options: Investigate chance processes and develop, use, and evaluate probability models.

Understand independence and conditional probability and use them to interpret data.

Calculate expected values and use them to solve problems.

Summarize and describe distributions.

Investigate patterns of association in bivariate data.

Summarize, represent, and interpret data on two categorical and quantitative variables.

Draw informal comparative inferences about two populations.

Interpret linear models.

Use the rules of probability to compute probabilities of compound events in a uniform probability model.

Make inferences and justify conclusions from sample surveys, experiments, and observational studies.

Use probability to evaluate outcomes of decisions.

Develop understanding of statistical variability.

Use random sampling to draw inferences about a population.

Understand and evaluate random processes underlying statistical experiments.

Summarize, represent, and interpret data on a single count or measurement variable.
problem_activity: Activity
In this activity, each group is assigned a situation for which they will design and perform a simulation to estimate the probability. Students will give a short presentation on the methods and results of their simulation for the class after they have designed and run the simulation. Students will need to attend to precision (MP6) as well as present arguments (MP3) for the simulation method they chose. At this stage, students have experienced a large number of simulation methods and should be able to design their own to represent the situations using the appropriate tools (MP5).
Launch
Arrange students in groups of 3. Assign each group a question slip from the blackline master. Provide access to number cubes, compasses, protractors, rulers, paper bags, colored snap cubes, scissors, and coins. Give students 15 minutes for group work followed by a whole-class discussion.
Student Facing
Your teacher will give your group a paper describing a situation.
Design a simulation that you could use to estimate a probability. Show your thinking. Organize it so it can be followed by others.
Explain how you used the simulation to answer the questions posed in the situation.
Student Response
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Activity Synthesis
Ask each group to share their situation, their method of simulating the situation, and their results. Students should explain why their chosen method works to simulate the situation they were given. In particular, all important outcomes should be represented with the same probability as stated in the situation.
If all groups that have the same situation use the same simulation method, ask for ideas from the class about alternate methods that could be used for the situation.
For reference, the computed probabilities for each situation are:
\(\frac{5}{32} \approx 0.16\)
\(\frac{1}{64} \approx 0.02\)
\(\frac{59049}{100000} \approx 0.59\)
\(\frac{2072}{3125} \approx 0.66\)
\(\frac{181}{3125} \approx 0.06\)
Representation: Internalize Comprehension.
Use color and annotations to illustrate student thinking. As students show their representations of simulations and explain their reasoning, use color and annotations to scribe their thinking on a display of each problem so that it is visible for all students.
Supports accessibility for: Visual-spatial processing; Conceptual processing
Listening, Speaking: MLR8 Discussion Supports.
To help students explain why their chosen method works, provide sentence frames such as: “This simulation was designed so that . . .” and “The simulation and the actual event have the same probabilities because . . . .” As partners are sharing, encourage the listener to press for more explanation by asking: “Can you explain why the probabilities of the simulation and actual event match?” or “Is there another simulation that could provide the same probability?” This will help students practice justifying their simulation from their interpretation of the situation.
Design Principle(s): Maximize meta-awareness; Cultivate conversation


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