Banxico Monetary Policy Statement - 2025-11-13
Central bank: banxico | Type: decision | Date: 2025-11-13

This document is provided for the reader’s convenience only. The translation from the official Spanish version was made by Banco de México’s
staff. Discrepancies may possibly arise between the original document in Spanish and its English translation. For this reason, the original Monetary
Policy Statement in Spanish remains the only official document.
Banco de México’s Governing Board decided to lower the target for the overnight interbank
interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.50%, effective September 26, 2025.
World economic activity is estimated to have expanded during the third quarter of 2025 at a lower rate
than in the previous quarter. Given the current trade tensions, the world economy as well as that of the
United States are still expected to decelerate this year and in 2026 wi th respect to 2024. The Federal
Reserve lowered its reference rate by 25 basis points and anticipates to implement further reductions in
the remainder of the year. In that context, US government interest rates declined overall, and those for
the short term decreased significantly. The US dollar depreciated slightly. In most of the major advanced
economies headline and core inflation showed a heterogeneous behavior. Among the most relevant global
risks are the escalating trade tensions along with the intensification of geopolitical turmoil and their
possible impact on inflation, economic activity, and volatility in financial markets.
Since the previous monetary policy decision, Mexico’s government interest rates , especially those for
longer terms, decreased. The Mexican peso appreciated. Economic activity exhibited sluggishness at the
beginning of the third quarter of 2025. The environment of uncertainty and trade tensions poses significant
downward risks.
Between July and the first fortnight of September, headline inflation increased slightly, from 3.51 to
3.74%, and core inflation registered a minor variation, from 4.23 to 4.26%. Headline inflation expectations
for the end of 2025 were revised downwards, while those for longer terms continued relatively stable at
levels above target.
Headline inflation forecasts were adjusted slightly while core inflation forecasts were revised marginally
upwards. Headline inflation is still expected to converge to the target in the third quarter of 2026 (see table).
Forecasts are subject to the following risks. On the upside: i) depreciation of the Mexican peso; ii)
disruptions due to geopolitical conflicts or foreign trade policies; iii) persistence of core inflation; iv) cost-
related pressures, and v) climate-related impacts. On the downside: i) lower-than-anticipated economic
activity; ii) a lower pass -through from increased costs, and iii) lower pressures stemming from the
appreciation of the national currency. Although the balance of risks for the trajectory of inflation within the
forecast horizon remains biased to the upside, said bias is less pronounced than that faced between
2021 and 2024. The changes in economic policy by the new US administration have added uncertainty
to the forecasts. Their effects could imply inflationary pressures on both sides of the balance.
The Governing Board deemed appropriate to continue the rate-cutting cycle. This decision was consistent
with the assessment of the current inflationary outlook. In particular, it took into account the behavior of
the exchange rate, the weakness of economic activity, and the possible impact of changes in trade
policies worldwide. It also considered the level of monetary restriction that has been implemented. Thus,
with the presence of all its members, the Board decided by majority to lower the target for the overnight
interbank interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.50%.
Looking ahead, the Board will assess further adjustments to the reference rate. It will take into account
the effects of all determinants of inflation. Actions will be implemented in such a way that the reference
rate remains consistent at all times with the trajectory needed to enable an orderly and sustained
convergence of headline inflation to the 3% target during the forecast period. The central bank reaffirms
its commitment to its primary mandate and the need to continue its efforts to consolidate an environment
of low and stable inflation.
Voting in favor of the decision were Victoria Rodríguez, Galia Borja, Gabriel Cuadra, and Omar Mejía.
Jonathan Heath voted in favor of maintaining the target for the overnight interbank interest rate at 7.75%.
1/ Forecast starting in September 2025.
2/ Forecast starting in August 2025. See monetary policy statement of August 7, 2025. Forecast presented in the Quarterly Report
April-June 2025.
3/ See methodological note on the seasonal adjustment process.
Source: INEGI for observed annual variation figures and Banco de México for seasonally adjusted figures and forecasts. Note:
Shaded areas correspond to observed figures.
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
Headline (CPI)
Current (09/25/2025) 1/ 4.5 3.7 4.2 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Previous (08/07/2025) 2/ 4.5 3.7 4.2 3.8 3.7 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Current (09/25/2025) 1/ 3.7 3.6 4.1 4.2 4.0 3.6 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Previous (08/07/2025) 2/ 3.7 3.6 4.1 4.1 3.7 3.5 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Annualized seasonally adjusted quarterly variation in percent3/
Current - Headline 1/ 3.2 2.7 5.7 3.3 3.1 2.4 3.5 2.9 3.0 2.5 3.4 2.9
Current - Core1/ 3.6 4.2 4.9 4.0 3.0 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.0 2.7 3.0 3.0
Forecasts for Headline and Core Inflation
Annual percentage change of quarterly average indices
2025 2026 2027