Economy: Spring Statement — House of Lords, 2018-03-15
Topic: Macroeconomics
Bryan Davies (Labour, Centre-left): My Lords, this has been an interesting debate, distinguished by the contribution of the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Lincoln, in his maiden speech, and we look forward to him continuing to contribute to our deliberations often in the future. My only link with Lincoln was when I was concerned 20-odd years ago with my party’s higher education policy. I must say that you cannot go to Lincoln without seeing the majestic cathedral and think that it is the only structure worth concentrating on. What was being proposed in Lincoln then was the university, in what seemed to be a green and muddy flatland down by the river. Lincoln University developed with extraordinary rapidity. It is an enormous tribute to the people of Lincoln that they developed their university to real status in a very short time. I, for one, visit the cathedral when I am there, but I always go to have a look at the university as well The Minister introduced the debate in his usual equable and optimistic manner. He treated the House in his opening speech to a description of the economy, but I am afraid that it reinforced the theme of several speeches in this debate: the Government seem to be guilty of the most extraordinary complacency. He suggested that the recovery is in fact at hand. Let me say that, if it is, it will still be the longest recovery from recession since the 1920s—so not a great deal to boast about there. Also, as several noble Lords who contributed to the debate indicated, we are by no means sure that the problem is over. After all, we all remember that the previous Chancellor expected to create a surplus by 2020. We do not get too much talk now from the Government about surpluses, as far as the financial position is concerned. Further, as has been emphasised by so many speakers, growth last year still kept us firmly in the relegation zone, at the bottom of the G7. Last year was the lowest since 2012, and the OBR has of course forecast that, in 2020 and 2022, the situation will deteriorate. So that is some recovery for the economy The Government have missed every target that they have set themselves in the last decade for the rate of reduction of the deficit and we are all aware of the consequences of that. Behind it all, of course, this gave the justification for austerity. The consequences of austerity have been disastrous for our people and also for our economy. The austerity programme, forged over these last seven or eight years, has only begun the question of clearing the deficit, but it has created so many problems in our public services. In a real sense, our society has seen the transfer of the problems of indebtedness from the Exchequer to our public services. The difference between the two is that the impact of public services upon ordinary people is so much greater The National Health Service will end this year £16 billion in deficit. There are 100,000 jobs in the National Health Service that are not being filled because there are not the resources to do so. The crime rate increases, yet the number of police officers is cut by 21,500. The number of firefighters has been cut by 850. Our Prison and Probation Service is on the brink of crisis. I should think that there is not a single Member of this House who does not shudder when we learn of what is going wrong in our prisons. The mark of a civilised society is surely that it ensures that prisons are a place for the rehabilitation of people, rather than a deterioration in their perspective on society In education, we have had the first cut of the per capita payment to schools ever. That is a very drastic thing. It makes the position almost unmanageable for the heads and other figures in schools. In addition to that, of course, we understand that, under social welfare, there are now proposals to end free dinners for tens of thousands of children from poor families. Surely at times the Government must wonder whether they look vindictive towards poor families who are dependent on society. These poor families are often wage earners who, in the jobs they do, do not earn enough—or earn regularly enough—to sustain the family budget. Of course, local government is in crisis. Most of us know our own local authorities quite well, but I have to say, my ears were pinned back when the television announced that the local authority causing the greatest upset to the Government is Northamptonshire, followed not long afterwards by Surrey—authorities we automatically assume have a massive Conservative influence and a great commitment to loyalty to the Government. Yet Northamptonshire is saying, "We cannot continue with the resources made available to us by the Government" It is quite clear that this crisis is due to spread. We have not had the full range of social security cuts yet. Universal credit has already cut social security provision significantly but we all know that there is a great deal more to come in terms of the impoverishment of certain sections of our community. As far as adult social care is concerned, can anybody be unaware of the problems facing the elderly as they near the time when they cannot look after themselves? People have no obvious recourse to any support that will ensure that their last days are passed in some degree of comfort I want to say something about housing. I know the Minister has said, "We don’t have to look at the Spring Statement on housing because the Government will move smoothly into action shortly afterwards". My heavens, the Government have a lot of movement to make. We have rising homelessness in our society. We are one of the richest countries in Europe. One of the richest cities in Europe—London—has seen significant increases in people sleeping rough. Of course, what has been brought out in this debate so strongly is that living standards have fallen over this period. Real wages have fallen by 0.5% since the end of 2017 and are lower now than in 2010 Can anyone conceive of a Government being buoyant about their position when the broad mass of the wage-earning public are seeing their standards of living fall? Surely the Government have to respond to these very acute problems. I appreciated the speech of the noble Lord, Lord Mawson, when he talked about the digital economy and the problems facing small entrepreneurs. There is no doubt that we need to see small entrepreneurs flourish. They are an extremely important part of the economy. However, if the challenges being presented to them are not just those of developing their business but challenges posed by the Exchequer and Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs, we have worries ahead of us I am grateful to my noble friend Lord Young for his comments on training and apprentices. He did not bring in the broader issue that an important part of training—and of the relationship between the education system and the training provided by employers—is the role of further education. But this Government have slashed the provision of further education in this country and are now apparently reliant on employers to provide the necessary breadth and skills to the apprenticeships they develop I have no doubt that the Minister will meet many of the challenges presented by this debate and that he will do his very best to give a response to all the issues raised. I have left out Brexit; I am not at all sure that we can at this stage address to the Government the challenge on the position of Brexit in circumstances where so much is so totally uncertain. We all know the hesitations of the OBR in producing forecasts on Brexit. However, the Minister has to face the facts: no one in this debate today who expressed a position on Brexit has said, "Let’s go and make this situation more difficult".