MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN THE LABOR FORCE IN TERMS OF INNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SAMARA REGION



Based on official data of territorial body of Federal state statistics service of the Samara region, the analysis of dynamics of key indicators of the labour market over the ten year period, built an econometric model of the labour market and identifies a number of non-standard situations that characterize the labor sphere of the region.

Key words: labour market, employment, region, innovation economy, economically active population, correlation and regression analysis, model, working-age population.

Innovative development of the Samara region is largely based on the real economy, not so much raw as industrial type. Samara Region is one of the sustainable industrial regions of the country with a diversified economy, a high concentration of manufacturing industries and a strong scientific and innovative potential. The basis of the development of the region's economy is the high-tech manufacturing industries with high added value - automotive, aerospace complex manufacturing with high depth of processing of raw materials in the fields of chemistry and metallurgy. Introduction of innovative technologies - an essential condition for their development and modernization on the basis of technical re-equipment, the use of innovative methods in management. Modern segmentation of the regional economy determines the most promising areas of industrial production. In this context, questions are vulnerable optimal allocation of labor resources involved in various activities, for example, can not exceed a certain level of employment in industry, without danger to return to the previous exaggerated industrial economy development. Determining the most successful combination of economic sectors, it must be remembered, and the optimal ratio of personnel potential, providing profiles of the modern development of the region. It is not dependent on external circumstances, man always attracted the thought of what will happen in the future, the future beckons its unpredictability and uncertainty. Using the official statistical report documents in the sphere of regional employment, unemployment, labor movement, we can find an explanation of certain regularities in the changes of use of labor potential of the region and the prospects for the labor market development of the Samara region. So, referring to the data in Figures 1-2 it can be seen that the Samara region largely exceeds national significance, and the rate of unemployment at all-time low.

Using mathematical modeling methods become available forecasts changes in the scope of work, each of the scenarios which may disclose quantitative and substantial characteristics of the labor force, unemployment and employment with a given time lag. You can also use the official forecast values of socio-economic development for 2015-2017 years, which largely optimistic promise trends in human resource capacity development .

Thus, the level of employment on the basis of the survey on the problems of employment of the population on average for June - August 2014 in Samara Region (70.5%) is maintained at a level above the national average (65.9%) and medium-district (66.4%) values.

Despite a slight increase in the number of registered unemployed, the unemployment rate in the Samara region remains low. Total unemployment rate for June - August 2014 decreased relative to the corresponding period of 2013 with 3,1 to 2,5% . According to this indicator the region occupies the 4th place in the ranking of the Russian Federation and in the neighborhood this is the minimum value. Throughout the year, the number of open vacancies far exceeds the number of registered unemployed (as of 01.10.2014 - in 3,3 times) .

The studies  have a goal to track changes in the labor force of the Samara region for the last 15 years by sampling a number of factors on the basis of available data, statistical reports , and build a predictive model using regression analysis.

The following factors were selected for construction of analytical-predictive model:

1. The number of unemployed with higher education (Х1);

2. The number of the unemployed with basic general education (Х2);

3. The number of the unemployed with secondary vocational education (Х3);

4. The domestic regional product (Х4);

5. The number of unemployed (Х5);

6. The average monthly per capita income (Х6);

7. The number of persons employed in enterprises with state ownership (Х7);

8. The number of people employed on a privately owned enterprises (Х8).

The choice of these factors based on the available statistical reporting of data for the period from 2003-2012 year.

The resultant model is a sign of the average number of employees. Evidence suggests that a decrease in the number of employees, in 2004 this figure decreased by 3.4% since 2003. This is due to the deteriorating economic situation, and therefore job cuts. Soaking slight fluctuation, the figure in 2009. It is declining sharply, largely due to the global economic crisis. However, starting next year, an increase in the number of employees and the value of the average number of employees in 2012 reached pre-crisis levels.

The first indicator, which may affect the annual average number of employees - the number of unemployed with higher education. Evidence suggests that the number of unemployed with higher education is experiencing significant fluctuations. A low value of this indicator can act 2007. In which the number of unemployed with higher education is minimal. In the future, only for the next two years of highly educated unemployed was almost 5 times more.

The second measure, which was used for multivariate analysis - a number of the unemployed with basic general education. The number of unemployed with a basic general education, as well as all previous performance experience significant fluctuations. The lowest value of this indicator is necessary for 2004, next year this figure increased by 3.4 times.

The third indicator - the number of unemployed with secondary vocational education. The data show that the value of the number of unemployed with secondary vocational education is also not stable. The largest number of the unemployed with secondary vocational education accounts for 2009.

The fourth factor regression model - domestic regional product. The analysis shows that the curve of GRP over the period under review had a smooth, sustained through 2008, "sagging" of the index marks only in 2009. 1.3 times compared with the previous year and the next year increased its lost potential.

The fifth factor - the number of unemployed. Also, the most urgent are the values of 2009. in which the number of unemployed has increased by 2.7 times.

The sixth measure the average cash income per capita.  Unfortunately, Draven average monthly cash income per capita in the direction of its reduction has a high flexibility in the restoration of the lost positions. The seventh factor regression model - with the number of employees at state-owned enterprises.

As can be seen from the graph, the number of employees in public enterprises decreased by 10.7% in 2005, but increased by 8.4% in 2006 and in 2012. It increased by 13.2%.

Next, the eighth, the rate - the number of employees in the private ownership enterprises.

Thus, the following parameters were taken for multivariate regression analysis.

As a result of analysis it is necessary to come to a functional dependence of the form

Y = f (X1, Х2, Х3, Х4, Х5, Х6, Х7, Х8).

Summary table of indicators is as follows.

Next it was calculated pairwise correlation coefficients between the effective sign of Y and factorial signs X1, Х2, Х3, Х4, Х5, Х6, Х7, Х8 and each pair of factor variables. Trait correlation coefficient with itself is 1.

The resulting model shows that:

1) an increase in the number of unemployed with basic general education will lead to a decrease in the average number of employees by 0.7% - these are people with a lack of qualified workers and the demand for such skills is not great;

2) an increase in the number of unemployed with secondary vocational education will lead to a decrease in the effective index of 2.4% - this indicates that employees with secondary vocational education there is strong demand, as such an education have skilled workers in demand of industrial enterprises in the area;

3) an increase in the average monthly cash income per capita would increase the average number of employees by 17.8%. As a rule, in good times, when economic indicators improve, raise wages to attract workers;

4) an increase in the number of employees in enterprises with state ownership will lead to a change in the average number of employees by 12.2%;

5) increase in the number of employees in enterprises with private ownership will lead to an increase in the average number of employees by 26.7% .

The resulting model can be used to predict changes in the average number of employed in certain factor values. Applying the variation of their values, we can predict the score itself a sign. Indeed, in modern conditions the pre-modeled scenario conditions today tomorrow may differ materially.

The overall impression of the selected indicators of the labor market creates some alogisms. For example, the number of working-age population is decreasing, as well as the economically active population, but the rate of compression parameters are different: the more obvious loss observed in the population of the age group 16-55 / 59 years, while the number of people employed plus unemployed aged 15-72 years, remains at a high level.

One of the assumptions of the current situation may be a manifestation of the specifics of the change of generations in the labor market of the Samara region. After all, the situation with the number of able-bodied population is formed in a different scenario. The contradictory nature of the labor market situation is the fact that after 2008 clearly marked discrepancy in the dynamics of the economically active population and the employed population .

Employment in the region's economy population aged 55-59 years has doubled, and those over 60 years of 1.5 . This confirms the high interest of pensioners to maintain their relevance in the labor sphere of activity of the Samara region.