Abstract:
Examples of systems and methods for wagering on an individual are disclosed. In one example according to aspects of the present disclosure, a method for wagering on an individual includes: receiving, by a computer system, a plurality of metrics related to a popularity profile of the individual, wherein at least one metric of the plurality of metrics is based on sentiment analysis, determining, by the computer system, an initial value for each metric related to the popularity profile of the individual, generating, by the computer system, a wager metric of a particular metric related to the popularity profile of the individual based on a transaction request, and predicting, by the computer system, a future value of the particular metric based on the initial value of the particular metric and the wager metric.

Description:
CROSS-REFERENCES TO RELATED APPLICATIONS 
       [0001]    This application is a continuation of U.S. application Ser. No. 14/819,805 filed Aug. 6, 2015, which is a continuation of U.S. application Ser. No. 12/927,030 filed Nov. 5, 2010, now U.S. Pat. No. 9,122,749, which is incorporated herein by reference and which claims the benefit of U.S. Provisional Patent Application No. 61/280,244, filed Nov. 2, 2009. U.S. application Ser. No. 12/927,030 is a continuation-in-part of U.S. patent application Ser. No. 12/322,625 filed Feb. 4, 2009, now U.S. Pat. No. 9,323,836, which claims the benefit of U.S. Provisional Patent Application No. 61/065,284 filed Feb. 11, 2008, which are incorporated herein by reference. 
     
    
     BACKGROUND OF THE DISCLOSURE 
     1. Field of the Disclosure 
       [0002]    This disclosure relates generally to the field of applications for Internet based websites. Moreover, it pertains specifically to a system and method for wagering on an individual. In the preferred embodiment, system participants use an electronic exchange to place wagers related to the popularity profile of an individual. 
       2. Description of Related Art 
       [0003]    Existing internet based wagering systems typically provide tools to facilitate a wager made between two or more parties, while providing little or no guidance as to the wager amount or the terms of the wager, except where the odds of a wager are predetermined and otherwise easily calculated (e.g. betting games such as poker and craps). Them is a lack of innovation in the related art regarding the automated determination of a wager amount or the payout of a wager for events related to individuals and their creased content. 
         [0004]    Existing systems that facilitate the wagering associated with an individual or an individual&#39;s created content generally rely on predetermined heuristics and the characteristics from prior or pending wagers to determine wager payouts. As with other systems, the wager payouts associated with such wagering suffer from significant inefficiencies where the volume of wagers or the quality and variety of information about the object of the wagers are insufficient to effectively determine a wager payout amount. As such, it is an object of the present disclosure to provide an Internet based system and method that overcomes these deficiencies by relying in part on a popularity profile of an individual to determine in an automated manner a more optimal payout of a wager. 
       SUMMARY 
       [0005]    In view of the limitations now present in the prior art, the present disclosure provides a new and useful Internet based system and method for wagering on an individual, which is simpler in use, more universally functional and more versatile in operation than known applications of this kind. It is also a purpose of the present disclosure to provide a new Internet, based system and method for wagering on an individual which has many novel features not offered by the prior art applications that result in a new Internet based system and method for wagering on an individual which is not apparent, obvious, or suggested, either directly or indirectly by any of the prior art applications. 
         [0006]    One example of an individual is an artist. Artists may include musicians, writers and book authors, filmmakers, graphic artists and painters, actors, entertainers and other creators of art and media content. While the preferred embodiment focuses on music artists, it is to be understood that the present disclosure may embody individuals of other content and, as such, references to an individual described herein may be substituted with other created content. 
         [0007]    The goal of present disclosure disclosed herein, otherwise referred to as “The Wagering System,” is to provide an electronic exchange whereby a participant can make a wager based on one or more metrics related to an individual or an individual&#39;s popularity profile. A wager refers to a bet on a future outcome of a metric related to an individual. The outcome of a wager in the Wagering System is determined by the value of a metric or plurality of metrics related to an individual at a future date. This metric or plurality of metrics is based, at least in a part, on data related to an individual&#39;s popularity profile provided by a Popularity Profiling System as described in U.S. patent application Ser. No. 12/322,625. Such data may include a score or set of scores. An example of a metric related to a popularity profile is a score and the success of a wager on that metric would depend on the outcome of the score at a future time. 
         [0008]    In one embodiment, a wager may be made by a participant at no cost and the participant risks no currency while earning points or other virtual currency if the wager is won. In the preferred embodiment, a wager consists of some amount of virtual currency that is placed at risk of loss by the participant if the actual outcome of the metric or plurality of metrics does not match the outcome expected by the wager. If the actual and expected outcomes match, or the wager is otherwise deemed successful, the participant who placed the wager earns points or other virtual currency. 
         [0009]    In the preferred embodiment, The Wagering System provides the capability to incorporate widgets, and badges on participants&#39; and individuals&#39; websites (including their MySpace page, Facebook page and the like), allowing them to interact with the Wagering System and/or display their winnings, and/or other measures of performance related to the Wagering System. A participant, can make a wager using a widget such as an iPhone application, an Android operating system based application, or another rich Internet application. Also, a participant can display the participant&#39;s wager winnings and/or other measures of performance through a widget. 
         [0010]    In the preferred embodiment, the present disclosure also embodies a system and method for conducting and hosting a variety of Internet based contests through a website or a widget that will allow participants to compete against each other with respect to the amount of their virtual currency or the status of wager, goal, rank, vote, popularity metric or other type of metric using the present disclosure disclosed herein as the Wagering System. 
         [0011]    In the preferred embodiment, the present disclosure further embodies a system and method for maintaining and displaying a list of participants via a website or a widget that will show participants in ranked order or categorize participants into groups using in one or more metrics related to virtual currency, wagering, and voting. 
     
