Judul: The Competitiveness and Factors Affecting the Exports of Indonesian Fresh Milk and Dairy Products to Major Destination Countries
Abstrak: Susu merupakan salah satu komoditas hasil peternakan yang perlu dikembangkan. Ketersediaan susu di Indonesia belum mencukupi kebutuhan sehingga masih bergantung pada susu impor. Namun, produksi susu nasional tahun 2015-2019 selalu meningkat setiap tahunnya. Kondisi ini menjadi peluang bagi Indonesia untuk meningkatkan ekspornya. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis daya saing dan faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi ekspor susu murni, es krim, susu kental manis, dan yoghurt ke negara tujuan utama selama 2015-2019. Metode analisis yang digunakan pada penelitian ini yaitu RCA, EPD, X-Model, dan data panel. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa es krim dan yoghurt secara rata-rata memiliki daya saing kuat dan pengembangan pasar optimis dengan mayoritas posisi pasar Rising Star di mana volume ekspornya secara signifikan dipengaruhi oleh PDB riil dan populasi negara tujuan serta harga ekspor. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa susu murni secara rata-rata memiliki daya saing lemah dan pengembangan pasar potensial dengan posisi pasar Rising Star dan Lost Opportunity di mana ekspor susu murni Indonesia secara signifikan dipengaruhi oleh PDB riil negara tujuan dan harga ekspor. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa susu kental manis secara rata-rata memiliki daya saing lemah dan pengembangan pasar kurang potensial dengan mayoritas posisi pasar Rising Star dan Falling Star di mana ekspornya signifikan dipengaruhi olah PDB riil negara tujuan dan harga ekspor., Milk is one of the livestock commodities that need to be developed. The availability of milk in Indonesia has not been able to meet the needs so it still depends on imported milk. However, the national milk production during the 2015-2019 period has always increased from year to year. This condition is an opportunity for Indonesia to increase its exports. This study aims to analyze the competitiveness and factors that influence the export of fresh milk, ice cream, sweetened condensed milk, and yogurt to the main destination countries during the 2015-2019 period. The analytical methods used in this study are RCA, EPD, X-Model, and panel data regression. The results of the analysis show that ice cream and yogurt on average have strong competitiveness and optimistic market development with the majority of the Rising Star market position where the export volume is significantly influenced by real GDP and the population of the destination country and also the export price. The results showed that on average fresh milk has weak competitiveness and potential market development with the Rising Star and Lost Opportunity market positions where the export of Indonesian fresh milk is significantly influenced by the real GDP of the destination country and the export price. The results of the analysis show that sweetened condensed milk has weak competitiveness and less potential market development on average with the majority of the Rising Star and Falling Star market positions, where exports are significantly influenced by the real GDP of the destination countries and export prices.
Keyword: dairy products, EPD, fresh milk, panel data, RCA, X-Model, dairy products, EPD, fresh milk, panel data, RCA, X-Model