Judul: Statistics concept as neural network training stopping criteria to overcome limited data (study case in prediction of palm oil based- Surfactant-MESA surface tension)
Abstrak: There exist situations such as marine ecology where artificial neural network (ANN) implementation must cope with scarce data. Efforts to add more data in this sort of field will most likely be overlooked for being expensive and time consuming. Cross-validation comes across the opportunity of still using ANN to survive this poor data condition while not compromising its generalization. This paper proposed prediction output interval as stopping-criteria employed in 5-fold validation and demonstrated its performance when selecting best hidden layer number of neurons to be used for surfactant-MESA surface tension prediction based on only ten data pairs. Output interval building, derived from statistics concept, was gaining from the fact that there were two experiment repetitions from the case which could be generalized to cases with two measurement repetitions. Repetitions are expected to produce difference. A 95% confidence interval to estimate mean from these difference samples was then used to create output interval for ANN training. Backpropagation ANN with this added stopping criterion successfully gave 1.83 x 10-3 cross-validation MSE comparable to 2.72 x 10-3 of overfitted result, using only epoch and gradient of training MSE as stopping criteria. A slight variation on the width of the output interval, using sum of sample mean and standard deviation, also gave 3.04 x 10-4 MSE as best results. These intervals were found to perform well when set as constants, drawn from parametric statistical figures, around two times standard deviation of surface tension measurement differences from the experiment repetitions.
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Judul: Penerapan Backpropagation Neural Network Untuk Peramalan Penjualan Produk Susu
Abstrak: Milk product developed very rapidly nowadays. This is so many brand comes up to the market and makes competition between those products harder than before. Therefore each company must have analytical plan to predict how many product should be produced in order to avoid over product or lack of product and in order to keep distribution process run smoothly. Artificial neural network is one of machinal learning approach that can be used to solve so many problems primarily a complex problem than can not be modeled. Forecasting data time series is one of type of problem that can be solved by this approach. The objective of this research is to forecast milk product sale in KPBS Pangalengan, Bandung. This research consist of five steps such as problem identification, data collection and field information, preprocessing, neural network model, and postprocessing. This research use implementation of artificial neural network forecasting to predict milk product variant cup flavor in KPBS, Pangalengan Bandung. Artificial neural network consist of some composition data of milk product sale during January 2008-Juni 2010 that already trained based on work principle of human brain. Model of artificial neural network that used is this research is backpropagation neural network with two hidden layer and one output. Artificial neural network with one layer has a restriction in pattern recognition. This restriction can be solved by adding one or some hidden layer between input and output layer. Backpropagation is a model of artificial neural network with plural layer. Like other artificial neural network, backpropagation trains the network to balance its capability to recognize pattern and to give appropriate response to input pattern that similar to the pattern that used in training session. After training and examination, validation was done to evaluate the performance of artificial neural network in recognizing actual data pattern and the result shows that 4 data (67%) is appropriate to the target (actual data) and 2 data (33%) is not appropriate. This result shows that error in examination process is low. Mean square error (MSE) of validation process is 0.0286. After further examination bigger data training, MSE changed to 0.083. This MSE is bigger than the previous result. In addition, artificial neural network in this further research shows only 52% data that appropriate with target and 48% is not appropriate with real data. This result is affected by some factors. One of them is data that used in training and examination phase is random data between maximum level and minimum level of each attribute. The result shows that implementation of artificial neural network can help industrial sector to anticipate raw material and product stock accurately.
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Judul: Psittacosis Sebagai Zoonosis Penting Yang Berasal Dari Burung
Abstrak: Psittacosis atau ornithosis adalah penyakit menular dari burung kepada manusia. Agens penyebab psittacosis termasuk ke dalam virus psittacosis-lymphogranuloma venereum group yang disebut Chlamydia psittaci. C. psittaci hanya dapat berkembang biak di dalam jaringan hidup tetapi peka terhadap antibiotik. Penyebaran penyakit ini sangat luas, terdapat hampir di seluruh dunia. Di Indonesia penyakit ini belum pernah di diagnosa, tetapi mengingat terdapat demikian banyaknya jenis burung maka diperkirakan psittacosis ini sudah ada. Kasus pada manusia pertamakali ditemukan oleh Ritter pada tahun 1879, di Eropa. Waktu itu dikenal sebagai pneumotyphus. Chlamydia psittaci tidak hanya sebagai penyebab infeksi pada burung, juga bisa menyebabkan infeksi pada mamalia diantaranya sapi, kerbau, kambing, domba, babi dan kucing. Pada kucing dikenal sebagai feline pneumonitis. Pada domba atau kambing mengakibatkan enzootic abortion. Pada burung, kalkun merupakan unggas paling rentan diikuti oleh burung psittacine dan burung lain di luar famili psittacidae. Virulensinyapun berbeda-beda. Yang berasal dari kalkun bervirulensi tinggi, sedangkan yang berasal dari burung merpati bisa bervirulensi tinggi bisa juga bervirulensi rendah. Penularan terjadi melalui kontak langsung maupun ti- dak langsung. Penularan melalui telur tidak terjadi. Umumnya penyakit ini memperlihatkan gejala klinis berupa deman, lesu, lemah, anorexia, kurus, diarrhea ber- warna kekuningan, discharge dari mata dan hidung, conjunc- tivitis. Gejala khas pada kalkun adalah istirahat dengan sternum sebagai dasarnya, karena adanya tekanan dari bagian perut yang sakit. Sedangkan pada manusia memperlihatkan adanya demam, kadang-kadang merasa dingin, lesu, sakit kepala yang hebat, sakit pada bagian belakang badan dan photophobia…dst
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