all table times and it's not the same video clip every time the pen will fall in the different direction and if I ask you to predict what is the state what is going to be the set of the world in two seconds you can tell that the pen is going to fall but you can't tell really in which direction right most of the time so if you train a deterministic function to make one prediction the best thing you can do is predict the average of all the possible futures which would be a transparent pen in all possible configurations and if you actually do