Abstract:
A business method and system for executing the method that involves gathering merchandise orders at a show in the home of a hostess. The method compiles the merchandise orders while maintaining a relationship between each individual order and information pertaining to the guest making the order. The guest information maintains an association with the order throughout the method such that each order made at the show may be individually packaged and labeled, obviating the need for the hostess to sort the ordered items upon receiving them from a warehouse. The system stores records of all purchased items and maintains a running inventory of each item, accessible by the consultants so they may warn customers of potentially low inventories. The database also facilitates returns and exchanges of purchased items.

Description:
CROSS REFERENCE TO RELATED APPLICATIONS 
     This invention is related to and claims priority from U.S. provisional application Ser. No. 60/592,673 filed on Jul. 30, 2004 entitled Method of Controlling Product Inventory, which is incorporated herein by reference. Also incorporated by reference is U.S. patent Ser. No. 11/057,540, filed Feb. 14, 2005, entitled Single Order Method for Independent Sales Representatives. 
    
    
     BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 
     The traditional retail market is one of the oldest, and yet still most prevalent, business models for selling goods. One popular alternative to traditional retail shopping is the “party plan” direct marketing method of selling products. The party plan was made well known by the Tupperware® Corporation. Rather than buying the Tupperware® products from a retail store, groups of potential customers, usually women, get invited to a “show” or “party” (hereinafter a “show”) at a host&#39;s home. The show is led by an independent sales consultant who showcases the products, enticing the partygoers into ordering the wares. 
     At the conclusion of the party, the consultant takes the orders and submits them to the company to be filled. Typically, the hostess maintains copies of all of the items ordered by the various customers. The consultant simply enters a “grand total” of the items ordered, including the hostess name and address, and sends the order to a factory or warehouse where the order is filled. The items are packed into a box and shipped to the hostess&#39;s house to save on shipping. Upon receiving the shipment, it is the hostess&#39;s responsibility to refer to the order forms and compile the individual orders from the shipment received: This step can take hours. The hostess will then notify each of the guests that ordered items that their newly purchased items may be picked up at the hostess&#39;s house. 
     After the items are received by the guests, if there are any returns to be made, the responsibility typically falls on the hostess to receive the item back from the guest and send it to the manufacturer, receive the exchange or credit, and pass the exchange or credit back to the guest. In consideration for hosting the party, the hostess is usually given a gift or a discount on one or more items of her order, based on the amount of merchandise sold during her show. 
     The party plan marketing model has expanded significantly to include products other than kitchen wares. Popular direct marketing companies have been established for baskets, candles, cosmetics and clothing. Clothing orders can be particularly burdensome on a hostess using the present model for several reasons. 
     First, in a given line of clothing there are usually a few items that are more popular so many of the guests will order this item. Often, the item comes in multiple sizes and colors. Thus, when the shipment arrives to the hostess&#39;s house, the task of compiling the various orders becomes even more difficult because the hostess has to ensure that each order receives not only the correct items, but the correct sizes and colors of each item. 
     Second, because each of the items requires sorting by the hostess, this puts the hostess in the undesirable position where she must decide whether she has the time and energy to organize and individually inspect each of the items to avoid having unsatisfied customers. Performing this task for numerous customers may lead to a decision not to host subsequent shows. 
     Third, clothing items tend to be returned more often than other types of purchases. Getting an item home and trying it on in a familiar environment, or even just in a different mood, can cause a buyer to regret a purchase. As described above, returns must be made by the hostess because only the hostess is in the manufacturer&#39;s database. 
     Fourth, many direct sales clothing companies require the sales consultant to act as the hostess due to the logistics of moving the large quantity of clothes typically shown at a show. Thus, typical direct clothing companies require their consultants to sign up for a block of time, usually two weeks, during which they take possession of the sample wardrobe. This sample wardrobe is of considerable size. The consultant receives the wardrobe and turns her house into a retail environment where she showcases the clothes constantly for two weeks. Rather than having parties or shows, she invites as many people as possible to stop by anytime during her possession of the wardrobe to try on and hopefully order clothes. After her block of time has elapsed, she packs up the sample wardrobe and sends it on to another consultant. The time during which she is in possession of the wardrobe is a time of considerable inconvenience to her family. 
