Judul: Pengaruh Swasembada Beras terhadap Kesejahteraan Petani di Indonesia: Pendekatan data panel dinamis
Abstrak: For decades, Indonesia has implemented Rice Self-Sufficiency (RSS) policy aimed at increasing domestic rice production and reducing imports. Over time, the policy is prioritized because rice shortages can lead to uncontrolled prices, increased poverty rates, and political instability. In the same time rice has become more vital than other local staple foods and positioning Indonesia as the third highest rice consumption per capita in the world. However, the constantly rising demand, driven by population growth and income increases, is not always met by domestic production. Claiming RSS will benefit farmers is debatable. Many people claim high dependency on rice would give power to suppliers, enable farmers to become price makers instead of price takers. Moreover, the policy is believed can protect rice farmers against cheap imported rice dumping on the market. However, on the other hand, it has been argued that farmers' characteristics have not changed significantly over the past 50 years. The majority of farmers are small-scale. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the effect of RSS achievement on farmers' welfare by using a dynamic panel data approach. The main results indicate that the RSS rate and GKG (dried unhusked grain) production are statistically insignificant in increasing Farmers' Terms of Trade (FToT) of food crops sector across all model estimations. This suggest that there is no evidence that increasing rice production and achieving RSS has benefited rice farmers. The only variable that is significant in the model is GKP (dried harvested grain) price. However, due to the rice price has asymmetric characteristics and inefficiency in the rice supply chain and other complicating farmers’ issues, the government policy is insufficient to improve the welfare of farmers. Furthermore, rice cultivation appears to benefit middlemen, wholesalers, and retailers, rather than small farmers. The ratio between trade margins and farmers' share in rice markets has not changed for many years. The share is always 30% for farmers and 70% for margin traders. While increasing productivity through technology adoption is one solution, diversifying sources of production and consumption may be the right choice to avoid the trap of rice dependence and increase farmers’ income. Indonesia has potential for non-rice food resources. Therefore, this would involve facilitating public services to assist farmers in their crop choices, rather than distorting policy to promote increased rice production., Selama beberapa dekade, Indonesia telah menerapkan kebijakan swasembada beras yang bertujuan untuk meningkatkan produksi beras dalam negeri dan mengurangi impor. Kebijakan ini menjadi prioritas karena kekurangan suplai beras dapat menyebabkan harga yang tidak terkontrol dan berakibat pada peningkatan kemiskinan, dan ketidakstabilan politik. Pada saat yang sama, beras telah menjadi sangat vital dibandingkan dengan makanan pokok lokal lainnya dimana Indonesia menjadi negara dengan konsumsi beras per kapita tertinggi ketiga di dunia. Namun, permintaan yang terus meningkat, dipicu oleh pertumbuhan penduduk dan peningkatan pendapatan, tidak selalu dapat dipenuhi oleh produksi dalam negeri. Klaim bahwa swasembada beras akan menguntungkan petani menjadi masih menjadi perdebatan. Pada satu sisi, ketergantungan tinggi pada beras dinilai akan memberikan keutungan kepada pemasok, sehingga petani menjadi pembuat harga daripada hanya penerima harga. Selain itu, kebijakan ini diyakini dapat melindungi petani beras
Keyword: rice self-sufficiency, farmers, dynamic panel data