Judul: Habitat perkembangbiakan dan beberapa aspek perilaku Anopheles sundaicus di Kecamatan Padang Cermin Kabupaten Lampung Selatan:
Abstrak: Salah satu penyakit yang masih menjadi masalah kesehatan di Indonesia saat ini adalah malaria, dimana malaria sering menimbulkan kejadian luar biasa (KBL) yang karena banyaknya angka kematian dan kesakitan. walaupun lima tahun etrakhir angka kesakitan akibat malaria cenderung menurun tetapi diperkirakan masih etrdapat 49.6% penduduk Indonesia tinggal di daerah yang beresiko malaria.Lampung Selatan merupakan salah satu kabupaten di Indonesia yang memepunyai angka kesakitan yang cukup tinggi dengan tingkat endemisitas medium case incidence (MCI). Terdapat satu kecamatan yang berstatus high incidence area (HIA) yaitu kecamatan Padang cermin. Letak wilayah Kecamatan Padang Cermin yang ada di pinggir pantai menjadikan temapt ini sebagai tempat tambak oleh sebagian pemiliknya ada yang ditinggalkan sehingga menjadi tempat yang baik untuk berkembangbiakan nyamuk Anopheles.
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Judul: Bioecology of anopheles species in South Lampung and Pesawaran Districts : diversity, habitat characteristics, density, behaviour and spatial distribution
Abstrak: Kabupaten Lampung Selatan dan Pesawaran merupakan daerah endemis malaria dengan angka AMI tahun 2009 sebesar 2,84 000 dan 12,48 000. Pengendalian malaria dengan upaya memutuskan mata rantai penularan masih efektif untuk dilaksanakan. Oleh karena itu pemahaman bioekologi spesies Anopheles penting dipelajari sebagai dasar pengendalian vektor malaria. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengamati bioekologi spesies Anopheles di Kabupaten Lampung Selatan dan Pesawaran, meliputi keragaman, karakteristik habitat perkembangbiakan, kepadatan, perilaku dan distribusi spasial. Penelitian dilaksanakan di Kabupaten Lampung Selatan dan Pesawaran, tepatnya di Kecamatan Rajabasa dan Padangcermin. Penelitian dilaksanakan selama satu tahun, mulai Agustus 2008 sampai dengan September 2009. Larva dikoleksi menggunakan cidukan plastik standar WHO pada semua jenis perairan. Karakteristik habitat larva Anopheles yang diamati meliputi jenis habitat, luasan, ketinggian, kedalaman, dasar habitat, salinitas air, suhu air, pH air, arus air, jenis-jenis gulma air, tinggi gulma air dan kerapatan gulma air. Nyamuk dikoleksi pada malam dan pagi hari. Koleksi nyamuk malam hari dilakukan dengan metode HLC pada jam 18.00-06.00, sedangkan pagi hari dilakukan koleksi nyamuk yang istirahat pada jam 06.00-09.00. Nyamuk Anopheles yang unfed dilakukan pembedahan abdomen untuk melihat status paritas. Kepala dan toraks nyamuk dilakukan pemeriksaan circumsporozoite protein dengan metode ELISA untuk menentukan status vektor. Titik koordinat larva dan nyamuk Anopheles dicatat berdasarkan alat GPS. Data sekunder yang dikumpulkan adalah data cuaca dan kasus malaria., Malaria is one of a public health problem in Indonesia, causing morbidity and mortality as well as outbreak in remote areas. South Lampung and Pesawaran were medium malaria areas, with annual parasite incidence in 2009 were 2,84000 and 12,48 000 consequently. Vector control remains the most effective measure to prevent malaria transmission. The understanding of bioecology vector species is very important to formulate vector control strategies. The study of Anopheles mosquito in South Lampung and Pesawaran Districts were carried out on August 2008 to September 2009. Larval species were sampled in all water bodies by dipper according to WHO standard. Anopheline species were collected by human landing and resting collections to study population dynamics and biting activities. Diversity of larva was analyzed by Shannon-Wiener index and T test. The correlation of weather with anopheline density, and anopheline density with malaria cases were analysed by Correlation Pearson test. Mapping of mosquito used GPS and analyzed by Arc view program. There was heterogeneity of diversity larva among land use. Twelve species were found, there were 11 species at Rajabasa and 10 species at Padangcermin, e.g. A. sundaicus, A. barbirostris, A. annularis, A. minimus, A. kochi, A. aconitus, A. tessellatus, A. vagus, A. subpictus, A. indefinitus, A. maculatus and A. hyrcanus group. The A. sundaicus was the predominant species in both study areas. Thirteen habitats were found, there were 10 at Rajabasa and 11 at Padangcermin, e.g. unproductive fish pounds, unproductive hatchery, lagoon, swamp, ditches, river, paddy field, irrigation channel, ground pool, mud-hole, puddle and water container. The predominant habitats of A. sundaicus were unproductive hatcheries at Rajabasa and unproductive fish pounds at Padangcermin. The population density of A. sundaicus was fluctuated every month, and the peak occurred on November at Rajabasa and on Desember at Padangcermin. The biting activities of
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Judul: Which one use to overcome multicollinearity ? Ridge regression or principal component regression
Abstrak: In multiple linear regression the effect of nonorthogonality of the prediction vectors is to pull the least squares estimates of the regression coefficient away from the true coefficient that one is trying to estimate. Separating the effects of each factor of the regressors has been found to be difficult because of high correlation among independent variables. Although the multicollinearity problem has been recognized by many ways, ordinary least squares is still the main technique used in many fields, but the estimation of regression coefficient can present problems when the data vectors for the predictors are not orthogonal, or in this case are multicollinear. In using ordinary least squares, the regression coefficient may be unstable, too large in absolute value, and incorrect with respect to sign. Introduced biased estimation refer to unbiased one that measure the average closeness to the parameter being estimated corresponding to its mean square error (MSE). Ridge regression and principal component can produce better estimates by its own way than those given by ordinary least squares. It may well be preferred estimator since it will have larger probability of being close to true parameter value. Two of the biased regression methods, ridge regression and principal component regression will be applied into this research and discuss briefly for each of its properties. These methods have its particular idiosyncrasy. The biased regression methods attack the collinearity problem by computationally suppressing the effects of the collinearity. Ridge regression does this correctly by modifying the correlation matrix adding a biased constant driving through nonsingular matrix. Principal component regression attacks the problem by regressing Y on the important principal component and then parceling out the effect of the principal component variables to the original variables. Finally translated back the obtained variables into original variables yield the same sign and nearly the same coefficients for both methods.
Keyword: Regresssion analysis