Judul: Hilirisasi Industri Agro melalui Kebijakan Pajak Ekspor dan Peningkatan Produktivitas bagi Komoditas Ekspor Utama
Abstrak: The agro-industrial sector is the largest contributor in the industry sector, but its contribution to GDP (Gross Domestic Product) has consistently declined each year. The average growth of this sector is only around four per cent for the period 1999-2012. Decline in the share of agro industry to GDP is predicted due to lack of availability of raw materials and low productivity of the agricultural sector. The Ministry of Industry through a policy of acceleration and expansion strategy seeks to encourage the development of agro-industry support infrastructure in line with the master plan for economic development expansion and acceleration program in Indonesia (MP3EI). The Government will provide incentives to employers who supply the raw materials to country, and disincentives (duty) for the export of raw materials. The government is gradually trying to attract local and foreign investors to develop the agro-industry. In addition, the government through its strategic plan has allocated a budget to increase the productivity of the agricultural sector, due to the stagnation in the agricultural sector. Increased productivity is expected to encourage downstream agro industry. This study will focus on the export tax and productivity increment policies on export commodities as the main policies chosen for the development of downstream agro industry. The main export commodities in this study are tax imposed export commodities. The model used to measure the impact of the policy is a comparative static CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model. In addition this model is also able to measure the impact of macroeconomic, sectoral economy, and measure the impact on household income distribution groups. The results show that the export tax policies have a negative impact on economic growth (real GDP). The decline is due to the decline in value of exports, real household consumption, real investment and real government expenditures. If the success of the national economy is only assessed by macroeconomic indicators, the policy is judged to be a pro to national economic growth, and worsen the competitiveness of exports. Conversely, if the export policy is accompanied by an increase in the productivity of the upstream sector, it will have a positive impact on real GDP. The increase in real GDP would be higher if the export tax policy and increased productivity upstream sector is accompanied by an increased productivity in downstream sectors. Export tax policy could restrain export growth in the sectors imposed tax with or without an increase in productivity of the upstream and downstream sectors of agro-based industries. The decline in exports become smaller if accompanied an increase in productivity of the tax imposed export commodities. This is consistent with the expectations of the export tax enforcement policy, which restrains the growth rate of exports. The same thing happened in the sectoral imports. The decline in exports has prompted an increase in domestic output in certain agro-industrial subsectors. However, if it is followed by an increase in the productivity of the upstream and downstream sectors of agro-based industries, domestic output will increase at each agro industry and agriculture subsector. The increase in output is accompanied by a decrease of sectoral output
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