Budget Resolutions — House of Commons, 2021-10-27
Topic: Macroeconomics
Nigel John Mills (Conservative, Centre-right): It is a pleasure to follow the hon. Member for Feltham and Heston (Seema Malhotra), although I have to say that I did not expect more from the Budget—I came here today fearing the worst. I expected to see some pretty dire public finances, and to be fair we have seen some pretty dire numbers. The deficits for the last financial year and the current year total £500 billion, and we will still be running a deficit this year of about £130 billion However, we have managed to forecast to balance the books in the financial year after next. I could not possibly have expected that we could go from the economic storm that we suffered back to a balanced situation less than a couple of years after the end of the pandemic. That is a tremendous achievement and it shows how successful the Government’s measures to save the economy have been over the past 18 months that we can even forecast that position. Even if that forecast is a bit optimistic, I was expecting years and years of deficit, and was wondering how we were going to fill it with spending cuts and tax rises. It looks, thankfully, like we will not need them We are forecasting the end of the deficit the year after next despite the Budget increasing the deficit by £25 billion. The measures we see are tax rises of about £12.5 billion and spending increases forecast to be about £38 billion. The spending envelope is actually being relaxed while we are balancing the books—quite a tremendous achievement. It probably shows, however, how key some of the sensitivities are in the forecast that we need to deliver the economic growth to drive tax receipts, otherwise those numbers just will not work We need to focus on what more we can do to increase the long-term trend in the rate of growth. What we are seeing by the end of the forecast period, well under 2%, will not be sufficient to deliver the public finances that we all want to see. That is why we need to make sure that the very welcome measures to increase investment, improve skills and boost productivity are driven through and made to work There was much good news in the Budget. Most of it was trailed well in advance. More money for the NHS will be hugely welcomed across Amber Valley. The rise in the living wage will be welcomed by people earning low wages. The end of the public sector pay freeze is the right thing to do. We had a year of it. I understand why we needed it in the middle of the crisis, but we cannot leave people worse off in real terms given the rise in bills I especially welcome the reduction in the universal credit taper. If I could just gently tick the Government off, that is not a tax rise. It is not a marginal tax rate. If we really wanted to say what the marginal tax rate was and we included that, we would have to add the 55% new taper rate, the 13% national insurance rate and the 20% income tax rate for those earning over £12,000, leaving an 88% marginal tax rate. I suspect that is not what the Government are trying to tell us, and nobody really believes that people can move into work from benefits and not have any reduction in their benefits. It is quite right that there is a reduction, so I am not sure that it was helpful to present this as a tax cut. It is a welcome reduction in the taper rate, which will ensure that work pays, but we should be careful in the presentation of that I have been one of those arguing to keep the £20-a-week uplift. We would have had a much better system if the benefit had started in the right place and then tapered off at the right rate. It is clearly welcome that the Chancellor has found £2 billion a year to improve the taper rate and make sure that we can be certain for everyone that work will always pay and that they will be materially better off if they take work, get more hours and get higher pay. That is hugely welcome I also welcome the fact that the Government, in our post-Brexit world, are starting to tweak the tax system so that we can use our post-Brexit freedoms. The reduction in the draft beer duty rate is sensible. On the domestic air passenger duty rate, it is absolutely right that people should be able to fly within their own country at a lower tax rate than when they fly overseas. That is what used to be the case until 20 years ago, when we were forced to change I even welcome small measures such as the plan to take away the right to offset losses incurred across Europe from UK corporation tax. That is a sensible measure. There is no reason why a loss that someone incurs overseas should reduce their UK tax bill. There are other measures that we had to introduce to be compliant with EU rules, which we could now reform. We had to take away a collection of tax avoidance measures because they did not comply with EU rules; we can now reinstate them and protect our tax. I urge the Government to continue that trend I welcome the changes to the research and development rules, the increased investment and the tweaks to the R&D tax incentives. It is right that when we give people a tax incentive, that work is done in the UK. Actually, it is more important that the fruits of that research are owned in the UK, that the intellectual property produced is owned and exploited here, and that the research generates jobs and tax revenues here. I urge the Government to introduce the detail behind those changes and to add a rule that says, "If you are going to claim that tax credit, the IP produced needs to be owned in the UK for you to get it." That will be more important in the long run than where the research was carried out. If the Minister wants some clues on how to draft such a measure, he should know that I moved an amendment to that effect about 10 years ago during consideration of the Finance Bill. He can check the history.