Judul: Evaluasi Terhadap Anggapan-Anggapan Yang Melandasi Analisis Ragam Suatu Percobaan Pemupukan Fosfat Terhadap Padi Varietas IR-36
Abstrak: Tulisan ini bertujuan menelaah dipenuhi tidaknya anggapan-anggapan dasar yang melandasi analisis ragam yaitu: keaditifan model, kenormalan dan kebebasan galat acak percobaan, dan kehomogenan ragam galat acak percobaan. Dalam memeriksa anggapan-anggapan tersebut digunakan uji-uji yaitu: (1) uji Tukey, untuk menguji keaditifan model (2) uji Bartlett, untuk menguji kehomogenan ragam galat acak percobaan (3) uji Durbin-Watson, untuk menguji kebebasan galat acak percobaan (4) uji Shapiro-Wilk, untuk menguji kenormalan galat acak percobaan. Hasil pengujian tanpa memperhatikan anggapan-anggapan ternyata tidak sama dengan hasil pengujian dengan memperhatikan keterpenuhan dan keberlakuan anggapan-anggapan yang melandasi analisis ragam.
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Judul: Pemeriksaan Asumsi Analisis Ragam
Abstrak: Analisis ragam merupakan salah satu metode yang sering digunakan untuk analisis data. Dalam percobaan di bidang pertanian, pengujian asumsi analisis ragam jarang dilakukan. Padahal, untuk memperoleh kesimpulan yang dapat dipercaya perlu dilakukan pengujian asumsi. Pengujian asumsi yang mendasari analisis ragam adalah pengaruh perlakuan dan lingkungan bersifat aditif, galat percobaan bersifat acak, menyebar bebas dan normal di sekitar nilai tengah nol dan ragam sama. Hasil pemeriksaan asumsi analisis ragam terhadap 8 data hasil percobaan rancangan acak kelompok menunjukkan bahwa asumsi keaditifan model, kehomogenan ragam, dan kenormalan galat secara bersama-sama tidak dapat terpenuhi pada data hasil percobaan kacang bogor. Hal ini disebabkan adanya pencilan. Begitu juga dengan asumsi kenormalan galat pada data hasil percobaan kacang kedelai dan padi di Sukamandi yang juga tidak terpenuhi karena pencilan. Terjadinya penyimpangan karena pencilan tidak bisa diperbaiki dengan transformasi data. Asumsi analisis ragam menjadi terpenuhi dengan tidak mengikutsertakan pencilan. Tetapi hal ini tidak disarankan karena dengan menghilangkan pencilan berarti menghilangkan informasi yang seharusnya didapatkan dari pencilan tersebut. Analisis ragam kekar adalah metode yang tepat digunakan untuk meningkatkan kesensitifan pengujian tanpa menghilangkan pencilan.
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Judul: Thermal Characteristics and Dynamics of Tropical Cyclone over Western North Pacific Ocean: A Case Study of Typhoon Songda (Chedeng) 2011
Abstrak: The frequent occasion of Tropical Cyclone (TC) over Western North Pacific (WNP) Ocean lies from 10˚N to 26˚N and 121˚E to 170˚E. Sources of TC development come from warm ocean temperature where latent heat is released during condensation processes and subsequently concentrated in the boundary layer. Relative humidity at 850-700 hPa is responsible to produce the most intense storm. Meanwhile, weak vertical wind shear between 850-200 hPa is one of the dynamical factors that lead to the development of TC. Pressure level of 850-200 hPa is chosen to minimize the thermodynamic effect in the lower troposphere. Typhoon Songda (Chedeng in the Philippines) or TSC lasted from May 18th to 30th, 2011 and strengthened into powerful Super Typhoon stage between May 24th and 27th. Long curving track and the exhibition of all sequences of TC life cycle, TSC is then considered as an ideal case of TC. The objective of the study with case of TSC is to investigate the role of thermal characteristics and dynamics on TC intensity. The research is carried out by using Advanced Research of Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF ARW model) version 3.3. Two domains are employed in the model. The first domain situate from 02˚N to 40˚N and 118˚E to 149˚E and cover spatial resolution () of 33.1 km. The second domain situate from 09˚N to 27˚N and 119˚E to 132˚E with of 11 km. Timestep of the model () is 120 seconds. The model is supported by the following physical parameterization, i.e., Yonsei University Scheme (YSU) in the boundary layer, Kain-Fritsch scheme (KF) in the cumulus, and WRF Single-Moment 3-class scheme in the microphysics. Initial meteorological condition prior to the formation of the cyclone is generated using WRF ARW standard-release model. Sensitivity of the model output is obtained from a selected single-parameter change scenarios, namely, 10 % to 20 % decrease and increase of wind shear initial data at 850-200 hPa, and by 10 % to 20 % decrease of relative humidity initial data at 850-700 hPa. The result showed that the negative correlations between wind shear and intensity are found in wind shear scenarios. Wind shears of 10 ms-1 which lead to strengthening of the wind intensity in the early period of Typhoon development are found in wind shear scenarios. The effect of wind shear changes on wind intensity is statistically significant in the 20 % wind shear scenarios. During mature stage, weak wind intensity occurred when wind shear increase as given in the WRF standard-release and the 20 % decreasing scenario. Different situation is found in the 20 % increasing scenario where wind shear tend to weak and lead to strong wind intensity at this stage. Meanwhile, the reduction of moisture supply at 850-700 hPa resulting from 20 % decreasing relative humidity play a major role in the weakening of wind intensity and reduces mechanical energy of the cycle process as much as 300 J kg-1.
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