options: Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence in everyday language and everyday situations. For example, compare the chance of having lung cancer if you are a smoker with the chance of being a smoker if you have lung cancer.

Understand that two events A and B are independent if the probability of A and B occurring together is the product of their probabilities, and use this characterization to determine if they are independent.

Describe events as subsets of a sample space (the set of outcomes) using characteristics (or categories) of the outcomes, or as unions, intersections, or complements of other events (“or,” “and,” “not”).

Understand the conditional probability of A given B as P(A and B)/P(B), and interpret independence of A and B as saying that the conditional probability of A given B is the same as the probability of A, and the conditional probability of B given A is the same as the probability of B.

Construct and interpret two-way frequency tables of data when two categories are associated with each object being classified. Use the two-way table as a sample space to decide if events are independent and to approximate conditional probabilities. For example, collect data from a random sample of students in your school on their favorite subject among math, science, and English. Estimate the probability that a randomly selected student from your school will favor science given that the student is in tenth grade. Do the same for other subjects and compare the results.
problem_activity: Problem 1
There are four red envelopes, four blue envelopes, and four $1 bills, which will be placed in four of the eight envelopes.
Below is a tree diagram we can use to answer the questions that follow. Write in the probabilities described.
Suppose one $1 bill is placed in a blue envelope, and the three remaining $1 bills are placed in three red envelopes.
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If you choose a blue envelope, what is the probability that you will get the $1?
If you choose a red envelope, what is the probability that you will get the $1?
Problem 2
Suppose the $1 bills are redistributed among the envelopes. Two $1 bills are placed in two blue envelopes, and two $1 bills are placed in two red envelops. Record the probabilities on the tree diagram.
[IMG]
If you choose a blue envelope, what is the probability that you will get the $1?
If you choose a red envelope, what is the probability that you will get the $1?


correct_option_index: 3