Practical Bayesian Optimization of Objectives with Conditioning Variables

Bayesian optimization is a class of data efficient model based algorithms typically1 focused on global optimization . We consider the more general case where a user is2 faced with multiple tasks that each need to be optimized , find the global optima3 within each task , all the task conditional optima . For example given a range of4 cities with different patient distributions , we optimize the ambulance locations for5 each and every city ; given subclass partitions of CIFAR-10 , we optimize CNN6 hyperparameters for each partition . Similarity across tasks boosts optimization of7 each task in two ways : in modelling by data sharing across objectives , and also in8 acquisition by quantifying how a single point on one task can help learn the optima9 of similar tasks . For this we propose a framework for conditional optimization:10 ConBO . This can be built on top of a range of acquisition functions and we propose11 a new Hybrid Knowledge Gradient acquisition function . The resulting method is12 intuitive and theoretically grounded , either matches or significantly outperforms13 recently published works on a range of problems , and thanks to the unique nature14 of conditional optimization , is easily parallelized to collect a batch of points.15 1 Introduction16 Expensive stochastic black box functions arise in many fields such as fluid simulations [ 1 ] , engineering17 wing design [ 2 ] , and machine learning parameter tuning [ 3 ] . Bayesian optimization is a powerful set18 of tools to optimize such functions , finding the input with highest long term average performance19 x∗ = arg maxx E [ f ( x ) ] , ( the expectation represents averaging over the performance noise ) . In this20 work we consider an under-explored generalization of the standard setting previously referred to as21 “ conditional optimization '' [ 4 ] where a user has a collection of functions , or tasks , and simply seeks22 the peak of each function/task . Formally , we have an expensive black box f that takes as arguments23 both a task s ∈ S and an input x ∈ X , typically box-constrained continuous variables , and returns a24 noisy scalar performance25 f ( s , x ) : S ×X → R. ( 1 ) At each iteration an algorithm determines both task and input ( s , x ) then observes performance26 y = f ( s , x ) and the goal is to learn the input with highest average performance for each task27 x∗ ( s ) = arg max x E [ f ( s , x ) ] . ( 2 ) x∗ ( s ) is referred to as the optima conditioned on s , see Figure 1 black line . In certain applications,28 one may want to give higher priority to particular tasks hence a task weighting function W ( s ) may29 also be specified . In this work we consider the following applications.30 CNN hyperparameters : the CIFAR-10 dataset contains 10 classes , this is split into five mutually31 exclusive binary classification datasets and for each we train a CNN , each CNN is a task in S =32 Submitted to 35th Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems ( NeurIPS 2021 ) . Do not distribute . { 1 , ... , 5 } . For each CNN , we optimize dropout rates , batch size and Adam parameters , so X ⊂ R733 and f ( s , x ) is the validation accuracy . We assume all five CNNs have equal priority , W ( s ) = 1/5.34 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Ac tio n x Negative Rosenbrock Function data maxx n ( s , x ) ( s , x ) n+1 states 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 State s 0 2 4 St at e Va lu e tasks T sk Figure 1 : Top : GP model . Each task ( vertical slice ) is an objective function to maximise . A new sample ( s , x ) n+1 provides information about the optima of similar tasks . Bottom : the acquisition function value of each task using hybrid Knowledge Gradient . Ambulances in a square : [ 5 ] given a range of35 30km×30km cities , each city is a task with a36 different population centre s ∈ [ 0 , 30 ] 2 . For37 a given city , we optimize the 2D location of38 three ambulance bases , x ∈ [ 0 , 30 ] 3×2 ⊂ R6.39 Given a city s and ambulance bases x , a vir-40 tual environment randomly generates patients41 for a simulated day and the average ambulance42 journey time , f ( s , x ) , is returned . Inland cities,43 like Paris or London , with population centres44 in the middle are more common than coastal45 cities , like Singapore or Dubai , with a