Judul: Impact of government spending on economic performance and poverty allevation in term of fiscal decentralization
Abstrak: The purposes of this study were to analyze the factors affecting the revenue and allocation of national budget and local government spending and its impact on the economy, flypaper effect, and to formulate policy recommendations in term of more effective and efficient government spending. This study used pooled data at the provincial level on period 2005-2010 and a simultaneous equations model applied to capture the behaviour of each variables. The results were: (1) potential local goverment revenue, fiscal need, and central government transfer were factors that determined the local goverment revenue, sharing revenue, and central government transfer, (2) flypaper effect occured on local expenditures, (3) decocentration funding and assistant task in agricultural sector had more affect on the growth of the agricultural sector, (4) sectoral budget allocation has a positive impact on the economic growth, employment, welfare and poverty allevation, especialy on Indonesia Easterm Regions and (5) The increased general fund allocation (DAU) had a greatest impact on fiscal performance and the regional economy (6) increase revenue-sharing and specific fund had positive impact on economic growth and reduce local government depedency on central government budget. Policy recommendations were: (1) enhancing the sources of local revenue potentially to be the alternative policy due to the fact that increased DAU provide the greatest impact to the regional economy, but will lead to increased dependency to the central government, then increasing revenue sharing may improve fiscal capacity and economic performance, (2) realocation of routine spending to development spending may improve economic performance, (3) designing the clearly authorities between central and local government on several sectors, including on the agricultural development that will be able to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of government spending, and (4) Future studies need to be done with the data at the district or town level, and separate spesific fund by sector.
Keyword: fiscal decentralization, deconcentration and assistance tasks, flypaper effect, regional economy.

Judul: Dampak kebijakan fiskal daerah terhadap kemiskinan di Indonesia pada masa desentralisasi fiskal
Abstrak: Local government spending has been increasing from year to year during decentralization era, which the largest proportion derives from central government. Nevertheles, the economic performance, mainly poverty decrease very slowly, far from the government target in 2009. Therefore, this research has aim 1) to determine the dynamic of local fiscal, output and poverty, 2) to determine factors that affect fiscal policy, output and poverty, 3) to analyze the impact of fiscal policy on output and poverty. This study uses simultaneous equations model (SEM) to identify the factors that affect local government revenues and spending and their impact on fiscal and economic performance of regions. The result shows that government revenue is affected by GDRP, fiscal gap, and population. Government spending is affected by GDRP, revenue, and spending the previous year. Increased government revenues and spending has a positive impact on economic performance and negatif impact on poverty. Combination of spending on education and health, and agriculture provides the greatest impact to decrease poverty.
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Judul: Pemodelan Selang Kelahiran Anak Pertama
Abstrak: Seiang kelahiran anak pertam3 mcrupakan jarak waktu dari umur pcrkawinan pcrtama pada \Vanila sampai umur kclahiran anak pertama. Selang kelahiran anak pertama dapal digunakan scbagai penduga kesuburan \Vanila karena pada umumnya pasangan suami islri yang bam menikah tidak menunda kelahiran anak pertama
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