Judul: Analisis Fluktuasi Harga Komoditas Pangan dan Pengaruhnya terhadap Inflasi di Jawa Barat
Abstrak: West Java is the most populous province in Indonesia. That large population need the availability of sufficient food to achieve food price stability. Based on data from BPS Jawa Barat (2013), the contribution of food inflation to general inflation in West Java is the largest, in 2011 reached 0.93% and in 2012 reached 1.43%. Therefore, the price of food is an important issue in West Java. This study analyzes the prices of three main food commodities, namely rice, soybeans, and sugar. The data used are monthly time series data from January 2009 to December 2012. The objectives of this study are: 1) to describe the development of food commodity prices in West Java using descriptive analysis; 2) to analyze trends in food commodity prices in the future in West Java using ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) method and; 3) to analyze the effects of food commodity price fluctuations on inflation in West Java using VAR (Vector Autoregression) model. The results of descriptive analysis show that in 2009-2012 the price of rice, soybeans, and sugar have an upward trend. Trend analysis of food commodity price shows that during the next twelve period (in 2013), the price of rice and soybeans are likely to increase while the price of sugar fluctuates with the price difference relatively small. The IRF (Impulse Response Functions) analysis shows that in the long term, the response of Consumer Price Index (CPI) of West Java towards shocks in food commodity prices continues to increase. The FEVD (Forecast Error Variance Decomposition) analysis shows that the price of sugar contributes the most in explaining the variability of inflation in West Java, followed by rice, and soybean prices.
Keyword: VAR, inflation, food commodity price, ARIMA

Judul: Analysis of National Strategic Food Price Volatility and Its Effect on Inflation
Abstrak: Pangan merupakan kebutuhan primer yang harus terjaga stabilitas harganya. Beberapa periode terakhir harga sejumlah komoditas pangan strategis mengalami peningkatan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis tingkat volatilitas harga minyak goreng, beras, cabai merah, bawang merah dan bawang putih serta pengaruhnya terhadap inflasi. Data yang digunakan adalah data harga kelima komoditas yang diperoleh dari Pusat Informasi Harga Pangan Strategis dan data inflasi diperoleh dari Bank Indonesia. Analisis yang dilakukan yakni Coefficient of Variation untuk melihat disparitas harga di seluruh provinsi di Indonesia dan pemodelan ARCH-GARCH untuk menganalisis volatilitas. Error Correction Model digunakan untuk menganalisis pengaruh volatilitas harga pangan terhadap inflasi. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan terdapat disparitas harga pangan antar waktu dan antar wilayah di Indonesia. Volatilitas harga kelima komoditas terjadi pada data harga tingkat nasional dan pada sejumlah wilayah amatan. Volatilitas harga minyak goreng serta beras berpengaruh signifkan terhadap inflasi pada jangka panjang. Sementara pada jangka pendek, volatilitas harga cabai merah dan volatilitas bawang merah bulan sebelumnya signifikan mempengaruhi tingkat inflasi, Food is a primary necessity that requires accessibility and price stability. In recent periods, the prices of some strategic food commodities have increased. The aim of this research is to analyze the level of price volatility of cooking oil, rice, red chili, shallots, and garlic, as well as their effect on inflation. The data used include the prices of these five commodities obtained from the Strategic Food Price Information Center and the inflation rate data obtained from the Bank of Indonesia. The analysis conducted includes the Coefficient of Variation to observe price disparities across all provinces in Indonesia and the ARCH-GARCH modeling to analyze volatility. The Error Correction Model is used to analyze the effect of food price volatility on inflation. The results show that price disparities occurs over time and across regions in Indonesia. Volatility in the prices of these five commodities occurs both at the national price level and in some observed regions. The price volatility of cooking oil and rice has a significant long-term effect on inflation. Meanwhile, in the short term, price volatility of red chili and shallots from the previous month have a significant effect on the inflation rate.
Keyword: ARCH-GARH, ECM, inflasi, pangan, volatilitas

Judul: Hybrid solar cells of ZnO nanoparticles/chlorophyll was modified metal ions (Zn2+ and Cu2+ )
Abstrak: Zinc Oxide (ZnO) is a n-type semiconductor with a wide the energy band (Band Gap) is 3.37 eV at room temperature and 3.34 eV at low temperature with a large exiton binding energy is 60 meV. ZnO has been synthesized by hydrothermal method, resulting in a decrease in particle size over the duration of the hydrothermal changes. Crystallographic structure of ZnO were characterized using XRD, has shown the characteristic pattern of a hexagonal wurtzite structure, the crystallite size increases to changes in particle size. Changes in particle size has also led to a change in the absorption peak of ZnO as has been demonstrated posted under test using the optical properties of UV-Vis spectrophotometer. Changes of this uptake has also led to changes in the energy band gap, which increases its band gap energy of the particle size. In electronic applications, especially in solar cells. Chlorophyll is considered less effective, because of their very nature are easily degraded as a result of several reactions which are acid, lighting and temperature. The results of the stability test using a halogen lamp 34 W/m2 for 5 hours, that the substitution of chlorophyll with metal ions Zn2+ and Cu2+ has been shown to form more stable than natural chlorophyll. The characterization of the optical properties, the combination of ZnO / chlorophyll in the form of hybrid films has led to a shift in the absorption region of ZnO becomes more widely from the UV to Visible. ZnO/chlorophyll has absorption range of 350-515 nm, ZnO / Zn-feofitin 332-401 nm and 332-632 nm for Cu-feofitin. The combination of ZnO/chlorophyll and CuSCN as a solid electrolite in hybrid solar cell, a modified chlorophyll with metal ions Zn2+ and Cu2+ has been shown to form a more stable I-V curve. It is characterized by its fill factor value greater than natural chlorophyll. Nevertheless, solar cells with natural chlorophyll has been able to produce higher efficiency values of chlorophyll were substituted.
Keyword: Hydrothermal, ZnO/Chlorophyll modified, Hybrid Solar Cell