Judul: MODEL DINAMIS UNTUK MENJAGA UPAYA MANDIRI BERAS: STUDI KASUS, KABUPATEN KARAWANG, PROVINSI JAWA BARAT
Abstrak: Paddy fields are Indonesia's most important agricultural land use, supporting national food security. Such lands have experienced a massive change in their dynamics, specifically in rice (Oryza Sativa) production home, West Java. Karawang paddy fields notably become the major victim of land-use change and rapid economic growth, development, and population pressure. This study aimed to I) analyse land use/ land cover change, II) Predict the future land-use change in the Karawang Regency, West Java Province, and III) Design/simulate policy scenarios to uphold future rice self-sufficiency policies. The study employed three different methods to meet its objectives. Remote sensing techniques and satellite images were used for investigation across the Karawang Regency. Three kinds of satellite image datasets of Landsat 5 TM, Landsat 8 OLI, and Sentinel 2 from 2009, 2014, and 2019 were analysed. Based on the Markov model, a land change modeller was used to predict conversion in 2031, and PowerSim was used to develop system dynamics to simulate scenarios. The results revealed that land-use change impacted paddy fields conversion significantly. Karawang Regency lost 16,346.77 ha or 8.54 % of its paddy fields throughout the assessment period. Such farmlands declined by 8,639.84 ha (4.51%), 7,706.93 ha (4.02%), and it's expected to be converted by 12,306.75 ha or 6.40 % between 2009 -2014, 2014 to 2019, 2019-2031, respectively. The conversion of paddy fields to build areas, including road infrastructures, is approximately 14,536.21 ha, representing 57.98% of the total paddy fields converted. As a result of build-up area expansion (2014-219) within RTRW and LP2B areas, paddy fields will be reduced by 5,099.68 ha or 5.40% and 3,385.98 ha or 3.28%, respectively. While between 2019-and 2031, they will be reduced by 7,463.88 ha or 7.90 % and 13,913.28 ha or 13.50%, respectively. The highest and lowest conversions will occur in the sub-districts of Banyu Sari and Tegalwaru. Up 95% of the expanded build area will be a converted irrigated paddy field with an area range of 1-99 ha. Only 5% will be rainfed paddy fields exclusively located in the south eastern part of the Regency. The developed system dynamics indicated that the overall Maximum relative errors, coefficient of determination, and mean absolute per cent error of tested variables were 1.33%, 0.760, and 1.49, respectively. Under the Business-as-usual scenario (BAU#), it was found that the population of Karawang will reach 6.1 million people, and the paddy fields will be reduced to only169 a thousand ha by the end of the century. The scenario will result in a reduction of Karawang rice Availability Per Person (APP), surplus (SPs), and Self-sufficiency (SSL) by 66.20, 50.55, and 359%, respectively. Besides that, the Rice demand scenario (SNO#3) indicated the Regency will be out of rice surplus in 2094 and 2085 when the consumption/ demand of rice increases by 80% (SNO#3.3) and 100%(SNO#3.4), respectively. It's been concluded that paddy fields conversion is the main threat that may undermine the future rice supply for Regency and maintain 1.5 million tons of rice surplus. The study recommended that proposed possible interventions should be considered along with the formulation and implementation of upcoming Regional
Keyword: Food self-sufficiency, paddy fields conversion, Google Earth Engine, system dynamics

Judul: Analisis perubahan penggunaan lahan dalam kaitannya dengan keinginan petani untuk mempertahankan lahan pangannya di Kabupaten Karawang
Abstrak: Construction activities and population growth led to increased demand for land, while the availability of land basically unchanged. Conversion of agricultural land into other uses that are not controlled will cause a negative impact in the economic, social and environmental aspects. To overcome these negative impacts requires enormous cost. This study aims to identify the dinamic of land use change in Karawang Regency in 2001, 2006 and 2012, to analyse factors that influence land use change in Karawang, to know determinants of land sustainability of food at farmers' income levels and to identify spatial distribution of the concentration of rice area in Karawang. Data analysis used spatial analysis, binary logistic regression analysis and the G statistic analysis. Analysis of land use change results in 2001-2012 showed that the area of wetland, forest, dryland agriculture and plantations decreased 10,046.8 ha (5.22%), 2,307.8 ha (1.20%), 391.6 ha (0.20%) and 136.1 ha (0.07%), respectively . On the other hand, undeveloped land and bush increased 11,021.8 ha (5.73%), and 1,860.3 ha (0.97%). Extensive water bodies and ponds remain the same in the amount of 263.1 ha (0.14%) and 18,748.4 ha (9.75%) over the period of analysis. In general, factors that increase the chances of changes in land use in Karawang Regency in the period of 2001-2012 are the distance to the center of town, population growth and the growth of the economy. In contrast, growth variables diversity of social facilities, the establishment of regional spatial plans are strictly instrumental decrease the chances of land use change. Determinants significant sustainability of food land are tenure (rental property), the area of land owned, and the percentage contribution of agriculture to meet the needs. In 2001 there were four significant sub-districts have a large and assamble plot of land that Cibuaya, Pedes, Jayakerta and Cilebar. In 2006 and 2012 convergence with large plot only in two Kecamatan Pedes and Cibuaya. Meanwhile in the three periods of the same small plot consistently spread in the area of South Karawang includes, Pangkalan, Ciampel, Telukjambe Timur, Tegalwaru, and Klari
Keyword: paddy field sustainability., land use change, Karawang Regency, G statistics, binary logistic regression

Judul: Embriogenesis ikan buta (Astyanax fasciatus)
Abstrak: Ikan buta Astyanax fasciatus adalah spesies ikan unik dari famili Characidae yang menempati perairan dalam gua di Wilayah La Cueva Chica-San Luis Potasi-Mexico. Ikan ini memiliki mata yang tereduksi (Blind Cavefish) dan warna kulit merah muda, pucat serta mengkilap.
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