Judul: Competitiveness and Export Development Analysis of Indonesian Coconut Derivative Products in International Market
Abstrak: Indonesia merupakan negara penghasil kelapa terbesar di dunia, namun produktivitas dan luas area lahannya cenderung menurun dengan ekspor yang sebagian besar berupa produk mentah. Alternatif ekspor ke produk dengan nilai lebih tinggi diperlukan untuk mempertahankan nilai ekspor Indonesia. Penelitian ini bertujuan 1) menganalisis daya saing dan pengembangan ekspor produk turunan kelapa Indonesia di pasar internasional menggunakan metode Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Export Product Dynamic (EPD), dan X-model potential export product; 2) menganalisis daya saing serta dekomposisi pertumbuhan ekspor produk turunan kelapa Indonesia jika dibandingkan dengan pesaingnya di pasar internasional menggunakan metode Constant Market Share Analysis (CMSA); 3) menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi nilai ekspor produk turunan kelapa Indonesia di pasar internasional menggunakan metode Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). Hasil analisis daya saing berupa keunggulan komparatif dan keunggulan kompetitif, serta klasterisasi pengembangan ekspor menunjukkan bahwa desiccated coconut (DC) dan activated carbon (AC) Indonesia memiliki pengembangan pasar ekspor yang optimis di Cina, sedangkan brown sugar (BS) Indonesia memiliki pengembangan pasar ekspor yang optimis di Amerika Serikat. Pertumbuhan ekspor DC Indonesia, DC Filipina, AC Indonesia, dan AC India lebih disebabkan oleh efek daya saing. Pertumbuhan ekspor BS Indonesia lebih disebabkan oleh efek distribusi pasar, sedangkan BS Thailand oleh efek komposisi komoditas. Hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa variabel Gross Domestic Product (GDP) negara tujuan ekspor secara positif signifikan mempengaruhi nilai ekspor produk turunan kelapa Indonesia, sedangkan populasi negara tujuan, dan real effective exchange rate (REER) tidak signifikan mempengaruhi nilai ekspor produk turunan kelapa Indonesia., Indonesia is the largest coconut producer in the world, but its productivity and land area tended to decrease with export mostly in primary product. Alternatives exports of products with higher value are needed to maintain the value of Indonesian exports. The study aims to 1) analyze the competitiveness and export development of Indonesian coconut derivative products in international market using Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Export Product Dynamic (EPD), and X-model potential export product; 2) analyze the competitiveness and decomposition of the export growth of Indonesian coconut derivative products compared to its competitors in international market using Constant Market Share Analysis (CMSA); 3) analyze the factors that affect the export value of Indonesian derivative products using ordinary least squres (OLS). The competitiveness analysis in the form of comparative advantage and competitive advantage as well as the export development clusterization analysis showed that Indonesian desiccated coconut (DC) and activated carbon (AC) has an optimistic export market development in China while Indonesian brown sugar (BS) has an optimistic export market development in United State of America. The growth of export of Indonesian DC, Philippines DC, Indonesian AC, and Philippines AC is more due to competitiveness effect. Indonesia’s BS export growth is due more to market distribution effect while Thailand’s BS is due to commodity composition effect. The estimation showed that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) importing country significantly positive affects the export value of Indonesian coconut derivative products while population importing country and real effective exchange rate (REER) unsignificantly affect it.
Keyword: Clusterization, Comparative Advantage, Competitive Advantage, Export Value, X-model potential export product