Judul: Pola Kejadian dan Faktor Risiko Penyakit Avian Influenza pada Peternakan Sektor 4 di Provinsi Lampung
Abstrak: The Study of pattern of occurance and risk factors of avian influenza (AI) outbreaks can be used in formulating AI prevention and control program. The aims of this research were to detect the hotspot area and analyze pattern of AI outbreaks in dimensions of time and space during 2010–2011, identify risk factors associated with AI outbreaks on backyard poultry farm in Lampung Province. The data of AI outbreaks were collected from Balai Penyidikan dan Pengujian Veteriner Regional 3 (BPPV Regional 3) and Local Disease Crisis Center (LDCC) Lampung Province and were analyzed using SatScan version 9.1.1 and visualized using ArcGIS version 9.3.1. In addition, identification of risk factor associated with AI outbreaks was done using the Case Control Study of Observational Epidemiology. The data were collected by structured interviews in three selected districts (Bandar Lampung, Metro and Pesawaran). Data analysis was carried out in three steps, consisting of univariate, bivariate with chi-square and multivariate analysis with logistic regression. All analysis was processed with SPSS 16.0. The result of analysis showed that subdistricts of Pekalongan, Metro Barat, Metro Timur and Metro Utara were most likely cluster or the hotspot area with relative risk (RR) values of 3.53. The risk factors which contributed to AI outbreaks in Lampung Province were raising poultry whereas free ranged or combined with caged at night with odds ratio (OR) values of 8.94 (confidence interval (CI):2.85-28.02), origins of poultry from live bird markets OR of 5.18 (CI:1.8-14.92) and fenced off <75 cm OR of 5.03 (CI:1.86-13.62). It is therefore recommended that subdistricts of Pekalongan, Metro Barat, Metro Timur and Metro Utara become to priority of surveillance. Formulating AI prevention and control program must be affecting risk factors that assosiated with AI outbreaks on backyard poultry farm in Lampung Province., Penyakit avian influenza (AI) merupakan penyakit unggas yang sangat menular dan telah menimbulkan kerugian ekonomi yang sangat besar bagi peternak. Provinsi Lampung merupakan satu diantara provinsi di Indonesia yang sampai dengan sekarang merupakan wilayah dengan kasus tinggi dan memiliki kasus suspek AI pada manusia sehingga dikategorikan sebagai wilayah dengan endemisitas dan risiko tinggi terhadap AI. Program pengendalian terhadap penyakit ini telah dilaksanakan dan menjadi program strategis nasional. Pengendalian tersebut memerlukan pendekatan yang terintegrasi berdasarkan data dan analisis epidemiologik seperti pola kejadian dan faktor risiko penyakit sehingga pengendalian AI sesuai dengan kondisi lokal Provinsi Lampung. Berdasarkan hal tersebut penelitian ini dilakukan dengan fokus pola kejadian dan faktor risiko terhadap kejadian AI pada peternakan sektor 4 di Provinsi Lampung.
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Judul: Analisis Spasial dan Temporal Kasus Avian Influenza Peternakan Unggas Sektor IV di Provinsi Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta
Abstrak: Avian influenza (AI) disease on poultry has occurred in Indonesia for 9 years (2003-2012) and potentially became a pandemic for human. DIY province was vulnerable in term of AI virus spreads, in fact it had ever became the highest AI cases on poultry in Indonesia. The objectives of this research are to located the center on AI cases, spatial correlation and AI cases pattern identification, identifying the relationship between poultry population and the number of AI cases, locate areas that become hotspot and figure out AI cases temporal pattern. Data used in this research is a secondary data from Participatory Disease Surveillance and Response (PDSR) and Dinas Peternakan dan Kesehatan Hewan Provinsi DIY for number of AI cases, GPS coordinate and poultry population of each sub-district in DIY province in 2009-2012. Mean spatial, moran scatterplot, Chi-Square test, and ARIMA are used for data analysis. Result from this research is expected to provide information regarding AI disease to the central government, regional government, and public society as an advice for deciding the prevention policy and AI cases treatment in DIY province. Areas that become the center of AI cases generally moved every year at the district or provincial level to the nearby area. Areas that become center of AI cases more than once are Bantul district. Gunung Kidul district only once became the center of AI cases. Area that became the center of AI cases needs to be aware as a source of AI disease infection. AI cases in DIY province generally in clustered pattern. Clustered pattern was occurred in 2010, 2011 and four year analysis. Random pattern found in 2009 and 2012. There was a positive or negative of spatial correlation of AI cases in DIY province. Areas that became hotspot more than once and potentially became center of AI disease spread are Pakem sub-district, Samigaluh sub-district, Kalasan sub-district, Umbulharjo sub-district, Pandak sub-district, Patuk sub-district, Sentolo sub-district, Tempel sub-district, Ngaglik sub-district, Lendah sub-district, Jetis sub-district, Sanden sub-district and Sewon sub-district. Areas that became coldspot more than once and potentially vulnerable to AI disease are Girimulyo sub-district, Lendah sub-district, Moyudan sub-district, Prambanan sub-district, Turi sub-district, Gedangsari sub-district, Purwosari sub-district, Banguntapan sub-district, Pajangan sub-district, Imogiri sub-district and Bambanglipuro sub-district Chi-Square analysis show the correlation between poultry population and number of AI cases in DIY province in 2009-2012. This mean that AI cases DIY province was affected by number of poultry population. Poultry population control can affected the AI cases. ARIMA (0,2,1) model was used to identify AI cases temporal pattern in 2009-2012. Temporal pattern shows the increasing trend of AI cases in January-March. Timing of AI cases coincided with the rainy season.
Keyword: avian influenza, hotspot, spatial analysis, temporal analysis

Judul: Penggunaan Teorema Homeomorphy 2-Manifold dan Teorema Euler Poincare pada Torus 𝑇�� dan Simplicial Complex 𝐾��
Abstrak: Two dimensional topological spaces are said to be homeomorphic if they have the same topological invariant, where one of topological invariant used is an Euler characteristic. Homeomorphy 2-Manifold’s Theorem and Euler Poincare’s Theorem are used to distinguish two topological spaces. Homeomorphy 2-Manifold’s Theorem uses Euler characteristic to identify two dimensional topological spaces. Euler Poincare’s Theorem is an alternative way to find Euler characteristic with Betti number, which is topological invariant as well. The objective of this paper is to investigate the homeomorphism of torus 𝑇����� and simplicial complex 𝐾�����. Topological space torus and simplicial complex 𝐾����� have the same Euler characteristic, which is two. Based on Homeomorphy 2-Manifold’s Theorem topological space torus 𝑇����� and simplicial complex 𝐾����� is homeomorphic.
Keyword: simplicial, torus, Euler, homeomorphism, topology