Judul: Estimation of Ruin Probability with Total Claims are Discrete Random Variables Using R
Abstrak: Peluang pailit adalah peluang ketika proses surplus bernilai negatif. Peluang pailit dapat menjadi salah satu bahan pertimbangan untuk menyusun strategi keuangan sebuah perusahaan. Pendugaan peluang pailit perusahaan asuransi dalam penelitian ini dilakukan dengan menggunakan asumsi besar total premi konstan untuk setiap tahunnya dan total klaim menyebar diskret. Peluang pailit diperoleh dengan menjumlahkan semua peluang kejadian surplus yang bernilai negatif. Untuk efisiensi, penghitungan dilakukan dengan bantuan bahasa pemrograman R. Hasil pengolahan data menunjukkan bahwa banyaknya kemungkinan klaim dan besar modal awal yang digunakan memengaruhi besar peluang pailit, yaitu semakin banyak kemungkinan klaim yang dipakai, maka semakin kecil peluang pailit yang dimiliki dan semakin besar nilai modal awal yang digunakan, maka semakin kecil peluang pailit yang diperoleh., Ruin probability is the probability when the surplus process has a negative value. Ruin probability can be one of the tools considered when developing a company's financial strategy. This research aims to estimate the ruin probability of an insurance company with the assumption that the total premium earned is constant for each year and that total claims are discrete random variables. This research also attempts to solve this problem by calculating the ruin probability of an insurance company using the R programming language which can shorten the data processing time. The result shows that the number of possible claims and the amount of initial capital used influence the value of ruin probability, where the more possible claims used, the smaller the ruin probability, and the greater the value of the initial capital used, the smaller the ruin probability.
Keyword: R, peluang pailit, sebaran diskret, total klaim

Judul: Estimation of Ruin Probability Using Fuzzy Interest Rate
Abstrak: Setiap bidang usaha memiliki peluang pailit. Pada perusahaan asuransi, pailit terjadi ketika proses surplus bernilai negatif. Penelitian ini menduga nilai peluang pailit perusahaan asuransi ketika tingkat bunga yang digunakan merupakan bilangan triangular fuzzy dengan asumsi besar total premi yang diperoleh konstan untuk setiap tahunnya dan total klaim merupakan peubah acak diskret berhingga. Peluang pailit diperoleh dengan menjumlahkan semua peluang kejadian proses surplus yang bernilai negatif. Penggunaan bilangan fuzzy pada tingkat bunga menyebabkan keuntungan investasi dan proses surplus berbentuk interval. Peluang pailit menggunakan tingkat bunga bilangan fuzzy diperoleh dengan menjumlahkan semua peluang kejadian proses surplus yang memiliki batas bawah interval bernilai negatif. Penggunaan tingkat bunga bilangan fuzzy menyebabkan hasil pendugaan peluang pailit lebih presisi. Nilai peluang pailit juga dipengaruhi oleh besar surplus awal, total klaim dan besar peluang total klaim. Semakin kecil peluang nilai total klaim terbesar, semakin kecil pula nilai peluang pailit. Semakin kecil nilai surplus awal, semakin besar peluang pailit yang diperoleh., Every business field has ruin probability. In insurance company, ruin occurs when the surplus process is negative. This study tries to estimate ruin probability of insurance company when the interest rate used is a triangular fuzzy number with the assumption that the total of premium earned is constant for each year and the total claims are finite discrete random variables. The ruin probability is obtained by adding up all the probabilities for the occurrence of the surplus process to be negative. The use of fuzzy interest rate causes investment profits and surplus processes to take the form of intervals. The ruin probability using fuzzy interest rate is obtained by adding up all the probabilities of the surplus process events that have a negative lower limit interval. The use of fuzzy interest rate causes the result of the estimation of ruin probability to be more precise. The ruin probability also depends on initial surplus, total claims, and probabilities of total claims. The smaller the probability of the largest total claim, the smaller the ruin probability. The smaller the initial surplus value, the greater the ruin probability obtained.
Keyword: fuzzy interest rate, ruin probability, triangular fuzzy number

Judul: Morfologi Esofagus dan Lambung Burung Serak Jawa (Tyto alba)
Abstrak: This study was aimed to describe the morphology of esophagus and stomach of barn owl (Tyto alba). Two barn owl (T. alba) were used to observed macroscopic and microscopically. The macroscopic observation was done by observing the shape and size of the esophagus and stomach. The microscopic observation was done using standard histological method with hematoksilin eosin (HE) staining. The results showed that the esophagus consist of pars cervicalis and pars thoracalis, was 9.8 centimeters in length, and possessed no crop. Mucosa of the esophagus pars cervicalis was lined with nonkeratinized stratified squamous epithelial cell, and the pars thoracalis lined by simple columnar epithelial cell. The esophageal gland was mucous type distributed in a lot number along the mucosa. The external muscle consists of two layers, which were the inner longitudinal muscle and outer circular muscle. The stomach could be distinguished into proventriculus and ventriculus (gizzard). Proventriculus was a cone shape and gizzard was cuboid with an average length of the greater curvature was 6.5 cm and was 1.88 cm in diameter. The mucosa of proventriculus was lined by simple columnar epithelium. The proventricular gland was consist of superficial and profundal glands. The superficial gland produced mucous, while the profundal produced pepsinogen and hydrochloric acid (HCl). The external muscle layer consist of three layers, two longitudinal muscles in the superficial and profundal layers and circular muscle in the middle between the two of longitudinal muscles. The mucosa of gizzard was lined with simple columnar epithelial cell, with the thin cuticle. The gizzard glands consist of simple tubular gland that produced mucous. The gizzard has two very thick muscle layers composed by inner longitudinal muscle and the outer circular muscle. The characteristic morphology of the esophagus and stomach of barn owl (T. alba), was presumed to supports their behavior, which swallow a whole body of their prey.
Keyword: Bogor Agricultural University (IPB), Tyto alba, proventriculus, esophagus, gizzard