options: Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence in everyday language and everyday situations. For example, compare the chance of having lung cancer if you are a smoker with the chance of being a smoker if you have lung cancer.

Construct and interpret two-way frequency tables of data when two categories are associated with each object being classified. Use the two-way table as a sample space to decide if events are independent and to approximate conditional probabilities. For example, collect data from a random sample of students in your school on their favorite subject among math, science, and English. Estimate the probability that a randomly selected student from your school will favor science given that the student is in tenth grade. Do the same for other subjects and compare the results.

Describe events as subsets of a sample space (the set of outcomes) using characteristics (or categories) of the outcomes, or as unions, intersections, or complements of other events (“or,” “and,” “not”).

Understand the conditional probability of A given B as P(A and B)/P(B), and interpret independence of A and B as saying that the conditional probability of A given B is the same as the probability of A, and the conditional probability of B given A is the same as the probability of B.

Understand that two events A and B are independent if the probability of A and B occurring together is the product of their probabilities, and use this characterization to determine if they are independent.
problem_activity: Problem 1
Each scenario on the left corresponds with a calculation on the right. Connect the scenarios and calculations and identify which features are most useful in connecting the representations:
|              Rolling once the number is an odd number or a number less than 3.              | $${P(A\space\mathrm{and}\space B) = \left({3\over6}\right)\left({1\over6}\right)}$$ |
|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|                     Rolling once and the number is an odd number or 4.                      |         $${P(A\space\mathrm{or}\space B) = {3\over6}+{2\over6}-{1\over6}}$$         |
| Rolling twice. The first roll is an odd number and the second roll is a number less than 3. | $${P(A\space\mathrm{and}\space B) = \left({3\over6}\right)\left({2\over6}\right)}$$ |
|         Rolling twice. The first roll is an odd number and the second roll is a 4.          |              $${P(A\space\mathrm{or}\space B) = {3\over6}+{1\over6}}$$              |
Problem 2
Below is a spinner with four quadrants, each labeled 1–4. Each outcome is equally likely.
[IMG]
Sam spins the spinner twice and doesn’t land on 4. What is the probability of this occurring?
Problem 3
Allison has put together a simple game. She put 6 cubes in a paper bag—3 yellow and 3 blue. Allison has determined that the rules are as follows:
Pull a cube from the bag and put it on the table.
Pull a second cube from the bag.
If the cubes are different colors, then Player A wins.
If the cubes are the same color, then Player B wins.
Is this game fair? How do you know?


correct_option_index: 2