Judul: Model swasembada Gula Kristal Putih (GKP) nasional dengan pendekatan sistem dinamik
Abstrak: White Crystal Sugar (GKP) is a type of direct consumption sugar from sugarcane. Sugarcane plantations in Indonesia is dominated by smallholder farmers with low productivity. This led to the low production rate of white crystal sugar, moreover this rate is actually lower than the consumption rate. As a result, sugar production cannot meet domestic consumption, thus importing sugar is the easy solution to fill the gap. Efforts to reduce dependency on imports of white crystal sugar prompted the government to implement the National Sugar Industry Revitalization program (RIGN) to achieve self-sufficiency of white crystal sugar on 2014. Achieving self-sufficiency of white crystal sugar in the future will be influenced by factors related to the supply of raw materials, processing, trading and sugar demand, either individually or as a result of the interaction between these factors. Therefore, it was important to analyze the dynamic of self-sufficiency thru a self sufficiency model of white crystal sugar which covers all the four sub-models. The purpose of this study were to (1) study the possibility of achieving self-sufficiency of white crystal sugar, (2) study the impact of RIGN policy on self-sufficiency of white crystal sugar achievement, and (3) formulate scenario and alternative policies to reach the national self sufficiency of white crystal sugar. Data were analyzed by building the system dynamic model using powersim studio tool. The simulation period was from 2010 to 2025. RIGN policy impacts were analyzed using three scenarios: (1) scenario 1 (increasing land area 3.2 percent per year), (2) scenario 2 (increasing productivity of sugarcane 1.6 percent per year, (3) scenario 3 (increasing yield 1.41 percent per year). While to formulate alternative policies used four scenarios, which were: (1) scenario 4 (decreasing population growth to 1.3 percent per year), (2) scenario 5 (a combination of increasing land area 3.2 percent per year and decreasing of population growth to 1.3 percent per year), (3) scenario 6 (a combination of increasing productivity 1.6 percent per year and decreasing population growth to 1.3 percent per year, (4) scenario 7 (a combination of increasing yield 1.41 percent per year and decreasing population growth to 1.3 percent per year. The results showed that, on actual conditions, national self sufficiency of white crystal sugar will not be realized during simulation period. In 2010, the deficit of white crystal availability is 0.12 million tonnes. If there is no policy, the deficit of white crystal sugar availability will increase to the end of the simulation. The deficit of white crystal sugar availability in 2025 is 1.23 million tons. While in 2014, the deficit of white crystal sugar availability is 0.30 million tons. This means self-sufficiency of white crystal sugar targeted by the government in 2014 will not be achieved in actual conditions. The results of RIGN policy impacts analysis showed that increasing sugarcane yield policy would have better performance compare to increasing productivity and increasing land area policies. Thru increasing sugarcane yield policy, Indonesia is predicted to reach self-sufficiency of white crystal sugar on 2014 to the end of analysis period. The deficit of white crystal sugar availability in 2014
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Judul: The Affecting Factors of Sugar Production in Indonesia due to National Sugar Self Sufficiency
Abstrak: Untuk memenuhi peningkatan konsumsi gula, pemerintah sedang gencar mendorong peningkatan produksi gula dengan target dapat berswasembada gula nasional. Akan tetapi, produktivitas gula saat ini tergolong rendah, dan produksi gula pun mengalami tren penurunan setiap tahunnya. Tujuan penelitian ini yaitu mendeskripsikan perkembangan agribisnis gula, menganalisis faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi produksi gula di Indonesia, dan meramalkan pencapaian swasembada gula Indonesia tahun 2025. Data yang digunakan berupa data runtun waktu dari tahun 1966-2019 dan dianalisis menggunakan metode VECM. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa pada jangka pendek, produksi gula dipengaruhi oleh luas areal panen tebu dan konsumsi gula, sedangkan pada jangka panjang produksi gula dipengaruhi oleh konsumsi gula, impor gula, dan harga GKG. Peramalan hingga tahun 2025 menunjukkan bahwa ketergantungan Indonesia terhadap gula impor cenderung meningkat, sehingga Indonesia tidak dapat memenuhi target swasembada gula tahun 2025., In order to fulfill the increasing of sugar consumprtion, government is aggressively encouraging an increase in sugar production to achieve sugar selfsufficiency. However, the sugar production still has low productivity, and decreasing trend each year. This study aims to describe the growth of sugar agribusiness, analyze the affecting factors of sugar production, and forecast the achievement of sugar self-sufficiency in 2025. The data has been used in this study is time series data from 1966 until 2019, and analyzed by VECM method. The result of the analysis shows that, in the short term sugar production are affected by sugarcane harvest area and sugar consumption, while in long term, sugar production are affected by sugar consumption, sugar import, and price of paddy. Forecasting until 2025 shows that Indonesia's dependence on imported sugar tends to increase, so that Indonesia cannot achieve the sugar self-sufficiency target in 2025.
Keyword: production, self sufficiency, sugar, VECM

Judul: Distemper Pada Anjing
Abstrak: Distemper merupakan penyakit infeksius pada bimbingan anjing yang menduduki tempet teratas dan penyakit ini tersebar di seluruh bagian dunia dimana terdapat anjing-anjing yang dipelihara, terutama pada anjing-anjing muda di kota-kota besar, pada kelompok-kelompok anjing atau pada situasi lain dimana banyak terdapat kontak antara anjing. Penyakit ini disebabkan oleh virus yang termasuk dalam famili Paramyxoviridae dan genus Morbilivirus. Infeksi virus ini sering disertai oleh infeksi sekunder oleh kuman Staphylococcus, streptococcus, Brucella bronchiseptica dan kuman Salmonella, inilah yang kadang-kadang sebagai penyebab kematian.
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