Judul: Faktor-Faktor yang Memengaruhi Utang Luar Negeri Pemerintah: Uji Panel Kointegrasi Periode Tahun 2000-2013
Abstrak: External debt in almost countries all over the world recently has become a popular issue. All countries, either developing or developed ones have chosen external debt as their option in order to tackle budget deficit or even as one of stimulus ways to escalate performance of national development. However, the matter comes when the allocation of this so called external debt is usually not directed to some productive sectors. This study analyses which factors may properly influence the government external debt of developing and developed countries which represent some different areas. The Panel Cointegration approach is employed to investigate whether the existing relationship on the model is long run relationship or not. Overall, the findings of this study shows that these variables; exchange rate, GDPP, saving, inflation and interest rate significantly affect external debt, otherwise inflation and interest have no significant impact on external debt. Furthermore, all variables are cointegrated so the model has a long run relationship.
Keyword: Bogor Agricultural University, Panel Cointegration, long run relationship, External Debt, Developing and Developed Countries

Judul: The impacts of government external debt on the performance of Indonesia economy
Abstrak: The objectives of this study are to analyze the impact s of government external debt on the performance of Indonesia economy, which consists on the role of external debt in reducing deficit financing, decreasing debt stock and its growth. The policy alternatives set for period 1985 - 2005 are simulated wit h a simultaneous econometric model. The two - stage least squares (2 - SLS) method was used to estimate the parameters of the behavioral equations in the model. The result of simulation shows that world interest rate is a dominant factor in influencing externa l debt performance. I t can also be expressed that reducing in government external debt will decrease economic growth, reduce private consumption, reduce budget deficit and reduce re - payment of external loan. Another impact is decreasing sectoral developmen t growth which will lead to increasing the rate of unemployment. Another r esult of simulation also indicates that foreign financing and lender driven has significantly influenced on sectoral growth., Tujuan dari penelitian disertasi ini adalah untuk menganalisis dampak penggunaan utang luar negeri pemerintah terhadap kinerja perekonomian Indonesia yang meliputi peranan utang luar negeri pada beberapa sektor utama dalam perekonomian Indonesia, dan terhadap pengurangan stok utang luar negeri dan pengurangan pembiayaan defisit dalam rangka mencapai kemandirian dalam pembiayaan pembangunan. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini dikumpulkan dari berbagai sumber, terutama data series (time series) dari tahun 1985 sampai dengan tahun 2005, dan dibangun dalam suatu model ekonometrik asimultan. Metoda two-stage least squares (2-SLS) digunakan untuk mengestimasi parameter persamaan perilaku dalam model. Hasil simulasi kebijakan dari penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa suku bunga dunia merupakan faktor yang dominan dalam mempengaruhi keberadaan pinjaman luar negeri pemerintah. Dapat ditunjukkan pula bahwa penurunan jumlah pinjaman baru dari sumber luar negeri akan menyebabkan turunnya pertumbuhan ekonomi, penurunan konsumsi rumah tangga, penurunan investasi masyarakat, pengurangan defisit anggaran dan turunnya pembayaran pokok dan bunga utang luar negeri. Dampak yang lain adalah turunnya angka indikator pertumbuhan sektoral yang akan menyebabkan naiknya angka pengangguran. Hasil yang lain dari simulasi kebijakan juga menunjukkan bahwa utang luar negeri dan kebijakan donor mempunyai pengaruh yang kuat atas kinerja angka indikator pertumbuhan sektoral.
Keyword: deficit financing, debt stock, external loan, two-stage least squares (2-SLS)

Judul: Sintesis Flavon dari Fenol dan Benzoil Klorida
Abstrak: Flavone is a class of flavonoid, commonly found in plants with wide bioactivity spectrum. A widely used flavone synthesis route is through acidcatalyzed oxidative cyclization of β-diketone. In this study, unsubstituted flavone had been synthesized via 5-step from phenol, with 22% yield and successfully increased the yield of previous study on Fries rearrangement of phenyl acetate and benzoylation of o-HAP steps. Phenol was acetylated resulting 93% phenyl acetate. AlCl3-catalyzed Fries rearrangement in 1.5 hour and at 120 °C converted phenyl acetate into o-hydroxyacetophenone (o-HAP) with 40% yield. AlCl3 as catalyst produced o-HAP with higher and reproducible yield compared with BF3·Et2O and ZnCl2. Benzoylation of o-HAP followed by Baker-Venkataraman rearrangement of the ester product using KOH in dried pyridine produced β-diketone 1-(2- hydroxyphenyl)-3-phenylpropane-1,3-dione. The yield of ester and β-diketone were 71% and 85%, respectively. Finally, oxidative cyclization of β-diketone with sulphuric acid as catalyst produced 99% of flavone. The flavone product had been characterized spectroscopically and its melting point as well.
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