Judul: Pemodelan Hubungan Pelanggan dan Perusahaan Menggunakan Rantai Markov
Abstrak: Relationship between company and customers occurs due to marketing of the company products to customers and the transaction between customers and company. In the relationship between company and customers there is a term called recency which represents the number of months since the last transaction of a customer. Recency is assumed to form a Markov chain. Customer lifetime value (CLV) is a present value of future cash flow in customer lifetime transaction. CLV is used to determining the prospects of customer transactions in the future. The purpose of this manuscript is to model customer and company relations, to calculate customer lifetime value (CLV), and to apply the Markov chain model at the Oriflame company. Markov chain model is characterized by the number of states, transition probability matrix, and vector early probability. Through transaction data of the Oriflame customers, a transition probabilities matrix can be estimated using maximum likelihood method. CLV is calculated by Markov decision processes. The results shows that the relationship between the company and customers can be modeled with a Markov chain.
Keyword: recency, Markov chain, customer lifetime value

Judul: Pemodelan Transaksi Pelanggan Menggunakan Model Hidden Markov
Abstrak: A customer transaction is one of the activities needed to establish a market. This event may happen at any time in a long time series and may be repeated in the future. If the causes of customer transactions are assumed not to be observed directly and they form a Markov chain, then the customer transactions can be modeled by using the hidden Markov model. The hidden Markov model is characterized by some parameters of initial distribution, transition, and transactions. The parameters in this final assignment are estimated by using the Rabiner method, which consists of forward-backward, Viterbi, and Baum-Welch algorithms. The hidden Markov model for customer transactions is applied to transaction data of Anisa Cell’s cellular company. By using the transactions data, a computer program is created using Mathematica 7.0 and LINGO 11.0 to estimate the parameters of the hidden Markov model. The results show that the hidden Markov model can model the company’s transactions well. This can be seen from the estimation’s accuracy, which is above 96%.
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Judul: Habitat dan biologi burung walet sarang hitam (Collocalia maximaa) di Gua Way Nenok, Taman Nasional Bukit Barisan Selatan
Abstrak: Sarang burung walet dimanfaatkan sebagai makanan orang sejak pertengahan abad 14, yang pengambilannya banyak dilakukan di gua-gua alam. Sarang burung walet sarang putih (Collocalia fuciphaga) dan walet sarang hitam (Collocalia maxima) merupakan barang bernilai ekonomis yang telah diperdagangkan di dunia internasional, komoditi sarang burung dikenal dengan nama "bird's nest". Di Indonesia penelitian ilmiah mengenai walet sarang hitam belum banyak dilakukan. Penelitian dilaksanakan di Gua Way Nenok yang terletak di Taman Nasional Bukit Barisan Selatan. Waktu penelitian pada bulan Oktober-Nopember 1.997. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengumpulkan informasi dan pengetahuan mengenai kondisi habitat dan biologi walet sarang hitam (Collocalia maxima), khususnya kondisi fisik gua, perilaku, dan morfologi. Hasil dari penelitian diharapkan dapat memberikan masukan dalam pengelolaan gua sebagai penghasil sarang burung walet berdasarkan asas kelestarian hasil sarang dan kelestarian populasi burung walet. Burung walet sarang hitam secara keseluruhan berwarna coklat kehitaman, bulu pada bagian bawah tubuh berwarna coklat. Garis-garis putih terdapat pada lingkaran leher, dada, tungging dan pangkal ekor bagian bawah. Alis mata tebal menyerupai elang, ekor hampir tidak bercelah dan...
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