Judul: Metode deteksi degradasi hutan menggunakan citra satelit landsat di Hutan Lahan Kering Taman Nasional Gunung Halimun Salak
Abstrak: Indonesia merupakan salah satu negara yang mempunyai laju deforestasi yang tinggi yaitu 1,1 juta Ha/th (Dephut 2008). Indonesia telah mengakomodasi pentingnya pengurangan degradasi hutan untuk mengurangi emisi melalui Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) sejak tahun 2009. Deteksi degradasi hutan menggunakan teknologi penginderaan jauh masih menjadi masalah yang krusial untuk mendukung prosedur operasional monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) REDD. Deteksi degradasi belum mempunyai metode standar klasifikasi perubahan kelas tutupan hutan pada citra maupun keadaan di lapangan. Berkenaan dengan hal tersebut maka pada penelitian ini dikaji beberapa metode klasifikasi berbasis piksel serta kelas-kelas degradasi hutan yang terukur dilapangan untuk deteksi degradasi hutan. Tujuan utama penelitian ini adalah mengidentifikasi metode dan membangun prosedur yang tepat untuk deteksi degradasi hutan. Tujuan khususnya adalah 1) mengidentifikasi peubah yang dapat digunakan sebagai indikator degradasi hutan di lapangan, 2) mengevaluasi tingkat akurasi klasifikasi kerapatan hutan menggunakan metode FCD, maximum likelihood, fuzzy dan belief-dempster shafer, 3) mengevaluasi tingkat akurasi deteksi degradasi hutan di Taman Nasional Gunung Halimun Salak (TNGHS). Metode deteksi degradasi hutan yang diuji adalah metode berbasis piksel dengan menggunakan metode post classification comparison (PCC). Metode klasifikasi citra yang digunakan adalah forest canopy density, maximum likelihood, fuzzy dan belief –dempster shafer. Metode identifikasi peubah kelas degradasi hutan dilapangan adalah dengan menggunakan analisis korelasi antara indikator tegakan yaitu volume, lbds dan kerapatan tegakan dengan indikator tajuk yaitu Crown Size Index (CDI), Crown Damage Index (CDI), Visual Crown Rating (VCR) dan Leaf Area Index (LAI) dan kerapatan tajuk. Uji hasil klasifikasi kerapatan hutan dan degradasi hutan menggunakan overall accuracy dan analisis Kappa. Hasil analisis regresi antara indikator tajuk dengan luas bidang dasar dan volume mempunyai koefisien determinasi yang rendah. Hasil analisis regresi antara indikator tajuk dengan kerapatan tegakan mempunyai koefisien determinasi yang lebih baik sehingga indikator kerapatan tegakan terpilih sebagai indikator deteksi degradasi hutan dilapangan.
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Judul: Strategi Pengendalian Degradasi Hutan di Taman Nasional Gunung Halimun Salak
Abstrak: Forest degradation can be defined as changes within the forest which negatively affect the structure or function of the stand or site, and thereby lower the capacity to supply products and/or services. The process involving the canopy quality decrease and forest structure in a long term. Therefore, to detect and manage the rate of degradation, satellite remote sensing provides the capabilities to monitor it time effectively. Forest degradation caused by interaction of many factors, hence driving factors analysis required to arrange the strategy of forest degradation management. The aim of this study is to analyze the forest degradation within the Halimun Salak National Park (TNGHS). The specific objectives of the study are 1) to detect the forest degradation level by canopy cover as the indicator, 2) to assess the forest degradation driving factors, and 3) to arrange the forest degradation management strategy in TNGHS. The forest canopy density (FCD) method was used to detect the degradation by percentage of canopy cover as the indicator. The canopy cover was devided in 4 cover density class, i.e non forest (0-10% canopy cover), low density forest (11-30%), moderate density (31-50%) and high density forest (51-100%). Decreasing among the forest density class hereinafter appointed as slightly degraded forest, severely degraded forest, and deforestation. The spatial analysis result showed that among 2003 – 2007 degraded forest cover a total area of 5005,71 Ha, while slightly degraded forest occupied for 2764,80 Ha, deforestation 1493,46 Ha and severely degraded forest is 747,45 Ha. Then, among 2003 – 2011, indicates that the area interpreted as deforestation had becoming less than before. This can be caused by vast cloud coverage in 2011 imagery, also rehabilitation and restoration in open area, so in time of data interpretation the visibility of vegetation cover identified as forest canopy cover. During 2003 – 2011 period, the result showed that slightly degraded forest occupied for 6197,13 Ha, severely degraded forest for 1200,15 Ha, and deforestation for 189,9 Ha. Stepwise regression was used to assess the driving factors affecting the total area of forest degradation. The observation unit is village (Desa) within the study site. Based on regression technique, the distance to the sub-district (Kecamatan) is the most important variable for forest degradation total area. The other significant factors are population growth, growth of build up area (non agriculture area), and percentage of amount agriculture household. Distance to the sub-district and growth of build up area show that there is space utilization, both inside the park or regency administrative area. While, population growth and amount of agriculture household are underlying process which drive the change of space utilization pattern and intensity, so that lead to allocation changing for every land use to support the region growth to fulfill the population need. Considering that TNGHS presence as both cross-section and interest stakeholders, then the regulation establishment is needed first in term the space utilization, due to its important role to control or manage the forest degradation driving factors. In arrangement of the strategy, degradation management focus was determined by the role and implementation of regulation and policy related
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Judul: Dynamical System of Hepatitis B in Three Groups with Vaccination
Abstrak: The aim of this study is to modify the hepatitis B transmission model in three age groups involving vaccination from the model conducted by Zhoe and Zhang.The method used is to analyze the stability of the fixed point and its basic reproduction number (R_0). Performed stability analysis and numerical simulation to see population dynamics. Next, a sensitivity analysis of the parameters was carried out to see its effect on R_0. From the analysis obtained two fixed points, namely non-endemic and endemic fixed points. Non-endemic fixed points are locally asymptotically stable if R_0 <1 Meanwhile, the endemic fixed point is locally asymptotically stable if R_0 > 1. Hepatitis vaccination affects the number of susceptible population, because the more successful the vaccination, the smaller the number of susceptible populations so that the smaller the population will be infected.
Keyword: Dynamic, Hepatitis B, Vaccine, Mathematical model