Judul: Dampak Volatilitas Nilai Tukar Terhadap Kinerja Ekspor Lada Indonesia
Abstrak: Since the breakdown of Bretton Woods system in 1973, topic on the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade has been drawn attention of many researchers. However, discussion on the topic remains ambiguous and becomes an empirical issue. Indonesia is an emerging country that heavily depends on agricultural export as one of its national income sources. As Indonesia’s agricultural trade has become largely integrated with global trade, it inevitably involves other currencies on its transactions. Pepper (Piper nigrum) is one of the most exported spices in Indonesia followed by cinnamon, cloves, and vanilla. Due to its strong dependency on international trade, Indonesian pepper exports are suspected to be prone to exchange rate volatility risks. This paper aims to analyze the exchange rate volatility and examine the relationship between bilateral exchange rate volatility from 2005 to 2019 using the gravity model and GARCH(1,1) model as the proxy of exchange rate volatility. The results of bilateral exchange rate volatility analysis versus Indonesia’s pepper trading partners indicate that the highest volatility for all of the currencies occurred between 2008 and 2009 due to the recent financial crisis or GFC. Amidst the shock, Indonesia was reported to have resilient growth. The results of the gravity model reveal that during the observation period, Indonesian pepper exports are not affected significantly by the exchange rate volatility. This is because Indonesia has been in the position as a net exporter of pepper where a majority of its production is consumed abroad. Moreover, pepper only costs a small percentage of the total cost of food productions. Since pepper is included as necessity goods, pepper demand is relatively not responsive to the price changes (inelastic). Therefore, the effects are not large enough to affect Indonesian pepper exports. Pepper has a good opportunity for export expansion since the results suggest that it is resistant to exchange rate volatility risks. To support this, the efforts that can be used are to maintain the currency stability, support on providing hedging facilities, and optimize the application of warehouse receipt system (WRS) for the better competitiveness. For future research, it is recommended to use more data in the analysis and try to use other variables that may be related to this topic. Finally, it is also recommended to compare the results with other volatility measurements.
Keyword: Gravity model, exchange rate volatility, GARCH(1,1), Indonesian spice, Indonesian pepper trade

Judul: Analysis of Competitiveness, Potential,  and Factors Affecting Indonesian Whole Pepper Exports to Main Destination  Countries
Abstrak: Salah satu komoditas unggulan ekspor perkebunan yang menjadi sumber pendapatan negara yang bernilai tinggi adalah lada utuh. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis daya saing dan pasar potensial untuk ekspor lada utuh yang bisa dikembangkan, serta mengetahui faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi ekspor komoditas lada utuh. Periode yang digunakan pada penelitian ini yaitu 2010-2020 dengan menggunakan metode RCA, EPD, X-Model, dan regresi data panel. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa lada utuh memiliki keunggulan komparatif yang kuat di seluruh negara tujuan ekspor yang diteliti, sementara pangsa pasar lada utuh Indonesia sebagian besar menempati posisi falling star dengan pengembangan pasar potensial. Hasil analisis dengan regresi data panel menunjukkan bahwa PDB per kapita negara tujuan, harga ekspor, nilai tukar riil, jarak ekonomi, dummy Covid-19, dan dummy kebijakan TBT berpengaruh signfikan terhadap volume ekspor lada utuh Indonesia sedangkan variabel dummy kebijakan SPS tidak berpengaruh signfikan terhadap ekspor lada utuh Indonesia ke negara tujuan utama., One of the leading export commodities of plantations which is a source of high-value state income is whole pepper. This study aims to analyze the competitiveness and potential market for whole pepper exports that can be developed, as well as to determine the factors that affect the export of whole pepper commodities. The period used in this study is 2010-2020 using the RCA, EPD, X-Model, and panel data regression methods. The results showed that whole pepper has a strong comparative advantage in all export destination countries studied, while the market share of Indonesian whole pepper mostly occupies a falling star position with potential market development. The results of the analysis with panel data regression showed that the GDP per capita of the destination country, export prices, real exchange rates, economic distance, the Covid-19 dummy, and the TBT policy dummy had a significant effect on the volume of Indonesian whole pepper exports, while the SPS policy dummy variable had no significant effect on Indonesian whole pepper exports to main destination countries.
Keyword: panel data, EPD, RCA, whole pepper, X-Model

Judul: Quantum Convolutional Neural Network (QCNN) for Classification Brain Tumor MRI Image
Abstrak: Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengembangkan model deteksi tumor otak menggunakan citra MRI dengan metode Quantum Convolutional Neural Network. Data yang digunakan adalah citra MRI otak yang terdiri dari citra tumor otak glioma, meningioma, hipofisis, dan negatif tumor yang dibagi kedalam data latih dan uji dengan rasio 80:20. Selanjutnya data latih dilakukan penyeimbangan dengan teknik oversampling. Dilakukan pengembangan model untuk mendeteksi tumor otak (biner), dan juga model untuk mengklasifikasikan jenis tumor otak (multiclass). Parameter yang digunakan dalam pengembangan model adalah jumlah ukuran filer = 2 dan kedalaman = 4, dengan qubit 4, dan dilatih dengan jumlah epoch sebanyak 10. Data akan diproses dengan metode Quantum Convolutional Neural Network yang terdiri dari lapisan quantum convolution, lapisan flatten, dan lapisan dense. Model multiclass mendapatkan akurasi 52%, setelah data latih diseimbangkan akurasi model meningkat menjadi 62%, sedangkan model biner mendapatkan akurasi 88%, setelah data latih diseimbangkan akurasi model meningkat menjadi 89%.
Keyword: Citra MRI, Klasifikasi Citra, QCNN, Tumor Otak