Judul: Dampak Ekonomi dan Strategi Pengelolaan Kebun Raya Bogor Sesuai Daya Dukung Kawasan Wisata
Abstrak: Bogor Botanical Garden is an ex-situ conservation which provides variety of flora that developed for recreation and natural observation tourism. The increasing of visitors every year directly and indirectly produce income generating for the local community. Besides, it also can decrease the ecological functions. Therefore, based on the potensial positive and negative impact of the tourism activity, it is necessary to recognize the carrying capacity, economic impact, and management strategy of Bogor Botanical Garden. The result shows that the estimation of area carrying capacity is 29 655 people/day. The highest carrying capacity ratio is the observations of flora that is 41.67%. This ratio indicated that existing condition of Bogor Botanical Garden is still lower than the area carrying capacity should be. The economic impact generated from tourism activities was measured by the value of the multiplier effect. The values of keynesian income multiplier was 1.00, ratio income multiplier type 1 was 1.4, and ratio income multiplier type 2 was 1.6. These results indicate that Bogor Botanical Garden has considerable economic impact and affected the economy of local communities. Based on SWOT analysis, some alternative management strategies are: (1) maintain the tourism management system including affordable entrance fee of Bogor Botanical Garden travel, (2) the management and tourist should work together to preserve natural resources and environment, (3) increase tourism promotion primarily for research activities, (4) tourism segmentation in order to avoid over-carrying capacity in the points of specific areas, (5) improvement of flora education which is offered by the human resources in tourism, (6) improve and manage the business units which considering of sustainability as ex-situ conservation, and (7) improve and explain about the information of availability of facilities and biodiversities.
Keyword: SWOT, Multiplier Effect, Economic Impact, Carrying Capacity, Bogor Botanical Garden

Judul: Analysis of Perception and Carrying Capacity of Bogor  Botanical Gardens in the New Normal Era of COVID-19
Abstrak: Pemerintah Indonesia mengeluarkan kebijakan new normal demi menjaga keberlanjutan berbagai sektor, salah satunya sektor pariwisata. Pelonggaran kebijakan berdampak pada kenaikan jumlah wisatawan di Kebun Raya Bogor secara tiba-tiba. Hal tersebut memberikan potensi negatif terhadap kerusakan lingkungan dan kelestarian sumber daya alam di Kebun Raya Bogor. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah 1) Mengidentifikasi persepsi wisatawan terhadap kenyamanan berwisata ke Kebun Raya Bogor di era new normal COVID-19; 2) Mengestimasi kapasitas daya dukung Kawasan Kebun Raya Bogor; dan 3) Merumuskan strategi pengeloaan kawasan wisata Kebun Raya Bogor di era new normal COVID-19. Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa Kebun Raya Bogor mendapatkan rataan nilai sebesar 3,34 atau mendapatkan persepsi positif akan kenyamanan saat melakukan kegiatan wisata di Kebun Raya Bogor di era new normal. Pada perhitungan daya dukung wisata, Kebun Raya Bogor secara keseluruh tidak mengalami over carrying capacity Berdasarkan analisis QSPM, melakukan penyuluhan atau sosialisasi mengenai kesadaran dalam pelestarian lingkungan wisata merupakan strategi prioritas dalam pengelolaan Kebun Raya Bogor di era new normal., The Indonesian Government has implemented a new normal policy to ensure the sustainability of various sectors, including the tourism sector. The relaxation of this policy has led to a sudden increase in the number of tourists at Bogor Botanical Gardens. This poses a potential negative impact on environmental damage and the conservation of natural resources in Bogor Botanical Gardens. The objectives of this research are: 1) to identify tourists' perceptions of comfort while visiting Bogor Botanical Gardens in the new normal era of COVID-19; 2) to estimate the carrying capacity of the Bogor Botanical Gardens area; and 3) to formulate management strategies for Bogor Botanical Gardens in the new normal era of COVID-19. The research results show that Bogor Botanical Gardens received an average score of 3.34, indicating a positive perception of comfort when engaging in activities at the gardens during the new normal era. In terms of tourist carrying capacity calculations, Bogor Botanical Gardens as a whole does not exceed its carrying capacity. According to the QSPM analysis, providing education or raising awareness about environmental conservation in tourism is a priority strategy for managing Bogor Botanical Gardens in the new normal era.
Keyword: physical carrying capacity (PCC), QSPM, skala likert, strategi pengelolaan

Judul: Pemodelan Selang Kelahiran Anak Pertama
Abstrak: Seiang kelahiran anak pertam3 mcrupakan jarak waktu dari umur pcrkawinan pcrtama pada \Vanila sampai umur kclahiran anak pertama. Selang kelahiran anak pertama dapal digunakan scbagai penduga kesuburan \Vanila karena pada umumnya pasangan suami islri yang bam menikah tidak menunda kelahiran anak pertama
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