argyrotsipi/train-dataset huggingface dataset:
European Union (Withdrawal) Act — House of Commons, 2018-12-06
Topic: International Affairs
Philip Hammond (Conservative, Centre-right): I completely agree with my hon. Friend. That is the central theme of what I will say to the House today. Yes, leaving the European Union has a cost, but going back on the decision of the British people would also have an enormous cost for our country.
European Union (Withdrawal) Act — House of Commons, 2018-12-06
Topic: Foreign Trade
Philip Hammond (Conservative, Centre-right): Yes, and we are already paying a price, and have paid a price, for the uncertainty on our future trading relationship with the European Union. The sooner we can restore certainty, the sooner we can get back on to a path of solid economic growth.
European Union (Withdrawal) Act — House of Commons, 2018-12-06
Topic: Foreign Trade
Philip Hammond (Conservative, Centre-right): No. In all scenarios, we expect that economic growth will continue and the economy will carry on growing. What we were looking at in the analysis we published last week is a ranking of five different scenarios based on their impact on the overall size of the economy over a 15-year horizon The theme of today’s debate, as Mr Speaker has reminded the House, is the economy, and the economy has always been at the heart of the UK’s relationship with Europe. It was definitely not the lure of political union but the prospect of jobs, wage growth, trade and prosperity that brought Britain into the European Economic Community, as it then was, in 1973—I was there, and I remember. For most of us who campaigned 43 years later to remain in the EU in 2016, it was certainly not the political institutions and the paraphernalia of the Union that provided the motivation to do so, but a hard-nosed appraisal of our economic interests The fact is that our economic and trading relationship with the EU has been built over 45 years, during which time our economies have shaped themselves around each other and become inextricably intertwined: supply chains criss-cross borders; workforces draw on talent from across the continent; and a firm in Birmingham can deal with a customer in Berlin as easily as one in Bradford—so much so that almost 65% of all UK trade is now with the EU or through EU trade agreements. These trading relationships and commercial partnerships were not built overnight, but in a no-deal exit many of them would be destroyed overnight, as the market access and free-flowing borders on which they are based were lost. Although new trade partnerships with countries outside the EU undoubtedly offer new and exciting opportunities for UK companies, the analysis the Government published last week is clear that the benefits flowing from new free trade agreements would not compensate for the loss of EU trade from a no-deal exit.
European Union (Withdrawal) Act — House of Commons, 2018-12-06
Topic: International Affairs
Andrew Edmund Armstrong Selous (Conservative, Centre-right): On Tuesday, the House of Commons Library wrote to me to say: "The backstop comes into force automatically, if the Withdrawal Agreement is signed, at the end of the transition period." This morning, the Prime Minister said: "If we get to the point where it might be needed, we have a choice as to what we do, so we don’t even have to go into the backstop at that point." Can the Chancellor help to explain that because there seems to be a variance between those two statements?
European Union (Withdrawal) Act — House of Commons, 2018-12-06
Topic: International Affairs
Philip Hammond (Conservative, Centre-right): The backstop remains as the ultimate default, but the agreement we have negotiated with the EU very importantly gives us the choice, if we are not ready to move to our new future partnership on 1 January 2021, to seek an extension of the implementation period for one or two further years. That is a very important part of the architecture of what we have negotiated. I make no bones about this—I have said it before. In my view, it would be much better for the UK to seek an extension of the implementation period if we need a further period of time before we are ready for the new long-term arrangements, rather than go into the backstop.
European Union (Withdrawal) Act — House of Commons, 2018-12-06
Topic: International Affairs
Philip Hammond (Conservative, Centre-right): The way to do that is to support the proposal that the Prime Minister has presented to the House, which represents a compromise, ensuring that we leave the EU and respect the referendum decision of the British people, but do so in a way designed to minimise any negative impact on our economy and maximise the opportunities for this country in the future.
European Union (Withdrawal) Act — House of Commons, 2018-12-06
Topic: Macroeconomics
John Charles Baron (Conservative, Centre-right): I totally concur with what my right hon. Friend said about divided nations, but may I urge him to be cautious about relying too heavily on economic forecasts? We all remember the Treasury, the Bank of England and the International Monetary Fund predicting economic woe by Christmas 2016 if we voted to leave, with talk of 500,000 extra unemployed, a do-it-yourself economic disaster and so on. It got so bad that in the end the Bank of England had to publicly apologise for getting it so wrong. Can we just make sure we keep things in perspective with regard to these economic forecasts?
