Abstract:
According to one embodiment, energy manager includes first estimator, second estimator, creator and controller. First estimator estimates power amount of power generator. Second estimator estimates energy demand. Creator creates schedule of devices based on estimated power amount and energy demand. Controller controls the devices based on the schedule. Second estimator includes storage, extractor and calculator. Storage accumulates load data. Extractor extracts load patterns including different load data. Calculator calculates weight for each of extracted patterns. Creator includes simulator and scheduler. Simulator simulates evaluated value of each schedule based on the pattern and weight. Scheduler creates schedule based on evaluated value.

Description:
CROSS-REFERENCE TO RELATED APPLICATIONS 
       [0001]    This application is a Continuation Application of PCT Application No. PCT/JP2013/056348, filed Mar. 7, 2013 and based upon and claiming the benefit of priority from Japanese Patent Application No. 2012-065300, filed Mar. 22, 2012, the entire contents of all of which are incorporated herein by reference. 
     
    
     FIELD 
       [0002]    Embodiments described herein relate generally to an energy management apparatus for managing energy consumed in, for example, a house, an energy management method and computer-readable medium. 
       BACKGROUND 
       [0003]    In recent years, new energy devices such as a Photovoltaic (PV) unit, a battery and a fuel cell (FC) are being introduced in houses. Technologies for HEMS (Home Energy Management Systems) or energy management apparatuses have also extensively been developed. Using technologies of this type enables to implement energy use optimization, energy saving, and cost reduction in customers such as houses. 
         [0004]    Many energy management apparatuses estimate an amount of energy to be consumed by energy consuming devices and creates the operation schedules of home appliances, energy storage devices, energy generation devices, and the like (to be generically referred to as electrical devices hereinafter) based on the estimation result. 
         [0005]    The energy management apparatus creates the operation schedule of an electrical device based on the estimated value of load electric energy (to be referred to as an estimated load hereinafter). Hence, if the estimation is wrong, it is impossible to create an appropriate operation schedule. For example, assume that a user has two life patterns: a pattern in which he/she goes out during the daytime, and a pattern in which he/she stays at home during the daytime. If an algorithm for the going-out pattern is used to create the operation schedule of an electrical device in the user&#39;s home, the estimated load for the at-home case is not accurate. Hence, the operation schedule is not appropriate. If a load estimation algorithm for the at-home pattern is used, the operation schedule in the going-out case is not appropriate. 
         [0006]    The estimated loads in both patterns may be added with weighting coefficients such as at-home and going-out frequencies and averaged. However, an operation schedule created based on such an estimated load is eventually inappropriate for both the at-home pattern and the going-out pattern. 
     
    
     
       BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS 
         [0007]      FIG. 1  is a block diagram exemplary showing a system to which an energy management apparatus according to an embodiment is applicable; 
           [0008]      FIG. 2  is a functional block diagram showing an example of an energy management apparatus  17 ; 
           [0009]      FIG. 3  is a functional block diagram showing an example of a PV estimation unit  172 ; 
           [0010]      FIG. 4  is a functional block diagram showing an example of a load estimation unit  173 ; 
           [0011]      FIG. 5  is a functional block diagram showing an example of a creation unit  174 ; 
           [0012]      FIG. 6  is an example of a graph showing a plurality of load patterns; 
           [0013]      FIG. 7  is a flowchart showing an example of the processing procedure of the load estimation unit  173 ; 
           [0014]      FIG. 8  is a flowchart showing an example of the processing procedure of step S 1  shown in  FIG. 7 ; 
           [0015]      FIG. 9  is a flowchart showing an example of the processing procedure of step S 2  shown in  FIG. 7 ; 
           [0016]      FIG. 10  is a flowchart showing an example of the processing procedure of a simulator  174 A; 
           [0017]      FIG. 11  is a flowchart showing an example of the processing procedure of the creation unit  174 ; 
           [0018]      FIG. 12  is a functional block diagram showing an example of a personal computer capable of implementing the functions of the energy management apparatus  17  by software; and 
           [0019]      FIG. 13  is a flowchart showing an example of a processing procedure according to another embodiment. 
       