    
     
       BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF DRAWINGS 
         [0012]      FIG. 1  is a diagram illustrating the server/client network relationship of the Wagering System server, Popularity Profiling System server, information server(s) and client(s). 
           [0013]      FIG. 2  is a diagram of the Wagering System in the preferred embodiment. 
           [0014]      FIG. 3  is a diagram of the process for placing and evaluating a wager. 
       
    
    
     DETAILED DESCRIPTION 
       [0015]    Although the following detailed description contains many specifics for the purposes of illustration, anyone of ordinary skill in the art will appreciate that many variations and alterations to the following details are within the scope of the invention. Accordingly, the following embodiments of the invention are set forth without any loss of generality to, and without imposing limitations upon, the claimed invention. 
         [0016]      FIG. 1  illustrates a computing environment in which preferred embodiments are implemented. The computing environment  100  includes at least the Wagering System server  101 , at least one client computer  102 , the Popularity Profiling System (PPS) Server  103 , and, optionally, one or more information servers represented by  103 , wherein systems  101 ,  102 ,  103  and  104  communicate over the Internet  105  and each operate on separate distinct physical computers (they share no computing resources) associated with a unique IP address. The Computer software operating within this environment  100  may employ software and methods of application, including various pieces of computer code, including, but not limited to XML, JSON, SOAP, PHP, Java, Javascript, Flash, DHTML, HTML, RSS, VML, Perl, Python, Scala, Objective-C, C# and C/C++. 
         [0017]    All systems  101 ,  102 ,  103  and  104  communicate using a document transfer protocol such as Hyperext Transfer Protocol, (HTTP) or any other document transfer protocol known in the art, such as FTP, Gopher, WAIS, XMLP, etc. The client computer  102  may include a browser program, such as an HTML browser, capable of submitting requests using the HTTP protocol in a manner known in the art. In the preferred embodiment, if the client  102  requests the uniform resource locator (URL) for the Wagering System Server  101 , then the Wagering System Server  101  would return an HTML page, or any other document based on protocols known in the art, in which the user at the client may utilize within a web browser. Alternatively, the client  102  may include software capable of rendering a graphical user interface based program such as a rich Internet application (RIA) that interacts with the Wagering System Server  101 , whether directly or through another application. RIAs include applications written using HTML5, AJAX, JavaFX, Microsoft Silverlight. Abode Flex, and Adode AIR. It is understood that RIAs and web browsers may operate on personal computers and well as mobile computers and smart phones, including the iPhone and devices incorporating Google&#39;s Android operating system. 
         [0018]      FIG. 2  illustrates the Wagering System  200 . The Wagering System  200  includes at least an Electronic Exchange  210  and, in the preferred embodiment, includes a Widget Server  220 , a Web Server  230 , and a Prediction Engine  240 . In other embodiments, the Wagering System  200  may not include a Widget Server  220  if no widgets will be utilized by client computers  102 , or it may not include a Web Server  230  if no web browsers will be utilized by client computers  102 . 
         [0019]    The Web Server  230  may be represented by one or more web servers locally attached to the Electronic Exchange  210 , including being incorporated into the same server, and/or one or more web servers located remotely that utilize the Electronic Exchange  210 , whether accessed directly or through intermediary computers. Likewise, the Widget Server  220  may be represented by one or more widget servers locally attached to the Electronic Exchange  210 , including being incorporated into the same server, and/or one or more widget servers located remotely that utilize the Electronic Exchange  210 , whether accessed directly or through intermediary computers. The Database  400  may be a dedicated database for the Wagering System  200  and the Prediction Engine  240  or one shared with other applications. The Wagering System  200  may be used with or without the Prediction Engine  240 . In the preferred embodiment, the Wagering System includes the Prediction Engine  240 . 
       1. Electronic Exchange  210   
       [0020]    The Electronic Exchange  210  processes wagers on behalf of participants of the Wagering System  200 . In the preferred embodiment, the Electronic Exchange  210  allows a participant to make a wager to predict the future outcome of one or more metrics related to an artist. The metric or plurality of metrics include at least one metric that is a part of, or based upon, an artist&#39;s popularity profile provided by a Popularity Profiling System as discussed in U.S. patent application Ser. No. 12/322,625. 
