Judul: Hubungan Keaslian Kampunga Naga dengan Pembentukan Identitas Masyarakat Adat
Abstrak: The Indigenous villages sustainability had been one major issue within this modern era, The Kampung Naga is one of the traditional village which still keeps the originality of it is culture and tradition. That originality had been made to be the main asset for it is community to keep hold and establish the identity of the community. The main purpose of this research is to describe the individual characteristic of the people at kampong Naga, analyzing each individual characteristic with the culture and tradition that they still keep until today and how it influences the identity of the Dragon village. This research is done by conducting the survey method. The result of this research is that the characteristic of the custom community (age, occupation and gender) are related to the observance of the custom tradition as well as how each personality, socially and collectively formed. While their engagement with the custom is related in forming the collective identity
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Judul: Studi Potensi Kampung Naga sebagai Sebuah Ecovillage
Abstrak: Kampung Naga as known as a village that always maintain the inheritance traditions of their ancestors. Although, Kampung Naga has categorized as traditional community that always maintain their inheritance traditions, they are not static and primitive community. It can be a potential to demonstrate ecovillage concept application in Kampung Naga. That concept purposed to conserve the landscape as traditional village and to support the sustainability. To find out the characteristic of traditional landscape of Kampung Naga was conducted obsevation and literature. The method that used to find out the Kampung Naga’s ecovillage potensial is probability analysis with Kappa coefficient. The method that used to find out the level of community sustainability is Community Sustainability Assessment (CSA) from GEN (Global Ecovillage Network). Based on the analysis result, Kampung Naga is very potential for application of ecovillage concept and the level of the application is indicate a good start toward sustainability. The recommendation for sustainability is maximize the potential of ecovillage concept that has been applicated and used the legal aspect to maintain the sustainability of the village.
Keyword: Kampung Naga, ecovillage model, community sustainability

Judul: Model Peramalan Harga Minyak Mentah OPEC Menggunakan ARIMA melalui Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition
Abstrak: Harga minyak mentah dunia mengalami fluktuasi setiap harinya. Salah satu sumber minyak mentah yang diperdagangkan pada skala internasional yaitu minyak dari negara-negara pengekspor minyak mentah dunia yang tergabung dalam Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Sekitar empat puluh persen dari total produksi minyak dunia merupakan produksi OPEC. Hal tersebut menjadikan peramalan harga minyak mentah OPEC sangat dibutuhkan untuk menjaga keseimbangan pasar minyak dunia. Data harga minyak yang fluktuatif dibuat lebih sederhana dan mudah diinterpretasikan dengan cara menerapkan metode Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD). Metode EEMD menguraikan data menjadi sejumlah Intrinsic Mode Function (IMF) dan sisaan IMF. Pada penelitian ini dibandingkan model peramalan ARIMA dengan menggunakan data asli dan hasil dekomposisi berupa komponen IMF dan sisaan IMF. Perbandingan kedua metode dilihat berdasarkan keseluruhan dan rata-rata nilai MAPE hasil peramalan pada lima rentang waktu. Metode EEMD-ARIMA memiliki rata-rata nilai MAPE sebesar 9,09% dan simpangan baku nilai MAPE sebesar 7,39%. Peramalan harga minyak mentah OPEC pada bulan Januari-Agustus 2021 berkisar antara 42,22 sampai 60,6 US dollar per barel. Hasil akhir analisis pada penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa metode ARIMA dengan data dekomposisi (EEMD-ARIMA) lebih baik dibandingkan metode ARIMA menggunakan data asli., World crude oil prices fluctuate every day. One source of crude oil traded is oil from crude oil exporting countries that are members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). In the total of 40% of world crude oil is produced by OPEC. This makes forecasting the price of crude oil OPEC’s policy very necessary in order to maintain world oil market stability. Fluctuating oil price data is made simpler and easier to interpret by applying the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) method. The EEMD method decomposes the data into a number of Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMF) and residual of the IMF. In this study, the ARIMA forecasting model is compared using the original data and the decomposition results in the form of IMF components and IMF residuals. The comparison of the two methods is seen based on the overall and average MAPE value of the forecasting results in five time ranges. The EEMD-ARIMA method has an average MAPE value of 9.09% and standard deviation MAPE value of 7.39%. OPEC crude oil price forecast in January-August 2021 ranges from 42.22 to 60.6 USD per barrel. The final result of the analysis in this study shows that the ARIMA method with decomposition data (EEMD-ARIMA) is better than the ARIMA method using original data.
Keyword: ARIMA, EEMD, EMD, forecast, OPEC crude oil price