European Union (Withdrawal) Bill — House of Lords, 2018-01-30
Topic: International Affairs
Dick Taverne (Liberal Democrats, Centre to centre-left): My Lords, not for the first time I shall express a minority viewpoint. I believe that there will be no deal. The excellent report by the EU Select Committee Brexit: Deal or no Deal pointed out the devastating consequences of no deal but did not address its likelihood—and if it is even a possibility this Bill requires major amendment Why is no deal likely? The Government envisage three stages of Brexit. Stage 1 is agreeing a framework for a new relationship with the 27 before the Article 50 leaving date. Stage 2 is, as part of a transition agreement lasting two years, a standstill period during which we negotiate the details of the new relationship and meanwhile preserve the status quo. Stage 3 is an implementation period to allow business to adapt to the new relationship At the moment, the Cabinet and the Tory party are hopelessly divided about the nature of the new relationship they seek—and if they fail to agree there will just be no deal. They are also divided about the meaning of the status quo. If it means staying in the customs union and the single market and accepting the obligations of both, it means paying our dues and accepting the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice and any regulations and directives made by the EU. As two unlikely allies have pointed out, Britain would become a vassal state. The noble Lord, Lord Kerr, was the first to coin the phrase, which has now been echoed by Jacob Rees-Mogg But the alternative touted for a soft Brexit of a new kind of customs union with a frictionless border is not regarded as credible by anyone outside Britain, while access to the single market without its obligations—a kind of bespoke new single market—will be unacceptable to the EU. Mrs Merkel and many others have often pointed this out, but the Government have not heard them Moreover, since the Government have ruled out even temporary membership of the customs union, the problem of a hard Irish border, fudged last December, remains insoluble. Since the 26 have promised full support for Ireland, this issue alone will mean no agreement—and no agreement with the EU on the framework means no deal. Furthermore, the transition agreement with the EU will be far more complicated than the Government envisage. A period of two years is unlikely to prove long enough—and, again, if it is not agreed before the leaving date there will be no deal The crucial question, if there is no deal, is when the meaningful vote by Parliament will take place and what the choice on offer will be. As for when, it must be before October—before we leave—as it must allow time for approval by the European Parliaments. The choice cannot be what the Government seem to envisage: either accepting or rejecting no deal. Accepting means leaving; rejecting cannot mean telling the Government to go back and renegotiate. That would be wholly unrealistic. The only real alternative would be either withdrawing Article 50 or holding a new referendum, when it would this time be clear what Brexit actually means. As the noble Lord, Lord Butler, observed earlier, we will need an amendment to the Bill to ensure that the choice of a new referendum is part of a meaningful vote by Parliament.