Judul: Arima Model For Monthly Temperature And Rainfall In Bogor
Abstrak: average condititon among items from many components of climate system. There arc many factors determine the differences of the climate among one place to another place in the world. The climate•s components very often used to define the climate in some place arc the temperature and the minfal!. The damages caused by climate (such as: drought, flood, global wanning) actually can be avoided if we have known climate prediction. such as periodicity. rainfall prediction and temperature prediction. Bogor that is known as "'rain city" is very interesting to investigate like what the pattern of it '5 rainfall and temperature. The temperature in Bogor have periodicity of 12 monthly and the rainfall have periodicity of 36 monUlly (3 yearly). The model for the montilly temperature in Bogar is as [ollOlr: X, = 0,8254X,.! + X,." - 0.8254X'.13 +c, - 0.4186c'.1 - 0.9475c,." + 0.3966c'.13. The model for the lllontIlly rainfall in Bogar is as follow: X, = 0.8455X'~6+0.1525X'.72"'" +0.1318£'.1 -0.8567£,.",+0.1129£'-37. From these both satisfactory models we established. we can explore and analyse lImy strong the PHst temperature correlates to the present temperature. And from these model we can also do forecasting. Key words: Stationarity. Ergodicity. Autocorrelation Function. ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) ModeL Q Box-Pierce Test. Forecasting.
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Judul: Autoregressive vector analysis for the rainfall model (a case study of rainfall in Darmaga, Bogor in 2001 – 2009)
Abstrak: Weather and climate are natural signs that are very needed by humans and other organisms living on earth. Both of them have elements such as light, air humadity, air temperature, air pressure, wind (including direction and speed), and rainfall. The updated data about weather and climate, with its forecast, becomes important for some periods in the future. The purpose of this research is referred to the use of Vector Autoregressive (VAR) to develop the rainfall model. Model forming for each variable was using weather element data in 2001 – 2008, while model validation was using data in January – December 2009. The VAR model of rainfall variable in montht was significantly influenced by wind speed variable in month t-1. Then, these two VAR application model was stated in impuls response function and variance decomposition. For VAR model validation, MAPE was used for each model. In rainfall forecast for three months later, MAPE value that was achieved was 49,600.
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Judul: Potensi Disinfektan Sebagai Bahan Aktif untuk Sediaan Kastrasi pada Mencit.
Abstrak: Kastrasi kimiawi dapat digunakan sebagai alternatif dari kastrasi terbuka. Tujuan dari penelitian ini untuk menguji potensi bahan kimia disinfektan sebagai sediaan bahan kimia untuk kastrasi pada mencit. Penelitian ini menggunakan zat aktif disinfektan sebagai material kastrasi kimiawi pada mencit. Mencit dibagi menjadi 7 kelompok : kloroxylenol 4.8% (C4, n=4), povidon iodin 10% (P10, n=4), kloroxylenol 2.4% dan povidon iodin 5% (C2P5, n=4), kloroxylenol 1.2% dan povidon iodin 2.5% (C1P2, n=4), sodium hipoklorit (N5, n=4), NaCl 0.9% (N, n=4), dan akuadestilata (A, n=3). Disinfektan sebanyak 0,2 mL diinjeksi pada masing-masing testis pada setiap kelompok. Daya hidup mencit setelah kastrasi kimiawi pada kelompok perlakuan C4, C2P5, C1P2, kontrol A, dan kontrol N berada diantara 25-100%. Populasi mencit mati 100% dalam 24 jam pada kelompok perlakuan P10 dan sodium hipoklorit. Kastrasi kimiawi menggunakan disinfektan menyebabkan penurunan ukuran testis; perubahan profil eritsosit, limfosit relatif, neutrofil relatif; dan menyebabkan struktur anekhoik pada jaringan testis 7 hari setelah kastrasi kimiawi. Kombinasi kloroxylenol 1.2% dan povidon iodin 2.5% dapat digunakan sebagai agen kastrasi kimiawi pada mencit.
Keyword: mencit, kastrasi kimiawi, kloroxylenol, povidon iodin, sodium hipoklorit