Judul: Aproksimasi Total Kerugian Motorcycle Insurance dengan Deductible Menggunakan Simulasi Monte Carlo
Abstrak: Polis asuransi adalah kontrak yang dibuat oleh perusahaan asuransi dengan peserta asuransi. Untuk merancang sebuah polis asuransi perusahaan harus memperkirakan total kerugian yang dialami oleh pemegang polis dan harus ditanggung oleh perusahaan asuransi dalam suatu periode waktu tertentu. Penelitian ini membahas total kerugian dari Motorcycle Insurance. Pemodelan total kerugian dilakukan dengan cara menggabungkan sebaran banyak klaim yang menyebar binomial negatif dan sebaran besar klaim yang menyebar beta-prime. Ketika dua sebaran tersebut digabungkan, akan terbentuk sebuah sebaran baru yang disebut sebaran compound. Dalam penelitian ini digunakan metode simulasi Monte Carlo untuk menentukan sebaran compound. Pada simulasi Monte Carlo ditentukan nilai harapan kerugian agregat tanpa deductible maupun dengan deductible, di mana nilai harapan ini digunakan untuk menentukan nilai Loss Elimination Ratio. Dari perhitungan dapat disimpulkan dengan meningkatnya deductible, Loss Elimination Ratio meningkat dan jumlah premi bersih menurun., An insurance policy is a contract made by an insurance company with an insurance participant. To design an insurance policy the company must estimate the aggregate loss suffered by the policyholder that must be borne by the insurance company within a certain period of time. This research explains the total loss of Motorcycle Insurance. The modeling of aggregate loss is created by compounding the distributions of loss frequency which has negative binomial distribution and distribution of loss severity which has beta-prime distribution. When these two distributions are combined, a new distribution is formed which is called a compound distribution. In this study, the Monte Carlo simulation method was used to determine the compound distribution. In the Monte Carlo simulation, the expected values of aggregate loss without deductible and with deductible are determined. This expected values are used to determine the value of the Loss Elimination Ratio. Based on the calculation, it can be concluded that the increase in deductibles, increase Loss Elimination Ratios, and decrease net premiums.
Keyword: asuransi, deductible, kerugian agregat, Loss Elimination Ratio, simulasi Monte Carlo, aggregate loss, deductible, insurance, Loss Elimination Ratio, Monte Carlo simulation

Judul: Penentuan Sebaran Total Kerugian Asuransi Kendaraan
Abstrak: Kerugian agregat merupakan total kerugian pemegang polis yang harus ditanggung oleh perusahaan asuransi dalam periode waktu tertentu. Kerugian agregat dapat dihitung dengan menentukan sebaran total kerugian pada periode sebelumnya. Karya ilmiah ini menggunakan Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) yaitu metode untuk menghitung sebaran total kerugian dengan mempertimbangkan banyaknya klaim dan besarnya klaim yang dihitung dengan model sebaran compound. Metode rekursif Panjer digunakan untuk mendapatkan model sebaran compound, kemudian diperoleh nilai Value at Risk (VaR) dan Expected Shortfall (ES). Untuk data klaim asuransi kendaraan di Australia periode 2004-2005, diperoleh banyaknya klaim menyebar Zero Truncated binomial negatif dan besarnya klaim menyebar invers Gauss, lognormal, dan Pareto. Untuk menghitung VaR dan ES, sebaran yang paling baik untuk besar klaim adalah sebaran invers Gauss karena paling mendekati VaR dan ES empiris., Aggregate loss is the total loss of the policyholder that must be paid by the insurance company within a certain period of time. Aggregate losses can be calculated by determining the distribution of total losses in the previous period. This scientific work uses the Loss Distribution Approach (LDA), which is a method for calculating the distribution of total losses by considering the number of claims and the amount of claims calculated using the compound distribution model. Panjer recursive method is used to obtain a compound distribution model, and then the Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) values are obtained. For vehicle insurance claims data in Australia for the period 2004-2005, the number of claims have a Zero Truncated negative binomial distribution and the amount of claims have inverse Gaussian, lognormal, and Pareto distribution. To calculate VaR and ES, the best distribution for the amount of claims is the inverse Gaussian distribution because it is closest to the empirical VaR and ES.
Keyword: Expected Shortfall, kerugian agregat, metode rekursif Panjer, , Value at Risk

Judul: Lejeuneaceae Subfamily Ptychanthoideae (Hepaticae) in  West Java
Abstrak: Subfamily Ptychanthoideae of the family Lejeuneaceae (Hepaticae) in West Java is still poorly known. Publications on this subfamily are out of dated and written in the 19th or early of 20th century. The last taxonomic treatment of Ptychanthoideae of West Java was in 1933, many species names have changed since then. Studies on Ptychanthoideae of West Java are urgently needed. Studies on the Ptychanthoideae were based on the specimens collected from West Java. A total number of 361 of specimens deposited in the Herbarium Bogoriense (BO), Herbarium Biotrop (BIOT), Gottingen Herbarium (GOET) and Bangi Herbarium (UKMB) were examined, those are old and several recent specimens collected in West Java. Recent collections were made from Telaga Warna, Ciater, Gunung Halimun Salak National Park, Cibodas Botanical Garden, Bodogol Education Center and Conservation (Gunung Gede Pangrango National Park), University of Indonesia Campus Depok, including several collections from Banten Province. Twenty four species of Lejeuneaceae subfamily Ptychanthoideae are known from West Java, belonging to 8 genera namely Acrolejeunea (Spruce) Schiffn. (2 species), Archilejeunea (Spruce) Schiffn. (1 species), Lopholejeunea (Spruce) Schiffn. (10 species), Mastigolejeunea (Spruce) Schiffn. (3 species), Ptychanthus Nees (1 species), Schiffneriolejeunea Verd. (1 species), Spruceanthus Verd. (2 species) and Thysananthus Lindenb. (4 species). Two new records of Ptychanthoideae: Mastigolejeunea indica Steph. and Thysananthus minor Verdoorn are reported for Java. A determination key to the species is presented including their descriptions and illustrations.
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