popula-46 tion centre on a boundary . Thus , W ( s ) mirrors47 this distribution of city centres , a Gaussian cen-48 tred at s = ( 15 , 15 ) with 7km standard deviation49 and truncated to [ 0 , 30 ] 2.50 Assemble to order : [ 6 , 7 ] a company owns51 many stock warehouses and each one faces a52 different level of demand s ∈ [ 0.5 , 1.5 ] . Equal53 priority is given to all warehouses and so W ( s ) 54 is uniform . At each warehouse , stock levels are55 controlled by setting targets of a control pol-56 icy x = [ 0 , 20 ] 8 . Given a demand level s and57 control parameters x , a simulator generates cus-58 tomer orders according to demand , the ware-59 house stock is sold and replenished according to policy x , and profit over a simulated month is60 returned as f ( s , x ) .61 The closely related multi-task Bayesian optimisation or Bayesian Quadrature optimisation methods62 [ 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 ] aim to find a single peak that maximises the weighted sum/integral over tasks , x∗ =63 arg maxx ∫ E [ f ( s , x ) ] W ( s ) ds . However , as they are fundamentally designed for a different purpose,64 we observe that they struggle to find the peak of each and every task , see experiments in Supplementary65 Material 6 ( SM 6 ) .66 Also closely related are contextual optimization algorithms [ 12 , 13 , 14 ] , conditional optimization67 has also been referred to as “ offline contextual '' [ 15 ] . In contextual applications , at iteration n the68 next task ( called context ) sn is passed from the black box to a contextual algorithm that intelligently69 determines xn . Then the black box returns both performance yn and the next task/context sn+1 . One70 could “ hotfix '' a contextual algorithm for conditional optimization problems by randomly choosing71 sn+1 ∼ P [ s ] ∝W ( s ) at each iteration . However , we empirically show that , unsurprisingly , randomly72 choosing the task in each iteration is significantly worse than intelligently choosing the task.73 Multi-fidelity and multi-information source methods [ 16 , 17 , 18 , 19 ] assume there is a single known74 constant target task s∗ ∈ S corresponding to the highest fidelity level or most expensive information75 source that must be optimized , x∗ = arg maxx E [ f ( s∗ , x ) ] . If the cost of evaluation varies across the76 function domain , c ( s , x ) , cheaper regions of the domain can be evaluated improving sample efficiency.77 Again , such methods may be hotfixed for the setting we consider by artificially designating a target78 task , e.g . the highest priority task s∗ = arg maxsW ( s ) . However , we observe that if cost is constant79 across the domain ( as is commonly assumed in the BO literature ) , these methods greedily optimise80 the artificial target task s∗ and blindly neglect all other tasks , see SM4 . This desirable behaviour in81 multi-fidelity optimization problems leads to failure in conditional optimization problems.82 To the best of our knowledge , there exist only a small number of works that propose algorithms83 specifically designed for the conditional setting.84 The Surrogate Collaborative Tuning ( SCoT ) algorithm [ 20 ] optimizes a finite set of tasks . It iteratively85 visits each task , s , in a round-robin fashion and determines the input x by expected improvement ( EI ) .86 The authors apply this to optimize the hyperparameters of an ML model for multiple datasets . The87 Profile Expected Improvement ( PEI ) and Profile Expected Quantile Improvment ( PEQI ) algorithms88 [ 21 , 4 ] consider continuous tasks and significantly improve upon SCoT by dynamically determining89 the task in each iteration . The acquisition value of a given point ( s , x ) is the expected improvement90 of a new output over the best predicted output within the same task.91 The REVI algorithm [ 22 ] at each iteration discretizes both task S and input X spaces . Given a new92 hypothetical point , ( s , x ) n+1 , for each task in the discretization , si , the discrete Knowledge Gradient93 over the X discretization quantifies how ( s , x ) n+1 will benefit task si . Summing the benefits over the94 tasks yields the acquisition value of ( s , x ) n+1 . REVI was designed to account for how all tasks can be95 optimized by each sample . However , this comes with exponential cost , increasing problem dimension96 leads to exponentially increasing discretization size