Judul: Analisis Asosiasi Indikator Iklim dengan Hotspot di Indonesia Menggunakan Heterogeneus Correlation Map (HCM)
Abstrak: One of the major land and forest fires occurred in 1997, it was estimated that around 13 million hectares of land and forest were burned. According to experts, land and forest fires in that year were not an ordinary occurrence, but the impact of climate change caused by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO can cause dry season is longer than usual and increasing the chances of hotspots occurring. Therefore, knowledge of the ENSO phenomenon is important in land and forest fire management. Apart from the ENSO, there are several indicators that can have an impact on climate change in Indonesia, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), monsoon winds, and Sea Surface Temperature (SST). Aim of this research is to analyze how ENSO and IOD as indicators of global climate, and monsoon winds and local SST as indicators of local climate associated with land and forest fires in Indonesia. This research used Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) analysis which is presented in the Heterogenous Correlation Map (HCM). The data used for analyzed are hotspot data as indicator of land and forest fires, the Nino 3.4 index as ENSO indicator, DMI as IOD indicator, and the monthly average SST in the Karimata Strait and the Java Sea as indicator of local SST. As a consequence of seasonal climate patterns and annual variability in Indonesia, most land and forest fires in Indonesia occur during the dry season in the middle of the year. These incidents occur frequently in the provinces of South Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, West Kalimantan, Lampung and South Sumatra. However, there were also episodes of land and forest fires at the beginning of the year in several areas, such as in Riau province. The nino 3.4 is more associated with hotspots in the provinces of South Kalimantan, East Kalimantan and Central Kalimantan, while DMI is more associated with hotspots in the provinces of Jambi, Lampung, South Sumatra, West Kalimantan, South Kalimantan and Central Kalimantan. AUSMI with an east wind pattern is a pattern associated with hotspots in Indonesia, especially in years where zonal winds enter an upward phase more slowly. The decrease in SST in the Karimata Strait is associated with hotspots in the coastal part of Riau province that occurred at the beginning of the year, and SST in the Java Sea is associated with hotspots in the provinces of Lampung, South Sumatra, Jambi, West Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, and East Kalimantan., Salah satu kebakaran lahan dan hutan yang besar terjadi pada tahun 1997, diperkirakan sekitar 13 juta Ha lahan dan hutan yang terbakar. Menurut para ahli kebakaran lahan dan hutan pada tahun tersebut bukan kejadian biasa, melainkan dampak dari adanya perubahan iklim yang disebabkan El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO dapat menyebabkan musim kemarau yang lebih panjang daripada biasanya, sehingga peluang munculnya titik api lebih besar. Oleh karena itu, pengetahuan tentang fenomena ENSO menjadi penting dalam pengelolaan kebakaran lahan dan hutan. Selain ENSO, ada beberapa indikator yang bisa berdampak terhadap perubahan iklim di Indonesia seperti Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), monsoon wind, serta Suhu Permukaan Laut (SPL). Tujuan dalam
Keyword: El Nino-Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, Land and Forest Fire, Monsoon Wind, Sea Surface Temperature