     Fifth, most direct sales clothing consultants do not have access to company inventory data. If an item is sold out, the consultant is unable to warn a party guest before the guest places an order. The guest learns that her order was not filled when the shipment arrives at the hostess&#39;s house. This is disappointing for the guest, embarrassing for the hostess, and reflects poorly on the company. 
     The advent of the internet has given rise to other forms of direct marketing including online auctions, flea markets, and direct access to manufacturers. Web-based shopping has not obviated the “party plan,” however. Many shoppers find there is no substitute for physically handling and examining an item while deciding whether to make a purchase. Women&#39;s clothing is an example of a product type where this is especially true. Most women will agree that seeing an outfit on a glamorous model in a picture on a website provides little comfort that they will like the way the outfit looks on them. A “party plan” marketing method has this major advantage over internet shopping as a business model for women&#39;s fashion. The internet, however, provides undeniable flexibility and management tools. Orders can be taken, reviewed, and tracked instantly. Nonetheless, few party-oriented direct sales methods utilize the versatility and convenience availed by the internet. 
     There is a need for a web-based business model that incorporates the advantages provided by the internet with the “party plan” direct marketing model. More specifically, there is a need for a web-based program that assists the hostess of a party in taking and placing orders. There is a further need for such a program that tracks information related to each customer and allows the customers to make returns and exchanges directly with the manufacturer. There is also a need for a web-based program that controls product inventory and provides a consultant with specific inventory-related data. 
     BRIEF SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION 
     The present invention fills the aforementioned needs by providing a web-based system for assisting an entrepreneur, such as an independent sales representative, in tracking and managing sales and benefits generated in a sales party environment. The present invention also assists the hostess of a party as it makes individually wrapped packages possible. 
     One aspect of the present invention provides a method for making sales transactions initiated at a show in the home of a hostess. The method includes gathering information about the hostess and the guests, including her address, and customer data such as name, address, and payment information. After the show, the information is entered into a database and sent to a warehouse via the internet. Because the customer data is also received, the warehouse is able to place the individual orders for each guest together in a package, and then ship a box or boxes containing the various packages to the hostess. The packages arrive neat and presentable. The hostess needs do no more than notify her guests that their packages have arrived so that the guests may pick up the packages from the hostess. 
     Another aspect of the invention provides a system for executing the aforementioned method. The system includes a consultant computer in data communication with a database. A server at warehouse holding the goods for sale is also in data communication with the database. The server is configured to perform the steps of receiving hostess information, guest information and customer orders. Next the server generates a show code based on the hostess information. The server then calculates billing totals, factoring in any discounts that may apply, and generates order forms for use at the warehouse in assembling the orders. 
     In another aspect of the present invention, the system tracks the nationwide or worldwide sales orders and compares the order for each item against a present and planned inventory. The consultants then have the ability to access the database to determine which items are in demand and at risk of selling out. The consultant can then convey this information to the guests of a party to allow them the immediate option of making alternative selections or preparing them for a potential delay. 
     In yet another aspect of the present invention, the system includes an automated return and exchange process that allows a consultant to generate shipping labels for those guests that have items they would like to return or exchange for other items. 
    
    
     
       BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS 
         FIG. 1  is a schematic of the structure of the business model of the present invention; 
         FIG. 2  is a chart of the business method of the present invention; 
         FIGS. 3-4  are menu screens of the present invention; 
         FIG. 5  is a customer order form of the present invention; 
         FIGS. 5-12  are menu screens of the present invention; 
         FIG. 13  is a schematic of the structure of the inventory system of the present invention; 
         FIGS. 14-26  are menu screens of the present invention; 
         FIG. 27  is a flow chart of an aspect of the inventory management process of the present invention; and, 
         FIGS. 28-29  are examples of electronic letters sent to customers making returns or exchanges. 
