Budget Statement — House of Lords, 2015-03-25
Topic: Macroeconomics
Bryan Davies (Labour, Centre-left): My Lords, I begin by craving the indulgence of the House. My noble friend Lord Stevenson caught my ear; I was present at the memorial service, and the defence of the arts by Lord Attenborough was a brilliant speech, reprinted in the programme. On either side of it were sayings from Mahatma Gandhi and a Shakespeare sonnet. As far as I was concerned, the service was a work of art in itself on paper before we actually heard the words being read. It was a great occasion I would also like to comment on my noble friend Lord Graham. He and I won adjoining seats in Enfield in 1974 and served together there for a number of years. I was delighted that he spoke this evening. I know that it was a limited area on which he spoke and probably pretty marginal to the Budget, but I think it gave cheer to us all that he puts a very high priority on service in this House in difficult times This has been an excellent Budget debate—but so was the debate in the House of Commons, which of course went over several days, in which many of the contributions were extremely thoughtful and well worked-through. That suggests that the debate we will have in the country in the general election may reach rather greater heights than some people suggest our political culture is now capable of. It did not start off too well because, as my noble friend Lord Lea indicated, there was pretty well nothing in the Chancellor’s speech about the macroeconomy. It is not long before the election so he indulged in a political speech, but he said little about the macroeconomy We had nothing on the question of our balance of payments problem. We had nothing on productivity. In fact, those issues seem to be suffused in the general aura of success, which the noble Lord, Lord Deighton, succeeded in imitating, to a degree, in his opening contribution this evening. What success? The success of the economic plan—but that economic plan became long term when it failed because the Chancellor could not deliver an end to the budget deficit in 2015. So, we have an extended plan, and that plan has some very dire implications indeed It is quite clear—it is all in the Red Book—that, as my noble friend Lord Stevenson and many other speakers in the debate said, we have not seen anything yet. The cuts of the past five years are going to be exceeded in three years, which will have a dramatic effect upon our economy and our society. And for why? As the noble Lord, Lord Skidelsky, identified, the Government’s original position way back in 2010 was a false analysis of the crisis leading to some pretty awful solutions to it. My noble friend Lord Layard identified very clearly the basis of the false analysis: that it was all down to excessive spending by the past Labour Government. No, it was not. This country was the second lowest in debt of the advanced countries when we left office and it was not the case that our expenditure had run out of control. What happened was that the global financial crisis, which started in the United States, as described most excellently by my noble friend Lord Rooker, reduced the receipts of government to a calamitous extent Of course it needed a significant response, but the idea that it called for a Government imbued with a philosophy of reducing the size of the state and doing everything that they can to get public expenditure down, irrespective of the impact upon our economy and society, it did not need and has not needed but has unfortunately received thus far under this Administration. The task of noble Lords on my side of the House is to make sure that this Government get no opportunity to extend their ill thought-through plans based upon a completely false premise We have to recognise that the expenditure cuts that are coming are coming against a base where cuts have been so sharp already that we are getting right to the bone. How can the police meet their obligations with the kinds of cuts that are likely to face them? What about defence? After all, that has, on the whole, been an issue that has concerned the Conservative Party in particular over the years. What does it think about this debate about the 2% figure if defence is to bear its share of the cuts? As defence is an unprotected sector, it is going to, if this Government were returned to power What about other areas of expenditure? Local government spends a very great deal of its expenditure on social support and welfare for children and the aged. It is going to get a massive cut in those resources if this Government continue in office The challenge is clear. We need to establish that this Government have presided over failure and the slowest recovery for over a century, with a desperate price being exacted from ordinary people What about the bedroom tax? The Government recoil at Labour’s proposal on the mansion tax directed towards the wealthy in our society and those who take advantage of the London housing position, to which the noble Baroness, Lady Valentine, referred. Housing in London is critical. We cannot keep the economy of London running if there is a flight of large numbers of people from the city because housing is too expensive because of foreign investment. That is so obvious, but what did the Government say about housing in the Chancellor’s Budget speech? Nothing of any significance We have a major task to tackle after what has been a desperate decline in growth, lost revenues, as the noble Lord, Lord Skidelsky, identified so very clearly, and then a little bit of a spurt before the general election, which is about to be put at enormous risk if the Government carry on with their existing policies. It is quite clear that we have a low-wage, low-productivity economy in which people get poor returns for their work and, as the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Portsmouth, identified, many of them are still subject to a marginal rate of taxation—if you take taxation plus national insurance—which renders it difficult for them to sustain their living standards. We know that the success of an economy cannot be based on low wages and low productivity, not least because the only way in which it has been continued thus far is because migration figures are so high and large numbers of our labour force are earning low wages and doing jobs in circumstances where wider society is more reluctant to respond We have 1.8 million zero-hours contracts in this country at present. The tax and national insurance combination has extended to considerable levels. We have a £300 billion deficit on our balance of payments. I will just mention the success story of 2011-12: we lost our triple A credit status. This Chancellor dares to come before the country to say, "Give me a renewal of the mandate because I am doing so well". In fact, what is reflected is a colossal failure That means that we need to take different measures. Labour is quite clear what we are going to do. We intend to raise living standards by increasing the minimum wage, because we do not think that a low-wage economy makes any sense. We intend to safeguard the National Health Service, because we are terrified that such is the level of cuts promised in this Budget, they are bound to impact on the health service. They do in any case, because cuts in social welfare thrust people into the health service through the accident and emergency service. The leakage is already there, but it is due to get a great deal worse if this Government are able to follow through on their plans We intend to cut business rates for 1.5 million small business properties by not reducing corporation tax—with a slight increase to corporation tax. We also intend to deal with housing in the only way that one can, which is to build houses. It is not a problem of illegitimate demand—it is a problem of supply. I should have thought that the party of Macmillan in the 1950s would recognise that Governments can put their back into creating supply of houses if they are prepared to do it and it is defined as a priority. By heavens, it ought to be a priority in our country at present We are also going to balance the budget and the books in a fair way. That means we shall take a slightly different view on the bedroom tax, which we intend to scrap, and on tax cuts for the very wealthy in our society—the millionaires.