Judul: The Pattern of Expanding Built-Up Land and Increasing Regional Temperature in Metro City
Abstrak: Perluasan lahan terbangun di kota yang disertai penurunan luasan vegetasi dapat meningkatkan dan memicu peningkatan suhu kawasan (Urban Heat Island). Data BPS Kota Metro menunjukkan laju pertumbuhan penduduk sebesar 7,85% dalam periode 2015-2019. Pertumbuhan penduduk yang semakin meningkat membutuhkan ruang lebih besar untuk tempat tinggal, fasilitas dan prasarana, sehingga mendorong terjadinya perluasan lahan terbangun. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis perubahan penggunaan/penutupan lahan pada periode 2000-2020 dan pola perluasannya; dan menelaah keterkaitan lahan terbangun dan lahan bervegetasi dengan suhu permukaan; serta memprediksi komposisi penggunaan lahan terbangun di tahun 2030. Penelitian dilaksanakan di Kota Metro menggunakan citra Landsat 5 dan 8, data Land Surface Temperature (LST), data jalan dan sungai, Digital Elevation Model (DEM), kemiringan lereng dan batas administrasi. Penutupan dan penggunaan lahan diklasifikasikan dengan menggunakan algoritma Random Forests. Pola perluasan ditelaah melalui Indeks Moran Lokal, sedangkan keterkaitan dianalisis menggunakan Korelasi Pearson. Penelitian ini menggunakan model Cellular Automata – Artificial Neural network (CA-ANN) untuk memodelkan penggunaan lahan mendatang. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan luas lahan terbangun Kota Metro dalam periode 2000-2020 meningkat 25% dan sebaliknya, vegetasi herbasea menurun sebesar 23%. Pola perluasan lahan terbangun membentuk pola pita sepanjang jalan primer dan sekunder serta sebaran yang semakin berkelompok. Sebaran lahan terbangun searah dengan sebaran suhu kawasan yang tinggi. Simulasi di tahun 2030 menunjukkan peluang peningkatan lahan terbangun dan penurunan lahan bervegetasi. Kata kunci: CA-ANN, lahan terbangun, pola perluasan, urban heat island, vegetasi herbasea, The expansion of built-up lands in cities, accompanied by the decrease in vegetative coverage can increase surface temperature and triggers a rise in regional temperature (known as Urban Heat Island). Metro City Statistics (BPS) data indicates population growth rate of 7.85% in the 2015-2019 period. Increasing population growth requires more space for houses, facilities, infrastructure, thus encouraging the expansion of built-up lands. This study aimed to analyze land use/cover changes over 2000-2020 time span, their expansion pattern and the distribution of built-up lands, vegetation area, and surface temperature, in addition to predict the composition of built-up land use in 2030. The study was conducted in Metro City using Landsat 5 and 8 images, Land Surface Temperature (LST) data, road and river data, DEM and Slope, and administrative boundaries. Land cover/use were classified using the Random Forest algorithm. Meanwhile, urban expansion pattern was studied through Local Moran Index. Correlation among land cover types was performed using Pearson Correlation, while land cover prediction exploited Cellular Automata-Artificial Neural Network (CA-ANN) models. The result showed that built-up areas in Metro City during 2000-2020 period were increased by 25%; on the other hand, vegetation was decreased by 23%. Expansion pattern of built-up lands mimicked a ribbon pattern along primary and secondary roads, while the distribution was increasingly clustered. Distribution of built-up lands coincided with the distribution of high temperature. Simulation in 2030 showed an alarming increase of built-ups and decreasing vegetated lands. Keywords: CA-ANN, built-up areas, expansion patttern, urban heat island, vegetasi herbasea
Keyword: CA-ANN, built-up areas, expansion pattern, urban heat island, herbaceous vegetation