options: Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams, and simulation.

Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy.

Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood. A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around 1/2 indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event.

Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and observing its long-run relative frequency, and predict the approximate relative frequency given the probability. For example, when rolling a number cube 600 times, predict that a 3 or 6 would be rolled roughly 200 times, but probably not exactly 200 times.
problem_activity: Activity
In this activity, each group is assigned a situation for which they will design and perform a simulation to estimate the probability. Students will give a short presentation on the methods and results of their simulation for the class after they have designed and run the simulation. Students will need to attend to precision (MP6) as well as present arguments (MP3) for the simulation method they chose. At this stage, students have experienced a large number of simulation methods and should be able to design their own to represent the situations using the appropriate tools (MP5).
Launch
Arrange students in groups of 3. Assign each group a question slip from the blackline master. Provide access to number cubes, compasses, protractors, rulers, paper bags, colored snap cubes, scissors, and coins. Give students 15 minutes for group work followed by a whole-class discussion.
Student Facing
Your teacher will give your group a paper describing a situation.
Design a simulation that you could use to estimate a probability. Show your thinking. Organize it so it can be followed by others.
Explain how you used the simulation to answer the questions posed in the situation.
Student Response
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Activity Synthesis
Ask each group to share their situation, their method of simulating the situation, and their results. Students should explain why their chosen method works to simulate the situation they were given. In particular, all important outcomes should be represented with the same probability as stated in the situation.
If all groups that have the same situation use the same simulation method, ask for ideas from the class about alternate methods that could be used for the situation.
For reference, the computed probabilities for each situation are:
\(\frac{5}{32} \approx 0.16\)
\(\frac{1}{64} \approx 0.02\)
\(\frac{59049}{100000} \approx 0.59\)
\(\frac{2072}{3125} \approx 0.66\)
\(\frac{181}{3125} \approx 0.06\)
Representation: Internalize Comprehension.
Use color and annotations to illustrate student thinking. As students show their representations of simulations and explain their reasoning, use color and annotations to scribe their thinking on a display of each problem so that it is visible for all students.
Supports accessibility for: Visual-spatial processing; Conceptual processing
Listening, Speaking: MLR8 Discussion Supports.
To help students explain why their chosen method works, provide sentence frames such as: “This simulation was designed so that . . .” and “The simulation and the actual event have the same probabilities because . . . .” As partners are sharing, encourage the listener to press for more explanation by asking: “Can you explain why the probabilities of the simulation and actual event match?” or “Is there another simulation that could provide the same probability?” This will help students practice justifying their simulation from their interpretation of the situation.
Design Principle(s): Maximize meta-awareness; Cultivate conversation


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