Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme — House of Commons, 2020-09-17
Topic: Macroeconomics
Anthony Howe Browne (Conservative, Centre-right): I congratulate the hon. Member for North Ayrshire and Arran (Patricia Gibson) on securing this debate and my right hon. Friend the Chancellor on coming up with a policy so good that it gets a warm welcome from across the political spectrum. It is a delight to hear Labour and SNP Members praising Conservative party economic policy—a real triumph—but all good things come to an end. [Interruption.] I look forward to them praising the rest of the economic policies The proof is in the pudding. The latest Eurostat figures show that employment in the UK has dropped far less than in other European countries The second quarter this year versus the first quarter has seen a drop of 0.7%—that is half the drop in employment in Germany, one quarter the drop in France and one ninth the drop Ireland. We can demonstrably prove that we have been far more successful at preserving jobs in the UK Looking at the unemployment figures that we had just this week, there was a rise in unemployment, but it went from 3.9% to 4.1%. Most economic commentators believed that the rise in unemployment would be far greater. I very much welcome the fact that we have more strength in the labour market now than most people expected. Obviously, every job lost is bad news, and my heart goes out to anybody who has lost their job We have been hearing about the cliff edge, and there is a big question about how high that cliff edge is with 9.6 million people having been on furlough. Anecdotally, however, everyone I know who has been on furlough has now gone back to work. The latest figures from the ONS, which are from 15 August—over a month ago—show that only 11% of the workforce are on furlough. That is roughly 3 million people. If we look at the trajectory, we are probably now down to about 5%, with 1 million to 1.5 million still on furlough. I look forward to seeing the latest figures. We have another six weeks or so to go until the end of October, so it is not a cliff edge, but a tapering out. I very much welcome that, and again, that is tribute to the Chancellor’s policies and the flexibility, with employers being given nudges to get people back to work One of the most critical points is to understand the difference between protecting jobs, which is what the job retention scheme was about, and helping people find work at the end. There will be structural changes to the economy. The airline industry, for example, which the hon. Member for Paisley and Renfrewshire North (Gavin Newlands) mentioned, will not be the same size—not next year, not the year after and not in three years’ time. What are we going to do for the people in the airline industry? Are we going to put them on the job retention scheme for ever? At some point, we have to move on, look forward and actually help people find jobs, and that is why I very much welcome the schemes that the Chancellor is focusing on now. Rather than paying people to stay at home and not work, we are providing incentives for employers, such as the kickstart scheme or the bonuses for apprenticeship, to help people who are out of work get back into work. That is the way forward.