Judul: Application of the Black-Scholes Equation to estimate the Exchange Rate of the Dollar to Rupiah Using the Runge-Kutta Method
Abstrak: Nilai tukar atau kurs merupakan nilai suatu mata uang negara domestik terhadap nilai mata uang negara asing lainnya. Nilai tukar mata uang terdapat dua jenis, yaitu nilai tukar jual dan nilai tukar beli. Perkiraan nilai tukar dolar terhadap rupiah dapat didekati dengan persamaan Black-Scholes. Tujuan utama penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui prediksi nilai tukar dolar terhadap rupiah dengan menggunakan persamaan Black-Scholes tersebut. Parameter-parameter yang terdapat pada persamaan Black-Scholes dianalogikan ke dalam parameter parameter ekonomi yang diasumsikan sebagai faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi pergerakan nilai tukar. Faktor-faktor tersebut antara lain: tingkat inflasi, suku bunga, volatilitas, rata-rata return nilai tukar dan Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB). Hasil prediksi nilai tukar dolar terhadap rupiah dari persamaan Black-Sholes yang diselesaikan menggunakan metode runge-kutta orde empat tersebut menghasilkan nilai Mean Absolute Persentase Error (MAPE) sebesar 1,1% untuk nilai tukar jual dan 1,1% untuk nilai tukar beli., The exchange rate is the value of a domestic currency to other foreign currencies. There are two types of currency exchange rates, namely the selling exchange rate, and the buying exchange rate. The estimation of the exchange rate of the dollar to rupiah can be approximated by the Black-Scholes equation. The main objective of this study is to determine the prediction of the exchange rate of the dollar to rupiah using the Black-Scholes equation. The parameters contained in the Black-Scholes equation are analogous to economic parameters which are assumed to be factors that influence exchange rate movements. These factors include inflation rates, interest rates, volatility, average exchange rate returns, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The prediction results of the dollar exchange rate against the rupiah from the Black-Sholes equation which was solved using the fourth-order Runge Kutta method resulted in a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 1.1% for the selling exchange rate and 1.1% for the buying exchange rate.
Keyword: Black-Scholes, buying rates, selling rates, fourth-order Runge Kutta

Judul: Peramalan Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap Dolar Amerika dengan Pendekatan Analisis Regresi dan ARIMA
Abstrak: Nilai tukar merupakan harga mata uang satu negara yang dinyatakan dalam mata uang negara lain. Nilai tukar berfluktuatif sehingga perlu dilakukan peramalan agar dapat membantu pelaku ekonomi dalam membuat keputusan yang tepat. Fluktuasi nilai tukar dipengaruhi oleh faktor-faktor makroekonomi, seperti inflasi dan jumlah uang beredar. Pengaruh faktor-faktor makroekonomi terhadap nilai tukar dapat dimodelkan dengan regresi linear berganda. Parameter model regresi diestimasi menggunakan metode Ordinary Least Square (OLS). Pada model regresi linear berganda terdapat asumsi-asumsi klasik yang harus dipenuhi. Apabila terjadi korelasi antara residual ke-t dengan residual ke-(t-1), dikatakan residual model mengalami autokorelasi. Dalam karya ilmiah ini, digunakan metode Cochrane-Orcutt untuk mengatasi pelanggaran asumsi tidak adanya autokorelasi pada residual model. Selain faktor makroekonomi, fluktuasi nilai tukar juga dipengaruhi oleh nilai tukar pada periode sebelumnya. Pada karya ilmiah ini dilakukan peramalan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS menggunakan metode regresi linear dan ARIMA. Setelah itu, akan dilakukan perbandingan hasil ramalan menggunakan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Hasil peramalan menunjukkan bahwa metode regresi linear memiliki tingkat keakuratan yang lebih baik dibandingkan dengan model ARIMA karena memiliki nilai MAPE yang lebih kecil., Exchange rate is the price of one country’s currency which is expressed in other country’s currency. The exchange rate is volatile so it is necessary to forecast in order to assist economic actors in making the right decisions. Exchange rate fluctuations are influenced by macroeconomic factors such as inflation and money supply. The effect of macroeconomic factors on the exchange rate can be estimated using multiple linear regression. The regression parameters are estimated using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. There are classical assumptions that must be satisfied in multiple linear regression. If there is correlation between the (t)-th residual and the (t-1)-th residual then the residual model has autocorrelation. In this study, the Cochrane-Orcutt method is used to overcome the violation of assumption that there is no autocorrelation in the residual model. The exchange rate fluctuations are also influenced by exchange rate in previous period. In this study, the exchange rate is forecasted using linear regression and ARIMA. Then, their accuracy are compared by evaluating Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The forecasting results showed that linear regression has a better accuracy rate than ARIMA model because it has a smaller MAPE value.
Keyword: ARIMA, Cochrane-Orcutt, exchange rate, linear regression

Judul: Production of Nanocellulose- Polyvinyl Alcohol- Alginate Based Filaments
Abstrak: Oil palm empty fruit bunches (OPEFBs) are solid waste that are produced from crude palm oil extraction. Generally, it contains around 41-46.5% of cellulose, 25.3-33.8% of hemicellulose, and 27.6-32.5% of lignin (Suriyani 2009). Nanocellulose (NC) was isolated from OPEFBs through several treatments, including delignification, bleaching, ultrafine grinding, and ultrasonication. The obtained nanocellulose was processed further into filaments by mixing with sodium alginate and polyvinyl alcohol (PVA). In this project, nanocellulose- PVA- alginate based filaments were produced by wet spinning method with CaCl2 as coagulant solvent. The effect of several formulations and CaCl2 concentration on the morphological, mechanical, and thermal properties of filaments were observed. The results showed that the increasing of NC concentration produced filaments that have better thermal properties and higher crystallinity, but the morphology of filament surface become rougher. The increasing of NC concentration up to 7% also increased the filament mechanical properties. Meanwhile, the increasing of CaCl2 concentration produced filaments that have better thermal properties, smoother surface, and higher crystallinity (up to 10% CaCl2), but with decreasing of mechanical properties (tensile strength) due to some cracks that occured on the surface of filaments with 13% of CaCl2.
Keyword: coagulant solvent, filaments, nanocellulose, oil palm empty fruit bunches, wet spinning