Judul: Demand Forecasting Analysis of SME in Times of Covid-19 Pandemic (Study Case: School Uniform Store)
Abstrak: Munculnya kasus Coronavirus Disease (Covid-19) menimbulkan berbagai dampak bagi perekonomian Indonesia, salah satunya bagi penyedia seragam sekolah dengan adanya kebijakan Belajar Dari Rumah. Analisis peramalan permintaan pada Toko Endra penting untuk dilakukan agar toko dapat memperkirakan penjualan di periode berikutnya. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meramalkan permintaan seragam dan menentukan metode peramalan kuantitatif terbaik untuk masing-masing jenis seragam. Peramalan dilakukan terhadap dua jenis seragam yaitu kemeja putih L dan rok pramuka XL. Metode yang digunakan adalah Analisis Tren, Moving Average, Double Exponential Smoothing, dan Winter’s Exponential Smoothing. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa metode yang tepat untuk meramalkan permintaan periode mendatang adalah Winter’s Exponential Smoothing bagi kemeja putih L dan metode Analisis Tren bagi rok pramuka XL karena memiliki nilai MAD dan MSE yang terkecil dibandingkan metode yang lainnya., The Coronavirus Disease (Covid-19) pandemic effected stores that provide school uniform since the new rules of Study from Home was implemented to prevent the spread of the virus. Demand forecasting analysis of Toko Endra is important to predict the demand of school uniform for the next period. The purpose of this research are to forecast the demand of school uniform and to find the best quantitative method for each type of uniform. The forecast was performed on two type of uniform, White Shirt L and Scout Skirt XL. The method used were Trend Analysis, Moving Average, Double Exponential Smoothing, and Winter’s Exponential Smoothing. The result shows the best method to forecast the demand for the next period are Winter’s Exponential Smoothing for White Shirt L and Trend Analysis for Scout Skirt XL for having the smaller value of MAD and MSE than the others.
Keyword: Double Exponential Smoothing, MAD, Moving Average, MSE, Trend Analysis, Triple Exponential Smoothing

Judul: Estimation of Economics Loss Because of COVID-19 Towards Trade Sectors in Pekanbaru City
Abstrak: Pandemic COVID-19 was striking Indonesia in the early 2020, which certainly brought impacts toward many sectors in the country, including trade sector. The governments has applied new rules and regulations to adapt with the new normal situation during the pandemic COVID-19, such as Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar (PSBB), and then proceed to get the society to adapt with the new normal environment. These new regulations has certainly bring huge impact to small to medium business enterprises where they experience massive loss in their income. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to: (1) analyze the perception of the business owner towards COVID-19 and the applied regulations in Pekanbaru City, (2) estimate the loss in the food, clothing, apothecary business, (3) analyze the business risk level towards mall, minimarket, traditional market, (4) analyze strategy steps in recovery of the trade sector. This research used Likert scale, income loss, risk assessment and descriptive analysis. The result of the research shows that the society’s perception towards PSBB policies has significant effect towards economy sector. However, COVID-19 case is not too high, it’s the opposite side with new normal where the society agreed that getting vaccinated is one of the best way so that the activity can be normal again. The estimated loss for clothing business is IDR 65 billion rupiah, traditional market loss is about IDR 10 billion rupiah, meanwhile apothecary experience significant raises in income for IDR 12 billion rupiah. Meanwhile, risk assessment were split to 3 assessment, which is risk assessment towards mall, minimarket, and traditional market. The mitigation done to improve the new health protocol, vaccine as a new mandatory for activities, and starts using PeduliLindungi to visit controlled malls and minimarket. Steps and strategies that are done to minimize the spread of COVID-19 is to improve marketplace and websites for malls, provide the facility for small medium enterprises to do sales promotion, and provide vaccine supplies for the society., Indonesia memasuki pandemi COVID-19 pada tahun 2020, mengakibatkan sektor perdagangan terdampak. Pemerintah mengeluarkan kebijakan PSBB (Pembatasan Sosial Bersekala Besar) kemudian dilanjutkan dengan adaptasi kebiasaan baru (new normal). Akibat kebijakan tersebut unit usaha mengalami kerugian. Maka dari itu, tujuan dari penelitian ini: (1) menganalisis persepsi pelaku usaha terhadap COVID-19 serta kebijakan yang telah diberlakukan di Kota Pekanbaru, (2) mengestimasi besar kerugian pelaku usaha sandang, pangan, apotek, (3) menganalisis tingkat risiko usaha terhadap mal, swalayan, pasar, (4) menganalisis langkah strategi dalam pemulihan sektor perdagangan. Penelitian ini menggunakan skala likert, kehilangan pendapatan, penilaian risiko, dan analisis deskriptif. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa persepsi pelaku usaha kebijakan PSBB berdampak terhadap perekonomian namun kasus COVID-19 tidak terlalu tinggi berbanding terbalik dengan new normal dan pelaku usaha setuju bahwa vaksin menjadi salah satu syarat beraktivitas agar kegiatan kembali normal. Total kerugian pada toko pakaian Rp.65.000.000.000, pedagang pasar mengalami kerugian Rp.10.000.000.000, apotek mengalami kenaikan Rp.12.000.000.000. Penilaian risiko dibagi menjadi 3 yaitu penilaian risiko terhadap mal, swalayan, pasar. Mitigasi yang dilakukan peningkatan protokol kesehatan, vaksin sebagai salah satu syarat kegiatan, serta mulai mengggunakan pedulilindungi agar pengunjung dapat terkontrol. Langkah dan strategi untuk meminimalisir kerugian adalah pengembangan marketplace web untuk mal, penyediaan
Keyword: policies, economic loss, risk assessment, shopping place

Judul: Posisi Filogenetik Kura-Kura Carettochelys Insculpta  (Reptillia: Testudinata)
Abstrak: Carettochelys insculpta is an endemic freshwater turtle of southern Papua and northern Australia. Phylogenetic position of this turtle is remain unresolved until now. Most of the research conducted show close relationships of C. insculpta and members of Trionychidae family. However, some of the research show distance between C. insculpta and members of Trionychidae family. This research is conducted to analyze phylogenetic relationship between C. insculpta and other members of Testudinata using 12S rRNA, 16S rRNA, and both gene as markers. DNA samples were obtained from three different organisms of C. insculpta. Two species used as outgroups were Alligator mississippiensis and Iguana iguana. Phylogenetic analysis was carried out using Neighbor-Joining method with Felsenstein 1981 (F81) modeltest. A polytomy tree of Testudinata was produced by using 12S rRNA gene. However, analysis using 16S rRNA and both genes as markers confirmed that C. insculpta was located between the Chelonidae and the Trionychidae family.
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