     
    
    
     DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION 
     Referring now to the figures, and first to  FIG. 1 , there is shown a basic schematic diagram of the structure  10  of the business method of the present invention. The structure  10  includes a hostess home  12  where the show is to be held. The structure also includes a computer  14  having access to a network  16  in data communication with a database  18 . The database  18  stores data on a computer readable medium and may or may not be located within a manufacturing site or warehouse  19 . A server  20  is located at the warehouse  19  and is capable of generating orders based on the information stored in the database  18 . Preferably, a printer or other form of interface  21  is in data flow communication with the server  20 . The interface  21  is capable of producing order forms  22  containing the information generated by the computer  20 . In the warehouse  19 , the orders are taken and assembled into packages  24 , which are then placed in a box  26  and shipped back to the hostess&#39;s home  12 . One skilled in the art will realize that the server  20  could be stored at any location accessible by the network  16 . For example, the server  20  could be located at a corporate headquarters  23  ( FIG. 13 ). 
     The computer  14  may be any computational device capable of receiving information and sending it to a remote location via the network  16 . Typically, the computer  14  will be a personal computer or laptop owned by the consultant. However, the computer  14  is basically a communications device and could be embodied as a handheld digital device, cellular telephone, or any telecommunications device capable of data transfer. Alternatively, the computer  14  could be the combination of a standard telephone and a computer-automated answering service. 
     The network  16  is likely the internet for purposes of convenience. However, an intranet, satellite link, or any other form of data communications link would be acceptable. 
     The database  18  is connected to the network  16  and has the capability of storing information on a computer readable medium. The database  18  may or may not be located within the warehouse  19 . For example, the database  18  may be memory on a server at any location. 
     The computer  20  is preferably contained within the warehouse  19  and is in data communication with the network  16 . The computer  20  is capable of manipulating data stored in the database  18  and generating order forms  22  and sending them to the interface  21 . 
     The interface  21  is any form of output device capable of converting the information received from the computer  20  into a format readable by a means for assembling the merchandise on a given order  22 . This means is typically a human worker and thus, the interface  21  would be a printer that generates printed order forms  22 . Alternatively, the orders  22  could by assembled via automated machinery. In this case, the interface  21  may generate bar codes. In yet another embodiment, the interface may be a network, wireless or otherwise, that allows the computer  20  to communicate directly with automated machinery. In this case, a printer would be necessary to generate labels for the packages  24  and mailing labels for the boxes  26 . 
       FIG. 2  outlines the general steps of the method  30  of the present invention. Each of these steps will be discussed in greater detail below and integrated with the aforementioned structure  10 . 
     The method  30  begins with the selection of a hostess at  40 . Hostess information is then entered into the database  18  and a show code is generated, thus establishing the show at  60 . The show is then held at  80  where orders are taken for merchandise. The orders are sent to the warehouse  19  at  100  and are filled at  120 . The merchandise is shipped back to the hostess&#39;s house where it is distributed to the guests who ordered the merchandise. Each of the steps will now be explained in greater detail. 
     Beginning with step  40 , the hostess is chosen by the consultant. Quite often, a hostess will volunteer at a prior show to be the hostess of a future show. The hostess of the prior show will then be considered a “referring hostess” and will receive a discount if she attends the show at the hostess&#39;s house  12 . The consultant and the hostess agree on a show date. Prior to the show date, the consultant may provide advice to the hostess in order to ensure a lucrative show. For example, the consultant may provide materials such as tip sheets, invitations, order guides, order forms, thank you cards, and the like. 
     Step  60  is completed by gathering information about the hostess and entering the information into the client  14  and sending it to the database  18  via the network  16 . This information includes, at a minimum, the hostess&#39;s name. The show is then assigned a code. The show code will be used as a reference for the individual customer orders made at the show. 
