Judul: Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Memengaruhi Impor Cengkih Indonesia
Abstrak: Salah satu komoditas perkebunan yang berpotensi menjadi sumber devisa Indonesia adalah cengkih (Syzigium aromaticum L. Marr. and Perr.). Produksi cengkih nasional sering mengalami fluktuasi, sehingga dikenal panen raya, panen sedang, dan panen kecil. Industri rokok kretek merupakan konsumen utama cengkih karena menyerap 95% produksi cengkih nasional yang digunakan sebagai bahan baku utama dalam berproduksi. Indonesia merupakan negara pengekspor dan pengimpor cengkih. Cengkih dalam penelitian ini menggunakan cengkih dengan kode (HS) 0907(Whole fruit, cloves, and stems). Indonesia melakukan impor cengkih untuk memenuhi permintaan domestik. Kebijakan pemerintah yang tepat terkait impor cengkih sangat penting agar persediaan cengkih baik di pasar domestik maupun pasar dunia terpenuhi. Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk (1) menganalisis perkembangan produksi, konsumsi, harga, dan impor cengkih Indonesia, (2) menganalisis perkembangan kebijakan impor cengkih Indonesia dan implikasinya terhadap volume dan nilai impor cengkih, dan (3) menganalisis faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi volume impor cengkih Indonesia. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa bahwa variabel-variabel yang berpengaruh signifikan terhadap volume impor cengkih Indonesia periode 1977-2019 adalah variabel harga cengkih impor, harga cengkih domestik, produksi cengkih domestik, dan variabel inflasi Indonesia. Perubahan kebijakan impor cengkih Indonesia juga sudah mengalami perubahan dari kebijakan pembatasan impor menjadi kebijakan yang mendukung impor cengkih Indonesia., One of the plantation commodities that has the potential to become a source of foreign exchange for Indonesia is cloves (Syzigium aromaticum L. Marr. and Perr.). National cloves production fluctuates, so that in cloves production it is known as the big harvest, medium harvest and small harvest. The clove cigarette industry is the main consumer of cloves because it absorbs 95% of the national clove production which is used as the main raw material in producing. This causes the volume of cloves to exported reduced. Apart from being a clove exporting country, Indonesia also imports cloves. Cloves used in this study are cloves with the (HS) code 0907 (Whole fruit, cloves, and stems). Indonesia imports cloves to meet domestic demand, especially from the kretek cigarette industry. Appropriate government policies related to cloves import are very important so that the supply of cloves in both the domestic and world markets is met. Therefore, this study aims to (1) analyze the development of Indonesian clove production, consumption, price, and imports, (2) analyze the development of Indonesia's clove commodity trade policy and its implications for the volume and value of clove imports, and (3) analyze the factors that affect the volume of clove imports in Indonesia. The results showed that the variables that have a significant effect on the volume of Indonesian clove imports for the period 1977-2019 are the imported clove price, the domestic clove price, the domestic clove production, and the Indonesian inflation variable. Changes in Indonesia's clove import policy have also undergone a change from the import restriction policy become a policy that supports the import of Indonesian cloves.
