Judul: Pemodelan Besar Klaim Asuransi Kendaraan Bermotor Menggunakan Model Eksponensial Hidden Markov
Abstrak: Asuransi atau pertanggungan adalah suatu perjanjian, di mana seorang penanggung mengikatkan diri kepada seorang tertanggung, dengan menerima suatu premi untuk memberikan penggantian kepadanya karena suatu kerugian, kerusakan, atau kehilangan keuntungan yang diharapkan, yang mungkin terjadi karena suatu peristiwa tak tentu. Salah satu jenis dari asuransi kerugian yaitu asuransi kendaraan bermotor. Asuransi kendaraan bermotor adalah salah satu perlindungan pada kendaraan jika terjadi kerusakan atau kerugian, misalnya karena kecelakaan atau hal lainnya yang menyebabkan kerugian terhadap kendaraan. Besarnya klaim yang harus dibayar pada asuransi kendaraan bermotor, bergantung pada besarnya kerugian. Jika penyebab kerugian diasumsikan membentuk rantai Markov dan tidak diamati secara langsung, dan hanya data besar klaim yang diamati maka pasangan besar klaim dan penyebabnya dapat dimodelkan dengan model hidden Markov. Karena besar klaim jika diketahui penyebabnya diasumsikan menyebar eksponensial maka digunakan model eksponensial hidden Markov. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk memodelkan besar klaim asuransi kendaraan bermotor dengan menggunakan model eksponensial hidden Markov dan menggunakan model eksponensial hidden Markov untuk prediksi besar klaim di masa yang akan datang. ...
Keyword: asuransi kendaraan bermotor, algoritme Expectation Maximization, Bayessian Information Criterion, prediksi

Judul: Pemodelan Klaim Asuransi Kesehatan Menggunakan Hidden Markov Kontinu
Abstrak: Salah satu tahapan penting yang harus dilakukan perusahaan asuransi agar terhindar dari kerugian akibat risiko klaim yaitu dengan memodelkan data klaim. Pada asuransi kesehatan, ukuran risiko klaim memerlukan status kondisi kesehatan pasien yang tidak selalu teramati. Jika kondisi kesehatan pasien yang memengaruhi biaya perawatan rumah sakit diasumsikan tidak teramati secara langsung dan membentuk rantai Markov, maka pasangan kondisi kesehatan pasien dan biaya perawatan rumah sakit dapat dimodelkan menggunakan model hidden Markov. Pada tugas akhir ini dilakukan pemodelan klaim asuransi kesehatan untuk memprediksi klaim perawatan jalan di masa depan. Dari hasil perhitungan, model HMM terbaik pada pemodelan klaim asuransi kesehatan dengan data rataan mingguan untuk rata-rata total biaya rawat jalan per orang per hari terdiri atas empat state yang masing-masing state menyebar lognormal dengan parameter berbeda. Hasil pembangkitan data menggunakan model terbaik memberikan nilai prediksi yang tergolong sangat akurat untuk sepuluh minggu ke depan dengan nilai MAPE sebesar delapan persen., One of the important steps that insurance companies must take to avoid losses due to claim risk is modeling claim data. In health insurance, the measure of claim risk requires the patient's health condition status, which is not always observed. If it is assumed that the patient's health condition that affects hospital care costs is not directly observable and forms a Markov chain, then the patient's health condition and hospital care cost pair can be modelled using the hidden Markov model. In this final project, claim modeling is carried out to predict future claims. From the calculation results, the best model in modelling health insurance claims using weekly average data from average total outpatient costs per person per day consists of four states that are lognormally distributed with different parameters for each state. The results of data generation using the best model provide predictive values that are classified as very accurate for the next ten weeks with a MAPE value of eight percent.
Keyword: claim modelling, health insurance, hidden Markov model

Judul: Utilization of hydrolized duckweed (Lemna minor) meal as a soybean replacement in Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) diet,
Abstrak: Tilapia is a fast growing fish widely cultured in many tropical and sub tropical countries. The recent production figures reported our global production estimates for 2015 is 5,576.8 metric tons. In developing countries the major challenges facing aquaculture industry is high cost of production associated with fish feeds. Feed represents 40-70% of operating costs for aquaculture operations, increasing expenses and potential declining supplies soybean meal have led scientists to search for less expensive but compatible alternative protein sources for fish feed; most of which are based on animal or plant protein sources. The objectives of study was to determine the incubation period for hydrolysis of duckweed and to evaluate the use of hydrolized duckweed as aprotein source for the growth performance of Nile tilapia Three experiments were conducted to determine the composition and digestibility of hydrolyzed duckweed meal by sheep rumen liquor as the replacement of soybean meal in the diet of Nile tilapia. The first trial examined the effectivity of sheep rumen liquor enzyme to decrease crude fiber contents of (DWM), the added volume of sheep rumen liquor was 100 ml/kg DWM and then it was incubated for 0, 12, 24 hr . The second trial was to evaluate the apparent digestibility of hydrolyzed DWM for Nile Tilapia, apparent digestibility were determined using chromic oxide indicator added to both reference diet and test diets. The feed ingredients used in the trial were hydrolyzed DWM (HDWM) and unhydrolyzed DWM (DWM). Ten fish with an average weight of 18±0.36g were used in the trial and reared in the aquarium of size 30×40×50cm for 15 days; feces were collected from three replicates using a fecal collection column attached to the aquarium. Third trial was to evaluate the growth performance of Tilapia fed test diet with hydrolyzed Duckweed meal (HDWM). The experimental design was set according to completely randomized design with four treatments and three replicates of HDWM inclusion levels that is 0%, 15%, 30% and 45%. Nile tilapia fish with initial body weight of 18±0.36g was kept in 12 units aquarium size of 30×40×50cm at stocking density of 10fish/aquarium, the fish were fed two times a day at 08:00am and 16:00pm to apparent satiation for a period of 60 days. The results indicated that duckweed meal (DWM) hydrolyzed with 100 mL/kg and incubated for 24 hrs showed the lowest crude fiber contents of 13.68% compared to other treatments. Total digestibility of hydrolyzed duckweed (HDWM) meal was 87.3% compared with unhydrolyzed duckweed (DWM) which was 66.8%. Total final weight (TFW), survival rate (SR), specific growth rate (SGR), feed conversional rate (FCR) and protein retention (PR) shows growth performance at 15% inclusion. The results of this study showed that 100mL/kg sheep rumen liquor at incubation period of 24 hr can be suitable for hydrolysis of duckweed to reduce crude fiber also hydrolyzed duckweed can substitute soybean meal at an incubation rate of 15% in the diet of Nile tilapia and had the same growth and FCR with control diet
Keyword: Digestibility, Duckweed meal, Growth performance, Sheep rumen