Higher Education Reform — House of Lords, 2022-02-28
Topic: Education
Maeve Christina Mary Sherlock (Labour, Centre-left): My Lords, in May 2019, the then Prime Minister, Theresa May, launched the report of the Augar review. That was a long time ago, and it feels like a very long time ago. I wish I could say that the time has been well used, but let us have a look at what has been put out in this report First, there are changes to student loans. From the academic year 2023-24, the interest rate on loans will be changed to RPI for everybody, which is interesting, because Ministers keep telling me that RPI is no longer an official statistic because of concerns over its methodology. I can only assume that, somehow, it is not good enough when you are paying money out to benefit recipients but it is fine when you are taking money away from students. If only the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, were here, I think he would have something to say about that Secondly, it reduces the repayment threshold to £25,000 and increases the repayment term to 40 years—much of a working life. For those on the current loan scheme, the repayment threshold will stay at the current level until 2024-25, which, given the current inflation rate, is quite a bit of fiscal drag. The effect of these measures together is highly regressive, hitting the lowest earners the hardest Paul Johnson of the IFS said this about it: "looked at from the point of view of progressivity, redistribution, winners and losers, the reforms look truly horrible. Low-to-middle-earning graduates could be made about £20,000 worse off over their lifetime by the changes; the highest earners could benefit by £25,000." The equality analysis published alongside the consultation document said that "among new borrowers, the largest proportional increases in lifetime repayments will be from lower earners … by 174% for those in the 4th decile" Meanwhile, "the highest lifetime earners among new borrowers will experience large decreases in lifetime repayments (down 26%)" Why have the Government chosen to reform the loan system in a way which so profoundly benefits higher earners and hits those on lower incomes If noble Lords are wondering what the attraction of this particular approach is, it is perhaps worth mentioning that, thanks to a quirk of government accounting rules, these changes make the public finances look quite a bit better, but only in the short term. The IFS says that it will take about £1 billion off the cost of the student loan scheme, but: "We expect the budget deficit to fall by about £5 billion in 2023 as a result of the changes, with subsequent hits to the deficit further down the road as new loans accumulate less interest." It finishes, drily: "This will please the Treasury." Indeed it will However, this will not please many people because the pain does not fall equally in other ways. The equality analysis says that women, disabled people, some ethnic minorities and those from certain regions are likely to face increased lifetime repayments. Men gain and women lose. On average, men will repay around £5,500 less and women will pay £6,600 more. The IFS notes a remarkable comment: "the taxpayer cost of funding men’s student loans will actually increase as a result of the reform … the saving on women’s student loans alone is greater than the total at £1.6 billion." Women students are not only paying for the reduced cost to the Exchequer; they are paying for the men’s changes as well. The Minister will doubtless say that this discrimination is not intentional, it is just that women earn less. But the Government know that women earn less across their lifetime. So, having known that, can the Minister tell the House what consideration was given to the differential impact of these proposals before deciding on them The Government are also consulting on other measures, including reintroducing government controls over student numbers. But not just by a global figure; they are consulting on whether to control them by sector, provider, subject, level or even by mode of study. Are the Government planning to do all of them? Might they do them all? Could the Government conceive of a world in which the Secretary of State could decide that physics is in but history is out? Could he close down the music department at Lindchester University completely? Could he decree that all computing is going to be done in FE from now on? This may not be their plan, but there is no way to tell from the documents published what their plan is. So could the Government give the House some hints They are also consulting on minimum eligibility requirements, including an option of requiring level 4 or above—that is a grade C in old money—in maths and English at GCSE. I found it quite hard to work out the numbers affected, because the tables in the equality analysis are quite confusing, but the Minister may be able to shed some light on that. I am pretty sure this will have a differential effect with regard to region and disadvantage It is not just about access to university; it is about access to the loan book. The Minister can confirm that presumably a student whose parents—or who themselves—could pay fees upfront has no problem, but then what happens to the more than half of pupils eligible for free school meals who will leave education without GCSE maths and English? Can the Minister tell the House what work has been done to look at the effect of such a plan on poorer children and young people from deprived areas There is also a proposal to limit funding for foundation years—and yes, once again this has differential effects. The equality analysis says that "mature students and black, Asian and mixed/other ethnic minority groups … may be at greater risk of reduced access to HE and choice of provision". This is all really very disappointing. Augar was launched amid concerns about fairness and affordability for students, but those are clearly not the drivers at the heart of this response. The loan reforms are regressive and will hit lower-earning graduates. Rather than focusing on raising standards in schools and in HE, they risk penalising those who already find it hardest to get on through education Meanwhile, there is nothing on living costs for students, nothing to boost efforts on widening participation and nothing on the timing of admissions—except after a very big think they have decided not to do anything at all about post-qualification admissions. The consultation on the lifelong learning entitlement is still really vague. There is quite a lot on the how but not very much on the what, and certainly not on the why We have waited a thousand days for a response to Augar. That is roughly the length of an undergraduate degree, I reckon—you could probably do a PhD in that time; it is pretty much three years. After all that time, where is the strategic plan? Where is the vision for a strong, diverse higher education system that could help all of our young people and students to fulfil their potential? This feels like a missed opportunity. I hope the Minister can persuade me otherwise.