Judul: Climate risk analysis at upper citarum watershed effect of climate and land use change
Abstrak: This research was conducted in Upper Citarum Watershed, West Java province with total area of 172,046 ha, from May to November 2012. The main objective of this study was to assess the effect of climate and land use changes on current and future flood risk in the upper watershed. The assessment was done using dynamic simulation model called Soil Water Assesessment Tool (SWAT). The SWAT model was calibrated using observation data from January 2001 to December 2002 and validated using observation data of 2003 and 2004. Calibration process were done using SUFI. The SUFI-2_SWAT CUP adjusted 20 parameters of the model consisting of streamflow, groundwater, main channel, hygrograph response unit, landuse management and soil parameters that provide the maximum correlation value between observation and simulation. The result of validation of the calibrated model provided Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.773 with R2 0.771 indicating the model is reliable to be used for further assessment. The assessment used land use 2000, 2010 and land use projection up to 2025 assuming the pattern of land use change following historical pattern. The percent forest cover under the three landuses was 42%, 34% and 26% respectively. The result of the assessment indicated that the land use influences the flood risk. The land with less forest cover would be exposed to higher flood risk. Under land use of 2000, the return period of having heavy flood was once in 14 years, under land use of 2010 and 2025, it increased to once in 13 and 10 years respectively. Climate change would increase flood risk. Under land use of 2010, the return period of flood risk will increase from once in 13 years to once in 5 years.
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Judul: Modeling of Flood for Land Use Management (Case Study of Ciliwung Watershed)
Abstrak: Floods are one of the major disasters affecting many countries in the world year after year. It is an inevitable natural phenomenon occurring from time to time in all rivers and natural drainage systems. It causes damage to lives, natural resources and environment as well as the loss of economy and health. Floods represent complex problems because of its variety. Therefore, this variety cannot be studied or controlled only by one or two specific methods. The objectives of this research are to understand the process of flood events and its interaction with hydrometeorological components, to develop flood model for watershed management and to determine the effect of land use change to watershed discharge which indicates flood event. The research consists of four processes those are 1) Data Preparation, 2) Model Development, 3) Model Simulation and 4) Model Calibration and Validation. Data preparation was conducted for two kinds of data namely spatial data and tabular data. Model developed as numerical model of the hydrology of a river basin system. This model includes the response of watershed to precipitation, the actions of the river network as water flows through the river, the effect of land use changes, and the effect of engineering structures to the watershed. Model simulated by change land use as an input. Model calibrated by using water level data of field measurement in year 1996 and model validated by using water level data of field measurement in year 2000. The result of this reseach showed how the process based modeling is useful to model hidrological processes over the watershed. Precipitation is the main input for hidrology simulation and land use change gives the effect of water level in the watershed. The model which is built in this research can be used to evaluate runoff from different land use areas. For assessing the hydrological effects of land use changes on floods, three hypothetical scenarios, namely urbanization, deforestation and afforestation scenario, were considered made. It was found from the model simulation that the urbanization scenario has the higest negative impact on increasing water level. Deforestation has the second largest negative impact, while afforestation causes positive impact shown by decreasing water level. The result indicated that the urbanization produce the highest peak flow, followed by the deforestation and afforestation scenario. The simulated water level for the present land use is 84 cm, for the urbanization scenario 135 cm, deforestation scenario 92 cm, and afforestation scenario 59 cm. Accordingly, the urbanization scenario increases the peak discharge by 61%, the deforestation scenario increase 15%, and afforestation decrease by 19%.
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Judul: Trichomonas Gallinae Penyebab Trichomonosis Pada Unggas
Abstrak: Trichomonas gallinae adalah protozoa yang bergerak aktof dengan keempat flagella yang mempunyai layar dan pada salah satu sisinya terdapat membran seperti sirip ikan yang berombak. Spesies dari genus Trichomonas ini mempunyai arti penting pada unggas, karena dapat menyebabkan infeksi pada alat pencernaan bagian atas.
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