Judul: Dampak perubahan harga internasional komoditas ekspor utama terhadap perekonomian Indonesia
Abstrak: The change of international prices have caused world’s economy fluctuating. The Gulf war crisis, in 2005, had an impact on oil prices increased. The declining of global demand, as an impact of global economy crisis recently (2008), has impacts on Indonesia economy. This research analyses the impact of international price change of major Indonesia’s exported commodities on Indonesia economy based on modified Indonesia SAM 2005 as a data framework and SAM-Based CGE model as a tool. Three simulations were made by shocking international price of the main exported commodities from its base-line price to examine the impacts by comparing base-line and counterfactual figures. Simulation I is made by giving a shock on international prices (pwe) of ten main exported commodities based on quarter 1(q1)/2008 up to quarter2 (q2)/2009 trend prices simultaneously. Simulation II is made by decreasing international prices of ten main exported commodities by 25% partially. Simulation III is made by increasing international prices of ten main exported commodities by 25% partially.
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Judul: Dampak guncangan harga minyak mentah dunia terhadap harga beras domestik (suatu analisis kointegrasi)
Abstrak: Rice is a substantial strategic and food comodity in Indonesia and also in some countries in the world, particularly in Asia. Therefore, the stability of rice price and the availability should be maintained, especially rice is also known as unstable commodity. Starting in 1994, Indonesia became a net importer of rice commodity, then, Indonesia‟s rice market is allegedly integrated with the world‟s rice market. Consequently, any changes or shock in the world‟s rice market, which is one of its shocks caused by world oil price shock, will affect the domestic rice market. The objectives of this study are: (1) to analyze factors that influence the domestic rice price, (2) to analyze the effect of changes on the world oil price shocks to the domestic rice price. The applicable method for this study is vector error correction model (VECM) with analysis tools are IRF, FEVD, and pass-through. The estimation results indicate that there is a cointegration in the models studied. In the short-term, factors (variables) that affect the domestic rice price are the price of imported rice, domestic rice price, and the price of crude oil. Besides, in the long run, factors (variables) that affect the domestic rice price are the price of imported rice, world rice price, and production rice. The variables that largely influence the domestic rice price are world rice price and price of imported rice. On the other hand, a variable that slightly affect is the total factor productivity (TFP).
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Judul: Pembuatan Film Tipis Lithium Niobat (LiNbO3) Menggunakan Metode Chemical Solution Deposition (CSD) dengan Variasi Kecepatan Putar (Rpm).
Abstrak: Film tipis merupakan salah satu aspek yang mendapat perhatian sangat besar dalam bidang material, karena film tipis merupakan material menarik yang memiliki sifat optik yang sangat tergantung pada konstanta dielektrik, indeks bias, dan energi gap. Lithium Niobat (LiNbO3 ) dapat digunakan sebagai pelapis pada film tipis karena memiliki sifat piezoelektrik, electrooptical, pyroelectrical dan photorefractive yang sangat baik. Film tipis Lithium Niobat (LiNbO3 ) ditumbuhkan menggunakan metode Chemical Solution Deposition (CSD) dengan variasi kecepatan 3500 rpm, 5000 rpm, 6500 rpm, dan 8000 rpm. Metode ini memiliki keunggulan dapat mengontrol stokiometri film tipis dengan kualitas yang baik, prosedur yang mudah dan membutukan biaya yang relatif murah. Energi band gap yang dihasilkan dari film tipis Lithium Niobat (LiNbO3) berkisar antara rentang 2.1 eV – 2.8 eV dengan indeks bias berada pada rentang 2.18-3.2. Film tipis LiNbO3 memiliki parameter kisi a=b=5.54Ǻ dan c = 16.35 Ǻ. Struktur morfologi film tipis adalah permukaan yang homogen dan ukuran kristal berada pada rentang 0.417 μm – 0.680 μm.
Keyword: film tipis, sifat optik, litium niobat, chemical solution deposition, kecepatan putar