Judul: Aggregate Production Planning of Plastic Product X at CV. Sumber Anugrah Plastik
Abstrak: CV Sumber Anugrah Plastik merupakan perusahaan yang memproduksi produk plastik X. Permasalahan yang dihadapi perusahaan adalah hasil produksi tidak mampu memenuhi jumlah permintaan yang menyebabkan keterlambatan pemenuhan permintaan yang berdampak pada membengkaknya biaya produksi dan menurunnya minat konsumen. Maka dari itu, perusahaan perlu menentukan perencanaan untuk pengendalian produksi dengan meminimalkan biaya. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah mengkaji perencanaan produksi agregat yang dilakukan perusahaan, menentukan metode peramalan yang optimal, dan memilih strategi perencanaan agregat (chase, level. mixed strategy) dengan biaya termurah. Jenis data berupa data primer dan sekunder yang umumnya bersifat kuantitatif. Data diolah dengan perangkat lunak POM for Windows versi 3. Metode trend analysis dengan tingkat kesalahan 28% dan perencanaan strategi chase menjadi pilihan dengan biaya yang dihasilkan paling minimum (Rp 2.285.790.036,-) dan perkiraan laba sebesar (Rp.18.514.701.714,-).
Keyword: aggregate planning, chase strategy, demand forecasting, level strategy, mixed strategy

Judul: Analysis of Aggregate Production Palnning with Fixed Labour Number
Abstrak: Penelitian dilakukan pada sebuah manufaktur plywood (kayu lapis) yang dibangun pada tahun 2014. Perusahaan selalu berupaya menemukan perencanaan produksi yang lebih baik untuk meningkatkan daya saing perusahaan. Salah satu upaya yang sedang dilakukan saat ini adalah mencari strategi perencanaan produksi yang sesuai dengan perusahaan dan memiliki biaya minimum. Penelitian tentang perencanaan produksi perusahaan diperlukan untuk menyeimbangkan jumlah produksi perusahaan dengan permintaan fluktuatif, yang akan berdampak pada biaya produksi yang minimum. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui permintaan yang ada di periode yang akan datang dan mendapatkan perencanaan produksi dengan biaya minum. Penelitian ini dilakukan dengan metode peramalan permintaan menggunakan software minitab dan perencanaan produksi agregat. Berdasarkan hasil analisis diketahui bahwa metode ARMA adalah yang paling tepat untuk digunakan sebagai dasar dalam mengetahui jumlah permintaan plywood di perusahaan pada periode mendatang dengan nilai kesalahan MSE sebesar 0,020. Berdasarkan perhitungan yang ada pada perencanaan agregat yang telah dilakukan menggunakan data permintaan periode mendatang dan data produksi perusahaan diketahui bahwa metode yang memenuhi jumlah permintaan dan memiliki biaya paling rendah adalah metode chase strategy. Metode ini digunakan dengan cara menambah atau mengurangi jumlah jam kerja berdasarkan jumlah permintaan yang ada pada bulan tersebut. Implikasi manajerial yang direkomendasikan bagi perusahaan adalah melakukan peramalan permintaan dengan metode ARMA, kemudia hasil tersebut dapat dimasukan kedalam perencanaan produksi dengan strategi chase, yang akan berdampak pada pengurangan biaya produksi di periode mendatang. Dikarenakan jumlah pekerja yang berlebih, perusahaan dapat melakukan efisiensi pekerja yang terdaftar menjadi 696 karyawan., The research was carried out on a plywood manufacturing plant that was built in 2014. The company always strives to find better production plans to improve the competitiveness of the company. One of the efforts being made now is to find a production planning strategy that is suitable for the company and has a minimum cost. Research on company production planning is needed to balance the amount of company production with fluctuating demand, which will have an impact on minimum production costs. The purpose of this study is to determine the demand in the coming period and obtain production planning with drinking costs. This research was conducted by demand forecasting method using Minitab software and aggregate production planning. Based on the results of the analysis note that the ARMA method is the most appropriate to be used as a basis in knowing the number of plywood requests in the company in the coming period with an MSE error value of 0.020. Based on the existing calculations on aggregate planning that has been done using demand data for the coming period and company production data it is known that the method that meets the number of requests and has the lowest cost is the chase strategy method. This method is used by increasing or reducing the number of hours worked based on the number of requests that exist in that month. Managerial implications recommended for companies are to forecast demand by the ARMA method, then these results can be included in the production planning with a chase strategy, which will have an impact on reducing production costs in the coming period. Due to
Keyword: the number of permanent workers, demand forecasting, aggregate production planning

Judul: Thermal Characteristics and Dynamics of Tropical Cyclone over Western North Pacific Ocean: A Case Study of Typhoon Songda (Chedeng) 2011
Abstrak: The frequent occasion of Tropical Cyclone (TC) over Western North Pacific (WNP) Ocean lies from 10˚N to 26˚N and 121˚E to 170˚E. Sources of TC development come from warm ocean temperature where latent heat is released during condensation processes and subsequently concentrated in the boundary layer. Relative humidity at 850-700 hPa is responsible to produce the most intense storm. Meanwhile, weak vertical wind shear between 850-200 hPa is one of the dynamical factors that lead to the development of TC. Pressure level of 850-200 hPa is chosen to minimize the thermodynamic effect in the lower troposphere. Typhoon Songda (Chedeng in the Philippines) or TSC lasted from May 18th to 30th, 2011 and strengthened into powerful Super Typhoon stage between May 24th and 27th. Long curving track and the exhibition of all sequences of TC life cycle, TSC is then considered as an ideal case of TC. The objective of the study with case of TSC is to investigate the role of thermal characteristics and dynamics on TC intensity. The research is carried out by using Advanced Research of Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF ARW model) version 3.3. Two domains are employed in the model. The first domain situate from 02˚N to 40˚N and 118˚E to 149˚E and cover spatial resolution () of 33.1 km. The second domain situate from 09˚N to 27˚N and 119˚E to 132˚E with of 11 km. Timestep of the model () is 120 seconds. The model is supported by the following physical parameterization, i.e., Yonsei University Scheme (YSU) in the boundary layer, Kain-Fritsch scheme (KF) in the cumulus, and WRF Single-Moment 3-class scheme in the microphysics. Initial meteorological condition prior to the formation of the cyclone is generated using WRF ARW standard-release model. Sensitivity of the model output is obtained from a selected single-parameter change scenarios, namely, 10 % to 20 % decrease and increase of wind shear initial data at 850-200 hPa, and by 10 % to 20 % decrease of relative humidity initial data at 850-700 hPa. The result showed that the negative correlations between wind shear and intensity are found in wind shear scenarios. Wind shears of 10 ms-1 which lead to strengthening of the wind intensity in the early period of Typhoon development are found in wind shear scenarios. The effect of wind shear changes on wind intensity is statistically significant in the 20 % wind shear scenarios. During mature stage, weak wind intensity occurred when wind shear increase as given in the WRF standard-release and the 20 % decreasing scenario. Different situation is found in the 20 % increasing scenario where wind shear tend to weak and lead to strong wind intensity at this stage. Meanwhile, the reduction of moisture supply at 850-700 hPa resulting from 20 % decreasing relative humidity play a major role in the weakening of wind intensity and reduces mechanical energy of the cycle process as much as 300 J kg-1.
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