European Union (Withdrawal) Act — House of Commons, 2018-12-06
Topic: Macroeconomics
Philip Hammond (Conservative, Centre-right): I am grateful to my hon. Friend, because he gives me the opportunity to clarify for the House that these are not economic forecasts; they are modelled scenarios for what might happen in different circumstances. Like all economic modelling, they depend to an enormous extent on the assumptions that are made. The assumptions in this paper are transparent and the assumptions that the Bank of England made are also clear. My hon. Friend has made his point about the modelling that was done in 2016. I can only speak for the Treasury and tell him that a huge amount of work has been done since 2016 to update and upgrade the Treasury’s long-term model. That computable general equilibrium model is the one that has been used.
European Union (Withdrawal) Act — House of Commons, 2018-12-06
Topic: Macroeconomics
John Charles Baron (Conservative, Centre-right): The one thing that I would suggest to the Chancellor is that the problem with these forecasts is that they do not anticipate a response from the Government to a given set of scenarios. That is one reason why the forecasts in 2016 were so wrong.
European Union (Withdrawal) Act — House of Commons, 2018-12-06
Topic: Foreign Trade
Philip Hammond (Conservative, Centre-right): I shall make a bit of progress, then give way again I was saying that the benefits flowing from new FTAs would not compensate us fully for the loss of EU trade from a no-deal exit. That is why we have fought so hard for a deal that delivers the closest possible trading relationship with the EU, while respecting the outcome of the referendum and giving ourselves the ability to form new trading arrangements with countries around the world. Today, the case for this deal is that, uniquely among the options open to us, it does deliver on our commitment to leave the EU and on our collective duty to protect the jobs and living standards of our constituents.
European Union (Withdrawal) Act — House of Commons, 2018-12-06
Topic: Foreign Trade
Philip Hammond (Conservative, Centre-right): The deal that is on the table provides the key elements that we will need to maintain our trading relationship with the European Union. It makes a commitment to maintaining our borders as openly and free-flowingly as possible. It eliminates tariffs, quotas, fees and charges. It will protect the vital supply-chain business that is at the heart of our trading relationship with the European Union.
European Union (Withdrawal) Act — House of Commons, 2018-12-06
Topic: Foreign Trade
Nigel Paul Huddleston (Conservative, Centre-right): With regard to the deal versus no-deal scenario, does the Chancellor agree that the problem with the WTO option is that it is silent on swathes of modern British industry, so it does not cover our economy completely? Aviation is one of the most obvious sectors that is not covered by the WTO option. It is very dangerous for us to go into a situation in which those sectors are not adequately covered.
European Union (Withdrawal) Act — House of Commons, 2018-12-06
Topic: Foreign Trade
Philip Hammond (Conservative, Centre-right): My hon. Friend is right, but I think the most telling point about this issue is the one made regularly by my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for International Trade. If WTO terms are so fantastic and so good for a trading relationship, why do we need to negotiate free trade deals with all these other countries around the world? We already trade with them on WTO terms, but we clearly believe that we can do much more if we negotiate something better than WTO.
European Union (Withdrawal) Act — House of Commons, 2018-12-06
Topic: Macroeconomics
Philip Hammond (Conservative, Centre-right): The hon. Gentleman is misinterpreting the analysis. These are not rates of GDP growth; this is an estimate of the relative size of the economy at a 15-year horizon under different scenarios. In all scenarios, we expect that GDP growth will recover and continue.
European Union (Withdrawal) Act — House of Commons, 2018-12-06
Topic: Macroeconomics
Philip Hammond (Conservative, Centre-right): I am sorry but the hon. Gentleman is wrong. I did not talk about a lower growth rate. I am talking about a smaller overall size of the economy. It is our central view that, once the economy has moved to a new equilibrium, growth will resume in all these scenarios and that our economy will go on getting larger.
European Union (Withdrawal) Act — House of Commons, 2018-12-06
Topic: Macroeconomics
Philip Hammond (Conservative, Centre-right): This is not an economic forecast. It is a modelling of five different scenarios. Our economic growth rate in 2033 will depend on a raft of other issues, not only on the outcome of this debate.
European Union (Withdrawal) Act — House of Commons, 2018-12-06
Topic: International Affairs
Philip Hammond (Conservative, Centre-right): I am not quite sure what the hon. Gentleman is referring to. In the Budget, I set out a clear plan for Britain’s future. I set out an indicative envelope for the spending review next year, which will show public spending increasing in real terms throughout the next spending review period. In most people’s definition, that is turning a very important corner for this country The economic analysis published by the Government last week clearly shows that, of the spectrum of outcomes for the future UK-EU relationship, the modelled White Paper scenario would deliver significantly higher economic output than the no-deal scenario, the FTA scenario, and even the EEA scenario. The proposed future UK-EU relationship is estimated to result in economic output around 7 percentage points higher than in the modelled no-deal scenario in the long run, once the economy has reached its post-Brexit equilibrium This is a deal that secures the rights of more than 3 million EU citizens living in the UK and around 1 million UK nationals living in the EU; a deal that takes us out of the European Union and sets a framework for an economic partnership with our European friends and neighbours that is closer than any other they have today, while allowing us to strike free trade agreements around the world; a deal that ends freedom of movement and regains control of our borders, not so that we can shut down immigration, but so that we can manage it in our own best interests, ensuring that our businesses and health service still have access to the skills they need—skills that we will need as we build on our fundamental economic strengths to give Britain the brighter future our citizens imagined when they voted in June 2016; a deal that delivers on the referendum result, while securing the achievements of the British people in rebuilding our economy over the past eight years; and, above all, a deal that can bring our country together again.
