Judul: Climate Change Projection based on Regional Climate Model’s Output (Case study: Indramayu Regency and Pacitan Regency)
Abstrak: Climate change projection study in regional scale can be done by using regional climate model, one of them is by using Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3). RegCM3 has a wide range of adjustable parameters that can be set in order to obtain the simulation results that fit to the observed climatic conditions of the studied regions. One of the adjustable parameters available in the model is related to the use of cloud/convective parameterization schemes. In this study, two convective schemes were assessed for the studied regions, i.e. Grell and MIT-emanuel convective schemes. Based on the analysis of both schemes, it was shown that the MIT-Emanuel convective scheme can deliver better results in simulating seasonal rainfall pattern in the studied regions, i.e. in Indramayu and Pacitan. Nevertheless, the MIT-emanuel scheme tends to reproduce overestimate rainfall compared to the observation, resulting systematic biases that require corrections by using correction factors. In this research, the study of climate change projections was conducted based on SRES A1B emissions scenario, which describes the balance of the use of fossil and non-fossil energy in the future. Model results showed that the rainfall were projected to change relative to current baseline from -43.81 to 34.02% in the district of Indramayu, and from -37.95 to 45.25% in the district of Pacitan. The mean air temperatures were also projected to increase from 0.43 to 2.94 0C for Indramayu and from 0.48 to 2.55 0C for Pacitan. Analysis in the change of extreme rainfall showed that the probability or the frequency of extreme rainfall will increase in Pacitan, while remain relatively constant in Indramayu.
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Judul: Evaluasi Skema Konveksi dalam Model Iklim Regional RegCM4 untuk Simulasi Keragaman Curah Hujan Musiman dan Intra Musiman di Indonesia
Abstrak: RegCM4 simulations for Indonesia based on two different convective schemes (MIT and Grell) have been done in this study. The simulations were conducted for two consecutive years between 1998 and 1999 periods for Indonesia. Two different convective schemes were evaluated based on their ability in simulating seasonal and intraseasonal rainfall variability in the region. The modeled seasonal rainfall were analyzed through their comparisons with satellite-based rainfall observation data from TRMM. The results show that the MIT-based rainfall simulation produced higher rainfall mostly over mountainous regions and lower rainfall in some other areas over Indonesia compared to the observation. Differently, the Grell scheme underestimated rainfall over almost all areas in the country. In analysis of monthly rainfall, Grell could describe monsoonal and equatorial pattern of monthly rainfall in Cengkareng and Pontianak station better than MIT. MIT couldn’t describe monsoonal and equatorial pattern of Cengkareng and Pontianak rainfall which are located in low land. Despite its tendency of being more sensitive over mountainous areas, MIT was found to be better in simulating the seasonal cycle of rainfall than Grell. In order to ilustrate intraseasonal variability of rainfall, MJO was used as the case reference. Principal component analysis of TRMM, MIT, and Grell were calculated and analyzed in order to detect MJO phases. This was done by comparing the PC results with RMM Index. The output of MIT and Grell Schemes can well recognize MJO signal by giving higher rainfall value on the MJO events affecting the region. However, it has not known yet which better scheme could be used in ilustrating intraseasonal rainfall variability, because the PCA time series of MIT and Grell still have another cycle beside of MJO cycle. MIT scheme consider to be more dominant in describing intraseasonal rainfall variability based on the higher PCA’s percentage of variant. As a whole of this study, MIT was found better in representing Indonesian Rainfall Variability than Grell. Thus, MIT scheme can be used in other simulations of RegCM4 on Indonesian Climate Studies
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Judul: Trichomonas Gallinae Penyebab Trichomonosis Pada Unggas
Abstrak: Trichomonas gallinae adalah protozoa yang bergerak aktof dengan keempat flagella yang mempunyai layar dan pada salah satu sisinya terdapat membran seperti sirip ikan yang berombak. Spesies dari genus Trichomonas ini mempunyai arti penting pada unggas, karena dapat menyebabkan infeksi pada alat pencernaan bagian atas.
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