options: Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence in everyday language and everyday situations. For example, compare the chance of having lung cancer if you are a smoker with the chance of being a smoker if you have lung cancer.

Construct and interpret two-way frequency tables of data when two categories are associated with each object being classified. Use the two-way table as a sample space to decide if events are independent and to approximate conditional probabilities. For example, collect data from a random sample of students in your school on their favorite subject among math, science, and English. Estimate the probability that a randomly selected student from your school will favor science given that the student is in tenth grade. Do the same for other subjects and compare the results.

Describe events as subsets of a sample space (the set of outcomes) using characteristics (or categories) of the outcomes, or as unions, intersections, or complements of other events (“or,” “and,” “not”).

Understand the conditional probability of A given B as P(A and B)/P(B), and interpret independence of A and B as saying that the conditional probability of A given B is the same as the probability of A, and the conditional probability of B given A is the same as the probability of B.

Understand that two events A and B are independent if the probability of A and B occurring together is the product of their probabilities, and use this characterization to determine if they are independent.
problem_activity: Problem 1
Which tree diagram corresponds with which table? How do you know?
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Problem 2
In a certain population, 30% of people get a particular disease. A test was developed to determine if any given person has the disease, but it isn’t perfect.
The test has a 90% chance of accurately predicting that someone has a disease, BUT it also has a 5% chance of predicting someone has this disease who doesn’t.
Below are two models you can use to visualize this situation.
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Using the information from the problem, write in the number of people in a random sample of 2,000 who take the test for the disease and get results that are true positive, false positive, true negative, and false negative.


correct_option_index: 3

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