    
    
     DETAILED DESCRIPTION 
       [0020]    In general, according to one embodiment, an energy management apparatus includes a power generation estimation unit, a demand estimation unit, a creation unit and a controller. The power generation estimation unit estimates a power generation amount of a power generation apparatus using a renewable energy. The demand estimation unit estimates an energy demand of an electrical device of a customer. The creation unit creates an operation schedule of the electrical device based on the estimated power generation amount and energy demand. The controller controls the electrical device based on the operation schedule. The demand estimation unit includes a storage unit, an extraction unit and a calculation unit. The storage unit accumulates load data representing a result of a load of the electrical device. The extraction unit extracts a plurality of load patterns including a plurality of different load data from the accumulated load data. 
         [0021]    The calculation unit calculates a weight based on a predetermined standard for each of the extracted load patterns. The creation unit includes a simulator and a schedule creation unit. The simulator simulates, using a predetermined algorithm, an evaluated value of each operation schedule based on the extracted load pattern and the weight of the load pattern. The schedule creation unit creates the operation schedule based on the evaluated value. 
         [0022]      FIG. 1  is a block diagram exemplary showing a system to which an energy management apparatus according to an embodiment is applicable. The system shown in  FIG. 1  includes a PV unit  11 , a battery  12 , a fuel cell (FC)  13 , a power conditioning system (PCS)  14 , a distribution switchboard  15 , home appliances  16  (including a plurality of electrical devices), and an energy management apparatus  17 . 
         [0023]    The PV unit  11  generates power from sunlight. The battery  12  is charged with the power and discharged. The fuel cell  13  generates power and heat using a gas as a fuel. The distribution switchboard  15  supplies the power supplied from a power grid to the home appliances  16  via power lines. The power from the power lines may charge the battery  12 . 
         [0024]    The PCS  14  converts DC power generated by the PV unit  11 , the battery  12 , or the fuel cell  13  into AC power and supplies it to the distribution switchboard  15 . If the electric energy supplied from the PCS  14  is larger than the power consumption of the home appliances  16 , dump power is sold to a power company through the power grid. 
         [0025]    The energy management apparatus  17  communicates with the Internet  18 , a user terminal  19 , the distribution switchboard  15 , the PCS  14 , the battery  12 , and the fuel cell  13  through information lines. The energy management apparatus  17  also manages the battery  12 , the fuel cell  13 , the PCS  14 , the distribution switchboard  15 , and the like based on information acquired by the communication, and controls their operations. 
         [0026]    The energy management apparatus  17  acquires an weather forecast, an electricity rate tariff, and a gas rate tariff from the Internet  18 . The user inputs information such as the frequency of electrical device operation schedule creation by the energy management apparatus  17  from the user terminal  19  to the energy management apparatus  17 . The energy management apparatus  17  acquires the power consumption of the home appliances  16  from the distribution switchboard  15 . 
         [0027]    The energy management apparatus  17  acquires the power generation amount (PV power generation amount) of the PV unit  11  from the PCS  14 . 
         [0028]    The energy management apparatus  17  acquires charge power, discharge power, and SOC (State Of Charge) from the battery  12 . The energy management apparatus  17  also outputs a charge instruction or a discharge instruction to the battery  12 . 
         [0029]    The energy management apparatus  17  acquires the power generation amount and the heat generation amount from the fuel cell  13 . The energy management apparatus  17  also outputs a power generation instruction or a heat generation instruction to the fuel cell  13 . Note that the above-described pieces of information are merely examples, and the energy management apparatus  17  can acquire and output various kinds of information in addition to those pieces of information. 
         [0030]      FIG. 2  is a functional block diagram showing an example of the energy management apparatus  17  shown in  FIG. 1 . The energy management apparatus  17  includes a control unit  171 , a PV estimation unit  172 , a load estimation unit  173 , a creation unit  174 , a battery controller  175 , and an FC control unit  176 . 
         [0031]    The control unit  171  controls the energy management apparatus  17  in accordance with a control policy input from the user terminal  19 . For example, if the user wants the operation schedules to be revised once an hour, the energy management apparatus  17  creates the operation schedules of, the battery  12  and the fuel cell  13  once an hour. The battery  12  and the fuel cell  13  are then given operation instructions based on the operation schedules. 
