EU Referendum and EU Reform (EUC Report) — House of Lords, 2016-06-15
Topic: International Affairs
Julie Smith (Liberal Democrats, Centre to centre-left): My Lords, I welcome the suite of reports that came from your Lordships’ European Union Committee and, in particular, the fact that finally we have some documents contributing to the debate on the UK’s future in the European Union that are based on fact and evidence and, as The Process for Withdrawing from the European Union states, conclusions that are as far as possible neutral statements of fact. That has been very rare in the debate that we have seen in the country in recent weeks and months. We have seen fear, mendacity, hyperbole and hysteria on both sides of the argument, and that includes some of the actions of Her Majesty's Government; they cannot be exonerated either. We have heard from both sides arguments based on fear, myth and fantasy. But it may not surprise noble Lords, particularly the noble Lord, Lord Pearson of Rannoch, that I intend to focus particularly on the issue of what we might be withdrawing from and where we might be going to As the noble Lord, Lord Liddle, pointed out, there is an issue about why we are leaving and what the leavers think we are doing. First, though, I suggest that those who would have us leave, having already left the Chamber for today, have no agreed position on what it is they think they are leaving. If we are in the realms of fantasy and fairy stories, I thought I might give noble Lords a modern fairy story based on Goldilocks and the Three Bears. I suggest that at least three different visions of what the European Union currently is are being put forward by the leavers. The first, the Daddy Bear scenario, is that the EU is a dangerous place that has entrapped and ensnared us. As the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth of Drumlean, put it very graphically, we are caught in a bear trap, bleeding to death. One notes that this poor bear is looking at a £10 note, wondering how he got it when it used to be a £20 note, thanking God that it is not a euro note but still being extremely puzzled by how he ended up in an enterprise that he never thought he had agreed to be in Mummy Bear, meanwhile, is represented by my Cambridge colleague Dr Christopher Bickerton, who says that actually both sides of the debate have got it wrong and that the European Union is not overbearing, it is not a very strong edifice, it is not powerful and, although it is not particularly democratic, it is actually a mirage. The closer you get to Brussels, the more you see that the EU does not really exist. So Mummy Bear disappears as a mirage Meanwhile, Goldilocks goes and talks to Baby Bear, thinking, "Surely this third member of the family will have a better understanding of the European Union". But she walks in and finds him with the godfather, Daniel Hannan, reading him a goodnight story: not Why Vote Leave but his elegant essay A Doomed Marriage: Britain and Europe—not necessarily something you would think was suitable for small bears or children, but nevertheless something that explains why the UK and the EU are fated to be separate and not to be together So we have three very different visions of what the European Union currently is, and the leavers cannot even agree on what it is they think they want to leave. Now they are trying to persuade us that we should vote to leave and negotiate some new arrangement. Of the three scenarios, the idea of a marriage breaking up is probably the best and most relevant. With regard to how we would get out of this European marriage, there is now a legal mechanism, thanks to Article 50, and your Lordships’ European Union Committee report makes it very clear how that would work legally. However, we do not have any practical experience of how this European divorce would work in practice because it would be the first time that Article 50 had ever been triggered. But one of the things that we know about divorce in the real world is that it is usually expensive and very often acrimonious. Even if a couple think they will be happier apart than together, it is very rare to have a divorce that does not include lawyers—who benefit probably more than anybody else—and that does not end up being costly. Then you leave behind the rest of the family The parallels with the United Kingdom leaving the European Union are surely clear. There is a legal process that is as yet untried, but the reality is one that is human, emotional and economic. The 27 other states that we are leaving behind, just like leaving members of a family, are not going to say, "That’s fine, off you go. We’re happy to see you go but we’ll carry on trading with you just like before". Inevitably, those whom we leave behind will have a sense of hurt and betrayal, particularly given the amount of time that the other 27 states, plus the European Commission, spent on trying to create a deal that would work for the UK and keep us in the EU The leavers are not just saying, "Let’s have a divorce" but suggesting that they want another relationship altogether. Perhaps they want to go back to EFTA, which is what Daniel Hannan suggested recently—like a girlfriend they left behind years ago, trading her in for the European Economic Community because they thought that was the better offer. Like a long-term spouse, the EEC may have changed—but it is still your long-term spouse of over 40 years. Do you really want to give that up and walk away at considerable cost, trading it in for the mistress—the European Economic Area? Eventually you will find that being with a mistress is quite similar to being with a wife, except that your original family are a little unhappy, to say the least. They still have loyalty to the wife—the European Union. You have probably ended up with a slightly inferior relationship and have begun to wonder why you did it. Was it all worth taking the risk? I suggest not. The United Kingdom should not head towards an Article 50 type of divorce I hope that this will all turn out to have been just a fairy story, with Baby Bear waking up and finding that he has chased away the demons of Uncle Dan. I very much hope that citizens of the United Kingdom will do likewise on Thursday of next week; otherwise, they will only have bought into a cruel deceit and an unhelpful fantasy.