Judul: Comparison of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Average-Based Fuzzy Time Series in Forecasting Stock Closing Price (Case study: PT Adaro Energy Tbk)
Abstrak: Perkembangan pada bidang ekonomi menyebabkan kemunculan berbagai metode untuk memenuhi kebutuhan finansial. Salah satunya adalah dengan berinvestasi di pasar saham. Diperlukan metode peramalan untuk mengetahui harga masa depan dari suatu saham. Penelitian ini bertujuan melakukan peramalan harga penutupan saham dengan bantuan metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) dan Average-Based Fuzzy Time Series (FTS). Data yang digunakan adalah data historis harga penutupan saham PT Adaro Energy Tbk periode 12 April 2021 hingga 28 April 2022. Peramalan dengan metode ARIMA menghasilkan nilai MAPE sebesar 10,75% dan RMSE sebesar 372,11 sedangkan FTS berbasis rataan menghasilkan nilai MAPE sebesar 2,74% dan RMSE sebesar 125,49. Nilai MAPE dan RMSE yang dihasilkan metode FTS berbasis rataan lebih baik dibanding ARIMA, sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa metode FTS berbasis rataan lebih baik daripada ARIMA dalam meramalkan harga penutupan saham PT. Adaro Energy Tbk. Peramalan 10 hari ke depan dengan metode FTS berbasis rataan menghasilkan MAPE sebesar 2,57% dan RMSE sebesar 105,92., The advances in the field of economics has made many methods of fulfilling financial needs emerge. One of those methods is investing in the stock market. Prediction methods are needed to know the future price of stocks. This study aims to forecast stock closing price using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Average-Based Fuzzy Time Series (FTS). The data used in this study is historical stock closing price data of PT. Adaro Energy Tbk from April 12th 2021 to April 28th 2022. Forecasting with ARIMA produced MAPE value of 10,75% and RMSE of 372,11 while forecasting with average-based FTS produced MAPE value of 2,74% and RMSE of 125,49. The values of MAPE and RMSE produced by the average-based FTS method are better than ARIMA, which indicate that average-based FTS is better than ARIMA in forecasting stock closing price of PT. Adaro Energy Tbk. A forecast of 10 days ahead using average-based FTS produced a MAPE score of 2,57% and RMSE score of 105,92.
Keyword: ARIMA, fuzzy time series, stocks, forecast

Judul: Comparative Analysis of ARIMA and Fuzzy Time Series Methods for Stock Price Forecasting in the Energy Sector (Case Study: PT XYZ)
Abstrak: Peramalan merupakan hal penting untuk dapat memaksimalkan keuntungan dengan memprediksi di masa mendatang. Metode peramalan terus dikembangkan hingga dibagi menjadi metode konvensional dan soft-computing yang bertujuan untuk mendapatkan galat terkecil. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membandingkan kinerja prediksi metode ARIMA dan Fuzzy Time Series menggunakan model Saxena-Easo. Data yang digunakan adalah data harian dari PT XYZ sejak 1 Januari 2022 hingga 31 Desember 2022. Evaluasi kinerja model dilakukan dengan membandingkan nilai Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) untuk menentukan model yang lebih unggul. Hasilnya, baik model ARIMA(0,1,1) maupun Fuzzy Time Series merupakan model yang baik. MAPE yang dihasilkan oleh model ARIMA(0,1,1) sebesar 4,78% sementara Fuzzy Time Series dengan model Saxena-Easo sebesar 1,72%. Secara visual model ARIMA(0,1,1) menghasilkan peramalan garis lurus yang terus meningkat, sementara metode Fuzzy Time Series dengan model Saxena-Easo cenderung mengikuti pola data aktual. Sehingga didapatkan kesimpulan bahwa metode Fuzzy Time Series dengan model Saxena-Easo memiliki kinerja yang lebih baik daripada model ARIMA dalam meramal data non-linear., Forecasting is crucial for maximizing profits by predicting future prices. Forecasting methods have evolved, braching into conventional and soft-computing techniques aimed at minimizing prediction errors. The objective is to compare the predictive performance of ARIMA and Fuzzy Time Series models using the Saxena-Easo framework. Daily data from PT XYZ spanning from January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2022, is employed in this study. Model performance is assessed by comparing the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values to determine the superior model. Both the ARIMA(0,1,1) and Fuzzy Time Series models demonstrate strong predictive capabilities. ARIMA(0,1,1) yields a MAPE of 4.78%, while Fuzzy Time Series with the Saxena-Easo model achieves an even lower MAPE of 1.72%. Visually, ARIMA(0,1,1) generates a steadily increasing linear forecast, whereas the Fuzzy Time Series method with the Saxena-Easo model closely tracks the actual data pattern. Consequently, it can be concluded that the Fuzzy Time Series method with the Saxena-Easo model outperforms the ARIMA model in forecasting non-linear data.
Keyword: ARIMA, forecasting, fuzzy time series, saxena-easo model

Judul: Biology Of Columbia Lance Nematode (Hoplolaimus Columbus Sher) On Soybean Excised Root Culture
Abstrak: S. Supramana, S. A. Lewis,.J. D. Mueller, B. A. Fortnum, and R. E. Ballard. 2001. Biology of Columbia lance nematod. ~ (Hoplolaimus columbus Sher) on soybean excised root culture. Nematropica 31 :283-2~)O. Feeding, egg development and oviposition, embryology, and postembtyonic development or Hoplolaimus col'lmbuswere observed on soybean (cultivar Hutcheson) excised root culture in Gam borg's B5 medium (pH 5.7,1.3% agar). Petri plate sterile cultures were placed inverted on a heated microscope stage (30°C) and observations were conducted using a color video camera and a time lapse digital videoca:;sette recorder. Oocytes were obsetved in each gonad 38 hours after feeding commenced and all egg possessing a terminal stalk was laid 96 hours later. Eggs were deposited it, the one-celled stag~ and a total of 217 hours (9 days) was required for a"newly laid egg to develop into a hatching second-stage juvenile at 30°C. Postembryonic development consisted of threejuvenile stages and an adult female with prior feeding occurring before molts and oviposition. The nematode fed ectoparasiticallyon the subepidermal cells and endoparasitically in the cortex and outer vascular tissue and remained at the infection site for 2·9 days. Key words: Columbia lance nematode, embryology, excised root culture, feeding behavior, HOfilo{aimus columbus, life cycle, oviposition, postembryonic development, soybean.
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