We provide a systematic study of the problem of finding the source of a rumor in a network. We model rumor spreading in a network with a variant of the popular SIR model and then construct an estimator for the rumor source. This estimator is based upon a novel topological quantity which we term . We establish that this is an ML estimator for a class of graphs. We find the following surprising threshold phenomenon: on trees which grow faster than a line, the estimator always has non-trivial detection probability, whereas on trees that grow like a line, the detection probability will go to 0 as the network grows. Simulations performed on synthetic networks such as the popular small-world and scale-free networks, and on real networks such as an internet AS network and the U.S. electric power grid network, show that the estimator either finds the source exactly or within a few hops of the true source across different network topologies. We compare rumor centrality to another common network centrality notion known as distance centrality. We prove that on trees, the rumor center and distance center are equivalent, but on general networks, they may differ. Indeed, simulations show that rumor centrality outperforms distance centrality in finding rumor sources in networks which are not tree-like.
Prior work on rumor spreading has primarily focused on viral epidemics in populations. The natural (and somewhat standard) model for viral epidemics is known as the or SIR model @cite_13 . In this model, there are three types of nodes: (i) susceptible nodes, capable of being infected; (ii) infected nodes that can spread the virus further; and (iii) recovered nodes that are cured and can no longer become infected. Research in the SIR model has focused on understanding how the structure of the network and rates of infection cure lead to large epidemics @cite_0 , @cite_25 , @cite_26 , @cite_19 . This motivated various researchers to propose network inference techniques for learning the relevant network parameters @cite_16 , @cite_10 , @cite_4 , @cite_22 , @cite_5 . However, there has been little (or no) work done on inferring the source of an epidemic.
@cite_26 @cite_4 @cite_22 @cite_10 @cite_0 @cite_19 @cite_5 @cite_16 @cite_13 @cite_25
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Abstract A two-layer susceptible-infected-recovered unaware-aware (SIR-UA) epidemic model is presented to analyze the effect of different heterogeneous networks in a population. Random, scale-free, and small-world network topologies are tested to investigate the impact of awareness on the spread of epidemics in a two-layer network with diverse combinations of degree and structure. Susceptible and infected (both unaware and aware) individuals are associated with their neighboring nodes in a social network structure with various degree distributions. In the two-layer SIR-UA epidemic model, a virtual network represents the connections that spread information, while a physical network represents the physical social interactions that spread diseases. We test various combinations of network structures in virtual or physical networks, to understand the impact of information diffusion on the spread of epidemics in a heterogeneous network structure. Then, the effects of awareness on the spread of a disease are discussed. Finally, phase diagrams are illustrated to reveal the final regions covered by an epidemic with various network parameters. We find that a disease spreads less if the virtual social network is more connected than the network of physical connections. Besides the epidemic threshold, the recently proposed viral conductance @j by [11] may be regarded as an additional characterizer of the viral robustness of a network, that measures the overall ease in which viruses can spread in a particular network. Motivated to explain observed features of the viral conductance @j in simulations [29], we have analysed this metric in depth using the N-intertwined SIS epidemic model, that upper bounds the real infection probability in any network and, hence, provides safe-side bounds on which network protection can be based. Our study here derives a few exact results for @j, a number of different lower and upper bounds for @j with variable accuracy. We also extend the theory of the N-intertwined SIS epidemic model, by deducing formal series expansions of the steady-state fraction of infected nodes for any graph and any effective infection rate, that result in a series for the viral conductance @j. Though approximate, we illustrate here that the N-intertwined SIS epidemic model is so far the only SIS model on networks that is analytically tractable, and valuable to provide first order estimates of the epidemic impact in networks. Finally, inspired by the analogy between virus spread and synchronization of coupled oscillators in a network, we propose the synchronizability as the analogue of the viral conductance. Understanding the dynamics of computer virus (malware, worm) in cyberspace is an important problem that has attracted a fair amount of attention. Early investigations for this purpose adapted biological epidemic models, and thus inherited the so-called homogeneity assumption that each node is equally connected to others. Later studies relaxed this often unrealistic homogeneity assumption, but still focused on certain power-law networks. Recently, researchers investigated epidemic models in arbitrary networks (i.e., no restrictions on network topology). However, all these models only capture push-based infection, namely that an infectious node always actively attempts to infect its neighboring nodes. Very recently, the concept of pull-based infection was introduced but was not treated rigorously. Along this line of research, the present article investigates push- and pull-based epidemic spreading dynamics in arbitrary networks, using a nonlinear dynamical systems approach. The article advances the state-of-the-art as follows: (1) It presents a more general and powerful sufficient condition (also known as epidemic threshold in the literature) under which the spreading will become stable. (2) It gives both upper and lower bounds on the global mean infection rate, regardless of the stability of the spreading. (3) It offers insights into, among other things, the estimation of the global mean infection rate through localized monitoring of a small constant number of nodes, without knowing the values of the parameters. The effect of virus spreading in a telecommunication network, where a certain curing strategy is deployed, can be captured by epidemic models. In the N-intertwined model proposed and studied in [1], [2], the probability of each node to be infected depends on the curing and infection rate of its neighbors. In this paper, we consider the case where all infection rates are equal and different values of curing rates can be deployed within a given budget, in order to minimize the overall infection of the network. We investigate this difficult optimization together with a related problem where the curing budget must be minimized within a given level of network infection. Some properties of these problems are derived and several solution algorithms are proposed. These algorithms are compared on two real world network instances, while Erdos-Renyi graphs and some special graphs such as the cycle, the star, the wheel and the complete bipartite graph are also addressed.