argyrotsipi/train-dataset huggingface dataset:
Charter for Budget Responsibility — House of Commons, 2015-01-13
Topic: Macroeconomics
Edward Michael Balls (Labour, Centre-left): The problem is that the Chancellor said he would make people better off, and they are actually worse off at the end of this Parliament; he said he would balance the books, but he has not got the deficit down, and the reason is that trend growth and productivity have been weaker than he expected in 2010, which means the tax revenues have not come in. So in fact the opposite is true. It shows that we need a proper plan for jobs and growth to turn around the underlying growth of the economy. On that, he has totally failed to deliver.
Charter for Budget Responsibility — House of Commons, 2015-01-13
Topic: Macroeconomics
Edward Michael Balls (Labour, Centre-left): In a second. First, let me turn to the fiscal mandate, because this is where the Chancellor’s position becomes, to be honest, farcical. The current fiscal charter says: "The Treasury’s mandate for fiscal policy lapses at the dissolution of this Parliament." Rather than lapses, I would say that it has totally collapsed in this Parliament. It is totally discredited. Even the TaxPayers Alliance can now see how discredited the Chancellor’s forecasts are for this Parliament, but the Chancellor has a bail-out clause, because in the old charter it says that he has a "duty to set out a fiscal mandate" which "will require the Treasury to set out a revised mandate for fiscal policy as soon as possible in the life of the new Parliament." This Chancellor, always alive to trying to find a new gimmick, decided—and has told every Tory commentator going—that this is a new trap for Labour. That is what we are going to get. It is not a stunt; it is not a gimmick; it is a trap for Labour. The problem is that, as we have seen today, this has been an opportunity for us, him and the TaxPayers Alliance to highlight to the country how much he has totally failed in this Parliament on fiscal policy. It is not only a chance to show how extreme his plans are for the next Parliament—and I will come to that—but he has not even managed to deliver the trap he promised.
Charter for Budget Responsibility — House of Commons, 2015-01-13
Topic: Macroeconomics
Edward Michael Balls (Labour, Centre-left): Maybe we could form a consensus on the way forward on devolution for the regions—I am in favour of that and so is the hon. Gentleman—and that is not the only thing we could form a consensus on, because this is what he told ConservativeHome just recently: "A bit of extra tax on properties over £2 million seems perfectly fair to me." I am with him all the way. Maybe we should get together on that one as well—you shouldn’t have let that one through, George Let me come back to the vote and what the Chancellor said at the time of the Budget. He said: "Britain needs to run an absolute surplus in good years…To lock in our country’s commitment to this path of deficit reduction, we will seek the support of Parliament in a vote, and I will bring forward a new charter for budget responsibility this autumn."—[Official Report, 19 March 2014; Vol. 577, c. 784.] The vote was supposed to be on an absolute surplus. That is what the Chancellor was talking about. The Prime Minister on 15 December—the day the new charter was published—attacked Labour for our proposal for two or three years to get the current Budget into surplus. What was surprising about that speech was that the Prime Minister made it, did the Q and A, and got off the stage before the Treasury published the new charter. That was an odd thing to do when he was talking up the charter. Why would they not put it out in advance? It turned out to be because the Prime Minister had just finished a speech attacking Labour and our plan to get the current Budget into surplus, and then the Treasury published a new fiscal charter committing the Government to get the current Budget into surplus. No wonder he got off the stage so quickly The Chancellor promised in the last Budget a vote to balance the overall budget. Now the Government have done a U-turn and are proposing a vote on the current Budget excluding capital investment, which is the same measure we have been committed to for three years. Can he confirm that in the last Budget he promised a vote on an absolute Budget surplus and this charter before us is a vote on the current Budget? Is that right Also, when we study the fine print of this fiscal mandate, we find that it turns out to be even more different from the old one than I expected. The old fiscal mandate talked about having a target to balance the current Budget in 2015-16 and a target to have the national debt falling. We can see why this Chancellor has got a little worried about setting targets because they have not gone very well. It turns out that in this new document it has been downgraded from a target to an aim. Why have the words changed? Would the Chancellor like to explain?
Charter for Budget Responsibility — House of Commons, 2015-01-13
Topic: Macroeconomics
Edward Michael Balls (Labour, Centre-left): In a second As we established a moment ago, even though according to the Chancellor and the Prime Minister the vote is on balancing the current Budget in 2017-18, in fact when we read this charter, we find that there is no mention anywhere of the dates 2017-18. It is baffling that they are not there. Let me read it out. It talks about "a forward-looking aim to achieve cyclically-adjusted current balance by the end of the third year of the rolling, 5-year forecast period." What on earth does that mean?
