Christmas Adjournment — House of Commons, 2021-12-16
Topic: International Affairs
Robert Alexander Stewart (Conservative, Centre-right): I entirely agree with my very good friend; she is so right Paddy Ashdown once saw President Tuđman draw a map on a menu and divide it in half, saying "That half is Serb and that half is Croat." Paddy Ashdown asked, "Where do the Muslims go?" I will come to that It would be a bit rich if Srebrenica were in a breakaway section of Bosnia. What happened at Srebrenica was the catalyst that caused the international community, led by the United Sates, to take Bosnia seriously, and the Dayton peace accords were the result. They were signed in November 1995 and they achieved their immediate objective—they stopped the killing and they preserved the territorial integrity of the state—but the political arrangements for Bosnia were diabolical Dayton bequeathed an unworkable constitution and a hugely complex, multi-layered system of government presided over by, would you believe, a triumvirate of Presidents—Bosnian, Croat and Muslim—who adopted the primary role of lead President once every eight months in rotation. That system was meant to last for only a few years, but it has now stumbled on for 26 years All this is unravelling at an exceedingly fast pace. The President of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, has put plans in place through the Parliament of Republika Srpska to quit the federation and thus reduce Bosnia and Herzegovina in area by 49%. On Friday 10 December, after our debate the previous day, Republika Srpska formally adopted a set of resolutions to initiate the process of withdrawing from Bosnia and Herzegovina’s state institutions, including the armed forces, the taxation authorities and even the intelligence agencies It is for that reason that I come back to the Chamber once again to talk about Bosnia. I hope I am not being too much of a pain in the bottom, but we have to know what is happening and we have to stop what might happen. I am sorry if I keep banging on, but someone has to, and many hon. Members agree with me Dodik’s move represents the first step towards formal secession, and it establishes a timeline of six months. We are talking about June next year, which is very soon, and a Greater Serbia could result. I get that a lot of Serbs would like that, but it would be a disaster for the area. I firmly believe that such a move would have a domino effect on the remaining Bosnian territory. It would certainly embolden Croat nationalists such as the leader of the main nationalist HDZ party, Dragan Čović, who would very much like to see Bosnian Croat independence, too It seems there is some sort of close collaboration between Čović and Dodik, who have been pressing very hard for changes to electoral laws that would favour the Croats and the Serbs and would give them disproportionate representation in Bosnia. Everyone in Bosnia is South Slav, but by religion 30% are Serb, 15% are Croat and more than 50% are Bosnian Muslims. That is 1.8 million Bosnian Muslims. Bosnia matters to us because, if the Croats and the Serbs were to divide the country in half, I suspect we would find thousands of Bosnian Muslims seeking an alternative home in Europe, and I am pretty sure which direction they might well take. It matters to us in a practical way. We might find we had a heck of a lot more refugees—and they would be refugees; they are not displaced persons if they are fleeing their homeland because of persecution In the early 1990s, the international community, including our country, suffered from a paralysis about the Bosnian situation, underpinned perhaps by the fact that people just could not or did not want to get to grips with it. We cannot allow that to happen again. For me, there are two lessons from the 1990s that are directly applicable to what is happening now. First, dividing Bosnia will not work, and secondly—this is where we come in, as my right hon. Friend the Member for Sutton Coldfield (Mr Mitchell) and my hon. Friend the Member for Rutland and Melton (Alicia Kearns) have said—the only way to get a solution is for the international community to be involved What can we do? I will largely repeat what I said in last week’s debate, with a few changes. First, we have to sustain Dayton at least until we get something to replace it. It is not great, but it has stopped people dying, and we need to keep it limping on until we get a better arrangement. Secondly, Mr Christian Schmidt, the High Representative, requires our absolute and unequivocal support. He must be given all the power we can allow to help him to stop the country going backwards—that means from everyone in the international community Thirdly, we need another Dayton. Maybe we can call it Dayton II. I would not mind it being in Lancaster House, because that is a good place to sort out the international community. It requires the involvement of the United Nations, yes, and that would be a problem on the Security Council, since Russia is not being particularly helpful and China is mixing it a bit too. It requires the United States, it requires the European Union and of course it requires Serbia and Russia. We must also have the presence of the Bosnian Serbs. Representatives from Republika Srpska have to be there. They were not there at Dayton I, as I recall Fourthly, a point I totally agree with, we should lead. The European Union is at sixes and sevens over Bosnia. Some of its members openly support Republika Srpska, and it has given Republika Srpska quite a massive subsidy. That has encouraged the Bosnian Serbs to believe they will have support from the European Union, or elements of it. On the subject of Bosnia, the European Union certainly does not speak with one voice and it is largely hamstrung—it can do nothing. Take the United States, which as far as I can ascertain has largely gone back to its traditional, isolationist-type approach: "Europe, sort yourself out," might be the maxim. So we must lead. This country must and can lead Fifth and finally—I have a right to say this—we must be prepared to send our soldiers to stop people dying in Bosnia; to support any political initiative, of course. Politics comes first, but sometimes peacekeeping requires someone on horseback. We have a great man to help us in the Balkans now. Air Chief Marshall Sir Stuart Peach was appointed as the Prime Minister’s special envoy to the western Balkans last week. He has recently finished as chairman of the military committee in NATO headquarters, and as such was the highest ranking officer in the alliance, even above Supreme Allied Commander Europe. I cannot think of anyone more suited to help Bosnia than Stuart Peach. We also have a very distinguished ambassador in Sarajevo. Matthew Field has been there since August 2018. He is hugely respected. People in Bosnia have told me how much they respect our ambassador. I know Matt well, and his experience and wise counsel should be used. Messrs Peach and Field are extremely well qualified to help Bosnia, and I urge the Government as well as this House to totally support them in their de facto and most crucial mission, which is to save Bosnia from another disastrous war.