Judul: Demand Forecasting Analysis of SME in Times of Covid-19 Pandemic (Study Case: School Uniform Store)
Abstrak: Munculnya kasus Coronavirus Disease (Covid-19) menimbulkan berbagai dampak bagi perekonomian Indonesia, salah satunya bagi penyedia seragam sekolah dengan adanya kebijakan Belajar Dari Rumah. Analisis peramalan permintaan pada Toko Endra penting untuk dilakukan agar toko dapat memperkirakan penjualan di periode berikutnya. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meramalkan permintaan seragam dan menentukan metode peramalan kuantitatif terbaik untuk masing-masing jenis seragam. Peramalan dilakukan terhadap dua jenis seragam yaitu kemeja putih L dan rok pramuka XL. Metode yang digunakan adalah Analisis Tren, Moving Average, Double Exponential Smoothing, dan Winter’s Exponential Smoothing. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa metode yang tepat untuk meramalkan permintaan periode mendatang adalah Winter’s Exponential Smoothing bagi kemeja putih L dan metode Analisis Tren bagi rok pramuka XL karena memiliki nilai MAD dan MSE yang terkecil dibandingkan metode yang lainnya., The Coronavirus Disease (Covid-19) pandemic effected stores that provide school uniform since the new rules of Study from Home was implemented to prevent the spread of the virus. Demand forecasting analysis of Toko Endra is important to predict the demand of school uniform for the next period. The purpose of this research are to forecast the demand of school uniform and to find the best quantitative method for each type of uniform. The forecast was performed on two type of uniform, White Shirt L and Scout Skirt XL. The method used were Trend Analysis, Moving Average, Double Exponential Smoothing, and Winter’s Exponential Smoothing. The result shows the best method to forecast the demand for the next period are Winter’s Exponential Smoothing for White Shirt L and Trend Analysis for Scout Skirt XL for having the smaller value of MAD and MSE than the others.
Keyword: Double Exponential Smoothing, MAD, Moving Average, MSE, Trend Analysis, Triple Exponential Smoothing

Judul: Forecasting and Probabilistic Inventory Model on Fashion Products at Distro Club Bogor
Abstrak: Distro muncul sebagai salah satu bentuk inovasi dalam persaingan industri fesyen di Indonesia yang dinamis. Penelitian ini dilakukan dari bulan Februari-Mei 2024 di Distro Club Kota Bogor. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengklasifikasikan prioritas kategori barang, menganalisis sistem peramalan permintaan paling efektif, dan menentukan tingkat safety stock dan reorder point. Analisis ABC mengidentifikasi kategori prioritas yaitu t-shirt, hoodie, sepatu, jaket, long sleeve, dan long shirt yang berkontribusi terbesar terhadap nilai penjualan. Metode Winter's Exponential Smoothing dipilih sebagai metode peramalan terbaik dengan bobot optimal 0,9. Penerapan model probabilistik dibagi menjadi 2 periode. Untuk bulan April, safety stock (SS) dapat mengantisipasi lonjakan permintaan Idul Fitri dengan SS t-shirt 249 unit, hoodie 85 unit, sepatu 7 unit, jaket 24 unit, long sleeve 29 unit, long shirt 19 unit. Untuk selain bulan April, SS t-shirt 242 unit, hoodie 69 unit, sepatu 41 unit, jaket 20 unit, long sleeve 36 unit, long shirt 25 unit. ROP t-shirt 273 unit, hoodie 80 unit, sepatu 45 unit, jaket 23 unit, long sleeve 41 unit, long shirt 27 unit., Distro emerged as a form of innovation in the dynamic competition of the fashion industry in Indonesia. This research was conducted from February to May 2024 at Distro Club Bogor City. This research aims to classify the priority categories of goods, analyze the most effective demand forecasting system, and determine the level of safety stock and reorder point. ABC analysis identifies priority categories, namely t-shirts, hoodies, shoes, jackets, long sleeves, and long shirts that contribute the most to sales value. Winter's Exponential Smoothing method was selected as the best forecasting method with an optimal weight of 0.9. The application of the probabilistic model is divided into 2 periods. For the month of April, safety stock (SS) can anticipate the surge in demand for Idul Fitri with SS t-shirts 249 units, hoodies 85 units, shoes 7 units, jackets 24 units, long sleeves 29 units, long shirts 19 units. For other than April, SS t-shirt 242 units, hoodie 69 units, shoes 41 units, jacket 20 units, long sleeve 36 units, long shirt 25 units. ROP t-shirt 273 units, hoodie 80 units, shoes 45 units, jacket 23 units, long sleeve 41 units, long shirt 27 units.
Keyword: Analisis ABC, manajemen persediaan, winter's exponential smoothing, model probabilistik

Judul: Posisi Filogenetik Kura-Kura Carettochelys Insculpta  (Reptillia: Testudinata)
Abstrak: Carettochelys insculpta is an endemic freshwater turtle of southern Papua and northern Australia. Phylogenetic position of this turtle is remain unresolved until now. Most of the research conducted show close relationships of C. insculpta and members of Trionychidae family. However, some of the research show distance between C. insculpta and members of Trionychidae family. This research is conducted to analyze phylogenetic relationship between C. insculpta and other members of Testudinata using 12S rRNA, 16S rRNA, and both gene as markers. DNA samples were obtained from three different organisms of C. insculpta. Two species used as outgroups were Alligator mississippiensis and Iguana iguana. Phylogenetic analysis was carried out using Neighbor-Joining method with Felsenstein 1981 (F81) modeltest. A polytomy tree of Testudinata was produced by using 12S rRNA gene. However, analysis using 16S rRNA and both genes as markers confirmed that C. insculpta was located between the Chelonidae and the Trionychidae family.
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