Judul: Evaluasi Terhadap Anggapan-Anggapan Yang Melandasi Analisis Ragam Suatu Percobaan Pemupukan Fosfat Terhadap Padi Varietas IR-36
Abstrak: Tulisan ini bertujuan menelaah dipenuhi tidaknya anggapan-anggapan dasar yang melandasi analisis ragam yaitu: keaditifan model, kenormalan dan kebebasan galat acak percobaan, dan kehomogenan ragam galat acak percobaan. Dalam memeriksa anggapan-anggapan tersebut digunakan uji-uji yaitu: (1) uji Tukey, untuk menguji keaditifan model (2) uji Bartlett, untuk menguji kehomogenan ragam galat acak percobaan (3) uji Durbin-Watson, untuk menguji kebebasan galat acak percobaan (4) uji Shapiro-Wilk, untuk menguji kenormalan galat acak percobaan. Hasil pengujian tanpa memperhatikan anggapan-anggapan ternyata tidak sama dengan hasil pengujian dengan memperhatikan keterpenuhan dan keberlakuan anggapan-anggapan yang melandasi analisis ragam.
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Judul: Evaluation to an Analysis of Variance Having Negatif Variance Component Estimate
Abstrak: Karya tulis ini mengevaluasi suatu analisis ragam yang menghasilkan dugaan komponen ragam bernilai negatif dengan data hasil percobaan mahasiswa S1, Fakultas Pertanian, IPB, tentang pengujian pengaruh nitrogen dan fosfor pada produksi jagung varietas N-6, di Cikarawang, Bogor. Rancangan perlakuannya, faktorial lengkap 3X3. Satuan percobaan berupa petak 4mx5m netto. Jarak antar petak 200 cm dan antar tanaman 100 cm. Rancangan lingkungannya, RAKL berulang tiga dengan perlakuan berupa dosis nitrogen, yaitu: 0, 100, 200 kg N/ha dan dosis fosfor, yaitu: 0, 50, 100 kg P₂O/ha. Respons yang diamati: bobot basalı dan bobot kering tongkol (kg/petak), bobot pipilan, bobot 100 biji dan 1000 biji (g/petak). Karya tulis ini menggunakan bobot basah tongkol (kg/petak). Adanya dugaan komponen ragam bernilai negatif biasanya dialamatkan pada kekeliruan model termasuk anggapan-anggapan yang melandasinya. Antisipasi yang dilakukan biasanya memperbaiki model termasuk mungkin meniadakan komponen itu dari model. Pada kajian ini penulis tidak menempuh cara itu, tetapi memperbaiki model dengan memeriksa anggapan-anggapan yang melandasi analisis ragam lalu memperbaikinya agar anggapan itu terpenuhi. Koefisien determinasi model awal, R²-39.46%. Koefisien kemgaman respons-nya 7.4% Nilai F- hitung untuk interaksi nitrogen x fosfor (Fap) < 1, yaitu 0.4. Dugaan komponen ragam interaksi nitrogen x fosfor ialah -0.316. Initial Data Assesment dan diagnosa sisaan menunjukkan adanya penyimpangan anggapan-anggapan analisis ragam, yaitu ketaksamaan dan ketakbebasan ragam galat serta ketaknormalan sebaran sisaan. Ada 3 data cacat yang memiliki nilai mutlak si saan dibaku dan Dfits lebih besar dari 2. Perbaikan melalui transformasi Box dan Cox, didapat nilai A-1, yang berarti transformasi tidak diperlukan. Penggunaan WLS, tidak meningkatkan nilai R² dan menambah jumlah nilai F-hitung 1. Penyisihan data cacat, ternyata memberikan perbaikan yang memadai, yaitu R meningkat menjadi 65.9% dan koefisien keragaman respons menjadi 5.3%, nilai Fap menjadi 1.57 dan anggapan diperlukan relatif terpenuhi. Adapun persamaan hasil analisis regresi permukaan respons adalah: 8.19+90E-6N-40E-682E-3P+92E-5P+2.9E-4NP-2.0E-60.0E-6NP
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Judul: Thermal Characteristics and Dynamics of Tropical Cyclone over Western North Pacific Ocean: A Case Study of Typhoon Songda (Chedeng) 2011
Abstrak: The frequent occasion of Tropical Cyclone (TC) over Western North Pacific (WNP) Ocean lies from 10˚N to 26˚N and 121˚E to 170˚E. Sources of TC development come from warm ocean temperature where latent heat is released during condensation processes and subsequently concentrated in the boundary layer. Relative humidity at 850-700 hPa is responsible to produce the most intense storm. Meanwhile, weak vertical wind shear between 850-200 hPa is one of the dynamical factors that lead to the development of TC. Pressure level of 850-200 hPa is chosen to minimize the thermodynamic effect in the lower troposphere. Typhoon Songda (Chedeng in the Philippines) or TSC lasted from May 18th to 30th, 2011 and strengthened into powerful Super Typhoon stage between May 24th and 27th. Long curving track and the exhibition of all sequences of TC life cycle, TSC is then considered as an ideal case of TC. The objective of the study with case of TSC is to investigate the role of thermal characteristics and dynamics on TC intensity. The research is carried out by using Advanced Research of Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF ARW model) version 3.3. Two domains are employed in the model. The first domain situate from 02˚N to 40˚N and 118˚E to 149˚E and cover spatial resolution () of 33.1 km. The second domain situate from 09˚N to 27˚N and 119˚E to 132˚E with of 11 km. Timestep of the model () is 120 seconds. The model is supported by the following physical parameterization, i.e., Yonsei University Scheme (YSU) in the boundary layer, Kain-Fritsch scheme (KF) in the cumulus, and WRF Single-Moment 3-class scheme in the microphysics. Initial meteorological condition prior to the formation of the cyclone is generated using WRF ARW standard-release model. Sensitivity of the model output is obtained from a selected single-parameter change scenarios, namely, 10 % to 20 % decrease and increase of wind shear initial data at 850-200 hPa, and by 10 % to 20 % decrease of relative humidity initial data at 850-700 hPa. The result showed that the negative correlations between wind shear and intensity are found in wind shear scenarios. Wind shears of 10 ms-1 which lead to strengthening of the wind intensity in the early period of Typhoon development are found in wind shear scenarios. The effect of wind shear changes on wind intensity is statistically significant in the 20 % wind shear scenarios. During mature stage, weak wind intensity occurred when wind shear increase as given in the WRF standard-release and the 20 % decreasing scenario. Different situation is found in the 20 % increasing scenario where wind shear tend to weak and lead to strong wind intensity at this stage. Meanwhile, the reduction of moisture supply at 850-700 hPa resulting from 20 % decreasing relative humidity play a major role in the weakening of wind intensity and reduces mechanical energy of the cycle process as much as 300 J kg-1.
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