CBN MPC Communique No. 124 - May 2019
Central bank: cbn | Type: statement | Date: 2019-05-21

CENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA COMMUNIQUÉ NO. 124 OF THE MONETARY POLICY
COMMITTEE MEETING OF MONDAY 20TH AND TUESDAY 21ST MAY, 2019
Background
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on the 20th and 21st of May 2019,
amidst uncertainties in the global financial, economic and political
environments. All Eleven (11) members of the Committee were present.
Global Economic Developments
The Committee reviewed developments in the global economy, noting with
concern, the declining trend in global output growth, which commenced in
the second half of 2018 . Accordingly, the I nternational Monetary Fund
downgraded global output growth from 3.7 per cent in 2018 to 3.6 per cent
in 2019 and further revised it downwards to 3.3 per cent in 2019. The decrease
in the global composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in t he last three
months provides further fillip to this downgrade. The Committee noted that
the weakening global output growth continued amidst prevailing
uncertainties from familiar headwinds including: the further escalation of
trade ten sions between the US and China ; imposition of new rounds of
sanctions on Iran; breakdown of BREXIT negotiations; a new wave of tension
on the Korean Peninsula ; vulnerabilities in major financial markets and rising
public and private debt in some Emerging Market and Developing
Economies (EMDEs).
Despite these uncertainties , inflation in the advanced economies remained
muted and largely below the ir 2.0 per cent long-run targets. As a result, m ost
central banks in the advanced econom ies, including the US Fed, Bank of
England and the European Central Bank , adopted a dovish monetary policy
stance, which is expected to remain in place in the near to medium term , as
signs of weakness i n the global economy re -emerged. In the E merging
Market Developing Economies, however, developments were mixed , with
inflation rising in some, but moderating in others. In response , the financial
markets witnessed the rebalancing of portfolios from equities to fixed income
securities, and some stock markets posting losses. In the main , the Emerging
Market Developing Economies are expected to continue to benefit from th e
accommodative monetary policy stance of the advanced economies
through increased capital inflows.
Domestic Output Developments
Available output data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed
that real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.01 per cent in the first
quarter of 2019 compared with 2.38 and 1.89 per cent in the previous and
corresponding quarters of 2018 , respectively . This was largely driven by the
non-oil sector, which grew by 2.47 per cent in the first quarter of 2019 while
the oil sector contracted by 2.40 per cent. Staff projections indicate real GDP
growth of 2.34 and 2.36 per cent in Q2 2019 and Q3 2019, respect ively,
including a reduction in the unemployment rate. The M onetary Policy
Committee observed that actual output remains below potential, implying
that the economy still ha d sufficient headroom for non -inflationary growth.
This is expected to be driven lar gely by sustained stability in the financial
system; continued special interventions in Agriculture , manufacturing and
SMEs sectors, by the Bank; sustained effort in improving transport infrastructure
to address distribution challenges; continued expansion of business activit ies
as indicated by the PMI and increased supply of foreign exchange to
growth-stimulating sectors of the economy, among others.
The Committee noted the continued expansion of the Manufacturing and
Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI) for the 25 th and 24th
consecutive months in April 2019 and broadly welcomed this positive
development in economic activit ies in Nigeria. The manufacturing PMI grew
by 57.7 index po ints compared with 57.4 index points in the previous month.
Similarly, the non -manufacturing PMI grew by 58.7 index points compared
with 58.5 index points in March 2019. The growth in both measures of PMI
were anchored by marginal increases in production, employment level and
new orders.
Developments in Money and Prices
The Committee noted the growth in broad money supply ( M3) by 5.42 per
cent in April 2019 from the level at end -December 2018, annualize d to 16.36
per cent , above the indicative benchmark rate of 14.47 per cent for 2019 .
This was largely driven by the growth of 19.62 per cent in Net Domestic Asset s
(NDA). In contrast, Net Foreign Assets (NFA) contracted by 5.83 per cent in
April 2019 relative to the level at end -December 2018. In spite of the
significant underperformance of M1 at -4.26 per cent annualised to -12.77 per
cent, M2 grew by 1.85 per cent in April 2019, annualized to 5.54 per cent ,
which was significantly below the benchmark rate of 12.99 per cent for 2019.
