options: Number & Operations - Fractions: students learn to understand fractions as numbers and may work with them using addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division.

Statistics & Probability: students learn to analyze and produce data distributions, and build understanding of univariate and bivariate data. They learn to interpret data, make statistical inferences, justify conclusions, understand rules of probability, and use probability to make decisions.

Modeling: students learn to choose and use appropriate mathematics and statistics to analyze real-world empirical situations, improve decisions, and report on their conclusions and the reasoning behind them.

Ratios & Proportional Relationships: students learn to recognize, describe, represent, and reason with ratios, rates, proportional relationships, and percent.

Measurement & Data: students learn to work with data and measure attributes such as time, money, length, area, and volume. They may learn to compare measurements to operations and convert between different units of measure.

Number Systems and Quantity: students learn to understand the complex number system and reason quantitatively.

Counting & Cardinality: students learn to know number names and the count sequence, count to tell the number of objects, and compare numbers.

Number & Operations in Base Ten: students learn to work with the base-ten system and build place value understanding.

Functions: students learn to define, use, and evaluate functions to model relationships between quantities.

Operations & Algebra: students learn to solve problems using algebraic thinking and operations such as addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division. They may learn to identify and explain arithmetic patterns, evaluate or manipulate numerical expressions, and reason with equations and inequalities.

Geometry: students learn to classify geometric figures by their properties, and understand and compare the relationships between them. Students develop and use formulas to compute lengths, areas, and volumes, and they use transformations to generate new shapes and compare existing ones. Geometry can be studied with and without coordinates.
problem_activity: Warm-up
The purpose of this warm-up is to engage students' intuition about likelihood of events. The following activities in this lesson continue to develop more formal ways of thinking about likelihood leading to the definition of probability in the next lesson.
Launch
Arrange students in groups of 2. Give students 2 minutes of quiet work time and time to share their response with a partner. Follow with a whole-class discussion.
Student Facing
Which is more likely to happen?
When reaching into a dark closet and pulling out one shoe from a pile of 20 pairs of shoes, you pull out a left shoe.
When listening to a playlist—which has 5 songs on it—in shuffle mode, the first song on the playlist plays first.
Student Response
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Anticipated Misconceptions
Students may think that it is required to pull out a specific shoe rather than any left shoe. Ask students to visualize the problem and determine how many left shoes are in the closet.
Activity Synthesis
The purpose of the discussion is to help students recognize their own intuition about the likelihood of an event even when prior outcomes are not available.
Have partners share responses with the class, and ask at least one student for each option for their reasoning. Give students time to discuss their reasoning until they come to an agreement.
It may be helpful to reiterate that the outcomes from these actions are not certain. It is certainly possible to do both things and draw out a right shoe and listen to the first song on the list first, but it is not very likely based on the situations.


correct_option_index: 1