Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott is set to lose the seat he has held for 25 years as counting begins in the 2019 Federal Election.

The Liberal MP was up against former Olympian and Independent candidate Zali Steggall, and admitted he was nervous as he cast his vote at Forestville Public School on Saturday morning.

Early results show Ms Steggall has 46 per cent of the primary vote, with five per cent counted so far.

The numbers are expected to continue flowing her way, as the majority of preferences in that seat are directed towards her.

The seat of Warringah has been held by the Liberal Party since 1951, and by Mr Abbott since 1994.

Mr Abbott suffered a nine per cent primary vote swing against him at the 2016 election and now holds the seat with an 11 per cent margin.

But some bookies have ranked independent Zali Steggall the favourite.

When asked how he was feeling by a voter as he headed to the booth, Mr Abbott said he was 'not too cocky'.

He told reporters he has always been a nervous candidate, but went on to say his churning stomach was a burden everyone standing for government faced.

'Sure, I've got a few butterflies doing loop-the-loops in my tummy today as well,' he said.

'But that's the lot of all candidates because the one thing you can never take for granted is the vote of the Australian people.' </s> Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott has faced off against newcomer Zali Steggall in Warringah debate.

A man was stabbed in the stomach while he was putting up Tony Abbott posters last night.

The 32-year-old was not badly injured during the attack and was treated by paramedics at the scene at Balgowlah Heights Public School, on Sydney’s northern beaches, about 8.30pm.

The man was with others putting up campaign material for Mr Abbott, who is facing a major challenge from independent Zali Steggall for the seat he has held for 25 years in today’s election.

While plastering posters they were yelled at by another man who was walking by, The Daily Telegraph reported.

The two men got into an argument before the 32-year-old was stabbed with what is thought to be a screwdriver.

The alleged offender then ran off and is being hunted by police from Northern Beaches Police Area Command.

Mr Abbott holds Warringah with an 11 per cent margin and many would have thought this was unassailable — that was until independent Kerryn Phelps secured a shock win in the blue-ribbon seat of Wentworth, which retiring Liberal MP Malcolm Turnbull had held with a 17 per cent margin.

Now Mr Abbott is in what he has described as the “fight of my life” to hang on to his seat and political career.

Internal Liberal Party polling done in the electorate ahead of the election being called was reportedly “diabolically bad” for Mr Abbott. </s> Former prime minister Tony Abbott has lost his northern beaches seat of Warringah to independent Zali Steggall.

The ex-Liberal leader had held Warringah for 24 years but early counting suggests the Liberals could lose the seat with his former chief of staff confirming alarm bells were ringing.

With almost 20 per cent of the vote counted at 7.30pm, Mr Abbott had just 37 per cent of the primary vote, compared with Ms Steggall who had 45 per cent of first preference votes.
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“I would have thought it would be a little bit tighter than this - it looks like it’s real trouble,” Peta Credlin told Sky News on Saturday night.

Liberal senator Michaelia Cash told Seven News: “The primary vote is clearly an issue.”

ABC election analyst said Zali Steggall had 45 per cent of the primary vote compared to Mr Abbott’s 37 per cent.

“Tony Abbott is not going to win if those are the first preferences,” he said.

Media were locked out of the former prime minister’s election night function and told they’d only be briefly allowed in to record his speech.

“Life goes on,” one Liberal supporter said.

Abbott supporters were subdued as they trickled in to to the Manly Leagues Club’s Encores Room.

By way of contrast, Ms Steggall arrived to a rockstar reception at the Novotel hotel in Manly.

Ms Steggall described the night as “a referendum for Warringah”.

“We’ve worked very hard for the past four months to make this happen - I think it’s democracy,” she told reporters.

“Politics in Australia has not been at its best for the past 10 years and it’s time we changed that. I really take that on board and I take great responsibility for that.”

7NEWS veteran Chris Reason said things were looking “dramatically bad” for the former PM.

“He will be in a state of nervousness, perhaps even panic, by now, watching the numbers as they roll in,” he said.

“Exit polling as well from Fairfax has shown particular results that he is in deep trouble here in Warringah, a seat he has held since that by-election in ’94.

“He has won nine elections here over the last 25 years. He was praying tonight would be number 10 but it is not looking that way.” </s> Australians have mocked former Prime Minister Tony Abbott for the political gaffe he never recovered from, after he lost his seat of 25 years.

Hundreds took to Twitter to encourage others to 'put your onions out', a reminder of the moment Mr Abbott took a bite out of a raw onion as he campaigned in late 2015.

Mr Abbott was touring Woolworths supplier, Charlton Farm Produce near Devonport in Tasmania, when he took the historic bite, shocking voters nationwide.

He finally explained himself to Andrew Bolt on Sky News earlier this year, claiming he chowed down because the farmer was 'extremely proud of the produce'.

'All of us eat raw onion occasionally... salads are full of raw onion,' the former prime minister said.

He explained the onion had no outer skin and was effectively peeled when he took a bite.

'I thought the least I could do for someone who is proud of his product as this particular farmer was... was take a chomp, and it was beautiful,' Mr Abbott said.

Twitter users shared photographs of onions laid out at their front doors in tribute, though none of them appeared to be too upset by the result.

Abbott was one of the first casualties of the 2019 election, losing his blue-ribbon Liberal seat to Independent Zali Steggall.

Early polling saw Ms Steggall soar ahead of her opponent, who admitted he was nervous as he cast his vote at Forestville Public School on Saturday morning.

With just 11 per cent counted, Ms Steggall had a swing of more than 45 per cent towards her.

The numbers are expected to continue flowing her way, as the majority of preferences in that seat are directed towards her.

The seat of Warringah has been held by the Liberal Party since 1951, and by Mr Abbott since 1994.

Mr Abbott suffered a nine per cent primary vote swing against him at the 2016 election and now holds the seat with an 11 per cent margin, and ABC's Annabel Crabb says Abbott's disconnect with voters was the reason behind his demise.

Obviously he had an incredibly intense campaign run by a very credible Independent candidate,' she said.

'There was the assistance, or negative assistance in Mr Abbott's case, of the group GetUp, which knocked on 25,000 doors and made 150,000 phone calls.

They did some exit polling today which found that climate change was the number one issue for Warringah voters and the number one issue for lost Liberals who said they'd voted against Tony Abbott.'

When asked how he was feeling by a voter as he headed to the booth on Saturday morning, Mr Abbott said he was 'not too cocky'.

He told reporters he has always been a nervous candidate, but went on to say his churning stomach was a burden everyone standing for government faced.

'Sure, I've got a few butterflies doing loop-the-loops in my tummy today as well,' he said.

'But that's the lot of all candidates because the one thing you can never take for granted is the vote of the Australian people.' </s> Even after losing his seat, Tony Abbott refused to acknowledge that he's out of touch with Australia.

And he is, in part, right. The former prime minister has been driven out of the seat he's held for 25 years and one of the big factors is the renewed sense of urgency over climate change.

Abbott agreed that his long sneer at climate change told heavily against him, while the victorious independent Zali Steggall declared to her electorate: "I will be a climate leader for you".

He conceded that he was out of step with the people of Warringah. </s> Independent knocks former PM out of parliament with pro-climate action campaign

This article is more than 3 months old

This article is more than 3 months old

One of the Liberals’ leading conservatives and Australia’s 28th prime minister, Tony Abbott, has lost his blue-ribbon Sydney seat of Warringah after moderate Liberal voters abandoned him in protest at the role he played in opposing climate change action.

Abbott lost to the independent candidate and Olympian Zali Steggall, with thecount showing she was likely to win almost 60% of the vote on a two-party-preferred basis.

But Abbott’s loss appeared to be the only black spot on a night when it appeared the Coalition would hold on to government.

“I want to say to you: there is good news and bad news. There is every chance that the Liberal-National Coalition has won the election,” Abbott said in his concession speech, to chants of “Tony, Tony!”

“This – this is a really extraordinary result. It is a stupendous result. It is a great result for Scott Morrison and the rest of the wider Liberal team, and Scott Morrison will now, quite rightly, enter the Liberal pantheon forever,” he said.

“So its disappointing for us in Warringah. I can’t say it doesn’t hurt to lose. But I would rather be a loser than a quitter,” he said to wild applause.

Facts go out of the window in the battle for Warringah | The Weekly Beast Read more

He said the Liberals had become the party who believed that “the most important thing is to raise people up.”

“I think we can see that there is something of a realignment of politics going on right around this country. It’s clear that in what might be described as ‘working seats’, we are doing so much better.