       FIG. 3  shows a menu screen  62  the consultant will see upon logging in to the program via the network  16 . Under the heading “Information Services” the option “Create a Show”  64  is selected. Doing so causes the menu screen  66  shown in  FIG. 4  to appear. Here the consultant fills in a hostess  1 D number field  68  if the hostess has been established as a customer in the database  18  at a previous show. If not, the consultant enters the hostess&#39;s name in the hostess name field  70  and the hostess phone number in the phone number field  72 . There may also be a field for hostess address. Alternatively, the hostess address will be entered from an order form filled in at the party. 
     At step  80 , the show is held at the home of the hostess. The consultant brings a sample line of clothing to the hostess&#39;s home. Rather than leasing the sample line for a period of time, the consultant purchases the sample line from the company at or slightly below the cost to the company. In order to ensure their consultants are not simply becoming consultants to buy clothes at significantly reduced prices, the sample line includes a variety of sizes and is a set sample line package for all consultants. The consultants are not able to assemble a sample line of their own by ordering individual items at or below cost. 
     Furthermore, each consultant must meet several requirements. First, the consultant must purchase a new sample line each season (e.g. spring and fall). Second, each consultant must present their sample lines at a minimum number of shows per season (e.g. two shows per month). Third, each consultant must generate a minimum amount of gross sales per month (e.g. $10,000 per month during each season). 
     Understanding that, after a season is over, each consultant now owns a considerable number of clothing items in various sizes, each consultant is allowed to sell items from her sample line. This way, she is able to recoup some of the costs she has incurred. 
     During the show, the consultant will introduce her sample line of merchandise and allow the guests to examine the same. Clothing items may be tried on by the guests. At the end of the show, order forms from the guests are received.  FIG. 5  provides an example order form  82 . These order forms include certain data fields such as the show code  84 , the guest name  86 , the guest address  88 , the guest&#39;s order  90  of one or more merchandise items, and the payment account  92 . Typically the payment account will consist of a credit card number and expiration date. 
     The order form  82  may also include data fields such as show date  93 , hostess name  94 , guest e-mail address  95 , guest phone number  96 , and consultant information  97 . An interest field  98  may also be included giving the guest the option to express interest in hosting a future show or becoming a consultant. 
     At step  100 , the consultant gathers the order forms  82  from the show, leaving copies with the hostess, and enters the information therefrom into her computer  14 . She does so by first selecting the “Update a Show” option  102  from the menu in  FIG. 3 . Doing so causes the menu  104  of  FIG. 6  to appear. Here, she enters the show code established at  60 . Once the show code is entered, the menu  106  shown in  FIG. 7  appears. Here, historical facts are collected related to the show. Data pertaining to each individual guest attending the show is entered. Specifically, the guest ID number is entered in field  108  if the guest has an established ID number from a previous show. If not, the guest&#39;s name is entered into the name field  110 , and her phone number is entered into the phone number field  112 . The program should fill in the show number automatically into the show number field  114 . 
     After the guest is entered into menu  106 , “Enter Guest Order”  103  is selected from menu  62  ( FIG. 3 ) and the order menu  116 , shown in  FIG. 8 , will appear giving the entire line of products. The consultant carefully adds the correct quantities and sizes to the guest&#39;s cart from the guest&#39;s order form  82 . The order menu  116  shows a submenu  118  listing all of the supplies a consultant might want to order and provide a future hostess. However, similar submenus  118  are made available from each of the various product lines shown in the product line submenu  119 . This process is repeated for each guest, first entering the guest into the menu  106  and then the guest&#39;s order into the order menu  116 . Once the guests are all entered, the hostess information is entered. Instead of selecting “Enter Guest Order”  103  from menu  62 , “Enter Hostess Order”  105  is selected and menu  107  appears ( FIG. 9 ). This menu reminds the consultant that all of the other guest orders should have been entered first. The hostess&#39;s order is entered just like the other guest orders. In the event that a referring hostess attended the show, her order is entered last so that a discount may be calculated based upon the total sales of the show. The consultant thus selects “Referring Hostess Information”  109  from the menu  62  and the menu screen  111  of  FIG. 10  appears. The referring hostess necessarily has a customer ID so that is entered, identifying her as a referring hostess. 
