Judul: Study of Land-use change for referral of spatial pattern arrangement in the Gedong Wani Production Forest Area, Lampung Province.
Abstrak: According to Law No. 41/1999 regarding Forestry, production forest has principal function of producing timber forest products, non- timber and other environment services. However, it is not found in the Gedong Wani production forest area Lampung province, as the region has grown to become the definitive rural land uses such as residential, farm and forest plantations that do not function as intended. This study aims : (1) to analyze the development of the village in a forest area, (2) to analyze land use and land use changes in the period 2000-2013, (3) to analyze influence of physical factors of land, demography and forest land use policies on land use change in forest area, (4) to predict landuse within a period of 13 years ahead and (5) to formulate policy directives of spatial patterns arrangement of forest area in order to function as intended. The study was conducted in Gedong Wani production forests area in South Lampung and East Lampung regencies. The method was used as follow : (1) to analyze of rural development using schallogram analysis, (2) to analyze land use through interpretation of satellite imagery Landsat 5 TM in 2000 and Landsat 8 TM In 2013, landuse changed analysis through overlay with Geographic Information Systems (GIS), (3) landuse prediction with Cellular Automata approach, (4) to analyze physical aspects of the land , demography and landuse forest policies that influence land use through regression logistic Binner, (5) to formulate refferal of spatial patterns arrangement of forest production area through synthesis of land-use and rural development analysis with consider of utilization and using of forest area according to Act No. 41/1999. The results showed that there were 39 villages in GedongWani production forest area with the highest growth rate in 2011 found in Jati Baru village Tanjung Bintang districts South Lampung regency. Land-use change between 2000 and 2013 show an increase in smallholder plantation and built up area, conversely, a decrease in extent of dry land cultivation and forests. In terms of the physical aspects of the land, demography and landuse forest policy, the factors that influence land use change into dry land cultivation and built up area are land-use forest policy and addition of number of people. Land -use change posibility occurs on land that has borrow-use permits of forest area for industrial and land rights that have been change of forest land for development of the new city of Lampung as well as lands that have not allocated the rights / permits and forest use, while the chances of a change in land use to smallholder plantations occur on Ultisol soil type. Prediction of land use in year of 2026 based on the assumption of behavioral changes in land use in the periode of previous years, showed an increase in smallholder plantations and built-up area, and decrease in dry land cultivation and forest area. Policy directives of spatial patterns arrangement of production forests is to regulate the use of existing land use and the use of appropriate mechanisms of production forest area according to Act No. 41/1999 which adds forest area
Keyword: direction, forest production, land use, prediction, village