with corresponding exponential space and time97 requirements . On the other hand , sparse discretizations can lead to poor and arbitrary measures98 of acquisition value . Consequently , REVI has only successfully been applied to low-dimensional99 synthetic problems.100 Most recently , the Multi-task Thompson sampling ( MTS ) method [ 15 ] uses a novel kernel with a101 length scale that varies across tasks . This is combined with a Thompson sampling method for col-102 lecting new data and showed performance improvements over REVI . However , Thompson sampling103 also does not account for how one sample provides benefit for optimizing all tasks , a fundamental104 structural property of conditional optimization.105 We propose a method that exploits the basic structure of conditional optimization while also being106 highly scalable , and therefore applicable to more challenging real-world problems . We make the107 following contributions:108 1 . A framework for conditional Bayesian optimization with theoretical guarantees : ConBO.109 2 . A new , fast global optimization method : Hybrid Knowledge Gradient.110 3 . State-of-the-art performance on open source problems including CNNs and simulators.111 2 The Conditional Bayesian Optimization Algorithm112 We first discuss the fitting of the Gaussian process model and the predicted conditional optima . We113 then motivate the acquisition value for a single task and how this is integrated over tasks yielding the114 acquisition function . Because integrating over tasks multiplies the computational burden , we propose115 Hybrid Knowledge Gradient as a solution . See Algorithm 1 in the SM 2 for a high level summary.116 At a stage after having observed n data points , { ( si , xi , yi ) } ni=1 where yi = f ( si , xi ) , a Gaussian117 process is fit over the joint space S × X to scalar outputs y . Let X̃n = ( ( s , x ) 1 , ... , ( s , x ) n ) and118 Y n = ( y1 , ... , yn ) . A Gaussian process is defined by a prior mean and prior covariance function,119 µ0 ( s , x ) , k0 ( ( s , x ) , ( s′ , x′ ) ) which are chosen for each application , for more information see [ 23 ] .120 Let the data covariance matrix be K = k0 ( X̃n , X̃n ) ∈ Rn×n , the posterior mean is given by121 µn ( s , x ) = µ0 ( s , x ) + k0 ( ( s , x ) , X̃n ) ( K + σ20I ) −1 ( Y n − µ0 ( X̃n ) ) and the posterior covariance is given by122 kn ( ( s , x ) , ( s′ , x′ ) ) = k0 ( ( s , x ) , ( s′ , x′ ) ) + k0 ( ( s , x ) , X̃n ) ( K + σ20I ) −1 k0 ( X̃n , ( s′ , x′ ) ) . At the end of data collection , in standard BO , often the peak posterior mean is returned as the123 predicted best input . Generalizing to the conditional setting we simply condition on s,124 x∗N ( s ) = arg max x µN ( s , x ) . ( 3 ) During data collection , a new data point yn+1 at ( s , x ) n+1 will update the Gaussian process over the125 whole domain S ×X . To construct an acquisition function for conditional optimization , we start126 by looking for standard acquisition functions that account for how the model changes at unsampled127 locations ( s′ , x′ ) 6= ( s , x ) n+1 . Specifically , the popular Expected improvement ( EI ) [ 24 ] and upper128 confidence bound ( UCB ) [ 25 ] methods are both functions of the mean and kernel at the sampled point129 only , i.e . of ( µn ( ( s , x ) n+1 ) , kn ( ( s , x ) n+1 , ( s , x ) n+1 ) ) , hence would require non-trivial modification130 to be able to account for how a sample affects similar tasks . Methods that do utilise the mean and131 kernel at unsampled points include Entropy search ( ES [ 26 , 27 ] and PES [ 28 ] ) that measures the132 mutual information between the new output P [ yn+1|xn+1 ] and the ( uncertain ) location of the peak133 P [ x∗|X̃n , Y n ] , Max-value entropy search ( MES ) [ 29 ] that measures mutual information between134 the new output P [ yn+1|xn+1 ] and the ( uncertain ) largest output P [ max y|X̃n , Y n ] , and Knowledge135 Gradient ( KG ) [ 30 ] that measures the expected peak of the new posterior mean E [ maxµn+1 ( x ) ] 136 caused by a new yn+1 at xn+1.137 Each single task s defines a single global optimization problem over x ∈ X . Given a proposed138 sample ( s , x ) n+1 = ( sn+1 , xn+1 ) , the acquisition benefit for task s may be computed using ES , PES,139 MES or KG . In this work we adopt KG for its Bayesian decision theoretic derivation that extends140 seamlessly to the conditional