Judul: Forecasting the Availability of Sea Catfish as Raw Material for the Salted Fish Industry around Kejawanan Cirebon City
Abstrak: Produksi merupakan kegiatan vital yang ada dalam suatu industri dan bergantung pada bahan baku. Kurangnya informasi mengenai ketersediaan bahan baku ikan manyung menyebabkan industri ikan asin manyung (jambal roti) kesulitan menentukan jumlah produksi yang akan dibuat. Penelitian ini bertujuan mendeskripsikan kondisi umum perikanan manyung di PPN Kejawanan, menentukan model peramalan yang tepat untuk meramalkan jumlah produksi hasil tangkapan ikan manyung, mengestimasi ketersediaan bahan baku ikan manyung yang didaratkan di PPN Kejawanan selama dua tahun kedepan dan menganalisis kebutuhan bahan baku industri ikan asin jambal roti di sekitar PPN Kejawanan. Metode penelitian yang digunakan yaitu metode analisis deskriptif, metode kuantitatif dan metode uji kesalahan peramalan. Estimasi ketersediaan bahan baku ikan manyung di PPN Kejawanan berjumlah 45,26 ton (2020) dan 31,68 ton (2021) dengan rata-rata 38,47 ton per tahun atau 3.205,83 kg per bulan. Jumlah tersebut mencukupi untuk kebutuhan 6 industri ikan asin jambal roti skala kecil yang membutuhkan 216 kg ikan manyung per bulan.
Keyword: availability of sea catfish, forecasting, salted fish industry

Judul: Forecasting Squid Production as Industrial Raw Material at the Indonesian Fishing Port of Muara Angke, Jakarta
Abstrak: Industri pengasinan cumi-cumi adalah salah satu industri pengasinan terbesar di Muara Angke. Dua dari delapan unit saja yang masih aktif produksi karena keterbatasan dan kurangnya perencanaan bahan baku dari pelabuhan. Metode peramalan bahan baku bisa menjadi solusi dalam perencanaan produksi di tahun berikutnya. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendeskripsikan kondisi umum cumi-cumi, menentukan model peramalan yang tepat, dan mengestimasi volume produksi cumi-cumi dan kebutuhannya sebagai bahan baku industri di Muara Angke selama satu tahun kedepan. Analisis deskriptif digunakan dalam menganalisis data yang didapatkan. Analisis Peramalan digunakan untuk perencanaan bahan baku industri pengasinan cumi-cumi. Hasil penelitian didapatkan kondisi PPN Muara Angke didominasi oleh kapal bouke ami dengan persentase 55% dari keseluruhan kapal dan menjadi alat tangkap dominan untuk menangkap cumi-cumi dengan persentase 71%. Hasil penelitian didapatkan metode exponential smoothing alpha 0,7 terpilih karena memiliki nilai error paling kecil yaitu MAPE 22,64 dan MSE 4.626,35. Hasil estimasi peramalan produksi cumi-cumi tahun 2022 di PPN Muara Angke sebesar 2.226,128 ton per bulan. Estimasi produksi yang diperoleh mencukupi kebutuhan 8 industri cumi asin yang memerlukan bahan baku 136,041 ton cumi-cumi tiap bulannya., The squid salting industry is one of the largest salting industries in Muara Angke. Two of the eight units are still active in production due to limitations and a lack of planning for raw materials from the port. The raw material forecasting method can be a solution in production planning in the following year. This study aims to describe the general condition of squid, determine the appropriate forecasting model, and estimate the volume of squid production and its needs as industrial raw materials in Muara Angke for the following year. Descriptive analysis is used in analyzing the data obtained. Forecasting analysis is used for planning raw materials for the squid salting industry. The results showed that the PPN condition of Muara Angke was dominated by bouke ami vessels with a percentage of 55% of all ships and became the dominant fishing gear for catching squid with a percentage of 71%. The results showed that the exponential smoothing alpha method of 0.7 was chosen because it had a minor error value, namely MAPE 22.64 and MSE 4.626.35. The estimated results of forecasting squid production in 2022 at the Muara Angke PPN are 2,226.128 tons per month. The estimated production obtained meets the needs of 8 salted squid industries that require raw materials of 136,041 tons of squid per month.
Keyword: forecasting, Muara Angke, production, salting industry, squid

Judul: Penyelesaian model infeksi HIV pada sel darah Putih (T CD4+) dengan menggunakan metode perturbasi homotopi
Abstrak: Acquired immunodefficiency syndrome (AIDS) is defined as symptoms of human immune system deterioration caused by human immunodefficiency virus (HIV). The virus damages the leucocytes; therefore, once a person is infected by the HIV, his/her immune system will be paralyzed and eventually he/she will not be able to survive from any disease. HIV is transmitted in many ways, such as having unsafe sex, using unsterilized syringe and blood transfusion. Homotopy perturbation method is implemented to give approximate and analytical solutions of nonlinear ordinary differential equation systems as a model for HIV infection of CD4+ T cells. A modification of the homotopy perturbation method (HPM), based on the use of numerical solution, is proposed. Some plots are presented to show the reliability and simplycity of the homotopy perturbation method. The results obtained in this study indicate that the homotopy perturbation method is highly efficient to solve models of HIV infection of cells (T CD4+). Errors resulting from this method is so small that the solution obtained by is very close to the exact solution.
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