Judul: Point and Figure Portfolio Optimization Using Hidden Markov Models and its Application on the Stock of Bumi Resources Tbk
Abstrak: The problem of portfolio optimization is to select a trading strategy which maximizes the expected terminal wealth. Since in a real-world market the stocks are traded at discrete random times, we are interested in a time sampling method. The time sampling process obtains sampling of stock price used in point and figure chart. Point and figure chart only displays up or down movements of unbalanced stock price. The basic idea is to describe essential movements of the unbalance stock price using a hidden Markov model. Parameters of this model are transition probability matrices. They are estimated using maximum likelihood method and expectation maximization algorithm. The estimation procedure involves change of measure. The estimation of parameters uses computer algebraic systems on the Mathematica 8.0. The model is then applied to the stock price of Bumi Resources Tbk from January 2nd 2007 until January 31st 2011. The estimated parameters are used to calculate the optimal portfolio using a recursive algorithm. The results of this study show that the discrete hidden Markov model can be applied to describe essential movements of the stock price. The best result gives 93.63% accuracy of the estimate of observation sequence with mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) 3.63% and 5 factors causing the event. The numerical calculation shows that the optimal logarithmic PF-portfolio increases the wealth.
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Judul: Optimasi Alokasi Portofolio Saham Menggunakan Simulated Annealing
Abstrak: Optimation can be regarded as a process to find the best solution by using a systematic procedure. Finance is one of the field of science where optimation is often used, that is investment. Portfolio-making process usually has two steps, the first one is to choose the investment where money are invested and the second one is to determine the allocation for each investment which composed an investment portfolio. Determining the allocation for each investment is not simple as it is often involving high amounts of combination so that doing this process manually consumes too much times and is not efficient. Simulated annealing is one of the method that can be used to solve that problem. This research uses monthly stock’s prices data from 2009-2013, involving 29 companies which are registered on the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII). Based on the result from this research, there are seven stocks which are always included on the portfolio, those seven stocks are CPIN, EXCL, ICBP, KLBF, MAPI, MNCN, and UNVR, with the portfolio’s return’s and risk’s values are 5.63% and 6.79%. Using 24 different datasets, the passive portfolio model’s return’s and risk’s values are 3.06% dan 7% whereas the active portfolio model’s return’s and risk’s values are 5.03% and 6.43%.
Keyword: simulated annealing, portfolio, optimation, metaheuristics, investment

Judul: Infeksi Virus Parainfluenza Pada Anjing
Abstrak: Virus parainfluenza anjing termasuk famili Paramyxoviridae, berbentuk pleomorf dengan ukuran bervariasi (bergaris tengah antara 100-500 nm), berpembungkus peka ether, berisi genom RNA dan secara serologis mempunyai kesamaan dengan virus SV-5 kera; dikenak sebagai salah satu kausa penting dari sindrom "kennel cough". Infeksinya dapat mengenai anjing semua umur yang belum pernah terinfeksi atau mendapatkan vaksinasi mengakibatkan gejala klinis ringan yang terbatas pada traktus respirasi atu infeksi yang secara klinis tidak memperlihatkan gejala nyata. Gejala klinis yang nampak setelah masa inkubasi (1-5 hari) terlewati berupa batuk yang tidak berat selama beberapa hari, berbagai tingkat tonsilitis dan pharyngitis dan kadang-kadang ditemukan kenaikan temperatur rektal antara 1-2 derajat C dari temperatur normal rat-rata. Anjing terinfeksi mengandung virus pada traktus respirasi bagian atas dan bawah serta limfonoduli sampai hari ke 9 setelah infeksi. Penyebaran virus antar anjing terjadi secara aerogen.
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