setting . For KG , the benefit for a given task is the expected increase in141 peak predicted performance within the task . We denote the task-conditioned KG as142 KGc ( s ; ( s , x ) n+1 ) = Eyn+1 [ max x′ µn+1 ( s , x′ ) | ( s , x ) n+1 ] −max x′′ µn ( s , x′′ ) . We discuss numerical evaluation of KGc ( · ) in Section 2.1 . Similar expressions for conditioned143 entropy methods , ESc ( · ) , PESc ( · ) , MESc ( · ) , are derived in SM 7 . Integrating over all tasks s yields144 the total acquisition value145 ∫ S KGc ( s ; ( s , x ) n+1 ) W ( s ) ds . ( 4 ) For discrete S the integral is replaced by summation . For continuous S , the integral over tasks s146 can not be computed analytically so we use Monte Carlo with importance sampling . When using147 a kernel that factorises k ( s , x , s′ , x′ ) = σ20kS ( s , s ′ ) kX ( x , x ′ ) , like squared exponential or Matérn,148 similarity across tasks is encoded in kS ( s , s′ ) . This naturally leads to the proposal distribution149 q ( s|sn+1 ) ∝ kS ( s , sn+1 ) . In our continuous task experiments , we use the Matérn kernel and a150 Gaussian proposal distribution with mean sn+1 and the task kernel length scales , ls , as standard151 deviations,152 q ( s|sn+1 ) ∼ N ( s|sn+1 , diag ( l2s ) ) . ( 5 ) We generate ns = 20 samples SMC = { s1 , ... , sns } , finally the acquisition function is153 ConBO ( sn+1 , xn+1 ) = ∑ si∈SMC W ( si ) q ( si|sn+1 ) KGc ( si ; ( s , x ) n+1 ) . Figure 1 shows a set of sampled tasks and the KGc ( · ) for each one . Each KG term directly measures154 increase in predicted performance for one task , e.g . if y values are dollar amounts , ConBO with155 KGc ( · ) is the sum of dollar increases over all tasks . However , for entropy based methods , ConBO156 becomes a sum of Shannon information units thereby indirectly optimizing the dollar amounts.157 The randomly sampled tasks SMC may be resampled with each call to ConBO ( s , x ) and gradients158 estimated enabling the optimal ( s , x ) n+1 to be found with a stochastic gradient ascent optimizer such159 as Adam [ 31 ] . Selecting each point according to maximising ConBO is also myopically optimal in a160 value of information framework:161 Theorem 1 Let ( s∗ , x∗ ) ∈ arg max ConBO ( s , x ) be a point chosen for sampling . ( s∗ , x∗ ) is also162 the point that maximises the myopic Value of Information , the increase in predicted performance.163 Further , in finite search space , with an infinite sampling budget all points will be sampled infinitely:164 Algorithm 1 Computing ConBO ( s , x ) . For each call with a candidate ( task , input ) point , similar tasks are sampled . For each sampled task a cheap acquisition function , hybrid KG , is evaluated . The output is the importance weighted average of hybrid KG values . Details and full numerical expressions are given in SM 3 . Require : candidate point ( s , x ) n+1 , parameters ns , nz Sample ns tasks similar to sn+1 , SMC ∼ q ( s|sn+1 ) Initialize output value Q← 0 parfor si in SMC do Initialize X̃∗i ← { } parfor j in 1 , ... , nz do zj ← Φ−1 ( ( 2j − 1 ) /2nz ) yn+1j computed with ( s , x ) n+1 and zj µn+1j ( s , x ) constructed by rank-1 update with ( s , x , yj ) n+1 x∗j ← arg maxx µ n+1 j ( si , x ) with Optimizer ( ) X̃∗i ← X̃∗i ∪ ( si , x∗j ) end parfor αi ← KGd ( X̃∗i ) Q← Q+ αiW ( si ) / q ( si|sn+1 ) end parfor return average over tasks Q/ns Theorem 2 Let S and X be finite sets and N the budget to be sequentially allocated by ConBO.165 Let n ( s , x , N ) be the number of samples allocated to a point ( s , x ) within budget N . Then for all166 ( s , x ) ∈ S ×X we have that limN→∞ n ( s , x , N ) =∞.167 The law of large numbers ensures that the algorithm learns the true expected performance for all168 points . Proofs are given in the SM 1.169 2.1 Hybrid Knowledge Gradient170 By definition , KG is more expensive than EI and UCB . Further , the function KGc ( si , ( s , x ) n+1 ) 171 must be computed once for each sampled task si , the computational cost is therefore ns times the172 global acquisition function equivalent . To alleviate this cost , we propose a novel , efficient algorithm173 for computing KG . In the following section we assume constant s for brevity , reducing to the174 global optimization setting . Given a hypothetical location xn+1 , KG quantifies the value of a new175 hypothetical observation yn+1 by the expected increase in the