(Reuters) - The risk that Britain will crash out of the EU without an agreement is low but rising, while the likelihood that it will delay Brexit is growing, banking analysts said on Wednesday after mixed messages from votes in parliament.

With two months left until Britain is due by law to leave the EU, lawmakers voted on Tuesday to demand Prime Minister Theresa May seek changes to Britain’s exit treaty, which the EU says cannot be renegotiated.

They also voted to express opposition to a no-deal exit from the EU but rejected a proposal that would delay Brexit if necessary to avert crashing out without a deal.

Some analysts saw these events as raising risks of a no-deal Brexit, though they still assigned a low probability to this outcome. However, belief has grown that the government will have to extend the March 29 deadline for its EU exit.

Accordingly, sterling firmed on Wednesday after falling around 0.7 percent on Tuesday.

For an interactive version of the below chart: tmsnrt.rs/2See2B9.

Below are the views from a selection of investment banks and asset managers:

Raised its estimated probability of no-deal Brexit to 15 percent from 10 percent after the parliament vote. The bank also cut the probability of Brexit not happening at all to 35 percent from 40 percent while leaving chances of a delayed Brexit at 50 percent.

Raised its estimate of the probability of a no-deal Brexit to 15 percent from a 5 percent and recommended taking profit on a long sterling position. However the bank also raised to 50 percent its prediction of the chance of a last-minute ratification of May’s deal, versus its prior view of 30 percent.

It cut the probability of a second referendum to 5 percent from 15 percent.

Kept unchanged its view of a 20 percent chance of a no-deal Brexit and a 35 percent chance of a second Brexit referendum. Advised staying long sterling, noting that Tuesday’s vote had merely “kicked the can down the road”. It sees a delay to the March 29 deadline as “inevitable”.

Maintains its view of a 20 percent chance of no-deal Brexit but sees rising chances that Brexit will be delayed.

Reckons risk of a hard Brexit “by accident” has risen to 30 percent from 20 percent. The bank also now sees a 20 percent chance of no Brexit, down from around 25 percent earlier. It said that in any outcome involving a deal, an extension of the deadline could be necessary.

The only bank surveyed by Reuters on Wednesday to actually cut the probability of no-deal Brexit. It now sees it at 15 percent, down from 20 percent previously, noting lawmakers’ clear appetite for a deal.

Assigns 10-15 percent chance of a no-deal Brexit and has not changed that estimate. Its view is that Tuesday’s parliament vote was a setback rather than the endgame, with lawmakers likely to agree a deal. The bank reckons however that the deadline for leaving will have to be extended.

Says that following Tuesday’s vote, likelihood of no-deal Brexit would be 25-30 percent compared to 20 percent earlier. Sees a delay to the deadline as “a certainty”.

Sees no-deal risk at 10 percent at most and has not changed that probability, predicting that lawmakers will opt to approve a deal rather than risk the damage caused by a disorderly Brexit. </s> Britain’s Parliament voted to avoid an economically disastrous no-deal split from the European Union, opening the door to delaying Brexit and radically re-writing the terms of the divorce.

The House of Commons voted 321 to 278 to reject leaving the EU with no deal and is now expected to seek to delay Brexit in the hope of securing a better deal, which markets would welcome.

Speaking in the Commons, May said Parliament must now face up to the consequences of its decisions. She announced that if a deal can be agreed to in the coming days, she would ask the EU for a short “technical” extension to the March 29 exit day deadline. If there’s no deal, the delay will be much longer, she said.

It is almost three years since Britain voted to cancel its 40-year membership of the EU and with just 16 days to go until exit day, Theresa May’s government has failed to get an agreement that can win the support of Parliament.

The prime minister’s preferred deal, which took two years to negotiate, was resoundingly rejected by the Commons for the second time in a vote on Tuesday night. Now, MPs have decided to avoid leaving the bloc without a deal.

The question is, what kind of deal will Parliament vote for, and how much longer do Britain’s politicians need to make up their minds?

On Wednesday, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, warned that postponing Brexit won’t be straightforward.