“It’s also clear that in at least some of what might be described as ‘wealthy seats’, we are doing it tough, and the green-left is doing better,” he said.

Abbott said he had feared the worst after the result in the Wentworth byelection last year.

Backed by a number of local community groups, Steggall was drafted as a candidate to advocate for more action on the climate crisis. She had run on a platform that was almost entirely focused on taking meaningful action to counter it, including adopting much tougher targets than the Coalition has embraced – a message that resonated with the middle-class voters of Warringah. Her support was especially strong in Mosman and Manly.

The loss of one the most outspoken members of the conservative wing would normally send deep shockwaves through the Liberal party, but given the other results on Saturday night it seems less certain that Abbott’s defeat will prompt internal debate about the party’s positioning on the climate crisis.

Play Video 0:31 'The sweetest victory of all’: Peter Dutton quotes Paul Keating after winning in Dickson – video

The survival of Peter Dutton in the seat of Dickson will also boost the conservative wing of the party.

Abbott said the result showed that where climate change was a “moral issue, we do it tough. But where it’s an economic issue, we do very, very well.”

Steggall’s campaign was supported by a number of grassroots groups which had formed out of disillusion with the Liberal party’s policy on the climate emergency.

In her acceptance speech she paid tribute to Abbott as “a dedicated and long-serving local member”.

“Nobody can doubt his community spirit, his work ethic, and his contribution to this community. And I wish him well.”

But she said Warringah had “voted for the future”.

“This is a win for moderates with a heart,” she said. “I will be a climate leader for you. And I will keep the new government to account, and make sure we take action on climate change.

The Warringah result is certain to be analysed in terms of what a grassroots campaign can do against a seemingly invulnerable politician.

'And this is Mosman!': genteel Warringah rocked by election rancour Read more

Several high-profile former Liberal members from Mosman were behind the push to find a candidate to run against Abbott and the vote shows they were successful in their strategy to get family and friends to persuade other Liberal-leaning voters to lodge a protest vote.

There is also likely to be a heated discussion, particularly from the News Corp publications, about the role of left-leaning and progressive organisations in the political process, with conservatives warning that progressive groups represent a threat to democracy because of their deep pockets.

The seat was a hot spot for activism by GetUp, which door-knocked more than 20,000 households in the north shore and northern beaches seat, and Stop Adani, which was also active.

Abbott had held Warringah for 25 years, having won it 1994 in a byelection.

The former journalist and political adviser to John Howard became a public figure as the director of Australians for a Constitional Monarchy in 1992, a position he held until he ran for the seat.

As an MP Abbott rose quickly in the Howard government and was appointed minister for employment services in 1998 after Howard won a second term.

He later became minister for health, where he sought to prosecute a conservative agenda, including seeking to ban the abortion drug RU486, a move Howard ultimately did not embrace.

'Pea for a heart': Tony Abbott refuses to back down on partisan tribute to Bob Hawke Read more

After Howard lost in 2007, Abbott served in the shadow cabinets of Brendan Nelson and Malcolm Turnbull but he resigned from the frontbench in November 2009 in protest against Turnbull’s support for the Rudd government’s proposed emissions trading scheme.

That set the stage for a decade-long battle within the Liberal party over climate . Abbott once branded the science of climate change “crap” and led the opposition internally to wipe out subsidies for renewables and any policy that attempted to put a price on carbon.

After forcing a leadership ballot on the subject in 2009, Abbott defeated Turnbull by 42 votes to 41, to become the party’s leader and leader of the opposition.

He led the Coalition at the 2010 election, which resulted in a hung parliament but Labor, led by Julia Gillard, formed government, with the support of one Greens MP and three independents.

Regarded as fearsome campaigner, Abbott was re-elected as Liberal leader unopposed. He went on to lead the Coalition to victory in the 2013 election.

But just two years later, on 14 September 2015, Abbott was defeated as Liberal party leader 54 votes to 44 by Malcolm Turnbull, who replaced him as prime minister the following day.

Abbott was widely seen as a driving force behind the destabilisation of Turnbull’s leadership and the thwarting of the national energy guarantee, Turnbull’s policy to tackle global heating.

In 2018 Turnbull was in turn challenged and replaced by Scott Morrison.