peak of the posterior mean176 KG ( xn+1 ) = Eyn+1 [ max x′ µn+1 ( x′ ) ∣∣xn+1 ] −max x′′ µn ( x′′ ) . ( 6 ) However , maxx′ µn+1 ( x′ ) has no explicit formula and approximations are required which we describe177 next . At time n , the next posterior mean is unknown , however , it may be written as µn+1 ( x ) =178 µn ( x ) + σ̃ ( x ; xn+1 ) Z where σ̃ ( x ; xn+1 ) is a deterministic function and the scalar Z ∼ N ( 0 , 1 ) 179 captures the randomness of yn+1 , see SM 2 . Previously , KG ( x ) has been computed in two ways.180 KG by discretization [ 30 , 32 ] : in Equation 6 , the maximizations may be performed over a discrete set of d points Xd ⊂ X . Denoting µ = µn ( Xd ) ∈ Rd and σ̃ ( xn+1 ) = σ̃ ( Xd ; xn+1 ) ∈ Rd , then KGd ( xn+1 ) = EZ [ max { µ+ σ̃ ( xn+1 ) Z } ] −maxµ . The max { µ + σ̃ ( xn+1 ) Z } is a piece-wise linear function of Z and the expectation is analytically181 tractable . The output is a lower bound of the true KG ( x ) . REVI [ 22 ] and the MiSo algorithm182 [ 17 ] used KGd with 3000 uniformly random distributed points . This method suffers the curse of183 dimensionality as Xd must grow exponentially with dimension . Further , the discretization may likely184 contain many useless points in uneventful regions of X , see Figure 2 centre-left plot.185 Hybrid Knowledge Gradient 186 KG by Monte Carlo [ 33 , 34 ] : given xn+1 , the method samples up to nz = 1000 Gaussian values187 of Z . For each Zj , construct the posterior mean , µn+1j ( x ) , find the maximum with a continuous188 numerical Optimizer ( ) like L-BFGS or CG . Averaging the maxima from all Zj yields189 KGMC ( xn+1 ) = 1 ns ∑ j Optimizer x′ ( µn+1j ( x ) ) − Optimizer x′′ ( µn ( x′′ ) ) . The result is an unbiased estimate of true KG ( x ) and scales better to higher dimensional X , the190 univariate Z is discretized by Monte Carlo samples instead of X . However , for a good estimate , nz191 must be large , many Optimizer ( ) calls are required . See Figure 2 centre right.192 We instead propose a simple mixture of the two approaches above that both scales to higher dimen-193 sional X and drastically reduces the number of Optimizer ( ) calls.194 Hybrid KG : given xn+1 , following KGMC we use nz = 5 values of Zj , construct µn+1j ( x ) and use Optimizer ( ) to find the peak location x∗j . The set of peak locations X ∗ d = { x∗1 , ... , x∗nz } is used as a dynamic optimized discretization in KGd thus analytically computing an extremely tight lower bound of the true KG ( x ) . Let µ∗ = µn ( X∗d ) and similarly for σ̃ ∗ ( xn+1 ) , Hybrid KG is given by KGh ( xn+1 ) = EZ [ maxµ∗ + σ̃∗ ( xn+1 ) Z ] −maxµ∗ . Compared to KGd , the hybrid method removes redundant points in the discretization Xd , all X∗d195 points contribute to maxµn+1 ( X∗d ) and there are far fewer points . Compared to KGMC that samples196 many Zj and optimizes many x∗j , Hybrid KG uses far fewer Zj and optimizes far fewer x ∗ j . See197 Algorithm 1 for a summary of evaluating ConBO with Hybrid KG . ConBO can be reduced to the198 REVI algorithm by replacing the dynamic importance sampled tasks with a pre-frozen discretization199 of tasks and the ( dynamic optimized ) hybrid KG with discrete KG over a pre-frozen discretization of200 inputs . These changes drastically improve scalability enabling ConBO to be applied to a far broader201 range of applications.202 To ensure asymptotic convergence , in a discrete domain , we require that the acquisition function203 is non-negative , KGh ( x ) ≥ 0 , and the acquisition function is zero where GP variance is zero,204 KGh ( x ) = 0 ⇐⇒ kn ( x , x ) = 0 . Therefore , always choosing xn+1 = arg max KGh ( x ) ensures205 only points with GP variance will be revisited until all points have no variance i.e . the true function is206 known for all points . We can ensure these properties by setting nz ≥ 2 and at least one Zj is equal to207 zero.208 Theorem 3 Let nz ≥ 2 and let Z = { Zj |j = 1 , ... , nz } . If 0 ∈ Z then KGh ( x ) ≥ 0 for all x ∈ X209 and if x is sampled infinitely often KGh ( x ) = 0.210 Proof is in the SM 1 . The Zj values can be fixed , for nz = 5 we use equal Gaussian quantiles211 Z = { Φ−1 ( 0.1 ) , Φ−1 ( 0.3 ) , . . . , Φ−1 ( 0.9 ) } where Φ ( · ) is the Gaussian CDF . Using quantile spacing212 and odd nz ensures Zj = Φ−1 ( 0.5 ) = 0 is included which satisfies the assumptions of asymptotic213 convergence . See Fig.2 ( right ) .214 