reduced the spread between
short-term and long-term loan rates in view to make the loans secured by «non-market» assets or guarantees
more attractive. At the same time, the Bank of Russia reduced the amount of liquidity supplied through shot-
term repo and currency swap operations.
In January-April 2009, the Bank of Russia continued to expand the Bank of Russia Lombard List and the
list of «non-market» assets accepted as collateral in its refinancing operations. In particular, the Bank of Russia
added to its Lombard List shares and bonds of issuers included in the List of Systemically Important Enterprises1
(regardless of whether these issuers have an international rating or not) and listed at least on one stock exchange
in Russia. In addition, the list of enterprises obliged for promissory notes and claims under credit agreements,
accepted as collateral for Bank of Russia loans, was also supplemented by those included in the above List of
Systemically Important Enterprises. In February 2009, the Bank of Russia started repo operations on the MICEX
Stock Exchange, facilitating the procedure of the inclusion of new types of bonds in the Bank of Russia Lombard
List and stimulating banks to conclude more actively deals with the use of corporate securities.
In the first quarter of 2009, credit institutions’ average daily debt to the Bank of Russia on instruments used
to provide liquidity totalled 2.8 trillion rubles and in April it dropped to 2.5 trillion rubles. The share of unsecured
loans in the structure of this debt decreased from about 65 % in the first quarter to 55 % in April, that of loans
secured by «non-market» assets or guarantees increased from 17 % to 35 % while the share of repo operations
dropped from 15 % to 9 %.
The Bank of Russia extended 1.5 trillion rubles in unsecured loans in January-March 2009, the volume
being reduced to 131.2 billion rubles in April. In 2009 Q1, over 50 % of unsecured loans were extended for
three and six months terms and above 40 % for term
of 5 weeks, whereas in April over 80 % of unsecured
loans were extended for term of 5 weeks.
The volume of operations to extend loans
against the collateral of «non-market» assets or
guarantees increased considerably to reach 0.5 tril -
lion rubles in January-March 2009 (of which 55 %
were provided for terms of three to six months) and
0.3 trillion rubles in April (of which more than 65 %
were extended for terms of six to twelve months).
As the volume of refinancing provided for lon -
ger terms increased and the Bank of Russia reduced
the maximum volume of funds extended at repo
auctions, the amount of repo operations declined
gradually from 8.3 trillion rubles in January to 1.0
trillion rubles in April. The reduction in repo opera -
tions primarily affected overnight repo transactions
concluded in morning sessions.
In March 2009, the Bank of Russia held a
3-month repo auction to provide over 165 billion
rubles. Overall, credit institutions’ average daily debt
to the Bank of Russia on repo operations declined
from 0.4 trillion rubles in January-March to 0.2 tril -
lion rubles in April.
The average monthly volume of Lombard loans
extended by the Bank of Russia decreased to 20 bil -
1 The List of Systemically Important Enterprises was approved by the Government Commission on Sustainable Development
of the Russian Economy , which was set up by Russian Government Resolution No. 957 of December 15, 2008.
20 2009 Q1
end of the first quarter relative to the end of Janu-
ary 2009. Interest rates were observed to decline
in some segments of the debt market in February-
March 2009.
Average interest rates on ruble-denominated
interbank loans increased in the first quarter of
2009 due to their considerable growth in Janu -
ary. In February-March 2009, interest rates on
interbank loans fell considerably and the range
of their fluctuations narrowed. The average quar-
terly MIACR on overnight ruble loans reached
11.4% p.a. in the first quarter as against 8.4%
p.a. in the previous quarter . During the first quar-
ter , the daily MIACR on overnight interbank ruble
loans varied between 5.7% and 27.7% p.a. (as
against 4.6%–21.5% p.a. in the fourth quarter
of 2008). In April 2009, MIACR on overnight in-
terbank ruble loans fluctuated between 7.6% and
11.0% p.a., with the average monthly MIACR
standing at 8.6% p.a., or 0.1 percentage points
lower than in March. Interest rates on 2- to 7-day
interbank ruble loans extended by Russian banks
rose from 9.3% p.a. in the fourth quarter of 2008
to 11.9% p.a. in the first quarter of 2009; interest
rates on 8- to 30-day loans went up from 14.4%
to 16.7% p.a.; interest rates on 1- to 3-month
loans increased from 19.5% to 21.1% p.a.
Household deposit rates continued to rise
in the first quarter due both to increased compe -
tition on the deposit market amid the persisting
strong money demand and a rather high inflation.
The average short-term ruble deposit rate rose by
1.0 percentage point to 10.0% p.a. in 2009 Q1,
quarter on quarter . The average rate on household
ruble deposits with terms of one year to three years
grew by 0.9 percentage points to 10.9% p.a.
Unfavourable market conditions and lim -
ited access to foreign sources of finance, as well
as higher risk of borrowers defaulting on previ -
ous loans led to a rise in average interest rates
on ruble loans to non-financial institutions
in the period under review. The average rate on
short-term loans to non-financial institutions in -
creased by 1.8 percentage points to 16.6% p.a.
in the first quarter of 2009, quarter on quarter ,
while the average quarterly long-term rate on
loans rose by 1.2 percentage points to 15.1%
p.a. There was a rise in average quarterly rates on
loans for all terms in the reported period, espe -
cially in interest rates on loans for terms of six to
lion rubles in March-April as compared with 44 billion rubles in January-February. Lombard loans for terms of 7
and 30 days and three months accounted for the largest part of these loans.
The Bank of Russia average daily debt on instruments used to absorb credit institutions’ temporarily idle
funds rose from 150 billion rubles in the first quarter to 240 billion rubles in April.
Monetary Conditions
2009 Q1 21
twelve months (1.9 percentage points). Interest
rates on loans for terms of over 3 years showed
the slowest growth (1.0 percentage point). There
was a considerable upward shift in the yield curve
for loans to non-financial institutions in the first
quarter , which retained its rising slope in the up
to 6 months section and its declining slope in the
longer-term section. The inclination of the yield
curve remained unchanged, which suggests un -
certainty about interest rate and inflation expecta-
tions of Russian credit market participants.
Interest rates on ruble-denominated loans
to households and other loans increased in the
first quarter of 2009. The average quarterly long-
term credit rate gained 2.3 percentage points
in that period quarter on quarter and reached
19.8% p.a. The average short-term credit rate
was up 2.4 percentage points to 28.4% p.a.
