Brexit: Appointment of Joint Committee — House of Lords, 2019-07-03
Topic: International Affairs
Peter Hain (Labour, Centre-left): My Lords, I appeal to both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt—more in hope than in expectation, I fear—to read the cogent, cool and indisputable speech of the noble Lord, Lord Kerr. It would be a mercy for us all, if they did One of the principles set out in the Prime Minister’s letter triggering Article 50 was that the UK’s withdrawal from the EU would cause no harm to the Republic of Ireland. This is vital because the bilateral relationship between our Government and the Republic’s is the lynchpin of the 1998 Good Friday agreement and the peace process. Yet a no-deal Brexit would have profoundly damaging consequences for both the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, which voted by 56% to 44% to remain in the EU in 2016 Back in late 2010, the coalition Government proposed a small bilateral loan to the Republic at the height of the financial crisis. The Chancellor George Osborne then said: "I judge this to be in Britain’s national interest … Ireland accounts for 5% of Britain’s total exports … we export more to Ireland than to Brazil, Russia, India and China put together. Ireland is the only country with which we share a land border, and in Northern Ireland our economies are particularly linked, with two-fifths of their exports going to the Republic"—[Official Report, Commons, 22/10/10; col. 38.] Those are the words of the former Chancellor. Fully two-fifths of Northern Ireland’s exports go to the Republic Ireland’s economy repaid the loan and has bounced back since those dark days of 2010. Our fifth largest export destination has increased its trade with us to over £50 billion a year; 200,000 jobs here in Britain are with Irish companies; 60,000 directors of UK companies are Irish citizens; and the Dublin-London air route is the world’s second busiest. With no deal, the Republic officially foresees up to 85,000 job losses, just at the point where the Irish economy has reached full employment. A hard-earned return to budget surplus will reverse back into a deficit, with knock-on effects for public services and infrastructure investment, and of course serious damage for its close neighbour, Northern Ireland If Brexit really does have to happen, I will agree with the spirit and letter of the backstop arrangements—an insurance policy to ensure that the border stays open at all costs. Make no mistake: no deal means a hard border—a legal requirement of WTO, and therefore EU, external frontier rules. The impact on Northern Ireland and its fragile economy would be grave. The head of the Northern Ireland Civil Service, in measured words, wrote to the political parties of Northern Ireland earlier this year: "The consequences of material business failure as a result of a ‘no-deal’ exit, combined with changes to everyday life and potential border frictions could well have a profound and long-lasting impact on society ... a no-deal exit could result in additional challenges for the police" Wales’s key port of Holyhead, the third busiest port in the UK, its work overwhelmingly with Ireland, would be especially badly hit. As the Welsh First Minister, Mark Drakeford, said, "a no-deal Brexit would be catastrophic for the Welsh economy". One-third of the value of cross-border trade is in agri-food, and there is simply no way of maintaining the frictionless trade and processing of such goods—including all of Northern Ireland’s fresh milk, which is processed in the Republic—across the border in a no-deal scenario. The import duties, plus detailed rules that require certification, document inspections and checks on agri-food products crossing the border, will all but cripple the industry. Ninety-four per cent of those who trade across the Irish border are small or micro-enterprises. Few, if any, of these have the capacity or resources to implement the measures needed in a cliff-edge Brexit—still less the resources to pay sudden new tariffs One of the most likely means of temporarily managing the catastrophic fallout for Northern Ireland would be for the UK and the EU to invoke Article XXI(b)(iii) of GATT—the so-called "security clause". This would allow exemption from the responsibility to properly enforce a customs border on the grounds that the reimposition of customs controls would pose a risk to the peace process. However, in so doing, we would be essentially declaring Northern Ireland unstable, insecure and unfit for normal trading or investment—in other words, doing the dirty work of the dissident republican terrorists for them As your Lordships’ Select Committee on the European Union has pointed out, the costs and disruptions from the customs requirements, including tariffs, that would flow from trading under the very WTO rules that hard Brexiteers, including potentially our future Prime Minister, champion, "could severely affect the border and UK-Irish relations" The Good Friday agreement, recognised as a treaty under international law, brought peace after decades of horrific conflict, but it would be catastrophically damaged by no deal Both the Tory leader candidates yesterday spuriously suggested that novel, but so far completely unidentified, technology can prevent a hard border, but unless there are common trade regulations and customs rules on either side of the border, no amount of fancy, undeveloped technology can resolve the problem. It is not the backstop but a no-deal Brexit that will threaten the union between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, which is a major reason why no deal must be stopped, and stopped now.