Judul: Projection of Production and Consumption of Electricity in Indonesia Using Renewable Energy Scenario and It’s Relation to GHG Emissions
Abstrak: Konsumsi energi listrik di Indonesia selalu tumbuh setiap tahunnya. Populasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi berpengaruh terhadap konsumsi energi listrik. Proses produksi energi listrik dalam mencukupi kebutuhan energi listrik nasional masih bersumber dari energi fosil. Penggunaan bahan bakar fosil dalam pembangkit listrik berkontribusi dalam meningkatnya emisi gas rumah kaca. Potensi energi baru terbarukan sebagai sumber energi rendah emisi belum dimanfaatkan secara optimal. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah memproyeksikan dan menganalisis tingkat produksi dan konsumsi energi listrik disetiap sektor kelistrikan di Indonesia serta emisi GRK yang dihasilkan dengan menggunakan skenario BaU, EBT dan Covid-19. Total proyeksi produksi energi listrik di Indonesia pada tahun 2050 dengan skenario BaU, EBT dan Covid-19 masing-masing sebesar 2.723.780,90 GWh, 2.43 0.434,50 GWh, dan 1.854.526,80 GWh. Total proyeksi konsumsi listrik di Indonesia dengan skenario BaU dan Covid-19 masing-masing sebesar 2.641.061,00 GWh dan 1.745.719,00 GWh. Pada skenario BaU terjadi kelebihan produksi listrik sebesar 82.719,9 GWh sedangkan dengan skenario EBT terjadi kekurangan pasokan listrik sebesar 210.625,5 GWh dan pada skenario Covid-19 terjadi kelebihan pasokan listrik sebesar 108.807,8 GWh. Emisi GRK terbesar dihasilkan dengan proyeksi skenario BaU sebesar 1.896,7 juta ton CO2e. Terjadi penurunan emisi GRK dengan skenario EBT sebesar 318,6 juta ton CO2e dan sebesar 580,5 juta ton CO2e dengan skenario Covid-19., Electricity consumption in Indonesia is always growing every year. Population and economic growth affect the consumption of electrical energy. The process of producing electrical energy to sufficed national electricity needs is still sourced from fossil energy. Utilization of fossil fuels in power plants contributes to increased greenhouse gas emissions. The potential of renewable energy as a source of low emission energy has not been utilized optimally. The purpose of this research is to project and to analyze the level of electricity production and consumption in every electricity sector in Indonesia as well as GHG emissions produced by using BaU, EBT, and Covid-19 scenarios. Total projected electricity production in Indonesia in 2050 with BaU, EBT, and Covid-19 scenarios are 2,723,780.90 GWh, 2,430,434.50 GWh, and 1,854,526.80 GWh. The total projected electricity consumption in Indonesia with BaU and Covid-19 scenarios are 2,641,061.00 GWh and 1,745,719.00 GWh. In the BaU secenario, the excess of electricity production amounted to 82.719,9 GWh, while in the EBT scenario there is a shortage of electricity supply amounted to 210.625,5 GWh, in Covid-19 scenario there is excess supply of electricity amounted to 108.807,8 GWh. Projection of greenhouse gas emissions with BaU scenario amounted to 1.896,7 million tons CO2e. There was a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions under the EBT scenario amounted to 318.6 tons CO2e and 580,5 million tons CO2e under the Covid-19 scenario.
Keyword: Energy Consumption, Energy Production, Electrical Energy Projection, GHG, Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System