Asset prices
Prices on the Russian stock market showed
mixed dynamics in the first quarter of 2009. Share
prices declined in January amid negative trends
on the global stock and oil markets. The prices of
most Russian shares grew from the last 10 days of
February to the end of March as global oil prices
went up and the situation on the domestic foreign
exchange market stabilised. The average RTS and
22 2009 Q1
MICEX stock indices increased 0.9% and 23.3%,
respectively , in March 2009 on December 2008.
Russian share prices continued to grow in
April. The average monthly MICEX and RTS stock
indices increased 17.7% and 20.9%, respective-
ly , as compared with March.
Corporate stocks prices rose in most sec -
tors of the Russian economy in the first quarter
of 2009. The most significant increase was reg -
istered in share prices of telecommunications, oil
and gas and metallurgy companies. The prices of
shares of major issuers in the banking sector , on
the contrary , declined. In April 2009, corporate
stocks price growth accelerated in most econom-
ic sectors, and there was a general rise, over the
month, in credit institutions’ share prices as well.
Stock indices in most of emerging mar -
ket economies grew slower than the indices of
the Russian stock market, which experienced
the steepest decline in 2008. The stock indices
of Brazil, India and China (collectively known as
BRIC economies along with Russia) grew 18.2%,
25.9% and 36.1%, respectively.
Yields rose on the OFZ bond market in the
first quarter of 2009. At the end of that period,
the OFZ effective market portfolio indicator (MPI)
increased by 1.0 percentage point, quarter on
quarter , and reached 10.1% p.a. The average
Monetary Conditions
2009 Q1 23
Monetary aggregates
In January-March 2009, the ruble supply
contracted by 10.2% in absolute terms (the big -
gest contraction was registered in January when
it fell by 11.1%). The monetary aggregate M2
registered a slight increase in February and March
2009 (0.3% and 0.8% respectively). However ,
this growth was considerably slower than a year
earlier (1.3% and 2.3%). As a result, the annu -
al rate of growth in the monetary aggregate M2
continued to decline in the first quarter of 2009.
The ruble supply contracted by 9.5% in absolute
terms as of April 1, 2009, year on year , hitting its
ten year record low.
Growth in the demand for money continued
to slow down in the first quarter of 2009. Despite
a certain stabilisation of the ruble exchange rate
in February and March, growth in the ruble supply
demand continued to slowdown due to a slump in
economic growth, slower asset price growth and
persistently high inflation rates in the first quarter
of 2009.
In January 2009, a marked weakening of the
ruble against the US dollar and the euro created
strong demand for foreign currency from eco -
nomic agents. As the Bank of Russia continued
large-scale sales of foreign currency on the do -
mestic foreign exchange market in January 2009
quarterly effective MPI gained 1.9 percentage
points and stood at 10.5% p.a. In April 2009,
OFZ yields largely declined, varying between
9.8% and 11.1% p.a. By the end of April, the
OFZ effective MPI had dropped by 0.3 percent-
age points, month on month, to 9.8% p.a. The
average effective MPI declined by 0.4 percentage
points in April, month on month, to 10.4% p.a.
OFZ yields almost did not depend on their
term in the first quarter of 2009. The yields on
bonds with different maturity periods changed
unevenly. The short- and medium-term OFZ yields
grew faster than the yields on long-term govern -
ment securities in January and February. The incli-
nation of the yield curve decreased in March (as
compared with January-February) and became
negative by the end of April, which might have
reflected market participants’ expectations of an
increase in the prices of short- and medium-term
OFZ bonds.
Yields in the main segments of the ruble
bond market showed mixed dynamics in Janu -
ary-April 2009. Corporate and regional bonds
demonstrated a reversal in the price trends in that
period. Bond yields started to decline. Corporate
and regional bond yields, having reached their
all-time record high of 24.8% p.a. and 25.6%
p.a., respectively , in January and February , stood
at 15.4% p.a. and 15.9% p.a. at the end of April.
The spread between the yields on government
and corporate bonds narrowed considerably in
April as compared with January.
24 2009 Q1
to maintain the exchange rate of the national cur-
rency , ruble liquidity and money supply contract-
ed. Completion of the ruble gradual devaluation
at the end of January and emergence of a general
trend towards the strengthening of the national
currency in February-March was accompanied
by a gradual slowing of growth in the demand for
foreign currency from economic agents.
The monetary aggregate M1, which com -
prises cash and demand deposits, contracted
more than any other monetary aggregate in the
first quarter of 2009. In particular , amid a consid-
erable slowdown in economic growth, this mon -
etary aggregate, which reflects the transactional
needs of the economy in money , contracted by
13.7% in absolute terms in the first quarter of
2009 (in the first quarter of 2008, it decreased
by 2.1%). As a result, 2009, the monetary aggre-
gate M1 contracted by 15% in absolute terms as
of April 1, year on year (it grew by 35.2, as of April
1, 2008%). Demand deposits, which are mostly
represented by non-financial institutions’ settle -
ment and current accounts, contracted by 22.5%
in absolute terms from April 1, 2008 to April 1,
2009 (their annual growth stood at 42.8% as of
April 1, 2008).
Cash in circulation (the monetary aggregate
M0) contracted by 13.6% in absolute terms in the
first quarter of 2009 (in January-March 2008, it
fell by 6.1%). The most significant contraction in
Monetary Conditions
2009 Q1 25
(2.2% and 0.9%, respectively) than in the same
months of the previous year (3.8% and 3.1%).
As a result, the growth in ruble-denominated
time deposits continued to slow down in the first
quarter of 2009. The value of ruble time deposits
contracted by 1.8% in absolute terms as of April
1, 2009 year on year (their annual rate of growth
stood at 53.3% as of April 1, 2008).
As in the previous year , the share of household
ruble time deposits in money income continued to
contract in January 2009, reflecting a weakening
of public propensity to save in rubles caused by
high uncertainty , instability of the banking system,
and depreciation of the ruble. At the same time,
the share of foreign currency time deposits in
household money income increased considerably.
Despite a slight slowdown in February-March
2009; there was no marked change in the trend.
The ruble exchange rate dynamics in the
fourth quarter of 2008 and in January 2009 con-
tributed to the persistence of households’ strong
demand for foreign exchange and caused a rapid
increase in the value of foreign currency deposits.
