Welfare Reform and Work Bill — House of Lords, 2016-01-27
Topic: Social Welfare
Archibald Kirkwood (Liberal Democrats, Centre to centre-left): My Lords, I will add just a word to my noble friend’s excellent speech. I want to do three things: look at the context, share some new analytical evidence that I have just had access to and, finally, talk about the relationship between Amendments 45 and 46A For me, this is a significant moment for universal credit. I am determined to do everything in my power to bring universal credit to a successful, sustainable position if it is the last thing I do before I go to the great Parliament in the sky. This is an important moment. What we are arguing about is part of the strategic balance in the architecture of the system. I believe that the Chancellor, who is fully focused on the public finances, as perhaps Chancellors have to be, is completely blind to family budgets. That is evident in the way that he has been seeking some of the necessary public savings. I know that the Minister is completely innocent in terms of any of these changes. My spies are everywhere, and they actually give him quite high marks. One only had to read the newspapers over the late autumn, sensitively and between the lines, to know that we could have been facing rates of change to the reduction in the benefit of not just 65% but 75%. I believe that to be true and believe that the Minister was responsible for stopping that happening. I am deeply grateful for that. If that had happened, I would have given up any further attempt to make this policy work at all We are talking about work allowances and how they fit into the system. We have to get this sorted out once and for all, because although people have been told this before, I believe that in the 2016 fiscal year we will see a massive scaling up of universal credit, not just across all the job centres but in terms of the categories and numbers of claimants that will be admitted. I am anxious that that should happen. However, I make the point that there are a lot of problems waiting on the other side of that, which we know about and have been working on. We have to get the architecture right before the scale-up starts, and work allowances are an essential ingredient My noble friend’s amendment actually works with the grain of government policy much better than the Chancellor’s proposal does. The universal credit, making work pay and work incentive momentum will be significantly reduced if these work allowances are reduced in the way that is being suggested We are able now to start to look at some of the impacts on universal credit recipients as the rollout moves on. I will very briefly sketch through some analysis I have seen from Policy in Practice, a group of people whose judgment I trust. It has done some forecasting of the effects of the impact of universal credit on recipients. The analysis makes three points. First, with no mitigation plan in place for people currently on universal credit, all households in work and on universal credit in April 2016 can expect to be worse off as a result of reduced work allowances. It estimates that 96,000 households in work will be worse off by April 2016. I see the wrinkling of a ministerial nose already. I know that this is the Minister’s territory and I am sure that he will want to look at some of these figures, but that is what I am told and I am reading it as accurately as I can The second worrying point raised by the Policy in Practice analysis, and with an indirect relationship to the work allowances changes, is the finding that taking into account the national living wage and higher personal allowance—that is, the government package—35% of universal credit recipients will be worse off in 2020 without transitional protection. If that is anything like true, we should be worried Even more interestingly, and perhaps more worryingly, the third conclusion of the analysis is that households that are worse off under universal credit would need to work additional hours in order to not be worse off from these changes. Policy in Practice’s current best estimate puts the combined figure at an additional 10 million hours each week across the United Kingdom that would need to be found and worked before people could protect their income in the long run. Worse than that, it then goes on to say that, at the same time, cuts to work allowances will limit the dynamic effect of universal credit by up to 2.5 million hours each week, and that is on top of the OBR estimate that the national living wage will reduce the weekly hours available by a further 1.8 million hours each week If you combine these factors, we are looking at the possibility of making it more difficult for households to make up their shortfall by working additional hours. I am sure that that will all be tested in due course when the figures are made available. However, that is the scale of the challenge that we may be facing as a result of some of these work allowance changes. I am certainly concerned that this is a significant change that we need to think about very carefully.