Judul: Prediksi Cadangan Klaim Asuransi Dengan Metode Bornhuetter-Ferguson
Abstrak: Penyelesaian pembayaran klaim biasanya dilakukan oleh perusahaan asuransi setelah klaim dilaporkan. Namun pada beberapa jenis asuransi dalam penyelesaiannya membutuhkan waktu yang lama atau menunda pembayarannya hingga periode tertentu. Oleh karena itu, perusahaan asuransi harus menyiapkan dana untuk membayar klaim-klaim yang belum terselesaikan tersebut. Dana tersebut disebut cadangan klaim. Perkiraan cadangan klaim bagi perusahaan asuransi sangat penting. Apabila perkiraan cadangan klaim kurang baik dapat berakibat kerugian bagi perusahaan asuransi. Umumnya perkiraan cadangan klaim didasarkan pada data run-off triangle. Data run-off triangle memuat gambaran klaim keseluruhan dan merupakan ringkasan dari suatu data set klaim-klaim individu. Metode yang populer digunakan untuk menduga cadangan klaim adalah metode Chain Ladder. Metode Bornhuetter-Ferguson merupakan gabungan bentuk dari metode Chain Ladder dan metode Loss Ratio. Dalam karya ilmiah ini dijelaskan metode Bornhuetter-Ferguson untuk memprediksi besarnya cadangan klaim dan hasilnya dibandingkan dengan metode Chain Ladder.
Keyword: cadangan klaim, data run-off triangle, metode Bornhuetter-Ferguson

Judul: Prediksi Cadangan Klaim Agregat Asuransi Umum dengan Metode Bornhuetter-Ferguson Menggunakan Akurasi MAPE dan RMSPE
Abstrak: Perusahaan asuransi melakukan pembayaran klaim ketika klaim dilaporkan. Penyelesaian untuk klaim dapat dibayarkan pada tahun yang sama dengan tahun pelaporan atau diperpanjang hingga beberapa tahun pengembangan. Untuk dapat memenuhi pembayaran klaim, perusahaan asuransi memiliki kewajiban untuk memperkirakan dengan tepat jumlah cadangan klaim yang harus disiapkan. Run-off triangle sering digunakan untuk menerapkan berbagai metode penghitungan cadangan klaim, salah satunya metode Bornhuetter-Ferguson. Dalam karya ilmiah ini, dibahas mengenai penghitungan cadangan klaim secara agregat untuk produk asuransi umum menggunakan metode Bornhuetter-Ferguson. Cadangan klaim merupakan nilai estimasi dari pembayaran klaim di masa depan, yang mana terdapat perbedaan antara nilai estimasi dan aktual dari pembayaran klaim. Untuk mengidentifikasi keakuratan metode Bornhuetter-Ferguson dalam memprediksi nilai cadangan klaim agregat dari data asuransi umum, digunakan ukuran akurasi Mean Average Percentage Error dan Root Mean Square Percentage Error., Insurance companies carry out claim payments when claims are reported. The claim settlement can be paid in the same year as the reporting year or extended for several development years. For fulfilling claim payments, insurance companies have an obligation to predict accurately the amount of claim reserves to be prepared. The run-off triangle is frequently used to apply various methods of claim reserves calculation, one of which is Bornhuetter-Ferguson method. This scientific report discusses aggregate claim reserves calculation for general insurance products using Bornhuetter-Ferguson method. The claim reserve is the estimated of future claim payment, which has a difference between the estimated and actual value of claim payment. For identifying the accuracy of the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method to predict the aggregate claim reserve of general insurance data, the Mean Average Percentage Error and Root Mean Square Percentage Error are used.
Keyword: aggregate claim reserves, Mean Average Percentage Error, Bornhuetter-Ferguson method, Root Mean Square Percentage Error, run-off triangle

Judul: Phylogeography and Species Limits in the Papuan White Snake (Micropechis ikaheka) (Reptilia: Serpentes: Elapidae)
Abstrak: Papua white snake, Micropechis ikaheka, has been distingushed into two subspecies M.i. ikaheka and M.i. fasciatus. However, due to lack of data on their morphology, distribution and ecology, both subspecies often ignored in scintific discussions and refers only byas , Micropechis ikaheka. This study was designed to document the differences between M.i. ikaheka and M.i fasciatus by using scales characteristics and reproductive organ or hemipenes. The study also examine, zoogeography, habitat, diet and cannibalism of both subspecies to better understanding the the ecology of one of the most venomous snakes in the world. This study consists of three topics with method and also different in the size samples, respectively. The first study is the histology and microtopography of the skin were studied using paraffin method and Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM). The second is the hemipenis were examined by following Myers and Cadle (2003), and Zaher and Prudente (2003). The third is the abdominal surgery was carried out to document diet type and the investigate phenomenon of cannibalism in the snake. Specimens for this study came from the collection from Museum Zoologicum Bogoriense (MZB) and Universitas Negeri Papua’s Laboratory (LZU). The research result also indicated that the markers of skin and hemipenis described the same structure and microornamentation in all M. ikaheka groups being compared. Based specimens examined morphological descriptions do not s support the further differentiation in Micropechis. In short, two markers that used in this study could not sufficiently indicate the differences in the level of species and subspecies of M. ikaheka. The study, however, were able to delineate zoogeography and skin color patterns, which fall into four groups: M. i. ikaheka; M. i. fasciatus. M. i. ssp. “intermediate”; and M. i. ssp “black”. This study also revealed that color variations did not overlap in their geographic distribution. It is therefore, it suggested that environmental factors may contribute to the skin color variations. It also assumed that habitat discontinuous and biogeography factors may also cause the loss of the connection between the original populations (vicarians) or follow colonization events (dispersal). The examined of 22 stomach contents of M. ikaheka shows this species is carnivorous, and prey on vertebrates such as amphibians, fish, reptiles, and Mammals. These snakes are opportunistic predators since they prey on all that can be captured, but mainly reptiles (61.5%), followed by mammals and fish (both 15.4%), and amphibians (7.7%). Although categorized as terrestrial animal, the diet study showed that M. ikaheka snakes often go into the water to hunt for fish (the sample from Yapen island), including eel (the sample from Aru island). Based on prey items indentified, there is evidence that M. ikaheka is cannibal. At this time, there still no record on reason for cannibalism, but it is assumed that cannibalism was due to competition between populations and means to control population.
Keyword: geographic variation, white snake, papua