Judul: Dampak perubahan harga internasional komoditas ekspor utama terhadap perekonomian Indonesia
Abstrak: The change of international prices have caused world’s economy fluctuating. The Gulf war crisis, in 2005, had an impact on oil prices increased. The declining of global demand, as an impact of global economy crisis recently (2008), has impacts on Indonesia economy. This research analyses the impact of international price change of major Indonesia’s exported commodities on Indonesia economy based on modified Indonesia SAM 2005 as a data framework and SAM-Based CGE model as a tool. Three simulations were made by shocking international price of the main exported commodities from its base-line price to examine the impacts by comparing base-line and counterfactual figures. Simulation I is made by giving a shock on international prices (pwe) of ten main exported commodities based on quarter 1(q1)/2008 up to quarter2 (q2)/2009 trend prices simultaneously. Simulation II is made by decreasing international prices of ten main exported commodities by 25% partially. Simulation III is made by increasing international prices of ten main exported commodities by 25% partially.
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Judul: Dampak Guncangan Eksternal dan Domestik terhadap Makroekonomi Indonesia
Abstrak: As a small open economy country, Indonesia is exposed to various external and domestic events that can potentially interfere its domestic macroeconomic stability. Hence, it is necessary to have appropriate policies in order to reduce the excessive fluctuations in economy. The aim of this study is to assess the main shocks affecting the domestic economy and also to find out domestic macroeconomic responses when shocks happen. To achieve aforementioned objectives we use a SVECM method with a set of short run restrictions based on the New Keynesian framework. This study finds that the domestic shocks hold an important role for the fluctuations of the domestic macroeconomy, meanwhile the external shocks including world oil price shock have less important role. Demand shock, ultimately real exchange rate shock, evidently become as important as supply shock, which is permanently responded by GDP and the real exchange rate. Moreover, this study also find that money neutrality occurs both in the shortrun and long-run.
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Judul: Pembuatan Film Tipis Lithium Niobat (LiNbO3) Menggunakan Metode Chemical Solution Deposition (CSD) dengan Variasi Kecepatan Putar (Rpm).
Abstrak: Film tipis merupakan salah satu aspek yang mendapat perhatian sangat besar dalam bidang material, karena film tipis merupakan material menarik yang memiliki sifat optik yang sangat tergantung pada konstanta dielektrik, indeks bias, dan energi gap. Lithium Niobat (LiNbO3 ) dapat digunakan sebagai pelapis pada film tipis karena memiliki sifat piezoelektrik, electrooptical, pyroelectrical dan photorefractive yang sangat baik. Film tipis Lithium Niobat (LiNbO3 ) ditumbuhkan menggunakan metode Chemical Solution Deposition (CSD) dengan variasi kecepatan 3500 rpm, 5000 rpm, 6500 rpm, dan 8000 rpm. Metode ini memiliki keunggulan dapat mengontrol stokiometri film tipis dengan kualitas yang baik, prosedur yang mudah dan membutukan biaya yang relatif murah. Energi band gap yang dihasilkan dari film tipis Lithium Niobat (LiNbO3) berkisar antara rentang 2.1 eV – 2.8 eV dengan indeks bias berada pada rentang 2.18-3.2. Film tipis LiNbO3 memiliki parameter kisi a=b=5.54Ǻ dan c = 16.35 Ǻ. Struktur morfologi film tipis adalah permukaan yang homogen dan ukuran kristal berada pada rentang 0.417 μm – 0.680 μm.
Keyword: sifat optik, litium niobat, chemical solution deposition, kecepatan putar