Budget Resolutions — House of Commons, 2021-10-27
Topic: Macroeconomics
Robert Edward Jenrick (Conservative, Centre-right): It is a pleasure to follow the hon. Member for Wallasey (Dame Angela Eagle). Unlike her, having recently left the Cabinet, I am grateful to the Treasury for all the effort that it has made to keep us informed of what will be in the Budget—I have never approached a Budget knowing quite as much in advance. However, I would still like to speak about a couple of elements that I think are quite significant One of those elements is the change in the universal credit taper rate, which will help millions of people throughout the country. It underlines a fundamental Conservative objective, which is to make work pay, and I strongly welcome it. I also think it important that we have announced an increase in the national living wage, which, again, will help us to build that higher-wage, higher-productivity economy that is so fundamental to our economic plan I also want to put on the record my praise for the Chancellor, which is contrary to some of the remarks we have heard today. I think that his stewardship of the economy over an extraordinary year and a half is enormously to his credit, and I think that that is reflected in the public confidence that he has built up for himself and for the Government over that period. We are seeing the economy bouncing back better—still scarred, but in a significantly better position than many people would have imagined. We are seeing employment in an immeasurably stronger position than we would have imagined just a few months ago, along with a commensurate surge in tax revenues that contrasts with the gloomy forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility the last time we heard from the Chancellor. I share the view of my right hon. Friend the Member for Wokingham (John Redwood): we have to question how useful the OBR is when its forecasts are so far out, and have to hope that it can raise its game in the future Let me make a few brief points. First, I think the Chancellor was right to continue to highlight the cost of living as a major issue. I do not think we should assume that inflation will be fleeting and transitory; I think it could be with us for a long time, which is why it is important that we take action. The action on the universal credit taper rate will help, as will the national living wage, and the changes in fuel duty and other items will be useful as well, but we must prepare ourselves—steel ourselves—for the likelihood that this year and most of next year will be marked by a significant pressure on people on low and medium incomes Secondly, I am very concerned about the current level of public spending, and the size of the state. We must be honest with ourselves, and acknowledge that on top of the £400 billion of unplanned outlay that was required to get us through the covid response, we are now seeing the size of the state increase to the largest that it has been in peacetime. The amount of public expenditure today is higher than it was during the financial crisis; it is about the same as it was under Denis Healey in 1976, when he had to go cap in hand to the International Monetary Fund. The size of the state is large, and we have heard from the Chancellor today that it is going to grow even further, beyond 41% of national income. History suggests that that is not a sensible long-term level for public expenditure, because it starts to crowd out the private sector, and makes it hard to build and sustain the free-market, free-enterprise economy that we all want to see That leads me to two points. One is that we have to ensure that this public money is well spent. I think particularly of the NHS, which is soon to account for 40% of total current expenditure. That is a significant amount. Many of us, and our constituents, want to see the NHS properly funded, but a heavy burden of responsibility now falls on the Department of Health and Social Care to ensure that the money is well spent and is accompanied by reform. I remember previous settlements, including the one referred to by my right hon. Friend the Member for Maidenhead (Mrs May). Just a couple of years ago, money was given to the NHS without a proper plan for reform and was not well spent, so I hope that this money will be spent differently The second point is the difference between funding for day-to-day purposes and funding that will genuinely increase productivity in the economy. At the end of the day, as many Members have already said, it is all about productivity growth. The forecasts that the Chancellor set out earlier today were for one or two years, if we are to believe the OBR, of very significant growth in the economy, and then a return to low levels of growth— 1% or 1.3%—with perhaps a decade of low growth ahead of us We have to improve productivity, and in that respect there was much to commend in the Budget and the spending review: significant increases in infrastructure, particularly the sorts of infrastructure, such as roads, railways and broadband, that will genuinely improve productivity and boost the economy, and the work on skills—in particular lifelong learning, which for too long has been a weakness in our country.