In February-March 2009, amid gradual stabili -
sation and subsequent appreciation of the ruble
against the US dollar and the euro, the month -
ly rate of growth in foreign currency deposits
dropped significantly in dollar terms. However , the
annual rate of growth in foreign currency deposits
remained relatively high as of April 1, 2009 (over
80%). The share of foreign currency deposits in
the total value of deposits in the banking system
the monetary aggregate M0 was registered in Jan-
uary when it shrank by 12.7% due to the house -
holds’ increased demand for foreign exchange
amid persisting instability in the banking sector
and the ruble’s continued slide against the US dol-
lar and the euro. As in the fourth quarter of 2008,
net sales of foreign exchange to households were
considerable in January 2009 and stood at about
$ 9.5 billion. In February-March, amid some stabi-
lisation and gradual growth of the ruble exchange
rate to the US dollar and the euro, net sales of for-
eign exchange to households declined consider -
ably , which also had a certain effect on the M0
dynamics. Overall, the monetary aggregate M0
contracted by 5.7% in absolute terms from April
1, 2008 to April 1, 2009 (the M0 annual growth
stood at 26.8% as of April 1, 2008).
The total value of ruble time deposits of non-
financial institutions and households shrank by
8.6% in absolute terms in January 2009. The
value of household ruble time deposits fell by 5%
in absolute terms in that period. The main reason
for funds outflow from ruble deposits was a con -
siderable depreciation of the ruble against the US
dollar and the euro, which caused a large-scale
conversion of ruble funds into foreign currency-
denominated assets. In February-March 2009,
the value of ruble time deposits started to grow
gradually due to the changes in the exchange
rate dynamics. However , despite interest rate in-
creases, the value of ruble time deposits grew
considerably slower in February and March 2009
26 2009 Q1
loans in ruble terms as a result of a considerable
weakening of the ruble in January 2009. Credit
aggregates contracted in absolute terms in Febru-
ary and March 2009. The annual rate of growth
in foreign currency loans, denominated in US dol-
lars, declined more considerably than that of ruble
credits as borrowers reduced demand for foreign
currency loans in a bid to avoid exchange rate
risk.
In the first quarter of 2009, for the first time
since 2002, the annual rate of growth in loans
to non-financial institutions (27.9% as of April
1, 2009) surpassed that in loans to households
(21% as of April 1, 2009). Apart from that, the
grew considerably to reach 32.2% as of April 1,
2009 (13.5% as of April 1, 2008), while their
share in broad money supply increased to 25.7%
(as against 10.4% as of April 1, 2008).
Credit aggregates
The credit aggregates dynamics in the first
quarter of 2009 reflected the unfavourable situ -
ation on credit markets due to increased cost of
borrowing on the domestic market and lower de-
mand for credit amid general decline in economic
activity. At the same time, credit supply by Rus -
sian banking system was significantly limited as
the deposit base narrowed considerably at the
beginning of the first quarter and the volume of
funds raised on international financial markets
continued to decline. Continued growth in over -
due debt on loans to non-financial institutions
and households in January-March 2009 became
an additional factor behind tightening credit sup-
ply as banks were forced to act carefully due to
deterioration in bank assets quality.
As a result, the annual rate of growth in credit
aggregates continued to decease. As of April 1,
2009, the annual rate of growth in total debt on
loans in rubles and foreign currency decreased to
26.3% from 54.5% a year earlier .
The total value of loans extended to non-
financial institutions and households increased in
absolute terms as compared with the end of the
fourth quarter of 2008. However , this increase
was attributable to revaluation of foreign currency
Monetary Conditions
2009 Q1 27
share of payables in household disposable money
income contracted for the first time in recent years,
which might reflect considerable constraints on
the consumer and mortgage loan markets and,
possibly , some additional negative pressure on
households’ aggregate demand.
The mortgage loan market was one of the
worst hit sectors of the credit market. The value
of newly extended loans declined by more than
5.5 times in the first quarter of 2009 as compared
with the same period of 2008. Mortgage lending
contraction was a key factor affecting demand on
the housing market and contributing to a further
slowdown in housing price growth.
Thus, considering that the annual rates of
growth in money supply and in loans to non-
financial institutions have been decreasing for a
relatively long period (over 18 months in money
supply and during 2008 and 2009 Q1 in loans to
non-financial institutions),it is likely that the mon-
etary pressure on inflation dynamics will gradually
decline in the medium term.
28 2009 Q1
Statistical Addendum
Table 1
Consumer prices by group of goods and services
(month on month, %)
Monthly
inflation
Core
inflation
Food price
growth
Food price
growth 1
Vegetable
and fruit price
growth
Non-food
price growth
Growth in non-
food prices,
excluding petrol
prices 2
Service price
growth
January 1.7 0.6 0.9 0.6 4.1 0.4 0.4 4.7
February 1.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 3.6 0.3 0.4 2.6
March 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.5 3.2 0.4 0.4 0.6
April 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.5 3.1 0.4 0.4 0.5
May 0.6 0.3 1.0 0.1 7.8 0.4 0.3 0.5
June 1.0 0.4 1.7 0.4 12.2 0.3 0.3 0.6
July 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.9 0.4 0.4 0.6
August 0.1 1.1 -0.6 1.6 -16.1 0.6 0.5 0.5
September 0.8 1.6 1.0 2.2 -8.8 0.8 0.8 0.4
October 1.6 2.1 3.3 3.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.1
November 1.2 1.1 1.9 1.5 6.2 0.9 0.8 0.6
December 1.1 0.9 1.6 1.2 5.6 0.7 0.5 0.9
Full year (December on December) 11.9 11.0 15.6 14.9 22.2 6.5 6.4 13.3
January 2.3 1.1 1.9 1.2 8.3 0.6 0.6 5.4
February 1.2 1.0 1.7 1.3 5.1 0.6 0.6 1.4
March 1.2 1.1 2.0 1.5 5.9 0.7 0.7 0.6
April 1.4 1.3 2.2 1.8 5.5 0.9 0.7 1.0
May 1.4 1.1 2.1 1.5 6.4 0.8 0.6 1.0
June 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.7 0.5 1.1
July 0.5 0.8 0.1 1.0 -6.7 0.7 0.5 0.9
August 0.4 1.0 -0.2 1.2 -11.3 0.6 0.6 0.9
September 0.8 1.4 0.7 1.5 -6.4 0.7 0.8 1.0
October 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.8 -0.4 0.8 1.0 0.0
November 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.9 0.7
December 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.7 0.1 0.6 1.0
Full year (December on December) 13.3 13.6 16.5 17.5 7.7 8.0 8.4 13.3
January 2.4 1.3 1.4 1.1 4.7 0.7 1.0 6.3
February 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.5 4.9 1.6 1.8 1.4
March 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.4 4.5 1.4 1.6 0.6
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Since March 2005 – Bank of Russia estimate.
