Judul: The impact of oil fuel price subsidy policy on economic performance and poverty in Indonesia
Abstrak: The objectives of this study were to analyze the factors that influence the supply and demand of oil fuel and to analyze the impact of oil fuel price subsidy policy on economic performance, poverty, and welfare in Indonesia. A simultaneous econometric model of Indonesia oil fuel price subsidy was estimated using a two stage least squares (2SLS) method and SYSLIN procedure for the data set period of 1986-2006. The forecast simulation was set for the period 2010- 2014 with NEWTON method and SIMNLIN procedure. The supply of oil fuel, which was represented by the amount imported, was influenced negatively by its world price and positively by its consumption, consumen price index, and its lag endogenous. The demand for oil fuel was influenced negatively by its retail price and positively by its consumption, its substitutes price, and its lag endogenous. The price subsidy of oil fuel was influenced positively by its world price, domestic exchange rate, government domestic revenue, and its lag endogenous. The price subsidy of oil fuel, except LPG, was elastic against world price of crude oil and domestic exchange rate in the short and long run. The forecast simulation of increases of world crude oil price was resulted in the increase of retail oil fuel price, decreasing economic growth, and increasing the inflation and poverty rate. The government policy to decrease oil fuel subsidy will result in deteriorating the economic performance, poverty alleviation program, and also welfare will be in large deficit. The less severe result happen when government applied kerosene conversion program to LPG. The deteriorating impact of the last two simulation were likely caused by the drop of government expenditure and the negative economic growth altogether. In such developing country like Indonesia, the role of government expenditure was central and important in boosting the economic. Such hypothesis was proven when oil fuel subsidy decreases and the level of government expenditure was kept constant, the result was surprisingly positive to economic performance and poverty alleviation program, even though the sustainable fiscal policy will be rather violated. To overcome the negative impact of the decreasing of oil fuel price subsidy and kerosene conversion program to LPG, government should kept the fiscal budget constant through budget reallocation strategy. By doing this, there were budget available for establishing fiscal space or putting more fund to strategic and most important development program including compensation program for the poor as well as poverty alleviation programs.
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Judul: Analisis Pengaruh Pengurangan Subsidi Bahan Bakar Minyak (BBM) terhadap Kemiskinan di Indonesia
Abstrak: Subsidy fuel price (BBM) in Indonesia has been implementated since 1970’s, along with increasing of population and economic growth have impacted directly to total energy demand. It increased a budget allocated of subsidy fuel price in government expenditure for years and forced the government to reduced it repeatedly. The aim of this study is to analyse impact of decreasing subsidy fuel price to poverty in Indonesia. This study used simultaneous equation model with SLS 2 method (Two Stage Least Square Method) and secondary data time series with observation period ranging from 1983-2011. Results of research showed that if subsidy fuel price was reduced by 10%, it would increased 9.046% of inflation, 0.097% of poverty population, and 0.220% unemployeement. Also Gross Domestic Product would decreased by 0.093%.
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Judul: Trichomonas Gallinae Penyebab Trichomonosis Pada Unggas
Abstrak: Trichomonas gallinae adalah protozoa yang bergerak aktof dengan keempat flagella yang mempunyai layar dan pada salah satu sisinya terdapat membran seperti sirip ikan yang berombak. Spesies dari genus Trichomonas ini mempunyai arti penting pada unggas, karena dapat menyebabkan infeksi pada alat pencernaan bagian atas.
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