Judul: Analysis of Indonesian Natural Rubber Export Performance to Destination Country
Abstrak: Indonesia merupakan salah satu negara eksportir terbesar karet di dunia, namun demikian nilai ekspor cenderung berfluktuatif. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis kinerja nilai karet alam Indonesia ke negara tujuan utama dengan kode HS 4001 pada periode 2012-2021. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini dalam menganalisis daya saing adalah Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Export Dynamic (EPD), dan X model. Penelitian ini juga menggunakan gravity model dalam mengestimasi determinan permintaan ekspor karet alam Indonesia ke negara tujuan utama. Berdasarkan hasil RCA menunjukkan karet alam Indonesia berdaya saing tinggi. Analisis EPD menunjukkan pangsa pasar lost opportunity di USA, Kanada, dan China, falling star di Jepang, India, dan Korea Selatan, dan retreat di Brazil dan Turki. Analisis X-Model menunjukkan pengembangan pangsa pasar potensial hampir di seluruh negara kecuali Brazil dan Turki. Hasil analisis gravity model menunjukkan, GDP negara tujuan utama dan harga komoditas berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap nilai ekspor karet alam Indonesia. Nilai GDP riil Indonesia dan jarak ekonomi memiliki pengaruh negatif terhadap nilai ekspor karet alam Indonesia. Sementara nilai tukar tidak berpengaruh signifikan., Indonesia is one of the largest rubber exporters in the world, however, the export value tends to fluctuate. The purpose of this study was to analyze the value performance of Indonesian natural rubber to the main destination countries with the HS code 4001 in the 2012-2021 period. The method used in this study in analyzing competitiveness is Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Export Dynamic (EPD), then X model. This research also uses gravity model in estimating the determinants of demand for Indonesia's natural rubber exports to the main destination countries. Based on RCA results, Indonesia's natural rubber is highly competitive. EPD analysis shows market share lost opportunity in the USA, Canada, and China, falling star in Japan, India, and South Korea, and retreat in Brazil and Turkey. X-Model analysis shows the potential market share development in almost all countries except Brazil and Turkey. Analysis results gravity model shows, the GDP of the main destination countries and commodity prices have a positive and significant effect on the export value of Indonesia's natural rubber. Indonesia's real GDP value and economic distance have a negative effect on the value of Indonesia's natural rubber exports. While the exchange rate has no significant effect.
Keyword: EPD, Gravity Model, Natural rubber, RCA, X-Model

Judul: Competitiveness dan Factors Influencing Indonesian Ribbed Smoked Sheet (RSS) Natural Rubber Export.
Abstrak: Ekspor Indonesia didominasi oleh sektor non-migas pada tahun 2020 dan Indonesia berada di posisi tiga besar negara pengekspor karet alam RSS pada tahun 2020. Namun jika dibandingkan dengan ekspor karet alam Technically Specified Natural Rubber, ekspor karet alam RSS Indonesia masih lebih sedikit meskipun harga per kilogram karet alam RSS lebih mahal daripada karet alam TSNR. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis daya saing dan faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi ekspor karet alam RSS Indonesia ke negara tujuan utama ekspor. Metode yang akan digunakan adalah Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Export Product Dynamic (EPD), Porter’s Diamond, X-model, dan regresi data panel. Vietnam dan Thailand merupakan negara pesaing Indonesia pada analisis daya saing. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa karet RSS Indonesia memiliki keunggulan komparatif pada lima pasar tujuan utama. Ekspor komoditas ini berkembang paling baik bagi Indonesia di China dan India. Karet RSS Indonesia memiliki aspek keunggulan di faktor permintaan dan faktor industri penunjang dan terkait. Regresi data panel memperlihatkan bahwa faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi ekspor komoditas ini adalah GDP negara tujuan, volume ekspor tahun sebelumnya, nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap Dolar AS, dan nilai tukar riil efektif negara tujuan. Sementara itu, tahun pembatasan ekspor karet alam oleh International Tripartite Rubber Council tidak berpengaruh signifikan., Indonesia’s export was dominated by non-oil & gas sector in 2020 and Indonesia placed on the top three nation of RSS Rubber exporter in 2020. Compared with Technically Specified Natural Rubber exports, Indonesian RSS Natural Rubber exports is still far behind despite RSS Rubber price per kilogram is higher than that of TSNR. This paper aims to analyze competitiveness of Indonesian RSS Natural Rubber in main countries of destination and to analyze factors influencing its export volume to said countries. Methods used in this paper are Revealed Comparative Advantage, Export Product Dynamic, Porter’s Diamond, X-model, and Panel Data Regression. Result shows that Indonesia’s RSS natural rubber has competitive advantage in all five main export destination. This Indonesian export commodity has the highest market growth in China and India. Indonesian RSS Rubber has its strength in demand factor and supporting and related industries. Lastly, according to panel data regression, factors influencing export of this commodity are GDP of importer country, previous year export volume towards the importer country, importer country’s real effective exchange rate, and US Dollar to Rupiah exchange rate. Meanwhile, natural rubber export restriction by International Tripartite Rubber Council doesn’t have significant effect.
Keyword: comparative advantage, competitive advantage, international trade

Judul: Approximation of the Median of Poisson Distribution Using the Relation of Poisson-Gamma Distribution
Abstrak: A major drawback of median is that median cannot usually be defined in closed form, even in the cases where their distribution functions are known. This study gives an approximation of the closed form for the median of the Poisson distribution by using the relation of Poisson-Gamma distribution. The approximation uses elementary techniques based on the monotonicity of certain sequences involving tail probabilities of the Poisson distribution and the Central Limit Theorem. Furthermore, a closed form expression for the mean absolute deviation 􀜧|􀜰􀰒 􀵆 􀜯􀝁􀝀􁈺􀜰􀰒􁈻| is also studied. The median is relevant because of the fact that it minimizes the mean absolute deviation of a Poisson random variable (􀜰􀰒􁈻 by considering median as central tendency.
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