“It could be a tactical, a political prolongation,” Barnier told Euronews TV. “In that case, I know the answers and the reaction of the EU side, the EU leaders, the EU Parliament: ‘What for? Why do you need a prolongation? Is it for organizing a new referendum, new elections or not?”’ </s> LONDON — Members of Parliament have voted to reject a no-deal Brexit in a further catastrophic blow to Theresa May's authority.

The House of Commons voted by 312 to 308 to endorse an amendment in the name of Tory MP Caroline Spelman which asked MPs if they opposed the prospect of leaving the European Union without a withdrawal agreement on March 29 under any circumstances.

The government had whipped Tory MPs to oppose the amendment, meaning some ministers who supported it could now be forced to resign.

Victory for the Spelman amendment does not change the law but represents a further significant blow to the authority of the prime minister, who had hoped MPs would instead back her own motion which represented a watered-down version of the plan.

The prime minister had been forced to hold the votes after her Brexit deal was defeated for a second time by a huge margin of 149 House of Commons votes on Tuesday evening.

MPs could now seize greater control of the next stages of Brexit.

There will be a vote on Thursday evening on whether to seek an Article 50 extension, a move which if granted by the EU would delay Brexit beyond March 29, when the UK is currently scheduled to leave. </s> MPs again rejected all options set out in Parliament last night in a series of "indicative votes" aimed at finding a way forward for Brexit.

It was the second time in the space of a week that all alternatives to Theresa May's deal were rejected by Parliament after the Commons took control of the Brexit process following the Prime Minister's three defeats on her plan.

Brexit Secretary Steve Barclay told MPs that the default outcome was now a no-deal Brexit on April 12, but said it was still possible to leave with a deal - and avoid holding European Parliament elections in May - if the Commons approves an agreement this week.

Cabinet will meet today for five hours to try and thrash out a way forward.

Here's how our MPs voted for each of the alternative plans set out last night:

The UK would join the European Free Trade Association and European Economic Area with countries such as Norway, allowing us to remain part of the single market, retaining freedom of movement, so British citizens would keep the right to live and work in the EU and vice-versa.

Former Conservative MP Nick Boles's Common Market 2.0 motion was defeated by 282 votes to 261, majority 21.

Would see the Government to negotiating "a permanent and comprehensive UK-wide customs union with the EU" as part of any Brexit deal.

Would give the UK a closer trading relationship with the EU and reduce the need for some (but not all) checks at the Irish border.

Tory former chancellor Ken Clarke's customs union motion was defeated by 276 votes to 273, majority three.

Gives the public a vote to approve any Brexit deal passed by Parliament, before it can be implemented.

MPs voted by 292 votes to 280, majority 12, to reject Labour MP Peter Kyle's second Brexit referendum motion.

Giving MPs power to block leaving with no-deal by cancelling Brexit if EU won’t grant a further extension beyond 12 April

SNP MP Joanna Cherry's proposal saw 191 votes for, 292 against, defeated by a majority 101 </s> Following months of political wrangling, MPs will finally decide whether or not to approve Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit plan in what has been called the “meaningful vote”. Mrs May has so far failed to convince large members of politicians, including Conservative Party members, of her vision for the EU Withdrawal Agreement The stakes for tomorrow’s vote were raised further after a European Court of Justice (ECJ) ruling this morning said the UK can now cancel Brexit without requiring permission from the rest of the European Union (EU). A 27-judge panel ruled shortly after 8am: “The United Kingdom is free to revoke unilaterally the notification of its intention to withdraw from the EU."

This means if politicians reject Mrs May’s deal tomorrow, Labour could try to push for a general election or a second referendum on Brexit. What time is Brexit vote on 11th December 2018? Six amendments on Brexit are scheduled to start at 7pm on Tuesday, December 11, with the "meaningful vote" following. A House of Commons spokesman told Express.co.uk a result on the “meaningful vote” on Brexit could be expected at about 8.30pm. The vote is the common name given to Section 13 of the UK’s European Union Withdrawal Act 2018, which puts into law that the deal must be approved first by Parliament. READ MORE: BREXIT LIVE: HOW THERESA MAY COULD BE SAVED FROM DISASTER BY BENN’S NO-DEAL AMENDMENT

If the vote is passed, the draft deal will still need to be put to the House of Lords for approval. But if MPs go against it, the government will get a second chance to try to push it through a few days later. Labour has already said it opposes Mrs May’s deal and is likely to call a general election straight away. They will need the support of 100 opposition members to do so - a difficult proposition.

A second referendum is much more likely although Brexiteers are hugely opposed to this being put on the table. Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt earlier warned British lawmakers there would be “real risks” if they vote down Theresa May’s deal tomorrow. Although he said Mrs May was not happy with all the conditions, including the controversial backstop arrangement, it remained the only viable option. Mr Hunt said: “(But) it gives the vast majority of things that people voted for and there are real risks if we don't grab this opportunity while we have it.” </s> The most important House of Commons vote in decades is being held on Tuesday 15 January.

MPs are deciding whether to accept or reject the 585-page Brexit deal the UK has signed with Brussels.

It's widely expected the deal will be voted down, which raises the question of what happens next.

Despite Westminster war-gaming obsessively for months, no one really knows how it will pan out.

However, there are some things we know will happen, some that could well happen, and some outside choices.

Here's what we know.

When is the Brexit vote?

MPs are holding a 'meaningful vote' on the Brexit deal from 7pm on Tuesday 15 January in the House of Commons.

It comes after five days of debate, closed by a speech from Theresa May herself.

The vote will be after 7pm, and could be some hours later, because amendments have to be voted on first.

What does the Brexit meaningful vote mean?

MPs are deciding whether to approve a Brexit 'withdrawal agreement' between the UK and the EU.

The deal ensures there is no cliff-edge on March 29 by carrying on EU rules in a "transition period" to December 2020.

It also commits the UK to paying a £39billion divorce bill in return for guaranteeing we won't be locked out of EU arrangements.

However, there is still no solution to avoid customs checks between Northern Ireland (in the UK) and the Republic (in the EU) after 2020.

So the deal includes a 'backstop' clause that, if there's still no solution by 2021, will trap the UK under EU customs rules. This will stop us signing trade deals with the rest of the world.

Will Theresa May win the Brexit vote?

More than 100 Tory MPs, and the Tories' 10 DUP allies, said before Christmas they would vote against the deal.

Because of this, the deal was delayed in order to win more concessions from the EU.

But most MPs refused to change their mind because the EU refused to reopen the actual deal. Instead Brussels only gave "assurances" around the deal that critics said weren't enough.

What happens next if Theresa May loses the Brexit vote?

Some or all of these options will happen if Theresa May loses the Brexit vote.

No Deal planning will be ramped up - and ministers will quit

Billions of pounds have already been spent on No Deal planning - and you can expect billions more.

This includes turning the M20 motorway into a lorry park and spending £100million to boost ferry capacity across the Channel.

A chunk of Acts of Parliament, plus more than 500 'secondary' emergency laws, will need to be rushed through Parliament.

Thousands of extra border officers and Home Office officials are being hired to deal with extra paperwork.

Several Tory ministers are expected to quit the government if No Deal Brexit starts looking inevitable.

Theresa May will be forced to reveal her Plan B

The Prime Minister is expected to make a statement on the night if she loses the vote.

Her spokesman insisted she would move "quickly and provide certainty on the way forward" if the vote is lost.

By law she will be forced to come back to Parliament with a formal Plan B within three sitting days - so on Monday 21 January.

She must make a statement on the government's next steps.

After another seven sitting days - so by Thursday 31 January - MPs get a vote on those next steps. However, the vote may not actually have any legal effect.

She might force MPs to vote "again and again"

Theresa May previously refused to rule out holding the vote on her Brexit deal "again and again and again" if she loses.

She even refused to rule out holding the vote 30 times.

That is despite her warning a second referendum on Brexit would damage trust in democracy.

Technically there is nothing in law to stop her putting similar questions to Parliament to get the right answer. But MPs warned it would be a breach of vital parliamentary convention.

