Judul: Analisis Risiko Produksi Bunga Potong Gerbera (Herbras) pada PT Hilal Perdana Kreasi Kabupaten Cianjur
Abstrak: PT Hilal Perdana Kreasi adalah salah satu perusahaan pembudidaya bunga potong gerbera yang usahanya tidak terlepas dari risiko. Adanya pengaruh faktor lingkungan dan manusia menyebabkan terjadinya fluktuasi produksi dengan tren penurunan produksi dan produktivitas. Fluktuasi dengan tren penurunan mengindikasikan adanya risiko produksi yang dihadapi perusahaan. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah mengidentifikasi sumber risiko produksi, menganalisis kemungkinan terjadi nya risiko (probabilitas) dan dampak serta merumuskan alternatif strategi yang dapat direkomendasikan kepada perusahaan. Hasil identifikasi sumber risiko menggunakan metode deskriptif terdapat dua sumber risiko yaitu tenga kerja dan penyakit. Analisis probabilitas menggunakan metode z-score menghasilkan urutan probabilitas dari yang terbesar sampai terkecil adalah tenaga kerja dan hama. Analisis dampak menggunakan metode Value at Risk menghasilkan dampak terbesar hingga terkecil secara berurutan adalah tenaga kerja dan hama. Startegi preventif dilakukan untuk sumber risiko tenaga kerja sedangkan strategi mitigasi untuk risiko tenaga kerja dan hama.
Keyword: bunga potong gerbera, risiko produksi, Value at Risk, Z-Score

Judul: Analisis Risiko Produksi Bunga Krisan Potong pada Perusahaan Berkah Flora di Kecamatan Megamendung, Kabupaten Bogor
Abstrak: Floriculture products which ranks the highest as well as an opportunity to developed compared to other products is the Chrysanthymum morifolium. Berkah Flora is one of the Chrysanthymum morifolium growers whose business is inseparable from the existence of a risk . The influence of environmental factors and human factor caused fluctuations in Chrysanthymum morifolium production and productivity of intersection. These fluctuations are an indication of the production risks facing the company. The purpose of this research is to identify the source of production risk, probalitity analysis, implication and alternative strategic for handling Chrysanthymum morifolium type standard and a spray. The results of the identification of the source of production risk is obtained by using descriptive analysis of risk sources including pests, diseases, weather and labor. Probablitas analysis results use z – score method at both the type of Chrysanthymum morifolium have different rank from highest to smallest are the source of the risk of pests , diseases , weather , labor ( standard type ) and pests , disease , weather , labor (type spray ) . Implication Analysis use Value at Risk method at both types of Chrysanthymum morifolium have different rank from the highest to smallest are risk of pests , weather , labor , disease ( standard type ) and pests , disease , weather , labor ( spray type ) . Preventive Startegic conducted for risk of pests and diseases, while Mitigation Startegic conducted for risk of pests, diseases,weather, and labor.
Keyword: Value at Risk, z-score, production risk, Chrysanthymum morifolium

Judul: Variabilitas Suhu Permukaan Laut dan Interelasinya dengan Muson, Dipole Mode (DM) dan El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) di Perairan Asia Tenggara dan Sekitarnya.
Abstrak: Variability of air-sea interaction in the Southeast Asia and its surrounding waters has an important role for regulating the Asian and Australian climate dynamics and the dynamics of ocean-atmosphere in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The results of the first five largest variance of Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of monthly mean sea surface temperature between 1979- 2007 from data assimilation of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in the Southeast Asia waters are able to identify occurrence of the Monsoon activity, the period of Dipole Mode (DM) in Indian Ocean and types of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean. The heat dynamics of the sea and atmosphere in the Indonesia waters are probably the triggers of DM and ENSO after performing spectral density function of EOF expansion coefficients, wavelet transform and composite analysis based on one times of standard deviation above positive and below negative of expansion coefficient using Earth System Research Laboratory-National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (ESRL-NOAA) dataset, including wind data, air temperature, air pressure, outgoing long wave radiation (OLR), rainfall, precipitation, evaporation, sensible heat, latent heat and humidity. Schematics of the dynamical processes of oceanatmosphere interaction were constructed based on composite analysis results by discovering unique pattern which are called as phase of Asymmetric Monsoon of Southeast Asia waters (AMSA), Heat Storing/releasing of Southeast Asia waters (SRSA), Dipole Mode of Southeast Asia waters (DMSA), Tripole Mode of Southeast Asia waters (TMSA) and the Mixed Mode of Southeast Asia waters (MMSA) to examine more insightful of the relationships between heat dynamics in the Southeast Asia and the origin processes of Monsoon, DM and ENSO. The rest difference of heat accumulation of AMSA phase in the Southeast Asia are therefore led to a shift of Monsoon and triggering a biennial cycle of the Tropical Biennial Oscillation (TBO) associated with decadal cycle in the SRSA phase is the beginning of DM and ENSO activity. After couple times of biennial cycle, the remaining difference of heat accumulation in the Southeast Asia is getting bigger and needed a new heat balance that generates a trigger of DM period and some types of ENSO. At the DMSA phase was formed DM transition period and conventional ENSO pattern, the TMSA phase as DM transition period and Central Pacific ENSO spread type (CP El Nino/La Nina spread type) and the MMSA phase which coincided peak of DM and Central Pacific ENSO centralized type (CP El Nino/La Nina centralized type).
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