This development was largely due to the growth in time and savings deposit s
by 6.53 per cent. The Net Domestic Credit (NDC) grew by 19.31 per cent in
April 2019 from the level at end -December 2018 , annualize d to 57.92 per
cent, above its indicative benchmark of 11.82 per cent . The growth in NDC
was attributed to the significant increase in credit to both government and
the private sector by 64.44 and 9.64 per cent , respectively, in April 2019,
compared with end-December 2018. The Committee noted the
developments in the monetary aggregates and enjoined the Bank to initiate
moves to wards improving lending to the private sector and urged other
intermediary institutions in the financial sector to support these initiatives by
improving their credit delivery to boost output growth.
The Committee noted the uptick in inflation as headline inflation (year -on-
year) rose slightly to 11.37 per cent in April 2019 from 11.25 per cent in March
2019. The increase in headline inflation was driven mainly by f ood inflation
which rose by 13.70 per cent in April 2019 from 13.45 per cent in March 2019.
Core inflation, however, declined marginally to 9.28 per cent in April from 9.46
per cent in March 2019. In April 2019, month-on-month headline, food and
core inflation increased to 0.94, 1.14 and 0.70 per cent from 0.7 9, 0.88 and
0.53 per cent in March 2019 , respectively . The MPC noted that the recent
uptick in inflationary pressure was seasonally driven and anticipated.
Liquidity conditions in the banking system reflected the net impact of O pen
Market Operations (OMO) auctions, maturing CBN Bills, statutory allocations
to states and local governments as well as interventions by the CBN in the
foreign exchange market. Consequently, the monthly weighted average
Inter-bank call and Open Buy Back (OBB) rates increased to 13.98 and 16.15
per cent in April 2019 from 10.80 and 1 2.17 per cent in March 2019,
respectively. The daily unsecured interbank and the OBB rate, fluctuated
within the standing facilities corridor, closing at 6.57 per cent and 5.55 per
cent on May 10 and May 16, 2019, respectively, reflecting the reaction of the
money market to the 50 basis point reduction in the policy rate at the
meeting of the MPC in March 2019.
The Committee observed the continued bearish trend in the equities market
in spite of the sustained capital inflows into the economy during the period
under review. The All-Share Index declined by 8.14 per cent to 28,871.83 index
points on May 17, 2019 from 31,430.50 index points as at end-December 2018,
while market capitalization grew by 8.53 per cent to N12.72 trillion on May 17,
2019 from N11.72 trillion at end-December 2018. The recent growth in market
capitalization reflected new listings in the market , prominent amongst which
is: MTN and Skyway Aviation Handling Company Plc and additional listing
from the merger between Access Bank and Diamond Bank.
The Committee welcomed the continued stability at both the Bureau-de-
change (BDC) and the Investors’ and Exporters’ (I&E) windows of the foreign
exchange market, expressing optimism in the recovery of crude oil prices due
to the OPEC production ceiling and other geo -political issues affecting oil
exports.
The MPC also noted the steady accretion to external reserves, which stood at
US$45.42 billion as at May 16, 2019, an increase of 2.20 per cent from US$44.44
billion at end-April 2019.
The Overall Outlook and Risks
The overall medium term outlook for the global economy remains mixed and
uncertain with growing indications of persistent macroeconomic
vulnerabilities, global financial market fragilities, accommodative monetary
policy, policy uncertainties and weakening global output.
Data on the domestic economy suggests some fragility in output growth
during the second quarter of 2019 with improved outlook for the rest of the
year. Accordingly, revised output projections indicate that the ec onomy
would grow by 2.1 per cent according to the International Monetary Fund
(IMF), 2.2 per cent by the World Bank and 2. 38 per cent by the CBN in 2019.
This outlook is hinged on the following key factors: the e ffective
implementation of the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP);
supportive monetary policy ; enhance d flow of credit to the real sector;
sustained stability of the exchange rate; and improved fiscal buffers; amongst
others. The Committee , thus, expects that monetary policy would focus on
improving access to credit , reduc ing unemployment and stimulating
economic growth.
Committee’s Considerations
The Committee took into consideration the continued slowdown in the global
economy and the persisting uncertainties, including the ongoing trade wars
between the US and its major trade partners , financial fragilities in a number
of countries, the debt -constrained fiscal operations of most EMDEs, including
Nigeria, and the volatility in the oil market . The Committee , therefore,
enjoined the Federal government to urgently build fiscal buffers t hrough a
more realistic benchmark oil price for the Federal Budget.
The MPC noted the 2.01 per cent growth in real GDP during the first quarter of
2019 compared with 1.89 per cent in the corresponding quarter of 2018.