Keyword: Cloves import, Cloves import policy, Cochrane-Orcutt method, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)

Judul: Competitiveness Analysis and Factors Affecting Indonesia Clove  Exports
Abstrak: Indonesia merupakan salah satu negara penghasil cengkeh terbesar di dunia dan merupakan salah satu Negara pengekspor cengkeh terbesar di dunia yang ditunjukan dengan volume ekspor. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis posisi daya saing dan kinerja ekspor cengkeh (HS 0907) Indonesia, serta mengidentifikasi faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi tingkat ekspor cengkeh. Analisis data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data panel ekspor cengkeh pada sepuluh negara tujuan ekspor yaitu Mesir, India, Malaysia, Belanda, Pakistan, Arab Saudi, Singapura, Uni Emirat Arab, Amerika Serikat, dan Vietnam pada tahun 2005-2019. Data dianalisis menggunakan RCA (Revealed Comparative Advantages), EPD (Export Product Dynamics), dan analisis Gravity. Analisis RCA dan EPD masing-masing digunakan untuk mengetahui keunggulan komparatif dan kinerja analisis ekspor cengkeh Indonesia. Hasil analisis rata-rata nilai RCA menunjukkan bahwa komoditas cengkeh memiliki keunggulan komparatif dan berdaya saing kuat di setiap pasar yang diteliti. Posisi daya saing dengan nilai rata-rata RCA tertinggi berada di pasar Saudi Arabia, berikutnya secara berurutan pasar negara Vietnam, Amerika, Mesir, Uni Emirat Arab, Belanda, Pakistan, Malaysia kemudian India dan yang terakhir pasar negara Singapura berada di urutan kesepuluh. Hasil Analisis EPD menunjukkan bahwa posisi pasar komoditas cengkeh di masing-masing pasar memiliki variasi yang berbeda-beda yakni berada pada posisi rising star, retreat, dan falling star. Ekspor komoditas cengkeh Indonesia rata-rata tahun 2005-2019 berada pada posisi rising star di pasar Mesir, India, Malaysia, Belanda, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia,UEA, USA, dan Vietnam. Sedangkan di pasar Singapura ekspor cengkeh Indonesia berada pada posisi falling star, yaitu posisi dimana cengkeh Indonesia kehilangan kesempatan untuk meningkatkan pangsa pasar produknya. Adapun faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi ekspor komoditas cengkeh Indonesia adalah produk domestik bruto per kapita negara tujuan, jumlah penduduk dan nilai tukar riil efektif negara tujuan ekspor, serta jarak ekonomi ibukota negara Indonesia dengan negara tujuan., Indonesia is one of the largest clove-producing countries intended for export. This study was aimed to analyze the competitiveness position and performance of Indonesian clove export, and to identify the factors that affect the clover export level. The analyzed data used in this study was clove export panel data on ten export destination countries, namely Egypt, India, Malaysia, Netherlands, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, United Arab Emirates, United States of America, and Vietnam in 2005-2019. Data were analyzed following the RCA (Revealed Comparative Advantages), EPD (Export Product Dynamics), and Gravity analyses. The RCA and EPD analyses were used respectively for comparative advantages and performance of Indonesia’s clove export analyses. The analysis result of RCA value showed that cloves had a comparative advantage and strong competitiveness in each market. The most competitive country with the highest average RCA value was found in the Saudi Arabia market, followed by Vietnam, USA, Egypt, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Netherlands, Pakistan, Malaysia, India, and Singapore markets. The EPD analysis result showed that clove commodity market position in each market had different variations, namely in the rising-star, retreat, and falling-star positions. Averagely, Indonesian clove commodity exports in 2005-2019 were at a rising-star position in Egypt, India, Malaysia, Netherlands, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, UAE, USA, and Vietnam markets. Meanwhile, in Singapore market, Indonesian clove exports were at a falling-star position, as Indonesian clove lost the opportunity to increase the
Keyword: Clove, EPD, Export, Gravity model, RCA

Judul: Hamiltonian formulation for linear waves motion in two layers fluid
Abstrak: The surface wave could be considered as a wave that separates two fluids, namely water and air. Based on this assumption, it is introduced the interfacial wave, a wave between two layers of fluid with different density. The formulation of interfacial waves motion begins with deriving the base equation of irrotational ideal fluid. Furthermore, according to irrotational fluid assumption, the base equation can be stated in velocity potential. In this derivation, the fluids domain is assumed to be restricted by rigid lid boundary conditions, both at the upper and lower limit. Therefore, the interfacial waves motion can be explained in a hamiltonian formulation. In the hamiltonian formulation, total energy is defined as the sum of kinetic and potential energy. The hamiltonian system is obtained from reduction of kinetic energy by using the Dirichlet Neumann Operator. The resulted kinetic energy equation is nonlinear. Therefore, this form is linearized by first part of the Taylor expansion. This linearization gives a dispersion relation of linear wave. Based on this dispersion relation, the phase speed of the linear wave depends on the density ratio of the two layers fluid.
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