Spending Round 2019 — House of Lords, 2019-09-25
Topic: Macroeconomics
John Horam (Conservative, Centre-right): My Lords, as I was about to say before we were all rudely—and apparently unlawfully—interrupted, I am an economist and economics is usually regarded as the dismal science. Being somewhat contrary by nature, I was interested to see an article in the Times the other day by Paul Johnson, who, the House will know, is director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies. He wrote it because it is 50 years since the IFS was created. It interests me because it is nearly 50 years —49, actually—since I became a Member of Parliament. My noble friends Lord Cormack and Lord Howell are, I think, the only two here of similar longevity. Even my good noble friend Lord Young of Cookham, wonderful character though he is—we will miss him and his great gifts on the Front Bench—became a Member of Parliament in, I think, 1974 Remembering that 50-year period, Paul Johnson made comparison between now and approximately 50 years ago—1970. He pointed out, for example, that then male life expectancy was 69 years; now it is 79, which is astonishing. In 1970, 38% of adults had no teeth; now that figure is down to 6%. In that 50-year stretch, average incomes have gone up by a multiple of three; they are three times what they were 50 years ago. The equipment with which we live our lives—smartphones, televisions, dishwashers and all the rest of it—is manifold. Pensioner poverty has been hugely reduced during that 50-year period. University education has expanded to a level one could hardly have imagined when I went to university; 4% of the population went to university then. Women’s rights have hugely expanded, as I think they would acknowledge, during that period. Greenhouse gasses have been reduced massively There has been huge progress over the last 50 years, but that has encompassed the entire 45 years that we have been in the European Union. I make no cause and effect, but I point out that it has certainly been no obstacle to the sort of progress that we have made in the last 50 years. Of course, as we all have acknowledged in this debate, there are problems today, and I am glad that the spending plan recognised this. We are now in a situation where, while in 2010 we had a 10% annual deficit in relation to GDP, it is now down to 1%—although that is slightly damaged by the latest figures showing that if you include student loans and public sector pensions, it becomes 2% of GDP. None the less, it is massively more favourable than it was at the end of the last Labour Government. Therefore, we can afford to splash the cash, and we should do that in a sensible and appropriate way The one thing I am particularly pleased the Government are splashing the cash on is technical education. All three parties—and I am afraid that I cannot exclude the Liberal Democrats, because they were in coalition for five years—have been guilty of not giving appropriate priority to technical education, apprenticeships, further education colleges and all the rest of it in comparison with universities. They have been the Cinderella of our education system for far too long. In fact, I was delighted by a thought which the noble Lord, Lord Hennessy of Nympsfield—that great friend of all of us in the House of Lords—had when he saw all the banners outside. He wanted to have a new banner, though modest as he is, he thought it should be called a bannerette. He wanted three things on the banner: technical education, social care and social housing. These are, in his view, the things that we should really be looking at rather than the Brexit stuff, for or against. I entirely agree with him. Money, of course, is not enough. We need plans and policies and we need the drive of ministerial application. The real tragedy of the last three years has been the total diversion of the Government into Brexit, and the opportunity cost of doing all that has been enormous We need to get this resolved and there is no doubt that the issue de nos jours—if I might put it like that—is resolving the Irish question. There are clearly two elements in current thinking that could provide a possible resolution of this issue. One is the idea—spelled out by, among others, my good friend the noble Lord, Lord Empey, in a recent debate—of an all- Ireland committee to look at border issues, including representations from Northern Ireland, the European Union, the United Kingdom and the Irish Government. I would welcome that. The second idea is to build on the already existing regulations covering trade between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom. Those two elements are the "landing zone", to use the Prime Minister’s phrase, which we need. We now need to make sure that we do not just have a landing zone but that we actually land In my view, what we need above all is a willingness on all sides to compromise and political skill. We Brits used to be rather good at compromising in a sensible and skilful way. The European Union has long experience in forging compromises. We even once had Prime Ministers who were good at compromising and showing political skill. Thinking back over the last 50 years, to continue my little theme, I remember Harold Wilson, my second Prime Minister in Parliament—Ted Heath was my first, and I have to confess that he was not quite so good at compromising. My favourite comment about him was uttered by a very good friend of mine, Tom Urwin, who was the Member of Parliament for Houghton-le-Spring. He was a carpenter and he said of Harold Wilson, "That man: if he swallowed a nail, he’d defecate a corkscrew". He did not use the word, "defecate", but the House will get what I mean. Wilson was crafty and guileful. Frankly, at this present juncture, we need that sort of skill and willingness to compromise. I hope, above all, that the Prime Minister understands that confrontation will not get us anywhere. What we need is political skill and compromise. If he does not display that in the coming weeks, I am afraid that we will be stuck in this dreadful limbo for a lot longer.