Economy — House of Lords, 2015-09-10
Topic: Macroeconomics
Anthony Giddens (Labour, Centre-left): My Lords, we are struggling to recover from one of the greatest economic crises in modern history. Anyone who offers simple nostrums about how this can be achieved needs his or her head examined. The crisis is structural, not just cyclical, and a great deal of innovative thinking will be needed to get the world economy back on track. I do not see where this innovative thinking is coming from at the moment, but the group of doctrines that has become known as "austerity" is certainly not it. I am not sure that current Keynesian doctrines can supply more than part of the answer either. The idea of austerity is intuitively attractive, and would even seem to comply with common sense: when in debt, cut back on spending. Yet what applies at the level of an individual or a household manifestly does not apply at the level of the economy. I always respect what the noble Lord, Lord Howell, has to say, but on this matter I fundamentally disagree with him. The principles of austerity have failed wherever they have been applied. Not only that, they have acted against the very outcomes they are supposed to achieve Although halting and beset with problems, the US has made the best recovery among the advanced economies, which is the result of dynamic policies of an activist central bank coupled with a range of large-scale government interventions. The $800 billion stimulus Bill introduced by the US Government increased GDP by two percentage points from late 2009 to 2011, avoiding a double-dip recession. The contributions the Bill made to helping the less well-off were very substantial. Some 5.3 million people were prevented from slipping below the poverty line—a very considerable accomplishment Progress that has been achieved in the UK is in spite of the austerity measures adopted or, to put it more accurately, because at certain points they were relaxed. Employment has held up well, but that is largely because of depressed conditions at the lower end of the labour market. GDP capita as of 2014 was fully 16% below what it would have been if trends before the crisis had continued Among the extraordinary features of the aftermath of the crisis, which have been referred to by my noble friend Lord Monks, is that private irresponsibility has become redefined as public debt, and that the poor are being held accountable for the fecklessness of the rich. The former Governor of the Bank of England, the noble Lord, Lord King, put this quite well: "The price of this financial crisis is being borne by people who absolutely did not cause it" The huge further cuts planned to welfare will have damaging consequences for those working on low incomes, the unemployed, young people and the disabled. The raiding of Labour’s cupboard to provide a veneer of social justice will not stop this becoming a toxic mix. In the mean time, disparities of wealth and income between the top 1% and the rest continue to soar. The structural causes of the crisis are to date at best only partly addressed, and remain dangerous I have one major question for the Minister, who will forgive me for losing my voice through this speech. RBS is being sold back to the private sector. Does that mean that it is no longer too big to fail? I would like a yes or no answer to that question.