Labour is set to trigger a no confidence vote

Labour says it will force a no confidence vote in the government at some point after a defeat on January 15.

Shadow Cabinet ministers said it would come "immediately", but sources close to Jeremy Corbyn were more coy about the timing.

There is a huge hurdle to Labour winning a no confidence vote.

The DUP - whose 10 MPs are crucial to victory for both sides - has said it won't back a no-confidence vote unless the Brexit deal passes. But Labour are intending a no confidence vote if it fails.

So the best Labour can hope for might be for the DUP to abstain - in other words, not to back either side.

If Labour does win a no confidence vote, it triggers a 14-day countdown clock.

And if no one can command a Commons majority within 14 days...

We could have a snap general election

A general election is triggered automatically if no party can win the Commons' confidence within two weeks.

That could throw us into a campaign and vote on March 7 at the earliest - just weeks before we leave the EU.

A new government would open up a whole new flowchart of possibilities, which we won't get into properly here.

But it could well involve delaying Brexit and trying to renegotiate, especially if Labour takes power.

Remain MPs will push for a second EU referendum

Remain-backers have already been pushing for a second EU referendum, and those calls will only grow.

There is no majority for it in the House of Commons yet.

But Jeremy Corbyn is facing pressure to back it from more of his members in the Labour Party.

He has promised to leave it as an "option on the table" - in his view, a last resort - if the deal is voted down.

However, the exact path to a second referendum still isn't clear. And most say it couldn't be arranged in time before March 29.

The date of Brexit could be delayed - or cancelled

Britain could extend the 29 March date of Brexit - if the EU agrees to as well.

There would need to be a concrete reason to do this, and it'd probably be a short extension.

Also, the EU is holding its Parliamentary elections at the end of May, which would get in the way - badly.

Alternatively, Brexit can be cancelled without the EU's permission by revoking our notification to leave under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.

But while this is legally possible, don't expect it to happen under a Tory government any time soon.

MPs will try to block a No Deal Brexit

Pretty much the only thing MPs agree on is they don't want a No Deal Brexit.

So expect them to pull out every trick (and amendment) in the book to try and block it in Parliament.

Government minister Chris Heaton-Harris insisted there isn't a way to block No Deal. And that's true in the sense that No Deal is the default option, written into law.

But MPs won an amendment that will force the government to seek approval for No Deal spending. In theory, MPs could try and use this to block it from happening.

Theresa May could resign - and force a Tory leadership race

Theresa May could, in theory, be forced to quit by the "men in grey suits" of her Cabinet.

In this case, a new leader would take perhaps a month or two to choose.

First MPs would narrow the candidates down to two; then the 100,000 or so Tory members would vote between the final picks.

The winner would become Prime Minister, without needing to call a general election, and could take Brexit in a dramatically different direction.

Cabinet ministers could force Britain to choose another option

If Theresa May faces undeniable pressure from within, or there's a new leader, there could be a new option for Brexit.

Ones that have been mentioned include the much-discussed Norway option, staying in the European Economic Area.

Remainers are largely in favour but Brexiteers say it would tie our hands and keep us bound to the EU.

And if none of that comes to anything?

We leave on 29 March 2019 with no deal. </s> LONDON (Reuters) - Lawmakers (MPs) will on Tuesday debate and vote on British Prime Minister Theresa May’s response to the overwhelming rejection of her Brexit plan earlier this month.

The vote is not a rerun of the Jan. 15 vote on whether to approve the exit deal she had negotiated with the European Union, which she lost by 432 to 202.

Instead, Tuesday is a chance to discover what sort of changes to her strategy would be required to win the support of parliament, so May can try to renegotiate the deal in Brussels and then ask MPs to approve it.

May has said she wants to secure concessions relating to the border with Northern Ireland in order to win the support of pro-Brexit MPs in her own party and the small Northern Irish party which props up her government, who voted against her deal.

Some MPs want to shift control of the process away from government and give parliament the chance to define Brexit. If successful, this could have a profound effect, giving MPs who want to block, delay or renegotiate Brexit a possible legal route to do so.

