Judul: Pemodelan Hubungan Pelanggan dan Perusahaan Menggunakan Rantai Markov
Abstrak: Relationship between company and customers occurs due to marketing of the company products to customers and the transaction between customers and company. In the relationship between company and customers there is a term called recency which represents the number of months since the last transaction of a customer. Recency is assumed to form a Markov chain. Customer lifetime value (CLV) is a present value of future cash flow in customer lifetime transaction. CLV is used to determining the prospects of customer transactions in the future. The purpose of this manuscript is to model customer and company relations, to calculate customer lifetime value (CLV), and to apply the Markov chain model at the Oriflame company. Markov chain model is characterized by the number of states, transition probability matrix, and vector early probability. Through transaction data of the Oriflame customers, a transition probabilities matrix can be estimated using maximum likelihood method. CLV is calculated by Markov decision processes. The results shows that the relationship between the company and customers can be modeled with a Markov chain.
Keyword: recency, Markov chain, customer lifetime value

Judul: Desain Model Prediksi Churn Pelanggan Menggunakan Predictive Analytics Untuk Toko Kopi Modern
Abstrak: In today's competitive world, moving toward customer-oriented markets with increased access to customer's transaction data, identifying a loyal customer, predicting customer attrition, and estimating their lifetime value makes crucial. Since knowledge of customer value provides targeted data for personalized markets, implementing a customer relationship management strategy helps a company identify, segment customers, and create long-term relationships. As a result, they can maintain loyalty and minimize attrition. The goals of this research are: (1) to model a new business process, (2) to predict the customer churn using data mining tools based on CRM, (3) to recommend a fit strategy to prevent churn and maintain the loyalty, and (4) to evaluate the result from customer churn prediction. We used the customer's past transaction data, and it had 8 attributes: customer number, name, gender, handphone number, quantity, recent visit, total spending, and frequent visit. The result was that this system had three stakeholders: customer, management staff, and management staff internal. We conducted the surveys to all the registered customers to get the satisfaction data and continued by RFM analysis, CLV, and clustering based on the customer's past transaction. The result obtained from RFM, CLV, and Clustering predicts the churn using decision tree analysis. As the final result of this research, we obtained 31 rules with 86% accuracy in the model. The marketing strategies are then designed to prevent churn and maintain loyalty.
Keyword: customer relationship management, churn prediction, RFM, CLV analysis, decision tree analysis

Judul: Analisis Struktur Atas Gedung Diploma IPB terhadap Beban Gempa Berdasarkan SNI 03-1726-2002 dan SNI 03-1726-2012
Abstrak: Gedung Diploma IPB masih menggunakan SNI 03-1726-2002 dalam perencanaan strukturnya. SNI tersebut kemudian diubah seiring dengan keluarnya peraturan baru yang termuat dalam SNI 03-1726-2012. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah mengetahui ketahanan struktur atas gedung Diploma IPB terhadap beban gempa ditinjau berdasarkan waktu getar alami dan partisipasi massa, mengetahui besarnya gaya geser dasar seismik, dan membandingkan besarnya simpangan berdasarkan kedua SNI. Partisipasi massa arah X yang dihasilkan yaitu sebesar 0.9417 pada modal ke 9 dan 0.9006 pada modal ke 12 pada arah Y. Kedua nilai tersebut telah memenuhi kedua standar SNI. Waktu getar alami telah memenuhi standar SNI 2002, namun belum memenuhi standar SNI 2012. Gaya geser dasar dinamik yang dihasilkan berdasarkan SNI 2012 sebesar 1599.6606 kN akibat gempa arah X dan 1223.5794 kN akibat gempa arah Y, sedangkan berdasarkan SNI 2002 untuk arah X sebesar 1544.5109 kN dan untuk arah Y sebesar 1544.8304 kN. Simpangan antar lantai telah memenuhi persyaratan kedua standar SNI. Struktur Gedung Diploma IPB telah memiliki kekakuan yang cukup dan terhitung boros, sehingga seharusnya dapat direncanakan dengan lebih hemat biaya.
Keyword: beban gempa, gaya geser dasar, simpangan, struktur atas