Judul: Climate risk analysis at upper citarum watershed effect of climate and land use change
Abstrak: This research was conducted in Upper Citarum Watershed, West Java province with total area of 172,046 ha, from May to November 2012. The main objective of this study was to assess the effect of climate and land use changes on current and future flood risk in the upper watershed. The assessment was done using dynamic simulation model called Soil Water Assesessment Tool (SWAT). The SWAT model was calibrated using observation data from January 2001 to December 2002 and validated using observation data of 2003 and 2004. Calibration process were done using SUFI. The SUFI-2_SWAT CUP adjusted 20 parameters of the model consisting of streamflow, groundwater, main channel, hygrograph response unit, landuse management and soil parameters that provide the maximum correlation value between observation and simulation. The result of validation of the calibrated model provided Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.773 with R2 0.771 indicating the model is reliable to be used for further assessment. The assessment used land use 2000, 2010 and land use projection up to 2025 assuming the pattern of land use change following historical pattern. The percent forest cover under the three landuses was 42%, 34% and 26% respectively. The result of the assessment indicated that the land use influences the flood risk. The land with less forest cover would be exposed to higher flood risk. Under land use of 2000, the return period of having heavy flood was once in 14 years, under land use of 2010 and 2025, it increased to once in 13 and 10 years respectively. Climate change would increase flood risk. Under land use of 2010, the return period of flood risk will increase from once in 13 years to once in 5 years.
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Judul: Analysis of River Discharge by MWSWAT Model on Several Landuse at Upper Citarum Watershed, West Java.
Abstrak: Observation was conducted at Upper Citarum Watershed, West Java Province in area of 12.000 km2 The highest of landuse change was 1994 to 2005, where the forest had been change to other landuse. The result of calibrated SWAT model showed that the model was quite accurate to predict surface flow at Upper Citarum Watershed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency value of 0.714 and R. The purpose of this study were (1) to identify rate of landuse changes at Upper Citarum Watershed (2) to analyze river discharge by SWAT Model (3) to calibrate SWAT model with landuse 2001 (4) to validate parameters model with landuse of 1994, 1997 and 2005 (5) to analyze river discharge of calibrated SWAT model with land use of 1994, 1997 and 2001. 2 The analysis by calibrated SWAT model was done based on rainfall data in 2005 for landuse 1994, 1997 and 2001. The analysis result on landuse 1994 showed that surface flow was 112.5 mm and discharge rate was 76.7 m = 0.715. The calibration process was done by adjusting thirteen very sensitive parameters : Surlag ,MSK_Col1, MSK_Col2, MSK_X (.BSN), alpha BF, Shallst, GWQMIN, REVAPMN, GW DELAY (QW File), CHK2 (RTE File), CHNI (SUB File), EPCO (HRU File) and CN2 (.MGT File) . 3/s.The highest surface flow of 126.6 mm with discharge rate of 77.4 m3/s were obtained from analysis by calibrated SWAT model, landuse 1997 and rainfall in 2005. From analysis by calibrated SWAT model , landuse 2001 and rainfall in 2005 were obtained surface flow of 107.5 mm and discharge rate of 76.8 m3 /s
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Judul: Keberadaan Antibodi Asal Induk Newcastle Disease (ND) dan Infectious Bronchitis (IB) pada Broiler yang Divaksinasi Vaksin Rekombinan HVT-IBD
Abstrak: Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mempelajari keberadaan antibodi asal induk terhadap virus Newcastle Disease (ND) dan Infectious Bronchitis (IB) pada broiler yang divaksinasi dengan vaksin rekombinan Herpesvirus of Turkey (HVT) - Infectious Bursal Disease (IBD). Pada penelitian ini digunakan dua kelompok ayam yaitu: Kelompok Vaksinasi dan Tidak Vaksinasi. Kelompok vaksinasi menerima vaksin rekombinan HVT-IBD pada umur 1 hari. Sampel serum dikoleksi pada umur 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 19, 22, 26, 29, dan 33 hari. Titer antibodi ND ditentukan dengan uji Hemaglutinasi Inhibisi (HI), sedangkan Enzyme-linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) digunakan untuk menentukan titer antibodi IB. Antibodi ND pada kedua kelompok masih terdeteksi sampai broiler berumur 33 hari, namun titer antibodi ND positif hanya sampai umur 6 hari dan tidak mencapai level protektif. Antibodi IB masih pada level positif sampai dengan umur 6 hari pada kelompok divaksin dan 3 hari pada kelompok tidak divaksin. Hasil penelitian ini mengindikasikan bahwa diperlukan vaksinasi ND pada broiler berumur 3 hari dan vaksinasi IB pada broiler berumur lebih dari 6 hari.
Keyword: Antibodi asal induk, broiler, Infectious, Bronchitis, Newcastle Disease