Judul: Penentuan Bobot Optimum dengan Pengganda Lagrange untuk Penggabungan Nilai Dugaan Ekstrim Curah Hujan
Abstrak: The phenomenon of extreme rainfall could give negative impact such as a high risk of failure in agriculture and plantation productions. The estimation of extreme values using ensemble method to combine the estimates of modified Champernowne distribution and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) is expected to anticipate the risk of production failure. The goals of this research are to determine optimum weight by Langrange multiplier in estimating the ensemble two extreme rainfall values based on modified Champernowne distribution and GPD, to compare the weighted results using Langrange multiplier by weighting iteratively and linear regression methods, and to forecast extreme rainfall values. The research used daily rainfalls data from January 1, 1985 to March 31, 2011 in Darmaga-Bogor Climatology Stations. The estimations using GPD tends to overestimate while the modified Champernowne distribution tends to underestimate. The ensemble method to combine both estimates using Langrange multiplier resulted a better estimate. The Langrange multipliers could be used as an alternative method to determine the optimum weight without trial and error process as in the iteration process. Forecasting one month ahead is better using the ensemble method.
Keyword: Bogor Agricultural University (IPB), modified Champernowne distribution, Lagrange multipliers, Generalized Pareto Distribution, ensemble

Judul: Pendugaan Nilai Ekstrim Menggunakan Sebaran Champemowne Termodifikasi, Sebaran Pareto Terampat, dan Nilai Gabungan (Studi Kasus Curah Hujan Harian Darmaga Bogor)
Abstrak: Extreme rainfall can give a negative affect for human activity. Negative effect of production failure in agriculture and plantations can be anticipated by extreme rainfall estimation that may occur in the future. The aims of this study is to compare the extreme rainfall estimation using the modified Champernowne distribution and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), and determine the optimum weights of combined extereme value estimation. Modified Champernowne distribution patern has convergence to the GPD that the distribution function consists of three parameters that describe the data center, the diversity, and characteristics of the end of the distribution. While GPD consists of two parameters that describe the diversity and characteristics of the end of the distribution (heavy tail/tail light). The data used are daily rainfall data in Darmaga Bogor Station during the period 1985-June 2011 were obtained from the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics. GPD estimation tends to over estimate while modified Champernowne distribution estimation tends to under estimate. The combine of the estimated value by weighted produces more accurate extreme value estimation. Forecasting results for 1, 2, and 3 month ahead show that the best prediction based on modified Champernowne distribution, while forecasting results for 6 and 9 month ahead is very well predicted by GPD and combined value.
Keyword: 

Judul: Infeksi cacing Ascarid pasa anjing dan kucing, serta hubungannya sebagai zoonosis
Abstrak: Ada tiga cacing Ascarid yang didapatkan pada anjing dan kucing, yaitu Toxocara canis pada anjing, Toxocara cati pada kucing dan Toxascaris leonina pada anjing dan kucing. Ketiganya mempunyai habitat di usus kecil (Soulsby, 1982). Manusia dapat bertindak sebagai induk semang paratenik dari kelompok ini, melalui anjing dan kucing yang menderita sebagai sumber infeksi, terutama anak- anak anjing dan anak-anak kucing (Brown, 1975). Dari kelompok Ascarid ini penyebab utama penyakit pada manusia adalah Toxocara canis (Soulsby, 1982). Penyakit pada manusia yang disebabkan oleh kelompok ini dikenal sebagai penyakit 'Visceral Larva Migrans' (Brown, 1975), Toxocariasis (Beaver, 1966). Penularan pada anjing dan kucing, dapat melalui telur infektif (langsung), induk semang paratenik seperti tikus, kecos, cacing Lanah dan lain-lain (tidak langsung), intrauterin, trans-mammary dan secara fecaloral. Pada manusia, penularan terjadi melalui telur infektif yang tertelan. Gejala klinis yang tampak pada anjing dan kucing yang terinfeksi oleh kelompok ini, adalah anjing kurus, pertumbuhan terhambat, gelisah, batuk, respirasi meningkat, keluar cairan dari hidung, muntah yang kadang kadang bercampur dengan cacing, icterus, diare, sakit pada abdomen, perut buncit dan kadang-kadang timbul gejala konvulsi (Kelly, 1977). Pada manusia tanda klinis yang umum terlihat, yaitu batuk, dispnoe disertai demam dan gejala umum lainnya. Kadang-kadang endopthalmitis, retinitis perifer, papilitis, dan konvulsi. Pemeriksaan darah terlihat eosinofilia, leukositosis, hiperglobulinemia dan pemerik saan yang lain memperlihatkan hepatomegali…dst
Keyword: