Asteroid 2006 QV89, a small object 20 to 50 metres in diameter, was in the news lately because of a very small, one-in-7000 chance of impact with Earth on 9 September 2019.

In the first known case of ruling out an asteroid impact through a "non-detection," ESA and the European Southern Observatory have concluded that asteroid 2006 QV89 is not on a collision course this year—and the chance of any future impact is extremely remote.

Asteroids come and go, quite literally, often frustrating astronomers. You can catch sight of a hurtling space rock, take some measurements to narrow down its orbit, and days later it's gone—potentially remaining unobservable for decades.

In general, when an asteroid is found to have even a tiny chance of impacting Earth, further observations and measurements are taken. These "astrometric" data refine our understanding of the asteroid's path, improving our understanding of the risk it poses and often excluding any chance of collision altogether.

However, the case of asteroid 2006 QV89 is peculiar. The object was discovered in August 2006 and then observed for only ten days. These observations suggested it had a 1-in-7000 chance of impacting Earth on 9 September 2019.

After the tenth day, the asteroid was unobservable and has not been seen since. Now, after more than a decade, we can predict its position with only very poor accuracy. As a result it is extremely difficult for astronomers to re-observe it, as no one knows exactly where to point a telescope.

Nevertheless, there is a way to obtain the information needed.

Nice to not see you

While we do not know 2006 QV89's trajectory exactly, we do know where it would appear in the sky if it were on a collision course with our planet. Therefore, we can simply observe this small area of the sky to check that the asteroid is indeed, hopefully, not there.

This way, we have the chance to indirectly exclude any risk of an impact, even without actually seeing the asteroid.

This is precisely what ESA and the European Southern Observatory (ESO) did on 4 and 5 July, as part of the ongoing collaboration between the two organizations to observe high-risk asteroids using ESO's Very Large Telescope (VLT).

Teams obtained very "deep" images of a small area in the sky, where the asteroid would have been located if it were on track to impact Earth in September.

Nothing was seen.

The image above shows the region of the sky where asteroid 2006 QV80 would have been seen if on a collision course with Earth this year.

The three red crosses reveal the specific locations, where the asteroid could have appeared as a single, bright, round source, had it been on a collision course.

Even if the asteroid were smaller than expected, at only a few metres across, it would have been seen in the image. Any smaller than this and the VLT could not have spotted it, but it would also be considered harmless as any asteroid this size would burn up in Earth's atmosphere. </s> Breaking news for all you doomsday lovers out there: The 20-50 meter asteroid 2006 QV8 will NOT hit the Earth on September 9th. 



There was a one in 7,000 chance (this is fleetingly small) that asteroid 2006 QV89 would impact Earth in two months, according to a European Space Agency and European Southern Observatory release. But follow-up observations have once again confirmed that none of the asteroids we know about are at risk of impacting the Earth. The same cannot be said of asteroids we don’t know about, of course.

At present, scientists monitor the sky for asteroids using a few surveys, and then a host of telescopes around the world are tasked with following up—taking more observations to gather the asteroid’s properties and trajectories. The more we know about these objects, the better we can calculate their orbits and assess how much of a risk they pose.

Scientists spotted 2006 QV89 in 2006, watched it for 10 days, and then couldn’t find it again. That’s not so surprising, given that 20-50 meters is quite small as far as space rocks go. Nonetheless, no one wants their community to be hit by an asteroid that large. A 20-meter asteroid exploded over Chelyabinsk, Russia back in 2013, shattering windows throughout the city and injuring nearly 1,500 people (thankfully no deaths were linked to the blast). The effects of a larger asteroid might be worse.

So, rather than try to find the asteroid again to get better observations, scientists operating the ESO’s Very Large Telescope looked to a part of the sky on July 4 and 5 that the asteroid should have passed through if it were going to hit Earth this year. There was no asteroid—and thus, no need to worry about the impact, or future impacts, based on all of the data combined. This could be the first time that an asteroid strike has been ruled out in a method like this, according to the ESA.

Though we’re not threatened by any known asteroids today, space agencies make a big deal out of planetary defense—and they have a long way to go to improve their monitoring. Congress has tasked NASA to find 90 percent of the asteroids bigger than 140 meters (around the size of a football stadium), but simulations and estimates suggest only around a third have been found so far, Kelly Fast, NASA’s Near-Earth Object Observations program manager, recently told Gizmodo. The size of 140 meters was selected because these rocks could have catastrophic regional effects, but smaller asteroids can still pack a punch. Thankfully, statistics are on our side, and asteroids grow increasingly less common as they increase in radius.



This asteroid non-detection demonstrates an important, less-exciting piece of the scientific method. Sometimes, finding nothing is as important as finding something. </s> Good news: Asteroid 2006 QV89 is not on a collision course for Earth this year.

Even better news: The chance of future impact is “extremely remote,” according to the European Space Agency (ESA).

The small object—about 65 to 165 feet in diameter—made headlines recently based on a very small chance of contact this September.

Now, in the first known case of using “non-detection” to rule out the horror of a minor planet crashing into Earth, ESA and the European Southern Observatory (ESO) confirmed we are not in danger.

At least not from asteroid 2006 QV89.

“In general, when an asteroid is found to have even a tiny chance of impacting Earth, further observations and measurements are taken,” an ESA blog post explained.

But this case is “peculiar.”

Discovered in August 2006, the object was observed for only 10 days, leading scientists to conclude that it had a 1-in-7,000 chance of impacting Earth on Sept. 9, 2019.

“After the tenth day, the asteroid was unobservable and has not been seen since,” the agency continued. “Now, after more than a decade, we can predict its position with only very poor accuracy.”

Don’t start ringing the bells of the apocalypse, though.

While astronomers don’t know 2006 QV89’s exact trajectory, they do know where it would appear in the sky if it were on a collision course with our planet.

“Therefore, we can simply observe this small area of the sky to check that the asteroid is indeed, hopefully, not there,” the ESA said.

Which is precisely what the ESO and ESA did.

As folks in the US ate hot dogs, watched fireworks, and enjoyed a long weekend, analysts in Europe searched the heavens: Teams obtained “deep” images of an area of sky—where the asteroid would be if it were on track to impact Earth later this year.

“Even if the asteroid were smaller than expected, at only a few meters across, it would have been seen in the image,” according to the ESA. “Any smaller than this and the VLT could not have spotted it, but it would also be considered harmless as any asteroid this size would burn up in Earth’s atmosphere.”
• None Hayabusa-2 to Land on Asteroid Ryugu for Second Sample Collection
• None ‘Double Asteroid’ Speeding by Earth at 43,000 MPH Captured in Photo </s> Exhale. We are safe from the asteroid that scary headlines were warning us about in early June, according to new observations from the European Space Agency and the European Southern Observatory.

The space rock is called 2006 QV89. It's around 20 to 50 metres (65 to 164 feet) across, and its orbit around the Sun crosses Earth's in such a way that there was a one in 7,000 chance of a collision on 9 September.

That's a 0.00014 percent probability, which put it pretty high up on the European Space Agency's (ESA) risk list, a catalogue of all extraterrestrial objects with a non-zero impact chance.

One could interpret that as a comforting reminder that the chance of an asteroid impact is actually really low, but this is the real world, so we got a bunch of alarmist news reports instead.

Now, we have the truth.

"The European Southern Observatory have concluded that asteroid 2006 QV89 is not on a collision course this year - and the chance of any future impact is extremely remote," the ESA clarified in an announcement.

But this whole debacle has turned out to be a good thing - because, for the first time ever, astronomers have ruled out an asteroid collision by way of not detecting it.

Asteroids are actually hard to see. They're rather small, moving around at great distances, and often not very reflective. Also, the smaller they are - obviously - the harder they are to detect. Often an asteroid shows up, astronomers take a bunch of measurements, and then the asteroid moves along and becomes undetectable again.

