Further Discussions with the European Union under Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union — House of Lords, 2019-02-27
Topic: International Affairs
David Hugh Alexander Hannay (Crossbench, Unknown): My Lords, it is a great pleasure to follow the noble Duke. He and I were twinned together in proposing an amendment to the EU withdrawal Act on the question of the "tablets of Moses" status of 29 March 2019. I do not expect that the noble and learned Lord who will wind up or his colleague on the Front Bench will admit that they would be in a much more comfortable position today if they had accepted that amendment, but that is a fact and I think it will be borne out within a few weeks There has been some shift this week in the course of action to which the Government once appeared to be committed—leaving the EU on 29 March with or without a deal and at any cost. This involved three reckless gambles, not one of which, let alone all three, is likely to be pulled off. Gamble number one is that the EU will blink and concede the changes to the Irish backstop in the withdrawal treaty called for in the Brady amendment which the Government supported and which, I remind noble Lords, involves the "replacement" of the treaty backstop. That is not going to happen, however many lashings of reassurance or clarification are ladled over the treaty, nor will a time limit to the backstop be conceded, nor will an open-sesame key to a unilateral UK exit from it be conceded Gamble number two is that the majority of 230 who voted in the Commons in January against the Prime Minister’s November deal—described, I may say, at that time, as the best deal conceivable—will be reversed, transformed by the philosopher’s stone of running down the clock into a vote in favour. That, too, seems unlikely to happen Gamble number three is that there is still enough parliamentary time before 29 March either to pass through all the stages and changes in domestic law that will be needed to ratify the deal, if it is approved by the Commons or, alternatively, to prepare the statute book for leaving without a deal. That clearly is simply no longer credible This House, on three occasions and with substantial majorities, voted against all three of those gambles, but the Government do not seem to pay much attention to that. They appear to be either unaware of it or impervious to it, and I have never heard a government spokesman actually mention those votes, which is rather sad. However, we do not need to repeat them today: we have said it; it is all in Hansard; it is on the record Meanwhile, unlikely as it is that the UK will in fact leave the European Union without a deal either on 29 March or on 30 June, the Government continue to divert billions of tax revenues to the fruitless task of lending credibility to that disastrous option. If press reports of the tariff schedules that we would apply in such an eventuality are to be believed, and they looked pretty convincing to me when I read them this morning, the Government are now also in the process of trying to boost the credibility of leaving without a deal, grievously damaging the jewel in the Brexit crown—an independent trade policy—because they are going to reveal that we, the UK, neither need nor desire to keep the large majority of our present trade protection. What an unrequited gift to those third countries with which we hope to negotiate. Why on earth should they make concessions to us in order to achieve access to our market, which we wish to give them anyway? That is another of the appalling errors that are made as the Government zig-zag around I ask the noble and learned Lord just one precise question. It seems that the Government wish to maintain the protection for beef, sheepmeat and dairy products, which we will then apply to trade from our EU partners. Where will those tariffs on EU exports of beef, sheepmeat and dairy products be levied on trade within the island of Ireland? Presumably it will be done on the border but I would like to hear the noble and learned Lord answer that It is surely time for all those three gambles to be taken off the table, and the sooner the Government do that, the better, both for them and for the country. Alas, the message from the Government—we have heard it again today from the noble Lord, Lord Callanan—is, as it was the last time we debated it and as it was the time before, "Jam yesterday, jam tomorrow and never jam today". That message will not suffice next month and it should not even do so today.