Judul: Analysis of the Utilization Rate of the Indonesia-Pakistan Preferential Trade Agreement (IPPTA)
Abstrak: Salah satu perjanjian perdagangan internasional Indonesia adalah Indonesia-Pakistan Preferential Trade Agreement (IPPTA) yang diimplementasikan pada tahun 2013. Namun demikian, kinerja ekspor Indonesia ke Pakistan justru menurun pada tahun pertama implementasi. Selanjutnya, perjanjian tersebut direview dan kedua negara sepakat menandatangani Protokol Perubahan IPPTA pada tahun 2018. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengevaluasi utilisasi dan dampak IPPTA serta Protokol Perubahan terhadap nilai ekspor Indonesia ke Pakistan. Metode yang digunakan adalah analisis statistika deskriptif terhadap jumlah pos tarif dan nilai impor Pakistan dari Indonesia, serta pendekatan Difference-in-Differences (DID) menggunakan data ekspor Indonesia ke Pakistan pada level HS 8 digit. Pendekatan DID dilakukan dengan mempertimbangkan tiga kelompok kontrol berbeda dan tiga periode implementasi, yakni: IPPTA (versi pertama), Protokol Perubahan IPPTA, serta gabungan kedua periode tersebut. Hasil analisis statistika deskriptif menunjukkan bahwa IPPTA dan Protokol Perubahan memiliki utilisasi yang cukup baik dalam meningkatkan total nilai impor Pakistan dari Indonesia dengan dominasi dari kategori gainers sebesar 82,4 persen. Hasil Pendekatan DID menunjukkan tidak ditemukannya bukti statistik dampak positif setelah satu tahun implementasi IPPTA maupun Protokol Perubahan. Namun jika digunakan periode yang lebih panjang (sebelum IPPTA sampai dengan setelah Protokol Perubahan IPPTA), hasil analisis menunjukkan adanya dampak positif IPPTA terhadap nilai ekspor Indonesia ketika digunakan seluruh komoditas diluar modalitas sebagai kelompok kontrol., One of Indonesia's international trade agreements is the Indonesia-Pakistan Preferential Trade Agreement (IPPTA), which was implemented in 2013. However, Indonesia's export performance to Pakistan declined in the first year of implementation. Subsequently, the agreement was reviewed, and both countries agreed to sign the Protocol of Amendment to the IPPTA in 2018. This study aims to evaluate the utilization and impact of the IPPTA and the Protocol of Amendment on Indonesia's export value to Pakistan. The methods used include descriptive statistical analysis of the number of tariff lines and the value of Pakistan's imports from Indonesia, as well as the Difference-in-Differences (DID) approach using Indonesia's export data to Pakistan at the HS 8-digit level. The DID approach considers three different control groups and three implementation periods, namely: the original IPPTA, the Protocol of Amendment, and the combination of both periods. The results of the descriptive statistical analysis showed that the IPPTA and the Protocol of Amendment were fairly well utilized in increasing the total value of Pakistan's imports from Indonesia, with gainers dominating at 82.4 percent. The DID approach results indicate that there is no statistical evidence of a positive impact after one year of implementing the IPPTA or the Protocol of Amendment. However, when a longer period is considered (from before the IPPTA until after the Protocol of Amendment), the analysis indicates a positive impact of the IPPTA on Indonesia's export value when using all commodities outside modalities as the control group.
Keyword: Difference-in-Differences, Export, IPPTA, PTA, Utilization