Judul: Statistical Downscaling of GCM Data using Support Vector Regression to Predict Monthly Rainfall in Indramayu.
Abstrak: The knowledge about weather and climate pattern, especially rainfall is required by many sectors such as, agricultural, plantation, transportation, and so on. Recently, the model that is used to observe the impact and to predict the climate change is the global circulation model (GCM). However, the current GCM-resolution data is too low and it is difficult to predict the local climate pattern that requires high resolution. However, it is possible to obtain regionalscale information if it is combined with statistical downscaling (SD) methods. The main objective of this research is to develop SD models by using support vector regression (SVR) in forecasting monthly rainfall in Indramayu, in order to get the accurate climate information based on GCM data. The results of this research showed that overall, the model is good enough to predict rainfall with normal conditions. But for extreme circumstances, although the prediction model was able to follow the pattern of the observational data, but the value of the resulting predictions have not managed to predict accuratelly the actual observed values. Variations of the evaluation of estimated results by the model for 13 rain stations in Indramayu district showed that the location of rain stations in certain areas can influence and determine the accuracy of the monthly rainfall forecast. Rain observations points located farther from the sea tend to have better estimation results than the observation points located close to the sea.
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Judul: Downscaling Methodology Development Using Arftificial Neyral Network (Case Study of Indramayu’s Rainfall).
Abstrak: The unexpected climate change results a long period wet and dry so it makes many agricultural areas damage. This is cause the farmers failed to harvest so the production of food will be decreased. To solve this problem, we need a model that can estimate the climate and rainfall so it can determine the suitable cropping pattern with the climate. Statistical downscaling modeling commonly used to model the changes of the weather. This study develops a statistical downscaling model that use artificial neural network with some of GCM data as an input in training. In this study, the GCM data is input for training. Before training this data is grouped into 5 groups. The results obtained indicate that some of the GCM can approach the average of monthly rainfall. However, in some extreme point, the result have not managed to reach and close to results of observation. The best results obtained with the correlation Bondan station at 0.4976 and the worst results obtained Krangkeng station with a correlation of 0.3704. In this study also can be seen that the estimators can be influenced by the location of the observation. The location is adjacent to the sea tend to have the results of a relatively lower correlation compared with the location that far from the sea.
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Judul: Isolasi komponen hemotoksin bisa ular kobra (Naja naja sputatrix)
Abstrak: Elisa ular adalah racun yang diproduksi oleh kelenjar bisa dan digunakan ular untuk mempertahankan dinat mencari mangsa. Bisa ini merupakan campuran dari berbagai komponen. Enzim adalah kompoth utama selain air. Enzim pada bisa ular sangat beragam jenis dan fungsinya. Fosfolipase dan arginin ipadase adalah enzim yang sering terdapat dalam bisa ular dan telah digunakan pada penanganan penyak seperti trombosis Penttian ini bertujuan mengisolasi komponen dari bisa ular kobra dan mengujinya menggunakan sel darah merah sapi 4% untuk aktivitas hemolisis dan bekuan fibrin sapi untuk aktivitas fibrinolisis. Uji aktivitas dilakukan terhadap ekstrak kasar dan fraksi kolom bisa ular. Fraksi kolom diperoleh dari pemurutan ekstrak kasar menggunakan kromatografi filtrasi gel (Sephadex G-75) untuk memperoleh fraksa paksu dengan serapan tertinggi pada A. 280 nm. Ekstrak kasar dan fraksi kolom dengan serapan tertinggi dilakukan pengukuran kandungan protein, Fraksi aktif hasil uji aktivitas selanjutnya ditentukan berat molekulnya (BM) dengan elektroforesis SDS PAGE. Basaglar kobra merupakan cairan pekat berwarna kuning dengan kadar air 71.45%. Dari hasil uji aktivitas diperoleh bisa ular hanya memiliki aktivitas hemolisis sel darah merah sapi secara langsung. Aktivitas ini ditunjukkan oleh fraksi kolom nomor 15 dan 16 tetapi tidak dalam ekstrak kasar. Penurunan konsentrasi ekstrak kasar tidak mempengaruhi terhadap adanya aktivitas hemolisis. Hal ini diduga karena mungkin terdapat inhibitor dalam ekstrak kasar bisa. Inhibitor memiliki BM yang berbeda dengan enzim hemalisis sehingga dapat dipisahkan menggunakan filtrasi gel. Berdasarkan hasil elektroforesis diperolch enzim bemolisis terdapat dalam ekstrak kasar dan tersebar pada fraksi kolom nomor 15 dan 16 dengan BM sekitar 27300 Da
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