Judul: Linkage Analysis of Vegetable Oils and Crude Oil Prices in Vegetable Oils World Trade
Abstrak: The increasing as non-food uses of vegetable oils especially as biodiesel and the basis of the oleochemical industry, making the formation of vegetable oil prices in world trade has been linked to world prices of crude oil in addition to linkages with the world price of vegetable oils competitor. The objectives of this study were (1) to analyze the linkage of the world price of crude oil and vegetable oil simultaneously, (2) to make the forecasting of the real price of crude oil and vegetable oil in world market, the vegetable oil real price in domestic market and the performance of Indonesian palm oil industry, particularly the production, domestic supply, domestic consumption and export volumes of Indonesian palm oil for the period 2012-2025, (3) to examine the impact of the changes of the external factors and trade policy by the vegetable oil’s exporting countries and importing countries on the world trade of vegetable oils, and particularly the production, domestic supply, domestic consumption and exports volumes of Indonesian palm oil and (4) to formulate the policy for development of the Indonesian oil palm industry in the future. The study employs an econometric model and specification was dynamic simultaneous equations and consists of 81 behavioral equations and 16 identities equations. Parameters are estimated using Two Stage Least Squares methods for the period 1980-2008. This study finds that real price projections in the world market of 2012-2025 periods showed that the price fluctuations of crude oil and vegetable oil tend to have same patterns with slightly trend to increases. Although positively correlated, the percentage increase of vegetable oils price as the effect of the increasing of crude oil price is less than the percentage change of crude oil prices, except for soybean oil prices that vista vies with the percentage change of crude oil prices. The effect on percentage change of price of soybean oils is the highest and then followed by sunflower oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil. Beside the chemical characteristics, this condition thought to be related to the limited volumes of vegetable oils world’s productions and the food sector needs as a main constraints in the use of vegetable oils as crude oil substitutes. As annual crop commodities and the substitutes of seed oils, however, palm oil price has more responsive to export fluctuation then seed oils. Base on this study, in order to support the Indonesian oil palm industry, the Indonesian government has been suggested (1) to develop the domestic market, (2) to ensure the exchange rate stability and the palm oils trade policy and (3) to arrange the grand design of Indonesian oil palm industry for the long run term.
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Judul: Analisis Vektor Autoregresi (VAR) Terhadap Hubungan Antara Produksi Biodiesel dan Harga Minyak Sawit di Indonesia
Abstrak: Indonesian palm oil industry continues to grow and develop rapidly. Indonesia, which was originally a manufacturer of the world's number two oil palm since 2006 has become the world's largest palm oil producer. According to the Indonesian Palm Oil Board (IPOB) production of Crude Palm Oil (CPO) and Crude Palm Kernel Oil (CPKO) Indonesia in 2010 reached 24.459 million tons or 47.9% of the total production of world’s CPO and CPKO, and in 2011 increased to 26.485 million tons. Bright prospects for oil industry making it one of Indonesia's main industry. For this bright prospects reason which prompted the government of Indonesia to develop oil palm plantations. For the last few years oil prices soar and affect the price of fossil fuels. This makes a lot of countries are seeking alternative sources of energy that is renewable bioenergy, including the government of Indonesia. Bioenergy feedstock for biodiesel, which is one of renewable bioenergy, could use palm oil which is produced in Indonesia. Utilization of palm oil as biodiesel feedstock will lead to increased demand for CPO. Thus the demand for palm oil will increase not only from the demand from the food sector but also from non-food sector. Production of biodiesel tend to respond positively to the CPO price shocks. Response of cooking oil for biodiesel production is positive and tends to increase steadily. Fluctuations in the price of cooking oil in the long run is more affected by the price of CPO than biodiesel production, but CPO is the main raw material of biodiesel so that when there is an increase in the demand for palm oil, biodiesel production will also increase. Increased demand for palm oil could trigger an increase in CPO prices so that the price of cooking oil will rise. It shows that the price of cooking oil will indirectly influenced by the production of biodiesel. The increase in cooking oil prices caused by the increase in crude palm oil prices due to the production of biodiesel can be reduced by increasing the supply of CPO either by reduction of exports and the increase in CPO production.
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Judul: Desain hipotetis taman bermain untuk anak-anak cacat fisik
Abstrak: Tujuan pembuatan karya ilmiah ini adalah untuk memberikan alternatif disain tempat latihan fisioterapi dan memberikan usul pengembangan sarana rekreasi bagi anak- anak cacat fisik. Taman bermain ini perlu dibuat khusus untuk anak-anak cacat fisik agar mereka dapat mengembang- kan kemampuannya seoptimal mungkin. Penelitian dilakukan dengan menggunakan metode suvey dengan teknik observasi dan wawancara. Data yang dicari adalah data kondisi fisik alami dan data mengenai anak-anak cacat fisik. Tapak yang digunakan sebagai contoh kasus adalah tapak milik YPAC. Tapak tersebut pada kondisi awal merupakan tempat parkir. Inventarisasi kondisi fisik alami meliputi: ukuran batas dan kondisi tapak, topografi, tanaman, sirkulasi, elemen keras, utilitas dan kesan panca indera. Data mengenai anak-anak cacat fisik didapat dari hasil wawancara dengan ahli fisioterapi, orangtua dan anak- anak cacat fisik. Data yang ingin didapat adalah data keinginan dan saran didalam pembuatan taman bermain dan masalah-masalah yang dihadapi pada saat latihan fisio terapi. Berdasarkan hasil sintesis, dibuat konsep sebuah taman bermain yang terdiri dari ruang aktif untuk bermain dengan banyak aktifitas fisik, ruang pasif untuk melihat rekan yang sedang bermain dan menikmati flora dan fauna yang ada, ruang gudang untuk menyimpan alat-alat pemeli- haraan dan ruang sirkulasi untuk pergerakan kendaraan dan manusia di dalam tapak. Untuk ruang bermain aktif maka mainan yang dibuat didasarkan dengan keinginan mengembangkan kemampuan motorik anak-anak cacat fisik. Mainan-mainan didisain sesuai dengan konsep yaitu mengikuti perkembangan anak sejak bayi dari merangkak/merayap, duduk, jalan, berlari, melompat dan lain-lain…dst
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