Judul: Climate Change Projection based on Regional Climate Model’s Output (Case study: Indramayu Regency and Pacitan Regency)
Abstrak: Climate change projection study in regional scale can be done by using regional climate model, one of them is by using Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3). RegCM3 has a wide range of adjustable parameters that can be set in order to obtain the simulation results that fit to the observed climatic conditions of the studied regions. One of the adjustable parameters available in the model is related to the use of cloud/convective parameterization schemes. In this study, two convective schemes were assessed for the studied regions, i.e. Grell and MIT-emanuel convective schemes. Based on the analysis of both schemes, it was shown that the MIT-Emanuel convective scheme can deliver better results in simulating seasonal rainfall pattern in the studied regions, i.e. in Indramayu and Pacitan. Nevertheless, the MIT-emanuel scheme tends to reproduce overestimate rainfall compared to the observation, resulting systematic biases that require corrections by using correction factors. In this research, the study of climate change projections was conducted based on SRES A1B emissions scenario, which describes the balance of the use of fossil and non-fossil energy in the future. Model results showed that the rainfall were projected to change relative to current baseline from -43.81 to 34.02% in the district of Indramayu, and from -37.95 to 45.25% in the district of Pacitan. The mean air temperatures were also projected to increase from 0.43 to 2.94 0C for Indramayu and from 0.48 to 2.55 0C for Pacitan. Analysis in the change of extreme rainfall showed that the probability or the frequency of extreme rainfall will increase in Pacitan, while remain relatively constant in Indramayu.
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Judul: Pemanfaatan luaran RegCM3 untuk kajian dampak perubahan iklim terhadap perubahan waktu dan pola tanam padi di Jawa Barat
Abstrak: Climate change could be indicated by the shifting in the patterns of climate variables, such as air temperature and rainfall in the long term. The changes of those two variables could affect water balance, which will impact agricultural management systems, especially related to planting time and cropping patterns. This research aims to study future climate change projections and their impact on the changing of planting time and cropping patterns in West Java. The analysis is based on the Thornhtwaite Mather water balance model calculated by using climate data from the output of regional climate model, namely RegCM3. The RegCM3 output shows a rainfall decrease in West Java ranging from 4.53% to 8.16%. The changes of rainfall pattern in the future are projected to increase during wet seasons and will decrease during transitional and dry seasons, with shorter rainfall peak of wet seasons and longer peak of dry seasons. The temperature in West Java is also projected to change in the future showed by a very significant increase compared to the reference period. Based on the observational data, the temperature trends in the region has showed an increase, ranging from 0.0174 °C/year to 0.0216 °C/year during 1985-1999 periods. Water balance are analyzed on three different areas in West Java based on the rainfall patterns defined by cluster analysis (cluster C1, C2, and C3). C1 rainfall pattern is a region with low rainfall, C2 with medium rainfall, and C3 with high rainfall. Based on the calculation of water balance in the future under SRES A1B scenario, it is shown that the planting time will be potentially delayed from 40 to 51 days especially in C1 and C2 regions, while there is no change of planting time in C3 region. In addition, the cropping pattern will also change in the future due to the change in water balance. Initial determination of growing season will experience a setback, which ranges from one to two of ten days period in C1 and C2 region with cropping patterns changing from paddy-paddy-fallow to paddy-fallow-fallow in C2 region.
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Judul: Trichomonas Gallinae Penyebab Trichomonosis Pada Unggas
Abstrak: Trichomonas gallinae adalah protozoa yang bergerak aktof dengan keempat flagella yang mempunyai layar dan pada salah satu sisinya terdapat membran seperti sirip ikan yang berombak. Spesies dari genus Trichomonas ini mempunyai arti penting pada unggas, karena dapat menyebabkan infeksi pada alat pencernaan bagian atas.
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