Budget Resolutions — House of Commons, 2021-10-27
Topic: Macroeconomics
Kevin Paul Hollinrake (Conservative, Centre-right): It is a pleasure to speak after my hon. Friend the Member for Basildon and Billericay (Mr Baron). I agree with many of his comments, particularly those on the cladding scandal, which I have been involved in considering as a Select Committee member since 14 June 2017. I definitely agree that we need to go further on the issue I very much welcome the Budget, as my hon. Friend did, although not just what is in it. I welcome the optimism with which the Budget was presented, and I welcome the way it was contrasted with the pessimism of the Opposition parties. We are a party that believes in the future of this country and the individuals within it, and we believe that we can make a genuine difference to their lives We must bear it in mind that the Budget is set against a backdrop of the reduction in the size of the economy that began 18 months ago, which was the sharpest contraction in any of our lifetimes. As a consequence of the Government’s interventions, that contraction has been followed by the fastest growth in the economy we have seen in our lifetimes. That has certainly put us back on a par with countries that people said were doing better than us through the crisis, such as Germany. The effects on GDP and on unemployment have produced far better outcomes for us than many people predicted We must put that in context. The huge economic fallout from covid was totally unexpected, although we were ready to deal with the economic fallout caused by leaving the EU. I voted to remain, but never argued that our economy could not succeed outside the EU. There were going to be short-term challenges, as we have seen to some extent, but, rightly, the Government have seen that in moments of crisis there are moments of opportunity. That is exactly the way we should approach this, and the move to a higher wage, higher skilled economy is absolutely right. The key to that is having control over immigration, which we never could have had within the EU Owing to that and owing to the covid crisis—principally because of the covid crisis—we have some real pinch points in our economy right now. There are labour shortages across the economy; this is not just about HGV drivers. Almost every sector I speak to is having labour difficulties, not least in Thirsk and Malton. There are difficulties in some of our pig supply chains and our pig farmers are having real problems in getting the pigs off the farms and into the meat processing plants because there are shortages of some workers, who farmers would normally get from further afield. That is due to Brexit to a certain extent but is mainly down to covid The other big issue that we must confront and which we will be dealing with for some time yet is inflation. Predictions of inflation topping at 4% seem likely, so that will cause some pressure for people, particularly those on low incomes. Nevertheless, both issues—labour shortages and inflation—are short term and they will be resolved in time. The longer-term issues we must deal with involve demographics and the ageing population. That is good news as it means we are living longer, but the ageing population will put huge pressure on the taxpayer. The OBR is not always accurate, but its central prediction is that, owing to the cost of healthcare, social care and pensions, our debt to GDP ratio, which is 100% of GDP, will be 400% by 2060 if we do not change our system of taxation. That is a frightening thought for the Treasury, but it is something the Treasury will have to confront and deal with Rather than throwing lots of money at everything without expecting to raise taxes, or criticising tax increases to pay for our spending, as the Opposition do, the Treasury has taken a sensible, balanced view. It is balancing day-to-day payments and shifting the burden away from taxpayers’ earnings, so that it is subsidised not through the tax system, but through employers paying more to employ people, while people keep more of the money—hence the universal credit taper, which I absolutely welcome. As co-chair of the all-party parliamentary group on poverty, I think it is a far better use of taxpayers’ money to provide a greater incentive to work, rather than simply paying people through other taxpayers’ contributions to their income. That is absolutely the right way forward If we are to head off the prospect of our debt being 400% of our GDP, it is critical that as well as making work pay, we get the economy growing. To do that, we have to make business pay. That has been my life—I started up a business—but there are so many benefits: not just the opportunities for businesspeople, but the fantastic effect on the consumer. The best way to drive down prices and drive up services for consumers is to have more competition. In my experience, having started a small business that we grew into a larger business, the one thing that makes us more competitive is competition. That is the key: a competitive economic environment. That is what we have to try to engender Hon. Members have talked about cutting regulation and making it simpler to establish a business. I support all those things, as long as we put sensible protections in place, but the No. 1 thing that we can do to engender a positive business environment is to have a fair and level playing field. It encourages more entrants; it encourages people with all kinds of business model to start up and scale up. Businesses want a fair and level playing field and simple and stable taxation I welcome what the Chancellor has done on alcohol duties: a simpler, more stable alcohol taxation system is absolutely right. There has been a massive simplification, and I would like to see the same principle applied to one of the biggest barriers to a competitive environment and to a fair and level playing field in our business world today: business rates. Business rates create a massive distortion between physical and online retailers, which is deeply unhelpful The Government have done a lot—I think that they have put about £11.6 billion into easing the burden on lots of business sectors—but that still creates winners and losers. Whenever reliefs, much as I welcome them, are put in place, people will fall on either side. I know that the measures are only short-term, so we need longer-term reform, as many hon. Members have said There seems to be a debate about online sales tax, and the Government seem potentially to be heading down that road. The Opposition say that the digital services tax should be increased sixfold, which I have to say I think is a bonkers idea. It will hit very few retailers, or even hit marketplaces only. When the levy was put in place, Amazon added it straight to the cost of goods; the Opposition’s proposed increase would be added straight to the cost to consumers. It is absolutely wrong to do things in that way, but I welcome at least the efforts to solve the problem I believe that we should scrap business rates completely. The system is completely archaic; I absolutely believe what the Labour party says about that. In my view, we already have an online sales tax: it is called VAT. A simple solution—not easy, but simple—would be to add the £25 billion cost to VAT while lowering the threshold for VAT registration.