Judul: Analysis of competitiveness, linkages and source of growth of agro-based industry in indonesia
Abstrak: Semakin liberalnya perdagangan dunia akan menuntut peningkatan daya saing produk Indonesia di pasar global. Kemampuan bersaing produk Indonesia khususnya yang dihasilkan dari industri agro perlu dianalisis, dipahami keterkaitannya dengan sektor hulu dan hilir serta perlu dirumuskan sumber-sumber pertumbuhan dengan melakukan komparasi terhadap industri agro negara-negara lain. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah menganalisis posisi daya saing industri agro Indonesia melalui analisis input-output antar negara di Asia, khususnya antara Indonesia, Thailand dan China. Secara spesifik, tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah: (1) mengukur perubahan daya saing industri agro Indonesia, Thailand dan China, (2) menganalisis keterkaitan sektor industri agro Indonesia dengan perekonomian negara Thailand dan China, dan (3) menghitung dan menganalisis faktor-faktor pertumbuhan struktural sektor industri agro negara Indonesia, Thailand dan China.
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Judul: Competitiveness of the agricultural sector faced with free trade agreement ASEAN-China and its impact on rural economy in Indonesia
Abstrak: This study aimed to: (1) measure the competitiveness of the agricultural sector in supply side, and measure the contribution of various resources to the agricultural output in each of the ASEAN-5 countries and China, such as capital, labor, natural resources and technology; (2) measure export competitiveness of agricultural commodities ASEAN-5 and China in global market (3) measure the transmission of international prices of agricultural commodities to the domestic market in each countries, (4) analyze the impact of trade liberalization under ACFTA agreement framework to the macroeconomic of each country of ASEAN-5 and China as well as its impact on the rural economy in Indonesia and (5) analyze the impact of improved agricultural technologies, and transmission of international prices on the economy national and rural economy in Indonesia. Competitiveness of the supply side is analyzed based on the total factor productivity (TFP), while in the global market competitiveness based on revealed comparative adventage (RCA), index of market share, trade specialization index (ISP) and trade complementary index (IKP). Price transmission were analyzed by Revallion model, while the impact of ACFTA to each country's economy and the implications for rural economy in Indonesia were analyzed by static CGE models based on GTAP 8. The results showed that in all countries, except Singapore have the most of growth in agricultural output during 1961-2010 are from TFP, while Singapore comes from the capital. Agricultural TFP growth in China (1.97 percent) higher than the TFP ASEAN-5 (1.93 percent), but less than TFP Malaysia (3.40 percent) and Thailand (2.37 percent). Indonesia with agricultural TFP growth of 1.83 percent, indicating that Indonesia is less productive and less efficient in producing agricultural products than China, Malaysia and Thailand. China agricultural products also have larger market share in global market than ASEAN-5. Furthermore, the coefficient of transmission of international prices to domestic markets of each ASEAN-5 countries and China is small, but there are indications of short-term integration in most commodity crops in China and the long-term integration of plantation commodities in ASEAN-5. ACFTA generally have a positive impact on increasing the GDP in each ASEAN-5 countries, but Indonesia will get the smallest increase in GDP. ACFTA also increase people's consumption and sectoral output, but potentially lower government consumption and investment in each country. Liberalization, it also causes the trade deficit for most agricultural commodities Indonesia. Furthermore, it was found that the liberalization that accompanied an increase in agricultural TFP and price transmission in Indonesia will provide a greater positive impact of increased exports, private consumption and GDP, but the decline in government consumption and investment spending will also increase. Even this scenario is likely to reduce employment in the agricultural sector primary. Such scenarios also increase the income of all households in Indonesia, but farm households and rural households under the class get the smallest increase in revenue
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Judul: Approximation of the Median of Poisson Distribution Using the Relation of Poisson-Gamma Distribution
Abstrak: A major drawback of median is that median cannot usually be defined in closed form, even in the cases where their distribution functions are known. This study gives an approximation of the closed form for the median of the Poisson distribution by using the relation of Poisson-Gamma distribution. The approximation uses elementary techniques based on the monotonicity of certain sequences involving tail probabilities of the Poisson distribution and the Central Limit Theorem. Furthermore, a closed form expression for the mean absolute deviation 􀜧|􀜰􀰒 􀵆 􀜯􀝁􀝀􁈺􀜰􀰒􁈻| is also studied. The median is relevant because of the fact that it minimizes the mean absolute deviation of a Poisson random variable (􀜰􀰒􁈻 by considering median as central tendency.
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