The computational complexity of a single call to ConBO requires the posterior variance ( O ( n2 ) ) and215 nsnz runs of Optimizer ( ) . Let ncalls be the number of times that Optimizer ( ) calls the posterior216 mean costing O ( n ) . Thus , ConBO total complexity is O ( n2 + nncalls nsnz ) . Note this is linear in217 nsnz , the size of the ( small ) dynamic optimal discretization over S ×X . Thompson sampling with218 discretization uses one operation that scales cubically as O ( n2 ( nsnz ) + n ( nsnz ) 2 + ( nsnz ) 3 ) in219 the worst case and to reduce cost special techniques are required e.g . Fourier features , CG matrix220 inversion.221 3 Experiments222 We consider synthetic benchmarks and the three applications described in Section 1 . In SM 4 we223 also present parallelization batch sampling results , and experiments with contextual , multi-task and224 multi-fidelity methods in SM 6 . We also briefly test Hybrid KG for global optimization , SM 5 , and225 observe that KGMC performs worse in the same computation time hence we exclude KGMC methods226 from the conditional experiments . For each benchmark , for evaluation , held out test tasks are sampled227 from P [ s ] ∝W ( s ) , for each test task , stesti , the predicted optimal input is computed , x∗ ( stesti ) and228 we report the true black box output averaged over all test tasks , see SM 3 for details.229 3.1 How Accurate is Hybrid Knowledge Gradient ? 230 The theoretical Knowledge Gradient can not be analytically computed and must be approximated231 ( similarly , entropy based methods are not fully tractable ) . To illustrate the quality of the approxima-232 tions , we collected 20 points from the Rosenbrock test function and fit a Gaussian process . Another233 point was then randomly selected and true KG was estimated by the different methods , keeping the234 20 + 1 points fixed and only varying the nz parameter . Each estimate of KG was recalculated 50235 times and Table 1 shows the mean and two standard deviations . Discrete KG results in an extremely236 loose , volatile bound . The ( state of the art ) MC method with nz = 50 has a run-to-run variance of237 ±35 % , variance reduction techniques used in MC++ ( latin hypercube inverse sampling and control238 variates ) can reduce this to ±6 % . Hybrid KG with nz = 3 is extremely stable , run-to-run variance239 is too small to show , and is within the error margins of MC++ with nz = 50 which is ∼ 17× more240 expensive to compute . Increasing nz tightens the bound , hybrid KG with nz = 5 has 98.2 % of the241 value of nz = 50 . As a result , Hybrid KG is much easier to optimize , the Adam optimizer may be242 used with a much higher learning rate and lower momentum and thus converges much faster.243 As an aside , the recently proposed one-shot KG [ 34 ] enhances the optimization of KGMC . By244 freezing the Z values between calls to KGMC thus X̃∗ may be reused , this enables joint gradient245 ascent of ( xn+1 , X̃∗ ) . In the global optimization use case ( a constant single task ) one-shot KG and246 Hybrid KG can be combined . In the conditional setting , the X̃∗i of past sampled tasks may be saved,247 however each call to ConBO must sample new tasks that are not in the saved history , one-shot KG248 style joint optimization is not possible . In our implementation we utilise caching of X̃∗i from old249 tasks to heuristically warm start finding X̃∗i for new tasks , see SM 3.250 3.2 Synthetic Functions251 We perform low-dimensional toy experiments in an ideal setting as a sanity check where we expect252 all conditional methods to perform similarly . We use the popular Branin-Hoo and Rosenbrock test253 functions in 2D defining the ( task , input ) domain as displayed in Figure 1.254 Synthetic Functions Using the Rosenbrock and Branin-Hoo functions , we consider a uniform and a255 triangular task weighting W ( s ) . For baselines , we adopt two policy based methods . KNN : ( dummy256 baseline ) randomly collect data , x∗KNN ( s ) takes a task , s , and returns the best input from 10 nearest257 neighbor tasks . PG : policy gradient , a parametric quadratic policy x∗PG ( s ) = πθ ( s ) is learnt by258 maximising observed performance values , each iteration samples a task from P [ s ] ∝W ( s ) then x is259 sampled with an -greedy strategy . For a controlled ablation study , all the BO methods fit the same260 GP and for evaluation