European Union (Withdrawal) Act — House of Commons, 2018-12-06
Topic: International Affairs
Philip Hammond (Conservative, Centre-right): The deal we have negotiated will ensure the greatest possible level of freedoms and rights for UK citizens so that they can carry on living their lives and we can carry on working, collaborating and trading with our EU partners. I am completely convinced that of the options open to us this is the right way for the country to go forward If anyone on the Opposition Front Bench genuinely believes that there is a magic deal available that would see us retain all the benefits of EU membership but with no free movement, no payments into the EU’s budget and no state aid rules, they are sadly deluded. Labour calls for a Brexit that delivers the "exact same benefits" as we currently have. That is called remaining in the European Union and it means being in the single market as well as the customs union, and last time I checked that was not Labour policy. A customs union alone would not deliver those "exact same benefits". It would not maintain supply chains, remove regulatory checks and non-tariff barriers, or deliver frictionless borders. So Labour’s policy fails its own test. The time for trying to have your cake and eat it has passed. It is now time for tough choices and practical solutions and for a focus on the things that really matter. It is time to deliver a "jobs first" Brexit, and that is what the Prime Minister’s deal does.
European Union (Withdrawal) Act — House of Commons, 2018-12-06
Topic: Transportation
David Thomas Morris (Conservative, Centre-right): According to the Department for Transport, if we crash out without this agreement, the hauliers of this country will have access to only 1,000 permits—and that to cover a range of areas from health products to food and furniture deliveries. This would be catastrophic for my constituency, which relies on haulage. Does my right hon. Friend agree?
European Union (Withdrawal) Act — House of Commons, 2018-12-06
Topic: International Affairs
Philip Hammond (Conservative, Centre-right): My hon. Friend is right, and he takes me back to the question from my hon. Friend the Member for Mid Bedfordshire (Ms Dorries) earlier. If we were to leave the EU in a real no-deal scenario, with such issues left unresolved, we would be in a very difficult place. The small number of transit permits available to hauliers would be just one of the many issues that would cause considerable difficulty.
European Union (Withdrawal) Act — House of Commons, 2018-12-06
Topic: Foreign Trade
Philip Hammond (Conservative, Centre-right): My right hon. and learned Friend is right that, strictly, the flow of trade in goods would be facilitated by such an arrangement, but there are two problems with the EFTA-EEA model. First, it would continue to impose on us the obligations of freedom of movement, which we believe the British people voted against in the referendum decision in 2016. Secondly, it would leave our financial services industry in particular extremely exposed to having to comply with a rapidly evolving body of EU regulation over which we would have no influence.
European Union (Withdrawal) Act — House of Commons, 2018-12-06
Topic: Foreign Trade
Philip Hammond (Conservative, Centre-right): Under the political agreement, there is a commitment by the parties to working in good faith together to minimise any impediments to trade between us. We are confident that, with goodwill on both sides and the evolving technologies that are available, we will be able to design a very efficient and free-flowing border for UK goods and for imports from the European Union.
European Union (Withdrawal) Act — House of Commons, 2018-12-06
Topic: Foreign Trade
Victoria Grace Ford (Conservative, Centre-right): I thank the Chancellor for giving way. Does he agree that, under the withdrawal agreement, the UK will continue to trade on the same basis not just with the EU, but with the EEA and other countries, which means that companies such as Young’s of Grimsby would not face a cliff edge, but that if we vote against this agreement, then all is uncertain?
European Union (Withdrawal) Act — House of Commons, 2018-12-06
Topic: Foreign Trade
Philip Hammond (Conservative, Centre-right): My hon. Friend is exactly right. One of the huge benefits of the negotiated deal that is in front of the House is the transition period, giving us another two years, to the end of 2020, of clarity and certainty for British businesses about how they will operate in the future Let me be clear about the economic benefits of this deal: a time-limited implementation period, as I have just said, giving people and businesses time to adjust; a deal that ensures citizens, both British and European, are properly protected; a political agreement to construct the closest economic relationship between the EU and any advanced economy in the world; a free-trade area for goods with no tariffs, no fees, no charges, and no quantitative restrictions; a commitment to an ambitious relationship on services and investment, including financial services; and for further co-operation across a wide-range of sectors from transport to energy and data.