         [0032]    As shown in  FIG. 3 , the PV estimation unit  172  includes a storage unit  172 A and a power generation estimation unit  172 B. The storage unit  172 A stores the past result value of the PV power generation amount as a history. The power generation estimation unit  172 B acquires the result value of the PV power generation amount from the storage unit  172 A and acquires a weather forecast from the Internet  18 . The power generation estimation unit  172 B generates the estimated value (PV estimated value) of the PV power generation amount based on the result value of the PV power generation amount and the weather forecast. For example, a method of estimating an amount of solar irradiation from a weather forecast every three hours is known. Hence, the PV estimated value can be calculated using the method. 
         [0033]    As shown in  FIG. 4 , the load estimation unit  173  includes a storage unit  173 A and an arithmetic unit  173 B. The storage unit  173 A accumulates the past result value (load data) of the load of the home appliances  16  as a history. The arithmetic unit  173 B acquires the load data of the home appliances  16  from the storage unit  173 A and generates a plurality of weighted estimated load data. Details will be described later. 
         [0034]    As shown in  FIG. 5 , the creation unit  174  includes a simulator  174 A and a schedule creation unit  174 B. The schedule creation unit  174 B creates the operation schedule (battery operation schedule) of the battery  12  and the operation schedule (FC operation schedule) of the fuel cell  13  based on, for example, the PV estimated value, the current value of the load of the home appliances  16 , the plurality of weighted estimated load data, the electricity rate tariff, the gas rate tariff, the specifications of the respective home appliances  16 , and the SOC of the battery  12 . Details will be described later. 
         [0035]    The battery controller  175  gives the battery  12  an operation instruction based on the battery operation schedule. The FC control unit  176  gives the fuel cell  13  an operation instruction based on the FC operation schedule. 
         [0036]    Processing of the load estimation unit  173  will be described next in detail. The arithmetic unit  173 B acquires load data at an arbitrary point of time from the storage unit  173 A and calculates weighted estimated load data. 
         [0037]    The arithmetic unit  173 B includes an extraction unit B 1  and a weight calculation unit B 2 . The extraction unit B 1  extracts load data before and after a control target time of a past day from data acquired from the storage unit  173 A. 
         [0038]    The weight calculation unit B 2  calculates, from a set including load data up to the control target time of the current day and load data before and after the control target time of a past day, the weight for each set based on a predetermined standard. The calculated weight is associated with each load data set, and the set of both data is output as weighted estimated load data. 
         [0039]    Assume that the control target time is 8:00 am, and the load is estimated every hour of 24 hrs from 8:00 am. The storage unit  173 A is assumed to accumulate the load data of a target customer every other hour. 
         [0040]    The extraction unit B 1  extracts, from load data, load data Li[t] for 24 hrs before and after 8:00 am (a total of 48 hrs) of an arbitrary past date (Li: t=−24 to 24, i=1 to N, N is the number of sequences extracted from the load data). Load data before the control target time in each sequence is represented by Li−, and load data after the control target time is represented by Li+. A load data set of each date will be referred to as a load pattern. 
         [0041]    The load pattern of the target day is represented by Ltoday[t] (t=−24 to 24). Load data before the control target time of the target day, that is, Ltoday[t] (t=−24 to 0) is represented by Ltoday−, and load data after the control target time, that is, Ltoday[t] (t=1 to 24) is represented by Ltoday+. Ltoday+ corresponds to the load pattern (estimated load pattern) to be estimated. Li (i=1 to N) and Ltoday are transferred to the weight calculation unit B 2 . In this case, i (i=1 to N) is an index used to discriminate load patterns. 
         [0042]      FIG. 6  shows load patterns L 1 , L 2 , and L 3  of three different days (N=3) and the load pattern Ltoday− up to the current time of the current day. L 1 , L 2 , and L 3  are indicated by solid lines, and Ltoday− is indicated by a dotted line. Note that the control target time and the current time can be the same. 
         [0043]    The weight calculation unit B 2  calculates a weight Wi of Li+. First, the weight calculation unit B 2  calculates a standard deviation σ[t] (t=−24 to 0) using all i (=1 to N) for Li− of each time. Next, the weight calculation unit B 2  calculates Wi based on the equation (1). 
         [0000]    
       
