Judul: Comparison of The Performance of Regression Model, XGBoost, and RNN on Time Series Data (Case Study of Poverty at The District/City Level)
Abstrak: Analisis data deret waktu telah banyak digunakan di berbagai bidang dan umumnya menggunakan satu peubah atau dikenal dengan analisis univariat. Kelemahan analisis ini adalah tidak dapat melihat pengaruh dari peubah lain. Permasalahan tersebut dapat diatasi menggunakan analisis multivariat. Kemiskinan merupakan permasalahan ekonomi yang dipengaruhi oleh beberapa faktor sehingga dapat menggunakan analisis multivariat. Penelitian ini bertujuan membandingkan performa model regresi, XGBoost, dan Recurrent Neural Network pada data tingkat kemiskinan di Kabupaten Purbalingga, Kabupaten Kudus, dan Kota Jakarta Barat. Data yang digunakan adalah tingkat kemiskinan, PDRB, upah minimum kabupaten/kota, rata-rata lama sekolah, tingkat pengangguran terbuka, tingkat partisipasi angkatan kerja, dan usia harapan hidup tahun 2010–2020. Hasil penelitian ini diperoleh bahwa model regresi masih baik dalam memprediksi tingkat kemiskinan pada data deret waktu tanpa pencilan. Namun, model regresi kurang cocok untuk data deret waktu yang memiliki pencilan. Metode yang lebih cocok digunakan pada data deret waktu dengan pencilan adalah metode machine learning. Metode machine learning juga lebih konsisten dalam menentukan peubah yang berkontribusi dalam prediksi. Peubah penting yang berkontribusi dalam memprediksi kemiskinan di tingkat kabupaten/kota yang dianalisis adalah PDRB., Time series data analysis has been widely used in various fields and is commonly known as univariate analysis, as it typically involves a single variable. The weakness of this analysis is its inability to account for the influence of other variables. This issue can be addressed through multivariate analysis. Poverty is an economic problem influenced by several factors, making it suitable for multivariate analysis. This research aims to compare the performance of Regression Model, XGBoost, and Recurrent Neural Network on poverty levels data in Purbalingga Regency, Kudus Regency, and West Jakarta City. The data used includes poverty levels, GRDP, district/city minimum wage, average years of schooling, open unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and life expectancy from 2010 to 2020. The results of this research indicate that the regression model is still effective in predicting poverty levels in time series data without outliers. However, regression model is less suitable for time series data that contains outliers. A method more suitable for time series data with outliers is machine learning. Machine learning methods are also more consistent in identifying variables contributing to predictions. An important variable contributing to poverty prediction at the district/city level in the analyzed data is GRDP.
Keyword: multivariate, poverty, recurrent neural network, regression, XGBoost

Judul: Pemodelan Regresi Terboboti Geografis dan Temporal pada Angka Kemiskinan di Jawa Tengah Tahun 2017-2019
Abstrak: Pada tahun 2019 Provinsi Jawa Tengah memiliki persentase penduduk miskin sebesar 10,8 persen. Persentase tersebut bertentangan dengan sasaran tingkat kemiskinan untuk Provinsi Jawa Tengah tahun 2019 yang ditetapkan oleh pemerintah yaitu sebesar 10,57 persen sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa pengentasan kemiskinan di Jawa Tengah masih merupakan permasalahan. Untuk menduga faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi kemiskinan di Jawa Tengah dapat digunakan metode regresi. Namun metode tersebut tidak mempertimbangkan keragaman spasial yang ada pada data. Untuk menganalisis keragaman spasial, dapat digunakan metode regresi terboboti geografis (RTG). Selain unsur spasial, unsur temporal juga dapat menyebabkan keragaman. Untuk mengakomodasi keragaman spasial-temporal, metode RTG dikembangkan menjadi metode regresi terboboti geografis dan temporal (RTGT) dengan cara menambahkan unsur temporal kedalamnya. Uji F yang dilakukan untuk menguji ketepatan model RTGT menghasilkan nilai-p 0,000897675 sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa terdapat signifikansi penggunaan model RTGT dibandingkan model regresi. Hasil pendugaan parameter model RTGT menujukkan bahwa tingkat pengangguran terbuka dan laju pertumbuhan PDRB memberikan pengaruh negatif dan positif, upah minimum kabupaten/kota dan rata-rata lama sekolah memberikan pengaruh negatif. Pengujian parsial parameter model RTGT menunjukkan bahwa pada kurun waktu 2017-2019 upah minimum kabupaten/kota, rata-rata lama sekolah, dan tingkat pengangguran terbuka berpengaruh nyata pada mayoritas kabupaten/kota, sedangkan laju pertumbuhan PDRB hanya berpengaruh nyata pada kabupaten/kota tertentu., In 2019, 10,8 percent population of Central Java Province live below poverty. This percentage is contrary to the poverty rate target for Central Java Province in 2019 set by the government, which is 10,57 percent, so it can be concluded that poverty alleviation in Central Java is still a problem. To analyze the factors that influence poverty in Central Java, the regression method can be used. However, this method does not consider the spatial heterogeneity in the data. To analyze spatial heterogeneity, geographically weighted regression (GWR) method can be used. In addition to spatial elements, temporal elements can also cause heterogeneity. To accommodate the spatial-temporal heterogeneity, the GWR method then developed into geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) method by adding temporal element into it. The F test which was carried out to test the goodness of fit of the GTWR model resulted in a p-value = 0,000897675 so it can be concluded that there is a significant use of the GTWR model compared to the regression model. The results of the parameters estimation of GTWR model show that open unemployment rate and GDRP growth rate have negative and positive effect, district/city minimum wage and mean years schooling have a negative effect. Partial testing of the parameters of the GTWR model shows that in 2017-2019, district/city minimum wage, mean years schooling, open unemployment rate have significant effect on the majority of districts/cities, while GDRP growth rate has significant effect only on a few districts/cities.
Keyword: kemiskinan, keragaman spasial-temporal, regresi terboboti geografis dan temporal (RTGT), geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR), poverty, spatial-temporal heterogeneity

Judul: Sintesis Flavon dari Fenol dan Benzoil Klorida
Abstrak: Flavone is a class of flavonoid, commonly found in plants with wide bioactivity spectrum. A widely used flavone synthesis route is through acidcatalyzed oxidative cyclization of β-diketone. In this study, unsubstituted flavone had been synthesized via 5-step from phenol, with 22% yield and successfully increased the yield of previous study on Fries rearrangement of phenyl acetate and benzoylation of o-HAP steps. Phenol was acetylated resulting 93% phenyl acetate. AlCl3-catalyzed Fries rearrangement in 1.5 hour and at 120 °C converted phenyl acetate into o-hydroxyacetophenone (o-HAP) with 40% yield. AlCl3 as catalyst produced o-HAP with higher and reproducible yield compared with BF3·Et2O and ZnCl2. Benzoylation of o-HAP followed by Baker-Venkataraman rearrangement of the ester product using KOH in dried pyridine produced β-diketone 1-(2- hydroxyphenyl)-3-phenylpropane-1,3-dione. The yield of ester and β-diketone were 71% and 85%, respectively. Finally, oxidative cyclization of β-diketone with sulphuric acid as catalyst produced 99% of flavone. The flavone product had been characterized spectroscopically and its melting point as well.
Keyword: