Judul: Linkage Analysis of Vegetable Oils and Crude Oil Prices in Vegetable Oils World Trade
Abstrak: The increasing as non-food uses of vegetable oils especially as biodiesel and the basis of the oleochemical industry, making the formation of vegetable oil prices in world trade has been linked to world prices of crude oil in addition to linkages with the world price of vegetable oils competitor. The objectives of this study were (1) to analyze the linkage of the world price of crude oil and vegetable oil simultaneously, (2) to make the forecasting of the real price of crude oil and vegetable oil in world market, the vegetable oil real price in domestic market and the performance of Indonesian palm oil industry, particularly the production, domestic supply, domestic consumption and export volumes of Indonesian palm oil for the period 2012-2025, (3) to examine the impact of the changes of the external factors and trade policy by the vegetable oil’s exporting countries and importing countries on the world trade of vegetable oils, and particularly the production, domestic supply, domestic consumption and exports volumes of Indonesian palm oil and (4) to formulate the policy for development of the Indonesian oil palm industry in the future. The study employs an econometric model and specification was dynamic simultaneous equations and consists of 81 behavioral equations and 16 identities equations. Parameters are estimated using Two Stage Least Squares methods for the period 1980-2008. This study finds that real price projections in the world market of 2012-2025 periods showed that the price fluctuations of crude oil and vegetable oil tend to have same patterns with slightly trend to increases. Although positively correlated, the percentage increase of vegetable oils price as the effect of the increasing of crude oil price is less than the percentage change of crude oil prices, except for soybean oil prices that vista vies with the percentage change of crude oil prices. The effect on percentage change of price of soybean oils is the highest and then followed by sunflower oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil. Beside the chemical characteristics, this condition thought to be related to the limited volumes of vegetable oils world’s productions and the food sector needs as a main constraints in the use of vegetable oils as crude oil substitutes. As annual crop commodities and the substitutes of seed oils, however, palm oil price has more responsive to export fluctuation then seed oils. Base on this study, in order to support the Indonesian oil palm industry, the Indonesian government has been suggested (1) to develop the domestic market, (2) to ensure the exchange rate stability and the palm oils trade policy and (3) to arrange the grand design of Indonesian oil palm industry for the long run term.
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Judul: Analisis Volatilitas Harga Minyak Sawit dan Harga Minyak Goreng
Abstrak: Crude palm oil industry has bright prospect in vegetables oil competition. Nowadays crude palm oil is the most produced and consumed.. Indonesia is the biggest crude palm oil exporter contributing 46.2 percent of world’s total supply in 2011. One of palm oil based downstream industry which is important in Indonesia is cooking oil industry. Cooking oil is one of the important nine basic needs for people. Cooking oil consumption tends to increase and this condition has been fullfiled by domestic industry. This because Indonesia has surplus condition in cooking oil. Unfortunately this surplus condition doesnot guarantee low and stable price domestically. The aims of this research are to analyze volatility of crude palm oil price and cooking oil, to analyze effect of crude palm oil export policy to the volatility of palm oil price and cooking oil and to analyze effect of value added tax borne by government to the cooking oil volatility. Data used in this research is secondary data which is daily time series data, period January 2005 to March 2012. Volatility of palm oil price and cooking oil in this research is built on the basis of time series econometric methods called autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity/ generalized autoregressive conditional eteroschedasticity (ARCH GARCH) Analysis results to price volatility of crude palm oil and cooking oil show different pattern. Volatility of crude palm oil is influenced by volatility of two previous periods, meanwhile volatility of cooking oil is influenced by volatility and variance last period. Volatility of cooking oil price is higher than volatility of cooking oil. Analysis results to progressive export tax policy of crude palm oil and value added tax borne by government towards cooking oil industry give different effect to price volatility. Implementation of Export tax policy to crude palm oil leads to constant price volatility of crude palm oil and cooking palm oil price until the end of analysis period, with the result that export tax policy can stabilize crude palm oil price and cooking oil. On the other hand value added tax borne by government towards cooking oil price leads to unstable price volatility of cooking oil until the end of analysis period. It can be concluded that value added tax borne by government cannot stabilize of cooking oil price
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Judul: Desain hipotetis taman bermain untuk anak-anak cacat fisik
Abstrak: Tujuan pembuatan karya ilmiah ini adalah untuk memberikan alternatif disain tempat latihan fisioterapi dan memberikan usul pengembangan sarana rekreasi bagi anak- anak cacat fisik. Taman bermain ini perlu dibuat khusus untuk anak-anak cacat fisik agar mereka dapat mengembang- kan kemampuannya seoptimal mungkin. Penelitian dilakukan dengan menggunakan metode suvey dengan teknik observasi dan wawancara. Data yang dicari adalah data kondisi fisik alami dan data mengenai anak-anak cacat fisik. Tapak yang digunakan sebagai contoh kasus adalah tapak milik YPAC. Tapak tersebut pada kondisi awal merupakan tempat parkir. Inventarisasi kondisi fisik alami meliputi: ukuran batas dan kondisi tapak, topografi, tanaman, sirkulasi, elemen keras, utilitas dan kesan panca indera. Data mengenai anak-anak cacat fisik didapat dari hasil wawancara dengan ahli fisioterapi, orangtua dan anak- anak cacat fisik. Data yang ingin didapat adalah data keinginan dan saran didalam pembuatan taman bermain dan masalah-masalah yang dihadapi pada saat latihan fisio terapi. Berdasarkan hasil sintesis, dibuat konsep sebuah taman bermain yang terdiri dari ruang aktif untuk bermain dengan banyak aktifitas fisik, ruang pasif untuk melihat rekan yang sedang bermain dan menikmati flora dan fauna yang ada, ruang gudang untuk menyimpan alat-alat pemeli- haraan dan ruang sirkulasi untuk pergerakan kendaraan dan manusia di dalam tapak. Untuk ruang bermain aktif maka mainan yang dibuat didasarkan dengan keinginan mengembangkan kemampuan motorik anak-anak cacat fisik. Mainan-mainan didisain sesuai dengan konsep yaitu mengikuti perkembangan anak sejak bayi dari merangkak/merayap, duduk, jalan, berlari, melompat dan lain-lain…dst
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