Judul: Daya Saing dan Aliran Perdagangan Biji Pala Indonesia di Pasar Dunia
Abstrak: Indonesia is listed as an exporter of nutmeg seeds with the highest export value during 2012 to 2020. However, the growth in the value of exports to the main export destination countries tend to be negative. In addition, the growth in the value of exports was lower than the growth in the value of imports of nutmeg. This means that Indonesia has not been able to optimize its export potential. Export development can be done by knowing the competitiveness of the export destination country and knowing the determinants of the nutmeg trade. Countries that have strong commodity competitiveness in export destination countries will be able to dominate and survive in the midst of global competition. This study aims to 1) determine the competitiveness of Indonesian nutmeg on the world market and in ten export destination countries, 2) determine the export position of nutmeg in export destination countries, 3) determine the factors that influence the flow of Indonesian nutmeg trade to destination countries. exports, and 4) knowing the export potential of Indonesian nutmeg seeds. The study uses secondary data in the form of panel data of whole and powdered nutmeg for the period 2012 to 2019 with research variables namely Indonesia's PDB, PDB of export destination countries, economic distance, population, and sanitary and phytosanitary dummy (SPS). The data is processed using revealed comparative advantage (RCA) analysis to determine competitiveness, dynamic revealed comparative advantage (DRCA) to determine the position of competitiveness, gravity model approach to determine the determinants of nutmeg trade, and trade potential analysis to determine the potential trade in nutmeg in Indonesia. future. The results of the analysis using Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) show that whole nutmeg seeds and powdered nutmeg from Indonesia are competitive in the international market. Indonesia's nutmeg seeds in ten export destination countries are also competitive, with the highest competitiveness of whole nutmeg seeds found in Italy and Germany, while the competitiveness of powdered nutmeg is highest in Germany and France. Based on the Dynamic Revealed Comparative Advantage (DRCA) analysis, the results show that the competitiveness growth of the two products has always been positive in Japan, thus bringing the competitiveness position in Japan to a rising star in the fourth period (2018-2020). The results of the gravity model approach show that Indonesia's GDP, GDP of export destination countries, and the SPS dummy have a negative effect on trade in whole nutmeg seeds, while economic distance and population have a positive iii effect. Meanwhile, the effect on the trade of powdered nutmeg by Indonesia's GDP, export destination GDP, population, and the SPS dummy is positive, while the economic distance is negative. In the future, Indonesia's exports of whole nutmeg seeds still have the potential to expand to all export destination countries. Meanwhile, the expansion of Indonesia's nutmeg powder exports is still possible to expand it to India, the United States, and Japan.
Keyword: competitiveness, gravity model, nutmeg, trade potential