and we might just work with that now I might say well too small an experiment need to run this for longer sure that's just somebody did this and so any thoughts what the probability is gonna be zero point eight you think zero point eight now maybe I don't know yet well no on the next slide any other guesses two-thirds it's never hard to know I mean it's very empirical so it turns out total up seventy-seven total down 23 so they tossed up ten of them every time and then looked at how many we're up versus down so yeah