Note. T ables 1 to 7 are based on Rosstat data and Bank of Russia calculations.
Statistical Addendum
2009 Q1 29
Table 2
Consumer prices by group of goods and services
(since start of year on accrual basis, %)
Monthly
inflation
Core
inflation
Food price
growth
Food price
growth 1
Vegetable
and fruit price
growth
Non-food
price growth
Growth in non-
food prices,
excluding petrol
prices 2
Service price
growth
January 1.7 0.6 0.9 0.6 4.1 0.4 0.4 4.7
February 2.8 1.1 1.8 1.1 7.8 0.7 0.8 7.4
March 3.4 1.7 2.6 1.7 11.2 1.1 1.2 8.0
April 4.0 2.2 3.3 2.1 14.7 1.5 1.7 8.6
May 4.7 2.5 4.3 2.3 23.6 1.9 2.0 9.1
June 5.7 3.0 6.1 2.7 38.6 2.2 2.3 9.8
July 6.6 3.9 7.6 4.1 41.2 2.6 2.8 10.5
August 6.7 5.0 7.0 5.8 18.5 3.2 3.3 11.1
September 7.5 6.7 8.1 8.1 8.1 4.0 4.2 11.6
October 9.3 8.9 11.6 11.9 9.0 4.9 5.1 11.7
November 10.6 10.1 13.7 13.5 15.7 5.8 5.9 12.4
December 11.9 11.0 15.6 14.9 22.2 6.5 6.4 13.3
January 2.3 1.1 1.9 1.2 8.3 0.6 0.6 5.4
February 3.5 2.1 3.6 2.5 13.9 1.2 1.2 6.8
March 4.8 3.2 5.7 4.0 20.6 2.0 1.9 7.5
April 6.3 4.5 8.0 5.9 27.2 2.9 2.6 8.5
May 7.7 5.7 10.2 7.5 35.4 3.7 3.2 9.6
June 8.7 6.7 11.4 8.7 36.0 4.4 3.7 10.8
July 9.3 7.6 11.5 9.8 26.9 5.2 4.2 11.9
August 9.7 8.6 11.3 11.2 12.5 5.8 4.9 12.9
September 10.6 10.1 12.1 12.9 5.3 6.5 5.7 14.0
October 11.6 11.5 13.9 14.9 4.8 7.3 6.8 14.1
November 12.5 12.7 15.3 16.3 5.9 7.8 7.8 14.8
December 13.3 13.6 16.5 17.5 7.7 8.0 8.4 13.3
January 2.4 1.3 1.4 1.1 4.7 0.7 1.0 6.3
February 4.1 2.9 3.3 2.6 9.8 2.3 2.8 7.8
March 5.4 4.3 5.0 4.0 14.7 3.8 4.5 8.5
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Since March 2005 – Bank of Russia estimate.
30 2009 Q1
Table 3
Consumer prices by group of goods and services
(month on corresponding month of previous year, %)
Monthly
inflation
Core
inflation
Food price
growth
Food price
growth 1
Vegetable
and fruit price
growth
Non-food
price growth
Growth in non-
food prices,
excluding petrol
prices 2
Service price
growth
January 8.2 7.7 7.6 8.0 3.1 6.0 5.7 12.3
February 7.6 6.9 5.3 6.6 -5.1 5.8 5.6 14.2
March 7.4 6.7 4.9 6.2 -5.2 5.8 5.6 14.0
April 7.6 6.8 5.4 6.3 -1.9 5.9 5.8 13.9
May 7.8 6.7 5.9 6.3 3.0 5.9 5.7 13.8
June 8.5 6.9 7.7 6.6 16.2 5.9 5.7 13.7
July 8.7 7.3 8.3 7.4 15.3 5.9 5.8 13.7
August 8.6 7.8 8.3 8.3 7.5 5.7 5.8 13.4
September 9.4 8.7 10.0 10.0 10.2 5.8 6.1 13.4
October 10.8 10.3 13.6 13.4 15.9 6.0 6.3 13.1
November 11.5 10.9 14.9 14.4 19.8 6.3 6.4 13.2
December 11.9 11.0 15.6 14.9 22.2 6.5 6.4 13.3
January 12.6 11.5 16.7 15.7 27.2 6.8 6.6 14.1
February 12.7 12.1 17.6 16.5 29.1 7.0 6.8 12.7
March 13.3 12.7 19.1 17.6 32.6 7.4 7.1 12.7
April 14.3 13.5 20.8 19.1 35.6 8.0 7.4 13.3
May 15.1 14.5 22.1 20.8 33.9 8.4 7.7 13.9
June 15.1 15.1 21.3 21.7 19.9 8.9 7.9 14.4
July 14.7 15.0 19.8 21.2 9.8 9.2 8.0 14.7
August 15.0 14.8 20.2 20.8 16.1 9.2 8.1 15.2
September 15.0 14.5 19.9 20.0 19.0 9.1 8.1 15.9
October 14.2 13.7 17.9 18.0 17.5 9.1 8.2 15.7
November 13.8 13.7 17.2 17.7 11.9 8.6 8.4 15.8
December 13.3 13.6 16.5 17.5 7.7 8.0 8.4 13.3
January 13.4 13.9 15.9 17.3 4.1 8.1 8.9 16.9
February 13.9 14.6 16.1 17.6 3.8 9.2 10.2 17.0
March 14.0 14.9 15.8 17.4 2.5 9.9 11.2 17.0
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Since March 2005 – Bank of Russia estimate.
