Judul: Analisis Pengaruh Enterprise Value to EBIT dan Earning per Share Terhadap Harga Saham Menggunakan Regresi Data Panel
Abstrak: Pergerakan harga saham menjadi hal yang penting bagi investor dalam pengambilan keputusan investasi. Pergerakan harga saham dipengaruhi banyak faktor. Dalam karya ilmiah ini peubah penjelas yang akan digunakan merupakan rasio fundamental perusahaan, yaitu EV to EBIT dan Earning per Share. Data yang digunakan dalam karya ilmiah ini merupakan data panel dari enam saham dengan kapitalisasi pasar terbesar di Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan pada periode 2012 hingga 2020. Dalam karya ilmiah ini model pergerakan harga saham dimodelkan dengan regresi data panel. Model regresi data panel memiliki tiga pilihan model, yaitu model pengaruh gabungan, model pengaruh tetap, dan model pengaruh acak. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model pengaruh tetap dengan pembobotan cross section weight adalah model yang sesuai untuk menggambarkan pengaruh EV to EBIT dan EPS terhadap data harga enam saham dengan kapitalisasi pasar terbesar di Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan pada periode 2012 hingga 2020. Model ini memiliki nilai R2 sebesar 97.73% dan MAPE sebesar 12.10%.
Keyword: saham, investasi, regresi, data panel, investment, stock, panel data regression, EV to EBIT, EPS

Judul: Analysis Factor of The Effect of Changes in  Stock Prices Using Panel Data Regression
Abstrak: Saham merupakan salah satu instrumen pasar keuangan yang paling populer. Menerbitkan saham merupakan salah satu pilihan perusahaan ketika memutuskan untuk pendanaan perusahaan. Dalam karya ilmiah ini diteliti seberapa besar pengaruh rasio harga penghasilan dan rasio hutang terhadap harga saham yang beredar untuk emiten tertua di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Data yang digunakan merupakan data panel dari 7 perusahaan penerbit saham tertua di Bursa Efek Indonesia dengan rentang waktu harga saham yang diambil mulai dari 2016 hingga 2021. Peramalan harga saham ini akan dimodelkan menggunakan regresi data panel yang mempunyai 3 model yaitu model pengaruh gabungan, model pengaruh tetap individu, dan model pengaruh acak. Dari hasil penelitian didapatkan bahwa model pengaruh tetap individu dengan transformasi data adalah model yang terbaik untuk digunakan. Model tersebut menggambarkan pengaruh rasio harga penghasilan dan rasio hutang terhadap harga saham emiten tertua di Bursa Efek Indonesia memiliki nilai R square sebesar 97.56% dengan nilai MAPE dari model sebesar 1.94% dan nilai MAPE peramalan sebesar 5.20%., Stocks are one of the most popular financial market instruments. Issuing shares is one of the company's choices when deciding to fund the company. This scientific paper will examine how much price earnings ratio and debt ratio influence the stock prices outstanding for the oldest issuers on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The data used is panel data from the seven oldest stock issuing companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange with a time range of stock prices from 2016 to 2021. This stock price forecasting will be modeled using panel data regression, which has three models: the common effect model, the individual fixed effect model, and the random effect model. The study’s results found that the fixed effect model with data transformation is the best model to use. The model illustrates the influence of the price-earnings ratio and debt ratio on the stock price of the oldest issuer in IDX which has R square value of 97.56% with MAPE of model 1.94% and MAPE of forecasting 5.20%.
Keyword: stock, regression, panel data, price-earning ratio, debt ratio

Judul: Thermal Characteristics and Dynamics of Tropical Cyclone over Western North Pacific Ocean: A Case Study of Typhoon Songda (Chedeng) 2011
Abstrak: The frequent occasion of Tropical Cyclone (TC) over Western North Pacific (WNP) Ocean lies from 10˚N to 26˚N and 121˚E to 170˚E. Sources of TC development come from warm ocean temperature where latent heat is released during condensation processes and subsequently concentrated in the boundary layer. Relative humidity at 850-700 hPa is responsible to produce the most intense storm. Meanwhile, weak vertical wind shear between 850-200 hPa is one of the dynamical factors that lead to the development of TC. Pressure level of 850-200 hPa is chosen to minimize the thermodynamic effect in the lower troposphere. Typhoon Songda (Chedeng in the Philippines) or TSC lasted from May 18th to 30th, 2011 and strengthened into powerful Super Typhoon stage between May 24th and 27th. Long curving track and the exhibition of all sequences of TC life cycle, TSC is then considered as an ideal case of TC. The objective of the study with case of TSC is to investigate the role of thermal characteristics and dynamics on TC intensity. The research is carried out by using Advanced Research of Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF ARW model) version 3.3. Two domains are employed in the model. The first domain situate from 02˚N to 40˚N and 118˚E to 149˚E and cover spatial resolution () of 33.1 km. The second domain situate from 09˚N to 27˚N and 119˚E to 132˚E with of 11 km. Timestep of the model () is 120 seconds. The model is supported by the following physical parameterization, i.e., Yonsei University Scheme (YSU) in the boundary layer, Kain-Fritsch scheme (KF) in the cumulus, and WRF Single-Moment 3-class scheme in the microphysics. Initial meteorological condition prior to the formation of the cyclone is generated using WRF ARW standard-release model. Sensitivity of the model output is obtained from a selected single-parameter change scenarios, namely, 10 % to 20 % decrease and increase of wind shear initial data at 850-200 hPa, and by 10 % to 20 % decrease of relative humidity initial data at 850-700 hPa. The result showed that the negative correlations between wind shear and intensity are found in wind shear scenarios. Wind shears of 10 ms-1 which lead to strengthening of the wind intensity in the early period of Typhoon development are found in wind shear scenarios. The effect of wind shear changes on wind intensity is statistically significant in the 20 % wind shear scenarios. During mature stage, weak wind intensity occurred when wind shear increase as given in the WRF standard-release and the 20 % decreasing scenario. Different situation is found in the 20 % increasing scenario where wind shear tend to weak and lead to strong wind intensity at this stage. Meanwhile, the reduction of moisture supply at 850-700 hPa resulting from 20 % decreasing relative humidity play a major role in the weakening of wind intensity and reduces mechanical energy of the cycle process as much as 300 J kg-1.
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