Nuclear Weapons (International Relations Committee Report) — House of Lords, 2019-07-16
Topic: Defense
Bruce Joseph Grocott (Labour, Centre-left): My Lords, it is inevitable that debates of this sort will be pretty sombre in tone, because this is an extremely sombre—if not deadly serious—subject. But the timing of our report and indeed of this debate comes on the eve of the 50th anniversary of the establishment of the non-proliferation treaty, which in itself is some relief from the entirely sombre atmosphere that has inevitably characterised this debate. Even if it is not a cause for celebration, my word, in its 50 years this treaty has given us a great deal to be quietly satisfied about. It has been ratified, nearly universally, by 191 states. It has held in unlikely combination the nuclear and non-nuclear states. There have been successes in all its three so-called pillars: non-proliferation, disarmament, and the peaceful use of nuclear technology There has also been a growth in the number of nuclear-free zones. I commend to the House the map of the world on page 51—it was my idea, which makes it spring to mind—which shows the areas where non-proliferation treaties are in operation, covering the whole of the southern hemisphere, including Latin America and Africa. There are seven separate treaties, in many cases with unpronounceable names, establishing nuclear-free zones over large swathes of the planet. And, of course, there have been dramatic reductions in the number of nuclear warheads during this period—although I do not claim that that is all down to the NPT We should be quite proud also in a number of respects of Britain’s role as a nuclear state that is a signatory to the NPT. We have been a nuclear state and have demonstrated our commitment to nuclear disarmament. In the late 1970s we had over 400 warheads, but by the mid-2020s we will be looking at 180. There are fewer warheads and fewer operational missiles on each submarine. We are the only nuclear state to have reduced our deterrent capability to a single system. At a technical level, the committee visited Aldermaston and saw the extremely important work that was being done on nuclear disarmament verification. With that work we have also demonstrated how nuclear and non-nuclear states—in this case, Norway—can work together, to their collective advantage. But that picture, which to a degree balances the argument and the 50th anniversary, should be set aside; I am certainly not pretending that there are not substantial difficulties, a couple of which I will mention First, to state the opposite, there has not been a complete absence of nuclear proliferation. The number of nuclear states has almost doubled, from five to nine, during the time of the treaty. The four nuclear states who are outside the NPT have a fraction of the number of warheads held by NPT nuclear states, but they are significant none the less. We list them in our report. It is estimated that Pakistan has 140 to 150 nuclear warheads; India has 130 to 140; Israel has 80; and North Korea 10 to 20. Of course, North Korea is a special case for all sorts of reasons that I cannot possibly go into, but are the other nuclear states outside the ambit of the NPT now in the "impossible to resolve" category—"We can’t do anything about it, so let’s not even try"—or is there a medium or longer than medium-term strategy to try to bring all the states of the United Nations within the ambit of the treaty Then there is the question of the proposed Middle East nuclear-free zone. It was as long ago as 1995 that the review conference of that year stated that the development of nuclear-free zones, of which I have mentioned a number, should be encouraged as a matter of priority, and specifically mentioned the importance of establishing one in the Middle East. Since then, progress has been glacial. Last year, however, a UN resolution called for a conference on a weapons of mass destruction-free zone in the Middle East to be held in 2019. In our report, we state that the UK should continue to support work towards such a conference and should encourage Israel to participate. I am afraid that the Government in their reply say that the UK remains committed to the 1995 NPT resolution—of which, incidentally, we were co-sponsors —but they remain undecided about whether to participate in the forthcoming UN conference, giving a long list of difficulties Of course there are difficulties. This is the most dangerous region in the world, with current or recent wars in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, not to mention Iran and the JCPOA. But to say that we may well not attend a UN conference to try to reduce the risk of weapons of mass destruction being deployed in this most dangerous of regions seems inexplicable, and I would really like a response on that from the Minister Another challenge to the NPT mentioned by previous speakers that is always simmering is the relationship between the nuclear and the non-nuclear states. This is particularly relevant at the moment because the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons—the so-called ban treaty—has been adopted by no fewer than 122 states. The signatory states range from Austria to Brazil, from South Africa to New Zealand—but, crucially, they include none of the nuclear weapon states who are signatories to the NPT The Government have been critical of the ban treaty, saying that it would compete with the NPT and would not deliver as good an outcome, and our committee agreed with that. But surely, as other speakers have said, the significance of the ban treaty is not so much its precise wording as what it represents, which is at least in part a concern by the non-nuclear signatories to the NPT that the nuclear states need to be more active in moving towards nuclear disarmament—a wake-up call, if you like. That is why I particularly welcome our committee’s recommendation 263: "We therefore recommend that the Government should adopt a less aggressive tone about this treaty and seek opportunities to work with its supporters towards the aims of … the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which concerns disarmament" The Government’s response recognises the crucial importance of keeping the nuclear states and the non-nuclear states together. However, given the U.K.’s role in nuclear weapons reduction, to which I referred earlier, we are surely well placed among the nuclear powers to continue our engagement with the non-nuclear states on how to make progress on multilateral disarmament. I would welcome any assurance from the Minister that, although we cannot sign the ban treaty, we are absolutely committed to the motivation behind the ban and will work closely with non-nuclear states to meet the concerns that the ban treaty reflects Fifty years old next year, the NPT remains essentially a good news story, with most of its essentials remaining intact. But for it to continue being a good news story, there can be no room for any complacency. It needs good housekeeping and constant vigilance.