Judul: Impact of Asean Australia and New Zealand free trade agreement on beef  industry  in Indonesia
Abstrak: Persistent increase in income and population and change in food consumption in Indonesia has led to considerable increase in food demand such as vegetables, fruits, sugar, beef, dairy products, poultry and seafood. As the result, there has been increasing imports of some of these products to meet their domestic demand. In particular, roughly 30 percent of national beef demand is met by imports of beef and beef cattle largely from Australia and New Zealand. For the past years Government of Indonesia has implemented several policies to protect domestic beef farmers so that domestic beef production can increase and reduce dependence on imports. One of such policies is imposition of beef import tariff. Nonetheless, with several free trade agreements that Indonesia has been participating in, such as ASEAN, Australia and New Zealand Free Trade Agreement (AANZFTA), those efforts will cease. Every year more than 90 percent of Indonesian beef imports come from Australia and New Zealand. Involvement of Indonesia in AANZFTA may have negative effects on beef industry when beef import tariffs are phased out in 2020. Hence, the objectives of this study are (1) to evaluate the impact of tariff removal on production, consumption, domestic price and import of beef, (2) to evaluate impact of free trade agreement on beef producer and consumer surpluses and (3) to propose alternative policies that can be implemented to increase domestic beef production. In this study, yearly time series data from 1990 to 2008 was used and analysed with econometric model. The model consists of eight structural equations and four identity equations. Parameters were estimated with Two Stage Least Squares method. Several policy alternatives were simulated which include single policies and their combinations: (1) removal of beef import tariffs for beef imports from Australia and New Zealand, (2) reducing interest rate, (3) increasing number of imported breeding cattle, (4) increase artificial insemination technology, (5) combination of reducing interest rate, increasing imported breeding cattle and increasing artificial insemination technology, (6) increasing import tariffs for beef imports from Australia and New Zealand, (7) combination of reducing interest rate, increasing imported breeding cattle, increasing artificial insemination technology and increasing import tariff, (8) combination of reducing interest rate, increasing imported breeding cattle, increasing artificial insemination technology and removal of beef import tariffs for imports from Australia and New Zealand, (9) reduction of beef imports from Australia, New Zealand, rest of the world and imported feeder cattle by 90 percent each, (10) combination of reduction of beef imports from Australia, New Zealand, rest of the world and imported feeder cattle by 90 percent each, reducing interest rate, increasing number of imported breeding cattle and increasing artificial insemination technology, and (11) combination of interest rate reduction, increasing import beef tariffs for imports from Australia and New Zealand, artificial insemination technology and number of imported breeding cattle. Simulation results revealed that removal of beef import tariff will increase beef import, increase domestic beef supply, leading to reduction in domestic beef price hence, increased beef demand. However, domestic beef production does not decrease drastically. The free trade agreement will increase consumers’ surplus and reduce
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Judul: Analysis of The Impact of AANZFTA Implementation on Trade Creation and Trade Diversion of Indonesia's Beef Imports
Abstrak: ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Area (AANZFTA) merupakan integrasi ekonomi di antara negara-negara ASEAN, Australia, dan New Zealand. Salah satu bentuk implementasi AANZFTA terwujud dalam penurunan hambatan tarif impor pada komoditas daging sapi. Penurunan tarif tersebut dapat memengaruhi Indonesia sebagai negara net importir daging sapi. Daging sapi impor yang berasal dari negara-negara anggota AANZFTA memiliki keunggulan kompetitif melalui penurunan tarif impor dibandingkan dengan daging sapi impor yang berasal dari negara-negara non anggota AANZFTA. Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini bertujuan: (1) Menganalisis faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi impor daging sapi di Indonesia selama tahun 2005-2020; dan (2) Menganalisis pengaruh implementasi AANZFTA terhadap kreasi perdagangan dan diversi perdagangan impor daging sapi di Indonesia. Metode analisis yang digunakan yaitu analisis regresi data panel dengan model gravitasi. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa: (1) Impor daging sapi di Indonesia dipengaruhi oleh produksi daging sapi Indonesia, nilai tukar riil rupiah terhadap mata uang negara sumber impor, PDB riil per kapita Indonesia, PDB riil per kapita negara sumber impor, dummy kreasi perdagangan, dan dummy diversi perdagangan; (2) Implementasi AANZFTA menyebabkan impor daging sapi Indonesia dari negara-negara anggota AANZFTA menurun sebesar 2,97 persen dan impor daging sapi Indonesia dari negara-negara non anggota AANZFTA meningkat sebesar 2,39 persen dibandingkan dengan sebelum AANZFTA diimplementasikan., ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Area (AANZFTA) is an economic integration between ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand. One of the commitments made in the framework of the AANZFTA is the reduction of beef import tariff barriers. The reduction in beef import tariffs could affect Indonesia as a net importer of beef. Beef imports from AANZFTA member countries have a competitive advantage because of the reduction in import tariffs compared to beef imported from non-AANZFTA member countries. Therefore, the purpose of this research is: (1) Analyse the factors that influence beef imports in Indonesia from 2005 to 2020; (2) Analyse the impact of AANZFTA implementation on creating and diverting in Indonesian beef imports. The analysis method used in this research is the panel regression analysis and gravity model. The result of this research is: (1) Beef imports in Indonesia during 2005-2020 are influenced by Indonesia’s beef production, real exchange rate, real GDP per capita of Indonesia, real GDP per capita of exporting countries, trade creation dummy, and trade diversion dummy; (2) The implementation of AANZFTA has reduced Indonesia’s beef imports from AANZFTA member countries by 2,97 per cent and increase beef imports from non AANZFTA member countries by 2,39 per cent than without AANZFTA implementation.
Keyword: data panel, kawasan perdagangan bebas, konsumsi daging sapi, model gravitasi, penurunan tarif impor

Judul: Cycle Hamilton pada Graf Lengkap, Graf Regular, dan Graf 2-Connected 4-Regular Berorder Kurang dari Sepuluh.
Abstrak: Suatu graf disebut graf Hamilton apabila graf tersebut memuat cycle Hamilton, yaitu cycle yang melewati setiap vertex tepat satu kali. Menentukan keberadaan cycle Hamilton pada suatu graf dapat menggunakan syarat cukup yang berupa teorema-teorema yang telah diperkenalkan sejak tahun 1950-an. Beberapa syarat cukup yang dibahas dalam karya ilmiah ini adalah syarat cukup yang berhubungan dengan graf lengkap dan graf regular. ,,,
Keyword: graf Hamilton, graf regular, graf lengkap, graf 2-connected 4-regular.