Inflation — House of Lords, 2019-07-01
Topic: Macroeconomics
David Edward Lea (Labour, Centre-left): My Lords, I begin by referring to a remark made by the noble Lord, Lord Macpherson, about the confidence that people must have in statistics. I was on the Retail Prices Index Advisory Committee for many years when I was at the TUC. I draw attention to the fact that a very strange omission in the report, which the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, did not mention, is that what most people associate with the RPI is not gilts or housing costs but wage negotiations. The bedrock of all wage negotiations is the RPI. No one anywhere would think that the yardstick in wage negotiations could ignore the RPI Before we scrap the RPI—some people want to do that, so let us make no bones about it—we have to relate that to the dictum about confidence. If anybody in this country ever starts to think that somebody has a vested interest in tinkering around with the RPI, that will be a very bad day indeed. For that reason and others, I am glad that the committee has come down on the side of reforming the RPI but not abandoning it That being the case, I would like to put a question to the Minister. Is he aware that, in recent months, there has been a concerted campaign from somewhere in the newspapers, where any reference by economic correspondents to the RPI is preceded by the adjective "discredited"? If you pick up any dozen references in the last six months to the RPI or any consideration of it in the newspapers, you will find the word "discredited". Where is this adjective coming from? It must be coming, I suspect, from the Treasury or the Bank of England. I would like to hear any other suggestions about where it is coming from, but these organisations have regular confidential conversations with economic correspondents —I do not think that the ONS does in quite the same way For the first time, we are in danger of making this issue into a bit of a political football. It has never been a political football, and I hope that it never will be. I do not even think that Boris Johnson would have it in mind to remove Brussels sprouts from the index. There has never been any political interference with it. The advisory committee has always tried to reach an agreed conclusion, although I think that some years ago there was a vote about something to do with housing costs. That leads to my second point, which is that there is no perfect solution. I thought that the noble Lord, Lord Darling, let his rhetoric run away with him in implying that somehow a clear overall message was coming out of this and that something ought to be done about it. It is a very delicate balance indeed On housing costs, I think that the report says almost in these terms, "Well, we don’t much like housing costs being in the index, but on balance we can’t have an index without them in it". If that was not in this committee’s report, it was in that of another weighty committee not so long ago. Housing costs are inherently very difficult because, unlike Brussels sprouts, they are ultimately a question of the valuation of land. We all know that economics textbooks refer to the factors of production being land, labour and capital, but in practice, of course, land is not a factor of production—as somebody once quipped, "They don’t make much of that any more". The house price question has been a main driver of the change in economic activity in many parts of the country—exacerbated, I would say, by the component of RPI that we cannot take away—and there is obviously a difference between the received estate agent index affecting London and that affecting Aberdeen or Aberystwyth. So there are a number of delicate dilemmas I recognise that the committee does not conclude with a broad rhetorical flourish; it concludes with some careful recommendations—not throwing javelins at random in the direction of somebody at fault who has not been paying attention. That is why Mr Boris Johnson’s namesake himself adjusted his position to look at this thing in the round. Broadly speaking, I think that this is a good report, but there are arguments on both sides of many of the questions under scrutiny Yes, it is true that the RPI is generally a bit above the CPI, but that is factored into much of industrial life. Saying that there should be just one index is a dangerous road to go down when all the academic literature at least pays lip service to the notion that, if you are looking at macro policy or international monetary policy, you probably need something constructed along the lines of the CPI. But given that historically, ever since the Ernest Bevin era when it was created as a cost of living index, the retail prices index has had confidence, we should stay with it. On getting a solution to the clothing dilemma, I do not totally understand it, but clearly it is correct to have that recommendation The people at the receiving end of statistics such as the RPI might expect the House of Lords’ Economic Affairs Committee to include some people who have been a bit more involved in wage negotiation; there are no such people in sight on the committee and this is relevant to the point we were debating half an hour ago. This is a matter for the man and woman on the street; it has become a bit of a debate between the economic academics, the Treasury and the Bank of England I finish with the theme on which I began, which is that it is a pity that there should be this relentless and democratically not very sensible campaign on the part of certain bodies—I suspect that it can only be the Treasury and the Bank of England—who keep putting the word "discredited" before "RPI". Given the state of Britain now, that is not a very sensible thing to do. Although the RPI is not perfect—and no index is—many of the criticisms made of it reflect a misunderstanding of its purpose and are implicitly based on the erroneous assumption that it should follow in full the economic principles suitable for indices such as the CPI and CPIH I am sorry for making a rather long statement, but one cannot say that people should accept in their wage packets a difference of minus £350 a year by shifting from the RPI to the CPI. That is a street level understanding of the question, not a highly academic one.