Judul: Rancang Bangun Sistem Pakar Manajemen Risiko Untuk Perencanaan Agroindustri Rumput Laut
Abstrak: The seaweed agroindustry performance is depend on quantity and quality of its raw material. Beside that, processing technology, marketing, and financial problem give influence to its achievment. Since those factors contains potential risk, there is need to identify and manage those factors trough risk management. The main aim of this study is to design expert system of risk management for seaweed agro industry planning. The scope of the research object is a small and medium enterprises (SMEs). The case study was done at PT Madura Prima Interna, East Java, which produce semi refined carrageenan for exports. The development of this expert system is composed by 6 activities which are knowledge acquisition through expert survey, knowledge conceptualization, knowledge representation., inference mechanism, computer programming, implementation and evaluation (Liebowitz, 1998). Method used for risk analysis and consultation of risk controlling was protocol method, using if-then formulation. In the case of choosing the criterion, we used Method of Exponential Comparison (MPE). In doing forecasting, is used time serried analysis method. Financial feasibility was analyzed using variables IRR B/C ratio, BEP, PBP and NPV. Knowledge acquisition was attained from 6 experts in business and professional with seaweed industry. The result of this knowledge acquisition was risk management factors in the seaweed agro industry, impact and risk possibility, and risk control. SeaWeed-Risk 1.0 was designed by using Borland Delphi 7.0 programming language. The knowledge representation of the acquisition was done with if-then production scheme. Control mechanism used backward chaining control strategy, while detection strategy used depth-first search. Model base management system is composed of selection for cultivation location, selection for pre-eminent product, risk analysis, risk management consultation, cultivation technology consultation, product quality consultation, and financial feasibility. Verification result of financial analysis with investment Rp. 24,310,953,724,- and capcity of production 756 tons/year are IRR 42%; NPV Rp. 15,167,878,918; PBP 2 years and 10 months; BEP 1,206.40 ton; and B/C Ratio 1.64. Consultation model possess input in the form of user's answer on factor or condition which was asked followed with certainty level of the mentioned condition. The output of the model is various risk diagnose and consultation result which were provided with certainty level. Consultation with this model may improve the effectiveness and quality in the decision making process in risk mamagement. There is a need for routine updating parameter of raw material supply, marketing, and processing technology modification in order for adjustment to development in seaweed agro industry. Design addition was proposed to accommodate other marine product and internet application to be more user friendly.
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Judul: Design of risk management model on pepper agroindustrial investment
Abstrak: The spectrum of investment instruments will provide different degree of uncertainty. This is influenced by the level of risk faced. Analysis of investment performance then need an analysis that integrates the aspects of return and risk within a framework of analysis. The competitiveness of pepper industry, which can be expressed in the achievement of quality, market share, profitability and sustainability, is still low. Pepper agroindustrial is integrated with farming systems and conducted on a small scale and traditional approach. The decisions on mechanical pepper agroindustrial and its investment on value chain are very limited. It has typically been driven by practical factors such as risk. The objective of this paper is to propose a comprehensive method in risk analysis, risk management design, and risk based financial analysis as a model of decision support systems. The methods of this research are Fuzzy Logic, FMEA, Vulnerability Analysis which expressed in Radar Chart, Analytical Hierarchy Process, and Cash Flow Analysis. On the other hand, fuzzy weighting approach on expert and risk compenent is one method that can improve risk assessment. This study provides an analysis tool that integrates financial and risk analysis in a framework, risk management models, and support facility analysis, which is integrated in Decision Support System called SMART INVEST. It consists of data based management system, model based management system, integrated analysis, and user interface. The model provides integrated risk analysis for pepper commodity system agent, description of financial analysis for investor, and a guideline for government and other stakeholders in the process of providing instrument for risk management. Further analysis of the risk in the form of vulnerability analysis, will provide the basis for determining the support type for the risk management. Application of the model in Bangka showed that the total value of risk was in the high class. Based on risk group, the biggest risk faced by investment on the pepper agroindustrial was the marketing and followed by agriculture, agroindustry, institutional, and financial. The analysis showed that the biggest risks were the price, competition, steam rot disease, cooperation, and dependence between actors. The project generates a surplus of benefits over cost in 202,8 billion IDR. It would be found in this case that the IRR was 45,28%. The benefi cost ratio was 1,95, and the payback period was 3,75 years. If there is no risk management, the risk is expected to effect on the pepper processing services (28,89%), the amount of processed pepper (31,03%), and yield (10,70%). Changes in its variables will consequence in large changes in NPV, IRR, BC ratio, and Pay Back Period. It is therefore necessary to develop risk management system which completed by support facilities.
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Judul: Cycle Hamilton pada Graf Lengkap, Graf Regular, dan Graf 2-Connected 4-Regular Berorder Kurang dari Sepuluh.
Abstrak: Suatu graf disebut graf Hamilton apabila graf tersebut memuat cycle Hamilton, yaitu cycle yang melewati setiap vertex tepat satu kali. Menentukan keberadaan cycle Hamilton pada suatu graf dapat menggunakan syarat cukup yang berupa teorema-teorema yang telah diperkenalkan sejak tahun 1950-an. Beberapa syarat cukup yang dibahas dalam karya ilmiah ini adalah syarat cukup yang berhubungan dengan graf lengkap dan graf regular. ,,,
Keyword: graf Hamilton, graf regular, graf lengkap, graf 2-connected 4-regular.