European Union (Withdrawal) Bill — House of Lords, 2018-01-30
Topic: Macroeconomics
Matthew Ridley (Conservative, Centre-right): That is what David Cameron said. Remember what the Treasury forecast said in the event of a leave vote. These were its exact words: "A vote to leave would represent an immediate and profound shock to our economy. That shock would push our economy into a recession and lead to an increase in unemployment of around 500,000, GDP would be 3.6% smaller, average real wages would be lower, inflation higher, sterling weaker, house prices would be hit and public borrowing would rise compared with a vote to remain" That was not its worst-case scenario. Instead, we have falling unemployment, record employment, strong consumer confidence, robust GDP growth, higher real wages, modest inflation, stable house prices, booming inward investment, thriving tourism, a buoyant stock market and even sterling is back above $1.40—not far off its pre-referendum level, more’s the pity That is a clean sweep of failed predictions and the Treasury, in the leaked documents that we have seen today, has barely changed its models In August 2016, the Bank of England forecast that exports in 2017 would be down by 0.5%, despite the devaluation of sterling. In fact, they were up 8.3% year on year. Here are a few headlines from just this month alone: "Exports put UK factories on their best run for 20 years"; "Freight volumes through the Port of Dover have reached record levels for the fifth consecutive year"; "UK tech sector enjoys record investment in 2017 despite Brexit"; "UK services grow faster than forecast despite growing Brexit concern"; "British universities boast record number of international student admissions"; and, for the first time ever, the UK has topped the Forbes annual survey of the best countries for business To those who say things could have been even better, I reply that I am amazed we have not slowed more. Despite a dire dirge of doom from the diehards that people should put their heads between their legs and kiss their fundaments goodbye, British consumers and producers just keep rolling along. Good for them. The noble Lord, Lord O’Neill, made the sensible point that Brexit is probably not the most important thing happening. "If that’s the worst that Brexit will deliver", he said, "I wouldn’t worry about it" Talk to businessmen and they are more concerned about the fourth industrial revolution, and the opportunities and threats that it brings—artificial intelligence, data processing and gene editing. I have just come from the inaugural meeting of the APPG on Blockchain. We face a thrilling century in a vibrant world. We can face it from behind the protectionist tariff walls and harmonised regulatory veils of the EU—where sluggish legislation is shaped by £1.5 billion of crony capitalist lobbying a year—or we can face it openly, adopting global standards and taking decisions that favour innovation rather than retard it. That does not mean deregulation; it means better regulation. To get there, we need as a simple exercise of democratic action, to pass this Bill, which neither gold-plates nor waters down anything To those noble Lords who say that the Government will get too much executive power here or there in the undergrowth of the Bill: I will listen to their arguments. I have some sympathy with them, though I wonder why they often expressed so little concern at the way EU laws were imposed on us in the biggest Henry VIII power grab of all. However, I urge them to listen to what the Government are saying in concession to these points. Some of the accusations of incoherence from this side of the House do, I admit, have force. But it is a bit rich to be lectured on incoherence by the Labour Party.