         [0021]    In the preferred embodiment, the popularity profile of an artist includes one or more scores. Examples of the one or more scores, or their equivalents, include, but are not limited to, Fan Score (based on the number of fans of the artist), Play Score (based on number of plays and downloads of songs for the artist), Conversation Score (based on the number of comments, reviews and blog posts related to the artist), Radio Score (based on number of broadcast and on line radio song plays of the artist), Concert Score (based on the number and type of upcoming shows for the artist, ticket sales of pending shows, and the attendance at prior shows), Social Score (based on number of people who recommend the artist or list the artist as a favorite), Music Sales Score (based on online and retail store sales of music related to the artist), Video Score (based on number of video plays related to the artist), Sentiment Score (based on sentiments expressed by consumers, fans and critics toward the artist), Hotness Score (based on the market momentum of the artist) and Brand Score (an aggregate score based on the above scores). 
         [0022]    In the preferred embodiment, the Electronic Exchange  210  processes transactions using a virtual currency. A virtual currency may be defined as dollars, credits, tokens, points, badges or similar terms representative of value or ranking. The Electronic Exchange  210  maintains or accesses an account holding an amount of a virtual currency for each participant in the Wagering System  200 . The Electronic Exchange  210  will debit and credit a participant&#39;s account with respect to transactions involving the participant. 
         [0023]    In the preferred embodiment, a wager refers to a bet on a future outcome of a metric or plurality of metrics related to an artist, as noted above. A wager will include at least two components: (1) an expiration date and time, and (2) an event predicted to occur by or at the expiration date and time. An event may include, but is not limited to: an artist&#39;s score or other popularity metric reaching a threshold value, an artist&#39;s score or other popularity metric rising or falling by a threshold value, an artist being signed or fired by a record label, an artist&#39;s song reaching a measure of success, and an artist earning a career achievement or award. An event may be further defined by music genre, consumer demographic, and/or geographic region. 
         [0024]    In the preferred embodiment, an wager is requested by a participant using a client computer  102  and transmitted to the Electronic Exchange  210  via the Web Server  230  or the Widget Server  220 . Unless the wager is conditional, it is executed upon receipt by the Electronic Exchange  210 . A conditional wager will not be executed until the occurrence of a conditional event (such as an artist being nominated for a Grammy award), and until it is executed, it will have no effect. An executed wager is considered open until it is fulfilled or it expires. A wager is fulfilled when the outcome of the event that is the object of the wager has been determined. A fulfilled wager is either won or lost from the perspective of the participant. For a lost wager, the participant loses the amount wagered. For a won wager, the participant wins the wager payout amount as determined by the Electronic Exchange  210 , and such amount is debited to the participant&#39;s account. A wager expires if the expiration date and time is reached prior to the determination of the outcome of the event that is the object of the wager. In the preferred embodiment, an expired wager is treated the same as a lost wager. 
         [0025]    In the preferred embodiment, a wager payout amount is determined by the Electronic Exchange  210  based at least in part on data obtained from the PPS Server  103 . The PPS Server  103  maintains a popularity profile for a plurality of artists, wherein the PPS Server  103  has the capability to list a metric or plurality of metrics, such as a score or set of scores, related to the popularity profile of each artist in a numerical order. An example of a metric is the Brand Score of an artist, wherein artists are listed in descending order of the value of the Brand Score. A distribution is formed from a list by segmenting the list into groups, wherein a group is defined as a range of values. The distribution allows the Electronic Exchange  210  to determine the percentage of artists within a population of artists that exhibit a metric of which the value falls within a group (e.g. 5% of artists exhibit a Brand Score greater than 500). A payout factor is then determined from the distribution of the probabilities that a future value of the metric will equal or exceed the wagered outcome (or in cases where the metric is expected to decrease, the wagered outcome will equal or exceed the future value). By way of example in the preferred embodiment, the payout amount (in the form of a virtual currency) earned for a wager is represented as follows: 
         [0000]    
       
