Russia 'very likely' to meddle in European Parliament elections, warns Estonia spy chief

Russia 'very likely' to meddle in European Parliament elections, warns Estonia spy chief

The EU parliament is a 'considerable target for Russian influence operations', says Estonia

The Kremlin will "very likely" try to intervene in European parliamentary elections this May to help pro-Russia and anti-EU politicians win seats, Estonia's equivalent of MI6 has warned.

The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service said President Putin's goal is to undermine unity with the European Union "by sowing disorder and disbelief" within and between the 28 - soon to be 27 - member states.

The comments came in an annual security report that also said Russia's secret security services are still carrying out hostile activity in cyber space despite the exposure of Russian military cyber operations in the wake of last year's Salisbury spy poisoning.

Estonia also warned that Russia is continuing a build-up of conventional military forces along its western border.

"This shows that in the prioritised western direction, the Russian armed forces are preparing for a possible war along a wide front," the report said.

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Mikk Marran, director general of the Estonian spy agency, said countries in the European Union and NATO are not fully protected from Russia's "aggressive activities".

Image: Mr Marran says Russia works on the principle that 'the end justifies the means'

"Russia continues to develop and train its armed forces for a large-scale war against NATO," he wrote in a foreword to the report.

"Even though the likelihood of a worst-case scenario is slim, surprises arranged by its authoritarian regime cannot be excluded."

Mr Marran highlighted the threat posed to Western countries by Russian influence operations, designed to amplify divisions on issues such as EU sanctions against Moscow.

"To achieve that, Russia is prepared to get involved in other countries' domestic policy," the spy chief said.

"The issue of influence activities deserves particular attention this year, as EU member states are going to elect representatives to the European Parliament."

Estonia, one of three Baltic states, is a member of the EU and of NATO and has close ties with the UK.

Image: European Parliament elections will be held in May

Hundreds of British troops are based in Estonia as part of a NATO operation to deter the threat of Russian aggression along the alliance's eastern flank.

The nation shares a border with Russia and has deep expertise in its much larger neighbour's activities.

EU member states are due to go to the polls between 23 and 26 May to elect new members of the European Parliament (MEPs) for a new five-year term.

The Estonian report said: "The Kremlin is very likely to try to intervene in the European Parliament elections to secure as many seats as possible for pro-Russian or euro-sceptical political forces."

It continued: "The parliament as the only EU institution elected directly by the people is a considerable target for Russian influence operations."

Image: Facebook and Twitter are used by Russia to spread false information, the report says

The spy service said the Kremlin would be likely to focus on larger member states Germany, France and Italy - which comprise about one third of all MEPs - for its intervention efforts.

These are countries "where some of the political parties have clearly expressed support to the current Kremlin policies towards the West", the report said.

"Russia's previous interference in Western elections has shown that it acts on the principle of 'the end justifies the means'," it said.

Russian support for candidates and parties comes in a variety of different forms, the spy agency report said.

They include positive coverage by Russian-controlled media; organising high-level meetings and visits that attract media attention; offering covert financial assistance; discrediting opponents by stealing and leaking internal information, as well as spreading false information on platforms such as Facebook and Twitter.

Anti-EU and pro-Russian politicians and parties have not so far been able to create an effective umbrella organisation in the EU or European Parliament faction because of differing domestic interests, according to the report.

"But this may change if the election results are favourable," it said.

"Considering the security threat posed by Russia for many European countries it would be an additional risk to have a group of MEPs who intentionally promote Kremlin's policies."

If Russian influence operations fall short of creating such a group, the spy agency warned that Moscow would approach and use right-wing, populist circles.

Image: President Putin has denied that his country meddled in the US presidential election

"It has previously done the same with the political associations that the Kremlin sees as its potential allies," the report said, citing Russia using politicians from the Alternative for Germany party and Italy's Lega, who have pushed for the EU to lift sanctions on Moscow.

The report did not mention the UK or Brexit in the section about Russia's interest in European Union politics.

The EU parliamentary system is set up to enable the inclusion of small and marginal political parties, while typically low turnout makes it more likely that stronger-motivated political forces bring their supporters to the ballot boxes, the report said.

"Russia can use a smaller but concentrated effort to mobilise an electorate that meets its needs," it said.

MEPs can be used as spokespeople for propaganda in Russia, according to the 70-page report, entitled International Security and Estonia 2019.

