Inflation — House of Lords, 2019-07-01
Topic: Macroeconomics
Denis Tunnicliffe (Labour, Centre-left): My Lords, I join other noble Lords in congratulating the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, on securing this debate, on his committee’s report and on his speech, which he delivered in his usual clear and fairly concise manner. I find myself in a state of shock, praising him in such an effusive way. This is not normal, but we do not live in normal times. The two Tory candidates for the role of Prime Minister are in a bidding war to spend public money. They seem keen to overtake the Labour Party on the left. It will all end in tears, and one of the malign manifestations will be—yes—inflation The topic of the report is the measurement of inflation, an involved and important topic. It is one that particularly resonates with members of my generation, given the centrality of inflation to political debate and media coverage of the economy during the 1960s and 1970s. We are also, sadly, the generation that tends to have index-linked pensions. I have four, I think, but I have lost track of which is CPI and which is RPI. The Economic Affairs Committee has done a valuable service in analysing a faulty methodology, concluding that the Office for National Statistics is failing in its statutory duty to provide accurate economic data. The old established measurement, the retail price index, is subject to much criticism in the report. It has, since 2010, showed a wide discrepancy from the consumer price index, with the gap between the two rising from 0.5% to around 0.8% This is of the greatest significance in modern times, as the Government have developed a habit of choosing to apply the lower CPI measure when spending money and the higher RPI measure when collecting it. As Martin Lewis, the founder of MoneySavingExpert.com, said: "Where it costs us more, they use RPI. Where it costs the state, they use CPI. There is no logical justification, it does not make any sense whatsoever. It’s a very simple way of cooking the books" The report refers to this practice as inflation-shopping and calls for the use of a single measure of inflation in future As I do not want to repeat points made by many other noble Lords, let me briefly cover why that trend is so problematic. Many welfare benefits are subject to the four-year freeze, which we on these Benches continue to find deplorable. For those benefits uprated each year, such as those aimed at disabled people or carers, the increase is capped at the level of CPI. On the other hand, interest on student loans rises by up to RPI plus 3% each year. The House of Commons Library has estimated an additional cost to students of £16,000 over the lifetime of their loan Ministers allow regulated rail fares to rise by the rate of RPI each year, although average pay growth has tended to fall below that level in recent years. Meanwhile, the Office of Rail and Road has confirmed that it will transition to CPI for new connection contracts, as with access contracts. This is designed to lower train operators’ costs, but also to cut state subsidy. Alongside this change, the Secretary of State for Transport wrote to rail unions asking them to calculate wage increases by CPI. Despite warm words, there has been no specific pledge that savings will be passed on to commuters These examples highlight that an acute aspect of the problem is the Chancellor’s considerable say in the use of different inflation measures. The UK Statistics Authority has admitted that there is a problem with the RPI but has not ordered a correction in the formula because doing so would impact on many UK Government bondholders Box 6 of the committee’s report provided a helpful summary of the clearly defined legal duties on the UK Statistics Authority. Section 7 of the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 outlines a public interest in the provision of quality official statistics. Section 21 requires the Chancellor to consent to any fundamental change in the inflation index that would be detrimental to gilt investors—something that the UKSI’s chairman did not believe would be forthcoming. However, both the Chief Secretary to the Treasury and the Chancellor said in their evidence that they would be happy to discuss any proposals for change. I put it to Ministers that the general interest in Section 7 should far outweigh the limited interest in Section 21 and that an appropriate response should be to correct the RPI measure incrementally The committee was critical of the UK Statistics Authority for its treatment of RPI as a legacy measure, given that it is still widely used, particularly in pay settlements. As the trade unions have outlined, RPI has long existed as the main reference point for pay negotiations. It has been estimated that a general shift to CPI would see the average worker’s salary fall by £350 per year. It would also have a significant impact on pensions In March 2018, the Department for Work and Pensions calculated that a switch to CPI on defined benefit pensions would result in, "a £12,000 reduction in the value of pension income per affected member, on average over their lifetime" The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries believes that if a scheme were to change inflation indexes, a 65 year- old man who had been expecting pension increases in line with RPI could expect to receive aggregate lifetime pension payments about 10% to 15% lower Where do we go from here? The report notes that, in true "third way" style, the Government, the Bank of England and the UK Statistics Authority increasingly see CPIH, which includes owner-occupiers’ housing costs, as a preferred longer-term measure. However, the committee outlines how CPIH has faced problems since its introduction in 2013. It echoed the views of several witnesses, who raised concerns about the use of rental equivalence in CPIH and called for more work to be done before a single measure of inflation is identified and adopted It is clear that the Government are not yet in a position to fulfil the committee’s wish of selecting a single measure, but the proposed five-year timescale identified by the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, and his colleagues appears sensible. Given the importance of inflation measures for the everyday costs of people up and down the country, I hope the Minister will be able to demonstrate that the Government now have a firmer grip on this issue than was suggested in their evidence to the committee.