Judul: Pemodelan Manajemen Risiko Rantai Pasok di
Agroindustri Pati Sagu
Abstrak: The supply chain system is increasingly exposed to various risks that may interrupt product, fund, and information flows among supply chain parties. Those supply chain risks (SCRs) may contribute to losses for the actors of the supply chain. In response, the supply chain risk management (SCRM) framework is employed to manage SCRs effectively. Sago is a strategic commodity in Indonesia as the largest sago producer in the world. However, the sago starch agro-industry encounter crucial issues, including supply reliability, quality consistency, and price. These issues were related to the existing risks across the sago starch supply chain. This research aims to develop an SCRM model for the sago starch agro-industry. Specifically, it has achieved three objectives; (1) identification of risks in the sago starch supply chain, (2) modelling of uncertain and interdependent SCRs in the sago starch agro-industry, and (3) modelling of coordination strategy with risk-sharing schemes for the sago starch supply chain. This research took a case study of the sago starch agro-industry supply chain in Kepulauan Meranti Regency, Riau Province, as the largest sago starch producer in Indonesia. It focused on investigating the supply chain of dried sago starch. Risk identification is the first stage of the SCRM framework as the basis for the risk assessment and mitigation stages. In this case, the system characteristics of the sago starch supply chain were identified and analyzed. The IPO (input-process-output) of the investigated system was described, including the actor's requirements. Furthermore, risk identification was started with literature reviews to identify the possible risks in the sago starch supply chain. Next, the risk candidates were confirmed to the related industry experts. Finally, the relevant SCRs were listed and classified into supply, operation, logistics, demand, price-financial, environmental, and external risks. The risk assessment stage focused on evaluating the SCR impacts on the performance of the sago starch agro-industry. The uncertainty and interdependency of SCRs were modelled into the Bayesian network (BN), a class of a probabilistic graph model. In its application, the risk and performance variables were selected to be modelled. The expert knowledge was utilized to generate the dataset through Monte Carlo simulations and rule bases. The directed acyclic graph (DAG) of the BN structure is constructed by applying hybrid methods. The Hill-climbing algorithm, a search and score-based method, was applied to learn datasets given to prior knowledge (rule of links among variables. In the next stage, Bayesian inference was applied to risk scenarios with sensitivity analysis to examine the impact strength of SCRs on the performance measures. The results of the simulation indicated that the natural and external-risk factors, supply and quality of logs and water, inbound and outbound-logistics factors might contribute to the industry performance. This research also recommended mitigation strategies to eliminate or at least minimize the adverse SCR impacts. Finally, risk mitigation stage, this research developed the coordination models with risk-sharing schemes to mitigate uncertain supply risks between sago collector (supplier) and sago mill (agro-industry). The system identification and literature review were carried as the basis for developing those coordination models. The developed models include non-risk sharing (NRS), undersupply
Keyword: Bayesian network, modelling, risk-sharing, sago starch agro-industry, supply chain risks, supply chain risk management

Judul: Analisis Manajemen Rantai Pasok Buah Manggis dengan Metode Analytic Network Process di PT Agung Mustika Selaras, Jawa Barat
Abstrak: Supply chain management (SCM) of mangosteen is generally different with supply chain management of manufacturing products because of the mangosteen rots very quickly, its availability is depend on the season, its various shape, size and voluminous also which is difficult to handle it. The high complexity of the supply chain network and the characteristics of the mangosteen make supply chain management of mangosteen are more vulnerable to the risk of losses that have not been able to provide profit improvements for stakeholder of the mangosteen supply chain. In order to solve various risk of mangosteen supply chain is needed supply chain risk management (SCRM) as one of efforts to build the robust supply chain management. The purpose of this research were ; (1) to identify activities of mangosteen SCM, (2) to identify source and kind of risks of mangosteen SCM, (3) to analyze the potential risks of mangosteen SCM losses, (4) to analyze alternative solutions and other risk factors to improve the ability of supply chain risk management (5) to design mangosteen SCRM for improving continuously. Methods used consist of descriptive qualitative method, to identify source of risk assessment and risk factors that affect on mangosteen supply chain management and using analytic network process method, to analyze the source and kind of risk factors that affect on increasing competency of SCRM. Data input were obtained from opinion of some experts in mangosteen supply chain through a questionnaire filling. There are three (3) experts that can be represented as experts in mangosteen supply chain management; they are Manager of KBU Al-Ihsan, Operational Manager of PT Agung Mustika Selaras and Head of Center for Tropical Fruit Studies, Bogor Agricultural University. The results of ANP assessment that the types of risk were the uncertainty of the price and demand in market risk as source risk and the type of risk of the uncertainty quality and weather as production risk. Results of the ANP to improve supply chain risk management obtained priority scale were operational key process (OKP), organizational performance factor (OPF), operational process cycle (OPC) and risk operational practices (ROP). In order to develop the robust SCM through the development of sustainable mangosteen SCRM, thus risk control was done by weakening and separating the risk to increase product management, supply management and information management which prioritized on procurement and production of the mangosteen.
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Judul: Infeksi Virus Parainfluenza Pada Anjing
Abstrak: Virus parainfluenza anjing termasuk famili Paramyxoviridae, berbentuk pleomorf dengan ukuran bervariasi (bergaris tengah antara 100-500 nm), berpembungkus peka ether, berisi genom RNA dan secara serologis mempunyai kesamaan dengan virus SV-5 kera; dikenak sebagai salah satu kausa penting dari sindrom "kennel cough". Infeksinya dapat mengenai anjing semua umur yang belum pernah terinfeksi atau mendapatkan vaksinasi mengakibatkan gejala klinis ringan yang terbatas pada traktus respirasi atu infeksi yang secara klinis tidak memperlihatkan gejala nyata. Gejala klinis yang nampak setelah masa inkubasi (1-5 hari) terlewati berupa batuk yang tidak berat selama beberapa hari, berbagai tingkat tonsilitis dan pharyngitis dan kadang-kadang ditemukan kenaikan temperatur rektal antara 1-2 derajat C dari temperatur normal rat-rata. Anjing terinfeksi mengandung virus pada traktus respirasi bagian atas dan bawah serta limfonoduli sampai hari ke 9 setelah infeksi. Penyebaran virus antar anjing terjadi secara aerogen.
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