Charter for Budget Responsibility — House of Commons, 2015-01-13
Topic: Macroeconomics
Edward Michael Balls (Labour, Centre-left): I will give way in a moment. Let me explain what is going on here. It is a three-year rolling target, so in 2015—[Interruption.] Let me explain it to the Deputy Chief Whip or whatever he is—the hon. Member for Croydon Central (Gavin Barwell). In 2015 the three-year target presumably refers to 2017-18, but in 2016 it is rolled forward to 2019 because that is three years later. In 2017, it rolls on to 2020 and in 2018 it rolls on to 2021. It is a three-year rolling target, so it rolls on, which means that the Chancellor could come back to the House in 2020 and say, "It is okay. Consistent with the charter, I am meeting the aim because I am balancing the current budget in 2023." That is what this says and it is utterly ridiculous. It does not even sign him and his party up to balancing the current budget by the end of the next Parliament. The fact is that for all the boasts, the rhetoric and the talk of traps, in this new charter before the House it is not targets but aims; it is not balancing the overall budget but the current budget; it is not an absolute commitment to deliver a surplus in the next Parliament, but an absolute commitment to a three-year rolling five-year target. The Chancellor has spent all of the past nine months telling everybody what a clever wheeze this is and, once again, it has totally backfired. It is less of a trap and more of a load of complete pony and trap. That is what we have before us today.
Charter for Budget Responsibility — House of Commons, 2015-01-13
Topic: Macroeconomics
Edward Michael Balls (Labour, Centre-left): He is. As my hon. Friend says, not only has the Chancellor overspent in this Parliament, but he is promising £12 billion of further cuts in the next Parliament, and as the IFS made clear in December, his party has been totally unspecific about where any of those will fall, beyond the fact that they will be hitting the tax credits of working people.
Charter for Budget Responsibility — House of Commons, 2015-01-13
Topic: Macroeconomics
Geoffrey Robinson (Labour, Centre-left): If the Chancellor wanted to say 2017-18, why did he not say 2017-18, instead of using this convoluted third year of a five-year rolling average? By definition, we never get to it—that is probably what his policy really is.
Charter for Budget Responsibility — House of Commons, 2015-01-13
Topic: Macroeconomics
Edward Michael Balls (Labour, Centre-left): It is either a three-year rolling five-year target to avoid ever getting to be judged on it, or it is because he could not get his quad partners to agree with it before the autumn statement. We know from the letter from the OBR that the quad signed up to the spending cuts, but perhaps the quad did not quite sign up to the fiscal charter the Chancellor wanted.
Charter for Budget Responsibility — House of Commons, 2015-01-13
Topic: Macroeconomics
Barry Strachan Gardiner (Labour, Centre-left): Does my right hon. Friend agree that perhaps the reason for the wording is that at any given point when the Chancellor is asked whether he has met the aim—not the target—he can say, "We are going to meet the aim because this is now the five-year rolling period and we aim to meet it in the third year"? But in no specific year will he actually be held to account for whether he has met it.
Charter for Budget Responsibility — House of Commons, 2015-01-13
Topic: Macroeconomics
Edward Michael Balls (Labour, Centre-left): Of course that is exactly what the Chancellor has done in this Parliament. In 2010, when he set his first mandate, he said that this would be done by the end of the rolling five-year forecast period. In 2010, the Prime Minister clearly thought that that meant 2015 but the Chancellor now thinks it means 2018 or 2019, which is why he still says he is meeting his fiscal target. Everybody else can see it is a completely preposterous claim.