use the same definition of x∗N ( s ) ( Equation 3 ) , methods only differ by their261 data acquisition strategy . UNI : random data collection , the most recent conditional methods PEQI,262 REVI , MTS with all parameters given in SM 3 . ConBO-nz : given ( s , x ) , 20 tasks are importance263 sampled , KGh with nz = 3 , 5 points is used . EI : expected improvement that treats ( s , x ) as inputs to264 be optimized.265 Results are shown in Figure 3 . Policy based methods KNN and PG consistently perform worse than266 the Gaussian process methods . Surprisingly , the conditional BO algorithm PEQI performs similarly to267 UNI and much worse than EI . All other conditional methods outperform all non-conditional methods.268 3.3 CNN Training Hyperparameters269 We apply MTS , REVI , and ConBO variants , and we adopt the recently proposed kernel used for BO270 with Common Random Numbers [ 35 ] ,271 k ( ( s , x ) , ( s′ , x′ ) ) = σ20M ( x , x ′ ; l ) + δs′s ( σ 2 1M ( x , x ′ ; l ) + σ23 ) . where M ( x , x′ ; l ) is a Matérn 52 kernel with length scales l. The first term models a common trend272 function across all tasks and the second term models how each task independently differs from the273 trend . The differences are composed of another Matérn and the constant kernel to model a global274 offset e.g . one dataset may have universally higher validation accuracy . This kernel has far fewer275 parameters than a full multi-task product kernel , it is easy to fit and scales to an arbitrary number of276 tasks ( or datasets ) without adding extra parameters.277 In this problem setting , learning hyperparameters over similar datasets , one may expect that the278 optimal hyperparameters would be the same for all datasets . Therefore , as a baseline we apply EI279 to learn the hyperparameters of the first dataset ( task 1 ) . We then evaluate the objective function280 ( validation accuracy ) on the rest of the datasets using the best observed hyperparameters from dataset281 1 , we refer to this as EI + Transfer.282 Argument Optimization versus Data Optimization In continuous task settings , it is not possible to283 evaluate every task . In discrete task settings with large sampling budgets N |S| , a user may desire284 a single high ( although stochastic ) output value , max y , for every task . For example , in network285 hyperparameter optimization , the network with the best validation error , max y , will be deployed286 ( and the hyperparameters x may or may not be reused ) . We refer to this is data optimization ( DO ) .287 For simulated environments , the input ( or “ action '' ) that generalizes providing the best long-term288 average performance , maxx E [ f ( s , x ) ] , is deployed and we refer to this is argument optimization289 ( AO ) . Past work [ 22 ] has shown that argument optimization finds inputs that generalize better but290 may not provide optimal max y for all tasks during the optimization run . The authors propose a “ DO291 trick ” , use an AO method for N − |S| iterations , then finally allocate one sample per task with input,292 xn+1 , determined by EI within the task . We apply this trick to all algorithms in this experiment.293 Results are shown in Figure 4 . For the medium budget of 50 samples , ConBO performs best of294 the standard algorithms yet it is still worse than the EI+Tr baseline . Applying the final round of295 DO improves all results to match the baseline . For the large budget of 100 samples , all methods296 outperform the baseline suggesting dataset specific fine-tuning of hyperparameters is required to297 achieve best results . Again , DO provides a significant boost to performance for all methods.298 Gaussian process kernel parameter learning required approximately 2–5 seconds using Tensorflow . In299 Figure 4 ( right ) we show the runtime of each algorithm excluding model fitting and network training,300 purely acquisition function optimization time . MTS and ConBO-3 are quickest while Conbo-5301 increases linearly over ConBO-3 and REVI takes much longer.302 3.4 Ambulances and Warehouses303 We apply all methods from Section 3.2 to two benchmarks from the www.SimOpt.org library for304 simulation optimization problems . The ambulance problem ( AMB ) is 8-dimensional and consists of305 a range of cities and one must optimize ambulance locations for each city . The Assemble-to-order306 problem ( ATO ) is 9-dimensional consisting of a range of warehouses and one must optimize target307 stock level for each warehouse . Results are shown in Figure 5 . Of the policy based methods , PG308 performs poorly and does not show on the plots whilst KNN performs poorly on AMB and performs309 well on ATO suggesting that AMB is a more difficult problem . Of the GP based methods , EI performs310 well for smaller budgets . Although it is not a conditional algorithm we include it to highlight that311 sometimes the simplest idea can also work . Of the conditional methods , MTS , REVI , and ConBO-3312 all perform similarly , either slightly ( AMB ) or largely ( ATO ) outperforming UNI . These methods313 struggle in higher dimensions while ConBO-5 uses a more accurate acquisition function and is the314 only method that consistently performs well across all problems . We hypothesize that these problems315 are more difficult than the synthetics and CNN and truly stress test conditional algorithms.316 4 Conclusion317 Potential Limitations and Broader Impact there are multiple ways in which ConBO may fail , in318 this work we have not investigated how ConBO or Hybrid KG suffers with poorly learnt Gaussian319 process hyperparameters . In many applications , a poorly chosen kernel or unoptimized hyperparame-320 ters can lead to poor performance and our proposed methods may be more sensitive or more robust to321 these failures than alternative approaches . We propose a general purpose optimization algorithm and322 analysis , we do not currently see any immediate societal impact.323 We investigate Conditional Bayesian optimization and propose ConBO . 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[ Yes ] see Section 4426 ( c ) Did you discuss any potential negative societal impacts of your work ? [ Yes ] see Section427 4428 ( d ) Have you read the ethics review guidelines and ensured that your paper conforms to429 them ? [ Yes ] 430 2 . If you are including theoretical results ... 431 ( a ) Did you state the full set of assumptions of all theoretical results ? [ Yes ] see SM Section432 1433 ( b ) Did you include complete proofs of all theoretical results ? [ Yes ] see SM Section 1434 3 . If you ran experiments ... 435 ( a ) Did you include the code , data , and instructions needed to reproduce the main exper-436 imental results ( either in the supplemental material or as a URL ) ? [ Yes ] All code is437 submitted with the SM438 ( b ) Did you specify all the training details ( e.g. , data splits , hyperparameters , how they439 were chosen ) ? [ Yes ] all parameters for all baselines are given in SM section 3.440 ( c ) Did you report error bars ( e.g. , with respect to the random seed after running experi-441 ments multiple times ) ? [ Yes ] 442 ( d ) Did you include the total amount of compute and the type of resources used ( e.g. , type443 of GPUs , internal cluster , or cloud provider ) ? [ Yes ] SM section 3444 4 . If you are using existing assets ( e.g. , code , data , models ) or curating/releasing new assets ... 445 ( a ) If your work uses existing assets , did you cite the creators ? [ Yes ] code from Simopt.org446 is cited.447 ( b ) Did you mention the license of the assets ? [ N/A ] 448 ( c ) Did you include any new assets either in the supplemental material or as a URL ? [ Yes ] 449 the benchmark test problems.450 ( d ) Did you discuss whether and how consent was obtained from people whose data you ’ re451 using/curating ? [ N/A ] 452 ( e ) Did you discuss whether the data you are using/curating contains personally identifiable453 information or offensive content ? [ N/A ] 454 5 . If you used crowdsourcing or conducted research with human subjects ... 455 ( a ) Did you include the full text of instructions given to participants and screenshots , if456 applicable ? [ N/A ] 457 ( b ) Did you describe any potential participant risks , with links to Institutional Review458 Board ( IRB ) approvals , if applicable ? [ N/A ] 459 ( c ) Did you include the estimated hourly wage paid to participants and the total amount460 spent on participant compensation ? [ N/A ] 461

Summary: This paper presents a framework for conditional optimization, which is called ConBO. Authors also proposed a new acquisition function: hybird knowledge gradient, which is built on KG. Empirical experiments show their proposed method outperform many competing algorithms.