BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (AP) — Facing widespread discontent over austerity measures and low growth, Argentine President Mauricio Macri was snubbed by voters who appeared to hand a resounding primary victory to a ticket with his predecessor, Cristina Fernández.

The preliminary results from Sunday's voting suggest the conservative Macri will face an uphill battle going into general elections in October, marking a sharp turnaround from just under four years ago when the country's left-leaning era appeared to be coming to a definitive end.

With 88% of polling stations tallied early Monday, official results gave the presidential slate headed by Alberto Fernández and his vice presidential running mate, Cristina Fernández, about 47% of the votes. Macri and his running mate, Miguel Ángel Pichetto, had 32% — a wide margin that revealed the considerable depth of Macri's weakness, potentially positioning the Fernández team to win in the first round of voting Oct. 27.

To be elected president in the first round, candidates need to finish with at least 45% of the votes or have 40% and a greater than 10-point advantage over the nearest rival. If no candidate wins outright in October, there will be a November runoff.

"We've had a bad election and that obligates us to redouble our efforts so that in October we will continue with change," Macri said in a late night address. "I think it is very important a dialogue continues in this country, and that we continue explaining to the world what it is we want."

Former Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna trailed far behind the two front-running slates with 8.4% of the votes, which is still potentially enough support to give him a kingmaker role in the fall. Six other presidential slates also were up for elections in the primaries, but parties that got less than 1.5% of the overall votes cast won't appear on the October ballot.

The pro-business Macri has the support of financial markets and Washington, but has lost popularity amid a deep economic crisis which drove the inflation rate to nearly 50% last year and slashed Argentines' purchasing power. He says he is taking the necessary, painful steps to get the economy going after 12 years of leftist populism under Cristina Fernández and her predecessor and late husband, Nestor Kirchner.

But the electorate issued a resounding rejection of his handling of the economic situation — and a recent lending package from the International Monetary Fund that totaled upward of $55 billion. Most Argentines blame the IMF for encouraging policies that led to the country's worst economic crisis in 2001, which resulted in one of every five Argentines being unemployed and millions sliding into poverty.

"It's clear that Macri's weakest point is the management of the economy, despite the fact that it has improved in the last three months," said Mariel Fornoni, director of the political consultancy Management & Fit.

The Fernández ticket, whose two members are not related, contends Macri must be defeated so they can fight the poverty and homelessness that they blame on his policies.

"We always fixed problems that others generated. We are going to do it once again," said Alberto Fernández, who was Cristina Fernández's chief of staff during her initial term in 2007-2011.

Cristina Fernández is currently facing a series of trials for corruption during her 2007-2015 administration. She denies the allegations.

In a recorded message from the southern province of Santa Cruz, she said Sunday's results made her Frente de Todos party "happy and optimistic."

"But not only because we won an election — this is not a soccer game. Many Argentines understood and understand that things must change in the Republic of Argentina because as we are not living well, we are not OK," she said.

The possibility that Cristina Fernández could return to power put markets on edge. Matías Carugati, chief economist for Management & Fit, said the victory of the Fernández team would put new, "sustained" pressure on the exchange rate and stocks due to the prospect that the South American's recent free, less state interventionist course could be reversed.

Macri's election in 2015 marked the first time in a more than a decade that Argentina's center-right opposition successfully unseated the center-left Peronist movement to which Cristina Fernández belongs.

At the time, his victory appeared to signal a clear end to his rival's rule, but he conceded that Sunday's results put him on the defensive.

"This is an election where Argentina has to determine whether it continues on a path of transformation, of deepening democracy, of insertion into the world, of improvement and development — or returns to an authoritarian populist model that has failed in all places where it has been implemented," he said. </s> Argentine President Mauricio Macri and his rivals in the October election launched their campaign ads on local TV on Sunday, targeting undecided voters who will be key to choosing whether his policies remain in place another four years.

Macri’s campaign, which has been hit hard by the country’s economic crisis, highlighted the public works and infrastructure projects started in his administration. “It’s going from abandonment to building a new reality every day,” Macri said in the campaign ad.

