Spring Statement — House of Lords, 2019-03-20
Topic: Macroeconomics
Michael Bates (Conservative, Centre-right): My Lords, the Chancellor gave his Spring Statement last week which showed that the economy remains robust, despite lingering uncertainty around Brexit. It has grown for nine consecutive years, creating 3.5 million new jobs since 2010, and is now delivering the fastest wage growth in over a decade The Office for Budget Responsibility expects growth to continue at a rate of 1.2% this year, 1.4% in 2020 and 1.6% for each of the following three years. It also expects to see 600,000 more new jobs and wage growth of 3% or higher—that is, above inflation—in every year of the forecast There was positive news on public finances as well. Borrowing this year will be just 1.1% of GDP, £3 billion lower than forecast at the Autumn Budget. This fall will continue, from £29.3 billion in 2019-20 to £13.5 billion in 2023-24, the lowest level in 22 years This means that we remain on track to meet our fiscal targets early, with the cyclically adjusted deficit at 1.3% next year, falling to just 0.5% by 2023-24, and with debt lower in every year than forecast at the Budget, falling to 82.2% of GDP next year, then 79%, 74.9%, 74% and, finally, 73% in 2023-24 It increases headroom against our fiscal mandate in 2020-21 from £15.4 billion at the Autumn Budget to £26.6 billion today We have rebuilt the public finances since the shock of the financial crash and are now in a strong enough position to bring austerity to an end. Last year, the Prime Minister announced an additional £34 billion of funding per year for the NHS—the single largest cash commitment ever made by a peacetime British Government. In the most recent Budget, the Chancellor set out an indicative five-year path of 1.2% per annum real terms increases in day-to-day spending on our public services Later this year, the Chancellor will launch a three-year spending review before the Summer Recess to be concluded alongside the autumn Budget. It will set departmental budgets to reflect the public’s biggest priorities, such as schools, police and the environment, while maximising value for taxpayers’ money with discipline and a focus on high-quality outcomes. If we leave the EU with a deal, and secure an orderly transition to a future economic partnership, the Government will be able to reduce the level of fiscal headroom needed for no-deal planning, giving us real choices in the spending review Before then, however, some pressing challenges needed addressing. First, in response to head teachers’ rising concern that some girls are missing school due to an inability to afford sanitary products, the Chancellor announced the provision of free sanitary products in secondary schools and colleges in England to be rolled out during the next school year. Secondly, he announced a £100 million fund to tackle the recent surge in knife crime. It is a tragedy that, for too many, this money will arrive too late, but it will go some way towards meeting the challenges ahead Ahead of the spending review, the Home Secretary will work with the police to consider how best to prioritise resources, including newly funded manpower to ensure a lasting solution. Alongside support for public services, the Government have made sure to invest in infrastructure, skills and technology—the fundamentals that boost productivity and living standards. To supplement the largest ever investment in England’s strategic roads, the biggest rail investment programme since Victorian times, and a strategy for delivering a nationwide full-fibre network by 2023, the Chancellor made a series of further pledges. These included an announcement of up to £260 million for the borderlands growth deal But raising our productivity is not just about investing in physical capital; it is about investing in people too. To help small businesses take on more apprentices, the Government are accelerating the reforms announced in the Budget of 2018, bringing forward a £700 million package this April. We want to drive productivity across the income distribution, with the ultimate objective of ending low pay in the UK. So we have asked Professor Arin Dube, a world-leading expert in the field, to undertake a review of the latest international evidence on minimum wages to inform future national living wage policy after 2020. This study will support our extensive discussions with employer organisations and trade unions over the coming months As we move forward, we are keeping the interests of businesses as a high priority, and that means giving them access to the best talent, including from overseas. From June, we will begin to abolish the need for paper landing cards at UK points of entry for citizens from the United States, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Japan, Singapore and South Korea. They will be able to use e-gates at our airports and Eurostar terminals, alongside the EEA nationals who can already do so. From this autumn, we will completely exempt PhD-level roles from visa caps—a signal to the best and brightest across the world that we want them and welcome their expertise in the United Kingdom. Having the best people in Britain will help us remain at the forefront of the technology revolution that is transforming the global economy. To maintain our edge, the Chancellor announced a £79 million investment in a new super-computer to be hosted at Edinburgh University. We are also allocating £45 million of NPIF funding to the European Bioinformatics Institute and investing £81 million in a new extreme photonics centre in Oxfordshire Innovation requires careful handling by Governments, and a fair and forgiving regulatory environment. Nowhere is this more important than in the digital world, where we need to ensure a level playing field that fosters innovation, and where the giants pay their fair share. To this end, the Chancellor asked Professor Jason Furman, Barack Obama’s former chief economist, to review competition in the digital market. His report was published last week, and the Chancellor has already taken the first step in response, asking the Competition and Markets Authority to undertake a market study of the digital advertising market as soon as possible We must adapt to the challenges of a changing world, and that extends to the environment as much as the economy. Despite what some say, it is not the case that these are competing concerns. The UK’s 1,500 pollinator species, for example, deliver an estimated £680 million of annual value to the economy, making an obvious case for protecting the diversity of the natural world. Therefore, following consultation, the Government will use the forthcoming environment Bill to mandate biodiversity net gain for development in England, ensuring that the delivery of much-needed infrastructure is not at the expense of the birds and the bees, which help fill the air with song, and our plates with food Of course, climate change is our biggest environmental concern. The UK is already leading the world in this regard, reducing the carbon intensity of our economy faster than any other G20 country. Last week, the Chancellor set out plans that demonstrate a commitment to maintain this progress. First, we will publish a call for evidence on whether all passenger carriers should be required to offer genuinely additional carbon offsets, so that customers who want zero-carbon travel have that option. Secondly, we will help small businesses cut their carbon emissions and their energy bills, with a call for evidence on the business energy efficiency scheme. Thirdly, we will publish proposals to require an increased proportion of green gas in the grid, to advance decarbonisation of our mains gas supply. Finally, we will introduce a future homes standard, mandating the end of fossil-fuel heating systems in all new houses from 2025 There will be many new houses. One of the Chancellor’s biggest motivations is to restore the dream of home ownership to millions of younger people. He has set out a five-year, £44 billion housing programme to raise annual housing supply to 300,000 by the mid-2020s. This Government have also abolished stamp duty for thousands of first-time buyers and introduced planning reform to release land in areas where the pressure is greatest. The Chancellor built on this further last week, announcing a new £3 billion affordable homes guarantee scheme to support delivery of around 30,000 affordable homes. In addition, he announced £717 million from the Housing Infrastructure Fund to unlock up to 37,000 new homes on sites in west London, Cheshire, Didcot and Cambridge, near some of the best jobs in the country It all means that we are stiffening the sinews of this economy. We are transforming our infrastructure, investing in innovation, and sharpening our skills. These are fundamentals of economic and personal growth, and it means that our grasp of the opportunities that lie ahead of us can be better met and reached. I commend this Statement to the House.