Judul: Analisis Perbandingan Model Grover dan Springate dalam Prediksi Kondisi Kebangkrutan Emiten Sektor Energi di Indonesia
Abstrak: Sektor energi merupakan sektor yang volatil. Hal tersebut dapat dibuktikan dengan harga komoditas energi yang berfluktuatif dan mudah dipengaruhi oleh faktor-faktor eksternal. Faktor-faktor tersebut diantaranya adalah pasokan- permintaan, nilai tukar mata uang, dan bencana non-alam seperti Pandemi Covid- 19. Seluruh faktor-faktor tersebut dapat menyebabkan ketidakstabilan harga enrgi yang akan berdampak pada penurunan laba perusahaan. Penurunan laba secara terus-menerus dapat mengakibatkan terjadinya kesulitan keuangan. Kesulitan keuangan yang terjadi merupakan salah satu tanda awal terjadinya kebangkrutan. Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini dilakukan untuk menganalisis hasil prediksi kondisi kebangkrutan emiten sektor energi di Indonesia terlebih lagi dengan tingkat volatilitas pasar yang tinggi. Selain itu, penelitian ini dilakukan karena mampu mengidentifikasi tahap awal pertanda kebangkrutan. Penelitian ini memprediksi kebangkrutan 21 perusahaan pada sektor energi di Indonesia dengan menggunakan Model Grover G-Score dan Model Springate S-Score. Perusahan sektor energi yang diteliti dipilih dengan berdasarkan kriteria-kriteria tertentu. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa terdapat indikasi bahwa faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi harga komoditas energi turut memengaruhi kinerja perusahaan. Hal tersebut dibuktikan dengan nilai G-Score dan S-Score pada sebagian perusahaan turut menunjukkan penurunan ketikan terjadi penurunan harga komoditas energi. Sebanyak 16 dari 21 perusahaan yang selalu berada dalam zona ‘safe’ berdasarkan Model Grover G-Score, sedangkan berdasarkan Model Springate S-Score hanya terdapat 4 dari 21 perusahaan yang berada dalam zona ‘safe’ pada periode 2017- 2021. Uji t-test dilakukan untuk menguji apakah terdapat perbedaan antara kedua model dan diperoleh hasil yang menyatakan bahwa terdapat perbedaan signifikan antara hasil analisis antara Model Grover G-Score dengan Model Springate S-Score pada taraf nyata 0,01., The energy sector is a volatile sector. This can be proven by fluctuating energy commodity prices and easily influenced by external factors. These factors include supply-demand, exchange rates, and non-natural disasters such as the Covid-19 Pandemic. All of these factors can cause energy price instability which will have an impact on decreasing company profits. A continuous decline in profits can result in financial distress. Financial distress that occured are one of the early signs of bankruptcy. Therefore, this study was conducted to analyze the predicted results of bankruptcy conditions of energy sector company in Indonesia, especially with a high level of market volatility. In addition, this study was conducted because it was able to identify the early stages of bankruptcy harbingers. This research predicted the bankruptcy condition of 21 companies in the energy sector in Indonesia using the Grover G-Score Model and Springate S-Score Model. The energy sector companies studied were selected based on certain criteria. The results show that there are indications that factors that affect energy commodity prices also affect company financial performance. This is evidenced by the G-Score and S-Score values in some companies also show a decrease when there is a decline in energy commodity prices. As many as 16 out of 21 companies are always in the 'safe' zone based on the Grover G-Score Model, while based on the Springate S-Score Model there are only 4 out of 21 companies that are in the 'safe' zone in the 2017-2021 period. The t-test was conducted to test whether there is a difference between the two models and obtained results that
Keyword: Bankruptcy Prediction Analysis, Grover G-Score, Indonesia Energy Sector, Springate S-Score

Judul: Analysis of Stock Exchange, Mining Commodity, Exchange Rates, and Energy Sector Stock Index using Vector Error Correction Model
Abstrak: Sektor Energi merupakan salah satu sektor yang memiliki pengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi suatu negara secara umum. Kenaikan pertumbuhan ekonomi selalu berkaitan dengan penggunaan energi, di mana perkembangan ekonomi yang terus meningkat akan mengakibatkan peningkatan permintaan akan energi. Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap indeks saham sektor energi di Indonesia menggunakan Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Data yang digunakan adalah indeks saham sektor energi, harga minyak bumi, harga batu bara, harga gas, indeks Nikkei, indeks Shanghai, indeks Dow Jones, dan kurs periode Januari 2021 hingga Maret 2023. Hasil analisis VECM menunjukkan bahwa pada jangka pendek harga minyak bumi dan harga batu bara berpengaruh nyata terhadap indeks saham sektor energi. Pada jangka panjang peubah yang berpengaruh nyata adalah harga batu bara, harga gas, indeks Nikkei, dan kurs. Hasil analisis Impulse Response Function (IRF) menunjukkan adanya shock pada indeks saham sektor energi, harga minyak bumi, dan harga batu bara dapat meningkatkan indeks saham sektor energi. Sebaliknya, adanya shock indeks Nikkei dapat menurunkan indeks saham sektor energi. Hasil Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) menunjukkan bahwa kontribusi peubah indeks saham sektor energi, harga minyak bumi, harga batu bara, dan harga gas sudah nyata dalam menjelaskan perilaku perubahan indeks saham sektor energi., Energy Sector is one of the sectors that has a significant impact on the overall economic growth of a country. Economic growth is always linked to energy consumption, as increasing economic development leads to higher energy demand. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the factors influencing the energy sector stock index in Indonesia using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The data used include the energy sector stock index, crude oil prices, coal prices, gas prices, Nikkei Index, Shanghai Index, Dow Jones Index, and exchange rates from January 2021 to March 2023. VECM analysis results indicate that in the short term, crude oil prices and coal prices have a significant impact on the energy sector stock index. In the long term, significant factors are coal prices, gas prices, Nikkei Index, and exchange rates. The Impulse Response Function (IRF) analysis reveals that shocks to the energy sector stock index, crude oil prices, and coal prices can increase the energy sector stock index. Conversely, shocks to the Nikkei Index can decrease the energy sector stock index. The Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) results demonstrate that the contributions of the energy sector stock index, crude oil prices, coal prices, and gas prices are significant in explaining the behavior of changes in the energy sector stock index.
Keyword: FEVD, IDX Energy, IRF, VECM

Judul: Posisi Filogenetik Kura-Kura Carettochelys Insculpta  (Reptillia: Testudinata)
Abstrak: Carettochelys insculpta is an endemic freshwater turtle of southern Papua and northern Australia. Phylogenetic position of this turtle is remain unresolved until now. Most of the research conducted show close relationships of C. insculpta and members of Trionychidae family. However, some of the research show distance between C. insculpta and members of Trionychidae family. This research is conducted to analyze phylogenetic relationship between C. insculpta and other members of Testudinata using 12S rRNA, 16S rRNA, and both gene as markers. DNA samples were obtained from three different organisms of C. insculpta. Two species used as outgroups were Alligator mississippiensis and Iguana iguana. Phylogenetic analysis was carried out using Neighbor-Joining method with Felsenstein 1981 (F81) modeltest. A polytomy tree of Testudinata was produced by using 12S rRNA gene. However, analysis using 16S rRNA and both genes as markers confirmed that C. insculpta was located between the Chelonidae and the Trionychidae family.
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