Judul: Peran sektor peternakan unggas dan dampak flu burung terhadap kinerja sektor ekonomi di Indonesia (Analisis input-output)
Abstrak: Flu burung adalah suatu penyakit yang disebabkan oleh sejenis virus pathogen yaitu virus influenza tipe-A. Wabah flu burung yang terjadi telah menghacurkan sektor peternakan unggas dan telah menimbulkan korban jiwa. Hal ini menimbulkan ketakutan bagi masyarakat untuk mengkonsumsi produk unggas. Selain itu wabah flu burung juga menimbulkan kerugian di sektor lain (sektor hulu dan hilir) yang mempunyai keterkaitan (ke depan dan ke belakang) dengan sektor peternakan unggas. Tujuan penelitian ini yaitu 1) menganalisis besarnya peranan sektor peternakan unggas terhadap perekonomian Indonesia dalam pembentukan struktur permintaan dan struktur penawaran, struktur konsumsi, struktur investasi, struktur ekspor dan impor, struktur nilai tambah bruto, 2) mengetahui besarnya nilai keterkaitan sektor peternakan unggas dengan sektor-sektor lain, 3) mengetahui besarnya indeks daya penyebaran sektor peternakan unggas dengan sektor ekonomi lain, 4) mengetahui besarnya efek pengganda yang ditimbulkan sektor ekonomi di Indonesia, 5) menganalisis dampak flu burung terhadap sektor peternakan unggas dan sektor-sektor ekonomi lain di Indonesia. Penelitian ini dilaksanakan pada bulan April sampai Agustus 2005. Data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder berupa Tabel Input-Output tahun 2000 dalam bentuk Tabel Transaksi Domestik Atas Dasar Harga Produsen, kemudian diagregasi menjadi 18 sektor yang berkaitan dengan sektor peternakan unggas lalu diolah menggunakan software eviews 4.1 dan microsoft Excell. Berdasarkan hasil analisis Tabel Input-Output Indonesia tahun 2000 tentang dampak flu burung terhadap perekonomian di Indonesia dapat disimpulkan sebagai berikut: 1) peranan sektor peternakan unggas Indonesia terhadap perekonomian Indonesia output sebesar 1.32 persen, 2) nilai keterkaitan sektor peternakan unggas tertinggi ke depan dengan sektor peternakan non unggas dan nilai keterkaitan ke belakang tertinggi dengan sektor industri pakan ternak, 3) nilai daya penyebaran menunjukan sektor peternakan unggas lebih mendorong pertumbuhan sektor hulunya dibandingkan sektor hilirnya, 4) dilihat dari nilai multiplier bahwa sektor peternakan unggas memiliki peranan yang cukup baik dalam peningkatan output, pendapatan dan penyerapan tenaga kerja, 5) dampak flu burung yang menurunkan permintaan terhadap permintaan unggas sebesar 50 persen akan mengurangi total output perekonomian Indonesia sebesar Rp 34,48 trilyun 1,32 persen dari total outputnya, pendapatan berkurang sebesar Rp 7,06 trilyun atau 1,37 persen dari total pendapatan dan mengurangi penyerapan tenaga kerja sebesar 1.644.356 orang atau 1,74 persen dari total tenaga kerja.
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Judul: Dampak flu burung terhadap perekonomian : tinjauan aspek lingkungan, sosial dan ekonomi nasional
Abstrak: There are three environmental factors which are considered as a medium of avian virus transmission: (1) physical environment, (2) biological environment and (3) the social environment or human behavior (trader or farm owner). Those are the main medium of transmission of avian flu disease of both humans and among poultries. Using logistic regression model this primary data are analized. The samples from three area in Tangerang are selected for poultry owners and traders. The result of the research explains that some aspects of environment are significant medium which are: characteristic of farmers: age, formal education and the purpose of poultry farming; physical environments are: distance between the cages, sewerage of wastewater and the cleanlines of the yard; biological environment are: the existance of other animal, manure; social environment are: reporting, the frequency of receiving information and disinfectant in the gate. For traders, the significant medium of environmental aspects are: characteristic of traders: age, formal education and the purpose of poultry trading; physical environment: market condition, the cleanlines of the floor, the cleanlines of the cage and the cleanlines of poultry plate; biological environment: the frequency of new poultry, other animal, source of food and food ingredients; social environment: infected poultry contact, vaccination, the frequency of receiving information and reporting. The negative impact of the outbreak of bird flu on economic sectors in the sectoral and macro aspect is analized using Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. Base on SNSE 2008 data and some disagregation data sectors, two simulations are conducted. The result of the simulation studies indicate that the decrease in the productivity of poultry meat sector (traditional and medium-large) and egg sector impacts on the micro and macro aspects of the economy. On the micro level in domestic market there are decresed production and increased prices in the poultry sector, eggs, other farms, restaurants and services. While in the foreign market there are decresed exports as well as imports. Similarly, there is a decline in consumption by the entire group of household due to a decline in the income by all groups of households and firms. Government revenue also decline due to a decrease in taxes from households and firms. At the macro level there are a decline in GDP and a decline in the investment. The second simulation illustrate the increase of production and the impact of government policy on the micro aspects and the overall economy. On the micro level in domestic market there are increased production and decreased prices in the sector of poultry, eggs, other farms, restaurants and services. While in foreign market there are increased exports and decreased imports in almost all sectors. Similarly, there are an increase in consumption by the entire group of households due to an increse in the income by all groups of households and firms. Government revenue also increased due to an increse in taxes from household and firms.
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Judul: Construction of Strongly Optimal Binary Linear Code with Minimum Distance 9 and 11
Abstrak: A binary linear code of length n over q F is a subspace of n q F . A code has three parameters that attached to it, namely length, dimension, and minimum distance. A code with length n, dimension k and minimum distance d is often called [n, k, d ]-code. Usually, when two parameters are given, then we want to find a code that has the best value for the last parameter. Based on Gilbert- Varshamov bound, if a [n, k, d ]-code exists and can not be expanded, we call it a strongly optimal code. In this paper, we construct strongly optimal code with minimum distance 9 and 11. In constructing the code, we created a theorem and algorithm based on Gilbert-Varshamov bound before we implement the algorithm to MAPLE programming language. Because of computational limitations, the program can only construct up to k = 10 for d = 9 and k = 12 for d = 11.
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