convenient might be to collect data and estimate them and so we'll look at that in when we restart in two minutes let me mute it for a moment [Music] [Music] [Music] alright let's restart so let's look at estimating some parameters Oh wrong one so simple example let's say we have a thumbtack and you want to build a probability distribution when you throw it up and it lands on the table or in the ground will it I should be pointing up or will it be lying on its side with the kind of neatly thing pointing diagonally down well what do you think