Abbott appeared to leave open the door for a possible comeback, saying his public life was not over. </s> With so many gains for the Coalition and so few for Labor, Mr Shorten's hopes of becoming Prime Minister receded as election night went on. The Coalition, which has trailed Labor in the polls throughout its turbulent time in government, went in to the campaign with 74 seats and added to that tally across Queensland, where it defeated Labor in Longman and Herbert. The Coalition also wrested the Tasmanian seat of Braddon from Labor and appeared likely to claim the neighbouring electorate of Bass as well. The Coalition and Labor teams were anxiously waiting on results from Western Australia to be sure of the outcome. The Coalition's gains left Labor clutching to the hope of negotiating with crossbench MPs to hold government in a hung Parliament. With the electorate enduring more than a decade of unprecedented parliamentary bloodletting - Australia has had seven Prime Ministers in 11 years - many neutral observers were hoping for a period of political stability.

However, the result shows the nation is divided along geographic and ideological lines with Mr Abbott declaring a political "realignment" with Labor making gains in progressive wealthy seats and the Coalition doing better in working class areas. A group of key independents could still hold the key to power. Mr Abbott said the Coalition would be able to retain government even though he conceded he would lose his seat of Warringah, a safe Liberal electorate for years that came under attack from independent candidate Zali Steggall and her campaign for more action on climate change. "The good news is that there is every chance the Liberal National Coalition has won this election," Mr Abbott said. "This is a really extraordinary result, it is a stupendous result, it is a great result for Scott Morrison and the rest of the Liberal team, and Scott Morrison will quite rightly enter the Liberal pantheon forever."

In western Sydney, the electorate of Lindsay fell to the Liberals while the neighbouring electorate of Macquarie appeared to be shifting in the same way. In eastern Sydney, the Liberal Party was confident of regaining the blue-ribbon seat of Wentworth with Liberal candidate Dave Sharma ahead of independent MP Kerryn Phelps, who gained the seat at a byelection last year. The outcomes give the Coalition a narrow majority in the House of Representatives unless it suffers the loss of other seats. Labor gained the seat of Gilmore on the NSW South Coast and the two Victorian seats of Chisholm and Dunkley. Bill Shorten with his wife Chloe on election day. Early in the night, Mr Shorten appeared to be on track to become Australia's 31st prime minister after an exit poll predicted a swing to Labor, with voters naming health and climate change as key factors in their decisions.

While Labor Party members were buoyant before the early count, Mr Morrison expressed caution about his chances, saying he made "no assumptions" about holding on to power. While the Liberal Party appeared likely to regain Wentworth, independent MPs made gains elsewhere with Victorian independent Helen Haines on track to win Indi and succeed former independent MP Cathy McGowan. Combined with the victory for Ms Steggall, the election appears to leave Parliament with a crossbench that includes Greens MP Adam Bandt, Tasmanian independent Andrew Wilkie, Queenslander Bob Katter, South Australian Rebekha Sharkie as well as Ms Steggall and Dr Haines. Mr Wilkie has ruled out doing any deal with a minority government while Mr Katter has backed the Coalition in the past. Others have named climate change policy as a factor in their decisions on whether to support a minority government on votes of confidence and supply.

The government's 74 seats in the House of Representatives was down from the 76 it won at the last election due to the departure of former Liberal MP Julia Banks to the crossbench and the arrival of independent MP Kerryn Phelps in Wentworth. Labor started with 69 seats from the last Parliament. Bill Shorten and wife Chloe, left, and Scott Morrison and wife Jenny, right, vote on Saturday. Labor described its election effort as its largest "field campaign" in history, putting more than 25,000 volunteers into the field to knock on more than one million doors. Labor claimed its supporters made more than one million phone calls to urge Australians to back their party. Activist group GetUp said it had mobilised more than 9000 volunteers who had worked on the ground, with a wider group of helpers making more than 700,000 phone calls during the campaign. The ACTU had about 5000 volunteers working during the campaign.

Mr Shorten began the final day of the campaign by urging Australians to change the government because Labor would act on climate change, spend more on health, restore stability after the leadership division within the Liberal Party and improve fairness by scaling back tax concessions for the wealthy. He visited Melbourne electorates after an early morning run wearing a t-shirt that asked people to vote for "Chloe Shorten's husband" – an acknowledgement of his wife's importance to his campaign. Mr Morrison campaigned at a more hectic pace by flying to Tasmania on Saturday morning to woo voters in the marginal seat of Bass before heading to Sydney for the remainder of the day. The Coalition adopted the same approach the previous day with a relentless tour through Queensland marginal seats.