Macri’s chief rival, Alberto Fernandez, who is running on a ticket with former leftist president Cristina Fernandez, describes himself as a “conciliatory” politician and “a normal guy.”

 “I’m going to bring order to the chaos they’re leaving us. We have the strength to do it,” Fernandez said in his ad.

Former economy minister Roberto Lavanga is also running, portraying himself as an alternative to Macri and Fernandez and the economic troubles that marked their terms.

 “Only you can put an end to this,” a voiceover in Lavanga’s ad says, showing him walking with his running mate.

If no candidate wins 45% of votes or 40% with a 10-point lead over the runner-up in the Oct. 27 election, a run-off vote between the top two candidates will be held in November. </s> Presidential candidate Alberto Fernandez addresses supporters at the “Frente de Todos” party headquarters after primary elections in Buenos Aires, Argentina, Sunday, Aug. 11, 2019. The “Frente de Todos” presidential ticket with former President Cristina Fernández emerged as the strongest vote-getter in Argentina’s primary elections Sunday, indicating conservative President Mauricio Macri will face an uphill battle going into general elections in October. (AP Photo/Sebastian Pani)

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (AP) — Argentine stocks and currency plummeted on Monday after Argentine President Mauricio Macri was snubbed by voters who appeared to hand a resounding primary victory to a populist ticket with his predecessor, Cristina Fernández.

The preliminary results from Sunday’s voting suggest the conservative Macri will face an uphill battle going into general elections in October and gives the populists who governed Argentina for most of the past two decades a strong chance of returning to power.

About a third of the Argentinian companies that trade in U.S. markets lost half of their value Monday, but losses were extreme across the board.

With 88% of polling stations tallied early Monday, official results gave the presidential slate headed by Alberto Fernández and his vice presidential running mate, Cristina Fernández, about 47% of the votes in a primary vote featuring 10 candidates. Macri and his running mate, Miguel Ángel Pichetto, had 32% — a wide margin that revealed the considerable depth of Macri’s weakness, potentially positioning the Fernández team to win in the first round of a general election voting on Oct. 27.

To be elected president in the first round, candidates need to finish with at least 45% of the votes or have 40% and a greater than 10-point advantage over the nearest rival. If no candidate wins outright in October, there will be a November runoff.

“We’ve had a bad election and that obligates us to redouble our efforts so that in October we will continue with change,” Macri said in a late-night address. “I think it is very important a dialogue continues in this country, and that we continue explaining to the world what it is we want.”

Former Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna trailed far behind the two front-running slates with 8.4% of the votes, which is still potentially enough support to give him a kingmaker role in the fall.

The election functioned largely as a poll for the October vote. All of the parties already had their candidates chosen and the only practical result was to eliminate a few minor parties that got less than 1.5% of the overall votes from upcoming general election.

The pro-business Macri has the support of financial markets and Washington, but has lost popularity amid a deep economic crisis that drove the inflation rate to nearly 50% last year and slashed Argentines’ purchasing power. He says he is taking the necessary, painful steps to get the economy going after 12 years of leftist populism under Cristina Fernández and her predecessor and late husband, Nestor Kirchner.

But the electorate issued a resounding rejection of his handling of the economic situation — and a recent lending package from the International Monetary Fund that totaled upward of $55 billion. Most Argentines blame the IMF for encouraging policies that led to the country’s worst economic crisis in 2001, which resulted in one of every five Argentines being unemployed and millions sliding into poverty.

“It’s clear that Macri’s weakest point is the management of the economy, despite the fact that it has improved in the last three months,” said Mariel Fornoni, director of the political consultancy Management & Fit.

The Fernández ticket, whose two members are not related, contends Macri must be defeated so they can fight the poverty and homelessness that they blame on his policies.

“We always fixed problems that others generated. We are going to do it once again,” said Alberto Fernández, who was Cristina Fernández’s chief of staff during her initial term in 2007-2011.

Cristina Fernández is currently facing a series of trials for corruption during her 2007-2015 administration. She denies the allegations.

In a recorded message from the southern province of Santa Cruz, she said Sunday’s results made her Frente de Todos — Front of All — party “happy and optimistic.”

