Trade Bill — House of Lords, 2019-01-23
Topic: International Affairs
Christopher Francis Patten (Conservative, Centre-right): I am happy to support this amendment—although I realise that happiness is a relative concept. We find ourselves going round and round these arguments, again and again, banging our heads against the same walls of confusion and obfuscation, and barely managing to avoid Brexit derangement syndrome as we make this tiresome journey. As the noble Lord, Lord Kerr, said, we have of course been here before—several times. The most notable is the debate we had, as he said, in April last year, when all of us were younger. Indeed, one or two of my noble friends are no longer here—permanently—since that debate. On that occasion, we won the amendment to the withdrawal Bill by 123—not 230, the sort of figure that we are used to these days, but by a pretty comfortable margin. As the noble Lord said just now, if our advice on that occasion had been taken, we would not be in the shambles that we are in today. One reason for discussing this issue again is that it is quite possible that a customs union, among other things, will be part of a way out of the shambles that we are currently in In an article in the Times a couple of days ago, the admirable commentator Rachel Sylvester reminded us that Einstein defined insanity as continuing to make the same decision on the assumption that it will get the result you want and therefore continuing to be disappointed. I suppose that, by that definition, one of the steps you take towards insanity is that you start quoting your own speeches, and most of us have made these arguments again and again I want to make four very brief points in the hope that we do not have to spend the rest of our lives talking about customs unions. My first point is this. The argument that we have to do this because of the referendum result—that this is a red line that cannot be painted any other colour—is an assertion. As the noble Lord, Lord Kerr, said, it was an assertion made in a party conference speech, where it is not always the case that objective truth or consensus is looked for. The party conference speech then became an item of sacerdotal interest. It was put into the manifesto before the 2017 election—in which our party did not do conspicuously well. We are told that we have to implement a proposal to get rid of any customs union because of that party manifesto I had a great deal of pleasure rereading that manifesto. Right at the beginning is the sentence: "People are rightly sceptical of politicians who claim to have easy answers to deeply complex problems" I would certainly settle for that. There were one or two notable items in the manifesto, and my noble friend Lord Lansley and I have written more manifestos than most people have had hot dinners. I seem to remember that pledges were made that were dropped even before the election, including a very good proposal, which I supported, about funding healthcare for the elderly—a subject in which I am sure I will soon be much more interested than I am now. The idea that this is a tablet of stone, engraved with the absolute commitment, whatever happens, to deny the country a way out using a customs union, is ridiculous and risible My second point is about the belief that, somehow, we can manage everything as we go forward without any deal, and certainly without being part of a customs union. It is part of the Catch-22 situation that we find ourselves in now. If you say that there are problems in leaving the EU and the customs union without a deal, you are told that there are no problems. If you do not say that there are problems, you are told that there are no problems. It is rather difficult for us to find a way through this Catch-22 situation. The notion that we can manage in the future simply on WTO terms is, of course, ridiculous. No developed country in the world manages solely on WTO terms. We talk about Europe’s agreements with America being on WTO terms; they are not. There are 100 sectoral agreements with the United States, which go well beyond WTO terms. The truth is that, in addition to the WTO terms, other things are necessary to secure the best possible advantages for your exports and for your industry. That is why, since the WTO was established, 243 different trade agreements—substantial ones—have been made by countries to secure their economic interests. Crashing out and pretending that we can manage simply on WTO terms is, again, a ridiculous proposition The third thing one should recognise is the difficulty of putting together a trade policy at the speed that we are trying to now. That became apparent in a debate we had earlier this afternoon. I say without, I hope, being remotely patronising to the Minister that she has the impossible job of marking Dr Fox’s homework. On the basis of what we know so far, the House would not have given him a pass: he would not even have got into the margin of error The issue is so difficult. From the European point of view, it involves a great deal of transparency. If the noble Lord, Lord Mandelson, was in his place, he would be able to confirm that. I used to do the political side of trade agreements. We would go back, again and again, to the European Parliament and to parliamentary committees to be quizzed about what exactly we were negotiating. Quite rightly, one of the most pressing invigilators every time was the British Minister: we were pressed on the details of the negotiations as we went along When we were told by Dr Fox, in between flights, that there would be 40 trade agreements ready for lift-off within seconds of leaving the European Union at the end of March this year, some of us were a little cautious in taking his word for gospel truth because we had seen what had happened with his previous prediction that negotiating with the European Union was going to be incredibly straightforward. Now, however, we know what the score is. It is not 40, not 39, not 29 and not 19 and a half—we have hardly made any agreements If we crash out of the European Union on 29 March, it will be extremely painful for British business and industry. There are all sorts of issues. The Minister said quite properly that these are very big agreements. She said that the Canada agreement is 1,600 pages long and the South Korea agreement is 1,400 pages long. As we have said before, you cannot simply go through them Snopaking "European Union" and inserting "United Kingdom". All sorts of really complicated issues have to be dealt with and that will take a very long time If we look beyond just rolling over those trade agreements, what else are we talking about? We are talking about capturing a huge share of the big markets: China, India and the United States. At the moment, China is not the easiest place to do business. The indebtedness is now 300% of GPD, which may look even more difficult in the future, and there are, alas, increasing security and political issues that we have to cope with. Then there is India. If he was in his place, the noble Lord, Lord Bilimoria, would tell us, as he has done with great authority in the past, that what the Indians are interested in is visas, not concessional trade deals with the UK. Then we have the United States. If my noble friend Lord Deben was in his place he would give us a speech on American chickens that would make any sentient human being become vegan. He has done it two or three times, and it is a very moving piece of rhetoric, as one would expect from my noble friend. The idea that we can build a tower on the sand of President Trump’s meretricious and mercantilist policies is an absurdity. An independent trade policy was why we said we had to reject a customs union, so where is it? It remains an aspiration of our ubiquitous International Trade Secretary and one which, alas, we are not going to see consummated in the foreseeable future My final point is on Northern Ireland, which we have talked about again and again. Both previous speakers pointed out that the problems of the Northern Ireland border would not exist if we were in a customs union. In the referendum campaign, the Prime Minister, to her credit, made absolutely clear what she thought of the Northern Ireland border issue and how important it was for the future and integrity of the Good Friday agreement. She was right. The other day, my noble and learned friend Lord McKay explained with spectacular clarity why there would have to be a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. Guess what: if you have one set of trade and customs arrangements in one country and a different set in the country next door, you have a hard border. It is the case everywhere. Search parties have been sent out to find an example of where it is not true and to find a technological solution—and answer came there none.