seventy-seven percent chance according to this experiment that you land at the pointy thing up okay so that might be our best model we can make for this short of somebody collecting even more data and getting a more precise estimate of this thing but then I mean this kind of a somewhat specifically designed scenario it's very hard to just you do some first principles but even when you do have first principles available for the dynamical system you're trying to model often a lot of details you won't know very precisely