options: Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams, and simulation.

Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood. A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around 1/2 indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event.

Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and observing its long-run relative frequency, and predict the approximate relative frequency given the probability. For example, when rolling a number cube 600 times, predict that a 3 or 6 would be rolled roughly 200 times, but probably not exactly 200 times.

Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy.
problem_activity: Warm-up
The purpose of this warm-up is to elicit methods students are already using to organize their understanding of different outcomes. In this lesson, students are asked to use different structures to think about the outcomes of experiments that involve multiple steps, so this activity should give you an idea of how students are approaching the problem on their own.
Launch
Arrange students in groups of 2. Tell students they should organize their work so it can be understood by others. Give students 1 minute of quiet think time, 3 minutes for partner discussion, and follow up with a whole-class discussion.
Student Facing
How many different meals are possible if each meal includes one main course, one side dish, and one drink?
|  main courses   | side dishes | drinks |
|-----------------|-------------|--------|
| grilled chicken |    salad    |  milk  |
| turkey sandwich | applesauce  | juice  |
|   pasta salad   |      —      | water  |
Student Response
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Activity Synthesis
Select several groups to share their methods for organizing their thoughts about the different meals that are possible.
Consider these questions for the discussion:
“How did you know you counted all of the different possible meals?”
“How did you know you didn’t repeat any meals?”


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