Judul: Evaluasi Kesinambungan Fiskal Menggunakan Model Dinamika Utang Publik
Abstrak: Kebijakan fiskal merupakan salah satu kebijakan yang mengatur pengelolaan anggaran pengeluaran dan pendapatan negara. Secara umum kebijakan fiskal yang baik adalah kebijakan fiskal yang berkesinambungan. Hal itu diindikasikan oleh tingkat utang negara bersangkutan yang cenderung turun. Kebijakan fiskal yang berkesinambungan ini dapat dipelajari menggunakan model dinamika utang publik yang diubah menjadi rasio utang terhadap PDB. Perubahan kekonvergenan kurva rasio utang terhadap PDB dapat dilihat dari perubahan parameter yang digunakan. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa perubahan parameter dapat mengubah bentuk kurva rasio utang terhadap PDB menjadi konstan, konvergen, atau divergen. Dari pembahasan dan simulasi diperoleh rasio utang terhadap PDB untuk negara Prancis, Jerman, Italia dan Amerika Serikat konvergen ke 0.415, 0.012, 0.813 dan 0.316, sedangkan rasio utang terhadap PDB Indonesia konvergen ke 1.206. Kebijakan fiskal berkesinambungan jika kurva rasio utang terhadap PDB memiliki kekonvergenan antara nol hingga satu.
Keyword: kesinambungan fiskal, model dinamika utang publik.

Judul: Analisis Hubungan Pinjaman Luar Negeri dan Kebijakan Fiskal di Indonesia
Abstrak: Indonesia is one of many developing countries that use foreign debt in its development. Foreign debt is one of aspects in fiscal policy. Accumulation of foreign debt every year has a relation with fiscal policy instruments such as government expenditure and tax revenue. Foreign debt also affected by economic growth and international interest rate. This research will discuss the analysis of the relation of foreign debt and fiscal policy in Indonesia. Analysis tools that used in this research are Granger causality method, Vector Auto Regression (VAR), Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Impulse Response Function (IRF), and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD). VECM estimation model result shows that in the short term equation, foreign debt is positively and significantly affecting the debt itself, while in the long term equation, all variables significantly affecting foreign debt which are Gross Domestic Product, government expenditure, tax revenue, and international interest rate. Gross Domestic Product positively affecting foreign debt. Government expenditure, tax revenue, and international interest rate is negatively affecting foreign debt. Result of IRF shows the same result with VECM estimation model for the effect of shocks from Gross Domestic Product, tax revenue, and international interest rate toward foreign debt. However, result of IRF for government expenditure shocks shows positively affecting foreign debt. Foreign debt shocks is affected by the debt itself that contribute with higher proportion in short term. While for long term, foreign debt is affected by the debt itself and other macroeconomic variables such as Gross Domestic Product, government expenditure, tax revenue, and international interest rate, but the effect of Gross Domestic Product toward foreign debt is higher than other variables.
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Judul: Aktivitas Antibakteri Minyak Biji Pala (Myristica fragrans H) Terenkapsulasi pada Pure Jambu Biji Merah (Psidium guajava L)
Abstrak: Preservation of fruit puree is highly dependent on the chemical preservatives and frozen storage temperature. Some species of plants have inhibitory activity of microbes and could be developed as a natural preservatives, such as nutmeg seed oil. Antibacterial activity of nutmeg seed oil encapsulated against Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, dan Lactobacillus delbrueckii with concentrations 0,06%, 0,12%, and 0,60% (w/v) were analyzed and applied into red guava puree. The inhibitory activities were indicated by decreased amount of bacteria with certain time by pour plate methode. The result showed that S. aureus was the most sensitive bacteria while L. delbrueckii was the most resistant bacteria. Concentration MBPTe 0,6% and contact time 24 hours can decrease S. aureus (2,14 log CFU/ml), E. coli (0,92 log CFU/ml), and L. delbrueckii (0,44 log CFU/ml). Application in red guava pure showed concentration 1,2% and contact time 6 hours reduced S. aureus (3,20 log CFU/ml) and E. coli (2,59 log CFU/ml) while L. delbrueckii after contact 24 hours (1,17 log CFU/ml).
Keyword: red guava puree, preservative, nutmeg seed oil, encapsulation