Judul: Analisis Intervensi Melemahnya Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap Volume Ekspor
Abstrak: Export is an important economic activity to generate foreign exchange for the country, expanding market of products, and expanding employment opportunities for the community. The volume of export is affected by the exchange rate of Indonesia Rupiah and the foreign currency especially the US dollar. In this thesis the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model is used in forecasting time series data. Generally, the function of the intervention consists of two types, i.e the step function which is used to study a long-term intervention and the pulse function is used to study short-term interventions. The purpose of this research is to obtain a model of intervention of export volume which will be used to make a prediction for the next few months. The results of the intervention model obtained in this work was found to be good enough to model export data. This is indicated by the small value of the MAPE.
Keyword: Bogor Agricultural University (IPB), step function, forecasting, intervention models, ARIMA

Judul: Analisis perkembangan dan peramalan ekspor pertanian Indonesia tahun 1990 - 2000
Abstrak: Ekspor diperlukan untuk menghasilkan devisa, menumbuhkan sektor produksi dalam negeri terutama yang berorientasi ekspor, dan penyerapan tenaga kerja. Peran ekspor non migas bagi Indonesia menunjukkan peningkatan yang makin penting, terutama setelah anjlognya harga minyak mentah di perdagangan dunia tahun 1981 yang berakibat pada terjadinya resesi dunia yang berkepanjangan. Bagi Indonesia, dampak ketidakstabilan harga minyak di pasar internasional mesti ditanggapi dengan alternatif baru yaitu pendayagunaan komoditi-komoditi lain yang lebih marketable di luar migas. Pertanian sebagai salah satu sektor non migas, mempunyai peranan yang penting mengingat negara Indonesia adalah negara agraris, yang sebagian dari kita sangat tergantung pada pertanian. Perkembangan ekspor pertanian Indonesia selama kurun waktu 11 tahun, yaitu dari tahun 1990- 2000, berfluktuasi. Pada periode 1990-1997 cenderung naik terus, dengan rata-rata pertumbuhan sebesar 11 persen setiap tahunnya, kemudian menurun pada tahun 1998, dan naik lagi pada tahun 1999. Secara umum, rata-rata pertumbuhan ekspor pertanian sebesar 6,8 % setiap tahunnya. Sementara rata-rata persentase ekspor pertanian terhadap ekspor non migas sebesar 40,94 %, sedangkan terhadap total ekspor adalah sebesar 29,7 %. Untuk keperluan analisis deret waktu, data akan dipisah menjadi dua bagian, yaitu Januari 1990- Desember 1997 dan Januari 1998-Desember 2000. Akan dicobakan beberapa model/pemulusan, diantaranya tren linier, dekomposisi aditif, Winters aditif, dan model ARIMA. Baik untuk data 1990-1997 maupun data 1998-2000, metode yang terbaik adalah dekomposisi aditif, karena menghasilkan MAPE yang paling kecil dan sisaanya bebas. Untuk peramalan ekspor pertanian Indonesia tahun 2001, sebaiknya dipakai model dengan menggunakan data 1998-2000, karena tidak ada gunanya menggunakan data tahun 1990-1997, dikarenakan antara 1990-1997 dan 1998-2000 pola datanya berubah/tidak berkesinambungan.
Keyword: model tren, dekomposisi, metode winters, model ARIMA

Judul: Hybrid solar cells of ZnO nanoparticles/chlorophyll was modified metal ions (Zn2+ and Cu2+ )
Abstrak: Zinc Oxide (ZnO) is a n-type semiconductor with a wide the energy band (Band Gap) is 3.37 eV at room temperature and 3.34 eV at low temperature with a large exiton binding energy is 60 meV. ZnO has been synthesized by hydrothermal method, resulting in a decrease in particle size over the duration of the hydrothermal changes. Crystallographic structure of ZnO were characterized using XRD, has shown the characteristic pattern of a hexagonal wurtzite structure, the crystallite size increases to changes in particle size. Changes in particle size has also led to a change in the absorption peak of ZnO as has been demonstrated posted under test using the optical properties of UV-Vis spectrophotometer. Changes of this uptake has also led to changes in the energy band gap, which increases its band gap energy of the particle size. In electronic applications, especially in solar cells. Chlorophyll is considered less effective, because of their very nature are easily degraded as a result of several reactions which are acid, lighting and temperature. The results of the stability test using a halogen lamp 34 W/m2 for 5 hours, that the substitution of chlorophyll with metal ions Zn2+ and Cu2+ has been shown to form more stable than natural chlorophyll. The characterization of the optical properties, the combination of ZnO / chlorophyll in the form of hybrid films has led to a shift in the absorption region of ZnO becomes more widely from the UV to Visible. ZnO/chlorophyll has absorption range of 350-515 nm, ZnO / Zn-feofitin 332-401 nm and 332-632 nm for Cu-feofitin. The combination of ZnO/chlorophyll and CuSCN as a solid electrolite in hybrid solar cell, a modified chlorophyll with metal ions Zn2+ and Cu2+ has been shown to form a more stable I-V curve. It is characterized by its fill factor value greater than natural chlorophyll. Nevertheless, solar cells with natural chlorophyll has been able to produce higher efficiency values of chlorophyll were substituted.
Keyword: Hydrothermal, ZnO/Chlorophyll modified, Hybrid Solar Cell