Judul: Penerapan Vector Error Correction Model pada Peramalan Nilai Tukar Rupiah terhadap Dollar Amerika
Abstrak: Nilai tukar rupiah (kurs) menjadi salah satu indikator kestabilan ekonomi. Namun demikian, kurs selalu mengalami fluktuasi dari waktu ke waktu yang disebabkan oleh beberapa faktor diantaranya adalah tingkat inflasi, ekspor, impor, cadangan devisa dan BI rate. Dalam teori ekonomi keenam peubah tersebut memiliki pengaruh satu sama lain. Jika kurs melemah maka akan berdampak besar pada perekonomian dan sosial, dimana pertumbuhan ekonomi akan melambat sehingga kemiskinan akan meningkat. Dengan demikian, fluktuasi kurs harus tetap terkendali dengan baik. Peramalan kurs bisa dilakukan dengan berbagai metode, diantaranya adalah metode VECM. VECM termasuk dalam analisis deret waktu peubah ganda. VECM di berbagai penelitian memberikan indikasi dapat memberikan angka ramalan lebih baik daripada ARIMA. Metode VECM secara umum memberikan informasi bermakna baik dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang. Peubah yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah kurs terhadap dollar Amerika, ekspor, impor, inflasi, cadangan devisa, dan BI rate dari bulan Januari 2012 hingga Desember 2019. Model yang didapatkan adalah VECM(2) dengan 5 rank kointegrasi. Dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang, peubah kurs, ekspor, dan BI rate berpengaruh nyata pada perubahan nilai kurs.
Keyword: Kurs, VECM

Judul: Peramalan Kurs Rupiah terhadap Dolar dengan Metode Berbasis Rata-rata Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain.
Abstrak: Kurs atau nilai tukar mata uang sangat penting dalam perekonomian. Oleh karena itu, perlu dilakukan upaya untuk memprediksi besarnya nilai kurs di periode berikutnya. Pada karya ilmiah ini, metode peramalan yang yang digunakan adalah metode fuzzy time series Markov chain yang dikombinasikan dengan metode berbasis rata-rata untuk penentuan jumlah interval yang efektif. Tujuan dari karya ilmiah ini adalah meramalkan nilai kurs rupiah terhadap dolar Amerika menggunakan metode berbasis rata-rata fuzzy time series Markov chain, serta menghitung tingkat kesalahan peramalan menggunakan ukuran kesalahan mean absolute percentage error. Dalam metode ini data kurs rupiah terhadap dolar Amerika diubah menjadi himpunan fuzzy sehingga diperoleh fuzzy logical relationship group. Hasil prediksi menunjukkan bahwa nilai mean absolute percentage error yang diperoleh dalam peramalan kurs periode Maret 2014-Maret 2016 hanya sebesar 0.71%, yang berarti hasil prediksi dianggap cukup baik.
Keyword: fuzzy time series Markov chain, nilai kurs, mean absolute percentage error

Judul: Systematics of Desmos (Annonaceae) in Malesia
Abstrak: Desmos is a woody climbing genus of Annonaceae which has been widely used as traditional medicine in several countries such as China, Indo-China, Thailand, and Peninsular Malaysia to treat dysentery, vertigo, fever, and postpartum. Phylogenetic studies on Desmos showed a close relationship between Desmos and Dasymaschalon. They share similar moniliform monocarpic fruits, but their flowers are different. It has been debated among Annonaceae researchers whether both genera should be treated as the same or distinct genus. Therefore, investigation on the taxonomic delimitation of Desmos species and Dasymaschalon will be necessary. Plastid genome (plastome) identification, leaf epidermal section of Desmos species and Dasymaschalon species, a taxonomic revision of Desmos in Malesia using morphological data, the spatial distribution of Desmos species in Malesia, and morphological and genetic variation in Desmos chinensis population using ISSR marker were used to investigate taxonomic delimitation of Desmos. Plastome study of Desmos chinensis and Dasymaschalon dasymaschalum was carried out to determine the origin, evolution, phylogenomics, and identify marker candidates for Desmos and Dasymaschalon or with other genera in Annonaceae. We discovered that the plastome of Desmos chinensis was circular with the size of 167,677 bp (smaller than Dasymaschalon dasymaschalum), consist of 111 genes, including 78 protein-coding genes, 29 transfer RNAs, and 4 ribosomal RNAs. The plastome showed a typical quadripartite structure, i.e., large single copy (LSC), small single copy (SSC), and two inverted repeats (IRs). The plastome of Dasymaschalon dasymaschalum was 191,488 bp in length, which also exhibited a typical quadripartite structure (LSC, SSC, and two IRs). Desmos chinensis and Dasymaschalon dasymaschalum showed different copies of accD, ndhD, ndhF, rps18, and ycf2. Protein coding genes of rpoB, rpoC1, rbcL, matK, rpl32, infA, and rpl36 were identified based on nucleotide diversity, sequence variability, and parsimony-informative sites. The genes are defined as molecular marker candidates of plastome for phylogenetic, barcoding, and population genetic research. We predicted that Desmos chinensis and Dasymaschalon dasymaschalum separated at ca. 64 million years ago during the Paleocene. Leaf anatomical feature study was carried to support the taxonomic delimitation of interspecific Desmos and intergeneric of Desmos and Dasymaschalon. Leaf anatomy in the paradermal section of 20 taxa (12 species of Desmos, eight species of Dasymaschalon) have been carried out. According to the leaf epidermal section, Desmos and Dasymaschalon are two distinct genera mainly distinguished based on the anticlinal wall undulation of epidermal cells and supported by variation of the crystal type and size. The anticlinal wall undulation of Desmos was almost straight to slightly wavy and never sinuous; meanwhile, Dasymaschalon varies from almost straight to deeply sinusoid. The crystals of Desmos consist of rhombohedral, druse type A, and druse type B crystals, whereas Dasymaschalon has prism, druse type A, druse type B, and druse type C crystals. The recent taxonomic revision using the morphological data was mainly based on the examination of about 1374 specimens from BO, L, WAN, ANDA, SING, SAN, K, P, HUH herbaria. The Desmos species in Malesia consists of eight species: D. acutus, D. chinensis, D. chryseus, D. dunalii, D. pedunculosus, D. subbiglandulosus, two new records: D. lawii and D. macrocarpus, and one
Keyword: Dasymaschalon, Desmoid clade, Magnoliid, plastid genome, phylogenomics analysis