We propose a general approach for change-point detection in dynamic networks. The proposed method is model-free and covers a wide range of dynamic networks. The key idea behind our approach is to effectively utilize the network structure in designing change-point detection algorithms. This is done via an initial step of graphon estimation, where we propose a modified neighborhood smoothing (MNBS) algorithm for estimating the link probability matrices of a dynamic network. Based on the initial graphon estimation, we then develop a screening and thresholding algorithm for multiple change-point detection in dynamic networks. The convergence rate and consistency for the change-point detection procedure are derived as well as those for MNBS. When the number of nodes is large (e.g., exceeds the number of temporal points), our approach yields a faster convergence rate in detecting change-points comparing with an algorithm that simply employs averaged information of the dynamic network across time. Numerical experiments demonstrate robust performance of the proposed algorithm for change-point detection under various types of dynamic networks, and superior performance over existing methods is observed. A real data example is provided to illustrate the effectiveness and practical impact of the procedure.
@cite_5 proposes a novel estimator for estimating the link probability matrix @math of an undirected network by neighborhood smoothing (NBS). The essential idea consists of the following: Given an adjacent matrix @math , the link probability @math between node @math and @math is estimated by where @math is a certain set of neighboring nodes of node @math , which consists of the nodes that exhibit similar connection patterns as node @math . With a well-designed neighborhood adaptive to the network structure, the smoothing achieves an accurate estimation for @math . NBS in @cite_5 estimates @math with a single adjacency matrix @math . For a dynamic network, a sequence of adjacency matrices @math is available, which provides extra information of the network. By aggregating information from repeated observations across time, in Section , we propose a modified NBS by carefully shrinking the neighborhood size, which yields a better convergence rate in estimating the link probability matrix @math and thus an improved rate in change-point detection.
@cite_5
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The estimation of probabilities of network edges from the observed adjacency matrix has important applications to predicting missing links and network denoising. It has usually been addressed by estimating the graphon, a function that determines the matrix of edge probabilities, but this is ill-defined without strong assumptions on the network structure. Here we propose a novel computationally efficient method, based on neighborhood smoothing to estimate the expectation of the adjacency matrix directly, without making the structural assumptions that graphon estimation requires. The neighborhood smoothing method requires little tuning, has a competitive mean-squared error rate, and outperforms many benchmark methods on link prediction in simulated and real networks. For a pattern graph @math on @math nodes, we consider the problems of finding and counting the number of (not necessarily induced) copies of @math in a given large graph @math on @math nodes, as well as finding minimum weight copies in both node-weighted and edge-weighted graphs. Our results include the following: 1. The number of copies of an @math with an independent set of size @math can be computed exactly in @math time and @math space, or in @math time and @math space. (The @math notation omits @math factors.) To obtain these algorithms we provide fast algorithms for computing the permanent of a @math matrix over rings and semirings. 2. The number of copies of any @math having minimum (or maximum) node-weight (with arbitrary real weights on nodes) can be found in @math time, where @math is the matrix multiplication exponent and @math is divisible by @math . Similar results hold for other values of @math . Also, the number... We propose a new distributed algorithm based on alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) to minimize sum of locally known convex functions using communication over a network. This optimization problem emerges in many applications in distributed machine learning and statistical estimation. Our algorithm allows for a general choice of the communication weight matrix, which is used to combine the iterates at different nodes. We show that when functions are convex, both the objective function values and the feasibility violation converge with rate @math , where @math is the number of iterations. We then show that when functions are strongly convex and have Lipschitz continuous gradients, the sequence generated by our algorithm converges linearly to the optimal solution. In particular, an @math -optimal solution can be computed with @math iterations, where @math is the condition number of the problem. Our analysis highlights the effect of network and communication weights on the convergence rate through degrees of the nodes, the smallest nonzero eigenvalue, and operator norm of the communication matrix. The key to our investigation is an improved (and in a sense sharp) understanding of the survival time of the contact process on star graphs. Using these results, we show that for the contact process on Galton-Watson trees, when the offspring distribution (i) is subexponential the critical value for local survival @math and (ii) when it is geometric( @math ) we have @math , where the @math are much smaller than previous estimates. We also study the critical value @math for "prolonged persistence" on graphs with @math vertices generated by the configuration model. In the case of power law and stretched exponential distributions where it is known @math we give estimates on the rate of convergence. Physicists tell us that @math where @math is the maximum eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix. Our results show that this is not correct.