         
           
             
               
                 
                   Wi 
                   = 
                   
                     
                       ∏ 
                       
                         t 
                         = 
                         
                           - 
                           24 
                         
                       
                       0 
                     
                      
                     
                         
                     
                      
                     
                       
                         1 
                         
                           
                             2 
                              
                             π 
                              
                             
                                 
                             
                              
                             
                               
                                 σ 
                                  
                                 
                                   [ 
                                   t 
                                   ] 
                                 
                               
                               2 
                             
                           
                         
                       
                        
                       
                         exp 
                         ( 
                         
                           - 
                           
                             
                               
                                 ( 
                                 
                                   
                                     Ltoday 
                                      
                                     
                                       [ 
                                       t 
                                       ] 
                                     
                                   
                                   - 
                                   
                                     Li 
                                      
                                     
                                       [ 
                                       t 
                                       ] 
                                     
                                   
                                 
                                 ) 
                               
                               2 
                             
                             
                               2 
                                
                               
                                 
                                   σ 
                                    
                                   
                                     [ 
                                     t 
                                     ] 
                                   
                                 
                                 2 
                               
                             
                           
                         
                         ) 
                       
                     
                   
                 
               
               
                 
                   ( 
                   1 
                   ) 
                 
               
             
           
         
       
     
         [0044]    The set of weight Wi and Li+ (i=1 to N) is transferred to the creation unit  174  as weighted estimated load data. 
         [0045]    Wi′ calculated by the following method may be used in place of Wi. The load patterns Li+ of N sets are classified into the values of weekdays and the values of holidays as Lwj+ and Lhk+ (j=1 to N 1 , k=1 to N 2 , N 1 +N 2 =N), respectively. An index w represents a weekday, and an index h represents a holiday. The weekdays and the holidays can be discriminated based on, for example, the day at 12:00 of Li+. 
         [0046]    To obtain Wi′, the weight calculation unit B 2  calculates the probability distributions of Lwi+ and Lhi+ for each time t=1 to 24. As the probability distribution, for example, a normal distribution can be used. The mean and standard deviation of each time t are represented by mw[t] and σw[t] for a weekday and mh[t] and ah[t] for a holiday. Using the normal distribution, Wi′ can be calculated based on the equations (2) and (3). 
         [0000]    
       
         
           
             
               
                 
                   
                     Wi 
                     ′ 
                   
                   = 
                   
                     Wi 
                     × 
                     
                       
                         ∏ 
                         
                           t 
                           = 
                           1 
                         
                         24 
                       
                        
                       
                           
                       
                        
                       
                         
                           1 
                           
                             
                               2 
                                
                               πσ 
                                
                               
                                   
                               
                                
                               
                                 
                                   w 
                                    
                                   
                                     [ 
                                     t 
                                     ] 
                                   
                                 
                                 2 
                               
                             
                           
                         
                          
                         
                           exp 
                           ( 
                           
                             - 
                             
                               
                                 
                                   ( 
                                   
                                     
                                       Li 
                                        
                                       
                                         [ 
                                         t 
                                         ] 
                                       
                                     
                                     - 
                                     
                                       mw 
                                        
                                       
                                         [ 
                                         t 
                                         ] 
                                       
                                     
                                   
                                   ) 
                                 
                                 2 
                               
                               
                                 2 
                                  
                                 σ 
                                  
                                 
                                     
                                 
                                  
                                 
                                   
