Judul: Hubungan Keaslian Kampunga Naga dengan Pembentukan Identitas Masyarakat Adat
Abstrak: The Indigenous villages sustainability had been one major issue within this modern era, The Kampung Naga is one of the traditional village which still keeps the originality of it is culture and tradition. That originality had been made to be the main asset for it is community to keep hold and establish the identity of the community. The main purpose of this research is to describe the individual characteristic of the people at kampong Naga, analyzing each individual characteristic with the culture and tradition that they still keep until today and how it influences the identity of the Dragon village. This research is done by conducting the survey method. The result of this research is that the characteristic of the custom community (age, occupation and gender) are related to the observance of the custom tradition as well as how each personality, socially and collectively formed. While their engagement with the custom is related in forming the collective identity
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Judul: Gaya Hidup Masyarakat Naga dan Faktor-faktor yang Mempengaruhinya
Abstrak: The existence of the indigenous community could be one of the thing which attract tourists to visit. One such attraction is the hallmark of their lifestyle which still guided by the local customs. This lifestyle can change in line with the changing times. The purpose of this research is to describe the lifestyle of Naga society, analyzing the characteristics of individual relationships with the community lifestyle of Naga, analyze public perception of Naga community with the traveler community lifestyle of Naga, analyze the relationship of public disclosure of the technology with the people's lifestyles of Naga, and analyze relationships using mass media by Naga society with the lifestyle of Naga Community. The method used in this study is a survey method. The results obtained, age are related to the use of the goods, gender are associated with the use of the place, occupation is associated with the use of the place, the attitude associated with the use of the goods, the use of mobile phones related to the use of goods and the use of space, the use of the internet related to the use of goods and the use of space, and television ownership associated with the use of the goods.
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Judul: Model Peramalan Harga Minyak Mentah OPEC Menggunakan ARIMA melalui Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition
Abstrak: Harga minyak mentah dunia mengalami fluktuasi setiap harinya. Salah satu sumber minyak mentah yang diperdagangkan pada skala internasional yaitu minyak dari negara-negara pengekspor minyak mentah dunia yang tergabung dalam Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Sekitar empat puluh persen dari total produksi minyak dunia merupakan produksi OPEC. Hal tersebut menjadikan peramalan harga minyak mentah OPEC sangat dibutuhkan untuk menjaga keseimbangan pasar minyak dunia. Data harga minyak yang fluktuatif dibuat lebih sederhana dan mudah diinterpretasikan dengan cara menerapkan metode Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD). Metode EEMD menguraikan data menjadi sejumlah Intrinsic Mode Function (IMF) dan sisaan IMF. Pada penelitian ini dibandingkan model peramalan ARIMA dengan menggunakan data asli dan hasil dekomposisi berupa komponen IMF dan sisaan IMF. Perbandingan kedua metode dilihat berdasarkan keseluruhan dan rata-rata nilai MAPE hasil peramalan pada lima rentang waktu. Metode EEMD-ARIMA memiliki rata-rata nilai MAPE sebesar 9,09% dan simpangan baku nilai MAPE sebesar 7,39%. Peramalan harga minyak mentah OPEC pada bulan Januari-Agustus 2021 berkisar antara 42,22 sampai 60,6 US dollar per barel. Hasil akhir analisis pada penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa metode ARIMA dengan data dekomposisi (EEMD-ARIMA) lebih baik dibandingkan metode ARIMA menggunakan data asli., World crude oil prices fluctuate every day. One source of crude oil traded is oil from crude oil exporting countries that are members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). In the total of 40% of world crude oil is produced by OPEC. This makes forecasting the price of crude oil OPEC’s policy very necessary in order to maintain world oil market stability. Fluctuating oil price data is made simpler and easier to interpret by applying the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) method. The EEMD method decomposes the data into a number of Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMF) and residual of the IMF. In this study, the ARIMA forecasting model is compared using the original data and the decomposition results in the form of IMF components and IMF residuals. The comparison of the two methods is seen based on the overall and average MAPE value of the forecasting results in five time ranges. The EEMD-ARIMA method has an average MAPE value of 9.09% and standard deviation MAPE value of 7.39%. OPEC crude oil price forecast in January-August 2021 ranges from 42.22 to 60.6 USD per barrel. The final result of the analysis in this study shows that the ARIMA method with decomposition data (EEMD-ARIMA) is better than the ARIMA method using original data.
Keyword: ARIMA, EEMD, EMD, forecast, OPEC crude oil price