Statistical Addendum
2009 Q1 31
Table 4
Inflation growth over period since start of year due to price changes
by group of goods and services (percentage points)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food
products
Paid
services
Vegetables and
fruit
Inflation over
period, %
Core
inflation
Non-core
inflation 2
January 0.2 0.1 1.2 0.2 1.7 0.5 1.2
February 0.4 0.3 1.8 0.3 2.8 0.9 1.9
March 0.6 0.4 2.0 0.4 3.4 1.3 2.1
April 0.8 0.5 2.1 0.6 4.0 1.7 2.3
May 0.8 0.7 2.3 0.9 4.7 1.9 2.7
June 1.0 0.8 2.4 1.5 5.7 2.3 3.4
July 1.5 0.9 2.6 1.6 6.6 3.0 3.6
August 2.1 1.1 2.7 0.7 6.7 3.9 2.8
September 3.0 1.4 2.9 0.3 7.5 5.3 2.3
October 4.3 1.7 2.9 0.3 9.3 7.0 2.3
November 4.9 2.0 3.1 0.6 10.6 7.9 2.7
December 5.4 2.3 3.3 0.9 11.9 8.7 3.2
January 0.4 0.2 1.3 0.3 2.3 0.8 1.5
February 0.9 0.4 1.7 0.5 3.5 1.6 1.9
March 1.4 0.7 1.9 0.8 4.8 2.5 2.3
April 2.1 1.0 2.1 1.0 6.3 3.6 2.7
May 2.6 1.3 2.4 1.4 7.7 4.5 3.2
June 3.1 1.6 2.7 1.4 8.7 5.3 3.5
July 3.5 1.9 3.0 1.0 9.3 6.0 3.3
August 3.9 2.1 3.2 0.5 9.7 6.8 2.9
September 4.5 2.3 3.5 0.2 10.6 8.0 2.6
October 5.2 2.6 3.5 0.2 11.6 9.2 2.4
November 5.8 2.8 3.7 0.2 12.5 10.1 2.4
December 6.2 2.9 4.0 0.3 13.3 10.8 2.5
January 0.4 0.3 1.6 0.2 2.4 1.0 1.4
February 0.9 0.9 2.0 0.4 4.1 2.4 1.7
March 1.4 1.4 2.1 0.5 5.4 3.5 2.0
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
32 2009 Q1
Table 5
Monthly inflation growth due to price changes
by group of goods and services (percentage points)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food
products
Paid
services
Vegetables
and fruit
Inflation over
period, %
Core
inflation
Non-core
inflation 2
January 0.2 0.1 1.2 0.2 1.7 0.5 1.2
February 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.1 1.1 0.4 0.7
March 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.2
April 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.2
May 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.4
June 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.6
July 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.2
August 0.6 0.2 0.1 -0.8 0.1 0.8 -0.7
September 0.8 0.3 0.1 -0.4 0.8 1.3 -0.5
October 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.6 1.6 0.0
November 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 1.2 0.8 0.4
December 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.1 0.7 0.5
January 0.4 0.2 1.3 0.3 2.3 0.8 1.5
February 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 1.2 0.8 0.4
March 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 1.2 0.8 0.3
April 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 1.4 1.0 0.4
May 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.4 0.9 0.5
June 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.0 0.7 0.2
July 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.3 0.5 0.7 -0.1
August 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.5 0.4 0.8 -0.4
September 0.5 0.2 0.3 -0.3 0.8 1.1 -0.3
October 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.9 1.1 -0.2
November 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.0
December 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1
January 0.4 0.3 1.6 0.2 2.4 1.0 1.4
February 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.7 1.3 0.3
March 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 1.3 1.1 0.2
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
Statistical Addendum
2009 Q1 33
Table 6
Contribution to inflation growth over period since start of year
by group of goods and services (%)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food products Paid services Vegetables and fruit Core inflation Non-core inflation 2
January 13.4 8.3 69.0 9.3 29.5 70.5
February 14.9 9.2 65.3 10.6 31.3 68.7
March 17.8 11.6 58.1 12.5 38.3 61.7
April 19.6 13.5 52.9 14.1 42.8 57.2
May 18.0 14.3 48.3 19.4 41.6 58.4
June 17.6 13.7 42.7 26.0 40.4 59.6
July 22.9 13.9 39.2 23.9 45.8 54.2
August 31.7 16.9 40.8 10.6 58.5 41.5
September 39.3 18.7 37.9 4.1 69.9 30.1
October 46.6 18.6 31.1 3.7 75.4 24.6
November 46.3 19.2 28.8 5.7 74.5 25.5
December 45.7 19.4 27.8 7.2 72.8 27.2
January 18.9 9.3 58.1 13.7 36.2 63.8
February 25.1 12.1 47.9 14.9 46.1 53.9
March 29.7 14.7 39.0 16.6 52.7 47.3
April 33.0 16.5 33.9 16.6 57.0 43.0
May 34.2 17.1 31.1 17.6 58.5 41.5
June 35.2 18.2 30.8 15.7 60.5 39.5
July 37.3 19.9 31.7 11.1 64.4 35.6
August 40.6 21.4 33.0 5.0 70.5 29.5
September 43.0 22.0 33.1 1.9 75.7 24.3
October 45.3 22.9 30.2 1.6 79.2 20.8
November 46.0 22.6 29.6 1.8 80.8 19.2
December 46.4 21.6 29.8 2.2 81.5 18.5
January 15.6 11.3 66.2 7.0 42.3 57.7
February 22.1 21.5 47.9 8.6 57.7 42.3
March 25.3 26.1 38.9 9.7 64.0 36.0
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and paid services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
34 2009 Q1
Table 7
Contribution to monthly inflation growth
by group of goods and services (%)
Foodstuffs 1 Non-food products Paid services Vegetables and fruit Core inflation Non-core inflation 2
