Judul: Penggunaan metode winters untuk peramalam volume ekspor tekstil, dan produk tekstil (TPT)
Abstrak: Peramalan terkadang diperlukan selain untuk menduga suatu kecenderungan produksi juga membantu dalam menentukan kebijakan-kebijakan baru. Untuk itu perlu dilakukan pemilihan metode yang tepat. Penggunaan metode Winters diharapkan bisa menjadi salah satu metode alternatif yang mudah digunakan untuk peramalan dengan keadaan tertentu. Perekonomian suatu negara secara tidak langsung mempengaruhi peramalan di bidang Industri dan Perdagangan masa mendatang. Hal ini terlihat dari proses peramalan volume ekspor Tekstil dan Produk Tekstil (TPT) tahun 1998 dengan menggunakan data selama tiga tahun, yakni tahun 1995-1997. ...
Keyword: 

Judul: Pendugaan volume ekspor (Studi perbandingan beberapa metode deret waktu)
Abstrak: Dalam bidang statistika dikenal adanya banyak mctode peramalan yang dapat digunakan untuk memodelkan atau mcnduga data-data deret waktu. Di antara metode tersebut terdapat metode pemu\usan dan metode dekomposisi. Untuk itu perlu dilakukan pemilihan metode yang tepat. Dengan menggunakan empat metode deret waktu (metode Winters, metode AR1MA. metodc Regresi-AR.IMA. clan metode XI 1-ARIMA) yang diterapkan pada data asli, diharapkan sa1ah satunya dapat menjadi salah satli metode altcmatif yang mudah digunakan untuk peramalan dalam keadaan tertentu. Data ash yang digunakan dibagi menjadi dua data sekatan (data sekatan pertama digunakan untuk fining model dan data sckatan kedua digunakan untuk validasi model peramalan). Fitting model digunakan untuk memperoleh metode terbaik dengan mencari nilai MAD, MSD dan MAPE dari setiap metode. Validasi model peramalan dilakukan untuk mendapatkan nilai MAD, MSD dan MAPE dalam memperoleh basil pendugaan terbaik. Hasil validasi dari penggunaan keempat metode deret waktu tersebut. keseluruhannya dapat digunakan pada data volume eksport ban karena, memenuhi kriteria keakuratan model. Dalam penggunaannya masing-masing metode mempunyai kelebihan dan kekurangannya. Dalam ha! ini metode ARIMA merupakan metode yang lebih mudah untuk digunakan dan merupakan metode yang terbaik dalam menduga volume ekspor ban.
Keyword: 

Judul: Morphology of the gastrointestinal tract of Bandicoot Echymipera kalubu (Marsupialia: Peroryctidae).
Abstrak: Bandicoot (Echymipera kalubu) is one of marsupial which belonging to peroryctidae as well classified as endemic in Papua Island. In Papua, that species has been commonly utilized for dishes as source of protein, and traditional medicine purposed. Therefore, it requires a conservation effort in order to provide sustainability. Biological information of E. kalubu as a baseline data was quite limited. Aim of this study was to assess morphological characteristics of the digestive tract of E. kalubu’s (Marsupialia: Peroryctidae) macroscopically, microscopically and histochemically. The study was used five of adult E. kalubu with the average of body weight was 1.16 ± 0.29 kg and length of head and body was 38.2 ± 4.76 cm. Macroscopic observation were consist of morphological characteristic and morfometric of the body and the digestive track including situs viscerum. Firstly the animals was anaesthetized by combination of 50mg/kg BB Ketamine® and 10mg/kg BB Xylazine® by IM injection. The microscopic observation was used of HE, AB pH 2.5 and PAS staining methods. The result was documented with Cannon EOS 400D and microscope facilitated with Nikon Eclipse E600 for macro- and microphotography respectively. The results were then analyzed descriptively and presenting on tables and figures. Esophagus of E. kalubu was quite long with 10.92 ± 1.97 cm in length and 0.28 cm in diameter, and located along dorsamedial tracheal tube. The stomach was located in the cranial part of the left abdominal cavity. The anterior part was adjacent to diaphragm muscle, the ventro medial was covered by liver and the lateral part by spleen. The stomach of E. kalubu was simple type with short lesser curvature. The length of greater curvature was 9.1 ± 2.2 cm dan lesser curvature was 2.1 ± 0,6 cm. The intestine was relatively short that were 77.5 ± 14.4 cm in length or about two times of the body length. About ± 1.8 cm of cranial part of small intestine was piercing of both bile duct and pancreatic duct to the duodenal mucosa. However, the small and large intestines could be distinguished by the presence of caecum that was 3.4 ± 0.68 cm in length. The mucosae of esophagus E. kalubu was consist of stratified squamous epithelium with no keratinization. At the border of esophagus and stomach, the epithelium was change abruptly to a simple columnar epithelium. The muscularis mucosae was composed of smooth muscle which tends to be thicker to the caudal. The mucus type of esophageal glands were examined in the submucosal layer. The glands were found in large number in the cranial and decreased gradually toward the caudal. The number of esophageal gland was allegedly to be related to the long size of esophagus which was necessary for lubricating of food. The muscularis externa as long as the esophagus of E. kalubu were consisted of skeletal muscle. Existence of the skeletal muscle in the whole parts of esophagus presumed that mechanical function of esophagus was dominant. The glandular stomach of E. kalubu’s was differentiated as cardiac, proper gastric (fundic) and pyloric glands region. The cardiac gland was quite narrow and found in the
Keyword: Bandicoot, Echymipera kalubu, marsupials, gastrointestinal tract