Judul: Proyeksi Curah Hujan Masa Depan di DAS Cisadane menggunakan Teknik Statistical Downscaling pada Luaran Model Iklim Global (GCM)
Abstrak: The changes of pattern and duration of the rainy season due to climate change affect water availability for agriculture sector, particularly in the Cisadane watersheds. Climate change projections particularly on local scale rainfall in the region are greatly needed. In this case the output of Global Circulation Model (GCM) can be used to project the local scale rainfall by using downscaling techniques. The result showed that the downscaling models developed by using simple regression analysis has a relatively small determination and correlation coefficients respectively ranging from 0 to 0.13 and from –0.183 to 0.366. In order to obtain better results, Principle Component Analysis (PCA) was used to transform and reduce the variables from the GCM outputs namely CSIRO, GFDL, and CGCM3. Six principle component (PC1-PC6) were selected from each GCM data, and were then used to build multi-linear models with observation data. This analysis is called principal component regression (PCR). It is found that PCR reproduced better results for almost all GCMs in comparison with the simple regression results. This study indicates that CSIRO produces better downscaling model compared to other GCMs used in this study. This can be seen from the highest coefficient of determination (0.533) and correlation (0.73) on Citeko Station resulted by the model, which was followed by CGCM3 and GFDL at the same station. Model validation using root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation showed that the resulted downscaling models based on PCR are significant at 95% confidence level. Future projections on each GCM based on the average of all stations showed an increase in mean rainfall values compared to the baseline data, where the highest percentage of increase (around 21.63%) was found in CGCM3. Meanwhile, based on the average of all GCMs, Station Citeko was projected to have the highest increase in future rainfall (11.6%). The average percentage of all increases between current and future rainfall is 9.04%. If seperated based on season, each model showed an increase of mean rainfall value during wet season and a decrease during dry season, except for CGCM3.
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Judul: Pemodelan Curah Hujan Bulanan dengan Teknik Statistical Downscaling melalui Pemodelan Dua Tahap
Abstrak: Perubahan iklim dan dampaknya terhadap ketersediaan air telah lama menjadi perhatian di bidang hidrologi. Pengelolaan dan perencanaan sumber daya air semakin dibutuhkan dengan menggabungkan pengaruh variasi iklim global dan ketersediaan air untuk memprediksi persediaan air di masa depan. Global circulation models (GCM) menyediakan data simulasi dari parameter iklim pada skala global, tetapi tidak dapat menghasilkan data parameter iklim skala lokal seperti pada pos hujan pengamatan klimatologi. Teknik statistical downscaling (SD) digunakan untuk memprediksi data parameter iklim berskala lokal menggunakan model statistik dengan memanfaatkan parameter-parameter iklim global yang diperoleh dari data luaran GCM, kemudian dihubungkan secara fungsional dengan parameter-parameter iklim lokal seperti curah hujan. Provinsi Jawa Barat adalah salah satu wilayah di Indonesia dengan intensitas curah hujan yang tinggi dan sulit untuk diprediksi. Intensitas curah hujan akan berbeda-beda di setiap waktunya, pada saat musim hujan atau cuaca ekstrim intensitas curah hujan akan cenderung tinggi, begitu juga sebaliknya. Hal ini menandakan adanya kelompok intensitas curah hujan untuk daerah dan waktu tertentu, sehingga model yang dihasilkan untuk setiap kelompok bisa berbeda. penelitian ini melakukan pemodelan dua tahap untuk menduga curah hujan pada 4 pos hujan di Jawa Barat, yaitu Bogor, Bandung, Jatiwangi, dan Citeko. Tahap pemodelan pertama adalah pemodelan klasifikasi menggunakan regresi logistik ordinal untuk menduga kelompok curah hujan lokal berdasarkan kuartilnya yang dihubungkan dengan output GCM. Variabel yang digunakan dalam tahapan ini adalah nilai komponen utama data Climate Forecast System (CFS) dengan kelompok curah hujan lokal berdasarkan kuartilnya.Pemodelan tahap dua dilakukan untuk menduga curah hujan dari masing-masing kelompok curah hujan lokal menggunakan Regresi Komponen Utama (RKU) dan Regresi Kuadrat Terkecil Parsial (RKTP). Pemodelan dua tahap menggunakan metode RKU dan RKTP memberikan nilai RMSEP lebih baik dibandingkan pendugaan menggunakan seluruh data untuk stasiun geofisika Bandung, Jatiwangi dan Citeko, sedangkan RMSEP yang dihasilkan untuk pos hujan Bogor lebih besar dibandingkan dengan penggunaan RKU dan RKTP tanpa pengelompokan, sehingga pemodelan 2 tahap menggunakan regresi logistik ordinal belum mampu untuk menduga curah hujan pada pos hujan Bogor.
Keyword: Regresi logistik ordinal, regresi kuadrat terkecil parsial, regresi komponen utama, statistical downscaling

Judul: Studi Kasus Liver Neoplasia pada Anjing Shih Tzu
Abstrak: Liver neoplasia is the excessive and uncontrolled replication of hepatocytes that forms nodules visible in ultrasonography. The purpose of this study is to study and discuss the characteristic, diagnosis and treatment of liver neoplasm through the interpretation of ultrasonography and hematology in a Shih Tzu dog. Ultrasonography is conducted with a Chison Q8 ultrasound machine with a 5 to 7 MHz frequency convex probe on lateral recumbency. The blood cells, liver enzymes and nodules sizes were the main parameters in this study. The results in the period of three years from 2021 to 2023 were interpreted and supported with secondary data sources. The Shih Tzu dog is 14 years old in the year 2023 with a body weight of 5.21kg. No obvious clinical signs were observed during previous examinations. However, lethargy, vomiting and anorexia were recorded in its latest examination. Thrombocytosis, granulocytosis, high liver enzymes and hypoglycemia, which are some of the neoplastic clinical manifestations were also presented by this patient. Besides, liver neoplasm, spleen neoplasm and biliary sludge were the sonogram findings of this patient. The liver and spleen neoplasm was observed stable, while the biliary sludge volume fluctuated. The treatment strategy recorded is Ondansetron, Samylin®, Ornipural and Ursodeoxycholic acid.
Keyword: Blood biochemistry profile, Hematology, Liver Neoplasia, Shih Tzu, Ultrasonography