Judul: Impact of government spending on economic performance and poverty allevation in term of fiscal decentralization
Abstrak: The purposes of this study were to analyze the factors affecting the revenue and allocation of national budget and local government spending and its impact on the economy, flypaper effect, and to formulate policy recommendations in term of more effective and efficient government spending. This study used pooled data at the provincial level on period 2005-2010 and a simultaneous equations model applied to capture the behaviour of each variables. The results were: (1) potential local goverment revenue, fiscal need, and central government transfer were factors that determined the local goverment revenue, sharing revenue, and central government transfer, (2) flypaper effect occured on local expenditures, (3) decocentration funding and assistant task in agricultural sector had more affect on the growth of the agricultural sector, (4) sectoral budget allocation has a positive impact on the economic growth, employment, welfare and poverty allevation, especialy on Indonesia Easterm Regions and (5) The increased general fund allocation (DAU) had a greatest impact on fiscal performance and the regional economy (6) increase revenue-sharing and specific fund had positive impact on economic growth and reduce local government depedency on central government budget. Policy recommendations were: (1) enhancing the sources of local revenue potentially to be the alternative policy due to the fact that increased DAU provide the greatest impact to the regional economy, but will lead to increased dependency to the central government, then increasing revenue sharing may improve fiscal capacity and economic performance, (2) realocation of routine spending to development spending may improve economic performance, (3) designing the clearly authorities between central and local government on several sectors, including on the agricultural development that will be able to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of government spending, and (4) Future studies need to be done with the data at the district or town level, and separate spesific fund by sector.
Keyword: fiscal decentralization, deconcentration and assistance tasks, flypaper effect, regional economy.

Judul: Desentralisasi Fiskal dan Pengaruhnya Terhadap Perekonomian di Indonesia
Abstrak: Fiscal decentralization policy started in 2001 was a “big bang” from a centralistic into decentralistic government. The decentralistic government focuses on triple track strategy which are pro growth, pro job and pro poor as its macroeconomic and sectoral development objectives. Based on the concepts and the implementations of the policy in Indonesia, the amount of transfers fund to region and the possibilities of increasing potential local revenue should have positive related to the effort to increase society wealth through economic growth by creating job creation and decrease poverty. This research using panel data regression analysis to describe the relation between fiscal decentralization with economic growth, poverty and unemployement rate. The research results show that the local finance performance (measured by fiscal decentralization degree and local finance independency ratio) is low. Just then, in the decentralization era the local-central government dependency is increase. The research also encounter that fiscal decentralization policy affects to the increasing of economic growth rate (in small amount), unemployment rate and poverty. The part of local government budget that have positive affect to the economic growth are revenue sharing, specific allocation funds, local tax revenue and local government corporation, while local retribution revenue has negative affect. Meanwhile, total government expenditure affects negatively to the poverty and open unemployment rate.
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Judul: Pemodelan Selang Kelahiran Anak Pertama
Abstrak: Seiang kelahiran anak pertam3 mcrupakan jarak waktu dari umur pcrkawinan pcrtama pada \Vanila sampai umur kclahiran anak pertama. Selang kelahiran anak pertama dapal digunakan scbagai penduga kesuburan \Vanila karena pada umumnya pasangan suami islri yang bam menikah tidak menunda kelahiran anak pertama
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