Judul: Support Vector Regression (SVR) with Optimal Hyperparameters and its Application in Rupiah Exchange Rate Prediction
Abstrak: Nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap United States Dollar (USD) merupakan harga satu unit USD dalam Rupiah. Support Vector Regression (SVR) digunakan untuk memprediksi nilai tukar Rupiah beberapa minggu ke depan. Data yang digunakan pada penelitian ini berada pada periode 6 Januari 2019 hingga 31 Desember 2023. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk melihat pengaruh dari harga-harga pasar internasional seperti gas alam, nikel, dan minyak bumi, tingkat inflasi di Indonesia, dan tingkat suku bunga Bank Indonesia terhadap nilai tukar Rupiah, membandingkan model Support Vector Regression dengan berbagai kernel dan skenario, dan memprediksi nilai tukar Rupiah menggunakan model paling baik dalam penelitian ini pada periode 7 Januari 2024 hingga 24 Maret 2024. Model SVR paling baik pada penelitian ini adalah model SVR dengan kernel RBF yang dilatih pada data training dengan hyperparameter C = 10, e = 0.2, dan ? = 0.01 menggunakan skenario ke-3. Model tersebut memiliki MAPE sebesar 0.984% dan trend accuracy sebesar 0.635. Nilai tukar Rupiah diprediksi mengalami tren negatif selama 12 minggu ke depan., The Rupiah exchange rate against the United States Dollar (USD) is the price of one USD unit in Rupiah. Support Vector Regression (SVR) model used to predict the Rupiah exchange rate for over few weeks. The data used in this research covers the period from January, 6-th 2019 to December, 31-st 2023. The aim of this research is to see the influence of international market prices such as natural gas, nickel, and petroleum, the inflation rate in Indonesia, and Bank Indonesia interest rate on the Rupiah exchange rate, to compare Support Vector Regression models with various kernels and scenarios, and to predict the Rupiah exchange rate using the best model in this study for the period from January, 7-th 2024 to March, 24-th 2024.The best SVR model in this research is the SVR model with RBF kernel which is trained on training data with hyperparameters C = 10, e = 0.2, and ? = 0.01 using the 3rd scenario. This model has a MAPE of 0.984% and a trend accuracy of 0.635. The Rupiah exchange rate is predicted to experience a negative trend over the next 12 Weeks.
Keyword: Support Vector Regression, Rupiah Exchange Rate, Trend Accuracy, Prediction

Judul: Pemodelan Nilai Tukar Rupiah terhadap Dollar Amerika Menggunakan Deret Waktu Hidden Markov Empat Waktu Sebelumnya
Abstrak: The exchange rate of Rupiah to US Dollar fluctuates according to time in a long period. An existing exchange rate might happen again in the future. Assume that the causes of the fluctuation are not observed directly and form a Markov chain, then the exchange rate of Rupiah to US Dollar can be modeled by the hidden Markov time series. In this research, the model used to describe the exchange rate of Rupiah to US Dollar is the four previous time in hidden Markov time series. This model assumes that the exchange rate of Rupiah to US Dollar depends on Markov chain explained by the cause of occurence and the four previous exchange rates of Rupiah to US Dollar. The model parameter is estimated by using the maximum likelihood method, while the estimation itself is calculated using the expectation maximization algorithm, which is implemented using Mathematica. After estimating the parameter, the exchange rate of Rupiah to US Dollar are calculated. The results are as follows. The symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE) is 2,1%, the maximum absolute error is 19,16%, the minimum absolute error is 0,0036%, and only 1,95% of the whole absolute percentage error that is bigger than 10%. These results show that the four previous time in hidden Markov time series can describe the exchange rate of Rupiah to US Dollar very well.
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Judul: Trichomonas Gallinae Penyebab Trichomonosis Pada Unggas
Abstrak: Trichomonas gallinae adalah protozoa yang bergerak aktof dengan keempat flagella yang mempunyai layar dan pada salah satu sisinya terdapat membran seperti sirip ikan yang berombak. Spesies dari genus Trichomonas ini mempunyai arti penting pada unggas, karena dapat menyebabkan infeksi pada alat pencernaan bagian atas.
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