Judul: Asimetri Harga Beras dan Daging Sapi di Indonesia
Abstrak: Penelitian ini menganalisis pergerakan dan asimetri harga beras dan daging sapi pada tingkat produsen dan konsumen antarwilayah di Indonesia. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini merupakan data harga beras dan daging sapi di tingkat produsen dan konsumen dari tahun 2010 sampai 2017. Metode yang digunakan dalam analisis yaitu Error Correction Model (ECM). Pergerakan harga beras dan daging sapi antar wilayah di Indonesia berfluktuasi sepanjang periode 2010-2017. Harga beras di tingkat produsen lebih fluktuatif daripada harga beras di tingkat konsumen. Sedangkan harga daging sapi di tingkat konsumen lebih fluktuatif daripada harga daging sapi di tingkat produsen. Transmisi harga beras di tingkat konsumen terhadap harga di tingkat produsen terjadi secara asimetris, baik dalam jangka pendek maupun dalam jangka panjang. Pada hubungan produsenkonsumen, transmisi harga beras di tingkat produsen terhadap harga di tingkat konsumen terjadi secara asimetris dalam jangka pendek, namun simetris dalam jangka panjang. Sedangkan transmisi harga daging sapi di tingkat konsumen terhadap harga di tingkat produsen bersifat simetris baik dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang.
Keyword: Asimetri Harga, Beras, Daging Sapi, ECM

Judul: Transmisi dan Asimetri Harga Beras di Indonesia
Abstrak: Beras merupakan salah satu komoditas tanaman pangan dan sumber karbohidrat bagi sebagian penduduk Indonesia, sehingga beras dijadikan sebagai indikator kemiskinan. Permintaan beras yang bersifat inelastis maka fluktuasi harga beras menjadi perhatian pemerintah. Transmisi harga beras berlangsung secara asimetri, sehingga menyebabkan disparitas harga yang tinggi antar lembaga dalam rantai pemasaran beras. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pergerakan harga beras pada tingkat produsen, pasar induk, dan konsumen serta menganalisis asimetri harga beras di Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan data sekunder yaitu data time series, berupa data harian beras medium dan premium dari 1 Januari-31 Desember pada tahun 2017 dengan menggunakan metode Error Correction Model (ECM). Hasil analisis penelitian menunjukkan bahwa berdasarkan nilai koefisien variasi (CV), harga produsen lebih berfluktuatif dibanding dengan harga pasar induk dan konsumen. Hasil analisis transmisi harga beras medium dan premium menunjukkan bahwa pada jangka panjang untuk kedua jenis beras tersebut bersifat asimetri.
Keyword: Asimetri Harga, Beras, ECM

Judul: Thermal Characteristics and Dynamics of Tropical Cyclone over Western North Pacific Ocean: A Case Study of Typhoon Songda (Chedeng) 2011
Abstrak: The frequent occasion of Tropical Cyclone (TC) over Western North Pacific (WNP) Ocean lies from 10˚N to 26˚N and 121˚E to 170˚E. Sources of TC development come from warm ocean temperature where latent heat is released during condensation processes and subsequently concentrated in the boundary layer. Relative humidity at 850-700 hPa is responsible to produce the most intense storm. Meanwhile, weak vertical wind shear between 850-200 hPa is one of the dynamical factors that lead to the development of TC. Pressure level of 850-200 hPa is chosen to minimize the thermodynamic effect in the lower troposphere. Typhoon Songda (Chedeng in the Philippines) or TSC lasted from May 18th to 30th, 2011 and strengthened into powerful Super Typhoon stage between May 24th and 27th. Long curving track and the exhibition of all sequences of TC life cycle, TSC is then considered as an ideal case of TC. The objective of the study with case of TSC is to investigate the role of thermal characteristics and dynamics on TC intensity. The research is carried out by using Advanced Research of Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF ARW model) version 3.3. Two domains are employed in the model. The first domain situate from 02˚N to 40˚N and 118˚E to 149˚E and cover spatial resolution () of 33.1 km. The second domain situate from 09˚N to 27˚N and 119˚E to 132˚E with of 11 km. Timestep of the model () is 120 seconds. The model is supported by the following physical parameterization, i.e., Yonsei University Scheme (YSU) in the boundary layer, Kain-Fritsch scheme (KF) in the cumulus, and WRF Single-Moment 3-class scheme in the microphysics. Initial meteorological condition prior to the formation of the cyclone is generated using WRF ARW standard-release model. Sensitivity of the model output is obtained from a selected single-parameter change scenarios, namely, 10 % to 20 % decrease and increase of wind shear initial data at 850-200 hPa, and by 10 % to 20 % decrease of relative humidity initial data at 850-700 hPa. The result showed that the negative correlations between wind shear and intensity are found in wind shear scenarios. Wind shears of 10 ms-1 which lead to strengthening of the wind intensity in the early period of Typhoon development are found in wind shear scenarios. The effect of wind shear changes on wind intensity is statistically significant in the 20 % wind shear scenarios. During mature stage, weak wind intensity occurred when wind shear increase as given in the WRF standard-release and the 20 % decreasing scenario. Different situation is found in the 20 % increasing scenario where wind shear tend to weak and lead to strong wind intensity at this stage. Meanwhile, the reduction of moisture supply at 850-700 hPa resulting from 20 % decreasing relative humidity play a major role in the weakening of wind intensity and reduces mechanical energy of the cycle process as much as 300 J kg-1.
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