Judul: Peramalan Net Asset Value Asuransi Unit Link Menggunakan Fuzzy Time Series Model Chen dan Modifikasinya
Abstrak: Asuransi unit link adalah produk asuransi yang dapat memberikan manfaat perlindungan bagi pemegang polis dan manfaat investasi berupa reksa dana dengan portofolio instrumen investasi. Nilai aset bersih pada suatu instrumen investasi dapat berfluktuasi disebabkan kondisi pasar modal pada waktu tertentu yang mana berdampak pada potensi keuntungan dari pemegang polis. Dalam hal ini, peramalan dapat dilakukan untuk memprediksi nilai aset bersih di masa yang akan datang. Pada karya ilmiah ini, metode peramalan yang digunakan adalah fuzzy time series model Chen. Metode peramalan fuzzy time series model Chen juga dapat dimodifikasi dengan menggunakan rata-rata terbobot. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian, hasil peramalan dengan metode fuzzy time series model Chen yang dimodifikasi memiliki hasil yang lebih akurat dibandingkan dengan metode fuzzy time series model Chen tanpa modifikasi. Hal ini ditunjukkan dengan nilai Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) dari metode fuzzy time series model Chen yang dimodifikasi lebih kecil daripada nilai MAPE dari metode fuzzy time series model Chen tanpa modifikasi., Unit link insurance is an insurance product that can provide policyholders with both protection and investment benefits in the form of mutual funds with a portfolio of investment instruments. The net asset value of an investment instrument can fluctuate due to capital market conditions at a given time, which affects the policyholder's potential profit. In this case, forecasting can be used to predict the net assets value in the future. The forecasting method used in this scientific work is the Chen model fuzzy time series forecasting method. The Chen model fuzzy time series forecasting method can also be modified by using with a weighted average. Based on the research results, the forecasting results using the modified Chen model fuzzy time series method have more accurate results than the Chen model fuzzy time series method without modification. This is indicated by the value of the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of the modified Chen model fuzzy time series method, which is smaller than the MAPE of the Chen model fuzzy time series method without modification.
Keyword: Chen model, forecasting, fuzzy time series, net asset value, unit link

Judul: Determining Unit Link Term Life Insurance Net Single Premium Using the Compound Annual Ratchet Method
Abstrak: Asuransi unit link merupakan salah satu bentuk asuransi jiwa modern yang memberikan dua manfaat, yakni manfaat kematian dan manfaat investasi bagi tertanggung. Penghitungan premi dilakukan dengan mengasumsikan instrumen investasi yang digunakan berupa saham serta suku bunga konstan selama periode asuransi. Namun, pada keadaan sesungguhnya, instrumen investasi yang digunakan dapat berupa sebuah portofolio investasi yang terdiri atas berbagai instrumen investasi yang dimiliki oleh perusahaan asuransi serta suku bunga bervariasi. Tujuan karya ilmiah ini adalah menentukan besaran premi tunggal bersih dari asuransi jiwa berjangka unit link menggunakan metode pengindeksan saham compound annual ratchet pada empat skenario berbeda di mana tingkat cap dan tingkat floor divariasikan. Hasil penghitungan memberikan empat nilai premi tunggal bersih untuk masing-masing skenario. Secara keseluruhan, peningkatan tingkat floor dari 0% menjadi 3% memberikan nilai premi tunggal bersih yang lebih tinggi, sedangkan peningkatan tingkat cap dari 9% menjadi 12% memberikan nilai premi tunggal bersih yang lebih tinggi, tetapi kurang signifikan., The unit link insurance is one of the modern forms of life insurance that provides two benefits, namely death benefits and investment benefits for the insured. The calculation of the premiums is based on the assumption that the investment instruments used are equities and constant interest rates during the insurance period. However, in actual circumstances, the investment instrument used may be an investment portfolio consisting of different investments owned by the insurance company as well as varying interest rates. This scientific paper aims to determine the net single premium of life insurance unit link using the indexing method of compound annual ratchet stocks in four scenarios where the cap and floor values vary. The calculation results give net single premium values for each scenario. Overall, an increase in the floor level from 0% to 3% yields a higher net single premium value while an increase in the cap level rate from 9% to 12% gives a higher but less significant net single premium value.
Keyword: asuransi jiwa berjangka, Investasi, compound annual ratchet, premi tunggal bersih, unit link

Judul: Identifikasi Bakteri Saluran Pencernaan Lumba-lumba Hidung Botol Indo-Pasifik (Tursiops aduncus)
Abstrak: This research was aimed to identify the bacteria which lived in the digestive tract of the indo-pacific bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops aduncus). Anal swab samples were taken from 11 clinically healthy dolphins. These samples were cultured in the blood agar and MacConkey agar. The identification of the bacteria were based on series of tests i.e., colony and individual morphology, Gram stain characterisic, and standard biochemistry tests. At least, 14 genus of bacteria were identified such as Edwardsiella, Actinobacillus, Serratia, Enterobacter, Alcaligenes, Morganella, Proteus, Moraxella, Aeromonas, Pseudomonas, Streptococcus, Staphylococcus, Listeria, and Bacillus. Serratia and Alcaligenes were the most common genus which were found in the digestive tract of the dolphin
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