Judul: Aggregate Production Planning of Plastic Product X at CV. Sumber Anugrah Plastik
Abstrak: CV Sumber Anugrah Plastik merupakan perusahaan yang memproduksi produk plastik X. Permasalahan yang dihadapi perusahaan adalah hasil produksi tidak mampu memenuhi jumlah permintaan yang menyebabkan keterlambatan pemenuhan permintaan yang berdampak pada membengkaknya biaya produksi dan menurunnya minat konsumen. Maka dari itu, perusahaan perlu menentukan perencanaan untuk pengendalian produksi dengan meminimalkan biaya. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah mengkaji perencanaan produksi agregat yang dilakukan perusahaan, menentukan metode peramalan yang optimal, dan memilih strategi perencanaan agregat (chase, level. mixed strategy) dengan biaya termurah. Jenis data berupa data primer dan sekunder yang umumnya bersifat kuantitatif. Data diolah dengan perangkat lunak POM for Windows versi 3. Metode trend analysis dengan tingkat kesalahan 28% dan perencanaan strategi chase menjadi pilihan dengan biaya yang dihasilkan paling minimum (Rp 2.285.790.036,-) dan perkiraan laba sebesar (Rp.18.514.701.714,-).
Keyword: aggregate planning, chase strategy, demand forecasting, level strategy, mixed strategy

Judul: Perencanaan Produksi Agregat  Pt. Unitex, Tbk
Abstrak: As an integrated textile company agroindustry, PT. Unitex, Tbk has developed into one of the companies that successfully survive in the competitive global textile industries in the world. With the increasingly tight competition, require an industry to make the production process at an optimal and efficient. To achieve maximum production, each industry to do some planning of production. Aggregate production planning is the planning that is comprehensive and general. Planning will be conducted to provide a broad picture of the conditions that will come. Thus, in decision making can be determined is the best policy for the company in achieving the target and the efficiency of production. This study aims to identify the factors and issues that effect in aggregate production planning at PT. Unitex, Tbk., Make forecasts and forecasting demand for products to meet consumer needs, plan a schedule of aggregate production and optimal efficiency by considering the target to be achieved by the company. Planning is reviewed in this research are limited in the process of cloth production, the Yard Dyed and Piece dyed. Planning horizon for 12 periods (months). In the demand forecasts, the model used was the model ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average), which was developed by Box Jenkins. In its processed with the program package Minitab 14. Results from the demand forecasts is the basis for the preparation of the production planning model. Aggregate production planning is done by considering the factors in the decision making of management company associated with the production capacity, product supply, the determination of regular working hours and overtime with the cost of production may be minimize. Determining the optimal level of efficiency as the settlement of aggregate production planning to use this method or model linier goal programming with the help of the program package LINDO (Linier discrete Interactive Optimizer). Policy management company set three priority objectives in the aggregate production planning, namely: (1) Level of production to meet the number of requests, (2) Production is not more than regular working hours are available, and (3) Production is not be in romance of overtime work hours are available. Planning is the result of the optimal planning that minimize distortions of the target to be achieved by the company in production. Appropriate model is used to model the demand forecasts ARIMA (1,0,1) with a total of 12.914.586 forecasts demand meters. Aggregate production planning results indicate that the amount of production in the regular working hours of 12.311.759 meters, so that production takes time in the overtime hours worked during the 309 hours and the amount of production on overtime working hours of 602.827 meters. The results of this plan required the total cost of production of up to Rp. 134.828.277.840,00.
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Judul: Thermal Characteristics and Dynamics of Tropical Cyclone over Western North Pacific Ocean: A Case Study of Typhoon Songda (Chedeng) 2011
Abstrak: The frequent occasion of Tropical Cyclone (TC) over Western North Pacific (WNP) Ocean lies from 10˚N to 26˚N and 121˚E to 170˚E. Sources of TC development come from warm ocean temperature where latent heat is released during condensation processes and subsequently concentrated in the boundary layer. Relative humidity at 850-700 hPa is responsible to produce the most intense storm. Meanwhile, weak vertical wind shear between 850-200 hPa is one of the dynamical factors that lead to the development of TC. Pressure level of 850-200 hPa is chosen to minimize the thermodynamic effect in the lower troposphere. Typhoon Songda (Chedeng in the Philippines) or TSC lasted from May 18th to 30th, 2011 and strengthened into powerful Super Typhoon stage between May 24th and 27th. Long curving track and the exhibition of all sequences of TC life cycle, TSC is then considered as an ideal case of TC. The objective of the study with case of TSC is to investigate the role of thermal characteristics and dynamics on TC intensity. The research is carried out by using Advanced Research of Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF ARW model) version 3.3. Two domains are employed in the model. The first domain situate from 02˚N to 40˚N and 118˚E to 149˚E and cover spatial resolution () of 33.1 km. The second domain situate from 09˚N to 27˚N and 119˚E to 132˚E with of 11 km. Timestep of the model () is 120 seconds. The model is supported by the following physical parameterization, i.e., Yonsei University Scheme (YSU) in the boundary layer, Kain-Fritsch scheme (KF) in the cumulus, and WRF Single-Moment 3-class scheme in the microphysics. Initial meteorological condition prior to the formation of the cyclone is generated using WRF ARW standard-release model. Sensitivity of the model output is obtained from a selected single-parameter change scenarios, namely, 10 % to 20 % decrease and increase of wind shear initial data at 850-200 hPa, and by 10 % to 20 % decrease of relative humidity initial data at 850-700 hPa. The result showed that the negative correlations between wind shear and intensity are found in wind shear scenarios. Wind shears of 10 ms-1 which lead to strengthening of the wind intensity in the early period of Typhoon development are found in wind shear scenarios. The effect of wind shear changes on wind intensity is statistically significant in the 20 % wind shear scenarios. During mature stage, weak wind intensity occurred when wind shear increase as given in the WRF standard-release and the 20 % decreasing scenario. Different situation is found in the 20 % increasing scenario where wind shear tend to weak and lead to strong wind intensity at this stage. Meanwhile, the reduction of moisture supply at 850-700 hPa resulting from 20 % decreasing relative humidity play a major role in the weakening of wind intensity and reduces mechanical energy of the cycle process as much as 300 J kg-1.
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