we assume this distribution is correct, then the optimal strategy is to always choose heads. But if we've already established that's a really bad idea, because now the opponent can simply shift to selling the coin when it lands heads and choose and play with the coin lands tails. So, the problem with this approach is that we're making an assumption about how the opponent is playing. If it were true, like if this distribution were true that they were choosing play with 80 percent probability in heads and 30 percent probability in tails,