Judul: Volatility Analysis and Forecasting of Indonesian Sanitary  Paper Export Prices for the Period 2006–2023
Abstrak: Indonesia merupakan pengekspor kertas sanitasi yang unggul di dunia. Kegiatan ekspor kertas sanitasi dalam jumlah yang tinggi dapat mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi negara. Namun, keseimbangan antara permintaan dan penawaran seringkali tidak tercapai, sehingga berdampak pada terjadinya fluktuasi harga di pasar. Fluktuasi harga tersebut menjadi faktor utama terjadinya volatilitas harga ekspor kertas sanitasi. Jika volatilitas yang terjadi sangat tinggi, akan ada risiko yang harus dihadapi, utamanya oleh penjual. Volatilitas yang tinggi menyebabkan harga sulit untuk diprediksi, sehingga tidak ada kepastian harga di masa depan. Kondisi tersebut akan mengganggu kegiatan ekspor, sehingga perlu adanya langkah antisipasi berupa pembuatan kebijakan oleh pemerintah yang mengacu pada peramalan harga ekspor. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa, meskipun harga ekspor mengalami fluktuasi selama periode 2006–2023, tetapi fluktuasi tersebut tidak menunjukkan adanya clustering volatility. Di samping itu, hasil peramalan harga ekspor dengan model ARIMA (2,1,2) menghasilkan model peramalan yang cenderung mendekati harga ekspor sesungguhnya, sehingga dapat dikatakan bahwa model ARIMA (2,1,2) baik digunakan untuk meramal harga ekspor kertas sanitasi., Indonesia is the top sanitary paper exporter in the world. A high volume of sanitary paper exports can boost the country's economic growth. However, the balance between demand and supply is often not achieved, resulting in price fluctuations in the market. These price fluctuations are a primary factor in sanitary paper export price volatility. If the volatility is over the top, there will be risks that must be faced, especially by sellers. High volatility makes prices hard to predict, so there is no certainty of future prices. This condition will disrupt export activities, so there is a need for anticipatory steps in the form of policy-making by the government that refers to export price forecasting. The analysis results show that, although export prices fluctuated during 2006–2023, the fluctuations did not show any clustering volatility. In addition, the results of export price forecasting with the ARIMA (2,1,2) model produce a forecasting model that tends to be close to the actual export price, so it can be stated that the ARIMA (2,1,2) model is well used to forecast the export price of sanitary paper.
Keyword: ARIMA, export price, sanitary paper, forecasting, volatility

Judul: Estimation of Indonesia's Printing and Writing Paper Export Demand Function
Abstrak: Permintaan printing and writing paper dunia terus menurun dengan berkembangnya teknologi informasi. Walaupun permintaan dunia berkurang, printing and writing paper masih menjadi produk ekspor kertas utama Indonesia. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengestimasi fungsi permintaan ekspor printing and writing paper Indonesia. Estimasi dilakukan dengan teknik Panel data analysis menggunakan data dari 30 negara tujuan ekspor untuk periode tahun 2009—2019. Tiga model data panel diinvestigasi: pooled, fixed effect, dan random effect; dan kemudian dibandingkan dengan menggunakan uji Chow, Breusch-Pagan, dan Hausman. Hasil estimasi awal menunjukkan adanya autokorelasi dan heteroskedastisitas. Koreksi berhasil dilakukan untuk model pooled dan fixed effect, tetapi model random effect masih memiliki autokorelasi. Hasil uji Chow dan Breusch-Pagan menolak pooled sebagai model yang lebih baik. Hasil uji Hausman menunjukkan model fixed effect adalah model terbaik dengan elastisitas harga sebesar -0.94 dan elastisitas pendapatan sebesar 1.09 serta nilai R2 sebesar 0.96., Demand for printing and writing paper in the world is decreasing as information technology grows. Despite a decrease in world’s demand, the printing and writing paper is still the primary paper export products of Indonesia. This study aims to estimate Indonesia’s printing and writing paper export demand function. Estimation was done using panel data analysis technique with data from 30 export partner countries for the period 2009—2019. Three panel data models were investigated: pooled, fixed effect, and random effect models; and then compared using Chow, Breusch-Pagan, and Hausman tests. Results detected heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation. After correction, pooled and fixed effect models were suitable, but random effect model still had autocorrelation. Chow and Breusch-Pagan tests rejected pooled model as the best model. Hausman test indicated fixed effect model was the best model with price elasticity of -0.94, income elasticity of 1.09, and R2 value of 0.96.
Keyword: panel data, fixed effect model, random effect model, pooled model, paper products

Judul: Penyusunan Overlap Graph menggunakan Suffix Tree pada DNA Sequence
Abstrak: The DNA sequence assembly is very important in genome analysis. This step aims to reconstruct contigous DNA fragment (contigs) from short fragment by concatenating fragments based on the overlap region among them. This method employs overlap graph for solving the problems. In this graph, nodes represent fragments and edges represent overlap. This research developed a software for constructing overlap graph using suffix tree. The evaluation was conducted by measuring the number of nodes, number of edges, and the execution time in many values of minimum overlap. The minimum overlap is defined as the minimum length of substring which is considered as the overlap region between two fragments. The evaluation results showed that the number of nodes, the number of edges, and the execution time were increased with the decreasing of the minimum overlap value.
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