Judul: Application of ARIMA Model and Average-Based Fuzzy Time Series  Method on Shares Forecasting (Case Study: Close Price of PT. United Tractors Tbk Shares)
Abstrak: Terdapat beragam instrumen yang dapat digunakan untuk berinvestasi, salah satunya adalah saham. Berinvestasi dengan membeli sejumlah saham cukup berisiko karena adanya perubahan harga saham yang fluktuatif tiap waktu. Oleh karena itu, dibutuhkan metode peramalan data deret waktu sehingga pengambilan keputusan di kemudian waktu dapat dilakukan lebih akurat. Penelitian ini menerapkan model Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) dan metode Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) berbasis rerata. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini merupakan data harian dari harga penutupan saham PT. United Tractors Tbk periode 2 Januari 2017 – 26 Juni 2020. Peramalan pada data latih dengan metode FTS berbasis rerata menghasilkan MAPE sebesar 1,67% dan RMSE sebesar 590,528 sedangkan model ARIMA menghasilkan nilai MAPE sebesar 2,74% dan RMSE sebesar 978,491. Nilai MAPE dan RMSE pada metode FTS berbasis rerata lebih kecil dibandingkan dengan model ARIMA, sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa metode FTS berbasis rerata bekerja lebih baik dalam meramalkan nilai harga penutupan saham PT. United Tractors Tbk periode 2017 – 2020., There are several instruments that can be used for investment, one of them is shares. Investing by buying shares are pretty risky due to fluctuating price changes overtimes. Therefore, a time series data forecasting is needed so that future decision making can be done more accurately. This research applies Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and average-based Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) method. The data used in this research is daily data of close price of PT. United Tractors Tbk shares start from 2 January 2017 – 26 June 2020. Forecasting on testing data with average-based FTS produces MAPE of 1,67% and RMSE of 590,528 whilst ARIMA model produces MAPE of 2,74% and RMSE of 978,491. MAPE and RMSE values in average-based FTS methods are smaller than ARIMA model, so it can be concluded that average-based FTS works better on forecasting close price of PT. United Tractors Tbk shares for period 2017 – 2020
Keyword: ARIMA, fluctuating, forecasting, Fuzzy Time Series, shares

Judul: Comparative Analysis of ARIMA and Fuzzy Time Series Methods for Stock Price Forecasting in the Energy Sector (Case Study: PT XYZ)
Abstrak: Peramalan merupakan hal penting untuk dapat memaksimalkan keuntungan dengan memprediksi di masa mendatang. Metode peramalan terus dikembangkan hingga dibagi menjadi metode konvensional dan soft-computing yang bertujuan untuk mendapatkan galat terkecil. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membandingkan kinerja prediksi metode ARIMA dan Fuzzy Time Series menggunakan model Saxena-Easo. Data yang digunakan adalah data harian dari PT XYZ sejak 1 Januari 2022 hingga 31 Desember 2022. Evaluasi kinerja model dilakukan dengan membandingkan nilai Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) untuk menentukan model yang lebih unggul. Hasilnya, baik model ARIMA(0,1,1) maupun Fuzzy Time Series merupakan model yang baik. MAPE yang dihasilkan oleh model ARIMA(0,1,1) sebesar 4,78% sementara Fuzzy Time Series dengan model Saxena-Easo sebesar 1,72%. Secara visual model ARIMA(0,1,1) menghasilkan peramalan garis lurus yang terus meningkat, sementara metode Fuzzy Time Series dengan model Saxena-Easo cenderung mengikuti pola data aktual. Sehingga didapatkan kesimpulan bahwa metode Fuzzy Time Series dengan model Saxena-Easo memiliki kinerja yang lebih baik daripada model ARIMA dalam meramal data non-linear., Forecasting is crucial for maximizing profits by predicting future prices. Forecasting methods have evolved, braching into conventional and soft-computing techniques aimed at minimizing prediction errors. The objective is to compare the predictive performance of ARIMA and Fuzzy Time Series models using the Saxena-Easo framework. Daily data from PT XYZ spanning from January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2022, is employed in this study. Model performance is assessed by comparing the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values to determine the superior model. Both the ARIMA(0,1,1) and Fuzzy Time Series models demonstrate strong predictive capabilities. ARIMA(0,1,1) yields a MAPE of 4.78%, while Fuzzy Time Series with the Saxena-Easo model achieves an even lower MAPE of 1.72%. Visually, ARIMA(0,1,1) generates a steadily increasing linear forecast, whereas the Fuzzy Time Series method with the Saxena-Easo model closely tracks the actual data pattern. Consequently, it can be concluded that the Fuzzy Time Series method with the Saxena-Easo model outperforms the ARIMA model in forecasting non-linear data.
Keyword: ARIMA, forecasting, fuzzy time series, saxena-easo model

Judul: Biology Of Columbia Lance Nematode (Hoplolaimus Columbus Sher) On Soybean Excised Root Culture
Abstrak: S. Supramana, S. A. Lewis,.J. D. Mueller, B. A. Fortnum, and R. E. Ballard. 2001. Biology of Columbia lance nematod. ~ (Hoplolaimus columbus Sher) on soybean excised root culture. Nematropica 31 :283-2~)O. Feeding, egg development and oviposition, embryology, and postembtyonic development or Hoplolaimus col'lmbuswere observed on soybean (cultivar Hutcheson) excised root culture in Gam borg's B5 medium (pH 5.7,1.3% agar). Petri plate sterile cultures were placed inverted on a heated microscope stage (30°C) and observations were conducted using a color video camera and a time lapse digital videoca:;sette recorder. Oocytes were obsetved in each gonad 38 hours after feeding commenced and all egg possessing a terminal stalk was laid 96 hours later. Eggs were deposited it, the one-celled stag~ and a total of 217 hours (9 days) was required for a"newly laid egg to develop into a hatching second-stage juvenile at 30°C. Postembryonic development consisted of threejuvenile stages and an adult female with prior feeding occurring before molts and oviposition. The nematode fed ectoparasiticallyon the subepidermal cells and endoparasitically in the cortex and outer vascular tissue and remained at the infection site for 2·9 days. Key words: Columbia lance nematode, embryology, excised root culture, feeding behavior, HOfilo{aimus columbus, life cycle, oviposition, postembryonic development, soybean.
Keyword: