Judul: Meteorological  Drought  Index Based on ECMWF Model Corrected for Characterization of Potential Forest  and Land  Fires
Abstrak: The occurrence of drought in Indonesia is almost an event that occurs every year. This drought affects many sectors and tends to occur more frequently. Indonesia is in 4th position (behind India, Japan and China) with potential losses of up to US 50 billion from the top 10 countries in the Asia Pacific region that have the potential to lose due to natural disasters and drought. Drought tends not to have a universal definition. The impact of drought is generally non-structural in nature so that the area of impact spreads wider than the damage caused by other natural hazards. The potential for drought can also increase if regional scale climate phenomena such as El Nino and positive Indian Ocean Dipole Mode appear. Drought conditions that are getting worse have resulted in a large number of forest and land fires occurring. The incidence of forest and land fires has had a very significant impact. The total losses due to forest and land fires in 2019 borne by Indonesia reached US5.2 billion, equivalent to Rp 72.95 trillion. At least 900,000 residents have had their respiratory health affected, and have had operational problems at 12 national airports. It is estimated that 620,201 hectares of forest and land were burned with the impact of losses of up to US157 million in damage to assets and US5 billion due to lost potential from economic activity. Forest fires can be identified by hotspots which can be obtained by utilizing MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer) remote sensing measurements on the Terra-Aqua satellite and / or by utilizing Himawari satellite imagery. Observing the sequence of events as described above, apart from anthropogenic factors, from a climatic perspective it is very important to be able to know the conditions of climate dynamics that exist in Indonesia (and the conditions of the dynamics of the global climate surrounding Indonesian territory which affect the dynamics of the atmosphere in Indonesia) as one trigger point in the process of starting a drought which could have an impact on the potential for forest and land fires. By utilizing the numerical weather prediction model output from the ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) it can be used to identify potential drought. To reduce the potential bias from the model output, validation and correction are necessary. The output of the model was validated and corrected using the Piani method and the Brier Skill Score to the climate observation data in the field from 774 selected rain observation posts. This step produces corrected ECMWF rainfall data which has a high correlation of 0.7844 at the significant level α = 0.05 with an RMSE value of 87.6 on the observed rainfall data. This validation and correction results in an increase in the output performance of the corrected model. This is indicated by the monthly variability of rainfall, which is initially not detected to be detected, and the bias correction value is smaller. The output of the corrected ECMWF model is used to calculate the drought index using the SPI (The Standardized Precipitation Index) method to describe meteorological drought
Keyword: hotspots, ECMWF, drought index, peatland, Sumatra