Judul: Pemodelan Hubungan Pelanggan dan Perusahaan Menggunakan Rantai Markov
Abstrak: Relationship between company and customers occurs due to marketing of the company products to customers and the transaction between customers and company. In the relationship between company and customers there is a term called recency which represents the number of months since the last transaction of a customer. Recency is assumed to form a Markov chain. Customer lifetime value (CLV) is a present value of future cash flow in customer lifetime transaction. CLV is used to determining the prospects of customer transactions in the future. The purpose of this manuscript is to model customer and company relations, to calculate customer lifetime value (CLV), and to apply the Markov chain model at the Oriflame company. Markov chain model is characterized by the number of states, transition probability matrix, and vector early probability. Through transaction data of the Oriflame customers, a transition probabilities matrix can be estimated using maximum likelihood method. CLV is calculated by Markov decision processes. The results shows that the relationship between the company and customers can be modeled with a Markov chain.
Keyword: recency, Markov chain, customer lifetime value

Judul: Desain Model Prediksi Churn Pelanggan Menggunakan Predictive Analytics Untuk Toko Kopi Modern
Abstrak: In today's competitive world, moving toward customer-oriented markets with increased access to customer's transaction data, identifying a loyal customer, predicting customer attrition, and estimating their lifetime value makes crucial. Since knowledge of customer value provides targeted data for personalized markets, implementing a customer relationship management strategy helps a company identify, segment customers, and create long-term relationships. As a result, they can maintain loyalty and minimize attrition. The goals of this research are: (1) to model a new business process, (2) to predict the customer churn using data mining tools based on CRM, (3) to recommend a fit strategy to prevent churn and maintain the loyalty, and (4) to evaluate the result from customer churn prediction. We used the customer's past transaction data, and it had 8 attributes: customer number, name, gender, handphone number, quantity, recent visit, total spending, and frequent visit. The result was that this system had three stakeholders: customer, management staff, and management staff internal. We conducted the surveys to all the registered customers to get the satisfaction data and continued by RFM analysis, CLV, and clustering based on the customer's past transaction. The result obtained from RFM, CLV, and Clustering predicts the churn using decision tree analysis. As the final result of this research, we obtained 31 rules with 86% accuracy in the model. The marketing strategies are then designed to prevent churn and maintain loyalty.
Keyword: customer relationship management, churn prediction, RFM, CLV analysis, decision tree analysis

Judul: Habitat dan biologi burung walet sarang hitam (Collocalia maximaa) di Gua Way Nenok, Taman Nasional Bukit Barisan Selatan
Abstrak: Sarang burung walet dimanfaatkan sebagai makanan orang sejak pertengahan abad 14, yang pengambilannya banyak dilakukan di gua-gua alam. Sarang burung walet sarang putih (Collocalia fuciphaga) dan walet sarang hitam (Collocalia maxima) merupakan barang bernilai ekonomis yang telah diperdagangkan di dunia internasional, komoditi sarang burung dikenal dengan nama "bird's nest". Di Indonesia penelitian ilmiah mengenai walet sarang hitam belum banyak dilakukan. Penelitian dilaksanakan di Gua Way Nenok yang terletak di Taman Nasional Bukit Barisan Selatan. Waktu penelitian pada bulan Oktober-Nopember 1.997. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengumpulkan informasi dan pengetahuan mengenai kondisi habitat dan biologi walet sarang hitam (Collocalia maxima), khususnya kondisi fisik gua, perilaku, dan morfologi. Hasil dari penelitian diharapkan dapat memberikan masukan dalam pengelolaan gua sebagai penghasil sarang burung walet berdasarkan asas kelestarian hasil sarang dan kelestarian populasi burung walet. Burung walet sarang hitam secara keseluruhan berwarna coklat kehitaman, bulu pada bagian bawah tubuh berwarna coklat. Garis-garis putih terdapat pada lingkaran leher, dada, tungging dan pangkal ekor bagian bawah. Alis mata tebal menyerupai elang, ekor hampir tidak bercelah dan...
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