Judul: Land Use Planning for Paddy Field Development in Pandeglang Regency
Abstrak: Food security is a big issue in Indonesia due to the availability of agricultural land caused by land conversion, especially in Java Island, is continually decreasing. Food security is the condition to meet food demand for the state to individuals, as reflected in the availability of sufficient food, both in quantity and quality, safe, diverse, nutritious, equitable, and affordable, and does not conflict with religion, belief, and culture of the community, to live a healthy life, active life, and productive in a sustainable manner. Therefore, the availability of agricultural land is one of the things that should be considered to ensure future food security, since agricultural land has a comprehensive function covering economic, social, and environmental aspects. However, the trend of agricultural land conversion in Java Island is very concerning. Several policies have been issued to tackle this problem, mainly LP2B (protected agricultural area) and the zoning regulation in spatial planning. However, further directives on these policies must also be formulated to give a further insight and some more comprehensive strategies on agricultural development. Pandeglang Regency is the largest rice production area in Banten Province, with the agricultural sector as the main economic activity in this region. Pandeglang Regency has potential in the agricultural sector, and agricultural land for food agricultural commodities, especially lowland rice, has the potential to be developed. Pandeglang Regency is also experiencing growth due to the enactment of Tanjung Lesung as a Special Economic Zone and various infrastructure development. However, the allocation and strategy for the agricultural area, especially rice/paddy fields, are still lacking and not detailed enough. Therefore, the analysis of the availability and needs of food land can be used to determine the minimum need for food land in Pandeglang Regency. This research aims to give directives on planning and development for the paddy field in Pandeglang Regency by giving an insight on its characteristics, availability, suitability, and potential in each region to be developed based on the spatial analysis result. The dynamics of land use change over the last 13 years in Pandeglang Regency are dominated by the increase of settlement areas, and the decrease of paddy field in contrast. The tradeoff between settlement and paddy field appears to be disproportional, where the rate of increase in settlement area is significantly bigger than the decrease of paddy field, meaning that the settlement area also converts other land uses as well. The other land uses experienced fluctuating change, such as plantation, shrubs, mix garden and bare land. Then this landuse trend are followed with CA-Markov prediction with business as usual (BAU) scenario. The prediction reached a good level of accuracy with kappa index of 0.89, with the end-year for land use prediction are set at 2031 following the year of spatial planning policy. Land use prediction using a CA-Markov method finds out that under BAU condition, settlement areas will continue to increase until the year 2031, with the rate of annual increase stays roughly the same. Meanwhile, the paddy field conversion in 2031 seems to have slowed down, following the 2012-2018 trend. It happened due to
Keyword: land use prediction, agricultural development, multi-criteria decision making, land use prediction, land evaluation, agriculture development, multicriteria decision making