Judul: Financial Feasibility Analysis of Rubber and Oil Palm Farming in Dolok Masihul District, Serdang Bedagai Regency, North Sumatera Province
Abstrak: Upaya Kabupaten Serdang Bedagai dalam meningkatkan luas lahan kelapa sawit memiliki persaingan dengan komoditas karet. Tanaman karet merupakan tanaman yang diusahakan secara turun temurun. Petani tidak memiliki catatan history tentang usahatani karet dan kelapa sawit sehingga tidak diketahui secara pasti manakah usahatani yang lebih layak untuk dijalankan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk (1) Mengidentifikasi aspek-aspek kelayakan dan mengestimasi kelayakan finansial usahatani karet dan kelapa sawit di Kecamatan Dolok Masihul (2) Menganalisis switching value dan sensitivitas perubahan harga jual output dan harga beli input pada usahatani karet dan kelapa sawit di Kecamatan Dolok Masihul dan (3) Menganalisis persepsi petani terhadap usahatani karet dan kelapa sawit di Kecamatan Dolok Masihul. Metode dalam penelitian ini adalah analisis deskriptif, analisis kelayakan finansial, analisis switching value, analisis sensitivitas dan analisis likert. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan usahatani karet dan kelapa sawit layak untuk dijalankan. Berdasarkan kriteria investasi menunjukkan usahatani kelapa sawit lebih menguntungkan dibandingkan dengan usahatani karet. Analisis switching value dan sensitivitas menunjukkan bahwa adanya perubahan harga output dan input mempengaruhi pendapatan petani karet dan kelapa sawit. Alasan yang mempengaruhi petani untuk tetap berusahatani karet antara lain usahatani karet adalah usahatani yang dilakukan secara turun temurun, pendapatan usahatani karet masih dapat memenuhi kebutuhan hidup sehari-hari, dan petani nyaman dalam berusahatani karet., The efforts of Serdang Bedagai Regency in increasing the area of oil palm land have competition with rubber commodities. Rubber plant is a plant that is cultivated from generation to generation. Farmers do not have historical records of rubber and oil palm farming so it is not known for sure which farming is more feasible to run. This study aims to (1) Identify the feasibility aspects and estimate the financial feasibility of rubber and oil palm farming in Dolok Masihul District (2) Analyze the switching value and the sensitivity of changes in the selling prices of output and the purchase price of inputs on rubber and oil palm farming in Dolok Masihul District and (3) Analyze farmers’ perceptions of rubber and oil palm farming in Dolok Masihul District. The methods in this research are descriptive analysis, financial feasibility analysis, switching value analysis, sensitivity analysis and likert analysis. The result showed that rubber and oil palm farming was feasible 94 to run. Based on the investment criteria, it shows that oil palm farming is more profitable than rubber farming. Switching value analysis and sensitivity analysis shows that changes in output and input prices affect the income of rubber and oil palm farmers. The reasons that influence farmers to continue farming rubber are: rubber farming has been carried out from generation to generation, rubber farming income can still meet the needs of daily life, and farmers are comfortable in rubber farming.
Keyword: welfare, conversion, cultivation, production, profit

Judul: Financial analysis of rubber plantation conversion into oil palm plantation and its impact on income distribution in Muaro Jambi Regency.
Abstrak: Rubber and oil palm plantations give bigger contribution to region economics development in Jambi Province. These commodities export rank first in that of farm estate commodity. Land conversion activities happened from rubber plantation into oil palm plantation because of many reasons. The objectives of this research are to estimate profit of rubber and oil palm farming, to identify influencing factors of land conversion and to know its impact on income distribution. Methods to determine the structure of income and production cost are performed by farming analysis and feasibility of rubber and oil farming for 25 years are used by financial analysis. Factors influencing of farmer decision are analyzed using logit regression analysis and the impact on farmers income are analyzed using income distribution analysis. The research was conducted from February to March 2013 in Jambi Luar Kota Subdistrict, Muaro Jambi Regency. It applied a survey method using structured questionnaires. Primary data collected from rubber farmers and oil palm farmers who converted their rubber plantation. Secondary data also collected from relevant agencies. The results showed that a decrease of rubber plantation area in Muaro Jambi Regency during 2005 to 2010 about 3 429 hectares while in the same period the area of palm oil plantation increasing with average of 2 242.33 hectares per year. Profit and financial feasibility analysis of rubber farming is higher than oil palm farming. Influencing factors of land conversion are farmers education, frequency of rubber tapping and dummy other income sources at ten percent probability level. The job creation of rubber farming is less than oil palm farming for daily worker there.
Keyword: rubber farming, oil palm farming, land conversion

Judul: Approximation of the Median of Poisson Distribution Using the Relation of Poisson-Gamma Distribution
Abstrak: A major drawback of median is that median cannot usually be defined in closed form, even in the cases where their distribution functions are known. This study gives an approximation of the closed form for the median of the Poisson distribution by using the relation of Poisson-Gamma distribution. The approximation uses elementary techniques based on the monotonicity of certain sequences involving tail probabilities of the Poisson distribution and the Central Limit Theorem. Furthermore, a closed form expression for the mean absolute deviation 􀜧|􀜰􀰒 􀵆 􀜯􀝁􀝀􁈺􀜰􀰒􁈻| is also studied. The median is relevant because of the fact that it minimizes the mean absolute deviation of a Poisson random variable (􀜰􀰒􁈻 by considering median as central tendency.
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