"Russia has attempted to influence the EU's decision-making processes through elected members of parliament, used the parliament as a propaganda platform, and achieved direct contact with European politicians," it said.

The report noted that some MEPs have spread the view that sanctions against Russia since the start of Moscow's annexation of Crimea have had no impact on Russia, are harmful only to EU member states themselves, and only serve the interest of the US. </s> WASHINGTON — In 2019 Russia will likely try to influence the European Parliament elections, continue intelligence and influence operations against the West, and keep preparing for armed conflict with NATO, according to the latest annual threat assessment produced by the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service.

NBC News obtained an exclusive preview of the 70-page report, which provides a window into the activity and goals of the Russian intelligence services from next door in Estonia.

Russia will target the May 2019 European Parliamentary elections, the report says, with a likely focus on the larger member states — Germany, France, and Italy — where it can hope to have the most influence on the composition of the EU Parliament, whose members are elected for five-year terms.

"Russia is very likely to try to intervene in the European Parliament elections to secure as many seats as possible for pro-Russian or eurosceptical political forces," writes the report's author Mikk Marran, director general of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service.

Click here to read the report

The report says Russian intelligence services will continue the extensive cyber espionage campaign against the West that they have pursued for years, with the military intelligence service, called the GRU, and Russia's spy agency, the Federal Security Service (FSB) directing most operations.

Cyber espionage groups APT28 and Sandworm are the most active of the Russian-backed groups, usually exploiting simple online tools and tactics, like phishing campaigns and "most likely to blur the line between clearly state-sponsored attacks and the activities of online activists and profiteering cyber criminals," the report says.

SNAKE APT, a group tied to the FSB, operates more covertly, according to the report. "Most cyber and information operations originating from Russia are led by the special services, particularly the FSB and GRU," who often enlist cyber criminals to do the work for them.

According to the report, Russian intelligence and special services use human, cyber, and signals intelligence — electronic and radio signals — to gather information, including tapping into civilian communication services inside and outside the country.

"All Russian communications service providers are required to give the FSB access their networks and information," says the report. Russian authorities force service providers operating in Russia to disclose their decryption keys, while the FSB works to decrypt communications from foreign service providers.

The report also tracks Russia's military activities. Last year, says the report, the Russian military expanded its military build-up along the western border, placing seven new maneuver regiments less than 50 km from the border.

Most units are based near Ukraine and Belarus, but one division, the Pskov Air Assault Division, near the Estonian border "became the first division of Russian Airborne Troops to be reinforced with a third regiment."

"Russian armed forces are preparing for a possible war along a wide front," the report says.

Analyzing Russia's most recent exercises, the report finds that "Russian armed forces are consistently practicing for an extensive military conflict with NATO." Leadership in Russia fears the spread of democracy and Russian armed forces leaders believe a military conflict with NATO will be sparked by a "colored revolution" in one of Russia's neighboring countries, in other words Western intelligence services encouraging democratic uprisings.

If crisis breaks out, Russia is most likely to attack the Baltic states first, but a conflict between Russia and NATO would involve attacks on Western Europe, says the report.

Vladimir Putin continues to focus attention on Belarus and moving both the leadership and population closer to Russia and away from any western influences, according to the report. "If anything unexpected should happen to President Alyaksandr Lukashenka personally or to his regime, there will be a great risk of swift military action by Russia to prevent Belarus from becoming a pro-Western democracy," the report finds.

A new trend identified by the report is the Russian state enlisting civilian ships and vessels to carry out activities on behalf of the government. The report identities "provocative behavior" of Russian civilian ships, including entering territorial waters without permission and carrying out research on a nation's submarine communication's networks. Shipowners and crews must at all times be ready to perform national assignments, regardless of geographical location, the report warns.

"The Russian civilian fleet and its activities are a potential security threat," it says. "More attention should be paid to Russian civilian vessels sailing under the Russian flag." </s> Russia has sent a dire warning to fifteen countries over the Salisbury attack

Yesterday Russia lost a vote in the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) after demanding access to the details of the Sergei Skripal investigation.

Today Russian Ambassador Alexander Yakovenko listed out the 15 countries who voted against allowing Russia access, and accused them of voting “against transparency”.

In a thinly-veiled warning, he said: “They voted against access to full and fair information.”

He said: “It was quite an interesting result. Fifteen countries voted against that decision - against transparency.