January 13.4 8.3 69.0 9.3 29.5 70.5
February 17.1 10.6 59.7 12.6 34.2 65.8
March 31.4 22.7 24.5 21.4 70.7 29.3
April 30.0 24.6 22.3 23.1 69.6 30.4
May 8.4 19.5 20.6 51.6 34.4 65.6
June 15.8 10.7 17.0 56.5 35.1 64.9
July 55.9 15.7 17.4 10.9 79.2 20.8
August 724.2 250.9 165.2 -1,040.4 1,016.5 -916.5
September 99.9 33.4 14.7 -48.0 160.7 -60.7
October 78.5 18.2 1.2 2.1 99.3 0.7
November 43.6 23.6 13.3 19.5 67.8 32.2
December 39.2 21.6 19.2 20.0 56.7 43.3
January 18.9 9.3 58.1 13.7 36.2 63.8
February 36.8 17.4 28.5 17.3 64.9 35.1
March 43.2 22.6 12.8 21.4 72.2 27.8
April 43.5 22.0 17.6 16.9 70.3 29.7
May 39.1 20.1 18.9 21.9 65.2 34.8
June 42.7 26.5 28.7 2.2 74.5 25.5
July 69.6 47.5 45.8 -62.9 125.6 -25.6
August 122.9 59.3 67.5 -149.7 225.0 -125.0
September 69.7 29.4 34.5 -33.6 136.6 -36.6
October 69.5 32.2 -0.1 -1.7 116.9 -16.9
November 54.4 19.8 21.2 4.7 100.5 -0.5
December 50.8 5.9 34.3 8.9 91.7 8.3
January 15.6 11.3 66.2 7.0 42.3 57.7
February 31.2 35.9 22.0 10.9 79.5 20.5
March 35.2 40.0 11.7 13.1 83.0 17.0
1 Excluding vegetables and fruit.
2 Growth in prices of goods and services not included in the calculation of the core consumer price index.
Statistical Addendum
2009 Q1 35
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Macroeconomic indicators
GDP
over period since start of year, billion roubles
2006 5,812 12,202 19,501 26,904
2007 6,750 14,515 23,419 33,111
2008 8,891 19,084 30,724 41,668
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2006 106.6 107.1 107.3 107.7
2007 107.5 107.8 107.8 108.1
2008 108.7 108.1 107.1 105.6
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2006 106.6 107.6 107.8 108.5
2007 107.5 108.0 107.7 109.0
2008 108.7 107.5 106.0 101.2
Industrial output indices
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2007 107.2 107.1 105.5 105.7
2008 106.2 105.5 104.7 93.9
2009 85.7
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2007 107.2 107.1 106.6 106.3
2008 106.2 105.8 105.4 102.1
2009 85.7
Agricultural output
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2007 103.5 104.4 103.2 103.2
2008 105.5 106.9 113.0 115.6
2009 102.1
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2007 103.5 104.1 103.5 103.4
2008 105.5 106.4 109.6 110.8
2009 102.1
Fixed capital investment
over period since start of year, billion roubles
2007 924.0 2,387.0 4,174.1 6,716.2
2008 1,355.4 3,411.7 5,826.7 8,764.9
2009 1,297.0
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2007 123.8 125.4 119.8 122.8
2008 123.6 117.4 111.7 97.7
2009 85.0
Retail trade turnover
over period since start of year, billion roubles
2007 2,257.8 4,800.4 7,599.6 10,869.0
2008 2,951.5 6,276.2 9,932.5 13,914.6
2009 3,272.2
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2007 114.8 115.8 116.8 116.8
2008 117.2 114.8 114.9 108.6
2009 98.9
Federal budget on accrual
basis, as of end of period
revenue
billion roubles
2007 1,421.9 3,245.7 5,087.6 7,781.1
2008 1,932.7 4,370.7 7,155.7 9,275.9
2009 1,732.7
as % of GDP
2007 21.1 22.3 21.7 23.5
2008 21.7 22.9 23.3 22.3
2009 21.1 1
expenditure
billion roubles
2007 945.6 2,169.7 3,464.3 5,986.6
2008 1,332.7 2,995.6 4,594.2 7,570.9
2009 1,762.4
as % of GDP
2007 14.0 14.9 14.8 18.1
2008 15.0 15.7 15.0 18.2
2009 21.5 1
Federal budget surplus (+)/deficit (-) on accrual
basis, as of end of period
billion roubles
2007 476.3 1,076.1 1,623.2 1,794.6
2008 600.0 1,375.1 2,561.5 1,705.0
2009 -29.7
as % of GDP
2007 7.1 7.4 6.9 5.4
2008 6.7 7.2 8.3 4.1
2009 -0.4 1
Table 8
Russia’s key macroeconomic and financial indicators
Note: T able 8 is based on data compiled by the Bank of Russia, the Federal State Statistics Service, the Ministry of Finance of the
Russian Federation and the Federal T reasury.
36 2009 Q1
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Socio-economic indicators
Nominal imputed average
monthly per employee wage
roubles
2007 11,876 12,993 13,494 15,742
2008 15,424 16,962 17,556 18,966
2009 17,202
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2007 127.3 125.9 124.0 129.3
2008 128.0 129.2 129.0 119.5
2009 111.1
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2007 127.3 126.6 125.7 127.8
2008 128.0 128.6 128.7 125.9
2009 111.1
Real imputed average monthly per employee wage, as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2007 118.2 116.6 113.9 116.1
2008 113.4 112.5 112.2 105.0
2009 97.7
Household money income (per capita monthly average), roubles
2007 9,976.9 11,987.8 12,725.8 15,677.9
2008 12,374.8 14,876.2 15,866.8 17,396.6
2009 13,761.7
Household real disposable
money income
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2007 111.9 110.0 112.4 113.0
2008 108.0 106.2 106.2 94.2
2009 97.7
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2007 111.9 … … 112.1
2008 108.0 107.1 106.8 102.9
2009 97.7
Household spending, as % of
income
purchase of goods and services
2007 73.6 69.3 71.2 66.0
2008 76.5 71.6 73.4 71.7
2009 76.8
compulsory payments and contributions
2007 12.0 11.9 11.6 11.6
2008 12.7 12.5 12.7 14.1
2009 11.9
growth in savings
2007 10.2 9.0 8.1 11.0
2008 7.7 8.2 5.8 2.5
2009 7.5
foreign exchange purchase
2007 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1
2008 6.9 4.7 5.6 13.3
