Judul: Prediksi Cuaca Jangka Pendek Menggunakan Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model
Abstrak: Short-range forecasting model has become an important tool to describe the complex atmospheric condition. The purpose of this research is to assess the potential of WRF output in short-range forecast. Weather forecasting method utilized in this research is WRF. Outputs of WRF model is compared with observational data of Ngurah Rai, Bali station. Solver in Microsoft Excel is used to reduce error generated in the model. This study focuses on only four output variables of WRF, namely, rainfall (CH), wind, relative humidity (RH) and temperature. The result shows rainfall and temperature are resulting from model calculation are better than the wind and relative humidity. Rainfall variable has an RMSE value of 0.84 and correlation of 0.62 while the RMSE value of the temperature is 1.09 with a correlation of 0.65. Correction process with the help of the Solver is effective in reducing the error of the following variables: temperature by 16%, wind by 62%, RH by 35% and rainfall by 87%.
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Judul: Potensi pemanfaatan keluaran model nwp untuk prediksi cuaca jangka pendek (Studi kasus: Pontianak, Pekanbaru, Semarang, Surabaya, dan Palu)
Abstrak: Numerical weather prediction (NWP) is an operational daily weather forecasting using mathematical equations by super-computer. The skill of NWP has improved significantly since it was first generated fourty years ago. The urgent needs for daily weather forecasting in Indonesia has led to the utilization of NWP model outputs to be incorporated into the forecasting scheme. NWP provides the basic guidance for weather forecasting beyond the first few hours. Unfortunately, spatial resolution of NWP model is still too rough to describe local conditions. Model output statistics (MOS) technique may be used to reduce error and increase accuracy of NWP model ouputs. The objective of this study includes the selection of the best combination of atmospheric predictors for daily precipitation, relative humidity, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature in five locations, namely, Pontianak, Pekanbaru, Semarang, Surabaya, and Palu which characterized three dominant rainfall regions in Indonesia, for the wet and dry seasons. The subsequent objective is to identify locations where NWP model outputs resemble observational data. Model outputs patterns are compared with observational data to analyze consistency, and whenever necessary some forms of correction factor is applied. The results indicate that humidity at the surface (at z=2m) and at mid-tropospheric levels (rh0 and rh8), and pressure vertical velocity at mid-tropospheric levels (vv7 and vv5) are the relevant variables for daily precipitation in all of the locations and all seasons analyzed. The most potential location to utilize NWP model is Palu. In Palu, surface air temperature (T0) and surface dew point temperature (DP0) are the relevant variables for relative humidity; humidity at the surface (rh0) is the relevant variable for maximum temperature; while surface dew point temperature (DP0) is the relevant variable for minimum temperature. Closeness of model outputs with observational data is inferred using error indicators, namely, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE).
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Judul: Biology Of Columbia Lance Nematode (Hoplolaimus Columbus Sher) On Soybean Excised Root Culture
Abstrak: S. Supramana, S. A. Lewis,.J. D. Mueller, B. A. Fortnum, and R. E. Ballard. 2001. Biology of Columbia lance nematod. ~ (Hoplolaimus columbus Sher) on soybean excised root culture. Nematropica 31 :283-2~)O. Feeding, egg development and oviposition, embryology, and postembtyonic development or Hoplolaimus col'lmbuswere observed on soybean (cultivar Hutcheson) excised root culture in Gam borg's B5 medium (pH 5.7,1.3% agar). Petri plate sterile cultures were placed inverted on a heated microscope stage (30°C) and observations were conducted using a color video camera and a time lapse digital videoca:;sette recorder. Oocytes were obsetved in each gonad 38 hours after feeding commenced and all egg possessing a terminal stalk was laid 96 hours later. Eggs were deposited it, the one-celled stag~ and a total of 217 hours (9 days) was required for a"newly laid egg to develop into a hatching second-stage juvenile at 30°C. Postembryonic development consisted of threejuvenile stages and an adult female with prior feeding occurring before molts and oviposition. The nematode fed ectoparasiticallyon the subepidermal cells and endoparasitically in the cortex and outer vascular tissue and remained at the infection site for 2·9 days. Key words: Columbia lance nematode, embryology, excised root culture, feeding behavior, HOfilo{aimus columbus, life cycle, oviposition, postembryonic development, soybean.
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