“But not only because we won an election — This is not a soccer game. Many Argentines understood and understand that things must change in the Republic of Argentina because as we are not living well, we are not OK,” she said.

The possibility that Cristina Fernández could return to power stunned markets.

Grupo Financiero Galicia, a century-old financial services company in Buenos Aires with a market capitalization of $2.5 billion, plunged 60%. All banks were hit hard, but so were companies that do construction or provide vital infrastructure services.

The value of Loma Negra, an industrial services company that makes cement and provides railroad transportation services, tumbled 60% as well. More than 40% of the existing worth of the energy company Transportadora de Gas del Sur disappeared.

Matías Carugati, chief economist for Management & Fit, said the victory of the Fernández team would put “sustained” pressure on the exchange rate and stocks due to the prospect that the South American’s recent free, less state-interventionist course could be reversed.

Macri’s election in 2015 marked the first time in a more than a decade that Argentina’s center-right opposition had unseated the center-left Peronist movement to which Cristina Fernández belongs.

At the time, his victory appeared to signal a clear end to his rival’s rule, but he conceded that Sunday’s results put him on the defensive.

“This is an election where Argentina has to determine whether it continues on a path of transformation, of deepening democracy, of insertion into the world, of improvement and development — or returns to an authoritarian populist model that has failed in all places where it has been implemented,” he said. </s> Presidential candidate Alberto Fernandez addresses supporters at the “Frente de Todos” party headquarters after primary elections in Buenos Aires, Argentina, Sunday, Aug. 11, 2019. The “Frente de Todos” presidential ticket with former President Cristina Fernández emerged as the strongest vote-getter in Argentina’s primary elections Sunday, indicating conservative President Mauricio Macri will face an uphill battle going into general elections in October. (AP Photo/Sebastian Pani)

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (AP) — Argentine stocks and currency plummeted on Monday after Argentine President Mauricio Macri was snubbed by voters who appeared to hand a resounding primary victory to a populist ticket with his predecessor, Cristina Fernández.

The preliminary results from Sunday’s voting suggest the conservative Macri will face an uphill battle going into general elections in October and gives the populists who governed Argentina and butted heads with investors for most of the past two decades a strong chance of returning to power.

The result stunned financial markets which remember Cristina Fernández’s 2007-2015 government when she nationalized Spanish oil company Repsol’s stake in local company YPF, took over the private pension system and intervened heavily in the economy with exports restrictions and currency controls.

About a third of the Argentine companies that trade in U.S. markets lost half of their value Monday, but losses were extreme across the board with the Merval index dropping by 35% in mid-afternoon trading.

With 99% of polling stations tallied early Monday, official results gave the presidential slate headed by Alberto Fernández and his vice presidential running mate, Cristina Fernández, about 48% of the votes in a primary vote featuring 10 candidates. Macri and his running mate, Miguel Ángel Pichetto, had 32% — a wide margin that revealed the depth of Macri’s weakness, potentially positioning the Fernández team to win in the first round of a general election voting on Oct. 27.

To be elected president in the first round, candidates need to finish with at least 45% of the votes or have 40% and a greater than 10-point advantage over the nearest rival. If no candidate wins outright in October, there will be a November runoff.

“We’ve had a bad election and that obliges us to redouble our efforts so that in October we will continue with change,” Macri said in a late-night address. “I think it is very important a dialogue continues in this country, and that we continue explaining to the world what it is we want.”

Former Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna trailed far behind the two front-running slates with 8.4% of the votes, which is still potentially enough support to give him a kingmaker role in the fall.

The election functioned largely as a poll for the October vote. All of the parties already had their candidates chosen and the only practical result was to eliminate a few minor parties that got less than 1.5% of the overall votes from upcoming general election.

The pro-business Macri has the support of financial markets and Washington, but lost popularity amid a deep economic crisis that drove the inflation rate to nearly 50% last year. He says he is taking the necessary, painful steps to get the economy going after 12 years of leftist populism under Cristina Fernández and her predecessor and late husband, Nestor Kirchner.

