Judul: A Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Household Consumption
Abstrak: Model Faktor Dinamis (MFD) merupakan perkembangan dari analisis deret waktu yang digunakan untuk melakukan peramalan jarak dekat atau nowcasting. Model ini dapat menghubungkan peubah penjelas yang berfrekuensi bulanan dengan peubah respon yang berfrekuensi kuartalan. MFD telah banyak digunakan di bidang ekonomi karena dapat menghubungkan peubah ekonomi yang diamati dalam kurun waktu yang berbeda. Kondisi ekonomi suatu negara dapat tercemin dari Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) negara tersebut. Konsumsi merupakan salah satu komponen penting dalam PDB karena proporsinya terhadap PDB yang besar. Salah satu kegiatan ekonomi rumah tangga untuk memenuhi berbagai kebutuhan barang dan jasa disebut sebagai konsumsi rumah tangga. Informasi konsumsi rumah tangga yang dibutuhkan untuk membuat kebijakan ekonomi kerap kali tersedia dengan jeda yang cukup lama. Oleh sebab itu, penelitian ini bertujuan meramalkan konsumsi rumah tangga menggunakan Model Faktor Dinamis (MFD). Rotasi faktor yang digunakan adalah rotasi varimax dan quartimax. Berdasarkan hasil yang diperoleh, penggunaan rotasi faktor berguna untuk menghasilkan nilai ramalan yang lebih stabil. Hasil menunjukan bahwa baik rotasi varimax maupun rotasi quartimax menghasilkan MFD dengan kemampuan untuk meramalkan konsumsi rumah tangga dengan baik. Diperkirakan konsumsi rumah tangga akan menurun Rp1.300.000.000.000.000,00 dan dilanjutkan dengan kenaikan pada awal tahun 2021 dengan angka sekitar Rp1.850.000.000.000.000,00., The Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) is an outgrowth of the time series analysis which is used to forecast within a very short period in the future known as nowcasting. This model can be used to link between monthly explanatory variables and a response variable which is measured quarterly. DFM has been widely used in economics because it can link economic variables observed in different time periods. The economic condition of a country can be reflected in the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Consumption is an important component in the GDP because of its large proportion to GDP. One of the household economic activities to fulfill various needs for goods and services is known as household consumption. Information on household consumption needed to make economic policy is often available with considerable lag. Therefore, this study aims to predict household consumption using the Dynamic Factor Model (DFM). The factor rotations used in this analysis are varimax and quartimax rotation. Based on the results obtained, the use of factor rotation can produce a more stable forecast value. The results showed that both varimax rotation and quartimax rotation produce DFM with the ability to predict household consumption well with similar precision. It is estimated that household consumption will decrease by around Rp1.300.000.000.000.000,00 and increase in the beginning of 2021 by around Rp1.850.000.000.000.000,00.
Keyword: dynamic factor model, household consumption, nowcasting

Judul: The Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Household Consumption in Indonesia: A Provincial Panel Study from 2015-2023
Abstrak: Konsumsi rumah tangga menjadi komponen utama dalam PDB Indonesia yang memainkan peran penting dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi. Namun, distribusinya masih tidak merata di seluruh wilayah. Konsumsi rumah tangga cenderung terpusat di Pulau Jawa, sementara wilayah timur mengalami tingkat konsumsi yang lebih rendah. Meskipun pemerintah telah melakukan upaya dengan berbagai kebijakan di bidang moneter maupun fiskal, konsumsi rumah tangga di Indonesia masih belum merata dengan baik. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis kondisi serta pengaruh kebijakan moneter dan fiskal terhadap konsumsi rumah tangga di Indonesia. Analisis tersebut dilakukan menggunakan metode deskriptif kualitatif dan regresi data panel pendekatan dengan Fixed Effect Model (FEM) dengan objek penelitian berupa 34 provinsi di Indonesia dan rentang waktu dari tahun 2015 sampai 2023. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa konsumsi rumah tangga bervariasi antarwilayah, DKI Jakarta dan Jawa Barat menjadi provinsi dengan konsumsi rumah tangga terbesar, sedangkan Maluku dan Papua Barat menjadi provinsi dengan konsumsi rumah tangga terendah. Kebijakan moneter melalui peningkatan jumlah uang beredar dan penurunan suku bunga kredit serta kebijakan fiskal dengan peningkatan pengeluaran pemerintah berpengaruh signifikan terhadap konsumsi rumah tangga di Indonesia., Household consumption is a major component of Indonesia's GDP, playing a crucial role in driving economic growth. However, its distribution remains uneven across regions. Household consumption tends to be concentrated in Java Island, while eastern regions experience lower consumption levels. Despite government efforts through various monetary and fiscal policies, household consumption levels in Indonesia have yet to be evenly distributed. This research aims to analyze the conditions and the influence of monetary and fiscal policies on household consumption in Indonesia. The analysis is conducted using a qualitative descriptive method and a panel data regression approach with the Fixed Effect Model (FEM), focusing on 34 provinces in Indonesia from 2015 to 2023. The results show that household consumption varies among regions, with DKI Jakarta and West Java being the provinces with the highest household consumption, while Maluku and West Papua have the lowest. Monetary policies, such as increasing the money supply and lowering credit interest rates, along with fiscal policies, such as increasing government spending, significantly impact household consumption in Indonesia.
Keyword: fiscal policy, monetary policy, household consumption, panel  data regression

Judul: Posisi Filogenetik Kura-Kura Carettochelys Insculpta  (Reptillia: Testudinata)
Abstrak: Carettochelys insculpta is an endemic freshwater turtle of southern Papua and northern Australia. Phylogenetic position of this turtle is remain unresolved until now. Most of the research conducted show close relationships of C. insculpta and members of Trionychidae family. However, some of the research show distance between C. insculpta and members of Trionychidae family. This research is conducted to analyze phylogenetic relationship between C. insculpta and other members of Testudinata using 12S rRNA, 16S rRNA, and both gene as markers. DNA samples were obtained from three different organisms of C. insculpta. Two species used as outgroups were Alligator mississippiensis and Iguana iguana. Phylogenetic analysis was carried out using Neighbor-Joining method with Felsenstein 1981 (F81) modeltest. A polytomy tree of Testudinata was produced by using 12S rRNA gene. However, analysis using 16S rRNA and both genes as markers confirmed that C. insculpta was located between the Chelonidae and the Trionychidae family.
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