Judul: Penggunaan model ARIMA dalam peramalan suhu udara di sekitar Palangkaraya
Abstrak: Recent forest and land wildfires in Indonesia not only result in ecosystem loss but also economic loss and health and pollution effect. The other hand, fire weather is believed to be an important aspects for fire occurrences. Fire weather directly affects fuel temperature, accelerating its easiness to burn. Thus, it is important to clarify the effects of air temperature to forest fire incidence. A statistical analysis and forecasting for air temperature is needed to predict the air temperature condition in the future. Thisstudyused AutoregressiveIntegratedMovingAverage(ARIMA) model for air temperature forecasting in Palangkaraya, Central Kalimantan. Palangkaraya has become the fire dense areas due to several high fire occurrences in recent years. The result showedthat theAR(5) model could be usedfor daily airtemperaturemodeling foreight forecasting days with aMAPEvalue of3.11%. ARIMA(0,1,1) could be usedfor weekly airtemperatureforecastingwith aMAPEvalue of2.1%. Therefore these models could be used for air temperatureforecasting, althoughthey produced relativelyconstantvalueof temperature forecastingon27oCand28oC. For the monthly temperature, model MA (1) could be used with a MAPE value of 2.08%. Forecasting for the next 6 months also tend to resulta constant temperature at 26.8 oC, but MA (1) has lowest MAPE value, indicating that MA(1) is the best model for predicting the air temperature of Palangkaraya in the future.
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Judul: Penggunaan Elman Recurrent Neural Network dalam Peramalan Suhu Udara sebagai Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Kebakaran Hutan
Abstrak: Recent forest and land wildfires in Indonesia not only cause to the ecosystem lost but also economical lost as well as health and polution effect. On the other hand, fire weather is concerned to be an important aspects for fire occurrences. Fire weather directly affects fuel temperature, which accelerating its easiness to be burnt. Thus, it is important to clarify the effects of air temperature to forest fire incidence. A statistical analysis and forecasting for air temperature is used to predict the future air temperature condition. In this research we use Elman Recurrent Neural Network (ERNN) to predict the temperature for a few days ahead, then the result of this prediction will be compared by using ARIMA (Ramdani, 2011). In this research we use the air temperature data of 2001- 2004 which implemented using MATLAB. The best result in this research is one day ahead prediction with RMSE 0.51 and MAPE 1.55%. ERNN gave the better performance with MAPE (ERNN) 1.55% and MAPE (ARIMA) 3.11% (Ramdani, 2011).
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Judul: Biology Of Columbia Lance Nematode (Hoplolaimus Columbus Sher) On Soybean Excised Root Culture
Abstrak: S. Supramana, S. A. Lewis,.J. D. Mueller, B. A. Fortnum, and R. E. Ballard. 2001. Biology of Columbia lance nematod. ~ (Hoplolaimus columbus Sher) on soybean excised root culture. Nematropica 31 :283-2~)O. Feeding, egg development and oviposition, embryology, and postembtyonic development or Hoplolaimus col'lmbuswere observed on soybean (cultivar Hutcheson) excised root culture in Gam borg's B5 medium (pH 5.7,1.3% agar). Petri plate sterile cultures were placed inverted on a heated microscope stage (30°C) and observations were conducted using a color video camera and a time lapse digital videoca:;sette recorder. Oocytes were obsetved in each gonad 38 hours after feeding commenced and all egg possessing a terminal stalk was laid 96 hours later. Eggs were deposited it, the one-celled stag~ and a total of 217 hours (9 days) was required for a"newly laid egg to develop into a hatching second-stage juvenile at 30°C. Postembryonic development consisted of threejuvenile stages and an adult female with prior feeding occurring before molts and oviposition. The nematode fed ectoparasiticallyon the subepidermal cells and endoparasitically in the cortex and outer vascular tissue and remained at the infection site for 2·9 days. Key words: Columbia lance nematode, embryology, excised root culture, feeding behavior, HOfilo{aimus columbus, life cycle, oviposition, postembryonic development, soybean.
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