But his pleas for patience while his economic reforms take affect fell on largely deaf ears as Argentines battle rising poverty and high inflation. A recent lending package from the International Monetary Fund that totaled upward of $55 billion was unpopular. Most Argentines blame the IMF for encouraging policies that led to the country’s worst economic crisis in 2001.

“It’s clear that Macri’s weakest point is the management of the economy, despite the fact that it has improved in the last three months,” said Mariel Fornoni, director of the political consultancy Management & Fit.

The Fernández ticket, whose two members are not related, contends Macri must be defeated so they can fight rising poverty and homelessness.

Alberto Fernández, who was Cristina Fernández’s chief of staff during her initial term in 2007-2011, expressed satisfaction with Sunday’s result and blamed Macri for the current market unrest.

“The markets are uneasy because of the situation created by this government,” Alberto Fernández told Radio 10. “All Argentines will accompany this effort but it is his responsibility.”

Cristina Fernández is currently facing a series of trials for corruption during her 2007-2015 administration. She denies the allegations.

In a recorded message from the southern province of Santa Cruz, she said Sunday’s results made her Frente de Todos — Front of All — party “happy and optimistic.”

“But not only because we won an election. This is not a soccer game. Many Argentines understood and understand that things must change in the Republic of Argentina because as we are not living well, we are not OK,” she said.

The possibility that Cristina Fernández could return to power – if only as vice president – stunned markets.

Grupo Financiero Galicia, a century-old financial services company in Buenos Aires with a market capitalization of $2.5 billion, plunged 60%. All banks were hit hard, but so were companies that do construction or provide infrastructure services.

The value of Loma Negra, an industrial services company that makes cement and provides railroad transportation services, tumbled 60% as well. More than 40% of the existing worth of the energy company Transportadora de Gas del Sur disappeared.

Matías Carugati, chief economist for Management & Fit, said the victory of the Fernández team would put “sustained” pressure on the exchange rate and stocks due to the prospect that the South American’s recent less state-interventionist course could be reversed.

Macri’s election in 2015 marked the first time in a more than a decade that Argentina’s center-right opposition had unseated the center-left Peronist movement to which Cristina Fernández belongs.

At the time, his victory appeared to signal an end to his rival’s rule, but he conceded that Sunday’s results put him on the defensive.

“This is an election where Argentina has to determine whether it continues on a path of transformation, of deepening democracy, of insertion into the world, of improvement and development — or returns to an authoritarian populist model that has failed in all places where it has been implemented,” he said. </s> The country will go to the polls for primary elections on Aug. 11 ahead of the national ballot in October, seen as a referendum on the austerity politics of center-right incumbent President Mauricio Macri amid a tight economic malaise.

The primary covers candidates for president, some provincial governors and national legislators.

The two main presidential candidates – strait-laced conservative Macri and center-left rival Alberto Fernandez – are seen in a tight race to the finish. Fernandez, the moderate Peronist challenger, is expected to come out ahead in the more symbolic primaries.

Argentine voters will choose among 10 presidential candidates, though the main political parties have all already established their runners, making the primaries, known as the PASO, more of a giant poll on how political rivals are faring.

“It’s going to be a rehearsal of the real action, giving key data for the campaigns, for citizens and investors,” said Buenos Aires-based political analyst Sergio Berensztein.

“We’re going to get a lot of insights about voting behavior for the election. Particularly for markets it’s important. If it’s close, there’ll be rally, sovereign bonds etc. If Fernandez wins by a good margin, we might have a sell-off.”

The primaries foreshadow the main general election on Oct. 27 to choose a president, along with senators and deputies who make up the country’s two chambers of Congress. Key positions in Buenos Aires city and province are also on the table.

In order to win the presidency in the first round, a candidate needs at least 45% of the vote or 40% and a difference of 10 percentage points over the second place runner. If there’s no clear winner, voters will return for a run-off on Nov. 24.

Pollsters are split about who would win a head-to-head between Macri and Fernandez. Fernandez with his running mate, ex-President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, is tapping into discontent over the economy in the recession-hit country.

So, who are the main players and what do they stand for?

MAURICIO MACRI, PRESIDENT – The son of one of the most powerful businessmen in Argentina, Macri took the presidency in 2015 with a center-right alliance that said it would shake up the political status quo and right the economy by creating more transparency and opening the country to international markets.

