Queen’s Speech — House of Lords, 2021-05-12
Topic: Macroeconomics
David Maxim Triesman (Non-Affiliated, Unknown): My Lords, I draw attention to my interests as set out in the register and add my congratulations on the two maiden speeches and the valedictory speech of the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Portsmouth, whom I also will miss This is the time to consider the likely developments in our economy. With luck and care, we should emerge from the pandemic. We are now in the first phase of our economic lives post-Brexit. We may be, I fear, in a renewed phase of seeking the break-up of the United Kingdom. The threats of uncontrolled climate change and opaque ethics are now fully upon us. There is probably an undercurrent of rising inflation. My point in saying this is not about gloom, despite the fact that we are at the bottom of the recovery league. I accept that it is possible that we may not face a long-term depressed outlook. The IMF’s world economic outlook suggests faster recovery in advanced economies, with stronger data than anticipated, greater health resilience, which we are enjoying in this country, and a growing impact from the scale of the US fiscal stimulus However, it, and I, fear that it is probably not all going in the right direction for our economy. Past impediments to growth following a crisis could have less impact this time. In particular, growth pre-crisis was weak, not unsustainably strong, and government measures have limited, to some extent, supply-side damage. I believe that there are still massive headwinds, but with appropriate legislation they may be mitigated a little. With care about Covid and its mutations, we may avoid permanently damaging GDP to a huge extent, but we will none the less have to navigate with crucial trade partners who are less successful in containing the pandemic What should we watch out for? For much more, I fear, than is in the gracious Speech, because we are in a bad place and a Biden-style stimulus package could have been meaningful. First, I strongly commend DIT and BEIS and the noble Lord, Lord Grimstone, personally. I have seen the quality of the efforts to bring major green manufacturing to England. They are thorough and energetic and, with the right incentives, they could be successful—but businesses must play their part with equal energy Secondly, in the difficult box, the first day of business after the transition period saw $7.9 billion in daily trading—about half of London’s pre-Brexit average—move to EU stock exchanges, and that is a continuing problem. It is a major trauma in anybody’s book. Negotiations to recreate equivalence recognition is mission-critical if London is not to lose its crown permanently Thirdly, we would be foolish, perhaps mad, to ignore the fault-lines between the home nations. Our economic and defence infrastructures, not just the tally of parliamentary seats, should tell us that this is an existential threat. The Prime Minister is surely wrong to describe devolution as a disaster; both the home nations and the English regions want their hands, at least to some extent, on the steering wheel. It is our job to help design the best approach to doing that Fourthly, I welcome every effort to build back greener by exceeding targets. There is no time to lose on targets and climate repair, but there is yet to be a comprehensive UK plan. Along with my noble friend Lord Browne of Ladyton, the former Chief Scientific Adviser Sir David King, and Martin Bellamy of Salamanca Group, I have had the honour of creating the Clean Growth Leadership Network, which brings together scientists, businesspeople, policymakers and academics, not just to think outside their silos but to do the job together Finally, as important as shareholders’ interests are, the new environment—not least the risks to climate—demands that we focus legislation also on stakeholders. Trust and value must be delivered to a spectrum of stakeholders. What we bequeath cannot be defined simply in terms of shareholders. We are not, after all, aspirant members of the European super league. Economic realities touch the lives of everyone in every community. If we value the future, let us now look at it through this lens and reorientate. We will fail abjectly if we continue to conduct ourselves to the standards set by Greensill or some of the Covid PPE procurements. I hope that simplifying procurement in the public sector will not knock us off the ethics ladder altogether. We are famous in this country for the rule of law, not for an ability to massage it out of shape. Ethical businesses will not come here and invest if we demonstrate indifference to ethics. Unethical businesses will come, and they will harm us. Government integrity is not an optional extra.