NBP MPC Press Release - 2016-09-07
Central bank: nbp | Type: decision | Date: 2016-09-07

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Warsaw, 7 September 2016 
Information from the meeting of the Monetary Policy 
Council held on 6-7 September 2016 
 
The Council decided to keep the NBP interest rates unchanged: 
 reference rate at 1.50%; 
 lombard rate at 2.50%; 
 deposit rate at 0.50%; 
 rediscount rate at 1.75%. 
 
Global economic growth remains moderate, but uncertainty remains about its 
outlook. In the euro area, economic growth is stable despite a negative impact of weak 
economic conditions in the non-European emerging market economies. In the United 
States, GDP growth is lower than in previous years, but recent improvement in labour 
market has eased concerns about persistent deterioration in economic conditions. Recent 
indicators point to further slowdown i n China, while in Russia recession is gradually 
receding. 
The prices of oil and many other commodities in the global markets rema in lower 
than in previous years . Along with moderate global economic activity , this is the main 
factor behind low consumer price growth in many economies. 
The European Central Bank keeps its interest rates close to zero, including the deposit 
rate below zero, and continues financial asset purchases . The US Federal Reserve – after 
a hike in December 2015 – keeps the interest rates unchanged , indicating their possible 
increase in the future. 
In Poland, GDP growth in 2016 Q2 picked up somewhat. The growth was driven 
mainly by steady increase in consumer demand, supported by gradual improvement in 
the l abour market , favourable consumer sentiment and the launch of the ”Family 500 
plus” programme. A nother factor contributing to higher GDP growth in 2016 Q2 was 
significant acceleration in exports. At the same time, GDP growth was contained by a 
decline in investment. It was related to a temporary lower EU funds absorption after the 
previous EU financial framework had expired, as well as uncertainty about the economic 
outlook. 
With the negative output gap and moderate – though increasing – nominal wage 
growth, there is no inflationary pressure in the economy . The a nnual consumer price 
growth and producer price growth remain negative. Negative price growth results from 
external factors , mainly the earlier sharp fa ll in global commodi ty prices and the low 
price growth in the environment of the Polish economy. This is accompanied by low 
inflation expectations . According to available information, t he persisting deflation has 
not adversely affected decisions taken by economic agents so far. 
 
 
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In the Council’s opinion, the annual consumer price index will remain negative in the 
coming mont hs. However, deflation will be gradually subsiding due to dissipating 
effects of low commodity prices in the global markets . In the coming quarters, higher 
price growth will be supported by stable GDP growth, amid acceleration in wage growth 
and higher child benefits . Investment should also rise, which will be supported by a 
gradual increase in EU funds absorption, good financial standing of enterprises and 
growing capacity utilisation of firms. The sources of uncertainty for expected economic 
activity and price developments are risks of a deterioration in the global economy and of 
a fall in commodity prices. 
The Council confirms its assessment that – given the available data and forecasts – the 
current level of interest rates is conducive to keeping the Polish economy on the 
sustainable growth path and maintaining macroeconomic balance. 
The Council adopted Monetary Policy Guidelines for 2017.