Judul: Sebaran Bersama Berbasis Copula dan Coincidence Probability antara Data Curah Hujan dan Hari Tanpa Hujan di Sumatera Bagian Selatan
Abstrak: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dan Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) dapat memengaruhi penurunan intensitas curah hujan dan peningkatan hari tanpa hujan yang dapat menyebabkan kekeringan dan meningkatkan potensi kebakaran hutan. Penelitian ini mengkaji pengaruh kondisi ENSO dan IOD terhadap sebaran bersama curah hujan dan hari tanpa hujan di daerah rawan kebakaran di Sumatera bagian selatan, Indonesia. Daerah rawan kebakaran didefinisikan menggunakan k-mean clustering, sedangkan parameter copula diestimasi menggunakan metode inference of function for margins (IFM). Hasil menunjukkan bahwa kondisi ENSO dan IOD tidak berpengaruh nyata pada musim hujan tetapi sangat berpengaruh pada musim kemarau. Sementara itu, berdasarkan coincidence probability, kondisi ENSO masih memengaruhi sebaran bersama antara curah hujan dan hari tanpa hujan pada musim hujan tetapi tidak dengan kondisi IOD. El Nino Moderat-Kuat memiliki coincidence probability paling besar sebesar 86.53%, diikuti IOD Positif sebesar 83.96% pada musim kemarau. Oleh karena itu, hubungan antara curah hujan dan hari tanpa hujan di musim kemarau lebih kuat daripada di musim hujan., El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can affect in decreasing rainfall intensity (precipitation) and in increasing days without rain, a.k.a dry spells, which can cause drought and the potential for forest fires. This study examines the effect of ENSO and IOD conditions on the joint distribution of precipitation and dry spells in southern Sumatra, Indonesia. Fire-prone areas are defined using k-mean clustering, while the copula parameters are estimated using the inference of functions for margin (IFM) method. The result shows that the ENSO and IOD conditions have no significant effect in the rainy season but they are very influential in the dry season. Meanwhile, based on coincidence probability, ENSO conditions still affect the joint distribution between precipitation and dry spells in the rainy season but IOD conditions do not. Moderate-Strong El Nino has the highest coincidence probability of 86.53%, followed by Positive IOD of 83.96% in the dry season. Therefore, the relationship between precipitation and dry spells in the dry season is stronger than it is in the rainy season.
Keyword: Coincidence Probability, Copula, ENSO, IOD, Precipitation

Judul: Analisis Pembentukan Sebaran Bivariat Berbasis Copula Antara Luas Area Terbakar dan Curah Hujan di Sumatra Bagian Selatan
Abstrak: Kebakaran hutan dan lahan selalu terjadi setiap tahunnya di Indonesia. Luas area terbakar memiliki hubungan tidak langsung dengan curah hujan. Fungsi copula dapat memodelkan hubungan bivariat curah hujan sebagai iklim global dengan kebakaran hutan, khususnya di Sumatera bagian Selatan. Oleh karena itu studi ini menganalisis dan memodelkan sebaran bivariat berbasis copula antara curah hujan dan luas area terbakar. Data dipilah berdasarkan indikator iklim global El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dan Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Estimasi parameter model dilakukan menggunakan metode Inference of Function for Margins (IFM). Hasil menunjukkan bahwa sebaran bersama antara curah hujan dan luas area terbakar dipengaruhi oleh indeks ENSO dan IOD. Semakin tinggi indeks ENSO dan IOD, semakin tinggi peluang luas area terbakar pada saat curah hujan rendah dan sebaliknya. Pernyataan tersebut diperkuat dengan peluang bersyarat terjadinya luas area terbakar lebih dari 200 ribu hektar ketika curah hujan dalam kondisi rendah, sangat kecil hampir mendekati nol ketika La Nina dan IOD Negatif. Sementara itu pada kondisi El Nino Moderat Kuat dan IOD Positif, peluang terjadinya luas area terbakar tersebut masih terbilang tinggi yaitu lebih dari 20%., Forest and land fires always occur every year in Indonesia. The area burned has an indirect relationship with rainfall. The copula function can model the global climate as an indicator of forest fires, especially in southern Sumatra. Therefore, this study analyzes and models the copula-based bivariate distribution between rainfall and burned area. Data are sorted by global climate indicators El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The estimation of the model parameters is carried out by using the Inference of Function for Margins (IFM) method. The result show that the ENSO and IOD indices influence the joint distribution of rainfall and burned area. The higher the ENSO and IOD indices, the higher the probability of the area being burned during low rainfall and vice versa. This statement is reinforced by the conditional probability that a burned area of more than 200 thousand hectares is almost near zero when La Nina and IOD are negative. Meanwhile, in Strong Moderate El Nino and Positive IOD conditions, the probability of the area being burned is still relatively high, more than 20%.
Keyword: conditional probabality, correlation, copula

Judul: Case Study of Gallbladder Mucocele and Treatment Used In Small Animals
Abstrak: Gallbladder mucocele (GM) is defined as distention of the gallbladder caused by an inappropriate accumulation or deposition of high concentrations of bile. The purpose of this case study is to study GM conditions in small animals and to report the clinical sign and characteristics of GM through the sonogram interpretation and blood chemistry test evaluation, and studies related to the therapy given and other treatments recommended. A 14-year-old Toy Poodle dog has been diagnosed with severe GM and cholecystitis. No pain signs were shown during the physical examination as asymptomatic is a common characteristic in the early stage of biliary related diseases. In this study Abdominal ultrasonography interpretation and blood chemistry evaluation was conducted in 2021-2022 and analyzed as a secondary data source. Ultrasonography results showed presence of hyperechoic, immobile deposits in gallbladder accompanied by wall thickening and enlarged in size, followed by a significant increase in the enzyme alkaline phosphatase (ALP). This study has summarized mainly the diagnosis and treatments of GM in small animals and suitable alternatives treatments were recommended to encounter the GM conditions in small animals. The effectiveness of combined therapy shows the positive impact on the patient, the condition of GM has been under control.
Keyword: ultrasound, gallbladder, biliary sludge, abdominal ultrasonography