Judul: Bayesian Simultaneous Autoregressive Models of Proverty Analysis in East Java Province
Abstrak: Simultaneous Autoregressive (SAR) is a spatial model derived from the linear regression equation that the error is designed as an autoregressive model which is the response variable at one location simultaneously observed to the response variable at other locations. In a previous study, Meilisa (2010) used maximum likelihood methods (MLM) without considering the initial information (prior) in the parameter estimates. The Bayesian approach is very good for smallsized samples, but it has not been much used or explored. According to Oliviera and Song (2008), based on simulation results showed that estimate value by Bayesian approach was closer to actual value, whereas by MLM lower than actual value. In this research, the noninformative prior that used for the Bayesian method wass the independence Jeffreys, Jeffreys-rule, and the uniform prior. The dataset that used was percentage poverty of 38 districts/towns in East Java province on the basis of explanatory variables were percentage of household that did not use clean water, residents who get health insurance and subsidized rice. The results showed that the spatial correlation of the three noninformative priors was 0.10. The best prior for SAR Bayes model with Jeffreys-rule prior had a coefficient of determination of 83.89% and it had the smallest value of variance estimator and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). In this case study, SAR Bayesian model had almost same coefficient determination with the results of regression and SAR model.
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Judul: Penerapan Regresi Spasial pada Data Kemiskinan Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Jawa Barat Tahun 2012
Abstrak: Poverty is a social problem that normally occurs in the middle of society, especially in developing countries. One important aspect to support poverty reduction strategy is the availability of accurate poverty data. Good data can be used to evaluate government policies on poverty, compare poverty between regions and determine the targeted destitute population with an am to improve their living conditions. One effort to overcome poverty is to identify the variables that affect it. In this research, poverty issue is examined by percentage of poor people districts/cities in West Java Province in 2012, making use of spatial regression analysis. The analysis showed that the spatial lag models (SAR) produced better allegation parameters than classic regression models in case of spatial correlation. This can be seen from the smaller AIC of SAR models (129.62) than classic regression models (133.06). In SAR models, variables that significantly affect the percentage of poor people in district/cities are the percentage of households using clean water (X10) and households with floor area per capita (X21).
Keyword: Bogor Agricultural University (IPB), spatial lag models (SAR), Poverty

Judul: Tingkat Kelahiran Ikan Plati Sunset Xiphophorus maculatus (Günther, 1866) pada Beberapa Tingkat Suhu Air
Abstrak: Ikan plati merupakan ikan hias air tawar yang bereproduksi dengan cara melahirkan (viviparous) dalam beberapa waktu. Memproduksi ikan plati dalam skala besar ternyata dihadapkan pada kendala yang besar, yaitu belum ada teknologi kelahiran anak serentak dalam satu waktu. Hal ini berdampak pada umur anak ikan tidak seragam dan pola tanam produksi terganggu, sehingga berujung pada ketidakefisienan dalam produksi. Pada penelitian ini dilakukan upaya penyerentakkan proses kelahiran oleh induk plati melalui rangsangan eksternal berupa peningkatan suhu secara mendadak. Penelitian ini menggunakan rancangan faktorial dengan empat perlakuan sebanyak tiga ulangan. Perlakuan kenaikan suhu yang diberikan adalah 30-32°C selama 12 dan 24 jam. Hasil yang diperoleh perlakuan kenaikan suhu ke 30°C selama 12 jam perlakuan memberikan tingkat induk melahirkan tertinggi.
Keyword: Ikan hias, Kelahiran, Poecillidae, Suhu, Xiphophorus maculatus