Judul: Perbandingan Mean Residual Life Plot dan Measure of Surprise untuk Menentukan Nilai Ambang Batas
Abstrak: Curah hujan ekstrem dapat mengakibatkan bencana alam seperti banjir dan tanah longsor. Bencana alam tersebut akan menimbulkan kerusakan dan kerugian bagi lingkungan sekitar. Pencegahan terhadap kerusakan akibat bencana alam tersebut dapat dilakukan dengan menduga curah hujan ekstrem. Pendugaan curah hujan ekstrem dilakukan berdasarkan Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) yang membutuhkan informasi nilai ambang batas. Nilai ambang batas dapat ditentukan dengan dua metode yaitu Mean Residual Life Plot (MRLP) dan Measure of Surprise (MOS). Tujuan penelitian ini yaitu menentukan dan membandingkan nilai ambang batas dengan MRLP dan MOS. Data yang digunakan adalah data curah hujan dasarian dan bulanan. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan prosedur MOS lebih singkat dan mudah daripada prosedur MRLP. Berdasarkan hasil validasi silang, nilai log-likelihood MOS lebih besar daripada nilai log-likelihood MRLP sehingga MOS lebih baik daripada MRLP.
Keyword: GPD, MOS, MRLP, threshold

Judul: Penentuan Ambang Batas Curah Hujan Ekstrim dengan Mean Residual Life dan Threshold Choice (Studi Kasus : Curah Hujan Periode 1977-2010 di Stasiun Pondok Betung)
Abstrak: Rainfall has a high diversity and potentially extreme rainfall which can cause flood. Extreme rainfall information needs to be known early to anticipate the possibility of flooding by determining the threshold value. This threshold value can be determined by the 90th percentile, Mean Residual Life (MRL), and Threshold Choice (TC) based on Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Threshold value in Pondok Betung station is 61 mm, based on daily rainfall data in 1977-2010. In general, the majority of flood events occur when daily rainfall at Pondok Betung station above 61 mm.
Keyword: GPD, MRL, TC

Judul: Kandungan Kolesterol dan Vitamin A Ayam Arab yang Diberi Jamu Ternak Melalui Air Minum
Abstrak: Egg as one source of protein needed by the body contains high amount of essential amino acids, however in reality there is a constraint factor in consuming the eggs which is the high level cholesterol in an egg. Nowadays the cholesterol content of eggs is feared by most of the public in relation to its effect. Excess cholesterol can cause health problems, but on the other hand the yolks contain vitamin A which is good for the body. This research was aimed to study the cholesterol and vitamin A content of Arab chicken egg yolks with addition of herbs through drinking water it is expected to reduce the cholesterol level and increase the amount of vitamin A in egg yolks. This experiment was conducted in poultry house in block C of Animal Science Faculty, Bogor Agricultural Institute, it lasted from June to August 2011. Chicken used in this study was 48 arab hens by age 19 weeks. Research procedures include the preparation of cages and equipment, maintenance and provisions of herbal medicine. The design used in this study was a completely randomized design (CRD). The content of cholesterol during 5 weeks of herbal medicine with level of 5 ml per head and 10 ml per head was 535.28 mg/100 g up to 563.51 mg/ 100 g. The addition of herbal medicine for 3 consecutive days (per week) are mixed in hens drinking. The level differences does not affect the content of cholesterol in egg yolk, but the existence of different herbal medicine addition level provides different amount of vitamin A. The content of vitamin A in egg yolks for a treatment P0 (without herbs) amounted to 596.787 μg/ 100 g, P1 (herbs 5 ml/head/day) : 700.034 μg/ 100 g and P2 (10 ml/head/day) : 800.962 μg/ 100 g.
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