Judul: Studi interaksi Fusarium sp. dengan pohon gaharu (Aquilaria sp.) menggunakan pendekatan sitologi
Abstrak: The research is aiming to study the pathogenesis mechanism of Fusarium sp. IPBCC. 08.569 on Aquilaria sp. seedling in respect to the respons of the host towards Fusarium sp. IPBCC. 08.569 infection. Penetration mechanism was determined by observing the appresorium formation on the bark surface in vitro, the potency to produce lignocellulase and toxin. While colonization was studied by histopathological methods using both staining process and SEM. The respons of the tree towards infection was observed at either cellular by histochemestry or organ level using scoring system. Fusarium sp. IPBCC. 08.569 showed no appresorium formation but had lignocellulolytic activity. Hypersensitivity reaction of tobacco leaf towards crude extract of extracellular substance indicated that Fusarium sp. IPBCC. 08.569 produce toxin. Direct penetration into the bark was not found, therefore penetration had to be through wounded area. While modification of hyphae was observed in the living cells of the wood tissue (parenchyma rays, included phloem, and pith) these cells might contain terpenoid as conversion of starch. These cellular changes might be observed as discolored wood and the wood became scented. Discolored wood was extended outside the colonization area, indicated that the dark substance might be part of hypersensitive respons to delimit the infection. Using scoring system, after inoculation Fusarium sp. IPBCC. 08.569 can be stated as wound infection fungi with limited colonization in living tissue and induce terpenoid formation in certain tissue.
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Judul: Karakterisasi interaksi antara tanaman aquilaria microcarpa baill dengan fusarium solani dalam pembentukan gaharu
Abstrak: Aquilaria microcarpa is native to Indonesia and has been identified and promoted as potential tree species to yield high quality agarwood (gaharu). Individual trees of this species, both in its natural habitat and plantation, do not always yield agarwood due to many influencing factors. It is estimated that only 10% trees would be able to yield the resin. A clear mechanism of agarwood formation is unknown and there is a lack of information on underlying causes and triggers of the formation due to natural complexity and uncertainty. However, natural defense mechanisms through a series of pathogenesis are presumed as naturally observed in other resin producing tree species. Research on the characterization of host-pathogen interaction in gaharu formation was carried out based on the above mentioned problems with the following specific objectives, namely: i). to identify morphological characters of A. microcarpa trees interacting with F. solani sp, ii). to determine wood anatomical characters of A. microcarpa interacting with F. solani, and iii) to verify the genotypes of A. microcarpa seedlings and trees interacting with F.solani based on microsatellites. Results on tree morphological analysis showed that two out of 17 morphological characters (descriptor), namely tree height (m) and branching angles (0), showed significant differences between inoculated and non-inoculated individuals. In addition, microscopic observations on wood anatomical characters of A. microcarpa revealed that inoculated plants clearly deposited golden-brown colored resin in pores and canticles with a distinct scent. Further verification using GC MS on the sediment deposits identified common compounds as reported in many previous research on agarwood, namely: baimuxinal, elemol, 3-phenyl-2-butanone and chromone-3-one. On the other hand, tests on the viulence degrees of F. solani showed that one out of 4 strains, i.e. F.solani FORDA 512, showed the highest level of virulence and was significantly different with other F.solani, especially if inoculated on seedlings A60, A68 and B30. Two microsatellite loci of A. crassna, i.e. 6Pa18 and 71Pa17, were successfully transferable to A. microcarpa and could be used to characterize the genotypes of Fusarium-treated seedlings (n=40), inoculated trees (n=20) and non-inoculated trees (n=20). There were differences in terms of genetic structures between tree population and seedling population. Further sequence analysis on the microsatellite fragments on the most virulent F.solani FORDA 512- inoculated seedlings indicated genotype dependant responses for both seedling and tree stages. In addition, Sequence based cladogram showed that inoculated seedlings were closely placed with inoculated trees indicating certain genetic roles in the agarwood formation. In conclusion, tree morphological (i.e. height growth and branch habit) as well as genetic and genomic characters were clearly observed and useful to provide early information on gaharu formation. It is also supported by the wood anatomy analysis showing the presence of gaharu resin.
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Judul: Implementation of Long Short-Term Memory for Gold Prices Forecasting
Abstrak: Emas merupakan salah satu bentuk investasi dan disebut sebagai aset safe haven karena kestabilannya dalam kondisi pasar yang tidak stabil. Peramalan harga emas menjadi penting bagi investor sebagai alat bantu pengambilan keputusan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melihat pengaruh validasi silang dalam memperoleh hyperparameter LSTM (optimizer, learning rate, dan epoch) terbaik yang akan digunakan dalam peramalan. LSTM sebagai bagian metode deep learning dapat digunakan dalam peramalan selain menggunakan metode klasik. Algoritma ini merupakan pengembangan dari recurrent neural network yang banyak digunakan dalam peramalan deret waktu. LSTM dianggap unggul dan mampu meminimalkan kesalahan, serta mampu melakukan peramalan untuk periode jangka panjang dibanding metode lain. Walk forward validation dengan skenario pergeseran jendela (tahunan, semester, dan kuartal) sebagai bentuk validasi silang digunakan untuk melihat keakuratan metode. Data yang digunakan berasal dari World Gold Council dengan periode data harian untuk tanggal 1 Januari 2003 sampai dengan 20 Januari 2023. Optimizer yang digunakan adalah adam dan RMSProp dengan nilai learning rate 0,01; 0,001; dan 0,0001, serta nilai epoch 100, 500, dan 1000. Model terbaik adalah model dengan nilai MAPE terkecil sebesar 12,41% pada proses validasi menggunakan optimizer RMSProp, nilai learning rate 0,01, dan epoch 100. Hasil peramalan menunjukkan kecenderungan harga emas untuk meningkat dalam delapan tahun mendatang., Gold is a form of investment and is referred to as a safe haven asset because of its stability in unstable market conditions. Gold price forecasting is important for investors as decisions making tool. This study aims to study the effect of cross-validation in obtaining the best LSTM hyperparameters (optimizer, learning rate, and epoch) to be used in forecasting. LSTM as part of deep learning methods can be used in forecasting beside the classical method. Algorithm in the LSTM is developed based on a recurrent neural network that is widely used in time series forecasting. It was found that the LSTM is superior compared to other methods for its ability to minimize errors and to forecast for long-term periods. Walk forward validation with window shift scenarios (annual, semester, and quarter) as a form of cross validation is used to see the accuracy of the method. The data used came from the World Gold Council with daily data periods for January 1, 2003, to January 20, 2023. The optimizer used is adam and RMSProp each with learning rate values of 0.01; 0.001; and 0.0001, and with epoch values of 100, 500, and 1000. The best model was the model with the smallest MAPE value of 12.41% in the validation process using an optimizer RMSProp, a learning rate of 0.01, and epoch value of 100. Forecasting results show a tendency for gold prices to increase in the next eight years.
Keyword: deep learning, forecasting, gold, hyperparameter, LSTM