Judul: Potential Habitat and Spatial Distribution of Anoa (Bubalus spp.) in Lore Lindu National Park
Abstrak: Anoa (Bubalus spp.) is endemic to Indonesian islands of Sulawesi and Buton. These mammals are divided into two species: Mountain Anoa (Bubalus quarlesi) and Lowland Anoa (Bubalus depressicornis). Both live in undisturbed rainforest and avoid direct contact with human. This animal has been classified into endangered species by International Union of Conservation for Nature (IUCN), Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) and fully protected under Indonesian Law. Threat for Anoa is coming from illegal hunting and habitat degradation. Habitat loss or degradation caused by agriculture wood plantations, infrastructure development, and human settlement reported as serious threat for Anoa population by IUCN. This research aims to develop Anoa habitat suitability model using logistic regression and analyze ecological factors in Anoa’s habitat preference. Approximately 2,300 hectare research area in Toro village, Lore Lindu National Park has been analyzed in generated Anoa habitat suitability model. Logistic regression GIS coupled model use to predict Anoa habitat suitability in Lore Lindu National Park. Anoa presence and absence data were obtained from field survey while environmental variable used in model were taken from GIS data layer and remote sensing data. Environmental variable were consists of elevation, slope, distance from river, distance from settlement and distance from forest edge. Vegetation analysis also conducted in place where Anoa found. As result, distance from settlement, distance from forest edge, slope and altitude has significant factor while distance to river has insignificant factor for Anoa in prefering their habitat. The overall classification accuracy assessment was resulted on 93.2% with 93.64% absence area and 93.17% presence area correctly classified. Habitat suitability model tested using Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness of fit resulted 0.942 and Nagelkerke’s R2 score 76.3 % as result of variable representation in this model. The simulation result shows that suitable habitat for Anoa located in core zone area, deep in undisturbed forest. This result is consistent with Anoa behaviors that tend to avoid human activity area. This result also indicating there are human activities inside national park that force Anoa to move deeply to undisturbed forest area. From vegetation analysis result, 25 species from 14 families Anoa feed vegetation were found in sampling plot. Pinanga caessia Blume, Alpinia sp., Cyathea contamminans, Frecynetia insignis Blume, Syzygium accuminatissima, and Lythocarpus celebicus were dominated. Dominant feed vegetation indicated the feed supply still can meet Anoa demand. From morphological characteristic, two from five samples collected inside and around study area shown the characteristic of Lowland Anoa. The fact that inside and around study area is mountainous area has derive to possibility that Lowland Anoa has moving into mountainous area because pressure from human activities in lowland area around national park. Anoa habitat suitability was affected by human activities. Anoa sign that found deeply into forest indicated there are disturbance from human activities inside the forest. The species sample taken from hunter also indicated there are pressures in lowland area that dominated with settlement and plantation area. From the model, distances from settlement and distance from forest edge that represent human activities parameter become the most influence factor. Those facts indicated Anoa tends to
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