Judul: Economic and Risk Analysis of Plant Conversion of Rubber to Oil Palm Plantation in Pemayung District Batang Hari Regency Jambi
Abstrak: Rubber is a strategic commodity in almost all of regencies in the province of Jambi and has become a part of culture of Jambi community. For a plant that has become a superior commodity and has been rooted in the community, the government of Jambi province continues expanding and maintaining Rubber cultivation area. However, lately many companies and rubber farmers in Jambi Province converted their rubber crop into oil palm crop as it is considered more profitable economically. The Background of the decline of the interest of the farmers to the rubber crop is caused by the fluctuating prices and low productivity of the rubber, a large amount of rubber plants that are old, damaged and unproductive, the usage of non superior clone seedlings as well as the conditions of the rubber plantation that resembles forest. These conditions encouraged farmers to convert the rubber into oil palm plantation. Objectives of this research are: (1) to estimate the conversion rate from rubber into oil palm; (2) to evaluate whether economic benefits of oil palm is greater than that of rubber; (3) to identify some factors affecting farmers in converting their commodity; (4) to analyze the risks faced by farmers in implementing such conversion; and (5) to analyze the optimal combination of land use between rubber and oil palm based on portfolio risk theory. The research was conducted in the District Pemayung, Batang Hari Regency, Province of Jambi. The selection of the study site is purposively. The research was conducted in December 2012 to March 2013. The data used is the time series and cross section data. The type of data used in this study is primary data obtained through interviews using a questionnaire with rubber farmers and oil palm farmers who initially were rubber farmers. It is also used secondary data obtained from Batang Hari Regency Plantation Office, District Pemayung, Bappeda Batang Hari Regency, Office of Agriculture and Plantation Extension, and BPS. Research results showed the rate of conversion of rubber land in the District Pemayung Batang Hari regency, during period of 2003 to 2011, rubber plant conversion was quite high, achieving about 2,214 hectares (ha). However, there were also a program of new rubber plantation development amounting 1,903 ha in the same period. The net rubber land conversion was only 311 ha in the period of 2003 to 2011.This became evident that there has been a conversion of smallholder rubber in 2003-2011 in District of Pemayung Batang Hari. Based on feasibility analysis, including NPV, IRR, and Net B/C for rubber and oil palm during the period of 25 years, the value of NPV, IRR, and Net B/C oil palm plantation are significantly higher than those of rubber i.e., Rp 52.478.251, 19%, and 2,59 compared to Rp 105.982.309, 29%, and 4,48. Respectively these confirmed our hypothesis that oil palm is financially more beneficial than rubber. The factors that significantly affect land conversion is farmers time allocation, rubber plants damaged condition, rubber pests, and trial and error factors. Risk analysis indicated that the risk of monoculture rubber plantation is larger than that of monoculture
Keyword: rubber, oil palm, plant conversion, risk, portofolio risk