2006 QV89 is an asteroid of this kind. It was discovered in 2006, and over the course of 10 days, astronomers took observations. Then it vanished. We've not seen hide nor hair of it since.

But those 10 days provided enough data for scientists to calculate its elliptical orbit - arriving at the conclusion that the asteroid would cross Earth's orbit on 9 September 2019 at a close-enough point to our planet that there was some risk of collision.

But, although that's some pretty nifty calculation based on limited data, we still don't know exactly where it is at any given point in time. This is where the non-detection method comes in - and this is really clever.

"While we do not know 2006 QV89's trajectory exactly, we do know where it would appear in the sky if it were on a collision course with our planet," wrote the ESA. "Therefore, we can simply observe this small area of the sky to check that the asteroid is indeed, hopefully, not there."

So, that's what they did. On 4 and 5 July, they turned one of the most powerful telescopes on Earth to search that patch of sky, the Very Large Telescope (VLT) in Paranal, Chile.

Even if the asteroid had been much smaller than thought - only a few metres across, as opposed to tens - the VLT would have been able to detect it as a patch of brightness in that area of the sky.

As you've already gathered, there's nothing there - nothing within the VLT's capabilities, anyway. Which is great, because anything smaller than the VLT could detect would be too small to impact; it would burn up in reentry.

So you can rest easy in your beds. At least until 2022. That's when the 13-metre asteroid 2009JF1 has a one in 4,464 chance of hitting Earth. Stay tuned for the headlines. </s> An asteroid predicted to have a small chance of one day colliding with Earth will miss us this time around when it makes a close approach on September 9, the European Space Agency says.

ESA has ruled out an impact this year from an asteroid called 2006 QV89, and found that any future impacts are extremely unlikely.

And, for the first time, the scientists made this determination not by assessing where the asteroid is, but by where it isn’t.

According to ESA, asteroid 2006 QV89 has not been seen since it was first discovered back in August 2006.

While that might sound unsettling, the space agency has ruled out a September 9 impact by way of ‘non-detection,’ after looking where it would be if it were on the collision course and (thankfully) spotting no sign of it.

Using the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope in Chile, scientists have pinpointed the precise area of the sky asteroid 2006 QV89 would be if it were going to collide with Earth.

Even if it were smaller than expected, ESA says the object would show up as a bright speck if it were traveling through.

And, any smaller than that and it would pose no risk at all, as it would burn up in the atmosphere.

Initial calculations had put the chances of an impact on September 9 at just 1-in-7000, according to ESA.

But, the space agency now says it’s ruled that out entirely.

Asteroid 2006 QV89 is estimated to be 20-50 meters wide and was first observed in August 2006, when scientists tracked it for ten days before it disappeared.

‘After the tenth day, the asteroid was unobservable and has not been seen since,’ ESA says.

‘Now, after more than a decade, we can predict its position with only very poor accuracy.

‘As a result it is extremely difficult for astronomers to re-observe it, as no one knows exactly where to point a telescope.’

Even with minimal chances of slamming into Earth, scientists still must take further measurements to pinpoint any future risks.

Without its exact location, the team had to go with what it does know: where it would be if it were a danger to us.

‘Therefore, we can simply observe this small area of the sky to check that the asteroid is indeed, hopefully, not there,’ ESA says.

‘This way, we have the chance to indirectly exclude any risk of an impact, even without actually seeing the asteroid.’ </s> Asteroid 2006 QV89 just performed the cosmic equivalent of shouting "Boo!" It might have startled us, but it won't cause any real damage.

The European Space Agency said the asteroid had an extremely tiny 1-in-7,000 chance of impacting Earth in September when it visits our neighborhood. ESA has now adjusted that to zero.

Scientists first spotted the asteroid in 2006, but had only a short window of opportunity for observations, leaving us uncertain about its trajectory.

"We do know where it would appear in the sky if it were on a collision course with our planet. Therefore, we can simply observe this small area of the sky to check that the asteroid is indeed, hopefully, not there," ESA said in a statement on Tuesday.