         
           
             
               P 
               1 
             
             = 
             
               { 
               
                 
                   
                     
                       
                         A 
                          
                         
                             
                         
                          
                         λ 
                       
                        
                       
                           
                       
                       - 
                       A 
                     
                   
                   
                     
                       
                         if 
                          
                         
                             
                         
                          
                         
                           S 
                           1 
                         
                       
                       ≥ 
                       
                         S 
                         2 
                       
                     
                   
                 
                 
                   
                     
                       - 
                       A 
                     
                   
                   
                     
                       
                         if 
                          
                         
                             
                         
                          
                         
                           S 
                           1 
                         
                       
                       &lt; 
                       
                         S 
                         2 
                       
                     
                   
                 
               
             
           
         
       
     
         [0000]    where P is the points earned (lost), S t  is the future value of a metric (such as a score) at time t, {dot over (S)} is the wagered outcome, λ is the payout factor, and A is the amount wagered. 
         [0026]    In the situation where a wager is placed on a quantitative metric encapsulated in an artist&#39;s popularity profile or otherwise measured by the PPS (e.g. a wager that an artist&#39;s Brand Score will reach 400), Electronic Exchange  210  determines the wager payout amount based on the probability that the initial value of a metric at the time the wager was executed will change to the wagered outcome (the outcome which must be achieved in order to win the wager) before the wager expires. This probability is calculated by the Electronic Exchange  210 , at least in pan, as a function of the percentage of artists exhibiting the metric at the initial value, the percentage of artists exhibiting the metric at the wagered outcome, the momentum of the metric (as measured by the PPS), the duration of the wager period (the time before expiration), and wagers placed by other participants in the Wagering System  200  for the same or related metric. In the situation where a wager is placed on a qualitative metric (e.g. a wager that an artist will win a Grammy award), the probability is calculated from a quantified metric or plurality of metrics encapsulated in an artist&#39;s popularity profile, or otherwise measured by the PPS, that best serves as an indicator for the qualitative metric that is the basis of the wager. 
       2. Widget Server  220   
       [0027]    The Widget Server  220  acts as an interface between the Wagering System  200  and any applications operating on a client computer  102  that provide or receive data to or from the Wagering System  200 . An example of a widget is an application that runs on an iPhone and allows the iPhone operator to place wagers through the Wagering System  200 . The Widget Server  220  may provide or receive data using an application programming interface (API), web services, file exchange, or other techniques known in the art. In the preferred embodiment, data is exchanged between the Widget Server  220  and the client computer  102  in a structured format which conforms to a protocol such as XML or JSON. 
         [0028]    In the preferred embodiment, the Widget Server  220  maintains a list of uniform resource locators (URLs) associated with client computers  102  that host the widgets. The Widget Server  220  pushes data or commands to the widgets operating on the client computers  102  according to configuration settings for each widget that indicates what data is to be pushed and the time or frequency to push it. Further, widgets can relay information to the Widget Server  220  based on a user request or via an automated process, such as a notification of status, an event occurrence or an alert. Generally, active widgets listen for commands or data sent from the Widget Server  220 , and the Widget Server  220  listens for requests from widgets. 
