Judul: Climate Change Projection based on Regional Climate Model’s Output (Case study: Indramayu Regency and Pacitan Regency)
Abstrak: Climate change projection study in regional scale can be done by using regional climate model, one of them is by using Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3). RegCM3 has a wide range of adjustable parameters that can be set in order to obtain the simulation results that fit to the observed climatic conditions of the studied regions. One of the adjustable parameters available in the model is related to the use of cloud/convective parameterization schemes. In this study, two convective schemes were assessed for the studied regions, i.e. Grell and MIT-emanuel convective schemes. Based on the analysis of both schemes, it was shown that the MIT-Emanuel convective scheme can deliver better results in simulating seasonal rainfall pattern in the studied regions, i.e. in Indramayu and Pacitan. Nevertheless, the MIT-emanuel scheme tends to reproduce overestimate rainfall compared to the observation, resulting systematic biases that require corrections by using correction factors. In this research, the study of climate change projections was conducted based on SRES A1B emissions scenario, which describes the balance of the use of fossil and non-fossil energy in the future. Model results showed that the rainfall were projected to change relative to current baseline from -43.81 to 34.02% in the district of Indramayu, and from -37.95 to 45.25% in the district of Pacitan. The mean air temperatures were also projected to increase from 0.43 to 2.94 0C for Indramayu and from 0.48 to 2.55 0C for Pacitan. Analysis in the change of extreme rainfall showed that the probability or the frequency of extreme rainfall will increase in Pacitan, while remain relatively constant in Indramayu.
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Judul: Evaluasi Skema Konveksi dalam Model Iklim Regional RegCM4 untuk Simulasi Keragaman Curah Hujan Musiman dan Intra Musiman di Indonesia
Abstrak: RegCM4 simulations for Indonesia based on two different convective schemes (MIT and Grell) have been done in this study. The simulations were conducted for two consecutive years between 1998 and 1999 periods for Indonesia. Two different convective schemes were evaluated based on their ability in simulating seasonal and intraseasonal rainfall variability in the region. The modeled seasonal rainfall were analyzed through their comparisons with satellite-based rainfall observation data from TRMM. The results show that the MIT-based rainfall simulation produced higher rainfall mostly over mountainous regions and lower rainfall in some other areas over Indonesia compared to the observation. Differently, the Grell scheme underestimated rainfall over almost all areas in the country. In analysis of monthly rainfall, Grell could describe monsoonal and equatorial pattern of monthly rainfall in Cengkareng and Pontianak station better than MIT. MIT couldn’t describe monsoonal and equatorial pattern of Cengkareng and Pontianak rainfall which are located in low land. Despite its tendency of being more sensitive over mountainous areas, MIT was found to be better in simulating the seasonal cycle of rainfall than Grell. In order to ilustrate intraseasonal variability of rainfall, MJO was used as the case reference. Principal component analysis of TRMM, MIT, and Grell were calculated and analyzed in order to detect MJO phases. This was done by comparing the PC results with RMM Index. The output of MIT and Grell Schemes can well recognize MJO signal by giving higher rainfall value on the MJO events affecting the region. However, it has not known yet which better scheme could be used in ilustrating intraseasonal rainfall variability, because the PCA time series of MIT and Grell still have another cycle beside of MJO cycle. MIT scheme consider to be more dominant in describing intraseasonal rainfall variability based on the higher PCA’s percentage of variant. As a whole of this study, MIT was found better in representing Indonesian Rainfall Variability than Grell. Thus, MIT scheme can be used in other simulations of RegCM4 on Indonesian Climate Studies
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Judul: Isolasi komponen hemotoksin bisa ular kobra (Naja naja sputatrix)
Abstrak: Elisa ular adalah racun yang diproduksi oleh kelenjar bisa dan digunakan ular untuk mempertahankan dinat mencari mangsa. Bisa ini merupakan campuran dari berbagai komponen. Enzim adalah kompoth utama selain air. Enzim pada bisa ular sangat beragam jenis dan fungsinya. Fosfolipase dan arginin ipadase adalah enzim yang sering terdapat dalam bisa ular dan telah digunakan pada penanganan penyak seperti trombosis Penttian ini bertujuan mengisolasi komponen dari bisa ular kobra dan mengujinya menggunakan sel darah merah sapi 4% untuk aktivitas hemolisis dan bekuan fibrin sapi untuk aktivitas fibrinolisis. Uji aktivitas dilakukan terhadap ekstrak kasar dan fraksi kolom bisa ular. Fraksi kolom diperoleh dari pemurutan ekstrak kasar menggunakan kromatografi filtrasi gel (Sephadex G-75) untuk memperoleh fraksa paksu dengan serapan tertinggi pada A. 280 nm. Ekstrak kasar dan fraksi kolom dengan serapan tertinggi dilakukan pengukuran kandungan protein, Fraksi aktif hasil uji aktivitas selanjutnya ditentukan berat molekulnya (BM) dengan elektroforesis SDS PAGE. Basaglar kobra merupakan cairan pekat berwarna kuning dengan kadar air 71.45%. Dari hasil uji aktivitas diperoleh bisa ular hanya memiliki aktivitas hemolisis sel darah merah sapi secara langsung. Aktivitas ini ditunjukkan oleh fraksi kolom nomor 15 dan 16 tetapi tidak dalam ekstrak kasar. Penurunan konsentrasi ekstrak kasar tidak mempengaruhi terhadap adanya aktivitas hemolisis. Hal ini diduga karena mungkin terdapat inhibitor dalam ekstrak kasar bisa. Inhibitor memiliki BM yang berbeda dengan enzim hemalisis sehingga dapat dipisahkan menggunakan filtrasi gel. Berdasarkan hasil elektroforesis diperolch enzim bemolisis terdapat dalam ekstrak kasar dan tersebar pada fraksi kolom nomor 15 dan 16 dengan BM sekitar 27300 Da
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