Charter for Budget Responsibility — House of Commons, 2015-01-13
Topic: Macroeconomics
Edward Michael Balls (Labour, Centre-left): The hon. Gentleman did not mention the quote from the TaxPayers Alliance, which also said it was a complete gimmick. That simply exposes the fact that the Chancellor has failed to meet his targets. Now let me come on to our fiscal position—
Charter for Budget Responsibility — House of Commons, 2015-01-13
Topic: Macroeconomics
Edward Michael Balls (Labour, Centre-left): I will do so. Let me just say, for the interest of the former Chancellor, because it was not like this in his day or when I was in the Treasury, that our trend rate of growth in 2014—1.17%—puts us 19th out of 34 countries in the OECD. We have a lower underlying trend than Chile, Israel, South Korea, Australia, Mexico and Poland—and the list goes on. The right hon. and learned Gentleman is completely right: we have to find a way to strengthen the underlying growth of the economy Let me come on to Labour’s position. We will cut the deficit every year. We will get the current budget into surplus. We will get the national debt falling as soon as possible in the next Parliament, fully consistent with this fiscal charter. How fast we can do this will depend on what happens to growth, wages, the housing benefit bill and events around the world. But our approach will be very different from that of the Conservatives, on the following fronts. We believe, unlike the one-club Chancellor, that three different things need to be done to properly and fairly balance the books in the next Parliament. First, as we have said, because we will cut the deficit every year, there will be sensible spending cuts in non-protected areas. We will cut the winter allowance, taking it away from the richest 5% of pensioners. We will cap child benefit at 1% for two years, and our zero-based review is examining every pound the Government spend in order to find savings. Secondly, we will make different and fairer choices, including reversing this Government’s £3 billion-a-year top-rate tax cut for people earning more than £150,000. Thirdly, our plan will deliver the rising living standards and stronger—
Charter for Budget Responsibility — House of Commons, 2015-01-13
Topic: Macroeconomics
Edward Michael Balls (Labour, Centre-left): No. Our plan will deliver the rising living standards and stronger growth needed to balance the books: We will have more free child care, paid for by the bank levy; we will properly capitalise the business investment bank; we will raise the national minimum wage faster than wages; we will repeat the bank bonus tax to get young people back to work; we will devolve full growth in business rates to city and county regions; and we will get the houses built that we need—200,000 a year more by 2020. That is all part of a proper long-term plan for growth and jobs The OBR figures show that if our economy was not to slow down next year, the year after and the year after that but instead grew 0.5% faster, that cumulatively would bring in £32 billion in the next Parliament. If we could increase the underlying trend rate of growth in the next Parliament by 0.25%, that would mean £19 billion a year more in tax revenues by the end of the Parliament. This is not only about tax rises and spending cuts; it is also about growth, jobs and the underlying trend. This Chancellor has seen growth downgraded—we have got to do a better job. Unless we do that, we will not see the books balanced in the next Parliament. So that is what we mean by an economy that works for working people and a tough, fair and balanced plan to get the deficit down.
Charter for Budget Responsibility — House of Commons, 2015-01-13
Topic: Macroeconomics
Edward Michael Balls (Labour, Centre-left): We are going to put the top rate of tax back to 50% for people earning over £150,000, and if the hon. Gentleman wanted to win his seat, he would support it Instead this Chancellor is taking an increasingly unbalanced and extreme approach. Let us look at what he has failed to put in the charter. He has not included asking those with broader shoulders to make a greater contribution, as I just said. He has not said that we need to strengthen the underlying growth of our economy and improve living standards. Instead, he has made up for all that loss of tax revenue by imposing even bigger spending cuts in the autumn statement than he was planning Let me outline the facts to the House. More than 61% of planned departmental spending cuts are still to come in the next Parliament under this Chancellor. There is a further cut for unprotected Departments of 26.3% over the next four years, which is a third bigger than in the previous Parliament. There will be the biggest fall in day-to-day spending on public services in any four-year period since the second world war. That is what is in the Chancellor’s prospectus for his manifesto. We are talking about cuts that the Institute for Fiscal Studies has called "colossal" and that the OBR says will take spending on public services back to the level of the 1930s as a percentage of GDP. That is the Chancellor’s extreme and unbalanced plan, and that is what we are opposing.
Charter for Budget Responsibility — House of Commons, 2015-01-13
Topic: Government Operations
Stephen James McCabe (Labour, Centre-left): If Government Members are so dismissive of Labour’s plans, why will they not let the OBR independently audit our plans instead of using civil servants fraudulently to manufacture fictitious dossiers about Labour’s plans? Is it that they are scared?
Charter for Budget Responsibility — House of Commons, 2015-01-13
Topic: Macroeconomics
Edward Michael Balls (Labour, Centre-left): On the issue of the dossier, to which my hon. Friend just referred, the Conservative peer and former head of the Conservative party think-tank, Lord Finkelstein, described the figures in the Chancellor’s document as "ridiculous". Mr d’Ancona, the commentator from the Evening Standard, said: "Indeed, if the Tories are to win…they cannot afford schoolboy errors of the sort that wrecked their dossier this week" I will not say that they are fraudulent, but there was a whole series of untruths in that document, which the Chancellor should withdraw so that we can have a proper debate. He could go further than that and agree with the proposal from Labour, the Chair of the Treasury Committee and the Chief Secretary to the Treasury and not have the Chancellor—or supposedly the Treasury—costing Opposition policies based on political assumptions and special advisers. Why not ask the OBR to do that audit? He could have done that at any time in the past 18 months. Many have called for that to happen. [Hon. Members: "Why not?"] I will tell Members why not. It is because he has made £7 billion of unfunded and uncosted commitments to cut taxes, and he cannot say where the money will come from. Rather than having an honest debate, he wants to spread smears about Labour’s plans, which he knows will not stand up to independent scrutiny. That is the reason. He could have joined the cross-party consensus, and we could have been voting today in this new fiscal charter to allow the OBR to play that role. That is what should have happened. It is what we called for and what many others supported last year, but this Chancellor has ducked it because he does not have the courage to have an honest debate. That is the reality The Chancellor claims that his policy is working. There is nothing competent about borrowing £200 billion more than was planned. Our plan would cut the deficit every year and balance the books. His extreme plan will take public spending back to the level of the 1930s. This Chancellor should stop spending his time playing silly political games, which time and again backfire as they have backfired on him today. He should sort out the economy and spend a bit more time making his sums add up.