ESA and the European Southern Observatory scanned that bit of sky and thankfully found no asteroid. This is the "first known case of ruling out an asteroid impact through a 'non-detection,'" ESA said.

The agency released an image of that section of sky showing the absence of the asteroid.

While 2006 QV89 is small at somewhere around 65 to 165 feet (20 to 50 meters) in diameter, it could potentially have a devastating effect along the lines of what happened when an asteroid exploded over the city of Chelyabinsk in Russia in 2013. That event caused over 1,200 injuries and extensive damage to buildings.

Our sigh of relief at not being in the asteroid's path can continue for many years. ESA says any chance of future impact is extremely remote. </s> Asteroid YB35 safely flew by Earth on 27 March 2014, and was spotted by NASA and observed by the Goldstone Observatory on 20 March 2015. On this day, the asteroid was expected to be in a optimal position so that the observatory could obtain coarse radar images. Credit: European Space Agency

Asteroid 2006 QV89, a small object 20 to 50 metres in diameter, was in the news lately because of a very small, one-in-7000 chance of impact with Earth on 9 September 2019.

In the first known case of ruling out an asteroid impact through a "non-detection," ESA and the European Southern Observatory have concluded that asteroid 2006 QV89 is not on a collision course this year—and the chance of any future impact is extremely remote.

Catching a glimpse

Asteroids come and go, quite literally, often frustrating astronomers. You can catch sight of a hurtling space rock, take some measurements to narrow down its orbit, and days later it's gone—potentially remaining unobservable for decades.

In general, when an asteroid is found to have even a tiny chance of impacting Earth, further observations and measurements are taken. These "astrometric" data refine our understanding of the asteroid's path, improving our understanding of the risk it poses and often excluding any chance of collision altogether.

However, the case of asteroid 2006 QV89 is peculiar. The object was discovered in August 2006 and then observed for only ten days. These observations suggested it had a 1-in-7000 chance of impacting Earth on 9 September 2019.

This artist’s impression, based on detailed spacecraft observations, shows the strange peanut-shaped asteroid Itokawa. By making exquisitely precise timing measurements using ESO’s New Technology Telescope a team of astronomers has found that different parts of this asteroid have different densities. As well as revealing secrets about the asteroid’s formation, finding out what lies below the surface of asteroids may also shed light on what happens when bodies collide in the Solar System, and provide clues about how planets form. Credit: JAXA, ESO/L. Calçada/M. Kornmesser/Nick Risinger (skysurvey.org)

After the tenth day, the asteroid was unobservable and has not been seen since. Now, after more than a decade, we can predict its position with only very poor accuracy. As a result it is extremely difficult for astronomers to re-observe it, as no one knows exactly where to point a telescope.

Nevertheless, there is a way to obtain the information needed.

Nice to not see you

While we do not know 2006 QV89's trajectory exactly, we do know where it would appear in the sky if it were on a collision course with our planet. Therefore, we can simply observe this small area of the sky to check that the asteroid is indeed, hopefully, not there.

This way, we have the chance to indirectly exclude any risk of an impact, even without actually seeing the asteroid.

This is precisely what ESA and the European Southern Observatory (ESO) did on 4 and 5 July, as part of the ongoing collaboration between the two organizations to observe high-risk asteroids using ESO's Very Large Telescope (VLT).

Orbit of asteroid 2006 QV89. Credit: European Space Agency

Teams obtained very "deep" images of a small area in the sky, where the asteroid would have been located if it were on track to impact Earth in September.

Nothing was seen.

The image above shows the region of the sky where asteroid 2006 QV80 would have been seen if on a collision course with Earth this year.

The three red crosses reveal the specific locations, where the asteroid could have appeared as a single, bright, round source, had it been on a collision course.

Even if the asteroid were smaller than expected, at only a few metres across, it would have been seen in the image. Any smaller than this and the VLT could not have spotted it, but it would also be considered harmless as any asteroid this size would burn up in Earth's atmosphere.