                                     w 
                                      
                                     
                                       [ 
                                       t 
                                       ] 
                                     
                                   
                                   2 
                                 
                               
                             
                           
                           ) 
                         
                          
                         
                             
                         
                          
                         
                           ( 
                           weekday 
                           ) 
                         
                       
                     
                   
                 
               
               
                 
                   ( 
                   2 
                   ) 
                 
               
             
             
               
                 
                   
                     Wi 
                     ′ 
                   
                   = 
                   
                     Wi 
                     × 
                     
                       
                         ∏ 
                         
                           t 
                           = 
                           1 
                         
                         24 
                       
                        
                       
                           
                       
                        
                       
                         
                           1 
                           
                             
                               2 
                                
                               πσ 
                                
                               
                                   
                               
                                
                               
                                 
                                   h 
                                    
                                   
                                     [ 
                                     t 
                                     ] 
                                   
                                 
                                 2 
                               
                             
                           
                         
                          
                         
                           exp 
                           ( 
                           
                             - 
                             
                               
                                 
                                   ( 
                                   
                                     
                                       Li 
                                        
                                       
                                         [ 
                                         t 
                                         ] 
                                       
                                     
                                     - 
                                     
                                       mh 
                                        
                                       
                                         [ 
                                         t 
                                         ] 
                                       
                                     
                                   
                                   ) 
                                 
                                 2 
                               
                               
                                 2 
                                  
                                 σ 
                                  
                                 
                                     
                                 
                                  
                                 
                                   
                                     h 
                                      
                                     
                                       [ 
                                       t 
                                       ] 
                                     
                                   
                                   2 
                                 
                               
                             
                           
                           ) 
                         
                          
                         
                             
                         
                          
                         
                           ( 
                           holiday 
                           ) 
                         
                       
                     
                   
                 
               
               
                 
                   ( 
                   3 
                   ) 
                 
               
             
           
         
       
     