Despite his market-friendly credentials, his popularity with voters has been hit hard, however, by an economic crisis that has seen the peso plunge and annual inflation at above 50%.

MIGUEL ANGEL PICHETTO, VICE PRESIDENT – Pichetto is a long-standing Peronist, who appeared to be in the opposition camp until being confirmed as Macri’s No. 2. The senator should help Macri expand his electoral alliance and marks a strategic shift towards the middle-ground for the president to help take on the rival Fernandez-Fernandez ticket.

MARIA EUGENIA VIDAL, BUENOS AIRES GOVERNOR – Vidal, often seen by Macri’s side on the campaign trail, is a key figure in the election race. One of the most popular politicians with voters, there was talk earlier in the year that the coalition could turn to her as a presidential candidate.

ALBERTO FERNANDEZ, PRESIDENT – A savvy political operator and the former chief of staff for former Presidents Nestor Kirchner and Cristina Fernadez de Kirchner, Fernandez emerged from the shadows to become the unexpected main challenger to Macri in May.

A university law professor and a moderate with the country’s nebulous Peronist political flank, Fernandez is known as a consensus builder who should temper the more divisive style of his higher-profile running mate, ex-President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.

CRISTINA FERNANDEZ DE KIRCHNER, VICE PRESIDENT – The main surprise the elections have thrown up so far is that Fernandez de Kirchner, who ran the country from 2007-2015, is not at the top of the ticket to take on Macri.

The sitting senator, who is loved and despised by voters in near equal measure, is facing court cases linked to allegations of corruption, which she strongly denies. The ex-leader has an ardent core following and commands rock-star crowds at events, including on her current book tour.

However, many in the country – especially from the more affluent middle class – dislike her brand of militant populism and worry that she would have an oversized influence on policy behind the scenes. As president, she rolled out heavy subsidies, higher taxes on farm exports and currency controls.

AXEL KICILLOF, BUENOS AIRES GOVERNOR – The former economy minister under ​​Fernández de Kirchner, Kicillof has a past as a student militant. A professor and researcher of the theories of John Maynard Keynes and Karl Marx, he promoted the nationalization of the Argentine oil company YPF in 2012.

ROBERTO LAVAGNA, PRESIDENT – Lavagna is an economist and was economy minister under Néstor Kirchner, the late husband and predecessor of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. His campaign had looked to capture the votes of those unhappy with Macri and Fernández, but polls show that the “crack” – as the Argentines call the strong polarization between the two main parties – has hit his chances.

JUAN MANUEL URTUBEY, VICE PRESIDENT – The governor of northern Salta, who himself had nurtured ambitions to run for the top job, is a centrist Peronist who had advocated for a more moderate “non-Kirchnerist” opposition to defeat Macri.

EDUARDO BUCCA, BUENOS AIRES GOVERNOR – A doctor and current national deputy, Bucca will fight in the most populous district of the country but with only a slim outside chance of winning, according to the consensus amongst pollsters. </s> Argentina's former President Cristina Fernández has announced her candidacy for vice president in October's general elections.

In a video posted on on Saturday, Fernández said that former cabinet chief Alberto Fernández will lead the ticket.

"I have asked Alberto Fernández to head the formula that we will integrate together, he as a presidential candidate and I as a vice presidential candidate," she said.

Alberto Fernández served as chief of staff from 2003 to 2007 for Fernández's predecessor and late husband, Néstor Kirchner. He remained in that position during a portion of Fernández's term as president from 2007 to 2015.

Alberto Fernández will challenge conservative President Mauricio Macri, who has seen his popularity ratings plummet due to high inflation. </s> (Bloomberg) -- President Mauricio Macri’s chances of winning Argentina’s election this year are improving as public sentiment climbs and the economy begins to find its footing after a currency crisis, according to Alejandro Catterberg, director of Poliarquia, one of the nation’s top pollsters.

“If the social climate keeps improving for four more months, the government’s chances of winning are very high,” Catterberg said in an interview, referring to the Oct. 27 vote. “My gut feeling is that Macri wins, but if I just look at the economic indicators, I say Macri loses.”

