Financial Statement — House of Commons, 2015-03-18
Topic: Macroeconomics
George Gideon Oliver Osborne (Conservative, Centre-right): Since the pound goes further these days, now is a good time to confirm the design of the new £1 coin. Based on the brilliant drawing submitted by 15-year-old David Pearce, a school pupil from Walsall, the new 12-sided pound coin will incorporate emblems from all four nations—for we are all part of one United Kingdom. I now turn to the national debt. Lower unemployment means less welfare. Compared with the autumn statement, welfare bills are set to be an average of £3 billion a year lower. Lower inflation means lower interest charges on Government gilts: those interest charges are now expected to be almost £35 billion lower than just a few months ago Rising unemployment and compounding debt interest contributed to our national debt problem, but they were not the only cause. The previous Government increased debt by £192 billion bailing out the banks and sent the national debt rocketing up by a third We have already sold the branches of Northern Rock and raised £9 billion from Lloyds shares. Now we go further. Today I can announce that we are launching a sale of £13 billion of the mortgage assets we still hold from the bailouts of Northern Rock and of Bradford & Bingley. Lloyds bank has returned to profit and is paying a dividend, so we can continue our exit from that bailout, too. We will sell at least a further £9 billion of Lloyds shares in the coming year. The previous Government put taxpayers’ money into the banks and this Government are getting it back The bank sales, the lower debt interest and the lower welfare bills present us with a choice. We could treat them as a windfall, even though we know the public finances need further repair. With an election looming, some of my immediate predecessors may have been tempted to do this, but that would be deeply irresponsible. We would be spending money we did not really have and racking up borrowing that our country could not afford. We would be repeating all the mistakes of the last Government instead of fixing those mistakes Today, the central judgment of this Budget is this: we will use the resources from the bank sales and the lower interest payments and the lower welfare bills to pay down the national debt. We put economic security first, for higher national debt leaves our nation exposed, harms potential growth and costs taxpayers billions of pounds in debt interest. That would be throwing away billions of pounds we should be using to fund our public services and lower taxes Five years ago, national debt was soaring. That was why in my first Budget I set a target that we would have the national debt falling as a share of GDP by 2015-16, the last year of this Parliament. The eurozone crisis made that task here at home all the more difficult and for much of the past five years it looked like we might fall short. The Leader of the Opposition confidently predicted we would fail and the shadow Chancellor repeated that prediction last week, but I can announce to the House that the hard work and sacrifice of the British people has paid off. The original debt target I set out in my first Budget has been met. We will end this Parliament with Britain’s national debt share falling. The sun is starting to shine and we are fixing the roof The OBR reports today that debt as a share of GDP falls from 80.4% in 2014-15 to 80.2% in 2015-16. It keeps falling to 79.8% in 2016-17, then down to 77.8% the following year, and to 74.8% in 2018-19 before it reaches 71.6% in 2019-20 National debt as a share of our national income has been increasing every single year since 2001. Those 13 years amount to the longest year-on-year rise in our national debt since the end of the 17th century. Today we bring that shameful record of irresponsibility to an end and make sure we pay down our national debt. There is a consequence for our fiscal plans. As the national debt share is falling a year earlier than forecast at the autumn statement, the squeeze on public spending ends a year earlier too In the final year of this decade, 2019-20, public spending will grow in line with the growth of the economy. We can do that while still running a healthy surplus to bear down on our debt—a state neither smaller than we need nor bigger than we can afford. For those interested in the history of these things, that will mean state spending as a share of our national income of the same size as Britain had in 2000. That is the year before spending got out of control and the national debt started its inexorable rise When we came to office, the deficit stood at more than 10% of our national income, one of the highest of any major advanced economy and the largest in our peacetime history. The IMF says we have achieved the largest, most sustained reduction in our structural deficit of any major economy. Today, the OBR confirms that it now stands at less than half of the deficit we inherited, but at 5% this year, it is still far too high and it must come down. With our plan, it does. The deficit falls to 4% in 2015-16, then down to 2% the following year and down again to 0.6% the year after that. The deficit is lower in every year than at the autumn statement In 2018-19, Britain will have a budget surplus of 0.2%, followed by a forecast surplus of 0.3% in 2019-20. We will also comfortably meet our fiscal mandate and Britain will be running a surplus for the first time in 18 years. That leads to borrowing. Every one of the borrowing numbers is lower than at the autumn statement. We inherited annual borrowing of over £150 billion from the last Government. This year borrowing is set to fall to £90.2 billion, £1 billion lower than expected at the autumn statement. It falls again in 2015-16 to £75.3 billion, then to £39.4 billion the year after that, before falling to £12.8 billion. In total that is £5 billion less borrowing than we forecast just three months ago. In 2018-19, we reach an overall surplus of £5.2 billion, a £1 billion improvement compared with December. In 2019-20 we are forecast to run a surplus of £7 billion Growth is up; unemployment is down; borrowing is down in every year of the forecast; we reach a surplus—all contributing to a national debt now falling as a share of national income. Out of the red and into the black—Britain is back paying its way in the world today Lower borrowing and falling debt as a share of GDP will continue only with a credible plan to control public spending and welfare. As we end the Parliament, we can measure the scale of the achievement. The administrative costs of central Government will be down by 40%. We have legislated for welfare savings of over £21 billion a year, and because savings have been driven by efficiency and reform, the quality of public services has not gone down—it has gone up. Satisfaction with the NHS is rising year on year; crime is down 20%; 1 million more children attend good or outstanding schools—but the job of repairing our public finances is not done, and here is a very important point that the country needs to understand. National debt as a share of GDP is now falling and we will only keep it falling if we commit to the fiscal path set out in this Budget. If we deviate from this path, if we go slower or borrow more, the national debt share will not keep falling—it will start rising again After all the hard work of the British people over the past five years to reach this point, that reversal would be a tragedy. Britain is on the right track; we must not turn back. In order to deliver that falling debt share we need to achieve the £30 billion further savings that are necessary by 2017-18. I am clear exactly how that £30 billion can be achieved: £13 billion from Government Departments; £12 billion from welfare savings; and £5 billion from tax avoidance, evasion and aggressive tax planning. We have done it in this Parliament; we can do it in the next The distributional analysis we publish today confirms that the decisions across this Parliament mean that the rich are making the biggest contribution to deficit reduction. That has been true at every fiscal event under this Government. I said we would all be in this together and here is the proof—[Interruption.] Compared with five years ago, inequality is down, child poverty is down, youth unemployment—[Interruption.]