         [0047]    Wi, and/or Wi′ represents the likelihood of Li+. As indicated by equations (2) and (3), the weights are calculated using a rule that the equation to be used is changed between a weekday and a holiday. However, this is merely an example. Alternatively, a rule that time-series data is clustered by the distance, and the time-series data are classified into clusters may be applied. The rule can be created using, for example, a decision tree. 
         [0048]      FIG. 7  is a flowchart showing an example of the processing procedure of the load estimation unit  173 . Referring to  FIG. 7 , first, load pattern extraction processing is performed (step S 1 ). Next, weight calculation processing is executed (step S 2 ), and the series of processes is completed. 
         [0049]      FIG. 8  is a flowchart showing an example of the processing procedure of step S 1  shown in  FIG. 7 . Referring to  FIG. 8 , when the current time is input (step S 11 ), the extraction unit B 1  extracts the load data for current time±24 hrs from the storage unit  173 A and creates a sequence (Li[−24], Li[−23], . . . , Li[0], . . . , Li[23], Li[24]) (step S 12 ). In this case, i=N, and N represents the number of generated sequences. The extraction unit B 1  subsequently transfers Li to the weight calculation unit B 2  (step S 13 ), and the series of processes ends. 
         [0050]      FIG. 9  is a flowchart showing an example of the processing procedure of step S 2  shown in  FIG. 7 . Referring to  FIG. 9 , when Li and Ltoday are input (step S 21 ), the weight calculation unit B 2  calculates a variance σ[t] 2  for each i=N at each t of Li[t] (t=−24, −23, . . . , −1). Next, the weight calculation unit B 2  calculates Wi for each sequence Li−[t] using equation (1) (step S 23 ). The weight calculation unit B 2  outputs the set of Wi and Li[t] (t=0, 1, . . . , 24) (weighted estimated load data) (step S 24 ), and the series of processes ends. 
         [0051]    Processing of the creation unit  174  will be explained next. The description will be made assuming that the operation schedule is calculated every hour. 
         [0052]    Processing of the simulator  174 A of the creation unit  174  will be described first. The simulator  174 A executes arithmetic processing based on a predetermined algorithm. In this embodiment, the algorithm is assumed to use the following variables. 
         [0053]    Li[t]: load data of sequence i (t=1 to 24) 
         [0054]    Wi: weight of sequence Li[t] 
         [0055]    PV[t]: PV power generation estimated value for 24 hrs ahead (t=1 to 24) 
         [0056]    Cp[t]: electricity price for 24 hrs ahead (the electricity price upon selling and that upon buying can be different) (t=1 to 24) 
         [0057]    Cg: gas rate 
         [0058]    SOC[0]: SOC of current time this algorithm outputs the following variables. 
         [0059]    SOC[1]: SOC instruction value 1 hr after 
         [0060]    eFC[1]: FC generated electric energy instruction value for 1 hr ahead 
         [0061]    The simulator  174 A first creates a combination (SOC[1], eFC[1]) of SOC[1] (values that can be taken on are 0, . . . , SOCmax) and eFC[1] (values that can be taken on are 0, . . . , eFCmax). SOC[1] and eFC[1] can take on values in steps of, for example, 10. (SOC[1], eFC[1]) take on values of, for example, (25, 700). 
         [0062]    Similarly, the simulator  174 A creates a combination (SOC[t], eFC[t]) of SOC[t] (values that can be taken on are 0, . . . , SOCmax) and eFC[t] (values that can be taken on are 0, . . . , eFCmax) for t (t=2 to 24). (SOC[2], eFC[2]) take on values of, for example, (30, 700). SOC[t] and eFCl[t] can also take on values in steps of 10. A combination of (SOC[t], eFC[t]) for t=2 to 24 is (SOCall, eFCall). (SOCall, eFCall) can be represented by, for example, 
         [0063]    (30, 700) (35,700) (40,700) . . . (30,0)(30,0). 
         [0064]    This is a combination of instances (SOC[2], eFC[2]), (SOC[3], eFC[3]), (SOC[4], eFC[4]), . . . , (SOC[23], eFC[23]), (SOC[24], eFC[24]) from the head. 
         [0065]    Next, for certain (SOCall, eFCall), the simulator  174 A calculates the following amounts for t=1 to 24. 
         [0000]      Power[ t]=Li[t ]−PV[ t]−e BAT[ t]−e FC[ t] 
 
         [0000]      Price[ t ]=Power[ t]*Cp[t]*h+fFC[t]*Cg    
         [0000]        e BAT[ t ]=(SOC[ t ]−SOC[ t− 1])*α
 