Poliarquia does not have a contract with Macri’s government and isn’t working with any presidential campaign but Catterberg shares his polling data with top government officials. Buenos Aires city Mayor Horacio Rodriguez Larreta, one of Macri’s top allies, pays Poliarquia for polling data. He wouldn’t disclose key data, such as voter intention, because he’s contractually obligated to only give those figures to clients.

Macri is benefiting from the economy’s newfound stability although the country remains in recession with unemployment in the double-digits. His approval rating jumped to 34% in June from 28% in May, according to Poliarquia numbers Catterberg was willing to share. That’s still far from the 62% approval rating he enjoyed in November 2017 right after mid-term elections.

Macri’s top opponent is Alberto Fernandez, whose VP candidate is Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, the former populist president from 2007 to 2015. Catterberg says the election has become more polarized in recent months, and that there’s a 30% chance it may be decided in October, most likely with an outright victory by Fernandez in the first round. Only two months ago, Catterberg said, chances of such an outcome were zero.

A first-round victory requires the leading candidate to win over 45% of the votes, or 40% with a lead greater than 10 percentage points over the second-placed candidate. If that’s not the case, the two leading candidates will face each other in a run-off vote on November 24.

From investors’ perspective, Catterberg says the best-case scenario o the Aug. 11 primary vote is that Fernandez receives less than 40% of votes and Macri trails him by less than 5 percentage points.

“I think if that happens the markets -- or people -- are going to believe that it’s a distance that can be overcome in the remainder of the election cycle,” said Catterberg, adding that’s half the distance Macri had to leap in his surprising 2015 victory.

Lower voter participation in the August primaries, as it is usually the case, would likely favor Macri in October, because he is better positioned to capture the support of those less politicized Argentines who only show up on the actual election day.

“The lower the level of participation [in August], the less worse it should be for Macri,” Catterberg said. “I think there’s an understanding in all political parties that if this goes onto a runoff, Macri’s chances are better than those of Kirchner’s party.”

Another possible boost to Macri’s bid should come when long-shot contenders are out of the race. Catterberg expects Macri to get more of those voters in the potential Nov. 24 runoff than Fernandez.

Besides that, Macri has more experience -- he has twice won for Buenos Aires city mayor while Fernandez has never run in a national race, says Catterberg, adding that the president has a more experienced campaign staff with a more effective communication strategy.

With a stable economy, Macri can focus the election narrative on his accomplishments: Infrastructure projects, international credibility, a European Union-Mercosur trade deal and a crackdown on drug trafficking.

Read More: Tears of Joy as Mercosur Leaders Celebrate Historic EU Deal

If Fernandez wins, he’ll face tough choices. Even if he doesn’t want to impose currency or capital controls reminiscent of Kirchner’s presidency, conditions could be so severe that he may have no other choice, Catterberg says.

“If the reaction by markets and Argentines is so immediate, if capital flight is so high, he won’t have another option,” Catterberg said. “Fernandez may not want to re-profile the debt, but if the exchange rate reaches 80 pesos per dollar, you have to re-profile the debt.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Patrick Gillespie in Buenos Aires at pgillespie29@bloomberg.net;Jorgelina do Rosario in Buenos Aires at jdorosario@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Walter Brandimarte at wbrandimarte@bloomberg.net;Juan Pablo Spinetto at jspinetto@bloomberg.net </s> Nicolás Misculin –

 Argentina’s election fever is starting to mount. The country will go to the polls for primary elections on August 11 ahead of the national ballot in October, seen as a referendum on the austerity politics of centre-right incumbent President Mauricio Macri amid a tight economic malaise.

 The primary covers candidates for president, some provincial governors and national legislators.

 The two main presidential candidates — strait-laced conservative Macri and centre-left rival Alberto Fernandez — are seen in a tight race to the finish. Fernandez, the moderate Peronist challenger, is expected to come out ahead in the more symbolic primaries.

