Judul: Sustainable coastal resource management model based on REDD+ (a case study in coastal region of Sembilang National Park
Abstrak: Indonesia as an archipelagic developing country is a highly vulnerable to direct of climate change. Sea level rise could cause flooding, even predicted to sink some small islands. Meanwhile, the majority (68%) of Indonesia's population live in coastal areas with low adaptive capacity to face global climate change and high pressure to deforestation and degradation, that’s why the coastal become more vulnerable. Therefore, it is needed a new coastal resource management strategy based on the adoption of climate change such as REDD+. This study aimed to design a model of coastal resource management based on REDD+, as well as measuring the level of avoided emission, as the basis for carbon crediting assessment of mangrove forest resources based on the principle of payment for ecosystem services. The method used is the analysis of dynamic systems which is carried out single case multi-level analysis with the procedure "SAVE DYNAMIC": Spatial, Allometric equation, Valuation of Economic followed by analysis of the best economic allocation, and simulation modeling with two scenarios : business as usual (BAU model) and carbon crediting (model CC). Reference emission level (REL) is determined based on historical emissions from deforestation and forest degradation of Indonesia 2003-2006, and a combination of remote sensing (spatial data) and ground survey. Meanwhile, the predictions of future changes in forest cover is determined by a combination of historical data and modeling approach with a predictor of the rate of population. The estimation of forest biomass into carbon done by converting forest inventory data on the scale of the plot with the allometric equation at a high level of detail (Tier 2-3). The results showed that the management of the CC model scenario in the Sembilang National Park (SNP) has the potential for avoided emission of 1.15 MtCO2 yr-1 with the value of carbon credits on average 11.50 million USD yr-1 (assuming a carbon price 10 USD tCO2 -1). Meanwhile, cost of good sold of carbon is 8.05 USD tCO2 -1. Utilization of carbon crediting options and sylvofishery option with NPV of 8,487.77 million USD (3.6 times > NPV BAU). This could encourage employment opportunities for 100,410 workers (11 times > model BAU). With the CC model scenarios reflect SNP as a region which capable of conduct carbon sink sequestration of CO2 emissions. In addition, SNP has a potential for terrestrial carbon 109.36 MtCO2 over 25 years of management commitment period or an average of 4.37 MtCO2 yr-1. Cumulatively in 2020 SNP area will contribute to the achievement of GHG emission reduction of 72.03 MtCO2. If the assumption of the calculation of national emissions of Indonesia in 2020 by 2.6 GtCO2, emission reduction will reach 26% amounting to 0.676 GtCO2. Thus it can be predicted that the SNP coastal able to contribute GHG emission reduction to total Indonesian Government commitment about 10.65% in 2020 or 2.77% to total Indonesian emissions potential. However, if the SNP management is done by the current (business as usual), predicted a carbon source region, because of the released CO2 emissions (3.16 MtCO2 yr-1) is greater than the terrestrial carbon that can be absorbed
Keyword: Coastal Resource Management, Save dynamic, Clean Development Mechanism