Charter for Budget Responsibility — House of Commons, 2015-01-13
Topic: Macroeconomics
Kelvin Peter Hopkins (Labour, Centre-left): The former Chancellor may remember that, in the 1920s, similar policies were followed and that, at the end of the 1920s, the debt was larger and we had a decade of unemployment and poverty. After the second world war precisely the opposite policy was adopted, and we had rapid growth, full employment and the debt came down.
Charter for Budget Responsibility — House of Commons, 2015-01-13
Topic: Macroeconomics
Edward Michael Balls (Labour, Centre-left): I am sure the former Chancellor knows that decisions on the trend rate of growth in previous Parliaments were not made by the Treasury; they were audited by the National Audit Office. They are now a matter for the OBR, not for the Treasury, but he agrees with me that that is what we should do.
Charter for Budget Responsibility — House of Commons, 2015-01-13
Topic: Macroeconomics
Geoffrey Robinson (Labour, Centre-left): It is always a great pleasure to follow the former Chancellor, the right hon. and learned Member for Rushcliffe (Mr Clarke), and to see him so loyally supporting the present Chancellor. He does so against all the evidence, because I cannot think of a single target of any significance—apart from on unemployment, which we will come to in a moment—that this Government have achieved from what they set out to do in 2010. I think the shadow Chancellor wanted to set this proposal up—
Charter for Budget Responsibility — House of Commons, 2015-01-13
Topic: Macroeconomics
Geoffrey Robinson (Labour, Centre-left): I have told the hon. Gentleman exactly why: "This is a political gimmick of the most transparent kind" The Chancellor wants us to fall for his political gimmick. We are voting for it because we are not going to fall into the silly trap that he has tried to lay for us. It is pathetic. He could do much better and has done in the past. Today, he has done very badly and been caught out, and he should regret it There is a serious point, to which the right hon. and learned Gentleman the former Chancellor alluded when he talked about the underlying rate of growth of the economy. That has been with us for as long as I have been in the House, and indeed way before, when I was a researcher with the Labour party back in the 1960s. [Interruption.] We are not going there; the Chancellor can relax. The whole ill-fated national plan was based on the idea of upping the underlying rate of growth—the productive rate of growth—of the economy. That is still with us, even now, and this Chancellor has done nothing, but nothing, about it. That is what we are debating today: his failure as Chancellor, not that of any past failure of any previous Government. If he wants to go back, let us go back to his own Prime Minister and the black Friday disaster on which his own Prime Minister advised For us, this is about the future. We are fighting the next election and we will fight it on our plans. Why will the Chancellor not have them costed by the OBR? We do not need him to cost them at the Treasury. We have an independent body, which we set up and we supported, as we support the charter motion today. Why will the Chancellor not have our plans vetted? Why is he scared? It is because he knows they will be proven to be well costed, as the Institute for Fiscal Studies has already said.
Charter for Budget Responsibility — House of Commons, 2015-01-13
Topic: Macroeconomics
Barry Strachan Gardiner (Labour, Centre-left): The Chancellor said that he was not going to balance the budget on the backs of the poor. Yet since 2010 there have been 24 tax rises that have meant that ordinary families are paying £450 a year more in VAT. Households will be £974 a year worse off by the time of the next general election because of tax and benefit changes alone since 2010. The Chancellor cut the 50p rate to 45p, which gave an extra £3 billion not to the poorest but to the richest 1% in the country, meaning that someone earning £1 million will receive a tax cut of over £42,000 a year. The Chancellor has opposed a mansion tax to improve the NHS, but he has hit the poorest and the most vulnerable in our society with the bedroom tax. Not on the backs of the poor? I think not. All in this together? I think not In fact, the Conservatives have pencilled in spending cuts to public services in the next period that are 30% greater than those they have already introduced. The hon. Member for Wolverhampton South West (Paul Uppal) said that Labour wanted to take the country back to the 1930s. He should check the figures. In fact, it is his own party that will see the level of public spending as a proportion of GDP reduced precisely to the level it last was during the great depression, the way out of which was not to cut more taxes but to make sure that the economy grew. The Government have now announced £7 billion of unfunded tax cuts. We would like all our parties’ manifesto commitments to be scrutinised by the Office for Budget Responsibility, but the Chancellor has set his face against that. That is hardly surprising, because his failure is significant.