Other MPs have proposed alternatives to May’s deal in order to gauge support for them and persuade the prime minister to change course by seeking closer EU ties or holding a second referendum on leaving.

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

MPs are officially discussing a bland statement saying they have debated May’s next steps. But, using a parliamentary device known as an amendment, some hope to turn it into something that will persuade or force May into taking a different path.

So far 14 amendments have been put forward. The Speaker, John Bercow, will announce at around 1300 GMT on Tuesday which of these have been selected for debate and a vote.

Voting on these amendments will take place one by one from 1900 GMT. Each vote takes around 15 minutes and the result is read out in parliament.

Once voting on all amendments has taken place, a vote is held to give final approval to the wording of the statement. This final statement does not automatically dictate government policy.

This seeks to shift control of Brexit from May’s government to parliament by demanding that on Feb. 5, the rule that government business takes precedence in parliament is overturned.

Providing it has the support of 10 MPs from at least four political parties, it makes time for a piece of legislation giving May until Feb. 26 to get a deal approved by parliament.

If not, parliament would be given a vote on asking the EU for a postponement of the Article 50 deadline to prevent Britain leaving without a deal on March 29. It proposes a nine-month extension to Dec. 31.

Put forward by Labour lawmaker Yvette Cooper, this plan has a strong chance of succeeding as the opposition Labour Party has said it is likely to back it and it is supported by several of May’s Conservatives.

Supported by Graham Brady, chairman of the influential 1922 Committee of Conservative MPs, it calls for the backstop to be replaced with alternative arrangements to avoid a hard border in Ireland and says parliament would support May’s Brexit deal if this change were made.

This amendment is potentially useful to the government if passed because it would show the EU there is popular support in parliament for her attempt to renegotiate.

This has been proposed by Conservative lawmaker Dominic Grieve and has a chance of succeeding as it is supported by MPs from several parties.

It demands that, one day a week in February and March, the rule that government business takes precedence in parliament is overturned, giving MPs the opportunity to propose their own debates on Brexit. Any proposals approved by parliament on those days would not be binding on the government but would be politically difficult to ignore.

Proposed by opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, it calls for parliament to consider alternative options to prevent Britain leaving without a deal, including seeking a permanent customs union with the EU and holding a second referendum.

This is unlikely to be approved as pro-EU MPs in May’s Conservative Party have indicated they will not rebel against their leader by supporting it.

Several Labour MPs and the pro-EU Liberal Democrats have proposed changes to this amendment so that it would call only for parliament to vote on holding a second referendum and that remaining in the EU should be an option in that referendum.

OTHER AMENDMENTS THAT COULD BE VOTED UPON:

Proposed by Liberal Democrat leader Vince Cable and his MPs, it calls on the government to rule out a no-deal exit and prepare for a second referendum in which the option to remain in the EU would be on the ballot paper.

Proposed by Liberal Democrat lawmaker Tom Brake, it demands that a committee of no more than 17 MPs from across political parties be created and given control of the parliamentary Brexit process.

Proposed by Conservative lawmaker Andrew Murrison and supported by many Conservatives, it calls for Britain’s exit deal with Brussels to be changed to add an expiry date to the Northern Irish backstop of Dec. 31, 2021.

This has been put forward by Labour lawmaker Hilary Benn, who chairs parliament’s Brexit select committee. It calls on the government to hold indicative votes on the following options:

1) Holding another vote in parliament on May’s deal

2) Leaving with no deal on March 29

3) Calling on the government to renegotiate May’s deal

Put forward by a group of Labour MPs, this calls on the government to request an extension to the Article 50 deadline so that a ‘Citizen’s Assembly’ of 250 people can be created to consider the way forward and make recommendations to parliament within 10 weeks of being set up.

Put forward by Conservative lawmaker Caroline Spelman and supported by MPs from most political parties, it seeks to rule out a no-deal Brexit.

Proposed by MPs from Labour, May’s Conservative Party and the Liberal Democrats, this calls on the government to request an extension to the Article 50 deadline if a deal has not been approved by Feb. 26.

