Judul: Autoregressive vector analysis for the rainfall model (a case study of rainfall in Darmaga, Bogor in 2001 – 2009)
Abstrak: Weather and climate are natural signs that are very needed by humans and other organisms living on earth. Both of them have elements such as light, air humadity, air temperature, air pressure, wind (including direction and speed), and rainfall. The updated data about weather and climate, with its forecast, becomes important for some periods in the future. The purpose of this research is referred to the use of Vector Autoregressive (VAR) to develop the rainfall model. Model forming for each variable was using weather element data in 2001 – 2008, while model validation was using data in January – December 2009. The VAR model of rainfall variable in montht was significantly influenced by wind speed variable in month t-1. Then, these two VAR application model was stated in impuls response function and variance decomposition. For VAR model validation, MAPE was used for each model. In rainfall forecast for three months later, MAPE value that was achieved was 49,600.
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Judul: Perbandingan Model Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) dan Seasonal ARIMAX (SARIMAX) untuk Memprediksi Curah Hujan Kabupaten Bogor
Abstrak: Perubahan iklim yang dapat menyebabkan terjadinya perubahan siklus hidrologi berupa peningkatan suhu dan kelembaban udara yang secara langsung berdampak pada curah hujan dan memicu terjadinya bencana hidrometeorologi, seperti banjir yang terjadi di Indonesia, salah satunya pada Kabupaten Bogor. Dampak negatif tersebut memerlukan mitigasi dengan melakukan analisis prediksi curah hujan, antara lain menggunakan model Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) dan SARIMA with exogenous factors (SARIMAX). Adapun tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah membandingkan kinerja model SARIMA dan SARIMAX yang terbentuk serta melakukan prediksi selama 10 bulan ke depan dengan menggunakan model terbaik yang dipilih. Data yang digunakan sebagai peubah endogen adalah intensitas curah hujan bulanan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model SARIMAX(0,1,1)(1,1,1)12 dengan faktor eksogen berupa rataan bulanan dalam kelembaban udara, lama penyinaran matahari, dan suhu udara menunjukkan model terbaik pada penelitian ini. Model tersebut dibentuk dengan menggunakan 70% data latih dan 30% data uji yang menghasilkan MAPE sebesar 17.98% dengan korelasi model aktual dan prediksi sebesar 0.872., Climate change can cause changes in the hydrological cycle with an increase of temperature and humidity which directly affects rainfall and triggers hydrometeorological disasters, such as floods that occur in Indonesia, which one is Bogor Regency. Due to these negative impacts, it is necessary to mitigate by analyzing rainfall predictions, for example using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and SARIMA with exogenous factors (SARIMAX) models. The purpose of this research is to compare the model performance of the SARIMA and SARIMAX models and to make predictions for the next 10 months using the best model. The data used as endogenous variable is monthly rainfall intensity. The results showed that the SARIMAX(0,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model with exogenous factors such as monthly averages in air humidity, long exposure sunlight, and air temperature showed the best model in this research. The model was formed using 70% training data and 30% test data which resulted in a MAPE of 17.98% with a correlation of actual and predicted models of 0.872.
Keyword: predictions, rainfall, SARIMA, SARIMAX

Judul: Karakteritsik kimia dan organoleptik tablet effervescent putih telur bersitarasa lemon dengan konsentrasi effervescent mix yang berbeda
Abstrak: Egg is an animal origin food product which has high nutritional value especially protein. Cholesterol content of eggs is only found in egg yolk, on the other hand albumen does not countain cholesterol at all but high content of protein, so it can be used as a free cholesterol-protein sources. The application of albumen as egg instant drink effervescent tablet can be an alternative of protein source for people who need free-cholesterol diet. It can also become an egg product diversification.
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