Judul: Penanganan Overdispersi pada Kasus Jumlah Kematian Akibat Demam Berdarah Dengue di Provinsi Jawa Timur
Abstrak: Demam berdarah dengue (DBD) merupakan salah satu penyakit yang terjadi di daerah tropis dan subtropis di dunia, termasuk Indonesia. Hingga saat ini belum ada vaksin atau obat yang bisa menyembuhkan DBD. Pencegahan penyakit ini adalah hal terbaik yang harus dilakukan. Namun, selain mengurangi jumlah penderita dengan melakukan kegiatan preventif, mengurangi jumlah kematian akibat DBD juga menjadi hal yang perlu diperhatikan. Pada tahun 2017 jumlah kasus DBD di Provinsi Jawa Timur mencapai 7838 kasus dengan jumlah kematian mencapai 105 kasus. Penanganan kasus overdispersi pada Regresi Poisson dapat dilakukan dengan metode Regresi Binomial Negatif dan Regresi Zero-Inflated Poisson. Regresi Binomial Negatif dapat menangani overdispersi pada data jumlah kematian akibat demam berdarah dengue di Provinsi Jawa Timur tahun 2017. Faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi kematian akibat demam berdarah dengue adalah X1 (Persentase rumah tangga berperilaku hidup bersih dan sehat)., Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DBD) is a diseases that occur in tropical and subtropical regions of the world, including Indonesia. Until now there is no vaccine or drug that can cure dengue. Prevention of this disease is the best thing to do. However, in addition to reducing the number of sufferers by carrying out preventive activities, reducing the number of deaths caused by dengue is also something that needs to be considered. In 2017 the number of dengue cases in East Java Province reached 7.838 cases, with the number of deaths reaching 105 cases. Handling cases of overdispersion in Poisson Regression can be done by Negative Binomial Regression and Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression. Negative Binomial Regression can handle overdispersed data. Factors that affect cases of death due to dengue hemorrhagic fever are X1 (percentage of household living clean and healty).
Keyword: Demam berdarah dengue, Overdispersi, Regresi Binomial Negatif, Regresi Poisson, Regresi Zero Inflated Poisson

Judul: Penerapan Regresi Binomial Negatif untuk  Mengatasi Overdispersi pada Regresi Poisson  Kasus Demam Berdarah di Jawa Barat
Abstrak: Demam berdarah dengue (DBD) telah menjadi penyakit endemik berbagai kota besar di Indonesia, termasuk Jawa Barat sebagai provinsi dengan jumlah kasus tertinggi. Jumlah kasus DBD merupakan data cacah yang mengikuti sebaran Poisson. Model regresi paling sederhana dalam memodelkan data cacahan adalah regresi Poisson. Namun, pada penerapannya regresi Poisson mengalami masalah overdispersi. Penanganan overdispersi pada regresi Poisson dapat ditangani menggunakan regresi binomial negatif. Pada penelitian ini dilakukan pemodelan regresi binomial negatif dalam menganalisis data jumlah kasus demam berdarah di Jawa Barat yang mengalami overdispersi. Hasil pada penelitian ini adalah regresi binomial negatif merupakan model yang lebih baik dibandingkan regresi Poisson berdasarkan nilai AIC dan BIC yang diperoleh. Peubah-peubah yang terbukti berpengaruh signifikan terhadap jumlah kasus demam berdarah di Jawa Barat diantaranya adalah persentase penduduk miskin, kepadatan penduduk, dan rasio dokter umum terhadap puskesmas., Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) has become an endemic disease in many big cities in Indonesia, including West Java as the province with the highest number of cases. The number of DHF cases is a count data that follows the Poisson distribution. The simplest regression model for count data is Poisson regression. However, in its application, Poisson regression has an overdispersion problem. Overdispersion in Poisson regression can be handled using negative binomial regression. In this study, negative binomial regression will be carried out for modelling the number of dengue fever case in West Java with overdispersion conditions. This study showed that negative binomial regression model perfomed better than Poisson regression based on the obtained AIC and BIC values. The variables that have been shown to have a significant effect on the number of dengue fever cases in West Java included the percentage of poor people, population density, and the ratio of general practitioners to puskesmas.
Keyword: dengue hemorrhagic fever, overdispersion, poisson regresision, negative binomial regression

Judul: Characterizations of low alloy steel sae 4422  plated with chromic acid (Cro3)
Abstrak: Characterizations of low alloy steel SAE 4422 plated with chromic acid (CrOrO3) was use Optical Microscopy (OM), Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), X-Ray Diffraction (XRD), RD),Energy Dispersive Analysis of X-Ray (EDAX), Hardness Test and Roughness Test. Microstructures analysis exhibits cracks and grain boundaries microcracks as a characteristics of chrome metal found at plating metal. Perlite and Ferrite as grains of steel found at base metal with grain boundaries around it. Phase analysis of plating metal appropriate to chrome metal with lattice constant (a) is 2.559 Å and phase analysis of base metal appropriate to iron ferrite with lattice constant (a) is 3.318 Å. Both plating and base metal have cubic system. Chemical analysis of plating metal at surface section exhibits that cracks area have highest value of carbon element compare with grains and grains boundaries area. While chemical analysis of base metal at cross section exhibits that perlite have highest value of carbon element compare with ferrite and grain boundaries. The hardness value of plating metal at surface section and cross section are 753 and 637 VHN. While, the hardness value of base metal and interface area at cross section are 205 and 373 VHN. The roughness value at measurement points of chrome surface for as received sample are 0.445 μm. Observation used Optical Microscopy and Scanning Electron Microscopy exhibits surface irregularities combine to form surface texture of plating metal at surface section.
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