Brexit: Deal or No Deal (European Union Committee Report) — House of Lords, 2018-01-16
Topic: International Affairs
David Hugh Alexander Hannay (Crossbench, Unknown): My Lords, I too join those who have paid tribute to this report, which is one of the most recent of a long string of very valuable reports on the implications of Brexit. I also pay tribute to my noble friend Lord Jay, who I think has done a wonderful job. I was present at some of the debates on his reports when he was standing in as chair of that committee However, this report is one of the most valuable because it takes head on a basic tenet of the Government’s negotiating strategy ever since the Prime Minister promulgated it at Lancaster House almost a year ago to this day—that no deal was better than a bad deal. That the Secretary of State for DExEU has apparently —so I read in the press—expressed surprise and indignation that the European Union should take that outcome seriously after the Prime Minister took the trouble of ramming it down the throats of all 27 ambassadors of the member states at Lancaster House I find pretty laughable. Or do we perhaps no longer expect ambassadors to take what the Prime Minister says seriously The proposition that "no deal is better than a bad deal" has become one of those largely meaningless mantras, along with "Brexit means Brexit", which the Government have produced as a substitute for telling Parliament what their substantive negotiating objectives and strategy really are. It has become the battle cry of those who fundamentally believe in Brexit at any cost. That is why I think we have to look very carefully at the conclusions of this report, which so cogently explain how damaging such an outcome would be—the worst possible one for the country in the short, medium and long term. I repeat here the conclusion that has been mentioned by so many others that it is difficult, if not impossible, "to envisage a worse outcome for the United Kingdom." I hope that that is understood and accepted, instead of this mantra being treated as a flirtatious sally towards the European Union, which clearly is not quivering in fear each time it is mentioned It is my hope that this report will help give the quietus to this self-harming approach. It is my hope but it is not my expectation, because the "no deal is better than a bad deal" mantra is the Rasputin of the Brexit negotiations. You can feed it cyanide cakes, you can pump it full of bullets and you can hold it under the ice, and yet it still emerges gibbering from the ordeal to exercise a fatal fascination for the true believers in Brexit Quite recently, I heard one of those true believers—the noble Lord, Lord Howard of Lympne, a Member of the House who is not in his place today—tell the BBC’s "Today" programme, with all the certainty of somebody reading off the tablets of Moses, that if you are not prepared and seen to be prepared to walk away from a negotiation, you would inevitably be worsted in it. Leaving aside the wisdom of bluffing in circumstances in which, as this report makes clear, we have the weaker hand in a no-deal situation, I do not think that the noble Lord’s iron rule of negotiation is either true or suited to the present circumstances. Was that the object that we were prepared to work away when we negotiated the establishment of the United Nations or the Atlantic alliance, or the long string of negotiations that have brought freer and fairer trade including the Kennedy round, the Tokyo round and the Uruguay round, or the commitment to combat climate change, in which the noble Lord, Lord Howard, and I played some small part in Rio in 1992? We are, after all, talking about a new partnership with our nearest neighbours, with whom not only do we do almost half our trade but with whom we share a large range of common values and interests. Would not it be more sensible to say that failure is not an option that we are prepared to contemplate? Would not that be better than advocating billions of pounds to preparing for failure Moreover, it seems to me largely overlooked at this moment just how different the post-March 2018 phase of the negotiations is likely to be from the negotiations that were completed on phase 1 before Christmas. Those divorce negotiations, particularly those relating to the financial settlement, were always going to be a bit acrimonious and confrontational—that is the way it is with divorce proceedings—but surely the next phase needs to be undertaken in a spirit of mutual benefit if it is to have any chance of success. And there is plenty of mutual benefit around: in continuing to co-operate on the whole range of foreign and security policies; in working together on scientific research and innovation; in facing together the threats and challenges from international crime and terrorism; and, of course, in continuing to trade in the frictionless manner to which we have grown accustomed over more than 40 years of EU membership. To be fair, the Government do talk the talk on a lot of this, but, as the noble Lord, Lord Teverson, said, at least on the trade aspects they do not walk the walk. They spend an inordinate amount of time drawing red lines and listing all the approaches that we are not prepared to contemplate, which seems to be pretty much anything that the EU has ever negotiated with anyone else. Is it really wise to be so negatively prescriptive before we have even sat down at the negotiating table on these trade issues? I doubt it. Surely the approach to trade negotiations should be one with a much more open mind, to see what could be achieved for what Meanwhile, time marches on, and it is essential that the standstill or transition arrangements are settled, at least in their broad outlines, by the end of March if it is at all possible. I was encouraged by two little words in the Prime Minister’s Statement that was repeated in this House following the conclusion of phase 1 in Brussels. She said that during the standstill period—she did not call it that; she has an aversion to that word, I think—matters would remain "as now". That should enable rapid progress to be made in Brussels, but it will need careful presentation and explanation to the Government’s more zealous Brexit supporters, who are going to find a good deal of it pretty distasteful. There is little sign of that explanation so far. We need some provision in the standstill arrangements for what happens if it turns out that all we have done is postpone the cliff edge from 2019 to early 2021. We may then find ourselves going over it and subjugating business to two wrenching transitions rather than one. That would be bad news. I suggest that some flexibility on the duration of that standstill—some ability by common accord to extend the period—ought to be one of our objectives There is an awful lot at stake, and I am looking forward to hearing the Minister’s reply. I am not suggesting that he do anything as silly as tell us that of course there will not be a no-deal situation—there are circumstances in which that could happen. However, I would like to hear him say that under no circumstances will this Government seek to make that part of their objective.