“This is mostly the countries of the EU and NATO. We’re talking about Poland, Slovakia, Spain, Switzerland, UK, US, Australia, Belgium, Estonia, France, Germany, Italy and a few more, two countries more who are not part of NATO.”

He claimed the UK had misled the world and most countries did not support Mrs May. </s> he U.S. government for the first time on Friday formally accused Russia of a campaign of cyber attacks against Democratic Party organizations ahead of the Nov. 8 presidential election.

"We believe, based on the scope and sensitivity of these efforts, that only Russia's senior-most officials could have authorized these activities," a U.S. government statement said on Friday about hacking of political groups.

"These thefts and disclosures are intended to interfere with the U.S. election process."

U.S. intelligence officials concluded weeks ago that the Russian government was conducting or orchestrating cyber attacks against the Democratic National Committee and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, possibly to disrupt or discredit the election, in which Democrat Hillary Clinton faces Republican Donald Trump.

A Kremlin spokesman called the U.S. allegations "nonsense", the Interfax news agency reported.

On Saturday, the Russian Foreign Ministry said the U.S. accusations lacked any proof and were an attempt by Washington to fan "unprecedented anti-Russian hysteria".

"This whipping up of emotions regarding 'Russian hackers' is used in the U.S. election campaign, and the current U.S. administration, taking part in this fight, is not averse to using dirty tricks," Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on Saturday in comments posted on the ministry's website.

The Obama administration's decision to blame Russia for the attacks is the latest downward turn in U.S. relations with Moscow, which are under strain over Russia's actions in Syria and Ukraine and in cyberspace.

Also on Friday, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Russian and Syrian actions in the Syrian civil war, including bombings of hospitals, "beg for" a war crimes investigation.

In addition, a U.S. intelligence official said on Friday that Russia was moving short-range nuclear-capable missiles into Kaliningrad, a tiny Russian enclave between Poland and Lithuania, confirming Estonian news reports. </s> Prime Minister Jüri Ratas said in Brussels on Thursday that the European Council meeting may also discuss new sanctions against Russia related to the poisoning of a former Russian intelligence officer and double agent recently carried out in the United Kingdom.

"I believe that these debates may be on the table today," Ratas said. "I sincerely hope that the European Council will adopt a joint and strong position on this issue today," he added.

"We fully condemn the poisoning attack. We trust our partners, we trust the information that the United Kingdom give us," Ratas said.

Ratas pointed out that he decided to call off his visit to Russia planned as part of the celebrations of the 100th anniversary of the Republic of Estonia due to recent international tensions in connection with the poisoning of former Russian intelligence officer Sergei Skripal. Ratas would have attended a cultural event of the Estonian community in the Russian city of Krasnoyarsk.

President of the European Council Donald Tusk said in his invitation to the heads of government that following the Salisbury attack, the union should not only express its full solidarity with the United Kingdom, but also draw "operational conclusions."

"I therefore propose we strengthen our resilience to chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear-related risks, including through closer cooperation among the EU institutions, our member states, and NATO. We should also continue to bolster our capabilities to address hybrid threats, including in the areas of cyber, strategic communication and counter-intelligence," Tusk said.

Former Russian military intelligence officer Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia were poisoned with a nerve agent in Salisbury, United Kingdom, on March 4. Both are still in hospital in critical condition. Skripal is a British citizen, his daughter a Russian citizen.

According to the British government, all signs point to the involvement of Moscow in the poisoning, and the Russian government has refused to clarify how the use of Novichok, a nerve agent developed for military purposes in the Soviet Union, was possible in the United Kingdom. The British government has said that Russia had the ability, motive, and will to commit the attack.

Prime Minister Theresa May appealed to the solidarity of EU members following the Salisbury attack. She said in Brussels on Thursday that the "Russian threat does not respect borders."

"It is clear that the Russian threat does not respect borders, and that indeed the incident in Salisbury was part of a pattern of Russian aggression against Europe and its near neighbors," May said in her doorstep statement to journalists.

Following the incident, the UK expelled 23 Russian diplomats and their family members, altogether some 80 people. High-level contacts with Moscow were suspended. </s> WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States has launched a cyber campaign aimed at Russian operatives in an effort to curb misinformation ahead of the Nov. 6 congressional elections, the New York Times reported on Tuesday, in what it said was the first known such operation to protect American elections.