       3. Web Server  230   
       [0029]    The Web Server  230  acts an interface between the Trading System  200  and any browser applications operating on a client computer  102 . It generates one or more web pages which may utilize data from the Database  400 . A typical web page is a document composed in languages, protocols and formats including, but not limited to, HTML, DHTML, Java, Javascript, JSP, ASP, PHP, Python, Perl, Ruby, Scala, Erlang, C#, C/C++, JSON and XML; it may be implemented with other computer protocols, languages, and techniques known in the an. A web user may register on the website, providing personal and/or login information, in order to procure a website based user account and gain access to restricted web pages and/or features. The Web Server  230  may also exchange data and documents with the Widget Server  220  for use with widgets and 3 rd  party applications. 
         [0030]    In the preferred embodiment, a client computer  102  requests a web page from the Web Server  230  via a web browser. At least one web page is presented to a participant that provides the current status and outcome of the one or more wagers and/or trades of shares made by the participant. Also in the preferred embodiment, a web page may be presented that lists participants in order of performance as measured by one or more metrics including, but not limited to, the amount of currency in a participant&#39;s account, the amount of currency gained or lost in one or more wagers, and the number or percentage of favorable or unfavorable wagers made by a participant. 
       4. Database  400   
       [0031]    The Database  400  stores information utilized by the Wagenng System  200 . One of ordinary skill in the art will appreciate that the Database  400  can be implemented using a variety of open source and commercial products and tools. 
       5. Prediction Engine  240   
       [0032]    The Prediction Engine  240  performs data analysis and makes predictions about artists based on data provided by the Wagering System  200  and the Popularity Profiling System Server  103 . Other data may also be utilized. A prediction may include the future performance or popularity of an artist or an artist&#39;s content as measured by wagers, music sales, online plays, scores, or other metrics reflected in data obtained from the Wagenng System  200  and the Popularity Profiling System Server  103 . 
         [0033]    In the preferred embodiment, the Prediction Engine  240  estimates the future value of a metric, such as a score as part of the popularity profile of an artist, based at least in part on wagers placed by participants of the Wagering System  200 . 
         [0034]    In the preferred embodiment, the Prediction Engine  240  makes a prediction of a future value based on a metric or plurality of metrics, such as a criterion, set of criteria, score or set of scores associated with an artist&#39;s popularity profile as determined by a PPS operating on Popularity Profiling System Server  103 . Examples of a metric include music sales, song downloads and plays, attendance at concerts, a popularity score, and other measures of popularity and music demand. The prediction is a function of at least the amounts of the wagers, the wager payouts, the duration of the wagers (the difference between the time of execution and either expiration or fulfillment), the wagered outcomes, the actual outcomes, and the historical win/loss record of the participants. The Prediction Engine  240  will make one or multiple predictions for each metnc. For multiple predictions, the Prediction Engine  240  calculates a probability distribution for the set of predictions related to a metric, wherein each prediction in the set is assigned a probability (0% to 100%) or similar indicator that the prediction will be correct (i.e. a confidence level). The Prediction Engine  240  further calculates a margin of error for each prediction to indicate its expected accuracy. Further, for some metrics such as scores, a prediction function incorporates a trend analysis of an artist&#39;s historical scores and/or other metrics associated with a popularity profile. This is illustrated by the following examples: 
         [0000]        {dot over (S)}   t+1   =             S   1 . . . t ,),  (1)
 
         [0000]        {dot over (S)}   t+1 =         ( S   1 . . . t   ,M   1 . . . n,i . . . t ),  (2)
 
         [0000]        {dot over (S)}   t+1 =         ( S   1 . . . t   ,M   1 . . . n,i . . . t   ,W   1 . . . n,1 . . . t ), and  (3)
 
         [0000]        {dot over (S)}   t+1 =         ( S   1 . . . t   ,M   1 . . . n,i . . . t   ,W   1 . . . n,1 . . . t   ,S   1 . . . t ), and  (4)
 
         [0000]        S   t+1 =         ( S   1 . . . t   ,M   1 . . . n,i . . . t   ,W   1 . . . n,1 . . . t   ,S   1 . . . t   ,E   1 . . . t ).  (5)
 
