Spring Statement — House of Lords, 2019-03-20
Topic: Macroeconomics
Michael Bates (Conservative, Centre-right): I am sorry—delete "even" from the record. The right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Chester, whose point about housing I will come back to in a minute, referred to it. The noble Lords, Lord Leigh, Lord Gadhia, Lord Bilimoria and Lord Suri, recognised that progress had been made despite the headwinds. It is absolutely right that we recognise that that progress has been made because British business and enterprise up and down the country—and around the world—is making a Herculean effort, creating jobs, wealth and buoyant tax revenues. These revenues are coming into the Exchequer, giving us the opportunity to look at them Across most of the contributions, there was a focus on public services and public spending. As I mentioned, the spending review will be in the summer and conclude in time for the Budget for the autumn, which will rely on it. Contributions effectively broke down into four areas. The noble Lords, Lord Macpherson and Lord Hain, and the noble Earl, Lord Listowel, referred to social care. The noble Lords, Lord Tunnicliffe and Lord Bilimoria, referred to policing, and the noble Lord, Lord Scriven, alluded to the tragic knife crime situation in Sheffield. The right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Chester, the noble Lord, Lord Wakeham, and the noble Baroness, Lady Thornhill, referred to housing. The noble Lord, Lord Shipley, and the noble Earl, Lord Lytton, addressed local government finance Two other areas, which were grouped together, were the challenges of the changing nature of tax revenue and collection. The attraction of statutory land tax, which the noble Lord, Lord Wakeham, referred to, is that it is very easy to collect. The changing nature of tax is making collecting tax more challenging. The noble Lord, Lord Wakeham, the noble Earl, Lord Lytton, my noble friend Lord Leigh and the noble Viscount, Lord Chandos, referred to that challenge and ways to address it. Coupled with that is business confidence, which the noble Lords, Lord Gadhia, Lord Suri, Lord Northbrook and Lord Davies, referred to I will use the bulk of my time to address the questions raised as a result of those contributions. Several noble Lords asked how the Brexit dividend might be funded. The OBR’s Spring Statement forecast that business investment is weak. The noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, referred to that, and we acknowledge that in the near term. However, as uncertainty wanes, it picks up to 2.3% in 2020 and grows stronger at this pace from 2021 onwards. GDP growth is forecast to be 1.2% in 2019 before picking up to 1.4% in 2020 and 1.6% from 2021 onwards The noble Lords, Lord Tunnicliffe and Lord Hain, as well as several others, referred to infrastructure. We have increased the National Productivity Investment Fund to £37 billion to support key infrastructure up and down the country. Public investment is at its highest sustained level in 40 years The noble Lord, Lord Bilimoria, and the noble Earl, Lord Lytton, referred to Making Tax Digital—indeed, the noble Lord, Lord Wakeham, focused on that and the noble Lord, Lord Hain, touched on it. Research now shows the high level of awareness among business and tax professionals: eight out of 10 businesses were aware at the end of last year and over 80% of those had already started preparing. Of VAT returns, 98% are already done online The disguised remuneration loan charge was raised quite extensively, by my noble friend Lord Northbrook; by the noble Lord, Lord Wakeham, on behalf of the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth; and by the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, with her work on the all-party parliamentary group. Disguised remuneration schemes are and always were contrived tax avoidance. It is not normal or reasonable to be paid loans that are not repaid in practice; my noble friend Lord Wakeham was right in his sage advice on that, as in so much other advice he has given over the years. It is the individual’s responsibility to ensure the accuracy of his or her tax return. HMRC is pursuing the promoters of disguised remuneration schemes and has been investigating over 100 promoters. In the last year, HMRC has taken litigation action against 10 scheme promoters I turn to universal credit and welfare, which the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Chester referred to and the noble Lord, Lord Shipley—