We consider the problem of predicting winners in elections, for the case where we are given complete knowledge about all possible candidates, all possible voters (together with their preferences), but where it is uncertain either which candidates exactly register for the election or which voters cast their votes. Under reasonable assumptions, our problems reduce to counting variants of election control problems. We either give polynomial-time algorithms or prove #P-completeness results for counting variants of control by adding deleting candidates voters for Plurality, k-Approval, Approval, Condorcet, and Maximin voting rules. We consider both the general case, where voters' preferences are unrestricted, and the case where voters' preferences are single-peaked.
Another model of predicting election outcomes is that of @cite_0 . They consider a situation where each voter is undecided regarding several possible votes. That is, for each voter we are given several possible preference orders and a probability distribution over these votes. The question is, what is the probability that a designated candidate wins.
@cite_0
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We investigate the extent to which it is possible to compute the probability of a particular candidate winning an election, given imperfect information about the preferences of the electorate. We assume that for each voter, we have a probability distribution over a set of preference orderings. Thus, for each voter, we have a number of possible preference orderings - we do not know which of these orderings actually represents the preferences of the voter, but for each ordering, we know the probability that it does. For the case where the number of candidates is a constant, we are able to give a polynomial time algorithm to compute the probability that a given candidate will win. We present experimental results obtained with an implementation of the algorithm, illustrating how the [email protected]?s performance in practice is better than its predicted theoretical bound. However, when the number of candidates is not bounded, we prove that the problem becomes #P-hard for the Plurality, k-approval, Borda, Copeland, and Bucklin voting rules. We further show that even evaluating if a candidate has any chance of winning is NP-complete for the Plurality voting rule in the case where voters may have different weights. With unweighted voters, we give a polynomial algorithm for Plurality, and show that the problem is hard for many other voting rules. Finally, we give a Monte Carlo approximation algorithm for computing the probability of a candidate winning in any settings, with an error that is as small as desired. Voting is a way to aggregate individual voters' preferences. Traditionally a voter's preference is represented by a total order on the set of candidates. However, sometimes one may not have complete information about a voter's preference, and in this case, can only model a voter's preference as a partial order. Given this framework, there has been work on computing the possible and necessary winners of a (partial) profile. In this paper, we take a step further, look at sets of questions to ask in order to determine the outcome of such a partial profile. Specifically, we call a set of questions a deciding set for a candidate if the outcome of the vote for the candidate is determined no matter how the questions are answered by the voters, and a possible winning (losing) set if there is a way to answer these questions to make the candidate a winner (loser) of the vote. We discuss some interesting properties about these sets of queries, prove some complexity results about them under some well-known voting rules such as plurality and Borda, and consider their application in vote elicitation. We consider approval voting elections in which each voter votes for a (possibly empty) set of candidates and the outcome consists of a set of k candidates for some parameter k, e.g., committee elections. We are interested in the min-imax approval voting rule in which the outcome represents a compromise among the voters, in the sense that the maximum distance between the preference of any voter and the outcome is as small as possible. This voting rule has two main drawbacks. First, computing an outcome that minimizes the maximum distance is computationally hard. Furthermore, any algorithm that always returns such an outcome provides incentives to voters to misreport their true preferences. In order to circumvent these drawbacks, we consider approximation algorithms, i.e., algorithms that produce an outcome that approximates the minimax distance for any given instance. Such algorithms can be considered as alternative voting rules. We present a polynomial-time 2-approximation algorithm that uses a natural linear programming relaxation for the underlying optimization problem and deterministically rounds the fractional solution in order to compute the outcome; this result improves upon the previously best known algorithm that has an approximation ratio of 3. We are furthermore interested in approximation algorithms that are resistant to manipulation by (coalitions of) voters, i.e., algorithms that do not motivate voters to misreport their true preferences in order to improve their distance from the outcome. We complement previous results in the literature with new upper and lower bounds on strategyproof and group-strategyproof algorithms. A possible winner of an election is a candidate that has, in some kind of incomplete-information election, the possibility to win in a complete extension of the election. The first type of problem we study is the Possible co-Winner with respect to the Addition of New Candidates (PcWNA) problem, which asks, given an election with strict preferences over the candidates, is it possible to make a designated candidate win the election by adding a limited number of new candidates to the election? In the case of unweighted voters we show NP-completeness of PcWNA for a broad class of pure scoring rules. We will also briefly study the case of weighted voters. The second type of possible winner problem we study is Possible Winner co-Winner under Uncertain Voting System (PWUVS and PcWUVS). Here, uncertainty is present not in the votes but in the election rule itself. For example, PcWUVS is the problem of whether, given a set C of candidates, a list of votes over C, a distinguished candidate c ∈ C, and a class of election rules, there is at least one election rule from this class under which c wins the election. We study these two problems for a class of systems based on approval voting, the family of Copelandα elections, and a certain class of scoring rules. Our main result is that it is NP-complete to determine whether there is a scoring vector that makes c win the election, if we restrict the set of possible scoring vectors for an m-candidate election to those of the form (α1,..., αm−4, x1, x2, x3, 0), with xi = 1 for at least one i ∈ 1, 2, 3 .