Judul: Arima Model For Monthly Temperature And Rainfall In Bogor
Abstrak: average condititon among items from many components of climate system. There arc many factors determine the differences of the climate among one place to another place in the world. The climate•s components very often used to define the climate in some place arc the temperature and the minfal!. The damages caused by climate (such as: drought, flood, global wanning) actually can be avoided if we have known climate prediction. such as periodicity. rainfall prediction and temperature prediction. Bogor that is known as "'rain city" is very interesting to investigate like what the pattern of it '5 rainfall and temperature. The temperature in Bogor have periodicity of 12 monthly and the rainfall have periodicity of 36 monUlly (3 yearly). The model for the montilly temperature in Bogar is as [ollOlr: X, = 0,8254X,.! + X,." - 0.8254X'.13 +c, - 0.4186c'.1 - 0.9475c,." + 0.3966c'.13. The model for the lllontIlly rainfall in Bogar is as follow: X, = 0.8455X'~6+0.1525X'.72"'" +0.1318£'.1 -0.8567£,.",+0.1129£'-37. From these both satisfactory models we established. we can explore and analyse lImy strong the PHst temperature correlates to the present temperature. And from these model we can also do forecasting. Key words: Stationarity. Ergodicity. Autocorrelation Function. ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) ModeL Q Box-Pierce Test. Forecasting.
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Judul: Perbandingan Model Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) dan Seasonal ARIMAX (SARIMAX) untuk Memprediksi Curah Hujan Kabupaten Bogor
Abstrak: Perubahan iklim yang dapat menyebabkan terjadinya perubahan siklus hidrologi berupa peningkatan suhu dan kelembaban udara yang secara langsung berdampak pada curah hujan dan memicu terjadinya bencana hidrometeorologi, seperti banjir yang terjadi di Indonesia, salah satunya pada Kabupaten Bogor. Dampak negatif tersebut memerlukan mitigasi dengan melakukan analisis prediksi curah hujan, antara lain menggunakan model Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) dan SARIMA with exogenous factors (SARIMAX). Adapun tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah membandingkan kinerja model SARIMA dan SARIMAX yang terbentuk serta melakukan prediksi selama 10 bulan ke depan dengan menggunakan model terbaik yang dipilih. Data yang digunakan sebagai peubah endogen adalah intensitas curah hujan bulanan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model SARIMAX(0,1,1)(1,1,1)12 dengan faktor eksogen berupa rataan bulanan dalam kelembaban udara, lama penyinaran matahari, dan suhu udara menunjukkan model terbaik pada penelitian ini. Model tersebut dibentuk dengan menggunakan 70% data latih dan 30% data uji yang menghasilkan MAPE sebesar 17.98% dengan korelasi model aktual dan prediksi sebesar 0.872., Climate change can cause changes in the hydrological cycle with an increase of temperature and humidity which directly affects rainfall and triggers hydrometeorological disasters, such as floods that occur in Indonesia, which one is Bogor Regency. Due to these negative impacts, it is necessary to mitigate by analyzing rainfall predictions, for example using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and SARIMA with exogenous factors (SARIMAX) models. The purpose of this research is to compare the model performance of the SARIMA and SARIMAX models and to make predictions for the next 10 months using the best model. The data used as endogenous variable is monthly rainfall intensity. The results showed that the SARIMAX(0,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model with exogenous factors such as monthly averages in air humidity, long exposure sunlight, and air temperature showed the best model in this research. The model was formed using 70% training data and 30% test data which resulted in a MAPE of 17.98% with a correlation of actual and predicted models of 0.872.
Keyword: predictions, rainfall, SARIMA, SARIMAX

Judul: Pemanfaatan Khitosan dari Limbah Kulit Udang sebagai Bahan Kosmetik
Abstrak: Khitosan merupakan biopolimer polisakarida yang diekstrak dari kulit dan kepala udang. Kulit dan kepala udang merupakan limbah industri pengolahan udang, yang selama ini baru dimanfaatkan sebagai pakan ternak, bahan pembuat trasi dan krupuk udang. Pemanfaatan kulit udang menjadi khitosan merupakan alternatif yang baik mengingat banyak kegunaannya dalam industri.
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