UK Convergence Programme — House of Lords, 2017-04-24
Topic: Macroeconomics
Bryan Davies (Labour, Centre-left): My Lords, the Minister made the best fist of a pretty thin case. First, it is somewhat absurd that we are debating and seeking to put through a Motion on the issue of convergence just at the point when the Government have set their sails in the opposite direction, away from any convergence as far as their direct relationship with the European Community is concerned. At least the Minister in the other place, when pressed on this particular obvious sailing point, said, "Well, I don’t really think the issues of convergence affected government policy a great deal". It is quite clear that the Government have had their own agenda for the economy and have pursued it with considerable rigour, at particular cost to sections of our population—and, I might add, to the economy as a whole. But the issue of convergence certainly did not rank particularly highly in that agenda and the Government, I imagine, can therefore begin their approach to the question of Brexit untrammelled with any regrets that no British Government will have to face up to this issue in the future The Government are making much at this stage of economic growth over the last year and a half, with the prediction that it might last a little longer. That is against a background where their record on economic growth was close to catastrophic. They presided over the slowest recovery from a recession in more than 100 years and followed the worst policies for getting the country back on to an even keel. What has this meant? Their target was 2015, which was two years ago. They were meant to hit their target in 2015 but we now have a revision under a new Chancellor, who has slightly more elastic concepts on how rigorous an onslaught should be pursued on the debt position. He is saying that it may be the early 2020s but has not made too great an assurance about that. What would your Lordships say normally to anybody who had promised that they would bend every sinew to producing a position where they got out of debt in five years, and then after seven years said, "We haven’t made it—in fact, we are only half way there and we don’t think we’ll be able to do it for another five years anyway"? It suggests that there is a slight flaw in the Government’s thinking on how well they have done with the economy over the last few years The other dimension of it is quite clear: the absence of growth has reduced significantly the receipts to the Exchequer and made the Government’s onslaught on public expenditure even more savage. The Government boast about the fact that they have been conducting their position on public expenditure with a real sense of fairness. Tell that to the disabled. Tell that to the families where children are entering poverty in numbers that we have not seen for two decades. Tell that to the people who are seeing benefits for those in work cut at the levels which they are by this Government. That is to say nothing about what I hope the Government recognise is a crisis in the health service, or about the problems we have with regard to welfare and in particular with care for the aged. It says nothing about the real problems of so many in our community, who depend upon government handouts not because they are idle and have brought things upon themselves but because they live in a society, and an economy, in which it is difficult for them to earn sufficient to sustain their living standards. Yet the Government are busy eroding any support which they enjoy. Let us turn as well to the question that the Government always emphasise as such a significant achievement: levels of employment. What kind of employment is it? It is no coincidence that when the Minister says that we have made painfully little progress—I am not sure whether she used quite that adverb but she was generous enough to concede that progress on productivity has been limited in recent years—it is a direct reflection of the employment conditions of so many of our people. Far from them being engaged in enterprises alongside employers who are seeking to promote the work, to engage the workers constructively and perhaps even from time to time to listen to them on how work could be done better, we have the exact antithesis. We have people on zero-hours contracts with no commitment to the company at all, apart from the hope that they will be able each week to sustain enough hours in work to keep their living standards What employers have been doing is worse. There are appalling examples. They have been saying to such people, "Sling your hook". That phrase comes from dockers in the 19th century who turned up for work with their hook and if not so many were needed or those who were needed were carefully selected, they rest had to sling their hook, go away and receive no remuneration or sustenance of living standards. It is not surprising that the late 19th-century state had to react to that situation in the face of such discontent. The Government may feel that they are not presiding over a period of such discontent at this time. That may partially be because so many of the people who are in that position have no voice. They have no voice because the very vulnerability of the work they do renders them unable to challenge What does this all mean? It means that the Government are now engaged upon Brexit, which will dominate all political and economic debate for a considerable period ahead. What is conspicuous about Brexit—I hope the Minister may at least own up to this fact—is that the Government had absolutely no plans to cope with Brexit and had not anticipated that the vote might go that way. If they did anticipate it, they are very culpable for leaving us in this position, where it is quite clear that our negotiating position is a good deal weaker than it ought to be. The Government keep on saying that we are out on a deep, wide ocean and that we can greatly increase our trade with others whom we have neglected in the past. I have not noticed the British economy neglecting markets in the past. Our problem is being able to be sufficiently competitive to win them. We are walking out on the largest market of all. Whenever the Government mention the United States, India or China, do they not realise that trade with those countries adds up to only a fraction of that which we enjoy at present under the framework of the European Community? That is the nature of the risk being taken I realise that this is a straightforward Motion today. There is no question of the Opposition not seeing that we make a last gesture towards convergence, which is required of us as long as we are a member of the European Community, which we are at present. Underpinning it all—and this is what this Government have to face up to—is the basic weakness of their economic position. That may not worry Ministers in this House too much because, although they would probably like to continue in office, it is not quite as serious a threat as that to Ministers at the other end who have to retain not just their office but their seat as well. The confidence of Ministers in the other place may be shaken somewhat, and therefore, although I have indicated that the Opposition support this Motion, I offer some warnings as to the future.