Judul: Competitiveness of the agricultural sector faced with free trade agreement ASEAN-China and its impact on rural economy in Indonesia
Abstrak: This study aimed to: (1) measure the competitiveness of the agricultural sector in supply side, and measure the contribution of various resources to the agricultural output in each of the ASEAN-5 countries and China, such as capital, labor, natural resources and technology; (2) measure export competitiveness of agricultural commodities ASEAN-5 and China in global market (3) measure the transmission of international prices of agricultural commodities to the domestic market in each countries, (4) analyze the impact of trade liberalization under ACFTA agreement framework to the macroeconomic of each country of ASEAN-5 and China as well as its impact on the rural economy in Indonesia and (5) analyze the impact of improved agricultural technologies, and transmission of international prices on the economy national and rural economy in Indonesia. Competitiveness of the supply side is analyzed based on the total factor productivity (TFP), while in the global market competitiveness based on revealed comparative adventage (RCA), index of market share, trade specialization index (ISP) and trade complementary index (IKP). Price transmission were analyzed by Revallion model, while the impact of ACFTA to each country's economy and the implications for rural economy in Indonesia were analyzed by static CGE models based on GTAP 8. The results showed that in all countries, except Singapore have the most of growth in agricultural output during 1961-2010 are from TFP, while Singapore comes from the capital. Agricultural TFP growth in China (1.97 percent) higher than the TFP ASEAN-5 (1.93 percent), but less than TFP Malaysia (3.40 percent) and Thailand (2.37 percent). Indonesia with agricultural TFP growth of 1.83 percent, indicating that Indonesia is less productive and less efficient in producing agricultural products than China, Malaysia and Thailand. China agricultural products also have larger market share in global market than ASEAN-5. Furthermore, the coefficient of transmission of international prices to domestic markets of each ASEAN-5 countries and China is small, but there are indications of short-term integration in most commodity crops in China and the long-term integration of plantation commodities in ASEAN-5. ACFTA generally have a positive impact on increasing the GDP in each ASEAN-5 countries, but Indonesia will get the smallest increase in GDP. ACFTA also increase people's consumption and sectoral output, but potentially lower government consumption and investment in each country. Liberalization, it also causes the trade deficit for most agricultural commodities Indonesia. Furthermore, it was found that the liberalization that accompanied an increase in agricultural TFP and price transmission in Indonesia will provide a greater positive impact of increased exports, private consumption and GDP, but the decline in government consumption and investment spending will also increase. Even this scenario is likely to reduce employment in the agricultural sector primary. Such scenarios also increase the income of all households in Indonesia, but farm households and rural households under the class get the smallest increase in revenue
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Judul: Trade Creation dan Trade Diversion atas Pemberlakuan ACFTA terhadap Perdagangan Hortikultura Indonesia
Abstrak: Peningkatan Free Trade Agreement (FTA) dalam dua dekade terakhir telah memberikan dampak yang signifikan pada perdagangan internasional. Salah satu FTA yang ditandatangani oleh Indonesia adalah ACFTA (Asean-China Free Trade Area), kawasan perdagangan bebas bagi negara-negara di kawasan Asia Tenggara dan China yang dimulai sejak tahun 2004. The Early Harvest Programm (EHP) adalah program untuk menghapuskan hambatan perdagangan komoditas (HS 01- HS 08) secara bertahap. Bagi Indonesia, produk hortikultura dengan kode HS 07 (Edible vegetables and certain roots and tubers) dan HS 08 (Edible fruit and nuts; peel of citrus fruit or melons) menjadi produk dengan total perdagangan terbesar. Sub-sektor hortikultura seharusnya mendapat dampak positif atas implementasi ACFTA. Namun demikian, kinerja sub-sektor hortikultura belum memberikan kinerja yang berarti ketika sebagian besar komoditas hortikultura telah diturunkan tarifnya melalui program EHP. Sebaliknya, yang terjadi adalah impor hortikultura mengalami peningkatan pasca ACFTA diberlakukan. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis : 1) Keragaan ekonomi negara anggota ACFTA 2) Keragaan perdagangan hortikultura negara anggota ACFTA 3) Daya saing produk hortikultura negara ASEAN-5 dengan China baik sebelum atau sesudah ACFTA diberlakukan dan 4) Dampak trade creation dan trade diversion atas pemberlakuan ACFTA terhadap perdagangan produk hortikultura Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan RSCA (Revealed Symetric Comparative Advantage) untuk menganalisis daya saing produk hortikultura tersebut dan dampak kreasi perdagangan dan diversi perdagangan atas pemberlakuan ACFTA dianalisis menggunakan pendekatan model gravitasi. Data yang dianalisis adalah data time series tahunan dari 2001 hingga 2018 dan data cross section 17 negara ( 7 negara anggota ACFTA dan 10 negara utama mitra dagang Indonesia). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa negara diantara anggota ACFTA yang memiliki jumlah terbesar jika dilihat dari keragaan ekonominya adalah GDP riil dan populasi (China dan Indonesia) serta GDP riil per kapita (Singapura dan Brunei Darussalam). Jika dilihat dari keragaan perdagangan produk hortikultura Indonesia, impor didominasi produk hortikultura asal China. Di sisi ekspor, tujuan ekspor relatif terdiversifikasi diantara negara anggota ACFTA yaitu Thailand, Vietnam dan Malaysia. Dengan pendekatan RSCA didapatkan hasil bahwa daya saing pada produk-produk sayuran di kawasan ASEAN-China dimiliki oleh China dan Thailand (RSCA > 0). Negara-negara anggota ACFTA yang memiliki keunggulan komparatif untuk produk buah-buahan adalah China, Philipina dan Thailand (RSCA > 0). Sementara itu berdasarkan nilai RSCA, Indonesia tidak berdaya saing pada kedua jenis produk hortikultura tersebut (RSCA < 0). Hasil estimasi model gravitasi menunjukkan bahwa telah terjadi kreasi perdagangan pada sektor perdagangan produk hortikultura Indonesia baik dari sisi impor maupun ekspor dan tidak menyebabkan adanya diversi perdagangan atas pemberlakuan ACFTA tersebut. Dalam hal impor, ACFTA telah memberikan efek peningkatan perdagangan sebesar 63.57 persen [(exp(0. 0.492063)-1)*100)] lebih tinggi daripada tanpa ACFTA. Sementara itu di sisi ekspor, ACFTA telah memberikan efek peningkatan perdagangan sebesar 110.97 persen [(exp(0.746555)-1)*100)] lebih tinggi daripada tanpa ACFTA. Rekomendasi kebijakan yang dapat disarankan adalah melakukan kebijakan peningkatan daya saing melalui perbaikan komponen manajerial dan teknologi baik melalui teknik budidaya mengikuti Good Agricultural Practise (GAP), penanganan pasca panen dan perbaikan sistem distribusi produk hortikultura seiring terbukanya pasar di kawasan ini bagi UMKM.
Keyword: data panel, daya saing, integrasi ekonomi, model gravitasi, RSCA

Judul: Penggunaan Teorema Homeomorphy 2-Manifold dan Teorema Euler Poincare pada Torus 𝑇�� dan Simplicial Complex 𝐾��
Abstrak: Two dimensional topological spaces are said to be homeomorphic if they have the same topological invariant, where one of topological invariant used is an Euler characteristic. Homeomorphy 2-Manifold’s Theorem and Euler Poincare’s Theorem are used to distinguish two topological spaces. Homeomorphy 2-Manifold’s Theorem uses Euler characteristic to identify two dimensional topological spaces. Euler Poincare’s Theorem is an alternative way to find Euler characteristic with Betti number, which is topological invariant as well. The objective of this paper is to investigate the homeomorphism of torus 𝑇����� and simplicial complex 𝐾�����. Topological space torus and simplicial complex 𝐾����� have the same Euler characteristic, which is two. Based on Homeomorphy 2-Manifold’s Theorem topological space torus 𝑇����� and simplicial complex 𝐾����� is homeomorphic.
Keyword: simplicial, torus, Euler, homeomorphism, topology