Judul: Volatility Analysis and Forecasting of Indonesian Sanitary  Paper Export Prices for the Period 2006–2023
Abstrak: Indonesia merupakan pengekspor kertas sanitasi yang unggul di dunia. Kegiatan ekspor kertas sanitasi dalam jumlah yang tinggi dapat mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi negara. Namun, keseimbangan antara permintaan dan penawaran seringkali tidak tercapai, sehingga berdampak pada terjadinya fluktuasi harga di pasar. Fluktuasi harga tersebut menjadi faktor utama terjadinya volatilitas harga ekspor kertas sanitasi. Jika volatilitas yang terjadi sangat tinggi, akan ada risiko yang harus dihadapi, utamanya oleh penjual. Volatilitas yang tinggi menyebabkan harga sulit untuk diprediksi, sehingga tidak ada kepastian harga di masa depan. Kondisi tersebut akan mengganggu kegiatan ekspor, sehingga perlu adanya langkah antisipasi berupa pembuatan kebijakan oleh pemerintah yang mengacu pada peramalan harga ekspor. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa, meskipun harga ekspor mengalami fluktuasi selama periode 2006–2023, tetapi fluktuasi tersebut tidak menunjukkan adanya clustering volatility. Di samping itu, hasil peramalan harga ekspor dengan model ARIMA (2,1,2) menghasilkan model peramalan yang cenderung mendekati harga ekspor sesungguhnya, sehingga dapat dikatakan bahwa model ARIMA (2,1,2) baik digunakan untuk meramal harga ekspor kertas sanitasi., Indonesia is the top sanitary paper exporter in the world. A high volume of sanitary paper exports can boost the country's economic growth. However, the balance between demand and supply is often not achieved, resulting in price fluctuations in the market. These price fluctuations are a primary factor in sanitary paper export price volatility. If the volatility is over the top, there will be risks that must be faced, especially by sellers. High volatility makes prices hard to predict, so there is no certainty of future prices. This condition will disrupt export activities, so there is a need for anticipatory steps in the form of policy-making by the government that refers to export price forecasting. The analysis results show that, although export prices fluctuated during 2006–2023, the fluctuations did not show any clustering volatility. In addition, the results of export price forecasting with the ARIMA (2,1,2) model produce a forecasting model that tends to be close to the actual export price, so it can be stated that the ARIMA (2,1,2) model is well used to forecast the export price of sanitary paper.
Keyword: ARIMA, export price, sanitary paper, forecasting, volatility

Judul: Chemical Pulp Export Price Volatility
Abstrak: Komoditas unggulan dalam industri hasil hutan yang terus berkembang pesat dan menjadi salah satu penyumbang nilai devisa negara adalah komoditas pulp dan kertas. Produksi pulp Indonesia terus mengalami peningkatan dari tahun ke tahun. Di samping untuk konsumsi domestik, pulp yang diproduksi tersebut juga di ekspor ke berbagai negara di dunia. Harga pulp Indonesia berdasarkan nilai perkembangan ekspor pulp mengalami fluktuasi. Kondisi ini dapat berpengaruh terhadap kegiatan perekonomian, seperti volatilitas harga pulp terhadap kegiatan ekspor. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis dan meramal volatilitas harga bulanan ekspor pulp kimiawi Indonesia pada periode 2006-2022 menggunakan pemodelan volatilitas univariate time series dengan metode analisis Box-Jenksin dan ARCHGARCH. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan model terbaik yang menjelaskan terjadinya volatilitas harga ekspor pulp kimiawi bulanan pada periode 2006-2022 adalah ARIMA (1,1,0) dan ARCH (1).
Keyword: ARIMA, ARCH, harga ekspor, pulp kimiawi, volatilitas

Judul: Penyusunan Overlap Graph menggunakan Suffix Tree pada DNA Sequence
Abstrak: The DNA sequence assembly is very important in genome analysis. This step aims to reconstruct contigous DNA fragment (contigs) from short fragment by concatenating fragments based on the overlap region among them. This method employs overlap graph for solving the problems. In this graph, nodes represent fragments and edges represent overlap. This research developed a software for constructing overlap graph using suffix tree. The evaluation was conducted by measuring the number of nodes, number of edges, and the execution time in many values of minimum overlap. The minimum overlap is defined as the minimum length of substring which is considered as the overlap region between two fragments. The evaluation results showed that the number of nodes, the number of edges, and the execution time were increased with the decreasing of the minimum overlap value.
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