Armed Forces: Capability — House of Lords, 2017-01-12
Topic: International Affairs
Alan William John West (Labour, Centre-left): My Lords, Russia, a superpower in nuclear terms, is massively investing in military capability, yet with the financial clout of Italy. Its economy is on a war footing: something has to give. There are its actions in Crimea and Ukraine, and now threats to the Baltic states and cyberattacks in Estonia, France, Turkey, Ukraine and the USA. There is aggressive intrusion into NATO air space and near misses. Russian nuclear submarines are threatening our SSBNs. Why is Russia doing all this? Putin is a revisionist, believes in spheres of influence and understands hard power. His loose talk of the use of nuclear weapons is a particular concern. We must strain every sinew to understand him and keep open a dialogue There is instability in the Middle East. It is difficult to identify a country that is not in turmoil—Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Libya—and countries such as Jordan, Turkey, Lebanon and Egypt are under severe strain. The flexing of muscles by Iran and Turkey, as regional powers; the Sunni/Shia divide; Russia’s recent success as a key power broker—where will this all go The threat of terrorism, grown as a result of events in the Middle East, is not at present existential, but should terrorists ever get hold of improvised nuclear devices or a lethal virus, all that changes. Afghanistan is still at risk of collapse. Stability in nuclear-armed Pakistan is still a cause for concern. In Korea, will the US allow Kim Jong-un to develop a functioning ballistic nuclear-tipped missile able to strike the US? I doubt it very much. What then China is threatening freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, there is the Senkaku Islands stand-off with Japan and the re-emergence of the Taiwan issue. That is all made more worrying by the stalling of China’s economy. As the largest European investor in that region, with responsibility for global shipping, can we ignore it Then there is cyber. The growing reliance of our society and military on the internet entails lots of vulnerabilities that were not foreseen. The Russian takedown of a French television station, had it been a bomb, would have been an act of war, but nations do not know how to respond as there are no international agreements. All I would say is that some rather naive politicians in the Treasury think this means that we can save money on defence; it actually means that we will have to spend more In the face of these threats—and there are others—what have the Government done? They have shown staggering complacency and self-delusion, when it is quite clear to experts and lay men that defence needs more resources. When in coalition, they reduced our military capability by 30%, and our forces remain underfunded. There is minimal new money. It is in theory being produced by efficiencies. The HCDC has pointed out the creative accounting in the 2% of GDP spent on defence, the figure that the Government gave. Spending on pensions does not win wars, and the 2% of GDP is not the target but the very minimum that any NATO nation should spend. Our nation should spend more Having robust defence forces makes a war involving our nation less likely. If a small conflagration in a distant part of the world developed into a war that threatened our national survival, the best welfare provision, National Health Service, education and foreign aid programmes in the world would be as nothing. Preventing war, and defending our nation and people if it happens, are more important than any other government spending priorities. If Ministers get defence wrong, the nation will never forgive them. The costs in blood and treasure are enormous. The Government have a choice of whether we spend what is required to ensure the safety of our nation, dependencies and people or not. At present, I believe they are getting the choice wrong The US military and, to a lesser extent, ours, have together ensured that there has been no world war for more than 70 years. The US now expects us and others to step up; it is right that we do so. It is no use the Government pretending otherwise. There is not enough money in defence. In particular, notwithstanding the Defence Secretary calling this the year of the Navy, the Navy has too few ships to do what the nation expects. Our great nation has effectively only 11 escorts fully capable of operations, which is a national disgrace. Delays in ordering the Type 26 frigate have led to the ordering of extra, highly overpriced offshore patrol vessels to fill the Clyde yard with work, because there is an agreement that we will subsidise the yard whether ships are being made at all or not However, I congratulate the Government on their commitment to the deterrent successor programme, but I and many others believe that the capital cost of the programme should be met from the central contingency fund. Does the noble Earl agree The really good news in defence is the new aircraft carriers, welcomed and eagerly awaited by the US and our other allies. The Government must purchase enough Sea Lightnings to have the squadrons on board. I was very surprised to see articles in the papers recently about mothballing the second carrier and the date for the "Queen Elizabeth" slipping. I end by asking the noble Earl to confirm that the "Prince of Wales" will be completed and operated concurrently with the "Queen Elizabeth", and that HMS "Queen Elizabeth", will sail in March for sea trials and enter Portsmouth for the first time before the summer, as previously stated by the Defence Secretary?