Judul: The Effect of Non-Tariff Measures on Indonesian Cinnamon Exports to Major Destination Countries
Abstrak: Kebijakan non-tarif yang paling banyak diberlakukan untuk produk pertanian yaitu Sanitary and Phytosanitary dan Technical Barriers to Trade. Indonesia merupakan negara penghasil kayu manis terbesar di dunia, permintaan terhadap rempah-rempah diperkirakan akan terus meningkat sehingga kayu manis menjadi salah satu komoditas pertanian ekspor yang sangat potensial untuk dikembangkan. Kebijakan non-tarif yang diberlakukan oleh negara tujuan perlu diperhatikan karena dapat memengaruhi ekspor kayu manis. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendeskripsikan pemberlakuan kebijakan non-tarif oleh negara tujuan dan menganalisis pengaruh kebijakan non-tarif terhadap ekspor kayu manis Indonesia. Metode yang digunakan pada penelitian ini yaitu metode analisis deskriptif dengan pendekatan Inventory dan analisis regresi data panel tahun 2006-2019 ke sepuluh negara tujuan yaitu Amerika Serikat, Belanda, Vietnam, Brazil, Thailand, India, jerman, Malaysia, Prancis dan Kanada. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa Kanada merupakan negara yang paling banyak menerapkan kebijakan non-tarif terutama kebijakan SPS sebanyak 362 kebijakan, sedangkan kebijakan TBT paling banyak diterapkan oleh Amerika Serikat sebanyak 87 kebijakan. Kebijakan SPS berpengaruh positif terhadap ekspor kayu manis, sedangkan kebijakan TBT berpengaruh negatif. GDP per kapita negara tujuan dan nilai tukar riil berpengaruh positif terhadap ekspor kayu manis, sedangkan harga ekspor kayu manis berpengaruh negatif. Harga impor pala dan populasi negara tujuan tidak berpengaruh terhadap ekspor kayu manis., Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) and Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) are the most commonly used non-tariff measures for agricultural products. Indonesia is the world's largest cinnamon producer, the demand for spices is predicted to continue to rise. Non-tariff measures may have an impact on cinnamon exports. The aim of this study is to describe how destination countries implement non-tariff measures and to analyse the effects of non-tariff measures on Indonesian cinnamon exports. This study used a descriptive analysis method based on the Inventory approach and panel data regression analysis for 10 destination countries: the United States, the Netherlands, Vietnam, Brazil, Thailand, India, Germany, Malaysia, France, and Canada from 2006 to 2019. The results showed that Canada implemented the most non-tariff measures especially the SPS policy with 362 policies, while the TBT policy was mostly implemented by the United States with 87 policies. The SPS policy has a positive effect on cinnamon exports, while the TBT policy has a negative effect. GDP per capita and the real exchange rate have a positive effect, while export prices have a negative effect. The import price of nutmeg and the population of the destination country have no effect on cinnamon exports.
Keyword: Cinnamon, export, non-tariff measures, panel data

Judul: Analysis of Competitiveness and Factors Affecting Indonesian Cinnamon Powder Exports to  Main Destination Countries
Abstrak: Indonesia merupakan negara eksportir terbesar bubuk kayu manis (kode HS 090620) di dunia. Sejak 2012, nilai ekspor bubuk kayu manis Indonesia lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan nilai ekspor kayu manis mentah. Namun nilai ekspor tersebut masih berfluktuatif dan cenderung menurun dibandingkan negara pesaing seperti Vietnam. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis daya saing, cakupan pemberlakuan NTM, dan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi ekspor bubuk kayu manis Indonesia ke 9 negara tujuan utama periode 2011-2020. Metode analisis yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah metode RCA, EPS, X-Model, pendekatan inventory, dan regresi data panel. Metode RCA menunjukkan bahwa bubuk kayu manis Indonesia memiliki daya saing yang kuat di 9 negara tujuan. Metode EPD menunjukkan posisi pasar retreat, falling star, dan rising star. X-Model menunjukkan pengembangan pasar optimis ke Swedia, potensial ke Belanda, Vietnam, Kanada, dan Jerman, sedangkan kurang potensial ke Amerika Serikat, Jerman, Brazil, dan Australia. Hasil regresi data panel menunjukkan harga ekspor, nilai tukar, LPI Indonesia, GDP riil per kapita negara tujuan, dan CR SPS memiliki pengaruh signifikan positif. Sedangkan dummy pandemi Covid-19 dan CR TBT memiliki pengaruh signifikan negatif., Indonesia is the largest exporter of cinnamon powder (HS code 090620) in the world. However, the export value is still fluctuating and tends to decrease compared to competing countries such as Vietnam. This study aims to analyze the competitiveness, scope of application of the NTM, and the factors that influence the export of Indonesian cinnamon powder to 9 main destination countries for the period 2011-2020. The analytical methods used in this research are RCA, EPD, X Model, inventory approach, and panel data regression. The RCA method shows that Indonesian cinnamon powder has strong competitiveness in 9 destination countries. The EPD method shows the retreat, falling star, and rising star market positions. The X-Model shows an optimistic market development to Sweden, potential to the Netherlands, Vietnam, Canada, and Germany, while less potential to the United States, Germany, Brazil, and Australia. The results of panel data regression show that export prices, exchange rates, LPI Indonesia, real GDP per capita of destination countries, and CR SPS have a significant positive effect. Meanwhile, the Covid-19 pandemic dummy and CR TBT had a significant negative effect.
Keyword: bubuk kayu manis, LPI, NTMs, daya saing, EPD, data panel

Judul: Penyelesaian Masalah Rotasi Aliran Fluida Kental Von Karman Menggunakan Metode Homotopi
Abstrak: Von Karman equation is an equation that describes fluid viscous flow induced by infinite disk rotation. By assuming steady flow and laminar, viscous incompressible fluid flow is represented in Von Karman equation by an angular velocity and the vertical direction velocity as the independent variables. Von Karman equation is a nonlinear problem that is solved using the homotopy method. The use of homotopy method is done by defining an homotopy function that requires auxiliary parameters to control the convergent region of the solution. The solution is a recursive formula with given initial conditions. Using software based-functional shows that velocity components converge to a value.
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