Judul: The impact of oil fuel price subsidy policy on fiscal and national income performance
Abstrak: The objectives of this study was to analyze the impact of oil fuel price subsidy policy on fiscal and national income performance. A simultaneous equestions econometric model of oil fuel price subsidy was estimated using Two – Stage Least Squares (2SLS) method and SYSLIN procedure for the data set period of 1987-2005. The validation model of the oil fuel price subsidy policy used NEWTON method and SIMNLIN procedure. The government policy to increase oil fuel price subsidy showed that surplus of balance of trade was decreased, and the economic growth was decreased. However, the number of poor people was decreased because the inflation rate was decreased. The government policy to decrease oil fuel price subsidy showed that surplus of balance of trade was increased, fiscal deficit was decreased, and the economic growth was increased. However, the number of poor of people was decreased because inflation rate was decreased and income was increased. As the conclusion, the government policy to decrease oil fuel price subsidy was need to increase the surplus of balance of trade, decrease the deficit fiscal, increase the economic growth, and decrease the number of poor people.
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Judul: The impact of oil fuel price subsidy policy on economic performance and poverty in Indonesia
Abstrak: The objectives of this study were to analyze the factors that influence the supply and demand of oil fuel and to analyze the impact of oil fuel price subsidy policy on economic performance, poverty, and welfare in Indonesia. A simultaneous econometric model of Indonesia oil fuel price subsidy was estimated using a two stage least squares (2SLS) method and SYSLIN procedure for the data set period of 1986-2006. The forecast simulation was set for the period 2010- 2014 with NEWTON method and SIMNLIN procedure. The supply of oil fuel, which was represented by the amount imported, was influenced negatively by its world price and positively by its consumption, consumen price index, and its lag endogenous. The demand for oil fuel was influenced negatively by its retail price and positively by its consumption, its substitutes price, and its lag endogenous. The price subsidy of oil fuel was influenced positively by its world price, domestic exchange rate, government domestic revenue, and its lag endogenous. The price subsidy of oil fuel, except LPG, was elastic against world price of crude oil and domestic exchange rate in the short and long run. The forecast simulation of increases of world crude oil price was resulted in the increase of retail oil fuel price, decreasing economic growth, and increasing the inflation and poverty rate. The government policy to decrease oil fuel subsidy will result in deteriorating the economic performance, poverty alleviation program, and also welfare will be in large deficit. The less severe result happen when government applied kerosene conversion program to LPG. The deteriorating impact of the last two simulation were likely caused by the drop of government expenditure and the negative economic growth altogether. In such developing country like Indonesia, the role of government expenditure was central and important in boosting the economic. Such hypothesis was proven when oil fuel subsidy decreases and the level of government expenditure was kept constant, the result was surprisingly positive to economic performance and poverty alleviation program, even though the sustainable fiscal policy will be rather violated. To overcome the negative impact of the decreasing of oil fuel price subsidy and kerosene conversion program to LPG, government should kept the fiscal budget constant through budget reallocation strategy. By doing this, there were budget available for establishing fiscal space or putting more fund to strategic and most important development program including compensation program for the poor as well as poverty alleviation programs.
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Judul: Penggunaan Penanda Molekuler Untuk Penentuan Jenis Kelamin Burung Betet Jawa (Psittacula alexarzdri ulemndri)
Abstrak: Determinasi seks burung-burung monomorfik yang tidak mempunyai dimofisme seksual akan sangat sulit hanya dengan memperhatikan ciri-ciri morfologinya saja. Teknik molekuler dengan analisis DNA pada fragmen CHDl-Z dan CHDI-W dapat membantu dalam kasus ini. Sampel darah burung yang telah dipurifikasi kemudian diamplifikasi dengan teknik PCR @o[ymerase cliairr ~eaclioil)m enggunakan primer P8.3 dan P2 (Griffith el a/. 1998, Griffith R 2000). Produk hasil PCR dimigrasikan pada gel agarose 1.2% yang kemudian divisualisasikan dengan W (ultra violet) transluminator untuk melihat penampakkan fragmen-fragmen DNAnya. Penentuan jenis kelamin pada burung menggunakan sistem determinasi seks WIZ (Griffith 2000). Jenis kelamin betina ditandai dengan munculnya 2 fragmen DNA dan sebaliknya jenis kelamin jantan dengan 1 fragmen DNA. Dan 20 sampel darah burung betet jawa (Psillacftla alexarrdri nlexatrdri) yang diuji terarnplifikasi dengan baik dan diperoleh ukuran sebesar 382 bp untuk kromosom Z, serta 400 bp untuk kromosom W, dan dari hasil analisis DNA ini diperoleh 10 sampel adalah betina dan sisanya jantan. Berdasarkan hasil uji silang pengecekan jenis kelamin dengan karakter morfologi menunjukkan bahwa teknik molekuler dalam ha1 determinasi seks pada burung-bumng monomorfjk seperti betet sangat efektif untuk membedakan jenis kelamin burung-burung muda dan dewasa.
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