 Argentine voters will choose among 10 presidential candidates, though the main political parties have all already established their runners, making the primaries, known as the PASO, more of a giant poll on how political rivals are faring. “It’s going to be a rehearsal of the real action, giving key data for the campaigns, for citizens and investors,” said Buenos Aires-based political analyst Sergio Berensztein.

 “We’re going to get a lot of insights about voting behaviour for the election. Particularly for markets it’s important. If it’s close, there’ll be rally, sovereign bonds etc. If Fernandez wins by a good margin, we might have a sell-off.” The primaries foreshadow the main general election on October 27 to choose a president, along with senators and deputies who make up the country’s two chambers of Congress. Key positions in Buenos Aires city and province are also on the table.

 In order to win the presidency in the first round, a candidate needs at least 45 per cent of the vote or 40 per cent and a difference of 10 percentage points over the second place runner. If there’s no clear winner, voters will return for a run-off on November 24.

 Pollsters are split about who would win a head-to-head between Macri and Fernandez. Fernandez with his running mate, ex-president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, is tapping into discontent over the economy in the recession-hit country.

 So, who are the main players and what do they stand for?

 The son of one of the most powerful businessmen in Argentina, Macri took the presidency in 2015 with a centre-right alliance that said it would shake up the political status quo and right the economy by creating more transparency and opening the country to international markets. Despite his market-friendly credentials, his popularity with voters has been hit hard, however, by an economic crisis that has seen the peso plunge and annual inflation at above 50 per cent.

 Pichetto is a long-standing Peronist, who appeared to be in the opposition camp until being confirmed as Macri’s No 2. The senator should help Macri expand his electoral alliance and marks a strategic shift towards the middle-ground for the president. — Reuters </s> BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) - Argentina’s election primary on Sunday will determine President Mauricio Macri’s chances of winning a second term in October, with the country’s embattled peso currency expected to take a fresh beating next week if the business-friendly leader fares worse than expected.

As the main political parties have already chosen their nominees, Sunday’s vote will serve as a grand opinion poll on Macri’s chances of beating the main challenger, Alberto Fernandez of the left-leaning Peronist party.

The big question is whether Fernandez or Macri can win in the first round of the general election on Oct. 27. To avoid a second-round runoff in November, one candidate would have to clinch at least 45% of the October vote.

“The most important thing on Sunday is to see who passes 40% by the most votes. That’s the candidate most likely to get 45% in October and become president,” said Julio Burdman, a Buenos Aires-based pollster.

Opinion polls show Fernandez in the lead, which is not surprising given the weakness of Argentina’s economy under Macri.

As unhappy as they are about Argentina’s recession and high inflation, business leaders - and many well-to-do voters - say they are more concerned about a possible return to populism and intervention in the markets under the Peronists.

So rich Argentines may get nervous and ditch the peso if Macri performs poorly in Sunday’s primary.

“The potential panickers are middle- and upper-class Argentines, who will sell their pesos if it looks like Fernandez is going to win the presidency. This would pressure the exchange rate,” Burdman said.

The peso has already weakened 17.3% so far this year to 45.6 per U.S. dollar after a 55% swoon against the greenback in 2018.

Fernandez has chosen Argentina’s previous president, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, as his running mate. Both say they want the government to exert more control over the economy.

Kirchner is facing multiple corruption charges, all of which she denies. Critics say she nearly bankrupted the country after years of high deficits and heavy-handed currency controls that scared off investment and spurred capital flight during her two terms as president.

But she remains loved by millions of low-income Argentines who remember generous welfare spending by her administration.

Macri became president in late 2015, promising a new era of sustainable growth. Three and a half years later, the economy is shrinking while 55% inflation makes it harder for poor families to feed themselves.

Polls show Fernandez likely to get up to five percentage points more support than Macri on Sunday.

“If results are in line with expectations, the outlook for the government would be positive, because a small distance between Fernandez and Macri could be reversed between now and October,” said Mariel Fornoni, an analyst at polling firm Management & Fit.

“A more severe defeat for Macri on Sunday would complicate matters going into October, especially because the government would have to contain the market’s loss of confidence,” she said.
Former Chief of the Cabinet of Ministers Alberto Fernández gains a 15% lead over incumbent President Mauricio Macri in Argentina's primaries.