Judul: Sensitivitas Model Wrf-Ems Dalam Memprediksi Kejadian Hujan Pada Musim Basah Dan Kering Di Sumatera Barat
Abstrak: Sensitivitas model WRF-EMS dengan kombinasi skema konvektif-planetary boundary layer (PBL) dianalisis menggunakan delapan jenis eksperimen pada musim basah dan kering di Sumatera Barat. Analisis dilakukan pada akumulasi curah hujan selama 24 dan 48 jam menggunakan forecast error, root mean square error (RMSE), threat score (TS), probability of detection (POD) dan false alarm ratio (FAR). Secara umum, model WRF-EMS dengan kombinasi skema BMJ-ACM2 dapat dengan baik menangkap kejadian hujan berdasarkan konsistensi pola dan luasan hujan terhadap TRMM. Verifikasi model pada stasiun meteorologi Tabing menunjukkan nilai RMSE sebesar 0.64 mm dan 0.38 mm serta TS mencapai 0.86 dan 0.73 untuk akumulasi 24 dan 48 jam pada musim basah. Nilai RMSE pada musim kering mencapai 0.27 (24 jam) dan 0.45 (48 jam) tetapi TS yang diperoleh relatif kecil dengan 0.50 untuk akumulasi 24 dan 48 jam. Nilai POD dan FAR mencapai 1.0 dan 0.14 (24 jam) serta 0.89 dan 0.20 (48 jam) pada musim basah. Sementara itu, nilai POD dan FAR pada musim kering mencapai 0.67 dan 0.33 (24 jam) serta 0.75 dan 0.40 (48 jam). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa Model WRF-EMS lebih akurat memprediksi kejadian hujan pada musim basah dibandingkan musim kering di Tabing, Sumatera Barat.
Keyword: WRF-EMS, prediksi hujan, BMJ-ACM2, verifikasi hujan, Sumatera Barat

Judul: Pemanfaatan Model Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System (WRF-EMS) untuk Memprediksi Hujan
Abstrak: Numerical models can be used to predict the weather. Numerical model used in this study is a model of Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System (WRF-EMS). The purpose of this study is to examine the output prediction of rain on 1 or two days ahead using the WRF-EMS model at 6 weather observations stations and the TRMM Data on 8 initials and boundary conditions, and to examine the output prediction of rain spatially using the WRFEMS model on the initial and boundary conditions that are different. In this study, the configuration of the standard scheme using the WRF-EMS model is maintained; however, the cumulus scheme is changed to the Betts-Miller-Janjic cumulus scheme. The accuracy of rainfall prediction results were assessed by comparing the model results with the rainfall synoptic data and TRMM. The accuracy of the model can also be seen in the range of the threat values score (TS) of rain predicted on the 1 and 2 days later. The result shows that the model predictions of rain using WRF-EMS is good enough to simulate a no-rain events on the island of Sumatra and Kalimantan. This is shown by the results of the rainfall prediction intensity and the data shown on TRMM. The WRF-EMS model can predicts rain in the morning, while the result of the prediction is over estimated in the afternoon and evening. The model can produce a fairly well prediction in the territorial waters of south Sumatra and Java Island. The WRFEMS model has a consistent high TS value at Citeko station and horizontal resolution of 27 and 3 km for the prediction of rain on the next couple of days. The TS value at Citeko weather observation station of the model with a horizontal resolution of 27 km for the prediction of 1 and 2 days in advance of each ranged from 0 – 0.33, and 0 – 0.30, while the TS value of the model with a horizontal resolution of 3 km for rainfall predictions 1 and 2 days in advance each ranged from 0.17 to 0.75 and 0.38 - 0.63. The increased of horizontal resolution from 27 km to 3 km can also increase the value of TS. This indicates that the model with a horizontal resolution of 3 km is more accurate for predicting rain compared to the model horizontal resolution of 27 km. The rainfall prediction was spatially over estimated when using the WRF-EMS Model, and this model is more sensitive in predicting rain at Citeko Station.
Keyword: Bogor Agricultural University (IPB), over-estimated, threat score, a model WRF-EMS, cumulus scheme Betts-Miller-Janjic

Judul: Hubungan Keaslian Kampunga Naga dengan Pembentukan Identitas Masyarakat Adat
Abstrak: The Indigenous villages sustainability had been one major issue within this modern era, The Kampung Naga is one of the traditional village which still keeps the originality of it is culture and tradition. That originality had been made to be the main asset for it is community to keep hold and establish the identity of the community. The main purpose of this research is to describe the individual characteristic of the people at kampong Naga, analyzing each individual characteristic with the culture and tradition that they still keep until today and how it influences the identity of the Dragon village. This research is done by conducting the survey method. The result of this research is that the characteristic of the custom community (age, occupation and gender) are related to the observance of the custom tradition as well as how each personality, socially and collectively formed. While their engagement with the custom is related in forming the collective identity
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