Judul: Forecasting spare parts demand: a case study at an indonesian heavy equipment company
Abstrak: Forecasting spare parts demand is a common issue dealt by inventory managers at maintenance service organization. The large number of items held in stocks and the random demand occurrences make most of the difficulties. An indonesian heavy equipment company targets to advance its forecast accuracy. Accordingly, this study has two main goals. Firstly, all stock keeping units (skus) are classified based on their demand patterns, utilizing their average inter-demand interval (adi) and squared coefficient of variation (cv2) of demand sizes as the classifiers. After that, four simple forecasting methods are applied to each demand class and the best forecasting method in term of its forecast errors is chosen. Evaluation of forecast accuracy is made by means of the mean absolute scaled error (mase), mad-to-mean ratio, and percentage best (pbt). The forecasting competition results show the dominance of syntetos-boylan approximation for erratic, smooth, and intermittent demand, and simple moving average for lumpy demand
Keyword: demand categorization, demand forecasting, forecast accuracy

Judul: Forecasting and Probabilistic Inventory Model on Fashion Products at Distro Club Bogor
Abstrak: Distro muncul sebagai salah satu bentuk inovasi dalam persaingan industri fesyen di Indonesia yang dinamis. Penelitian ini dilakukan dari bulan Februari-Mei 2024 di Distro Club Kota Bogor. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengklasifikasikan prioritas kategori barang, menganalisis sistem peramalan permintaan paling efektif, dan menentukan tingkat safety stock dan reorder point. Analisis ABC mengidentifikasi kategori prioritas yaitu t-shirt, hoodie, sepatu, jaket, long sleeve, dan long shirt yang berkontribusi terbesar terhadap nilai penjualan. Metode Winter's Exponential Smoothing dipilih sebagai metode peramalan terbaik dengan bobot optimal 0,9. Penerapan model probabilistik dibagi menjadi 2 periode. Untuk bulan April, safety stock (SS) dapat mengantisipasi lonjakan permintaan Idul Fitri dengan SS t-shirt 249 unit, hoodie 85 unit, sepatu 7 unit, jaket 24 unit, long sleeve 29 unit, long shirt 19 unit. Untuk selain bulan April, SS t-shirt 242 unit, hoodie 69 unit, sepatu 41 unit, jaket 20 unit, long sleeve 36 unit, long shirt 25 unit. ROP t-shirt 273 unit, hoodie 80 unit, sepatu 45 unit, jaket 23 unit, long sleeve 41 unit, long shirt 27 unit., Distro emerged as a form of innovation in the dynamic competition of the fashion industry in Indonesia. This research was conducted from February to May 2024 at Distro Club Bogor City. This research aims to classify the priority categories of goods, analyze the most effective demand forecasting system, and determine the level of safety stock and reorder point. ABC analysis identifies priority categories, namely t-shirts, hoodies, shoes, jackets, long sleeves, and long shirts that contribute the most to sales value. Winter's Exponential Smoothing method was selected as the best forecasting method with an optimal weight of 0.9. The application of the probabilistic model is divided into 2 periods. For the month of April, safety stock (SS) can anticipate the surge in demand for Idul Fitri with SS t-shirts 249 units, hoodies 85 units, shoes 7 units, jackets 24 units, long sleeves 29 units, long shirts 19 units. For other than April, SS t-shirt 242 units, hoodie 69 units, shoes 41 units, jacket 20 units, long sleeve 36 units, long shirt 25 units. ROP t-shirt 273 units, hoodie 80 units, shoes 45 units, jacket 23 units, long sleeve 41 units, long shirt 27 units.
Keyword: Analisis ABC, manajemen persediaan, winter's exponential smoothing, model probabilistik

Judul: Trichomonas Gallinae Penyebab Trichomonosis Pada Unggas
Abstrak: Trichomonas gallinae adalah protozoa yang bergerak aktof dengan keempat flagella yang mempunyai layar dan pada salah satu sisinya terdapat membran seperti sirip ikan yang berombak. Spesies dari genus Trichomonas ini mempunyai arti penting pada unggas, karena dapat menyebabkan infeksi pada alat pencernaan bagian atas.
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