Judul: Early warning system for supply crisis management of subsidized fertilizers distribution for rice farmers (Case Study in Banyumas, Central Java)
Abstrak: Fertilizer supply crisis in Indonesia occur almost every year. This crisis can be prevented by early detection before the crisis situation occurred. Preventive action would be much better than remedial action. In this research, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based decision support for supply crisis of subsidized fertilizer distribution was developed. The Early Warning detection was developed with backpropagation (BP) learning’s methods. The constructing of the data’s input for ANN based on the fundamental parameters of supply crisis of subsidized fertilizer by using Exponential Comparation Method (ECM) and expert’s judgments with Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), consisting of the critical factor causing supply crisis of subsidized fertilizer, so this system be able to assess of intensity of the crisis with more fast, effective and efficient.Based on the “trial and error” test of ANN’s training process, the best network performance for BP learning’s method was obtained. The best network performance for BP was showed by the Mean Square Error (MSE) score of 0.00000000531 (5.31.10-9) at the 38th epoch, when the system used sigmoid bipolar for hidden layer and linear’s activation function for output neuron, Levenberg-Marquadt’s algorithm training, the momentum score was 0.05, the learning rate score was 0.05, and the minimum error was 0.0000005 with the network architecture of [9 60 30 1], that is, 9 neurons in an input layer, 60 neurons in a first hidden layer, 30 neurons in a second hidden layer and 1 neuron in an output layer. The BP was trained with 66 actual data and tested with 15 actual data, with 87% accuracy rate. From the test shows that the network has been able to recognize patterns of crisis. To get the improved accuracy of detection it is recommended for additional training with the latest data.
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Judul: Model design of intelligent decision support system for rice supply chain System in DKI Jakarta province
Abstrak: DKI Jakarta is the region which has a very large population but it is not supported directly by rice field area that can meet the needs of rice for its population. Cipinang rice market center (PIBC) managed by PT. Food Station Tjipinang Jaya (FSTJ) is expected to be a party that can manage and control the rice for food security, especially in the Jakarta area. There are several important aspects to be considered by FSTJ in regulating and controlling food security. These aspects are the supply of rice, rice price, rice supplier selection, transportation and distribution aspects of rice as well as the performance aspect of the rice supply chain. The purpose of this study was to develop a model of intelligent decision support system for rice supply chain that covers all these aspects effectively and efficiently. There were several methods used in this study. Artificial neural network was used to analyze aspects of the supply and price of rice, TOPSIS was used to analyze the rice suppliers selection, simulated annealing was used to analyze the distribution and transportation of rice and fuzzy inference system was used to analyze the performance of the rice supply chain. Analysis results showed that the accuracy of forecasting models to forecast the supply of rice and to forecast rice prices have reached more than 90 percent. Rice supplier selection model is effectively able to sort the suppliers of rice based on predetermined criteria. Transportation and distribution model has effectively been able to make the shortest route to distribute the rice. This model also has been able to make the sequence assignment of vehicles to deliver the rice to its customers. Finally, the rice supply chain performance model also effectively has been able to measure the performance of supply chain that accommodates the input factors. According to the results of analysis and experts opinion, there were advantages and disadvantages of the model produced, but they can be verified and they were also valid.
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Judul: Trichomonas Gallinae Penyebab Trichomonosis Pada Unggas
Abstrak: Trichomonas gallinae adalah protozoa yang bergerak aktof dengan keempat flagella yang mempunyai layar dan pada salah satu sisinya terdapat membran seperti sirip ikan yang berombak. Spesies dari genus Trichomonas ini mempunyai arti penting pada unggas, karena dapat menyebabkan infeksi pada alat pencernaan bagian atas.
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