Coronavirus Bill — House of Lords, 2020-03-24
Topic: Health
Andrew Robathan (Conservative, Centre-right): Noble Lords will be familiar with the profound words of John Donne written in 1624. That was a time of recurrent outbreaks of bubonic plague, so he knew about death and the plague: "No man is an island entire of itself … any man’s death diminishes me … And therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for thee." Each death from Covid-19 is a tragedy for the individual, obviously, and for every bereaved family, and we should mourn every death because anyone’s death diminishes us I attended two very informative briefings by the Chief Medical Officer, Chris Whitty, earlier this month. He was calm, balanced and logical. He inspired confidence. I understood—I think—the concept of herd immunity. I understood why it would be counterproductive to close schools and why it was unnecessary to ban large gatherings. I understood the concept of flattening the curve to prevent the NHS being swamped. All that seemed pragmatic and sensible The weekend before last, everything changed after an Imperial College study and modelling exercise estimated that there would be 250,000 deaths unless we changed tack and policy. A quarter of a million deaths is a very large number. I also understand the international situation, where other countries are taking more extreme measures that, to a certain extent, put the Government under pressure. These deaths are largely among the elderly, the frail and the sickly—people with what I have learned to call "underlying health conditions". Each one is an individual to be valued. I also understand that it is likely that 80% of us sitting here today will contract the virus, and I have a mere 16 months before I reach my allotted span, according to the psalmist in Psalm 90, of "threescore years and ten"—memento mori However, it is not callous or uncaring to point out that last year 623,000 people died in the UK. On average, every day 1,700 people die. As of this morning, there have been 335 deaths from the coronavirus outbreak. Therefore, this is not the Black Death, the great plague of 1665, the Spanish flu nor war. It is a very real health crisis which should be taken very seriously indeed, but I suggest that it should also be kept in proportion. Referring to war, which people have been doing, the Blitz spirit was best summed up by the slogan "We never closed" The Chief Medical Officer thinks that there are many thousands more cases than the 6,650 confirmed today. My right honourable friend Jeremy Hunt, former Health Secretary and chairman of the Health Select Committee in the Commons, yesterday suggested that there were 300,000-odd cases in the UK. My untutored and entirely anecdotal guess is that there are very many more. For instance, my son at Sandhurst has had it; my daughter, 50 miles away in Oxford, has it, as has my niece in Gloucestershire; three out of 12 jurors in the trial of the alleged murderers of PC Harper have self-isolated; and there are lots more cases besides, of which we all know. They have not been tested but it seems likely that the number of additional cases is huge. Therefore, what are the implications for herd immunity and what is the likely percentage of deaths Now we have in this Bill draconian and oppressive restrictions. I understand the impossible position of the Government, but how long will this lockdown be imposed? The Imperial College study, which so worried the Government, says that "this type of intensive intervention package … will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more)—given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed." It goes on to say that "experience in China and now South Korea show that suppression is possible in the short term", but "it remains to be seen whether it is possible long-term" I am not an epidemiologist, nor a doctor, but I have questions on government policy. Do the Government have any real idea of the numbers infected and, now, possibly developing immunity? I understand that a test for antibodies is being developed. How long will the restrictions be in force? Three weeks was mentioned yesterday. Will it be 18 months or more? Will a lockdown be effective? Will it work? And will the numbers rebound if the lockdown is lifted? Therefore, will it really achieve its stated aim of preventing transmission and saving lives in the long term Will these measures lead to a recession or, much worse, to another global depression? We should remember the lives destroyed in the desolation of the 1930s and, indeed, the rise of extremist parties. Will younger generations—our children, with their future in front of them and not already behind them, as in my case—think that the impact on the long-term good and prosperity of the country, on their education and on their standard of living and quality of life is worth it, especially if these oppressive restrictions do not beat the virus and people continue to die? These are rhetorical questions, because nobody knows. Only time will tell—perhaps six months, a year, or many years Perhaps this will be seen as a contrary view. I wish my noble friend the Minister and the Government well in this hugely difficult crisis but certainly do not like this legislation. The restrictions and closing down of our country are disproportionate. I will not oppose this, but giving these powers to the state is unprecedented outside wartime; they are draconian in so many aspects and based on a premise that may turn out to be incorrect. In my 68 years, I have learned that it is very rarely the case that the gentleman in Whitehall knows best.