Judul: Design of intelligence system for tapioca agroindustry development strategy with Chaos theory approach
Abstrak: Chaos could occur anytime in agriculture sector, and that some occurences will be predictable and some will not, so it needs early warning system that could detect early chaotic conditions and take action for crisis recovery. Tapioca agro-industry turbulence condition was characterized by decreasing ability of the industry in production and business functions. Tapioca price and material supply was identified as key crisis factors in tapioca small scale agroindustry. This research was aimed to design early warning system for tapioca agroindustry. The expert management system was established as controlling tools through formulating policies for managing crisis due to chaotic situation. The output of this research was computer program, called “Simak-Chaotica” which consists of submodels: 1) the chaos existence test, 2) predictions in chaos key factor, 3) crisis signal analysis, and 4) crisis control policy Chaotic investigation with chaos theory approach for tapioca price and raw material supply identified by positive Lyapunov exponent and fractal dimension. Fractal dimension could determine another chaos component, embedding dimension to be considered as information about how many time lags were involed in Artificial Neural Network (ANN) forecasting. In the case study Lyapunov exponent value for the price of tapioca and raw material supply, respectively, were 0.1119 bits / week and 0.15656 bits / week. These properties indicate that the tapioca price and raw material supplies could not be predicted in the long term. Ttapioca price could be predicted within a period of 1 / 0, 1119 = 8.89728 approximately in 9 weeks, and the raw material supply in a period of 1 / 0, 15 656 = 6.34942 approximately in 6 weeks. Fractal dimension for the tapioca price was 1.05075 and 1.59616 for the raw material supply. Crisis signal analysis submodel was set up with threshold analysis, and supplemented with control management procedure. When tapioca price or raw material supply was evaluated at crisis level, then status alert would be presented as “Siaga”, “Waspada”, or “Bahaya”. Strategy and policy alternatives were formulated by Issue Management Technology (IMT) and OWA. Rule base was used to select policy alternatives for chaotic management. Agroindustry will cooperative body will ensure the long term cassava business resistance to the crisis. It was community based institution that relies on social cohesion and collective efficiency.
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Judul: A design model of crisis management simulation in an agroindustry enterprise.
Abstrak: In the industry, crisis is often defined as a sudden big trouble threatening the achievement of the organization’s central goals- profits, growth and survival, or endangers its reputation. This research aims to develop a crisis management model for agroindustry using an integrated expert system or knowledge based system, economics analysis and fuzzy logic. The model, CrismanSoft (crises management software), detects impacts and probabilities of internal crises, provides early warnings and recommendations to solve the crises. This research is limited to the core crises within the agroindustry companies which related to the exploitation to change risks into profits. Core crises include the crisis caused by labor strikes, permits revocation, and shortages of raw materials, which happen because of technological failures, confrontation or conflicts, malevolence or terror, managerial failures and other threats to the company. The scope of this research is internal crises in an agroindustry caused by raw material and product, technological, social or financial failures.
Keyword: Crisis management, Decision Support System, Early warning, Expert system, Fuzzy, Metoda peramalan, Gaussian, Polinomial, Eksponensial, Fourier, Artificial intelligence, Metoda penilain kelayakan usaha

Judul: Karakteristik Suara Song Burung Kenari (Serinus canaria) Postur Besar dan Kecil.
Abstrak: Burung kenari (Serinus canaria) memiliki nyanyian yang sangat bervariasi dengan durasi yang panjang dan merupakan tipe burung bernyanyi open learners. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis karakteristik suara song burung kenari (Serinus canaria). Penelitian dilakukan pada bulan April sampai Juni 2017 di Bogor, Jawa Barat. Perekaman suara song terhadap 12 ekor burung kenari jantan dilakukan dengan menggunakan mikrofon Sennheiser ME66 dan alat perekam Sony PCM-D50. Burung kenari yang digunakan merupakan burung yang pernah mengikuti kontes burung kicau dan memiliki predikat juara kontes burung. Amplitudo, durasi suara, frekuensi, dan volume suara burung dianalisis dengan menggunakan software Raven Pro 1.4. Data tersebut selanjutnya dianalisis deskriptif. Hasil analisis suara menunjukkan bahwa burung kenari memiliki banyak syllable, suara song rapat dan tidak terputus-putus, tempo yang cepat, dan adanya pengulangan suku kata pada setiap suara song. Burung kenari postur kecil memiliki rataan durasi lebih panjang dibandingkan dengan kenari postur besar, tetapi burung kenari besar memiliki rataan max amplitudo, average power, max power, min amplitudo, peak amplitudo, dan peak frekuensi.
Keyword: karakteristik suara (song), kenari, syllable