Judul: Competitiveness Analysis and Factors Affecting Indonesia and Vietnam Coffee Export in ASEAN 5
Abstrak: Selama 14 tahun terakhir, ekspor kopi Indonesia dan Vietnam terus mengalami pertumbuhan khususnya pada jenis kopi HS 090111 (Coffee, not roasted, not decaffeinated) ke pasar ASEAN 5. Pertumbuhan tersebut didasari pada terus meningkatnya kuantitas serta nilai ekspor kopi Indonesia dan juga Vietnam dalam beberapa tahun terakhir. Untuk melihat sejauh mana ekspor kopi Indonesia dan Vietnam mampu berdaya saing di ASEAN 5, dilakukan analisis RCA (Revealed Comparative Advantage), untuk mengetahui atau mengidentifikasi daya saing suatu produk serta untuk mengetahui apakah suatu produk dalam performa yang dinamis atau tidak digunakan alat analisis EPD (Export Product Dynamics) dan untuk mengidentifikasi faktor-faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap ekspor kopi Indonesia dan Vietnam di ASEAN digunakan regresi panel., Last 14 years ago, Indonesian and Vietnam coffee export continued to grow especially on the type of coffee with HS number 090111 (Coffee, not roasted, not decaffeinated) to ASEAN 5 market. The growth based on increasing of number in quantity and number in coffee export by Indonesia and Vietnam in recent years. Holding of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) in early 2016 was to stimulate coffee exporters such as Indonesia that was able to maintain the quantity of its exports to ASEAN 5 and necessitating an analysis related to the competitiveness of Indonesian coffee products in the ASEAN markets 5. Whereas, in order to evaluate the Indonesia and Vietnam coffee export in ASEAN 5 market, RCA (Revealed Comparative Advantage) analysis used, to identify product in a dynamic performance, EPD (Export Product Dynamics) analysis is used and to identify factors affecting Indonesian and Vietnam Coffee Export in ASEAN 5 market used panel regression.
Keyword: competitiveness, export product dynamics, panel regression, revealed comparative advantage

Judul: Competitiveness Analysis and Affecting Factors of Indonesian Coffee Exports in the ASEAN Market
Abstrak: Kopi merupakan komoditas ekspor utama dan merupakan salah satu penghasil devisa terbesar dari sektor pertanian Indonesia. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis daya saing dan faktor yang memengaruhi ekspor serta memproyeksikan ekspor kopi Indonesia di kawasan ASEAN tahun 2021-2025. Metode yang digunakan yaitu Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Export Product Dynamic (EPD), Rasio Akselerasi (RA), ARIMA, dan Gravity Model. Hasil RCA menunjukkan kopi Indonesia memiliki keunggulan komparatif di Kawasan ASEAN. Analisis EPD menunjukkan bahwa Indonesia hanya berdaya saing di negara Thailand dan Filipina, sedangkan Malaysia dan Singapura berada pada posisi retreat dan falling star. Berdasarkan analisis RA, Indonesia dapat merebut pasar ekspor kopi di kawasan ASEAN. Perkembangan ekspor kopi dipengaruhi oleh beberapa faktor. Hasil uji T menunjukkan bahwa GDP riil Indonesia, GDP riil pengimpor, jarak ekonomi, harga ekspor Indonesia memiliki pengaruh secara signifikan terhadap ekspor kopi Indonesia di kawasan ASEAN. Variabel populasi pengimpor memiliki pengaruh yang positif namun tidak signifikan terhadap volume ekspor kopi Indonesia di kawasan ASEAN. Hasil proyeksi juga menunjukkan bahwa pada tahun 2021- 2025, ekspor kopi Indonesia akan memiliki pertumbuhan yang positif, Coffee is one of the leading export commodities and the largest foreign exchange contributor from the Indonesian agricultural sector. This study aims to analyze competitiveness and the affecting factors of coffee exports and forecast the Indonesia's coffee exports in the ASEAN market in 2021-2025. The methods used are Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Export Product Dynamic (EPD), Acceleration Ratio (AR), ARIMA, and Gravity Model. The RCA results show that Indonesian coffee has a comparative advantage in the ASEAN Region. EPD analysis shows that Indonesia is only competitive in Thailand and the Philippines, while Malaysia and Singapore are in a retreat and falling star position. Based on RA's analysis, Indonesia can seize the coffee export market in the ASEAN region. The development of coffee exports is influenced by several factors. The result of T-test shows that the Indonesia's real GDP, importers' real GDP, economic distance, Indonesia's export prices have a significant effect on the volume of Indonesia’s coffee export in the ASEAN region. The importing population has no significant effect to the volume of Indonesia’s coffee export in the ASEAN region. The forecasting results also show that in 2021-2025, Indonesia's coffee exports will have positive growth in the ASEAN Region.
Keyword: AR, ARIMA, EPD, Gravity Model, and RCA

Judul: Approximation of the Median of Poisson Distribution Using the Relation of Poisson-Gamma Distribution
Abstrak: A major drawback of median is that median cannot usually be defined in closed form, even in the cases where their distribution functions are known. This study gives an approximation of the closed form for the median of the Poisson distribution by using the relation of Poisson-Gamma distribution. The approximation uses elementary techniques based on the monotonicity of certain sequences involving tail probabilities of the Poisson distribution and the Central Limit Theorem. Furthermore, a closed form expression for the mean absolute deviation 􀜧|􀜰􀰒 􀵆 􀜯􀝁􀝀􁈺􀜰􀰒􁈻| is also studied. The median is relevant because of the fact that it minimizes the mean absolute deviation of a Poisson random variable (􀜰􀰒􁈻 by considering median as central tendency.
Keyword: