Brexit: Parliamentary Approval of the Outcome of Negotiations with the European Union — House of Lords, 2019-01-28
Topic: International Affairs
Menzies Campbell (Liberal Democrats, Centre to centre-left): My Lords, it is a pleasure to follow the noble Baroness who, as ever, produces an innovative approach to problems that to others seem impossible to resolve. To the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, let me just say: do not be concerned about attitudes towards marriage—MacDonalds have been refusing to marry Campbells for nearly 300 years It was clear from the noble Baroness the Leader of the House that we are to some extent hampered by the fact that we do not know which amendments will be selected, and which will be successful. In that of course we are in good company, because the Prime Minister finds herself in exactly the same position. In parentheses, I will say that, while it is for the House of Commons to resolve how it conducts its own business, it does seem that profound constitutional change is taking place on the hoof in the House of Commons. I hope that someone is giving at least some consideration to the principle of unintended consequences If I had ever had any doubts about the proper way for us to deal with the issue of membership of the European Union, they have more than been removed by the conduct of the negotiations and the terms of their outcome—what I might describe as the Prime Minister’s deal. After the rejection of that deal in the House of Commons, the Prime Minister set out to talk to other political parties. It does not appear that anything new was discussed on these occasions. She talked about the enshrining of employment rights—a promise that had previously been made, so it was simply being said for a second or even third time—and promised to go back to Brussels and try to negotiate. Being as generous as one can be, it does not seem that Brussels has much of a negotiating attitude, particularly on the backstop. To coin a phrase that Mrs May has often used, it rather looks as if nothing has changed There is something else that has not changed: the opinion of the Attorney-General, to which reference has been made on a number of occasions in the past couple of weeks. I will read from paragraph 2 of the additional letter he wrote, dated 14 January 2019, after the Government had received a joint response from the Presidents of the Council and the Commission: "I agree that in the light of this response, the Council’s conclusions of 13 December 2018 would have legal force in international law"— he does not stop there, but goes on to say— "and thus be relevant and cognisable in the interpretation of the Withdrawal Agreement, and in particular the Northern Ireland Protocol, albeit they do not alter the fundamental meanings of its provisions as I advised them to be on 13 November 2018" In truth, the empress of Downing Street has no clothes. She can expect no shelter from her Cabinet, none from her Government, none from her party and none from Parliament—so we have to read her mind as best we can. I understand her to believe that this deal is the best that can be obtained and that, whatever the consequences of leaving the European Union, even if there is no deal, we must leave because the decision in the referendum is inviolate If the consequences of that decision in economic, social or political terms are as bad as some have predicted, or if the promises that were made at the outset are not kept, do not imagine for a moment that the British public will congratulate us on keeping faith with the referendum decision. They will blame those who took us out for the consequences and those who unsuccessfully resisted for not being effective enough. Gone now are the Panglossian predictions—although if you drive around in the south of England you will find them repeated on billboards just to remind people of how different were the predictions from what has been produced in the Prime Minister’s proposals The Prime Minister has an admirable strength of determination, but I respectfully suggest that it has become her weakness. That is particularly so in her refusal to rule out leaving with no deal. I do not entirely follow the reference to the doctrine of nuclear deterrence that the noble and learned Lord, Lord Brown, asked us to consider; I shall consider it at a little more length. I will, however, say that nuclear weapons are rarely used out of negligence or a failure to conduct oneself in an otherwise perfectly reasonable manner. The truth is that the Prime Minister’s position is a gamble. It is a gamble born of stubbornness, and it is one which produces quite extraordinary precautions: stockpiling of food; stockpiling of medicines; off-the-shelf ferry companies; motorway car parks; and even, as my noble friend Lord Newby said at the outset, the possible imposition of martial law—no one discussed that during the referendum campaign Meanwhile, as has been said, others are taking precautions: the motor industry, even the vacuum cleaner industry and—would you believe it?—P&O. The flagship of the British Empire is now registering its ships to fly under the flag of Cyprus. Who would have believed that? The truth is that, if there is a disorderly withdrawal, be in no doubt that it will severely damage relations with the European Union; if there is a disorderly withdrawal, countries waiting in the wings will think themselves able to drive even harder bargains when it comes to trade deals. On my part, there is no ambiguity: I firmly believe that leaving the European Union is wholly against the interests of the citizens of the United Kingdom, just as I believe equally sincerely that for Scotland to leave the United Kingdom would be against the interests of the citizens of that part of the United Kingdom. Of course there are risks involved in another referendum—but if, as some have argued already, it is the only thing to do, are we are really going to bow to the threats from the mob? We enjoy a great privilege in this House and in the place further down the Corridor, but we also have a great responsibility. If we believe that the only way in which to resolve these difficulties is to test once again the opinion of the public, we should not shrink from doing so I again ask a question to which no one has yet tried to offer me an answer: if the Prime Minister’s deal had been on the ballot paper, and voters had appreciated the disorder, delay and damage that withdrawal has caused until now, how many would have voted for it? If the majority vote to leave in a second referendum, then I accept that leave we must. I will not change my mind about the extent to which the interests of this country are best served by being in the European Union, but I will accept a decision that is based on informed consent.