Judul: Dampak kebijakan fiskal dan sektor hulu migas terhadap perekonomian Provinsi Riau
Abstrak: Riau economy depends on oil-gas sector, both directly and indirectly. Therefore, anticipating negative impacts of declining crude oil reserve is very essential to conduct, because it will affect on decreasing oil production, in which eventually reduces oil-gas sector contribution in the economy. The purpose of this study is to construct a model of Oil-Gas and Riau economy, that use to predict the impact of the crude oil reserves declining, and the impact of fiscal and upstream oil-gas sector policy towards Riau province economy situation in year 2012 up to 2035. The econometric model is built using simultaneous equations system, consisted of 22 structural equations and 13 identity equations. Structural equations is estimated with 2SLS and OLS using Econometric Views (eviews) software version 5.0. Data used are yearly data series from 1980 to 2006. Simulation and forecasting results indicate that economic output from oil-gas sector declines sharply corresponding to crude oil production. Meanwhile, outputs from agricultural and and other sectors increase relatively small. Output decrease from oil-gas sector is unable to be covered by economic increase from other non oil-gas sectors, resulting in average of 1.23% decline per year on total economic output following declining oil production trend. Other impact is increasing unemployment rate and poverty. In order to reduce negative impacts, government intervention is required. Five scenarios on government policies have been made in this study, consisted of two policy scenarios regarding crude oil price formulation, policy to increase cash call, policy to decrease interest rate, and policy to increase local government development expenditure. Research shows that the fourth policy, which is reducing interest rate, is the most effective policy scenario compared to four other policies. However, that policy scenario seems unable to restore Riau province economic peak that happens in 2017.
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Judul: Keterkaitan antara Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Ketimpangan Pendapatan, dan Pengentasan Kemiskinan di Provinsi Riau 2002-2008
Abstrak: Pembangunan ekonomi berkaitan dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi dan disertai dengan perubahan pada distribusi output dan struktur ekonomi (Nafziger, 2006). Idealnya, pembangunan ekonomi akan menghasilkan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi sekaligus meningkatkan kesejahteraan kepada segenap masyarakat. Pertumbuhan ekonomi, ketimpangan pendapatan, dan kemiskinan adalah isu-isu yang selalu menarik untuk dipelajari. Provinsi Riau adalah salah satu provinsi terkaya di Indonesia karena memiliki sumber daya alam yang tidak dapat diperbaharui berupa minyak bumi. Nilai produk domestik regional bruto (PDRB) pada tahun 2008 sebesar Rp 276,40 trilyun dengan pendapatan per kapita sebesar Rp 53,26 juta. Provinsi Riau mengalami pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan cukup pesat, yakni rata-rata 8,35 persen per tahun selama periode 2002-2008. Namun jika memasukkan unsur minyak dan gas (migas), pertumbuhannya hanya sebesar 3,95 persen per tahun untuk periode yang sama. Berdasarkan indeks Gini tahun 2002-2008, secara umum di Provinsi Riau terjadi kenaikan dari sekitar 0,273 menjadi 0,306. Kenaikan ini menunjukkan terjadinya kenaikan ketimpangan antar individu. Kenaikan ketimpangan juga terjadi pada sebagian besar kabupaten/kota di Provinsi Riau, ini berarti pertumbuhan ekonomi yang dicapai pada periode 2002-2008 juga membawa dampak berupa kenaikan ketimpangan pendapatan antar individu. Sejalan dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang cukup tinggi pada periode tersebut, persentase penduduk miskin di Provinsi Riau menurun, dari sekitar 15,39 persen pada tahun 2002 menjadi 10,63 persen pada tahun 2008.
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Judul: Penggunaan Gen Chromo Helicase DNA Binding (CHD) Sebagai Marker Penentu Jenis Kelamin pada Aves
Abstrak: Many avian spesies are difficult to distinguish between male and female based on their morphology. Male and female must be kept in the same cage for reproduction. DNA-based sex identification provides a solution. CHD genes are preserved within avian Z and W sex chromosomes. The aim of this research was to determine avians sex based on CHD gene using P2 and P8 primers. DNA was extracted from avians blood and feather. The Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) with a single of primers P2 and P8 on a 2% agarose gel was used to decide the avian sex of chickens, quails, ducks, rock pigeons, common hill myna, yellow-crested cockatoos, and salmon-crested cockatoos. Sex identifification of avian spesies based on bands the Z and W, males had a single band (ZZ), and females had two (ZW) on a agarose gel. The CHD gene amplified by the P2 and P8 primers had the fragment size of 300-400 bp. P2 dan P8 primers had no success for sex identification in chickens, quails and ducks. However, the primers could be used to identify the sex of rock pigeons, common hill myna, yellow-crested cockatoos and salmon-crested cockatoos.
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