Judul: Analisis Risiko Produksi Anggrek Potong (Dendrobium sp) Kelompok Tani Mekar Sari Kecamatan Gunung Sindur Kabupaten Bogor
Abstrak: Orchid ispotential floriculture commodity to export, especially forDendrobium sp. This kind of orchid is cultivated by Mekar Sari farmes group in Gunung Sindur. The cultivation susceptible of the risk of business, that is production risk. This Fluctuation production and wheater conditions make value of risk. The purpose of this research are to indicated the source of production risk, probability analysi, implication and alternative strategic for handling it. Identification of production risk in Dendrobium sp. use descriptive analysis resulted such as risk of weather, pests, disease, and labor. The Result of probability analysis use Z-score method from highest to smallest are risk of weather, labor, pests, and disease. Implication analysis use VaR method from highest to smallest are risk of weather, pests, disease, and labor. Preventive strategic conducted for risk of weather, pests, and labor, while Mitigation Strategic conducted for risks of weather
Keyword: Value at Risk, Z-score, production risk, Dendrobium sp

Judul: Analisis Risiko Produksi Anggrek  Vanda douglas di Desa Rawakalong Kecamatan Gunung Sindur Kabupaten Bogor Jawa Barat
Abstrak: Desa Rawakalong yang terletak di Kecamatan Gunung Sindur menjadi sentra produksi tanaman anggrek Vanda douglas. Adanya fluktuasi produksi mengindikasikan adanya risiko produksi dalam budidaya tanaman anggrek. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi sumber risiko yang menjadi penyebab kegagalan produksi, menganalisis probabilitas dan dampak risiko produksi, serta menganalisis alternatif strategi untuk menangani risiko. Metode analisis deskriptif menghasilkan bahwa sumber risiko pada anggrek Vanda douglas adalah cuaca, penyakit, dan hama. Hasil yang diperoleh dengan menggunakan analisis Z-Score menghasilkan probabilitas pada setiap sumber risiko. Urutan dampak terbesar yang dihasilkan dari perhitungan VaR adalah cuaca, penyakit, hama. Alternatif strategi yang disusun berdasarkan pemetaan risiko yaitu strategi preventif dapat diterapkan pada sumber risiko cuaca dan hama untuk mengurangi probabilitas. Sedangkan strategi mitigasi dapat diterapkan pada sumber risiko penyakit dan cuaca untuk mengurangi dampak kerugian.
Keyword: Mitigation strategy, preventif strategy, Vanda douglas orchid

Judul: Hamiltonian formulation for linear waves motion in two layers fluid
Abstrak: The surface wave could be considered as a wave that separates two fluids, namely water and air. Based on this assumption, it is introduced the interfacial wave, a wave between two layers of fluid with different density. The formulation of interfacial waves motion begins with deriving the base equation of irrotational ideal fluid. Furthermore, according to irrotational fluid assumption, the base equation can be stated in velocity potential. In this derivation, the fluids domain is assumed to be restricted by rigid lid boundary conditions, both at the upper and lower limit. Therefore, the interfacial waves motion can be explained in a hamiltonian formulation. In the hamiltonian formulation, total energy is defined as the sum of kinetic and potential energy. The hamiltonian system is obtained from reduction of kinetic energy by using the Dirichlet Neumann Operator. The resulted kinetic energy equation is nonlinear. Therefore, this form is linearized by first part of the Taylor expansion. This linearization gives a dispersion relation of linear wave. Based on this dispersion relation, the phase speed of the linear wave depends on the density ratio of the two layers fluid.
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