Judul: Analisis Risiko Produksi Bunga Krisan Potong pada Perusahaan Berkah Flora di Kecamatan Megamendung, Kabupaten Bogor
Abstrak: Floriculture products which ranks the highest as well as an opportunity to developed compared to other products is the Chrysanthymum morifolium. Berkah Flora is one of the Chrysanthymum morifolium growers whose business is inseparable from the existence of a risk . The influence of environmental factors and human factor caused fluctuations in Chrysanthymum morifolium production and productivity of intersection. These fluctuations are an indication of the production risks facing the company. The purpose of this research is to identify the source of production risk, probalitity analysis, implication and alternative strategic for handling Chrysanthymum morifolium type standard and a spray. The results of the identification of the source of production risk is obtained by using descriptive analysis of risk sources including pests, diseases, weather and labor. Probablitas analysis results use z – score method at both the type of Chrysanthymum morifolium have different rank from highest to smallest are the source of the risk of pests , diseases , weather , labor ( standard type ) and pests , disease , weather , labor (type spray ) . Implication Analysis use Value at Risk method at both types of Chrysanthymum morifolium have different rank from the highest to smallest are risk of pests , weather , labor , disease ( standard type ) and pests , disease , weather , labor ( spray type ) . Preventive Startegic conducted for risk of pests and diseases, while Mitigation Startegic conducted for risk of pests, diseases,weather, and labor.
Keyword: Value at Risk, z-score, production risk, Chrysanthymum morifolium

Judul: Analisis Risiko Produksi Pembibitan Bunga Krisan pada MBA Farm Cianjur Jawa Barat
Abstrak: Krisan adalah salah satu tanaman hias dengan nilai volume produksi tertinggi di Indonesia. MBA Farm merupakan perusahaan yang bergerak di bidang pembibitan bunga krisan di Cianjur. MBA Farm menghadapi kendala dalam fluktuasi produksi bibit bunga krisan yang mengindikasikan adanya risiko produksi. Oleh karena itu, perlu mengidentifikasi sumber-sumber risiko produksi tersebut, menganalisis besarnya probabilitas dan dampak dari risiko tersebut, dan menganalisis manajemen strategi penanganan risiko dalam memproduksi bibit bunga krisan. Metode yang digunakan untuk menganalisis peluang dan dampak risiko adalah metode z-score dan Value at Risk (VaR). sumber risiko yang teridentifikasi diantaranya adalah kualitas air, kualitas sekam, kualitas mother plant, dan cuaca yang tidak menentu. Sumber risiko dengan nilai probabilitas tertinggi adalah kualitas sekam, sedangkan sumber risiko dengan dampak yang tertinggi adalah kualitas air. Sumber risiko yang berada di kuadran III adalah kualitas sekam dan kualitas air. Sehingga alternatif strategi untuk menghadapi suber risiko tersebut adalah strategi preventif yang dapat menurunkan nilai probabilitasnya, sedangkan strategi mitigasi dapat menurunkan dampak yang ditimbulkan oleh kedua sumber risiko tersebut.
Keyword: risiko, produksi, krisan, pembibitan krisan

Judul: Hamiltonian formulation for linear waves motion in two layers fluid
Abstrak: The surface wave could be considered as a wave that separates two fluids, namely water and air. Based on this assumption, it is introduced the interfacial wave, a wave between two layers of fluid with different density. The formulation of interfacial waves motion begins with deriving the base equation of irrotational ideal fluid. Furthermore, according to irrotational fluid assumption, the base equation can be stated in velocity potential. In this derivation, the fluids domain is assumed to be restricted by rigid lid boundary conditions, both at the upper and lower limit. Therefore, the interfacial waves motion can be explained in a hamiltonian formulation. In the hamiltonian formulation, total energy is defined as the sum of kinetic and potential energy. The hamiltonian system is obtained from reduction of kinetic energy by using the Dirichlet Neumann Operator. The resulted kinetic energy equation is nonlinear. Therefore, this form is linearized by first part of the Taylor expansion. This linearization gives a dispersion relation of linear wave. Based on this dispersion relation, the phase speed of the linear wave depends on the density ratio of the two layers fluid.
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