         [0066]    α is a parameter to convert a change in the SOC into power. For example, in a 4-kWh battery, α is 40. When the SOC changes from 20% to 30%, this battery is charged to an electric energy of (30-20)*40=400 Wh. An average charge power eBAT[t] is 400 W. 
         [0067]    h is a coefficient used to convert power into an electric energy. When the power is calculated every hour, the coefficient h is 1. fFC[t] is a gas amount necessary for generating a power eFC[t]. The gas rate can be calculated by multiplying fFC[t] by Cg. 
         [0068]    Next, the simulator  174 A calculates Priceall by totaling Price[t] for t=1 to 24. If Power[t] is negative, the power is sold to the grid side (power selling). Under the constraint that the power selling amount at the time of PV power generation cannot exceed the PV power generation amount, a constraint PV[t]&gt;−Power[t] is provided. If at least one of the constraints is not satisfied for all t, the simulator  174 A does not calculate the Price of the combination (SOCall, eFCall). 
         [0069]    The simulator  174 A calculates Priceall for all combinations (SOCall, eFCall), and the minimum value of Priceall is set as a representative price PP[i] of a certain combination (SOC[1], eFC[1]). The simulator  174 A calculates PP[i] for all i in each (SOC[1], eFC[1]). The calculated values indicate the value distribution of (SOC[1], eFC[1]). 
         [0070]    If the strategy associated with the operation schedules is to minimize the expected value of light and fuel expenses, the simulator  174 A obtains (SOC[1], eFC[1]) for which the average for all i of Wi*PP[i] is minimum as the output of the algorithm. 
         [0071]    Under the constraint that the light and fuel expenses need to be lower than a predetermined amount at a probability of 95%, the weight Wi of PP[i] is added in descending order of price. (SOC[1], eFC[1]) for which the average for all i of Wi*PP[i] is minimum is selected from (SOC[1], eFC[1]) for which PP[i] when the sum of weights Wi exceeds 5% is lower than a predetermined amount as the output of the algorithm. 
         [0072]    Note that if a plurality of sequences of PV estimated values are given, the above-described calculation is performed for each sequence, and the value distribution is calculated in consideration of the weights of the PV estimated values. 
         [0073]    The above-described contents are shown in the flowcharts of  FIGS. 10 and 11 .  FIG. 10  illustrates an example of the processing procedure of the simulator  174 A. First, after SOC[0] is given, the simulator  174 A increments i and acquires SOC[i] (i=1) (step S 31 ). Next, the simulator  174 A calculates PP[i] for (SOC[1], eFC[1]) concerning the estimated load i (step S 32 ). 
         [0074]    The simulator  174 A determines whether i&gt;N (N is the number of sequences of estimated loads) (step S 33 ). If i&gt;N does not hold, i is incremented (step S 34 ), and the processing procedure returns to step S 32 . If i&gt;N holds, the simulator  174 A calculates an evaluated value using Price[i] of each (SOC[1], eFC[1]) (*) and outputs it (step S 35 ). In step S 35 , for example, the average for i of PP[i]*Wi is calculated as the evaluated value of (SOC[1], eFC[1]). 
         [0075]      FIG. 11  illustrates an example of the processing procedure of the schedule creation unit  174 B. Referring to  FIG. 11 , when the variables Li[t], Wi, PV[t], Cp[t], and Cg and (SOC[1], eFC[1]) are input (step S 41 ), the schedule creation unit  174 B lists all (SOCall, eFCall) and executes the following processing for each combination (step S 42 ). 
         [0076]    First, setting t=1 (step S 43 ), the schedule creation unit  174 B calculates the following amounts (step S 44 ). 
         [0000]        e Bat[ t ]=(SOC[ t ]−SOC[ t− 1])*α
 
         [0000]      Power[ t]=Li[t ]−PV[ t]−e Bat[ t]−e FC[ t] 
 
