Existing studies of how information diffuses across social networks have thus far concentrated on analysing and recovering the spread of deterministic innovations such as URLs, hashtags, and group membership. However investigating how mentions of real-world entities appear and spread has yet to be explored, largely due to the computationally intractable nature of performing large-scale entity extraction. In this paper we present, to the best of our knowledge, one of the first pieces of work to closely examine the diffusion of named entities on social media, using Reddit as our case study platform. We first investigate how named entities can be accurately recognised and extracted from discussion posts. We then use these extracted entities to study the patterns of entity cascades and how the probability of a user adopting an entity (i.e. mentioning it) is associated with exposures to the entity. We put these pieces together by presenting a parallelised diffusion model that can forecast the probability of entity adoption, finding that the influence of adoption between users can be characterised by their prior interactions -- as opposed to whether the users propagated entity-adoptions beforehand. Our findings have important implications for researchers studying influence and language, and for community analysts who wish to understand entity-level influence dynamics.
@cite_27 predicted adoption probabilities in social networks by controlling for potential confounding, unobservable variables -- proposing a modification of expectation-maximisation to induce a Naive bayes predictive model. The authors found that social influence alone is insufficient to recover the diffusion process, and thus external factors -- that are latent -- must be countered for within any predictive model -- this was in the context of predicting the adoption of social ties. The adoption of information within a social network and its propagation was studied by @cite_3 by considering the role of temporal dynamics. The authors found that the probability of diffusion between users ( on Chinese microblogging platform Sina Weibo) reduces as a function of time from the last interaction between the users, thereby suggesting that have a strong effect in diffusion. We build time into our adaptation of 's @cite_39 general threshold diffusion model -- by comparing static and discrete time versions of adoption probabilities.
@cite_27 @cite_3 @cite_39
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In a social network, adoption probability refers to the probability that a social entity will adopt a product, service, or opinion in the foreseeable future. Such probabilities are central to fundamental issues in social network analysis, including the influence maximization problem. In practice, adoption probabilities have significant implications for applications ranging from social network-based target marketing to political campaigns, yet predicting adoption probabilities has not received sufficient research attention. Building on relevant social network theories, we identify and operationalize key factors that affect adoption decisions: social influence, structural equivalence, entity similarity, and confounding factors. We then develop the locally weighted expectation-maximization method for Naive Bayesian learning to predict adoption probabilities on the basis of these factors. The principal challenge addressed in this study is how to predict adoption probabilities in the presence of confounding factors that are generally unobserved. Using data from two large-scale social networks, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The empirical results also suggest that cascade methods primarily using social influence to predict adoption probabilities offer limited predictive power and that confounding factors are critical to adoption probability predictions. Social networks play a fundamental role in the diffusion of information. However, there are two different ways of how information reaches a person in a network. Information reaches us through connections in our social networks, as well as through the influence external out-of-network sources, like the mainstream media. While most present models of information adoption in networks assume information only passes from a node to node via the edges of the underlying network, the recent availability of massive online social media data allows us to study this process in more detail. We present a model in which information can reach a node via the links of the social network or through the influence of external sources. We then develop an efficient model parameter fitting technique and apply the model to the emergence of URL mentions in the Twitter network. Using a complete one month trace of Twitter we study how information reaches the nodes of the network. We quantify the external influences over time and describe how these influences affect the information adoption. We discover that the information tends to "jump" across the network, which can only be explained as an effect of an unobservable external influence on the network. We find that only about 71 of the information volume in Twitter can be attributed to network diffusion, and the remaining 29 is due to external events and factors outside the network. This article investigates the impact of user homophily on the social process of information diffusion in online social media. Over several decades, social scientists have been interested in the idea that similarity breeds connection: precisely known as "homophily". Homophily has been extensively studied in the social sciences and refers to the idea that users in a social system tend to bond more with ones who are similar to them than to ones who are dissimilar. The key observation is that homophily structures the ego-networks of individuals and impacts their communication behavior. It is therefore likely to effect the mechanisms in which information propagates among them. To this effect, we investigate the interplay between homophily along diverse user attributes and the information diffusion process on social media. In our approach, we first extract diffusion characteristics---corresponding to the baseline social graph as well as graphs filtered on different user attributes (e.g. location, activity). Second, we propose a Dynamic Bayesian Network based framework to predict diffusion characteristics at a future time. Third, the impact of attribute homophily is quantified by the ability of the predicted characteristics in explaining actual diffusion, and external variables, including trends in search and news. Experimental results on a large Twitter dataset demonstrate that choice of the homophilous attribute can impact the prediction of information diffusion, given a specific metric and a topic. In most cases, attribute homophily is able to explain the actual diffusion and external trends by 15-25 over cases when homophily is not considered. Social influence determines to a large extent what we adopt and when we adopt it. This is just as true in the digital domain as it is in real life, and has become of increasing importance due to the deluge of user-created content on the Internet. In this paper, we present an empirical study of user-to-user content transfer occurring in the context of a time-evolving social network in Second Life, a massively multiplayer virtual world. We identify and model social influence based on the change in adoption rate following the actions of one's friends and find that the social network plays a significant role in the adoption of content. Adoption rates quicken as the number of friends adopting increases and this effect varies with the connectivity of a particular user. We further find that sharing among friends occurs more rapidly than sharing among strangers, but that content that diffuses primarily through social influence tends to have a more limited audience. Finally, we examine the role of individuals, finding that some play a more active role in distributing content than others, but that these influencers are distinct from the early adopters.