This amendment, put forward by Conservative lawmaker John Baron, calls on parliament to reject any Brexit deal which includes a Northern Ireland backstop.

Also proposed by Baron, it states that parliament will not approve a Brexit deal which includes a Northern Ireland backstop lasting any longer than six months.

Also put forward by Baron, it calls for parliament to reject any Brexit deal that does not give Britain a unilateral right to terminate the Northern Ireland backstop. </s> MPs have once again rejected a series of alternative Brexit plans as four options failed to get a majority in the Commons.

A proposal from Tory grandee Ken Clarke for a customs union arrangement with the EU was rejected by only three votes, while a demand for a second referendum was defeated by 12 and a Norway-style deal beaten by 21.

A fourth option, which called for Article 50 to be revoked if a deal could not be agreed and MPs rejected leaving without a deal, went down by 191 votes to 292.

To find out how your MP voted, put their name into the search field below. If you don't know your MP's name, you can also search by constituency.

Mr Clarke's motion demanding the UK form a customs union with the EU came closest to passing, garnering 273 votes, with 276 MPs casting ballots the other way.

Nick Boles' motion calling for a Common Market 2.0 - a plan for close engagement with the EU after Brexit along the lines of Norway's relationship with the bloc - got 261 votes in favour, with 282 ballots against.

Mr Boles declared that he would no longer sit as a Conservative MP after the defeat.

A motion calling for a second referendum on any Brexit deal passed by parliament gained the highest number of votes in favour - 280 - but 292 MPs voted against it.

The motion with the heaviest defeat margin called for Article 50 to be revoked in the event that a deal could not be agreed and MPs rejected leaving without a deal, which went down by 191 votes to 292.

Click on the links below to find out how your MP voted on previous Brexit debates. </s> British Prime Minister Theresa May suffered an early defeat to her Brexit plans on Wednesday when members of parliament demanded the government come up with a plan B.

The parliament demanded the alternative plan should be submitted within days if she loses a vote on her deal to leave the EU.

It is less than three months before Britain is due to leave the EU.

The parliament began a five-day battle over May’s Brexit plan with a show of force – undermining her preferred timetable if MPs vote down her deal on Tuesday.

May has refused to retreat from her unpopular deal, which envisages close trading ties with the EU after leaving in March.

She also prefer to press ahead with the vote that she looks set to lose after failing to win over her nominal Northern Irish allies.

Losing the vote would deepen the uncertainty over the future of Brexit, Britain’s biggest shift in foreign and trade policy for more than 40 years.

The possible loss could open the way for several different outcomes, ranging from a disorderly exit to another referendum.

MPs voted 308-297 in favour of demanding the government come up with an alternative plan within three working days after Tuesday’s vote, rather than a planned 21-day limit.

It was a largely symbolic vote aimed at putting pressure on the government.

There were turbulent scenes in parliament when some in May’s Conservative Party accused the speaker of bias.

May’s spokesman said the government’s advice was that parliament could not change its so-called business motion.

The motion sets out the procedure for the Brexit vote, but played down the impact of the vote for its overall plans.

“We are doing everything we can to win the meaningful vote that happens on Tuesday,” the spokesman said.

“But it is also the intention, if that were not to take place that we respond quickly to provide certainty on the way forward following that vote.”

Combined with a vote late on Tuesday when the government lost on the finance bill, the defeats underline May’s precarious position in parliament and the difficult she will have in winning approval for her Brexit deal.

The opposition Labour Party has said that it will immediately table a vote of no confidence in the government if May loses the vote.

With the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit rising, the EU is looking at how Brexit might be postponed.

Pro-EU campaigners are testing ways Britain could hold another referendum after voters narrowly backed leaving in 2016.

Britain is due to leave the EU on March 29, at 2300 GMT.

The government needs 318 votes to get a deal through the 650-seat House of Commons, as seven members of Irish nationalist party Sinn Fein do not sit, four speakers and deputy speakers do not vote and the four tellers are not counted.
The UK's parliament votes against a no-deal Brexit. This greatly increases the chance of a delayed Brexit, to be voted on Thursday, as well as opening the door to the possibility of a second referendum.