Explore further Video: ESA defending Earth

More information: Find out more about ESA's work to detect risky asteroids, and one day even to mitigate the risk they pose, here: Find out more about ESA's work to detect risky asteroids, and one day even to mitigate the risk they pose, here: www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Spa … fety/Risky_asteroids </s> Astronomers shocked the world earlier a few weeks ago by warning that a space rock called Asteroid 2006 QV89 had a very small chance of smashing into Earth.

Now the European Space Agency has released a new analysis of the risk posed by the object which contains the startling revelation that it has simply disappeared and can no longer be tracked by telescopes.

Asteroid 2006 QV89 is 40 meters is wide and headed our way, with scientists previously calculating that it had a 1-in-7,000 chance of hitting our fragile planet on September 9.

The space rock was first spotted in 2006. It was observed for 10 days and then simply vanished.

‘Asteroids come and go, quite literally, often frustrating astronomers,’ the European Space Agency wrote.

‘You can catch sight of a hurtling space rock, take some measurements to narrow down its orbit, and days later it’s gone – potentially remaining unobservable for decades.’

But although we can’t see the asteroid and don’t really have the foggiest idea where it is, we know where it would be if it was headed our way.

ESA astronomers have carefully surveyed an area of sky in which the rock would appear it it was doomed to smash into humanity’s homeworld.

We’re glad to report that the killer space rock was nowhere to be seen, meaning it’s not going to smash into Earth and kill vast numbers of people.

ESA added: ‘In the first known case of ruling out an asteroid impact through a “non-detection”, ESA and the European Southern Observatory have concluded that asteroid 2006 QV89 is not on a collision course this year – and the chance of any future impact is extremely remote.’

Asteroid 2006 QV89 is quite small so would not destroy humanity if it smashed into our world.

In 1908, 80 million trees were knocked down over an area of 800 square miles hidden deep in the Siberian forest when a meteor thought to be up to 190 metres wide crashed into Earth.

If the object which caused this devastation had hit a populated area, it could have killed millions and razed a city to the ground.

The mysterious ‘Tunguska event’ was the largest asteroid impact in recorded history and caused an explosion 1,000 times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb. </s> If you’ve been wringing your hands and saying your goodbyes in advance of the visit from asteroid 2006 QV89 later this year, you can relax. The space rock, which had a very, very tiny chance of posing a threat to Earth, has been under close observation by astronomers who have since confirmed that it will indeed miss our planet entirely.

As the ESA and European Southern Observatory explain in a new post, the asteroid was thought to have a roughly 1-in-7,000 shot at impacting Earth. That’s an incredibly tiny percentage, but it was still a risk that had to be investigated. Thankfully, we can all breathe easy. Probably.

The asteroid wouldn’t exactly be a “planet killer” even if it did strike Earth. Upper ranges of its estimated size put it at just over 160 feet across, so it would likely do some serious damage if it exploded in the skies above a populated region, but it’s not the kind of doomsday asteroid that we imagine from science fiction flicks.

“While we do not know 2006 QV89’s trajectory exactly, we do know where it would appear in the sky if it were on a collision course with our planet,” ESA explains. “Therefore, we can simply observe this small area of the sky to check that the asteroid is indeed, hopefully, not there.”

The researchers did exactly that and saw that the asteroid was indeed not on the potentially dangerous course that would make it a risk for us on Earth.

“Even if the asteroid were smaller than expected, at only a few metres across, it would have been seen in the image,” ESA says. “Any smaller than this and the VLT could not have spotted it, but it would also be considered harmless as any asteroid this size would burn up in Earth’s atmosphere.”
Astronomers rule out the chances of ~30-meter asteroid 2006 QV89's impacting Earth in September 2019 by eliminating the possibility of its passing through an area where it would have to be if it were on an impacting orbit. Prior to this, the asteroid had been given a one-in-7,000 chance of impacting Earth.