2009 10.6
cash on hand
2007 -1.0 4.6 3.9 6.3
2008 -3.8 3.0 2.5 -1.6
2009 -6.8
Average imputed pension, total, roubles
2007 2,846 3,091 3,108 3,418
2008 3,823 4,044 4,383 4,545
2009 4,614
Real imputed pension
as % of corresponding quarter of previous year
2007 104.1 104.9 102.0 108.1
2008 119.0 113.9 122.7 116.9
2009 106.1
over period since start of year, as % of corresponding period of previous
year
2007 104.1 104.5 103.6 104.8
2008 119.0 116.4 118.6 118.1
2009 106.1
Total number of unemployed
(calculated using ILO
methodology)
million
2007 5.2 4.5 4.3 4.4
2008 5.1 4.3 4.5 5.4
2009 7.0
as % of economically active population
2007 7.0 6.0 5.7 5.8
2008 6.7 5.6 5.9 7.1
2009 9.4
Table 8 (continued)
Statistical Addendum
2009 Q1 37
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Foreign economic activities
Price of Urals crude
over period since start of year, $/barrel
2007 54.0 59.7 64.0 69.5
2008 93.7 105.3 107.6 93.9
2009 43.2
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2007 93.5 97.7 102.4 114.1
2008 173.7 176.3 168.2 135.1
2009 46.1
Exports of goods
over period since start of year, $ billion
2007 71.7 155.4 244.9 354.4
2008 110.1 236.8 373.6 471.6
2009 60.1 2
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2007 106.5 108.0 109.5 116.8
2008 153.6 152.4 152.5 133.1
2009 54.6 2
Imports of goods
over period since start of year, $ billion
2007 42.8 95.5 153.9 223.5
2008 60.2 135.7 218.6 291.9
2009 38.4 2
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2007 138.6 137.1 137.0 136.0
2008 140.8 142.0 142.0 130.6
2009 63.7 2
Current account (over period since start of year), $ billion
2007 22.6 37.1 52.8 77.0
2008 38.0 64.2 93.7 102.3
2009 11.1 2
Private sector net capital outflow (inflow) (over period since start of year), $ billion
2007 13.8 68.1 60.9 82.4
2008 -23.6 17.1 -2.1 -132.7
2009 -38.8 2
Foreign investment in Russia’s non-financial sector
(Rosstat data)
over period since start of year, $ billion
2006 8.8 23.4 35.3 55.1
2007 24.6 60.3 87.9 120.9
2008 17.3 46.5 75.8 103.8
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2006 146.0 141.9 131.7 102.7
2007 2.8 times 2.6 times. 2.5 times 2.2 times
2008 70.1 77.1 86.2 85.8
of which:
direct
over period since start of year, $ billion
2006 3.8 6.4 10.3 13.7
2007 9.8 15.8 19.6 27.8
2008 5.6 11.1 19.2 27.0
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2006 2.0 times 143.6 155.5 104.6
2007 2.5 times. 2.5 times 191.3 2.0 times
2008 57.2 70.0 97.7 97.2
portfolio
over period since start of year, $ billion
2006 0.2 0.5 0.7 3.2
2007 0.2 1.1 1.5 4.2
2008 0.1 1.2 1.3 1.4
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2006 2.9 times. 2.9 times 182.3 7.0 times.
2007 85.8 2.2 times. 2.3 times 131.8
2008 62.5 104.4 83.7 33.7
other
over period since start of year, $ billion
2006 4.7 16.5 24.4 38.2
2007 14.7 43.4 66.7 89.0
2008 11.5 34.3 55.3 75.3
as % of corresponding period of previous year
2006 117.2 139.1 122.8 95.3
2007 3.1 times 2.6 times 2.7 times. 2.3 times
2008 78.7 79.0 82.8 84.7
Russia’s international reserves (as of end of period), $ billion
2007 338.8 405.8 425.4 478.8
2008 512.6 569.0 556.8 427.1
2009 383.9
Real rouble exchange rate indices, last month of
quarter (growth as % of December of previous
year) 3
rouble vs. US dollar
2007 2.3 3.8 8.1 15
2008 6.5 8.5 3.2 -1.1
2009 -15.4
rouble vs. euro
2007 3.1 4.1 4.5 5.8
2008 0.6 3.4 6.2 5
2009 -12
effective rate
2007 2.7 3.3 3.8 5.1
2008 1.5 3.3 3 4.3
2009 -10.0 2
Table 8 (continued)
38 2009 Q1
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Financial market indicators (including Sberbank rates)
Average for period
Overnight interbank credit
rate, % p.a.
in roubles
2007 3.9 3.4 4.9 5.4
2008 3.9 4.1 6.0 8.6
2009 11.6
in US dollars
2007 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.5
2008 3.2 2.2 2.2 0.7
2009 0.2
OFZ yields 4, % p.a.
2007 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6
2008 6.7 6.9 7.5 8.7
2009 10.5
Interest rate on household
time deposits, % p.a.
up to 1 year in roubles
2007 7.4 7.3 7.0 7.2
2008 7.0 7.1 7.5 9.0
2009 10.0
over 1 year in roubles
2007 7.9 7.5 7.1 6.8
2008 7.4 8.0 8.5 9.1
2009 10.0
up to 1 year in US dollars
2007 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2
2008 5.1 5.8 5.3 6.5
2009 6.0
over 1 year in US dollars
2007 6.8 6.6 6.4 7.0
2008 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.8
2009 6.5
Interest rate on credit to non-
financial organisations, % p.a.
up to 1 year in roubles
2007 9.9 9.6 9.8 10.7
2008 10.9 11.2 12.0 14.9
2009 16.6
over 1 year in roubles
2007 12.1 11.5 11.0 11.4
2008 12.3 12.8 13.6 13.8
2009 15.1
up to 1 year in US dollars
2007 8.7 8.8 8.4 9.1
2008 8.1 8.0 8.9 10.9
2009 10.7
over 1 year in US dollars
2007 10.3 10.1 9.3 9.8
2008 9.3 9.9 9.4 11.3
2009 12.7
Interest rate on rouble-denominated promissory notes discounted by banks, % p.a.
2007 9.5 8.9 10.8 10.8
2008 10.7 11.0 12.1 14.1
2009 15.7
MICEX rate in ‘tomorrow’ trades, rouble/$
2007 26.3056 25.8599 25.5043 24.6525
2008 24.2286 23.6190 24.2718 27.2941
2009 34.4761
As of end of quarter
RTS index, points
2007 1,935.72 1,897.70 2,071.80 2,290.51
2008 2,053.93 2,303.34 1,211.84 631.89
2009 689.63
Refinance rate, % p.a.
