Judul: Farmer Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change in Strengthening Rice Sufficiency in Sumedang Regency, West Java Province
Abstrak: Greenhouse gas emission leads to global warming, which is fundamental to the current food security problem. An increase in global temperature of ~4°C or more above late-20th-century level, combined with increasing food demand, would pose large risks to food security globally and regionally. There are growing evidences that even at just 1°C of warming there are negative impacts for major crops like rice and corn. It is also indicated that the rate of global warming in the next decades is projected to be substantially higher than that in the last decades. Smallholder farmers, whose livelihood relies to the greatest extent on agriculture, have been reported worldwide to be one of those most affected by the adverse implication of climate change. Previous studies indicated that smallholder farmers have assumed some adaptation measures in their existing farming practices, which range from adjustment on planting calendar to investment on input and infrastructure. Their existing adaptations, however, have been reported to be inadequate and still leave substantial residual impacts untapped. The study aimed to examine existing farmer adaptive capacity to climate change and explore its future strengthening alternatives to improve the rice sufficiency at household level. Specifically, the objectives of the research were:(1) To verify the change of climatic condition in the study area and estimate its impact on rice yield under various types of existing farming practices, (2) To assess the effect of current and future climatic condition on farmers’ household rice sufficiency under the existing adaptation practices, (3) To assess farmers’ household vulnerability to the impact of current and future climatic condition on their household rice sufficiency, and (4) To identify the factors determining farmers’ existing adaptation practices. The assessment of current climate indicated an increasing trend in the annual average of minimum and maximum temperature (TMin and TMax) during 1981 – 2010, while the annual rainfall showed a decreasing trend during the same period. Furthermore, climate projection for near (2011 – 2040) and far-future (2041 – 2070) period generated by the 17 General Circulation Models (GCMs) under climate change scenario of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)4.5 also indicated that average annual rainfall has been projected to decrease by 6.81% and 7.34%, respectively. Meanwhile, the TMin and TMax were projected to increase by 0.65oC and 0.69oC for near-future, and then further increased by 1.23oC and 1.28oC for far-future, respectively. Similar changes in climatic condition were indicated to slightly higher extent under RCP8.5 for near- and far-future periods. The assessment of rice yield under current climate suggested that during 1990 – 2010, rice yield in the study area has been fluctuating. Furthermore, the simulated rice yield generated by CROPWAT indicated that a reduction in rice yield was projected to occur in the near- and far-future. Rice yield has been projected to decrease by 32.00% and 31.81%, in comparison to baseline, for nearfuture under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5, respectively. The reduction extended, with a slightly higher degree, to the far-future. The reduction was sensitive to variation in vii the existing farming practices. The shifting of planting time to better match rainfall pattern reduced the rice yield reduction by
Keyword: Climate change, Impact, Vulnerability, Adaptation