Judul: Forecasting Land Use Change and the Impact on Water Yield at Watershed Scale
Abstrak: One of the most important issues in watershed management is the use of land, especially in the upstream catchment area. People effort to fulfill their ends meet can cause land conversion. As a result of the land conversion, the Cisadane River condition seems quite apprehensive in the last two decades. Environmental degradation in Cisadane watershed in both the upstream and downstream has a heavy impact to the availability of water resources in Cisadane River. In relation to this fact, an in-depth study on land use change in Upstream Cisadane Watersheds and its dynamics need to be conducted. Particularly, the impact of land use change on water yield. This research purpose is to forecast the future of land use changes (using CLUE-S) and assess the impact of the predicted land use changes on water yield in Upstream Cisadane Watershed (using HEC-HMS). This research was conducted in Upstream Cisadane Watershed – Bogor. The study area is Upstream Cisadane Watershed with outlet of watershed in Empang, which located in both Bogor Regency and Bogor Municipality. Geographically, it is located between 6036’26.05” – 6047’08.49” South Latitude and 106044’30.27” – 106056’36.76” east longitude. Four scenarios are developed based on land use demand (population growth) and area restriction (spatial policy). The scenarios presented are not necessary the most realistic, but are made in such a way that they provide information on the functioning of the model. Binomial logistic regression is used to examine the relation between land use and possible driving factor. The result of this analysis are coefficient values that shows the contribution of each driving factor to land use change. ROC (Relative Operating Characteristics) is a method to measure the goodness of the statistical model. The probability of each land use resulted from logistic regression is compared to the real land use map to calculate the equal category of each grid cell between those maps. This method will depict the capability of regression equation to represent land use characteristics. The goodness of the statistical measurement revealed that ROC values for urban water area, grassland area, estate area, settlement area and forest area were 0.903, 0.701, 0.780, 0.813 and 0.994, which indicated that the probability of land uses built from these models were capable to represent land use changes and empirical analysis by using logistic regression method was satisfactory to examine the relationship between driving factors and land use change in study area. Through model validation process shows that overall accuracy and Kappa accuracy for land use simulation are 90.83 % and 86.00 % or categorized as fit. It indicates that the driving factors have a good capability to explain land use pattern in study area and it can be used to predict future land use pattern. According to the change detection for the land use classification year 1991, simulated year 2000, year 2010, year 2020 and year 2030, it can be seen that settlement, forest and grassland area are increasing over time, whereas estate tend to decrease and water remains constant. Based on the findings, settlement area were significantly increase during the period 1991-2009 and causing
Keyword: Bogor Agricultural University (IPB)

Judul: Analisis Perubahan Penutupan dan Penggunaan Lahan di DAS Ciliwung dan Cisadane
Abstrak: In this study, we examined the spatial and temporal patterns of land use and cover change (LUCC) and population change dynamics in the Northern Watershed of West Java. Those watersheds are Ciliwung and Cisadane. The objective of this study was to quantify the drivers of LUCC using long-term Landsat image data from 1978, 1995 and 2012. We found the changing of LUCC, especially in those watersheds boundary still continues since the growth of society and economy are increasing. Therefore, it needs a significance breakthrough to figure out the driver of LUCC of changing by using an easy and smart technology of Geographical Information System (GIS). A GIS gives the information about the driver of LUCC and at the same time monitoring the enviromental for minimizing some efforts of direct observation. The results show that the changing in those watersheds following several processes and in the end changed into settlements and dry lands, predominantly. The predicted drivers are number of population, density of population, soil type, slope, precipitation, and distance to city. The logistic regression analysis (LRA) by using forward stepwise model show that those drivers inclined to affect LUCC, respectively.
Keyword: Bogor Agricultural University (IPB), watershed management, Landsat image, Cisadane Watershed, Ciliwung Watershed

Judul: Infeksi Virus Parainfluenza Pada Anjing
Abstrak: Virus parainfluenza anjing termasuk famili Paramyxoviridae, berbentuk pleomorf dengan ukuran bervariasi (bergaris tengah antara 100-500 nm), berpembungkus peka ether, berisi genom RNA dan secara serologis mempunyai kesamaan dengan virus SV-5 kera; dikenak sebagai salah satu kausa penting dari sindrom "kennel cough". Infeksinya dapat mengenai anjing semua umur yang belum pernah terinfeksi atau mendapatkan vaksinasi mengakibatkan gejala klinis ringan yang terbatas pada traktus respirasi atu infeksi yang secara klinis tidak memperlihatkan gejala nyata. Gejala klinis yang nampak setelah masa inkubasi (1-5 hari) terlewati berupa batuk yang tidak berat selama beberapa hari, berbagai tingkat tonsilitis dan pharyngitis dan kadang-kadang ditemukan kenaikan temperatur rektal antara 1-2 derajat C dari temperatur normal rat-rata. Anjing terinfeksi mengandung virus pada traktus respirasi bagian atas dan bawah serta limfonoduli sampai hari ke 9 setelah infeksi. Penyebaran virus antar anjing terjadi secara aerogen.
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