Judul: Penerapan Metode Sampling dengan Penambahan Peubah Partai Politik dalam Menurunkan Error Quick Count (Sudi Kasus: Pemilihan Presiden 2014)
Abstrak: Metode quick count mulai dikenal seiring dengan dilaksanakannya pemilihan umum (Pemilu) di Indonesia. Quick count bertujuan mengawal jalannya perhitungan suara dalam Pemilu agar terhindar dari kecurangan. Pada pemilihan presiden tahun 2014, berbagai lembaga survei ikut menyelenggarakan quick count. Lembaga-lembaga tersebut mengharapkan hasil dugaan yang akurat, yaitu hasil quick count yang sesuai dan memiliki selisih terdekat dengan rekapitulasi Komisi Pemilihan Umum. SaifulMujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) merupakan salah satu lembaga penyelenggara quick count dengan akurasi yang baik pada pemilihan presiden 2014. Selisih dugaan suara Jokowi-Jusuf Kalla berdasarkan hasil quick count SMRC dengan perhitungan KPU ialah 0.17%. Penelitian ini dilaksanakan untuk meningkatkan nilai akurasi pada pelaksanaan quick count. Akurasi quick count tentunya dipengaruhi oleh metode penarikan contoh yang digunakan. SMRC menggunakan penarikan contoh berlapis dengan wilayah provinsi sebagai strata. Penambahan peubah yang tepat sebagai dasar stratifikasi dapat meningkatkan akurasi quick count. Suara partai politik pendukung pasangan calon presiden dan wakil presiden, memiliki peran dalam menyumbang suara kemenangan pada pemilihan presiden. Studi Voting behavior menyebutkan adanya pengaruh besar partai politik terhadap kecenderungan masyarakat dalam menentukan pilihan. Simulasi yang dilakukan dalam penelitian ini menggunakan penambahan peubah partai politik untuk menemukan akurasi yang lebih baik dalam quick count.
Keyword: Identifikasi partai, margin of error, Pemilihan Umum, resampling, quick count

Judul: Pendugaan Perolehan Suara Level Kabupaten/Kota pada Pemilihan Gubernur Jawa Barat Tahun 2013
Abstrak: Quick count is a method for verification of election results by estimating them from samples of the polling stations. Based on quick count simulation, direct estimation of election result at the level of subpopulations, for example at the county or city level on governor election, has greater risk of error in a relatively small sample size. One of the alternative methods for solving this problem is indirect estimation approach using small area estimation (SAE). This research applied direct estimation and SAE method to estimate proportion of election results in 2013 West Java governor election. Generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) approach of SAE is choosen since the data which were used to calculate the proportion is count data. The results show, the SAE generally better than direct estimation for relatively small sample size by MSE criterion.
Keyword: quick count and small area estimation, MSE, GLMM

Judul: Biology and ecology of the buffalo fly, haematobia exigua de meijere (diptera:muscidae)
Abstrak: The life history of the buffalo fly was observed at room temperature of 27°-29.5°C and at a relative humidity of 48-68 percent. The eggs hatched after 17-22 hours, with an average of 18 hours. First instar larvae measured 1.25 + 0.16 mm long and 0.27 + 0.037 mm wide. reach the second larval stage. It took 6-12 hours to the second instar larvae measured 2.676 +0.187 mm long and 0.353 +0.028 mm wide. The second instar took about 12-24 hours to reach the third larval stage. The third instar measured 6.833 + 0.189 mm long and 0.919 + 0.051 mm wide. It took about 2-3 days for the third instar to become pupae. Duration of the pupal stage was about 5-7 days before the adults emerged. Under laboratory condition, the buffalo fly completed its life cycle in 9.5 to 10.5 days, whereas under field condition it took 9-14 days with an average of 10.5 days. The growth ratio which was based on the measurements of the cephalo-pharyngeal skeleton of each instar was 1.797. The preoviposition period was 8-12 days and mating usually occurred on the 6th or 7th day. The longevity of the male was 29 days, whereas it was 32 days in the female. The range of egg production under laboratory condition was between 20-139 per female fly. The belly and hind legs of the carabao were the most preferred habitat either during cloudy and cool dry or shiny and warm day. When the weather was clear and the carabao was in the shade, the flies tended to be more distributed particularly on the shoulder, dewlap, back and horns. The carabaos had relatively fewer Musca sp. and Stomoxys calcitrans than cattle; never the less carabaos had a higher infestation of buffalo fly than cattle. Oviposition occured either during the day or night but the buffalo flies were more active during the night than in the day time. The effect of various lengths of exposure time of manure in relation to the oviposition was profound. observed, the maximum number of the buffalo flies was occurred when the dung was exposed for 30 minutes. With increasing time of exposure the number and variety of insects also increase. It was evident that Sepsidae and psychodidae were the most dominant insects emerging from the dung. The number of buffalo flies also increased with increasing
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