         [0000]    where {dot over (S)} t+1  is the predicted value of a score (e.g. brand strength) at time t+1, S 1 . . . t  is the set of historical values of the score S for a prior period of time incrementally defined in units 1 through t, M 1 . . . n,1 . . . t  is a set of n different historical metrics (which may include retrieved data or other scores) for the prior period, W 1 . . . n,1 . . . t  is a set of n different wagers related to the score for the prior period. {dot over (S)} 1 . . . t  is a set of prior predictions of the score S, if any, made by the Prediction Engine  240  for the prior period, and E 1 . . . t  is a set of error values (e.g. {dot over (S)} 1 −S 1 , {dot over (S)} 2 −S 2  . . . . {dot over (S)} i −S i , . . . , {dot over (S)} i −S i ) for the prior period. The function          ( ) may be defined as a mathematical operation (or set of operations) on the inputs (which may include S 1 . . . t , M 1 . . . n, 1 . . . t , W 1 . . . n, 1 . . . t , {dot over (S)} 1 . . . t , and E 1 . . . t ). By way of example,          ( ) could represent a trend estimation technique such as the least squares method, weighted least squares method, or other method of linear regression. As another example,          ( ) could represent a pattern recognition technique such as a neural network or a hidden Markov model. 
         [0035]    Also in the preferred embodiment, the Wagering System  200  and other components described herein are used as part of an Internet based game. In one version of the game, a player assumes the role of a music professional (e.g. a music “scout” in the game MusicScout.com) with the goal of predicting which artists and/or songs will be successful. A player earns points or other virtual currency via a wager payout by making accurate predictions. Success of an artist or an artist&#39;s content is gauged at least in part by an artist&#39;s popularity profile as determined by the  1 I PPS. It may also be gauged by the results of wagers conducted via the Wagering System  200 . It may be further gauged by results from the Prediction Engine  240 . 
         [0036]      FIG. 3  illustrates wager process  300  via the Wagering System  200  in the preferred embodiment. In the first step  310 , a participant places a wager regarding a score related an artist&#39;s popularity profile as determined by the PPS operating on the Populanty Profiling System Server  103 . The wager payout may be calculated prior to or after a wager is placed. Following step  310 , the Wagering System  200  checks to see whether sufficient funds are available in the participant&#39;s account. If so, the amount of the wager is deducted from the account in step  330  and the wager is executed. The wager is then monitored at step  340 , periodically checking the outcome of the metric that is the subject of the wager until the expiration or fulfillment of the wager. The wager is evaluated to determine if it was successful at step  340 . (A wager may be evaluated prior to expiration, for example, if its success if based on the mere passing of a threshold value at some point in time regardless of its value at expiration) If the wager was successful, the participant&#39;s account is increased by the wager payout amount at step  360 . If not successful, the wager is evaluated to determine if it has expired at step  370 . 
       Objects of the Invention 
       [0037]    Accordingly several advantages and objects of the present invention include but are not limited to: 
         [0038]    A principal object of the present invention is to provide a Wagering System and Method that will overcome the deficiencies of the prior art devices. 
         [0039]    An object of the present invention is to provide a Wagering System and Method that will provide a means for participants to make wagers, trades and/or predictions related to one or more measures of the popularity and performance of an artist or an artist&#39;s content, such as the measures associated with an artist&#39;s popularity profile. 
         [0040]    Another object of the present invention is to provide a Wagering System and Method that will predict which bands, musicians and artists will likely become commercially successful, or which exhibit a high potential for commercial success, based at least in part on the wagers placed via the Wagering System related to the artists or the artists&#39; music. 
         [0041]    Another object of the present invention is to provide a Wagering System and Method which is incorporated into an Internet based game. 
         [0042]    Another object of the present invention is to provide a Wagering System and Method which has mobile ability, including being accessible through mobile phones, PDAs and other mobile Internet based devices such as the iPhone. 
         [0043]    Another object of the present invention is to provide a Wagering System and Method which is accessible through web browsers, widgets and RIAs. 
         [0044]    It is intended that any other advantages and objects of the present invention that become apparent or obvious from the detailed description or illustrations contained herein are within the scope of the present invention.