Although output growth in the first quarter was sl ower than 2.38 per cent
recorded in the preceding quarter, it emphasized that actual output remains
well below the economy’s long -run potential, indicating the existence of
spare capacity for non -inflationary growth in the economy, an opportunity
which sho uld be explored through increased credit delivery to the private
sector. Not impressed by the flow of credit from the D eposit Money Banks
(DMBs) to the private sector , the MPC called on the CBN management to
urgently put in place modalities to promote Consumer, and Mortgage
lending in the Nigerian economy, noting that doing this will greatly and
positively impact on the flow of credit and ultimately result in output growth.
The MPC called for a close monitoring of the uptick in inflationary pressures in
April 2019 , driven largely by food shortages during the Easter season, the
commencement of the planting season as well as persisting security
challenges in some of the food producing regions of the c ountry. The
Committee, urged the relevant authorities to strengthen efforts to address the
security challenges and improve food production. It encouraged financial
intermediating institutions to ensure that lo ans to the agricultural sector were
channelled effectively to end users.
The MPC welcomed the improvement in financial soundness indicators (FSIs),
but noted that although the Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratio moderated, it
remained above the prudential benchmark. Consequently, the Committee
considered and recommended to the CBN, a proposal to develop a
comprehensive administrative, legal and regulatory framework to speed up
the recovery of delinquent loan facilities of the banking system; involving
structured engagement with relevant stakeholders and authorities, in order to
mitigate credit risk and ultimately open up the credit delivery space in the
Nigerian economy.
The Committee extended warm felicitations in an expression of gratitude to
the President and Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces of the Federal
Republic of Nige ria, President Muhammadu Buhari , and the Senate of the
Federal Republic, respectively, for the reappointment and prompt
confirmation of the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria , Godwin I.
Emefiele, for a second 5 -year term in office. In particular, t he Committee
noted that the reappointment was in recognition of the contributions of the
CBN to maintaining macroeconomic stability and it would engender
confidence and build policy credibility and deliver stability to the Nigerian
financial markets.
In view of the abundant opportunities available to banks for unfettered
access to government securities, which tends to crowd out private sector
lending, the Committee call ed on the Bank to provide a mechanism for
limiting DMBs access to government securities so as to redirect bank’s lending
focus to the private sector, noting that this would spur the much needed
growth in the economy. It called on the Government to use all machinery at
its disposal to increase tax revenue to enable the government fund its budget
adequately.
The Committee’s Decision
The global and domestic developments have conditioned an environment of
low optimism in the macroeconomic and financial sector space, forcing
central banks to return to accommodative monetary policy.
As in the past, the Committee considered the options of whether to be more
accommodative, tighten or hold it position. The Committee felt that although
the slight inflation uptick should result in tightening, it nevertheless felt that
doing this will limit the a bility of DMBs to increase credit at this time, given the
need to support or redirect the focus of DMBs to new credit in support o f
consumer, mortgage and other priority sectors of the economy, including ,
SMEs, agriculture and manufacturing. It also felt that given the fragile state of
the economy, increasing the cost of credit would further diminish investment
flow and impact negatively on output growth.
As regards loosening, some members felt that it was desirable to aggressively
stimulate growth, restart the capital market activities and increase lending at
lower rates; which would ultimately stimulate domestic aggregate demand.
Those against loosening felt that given that there was a marginal increase in
headline inflation for April 2019, there is nee d to restrain from loosening in
order not to exacerbate inflationary pressures. They also felt the economy
would experience liquidity surfeit and without corresponding increase in real
sector output, inflationary pressures could be elevated; resulting in l ikely
exchange rate pressures.
As for members who favo ured a hold position, maintaining monetary policy
rate at its present level was essential for better understanding of the
momentum of growth before determining any possible modifications. They
also fel t that retaining the current policy stance provides an avenue for
evaluating the impact of the Bank’s intervention policies to support lending
to the priority sectors of the economy.
Consequently, the MPC decided against the backdrop of these
developments by a vote of 9 members out of 11, to hold all parameters of
monetary policy constant. Two members voted, however, to reduce the
monetary policy rate by 25 basis points.
In summary, the MPC voted to:
I. Retain the MPR at 13.50 per cent;
II. Retain the asymmetric corridor of +200/-500 basis points around the MPR;
III. Retain the CRR at 22.5 per cent; and
IV. Retain the Liquidity Ratio at 30 per cent.
Thank you.
Godwin I. Emefiele
Governor, Central Bank of Nigeria
21st May, 2019