European Union (Withdrawal) Act — House of Commons, 2018-12-06
Topic: Foreign Trade
Philip Hammond (Conservative, Centre-right): Let me say this frankly to my hon. Friend: there is no deal that is negotiable that involves leaving the EU and maintaining the financial services passport. That is a fantasy world outcome. There will not be passporting. What we have negotiated with the European Union is an enhanced equivalence approach that will allow us to maintain our vital financial services networks with the European Union in the areas where there is significant financial services trade between us and to do so in a way that will provide the reassurance that commercial companies need in London to continue operating A mere equivalence finding is of no use to a company operating a book of derivatives worth several trillion dollars when there could be an abrupt ending of the equivalence arrangement unilaterally by one side. There has to be a more structured basis for that co-operation in the future. We have agreed that with the European Union, and I absolutely agree with my hon. Friend’s point that, even though we will not have direct influence over new European Union rules, we can have a significant influence over the shaping both of the global rules and, indeed, the European rules Over many decades of membership of the European Union, the UK has had a huge influence over the EU’s financial services regulatory environment. We have done that not through voting power, but through the skill, the diligence and the commitment of our civil service and industry teams who have engaged in Brussels and who have provided their expertise to try to shape the European Union’s financial services regulation in a way that is effective and that works for us all, and we will carry on doing so in the future.
European Union (Withdrawal) Act — House of Commons, 2018-12-06
Topic: Labor
Philip Hammond (Conservative, Centre-right): The hon. Lady is simply wrong. We have record numbers of disabled people in work and that is a record of which this Government are extremely proud. She needs to go away and check her facts.
European Union (Withdrawal) Act — House of Commons, 2018-12-06
Topic: Foreign Trade
Philip Hammond (Conservative, Centre-right): The hon. Lady is too absolutist. Yes, of course there is further negotiation to be done, but the shape and key elements of the deal are clearly set out in the political declaration. I have described some of them already today. Business will be able to begin to prepare. I completely accept that further clarity will arise during the ongoing negotiations in the transition period. I am sure that she has talked to businesses, so she will know that this is the way that business wants to go. The alternatives—of a no deal exit, or of trying to overturn the referendum decision and risk fracturing our country for a generation—are too awful to contemplate. We have to take this opportunity that is presented to us to protect our economy and to heal our country To protect the living standards of the people of the whole United Kingdom, we need to act now. We need to act now to end uncertainty, to protect jobs, businesses and prosperity and to begin to heal the divisions in our country. But what if we do not? What if we turn our backs on this opportunity of a negotiated exit and a transition to the future? I have heard that we have nothing to fear from no deal—nothing, that is, except a cliff-edge Brexit in just four months’ time; the end of frictionless trade with our biggest export market; restrictions on our citizens travelling in Europe; and being the only developed economy in the world trading with the EU on purely WTO terms with no customs facilitation agreements, no data sharing or protection agreements and no approvals regime to allow our industries to trade with their nearest customers and suppliers—just tariffs, paperwork and bureaucracy UK car exports would face tariffs of 10%. Many clothing exports would face tariffs of 12%. Agricultural exports would face even higher tariffs. Almost 90% of UK beef exports and 95% of lamb exports go to the EU, where they could face tariffs of over 70% and 45% respectively.
European Union (Withdrawal) Act — House of Commons, 2018-12-06
Topic: International Affairs
Philip Hammond (Conservative, Centre-right): I regard my job as to go on making the case for a sensible middle way out of this situation. I do not believe that we can afford the economic cost of a no-deal exit, but I equally do not believe we can afford the political and societal costs of trying to undo the decision of the British people in the referendum. We have to find a negotiated way forward. The Prime Minister has presented us with the route forward, and we have to take it.
European Union (Withdrawal) Act — House of Commons, 2018-12-06
Topic: International Affairs
William David Wiggin (Conservative, Centre-right): I am very reassured to hear what the Chancellor has just said, because he said in his opening statement that he felt that Brexit itself might be at risk, which of course is very much at odds with what the Prime Minister has promised us. Will he go on reassuring people like me that the will of the people will be followed by this Government?
European Union (Withdrawal) Act — House of Commons, 2018-12-06
Topic: International Affairs
Philip Hammond (Conservative, Centre-right): My right hon. Friend the Prime Minister and I have said many times that the choice before this House is very simple: it is this deal, no deal or no Brexit. Those are the opportunities that we have to choose between.