2007 10.5 10.0 10.0 10.0
2008 10.25 10.75 11.0 13.0
2009 13.0
Table 8 (continued)
Statistical Addendum
2009 Q1 39
Table 8 (end)
Year 1.01 1.04 1.07 1.10
Monetary indicators
M0, billion roubles
2007 2,785.2 2,741.2 3,027.5 3,220.9
2008 3,702.2 3,475.5 3,724.9 3,904.2
2009 3,794.8 3,278.3
M2, billion roubles
2007 8,995.8 9,412.6 10,857.7 11,494.0
2008 13,272.1 13,382.9 14 244.7 14,374.6
2009 13,493.2 12,111.7
Obligations included in broad money, billion roubles
2007 10,149.4 10,898.4 12,033.4 12,699.7
2008 14,636.7 14,918.3 15,926.6 16,067.8
2009 16,774.7 1 16,308.4 1
Net foreign assets, billion roubles
2007 6,881.5 7,927.4 8,714.1 9,047.0
2008 9,923.4 10,541.0 11,278.7 12,280.0
2009 12,218.7 1 12,885.2 1
Domestic claims, billion roubles
2007 5,799.2 5,798.6 6,331.1 6,771.7
2008 8,325.9 8,437.2 8,760.6 8,614.9
2009 10,660.8 1 10,307.6 1
Broad monetary base, billion roubles
2007 4,122.4 4,210.2 5,139.1 4,587.2
2008 5,513.3 4,871.4 5,422.9 5,317.8
2009 5,578.7 4,298.8
Balances of correspondent accounts, billion roubles
2007 638.1 518.1 528.7 576.3
2008 802.2 596.3 592.4 702.9
2009 1,027.6 431.7
M2 velocity
annual average
2007 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2
2008 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.1
2009 3.1 1 3.1 1
change since start of year, %
2007 -13.2 5 -6.0 -12.1 -16.1
2008 -18.6 5 -2.6 -3.0 -2.2
2009 -2.1 5 2.0 1
Monetisation of the economy (by M2 aggregate), %
2007 26.1 27.8 29.7 31.1
2008 32.1 32.9 33.1 32.8
2009 32.7 1 32.1 1
Money multiplier
by broad monetary base
2007 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.5
2008 2.4 2.8 2.6 2.7
2009 2.4 2.8
change since start of year, %
2007 5.2 5 2.5 -3.2 14.8
2008 10.3 5 14.1 9.1 12.3
2009 0.5 5 16.6
Foreign exchange rates
roubles per US dollar
2007 26.33 26.01 25.82 24.95
2008 24.55 23.50 23.41 25.37
2009 29.39 33.90
roubles per euro
2007 34.70 34.69 34.72 35.35
2008 35.93 37.09 36.97 36.50
2009 41.43 44.89
1 Preliminary data.
2 Estimate.
3 (+) signifies appreciation of the ruble, (-) signifies depreciation of the ruble.
4 OFZ effective market portfolio indicator.
5 Relative to beginning of previous year.
40 2009 Q1
Table 9
Bank of Russia interest rates (% p.a.)
Instrument Liquidity provision/
absorption period
Interest rate, % p.a.
1.01.09 –
1.02.09
2.02.09 –
9.02.09
10.02.09 –
23.04.09
24.04.09 –
13.05.09 Since 14.05.09
Providing liquidity at offered bids (including by auction)
Repo operations 1
1 day 9.00 9.00 10.00 9.50 9.00
1 week 9.50 9.50 10.50 10.00 9.50
3 months 10.50 10.50 11.50 11.00 10.75
6 months 11.25 11.25 12.25 11.75 11.25
12 months 11.75 11.75 12.75 12.25 11.75
Currency swap operations 2 1 day 13.00 13.00 13.00 12.50 12.00
Unsecured loans up to 6 months minimum rate is set when auction is announced
Lombard loans 1,3
2 weeks 9.50 9.50 10.50 10.00 9.50
3 months 10.50 10.50 11.50 11.00 10.75
6 months 2 11.25 11.25 12.25 11.75 11.25
12 months 2 11.75 11.75 12.75 12.25 11.75
Providing liquidity at fixed rates
Overnight loans 3,4 1 day 13.00 13.00 13.00 12.50 12.00
Lombard loans 3
1 day 10.00 11.00 12.00 11.50 11.00
7 days 10.00 11.00 12.00 11.50 11.00
30 days 10.25 11.00 12.00 11.50 11.00
Repo operations 1 day 10.00 11.00 12.00 11.50 11.00
7 days 10.00 11.00 12.00 11.50 11.00
Loans secured by “non-market” assets or
guarantees 4
up to 90 days 11.00 11.25 12.00 11.50 11.00
91 to 180 days 12.00 12.00 12.50 12.00 11.50
181 to 365 days 5 13.00 13.00 13.00 12.50 12.00
Absorbing liquidity at fixed rates
Deposit operations Tom-next, spot-next and call 6.75 6.75 7.75 7.25 6.75
1 week, spot-week 7.25 7.25 8.25 7.75 7.25
1 Minimum interest rate.
2 Interest rate set on the ruble part when determining the minimum offered swap difference.
3 Pursuant to Bank of Russia Regulation No. 236-P of August 4, 2003.
4 Pursuant to Bank of Russia Regulation No. 312-P of November 12, 2007.
5 From January 20, 2009.
Statistical Addendum
2009 Q1 41
Table 10
Bank required reserve ratios (%)
Required reserve ratio for bank obligations
to non-resident banks in Russian and
foreign currency
Required reserve ratio for obligations to
individuals in Russian currency
Required reserve ratio for other bank
obligations in Russian and foreign currency
July 1, 2007 – October 10, 2007 4.5 4.0 4.5
October 11, 2007 – January 14, 2008 3.5 3.0 3.5
January 15, 2008 – February 29, 2008 4.5 4.0 4.5
March 1, 2008 – June 30, 2008 5.5 4.5 5.0
July 1, 2008 – August 31, 2008 7.0 5.0 5.5
September 1, 2008 – September 17, 2008 8.5 5.5 6.0
September 18, 2008 – October 14, 2008 4.5 1.5 2.0
October 15, 2008 – April 30, 2009 0.5 0.5 0.5
May 1, 2009 – May 31, 2009 1.0 1.0 1.0
June 1, 2009 – June 30, 2009 1.5 1.5 1.5
July 1, 2009 – July 31, 2009 2.0 2.0 2.0
August 1, 2009 - 2.5 2.5 2.5
© The Central Bank of the Russian Federation, 2009
Research and Information Department