Judul: Penerapan Metode Sampling dengan Penambahan Peubah Partai Politik dalam Menurunkan Error Quick Count (Sudi Kasus: Pemilihan Presiden 2014)
Abstrak: Metode quick count mulai dikenal seiring dengan dilaksanakannya pemilihan umum (Pemilu) di Indonesia. Quick count bertujuan mengawal jalannya perhitungan suara dalam Pemilu agar terhindar dari kecurangan. Pada pemilihan presiden tahun 2014, berbagai lembaga survei ikut menyelenggarakan quick count. Lembaga-lembaga tersebut mengharapkan hasil dugaan yang akurat, yaitu hasil quick count yang sesuai dan memiliki selisih terdekat dengan rekapitulasi Komisi Pemilihan Umum. SaifulMujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) merupakan salah satu lembaga penyelenggara quick count dengan akurasi yang baik pada pemilihan presiden 2014. Selisih dugaan suara Jokowi-Jusuf Kalla berdasarkan hasil quick count SMRC dengan perhitungan KPU ialah 0.17%. Penelitian ini dilaksanakan untuk meningkatkan nilai akurasi pada pelaksanaan quick count. Akurasi quick count tentunya dipengaruhi oleh metode penarikan contoh yang digunakan. SMRC menggunakan penarikan contoh berlapis dengan wilayah provinsi sebagai strata. Penambahan peubah yang tepat sebagai dasar stratifikasi dapat meningkatkan akurasi quick count. Suara partai politik pendukung pasangan calon presiden dan wakil presiden, memiliki peran dalam menyumbang suara kemenangan pada pemilihan presiden. Studi Voting behavior menyebutkan adanya pengaruh besar partai politik terhadap kecenderungan masyarakat dalam menentukan pilihan. Simulasi yang dilakukan dalam penelitian ini menggunakan penambahan peubah partai politik untuk menemukan akurasi yang lebih baik dalam quick count.
Keyword: Identifikasi partai, margin of error, Pemilihan Umum, resampling, quick count

Judul: Comparison of Sampling Methods in the National Survey of Public Opinion of Political Parties (Case Study: 2019 Legislative Elections)
Abstrak: Survei dilakukan sebagai studi terhadap sebagian populasi untuk memberikan kesimpulan pada suatu populasi yang diteliti. Hasil survei yang baik dapat diperoleh dengan menggunakan metode sampling yang sesuai dengan tingkat akurasi yang diharapkan. Namun, pada penerapan metode sampling untuk survei nasional, banyak lembaga survei yang menggunakan metode sampling yang berbeda-beda. Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menentukan metode sampling terbaik dalam menurunkan sampling error pada survei nasional opini publik partai politik. Penelitian ini menggunakan data hasil rekapitulasi suara partai politik pemilihan legislatif DPR 2019 pada website https://pemilu2019.kpu.go.id/. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah melakukan simulasi pada beberapa kombinasi metode stratified sampling, cluster sampling, dan systematic sampling. Simulasi ini dilakukan dengan membandingkan nilai-nilai error yang diperoleh dari tiap-tiap kombinasi metode yang disimulasikan. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa metode stratified systematic cluster random sampling menjadi pilihan terbaik yang digunakan dalam melakukan survei nasional opini publik partai politik karena menghasilkan tingkat validitas yang cukup tinggi serta tingkat reliabilitas dan akurasi yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan metode cluster random sampling dan stratified cluster random sampling. Metode tersebut dapat menjadi pilihan yang digunakan oleh lembaga survei pada survei nasional., The survey was conducted as a study of a portion of the population to provide conclusions on a population studied. Good survey results can be obtained by using a sampling method that is in accordance with the expected level of accuracy. However, in the application of the sampling method for national surveys, many survey institutions use different sampling methods. Therefore, this study aims to determine the best sampling method in reducing sampling error in a national survey of political party public opinion. This study uses data from the recapitulation of political party votes for the 2019 DPR legislative elections on the website https://pemilu2019.kpu.go.id/. The method used in this study was to simulate several combinations of stratified sampling, cluster sampling, and systematic sampling. This simulation is carried out by comparing the error values obtained from each combination of simulated methods. The results of this study indicate that the stratified systematic cluster random sampling method is the best choice used in conducting a national survey of political party public opinion because it produces a fairly high level of validity as well as a higher level of reliability and accuracy than the cluster random sampling and stratified cluster random sampling methods. This method can be the choice used by survey institutions in national surveys.
Keyword: lembaga survei, metode sampling, partai politik, simulasi, survei nasional

Judul: Biology and ecology of the buffalo fly, haematobia exigua de meijere (diptera:muscidae)
Abstrak: The life history of the buffalo fly was observed at room temperature of 27°-29.5°C and at a relative humidity of 48-68 percent. The eggs hatched after 17-22 hours, with an average of 18 hours. First instar larvae measured 1.25 + 0.16 mm long and 0.27 + 0.037 mm wide. reach the second larval stage. It took 6-12 hours to the second instar larvae measured 2.676 +0.187 mm long and 0.353 +0.028 mm wide. The second instar took about 12-24 hours to reach the third larval stage. The third instar measured 6.833 + 0.189 mm long and 0.919 + 0.051 mm wide. It took about 2-3 days for the third instar to become pupae. Duration of the pupal stage was about 5-7 days before the adults emerged. Under laboratory condition, the buffalo fly completed its life cycle in 9.5 to 10.5 days, whereas under field condition it took 9-14 days with an average of 10.5 days. The growth ratio which was based on the measurements of the cephalo-pharyngeal skeleton of each instar was 1.797. The preoviposition period was 8-12 days and mating usually occurred on the 6th or 7th day. The longevity of the male was 29 days, whereas it was 32 days in the female. The range of egg production under laboratory condition was between 20-139 per female fly. The belly and hind legs of the carabao were the most preferred habitat either during cloudy and cool dry or shiny and warm day. When the weather was clear and the carabao was in the shade, the flies tended to be more distributed particularly on the shoulder, dewlap, back and horns. The carabaos had relatively fewer Musca sp. and Stomoxys calcitrans than cattle; never the less carabaos had a higher infestation of buffalo fly than cattle. Oviposition occured either during the day or night but the buffalo flies were more active during the night than in the day time. The effect of various lengths of exposure time of manure in relation to the oviposition was profound. observed, the maximum number of the buffalo flies was occurred when the dung was exposed for 30 minutes. With increasing time of exposure the number and variety of insects also increase. It was evident that Sepsidae and psychodidae were the most dominant insects emerging from the dung. The number of buffalo flies also increased with increasing
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