Judul: The impact of beef self-sufficiency policy on economic performance of livestock subsector in Indonesia
Abstrak: Beef cattle have a strategic role in the Indonesian economy. In addition to its contribution to GDP and employment in the livestock sub-sector, the beef is also one source of animal protein. Beef consumption tends to increase over time. However, the growth of domestic beef production is slower than the growth in consumption. This has led to the increasing import. In this regard, the government has set self-sufficiency policy to encourage the growth of beef cattle and beef production. This study is aimed to: 1) analyze the impact of beef self-sufficiency policies on national beef production and performance in livestock subsector, 2) evaluate the impact of beef self-sufficiency policies on producer and consumer welfare in Indonesia and foreign exchange savings, and 3) forecasting production and demand for beef within the framework of achieving beef self-sufficiency in Indonesia. This study used econometric model with simultaneous equations and utilized time series data from 1990 – 2011 periods. Based on order condition criteria, this model is over identified. Parameter estimation used Two Stages Least Squares method. Simulation results showed that technological improvements through increasing doses of Artificial Insemination (AI), increased breeder cattle imports, and the subsidies policy of interest rate on bank loans will encourage beef cattle production and domestic beef production as well as lower import feeder cattle and beef imports. Increased beef cattle production will encourage GDP and employment in the livestock subsector. Import restrictions policy on feeder cattle and beef will increase domestic beef production but reduce the population and beef cattle production, resulting in lower GDP and employment in the livestock subsector. Combination of policies in order to achieve beef self-sufficiency will increase the social welfare and save foreign exchange. Combination policies have not been able to achieve beef self-sufficiency in Indonesia in 2014. Indonesia is expected to achieve beef self-sufficiency in 2021. Gradually imports restrictions on feeder cattle and beef and was followed by an increase in technology and the provision of breeder cattle have positive impact on the beef industry and livestock sector and the achievement of beef self-sufficiency in Indonesia.
Keyword: beef, performance of livestock subsector, self-sufficiency, welfare

Judul: Impact of Asean Australia and New Zealand free trade agreement on beef  industry  in Indonesia
Abstrak: Persistent increase in income and population and change in food consumption in Indonesia has led to considerable increase in food demand such as vegetables, fruits, sugar, beef, dairy products, poultry and seafood. As the result, there has been increasing imports of some of these products to meet their domestic demand. In particular, roughly 30 percent of national beef demand is met by imports of beef and beef cattle largely from Australia and New Zealand. For the past years Government of Indonesia has implemented several policies to protect domestic beef farmers so that domestic beef production can increase and reduce dependence on imports. One of such policies is imposition of beef import tariff. Nonetheless, with several free trade agreements that Indonesia has been participating in, such as ASEAN, Australia and New Zealand Free Trade Agreement (AANZFTA), those efforts will cease. Every year more than 90 percent of Indonesian beef imports come from Australia and New Zealand. Involvement of Indonesia in AANZFTA may have negative effects on beef industry when beef import tariffs are phased out in 2020. Hence, the objectives of this study are (1) to evaluate the impact of tariff removal on production, consumption, domestic price and import of beef, (2) to evaluate impact of free trade agreement on beef producer and consumer surpluses and (3) to propose alternative policies that can be implemented to increase domestic beef production. In this study, yearly time series data from 1990 to 2008 was used and analysed with econometric model. The model consists of eight structural equations and four identity equations. Parameters were estimated with Two Stage Least Squares method. Several policy alternatives were simulated which include single policies and their combinations: (1) removal of beef import tariffs for beef imports from Australia and New Zealand, (2) reducing interest rate, (3) increasing number of imported breeding cattle, (4) increase artificial insemination technology, (5) combination of reducing interest rate, increasing imported breeding cattle and increasing artificial insemination technology, (6) increasing import tariffs for beef imports from Australia and New Zealand, (7) combination of reducing interest rate, increasing imported breeding cattle, increasing artificial insemination technology and increasing import tariff, (8) combination of reducing interest rate, increasing imported breeding cattle, increasing artificial insemination technology and removal of beef import tariffs for imports from Australia and New Zealand, (9) reduction of beef imports from Australia, New Zealand, rest of the world and imported feeder cattle by 90 percent each, (10) combination of reduction of beef imports from Australia, New Zealand, rest of the world and imported feeder cattle by 90 percent each, reducing interest rate, increasing number of imported breeding cattle and increasing artificial insemination technology, and (11) combination of interest rate reduction, increasing import beef tariffs for imports from Australia and New Zealand, artificial insemination technology and number of imported breeding cattle. Simulation results revealed that removal of beef import tariff will increase beef import, increase domestic beef supply, leading to reduction in domestic beef price hence, increased beef demand. However, domestic beef production does not decrease drastically. The free trade agreement will increase consumers’ surplus and reduce
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Judul: Hamiltonian formulation for linear waves motion in two layers fluid
Abstrak: The surface wave could be considered as a wave that separates two fluids, namely water and air. Based on this assumption, it is introduced the interfacial wave, a wave between two layers of fluid with different density. The formulation of interfacial waves motion begins with deriving the base equation of irrotational ideal fluid. Furthermore, according to irrotational fluid assumption, the base equation can be stated in velocity potential. In this derivation, the fluids domain is assumed to be restricted by rigid lid boundary conditions, both at the upper and lower limit. Therefore, the interfacial waves motion can be explained in a hamiltonian formulation. In the hamiltonian formulation, total energy is defined as the sum of kinetic and potential energy. The hamiltonian system is obtained from reduction of kinetic energy by using the Dirichlet Neumann Operator. The resulted kinetic energy equation is nonlinear. Therefore, this form is linearized by first part of the Taylor expansion. This linearization gives a dispersion relation of linear wave. Based on this dispersion relation, the phase speed of the linear wave depends on the density ratio of the two layers fluid.
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