Sales forecasts are crucial for the E-commerce business. State-of-the-art techniques typically apply only univariate methods to make prediction for each series independently. However, due to the short nature of sales times series in E-commerce, univariate methods don't apply well. In this article, we propose a global model which outperforms state-of-the-art models on real dataset. It is achieved by using Tree Boosting Methods that exploit non-linearity and cross-series information. We also proposed a preprocessing framework to overcome the inherent difficulties in the E-commerce data. In particular, we use different schemes to limit the impact of the volatility of the data.
Recently, neural networks @cite_9 have been proposed to use cross-series information for the specific purpose of E-commerce. They adapt a Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (LSTM) architecture to treat all the series at the same time. They also separate effects of longitudinal and temporal features and seem to have a good performance. This suggests that non-linearity is important for modelling such data.
@cite_9
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Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) is a specific recurrent neural network (RNN) architecture that was designed to model temporal sequences and their long-range dependencies more accurately than conventional RNNs. In this paper, we explore LSTM RNN architectures for large scale acoustic modeling in speech recognition. We recently showed that LSTM RNNs are more effective than DNNs and conventional RNNs for acoustic modeling, considering moderately-sized models trained on a single machine. Here, we introduce the first distributed training of LSTM RNNs using asynchronous stochastic gradient descent optimization on a large cluster of machines. We show that a two-layer deep LSTM RNN where each LSTM layer has a linear recurrent projection layer can exceed state-of-the-art speech recognition performance. This architecture makes more effective use of model parameters than the others considered, converges quickly, and outperforms a deep feed forward neural network having an order of magnitude more parameters. Index Terms: Long Short-Term Memory, LSTM, recurrent neural network, RNN, speech recognition, acoustic modeling. textabstractForecasting financial time series using past observations has been a significant topic of interest. While temporal relationships in the data exist, they are difficult to analyze and predict accurately due to the non-linear trends and noise present in the series. We propose to learn these dependencies by a convolutional neural network. In particular the focus is on multivariate time series forecasting. Effectively, we use multiple financial time series as input in the neural network, thus conditioning the forecast of a time series x(t) on both its own history as well as that of a second (or third) time series y(t). Training a model on multiple stock series allows the network to exploit the correlation structure between these series so that the network can learn the market dynamics in shorter sequences of data. We show that long-term temporal dependencies in and between financial time series can be learned by means of a deep convolutional neural network based on the WaveNet model [2]. The network makes use of dilated convolutions applied to multiple time series so that the receptive field of the network is wide enough to learn both short and long-term dependencies. The architecture includes batch normalization and uses a 1 × k convolution with parametrized skip connections from the input time series as well as the time series we condition on, in this way learning long-term interdependencies in an efficient manner [1]. This improves the forecast, while at the same time limiting the requirement for a long historical price series and reducing the noise. Knowing the strong performance of CNNs on classification problems we show that they can be applied successfully to forecasting financial time series, without the need of large samples of data. We compare the performance of the WaveNet model to a state-of-the-art fully convolutional network (FCN), and an autoregressive model popular in econometrics and show that our model is much better able to learn important dependencies in between financial time series resulting in a more robust and accurate forecast. Recently, recurrent neural networks (RNNs) as powerful sequence models have re-emerged as a potential acoustic model for statistical parametric speech synthesis (SPSS). The long short-term memory (LSTM) architecture is particularly attractive because it addresses the vanishing gradient problem in standard RNNs, making them easier to train. Although recent studies have demonstrated that LSTMs can achieve significantly better performance on SPSS than deep feedforward neural networks, little is known about why. Here we attempt to answer two questions: a) why do LSTMs work well as a sequence model for SPSS; b) which component (e.g., input gate, output gate, forget gate) is most important. We present a visual analysis alongside a series of experiments, resulting in a proposal for a simplified architecture. The simplified architecture has significantly fewer parameters than an LSTM, thus reducing generation complexity considerably without degrading quality. The advantage of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) in learning dependencies between time-series data has distinguished RNNs from other deep learning models. Recently, many advances are proposed in this emerging field. However, there is a lack of comprehensive review on memory models in RNNs in the literature. This paper provides a fundamental review on RNNs and long short term memory (LSTM) model. Then, provides a surveys of recent advances in different memory enhancements and learning techniques for capturing long term dependencies in RNNs.