     After the consultant has entered all of the information and orders from all of the guests, and she is confident the information entered is accurate, she closes the show. Closing the show entails selecting  113  from menu  62  causing the menu screen  115  ( FIG. 11 ) to appear. Closing the show finalizes the orders and sends the information via the network  16  ( FIG. 1 ) to the database  18 . Upon closing the show, a summary screen  117  ( FIG. 12 ) appears, showing all of the customers and their orders for that show. 
     At step  120  the process of filling the orders begins by accessing the database  18  using the server  20  and retrieving data from a closed show. The data is processed by the computer  20  and sent to the interface  21  for conversion into order forms  22 . Preferably, each of the order forms  22  is retrieved by a worker who manually fills each order. Filling the order is accomplished by hand selecting each item on the order and individually wrapping the clothing items in a professional manner. The individual items for a given order are then bundled together and wrapped to form a package  24 . Preferably, the order form  22  is taped to the package for identification purposes. Each of the packages  24  for that show are placed together in a box  26  and shipped to the hostess address. The hostess then notifies each of the guests that their packages  24  have arrived and are ready for pickup. 
     Inevitably, the demand for some items on a nationwide scale will be greater than the demand for others. In order to prevent a potentially embarrassing and inconvenient situation whereby a consultant takes a number of orders for items that are sold out, the present invention  10  includes an inventory management system that allows the consultant to access data related to sold out items, items that are in danger of becoming sold out, and expected supply dates for items that are in production. 
     Referring to  FIG. 13 , there is shown a diagrammatic representation of the system  10  of the present invention including a corporate headquarters  23  in addition to a warehouse or package assembly location  19 . For purposes of tracking and updating product inventory, the corporate headquarters  23  provides input to the server  20  via the network  16  related to planned production levels. The server  20  can use this information to calculate the likelihood that an item will sell out soon and to provide to the consultant a status for each item, namely, a date when a sold out item is expected to be in stock, or an indication that a sold out item will no longer be produced. 
     The system  10  is also designed to effectuate easy access to inventory data as well as the processing of returns and exchanges. Because individual customer data is stored in the database  18 , returns and exchanges can be processed for each individual customer from a remote location. 
     For example,  FIGS. 14-24  provide online menus used to process a return or exchange of merchandise. At  FIG. 14 , a consultant logged into the system selects menu item  121 , “Returns and Exchanges”. This selection causes the menu  122  in  FIG. 15  to open. The consultant selects option  124 , “Return” or  126 , “Exchange” as appropriate. The consultant also enters the customer&#39;s order number in field  128  and hits the “Continue” button  130 . 
     If the consultant selected option  124 , “Return” the consultant will next see the page  131  shown in  FIG. 16 . Included is a list  132  of the customer&#39;s purchased items  134 . The consultant will check a box  136  next to the item  134  to be returned, and hit the “Continue” button  138  at the bottom of the page  131 . 
     The next page  140  to appear is shown in  FIG. 17 . The item  134  selected to be returned is shown with a menu  142  providing various fields  144 - 150  that allow the consultant to list a reason for the return, a condition of the returned item, and a location of the damage on the item, if any. Also, a quantity field is provided if the customer purchased more than one of the item. Field  146 , “Return Condition” provides a pulldown menu with “Good and unused” as an option. Selecting this option indicates that the item is in new condition and may be resold. Thus, when selected, the server  20  adds the quantity from field  150  back into a running inventory for that merchandise item. Upon filling in the fields  144 - 150 , the consultant hits a “Continue” button  152  and is taken to the next page  154  ( FIG. 18 ). 