         [0000]      Price[ t ]=Power[ t]*Cp[t]*h+Cg*f FC[ t]   
         [0077]    Next, the schedule creation unit  174 B determines whether t&gt;24 (step S 45 ). If t has not reached 24, (t+1) is set in t (step S 46 ), and the calculation in step S 44  is executed. If t&gt;24 is true in step S 45 , the schedule creation unit  174 B totals Price[t] for 24 hrs to obtain Priceall (step S 47 ). 
         [0078]    Next, the schedule creation unit  174 B selects (SOCall, eFCall) for which Priceall is minimum out of all (SOCall, eFCall) as PP[i] for (SOC[1], eFC[1]) (step S 48 ) and outputs PP[i] (step S 49 ). 
         [0079]    The above-described method is an example of the combination optimization problem. If a branch and bound method is used, the processing time can be shortened. In a case in which obtaining a quasi optimum solution suffices, simulated annealing or the like can be used. A genetic algorithm or the like is also usable. 
         [0080]    Next, the schedule creation unit  174 B creates the operation schedules of the battery  12  and the fuel cell  13  for the output (SOC[1], eFC[1]) of the simulator  174 A and gives the operation schedules to the battery controller  175  and the FC control unit  176 , respectively. 
         [0081]    The battery controller  175  creates a control instruction based on the operation schedule SOC[t] of the battery  12  received from the schedule creation unit  174 B and gives it to the battery  12 . More specifically, for example, an instruction to “set the SOC per hr of the battery to 30%” is given to the battery  12  using a predetermined control command. 
         [0082]    The FC control unit  176  creates a control instruction based on the operation schedule eFC[t] of the fuel cell  13  and gives it to the fuel cell  13 . More specifically, for example, an instruction to “operate the fuel cell at 700 W” is given to the fuel cell  13  using a predetermined control command. The battery  12  and the fuel cell  13  can thus be operated in accordance with the optimized operation schedules. 
         [0083]    The processing of each block of the energy management apparatus  17  can be executed by causing a personal computer (PC) shown in  FIG. 12  to execute a program including the processes shown in the flowcharts of  FIGS. 7 ,  8 ,  9 ,  10 , and  11 . 
         [0084]    The personal computer shown in  FIG. 12  includes a CPU (Central Processing Unit)  22 , a memory  23  used to execute a program, a hard disk  24  used to store program data, a GUI (Graphical User Interface)  25  that accepts a user input operation, and an interface  26 , all of which are connected to a bus  21 . The battery  12 , the fuel cell  13 , the PCS  14 , the distribution switchboard  15 , and the Internet  18  are connected to the interface  26 . 
         [0085]    That is, the program to control the energy management apparatus  17  is stored in the hard disk  24 , extracted on the memory  23  at the time of execution, and processed by the CPU  22 . This program also includes a function of communicating with the Internet  18 , the distribution switchboard  15 , the PCS  14 , the fuel cell  13 , and the battery  12  via the interface  26 . This program also controls the fuel cell  13  and the battery  12  via the interface  26 . This program also accepts a user input via the GUI  25 . 
         [0086]    As described above, according to this embodiment, a plurality of weighted estimated load data are calculated based on the PV estimated value and the history of the loads of the home appliances  16 . The operation schedules of the battery and the fuel cell are created based on the plurality of weighted estimated load data. The battery and the fuel cell can be operated based on the operation schedules. The operation schedules can also be corrected as needed. Hence, according to this embodiment, it is possible to greatly reduce the risk of wrong estimation and more efficiently manage energy consumption. 
       Other Embodiments 
       [0087]    In general, a behavior in the future is supposed to depend on the most recent behavior. According to this principle, a more accurate operation schedule can be created by using more load data close to the target time and less load data distant from the control target time. This technical idea will be disclosed in another embodiment. 
         [0088]      FIG. 13  is a conceptual view for explaining weight calculation not to largely be affected by the distant past. In the above-described embodiment, the value in each hour is used as the load data Li−. Instead, in the other embodiment, the step of the time of the load data Li− is changed. That is, the step of the time of the load data Li− is changed such that the number of samples of the load data Li− close to the target time becomes large, and the number of samples of the load data Li− far from the target time becomes small. 
         [0089]    As shown in  FIG. 13(   a ), for example, Li[−24] to Li[−17] are integrated to L′i[−7]. Li[−16] to Li[−11] are integrated to L′i[−6]. Li[−10] to Li[−7] are integrated to L′i[−5]. Li[−6] and Li[−5] are integrated to L′i[−4]. Li[−4] and Li[−3] are integrated to L′i[−3]. Li[−2] and Li[−1] are directly used as L′i[−2] and L′i[−1], respectively. L′i-including the seven data is calculated. 
         [0090]    For Ltoday− as well, L′today− including seven data is calculated, as shown in  FIG. 13(   b ). Wi is calculated by the same weight calculation as in the above-described embodiment using L′i− (i=1, . . . , N) and L′today−. 
         [0091]    Integrating load data of the distant past on the time base while fractionating load data of the close past on the time base, as in the other embodiment, in stead of equally handling the load data in the unit time, allows to perform weight calculation not to largely be affected by the distant past. It is therefore possible to properly reduce the risk of wrong load estimation. 
         [0092]    While certain embodiments have been described, these embodiments have been presented by way of example only, and are not intended to limit the scope of the inventions. Indeed, the novel embodiments described herein may be embodied in a variety of other forms; furthermore, various omissions, substitutions and changes in the form of the embodiments described herein may be made without departing from the spirit of the inventions. The accompanying claims and their equivalents are intended to cover such forms or modifications as would fall within the scope and spirit of the inventions.