Judul: Aplikasi Change Point Analysis (CPA) pada Data Curah Hujan Harian
Abstrak: The highly change on the rainfall average can be analyzed by using the Change Point Analysis (CPA). At any change point, CPA analyzes it in detail according to the confidence level dan confidence interval which is obtained by bootstrap methods. CPA was done on daily rainfall data of wet months in October to March 1996, 1999, 2002, 2007, and 2008 at Pondok Betung Jakarta station as well as in 2007 and 2008 at Darmaga Bogor station. The results show that CPA can detect the average changes when rainfall is high at Pondok Betung Jakarta and Darmaga Bogor station in January and February. Besides to analyze the daily average change of rainfall using CPA which is based on historical data, forecasting using ARIMA model was also conducted and the pattern forecasted rainfall was also analyzed using CPA. However, ARIMA model (0,1,1) did not precisely forecast the daily rainfall so the pattern of change was not detected well.
Keyword: CUSUM, Rainfall, CPA, Bootstrap, ARIMA

Judul: The Time Varying Distribution Analysis for Rainfall and Air Temperature Data in Jakarta on Future Climate Change
Abstrak: Indonesia rentan terhadap perubahan iklim (curah hujan dan suhu udara) yang dapat meningkatkan peluang bencana klimatis. Analisis risiko yang terorganisir merupakan rencana strategi untuk meminimalisir dampak yang terjadi. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah mengestimasi parameter time varying distribution untuk distribusi normal, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), dan lognormal menggunakan algoritma fminsearch dan MLE pada data curah hujan dan suhu udara di Jakarta, serta memvisualisasikan dan menganalisis time varying distribution terbaik. Metode Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) digunakan untuk estimasi parameter distribusi stasioner. Algoritma fminsearch digunakan untuk estimasi parameter distribusi stasioner dan tak-stasioner. Nilai selisih tertinggi dari hasil parameter distribusi stasioner dari kedua metode adalah 5.3768 mm untuk data curah hujan dan 0.2670, Indonesia is vulnerable to climate changes (in term of rainfall and air temperature) which can increase the chances of climactic disasters. An organized risk analysis is a strategic plan to minimize the impact of the climate changes. The purpose of this study is to estimate the time varying distribution parameters for normal, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), and lognormal distributions using fminsearch and MLE algorithms on rainfall and air temperature data in Jakarta, as well as to visualize and analyze the best time varying distribution. The Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method is used to estimate stationary distribution parameters. The fminsearch algorithm is used to estimate stationary and non-stationary distribution parameters. The highest difference value of the stationary distribution parameter results of the two methods was 5.3768 mm for rainfall data and 0.2670
Keyword: Air Temperature, rainfall, Fminsearh Algorithm, Maximum Likelihood Estimation, Parameter Estimation

Judul: Trichomonas Gallinae Penyebab Trichomonosis Pada Unggas
Abstrak: Trichomonas gallinae adalah protozoa yang bergerak aktof dengan keempat flagella yang mempunyai layar dan pada salah satu sisinya terdapat membran seperti sirip ikan yang berombak. Spesies dari genus Trichomonas ini mempunyai arti penting pada unggas, karena dapat menyebabkan infeksi pada alat pencernaan bagian atas.
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