     Page  154  summarizes the transaction and provides a confirmation number  158 . The page  154  also provides an option  160  to print the page as a hard copy record of the return. The consultant will select this option  160  and the page  156  will be printed. The printed copy will be sent to the customer. Additionally, a popup screen  162  ( FIG. 19 ) will appear. This screen  162  shows the printing label to be used to send the returned merchandise item  134  back to the warehouse  19 . The screen  162  includes a print command  164  to effectuate printing. The consultant prints this mailing label and sends it to the costumer, either electronically or via standard mail, along with the printed copy of the transaction record from  FIG. 18 .  FIG. 28  provides an example of an electronic letter  210  that includes a link  212  that allows a customer to print out a mailing label. 
       FIGS. 20-24  depict the menus encountered when processing an exchange. In  FIG. 20 , menu  122  is shown, the same menu shown in  FIG. 15 . This time, however, the exchange option  126  is selected, rather than the return option  124 . Again, the customer order number is placed in the field  128  and clicks on the “Continue” button  130 . 
     Next, the menu screen  166  appears as shown in  FIG. 21 . This screen  166  includes a list  132  of the customer&#39;s purchased items  134 . The consultant will check a box  136  next to the item  134  to be returned, and hit the “Continue” button  138  at the bottom of the page  131 . 
     The next page  168  to appear is shown in  FIG. 22 . The item  134  selected to be returned is shown with a menu  170  providing various fields  172 - 182  that allow the consultant to list a reason for the exchange, a condition of the exchanged item, and a location of the damage on the item, if any. Also, a quantity field is provided if the customer purchased more than one of the item. Fields  180  and  182  pertain to the item to be sent to the customer in exchange for the originally purchased items. Field  180  allows a color selection for the new item and field  182  allows a size selection for the new item. 
     Field  174 , “Exchange Condition” provides a pulldown menu with “Good and unused” as an option. Selecting this option indicates that the item is in new condition and may be resold. Thus, when selected, the server  20  adds the returned item to the running inventory and subtracts the item to be shipped to the customer from the running inventory by the quantity from field  150 . Upon filling in the fields  172 - 182 , the consultant hits a “Continue” button  184  and is taken to the next page  186  ( FIG. 23 ). 
     Page  186  summarizes the transaction and provides a confirmation number  188 . The page  186  also provides an option  190  to print the page as a hard copy record of the return. The consultant will select this option  190  and the page  186  will be printed. The printed copy will be sent to the customer. Additionally, a popup screen  192  ( FIG. 24 ) will appear. This screen  192  shows the printing label to be used to send the returned merchandise item  134  back to the warehouse  19 . The screen  192  includes a print command  194  to effectuate printing. The consultant prints this mailing label and sends it to the costumer, either electronically or via standard mail, along with the printed copy of the transaction record from  FIG. 18 .  FIG. 29  provides an example of an electronic letter  214  that includes a link  216  that allows a customer to print out a mailing label. 
     Referring now to  FIG. 25 , if a consultant would like to check the running inventory of one or more items, option  196 , “Back Order/Watch List” is selected from the maintenance menu. Doing so brings the consultant to the screen  198  depicted in  FIG. 26 . This screen  198  provides the running inventory data for all of the merchandise items. The screen  198  includes columns for Item Code  200 , Item Name  202 , and an “Expected in Stock” date  204 . 
     Determination as to whether an item appears on a watch list can be made in a variety of ways. For example, one aspect of the present invention provides a threshold inventory level for each item. The threshold level is a strategic business decision made at the corporate headquarters  23 . The threshold level may be different for each item. Once the running inventory for each item passes below the threshold level, that item appears on the Watch list. A decision maker at headquarter  23  then makes a determination as to which items on the watch list will be restocked and which will be discontinued. 
     Another aspect of the invention provides an algorithm approach to determine which items will appear on a watch list.  FIG. 27  shows an algorithm  300  whereby a running inventory RI is compared to a threshold T at  302 . The comparison is continually made until the running inventory RI is at or below the threshold level T, at which time the item is placed on the watch list at  304 . 
