Judul: Forecasting of Indonesian Food Consumption 2020-2030
Abstrak: Penelitian ini bertujuan melakukan forecasting kepada kelompok pangan berdasarkan Pola pangan harapan dengan metode simple moving average pada tahun 2020-2030. Hasil forecasting didapatkan konsumsi pangan pada tahun 2030 meningkatan dengan rincian kelompok pangan serealia untuk beras, jagung dan terigu sebesar 30,91 juta ton, 510 ribu ton dan 5,04 juta ton. Kelompok umbi-umbian untuk singkong, ubi jalar, kentang, sagu dan umbi lainnya masing-masing sebesar 3,16 juta ton, 1,2 juta ton, 800 ribu ton, 130 ribu ton dan 220 ribu ton. Konsumsi pangan hewani yaitu daging ruminansia, daging unggas, telur, susu dan ikan beturut-turut sejumlah 1,23 juta ton, 2,35 juta ton, 2,36 juta ton, 890 ribu ton dan 6,88 juta ton. Konsumsi minyak sawit dan minyak kelapa sebesar 2,95 juta ton dan 220 ribu ton. Buah dan biji berminyak yaitu kelapa dan kemiri sebesar 540 ribu ton dan 100 ribu ton. Kelompok pangan kacang-kacangan yaitu kedelai, kacang tanah dan kacang hijau masing-masing mencapai 2,84 juta ton, 100 ribu ton dan 110 ribu ton, sedangkan untuk kacang lainnya mencapai angka 40 ribu ton. Konsumsi gula diproyeksikan meningkat menjadi 2,63 juta ton untuk gula pasir dan 250 ribu ton untuk gula merah. Konsumsi sayur-sayuran mencapai 17,48 juta ton dan buah-buahan mecapai 10,83 juta ton., This study aimed to forecast food consumption for 2020-2030 in terms of food groups based on Desirable Dietary Pattern using the simple moving average method. As the results of forecasting, need for consumption of cereals in 2030 will be increase up to 30,91 million tons for rice, 510 thousand tons for corn, and 5,04 million tons for wheat flour. Tubers covering cassava, sweet potatoes, potatoes, sago, and other tubers will be 3,16 million tons, 1,2 million tons, 800 thousand tons, 130 thousand tons, and 220 thousand tons, respectively. Animal food consumption needs on ruminant meat, poultry meat, eggs, milk, and fish will reach 1,23 million tons, 2,35 million tons, 2,36 million tons, 890 thousand tons, and 6,88 million tons, respectively. Palm oil and coconut oil will reach 2,95 million tons and 220 thousand tons. In group of oily fruits and seeds, coconuts are 540 thousand tons, while pecans are 100 thousand tons. Legumes such as soybeans, peanuts, and green beans will reach 2,84 million tons, 100 thousand tons, and 110 thousand tons, respectively, while other legumes will reach 40 thousand tons. Sugar consumption was also projected to increase up to 2,63 million tons for refined sugar and 250 thousand tons for palm sugar. Vegetable consumption needs will reach 17,48 million tons, while fruits will reach 10,83 million tons.
Keyword: forecasting, kebijakan pangan, kelompok pangan, pola pangan harapan, simple moving average

Judul: TinjauandanProyeksiHargaKomoditasPokokPanganIndonesia
Abstrak: Sufficiency of food needs for human is important because it relates to the rights of citizens and human rights. The process of production ,distribution, and consumption is strongly influenced by domestic food prices. The contribution of food prices to the inflation in Indonesia is 79,61% (Statistic Center, 2013). Fluctuations in food prices is related to biological structure of commodities and agricultural environments, time lags in decision making related to the use of inputs until sell output, market structure, and policy impact. Information of food prices can be accessed to the State Logistics Agency (Bulog), Department of Trade and Industry (Disperindag), and Statistic Center (BPS). Standardization of daily food prices report made by Ministry of Trade Indonesia through Minister Decision No.522/MPP/Kep/11/1998. This regulations do not specifically regulate the location, the quality of the commodity, and commodity branded and non-branded. this problem cause food prices data among government agencies and private companies different each other. Research on food prices fluctuation and data synergize between government agencies and private companies is important to predict the price and formulating the optimal policy in the future .Every commodities in Indonesia has different characteristics of data, average mean value, and the pattern. Therefore , the best forecasting method for one commodity not always be the best method for another commodity . Based on these problems, the objective of this study are: 1) Analyze the development of Indonesian food prices; 2) Identify synergy prices between State Logistics Agency (Bulog), Department of Industry and Trade (Disperindag) , the Statistic Center (BPS) , and results of the survey in each region; 3) Getting the best forecasting method to forecast the price of basic food commodities in Indonesia ; 4 ) Forecast the price of food commodities of Indonesia in the future . The results showed that there are 7 commodities which have increasing price significantly. Those commodities are cassava (65,44%), onions (87,50%), red chili (70,39%), beef (41,45%), eggs (33,98%) , salted fish (29,06%) and instant noodles (30,68%). Some other commodities have decreasing price. Those commodities are green beans (4,3%) , Filma cooking oil (0,80%) , and Minyakita cooking oil (5,81%). The difference between the price data from Bulog , BPS , Disperindag , and survey results up to Rp 10.177/kg for the same commodity at the same time. There are 4 best methods for forecasting Indonesian food prices. Those methods are Multiplicative winters, additive winters, quadratic trend, multiplicative decomposition, and ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average). Forecasting results indicate that Onion will contribute strongly effect to inflation.
Keyword: time series analysis, the synergy of data, basic food commodities

Judul: Hamiltonian formulation for linear waves motion in two layers fluid
Abstrak: The surface wave could be considered as a wave that separates two fluids, namely water and air. Based on this assumption, it is introduced the interfacial wave, a wave between two layers of fluid with different density. The formulation of interfacial waves motion begins with deriving the base equation of irrotational ideal fluid. Furthermore, according to irrotational fluid assumption, the base equation can be stated in velocity potential. In this derivation, the fluids domain is assumed to be restricted by rigid lid boundary conditions, both at the upper and lower limit. Therefore, the interfacial waves motion can be explained in a hamiltonian formulation. In the hamiltonian formulation, total energy is defined as the sum of kinetic and potential energy. The hamiltonian system is obtained from reduction of kinetic energy by using the Dirichlet Neumann Operator. The resulted kinetic energy equation is nonlinear. Therefore, this form is linearized by first part of the Taylor expansion. This linearization gives a dispersion relation of linear wave. Based on this dispersion relation, the phase speed of the linear wave depends on the density ratio of the two layers fluid.
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