The Times, citing unnamed defense officials briefed on the operation, said the US Cyber Command, the military's cyber warfare division, was using direct messages to target individuals behind influence campaigns in an effort to deter them from spreading propaganda and fake information.

While the United States was not directly threatening any individuals, its previous sanctions and indictments could help deter the Russian operatives once they realized they had been identified, according to the Times report.

US intelligence agencies have concluded that Kremlin-backed entities meddled in the 2016 presidential election campaign to try to boost Republican candidate Donald Trump, an accusation Moscow has repeatedly denied. Intelligence officials have said that Moscow remains a threat to US elections.

On Friday, the US government unveiled what one official said was the first criminal charges linked to attempted interference in next month's midterm elections. Elena Alekseevna Khusyaynova, a 44-year-old Russian national, was charged with playing a key financial role in a Kremlin-backed plan to conduct "information warfare" against the United States, including ongoing attempts to influence American voters.

The Times said the protective operation included missions taken in recent days, but has been limited in part to prevent Moscow from escalating its response beyond election-related actions that could target the US power grid or other targets.

US Cyber Command has also sent teams to Europe in an effort to help allies fight Russian intrusions, officials told the Times.

Reuters could not immediately confirm the Times report, and representatives for the Pentagon did not immediately reply to a request for comment.

US national security adviser John Bolton, in Moscow for meetings this week, told Russian officials on Monday that its election meddling sowed distrust.

More than a dozen Russians and three Russian entities have been indicted as part of a US investigation into the 2016 interference and possible collusion by Trump's campaign, including 12 Russian intelligence officers and a St. Petersburg-based group known for its trolling on social media. </s> MOSCOW: Russia on Friday accused Britain of trying to force its allies to take “confrontational steps” after EU member states decided to recall the bloc’s envoy from Moscow and mulled further diplomatic action over a nerve attack row.

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov slammed Britain for garnering EU support over the poisoning of a former double agent, suggesting that London’s focus was now on making “the crisis with Russia as deep as possible”.

At a summit in Brussels, EU leaders united behind British Prime Minister Theresa May in blaming Russia for the nerve agent attack on former spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter in England, and agreed to recall their ambassador to Moscow for consultations.

EU states are now considering whether to follow Britain’s lead in expelling Russian diplomats and Latvia said Friday it would expel “one or several” Russian diplomats.“As for the decision taken, we regret in this context that again such decisions are taken using the wording ‘highly likely’,” President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.

“We don’t agree with this and we repeat again that Russia absolutely definitely has nothing to do with the Skripal case.”Russia’s top diplomat Lavrov for his part slammed Britain for “feverishly trying to force allies to take confrontational steps”.

“We still do not see any facts,” state news agency RIA Novosti quoted him as saying on a visit to Hanoi. “The absence of which makes one think that all of this is a provocation, the investigation has not even been finished yet.”

In a televised address, Putin thanked Russians for giving him the “highest level of support in the history of our country” in Sunday’s elections and urged the nation to come together amid the “difficult internal and external challenges we face.”

May had pressed the importance of a united response to the March 4 poisoning and the EU leaders in Brussels offered her their full support, agreeing in a statement “that it is highly likely that the Russian Federation is responsible and that there is no plausible alternative explanation”.

The Skripals are both in a coma after being found collapsed on a park bench, although a policeman who was also contaminated was released from hospital on Thursday. The Kremlin has angrily rejected Britain’s claims and Russian officials have offered numerous alternative explanations, including that London directed the attack itself or that Washington may have been involved.

Britain expelled 23 Russian diplomats they said were spies, and Russia responded in kind, also halting the activities of the British Council cultural and educational organisation.Earlier Friday, British diplomats left their Moscow mission in several minibuses and the remaining diplomatic staff sent them off with a round of applause, Russian television showed. </s> The European Union says it will not recognize what it described as "so-called 'elections'" conducted on March 12 by Russia-backed separatists who control Georgia's Abkhazia region.

Maja Kocijancic, spokeswoman for EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini, said on March 13 that the EU "supports the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Georgia, as recognized by international law."

She added that "the European Union does not recognize the constitutional and legal framework in which these elections have taken place."

The United States also does not recognize elections in Abkhazia.

The Georgian Foreign Ministry has also condemned the legislative voting, calling it "yet another attempt to legitimize the ethnic purge, military intervention, occupation, and results of Russian aggression being carried out against Georgian statehood."

