NBP MPC Press Release - 2024-09-01
Central bank: nbp | Type: decision | Date: 2024-09-01

Warsaw, 4 September 2024
Information from the meeting of the Monetary Policy Council
held on 3-4 September 2024
The Council decided to keep the NBP interest rates unchanged:
▪ reference rate at 5.75%;
▪ lombard rate at 6.25%;
▪ deposit rate at 5.25%;
▪ rediscount rate at 5.80%;
▪ discount rate at 5.85%.
The economic conditions in the environment of the Polish economy are still weakened. In
2024 Q2, the annual GDP growth in the euro area, particularly in Germany, remained low.
In the United States the annual GDP growth remains relatively high , despite some
deterioration in labour market conditions. Uncertainty about the activity outlook in the
largest economies persists.
Inflation in the major advanced economies is running slightly above the central banks
inflation targets. Inflation is driven down by the reduction of cost pressures reflected in
low producer price growth, and by the weak activity growth in some economies. At the
same time , core inflation is running slightly above headline inflation amid elevated
growth in services prices.
In Poland , a gradual economic recovery continues . According to Statistics Poland
preliminary estimate, GDP grew by 3.2% y/y in 2024 Q2. The GDP growth was positively
affected primarily by a n increase in consumption demand. In July 2024, retail sales and
industrial production were higher, while construction and assembly output was lower
than a year ago. In the labour market unemployment remains low and the number of
working persons continues to be high, although employment in the enterprise sector in
July 2024 was lower than a year ago. At the same time , the wage growth is still running
on the high level.
According to the Statistics Poland flash estimate, annual CPI inflation in August 2024 was
4.3% (against 4.2% in July and 2.6% in June 2024). The rise in inflation against June was
mainly a result of increases in administered prices of energy carriers, as well as – albeit to
a lesser extent – an increase in annual growth in prices of food and non -alcoholic
beverages. At the same time, inflation net of food and energy prices was relatively stable
in recent months , following an earlier decline. In July 2024, the annual fall in producer
prices remained significant.
In the Council’s assessment, incoming data indicate that despite the observed economic
recovery, demand and cost pressures in the Polish economy remain relatively low, which
amidst weakened economic conditions and lower inflation pressure abroad curbs
domestic inflation pressure. Council judges that consumer price growth is also constrained
by the appreciation of the zloty exchange rate, which is consistent with the fundamentals
of the Polish economy. However, price pressure in the domestic economy is stimulated by
a marked wage growth, stemming i.a. from wage increases in the public sector. Alongside
that, the rise in prices of energy carriers increases inflation significantly. This factor will
continue to affect the annual inflation rate in the coming quarters. When the effects of the
energy price increase fade – amid the current NBP interest rates level – inflation should
return to the medium-term NBP target, although the impact of higher energy prices on the
inflation expectations is an uncertainty factor. The inflation developments over the
medium term will be also affected by the further fiscal and regulatory polic y measures,
the pace of economic recovery in Poland and the labour market conditions.
Against this background, the Council decided to keep the NBP interest rates unchanged.
The Council judges that the current level of the NBP interest rates is conducive to meeting
the NBP inflation target in the medium term.
Further decisions of the Council will depend on incoming information regarding
prospects for inflation and economic activity.
NBP will continue to take all necessary actions in order to ensure macroeconomic and
financial stability, including above all to bring inflation down sustainably to the NBP
inflation target in the medium term. NBP may intervene in the foreign exchange market.