Judul: Model Strategi Transformasi Elpiji Bersubsidi di Indonesia
Abstrak: Indonesia merupakan salah satu negara dengan jumlah penduduk terbesar di dunia, hal ini berimplikasi pada tingginya kebutuhan konsumsi energi. LPG merupakan salah satu energi terpenting yang dikonsumsi oleh sebagian besar masyarakat Indonesia. Program konversi LPG sejak 2007 untuk masyarakat miskin di Indonesia diberikan dalam bentuk subsidi. LPG bersubsidi disediakan untuk keluarga miskin, usaha kecil, nelayan miskin, dan petani miskin. Penelitian ini dilatarbelakangi oleh adanya gap antara harga patokan dan harga jual eceran yang cukup besar sehingga menyebabkan beban subsidi terus meningkat dari tahun ke tahun. Kedua, adanya pergeseran konsumsi LPG non-subsidi ke LPG bersubsidi yang semakin meningkat dari tahun ke tahun. Ketiga, bahwa menurut hasil survei sosial ekonomi nasional (susenas) tahun 2020, hanya 36% masyarakat miskin yang menikmati LPG bersubsidi, sedangkan 40% LPG bersubsidi justru dinikmati oleh mereka dari golongan mampu. Latar belakang keempat adalah 72% LPG diperoleh dari impor pada tahun 2020 sehingga jika konsumsi LPG tidak dikendalikan akan terus menyebabkan defisit neraca perdagangan. Tidak ada strategi jalan keluar yang ditetapkan untuk mengatasi peningkatan belanja pemerintah untuk LPG bersubsidi yang menggantikan minyak tanah bersubsidi yang diberlakukan sejak tahun 2007. Kelompok ekonomi mampu masih mendapatkan manfaat dari program subsidi LPG. Sosialisasi pemerintah melalui media elektronik dan pemberian stempel pada tabung LPG bersubsidi yang sudah dilakukan tidak dapat menghalangi kalangan masyarakat mampu dalam membeli LPG bersubsidi. Sistem terbuka yang sekarang ini diimplementasikan memiliki kelemahan, yaitu (1) masyarakat mampu dapat membeli LPG bersubsidi, (2) terjadinya kebocoran pada jalur rantai pasok, (3) terjadinya kelangkaan LPG sehingga harga LPG bersubsidi dan non-subsidi menjadi mahal di beberapa daerah di Indonesia, khususnya daerah terpencil dan kawasan timur Indonesia. Sejalan dengan hal tersebut maka diusulkan model transformasi direct transfer dan closed distribution untuk mengatasi masalah tersebut. Model direct transfer adalah model transformasi yang menghilangkan harga LPG bersubsidi dan menggantinya dengan harga pasar dengan memberikan kompensasi bagi masyarakat penerima manfaat. Model closed distribution adalah model transformasi dimana dalam memperoleh LPG bersubsidi, masyarakat penerima manfaat harus menunjukkan kartu identitas berupa KTP/NIK. Sebelum merumuskan model transformasi, perlu diidentifikasi terlebih dahulu variabel-variabel makro yang dapat memengaruhi harga LPG serta faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi kemiskinan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi hubungan antar variabel makro yang dapat memengaruhi harga LPG dan kemiskinan dengan menggunakan metode kuantitatif vector autoregression (VAR) dan vector error correction model (VECM) serta merumuskan model transformasinya. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa tingkat inflasi berpengaruh signifikan terhadap harga LPG. Harga gas dunia juga berpengaruh signifikan terhadap harga LPG. Hasil analisis juga menunjukkan bahwa variabel makro harga gas dunia, produk domestik bruto dan inflasi memiliki pengaruh positif (+) dengan harga LPG. Sedangkan harga minyak dunia dan nilai tukar dollar terhadap rupiah berpengaruh negatif (-) terhadap harga LPG. Pengangguran dan konsumsi berpengaruh positif (+) terhadap kemiskinan, sedangkan tingkat pendidikan berpengaruh negatif (-) terhadap kemiskinan. Harga LPG berpengaruh positif (+) terhadap kemiskinan dan kemiskinan memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap harga LPG. Kompensasi minimal sebesar Rp52.000,00 per bulan atas penghapusan subsidi LPG akan menjaga masyarakat rentan miskin tetap berada di atas garis kemiskinan. Angka tersebut berasal dari jumlah berat elpiji (kg) dikali kuota elpiji dikali selisih harga patokan dengan harga eceran elpiji (rupiah/kg). Model closed distribution dan model direct
Keyword: closed distribution, direct transfer, interpretative structural modeling, liquid petroleum gas, subsidi

Judul: The impact of oil fuel price subsidy policy on economic performance and poverty in Indonesia
Abstrak: The objectives of this study were to analyze the factors that influence the supply and demand of oil fuel and to analyze the impact of oil fuel price subsidy policy on economic performance, poverty, and welfare in Indonesia. A simultaneous econometric model of Indonesia oil fuel price subsidy was estimated using a two stage least squares (2SLS) method and SYSLIN procedure for the data set period of 1986-2006. The forecast simulation was set for the period 2010- 2014 with NEWTON method and SIMNLIN procedure. The supply of oil fuel, which was represented by the amount imported, was influenced negatively by its world price and positively by its consumption, consumen price index, and its lag endogenous. The demand for oil fuel was influenced negatively by its retail price and positively by its consumption, its substitutes price, and its lag endogenous. The price subsidy of oil fuel was influenced positively by its world price, domestic exchange rate, government domestic revenue, and its lag endogenous. The price subsidy of oil fuel, except LPG, was elastic against world price of crude oil and domestic exchange rate in the short and long run. The forecast simulation of increases of world crude oil price was resulted in the increase of retail oil fuel price, decreasing economic growth, and increasing the inflation and poverty rate. The government policy to decrease oil fuel subsidy will result in deteriorating the economic performance, poverty alleviation program, and also welfare will be in large deficit. The less severe result happen when government applied kerosene conversion program to LPG. The deteriorating impact of the last two simulation were likely caused by the drop of government expenditure and the negative economic growth altogether. In such developing country like Indonesia, the role of government expenditure was central and important in boosting the economic. Such hypothesis was proven when oil fuel subsidy decreases and the level of government expenditure was kept constant, the result was surprisingly positive to economic performance and poverty alleviation program, even though the sustainable fiscal policy will be rather violated. To overcome the negative impact of the decreasing of oil fuel price subsidy and kerosene conversion program to LPG, government should kept the fiscal budget constant through budget reallocation strategy. By doing this, there were budget available for establishing fiscal space or putting more fund to strategic and most important development program including compensation program for the poor as well as poverty alleviation programs.
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Judul: Light Microscope Study of ConnectiveTissue in The Spleen of Common Rousette Bat (Rousettus amplexicaudatus)
Abstrak: The spleen is the largest lymphoid organ. As a secondary lymphoid organ, in addition to its immune function, the spleen also has functions as blood filtration, storage, and hematopoiesis. The spleen has different morphologies between species that support different physiological functions, one of which is the difference in the structure of the capsule and trabeculae. Capsule and trabeculae of the spleen generally consist of connective tissue and smooth muscle. The thickness of smooth muscle composed together with connective tissue in the capsule and trabecula determines the function of the spleen that is divided spleen into three storage, defense, and intermediate. Bats are the reservoir of various zoonotic diseases. Bats are thought to have unique immune systems compared to other mammals but the characteristics of its immune organs such as the spleen have never been studied before. This study was conducted to examine the characteristics of capsulae and trabecula of the Common Rousette (Rousettus amplexicaudatus).
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