     While on the watch list, a determination is made at  306  whether to reorder the item. A discussion is provided below concerning the factors taken into account in making this determination. If at  306  it is decided that the item will not be reordered, the status of the item is set to LOW at  308 . Next, at  310 , the running inventory is continually monitored and compared to a value of zero. If the running inventory drops to zero, the status for the item is changed to OUT at  312 . 
     If at  306  a termination is made to reorder the item, or a reorder has already been placed, at  314  the status of the item is set to L-[date] where [date] is the expected shipment arrival date, that is, the date the reordered merchandise is expected to appear in inventory. 
     At  316 , the running inventory RI is continually monitored and compared to a value of zero. If the running inventory RI equals zero, the status is set to B-[date] at  318 , indicating that the item is on backorder and expected to be in stock on [date]. 
     As mentioned above, one aspect of the present invention involves making the decision whether to reorder a quantity of a particular merchandise item. This is the decision made at  306  of  FIG. 27 . This may be accomplished by a particular individual taking into account factors such as: the current running inventory RI of the item; the estimated rate of sales for that item; the actual rate of sales experienced from a predetermined start date (typically the first day of a sales “season,” where the season is a period of time during which a particular line of clothing is being offered for sale); the manufacturers lead time; the quantity on reorder; and the quantity on reorder in conjunction with a particular delivery date. 
     The current running inventory RI is the real-time inventory of a particular merchandise item at a given time, as discussed above. 
     The estimated sales rate for a particular item is the number of orders received per unit time. For example, if a sales season is three months long, an estimated sales rate for a particular item might be 2000 units per month. 
     The actual sales rate for a particular item is observed at some time mid-season and is used to adjust the estimated sales rate. Thus, if the projected sales rate for an item was 2000 units per month, and 3000 units were initially ordered (representing one half of the projected total sales for that item during the season), but 2000 items were sold during the first two weeks of the season, the actual sales rate is double the estimated sales rate. Thus, it will likely be decided to make a reorder of that item before the running inventory RI dips below the watch list threshold. 
     Manufacturers lead time is the amount of time it takes the manufacturer to fill and ship an order. One additional factor that must be considered when estimating the manufacturers lead time is the amount of raw material the manufacturer has on hand. If the reorder amount is high, it becomes more likely that the manufacturer will have to order more raw materials to fill the reorder. Because it is undesirable to acquire additional merchandise items late in the season, a long lead time may weigh in favor of not submitting a reorder. 
     As to the last two factors, it is not uncommon for a plurality of reorders to be made for a particular merchandise item. At the beginning of a season, an initial quantity of items is ordered. This quantity is typically about half of what the projected sales are for each item. This is done to prevent unwanted inventory at the end of a season. Each time a reorder is made, an expected shipping date is assigned to that reorder quantity. Each reorder quantity having a particular date is considered a “cut.” Even if a reorder quantity is small, if several other cuts are already on order for a particular item, the likelihood that the manufacturer may run out of materials increases. Thus, the lead time may be extended. 
     Though these aforementioned factors are presently considered by an individual making the reorder decisions, it is considered within the scope of the present invention to develop a software program that makes these decisions automatically. For example, each factor could be given a positive or negative value depending on whether the occurrence weighs in favor or against submitting a reorder. Some factors could be given more weight than others. The values could be added together and a determination would be made based on whether the resulting sum is positive or negative. 
     Other factors may change the flow of the chart shown in  FIG. 27 . For example, even if an item has a status of OUT, a manufacturer may unexpectedly acquire additional raw material and be able to deliver a cut earlier than expected. This may change the reorder decision. 
     Additionally, as discussed above, the running inventory RI is affected in real time by returns and exchanges. Thus, an inventory item may jump from OUT to LOW or on and off the watch list altogether, when items are returned and repurchased. 
     Although the invention has been described in terms of particular embodiments and applications, one of ordinary skill in the art, in light of this teaching, can generate additional embodiments and modifications without departing from the spirit of or exceeding the scope of the claimed invention. Accordingly, it is to be understood that the drawings and descriptions herein are proffered by way of example to facilitate comprehension of the invention and should not be construed to limit the scope thereof.