Judul: Analisis Risiko Produksi Anggrek Potong (Dendrobium sp) Kelompok Tani Mekar Sari Kecamatan Gunung Sindur Kabupaten Bogor
Abstrak: Orchid ispotential floriculture commodity to export, especially forDendrobium sp. This kind of orchid is cultivated by Mekar Sari farmes group in Gunung Sindur. The cultivation susceptible of the risk of business, that is production risk. This Fluctuation production and wheater conditions make value of risk. The purpose of this research are to indicated the source of production risk, probability analysi, implication and alternative strategic for handling it. Identification of production risk in Dendrobium sp. use descriptive analysis resulted such as risk of weather, pests, disease, and labor. The Result of probability analysis use Z-score method from highest to smallest are risk of weather, labor, pests, and disease. Implication analysis use VaR method from highest to smallest are risk of weather, pests, disease, and labor. Preventive strategic conducted for risk of weather, pests, and labor, while Mitigation Strategic conducted for risks of weather
Keyword: Value at Risk, Z-score, production risk, Dendrobium sp

Judul: Risk production dendrobium orchid on dede anggrek sub-district cibitung bekasi
Abstrak: Dede Anggrek adalah salah satu usaha budidaya agribisnis yang memproduksi anggrek Dendrobium. Fluktuasi produktivitas sering kali terjadi pada kegiatan produksi anggrek Dendrobium di setiap periode produksinya. Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui sumber risiko yang dihadapi untuk kemudian dihitung probabilitas dan dampak risikonya, sehingga dapat diketahui strategi penanganan yang sesuai. Sumber risiko yang dihadapi meliputi kesalahan SDM, media tanam, kualitas bibit, iklim, serta hama dan penyakit. Probabilitas kemungkinan terjadinya risiko tertinggi bersumber dari hama dan penyakit yaitu sebesar 59.09%. Sedangkan dampak risiko yang mungkin terjadi juga bersumber dari hama dan penyakit yaitu sebesar Rp 879 799,- . Strategi penanganan risiko secara preventif dapat dilakukan untuk semua sumber risiko produksi. Sedangkan strategi penanganan secara mitigasi dapat dilakukan untuk sumber risiko produksi hama dan penyakit., Dede Anggrek is one of the agribusiness cultivation business that producing Dendrobium. Fluctuating of productivity almost done in production activities in each period of production. The research was conducted to determine the source of risk and then to calculated the probability and the impact of the risk, so that to know the appropriate strategy. The sources of risk are errors of human resources, growing media, quality of seed, climate, and also pests and diseases. The highest probability of risk is because pests and diseases in the amount of 59.09 %. The highest impact of risk is also because pests and diseases in the amount of Rp 879 799,-. Preventive risk management strategy can be performed for all sources of production risk. Whereas, mitigation risk management strategy can be performed for the sources of production risk of pests and diseases.
Keyword: Dendrobium, produksi, risiko

Judul: Hamiltonian formulation for linear waves motion in two layers fluid
Abstrak: The surface wave could be considered as a wave that separates two fluids, namely water and air. Based on this assumption, it is introduced the interfacial wave, a wave between two layers of fluid with different density. The formulation of interfacial waves motion begins with deriving the base equation of irrotational ideal fluid. Furthermore, according to irrotational fluid assumption, the base equation can be stated in velocity potential. In this derivation, the fluids domain is assumed to be restricted by rigid lid boundary conditions, both at the upper and lower limit. Therefore, the interfacial waves motion can be explained in a hamiltonian formulation. In the hamiltonian formulation, total energy is defined as the sum of kinetic and potential energy. The hamiltonian system is obtained from reduction of kinetic energy by using the Dirichlet Neumann Operator. The resulted kinetic energy equation is nonlinear. Therefore, this form is linearized by first part of the Taylor expansion. This linearization gives a dispersion relation of linear wave. Based on this dispersion relation, the phase speed of the linear wave depends on the density ratio of the two layers fluid.
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