"I already feel a responsibility to millions of people to win. But sure, I want to do it for Bob, as well," Mr Shorten said on Thursday. "I don't want to let his memory down." </s> Australia has a hung federal parliament after independent Dr Kerryn Phelps became the first ever non-Liberal candidate to claim victory in the Wentworth by-election.

Victory to the well known GP in former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull's seat in Sydney's eastern suburbs has meant that the Morrison Government has lost its one seat majority.

Sky News and ABC analyst Antony Green declared victory to Dr Phelps within 90 minutes after polling booths closed at 6pm on Saturday.

A jubilant Dr Phelps was all smiles as she made her grand entrance at her election party at North Bondi Life Saving Club at around 8pm, where she hugged and danced with supporters.

'I won't let you down,' she told the crowd.

Mr Turnbull's son Alex welcomed the result against the Liberals.

'Incredible result and proud of the people of Wentworth. A hearty congratulations to Dr Kerryn Phelps who fought a great campaign. A great day for Australian democracy,' he tweeted on Saturday night.

It's the first time the Liberals haven't been elected in the seat since Federation in 1901.

Deputy opposition leader Tanya Plibersek urged Prime Minister Scott Morrison to call an early election during a Sky News interview.

Former Turnbull government minister Craig Laundy hopes the former prime minister isn't blamed for the loss in his former seat.

'If we do lose this seat tonight one of the interesting things we are going to see is how quickly those that were responsible (for the leadership challenge) try to turn it to: 'It's Malcolm's fault, not what we did,' Mr Laundy told Sky News.

'I argued all the way through for stability and loyalty and came up short but it's our job now and I think there is an internal struggle within the party sadly about where we go going forward.' </s> Australia has a hung federal parliament after independent Dr Kerryn Phelps claimed victory in the Wentworth by-election, becoming the first non-Liberal to hold the seat.

The shock result in former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull's seat in Sydney's eastern suburbs means the Morrison Government has lost its one seat majority.

Sky News and ABC analyst Antony Green declared victory to Dr Phelps within 90 minutes after polling booths closed at 6pm on Saturday.

A jubilant Dr Phelps was all smiles as she made her grand entrance at her election party at North Bondi Life Saving Club at around 8pm, where she hugged and danced with supporters.

'I won't let you down,' the well-known GP told the crowd.

'What we have done is tapped into a sentiment in the Australian people, to talk about the issues that are important to them. This victory is for the people in Australia who need a voice.'

Dr Phelps later told Sky News: 'I believe people want politics to move to the sensible centre. I believe they are interested in having strong, local representation. I will vote on good legislation if I see it.'

Liberal candidate Dave Sharma conceded defeat shortly afterwards, where he was briefly joined by Prime Minister Scott Morrison.

'I'm certainly glad I kept my day job,' Mr Sharma joked to supporters.

Mr Turnbull's son Alex welcomed the result against the Liberals.

'Incredible result and proud of the people of Wentworth. A hearty congratulations to Dr Kerryn Phelps who fought a great campaign. A great day for Australian democracy,' he tweeted on Saturday night.

It's the first time the Liberals haven't held the seat since Federation in 1901.

'Since 1901 Wentworth has provided the Liberal Party with two leaders, one PM, one deputy leader, a Treasurer, and an Attorney-General. It’s never been lost before. Today, Wentworth has called time on arrogance, incompetence, dysfunction,' shadow treasurer Chris Bowen tweeted.

Earlier on in the night, deputy opposition leader Tanya Plibersek urged Mr Morrison to call an early election during a Sky News interview.

Former Turnbull government minister Craig Laundy hopes the former prime minister isn't blamed for the loss in his former seat.

'If we do lose this seat tonight one of the interesting things we are going to see is how quickly those that were responsible (for the leadership challenge) try to turn it to: 'It's Malcolm's fault, not what we did,' Mr Laundy told Sky News.

'I argued all the way through for stability and loyalty and came up short but it's our job now and I think there is an internal struggle within the party sadly about where we go going forward.'
Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott loses his seat to independent candidate and former Olympian Zali Steggall.