Customs and Borders — House of Commons, 2018-04-26
Topic: Foreign Trade
Seema Malhotra-Saluja (Labour, Centre-left): The hon. Gentleman makes an extremely important point and, indeed, takes my argument further. I thank him for his contribution The risk to these exports, both of goods and services, is not distributed evenly across the UK. The implications for regions in the UK, particularly the most affected regions, are stark. In Wales, the north-east and Yorkshire and the Humber—areas that can least afford an economic shock to their manufacturing bases—an estimated 55% to 60% of their indirect service exports goes to the EU, and they are therefore reliant on the customs union for efficiency and speed It would be a dereliction of our duty if we exposed regions, families and businesses to greater risk in a world that is already rife with uncertainty without a proper debate on the implications for their prosperity, especially as the most affected regions are also those least well positioned to respond to any shocks arising from leaving the customs union. As the City Region Economic and Development Institute at the University of Birmingham found, Brexit will aggravate, not reduce, inter-regional imbalances. Its research also found that the regions most exposed to Brexit are not remain-voting London and Scotland. For this risk of further damage, what do we have to look forward to in order to mitigate those effects? By the Government’s own analysis, whatever model for leaving the European Union that we take, there will be, at best, between 2% and 5% less growth over the next 15 years. That means lower wages than would otherwise have been the case, and lower tax receipts and therefore less in our public purse to redistribute resources to the very areas that expressed discontent in the referendum and, indeed, to go into our public services This issue is not just about economic divides. Perhaps I can come to my closing remarks with a few comments about Northern Ireland. It is clear to most—and I suspect even to the Government now—that there is no technological solution to achieving no hard border without infrastructure. The "Smart Border 2.0" report, which is often cited as an option, has rightly been acknowledged as insufficient by the Government. Perhaps I could quote from the report from the Exiting the European Union Committee. It says that "we remain of the view that we cannot see how it will be possible to maintain an open border with no checks and no infrastructure if the UK leaves the Customs Union and the Single Market." I support the motion before the House today, because the customs union is vital to ensure that the complex supply chains within our economy continue to function effectively. This is also an argument based not just on politics and ideology, but on academic research and evidence. Anyone with a genuine interest in greater equity in the distribution of economic gains in our country cannot take these warnings lightly. For Ireland, supporting membership of the customs union is also about accepting the reality that, without it, a border in Northern Ireland is eventually inevitable. I cannot vote in any way in this House other than the one that makes a border in Northern Ireland less likely to happen.