Abkhazia broke from central government control in a 1992-93 war. Russia recognized Abkhazia and breakaway South Ossetia as independent countries after fighting a five-day war against Tbilisi in 2008 and maintains thousands of troops in the two regions.

The election commission in Abkhazia's de facto government said on March 13 that 12 candidates won mandates in the 35-seat legislature in the first round and that runoff votes would be held in 22 other electoral districts in two weeks.

In one district, the election was voided due to ballot irregularities and a new vote will be held in two months.

With reporting by civil.ge, apsny.ge, Interfax, and TASS </s> BRUSSELS - Britain is asking other European states to crack down together on Russian spy networks that could be preparing similar attacks to the nerve agent assault on a former Russian spy in England, diplomats said.

Britain’s Prime Minister Theresa May will urge “coordinated action” among European Union states at a summit in Brussels on Thursday, where she would try to persuade the bloc’s leaders to condemn Russia squarely over the attack in Salisbury.

“Russia staged a brazen and reckless attack against the United Kingdom,” May told reporters on arriving at the summit.

“It’s clear that the Russian threat does not respect borders and indeed the incident in Salisbury was a pattern of Russian aggression against Europe and its near neighbours.”

May accused Russia of the first known offensive use of a nerve toxin in Europe since World War Two after Sergei Skripal, a former Russian double agent, and his daughter were found unconscious on a public bench in the English city on 4 March.

In the worst crisis between the two powers since the Cold War, May has expelled 23 Russian diplomats whom she says were spies working undercover. Moscow, which has denied involvement in the attack, has taken retaliatory steps.

Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite said she was already considering expelling Russian spies from her territory.

“Britain says there are these networks that organise such things like Salisbury, that these networks exist across our borders and that it would be good to go after them together,” a senior EU diplomat said. “They have been approaching EU states on that bilaterally and today May will tell EU leaders more.”

Diplomats stressed May was not seeking a formal EU strategy.

“There is a movement among several willing states to do something together in reaction to Skripal,” said another EU diplomat, adding that this would be done bilaterally outside the EU so as not to press too hard those members of the bloc who are more worried about their ties with Moscow.

Reluctance from countries - Greece and Hungary among them - means a draft joint statement by EU leaders now says only that they take “extremely seriously” London’s assessment that it was highly likely Russia was responsible for the attack.

But May will push fellow EU leaders to blame Moscow directly for the poisoning of the Skripals who British authorities say has been critically ill since the attack by a Soviet-produced military-grade nerve agent called Novichok.

Russia’s ambassador to London, Vladimir Yakovenko, on Thursday said that, had Novichok been used, the Skripals would have died.

Yakovenko rebuked British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson for comparing Russia’s hosting of the soccer World Cup this summer with Nazi Germany’s hosting of the Olympics in 1936.

“The British government is free to make a decision about its participation in the World Cup, but nobody has the right to insult the Russian people, who defeated Nazism and lost more than 25 million people, by comparing our country to Nazi Germany,” Yakovenko said.

In Moscow, President Vladimir Putin discussed Britain’s “unfriendly and provocative” policy at a session of the national security council, RIA news agency quoted the Kremlin as saying.

European Council President Donald Tusk, who will chair the summit and has sided with Britain, said: “It is clear we should improve our preparedness for future attacks.”

He wants the bloc to discuss how to better protect itself from chemical and biological attacks, including in cooperation with NATO, as well as to how to beef up counter-intelligence capabilities to combat hybrid threats.

A British official confirmed London was seeking to work with groups of countries on intelligence-sharing over spy networks.

“Russia has shown itself as a strategic enemy, not a strategic partner,” said another British official, who stressed however that Britain was not seeking new economic sanctions.

May will stress to EU governments that all Western countries are vulnerable to such attacks. But, with the bloc traditionally split on how to handle Moscow, she will face reluctance from the Russia doves in the EU. Britain was speaking to Greece directly, diplomats said, to convince Athens.

Ties between Moscow and the West plummeted over Moscow’s 2014 annexation of Crimea from Kiev and support for rebels in east Ukraine, which have triggered sanctions by the EU.

French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and US President Donald Trump have already said in a joint statement with May that they “share” Britain’s assessment of Russian culpability.
In an annual report, the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service warns that Russia will "very likely" try to intervene in European parliamentary elections this May to undermine unity within the European Union "by sowing disorder and disbelief" within and between the 28 European Union member states.